JCL Implementation On A Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulpa, Vyga; Karpowich, Mike; Abel, Diana; Archiable, Wes; Carson, William

2013-01-01

Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis focuses on the integration of traditionally stove-piped programmatic components (schedule, cost and risk) to establish projected resource and schedule requirements at various confidence levels and to identify programmatic cost and schedule risk drivers. SLS Program consists of multiple Prime Contractors managed by independent SLS Elements which are integrated using SE&I and Program Management. SLS further integrates with GSDO and MPCV through ESD integrated working groups.

Designing new institutions for implementing integrated disaster risk management: key elements and future directions.

PubMed

Gopalakrishnan, Chennat; Okada, Norio

2007-12-01

The goal of integrated disaster risk management is to promote an overall improvement in the quality of safety and security in a region, city or community at disaster risk. This paper presents the case for a thorough overhaul of the institutional component of integrated disaster risk management. A review of disaster management institutions in the United States indicates significant weaknesses in their ability to contribute effectively to the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Our analysis and findings identify eight key elements for the design of dynamic new disaster management institutions. Six specific approaches are suggested for incorporating the identified key elements in building new institutions that would have significant potential for enhancing the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management. We have developed a possible blueprint for effective design and construction of efficient, sustainable and functional disaster management institutions.

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seasly, Elaine; Dever, Jason; Stuban, Steven M. F.

2016-01-01

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

NEW APPROACHES IN RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESSORS TO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

EPA Science Inventory

We explore the application of novel techniques for improving and integrating risk analysis of environmental stressors to human and ecological systems. Environmental protection decisions are guided by risk assessments serving as tools to develop regulatory policy and other relate...

Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

Quantitative meta-analytic approaches for the analysis of animal toxicology and epidemiologic data in human health risk assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Often, human health risk assessments have relied on qualitative approaches for hazard identification to integrate evidence across multiple studies to conclude whether particular hazards exist. However, quantitative approaches for evidence integration, including the application o...

Evaluation of rail test frequencies using risk analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop : inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity : and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric : power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and : offsh...

Integrative Application of Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment to Environmental Impacts of Anthropogenic Pollutants at a Watershed Scale.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaodan; Yu, Shen; Ma, Hwongwen

2018-01-01

Intense human activities have led to increasing deterioration of the watershed environment via pollutant discharge, which threatens human health and ecosystem function. To meet a need of comprehensive environmental impact/risk assessment for sustainable watershed development, a biogeochemical process-based life cycle assessment and risk assessment (RA) integration for pollutants aided by geographic information system is proposed in this study. The integration is to frame a conceptual protocol of "watershed life cycle assessment (WLCA) for pollutants". The proposed WLCA protocol consists of (1) geographic and environmental characterization mapping; (2) life cycle inventory analysis; (3) integration of life-cycle impact assessment (LCIA) with RA via characterization factor of pollutant of interest; and (4) result analysis and interpretation. The WLCA protocol can visualize results of LCIA and RA spatially for the pollutants of interest, which might be useful for decision or policy makers for mitigating impacts of watershed development.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R21 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Cancer.gov

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

Secondary Analysis and Integration of Existing Data to Elucidate the Genetic Architecture of Cancer Risk and Related Outcomes, R01 | Informatics Technology for Cancer Research (ITCR)

Cancer.gov

This funding opportunity announcement (FOA) encourages applications that propose to conduct secondary data analysis and integration of existing datasets and database resources, with the ultimate aim to elucidate the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. The goal of this initiative is to address key scientific questions relevant to cancer epidemiology by supporting the analysis of existing genetic or genomic datasets, possibly in combination with environmental, outcomes, behavioral, lifestyle, and molecular profiles data.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Unmanned aircraft system sense and avoid integrity and continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamoom, Michael B.

This thesis describes new methods to guarantee safety of sense and avoid (SAA) functions for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) by evaluating integrity and continuity risks. Previous SAA efforts focused on relative safety metrics, such as risk ratios, comparing the risk of using an SAA system versus not using it. The methods in this thesis evaluate integrity and continuity risks as absolute measures of safety, as is the established practice in commercial aircraft terminal area navigation applications. The main contribution of this thesis is a derivation of a new method, based on a standard intruder relative constant velocity assumption, that uses hazard state estimates and estimate error covariances to establish (1) the integrity risk of the SAA system not detecting imminent loss of '"well clear," which is the time and distance required to maintain safe separation from intruder aircraft, and (2) the probability of false alert, the continuity risk. Another contribution is applying these integrity and continuity risk evaluation methods to set quantifiable and certifiable safety requirements on sensors. A sensitivity analysis uses this methodology to evaluate the impact of sensor errors on integrity and continuity risks. The penultimate contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation where the estimation model is refined to address realistic intruder relative linear accelerations, which goes beyond the current constant velocity standard. The final contribution is an integrity and continuity risk evaluation addressing multiple intruders. This evaluation is a new innovation-based method to determine the risk of mis-associating intruder measurements. A mis-association occurs when the SAA system incorrectly associates a measurement to the wrong intruder, causing large errors in the estimated intruder trajectories. The new methods described in this thesis can help ensure safe encounters between aircraft and enable SAA sensor certification for UAS integration into the National Airspace System.

Bridging the Engineering and Medicine Gap

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, M.; Antonsen, E.

2018-01-01

A primary challenge NASA faces is communication between the disparate entities of engineers and human system experts in life sciences. Clear communication is critical for exploration mission success from the perspective of both risk analysis and data handling. The engineering community uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to inform their own risk analysis and has extensive experience managing mission data, but does not always fully consider human systems integration (HSI). The medical community, as a part of HSI, has been working 1) to develop a suite of tools to express medical risk in quantitative terms that are relatable to the engineering approaches commonly in use, and 2) to manage and integrate HSI data with engineering data. This talk will review the development of the Integrated Medical Model as an early attempt to bridge the communication gap between the medical and engineering communities in the language of PRA. This will also address data communication between the two entities in the context of data management considerations of the Medical Data Architecture. Lessons learned from these processes will help identify important elements to consider in future communication and integration of these two groups.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

PubMed

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Using the Integrated Behavioral Model to Predict High-Risk Drinking among College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braun, Robert E.; Glassman, Tavis; Sheu, Jiunn-Jye; Dake, Joseph; Jordan, Tim; Yingling, Faith

2014-01-01

This study assessed the Integrated Behavioral Model's (IBM) utility in explaining high-risk drinking among college students. A total of 356 participants completed a four-page questionnaire based on the (IBM) theory and their drinking behavior. The results from a path analysis revealed three significant constructs (p<0.05) which predicted…

A quantitative flood risk analysis methodology for urban areas with integration of social research data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escuder-Bueno, I.; Castillo-Rodríguez, J. T.; Zechner, S.; Jöbstl, C.; Perales-Momparler, S.; Petaccia, G.

2012-09-01

Risk analysis has become a top priority for authorities and stakeholders in many European countries, with the aim of reducing flooding risk, considering the population's needs and improving risk awareness. Within this context, two methodological pieces have been developed in the period 2009-2011 within the SUFRI project (Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management with non-structural measures to cope with the residual risk, 2nd ERA-Net CRUE Funding Initiative). First, the "SUFRI Methodology for pluvial and river flooding risk assessment in urban areas to inform decision-making" provides a comprehensive and quantitative tool for flood risk analysis. Second, the "Methodology for investigation of risk awareness of the population concerned" presents the basis to estimate current risk from a social perspective and identify tendencies in the way floods are understood by citizens. Outcomes of both methods are integrated in this paper with the aim of informing decision making on non-structural protection measures. The results of two case studies are shown to illustrate practical applications of this developed approach. The main advantage of applying the methodology herein presented consists in providing a quantitative estimation of flooding risk before and after investing in non-structural risk mitigation measures. It can be of great interest for decision makers as it provides rational and solid information.

SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

PubMed

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more effective risk evaluation and consideration of the risks and benefits associated with the use of chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do we see how they perceive risk? An integrated analysis of risk perception and its effect on workplace safety behavior.

PubMed

Xia, Nini; Wang, Xueqing; Griffin, Mark A; Wu, Chunlin; Liu, Bingsheng

2017-09-01

While risk perception is a key factor influencing safety behavior, the academia lacks specific attention to the ways that workers perceive risk, and thus little is known about the mechanisms through which different risk perceptions influence safety behavior. Most previous research in the workplace safety domain argues that people tend to perceive risk based on rational formulations of risk criticality. However, individuals' emotions can be also useful in understanding their perceptions. Therefore, this research employs an integrated analysis concerning the rational and emotional perspectives. Specifically, it was expected that the identified three rational ways of perceiving risk, i.e., perceived probability, severity, and negative utility, would influence the direct emotional risk perception. Furthermore, these four risk perceptions were all expected to positively but differently influence safety behavior. The hypotheses were tested using a sample of 120 construction workers. It was found that all the three rational risk perceptions significantly influenced workers' direct perception of risk that is mainly based on emotions. Furthermore, safety behavior among workers relied mainly on emotional perception but not rational calculations of risk. This research contributes to workplace safety research by highlighting the importance of integrating the emotional assessment of risk, especially when workers' risk perception and behavior are concerned. Suggested avenues for improving safety behavior through improvement in risk perception include being aware of the possibility of different ways of perceiving risk, promoting experience sharing and accident simulation, and uncovering risk information. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Building electronic forms for elderly program: integrated care model for high risk elders in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yiu, Rex; Fung, Vicky; Szeto, Karen; Hung, Veronica; Siu, Ricky; Lam, Johnny; Lai, Daniel; Maw, Christina; Cheung, Adah; Shea, Raman; Choy, Anna

2013-01-01

In Hong Kong, elderly patients discharged from hospital are at high risk of unplanned readmission. The Integrated Care Model (ICM) program is introduced to provide continuous and coordinated care for high risk elders from hospital to community to prevent unplanned readmission. A multidisciplinary working group was set up to address the requirements on developing the electronic forms for ICM program. Six (6) forms were developed. These forms can support ICM service delivery for the high risk elders, clinical documentation, statistical analysis and information sharing.

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

Integrating medical devices in the operating room using service-oriented architectures.

PubMed

Ibach, Bastian; Benzko, Julia; Schlichting, Stefan; Zimolong, Andreas; Radermacher, Klaus

2012-08-01

Abstract With the increasing documentation requirements and communication capabilities of medical devices in the operating room, the integration and modular networking of these devices have become more and more important. Commercial integrated operating room systems are mainly proprietary developments using usually proprietary communication standards and interfaces, which reduce the possibility of integrating devices from different vendors. To overcome these limitations, there is a need for an open standardized architecture that is based on standard protocols and interfaces enabling the integration of devices from different vendors based on heterogeneous software and hardware components. Starting with an analysis of the requirements for device integration in the operating room and the techniques used for integrating devices in other industrial domains, a new concept for an integration architecture for the operating room based on the paradigm of a service-oriented architecture is developed. Standardized communication protocols and interface descriptions are used. As risk management is an important factor in the field of medical engineering, a risk analysis of the developed concept has been carried out and the first prototypes have been implemented.

The quandaries and promise of risk management: a scientist's perspective on integration of science and management.

Treesearch

B.G. Marcot

2007-01-01

This paper briefly lists constraints and problems of traditional approaches to natural resource risk analysis and risk management. Such problems include disparate definitions of risk, multiple and conflicting objectives and decisions, conflicting interpretations of uncertainty, and failure of articulating decision criteria, risk attitudes, modeling assumptions, and...

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

Project Recon

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-14

Management tool • Current Risk Recon functionality • Issues Recon & Opportunity Recon – Launching Fall 2012 • FMEA and Lessons Learned – Planned Future...Lessons learned UNCLASSIFIED Integrated Risk Management FMEA Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Risk Recon Fields from FMEA software pre...populate Risk Info sheet. Risk Mitigation from Risk Recon trace back and populate FMEA , new RPN numbers. Issues Recon When a risk becomes an issue

Naval Ship Maintenance: An Analysis of the Dutch Shipbuilding Industry using the Knowledge Value Added, Systems Dynamics, and Integrated Risk Management Methodologies

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

and Integrated Risk Management Methodologies 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e...supply chains, risk management with real options, and sustainability . [dnford@nps.edu] Thomas J. Housel—Housel specializes in valuing intellectual...maintenance services for the RDN. Damen Schelde has used an ILS since 2002 to manage the shipbuilding process from project initiation through the

Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

2010-01-01

A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

Constellation Program (CxP) Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Project Integrated Landing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, John D.; Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Eisenman, David J.; Peer, Scott G.; Fasanella, Edward L.; Lawrence, Charles

2009-01-01

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Chief Engineer requested a risk comparison of the Integrated Landing System design developed by NASA and the design developed by Contractor- referred to as the LM 604 baseline. Based on the results of this risk comparison, the CEV Chief engineer requested that the NESC evaluate identified risks and develop strategies for their reduction or mitigation. The assessment progressed in two phases. A brief Phase I analysis was performed by the Water versus Land-Landing Team to compare the CEV Integrated Landing System proposed by the Contractor against the NASA TS-LRS001 baseline with respect to risk. A phase II effort examined the areas of critical importance to the overall landing risk, evaluating risk to the crew and to the CEV Crew Module (CM) during a nominal land-landing. The findings of the assessment are contained in this report.

Developing an Integrated, Brief Biobehavioral HIV Prevention Intervention for High-Risk Drug Users in Treatment: The Process and Outcome of Formative Research

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Roman; Altice, Frederick; Karki, Pramila; Copenhaver, Michael

2017-01-01

To date, HIV prevention efforts have largely relied on singular strategies (e.g., behavioral or biomedical approaches alone) with modest HIV risk-reduction outcomes for people who use drugs (PWUD), many of whom experience a wide range of neurocognitive impairments (NCI). We report on the process and outcome of our formative research aimed at developing an integrated biobehavioral approach that incorporates innovative strategies to address the HIV prevention and cognitive needs of high-risk PWUD in drug treatment. Our formative work involved first adapting an evidence-based behavioral intervention—guided by the Assessment–Decision–Administration–Production–Topical experts–Integration–Training–Testing model—and then combining the behavioral intervention with an evidence-based biomedical intervention for implementation among the target population. This process involved eliciting data through structured focus groups (FGs) with key stakeholders—members of the target population (n = 20) and treatment providers (n = 10). Analysis of FG data followed a thematic analysis approach utilizing several qualitative data analysis techniques, including inductive analysis and cross-case analysis. Based on all information, we integrated the adapted community-friendly health recovery program—a brief evidence-based HIV prevention behavioral intervention—with the evidence-based biomedical component [i.e., preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP)], an approach that incorporates innovative strategies to accommodate individuals with NCI. This combination approach—now called the biobehavioral community-friendly health recovery program—is designed to address HIV-related risk behaviors and PrEP uptake and adherence as experienced by many PWUD in treatment. This study provides a complete example of the process of selecting, adapting, and integrating the evidence-based interventions—taking into account both empirical evidence and input from target population members and target organization stakeholders. The resultant brief evidence-based biobehavioral approach could significantly advance primary prevention science by cost-effectively optimizing PrEP adherence and HIV risk reduction within common drug treatment settings. PMID:28553295

Measuring Risk Perception in Later Life: The Perceived Risk Scale.

PubMed

Lifshitz, Rinat; Nimrod, Galit; Bachner, Yaacov G

2016-11-01

Risk perception is a subjective assessment of the actual or potential threat to one's life or, more broadly, to one's psychological well-being. Given the various risks associated with later life, a valid and reliable integrative screening tool for assessing risk perception among the elderly is warranted. The study examined the psychometric properties and factor structure of a new integrative risk perception instrument, the Perceived Risk Scale. This eight-item measure refers to various risks simultaneously, including terror, health issues, traffic accidents, violence, and financial loss, and was developed specifically for older adults. An online survey was conducted with 306 participants aged 50 years and older. The scale was examined using exploratory factor analysis and concurrent validity testing. Factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure: later-life risks and terror risks A high percentage of explained variance, as well as internal consistency, was found for the entire scale and for both factors. Concurrent validity was supported by significant positive associations with participants' depression and negative correlations with their life satisfaction. These findings suggest that the Perceived Risk Scale is internally reliable, valid, and appropriate for evaluating risk perception in later life. The scale's potential applications are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions.

PubMed

Abimbola, Majeed; Khan, Faisal

2018-02-01

Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probability to estimate operational risk, providing a real-time risk analysis. The real-time evolving situation is considered dependent on the changing bottom-hole pressure as drilling progresses. The application of the methodology and models are demonstrated with a case study of an offshore drilling operation evolving to a blowout. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Yakov Ben-Haim; Marla Downing; Frank Sapio; Marty Siltanen

2013-01-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that...

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemm, Robert; Houser, Scott

2001-01-01

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Overview and Status of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charles, John

2004-01-01

Viewgraphs on the status and overview of the Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap (BCPR) are presented. The topics include: 1) BCPR Objectives; 2) BCPR and OBPR Program Management; 3) BCPR Disciplines & Cross-Cutting Areas; 4) Characteristics of BCPR Reference Missions; 5) Bioastronautics Timetable (notional); 6) BCPR Processes Risk Identification, Assessment, and Management; 7) Types of BCPR Risks; 8) Enabling Questions Categories; 9) Risk Mitigation Status; 10) Defining Levels of Accepted Risk; 11) BCPR Integration; 12) BCPR Implementation, Integration, and Validation; 13) BCPR Refinement Schedule; 14) Academy Review; 15) Rating Bioastronautics Risks; 16) Risk Rating Exercises; 17) Human Health Risk Assessment Criteria (examples); 18) A Recent Risk Rating Exercise; 19) Consensus Workshop Background; 20) Consensus Workshop Rating Analysis; 21) Consensus Workshop Selected Preliminary Recommendations; and 22) Access to BCPR Content.

Multimedia-modeling integration development environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelton, Mitchell A.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.

2002-09-02

There are many framework systems available; however, the purpose of the framework presented here is to capitalize on the successes of the Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) and Multi-media Multi-pathway Multi-receptor Risk Assessment (3MRA) methodology as applied to the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule (HWIR) while focusing on the development of software tools to simplify the module developer?s effort of integrating a module into the framework.

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauder, Stephen P.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

Systems toxicology: from basic research to risk assessment.

PubMed

Sturla, Shana J; Boobis, Alan R; FitzGerald, Rex E; Hoeng, Julia; Kavlock, Robert J; Schirmer, Kristin; Whelan, Maurice; Wilks, Martin F; Peitsch, Manuel C

2014-03-17

Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment.

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States

Treesearch

Jessica R. Haas; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Ongoing human development into fire-prone areas contributes to increasing wildfire risk to human life. It is critically important, therefore, to have the ability to characterize wildfire risk to populated places, and to identify geographic areas with relatively high risk. A fundamental component of wildfire risk analysis is establishing the likelihood of wildfire...

Risk and responsibility: a complex and evolving relationship.

PubMed

Kermisch, Céline

2012-03-01

This paper analyses the nature of the relationship between risk and responsibility. Since neither the concept of risk nor the concept of responsibility has an unequivocal definition, it is obvious that there is no single interpretation of their relationship. After introducing the different meanings of responsibility used in this paper, we analyse four conceptions of risk. This allows us to make their link with responsibility explicit and to determine if a shift in the connection between risk and responsibility can be outlined. (1) In the engineer's paradigm, the quantitative conception of risk does not include any concept of responsibility. Their relationship is indirect, the locus of responsibility being risk management. (2) In Mary Douglas' cultural theory, risks are constructed through the responsibilities they engage. (3) Rayner and (4) Wolff go further by integrating forms of responsibility in the definition of risk itself. Analysis of these four frameworks shows that the concepts of risk and responsibility are increasingly intertwined. This tendency is reinforced by increasing public awareness and a call for the integration of a moral dimension in risk management. Therefore, we suggest that a form of virtue-responsibility should also be integrated in the concept of risk. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Systemic Approach for Health Risk Assessment of Ambient Air Concentrations of Benzene in Petrochemical Environments: Integration of Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Network, and IRIS Toxicity Method

PubMed Central

NOVIN, Vahid; GIVEHCHI, Saeed; HOVEIDI, Hassan

2016-01-01

Background: Reliable methods are crucial to cope with uncertainties in the risk analysis process. The aim of this study is to develop an integrated approach to assessing risks of benzene in the petrochemical plant that produces benzene. We offer an integrated system to contribute imprecise variables into the health risk calculation. Methods: The project was conducted in Asaluyeh, southern Iran during the years from 2013 to 2014. Integrated method includes fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Each technique had specific computational properties. Fuzzy logic was used for estimation of absorption rate. Artificial neural networks can decrease the noise of the data so applied for prediction of benzene concentration. First, the actual exposure was calculated then it combined with Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) toxicity factors to assess real health risks. Results: High correlation between the measured and predicted benzene concentration was achieved (R2= 0.941). As for variable distribution, the best estimation of risk in a population implied 33% of workers exposed less than 1×10−5 and 67% inserted between 1.0×10−5 to 9.8×10−5 risk levels. The average estimated risk of exposure to benzene for entire work zones is equal to 2.4×10−5, ranging from 1.5×10−6 to 6.9×10−5. Conclusion: The integrated model is highly flexible as well as the rules possibly will be changed according to the necessities of the user in a different circumstance. The measured exposures can be duplicated well through proposed model and realistic risk assessment data will be produced. PMID:27957464

The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

PubMed

Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

2011-08-01

The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

Provider accountability as a driving force towards physician–hospital integration: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Trybou, Jeroen; Gemmel, Paul; Annemans, Lieven

2015-01-01

Background Hospitals and physicians lie at the heart of our health care delivery system. In general, physicians provide medical care and hospitals the resources to deliver health care. In the past two decades many countries have adopted reforms in which provider financial risk bearing is increased. By making providers financially accountable for the delivered care integrated care delivery is stimulated. Purpose To assess the evidence base supporting the relationship between provider financial risk bearing and physician–hospital integration and to identify the different types of methods used to measure physician–hospital integration to evaluate the functional value of these integrative models. Results Nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The evidence base is mixed and inconclusive. Our methodological analysis of previous research shows that previous studies have largely focused on the formal structures of physician–hospital arrangements as an indicator of physician–hospital integration. Conclusion The link between provider financial risk bearing and physician–hospital integration can at this time be supported merely on the basis of theoretical insights of agency theory rather than empirical research. Physician–hospital integration measurement has concentrated on the prevalence of contracting vehicles that enables joint bargaining in a managed care environment but without realizing integration and cooperation between hospital and physicians. Therefore, we argue that these studies fail to shed light on the impact of risk shifting on the hospital–physician relationship accurately. PMID:26034469

Integrated operations payloads/fleet analysis study extension report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1971-01-01

An analysis of the factors affecting the cost effectiveness of space shuttle operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1)payload data bank, (2) program risk analysis, (3)navigation satellite program, and (4) reusable launch systems.

Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Avionics Integration Laboratory (CAIL) Independent Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Mitchell L.; Aguilar, Michael L.; Mora, Victor D.; Regenie, Victoria A.; Ritz, William F.

2009-01-01

Two approaches were compared to the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) Avionics Integration Laboratory (CAIL) approach: the Flat-Sat and Shuttle Avionics Integration Laboratory (SAIL). The Flat-Sat and CAIL/SAIL approaches are two different tools designed to mitigate different risks. Flat-Sat approach is designed to develop a mission concept into a flight avionics system and associated ground controller. The SAIL approach is designed to aid in the flight readiness verification of the flight avionics system. The approaches are complimentary in addressing both the system development risks and mission verification risks. The following NESC team findings were identified: The CAIL assumption is that the flight subsystems will be matured for the system level verification; The Flat-Sat and SAIL approaches are two different tools designed to mitigate different risks. The following NESC team recommendation was provided: Define, document, and manage a detailed interface between the design and development (EDL and other integration labs) to the verification laboratory (CAIL).

Risk analysis of hematopoietic stem cell transplant process: failure mode, effect, and criticality analysis and hazard analysis critical control point methods integration based on guidelines to good manufacturing practice for medicinal product ANNEX 20 (February 2008).

PubMed

Gianassi, S; Bisin, S; Bindi, B; Spitaleri, I; Bambi, F

2010-01-01

The collection and handling of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) must meet high quality requirements. An integrated Quality Risk Management can help to identify and contain potential risks related to HSC production. Risk analysis techniques allow one to "weigh" identified hazards, considering the seriousness of their effects, frequency, and detectability, seeking to prevent the most harmful hazards. The Hazard Analysis Critical Point, recognized as the most appropriate technique to identify risks associated with physical, chemical, and biological hazards for cellular products, consists of classifying finished product specifications and limits of acceptability, identifying all off-specifications, defining activities that can cause them, and finally establishing both a monitoring system for each Critical Control Point and corrective actions for deviations. The severity of possible effects on patients, as well as the occurrence and detectability of critical parameters, are measured on quantitative scales (Risk Priority Number [RPN]). Risk analysis was performed with this technique on manipulation process of HPC performed at our blood center. The data analysis showed that hazards with higher values of RPN with greater impact on the process are loss of dose and tracking; technical skills of operators and manual transcription of data were the most critical parameters. Problems related to operator skills are handled by defining targeted training programs, while other critical parameters can be mitigated with the use of continuous control systems. The blood center management software was completed by a labeling system with forms designed to be in compliance with standards in force and by starting implementation of a cryopreservation management module. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Design Choices: Capture, Model, Integrate, Analyze, Simulate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.

2004-01-01

I. Designs are constructed incrementally to meet requirements and solve problems: a) Requirements types: objectives, scenarios, constraints, ilities. etc. b) Problem/issue types: risk/safety, cost/difficulty, interaction, conflict, etc. II. Capture requirements, problems and solutions: a) Collect design and analysis products and make them accessible for integration and analysis; b) Link changes in design requirements, problems and solutions; and c) Harvest design data for design models and choice structures. III. System designs are constructed by multiple groups designing interacting subsystems a) Diverse problems, choice criteria, analysis methods and point solutions. IV. Support integration and global analysis of repercussions: a) System implications of point solutions; b) Broad analysis of interactions beyond totals of mass, cost, etc.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

PubMed

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Clinical evaluation incorporating a personal genome

PubMed Central

Ashley, Euan A.; Butte, Atul J.; Wheeler, Matthew T.; Chen, Rong; Klein, Teri E.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Dudley, Joel T.; Ormond, Kelly E.; Pavlovic, Aleksandra; Hudgins, Louanne; Gong, Li; Hodges, Laura M.; Berlin, Dorit S.; Thorn, Caroline F.; Sangkuhl, Katrin; Hebert, Joan M.; Woon, Mark; Sagreiya, Hersh; Whaley, Ryan; Morgan, Alexander A.; Pushkarev, Dmitry; Neff, Norma F; Knowles, Joshua W.; Chou, Mike; Thakuria, Joseph; Rosenbaum, Abraham; Zaranek, Alexander Wait; Church, George; Greely, Henry T.; Quake, Stephen R.; Altman, Russ B.

2010-01-01

Background The cost of genomic information has fallen steeply but the path to clinical translation of risk estimates for common variants found in genome wide association studies remains unclear. Since the speed and cost of sequencing complete genomes is rapidly declining, more comprehensive means of analyzing these data in concert with rare variants for genetic risk assessment and individualisation of therapy are required. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of a complete human genome in a clinical context. Methods An individual with a family history of vascular disease and early sudden death was evaluated. Clinical assessment included risk prediction for coronary artery disease, screening for causes of sudden cardiac death, and genetic counselling. Genetic analysis included the development of novel methods for the integration of whole genome sequence data including 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and 752 copy number variations. The algorithm focused on predicting genetic risk of genes associated with known Mendelian disease, recognised drug responses, and pathogenicity for novel variants. In addition, since integration of risk ratios derived from case control studies is challenging, we estimated posterior probabilities from age and sex appropriate prior probability and likelihood ratios derived for each genotype. In addition, we developed a visualisation approach to account for gene-environment interactions and conditionally dependent risks. Findings We found increased genetic risk for myocardial infarction, type II diabetes and certain cancers. Rare variants in LPA are consistent with the family history of coronary artery disease. Pharmacogenomic analysis suggested a positive response to lipid lowering therapy, likely clopidogrel resistance, and a low initial dosing requirement for warfarin. Many variants of uncertain significance were reported. Interpretation Although challenges remain, our results suggest that whole genome sequencing can yield useful and clinically relevant information for individual patients, especially for those with a strong family history of significant disease. PMID:20435227

RISMC Toolkit and Methodology Research and Development Plan for External Hazards Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh

This report includes the description and development plan for a Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology that will evaluate multihazard risk in an integrated manner to support the operating nuclear fleet.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.; Dillon-Merrill, Robin L.; Thomas, Gretchen A.

2003-01-01

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

The integration of the risk management process with the lifecycle of medical device software.

PubMed

Pecoraro, F; Luzi, D

2014-01-01

The application of software in the Medical Device (MD) domain has become central to the improvement of diagnoses and treatments. The new European regulations that specifically address software as an important component of MD, require complex procedures to make software compliant with safety requirements, introducing thereby new challenges in the qualification and classification of MD software as well as in the performance of risk management activities. Under this perspective, the aim of this paper is to propose an integrated framework that combines the activities to be carried out by the manufacturer to develop safe software within the development lifecycle based on the regulatory requirements reported in US and European regulations as well as in the relevant standards and guidelines. A comparative analysis was carried out to identify the main issues related to the application of the current new regulations. In addition, standards and guidelines recently released to harmonise procedures for the validation of MD software have been used to define the risk management activities to be carried out by the manufacturer during the software development process. This paper highlights the main issues related to the qualification and classification of MD software, providing an analysis of the different regulations applied in Europe and the US. A model that integrates the risk management process within the software development lifecycle has been proposed too. It is based on regulatory requirements and considers software risk analysis as a central input to be managed by the manufacturer already at the initial stages of the software design, in order to prevent MD failures. Relevant changes in the process of MD development have been introduced with the recognition of software being an important component of MDs as stated in regulations and standards. This implies the performance of highly iterative processes that have to integrate the risk management in the framework of software development. It also makes it necessary to involve both medical and software engineering competences to safeguard patient and user safety.

Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

2016-07-01

Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Integrated H-G Scheme Identifying Areas for Soil Remediation and Primary Heavy Metal Contributors: A Risk Perspective.

PubMed

Zou, Bin; Jiang, Xiaolu; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Zhang, Jing; Tang, Jingwen; Sun, Guoqing

2017-03-23

Traditional sampling for soil pollution evaluation is cost intensive and has limited representativeness. Therefore, developing methods that can accurately and rapidly identify at-risk areas and the contributing pollutants is imperative for soil remediation. In this study, we propose an innovative integrated H-G scheme combining human health risk assessment and geographical detector methods that was based on geographical information system technology and validated its feasibility in a renewable resource industrial park in mainland China. With a discrete site investigation of cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), copper (Cu), mercury (Hg) and zinc (Zn) concentrations, the continuous surfaces of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk caused by these heavy metals were estimated and mapped. Source apportionment analysis using geographical detector methods further revealed that these risks were primarily attributed to As, according to the power of the determinant and its associated synergic actions with other heavy metals. Concentrations of critical As and Cd, and the associated exposed CRs are closed to the safe thresholds after remediating the risk areas identified by the integrated H-G scheme. Therefore, the integrated H-G scheme provides an effective approach to support decision-making for regional contaminated soil remediation at fine spatial resolution with limited sampling data over a large geographical extent.

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept.

PubMed

Yemshanov, Denys; Koch, Frank H; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Downing, Marla; Sapio, Frank; Siltanen, Marty

2013-09-01

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components' importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Integrating human impacts and ecological integrity into a risk-based protocol for conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, P.L.

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers-energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions-might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

Risk analysis and technology assessment in support of technology development: Putting responsible innovation in practice in a case study for nanotechnology.

PubMed

van Wezel, Annemarie P; van Lente, Harro; van de Sandt, Johannes Jm; Bouwmeester, Hans; Vandeberg, Rens Lj; Sips, Adrienne Jam

2018-01-01

Governments invest in "key enabling technologies," such as nanotechnology, to solve societal challenges and boost the economy. At the same time, governmental agencies demand risk reduction to prohibit any often unknown adverse effects, and industrial parties demand smart approaches to reduce uncertainties. Responsible research and innovation (RRI) is therefore a central theme in policy making. Risk analysis and technology assessment, together referred to as "RATA," can provide a basis to assess human, environmental, and societal risks of new technological developments during the various stages of technological development. This assessment can help both governmental authorities and innovative industry to move forward in a sustainable manner. Here we describe the developed procedures and products and our experiences to bring RATA in practice within a large Dutch nanotechnology consortium. This is an example of how to put responsible innovation in practice as an integrated part of a research program, how to increase awareness of RATA, and how to help technology developers perform and use RATA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:9-16. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabibzadeh, Maryam

According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e.g. fracking. In addition, this methodology can be applied for the analysis of any high-risk operations, in not only the oil and gas industry but also in other industries such as nuclear power plants, aviation industry, and transportation sector.

Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination: A Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach Based on DRASTIC Model

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Zhong, Ming

2013-01-01

Groundwater contamination is a serious threat to water supply. Risk assessment of groundwater contamination is an effective way to protect the safety of groundwater resource. Groundwater is a complex and fuzzy system with many uncertainties, which is impacted by different geological and hydrological factors. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the risk assessment of groundwater contamination, we propose an approach with analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation integrated together. Firstly, the risk factors of groundwater contamination are identified by the sources-pathway-receptor-consequence method, and a corresponding index system of risk assessment based on DRASTIC model is established. Due to the complexity in the process of transitions between the possible pollution risks and the uncertainties of factors, the method of analysis hierarchy process is applied to determine the weights of each factor, and the fuzzy sets theory is adopted to calculate the membership degrees of each factor. Finally, a case study is presented to illustrate and test this methodology. It is concluded that the proposed approach integrates the advantages of both analysis hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which provides a more flexible and reliable way to deal with the linguistic uncertainty and mechanism uncertainty in groundwater contamination without losing important information. PMID:24453883

Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

2012-03-01

Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

An inexpensive, temporally-integrated system for monitoring occurrence and biological effects of aquatic contaminants in the field

EPA Science Inventory

Assessment of potential ecological risks of complex contaminant mixtures in the environment requires integrated chemical and biological approaches. Instrumental analysis of environmental samples alone can identify contaminants, but provides only limited insights as to possible a...

Temporal and Dose-response Pathway Analysis for Predicting Chronic Chemical Toxicity

EPA Science Inventory

Current challenges facing chemical risk assessment are the time and resources required to meet the data standards necessary for a published assessment and the incorporation of modern biological information. The integration of toxicogenomics into the risk assessment paradigm may ...

[Management, quality of health and occupational safety and hospital organization: is integration possible?].

PubMed

Corrao, Carmela Romana Natalina

2011-01-01

The evolution of the national and European legislation has progressively transformed the working environments into organized environments. Specific models for its management are being proposed, which should be integrated into general management strategies. In the case of hospitals this integration should consider the peculiar organizational complexity, where the management of the occupational risk needs to be integrated with clinical risk management and economic risk management. Resources management should also consider that Occupational Medicine has not a direct monetary benefit for the organisation, but only indirect health consequences in terms of reduction of accidents and occupational diseases. The deep and simultaneous analysis of the current general management systems and the current management methods of occupational safety and health protection allows one to hyphotesise a possible integration between them. For both of them the Top Management is the main responsible of the quality management strategies and the use of specific documents in the managerial process, such as the document of risks evaluation in the occupational management and the quality manual in the general management, is of paramount importance. An integrated management has also the scope to pursue a particular kind of quality management, where ethics and job satisfaction are innovative, as established by recent European guidelines, management systems and national legislations.

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

2011-01-01

In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

Viewpoint on ISA TR84.0.02--simplified methods and fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Summers, A E

2000-01-01

ANSI/ISA-S84.01-1996 and IEC 61508 require the establishment of a safety integrity level for any safety instrumented system or safety related system used to mitigate risk. Each stage of design, operation, maintenance, and testing is judged against this safety integrity level. Quantitative techniques can be used to verify whether the safety integrity level is met. ISA-dTR84.0.02 is a technical report under development by ISA, which discusses how to apply quantitative analysis techniques to safety instrumented systems. This paper discusses two of those techniques: (1) Simplified equations and (2) Fault tree analysis.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes

PubMed Central

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

Background A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. Methods An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. Results the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. Conclusion The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties. PMID:26959647

Role of premission testing in the National Missile Defense system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tillman, Janice V.; Atkinson, Beverly

2001-09-01

The purpose of the National Missile Defense (NMD) system is to provide detection, discrimination, engagement, interception, and negation of ballistic missile attacks targeted at the United States (U.S.), including Alaska and Hawaii. This capability is achieved through the integration of weapons, sensors, and a battle management, command, control and communications (BMC3) system. The NMD mission includes surveillance, warning, cueing, and engagement of threat objects prior to potential impact on U.S. targets. The NMD Acquisition Strategy encompasses an integrated test program using Integrated Ground Tests (IGTs), Integrated Flight Tests (IFTs), Risk Reduction Flights (RRFs), Pre Mission Tests (PMTs), Command and Control (C2) Simulations, and other Specialty Tests. The IGTs utilize software-in-the-loop/hardware-in-the-loop (SWIL / HWIL) and digital simulations. The IFTs are conducted with targets launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) and interceptors launched from Kwajalein Missile Range (KMR). The RRFs evaluate NMD BMC3 and NMD sensor functional performance and integration by leveraging planned Peacekeeper and Minuteman III operational test flights and other opportunities without employing the NMD interceptor. The PMTs are nondestructive System-level tests representing the use of NMD Element Test Assets in their IFT configuration and are conducted to reduce risks in achieving the IFT objectives. Specifically, PMTs are used to reduce integration, interface, and performance risks associated with Flight Tests to ensure that as much as possible, the System is tested without expending a target or an interceptor. This paper examines several critical test planning and analysis functions as they relate to the NMD Integrated Flight Test program and, in particular, to Pre-Mission Testing. Topics to be discussed include: - Flight-test program planning; - Pre-Test Integration activities; and - Test Execution, Analysis, and Post-Flight Reconstruction.

Integrated risk framework for onsite wastewater treatment systems.

PubMed

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

2006-08-01

Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

2011-01-01

To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute Radiation Assessment Detector. Also, the University of Florida hybrid phantoms, which are flexible in morphometry and positioning, are being explored as alternatives to the current NASA computational phantoms.

USEPA’s Land‐Based Materials Management Exposure and Risk Assessment Tool System

EPA Science Inventory

It is recognized that some kinds of 'waste' materials can in fact be reused as input materials for making safe products that benefit society. RIMM (Risk-Informed Materials Management) provides an integrated data gathering and analysis capability to enable scientifically rigorous ...

Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

Integrating Human Factors into Space Vehicle Processing for Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodbury, Sarah; Richards, Kimberly J.

2008-01-01

This presentation will discuss the multiple projects performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance (HEMAP) Lab, improvements that resulted from analysis, and the future applications of the HEMAP Lab for risk assessment by evaluating human/machine interaction and ergonomic designs.

Application of probabilistic risk assessment: Evaluating remedial alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Ruffle, Betsy; Henderson, James; Murphy-Hagan, Clare; Kirkwood, Gemma; Wolf, Frederick; Edwards, Deborah A

2018-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the "Site"). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10 -4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10 -5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:63-78. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC). © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products: overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist.

PubMed

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-12-01

Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper summarizes current best practices and discusses the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist in these activities, taking a life-cycle approach to integrated Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE). A review of the medical and regulatory literature was performed for the following steps involved in therapeutic benefit-risk optimization: benefit-risk evidence generation; data integration and analysis; decision making; regulatory and policy decision making; benefit-risk communication and risk minimization; and evaluation. Feedback from International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology members was solicited on the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist. The case example of natalizumab is provided to illustrate the cyclic nature of the benefit-risk optimization process. No single, globally adopted benefit-risk assessment process exists. The BRACE heuristic offers a way to clarify research needs and to promote best practices in a cyclic and integrated manner and highlight the critical importance of cross-disciplinary input. Its approach focuses on the integration of BRACE activities for risk minimization and optimization of the benefit-risk profile. The activities defined in the BRACE heuristic contribute to the optimization of the benefit-risk profile of therapeutic products in the clinical world at both the patient and population health level. With interdisciplinary collaboration, pharmacoepidemiologists are well suited for bringing in methodology expertise, relevant research, and public health perspectives into the BRACE process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cyber Contingency Analysis version 1.x

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Contingency analysis based approach for quantifying and examining the resiliency of a cyber system in respect to confidentiality, integrity and availability. A graph representing an organization's cyber system and related resources is used for the availability contingency analysis. The mission critical paths associated with an organization are used to determine the consequences of a potential contingency. A node (or combination of nodes) are removed from the graph to analyze a particular contingency. The value of all mission critical paths that are disrupted by that contingency are used to quantify its severity. A total severity score can be calculated based onmore » the complete list of all these contingencies. A simple n1 analysis can be done in which only one node is removed at a time for the analysis. We can also compute nk analysis, where k is the number of nodes to simultaneously remove for analysis. A contingency risk score can also be computed, which takes the probability of the contingencies into account. In addition to availability, we can also quantify confidentiality and integrity scores for the system. These treat user accounts as potential contingencies. The amount (and type) of files that an account can read to is used to compute the confidentiality score. The amount (and type) of files that an account can write to is used to compute the integrity score. As with availability analysis, we can use this information to compute total severity scores in regards to confidentiality and integrity. We can also take probability into account to compute associated risk scores.« less

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

VISMapper: ultra-fast exhaustive cartography of viral insertion sites for gene therapy.

PubMed

Juanes, José M; Gallego, Asunción; Tárraga, Joaquín; Chaves, Felipe J; Marín-Garcia, Pablo; Medina, Ignacio; Arnau, Vicente; Dopazo, Joaquín

2017-09-20

The possibility of integrating viral vectors to become a persistent part of the host genome makes them a crucial element of clinical gene therapy. However, viral integration has associated risks, such as the unintentional activation of oncogenes that can result in cancer. Therefore, the analysis of integration sites of retroviral vectors is a crucial step in developing safer vectors for therapeutic use. Here we present VISMapper, a vector integration site analysis web server, to analyze next-generation sequencing data for retroviral vector integration sites. VISMapper can be found at: http://vismapper.babelomics.org . Because it uses novel mapping algorithms VISMapper is remarkably faster than previous available programs. It also provides a useful graphical interface to analyze the integration sites found in the genomic context.

Value-driven ERM: making ERM an engine for simultaneous value creation and value protection.

PubMed

Celona, John; Driver, Jeffrey; Hall, Edward

2011-01-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) began as an effort to integrate the historically disparate silos of risk management in organizations. More recently, as recognition has grown of the need to cover the upside risks in value creation (financial and otherwise), organizations and practitioners have been searching for the means to do this. Existing tools such as heat maps and risk registers are not adequate for this task. Instead, a conceptually new value-driven framework is needed to realize the promise of enterprise-wide coverage of all risks, for both value protection and value creation. The methodology of decision analysis provides the means of capturing systemic, correlated, and value-creation risks on the same basis as value protection risks and has been integrated into the value-driven approach to ERM described in this article. Stanford Hospital and Clinics Risk Consulting and Strategic Decisions Group have been working to apply this value-driven ERM at Stanford University Medical Center. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

HUMAN AND ECOLOIGCAL RISK: CORRELATIONS AMONG HUMAN HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIORNMENTAL MONITORING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

While all life is affected by the quality of the environment, environmental risk factors for human and wildlife health are typically assessed using independent processes that are dissimilar in scale and scope. However, the integrated analysis of human, ecological, and environmen...

HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ASSOCIATIONS AMONG HUMAN HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL, AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING

EPA Science Inventory

While all life is affected by the quality of the environment, environmental risk factors for human and wildlife health are typically assessed using independent processes that are dissimilar in scale and scope. However, the integrated analysis of human, ecological, and environmen...

HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK: CORRELATIONS AMONG HUMAN HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

While all life is affected by the quality of the environment, environmental risk factors for human and wildlife health are typically assessed using independent processes that are dissimilar in scale and scope. However, the integrated analysis of human, ecological, and environmen...

HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ASSOCIATIONS AMONG HUMAN HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

While all life is affected by the quality of the environment, environmental risk factors for human and wildlife health are typically assessed using independent processes that are dissimilar in scale and scope. However, the integrated analysis of human, ecological, and environmen...

HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ASSOCIATIONS AMONH HUMAN HEALTH, ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DATA

EPA Science Inventory

While all life is affected by the quality of the environment, environmental risk factors for human and wildlife health are typically assessed using independent processes that are dissimilar in scale and scope. However, the integrated analysis of human, ecological, and environmen...

Assessing the multidimensionality of coastal erosion risks: public participation and multicriteria analysis in a Mediterranean coastal system.

PubMed

Roca, Elisabet; Gamboa, Gonzalo; Tàbara, J David

2008-04-01

The complex and multidimensional nature of coastal erosion risks makes it necessary to move away from single-perspective assessment and management methods that have conventionally predominated in coastal management. This article explores the suitability of participatory multicriteria analysis (MCA) for improving the integration of diverse expertises and values and enhancing the social-ecological robustness of the processes that lead to the definition of relevant policy options to deal with those risks. We test this approach in the Mediterranean coastal locality of Lido de Sète in France. Results show that the more adaptive alternatives such as "retreating the shoreline" were preferred by our selected stakeholders to those corresponding to "protecting the shoreline" and the business as usual proposals traditionally put forward by experts and policymakers on these matters. Participative MCA contributed to represent coastal multidimensionality, elicit and integrate different views and preferences, facilitated knowledge exchange, and allowed highlighting existing uncertainties.

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Preventing Adolescent Risk Behavior in the Rural Context: An Integrative Analysis of Adolescent, Parent, and Provider Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rishel, Carrie W.; Cottrell, Lesley; Kingery, Tricia

2012-01-01

Adolescent risk behavior remains prevalent and contributes to numerous social problems and growing health care costs. Contrary to popular perception, adolescents in rural areas engage in risky behaviors at least as much as youth from urban or suburban settings. Little research, however, focuses on risk behavior prevention in the rural context.…

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

2013-01-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

An integrated tool to support engineers for WMSDs risk assessment during the assembly line balancing.

PubMed

Di Benedetto, Raffaele; Fanti, Michele

2012-01-01

This paper wants to present an integrated approach to Line Balancing and Risk Assessment and a Software Tool named ErgoAnalysis that makes it easy to control the whole production process and produces a Risk Index for the actual work tasks in an Assembly Line. Assembly Line Balancing, or simply Line Balancing, is the problem of assigning operations to workstations along an assembly line, in such a way that the assignment be optimal in some sense. Assembly lines are characterized by production constraints and restrictions due to several aspects such as the nature of the product and the flow of orders. To be able to respond effectively to the needs of production, companies need to frequently change the workload and production models. Each manufacturing process might be quite different from another. To optimize very specific operations, assembly line balancing might utilize a number of methods and the Engineer must consider ergonomic constraints, in order to reduce the risk of WMDSs. Risk Assessment may result very expensive because the Engineer must evaluate it at every change. ErgoAnalysis can reduce cost and improve effectiveness in Risk Assessment during the Line Balancing.

