Science.gov

Sample records for inter annual patterns

  1. Patterns and controls of inter-annual variability in the terrestrial carbon budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcolla, Barbara; Rödenbeck, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-08-01

    The terrestrial carbon fluxes show the largest variability among the components of the global carbon cycle and drive most of the temporal variations in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2. Understanding the environmental controls and trends of the terrestrial carbon budget is therefore essential to predict the future trajectories of the CO2 airborne fraction and atmospheric concentrations. In the present work, patterns and controls of the inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon net ecosystem exchange (NEE) have been analysed using three different data streams: ecosystem-level observations from the FLUXNET database (La Thuile and 2015 releases), the MPI-MTE (model tree ensemble) bottom-up product resulting from the global upscaling of site-level fluxes, and the Jena CarboScope Inversion, a top-down estimate of surface fluxes obtained from observed CO2 concentrations and an atmospheric transport model. Consistencies and discrepancies in the temporal and spatial patterns and in the climatic and physiological controls of IAV were investigated between the three data sources. Results show that the global average of IAV at FLUXNET sites, quantified as the standard deviation of annual NEE, peaks in arid ecosystems and amounts to ˜ 120 gC m-2 y-1, almost 6 times more than the values calculated from the two global products (15 and 20 gC m-2 y-1 for MPI-MTE and the Jena Inversion, respectively). Most of the temporal variability observed in the last three decades of the MPI-MTE and Jena Inversion products is due to yearly anomalies, whereas the temporal trends explain only about 15 and 20 % of the variability, respectively. Both at the site level and on a global scale, the IAV of NEE is driven by the gross primary productivity and in particular by the cumulative carbon flux during the months when land acts as a sink. Altogether these results offer a broad view on the magnitude, spatial patterns and environmental drivers of IAV from a variety of data sources that can be

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual snowmelt patterns in the southern Sierra Nevada, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musselman, K. N.; Molotch, N. P.; Margulis, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    In the Sierra Nevada, seasonal snow represents a critical component of California's water resource infrastructure in that it affords reliable water during otherwise arid summers. Complex spatial, seasonal and inter-annual snowmelt patterns determine when and where that meltwater is available. Our knowledge of snowmelt dynamics is typically limited to what we can infer from sparse, point-scale snow measurement stations. Limitations such as these motivate the use of numerical snowmelt models. We evaluate the ability of the Alpine3D model system to represent three years of snow dynamics over an 1800 km2 area of Sequoia National Park. The domain spans a 3600 m elevation gradient and ecosystems ranging from semi-arid grasslands to massive sequoia stands to alpine tundra. The model results were evaluated against data from a multi-scale measurement campaign that included airborne LiDAR, clusters of snow depth sensors, repeated manual snow surveys, and automated SWE stations. Compared to these measurements, Alpine3D consistently performed well in middle elevation conifer forests; compared to LiDAR data, the mean snow depth error in forested regions was < 2%. The model also simulated the snow disappearance date within two days of that measured by regional automated sensors. At upper elevations, however, the model tended to overestimate SWE by 50% to as much as 100% in some areas and the errors were linearly correlated (R2 > 0.80, p<0.01) with the distance of the SWE measurements from the nearest precipitation gauge used to derive the model forcing. The results suggest that Alpine3D is highly accurate during the melt season and that precipitation uncertainty may be a critical limitation on snow model accuracy. Finally, an analysis of seasonal and inter-annual snowmelt patterns highlighted distinct melt differences between lower, middle, and upper elevations. Snowmelt was generally most frequent (70% - 95% of the snow-covered season) at the lower elevations where snow cover

  3. Inter-annual patterns of aggression and pair bonding in captive American flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber).

    PubMed

    Frumkin, Nathan B; Wey, Tina W; Exnicios, Megan; Benham, Caroline; Hinton, Mitchell G; Lantz, Samantha; Atherton, Carolyn; Forde, Debbie; Karubian, Jordan

    2016-01-01

    Because zoos typically house animals for extended periods of time, longitudinal studies can play an important role in evaluating and optimizing animal care and management. For example, information on patterns of aggression and mating behavior across years can be used to monitor well-being, assess response to changes to group composition, and promote successful reproduction. Here, we report on patterns of aggression and pair bonding by American flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber) at the Audubon Zoo, New Orleans USA across 4 years (2012-2015), a period that included a simultaneous introduction and removal of individuals in 2014. At the population level, overall rates and social network indices of aggressive interactions were relatively stable over the study period, without a strong signal of the 2014 replacement event. At the individual level, flamingos exhibited a high degree of within-individual consistency in levels of aggression initiated (W = 0.530, P < 0.001), and received (W = 0.369, P = 0.042). In terms of pair bonds, females re-paired with the same individuals across years more frequently (between 58% and 100% from year to year) than they switched mates, and no bonds were established between pre-existing and introduced individuals. These findings indicate a high degree of stability in aggression and pair bonding behavior in this population of captive flamingos, at both the population and individual level. Longitudinal studies such as this one provide an opportunity to better our understanding of flamingos and other long-lived, group-living animals along with their management needs, especially in terms of maintaining social cohesion in captivity and improving captive breeding programs.

  4. Five years of phenological monitoring in a mountain grassland: inter-annual patterns and evaluation of the sampling protocol.

    PubMed

    Filippa, Gianluca; Cremonese, Edoardo; Galvagno, Marta; Migliavacca, Mirco; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Petey, Martina; Siniscalco, Consolata

    2015-12-01

    The increasingly important effect of climate change and extremes on alpine phenology highlights the need to establish accurate monitoring methods to track inter-annual variation (IAV) and long-term trends in plant phenology. We evaluated four different indices of phenological development (two for plant productivity, i.e., green biomass and leaf area index; two for plant greenness, i.e., greenness from visual inspection and from digital images) from a 5-year monitoring of ecosystem phenology, here defined as the seasonal development of the grassland canopy, in a subalpine grassland site (NW Alps). Our aim was to establish an effective observation strategy that enables the detection of shifts in grassland phenology in response to climate trends and meteorological extremes. The seasonal development of the vegetation at this site appears strongly controlled by snowmelt mostly in its first stages and to a lesser extent in the overall development trajectory. All indices were able to detect an anomalous beginning of the growing season in 2011 due to an exceptionally early snowmelt, whereas only some of them revealed a later beginning of the growing season in 2013 due to a late snowmelt. A method is developed to derive the number of samples that maximise the trade-off between sampling effort and accuracy in IAV detection in the context of long-term phenology monitoring programmes. Results show that spring phenology requires a smaller number of samples than autumn phenology to track a given target of IAV. Additionally, productivity indices (leaf area index and green biomass) have a higher sampling requirement than greenness derived from visual estimation and from the analysis of digital images. Of the latter two, the analysis of digital images stands out as the more effective, rapid and objective method to detect IAV in vegetation development.

  5. Five years of phenological monitoring in a mountain grassland: inter-annual patterns and evaluation of the sampling protocol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filippa, Gianluca; Cremonese, Edoardo; Galvagno, Marta; Migliavacca, Mirco; Morra di Cella, Umberto; Petey, Martina; Siniscalco, Consolata

    2015-12-01

    The increasingly important effect of climate change and extremes on alpine phenology highlights the need to establish accurate monitoring methods to track inter-annual variation (IAV) and long-term trends in plant phenology. We evaluated four different indices of phenological development (two for plant productivity, i.e., green biomass and leaf area index; two for plant greenness, i.e., greenness from visual inspection and from digital images) from a 5-year monitoring of ecosystem phenology, here defined as the seasonal development of the grassland canopy, in a subalpine grassland site (NW Alps). Our aim was to establish an effective observation strategy that enables the detection of shifts in grassland phenology in response to climate trends and meteorological extremes. The seasonal development of the vegetation at this site appears strongly controlled by snowmelt mostly in its first stages and to a lesser extent in the overall development trajectory. All indices were able to detect an anomalous beginning of the growing season in 2011 due to an exceptionally early snowmelt, whereas only some of them revealed a later beginning of the growing season in 2013 due to a late snowmelt. A method is developed to derive the number of samples that maximise the trade-off between sampling effort and accuracy in IAV detection in the context of long-term phenology monitoring programmes. Results show that spring phenology requires a smaller number of samples than autumn phenology to track a given target of IAV. Additionally, productivity indices (leaf area index and green biomass) have a higher sampling requirement than greenness derived from visual estimation and from the analysis of digital images. Of the latter two, the analysis of digital images stands out as the more effective, rapid and objective method to detect IAV in vegetation development.

  6. From egg production to recruits: Connectivity and inter-annual variability in the recruitment patterns of European anchovy in the northwestern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ospina-Alvarez, Andres; Catalán, Ignacio A.; Bernal, Miguel; Roos, David; Palomera, Isabel

    2015-11-01

    We show the application of a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model (SEIBM) to understand the recruitment process of European anchovy. The SEIBM is applied to simulate the effects of inter-annual variability in parental population spawning behavior and intensity, and ocean dynamics, on the dispersal of eggs and larvae from the spawning area in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) towards the coastal nursery areas in the GoL and Catalan Sea (northwestern Mediterranean Sea). For each of seven years (2003-2009), we initialize the SEIBM with the real positions of anchovy eggs during the spawning peak, from an acoustics-derived eggs production model. We analyze the effect of spawners' distribution, timing of spawning, and oceanographic conditions on the connectivity patterns, growth, dispersal distance and late-larval recruitment (14 mm larva recruits, R14) patterns. The area of influence of the Rhône river plume was identified as having a high probability of larval recruitment success (64%), but up to 36% of R14 larvae end up in the Catalan Coast. We demonstrate that the spatial paths of larvae differ dramatically from year to year, and suggest potential offshore nursery grounds. We showed that our simulations are coherent with existing recruitment proxies and therefore open new possibilities for fisheries management.

  7. Inter-annual variability of year-round NEE over 18 years, and environmental controls on seasonal patterns at an arctic wet sedge tundra, CMDL Barrow, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalhori, A. A. M.; Oechel, W. C.; Goodrich, J. P.; Gioli, B.; Burba, G. G.; Shen, S. S. P.; Murphy, P.; Zona, D.

    2016-12-01

    To refine understanding of the total annual carbon balance in the Arctic, it is critical to extend long-term site-level CO2 flux data collection. These data are critical to addressing the environmental controls and processes responsible for temporal variability and seasonal patterns of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE). This dataset represents the longest running eddy covariance tower in the Arctic, which is located in an Alaskan wet sedge tundra ecosystem and is adjacent to the NOAA Climate Monitoring & Diagnostic Laboratory (CMDL). In addition to analyzing the year-to-year controls on NEE and its long-term trends, this work will complement a parallel study of the 40 year record of CO2 concentration measurements from the NOAA Barrow synoptic sampling station. For long-term, retrospective measurements, missing values are unavoidable, resulting from system failure, sensors icing-up during winter, losing network connections due to the harsh conditions, necessary instrument repairs, etc. Therefore, to analyze the annual sums, diurnal patterns, and seasonal vs. annual fluxes, the choice of gap-filling approach is critical and can dominate the magnitude of uncertainties, especially for periods with long gaps (> 1 month). We have applied different gap-filling methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), and multiple linear regression (MLR) driven by micrometeorological parameters in an effort to minimize the associated uncertainties. Following gap-filling, a stepwise multiple regression against meteorological drivers including average summer PAR, average air and soil temperature, growing season length, duration of the zero curtain, growing degree days (GDD), date of snow melt, date of freeze up, and length of the summer was applied to determine the parameters that best explain the magnitude and sign of NEE in different seasons. These statistical analyses show that growing degree days were strongly correlated with summer NEE, which increased with higher GDD

  8. Inter-American Foundation Annual Report 1987.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, VA.

    This annual report from the Inter-American Foundation (IAF), a federal development agency, includes letters from foundation officials describing the IAF-funded work in poverty areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The report describes IAF's In-Country Support System (ICS), staffed by local professionals who assist grantees and report their…

  9. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Patterns in Ecosystem-Scale Photosynthesis and Respiration in a Temperate Forest Revealed by Isotopic Partitioning of NEE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehr, R. A.; Munger, J. W.; McManus, J. B.; Nelson, D. D.; Zahniser, M. S.; Wofsy, S. C.; Saleska, S. R.

    2014-12-01

    Measurements of the isotopic composition of the net ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of CO2 (NEE) can be used to partition that exchange into its photosynthetic and respiratory components on an hourly basis, without the need for a priori assumptions about the responses of those components to environmental drivers. This method relies on photosynthesis and respiration having distinct isotopic signatures, which they generally do because the photosynthetic signature varies hourly (e.g. with light availability), whereas the respiratory signature is governed mostly by soil substrate composition and so varies only daily or weekly. Since 2011, we have been measuring the isotopic composition of NEE in a temperate deciduous forest by eddy covariance, using a quantum cascade laser spectrometer. Previously presented isotopic partitioning of the 2011 growing season indicated that ecosystem photosynthesis became more efficient through the summer (with respect to light and water use) and that during the hot, dry period in July, daytime ecosystem respiration was more strongly limited by soil moisture than was nighttime respiration, leading standard non-isotopic partitioning to substantially overestimate daytime ecosystem respiration and hence photosynthesis. Here we extend our analysis to span the three-year period from 2011 through 2013, taking advantage of large inter-annual differences in the seasonal pattern of soil moisture at the forest to test the prediction that standard partitioning exaggerates daytime ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis under drought conditions, and to further explore the mechanisms behind the apparent increase in photosynthetic efficiency through the summer.

  10. Inter-American Foundation Annual Report 1988.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, VA.

    The Inter-American Foundation (IAF), an independent agency created by Congress, funds local private organizations that support the self-help efforts of the poor in Latin America and the Caribbean. In fiscal year 1988, IAF approved 208 new grants, 173 grant supplements, and other program activities totaling nearly $25 million. The average grant…

  11. Inter-American Foundation Annual Report 1989.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Inter-American Foundation, Rosslyn, VA.

    The Inter-American Foundation (IAF), an independent agency created by Congress, funds local private organizations that support the self-help efforts of the poor in 25 Latin American and Caribbean countries. In fiscal year 1989, IAF approved 208 new grants, 175 grant supplements, and other program activities totaling over $25 million. The average…

  12. Epidemiology of canine heartworm in its southern distribution limit in South America: Risk factors, inter-annual trend and spatial patterns.

