Using an Integrated, Multi-disciplinary Framework to Support Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) provides the infrastructure to link disparate models and databases seamlessly, giving an assessor the ability to construct an appropriate conceptual site model from a host of modeling choices, so a numbe...

A one health framework for estimating the economic costs of zoonotic diseases on society.

PubMed

Narrod, Clare; Zinsstag, Jakob; Tiongco, Marites

2012-06-01

This article presents an integrated epidemiological and economic framework for assessing zoonoses using a "one health" concept. The framework allows for an understanding of the cross-sector economic impact of zoonoses using modified risk analysis and detailing a range of analytical tools. The goal of the framework is to link the analysis outputs of animal and human disease transmission models, economic impact models and evaluation of risk management options to gain improved understanding of factors affecting the adoption of risk management strategies so that investment planning includes the most promising interventions (or sets of interventions) in an integrated fashion. A more complete understanding of the costs of the disease and the costs and benefits of control measures would promote broader implementation of the most efficient and effective control measures, contributing to improved animal and human health, better livelihood outcomes for the poor and macroeconomic growth.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

2014-01-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation. PMID:24672588

Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training.

PubMed

Cramer, Robert J; Johnson, Shara M; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M; Conroy, Mary Alice

2013-02-01

Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are reviewed. Second, as an extension of these methodological training issues, we integrate empirically- and expert-derived suicide risk assessment competencies from several sources with the goal of streamlining core competencies for training purposes. Finally, a framework for suicide risk assessment training is outlined. The approach employs Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) methodology, an approach commonly utilized in medical competency training. The training modality also proposes the Suicide Competency Assessment Form (SCAF), a training tool evaluating self- and observer-ratings of trainee core competencies. The training framework and SCAF are ripe for empirical evaluation and potential training implementation.

An Integrated Approach for Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düzgün, H. S.; Yücemen, M. S.; Kalaycioglu, H. S.

2009-04-01

The earthquake risk for an urban area has increased over the years due to the increasing complexities in urban environments. The main reasons are the location of major cities in hazard prone areas, growth in urbanization and population and rising wealth measures. In recent years physical examples of these factors are observed through the growing costs of major disasters in urban areas which have stimulated a demand for in-depth evaluation of possible strategies to manage the large scale damaging effects of earthquakes. Understanding and formulation of urban earthquake risk requires consideration of a wide range of risk aspects, which can be handled by developing an integrated approach. In such an integrated approach, an interdisciplinary view should be incorporated into the risk assessment. Risk assessment for an urban area requires prediction of vulnerabilities related to elements at risk in the urban area and integration of individual vulnerability assessments. However, due to complex nature of an urban environment, estimating vulnerabilities and integrating them necessities development of integrated approaches in which vulnerabilities of social, economical, structural (building stock and infrastructure), cultural and historical heritage are estimated for a given urban area over a given time period. In this study an integrated urban earthquake vulnerability assessment framework, which considers vulnerability of urban environment in a holistic manner and performs the vulnerability assessment for the smallest administrative unit, namely at neighborhood scale, is proposed. The main motivation behind this approach is the inability to implement existing vulnerability assessment methodologies for countries like Turkey, where the required data are usually missing or inadequate and decision makers seek for prioritization of their limited resources in risk reduction in the administrative districts from which they are responsible. The methodology integrates socio-economical, structural, coastal, ground condition, organizational vulnerabilities, as well as accessibility to critical services within the framework. The proposed framework has the following eight components: Seismic hazard analysis, soil response analysis, tsunami inundation analysis, structural vulnerability analysis, socio-economic vulnerability analysis, accessibility to critical services, GIS-based integrated vulnerability assessment, and visualization of vulnerabilities in 3D virtual city model The integrated model for various vulnerabilities obtained for the urban area is developed in GIS environment by using individual vulnerability assessments for considered elements at risk and serve for establishing the backbone of the spatial decision support system. The stages followed in the model are: Determination of a common mapping unit for each aspect of urban earthquake vulnerability, formation of a geo-database for the vulnerabilities, evaluation of urban vulnerability based on multi attribute utility theory with various weighting algorithms, mapping of the evaluated integrated earthquake risk in geographic information systems (GIS) in the neighborhood scale. The framework is also applicable to larger geographical mapping scales, for example, the building scale. When illustrating the results in building scale, 3-D visualizations with remote sensing data is used so that decision-makers can easily interpret the outputs. The proposed vulnerability assessment framework is flexible and can easily be applied to urban environments at various geographical scales with different mapping units. The obtained total vulnerability maps for the urban area provide a baseline for the development of risk reduction strategies for the decision makers. Moreover, as several aspects of elements at risk for an urban area is considered through vulnerability analyses, effect on changes in vulnerability conditions on the total can easily be determined. The developed approach also enables decision makers to monitor temporal and spatial changes in the urban environment due to implementation of risk reduction strategies.

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals.

PubMed

Csiszar, Susan A; Meyer, David E; Dionisio, Kathie L; Egeghy, Peter; Isaacs, Kristin K; Price, Paul S; Scanlon, Kelly A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Thomas, Kent; Vallero, Daniel; Bare, Jane C

2016-11-01

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products.

Integration of chemical-specific exposure and pharmacokinetic information with the chemical-agnostic AOP framework to support high throughput risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Application of the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework and high throughput toxicity testing in chemical-specific risk assessment requires reconciliation of chemical concentrations sufficient to trigger a molecular initiating event measured in vitro and at the relevant target ...

A conceptual framework for understanding HIV risk behavior in the context of supporting fertility goals among HIV-serodiscordant couples

PubMed Central

Crankshaw, Tamaryn L.; Matthews, Lynn T.; Giddy, Janet; Kaida, Angela; Ware, Norma C.; Smit, Jennifer A.; Bangsberg, David R.

2013-01-01

Integrated reproductive health services for people living with HIV must address their fertility intentions. For HIV-serodiscordant couples who want to conceive, attempted conception confers a substantial risk of HIV transmission to the uninfected partner. Behavioral and pharmacologic strategies may reduce HIV transmission risk among HIV-serodiscordant couples who seek to conceive. In order to develop effective pharmaco-behavioral programs, it is important to understand and address the contexts surrounding reproductive decision-making; perceived periconception HIV transmission risk; and periconception risk behaviors. We present a conceptual framework to describe the dynamics involved in periconception HIV risk behaviors in a South African setting. We adapt the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skill Model of HIV Preventative Behavior to address the structural, individual and couple-level determinants of safer conception behavior. The framework is intended to identify factors that influence periconception HIV risk behavior among serodiscordant couples, and therefore to guide design and implementation of integrated and effective HIV, reproductive health and family planning services that support reproductive decision-making. PMID:23177680

Harmonised framework for ecological risk assessment of sediments from ports and estuarine zones of North and South Atlantic.

PubMed

Choueri, R B; Cesar, A; Abessa, D M S; Torres, R J; Riba, I; Pereira, C D S; Nascimento, M R L; Morais, R D; Mozeto, A A; DelValls, T A

2010-04-01

This paper presents a harmonised framework of sediment quality assessment and dredging material characterisation for estuaries and port zones of North and South Atlantic. This framework, based on the weight-of-evidence approach, provides a structure and a process for conducting sediment/dredging material assessment that leads to a decision. The main structure consists of "step 1" (examination of available data); "step 2" (chemical characterisation and toxicity assessment); "decision 1" (any chemical level higher than reference values? are sediments toxic?); "step 3" (assessment of benthic community structure); "step 4" (integration of the results); "decision 2" (are sediments toxic or benthic community impaired?); "step 5" (construction of the decision matrix) and "decision 3" (is there environmental risk?). The sequence of assessments may be interrupted when the information obtained is judged to be sufficient for a correct characterisation of the risk posed by the sediments/dredging material. This framework brought novel features compared to other sediment/dredging material risk assessment frameworks: data integration through multivariate analysis allows the identification of which samples are toxic and/or related to impaired benthic communities; it also discriminates the chemicals responsible for negative biological effects; and the framework dispenses the use of a reference area. We demonstrated the successful application of this framework in different port and estuarine zones of the North (Gulf of Cádiz) and South Atlantic (Santos and Paranaguá Estuarine Systems).

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Managing health and safety risks: Implications for tailoring health and safety management system practices.

PubMed

Willmer, D R; Haas, E J

2016-01-01

As national and international health and safety management system (HSMS) standards are voluntarily accepted or regulated into practice, organizations are making an effort to modify and integrate strategic elements of a connected management system into their daily risk management practices. In high-risk industries such as mining, that effort takes on added importance. The mining industry has long recognized the importance of a more integrated approach to recognizing and responding to site-specific risks, encouraging the adoption of a risk-based management framework. Recently, the U.S. National Mining Association led the development of an industry-specific HSMS built on the strategic frameworks of ANSI: Z10, OHSAS 18001, The American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care, and ILO-OSH 2001. All of these standards provide strategic guidance and focus on how to incorporate a plan-do-check-act cycle into the identification, management and evaluation of worksite risks. This paper details an exploratory study into whether practices associated with executing a risk-based management framework are visible through the actions of an organization's site-level management of health and safety risks. The results of this study show ways that site-level leaders manage day-to-day risk at their operations that can be characterized according to practices associated with a risk-based management framework. Having tangible operational examples of day-to-day risk management can serve as a starting point for evaluating field-level risk assessment efforts and their alignment to overall company efforts at effective risk mitigation through a HSMS or other processes.

Risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option.

PubMed

Manap, Norpadzlihatun; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos

2014-10-15

The aim of this study was to develop a risk-based decision-making framework for the selection of sediment dredging option. Descriptions using case studies of the newly integrated, holistic and staged framework were followed. The first stage utilized the historical dredging monitoring data and the contamination level in media data into Ecological Risk Assessment phases, which have been altered for benefits in cost, time and simplicity. How Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) can be used to analyze and prioritize dredging areas based on environmental, socio-economic and managerial criteria was described for the next stage. The results from MCDA will be integrated into Ecological Risk Assessment to characterize the degree of contamination in the prioritized areas. The last stage was later described using these findings and analyzed using MCDA, in order to identify the best sediment dredging option, accounting for the economic, environmental and technical aspects of dredging, which is beneficial for dredging and sediment management industries. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Proactive and Top-Down Approach to Managing Risk at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

Our ultimate goal is to manage risk in a holistic and coherent fashion across the Agency: a) The RIDM process is intended to risk-inform direction-setting decisions. c) The CRM process is intended to manage risk associated with the implementation of baseline performance requirements. Currently we are working on: a) Enhancements to the CRM process. b) Better integration of the RIDM and CRM processes. c) Better integration of institutional risk considerations into RM framework.

Prediction and Informative Risk Factor Selection of Bone Diseases.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Li, Xiaoyi; Ramanathan, Murali; Zhang, Aidong

2015-01-01

With the booming of healthcare industry and the overwhelming amount of electronic health records (EHRs) shared by healthcare institutions and practitioners, we take advantage of EHR data to develop an effective disease risk management model that not only models the progression of the disease, but also predicts the risk of the disease for early disease control or prevention. Existing models for answering these questions usually fall into two categories: the expert knowledge based model or the handcrafted feature set based model. To fully utilize the whole EHR data, we will build a framework to construct an integrated representation of features from all available risk factors in the EHR data and use these integrated features to effectively predict osteoporosis and bone fractures. We will also develop a framework for informative risk factor selection of bone diseases. A pair of models for two contrast cohorts (e.g., diseased patients versus non-diseased patients) will be established to discriminate their characteristics and find the most informative risk factors. Several empirical results on a real bone disease data set show that the proposed framework can successfully predict bone diseases and select informative risk factors that are beneficial and useful to guide clinical decisions.

Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

PubMed

Mishra, Sandeep

2014-08-01

Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Implications for U.S. trade and nonindigenous species risk resulting from increased economic integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

Treesearch

Amanda M. Countryman; Travis Warziniack; Erin Grey

2018-01-01

This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade...

A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

EPA Science Inventory

Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

Cross-species integration of human health and ecological endpoints into risk assessment using the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks

EPA Science Inventory

Exposure to environmental contaminants can influence both human health and ecological endpoints. Chemical risk assessments combine exposure and toxicity data to estimate the likelihood of adverse outcomes for these endpoints, but are rarely conducted in a manner that integrates ...

Understanding consumer health information-seeking behavior from the perspective of the risk perception attitude framework and social support in mobile social media websites.

PubMed

Deng, Zhaohua; Liu, Shan

2017-09-01

This study integrates the risk perception attitude framework and social support to examine factors influencing consumers' intentions to seek health information in mobile social media websites. We develop a research model consisting of four social support dimensions, perceived health risk, health self-efficacy, and health information-seeking intention. A survey is conducted among patients with non-serious conditions. A two-step approach of structural equation modeling is used to test the research model. Among the four dimensions of social support, tangible support and appraisal support significantly influence perceived risk, whereas emotional support and esteem support significantly influence health self-efficacy. Perceived health risk and health self-efficacy significantly influence the health information-seeking behavior intention of consumers. Specifically, health self-efficacy significantly moderates the relationship between perceived risk and behavior intention. This study highlights the integrated effects of social capital and risk perception attitude framework on health information-seeking intention. It examines relationships among perceived health risk, health self-efficacy, and behavior intention in the mobile social media context. The findings help understand effects of social capital factors on perceived health risk and health self-efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gender Affirmation: A Framework for Conceptualizing Risk Behavior among Transgender Women of Color.

PubMed

Sevelius, Jae M

2013-06-01

Experiences of stigma, discrimination, and violence as well as extreme health disparities and high rates of sexual risk behavior and substance use have been well-documented among transgender women of color. Using an intersectional approach and integrating prominent theories from stigma, eating disorders, and HIV-related research, this article offers a new framework for conceptualizing risk behavior among transgender women of color, specifically sexual risk behavior and risky body modification practices. This framework is centered on the concept of 'gender affirmation,' the process by which individuals are affirmed in their gender identity through social interactions. Qualitative data from 22 interviews with transgender women of color from the San Francisco Bay Area in the United States are analyzed and discussed in the context of the gender affirmation framework.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the policy framework of climate change adaptation (CCA). Three main innovations are proposed with respect to the current state of the art: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing risk, (2) to go beyond the estimation direct tangible costs, and (3) to provide an operational solution for decision support to assess risks, impacts and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, compatible with both the DRR and the CCA literatures. As stated above, the proposed framework is the inclusion of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacities) in the process of translating risk into a comprehensive cost matrix considering not only direct tangible costs (damages), but also the three other components deriving from the combination of tangible/intangible and direct/indirect costs. The proposed KIRAF approach is thus expected to provide: 1) an operational basis for multidisciplinary integration; 2) a flexible reference to deal with heterogeneous case studies and potentially various types of hazards; and 3) a means to support the assessment of alternative risk prevention measures including consideration of social and cultural dimensions.

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

PubMed

Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

2015-11-01

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

EPA Science Inventory

A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

76 FR 16587 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-24

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...

Utilization of the Behavior Change Wheel framework to develop a model to improve cardiometabolic screening for people with severe mental illness.

PubMed

Mangurian, Christina; Niu, Grace C; Schillinger, Dean; Newcomer, John W; Dilley, James; Handley, Margaret A

2017-11-14

Individuals with severe mental illness (e.g., schizophrenia, bipolar disorder) die 10-25 years earlier than the general population, primarily from premature cardiovascular disease (CVD). Contributing factors are complex, but include systemic-related factors of poorly integrated primary care and mental health services. Although evidence-based models exist for integrating mental health care into primary care settings, the evidence base for integrating medical care into specialty mental health settings is limited. Such models are referred to as "reverse" integration. In this paper, we describe the application of an implementation science framework in designing a model to improve CVD outcomes for individuals with severe mental illness (SMI) who receive services in a community mental health setting. Using principles from the theory of planned behavior, focus groups were conducted to understand stakeholder perspectives of barriers to CVD risk factor screening and treatment identify potential target behaviors. We then applied results to the overarching Behavior Change Wheel framework, a systematic and theory-driven approach that incorporates the COM-B model (capability, opportunity, motivation, and behavior), to build an intervention to improve CVD risk factor screening and treatment for people with SMI. Following a stepped approach from the Behavior Change Wheel framework, a model to deliver primary preventive care for people that use community mental health settings as their de facto health home was developed. The CRANIUM (cardiometabolic risk assessment and treatment through a novel integration model for underserved populations with mental illness) model focuses on engaging community psychiatrists to expand their scope of practice to become responsible for CVD risk, with significant clinical decision support. The CRANIUM model was designed by integrating behavioral change theory and implementation theory. CRANIUM is feasible to implement, is highly acceptable to, and targets provider behavior change, and is replicable and efficient for helping to integrate primary preventive care services in community mental health settings. CRANIUM can be scaled up to increase CVD preventive care delivery and ultimately improve health outcomes among people with SMI served within a public mental health care system.

Gender Affirmation: A Framework for Conceptualizing Risk Behavior among Transgender Women of Color

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2012-01-01

Experiences of stigma, discrimination, and violence as well as extreme health disparities and high rates of sexual risk behavior and substance use have been well-documented among transgender women of color. Using an intersectional approach and integrating prominent theories from stigma, eating disorders, and HIV-related research, this article offers a new framework for conceptualizing risk behavior among transgender women of color, specifically sexual risk behavior and risky body modification practices. This framework is centered on the concept of ‘gender affirmation,’ the process by which individuals are affirmed in their gender identity through social interactions. Qualitative data from 22 interviews with transgender women of color from the San Francisco Bay Area in the United States are analyzed and discussed in the context of the gender affirmation framework. PMID:23729971

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

49 CFR 192.911 - What are the elements of an integrity management program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...? An operator's initial integrity management program begins with a framework (see § 192.907) and...), by electronic or other means, a copy of the operator's risk analysis or integrity management program... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false What are the elements of an integrity management...

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies.

PubMed

Stone, Vicki; Führ, Martin; Feindt, Peter H; Bouwmeester, Hans; Linkov, Igor; Sabella, Stefania; Murphy, Finbarr; Bizer, Kilian; Tran, Lang; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Fito, Carlos; Andersen, Torben; Anderson, Diana; Bergamaschi, Enrico; Cherrie, John W; Cowan, Sue; Dalemcourt, Jean-Francois; Faure, Michael; Gabbert, Silke; Gajewicz, Agnieszka; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Johnston, Helinor J; Lansdown, Terry C; Linder, Stefan; Marvin, Hans J P; Mullins, Martin; Purnhagen, Kai; Puzyn, Tomasz; Sanchez Jimenez, Araceli; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Streftaris, George; van Tongeren, Martie; Voelcker, Nicolas H; Voyiatzis, George; Yannopoulos, Spyros N; Poortvliet, P Marijn

2017-12-14

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tan, Yu-Mei; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Edwards, Stephen

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of themore » Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.« less

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment

DOE PAGES

Tan, Yu-Mei; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Edwards, Stephen; ...

2018-03-29

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of themore » Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.« less

Working towards an integrated land contamination management framework for Nigeria.

PubMed

Sam, Kabari; Coulon, Frédéric; Prpich, George

2016-11-15

Over the past five decades, Nigeria has developed a number of contaminated land legislations to address the damage caused primarily by oil and gas exploitation activities. Within these legislations exists elements of risk assessment and risk-based corrective action. Despite this progress, we argue that contaminated land management approaches in Nigeria need further development to be able to integrate new scientific information, and to address environmental, economic, and social values. By comparison, advanced contaminated land regimes in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States of America (USA) apply a number of integrative approaches (e.g. sustainability appraisal, liability regime, funding mechanisms, technology demonstration) that enable them to meet the environmental, economic, and social needs of their populations. In comparison, Nigerian governance lacks many of these mechanisms and management of contaminated land is ad hoc. In this paper we propose an integrated risk assessment framework for Nigeria that incorporates the principles of sustainability and stakeholder engagement into the decision-making processes for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management. The integrated approach relies on transparency to promote acceptance and build trust in institutions, and uses stakeholder engagement to address data deficiencies. We conclude this paper with a roadmap for how Nigeria might implement such an integrative approach into their existing contaminated land regulatory system, as well as identify a series of policy priorities that should be addressed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTEGRATION OF HEALTH AND ECOLOIGCAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The World Health Organization's International Programme on Chemical Safety (IPCS), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have developed a collaborative partnership to foster integration; of assessment approa...

Green Is the New Black: The Need for a New Currency That Values Water Resources in Rapidly Developing Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Webster, K. L.; Kreutzweiser, D. P.; Beall, F.

2014-12-01

Canada's boreal forest supports many aquatic ecosystem services (AES) due to the intimate linkage between aquatic systems and their surrounding terrestrial watersheds in forested landscapes. There is an increasing risk to AES because natural development activities (forest management, mining, energy) have resulted in disruptions that deteriorate aquatic ecosystems at local (10s of km2) to regional (100s of km2) scales. These activities are intensifying and expanding, placing at risk the healthy aquatic ecosystems that provide AES and may threaten the continued development of the energy, forest, and mining sectors. Remarkably, we know little about the consequences of these activities on AES. The idea that AES should be explicitly integrated into modern natural resource management regulations is gaining broad acceptance. A major need is the ability to measure cumulative effects and determine thresholds (the points where aquatic ecosystems and their services cannot recover to a desired state within a reasonable time frame) in these cumulative effects. However, there is no single conceptual approach to assessing cumulative effects that is widely accepted by both scientists and managers. We present an integrated science-policy framework that enables the integration of AES into forest management risk assessment and prevention/mitigation strategies. We use this framework to explore the risk of further deterioration of AES by (1) setting risk criteria; (2) using emerging technologies to map process-based indicators representing causes and consequences of risk events to the deterioration of AES; (3) assessing existing prevention and mitigation policies in place to avoid risk events; and (4) identifying priorities for policy change needed to reduce risk event. Ultimately, the success of this framework requires that higher value be placed on AES, and in turn to improve the science and management of the boreal forest.

Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment - Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land.

PubMed

Butt, T E; Javadi, A A; Nunns, M A; Beal, C D

2016-11-01

Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the "what, why, when and how" outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and integrated format, offering a more standardised and unified whole-system approach. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The media and genetically modified foods: evidence in support of social amplification of risk.

PubMed

Frewer, Lynn J; Miles, Susan; Marsh, Roy

2002-08-01

Empirical examinations of the "social amplification of risk" framework are rare, partly because of the difficulties in predicting when conditions likely to result in amplification effects will occur. This means that it is difficult to examine changes in risk perception that are contemporaneous with increases and/or decreases in social or media discussion of the risks associated with a particular risk event. However, the collection of attitude data before, during, and after the increased reporting of the risks of genetically modified food in the United Kingdom (spring 1999) has demonstrated that people's risk perceptions do increase and decrease in line with what might be expected upon examination of the amplification and attenuation mechanisms integral to the framework. Perceptions of benefit, however, appeared to be permanently depressed by negative reporting about genetically modified food. Trust in regulatory institutions with responsibility for protecting the public was not affected. It was concluded that the social amplification of risk framework is a useful framework for beginning to explain the potential impact on risk perceptions of a risk event, particularly if that risk event is presented to the public as a new hazard occurring in a crisis context.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Drenkhan, Fabian; León, Christian

2017-04-01

Driven by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the past years have seen a move from a vulnerability concept of climate change impacts towards a risk framework. Risk is now conceived at the intersection of climate-driven hazard and socioeconomic-driven vulnerability and exposure. The concept of risk so far has been mainly adopted for sudden-onset events. However, for slow-onset and cumulative climate change impacts such as changing water resources there is missing clarity and experience how to apply a risk framework. Research has hardly dealt with the challenge of how to integrate both low and high flow risks in a common framework. Comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate-sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity and inconsistencies represent important limitations. Here we review existing vulnerability and risk assessments of low and high flow water conditions and identify critical conceptual and practical gaps. Based on this, we develop an integrated framework for low and high flow water risks which is applicable to both past and future conditions. The framework explicitly considers a water balance model simulating both water supply and demand on a daily basis. We test and apply this new framework in the highly glacierized Santa River catchment (SRC, Cordillera Blanca, Peru), representative for many developing mountain regions with both low and high flow water risks and poor data availability. In fact, in the SRC, both low and high flow hazards, such as droughts and floods, play a central role especially for agricultural, hydropower, domestic and mining use. During the dry season (austral winter) people are increasingly affected by water scarcity due to shrinking glaciers supplying melt water. On the other hand during the wet season (austral summer) high flow water risks are associated with hazards such as floods and debris flows and high socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure of e. g. infrastructure. Nonetheless, comprehensive water resource risk studies have barely been developed in the SRC and other developing high-mountain regions. To consider all components of risks as well as the economic and social conditions for different processes, a comprehensive risk assessment is needed. The urgency of this matter is emphasized by recent social conflicts in the SRC and the tropical Andes in general, related to prevailing drought conditions in combination with weak state institutions and unequal decision-making as well as differentiated perspectives on low flow versus high flow risks.

Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin

2016-06-01

This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: •more » Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.« less

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy: A vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks

Treesearch

Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy Project Management Team

2006-01-01

The Canadian Wildland Fire Strategy (CWFS) provides a vision for a new, innovative, and integrated approach to wildland fire management in Canada. It was developed under the auspices of the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers and seeks to balance the social, ecological, and economic aspects of wildland fire through a risk management framework that emphasizes hazard...

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.; Shelhamer, M.; Canga, M.

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during exploration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modeled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified, however, this has been in an ad hoc fashion. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioral, vehicle, and organizational aspects of the exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. We will discuss how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information is allowing us to identify and visualize connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized way. We will discuss the applications of the visualizations and insights to research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

A Framework for Analysis of Research Risks and Benefits to Participants in Standard of Care Pragmatic Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Chen, Stephanie C; Kim, Scott Y H

2016-01-01

Background/Aims Standard of care pragmatic clinical trials (SCPCTs) that compare treatments already in use could improve care and reduce cost but there is considerable debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and how to apply informed consent regulations to such trials. We sought to develop a framework integrating the insights from opposing sides of the debate. Methods We developed a formal risk-benefit analysis framework for SCPCTs and then applied it to key provisions of the U.S. federal regulations. Results Our formal framework for SCPCT risk-benefit analysis takes into account three key considerations: the ex ante estimates of risks and benefits of the treatments to be compared in a SCPCT, the allocation ratios of treatments inside and outside a SCPCT, and the significance of some participants receiving a different treatment inside a SCPCT than outside the trial. The framework provides practical guidance on how the research ethics regulations on informed consent should be applied to SCPCTs. Conclusions Our proposed formal model makes explicit the relationship between the concepts used by opposing sides of the debate about the research risks of SCPCTs and can be used to clarify the implications for informed consent. PMID:27365010

Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial wildfire risk assessment tool, developed in response to demands for improved risk-based decision frameworks. The methodology...

Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

PHOTOTOXIC POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBONS IN SEDIMENTS: A MODEL-BASED APPROACH FOR ASSESSING RISK

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past five years we have developed a number of models which will be combined in an integrated framework with chemical-monitoring information to assess the potential for widespread risk of phototoxic PAHs in sediments.

Proposing a Universal Framework for Resilience: Optimizing Risk and Combating Human Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Arunima

2017-04-01

In the recent years we have seen a massive impact of loss created to urban settlements and critical infrastructure as a result of disasters. The disaster risk associates itself vulnerabilities and many complexities which can disrupt the functioning of human society. The uncertain loss created by disasters can present unforeseeable risk which remain unaccounted to human understanding. It is imperative to note that human urbanization and development is correlated with human vulnerabilities and challenges posed by disasters. Disaster risks are aggravated by improper planning of cities, weak framework for urban governance and regulatory regimes and lack of equalities amongst the citizens. The international agenda on disaster risk reduction talks about increasing losses due to disasters associated with development and urbanization. The United Nations announced that the year 1990 was the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In relation to this, the "Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action" was adopted at the first United Nations World Conference on Disaster Reduction. The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission coordinated the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2005 where the Hyogo Framework for Action was adopted. The Hyogo Framework for Action: Building the resilience of communities to disaster was adopted by 168 nations after the massive loss caused by Indian ocean tsunami in 2005. The Hyogo Framework proposes to focus on implementation of risk and reliability system to shield disasters, proposes global scientific and community platform for disaster prevention and mitigation etc. The early warning system and its importance as an effective tool for reduction of human vulnerabilities for disaster management was majorly emphasized. It is imperative to highlight that resilience framework is important in order to minimize cost of disruption caused to critical infrastructure and to strengthen and optimize the decision making skill and platform for a better sustainable society. The resilience framework provides a cross-sector and multi-level analysis to tackle the vulnerabilities which can be caused to essential utilities like power, water, transport and various machineries that are essential for human sustainability. The direction of resilience framework focuses on prevention of damage and disruption of disaster, mitigate the loss caused to human society and provide the best response for disaster resilience. Thus, the basic pillars which are important for the implementation of resilience is proper governance framework and transparency which takes into account various cost and risk analysis. Thus a common and universal framework for resilience is the main requirement for mass accessibility. The aim of resilience framework focuses on universal adaptability, coherence and validation. A mixed method analysis has been undertaken in this research paper which focuses on the following issues: • Legal, Institutional and community framework for integrating resilience framework of global north and global south. • Spatial as well as statistical analysis to structuralize disaster risk and resilient framework for disaster management. • Early warning system and emergency response in a comparative scale to analyse the various models of risk and resilience framework implemented in USA, China, Nepal and India for proposing an integrated resilience strategy.

Software Reviews Since Acquisition Reform - The Artifact Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-01-01

Risk Management OLD NEW Slide 13Acquisition of Software Intensive Systems 2004 – Peter Hantos Single, basic software paradigm Single processor Low...software risk mitigation related trade-offs must be done together Integral Software Engineering Activities Process Maturity and Quality Frameworks Quality

Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

PubMed

Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

2016-01-01

Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

Risk Analysis for Resource Planning Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chueng, Kar-Ming

2008-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a risk management approach that allows planners to quantify the risk and efficiency tradeoff in the presence of uncertainties, and to make forward-looking choices in the development and execution of the plan. Demonstrate a planning and risk analysis framework that tightly integrates mathematical optimization, empirical simulation, and theoretical analysis techniques to solve complex problems.

Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

PubMed

Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

2012-08-07

Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.

Towards a cross-domain interoperable framework for natural hazards and disaster risk reduction information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomas, Robert; Harrison, Matthew; Barredo, José I.; Thomas, Florian; Llorente Isidro, Miguel; Cerba, Otakar; Pfeiffer, Manuela

2014-05-01

The vast amount of information and data necessary for comprehensive hazard and risk assessment presents many challenges regarding the lack of accessibility, comparability, quality, organisation and dissemination of natural hazards spatial data. In order to mitigate these limitations an interoperable framework has been developed in the framework of the development of legally binding Implementing rules of the EU INSPIRE Directive1* aiming at the establishment of the European Spatial Data Infrastructure. The interoperability framework is described in the Data Specification on Natural risk zones - Technical Guidelines (DS) document2* that was finalized and published on 10.12. 2013. This framework provides means for facilitating access, integration, harmonisation and dissemination of natural hazard data from different domains and sources. The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the interoperable framework developed in the DS and highlights the key aspects of the interoperability to the various natural hazards communities. Secondly, the paper "translates" into common language the main features and potentiality of the interoperable framework of the DS for a wider audience of scientists and practitioners in the natural hazards domain. Further in this paper the main five aspects of the interoperable framework will be presented. First, the issue of a common terminology for the natural hazards domain will be addressed. A common data model to facilitate cross domain data integration will follow secondly. Thirdly, the common methodology developed to provide qualitative or quantitative assessments of natural hazards will be presented. Fourthly, the extensible classification schema for natural hazards developed from a literature review and key reference documents from the contributing community of practice will be shown. Finally, the applicability of the interoperable framework for the various stakeholder groups will be also presented. This paper closes discussing open issues and next steps regarding the sustainability and evolution of the interoperable framework and missing aspects such as multi-hazard and multi-risk. --------------- 1*INSPIRE - Infrastructure for spatial information in Europe, http://inspire.ec.europa.eu 2*http://inspire.jrc.ec.europa.eu/documents/Data_Specifications/INSPIRE_DataSpecification_NZ_v3.0.pdf

A critical analysis of the South African Disaster Management Act and Policy Framework.

PubMed

van Niekerk, Dewald

2014-10-01

The promulgation of the South African Disaster Management Act No. 57 of 2002 and the National Disaster Management Policy Framework of 2005 placed South Africa at the international forefront by integrating disaster risk reduction into all spheres of government through a decentralised approach. Yet, good policy and legislation do not necessarily translate into good practice. This paper provides a critical analysis of the Act and Policy Framework. Using qualitative research methods, it analyses the attitudes and perceptions of senior public officials on all levels of government, the private sector and academia. The study finds that one of the weakest aspects of the Act and Framework is the absence of clear guidance to local municipalities. The placement of the disaster risk management function on all tiers of government remains problematic, funding is inadequate and overall knowledge and capacities for disaster risk reduction are insufficient. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

How Does Sexual Minority Stigma “Get Under the Skin”? A Psychological Mediation Framework

PubMed Central

Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.

2009-01-01

Sexual minorities are at increased risk for multiple mental health burdens compared to heterosexuals. The field has identified two distinct determinants of this risk, including group-specific minority stressors and general psychological processes that are common across sexual orientations. The goal of the present paper is to develop a theoretical framework that integrates the important insights from these literatures. The framework postulates that (a) sexual minorities confront increased stress exposure resulting from stigma; (b) this stigma-related stress creates elevations in general emotion dysregulation, social/interpersonal problems, and cognitive processes conferring risk for psychopathology; and (c) these processes in turn mediate the relationship between stigma-related stress and psychopathology. It is argued that this framework can, theoretically, illuminate how stigma adversely affects mental health and, practically, inform clinical interventions. Evidence for the predictive validity of this framework is reviewed, with particular attention paid to illustrative examples from research on depression, anxiety, and alcohol use disorders. PMID:19702379

Understanding the Role of Numeracy in Health: Proposed Theoretical Framework and Practical Insights

PubMed Central

Lipkus, Isaac M.; Peters, Ellen

2009-01-01

Numeracy, that is how facile people are with mathematical concepts and their applications, is gaining importance in medical decision making and risk communication. This paper proposes six critical functions of health numeracy. These functions are integrated into a theoretical framework on health numeracy that has implications for risk-communication and medical-decision-making processes. We examine practical underpinnings for targeted interventions aimed at improving such processes as a function of health numeracy. It is hoped that the proposed functions and theoretical framework will spur more research to determine how an understanding of health numeracy can lead to more effective communication and decision outcomes. PMID:19834054

Integrating Spaceflight Human System Risk Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2016-01-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of human health and performance success during exploration missions as well as to maintain the subsequent long-term health of the crew. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. "Human System Risks" (Risks) have been identified, and approximately 30 are being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

2017-10-01

NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

An Integrated Assessment Framework for land subsidence in Delta cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bucx, T.; van Ruiten, K.; Erkens, G.

2013-12-01

In many delta cities land subsidence exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor of ten. Without change, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other delta (and coastal) cities will sink below sea level. Increased flooding and also other wide¬spread impacts of land subsidence result already in damage of billions of dollars per year to roads, embankments, subsurface infrastructure and housing. Moreover the potential damage caused by increased flood risk is around the same amount of money. A major cause for severe land subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction related to rapid urbanization and population growth. A major rethink is needed to resolve the ';hidden' but urgent threat of subsidence in a multi-sectoral perspective. A comprehensive approach is presented to address land subsidence for more sustainable and resilient urban development. Land subsidence is an issue that involves many policy fields, complex technical aspects and governance. There is a need for an integrated approach in order to manage subsidence and to develop appropriate strategies and measures that are effective and efficient on both the short and long term. Urban (ground)water management, adaptive flood risk management and related spatial planning strategies should be taken into account. This presentation will introduce and illustrate an Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF) for land subsidence that has been developed in the European FP7 project Subcoast. This framework is based on an integrated (multi-sectoral) approach and can be used to gain insight in the complex aspects of subsidence, to raise awareness and to support decision making on appropriate adaptation strategies and measures. The IAF is addressing all aspects of subsidence: from primary causes, vulnerability, impacts and risks towards responses and solutions. It will also take into account the three spatial layers (Occupation, Network and Base layer), governance aspects and several scenarios (economic and/or climate change). Main questions to be addressed in an integrated approach: what are the main causes, how much is the current subsidence rate and what are future scenarios (and interaction with other major environmental issues), where are the vulnerable areas, what are the impacts and risks, how can adverse impacts can be mitigated or compensated for, and who is involved and responsible to act? In five case studies a quick-assessment of land subsidence is performed based on this Integrated Assessment Framework. The case studies involve the following mega-cities: Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans and Bangkok. Results of these case studies will be presented in order to further develop and support a (generic) approach how to deal with subsidence in current and future subsidence-prone areas. Integrated Assessment Framework by Deltares

Guidelines for performing systematic reviews in the development of toxicity factors.

PubMed

Schaefer, Heather R; Myers, Jessica L

2017-12-01

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) developed guidance on conducting systematic reviews during the development of chemical-specific toxicity factors. Using elements from publicly available frameworks, the TCEQ systematic review process was developed in order to supplement the existing TCEQ Guidelines for developing toxicity factors (TCEQ Regulatory Guidance 442). The TCEQ systematic review process includes six steps: 1) Problem Formulation; 2) Systematic Literature Review and Study Selection; 3) Data Extraction; 4) Study Quality and Risk of Bias Assessment; 5) Evidence Integration and Endpoint Determination; and 6) Confidence Rating. This document provides guidance on conducting a systematic literature review and integrating evidence from different data streams when developing chemical-specific reference values (ReVs) and unit risk factors (URFs). However, this process can also be modified or expanded to address other questions that would benefit from systematic review practices. The systematic review and evidence integration framework can improve regulatory decision-making processes, increase transparency, minimize bias, improve consistency between different risk assessments, and further improve confidence in toxicity factor development. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

PubMed

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks to advance cumulative risk assessment by integrating human health and ecological endpoints

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating risk of adverse outcomes from chemical exposure is essential for understanding the impacts of environmental contaminants. While human health outcomes are of primary concern and are often the focus of risk assessments, important non-human species are also exposed to co...

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

PubMed

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Risk-based requirements management framework with applications to assurance cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, D.; Eyster, C.

The current regulatory approach for assuring device safety primarily focuses on compliance with prescriptive safety regulations and relevant safety standards. This approach, however, does not always lead to a safe system design even though safety regulations and standards have been met. In the medical device industry, several high profile recalls involving infusion pumps have prompted the regulatory agency to reconsider how device safety should be managed, reviewed and approved. An assurance case has been cited as a promising tool to address this growing concern. Assurance cases have been used in safety-critical systems for some time. Most assurance cases, if not all, in literature today are developed in an ad hoc fashion, independent from risk management and requirement development. An assurance case is a resource-intensive endeavor that requires additional effort and documentation from equipment manufacturers. Without a well-organized requirements infrastructure in place, such “ additional effort” can be substantial, to the point where the cost of adoption outweighs the benefit of adoption. In this paper, the authors present a Risk-Based Requirements and Assurance Management (RBRAM) methodology. The RBRAM is an elaborate framework that combines Risk-Based Requirements Management (RBRM) with assurance case methods. Such an integrated framework can help manufacturers leverage an existing risk management to present a comprehensive assurance case with minimal additional effort while providing a supplementary means to reexamine the integrity of the system design in terms of the mission objective. Although the example used is from the medical industry, the authors believe that the RBRAM methodology underlines the fundamental principle of risk management, and offers a simple, yet effective framework applicable to aerospace industry, perhaps, to any industry.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as

Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment Using Near-Field Human Exposure Modeling and High-Throughput Tools for Chemicals

EPA Science Inventory

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include n...

Mapping intra-urban transmission risk of dengue fever with big hourly cellphone data.

PubMed

Mao, Liang; Yin, Ling; Song, Xiaoqing; Mei, Shujiang

2016-10-01

Cellphone tracking has been recently integrated into risk assessment of disease transmission, because travel behavior of disease carriers can be depicted in unprecedented details. Still in its infancy, such an integration has been limited to: 1) risk assessment only at national and provincial scales, where intra-urban human movements are neglected, and 2) using irregularly logged cellphone data that miss numerous user movements. Furthermore, few risk assessments have considered positional uncertainty of cellphone data. This study proposed a new framework for mapping intra-urban disease risk with regularly logged cellphone tracking data, taking the dengue fever in Shenzhen city as an example. Hourly tracking records of 5.85 million cellphone users, combined with the random forest classification and mosquito activities, were utilized to estimate the local transmission risk of dengue fever and the importation risk through travels. Stochastic simulations were further employed to quantify the uncertainty of risk. The resultant maps suggest targeted interventions to maximally reduce dengue cases exported to other places, as well as appropriate interventions to contain risk in places that import them. Given the popularity of cellphone use in urbanized areas, this framework can be adopted by other cities to design spatio-temporally resolved programs for disease control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing Corporate Risk through Better Knowledge Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neef, Dale

2005-01-01

Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…

Prototype development of a web-based participative decision support platform in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

This paper discusses the proposed background architecture and prototype development of an internet-based decision support system (DSS) in the field of natural hazards and risk management using open-source geospatial software and web technologies. It is based on a three-tier, client-server architecture with the support of boundless (opengeo) framework and its client side SDK application environment using customized gxp components and data utility classes. The main purpose of the system is to integrate the workflow of risk management systematically with the diverse involvement of stakeholders from different organizations dealing with natural hazards and risk for evaluation of management measures through the active online participation approach. It aims to develop an adaptive user friendly, web-based environment that allows the users to set up risk management strategies based on actual context and data by integrating web-GIS and DSS functionality associated with process flow and other visualization tools. Web-GIS interface has been integrated within the DSS to deliver maps and provide certain geo-processing capabilities on the web, which can be easily accessible and shared by different organizations located in case study sites of the project. This platform could be envisaged not only as a common web-based platform for the centralized sharing of data such as hazard maps, elements at risk maps and additional information but also to ensure an integrated platform of risk management where the users could upload data, analyze risk and identify possible alternative scenarios for risk reduction especially for floods and landslides, either quantitatively or qualitatively depending on the risk information provided by the stakeholders in case study regions. The level of involvement, access to and interaction with the provided functionality of the system varies depending on the roles and responsibilities of the stakeholders, for example, only the experts (planners, geological services, etc.) can have access to the alternative definition component to formulate the risk reduction measures. The development of such a participative platform would finally lead to an integrated risk management approach highlighting the needs to deal with involved experts and civil society in the decision-making process for evaluation of risk management measures through the active participation approach. The system will be applied and evaluated in four case study areas of the CHANGES project in Europe: Romania, North Eastern Italy, French Alps and Poland. However, the framework of the system is designed in a generic way so as to be applicable in other regions to achieve the high adaptability and flexibility of the system. The research has been undertaken as a part of the CHANGES project funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program.

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment.

PubMed

Linkov, Igor; Fox-Lent, Cate; Read, Laura; Allen, Craig R; Arnott, James C; Bellini, Emanuele; Coaffee, Jon; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Hatfield, Kirk; Hyde, Iain; Hynes, William; Jovanovic, Aleksandar; Kasperson, Roger; Katzenberger, John; Keys, Patrick W; Lambert, James H; Moss, Richard; Murdoch, Peter S; Palma-Oliveira, Jose; Pulwarty, Roger S; Sands, Dale; Thomas, Edward A; Tye, Mari R; Woods, David

2018-04-25

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier framework for risk assessment. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated into the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience are still lacking. Our proposed framework consists of tiers by which analysts can select resilience assessment and decision support tools to inform associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. The resilience management framework proposed is not intended to supplant either risk management or the many existing efforts of resilience quantification method development, but instead provide a guide to selecting tools that are appropriate for the given analytic need. The goal of this tiered approach is to intentionally parallel the tiered approach used in regulatory contexts so that resilience assessment might be more easily and quickly integrated into existing structures and with existing policies. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

A Framework for Incorporating Patient Preferences Regarding Benefits and Risks into Regulatory Assessment of Medical Technologies.

PubMed

Ho, Martin; Saha, Anindita; McCleary, K Kimberly; Levitan, Bennett; Christopher, Stephanie; Zandlo, Kristen; Braithwaite, R Scott; Hauber, A Brett

In response to 2012 guidance in which the US Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH) stated the importance of patient-centric measures in regulatory benefit-risk assessments, the Medical Device Innovation Consortium (MDIC) initiated a project. The project was used to develop a framework to help the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and industry sponsors understand how patient preferences regarding benefit and risk might be integrated into the review of innovative medical devices. A public-private partnership of experts from medical device industry, government, academia and non-profits collaborated on development of the MDIC patient centered benefit-risk framework. The MDIC Framework examines what patient preference information is and the potential use and value of patient preference information in the regulatory process and across the product development life cycle. The MDIC Framework also includes a catalog of patient preference assessment methods and an agenda for future research to advance the field. This article discusses key concepts in patient preference assessment of particular importance for regulators and researchers that are addressed in the MDIC Framework for patient centered benefit-risk assessment as well as the unique public-private collaboration that led its development. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Joe Scott; Don Helmbrecht; Dave E. Calkin

2013-01-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails...

Incorporating Social Determinants into a Groundwater Risk Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M.; Allen, D. M.; Journeay, M.; Korteling, B.

2009-12-01

The remediation of polluted groundwater is often very costly, therefore water managers utilize various proactive measures, such as wellhead protection planning, to prevent contamination events. With limited available resources, it is essential to prioritize where these measures are introduced; systematic and integrated methodologies of assessing risk to groundwater can be utilized for this prioritization. To quantify the resistance of the physical system to pollution, Aquifer Vulnerability is commonly mapped for the area of interest. This information is useful for focusing monitoring efforts and identifying data gaps, but is a relative measure of contaminant risk. To more accurately assess the probability of contamination, an inventory of hazards can be integrated with intrinsic vulnerability of the physical system. This Threat indicator links land-use with chemicals and quantifies the risk based on the toxicity and environmental fate of these substances. Local knowledge of the quantity stored and likelihood of release can be utilized to further assess these threats. Both of these steps form part of an existing frameworks for assessing risk to groundwater. In this study, a groundwater risk framework is developed and tested in two study areas; Pender Island and the Lower Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Canada. Enhancements of a basic groundwater risk framework include not only incorporating points sources such as septic systems, landfills and fuel storage, but also various social determinants of risk. These social determinants include the Resistance of a community, which represents the planning and protection initiatives designed to safeguard the resource. These include items such as land-use planning that consider groundwater vulnerability and best management practices enforced by local governments. The ability to recover following an event is the Capacity of a community; indicators include the presence or absence of spill response plans, treatment systems or an alternative supply of water. The determinant of Loss quantifies the financial impact of this work. This indicator may be altered in future applications to include loss associated with human health and/or that stemming from a reduction in ecosystem health.

Assessment of ecotoxicological risks related to depositing dredged materials from canals in northern France on soil.

PubMed

Perrodin, Yves; Babut, Marc; Bedell, Jean-Philippe; Bray, Marc; Clement, Bernard; Delolme, Cécile; Devaux, Alain; Durrieu, Claude; Garric, Jeanne; Montuelle, Bernard

2006-08-01

The implementation of an ecological risk assessment framework is presented for dredged material deposits on soil close to a canal and groundwater, and tested with sediment samples from canals in northern France. This framework includes two steps: a simplified risk assessment based on contaminant concentrations and a detailed risk assessment based on toxicity bioassays and column leaching tests. The tested framework includes three related assumptions: (a) effects on plants (Lolium perenne L.), (b) effects on aquatic organisms (Escherichia coli, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Ceriodaphnia dubia, and Xenopus laevis) and (c) effects on groundwater contamination. Several exposure conditions were tested using standardised bioassays. According to the specific dredged material tested, the three assumptions were more or less discriminatory, soil and groundwater pollution being the most sensitive. Several aspects of the assessment procedure must now be improved, in particular assessment endpoint design for risks to ecosystems (e.g., integration of pollutant bioaccumulation), bioassay protocols and column leaching test design.

Health risk in the context of climate change and adaptation - Concept and mapping as an integrated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kienberger, S.; Notenbaert, A.; Zeil, P.; Bett, B.; Hagenlocher, M.; Omolo, A.