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

Applicability of a neuroprobabilistic integral risk index for the environmental management of polluted areas: a case study.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2008-04-01

Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Risk Factors for Predicting Occult Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Clinical Stage I Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Staged by Integrated Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Kaseda, Kaoru; Asakura, Keisuke; Kazama, Akio; Ozawa, Yukihiko

2016-12-01

Lymph nodes in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are often staged using integrated 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT). However, this modality has limited ability to detect micrometastases. We aimed to define risk factors for occult lymph node metastasis in patients with clinical stage I NSCLC diagnosed by preoperative integrated FDG-PET/CT. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 246 patients diagnosed with clinical stage I NSCLC based on integrated FDG-PET/CT between April 2007 and May 2015. All patients were treated by complete surgical resection. The prevalence of occult lymph node metastasis in patients with clinical stage I NSCLC was analysed according to clinicopathological factors. Risk factors for occult lymph node metastasis were defined using univariate and multivariate analyses. Occult lymph node metastasis was detected in 31 patients (12.6 %). Univariate analysis revealed CEA (P = 0.04), SUV max of the primary tumour (P = 0.031), adenocarcinoma (P = 0.023), tumour size (P = 0.002) and pleural invasion (P = 0.046) as significant predictors of occult lymph node metastasis. Multivariate analysis selected SUV max of the primary tumour (P = 0.049), adenocarcinoma (P = 0.003) and tumour size (P = 0.019) as independent predictors of occult lymph node metastasis. The SUV max of the primary tumour, adenocarcinoma and tumour size were risk factors for occult lymph node metastasis in patients with NSCLC diagnosed as clinical stage I by preoperative integrated FDG-PET/CT. These findings would be helpful in selecting candidates for mediastinoscopy or endobronchial ultrasound-guided transbronchial needle aspiration.

Culturally Sensitive Risk Behavior Prevention Programs for African American Adolescents: A Systematic Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Metzger, Isha; Cooper, Shauna M.; Zarrett, Nicole; Flory, Kate

2013-01-01

The current review conducted a systematic assessment of culturally sensitive risk prevention programs for African American adolescents. Prevention programs meeting the inclusion and exclusion criteria were evaluated across several domains: (1) theoretical orientation and foundation; (2) methodological rigor; (3) level of cultural integration; (4)…

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

A pilot application of regional scale risk assessment to the forestry management of the upper Grand Ronde watershed, Oregon

Treesearch

Suzanne M. Anderson; Wayne G. Landis

2012-01-01

An issue in forestry management has been the integration of a variety of different information into a threat analysis or risk assessment. In this instance, regional scale risk assessment was applied to the Upper Grande Ronde watershed in eastern Oregon to examine the potential of risk assessment for use in the management of broad landscapes. The site was a focus of...

Integrative Therapies for Women with a High Risk Pregnancy During Antepartum Hospitalization.

PubMed

Schlegel, Merry L; Whalen, Jeanne L; Williamsen, Pilar M

High-risk pregnancies that require lengthy hospitalization can cause anxiety and stress for pregnant women. Integrative medicine therapies may be beneficial for this population, but have not been widely studied. The purpose of this study was to evaluate potential effects of acupuncture, guided imagery, Healing Touch, massage therapy, and reflexology on pain and anxiety of hospitalized pregnant women. A retrospective analysis of the effects of integrative medicine therapies was conducted; N = 554 individual therapies were provided to hospitalized women with high-risk pregnancies. They included acupuncture (n = 83), guided imagery (n = 71), Healing Touch (n = 119), massage therapy (n = 196), and reflexology (n = 85) over an 18-month period. Pain and anxiety were measured pre- and posttherapy using a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 means no pain or no anxiety and 10 means high pain or high anxiety. Analysis of mean scores of pre- and posttherapies for pain and anxiety found a decrease of pain and anxiety after all of the therapies, ranging from an 84.5% to 61.4% decrease for pain (p < .0001) and a 91% to 70. 9% decrease for anxiety (p < .0001). Overall, patients rated their anxiety higher than pain prior to each therapy. Hospitalized pregnant women responded favorably to the therapies. There were no adverse reactions reported. Results suggest potential benefits of integrative medicine therapies for this group of inpatients. Anxiety was more prevalent than pain among hospitalized pregnant women who received integrative medicine therapy.

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

PubMed

Flueckiger, Peter; Longstreth, Will; Herrington, David; Yeboah, Joseph

2018-02-01

Limited data exist on the performance of the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) and the R-FSRS in conjunction with nontraditional risk markers. We compared the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and the Pooled Cohort Equation for stroke prediction and assessed the improvement in discrimination by nontraditional risk markers. Six thousand seven hundred twelve of 6814 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included. Cox proportional hazard, area under the curve, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination increment analysis were used to assess and compare each stroke prediction risk score. Stroke was defined as fatal/nonfatal strokes (hemorrhagic or ischemic). After mean follow-up of 10.7 years, 231 of 6712 (3.4%) strokes were adjudicated (2.7% ischemic strokes). Mean stroke risks using the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and Pooled Cohort Equation were 4.7%, 5.9%, and 13.5%. The R-FSRS had the best calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, χ 2 =6.55; P =0.59). All risk scores were predictive of incident stroke. C statistics of R-FSRS (0.716) was similar to Pooled Cohort Equation (0.716), but significantly higher than the original FSRS (0.653; P =0.01 for comparison with R-FSRS). Adding nontraditional risk markers individually to the R-FSRS did not improve discrimination of the R-FSRS in the area under the curve analysis, but did improve category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination increment for incident stroke. The addition of coronary artery calcium to R-FSRS produced the highest category-less net reclassification improvement (0.36) and integrated discrimination increment (0.0027). Similar results were obtained when ischemic strokes were used as the outcome. The R-FSRS downgraded stroke risk but had better calibration and discriminative ability for incident stroke compared with the original FSRS. Nontraditional risk markers modestly improved the discriminative ability of the R-FSRS, with coronary artery calcium performing the best. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Human factors considerations for the integration of unmanned aerial vehicles in the National Airspace System : an analysis of reports submitted to the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-06

Successful integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations into the National Airspace System requires the identification and mitigation of operational risks. This report reviews human factors issues that have been identified in operational as...

Trades Between Opposition and Conjunction Class Trajectories for Early Human Missions to Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattfeld, Bryan; Stromgren, Chel; Shyface, Hilary; Komar, David R.; Cirillo, William; Goodliff, Kandyce

2014-01-01

Candidate human missions to Mars, including NASA's Design Reference Architecture 5.0, have focused on conjunction-class missions with long crewed durations and minimum energy trajectories to reduce total propellant requirements and total launch mass. However, in order to progressively reduce risk and gain experience in interplanetary mission operations, it may be desirable that initial human missions to Mars, whether to the surface or to Mars orbit, have shorter total crewed durations and minimal stay times at the destination. Opposition-class missions require larger total energy requirements relative to conjunction-class missions but offer the potential for much shorter mission durations, potentially reducing risk and overall systems performance requirements. This paper will present a detailed comparison of conjunction-class and opposition-class human missions to Mars vicinity with a focus on how such missions could be integrated into the initial phases of a Mars exploration campaign. The paper will present the results of a trade study that integrates trajectory/propellant analysis, element design, logistics and sparing analysis, and risk assessment to produce a comprehensive comparison of opposition and conjunction exploration mission constructs. Included in the trade study is an assessment of the risk to the crew and the trade offs between the mission duration and element, logistics, and spares mass. The analysis of the mission trade space was conducted using four simulation and analysis tools developed by NASA. Trajectory analyses for Mars destination missions were conducted using VISITOR (Versatile ImpulSive Interplanetary Trajectory OptimizeR), an in-house tool developed by NASA Langley Research Center. Architecture elements were evaluated using EXploration Architecture Model for IN-space and Earth-to-orbit (EXAMINE), a parametric modeling tool that generates exploration architectures through an integrated systems model. Logistics analysis was conducted using NASA's Human Exploration Logistics Model (HELM), and sparing allocation predictions were generated via the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT), which is a probabilistic simulation engine that evaluates trades in spacecraft reliability and sparing requirements based on spacecraft system maintainability and reparability.

Air Vehicle Integration and Technology Research (AVIATR). Task Order 0003: Condition-Based Maintenance Plus Structural Integrity (CBM+SI) Demonstration (April 2011 to August 2011)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

investigated. Implementation of this technology into the maintenance framework depends on several factors, including safety of the structural system, cost... Maintenance Parameters The F-15 Program has indicated that, in practice , maintenance actions are generally performed on flight hour multiples of 200...Risk Analysis or the Perform Cost Benefit Analysis sections of the flowchart. 4.6. Determine System Configurations The current maintenance practice

Risk/Requirements Trade-off Guidelines for Low Cost Satellite Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Man, Kin F.

1996-01-01

The accelerating trend toward faster, better, cheaper missions places increasing emphasis on the trade-offs between requirements and risk to reduce cost and development times, while still improving quality and reliability. The Risk/Requirement Trade-off Guidelines discussed in this paper are part of an integrated approach to address the main issues by focusing on the sum of prevention, analysis, control, or test (PACT) processes.

Marital status integration and suicide: A meta-analysis and meta-regression.

PubMed

Kyung-Sook, Woo; SangSoo, Shin; Sangjin, Shin; Young-Jeon, Shin

2018-01-01

Marital status is an index of the phenomenon of social integration within social structures and has long been identified as an important predictor suicide. However, previous meta-analyses have focused only on a particular marital status, or not sufficiently explored moderators. A meta-analysis of observational studies was conducted to explore the relationships between marital status and suicide and to understand the important moderating factors in this association. Electronic databases were searched to identify studies conducted between January 1, 2000 and June 30, 2016. We performed a meta-analysis, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression of 170 suicide risk estimates from 36 publications. Using random effects model with adjustment for covariates, the study found that the suicide risk for non-married versus married was OR = 1.92 (95% CI: 1.75-2.12). The suicide risk was higher for non-married individuals aged <65 years than for those aged ≥65 years, and higher for men than for women. According to the results of stratified analysis by gender, non-married men exhibited a greater risk of suicide than their married counterparts in all sub-analyses, but women aged 65 years or older showed no significant association between marital status and suicide. The suicide risk in divorced individuals was higher than for non-married individuals in both men and women. The meta-regression showed that gender, age, and sample size affected between-study variation. The results of the study indicated that non-married individuals have an aggregate higher suicide risk than married ones. In addition, gender and age were confirmed as important moderating factors in the relationship between marital status and suicide. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

[Economic effects of integrated RIS-PACS solution in the university environment].

PubMed

Kröger, M; Nissen-Meyer, S; Wetekam, V; Reiser, M

1999-04-01

The goal of the current article is to demonstrate how qualitative and monetary effects resulting from an integrated RIS/PACS installation can be evaluated. First of all, the system concept of a RIS/PACS solution for a university hospital is defined and described. Based on this example, a generic method for the evaluation of qualitative and monetary effects as well as associated risks is depicted and demonstrated. To this end, qualitative analyses, investment calculations and risk analysis are employed. The sample analysis of a RIS/PACS solution specially designed for a university hospital demonstrates positive qualitative and monetary effects of the system. Under ideal conditions the payoff time of the investments is reached after 4 years of an assumed 8 years effective life of the system. Furthermore, under conservative assumptions, the risk analysis shows a probability of 0% for realising a negative net present value at the end of the payoff time period. It should be pointed out that the positive result of this sample analysis will not necessarily apply to other clinics or hospitals. However, the same methods may be used for the individual evaluation of the qualitative and monetary effects of a RIS/PACS installation in any clinic.

Safety analytics for integrating crash frequency and real-time risk modeling for expressways.

PubMed

Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Lee, Jaeyoung

2017-07-01

To find crash contributing factors, there have been numerous crash frequency and real-time safety studies, but such studies have been conducted independently. Until this point, no researcher has simultaneously analyzed crash frequency and real-time crash risk to test whether integrating them could better explain crash occurrence. Therefore, this study aims at integrating crash frequency and real-time safety analyses using expressway data. A Bayesian integrated model and a non-integrated model were built: the integrated model linked the crash frequency and the real-time models by adding the logarithm of the estimated expected crash frequency in the real-time model; the non-integrated model independently estimated the crash frequency and the real-time crash risk. The results showed that the integrated model outperformed the non-integrated model, as it provided much better model results for both the crash frequency and the real-time models. This result indicated that the added component, the logarithm of the expected crash frequency, successfully linked and provided useful information to the two models. This study uncovered few variables that are not typically included in the crash frequency analysis. For example, the average daily standard deviation of speed, which was aggregated based on speed at 1-min intervals, had a positive effect on crash frequency. In conclusion, this study suggested a methodology to improve the crash frequency and real-time models by integrating them, and it might inspire future researchers to understand crash mechanisms better. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-05-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Structural reliability methods: Code development status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

1991-01-01

The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

Impact of Atmospheric Aerosols on Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Peng, W.; Yang, J.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

2016-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Use of Model-Based Design Methods for Enhancing Resiliency Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Lenora A.

The most common traditional non-functional requirement analysis is reliability. With systems becoming more complex, networked, and adaptive to environmental uncertainties, system resiliency has recently become the non-functional requirement analysis of choice. Analysis of system resiliency has challenges; which include, defining resilience for domain areas, identifying resilience metrics, determining resilience modeling strategies, and understanding how to best integrate the concepts of risk and reliability into resiliency. Formal methods that integrate all of these concepts do not currently exist in specific domain areas. Leveraging RAMSoS, a model-based reliability analysis methodology for Systems of Systems (SoS), we propose an extension that accounts for resiliency analysis through evaluation of mission performance, risk, and cost using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) modeling and design trade study variability modeling evaluation techniques. This proposed methodology, coined RAMSoS-RESIL, is applied to a case study in the multi-agent unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) domain to investigate the potential benefits of a mission architecture where functionality to complete a mission is disseminated across multiple UAVs (distributed) opposed to being contained in a single UAV (monolithic). The case study based research demonstrates proof of concept for the proposed model-based technique and provides sufficient preliminary evidence to conclude which architectural design (distributed vs. monolithic) is most resilient based on insight into mission resilience performance, risk, and cost in addition to the traditional analysis of reliability.

Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human Rights Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poe, Steven C.; Rost, Nicolas; Carey, Sabine C.

2006-01-01

Over the past two decades, substantial progress has been made toward a theoretical understanding of why physical integrity abuses are committed. Unfortunately, these theoretical developments have been devoid of much practical application. In this article, the authors explore the feasibility of risk assessment in the study of these human rights.…

76 FR 9020 - Disease, Disability, and Injury Prevention and Control; Special Emphasis Panel (SEP): Ability of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-16

... Integrated Tick Management (ITM) Technologies To Reduce the Entomological Risk of Lyme Disease, Funding... Tick Management (ITM) Technologies To Reduce the Entomological Risk of Lyme Disease, FOA CK11-005...), Title 5 U.S.C., and the Determination of the Director, Management Analysis and Services Office, CDC...

An Analysis of Whitewater Rafting Safety Data: Risk Management for Programme Organizers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, I. Roy

2007-01-01

Many outdoor organizations integrate whitewater rafting into their programmes. Often this is accomplished by contracting with a whitewater outfitter. This paper analyses rafting accident data collected by the American Canoe Association in an effort to suggest ways in which programmes can better manage risk while contracting with outfitters for…

Report on Integration of Existing Grid Models for N-R HES Interaction Focused on Balancing Authorities for Sub-hour Penalties and Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McJunkin, Timothy; Epiney, Aaron; Rabiti, Cristian

2017-06-01

This report provides a summary of the effort in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project on the level 4 milestone to consider integration of existing grid models into the factors for optimization on shorter time intervals than the existing electric grid models with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Modelica [1] optimizations and economic analysis that are the focus of the project to date.

Decision making for animal health and welfare: integrating risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory.

PubMed

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2014-06-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers' choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers' assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers' management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Trade Liberalization and Women's Integration into National Labor Markets: A Cross-Country Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Lisa B.

2006-01-01

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization and the risks associated with participation in the global trading system on women's integration into national labor markets. Using data from 1970 to 1995, I identify two global determinants of the female share of national labor markets: trade openness and transnational corporate penetration.…

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sezen, Halil; Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, R.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

Mine safety assessment using gray relational analysis and bow tie model

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Mine safety assessment is a precondition for ensuring orderly and safety in production. The main purpose of this study was to prevent mine accidents more effectively by proposing a composite risk analysis model. First, the weights of the assessment indicators were determined by the revised integrated weight method, in which the objective weights were determined by a variation coefficient method and the subjective weights determined by the Delphi method. A new formula was then adopted to calculate the integrated weights based on the subjective and objective weights. Second, after the assessment indicator weights were determined, gray relational analysis was used to evaluate the safety of mine enterprises. Mine enterprise safety was ranked according to the gray relational degree, and weak links of mine safety practices identified based on gray relational analysis. Third, to validate the revised integrated weight method adopted in the process of gray relational analysis, the fuzzy evaluation method was used to the safety assessment of mine enterprises. Fourth, for first time, bow tie model was adopted to identify the causes and consequences of weak links and allow corresponding safety measures to be taken to guarantee the mine’s safe production. A case study of mine safety assessment was presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed composite risk analysis model, which can be applied to other related industries for safety evaluation. PMID:29561875

An integrated safety analysis of intravenous ibuprofen (Caldolor®) in adults

PubMed Central

Southworth, Stephen R; Woodward, Emily J; Peng, Alex; Rock, Amy D

2015-01-01

Intravenous (IV) nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as IV ibuprofen are increasingly used as a component of multimodal pain management in the inpatient and outpatient settings. The safety of IV ibuprofen as assessed in ten sponsored clinical studies is presented in this analysis. Overall, 1,752 adult patients have been included in safety and efficacy trials over 11 years; 1,220 of these patients have received IV ibuprofen and 532 received either placebo or comparator medication. The incidence of adverse events (AEs), serious AEs, and changes in vital signs and clinically significant laboratory parameters have been summarized and compared to patients receiving placebo or active comparator drug. Overall, IV ibuprofen has been well tolerated by hospitalized and outpatient patients when administered both prior to surgery and postoperatively as well as for nonsurgical pain or fever. The overall incidence of AEs is lower in patients receiving IV ibuprofen as compared to those receiving placebo in this integrated analysis. Specific analysis of hematological and renal effects showed no increased risk for patients receiving IV ibuprofen. A subset analysis of elderly patients suggests that no dose adjustment is needed in this higher risk population. This integrated safety analysis demonstrates that IV ibuprofen can be safely administered prior to surgery and continued in the postoperative period as a component of multimodal pain management. PMID:26604816

An Integrated Low-Speed Performance and Noise Prediction Methodology for Subsonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, E. D.; Mavris, D. N.

2000-01-01

An integrated methodology has been assembled to compute the engine performance, takeoff and landing trajectories, and community noise levels for a subsonic commercial aircraft. Where feasible, physics-based noise analysis methods have been used to make the results more applicable to newer, revolutionary designs and to allow for a more direct evaluation of new technologies. The methodology is intended to be used with approximation methods and risk analysis techniques to allow for the analysis of a greater number of variable combinations while retaining the advantages of physics-based analysis. Details of the methodology are described and limited results are presented for a representative subsonic commercial aircraft.

The integration methods of fuzzy fault mode and effect analysis and fault tree analysis for risk analysis of yogurt production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aprilia, Ayu Rizky; Santoso, Imam; Ekasari, Dhita Murita

2017-05-01

Yogurt is a product based on milk, which has beneficial effects for health. The process for the production of yogurt is very susceptible to failure because it involves bacteria and fermentation. For an industry, the risks may cause harm and have a negative impact. In order for a product to be successful and profitable, it requires the analysis of risks that may occur during the production process. Risk analysis can identify the risks in detail and prevent as well as determine its handling, so that the risks can be minimized. Therefore, this study will analyze the risks of the production process with a case study in CV.XYZ. The method used in this research is the Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (fuzzy FMEA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The results showed that there are 6 risks from equipment variables, raw material variables, and process variables. Those risks include the critical risk, which is the risk of a lack of an aseptic process, more specifically if starter yogurt is damaged due to contamination by fungus or other bacteria and a lack of sanitation equipment. The results of quantitative analysis of FTA showed that the highest probability is the probability of the lack of an aseptic process, with a risk of 3.902%. The recommendations for improvement include establishing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures), which include the process, workers, and environment, controlling the starter of yogurt and improving the production planning and sanitation equipment using hot water immersion.

Effect of Integration Patterns Around Implant Neck on Stress Distribution in Peri-Implant Bone: A Finite Element Analysis.

PubMed

Han, Jingyun; Sun, Yuchun; Wang, Chao

2017-08-01

To investigate the biomechanical performance of different osseointegration patterns between cortical bone and implants using finite element analysis. Fifteen finite element models were constructed of the mandibular fixed prosthesis supported by implants. Masticatory loads (200 N axial, 100 N oblique, 40 N horizontal) were applied. The cortical bone/implant interface was divided equally into four layers: upper, upper-middle, lower-middle, and lower. The bone stress and implant displacement were calculated for 5 degrees of uniform integration (0, 20%, 40%, 60%, and 100%) and 10 integration patterns. The stress was concentrated in the bone margin and gradually decreased as osseointegration progressed, when the integrated and nonintegrated areas were alternated on the bone-implant surface. Compared with full integration, the integration of only the lower-middle layer or lower half layers significantly decreased von Mises, tensile, and compressive stresses in cortical bone under oblique and horizontal loads, and these patterns did not induce higher stress in the cancellous bone. For the integration of only the upper or upper-middle layer, stress in the cortical and cancellous bones significantly increased and was considerably higher than in the case of nonintegration. In addition, the maximum stress in the cortical bone was sensitive to the quantity of integrated nodes at the bone margin; lower quantity was associated with higher stress. There was no significant difference in the displacement of implants among 15 models. Integration patterns of cortical bone significantly affect stress distribution in peri-implant bone. The integration of only the lower-middle or lower half layers helps to increase the load-bearing capacity of peri-implant bone and decrease the risk of overloading, while upper integration may further increase the risk of bone resorption. © 2016 by the American College of Prosthodontists.

Integrated Cost and Schedule using Monte Carlo Simulation of a CPM Model - 12419

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hulett, David T.; Nosbisch, Michael R.

This discussion of the recommended practice (RP) 57R-09 of AACE International defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and hence on the need for cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the prioritizing of the risks to cost, some of which are risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in a cost-effective way, scatter diagrams of time-cost pairs for developing joint targets of time and cost,more » and probabilistic cash flow which shows cash flow at different levels of certainty. Integrating cost and schedule risk into one analysis based on the project schedule loaded with costed resources from the cost estimate provides both: (1) more accurate cost estimates than if the schedule risk were ignored or incorporated only partially, and (2) illustrates the importance of schedule risk to cost risk when the durations of activities using labor-type (time-dependent) resources are risky. Many activities such as detailed engineering, construction or software development are mainly conducted by people who need to be paid even if their work takes longer than scheduled. Level-of-effort resources, such as the project management team, are extreme examples of time-dependent resources, since if the project duration exceeds its planned duration the cost of these resources will increase over their budgeted amount. The integrated cost-schedule risk analysis is based on: - A high quality CPM schedule with logic tight enough so that it will provide the correct dates and critical paths during simulation automatically without manual intervention. - A contingency-free estimate of project costs that is loaded on the activities of the schedule. - Resolves inconsistencies between cost estimate and schedule that often creep into those documents as project execution proceeds. - Good-quality risk data that are usually collected in risk interviews of the project team, management and others knowledgeable in the risk of the project. The risks from the risk register are used as the basis of the risk data in the risk driver method. The risk driver method is based in the fundamental principle that identifiable risks drive overall cost and schedule risk. - A Monte Carlo simulation software program that can simulate schedule risk, burn WM2012 rate risk and time-independent resource risk. The results include the standard histograms and cumulative distributions of possible cost and time results for the project. However, by simulating both cost and time simultaneously we can collect the cost-time pairs of results and hence show the scatter diagram ('football chart') that indicates the joint probability of finishing on time and on budget. Also, we can derive the probabilistic cash flow for comparison with the time-phased project budget. Finally the risks to schedule completion and to cost can be prioritized, say at the P-80 level of confidence, to help focus the risk mitigation efforts. If the cost and schedule estimates including contingency reserves are not acceptable to the project stakeholders the project team should conduct risk mitigation workshops and studies, deciding which risk mitigation actions to take, and re-run the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the possible improvement to the project's objectives. Finally, it is recommended that the contingency reserves of cost and of time, calculated at a level that represents an acceptable degree of certainty and uncertainty for the project stakeholders, be added as a resource-loaded activity to the project schedule for strategic planning purposes. The risk analysis described in this paper is correct only for the current plan, represented by the schedule. The project contingency reserve of time and cost that are the main results of this analysis apply if that plan is to be followed. Of course project managers have the option of re-planning and re-scheduling in the face of new facts, in part by mitigating risk. This analysis identifies the high-priority risks to cost and to schedule, which assist the project manager in planning further risk mitigation. Some project managers reject the results and argue that they cannot possibly be so late or so overrun. Those project managers may be wasting an opportunity to mitigate risk and get a more favorable outcome. (authors)« less

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

PubMed

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

Mirabel: an integrated project for risk and cost/benefit analysis of peanut allergy.

PubMed

Crépet, A; Papadopoulos, A; Elegbede, C F; Ait-Dahmane, S; Loynet, C; Millet, G; Van Der Brempt, X; Bruyère, O; Marette, S; Moneret-Vautrin, D A

2015-03-01

Food allergy is a major public health issue. However, no regulatory measures exist when allergens are present at trace levels and the different risk components are poorly described. Thus, knowledge on exposure components such as the allergens present in foods and the consumption behaviour of allergic consumers and models to estimate the related risk need to be enriched. Mirabel proposes for the first time studying each risk component using an integrated approach in order to improve the quality of life of the allergic population. Field surveys were conducted in order to fill in the current gaps in unintentional allergen traces in food, allergic consumers' food behaviour, threshold doses of allergic reaction, allergy symptoms and severity. The aim is also to propose methodological and operational tools to quantify allergic risk, to test management scenarios and to produce a cost/benefit analysis. Medical data on the peanut allergies of 785 patients were collected in the MIRABEL survey and 443 patients answered the food consumption questionnaire. The population surveyed was mostly paediatric - 86% were children under 16 years of age, with a high percentage of males (60%). This project will generate tangible results on peanut allergen exposure and risk which could be used in future risk assessment work and particularly to provide science-based guidance to set up concentration limits for peanut traces on packages. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahfouz, Amr; Arisha, Amr

2011-01-01

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

Assessing and managing the health risk due to ingestion of inorganic arsenic from fish and shellfish farmed in blackfoot disease areas for general Taiwanese.

PubMed

Liang, Ching-Ping; Liu, Chen-Wuing; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Lee, Jin-Jing

2011-02-15

This paper assesses health risks due to the ingestion of inorganic arsenic from fish and shellfish farmed in blackfoot disease areas by general public in Taiwan. The provisional tolerable weekly intake of arsenic set by FAO/WHO and the target cancer risk assessment model proposed by USEPA were integrated to evaluate the acceptable consumption rate. Five aquacultural species, tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus), milkfish (Chanos chanos), mullet (Mugil cephalus), clam (Meretrix lusoria) and oyster (Crassostrea gigas) were included. Monte Carlo analysis was used to propagate the parameter uncertainty and to probabilistically assess the health risk associated with the daily intake of inorganic As from farmed fish and shellfish. The integrated risk-based analysis indicates that the associated 50th and 95th percentile health risk are 2.06×10(-5) and 8.77×10(-5), respectively. Moreover, the acceptable intakes of inorganic As are defined and illustrated by a two dimensional graphical model. According to the relationship between C(inorg) and IR(f) derived from this study, two risk-based curves are constructed. An acceptable risk zone is determined (risk ranging from 1×10(-5) to 6.07×10(-5)) which is recommended for acceptable consumption rates of fish and shellfish. To manage the health risk due to the ingestion of inorganic As from fish and shellfish in BFD areas, a risk-based management scheme is derived which provide a convenient way for general public to self-determine the acceptable seafood consumption rate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gis-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for Forest Fire Risk Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akay, A. E.; Erdoğan, A.

2017-11-01

The forested areas along the coastal zone of the Mediterranean region in Turkey are classified as first-degree fire sensitive areas. Forest fires are major environmental disaster that affects the sustainability of forest ecosystems. Besides, forest fires result in important economic losses and even threaten human lives. Thus, it is critical to determine the forested areas with fire risks and thereby minimize the damages on forest resources by taking necessary precaution measures in these areas. The risk of forest fire can be assessed based on various factors such as forest vegetation structures (tree species, crown closure, tree stage), topographic features (slope and aspect), and climatic parameters (temperature, wind). In this study, GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method was used to generate forest fire risk map. The study was implemented in the forested areas within Yayla Forest Enterprise Chiefs at Dursunbey Forest Enterprise Directorate which is classified as first degree fire sensitive area. In the solution process, "extAhp 2.0" plug-in running Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in ArcGIS 10.4.1 was used to categorize study area under five fire risk classes: extreme risk, high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The results indicated that 23.81 % of the area was of extreme risk, while 25.81 % was of high risk. The result indicated that the most effective criterion was tree species, followed by tree stages. The aspect had the least effective criterion on forest fire risk. It was revealed that GIS techniques integrated with MCDA methods are effective tools to quickly estimate forest fire risk at low cost. The integration of these factors into GIS can be very useful to determine forested areas with high fire risk and also to plan forestry management after fire.

Applying machine learning to pattern analysis for automated in-design layout optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cain, Jason P.; Fakhry, Moutaz; Pathak, Piyush; Sweis, Jason; Gennari, Frank; Lai, Ya-Chieh

2018-04-01

Building on previous work for cataloging unique topological patterns in an integrated circuit physical design, a new process is defined in which a risk scoring methodology is used to rank patterns based on manufacturing risk. Patterns with high risk are then mapped to functionally equivalent patterns with lower risk. The higher risk patterns are then replaced in the design with their lower risk equivalents. The pattern selection and replacement is fully automated and suitable for use for full-chip designs. Results from 14nm product designs show that the approach can identify and replace risk patterns with quantifiable positive impact on the risk score distribution after replacement.

Integrated CLL Scoring System, a New and Simple Index to Predict Time to Treatment and Overall Survival in Patients With Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia.

PubMed

Visentin, Andrea; Facco, Monica; Frezzato, Federica; Castelli, Monica; Trimarco, Valentina; Martini, Veronica; Gattazzo, Cristina; Severin, Filippo; Chiodin, Giorgia; Martines, Annalisa; Bonaldi, Laura; Gianesello, Ilaria; Pagnin, Elisa; Boscaro, Elisa; Piazza, Francesco; Zambello, Renato; Semenzato, Gianpietro; Trentin, Livio

2015-10-01

Several prognostic factors have been identified to predict the outcome of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but only a few studies analyzed more markers together. Taking advantage of a population of 608 patients, we identified the strongest prognostic markers of survival and, subsequently, in a cohort of 212 patients we integrated data of cytogenetic lesions, IGHV mutational status, and CD38 expression in a new and easy scoring system we called the integrated CLL scoring system (ICSS). ICSS defines 3 groups of risk: (1) low risk (patients with 13q(-) or normal fluorescence in-situ hybridization analysis results, mutated IGHV, and CD38) (2) high risk (all 11q(-) or 17p(-) patients and/or all unmutated IGHV and CD38(+) patients); and (3) intermediate risk (all remaining patients). Using only these 3 already available prognostic factors, we were able to properly redefine patients and better predict the clinical course of the disease. ICSS could become a useful tool for CLL patients' management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does market integration buffer risk, erode traditional sharing practices and increase inequality? A test among Bolivian forager-farmers

PubMed Central

Gurven, Michael; Jaeggi, Adrian V.; von Rueden, Chris; Hooper, Paul L.; Kaplan, Hillard

2015-01-01

Sharing and exchange are common practices for minimizing food insecurity in rural populations. The advent of markets and monetization in egalitarian indigenous populations presents an alternative means of managing risk, with the potential impact of eroding traditional networks. We test whether market involvement buffers several types of risk and reduces traditional sharing behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of the Bolivian Amazon. Results vary based on type of market integration and scale of analysis (household vs. village), consistent with the notion that local culture and ecology shape risk management strategies. Greater wealth and income were unassociated with the reliance on others for food, or on reciprocity, but wealth was associated with a greater proportion of food given to others (i.e., giving intensity) and a greater number of sharing partners (i.e., sharing breadth). Across villages, greater mean income was negatively associated with reciprocity, but economic inequality was positively associated with giving intensity and sharing breadth. Incipient market integration does not necessarily replace traditional buffering strategies but instead can often enhance social capital. PMID:26526638

The Development of Comorbid Conduct Problems in Children With ADHD: An Example of an Integrative Developmental Psychopathology Perspective.

PubMed

Danforth, Jeffrey S; Connor, Daniel F; Doerfler, Leonard A

2016-03-01

We describe interactions among factors that contribute to the development of conduct problems among children with ADHD. An integrative developmental psychopathology analysis combines various approaches and posits one model of how diverse risk factors operate together to contribute to the development of conduct problems among children with ADHD. Substantial genetic risk increases covariation between ADHD and conduct problems. Candidate genes are associated with CNS monoaminergic neurotransmission. Subsequent neurodevelopmental impairment interferes with executive function, with impaired verbal working memory playing an important role. Parent/child bi-directional influences exacerbate the risk for conduct problems when ADHD symptoms increase the likelihood of a coercive parenting style. Parent stress in reaction to child comorbid ADHD and conduct problems, and parent attribution for the child's conduct problem behavior, add to the potential for coercion and reduce constructive parent-child interaction that might otherwise enhance the development of verbal working memory. In an integrated manner, these variables increase the risk that a child with ADHD will subsequently develop conduct problems. © The Author(s) 2014.

Does market integration buffer risk, erode traditional sharing practices and increase inequality? A test among Bolivian forager-farmers.

PubMed

Gurven, Michael; Jaeggi, Adrian V; von Rueden, Chris; Hooper, Paul L; Kaplan, Hillard

2015-08-01

Sharing and exchange are common practices for minimizing food insecurity in rural populations. The advent of markets and monetization in egalitarian indigenous populations presents an alternative means of managing risk, with the potential impact of eroding traditional networks. We test whether market involvement buffers several types of risk and reduces traditional sharing behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of the Bolivian Amazon. Results vary based on type of market integration and scale of analysis (household vs. village), consistent with the notion that local culture and ecology shape risk management strategies. Greater wealth and income were unassociated with the reliance on others for food, or on reciprocity, but wealth was associated with a greater proportion of food given to others (i.e., giving intensity) and a greater number of sharing partners (i.e., sharing breadth). Across villages, greater mean income was negatively associated with reciprocity, but economic inequality was positively associated with giving intensity and sharing breadth. Incipient market integration does not necessarily replace traditional buffering strategies but instead can often enhance social capital.

Technical guide for applications of gene expression profiling in human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals.

PubMed

Bourdon-Lacombe, Julie A; Moffat, Ivy D; Deveau, Michelle; Husain, Mainul; Auerbach, Scott; Krewski, Daniel; Thomas, Russell S; Bushel, Pierre R; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L

2015-07-01

Toxicogenomics promises to be an important part of future human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals. The application of gene expression profiles (e.g., for hazard identification, chemical prioritization, chemical grouping, mode of action discovery, and quantitative analysis of response) is growing in the literature, but their use in formal risk assessment by regulatory agencies is relatively infrequent. Although additional validations for specific applications are required, gene expression data can be of immediate use for increasing confidence in chemical evaluations. We believe that a primary reason for the current lack of integration is the limited practical guidance available for risk assessment specialists with limited experience in genomics. The present manuscript provides basic information on gene expression profiling, along with guidance on evaluating the quality of genomic experiments and data, and interpretation of results presented in the form of heat maps, pathway analyses and other common approaches. Moreover, potential ways to integrate information from gene expression experiments into current risk assessment are presented using published studies as examples. The primary objective of this work is to facilitate integration of gene expression data into human health risk assessments of environmental chemicals. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating natural disturbances and management activities to examine risks and opportunities in the central Oregon landscape analysis

Treesearch

Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Theresa Burcsu; Janet Ohmann; Ryan Singleton

2010-01-01

We used state and transition models to integrate natural disturbances and management activities for a 275 000-ha landscape in the central Oregon Cascades. The landscape consists of a diverse mix of land ownerships, land use allocations, and environments. Three different management scenarios were developed from public input: (1) no management except wildfire suppression...

Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) - TRIM.Expo

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Exposure Event module of TRIM (TRIM.Expo), similar to most human exposure models, provides an analysis of the relationships between various chemical concentrations in the environment and exposure levels of humans.

State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: introduction.

PubMed

Verhagen, H; Tijhuis, M J; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Kalogeras, N; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Odekerken, G; Pohjola, M V; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Holm, F

2012-01-01

Risk-taking is normal in everyday life if there are associated (perceived) benefits. Benefit-Risk Analysis (BRA) compares the risk of a situation to its related benefits and addresses the acceptability of the risk. Over the past years BRA in relation to food and food ingredients has gained attention. Food, and even the same food ingredient, may confer both beneficial and adverse effects. Measures directed at food safety may lead to suboptimal or insufficient levels of ingredients from a benefit perspective. In BRA, benefits and risks of food (ingredients) are assessed in one go and may conditionally be expressed into one currency. This allows the comparison of adverse and beneficial effects to be qualitative and quantitative. A BRA should help policy-makers to make more informed and balanced benefit-risk management decisions. Not allowing food benefits to occur in order to guarantee food safety is a risk management decision much the same as accepting some risk in order to achieve more benefits. BRA in food and nutrition is making progress, but difficulties remain. The field may benefit from looking across its borders to learn from other research areas. The BEPRARIBEAN project (Best Practices for Risk-Benefit Analysis: experience from out of food into food; http://en.opasnet.org/w/Bepraribean) aims to do so, by working together with Medicines, Food Microbiology, Environmental Health, Economics & Marketing-Finance and Consumer Perception. All perspectives are reviewed and subsequently integrated to identify opportunities for further development of BRA for food and food ingredients. Interesting issues that emerge are the varying degrees of risk that are deemed acceptable within the areas and the trend towards more open and participatory BRA processes. A set of 6 'state of the art' papers covering the above areas and a paper integrating the separate (re)views are published in this volume. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Timing of Formal Phase Safety Reviews for Large-Scale Integrated Hazard Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massie, Michael J.; Morris, A. Terry

2010-01-01

Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is a process used to identify and control unacceptable risk. As such, it does not occur in a vacuum. IHA approaches must be tailored to fit the system being analyzed. Physical, resource, organizational and temporal constraints on large-scale integrated systems impose additional direct or derived requirements on the IHA. The timing and interaction between engineering and safety organizations can provide either benefits or hindrances to the overall end product. The traditional approach for formal phase safety review timing and content, which generally works well for small- to moderate-scale systems, does not work well for very large-scale integrated systems. This paper proposes a modified approach to timing and content of formal phase safety reviews for IHA. Details of the tailoring process for IHA will describe how to avoid temporary disconnects in major milestone reviews and how to maintain a cohesive end-to-end integration story particularly for systems where the integrator inherently has little to no insight into lower level systems. The proposal has the advantage of allowing the hazard analysis development process to occur as technical data normally matures.

A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

2015-06-01

In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

2017-10-01

Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Selection of first-line therapy in multiple sclerosis using risk-benefit decision analysis.

PubMed

Bargiela, David; Bianchi, Matthew T; Westover, M Brandon; Chibnik, Lori B; Healy, Brian C; De Jager, Philip L; Xia, Zongqi

2017-02-14

To integrate long-term measures of disease-modifying drug efficacy and risk to guide selection of first-line treatment of multiple sclerosis. We created a Markov decision model to evaluate disability worsening and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) risk in patients receiving natalizumab (NTZ), fingolimod (FGL), or glatiramer acetate (GA) over 30 years. Leveraging publicly available data, we integrated treatment utility, disability worsening, and risk of PML into quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity analyses varying PML risk, mortality and morbidity, and relative risk of disease worsening across clinically relevant ranges. Over the entire reported range of NTZ-associated PML risk, NTZ as first-line therapy is predicted to provide a greater net benefit (15.06 QALYs) than FGL (13.99 QALYs) or GA (12.71 QALYs) treatment over 30 years, after accounting for loss of QALYs due to PML or death (resulting from all causes). NTZ treatment is associated with delayed worsening to an Expanded Disability Status Scale score ≥6.0 vs FGL or GA (22.7, 17.0, and 12.4 years, respectively). Compared to untreated patients, NTZ-treated patients have a greater relative risk of death in the early years of treatment that varies according to PML risk profile. NTZ as a first-line treatment is associated with the highest net benefit across full ranges of PML risk, mortality, and morbidity compared to FGL or GA. Integrated modeling of long-term treatment risks and benefits informs stratified clinical decision-making and can support patient counseling on selection of first-line treatment options. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Geodiametris: an integrated geoinformatic approach for monitoring land pollution from the disposal of olive oil mill wastes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexakis, Dimitrios D.; Sarris, Apostolos; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Soupios, Pantelis; Doula, Maria; Cavvadias, Victor

2014-08-01

The olive-oil industry is one of the most important sectors of agricultural production in Greece, which is the third in olive-oil production country worldwide. Olive oil mill wastes (OOMW) constitute a major factor in pollution in olivegrowing regions and an important problem to be solved for the agricultural industry. The olive-oil mill wastes are normally deposited at tanks, or directly in the soil or even on adjacent torrents, rivers and lakes posing a high risk to the environmental pollution and the community health. GEODIAMETRIS project aspires to develop integrated geoinformatic methodologies for performing monitoring of land pollution from the disposal of OOMW in the island of Crete -Greece. These methodologies integrate GPS surveys, satellite remote sensing and risk assessment analysis in GIS environment, application of in situ and laboratory geophysical methodologies as well as soil and water physicochemical analysis. Concerning project's preliminary results, all the operating OOMW areas located in Crete have been already registered through extensive GPS field campaigns. Their spatial and attribute information has been stored in an integrated GIS database and an overall OOMW spectral signature database has been constructed through the analysis of multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI satellite images. In addition, a specific OOMW area located in Alikianos village (Chania-Crete) has been selected as one of the main case study areas. Various geophysical methodologies, such as Electrical Resistivity Tomography, Induced Polarization, multifrequency electromagnetic, Self Potential measurements and Ground Penetrating Radar have been already implemented. Soil as well as liquid samples have been collected for performing physico-chemical analysis. The preliminary results have already contributed to the gradual development of an integrated environmental monitoring tool for studying and understanding environmental degradation from the disposal of OOMW.

Integrating information from disparate sources: the Walter Reed National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Data Transfer Project.

PubMed

Nelson, Victoria; Nelson, Victoria Ruth; Li, Fiona; Green, Susan; Tamura, Tomoyoshi; Liu, Jun-Min; Class, Margaret

2008-11-06

The Walter Reed National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Data Transfer web module integrates with medical and surgical information systems, and leverages outside standards, such as the National Library of Medicine's RxNorm, to process surgical and risk assessment data. Key components of the project included a needs assessment with nurse reviewers and a data analysis for federated (standards were locally controlled) data sources. The resulting interface streamlines nurse reviewer workflow by integrating related tasks and data.

[The role of a specialised risk analysis group in the Veterinary Services of a developing country].

PubMed

Urbina-Amarís, M E

2003-08-01

Since the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was established, risk analysis in trade, and ultimately in Veterinary and Animal Health Services, has become strategically important. Irrespective of their concept (discipline, approach, method, process), all types of risk analysis in trade involve four periods or phases:--risk identification-- risk assessment--risk management--risk information or communication. All veterinarians involved in a risk analysis unit must have in-depth knowledge of statistics and the epidemiology of transmissible diseases, as well as a basic knowledge of veterinary science, economics, mathematics, data processing and social communication, to enable them to work with professionals in these disciplines. Many developing countries do not have enough well-qualified professionnals in these areas to support a risk analysis unit. This will need to be rectified by seeking strategic alliances with other public or private sectors that will provide the required support to run the unit properly. Due to the special nature of its risk analysis functions, its role in supporting decision-making, and the criteria of independence and transparency that are so crucial to its operations, the hierarchical position of the risk analysis unit should be close to the top management of the Veterinary Service. Due to the shortage of personnel in developing countries with the required training and scientific and technical qualifications, countries with organisations responsible for both animal and plant health protection would be advised to set up integrated plant and animal risk analysis units. In addition, these units could take charge of all activities relating to WTO agreements and regional agreements on animal and plant health management.

Managing Large Scale Project Analysis Teams through a Web Accessible Database

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Daniel A.

2008-01-01

Large scale space programs analyze thousands of requirements while mitigating safety, performance, schedule, and cost risks. These efforts involve a variety of roles with interdependent use cases and goals. For example, study managers and facilitators identify ground-rules and assumptions for a collection of studies required for a program or project milestone. Task leaders derive product requirements from the ground rules and assumptions and describe activities to produce needed analytical products. Disciplined specialists produce the specified products and load results into a file management system. Organizational and project managers provide the personnel and funds to conduct the tasks. Each role has responsibilities to establish information linkages and provide status reports to management. Projects conduct design and analysis cycles to refine designs to meet the requirements and implement risk mitigation plans. At the program level, integrated design and analysis cycles studies are conducted to eliminate every 'to-be-determined' and develop plans to mitigate every risk. At the agency level, strategic studies analyze different approaches to exploration architectures and campaigns. This paper describes a web-accessible database developed by NASA to coordinate and manage tasks at three organizational levels. Other topics in this paper cover integration technologies and techniques for process modeling and enterprise architectures.

Radiogenomics: a systems biology approach to understanding genetic risk factors for radiotherapy toxicity ?

PubMed Central

Herskind, Carsten; Talbot, Christopher J.; Kerns, Sarah L.; Veldwijk, Marlon R.; Rosenstein, Barry S.; West, Catharine M. L.

2016-01-01

Adverse reactions in normal tissue after radiotherapy (RT) limit the dose that can be given to tumour cells. Since 80% of individual variation in clinical response is estimated to be caused by patient-related factors, identifying these factors might allow prediction of patients with increased risk of developing severe reactions. While inactivation of cell renewal is considered a major cause of toxicity in early-reacting normal tissues, complex interactions involving multiple cell types, cytokines, and hypoxia seem important for late reactions. Here, we review ‘omics’ approaches such as screening of genetic polymorphisms or gene expression analysis, and assess the potential of epigenetic factors, posttranslational modification, signal transduction, and metabolism. Furthermore, functional assays have suggested possible associations with clinical risk of adverse reaction. Pathway analysis incorporating different ‘omics’ approaches may be more efficient in identifying critical pathways than pathway analysis based on single ‘omics’ data sets. Integrating these pathways with functional assays may be powerful in identifying multiple subgroups of RT patients characterized by different mechanisms. Thus ‘omics’ and functional approaches may synergize if they are integrated into radiogenomics ‘systems biology’ to facilitate the goal of individualised radiotherapy. PMID:26944314

Construction of an integrated social vulnerability index in urban areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-09-01

Among the natural hazards, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths. Flood risk management (FRM) in this context requires a comprehensive assessment of the social risk component. In this regard, integrated social vulnerability (ISV) can incorporate spatial distribution and contribution and the combined effect of exposure, sensitivity and resilience to total vulnerability, although these components are often disregarded. ISV is defined by the demographic and socio-economic characteristics that condition a population's capacity to cope with, resist and recover from risk and can be expressed as the integrated social vulnerability index (ISVI). This study describes a methodological approach towards constructing the ISVI in urban areas prone to flash flooding in Castilla y León (Castile and León, northern central Spain, 94 223 km2, 2 478 376 inhabitants). A hierarchical segmentation analysis (HSA) was performed prior to the principal components analysis (PCA), which helped to overcome the sample size limitation inherent in PCA. ISVI was obtained from weighting vulnerability factors based on the tolerance statistic. In addition, latent class cluster analysis (LCCA) was carried out to identify spatial patterns of vulnerability within the study area. Our results show that the ISVI has high spatial variability. Moreover, the source of vulnerability in each urban area cluster can be identified from LCCA. These findings make it possible to design tailor-made strategies for FRM, thereby increasing the efficiency of plans and policies and helping to reduce the cost of mitigation measures.