    PubMed

    Vezzani, Darío; Carbajo, Aníbal E; Fontanarrosa, María F; Scodellaro, Carla F; Basabe, Julia; Cangiano, Griselda; Eiras, Diego F

    2011-03-10

    This study was aimed at understanding some aspects of the canine heartworm epidemiology in the southern distribution limit of the parasite in South America. With this objective, 19,298 blood samples of owned dogs from 65 localities of 13 municipalities of Buenos Aires Province were tested for Dirofilaria immitis circulating microfilariae and/or female antigens. The overall heartworm prevalence was 1.63% by microhematocrit tube technique (n=19,136), 3.65% by modified Knott (n=713), and 14.41% by antigen test kit (n=118). Microfilaremic dogs showed a median of 1933 microfilariae per millilitre (q1=375, q3=5625, n=100). Male dogs belonging to breeds of short hair and large size recorded significantly higher prevalences than the other categories. Also, the prevalence increased significantly with the age and only dogs younger than 12 months were not found infected. A clear decreasing trend of the annual prevalence was observed during the whole study period, from 3.91% in 2001 to 1.17% in 2006. D. immitis-infected dogs were detected in 32 localities of 9 municipalities (prevalence range: 0.2-6.7%). Generalized linear models were used to assess associations between heartworm prevalence and environmental variables. The resulting significant models were univariate and included variables related with soil cover and human population density. The best model predicted maximum heartworm prevalences around middle values of bare soil cover, and lower at high and low covers. According to our analyses, canine heartworm infection in urban temperate Argentina could be described as relatively low, endemic, and spatially heterogeneous. Host and environmental factors affecting heartworm transmission at local level were identified and discussed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimating inter-annual runoff variability from global hydroclimatic data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peel, Murray; McMahon, Thomas; Finlayson, Brian

    2016-04-01

    Inter-annual variability of runoff, measured by the coefficient of variation of annual runoff (RCv), is an important constraint on reservoir yield and storage size for water resources management. For a catchment with a fixed storage capacity, any increase in reservoir inflow RCv translates into reduced reservoir yield for a given reliability of supply. Developing an improved understanding of the physical influences on inter-annual runoff variability around the world and how these may change in future is of vital importance to achieving on-going robust water and catchment management. Here we take a large-scale Comparative Hydrology approach to develop empirical relationships for RCv using a global hydroclimatic data set of 588 catchments. Empirical RCv relationships are developed for the World and catchments experiencing predominantly (≥75% catchment area) tropical, arid, temperate or cold climate types. The RCv relationships are developed specifically using non-streamflow based predictor variables so they can be used for predicting RCv in ungauged basins (the PUB problem - Prediction in Ungauged Basins) and or ungauged climates (the PUC problem - Prediction in Ungauged Climates) if past or future projections of the required predictor variables are available. Empirical relationship predictor variables are based on precipitation, evaporative demand, vegetation and topography. Key variables that contribute to explaining RCv in each relationship will be assessed to identify the dominant drivers of RCv and how the contribution of those drivers varies between regions and climate types, with particular focus on inter-annual climate variability.

  14. Lakes in permafrost areas - inter- and intra-annual variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartsch, Annett; Widhalm, Barbara; Leibman, Marina; Khomutov, Artem

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is pronounced in the Arctic. Increasing temperatures above the global mean are expected for most of the region. This has an effect on soil temperature and thus the extent of permafrost. Lakes are a characteristic feature of lowland permafrost. Their changes as detected with satellite data are often interpreted as indicator for climate change. They are however in many cases connected to flood plains and thus undergo seasonal changes which are not confined to the period just after snowmelt. The Yamal peninsula is one of the areas from which changes have been reported (active layer thickness measurements for more than 20 years) and where it is expected that continuous permafrost will not be present anymore towards the end of this century. It has been already shown in the past that seasonal variations are common in several parts of the peninsula. These need to be considered for longterm studies based on lake monitoring. This requires high temporal resolution which can be only achieved with high resolution radar information (SAR which is cloud independent). The ENVISAT ASAR archive provided data for initial studies covering 2007 and 2008. This time series has been now extended with TerraSAR-X to 2015 for hotspots of variations and changes (shrinking versus emerging vegetation) verified by in-situ observations. The new data also provide better spatial detail (3 m compared to 75m). Inter and intra-annual variations have been quantified in space and time. The temporal pattern has been also analyzed with respect to snowmelt timing (obtained by satellite and ground temperature observations). Results are discussed with respect to previous inundation trend studies based on global coarse resolution (>25 km) datasets which depict significant changes on the peninsula.

  15. On the use of a water balance to evaluate inter-annual terrestrial ET variability

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Accurately measuring inter-annual variability in terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is a major challenge for efforts to detect inter-annual variability in the hydrologic cycle. Based on comparisons with annual ET values derived from a terrestrial water balance analysis, past research has cast doubt...

  16. The Greenland Sea Odden: Intra- and inter-annual variability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Russell, C.A.; Fischer, K.W.; Shuchman, R.A.; Josberger, E.G.

    1997-01-01

    The "Odden" is a large sea ice feature that forms in the East Greenland Sea which generally forms at the beginning of the winter season and can cover 300,000 km2. Throughout the winter, the outer edge of the Odden may advance and retreat by several hundred kilometers on time scales of a few days to weeks. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1978 through 1995 provide a continuous record of the spatial and temporal variations of this extremely dynamic phenomenon. The 17 year record shows both strong inter- and intra-annual variations in Odden extent and temporal behavior. An analysis of the satellite passive microwave derived ice area and extent time series along with meteorological data from the Arctic Drifting Buoy Network determined the meteorological forcing required for Odden growth, maintenance and decay. The key meteorological parameters which cause the rapid ice formation and decay associated with the Odden are, in order of importance, air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction. Atmospheric pressure was found not to play a significant role in the Odden events. Air temperature and wind direction are the dominant variables with temperatures below -9.5??C and winds from the west required to trigger significant Odden ice formation events. ??2004 Copyright SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering.

  17. Inter-annual variability in the Yucatan Channel flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Athié, G.; Sheinbaum, J.; Ochoa-de-La-Torre, J. L.; Romero-Arteaga, A.; Candela, J.

    2013-05-01

    Mooring measurements in the Yucatán Channel from May, 2010 to May, 2011 yield a mean transport of 27 Sv with a standard deviation of 3 Sv. This value is higher than the 23 Sv previously reported from 21 months (Sep., 1999 to May, 2001) of continuous measurements by the Canek Program. Analysis of low-frequency surface geostrophic velocities, derived from 18 years of altimetry data indicate that during the 1999-2001 measurement period, the southward flow on the eastern side of Yucatan Channel, commonly known as the Cuban Countercurrent was particularly strong. The average surface geostrophic flow on the eastern side of the channel (east of 86.5°W) during the 1999-2001 period is 0.17 ms-1, a value 28% lower than its long-term average, indicating the impact of the stronger Cuban Countercurrent during the period. SSH maps in the North Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are used to investigate the causes of this inter-annual variability. High frequency transport fluctuations west and east of 86.5°W are inversely correlated, with strong pulses that strengthen the Yucatan Current (flow into de Gulf) correlated with a strengthened Cuban Countercurrent (flow into the Caribbean).

  18. Inter-annual variability in Alaskan net ecosystem CO2 exchange

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luus, Kristina; Lindaas, Jakob; Commane, Roisin; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Oechel, Walter; Zona, Donatella; Chang, Rachel; Kelly, Richard; Miller, Charles; Wofsy, Steven; Lin, John

    2015-04-01

    The high-latitude biospheric carbon cycle's responses to climate change are predicted to have an important role in determining future atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In response to warming soil and air temperatures, Arctic wetlands have been observed to increase rates of both soil C efflux and vegetation C uptake through photosynthesis. However, insights into the regional-scale consequences of these processes for net C uptake have been limited by the large uncertainties existing in process-based model estimates of Arctic net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). The Polar Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (PolarVPRM) instead provides data-driven, satellite-based estimates of high-latitude NEE, using a framework which specifically accounts for polar influences on NEE. PolarVPRM calculates NEE as the sum of respiration (R) and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE), where GEE refers to the light-dependent portion of NEE: NEE= -GEE + R. Meteorological inputs for PolarVPRM are provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and land surface inputs are acquired from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Growing season R is calculated from air temperature, and subnivean R is calculated according to soil temperature. GEE is calculated according to shortwave radiation, air temperature, and MODIS-derived estimates of soil moisture and vegetation biomass. Previously, model validation has indicated that PolarVPRM showed reasonably good agreement with eddy covariance observations at nine North American Arctic sites, of which three were used for calibration purposes. For this project, PolarVPRM NEE was calculated year-round across Alaska at a three-hourly temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 1 6°×1 4° (latitude × longitude). The objective of this work was to gain insight into inter-annual variability in Alaskan NEE, R and GEE, and an understanding of which meteorological and land surface drivers account for these observed patterns

  19. High resolution Greenland ice sheet inter-annual mass variations combining GRACE gravimetry and Envisat altimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Xiaoli; Shum, C. K.; Guo, Junyi; Duan, Jianbin; Howat, Ian; Yi, Yuchan

    2015-07-01

    Inter-annual mass variations of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are important for improving mass balance estimates, validation of atmospheric circulation models and their potential improvement. By combining observed inter-annual variations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Environmental Satellite (Envisat) altimetry data over the period from January 2003 to December 2009, we are able to estimate the nominal density, with the objective of obtaining higher resolution mass changes using altimeter data at the inter-annual scale. We find high correlations between these two inter-annual variations on the order of 0.7 over 60% of the GrIS, in particular over the west side along the central ice divide. Significant negative correlations are found in parts of Northeast and Southeast GrIS, where negative inter-annual variation correlations were also found between mass change from GRACE and snow depth from ECMWF reanalysis in a previous study. In the regions of positive correlation, the estimated nominal densities range from 383.7 ± 50.9 to 596.2 ± 34.1 kgm-3. We demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining high-resolution inter-annual mass variation over Southwest GrIS, one of the regions with positive correlations, based on density-corrected Envisat altimetry, 2003-2009. A definitive explanation for the existence of regions of negative correlation remains elusive.

  20. Extreme rainfall events can alter inter-annual biomass responses to water and N enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, D. L.; Lü, X. T.; Jiang, L. L.; Wu, H. F.; Miao, Y.; Kardol, P.

    2013-12-01

    Water availability has profound effects on plant growth and productivity in temperate and semiarid grasslands. However, it remains unclear how variation of inter-annual precipitation by extreme rainfall events will alter the aboveground and belowground responses of plants, and how these responses may be contingent on N availability. In this study, we examined the interactive effects of inter-annual precipitation variation and N addition on aboveground and live fine root biomass of a semiarid grassland in northern China for two consecutive years (2007 and 2008). Inter-annual variation in precipitation resulting mainly from the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in 2008 significantly affected above- and belowground plant biomass responses to water addition. In addition, variation of inter-annual precipitation by this extreme rainfall event suppressed plant responses to nitrogen addition and reduced the interaction effects between water and nitrogen addition. These effects of inter-annual precipitation fluctuation could be attributed to the negative influence of the extreme rainfall event on soil N and water availability, ultimately reducing plant rainfall use efficiency and nitrogen use efficiency. In conclusion, our results suggest ecosystem responses to water and N enrichment could be altered by inter-annual variation of precipitation regime caused by the naturally occurring extreme rainfall events.

  1. Inter-Annual Variability of Aerosol Optical Depth over East Asia during 2000-2011 summers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Liu, Y.; Tao, S.

    2013-12-01

    Aerosols degrade air quality, perturb atmospheric radiation, and impact regional and global climate. Due to a rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, aerosol loading over East Asia (EA) is markedly higher than other industrialized regions, motivating a need to characterize the evolution of aerosols and understand the associated drivers. Based on the MISR satellite data during 2000-2011, a wave-like inter-annual variation of summertime aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is observed over the highly populated North China Plain (NCP) in East Asia. Specifically, the peak to trough ratio of SAOD ranges from 1.4 to 1.6, with a period of 3-4y. This variation pattern differs apparently from what has been seen in EA emissions, indicating a periodic change in regional climate pattern during the past decade. Investigations on meteorological fields over the region reveal that the high SAOD is generally associated with enhanced Philippine Sea Anticyclone Anomaly (PSAA), which weakens southeasterlies over northeastern EA and depresses air ventilation. Alternatively, a higher temperature or lower relative humidity is found to be coincident with reduced SAOD. The behavior of PSAA has been found previously to be modulated by the El Niño southern oscillations (ENSO), which thereby could disturb the EA SAOD as well. Rather than changing coherently with the ENSO activity, SAOD peaks over the NCP are found to be accompanied by the rapid transition of El Niño warm to cold phases developed four months ahead. An index measuring the ENSO development during January-April is able to capture the inter-annual variability of NCP SAOD during 2000-2011. This indicates a need to integrate the consideration of large-scale periodic climate variability in the design of regional air quality policy.

  2. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term memory in long historical temperature records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Qimin; Fu, Zuntao

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the estimation of long-term correlation induced by inter-annual variability of annual cycle have been investigated by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). In a consequence of the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, the annual cycle suffers from both amplitude and phase fluctuations. How does this changing annual cycle affect the fluctuation of temperature anomalies? A recently developed adaptive data analysis tool, the Nonlinear Mode Decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle. We compared the differences of the long-term correlation calculated by removing different annual cycle, time-varying and stationary. The study was based on long historical temperature records around the North Atlantic Ocean. The traditional climatology annual cycle which lack characteristic of inter-annual fluctuation would lead to: (1) the estimation of Hurst exponent (2) how to choose scaling range and (3) the goodness of fit. Especially removing steady climatology annual cycle would introduce an artificial crossover around one-year period in the DFA curve. The conclusion is verified by generating deterministic time series through Monte Carlo simulations.

  3. Impacts of inter-annual vegetation changes on climate simulation in HadGEM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, S.; Kang, H.; Byun, Y.; Lee, J.; Climate Modeling Team

    2010-12-01

    Recently, there have been a number of efforts that are geared towards understanding how vegetation variability, induced by inter-annual or inter-decadal climate variability can feedback onto the climate system. The Hadley Center Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) with tiled version of the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2 (MOSES 2.2), which has five plant functional types, is used to assess the impact of a vegetation inter-annual change on global climate and surface energy balance. Two AMIP-type integrations were performed with climatology and inter-annual varying vegetation fraction during the 20 years from 1980 to 2000 with observed sea surface temperature. Changes in surface climate including precipitation, surface heat fluxes and in atmospheric circulation due to time varying broadleaf, needle-leaf, and shrub (C3 and C4 grass) will be investigated.