2012-04-01

Climate change has been stated as being one of the greatest challenges to global health in the current century. Climate change impacts on human health and the socio-economic and related poverty consequences are however still poorly understood. While epidemiological issues are strongly coupled with environmental and climatic parameters, the social and economic circumstances of populations might be of equal or even greater importance when trying to identify vulnerable populations and design appropriate and well-targeted adaptation measures. The inter-linkage between climate change, human health risk and socio-economic impacts remains an important - but largely outstanding - research field. We present an overview on how risk is traditionally being conceptualised in the human health domain and reflect critically on integrated approaches as being currently used in the climate change context. The presentation will also review existing approaches, and how they can be integrated towards adaptation tools. Following this review, an integrated risk concept is being presented, which has been currently adapted under the EC FP7 research project (HEALTHY FUTURES; http://www.healthyfutures.eu/). In this approach, health risk is not only defined through the disease itself (as hazard) but also by the inherent vulnerability of the system, population or region under study. It is in fact the interaction of environment and society that leads to the development of diseases and the subsequent risk of being negatively affected by it. In this conceptual framework vulnerability is being attributed to domains of lack of resilience as well as underlying preconditions determining susceptibilities. To fulfil a holistic picture vulnerability can be associated to social, economic, environmental, institutional, cultural and physical dimensions. The proposed framework also establishes the important nexus to adaptation and how different measures can be related to avoid disease outbreaks, reduce vulnerability in order to lower health risks and disease impacts. The proposed framework explains the generic concepts of disease hazard, vulnerability, risk and its connections. It can be applied to many different diseases and implemented in different ways. Statistical or dynamic disease models integrating future climate projections can - for example - be combined with forecast models. These can be evaluated against different socio-economic development pathways and feed into decisions support systems with an ultimate aim of designing the most appropriate risk reduction strategies. The paper will present first preliminary results on the mapping of vulnerability for the Eastern African region, including diseases such as Malaria, Schistosomiasis and Rift Valley Fever and conclude with current research challenges and how they will be addressed within the HEALTHY FUTURES project.

Evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimisation measures: the application of a conceptual framework to Danish real-world dabigatran data.

PubMed

Nyeland, Martin Erik; Laursen, Mona Vestergaard; Callréus, Torbjörn

2017-06-01

For both marketing authorization holders and regulatory authorities, evaluating the effectiveness of risk minimization measures is now an integral part of pharmacovigilance in the European Union. The overall aim of activities in this area is to assess the performance of risk minimization measures implemented in order to ensure a positive benefit-risk balance in patients treated with a medicinal product. Following a review of the relevant literature, we developed a conceptual framework consisting of four domains (data, knowledge, behaviour and outcomes) intended for the evaluation of risk minimization measures put into practice in the Danish health-care system. For the implementation of the framework, four classes of monitoring variables can be named and defined: patient descriptors, performance-related indicators of knowledge, behaviour and outcomes. We reviewed the features of the framework when applied to historical, real-world data following the introduction of dabigatran in Denmark for the prophylactic treatment of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The application of the framework provided useful graphical displays and an opportunity for a statistical evaluation (interrupted time series analysis) of a regulatory intervention. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2016-06-25

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) ismore » essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

PubMed Central

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management system, e.g. focused on standards for individual pollutants and with separate goals for air toxics and ambient pollutants. However, additional improvements may be possible if goals and actions are defined in terms of risk metrics that are comparable across criteria pollutants and air toxics (hazardous air pollutants), and that encompass both human health and ecological risks. PMID:21209847

A framework for analysis of research risks and benefits to participants in standard of care pragmatic clinical trials.

PubMed

Chen, Stephanie C; Kim, Scott Yh

2016-12-01

Standard of care pragmatic clinical trials that compare treatments already in use could improve care and reduce costs, but there is considerable debate about the research risks of standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and how to apply informed consent regulations to such trials. We sought to develop a framework integrating the insights from opposing sides of the debate. We developed a formal risk-benefit analysis framework for standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and then applied it to key provisions of the US federal regulations. Our formal framework for standard of care pragmatic clinical trial risk-benefit analysis takes into account three key considerations: the ex ante estimates of risks and benefits of the treatments to be compared in a standard of care pragmatic clinical trial, the allocation ratios of treatments inside and outside such a trial, and the significance of some participants receiving a different treatment inside a trial than outside the trial. The framework provides practical guidance on how the research ethics regulations on informed consent should be applied to standard of care pragmatic clinical trials. Our proposed formal model makes explicit the relationship between the concepts used by opposing sides of the debate about the research risks of standard of care pragmatic clinical trials and can be used to clarify the implications for informed consent. © The Author(s) 2016.

Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Riancho, P.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Abad, S.; González, M.; Larreynaga, J.; Gavidia, F.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Medina, R.

2013-12-01

Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of risk reduction strategies for tsunami-prone areas. This paper presents an integral framework for the formulation of tsunami evacuation plans based on tsunami vulnerability assessment and evacuation modelling. This framework considers (i) the hazard aspects (tsunami flooding characteristics and arrival time), (ii) the characteristics of the exposed area (people, shelters and road network), (iii) the current tsunami warning procedures and timing, (iv) the time needed to evacuate the population, and (v) the identification of measures to improve the evacuation process. The proposed methodological framework aims to bridge between risk assessment and risk management in terms of tsunami evacuation, as it allows for an estimation of the degree of evacuation success of specific management options, as well as for the classification and prioritization of the gathered information, in order to formulate an optimal evacuation plan. The framework has been applied to the El Salvador case study, demonstrating its applicability to site-specific response times and population characteristics.

How the Adoption of the Big-Data Paradigm Affects the Key Factors That Influence the Effectiveness of an Information Assurance (IA) Framework: A Multiple-Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Apple, Benjamin G.

2017-01-01

This qualitative study identified those factors that influence the perceived effectiveness of traditional IA control frameworks. The key factors examined in this study are risk management, governance, access control, privacy protection, integrity, availability, reliability, and usability. The researcher endeavored to determine how the…

Integrating Prospective Longitudinal Data: Modeling Personality and Health in the Terman Life Cycle and Hawaii Longitudinal Studies

PubMed Central

Kern, Margaret L.; Hampson, Sarah E.; Goldberg, Lewis R.; Friedman, Howard S.

2013-01-01

The present study used a collaborative framework to integrate two long-term prospective studies: the Terman Life Cycle Study and the Hawaii Personality and Health Longitudinal Study. Using a five-factor personality-trait framework, teacher assessments of child personality were rationally and empirically aligned to establish similar factor structures across samples. Comparable items related to adult self-rated health, education, and alcohol use were harmonized, and data were pooled on harmonized items. A structural model was estimated, allowing paths to differ by sample. Harmonized child personality factors were then used to examine markers of physiological dysfunction in the Hawaii sample and mortality risk in the Terman sample. Harmonized conscientiousness predicted less physiological dysfunction in the Hawaii sample and lower mortality risk in the Terman sample. These results illustrate how collaborative, integrative work with multiple samples offers the exciting possibility that samples from different cohorts and ages can be linked together to directly test lifespan theories of personality and health. PMID:23231689

Cumulative risk assessment for combined health effects from chemical and nonchemical stressors.

PubMed

Sexton, Ken; Linder, Stephen H

2011-12-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks.

Cumulative Risk Assessment for Combined Health Effects From Chemical and Nonchemical Stressors

PubMed Central

Linder, Stephen H.

2011-01-01

Cumulative risk assessment is a science policy tool for organizing and analyzing information to examine, characterize, and possibly quantify combined threats from multiple environmental stressors. We briefly survey the state of the art regarding cumulative risk assessment, emphasizing challenges and complexities of moving beyond the current focus on chemical mixtures to incorporate nonchemical stressors, such as poverty and discrimination, into the assessment paradigm. Theoretical frameworks for integrating nonchemical stressors into cumulative risk assessments are discussed, the impact of geospatial issues on interpreting results of statistical analyses is described, and four assessment methods are used to illustrate the diversity of current approaches. Prospects for future progress depend on adequate research support as well as development and verification of appropriate analytic frameworks. PMID:21551386

A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

2015-04-01

Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation expansion; and change in energy prices. Such risk-based analysis demonstrates relative reduction/increase of risk associated with management and policy decisions and allow decision makers to explore the relative importance of policy versus natural water supply change in a water resources system.

The ties that bind: an integrative framework of physician-hospital alignment

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Alignment between physicians and hospitals is of major importance to the health care sector. Two distinct approaches to align the medical staff with the hospital have characterized previous research. The first approach, economic integration, is rooted in the economic literature, in which alignment is realized by financial means. The second approach, noneconomic integration, represents a sociological perspective emphasizing the cooperative nature of their relationship. Discussion Empirical studies and management theory (agency theory and social exchange theory) are used to increase holistic understanding of physician hospital alignment. On the one hand, noneconomic integration is identified as a means to realize a cooperative relationship. On the other hand, economic integration is studied as a way to align financial incentives. The framework is developed around two key antecedent factors which play an important role in aligning the medical staff. First, provider financial risk bearing is identified as a driving force towards closer integration. Second, organizational trust is believed to be important in explaining the causal relation between noneconomic and economic integration. Summary Hospital financial risk bearing creates a greater need for closer cooperation with the medical staff and alignment of financial incentives. Noneconomic integration lies at the very basis of alignment. It contributes directly to alignment through the norm of reciprocity and indirectly by building trust with the medical staff, laying the foundation for alignment of financial incentives. PMID:21324128

The ties that bind: an integrative framework of physician-hospital alignment.

PubMed

Trybou, Jeroen; Gemmel, Paul; Annemans, Lieven

2011-02-15

Alignment between physicians and hospitals is of major importance to the health care sector. Two distinct approaches to align the medical staff with the hospital have characterized previous research. The first approach, economic integration, is rooted in the economic literature, in which alignment is realized by financial means. The second approach, noneconomic integration, represents a sociological perspective emphasizing the cooperative nature of their relationship. Empirical studies and management theory (agency theory and social exchange theory) are used to increase holistic understanding of physician hospital alignment. On the one hand, noneconomic integration is identified as a means to realize a cooperative relationship. On the other hand, economic integration is studied as a way to align financial incentives. The framework is developed around two key antecedent factors which play an important role in aligning the medical staff. First, provider financial risk bearing is identified as a driving force towards closer integration. Second, organizational trust is believed to be important in explaining the causal relation between noneconomic and economic integration. Hospital financial risk bearing creates a greater need for closer cooperation with the medical staff and alignment of financial incentives. Noneconomic integration lies at the very basis of alignment. It contributes directly to alignment through the norm of reciprocity and indirectly by building trust with the medical staff, laying the foundation for alignment of financial incentives.

Ship Maintenance Processes with Collaborative Product Lifecycle Management and 3D Terrestrial Laser Scanning Tools: Reducing Costs and Increasing Productivity

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-30

developed the Knowledge Value Added + Systems Dynamics + Integrated Risk Management (KVA+SD+IRM) valuation framework to address these issues. KVA+SD...SD+IRM framework is used to quantify process cost savings and the potential benefits of selecting collab-PLM+3D TLS technology in the ship SHIPMAIN...The first section of this paper explicates the KVA+SD+IRM framework . In section two, a description of the SHIPMAIN program is provided. The third

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

A framework for understanding risk perception, explored from the perspective of the water practitioner.

PubMed

Dobbie, Meredith Frances; Brown, Rebekah Ruth

2014-02-01

Sustainable urban water systems are likely to be hybrids of centralized and decentralized infrastructure, managed as an integrated system in water-sensitive cities. The technology for many of these systems is available. However, social and institutional barriers, which can be understood as deeply embedded risk perceptions, have impeded their implementation. Risk perceptions within the water sector are often unrecognized or unacknowledged, despite their role in risk management generally in informing value judgments and specifically in ranking risks to achieve management objectives. There has been very little examination of the role of these risk perceptions in advancing more sustainable water supply management through the adoption of alternative sources. To address this gap, this article presents a framework that can be used as a tool for understanding risk perceptions. The framework is built on the relational theory of risk and presents the range of human phenomena that might influence the perception of an "object at risk" in relation to a "risk object." It has been synthesized from a critical review of theoretical, conceptual, and empirical studies of perception broadly and risk perception specifically, and interpreted in relation to water practitioners. For a water practitioner, the risk object might be an alternative water system, a component, a process, or a technology, and the object at risk could be public or environmental health, profitability, or professional reputation. This framework has two important functions: to allow practitioners to understand their own and others' risk perceptions, which might differ, and to inform further empirical research. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Reducing Risk in CO2 Sequestration: A Framework for Integrated Monitoring of Basin Scale Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, C. J.; Haidari, A. S.; McRae, G. J.

2009-12-01

Geological sequestration of CO2 is an option for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Technical ability to safely store CO2 in the subsurface has been demonstrated through pilot projects and a long history of enhanced oil recovery and acid gas disposal operations. To address climate change, current injection operations must be scaled up by a factor of 100, raising issues of safety and security. Monitoring and verification is an essential component in ensuring safe operations and managing risk. Monitoring provides assurance that CO2 is securely stored in the subsurface, and the mechanisms governing transport and storage are well understood. It also provides an early warning mechanism for identification of anomalies in performance, and a means for intervention and remediation through the ability to locate the CO2. Through theoretical studies, bench scale experiments and pilot tests, a number of technologies have demonstrated their ability to monitor CO2 in the surface and subsurface. Because the focus of these studies has been to demonstrate feasibility, individual techniques have not been integrated to provide a more robust method for monitoring. Considering the large volumes required for injection, size of the potential footprint, length of time a project must be monitored and uncertainty, operational considerations of cost and risk must balance safety and security. Integration of multiple monitoring techniques will reduce uncertainty in monitoring injected CO2, thereby reducing risk. We present a framework for risk management of large scale injection through model based monitoring network design. This framework is applied to monitoring CO2 in a synthetic reservoir where there is uncertainty in the underlying permeability field controlling fluid migration. Deformation and seismic data are used to track plume migration. A modified Ensemble Kalman filter approach is used to estimate flow properties by jointly assimilating flow and geomechanical observations. Issues of risk, cost and uncertainty are considered.

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Feather, Martin; Rutledge, Peter; Sen, Dev; Youngblood, Robert

2015-01-01

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework.

PubMed

Coleman, Susanne; Nixon, Jane; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos M G A; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees W J; Nelson, E Andrea

2014-10-01

This paper discusses the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and proposes a new pressure ulcer conceptual framework. Recent work to develop and validate a new evidence-based pressure ulcer risk assessment framework was undertaken. This formed part of a Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research. The foundation for the risk assessment component incorporated a systematic review and a consensus study that highlighted the need to propose a new conceptual framework. Discussion Paper. The new conceptual framework links evidence from biomechanical, physiological and epidemiological evidence, through use of data from a systematic review (search conducted March 2010), a consensus study (conducted December 2010-2011) and an international expert group meeting (conducted December 2011). A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework incorporating key physiological and biomechanical components and their impact on internal strains, stresses and damage thresholds is proposed. Direct and key indirect causal factors suggested in a theoretical causal pathway are mapped to the physiological and biomechanical components of the framework. The new proposed conceptual framework provides the basis for understanding the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and has the potential to influence risk assessment guidance and practice. It could also be used to underpin future research to explore the role of individual risk factors conceptually and operationally. By integrating existing knowledge from epidemiological, physiological and biomechanical evidence, a theoretical causal pathway and new conceptual framework are proposed with potential implications for practice and research. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework

PubMed Central

Coleman, Susanne; Nixon, Jane; Keen, Justin; Wilson, Lyn; McGinnis, Elizabeth; Dealey, Carol; Stubbs, Nikki; Farrin, Amanda; Dowding, Dawn; Schols, Jos MGA; Cuddigan, Janet; Berlowitz, Dan; Jude, Edward; Vowden, Peter; Schoonhoven, Lisette; Bader, Dan L; Gefen, Amit; Oomens, Cees WJ; Nelson, E Andrea

2014-01-01

Aim This paper discusses the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and proposes a new pressure ulcer conceptual framework. Background Recent work to develop and validate a new evidence-based pressure ulcer risk assessment framework was undertaken. This formed part of a Pressure UlceR Programme Of reSEarch (RP-PG-0407-10056), funded by the National Institute for Health Research. The foundation for the risk assessment component incorporated a systematic review and a consensus study that highlighted the need to propose a new conceptual framework. Design Discussion Paper. Data Sources The new conceptual framework links evidence from biomechanical, physiological and epidemiological evidence, through use of data from a systematic review (search conducted March 2010), a consensus study (conducted December 2010–2011) and an international expert group meeting (conducted December 2011). Implications for Nursing A new pressure ulcer conceptual framework incorporating key physiological and biomechanical components and their impact on internal strains, stresses and damage thresholds is proposed. Direct and key indirect causal factors suggested in a theoretical causal pathway are mapped to the physiological and biomechanical components of the framework. The new proposed conceptual framework provides the basis for understanding the critical determinants of pressure ulcer development and has the potential to influence risk assessment guidance and practice. It could also be used to underpin future research to explore the role of individual risk factors conceptually and operationally. Conclusion By integrating existing knowledge from epidemiological, physiological and biomechanical evidence, a theoretical causal pathway and new conceptual framework are proposed with potential implications for practice and research. PMID:24684197

Incorporating Multifaceted Mental Health Prevention Services in Community Sectors-of-Care

PubMed Central

Gewirtz, Abigail H.; August, Gerald J.

2017-01-01

This article proposes a framework for embedding prevention services into community sectors-of-care. Community sectors-of-care include both formal and grassroots organizations distributed throughout a community that provide various resources and services to at-risk children and their families. Though the child population served by these organizations is often at elevated risk for mental health problems by virtue of children's exposure to difficult life circumstances (poverty, maltreatment, homelessness, domestic violence, etc) these children face many barriers to accessing evidence-based prevention or treatment services. We review evidence and propose a framework for integrating prevention services into community sectors-of-care that serve high-risk children and families. PMID:18196457

Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion.

PubMed

Wu, Desheng; Chen, Shuzhen

2017-08-01

Benchmarking a credible discount rate is of crucial importance in natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) and restoration evaluation. This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service-specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long-term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side-effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service-specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Application of Framework for Integrating Safety, Security and Safeguards (3Ss) into the Design Of Used Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Badwan, Faris M.; Demuth, Scott F

Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle Research and Development develops options to the current commercial fuel cycle management strategy to enable the safe, secure, economic, and sustainable expansion of nuclear energy while minimizing proliferation risks by conducting research and development focused on used nuclear fuel recycling and waste management to meet U.S. needs. Used nuclear fuel is currently stored onsite in either wet pools or in dry storage systems, with disposal envisioned in interim storage facility and, ultimately, in a deep-mined geologic repository. The safe management and disposition of used nuclear fuel and/or nuclear waste is amore » fundamental aspect of any nuclear fuel cycle. Integrating safety, security, and safeguards (3Ss) fully in the early stages of the design process for a new nuclear facility has the potential to effectively minimize safety, proliferation, and security risks. The 3Ss integration framework could become the new national and international norm and the standard process for designing future nuclear facilities. The purpose of this report is to develop a framework for integrating the safety, security and safeguards concept into the design of Used Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility (UNFSF). The primary focus is on integration of safeguards and security into the UNFSF based on the existing Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approach to addressing the safety/security interface (10 CFR 73.58 and Regulatory Guide 5.73) for nuclear power plants. The methodology used for adaptation of the NRC safety/security interface will be used as the basis for development of the safeguards /security interface and later will be used as the basis for development of safety and safeguards interface. Then this will complete the integration cycle of safety, security, and safeguards. The overall methodology for integration of 3Ss will be proposed, but only the integration of safeguards and security will be applied to the design of the UNFSF. The framework for integration of safeguards and security into the UNFSF will include 1) identification of applicable regulatory requirements, 2) selection of a common system that share dual safeguard and security functions, 3) development of functional design criteria and design requirements for the selected system, 4) identification and integration of the dual safeguards and security design requirements, and 5) assessment of the integration and potential benefit.« less

Framework for assessing causality of air pollution-related health effects for reviews of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

PubMed

Owens, Elizabeth Oesterling; Patel, Molini M; Kirrane, Ellen; Long, Thomas C; Brown, James; Cote, Ila; Ross, Mary A; Dutton, Steven J

2017-08-01

To inform regulatory decisions on the risk due to exposure to ambient air pollution, consistent and transparent communication of the scientific evidence is essential. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) develops the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), which contains evaluations of the policy-relevant science on the effects of criteria air pollutants and conveys critical science judgments to inform decisions on the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. This article discusses the approach and causal framework used in the ISAs to evaluate and integrate various lines of scientific evidence and draw conclusions about the causal nature of air pollution-induced health effects. The framework has been applied to diverse pollutants and cancer and noncancer effects. To demonstrate its flexibility, we provide examples of causality judgments on relationships between health effects and pollutant exposures, drawing from recent ISAs for ozone, lead, carbon monoxide, and oxides of nitrogen. U.S. EPA's causal framework has increased transparency by establishing a structured process for evaluating and integrating various lines of evidence and uniform approach for determining causality. The framework brings consistency and specificity to the conclusions in the ISA, and the flexibility of the framework makes it relevant for evaluations of evidence across media and health effects. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Annual Plan - Fiscal Year 2009

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Includes Strategic Plan Update and Draft Plans for Oversight of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Based Upon the Enterprise Risk Management Integrated Framework Model Developed by the Committee of Sponsoring Orgs of the Treadway Commission

Frameworks for risk communication and disease management: the case of Lyme disease and countryside users

PubMed Central

Quine, Christopher P.; Barnett, Julie; Dobson, Andrew D. M.; Marcu, Afrodita; Marzano, Mariella; Moseley, Darren; O'Brien, Liz; Randolph, Sarah E.; Taylor, Jennifer L.; Uzzell, David

2011-01-01

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure–state–response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour. PMID:21624921

Frameworks for risk communication and disease management: the case of Lyme disease and countryside users.

PubMed

Quine, Christopher P; Barnett, Julie; Dobson, Andrew D M; Marcu, Afrodita; Marzano, Mariella; Moseley, Darren; O'Brien, Liz; Randolph, Sarah E; Taylor, Jennifer L; Uzzell, David

2011-07-12

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure-state-response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2012-08-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

An application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) frameworks to mechanistically integrate data sources across multiple species into cumulative risk assessment (CRA)

EPA Science Inventory

Toxicologists use dose-response data from both in vivo and in vitro experiments to evaluate the effects of chemical contaminants on organisms. Cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) consider the effects of multiple stressors on multiple endpoints, and utilize environmental exposure ...

Creating context for the use of DNA adduct data in cancer risk assessment: I. Proposed framework for data organization *

EPA Science Inventory

The assessment of human cancer risk from chemical exposure requires the integration of diverse types of data. Such data involve effects at the cell and tissue levels. This report focuses on the specific utility of one type of data, namely DNA adducts. Emphasis is placed on the ap...

Operational Resiliency Management: An Introduction to the Resiliency Engineering Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-20

Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) . 5 © 2006 Carnegie Mellon University y FRB Bus Con Conference 2006 Managing Today’s Operational Risk Challenges ...Bus Con Conference 2006 A model is needed to. . . Identify and prioritize risk exposures Define a process improvement roadmap Measure and facilitate...University y FRB Bus Con Conference 2006 Why use a “model” approach? Provides an operational risk roadmap Vendor-neutral, standardized, unbiased

Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Creating Nurturing Environments: A Science-Based Framework for Promoting Child Health and Development within High-Poverty Neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Komro, Kelli A.; Flay, Brian R.; Biglan, Anthony

2013-01-01

Living in poverty and living in areas of concentrated poverty pose multiple risks for child development and for overall health and wellbeing. Poverty is a major risk factor for several mental, emotional, and behavioral disorders, as well as for other developmental challenges and physical health problems. In this paper, the Promise Neighborhoods Research Consortium describes a science-based framework for the promotion of child health and development within distressed high-poverty neighborhoods. We lay out a model of child and adolescent developmental outcomes, and integrate knowledge of potent and malleable influences to define a comprehensive intervention framework to bring about a significant increase in the proportion of young people in high-poverty neighborhoods who will develop successfully. Based on a synthesis of research from diverse fields, we designed the Creating Nurturing Environments framework to guide community-wide efforts to improve child outcomes and reduce health and educational inequalities. PMID:21468644

Design of Knowledge Management System for Diabetic Complication Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiarni, Cut

2017-01-01

This paper examines how to develop a Model for Knowledge Management System (KMS) for diabetes complication diseases. People with diabetes have a higher risk of developing a series of serious health problems. Each patient has different condition that could lead to different disease and health problem. But, with the right information, patient could have early detection so the health risk could be minimized and avoided. Hence, the objective of this research is to propose a conceptual framework that integrates social network model, Knowledge Management activities, and content based reasoning (CBR) for designing such a diabetes health and complication disease KMS. The framework indicates that the critical knowledge management activities are in the process to find similar case and the index table for algorithm to fit the framework for the social media. With this framework, KMS developers can work with healthcare provider to easily identify the suitable IT associated with the CBR process when developing a diabetes KMS.

Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.

PubMed

Garnett, K; Lickorish, F A; Rocks, S A; Prpich, G; Rathe, A A; Pollard, S J T

2016-08-01

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pilot Test of an Integrated Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention for Women with a History of Childhood Sexual Abuse.

PubMed

Senn, Theresa E; Braksmajer, Amy; Urban, Marguerite A; Coury-Doniger, Patricia; Carey, Michael P

2017-11-01

HIV and childhood sexual abuse (CSA) are intersecting public health problems for women. We pilot tested an integrated sexual risk reduction intervention for women with a history of CSA that addressed both the consequences of CSA [based on the Traumagenic Dynamics (TD) framework] and the antecedents of sexual risk behavior (based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills [IMB] model). Women with a history of CSA who were attending a public STI clinic (n = 84) were randomly assigned to a five-session integrated TD/IMB (experimental) group intervention or to a time-matched IMB-guided sexual risk reduction (control) group intervention. Preliminary findings indicated that women in the integrated TD/IMB intervention reduced their average number of episodes of unprotected sex with a primary partner, their alcohol use, and their likelihood of being in a violent relationship, relative to women in the IMB-only group. Our findings suggest that sexual risk reduction interventions that address both the consequences of CSA and the antecedents of sexual risk behavior may be efficacious in reducing sexual risk behavior among women who were sexually abused.

Risk and responsibility: a complex and evolving relationship.

PubMed

Kermisch, Céline

2012-03-01

This paper analyses the nature of the relationship between risk and responsibility. Since neither the concept of risk nor the concept of responsibility has an unequivocal definition, it is obvious that there is no single interpretation of their relationship. After introducing the different meanings of responsibility used in this paper, we analyse four conceptions of risk. This allows us to make their link with responsibility explicit and to determine if a shift in the connection between risk and responsibility can be outlined. (1) In the engineer's paradigm, the quantitative conception of risk does not include any concept of responsibility. Their relationship is indirect, the locus of responsibility being risk management. (2) In Mary Douglas' cultural theory, risks are constructed through the responsibilities they engage. (3) Rayner and (4) Wolff go further by integrating forms of responsibility in the definition of risk itself. Analysis of these four frameworks shows that the concepts of risk and responsibility are increasingly intertwined. This tendency is reinforced by increasing public awareness and a call for the integration of a moral dimension in risk management. Therefore, we suggest that a form of virtue-responsibility should also be integrated in the concept of risk. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Integrating prospective longitudinal data: modeling personality and health in the Terman Life Cycle and Hawaii Longitudinal Studies.

PubMed

Kern, Margaret L; Hampson, Sarah E; Goldberg, Lewis R; Friedman, Howard S

2014-05-01

The present study used a collaborative framework to integrate 2 long-term prospective studies: the Terman Life Cycle Study and the Hawaii Personality and Health Longitudinal Study. Within a 5-factor personality-trait framework, teacher assessments of child personality were rationally and empirically aligned to establish similar factor structures across samples. Comparable items related to adult self-rated health, education, and alcohol use were harmonized, and data were pooled on harmonized items. A structural model was estimated as a multigroup analysis. Harmonized child personality factors were then used to examine markers of physiological dysfunction in the Hawaii sample and mortality risk in the Terman sample. Harmonized conscientiousness predicted less physiological dysfunction in the Hawaii sample and lower mortality risk in the Terman sample. These results illustrate how collaborative, integrative work with multiple samples offers the exciting possibility that samples from different cohorts and ages can be linked together to directly test life span theories of personality and health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-4M

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-4M uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent, source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify simultaneous exposures and doses of individuals and populations to multiple contaminants. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system for exposures to Multiple contaminants fr...

32 CFR 159.6 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

....49, “Orchestrating, Synchronizing, and Integrating Program Management of Contingency Acquisition... increased risk or planned or ongoing military operations, including how PSC personnel will be rapidly... 13 shall provide the framework for the development of guidance and procedures without regard to the...

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.;

Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

2016-08-01

Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

Impact of Atmospheric Aerosols on Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Generation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Peng, W.; Yang, J.

2016-12-01

Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabibzadeh, Maryam

According to the final Presidential National Commission report on the BP Deepwater Horizon (DWH) blowout, there is need to "integrate more sophisticated risk assessment and risk management practices" in the oil industry. Reviewing the literature of the offshore drilling industry indicates that most of the developed risk analysis methodologies do not fully and more importantly, systematically address the contribution of Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) in accident causation. This is while results of a comprehensive study, from 1988 to 2005, of more than 600 well-documented major failures in offshore structures show that approximately 80% of those failures were due to HOFs. In addition, lack of safety culture, as an issue related to HOFs, have been identified as a common contributing cause of many accidents in this industry. This dissertation introduces an integrated risk analysis methodology to systematically assess the critical role of human and organizational factors in offshore drilling safety. The proposed methodology in this research focuses on a specific procedure called Negative Pressure Test (NPT), as the primary method to ascertain well integrity during offshore drilling, and analyzes the contributing causes of misinterpreting such a critical test. In addition, the case study of the BP Deepwater Horizon accident and their conducted NPT is discussed. The risk analysis methodology in this dissertation consists of three different approaches and their integration constitutes the big picture of my whole methodology. The first approach is the comparative analysis of a "standard" NPT, which is proposed by the author, with the test conducted by the DWH crew. This analysis contributes to identifying the involved discrepancies between the two test procedures. The second approach is a conceptual risk assessment framework to analyze the causal factors of the identified mismatches in the previous step, as the main contributors of negative pressure test misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e.g. fracking. In addition, this methodology can be applied for the analysis of any high-risk operations, in not only the oil and gas industry but also in other industries such as nuclear power plants, aviation industry, and transportation sector.

Quantifying risks with exact analytical solutions of derivative pricing distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kun; Liu, Jing; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2017-04-01

Derivative (i.e. option) pricing is essential for modern financial instrumentations. Despite of the previous efforts, the exact analytical forms of the derivative pricing distributions are still challenging to obtain. In this study, we established a quantitative framework using path integrals to obtain the exact analytical solutions of the statistical distribution for bond and bond option pricing for the Vasicek model. We discuss the importance of statistical fluctuations away from the expected option pricing characterized by the distribution tail and their associations to value at risk (VaR). The framework established here is general and can be applied to other financial derivatives for quantifying the underlying statistical distributions.

A public health framework to translate risk factors related to political violence and war into multi-level preventive interventions.

PubMed

De Jong, Joop T V M

2010-01-01

Political violence, armed conflicts and human rights violations are produced by a variety of political, economic and socio-cultural factors. Conflicts can be analyzed with an interdisciplinary approach to obtain a global understanding of the relative contribution of risk and protective factors. A public health framework was designed to address these risk factors and protective factors. The framework resulted in a matrix that combined primary, secondary and tertiary interventions with their implementation on the levels of the society-at-large, the community, and the family and individual. Subsequently, the risk and protective factors were translated into multi-sectoral, multi-modal and multi-level preventive interventions involving the economy, governance, diplomacy, the military, human rights, agriculture, health, and education. Then the interventions were slotted in their appropriate place in the matrix. The interventions can be applied in an integrative form by international agencies, governments and non-governmental organizations, and molded to meet the requirements of the historic, political-economic and socio-cultural context. The framework maps the complementary fit among the different actors while engaging themselves in preventive, rehabilitative and reconstructive interventions. The framework shows how the economic, diplomatic, political, criminal justice, human rights, military, health and rural development sectors can collaborate to promote peace or prevent the aggravation or continuation of violence. A deeper understanding of the association between risk and protective factors and the developmental pathways of generic, country-specific and culture-specific factors leading to political violence is needed.

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2013-01-01

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-1A

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-1A uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and dose for individuals and/or populations due to co-occurring air pollutants. It uses the "One Atmosphere" concept to characterize simultaneous exposures t...

Application of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework on risk management of sea ports and offshore terminals.

PubMed

Mokhtari, Kambiz; Ren, Jun; Roberts, Charles; Wang, Jin

2011-08-30

Ports and offshore terminals are critical infrastructure resources and play key roles in the transportation of goods and people. With more than 80 percent of international trade by volume being carried out by sea, ports and offshore terminals are vital for seaborne trade and international commerce. Furthermore in today's uncertain and complex environment there is a need to analyse the participated risk factors in order to prioritise protective measures in these critically logistics infrastructures. As a result of this study is carried out to support the risk assessment phase of the proposed Risk Management (RM) framework used for the purpose of sea ports and offshore terminals operations and management (PTOM). This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis framework into the risk assessment phase as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse the risk factors associated within the PTOM. This process will eventually help the port professionals and port risk managers to investigate the identified risk factors more in detail. In order to deal with vagueness of the data Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and possibility approach are used to overcome the disadvantages of the conventional probability based approaches. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Contexts: Perceptions and Practice

PubMed Central

Rivera, Claudia

2014-01-01

This paper analyses the perceptions of disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners concerning the on-going integration of climate change adaptation (CCA) into their practices in urban contexts in Nicaragua. Understanding their perceptions is important as this will provide information on how this integration can be improved. Exploring the perceptions of practitioners in Nicaragua is important as the country has a long history of disasters, and practitioners have been developing the current DRR planning framework for more than a decade. The analysis is based on semi-structured interviews designed to collect information about practitioners’ understanding of: (a) CCA, (b) the current level of integration of CCA into DRR and urban planning, (c) the opportunities and constraints of this integration, and (d) the potential to adapt cities to climate change. The results revealed that practitioners’ perception is that the integration of CCA into their practice is at an early stage, and that they need to improve their understanding of CCA in terms of a development issue. Three main constraints on improved integration were identified: (a) a recognized lack of understanding of CCA, (b) insufficient guidance on how to integrate it, and (c) the limited opportunities to integrate it into urban planning due to a lack of instruments and capacity in this field. Three opportunities were also identified: (a) practitioners’ awareness of the need to integrate CCA into their practices, (b) the robust structure of the DRR planning framework in the country, which provides a suitable channel for facilitating integration, and (c) the fact that CCA is receiving more attention and financial and technical support from the international community. PMID:24475365

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees

PubMed Central

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees. PMID:25972877

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees.

PubMed

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

2016-12-01

Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks as when compared to a deterministic forecast. The work offers perspectives for short-term flood forecasts, flood mitigation strategies and best management practices for climate change scenarios.

The integration of the risk management process with the lifecycle of medical device software.

PubMed

Pecoraro, F; Luzi, D

2014-01-01

The application of software in the Medical Device (MD) domain has become central to the improvement of diagnoses and treatments. The new European regulations that specifically address software as an important component of MD, require complex procedures to make software compliant with safety requirements, introducing thereby new challenges in the qualification and classification of MD software as well as in the performance of risk management activities. Under this perspective, the aim of this paper is to propose an integrated framework that combines the activities to be carried out by the manufacturer to develop safe software within the development lifecycle based on the regulatory requirements reported in US and European regulations as well as in the relevant standards and guidelines. A comparative analysis was carried out to identify the main issues related to the application of the current new regulations. In addition, standards and guidelines recently released to harmonise procedures for the validation of MD software have been used to define the risk management activities to be carried out by the manufacturer during the software development process. This paper highlights the main issues related to the qualification and classification of MD software, providing an analysis of the different regulations applied in Europe and the US. A model that integrates the risk management process within the software development lifecycle has been proposed too. It is based on regulatory requirements and considers software risk analysis as a central input to be managed by the manufacturer already at the initial stages of the software design, in order to prevent MD failures. Relevant changes in the process of MD development have been introduced with the recognition of software being an important component of MDs as stated in regulations and standards. This implies the performance of highly iterative processes that have to integrate the risk management in the framework of software development. It also makes it necessary to involve both medical and software engineering competences to safeguard patient and user safety.

Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarro, Sergio B.

2010-01-01

This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

Hazard Interactions and Interaction Networks (Cascades) within Multi-Hazard Methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-04-01

Here we combine research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between 'multi-layer single hazard' approaches and 'multi-hazard' approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. We proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework, through the following steps: (i) describe and define three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment; (ii) outline three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance); and (iii) assess the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case-study examples (based on literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential, and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling considering methylated trivalent arsenicals

EPA Science Inventory

PBPK modeling provides a quantitative biologically-based framework to integrate diverse types of information for application to risk analysis. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic metabolizing enzymes (AS3MT) can lead to differences in target tissue dosimetry for key tri...

Modeling Environment for Total Risk-2E

EPA Science Inventory

MENTOR-2E uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose-to-response modeling framework to quantify inhalation exposure and doses resulting from emergency events. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system that is focused towards modeling of the impacts of rele...

Value-driven ERM: making ERM an engine for simultaneous value creation and value protection.

PubMed

Celona, John; Driver, Jeffrey; Hall, Edward

2011-01-01

Enterprise risk management (ERM) began as an effort to integrate the historically disparate silos of risk management in organizations. More recently, as recognition has grown of the need to cover the upside risks in value creation (financial and otherwise), organizations and practitioners have been searching for the means to do this. Existing tools such as heat maps and risk registers are not adequate for this task. Instead, a conceptually new value-driven framework is needed to realize the promise of enterprise-wide coverage of all risks, for both value protection and value creation. The methodology of decision analysis provides the means of capturing systemic, correlated, and value-creation risks on the same basis as value protection risks and has been integrated into the value-driven approach to ERM described in this article. Stanford Hospital and Clinics Risk Consulting and Strategic Decisions Group have been working to apply this value-driven ERM at Stanford University Medical Center. © 2011 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): Transforming the Way We Assess Health Risks

PubMed Central

Williams, Pamela R. D.; Dotson, G. Scott; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors. PMID:22938698

From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, M.; Damm, B.

2014-12-01

The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their impact on public budgets is a further component of this approach. In integrated risk assessment, combination of methods plays an important role, with the objective of collecting and integrating complex data sets on landslide risk.

High-Performance Computer Modeling of the Cosmos-Iridium Collision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S; Cook, K; Fasenfest, B

2009-08-28

This paper describes the application of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness (SSA) enterprise, to the recent Cosmos-Iridium collision. This framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel, high-performance computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We will describe the application of this framework to the recent collision of the Cosmos and Iridium satellites, including (1) detailed hydrodynamic modeling of the satellitemore » collision and resulting debris generation, (2) orbital propagation of the simulated debris and analysis of the increased risk to other satellites (3) calculation of the radar and optical signatures of the simulated debris and modeling of debris detection with space surveillance radar and optical systems (4) determination of simulated debris orbits from modeled space surveillance observations and analysis of the resulting orbital accuracy, (5) comparison of these modeling and simulation results with Space Surveillance Network observations. We will also discuss the use of this integrated modeling and simulation framework to analyze the risks and consequences of future satellite collisions and to assess strategies for mitigating or avoiding future incidents, including the addition of new sensor systems, used in conjunction with the Space Surveillance Network, for improving space situational awareness.« less

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Understanding Suicide Risk within the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) Framework: Insights, Challenges, and Future Research Considerations

PubMed Central

Glenn, Catherine R.; Cha, Christine B.; Kleiman, Evan M.; Nock, Matthew K.

2016-01-01

Suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide. Prior research has focused primarily on sociodemographic and psychiatric risk factors with little improvement in the prediction or prevention of suicidal behavior over time. The Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) may be an especially useful framework for advancing research in this area. This paper provides a brief and broad overview of research on suicidal behavior relating to each of the RDoC domains—highlighting the RDoC construct(s) where research has focused, construct(s) where research is lacking, and suggestions for future research directions. We also discuss major challenges for suicide research within the RDoC framework, including the intersection of RDoC domains, interaction of domains with the environment, incorporation of developmental stage, integration of distal and proximal processes, and inclusion of suicide-specific constructs. We conclude by underscoring important considerations for future research aimed at using the RDoC framework to study suicidal behavior and other forms of psychopathology. PMID:28670505

Framework for National Flood Risk Assessment for Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Raja, B.; Lakhanpal, A.; Razavi, S.; Ceola, S.; Montanari, A.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, floods have been identified as a standout amongst the most widely recognized catastrophic events, resulting in the loss of life and property. These natural hazards cannot be avoided, but their consequences can certainly be reduced by having prior knowledge of their occurrence and impact. In the context of floods, the terms occurrence and impact are substituted by flood hazard and flood vulnerability, respectively, which collectively define the flood risk. There is a high need for identifying the flood-prone areas and to quantify the risk associated with them. The present study aims at delivering flood risk maps, which prioritize the potential flood risk areas in Canada. The methodology adopted in this study involves integrating various available spatial datasets such as nightlights satellite imagery, land use, population and the digital elevation model, to build a flexible framework for national flood risk assessment for Canada. The flood risk framework assists in identifying the flood-prone areas and evaluating the associated risk. All these spatial datasets were brought to a common GIS platform for flood risk analysis. The spatial datasets deliver the socioeconomic and topographical information that is required for evaluating the flood vulnerability and flood hazard, respectively. Nightlights have been investigated as a tool to be used as a proxy for the human activities to identify areas with regard to economic investment. However, other datasets, including existing flood protection measures, we added to identify a realistic flood assessment framework. Furthermore, the city of Calgary was used as an example to investigate the effect of using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of varying resolutions on risk maps. Along with this, the risk map for the city was further enhanced by including the population data to give a social dimension to the risk map. Flood protection measures play a major role by significantly reducing the flood risk of events with a specific return period. An analysis to update the risk maps when information on protection measures is available was carried out for the city of Winnipeg, Canada. The proposed framework is a promising approach to identify and prioritize flood-prone areas, which are in need of intervention or detailed studies.

AN INTEGRATIVE WATERSHED MODELING FRAMEWORK (IWMF) FOR ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT AT THE WATERSHED SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

The public's right to continued access and use of ecosystem services requires an evaluation of the environmental risks that are associated with activities such as urban development, agriculture, forestry, mining, water withdrawal, and dam construction. Human activities can cause ...

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing Ecological Risk-Based Evidence

EPA Science Inventory

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for e...

Integrating a flexible modeling framework (FMF) with the network security assessment instrument to reduce software security risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, D. P.; Powell, J. D.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a portion of an overall research project on the generation of the network security assessment instrument to aid developers in assessing and assuring the security of software in the development and maintenance lifecycles.

HOW CAN BIOLOGICALLY-BASED MODELING OF ARSENIC KINETICS AND DYNAMICS INFORM THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS?

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic met...

HUMAN EXPOSURE MEASUREMENTS OF AIR TOXICS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's air toxics program is moving toward a risk-based focus. The framework for such a focus was laid out in the National Air Toxics Program: Integrated Urban Strategy which included the requirement for EPA to conduct a National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) of human expos...

A Simulation Modeling Framework to Optimize Programs Using Financial Incentives to Motivate Health Behavior Change.

PubMed

Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

2016-01-01

While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: To generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated "demand curves" capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated: that is, the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. © The Author(s) 2015.

A simulation modeling framework to optimize programs using financial incentives to motivate health behavior change

PubMed Central

Basu, Sanjay; Kiernan, Michaela

2015-01-01

Introduction While increasingly popular among mid- to large-size employers, using financial incentives to induce health behavior change among employees has been controversial, in part due to poor quality and generalizability of studies to date. Thus, fundamental questions have been left unanswered: to generate positive economic returns on investment, what level of incentive should be offered for any given type of incentive program and among which employees? Methods We constructed a novel modeling framework that systematically identifies how to optimize marginal return on investment from programs incentivizing behavior change by integrating commonly-collected data on health behaviors and associated costs. We integrated “demand curves” capturing individual differences in response to any given incentive with employee demographic and risk factor data. We also estimated the degree of self-selection that could be tolerated, i.e., the maximum percentage of already-healthy employees who could enroll in a wellness program while still maintaining positive absolute return on investment. In a demonstration analysis, the modeling framework was applied to data from 3,000 worksite physical activity programs across the nation. Results For physical activity programs, the incentive levels that would optimize marginal return on investment ($367/employee/year) were higher than average incentive levels currently offered ($143/employee/year). Yet a high degree of self-selection could undermine the economic benefits of the program; if more than 17% of participants came from the top 10% of the physical activity distribution, the cost of the program would be expected to always be greater than its benefits. Discussion Our generalizable framework integrates individual differences in behavior and risk to systematically estimate the incentive level that optimizes marginal return on investment. PMID:25977362

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2015-12-03

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insightsmore » from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.« less

Market-implied spread for earthquake CAT bonds: financial implications of engineering decisions.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Ivan; Aslan, Zafer; Mander, John

2010-12-01

In the event of natural and man-made disasters, owners of large-scale infrastructure facilities (assets) need contingency plans to effectively restore the operations within the acceptable timescales. Traditionally, the insurance sector provides the coverage against potential losses. However, there are many problems associated with this traditional approach to risk transfer including counterparty risk and litigation. Recently, a number of innovative risk mitigation methods, termed alternative risk transfer (ART) methods, have been introduced to address these problems. One of the most important ART methods is catastrophe (CAT) bonds. The objective of this article is to develop an integrative model that links engineering design parameters with financial indicators including spread and bond rating. The developed framework is based on a four-step structural loss model and transformed survival model to determine expected excess returns. We illustrate the framework for a seismically designed bridge using two unique CAT bond contracts. The results show a nonlinear relationship between engineering design parameters and market-implied spread. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

How Can Biologically-Based Modeling of Arsenic Kinetics and Dynamics Inform the Risk Assessment Process? -- ETD

EPA Science Inventory

Quantitative biologically-based models describing key events in the continuum from arsenic exposure to the development of adverse health effects provide a framework to integrate information obtained across diverse research areas. For example, genetic polymorphisms in arsenic me...

Pre-defined and optional staging for the deployment of enterprise systems: a case study and a framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lichtenstein, Yossi; Cucuy, Shy; Fink, Lior

2017-03-01

The effective deployment of enterprise systems has been a major challenge for many organisations. Customising the new system, changing business processes, and integrating multiple information sources are all difficult tasks. As such, they are typically done in carefully planned stages in a process known as phased implementation. Using ideas from Option Theory, this article critiques aspects of phased implementation. One customer relationship management (CRM) project and its phased implementation are described in detail and ten other enterprise system deployments are summarised as a basis for the observation that almost all deployment stages are pre-defined operational steps rather than decision points. However, Option Theory suggests that optional stages, to be used only when risk materialises, should be integral parts of project plans. Although such optional stages are often more valuable than pre-defined stages, the evidence presented in this article shows that they are only rarely utilised. Therefore, a simple framework is presented; it first identifies risks related to the deployment of enterprise systems, then identifies optional stages that can mitigate these risks, and finally compares the costs and benefits of both pre-defined and optional stages.

Analysing Surface Exposure to Climate Dynamics in the Himalayas to Adopt a Planning Framework for Landslide Risk Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2017-12-01

Himalayas rank first in the inventory of most densely populated and congested high altitude mountain regions of the planet. The region is mostly characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools along with constraints of terrain undermining the carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Moreover, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly urbanizing mountain towns to increased frequency and severity of risks from extreme weather events. Such events pose multifold threat by easily translating to hazards, without the ability to respond and mitigate. Additionally, the recent extreme climate dynamics such as rainfall patterns have influenced the natural rate of surface/slope processes in the Himalaya. The aim of the study was to analyze the extent of interaction between climate dynamics and upland surface to develop participatory planning framework for landslide risk reduction using Integral Geographic Information System (integral GIS). At this stage, the study is limited to only rainfall triggered landslides (RTL). The study region lies in the middle Himalayan range (Himachal). Research utilized terrain analysis tools in integral GIS and identified risk susceptible surface without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2. Interference in surface/slope processes. Analysis covered most of the relevant surface factors including geology, slope instability, infrastructure development, natural and urban drainage system, land-cover and land-use as well. The outcome included an exposure-reduced model of existing terrain and the surface-process accommodated by it, with the use of local technical tools available among the poor and fragile mountain community. The final participatory planning framework successfully harmonized people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporated priorities of local authorities. This research is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of the (often) conflicting perspectives, interests, and approaches of multiplicity of stakeholders thereby having vast potential to replicate/upscale in mountains beyond the study region as it ensures barrier free risk-communication through the most affordable and innovative tools.

A Social-Ecological Framework of Theory, Assessment, and Prevention of Suicide

PubMed Central

Cramer, Robert J.; Kapusta, Nestor D.