Healthcare Work and Organizational Interventions to Prevent Work-related Stress in Brindisi, Italy.

PubMed

d'Ettorre, Gabriele; Greco, Mariarita

2015-03-01

Organizational changes that involve healthcare hospital departments and care services of health districts, and ongoing technological innovations and developments in society increasingly expose healthcare workers (HCWs) to work-related stress (WRS). Minimizing occupational exposure to stress requires effective risk stress assessment and management programs. The authors conducted an integrated analysis of stress sentinel indicators, an integrated analysis of objective stress factors of occupational context and content areas, and an integrated analysis between nurses and physicians of hospital departments and care services of health districts in accordance with a multidimensional validated tool developed in Italy by the National Network for the Prevention of Work-Related Psychosocial Disorders. The purpose of this retrospective observational study was to detect and analyze in different work settings the level of WRS resulting from organizational changes implemented by hospital healthcare departments and care services of health districts in a sample of their employees. The findings of the study showed that hospital HCWs seemed to incur a medium level risk of WRS that was principally the result of work context factors. The implementation of improvement interventions focused on team development, safety training programs, and adopting an ethics code for HCWs, and it effectively and significantly reduced the level of WRS risk in the workplace. In this study HCW resulted to be exposed to occupational stress factors susceptible to reduction. Stress management programs aimed to improve work context factors associated with occupational stress are required to minimize the impact of WRS on workers.

Convergent evidence from systematic analysis of GWAS revealed genetic basis of esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Gao, Xue-Xin; Gao, Lei; Wang, Jiu-Qiang; Qu, Su-Su; Qu, Yue; Sun, Hong-Lei; Liu, Si-Dang; Shang, Ying-Li

2016-07-12

Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with risk of esophageal cancer (EC). However, investigation of genetic basis from the perspective of systematic biology and integrative genomics remains scarce.In this study, we explored genetic basis of EC based on GWAS data and implemented a series of bioinformatics methods including functional annotation, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and pathway grouped network analysis.Two hundred and thirteen risk SNPs were identified, in which 44 SNPs were found to have significantly differential gene expression in esophageal tissues by eQTL analysis. By pathway enrichment analysis, 170 risk genes mapped by risk SNPs were enriched into 38 significant GO terms and 17 significant KEGG pathways, which were significantly grouped into 9 sub-networks by pathway grouped network analysis. The 9 groups of interconnected pathways were mainly involved with muscle cell proliferation, cellular response to interleukin-6, cell adhesion molecules, and ethanol oxidation, which might participate in the development of EC.Our findings provide genetic evidence and new insight for exploring the molecular mechanisms of EC.

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation's traditional territory, are situated on highly thaw sensitive permafrost. These projects demonstrate how physical and socio-economic factors can be integrated in assessments of permafrost vulnerability to thaw, thus providing tangible, useable results that reflect community priorities and support local decision making.

Geographic integration of hepatitis C virus: A global threat.

PubMed

Daw, Mohamed A; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah A; Ahmed, Mohamed O; Dau, Aghnyia A; Agnan, Mohamed M; Drah, Aisha M

2016-11-12

To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) geographic integration, evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of HCV worldwide and propose how to diminish its burden. A literature search of published articles was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE and other related databases up to December 2015. A critical data assessment and analysis regarding the epidemiological integration of HCV was carried out using the meta-analysis method. The data indicated that HCV has been integrated immensely over time and through various geographical regions worldwide. The history of HCV goes back to 1535 but between 1935 and 1965 it exhibited a rapid, exponential spread. This integration is clearly seen in the geo-epidemiology and phylogeography of HCV. HCV integration can be mirrored either as intra-continental or trans-continental. Migration, drug trafficking and HCV co-infection, together with other potential risk factors, have acted as a vehicle for this integration. Evidence shows that the geographic integration of HCV has been important in the global and regional distribution of HCV. HCV geographic integration is clearly evident and this should be reflected in the prevention and treatment of this ongoing pandemic.

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks.

PubMed

Thacker, Scott; Kelly, Scott; Pant, Raghav; Hall, Jim W

2018-01-01

Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the "do nothing" case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infrastructure risk assessment that incorporates interdependence, user demands, and potential failure-related economic losses. Individual infrastructure assets are intersected with probabilistic hazard maps to calculate expected annual damages. Protection measure costs are integrated to calculate risk reduction and associated discounted benefits, which are used to explore the business case for investment in adaptation. A demonstration of the methodology is provided for flood protection of major electricity substations in England and Wales. We conclude that the ongoing adaptation program for major electricity assets is highly cost beneficial. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

PubMed

Chang, Chiung Ting

2017-09-15

Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System safety in Stirling engine development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bankaitis, H.

1981-01-01

The DOE/NASA Stirling Engine Project Office has required that contractors make safety considerations an integral part of all phases of the Stirling engine development program. As an integral part of each engine design subtask, analyses are evolved to determine possible modes of failure. The accepted system safety analysis techniques (Fault Tree, FMEA, Hazards Analysis, etc.) are applied in various degrees of extent at the system, subsystem and component levels. The primary objectives are to identify critical failure areas, to enable removal of susceptibility to such failures or their effects from the system and to minimize risk.

LncSubpathway: a novel approach for identifying dysfunctional subpathways associated with risk lncRNAs by integrating lncRNA and mRNA expression profiles and pathway topologies.

PubMed

Xu, Yanjun; Li, Feng; Wu, Tan; Xu, Yingqi; Yang, Haixiu; Dong, Qun; Zheng, Meiyu; Shang, Desi; Zhang, Chunlong; Zhang, Yunpeng; Li, Xia

2017-02-28

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play important roles in various biological processes, including the development of many diseases. Pathway analysis is a valuable aid for understanding the cellular functions of these transcripts. We have developed and characterized LncSubpathway, a novel method that integrates lncRNA and protein coding gene (PCG) expression with interactome data to identify disease risk subpathways that functionally associated with risk lncRNAs. LncSubpathway identifies the most relevance regions which are related with risk lncRNA set and implicated with study conditions through simultaneously considering the dysregulation extent of lncRNAs, PCGs and their correlations. Simulation studies demonstrated that the sensitivity and false positive rates of LncSubpathway were within acceptable ranges, and that LncSubpathway could accurately identify dysregulated regions that related with disease risk lncRNAs within pathways. When LncSubpathway was applied to colorectal carcinoma and breast cancer subtype datasets, it identified cancer type- and breast cancer subtype-related meaningful subpathways. Further, analysis of its robustness and reproducibility indicated that LncSubpathway was a reliable means of identifying subpathways that functionally associated with lncRNAs. LncSubpathway is freely available at http://www.bio-bigdata.com/lncSubpathway/.

LncSubpathway: a novel approach for identifying dysfunctional subpathways associated with risk lncRNAs by integrating lncRNA and mRNA expression profiles and pathway topologies

PubMed Central

Wu, Tan; Xu, Yingqi; Yang, Haixiu; Dong, Qun; Zheng, Meiyu; Shang, Desi; Zhang, Chunlong; Zhang, Yunpeng; Li, Xia

2017-01-01

Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play important roles in various biological processes, including the development of many diseases. Pathway analysis is a valuable aid for understanding the cellular functions of these transcripts. We have developed and characterized LncSubpathway, a novel method that integrates lncRNA and protein coding gene (PCG) expression with interactome data to identify disease risk subpathways that functionally associated with risk lncRNAs. LncSubpathway identifies the most relevance regions which are related with risk lncRNA set and implicated with study conditions through simultaneously considering the dysregulation extent of lncRNAs, PCGs and their correlations. Simulation studies demonstrated that the sensitivity and false positive rates of LncSubpathway were within acceptable ranges, and that LncSubpathway could accurately identify dysregulated regions that related with disease risk lncRNAs within pathways. When LncSubpathway was applied to colorectal carcinoma and breast cancer subtype datasets, it identified cancer type- and breast cancer subtype-related meaningful subpathways. Further, analysis of its robustness and reproducibility indicated that LncSubpathway was a reliable means of identifying subpathways that functionally associated with lncRNAs. LncSubpathway is freely available at http://www.bio-bigdata.com/lncSubpathway/. PMID:28152521

Integration of Active and Passive Safety Technologies--A Method to Study and Estimate Field Capability.

PubMed

Hu, Jingwen; Flannagan, Carol A; Bao, Shan; McCoy, Robert W; Siasoco, Kevin M; Barbat, Saeed

2015-11-01

The objective of this study is to develop a method that uses a combination of field data analysis, naturalistic driving data analysis, and computational simulations to explore the potential injury reduction capabilities of integrating passive and active safety systems in frontal impact conditions. For the purposes of this study, the active safety system is actually a driver assist (DA) feature that has the potential to reduce delta-V prior to a crash, in frontal or other crash scenarios. A field data analysis was first conducted to estimate the delta-V distribution change based on an assumption of 20% crash avoidance resulting from a pre-crash braking DA feature. Analysis of changes in driver head location during 470 hard braking events in a naturalistic driving study found that drivers' head positions were mostly in the center position before the braking onset, while the percentage of time drivers leaning forward or backward increased significantly after the braking onset. Parametric studies with a total of 4800 MADYMO simulations showed that both delta-V and occupant pre-crash posture had pronounced effects on occupant injury risks and on the optimal restraint designs. By combining the results for the delta-V and head position distribution changes, a weighted average of injury risk reduction of 17% and 48% was predicted by the 50th percentile Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) model and human body model, respectively, with the assumption that the restraint system can adapt to the specific delta-V and pre-crash posture. This study demonstrated the potential for further reducing occupant injury risk in frontal crashes by the integration of a passive safety system with a DA feature. Future analyses considering more vehicle models, various crash conditions, and variations of occupant characteristics, such as age, gender, weight, and height, are necessary to further investigate the potential capability of integrating passive and DA or active safety systems.

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

[Eco-epidemiology: towards epidemiology of complexity].

PubMed

Bizouarn, Philippe

2016-05-01

In order to solve public health problems posed by the epidemiology of risk factors centered on the individual and neglecting the causal processes linking the risk factors with the health outcomes, Mervyn Susser proposed a multilevel epidemiology called eco-epidemiology, addressing the interdependence of individuals and their connection with molecular, individual, societal, environmental levels of organization participating in the causal disease processes. The aim of this epidemiology is to integrate more than a level of organization in design, analysis and interpretation of health problems. After presenting the main criticisms of risk-factor epidemiology focused on the individual, we will try to show how eco-epidemiology and its development could help to understand the need for a broader and integrative epidemiology, in which studies designed to identify risk factors would be balanced by studies designed to answer other questions equally vital to public health. © 2016 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Exposure Assessment of Chemicals from Packaging Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poças, Maria De Fátima; Hogg, Timothy

A variety of chemicals may enter our food supply, by means of intentional or unintentional addition, at different stages of the food chain. These chemicals include food additives, pesticide residues, environmental contaminants, mycotox-ins, flavoring substances, and micronutrients. Packaging systems and other food-contact materials are also a source of chemicals contaminating food products and beverages. Monitoring exposure to these chemicals has become an integral part of ensuring the safety of the food supply. Within the context of the risk analysis approach and more specifically as an integral part of risk assessment procedures, the exercise known as exposure assessment is crucial in providing data to allow sound judgments concerning risks to human health. The exercise of obtaining this data is part of the process of revealing sources of contamination and assessing the effectiveness of strategies for minimizing the risk from chemical contamination in the food supply (Lambe, 2002).

Use of Metabolomics as a Complementary Omic Approach to Implement Risk Criteria for First-Degree Relatives of Gastric Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Miolo, Gianmaria; Caggiari, Laura; De Zorzi, Mariangela; Steffan, Agostino

2018-01-01

A positive family history is a strong and consistently reported risk factor for gastric cancer (GC). So far, it has been demonstrated that serum pepsinogens (PGs), and gastrin 17 (G17) are useful for screening individuals at elevated risk to develop atrophic gastritis but they are suboptimal biomarkers to screen individuals for GC. The main purpose of this study was to investigate serum metabolomic profiles to find additional biomarkers that could be integrated with serum PGs and G17 to improve the diagnosis of GC and the selection of first-degree relatives (FDR) at higher risk of GC development. Serum metabolomic profiles included 188 serum metabolites, covering amino acids, biogenic amines, acylcarnitines, phosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins and hexoses. Serum metabolomic profiles were performed with tandem mass spectrometry using the Biocrates AbsoluteIDQ p180 kit. The initial cohort (training set) consisted of n = 49 GC patients and n = 37 FDR. Differential metabolomic signatures among the two groups were investigated by univariate and multivariate partial least square differential analysis. The most significant metabolites were further selected and validated in an independent group of n = 22 GC patients and n = 17 FDR (validation set). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the diagnostic power and the optimal cut-off for each of the discriminant markers. Multivariate analysis was applied to associate the selected serum metabolites, PGs, G17 and risk factors such as age, gender and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection with the GC and FDR has been performed and an integrative risk prediction algorithm was developed. In the training set, 40 metabolites mainly belonging to phospholipids and acylcarnitines classes were differentially expressed between GC and FDR. Out of these 40 metabolites, 9 were further confirmed in the validation set. Compared with FDR, GC patients were characterized by lower levels of hydroxylated sphingomyelins (SM(OH)22:1, SM(OH)22:2, SM(OH)24:1) and phosphatidylcholines (PC ae 40:1, PC ae 42:2, PC ae 42:3) and by higher levels of acylcarnitines derivatives (C2, C16, C18:1). The specificity and sensitivity of the integrative risk prediction analysis of metabolites for GC was 73.47% and 83.78% respectively with an area under the curve of the ROC curve of 0.811 that improves to 0.90 when metabolites were integrated with the serum PGs. The predictive risk algorithm composed of the C16, SM(OH)22:1 and PG-II serum levels according to the age of individuals, could be used to stratify FDR at high risk of GC development, and then this can be addressed with diagnostic gastroscopy. PMID:29518896

Sparse models for correlative and integrative analysis of imaging and genetic data

PubMed Central

Lin, Dongdong; Cao, Hongbao; Calhoun, Vince D.

2014-01-01

The development of advanced medical imaging technologies and high-throughput genomic measurements has enhanced our ability to understand their interplay as well as their relationship with human behavior by integrating these two types of datasets. However, the high dimensionality and heterogeneity of these datasets presents a challenge to conventional statistical methods; there is a high demand for the development of both correlative and integrative analysis approaches. Here, we review our recent work on developing sparse representation based approaches to address this challenge. We show how sparse models are applied to the correlation and integration of imaging and genetic data for biomarker identification. We present examples on how these approaches are used for the detection of risk genes and classification of complex diseases such as schizophrenia. Finally, we discuss future directions on the integration of multiple imaging and genomic datasets including their interactions such as epistasis. PMID:25218561

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Development Risk Methodology for Whole Systems Trade Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding...JCIDS - Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System L - Likelihood MS - Milestone O&S - Operations and Sustainment P.95 - 95th...and their consequences. These dimensions are: performance, unit cost, operations & sustainment (O&S) cost, development risk, and growth potential

Analysis of labour risks in the Spanish industrial aerospace sector.

PubMed

Laguardia, Juan; Rubio, Emilio; Garcia, Ana; Garcia-Foncillas, Rafael

2016-01-01

Labour risk prevention is an activity integrated within Safety and Hygiene at Work in Spain. In 2003, the Electronic Declaration for Accidents at Work, Delt@ (DELTA) was introduced. The industrial aerospace sector is subject to various risks. Our objective is to analyse the Spanish Industrial Aerospace Sector (SIAS) using the ACSOM methodology to assess its labour risks and to prioritise preventive actions. The SIAS and the Services Subsector (SS) were created and the relevant accident rate data were obtained. The ACSOM method was applied through double contrast (deviation and translocation) of the SIAS or SS risk polygon with the considered pattern, accidents from all sectors (ACSOM G) or the SIAS. A list of risks was obtained, ordered by action phases. In the SIAS vs. ACSOM G analysis, radiation risks were the worst, followed by overstrains. Accidents caused by living beings were also significant in the SS vs. SIAE, which will be able to be used to improve Risk Prevention. Radiation is the most significant risk in the SIAS and the SS. Preventive actions will be primary and secondary. ACSOM has shown itself to be a valid tool for the analysis of labour risks.

ASIL determination for motorbike's Electronics Throttle Control System (ETCS) mulfunction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaman Rokhani, Fakhrul; Rahman, Muhammad Taqiuddin Abdul; Ain Kamsani, Noor; Sidek, Roslina Mohd; Saripan, M. Iqbal; Samsudin, Khairulmizam; Khair Hassan, Mohd

2017-11-01

Electronics Throttle Control System (ETCS) is the principal electronic unit in all fuel injection engine motorbike, augmenting the engine performance efficiency in comparison to the conventional carburetor based engine. ETCS is regarded as a safety-critical component, whereby ETCS malfunction can cause unintended acceleration or deceleration event, which can be hazardous to riders. In this study, Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment, an ISO26262 functional safety standard analysis has been applied on motorbike's ETCS to determine the required automotive safety integrity level. Based on the analysis, the established automotive safety integrity level can help to derive technical and functional safety measures for ETCS development.

Integration of Population-Level Genotype Data with Functional Annotation Reveals Over-Representation of Long Noncoding RNAs at Ovarian Cancer Susceptibility Loci.

PubMed

Reid, Brett M; Permuth, Jennifer B; Chen, Y Ann; Teer, Jamie K; Monteiro, Alvaro N A; Chen, Zhihua; Tyrer, Jonathan; Berchuck, Andrew; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Doherty, Jennifer A; Goode, Ellen L; Iverson, Edwin S; Lawrenson, Kate; Pearce, Celeste L; Pharoah, Paul D; Phelan, Catherine M; Ramus, Susan J; Rossing, Mary Anne; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Cheng, Jin Q; Gayther, Simon A; Sellers, Thomas A

2017-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple loci associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) susceptibility, but further progress requires integration of epidemiology and biology to illuminate true risk loci below genome-wide significance levels (P < 5 × 10 -8 ). Most risk SNPs lie within non-protein-encoding regions, and we hypothesize that long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) genes are enriched at EOC risk regions and represent biologically relevant functional targets. Using imputed GWAS data from about 18,000 invasive EOC cases and 34,000 controls of European ancestry, the GENCODE (v19) lncRNA database was used to annotate SNPs from 13,442 lncRNAs for permutation-based enrichment analysis. Tumor expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis was performed for sub-genome-wide regions (1 × 10 -5 > P > 5 × 10 -8 ) overlapping lncRNAs. Of 5,294 EOC-associated SNPs (P < 1.0 × 10 -5 ), 1,464 (28%) mapped within 53 unique lncRNAs and an additional 3,484 (66%) SNPs were correlated (r 2 > 0.2) with SNPs within 115 lncRNAs. EOC-associated SNPs comprised 130 independent regions, of which 72 (55%) overlapped with lncRNAs, representing a significant enrichment (P = 5.0 × 10 -4 ) that was more pronounced among a subset of 5,401 lncRNAs with active epigenetic regulation in normal ovarian tissue. EOC-associated lncRNAs and their putative promoters and transcription factors were enriched for biologically relevant pathways and eQTL analysis identified five novel putative risk regions with allele-specific effects on lncRNA gene expression. lncRNAs are significantly enriched at EOC risk regions, suggesting a mechanistic role for lncRNAs in driving predisposition to EOC. lncRNAs represent key candidates for integrative epidemiologic and functional studies. Further research on their biologic role in ovarian cancer is indicated. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(1); 116-25. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Preliminary candidate advanced avionics system for general aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccalla, T. M.; Grismore, F. L.; Greatline, S. E.; Birkhead, L. M.

1977-01-01

An integrated avionics system design was carried out to the level which indicates subsystem function, and the methods of overall system integration. Sufficient detail was included to allow identification of possible system component technologies, and to perform reliability, modularity, maintainability, cost, and risk analysis upon the system design. Retrofit to older aircraft, availability of this system to the single engine two place aircraft, was considered.

A retrospective likelihood approach for efficient integration of multiple omics factors in case-control association studies.

PubMed

Balliu, Brunilda; Tsonaka, Roula; Boehringer, Stefan; Houwing-Duistermaat, Jeanine

2015-03-01

Integrative omics, the joint analysis of outcome and multiple types of omics data, such as genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics data, constitute a promising approach for powerful and biologically relevant association studies. These studies often employ a case-control design, and often include nonomics covariates, such as age and gender, that may modify the underlying omics risk factors. An open question is how to best integrate multiple omics and nonomics information to maximize statistical power in case-control studies that ascertain individuals based on the phenotype. Recent work on integrative omics have used prospective approaches, modeling case-control status conditional on omics, and nonomics risk factors. Compared to univariate approaches, jointly analyzing multiple risk factors with a prospective approach increases power in nonascertained cohorts. However, these prospective approaches often lose power in case-control studies. In this article, we propose a novel statistical method for integrating multiple omics and nonomics factors in case-control association studies. Our method is based on a retrospective likelihood function that models the joint distribution of omics and nonomics factors conditional on case-control status. The new method provides accurate control of Type I error rate and has increased efficiency over prospective approaches in both simulated and real data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

An integrated risk assessment of the environmental hazards influence on Kazakhstan section (from Khorgas and Dostyk dry ports to Aktau seaport) of the international transport corridor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akiyanova, F. Zh; Arykbayeva, Z. K.; Atalikhova, A. M.; Dauilbayev, B. A.; Zinabdin, N. B.; Kubeyev, A. B.; Tkach, K. A.

2018-01-01

The article outlines research results on the assessment of natural hazards impact risk on the international transport corridors’ Kazakhstan section (from Khorgas and Dostyk dry ports to the seaport of Aktau) functioning. Based on the component-by-stage analysis of physical and geographical conditions with the use of qualimetric approach, the areas with different risk levels of natural disasters were identified. To minimize the risk of natural problems exposure, a set of environmental recommendations has been developed.

An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks.

PubMed

Huang, Chongfu; Huang, Yundong

2018-02-01

An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human factors in mission assurance: cultural influence on mission success and risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baroff, Lynn E.

2004-01-01

This paper takes the next step in the analysis, and integrates the work of organization development practitioners and experts who focus on the cultural imperatives that guide behavior in organizations.

Human exposure to chemical mixtures: Challenges for the integration of toxicology with epidemiology data in risk assessment.

PubMed

Hernández, Antonio F; Tsatsakis, Aristidis M

2017-05-01

Little is known about the potential adverse effects from longterm exposure to complex mixtures at low doses, close to health-based reference values. Traditional chemical-specific risk assessment based on animal testing may be insufficient and the lack of toxicological studies on chemical mixtures remains a major regulatory challenge. Hence, new methodologies on cumulative risk assessment are being developed but still present major limitations. Evaluation of chemical mixture effects requires an integrated and systematic approach and close collaboration across different scientific fields, particularly toxicology, epidemiology, exposure science, risk assessment and statistics for a proper integration of data from all these disciplines. Well designed and conducted epidemiological studies can take advantage of this new paradigm and can provide insight to support the correlation between humans low-dose exposures and diseases, thus avoiding the uncertainty associated with extrapolation across species. In this regard, human epidemiology studies may play a significant role in the new vision of toxicity testing. However, this type of information has not been fully considered in risk assessment, mainly due to the inherent limitations of epidemiologic studies. An integrated approach of in vivo, in vitro and in silico data, together with systematic reviews or meta-analysis of high quality epidemiological studies will improve the robustness of risk assessment of chemical mixtures and will provide a stronger basis for regulatory decisions. The ultimate goal is that experimental and mechanistic data can lend support and biological plausibility to the human epidemiological observations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

PubMed

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision-making process for chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating Allergen Analysis Within a Risk Assessment Framework: Approaches to Development of Targeted Mass Spectrometry Methods for Allergen Detection and Quantification in the iFAAM Project.

PubMed

Nitride, Chiara; Lee, Victoria; Baricevic-Jones, Ivona; Adel-Patient, Karine; Baumgartner, Sabine; Mills, E N Clare

2018-01-01

Allergen analysis is central to implementing and monitoring food allergen risk assessment and management processes by the food industry, but current methods for the determination of allergens in foods give highly variable results. The European Union-funded "Integrated Approaches to Food Allergen and Allergy Risk Management" (iFAAM) project has been working to address gaps in knowledge regarding food allergen management and analysis, including the development of novel MS and immuno-based allergen determination methods. Common allergenic food ingredients (peanut, hazelnut, walnut, cow's milk [Bos domesticus], and hen's egg [Gallus domesticus]) and common food matrixes (chocolate dessert and cookie) have been used for both clinical studies and analytical method development to ensure that the new methods are clinically relevant. Allergen molecules have been used as analytical targets and allergenic ingredients incurred into matrixes at levels close to reference doses that may trigger the use of precautionary allergen labeling. An interlaboratory method comparison has been undertaken for the determination of peanut in chocolate dessert using MS and immuno-based methods. The iFAAM approach has highlighted the need for methods to report test results in allergenic protein. This will allow food business operators to use them in risk assessments that are founded on clinical study data in which protein has been used as a measure of allergenic potency.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Trade Studies of Space Launch Architectures using Modular Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Go, Susie

2006-01-01

A top-down risk assessment in the early phases of space exploration architecture development can provide understanding and intuition of the potential risks associated with new designs and technologies. In this approach, risk analysts draw from their past experience and the heritage of similar existing systems as a source for reliability data. This top-down approach captures the complex interactions of the risk driving parts of the integrated system without requiring detailed knowledge of the parts themselves, which is often unavailable in the early design stages. Traditional probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) technologies, however, suffer several drawbacks that limit their timely application to complex technology development programs. The most restrictive of these is a dependence on static planning scenarios, expressed through fault and event trees. Fault trees incorporating comprehensive mission scenarios are routinely constructed for complex space systems, and several commercial software products are available for evaluating fault statistics. These static representations cannot capture the dynamic behavior of system failures without substantial modification of the initial tree. Consequently, the development of dynamic models using fault tree analysis has been an active area of research in recent years. This paper discusses the implementation and demonstration of dynamic, modular scenario modeling for integration of subsystem fault evaluation modules using the Space Architecture Failure Evaluation (SAFE) tool. SAFE is a C++ code that was originally developed to support NASA s Space Launch Initiative. It provides a flexible framework for system architecture definition and trade studies. SAFE supports extensible modeling of dynamic, time-dependent risk drivers of the system and functions at the level of fidelity for which design and failure data exists. The approach is scalable, allowing inclusion of additional information as detailed data becomes available. The tool performs a Monte Carlo analysis to provide statistical estimates. Example results of an architecture system reliability study are summarized for an exploration system concept using heritage data from liquid-fueled expendable Saturn V/Apollo launch vehicles.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Future Directions in Vulnerability to Depression among Youth: Integrating Risk Factors and Processes across Multiple Levels of Analysis

PubMed Central

Hankin, Benjamin L.

2014-01-01

Depression is a developmental phenomenon. Considerable progress has been made in describing the syndrome, establishing its prevalence and features, providing clues as to its etiology, and developing evidence-based treatment and prevention options. Despite considerable headway in distinct lines of vulnerability research, there is an explanatory gap in the field ability to more comprehensively explain and predict who is likely to become depressed, when, and why. Still, despite clear success in predicting moderate variance for future depression, especially with empirically rigorous methods and designs, the heterogeneous and multi-determined nature of depression suggests that additional etiologies need to be included to advance knowledge on developmental pathways to depression. This paper advocates for a multiple levels of analysis approach to investigating vulnerability to depression across the lifespan and providing a more comprehensive understanding of its etiology. One example of a multiple levels of analysis model of vulnerabilities to depression is provided that integrates the most accessible, observable factors (e.g., cognitive and temperament risks), intermediate processes and endophenotypes (e.g., information processing biases, biological stress physiology, and neural activation and connectivity), and genetic influences (e.g., candidate genes and epigenetics). Evidence for each of these factors as well as their cross-level integration is provided. Methodological and conceptual considerations important for conducting integrative, multiple levels of depression vulnerability research are discussed. Finally, translational implications for how a multiple levels of analysis perspective may confer additional leverage to reduce the global burden of depression and improve care are considered. PMID:22900513

Fleeing to Fault Zones: Incorporating Syrian Refugees into Earthquake Risk Analysis along the East Anatolian and Dead Sea Rift Fault Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B.; Paradise, T. R.

2016-12-01

The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian Fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into cities, towns, and villages—placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong shaking. Yet, displaced populations are not traditionally captured in data sources used in earthquake risk analysis or loss estimations. Accordingly, we present a district-level analysis assessing the spatial overlap of earthquake hazards and refugee locations in southeastern Turkey to determine how migration patterns are altering seismic risk in the region. Using migration estimates from the U.S. Humanitarian Information Unit, we create three district-level population scenarios that combine official population statistics, refugee camp populations, and low, median, and high bounds for integrated refugee populations. We perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alongside these population scenarios to map spatial variations in seismic risk between 2011 and late 2015. Our results show a significant relative southward increase of seismic risk for this period due to refugee migration. Additionally, we calculate earthquake fatalities for simulated earthquakes using a semi-empirical loss estimation technique to determine degree of under-estimation resulting from forgoing migration data in loss modeling. We find that including refugee populations increased casualties by 11-12% using median population estimates, and upwards of 20% using high population estimates. These results communicate the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context which unites physical, political, cultural, and socio-economic landscapes. Keywords: Earthquakes, Hazards, Loss-Estimation, Syrian Crisis, Migration, Refugees

Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

PubMed

Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-07

Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.

[Risk Management: concepts and chances for public health].

PubMed

Palm, Stefan; Cardeneo, Margareta; Halber, Marco; Schrappe, Matthias

2002-01-15

Errors are a common problem in medicine and occur as a result of a complex process involving many contributing factors. Medical errors significantly reduce the safety margin for the patient and contribute additional costs in health care delivery. In most cases adverse events cannot be attributed to a single underlying cause. Therefore an effective risk management strategy must follow a system approach, which is based on counting and analysis of near misses. The development of defenses against the undesired effects of errors should be the main focus rather than asking the question "Who blundered?". Analysis of near misses (which in this context can be compared to indicators) offers several methodological advantages as compared to the analysis of errors and adverse events. Risk management is an integral element of quality management.

FlySec: a risk-based airport security management system based on security as a service concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyriazanos, Dimitris M.; Segou, Olga E.; Zalonis, Andreas; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

Complementing the ACI/IATA efforts, the FLYSEC European H2020 Research and Innovation project (http://www.fly-sec.eu/) aims to develop and demonstrate an innovative, integrated and end-to-end airport security process for passengers, enabling a guided and streamlined procedure from the landside to airside and into the boarding gates, and offering for an operationally validated innovative concept for end-to-end aviation security. FLYSEC ambition turns through a well-structured work plan into: (i) innovative processes facilitating risk-based screening; (ii) deployment and integration of new technologies and repurposing existing solutions towards a risk-based Security paradigm shift; (iii) improvement of passenger facilitation and customer service, bringing security as a real service in the airport of tomorrow;(iv) achievement of measurable throughput improvement and a whole new level of Quality of Service; and (v) validation of the results through advanced "in-vitro" simulation and "in-vivo" pilots. On the technical side, FLYSEC achieves its ambitious goals by integrating new technologies on video surveillance, intelligent remote image processing and biometrics combined with big data analysis, open-source intelligence and crowdsourcing. Repurposing existing technologies is also in the FLYSEC objectives, such as mobile application technologies for improved passenger experience and positive boarding applications (i.e. services to facilitate boarding and landside/airside way finding) as well as RFID for carry-on luggage tracking and quick unattended luggage handling. In this paper, the authors will describe the risk based airport security management system which powers FLYSEC intelligence and serves as the backend on top of which FLYSEC's front end technologies reside for security services management, behaviour and risk analysis.

Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

2015-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

Further Confirmation of Germline Glioma Risk Variant rs78378222 in TP53 and Its Implication in Tumor Tissues via Integrative Analysis of TCGA Data

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaoming; Rajaraman, Preetha; Melin, Beatrice S.; Chung, Charles C.; Zhang, Weijia; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Michaud, Dominique; Yeager, Meredith; Ahlbom, Anders; Albanes, Demetrius; Andersson, Ulrika; Beane Freeman, Laura E.; Buring, Julie E.; Butler, Mary Ann; Carreón, Tania; Feychting, Maria; Gapstur, Susan M.; Gaziano, J. Michael; Giles, Graham G.; Hallmans, Goran; Henriksson, Roger; Hoffman-Bolton, Judith; Inskip, Peter D.; Kitahara, Cari M.; Le Marchand, Loic; Linet, Martha S.; Li, Shengchao; Peters, Ulrike; Purdue, Mark P.; Rothman, Nathaniel; Ruder, Avima M.; Sesso, Howard D.; Severi, Gianluca; Stampfer, Meir; Stevens, Victoria L.; Visvanathan, Kala; Wang, Sophia S.; White, Emily; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Hoover, Robert; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Hartge, Patricia; Chanock, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

We confirmed strong association of rs78378222:A>C (per allele odds ratio [OR] = 3.14; P = 6.48 × 10−11), a germline rare single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in TP53, via imputation of a genome-wide association study of glioma (1,856 cases and 4,955 controls). We subsequently performed integrative analyses on the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data for GBM (glioblastoma multiforme) and LUAD (lung adenocarcinoma). Based on SNP data, we imputed genotypes for rs78378222 and selected individuals carrying rare risk allele (C). Using RNA sequencing data, we observed aberrant transcripts with ~3 kb longer than normal for those individuals. Using exome sequencing data, we further showed that loss of haplotype carrying common protective allele (A) occurred somatically in GBM but not in LUAD. Our bioinformatic analysis suggests rare risk allele (C) disrupts mRNA termination, and an allelic loss of a genomic region harboring common protective allele (A) occurs during tumor initiation or progression for glioma. PMID:25907361

Transplacental exposure to environmental carcinogens: Association with childhood cancer risks and the role of modulating factors.

PubMed

Fucic, A; Guszak, V; Mantovani, A

2017-09-01

Biological responses to carcinogens from environmental exposure during adulthood are modulated over years or decades. Conversely, during transplacental exposure, the effects on the human foetus change within weeks, intertwining with developmental mechanisms: even short periods of transplacental exposure may be imprinted in the organism for a lifetime. The pathways leading to childhood and juvenile cancers, such as leukaemias, neuroblastoma/brain tumours, hepatoblastoma, and Willm's tumour involve prenatally-induced genomic, epigenomic and/or non-genomic effects caused by xenobiotics. Pregnant women most often live in complex environmental settings that cause transplacental exposure of the foetus to xenobiotic mixtures. Mother-child biomonitoring should integrate the analysis of chemicals/radiation present in the living and workplace environment with relevant risk modulators related to life style. The interdisciplinary approach for transplacental cancer risk assessment in high-pressure areas should be based on an integrated model for mother-child exposure estimation via profiling the exposure level by water quality analysis, usage of emission grids, and land use maps. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluation of the role of risk perception in stakeholder engagement to prevent lead exposure in an urban setting.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Lal, Pankaj; Vedwan, Neeraj; Wolde, Bernabas; Miller, Michael E

2016-12-15

Stakeholder engagement is a vital sustainable remediation practice for obtaining useful feedback and identifying societal needs. Evaluating and integrating risk perception of stakeholders into remediation and outreach efforts allows for greater insight, increases the likelihood of success and ultimately, benefits the community by protecting its members from environmental hazards. In this study, we identified risk perception factors that influenced residents' level of concern for mitigating their exposure to elevated concentrations of lead in household paint and historic fill material. Risk perception factors were assessed by an in-person survey conducted in public green spaces. The analysis of survey participants' responses indicated that their perception of risk to exposed lead was mostly influenced by the presence of hazardous materials in close proximity to their residence, the ability to address pollution, and awareness, interest, and individual accountability in mitigating environmental risks. Responses also revealed that residents considered risk of lead and soil pollution as less menacing than the presence of more immediate and perceptible risks posed by factors such as air and water pollution. In addition, the community seemed to exhibit "optimism bias" and did not identify itself at high risk to susceptible and immediate hazards, including lead exposure. This lack of concern over lead exposure created a significant obstacle to community participation in state-led education and outreach programs. By integrating risk perception analysis and increasing stakeholder engagement, we can bring more attention to this issue, educate the public about the threat of lead pollution, and efficiently use financial resources to implement a more sustainable solution. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

Prediction of Autism at 3 Years from Behavioural and Developmental Measures in High-Risk Infants: A Longitudinal Cross-Domain Classifier Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bussu, G.; Jones, E. J. H.; Charman, T.; Johnson, M. H.; Buitelaar, J. K.; Baron-Cohen, S.; Bedford, R.; Bolton, P.; Blasi, A.; Chandler, S.; Cheung, C.; Davies, K.; Elsabbagh, M.; Fernandes, J.; Gammer, I.; Garwood, H.; Gliga, T.; Guiraud, J.; Hudry, K.; Liew, M.; Lloyd-Fox, S.; Maris, H.; O'Hara, L.; Pasco, G.; Pickles, A.; Ribeiro, H.; Salomone, E.; Tucker, L.; Volein, A.

2018-01-01

We integrated multiple behavioural and developmental measures from multiple time-points using machine learning to improve early prediction of individual Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) outcome. We examined Mullen Scales of Early Learning, Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, and early ASD symptoms between 8 and 36 months in high-risk siblings (HR; n…

Integrating fire behavior models and geospatial analysis for wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Nicole M. Vaillant; Mark A. Finney

2011-01-01

Wildland fire risk assessment and fuel management planning on federal lands in the US are complex problems that require state-of-the-art fire behavior modeling and intensive geospatial analyses. Fuel management is a particularly complicated process where the benefits and potential impacts of fuel treatments must be demonstrated in the context of land management goals...

U.S. Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine Laboratory Sampling and Analysis Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-15

valuable information during the environmental health risk assessment.  EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS). IRIS is a human health assessment...information for more than 550 chemical substances containing information on human health effects that may result from exposure to various substances in the...Crystalyn E. Brown November 2016 Air Force Research Laboratory 711th Human Performance Wing School of Aerospace Medicine

Understanding and Managing Zoonotic Risk in the New Livestock Industries

PubMed Central

Waage, Jeff; Barnett, Tony; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Rushton, Jonathan; Rudge, James W.; Loevinsohn, Michael E.; Scoones, Ian; Smith, Richard D.; Cooper, Ben S.; White, Lisa J.; Goh, Shan; Horby, Peter; Wren, Brendan; Gundogdu, Ozan; Woods, Abigail; Coker, Richard J.

2013-01-01

Background: In many parts of the world, livestock production is undergoing a process of rapid intensification. The health implications of this development are uncertain. Intensification creates cheaper products, allowing more people to access animal-based foods. However, some practices associated with intensification may contribute to zoonotic disease emergence and spread: for example, the sustained use of antibiotics, concentration of animals in confined units, and long distances and frequent movement of livestock. Objectives: Here we present the diverse range of ecological, biological, and socioeconomic factors likely to enhance or reduce zoonotic risk, and identify ways in which a comprehensive risk analysis may be conducted by using an interdisciplinary approach. We also offer a conceptual framework to guide systematic research on this problem. Discussion: We recommend that interdisciplinary work on zoonotic risk should take into account the complexity of risk environments, rather than limiting studies to simple linear causal relations between risk drivers and disease emergence and/or spread. In addition, interdisciplinary integration is needed at different levels of analysis, from the study of risk environments to the identification of policy options for risk management. Conclusion: Given rapid changes in livestock production systems and their potential health implications at the local and global level, the problem we analyze here is of great importance for environmental health and development. Although we offer a systematic interdisciplinary approach to understand and address these implications, we recognize that further research is needed to clarify methodological and practical questions arising from the integration of the natural and social sciences. PMID:23665854

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integration of landslide susceptibility products in the environmental plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, Federica; Reichenbach, Paola; Rossi, Mauro; Cardinali, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

2015-04-01

Landslides are one of the most destructive natural hazard that causes damages to urban area worldwide. The knowledge of where a landslide could occur is essential for the strategic management of the territory and for a good urban planning . In this contest landslide susceptibility zoning (LSZ) is crucial to provide information on the degree to which an area can be affected by future slope movements. Despite landslide susceptibility maps have been prepared extensively during the last decades, there are few examples of application is in the environmental plans (EP). In this work we present a proposal for the integration of the landslide inventory map with the following landslide susceptibility products: (i) landslide susceptibility zonation , (ii) the associated error map and (iii) the susceptibility uncertainty map. Moreover we proposed to incorporate detailed morphological studies for the evaluation of landslide risk associated to local parceling plan. The integration of all this information is crucial for the management of landslide risk in urban expansions forecasts. Municipality, province and regional administration are often not able to support the costs of landslide risk evaluation for extensive areas but should concentrate their financial resources to specific hazardous and unsafe situations defined by the result of the integration of landslide susceptibility products. Zonation and detail morphological analysis should be performed taking into account the existing laws and regulations, and could become a starting point to discuss new regulations for the landslide risk management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Almajali, Anas; Rice, Eric; Viswanathan, Arun

This paper presents a systems analysis approach to characterizing the risk of a Smart Grid to a load-drop attack. A characterization of the risk is necessary for the design of detection and remediation strategies to address the consequences of such attacks. Using concepts from systems health management and system engineering, this work (a) first identifies metrics that can be used to generate constraints for security features, and (b) lays out an end-to-end integrated methodology using separate network and power simulations to assess system risk. We demonstrate our approach by performing a systems-style analysis of a load-drop attack implemented over themore » AMI subsystem and targeted at destabilizing the underlying power grid.« less

Ecological Risk Assessment with MCDM of Some Invasive Alien Plants in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Guowen; Chen, Weiguang; Lin, Meizhen; Zheng, Yanling; Guo, Peiguo; Zheng, Yisheng

Alien plant invasion is an urgent global issue that threatens the sustainable development of the ecosystem health. The study of its ecological risk assessment (ERA) could help us to prevent and reduce the invasion risk more effectively. Based on the theory of ERA and methods of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM), and through the analyses of the characteristics and processes of alien plant invasion, this paper discusses the methodologies of ERA of alien plant invasion. The assessment procedure consisted of risk source analysis, receptor analysis, exposure and hazard assessment, integral assessment, and countermeasure of risk management. The indicator system of risk source assessment as well as the indices and formulas applied to measure the ecological loss and risk were established, and the method for comprehensively assessing the ecological risk of alien plant invasion was worked out. The result of ecological risk analysis to 9 representative invasive alien plants in China shows that the ecological risk of Erigeron annuus, Ageratum conyzoides, Alternanthera philoxeroides and Mikania midrantha is high (grade1-2), that of Oxalis corymbosa and Wedelia chinensis comes next (grade3), while Mirabilis jalapa, Pilea microphylla and Calendula officinalis of the last (grade 4). Risk strategies are put forward on this basis.

Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

2011-07-01

The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

A novel approach for evaluating the risk of health care failure modes.

PubMed

Chang, Dong Shang; Chung, Jenq Hann; Sun, Kuo Lung; Yang, Fu Chiang

2012-12-01

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) can be employed to reduce medical errors by identifying the risk ranking of the health care failure modes and taking priority action for safety improvement. The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel approach of data analysis. The approach is to integrate FMEA and a mathematical tool-Data envelopment analysis (DEA) with "slack-based measure" (SBM), in the field of data analysis. The risk indexes (severity, occurrence, and detection) of FMEA are viewed as multiple inputs of DEA. The practicality and usefulness of the proposed approach is illustrated by one case of health care. Being a systematic approach for improving the service quality of health care, the approach can offer quantitative corrective information of risk indexes that thereafter reduce failure possibility. For safety improvement, these new targets of the risk indexes could be used for management by objectives. But FMEA cannot provide quantitative corrective information of risk indexes. The novel approach can surely overcome this chief shortcoming of FMEA. After combining DEA SBM model with FMEA, the two goals-increase of patient safety, medical cost reduction-can be together achieved.

Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

PubMed

Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-Wen

2016-01-25

The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geothermal Play-Fairway Analysis of the Tatun Volcano Group, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yan-Ru; Song, Sheng-Rong

2017-04-01

Geothermal energy is a sustainable and low-emission energy resource. It has the advantage of low-cost and withstanding nature hazards. Taiwan is located on the western Ring of Fire and characteristic of widespread hot spring and high surface heat flows, especially on the north of Taiwan. Many previous studies reveal that the Tatun Volcano Group (TVG) has great potential to develop the geothermal energy. However, investment in geothermal development has inherent risk and how to reduce the exploration risk is the most important. The exploration risk can be lowered by using the play-fairway analysis (PFA) that integrates existing data representing the composite risk segments in the region in order to define the exploration strategy. As a result, this study has adapted this logic for geothermal exploration in TVG. There are two necessary factors in geothermal energy, heat and permeability. They are the composite risk segments for geothermal play-fairway analysis. This study analyzes existing geologic, geophysical and geochemical data to construct the heat and permeability potential models. Heat potential model is based on temperature gradient, temperature of hot spring, proximity to hot spring, hydrothermal alteration zones, helium isotope ratios, and magnetics. Permeability potential model is based on fault zone, minor fault, and micro-earthquake activities. Then, these two potential models are weighted by using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and combined to rank geothermal favorability. Uncertainty model is occurred by the quality of data and spatial accuracy of data. The goal is to combine the potential model with the uncertainty model as a risk map to find the best drilling site for geothermal exploration in TVG. Integrated results indicate where geothermal potential is the highest and provide the best information for those who want to develop the geothermal exploration in TVG.