  4. A view of annual water quality cycle and inter-annual variations in agricultural headwater catchment (Kervidy-Naizin, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aubert, A.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Merot, P.; Grimaldi, C.; Gruau, G.; Ruiz, L.

    2011-12-01

    Climatic conditions impact biotransformation and transfer of solutes. Therefore, they modify solute emissions in streams. Studying these modifications requires long term and detailed monitoring of both internal processes and river loads, which are rarely combined. The Kervidy-Naizin catchment, implemented in 1993, is part of the French network of catchment for environmental research (SOERE RBV, focused on the Critical Zone). It is an intensive agricultural catchment located in a temperate climate in Western France (Brittany) (Molenat et al., 2008; Morel et al., 2009). It presents shallow aquifers due to impervious bedrock. Both hydrology and water chemistry are monitored with a daily time step since 2000-01, as well as possible explanatory data (land use, meteorology, etc.). Concentrations in major anions in this catchment are extremely high, which make people call it a "saturated" catchment. We identified annual patterns for chloride, sulphate, dissolved organic and inorganic carbon and nitrate concentration variations. First, we considered the complete set of concentration data as function of the time. From that, we foresaw 3 cyclic temporal patterns. Then, from representing the concentrations as function of meteorological parameters, intra-annual hysteretic variations and their inter-annual variations were clearly identified. Our driving question is to know if and how climatic conditions are responsible for variations of the patterns in and between years. In winter, i.e. rainy and cold period, rainfall is closely linked to discharge because of a direct recharge to the shallow groundwater. Reversely, in transition periods (spring and fall) and hot periods, both rainfall and temperature influences discharge in relation to their range of variations. Moreover, biological processes, driven by temperature and wetness, also act during these periods. On the whole, we can emphasize the specificity of water chemistry patterns for each element. Noticeable differences

  5. Inter-annual plasticity of squid life history and population structure: ecological and management implications.

    PubMed

    Pecl, G T; Moltschaniwskyj, N A; Tracey, S R; Jordan, A R

    2004-05-01

    Population size and structure, as well as individual growth rates, condition, and reproductive output, respond to environmental factors, particularly in short-lived and fast-growing squid species. We need to understand the mechanisms through which populations respond to environmental conditions, to predict when or if established relationships, used as management tools to forecast recruitment strength, might break down completely. Identifying characteristics of successful recruits who have grown under different environmental scenarios may improve our understanding of the mechanistic connections between environmental conditions and the temporal variation in life history characteristics that ultimately affect recruitment. This 5-year study sought to determine the association between key life history characteristics of southern calamary Sepioteuthis australis (growth rate, body size, and patterns of repro-somatic energy allocation) and the environmental conditions experienced by individuals on the east coast of Tasmania, Australia. Among years, all population and individual parameters examined were highly variable, despite the environmental regime during the study not encompassing the extremes that may occur in this dynamic region. Temperature was not clearly associated with any of the individual or population differences observed. Populations of apparently similar abundance were composed of individuals with strikingly different biological characteristics, therefore seeking relationships between abundance and environmental parameters at gross levels did not shed light on the mechanisms responsible for population size. Importantly, inter-annual differences in squid size, condition, reproductive investment, and possibly growth rate, were sex-specific, indicating that males and females responded differently to similar factors. Among years differences in body size were extreme, both among the male component of the population and between genders. The relative importance of

  6. Effect of inter- and intra-annual thermohaline variability on acoustic propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Peter C.; McDonald, Colleen M.; Kucukosmanoglu, Murat; Judono, Albert; Margolina, Tetyana; Fan, Chenwu

    2017-05-01

    This paper is to answer the question "How can inter- and intra-annual variability in the ocean be leveraged by the submarine Force?" through quantifying inter- and intra-annual variability in (T, S) fields and in turn underwater acoustic characteristics such as transmission loss, signal excess, and range of detection. The Navy's Generalized Digital Environmental Model (GDEM) is the climatological monthly mean data and represents mean annual variability. An optimal spectral decomposition method is used to produce a synoptic monthly gridded (SMG) (T, S) dataset for the world oceans with 1° ×1° horizontal resolution, 28 vertical levels (surface to 3,000 m depth), monthly time increment from January 1945 to December 2014 now available at the NOAA/NCEI website: http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/cgibin/iso?id=gov.noaa.nodc:0140938. The sound velocity decreases from 1945 to 1975 and increases afterwards due to global climate change. Effect of the inter- and intra-annual (T, S) variability on acoustic propagation in the Yellow Sea is investigated using a well-developed acoustic model (Bellhop) in frequencies from 3.5 kHz to 5 kHz with sound velocity profile (SVP) calculated from GDEM and SMG datasets, various bottom types (silty clay, fine sand, gravelly mud, sandy mud, and cobble or gravel) from the NAVOCEANO`s High Frequency Environmental Algorithms (HFEVA), source and receiver depths. Acoustic propagation ranges are extended drastically due to the inter-annual variability in comparison with the climatological SVP (from GDEM). Submarines' vulnerability of detection as its depth varies and avoidance of short acoustic range due to inter-annual variability are also discussed.

  7. Soil moisture controls on inter-annual variability of biogenic isoprene emissions and ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tawfik, A. B.; Shalaby, A.; Steiner, A. L.; Zakey, A.

    2010-12-01

    Biogenic isoprene emissions directly respond to leaf temperature, photosynthetic active radiation, and soil moisture. These climate variables can be important for estimating biogenic emissions and their impact on interannual variability of ground-level ozone and secondary organic aerosol. Due to the non-linear relationship between temperature and soil moisture, observational data alone are not capable of quantifying each variable’s contribution to isoprene emissions. A process-based emissions model (the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature; MEGAN) is coupled to a regional climate and chemistry model (RegCM-CLM-CHEM) to assess the contributions of environmental variables controlling isoprene emissions on climatological time scales. A fully online simulation was performed from 1994-2008 where isoprene emissions respond at each land surface time step to all environmental variables. A first order Taylor expansion method was used to determine percent contribution to inter-annual isoprene variability from each environmental variable. In July, leaf temperature accounts for more than 65% of inter-annual variations in isoprene emissions over the Plains and the Great Lakes region. However, soil moisture variations tend to dominate controls on inter-annual variability for the southeastern U.S. (> 60%). Model simulations and observational data from the Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations (PAMS) are implemented to estimate the effects of drought on inter-annual variations of isoprene and ozone.

  8. Inter-annual variation in the foraging ecology of a brown bear population in southwest Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stricker, C. A.; Kovach, S. D.; Collins, G. H.; Farley, S. D.; Rye, R. O.; Hinkes, M. T.

    2010-12-01

    Brown bear (Ursus arctos) population size correlates with density of high-quality food resources. We report on a ten-year study (1993 - 2003) of brown bear nutritional ecology in southwestern Alaska during which changes in resource availability and density occurred. The diets of 21 female bears captured multiple years were characterized by stable isotope analysis (δ13C, δ15N, and δ34S) of guard hairs and putative diet items, followed by application of a Bayesian mixing model to derive assimilated diet estimates. Diet estimates were subsequently used to characterize individual-level resource specialization. Over the entire study period, salmon accounted for the highest proportion of bear diets (42.1%), followed by berries (24.5%), mammals (13.5%), freshwater fish (11.2%), and other plant matter (8.7%). The average salmon contribution to bear diets declined significantly from 48% to 34% following a precipitous reduction in salmon escapement mid-way through the study, after which the bear population shifted toward a more generalist diet. However, evaluation of individual animals recaptured multiple times during the study revealed variation in inter-annual dietary habits unrelated to the salmon crash. Individual variation presumably reflects local density changes in a variety of resources, with concomitant annual shifts in the degree of individual specialization. We also relate these patterns to other individual traits, such as reproductive status, home range, and habitat use to better constrain foraging habits. This study provides unique insights into the nutritional ecology of Alaskan brown bears and complements traditional wildlife studies by offering important covariates to better understand changes in population vital rates.

  9. Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheen, Katy; Smith, Doug; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Rowell, Dave; Vellinga, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability, and, with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (i.e. 5 years) timescales, and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate.

  10. Analyzing European Inter-Annual Sea Level Variability Using Tide Gauges and Altimetry.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjär, N.

    2003-12-01

    Along the European coasts, tide gauges have been used to monitor sea level for decades. For the last decade sea level have also been monitored by the T/P satellite altimeter at high spatial low temporal coverage . A comparative analysis of sea level from tide gauge and Topex/Poseidon (T/P) altimeter is an integral part of the European Sea Level Service - Research Infrastructure (ESEAS-RI) project. The seas around Europe are divided into sub basins, realizing that each basin has different characteristics, with regard to the dominant frequencies of the sea level heights, not least due to the physical configuration where narrow straits separates the basins (i.e. the Mediterranean, Baltic, Black Sea). Our analysis shows good agreement in the frequency response between tide gauges and T/P measurements, especially on timescales of 1-5 years. This holds for both closed basins and the open Northeast Atlantic Ocean. Despite their location on the basin margins, tide gauges capture the inter-annual variability on a wider spatial scale quite well. When analyzing long (50+ yrs) time series from tide gauges, it is evident, that the dominant frequencies within a basin changes over time. However, the frequency change patterns seems to be similar from basin to basin.

  11. Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

    PubMed Central

    Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

    2017-01-01

    Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. PMID:28541288

  12. Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheen, K. L.; Smith, D. M.; Dunstone, N. J.; Eade, R.; Rowell, D. P.; Vellinga, M.

    2017-05-01

    Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate.

  13. The impact of inter-annual variability in hydrodynamic conditions on plaice settlement success

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiessen, Meinard; Gerkema, Theo; Ruardij, Piet; van der Veer, Henk

    2014-05-01

    Using a hydrodynamic model coupled to a particle tracking routine, the impact of variability in hydrodynamic conditions on drifting plaice eggs and larvae and their successful settlement in nursery areas was studied. The life cycle of many marine fish species consists of various life stages: Spawning at open sea, pelagic egg and larval stages and often a juvenile stage bound to shallow water nursery grounds. Numerous studies have demonstrated that pelagic stages appear to be the most critical in determining ultimate year-class success, which holds true, for example, for European plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Plaice spawning grounds in the middle of the North Sea and in the English Channel are connected to juvenile nursery areas (such as the Wadden Sea) via (semi-)passive drift governed by residual currents. Field data from especially the Balgzand nursery area have shown a strong variability in the number of plaice juveniles settling there over the years. Changes to current patterns and water temperatures are expected to strongly contribute to this inter-annual variability in settlement success. Here, we investigate these effects on pelagic plaice drift and settlement using a coupled numerical model: A 3D hydrodynamic model (GETM) was used to produce hydrodynamic data at a high spatial and temporal resolution, for the years 1994 - 2005. This data was subsequently fed into a particle tracking routine (GITM), that computed the trajectories for a million particles (representing pelagic plaice) for each year. In order to focus on the physical processes, several biological contributions such as behaviour (vertical migration) and mortality were excluded from the simulations. Spawning periods and locations, drift durations, and settlement requirements were selected around known plaice characteristics. Results showed a strong inter-annual variability in the drift direction, drift duration and settlement success of the particles, as well as in the absolute number of

  14. Inter- and intra-annual patterns of Ulva prolifera green tides in the Yellow Sea during 2007-2009, their origin and relationship to the expansion of coastal seaweed aquaculture in China.

    PubMed

    Keesing, John K; Liu, Dongyan; Fearns, Peter; Garcia, Rodrigo

    2011-06-01

    The large green-tide events that occurred in the Yellow Sea in 2008 (3489km(2)) and 2009 (4994km(2)) are shown to be novel events preceded only once by a much smaller event in 2007 (82km(2)). The blooms originated in the coastal area of Jiangsu province and spread north-east towards the Shandong Peninsula. The blooms grew at different rates and mesoscale variability in surface winds explained the differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of blooms in 2008 and 2009. The 2009 bloom was tracked to its origin immediately offshore of extensive intertidal flats between Yancheng and Nantong where recent rapid expansion of Porphyra aquaculture has occurred. We review published hypotheses which have been advanced to explain the occurrence of blooms and in light of our findings, we conclude that the accumulation and disposal of waste Ulva prolifera from Porphyra aquaculture rafts is the most likely cause of the blooms. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Inter-annual Variability of Snowfall in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.

    2016-12-01

    Winter snowfall, particularly lake-effect snowfall, impacts all aspects of Michigan life in the wintertime, from motorsports and tourism to impacting the day-to-day lives of residents. Understanding the inter-annual variability of winter snowfall will provide sound basis for local community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to understand the trend in winter snowfall and the influencing factors of winter snowfall variability in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM) using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. Our study demonstrates that snowfall has significantly increased from 1932 to 2015. Correlation analysis suggests that regionally average air temperatures have a strong negative relationship with snowfall in LPM. On average, approximately 27% of inter-annual variability in snowfall can be explained by regionally average air temperatures. ENSO events are also negatively related to snowfall in LPM and can explain 8% of inter-annual variability. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not have strong influence on snowfall. Composite analysis demonstrates that on annual basis, more winter snowfall occurs during the years with higher maximum ice cover (MIC) than during the years with lower MIC in Lake Michigan. Higher MIC is often associated with lower air temperatures which are negatively related to winter snowfall. This study could provide insight on future snow related climate model improvement and weather forecasting.