2017-01-01

The juxtaposition of increasing suicide rates with continued calls for suicide prevention efforts begs for new approaches. Grounded in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) framework for tackling health issues, this personal views work integrates relevant suicide risk/protective factor, assessment, and intervention/prevention literatures. Based on these components of suicide risk, we articulate a Social-Ecological Suicide Prevention Model (SESPM) which provides an integration of general and population-specific risk and protective factors. We also use this multi-level perspective to provide a structured approach to understanding current theories and intervention/prevention efforts concerning suicide. Following similar multi-level prevention efforts in interpersonal violence and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) domains, we offer recommendations for social-ecologically informed suicide prevention theory, training, research, assessment, and intervention programming. Although the SESPM calls for further empirical testing, it provides a suitable backdrop for tailoring of current prevention and intervention programs to population-specific needs. Moreover, the multi-level model shows promise to move suicide risk assessment forward (e.g., development of multi-level suicide risk algorithms or structured professional judgments instruments) to overcome current limitations in the field. Finally, we articulate a set of characteristics of social-ecologically based suicide prevention programs. These include the need to address risk and protective factors with the strongest degree of empirical support at each multi-level layer, incorporate a comprehensive program evaluation strategy, and use a variety of prevention techniques across levels of prevention. PMID:29062296

Development and application of the adverse outcome pathway framework for understanding and predicting chronic toxicity: I. Challenges and research needs in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Groh, Ksenia J; Carvalho, Raquel N; Chipman, James K; Denslow, Nancy D; Halder, Marlies; Murphy, Cheryl A; Roelofs, Dick; Rolaki, Alexandra; Schirmer, Kristin; Watanabe, Karen H

2015-02-01

To elucidate the effects of chemicals on populations of different species in the environment, efficient testing and modeling approaches are needed that consider multiple stressors and allow reliable extrapolation of responses across species. An adverse outcome pathway (AOP) is a concept that provides a framework for organizing knowledge about the progression of toxicity events across scales of biological organization that lead to adverse outcomes relevant for risk assessment. In this paper, we focus on exploring how the AOP concept can be used to guide research aimed at improving both our understanding of chronic toxicity, including delayed toxicity as well as epigenetic and transgenerational effects of chemicals, and our ability to predict adverse outcomes. A better understanding of the influence of subtle toxicity on individual and population fitness would support a broader integration of sublethal endpoints into risk assessment frameworks. Detailed mechanistic knowledge would facilitate the development of alternative testing methods as well as help prioritize higher tier toxicity testing. We argue that targeted development of AOPs supports both of these aspects by promoting the elucidation of molecular mechanisms and their contribution to relevant toxicity outcomes across biological scales. We further discuss information requirements and challenges in application of AOPs for chemical- and site-specific risk assessment and for extrapolation across species. We provide recommendations for potential extension of the AOP framework to incorporate information on exposure, toxicokinetics and situation-specific ecological contexts, and discuss common interfaces that can be employed to couple AOPs with computational modeling approaches and with evolutionary life history theory. The extended AOP framework can serve as a venue for integration of knowledge derived from various sources, including empirical data as well as molecular, quantitative and evolutionary-based models describing species responses to toxicants. This will allow a more efficient application of AOP knowledge for quantitative chemical- and site-specific risk assessment as well as for extrapolation across species in the future. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Development of an Integrated Theory of Surgical Recovery in Older Adults.

PubMed

Ann DiMaria-Ghalili, Rose

2016-01-01

Experts argue the health care system is not prepared to meet the unique needs of older surgical patients, including how to provide the best care during the recovery phase. Nutrition plays a critical role in the recovery of surgical patients. Since older adults are at risk for malnutrition, examining the role of nutrition as a mediator for surgical recovery across the care continuum in older adults is critical. Presently there is a paucity of frameworks, models, and guidelines that integrate the role of nutrition on the trajectory of postoperative recovery in older surgical patients. The purpose of this article is to introduce the Integrated Theory of Surgical Recovery in Older Adults, an interdisciplinary middle-range theory, so that scholars, researchers, and clinicians can use this framework to promote recovery from surgery in older adults by considering the contribution of mediators of recovery (nutritional status, functional status, and frailty) unique to the older adults.

Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

2016-12-15

As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steam Generator tube integrity -- US Nuclear Regulatory Commission perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, E.L.; Sullivan, E.J.

1997-02-01

In the US, the current regulatory framework was developed in the 1970s when general wall thinning was the dominant degradation mechanism; and, as a result of changes in the forms of degradation being observed and improvements in inspection and tube repair technology, the regulatory framework needs to be updated. Operating experience indicates that the current U.S. requirements should be more stringent in some areas, while in other areas they are overly conservative. To date, this situation has been dealt with on a plant-specific basis in the US. However, the NRC staff is now developing a proposed steam generator rule asmore » a generic framework for ensuring that the steam generator tubes are capable of performing their intended safety functions. This paper discusses the current U.S. regulatory framework for assuring steam generator (SG) tube integrity, the need to update this regulatory framework, the objectives of the new proposed rule, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guide (RG) that will accompany the rule, how risk considerations affect the development of the new rule, and some outstanding issues relating to the rule that the NRC is still dealing with.« less

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

PEER Transportation Research Program | PEER Transportation Research Program

Science.gov Websites

methodologies, integrating fundamental knowledge, enabling technologies, and systems. We further expect that the Bayesian Framework for Performance Assessment and Risk Management of Transportation Systems subject to Earthquakes Directivity Modeling for NGA West2 Ground Motion Studies for Transportation Systems Performance

Invited seminar, University of North Texas: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Invited OSU class lecture: An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on forest ecosystem services - ESRP mtg

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

An integrated eco-hydrologic modeling framework for assessing the effects of interacting stressors on multiple ecosystem services - 4/27/10

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recently established the Ecosystem Services Research Program to help formulate methods and models for conducting comprehensive risk assessments that quantify how multiple ecosystem services interact and respond in concert to environmental ...

Integrating watershed- and farm-scale modeling framework for targeting critical source areas while maintaining farm economic viability

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantitative risk assessments of pollution and data related to the effectiveness of mitigating best management practices (BMPs) are important aspects of nonpoint source (NPS) pollution control efforts, particularly those driven by specific water quality objectives and by measurable improvement goals...

Health assessment and risk mitigation of railroad networks exposed to natural hazards using commercial remote sensing and spatial information technologies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-05-31

The overarching goal of this project was to integrate data from commercial remote sensing and spatial information (CRS&SI) technologies to create a novel data-driven decision making framework that empowers the railroad industry to monitor, assess, an...

Assessing Released Inmates for Substance-Abuse-Related Service Needs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belenko, Steven

2006-01-01

High rates of substance abuse and recidivism and limited in-prison and postrelease treatment access and transitional planning complicate community reintegration. Moreover, drug-related health and social problems are related to treatment outcomes. In the framework of risk-responsivity theory and structured, integrated reentry models, this article…

Mastodon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin Leigh; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Bolisetti, Chandrakanth

MASTODON has the capability to model stochastic nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) in a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework. The NLSSI simulations include structural dynamics, time integration, dynamic porous media flow, nonlinear hysteretic soil constitutive models, geometric nonlinearities (gapping, sliding, and uplift). MASTODON is also the MOOSE based master application for dynamic PRA of external hazards.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health.

PubMed

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary S; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modeling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE's applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRADE: Assessing the quality of evidence in environmental and occupational health

PubMed Central

Morgan, Rebecca L; Thayer, Kristina A; Bero, Lisa; Bruce, Nigel; Falck-Ytter, Yngve; Ghersi, Davina; Guyatt, Gordon; Hooijmans, Carlijn; Langendam, Miranda; Mandrioli, Daniele; Mustafa, Reem A.; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rooney, Andrew A; Shea, Beverley; Silbergeld, Ellen K; Sutton, Patrice; Wolfe, Mary; Woodruff, Tracey J; Verbeek, Jos H; Holloway, Alison C.; Santesso, Nancy; Schünemann, Holger J

2016-01-01

There is high demand in environmental health for adoption of a structured process that evaluates and integrates evidence while making decisions and recommendations transparent. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) framework holds promise to address this demand. For over a decade, GRADE has been applied successfully to areas of clinical medicine, public health, and health policy, but experience with GRADE in environmental and occupational health is just beginning. Environmental and occupational health questions focus on understanding whether an exposure is a potential health hazard or risk, assessing the exposure to understand the extent and magnitude of risk, and exploring interventions to mitigate exposure or risk. Although GRADE offers many advantages, including its flexibility and methodological rigor, there are features of the different sources of evidence used in environmental and occupational health that will require further consideration to assess the need for method refinement. An issue that requires particular attention is the evaluation and integration of evidence from human, animal, in vitro, and in silico (computer modelling) studies when determining whether an environmental factor represents a potential health hazard or risk. Assessment of the hazard of exposures can produce analyses for use in the GRADE evidence-to-decision (EtD) framework to inform risk-management decisions about removing harmful exposures or mitigating risks. The EtD framework allows for grading the strength of the recommendations based on judgments of the certainty in the evidence (also known as quality of the evidence), as well as other factors that inform recommendations such as social values and preferences, resource implications, and benefits. GRADE represents an untapped opportunity for environmental and occupational health to make evidence-based recommendations in a systematic and transparent manner. The objectives of this article are to provide an overview of GRADE, discuss GRADE’s applicability to environmental health, and identify priority areas for method assessment and development. PMID:26827182

A research framework for the development and implementation of interventions preventing work-related musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed

van der Beek, Allard J; Dennerlein, Jack T; Huysmans, Maaike A; Mathiassen, Svend Erik; Burdorf, Alex; van Mechelen, Willem; van Dieën, Jaap H; Frings-Dresen, Monique Hw; Holtermann, Andreas; Janwantanakul, Prawit; van der Molen, Henk F; Rempel, David; Straker, Leon; Walker-Bone, Karen; Coenen, Pieter

2017-11-01

Objectives Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are highly prevalent and put a large burden on (working) society. Primary prevention of work-related MSD focuses often on physical risk factors (such as manual lifting and awkward postures) but has not been too successful in reducing the MSD burden. This may partly be caused by insufficient knowledge of etiological mechanisms and/or a lack of adequately feasible interventions (theory failure and program failure, respectively), possibly due to limited integration of research disciplines. A research framework could link research disciplines thereby strengthening the development and implementation of preventive interventions. Our objective was to define and describe such a framework for multi-disciplinary research on work-related MSD prevention. Methods We described a framework for MSD prevention research, partly based on frameworks from other research fields (ie, sports injury prevention and public health). Results The framework is composed of a repeated sequence of six steps comprising the assessment of (i) incidence and severity of MSD, (ii) risk factors for MSD, and (iii) underlying mechanisms; and the (iv) development, (v) evaluation, and (vi) implementation of preventive intervention(s). Conclusions In the present framework for optimal work-related MSD prevention, research disciplines are linked. This framework can thereby help to improve theories and strengthen the development and implementation of prevention strategies for work-related MSD.

Air Vehicle Integration and Technology Research (AVIATR). Task Order 0003: Condition-Based Maintenance Plus Structural Integrity (CBM+SI) Demonstration (April 2011 to August 2011)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

investigated. Implementation of this technology into the maintenance framework depends on several factors, including safety of the structural system, cost... Maintenance Parameters The F-15 Program has indicated that, in practice , maintenance actions are generally performed on flight hour multiples of 200...Risk Analysis or the Perform Cost Benefit Analysis sections of the flowchart. 4.6. Determine System Configurations The current maintenance practice

Electric vehicle (EV) storage supply chain risk and the energy market: A micro and macroeconomic risk management approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Susanna D.

As a cost effective storage technology for renewable energy sources, Electric Vehicles can be integrated into energy grids. Integration must be optimized to ascertain that renewable energy is available through storage when demand exists so that cost of electricity is minimized. Optimization models can address economic risks associated with the EV supply chain- particularly the volatility in availability and cost of critical materials used in the manufacturing of EV motors and batteries. Supply chain risk can reflect itself in a shortage of storage, which can increase the price of electricity. We propose a micro-and macroeconomic framework for managing supply chain risk through utilization of a cost optimization model in combination with risk management strategies at the microeconomic and macroeconomic level. The study demonstrates how risk from the EVs vehicle critical material supply chain affects manufacturers, smart grid performance, and energy markets qualitatively and quantitatively. Our results illustrate how risk in the EV supply chain affects EV availability and the cost of ancillary services, and how EV critical material supply chain risk can be mitigated through managerial strategies and policy.

Comparative Human Health Impact Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials in the Framework of Life Cycle Assessment.

PubMed

Fransman, Wouter; Buist, Harrie; Kuijpers, Eelco; Walser, Tobias; Meyer, David; Zondervan-van den Beuken, Esther; Westerhout, Joost; Klein Entink, Rinke H; Brouwer, Derk H

2017-07-01

For safe innovation, knowledge on potential human health impacts is essential. Ideally, these impacts are considered within a larger life-cycle-based context to support sustainable development of new applications and products. A methodological framework that accounts for human health impacts caused by inhalation of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in an indoor air environment has been previously developed. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) evaluate the feasibility of applying the CF framework for NP exposure in the workplace based on currently available data; and (ii) supplement any resulting knowledge gaps with methods and data from the life cycle approach and human risk assessment (LICARA) project to develop a modified case-specific version of the framework that will enable near-term inclusion of NP human health impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) using a case study involving nanoscale titanium dioxide (nanoTiO 2 ). The intent is to enhance typical LCA with elements of regulatory risk assessment, including its more detailed measure of uncertainty. The proof-of-principle demonstration of the framework highlighted the lack of available data for both the workplace emissions and human health effects of ENMs that is needed to calculate generalizable characterization factors using common human health impact assessment practices in LCA. The alternative approach of using intake fractions derived from workplace air concentration measurements and effect factors based on best-available toxicity data supported the current case-by-case approach for assessing the human health life cycle impacts of ENMs. Ultimately, the proposed framework and calculations demonstrate the potential utility of integrating elements of risk assessment with LCA for ENMs once the data are available. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) / Emergency Core Coolant System (ECCS Evaluation of Risk-Informed Margins Management Strategies for a Representative Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Szilard, Ronaldo Henriques

A Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) toolkit and methodology are proposed for investigating nuclear power plant core, fuels design and safety analysis, including postulated Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) analysis. This toolkit, under an integrated evaluation model framework, is name LOCA toolkit for the US (LOTUS). This demonstration includes coupled analysis of core design, fuel design, thermal hydraulics and systems analysis, using advanced risk analysis tools and methods to investigate a wide range of results.

A Biopsychosocial Conceptual Framework of Postpartum Depression Risk in Immigrant and U.S.-born Latina Mothers in the United States.

PubMed

Lara-Cinisomo, Sandraluz; Girdler, Susan S; Grewen, Karen; Meltzer-Brody, Samantha

2016-01-01

In this review, we offer a conceptual framework that identifies risk factors of postpartum depression (PPD) in immigrant and U.S.-born Latinas in the United States by focusing on psychosocial and neuroendocrine factors. Although the evidence of the impact psychosocial stressors have on the development of PPD has been well-documented, less is known about the biological etiology of PPD or how these complex stressors jointly increase the risk of PPD in immigrant and U.S.-born Latinas in the United States. Using PubMed, CINAHL, and Embase, we reviewed the literature from 2000 to 2015 regarding psychosocial and physiological risk factors associated with PPD to develop a conceptual model for Latinas. Our search yielded 16 relevant studies. Based on our review of the literature, we developed a biopsychosocial conceptual model of PPD for Latinas in the United States. We make arguments for an integrated model designed to assess psychosocial and physiological risk factors and PPD in a high-risk population. Our framework describes the hypothesized associations between culturally and contextually relevant psychosocial stressors, neurobiological factors (e.g., hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal [HPA] axis response system and oxytocin signaling), and PPD in Latinas in the United States. Future studies should evaluate prospectively the impact psychosocial stressors identified here have on the development of PPD in both immigrant and U.S-born Latinas while examining neuroendocrine function, such as the HPA axis and oxytocin signaling. Our conceptual framework will allow for the reporting of main and indirect effects of psychosocial risk factors and biomarkers (e.g., HPA axis and oxytocin function) on PPD in foreign- and U.S.-born postpartum Latinas. Copyright © 2016 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

Perspectives for food research and European collaboration in the European Research Area and the new Framework Programme.

PubMed

Breslin, L

2001-08-01

Since 1987, successive framework programmes have contributed to strengthen European food research through the establishment of networks between research institutions, universities and companies from various European countries. In the FAIR programme (1994-1998), 118 research projects comprising nearly 1,000 participants from the European Union and Associated States have been supported in the food area with a European funding of about [symbol: see text] 108 million. Within the Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources programme (1998-2002), food research is mostly supported within the key action 'food, nutrition and health' with a budget of [symbol: see text] 290 million. After the first four deadlines, 735 eligible research proposals have already been received. Further to their evaluation by a panel of independent experts, 108 proposals have been funded or selected for funding representing a total contribution of about [symbol: see text] 168 million. Among those, several clusters of projects are now running on important topics such as probiotics, coeliac diseases, mycotoxins, GMO, safety and food for the elderly. In addition, technology stimulation measures are largely benefiting SMEs to foster their innovation potential. In January 2000, the European Commission adopted a Communication entitled "Towards the European Research Area (ERA)" with the objective to contribute to developing better framework conditions for research in Europe. On 21 February 2001, the Commission adopted proposals to be submitted to the European Parliament and Council for the next framework programme for research and innovation (2002-2006). The new framework programme that is becoming one of the financial instruments of the ERA aims at catalysing the integration of European research by: strengthening of links between the Community research effort and national and regional research policies; concentrating on a limited number of priority fields or research to which activities at the Union level can add real value. One of the seven priority areas, entitled 'food safety and health risks', is intended to help establish the integrated scientific and technological bases needed to develop a system of production and distribution of safe and healthy food and control food-related risks, relying in particular on biotechnology tools, as well as health risks associated with environmental changes. A total budget of [symbol: see text] 600 million is proposed for this priority. In the priority areas, the new framework programme will work mainly by supporting the development of cooperation within networks of excellence bringing together the best research capabilities in Europe's regions to conduct common research programmes and integrated projects involving public and private partners, with clearly stated scientific and technological objectives.

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

Translating reference doses into allergen management practice: challenges for stakeholders.

PubMed

Crevel, René W R; Baumert, Joseph L; Luccioli, Stefano; Baka, Athanasia; Hattersley, Sue; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B; Ronsmans, Stefan; Timmermans, Frans; Ward, Rachel; Chung, Yong-joo

2014-05-01

Risk assessment describes the impact of a particular hazard as a function of dose and exposure. It forms the foundation of risk management and contributes to the overall decision-making process, but is not its endpoint. This paper outlines a risk analysis framework to underpin decision-making in the area of allergen cross-contact. Specifically, it identifies challenges relevant to each component of the risk analysis: risk assessment (data gaps and output interpretation); risk management (clear and realistic objectives); and risk communication (clear articulation of risk and benefit). Translation of the outputs from risk assessment models into risk management measures must be informed by a clear understanding of the model outputs and their limitations. This will lead to feasible and achievable risk management objectives, grounded in a level of risk accepted by the different stakeholders, thereby avoiding potential unintended detrimental consequences. Clear, consistent and trustworthy communications actively involving all stakeholders underpin these objectives. The conclusions, integrating the perspectives of different stakeholders, offer a vision where clear, science-based benchmarks form the basis of allergen management and labelling, cutting through the current confusion and uncertainty. Finally, the paper recognises that the proposed framework must be adaptable to new and emerging evidence. Copyright © 2014 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

2015-01-01

The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union.

PubMed

Mur, Lina; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Costard, Solenne; de la Torre, Ana; Jones, Bryony A; Martínez, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Muñoz, María Jesús; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Wieland, Barbara

2014-07-03

The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

2014-05-01

High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future changes in water quantity and quality. For disaster risk assessment, the goal is to identify the intersection of potential mass movement and flood hazards, with exposed people, resources, and assets. Base level information is required on glacier area and volume, mass balance, glacial lake distribution, surface topography, information on snow cover, duration, and snow water equivalent, and gauge measurements on river and stream flows. Where instrumental data is lacking, information of past hydrological regimes and evidence of mass movement can be derived from documentary records (archival reports), from geological indicators (i.e. palaeofloods: sedimentary and biological records over centennial to millennial scales), and from botanical sources (i.e. dendrogeomorphology). The adaptive capacity to face the challenges associated with a changing cryosphere in the Kullu district will require economic, political, and knowledge capacity to plan, prepare, and respond to issues of water quantity and quality, and disaster risk associated with mass movement and flood hazard. Socio-economic information to be assessed includes economic metrics, literacy rates, and population demographic factors such as gender, age, and religion. These same factors largely determine a communities capacity to anticipate, respond to, and recover from disasters.

Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer sufficient. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS reports: “Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century”, “Exposure Science in the 21st Century”, and most recently, “Using 21st Century Science to Improve Risk-Related Evaluations.” The presentation highlights many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action concept into the chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing the exposome is presented, as is the systems-based AEP that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework

Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

PubMed

Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

2017-03-01

Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Behavioral and Neurodevelopmental Precursors to Binge-Type Eating Disorders: Support for the Role of Negative Valence Systems

PubMed Central

Vannucci, Anna; Nelson, Eric E.; Bongiorno, Diana M.; Pine, Daniel S.; Yanovski, Jack A.; Tanofsky-Kraff, Marian

2015-01-01

Background Pediatric loss-of-control eating is a robust behavioral precursor to binge-type eating disorders. Elucidating precursors to loss-of-control eating and binge-type eating disorders may refine developmental risk models of eating disorders and inform interventions. Method We review evidence within constructs of the Negative Valence Systems (NVS)-domain, as specified by the Research Domain Criteria framework. Based on published studies, we propose an integrated NVS model of binge-type eating disorder risk. Results Data implicate altered corticolimbic functioning, neuroendocrine dysregulation, and self-reported negative affect as possible risk-factors. However, neuroimaging and physiological data in children and adolescents are sparse, and most prospective studies are limited to self-report measures. Conclusions We discuss a broad NVS framework for conceptualizing early risk for binge-type eating disorders. Future neural and behavioral research on the developmental trajectory of loss-of-control and binge-type eating disorders is required. PMID:26040923

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, R.A.

2002-05-09

This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework,more » (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km{sup 2} between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of activity in August of 2000.« less

Zika reveals India's risk communication challenges and needs.

PubMed

Vijaykumar, Santosh; Raamkumar, Aravind Sesagiri

2018-04-12

India's approach to disseminating information about the first three cases of the Zika virus was criticised nationally and internationally after the issue came to light in May 2017 through a World Health Organization news release. We analyse the incident from a risk communication perspective. This commentary recaps the events and synthesises key arguments put forth by the news media and public health stakeholders. We use Peter Sandman's risk = hazard + outrage framework - also adopted by India's risk communication planners - to analyse India's risk communication response and contextualise it against the mandate of the National Risk Communication Plan and Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme. We conclude with recommendations for India's risk communication policymakers, including the need to develop capacity for risk communication research and scholarship in the country.

On set-valued functionals: Multivariate risk measures and Aumann integrals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ararat, Cagin

In this dissertation, multivariate risk measures for random vectors and Aumann integrals of set-valued functions are studied. Both are set-valued functionals with values in a complete lattice of subsets of Rm. Multivariate risk measures are considered in a general d-asset financial market with trading opportunities in discrete time. Specifically, the following features of the market are incorporated in the evaluation of multivariate risk: convex transaction costs modeled by solvency regions, intermediate trading constraints modeled by convex random sets, and the requirement of liquidation into the first m ≤ d of the assets. It is assumed that the investor has a "pure" multivariate risk measure R on the space of m-dimensional random vectors which represents her risk attitude towards the assets but does not take into account the frictions of the market. Then, the investor with a d-dimensional position minimizes the set-valued functional R over all m-dimensional positions that she can reach by trading in the market subject to the frictions described above. The resulting functional Rmar on the space of d-dimensional random vectors is another multivariate risk measure, called the market-extension of R. A dual representation for R mar that decomposes the effects of R and the frictions of the market is proved. Next, multivariate risk measures are studied in a utility-based framework. It is assumed that the investor has a complete risk preference towards each individual asset, which can be represented by a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Then, an incomplete preference is considered for multivariate positions which is represented by the vector of the individual utility functions. Under this structure, multivariate shortfall and divergence risk measures are defined as the optimal values of set minimization problems. The dual relationship between the two classes of multivariate risk measures is constructed via a recent Lagrange duality for set optimization. In particular, it is shown that a shortfall risk measure can be written as an intersection over a family of divergence risk measures indexed by a scalarization parameter. Examples include the multivariate versions of the entropic risk measure and the average value at risk. In the second part, Aumann integrals of set-valued functions on a measurable space are viewed as set-valued functionals and a Daniell-Stone type characterization theorem is proved for such functionals. More precisely, it is shown that a functional that maps measurable set-valued functions into a certain complete lattice of subsets of Rm can be written as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure if and only if the functional is (1) additive and (2) positively homogeneous, (3) it preserves decreasing limits, (4) it maps halfspace-valued functions to halfspaces, and (5) it maps shifted cone-valued functions to shifted cones. While the first three properties already exist in the classical Daniell-Stone theorem for the Lebesgue integral, the last two properties are peculiar to the set-valued framework and they suffice to complement the first three properties to identify a set-valued functional as the Aumann integral with respect to a measure.

Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products: overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist.

PubMed

Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

2015-12-01

Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper summarizes current best practices and discusses the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist in these activities, taking a life-cycle approach to integrated Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE). A review of the medical and regulatory literature was performed for the following steps involved in therapeutic benefit-risk optimization: benefit-risk evidence generation; data integration and analysis; decision making; regulatory and policy decision making; benefit-risk communication and risk minimization; and evaluation. Feedback from International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology members was solicited on the role of the pharmacoepidemiologist. The case example of natalizumab is provided to illustrate the cyclic nature of the benefit-risk optimization process. No single, globally adopted benefit-risk assessment process exists. The BRACE heuristic offers a way to clarify research needs and to promote best practices in a cyclic and integrated manner and highlight the critical importance of cross-disciplinary input. Its approach focuses on the integration of BRACE activities for risk minimization and optimization of the benefit-risk profile. The activities defined in the BRACE heuristic contribute to the optimization of the benefit-risk profile of therapeutic products in the clinical world at both the patient and population health level. With interdisciplinary collaboration, pharmacoepidemiologists are well suited for bringing in methodology expertise, relevant research, and public health perspectives into the BRACE process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Integrative Research Framework to Unravel the Interplay of Natural Hazards and Vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Nohrstedt, Daniel; Mârd, Johanna; Burchardt, Steffi; Albin, Cecilia; Bondesson, Sara; Breinl, Korbinian; Deegan, Frances M.; Fuentes, Diana; Lopez, Marc Girons; Granberg, Mikael; Nyberg, Lars; Nyman, Monika Rydstedt; Rhodes, Emma; Troll, Valentin; Young, Stephanie; Walch, Colin; Parker, Charles F.

2018-03-01

Climate change, globalization, urbanization, social isolation, and increased interconnectedness between physical, human, and technological systems pose major challenges to disaster risk reduction (DRR). Subsequently, economic losses caused by natural hazards are increasing in many regions of the world, despite scientific progress, persistent policy action, and international cooperation. We argue that these dramatic figures call for novel scientific approaches and new types of data collection to integrate the two main approaches that still dominate the science underpinning DRR: the hazard paradigm and the vulnerability paradigm. Building from these two approaches, here we propose a research framework that specifies the scope of enquiry, concepts, and general relations among phenomena. We then discuss the essential steps to advance systematic empirical research and evidence-based DRR policy action.

Critical Literacy for School Improvement: An Action Research Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Karyn; White, Robert E.

2008-01-01

This article provides an overview of the integrative process of initiating an action research project on literacy for students "at risk" in a Canadian urban elementary school. As the article demonstrates, this requires development of a school-wide framework, which informs the action research project and desired outcomes, and a shared…

Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podger, G. M.; Cuddy, S. M.; Peeters, L.; Smith, T.; Bark, R. H.; Black, D. C.; Wallbrink, P.

2014-09-01

Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources - maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009) have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation) scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Creating an outcomes framework.

PubMed

Doerge, J B

2000-01-01

Four constructs used to build a framework for outcomes management for a large midwestern tertiary hospital are described in this article. A system framework outlining a model of clinical integration and population management based in Steven Shortell's work is discussed. This framework includes key definitions of high-risk patients, target groups, populations and community. Roles for each level of population management and how they were implemented in the health care system are described. A point of service framework centered on seven dimensions of care is the next construct applied on each nursing unit. The third construct outlines the framework for role development. Three roles for nursing were created to implement strategies for target groups that are strategic disease categories; two of those roles are described in depth. The philosophy of nursing practice is centered on caring and existential advocacy. The final construct is the modification of the Dartmouth model as a common framework for outcomes. System applications of the scorecard and lessons learned in the 2-year process of implementation are shared

Visions for a Pan-European digital data infrastructure for groundwater quantity and quality data relevant for implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinsby, Klaus; Broers, Hans Peter

2014-05-01

The EU Water Framework and Groundwater Directives stipulate that EU member states (MS) should ensure good groundwater chemical and quantitative by 2015. For the assessment of good chemical status the MS have to establish Natural Background Levels (NBLs) and Threshold Values (TVs) for groundwater bodies at risk and compare current concentration levels to these. In addition the MS shall ensure trend reversals in cases where contaminants or water levels show critical increasing or decreasing trends. The EU MS have to demonstrate that the quantitative and chemical status of its groundwater bodies does not put drinking water, ecosystems or other legitimate uses at risk. Easy on-line access to relevant visualizations of groundwater quality and quantity data of e.g. nitrate, chloride, arsenic and water tables in Europe's major aquifer types compiled from national databases would be of great importance for managers, authorities and scientists conducting risk and status assessments. The Water Resources Expert Group of the EuroGeoSurveys propose to develop Pan-European interactive on-line digital maps and visualizations of concentrations levels and trends, as well as calculated natural background levels and threshold values for the most important aquifer types of Europe mainly derived based on principles established in the former EU project "BRIDGE" - Background cRiteria for the IDentification of Groundwater Thresholds. Further, we propose to develop Pan-European digital and dynamic maps and cross sections in close collaboration with ecologists, which delineate dependent or associated terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems across Europe where groundwater quantity and quality plays a significant role in sustaining good ecological status of the ecosystem, and where the water resources and ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change. Finally, integrated water resources management requires integrated consideration of both deep and shallow groundwater and surface water issues and interaction. It is therefore proposed to map regions of Europe that use coupled groundwater-surface water models in integrated water resources and river basin management. In the presentation we will show selected examples of data visualizations of importance to integrated water resources and river basin management and the implementation of the Water Framework Directive.

A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2016-08-01

This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.

A tiered, integrated biological and chemical monitoring framework for contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Dodder, Nathan G; Mehinto, Alvine C; Denslow, Nancy D; Schlenk, Daniel; Snyder, Shane A; Weisberg, Stephen B

2016-07-01

The chemical-specific risk-based paradigm that informs monitoring and assessment of environmental contaminants does not apply well to the many thousands of new chemicals that are being introduced into ambient receiving waters. We propose a tiered framework that incorporates bioanalytical screening tools and diagnostic nontargeted chemical analysis to more effectively monitor for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The framework is based on a comprehensive battery of in vitro bioassays to first screen for a broad spectrum of CECs and nontargeted analytical methods to identify bioactive contaminants missed by the currently favored targeted analyses. Water quality managers in California have embraced this strategy with plans to further develop and test this framework in regional and statewide pilot studies on waterbodies that receive discharge from municipal wastewater treatment plants and stormwater runoff. In addition to directly informing decisions, the data obtained using this framework can be used to construct and validate models that better predict CEC occurrence and toxicity. The adaptive interplay among screening results, diagnostic assessment and predictive modeling will allow managers to make decisions based on the most current and relevant information, instead of extrapolating from parameters with questionable linkage to CEC impacts. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:540-547. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

A Framework for Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risks from MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination.

PubMed

Mishra, Harshit; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kumar, Rakesh; Singh, Jitendra

2017-07-01

Landfilling is a cost-effective method, which makes it a widely used practice around the world, especially in developing countries. However, because of the improper management of landfills, high leachate leakage can have adverse impacts on soils, plants, groundwater, aquatic organisms, and, subsequently, human health. A comprehensive survey of the literature finds that the probabilistic quantification of uncertainty based on estimations of the human health risks due to landfill leachate contamination has rarely been reported. Hence, in the present study, the uncertainty about the human health risks from municipal solid waste landfill leachate contamination to children and adults was quantified to investigate its long-term risks by using a Monte Carlo simulation framework for selected heavy metals. The Turbhe sanitary landfill of Navi Mumbai, India, which was commissioned in the recent past, was selected to understand the fate and transport of heavy metals in leachate. A large residential area is located near the site, which makes the risk assessment problem both crucial and challenging. In this article, an integral approach in the form of a framework has been proposed to quantify the uncertainty that is intrinsic to human health risk estimation. A set of nonparametric cubic splines was fitted to identify the nonlinear seasonal trend in leachate quality parameters. LandSim 2.5, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and further uncertainty in noncarcinogenic human health risk was estimated using a Monte Carlo simulation followed by univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

A Scalable Data Integration and Analysis Architecture for Sensor Data of Pediatric Asthma.

PubMed

Stripelis, Dimitris; Ambite, José Luis; Chiang, Yao-Yi; Eckel, Sandrah P; Habre, Rima

2017-04-01

According to the Centers for Disease Control, in the United States there are 6.8 million children living with asthma. Despite the importance of the disease, the available prognostic tools are not sufficient for biomedical researchers to thoroughly investigate the potential risks of the disease at scale. To overcome these challenges we present a big data integration and analysis infrastructure developed by our Data and Software Coordination and Integration Center (DSCIC) of the NIBIB-funded Pediatric Research using Integrated Sensor Monitoring Systems (PRISMS) program. Our goal is to help biomedical researchers to efficiently predict and prevent asthma attacks. The PRISMS-DSCIC is responsible for collecting, integrating, storing, and analyzing real-time environmental, physiological and behavioral data obtained from heterogeneous sensor and traditional data sources. Our architecture is based on the Apache Kafka, Spark and Hadoop frameworks and PostgreSQL DBMS. A main contribution of this work is extending the Spark framework with a mediation layer, based on logical schema mappings and query rewriting, to facilitate data analysis over a consistent harmonized schema. The system provides both batch and stream analytic capabilities over the massive data generated by wearable and fixed sensors.

Science framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions, Part 1. Science basis and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bradford, John B.; Bybee, Jared; Campbell, Steve; Carlson, John; Christiansen, Thomas J; Clause, Karen J.; Collins, Gail; Crist, Michele R.; Dinkins, Jonathan B.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Edwards, Fred; Espinosa, Shawn; Griffin, Kathleen A.; Griffin, Paul; Haas, Jessica R.; Hanser, Steven E.; Havlina, Douglas W.; Henke, Kenneth F.; Hennig, Jacob D.; Joyce, Linda A; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Kulpa, Sarah M; Kurth, Laurie L; Maestas, Jeremy D; Manning, Mary E.; Mayer, Kenneth E.; Mealor, Brian A.; McCarthy, Clinton; Pellant, Mike; Perea, Marco A.; Prentice, Karen L.; Pyke, David A.; Wiechman , Lief A.; Wuenschel, Amarina

2017-01-01

The Science Framework is intended to link the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy with long-term strategic conservation actions in the sagebrush biome. The Science Framework provides a multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies within the sagebrush biome. The emphasis is on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). The approach provided in the Science Framework links sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive plant species to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. A geospatial process is presented that overlays information on ecosystem resilience and resistance, species habitats, and predominant threats and that can be used at the mid-scale to prioritize areas for management. A resilience and resistance habitat matrix is provided that can help decisionmakers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies. Prioritized areas and management strategies can be refined by managers and stakeholders at the local scale based on higher resolution data and local knowledge. Decision tools are discussed for determining appropriate management actions for areas that are prioritized for management. Geospatial data, maps, and models are provided through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ScienceBase and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Landscape Approach Data Portal. The Science Framework is intended to be adaptive and will be updated as additional data become available on other values and species at risk. It is anticipated that the Science Framework will be widely used to: (1) inform emerging strategies to conserve sagebrush ecosystems, sagebrush dependent species, and human uses of the sagebrush system, and (2) assist managers in prioritizing and planning on-the-ground restoration and mitigation actions across the sagebrush biome.

Sustaining Engagements for Integrated Heat-Health Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trtanj, J.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events are on the rise, evidenced by the record breaking heat in the summer of 2016 in the US, increased heat-related death toll in south Asia, and projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The impacts, responses and adaptation to extreme heat are inherently local or region in nature and require multisector engagement to manage current and future heat risks. Understanding the character of the information demand, who needs it, when and how it is needed, how it is used, and the remaining research questions, requires sustained engagement of multiple science and decision making communities. The construct of Integrated Information Systems provides the framework that sustains this dialogue, supports the production of useful information, and the translation of knowledge to action. The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), a multi-agency collaboration, working at state, local and international levels, designed to facilitate an integrated approach to providing a suite of decision support services that reduce heat-related illness and death. NIHHIS sustains engagement across the public health, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, planning, housing, communication, climate, weather and other science communities. This presentation will highlight NIHHS sustained engagements in the Rio Grande Bravo region, other NIHHIS pilots, and international efforts building on the NIHHIS framework. NIHHIS, launched by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2015, now has over eight Federal partners and a burgeoning mix of pilots, projects and partners at state, local and international levels.

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sezen, Halil; Aldemir, Tunc; Denning, R.

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

Toward Multi-Model Frameworks Addressing Multi-Sector Dynamics, Risks, and Resiliency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Barrett, C.; Kraucunas, I.; Rice, J.; Sue Wing, I.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Reed, P. M.

2016-12-01

This presentation will report on the findings of recent modeling studies and a series of workshops and other efforts convened under the auspices of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to improve integration of critical infrastructure, natural resources, integrated assessment, and human systems modeling. The focus is issues related to drought and increased variability of water supply at the energy-water-land nexus. One motivation for the effort is the potential for impact cascades across coupled built, natural, and socioeconomic systems stressed by social and environmental change. The design is for an adaptable modeling framework that will includes a repository of independently-developed modeling tools of varying complexity - from coarser grid, longer time-horizon to higher-resolution shorter-term models of socioeconomic systems, infrastructure, and natural resources. The models draw from three interlocking research communities: Earth system, impacts/adaptation/vulnerability, and integrated assessment. A key lesson will be explored, namely the importance of defining a clear use perspective to limit dimensionality, focus modeling, and facilitate uncertainty characterization and communication.

Bayesian Knowledge Fusion in Prognostics and Health Management—A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabiei, Masoud; Modarres, Mohammad; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali

2011-03-01

In the past few years, a research effort has been in progress at University of Maryland to develop a Bayesian framework based on Physics of Failure (PoF) for risk assessment and fleet management of aging airframes. Despite significant achievements in modelling of crack growth behavior using fracture mechanics, it is still of great interest to find practical techniques for monitoring the crack growth instances using nondestructive inspection and to integrate such inspection results with the fracture mechanics models to improve the predictions. The ultimate goal of this effort is to develop an integrated probabilistic framework for utilizing all of the available information to come up with enhanced (less uncertain) predictions for structural health of the aircraft in future missions. Such information includes material level fatigue models and test data, health monitoring measurements and inspection field data. In this paper, a case study of using Bayesian fusion technique for integrating information from multiple sources in a structural health management problem is presented.

[The socio-hygienic monitoring as an integral system for health risk assessment and risk management at the regional level].

PubMed

Kuzmin, S V; Gurvich, V B; Dikonskaya, O V; Malykh, O L; Yarushin, S V; Romanov, S V; Kornilkov, A S

2013-01-01

The information and analytical framework for the introduction of health risk assessment and risk management methodologies in the Sverdlovsk Region is the system of socio-hygienic monitoring. Techniques of risk management that take into account the choice of most cost-effective and efficient actions for improvement of the sanitary and epidemiologic situation at the level of the region, municipality, or a business entity of the Russian Federation, have been developed and proposed. To assess the efficiency of planning and activities for health risk management common method approaches and economic methods of "cost-effectiveness" and "cost-benefit" analyses provided in method recommendations and introduced in the Russian Federation are applied.

Generalizable open source urban water portfolio simulation framework demonstrated using a multi-objective risk-based planning benchmark problem.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trindade, B. C.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

The growing access and reduced cost for computing power in recent years has promoted rapid development and application of multi-objective water supply portfolio planning. As this trend continues there is a pressing need for flexible risk-based simulation frameworks and improved algorithm benchmarking for emerging classes of water supply planning and management problems. This work contributes the Water Utilities Management and Planning (WUMP) model: a generalizable and open source simulation framework designed to capture how water utilities can minimize operational and financial risks by regionally coordinating planning and management choices, i.e. making more efficient and coordinated use of restrictions, water transfers and financial hedging combined with possible construction of new infrastructure. We introduce the WUMP simulation framework as part of a new multi-objective benchmark problem for planning and management of regionally integrated water utility companies. In this problem, a group of fictitious water utilities seek to balance the use of the mentioned reliability driven actions (e.g., restrictions, water transfers and infrastructure pathways) and their inherent financial risks. Several traits of this problem make it ideal for a benchmark problem, namely the presence of (1) strong non-linearities and discontinuities in the Pareto front caused by the step-wise nature of the decision making formulation and by the abrupt addition of storage through infrastructure construction, (2) noise due to the stochastic nature of the streamflows and water demands, and (3) non-separability resulting from the cooperative formulation of the problem, in which decisions made by stakeholder may substantially impact others. Both the open source WUMP simulation framework and its demonstration in a challenging benchmarking example hold value for promoting broader advances in urban water supply portfolio planning for regions confronting change.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

Elements of an integrated health monitoring framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, Michael; Elgamal, Ahmed; Conte, Joel P.; Masri, Sami; Fountain, Tony; Gupta, Amarnath; Trivedi, Mohan; El Zarki, Magda

2003-07-01

Internet technologies are increasingly facilitating real-time monitoring of Bridges and Highways. The advances in wireless communications for instance, are allowing practical deployments for large extended systems. Sensor data, including video signals, can be used for long-term condition assessment, traffic-load regulation, emergency response, and seismic safety applications. Computer-based automated signal-analysis algorithms routinely process the incoming data and determine anomalies based on pre-defined response thresholds and more involved signal analysis techniques. Upon authentication, appropriate action may be authorized for maintenance, early warning, and/or emergency response. In such a strategy, data from thousands of sensors can be analyzed with near real-time and long-term assessment and decision-making implications. Addressing the above, a flexible and scalable (e.g., for an entire Highway system, or portfolio of Networked Civil Infrastructure) software architecture/framework is being developed and implemented. This framework will network and integrate real-time heterogeneous sensor data, database and archiving systems, computer vision, data analysis and interpretation, physics-based numerical simulation of complex structural systems, visualization, reliability & risk analysis, and rational statistical decision-making procedures. Thus, within this framework, data is converted into information, information into knowledge, and knowledge into decision at the end of the pipeline. Such a decision-support system contributes to the vitality of our economy, as rehabilitation, renewal, replacement, and/or maintenance of this infrastructure are estimated to require expenditures in the Trillion-dollar range nationwide, including issues of Homeland security and natural disaster mitigation. A pilot website (http://bridge.ucsd.edu/compositedeck.html) currently depicts some basic elements of the envisioned integrated health monitoring analysis framework.

Overseas Trained Teachers in England: A Policy Framework for Social and Professional Integration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Paul Washington

2008-01-01

Overseas trained teachers (OTTs) have become an important part of the make-up of England's primary and secondary education system. Through inadequate, and in some cases a lack of, initial induction and support for professional development, many are at risk of performing sub-optimally and some have become an endangered species. Failure to integrate…

Discrimination and Mexican-Origin Adolescents' Adjustment: The Moderating Roles of Adolescents', Mothers', and Fathers' Cultural Orientations and Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delgado, Melissa Y.; Updegraff, Kimberly A.; Roosa, Mark W.; Umana-Taylor, Adriana J.

2011-01-01

Drawing on Garcia Coll et al.'s integrative framework and the risk and resilience model, this study examined the relationships between adolescents' perceived discrimination and psychosocial adjustment and the moderating roles of adolescents', mothers', and fathers' cultural orientations and values, and adolescent gender in a sample of 246…

From theoretical concepts to policies and applied programmes: the landscape of integration of oral health in primary care.

PubMed

Harnagea, Hermina; Lamothe, Lise; Couturier, Yves; Esfandiari, Shahrokh; Voyer, René; Charbonneau, Anne; Emami, Elham

2018-02-15

Despite its importance, the integration of oral health into primary care is still an emerging practice in the field of health care services. This scoping review aims to map the literature and provide a summary on the conceptual frameworks, policies and programs related to this concept. Using the Levac et al. six-stage framework, we performed a systematic search of electronic databases, organizational websites and grey literature from 1978 to April 2016. All relevant original publications with a focus on the integration of oral health into primary care were retrieved. Content analyses were performed to synthesize the results. From a total of 1619 citations, 67 publications were included in the review. Two conceptual frameworks were identified. Policies regarding oral heath integration into primary care were mostly oriented toward common risk factors approach and care coordination processes. In general, oral health integrated care programs were designed in the public health sector and based on partnerships with various private and public health organizations, governmental bodies and academic institutions. These programmes used various strategies to empower oral health integrated care, including building interdisciplinary networks, training non-dental care providers, oral health champion modelling, enabling care linkages and care coordinated process, as well as the use of e-health technologies. The majority of studies on the programs outcomes were descriptive in nature without reporting long-term outcomes. This scoping review provided a comprehensive overview on the concept of integration of oral health in primary care. The findings identified major gaps in reported programs outcomes mainly because of the lack of related research. However, the results could be considered as a first step in the development of health care policies that support collaborative practices and patient-centred care in the field of primary care sector.

Eban HIV/STD risk reduction intervention: conceptual basis and procedures.

PubMed

2008-09-01

To describe the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention being evaluated in the NIMH Multisite HIV/STD Prevention trial for heterosexual African American couples, including the integrated theoretical framework, the structure, core elements and procedures of the intervention, and how the content was shaped by culturally congruent concepts to address the needs of the study target population. The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention is designed to address multilevel individual-, interpersonal-, and community-level factors that contribute to HIV/STD transmission risk behaviors among heterosexual African American couples who are HIV serodiscordant. The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention employs a mixed modality, couple-based approach that is based on an integrated ecological framework incorporating social cognitive theory and uses an Afrocentric paradigm that is informed by previous evidence-based couples HIV prevention interventions. For this randomized controlled trial, African American serodiscordant couples were recruited from 4 urban sites (Atlanta, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia) and were randomized to either the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention (treatment condition) or a Health Promotion Intervention that served as an attentional control condition. Both interventions had 4 individual couple sessions and 4 group sessions, but only the treatment condition was focused on reducing HIV/STD risk behaviors. Behavioral and biological data were collected at baseline, immediately after the intervention, and at 6 and 12 months. The theoretical framework, core elements, and content of each session are described and lessons learned from this intervention trial are discussed. An HIV prevention intervention combining couple and group sessions can be feasibly implemented with African American HIV-serodiscordant couples who remain at high risk of HIV/STD transmission. The lessons learned from the trial suggest that the participants responded very well to both the couple and the group sessions. Participant feedback suggests that the cultural congruence of the intervention and use of African American cofacilitators made them feel comfortable disclosing risky behaviors. Participant feedback also suggests that the intervention's couple-based focus on enhancing dyadic communication and decision-making skills was key to helping the couples work together to overcome barriers to using condoms. Participant and facilitator evaluations of the Eban Risk Reduction Intervention suggest that couples responded well to the Afrocentric content and mixed modalities of the intervention sessions. Couple sessions were optimal for enhancing interpersonal and microlevel factors, including communication, problem solving, and decision making.

The Software Architecture of the Upgraded ESA DRAMA Software Suite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebschull, Christopher; Flegel, Sven; Gelhaus, Johannes; Mockel, Marek; Braun, Vitali; Radtke, Jonas; Wiedemann, Carsten; Vorsmann, Peter; Sanchez-Ortiz, Noelia; Krag, Holger

2013-08-01

In the beginnings of man's space flight activities there was the belief that space is so big that everybody could use it without any repercussions. However during the last six decades the increasing use of Earth's orbits has lead to a rapid growth in the space debris environment, which has a big influence on current and future space missions. For this reason ESA issued the "Requirements on Space Debris Mitigation for ESA Projects" [1] in 2008, which apply to all ESA missions henceforth. The DRAMA (Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis) software suite had been developed to support the planning of space missions to comply with these requirements. During the last year the DRAMA software suite has been upgraded under ESA contract by TUBS and DEIMOS to include additional tools and increase the performance of existing ones. This paper describes the overall software architecture of the ESA DRAMA software suite. Specifically the new graphical user interface, which manages the five main tools ARES (Assessment of Risk Event Statistics), MIDAS (MASTER-based Impact Flux and Damage Assessment Software), OSCAR (Orbital Spacecraft Active Removal), CROC (Cross Section of Complex Bodies) and SARA (Re-entry Survival and Risk Analysis) is being discussed. The advancements are highlighted as well as the challenges that arise from the integration of the five tool interfaces. A framework had been developed at the ILR and was used for MASTER-2009 and PROOF-2009. The Java based GUI framework, enables the cross-platform deployment, and its underlying model-view-presenter (MVP) software pattern, meet strict design requirements necessary to ensure a robust and reliable method of operation in an environment where the GUI is separated from the processing back-end. While the GUI framework evolved with each project, allowing an increasing degree of integration of services like validators for input fields, it has also increased in complexity. The paper will conclude with an outlook on the future development of the GUI framework, where the potential for advancements will be shown.