Network-Based Integration of GWAS and Gene Expression Identifies a HOX-Centric Network Associated with Serous Ovarian Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Kar, Siddhartha P; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Li, Qiyuan; Lawrenson, Kate; Aben, Katja K H; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Baker, Helen; Bandera, Elisa V; Bean, Yukie T; Beckmann, Matthias W; Berchuck, Andrew; Bisogna, Maria; Bjørge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chen, Yian Ann; Chen, Zhihua; Cook, Linda S; Cramer, Daniel; Cunningham, Julie M; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Dennis, Joe; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A; Dörk, Thilo; du Bois, Andreas; Dürst, Matthias; Eccles, Diana; Easton, Douglas F; Edwards, Robert P; Ekici, Arif B; Fasching, Peter A; Fridley, Brooke L; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goode, Ellen L; Goodman, Marc T; Grownwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A T; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Estrid; Hogdall, Claus K; Hosono, Satoyo; Iversen, Edwin S; Jakubowska, Anna; Paul, James; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y; Kjaer, Susanne K; Kelemen, Linda E; Kellar, Melissa; Kelley, Joseph; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Krakstad, Camilla; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D; Lee, Alice W; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A; Liang, Dong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R; McNeish, Iain A; Menon, Usha; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B; Narod, Steven A; Nedergaard, Lotte; Ness, Roberta B; Nevanlinna, Heli; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Phelan, Catherine M; Pike, Malcolm C; Poole, Elizabeth M; Ramus, Susan J; Risch, Harvey A; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B; Rzepecka, Iwona K; Salvesen, Helga B; Schildkraut, Joellen M; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara E; Tangen, Ingvild L; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L; Thompson, Pamela J; Timorek, Agnieszka; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Tworoger, Shelley S; van Altena, Anne M; Van Nieuwenhuysen, Els; Vergote, Ignace; Vierkant, Robert A; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Walsh, Christine; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S; Wicklund, Kristine G; Wilkens, Lynne R; Woo, Yin-Ling; Wu, Xifeng; Wu, Anna; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Sellers, Thomas A; Monteiro, Alvaro N A; Freedman, Matthew L; Gayther, Simon A; Pharoah, Paul D P

2015-10-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have so far reported 12 loci associated with serous epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk. We hypothesized that some of these loci function through nearby transcription factor (TF) genes and that putative target genes of these TFs as identified by coexpression may also be enriched for additional EOC risk associations. We selected TF genes within 1 Mb of the top signal at the 12 genome-wide significant risk loci. Mutual information, a form of correlation, was used to build networks of genes strongly coexpressed with each selected TF gene in the unified microarray dataset of 489 serous EOC tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Genes represented in this dataset were subsequently ranked using a gene-level test based on results for germline SNPs from a serous EOC GWAS meta-analysis (2,196 cases/4,396 controls). Gene set enrichment analysis identified six networks centered on TF genes (HOXB2, HOXB5, HOXB6, HOXB7 at 17q21.32 and HOXD1, HOXD3 at 2q31) that were significantly enriched for genes from the risk-associated end of the ranked list (P < 0.05 and FDR < 0.05). These results were replicated (P < 0.05) using an independent association study (7,035 cases/21,693 controls). Genes underlying enrichment in the six networks were pooled into a combined network. We identified a HOX-centric network associated with serous EOC risk containing several genes with known or emerging roles in serous EOC development. Network analysis integrating large, context-specific datasets has the potential to offer mechanistic insights into cancer susceptibility and prioritize genes for experimental characterization. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Network-based integration of GWAS and gene expression identifies a HOX-centric network associated with serous ovarian cancer risk

PubMed Central

Kar, Siddhartha P.; Tyrer, Jonathan P.; Li, Qiyuan; Lawrenson, Kate; Aben, Katja K.H.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Antonenkova, Natalia; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Baker, Helen; Bandera, Elisa V.; Bean, Yukie T.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Berchuck, Andrew; Bisogna, Maria; Bjørge, Line; Bogdanova, Natalia; Brinton, Louise; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Butzow, Ralf; Campbell, Ian; Carty, Karen; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chen, Yian Ann; Chen, Zhihua; Cook, Linda S.; Cramer, Daniel; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cybulski, Cezary; Dansonka-Mieszkowska, Agnieszka; Dennis, Joe; Dicks, Ed; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Dörk, Thilo; du Bois, Andreas; Dürst, Matthias; Eccles, Diana; Easton, Douglas F.; Edwards, Robert P.; Ekici, Arif B.; Fasching, Peter A.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Gao, Yu-Tang; Gentry-Maharaj, Aleksandra; Giles, Graham G.; Glasspool, Rosalind; Goode, Ellen L.; Goodman, Marc T.; Grownwald, Jacek; Harrington, Patricia; Harter, Philipp; Hein, Alexander; Heitz, Florian; Hildebrandt, Michelle A.T.; Hillemanns, Peter; Hogdall, Estrid; Hogdall, Claus K.; Hosono, Satoyo; Iversen, Edwin S.; Jakubowska, Anna; Paul, James; Jensen, Allan; Ji, Bu-Tian; Karlan, Beth Y; Kjaer, Susanne K.; Kelemen, Linda E.; Kellar, Melissa; Kelley, Joseph; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Krakstad, Camilla; Kupryjanczyk, Jolanta; Lambrechts, Diether; Lambrechts, Sandrina; Le, Nhu D.; Lee, Alice W.; Lele, Shashi; Leminen, Arto; Lester, Jenny; Levine, Douglas A.; Liang, Dong; Lissowska, Jolanta; Lu, Karen; Lubinski, Jan; Lundvall, Lene; Massuger, Leon; Matsuo, Keitaro; McGuire, Valerie; McLaughlin, John R.; McNeish, Iain A.; Menon, Usha; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Narod, Steven A.; Nedergaard, Lotte; Ness, Roberta B.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Odunsi, Kunle; Olson, Sara H.; Orlow, Irene; Orsulic, Sandra; Weber, Rachel Palmieri; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pejovic, Tanja; Pelttari, Liisa M.; Permuth-Wey, Jennifer; Phelan, Catherine M.; Pike, Malcolm C.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Ramus, Susan J.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rosen, Barry; Rossing, Mary Anne; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Rudolph, Anja; Runnebaum, Ingo B.; Rzepecka, Iwona K.; Salvesen, Helga B.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Schwaab, Ira; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Shvetsov, Yurii B; Siddiqui, Nadeem; Sieh, Weiva; Song, Honglin; Southey, Melissa C.; Sucheston-Campbell, Lara E.; Tangen, Ingvild L.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Terry, Kathryn L.; Thompson, Pamela J; Timorek, Agnieszka; Tsai, Ya-Yu; Tworoger, Shelley S.; van Altena, Anne M.; Van Nieuwenhuysen, Els; Vergote, Ignace; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Walsh, Christine; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wilkens, Lynne R.; Woo, Yin-Ling; Wu, Xifeng; Wu, Anna; Yang, Hannah; Zheng, Wei; Ziogas, Argyrios; Sellers, Thomas A.; Monteiro, Alvaro N. A.; Freedman, Matthew L.; Gayther, Simon A.; Pharoah, Paul D. P.

2015-01-01

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have so far reported 12 loci associated with serous epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk. We hypothesized that some of these loci function through nearby transcription factor (TF) genes and that putative target genes of these TFs as identified by co-expression may also be enriched for additional EOC risk associations. Methods We selected TF genes within 1 Mb of the top signal at the 12 genome-wide significant risk loci. Mutual information, a form of correlation, was used to build networks of genes strongly co-expressed with each selected TF gene in the unified microarray data set of 489 serous EOC tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Genes represented in this data set were subsequently ranked using a gene-level test based on results for germline SNPs from a serous EOC GWAS meta-analysis (2,196 cases/4,396 controls). Results Gene set enrichment analysis identified six networks centered on TF genes (HOXB2, HOXB5, HOXB6, HOXB7 at 17q21.32 and HOXD1, HOXD3 at 2q31) that were significantly enriched for genes from the risk-associated end of the ranked list (P<0.05 and FDR<0.05). These results were replicated (P<0.05) using an independent association study (7,035 cases/21,693 controls). Genes underlying enrichment in the six networks were pooled into a combined network. Conclusion We identified a HOX-centric network associated with serous EOC risk containing several genes with known or emerging roles in serous EOC development. Impact Network analysis integrating large, context-specific data sets has the potential to offer mechanistic insights into cancer susceptibility and prioritize genes for experimental characterization. PMID:26209509

The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

2012-12-01

The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction), which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Flood Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures and integrates, for the first time, ecological concerns and climate change adaptation in flood management strategies.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cirillo, William M.; Earle, Kevin D.; Goodliff, Kandyce E.; Reeves, J. D.; Stromgren, Chel; Andraschko, Mark R.; Merrill, R. Gabe

2008-01-01

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Conducting financial due diligence of medical practices.

PubMed

Louiselle, P

1995-12-01

Many healthcare organizations are acquiring medical practices in an effort to build more integrated systems of healthcare products and services. This acquisition activity must be approached cautiously to ensure that medical practices being acquired do not have deficiencies that would jeopardize integration efforts. Conducting a thorough due diligence analysis of medical practices before finalizing the transaction can limit the acquiring organizations' legal and financial exposure and is a necessary component to the acquisition process. The author discusses the components of a successful financial due diligence analysis and addresses some of the risk factors in a practice acquisition.

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge : failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establ...

Capacity of scour-damaged bridges, part 2 : Integrated Analysis Program (IAP) - a program for the analysis of lateral performance of pile-supported structures under scour conditions, [technical summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

Scour is the removal of soils in the vicinity of bridge foundations, resulting in a reduced capacity of the foundations, which can increase the risk of bridge failure. To minimize bridge failure, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) has establis...

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

Using software security analysis to verify the secure socket layer (SSL) protocol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powell, John D.

2004-01-01

nal Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have tens of thousands of networked computer systems and applications. Software Security vulnerabilities present risks such as lost or corrupted data, information the3, and unavailability of critical systems. These risks represent potentially enormous costs to NASA. The NASA Code Q research initiative 'Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach '' offers, among its capabilities, formal verification of software security properties, through the use of model based verification (MBV) to address software security risks. [1,2,3,4,5,6] MBV is a formal approach to software assurance that combines analysis of software, via abstract models, with technology, such as model checkers, that provide automation of the mechanical portions of the analysis process. This paper will discuss: The need for formal analysis to assure software systems with respect to software and why testing alone cannot provide it. The means by which MBV with a Flexible Modeling Framework (FMF) accomplishes the necessary analysis task. An example of FMF style MBV in the verification of properties over the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) communication protocol as a demonstration.

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

A semi-quantitative approach to GMO risk-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Morris, E Jane

2011-10-01

In many countries there are increasing calls for the benefits of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to be considered as well as the risks, and for a risk-benefit analysis to form an integral part of GMO regulatory frameworks. This trend represents a shift away from the strict emphasis on risks, which is encapsulated in the Precautionary Principle that forms the basis for the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, and which is reflected in the national legislation of many countries. The introduction of risk-benefit analysis of GMOs would be facilitated if clear methodologies were available to support the analysis. Up to now, methodologies for risk-benefit analysis that would be applicable to the introduction of GMOs have not been well defined. This paper describes a relatively simple semi-quantitative methodology that could be easily applied as a decision support tool, giving particular consideration to the needs of regulators in developing countries where there are limited resources and experience. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the release of an insect resistant maize variety in South Africa as a case study. The applicability of the method in the South African regulatory system is also discussed, as an example of what might be involved in introducing changes into an existing regulatory process.

The Necessity of Functional Analysis for Space Exploration Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Breidenthal, Julian C.

2011-01-01

As NASA moves toward expanded commercial spaceflight within its human exploration capability, there is increased emphasis on how to allocate responsibilities between government and commercial organizations to achieve coordinated program objectives. The practice of program-level functional analysis offers an opportunity for improved understanding of collaborative functions among heterogeneous partners. Functional analysis is contrasted with the physical analysis more commonly done at the program level, and is shown to provide theoretical performance, risk, and safety advantages beneficial to a government-commercial partnership. Performance advantages include faster convergence to acceptable system solutions; discovery of superior solutions with higher commonality, greater simplicity and greater parallelism by substituting functional for physical redundancy to achieve robustness and safety goals; and greater organizational cohesion around program objectives. Risk advantages include avoidance of rework by revelation of some kinds of architectural and contractual mismatches before systems are specified, designed, constructed, or integrated; avoidance of cost and schedule growth by more complete and precise specifications of cost and schedule estimates; and higher likelihood of successful integration on the first try. Safety advantages include effective delineation of must-work and must-not-work functions for integrated hazard analysis, the ability to formally demonstrate completeness of safety analyses, and provably correct logic for certification of flight readiness. The key mechanism for realizing these benefits is the development of an inter-functional architecture at the program level, which reveals relationships between top-level system requirements that would otherwise be invisible using only a physical architecture. This paper describes the advantages and pitfalls of functional analysis as a means of coordinating the actions of large heterogeneous organizations for space exploration programs.

Racial Differences in Perceptions of Air Pollution Health Risk: Does Environmental Exposure Matter?

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Jayajit; Collins, Timothy W.; Grineski, Sara E.; Maldonado, Alejandra

2017-01-01

This article extends environmental risk perception research by exploring how potential health risk from exposure to industrial and vehicular air pollutants, as well as other contextual and socio-demographic factors, influence racial/ethnic differences in air pollution health risk perception. Our study site is the Greater Houston metropolitan area, Texas, USA—a racially/ethnically diverse area facing high levels of exposure to pollutants from both industrial and transportation sources. We integrate primary household-level survey data with estimates of excess cancer risk from ambient exposure to industrial and on-road mobile source emissions of air toxics obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Statistical analysis is based on multivariate generalized estimation equation models which account for geographic clustering of surveyed households. Our results reveal significantly higher risk perceptions for non-Hispanic Black residents and those exposed to greater cancer risk from industrial pollutants, and also indicate that gender influences the relationship between race/ethnicity and air pollution risk perception. These findings highlight the need to incorporate measures of environmental health risk exposure in future analysis of social disparities in risk perception. PMID:28125059

Geographic integration of hepatitis C virus: A global threat

PubMed Central

Daw, Mohamed A; El-Bouzedi, Abdallah A; Ahmed, Mohamed O; Dau, Aghnyia A; Agnan, Mohamed M; Drah, Aisha M

2016-01-01

AIM To assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) geographic integration, evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of HCV worldwide and propose how to diminish its burden. METHODS A literature search of published articles was performed using PubMed, MEDLINE and other related databases up to December 2015. A critical data assessment and analysis regarding the epidemiological integration of HCV was carried out using the meta-analysis method. RESULTS The data indicated that HCV has been integrated immensely over time and through various geographical regions worldwide. The history of HCV goes back to 1535 but between 1935 and 1965 it exhibited a rapid, exponential spread. This integration is clearly seen in the geo-epidemiology and phylogeography of HCV. HCV integration can be mirrored either as intra-continental or trans-continental. Migration, drug trafficking and HCV co-infection, together with other potential risk factors, have acted as a vehicle for this integration. Evidence shows that the geographic integration of HCV has been important in the global and regional distribution of HCV. CONCLUSION HCV geographic integration is clearly evident and this should be reflected in the prevention and treatment of this ongoing pandemic. PMID:27878104

Interactive decision support in hepatic surgery

PubMed Central

Dugas, Martin; Schauer, Rolf; Volk, Andreas; Rau, Horst

2002-01-01

Background Hepatic surgery is characterized by complicated operations with a significant peri- and postoperative risk for the patient. We developed a web-based, high-granular research database for comprehensive documentation of all relevant variables to evaluate new surgical techniques. Methods To integrate this research system into the clinical setting, we designed an interactive decision support component. The objective is to provide relevant information for the surgeon and the patient to assess preoperatively the risk of a specific surgical procedure. Based on five established predictors of patient outcomes, the risk assessment tool searches for similar cases in the database and aggregates the information to estimate the risk for an individual patient. Results The physician can verify the analysis and exclude manually non-matching cases according to his expertise. The analysis is visualized by means of a Kaplan-Meier plot. To evaluate the decision support component we analyzed data on 165 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (period 1996–2000). The similarity search provides a two-peak distribution indicating there are groups of similar patients and singular cases which are quite different to the average. The results of the risk estimation are consistent with the observed survival data, but must be interpreted with caution because of the limited number of matching reference cases. Conclusion Critical issues for the decision support system are clinical integration, a transparent and reliable knowledge base and user feedback. PMID:12003639

Using In Vitro High-Throughput Screening Data for Predicting Benzo[k]Fluoranthene Human Health Hazards.

PubMed

Burgoon, Lyle D; Druwe, Ingrid L; Painter, Kyle; Yost, Erin E

2017-02-01

Today there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce and the environment. The potential human health risks are unknown for the vast majority of these chemicals as they lack human health risk assessments, toxicity reference values, and risk screening values. We aim to use computational toxicology and quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) technologies to fill these data gaps, and begin to prioritize these chemicals for additional assessment. In this pilot, we demonstrate how we were able to identify that benzo[k]fluoranthene may induce DNA damage and steatosis using qHTS data and two separate adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). We also demonstrate how bootstrap natural spline-based meta-regression can be used to integrate data across multiple assay replicates to generate a concentration-response curve. We used this analysis to calculate an in vitro point of departure of 0.751 μM and risk-specific in vitro concentrations of 0.29 μM and 0.28 μM for 1:1,000 and 1:10,000 risk, respectively, for DNA damage. Based on the available evidence, and considering that only a single HSD17B4 assay is available, we have low overall confidence in the steatosis hazard identification. This case study suggests that coupling qHTS assays with AOPs and ontologies will facilitate hazard identification. Combining this with quantitative evidence integration methods, such as bootstrap meta-regression, may allow risk assessors to identify points of departure and risk-specific internal/in vitro concentrations. These results are sufficient to prioritize the chemicals; however, in the longer term we will need to estimate external doses for risk screening purposes, such as through margin of exposure methods. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluating robustness in rank-based risk assessments of freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattson, K.M.; Angermeier, Paul

2007-01-01

Conservation planning aims to protect biodiversity by sustainng the natural physical, chemical, and biological processes within representative ecosystems. Often data to measure these components are inadequate or unavailable. The impact of human activities on ecosystem processes complicates integrity assessments and might alter ecosystem organization at multiple spatial scales. Freshwater conservation targets, such as populations and communities, are influenced by both intrinsic aquatic properties and the surrounding landscape, and locally collected data might not accurately reflect potential impacts. We suggest that changes in five major biotic drivers—energy sources, physical habitat, flow regime, water quality, and biotic interactions—might be used as surrogates to inform conservation planners of the ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems. Threats to freshwater systems might be evaluated based on their impact to these drivers to provide an overview of potential risk to conservation targets. We developed a risk-based protocol, the Ecological Risk Index (ERI), to identify watersheds with least/most risk to conservation targets. Our protocol combines risk-based components, specifically the frequency and severity of human-induced stressors, with biotic drivers and mappable land- and water-use data to provide a summary of relative risk to watersheds. We illustrate application of our protocol with a case study of the upper Tennessee River basin, USA. Differences in risk patterns among the major drainages in the basin reflect dominant land uses, such as mining and agriculture. A principal components analysis showed that localized, moderately severe threats accounted for most of the threat composition differences among our watersheds. We also found that the relative importance of threats is sensitive to the spatial grain of the analysis. Our case study demonstrates that the ERI is useful for evaluating the frequency and severity of ecosystemwide risk, which can inform local and regional conservation planning.

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

PubMed Central

Hong, Tao; Gurian, Patrick L.; Huang, Yin; Haas, Charles N.

2012-01-01

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities. PMID:22412915

Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

2015-12-01

The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

75 FR 69065 - Draft Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection..., ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS...: The draft ``Toxicological Review of Urea: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Tangible Results and Progress in Flood Risks Management with the PACTES Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costes, Murielle; Abadie, Jean-Paul; Ducuing, Jean-Louis; Denier, Jean-Paul; Stéphane

The PACTES project (Prévention et Anticipation des Crues au moyen des Techniques Spatiales), initiated by CNES and the French Ministry of Research, aims at improving flood risk management, over the following three main phases : - Prevention : support and facilitate the analysis of flood risks and socio-economic impacts (risk - Forecasting and alert : improve the capability to predict and anticipate the flooding event - Crisis management : allow better situation awareness, communication and sharing of In order to achieve its ambitious objectives, PACTES: - integrates state-of-the-art techniques and systems (integration of the overall processing chains, - takes advantage of integrating recent model developments in wheather forecasting, rainfall, In this approach, space technology is thus used in three main ways : - radar and optical earth observation data are used to produce Digital Elevation Maps, land use - earth observation data are also an input to wheather forecasting, together with ground sensors; - satellite-based telecommunication and mobile positioning. Started in December 2000, the approach taken in PACTES is to work closely with users such as civil security and civil protection organisms, fire fighter brigades and city councils for requirements gathering and during the validation phase. It has lead to the development and experimentation of an integrated pre-operational demonstrator, delivered to different types of operational users. Experimentation has taken place in three watersheds representative of different types of floods (flash and plain floods). After a breaf reminder of what the PACTES project organization and aims are, the PACTES integrated pre-operational demonstrator is presented. The main scientific inputs to flood risk management are summarized. Validation studies for the three watersheds covered by PACTES (Moselle, Hérault and Thoré) are detailed. Feedback on the PACTES tangible results on flood risk management from an user point of view are given. Costs of what an operational PACTES demonstrator could be, are discussed.

Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

PubMed Central

Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

2016-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

2012-04-01

Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Serological Biopsy Using Five Stomach-Specific Circulating Biomarkers for Gastric Cancer Risk Assessment: A Multi-Phase Study.

PubMed

Tu, Huakang; Sun, Liping; Dong, Xiao; Gong, Yuehua; Xu, Qian; Jing, Jingjing; Bostick, Roberd M; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Yuan

2017-05-01

We aimed to assess a serological biopsy using five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers-pepsinogen I (PGI), PGII, PGI/II ratio, anti-Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) antibody, and gastrin-17 (G-17)-for identifying high-risk individuals and predicting risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). Among 12,112 participants with prospective follow-up from an ongoing population-based screening program using both serology and gastroscopy in China, we conducted a multi-phase study involving a cross-sectional analysis, a follow-up analysis, and an integrative risk prediction modeling analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, the five biomarkers (especially PGII, the PGI/II ratio, and H. pylori sero-positivity) were associated with the presence of precancerous gastric lesions or GC at enrollment. In the follow-up analysis, low PGI levels and PGI/II ratios were associated with higher risk of developing GC, and both low (<0.5 pmol/l) and high (>4.7 pmol/l) G-17 levels were associated with higher risk of developing GC, suggesting a J-shaped association. In the risk prediction modeling analysis, the five biomarkers combined yielded a C statistic of 0.803 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.789-0.816) and improved prediction beyond traditional risk factors (C statistic from 0.580 to 0.811, P<0.001) for identifying precancerous lesions at enrollment, and higher serological biopsy scores based on the five biomarkers at enrollment were associated with higher risk of developing GC during follow-up (P for trend <0.001). A serological biopsy composed of the five stomach-specific circulating biomarkers could be used to identify high-risk individuals for further diagnostic gastroscopy, and to stratify individuals' risk of developing GC and thus to guide targeted screening and precision prevention.

[Risk management--a new aspect of quality assessment in intensive care medicine: first results of an analysis of the DIVI's interdisciplinary quality assessment research group].

PubMed

Stiletto, R; Röthke, M; Schäfer, E; Lefering, R; Waydhas, Ch

2006-10-01

Patient security has become one of the major aspects of clinical management in recent years. The crucial point in research was focused on malpractice. In contradiction to the economic process in non medical fields, the analysis of errors during the in-patient treatment time was neglected. Patient risk management can be defined as a structured procedure in a clinical unit with the aim to reduce harmful events. A risk point model was created based on a Delphi process and founded on the DIVI data register. The risk point model was evaluated in clinically working ICU departments participating in the register data base. The results of the risk point evaluation will be integrated in the next data base update. This might be a step to improve the reliability of the register to measure quality assessment in the ICU.

'Worst case' methodology for the initial assessment of societal risk from proposed major accident installations.

PubMed

Carter, D A; Hirst, I L

2000-01-07

This paper considers the application of one of the weighted risk indicators used by the Major Hazards Assessment Unit (MHAU) of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in formulating advice to local planning authorities on the siting of new major accident hazard installations. In such cases the primary consideration is to ensure that the proposed installation would not be incompatible with existing developments in the vicinity, as identified by the categorisation of the existing developments and the estimation of individual risk values at those developments. In addition a simple methodology, described here, based on MHAU's "Risk Integral" and a single "worst case" even analysis, is used to enable the societal risk aspects of the hazardous installation to be considered at an early stage of the proposal, and to determine the degree of analysis that will be necessary to enable HSE to give appropriate advice.

Road traffic injuries in one local health unit in the Lazio region: results of a surveillance system integrating police and health data

PubMed Central

Chini, Francesco; Farchi, Sara; Ciaramella, Ivana; Antoniozzi, Tranquillo; Rossi, Paolo Giorgi; Camilloni, Laura; Valenti, Massimo; Borgia, Piero

2009-01-01

Objective Different sources are available for the surveillance of Road Traffic injuries (RTI), but studied individually they present several limits. In this paper we present the results of a surveillance integrating healthcare data with the data gathered by the municipal police in the southeastern area of Rome (630,000 inhabitants) during the year 2003. Methods The Municipal police RTI reports, which list the exact location, circumstances and some risk factor of the crash, were searched in the emergency visit, hospitalization and mortality databases, to integrate them with the information on health consequences. A multivariate analysis was conducted to evaluate risk factors (crash circumstances, age ad gender of the casualty) associated with hospital admission following a RTI. Mapping of RTI locations was created. The locations with higher risk of accidents with severe health consequences and at higher risk for pedestrians were identified. Results According to police records 4571 RTI occurred in 2003, 75% of which led to emergency department admissions. Sixteen percent of these emergency visits ended in hospitalization, and 44 deaths were reported within 30 days of the event, most of which occurred in young men. The people with the highest risk of hospitalization after an RTI were the cyclists, pedestrians and followed by people on two-wheeled vehicles. The type of crash with the highest risk of hospitalization was head-on collision. Geographical analyses showed four clusters with higher severity of RTI. Specific attention was paid to pedestrian injuries. Analyzing the locations of RTIs involving pedestrians permitted us to rank the most dangerous streets. The roads at high risk for pedestrians identified problems in the bus stop constructions and in the placement of the zebra pedestrian crossings. Conclusion This study proves the feasibility of an integrated surveillance system of RTI by using routinely collected local data. The high-risk locations identified with the geographic analyses method in this study highlighted infrastructural problems, suggesting immediate preventive interventions. PMID:19386112

New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: Regional intercomparison of current and future risks from impact waves due to rock/ice avalanches in the Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaub, Y.; Huggel, C.; Serraino, M.; Haeberli, W.

2012-04-01

The changes in high-mountain environments are increasingly fast and complex. GIS-based models of the Swiss Alps show that numerous topographic overdeepenings are likely to appear on progressively exposed glacier beds, which are considered as potential sites of future lake formation. In many cases these newly forming lakes will be situated in an over-steepened and destabilized high-mountain environment and are, therefore, prone to impact waves from landslides. The risk of glacier lake outburst floods, endangering infrastructure, residential areas and persons further downvalley, is increasing with further lake formation and glacier recession. This risk may persist for many decades if not centuries. Future-oriented hazard assessments have to be integrative and must deal with all possible process chains. Reference studies and methodologies are still scarce, however. We present an approach to compare risks resulting from high-mountain lakes in the Swiss Alps amongst each other. Already existing lakes are thereby as much included in the analysis as future ones. The presented risk assessment approach integrates the envisaged high-mountain hazard process chain with present and future socio-economic conditions. Applying the concept of integral risk management, the hazard and damage potentials have to be analyzed. The areas that feature the topographic potential for rock/iceavalanches to reach a lake were analyzed regarding their susceptibility to slope failure including the factors slope inclination, permafrost occurrence, glacier recession and bedrock lithology. Together with the analysis of the lakes (volume and runout path of potential outburst floods), the hazard analysis of the process chain was completed. As an example, high long-term hazard potentials in the Swiss Alps have, for instance, to be expected in the area of the Great Aletsch glacier. A methodology for the assessment of the damage potential was elaborated and will be presented. In order to estimate the location of the largest damage potentials, driving forces of different spatial development scenarios for the Swiss Alps will be implemented in a land allocation model for the Swiss Alps. By bringing together hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses, a risk assessment for the entire Swiss Alps regarding lake-outburst floods triggered by impacts of rock/ice avalanches can be conducted for today, the middle of the century and even beyond.

Treatment integrity of school-based interventions with children in the journal of applied behavior analysis 1991-2005.

PubMed

McIntyre, Laura Lee; Gresham, Frank M; DiGennaro, Florence D; Reed, Derek D

2007-01-01

We reviewed all school-based experimental studies with individuals 0 to 18 years published in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) between 1991 and 2005. A total of 142 articles (152 studies) that met review criteria were included. Nearly all (95%) of these experiments provided an operational definition of the independent variable, but only 30% of the studies provided treatment integrity data. Nearly half of studies (45%) were judged to be at high risk for treatment inaccuracies. Treatment integrity data were more likely to be included in studies that used teachers, multiple treatment agents, or both. Although there was a substantial increase in reporting operational definitions of independent variables, results suggest that there was only a modest improvement in reported integrity over the past 30 years of JABA studies. Recommendations for research and practice are discussed.

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations

DOE Data Explorer

Buscheck, Thomas A.

2012-01-01

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal–CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations: An Approach to Improve Energy Recovery and Mitigate Risk: FY1 Final Report The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. Based on a range of well schemes, techno-economic analyses of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are conducted to determine the economic benefits of integrating GCS with geothermal energy production. In addition to considering CO2 injection, reservoir analyses are conducted for nitrogen (N2) injection to investigate the potential benefits of incorporating N2 injection with integrated geothermal-GCS, as well as the use of N2 injection as a potential pressure-support and working-fluid option. Phase 1 includes preliminary environmental risk assessments of integrated geothermal-GCS, with the focus on managing reservoir overpressure. Phase 1 also includes an economic survey of pipeline costs, which will be applied in Phase 2 to the analysis of CO2 conveyance costs for techno-economics analyses of integrated geothermal-GCS reservoir sites. Phase 1 also includes a geospatial GIS survey of potential integrated geothermal-GCS reservoir sites, which will be used in Phase 2 to conduct sweet-spot analyses that determine where promising geothermal resources are co-located in sedimentary settings conducive to safe CO2 storage, as well as being in adequate proximity to large stationary CO2 sources.

Community integration outcomes of people with spinal cord injury and multiple matched controls: A pilot study.

PubMed

Callaway, Libby; Enticott, Joanne; Farnworth, Louise; McDonald, Rachael; Migliorini, Christine; Willer, Barry

2017-06-01

Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is designed to influence home, social and economic participation for Scheme participants. Given the major disability reform underway, this pilot study aimed to: (i) examine community integration outcomes of people with spinal cord injury (SCI); (ii) compare findings with multiple matched controls and (iii) consider findings within the context of Australia's NDIS. Setting: Victoria, Australia. Matched analysis (people with and without SCI). Community Integration Questionnaire (CIQ). n = 40 adults with SCI (M age = 52.8 years; 61% male; 77% traumatic SCI). Matched analyses from each SCI subject aged <70 years (n = 31) with four CIQ normative data subjects (from n = 1927) was undertaken, with key demographic variables matched (age range, gender, living location and living situation). Risk of low CIQ score as a function of SCI was also examined using conditional Poisson regression. With key demographic variables held constant, small to medium effect sizes were found in favour of the normative sample, with statistically significant differences in home (ρ = 0.003) and productivity integration (ρ = 0.02). Relative risk of low home integration was significant in the SCI cohort (conditional RR (95% CI) = 3.1 (1.5-6.3), ρ = 0.001). Relative risk of low CIQ total, social integration and productivity scores did not reach significance. This cohort of SCI participants was less integrated into home and productive occupations than matched norms, holding implications for planning and allocation of supports to influence outcomes within an NDIS. Further research is necessary to understand community integration outcomes in larger matched samples. © 2016 Occupational Therapy Australia.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

76 FR 57033 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-15

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System..., ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

Developing smartphone apps for behavioural studies: The AlcoRisk app case study.

PubMed

Smith, Anthony; de Salas, Kristy; Lewis, Ian; Schüz, Benjamin

2017-08-01

Smartphone apps have emerged as valuable research tools to sample human behaviours at their time of occurrence within natural environments. Human behaviour sampling methods, such as Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA), aim to facilitate research that is situated in ecologically valid real world environments rather than laboratory environments. Researchers have trialled a range of EMA smartphone apps to sample human behaviours such as dieting, physical activity and smoking. Software development processes for EMA smartphones apps, however, are not widely documented with little guidance provided for the integration of complex multidisciplinary behavioural and technical fields. In this paper, the AlcoRisk app for studying alcohol consumption and risk taking tendencies is presented alongside a software development process that integrates these multidisciplinary fields. The software development process consists of three stages including requirements analysis, feature and interface design followed by app implementation. Results from a preliminary feasibility study support the efficacy of the AlcoRisk app's software development process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

PubMed

Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2014-10-15

The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, L. L.; Dougherty, N. S.; Liever, P. A.; West, J. S.; Smith, S. D.

2007-01-01

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management in Istanbul (MegaIST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya Menteşe, Emin; Kılıç, Osman; Baş, Mahmut; Khazai, Bijan; Ergün Konukcu, Betul; Emre Basmacı, Ahmet

2017-04-01

Decision makers need tools to understand the priorities and to set up benchmarks and track progress in their disaster risk reduction activities, so that they can justify their decisions and investments. In this regard, Megacity Indicator System for Disaster Risk Management (MegaIST), is developed in order to be used in disaster risk management studies, for decision makers and managers to establish right strategies and proper risk reduction actions, enhance resource management and investment decisions, set priorities, monitor progress in DRM and validate decisions taken with the aim of helping disaster oriented urban redevelopment, inform investors about risk profile of the city and providing a basis for dissemination and sharing of risk components with related stakeholders; by Directorate of Earthquake and Ground Research of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM). MegaIST achieves these goals by analyzing the earthquake risk in three separate but complementary sub-categories consisting of "urban seismic risk, coping capacity and disaster risk management index" in an integrated way. MegaIST model fosters its analyses by presenting the outputs in a simple and user friendly format benefiting from GIS technology that ensures the adoptability of the model's use. Urban seismic risk analysis includes two components, namely; Physical Risk and Social Vulnerability Analysis. Physical risk analysis is based on the possible physical losses (such as building damage, casualties etc.) due to an earthquake while social vulnerability is considered as a factor that increases the results of the physical losses in correlation with the level of education, health, economic status and disaster awareness/preparedness of society. Coping capacity analysis is carried out with the aim of understanding the readiness of the Municipality to respond and recover from a disaster in Istanbul can be defined both in terms of the Municipality's operational capacities - the capacity of the Municipality in terms of the demand on its resources to respond to emergencies and restore services - as well as functional capacities - the policies and planning measures at the Municipality which lead to reduction of risk and protection of people. Disaster Risk Management Index (DRMI) is used as "control system" within the conceptual framework of MegaIST. This index has been developed to understand impact of corporate governance and enforcement structures and policies on total Urban Seismic Risk and in order to make the performance evaluation. Also, DRMI is composed of macro indicators that are developed in order to monitor progress in reducing disaster risk management of institution. They are presented in four broad indicator groups: Legal and Institutional Requirements, Risk Reduction Implementation and Preparedness Activities, Readiness to Respond and Recover, and Strategy and Coordination. As a result; in MegaIST, with the identification and analysis of physical and social vulnerabilities along with coping capacity and disaster risk management performance indicators; an integrated and analytical decision support system has been established to enhance DRM process and reach to a disaster resilient urban environment.

Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

2014-01-01

To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

Aortic pulse wave velocity and HeartSCORE: improving cardiovascular risk stratification. a sub-analysis of the EDIVA (Estudo de DIstensibilidade VAscular) project.

PubMed

Pereira, T; Maldonado, J; Polónia, J; Silva, J A; Morais, J; Rodrigues, T; Marques, M

2014-04-01

HeartSCORE is a tool for assessing cardiovascular risk, basing its estimates on the relative weight of conventional cardiovascular risk factors. However, new markers of cardiovascular risk have been identified, such as aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV). The purpose of this study was to evaluate to what extent the incorporation of PWV in HeartSCORE increases its discriminative power of major cardiovascular events (MACE). This study is a sub-analysis of the EDIVA project, which is a prospective cohort, multicenter and observational study involving 2200 individuals of Portuguese nationality (1290 men and 910 women) aged between 18 and 91 years (mean 46.33 ± 13.76 years), with annual measurements of PWV (Complior). Only participants above 35 years old were included in the present re-analysis, resulting in a population of 1709 participants. All MACE - death, cerebrovascular accident, coronary accidents (coronary heart disease), peripheral arterial disease and renal failure - were recorded. During a mean follow-up period of 21.42 ± 10.76 months, there were 47 non-fatal MACE (2.1% of the sample). Cardiovascular risk was estimated in all patients based on the HeartSCORE risk factors. For the analysis, the refitted HeartSCORE and PWV were divided into three risk categories. The event-free survival at 2 years was 98.6%, 98.0% and 96.1%, respectively in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk categories of HeartSCORE (log-rank p < 0.001). The multi-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per 1 - standard deviation (SD) of MACE was 1.86 (95% CI 1.37-2.53, p < 0.001) for PWV. The risk of MACE by tertiles of PWV and risk categories of the HeartSCORE increased linearly, and the risk was particularly more pronounced in the highest tertile of PWV for any category of the HeartSCORE, demonstrating an improvement in the prediction of cardiovascular risk. It was clearly depicted a high discriminative capacity of PWV even in groups of apparent intermediate cardiovascular risk. Measures of model fit, discrimination and calibration revealed an improvement in risk classification when PWV was added to the risk-factor model. The C statistics improved from 0.69 to 0.78 (adding PWV, p = 0.005). The net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were also determined, and indicated further evidence of improvements in discrimination of the outcome when including PWV in the risk-factor model (NRI = 0.265; IDI = 0.012). The results clearly illustrate the benefits of integrating PWV in the risk assessment strategies, as advocated by HeartSCORE, insofar as it contributes to a better discriminative capacity of global cardiovascular risk, particularly in individuals with low or moderate cardiovascular risk.

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Environmental sensitivity mapping and risk assessment for oil spill along the Chennai Coast in India.

PubMed

Kankara, R S; Arockiaraj, S; Prabhu, K

2016-05-15

Integration of oil spill modeling with coastal resource information could be useful for protecting the coastal environment from oil spills. A scenario-based risk assessment and sensitivity indexing were performed for the Chennai coast by integrating a coastal resource information system and an oil spill trajectory model. The fate analysis of spilled oil showed that 55% of oil out of a total volume of 100m(3) remained in the water column, affecting 800m of the shoreline. The seasonal scenarios show major impact during the southwest (SW) and northeast (NE) monsoons and more fatal effects on marine pelagic organisms during SW monsoon. The Oil Spill Risk Assessment Modeler tool was constructed in a geographic information systems (GIS) platform to analyze the risks, sensitivity mapping, and priority indexing of resources that are likely to be affected by oil spills along the Chennai coast. The results of sensitivity mapping and the risk assessment results can help organizations take measures to combat oil spills in a timely manner. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating vegetation dryness to optimize fire risk assessment with spot vegetation satellite data in savanna ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbesselt, J.; Somers, B.; Lhermitte, S.; van Aardt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Coppin, P.

2005-10-01

The lack of information on vegetation dryness prior to the use of fire as a management tool often leads to a significant deterioration of the savanna ecosystem. This paper therefore evaluated the capacity of SPOT VEGETATION time-series to monitor the vegetation dryness (i.e., vegetation moisture content per vegetation amount) in order to optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystem of Kruger National Park in South Africa. The integrated Relative Vegetation Index approach (iRVI) to quantify the amount of herbaceous biomass at the end of the rain season and the Accumulated Relative Normalized Difference vegetation index decrement (ARND) related to vegetation moisture content were selected. The iRVI and ARND related to vegetation amount and moisture content, respectively, were combined in order to monitor vegetation dryness and optimize fire risk assessment in the savanna ecosystems. In situ fire activity data was used to evaluate the significance of the iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness for fire risk assessment. Results from the binary logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of fire risk was optimized by integration of both the vegetation quantity (iRVI) and vegetation moisture content (ARND) as statistically significant explanatory variables. Consequently, the integrated use of both iRVI and ARND to monitor vegetation dryness provides a more suitable tool for fire management and suppression compared to other traditional satellite-based fire risk assessment methods, only related to vegetation moisture content.

Genotype-Specific Minimal Residual Disease Interpretation Improves Stratification in Pediatric Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

PubMed Central

O’Connor, David; Enshaei, Amir; Bartram, Jack; Hancock, Jeremy; Harrison, Christine J.; Hough, Rachael; Samarasinghe, Sujith; Schwab, Claire; Vora, Ajay; Wade, Rachel; Moppett, John; Moorman, Anthony V.; Goulden, Nick

2018-01-01

Purpose Minimal residual disease (MRD) and genetic abnormalities are important risk factors for outcome in acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Current risk algorithms dichotomize MRD data and do not assimilate genetics when assigning MRD risk, which reduces predictive accuracy. The aim of our study was to exploit the full power of MRD by examining it as a continuous variable and to integrate it with genetics. Patients and Methods We used a population-based cohort of 3,113 patients who were treated in UKALL2003, with a median follow-up of 7 years. MRD was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction analysis of Ig/TCR gene rearrangements, and patients were assigned to a genetic subtype on the basis of immunophenotype, cytogenetics, and fluorescence in situ hybridization. To examine response kinetics at the end of induction, we log-transformed the absolute MRD value and examined its distribution across subgroups. Results MRD was log normally distributed at the end of induction. MRD distributions of patients with distinct genetic subtypes were different (P < .001). Patients with good-risk cytogenetics demonstrated the fastest disease clearance, whereas patients with high-risk genetics and T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia responded more slowly. The risk of relapse was correlated with MRD kinetics, and each log reduction in disease level reduced the risk by 20% (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83; P < .001). Although the risk of relapse was directly proportional to the MRD level within each genetic risk group, absolute relapse rate that was associated with a specific MRD value or category varied significantly by genetic subtype. Integration of genetic subtype–specific MRD values allowed more refined risk group stratification. Conclusion A single threshold for assigning patients to an MRD risk group does not reflect the response kinetics of the different genetic subtypes. Future risk algorithms should integrate genetics with MRD to accurately identify patients with the lowest and highest risk of relapse. PMID:29131699

PSP, TSP, XP, CMMI...Eating the Alphabet Soup!

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-19

Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...4 Q tit t Continuous process improvement Organizational Performance Management Causal Analysis and Resolution Level Focus Process Areas Requirements...Project Management process standardization Risk management Decision Analysis and Resolution Product Integration 2 M d R i t t anage Basic Project

76 FR 71029 - Draft Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-16

... Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-11/081A). On September 15, 2011, the... ``Toxicological Review of n-Butanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System...

The levels of analysis revisited

PubMed Central

MacDougall-Shackleton, Scott A.

2011-01-01

The term levels of analysis has been used in several ways: to distinguish between ultimate and proximate levels, to categorize different kinds of research questions and to differentiate levels of reductionism. Because questions regarding ultimate function and proximate mechanisms are logically distinct, I suggest that distinguishing between these two levels is the best use of the term. Integrating across levels in research has potential risks, but many benefits. Consideration at one level can help generate novel hypotheses at the other, define categories of behaviour and set criteria that must be addressed. Taking an adaptationist stance thus strengthens research on proximate mechanisms. Similarly, it is critical for researchers studying adaptation and function to have detailed knowledge of proximate mechanisms that may constrain or modulate evolutionary processes. Despite the benefits of integrating across ultimate and proximate levels, failure to clearly identify levels of analysis, and whether or not hypotheses are exclusive alternatives, can create false debates. Such non-alternative hypotheses may occur between or within levels, and are not limited to integrative approaches. In this review, I survey different uses of the term levels of analysis and the benefits of integration, and highlight examples of false debate within and between levels. The best integrative biology reciprocally uses ultimate and proximate hypotheses to generate a more complete understanding of behaviour. PMID:21690126

Determining a Method of Enabling and Disabling the Integral Torque in the SDO Science and Inertial Mode Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vess, Melissa F.; Starin, Scott R.

2007-01-01

During design of the SDO Science and Inertial mode PID controllers, the decision was made to disable the integral torque whenever system stability was in question. Three different schemes were developed to determine when to disable or enable the integral torque, and a trade study was performed to determine which scheme to implement. The trade study compared complexity of the control logic, risk of not reenabling the integral gain in time to reject steady-state error, and the amount of integral torque space used. The first scheme calculated a simplified Routh criterion to determine when to disable the integral torque. The second scheme calculates the PD part of the torque and looked to see if that torque would cause actuator saturation. If so, only the PD torque is used. If not, the integral torque is added. Finally, the third scheme compares the attitude and rate errors to limits and disables the integral torque if either of the errors is greater than the limit. Based on the trade study results, the third scheme was selected. Once it was decided when to disable the integral torque, analysis was performed to determine how to disable the integral torque and whether or not to reset the integrator once the integral torque was reenabled. Three ways to disable the integral torque were investigated: zero the input into the integrator, which causes the integral part of the PID control torque to be held constant; zero the integral torque directly but allow the integrator to continue integrating; or zero the integral torque directly and reset the integrator on integral torque reactivation. The analysis looked at complexity of the control logic, slew time plus settling time between each calibration maneuver step, and ability to reject steady-state error. Based on the results of the analysis, the decision was made to zero the input into the integrator without resetting it. Throughout the analysis, a high fidelity simulation was used to test the various implementation methods.

Feasibility of integrating mental health and noncommunicable disease risk factor screening in periodical medical examination of employees in industries: An exploratory initiative

PubMed Central

Sukumar, Gautham Melur; Kupatira, Kowshik; Gururaj, G.

2015-01-01

Background: Noncommunicable disease (NCDs), psychological, substance use disorders, and stress-related issues have been less understood in Indian industrial settings. Systems for screening and early identification of the above have not been integrated in workplaces, nor there is a strong regulatory backing for the same. Aim: To explore the feasibility of integrating mental health and select NCD risk factor screening with the periodical medical examination of employees. To identify proportion of employees with select NCD risk factors and symptoms suggestive of mental health problems. Settings and Design: Around 10% of employees from a leading motor industry in Bangalore, (706) participated in this cross-sectional voluntary screening program. Materials and Methods: This screening was conducted as a part of their annual medical examination. A mixed method of self-report and interview administered technique was adopted for the same. Statistical Analysis: Descriptive statistical methods (proportions, median, mean, and standard deviation (SD)) and Chi-square test of significance. Results and Conclusions: Screening revealed the following; tobacco use (18%), alcohol use (57%), perceived work stress (10%), and obesity (3%). Nearly 23% screened positive for psychological distress. Time consumed for this assessment was 1–5 min. Initial attempts point out that it is feasible to integrate screening for mental health, substance use, and NCD risk factors in periodic medical examination using a combination of self-report and interview-administered method, though further detailed assessments for confirmation is necessary. PMID:26023267

Approaches to integrating germline and tumor genomic data in cancer research

PubMed Central

Feigelson, Heather Spencer; Goddard, Katrina A.B.; Hollombe, Celine; Tingle, Sharna R.; Gillanders, Elizabeth M.; Mechanic, Leah E.; Nelson, Stefanie A.

2014-01-01

Cancer is characterized by a diversity of genetic and epigenetic alterations occurring in both the germline and somatic (tumor) genomes. Hundreds of germline variants associated with cancer risk have been identified, and large amounts of data identifying mutations in the tumor genome that participate in tumorigenesis have been generated. Increasingly, these two genomes are being explored jointly to better understand how cancer risk alleles contribute to carcinogenesis and whether they influence development of specific tumor types or mutation profiles. To understand how data from germline risk studies and tumor genome profiling is being integrated, we reviewed 160 articles describing research that incorporated data from both genomes, published between January 2009 and December 2012, and summarized the current state of the field. We identified three principle types of research questions being addressed using these data: (i) use of tumor data to determine the putative function of germline risk variants; (ii) identification and analysis of relationships between host genetic background and particular tumor mutations or types; and (iii) use of tumor molecular profiling data to reduce genetic heterogeneity or refine phenotypes for germline association studies. We also found descriptive studies that compared germline and tumor genomic variation in a gene or gene family, and papers describing research methods, data sources, or analytical tools. We identified a large set of tools and data resources that can be used to analyze and integrate data from both genomes. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for cancer research that integrates germline and tumor genomics data. PMID:25115441

Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, P.