  16. Inter-Annual Variation in Characteristics of Endozoochory by Wild Japanese Macaques

    PubMed Central

    Tsuji, Yamato

    2014-01-01

    Endozoochory is important to the dynamics and regeneration of forest ecosystems. Despite the universality of inter-annual variation in fruit production, few studies have addressed the sign (seed predation versus seed dispersal) and strength (frequency and quantity) of fruit-frugivore interaction and the effectiveness of endozoochory in response to the long-term temporal context. In this study I evaluated the characteristics of endozoochorous dispersal by wild Japanese macaques Macaca fuscata inhabiting deciduous forest in northern Japan for five different years. I collected 378 fecal samples from the macaques in fall (September to November) and quantified the proportion of feces containing seeds, number of seeds per fecal sample, ratio of intact seeds, and seed diversity. The proportion of feces containing seeds of any species (five-year mean: 85.9%, range: 78–97%) did not show significant inter-annual variation, while species-level proportions did. The intact ratio of seeds (mean: 83%, range: 61–98%) varied significantly both between years and between months, and this varied among dominant plant species. The number of seeds per fecal sample (mean: 78, range: 32–102) varied monthly but did not between years, and the seed diversity (mean: 0.66, range: 0.57–0.81) did not show significant inter-annual variation, both of which were attributed to longer duration of macaques’ gastro-intestinal passage time of seeds exceed their feeding bouts. This study demonstrated that frequency and success of seed dispersal over seed predation of macaque endozoochory showed inter-annual variation, indicating low specificity across the seed–macaque network. The temporal variability in the quality of seed dispersal may provide evidence of high resilience in response to fluctuating environmental conditions in the temperate forests. PMID:25272286

  17. Inter-annual variation in characteristics of endozoochory by wild Japanese macaques.

    PubMed

    Tsuji, Yamato

    2014-01-01

    Endozoochory is important to the dynamics and regeneration of forest ecosystems. Despite the universality of inter-annual variation in fruit production, few studies have addressed the sign (seed predation versus seed dispersal) and strength (frequency and quantity) of fruit-frugivore interaction and the effectiveness of endozoochory in response to the long-term temporal context. In this study I evaluated the characteristics of endozoochorous dispersal by wild Japanese macaques Macaca fuscata inhabiting deciduous forest in northern Japan for five different years. I collected 378 fecal samples from the macaques in fall (September to November) and quantified the proportion of feces containing seeds, number of seeds per fecal sample, ratio of intact seeds, and seed diversity. The proportion of feces containing seeds of any species (five-year mean: 85.9%, range: 78-97%) did not show significant inter-annual variation, while species-level proportions did. The intact ratio of seeds (mean: 83%, range: 61-98%) varied significantly both between years and between months, and this varied among dominant plant species. The number of seeds per fecal sample (mean: 78, range: 32-102) varied monthly but did not between years, and the seed diversity (mean: 0.66, range: 0.57-0.81) did not show significant inter-annual variation, both of which were attributed to longer duration of macaques' gastro-intestinal passage time of seeds exceed their feeding bouts. This study demonstrated that frequency and success of seed dispersal over seed predation of macaque endozoochory showed inter-annual variation, indicating low specificity across the seed-macaque network. The temporal variability in the quality of seed dispersal may provide evidence of high resilience in response to fluctuating environmental conditions in the temperate forests.

  18. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

    2016-03-01

    Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in

  19. Analysis of Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variability in Trans-Pacific Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2004-05-01

    We use the global Model of Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2) driven with NCEP winds to conduct a simulation from 1991-2002 of the transport of nine continental tracers with uniform emissions and 2-week lifetimes. The purpose of our analysis is to both evaluate the meteorological component of the inter-annual variability of trans-Pacific transport and to derive an algorithm by which we can predict the transport. For each regions emissions we first define average seasonal time-scales for transport in order to describe the average time necessary for each regional tracer to travel from its source to a location downwind. We next define a 'transport potential', the percentage of a tracer emitted from a region that is transported across a meridional plane in the Pacific, and an 'influence potential', the percentage of a tracer emitted from a region that enters into the boundary layer or free troposphere over the United States. These 'potentials' permit a quantification of the seasonal and inter-annual variability in transport of each regional tracer and their relative contribution to the composition of downwind air masses due to the variability of meteorology. Maximum trans-Pacific transport occurs in winter and spring. The East Asian and former Soviet Union regions have the largest transport potential across the Pacific and have the largest influence potential on the U.S. boundary layer composition while the European region is of secondary importance. East Asian and Indian tracers have the largest trans-Pacific transport potential and influence potential in the U.S. free troposphere. Transport and influence potentials are both larger in the free troposphere than in the boundary layer. Vertical subsidence over the continental U.S. is an important entry route for foreign tracers, particularly in winter. Focusing on the East Asian tracer we find that maximum transport occurs at approximately 40°N in the lower to mid-troposphere. Although significant inter-annual

  20. Inter-annual climate variability and productivity models for grapevines in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martinho, M.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Pinto, J. G.

    2009-09-01

    Grapevines are a major crop in Portugal, constituting an important source of income for local farmers. The Mediterranean type climate of the country strongly influences the growth and development of this crop, and ultimately the yield. Therefore, for several (9) Portuguese regions over 19 years (1986-2004), the inter-annual variability of grapevine productivity and climate data (mostly temperature and precipitation on a monthly basis) was analyzed in order to define mathematical models based on statistically significant correlations between those variables. One particular region (Vila Real, close to Demarcated Valley of Douro) was studied in more detail using the daily data available. For that purpose, a number of derived indices was calculated (e.g., number of days with positive minimum air temperature or maximum temperature above 25°C, number of days with precipitation higher than 10 mm). Close relationships between temperature, precipitation and relative air humidity were then found to influence productivity. In fact, a high-quality mathematical linear model based on these variables was found for Vila Real. Those analyses also enabled the verification of monthly climatic conditions, which are or not favorable for growth and development of grapevines; results indicate a clear relationship between the vegetative cycle of grapevines and their basic climatic requirements. After validation, this model may be used for predicting future yields in the region and, using data from an atmospheric model, it was also possible to project a future scenario for the productivity in the period (2030-2050), based on an specific emission scenario (A1B). Lastly, in order to isolate the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns most favorable/unfavorable to wine productivity, years with extremely high (e.g., 1989) and extremely low yields (e.g., 1987) were selected and the corresponding dynamical conditions were analyzed in more detail.

  1. Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, M.; Eaton, E. L.; Broadmeadow, M. S. J.; Morison, J. I. L.

    2012-12-01

    The carbon balance of an 80-yr-old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Great Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999-2010). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 486 g C m-2 yr-1 (95% CI of ±73 g C m-2 yr-1), and this was partitioned into a gross primary productivity (GPP) of 2034 ± 145 g C m-2 yr-1, over a 165 (±6) day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, Reco) of 1548 ± 122 g C m-2 yr-1. Although the maximum variation of NEP between years was large (333 g C m-2 yr-1), the ratio of Reco/GPP remained relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI). Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular weather events, such as low summer solar radiation and low soil moisture content (values below 30% by volume). The European-wide heat wave and drought of 2003 did not reduce the NEP of this woodland because of good water supply from the surface-water gley soil. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p < 0.001) was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP, which modified the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO2 uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO2 uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days respectively), annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these two years. Inter-annual variation in the sensitivity of Reco to temperature was found to be strongly related to summer soil moisture content. The eddy covariance estimates of NEP closely matched mensuration-based estimates, demonstrating that this forest

  2. Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have

  3. An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takao, S.; Yamano, H.; Sugihara, K.; Kumagai, N. H.; Fujii, M.; Yamanaka, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The poleward expansion of coral habitats has been observed along the Japanese coast since the 1930s. Previous modeling studies have projected a poleward expansion using decadal-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the coldest months. However, this poleward expansion could be affected by the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months, which has not been considered before. In this study, the simulated pattern of poleward expansion was compared between cases where coral mortality was considered based on the inter-annual variation of SST and the decadal-mean SST in the coldest months. Modeled monthly mean SSTs for historical and future global warming simulations from the most recent climate projection model (MIROC4h) were used. The poleward expansion of corals simulated by considering mortality based on the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months better reproduced the observed poleward expansion speed compared to the simulations without such a consideration. Our results show the importance of considering coral mortality based on the inter-annual variation of seawater temperature to produce a more realistic poleward expansion of coral habitats.

  4. Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

    PubMed Central

    Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

    2014-01-01

    The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

  5. Twenty years of high-resolution sea surface temperature imagery around Australia: inter-annual and annual variability.

    PubMed

    Foster, Scott D; Griffin, David A; Dunstan, Piers K

    2014-01-01

    The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale.

  6. Inter-annual variability in CMIP5 models and the mean biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polo, Irene; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Losada, Teresa; Villamayor, Julian

    2017-04-01

    Analysis of model systematic errors in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has generally focused on local processes and particular basins. Mean warm bias over the subtropical upwelling systems in coupled models are largely studied and local cloud cover, alongshore winds and ocean stratification are pointed out as the responsible processes. Mean errors may have impacts on the SST variability but this is less understood. In this study we investigate the relation between mean global bias and how models perform the variability at inter-anual time-scales. In order to understand the relation between bias and variability, we calculate the SST variability modes for the models and associated parameters are confronted with the mean bias among models, thus we conclude how realistic are the models in simulating the variability depending on the mean SST bias. Results suggest that models with cooler (warmer) that average SST mean bias over the southern hemisphere reproduce better (worse) the inter-annual El Nino Pacific variability. Unlike the Pacific, the skill for reproducing the inter-annual Atlantic Nino mode is related to SST over the southern ocean and this is more associated with the proper simulation of the Sta Helena high pressure system than the equatorial Atlantic oceanic thermocline. This work also emphasizes the importance of using the model bias for understanding processes operating in the SST variability.

  7. The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

    2009-12-01

    The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as

  8. Inter-annual Variability of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in Regenerating Tropical Dry Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, there are now more secondary forests regenerating following anthropogenic disturbance than primary forests. However, carbon dynamics in secondary tropical forests in general, and seasonally dry forests in particular, have not been as well studied as primary wet forests. Young, regenerating forests may be more sensitive to climatic variability than older forests because of their dynamic demographic rates. Similarly, seasonally dry tropical forests may be particularly sensitive to changes in precipitation, as tree growth is highly constrained by water availability. We examined how inter-annual variability in precipitation affected above-ground net primary productivity in chronosequences of dry forest in Costa Rica. Our sites included three forest cover types, whose distribution is linked to edaphic variation. Over our 6-yr dataset, annual rainfall varied from 1110 to 3040mm, with a 5-6 month dry season. ANPP ranged from 2.96 to 18.98 Mg ha-1 across sites that have been recovering for 7 to 67 years. Fine litter production dominated ANPP, and increased with forest age but not annual rainfall. By contrast, woody stem growth did not vary among forests that differed in age, but increased as a function of annual rainfall. These results differed by forest type. Lowland oak forests on low fertility soil had the lowest productivity and responses to rainfall, whereas forests on the highest fertility soils showed large increases in woody production with rainfall. Consistent with our expectation, younger forests on the intermediate soil type had higher variability in ANPP than older forests, but this was not significant for forests on the poor or high fertility soils. Our results highlight several important findings: 1) different components of ANPP vary in their responses to inter-annual variation in rainfall, 2) forest responses to climatic variability depend on species composition, which varies consistently with soil type in this landscape.

  9. An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

    2016-12-01

    The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

  10. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  11. Inter-annual precipitation fluctuations alter the responses of above- and belowground biomass to water and N enrichment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, D. L.; Lü, X. T.; Jiang, L. L.; Wu, H. F.; Miao, Y.; Kardol, P.

    2013-08-01

    Water availability has profound effects on plant growth and productivity in temperate and semi-arid grasslands. However, it remains unclear how variation of inter-annual precipitation by extreme rainfall events will alter the aboveground and belowground responses of plants, and how these responses may be contingent on N availability. In this study, we examined the interactive effects of inter-annual precipitation variation and N addition on aboveground and live fine root biomass of a semi-arid grassland in northern China for two consecutive years (2007 and 2008). Inter-annual variation in precipitation resulting mainly from the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in 2008 significantly affected above- and belowground plant biomass responses to water addition. In addition, variation of inter-annual precipitation by this extreme rainfall event suppressed plant responses to nitrogen addition and reduced the interaction effects between water and nitrogen addition. These effects of inter-annual precipitation fluctuation could be attributed to the negative influence of the extreme rainfall event on soil N and water availability, ultimately reducing plant rainfall use efficiency and nitrogen use efficiency. In conclusion, our results suggest ecosystem responses to water and N enrichment could be altered by inter-annual variation of precipitation regime caused by the naturally occurring extreme rainfall events.

  12. Hydrological niche separation explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.; Guan, K.

    2015-12-01

    Despite ample water supply, vegetation dynamics are subject to seasonal water stress in large fraction of tropical forests. These seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) account for over 40% of tropical forests, harbor high biodiversity, have large potential carbon sink due to forest recovery from human disturbance and also play a critical role in global carbon budget and inter-annual variations. Plants in this biome display notably diverse responses to seasonal and inter-annual variations of water availability, especially inter-specific variations in canopy seasonality and biomass growth. Current process-based dynamic vegetation models cannot represent these diversities and are shown to perform poorly on simulating drought responses of tropical forests, calling into question of their ability to accurately simulate future changes in SDTFs. Accumulated field observations, suggest that hydrological niche separation driven by coordinated plant functional traits is associated with plants' performance under drought. Yet, it remains not clear whether the physiology-level hydrological niche separation can explain the ecosystem-level diversity observed in SDTFs. Here, we test the theory with a model-data fusion approach. We implemented a new plant hydrodynamic module that is able to track leaf water potential at sub-daily scale in ED2 model. We further incorporated a hydrological niche separation scheme based on a meta-data analysis of key functional traits in SDTFs. Simulated ecological patterns with and without hydrological niche separation were then compared with remote-sensing and long-term field observations from an SDTF site in Palo Verde, Costa Rica. Using several numerical experiments, we specifically examine the following questions: (i) Whether hydrological niche separation can explain the diversity in canopy seasonality and biomass growth? (ii) How important are the yet uncertain belowground functional traits, especially root profile in determining canopy

  13. Atmospheric forcing controlling inter-annual nutrient dynamics in the open Gulf of Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehtoranta, Jouni; Savchuk, Oleg P.; Elken, Jüri; Dahlbo, Kim; Kuosa, Harri; Raateoja, Mika; Kauppila, Pirkko; Räike, Antti; Pitkänen, Heikki

    2017-07-01

    The loading of P into the Gulf of Finland has decreased markedly, but no overall trend in the concentration of P has been observed in the open Gulf, where the concentrations of both inorganic N and P still have a pronounced inter-annual variability. Our main aim was to study whether the internal processes driven by atmospheric forcing can explain the variation in the nutrient conditions in the Gulf during the period 1992-2014. We observed that the long-term salinity variation of the bottom water in the northern Baltic Proper controls that in the Gulf, and that the deep-water concentrations of oxygen and nutrients are significantly correlated between the basins. This imposes preconditions regarding how atmospheric forcing may influence deep water flows and stratification in the Gulf on a long-term scale. We found that over short timescales, winter winds in particular can control the in- and outflows of water and the vertical stratification and mixing, which to a large extent explained the inter-annual variation in the DIN and TP pools in the Gulf. We conclude that the inter-annual variation in the amounts, ratios, and spatial distribution of nutrients sets variable preconditions for the spring and potential blue-green algae blooms, and that internal processes were able to mask the effects of the P load reductions implemented across the whole Gulf. The transportation of P along the bottom from the northern Baltic Proper and its evident uplift in the Gulf highlights the fact that the nutrient reductions are also needed in the entire catchment of the Baltic Sea to improve the trophic status of the open Gulf.