Adolescent Risk Screening Instruments for Primary Care: An Integrative Review Utilizing the Donabedian Framework.

PubMed

Hiott, Deanna B; Phillips, Shannon; Amella, Elaine

2017-07-31

Adolescent risk-taking behavior choices can affect future health outcomes. The purpose of this integrative literature review is to evaluate adolescent risk screening instruments available to primary care providers in the United States using the Donabedian Framework of structure, process, and outcome. To examine the literature concerning multidimensional adolescent risk screening instruments available in the United States for use in the primary care setting, library searches, ancestry searches, and Internet searches were conducted. Library searches included a systematic search of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Academic Search Premier, Health Source Nursing Academic Ed, Medline, PsycINFO, the Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection, and PubMed databases with CINAHL headings using the following Boolean search terms: "primary care" and screening and pediatric. Criteria for inclusion consisted of studies conducted in the United States that involved broad multidimensional adolescent risk screening instruments for use in the pediatric primary care setting. Instruments that focused solely on one unhealthy behavior were excluded, as were developmental screens and screens not validated or designed for all ages of adolescents. In all 25 manuscripts reviewed, 16 screens met the inclusion criteria and were included in the study. These 16 screens were examined for factors associated with the Donabedian structure-process-outcome model. This review revealed that many screens contain structural issues related to cost and length that inhibit provider implementation in the primary care setting. Process limitations regarding the report method and administration format were also identified. The Pediatric Symptom Checklist was identified as a free, short tool that is valid and reliable.

Fishing in acid waters: A vulnerability assessment of the Norwegian fishing industry in the face of increasing ocean acidification.

PubMed

Heinrich, Luise; Krause, Torsten

2017-07-01

Ocean acidification (OA) describes a change in the ocean's carbonate chemistry. Whereas its chemical processes are largely understood, the biological and socioeconomic consequences particularly in relation to fisheries are less known. Norway is a major fishing nation worldwide and is potentially affected by OA. To improve the understanding of the socioeconomic consequences of OA, we conducted a risk assessment among the Norwegian counties using a modified version of a risk assessment framework introduced in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's "Special Report: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation," which considers risk to be the sum of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Our results show that about 13 of 19 counties are likely to experience moderate to high risk from OA. We highlight that the success of integrated risk assessments highly depends on the availability of detailed environmental, economic, and societal data. In the case of Norway, modeling data regarding the progress of OA, improved information on potential biological impacts on a larger number of species, and statistical data on social variables are required. We conclude that although still in its infancy, integrated risk assessments are important prerequisites for any form of interdisciplinary research on OA and the development of successful response strategies. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:778-789. ©2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

PubMed

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Program and Project Management Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Cassandra D.

2002-01-01

The primary objective of this project was to develop a framework and system architecture for integrating program and project management tools that may be applied consistently throughout Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to optimize planning, cost estimating, risk management, and project control. Project management methodology used in building interactive systems to accommodate the needs of the project managers is applied as a key component in assessing the usefulness and applicability of the framework and tools developed. Research for the project included investigation and analysis of industrial practices, KSC standards, policies, and techniques, Systems Management Office (SMO) personnel, and other documented experiences of project management experts. In addition, this project documents best practices derived from the literature as well as new or developing project management models, practices, and techniques.

TACKLING THE GROWING DIABETES BURDEN IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING OUTCOMES IN STROKE PATIENTS

PubMed Central

Ovbiagele, Bruce

2014-01-01

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 80% of worldwide diabetes (DM)-related deaths presently occur in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC), and left unchecked these DM-related deaths will likely double over the next 20 years. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most prevalent and detrimental complication of DM: doubling the risk of CVD events (including stroke) and accounting for up to 80% of DM-related deaths. Given the aforementioned, interventions targeted at reducing CVD risk among people with DM are integral to limiting DM-related morbidity and mortality in LMIC, a majority of which are located in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, SSA is contextually unique: socioeconomic obstacles, cultural barriers, under-diagnosis, uncoordinated care, and shortage of physicians currently limit the capacity of SSA countries to implement CVD prevention among people with DM in a timely and sustainable manner. This article proposes a theory-based framework for conceptualizing integrated protocol-driven risk factor patient self-management interventions that could be adopted or adapted in future studies among hospitalized stroke patients with DM encountered in SSA. These interventions include systematic health education at hospital discharge, use of post-discharge trained community lay navigators, implementation of nurse-led group clinics and administration of health technology (personalized phone text messaging and home tele-monitoring), all aimed at increasing patient self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation for sustained adherence to therapies proven to reduce CVD event risk. PMID:25475149

Supporting productive thinking: The semiotic context for Cognitive Systems Engineering (CSE).

PubMed

Flach, John

2017-03-01

The central thesis of this paper is that Rasmussen framed his approach to Cognitive Systems Engineering from the perspective of a Triadic Semiotic Model. This frame became the context for integrating multiple intellectual threads including Control Theory, Information Theory, Ecological Psychology, and Gestalt Psychology into a coherent theoretical framework. The case is made that the triadic semiotic framework is essential for a complete appreciation of the constructs that were central to Rasmussen's approach: Abstraction Hierarchy, Skill-Rules-Knowledge Model, Ecological Interface Design, and Proactive Risk Management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general framework for parametric survival analysis.

PubMed

Crowther, Michael J; Lambert, Paul C

2014-12-30

Parametric survival models are being increasingly used as an alternative to the Cox model in biomedical research. Through direct modelling of the baseline hazard function, we can gain greater understanding of the risk profile of patients over time, obtaining absolute measures of risk. Commonly used parametric survival models, such as the Weibull, make restrictive assumptions of the baseline hazard function, such as monotonicity, which is often violated in clinical datasets. In this article, we extend the general framework of parametric survival models proposed by Crowther and Lambert (Journal of Statistical Software 53:12, 2013), to incorporate relative survival, and robust and cluster robust standard errors. We describe the general framework through three applications to clinical datasets, in particular, illustrating the use of restricted cubic splines, modelled on the log hazard scale, to provide a highly flexible survival modelling framework. Through the use of restricted cubic splines, we can derive the cumulative hazard function analytically beyond the boundary knots, resulting in a combined analytic/numerical approach, which substantially improves the estimation process compared with only using numerical integration. User-friendly Stata software is provided, which significantly extends parametric survival models available in standard software. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Robust approaches to quantification of margin and uncertainty for sparse data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hund, Lauren; Schroeder, Benjamin B.; Rumsey, Kelin

Characterizing the tails of probability distributions plays a key role in quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU), where the goal is characterization of low probability, high consequence events based on continuous measures of performance. When data are collected using physical experimentation, probability distributions are typically fit using statistical methods based on the collected data, and these parametric distributional assumptions are often used to extrapolate about the extreme tail behavior of the underlying probability distribution. In this project, we character- ize the risk associated with such tail extrapolation. Specifically, we conducted a scaling study to demonstrate the large magnitude of themore » risk; then, we developed new methods for communicat- ing risk associated with tail extrapolation from unvalidated statistical models; lastly, we proposed a Bayesian data-integration framework to mitigate tail extrapolation risk through integrating ad- ditional information. We conclude that decision-making using QMU is a complex process that cannot be achieved using statistical analyses alone.« less

The Ensemble Canon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MIittman, David S

2011-01-01

Ensemble is an open architecture for the development, integration, and deployment of mission operations software. Fundamentally, it is an adaptation of the Eclipse Rich Client Platform (RCP), a widespread, stable, and supported framework for component-based application development. By capitalizing on the maturity and availability of the Eclipse RCP, Ensemble offers a low-risk, politically neutral path towards a tighter integration of operations tools. The Ensemble project is a highly successful, ongoing collaboration among NASA Centers. Since 2004, the Ensemble project has supported the development of mission operations software for NASA's Exploration Systems, Science, and Space Operations Directorates.

Planetary boundaries for a blue planet.

PubMed

Nash, Kirsty L; Cvitanovic, Christopher; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Halpern, Benjamin S; Milner-Gulland, E J; Watson, Reg A; Blanchard, Julia L

2017-11-01

Concepts underpinning the planetary boundaries framework are being incorporated into multilateral discussions on sustainability, influencing international environmental policy development. Research underlying the boundaries has primarily focused on terrestrial systems, despite the fundamental role of marine biomes for Earth system function and societal wellbeing, seriously hindering the efficacy of the boundary approach. We explore boundaries from a marine perspective. For each boundary, we show how improved integration of marine systems influences our understanding of the risk of crossing these limits. Better integration of marine systems is essential if planetary boundaries are to inform Earth system governance.

Seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winar, Setya

Earthquakes have long been feared as one of nature's most terrifying and devastating events. Although seismic codes clearly exist in countries with a high seismic risk to save lives and human suffering, earthquakes still continue to cause tragic events with high death tolls, particularly due to the collapse of widespread non-engineered buildings with non-seismic resistance in developing countries such as Indonesia. The implementation of seismic codes in non-engineered construction is the key to ensuring earthquake safety. In fact, such implementation is not simple, because it comprises all forms of cross disciplinary and cross sectoral linkages at different levels of understanding, commitment, and skill. This fact suggests that a widely agreed framework can help to harmonise the various perspectives. Hence, this research is aimed at developing an integrated framework for guiding and monitoring seismic risk reduction of non-engineered buildings in Indonesia via a risk management method.Primarily, the proposed framework for the study has drawn heavily on wider literature, the three existing frameworks around the world, and on the contribution of various stakeholders who participated in the study. A postal questionnaire survey, selected interviews, and workshop event constituted the primary data collection methods. As a robust framework needed to be achieved, the following two workshop events, which were conducted in Yogyakarta City and Bengkulu City in Indonesia, were carried out for practicality, validity, and moderation or any identifiable improvement requirements. The data collected was analysed with the assistance of SPSS and NVivo software programmes.This research found that the content of the proposed framework comprises 63 pairs of characteristic-indicators complemented by (a) three important factors of effective seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings, (b) three guiding principles for sustainable dissemination to the grass root communities and (c) a map of agents of change. Among the 63 pairs, there are 19 technical interventions and 44 non-technical interventions. These findings contribute to the wider knowledge in the domain of the seismic risk management of non-engineered buildings, in order to: (a) provide a basis for effective political advocacy, (b) reflect the multidimensional and inter-disciplinary nature of seismic risk reduction, (c) assist a wide range of users in determining roles, responsibilities, and accountabilities, and (d) provide the basis for setting goals and targets.

A tiered approach for integrating exposure and dosimetry with ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

High-throughput (HT) risk screening approaches apply in vitro dose-response data to estimate potential health risks that arise from exposure to chemicals. However, much uncertainty is inherent in relating bioactivities observed in an in vitro system to the perturbations of biological mechanisms that lead to apical adverse health outcomes in living organisms. The chemical-agnostic Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework addresses this uncertainty by acting as a scaffold onto which pathway-based data can be arranged to aid in the understanding of in vitro toxicity testing results. In addition, risk estimation also requires reconciling chemical concentrations sufficient to produce bioactivity in vitro with concentrations that trigger a molecular initiating event (MIE) at the relevant biological target in vivo. Such target site exposures (TSEs) can be estimated using computational models to integrate exposure information with a chemical’s absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination (ADME) processes. In this presentation, the utility of a tiered approach for integrating exposure, ADME, and hazard into risk-based decision making will be demonstrated using several case studies, along with the investigation of how uncertainties in exposure and ADME might impact risk estimates. These case studies involve 1) identifying and prioritizing chemicals capable of altering biological pathways based on their potential to reach an in vivo target; 2) evaluating the infl

Drinking water quality management: a holistic approach.

PubMed

Rizak, S; Cunliffe, D; Sinclair, M; Vulcano, R; Howard, J; Hrudey, S; Callan, P

2003-01-01

A growing list of water contaminants has led to some water suppliers relying primarily on compliance monitoring as a mechanism for managing drinking water quality. While such monitoring is a necessary part of drinking water quality management, experiences with waterborne disease threats and outbreaks have shown that compliance monitoring for numerical limits is not, in itself, sufficient to guarantee the safety and quality of drinking water supplies. To address these issues, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) has developed a Framework for Management of Drinking Water Quality (the Framework) for incorporation in the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines, the primary reference on drinking water quality in Australia. The Framework was developed specifically for drinking water supplies and provides a comprehensive and preventive risk management approach from catchment to consumer. It includes holistic guidance on a range of issues considered good practice for system management. The Framework addresses four key areas: Commitment to Drinking Water Quality Management, System Analysis and System Management, Supporting Requirements, and Review. The Framework represents a significantly enhanced approach to the management and regulation of drinking water quality and offers a flexible and proactive means of optimising drinking water quality and protecting public health. Rather than the primary reliance on compliance monitoring, the Framework emphasises prevention, the importance of risk assessment, maintaining the integrity of water supply systems and application of multiple barriers to assure protection of public health. Development of the Framework was undertaken in collaboration with the water industry, regulators and other stakeholder, and will promote a common and unified approach to drinking water quality management throughout Australia. The Framework has attracted international interest.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Veeramany, Arun

This research report summaries the development and evaluation of a prototypic enhanced risk monitor (ERM) methodology (framework) that includes alternative risk metrics and uncertainty analysis. This updated ERM methodology accounts for uncertainty in the equipment condition assessment (ECA), the prognostic result, and the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model. It is anticipated that the ability to characterize uncertainty in the estimated risk and update the risk estimates in real time based on equipment condition assessment (ECA) will provide a mechanism for optimizing plant performance while staying within specified safety margins. These results (based on impacting active component O&M using real-time equipmentmore » condition information) are a step towards ERMs that, if integrated with AR supervisory plant control systems, can help control O&M costs and improve affordability of advanced reactors.« less

Integrating social media and remote sensing data in a model framework to identify vulnerable areas in coastal cities after disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalakrishnan, G.

2013-12-01

In the aftermath of man-made disasters such as oil spills or natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods, city planners and residents of affected areas are often concerned about future vulnerabilities and rebuilding the area to increase resilience. However, identifying locations in the affected area that are most impacted by the disaster, the associated human health risks and potential vulnerabilities often require a monitoring effort that is expensive, time-consuming and difficult to implement in disaster-hit areas using traditional monitoring techniques. This project presents a framework for identifying areas that are most likely to be impacted by disasters by integrating remote sensing data and information from social media networks, including Twitter streams. The framework was tested for New York, coastal New Jersey and Staten Island in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Vulnerable areas were identified using anomaly detection and the results were mapped against measurements collected on the ground. A correlation coefficient of 0.78 was obtained. Uncertainty in model predictions was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations.

Do smartphone applications in healthcare require a governance and legal framework? It depends on the application!

PubMed

Charani, Esmita; Castro-Sánchez, Enrique; Moore, Luke S P; Holmes, Alison

2014-02-14

The fast pace of technological improvement and the rapid development and adoption of healthcare applications present crucial challenges for clinicians, users and policy makers. Some of the most pressing dilemmas include the need to ensure the safety of applications and establish their cost-effectiveness while engaging patients and users to optimize their integration into health decision-making. Healthcare organizations need to consider the risk of fragmenting clinical practice within the organization as a result of too many apps being developed or used, as well as mechanisms for app integration into the wider electronic health records through development of governance framework for their use. The impact of app use on the interactions between clinicians and patients needs to be explored, together with the skills required for both groups to benefit from the use of apps. Although healthcare and academic institutions should support the improvements offered by technological advances, they must strive to do so within robust governance frameworks, after sound evaluation of clinical outcomes and examination of potential unintended consequences.

A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

2017-12-01

Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

Risk Based Inspection Methodology and Software Applied to Atmospheric Storage Tanks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topalis, P.; Korneliussen, G.; Hermanrud, J.; Steo, Y.

2012-05-01

A new risk-based inspection (RBI) methodology and software is presented in this paper. The objective of this work is to allow management of the inspections of atmospheric storage tanks in the most efficient way, while, at the same time, accident risks are minimized. The software has been built on the new risk framework architecture, a generic platform facilitating efficient and integrated development of software applications using risk models. The framework includes a library of risk models and the user interface is automatically produced on the basis of editable schemas. This risk-framework-based RBI tool has been applied in the context of RBI for above-ground atmospheric storage tanks (AST) but it has been designed with the objective of being generic enough to allow extension to the process plants in general. This RBI methodology is an evolution of an approach and mathematical models developed for Det Norske Veritas (DNV) and the American Petroleum Institute (API). The methodology assesses damage mechanism potential, degradation rates, probability of failure (PoF), consequence of failure (CoF) in terms of environmental damage and financial loss, risk and inspection intervals and techniques. The scope includes assessment of the tank floor for soil-side external corrosion and product-side internal corrosion and the tank shell courses for atmospheric corrosion and internal thinning. It also includes preliminary assessment for brittle fracture and cracking. The data are structured according to an asset hierarchy including Plant, Production Unit, Process Unit, Tag, Part and Inspection levels and the data are inherited / defaulted seamlessly from a higher hierarchy level to a lower level. The user interface includes synchronized hierarchy tree browsing, dynamic editor and grid-view editing and active reports with drill-in capability.

Assessing risks to multiple resources affected by wildfire and forest management using an integrated probabilistic framework

Treesearch

Steven P. Norman; Danny C. Lee; Sandra Jacobson; Christine Damiani

2010-01-01

The tradeoffs that surround forest management are inherently complex, often involving multiple temporal and spatial scales. For example, conflicts may result when fuel treatments are designed to mediate long-term fuel hazards, but activities could impair sensitive aquatic habitat or degrade wildlife habitat in the short term. This complexity makes it hard for managers...

A systematic review of socio-economic assessments in support of coastal zone management (1992-2011).

PubMed

Le Gentil, Eric; Mongruel, Rémi

2015-02-01

Cooperation between the social and natural sciences has become essential in order to encompass all the dimensions of coastal zone management. Socio-economic approaches are increasingly recommended to complement integrated assessment in support of these initiatives. A systematic review of the academic literature was carried out in order to analyze the main types of socio-economic assessments used to inform the coastal zone management process as well as their effectiveness. A corpus of 1682 articles published between 1992 and 2011 was identified by means of the representative coverage approach, from which 170 were selected by applying inclusion/exclusion criteria and then classified using a content analysis methodology. The percentage of articles that mention the use of socio-economic assessment in support of coastal zone management initiatives is increasing but remains relatively low. The review examines the links between the issues addressed by integrated assessments and the chosen analytical frameworks as well as the various economic assessment methods which are used in the successive steps of the coastal zone management process. The results show that i) analytical frameworks such as 'risk and vulnerability', 'DPSIR', 'valuation', 'ecosystem services' and 'preferences' are likely to lead to effective integration of social sciences in coastal zone management research while 'integration', 'sustainability' and 'participation' remain difficult to operationalize, ii) risk assessments are insufficiently implemented in developing countries, and iii) indicator systems in support of multi-criteria analyses could be used during more stages of the coastal zone management process. Finally, it is suggested that improved collaboration between science and management would require that scientists currently involved in coastal zone management processes further educate themselves in integrated assessment approaches and participatory methodologies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elementary Integrated Curriculum Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montgomery County Public Schools, 2010

2010-01-01

The Elementary Integrated Curriculum (EIC) Framework is the guiding curriculum document for the Elementary Integrated Curriculum and represents the elementary portion of the Montgomery County (Maryland) Public Schools (MCPS) Pre-K-12 Curriculum Frameworks. The EIC Framework contains the detailed indicators and objectives that describe what…

Preparedness and response to terrorism: a framework for public health action.

PubMed

Gofin, Rosa

2005-02-01

Political group violence in the form of terrorist actions has become a reality worldwide, affecting the health and economies of populations. As a consequence, preparedness and response are becoming an integral part of public health action. Risk appraisal, preservation of human and civil rights and communications within and between countries are all issues to be considered in the process. The combination of the natural history of terrorist actions and the epidemiological triangle model has been adapted in this paper and suggested as a comprehensive approach for preparedness and action. It covers preparedness (pre-event), response (event) and the consequences (post-event) of a terrorist attack. It takes into account the human factor, vectors and environment involved in each one of the phases. Terrorism is a global reality with varying underlying causes, manifestations and impact on the health of the public. Preparedness, response and rehabilitation are an integral part of public health action. Consideration of the pre-event, event and post-event phases in terrorist actions, together with the human factor, vector/agent and environment in each of these phases, offers a framework for public health preparedness, response and rehabilitation. Planning should consider risk assessment, risk communication, inter-sectorial cooperation, enactment of laws and regulations which consider protection of the public's health and civil liberties. Allocation of resources would need to make allowance for maintenance and development of ongoing public health activities.

How to govern physician-hospital exchanges: contractual and relational issues in Belgian hospitals.

PubMed

Trybou, Jeroen; Gemmel, Paul; Annemans, Lieven

2014-07-01

Our aim was to investigate contractual mechanisms in physician-hospital exchanges. The concepts of risk-sharing and the nature of physician-hospital exchanges - transactional versus relational - were studied. Two qualitative case studies were performed in Belgium. Hospital executives and physicians were interviewed to develop an in-depth understanding of contractual and relational issues that shape physician-hospital contracting in acute care hospitals. The underlying theoretical concepts of agency theory and social exchange theory were used to analyse the data. Our study found that physician-hospital contracting is highly complex. The contract is far more than an economic instrument governing financial aspects. The effect of the contract on the nature of exchange - whether transactional or relational - also needs to be considered. While it can be argued that contractual governance methods are increasingly necessary to overcome the difficulties that arise from the fragmented payment framework by aligning incentives and sharing financial risk, they undermine the necessary relational governance. Relational qualities such as mutual trust and an integrative view on physician-hospital exchanges are threatened, and may be difficult to sustain, given the current fragmentary payment framework. Since health care policy makers are increasing the financial risk borne by health care providers, it can be argued that this also increases the need to share financial risk and to align incentives between physician and hospital. However, our study demonstrates that while economic alignment is important in determining physician-hospital contracts, the corresponding impact on working relationships should also be considered. Moreover, it is important to avoid a relationship between hospital and physician predominantly characterized by transactional exchanges thereby fostering an unhealthy us-and-them divide and mentality. Relational exchange is a valuable alternative to contractual exchange, stimulating an integrated hospital-physician relationship. Unfortunately, the fragmented payment framework characterized by unaligned incentives is perceived as an obstacle to realize effective collaboration. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Multi-dimensional perspectives of flood risk - using a participatory framework to develop new approaches to flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollason, Edward; Bracken, Louise; Hardy, Richard; Large, Andy

2017-04-01

Flooding is a major hazard across Europe which, since, 1998 has caused over €52 million in damages and displaced over half a million people. Climate change is predicted to increase the risks posed by flooding in the future. The 2007 EU Flood Directive cemented the use of flood risk maps as a central tool in understanding and communicating flood risk. Following recent flooding in England, an urgent need to integrate people living at risk from flooding into flood management approaches, encouraging flood resilience and the up-take of resilient activities has been acknowledged. The effective communication of flood risk information plays a major role in allowing those at risk to make effective decisions about flood risk and increase their resilience, however, there are emerging concerns over the effectiveness of current approaches. The research presented explores current approaches to flood risk communication in England and the effectiveness of these methods in encouraging resilient actions before and during flooding events. The research also investigates how flood risk communications could be undertaken more effectively, using a novel participatory framework to integrate the perspectives of those living at risk. The research uses co-production between local communities and researchers in the environmental sciences, using a participatory framework to bring together local knowledge of flood risk and flood communications. Using a local competency group, the research explores what those living at risk from flooding want from flood communications in order to develop new approaches to help those at risk understand and respond to floods. Suggestions for practice are refined by the communities to co-produce recommendations. The research finds that current approaches to real-time flood risk communication fail to forecast the significance of predicted floods, whilst flood maps lack detailed information about how floods occur, or use scientific terminology which people at risk find confusing or lacking in realistic grounding. This means users do not have information they find useful to make informed decisions about how to prepare for and respond to floods. Working together with at-risk participants, the research has developed new approaches for communicating flood risk. These approaches focus on understanding flood mechanisms and dynamics, to help participants imagine their flood risk and link potential scenarios to reality, and provide forecasts of predicted flooding at a variety of scales, allowing participants to assess the significance of predicted flooding and make more informed judgments on what action to take in response. The findings presented have significant implications for the way in which flood risk is communicated, changing the focus of mapping from probabilistic future scenarios to understanding flood dynamics and mechanisms. Such ways of communicating flood risk embrace how people would like to see risk communicated, and help those at risk grow their resilience. Communicating in such a way has wider implications for flood modelling and data collection. However, these represent potential opportunities to build more effective local partnerships for assessing and managing flood risks.

Why do children and adolescents bully their peers? A critical review of key theoretical frameworks.

PubMed

Thomas, Hannah J; Connor, Jason P; Scott, James G

2018-05-01

Bullying is a significant public health problem for children and adolescents worldwide. Evidence suggests that both being bullied (bullying victimisation) and bullying others (bullying perpetration) are associated with concurrent and future mental health problems. The onset and course of bullying perpetration are influenced by individual as well as systemic factors. Identifying effective solutions to address bullying requires a fundamental understanding of why it occurs. Drawing from multi-disciplinary domains, this review provides a summary and synthesis of the key theoretical frameworks applied to understanding and intervening on the issue of bullying. A number of explanatory models have been used to elucidate the dynamics of bullying, and broadly these correspond with either system (e.g., social-ecological, family systems, peer-group socialisation) or individual-level (e.g., developmental psychopathology, genetic, resource control, social-cognitive) frameworks. Each theory adds a unique perspective; however, no single framework comprehensively explains why bullying occurs. This review demonstrates that the integration of theoretical perspectives achieves a more nuanced understanding of bullying which is necessary for strengthening evidence-based interventions. Future progress requires researchers to integrate both the systems and individual-level theoretical frameworks to further improve current interventions. More effective intervention across different systems as well as tailoring interventions to the specific needs of the individuals directly involved in bullying will reduce exposure to a key risk factor for mental health problems.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Hirt, Evelyn H.; Dib, Gerges

This project involved the development of enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in Advanced Reactor (AdvRx) designs by integrating real-time information about equipment condition with risk monitors. Health monitoring techniques in combination with predictive estimates of component failure based on condition and risk monitors can serve to indicate the risk posed by continued operation in the presence of detected degradation. This combination of predictive health monitoring based on equipment condition assessment and risk monitors can also enable optimization of maintenance scheduling with respect to the economics of plant operation. This report summarizes PNNL’s multi-year project on the development andmore » evaluation of an ERM concept for active components while highlighting FY2016 accomplishments. Specifically, this report provides a status summary of the integration and demonstration of the prototypic ERM framework with the plant supervisory control algorithms being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and describes additional case studies conducted to assess sensitivity of the technology to different quantities. Supporting documentation on the software package to be provided to ONRL is incorporated in this report.« less

Evaluating a Web-Based Educational Module on Oral Cancer Examination Based on a Behavioral Framework.

PubMed

Wee, Alvin G; Zimmerman, Lani M; Pullen, Carol H; Allen, Carl M; Lambert, Paul M; Paskett, Electra D

2016-03-01

Patients at risk of developing oral and/or oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are more likely to see primary care providers (PCPs) than a dentist. Many PCPs do not regularly perform oral cancer examination (OCE). The purpose of this study was to design a web-based educational program based on a behavioral framework to encourage PCPs to conduct OCE. PCPs were solicited to provide feedback on the program and to evaluate their short-term knowledge. The integrated behavioral model was used to design the program. Fifteen PCPs (five in each group: physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) reviewed the program and took a posttest: (1) index of knowledge of risk factors for oral cancer (RiskOC) and (2) index of knowledge of diagnostic procedures for oral cancer (DiagOC). Findings from the process evaluation were mainly positive, with comments on the length of the program comprising the ten negative comments. No significant difference among groups of PCPs (physicians, physician assistants, and nurse practitioners) was detected for DiagOC (p = 0.43) or RiskOC (p = 0.201). A program on OPC for PCPs should be less than 40 min. Postviewing knowledge outcomes were similar for all PCPs. The web-based program on OPC based on a behavioral framework could have similar short-term knowledge outcomes for all PCPs and may increase the number of PCPs performing OCEs.

Risk management of hazardous substances in a circular economy.

PubMed

Bodar, Charles; Spijker, Job; Lijzen, Johannes; Waaijers-van der Loop, Susanne; Luit, Richard; Heugens, Evelyn; Janssen, Martien; Wassenaar, Pim; Traas, Theo

2018-04-15

The ambitions for a circular economy are high and unambiguous, but day-to-day experience shows that the transition still has many difficulties to overcome. One of the current hurdles is the presence of hazardous substances in waste streams that enter or re-enter into the environment or the technosphere. The key question is: do we have the appropriate risk management tools to control any risks that might arise from the re-using and recycling of materials? We present some recent cases that illustrate current practice and complexity in the risk management of newly-formed circular economy chains. We also highlight how separate legal frameworks are still disconnected from each other in these cases, and how circular economy initiatives interlink with the European REACH regulation. Furthermore, we introduce a novel scheme describing how to decide whether a(n)(additional) risk assessment is necessary with regard to the re-use of materials containing hazardous substances. Finally, we present our initial views on new concepts for the fundamental integration of sustainability and safety aspects. These concepts should be the building blocks for the near future shifts in both policy frameworks and voluntary initiatives that support a sound circular economy transition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling insurer-homeowner interactions in managing natural disaster risk.

PubMed

Kesete, Yohannes; Peng, Jiazhen; Gao, Yang; Shan, Xiaojun; Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Kruse, Jamie

2014-06-01

The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game-theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility-based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer-insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full-scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders-primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context: Activities of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Montalto, Franco; Solecki, William

2016-01-01

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

An Integrated Data-Driven Strategy for Safe-by-Design Nanoparticles: The FP7 MODERN Project.

PubMed

Brehm, Martin; Kafka, Alexander; Bamler, Markus; Kühne, Ralph; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Sikk, Lauri; Burk, Jaanus; Burk, Peeter; Tamm, Tarmo; Tämm, Kaido; Pokhrel, Suman; Mädler, Lutz; Kahru, Anne; Aruoja, Villem; Sihtmäe, Mariliis; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck; Sorensen, Peter B; Escorihuela, Laura; Roca, Carlos P; Fernández, Alberto; Giralt, Francesc; Rallo, Robert

2017-01-01

The development and implementation of safe-by-design strategies is key for the safe development of future generations of nanotechnology enabled products. The safety testing of the huge variety of nanomaterials that can be synthetized is unfeasible due to time and cost constraints. Computational modeling facilitates the implementation of alternative testing strategies in a time and cost effective way. The development of predictive nanotoxicology models requires the use of high quality experimental data on the structure, physicochemical properties and bioactivity of nanomaterials. The FP7 Project MODERN has developed and evaluated the main components of a computational framework for the evaluation of the environmental and health impacts of nanoparticles. This chapter describes each of the elements of the framework including aspects related to data generation, management and integration; development of nanodescriptors; establishment of nanostructure-activity relationships; identification of nanoparticle categories; hazard ranking and risk assessment.

A proposed framework for the interpretation of biomonitoring data

PubMed Central

Boogaard, Peter J; Money, Chris D

2008-01-01

Biomonitoring, the determination of chemical substances in human body fluids or tissues, is more and more frequently applied. At the same time detection limits are decreasing steadily. As a consequence, many data with potential relevance for public health are generated although they need not necessarily allow interpretation in term of health relevance. The European Centre of Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) formed a dedicated task force to build a framework for the interpretation of biomonitoring data. The framework that was developed evaluates biomonitoring data based on their analytical integrity, their ability to describe dose (toxicokinetics), their ability to relate to effects, and an overall evaluation and weight of evidence analysis. This framework was subsequently evaluated with a number of case studies and was shown to provide a rational basis to advance discussions on human biomonitoring allowing better use and application of this type of data in human health risk assessment. PMID:18541066

Integrated Research on the Development of Global Climate Risk Management Strategies - Framework and Initial Results of the Research Project ICA-RUS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Yamagata, Yoshiki; Oki, Taikan; Mori, Shunsuke; Fujigaki, Yuko

2013-04-01

With the aim of proposing strategies of global climate risk management, we have launched a five-year research project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). In this project with the phrase "risk management" in its title, we aspire for a comprehensive assessment of climate change risks, explicit consideration of uncertainties, utilization of best available information, and consideration of every possible conditions and options. We also regard the problem as one of decision-making at the human level, which involves social value judgments and adapts to future changes in circumstances. The ICA-RUS project consists of the following five themes: 1) Synthesis of global climate risk management strategies, 2) Optimization of land, water and ecosystem uses for climate risk management, 3) Identification and analysis of critical climate risks, 4) Evaluation of climate risk management options under technological, social and economic uncertainties and 5) Interactions between scientific and social rationalities in climate risk management (see also: http://www.nies.go.jp/ica-rus/en/). For the integration of quantitative knowledge of climate change risks and responses, we apply a tool named AIM/Impact [Policy], which consists of an energy-economic model, a simplified climate model and impact projection modules. At the same time, in order to make use of qualitative knowledge as well, we hold monthly project meetings for the discussion of risk management strategies and publish annual reports based on the quantitative and qualitative information. To enhance the comprehensiveness of the analyses, we maintain an inventory of risks and risk management options. The inventory is revised iteratively through interactive meetings with stakeholders such as policymakers, government officials and industrial representatives.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Frameworks and tools for risk assessment of manufactured nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hristozov, Danail; Gottardo, Stefania; Semenzin, Elena; Oomen, Agnes; Bos, Peter; Peijnenburg, Willie; van Tongeren, Martie; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Brunelli, Andrea; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Tran, Lang; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-10-01

Commercialization of nanotechnologies entails a regulatory requirement for understanding their environmental, health and safety (EHS) risks. Today we face challenges to assess these risks, which emerge from uncertainties around the interactions of manufactured nanomaterials (MNs) with humans and the environment. In order to reduce these uncertainties, it is necessary to generate sound scientific data on hazard and exposure by means of relevant frameworks and tools. The development of such approaches to facilitate the risk assessment (RA) of MNs has become a dynamic area of research. The aim of this paper was to review and critically analyse these approaches against a set of relevant criteria. The analysis concluded that none of the reviewed frameworks were able to fulfill all evaluation criteria. Many of the existing modelling tools are designed to provide screening-level assessments rather than to support regulatory RA and risk management. Nevertheless, there is a tendency towards developing more quantitative, higher-tier models, capable of incorporating uncertainty into their analyses. There is also a trend towards developing validated experimental protocols for material identification and hazard testing, reproducible across laboratories. These tools could enable a shift from a costly case-by-case RA of MNs towards a targeted, flexible and efficient process, based on grouping and read-across strategies and compliant with the 3R (Replacement, Reduction, Refinement) principles. In order to facilitate this process, it is important to transform the current efforts on developing databases and computational models into creating an integrated data and tools infrastructure to support the risk assessment and management of MNs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

PubMed

Kposowa, Augustine J

2013-09-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Coupling the Biophysical and Social Dimensions of Wildfire Risk to Improve Wildfire Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Ager, Alan A; Kline, Jeffrey D; Fischer, A Paige

2015-08-01

We describe recent advances in biophysical and social aspects of risk and their potential combined contribution to improve mitigation planning on fire-prone landscapes. The methods and tools provide an improved method for defining the spatial extent of wildfire risk to communities compared to current planning processes. They also propose an expanded role for social science to improve understanding of community-wide risk perceptions and to predict property owners' capacities and willingness to mitigate risk by treating hazardous fuels and reducing the susceptibility of dwellings. In particular, we identify spatial scale mismatches in wildfire mitigation planning and their potential adverse impact on risk mitigation goals. Studies in other fire-prone regions suggest that these scale mismatches are widespread and contribute to continued wildfire dwelling losses. We discuss how risk perceptions and behavior contribute to scale mismatches and how they can be minimized through integrated analyses of landscape wildfire transmission and social factors that describe the potential for collaboration among landowners and land management agencies. These concepts are then used to outline an integrated socioecological planning framework to identify optimal strategies for local community risk mitigation and improve landscape-scale prioritization of fuel management investments by government entities. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

A proposed analytic framework for determining the impact of an antimicrobial resistance intervention.

PubMed

Grohn, Yrjo T; Carson, Carolee; Lanzas, Cristina; Pullum, Laura; Stanhope, Michael; Volkova, Victoriya

2017-06-01

Antimicrobial use (AMU) is increasingly threatened by antimicrobial resistance (AMR). The FDA is implementing risk mitigation measures promoting prudent AMU in food animals. Their evaluation is crucial: the AMU/AMR relationship is complex; a suitable framework to analyze interventions is unavailable. Systems science analysis, depicting variables and their associations, would help integrate mathematics/epidemiology to evaluate the relationship. This would identify informative data and models to evaluate interventions. This National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis AMR Working Group's report proposes a system framework to address the methodological gap linking livestock AMU and AMR in foodborne bacteria. It could evaluate how AMU (and interventions) impact AMR. We will evaluate pharmacokinetic/dynamic modeling techniques for projecting AMR selection pressure on enteric bacteria. We study two methods to model phenotypic AMR changes in bacteria in the food supply and evolutionary genotypic analyses determining molecular changes in phenotypic AMR. Systems science analysis integrates the methods, showing how resistance in the food supply is explained by AMU and concurrent factors influencing the whole system. This process is updated with data and techniques to improve prediction and inform improvements for AMU/AMR surveillance. Our proposed framework reflects both the AMR system's complexity, and desire for simple, reliable conclusions.

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

PubMed

Wilby, R L; Orr, H G; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

2006-12-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

Safety Lead Optimization and Candidate Identification: Integrating New Technologies into Decision-Making.

PubMed

Dambach, Donna M; Misner, Dinah; Brock, Mathew; Fullerton, Aaron; Proctor, William; Maher, Jonathan; Lee, Dong; Ford, Kevin; Diaz, Dolores

2016-04-18

Discovery toxicology focuses on the identification of the most promising drug candidates through the development and implementation of lead optimization strategies and hypothesis-driven investigation of issues that enable rational and informed decision-making. The major goals are to [a] identify and progress the drug candidate with the best overall drug safety profile for a therapeutic area, [b] remove the most toxic drugs from the portfolio prior to entry into humans to reduce clinical attrition due to toxicity, and [c] establish a well-characterized hazard and translational risk profile to enable clinical trial designs. This is accomplished through a framework that balances the multiple considerations to identify a drug candidate with the overall best drug characteristics and provides a cogent understanding of mechanisms of toxicity. The framework components include establishing a target candidate profile for each program that defines the qualities of a successful candidate based on the intended therapeutic area, including the risk tolerance for liabilities; evaluating potential liabilities that may result from engaging the therapeutic target (pharmacology-mediated or on-target) and that are chemical structure-mediated (off-target); and characterizing identified liabilities. Lead optimization and investigation relies upon the integrated use of a variety of technologies and models (in silico, in vitro, and in vivo) that have achieved a sufficient level of qualification or validation to provide confidence in their use. We describe the strategic applications of various nonclinical models (established and new) for a holistic and integrated risk assessment that is used for rational decision-making. While this review focuses on strategies for small molecules, the overall concepts, approaches, and technologies are generally applicable to biotherapeutics.

A psychosocial risk assessment and management framework to enhance response to CBRN terrorism threats and attacks.

PubMed

Lemyre, Louise; Clément, Mélanie; Corneil, Wayne; Craig, Lorraine; Boutette, Paul; Tyshenko, Michael; Karyakina, Nataliya; Clarke, Robert; Krewski, Daniel

2005-01-01

Evidence in the disaster mental health literature indicates that psychosocial consequences of terrorism are a critical component of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events, both at the clinical level and the normal behavioral and emotional levels. Planning for such psychosocial aspects should be an integral part of emergency preparedness. As Canada and other countries build the capacity to prevent, mitigate, and manage CBRN threats and events, it is important to recognize the range of social, psychological, emotional, spiritual, behavioral, and cognitive factors that may affect victims and their families, communities, children, the elderly, responders, decision makers, and others at all phases of terrorism, from threat to post-impact recovery. A structured process to assist CBRN emergency planners, decision makers, and responders in identifying psychosocial risks, vulnerable populations, resources, and interventions at various phases of a CBRN event to limit negative psychosocial impacts and promote resilience and adaptive responses is the essence of our psychosocial risk assessment and management (P-RAM) framework. This article presents the evidence base and conceptual underpinnings of the framework, the principles underlying its design, its key elements, and its use in the development of decision tools for responders, planners, decision makers, and the general public to better assess and manage psychosocial aspects of CBRN threats or attacks.

Weathering the Storm: Developing a Spatial Data Infrastructure and Online Research Platform for Oil Spill Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, J. R.; Rose, K.; Romeo, L.; Barkhurst, A.; Nelson, J.; Duran-Sesin, R.; Vielma, J.

2016-12-01

Efforts to prepare for and reduce the risk of hazards, from both natural and anthropogenic sources, which threaten our oceans and coasts requires an understanding of the dynamics and interactions between the physical, ecological, and socio-economic systems. Understanding these coupled dynamics are essential as offshore oil & gas exploration and production continues to push into harsher, more extreme environments where risks and uncertainty increase. However, working with these large, complex data from various sources and scales to assess risks and potential impacts associated with offshore energy exploration and production poses several challenges to research. In order to address these challenges, an integrated assessment model (IAM) was developed at the Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) that combines spatial data infrastructure and an online research platform to manage, process, analyze, and share these large, multidimensional datasets, research products, and the tools and models used to evaluate risk and reduce uncertainty for the entire offshore system, from the subsurface, through the water column, to coastal ecosystems and communities. Here, we will discuss the spatial data infrastructure and online research platform, NETL's Energy Data eXchange (EDX), that underpin the offshore IAM, providing information on how the framework combines multidimensional spatial data and spatio-temporal tools to evaluate risks to the complex matrix of potential environmental, social, and economic impacts stemming from modeled offshore hazard scenarios, such as oil spills or hurricanes. In addition, we will discuss the online analytics, tools, and visualization methods integrated into this framework that support availability and access to data, as well as allow for the rapid analysis and effective communication of analytical results to aid a range of decision-making needs.

Application of the GEM Inventory Data Capture Tools for Dynamic Vulnerability Assessment and Recovery Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrucci, Enrica; Bevington, John; Vicini, Alessandro

2014-05-01

A set of open-source tools to create building exposure datasets for seismic risk assessment was developed from 2010-13 by the Inventory Data Capture Tools (IDCT) Risk Global Component of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The tools were designed to integrate data derived from remotely-sensed imagery, statistically-sampled in-situ field data of buildings to generate per-building and regional exposure data. A number of software tools were created to aid the development of these data, including mobile data capture tools for in-field structural assessment, and the Spatial Inventory Data Developer (SIDD) for creating "mapping schemes" - statistically-inferred distributions of building stock applied to areas of homogeneous urban land use. These tools were made publically available in January 2014. Exemplar implementations in Europe and Central Asia during the IDCT project highlighted several potential application areas beyond the original scope of the project. These are investigated here. We describe and demonstrate how the GEM-IDCT suite can be used extensively within the framework proposed by the EC-FP7 project SENSUM (Framework to integrate Space-based and in-situ sENSing for dynamic vUlnerability and recovery Monitoring). Specifically, applications in the areas of 1) dynamic vulnerability assessment (pre-event), and 2) recovery monitoring and evaluation (post-event) are discussed. Strategies for using the IDC Tools for these purposes are discussed. The results demonstrate the benefits of using advanced technology tools for data capture, especially in a systematic fashion using the taxonomic standards set by GEM. Originally designed for seismic risk assessment, it is clear the IDCT tools have relevance for multi-hazard risk assessment. When combined with a suitable sampling framework and applied to multi-temporal recovery monitoring, data generated from the tools can reveal spatio-temporal patterns in the quality of recovery activities and resilience trends can be inferred. Lastly, this work draws attention to the use of the IDCT suite as an education resource for inspiring and training new students and engineers in the field of disaster risk reduction.

Public perceptions of Florida red tide risks.

PubMed

Kuhar, Sara E; Nierenberg, Kate; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Tobin, Graham A

2009-07-01

This research integrates theoretical frameworks of risk perception, social amplification of risk, and the role of place-specific contexts in order to explore the various perceptions surrounding Florida red tides. Florida red tides are naturally occurring events that are increasing in frequency, duration, and severity. This has implications for public health, the local economy, and ecosystem health. While many of the negative impacts of Florida red tides are not easily controlled, some of the secondary impacts may be mitigated through individuals' responses. However, public perception and consequent reactions to Florida red tides have not been investigated. This research uses questionnaire surveys, and semi-structured interviews, to explore the various perceptions of the risk surrounding red tides. Surveys and interviews were conducted along two Florida west coast beaches. The results indicate that the underlying foundations of the social amplification of the risk framework are applicable to understanding how individuals form perceptions of risk relative to red tide events. There are key differences between the spatial locations of individuals and corresponding perceptions, indicating that place-specific contexts are essential to understanding how individuals receive and interpret risk information. The results also suggest that individuals may be lacking efficient and up-to-date information about Florida red tides and their impacts because of inconsistent public outreach. Overall, social and spatial factors appear to be influential as to whether individuals amplify or attenuate the risks associated with Florida red tides.

Public Perceptions of Florida Red Tide Risks

PubMed Central

Kuhar, Sara E.; Nierenberg, Kate; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Tobin, Graham A.

2009-01-01

This research integrates theoretical frameworks of risk perception, social amplification of risk, and the role of place-specific contexts in order to explore the various perceptions surrounding Florida red tides. Florida red tides are naturally occurring events that are increasing in frequency, duration, and severity. This has implications for public health, the local economy, and ecosystem health. While many of the negative impacts of Florida red tides are not easily controlled, some of the secondary impacts may be mitigated through individuals’ responses. However, public perception and consequent reactions to Florida red tides have not been investigated. This research uses questionnaire surveys, and semi-structured interviews, to explore the various perceptions of the risk surrounding red tides. Surveys and interviews were conducted along two Florida west coast beaches. The results indicate that the underlying foundations of the social amplification of the risk framework are applicable to understanding how individuals form perceptions of risk relative to red tide events. There are key differences between the spatial locations of individuals and corresponding perceptions, indicating that place-specific contexts are essential to understanding how individuals receive and interpret risk information. The results also suggest that individuals may be lacking efficient and up-to-date information about Florida red tides and their impacts because of inconsistent public outreach. Overall, social and spatial factors appear to be influential as to whether individuals amplify or attenuate the risks associated with Florida red tides. PMID:19392675

Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

PubMed

Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

2017-09-05

Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nugent, Philip J; Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S

The urban climate is changing rapidly. Therefore, climate change and its projected impacts on environmental conditions must be considered in assessing and comparing urban planning alternatives. In this paper, we present an integrated framework for urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities to plan for, rather than react to, possible risks. Urban-CAT will be developed as a scenario planning tool that is locally relevant to existing urban decision-making processes.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Primary NAAQS REVIEW: Integrated ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The NOx Integrated Review Plan is the first document generated as part of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review process. The Plan presents background information, the schedule for the review, the process to be used in conducting the review, and the key policy-relevant science issues that will guide the review. The integrated review plan also discusses the frameworks for the various assessment documents to be prepared by the EPA as part of the review, including an Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), and as warranted, a Risk/Exposure Assessment (REA), and a Policy Assessment (PA). The primary purpose of the NOx Integrated Review Plan is to highlight the key policy-relevant issues to be considered in the Review of the NO2 primary NAAQS. A draft of the integrated review plan will be the subject of an advisory review with the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and made available to the public for review and comment.

Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Primary NAAQS Review: Integrated ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The SO2 Integrated Review Plan is the first document generated as part of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review process. The Plan presents background information, the schedule for the review, the process to be used in conducting the review, and the key policy-relevant science issues that will guide the review. The integrated review plan also discusses the frameworks for the various assessment documents to be prepared by the EPA as part of the review, including an Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), and as warranted, a Risk/Exposure Assessment (REA), and a Policy Assessment (PA). The primary purpose of the SO2 Integrated Review Plan is to highlight the key policy-relevant issues to be considered in the Review of the SO2 primary NAAQS. A draft of the integrated review plan will be the subject of an advisory with the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and made available to the public for review and comment.

"We don't want our clothes to smell smoke": changing malaria control practices and opportunities for integrated community-based management in Baringo, Kenya.