2003-04-01

The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this, GEMITIS is based on a systemic approach of the city and on value analysis of exposed elements. It facilitates a collective expertise for the definition of a preventive action plan based on the participation of the main urban actors (crisis preparedness, construction, land-use, etc.).

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling considering methylated trivalent arsenicals

EPA Science Inventory

PBPK modeling provides a quantitative biologically-based framework to integrate diverse types of information for application to risk analysis. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic metabolizing enzymes (AS3MT) can lead to differences in target tissue dosimetry for key tri...

A Scalable Data Integration and Analysis Architecture for Sensor Data of Pediatric Asthma.

PubMed

Stripelis, Dimitris; Ambite, José Luis; Chiang, Yao-Yi; Eckel, Sandrah P; Habre, Rima

2017-04-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control, in the United States there are 6.8 million children living with asthma. Despite the importance of the disease, the available prognostic tools are not sufficient for biomedical researchers to thoroughly investigate the potential risks of the disease at scale. To overcome these challenges we present a big data integration and analysis infrastructure developed by our Data and Software Coordination and Integration Center (DSCIC) of the NIBIB-funded Pediatric Research using Integrated Sensor Monitoring Systems (PRISMS) program. Our goal is to help biomedical researchers to efficiently predict and prevent asthma attacks. The PRISMS-DSCIC is responsible for collecting, integrating, storing, and analyzing real-time environmental, physiological and behavioral data obtained from heterogeneous sensor and traditional data sources. Our architecture is based on the Apache Kafka, Spark and Hadoop frameworks and PostgreSQL DBMS. A main contribution of this work is extending the Spark framework with a mediation layer, based on logical schema mappings and query rewriting, to facilitate data analysis over a consistent harmonized schema. The system provides both batch and stream analytic capabilities over the massive data generated by wearable and fixed sensors.

Quantitative Assessment the Relationship between p21 rs1059234 Polymorphism and Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Huang, Yong-Sheng; Fan, Qian-Qian; Li, Chuang; Nie, Meng; Quan, Hong-Yang; Wang, Lin

2015-01-01

p21 is a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor, which can arrest cell proliferation and serve as a tumor suppressor. Though many studies were published to assess the relationship between p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and various cancer risks, there was no definite conclusion on this association. To derive a more precise quantitative assessment of the relationship, a large scale meta-analysis of 5,963 cases and 8,405 controls from 16 eligible published case-control studies was performed. Our analysis suggested that rs1059234 was not associated with the integral cancer risk for both dominant model [(T/T+C/T) vs C/C, OR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.84-1.18] and recessive model [T/T vs (C/C+C/T), OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.93-1.15)]. However, further stratified analysis showed rs1059234 was greatly associated with the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck (SCCHN). Thus, larger scale primary studies are still required to further evaluate the interaction of p21 rs1059234 polymorphism and cancer risk in specific cancer subtypes.

Flood risk analysis and adaptive strategy in context of uncertainties: a case study of Nhieu Loc Thi Nghe Basin, Ho Chi Minh City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Long-Phi; Chau, Nguyen-Xuan-Quang; Nguyen, Hong-Quan

2013-04-01

The Nhieu Loc - Thi Nghe basin is the most important administrative and business area of Ho Chi Minh City. Due to system complexity of the basin such as the increasing trend of rainfall intensity, (tidal) water level and land subsidence, the simulation of hydrological, hydraulic variables for flooding prediction seems rather not adequate in practical projects. The basin is still highly vulnerable despite of multi-million USD investment for urban drainage improvement projects since the last decade. In this paper, an integrated system analysis in both spatial and temporal aspects based on statistical, GIS and modelling approaches has been conducted in order to: (1) Analyse risks before and after projects, (2) Foresee water-related risk under uncertainties of unfavourable driving factors and (3) Develop a sustainable flood risk management strategy for the basin. The results show that given the framework of risk analysis and adaptive strategy, certain urban developing plans in the basin must be carefully revised and/or checked in order to reduce the highly unexpected loss in the future

HPVdb: a data mining system for knowledge discovery in human papillomavirus with applications in T cell immunology and vaccinology

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guang Lan; Riemer, Angelika B.; Keskin, Derin B.; Chitkushev, Lou; Reinherz, Ellis L.; Brusic, Vladimir

2014-01-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causes of many cancers, including cervical, anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile and oropharyngeal. To facilitate diagnosis, prognosis and characterization of these cancers, it is necessary to make full use of the immunological data on HPV available through publications, technical reports and databases. These data vary in granularity, quality and complexity. The extraction of knowledge from the vast amount of immunological data using data mining techniques remains a challenging task. To support integration of data and knowledge in virology and vaccinology, we developed a framework called KB-builder to streamline the development and deployment of web-accessible immunological knowledge systems. The framework consists of seven major functional modules, each facilitating a specific aspect of the knowledgebase construction process. Using KB-builder, we constructed the Human Papillomavirus T cell Antigen Database (HPVdb). It contains 2781 curated antigen entries of antigenic proteins derived from 18 genotypes of high-risk HPV and 18 genotypes of low-risk HPV. The HPVdb also catalogs 191 verified T cell epitopes and 45 verified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands. Primary amino acid sequences of HPV antigens were collected and annotated from the UniProtKB. T cell epitopes and HLA ligands were collected from data mining of scientific literature and databases. The data were subject to extensive quality control (redundancy elimination, error detection and vocabulary consolidation). A set of computational tools for an in-depth analysis, such as sequence comparison using BLAST search, multiple alignments of antigens, classification of HPV types based on cancer risk, T cell epitope/HLA ligand visualization, T cell epitope/HLA ligand conservation analysis and sequence variability analysis, has been integrated within the HPVdb. Predicted Class I and Class II HLA binding peptides for 15 common HLA alleles are included in this database as putative targets. HPVdb is a knowledge-based system that integrates curated data and information with tailored analysis tools to facilitate data mining for HPV vaccinology and immunology. To our best knowledge, HPVdb is a unique data source providing a comprehensive list of HPV antigens and peptides. Database URL: http://cvc.dfci.harvard.edu/hpv/ PMID:24705205

HPVdb: a data mining system for knowledge discovery in human papillomavirus with applications in T cell immunology and vaccinology.

PubMed

Zhang, Guang Lan; Riemer, Angelika B; Keskin, Derin B; Chitkushev, Lou; Reinherz, Ellis L; Brusic, Vladimir

2014-01-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causes of many cancers, including cervical, anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile and oropharyngeal. To facilitate diagnosis, prognosis and characterization of these cancers, it is necessary to make full use of the immunological data on HPV available through publications, technical reports and databases. These data vary in granularity, quality and complexity. The extraction of knowledge from the vast amount of immunological data using data mining techniques remains a challenging task. To support integration of data and knowledge in virology and vaccinology, we developed a framework called KB-builder to streamline the development and deployment of web-accessible immunological knowledge systems. The framework consists of seven major functional modules, each facilitating a specific aspect of the knowledgebase construction process. Using KB-builder, we constructed the Human Papillomavirus T cell Antigen Database (HPVdb). It contains 2781 curated antigen entries of antigenic proteins derived from 18 genotypes of high-risk HPV and 18 genotypes of low-risk HPV. The HPVdb also catalogs 191 verified T cell epitopes and 45 verified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands. Primary amino acid sequences of HPV antigens were collected and annotated from the UniProtKB. T cell epitopes and HLA ligands were collected from data mining of scientific literature and databases. The data were subject to extensive quality control (redundancy elimination, error detection and vocabulary consolidation). A set of computational tools for an in-depth analysis, such as sequence comparison using BLAST search, multiple alignments of antigens, classification of HPV types based on cancer risk, T cell epitope/HLA ligand visualization, T cell epitope/HLA ligand conservation analysis and sequence variability analysis, has been integrated within the HPVdb. Predicted Class I and Class II HLA binding peptides for 15 common HLA alleles are included in this database as putative targets. HPVdb is a knowledge-based system that integrates curated data and information with tailored analysis tools to facilitate data mining for HPV vaccinology and immunology. To our best knowledge, HPVdb is a unique data source providing a comprehensive list of HPV antigens and peptides. Database URL: http://cvc.dfci.harvard.edu/hpv/.

Pathway enrichment analysis approach based on topological structure and updated annotation of pathway.

PubMed

Yang, Qian; Wang, Shuyuan; Dai, Enyu; Zhou, Shunheng; Liu, Dianming; Liu, Haizhou; Meng, Qianqian; Jiang, Bin; Jiang, Wei

2017-08-16

Pathway enrichment analysis has been widely used to identify cancer risk pathways, and contributes to elucidating the mechanism of tumorigenesis. However, most of the existing approaches use the outdated pathway information and neglect the complex gene interactions in pathway. Here, we first reviewed the existing widely used pathway enrichment analysis approaches briefly, and then, we proposed a novel topology-based pathway enrichment analysis (TPEA) method, which integrated topological properties and global upstream/downstream positions of genes in pathways. We compared TPEA with four widely used pathway enrichment analysis tools, including database for annotation, visualization and integrated discovery (DAVID), gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), centrality-based pathway enrichment (CePa) and signaling pathway impact analysis (SPIA), through analyzing six gene expression profiles of three tumor types (colorectal cancer, thyroid cancer and endometrial cancer). As a result, we identified several well-known cancer risk pathways that could not be obtained by the existing tools, and the results of TPEA were more stable than that of the other tools in analyzing different data sets of the same cancer. Ultimately, we developed an R package to implement TPEA, which could online update KEGG pathway information and is available at the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN): https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TPEA/. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

PubMed

Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

2016-10-01

Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zitney, S.E.; McCorkle, D.; Yang, C.

Process modeling and simulation tools are widely used for the design and operation of advanced power generation systems. These tools enable engineers to solve the critical process systems engineering problems that arise throughout the lifecycle of a power plant, such as designing a new process, troubleshooting a process unit or optimizing operations of the full process. To analyze the impact of complex thermal and fluid flow phenomena on overall power plant performance, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed the Advanced Process Engineering Co-Simulator (APECS). The APECS system is an integrated software suite that combinesmore » process simulation (e.g., Aspen Plus) and high-fidelity equipment simulations such as those based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD), together with advanced analysis capabilities including case studies, sensitivity analysis, stochastic simulation for risk/uncertainty analysis, and multi-objective optimization. In this paper we discuss the initial phases of the integration of the APECS system with the immersive and interactive virtual engineering software, VE-Suite, developed at Iowa State University and Ames Laboratory. VE-Suite uses the ActiveX (OLE Automation) controls in the Aspen Plus process simulator wrapped by the CASI library developed by Reaction Engineering International to run process/CFD co-simulations and query for results. This integration represents a necessary step in the development of virtual power plant co-simulations that will ultimately reduce the time, cost, and technical risk of developing advanced power generation systems.« less

Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol

PubMed Central

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-01-01

Background In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. Study design and data collection methods A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. Methods of analysis The quantitative analysis adopts a ‘difference in differences’ approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a ‘theory of change’ approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. Conclusion This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare. PMID:20922068

The feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management interventions in primary care: An integrative review.

PubMed

Stephen, Catherine; McInnes, Susan; Halcomb, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

To explore the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led chronic disease management and lifestyle risk factor reduction interventions in primary care (general practice/family practice). Growing international evidence suggests that interventions delivered by primary care nurses can assist in modifying lifestyle risk factors and managing chronic disease. To date, there has been limited exploration of the feasibility and acceptability of such interventions. Integrative review guided by the work of Whittemore and Knafl (). Database search of CINAHL, Medline and Web of Science was conducted to identify relevant literature published between 2000-2015. Papers were assessed for methodological quality and data abstracted before thematic analysis was undertaken. Eleven papers met the inclusion criteria. Analysis uncovered four themes: (1) facilitators of interventions; (2) barriers to interventions; (3) consumer satisfaction; and (4) primary care nurse role. Literature supports the feasibility and acceptability of nurse-led interventions in primary care for lifestyle risk factor modification. The ongoing sustainability of these interventions rests largely on organizational factors such as funding, educational pathways and professional support of the primary care nursing role. Further robust research around primary care nurse interventions is required to strengthen the evidence base. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Trade-offs of Solar Geoengineering and Mitigation under Climate Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Stankoweit, M.; Roshan, E.; Schmidt, H.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Scientific analyses have hitherto focused on the pros and cons of solar-radiation management (SRM) as a climate-policy option mainly in mere isolation. Here we put SRM into the context of mitigation by a strictly temperature-target-based approach. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time, we introduce a concept for a regional integrated analysis of SRM and mitigation in-line with the `2°C target'. We explicitly account for a risk-risk comparison of SRM and global warming, extending the applicability regime of temperature targets from mitigation-only to joint-SRM-mitigation analysis while minimizing economic costs required for complying with the 2°C target. Upgrading it to include SRM, we employ the integrated energy-economy-climate model MIND. We utilize the two-box climate model of DICE and calibrate the short and long time scales respectively into GeoMIP G3 experiment and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiment from CEMIP5 suite. Our results show that without risk-risk accounting SRM will displace mitigation. However, our analysis highlights that the value system enshrined in the 2°C target can almost preclude SRM; this is exemplified by one single regional climate variable, here precipitation, which is confined to regional bounds compatible with 2°C of global warming. Although about a half of policy costs can be saved, the results indicate that the additional amount of CO2 that could be released to the atmosphere corresponds to only 0.2°C of further global warming. Hence, the society might debate whether the risks of SRM should be taken for that rather small amount of additional carbon emissions. Nonetheless, our results point out a significantly larger role for SRM implementation if the guardrails of some regions are relaxed.

Metabolite changes in risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in cohort studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-Eun; Lim, Hye Rin; Kim, Jun Woo; Shin, Kwang-Hee

2018-06-01

Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test, and glycated hemoglobin are diagnostic markers for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is necessary to detect physiological changes in T2DM rapidly and stratify diabetic stage using other biomarkers. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to contribute to the development of objective and sensitive diagnostic indicators by integrating metabolite biomarkers derived from large-scale cohort studies. We searched for metabolomics studies of T2DM cohort in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies published within the last 10 years from January 2008 to February 2017. The concentrations of metabolites and odds ratios (ORs) were integrated and risk ratio (RR) values were estimated to distinguish subjects with T2DM and normal participants. Fourteen cohort studies were investigated in this meta-analysis. There were 4592 patients in the case group and 11,492 participants in the control group. We noted a 1.89-, 1.63-, and 1.87-fold higher risk of T2DM associated with leucine (RR 1.89 [95% CI 1.57-2.29]), alanine (RR 1.63 [95% CI 1.48-1.79]), and oleic acid (RR 1.87 [95% CI 1.62-2.17]), respectively. Lysophosphatidylcholine C18:0 (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.72-0.90]) and creatinine (RR 0.63 [95% CI 0.53-0.74]) were associated with 20% and 37% decreased T2DM risks, respectively. Most amino acids in patients were positively related to diabetes, while creatinine and some lysophosphatidylcholines showed a negative relationship. This suggests that diabetic risk prediction using metabolites that sensitively reflect changes in the body will improve individual diagnosis and personalize medicine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards an integrated approach of pedestrian behaviour and exposure.

PubMed

Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2016-07-01

In this paper, an integrated methodology for the analysis of pedestrian behaviour and exposure is proposed, allowing to identify and quantify the effect of pedestrian behaviour, road and traffic characteristics on pedestrian risk exposure, for each pedestrian and for populations of pedestrians. The paper builds on existing research on pedestrian exposure, namely the Routledge microscopic indicator, proposes adjustments to take into account road, traffic and human factors and extends the use of this indicator on area-wide level. Moreover, this paper uses integrated choice and latent variables (ICLV) models of pedestrian behaviour, taking into account road, traffic and human factors. Finally, a methodology is proposed for the integrated estimation of pedestrian behaviour and exposure on the basis of road, traffic and human factors. The method is tested with data from a field survey in Athens, Greece, which used pedestrian behaviour observations as well as a questionnaire on human factors of pedestrian behaviour. The data were used (i) to develop ICLV models of pedestrian behaviour and (ii) to estimate the behaviour and exposure of pedestrians for different road, traffic and behavioural scenarios. The results suggest that both pedestrian behaviour and exposure are largely defined by a small number of factors: road type, traffic volume and pedestrian risk-taking. The probability for risk-taking behaviour and the related exposure decrease in less demanding road and traffic environments. A synthesis of the results allows to enhance the understanding of the interactions between behaviour and exposure of pedestrians and to identify conditions of increased risk exposure. These conditions include principal urban arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is low but the related exposure is very high) and minor arterials (where risk-taking behaviour is more frequent, and the related exposure is still high). A "paradox" of increased risk-taking behaviour of pedestrians with low exposure is found, suggesting that these pedestrians may partly compensate in moderate traffic conditions due to their increased walking speed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the recovering capacity (the time needed to reestablish functions after a disastrous event) were also taken into account. The selected indicators were mathematically processed (standardized and normalized) in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Then a grid with a cell size of 100 x 100 m was created in order to spatialize vulnerability indicators, that were calculated as the average vulnerability of the exposed elements in each cell. All identified indicators have been processed within a cluster analysis that permitted the identification of similar areas in terms of vulnerabilities. Finally, a general index was obtained by the integration of all vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. The results of the study could provide a reference basis to substantiate local correctly prioritized decisions for reducing vulnerability by mitigation and adaptation measures in order to avoid significant damages when risks materialise.

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Efficacy of an integrated hospital-primary care program for heart failure: a population-based analysis of 56,742 patients.

PubMed

Comín-Colet, Josep; Verdú-Rotellar, José María; Vela, Emili; Clèries, Montse; Bustins, Montserrat; Mendoza, Lola; Badosa, Neus; Cladellas, Mercè; Ferré, Sofía; Bruguera, Jordi

2014-04-01

The efficacy of heart failure programs has been demonstrated in clinical trials but their applicability in the real world practice setting is more controversial. This study evaluates the feasibility and efficacy of an integrated hospital-primary care program for the management of patients with heart failure in an integrated health area covering a population of 309,345. For the analysis, we included all patients consecutively admitted with heart failure as the principal diagnosis who had been discharged alive from all of the hospitals in Catalonia, Spain, from 2005 to 2011, the period when the program was implemented, and compared mortality and readmissions among patients exposed to the program with the rates in the patients of all the remaining integrated health areas of the Servei Català de la Salut (Catalan Health Service). We included 56,742 patients in the study. There were 181,204 hospital admissions and 30,712 deaths during the study period. In the adjusted analyses, when compared to the 54,659 patients from the other health areas, the 2083 patients exposed to the program had a lower risk of death (hazard ratio=0.92 [95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.97]; P=.005), a lower risk of clinically-related readmission (hazard ratio=0.71 [95% confidence interval, 0.66-0.76]; P<.001), and a lower risk of readmission for heart failure (hazard ratio=0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.94]; P<.001). The positive impact on the morbidity and mortality rates was more marked once the program had become well established. The implementation of multidisciplinary heart failure management programs that integrate the hospital and the community is feasible and is associated with a significant reduction in patient morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

The impact of an electronic health record on nurse sensitive patient outcomes: an interrupted time series analysis.

PubMed

Dowding, Dawn W; Turley, Marianne; Garrido, Terhilda

2012-01-01

To evaluate the impact of electronic health record (EHR) implementation on nursing care processes and outcomes. Interrupted time series analysis, 2003-2009. A large US not-for-profit integrated health care organization. 29 hospitals in Northern and Southern California. An integrated EHR including computerized physician order entry, nursing documentation, risk assessment tools, and documentation tools. Percentage of patients with completed risk assessments for hospital acquired pressure ulcers (HAPUs) and falls (process measures) and rates of HAPU and falls (outcome measures). EHR implementation was significantly associated with an increase in documentation rates for HAPU risk (coefficient 2.21, 95% CI 0.67 to 3.75); the increase for fall risk was not statistically significant (0.36; -3.58 to 4.30). EHR implementation was associated with a 13% decrease in HAPU rates (coefficient -0.76, 95% CI -1.37 to -0.16) but no decrease in fall rates (-0.091; -0.29 to 0.11). Irrespective of EHR implementation, HAPU rates decreased significantly over time (-0.16; -0.20 to -0.13), while fall rates did not (0.0052; -0.01 to 0.02). Hospital region was a significant predictor of variation for both HAPU (0.72; 0.30 to 1.14) and fall rates (0.57; 0.41 to 0.72). The introduction of an integrated EHR was associated with a reduction in the number of HAPUs but not in patient fall rates. Other factors, such as changes over time and hospital region, were also associated with variation in outcomes. The findings suggest that EHR impact on nursing care processes and outcomes is dependent on a number of factors that should be further explored.

A Framework for Analysis of Research Risks and Benefits to Participants in Standard of Care Pragmatic Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Chen, Stephanie C; Kim, Scott Y H

2016-01-01

Background/Aims Standard of care pragmatic clinical trials (SCPCTs) that compare treatments already in use could improve care and reduce cost but there is considerable debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and how to apply informed consent regulations to such trials. We sought to develop a framework integrating the insights from opposing sides of the debate. Methods We developed a formal risk-benefit analysis framework for SCPCTs and then applied it to key provisions of the U.S. federal regulations. Results Our formal framework for SCPCT risk-benefit analysis takes into account three key considerations: the ex ante estimates of risks and benefits of the treatments to be compared in a SCPCT, the allocation ratios of treatments inside and outside a SCPCT, and the significance of some participants receiving a different treatment inside a SCPCT than outside the trial. The framework provides practical guidance on how the research ethics regulations on informed consent should be applied to SCPCTs. Conclusions Our proposed formal model makes explicit the relationship between the concepts used by opposing sides of the debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and can be used to clarify the implications for informed consent. PMID:27365010

Decision Making for Animal Health and Welfare: Integrating Risk-Benefit Analysis with Prospect Theory

PubMed Central

Hansson, Helena; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan

2013-01-01

This study integrated risk-benefit analysis with prospect theory with the overall objective of identifying the type of management behavior represented by farmers’ choices of mastitis control options (MCOs). Two exploratory factor analyses, based on 163 and 175 Swedish farmers, respectively, highlighted attitudes to MCOs related to: (1) grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent spread of existing infection and (2) working in a precautionary way to prevent mastitis occurring. This was interpreted as being based on (1) reactive management behavior on detection of udder-health problems in individual cows and (2) proactive management behavior to prevent mastitis developing. Farmers’ assessments of these MCOs were found to be based on asymmetrical evaluations of risks and benefits, suggesting that farmers’ management behavior depends on their individual reference point. In particular, attitudes to MCOs related to grouping cows and applying milking order to prevent the spread of mastitis once infected cows were detected were stronger in the risk domain than in the benefit domain, in accordance with loss aversion. In contrast, attitudes to MCOs related to working in a precautionary way to prevent cows from becoming infected in the first place were stronger in the benefit domain than in the risk domain, in accordance with reverse loss aversion. These findings are of practical importance for farmers and agribusiness and in public health protection work to reduce the current extensive use of antibiotics in dairy herds. PMID:24372180

HACCP: Integrating Science and Management through ASTM Standards

EPA Science Inventory

From a technical perspective, hazard analysis-critical control point (HACCP) evaluation may be considered a risk management tool suited to a wide range of applications. As one outcome of a symposium convened by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) in August, 2005, th...

Calculation of the Actual Cost of Engine Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

Cost Estimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) helps analysts store, retrieve, and analyze data; build cost models; analyze risk; time phase budgets; and...Tools ( ACEIT ).” n. pag. http://www.aceit.com/ 21 February 2003. • USAMC Logistics Support Activity (LOGSA). “Cost Analysis Strategy Assessment

Why the Eurocontrol Safety Regulation Commission Policy on Safety Nets and Risk Assessment is Wrong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooker, Peter

2004-05-01

Current Eurocontrol Safety Regulation Commission (SRC) policy says that the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system (including safety minima) must be demonstrated through risk assessments to meet the Target Level of Safety (TLS) without needing to take safety nets (such as Short Term Conflict Alert) into account. This policy is wrong. The policy is invalid because it does not build rationally and consistently from ATM's firm foundations of TLS and hazard analysis. The policy is bad because it would tend to retard safety improvements. Safety net policy must rest on a clear and rational treatment of integrated ATM system safety defences. A new safety net policy, appropriate to safe ATM system improvements, is needed, which recognizes that safety nets are an integrated part of ATM system defences. The effects of safety nets in reducing deaths from mid-air collisions should be fully included in hazard analysis and safety audits in the context of the TLS for total system design.

Sampling design for an integrated socioeconomic and ecological survey by using satellite remote sensing and ordination

PubMed Central

Binford, Michael W.; Lee, Tae Jeong; Townsend, Robert M.

2004-01-01

Environmental variability is an important risk factor in rural agricultural communities. Testing models requires empirical sampling that generates data that are representative in both economic and ecological domains. Detrended correspondence analysis of satellite remote sensing data were used to design an effective low-cost sampling protocol for a field study to create an integrated socioeconomic and ecological database when no prior information on ecology of the survey area existed. We stratified the sample for the selection of tambons from various preselected provinces in Thailand based on factor analysis of spectral land-cover classes derived from satellite data. We conducted the survey for the sampled villages in the chosen tambons. The resulting data capture interesting variations in soil productivity and in the timing of good and bad years, which a purely random sample would likely have missed. Thus, this database will allow tests of hypotheses concerning the effect of credit on productivity, the sharing of idiosyncratic risks, and the economic influence of environmental variability. PMID:15254298

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Führ, Martin; Feindt, Peter H; Bouwmeester, Hans; Linkov, Igor; Sabella, Stefania; Murphy, Finbarr; Bizer, Kilian; Tran, Lang; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Fito, Carlos; Andersen, Torben; Anderson, Diana; Bergamaschi, Enrico; Cherrie, John W; Cowan, Sue; Dalemcourt, Jean-Francois; Faure, Michael; Gabbert, Silke; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Johnston, Helinor J; Lansdown, Terry C; Linder, Stefan; Marvin, Hans J P; Mullins, Martin; Purnhagen, Kai; Puzyn, Tomasz; Sanchez Jimenez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Streftaris, George; van Tongeren, Martie; Voelcker, Nicolas H; Voyiatzis, George; Yannopoulos, Spyros N; Poortvliet, P Marijn

2017-12-14

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

Prevalence of anal infection due to high-risk human papillomavirus and analysis of E2 gene integrity among women with cervical abnormalities.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Losa, María Del Refugio; Puerto-Solís, Marylin; Ayora-Talavera, Guadalupe; Gómez-Carvallo, Jesús; Euán-López, Alejandra; Cisneros-Cutz, José I; Rosado-López, Ariel; Echeverría Salazar, Jesúa; Conde-Ferráez, Laura

2018-04-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPV) infection has been associated with 90% of anal cancer cases. Women with abnormal cytology are a high-risk group to develop anal neoplasia. The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence and epidemiology of HR-HPV 16, 18, 45, and 58 anal infections in women with cervical abnormalities, as well as to assess E2 gene integrity. A cross-sectional study was performed on 311 cervical and 311 anal samples from patients with abnormal cytology in two colposcopy clinics in Yucatan, Mexico. A specific PCR for oncogenes was performed in order to identify HVP 16, 18, 45 and 58. Real time PCR was used to amplify the whole HPV 16, 18, and 58 E2 gene to verify its integrity in anal samples. High risk HPV 16, 18, 58, and/or 45 were found in 41.47% (129/311) of cervical samples, and in 30.8% (96/331) of anal samples, with 18% (57/311) of the patients being positive in both samples. The same genotypes in both anatomical sites were observed in 11.25% (35/311). The E2 gene was disrupted in 82% of all tested samples. The frequency of genome disruption viral integration in anal samples by genotype was: HPV 58 (97.2%); HPV 16 (72.4%), and HPV 18 (0%). Women with cervical disease have HR-HPV anal infections, and most of them have the E2 gene disrupted, which represents a risk to develop anal cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Australia’s Submarine Design Capabilities and Capacities: Challenges and Options for the Future Submarine

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

stealth features requiring specialised noise and vibra- tion skills and propulsion plants requiring other unique skill sets. Personnel with these...analysis Acoustic, wake , thermal, electromagnetic, and other signature analysis Combat systems and ship control Combat system integration, combat system...to-diagnose flow-induced radiated noise Own-sensor performance degradation Note: Risks can be reduced for given designs using scale models

The Work of Mourning in the Bilingual Schools of Israel: Ambivalent Emotions and the Risks of Seeking Mutual Respect and Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zembylas, Michalinos; Bekerman, Zvi

2011-01-01

This article presents an in-depth analysis of two commemoration events in a first-grade classroom of a bilingual school in Israel. The two events presented--the commemorations of the Holocaust Day and the Memorial Day--derive from a longitudinal ethnographic study of integrated bilingual schools in Israel. The analysis of these events shows…

Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

2018-04-01

Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mirko

2010-05-01

Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a system which integrates the procedures for a complete risk analysis in a Geographic Information System (GIS) toolbox, in order to be applied to our testbed, the Alps-crossing corridor of St. Gotthard. The simulation environment is developed within ArcObjects, the development platform for ArcGIS. The topic of ArcObjects usually emerges when users realize that programming ArcObjects can actually reduce the amount of repetitive work, streamline the workflow, and even produce functionalities that are not easily available in ArcGIS. We have adopted Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) for programming ArcObjects. Because VBA is already embedded within ArcMap and ArcCatalog, it is convenient for ArcGIS users to program ArcObjects in VBA. Our tool visualises the obtained data by an analysis of historical data (aerial photo imagery, field surveys, documentation of past events) or an environmental modeling (estimations of the area affected by a given event), and event such as route number and route position and thematic maps. As a result of this step the record appears in WebGIS. The user can select a specific area to overview previous hazards in the region. After performing the analysis, a double click on the visualised infrastructures opens the corresponding results. The constantly updated risk maps show all sites that require more protection against natural hazards. The final goal of our work is to offer a versatile tool for risk analysis which can be applied to different situations. Today our GIS application mainly centralises the documentation of natural hazards. Additionally the system offers information about natural hazard at the Gotthard line. It is very flexible and can be used as a simple program to model the expansion of natural hazards, as a program of quantitatively estimate risks or as a detailed analysis at a municipality level. The tool is extensible and can be expanded with additional modules. The initial results of the experimental case study show how useful a GIS-based system can be for effective and efficient disaster response management. In the coming years our GIS application will be a data base containing all information needed for the evaluation of risk sites along the Gotthard line. Our GIS application can help the technical management to decide about protection measures because of, in addition to the visualisation, tools for spatial data analysis will be available. REFERENCES Bründl M. (Ed.) 2009 : Risikokonzept für Naturgefahren - Leitfaden. Nationale Plattform für Naturgefahren PLANAT, Bern. 416 S. BUWAL 1999: Risikoanalyse bei gravitativen Naturgefahren - Methode, Fallbeispiele und Daten (Risk analyses for gravitational natural hazards). Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL). Umwelt-Materialen Nr. 107, 1-244. Loat, R. & Zimmermann, M. 2004: La gestion des risques en Suisse (Risk Management in Switzerland). In: Veyret, Y., Garry, G., Meschinet de Richemont, N. & Armand Colin (eds) 2002: Colloque Arche de la Défense 22-24 octobre 2002, dans Risques naturels et aménagement en Europe, 108-120. Maggi R. et al, 2009: Evaluation of the optimal resilience for vulnerable infrastructure networks. An interdisciplinary pilot study on the transalpine transportation corridors, NRP 54 "Sustainable Development of the Built Environment", Projekt Nr. 405 440, Final Scientific Report, Lugano

Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

PubMed

Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

2015-05-01

This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

Integrative marker analysis allows risk assessment for metastasis in stage II colon cancer.

PubMed

Nitsche, Ulrich; Rosenberg, Robert; Balmert, Alexander; Schuster, Tibor; Slotta-Huspenina, Julia; Herrmann, Pia; Bader, Franz G; Friess, Helmut; Schlag, Peter M; Stein, Ulrike; Janssen, Klaus-Peter

2012-11-01

Individualized risk assessment in patients with UICC stage II colon cancer based on a panel of molecular genetic alterations. Risk assessment in patients with colon cancer and localized disease (UICC stage II) is not sufficiently reliable. Development of metachronous metastasis is assumed to be governed largely by individual tumor genetics. Fresh frozen tissue from 232 patients (T3-4, N0, M0) with complete tumor resection and a median follow-up of 97 months was analyzed for microsatellite stability, KRAS exon 2, and BRAF exon 15 mutations. Gene expression of the WNT-pathway surrogate marker osteopontin and the metastasis-associated genes SASH1 and MACC1 was determined for 179 patients. The results were correlated with metachronous distant metastasis risk (n = 22 patients). Mutations of KRAS were detected in 30% patients, mutations of BRAF in 15% patients, and microsatellite instability in 26% patients. Risk of recurrence was associated with KRAS mutation (P = 0.033), microsatellite stable tumors (P = 0.015), decreased expression of SASH1 (P = 0.049), and increased expression of MACC1 (P < 0.001). MACC1 was the only independent parameter for recurrence prediction (hazard ratio: 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 2.4-16; P < 0.001). Integrative 2-step cluster analysis allocated patients into 4 groups, according to their tumor genetics. KRAS mutation, BRAF wild type, microsatellite stability, and high MACC1 expression defined the group with the highest risk of recurrence (16%, 7 of 43), whereas BRAF wild type, microsatellite instability, and low MACC1 expression defined the group with the lowest risk (4%, 1 of 26). MACC1 expression predicts development of metastases, outperforming microsatellite stability status, as well as KRAS/BRAF mutation status.

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank; Stamatelatos, Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare

2010-01-01

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Friendship Group Composition and Juvenile Institutional Misconduct.

PubMed

Reid, Shannon E

2017-02-01

The present study examines both the patterns of friendship networks and how these network characteristics relate to the risk factors of institutional misconduct for incarcerated youth. Using friendship networks collected from males incarcerated with California's Division of Juvenile Justice (DJJ), latent profile analysis was utilized to create homogeneous groups of friendship patterns based on alter attributes and network structure. The incarcerated youth provided 144 egocentric networks reporting 558 social network relationships. Latent profile analysis identified three network profiles: expected group (67%), new breed group (20%), and model citizen group (13%). The three network profiles were integrated into a multiple group analysis framework to examine the relative influence of individual-level risk factors on their rate of institutional misconduct. The analysis finds variation in predictors of institutional misconduct across profile types. These findings suggest that the close friendships of incarcerated youth are patterned across the individual characteristics of the youth's friends and that the friendship network can act as a moderator for individual risk factors for institutional misconduct.

A GIS-based approach for comparative analysis of potential fire risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ying; Hu, Lieqiu; Liu, Huiping

2007-06-01

Urban fires are one of the most important sources of property loss and human casualty and therefore it is necessary to assess the potential fire risk with consideration of urban community safety. Two evaluation models are proposed, both of which are integrated with GIS. One is the single factor model concerning the accessibility of fire passage and the other is grey clustering approach based on the multifactor system. In the latter model, fourteen factors are introduced and divided into four categories involving security management, evacuation facility, construction resistance and fire fighting capability. A case study on campus of Beijing Normal University is presented to express the potential risk assessment models in details. A comparative analysis of the two models is carried out to validate the accuracy. The results are approximately consistent with each other. Moreover, modeling with GIS promotes the efficiency the potential risk assessment.

75 FR 1617 - Draft Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-12

... on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-09/013). The draft document was... ``Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Toxicological Review of Methanol: In Support of the Summary Information in the Integrated Risk Information...

76 FR 54228 - Draft Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-31

... Toxicological Review of Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R... Acrylonitrile: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available...

A multi-disciplinary approach to evaluate pluvial floods risk under changing climate: The case study of the municipality of Venice (Italy).

PubMed

Sperotto, A; Torresan, S; Gallina, V; Coppola, E; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2016-08-15

Global climate change is likely to pose increasing threats in nearly all sectors and across all sub-regions worldwide (IPCC, 2014). Particularly, extreme weather events (e.g. heavy precipitations), together with changing exposure and vulnerability patterns, are expected to increase the damaging effect of storms, pluvial floods and coastal flooding. Developing climate and adaptation services for local planners and decision makers is becoming essential to transfer and communicate sound scientific knowledge about climate related risks and foster the development of national, regional and local adaptation strategies. In order to analyze the effect of climate change on pluvial flood risk and advice adaptation planning, a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed and applied to the urban territory of the municipality of Venice. Based on the integrated analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk, RRA allows identifying and prioritizing targets and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood risk due to heavy precipitation events in the future scenario 2041-2050. From the early stages of its development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the requests, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders of the North Adriatic region by means of interactive workshops, surveys and discussions. Results of the analysis showed that all targets (i.e. residential, commercial-industrial areas and infrastructures) are vulnerable to pluvial floods due to the high impermeability and low slope of the topography. The spatial pattern of risk mostly reflects the distribution of the hazard and the districts with the higher percentage of receptors' surface in the higher risk classes (i.e. very high, high and medium) are Lido-Pellestrina and Marghera. The paper discusses how risk-based maps and statistics integrate scientific and local knowledge with the final aim to mainstream climate adaptation in the development of risk mitigation and urban plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NATO Independent Cost Estimating and the Role of Life Cycle Cost Analysis in Managing the Defence Enterprise (Estimation independante des couts de l’OTAN et role de l’analyse des couts globaux de possesssion au sen de l’OTAN)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

Command NBCD Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Defence NCCA U.S. Naval Center for Cost Analysis NGISSI Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems...analysis (CPA) in the United States which investigated how costs, capabilities, and risks could be examined together in an attempt to engen - der more

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

Benefits and risks of emerging technologies: integrating life cycle assessment and decision analysis to assess lumber treatment alternatives.

PubMed

Tsang, Michael P; Bates, Matthew E; Madison, Marcus; Linkov, Igor

2014-10-07

Assessing the best options among emerging technologies (e.g., new chemicals, nanotechnologies) is complicated because of trade-offs across benefits and risks that are difficult to quantify given limited and fragmented availability of information. This study demonstrates the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to address technology alternative selection decisions. As a case study, prioritization of six lumber treatment alternatives [micronized copper quaternary (MCQ); alkaline copper quaternary (ACQ); water-borne copper naphthenate (CN); oil-borne copper naphthenate (CNo); water-borne copper quinolate (CQ); and water-borne zinc naphthenate (ZN)] for military use are considered. Multiattribute value theory (MAVT) is used to derive risk and benefit scores. Risk scores are calculated using a cradle-to-gate LCA. Benefit scores are calculated by scoring of cost, durability, and corrosiveness criteria. Three weighting schemes are used, representing Environmental, Military and Balanced stakeholder perspectives. Aggregated scores from all three perspectives show CQ to be the least favorable alterative. MCQ is identified as the most favorable alternative from the Environmental stakeholder perspective. From the Military stakeholder perspective, ZN is determined to be the most favorable alternative, followed closely by MCQ. This type of scoring and ranking of multiple heterogeneous criteria in a systematic and transparent way facilitates better justification of technology selection and regulation.

Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

PubMed

Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2012-11-01

Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Space Shuttle critical function audit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sacks, Ivan J.; Dipol, John; Su, Paul

1990-01-01

A large fault-tolerance model of the main propulsion system of the US space shuttle has been developed. This model is being used to identify single components and pairs of components that will cause loss of shuttle critical functions. In addition, this model is the basis for risk quantification of the shuttle. The process used to develop and analyze the model is digraph matrix analysis (DMA). The DMA modeling and analysis process is accessed via a graphics-based computer user interface. This interface provides coupled display of the integrated system schematics, the digraph models, the component database, and the results of the fault tolerance and risk analyses.

Integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment through the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from relevant stressors across different species. Integration is important to provide a more complete assessment of risk, but evaluating endpoints a...

Dietary Cholesterol Intake and Risk of Lung Cancer: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Lin, Xiaojing; Liu, Lingli; Fu, Youyun; Gao, Jing; He, Yunyun; Wu, Yang; Lian, Xuemei

2018-02-08

Multiple epidemiologic studies have evaluated the relationship between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk, but the association is controversial and inconclusive. A meta-analysis of case-control studies and cohort studies was conducted to evaluate the relationship between dietary cholesterol intake and lung cancer risk in this study. A relevant literature search up to October 2017 was performed in Web of Science, PubMed, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Sinomed, and VIP Journal Integration Platform. Ten case-control studies and six cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis, and the risk estimates were pooled using either fixed or random effects models. The case-control studies with a total of 6894 lung cancer cases and 29,736 controls showed that dietary cholesterol intake was positively associated with lung cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.70, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.43-2.03). However, there was no evidence of an association between dietary cholesterol intake and risk of lung cancer among the 241,920 participants and 1769 lung cancer cases in the cohort studies (Relative Risk = 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval: 0.94-1.25). Due to inconsistent results from case-control and cohort studies, it is difficult to draw any conclusion regarding the effects of dietary cholesterol intake on lung cancer risk. Carefully designed and well-conducted cohort studies are needed to identify the association between dietary cholesterol and lung cancer risk.

[Integral quantitative evaluation of working conditions in the construction industry].

PubMed

Guseĭnov, A A

1993-01-01

Present method evaluating the quality of environment (using MAC and MAL) does not enable to assess completely and objectively the work conditions of building industry due to multiple confounding elements. A solution to this complicated problem including the analysis of various correlating elements of the system "human--work conditions--environment" may be encouraged by social norm of morbidity, which is independent on industrial and natural environment. The complete integral assessment enables to see the whole situation and reveal the points at risk.

IT Operational Risk Measurement Model Based on Internal Loss Data of Banks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Xiaoling

Business operation of banks relies increasingly on information technology (IT) and the most important role of IT is to guarantee the operational continuity of business process. Therefore, IT Risk management efforts need to be seen from the perspective of operational continuity. Traditional IT risk studies focused on IT asset-based risk analysis and risk-matrix based qualitative risk evaluation. In practice, IT risk management practices of banking industry are still limited to the IT department and aren't integrated into business risk management, which causes the two departments to work in isolation. This paper presents an improved methodology for dealing with IT operational risk. It adopts quantitative measurement method, based on the internal business loss data about IT events, and uses Monte Carlo simulation to predict the potential losses. We establish the correlation between the IT resources and business processes to make sure risk management of IT and business can work synergistically.

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

PubMed

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing stakeholder perspectives on invasive plants to inform risk analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Conservation and land management decisions are often based primarily on natural science, but could be more successful if human influences were effectively integrated into decision-making. This is especially true for efforts to manage invasive plants, whose arrival is usually the product of delibera...

Evaluation of UK Integrated Care Pilots: research protocol.

PubMed

Ling, Tom; Bardsley, Martin; Adams, John; Lewis, Richard; Roland, Martin

2010-09-27

In response to concerns that the needs of the aging population for well-integrated care were increasing, the English National Health Service (NHS) appointed 16 Integrated Care Pilots following a national competition. The pilots have a range of aims including development of new organisational structures to support integration, changes in staff roles, reducing unscheduled emergency hospital admissions, reduced length of hospital stay, increasing patient satisfaction, and reducing cost. This paper describes the evaluation of the initiative which has been commissioned. A mixed methods approach has been adopted including interviews with staff and patients, non-participant observation of meetings, structured written feedback from sites, questionnaires to patients and staff, and analysis of routinely collected hospital utilisation data for patients/service users. The qualitative analysis aims to identify the approaches taken to integration by the sites, the benefits which result, the context in which benefits have resulted, and the mechanisms by which they occur. The quantitative analysis adopts a 'difference in differences' approach comparing health care utilisation before and after the intervention with risk-matched controls. The qualitative data analysis adopts a 'theory of change' approach in which we triangulate data from the quantitative analysis with qualitative data in order to describe causal effects (what happens when an independent variable changes) and causal mechanisms (what connects causes to their effects). An economic analysis will identify what incremental resources are required to make integration succeed and how they can be combined efficiently to produce better outcomes for patients. This evaluation will produce a portfolio of evidence aimed at strengthening the evidence base for integrated care, and in particular identifying the context in which interventions are likely to be effective. These data will support a series of evaluation judgements aimed at reducing uncertainties about the role of integrated care in improving the efficient and effective delivery of healthcare.

Integrated risk management and communication: case study of Canton Vaud (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigue, Veronica; Aye, Zar Chi; Gerber, Christian; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Canton Vaud's history is marked by events that remind us that any territory may have to cope with natural hazards such as devastating floods of the Baye and the Veraye rivers in Montreux (1927), the overflowing of the Rhône by dam failure (1935), the mud flow of Pissot (1995) and avalanches in the Prealps (1999). All of these examples have caused significant damage, and sometimes even fatalities, in the regions of Canton Vaud. In response to these new issues, the Swiss Confederation and the local authorities of the Canton decided to implement an integrated management policy of natural risks. The realization of natural hazards maps was the first step of the integrated management process. This work resulted in more than 10'000 maps and related documents for 94% of the municipalities of the Canton, covering 17% of its total surface. From this significant amount of data, the main issue is to propose a relevant communication and to build an integrated risk management structure. To make this available information relevant for end users, the implied teams worked to realize documents and tools for a better understanding of these data by all stakeholders. The first step of this process was to carry out a statistical and geographical analysis of hazard maps that allows identifying the most exposed areas to natural hazards. An atlas could thus be created. Then, continued under this framework, several topics have been discussed for each identified risk. The results show that 88 of 318 municipalities in Canton Vaud have at least a high hazard level on their territory, 108 with a moderate hazard level, 41 with a low level and 8 with a residual level. Only 73 of 318 municipalities remain with a minimum or zero hazard level. Concerning the type of hazard considered, 16% of the building zones are exposed to floods, 18% to mud flow, 16% to deep landslides, 14% to spontaneous surface landslides, 6% to rockfall, 55% to rock collapses and less than 5% to avalanches. As the national policies require to take into account the risk at the building scale, further analysis on the buildings have been made. 1'154 buildings are exposed to a high hazard level, while 8409, 21'130 and 14'980 buildings are exposed to a moderate, low and residual hazard level respectively. This paper addresses the complexity of the realization of the hazard map products of the Canton Vaud, particularly through the statistical analysis and the difficulties encountered for data availability and quality at the building scale. The authors highlight the necessary processes to build a robust communication for all the implied stakeholders of risk management in a dynamic and changing area through the example of the Canton Vaud.

Spatio-temporal assessment of food safety risks in Canadian food distribution systems using GIS.

PubMed

Hashemi Beni, Leila; Villeneuve, Sébastien; LeBlanc, Denyse I; Côté, Kevin; Fazil, Aamir; Otten, Ainsley; McKellar, Robin; Delaquis, Pascal

2012-09-01

While the value of geographic information systems (GIS) is widely applied in public health there have been comparatively few examples of applications that extend to the assessment of risks in food distribution systems. GIS can provide decision makers with strong computing platforms for spatial data management, integration, analysis, querying and visualization. The present report addresses some spatio-analyses in a complex food distribution system and defines influence areas as travel time zones generated through road network analysis on a national scale rather than on a community scale. In addition, a dynamic risk index is defined to translate a contamination event into a public health risk as time progresses. More specifically, in this research, GIS is used to map the Canadian produce distribution system, analyze accessibility to contaminated product by consumers, and estimate the level of risk associated with a contamination event over time, as illustrated in a scenario. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1; System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Smith, Curtis; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert

2011-01-01

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Translating reference doses into allergen management practice: challenges for stakeholders.