  14. Inter-annual variability in atmospheric nitrous oxide over the past two decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, R. L.; Bousquet, P.; Chevallier, F.; Zaehle, S.; Bopp, L.; Dlugokencky, E.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations have been steadily increasing in the atmosphere over the past few decades at a rate of approximately 0.3% per year. This trend is of major concern as N2O is both a long-lived greenhouse gas and an Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS). This trend is largely due to the increased input of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to the environment, primarily in N-fertilizers. Before the widespread usage of N-fertilizers, the naturally occurring N2O source was approximately balanced by the atmospheric sink, that is, photochemical destruction in the stratosphere. Super-imposed on the atmospheric trend, is significant inter-annual variability (IAV), which is thought to be mainly determined by inter-annual variations in stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Using global N2O records since the late 1990's (when more than 50 stations are available worldwide), we found significant IAV in the N2O atmospheric growth-rate with a positive anomaly from 1998 to 1999 in the northern hemisphere and a negative anomaly in 2003 in Europe, North America and Asia. To test the influence of the inter-annual variations in emissions versus stratosphere-troposphere exchange on the observed growth-rate, we carried out simulations using the global circulation model, LMDZ4, which was driven using ECMWF reanalysis data and was coupled to emissions estimates from the global eco-system model, Orchidee O-CN and the ocean biogeochemistry model, PISCES, which were also driven by climate data.

  15. Inter-Annual Variation of Gravity Waves in the Arctic and Antarctic Winter Middle Atmosphere

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-01

    mls.jpl.nasa.gov (J.H. Jiang). www.elsevier.com/locate/asr Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 2418–2423 Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB...inter-annual variations, Fig. 4 plots hemispheric maps of stratospheric gravity wave J.H. Jiang et al. / Advances in Space Research 38 (2006) 2418–2423...MLS measurement days that went into this variance map. No UKMO wind data available at 80 km. 2420 J.H. Jiang et al. / Advances in Space Research 38

  16. Seasonal and inter-annual variation in ecosystem scale methane emission from a boreal fen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rinne, Janne; Li, Xuefei; Raivonen, Maarit; Peltola, Olli; Sallantaus, Tapani; Haapanala, Sami; Smolander, Sampo; Alekseychik, Pavel; Aurela, Mika; Korrensalo, Aino; Mammarella, Ivan; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Vesala, Timo

    2016-04-01

    Northern wetlands are one of the major sources of atmospheric methane. We have measured ecosystem scale methane emissions from a boreal fen continuously since 2005. The site is an oligotrophic fen in boreal vegetation zone situated in Siikaneva wetland complex in Southern Finland. The mean annual temperature in the area is 3.3°C and total annual precipitation 710 mm. We have conducted the methane emission measurements by the eddy covariance method. Additionally we have measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and sensible heat together with a suite of other environmental parameters. We have analyzed this data alongside with a model run with University of Helsinki methane model. The measured fluxes show generally highest methane emission in late summers coinciding with the highest temperatures in saturated peat zone. During winters the fluxes show small but detectable emission despite the snow and ice cover on the fen. More than 90% of the annual methane emission occurs in snow-free period. The methane emission and peat temperature are connected in exponential manner in seasonal scales, but methane emission does not show the expected behavior with water table. The lack of water table position dependence also contrasts with the spatial variation across microtopography. There is no systematic variation in sub-diurnal time scale. The general seasonal cycle in methane emission is captured well with the methane model. We will show how well the model reproduces the temperature and water table position dependencies observed. The annual methane emission is typically around 10 gC m-2. This is a significant part of the total carbon exchange between the fen and the atmosphere and about twice the estimated carbon loss by leaching from the fen area. The inter-annual variability in the methane emission is modest. The June-September methane emissions from different years, comprising most of the annual emission, correlates positively with peat temperature, but not with

  17. The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

  18. Inter-Annual Variability in Tropical Cirrus Extent Simulated with a Global Chemistry Transport Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köhler, M. O.; MacKenzie, A. R.; Horseman, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    The extent and variability of cirrus coverage can play an important role for the transport of trace constituents through the tropical tropopause layer into the stratosphere. This is due to direct radiative effects from cirrus clouds, their impact on local water vapour abundances in the UTLS region and due to chemical processes on the surface of ice crystals. We investigate the variability of tropical cirrus cloud coverage over a period of 10 years (2004-2014) and its correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index. We use a global 3D offline chemistry transport model (SLIMCAT-Cirrus), with a parameterization of cirrus clouds formed by homogeneous nucleation. We compare the model's ability to reproduce the inter-annual variability in tropical cirrus extent with remote sensing data from satellites as well as with in-situ observations from the NASA Global Hawk in the Pacific region as part of the ATTREX campaign. Impacts from cirrus on the vertical transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere in the tropics and its inter-annual variability can be diagnosed from the model results.

  19. Inter-annual maintenance of the fine-scale genetic structure in a biennial plant

    PubMed Central

    Valverde, Javier; Gómez, José María; García, Cristina; Sharbel, Timothy F.; Jiménez, María Noelia; Perfectti, Francisco

    2016-01-01

    Within plant populations, space-restricted gene movement, together with environmental heterogeneity, can result in a spatial variation in gene frequencies. In biennial plants, inter-annual flowering migrants can homogenize gene frequencies between consecutive cohorts. However, the actual impact of these migrants on spatial genetic variation remains unexplored. Here, we used 10 nuclear microsatellite and one plastid genetic marker to characterize the spatial genetic structure within two consecutive cohorts in a population of the biennial plant Erysimum mediohispanicum (Brassicaceae). We explored the maintenance of this structure between consecutive flowering cohorts at different levels of complexity, and investigated landscape effects on gene flow. We found that cohorts were not genetically differentiated and showed a spatial genetic structure defined by a negative genetic-spatial correlation at fine scale that varied in intensity with compass directions. This spatial genetic structure was maintained when comparing plants from different cohorts. Additionally, genotypes were consistently associated with environmental factors such as light availability and soil composition, but to a lesser extent compared with the spatial autocorrelation. We conclude that inter-annual migrants, in combination with limited seed dispersal and environmental heterogeneity, play a major role in shaping and maintaining the spatial genetic structure among cohorts in this biennial plant. PMID:27883087

  20. Inter-annual maintenance of the fine-scale genetic structure in a biennial plant.

    PubMed

    Valverde, Javier; Gómez, José María; García, Cristina; Sharbel, Timothy F; Jiménez, María Noelia; Perfectti, Francisco

    2016-11-24

    Within plant populations, space-restricted gene movement, together with environmental heterogeneity, can result in a spatial variation in gene frequencies. In biennial plants, inter-annual flowering migrants can homogenize gene frequencies between consecutive cohorts. However, the actual impact of these migrants on spatial genetic variation remains unexplored. Here, we used 10 nuclear microsatellite and one plastid genetic marker to characterize the spatial genetic structure within two consecutive cohorts in a population of the biennial plant Erysimum mediohispanicum (Brassicaceae). We explored the maintenance of this structure between consecutive flowering cohorts at different levels of complexity, and investigated landscape effects on gene flow. We found that cohorts were not genetically differentiated and showed a spatial genetic structure defined by a negative genetic-spatial correlation at fine scale that varied in intensity with compass directions. This spatial genetic structure was maintained when comparing plants from different cohorts. Additionally, genotypes were consistently associated with environmental factors such as light availability and soil composition, but to a lesser extent compared with the spatial autocorrelation. We conclude that inter-annual migrants, in combination with limited seed dispersal and environmental heterogeneity, play a major role in shaping and maintaining the spatial genetic structure among cohorts in this biennial plant.

  1. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of lower stratospheric age of air spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ploeger, Felix; Birner, Thomas

    2016-08-01

    Trace gas transport in the lower stratosphere is investigated by analysing seasonal and inter-annual variations of the age of air spectrum - the probability distribution of stratospheric transit times. Age spectra are obtained using the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) driven by ERA-Interim winds and total diabatic heating rates, and using a time-evolving boundary-impulse-response (BIER) method based on multiple tracer pulses. Seasonal age spectra show large deviations from an idealized stationary uni-modal shape. Multiple modes emerge in the spectrum throughout the stratosphere, strongest at high latitudes, caused by the interplay of seasonally varying tropical upward mass flux, stratospheric transport barriers and recirculation. Inter-annual variations in transport (e.g. quasi-biennial oscillation) cause significant modulations of the age spectrum shape. In fact, one particular QBO phase may determine the spectrum's mode during the following 2-3 years. Interpretation of the age spectrum in terms of transport contributions due to the residual circulation and mixing is generally not straightforward. It turns out that advection by the residual circulation represents the dominant pathway in the deep tropics and in the winter hemisphere extratropics above 500 K, controlling the modal age in these regions. In contrast, in the summer hemisphere, particularly in the lowermost stratosphere, mixing represents the most probable pathway controlling the modal age.

  2. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    PubMed

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  3. Inter-annual variation of carbon uptake by a plantation oak woodland in south-eastern England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, M.; Eaton, E. L.; Broadmeadow, M. S. J.; Morison, J. I. L.

    2012-07-01

    The carbon balance of an 80 yr old deciduous oak plantation in the temperate oceanic climate of the south-east of Britain was measured by eddy covariance over 12 yr (1999-2010). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was 486 g C m-2 y-1 (95% CI of ±73 g C m-2 y-1), and this was partitioned into a Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of 2034 ± 145 g C m-2 y-1, over a 165 (±6) day growing season, and an annual loss of carbon through respiration and decomposition (ecosystem respiration, Reco) of 1548 ± 122 g C m-2 y-1. The interannual variation of NEP was large (coefficient of variation (CV) 23%), although the variation for GPP and Reco was smaller (12%) and the ratio of Reco/GPP was relatively constant (0.76 ± 0.02 CI). Some anomalies in the annual patterns of the carbon balance could be linked to particular combinations of anomalous weather events, such as high summer air temperature and low soil moisture content. The Europe-wide heat-wave and drought of 2003 had little effect on the C balance of this woodland on a surface water gley soil. Annual variation in precipitation (CV 18%) was not a main factor in the variation in NEP. The inter-annual variation in estimated intercepted radiation only accounted for ~ 47% of the variation in GPP, although a significant relationship (p<0.001) was found between peak leaf area index and annual GPP which in turn played an important role in modifying the efficiency with which incident radiation was used in net CO2 uptake. Whilst the spring start and late autumn end of the net CO2 uptake period varied substantially (range of 24 and 27 days, respectively), annual GPP was not related to growing season length. Severe outbreaks of defoliating moth caterpillars, mostly Tortrix viridana L. and Operophtera brumata L., caused considerable damage to the forest canopy in 2009 and 2010, resulting in reduced GPP in these years.

  4. Modelling coastal connectivity in a Western Boundary Current: Seasonal and inter-annual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roughan, Moninya; Macdonald, Helen S.; Baird, Mark E.; Glasby, Tim M.

    2011-03-01

    Understanding the transport and distribution of marine larvae by ocean currents is one of the key goals of population ecology. Here we investigate circulation in the East Australian Current (EAC) and its impact on the transport of larvae and coastal connectivity. A series of Lagrangian particle trajectory experiments are conducted in summer and winter from 1992-2006 which enables us to investigate seasonal and inter-annual variability. We also estimate a mean connectivity state from the average of each of the individual realisations. Connectivity patterns are related to the movement of five individual larval species (two tropical, two temperate and one invasive species) and are found to be in qualitative agreement with historical distribution patterns found along the coast of SE Australia. We use a configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model to investigate physical processes in the ocean along the coast of SE Australia where the circulation is dominated by the EAC, a vigorous western boundary current. We assimilate hydrographic fields from a ˜10-km global analysis into a ˜3-km resolution continental shelf model to create a high-resolution hindcast of ocean state for each summer and winter from 1992-2006. Particles are released along the coast of SE Australia, and at various isobaths across the shelf (25-1000 m) over timescales ranging from 10-90 days. Upstream of the EAC separation point across-shelf release location dominates the particle trajectory length scales, whereas seasonality dominates in the southern half of the domain, downstream of the separation point. Lagrangian probability density functions show dispersion pathways vary with release latitude, distance offshore and the timescale of dispersion. Northern (southern) release sites are typified by maximum (minimum) dispersal pathways. Offshore release distance also plays a role having the greatest impact at the mid-latitude release sites. Maximum alongshore dispersion occurs at the mid-latitude release

  5. Identification of Diurnal, Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variability Across SE Asian Field Observations of key Water Cycle Variables: Rainfall, net Radiation, Total Evaporation and River Discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solera García, M. A.; Tych, W.; Chappell, N.

    2007-12-01

    The identification of periodic patterns in water cycle variables is critical to the understanding of land-atmosphere interactions, climate change and the evaluation of General Circulation Model (GCM) output. SE Asia in particular plays a very important role on the global climate because it is a large source of energy and water fluxes into the upper atmosphere. Cycle identification is carried out following the Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) philosophy, which focuses on the use of parsimonious, rigorous models which are characterised by lack of a priori assumptions, built in uncertainty analysis and final model acceptance dependent on the physical interpretation of the results. The DBM tool used here is the Unobserved Component - Dynamic Harmonic Regression (UC-DHR) model, which is a statistical method that allows the identification of variability in time series by introducing Time Variable Parameter (TVP) estimation of harmonic components. UC-DHR is not scale dependent and was thus applied to both hourly (to investigate diurnal variation) and fortnightly datasets (for intra- and inter-annual variability). The data used in the analysis has been gathered from existing catchment datasets for three regions of tropical SE Asia, namely Northern Thailand, Central Peninsular Malaysia and Northeast Borneo. These regions were chosen because they represent the hydro-climatic gradient (seasonal to equatorial) present within the tropics and because SE Asia has the most extensive set of catchment/plot studies within the humid tropics. Results show modeling tools were able to quantify the main patterns present in the observations throughout different time scales (diurnal, intra-annual and inter-annual) and the strength of the correlation pattern between the four hydro-climatic variables. The subsequent discussion focuses on the physical processes behind those patterns (e.g. diurnal variability caused by local convection due to solar heating; impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation

  6. Inter-annual variability in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions due to temperature anomalies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bréon, F.-M.; Boucher, O.; Brender, P.