PubMed

Amadi, Jacinter A; Olago, Daniel O; Ong'amo, George O; Oriaso, Silas O; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

2018-05-09

The decline in global malaria cases is attributed to intensified utilization of primary vector control interventions and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). These strategies are inadequate in many rural areas, thus adopting locally appropriate integrated malaria control strategies is imperative in these heterogeneous settings. This study aimed at investigating trends and local knowledge on malaria and to develop a framework for malaria control for communities in Baringo, Kenya. Clinical malaria cases obtained from four health facilities in the riverine and lowland zones were used to analyse malaria trends for the 2005-2014 period. A mixed method approach integrating eight focus group discussions, 12 key informant interviews, 300 survey questionnaires and two stakeholders' consultative forums were used to assess local knowledge on malaria risk and develop a framework for malaria reduction. Malaria cases increased significantly during the 2005-2014 period (tau = 0.352; p < 0.001) in the riverine zone. March, April, May, June and October showed significant increases compared to other months. Misconceptions about the cause and mode of malaria transmission existed. Gender-segregated outdoor occupation such as social drinking, farm activities, herding, and circumcision events increased the risk of mosquito bites. A positive relationship occurred between education level and opinion on exposure to malaria risk after dusk (χ 2  = 2.70, p < 0.05). There was over-reliance on bed nets, yet only 68% (204/300) of respondents owned at least one net. Complementary malaria control measures were under-utilized, with 90% of respondents denying having used either sprays, repellents or burnt cow dung or plant leaves over the last one year before the study was conducted. Baraza, radios, and mobile phone messages were identified as effective media for malaria information exchange. Supplementary strategies identified included unblocking canals, clearing Prosopis bushes, and use of community volunteers and school clubs to promote social behaviour change. The knowledge gap on malaria transmission should be addressed to minimize the impacts and enhance uptake of appropriate malaria management mechanisms. Implementing community-based framework can support significant reductions in malaria prevalence by minimizing both indoor and outdoor malaria transmissions.

Development of an "Alert Framework" Based on the Practices in the Medical Front.

PubMed

Sakata, Takuya; Araki, Kenji; Yamazaki, Tomoyoshi; Kawano, Koichi; Maeda, Minoru; Kushima, Muneo; Araki, Sanae

2018-05-09

At the University of Miyazaki Hospital (UMH), we have accumulated and semantically structured a vast amount of medical information since the activation of the electronic health record system approximately 10 years ago. With this medical information, we have decided to develop an alert system for aiding in medical treatment. The purpose of this investigation is to not only to integrate an alert framework into the electronic heath record system, but also to formulate a modeling method of this knowledge. A trial alert framework was developed for the staff in various occupational categories at the UMH. Based on findings of subsequent interviews, a more detailed and upgraded alert framework was constructed, resulting in the final model. Based on our current findings, an alert framework was developed with four major items. Based on the analysis of the medical practices from the trial model, it has been concluded that there are four major risk patterns that trigger the alert. Furthermore, the current alert framework contains detailed definitions which are easily substituted into the database, leading to easy implementation of the electronic health records.

Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lengyel, David M.

2009-01-01

The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

Robotic and artificial intelligence for keyhole neurosurgery: the ROBOCAST project, a multi-modal autonomous path planner.

PubMed

De Momi, E; Ferrigno, G

2010-01-01

The robot and sensors integration for computer-assisted surgery and therapy (ROBOCAST) project (FP7-ICT-2007-215190) is co-funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme in the field of information and communication technologies. The ROBOCAST project focuses on robot- and artificial-intelligence-assisted keyhole neurosurgery (tumour biopsy and local drug delivery along straight or turning paths). The goal of this project is to assist surgeons with a robotic system controlled by an intelligent high-level controller (HLC) able to gather and integrate information from the surgeon, from diagnostic images, and from an array of on-field sensors. The HLC integrates pre-operative and intra-operative diagnostics data and measurements, intelligence augmentation, multiple-robot dexterity, and multiple sensory inputs in a closed-loop cooperating scheme including a smart interface for improved haptic immersion and integration. This paper, after the overall architecture description, focuses on the intelligent trajectory planner based on risk estimation and human criticism. The current status of development is reported, and first tests on the planner are shown by using a real image stack and risk descriptor phantom. The advantages of using a fuzzy risk description are given by the possibility of upgrading the knowledge on-field without the intervention of a knowledge engineer.

Novel technologies and an overall strategy to allow hazard assessment and risk prediction of chemicals, cosmetics, and drugs with animal-free methods.

PubMed

Leist, Marcel; Lidbury, Brett A; Yang, Chihae; Hayden, Patrick J; Kelm, Jens M; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Detroyer, Ann; Meunier, Jean R; Rathman, James F; Jackson, George R; Stolper, Gina; Hasiwa, Nina

2012-01-01

Several alternative methods to replace animal experiments have been accepted by legal bodies. An even larger number of tests are under development or already in use for non-regulatory applications or for the generation of information stored in proprietary knowledge bases. The next step for the use of the different in vitro methods is their combination into integrated testing strategies (ITS) to get closer to the overall goal of predictive "in vitro-based risk evaluation processes." We introduce here a conceptual framework as the basis for future ITS and their use for risk evaluation without animal experiments. The framework allows incorporation of both individual tests and already integrated approaches. Illustrative examples for elements to be incorporated are drawn from the session "Innovative technologies" at the 8th World Congress on Alternatives and Animal Use in the Life Sciences, held in Montreal, 2011. For instance, LUHMES cells (conditionally immortalized human neurons) were presented as an example for a 2D cell system. The novel 3D platform developed by InSphero was chosen as an example for the design and use of scaffold-free, organotypic microtissues. The identification of critical pathways of toxicity (PoT) may be facilitated by approaches exemplified by the MatTek 3D model for human epithelial tissues with engineered toxicological reporter functions. The important role of in silico methods and of modeling based on various pre-existing data is demonstrated by Altamira's comprehensive approach to predicting a molecule's potential for skin irritancy. A final example demonstrates how natural variation in human genetics may be overcome using data analytic (pattern recognition) techniques borrowed from computer science and statistics. The overall hazard and risk assessment strategy integrating these different examples has been compiled in a graphical work flow.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis C.; Young, Dennis P.; Thadani, Suresh K.; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper.

Security Risk Assessment Process for UAS in the NAS CNPC Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iannicca, Dennis Christopher; Young, Daniel Paul; Suresh, Thadhani; Winter, Gilbert A.

2013-01-01

This informational paper discusses the risk assessment process conducted to analyze Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) architectures for integrating civil Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS). The assessment employs the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Risk Management framework to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks to these architectures and recommends corresponding mitigating security controls. This process builds upon earlier work performed by RTCA Special Committee (SC) 203 and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to roadmap the risk assessment methodology and to identify categories of information security risks that pose a significant impact to aeronautical communications systems. A description of the deviations from the typical process is described in regards to this aeronautical communications system. Due to the sensitive nature of the information, data resulting from the risk assessment pertaining to threats, vulnerabilities, and risks is beyond the scope of this paper

Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

2015-12-01

The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

A risk-management approach for effective integration of biomarkers in clinical trials: perspectives of an NCI, NCRI, and EORTC working group.

PubMed

Hall, Jacqueline Anne; Salgado, Roberto; Lively, Tracy; Sweep, Fred; Schuh, Anna

2014-04-01

Clinical cancer research today often includes testing the value of biomarkers to direct treatment and for drug development. However, the practical challenges of integration of molecular information into clinical trial protocols are increasingly appreciated. Inherent difficulties include evidence gaps in available biomarker data, a paucity of robust assay methods, and the design of appropriate studies within the constraints of feasible trial operations, and finite resources. Scalable and proportionate approaches are needed to systematically cope with these challenges. Therefore, we assembled international experts from three clinical trials organisations to identify the common challenges and common solutions. We present a practical risk-assessment framework allowing targeting of scarce resources to crucial issues coupled with a library of useful resources and a simple actionable checklist of recommendations. We hope that these practical methods will be useful for running biomarker-driven trials and ultimately help to develop biomarkers that are ready for integration in routine practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What happens in the skin? Integrating skin permeation kinetics into studies of developmental and reproductive toxicity following topical exposure.

PubMed

Dancik, Yuri; Bigliardi, Paul L; Bigliardi-Qi, Mei

2015-12-01

Animal-based developmental and reproductive toxicological studies involving skin exposure rarely incorporate information on skin permeation kinetics. For practical reasons, animal studies cannot investigate the many factors which can affect human skin permeation and systemic uptake kinetics in real-life scenarios. Traditional route-to-route extrapolation is based on the same types of experiments and requires assumptions regarding route similarity. Pharmacokinetic modeling based on skin physiology and structure is the most efficient way to incorporate the variety of intrinsic skin and exposure-dependent parameters occurring in clinical and occupational settings into one framework. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models enable the integration of available in vivo, in vitro and in silico data to quantitatively predict the kinetics of uptake at the site of interest, as needed for 21st century toxicology and risk assessment. As demonstrated herein, proper interpretation and integration of these data is a multidisciplinary endeavor requiring toxicological, risk assessment, mathematical, pharmaceutical, biological and dermatological expertise. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

Balancing benefit and risk of medicines: a systematic review and classification of available methodologies.

PubMed

Mt-Isa, Shahrul; Hallgreen, Christine E; Wang, Nan; Callréus, Torbjörn; Genov, Georgy; Hirsch, Ian; Hobbiger, Stephen F; Hockley, Kimberley S; Luciani, Davide; Phillips, Lawrence D; Quartey, George; Sarac, Sinan B; Stoeckert, Isabelle; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Micaleff, Alain; Ashby, Deborah

2014-07-01

The need for formal and structured approaches for benefit-risk assessment of medicines is increasing, as is the complexity of the scientific questions addressed before making decisions on the benefit-risk balance of medicines. We systematically collected, appraised and classified available benefit-risk methodologies to facilitate and inform their future use. A systematic review of publications identified benefit-risk assessment methodologies. Methodologies were appraised on their fundamental principles, features, graphical representations, assessability and accessibility. We created a taxonomy of methodologies to facilitate understanding and choice. We identified 49 methodologies, critically appraised and classified them into four categories: frameworks, metrics, estimation techniques and utility survey techniques. Eight frameworks describe qualitative steps in benefit-risk assessment and eight quantify benefit-risk balance. Nine metric indices include threshold indices to measure either benefit or risk; health indices measure quality-of-life over time; and trade-off indices integrate benefits and risks. Six estimation techniques support benefit-risk modelling and evidence synthesis. Four utility survey techniques elicit robust value preferences from relevant stakeholders to the benefit-risk decisions. Methodologies to help benefit-risk assessments of medicines are diverse and each is associated with different limitations and strengths. There is not a 'one-size-fits-all' method, and a combination of methods may be needed for each benefit-risk assessment. The taxonomy introduced herein may guide choice of adequate methodologies. Finally, we recommend 13 of 49 methodologies for further appraisal for use in the real-life benefit-risk assessment of medicines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perspectives for integrating human and environmental exposure assessments.

PubMed

Ciffroy, P; Péry, A R R; Roth, N

2016-10-15

Integrated Risk Assessment (IRA) has been defined by the EU FP7 HEROIC Coordination action as "the mutual exploitation of Environmental Risk Assessment for Human Health Risk Assessment and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process" (Wilks et al., 2015). Since exposure assessment and hazard characterization are the pillars of risk assessment, integrating Environmental Exposure assessment (EEA) and Human Exposure assessment (HEA) is a major component of an IRA framework. EEA and HEA typically pursue different targets, protection goals and timeframe. However, human and wildlife species also share the same environment and they similarly inhale air and ingest water and food through often similar overlapping pathways of exposure. Fate models used in EEA and HEA to predict the chemicals distribution among physical and biological media are essentially based on common properties of chemicals, and internal concentration estimations are largely based on inter-species (i.e. biota-to-human) extrapolations. Also, both EEA and HEA are challenged by increasing scientific complexity and resources constraints. Altogether, these points create the need for a better exploitation of all currently existing data, experimental approaches and modeling tools and it is assumed that a more integrated approach of both EEA and HEA may be part of the solution. Based on the outcome of an Expert Workshop on Extrapolations in Integrated Exposure Assessment organized by the HEROIC project in January 2014, this paper identifies perspectives and recommendations to better harmonize and extrapolate exposure assessment data, models and methods between Human Health and Environmental Risk Assessments to support the further development and promotion of the concept of IRA. Ultimately, these recommendations may feed into guidance showing when and how to apply IRA in the regulatory decision-making process for chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Value Assessment Frameworks for HTA Agencies: The Organization of Evidence-Informed Deliberative Processes.

PubMed

Baltussen, Rob; Jansen, Maarten Paul Maria; Bijlmakers, Leon; Grutters, Janneke; Kluytmans, Anouck; Reuzel, Rob P; Tummers, Marcia; der Wilt, Gert Jan van

2017-02-01

Priority setting in health care has been long recognized as an intrinsically complex and value-laden process. Yet, health technology assessment agencies (HTAs) presently employ value assessment frameworks that are ill fitted to capture the range and diversity of stakeholder values and thereby risk compromising the legitimacy of their recommendations. We propose "evidence-informed deliberative processes" as an alternative framework with the aim to enhance this legitimacy. This framework integrates two increasingly popular and complementary frameworks for priority setting: multicriteria decision analysis and accountability for reasonableness. Evidence-informed deliberative processes are, on one hand, based on early, continued stakeholder deliberation to learn about the importance of relevant social values. On the other hand, they are based on rational decision-making through evidence-informed evaluation of the identified values. The framework has important implications for how HTA agencies should ideally organize their processes. First, HTA agencies should take the responsibility of organizing stakeholder involvement. Second, agencies are advised to integrate their assessment and appraisal phases, allowing for the timely collection of evidence on values that are considered relevant. Third, HTA agencies should subject their decision-making criteria to public scrutiny. Fourth, agencies are advised to use a checklist of potentially relevant criteria and to provide argumentation for how each criterion affected the recommendation. Fifth, HTA agencies must publish their argumentation and install options for appeal. The framework should not be considered a blueprint for HTA agencies but rather an aspirational goal-agencies can take incremental steps toward achieving this goal. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

PubMed Central

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

2014-01-01

Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

An Exploratory Study of Risk Factors for Implementing Service-Oriented IS Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Hsin-Lu; Lue, Chia-Pei

For IS project managers, how to implement the projects successfully is always a challenge. Further, as more and more enterprises start to develop service-oriented IS projects, it is essential to assess the sources and impacts of relevant risks. This research aimed at identifying risk factors related to service-oriented IS projects and analyzing the impact of these risk factors. Applying the SIMM (service integrated maturity model) proposed by IBM, customer service systems were selected to justify the research framework. Result showed that the risk factors influencing the adoption of service-oriented systems were insufficient technology planning, lack of expertise, ineffective project governance, and organizational misalignment, listed in the order of strength of influence. The findings of this research is expected to assist managers realize the risks and the importance of these risks that have to be noticed and controlled when making decisions on service-oriented systems adoption.

Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2013-04-01

Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is described. The project was created as a testbed for evaluating and prototyping key technologies for rapid acquisition and distribution of data products for decision support systems to monitor floods and enable flood risk assessment. The system provides access to real-time products on rainfall estimates and flood potential forecast derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) mission with lag time of 6 h, alerts from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) with lag time of 4 h, and the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model to generate alerts. These are alerts are used to trigger satellite observations. With deployed SPS service for NASA's EO-1 satellite it is possible to automatically task sensor with re-image capability of less 8 h. Therefore, with enabled computational and storage services provided by Grid and cloud infrastructure it was possible to generate flood maps within 24-48 h after trigger was alerted. To enable interoperability between system components and services OGC-compliant standards are utilized. [1] Hluchy L., Kussul N., Shelestov A., Skakun S., Kravchenko O., Gripich Y., Kopp P., Lupian E., "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, 2010, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334.

A Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator for Software Development for a Mars Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slagowski, Stefan E.; Vican, Justin E.; Kenney, P. Sean

2007-01-01

Draper Laboratory recently developed a Hardware-In-The-Loop Simulator (HILSIM) to provide a simulation of the Aerial Regional-scale Environmental Survey (ARES) airplane executing a mission in the Martian environment. The HILSIM was used to support risk mitigation activities under the Planetary Airplane Risk Reduction (PARR) program. PARR supported NASA Langley Research Center's (LaRC) ARES proposal efforts for the Mars Scout 2011 opportunity. The HILSIM software was a successful integration of two simulation frameworks, Draper's CSIM and NASA LaRC's Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++).

Financial performance in the social health maintenance organization, 1985-88

PubMed Central

Leutz, Walter; Malone, Joelyn; Kistner, Marlin; O'Bar, Tim; Ripley, Jeanne M.; Sandhaus, Martin

1990-01-01

Since early 1985, four social health maintenance organizations have delivered integrated health and long-term care services to Medicare beneficiaries under congressionally mandated waivers that included shared public-program risk for losses. Three of four sites had substantial losses in the first 3 years, primarily because of slow enrollment and resultant high marketing and administrative costs. After assuming full risk, two of the three showed surpluses in 1988. Service and management costs for expanded long-term care were similar across sites and were affordable within the framework of Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement and private premiums. PMID:10113466

Research environments that promote integrity.

PubMed

Jeffers, Brenda Recchia; Whittemore, Robin

2005-01-01

The body of empirical knowledge about research integrity and the factors that promote research integrity in nursing research environments remains small. To propose an internal control model as an innovative framework for the design and structure of nursing research environments that promote integrity. An internal control model is adapted to illustrate its use for conceptualizing and designing research environments that promote integrity. The internal control model integrates both the organizational elements necessary to promote research integrity and the processes needed to assess research environments. The model provides five interrelated process components within which any number of research integrity variables and processes may be used and studied: internal control environment, risk assessment, internal control activities, monitoring, and information and communication. The components of the proposed research integrity internal control model proposed comprise an integrated conceptualization of the processes that provide reasonable assurance that research integrity will be promoted within the nursing research environment. Schools of nursing can use the model to design, implement, and evaluate systems that promote research integrity. The model process components need further exploration to substantiate the use of the model in nursing research environments.

Implementing a framework for integrating toxicokinetics into human health risk assessment for agrochemicals.

PubMed

Terry, Claire; Hays, Sean; McCoy, Alene T; McFadden, Lisa G; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Juberg, Daland R

2016-03-01

A strategic and comprehensive program in which toxicokinetic (TK) measurements are made for all agrochemicals undergoing toxicity testing (both new compounds and compounds already registered for use) is described. This approach provides the data to more accurately assess the toxicokinetics of agrochemicals and their metabolites in laboratory animals and humans. Having this knowledge provides the ability to conduct more insightful toxicity studies, refine and interpret exposure assessments and reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. By developing a better understanding of TK across species, including humans via in vitro metabolism studies, any differences across species in TK can be identified early and the most relevant species can be selected for toxicity tests. It also provides the ability to identify any non-linearities in TK as a function of dose, which in turn can be used to identify a kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD) and avoid dosing inappropriately outside of the kinetic linear range. Measuring TK in key life stages also helps to identify changes in ADME parameters from in utero to adults. A robust TK database can also be used to set internal concentration based "Reference Concentrations" and Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE), and support selection of Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF). All of these factors support the reduction of uncertainty throughout the entire risk assessment process. This paper outlines how a TK research strategy can be integrated into new agrochemical toxicity testing programs, together with a proposed Framework for future use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pattern search in multi-structure data: a framework for the next-generation evidence-based medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukumar, Sreenivas R.; Ainsworth, Keela C.

2014-03-01

With the impetus towards personalized and evidence-based medicine, the need for a framework to analyze/interpret quantitative measurements (blood work, toxicology, etc.) with qualitative descriptions (specialist reports after reading images, bio-medical knowledgebase, etc.) to predict diagnostic risks is fast emerging. Addressing this need, we pose and answer the following questions: (i) How can we jointly analyze and explore measurement data in context with qualitative domain knowledge? (ii) How can we search and hypothesize patterns (not known apriori) from such multi-structure data? (iii) How can we build predictive models by integrating weakly-associated multi-relational multi-structure data? We propose a framework towards answering these questions. We describe a software solution that leverages hardware for scalable in-memory analytics and applies next-generation semantic query tools on medical data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Jones, Daniel Steven

An ecological risk assessment was conducted at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, as a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF). The focus of the assessment was a testing program at Cibola Range, which involved an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. The problem formulation for the assessment included conceptual models for three component activities of the test, helicopter overflight, missile firing, and tracked vehicle movement, and two ecological endpoint entities, woody desert wash communities and desert mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus crooki) populations. An activity-specific risk assessment framework was available to provide guidancemore » for assessing risks associated with aircraft overflights. Key environmental features of the study area include barren desert pavement and tree-lined desert washes. The primary stressors associated with helicopter overflights were sound and the view of the aircraft. The primary stressor associated with Hellfire missile firing was sound. The principal stressor associated with tracked vehicle movement was soil disturbance, and a resulting, secondary stressor was hydrological change. Water loss to washes and wash vegetation was expected to result from increased ponding, infiltrationand/or evaporation associated with disturbances to desert pavement. A plan for estimating integrated risks from the three military activities was included in the problem formulation.« less

Using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as an instrument of water resource management: a case study from a GIS-based Water Safety Plan in Germany.

PubMed

Wienand, I; Nolting, U; Kistemann, T

2009-01-01

Following international developments and the new WHO Drinking Water Guidelines (WHO 2004) a process-orientated concept for risk, monitoring and incident management has been developed and implemented in this study. The concept will be reviewed with special consideration for resource protection (first barrier of the multi-barrier system) and in turn, for the Water Safety Plan (WSP) which adequately considers-beyond the current framework of legal requirements-possible new hygienic-microbiologically relevant risks (especially emerging pathogens) for the drinking water supply. The development of a WSP within the framework of risk, monitoring and incident management includes the application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). In the present study, GIS was used for visualization and spatial analysis in decisive steps in the WSP. The detailed process of GIS-supported implementation included the identification of local participants and their tasks and interactions as an essential part of risk management. A detailed ecological investigation of drinking water conditions in the catchment area was conducted in addition to hazard identification, risk assessment and the monitoring of control measures. The main task of our study was to find out in which steps of the WSP the implementation of GIS could be integrated as a useful, and perhaps even an essential tool.

Qalibra: a general model for food risk-benefit assessment that quantifies variability and uncertainty.

PubMed

Hart, Andy; Hoekstra, Jeljer; Owen, Helen; Kennedy, Marc; Zeilmaker, Marco J; de Jong, Nynke; Gunnlaugsdottir, Helga

2013-04-01

The EU project BRAFO proposed a framework for risk-benefit assessment of foods, or changes in diet, that present both potential risks and potential benefits to consumers (Hoekstra et al., 2012a). In higher tiers of the BRAFO framework, risks and benefits are integrated quantitatively to estimate net health impact measured in DALYs or QALYs (disability- or quality-adjusted life years). This paper describes a general model that was developed by a second EU project, Qalibra, to assist users in conducting these assessments. Its flexible design makes it applicable to a wide range of dietary questions involving different nutrients, contaminants and health effects. Account can be taken of variation between consumers in their diets and also other characteristics relevant to the estimation of risk and benefit, such as body weight, gender and age. Uncertainty in any input parameter may be quantified probabilistically, using probability distributions, or deterministically by repeating the assessment with alternative assumptions. Uncertainties that are not quantified should be evaluated qualitatively. Outputs produced by the model are illustrated using results from a simple assessment of fish consumption. More detailed case studies on oily fish and phytosterols are presented in companion papers. The model can be accessed as web-based software at www.qalibra.eu. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.

2012-02-01

Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coalmore » electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.« less

Project Eban: An HIV/STD Intervention for African American Couples

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Objective To describe the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention being evaluated in the NIMH Multisite HIV/STD Prevention trial for heterosexual African American couples, including the integrated theoretical framework, the structure, core elements and procedures of the intervention and how the content was shaped by culturally congruent concepts to address the needs of the study target population. Design The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention is designed to address multilevel individual, interpersonal and community level factors that contribute to HIV/STD transmission risk behaviors among heterosexual African American couples who are HIV serodiscordant. Methods The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention employs a mixed modality, couples-based approach that is based on an integrated ecological framework incorporating social cognitive theory and uses an Afro-centric paradigm that is informed by previous evidence-based couples HIV prevention interventions. For this randomized controlled trial, African American serodiscordant couples were recruited from four urban sites (Atlanta, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia) and were randomized to either the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention (treatment condition) or a Health Promotion Intervention that served as an attentional control condition. Both interventions had 4 individual couple sessions and 4 group sessions, but only the treatment condition was focused on reducing HIV/STD risk behaviors. Behavioral and biological data were collected at baseline, immediately after the intervention, and at 6 and 12 months. The theoretical framework, core elements and content of each session are described and lessons learned from this intervention trial are discussed. Results An HIV prevention intervention combining couple and group sessions can be feasibly implemented with African American HIV serodiscordant couples who remain at high risk of HIV/STD transmission. The lessons learned from the trial suggest that the participants responded very well to both the couple and group sessions. Participant feedback suggests that the cultural congruence of the intervention and use of African American co-facilitators made them feel comfortable disclosing risky behaviors. Participant feedback also suggests that the intervention’s couples-based focus on enhancing dyadic communication and decision-making skills were key to helping the couples work together to overcome barriers to using condoms. Conclusion Participant and facilitator evaluations of the Eban Risk Reduction Intervention suggest that couples responded well to the Afro-centric content and mixed modalities of the intervention sessions. Couple sessions were optimal for enhancing interpersonal and microlevel factors, including communication, problem solving, and decision making. PMID:18724186

Emerging Technologies for Environmental Remediation: Integrating Data and Judgment.

PubMed

Bates, Matthew E; Grieger, Khara D; Trump, Benjamin D; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Plourde, Kenton J; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-05

Emerging technologies present significant challenges to researchers, decision-makers, industry professionals, and other stakeholder groups due to the lack of quantitative risk, benefit, and cost data associated with their use. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) can support early decisions for emerging technologies when data is too sparse or uncertain for traditional risk assessment. It does this by integrating expert judgment with available quantitative and qualitative inputs across multiple criteria to provide relative technology scores. Here, an MCDA framework provides preliminary insights on the suitability of emerging technologies for environmental remediation by comparing nanotechnology and synthetic biology to conventional remediation methods. Subject matter experts provided judgments regarding the importance of criteria used in the evaluations and scored the technologies with respect to those criteria. The results indicate that synthetic biology may be preferred over nanotechnology and conventional methods for high expected benefits and low deployment costs but that conventional technology may be preferred over emerging technologies for reduced risks and development costs. In the absence of field data regarding the risks, benefits, and costs of emerging technologies, structuring evidence-based expert judgment through a weighted hierarchy of topical questions may be helpful to inform preliminary risk governance and guide emerging technology development and policy.

Assessing exposure risks for freshwater tilapia species posed by mercury and methylmercury.

PubMed

Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; You, Shu-Han; Yang, Ying-Fei; How, Chun Ming; Tseng, Yi-Ting; Chen, Wei-Yu; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-08-01

Waterborne and dietborne exposures of freshwater fish to mercury (Hg) in the forms of inorganic (Hg(II)) and organic (methylmercury or MeHg) affect their growth, development, and reproduction. However, an integrated mechanistic risk model framework to predict the impact of Hg(II)/MeHg on freshwater fish is lacking. Here, we integrated biokinetic, physiological and biogeographic data to calibrate and then establish key risk indices-hazardous quotient and exceedance risk-for freshwater tilapia species across geographic ranges of several major rivers in Taiwan. We found that Hg(II) burden was highest in kidney followed by gill, intestine, liver, blood, and muscle. Our results showed that Hg was less likely to pose mortality risk (mortality rate less than 5 %) for freshwater tilapia species. However, Hg is likely to pose the potential hazard to aquatic environments constrained by safety levels for aquatic organisms. Sensitivity analysis showed that amount of Hg accumulated in tilapia was most influenced by sediment uptake rate. Our approach opens up new possibilities for predicting future fish population health with the impacts of continued Hg exposure to provide information on which fish are deemed safe for human consumption.

Integrated primary care, the collaboration imperative inter-organizational cooperation in the integrated primary care field: a theoretical framework

PubMed Central

Valentijn, Pim P; Bruijnzeels, Marc A; de Leeuw, Rob J; Schrijvers, Guus J.P

2012-01-01

Purpose Capacity problems and political pressures have led to a rapid change in the organization of primary care from mono disciplinary small business to complex inter-organizational relationships. It is assumed that inter-organizational collaboration is the driving force to achieve integrated (primary) care. Despite the importance of collaboration and integration of services in primary care, there is no unambiguous definition for both concepts. The purpose of this study is to examine and link the conceptualisation and validation of the terms inter-organizational collaboration and integrated primary care using a theoretical framework. Theory The theoretical framework is based on the complex collaboration process of negotiation among multiple stakeholder groups in primary care. Methods A literature review of health sciences and business databases, and targeted grey literature sources. Based on the literature review we operationalized the constructs of inter-organizational collaboration and integrated primary care in a theoretical framework. The framework is being validated in an explorative study of 80 primary care projects in the Netherlands. Results and conclusions Integrated primary care is considered as a multidimensional construct based on a continuum of integration, extending from segregation to integration. The synthesis of the current theories and concepts of inter-organizational collaboration is insufficient to deal with the complexity of collaborative issues in primary care. One coherent and integrated theoretical framework was found that could make the complex collaboration process in primary care transparent. This study presented theoretical framework is a first step to understand the patterns of successful collaboration and integration in primary care services. These patterns can give insights in the organization forms needed to create a good working integrated (primary) care system that fits the local needs of a population. Preliminary data of the patterns of collaboration and integration will be presented.

The need for a behavioural science focus in research on mental health and mental disorders.

PubMed

Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Knappe, Susanne; Andersson, Gerhard; Araya, Ricardo; Banos Rivera, Rosa M; Barkham, Michael; Bech, Per; Beckers, Tom; Berger, Thomas; Berking, Matthias; Berrocal, Carmen; Botella, Christina; Carlbring, Per; Chouinard, Guy; Colom, Francesc; Csillag, Claudio; Cujipers, Pim; David, Daniel; Emmelkamp, Paul M G; Essau, Cecilia A; Fava, Giovanni A; Goschke, Thomas; Hermans, Dirk; Hofmann, Stefan G; Lutz, Wolfgang; Muris, Peter; Ollendick, Thomas H; Raes, Filip; Rief, Winfried; Riper, Heleen; Tossani, Eliana; van der Oord, Saskia; Vervliet, Bram; Haro, Josep M; Schumann, Gunter

2014-01-01

Psychology as a science offers an enormous diversity of theories, principles, and methodological approaches to understand mental health, abnormal functions and behaviours and mental disorders. A selected overview of the scope, current topics as well as strength and gaps in Psychological Science may help to depict the advances needed to inform future research agendas specifically on mental health and mental disorders. From an integrative psychological perspective, most maladaptive health behaviours and mental disorders can be conceptualized as the result of developmental dysfunctions of psychological functions and processes as well as neurobiological and genetic processes that interact with the environment. The paper presents and discusses an integrative translational model, linking basic and experimental research with clinical research as well as population-based prospective-longitudinal studies. This model provides a conceptual framework to identify how individual vulnerabilities interact with environment over time, and promote critical behaviours that might act as proximal risk factors for ill-health and mental disorders. Within the models framework, such improved knowledge is also expected to better delineate targeted preventive and therapeutic interventions that prevent further escalation in early stages before the full disorder and further complications thereof develop. In contrast to conventional "personalized medicine" that typically targets individual (genetic) variation of patients who already have developed a disease to improve medical treatment, the proposed framework model, linked to a concerted funding programme of the "Science of Behaviour Change", carries the promise of improved diagnosis, treatment and prevention of health-risk behaviour constellations as well as mental disorders. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Understanding integrated care: a comprehensive conceptual framework based on the integrative functions of primary care

PubMed Central

Valentijn, Pim P.; Schepman, Sanneke M.; Opheij, Wilfrid; Bruijnzeels, Marc A.

2013-01-01

Introduction Primary care has a central role in integrating care within a health system. However, conceptual ambiguity regarding integrated care hampers a systematic understanding. This paper proposes a conceptual framework that combines the concepts of primary care and integrated care, in order to understand the complexity of integrated care. Methods The search method involved a combination of electronic database searches, hand searches of reference lists (snowball method) and contacting researchers in the field. The process of synthesizing the literature was iterative, to relate the concepts of primary care and integrated care. First, we identified the general principles of primary care and integrated care. Second, we connected the dimensions of integrated care and the principles of primary care. Finally, to improve content validity we held several meetings with researchers in the field to develop and refine our conceptual framework. Results The conceptual framework combines the functions of primary care with the dimensions of integrated care. Person-focused and population-based care serve as guiding principles for achieving integration across the care continuum. Integration plays complementary roles on the micro (clinical integration), meso (professional and organisational integration) and macro (system integration) level. Functional and normative integration ensure connectivity between the levels. Discussion The presented conceptual framework is a first step to achieve a better understanding of the inter-relationships among the dimensions of integrated care from a primary care perspective. PMID:23687482

Understanding integrated care: a comprehensive conceptual framework based on the integrative functions of primary care.

PubMed

Valentijn, Pim P; Schepman, Sanneke M; Opheij, Wilfrid; Bruijnzeels, Marc A

2013-01-01

Primary care has a central role in integrating care within a health system. However, conceptual ambiguity regarding integrated care hampers a systematic understanding. This paper proposes a conceptual framework that combines the concepts of primary care and integrated care, in order to understand the complexity of integrated care. The search method involved a combination of electronic database searches, hand searches of reference lists (snowball method) and contacting researchers in the field. The process of synthesizing the literature was iterative, to relate the concepts of primary care and integrated care. First, we identified the general principles of primary care and integrated care. Second, we connected the dimensions of integrated care and the principles of primary care. Finally, to improve content validity we held several meetings with researchers in the field to develop and refine our conceptual framework. The conceptual framework combines the functions of primary care with the dimensions of integrated care. Person-focused and population-based care serve as guiding principles for achieving integration across the care continuum. Integration plays complementary roles on the micro (clinical integration), meso (professional and organisational integration) and macro (system integration) level. Functional and normative integration ensure connectivity between the levels. The presented conceptual framework is a first step to achieve a better understanding of the inter-relationships among the dimensions of integrated care from a primary care perspective.

A PROgramme of Lifestyle Intervention in Families for Cardiovascular risk reduction (PROLIFIC Study): design and rationale of a family based randomized controlled trial in individuals with family history of premature coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Harikrishnan, S; Sanjay, G; Sivasubramonian, Sivasankaran; Lekha, T R; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Tandon, Nikhil; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj

2017-01-05

Recognizing patterns of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in families helps to identify and target individuals who may have the most to gain from preventive interventions. The overall goal of the study is to test the effectiveness and sustainability of an integrated care model for managing cardiovascular risk in high risk families. The proposed care model targets the structural and environmental conditions that predispose high risk families to development of CHD through the following interventions: 1) screening for cardiovascular risk factors, 2) providing lifestyle interventions 3) providing a framework for linkage to appropriate primary health care facility, and 4) active follow-up of intervention adherence. Initially, a formative qualitative research component will gather information on understanding of diseases, barriers to care, specific components of the intervention package and feedback on the intervention. Then a cluster randomized controlled trial involving 740 families comprising 1480 participants will be conducted to determine whether the package of interventions (integrated care model) is effective in reducing or preventing the progression of CHD risk factors and risk factor clustering in families. The sustainability and scalability of this intervention will be assessed through economic (cost-effectiveness analyses) and qualitative evaluation (process outcomes) to estimate value and acceptability. Scalability is informed by cost-effectiveness and acceptability of the integrated cardiovascular risk reduction approach. Knowledge generated from this trial has the potential to significantly affect new programmatic policy and clinical guidelines that will lead to improvements in cardiovascular health in India. NCT02771873, registered in May 2016 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT02771873 ).

Measuring and improving patient safety through health information technology: The Health IT Safety Framework

PubMed Central

Singh, Hardeep

2016-01-01

Health information technology (health IT) has potential to improve patient safety but its implementation and use has led to unintended consequences and new safety concerns. A key challenge to improving safety in health IT-enabled healthcare systems is to develop valid, feasible strategies to measure safety concerns at the intersection of health IT and patient safety. In response to the fundamental conceptual and methodological gaps related to both defining and measuring health IT-related patient safety, we propose a new framework, the Health IT Safety (HITS) measurement framework, to provide a conceptual foundation for health IT-related patient safety measurement, monitoring, and improvement. The HITS framework follows both Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) and sociotechnical approaches and calls for new measures and measurement activities to address safety concerns in three related domains: 1) concerns that are unique and specific to technology (e.g., to address unsafe health IT related to unavailable or malfunctioning hardware or software); 2) concerns created by the failure to use health IT appropriately or by misuse of health IT (e.g. to reduce nuisance alerts in the electronic health record (EHR)), and 3) the use of health IT to monitor risks, health care processes and outcomes and identify potential safety concerns before they can harm patients (e.g. use EHR-based algorithms to identify patients at risk for medication errors or care delays). The framework proposes to integrate both retrospective and prospective measurement of HIT safety with an organization's existing clinical risk management and safety programs. It aims to facilitate organizational learning, comprehensive 360 degree assessment of HIT safety that includes vendor involvement, refinement of measurement tools and strategies, and shared responsibility to identify problems and implement solutions. A long term framework goal is to enable rigorous measurement that helps achieve the safety benefits of health IT in real-world clinical settings. PMID:26369894

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aalst, M.

Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts atmore » risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current climate conditions. There are several ways in which the World Bank Group can continue helping its clients better manage climate risks to poverty reduction and sustainable development: Integrating climate risk management into the project cycle, by adopting early risk identification (for instance by applying a quick and simple risk-screening tool) and following up throughout the design process if necessary. Integrating climate risk management into country and sector dialogues, especially in countries and sectors that are particularly vulnerable. Enhancing internal support for and coordination of climate risk management by, for example, expanding analytical work and capacity for cross-support by the Global Climate Change Team and the Hazard Management Unit of the World Bank and by actively developing climate risk management activities within regional departments. Supporting the establishment of proper financing mechanisms for adaptation, using, for example, the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development. New funding mechanisms created under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and being made operational by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), as well as the Kyoto Protocol, should be used to leverage maximum adaptation results within the Bank's broad range of development activities and investments. By enhancing climate risk management, the World Bank Group will be able to address the growing risks from climate change and, at the same time, make current development investments more resilient to climate variability and extreme weather events. In that way, climate risk management will not only guard the Bank's investments in a changing climate but will also improve the impact of development efforts right now.« less

Novel cloud and SOA-based framework for e-health monitoring using wireless biosensors.

PubMed

Benharref, Abdelghani; Serhani, Mohamed Adel

2014-01-01

Various and independent studies are showing that an exponential increase of chronic diseases (CDs) is exhausting governmental and private healthcare systems to an extent that some countries allocate half of their budget to healthcare systems. To benefit from the IT development, e-health monitoring and prevention approaches revealed to be among top promising solutions. In fact, well-implemented monitoring and prevention schemes have reported a decent reduction of CDs risk and have narrowed their effects, on both patients' health conditions and on government budget spent on healthcare. In this paper, we propose a framework to collect patients' data in real time, perform appropriate nonintrusive monitoring, and propose medical and/or life style engagements, whenever needed and appropriate. The framework, which relies on service-oriented architecture (SOA) and the Cloud, allows a seamless integration of different technologies, applications, and services. It also integrates mobile technologies to smoothly collect and communicate vital data from a patient's wearable biosensors while considering the mobile devices' limited capabilities and power drainage in addition to intermittent network disconnections. Then, data are stored in the Cloud and made available via SOA to allow easy access by physicians, paramedics, or any other authorized entity. A case study has been developed to evaluate the usability of the framework, and the preliminary results that have been analyzed are showing very promising results.

Global oral health in the framework of the Global Charter for the Public's Health.

PubMed

Lee, Hyewon; Lomazzi, Marta; Lee, Aimee; Bedi, Raman

2018-05-01

Oral diseases are a neglected epidemic affecting all ages globally and can substantially impact overall health and well-being. Even though most oral diseases are preventable and share major risk factors with other non-communicable diseases, integration of oral health into public health systems is still limited in both clinical and health policy perspectives. This Viewpoint aims to highlight oral health from a global health perspective, calling for all public health leaders to advocate for oral health of all. We strongly recommend oral health as an essential part of public health policy and oral health-related activities to be aligned with the Global Charter for the Public's Health Framework.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

A conceptual framework of stress vulnerability, depression, and health outcomes in women: potential uses in research on complementary therapies for depression.

PubMed

Kinser, Patricia A; Lyon, Debra E

2014-09-01

Depression is a chronic mental health condition that affects millions of individuals worldwide. It is well-established that psychological stress plays an integral role in depression and that depression has numerous negative health outcomes. However, a closer look at components of stress vulnerabilities and depression is required to allow for the development and testing of appropriate interventions. This article describes a conceptual framework about the complex and bidirectional relationship between stress vulnerability, depression, and health outcomes in women. The authors elucidate how the framework can be applied in clinical research about cellular aging and on the mechanisms of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for depression, using yoga as an example of a CAM modality. The proposed conceptual framework may be helpful for adding depth to the body of knowledge about the use of mind-body therapies for individuals at high risk of stress vulnerability and/or depression.

Theory of Planned Behavior in School-Based Adolescent Problem Gambling Prevention: A Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

St-Pierre, Renée A; Temcheff, Caroline E; Derevensky, Jeffrey L; Gupta, Rina

2015-12-01

Given its serious implications for psychological and socio-emotional health, the prevention of problem gambling among adolescents is increasingly acknowledged as an area requiring attention. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) is a well-established model of behavior change that has been studied in the development and evaluation of primary preventive interventions aimed at modifying cognitions and behavior. However, the utility of the TPB has yet to be explored as a framework for the development of adolescent problem gambling prevention initiatives. This paper first examines the existing empirical literature addressing the effectiveness of school-based primary prevention programs for adolescent gambling. Given the limitations of existing programs, we then present a conceptual framework for the integration of the TPB in the development of effective problem gambling preventive interventions. The paper describes the TPB, demonstrates how the framework has been applied to gambling behavior, and reviews the strengths and limitations of the model for the design of primary prevention initiatives targeting adolescent risk and addictive behaviors, including adolescent gambling.

A conceptual framework of stress vulnerability, depression, and health outcomes in women: potential uses in research on complementary therapies for depression

PubMed Central

Kinser, Patricia A; Lyon, Debra E

2014-01-01

Background Depression is a chronic mental health condition that affects millions of individuals worldwide. It is well-established that psychological stress plays an integral role in depression and that depression has numerous negative health outcomes. However, a closer look at components of stress vulnerabilities and depression is required to allow for the development and testing of appropriate interventions. Aims and Discussion This article describes a conceptual framework about the complex and bidirectional relationship between stress vulnerability, depression, and health outcomes in women. The authors elucidate how the framework can be applied in clinical research about cellular aging and on the mechanisms of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for depression, using yoga as an example of a CAM modality. Conclusion The proposed conceptual framework may be helpful for adding depth to the body of knowledge about the use of mind-body therapies for individuals at high risk of stress vulnerability and/or depression. PMID:25328843

Sustainable development of process facilities: state-of-the-art review of pollution prevention frameworks.

PubMed

Hossain, Khandoker A; Khan, Faisal I; Hawboldt, Kelly

2008-01-15

Pollution prevention (P2) strategy is receiving significant attention in industries all over the world, over end-of-pipe pollution control and management strategy. This paper is a review of the existing pollution prevention frameworks. The reviewed frameworks contributed significantly to bring the P2 approach into practice and gradually improved it towards a sustainable solution; nevertheless, some objectives are yet to be achieved. In this context, the paper has proposed a P2 framework 'IP2M' addressing the limitations for systematic implementation of the P2 program in industries at design as well as retrofit stages. The main features of the proposed framework are that, firstly, it has integrated cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) tool with other adequate P2 opportunity analysis tools in P2 opportunity analysis phase and secondly, it has re-used the risk-based cradle-to-gate LCA during the environmental evaluation of different P2 options. Furthermore, in multi-objective optimization phase, it simultaneously considers the P2 options with available end-of-pipe control options in order to select the sustainable environmental management option.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework.

PubMed

Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E

2016-05-03

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.

Setting conservation priorities.

PubMed

Wilson, Kerrie A; Carwardine, Josie; Possingham, Hugh P

2009-04-01

A generic framework for setting conservation priorities based on the principles of classic decision theory is provided. This framework encapsulates the key elements of any problem, including the objective, the constraints, and knowledge of the system. Within the context of this framework the broad array of approaches for setting conservation priorities are reviewed. While some approaches prioritize assets or locations for conservation investment, it is concluded here that prioritization is incomplete without consideration of the conservation actions required to conserve the assets at particular locations. The challenges associated with prioritizing investments through time in the face of threats (and also spatially and temporally heterogeneous costs) can be aided by proper problem definition. Using the authors' general framework for setting conservation priorities, multiple criteria can be rationally integrated and where, how, and when to invest conservation resources can be scheduled. Trade-offs are unavoidable in priority setting when there are multiple considerations, and budgets are almost always finite. The authors discuss how trade-offs, risks, uncertainty, feedbacks, and learning can be explicitly evaluated within their generic framework for setting conservation priorities. Finally, they suggest ways that current priority-setting approaches may be improved.

Risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals at large spatial scales: Model development and application to contaminants originating from urban areas in the Saint Lawrence River Basin.

PubMed

Grill, Günther; Khan, Usman; Lehner, Bernhard; Nicell, Jim; Ariwi, Joseph

2016-01-15

Chemicals released into freshwater systems threaten ecological functioning and may put aquatic life and the health of humans at risk. We developed a new contaminant fate model (CFM) that follows simple, well-established methodologies and is unique in its cross-border, seamless hydrological and geospatial framework, including lake routing, a critical component in northern environments. We validated the model using the pharmaceutical Carbamazepine and predicted eco-toxicological risk for 15 pharmaceuticals in the Saint-Lawrence River Basin, Canada. The results indicated negligible to low environmental risk for the majority of tested chemicals, while two pharmaceuticals showed elevated risk in up to 13% of rivers affected by municipal effluents. As an integrated model, our CFM is designed for application at very large scales with the primary goal of detecting high risk zones. In regulatory frameworks, it can help screen existing or new chemicals entering the market regarding their potential impact on human and environmental health. Due to its high geospatial resolution, our CFM can also facilitate the prioritization of actions, such as identifying regions where reducing contamination sources or upgrading treatment plants is most pertinent to achieve targeted pollutant removal or to protect drinking water resources. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low-Altitude Overflights by Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Military Aircraft

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Efroymson, R.A.

2001-01-12

This is a companion report to the risk assessment framework proposed by Suter et al. (1998): ''A Framework for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources,'' hereafter referred to as the ''generic framework.'' The generic framework is an ecological risk assessment methodology for use in environmental assessments on Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In the generic framework, the ecological risk assessment framework of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1998) is modified for use in the context of (1) multiple and diverse stressors and activities at a military installation and (2) risks resulting from causal chains,more » e.g., effects on habitat that indirectly impact wildlife. Both modifications are important if the EPA framework is to be used on military installations. In order for the generic risk assessment framework to be useful to DoD environmental staff and contractors, the framework must be applied to specific training and testing activities. Three activity-specific ecological risk assessment frameworks have been written (1) to aid environmental staff in conducting risk assessments that involve these activities and (2) to guide staff in the development of analogous frameworks for other DoD activities. The three activities are: (1) low-altitude overflights by fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft (this volume), (2) firing at targets on land, and (3) ocean explosions. The activities were selected as priority training and testing activities by the advisory committee for this project.« less

Labor markets and health: an integrated life course perspective.

PubMed

Amick, Benjamin C; McLeod, Christopher B; Bültmann, Ute

2016-07-01

Current work and health research is fragmented, focusing on jobs, exposures, specific worker groups, work organization, or employment contracts. An emphasis on the labor market in framing the work and health relationship conceptualizes work not only as an exposure that increases or lessens health risk but also as a life course experience that is dependent on place and time. The intention is to illustrate how the labor markets and health framework coupled with a life course perspective extends other epidemiological approaches to work and health to identify new research questions. Taking the changing nature of work and labor markets into account, this paper updates the labor markets and health framework. It then reviews, defines, and integrates key life course concepts. A model is developed that guides the understanding of how labor markets and health trajectories emerge from the consideration of the working life course in a social context. The application leads to new research questions investigating characteristics of labor markets and health trajectories that may lead to positive health outcomes over the life course.

The use of concept mapping for scale development and validation in evaluation.