PubMed

Crevel, René W R; Baumert, Joseph L; Luccioli, Stefano; Baka, Athanasia; Hattersley, Sue; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B; Ronsmans, Stefan; Timmermans, Frans; Ward, Rachel; Chung, Yong-joo

2014-05-01

Risk assessment describes the impact of a particular hazard as a function of dose and exposure. It forms the foundation of risk management and contributes to the overall decision-making process, but is not its endpoint. This paper outlines a risk analysis framework to underpin decision-making in the area of allergen cross-contact. Specifically, it identifies challenges relevant to each component of the risk analysis: risk assessment (data gaps and output interpretation); risk management (clear and realistic objectives); and risk communication (clear articulation of risk and benefit). Translation of the outputs from risk assessment models into risk management measures must be informed by a clear understanding of the model outputs and their limitations. This will lead to feasible and achievable risk management objectives, grounded in a level of risk accepted by the different stakeholders, thereby avoiding potential unintended detrimental consequences. Clear, consistent and trustworthy communications actively involving all stakeholders underpin these objectives. The conclusions, integrating the perspectives of different stakeholders, offer a vision where clear, science-based benchmarks form the basis of allergen management and labelling, cutting through the current confusion and uncertainty. Finally, the paper recognises that the proposed framework must be adaptable to new and emerging evidence. Copyright © 2014 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

PubMed

Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

2013-01-01

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Not all risks are created equal: A twin study and meta-analyses of risk taking across seven domains.

PubMed

Wang, X T Xiao-Tian; Zheng, Rui; Xuan, Yan-Hua; Chen, Jie; Li, Shu

2016-11-01

Humans routinely deal with both traditional and novel risks. Different kinds of risks have been a driving force for both evolutionary adaptations and personal development. This study explored the genetic and environmental influences on human risk taking in different task domains. Our approach was threefold. First, we integrated several scales of domain-specific risk-taking propensity and developed a synthetic scale, including both evolutionarily typical and modern risks in the following 7 domains: cooperation/competition, safety, reproduction, natural/physical risk, moral risk, financial risk, and gambling. Second, we conducted a twin study using the scale to estimate the contributions of genes and environment to risk taking in each of these 7 domains. Third, we conducted a series of meta-analyses of extant twin studies across the 7 risk domains. The results showed that individual differences in risk-taking propensity and its consistency across domains were mainly regulated by additive genetic influences and individually unique environmental experiences. The heritability estimates from the meta-analyses ranged from 29% in financial risk taking to 55% in safety. Supporting the notion of risk-domain specificity, both the behavioral and genetic correlations among the 7 domains were generally low. Among the relatively few correlations between pairs of risk domains, our analysis revealed a common genetic factor that regulates moral, financial, and natural/physical risk taking. This is the first effort to separate genetic and environmental influences on risk taking across multiple domains in a single study and integrate the findings of extant twin studies via a series of meta-analyses conducted in different task domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Olive, Marie-Marie; Chevalier, Véronique; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Durand, Benoit; Ravalohery, Jean-Pierre; Andriamamonjy, Seta; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel

2016-01-01

Background Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008–2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. Methodology/Principal Findings First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle. Conclusions/Significance Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of vectorial or direct transmissions could be further assessed by mathematic modelling. PMID:27415438

Integrated Analysis of Environment, Cattle and Human Serological Data: Risks and Mechanisms of Transmission of Rift Valley Fever in Madagascar.

PubMed

Olive, Marie-Marie; Chevalier, Véronique; Grosbois, Vladimir; Tran, Annelise; Andriamandimby, Soa-Fy; Durand, Benoit; Ravalohery, Jean-Pierre; Andriamamonjy, Seta; Rakotomanana, Fanjasoa; Rogier, Christophe; Heraud, Jean-Michel

2016-07-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease affecting ruminants and humans. Madagascar was heavily affected by RVF in 2008-2009, with evidence of a large and heterogeneous spread of the disease. The identification of at-risk environments is essential to optimize the available resources by targeting RVF surveillance in Madagascar. Herein, the objectives of our study were: (i) to identify the environmental factors and areas favorable to RVF transmission to both cattle and human and (ii) to identify human behaviors favoring human infections in Malagasy contexts. First, we characterized the environments of Malagasy communes using a Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA). Then, we analyzed cattle and human serological data collected at national level using Generalized Linear Mixed Models, with the individual serological status (cattle or human) as the response, and MFA factors, as well as other potential risk factors (cattle density, human behavior) as explanatory variables. Cattle and human seroprevalence rates were positively associated to humid environments (p<0.001). Areas with high cattle density were at risk (p<0.01; OR = 2.6). Furthermore, our analysis showed that frequent contact with raw milk contributed to explain human infection (OR = 1.6). Finally, our study highlighted the eastern-coast, western and north-western parts as high-risk areas for RVF transmission in cattle. Our integrated approach analyzing environmental, cattle and human datasets allow us to bring new insight on RVF transmission patterns in Madagascar. The association between cattle seroprevalence, humid environments and high cattle density suggests that concomitant vectorial and direct transmissions are critical to maintain RVF enzootic transmission. Additionally, in the at-risk humid environment of the western, north-western and the eastern-coast areas, suitable to Culex and Anopheles mosquitoes, vectorial transmission probably occurs in both cattle and human. The relative contribution of vectorial or direct transmissions could be further assessed by mathematic modelling.

Patient Segmentation Analysis Offers Significant Benefits For Integrated Care And Support.

PubMed

Vuik, Sabine I; Mayer, Erik K; Darzi, Ara

2016-05-01

Integrated care aims to organize care around the patient instead of the provider. It is therefore crucial to understand differences across patients and their needs. Segmentation analysis that uses big data can help divide a patient population into distinct groups, which can then be targeted with care models and intervention programs tailored to their needs. In this article we explore the potential applications of patient segmentation in integrated care. We propose a framework for population strategies in integrated care-whole populations, subpopulations, and high-risk populations-and show how patient segmentation can support these strategies. Through international case examples, we illustrate practical considerations such as choosing a segmentation logic, accessing data, and tailoring care models. Important issues for policy makers to consider are trade-offs between simplicity and precision, trade-offs between customized and off-the-shelf solutions, and the availability of linked data sets. We conclude that segmentation can provide many benefits to integrated care, and we encourage policy makers to support its use. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Systematic review of sensory integration therapy for individuals with disabilities: Single case design studies.

PubMed

Leong, H M; Carter, Mark; Stephenson, Jennifer

2015-12-01

Sensory integration therapy (SIT) is a controversial intervention that is widely used for people with disabilities. Systematic analysis was conducted on the outcomes of 17 single case design studies on sensory integration therapy for people with, or at-risk of, a developmental or learning disability, disorder or delay. An assessment of the quality of methodology of the studies found most used weak designs and poor methodology, with a tendency for higher quality studies to produce negative results. Based on limited comparative evidence, functional analysis-based interventions for challenging behavior were more effective that SIT. Overall the studies do not provide convincing evidence for the efficacy of sensory integration therapy. Given the findings of the present review and other recent analyses it is advised that the use of SIT be limited to experimental contexts. Issues with the studies and possible improvements for future research are discussed including the need to employ designs that allow for adequate demonstration of experimental control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Feather, Martin; Rutledge, Peter; Sen, Dev; Youngblood, Robert

2015-01-01

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Assessing exposure risks for freshwater tilapia species posed by mercury and methylmercury.

PubMed

Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; You, Shu-Han; Yang, Ying-Fei; How, Chun Ming; Tseng, Yi-Ting; Chen, Wei-Yu; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-08-01

Waterborne and dietborne exposures of freshwater fish to mercury (Hg) in the forms of inorganic (Hg(II)) and organic (methylmercury or MeHg) affect their growth, development, and reproduction. However, an integrated mechanistic risk model framework to predict the impact of Hg(II)/MeHg on freshwater fish is lacking. Here, we integrated biokinetic, physiological and biogeographic data to calibrate and then establish key risk indices-hazardous quotient and exceedance risk-for freshwater tilapia species across geographic ranges of several major rivers in Taiwan. We found that Hg(II) burden was highest in kidney followed by gill, intestine, liver, blood, and muscle. Our results showed that Hg was less likely to pose mortality risk (mortality rate less than 5 %) for freshwater tilapia species. However, Hg is likely to pose the potential hazard to aquatic environments constrained by safety levels for aquatic organisms. Sensitivity analysis showed that amount of Hg accumulated in tilapia was most influenced by sediment uptake rate. Our approach opens up new possibilities for predicting future fish population health with the impacts of continued Hg exposure to provide information on which fish are deemed safe for human consumption.

Integrated e-Health approach based on vascular ultrasound and pulse wave analysis for asymptomatic atherosclerosis detection and cardiovascular risk stratification in the community.

PubMed

Santana, Daniel Bia; Zócalo, Yanina A; Armentano, Ricardo L

2012-03-01

New strategies are urgently needed to identify subjects at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD) development or complications. A National Public University Center (CUiiDARTE) was created in Uruguay, based on six main pillars: 1) integration of experts in different disciplines and creation of multidisciplinary teams, 2) incidence in public and professional education programs to give training in the use of new technologies and to shift the focus from ACVD treatment to disease prevention, 3) implementation of free vascular studies in the community (distributed rather than centralized healthcare), 4) innovation and application of e-Health and noninvasive technology and approaches, 5) design and development of a biomedical approach to determine the target population and patient workflow, and 6) improvement in individual risk estimation and differentiation between aging and ACVD-related arterial changes using population-based epidemiological and statistical patient-specific models. This work describes main features of CUiiDARTE project implementation, the scientific and technological steps and innovations done for individual risk stratification, and sub-clinical ACVD diagnosis. © 2012 IEEE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

2009-04-01

Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

Risk evaluation of highway engineering project based on the fuzzy-AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Qian; Wei, Yajun

2011-10-01

Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with technology, economy, management and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it needs to strengthen risk management urgently. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of highway engineering, and the study of the basic theory on risk evaluation, the paper built an index system of highway project risk evaluation. Besides based on fuzzy mathematics principle, analytical hierarchy process was used and as a result, the model of the comprehensive appraisal method of fuzzy and AHP was set up for the risk evaluation of express way concessionary project. The validity and the practicability of the risk evaluation of expressway concessionary project were verified after the model was applied to the practice of a project.

An Approach to Risk-Based Design Incorporating Damage Tolerance Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Sleight, David W.

2002-01-01

Incorporating risk-based design as an integral part of spacecraft development is becoming more and more common. Assessment of uncertainties associated with design parameters and environmental aspects such as loading provides increased knowledge of the design and its performance. Results of such studies can contribute to mitigating risk through a system-level assessment. Understanding the risk of an event occurring, the probability of its occurrence, and the consequences of its occurrence can lead to robust, reliable designs. This paper describes an approach to risk-based structural design incorporating damage-tolerance analysis. The application of this approach to a candidate Earth-entry vehicle is described. The emphasis of the paper is on describing an approach for establishing damage-tolerant structural response inputs to a system-level probabilistic risk assessment.

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF WATERBORNE INFECTIOUS DISEASE RISK USING THE HYDRAULIC MODEL AND OUTPATIENT DATA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amano, Ayako; Sakuma, Taisuke; Kazama, So

This study evaluated waterborne infectious diseases risk and incidence rate around Phonm Penh in Cambodia. We use the hydraulic flood simulation, coliform bacterium diffusion model, dose-response model and outpatient data for quantitative analysis. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The incidence (incidence rate) of diarrhea as water borne diseases risk is 0.14 million people (9%) in the inundation area. 2. The residents in the inundation area are exposed up to 4 times as high risk as daily mean calculated by the integrated model combined in the regional scale. 3.The infectious disease risk due to floods and inundation indicated is effective as an element to explain the risk. The scenario explains 34% number of patient estimated by the outpatient data.

Extended device profiles and testing procedures for the approval process of integrated medical devices using the IEEE 11073 communication standard.

PubMed

Janß, Armin; Thorn, Johannes; Schmitz, Malte; Mildner, Alexander; Dell'Anna-Pudlik, Jasmin; Leucker, Martin; Radermacher, Klaus

2018-02-23

Nowadays, only closed and proprietary integrated operating room systems (IORS) from big manufacturers are available on the market. Hence, the interconnection of components from third-party vendors is only possible with increased time and costs. In the context of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)-funded project OR.NET (2012-2016), the open integration of medical devices from different manufacturers was addressed. An integrated operating theater based on the open communication standard IEEE 11073 shall give clinical operators the opportunity to choose medical devices independently of the manufacturer. This approach would be advantageous especially for hospital operators and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SME) of medical devices. Actual standards and concepts regarding technical feasibility and the approval process do not cope with the requirements for a modular integration of medical devices in the operating room (OR), based on an open communication standard. Therefore, innovative approval strategies and corresponding certification and test procedures, which cover actual legal and normative standards, have to be developed in order to support the future risk management and the usability engineering process of open integrated medical devices in the OR. The use of standardized device and service profiles and a three-step testing procedure, including conformity, interoperability and integration tests are described in this paper and shall support the manufacturers to integrate their medical devices without disclosing the medical devices' risk analysis and related confidential expertise or proprietary information.

An integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of Helleh protected area in Iran.

PubMed

Jozi, S A; Shafiee, M; MoradiMajd, N; Saffarian, S

2012-11-01

This study aims to use integrated Shannon's Entropy-TOPSIS methodology for environmental risk assessment of the Helleh protected area in Iran. In this research, first, with regard to field visits, interview with natives of the area, and investigation of the environment of the study area, the risks existing in the region were identified. Then, for final identification of the risks, the Delphi method was applied. Analysis and prioritization of risks of the area of Helleh were performed by multi-criteria decision-making methods of Shannon's Entropy and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In this research, risks were assessed by three criteria of severity, probability of occurrence, and vulnerability. Twenty six of the risks were identified which were specified in two groups, natural events and environmental risks. The environmental ones were classified into four groups: physicochemical, biological, social-economic, and cultural. Results of the research showed that the construction of the Rayis-Ali-Delvari Dam at the upper part of the study area threatens the wetland. Water supply for the dam 75 km away from the area with concession of 0.9999 holds the first priority of risk-generating factors. Of the managerial workable solutions suggested controlling the risks, the stopping of the pumping of water from the wetland and observation of hunting season length and permissible type and number of hunting in the area can be mentioned.

Towards a Multi-Resolution Model of Seismic Risk in Central Asia. Challenge and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, M.; Wieland, M.; Bindi, D.; Parolai, S.

2011-12-01

Assessing seismic risk, defined as the probability of occurrence of economical and social losses as consequence of an earthquake, both at regional and at local scale is a challenging, multi-disciplinary task. In order to provide a reliable estimate, diverse information must be gathered by seismologists, geologists, engineers and civil authorities, and carefully integrated keeping into account the different levels of uncertainty. The research towards an integrated methodology, able to seamlessly describe seismic risk at different spatial scales is challenging, but discloses new application perspectives, particularly in those countries which suffer from a relevant seismic hazard but do not have resources for a standard assessment. Central Asian countries in particular, which exhibit one of the highest seismic hazard in the world, are experiencing a steady demographic growth, often accompanied by informal settlement and urban sprawling. A reliable evaluation of how these factors affect the seismic risk, together with a realistic assessment of the assets exposed to seismic hazard and their structural vulnerability is of particular importance, in order to undertake proper mitigation actions and to promptly and efficiently react to a catastrophic event. New strategies are needed to efficiently cope with systematic lack of information and uncertainties. An original approach is presented to assess seismic risk based on integration of information coming from remote-sensing and ground-based panoramic imaging, in situ measurements, expert knowledge and already available data. Efficient sampling strategies based on freely available medium-resolution multi-spectral satellite images are adopted to optimize data collection and validation, in a multi-scale approach. Panoramic imaging is also considered as a valuable ground-based visual data collection technique, suitable both for manual and automatic analysis. A full-probabilistic framework based on Bayes Network is proposed to integrate available information taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An improved risk model for the capital of Kyrgyz Republic, Biskek, has been developed following this approach and tested based on different earthquake scenarios. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed.

Landslide risk impact management and web services for improving resilience: the LIFE+IMAGINE project approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Congi, Maria Pia; Campo, Valentina; Cipolloni, Carlo; Delmonaco, Giuseppe; Guerrieri, Luca; Iadanza, Carla; Spizzichino, Daniele; Trigila, Alessandro

2014-05-01

The increasing damage caused by natural disasters in the last decades points out the need for interoperable added-value services to support environmental safety and human protection, by reducing vulnerability of exposed elements as well as improving the resilience of the involved communities. For this reason, to provide access to harmonized and customized data is only one of several steps towards delivering adequate support to risk assessment, reduction and management. Scope of the present work is to illustrate a methodology under development for analysis of potential impacts in areas prone to landslide hazard in the framework of the EC project LIFE+IMAGINE. The project aims to implement an infrastructure based on web services for environmental analysis, that integrates in its own architecture specifications and results from INSPIRE, SEIS and GMES. Existing web services will be customized during the project to provide functionalities for supporting the environmental integrated management. The implemented infrastructure will be applied to landslide risk scenarios, to be developed in selected pilot areas, aiming at: i) application of standard procedures to implement a landslide risk analysis; ii) definition of a procedure for assessment of potential environmental impacts, based on a set of indicators to estimate the different exposed elements with their specific vulnerability in the pilot area. More in detail, the landslide pilot will be aimed at providing a landslide risk scenario through the implementation and analysis of: 1) a landslide inventory from available historical databases and maps; 2) landslide susceptibility and hazard maps; 3) assessment of exposure and vulnerability on selected typologies of elements at risk; 4) implementation of a landslide risk scenario for different sets of exposed elements (e.g. population, road network, residential area, cultural heritage). The pilot will be implemented in Liguria, Italy, in two different catchment areas located in the Cinque Terre National Park, characterized by a high landslide susceptibility and low resilience, being highly vulnerable to landslides induced by heavy rainfall. The landslide risk impact analysis will be calibrated taking into account the socio-economic damage caused by landslides triggered by the October 2011 meteorological event. Most of landslides affected the diffuse system of anthropogenic terraces and caused the direct disruption of the walls as well as transportation of a large amount of loose sediments along the slopes and channels as induced consequence of the event. The final target of the landslide risk assessment scenario will be to improve the knowledge and awareness on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and landslide risk in the Cinque Terre National Park to the benefit of local authorities and population. In addition, the results of the application can have a practical and positive effects for i.e. i) updating the land planning process in order to improve the resilience of local communities, ii) implementing preliminary cost-benefit analysis aimed at the definition of guidelines for sustainable landslide risk mitigation strategies, iii) suggesting a general road map for the implementation of a local adaptation plan.

The Integration of Family and Group Therapy as an Alternative to Juvenile Incarceration: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation Using Parenting with Love and Limits.

PubMed

Karam, Eli A; Sterrett, Emma M; Kiaer, Lynn

2017-06-01

The current study employed a quasi-experimental design using both intent-to-treat and protocol adherence analysis of 155 moderate- to high-risk juvenile offenders to evaluate the effectiveness of Parenting with Love and Limits® (PLL), an integrative group and family therapy approach. Youth completing PLL had significantly lower rates of recidivism than the comparison group. Parents also reported statistically significant improvements in youth behavior. Lengths of service were also significantly shorter for the treatment sample than the matched comparison group by an average of 4 months. This study contributes to the literature by suggesting that intensive community-based combined family and group treatment is effective in curbing recidivism among high-risk juveniles. © 2015 Family Process Institute.

Role of data warehousing in healthcare epidemiology.

PubMed

Wyllie, D; Davies, J

2015-04-01

Electronic storage of healthcare data, including individual-level risk factors for both infectious and other diseases, is increasing. These data can be integrated at hospital, regional and national levels. Data sources that contain risk factor and outcome information for a wide range of conditions offer the potential for efficient epidemiological analysis of multiple diseases. Opportunities may also arise for monitoring healthcare processes. Integrating diverse data sources presents epidemiological, practical, and ethical challenges. For example, diagnostic criteria, outcome definitions, and ascertainment methods may differ across the data sources. Data volumes may be very large, requiring sophisticated computing technology. Given the large populations involved, perhaps the most challenging aspect is how informed consent can be obtained for the development of integrated databases, particularly when it is not easy to demonstrate their potential. In this article, we discuss some of the ups and downs of recent projects as well as the potential of data warehousing for antimicrobial resistance monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Derailment-based Fault Tree Analysis on Risk Management of Railway Turnout Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dindar, Serdar; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat; An, Min; Gigante-Barrera, Ángel

2017-10-01

Railway turnouts are fundamental mechanical infrastructures, which allow a rolling stock to divert one direction to another. As those are of a large number of engineering subsystems, e.g. track, signalling, earthworks, these particular sub-systems are expected to induce high potential through various kind of failure mechanisms. This could be a cause of any catastrophic event. A derailment, one of undesirable events in railway operation, often results, albeit rare occurs, in damaging to rolling stock, railway infrastructure and disrupt service, and has the potential to cause casualties and even loss of lives. As a result, it is quite significant that a well-designed risk analysis is performed to create awareness of hazards and to identify what parts of the systems may be at risk. This study will focus on all types of environment based failures as a result of numerous contributing factors noted officially as accident reports. This risk analysis is designed to help industry to minimise the occurrence of accidents at railway turnouts. The methodology of the study relies on accurate assessment of derailment likelihood, and is based on statistical multiple factors-integrated accident rate analysis. The study is prepared in the way of establishing product risks and faults, and showing the impact of potential process by Boolean algebra.

Integrated continuous bioprocessing: Economic, operational, and environmental feasibility for clinical and commercial antibody manufacture.

PubMed

Pollock, James; Coffman, Jon; Ho, Sa V; Farid, Suzanne S

2017-07-01

This paper presents a systems approach to evaluating the potential of integrated continuous bioprocessing for monoclonal antibody (mAb) manufacture across a product's lifecycle from preclinical to commercial manufacture. The economic, operational, and environmental feasibility of alternative continuous manufacturing strategies were evaluated holistically using a prototype UCL decisional tool that integrated process economics, discrete-event simulation, environmental impact analysis, operational risk analysis, and multiattribute decision-making. The case study focused on comparing whole bioprocesses that used either batch, continuous or a hybrid combination of batch and continuous technologies for cell culture, capture chromatography, and polishing chromatography steps. The cost of goods per gram (COG/g), E-factor, and operational risk scores of each strategy were established across a matrix of scenarios with differing combinations of clinical development phase and company portfolio size. The tool outputs predict that the optimal strategy for early phase production and small/medium-sized companies is the integrated continuous strategy (alternating tangential flow filtration (ATF) perfusion, continuous capture, continuous polishing). However, the top ranking strategy changes for commercial production and companies with large portfolios to the hybrid strategy with fed-batch culture, continuous capture and batch polishing from a COG/g perspective. The multiattribute decision-making analysis highlighted that if the operational feasibility was considered more important than the economic benefits, the hybrid strategy would be preferred for all company scales. Further considerations outside the scope of this work include the process development costs required to adopt continuous processing. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:854-866, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Integrated continuous bioprocessing: Economic, operational, and environmental feasibility for clinical and commercial antibody manufacture

PubMed Central

Pollock, James; Coffman, Jon; Ho, Sa V.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a systems approach to evaluating the potential of integrated continuous bioprocessing for monoclonal antibody (mAb) manufacture across a product's lifecycle from preclinical to commercial manufacture. The economic, operational, and environmental feasibility of alternative continuous manufacturing strategies were evaluated holistically using a prototype UCL decisional tool that integrated process economics, discrete‐event simulation, environmental impact analysis, operational risk analysis, and multiattribute decision‐making. The case study focused on comparing whole bioprocesses that used either batch, continuous or a hybrid combination of batch and continuous technologies for cell culture, capture chromatography, and polishing chromatography steps. The cost of goods per gram (COG/g), E‐factor, and operational risk scores of each strategy were established across a matrix of scenarios with differing combinations of clinical development phase and company portfolio size. The tool outputs predict that the optimal strategy for early phase production and small/medium‐sized companies is the integrated continuous strategy (alternating tangential flow filtration (ATF) perfusion, continuous capture, continuous polishing). However, the top ranking strategy changes for commercial production and companies with large portfolios to the hybrid strategy with fed‐batch culture, continuous capture and batch polishing from a COG/g perspective. The multiattribute decision‐making analysis highlighted that if the operational feasibility was considered more important than the economic benefits, the hybrid strategy would be preferred for all company scales. Further considerations outside the scope of this work include the process development costs required to adopt continuous processing. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:854–866, 2017 PMID:28480535

The importance of integrated left atrial evaluation: From hypertension to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

PubMed

Beltrami, Matteo; Palazzuoli, Alberto; Padeletti, Luigi; Cerbai, Elisabetta; Coiro, Stefano; Emdin, Michele; Marcucci, Rossella; Morrone, Doralisa; Cameli, Matteo; Savino, Ketty; Pedrinelli, Roberto; Ambrosio, Giuseppe

2018-02-01

Functional analysis and measurement of left atrium are an integral part of cardiac evaluation, and they represent a key element during non-invasive analysis of diastolic function in patients with hypertension (HT) and/or heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, diastolic dysfunction remains quite elusive regarding classification, and atrial size and function are two key factors for left ventricular (LV) filling evaluation. Chronic left atrial (LA) remodelling is the final step of chronic intra-cavitary pressure overload, and it accompanies increased neurohormonal, proarrhythmic and prothrombotic activities. In this systematic review, we aim to purpose a multi-modality approach for LA geometry and function analysis, which integrates diastolic flow with LA characteristics and remodelling through application of both traditional and new diagnostic tools. The most important studies published in the literature on LA size, function and diastolic dysfunction in patients with HFpEF, HT and/or atrial fibrillation (AF) are considered and discussed. In HFpEF and HT, pulsed and tissue Doppler assessments are useful tools to estimate LV filling pressure, atrio-ventricular coupling and LV relaxation but they need to be enriched with LA evaluation in terms of morphology and function. An integrated evaluation should be also applied to patients with a high arrhythmic risk, in whom eccentric LA remodelling and higher LA stiffness are associated with a greater AF risk. Evaluation of LA size, volume, function and structure are mandatory in the management of patients with HT, HFpEF and AF. A multi-modality approach could provide additional information, identifying subjects with more severe LA remodelling. Left atrium assessment deserves an accurate study inside the cardiac imaging approach and optimised measurement with established cut-offs need to be better recognised through multicenter studies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Proposed key characteristics of male reproductive toxicants as a method for organizing and screening mechanistic evidence for non-cancer outcomes.

EPA Science Inventory

The adoption of systematic review practices for risk assessment includes integration of evidence obtained from experimental, epidemiological, and mechanistic studies. Although mechanistic evidence plays an important role in mode of action analysis, the process of sorting and anal...

Systems Analysis | Hydrogen and Fuel Cells | NREL

Science.gov Websites

risks. Analysts also develop least-cost scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure rollout in support of the opportunities for multi-sector integration using hydrogen systems as well as the capability and cost associated with the H2USA public-private collaboration. Publications The following technical reports

SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Energy Technology and Market Risk Reduction | Integrated Energy Solutions |

Science.gov Websites

Leveraging our market and project development expertise, NREL offers a broad range of advisory services to policy and regulatory analysis, financing alternatives, project management, proposal reviews, and project , solar permitting standards, and more. Project Financing Alternatives We can help your organization

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will perform its intended function(s) for a specified mission profile. In general, the reliability metric can be calculated through the analyses using reliability demonstration and reliability prediction methodologies. Reliability analysis is very critical for understanding component failure mechanisms and in identifying reliability critical design and process drivers. The following sections discuss the PRA process and reliability engineering in detail and provide an application where reliability analysis and PRA were jointly used in a complementary manner to support a Space Shuttle flight risk assessment.

Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George A. Beitel

2004-02-01

In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

A risk explicit interval linear programming model for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization in the Lake Fuxian watershed, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoling; Huang, Kai; Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of "low risk and high return efficiency" in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management.

A Risk Explicit Interval Linear Programming Model for Uncertainty-Based Environmental Economic Optimization in the Lake Fuxian Watershed, China

PubMed Central

Zou, Rui; Liu, Yong; Yu, Yajuan

2013-01-01

The conflict of water environment protection and economic development has brought severe water pollution and restricted the sustainable development in the watershed. A risk explicit interval linear programming (REILP) method was used to solve integrated watershed environmental-economic optimization problem. Interval linear programming (ILP) and REILP models for uncertainty-based environmental economic optimization at the watershed scale were developed for the management of Lake Fuxian watershed, China. Scenario analysis was introduced into model solution process to ensure the practicality and operability of optimization schemes. Decision makers' preferences for risk levels can be expressed through inputting different discrete aspiration level values into the REILP model in three periods under two scenarios. Through balancing the optimal system returns and corresponding system risks, decision makers can develop an efficient industrial restructuring scheme based directly on the window of “low risk and high return efficiency” in the trade-off curve. The representative schemes at the turning points of two scenarios were interpreted and compared to identify a preferable planning alternative, which has the relatively low risks and nearly maximum benefits. This study provides new insights and proposes a tool, which was REILP, for decision makers to develop an effectively environmental economic optimization scheme in integrated watershed management. PMID:24191144

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Multi-Mission System Analysis for Planetary Entry (M-SAPE) Version 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samareh, Jamshid; Glaab, Louis; Winski, Richard G.; Maddock, Robert W.; Emmett, Anjie L.; Munk, Michelle M.; Agrawal, Parul; Sepka, Steve; Aliaga, Jose; Zarchi, Kerry;

AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT (Journal Article)

EPA Science Inventory

In order to promote international understanding and acceptance of the integrated risk assessment process, the WHO/IPCS, in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and the OECD, initiated a number of activities related to integrated risk assessment. In this project, WHO/IPCS defines inte...

Community, State, and Federal Approaches to Cumulative Risk Assessment: Challenges and Opportunities for Integration

PubMed Central

Barzyk, Timothy M.; Wilson, Sacoby; Wilson, Anthony

2015-01-01

Community, state, and federal approaches to conventional and cumulative risk assessment (CRA) were described and compared to assess similarities and differences, and develop recommendations for a consistent CRA approach, acceptable across each level as a rigorous scientific methodology, including partnership formation and solution development as necessary practices. Community, state, and federal examples were described and then summarized based on their adherence to CRA principles of: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) risk analysis and ranking, and (3) risk characterization, interpretation, and management. While each application shared the common goal of protecting human health and the environment, they adopted different approaches to achieve this. For a specific project-level analysis of a particular place or instance, this may be acceptable, but to ensure long-term applicability and transferability to other projects, recommendations for developing a consistent approach to CRA are provided. This approach would draw from best practices, risk assessment and decision analysis sciences, and historical lessons learned to provide results in an understandable and accepted manner by all entities. This approach is intended to provide a common ground around which to develop CRA methods and approaches that can be followed at all levels. PMID:25918910

Assessing plant protection practices using pressure indicator and toxicity risk indicators: analysis of therelationship between these indicators for improved risk management, application in viticulture.

PubMed

Oussama, Mghirbi; Kamel, Ellefi; Philippe, Le Grusse; Elisabeth, Mandart; Jacques, Fabre; Habiba, Ayadi; Jean-Paul, Bord

2015-06-01

The excessive use of plant protection products (PPPs) has given rise to issues of public and environmental health because of their toxicity. Reducing the use of toxic PPPs and replacing them with products that are less toxic for human health and the environment have become socially, environmentally and economically indispensable. In this article, we assess the plant protection practices of a small group of winegrowers practicing "integrated agriculture" in the south of France, in order to measure the benefit of using toxicity risk indicators as a decision-support tool for different players in land management. An analysis of plant protection practices using indicators of the risk to operator health and the environment (IRSA, IRTE), together with a frequency-of-treatment indicator (TFI), enabled us to (i) show the variability of these indicators depending on the production system and farmers' pesticide use strategies and (ii) calculate correlations between these indicators. This analysis of plant protection practices at different scales (farm, field), carried out in collaboration with the growers, enabled us to perform an initial validation of decision-support tools for determining risk management strategies regarding the use of pesticides.

Unified Sequence-Based Association Tests Allowing for Multiple Functional Annotations and Meta-analysis of Noncoding Variation in Metabochip Data.

PubMed

He, Zihuai; Xu, Bin; Lee, Seunggeun; Ionita-Laza, Iuliana

2017-09-07

Substantial progress has been made in the functional annotation of genetic variation in the human genome. Integrative analysis that incorporates such functional annotations into sequencing studies can aid the discovery of disease-associated genetic variants, especially those with unknown function and located outside protein-coding regions. Direct incorporation of one functional annotation as weight in existing dispersion and burden tests can suffer substantial loss of power when the functional annotation is not predictive of the risk status of a variant. Here, we have developed unified tests that can utilize multiple functional annotations simultaneously for integrative association analysis with efficient computational techniques. We show that the proposed tests significantly improve power when variant risk status can be predicted by functional annotations. Importantly, when functional annotations are not predictive of risk status, the proposed tests incur only minimal loss of power in relation to existing dispersion and burden tests, and under certain circumstances they can even have improved power by learning a weight that better approximates the underlying disease model in a data-adaptive manner. The tests can be constructed with summary statistics of existing dispersion and burden tests for sequencing data, therefore allowing meta-analysis of multiple studies without sharing individual-level data. We applied the proposed tests to a meta-analysis of noncoding rare variants in Metabochip data on 12,281 individuals from eight studies for lipid traits. By incorporating the Eigen functional score, we detected significant associations between noncoding rare variants in SLC22A3 and low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol, associations that are missed by standard dispersion and burden tests. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leveraging cross-species transcription factor binding site patterns: from diabetes risk loci to disease mechanisms.

PubMed

Claussnitzer, Melina; Dankel, Simon N; Klocke, Bernward; Grallert, Harald; Glunk, Viktoria; Berulava, Tea; Lee, Heekyoung; Oskolkov, Nikolay; Fadista, Joao; Ehlers, Kerstin; Wahl, Simone; Hoffmann, Christoph; Qian, Kun; Rönn, Tina; Riess, Helene; Müller-Nurasyid, Martina; Bretschneider, Nancy; Schroeder, Timm; Skurk, Thomas; Horsthemke, Bernhard; Spieler, Derek; Klingenspor, Martin; Seifert, Martin; Kern, Michael J; Mejhert, Niklas; Dahlman, Ingrid; Hansson, Ola; Hauck, Stefanie M; Blüher, Matthias; Arner, Peter; Groop, Leif; Illig, Thomas; Suhre, Karsten; Hsu, Yi-Hsiang; Mellgren, Gunnar; Hauner, Hans; Laumen, Helmut

2014-01-16

Genome-wide association studies have revealed numerous risk loci associated with diverse diseases. However, identification of disease-causing variants within association loci remains a major challenge. Divergence in gene expression due to cis-regulatory variants in noncoding regions is central to disease susceptibility. We show that integrative computational analysis of phylogenetic conservation with a complexity assessment of co-occurring transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) can identify cis-regulatory variants and elucidate their mechanistic role in disease. Analysis of established type 2 diabetes risk loci revealed a striking clustering of distinct homeobox TFBS. We identified the PRRX1 homeobox factor as a repressor of PPARG2 expression in adipose cells and demonstrate its adverse effect on lipid metabolism and systemic insulin sensitivity, dependent on the rs4684847 risk allele that triggers PRRX1 binding. Thus, cross-species conservation analysis at the level of co-occurring TFBS provides a valuable contribution to the translation of genetic association signals to disease-related molecular mechanisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

[Heavy metal pollution characteristics and ecological risk analysis for soil in Phyllostachys praecox stands of Lin'an].

PubMed

Fang, Xiao-bo; Shi, Han; Liao, Xin-feng; Lou, Zhong; Zhou, Lyu-yan; Yu, Hai-xia; Yao, Lin; Sun, Li-ping

2015-06-01

An investigation was carried out in an attempt to reveal the characteristics of heavy metals contamination in the soils of Phyllostachys praecox forest in Lin' an. Based on the concentrations of Hg, As, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co and Mn in 160 topsoil samples, the pollution status and ecological risks of heavy metals in the soils were assessed by single factor pollution index, Nemerow integrated pollution index and Hankanson potential ecological risk index. The spatial variability of heavy metal concentrations in the soils closely related to the distribution of traffic, industrial and livestock pollution sources. The average concentrations of Hg, As, Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni, Co and Mn in the soils were 0.16, 7.41, 34.36, 87.98, 103.98, 0.26, 59.12, 29.56, 11.44 and 350.26 mg · kg(-1), respectively. Pb, Cd, Zn and Cu concentrations were as 2.89, 1.70, 1.12 and 1.12 times as the background values of soil in Zhejiang Province, respectively. But their concentrations were all lower than the threshold values of the National Environmental Quality Standard for Soil (GB 15618-1995). The average single factor pollution index revealed that the level of heavy metal pollution in the soils was in order of Pb>Cd>Cu= Zn>Hg>As>Ni>Co>Cr>Mn. Pb pollution was of moderate level while Cd, Cu and Zn pollutions were slight. There was no soil pollution caused by the other heavy metals. However, the Nemerow integrated pollution index showed that all the 160 soil samples were contaminated by heavy metals to a certain extent. Among total 160 soil samples, slight pollution level, moderate pollution level and heavy pollution level accounted for 55.6%, 29.4% and 15.0%, respectively. The average single factor potential ecological risk index (Er(i)) implied that the potential ecological risk related to Cd reached moderate level, while the others were of slight level. Furthermore, Cd and Hg showed higher potential ecological risk indices which reached up to 256.82 and 187.33 respectively, indicating Cd and Hg had a strong ecological risk and therefore might pose the most serious ecological risk in the soils of P. praecox standsin Lin' an. In addition, the integrated factor potential ecological risk analysis suggested a slight risk to local ecosystem originated from heavy metal contamination in the soils of P. praecox stands in Lin'an.

Evaluations of Risks from the Lunar and Mars Radiation Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Hayat, Matthew J.; Feiveson, Alan H.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

2008-01-01

Protecting astronauts from the space radiation environments requires accurate projections of radiation in future space missions. Characterization of the ionizing radiation environment is challenging because the interplanetary plasma and radiation fields are modulated by solar disturbances and the radiation doses received by astronauts in interplanetary space are likewise influenced. The galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) flux for the next solar cycle was estimated as a function of interplanetary deceleration potential, which has been derived from GCR flux and Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last 4 decades. For the chaotic nature of solar particle event (SPE) occurrence, the mean frequency of SPE at any given proton fluence threshold during a defined mission duration was obtained from a Poisson process model using proton fluence measurements of SPEs during the past 5 solar cycles (19-23). Analytic energy spectra of 34 historically large SPEs were constructed over broad energy ranges extending to GeV. Using an integrated space radiation model (which includes the transport codes HZETRN [1] and BRYNTRN [2], and the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG[3]), the propagation and interaction properties of the energetic nucleons through various media were predicted. Risk assessment from GCR and SPE was evaluated at the specific organs inside a typical spacecraft using CAM [4] model. The representative risk level at each event size and their standard deviation were obtained from the analysis of 34 SPEs. Risks from different event sizes and their frequency of occurrences in a specified mission period were evaluated for the concern of acute health effects especially during extra-vehicular activities (EVA). The results will be useful for the development of an integrated strategy of optimizing radiation protection on the lunar and Mars missions. Keywords: Space Radiation Environments; Galactic Cosmic Radiation; Solar Particle Event; Radiation Risk; Risk Analysis; Radiation Protection.

Added prognostic value of ischaemic threshold in radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging: a common-sense integration of exercise tolerance and ischaemia severity.

PubMed

Marini, Cecilia; Acampa, Wanda; Bauckneht, Matteo; Daniele, Stefania; Capitanio, Selene; Cantoni, Valeria; Fiz, Francesco; Zampella, Emilia; Dib, Bassam; Assante, Roberta; Bruzzi, Paolo; Sambuceti, Gianmario; Cuocolo, Alberto

2015-04-01

Reversible ischaemia at radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) accurately predicts risk of cardiac death and nonfatal myocardial infarction (major adverse cardiac events, MACE). This prognostic penetrance might be empowered by accounting for exercise tolerance as an indirect index of ischaemia severity. The present study aimed to verify this hypothesis integrating imaging assessment of ischaemia severity with exercise maximal rate pressure product (RPP) in a large cohort of patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease (CAD). We analysed 1,502 consecutive patients (1,014 men aged 59 ± 10 years) submitted to exercise stress/rest MPI. To account for exercise tolerance, the summed difference score (SDS) was divided by RPP at tracer injection providing a clinical prognostic index (CPI). Reversible ischaemia was documented in 357 patients (24 %) and was classified by SDS as mild (SDS 2-4) in 180, moderate (SDS 5-7) in 118 and severe (SDS >7) in 59. CPI values of ischaemic patients were clustered into tertiles with lowest and highest values indicating low and high risk, respectively. CPI modified SDS risk prediction in 119/357 (33 %) patients. During a 60-month follow-up, MACE occurred in 68 patients. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that CPI significantly improved predictive power for MACE incidence with respect to SDS alone. Multivariate Cox analysis confirmed the additive independent value of CPI-derived information. Integration of ischaemic threshold and ischaemia extension and severity can improve accuracy of exercise MPI in predicting long-term outcome in a large cohort of patients with suspected or known CAD.

[Integrative concepts in modern forensic psychiatry].

PubMed

Dittmann, V

1996-03-01

Forensic psychiatric diagnosis and treatment should be guided by juridical goals and never be an end in itself. As a whole it is a public service concerning the interests of the perpetrators and the security of the entire population as well. Recent progress in forensic psychiatry is based on integral and comprehensive concepts. In the evaluation of criminal responsibility the new approaches of psychiatric diagnosis like operationalism, application of quantificating instruments and multiaxial diagnostic systems are of considerable importance. The ICD-10 classification of WHO can now be regarded as our reference system. To be acceptable for juridical purposes the evaluation of criminal responsibility has to be based on a systematical analysis of all important factors like actual situation of crime, environment, influence of psychotropic substances, psychosocial stressors, influences of biography and mental disorders. Assessment of prognosis is obligatory by law in many cases. These are juridical decisions, which have to be prepared by the psychiatric experts in the form of risk evaluations considering factors like development of delinquency, analysis of crime, kind of mental disturbance, insight of the perpetrator in his disorder, social competence, selfexamination of the perpetrator of his crime, possible therapies and social circumstances after discharge. Only an integral multiprofessional approach can be regarded as successful in the therapy of forensic high risk patients with paraphilas and aggressive impulse-control disorders. In Switzerland there is still a considerable lack of appropriate institutions for these patients. The vast amount of data accumulated during forensic psychiatric routine should be analysed in multicenter studies with scientific documentation systems to achieve progress in forensic risk calculation and efficiency of therapies.

Baseline integrated behavioural and biological assessment among most at-risk populations in six high-prevalence states of India: design and implementation challenges.

PubMed

Saidel, Tobi; Adhikary, Rajatashuvra; Mainkar, Mandar; Dale, Jayesh; Loo, Virginia; Rahman, Motiur; Ramesh, Banadakoppa M; Paranjape, Ramesh S

2008-12-01

This paper presents key methodological approaches and challenges in implementing and analysing the first round of the integrated biobehavioural assessment of most-at-risk populations, conducted in conjunction with evaluation of Avahan, the India AIDS initiative. The survey collected data on HIV risk behaviours, sexually transmitted infections and HIV prevalence in 29 districts in six high-prevalence states of India. Groups included female sex workers and clients, men who have sex with men, injecting drug users and truck drivers. Strategies for overcoming some challenges of the large-scale surveys among vulnerable populations, including sampling hidden populations, involvement of the communities targeted by the survey, laboratory and quality control in remote, non-clinic field settings, and data analysis and data use are presented. Satisfying the need for protocols, guidelines and tools that allowed for sufficient standardization, while being tailored enough to fit diverse local situations on such a large scale, with so many implementing partners, emerged as a major management challenge. A major lesson from the first round is the vital importance of investing upfront time in tailoring the sampling methods, data collection instruments, and analysis plan to match measurement objectives. Despite the challenges, the integrated biobehavioural assessment was a huge achievement, and was largely successful in providing previously unavailable information about the HIV situation among populations that are critical to the curtailment of HIV spread in India. Lessons from the first round will be used to evolve the second round into an exercise with increased evaluative capability for Avahan.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Contexts: Perceptions and Practice

PubMed Central

Rivera, Claudia

2014-01-01

This paper analyses the perceptions of disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners concerning the on-going integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) into their practices in urban contexts in Nicaragua. Understanding their perceptions is important as this will provide information on how this integration can be improved. Exploring the perceptions of practitioners in Nicaragua is important as the country has a long history of disasters, and practitioners have been developing the current DRR planning framework for more than a decade. The analysis is based on semi-structured interviews designed to collect information about practitioners’ understanding of: (a) CCA, (b) the current level of integration of CCA into DRR and urban planning, (c) the opportunities and constraints of this integration, and (d) the potential to adapt cities to climate change. The results revealed that practitioners’ perception is that the integration of CCA into their practice is at an early stage, and that they need to improve their understanding of CCA in terms of a development issue. Three main constraints on improved integration were identified: (a) a recognized lack of understanding of CCA, (b) insufficient guidance on how to integrate it, and (c) the limited opportunities to integrate it into urban planning due to a lack of instruments and capacity in this field. Three opportunities were also identified: (a) practitioners’ awareness of the need to integrate CCA into their practices, (b) the robust structure of the DRR planning framework in the country, which provides a suitable channel for facilitating integration, and (c) the fact that CCA is receiving more attention and financial and technical support from the international community. PMID:24475365

Integration of antenatal care services with health programmes in low- and middle-income countries: systematic review.

PubMed

de Jongh, Thyra E; Gurol-Urganci, Ipek; Allen, Elizabeth; Zhu, Nina Jiayue; Atun, Rifat

2016-06-01

Antenatal care (ANC) presents a potentially valuable platform for integrated delivery of additional health services for pregnant women-services that are vital to reduce the persistently high rates of maternal and neonatal mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, there is limited evidence on the impact of integrating health services with ANC to guide policy. This review assesses the impact of integration of postnatal and other health services with ANC on health services uptake and utilisation, health outcomes and user experience of care in LMICs. Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, POPLINE and Global Health were searched for studies that compared integrated models for delivery of postnatal and other health services with ANC to non-integrated models. Risk of bias of included studies was assessed using the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) criteria and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, depending on the study design. Due to high heterogeneity no meta-analysis could be conducted. Results are presented narratively. 12 studies were included in the review. Limited evidence, with moderate- to high-risk of bias, suggests that integrated service delivery results in improved uptake of essential health services for women, earlier initiation of treatment, and better health outcomes. Women also reported improved satisfaction with integrated services. The reported evidence is largely based on non-randomised studies with poor generalizability, and therefore offers very limited policy guidance. More rigorously conducted and geographically diverse studies are needed to better ascertain and quantify the health and economic benefits of integrating health services with ANC.