    2017-07-01

    It is well known that short-term (i.e. interannual) variations in fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are closely related to the evolution of the national economies. Nevertheless, a fraction of the CO2 emissions are linked to domestic and business heating and cooling, which can be expected to be related to the meteorology, independently of the economy. Here, we analyse whether the signature of the inter-annual temperature anomalies is discernible in the time series of CO2 emissions at the country scale. Our analysis shows that, for many countries, there is a clear positive correlation between a heating-degree-person index and the component of the CO2 emissions that is not explained by the economy as quantified by the gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, several countries show a positive correlation between a cooling-degree-person (CDP) index and CO2 emissions. The slope of the linear relationship for heating is on the order of 0.5-1 kg CO2 (degree-day-person)-1 but with significant country-to-country variations. A similar relationship for cooling shows even greater diversity. We further show that the inter-annual climate anomalies have a small but significant impact on the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions, both at the national and global scale. Such a meteorological effect was a significant contribution to the rather small and unexpected global emission growth rate in 2014 while its contribution to the near zero emission growth in 2015 was insignificant.

  7. Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

    2014-12-01

    Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in

  8. Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5-day-planetary-waves in MLT observed by TIMED/SABER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yingying; Li, Huijun; Li, Chongyin; Zhang, Shaodong

    2017-04-01

    Annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DWs in 20-110 km, 52°S-52°N, 2002-2016 are studied by using v2.0 TIMED/SABER kinetic temperature data. Firstly, global annual variations of 6.5DW's spectral power and amplitudes are obtained. Strong wave amplitudes emerge in 30°S/N-50°S/N, and peaks in altitude separate in stratosphere (40-50 km), mesosphere (80-90 km) and the lower thermosphere (100-110 km), respectively. Their annual variations are similar in both hemispheres, but different in altitude. In 40-50 km, the annual maximums emerge mostly in winters: Dec.-Jan. in the NH and Jul.-Aug. in the SH. In MLT, annual peaks arise twice in each half of year. In 80-90 km, they're mainly in equinoctial seasons and winters: May, Aug.-Sep. and Jan. in the NH and Feb., Nov. and May in the SH. In 100-110 km, they emerge mainly in equinoctial seasons: Apr.-May and Aug.-Sep. in the NH and Feb.-Mar. and Oct.-Nov. in the SH. Then, inter-annual variations of 6.5DW amplitudes during the 14-year period are studied. Frequency spectra of monthly-mean amplitudes show that, main dynamics in long-term variations of 6.5DWs are AO and SAO in both hemispheres. Besides, QBO are visible in both hemispheres and 4-month period signals are noticed in the NH in MLT. Amplitudes of SAO, AO and QBO are obtained by bandpass filter. Their amplitudes are comparable in stratosphere and mesosphere, and QBO signals are weaker than the others in the LT. Vertical variations both of SAO and AO amplitudes are very stable. AO structures have little inter-annual changes, while inter-annual variations of SAO are significant and are related with 6.5DW. It means that annual and inter-annual variations of 6.5DW are mainly controlled by AO and SAO, respectively. Although QBO signals are weaker and their variations are less regular than AO and SAO, their phases seems to relate with inter-annual variations of 6.5DW as well.

  9. Inter-species and intra-annual variations of moss nitrogen utilization: Implications for nitrogen deposition assessment.

    PubMed

    Dong, Yu-Ping; Liu, Xue-Yan; Sun, Xin-Chao; Song, Wei; Zheng, Xu-Dong; Li, Rui; Liu, Cong-Qiang

    2017-07-07

    Moss nitrogen (N) concentrations and natural (15)N abundance (δ(15)N values) have been widely employed to evaluate annual levels and major sources of atmospheric N deposition. However, different moss species and one-off sampling were often used among extant studies, it remains unclear whether moss N parameters differ with species and different samplings, which prevented more accurate assessment of N deposition via moss survey. Here concentrations, isotopic ratios of bulk carbon (C) and bulk N in natural epilithic mosses (Bryum argenteum, Eurohypnum leptothallum, Haplocladium microphyllum and Hypnum plumaeforme) were measured monthly from August 2006 to August 2007 at Guiyang, SW China. The H. plumaeforme had significantly (P < 0.05) lower bulk N concentrations and higher δ(13)C values than other species. Moss N concentrations were significantly (P < 0.05) lower in warmer months than in cooler months, while moss δ(13)C values exhibited an opposite pattern. The variance component analyses showed that different species contributed more variations of moss N concentrations and δ(13)C values than different samplings. Differently, δ(15)N values did not differ significantly between moss species, and its variance mainly reflected variations of assimilated N sources, with ammonium as the dominant contributor. These results unambiguously reveal the influence of inter-species and intra-annual variations of moss N utilization on N deposition assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

    PubMed

    Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

    2014-10-01

    Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

  11. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  12. Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

    PubMed Central

    Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  13. Inter-annual variation of threshold wind speed for dust emission in Mongolia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurosaki, Y.; Shinoda, M.; Sokolik, I.; Mikami, M.

    2009-04-01

    Threshold wind speed for dust emission, which is the minimum wind speed required to lift dust particles into the atmosphere, largely varies according to land-cover and land-use changes (LCLUC) (e.g., soil wetness, vegetation cover, snow cover, soil freeze, cultivation, grazing). This means that we can recognize the variation of threshold speed as an index of LCLUC. Moreover, well recognition of the relation between LCLUC and variations of threshold speed contributes improvements of numerical dust models, which have been utilized for the evaluation of the impact of aeolian dust on climate. The threshold speed has been parameterized on the basis of laboratory experiments using wind tunnels and in-situ observations. These experiments have a very big advantage in the direct measurement of threshold speed. However, a disadvantage is that laboratory experiments can be carried out only in ideal conditions and in-situ observations can be done in finite places and periods, although land surface conditions exhibit great spatial and temporal variabilities that cannot be covered by such experiments. This study will present inter-annual variations of threshold speed in Mongolia, where considerable inter-annual LCLUC has been reported due to climatic change such as drought and rapid temperature growth by global warming and human activities such as overgrazing. We estimated threshold speeds by the statistical method in Kurosaki and Mikami (2007) using synoptic meteorological data. So far we obtained a result that threshold speeds on April have gradually declined from 1970s to 2000s in southern Mongolia. We will discuss these variations with LCLUC. Kurosaki, Y., and M. Mikami (2007), Threshold wind speed for dust emission in east Asia and its seasonal variations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17202, doi:10.1029/2006JD007988.

  14. Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations of snow cover duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choler, P.

    2015-02-01

    A remote sensing approach is used to examine the direct and indirect effects of snow cover duration and weather conditions on the growth response of mountain grasslands located above the tree line in the French Alps. Time-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIint), used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13 year long time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS). A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN-Crocus-MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligeable impact on NDVIint as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two thirds of NDVIint and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVIint to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snow-free period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

  15. Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choler, P.

    2015-06-01

    A remote sensing approach is used to examine the direct and indirect effects of snow cover duration and weather conditions on the growth response of mountain grasslands located above the tree line in the French Alps. Time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIint), used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13-year long time series of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN-CROCUS-MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligible impact on NDVIint as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two-thirds of NDVIint and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVIint to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snow-free period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

  16. Inter-annual variability of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in Med-CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vittoria Struglia, Maria; Adani, Mario; Carillo, Adriana; Pisacane, Giovanna; Sannino, Gianmaria; Beuvier, Jonathan; Lovato, Tomas; Sevault, Florence; Vervatis, Vassilios

    2016-04-01

    Recent atmospheric reanalysis products, such as ERA40 and ERA-interim, and their regional dynamical downscaling prompted the HyMeX/Med-CORDEX community to perform hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea, giving the opportunity to evaluate the response of different ocean models to a realistic inter-annual atmospheric forcing. Ocean numerical modeling studies have been steadily improving over the last decade through hind-cast processing, and are complementary to observations in studying the relative importance of the mechanisms playing a role in ocean variability, either external forcing or internal ocean variability. This work presents a review and an inter-comparison of the most recent hind-cast simulations of the Mediterranean Sea Circulation, produced in the framework of the Med-CORDEX initiative, at resolutions spanning from 1/8° to 1/16°. The richness of the simulations available for this study is exploited to address the effects of increasing resolution, both of models and forcing, the initialization procedure, and the prescription of the atmospheric boundary conditions, which are particularly relevant in order to model a realistic THC, in the perspective of fully coupled regional ocean-atmosphere models. The mean circulation is well reproduced by all the simulations. However, it can be observed that the horizontal resolution of both atmospheric forcing and ocean model plays a fundamental role in the reproduction of some specific features of both sub-basins and important differences can be observed among low and high resolution atmosphere forcing. We analyze the mean circulation on both the long-term and decadal time scale, and the represented inter-annual variability of intermediate and deep water mass formation processes in both the Eastern and Western sub-basins, finding that models agree with observations in correspondence of specific events, such as the 1992-1993 Eastern Mediterranean Transient, and the 2005-2006 event in the Gulf of Lion. Long

  17. QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.

    2004-01-01

    We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

  18. Inter- and intra-annual variations of clumping index derived from the MODIS BRDF product

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Liming; Liu, Jane; Chen, Jing M.; Croft, Holly; Wang, Rong; Sprintsin, Michael; Zheng, Ting; Ryu, Youngryel; Pisek, Jan; Gonsamo, Alemu; Deng, Feng; Zhang, Yongqin

    2016-02-01

    Clumping index quantifies the level of foliage aggregation, relative to a random distribution, and is a key structural parameter of plant canopies and is widely used in ecological and meteorological models. In this study, the inter- and intra-annual variations in clumping index values, derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) BRDF product, are investigated at six forest sites, including conifer forests, a mixed deciduous forest and an oak-savanna system. We find that the clumping index displays large seasonal variation, particularly for the deciduous sites, with the magnitude in clumping index values at each site comparable on an intra-annual basis, and the seasonality of clumping index well captured after noise removal. For broadleaved and mixed forest sites, minimum clumping index values are usually found during the season when leaf area index is at its maximum. The magnitude of MODIS clumping index is validated by ground data collected from 17 sites. Validation shows that the MODIS clumping index can explain 75% of variance in measured values (bias = 0.03 and rmse = 0.08), although with a narrower amplitude in variation. This study suggests that the MODIS BRDF product has the potential to produce good seasonal trajectories of clumping index values, but with an improved estimation of background reflectance.

  19. QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.

    2004-01-01

    We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the mesosphere significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates near the equator a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m / s at 30 Ism. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms are discussed that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide.

  20. QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.

    2004-01-01

    We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

  1. Immune function in a free-living bird varies over the annual cycle, but seasonal patterns differ between years.

    PubMed

    Hegemann, Arne; Matson, Kevin D; Both, Christiaan; Tieleman, B Irene

    2012-11-01

    A central hypothesis of eco-immunology proposes trade-offs between immune defences and competing physiological and behavioural processes, leading to immunological variation within and among annual-cycle stages, as has been revealed for some species. However, few studies have simultaneously investigated patterns of multiple immune indices over the entire annual cycle in free-living birds, and none has investigated the consistency of seasonal patterns across multiple years. We quantified lysis, agglutination, haptoglobin, leukocyte profiles, and body mass in free-living skylarks (Alauda arvensis) through two complete annual cycles and within and between four breeding seasons. The skylarks' annual cycle is characterised by annually repeated changes in energy and time budgets, social structure and diet. If trade-offs relating to these cyclic changes shape evolution, predictable intra-annual immune patterns may result. Alternatively, intra-annual immune patterns may vary among years if fluctuating environmental changes affect the cost-benefit balances of immune function. We found significant variation in immune indices and body mass across the annual cycle, and these patterns differed between years. Immune parameters differed between four breeding seasons, and in all years, lysis and agglutination increased as the season progressed independent of average levels. Population-level patterns (intra-annual, inter-annual, within breeding season) were consistent with within-individual patterns based on repeated measurements. We found little evidence for sex differences, and only haptoglobin was correlated (negatively) with body mass. We conclude that immune modulation is not simply a pre-programmed phenomenon that reflects predictable ecological changes. Instead, fluctuating environmental conditions that vary among years likely contribute to the immunological variation that we observed.

  2. Impact of inter-annual climatic variability on ecosystem carbon exchange in two grazed temperate grasslands with contrasting drainage regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choncubhair, Órlaith Ní; Humphreys, James; Lanigan, Gary

    2014-05-01

    Temperate grasslands constitute over 30% of the Earth's naturally-occurring biomes and make an important contribution towards the partial mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by terrestrial ecosystems. Accumulation of carbon (C) in grassland systems predominantly takes place in below-ground repositories, enhanced by the presence of a stable soil environment with low carbon turnover rates, active rhizodeposition and high levels of residue and organic inputs. Predicted future warming is expected to increase productivity in temperate zones, thereby enhancing rates of terrestrial carbon sequestration. However, the susceptibility of many ecosystems, including grasslands, to extreme climatic events and inter-annual variability has been demonstrated previously. Temperature anomalies as well as modifications in the temporal pattern and quantity of precipitation alter the balance between carbon uptake and release processes and a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem response to such changes is still lacking. In the present study, the impact of extreme inter-annual variability in summer rainfall and temperature on carbon dynamics in two rotationally-grazed grasslands in Ireland was examined. The sites experience similar temperate climatic regimes but differ in soil drainage characteristics. Eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange of carbon were complemented by regular assessment of standing biomass, leaf cover, harvest exports and organic amendment inputs. The summers of 2012 and 2013 showed contrasting climatic conditions, with summer precipitation 93% higher and 25% lower respectively than long-term means. In addition, soil temperatures were 7% lower and 11% higher than expected. Cool, wet conditions in 2012 facilitated net carbon uptake for more than ten months of the year at the poorly-drained site, however the ecosystem switched to a net source of carbon in 2013 during months with significantly reduced rainfall. In contrast, net C

  3. Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: The Australian case

    Treesearch

    Grant J. Williamson; Lynda D. Prior; Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane; Brett P. Murphy; David M. J. S. Bowman

    2016-01-01

    Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-...