PubMed

Rosas, Scott R; Camphausen, Lauren C

2007-05-01

Evaluators often make key decisions about what content to include when designing new scales. However, without clear conceptual grounding, there is a risk these decisions may compromise the scale's validity. Techniques such as concept mapping are available to evaluators for the specification of conceptual frameworks, but have not been used as a fully integrated part of scale development. As part of a multi-site evaluation of family support programs, we integrated concept mapping with traditional scale-development processes to strengthen the creation of a scale for inclusion in an evaluation instrument. Using concept mapping, we engaged staff and managers in the development of a framework of intended benefits of program participation and used the information to systematically select the scale's content. The psychometric characteristics of the scale were then formally assessed using a sample of program participants. The implications of the approach for supporting construct validity, inclusion of staff and managers, and theory-driven evaluation are discussed.

Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horton, R. M.

2016-12-01

The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISA's, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through 1) stakeholder surveys, 2) webinar series that enable scientists to engage with stakeholders, 3) leveraging extreme events as focusing opportunities, and 4) the development of an integrated project framework. Moving forward, increasing extreme events can lead to unexpected detours, and further effort is needed around facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

Development of a conceptual framework toward an integrated transportation system : final report, April 10, 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-10

This report documents research on the conceptual framework of an integrated transportation system with a prototype application under the framework. Three levels of control are involved in this framework: at the global level (an entire transportation ...

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

PubMed

Brack, Werner; Altenburger, Rolf; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Krauss, Martin; López Herráez, David; van Gils, Jos; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; Munthe, John; Gawlik, Bernd Manfred; van Wezel, Annemarie; Schriks, Merijn; Hollender, Juliane; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Mekenyan, Ovanes; Dimitrov, Saby; Bunke, Dirk; Cousins, Ian; Posthuma, Leo; van den Brink, Paul J; López de Alda, Miren; Barceló, Damià; Faust, Michael; Kortenkamp, Andreas; Scrimshaw, Mark; Ignatova, Svetlana; Engelen, Guy; Massmann, Gudrun; Lemkine, Gregory; Teodorovic, Ivana; Walz, Karl-Heinz; Dulio, Valeria; Jonker, Michiel T O; Jäger, Felix; Chipman, Kevin; Falciani, Francesco; Liska, Igor; Rooke, David; Zhang, Xiaowei; Hollert, Henner; Vrana, Branislav; Hilscherova, Klara; Kramer, Kees; Neumann, Steffen; Hammerbacher, Ruth; Backhaus, Thomas; Mack, Juliane; Segner, Helmut; Escher, Beate; de Aragão Umbuzeiro, Gisela

2015-01-15

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disability rights in the context of HIV and AIDS: a critical review of nineteen Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) countries.

PubMed

Hanass-Hancock, Jill; Grant, Catherine; Strode, Ann

2012-01-01

Many Eastern and Southern African (ESA) states are obliged to review and amend their legal frameworks with regards to disability since signing and ratifying the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD). The HIV epidemic is one of the main health concerns in the region and is becoming increasingly associated with causing disabilities. In addition, people with disabilities are particularly at risk of exposure to HIV. Despite this, HIV programming has not yet included the interrelationship of disability and HIV. The principles within the CRPD may create much-needed international pressure and so provide a platform for the integration and inclusion of disability into HIV policies and programs. This paper is based on a review of the legal framework in relation to HIV and disability in 19 ESA countries. It identifies 12 key articles of the Convention, which are particularly relevant to the interrelationship of HIV and disability. The paper assesses how these are integrated in the region's disability or HIV legal frameworks and identifies the main gaps within these legal systems. While many country's constitutions, disability and HIV laws protect certain key rights, such as the rights to equality and nondiscrimination, employment and health, there are clear gaps in the legal responses to disability and HIV. In particular, legal frameworks fail to provide adequately for accessibility, mobility and access to justice and protection from violence for people with disabilities. This results in limited protection for people with disabilities from HIV exposure and access to services to address HIV-related health and welfare needs. The paper identifies the gaps and makes recommendations for implementing steps toward the integration of disability into HIV-related laws, policies and programs.

Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

2016-01-01

NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

Integrating the fundamentals of care framework in baccalaureate nursing education: An example from a nursing school in Denmark.

PubMed

Voldbjerg, Siri Lygum; Laugesen, Britt; Bahnsen, Iben Bøgh; Jørgensen, Lone; Sørensen, Ingrid Maria; Grønkjaer, Mette; Sørensen, Erik Elgaard

2018-06-01

To describe and discuss the process of integrating the Fundamentals of Care framework in a baccalaureate nursing education at a School of Nursing in Denmark. Nursing education plays an essential role in educating nurses to work within healthcare systems in which a demanding workload on nurses results in fundamental nursing care being left undone. Newly graduated nurses often lack knowledge and skills to meet the challenges of delivering fundamental care in clinical practice. To develop nursing students' understanding of fundamental nursing, the conceptual Fundamentals of Care framework has been integrated in nursing education at a School of Nursing in Denmark. Discursive paper using an adjusted descriptive case study design for describing and discussing the process of integrating the conceptual Fundamentals of Care Framework in nursing education. The process of integrating the Fundamentals of Care framework is illuminated through a description of the context, in which the process occurs including the faculty members, lectures, case-based work and simulation laboratory in nursing education. Based on this description, opportunities such as supporting a holistic approach to an evidence-based integrative patient care and challenges such as scepticism among the faculty are discussed. It is suggested how integration of Fundamentals of Care Framework in lectures, case-based work and simulation laboratory can make fundamental nursing care more explicit in nursing education, support critical thinking and underline the relevance of evidence-based practice. The process relies on a supportive context, a well-informed and engaged faculty, and continuous reflections on how the conceptual framework can be integrated. Integrating the Fundamentals of Care framework can support nursing students' critical thinking and reflection on what fundamental nursing care is and requires and eventually educate nurses in providing evidence-based fundamental nursing care. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Framework for Sharing and Integrating Remote Sensing and GIS Models Based on Web Service

PubMed Central

Chen, Zeqiang; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Liu, Deer; Bao, Ying; Ding, Yulin

2014-01-01

Sharing and integrating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System/Science (GIS) models are critical for developing practical application systems. Facilitating model sharing and model integration is a problem for model publishers and model users, respectively. To address this problem, a framework based on a Web service for sharing and integrating RS and GIS models is proposed in this paper. The fundamental idea of the framework is to publish heterogeneous RS and GIS models into standard Web services for sharing and interoperation and then to integrate the RS and GIS models using Web services. For the former, a “black box” and a visual method are employed to facilitate the publishing of the models as Web services. For the latter, model integration based on the geospatial workflow and semantic supported marching method is introduced. Under this framework, model sharing and integration is applied for developing the Pearl River Delta water environment monitoring system. The results show that the framework can facilitate model sharing and model integration for model publishers and model users. PMID:24901016

A framework for sharing and integrating remote sensing and GIS models based on Web service.

PubMed

Chen, Zeqiang; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Liu, Deer; Bao, Ying; Ding, Yulin

2014-01-01

Sharing and integrating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System/Science (GIS) models are critical for developing practical application systems. Facilitating model sharing and model integration is a problem for model publishers and model users, respectively. To address this problem, a framework based on a Web service for sharing and integrating RS and GIS models is proposed in this paper. The fundamental idea of the framework is to publish heterogeneous RS and GIS models into standard Web services for sharing and interoperation and then to integrate the RS and GIS models using Web services. For the former, a "black box" and a visual method are employed to facilitate the publishing of the models as Web services. For the latter, model integration based on the geospatial workflow and semantic supported marching method is introduced. Under this framework, model sharing and integration is applied for developing the Pearl River Delta water environment monitoring system. The results show that the framework can facilitate model sharing and model integration for model publishers and model users.

Framework Programmable Platform for the advanced software development workstation: Framework processor design document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayer, Richard J.; Blinn, Thomas M.; Mayer, Paula S. D.; Ackley, Keith A.; Crump, Wes; Sanders, Les

1991-01-01

The design of the Framework Processor (FP) component of the Framework Programmable Software Development Platform (FFP) is described. The FFP is a project aimed at combining effective tool and data integration mechanisms with a model of the software development process in an intelligent integrated software development environment. Guided by the model, this Framework Processor will take advantage of an integrated operating environment to provide automated support for the management and control of the software development process so that costly mistakes during the development phase can be eliminated.

Testing an innovative framework for flood forecasting, monitoring and mapping in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Between May and June 2016, France was hit by severe floods, particularly in the Loire and Seine river basins. In this work, we use this case study to test an innovative framework for flood forecasting, mapping and monitoring. More in detail, the system integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. We explore in detail the performance of each component of the system, demonstrating the improvements in respect to stand-alone flood forecasting and monitoring systems. We show how the performances of the forecasting component can be refined using the real-time feedback from social media monitoring to identify which areas were flooded, to evaluate the flood intensity, and therefore to correct impact estimations. Moreover, we show how the integration with impact forecast and social media monitoring can improve the timeliness and efficiency of satellite based emergency mapping, and reduce the chances of missing areas where flooding is already happening. These results illustrate how the new integrated approach leads to a better and earlier decision making and a timely evaluation of impacts.

An Integrative Risk Management/Governance Framework for Homeland Security Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

key modes of transportation include highways, motor carrier (trucking), motor coach ( intercity bus), maritime, pipeline, rail (passenger and freight...2004 Overview: A blast tore apart a metro train car in Moscow during the morning rush hour on February 6, 2004. The train was traveling between the...Circle Line train, No. 204, traveling from Liverpool Street to Aldgate Station. Within one minute, a second explosion took place on Circle Line train

Biodiversity, traditional medicine and public health: where do they meet?

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Given the increased use of traditional medicines, possibilities that would ensure its successful integration into a public health framework should be explored. This paper discusses some of the links between biodiversity and traditional medicine, and addresses their implications to public health. We explore the importance of biodiversity and ecosystem services to global and human health, the risks which human impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity present to human health and welfare. PMID:17376227

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Social determinants and lifestyles: integrating environmental and public health perspectives.

PubMed

Graham, H; White, P C L

2016-12-01

Industrialization and urbanization have been associated with an epidemiological transition, from communicable to non-communicable disease, and a geological transition that is moving the planet beyond the stable Holocene epoch in which human societies have prospered. The lifestyles of high-income countries are major drivers of these twin processes. Our objective is to highlight the common causes of chronic disease and environmental change and, thereby, contribute to shared perspectives across public health and the environment. Integrative reviews focused on social determinants and lifestyles as two 'bridging' concepts between the fields of public health and environmental sustainability. We drew on established frameworks to consider the position of the natural environment within social determinants of health (SDH) frameworks and the position of social determinants within environmental frameworks. We drew on evidence on lifestyle factors central to both public health and environmental change (mobility- and diet-related factors). We investigated how public health's focus on individual behaviour can be enriched by environmental perspectives that give attention to household consumption practices. While SDH frameworks can incorporate the biophysical environment, their causal structure positions it as a determinant and one largely separate from the social factors that shape it. Environmental frameworks are more likely to represent the environment and its ecosystems as socially determined. A few frameworks also include human health as an outcome, providing the basis for a combined public health/environmental sustainability framework. Environmental analyses of household impacts broaden public health's concern with individual risk behaviours, pointing to the more damaging lifestyles of high-income households. The conditions for health are being undermined by rapid environmental change. There is scope for frameworks reaching across public health and environmental sustainability and a shared evidence base that captures the health- and environmentally damaging impacts of high-consumption lifestyles. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. Results The framework’s results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). Conclusions The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model’s results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU. PMID:24992824

Application of a QMRA Framework to Inform Selection of Drinking Water Interventions in the Developing Context.

PubMed

Petterson, S R

2016-02-01

The aim of this study was to develop a modified quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework that could be applied as a decision support tool to choose between alternative drinking water interventions in the developing context. The impact of different household water treatment (HWT) interventions on the overall incidence of diarrheal disease and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was estimated, without relying on source water pathogen concentration as the starting point for the analysis. A framework was developed and a software tool constructed and then implemented for an illustrative case study for Nepal based on published scientific data. Coagulation combined with free chlorine disinfection provided the greatest estimated health gains in the short term; however, when long-term compliance was incorporated into the calculations, the preferred intervention was porous ceramic filtration. The model demonstrates how the QMRA framework can be used to integrate evidence from different studies to inform management decisions, and in particular to prioritize the next best intervention with respect to estimated reduction in diarrheal incidence. This study only considered HWT interventions; it is recognized that a systematic consideration of sanitation, recreation, and drinking water pathways is important for effective management of waterborne transmission of pathogens, and the approach could be expanded to consider the broader water-related context. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Consumer acceptance of technology-based food innovations: lessons for the future of nutrigenomics.

PubMed

Ronteltap, A; van Trijp, J C M; Renes, R J; Frewer, L J

2007-07-01

Determinants of consumer adoption of innovations have been studied from different angles and from the perspectives of various disciplines. In the food area, the literature is dominated by a focus on consumer concern. This paper reviews previous research into acceptance of technology-based innovation from both inside and outside the food domain, extracts key learnings from this literature and integrates them into a new conceptual framework for consumer acceptance of technology-based food innovations. The framework distinguishes 'distal' and 'proximal' determinants of acceptance. Distal factors (characteristics of the innovation, the consumer and the social system) influence consumers' intention to accept an innovation through proximal factors (perceived cost/benefit considerations, perceptions of risk and uncertainty, social norm and perceived behavioural control). The framework's application as a tool to anticipate consumer reaction to future innovations is illustrated for an actual technology-based innovation in food science, nutrigenomics (the interaction between nutrition and human genetics).

NOx SOx Secondary NAAQS: Integrated Review Plan ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The NOx SOx Secondary NAAQS Integrated Review Plan is the first document generated as part of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) review process. The Plan presents background information, the schedule for the review, the process to be used in conducting the review, and the key policy-relevant science issues that will guide the review. The integrated review plan also discusses the frameworks for the various assessment documents to be prepared by the EPA as part of the review, including an Integrated Science Assessment (ISA), and as warranted, a Risk/Exposure Assessment (REA), and a Policy Assessment (PA). The primary purpose of the NOx SOx Secondary NAAQS Integrated Review Plan is to highlight the key policy-relevant issues to be considered in the Review of the Oxides of Nitrogen and Oxides of Sulfur Secondary NAAQS. A draft of the integrated review plan will be the subject of an advisory review with the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) and made available to the public for review and comment.

Equipping providers with principles, knowledge and skills to successfully integrate behaviour change counselling into practice: a primary healthcare framework.

PubMed

Vallis, M; Lee-Baggley, D; Sampalli, T; Ryer, A; Ryan-Carson, S; Kumanan, K; Edwards, L

2018-01-01

There is an urgent need for healthcare providers and healthcare systems to support productive interactions with patients that promote sustained health behaviour change in order to improve patient and population health outcomes. Behaviour change theories and interventions have been developed and evaluated in experimental contexts; however, most healthcare providers have little training, and therefore low confidence in, behaviour change counselling. Particularly important is how to integrate theory and method to support healthcare providers to engage in behaviour change counselling competently. In this article, we describe a general training model developed from theory, evidence, experience and stakeholder engagement. This model will set the stage for future evaluation research on training needed to achieve competency, sustainability of competency, as well as effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of training in supporting behaviour change. A framework to support competency based training in behaviour change counselling is described in this article. This framework is designed to be integrative, sustainable, scalable and capable of being evaluated in follow-up studies. Effective training in behaviour change counselling is critical to meet the current and future healthcare needs of patients living with, or at risk of, chronic diseases. Increasing competency in establishing change-based relationships, assessing and promoting readiness to change, implementing behaviour modification and addressing psychosocial issues will be value added to the healthcare system. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks to advance the understanding of ecosystem function in heterogeneous landscapes: An analysis on the carbon fluxes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) of Wisconsin and Michigan.

PubMed

Yang, Haile; Chen, Jiakuan

2018-01-01

The successful integration of ecosystem ecology with landscape ecology would be conducive to understanding how landscapes function. There have been several attempts at this, with two main approaches: (1) an ecosystem-based approach, such as the meta-ecosystem framework and (2) a landscape-based approach, such as the landscape system framework. These two frameworks are currently disconnected. To integrate these two frameworks, we introduce a protocol, and then demonstrate application of the protocol using a case study. The protocol includes four steps: 1) delineating landscape systems; 2) classifying landscape systems; 3) adjusting landscape systems to meta-ecosystems and 4) integrating landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks through meta-ecosystems. The case study is the analyzing of the carbon fluxes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) of Wisconsin and Michigan using this protocol. The application of this protocol revealed that one could follow this protocol to construct a meta-ecosystem and analyze it using the integrative framework of landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks. That is, one could (1) appropriately describe and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the meta-ecosystem; (2) understand the emergent properties arising from spatial coupling of local ecosystems in the meta-ecosystem. In conclusion, this protocol is a useful approach for integrating the meta-ecosystem framework and the landscape system framework, which advances the describing and analyzing of the spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem function of interconnected ecosystems.

Integrating landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks to advance the understanding of ecosystem function in heterogeneous landscapes: An analysis on the carbon fluxes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) of Wisconsin and Michigan

PubMed Central

Chen, Jiakuan

2018-01-01

The successful integration of ecosystem ecology with landscape ecology would be conducive to understanding how landscapes function. There have been several attempts at this, with two main approaches: (1) an ecosystem-based approach, such as the meta-ecosystem framework and (2) a landscape-based approach, such as the landscape system framework. These two frameworks are currently disconnected. To integrate these two frameworks, we introduce a protocol, and then demonstrate application of the protocol using a case study. The protocol includes four steps: 1) delineating landscape systems; 2) classifying landscape systems; 3) adjusting landscape systems to meta-ecosystems and 4) integrating landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks through meta-ecosystems. The case study is the analyzing of the carbon fluxes in the Northern Highlands Lake District (NHLD) of Wisconsin and Michigan using this protocol. The application of this protocol revealed that one could follow this protocol to construct a meta-ecosystem and analyze it using the integrative framework of landscape system and meta-ecosystem frameworks. That is, one could (1) appropriately describe and analyze the spatial heterogeneity of the meta-ecosystem; (2) understand the emergent properties arising from spatial coupling of local ecosystems in the meta-ecosystem. In conclusion, this protocol is a useful approach for integrating the meta-ecosystem framework and the landscape system framework, which advances the describing and analyzing of the spatial heterogeneity and ecosystem function of interconnected ecosystems. PMID:29415066

Comparison of Physics Frameworks for WebGL-Based Game Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yogya, Resa; Kosala, Raymond

2014-03-01

Recently, a new technology called WebGL shows a lot of potentials for developing games. However since this technology is still new, there are still many potentials in the game development area that are not explored yet. This paper tries to uncover the potential of integrating physics frameworks with WebGL technology in a game engine for developing 2D or 3D games. Specifically we integrated three open source physics frameworks: Bullet, Cannon, and JigLib into a WebGL-based game engine. Using experiment, we assessed these frameworks in terms of their correctness or accuracy, performance, completeness and compatibility. The results show that it is possible to integrate open source physics frameworks into a WebGLbased game engine, and Bullet is the best physics framework to be integrated into the WebGL-based game engine.

New risk indicator approach for Operators, Workers, Bystanders and Residents for a sustainable use of plant protection products.

PubMed

Sacchettini, Gabriele; Calliera, Maura; Marchis, Alexandru; Glass, Richard; Ellis, Clare Butler; Machera, Kyriaki; Gerritsen-Ebben, Rianda; Spanoghe, Pieter; Capri, Ettore

2015-11-01

In 2009, the European Union adopted the Directive on Sustainable Use of pesticides (SUD, Directive 2009/128/EC) establishing a framework for achieving a sustainable use of Plant Protection Products (PPPs) through reducing the risks and impacts of PPP use on human health and the environment, promoting integrated pest management and stimulating effective non-chemical alternatives. The core idea of the SUD is that it is necessary to monitor the use of PPPs through the implementation of an appropriate set of risk indicators to monitor progress and trends in risk reduction within the Member States. To contribute to this direction, following a comprehensive analysis of the risk (including procedures of risk assessment and risk management) and involving stakeholders in the decision process, specific toolboxes of practical indirect risk indicators of exposure of Operators, Workers, Bystanders and Residents were developed and are now available to be used by Member States (MSs) based on their specific context.

Development and delivery of clinical pharmacology in regulatory agencies

PubMed Central

Breckenridge, Alasdair

2012-01-01

Medicines regulation is based on a foundation of science, policy and judgement. It operates within several frameworks (scientific, legal and public health), which are interdependent. While safety, quality and efficacy remain the criteria by which medicines are assessed, the benefit-to-harm balance for any medicine or medical device is of paramount importance. While the regulator was hitherto the gatekeeper who allowed a medicine on to the market, payers now require, in addition, assessment of cost and clinical effectiveness before use. As regulatory frameworks develop, several changes will occur, as follows: (i) formal benefit–harm assessment will become an integral part of submission for marketing authorizations; (ii) there will be greater use of surveillance for adverse reactions to new medicines using methods other than voluntary reporting; (iii) risk management plans will become benefit–risk management plans; (iv) life-saving medicines will be approved earlier; and (v) regulation and health technology assessment will take place simultaneously. Clinical pharmacologists will play important roles in these developments. PMID:22360651

The development of a competency framework for pharmacists providing cancer services.

PubMed

Carrington, Christine; Weir, Janet; Smith, Peter

2011-09-01

Health practitioners should possess relevant, up to date skills and be able to perform within their required scope of practice to ensure that they are competent. Maintaining the competency of health care professionals is a key principle of clinical governance and risk management. The aim of this project was to develop a competency framework for pharmacists providing pharmaceutical care to cancer patients. An initial draft framework was developed based on existing documentation and adapted to the needs of Queensland Health (QH) facilities. Pharmacists in QH and interstate were asked to review the framework for content and applicability. Cancer care pharmacists in QH were invited to evaluate and score the usefulness and relevance of the final framework. The framework consists of competency clusters, which describe core activities within three areas: patient care competencies, knowledge competencies, and advanced level competencies. The characteristics of the levels of practice at foundation, advanced, and consultant are defined. Twelve pharmacists evaluated the framework by self-assessing their own practice. Respondents reported that the framework was very to somewhat reflective of what they usually do and gave overall support for the content and applicability to practice. The framework has been developed using national and international documents and the input of experienced practitioners across Australia. It represents a set of key competencies for the pharmaceutical delivery of cancer care. The next essential step of the competency framework is to implement and integrate the framework into practice and to develop accompanying training tools.

Does integration matter? A holistic model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

PubMed

Kanta Kafle, Shesh

2017-01-01

This paper analyses an integrated communitybased risk reduction model adopted by the Pakistan Red Crescent. The paper analyses the model's constructs and definitions, and provides a conceptual framework and a set of practical recommendations for building community resilience. The study uses the process of outcome-based resilience index to assess the effectiveness of the approach. The results indicate that the integrated programming approach is an effective way to build community resilience as it offers a number of tangible and longlasting benefits, including effective and efficient service delivery, local ownership, sustainability of results, and improved local resilience with respect to the shock and stress associated with disaster. The paper also outlines a set of recommendations for the effective and efficient use of the model for building community resilience in Pakistan.

Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2012-12-01

Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

An adaptive, comprehensive monitoring strategy for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in California's Aquatic Ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Schlenk, Daniel; Anderson, Paul D; Denslow, Nancy D; Drewes, Jörg E; Olivieri, Adam W; Scott, Geoffrey I; Snyder, Shane A

2014-01-01

A scientific advisory panel was convened by the State of California to recommend monitoring for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in aquatic systems that receive discharge of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff. The panel developed a risk-based screening framework that considered environmental sources and fate of CECs observed in receiving waters across the State. Using existing occurrence and risk threshold data in water, sediment, and biological tissue, the panel applied the framework to identify a priority list of CECs for initial monitoring in three representative receiving water scenarios. The initial screening list of 16 CECs identified by the panel included consumer and commercial chemicals, flame retardants, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, and natural hormones. The panel designed an iterative, phased strategy with interpretive guidelines that direct and update management actions commensurate with potential risk identified using the risk-based framework and monitoring data. Because of the ever-changing nature of chemical use, technology, and management practices, the panel offered recommendations to improve CEC monitoring, including development of bioanalytical screening methods whose responses integrate exposure to complex mixtures and that can be linked to higher-order effects; development or refinement of models that predict the input, fate, and effects of future chemicals; and filling of key data gaps on CEC occurrence and toxicity. Finally, the panel stressed the need for adaptive management, allowing for future review of, and if warranted, modifications to the strategy to incorporate the latest science available to the water resources community. © 2013 SETAC.

Spatiotemporal causal modeling for the management of Dengue Fever

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Huang, Tailin; Lee, Chieh-Han

2015-04-01

Increasing climatic extremes have caused growing concerns about the health effects and disease outbreaks. The association between climate variation and the occurrence of epidemic diseases play an important role on a country's public health systems. Part of the impacts are direct casualties associated with the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, the proliferation of disease vectors and the short-term increase of clinic visits on gastro-intestinal discomforts, diarrhea, dermatosis, or psychological trauma. Other impacts come indirectly from the influence of disasters on the ecological and socio-economic systems, including the changes of air/water quality, living environment and employment condition. Previous risk assessment studies on dengue fever focus mostly on climatic and non-climatic factors and their association with vectors' reproducing pattern. The public-health implication may appear simple. Considering the seasonal changes and regional differences, however, the causality of the impacts is full of uncertainties. Without further investigation, the underlying dengue fever risk dynamics may not be assessed accurately. The objective of this study is to develop an epistemic framework for assessing dynamic dengue fever risk across space and time. The proposed framework integrates cross-departmental data, including public-health databases, precipitation data over time and various socio-economic data. We explore public-health issues induced by typhoon through literature review and spatiotemporal analytic techniques on public health databases. From those data, we identify relevant variables and possible causal relationships, and their spatiotemporal patterns derived from our proposed spatiotemporal techniques. Eventually, we create a spatiotemporal causal network and a framework for modeling dynamic dengue fever risk.

77 FR 44613 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-30

... External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment To Inform Decision Making AGENCY: U.S... external review draft of ``A Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making.'' This... a framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of...

White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

PubMed

Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

2015-07-15

The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more effective risk evaluation and consideration of the risks and benefits associated with the use of chemicals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High Possibility Classrooms as a Pedagogical Framework for Technology Integration in Classrooms: An Inquiry in Two Australian Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter, Jane

2017-01-01

Understanding how well teachers integrate digital technology in learning is the subject of considerable debate in education. High Possibility Classrooms (HPC) is a pedagogical framework drawn from research on exemplary teachers' knowledge of technology integration in Australian school classrooms. The framework is being used to support teachers who…

Integrating seasonal climate prediction and agricultural models for insights into agricultural practice

PubMed Central

Hansen, James W

2005-01-01

Interest in integrating crop simulation models with dynamic seasonal climate forecast models is expanding in response to a perceived opportunity to add value to seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture. Integrated modelling may help to address some obstacles to effective agricultural use of climate information. First, modelling can address the mismatch between farmers' needs and available operational forecasts. Probabilistic crop yield forecasts are directly relevant to farmers' livelihood decisions and, at a different scale, to early warning and market applications. Second, credible ex ante evidence of livelihood benefits, using integrated climate–crop–economic modelling in a value-of-information framework, may assist in the challenge of obtaining institutional, financial and political support; and inform targeting for greatest benefit. Third, integrated modelling can reduce the risk and learning time associated with adaptation and adoption, and related uncertainty on the part of advisors and advocates. It can provide insights to advisors, and enhance site-specific interpretation of recommendations when driven by spatial data. Model-based ‘discussion support systems’ contribute to learning and farmer–researcher dialogue. Integrated climate–crop modelling may play a genuine, but limited role in efforts to support climate risk management in agriculture, but only if they are used appropriately, with understanding of their capabilities and limitations, and with cautious evaluation of model predictions and of the insights that arises from model-based decision analysis. PMID:16433092

A Framework for Integrating Environmental and Occupational Health and Primary Care in a Postdisaster Context.

PubMed

Kirkland, Katherine; Sherman, Mya; Covert, Hannah; Barlet, Grace; Lichtveld, Maureen

Integration of environmental and occupational health (EOH) into primary care settings is a critical step to addressing the EOH concerns of a community, particularly in a postdisaster context. Several barriers to EOH integration exist at the physician, patient, and health care system levels. This article presents a framework for improving the health system's capacity to address EOH after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and illustrates its application in the Environmental and Occupational Health Education and Referral (EOHER) program. This program worked with 11 Federally Qualified Health Center systems in the Gulf Coast region to try to address the EOH concerns of community members and to assist primary care providers to better understand the impact of EOH factors on their patients' health. The framework uses a 3-pronged approach to (1) foster coordination between primary care and EOH facilities through a referral network and peer consultations, (2) increase physician capacity in EOH issues through continuing education and training, and (3) conduct outreach to community members about EOH issues. The EOHER program highlighted the importance of building strong partnerships with community members and other relevant organizations, as well as high organizational capacity and effective leadership to enable EOH integration into primary care settings. Physicians in the EOHER program were constrained in their ability to engage with EOH issues due to competing patient needs and time constraints, indicating the need to improve physicians' ability to assess which patients are at high risk for EOH exposures and to efficiently take environmental and occupational histories. This article highlights the importance of addressing EOH barriers at multiple levels and provides a model that can be applied to promote community health, particularly in the context of future natural or technological disasters.

A framework to promote collective action within the One Health community of practice: Using participatory modelling to enable interdisciplinary, cross-sectoral and multi-level integration.

PubMed

Binot, Aurelie; Duboz, Raphaël; Promburom, Panomsak; Phimpraphai, Waraphon; Cappelle, Julien; Lajaunie, Claire; Goutard, Flavie Luce; Pinyopummintr, Tanu; Figuié, Muriel; Roger, François Louis

2015-12-01

As Southeast Asia (SEA) is characterized by high human and domestic animal densities, growing intensification of trade, drastic land use changes and biodiversity erosion, this region appears to be a hotspot to study complex dynamics of zoonoses emergence and health issues at the Animal-Human-Environment interface. Zoonotic diseases and environmental health issues can have devastating socioeconomic and wellbeing impacts. Assessing and managing the related risks implies to take into account ecological and social dynamics at play, in link with epidemiological patterns. The implementation of a One Health ( OH ) approach in this context calls for improved integration among disciplines and improved cross-sectoral collaboration, involving stakeholders at different levels. For sure, such integration is not achieved spontaneously, implies methodological guidelines and has transaction costs. We explore pathways for implementing such collaboration in SEA context, highlighting the main challenges to be faced by researchers and other target groups involved in OH actions. On this basis, we propose a conceptual framework of OH integration. Throughout 3 components (field-based data management, professional training workshops and higher education), we suggest to develop a new culture of networking involving actors from various disciplines, sectors and levels (from the municipality to the Ministries) through a participatory modelling process, fostering synergies and cooperation. This framework could stimulate long-term dialogue process, based on the combination of case studies implementation and capacity building. It aims for implementing both institutional OH dynamics (multi-stakeholders and cross-sectoral) and research approaches promoting systems thinking and involving social sciences to follow-up and strengthen collective action.

A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

PubMed

Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

2013-09-01

This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

The importance of an integrating framework for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: the example of health and well-being.

PubMed

Nunes, Ana Raquel; Lee, Kelley; O'Riordan, Tim

2016-01-01

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development came into force in January 2016 as the central United Nations (UN) platform for achieving 'integrated and indivisible' goals and targets across the three characteristic dimensions of sustainable development: the social, environmental and economic. We argue that, despite the UN adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a framework for operationalising them in an integrated fashion is lacking. This article puts forth a framework for integrating health and well-being across the SDGs as both preconditions and outcomes of sustainable development. We present a rationale for this approach, and identify the challenges and opportunities for implementing and monitoring such a framework through a series of examples. We encourage other sectors to develop similar integrating frameworks for supporting a more coordinated approach for operationalising the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

The importance of an integrating framework for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals: the example of health and well-being

PubMed Central

Lee, Kelley; O'Riordan, Tim

2016-01-01

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development came into force in January 2016 as the central United Nations (UN) platform for achieving ‘integrated and indivisible’ goals and targets across the three characteristic dimensions of sustainable development: the social, environmental and economic. We argue that, despite the UN adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a framework for operationalising them in an integrated fashion is lacking. This article puts forth a framework for integrating health and well-being across the SDGs as both preconditions and outcomes of sustainable development. We present a rationale for this approach, and identify the challenges and opportunities for implementing and monitoring such a framework through a series of examples. We encourage other sectors to develop similar integrating frameworks for supporting a more coordinated approach for operationalising the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. PMID:28588955

New developments in the evolution and application of the WHO/IPCS framework on mode of action/species concordance analysis.

PubMed

Meek, M E; Boobis, A; Cote, I; Dellarco, V; Fotakis, G; Munn, S; Seed, J; Vickers, C

2014-01-01

The World Health Organization/International Programme on Chemical Safety mode of action/human relevance framework has been updated to reflect the experience acquired in its application and extend its utility to emerging areas in toxicity testing and non-testing methods. The underlying principles have not changed, but the framework's scope has been extended to enable integration of information at different levels of biological organization and reflect evolving experience in a much broader range of potential applications. Mode of action/species concordance analysis can also inform hypothesis-based data generation and research priorities in support of risk assessment. The modified framework is incorporated within a roadmap, with feedback loops encouraging continuous refinement of fit-for-purpose testing strategies and risk assessment. Important in this construct is consideration of dose-response relationships and species concordance analysis in weight of evidence. The modified Bradford Hill considerations have been updated and additionally articulated to reflect increasing experience in application for cases where the toxicological outcome of chemical exposure is known. The modified framework can be used as originally intended, where the toxicological effects of chemical exposure are known, or in hypothesizing effects resulting from chemical exposure, using information on putative key events in established modes of action from appropriate in vitro or in silico systems and other lines of evidence. This modified mode of action framework and accompanying roadmap and case examples are expected to contribute to improving transparency in explicitly addressing weight of evidence considerations in mode of action/species concordance analysis based on both conventional data sources and evolving methods. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. The World Health Organization retains copyright and all other rights in the manuscript of this article as submitted for publication.

Designing flexible engineering systems utilizing embedded architecture options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Jeff G.

This dissertation develops and applies an integrated framework for embedding flexibility in an engineered system architecture. Systems are constantly faced with unpredictability in the operational environment, threats from competing systems, obsolescence of technology, and general uncertainty in future system demands. Current systems engineering and risk management practices have focused almost exclusively on mitigating or preventing the negative consequences of uncertainty. This research recognizes that high uncertainty also presents an opportunity to design systems that can flexibly respond to changing requirements and capture additional value throughout the design life. There does not exist however a formalized approach to designing appropriately flexible systems. This research develops a three stage integrated flexibility framework based on the concept of architecture options embedded in the system design. Stage One defines an eight step systems engineering process to identify candidate architecture options. This process encapsulates the operational uncertainty though scenario development, traces new functional requirements to the affected design variables, and clusters the variables most sensitive to change. The resulting clusters can generate insight into the most promising regions in the architecture to embed flexibility in the form of architecture options. Stage Two develops a quantitative option valuation technique, grounded in real options theory, which is able to value embedded architecture options that exhibit variable expiration behavior. Stage Three proposes a portfolio optimization algorithm, for both discrete and continuous options, to select the optimal subset of architecture options, subject to budget and risk constraints. Finally, the feasibility, extensibility and limitations of the framework are assessed by its application to a reconnaissance satellite system development problem. Detailed technical data, performance models, and cost estimates were compiled for the Tactical Imaging Constellation Architecture Study and leveraged to complete a realistic proof-of-concept.

Biologically based modeling of multimedia, multipathway, multiroute population exposures to arsenic

PubMed Central

Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Yang, Yu-Ching; Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie G.; Mccurdy, Thomas; Özkaynak, Halûk

2011-01-01

This article presents an integrated, biologically based, source-to-dose assessment framework for modeling multimedia/multipathway/multiroute exposures to arsenic. Case studies demonstrating this framework are presented for three US counties (Hunderton County, NJ; Pima County, AZ; and Franklin County, OH), representing substantially different conditions of exposure. The approach taken utilizes the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies (MENTOR) in an implementation that incorporates and extends the approach pioneered by Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation (SHEDS), in conjunction with a number of available databases, including NATA, NHEXAS, CSFII, and CHAD, and extends modeling techniques that have been developed in recent years. Model results indicate that, in most cases, the food intake pathway is the dominant contributor to total exposure and dose to arsenic. Model predictions are evaluated qualitatively by comparing distributions of predicted total arsenic amounts in urine with those derived using biomarker measurements from the NHEXAS — Region V study: the population distributions of urinary total arsenic levels calculated through MENTOR and from the NHEXAS measurements are in general qualitative agreement. Observed differences are due to various factors, such as interindividual variation in arsenic metabolism in humans, that are not fully accounted for in the current model implementation but can be incorporated in the future, in the open framework of MENTOR. The present study demonstrates that integrated source-to-dose modeling for arsenic can not only provide estimates of the relative contributions of multipathway exposure routes to the total exposure estimates, but can also estimate internal target tissue doses for speciated organic and inorganic arsenic, which can eventually be used to improve evaluation of health risks associated with exposures to arsenic from multiple sources, routes, and pathways. PMID:18073786

Towards the review of the European Union Water Framework Directive: Recommendations for more efficient assessment and management of chemical contamination in European surface water resources.

PubMed

Brack, Werner; Dulio, Valeria; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Allan, Ian; Altenburger, Rolf; Brinkmann, Markus; Bunke, Dirk; Burgess, Robert M; Cousins, Ian; Escher, Beate I; Hernández, Félix J; Hewitt, L Mark; Hilscherová, Klára; Hollender, Juliane; Hollert, Henner; Kase, Robert; Klauer, Bernd; Lindim, Claudia; Herráez, David López; Miège, Cécil; Munthe, John; O'Toole, Simon; Posthuma, Leo; Rüdel, Heinz; Schäfer, Ralf B; Sengl, Manfred; Smedes, Foppe; van de Meent, Dik; van den Brink, Paul J; van Gils, Jos; van Wezel, Annemarie P; Vethaak, A Dick; Vermeirssen, Etienne; von der Ohe, Peter C; Vrana, Branislav

2017-01-15

Water is a vital resource for natural ecosystems and human life, and assuring a high quality of water and protecting it from chemical contamination is a major societal goal in the European Union. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its daughter directives are the major body of legislation for the protection and sustainable use of European freshwater resources. The practical implementation of the WFD with regard to chemical pollution has faced some challenges. In support of the upcoming WFD review in 2019 the research project SOLUTIONS and the European monitoring network NORMAN has analyzed these challenges, evaluated the state-of-the-art of the science and suggested possible solutions. We give 10 recommendations to improve monitoring and to strengthen comprehensive prioritization, to foster consistent assessment and to support solution-oriented management of surface waters. The integration of effect-based tools, the application of passive sampling for bioaccumulative chemicals and an integrated strategy for prioritization of contaminants, accounting for knowledge gaps, are seen as important approaches to advance monitoring. Including all relevant chemical contaminants in more holistic "chemical status" assessment, using effect-based trigger values to address priority mixtures of chemicals, to better consider historical burdens accumulated in sediments and to use models to fill data gaps are recommended for a consistent assessment of contamination. Solution-oriented management should apply a tiered approach in investigative monitoring to identify toxicity drivers, strengthen consistent legislative frameworks and apply solutions-oriented approaches that explore risk reduction scenarios before and along with risk assessment. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Framework programmable platform for the advanced software development workstation. Integration mechanism design document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayer, Richard J.; Blinn, Thomas M.; Mayer, Paula S. D.; Reddy, Uday; Ackley, Keith; Futrell, Mike

1991-01-01

The Framework Programmable Software Development Platform (FPP) is a project aimed at combining effective tool and data integration mechanisms with a model of the software development process in an intelligent integrated software development environment. Guided by this model, this system development framework will take advantage of an integrated operating environment to automate effectively the management of the software development process so that costly mistakes during the development phase can be eliminated.

Modelling determinants, impact, and space-time risk of age-specific mortality in rural South Africa: integrating methods to enhance policy relevance.

PubMed

Sartorius, Benn

2013-01-24

There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space-time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined. To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space-time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation. Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992-2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space-time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed. Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space-time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty. A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space-time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region.

An Afrocentric approach to building cultural relevance in social work research.

PubMed

Davis, Sarita K; Williams, Aisha D; Akinyela, Makungu

2010-01-01

Social work researchers who identify and define social problems run the risk of leaving their social fingerprints on such problems, as well as their favored solutions to them. As a result, the direction of the research agenda is driven by the focus of the research problem formulation, instead of the cultural relevance. The purpose of this article is to offer guiding principles for integrating cultural relevance into the social work research process. The authors offer definitions of cultural relevance, a rationale for using cultural relevance in social work research, a framework for constructing cultural relevance in the process of research problem formulation, and an example of how this framework applies within the context of HIV prevention education in the African American community.

An integrated new product development framework - an application on green and low-carbon products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chun-Yu; Lee, Amy H. I.; Kang, He-Yau

2015-03-01

Companies need to be innovative to survive in today's competitive market; thus, new product development (NPD) has become very important. This research constructs an integrated NPD framework for developing new products. In stage one, customer attributes (CAs) and engineering characteristics (ECs) for developing products are collected, and fuzzy interpretive structural modelling (FISM) is applied to understand the relationships among these critical factors. Based on quality function deployment (QFD), a house of quality is then built, and fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) is adopted to calculate the relative importance of ECs. In stage two, fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FFMEA) is applied to understand the potential failures of the ECs and to determine the importance of ECs with respect to risk control. In stage three, a goal programming (GP) model is constructed to consider the outcome from the FANP-QFD, FFMEA and other objectives, in order to select the most important ECs. Due to pollution and global warming, environmental protection has become an important topic. With both governments and consumers developing environmental consciousness, successful green and low-carbon NPD provides an important competitive advantage, enabling the survival or renewal of firms. The proposed framework is implemented in a panel manufacturing firm for designing a green and low-carbon product.

Connecting Relational Theory and the Systems Theory Framework: Individuals and Their Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Wendy

2007-01-01

The Systems Theory Framework (STF) facilitates the inclusion of relevant aspects of multiple existing theories within an integrated framework, wherein relevance and meaning is decided upon by each individual. Patton and McMahon emphasise that the application of the Systems Theory Framework in integrating theory and practice is located within the…

The Roles of Behavioral and Social Science Research in the Fight Against HIV/AIDS: A Functional Framework.

PubMed

Gaist, Paul; Stirratt, Michael J

2017-08-01

Landmark advances have been made in HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment. These include proof-of-concept and public health implementation of preexposure prophylaxis and "treatment as prevention" to reduce HIV transmission as well as definitive evidence of the clinical gain from early antiretroviral treatment initiation. Significant progress has been made in understanding and addressing the social contexts and behavioral factors that impact HIV prevention, care, and treatment interventions. These include facilitating uptake of testing and counseling, developing technology-based interventions that increase viral suppression, reducing HIV/AIDS-related stigma, and addressing other sociobehavioral and structural barriers to care and treatment. This evolving landscape provides an important juncture to assess current and future directions for HIV/AIDS behavioral and social science research (BSSR). We propose a functional framework for HIV/AIDS-related BSSR, highlighting 4 primary BSSR domains: (1) understanding vulnerable populations and contexts of risk ("Basic BSSR"); (2) improving behavioral and social factor approaches to risk reduction, prevention, and care ("Elemental BSSR"); (3) strengthening the design and outcomes of biomedically focused research in HIV/AIDS treatment and prevention ("Supportive BSSR"); and (4) contributing building blocks to integrated HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment approaches ("Integrative BSSR"). These domains and their resulting confluence at the highest level underscore how fundamental and essential BSSR is to current and future efforts to prevent, treat, and cure HIV/AIDS.

Organizational Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care: A Framework for Improvement.

PubMed

Evans, Jenna M; Grudniewicz, Agnes; Baker, G Ross; Wodchis, Walter P

2016-08-31

Interventions aimed at integrating care have become widespread in healthcare; however, there is significant variability in their success. Differences in organizational contexts and associated capabilities may be responsible for some of this variability. This study develops and validates a conceptual framework of organizational capabilities for integrating care, identifies which of these capabilities may be most important, and explores the mechanisms by which they influence integrated care efforts. The Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care (CCIC) Framework was developed through a literature review, and revised and validated through interviews with leaders and care providers engaged in integrated care networks in Ontario, Canada. Interviews involved open-ended questions and graphic elicitation. Quantitative content analysis was used to summarize the data. The CCIC Framework consists of eighteen organizational factors in three categories: Basic Structures, People and Values, and Key Processes. The three most important capabilities shaping the capacity of organizations to implement integrated care interventions include Leadership Approach, Clinician Engagement and Leadership, and Readiness for Change. The majority of hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities involved Readiness for Change and Partnering, emphasizing the complexity, interrelatedness and importance of these two factors to integrated care efforts. Organizational leaders can use the framework to determine readiness to integrate care, develop targeted change management strategies, and select appropriate partners with overlapping or complementary profiles on key capabilities. Researchers may use the results to test and refine the proposed framework, with a focus on the hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities and between organizational capabilities and performance outcomes.

HPVdb: a data mining system for knowledge discovery in human papillomavirus with applications in T cell immunology and vaccinology

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guang Lan; Riemer, Angelika B.; Keskin, Derin B.; Chitkushev, Lou; Reinherz, Ellis L.; Brusic, Vladimir

2014-01-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causes of many cancers, including cervical, anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile and oropharyngeal. To facilitate diagnosis, prognosis and characterization of these cancers, it is necessary to make full use of the immunological data on HPV available through publications, technical reports and databases. These data vary in granularity, quality and complexity. The extraction of knowledge from the vast amount of immunological data using data mining techniques remains a challenging task. To support integration of data and knowledge in virology and vaccinology, we developed a framework called KB-builder to streamline the development and deployment of web-accessible immunological knowledge systems. The framework consists of seven major functional modules, each facilitating a specific aspect of the knowledgebase construction process. Using KB-builder, we constructed the Human Papillomavirus T cell Antigen Database (HPVdb). It contains 2781 curated antigen entries of antigenic proteins derived from 18 genotypes of high-risk HPV and 18 genotypes of low-risk HPV. The HPVdb also catalogs 191 verified T cell epitopes and 45 verified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands. Primary amino acid sequences of HPV antigens were collected and annotated from the UniProtKB. T cell epitopes and HLA ligands were collected from data mining of scientific literature and databases. The data were subject to extensive quality control (redundancy elimination, error detection and vocabulary consolidation). A set of computational tools for an in-depth analysis, such as sequence comparison using BLAST search, multiple alignments of antigens, classification of HPV types based on cancer risk, T cell epitope/HLA ligand visualization, T cell epitope/HLA ligand conservation analysis and sequence variability analysis, has been integrated within the HPVdb. Predicted Class I and Class II HLA binding peptides for 15 common HLA alleles are included in this database as putative targets. HPVdb is a knowledge-based system that integrates curated data and information with tailored analysis tools to facilitate data mining for HPV vaccinology and immunology. To our best knowledge, HPVdb is a unique data source providing a comprehensive list of HPV antigens and peptides. Database URL: http://cvc.dfci.harvard.edu/hpv/ PMID:24705205

HPVdb: a data mining system for knowledge discovery in human papillomavirus with applications in T cell immunology and vaccinology.

PubMed

Zhang, Guang Lan; Riemer, Angelika B; Keskin, Derin B; Chitkushev, Lou; Reinherz, Ellis L; Brusic, Vladimir

2014-01-01

High-risk human papillomaviruses (HPVs) are the causes of many cancers, including cervical, anal, vulvar, vaginal, penile and oropharyngeal. To facilitate diagnosis, prognosis and characterization of these cancers, it is necessary to make full use of the immunological data on HPV available through publications, technical reports and databases. These data vary in granularity, quality and complexity. The extraction of knowledge from the vast amount of immunological data using data mining techniques remains a challenging task. To support integration of data and knowledge in virology and vaccinology, we developed a framework called KB-builder to streamline the development and deployment of web-accessible immunological knowledge systems. The framework consists of seven major functional modules, each facilitating a specific aspect of the knowledgebase construction process. Using KB-builder, we constructed the Human Papillomavirus T cell Antigen Database (HPVdb). It contains 2781 curated antigen entries of antigenic proteins derived from 18 genotypes of high-risk HPV and 18 genotypes of low-risk HPV. The HPVdb also catalogs 191 verified T cell epitopes and 45 verified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) ligands. Primary amino acid sequences of HPV antigens were collected and annotated from the UniProtKB. T cell epitopes and HLA ligands were collected from data mining of scientific literature and databases. The data were subject to extensive quality control (redundancy elimination, error detection and vocabulary consolidation). A set of computational tools for an in-depth analysis, such as sequence comparison using BLAST search, multiple alignments of antigens, classification of HPV types based on cancer risk, T cell epitope/HLA ligand visualization, T cell epitope/HLA ligand conservation analysis and sequence variability analysis, has been integrated within the HPVdb. Predicted Class I and Class II HLA binding peptides for 15 common HLA alleles are included in this database as putative targets. HPVdb is a knowledge-based system that integrates curated data and information with tailored analysis tools to facilitate data mining for HPV vaccinology and immunology. To our best knowledge, HPVdb is a unique data source providing a comprehensive list of HPV antigens and peptides. Database URL: http://cvc.dfci.harvard.edu/hpv/.