Integration of RAMS in LCC analysis for linear transport infrastructures. A case study for railways.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calle-Cordón, Álvaro; Jiménez-Redondo, Noemi; Morales-Gámiz, F. J.; García-Villena, F. A.; Garmabaki, Amir H. S.; Odelius, Johan

2017-09-01

Life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis is an economic technique used to assess the total costs associated with the lifetime of a system in order to support decision making in long term strategic planning. For complex systems, such as railway and road infrastructures, the cost of maintenance plays an important role in the LCC analysis. Costs associated with maintenance interventions can be more reliably estimated by integrating the probabilistic nature of the failures associated to these interventions in the LCC models. Reliability, Maintainability, Availability and Safety (RAMS) parameters describe the maintenance needs of an asset in a quantitative way by using probabilistic information extracted from registered maintenance activities. Therefore, the integration of RAMS in the LCC analysis allows obtaining reliable predictions of system maintenance costs and the dependencies of these costs with specific cost drivers through sensitivity analyses. This paper presents an innovative approach for a combined RAMS & LCC methodology for railway and road transport infrastructures being developed under the on-going H2020 project INFRALERT. Such RAMS & LCC analysis provides relevant probabilistic information to be used for condition and risk-based planning of maintenance activities as well as for decision support in long term strategic investment planning.

Augmented halal food traceability system: analysis and design using UML

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Usman, Y. V.; Fauzi, A. M.; Irawadi, T. T.; Djatna, T.

2018-04-01

Augmented halal food traceability is expanding the range of halal traceability in food supply chain where currently only available for tracing from the source of raw material to the industrial warehouse or inbound logistic. The halal traceability system must be developed in the integrated form that includes inbound and outbound logistics. The objective of this study was to develop a reliable initial model of integrated traceability system of halal food supply chain. The method was based on unified modeling language (UML) such as use case, sequence, and business process diagram. A goal programming model was formulated considering two objective functions which include (1) minimization of risk of halal traceability failures happened potentially during outbound logistics activities and (2) maximization of quality of halal product information. The result indicates the supply of material is the most important point to be considered in minimizing the risk of failure of halal food traceability system whereas no risk observed in manufacturing and distribution.

Prevalence of Salmonella on retail broiler chicken meat carcasses in Colombia.

PubMed

Donado-Godoy, Pilar; Clavijo, Viviana; León, Maribel; Tafur, Mc Allister; Gonzales, Sebastian; Hume, Michael; Alali, Walid; Walls, Isabel; Lo Fo Wong, Danilo M A; Doyle, M P

2012-06-01

A cross-sectional study was performed to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella on retail market chicken carcasses in Colombia. A total of 1,003 broiler chicken carcasses from 23 departments (one city per department) were collected via a stratified sampling method. Carcass rinses were tested for the presence of Salmonella by conventional culture methods. Salmonella strains were isolated from 27 % of the carcasses sampled. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine potential risk factors for Salmonella contamination associated with the chicken production system (conventional versus free-range), storage condition (chilled versus frozen), retail store type (supermarket, independent, and wet market), poultry company (integrated company versus nonintegrated company), and socioeconomic stratum. Chickens from a nonintegrated poultry company were associated with a significantly (P < 0.05) greater risk of Salmonella contamination (odds ratio, 2.0) than were chickens from an integrated company. Chilled chickens had a significantly (P < 0.05) higher risk of Salmonella contamination (odds ratio, 4.3) than did frozen chicken carcasses.

2014 SRP Integration Transcript

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, Susan

2014-01-01

HRP's mission is to reduce the risks to human health and performance during long-duration spaceflight. The HRP Integrated Research Plan (IRP) contains the research plans for the 32 risks that require research to characterize and mitigate. From its inception the "integrate" aspect of the IRP has denoted the integrated nature of risks to human health and performance. Even though each risk in the IRP has its own research plan and is tracked separately, the interrelated nature of health and performance requires that they be addressed in an integrative or holistic fashion so that the connectedness of physiological systems within the human body and the integrated response to spaceflight can be addressed. Common characteristics of the spaceflight environment include altered gravity, atmospheres, and light/dark cycles; space radiation; isolation; noise; and periods of high or low workload. Long-term exposure to this unique environment produces a suite of physiological effects such as stress; vision, neurocognitive, and anthropometric changes; circadian misalignment; fluid shifts; cardiovascular deconditioning; immune dysregulation; and altered nutritional requirements. Expanding cross-disciplinary integrative approaches that synthesize concepts or data from two or more disciplines would improve the identification and characterization risk factors, and enable the development of countermeasures relevant to multiple risks. Cross-disciplinary approaches might also help to illuminate problem areas that may arise when a countermeasure adversely impacts risks other than those which it was developed to mitigate, or to identify groupings of physiological changes that are likely to occur that may impact the overall risk posture. In 2014 HRP embarked on a pilot study that combined four SRPs (and 12 HRP risks) - Behavioral Health, Sensorimotor, Cardiovascular, and Bone/Muscle - specifically to discuss cross-disciplinary integration. The points outlined below were suggested to seed the discussion, within the bounding constraint that research plans must be feasible and relevant to the HRP mission. While these were suggested starting points, the overall guiding principle was to allow free discussion from panel members on any aspect of integrated research that they felt was important, Existing cross-disciplinary integration as documented in the IRP (HRR), Existing or needed integration already identified by HRP, but not yet well defined within the IRP, Areas of integration that are missing.

Integrating geo-referenced multiscale and multidisciplinary data for the management of biodiversity in livestock genetic resources.

PubMed

Joost, S; Colli, L; Baret, P V; Garcia, J F; Boettcher, P J; Tixier-Boichard, M; Ajmone-Marsan, P

2010-05-01

In livestock genetic resource conservation, decision making about conservation priorities is based on the simultaneous analysis of several different criteria that may contribute to long-term sustainable breeding conditions, such as genetic and demographic characteristics, environmental conditions, and role of the breed in the local or regional economy. Here we address methods to integrate different data sets and highlight problems related to interdisciplinary comparisons. Data integration is based on the use of geographic coordinates and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In addition to technical problems related to projection systems, GIS have to face the challenging issue of the non homogeneous scale of their data sets. We give examples of the successful use of GIS for data integration and examine the risk of obtaining biased results when integrating datasets that have been captured at different scales.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Tutorial

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. L. Smith; S. T. Beck; S. T. Wood

2008-08-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of computer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs). This volume is the tutorial manual for the SAPHIRE system. In this document, a series of lessons are provided that guide the user through basic steps common to most analyses preformed with SAPHIRE. The tutorial is divided into two major sections covering both basic and advanced features. The section covering basic topics contains lessons that lead the reader through development of a probabilistic hypothetical problem involving a vehicle accident, highlighting the program’smore » most fundamental features. The advanced features section contains additional lessons that expand on fundamental analysis features of SAPHIRE and provide insights into more complex analysis techniques. Together, these two elements provide an overview into the operation and capabilities of the SAPHIRE software.« less

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites part 2: ranking of potentially contaminated sites.

PubMed

Pizzol, Lisa; Critto, Andrea; Agostini, Paola; Marcomini, Antonio

2011-11-01

Environmental risks are traditionally assessed and presented in non spatial ways although the heterogeneity of the contaminants spatial distributions, the spatial positions and relations between receptors and stressors, as well as the spatial distribution of the variables involved in the risk assessment, strongly influence exposure estimations and hence risks. Taking into account spatial variability is increasingly being recognized as a further and essential step in sound exposure and risk assessment. To address this issue an innovative methodology which integrates spatial analysis and a relative risk approach was developed. The purpose of this methodology is to prioritize sites at regional scale where a preliminary site investigation may be required. The methodology aimed at supporting the inventory of contaminated sites was implemented within the spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of DEgraded land, SYRIADE, and was applied to the case-study of the Upper Silesia region (Poland). The developed methodology and tool are both flexible and easy to adapt to different regional contexts, allowing the user to introduce the regional relevant parameters identified on the basis of user expertise and regional data availability. Moreover, the used GIS functionalities, integrated with mathematical approaches, allow to take into consideration, all at once, the multiplicity of sources and impacted receptors within the region of concern, to assess the risks posed by all contaminated sites in the region and, finally, to provide a risk-based ranking of the potentially contaminated sites. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Calkin, Dave E

2011-08-01

Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and resources at risk, and an incomplete scientific understanding of ecological response to fire, of fire behavior response to treatments, and of spatiotemporal dynamics involving disturbance regimes and climate change. This work attempts to systematically align sources of uncertainty with the most appropriate decision support methodologies, in order to facilitate cost-effective, risk-based wildfire planning efforts. We review the state of wildfire risk assessment and management, with a specific focus on uncertainties challenging implementation of integrated risk assessments that consider a suite of human and ecological values. Recent advances in wildfire simulation and geospatial mapping of highly valued resources have enabled robust risk-based analyses to inform planning across a variety of scales, although improvements are needed in fire behavior and ignition occurrence models. A key remaining challenge is a better characterization of non-market resources at risk, both in terms of their response to fire and how society values those resources. Our findings echo earlier literature identifying wildfire effects analysis and value uncertainty as the primary challenges to integrated wildfire risk assessment and wildfire management. We stress the importance of identifying and characterizing uncertainties in order to better quantify and manage them. Leveraging the most appropriate decision support tools can facilitate wildfire risk assessment and ideally improve decision-making. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

2012-01-01

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coalmore » electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.« less

Direct oral anticoagulants for extended thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients: meta-analysis and risk/benefit assessment.

PubMed

Al Yami, Majed S; Kurdi, Sawsan; Abraham, Ivo

2018-01-01

Standard-duration (7-10 days) thromboprophylaxis with low molecular weight heparin, low dose unfractionated heparin, or fondaparinux in hospitalized medically ill patients is associated with ~50% reduction in venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. However, these patients remain at high risk for VTE post-discharge. The direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) apixaban, rivaroxaban and betrixaban have been evaluated for extended-duration (30-42 days) thromboprophylaxis in this population. We review the efficacy and safety results from the 3 pivotal trials of extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients. We performed a meta-analysis of these pivotal trials focusing on 6 VTE (efficacy) and three bleeding outcomes (safety). These results were integrated into a quantitative risk/benefit assessment. The trials evaluating extended-duration DOAC thromboprophylaxis in medically ill patients failed to establish clear efficacy and/or safety signals for each agent. Our meta-analysis shows that, as a class, DOACs have selective and partial extended-duration prophylactic activity in preventing VTE events. However, this is associated with a marked increase in the risk of various bleeding events. The risk/benefit analyses fail to show a consistent net clinical benefit of extended-duration DOAC prophylaxis in medically ill patients. At this time, the evidence of safe and effective extended-duration thromboprophylaxis with DOACs in this population is inconclusive.

Bridging the Divide between Safety and Risk Management for your Project or Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutomski, Mike

2005-01-01

This presentation will bridge the divide between these separate but overlapping disciplines and help explain how to use Risk Management as an effective management decision support tool that includes safety. Risk Management is an over arching communication tool used by management to prioritize and effectively mitigate potential problems before they concur. Risk Management encompasses every kind of potential problem that can occur on a program or project. Some of these are safety issues such as hazards that have a specific likelihood and consequence that need to be controlled and included to show an integrated picture of accepted) mitigated, and residual risk. Integrating safety and other assurance disciplines is paramount to accurately representing a program s or projects risk posture. Risk is made up of several components such as technical) cost, schedule, or supportability. Safety should also be a consideration for every risk. The safety component can also have an impact on the technical, cost, and schedule aspect of a given risk. The current formats used for communication of safety and risk issues are not consistent or integrated. The presentation will explore the history of these disciplines, current work to integrate them, and suggestions for integration for the future.

Integrating emerging earth science technologies into disaster risk management: an enterprise architecture approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, J. D.; Hao, W.; Chettri, S. R.

2014-12-01

Disaster risk management has grown to rely on earth observations, multi-source data analysis, numerical modeling, and interagency information sharing. The practice and outcomes of disaster risk management will likely undergo further change as several emerging earth science technologies come of age: mobile devices; location-based services; ubiquitous sensors; drones; small satellites; satellite direct readout; Big Data analytics; cloud computing; Web services for predictive modeling, semantic reconciliation, and collaboration; and many others. Integrating these new technologies well requires developing and adapting them to meet current needs; but also rethinking current practice to draw on new capabilities to reach additional objectives. This requires a holistic view of the disaster risk management enterprise and of the analytical or operational capabilities afforded by these technologies. One helpful tool for this assessment, the GEOSS Architecture for the Use of Remote Sensing Products in Disaster Management and Risk Assessment (Evans & Moe, 2013), considers all phases of the disaster risk management lifecycle for a comprehensive set of natural hazard types, and outlines common clusters of activities and their use of information and computation resources. We are using these architectural views, together with insights from current practice, to highlight effective, interrelated roles for emerging earth science technologies in disaster risk management. These roles may be helpful in creating roadmaps for research and development investment at national and international levels.

Personalized Risk Assessment in Never, Light, and Heavy Smokers in a prospective cohort in Taiwan.

PubMed

Wu, Xifeng; Wen, Chi Pang; Ye, Yuanqing; Tsai, MinKwang; Wen, Christopher; Roth, Jack A; Pu, Xia; Chow, Wong-Ho; Huff, Chad; Cunningham, Sonia; Huang, Maosheng; Wu, Shuanbei; Tsao, Chwen Keng; Gu, Jian; Lippman, Scott M

2016-11-02

The objective of this study was to develop markedly improved risk prediction models for lung cancer using a prospective cohort of 395,875 participants in Taiwan. Discriminatory accuracy was measured by generation of receiver operator curves and estimation of area under the curve (AUC). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, age, gender, smoking pack-years, family history of lung cancer, personal cancer history, BMI, lung function test, and serum biomarkers such as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), bilirubin, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and c-reactive protein (CRP) were identified and included in an integrative risk prediction model. The AUC in overall population was 0.851 (95% CI = 0.840-0.862), with never smokers 0.806 (95% CI = 0.790-0.819), light smokers 0.847 (95% CI = 0.824-0.871), and heavy smokers 0.732 (95% CI = 0.708-0.752). By integrating risk factors such as family history of lung cancer, CEA and AFP for light smokers, and lung function test (Maximum Mid-Expiratory Flow, MMEF 25-75% ), AFP and CEA for never smokers, light and never smokers with cancer risks as high as those within heavy smokers could be identified. The risk model for heavy smokers can allow us to stratify heavy smokers into subgroups with distinct risks, which, if applied to low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening, may greatly reduce false positives.

Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice

PubMed Central

Hansen, James W

2005-01-01

Interest in integrating crop simulation models with dynamic seasonal climate forecast models is expanding in response to a perceived opportunity to add value to seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture. Integrated modelling may help to address some obstacles to effective agricultural use of climate information. First, modelling can address the mismatch between farmers' needs and available operational forecasts. Probabilistic crop yield forecasts are directly relevant to farmers' livelihood decisions and, at a different scale, to early warning and market applications. Second, credible ex ante evidence of livelihood benefits, using integrated climate–crop–economic modelling in a value-of-information framework, may assist in the challenge of obtaining institutional, financial and political support; and inform targeting for greatest benefit. Third, integrated modelling can reduce the risk and learning time associated with adaptation and adoption, and related uncertainty on the part of advisors and advocates. It can provide insights to advisors, and enhance site-specific interpretation of recommendations when driven by spatial data. Model-based ‘discussion support systems’ contribute to learning and farmer–researcher dialogue. Integrated climate–crop modelling may play a genuine, but limited role in efforts to support climate risk management in agriculture, but only if they are used appropriately, with understanding of their capabilities and limitations, and with cautious evaluation of model predictions and of the insights that arises from model-based decision analysis. PMID:16433092

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

PubMed

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad

2015-09-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to themore » design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.« less

Personality Predicts Mortality Risk: An Integrative Data Analysis of 15 International Longitudinal Studies.

PubMed

Graham, Eileen K; Rutsohn, Joshua P; Turiano, Nicholas A; Bendayan, Rebecca; Batterham, Philip J; Gerstorf, Denis; Katz, Mindy J; Reynolds, Chandra A; Sharp, Emily S; Yoneda, Tomiko B; Bastarache, Emily D; Elleman, Lorien G; Zelinski, Elizabeth M; Johansson, Boo; Kuh, Diana; Barnes, Lisa L; Bennett, David A; Deeg, Dorly J H; Lipton, Richard B; Pedersen, Nancy L; Piccinin, Andrea M; Spiro, Avron; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Willis, Sherry L; Schaie, K Warner; Roan, Carol; Herd, Pamela; Hofer, Scott M; Mroczek, Daniel K

2017-10-01

This study examined the Big Five personality traits as predictors of mortality risk, and smoking as a mediator of that association. Replication was built into the fabric of our design: we used a Coordinated Analysis with 15 international datasets, representing 44,094 participants. We found that high neuroticism and low conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness were consistent predictors of mortality across studies. Smoking had a small mediating effect for neuroticism. Country and baseline age explained variation in effects: studies with older baseline age showed a pattern of protective effects (HR<1.00) for openness, and U.S. studies showed a pattern of protective effects for extraversion. This study demonstrated coordinated analysis as a powerful approach to enhance replicability and reproducibility, especially for aging-related longitudinal research.

Integrated Earthquake Risk Assessment in the Kathmandu Valley - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaper, Julia; Anhorn, Johannes; Khazai, Bijan; Nüsser, Marcus

2013-04-01

Rapid urban growth is a process which can be observed in cities worldwide. Managing these growing urban areas has become a major challenge for both governing bodies and citizens. Situated not only in a highly earthquake and landslide-prone area, but comprising also the cultural and political capital of Nepal, the fast expanding Kathmandu Valley in the Himalayan region is of particular interest. Vulnerability assessment has been an important tool for spatial planning in this already densely populated area. The magnitude 8.4 earthquake of Bihar in 1934 cost 8600 Nepalis their lives, destroyed 20% of the Kathmandu building stock and heavily damaged another 40%. Since then, Kathmandu has grown into a hub with over a million inhabitants. Rapid infrastructure and population growth aggravate the vulnerability conditions, particularly in the core area of Metropolitan Kathmandu. We propose an integrative framework for vulnerability and risk in Kathmandu Valley. In order to move towards a more systemic and integrated approach, we focus on interactions between natural hazards, physically engineered systems and society. High resolution satellite images are used to identify structural vulnerability of the building stock within the study area. Using object-based image analysis, the spatial dynamics of urban growth are assessed and validated using field data. Complementing this is the analysis of socio-economic attributes gained from databases and field surveys. An indicator-based vulnerability and resilience index will be operationalized using multi-attribute value theory and statistical methods such as principal component analysis. The results allow for a socio-economic comparison of places and their relative potential for harm and loss. The objective in this task is to better understand the interactions between nature and society, engineered systems and built environments through the development of an interdisciplinary framework on systemic seismic risk and vulnerability. Data from incidences of large-scale Himalayan earthquake disasters will form the basis for a multi-temporal analysis. By analyzing different time slots we identify development paths and building integrity shifts in the light of dynamic urbanization processes. Hereby, future trends and spatial scenarios can be developed. We suggest a goal oriented indicator evaluation process to compare different development scenarios. This serves as an orientation for spatial planning strategies for local and international stakeholders.

75 FR 69064 - Draft Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk... of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... ``Toxicological Review of Hexavalent Chromium: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk...

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

Literature review of baseline study for risk analysis - the landfill leachate case.

PubMed

Butt, T E; Gouda, H M; Baloch, M I; Paul, P; Javadi, A A; Alam, A

2014-02-01

There is growing awareness and public concern about environmental impacts of waste management and disposal. Environmental policy instruments have been strengthened and associated governmental programmes have increased in recent years, resulting in high level strategies for waste management. Risk assessment is now an essential tool in the prioritisation of environmental and human health protection. However, regulators need to compare the full range of risks on a sound and consistent basis. Comparing risks from such diverse sources poses a significant challenge, and traditional hazard and risk assessments are no longer sufficient. Consideration now needs to be given to a much wider range of factors if risk assessment is to be used as an aid to more integrated decision-making process. For this purpose, baseline study - the foundation of risk assessment - can play a crucial role. To date limited research has been conducted on the need, parameters, requirements, and constituents of baseline study particularly in the context of how, why, and what information is to be collated in order to render risk assessments more appropriately integrated and complete. To establish the 'state-of-the-art' of baseline study, this paper comprehensively reviews the literature regarding environmental risk assessment in general terms, and then proceeds to review work that is specifically related to landfills and landfill leachate, thereby identifying knowledge gaps and shortfall areas. This review concludes that a holistic baseline study procedure for waste disposal sites, which risk assessors could use for carrying out risk analyses specifically for landfill leachate, does not as yet exist. © 2013.

Large Scale System Safety Integration for Human Rated Space Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massie, Michael J.

2005-12-01

Since the 1960s man has searched for ways to establish a human presence in space. Unfortunately, the development and operation of human spaceflight vehicles carry significant safety risks that are not always well understood. As a result, the countries with human space programs have felt the pain of loss of lives in the attempt to develop human space travel systems. Integrated System Safety is a process developed through years of experience (since before Apollo and Soyuz) as a way to assess risks involved in space travel and prevent such losses. The intent of Integrated System Safety is to take a look at an entire program and put together all the pieces in such a way that the risks can be identified, understood and dispositioned by program management. This process has many inherent challenges and they need to be explored, understood and addressed.In order to prepare truly integrated analysis safety professionals must gain a level of technical understanding of all of the project's pieces and how they interact. Next, they must find a way to present the analysis so the customer can understand the risks and make decisions about managing them. However, every organization in a large-scale project can have different ideas about what is or is not a hazard, what is or is not an appropriate hazard control, and what is or is not adequate hazard control verification. NASA provides some direction on these topics, but interpretations of those instructions can vary widely.Even more challenging is the fact that every individual/organization involved in a project has different levels of risk tolerance. When the discrete hazard controls of the contracts and agreements cannot be met, additional risk must be accepted. However, when one has left the arena of compliance with the known rules, there can be no longer be specific ground rules on which to base a decision as to what is acceptable and what is not. The integrator must find common grounds between all parties to achieve concurrence on these non-compliant conditionsAnother area of challenge lies in determining the credibility of a proposed hazard. For example, NASA's definition of a credible hazard is accurate but does not provide specific guidance about contractors declaring a hazard "not credible" and ceasing working on that item.Unfortunately, this has the side effect of taking valuable resources from high-risk areas and using them to investigate whether these extremely low risk items have the potential to become worse than they appear.In order to deal with these types of issues, there must exist the concept of a "Safe State" and it must be used as a building block to help address many of the technical and social challenges in working safety and risk management. This "Safe State" must serve as the foundation for building the cultural modifications needed to assure that safety issues are properly identified, heard, and dispositioned by our space program management.As the space program and the countries involved in it move forward in development of human rated spacecraft, they must learn from the recent Columbia accident and establish new/modified basis for safety risk decisions. Those involved must also become more cognizant of the diversity in safety approaches and agree on how to deal with them. Most of all, those involved must never forget that while the System Safety duty maybe difficult, their efforts help to preserve the lives of space crews and their families.

Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

PubMed Central

Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

2016-01-01

Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require prospective evaluation. PMID:27084274

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

The benefits of integrating cost-benefit analysis and risk assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, K.; Clarke-Whistler, K.

1995-12-31

It has increasingly been recognized that knowledge of risks in the absence of benefits and costs cannot dictate appropriate public policy choices. Recent evidence of this recognition includes the proposed EPA Risk Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis Act of 1995, a number of legislative changes in Canada and the US, and the increasing demand for field studies combining measures of impacts, risks, costs and benefits. Failure to consider relative environmental and human health risks, benefits, and costs in making public policy decisions has resulted in allocating scarce resources away from areas offering the highest levels of risk reduction and improvements inmore » health and safety. The authors discuss the implications of not taking costs and benefits into account in addressing environmental risks, drawing on examples from both Canada and the US. The authors also present the results of their recent field work demonstrating the advantages of considering costs and benefits in making public policy and site remediation decisions, including a study on the benefits and costs of prevention, remediation and monitoring techniques applied to groundwater contamination; the benefits and costs of banning the use of chlorine; and the benefits and costs of Canada`s concept of disposing of high-level nuclear waste. The authors conclude that a properly conducted Cost-Benefit Analysis can provide critical input to a Risk Assessment and can ensure that risk management decisions are efficient, cost-effective and maximize improvement to environmental and human health.« less

Process-based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Brijendra; Torres, Felix; Nesman, Miles; Reynolds, John

2003-01-01

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

The Relative Importance of the Vadose Zone in Multimedia Risk Assessment Modeling Applied at a National Scale: An Analysis of Benzene Using 3MRA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babendreier, J. E.

2002-05-01

Evaluating uncertainty and parameter sensitivity in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-media constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. The challenge of examining ever more complex, integrated, higher-order models is a formidable one, particularly in regulatory settings applied on a national scale. Quantitative assessment of uncertainty and sensitivity within integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a systematic, comparative approach coupled with sufficient computational power. The Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment Model (3MRA) is an important code being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in site-scale risk assessment (e.g. hazardous waste management facilities). The model currently entails over 700 variables, 185 of which are explicitly stochastic. The 3MRA can start with a chemical concentration in a waste management unit (WMU). It estimates the release and transport of the chemical throughout the environment, and predicts associated exposure and risk. The 3MRA simulates multimedia (air, water, soil, sediments), pollutant fate and transport, multipathway exposure routes (food ingestion, water ingestion, soil ingestion, air inhalation, etc.), multireceptor exposures (resident, gardener, farmer, fisher, ecological habitats and populations), and resulting risk (human cancer and non-cancer effects, ecological population and community effects). The 3MRA collates the output for an overall national risk assessment, offering a probabilistic strategy as a basis for regulatory decisions. To facilitate model execution of 3MRA for purposes of conducting uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, a PC-based supercomputer cluster was constructed. Design of SuperMUSE, a 125 GHz Windows-based Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation is described, along with the conceptual layout of an accompanying java-based paralleling software toolset. Preliminary work is also reported for a scenario involving Benzene disposal that describes the relative importance of the vadose zone in driving risk levels for ecological receptors and human health. Incorporating landfills, waste piles, aerated tanks, surface impoundments, and land application units, the site-based data used in the analysis included 201 national facilities representing 419 site-WMU combinations.

Weighted Fuzzy Risk Priority Number Evaluation of Turbine and Compressor Blades Considering Failure Mode Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Luping; Li, Yan-Feng; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yang, Yuan-Jian; Huang, Hong-Zhong

2014-06-01

Failure mode, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) and Fault tree analysis (FTA) are powerful tools to evaluate reliability of systems. Although single failure mode issue can be efficiently addressed by traditional FMECA, multiple failure modes and component correlations in complex systems cannot be effectively evaluated. In addition, correlated variables and parameters are often assumed to be precisely known in quantitative analysis. In fact, due to the lack of information, epistemic uncertainty commonly exists in engineering design. To solve these problems, the advantages of FMECA, FTA, fuzzy theory, and Copula theory are integrated into a unified hybrid method called fuzzy probability weighted geometric mean (FPWGM) risk priority number (RPN) method. The epistemic uncertainty of risk variables and parameters are characterized by fuzzy number to obtain fuzzy weighted geometric mean (FWGM) RPN for single failure mode. Multiple failure modes are connected using minimum cut sets (MCS), and Boolean logic is used to combine fuzzy risk priority number (FRPN) of each MCS. Moreover, Copula theory is applied to analyze the correlation of multiple failure modes in order to derive the failure probabilities of each MCS. Compared to the case where dependency among multiple failure modes is not considered, the Copula modeling approach eliminates the error of reliability analysis. Furthermore, for purpose of quantitative analysis, probabilities importance weight from failure probabilities are assigned to FWGM RPN to reassess the risk priority, which generalize the definition of probability weight and FRPN, resulting in a more accurate estimation than that of the traditional models. Finally, a basic fatigue analysis case drawn from turbine and compressor blades in aeroengine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the presented method. The result provides some important insights on fatigue reliability analysis and risk priority assessment of structural system under failure correlations.

Amplitude Integrated Electroencephalography Compared With Conventional Video EEG for Neonatal Seizure Detection: A Diagnostic Accuracy Study.

PubMed

Rakshasbhuvankar, Abhijeet; Rao, Shripada; Palumbo, Linda; Ghosh, Soumya; Nagarajan, Lakshmi

2017-08-01

This diagnostic accuracy study compared the accuracy of seizure detection by amplitude-integrated electroencephalography with the criterion standard conventional video EEG in term and near-term infants at risk of seizures. Simultaneous recording of amplitude-integrated EEG (2-channel amplitude-integrated EEG with raw trace) and video EEG was done for 24 hours for each infant. Amplitude-integrated EEG was interpreted by a neonatologist; video EEG was interpreted by a neurologist independently. Thirty-five infants were included in the analysis. In the 7 infants with seizures on video EEG, there were 169 seizure episodes on video EEG, of which only 57 were identified by amplitude-integrated EEG. Amplitude-integrated EEG had a sensitivity of 33.7% for individual seizure detection. Amplitude-integrated EEG had an 86% sensitivity for detection of babies with seizures; however, it was nonspecific, in that 50% of infants with seizures detected by amplitude-integrated EEG did not have true seizures by video EEG. In conclusion, our study suggests that amplitude-integrated EEG is a poor screening tool for neonatal seizures.

Scaling Analysis Techniques to Establish Experimental Infrastructure for Component, Subsystem, and Integrated System Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sabharwall, Piyush; O'Brien, James E.; McKellar, Michael G.

2015-03-01

Hybrid energy system research has the potential to expand the application for nuclear reactor technology beyond electricity. The purpose of this research is to reduce both technical and economic risks associated with energy systems of the future. Nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) mitigate the variability of renewable energy sources, provide opportunities to produce revenue from different product streams, and avoid capital inefficiencies by matching electrical output to demand by using excess generation capacity for other purposes when it is available. An essential step in the commercialization and deployment of this advanced technology is scaled testing to demonstrate integrated dynamic performancemore » of advanced systems and components when risks cannot be mitigated adequately by analysis or simulation. Further testing in a prototypical environment is needed for validation and higher confidence. This research supports the development of advanced nuclear reactor technology and NHES, and their adaptation to commercial industrial applications that will potentially advance U.S. energy security, economy, and reliability and further reduce carbon emissions. Experimental infrastructure development for testing and feasibility studies of coupled systems can similarly support other projects having similar developmental needs and can generate data required for validation of models in thermal energy storage and transport, energy, and conversion process development. Experiments performed in the Systems Integration Laboratory will acquire performance data, identify scalability issues, and quantify technology gaps and needs for various hybrid or other energy systems. This report discusses detailed scaling (component and integrated system) and heat transfer figures of merit that will establish the experimental infrastructure for component, subsystem, and integrated system testing to advance the technology readiness of components and systems to the level required for commercial application and demonstration under NHES.« less

Towards the integration, annotation and association of historical microarray experiments with RNA-seq.

PubMed

Chavan, Shweta S; Bauer, Michael A; Peterson, Erich A; Heuck, Christoph J; Johann, Donald J

2013-01-01

Transcriptome analysis by microarrays has produced important advances in biomedicine. For instance in multiple myeloma (MM), microarray approaches led to the development of an effective disease subtyping via cluster assignment, and a 70 gene risk score. Both enabled an improved molecular understanding of MM, and have provided prognostic information for the purposes of clinical management. Many researchers are now transitioning to Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) approaches and RNA-seq in particular, due to its discovery-based nature, improved sensitivity, and dynamic range. Additionally, RNA-seq allows for the analysis of gene isoforms, splice variants, and novel gene fusions. Given the voluminous amounts of historical microarray data, there is now a need to associate and integrate microarray and RNA-seq data via advanced bioinformatic approaches. Custom software was developed following a model-view-controller (MVC) approach to integrate Affymetrix probe set-IDs, and gene annotation information from a variety of sources. The tool/approach employs an assortment of strategies to integrate, cross reference, and associate microarray and RNA-seq datasets. Output from a variety of transcriptome reconstruction and quantitation tools (e.g., Cufflinks) can be directly integrated, and/or associated with Affymetrix probe set data, as well as necessary gene identifiers and/or symbols from a diversity of sources. Strategies are employed to maximize the annotation and cross referencing process. Custom gene sets (e.g., MM 70 risk score (GEP-70)) can be specified, and the tool can be directly assimilated into an RNA-seq pipeline. A novel bioinformatic approach to aid in the facilitation of both annotation and association of historic microarray data, in conjunction with richer RNA-seq data, is now assisting with the study of MM cancer biology.

CAS-viewer: web-based tool for splicing-guided integrative analysis of multi-omics cancer data.

PubMed

Han, Seonggyun; Kim, Dongwook; Kim, Youngjun; Choi, Kanghoon; Miller, Jason E; Kim, Dokyoon; Lee, Younghee

2018-04-20

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project is a public resource that provides transcriptomic, DNA sequence, methylation, and clinical data for 33 cancer types. Transforming the large size and high complexity of TCGA cancer genome data into integrated knowledge can be useful to promote cancer research. Alternative splicing (AS) is a key regulatory mechanism of genes in human cancer development and in the interaction with epigenetic factors. Therefore, AS-guided integration of existing TCGA data sets will make it easier to gain insight into the genetic architecture of cancer risk and related outcomes. There are already existing tools analyzing and visualizing alternative mRNA splicing patterns for large-scale RNA-seq experiments. However, these existing web-based tools are limited to the analysis of individual TCGA data sets at a time, such as only transcriptomic information. We implemented CAS-viewer (integrative analysis of Cancer genome data based on Alternative Splicing), a web-based tool leveraging multi-cancer omics data from TCGA. It illustrates alternative mRNA splicing patterns along with methylation, miRNAs, and SNPs, and then provides an analysis tool to link differential transcript expression ratio to methylation, miRNA, and splicing regulatory elements for 33 cancer types. Moreover, one can analyze AS patterns with clinical data to identify potential transcripts associated with different survival outcome for each cancer. CAS-viewer is a web-based application for transcript isoform-driven integration of multi-omics data in multiple cancer types and will aid in the visualization and possible discovery of biomarkers for cancer by integrating multi-omics data from TCGA.

Barriers and facilitators of suicide risk assessment in emergency departments: a qualitative study of provider perspectives.

PubMed

Petrik, Megan L; Gutierrez, Peter M; Berlin, Jon S; Saunders, Stephen M

2015-01-01

To understand emergency department (ED) providers' perspectives regarding the barriers and facilitators of suicide risk assessment and to use these perspectives to inform recommendations for best practices in ED suicide risk assessment. Ninety-two ED providers from two hospital systems in a Midwestern state responded to open-ended questions via an online survey that assessed their perspectives on the barriers and facilitators to assess suicide risk as well as their preferred assessment methods. Responses were analyzed using an inductive thematic analysis approach. Qualitative analysis yielded six themes that impact suicide risk assessment. Time, privacy, collaboration and consultation with other professionals and integration of a standard screening protocol in routine care exemplified environmental and systemic themes. Patient engagement/participation in assessment and providers' approach to communicating with patients and other providers also impacted the effectiveness of suicide risk assessment efforts. The findings inform feasible suicide risk assessment practices in EDs. Appropriately utilizing a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach to assess suicide-related concerns appears to be a promising approach to ameliorate the burden placed on ED providers and facilitate optimal patient care. Recommendations for clinical care, education, quality improvement and research are offered. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

2004-01-01

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

2011-12-01

Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life-Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Scott, Ryan P; Cullen, Alison C; Fox-Lent, Cate; Linkov, Igor

2016-10-01

In emergent photovoltaics, nanoscale materials hold promise for optimizing device characteristics; however, the related impacts remain uncertain, resulting in challenges to decisions on strategic investment in technology innovation. We integrate multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) results (LCA-MCDA) as a method of incorporating values of a hypothetical federal acquisition manager into the assessment of risks and benefits of emerging photovoltaic materials. Specifically, we compare adoption of copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) devices with molybdenum back contacts to alternative devices employing graphite or graphene instead of molybdenum. LCA impact results are interpreted alongside benefits of substitution including cost reductions and performance improvements through application of multi-attribute utility theory. To assess the role of uncertainty we apply Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. We find that graphene or graphite back contacts outperform molybdenum under most scenarios and assumptions. The use of decision analysis clarifies potential advantages of adopting graphite as a back contact while emphasizing the importance of mitigating conventional impacts of graphene production processes if graphene is used in emerging CZTS devices. Our research further demonstrates that a combination of LCA and MCDA increases the usability of LCA in assessing product sustainability. In particular, this approach identifies the most influential assumptions and data gaps in the analysis and the areas in which either engineering controls or further data collection may be necessary. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Schistosomiasis and water resources development: systematic review, meta-analysis, and estimates of people at risk.

PubMed

Steinmann, Peter; Keiser, Jennifer; Bos, Robert; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg

2006-07-01

An estimated 779 million people are at risk of schistosomiasis, of whom 106 million (13.6%) live in irrigation schemes or in close proximity to large dam reservoirs. We identified 58 studies that examined the relation between water resources development projects and schistosomiasis, primarily in African settings. We present a systematic literature review and meta-analysis with the following objectives: (1) to update at-risk populations of schistosomiasis and number of people infected in endemic countries, and (2) to quantify the risk of water resources development and management on schistosomiasis. Using 35 datasets from 24 African studies, our meta-analysis showed pooled random risk ratios of 2.4 and 2.6 for urinary and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively, among people living adjacent to dam reservoirs. The risk ratio estimate for studies evaluating the effect of irrigation on urinary schistosomiasis was in the range 0.02-7.3 (summary estimate 1.1) and that on intestinal schistosomiasis in the range 0.49-23.0 (summary estimate 4.7). Geographic stratification showed important spatial differences, idiosyncratic to the type of water resources development. We conclude that the development and management of water resources is an important risk factor for schistosomiasis, and hence strategies to mitigate negative effects should become integral parts in the planning, implementation, and operation of future water projects.

A prototype web-GIS application for risk analysis of natural hazards in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Gerber, Christian; Lévy, Sebastien

2016-04-01

Following changes in the system of Swiss subsidy in January 2008, the Swiss cantons and the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) were forced to prioritize different natural hazard protection projects based on their cost-effectiveness, as a response to limited financial resources (Bründl et al., 2009). For this purpose, applications such as EconoMe (OFEV, 2016) and Valdorisk (DGE, 2016) were developed for risk evaluation and prioritization of mitigation projects. These tools serve as a useful decision-making instrument to the community of practitioners and responsible authorities for natural hazard risk management in Switzerland. However, there are several aspects which could be improved, in particular, the integration and visualization of spatial information interactively through a web-GIS interface for better risk planning and evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we aim to develop an interactive web-GIS application based on the risk concepts applied in Switzerland. The purpose of this tool is to provide a rapid evaluation of risk before and after protection measures, and to test the efficiency of measures by using a simplified cost-benefit analysis within the context of different protection projects. This application allows to integrate different layers which are necessary to calculate risk, in particular, hazard intensity (vector) maps for different scenarios (such as 30, 100 and 300 years of return periods based on Swiss guidelines), exposed objects (such as buildings) and vulnerability information of these objects. Based on provided information and additional parameters, risk is calculated automatically and results are visualized within the web-GIS interface of the application. The users can modify these input information and parameters to create different risk scenarios. Based on the resultant risk scenarios, the users can propose and visualize (preliminary) risk reduction measures before realizing the actual design and dimensions of such protective measures in the area. After designing measures, the users can re-calculate risk by updating hazard intensity and object layers. This is achieved by manual editing of shape (vector) layers in the web-GIS interface interactively. Within the application, a cost-benefit analysis tool is also integrated to support the decision-making process for the selection of different protection measures. Finally, the resultant risk information (vector layers and data) can be exported in the form of shapefiles and excel sheets. A prototype application is realized using open-source geospatial software and technologies. Boundless framework with its client-side SDK environment is applied for the rapid prototyping. Free and open source components such as PostGIS spatial database, GeoServer and GeoWebCache, GeoExt and OpenLayers are used for the development of the platform. This developed prototype is demonstrated with a case study area located in Les Diablerets, Switzerland. This research work is carried out within a project funded by the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland. References: Bründl, M., Romang, H. E., Bischof, N., and Rheinberger, C. M.: The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 801-813, 2009. DGE: Valdorisk - Direction Générale de l'Environnement, www.vd.ch, accessed 9 January 2016, 2016. OFEV: EconoMe - Office fédéral de l'environnement, www.econome.admin.ch, accessed 9 January 2016, 2016.

graph-GPA: A graphical model for prioritizing GWAS results and investigating pleiotropic architecture.

PubMed

Chung, Dongjun; Kim, Hang J; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-02-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified tens of thousands of genetic variants associated with hundreds of phenotypes and diseases, which have provided clinical and medical benefits to patients with novel biomarkers and therapeutic targets. However, identification of risk variants associated with complex diseases remains challenging as they are often affected by many genetic variants with small or moderate effects. There has been accumulating evidence suggesting that different complex traits share common risk basis, namely pleiotropy. Recently, several statistical methods have been developed to improve statistical power to identify risk variants for complex traits through a joint analysis of multiple GWAS datasets by leveraging pleiotropy. While these methods were shown to improve statistical power for association mapping compared to separate analyses, they are still limited in the number of phenotypes that can be integrated. In order to address this challenge, in this paper, we propose a novel statistical framework, graph-GPA, to integrate a large number of GWAS datasets for multiple phenotypes using a hidden Markov random field approach. Application of graph-GPA to a joint analysis of GWAS datasets for 12 phenotypes shows that graph-GPA improves statistical power to identify risk variants compared to statistical methods based on smaller number of GWAS datasets. In addition, graph-GPA also promotes better understanding of genetic mechanisms shared among phenotypes, which can potentially be useful for the development of improved diagnosis and therapeutics. The R implementation of graph-GPA is currently available at https://dongjunchung.github.io/GGPA/.

Exposure and Vulnerability Geospatial Analysis Using Earth Observation Data in the City of Liege, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenne, N.; Beaumont, B.; Hallot, E.; Lenartz, F.; Lefebre, F.; Lauwaet, D.; Poelmans, L.; Wolff, E.

2017-05-01

Risk situation can be mitigated by prevention measures, early warning tools and adequate monitoring of past experiences where Earth Observation and geospatial analysis have an adding value. This paper discusses the potential use of Earth Observation data and especially Land Cover / Land Use map in addressing within the three aspects of the risk assessment: danger, exposure and vulnerability. Evidences of the harmful effects of air pollution or heat waves are widely admitted and should increase in the context of global warming. Moreover, urban areas are generally warmer than rural surroundings, the so-called urban heat island. Combined with in-situ measurements, this paper presents models of city or local climate (air pollution and urban heat island), with a resolution of less than one kilometer, developed by integrating several sources of information including Earth Observation data and in particular Land Cover / Land Use. This assessment of the danger is then be related to a map of exposure and vulnerable people. Using dasymetric method to disaggregate statistical information on Land Cover / Land Use data, the SmartPop project analyzes in parallel the map of danger with the maps of people exposure A special focus on some categories at risk such as the elderly has been proposed by Aubrecht and Ozceylan (2013). Perspectives of the project includes the integration of a new Land Cover / Land Use map in the danger, exposure and vulnerability models and proposition of several aspects of risk assessment with the stakeholders of Wallonia.

European perspectives of food safety.

PubMed

Bánáti, Diána

2014-08-01

Food safety has been a growing concern among European Union (EU) citizens over the last decades. Despite the fact that food has never been safer, consumers are considerably uncertain and increasingly critical about the safety of their food. The introduction of new principles, such as the primary responsibility of producers, traceability, risk analysis, the separation of risk assessment and risk management provided a more transparent, science-based system in Europe, which can help to restore consumers' lost confidence. The present EU integrated approach to food safety 'from farm to fork' aims to assure a high level of food safety within the EU. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Risk Factor Analysis and the Youth Question

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

France, Alan

2008-01-01

This paper is concerned with exploring how in late modernity the "youth question" is being addressed by public policy and what impact this is having on understandings of childhood and youth. Historically the youth question has been shaped by adult anxieties over youth delinquency and their problems of social integration. In late modernity, this is…

Obesity and eating disorders in integrative prevention programmes for adolescents: Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Obesity and eating disorders are public health problems that have lifelong financial and personal costs and common risk factors, for example, body dissatisfaction, weight teasing and disordered eating. Obesity prevention interventions might lead to the development of an eating disorder since focusin...

Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Febrile neutropenia and related complications in breast cancer patients receiving pegfilgrastim primary prophylaxis versus current practice neutropaenia management: results from an integrated analysis.

PubMed

von Minckwitz, G; Schwenkglenks, M; Skacel, T; Lyman, G H; Pousa, A Lopez; Bacon, P; Easton, V; Aapro, M S

2009-03-01

Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) reduce febrile neutropaenia (FN) incidence but may be used inconsistently in current practice (CP). This study compared the efficacy of pegfilgrastim primary prophylaxis (PPP) with CP neutropaenia management in breast cancer. Individual patient data (N=2282) from 11 clinical trials and observational studies using chemotherapy regimens with > or =15% FN risk and PPP (6 mg, all cycles) or CP (no G-CSF or any cycle G-CSF/pegfilgrastim) were included in an integrated analysis. Most patients received docetaxel-containing regimens. A generalised linear mixed model was fitted (N=2210). Neutropaenia prophylaxis (PPP versus CP), age and disease stage influenced the incidence of FN. Overall, FN was less frequent with PPP than with CP (odds ratio [OR]: 0.124; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.08, 0.194; P<0.0001). Odds for cycle 1 FN, dose reductions > or =15% and FN-related hospitalisation were also significantly lower with PPP. These data support PPP in breast cancer patients receiving chemotherapy with moderately high/high FN risk.

[The workplace injury trends in the petrochemical industry: from data analysis to risk management].

PubMed

Campo, Giuseppe; Martini, Benedetta

2013-01-01

The most recent INAIL data show that, in 2009-2011, the accident frequency rate and the severity rate of workplace injuries in the chemical industry are lower than for the total non-agricultural workforce. The chemical industry, primarily because of the complex and hazardous work processes, requires an appropriate system for assessing and monitoring specific risks.The implementation of Responsible Care, a risk management system specific for the chemical industry, in 1984, has represented a historical step in the process of critical awareness of risk management by the chemical companies. Responsible Care is a risk management system specifically designed on the risk profiles of this type of enterprise, which integrates safety, health and environment. A risk management system, suitable for the needs of a chemical company, should extend its coverage area, beyond the responsible management of products throughout the entire production cycle, to the issues of corporate responsibility.

76 FR 69736 - Draft Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-09

... Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information..., ``Toxicological Review of Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Vanadium Pentoxide: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is...

75 FR 50761 - Draft Toxicological Review of Dichloromethane: In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-17

... Toxicological Review of Dichloromethane: In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information... Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-10/003A). The draft... Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' is available primarily...

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC`s PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

Hydra: A web-based system for cardiovascular analysis, diagnosis and treatment.