  4. Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

    Treesearch

    Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

  5. Annual snowpack patterns across the Rockies: Long-term trends and associated 500-mb synoptic patterns

    SciTech Connect

    Changnon, D. ); McKee, T.B.; Doesken, N.J. )

    1993-03-01

    Winter snowpack was investigated to determine spatial and temporal climate variability in a five-state region (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming) in the northern Rocky Mountains, covering the period 1951-1985. Annual 1 April snowpack (SN) measurements were selected for analyses. Three basic and persistent patterns of annual SN values surfaced: years with a consistent anomaly over the entire region (wet or dry); years with a distinct north-to-south gradient; and average years. Nearly 90% of the nonaverage annual SN patterns were explained by the frequency of seven 500-mb winter synoptic patterns. The wet-north-dry-south gradient SN patterns occurred only before 1974, and the dry-north-wet-south gradient southern areas of the five-state region are due to periods when one of the two north-to-south gradient SN patterns occurred and are explained by the changes in the frequency of synoptic patterns. 20 refs., 19 figs., 6 tabs.

  6. Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

    2014-03-01

    Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of

  7. East Asian Monsoon controls on the inter-annual variability in precipitation isotope ratio in Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurita, N.; Fujiyoshi, Y.; Nakayama, T.; Matsumi, Y.; Kitagawa, H.

    2015-02-01

    To elucidate the mechanism for how the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) variability have influenced the isotope proxy records in Japan, we explore the primary driver of variations of precipitation isotopes at multiple temporal scales (event, seasonal and inter-annual scales). Using a new 1-year record of the isotopic composition of event-based precipitation and continuous near-surface water vapor at Nagoya in central Japan, we identify the key atmospheric processes controlling the storm-to-storm isotopic variations through an analysis of air mass sources and rainout history during the transport of moisture to the site, and then apply the identified processes to explain the inter-annual isotopic variability related to the EAM variability in the historical 17-year long Tokyo station record in the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP). In the summer, southerly flows transport moisture with higher isotopic values from subtropical marine regions and bring warm rainfall enriched with heavy isotopes. The weak monsoon summer corresponds to enriched isotopic values in precipitation, reflecting higher contribution of warm rainfall to the total summer precipitation. In the strong monsoon summer, the sustaining Baiu rainband along the southern coast of Japan prevents moisture transport across Japan, so that the contribution of warm rainfall is reduced. In the winter, storm tracks are the dominant driver of storm-to-storm isotopic variation and relatively low isotopic values occur when a cold frontal rainband associated with extratropical cyclones passes off to the south of the Japan coast. The weak monsoon winter is characterized by lower isotopes in precipitation, due to the distribution of the cyclone tracks away from the southern coast of Japan. In contrast, the northward shift of the cyclone tracks and stronger development of cyclones during the strong monsoon winters decrease the contribution of cold frontal precipitation, resulting in higher isotopic values in

  8. Rice Area Inter Annual Variation through a Remote Sensing Based Mapping Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elshorbagy, A. M.; Imam, E. H.; Nour, M. H.

    2013-10-01

    Rice is the main water-consuming crop planted in Egypt Delta. Constrained with the limited water resources, mapping rice is essential for any better water resources management. Xiao (2005) developed an algorithm for rice mapping by studying the dynamics of three vegetation indices the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and the Land surface water index (LSWI). Rice main differentiating feature is being planted in flooded land. Thus moisture sensitive index like LSWI will temporally exceed the EVI or the NDVI signalling rice transplanting. Xiao (2005) utilized MODIS free satellite imagery (500 m spatial resolution). However its coarse resolution combined with the Egyptian complex landscape raised the need for the algorithm modification. In this piece of work a low - cost rice mapping algorithm was developed. The multi resolution (MODIS 250 m red and near infrared bands) and (MODIS 500 m - shortwave infrared and blue bands) were utilized. The arable land was mapped through the utilization of the NDVI and applying it on MODIS 250 m (fine spatial resolution) scenes. The MODIS fine temporal resolution (MOD09A1 product) was utilized to study the LSWI, NDVI and EVI dynamics throughout the rice planting season. The non-arable land from MODIS 250 m was then used to refine the rice area calculated from the MODIS 500 m imagery. The algorithm was applied on the Egypt delta region in years 2008, 2009, and 2010. The mapped rice areas were enhanced from the MODIS 250 m arable mapping module and the results of the algorithm were validated against annual areas reports. There was good agreement between the estimated areas from the algorithm and the reports. Inter annual variation in rice areas was successfully mapped. In addition, the rice area and probable transplanting dates conforms to local planting practices. The findings of this study indicate that the algorithm can be used for rice mapping on a timely and frequent manner.

  9. Seasonal and inter-annual turbidity variability in the Río de la Plata from 15 years of MODIS: El Niño dilution effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dogliotti, A. I.; Ruddick, K.; Guerrero, R.

    2016-12-01

    Spatio-temporal variability of turbidity in the Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary (Argentina) at seasonal and inter-annual timescales is analyzed from 15 years (2000-2014) of MODIS data and explained in terms of river discharges and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Satellite estimates were first validated using in situ turbidity measurements and then the time series of monthly averages were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of turbidity. A strong seasonal variability was found in the upper and middle estuary with high turbidity from March to May and low turbidity from June to January. It was found that this variability is highly correlated to the seasonal cycle of the water discharge of the Bermejo river with a one-month delay between its peak and turbidity in the upper RdP estuary. On inter-annual time scales the influence of ENSO shows low turbidity amplitudes in the upper and middle estuary during moderate El Niño years, while the opposite pattern is observed in some La Niña years. A dilution effect during El Niño years is observed given that the main tributaries, which provide ∼92% of the liquid discharge, show water discharge increases due to excess in rain, while the Bermejo river, which provides ∼70% of the solid discharge and only 2% of the liquid discharge to the RdP, does not show this inter-decadal periodicity. In turn, increased turbidities are observed when negative RdP water discharge anomalies occurred, but this is not always related to La Niña events, since these events are not the only predictor for drought in this region.

  10. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

  11. Inter-annual to inter-decadal streamflow variability in Quebec and Ontario in relation to dominant large-scale climate indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nalley, D.; Adamowski, J.; Khalil, B.; Biswas, A.

    2016-05-01

    The impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on hydrological systems and their variability have been documented in different parts of the world. Since hydroclimatic data are known to exhibit non-stationary characteristics, spectral analyses such as wavelet transforms are very useful in extracting time-frequency information from such data. As Canadian studies, particularly those of regions east of the Prairies, using wavelet transform-based methods to draw links between relevant climate indices [e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] and streamflow variability are not common, this study aims to analyze such relationships for the southern regions of Quebec and Ontario. Monthly and annual streamflow data with a record length of 55 years were used to capture streamflow variability at intra-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. The continuous wavelet transform spectra of monthly streamflow data revealed consistent significant 6- and 12-month periodicities, which are likely associated with strong seasonality factors. Its annual counterparts showed four different significant periodicities: up to 4 years, 4-6 years, 6-8 years, and greater than 8 years - all of which occurred after the late 1960s/early 1970s. Wavelet coherence analyses show that the influence of ENSO and NAO at the inter-annual scale occurs at 2-6 year periodicities, and the influence of PDO occur at periodicities up to 8 years and exceeding 16 years. Correlations between these climate indices and streamflow were computed to determine the time delay of streamflow response to the influence of ENSO, NAO, and PDO. The lag times ranged from 6-48 months (for monthly data) and 1-4 years (for annual data). This research contributes to our understanding of streamflow variability over the southern parts of Quebec and Ontario, and the role of ENSO, NAO, and PDO phenomena on this variability. These relationships can

  12. Energetic particle induced inter-annual variability of ozone inside the Antarctic polar vortex observed in satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fytterer, T.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Nieder, H.; Pérot, K.; Sinnhuber, M.; Stiller, G.; Urban, J.

    2014-12-01

    Measurements from 2002-2011 by three independent satellite instruments, namely MIPAS, SABER, and SMR on board the ENVISAT, TIMED, and Odin satellites are used to investigate the inter-annual variability of stratospheric and mesospheric O3 volume mixing ratio (vmr) inside the Antarctic polar vortex due to solar and geomagnetic activity. In this study, we individually analysed the relative O3 vmr variations between maximum and minimum conditions of a number of solar and geomagnetic indices (F10.7 cm solar radio flux, Ap index, ≥ 2 MeV electron flux). The indices are 26 day averages centred at 1 April, 1 May, and 1 June while O3 is based on 26 day running means from 1 April-1 November at altitudes from 20-70 km. During solar quiet time from 2005-2010, the composite of all three instruments reveals an apparent negative O3 feedback associated to the geomagnetic activity (Ap index) around 1 April, on average reaching amplitudes between -5 and -10% of the respective O3 background. The O3 response exceeds the significance level of 95% and propagates downwards throughout the polar winter from the stratopause down to ∼ 25 km. These observed results are in good qualitative agreement with the O3 vmr pattern simulated with a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model, which includes particle impact ionisation.

  13. Inter-provincial migration in Spain: temporal trends and age-specific patterns.

    PubMed

    Garcia Coll, A; Stillwell, J

    1999-01-01

    "This paper provides interpretation of the changing patterns of internal migration in Spain at the inter-provincial scale, and new analysis of age-specific migration during the 1980s using a 10% sample of anonymised records from the 1991 census. Schedules of age-specific gross migration rates are constructed and classified according to their shape and level relative to the national schedule, and the relationships between in-migration and out-migration rates are examined for four selected age groups to demonstrate how aggregate patterns of inter-provincial migration conceal a wide diversity of age specific experience."

  14. Inter-Annual and Decadal Changes in Tropospheric and Stratospheric Ozone

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziemke, Jr. R.; Chandra, S.

    2011-01-01

    Ozone data beginning October 2004 from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are used to evaluate the accuracy of the Cloud slicing technique in effort to develop long data records of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and studying their long-term changes. Using this technique, we have produced a 32-year (1979-2010) long record of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from the combined Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (Toms) and OMI. The analyses of these time series suggest that the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant source of inter-annual changes of 30-40 Dobson Units (DU). Tropospheric ozone also indicates a QBO signal in the peak to peak changes varying from 2 to 7 DU. Decadal changes in global stratospheric ozone indicate a turnaround in ozone loss around mid 1990's with most of these changes occurring in the Northern Hemisphere from the subtropics to high latitudes. The trend results are generally consistent with the prediction of chemistry climate models which include the reduction of ozone destroying substances beginning in the late 1980's mandated by the Montreal Protocol.

  15. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of lake surface area in Mongolia during 2000-2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, S.; Do, N.

    2012-12-01

    Mongolia is a land-locked country, mainly comprised of arid and semi-arid environment with limited water resource. In conjunction with increased air temperature, decreased precipitation during the last decade can exert adverse effect on water resource of Mongolia. In this study, we investigated temporal changes of lake surface area from 2000 to 2011 by using MODIS 250m NDVI dataset. For the study sites, approximately, one hundred lakes with lake area greater than 6.25 km2 (i.e. 10-by-10 NDVI pixels) were selected across Mongolia. The 16-day interval timeseries of NDVI subset of each lake were extracted to investigate temporal changes in lake surface area. Our results show that the lake area decreased (r2=0.26) in overall for the period from 2000 to 2011, but with remarkable range of seasonal variability. One-third of the lakes, however, showed the increased trend in lake surface area during the period. Number of dried-up lakes generally increased for the period but with considerable inter-annual variation. The lakes showing increased lake area were distributed mainly in high mountainous regions. In seasonal variation, springtime recharge and summertime reduction of lake area were distinct in most lakes investigated in this study. It was addressed the relationships of lake area change with precipitation and temperature change, and effect of anthropogenic water use by livestock, mining activity, and urbanization, and relevance of permafrost dynamics with the lake area change in northern high mountainous regions.

  16. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern Gulf of Mexico (1966-1976)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela; Salas-Monreal, David; Riveron-Enzastiga, Mayra Lorena; Sánchez-Santillan, Norma Leticia

    2006-04-01

    Hourly time series at seven locations throughout the southern Gulf of Mexico were used to calculate the trend and the inter-annual sea level. The sea level series from January 1966 to December 1976 were filtered using a Lanczos low pass filter to remove oscillations with periods smaller than one year. The results revealed a sea level increment of about 1.4 mm yr-1 from 1966 to 1976 in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The monthly sea level variability obtained after the trends were removed, presented a sea level setup during winter and a sea level depression in summer attributed to seasonal wind conditions. The horizontal representation of averaged sea level in the southern Gulf of Mexico presented a saddle critical point. The associated sea level slope indicated water accumulation at Ciudad Madero in the western side of the gulf and Coatzacoalcos in the southernmost station, and sea level depressions at Tuxpan and Progreso in the southwestern and southeastern side of the gulf, respectively. Nevertheless, one of the most intriguing result is the presence of a Kelvin wave with a two mode oscillation axis that goes from Progreso to Tuxpan.

  17. Inter- annual variability of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station using Microwave Radiometer observations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renju, Ramachandran Pillai; Uma, K. N.; Krishna Moorthy, K.; Mathew, Nizy; Raju C, Suresh

    The south-western region of the Indian peninsula is the gateway of Indian summer monsoon. This region experiences continuous monsoon rain for a longer period of about six months from June to November. The amount of water vapor variability is one of the important parameters to study the onset, active and break phases of the monsoon. Keeping this in view, a multi-frequency Microwave Radiometer Profiler (MRP) has been made operational for continuous measurements of water vapor over an equatorial coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (8.5(°) N, 76.9(°) E) since April 2010. The MRP estimated precipitable water vapor (PWV) for different seasons including monsoon periods have been evaluated by comparing with the collocated GPS derived water vapor and radiosonde measurements. The diurnal, seasonal and inter annual variation of water vapor has been studied for the last four years (2010-2013) over this station. The significant diurnal variability of water vapor is found only during the winter and pre-monsoon periods (Dec -April). The vertical distribution of water vapour is studied in order to understand its variability especially during the onset of monsoon. During the building up of south-west monsoon, the specific humidity increases to ˜ 10g/kg in the altitude range of 4-6 km and consistently maintained it throughout the active spells and reduces to below 2g/kg during break spells of monsoon. The instrument details and the results will be presented.