Synthetic biology regulation and governance: Lessons from TAPIC for the United States, European Union, and Singapore.

PubMed

Trump, Benjamin D

2017-11-01

Synthetic biology is an emerging technology with potential benefits to various fields, yet also contains potential risks to human and environmental health. The field remains in an emerging state with limited quantitative guidance and a small but growing population of international researchers that conduct work within this field. Given the uncertain nature of this technology, an adaptive and anticipatory governance framework may be necessary to balance the potential benefits that may accrue from the technology's continued research alongside a desire to reduce or eliminate potential risks that may arise. However, such developments must account for the unique political and institutional factors that form a government's risk culture - something that can facilitate or impede the development of adaptive synthetic biology governance moving forward. The TAPIC framework helps illustrate those factors that are essential to develop good governance for emerging technologies like synthetic biology. Specifically, an application of TAPIC to synthetic biology governance indicates that the factors of accountability, participation, and integrity must be bolstered to improve technology governance in governments like with the United States, European Union, and Singapore. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A cognitive perspective on health systems integration: results of a Canadian Delphi study.

PubMed

Evans, Jenna M; Baker, G Ross; Berta, Whitney; Barnsley, Jan

2014-05-19

Ongoing challenges to healthcare integration point toward the need to move beyond structural and process issues. While we know what needs to be done to achieve integrated care, there is little that informs us as to how. We need to understand how diverse organizations and professionals develop shared knowledge and beliefs - that is, we need to generate knowledge about normative integration. We present a cognitive perspective on integration, based on shared mental model theory, that may enhance our understanding and ability to measure and influence normative integration. The aim of this paper is to validate and improve the Mental Models of Integrated Care (MMIC) Framework, which outlines important knowledge and beliefs whose convergence or divergence across stakeholder groups may influence inter-professional and inter-organizational relations. We used a two-stage web-based modified Delphi process to test the MMIC Framework against expert opinion using a random sample of participants from Canada's National Symposium on Integrated Care. Respondents were asked to rate the framework's clarity, comprehensiveness, usefulness, and importance using seven-point ordinal scales. Spaces for open comments were provided. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the structured responses, while open comments were coded and categorized using thematic analysis. The Kruskall-Wallis test was used to examine cross-group agreement by level of integration experience, current workplace, and current role. In the first round, 90 individuals responded (52% response rate), representing a wide range of professional roles and organization types from across the continuum of care. In the second round, 68 individuals responded (75.6% response rate). The quantitative and qualitative feedback from experts was used to revise the framework. The re-named "Integration Mindsets Framework" consists of a Strategy Mental Model and a Relationships Mental Model, comprising a total of nineteen content areas. The Integration Mindsets Framework draws the attention of researchers and practitioners to how various stakeholders think about and conceptualize integration. A cognitive approach to understanding and measuring normative integration complements dominant cultural approaches and allows for more fine-grained analyses. The framework can be used by managers and leaders to facilitate the interpretation, planning, implementation, management and evaluation of integration initiatives.

An allometric approach to quantify the extinction vulnerability of birds and mammals.

PubMed

Hilbers, J P; Schipper, A M; Hendriks, A J; Verones, F; Pereira, H M; Huijbregts, M A J

2016-03-01

Methods to quantify the vulnerability of species to extinction are typically limited by the availability of species-specific input data pertaining to life-history characteristics and population dynamics. This lack of data hampers global biodiversity assessments and conservation planning. Here, we developed a new framework that systematically quantifies extinction risk based on allometric relationships between various wildlife demographic parameters and body size. These allometric relationships have a solid theoretical and ecological foundation. Extinction risk indicators included are (1) the probability of extinction, (2) the mean time to extinction, and (3) the critical patch size. We applied our framework to assess the global extinction vulnerability of terrestrial carnivorous and non-carnivorous birds and mammals. Irrespective of the indicator used, large-bodied species were found to be more vulnerable to extinction than their smaller counterparts. The patterns with body size were confirmed for all species groups by a comparison with IUCN data on the proportion of extant threatened species: the models correctly predicted a multimodal distribution with body size for carnivorous birds and a monotonic distribution for mammals and non-carnivorous birds. Carnivorous mammals were found to have higher extinction risks than non-carnivores, while birds were more prone to extinction than mammals. These results are explained by the allometric relationships, predicting the vulnerable species groups to have lower intrinsic population growth rates, smaller population sizes, lower carrying capacities, or larger dispersal distances, which, in turn, increase the importance of losses due to environmental stochastic effects and dispersal activities. Our study is the first to integrate population viability analysis and allometry into a novel, process-based framework that is able to quantify extinction risk of a large number of species without requiring data-intensive, species-specific information. The framework facilitates the estimation of extinction vulnerabilities of data-deficient species. It may be applied to forecast extinction vulnerability in response to a changing environment, by incorporating quantitative relationships between wildlife demographic parameters and environmental drivers like habitat alteration, climate change, or hunting.

Introductory guide to integrated ecological framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-10-01

This guide introduces the Integrated Ecological Framework (IEF) to Texas Department of Transportation : (TxDOT) engineers and planners. IEF is step-by-step approach to integrating ecological and : transportation planning with the goal of avoiding imp...

The use of biomonitoring data in exposure and human health risk assessment: benzene case study.

PubMed

Arnold, Scott M; Angerer, Juergen; Boogaard, Peter J; Hughes, Michael F; O'Lone, Raegan B; Robison, Steven H; Schnatter, A Robert

2013-02-01

Abstract A framework of "Common Criteria" (i.e. a series of questions) has been developed to inform the use and evaluation of biomonitoring data in the context of human exposure and risk assessment. The data-rich chemical benzene was selected for use in a case study to assess whether refinement of the Common Criteria framework was necessary, and to gain additional perspective on approaches for integrating biomonitoring data into a risk-based context. The available data for benzene satisfied most of the Common Criteria and allowed for a risk-based evaluation of the benzene biomonitoring data. In general, biomarker (blood benzene, urinary benzene and urinary S-phenylmercapturic acid) central tendency (i.e. mean, median and geometric mean) concentrations for non-smokers are at or below the predicted blood or urine concentrations that would correspond to exposure at the US Environmental Protection Agency reference concentration (30 µg/m(3)), but greater than blood or urine concentrations relating to the air concentration at the 1 × 10(-5) excess cancer risk (2.9 µg/m(3)). Smokers clearly have higher levels of benzene exposure, and biomarker levels of benzene for non-smokers are generally consistent with ambient air monitoring results. While some biomarkers of benzene are specific indicators of exposure, the interpretation of benzene biomonitoring levels in a health-risk context are complicated by issues associated with short half-lives and gaps in knowledge regarding the relationship between the biomarkers and subsequent toxic effects.

Developmental Care Rounds: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Support Developmentally Appropriate Care of Infants Born with Complex Congenital Heart Disease.

PubMed

Lisanti, Amy Jo; Cribben, Jeanne; Connock, Erin McManus; Lessen, Rachelle; Medoff-Cooper, Barbara

2016-03-01

Newborn infants with complex congenital heart disease are at risk for developmental delay. Developmental care practices benefit prematurely born infants in neonatal intensive care units. Cardiac intensive care units until recently had not integrated developmental care practices into their care framework. Interdisciplinary developmental care rounds in our center have helped in the promotion of developmentally supportive care for infants before and after cardiac surgery. This article discusses basic principles of developmental care, the role of each member of the interdisciplinary team on rounds, common developmental care practices integrated into care from rounds, and impacts to patients, families, and staff. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Building a Privacy, Ethics, and Data Access Framework for Real World Computerised Medical Record System Data: A Delphi Study. Contribution of the Primary Health Care Informatics Working Group.

PubMed

Liyanage, H; Liaw, S-T; Di Iorio, C T; Kuziemsky, C; Schreiber, R; Terry, A L; de Lusignan, S

2016-11-10

Privacy, ethics, and data access issues pose significant challenges to the timely delivery of health research. Whilst the fundamental drivers to ensure that data access is ethical and satisfies privacy requirements are similar, they are often dealt with in varying ways by different approval processes. To achieve a consensus across an international panel of health care and informatics professionals on an integrated set of privacy and ethics principles that could accelerate health data access in data-driven health research projects. A three-round consensus development process was used. In round one, we developed a baseline framework for privacy, ethics, and data access based on a review of existing literature in the health, informatics, and policy domains. This was further developed using a two-round Delphi consensus building process involving 20 experts who were members of the International Medical Informatics Association (IMIA) and European Federation of Medical Informatics (EFMI) Primary Health Care Informatics Working Groups. To achieve consensus we required an extended Delphi process. The first round involved feedback on and development of the baseline framework. This consisted of four components: (1) ethical principles, (2) ethical guidance questions, (3) privacy and data access principles, and (4) privacy and data access guidance questions. Round two developed consensus in key areas of the revised framework, allowing the building of a newly, more detailed and descriptive framework. In the final round panel experts expressed their opinions, either as agreements or disagreements, on the ethics and privacy statements of the framework finding some of the previous round disagreements to be surprising in view of established ethical principles. This study develops a framework for an integrated approach to ethics and privacy. Privacy breech risk should not be considered in isolation but instead balanced by potential ethical benefit.

A System of Systems (SoS) Approach to Sustainable Energy Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madani, Kaveh; Hadian, Saeed

2015-04-01

The general policy of mandating fossil fuel replacement with "green" energies may not be as effective and environmental-friendly as perceived, due to the secondary impacts of renewable energies on different natural resources. An integrated systems analysis framework is essential to developing sustainable energy supply systems with minimal unintended impacts on valuable natural resources such as water, climate, and ecosystem. This presentation discusses how a system of systems (SoS) framework can be developed to quantitatively evaluate the desirability of different energy supply alternatives with respect to different sustainability criteria under uncertainty. Relative Aggregate Footprint (RAF) scores of a range of renewable and nonrenewable energy alternatives are determined using their performance values under four sustainability criteria, namely carbon footprint, water footprint, land footprint, and cost of energy production. Our results suggest that despite their lower emissions, some renewable energy sources are less promising than non-renewable energy sources from a SoS perspective that considers the trade-offs between carbon footprint of energies and their effects on water, ecosystem, and economic resources. A new framework based on the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is also proposed for analyzing the overall sustainability of different energy mixes for different risk of return levels with respect to the trade-offs involved. It is discussed how the proposed finance-based sustainability evaluation method can help policy makers maximize the energy portfolio's expected sustainability for a given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected sustainability level, by revising the energy mix.

Intertwining Risk Insights and Design Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornford, Steven L.; Feather, Martin S.; Jenkins, J. Steven

2006-01-01

The state of systems engineering is such that a form of early and continued use of risk assessments is conducted (as evidenced by NASA's adoption and use of the 'Continuous Risk Management' paradigm developed by SEI). ... However, these practices fall short of theideal: (1) Integration between risk assessment techniques and other systems engineering tools is weak. (2) Risk assessment techniques and the insights they yield are only informally coupled to design decisions. (3) Individual riskassessment techniques lack the mix of breadth, fidelity and agility required to span the gamut of the design space. In this paper we present an approach that addresses these shortcomings. The hallmark of our approach is a simple representation comprising objectives (what the system is to do), risks (whose occurrence would detract from attainment of objectives) and activities (a.k.a. 'mitigations') that, if performed, will decrease those risks. These are linked to indicate by how much a risk would detract from attainment of an objective, and by how much an activity would reduce a risk. The simplicity of our representational framework gives it the breadth to encompass the gamut of the design space concerns, the agility to be utilized in even the earliest phases of designs, and the capability to connect to system engineering models and higher-fidelity risk tools. It is through this integration that we address the shortcomings listed above, and so achieve the intertwining between risk insights and design decisions needed to guide systems engineering towards superior final designs while avoiding costly rework to achieve them. The paper will use an example, constructed to be representative of space mission design, to illustrate our approach.

Development of a Risk-Based Comparison Methodology of Carbon Capture Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal

2014-06-01

Given the varying degrees of maturity among existing carbon capture (CC) technology alternatives, an understanding of the inherent technical and financial risk and uncertainty associated with these competing technologies is requisite to the success of carbon capture as a viable solution to the greenhouse gas emission challenge. The availability of tools and capabilities to conduct rigorous, risk–based technology comparisons is thus highly desirable for directing valuable resources toward the technology option(s) with a high return on investment, superior carbon capture performance, and minimum risk. To address this research need, we introduce a novel risk-based technology comparison method supported by anmore » integrated multi-domain risk model set to estimate risks related to technological maturity, technical performance, and profitability. Through a comparison between solid sorbent and liquid solvent systems, we illustrate the feasibility of estimating risk and quantifying uncertainty in a single domain (modular analytical capability) as well as across multiple risk dimensions (coupled analytical capability) for comparison. This method brings technological maturity and performance to bear on profitability projections, and carries risk and uncertainty modeling across domains via inter-model sharing of parameters, distributions, and input/output. The integration of the models facilitates multidimensional technology comparisons within a common probabilistic risk analysis framework. This approach and model set can equip potential technology adopters with the necessary computational capabilities to make risk-informed decisions about CC technology investment. The method and modeling effort can also be extended to other industries where robust tools and analytical capabilities are currently lacking for evaluating nascent technologies.« less

Integrative behavioral ecotoxicology: bringing together fields to establish new insight to behavioral ecology, toxicology, and conservation

PubMed Central

Peterson, Elizabeth K.; Buchwalter, David B.; Kerby, Jacob L.; LeFauve, Matthew K.; Varian-Ramos, Claire W.

2017-01-01

Abstract The fields of behavioral ecology, conservation science, and environmental toxicology individually aim to protect and manage the conservation of wildlife in response to anthropogenic stressors, including widespread anthropogenic pollution. Although great emphasis in the field of toxicology has been placed on understanding how single pollutants affect survival, a comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach that includes behavioral ecology is essential to address how anthropogenic compounds are a risk for the survival of species and populations in an increasingly polluted world. We provide an integrative framework for behavioral ecotoxicology using Tinbergen’s four postulates (causation and mechanism, development and ontogeny, function and fitness, and evolutionary history and phylogenetic patterns). The aims of this review are: 1) to promote an integrative view and re-define the field of integrative behavioral ecotoxicology; 2) to demonstrate how studying ecotoxicology can promote behavior research; and 3) to identify areas of behavioral ecotoxicology that require further attention to promote the integration and growth of the field. PMID:29491976

Integrating funds for health and social care: an evidence review.

PubMed

Mason, Anne; Goddard, Maria; Weatherly, Helen; Chalkley, Martin

2015-07-01

Integrated funds for health and social care are one possible way of improving care for people with complex care requirements. If integrated funds facilitate coordinated care, this could support improvements in patient experience, and health and social care outcomes, reduce avoidable hospital admissions and delayed discharges, and so reduce costs. In this article, we examine whether this potential has been realized in practice. We propose a framework based on agency theory for understanding the role that integrated funding can play in promoting coordinated care, and review the evidence to see whether the expected effects are realized in practice. We searched eight electronic databases and relevant websites, and checked reference lists of reviews and empirical studies. We extracted data on the types of funding integration used by schemes, their benefits and costs (including unintended effects), and the barriers to implementation. We interpreted our findings with reference to our framework. The review included 38 schemes from eight countries. Most of the randomized evidence came from Australia, with nonrandomized comparative evidence available from Australia, Canada, England, Sweden and the US. None of the comparative evidence isolated the effect of integrated funding; instead, studies assessed the effects of 'integrated financing plus integrated care' (i.e. 'integration') relative to usual care. Most schemes (24/38) assessed health outcomes, of which over half found no significant impact on health. The impact of integration on secondary care costs or use was assessed in 34 schemes. In 11 schemes, integration had no significant effect on secondary care costs or utilisation. Only three schemes reported significantly lower secondary care use compared with usual care. In the remaining 19 schemes, the evidence was mixed or unclear. Some schemes achieved short-term reductions in delayed discharges, but there was anecdotal evidence of unintended consequences such as premature hospital discharge and heightened risk of readmission. No scheme achieved a sustained reduction in hospital use. The primary barrier was the difficulty of implementing financial integration, despite the existence of statutory and regulatory support. Even where funds were successfully pooled, budget holders' control over access to services remained limited. Barriers in the form of differences in performance frameworks, priorities and governance were prominent amongst the UK schemes, whereas difficulties in linking different information systems were more widespread. Despite these barriers, many schemes - including those that failed to improve health or reduce costs - reported that access to care had improved. Some of these schemes revealed substantial levels of unmet need and so total costs increased. It is often assumed in policy that integrating funding will promote integrated care, and lead to better health outcomes and lower costs. Both our agency theory-based framework and the evidence indicate that the link is likely to be weak. Integrated care may uncover unmet need. Resolving this can benefit both individuals and society, but total care costs are likely to rise. Provided that integration delivers improvements in quality of life, even with additional costs, it may, nonetheless, offer value for money. © The Author(s) 2015.

Navigating Complex Trade-Offs in Conservation and Development: An Integrative Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirsch, Paul D.; Brosius, J. Peter

2013-01-01

We present a framework that makes space for multiple perspectives and ways of thinking about complex trade-off problems in conservation and development. At the core of the framework are three "integrative lenses" designed to facilitate lines of inquiry according to three unique ways of perceiving complexity. The aim of the framework is…

Integrated Extravehicular Activity Human Research Plan: 2017

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abercromby, Andrew

2017-01-01

Multiple organizations within NASA as well as industry and academia fund and participate in research related to extravehicular activity (EVA). In October 2015, representatives of the EVA Office, the Crew and Thermal Systems Division (CTSD), and the Human Research Program (HRP) at NASA Johnson Space Center agreed on a formal framework to improve multi-year coordination and collaboration in EVA research. At the core of the framework is an Integrated EVA Human Research Plan and a process by which it will be annually reviewed and updated. The over-arching objective of the collaborative framework is to conduct multi-disciplinary cost-effective research that will enable humans to perform EVAs safely, effectively, comfortably, and efficiently, as needed to enable and enhance human space exploration missions. Research activities must be defined, prioritized, planned and executed to comprehensively address the right questions, avoid duplication, leverage other complementary activities where possible, and ultimately provide actionable evidence-based results in time to inform subsequent tests, developments and/or research activities. Representation of all appropriate stakeholders in the definition, prioritization, planning and execution of research activities is essential to accomplishing the over-arching objective. A formal review of the Integrated EVA Human Research Plan will be conducted annually. Coordination with stakeholders outside of the EVA Office, CTSD, and HRP is already in effect on a study-by-study basis; closer coordination on multi-year planning with other EVA stakeholders including academia is being actively pursued. Details of the preliminary Integrated EVA Human Research Plan are presented including description of ongoing and planned research activities in the areas of: physiological and performance capabilities; suit design parameters; EVA human health and performance modeling; EVA tasks and concepts of operations; EVA informatics; human-suit sensors; suit sizing and fit; and EVA injury risk and mitigation. This paper represents the 2017 update to the Integrated EVA Human Research Plan.

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE PAGES

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; ...

2016-01-13

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

A comparative ecological risk assessment of Orimulsion and Fuel Oil No. 6 in the coastal marine environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harwell, M.; Ault, J.; Gentile, J.

1995-12-31

The conduct of comparative ecological risk assessments (CERA) resulting from the release of anthropogenic stressors into coastal marine environments requires theoretical and methodological innovations to integrate contaminant exposure with populations at risk over time and space scales. Consequently, predicted risks must be scaled to allow comparisons of relative ecological impacts in three physical dimensions plus time. This study was designed to compare the risks from hypothetical spills of Orimulsion and Fuel Oil No. 6 into the Tampa Bay ecosystem. The CERA framework used in this study integrates numerical hydrodynamic and transport-and-fate, toxicological, and biological models with extensive spatially explicit databasesmore » that describe the distributions of critical species and habitats. The presentation of the comparative ecological risks is facilitated by visualization and GIS techniques to allow realistic comparisons of toxicant exposures and their co-occurrence with key biological resources over time and across the seascape. A scaling methodology is presented that uses toxicological data as scalars for graphically representing the ecological effects associated with exposure levels for each scenario simulation. The CERA model serves as an interactive tool for assessing the relative ecological consequences of a range of potential exposure scenarios and for forecasting the longer-term productivity of critical biological resources and habitats that are key to ecosystem structure and function.« less

Quantifying an Integral Ecology Framework: A Case Study of the Riverina, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheeler, Sarah A.; Haensch, Juliane; Edwards, Jane; Schirmer, Jackie; Zuo, Alec

2018-02-01

Communities in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin face the challenge of trying to achieve social, economic, and environmental sustainability; but experience entrenched conflict about the best way to achieve a sustainable future, especially for small rural communities. Integral ecology is a philosophical concept that seeks to address community, economic, social, and environmental sustainability simultaneously. Its inclusive processes are designed to reduce stakeholder conflict. However, to date the application of the integral ecology concept has been largely qualitative in nature. This study developed a quantitative integral ecology framework, and applied this framework to a case study of the Riverina, in the Murray-Darling Basin. Seventy-seven community-focused initiatives were assessed, ranked, and quantified. The majority of the community-focused ranked initiatives did not exhibit all aspects of integral ecology. Initiatives typically prioritized either (1) economic and community development or (2) environmental health; rarely both together. The integral ecology framework developed here enables recommendations on future community initiatives and may provide a pathway for community leaders and other policy-makers to more readily apply integral ecology objectives. Further research refining the framework's operationalization, application and implementation to a wider-scale may enhance communities' capacity to develop and grow sustainably.

CLAss-Specific Subspace Kernel Representations and Adaptive Margin Slack Minimization for Large Scale Classification.

PubMed

Yu, Yinan; Diamantaras, Konstantinos I; McKelvey, Tomas; Kung, Sun-Yuan

2018-02-01

In kernel-based classification models, given limited computational power and storage capacity, operations over the full kernel matrix becomes prohibitive. In this paper, we propose a new supervised learning framework using kernel models for sequential data processing. The framework is based on two components that both aim at enhancing the classification capability with a subset selection scheme. The first part is a subspace projection technique in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space using a CLAss-specific Subspace Kernel representation for kernel approximation. In the second part, we propose a novel structural risk minimization algorithm called the adaptive margin slack minimization to iteratively improve the classification accuracy by an adaptive data selection. We motivate each part separately, and then integrate them into learning frameworks for large scale data. We propose two such frameworks: the memory efficient sequential processing for sequential data processing and the parallelized sequential processing for distributed computing with sequential data acquisition. We test our methods on several benchmark data sets and compared with the state-of-the-art techniques to verify the validity of the proposed techniques.

Towards a Multi-Resolution Model of Seismic Risk in Central Asia. Challenge and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, M.; Wieland, M.; Bindi, D.; Parolai, S.

2011-12-01

Assessing seismic risk, defined as the probability of occurrence of economical and social losses as consequence of an earthquake, both at regional and at local scale is a challenging, multi-disciplinary task. In order to provide a reliable estimate, diverse information must be gathered by seismologists, geologists, engineers and civil authorities, and carefully integrated keeping into account the different levels of uncertainty. The research towards an integrated methodology, able to seamlessly describe seismic risk at different spatial scales is challenging, but discloses new application perspectives, particularly in those countries which suffer from a relevant seismic hazard but do not have resources for a standard assessment. Central Asian countries in particular, which exhibit one of the highest seismic hazard in the world, are experiencing a steady demographic growth, often accompanied by informal settlement and urban sprawling. A reliable evaluation of how these factors affect the seismic risk, together with a realistic assessment of the assets exposed to seismic hazard and their structural vulnerability is of particular importance, in order to undertake proper mitigation actions and to promptly and efficiently react to a catastrophic event. New strategies are needed to efficiently cope with systematic lack of information and uncertainties. An original approach is presented to assess seismic risk based on integration of information coming from remote-sensing and ground-based panoramic imaging, in situ measurements, expert knowledge and already available data. Efficient sampling strategies based on freely available medium-resolution multi-spectral satellite images are adopted to optimize data collection and validation, in a multi-scale approach. Panoramic imaging is also considered as a valuable ground-based visual data collection technique, suitable both for manual and automatic analysis. A full-probabilistic framework based on Bayes Network is proposed to integrate available information taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. An improved risk model for the capital of Kyrgyz Republic, Biskek, has been developed following this approach and tested based on different earthquake scenarios. Preliminary results will be presented and discussed.

Organizational Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care: A Framework for Improvement

PubMed Central

Grudniewicz, Agnes; Baker, G. Ross; Wodchis, Walter P.

2016-01-01

Background: Interventions aimed at integrating care have become widespread in healthcare; however, there is significant variability in their success. Differences in organizational contexts and associated capabilities may be responsible for some of this variability. Purpose: This study develops and validates a conceptual framework of organizational capabilities for integrating care, identifies which of these capabilities may be most important, and explores the mechanisms by which they influence integrated care efforts. Methods: The Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care (CCIC) Framework was developed through a literature review, and revised and validated through interviews with leaders and care providers engaged in integrated care networks in Ontario, Canada. Interviews involved open-ended questions and graphic elicitation. Quantitative content analysis was used to summarize the data. Results: The CCIC Framework consists of eighteen organizational factors in three categories: Basic Structures, People and Values, and Key Processes. The three most important capabilities shaping the capacity of organizations to implement integrated care interventions include Leadership Approach, Clinician Engagement and Leadership, and Readiness for Change. The majority of hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities involved Readiness for Change and Partnering, emphasizing the complexity, interrelatedness and importance of these two factors to integrated care efforts. Conclusions: Organizational leaders can use the framework to determine readiness to integrate care, develop targeted change management strategies, and select appropriate partners with overlapping or complementary profiles on key capabilities. Researchers may use the results to test and refine the proposed framework, with a focus on the hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities and between organizational capabilities and performance outcomes. PMID:28413366

Framework for Assessing Health Risk of Environmental Exposure to Children (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

The draft document, Framework For Assessing Health Risks of Environmental Exposure to Children, can serve as a resource on children's health risk assessment and it addresses the need to provide a comprehensive and consistent framework for considering children in risk asses...

Symposium on Integrating the Science of Environmental Justice into Decision-Making at the Environmental Protection Agency: An Overview

PubMed Central

Payne-Sturges, Devon; Garcia, Lisa; Lee, Charles; Zenick, Hal; Grevatt, Peter; Sanders, William H.; Case, Heather; Dankwa-Mullan, Irene

2011-01-01

In March 2010, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collaborated with government and nongovernmental organizations to host a groundbreaking symposium, “Strengthening Environmental Justice Research and Decision Making: A Symposium on the Science of Disproportionate Environmental Health Impacts.” The symposium provided a forum for discourse on the state of scientific knowledge about factors identified by EPA that may contribute to higher burdens of environmental exposure or risk in racial/ethnic minorities and low-income populations. Also featured were discussions on how environmental justice considerations may be integrated into EPA's analytical and decision-making frameworks and on research needs for advancing the integration of environmental justice into environmental policymaking. We summarize key discussions and conclusions from the symposium and briefly introduce the articles in this issue. PMID:22028456

Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides – Health Criteria final assessment. This report represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of the most policy-relevant science and will ultimately provide the scientific bases for EPA’s decision regarding whether the current standard for oxides of sulfur (SO2) sufficiently protects public health. The Integrated Plan for Review of the Primary NAAQS for SOx U.S. 2: EPA (2007) identifies key policy-relevant questions that provide a framework for this review of the scientific evidence. These questions frame the entire review of the NAAQS, and thus are informed by both science and policy considerations. The ISA organizes and presents the scientific evidence such that, when considered along with findings from risk analyses and policy considerations, will help the EPA address these questions in completing the NAAQS review.

Integrating funds for health and social care: an evidence review

PubMed Central

Goddard, Maria; Weatherly, Helen; Chalkley, Martin

2015-01-01

Objectives Integrated funds for health and social care are one possible way of improving care for people with complex care requirements. If integrated funds facilitate coordinated care, this could support improvements in patient experience, and health and social care outcomes, reduce avoidable hospital admissions and delayed discharges, and so reduce costs. In this article, we examine whether this potential has been realized in practice. Methods We propose a framework based on agency theory for understanding the role that integrated funding can play in promoting coordinated care, and review the evidence to see whether the expected effects are realized in practice. We searched eight electronic databases and relevant websites, and checked reference lists of reviews and empirical studies. We extracted data on the types of funding integration used by schemes, their benefits and costs (including unintended effects), and the barriers to implementation. We interpreted our findings with reference to our framework. Results The review included 38 schemes from eight countries. Most of the randomized evidence came from Australia, with nonrandomized comparative evidence available from Australia, Canada, England, Sweden and the US. None of the comparative evidence isolated the effect of integrated funding; instead, studies assessed the effects of ‘integrated financing plus integrated care’ (i.e. ‘integration’) relative to usual care. Most schemes (24/38) assessed health outcomes, of which over half found no significant impact on health. The impact of integration on secondary care costs or use was assessed in 34 schemes. In 11 schemes, integration had no significant effect on secondary care costs or utilisation. Only three schemes reported significantly lower secondary care use compared with usual care. In the remaining 19 schemes, the evidence was mixed or unclear. Some schemes achieved short-term reductions in delayed discharges, but there was anecdotal evidence of unintended consequences such as premature hospital discharge and heightened risk of readmission. No scheme achieved a sustained reduction in hospital use. The primary barrier was the difficulty of implementing financial integration, despite the existence of statutory and regulatory support. Even where funds were successfully pooled, budget holders’ control over access to services remained limited. Barriers in the form of differences in performance frameworks, priorities and governance were prominent amongst the UK schemes, whereas difficulties in linking different information systems were more widespread. Despite these barriers, many schemes – including those that failed to improve health or reduce costs – reported that access to care had improved. Some of these schemes revealed substantial levels of unmet need and so total costs increased. Conclusions It is often assumed in policy that integrating funding will promote integrated care, and lead to better health outcomes and lower costs. Both our agency theory-based framework and the evidence indicate that the link is likely to be weak. Integrated care may uncover unmet need. Resolving this can benefit both individuals and society, but total care costs are likely to rise. Provided that integration delivers improvements in quality of life, even with additional costs, it may, nonetheless, offer value for money. PMID:25595287

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Minh; Onishi, Tsubasa; Carey, James William

In this report, we describe risk assessment work done using the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) applied to CO 2 storage at Kevin Dome, Montana. Geologic CO 2 sequestration in saline aquifers poses certain risks including CO 2/brine leakage through wells or non-sealing faults into groundwater or to the land surface. These risks are difficult to quantify due to data availability and uncertainty. One solution is to explore the consequences of these limitations by running large numbers of numerical simulations on the primary CO2 injection reservoir, shallow reservoirs/aquifers, faults, and wells to assess leakage risks and uncertainties. However, a largemore » number of full-physics simulations is usually too computationally expensive. The NRAP integrated assessment model (NRAP-IAM) uses reduced order models (ROMs) developed from full-physics simulations to address this issue. A powerful stochastic framework allows NRAPIAM to explore complex interactions among many uncertain variables and evaluate the likely performance of potential sequestration sites.« less

A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

2015-06-01

In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Integrating Sediment Connectivity into Water Resources Management Trough a Graph Theoretic, Stochastic Modeling Framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J. P.; Castelletti, A.; Bizzi, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding sediment transport processes at the river basin scale, their temporal spectra and spatial patterns is key to identify and minimize morphologic risks associated to channel adjustments processes. This work contributes a stochastic framework for modeling bed-load connectivity based on recent advances in the field (e.g., Bizzi & Lerner, 2013; Czubas & Foufoulas-Georgiu, 2014). It presents river managers with novel indicators from reach scale vulnerability to channel adjustment in large river networks with sparse hydrologic and sediment observations. The framework comprises three steps. First, based on a distributed hydrological model and remotely sensed information, the framework identifies a representative grain size class for each reach. Second, sediment residence time distributions are calculated for each reach in a Monte-Carlo approach applying standard sediment transport equations driven by local hydraulic conditions. Third, a network analysis defines the up- and downstream connectivity for various travel times resulting in characteristic up/downstream connectivity signatures for each reach. Channel vulnerability indicators quantify the imbalance between up/downstream connectivity for each travel time domain, representing process dependent latency of morphologic response. Last, based on the stochastic core of the model, a sensitivity analysis identifies drivers of change and major sources of uncertainty in order to target key detrimental processes and to guide effective gathering of additional data. The application, limitation and integration into a decision analytic framework is demonstrated for a major part of the Red River Basin in Northern Vietnam (179.000 km2). Here, a plethora of anthropic alterations ranging from large reservoir construction to land-use changes results in major downstream deterioration and calls for deriving concerted sediment management strategies to mitigate current and limit future morphologic alterations.

Four (Algorithms) in One (Bag): An Integrative Framework of Knowledge for Teaching the Standard Algorithms of the Basic Arithmetic Operations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raveh, Ira; Koichu, Boris; Peled, Irit; Zaslavsky, Orit

2016-01-01

In this article we present an integrative framework of knowledge for teaching the standard algorithms of the four basic arithmetic operations. The framework is based on a mathematical analysis of the algorithms, a connectionist perspective on teaching mathematics and an analogy with previous frameworks of knowledge for teaching arithmetic…

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, Harrison B.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2016-09-01

A considerable fraction of urban water supply capacity serves primarily as a hedge against drought. Water utilities can reduce their dependence on firm capacity and forestall the development of new supplies using short-term drought management actions, such as conservation and transfers. Nevertheless, new supplies will often be needed, especially as demands rise due to population growth and economic development. Planning decisions regarding when and how to integrate new supply projects are fundamentally shaped by the way in which short-term adaptive drought management strategies are employed. To date, the challenges posed by long-term infrastructure sequencing and adaptive short-term drought management are treated independently, neglecting important feedbacks between planning and management actions. This work contributes a risk-based framework that uses continuously updating risk-of-failure (ROF) triggers to capture the feedbacks between short-term drought management actions (e.g., conservation and water transfers) and the selection and sequencing of a set of regional supply infrastructure options over the long term. Probabilistic regional water supply pathways are discovered for four water utilities in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina. Furthermore, this study distinguishes the status-quo planning path of independent action (encompassing utility-specific conservation and new supply infrastructure only) from two cooperative formulations: "weak" cooperation, which combines utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers, and "strong" cooperation, which also includes jointly developed regional infrastructure to support transfers. Results suggest that strong cooperation aids utilities in meeting their individual objectives at substantially lower costs and with less overall development. These benefits demonstrate how an adaptive, rule-based decision framework can coordinate integrated solutions that would not be identified using more traditional optimization methods.

Useful and Usable Climate Science: Frameworks for Bridging the Social and Physical domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buja, L.

2016-12-01

Society is transforming the Earth's system in unprecedented ways, often with significant variations across space and time. In turn, the impacts of climate change on the human system vary dramatically due to differences in cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and physical processes at the local level. The Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado addresses societal vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change through the development of frameworks and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability, and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional and global scales. CSAP relies heavily on GIS-based scientific data and knowledge systems to bridge social and physical science approaches in its five focus areas: Governance of inter-linked natural and managed resource systems. The role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change Weather, climate and global human health, GIS-based science data & knowledge systems. Regional Climate Science and Services for Adaptation Advanced methodologies and frameworks for assessing current and future risks to environmental hazards through the integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data are presented in the context of recent national and international projects on climate change and food/water security, urban carbon emissions, metropolitan extreme heat and global health. In addition, innovative CSAP international capacity building programs teaching interdisciplinary approaches for using geospatial technologies to integrate multi-scale spatial information of weather, climate change into important sectors such as disaster reduction, agriculture, tourism and society for decision-making are discussed.

Measuring and improving patient safety through health information technology: The Health IT Safety Framework.

PubMed

Singh, Hardeep; Sittig, Dean F

2016-04-01

Health information technology (health IT) has potential to improve patient safety but its implementation and use has led to unintended consequences and new safety concerns. A key challenge to improving safety in health IT-enabled healthcare systems is to develop valid, feasible strategies to measure safety concerns at the intersection of health IT and patient safety. In response to the fundamental conceptual and methodological gaps related to both defining and measuring health IT-related patient safety, we propose a new framework, the Health IT Safety (HITS) measurement framework, to provide a conceptual foundation for health IT-related patient safety measurement, monitoring, and improvement. The HITS framework follows both Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) and sociotechnical approaches and calls for new measures and measurement activities to address safety concerns in three related domains: 1) concerns that are unique and specific to technology (e.g., to address unsafe health IT related to unavailable or malfunctioning hardware or software); 2) concerns created by the failure to use health IT appropriately or by misuse of health IT (e.g. to reduce nuisance alerts in the electronic health record (EHR)), and 3) the use of health IT to monitor risks, health care processes and outcomes and identify potential safety concerns before they can harm patients (e.g. use EHR-based algorithms to identify patients at risk for medication errors or care delays). The framework proposes to integrate both retrospective and prospective measurement of HIT safety with an organization's existing clinical risk management and safety programs. It aims to facilitate organizational learning, comprehensive 360 degree assessment of HIT safety that includes vendor involvement, refinement of measurement tools and strategies, and shared responsibility to identify problems and implement solutions. A long term framework goal is to enable rigorous measurement that helps achieve the safety benefits of health IT in real-world clinical settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Diabetes prevention among American Indians: the role of self-efficacy, risk perception, numeracy and cultural identity.

PubMed

Simonds, Vanessa W; Omidpanah, Adam; Buchwald, Dedra

2017-10-02

According to the Risk Perception Attitude (RPA) framework, classifying people according to their perceptions of disease risk and their self-efficacy beliefs allows us to predict their likelihood for engaging in preventive behaviors. Health interventions can then be targeted according to RPA group. We applied the framework to type 2 diabetes prevention behaviors among American Indians and expanded it to include culture and numeracy. Using a cross-sectional study design, we surveyed a sample of Northern Plains American Indians in a reservation community setting on self-reported perceptions of diabetes risk, objective diabetes risk, self-efficacy, engagement in healthy behaviors, knowledge of diabetes risk factors, and covariates including demographics, numeracy, and cultural identity. We used the RPA framework to classify participants into four groups based on their perceptions of risk and self-efficacy. Analyses of variance and covariance estimated inter-group differences in behaviors associated with type 2 diabetes prevention. Among 128 participants, our only finding consistent with the RPA framework was that self-efficacy and risk perception predicted knowledge about diabetes risk factors. We found limited evidence for the influence of cultural identity within the RPA framework. Overall, participants had lower numeracy skills which tended to be associated with inaccurate perceptions of higher levels of risk. The theoretical framework may benefit from inclusion of further contextual factors that influence these behaviors. Attention to numeracy skills stands out in our study as an important influence on the RPA framework, highlighting the importance of attending to numeracy when targeting and tailoring risk information to participants segmented by the RPA framework.

A science of integration: frameworks, processes, and products in a place-based, integrative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kliskey, Andrew; Alessa, Lilian; Wandersee, Sarah; Williams, Paula; Trammell, Jamie; Powell, Jim; Grunblatt, Jess; Wipfli, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Integrative research is increasingly a priority within the scientific community and is a central goal for the evolving field of sustainability science. While it is conceptually attractive, its successful implementation has been challenging and recent work suggests that the move towards interdisciplinarity and transdisciplinarity in sustainability science is being only partially realized. To address this from the perspective of social-ecological systems (SES) research, we examine the process of conducting a science of integration within the Southcentral Alaska Test Case (SCTC) of Alaska-EPSCoR as a test-bed for this approach. The SCTC is part of a large, 5 year, interdisciplinary study investigating changing environments and adaptations to those changes in Alaska. In this paper, we review progress toward a science of integration and present our efforts to confront the practical issues of applying proposed integration frameworks. We: (1) define our integration framework; (2) describe the collaborative processes, including the co-development of science through stakeholder engagement and partnerships; and (3) illustrate potential products of integrative, social-ecological systems research. The approaches we use can also be applied outside of this particular framework. We highlight challenges and propose improvements for integration in sustainability science by addressing the need for common frameworks and improved contextual understanding. These insights may be useful for capacity-building for interdisciplinary projects that address complex real-world social and environmental problems.

Effectiveness of Teamwork in an Integrated Care Setting for Patients with COPD: Development and Testing of a Self-Evaluation Instrument for Interprofessional Teams.

PubMed

Van Dijk-de Vries, Anneke N; Duimel-Peeters, Inge G P; Muris, Jean W; Wesseling, Geertjan J; Beusmans, George H M I; Vrijhoef, Hubertus J M

2016-04-08

Teamwork between healthcare providers is conditional for the delivery of integrated care. This study aimed to assess the usefulness of the conceptual framework Integrated Team Effectiveness Model for developing and testing of the Integrated Team Effectiveness Instrument. Focus groups with healthcare providers in an integrated care setting for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were conducted to examine the recognisability of the conceptual framework and to explore critical success factors for collaborative COPD practice out of this framework. The resulting items were transposed into a pilot instrument. This was reviewed by expert opinion and completed 153 times by healthcare providers. The underlying structure and internal consistency of the instrument were verified by factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha. The conceptual framework turned out to be comprehensible for discussing teamwork effectiveness. The pilot instrument measures 25 relevant aspects of teamwork in integrated COPD care. Factor analysis suggested three reliable components: teamwork effectiveness, team processes and team psychosocial traits (Cronbach's alpha between 0.76 and 0.81). The conceptual framework Integrated Team Effectiveness Model is relevant in developing a practical full-spectrum instrument to facilitate discussing teamwork effectiveness. The Integrated Team Effectiveness Instrument provides a well-founded basis to self-evaluate teamwork effectiveness in integrated COPD care by healthcare providers. Recommendations are provided for the improvement of the instrument.

Considering Tangible Benefit for Interdependent Donors: Extending a Risk-Benefit Framework in Donor Selection.

PubMed

Van Pilsum Rasmussen, S E; Henderson, M L; Kahn, J; Segev, D

2017-10-01

From its infancy, live donor transplantation has operated within a framework of acceptable risk to donors. Such a framework presumes that risks of living donation are experienced by the donor while all benefits are realized by the recipient, creating an inequitable distribution that demands minimization of donor risk. We suggest that this risk-tolerance framework ignores tangible benefits to the donor. A previously proposed framework more fully considers potential benefits to the donor and argues that risks and benefits must be balanced. We expand on this approach, and posit that donors sharing a household with and/or caring for a potential transplant patient may realize tangible benefits that are absent in a more distantly related donation (e.g. cousin, nondirected). We term these donors, whose well-being is closely tied to their recipient, "interdependent donors." A flexible risk-benefit model that combines risk assessment with benefits to interdependent donors will contribute to donor evaluation and selection that more accurately reflects what is at stake for donors. In so doing, a risk-benefit framework may allow some donors to accept greater risk in donation decisions. © 2017 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Integrating human health and environmental health into the DPSIR framework: a tool to identify research opportunities for sustainable and healthy communities.

PubMed

Yee, Susan H; Bradley, Patricia; Fisher, William S; Perreault, Sally D; Quackenboss, James; Johnson, Eric D; Bousquin, Justin; Murphy, Patricia A

2012-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recently realigned its research enterprise around the concept of sustainability. Scientists from across multiple disciplines have a role to play in contributing the information, methods, and tools needed to more fully understand the long-term impacts of decisions on the social and economic sustainability of communities. Success will depend on a shift in thinking to integrate, organize, and prioritize research within a systems context. We used the Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework as a basis for integrating social, cultural, and economic aspects of environmental and human health into a single framework. To make the framework broadly applicable to sustainability research planning, we provide a hierarchical system of DPSIR keywords and guidelines for use as a communication tool. The applicability of the integrated framework was first tested on a public health issue (asthma disparities) for purposes of discussion. We then applied the framework at a science planning meeting to identify opportunities for sustainable and healthy communities research. We conclude that an integrated systems framework has many potential roles in science planning, including identifying key issues, visualizing interactions within the system, identifying research gaps, organizing information, developing computational models, and identifying indicators.

[Individuals, structures, and risks: an overview of primary HIV prevention in Portugal].

PubMed

Sacramento, Octávio

2016-06-20

This article debates the principal guidelines and procedures that shape HIV/AIDS prevention in Portugal, focusing on risk reduction in the two major scenarios for spread of the epidemic: sexuality and injection drug use. The analysis views the risks of infection as expressions of practices that are densely interwoven into social structures and cultural frameworks. Based on this conception, the article seeks to evaluate and understand the extent to which preventive strategies take a broad and integrative underlying approach by including individuals and their circumstances. Meanwhile, the study identifies some of the main structural constraints impeding the achievement of more favorable conditions for minimizing risks and adopting safe behaviors. These analytical exercises include not only policy and program guidelines, but also processes in daily reality, showing how the non-implementation of measures already guaranteed by law poses powerful structural barriers to HIV prevention.

Preventing Chronic Disease in the Workplace: A Workshop Report and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Landsbergis, Paul; Hammer, Leslie; Amick, Benjamin C.; Linnan, Laura; Yancey, Antronette; Welch, Laura S.; Goetzel, Ron Z.; Flannery, Kelly M.; Pratt, Charlotte

2011-01-01

Chronic disease is the leading cause of death in the United States. Risk factors and work conditions can be addressed through health promotion aimed at improving individual health behaviors; health protection, including occupational safety and health interventions; and efforts to support the work–family interface. Responding to the need to address chronic disease at worksites, the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a workshop to identify research priorities to advance knowledge and implementation of effective strategies to reduce chronic disease risk. Workshop participants outlined a conceptual framework and corresponding research agenda to address chronic disease prevention by integrating health promotion and health protection in the workplace. PMID:21778485

Fuzzy multi-objective chance-constrained programming model for hazardous materials transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jiaoman; Yu, Lean; Li, Xiang

2016-04-01

Hazardous materials transportation is an important and hot issue of public safety. Based on the shortest path model, this paper presents a fuzzy multi-objective programming model that minimizes the transportation risk to life, travel time and fuel consumption. First, we present the risk model, travel time model and fuel consumption model. Furthermore, we formulate a chance-constrained programming model within the framework of credibility theory, in which the lengths of arcs in the transportation network are assumed to be fuzzy variables. A hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm is designed for finding a satisfactory solution. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm.

Rheumatic heart disease: infectious disease origin, chronic care approach.

PubMed

Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Ralph, Anna P; Wyber, Rosemary; Carapetis, Jonathan R

2017-11-29

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a chronic cardiac condition with an infectious aetiology, causing high disease burden in low-income settings. Affected individuals are young and associated morbidity is high. However, RHD is relatively neglected due to the populations involved and its lower incidence relative to other heart diseases. In this narrative review, we describe how RHD care can be informed by and integrated with models of care developed for priority non-communicable diseases (coronary heart disease), and high-burden communicable diseases (tuberculosis). Examining the four-level prevention model (primordial through tertiary prevention) suggests primordial and primary prevention of RHD can leverage off existing tuberculosis control efforts, given shared risk factors. Successes in coronary heart disease control provide inspiration for similarly bold initiatives for RHD. Further, we illustrate how the Chronic Care Model (CCM), developed for use in non-communicable diseases, offers a relevant framework to approach RHD care. Systems strengthening through greater integration of services can improve RHD programs. Strengthening of systems through integration/linkages with other well-performing and resourced services in conjunction with policies to adopt the CCM framework for the secondary and tertiary prevention of RHD in settings with limited resources, has the potential to significantly reduce the burden of RHD globally. More research is required to provide evidence-based recommendations for policy and service design.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework

PubMed Central

Gushulak, BD; Weekers, J; MacPherson, DW

2010-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events. PMID:22460280

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

School Health: an essential strategy in promoting community resilience and preparedness for natural disasters.

PubMed

Takahashi, Kenzo; Kodama, Mitsuya; Gregorio, Ernesto R; Tomokawa, Sachi; Asakura, Takashi; Waikagul, Jitra; Kobayashi, Jun

2015-01-01

The Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction recommended the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, which aims to achieve substantial risk reduction and to avoid various disaster-associated losses, including human lives and livelihoods, based on the lessons from the implementation of the Hyogo framework. However, the recommendations did not lay enough stress on the school and the Safe School Concept, which are the core components of a disaster response. To raise the issue of the importance of schools in disaster response. For human capacity building to avoid the damage caused by natural disasters, we should focus on the function of schools in the community and on school health framework. Schools perform a range of functions, which include being a landmark place for evacuation, acting as a participatory education hub among communities (students are usually from the surrounding communities), and being a sustainable source of current disaster-related information. In 2007, the Bangkok Action Agenda (BAA) on school education and disaster risk reduction (DRR) recommended the integration of DRR into education policy development, the enhancement of participatory mechanisms to improve DRR education, and the extension of DRR education from schools to communities. Based on our discussion and the recommendations of the BAA, we suggest that our existing challenges are to construct a repository of disaster-related lessons, develop training materials based on current information drawn from previous disasters, and disseminate the training to schools and communities. Schools linked with school health can provide good opportunities for DRR with a focus on development of school health policy and a community-oriented participatory approach.