PubMed

Novo, J; Hermida, A; Ortega, M; Barreira, N; Penedo, M G; López, J E; Calvo, C

2017-02-01

Cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification is a highly complex process involving an extensive set of clinical trials to support the clinical decision-making process. There are many clinical conditions (e.g. diabetes, obesity, stress, etc.) that can lead to the early diagnosis or establishment of cardiovascular disease. In order to determine all these clinical conditions, a complete set of clinical patient analyses is typically performed, including a physical examination, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, blood pressure (BP) analysis, etc. This article presents a web-based system, called Hydra, which integrates a full and detailed set of services and functionalities for clinical decision support in order to help and improve the work of clinicians in cardiovascular patient diagnosis, risk assessment, treatment and monitoring over time. Hydra integrates a number of different services: a service for inputting all the information gathered by specialists (physical examination, habits, BP, blood analysis, electrocardiogram, etc.); a tool to automatically determine the CV risk stratification, including well-known standard risk stratification tables; and, finally, various tools to incorporate, analyze and graphically present the records of the ambulatory BP monitoring that provides BP analysis over a given period of time (24 or 48 hours). In addition, the platform presents a set of reports derived from all the information gathered from the patient in order to support physicians in their clinical decisions. Hydra was tested and validated in a real domain. In particular, internal medicine specialists at the Hypertension Unit of the Santiago de Compostela University Hospital (CHUS) validated the platform and used it in different clinical studies to demonstrate its utility. It was observed that the platform increased productivity and accuracy in the assessment of patient data yielding a cost reduction in clinical practice. This paper proposes a complete platform that includes different services for cardiovascular clinical decision support. It was also run as a web-based application to facilitate its use by clinicians, who can access the platform from any remote computer with Internet access. Hydra also includes different automated methods to facilitate the physicians' work and avoid potential errors in the analysis of patient data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry; Massie, Michael J.

2009-01-01

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system.

A web-based electronic patient record (ePR) system for data integration in movement analysis research on wheel-chair users to minimize shoulder pain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshpande, Ruchi R.; Requejo, Philip; Sutisna, Erry; Wang, Ximing; Liu, Margaret; McNitt-Gray, Sarah; Ruparel, Puja; Liu, Brent J.

2012-02-01

Patients confined to manual wheel-chairs are at an added risk of shoulder injury. There is a need for developing optimal bio-mechanical techniques for wheel-chair propulsion through movement analysis. Data collected is diverse and in need of normalization and integration. Current databases are ad-hoc and do not provide flexibility, extensibility and ease of access. The need for an efficient means to retrieve specific trial data, display it and compare data from multiple trials is unmet through lack of data association and synchronicity. We propose the development of a robust web-based ePR system that will enhance workflow and facilitate efficient data management.

Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

2016-04-01

In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.

2014-03-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

The holy grail of soil metal contamination site assessment: reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making using infield portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouillon, M.; Taylor, M. P.; Dong, C.

2016-12-01

This research assesses the advantages of integrating field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) technology for reducing the risk and increase confidence of decision making for metal-contaminated site assessments. Metal-contaminated sites are often highly heterogeneous and require a high sampling density to accurately characterize the distribution and concentration of contaminants. The current regulatory assessment approaches rely on a small number of samples processed using standard wet-chemistry methods. In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, the current notification trigger for characterizing metal-contaminated sites require the upper 95% confidence interval of the site mean to equal or exceed the relevant guidelines. The method's low `minimum' sampling requirements can misclassify sites due to the heterogeneous nature of soil contamination, leading to inaccurate decision making. To address this issue, we propose integrating infield pXRF analysis with the established sampling method to overcome sampling limitations. This approach increases the minimum sampling resolution and reduces the 95% CI of the site mean. Infield pXRF analysis at contamination hotspots enhances sample resolution efficiently and without the need to return to the site. In this study, the current and proposed pXRF site assessment methods are compared at five heterogeneous metal-contaminated sites by analysing the spatial distribution of contaminants, 95% confidence intervals of site means, and the sampling and analysis uncertainty associated with each method. Finally, an analysis of costs associated with both the current and proposed methods is presented to demonstrate the advantages of incorporating pXRF into metal-contaminated site assessments. The data shows that pXRF integrated site assessments allows for faster, cost-efficient, characterisation of metal-contaminated sites with greater confidence for decision making.

An Integrated Urban Flood Analysis System in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Min-Seok; Yoon, Tae-Hyung; Choi, Ji-Hyeok

2017-04-01

Due to climate change and the rapid growth of urbanization, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has caused urban floods. As a result, we studied climate change in Korea and developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. This system supports synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information. As part of the measures to deal with the increase of inland flood damage, we have found it necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that systematizes technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast, taking into consideration both inland and river water. This combined inland-river flood analysis system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area. In addition, flood forecasts should be accurate and immediate. Accurate flood forecasts signify that the prediction of the watch, warning time and water level is precise. Immediate flood forecasts represent the forecasts lead time which is the time needed to evacuate. Therefore, in this study, in order to apply rainfall-runoff method to medium and small urban stream for flood forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasting using radar is applied to improve immediacy. Finally, it supports synthetic decision-making for prevention of flood disaster through real-time monitoring. Keywords: Urban Flood, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B066744-04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Geographical and pedological drivers of distribution and risks to soil fauna of seven metals (Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) in British soils.

PubMed

Spurgeon, David J; Rowland, Philip; Ainsworth, Gillian; Rothery, Peter; Long, Sara; Black, Helaina I J

2008-05-01

Concentrations of seven metals were measured in over 1000 samples as part of an integrated survey. Sixteen metal pairs were significantly positively correlated. Cluster analysis identified two clusters. Metals from the largest (Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn), but not the smallest (Cd, Pb) cluster were significantly negatively correlated with spatial location and soil pH and organic matter content. Cd and Pb were not correlated with these parameters, due possibly to the masking effect of recent extensive release. Analysis of trends with soil properties in different habitats indicated that general trends may not necessarily be applicable to all areas. A risk assessment indicated that Zn poses the most widespread direct risk to soil fauna and Cd the least. Any risks associated with high metal concentrations are, however, likely to be greatest in habitats such as arable and horticultural, improved grassland and built up areas where soil metal concentrations are more frequently elevated.

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context.

PubMed

Kull, Daniel; Mechler, Reinhard; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

2013-07-01

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. © 2013 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2013.

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Risk analysis of the governance system affecting outcomes in the Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Dale, Allan P; Vella, Karen; Pressey, Robert L; Brodie, Jon; Gooch, Margaret; Potts, Ruth; Eberhard, Rachel

2016-12-01

The state and trend of the Great Barrier Reef's (GBR's) ecological health remains problematic, influencing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) statements regarding GBR governance. While UNESCO's concerns triggered separate strategic assessments by the Australian and Queensland governments, there has been no independent and integrated review of the key risks within the overall system of governance influencing GBR outcomes. As a case study of international significance, this paper applies Governance Systems Analysis (GSA), a novel analytical framework that identifies the governance themes, domains and subdomains most likely to influence environmental and socio-economic outcomes in complex natural systems. This GBR-focussed application of GSA identifies governance subdomains that present high, medium, or low risk of failure to produce positive outcomes for the Reef. This enabled us to determine that three "whole of system" governance problems could undermine GBR outcomes. First, we stress the integrative importance of the Long Term Sustainability Plan (LTSP) Subdomain. Sponsored by the Australian and Queensland governments, this subdomain concerns the primary institutional arrangements for coordinated GBR planning and delivery, but due to its recent emergence, it faces several internal governance challenges. Second, we find a major risk of implementation failure in the achievement of GBR water quality actions due to a lack of system-wide focus on building strong and stable delivery systems at catchment scale. Finally, we conclude that the LTSP Subdomain currently has too limited a mandate/capacity to influence several high-risk subdomains that have not been, but must be more strongly aligned with Reef management (e.g. the Greenhouse Gas Emission Management Subdomain). Our analysis enables exploration of governance system reforms needed to address environmental trends in the GBR and reflects on the potential application of GSA in other complex land and sea-scapes across the globe. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive task analysis: harmonizing tasks to human capacities.

PubMed

Neerincx, M A; Griffioen, E

1996-04-01

This paper presents the development of a cognitive task analysis that assesses the task load of jobs and provides indicators for the redesign of jobs. General principles of human task performance were selected and, subsequently, integrated into current task modelling techniques. The resulting cognitive task analysis centres around four aspects of task load: the number of actions in a period, the ratio between knowledge- and rule-based actions, lengthy uninterrupted actions, and momentary overloading. The method consists of three stages: (1) construction of a hierarchical task model, (2) a time-line analysis and task load assessment, and (3), if necessary, adjustment of the task model. An application of the cognitive task analysis in railway traffic control showed its benefits over the 'old' task load analysis of the Netherlands Railways. It provided a provisional standard for traffic control jobs, conveyed two load risks -- momentary overloading and underloading -- and resulted in proposals to satisfy the standard and to diminish the two load risk.

Integrating multiple molecular sources into a clinical risk prediction signature by extracting complementary information.

PubMed

Hieke, Stefanie; Benner, Axel; Schlenl, Richard F; Schumacher, Martin; Bullinger, Lars; Binder, Harald

2016-08-30

High-throughput technology allows for genome-wide measurements at different molecular levels for the same patient, e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and gene expression. Correspondingly, it might be beneficial to also integrate complementary information from different molecular levels when building multivariable risk prediction models for a clinical endpoint, such as treatment response or survival. Unfortunately, such a high-dimensional modeling task will often be complicated by a limited overlap of molecular measurements at different levels between patients, i.e. measurements from all molecular levels are available only for a smaller proportion of patients. We propose a sequential strategy for building clinical risk prediction models that integrate genome-wide measurements from two molecular levels in a complementary way. To deal with partial overlap, we develop an imputation approach that allows us to use all available data. This approach is investigated in two acute myeloid leukemia applications combining gene expression with either SNP or DNA methylation data. After obtaining a sparse risk prediction signature e.g. from SNP data, an automatically selected set of prognostic SNPs, by componentwise likelihood-based boosting, imputation is performed for the corresponding linear predictor by a linking model that incorporates e.g. gene expression measurements. The imputed linear predictor is then used for adjustment when building a prognostic signature from the gene expression data. For evaluation, we consider stability, as quantified by inclusion frequencies across resampling data sets. Despite an extremely small overlap in the application example with gene expression and SNPs, several genes are seen to be more stably identified when taking the (imputed) linear predictor from the SNP data into account. In the application with gene expression and DNA methylation, prediction performance with respect to survival also indicates that the proposed approach might work well. We consider imputation of linear predictor values to be a feasible and sensible approach for dealing with partial overlap in complementary integrative analysis of molecular measurements at different levels. More generally, these results indicate that a complementary strategy for integrating different molecular levels can result in more stable risk prediction signatures, potentially providing a more reliable insight into the underlying biology.

Detecting GNSS spoofing attacks using INS coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanil, Cagatay

Vulnerability of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) users to signal spoofing is a critical threat to positioning integrity, especially in aviation applications, where the consequences are potentially catastrophic. In response, this research describes and evaluates a new approach to directly detect spoofing using integrated Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) and fault detection concepts based on integrity monitoring. The monitors developed here can be implemented into positioning systems using INS/GNSS integration via 1) tightly-coupled, 2) loosely-coupled, and 3) uncoupled schemes. New evaluation methods enable the statistical computation of integrity risk resulting from a worst-case spoofing attack - without needing to simulate an unmanageably large number of individual aircraft approaches. Integrity risk is an absolute measure of safety and a well-established metric in aircraft navigation. A novel closed-form solution to the worst-case time sequence of GNSS signals is derived to maximize the integrity risk for each monitor and used in the covariance analyses. This methodology tests the performance of the monitors against the most sophisticated spoofers, capable of tracking the aircraft position - for example, by means of remote tracking or onboard sensing. Another contribution is a comprehensive closed-loop model that encapsulates the vehicle and compensator (estimator and controller) dynamics. A sensitivity analysis uses this model to quantify the leveraging impact of the vehicle's dynamic responses (e.g., to wind gusts, or to autopilot's acceleration commands) on the monitor's detection capability. The performance of the monitors is evaluated for two safety-critical terminal area navigation applications: 1) autonomous shipboard landing and 2) Boeing 747 (B747) landing assisted with Ground Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS). It is demonstrated that for both systems, the monitors are capable of meeting the most stringent precision approach and landing integrity requirements of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). The statistical evaluation methods developed here can be used as a baseline procedure in the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) certification of spoof-free navigation systems. The final contribution is an investigation of INS sensor quality on detection performance. This determines the minimum sensor requirements to perform standalone GNSS positioning in general en route applications with guaranteed spoofing detection integrity.

Forecasting the Risks of Pollution from Ships along the Portuguese Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Rodrigo; Neves, Ramiro; Lourenço, Filipe; Braunschweig, Frank

2013-04-01

Pollution risks in coastal and marine environments are in general based in a static approach, considering historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. This approach is quite important in a planning stage. However, an alternative approach can be studied, due to the latest implementation of several different real-time monitoring tools as well as faster performances in the generation of numerical forecasts for metocean properties and trajectories of pollutants spilt at sea or costal zones. These developments provide the possibility of developing an integrated support system for better decision-making in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks. An innovative methodology to dynamically produce quantified risks in real-time, integrating best available information from numerical forecasts and the existing monitoring tools, has been developed and applied to the Portuguese Coast. The developed system provides coastal pollution risk levels associated to potential (or real) oil spill incidents from ship collision, grounding or foundering, taking into account regional statistic information on vessel accidents and coastal sensitivity indexes, real-time vessel information (positioning, cargo type, speed and vessel type) obtained from AIS, best-available metocean numerical forecasts (hydrodynamics, meteorology - including visibility, wave conditions) and simulated scenarios by the oil spill fate and behaviour component of MOHID Water Modelling System. Different spill fate and behaviour simulations are continuously generated and processed in background (assuming hypothetical spills from vessels), based on variable vessel information and metocean conditions. Results from these simulations are used in the quantification of consequences of potential spills. All historic information is continuously stored in a database (for risk analysis at a later stage). This dynamic approach improves the accuracy in quantification of consequences to the shoreline, as well as the decision support model, allowing a more effective prioritization of individual ships and geographical areas. This system was initially implemented in Portugal for oil spills. The implementation in other Atlantic Regions (starting in Galician Coast, Spain) is being executed in the scope of ARCOPOL+ project (2011-1/150), as well as other relevant updates. The system is being adapted to include risk modelling of chemical spills, as well as fire & explosion accidents and operational illegal discharges. Also the integration of EMSA's THETIS "ship risk profile" (according to Annex 7 from Paris Memorandum of Understanding) in the risk model is being tested. Finally, a new component is being developed to compute the risk for specific time periods, taking advantage of the information previously stored in the database on the positioning of vessels and / or results of numerical models. This component provides the possibility of obtaining a support tool for detailed characterization of risk profiles in certain periods or a sensitivity analysis on different parameters.

Uncovering transcription factor and microRNA risk regulatory pathways associated with osteoarthritis by network analysis.

PubMed

Song, Zhenhua; Zhang, Chi; He, Lingxiao; Sui, Yanfang; Lin, Xiafei; Pan, Jingjing

2018-06-12

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of joint disease. The development of inflammation have been considered to play a key role during the progression of OA. Regulatory pathways are known to play crucial roles in many pathogenic processes. Thus, deciphering these risk regulatory pathways is critical for elucidating the mechanisms underlying OA. We constructed an OA-specific regulatory network by integrating comprehensive curated transcription and post-transcriptional resource involving transcription factor (TF) and microRNA (miRNA). To deepen our understanding of underlying molecular mechanisms of OA, we developed an integrated systems approach to identify OA-specific risk regulatory pathways. In this study, we identified 89 significantly differentially expressed genes between normal and inflamed areas of OA patients. We found the OA-specific regulatory network was a standard scale-free network with small-world properties. It significant enriched many immune response-related functions including leukocyte differentiation, myeloid differentiation and T cell activation. Finally, 141 risk regulatory pathways were identified based on OA-specific regulatory network, which contains some known regulator of OA. The risk regulatory pathways may provide clues for the etiology of OA and be a potential resource for the discovery of novel OA-associated disease genes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

The assessment of human health impact caused by industrial and civil activities in the Pace Valley of Messina.

PubMed

Morra, P; Lisi, R; Spadoni, G; Maschio, G

2009-06-01

The impact of industrial and civil activities on an agricultural and residential area is presented in a detailed and global analysis. The examined area is the Pace river valley situated in the northern zone of Messina (Italy). The sources of pollution present in the area are: a Municipal Solid Waste Incinerator operating since 1979, a disused urban solid waste landfill which was used for 30 years, an urban solid waste treatment facility with heavy vehicles traffic, and two open pits for the production of bitumen. Large quantities of toxic, carcinogenic substances and criteria pollutants are released into the environment and represent potential hazards to human health. The analysis is performed using the EHHRA-GIS tool which employs an integrated, multimedia, multi-exposure pathways and multi-receptor risk assessment model that is able to manage all the steps which constitute the human health risk analysis in a georeferenced structure. The transport of pollutants in different environmental media is assessed applying models (AERMOD, GMS, CALINE) that take into account the particular three-dimensional morphology of the terrain. The results obtained, combined with a probabilistic risk assessment and a sensitivity analysis of calculation parameters, are a comprehensive assessment of the total human health risk in the area. Finally human health risks caused by toxic and carcinogenic substances are compared with acceptable legal limits in order to support environmental managers' decisions.

Learning from the experience: preliminary results of integration experiments within PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparslan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybulia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Balasco, M.; Zakharenkova, I.; Ouzounov, D.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.

2012-04-01

PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) EU-FP7 project is devoted to demonstrate - integrating different observational data, comparing and improving different data analysis methods - how it is possible to progressively increase reliability of short term seismic risk assessment. Three main testing area were selected (Italy, Turkey and Sakhalin ) in order to concentrate observations and integration efforts starting with a learning phase on selected event in the past devoted to identify the most suitable parameters, observations technologies, data analysis algorithms. To this aim events offering major possibilities (variety) of integration were particularly considered - Abruzzo EQ (April 6th 2009 Mw 6.3) for Italy, Elazig EQ (March 8th 2010 Mw 6.1) for Turkey and Nevelsk EQ (August 2nd 2007 Mw 6.2) for Sakhalin - without excluding other significant events occurred during 2011 like the ones of Tōhoku in Japan and Van in Turkey. For these events, different ground (80 radon and 29 spring water stations in Turkey region, 2 magneto-telluric in Italy) and satellite (18 different systems) based observations, 11 data analysis methods, for 7 measured parameters, have been compared and integrated. Results achieved by applying a validation/confutation approach devoted to evaluate the presence/absence of anomalous space-time transients in single and/or integrated observation time-series will be discussed also in comparison with results independently achieved by other authors.

The Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment Project: A New Way of Looking at Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Unks, Ruth A.; Thor, Linda

2008-01-01

This article reviews the Maricopa Integrated Risk Assessment (MIRA) project and discusses its challenges and successes. Strategies and resources are offered for assisting community college administrators, faculty, and staff to successfully implement enterprise risk management at their institutions.

HIV Risk and Protection among Gay Male Couples: The Role of Gay Community Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fergus, Stevenson; Lewis, Megan A.; Darbes, Lynae A.; Butterfield, Rita M.

2005-01-01

This study examined the association between different types of integration in the gay community and HIV risk among gay male couples. Previous research linking gay community integration and involvement among couples to HIV risk has been equivocal. Each partner in 59 gay couples completed a separate anonymous questionnaire that assessed two types of…

Having a Go: Looking at Teachers' Experience of Risk-Taking in Technology Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Sarah K.; Gigliotti, Amanda

2016-01-01

Risk is an integral part of change. Technology-related change in teachers' practice is guided by confidence engaging in and beliefs about integration. However, it is also affected by how teachers feel about taking risks, experimenting and change. This paper presents a theoretical framework of affect and emotion to understand how teachers…

78 FR 26029 - Toxicological Review of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-03

... of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information System... Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)'' (EPA/635/R-11/001Ba), which will be posted on NCEA's Web site... Review of Methanol (Non-Cancer): In Support of Summary Information on the Integrated Risk Information...

Engineering risk reduction in satellite programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, E. S., Jr.

1979-01-01

Methods developed in planning and executing system safety engineering programs for Lockheed satellite integration contracts are presented. These procedures establish the applicable safety design criteria, document design compliance and assess the residual risks where non-compliant design is proposed, and provide for hazard analysis of system level test, handling and launch preparations. Operations hazard analysis identifies product protection and product liability hazards prior to the preparation of operational procedures and provides safety requirements for inclusion in them. The method developed for documenting all residual hazards for the attention of program management assures an acceptable minimum level of risk prior to program deployment. The results are significant for persons responsible for managing or engineering the deployment and production of complex high cost equipment under current product liability law and cost/time constraints, have a responsibility to minimize the possibility of an accident, and should have documentation to provide a defense in a product liability suit.

Fatal falls in the US construction industry, 1990 to 1999.

PubMed

Derr, J; Forst, L; Chen, H Y; Conroy, L

2001-10-01

The Occupational Safety and Health Administration's (OSHA's) Integrated Management Information System (IMIS) database allows for the detailed analysis of risk factors surrounding fatal occupational events. This study used IMIS data to (1) perform a risk factor analysis of fatal construction falls, and (2) assess the impact of the February 1995 29 CFR Part 1926 Subpart M OSHA fall protection regulations for construction by calculating trends in fatal fall rates. In addition, IMIS data on fatal construction falls were compared with data from other occupational fatality surveillance systems. For falls in construction, the study identified several demographic factors that may indicate increased risk. A statistically significant downward trend in fatal falls was evident in all construction and within several construction categories during the decade. Although the study failed to show a statistically significant intervention effect from the new OSHA regulations, it may have lacked the power to do so.

A critical analysis of the South African Disaster Management Act and Policy Framework.

PubMed

van Niekerk, Dewald

2014-10-01

The promulgation of the South African Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Policy Framework of 2005 placed South Africa at the international forefront by integrating disaster risk reduction into all spheres of government through a decentralised approach. Yet, good policy and legislation do not necessarily translate into good practice. This paper provides a critical analysis of the Act and Policy Framework. Using qualitative research methods, it analyses the attitudes and perceptions of senior public officials on all levels of government, the private sector and academia. The study finds that one of the weakest aspects of the Act and Framework is the absence of clear guidance to local municipalities. The placement of the disaster risk management function on all tiers of government remains problematic, funding is inadequate and overall knowledge and capacities for disaster risk reduction are insufficient. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

A Methodology for the Integration of a Mechanistic Source Term Analysis in a Probabilistic Framework for Advanced Reactors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, Dave; Brunett, Acacia J.; Bucknor, Matthew

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and Argonne National Laboratory are currently engaged in a joint effort to modernize and develop probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for advanced non-light water reactors. At a high level, the primary outcome of this project will be the development of next-generation PRA methodologies that will enable risk-informed prioritization of safety- and reliability-focused research and development, while also identifying gaps that may be resolved through additional research. A subset of this effort is the development of PRA methodologies to conduct a mechanistic source term (MST) analysis for event sequences that could result in the release ofmore » radionuclides. The MST analysis seeks to realistically model and assess the transport, retention, and release of radionuclides from the reactor to the environment. The MST methods developed during this project seek to satisfy the requirements of the Mechanistic Source Term element of the ASME/ANS Non-LWR PRA standard. The MST methodology consists of separate analysis approaches for risk-significant and non-risk significant event sequences that may result in the release of radionuclides from the reactor. For risk-significant event sequences, the methodology focuses on a detailed assessment, using mechanistic models, of radionuclide release from the fuel, transport through and release from the primary system, transport in the containment, and finally release to the environment. The analysis approach for non-risk significant event sequences examines the possibility of large radionuclide releases due to events such as re-criticality or the complete loss of radionuclide barriers. This paper provides details on the MST methodology, including the interface between the MST analysis and other elements of the PRA, and provides a simplified example MST calculation for a sodium fast reactor.« less

Risk of a Second Malignant Neoplasm After Cancer in Childhood Treated With Radiotherapy: Correlation With the Integral Dose Restricted to the Irradiated Fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, France; Institut Gustave Roussy, Villejuif; Universite Paris XI, Villejuif

2008-03-01

Purpose: After successful treatment of cancers in childhood, the occurrence of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) came to the fore. Few studies have considered the relationship between the radiation dose received and the risk of developing an SMN. To take into account the heterogeneity of the dose distribution so as to evaluate the overall risk of an SMN after a childhood cancer, we therefore focused on the integral dose restricted to the irradiated fields. Methods and Materials: The study was performed in a cohort of 4,401 patients who were 3-year survivors of all types of childhood cancer treated between 1947 andmore » 1986 in France and Great Britain. For each patient, the integral dose was estimated for the volume inside the beam edges. Results: We found a significant dose-response relationship between the overall risk of an SMN and the estimated integral dose. The excess relative risk for each incremental unit of the integral dose was only 0.008 in a linear model and 0.017 when a negative exponential term was considered, when adjusted for chemotherapy. The risk of SMN occurrence was 2.6 times higher in the case of irradiation. However among patients who had received radiotherapy, only those who had received the highest integral dose actually had a higher risk. Conclusions: The integral dose in our study cannot be considered as a good predictor of later risks. However other studies with the same study design are obviously needed to evaluate the use of the integral dose as a tool for decision making concerning different radiotherapy techniques.« less

Development of Integrated Flood Analysis System for Improving Flood Mitigation Capabilities in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-suk

2016-04-01

Recently, the needs of people are growing for a more safety life and secure homeland from unexpected natural disasters. Flood damages have been recorded every year and those damages are greater than the annual average of 2 trillion won since 2000 in Korea. It has been increased in casualties and property damages due to flooding caused by hydrometeorlogical extremes according to climate change. Although the importance of flooding situation is emerging rapidly, studies related to development of integrated management system for reducing floods are insufficient in Korea. In addition, it is difficult to effectively reduce floods without developing integrated operation system taking into account of sewage pipe network configuration with the river level. Since the floods result in increasing damages to infrastructure, as well as life and property, structural and non-structural measures should be urgently established in order to effectively reduce the flood. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting for supporting synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information in Korea. Keywords: Flooding, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ011686022015)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea

A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei

2017-11-01

Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) by Multi-parametric Observations: Preliminary Results of PRIME experiment within the PRE-EARTHQUAKES EU-FP7 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tramutoli, V.; Inan, S.; Jakowski, N.; Pulinets, S. A.; Romanov, A.; Filizzola, C.; Shagimuratov, I.; Pergola, N.; Ouzounov, D. P.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Parrot, M.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Alparlsan, E.; Wilken, V.; Tsybukia, K.; Romanov, A.; Paciello, R.; Zakharenkova, I.; Romano, G.

2012-12-01

The integration of different observations together with the refinement of data analysis methods, is generally expected to improve our present knowledge of preparatory phases of earthquakes and of their possible precursors. This is also the main goal of PRE-EARTHQUAKES (Processing Russian and European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors Studies) the FP7 Project which, to this aim, committed together, different international expertise and observational capabilities, in the last 2 years. In the learning phase of the project, different parameters (e.g. thermal anomalies, total electron content, radon concentration, etc.), measured from ground and satellite systems and analyzed by using different data analysis approaches, have been studied for selected geographic areas and specific seismic events in the past. Since July 2012 the PRIME (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Real-time Integration and Monitoring Experiment) started attempting to perform, on the base of independent observations collected and integrated in real-time through the PEG (PRE-EARTHQUAKES Geo-portal), a Dynamic Assessment of Seismic Risk (DASR) on selected geographic areas of Europe (Italy-Greece-Turkey) and Asia (Kamchatka, Sakhalin, Japan). In this paper, results so far achieved as well as the potential and opportunities they open for a worldwide Earthquake Observation System (EQuOS) - as a dedicated component of GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems) - will be presented.

Dynamic Data Management Based on Archival Process Integration at the Centre for Environmental Data Archival

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Esther; Waterfall, Alison; Pepler, Sam; Newey, Charles

2015-04-01

In this paper we decribe a business process modelling approach to the integration of exisiting archival activities. We provide a high level overview of existing practice and discuss how procedures can be extended and supported through the description of preservation state. The aim of which is to faciliate the dynamic controlled management of scientific data through its lifecycle. The main types of archival processes considered are: • Management processes that govern the operation of an archive. These management processes include archival governance (preservation state management, selection of archival candidates and strategic management) . • Operational processes that constitute the core activities of the archive which maintain the value of research assets. These operational processes are the acquisition, ingestion, deletion, generation of metadata and preservation actvities, • Supporting processes, which include planning, risk analysis and monitoring of the community/preservation environment. We then proceed by describing the feasability testing of extended risk management and planning procedures which integrate current practices. This was done through the CEDA Archival Format Audit which inspected British Atmospherics Data Centre and National Earth Observation Data Centre Archival holdings. These holdings are extensive, comprising of around 2PB of data and 137 million individual files which were analysed and characterised in terms of format based risk. We are then able to present an overview of the risk burden faced by a large scale archive attempting to maintain the usability of heterogeneous environmental data sets. We conclude by presenting a dynamic data management information model that is capable of describing the preservation state of archival holdings throughout the data lifecycle. We provide discussion of the following core model entities and their relationships: • Aspirational entities, which include Data Entity definitions and their associated Preservation Objectives. • Risk entities, which act as drivers for change within the data lifecycle. These include Acquisitional Risks, Technical Risks, Strategic Risks and External Risks • Plan entities, which detail the actions to bring about change within an archive. These include Acquisition Plans, Preservation Plans and Monitoring plans • The Result entities describe the successful outcomes of the executed plans. These include Acquisitions, Mitigations and Accepted Risks.

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Risk factors for chronic and recurrent otitis media-a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13-13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78-2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06-116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11-13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.

Risk Factors for Chronic and Recurrent Otitis Media–A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Xu, Min; Zhang, Jin; Zeng, Lingxia; Wang, Yanfei; Zheng, Qing Yin

2014-01-01

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13–1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13–13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78–2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06–116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02–1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11–13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria. PMID:24466073

Analysing Surface Exposure to Climate Dynamics in the Himalayas to Adopt a Planning Framework for Landslide Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2017-12-01

Himalayas rank first in the inventory of most densely populated and congested high altitude mountain regions of the planet. The region is mostly characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools along with constraints of terrain undermining the carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Moreover, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly urbanizing mountain towns to increased frequency and severity of risks from extreme weather events. Such events pose multifold threat by easily translating to hazards, without the ability to respond and mitigate. Additionally, the recent extreme climate dynamics such as rainfall patterns have influenced the natural rate of surface/slope processes in the Himalaya. The aim of the study was to analyze the extent of interaction between climate dynamics and upland surface to develop participatory planning framework for landslide risk reduction using Integral Geographic Information System (integral GIS). At this stage, the study is limited to only rainfall triggered landslides (RTL). The study region lies in the middle Himalayan range (Himachal). Research utilized terrain analysis tools in integral GIS and identified risk susceptible surface without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2. Interference in surface/slope processes. Analysis covered most of the relevant surface factors including geology, slope instability, infrastructure development, natural and urban drainage system, land-cover and land-use as well. The outcome included an exposure-reduced model of existing terrain and the surface-process accommodated by it, with the use of local technical tools available among the poor and fragile mountain community. The final participatory planning framework successfully harmonized people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporated priorities of local authorities. This research is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of the (often) conflicting perspectives, interests, and approaches of multiplicity of stakeholders thereby having vast potential to replicate/upscale in mountains beyond the study region as it ensures barrier free risk-communication through the most affordable and innovative tools.

Integration of a Radiosensitivity Molecular Signature Into the Assessment of Local Recurrence Risk in Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Torres-Roca, Javier F., E-mail: javier.torresroca@moffitt.org; Department of Chemical Biology and Molecular Medicine, Moffitt Cancer Center, Tampa, Florida; Fulp, William J.

Purpose: Recently, we developed radiosensitivity (RSI), a clinically validated molecular signature that estimates tumor radiosensitivity. In the present study, we tested whether integrating RSI with the molecular subtype refines the classification of local recurrence (LR) risk in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: RSI and molecular subtype were evaluated in 343 patients treated with breast-conserving therapy that included whole-breast radiation therapy with or without a tumor bed boost (dose range 45-72 Gy). The follow-up period for patients without recurrence was 10 years. The clinical endpoint was LR-free survival. Results: Although RSI did not uniformly predict for LR across the entire cohort, combining RSImore » and the molecular subtype identified a subpopulation with an increased risk of LR: triple negative (TN) and radioresistant (reference TN-radioresistant, hazard ratio [HR] 0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15-0.92, P=.02). TN patients who were RSI-sensitive/intermediate had LR rates similar to those of luminal (LUM) patients (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.47-1.57, P=.63). On multivariate analysis, combined RSI and molecular subtype (P=.004) and age (P=.001) were the most significant predictors of LR. In contrast, integrating RSI into the LUM subtype did not identify additional risk groups. We hypothesized that radiation dose escalation was affecting radioresistance in the LUM subtype and serving as a confounder. An increased radiation dose decreased LR only in the luminal-resistant (LUM-R) subset (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.05-0.98, P=.03). On multivariate analysis, the radiation dose was an independent variable only in the LUMA/B-RR subset (HR 0.025, 95% CI 0.001-0.946, P=.046), along with age (P=.008), T stage (P=.004), and chemotherapy (P=.008). Conclusions: The combined molecular subtype–RSI identified a novel molecular subpopulation (TN and radioresistant) with an increased risk of LR after breast-conserving therapy. We propose that the combination of RSI and molecular subtype could be useful in guiding radiation therapy–based decisions in breast cancer.« less

A Quantitative Threats Analysis for the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

2007-01-01

The Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) is an endangered marine mammal endemic to the southeastern United States. The primary threats to manatee populations are collisions with watercraft and the potential loss of warm-water refuges. For the purposes of listing, recovery, and regulation under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), an understanding of the relative effects of the principal threats is needed. This work is a quantitative approach to threats analysis, grounded in the assumption that an appropriate measure of status under the ESA is based on the risk of extinction, as quantified by the probability of quasi-extinction. This is related to the qualitative threats analyses that are more common under the ESA, but provides an additional level of rigor, objectivity, and integration. In this approach, our philosophy is that analysis of the five threat factors described in Section 4(a)(1) of the ESA can be undertaken within an integrated quantitative framework. The basis of this threats analysis is a comparative population viability analysis. This involves forecasting the Florida manatee population under different scenarios regarding the presence of threats, while accounting for process variation (environmental, demographic, and catastrophic stochasticity) as well as parametric and structural uncertainty. We used the manatee core biological model (CBM) for this viability analysis, and considered the role of five threats: watercraft-related mortality, loss of warm-water habitat in winter, mortality in water-control structures, entanglement, and red tide. All scenarios were run with an underlying parallel structure that allowed a more powerful estimation of the effects of the various threats. The results reflect our understanding of manatee ecology (as captured in the structure of the CBM), our estimates of manatee demography (as described by the parameters in the model), and our characterization of the mechanisms by which the threats act on manatees. As an example of the type of results generated, we estimated that the probability of the manatee population falling to less than 250 adults on either the Atlantic or Gulf coasts (from a current statewide population size of near 3300) within 100 years is 8.6%. Complete removal of the watercraft threat alone would reduce this risk to 0.4%; complete removal of the warm-water threat to 4.2%; removal of both threats would reduce the risk to 0.1%. The modeling approach we have taken also allows us to consider partial removal of threats, as well as removal of multiple threats simultaneously. We believe the measure we have proposed (probability of quasi-extinction over y years, with quasi-extinction defined as dropping below a threshold of z on either coast) is a suitable measure of status that integrates a number of the elements that are relevant to interpretation under the ESA (it directly integrates risk of extinction and reduction of range, and indirectly integrates loss of genetic diversity). But the identification of the time frame of interest and the tolerable risk of quasi-extinction are policy decisions, and an ecology-based quasi-extinction threshold has not yet been determined. We have endeavored to provide results over a wide range of these parameters to give decision-makers useful information to assess status. This assessment of threats suggests that watercraft-related mortality is having the greatest impact on manatee population growth and resilience. Elimination of this single threat would greatly reduce the probability of quasi-extinction. Loss of warm-water is also a significant threat, particularly over the long-term. Red tide and entanglement, while noticeable threats, have had less of an impact on the manatee population. The effect of water control structures may have already been largely mitigated. We did not, however, consider an exhaustive list of threats. Other threats (e.g., reduction of food resources due to storms and development) may play a

A network model of genomic hormone interactions underlying dementia and its translational validation through serendipitous off-target effect

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background While the majority of studies have focused on the association between sex hormones and dementia, emerging evidence supports the role of other hormone signals in increasing dementia risk. However, due to the lack of an integrated view on mechanistic interactions of hormone signaling pathways associated with dementia, molecular mechanisms through which hormones contribute to the increased risk of dementia has remained unclear and capacity of translating hormone signals to potential therapeutic and diagnostic applications in relation to dementia has been undervalued. Methods Using an integrative knowledge- and data-driven approach, a global hormone interaction network in the context of dementia was constructed, which was further filtered down to a model of convergent hormone signaling pathways. This model was evaluated for its biological and clinical relevance through pathway recovery test, evidence-based analysis, and biomarker-guided analysis. Translational validation of the model was performed using the proposed novel mechanism discovery approach based on ‘serendipitous off-target effects’. Results Our results reveal the existence of a well-connected hormone interaction network underlying dementia. Seven hormone signaling pathways converge at the core of the hormone interaction network, which are shown to be mechanistically linked to the risk of dementia. Amongst these pathways, estrogen signaling pathway takes the major part in the model and insulin signaling pathway is analyzed for its association to learning and memory functions. Validation of the model through serendipitous off-target effects suggests that hormone signaling pathways substantially contribute to the pathogenesis of dementia. Conclusions The integrated network model of hormone interactions underlying dementia may serve as an initial translational platform for identifying potential therapeutic targets and candidate biomarkers for dementia-spectrum disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:23885764

Thinking beyond Opisthorchis viverrini for risk of cholangiocarcinoma in the lower Mekong region: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Steele, Jennifer A; Richter, Carsten H; Echaubard, Pierre; Saenna, Parichat; Stout, Virginia; Sithithaworn, Paiboon; Wilcox, Bruce A

2018-05-17

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a fatal bile duct cancer associated with infection by the liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in the lower Mekong region. Numerous public health interventions have focused on reducing exposure to O. viverrini, but incidence of CCA in the region remains high. While this may indicate the inefficacy of public health interventions due to complex social and cultural factors, it may further indicate other risk factors or interactions with the parasite are important in pathogenesis of CCA. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of described risk factors for CCA in addition to O. viverrini to guide future integrative interventions. We searched five international and seven Thai research databases to identify studies relevant to risk factors for CCA in the lower Mekong region. Selected studies were assessed for risk of bias and quality in terms of study design, population, CCA diagnostic methods, and statistical methods. The final 18 included studies reported numerous risk factors which were grouped into behaviors, socioeconomics, diet, genetics, gender, immune response, other infections, and treatment for O. viverrini. Seventeen risk factors were reported by two or more studies and were assessed with random effects models during meta-analysis. This meta-analysis indicates that the combination of alcohol and smoking (OR = 11.1, 95% CI: 5.63-21.92, P <  0.0001) is most significantly associated with increased risk for CCA and is an even greater risk factor than O. viverrini exposure. This analysis also suggests that family history of cancer, consumption of raw cyprinoid fish, consumption of high nitrate foods, and praziquantel treatment are associated with significantly increased risk. These risk factors may have complex relationships with the host, parasite, or pathogenesis of CCA, and many of these risk factors were found to interact with each other in one or more studies. Our findings suggest that a complex variety of risk factors in addition to O. viverrini infection should be addressed in future public health interventions to reduce CCA in affected regions. In particular, smoking and alcohol use, dietary patterns, and socioeconomic factors should be considered when developing intervention programs to reduce CCA.

A causal loop analysis of the sustainability of integrated community case management in Rwanda.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric; Morrow, Melanie; Langston, Anne; Weiss, Jennifer; Landegger, Justine; Tsuma, Laban

2015-04-01

Expansion of community health services in Rwanda has come with the national scale up of integrated Community Case Management (iCCM) of malaria, pneumonia and diarrhea. We used a sustainability assessment framework as part of a large-scale project evaluation to identify factors affecting iCCM sustainability (2011). We then (2012) used causal-loop analysis to identify systems determinants of iCCM sustainability from a national systems perspective. This allows us to develop three high-probability future scenarios putting the achievements of community health at risk, and to recommend mitigating strategies. Our causal loop diagram highlights both balancing and reinforcing loops of cause and effect in the national iCCM system. Financial, political and technical scenarios carry high probability for threatening the sustainability through: (1) reduction in performance-based financing resources, (2) political shocks and erosion of political commitment for community health, and (3) insufficient progress in resolving district health systems--"building blocks"--performance gaps. In a complex health system, the consequences of choices may be delayed and hard to predict precisely. Causal loop analysis and scenario mapping make explicit complex cause-and-effects relationships and high probability risks, which need to be anticipated and mitigated. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP in 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance

PubMed Central

Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-jian; Landén, Mikael; Bergen, Sarah E.; Hultman, Christina M.; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Wen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Zhang, Chen; Liu, Jiewei; Mattheisen, Manuel; Cichon, Sven; Mühleisen, Thomas W.; Degenhardt, Franziska A.; Nöthen, Markus M.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Maria; Li, Hao; Fuller, Chris K.; Chen, Chunhui; Dong, Qi; Chen, Chuansheng; Jamain, Stéphane; Leboyer, Marion; Bellivier, Frank; Etain, Bruno; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Henry, Chantal; Preisig, Martin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Castelao, Enrique; Wright, Adam; Mitchell, Philip B.; Fullerton, Janice M.; Schofield, Peter R.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Medland, Sarah E.; Gordon, Scott D.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Rietschel, Marcella; Liu, Chunyu; Kleinman, Joel E.; Hyde, Thomas M.; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Su, Bing

2016-01-01

Summary Bipolar disorder (BPD) is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for BPD among the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain. Aims We sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on BPD risk by combining data from both BPD genome-wide association study (GWAS) and brain eQTL. Method To detect single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with BPD, we jointly analyzed data from a BPD GWAS (7,481 cases and 9,250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (N=5,775) and cognitive performance (N=342) among healthy subjects. Results Integrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 in 20q11.22 and BPD (Log Bayes Factor=5.48; BPD p-val=5.85×10−5). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and BPD susceptibility (p-val=3.54×10−8). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy subjects. Conclusions Our findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for BPD, highlighting the informativeness of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex diseases such as BPD. PMID:26338991

Impact of a cis-associated gene expression SNP on chromosome 20q11.22 on bipolar disorder susceptibility, hippocampal structure and cognitive performance.

PubMed

Li, Ming; Luo, Xiong-jian; Landén, Mikael; Bergen, Sarah E; Hultman, Christina M; Li, Xiao; Zhang, Wen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Zhang, Chen; Liu, Jiewei; Mattheisen, Manuel; Cichon, Sven; Mühleisen, Thomas W; Degenhardt, Franziska A; Nöthen, Markus M; Schulze, Thomas G; Grigoroiu-Serbanescu, Maria; Li, Hao; Fuller, Chris K; Chen, Chunhui; Dong, Qi; Chen, Chuansheng; Jamain, Stéphane; Leboyer, Marion; Bellivier, Frank; Etain, Bruno; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Henry, Chantal; Preisig, Martin; Kutalik, Zoltán; Castelao, Enrique; Wright, Adam; Mitchell, Philip B; Fullerton, Janice M; Schofield, Peter R; Montgomery, Grant W; Medland, Sarah E; Gordon, Scott D; Martin, Nicholas G; Rietschel, Marcella; Liu, Chunyu; Kleinman, Joel E; Hyde, Thomas M; Weinberger, Daniel R; Su, Bing

2016-02-01

Bipolar disorder is a highly heritable polygenic disorder. Recent enrichment analyses suggest that there may be true risk variants for bipolar disorder in the expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) in the brain. We sought to assess the impact of eQTL variants on bipolar disorder risk by combining data from both bipolar disorder genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and brain eQTL. To detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that influence expression levels of genes associated with bipolar disorder, we jointly analysed data from a bipolar disorder GWAS (7481 cases and 9250 controls) and a genome-wide brain (cortical) eQTL (193 healthy controls) using a Bayesian statistical method, with independent follow-up replications. The identified risk SNP was then further tested for association with hippocampal volume (n = 5775) and cognitive performance (n = 342) among healthy individuals. Integrative analysis revealed a significant association between a brain eQTL rs6088662 on chromosome 20q11.22 and bipolar disorder (log Bayes factor = 5.48; bipolar disorder P = 5.85 × 10(-5)). Follow-up studies across multiple independent samples confirmed the association of the risk SNP (rs6088662) with gene expression and bipolar disorder susceptibility (P = 3.54 × 10(-8)). Further exploratory analysis revealed that rs6088662 is also associated with hippocampal volume and cognitive performance in healthy individuals. Our findings suggest that 20q11.22 is likely a risk region for bipolar disorder; they also highlight the informative value of integrating functional annotation of genetic variants for gene expression in advancing our understanding of the biological basis underlying complex disorders, such as bipolar disorder. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

Failure environment analysis tool applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pack, Ginger L.; Wadsworth, David B.

1993-02-01

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Failure environment analysis tool applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pack, Ginger L.; Wadsworth, David B.

1993-01-01

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Failure environment analysis tool applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pack, Ginger L.; Wadsworth, David B.

1994-01-01

Understanding risks and avoiding failure are daily concerns for the women and men of NASA. Although NASA's mission propels us to push the limits of technology, and though the risks are considerable, the NASA community has instilled within it, the determination to preserve the integrity of the systems upon which our mission and, our employees lives and well-being depend. One of the ways this is being done is by expanding and improving the tools used to perform risk assessment. The Failure Environment Analysis Tool (FEAT) was developed to help engineers and analysts more thoroughly and reliably conduct risk assessment and failure analysis. FEAT accomplishes this by providing answers to questions regarding what might have caused a particular failure; or, conversely, what effect the occurrence of a failure might have on an entire system. Additionally, FEAT can determine what common causes could have resulted in other combinations of failures. FEAT will even help determine the vulnerability of a system to failures, in light of reduced capability. FEAT also is useful in training personnel who must develop an understanding of particular systems. FEAT facilitates training on system behavior, by providing an automated environment in which to conduct 'what-if' evaluation. These types of analyses make FEAT a valuable tool for engineers and operations personnel in the design, analysis, and operation of NASA space systems.

Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Yan, Qinling; Shi, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Xiaodan; Yu, Pengbo; Wu, Jianhong; Xiao, Yanni

2018-01-01

China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution. Few studies have quantified the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. We conducted an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th, 2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behaviour change interventions. Our combined data and modelling analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programme is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Divorce and Death: A Meta-Analysis and Research Agenda for Clinical, Social, and Health Psychology.

PubMed

Sbarra, David A; Law, Rita W; Portley, Robert M

2011-09-01

Divorce is a relatively common stressful life event that is purported to increase risk for all-cause mortality. One problem in the literature on divorce and health is that it is fragmented and spread across many disciplines; most prospective studies of mortality are based in epidemiology and sociology, whereas most mechanistic studies are based in psychology. This review integrates research on divorce and death via meta-analysis and outlines a research agenda for better understanding the potential mechanisms linking marital dissolution and risk for all-cause mortality. Random effects meta-analysis with a sample of 32 prospective studies (involving more than 6.5 million people, 160,000 deaths, and over 755,000 divorces in 11 different countries) revealed a significant increase in risk for early death among separated/divorced adults in comparison to their married counterparts. Men and younger adults evidenced significantly greater risk for early death following marital separation/divorce than did women and older adults. Quantification of the overall effect size linking marital separation/divorce to risk for early death reveals a number of important research questions, and this article discusses what remains to be learned about four plausible mechanisms of action: social selection, resource disruptions, changes in health behaviors, and chronic psychological distress. © Association for Psychological Science 2011.