Migrants and emerging public health issues in a globalized world: threats, risks and challenges, an evidence-based framework.

PubMed

Gushulak, Bd; Weekers, J; Macpherson, Dw

2009-01-01

International population mobility is an underlying factor in the emergence of public health threats and risks that must be managed globally. These risks are often related, but not limited, to transmissible pathogens. Mobile populations can link zones of disease emergence to lowprevalence or nonendemic areas through rapid or high-volume international movements, or both. Against this background of human movement, other global processes such as economics, trade, transportation, environment and climate change, as well as civil security influence the health impacts of disease emergence. Concurrently, global information systems, together with regulatory frameworks for disease surveillance and reporting, affect organizational and public awareness of events of potential public health significance. International regulations directed at disease mitigation and control have not kept pace with the growing challenges associated with the volume, speed, diversity, and disparity of modern patterns of human movement. The thesis that human population mobility is itself a major determinant of global public health is supported in this article by review of the published literature from the perspective of determinants of health (such as genetics/biology, behavior, environment, and socioeconomics), population-based disease prevalence differences, existing national and international health policies and regulations, as well as inter-regional shifts in population demographics and health outcomes. This paper highlights some of the emerging threats and risks to public health, identifies gaps in existing frameworks to manage health issues associated with migration, and suggests changes in approach to population mobility, globalization, and public health. The proposed integrated approach includes a broad spectrum of stakeholders ranging from individual health-care providers to policy makers and international organizations that are primarily involved in global health management, or are influenced by global health events.

Assuring consumer safety without animal testing: a feasibility case study for skin sensitisation.

PubMed

Maxwell, Gavin; Aleksic, Maja; Aptula, Aynur; Carmichael, Paul; Fentem, Julia; Gilmour, Nicola; Mackay, Cameron; Pease, Camilla; Pendlington, Ruth; Reynolds, Fiona; Scott, Daniel; Warner, Guy; Westmoreland, Carl

2008-11-01

Allergic Contact Dermatitis (ACD; chemical-induced skin sensitisation) represents a key consumer safety endpoint for the cosmetics industry. At present, animal tests (predominantly the mouse Local Lymph Node Assay) are used to generate skin sensitisation hazard data for use in consumer safety risk assessments. An animal testing ban on chemicals to be used in cosmetics will come into effect in the European Union (EU) from March 2009. This animal testing ban is also linked to an EU marketing ban on products containing any ingredients that have been subsequently tested in animals, from March 2009 or March 2013, depending on the toxicological endpoint of concern. Consequently, the testing of cosmetic ingredients in animals for their potential to induce skin sensitisation will be subject to an EU marketing ban, from March 2013 onwards. Our conceptual framework and strategy to deliver a non-animal approach to consumer safety risk assessment can be summarised as an evaluation of new technologies (e.g. 'omics', informatics), leading to the development of new non-animal (in silico and in vitro) predictive models for the generation and interpretation of new forms of hazard characterisation data, followed by the development of new risk assessment approaches to integrate these new forms of data and information in the context of human exposure. Following the principles of the conceptual framework, we have been investigating existing and developing new technologies, models and approaches, in order to explore the feasibility of delivering consumer safety risk assessment decisions in the absence of new animal data. We present here our progress in implementing this conceptual framework, with the skin sensitisation endpoint used as a case study. 2008 FRAME.

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Integrating Human and Ecosystem Health Through Ecosystem Services Frameworks.

PubMed

Ford, Adriana E S; Graham, Hilary; White, Piran C L

2015-12-01

The pace and scale of environmental change is undermining the conditions for human health. Yet the environment and human health remain poorly integrated within research, policy and practice. The ecosystem services (ES) approach provides a way of promoting integration via the frameworks used to represent relationships between environment and society in simple visual forms. To assess this potential, we undertook a scoping review of ES frameworks and assessed how each represented seven key dimensions, including ecosystem and human health. Of the 84 ES frameworks identified, the majority did not include human health (62%) or include feedback mechanisms between ecosystems and human health (75%). While ecosystem drivers of human health are included in some ES frameworks, more comprehensive frameworks are required to drive forward research and policy on environmental change and human health.

Global Drought Services: Collaborations Toward an Information System for Early Warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, M. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Svoboda, M.

2014-12-01

Drought is a hazard that lends itself well to diligent, sustained monitoring and early warning. However, unlike most hazards, the fact that droughts typically evolve slowly, can last for months or years and cover vast areas spanning multiple political boundaries/jurisdictions and economic sectors can make it a daunting task to monitor, develop plans for, and identify appropriate, proactive mitigation strategies. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) have been working together to reduce societal vulnerability to drought by helping decision makers at all levels to: 1) implement drought early warning/forecasting and decision support systems; 2) support and advocate for better collection of, and understanding of drought impacts; and 3) increase long-term resilience to drought through proactive planning. The NDMC and NIDIS risk management approach has been the basis from which many partners around the world are developing a collaboration and coordination nexus with an ultimate goal of building comprehensive global drought early warning information systems (GDEWIS). The core emphasis of this model is on developing and applying useful and usable information that can be integrated and transferred freely to other regions around the globe. The High-Level Ministerial Declaration on Drought, the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) co-led by the WMO and the Global Water Partnership (GWP), and the Global Framework for Climate Services are drawing extensively from the integrated NDMC-NIDIS risk management framework. This presentation will describe, in detail, the various drought resources, tools, services, and collaborations already being provided and undertaken at the national and regional scales by the NDMC, NIDIS, and their partners. The presentation will be forward-looking, identifying improvements in existing and proposed mechanisms to help strengthen national and international drought early warning information systems to support preparedness and adaptation decisions in a changing climate.

Value-based integrated (renal) care: setting a development agenda for research and implementation strategies.

PubMed

Valentijn, Pim P; Biermann, Claus; Bruijnzeels, Marc A

2016-08-02

Integrated care services are considered a vital strategy for improving the Triple Aim values for people with chronic kidney disease. However, a solid scholarly explanation of how to develop, implement and evaluate such value-based integrated renal care services is limited. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to identify the strategies and outcomes for the implementation of value-based integrated renal care. First, the theoretical foundations of the Rainbow Model of Integrated Care and the Triple Aim were united into one overarching framework through an iterative process of key-informant consultations. Second, a rapid review approach was conducted to identify the published research on integrated renal care, and the Cochrane Library, Medline, Scopus, and Business Source Premier databases were searched for pertinent articles published between 2000 and 2015. Based on the framework, a coding schema was developed to synthesis the included articles. The overarching framework distinguishes the integrated care domains: 1) type of integration, 2) enablers of integration and the interrelated outcome domains, 3) experience of care, 4) population health and 5) costs. The literature synthesis indicated that integrated renal care implementation strategies have particularly focused on micro clinical processes and physical outcomes, while little emphasis has been placed on meso organisational as well as macro system integration processes. In addition, evidence regarding patients' perceived outcomes and economic outcomes has been weak. These results underscore that the future challenge for researchers is to explore which integrated care implementation strategies achieve better health and improved experience of care at a lower cost within a specific context. For this purpose, this study's framework and evidence synthesis have set a developmental agenda for both integrated renal care practice and research. Accordingly, we plan further work to develop an implementation model for value-based integrated renal services.

Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yongxi

Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the potential risks caused by feedstock seasonality and demand uncertainty. Facility spatiality, time variation of feedstock yields, and demand uncertainty are integrated into a two-stage stochastic programming (SP) framework. In the study of Transitional Energy System Modeling under Uncertainty, a multistage stochastic dynamic programming is established to optimize the process of building and operating fuel production facilities during the transition. Dynamics due to the evolving technologies and societal changes and uncertainty due to demand fluctuations are the major issues to be addressed.

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although this work is focused on a group of water utilities in the Research Triangle of North Carolina, results provide insights into the conditions under which environmental changes could outpace our adaptive skill. In turn, risk measures can be designed to identify these conditions and better inform adaptive planning methods.

A new zinc-1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylate framework integrated three distinct subunits (SBUs)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Yi-Ming, E-mail: ymxie@fjirsm.ac.cn

2013-06-01

A new metal-organic framework (MOF) [Zn₅(btc)₃(H₂O)₀.₅(O)₀.₅(DMA)₃]·1.75(DMA) (1; btc=1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylate; DMA=N,N´-dimethyl acetamide) has been solvothermally synthesized. Unusually, three distinct subunits (SBUs), [Zn₂(CO₂)₄(DMA)₂], [(μ₃-H₂O)Zn₃(CO₂)₆(DMA)] and [(µ₄-O)Zn₄(CO₂)₆(DMA)₂] are observed in 1 simultaneously. The integration of three distinct SBUs leads to an interesting Zn-btc framework materials with unusual structural topology. - Graphical abstract: Presented here is a new zinc-1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylate framework integrated three distinct subunits (SBUs). - Highlights: • A new zinc-1,3,5-benzenetricarboxylate framework has been synthesized. • Three distinct subunits (SBUs) are observed in 1 simultaneously. • The integration of three distinct SBUs leads to an unusual structural topology.

Co-Creating theories and research design for an interdisciplinary project dealing with capacity building for people with migration background in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Karin; Tscharner, Susanna; Stickler, Therese; Fuchs, Britta; Damyanovic, Doris; Hübl, Johannes

2017-04-01

Understanding spatial and social aspects of vulnerability is of growing importance in the context of climate change and natural hazards. The interplay of structural factors, socio-demographic aspects, current risk communication strategies, spatial planning instruments and related processes and the current spatial and environmental situation, including hazards and hazard zones, geographical locations, building and settlement types, contributing to people`s vulnerabilities needs to be analysed and understood to reduce vulnerability and to foster resilience. The project "CCCapMig" (Climate change and capacity building for people with migration background in Austria) aims at linking spatial and technical, as well as organisational and social aspects of climate change and natural hazards. This paper focuses on the co-creation of the theoretical framework and concepts and outlines the research design for this interdisciplinary cross-analysis of several case studies in rural Austria. The project is designed as an inter- and transdisciplinary survey and brings together engineering sciences, spatial sciences and social sciences. Reflecting the interdisciplinary approach, a theoretical framework was developed that refers to a combination of both theories and frameworks from vulnerability research, theories of risk perception and spatial theories and methods like the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the Protection-Motivation Theory and Landscape-Planning Theories: The "Sustainable Livelihoods Framework" adapted (by FA0) for disaster risk management offers an analytical framework to understand the emergence of vulnerabilities from the perspective of people`s livelihoods on individual and community level. It includes human, social, natural, physical and financial aspects and the role of institutions, policies and legal rights in reducing or increasing exposure to disaster risk and coping capacities. Additionally, theories on risk perception, especially Protection-Motivation Theory, developed by social sciences, will be used as assessment frame to understand people`s flood damage mitigation behaviour. Furthermore, spatial theories and landscape planning approaches (like an everyday, evidence-based approach) are combined with theories from social sciences reflecting the interdisciplinary approach of this project that has become standard in studies on disaster and climate change. This theoretical approach was developed through a collaborative research at the beginning of the research design in order to a) develop further and test existing concepts, b) to fine-tune the proposed method setting, c) to foster common understanding of theories and methods within the interdisciplinary research team. In general, the research process is characterised by critical theory and brings in reflective elements, allowing feedback circles between methods and theories. End-users and decision-makers will be integral partners, ensuring that feasibility of the recommendations and guidelines will be guaranteed. Consequently, the methods of data collection in this project reflect the results of the critical discussion of the theoretical frameworks and combine methods of social sciences: interviews with inhabitants living in hazard zones, detailed surveys of families, focus group discussions, and expert interviews with local and regional stakeholders involved in disaster risk management. In addition to that, structural factors, demographic data, current risk communication strategies, legal instruments and related processes and the current spatial and environmental situation (including hazards and hazard zones, geographical locations, building and settlement types) are analysed.

Biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services in environmental risk assessment: introduction to the special issue.

PubMed

Schäfer, Ralf B

2012-01-15

This Special Issue focuses on the questions if and how biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services could be incorporated into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). Therefore, three articles provide a framework for the integration of ecosystem services into ERA of soils, sediments and pesticides. Further articles demonstrate ways how stakeholders can be integrated into an ecosystem service-based ERA for soils and describe how the current monitoring could be adapted to new assessment endpoints that are directly linked to ecosystem services. Case studies show that the current ERA may not be protective for biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services and that both pesticides and salinity currently adversely affect ecosystem functions in the field. Moreover, ecological models can be used for prediction of new protection goals and could finally support their implementation into the ERA. Overall, the Special Issue stresses the urgent need to enhance current procedures of ERA if biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services are to be protected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Commentary: Reconsidering the Role of Context in Diabetes Prevention

PubMed Central

Mezuk, Briana; Concha, Jeannie B.; Perrin, Paul; Green, Tiffany

2017-01-01

A substantial gap remains between what we know about type 2 diabetes prevention and our ability to apply that knowledge in socially disadvantaged populations at highest risk. This gap results, in part, from a lack of integration between epidemiologic science and social psychology theory, particularly regarding the intersections of stress, self-regulatory health behaviors, and the biological mechanisms underlying the development of diabetes. In this commentary, we describe the utility of a theoretical framework that focuses on the intersection of biological, psychosocial, and environmental contexts as they apply to diabetes disparities, and how such a framework could inform a translational research agenda to reorient prevention efforts to address these inequalities. Such reorientation is needed to ensure that the implementation of prevention efforts does not inadvertently widen diabetes disparities. PMID:28115823

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit–risk analysis

PubMed Central

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-01-01

Aim Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit–risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit–risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. Methods A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit–risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. Results A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit–risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit–risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Conclusions Benefit–risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. PMID:25940398

Integration of PKPD relationships into benefit-risk analysis.

PubMed

Bellanti, Francesco; van Wijk, Rob C; Danhof, Meindert; Della Pasqua, Oscar

2015-11-01

Despite the continuous endeavour to achieve high standards in medical care through effectiveness measures, a quantitative framework for the assessment of the benefit-risk balance of new medicines is lacking prior to regulatory approval. The aim of this short review is to summarise the approaches currently available for benefit-risk assessment. In addition, we propose the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling as the pharmacological basis for evidence synthesis and evaluation of novel therapeutic agents. A comprehensive literature search has been performed using MESH terms in PubMed, in which articles describing benefit-risk assessment and modelling and simulation were identified. In parallel, a critical review of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is presented as a tool for characterising a drug's safety and efficacy profile. A definition of benefits and risks has been proposed by the European Medicines Agency (EMA), in which qualitative and quantitative elements are included. However, in spite of the value of MCDA as a quantitative method, decisions about benefit-risk balance continue to rely on subjective expert opinion. By contrast, a model-informed approach offers the opportunity for a more comprehensive evaluation of benefit-risk balance before extensive evidence is generated in clinical practice. Benefit-risk balance should be an integral part of the risk management plan and as such considered before marketing authorisation. Modelling and simulation can be incorporated into MCDA to support the evidence synthesis as well evidence generation taking into account the underlying correlations between favourable and unfavourable effects. In addition, it represents a valuable tool for the optimization of protocol design in effectiveness trials. © 2015 The British Pharmacological Society.

On the nature of cross-disciplinary integration: A philosophical framework.

PubMed

O'Rourke, Michael; Crowley, Stephen; Gonnerman, Chad

2016-04-01

Meeting grand challenges requires responses that constructively combine multiple forms of expertise, both academic and non-academic; that is, it requires cross-disciplinary integration. But just what is cross-disciplinary integration? In this paper, we supply a preliminary answer by reviewing prominent accounts of cross-disciplinary integration from two literatures that are rarely brought together: cross-disciplinarity and philosophy of biology. Reflecting on similarities and differences in these accounts, we develop a framework that integrates their insights-integration as a generic combination process the details of which are determined by the specific contexts in which particular integrations occur. One such context is cross-disciplinary research, which yields cross-disciplinary integration. We close by reflecting on the potential applicability of this framework to research efforts aimed at meeting grand challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk.

PubMed

Soane, Emma; Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2016-06-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro-level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro-level psychology to examine individual-level risk-related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk-specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory-based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso-level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

PubMed

Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

2014-05-01

We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Services: Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA)

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forcasting Ecosystem Services--Application to the Albemarle Pamlico Basins, NC and VA (USA) and Beyond

EPA Science Inventory

We demonstrate an Integrated Modeling Framework that predicts the state of freshwater ecosystem services within the Albemarle-Pamlico Basins. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standa...

Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

2015-09-01

Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over themore » development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.« less

Quantifying Risks and Uncertainties Associated with Induced Seismicity due to CO2 Injection into Geologic Formations with Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Nguyen, B. N.; Bacon, D. H.; White, M. D.; Murray, C. J.

2016-12-01

A multiphase flow and reactive transport simulator named STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and coupled to the ABAQUS® finite element package for geomechanical analysis enabling comprehensive thermo-hydro-geochemical-mechanical (THMC) analyses. The coupled THMC simulator has been applied to analyze faulted CO2 reservoir responses (e.g., stress and strain distributions, pressure buildup, slip tendency factor, pressure margin to fracture) with various complexities in fault and reservoir structures and mineralogy. Depending on the geological and reaction network settings, long-term injection of CO2 can have a significant effect on the elastic stiffness and permeability of formation rocks. In parallel, an uncertainty quantification framework (UQ-CO2), which consists of entropy-based prior uncertainty representation, efficient sampling, geostatistical reservoir modeling, and effective response surface analysis, has been developed for quantifying risks and uncertainties associated with CO2 sequestration. It has been demonstrated for evaluating risks in CO2 leakage through natural pathways and wellbores, and for developing predictive reduced order models. Recently, a parallel STOMP-CO2-R has been developed and the updated STOMP/ABAQUS model has been proven to have a great scalability, which makes it possible to integrate the model with the UQ framework to effectively and efficiently explore multidimensional parameter space (e.g., permeability, elastic modulus, crack orientation, fault friction coefficient) for a more systematic analysis of induced seismicity risks.

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the implications for scientists and information delivery.

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

PubMed

Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

2011-05-01

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Review of child maltreatment in immigrant and refugee families.

PubMed

LeBrun, Annie; Hassan, Ghayda; Boivin, Mylène; Fraser, Sarah-Louise; Dufour, Sarah; Lavergne, Chantal

2016-03-14

Study results on child maltreatment based on general population samples cannot be extrapolated with confidence to vulnerable immigrant or refugee families because of the specific characteristics and needs of these families. The aims of this paper are 1) to conduct an evidence review of the prevalence, risk factors and protective factors for child maltreatment in immigrant and refugee populations, and 2) to integrate the evidence in an analytical ecosystemic framework that would guide future research. We used a 14-step process based on guidelines from Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and the Canadian Collaboration for Immigrant and Refugee Health. We searched major databases from "the oldest date available to July 2014". The eligibility criteria for paper selection included qualitative or quantitative methodologies; papers written in English or French; papers that describe, assess or review prevalence, risk and protection factors for child maltreatment; and a studied population of immigrants or refugees. Twenty-four articles met the criteria for eligibility. The results do not provide evidence that immigrant or refugee children are at higher risk of child maltreatment. However, recently settled immigrants and refugees experience specific risk factors related to their immigration status and to the challenges of settlement in a new country, which may result in high risk of maltreatment. Future research must incorporate more immigrant and refugee samples as well as examine, within an ecosystemic framework, the interaction between migratory and cultural factors with regard to the prevalence, consequences and treatment of child maltreatment for the targeted groups.

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

PubMed Central

Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

2012-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science.

PubMed

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive "adaptive toolbox;" the prescriptive study of their "ecological rationality," that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of "intuitive design," that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions.

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science

PubMed Central

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive “adaptive toolbox;” the prescriptive study of their “ecological rationality,” that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of “intuitive design,” that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions. PMID:26579051

An integrated radar model solution for mission level performance and cost trades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodge, John; Duncan, Kerron; Zimmerman, Madeline; Drupp, Rob; Manno, Mike; Barrett, Donald; Smith, Amelia

2017-05-01

A fully integrated Mission-Level Radar model is in development as part of a multi-year effort under the Northrop Grumman Mission Systems (NGMS) sector's Model Based Engineering (MBE) initiative to digitally interconnect and unify previously separate performance and cost models. In 2016, an NGMS internal research and development (IR and D) funded multidisciplinary team integrated radio frequency (RF), power, control, size, weight, thermal, and cost models together using a commercial-off-the-shelf software, ModelCenter, for an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system. Each represented model was digitally connected with standard interfaces and unified to allow end-to-end mission system optimization and trade studies. The radar model was then linked to the Air Force's own mission modeling framework (AFSIM). The team first had to identify the necessary models, and with the aid of subject matter experts (SMEs) understand and document the inputs, outputs, and behaviors of the component models. This agile development process and collaboration enabled rapid integration of disparate models and the validation of their combined system performance. This MBE framework will allow NGMS to design systems more efficiently and affordably, optimize architectures, and provide increased value to the customer. The model integrates detailed component models that validate cost and performance at the physics level with high-level models that provide visualization of a platform mission. This connectivity of component to mission models allows hardware and software design solutions to be better optimized to meet mission needs, creating cost-optimal solutions for the customer, while reducing design cycle time through risk mitigation and early validation of design decisions.

Promoting Social Nurturance and Positive Social Environments to Reduce Obesity in High Risk Youth

PubMed Central

Wilson, Dawn K.; Sweeney, Allison M.; Kitzman-Ulrich, Heather; Gause, Haylee; St. George, Sara M.

2017-01-01

Nurturing environments within the context of families, schools, and communities all play an important role in enhancing youth’s behavioral choices and health outcomes. The increasing prevalence rates of obesity among youth, especially among low income and ethnic minorities, highlight the need to develop effective and innovative intervention approaches that promote positive supportive environments across different contexts for at risk youth. We propose that the integration of Social Cognitive Theory, Family Systems Theory, and Self-Determination Theory offers a useful framework for understanding how individual, family and social-environmental level factors contribute to the development of nurturing environments. In this paper, we summarize evidence-based randomized controlled trials that integrate positive parenting, motivational, and behavioral skills strategies in different contexts, including primary care, home, community, and school-based settings. Taken together, these studies suggest that youth and parents are most likely to benefit when youth receive individual-level behavioral skills, family-level support and communication, and autonomous motivational support from the broader social environment. Future investigators and health care providers should consider integrating these evidence-based approaches that support the effects of positive social climate-based interventions on promoting healthy eating, physical activity, and weight management in youth. PMID:28229248

Promoting Social Nurturance and Positive Social Environments to Reduce Obesity in High-Risk Youth.

PubMed

Wilson, Dawn K; Sweeney, Allison M; Kitzman-Ulrich, Heather; Gause, Haylee; St George, Sara M

2017-03-01

Nurturing environments within the context of families, schools, and communities all play an important role in enhancing youth's behavioral choices and health outcomes. The increasing prevalence rates of obesity among youth, especially among low income and ethnic minorities, highlight the need to develop effective and innovative intervention approaches that promote positive supportive environments across different contexts for at-risk youth. We propose that the integration of Social Cognitive Theory, Family Systems Theory, and Self-Determination Theory offers a useful framework for understanding how individual, family, and social-environmental-level factors contribute to the development of nurturing environments. In this paper, we summarize evidence-based randomized controlled trials that integrate positive parenting, motivational, and behavioral skills strategies in different contexts, including primary care, home, community, and school-based settings. Taken together, these studies suggest that youth and parents are most likely to benefit when youth receive individual-level behavioral skills, family-level support and communication, and autonomous motivational support from the broader social environment. Future investigators and healthcare providers should consider integrating these evidence-based approaches that support the effects of positive social climate-based interventions on promoting healthy eating, physical activity, and weight management in youth.

Integrated fate modeling for exposure assessment of produced water on the Sable Island Bank (Scotian shelf, Canada).

PubMed

Berry, Jody A; Wells, Peter G

2004-10-01

Produced water is the largest waste discharge from the production phase of oil and gas wells. Produced water is a mixture of reservoir formation water and production chemicals from the separation process. This creates a chemical mixture that has several components of toxic concern, ranging from heavy metals to soluble hydrocarbons. Analysis of potential environmental effects from produced water in the Sable Island Bank region (NS, Canada) was conducted using an integrated modeling approach according to the ecological risk assessment framework. A hydrodynamic dispersion model was used to describe the wastewater plume. A second fugacity-based model was used to describe the likely plume partitioning in the local environmental media of water, suspended sediment, biota, and sediment. Results from the integrated modeling showed that the soluble benzene and naphthalene components reach chronic no-effect concentration levels at a distance of 1.0 m from the discharge point. The partition modeling indicated that low persistence was expected because of advection forces caused by tidal currents for the Sable Island Bank system. The exposure assessment for the two soluble hydrocarbon components suggests that the risks of adverse environmental effects from produced water on Sable Island Bank are low.

Population Health Management for Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

PubMed

Dulai, Parambir S; Singh, Siddharth; Ohno-Machado, Lucilla; Sandborn, William J

2018-01-01

Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) are chronic and impose significant, multidimensional burdens on patients and health care systems. The increasing prevalence of IBD will only worsen this problem globally-population health management (PHM) strategies are needed to increase quality of care and population health outcomes while reducing health care costs. We discuss the key components of PHM in IBD. Effective implementation of PHM strategies requires accurate identification of at-risk patients and key areas of variability in care. Improving outcomes of the at-risk population requires implementation of a multicomponent chronic care model designed to shift delivery of ambulatory care from acute, episodic, and reactive encounters, to proactive, planned, long-term care. This is achieved through team care of an activated patient with the help of remote monitoring, clinical information systems, and integrated decision support, with accompanying changes in delivery systems. Performance measurement is integral to any PHM strategy. This involves developing and implementing meaningful metrics of different phases of quality of IBD care and measuring them efficiently using modern clinical information systems. Such an integrated framework of PHM in IBD will facilitate the delivery of high-value care to patients. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integration of hybrid wireless networks in cloud services oriented enterprise information systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shancang; Xu, Lida; Wang, Xinheng; Wang, Jue

2012-05-01

This article presents a hybrid wireless network integration scheme in cloud services-based enterprise information systems (EISs). With the emerging hybrid wireless networks and cloud computing technologies, it is necessary to develop a scheme that can seamlessly integrate these new technologies into existing EISs. By combining the hybrid wireless networks and computing in EIS, a new framework is proposed, which includes frontend layer, middle layer and backend layers connected to IP EISs. Based on a collaborative architecture, cloud services management framework and process diagram are presented. As a key feature, the proposed approach integrates access control functionalities within the hybrid framework that provide users with filtered views on available cloud services based on cloud service access requirements and user security credentials. In future work, we will implement the proposed framework over SwanMesh platform by integrating the UPnP standard into an enterprise information system.

Evaluation Framework and Analyses for Thermal Energy Storage Integrated with Packaged Air Conditioning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kung, F.; Deru, M.; Bonnema, E.

2013-10-01

Few third-party guidance documents or tools are available for evaluating thermal energy storage (TES) integrated with packaged air conditioning (AC), as this type of TES is relatively new compared to TES integrated with chillers or hot water systems. To address this gap, researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory conducted a project to improve the ability of potential technology adopters to evaluate TES technologies. Major project outcomes included: development of an evaluation framework to describe key metrics, methodologies, and issues to consider when assessing the performance of TES systems integrated with packaged AC; application of multiple concepts from the evaluationmore » framework to analyze performance data from four demonstration sites; and production of a new simulation capability that enables modeling of TES integrated with packaged AC in EnergyPlus. This report includes the evaluation framework and analysis results from the project.« less

Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System, an SDR Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roche, Rigoberto

2016-01-01

The Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) provides a common, consistent framework to abstract the application software from the radio platform hardware. STRS aims to reduce the cost and risk of using complex, configurable and reprogrammable radio systems across NASA missions. The Glenn Research Center (GRC) team made a software-defined radio (SDR) platform STRS compliant by adding an STRS operating environment and a field programmable gate array (FPGA) wrapper, capable of implementing each of the platforms interfaces, as well as a test waveform to exercise those interfaces. This effort serves to provide a framework toward waveform development on an STRS compliant platform to support future space communication systems for advanced exploration missions. Validated STRS compliant applications provided tested code with extensive documentation to potentially reduce risk, cost and efforts in development of space-deployable SDRs. This paper discusses the advantages of STRS, the integration of STRS onto a Reconfigurable, Intelligently-Adaptive, Communication System (RIACS) SDR platform, the sample waveform, and wrapper development efforts. The paper emphasizes the infusion of the STRS Architecture onto the RIACS platform for potential use in next generation SDRs for advance exploration missions.

Development and delivery of clinical pharmacology in regulatory agencies.

PubMed

Breckenridge, Alasdair

2012-06-01

Medicines regulation is based on a foundation of science, policy and judgement. It operates within several frameworks (scientific, legal and public health), which are interdependent. While safety, quality and efficacy remain the criteria by which medicines are assessed, the benefit-to-harm balance for any medicine or medical device is of paramount importance. While the regulator was hitherto the gatekeeper who allowed a medicine on to the market, payers now require, in addition, assessment of cost and clinical effectiveness before use. As regulatory frameworks develop, several changes will occur, as follows: (i) formal benefit-harm assessment will become an integral part of submission for marketing authorizations; (ii) there will be greater use of surveillance for adverse reactions to new medicines using methods other than voluntary reporting; (iii) risk management plans will become benefit-risk management plans; (iv) life-saving medicines will be approved earlier; and (v) regulation and health technology assessment will take place simultaneously. Clinical pharmacologists will play important roles in these developments. © 2012 The Author. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Systems thinking applied to safety during manual handling tasks in the transport and storage industry.

PubMed

Goode, Natassia; Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Hillard, Peter

2014-07-01

Injuries resulting from manual handling tasks represent an on-going problem for the transport and storage industry. This article describes an application of a systems theory-based approach, Rasmussen's (1997. Safety Science 27, 183), risk management framework, to the analysis of the factors influencing safety during manual handling activities in a freight handling organisation. Observations of manual handling activities, cognitive decision method interviews with workers (n=27) and interviews with managers (n=35) were used to gather information about three manual handling activities. Hierarchical task analysis and thematic analysis were used to identify potential risk factors and performance shaping factors across the levels of Rasmussen's framework. These different data sources were then integrated using Rasmussen's Accimap technique to provide an overall analysis of the factors influencing safety during manual handling activities in this context. The findings demonstrate how a systems theory-based approach can be applied to this domain, and suggest that policy-orientated, rather than worker-orientated, changes are required to prevent future manual handling injuries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

PubMed

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Effectiveness of Teamwork in an Integrated Care Setting for Patients with COPD: Development and Testing of a Self-Evaluation Instrument for Interprofessional Teams

PubMed Central

Van Dijk-de Vries, Anneke N.; Duimel-Peeters, Inge G. P.; Muris, Jean W.; Wesseling, Geertjan J.; Beusmans, George H. M. I.

2016-01-01

Introduction: Teamwork between healthcare providers is conditional for the delivery of integrated care. This study aimed to assess the usefulness of the conceptual framework Integrated Team Effectiveness Model for developing and testing of the Integrated Team Effectiveness Instrument. Theory and methods: Focus groups with healthcare providers in an integrated care setting for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were conducted to examine the recognisability of the conceptual framework and to explore critical success factors for collaborative COPD practice out of this framework. The resulting items were transposed into a pilot instrument. This was reviewed by expert opinion and completed 153 times by healthcare providers. The underlying structure and internal consistency of the instrument were verified by factor analysis and Cronbach’s alpha. Results: The conceptual framework turned out to be comprehensible for discussing teamwork effectiveness. The pilot instrument measures 25 relevant aspects of teamwork in integrated COPD care. Factor analysis suggested three reliable components: teamwork effectiveness, team processes and team psychosocial traits (Cronbach’s alpha between 0.76 and 0.81). Conclusions and discussion: The conceptual framework Integrated Team Effectiveness Model is relevant in developing a practical full-spectrum instrument to facilitate discussing teamwork effectiveness. The Integrated Team Effectiveness Instrument provides a well-founded basis to self-evaluate teamwork effectiveness in integrated COPD care by healthcare providers. Recommendations are provided for the improvement of the instrument. PMID:27616953

Integrated assessment and consultation for the preoperative patient.

PubMed

Silverman, David G; Rosenbaum, Stanley H

2009-12-01

Assessment of the presurgical patient requires interdisciplinary cooperation over the continuum of documentation and optimization of existing disorders, determination of patient resilience and reserve, and planning for subsequent interventions and care. For many patients, evident or suspected morbidities or anticipated surgical disturbance warrant specialty consultation. There may be uncertainty as to the optimal processes for a given patient, a limitation attributable to myriad factors, not the least of which is that there is often a paucity of evidence that is directly relevant to a given patient in a given setting. The present article discusses these limitations and describes a framework for documentation, optimization, risk assessment, and planning, as well as a uniform grading of existing morbidities and anticipated perioperative disturbances for patients requiring integrated assessment and consultation.

Integrated assessment and consultation for the preoperative patient.

PubMed

Silverman, David G; Rosenbaum, Stanley H

2009-09-01

Assessment of the presurgical patient requires interdisciplinary cooperation over the continuum of documentation and optimization of existing disorders, determination of patient resilience and reserve, and planning for subsequent interventions and care. For many patients, evident or suspected morbidities or anticipated surgical disturbance warrant specialty consultation. There may be uncertainty as to the optimal processes for a given patient, a limitation attributable to myriad factors, not the least of which is that there is often a paucity of evidence that is directly relevant to a given patient in a given setting. The present article discusses these limitations and describes a framework for documentation, optimization, risk assessment, and planning, as well as a uniform grading of existing morbidities and anticipated perioperative disturbances for patients requiring integrated assessment and consultation.

An integrated approach to coronary heart disease diagnosis and clinical management.

PubMed

Infante, Teresa; Forte, Ernesto; Schiano, Concetta; Cavaliere, Carlo; Tedeschi, Carlo; Soricelli, Andrea; Salvatore, Marco; Napoli, Claudio

2017-01-01

The major issue in coronary heart disease (CHD) diagnosis and management is that symptoms onset in an advanced state of disease. Despite the availability of several clinical risk scores, the prediction of cardiovascular events is lacking, and many patients at risk are not well stratified according to the canonical risk factors alone. Therefore, adequate risk assessment remains the most challenging issue. Recently, the integration of imaging data with biochemical markers in a radiogenomic framework has been proposed in many fields of medicine as well as in cardiology. Multimodal imaging and advanced processing techniques can provide both direct (e.g., remodeling index, calcium score, total plaque volume, plaque burden) and indirect (e.g., myocardial perfusion index, coronary flow reserve) imaging features of CHD. Furthermore, the identification of novel non-invasive biochemical markers, mainly focused on plasma and/or serum samples, has increased the specificity of findings, reflecting several pathophysiological pathways of atherosclerosis, the principal actor in CHD. In this context, a multifaced approach, derived from the strengths of all these modalities, appears promising for finer risk stratification and treatment strategies, facilitating the decision-making and clinical management of patients. This review underlines the role of different imaging modalities in the quantification of coronary atherosclerosis and describes novel blood-based markers that could improve diagnosis and have a better predictive value in CHD.

An Applied Framework for Incorporating Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in Fisheries Stock Assessments.

PubMed

Scott, Finlay; Jardim, Ernesto; Millar, Colin P; Cerviño, Santiago

2016-01-01

Estimating fish stock status is very challenging given the many sources and high levels of uncertainty surrounding the biological processes (e.g. natural variability in the demographic rates), model selection (e.g. choosing growth or stock assessment models) and parameter estimation. Incorporating multiple sources of uncertainty in a stock assessment allows advice to better account for the risks associated with proposed management options, promoting decisions that are more robust to such uncertainty. However, a typical assessment only reports the model fit and variance of estimated parameters, thereby underreporting the overall uncertainty. Additionally, although multiple candidate models may be considered, only one is selected as the 'best' result, effectively rejecting the plausible assumptions behind the other models. We present an applied framework to integrate multiple sources of uncertainty in the stock assessment process. The first step is the generation and conditioning of a suite of stock assessment models that contain different assumptions about the stock and the fishery. The second step is the estimation of parameters, including fitting of the stock assessment models. The final step integrates across all of the results to reconcile the multi-model outcome. The framework is flexible enough to be tailored to particular stocks and fisheries and can draw on information from multiple sources to implement a broad variety of assumptions, making it applicable to stocks with varying levels of data availability The Iberian hake stock in International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) Divisions VIIIc and IXa is used to demonstrate the framework, starting from length-based stock and indices data. Process and model uncertainty are considered through the growth, natural mortality, fishing mortality, survey catchability and stock-recruitment relationship. Estimation uncertainty is included as part of the fitting process. Simple model averaging is used to integrate across the results and produce a single assessment that considers the multiple sources of uncertainty.

An Etiological Approach to Sexual Offender Assessment: CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA).

PubMed

Craig, Leam A; Rettenberger, Martin

2018-05-19

Case formulations (CF) have been the cornerstone of effective practice in clinical psychology since the 1950s and now form one of the core competencies in clinical and forensic assessment. The use of CFs within forensic settings is becoming more relevant when working with offenders who have experienced significant trauma, suffered from personality disorder, and have displayed sexually abusive behavior. Furthermore, most North American and European jurisdictions insist that expert witnesses adopt an idiosyncratic approach to risk assessment and consider the characteristics of the individual as part of a wider formulation of the problem behavior. This article focuses specifically on CF incorporating risk assessment procedures of sexual offenders. While empirical support for the use of risk analysis and formulation in managing offending behavior generally, and sexual offending behavior in particular, is limited, there is mounting evidence to suggest that CF can improve understanding of an individual's problem sexual behaviors. We argue that by integrating risk formulations into the CF provides a conceptually robust link between the etiologically development of the problem sexual behavior and effective assessment and risk management of sexual offenders. As forensic treatment programs increasingly moved toward strength-based approaches, in keeping with the Risk-Need-Responsivity principles Andrews and Bonta (2004), and the Good Lives Model Ward and Stewart (Prof Psychol Res Pract 34:353-60, 2003) of offender rehabilitation, the use of CFs in the assessment, treatment, and management of sexual offenders is indispensable. We present an etiological framework for understanding risk in an individual sexual offender by integrating a case formulation model to include the use of (static, stable, and acute) actuarial and clinical risk assessment measures as well as protective risk factors, referred to as the CAse Formulation Incorporating Risk Assessment (CAFIRA) model.

iSAW: Integrating Structure, Actors, and Water to study socio-hydro-ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hale, Rebecca L.; Armstrong, Andrea; Baker, Michelle A.; Bedingfield, Sean; Betts, David; Buahin, Caleb; Buchert, Martin; Crowl, Todd; Dupont, R. Ryan; Ehleringer, James R.; Endter-Wada, Joanna; Flint, Courtney; Grant, Jacqualine; Hinners, Sarah; Horsburgh, Jeffery S.; Jackson-Smith, Douglas; Jones, Amber S.; Licon, Carlos; Null, Sarah E.; Odame, Augustina; Pataki, Diane E.; Rosenberg, David; Runburg, Madlyn; Stoker, Philip; Strong, Courtenay

2015-03-01

Urbanization, climate, and ecosystem change represent major challenges for managing water resources. Although water systems are complex, a need exists for a generalized representation of these systems to identify important components and linkages to guide scientific inquiry and aid water management. We developed an integrated Structure-Actor-Water framework (iSAW) to facilitate the understanding of and transitions to sustainable water systems. Our goal was to produce an interdisciplinary framework for water resources research that could address management challenges across scales (e.g., plot to region) and domains (e.g., water supply and quality, transitioning, and urban landscapes). The framework was designed to be generalizable across all human-environment systems, yet with sufficient detail and flexibility to be customized to specific cases. iSAW includes three major components: structure (natural, built, and social), actors (individual and organizational), and water (quality and quantity). Key linkages among these components include: (1) ecological/hydrologic processes, (2) ecosystem/geomorphic feedbacks, (3) planning, design, and policy, (4) perceptions, information, and experience, (5) resource access and risk, and (6) operational water use and management. We illustrate the flexibility and utility of the iSAW framework by applying it to two research and management problems: understanding urban water supply and demand in a changing climate and expanding use of green storm water infrastructure in a semi-arid environment. The applications demonstrate that a generalized conceptual model can identify important components and linkages in complex and diverse water systems and facilitate communication about those systems among researchers from diverse disciplines.

Enhancing infrastructure resilience through business continuity planning.

PubMed

Fisher, Ronald; Norman, Michael; Klett, Mary

2017-01-01

Critical infrastructure is crucial to the functionality and wellbeing of the world around us. It is a complex network that works together to create an efficient society. The core components of critical infrastructure are dependent on one another to function at their full potential. Organisations face unprecedented environmental risks such as increased reliance on information technology and telecommunications, increased infrastructure interdependencies and globalisation. Successful organisations should integrate the components of cyber-physical and infrastructure interdependencies into a holistic risk framework. Physical security plans, cyber security plans and business continuity plans can help mitigate environmental risks. Cyber security plans are becoming the most crucial to have, yet are the least commonly found in organisations. As the reliance on cyber continues to grow, it is imperative that organisations update their business continuity and emergency preparedness activities to include this.

Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

2008-12-01

The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Technological iatrogenesis: the manifestation of inadequate organizational planning and the integration of health information technology.

PubMed

Palmieri, Patrick Albert; Peterson, Lori T; Corazzo, Luciano Bedoya

2011-01-01

The Institute of Medicine (IOM) views Health Information Technology (HIT) as an essential organizational prerequisite for the delivery of safe, reliable, and cost-effective health services. However, HIT presents the proverbial double-edged sword in generating solutions to improve system performance while facilitating the genesis of novel iatrogenic problems. Incongruent organizational processes give rise to technological iatrogenesis or the unintended consequences to system integrity and the resulting organizational outcomes potentiated by incongruent organizational-technological interfaces. HIT is a disruptive innovation for health services organizations but remains an overlooked organizational development (OD) concern. Recognizing the technology-organizational misalignments that result from HIT adoption is important for leaders seeking to eliminate sources of system instability. The Health Information Technology Iatrogenesis Model (HITIM) provides leaders with a conceptual framework from which to consider HIT as an instrument for organizational development. Complexity and Diffusion of Innovation theories support the framework that suggests each HIT adoption functions as a technological change agent. As such, leaders need to provide operational oversight to managers undertaking system change via HIT implementation. Traditional risk management tools, such as Failure Mode Effect Analysis and Root Cause Analysis, provide proactive pre- and post-implementation appraisals to verify system stability and to enhance system reliability. Reconsidering the use of these tools within the context of a new framework offers leaders guidance when adopting HIT to achieve performance improvement and better outcomes.

Confluence and Contours: Reflexive Management of Environmental Risk

PubMed Central

Schubert, Iljana; Pollard, Simon; Rocks, Sophie; Black, Edgar

2015-01-01

Government institutions have responsibilities to distribute risk management funds meaningfully and to be accountable for their choices. We took a macro‐level sociological approach to understanding the role of government in managing environmental risks, and insights from micro‐level psychology to examine individual‐level risk‐related perceptions and beliefs. Survey data from 2,068 U.K. citizens showed that lay people's funding preferences were associated positively with beliefs about responsibility and trust, yet associations with perception varied depending on risk type. Moreover, there were risk‐specific differences in the funding preferences of the lay sample and 29 policymakers. A laboratory‐based study of 109 participants examined funding allocation in more detail through iterative presentation of expert information. Quantitative and qualitative data revealed a meso‐level framework comprising three types of decisionmakers who varied in their willingness to change funding allocation preferences following expert information: adaptors, responders, and resistors. This research highlights the relevance of integrated theoretical approaches to understanding the policy process, and the benefits of reflexive dialogue to managing environmental risks. PMID:26720858

Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Using Cybernomic Computational Models: Tailored for Industrial Control Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Schlicher, Bob G

2015-01-01

There are many influencing economic factors to weigh from the defender-practitioner stakeholder point-of-view that involve cost combined with development/deployment models. Some examples include the cost of countermeasures themselves, the cost of training and the cost of maintenance. Meanwhile, we must better anticipate the total cost from a compromise. The return on investment in countermeasures is essentially impact costs (i.e., the costs from violating availability, integrity and confidentiality / privacy requirements). The natural question arises about choosing the main risks that must be mitigated/controlled and monitored in deciding where to focus security investments. To answer this question, we have investigated themore » cost/benefits to the attacker/defender to better estimate risk exposure. In doing so, it s important to develop a sound basis for estimating the factors that derive risk exposure, such as likelihood that a threat will emerge and whether it will be thwarted. This impact assessment framework can provide key information for ranking cybersecurity threats and managing risk.« less

Public Health Models for Preventing Child Maltreatment: Applications From the Field of Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Scott, Debbie; Lonne, Bob; Higgins, Daryl

2016-10-01

Contemporary approaches to child protection are dominated by individualized forensically focused interventions that provide limited scope for more holistic preventative responses to children at risk and the provision of support to struggling families and communities. However, in many jurisdictions, it is frequently shown, often through public inquiries and program reviews, that investigatory and removal approaches are failing in critically important ways, particularly regarding reducing the inequities that underpin neglect and abuse. Consequently, there have been increasing calls for a public health model for the protection of children, although there is often a lack of clarity as to what exactly this should entail. Yet, there are opportunities to learn from public health approaches successfully used in the field of injury prevention. Specifically, we advocate for the use of Haddon's Matrix, which provides a detailed theoretical and practical framework for the application of a comprehensive and integrated public health model to guide intervention program design and responses to child protection risk factors. A broad overview of the application of Haddon's Matrix's principles and methods is provided with examples of program and intervention design. It is argued that this framework provides the range of interventions necessary to address the complex social and structural factors contributing to inequity and the maltreatment of children. It also provides the foundation for a holistic and integrated system of prevention and intervention to contribute to system-level change and address child maltreatment. © The Author(s) 2016.

Patterns of adaptation to children's food allergies.

PubMed

Fedele, D A; McQuaid, E L; Faino, A; Strand, M; Cohen, S; Robinson, J; Atkins, D; Hourihane, J O'B; Klinnert, M D

2016-04-01

Families with food allergy (FA) are at risk of reduced quality of life and elevated anxiety. A moderate level of anxiety may be beneficial to sustain vigilance for food avoidance; however, excessive anxiety may increase risk for burden and maladjustment. The current study presents a framework for understanding the patterns of adaptation to FA across families and to identify typologies of families that would benefit from intervention. Participants included 57 children, 6-12 years old with documented FA, and their mothers. Families were assessed using the Food Allergy Management and Adaptation Scale. Families also completed measures of quality of life, anxiety, FA management, and psychosocial impairment. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that 56 of the 57 families of food-allergic children were categorized into four groups that differed on their adequacy of family FA management, levels of anxiety, and balanced psychosocial functioning: balanced responders (n = 23; 41%), high responders (n = 25; 45%), and low responders (n = 3; 5%). The fourth group, anxious high responders (n = 5; 9%), was characterized by extremely high maternal FA anxiety scores and low scores for balanced integration of FA management and psychosocial functioning. Families in clusters differed across illness and psychosocial outcome variables. Families with FA were characterized by patterns of FA management, anxiety, and ability to integrate FA demands into daily life. Identified adaptation patterns correspond with clinical impressions and provide a framework for identifying families in need of intervention. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Catalyzing action towards the sustainability of deltas: deltas as integrated socio-ecological systems and sentinels of regional and global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foufoula-Georgiou, E.; Tessler, Z. D.; Brondizio, E.; Overeem, I.; Renaud, F.; Sebesvari, Z.; Nicholls, R. J.; Anthony, E.

2016-12-01

Deltas are highly dynamic and productive environments: they are food baskets of the world, home to biodiverse and rich ecosystems, and they play a central role in food and water security. However, they are becoming increasingly vulnerable to risks arising from human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. Our Belmont Forum DELTAS project (BF-DELTAS: Catalyzing actions towards delta sustainability) encompasses an international network of interdisciplinary research collaborators with focal areas in the Mekong, Ganges Brahmaputra, and the Amazon deltas. The project is organized around five main modules: (1) developing an analytical framework for assessing delta vulnerability and scenarios of change (Delta-SRES), (2) developing an open-acess, science-based integrative modeling framework for risk assessment and decision support (Delta-RADS), (3) developing tools to support quantitative mapping of the bio-physical and socio-economic environments of deltas and consolidate bio-physical and social data within shared data repositories (Delta-DAT), (4) developing Global Delta Vulnerability Indices (Delta-GDVI) that capture current and projected scenarios for major deltas around the world , and (5) collaborating with regional stakeholders to put the science, modeling, and data into action (Delta-ACT). In this talk, a research summary will be presented on three research domains around which significant collaborative work was developed: advancing biophysical classification of deltas, understanding deltas as coupled socio-ecological systems, and analyzing and informing social and environmental vulnerabilities in delta regions.