  18. Inter-annual variations of CO2 observed by commercial airliner in the CONTRAIL project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawa, Yousuke; Machida, Toshinobu; Matsueda, Hidekazu; Niwa, Yosuke; Umezawa, Taku

    2016-04-01

    Since 2005, we have conducted an observation program for greenhouse gases using the passenger aircraft of the Japan Airlines named Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL). Over the past 10 years, successful operation of Continuous CO2 Measuring Equipment (CME) has delivered more than 6 million in-situ CO2 data from about 12000 flights between Japan and Europe, Australia, North America, or Asia. The large number of CME data enable us to well characterize spatial distributions and seasonal changes of CO2 in wide regions of the globe especially the Asia-Pacific regions. While the mean growth rates for the past 10 years were about 2 ppm/year, large growth rates of about 3 ppm/year were found in the wide latitudinal bands from 30S to 70N from the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2013. The multiyear data sets have the potential to help understand the global/regional CO2 budget. One good example is the significant inter-annual difference in CO2 vertical profiles observed over Singapore between October 2014 and October 2015, which is attributable to the massive biomass burnings in Indonesia in 2015.

  19. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of community metabolism rates of a Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Champenois, W.; Borges, A. V.

    2012-04-01

    We report gross primary production (GPP), community respiration (CR), and net community production (NCP) over Posidonia oceanica meadow at 10 m in Corsica (Bay of Revellata) based on the open water O2 mass balance from a data-set of hourly measurements with an array of three O2 optodes deployed from August 2006 to October 2009. The method was checked by comparison with discrete measurements of metabolic rates derived from benthic chamber incubations also based on the diel change of O2. This comparison was satisfactory and actually highlights the potential caveats of benthic incubation measurements related to O2 accumulation in small chambers leading to photorespiration, and an under-estimation of GPP. Our data confirmed previous P. oceanica meadows GPP and CR values, strong seasonal variations, and net autotrophy. High resolution data revealed strong inter-annual variability, with a decrease of GPP by 35% and NCP by 87% during 2006-2007 characterized by a mild and less stormy winter compared 2007-2008 and 2008-2009. P. oceanica meadows are then expected to decrease export of organic carbon to adjacent communities (decrease of NCP), since a decrease in frequency and intensity of marine storms is expected in future in the Mediterranean Sea, due to a northward shift of the Atlantic storm track.

  20. Global and regional methane budget and its inter-annual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourakkadi, Zakia; Payan, Sébastien; Locatelli, Robin; Chevallier, Frederic; Saunois, Marielle; Bousquet, Philippe

    2016-04-01

    Methane global concentration has more than doubled since the pre-industrial times. This increase is generally caused by the anthropogenic activities like the massive use and extraction of fossil fuel, rice paddies agriculture and emissions from landfills. Space observations are very useful to monitor and quantify methane concentration in the atmosphere, in order to improve our knowledge of its sources, sinks, transport and trends. Since 2002 global methane total-columns mixing ratois from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric ChartographY (SCIAMACHY) on board ENVISAT was the first space-borne sensitive to methane in the boundary layer. However the communication with the instrument was lost in April 2012. Since January 2009 methane columns retrievals have been available also from the Thermal And Near Infrared Sensor for carbon Observations-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS), on-board the GOSAT satellite. In this study, we used measurements in the short wave infrared radiation (SWIR) from TANSO-FTS covering 5 years, from January 2010 to December 2014 to estimate global methane fluxes by inverse modeling, using the PYVAR-LMDZ model. We present here the results of global and regional methane budget, and its inter-annual variability during this period.

  1. Micro-phytoplankton community structure in the coastal upwelling zone off Concepción (central Chile): Annual and inter-annual fluctuations in a highly dynamic environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anabalón, V.; Morales, C. E.; González, H. E.; Menschel, E.; Schneider, W.; Hormazabal, S.; Valencia, L.; Escribano, R.

    2016-12-01

    An intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in recent decades has been detected in some of the main eastern boundary current systems, especially at higher latitudes, but the response of coastal phytoplankton communities in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) remains unknown. At higher latitudes in the HCS (35-40°S), strong seasonality in wind-driven upwelling during spring-summer coincides with an annual increase in coastal chlorophyll-a and primary production, and a dominance of micro-phytoplankton. In order to understand the effects of potential upwelling intensification on the micro-phytoplankton community in this region, annual and inter-annual variability in its structure (total and taxa-specific abundance and biomass) and its association with oceanographic fluctuations were analyzed using in situ time series data (2002-2009) from a shelf station off Concepcion (36.5°S). At the annual scale, total mean abundance and biomass, attributed to a few dominant diatom taxa, were at least one order of magnitude greater during spring-summer than autumn-winter, in association with changes in upwelling and surface salinity and temperature, whereas macro-nutrient concentrations remained relatively high all the year. At the inter-annual scale, total abundance and biomass decreased during the upwelling season of the 2006-2009 period compared with the 2002-2006 period, notably due to lower abundances of Skeletonema and Leptocylindrus, but the relative dominance of a few taxa was maintained. The 2006-2009 period was characterized by higher upwelling intensity, colder and higher salinity waters, and changes in nutrient concentrations and ratios compared with the first period. The inter-annual changes in the micro-phytoplankton community were mostly associated with changes in surface salinity and temperature (changes in upwelling intensity) but also with changes in Si/N and N/P, which relate to other land-derived processes.

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nutrients along the western Antarctic Peninsula: is the Southern Annular Mode a potential driver?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Martinson, D. G.; Iannuzzi, R. A.; Ducklow, H. W.

    2014-12-01

    We investigated long-term time series data to improve our understanding of phytoplankton bloom dynamics and its regulation by climate variability on the western Antarctic Peninsula (wAP). Specifically, we examined seasonal and inter-annual variability in utilization of three major inorganic nutrients (nitrate and nitrite, phosphate, silicate) by spring phytoplankton blooms and potential drivers responsible for shaping those variations, using a 20-year time series (1992-2012) near Palmer Station on the wAP. Seasonal and inter-annual covariability in the 50-m depth integrated nutrients and chlorophyll-a (Chl) was analyzed using principle component analysis. We found no linear trends in any of the nutrients or Chl, but there were strong year-to-year fluctuations in seasonal nutrient drawdown and phytoplankton blooms. On average, Chl peaked around days 290-310, stayed high for ca. 40 days, and gradually decreased to the end of the growing season (March-April). Nitrate and nitrite and phosphate behaved in the opposite way of chl-a indicating biological utilization by phytoplankton, but silicate was not utilized in all years, implying non-diatom blooms. Annual anomalies showed a cyclic pattern in Chl, with a maximum occurring every four to six years on average. These years were found to be associated with the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in preceding winter. Our results suggest large-scale climate variability as a potential driver of biological utilization of nutrients and phytoplankton blooms.

  3. Asynchrony in the inter-annual recruitment of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the Great Lakes region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zischke, Mitchell T.; Bunnell, David B.; Troy, Cary D.; Berglund, Eric K.; Caroffino, David C.; Ebener, Mark P.; He, Ji X.; Sitar, Shawn P.; Hook, Tomas O.

    2017-01-01

    Spatially separated fish populations may display synchrony in annual recruitment if the factors that drive recruitment success, particularly abiotic factors such as temperature, are synchronised across broad spatial scales. We examined inter-annual variation in recruitment among lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) populations in lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior using fishery-dependent and -independent data from 1971 to 2014. Relative year-class strength (RYCS) was calculated from catch-curve residuals for each year class across multiple sampling years. Pairwise comparison of RYCS among datasets revealed no significant associations either within or between lakes, suggesting that recruitment of lake whitefish is spatially asynchronous. There was no consistent correlation between pairwise agreement and the distance between datasets, and models to estimate the spatial scale of recruitment synchrony did not fit well to these data. This suggests that inter-annual recruitment variation of lake whitefish is asynchronous across broad spatial scales in the Great Lakes. While our method primarily evaluated year-to-year recruitment variation, it is plausible that recruitment of lake whitefish varies at coarser temporal scales (e.g. decadal). Nonetheless, our findings differ from research on some other Coregonus species and suggest that local biotic or density-dependent factors may contribute strongly to lake whitefish recruitment rather than inter-annual variability in broad-scale abiotic factors.

  4. Annual patterns in bacterioplankton community variability in a humic lake.

    PubMed

    Kent, A D; Jones, S E; Yannarell, A C; Graham, J M; Lauster, G H; Kratz, T K; Triplett, E W

    2004-11-01

    Bacterioplankton community composition (BCC) was monitored in a shallow humic lake in northern Wisconsin, USA, over 3 years using automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis (ARISA). Comparison of ARISA profiles of bacterial communities over time indicated that BCC was highly variable on a seasonal and annual scale. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS) analysis indicated little similarity in BCC from year to year. Nevertheless, annual patterns in bacterioplankton community diversity were observed. Trends in bacterioplankton community diversity were correlated to annual patterns in community succession observed for phytoplankton and zooplankton populations, consistent with the notion that food web interactions affect bacterioplankton community structure in this humic lake. Bacterioplankton communities experience a dramatic drop in richness and abundance each year in early summer, concurrent with an increase in the abundance of both mixotrophic and heterotrophic flagellates. A second drop in richness, but not abundance, is observed each year in late summer, coinciding with an intense bloom of the nonphagotrophic dinoflagellate Peridinium limbatum. A relationship between bacterial community composition, size, and abundance and the population dynamics of Daphnia was also observed. The noted synchrony between these major population and species shifts suggests that linkages across trophic levels play a role in determining the annual time course of events for the microbial and metazoan components of the plankton.

  5. Seasonal and inter-annual variation of mesozooplankton in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escribano, Ruben; Hidalgo, Pamela; González, Humberto; Giesecke, Ricardo; Riquelme-Bugueño, Ramiro; Manríquez, Karen

    2007-11-01

    Zooplankton sampling at Station 18 off Concepción (36°30‧S and 73°07‧W), on an average frequency of 30 days (August 2002 to December 2005), allowed the assessment of seasonal and inter-annual variation in zooplankton biomass, its C and N content, and the community structure in relation to upwelling variability. Copepods contributed 79% of the total zooplankton community and were mostly represented by Paracalanus parvus, Oithona similis, Oithona nana, Calanus chilensis, and Rhincalanus nasutus. Other copepod species, euphausiids (mainly Euphausia mucronata), gelatinous zooplankton, and crustacean larvae comprised the rest of the community. Changes in the depth of the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone indicated the strongly seasonal upwelling pattern. The bulk of zooplankton biomass and total copepod abundance were both strongly and positively associated with a shallow (<20 m) oxygen minimum zone; these values increased in spring/summer, when upwelling prevailed. Gelatinous zooplankton showed positive abundance anomalies in the spring and winter, whereas euphausiids had no seasonal pattern and a positive anomaly in the fall. The C content and the C/N ratio of zooplankton biomass significantly increased during the spring when chlorophyll- a was high (>5 mg m -3). No major changes in zooplankton biomass and species were found from one year to the next. We concluded that upwelling is the key process modulating variability in zooplankton biomass and its community structure in this zone. The spring/summer increase in zooplankton may be largely the result of the aggregation of dominant copepods within the upwelling region; these may reproduce throughout the year, increasing their C content and C/N ratios given high diatom concentrations.

  6. Inter-rater Reliability of Sustained Aberrant Movement Patterns as a Clinical Assessment of Muscular Fatigue

    PubMed Central

    Aerts, Frank; Carrier, Kathy; Alwood, Becky

    2016-01-01

    Background: The assessment of clinical manifestation of muscle fatigue is an effective procedure in establishing therapeutic exercise dose. Few studies have evaluated physical therapist reliability in establishing muscle fatigue through detection of changes in quality of movement patterns in a live setting. Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the inter-rater reliability of physical therapists’ ability to detect altered movement patterns due to muscle fatigue. Design: A reliability study in a live setting with multiple raters. Participants: Forty-four healthy individuals (ages 19-35) were evaluated by six physical therapists in a live setting. Methods: Participants were evaluated by physical therapists for altered movement patterns during resisted shoulder rotation. Each participant completed a total of four tests: right shoulder internal rotation, right shoulder external rotation, left shoulder internal rotation and left shoulder external rotation. Results: For all tests combined, the inter-rater reliability for a single rater scoring ICC (2,1) was .65 (95%, .60, .71) This corresponds to moderate inter-rater reliability between physical therapists. Limitations: The results of this study apply only to healthy participants and therefore cannot be generalized to a symptomatic population. Conclusion: Moderate inter-rater reliability was found between physical therapists in establishing muscle fatigue through the observation of sustained altered movement patterns during dynamic resistive shoulder internal and external rotation. PMID:27347241

  7. Inter-annual and spatial variability of hillslope runoff processes and mercury flux during spring snowmelt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, C. P.; Haynes, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds; contributing a large portion of the annual Hg flux. The export of mercury and dissolved solutes such as sulphate and dissolved organic carbon in meltwaters from upland soils may affect Hg methylation rates in low-lying wetlands and subsequent methylmercury (MeHg) export. Given the toxicological and teratological effects associated with mercury and methylmercury to ecosystem and human health, understanding hydrological controls on mercury mobility, especially under a changing climate, warrants further study. However, the impact of global climate change on snowpack accumulation and spring runoff intensity, and its subsequent influence on mercury and solute mobility in forested watersheds are not fully understood. In order to assess the potential effects of climate change, inter-annual climate variability was used as a proxy by comparing hydrological flows and mercury and solute mobility in spring following winters with: 1) a severely diminished snow accumulation with an early melt (2009-10) and 2) a significantly greater winter snow accumulation with average to late melt timing (2010-11). To additionally assess spatial variability, spring runoff samples were collected from three replicate instrumented, forested hillslope plots delineated in an upland-peatland watershed at the Marcell Experimental Forest in north-central Minnesota. Installed in each plot is a shallow subsurface runoff trench equipped with digital flow datalogging. Total mercury (THg) analysis of the spring 2010 runoff period revealed an average overall THg freshet yield of approximately 520 ng m-2 upland forest area from each of the three replicate plots. For the 2011 spring snowmelt period, an average THg yield of approximately 1480 ng m-2 upland forest area was observed; nearly three times greater than that observed in 2010. Enhanced snow accumulation and a subsequently greater magnitude of runoff significantly enhances

  8. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  9. Modeling the Observed QBO and Inter-Annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, F. T.

    2006-01-01

    In the current version of the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW) from Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). The model does not have topography, and the planetary waves are solely generated by instabilities. We discuss a 3D modeling study that describes the QBO extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere, where the oscillation produces significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. The numerical results are compared with temperature measurements from the SABER (TIMED) and MLS (UARS) instruments obtained by Huang et al. (2006). With a GW source that peaks at the Equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 26 months and zonal wind amplitudes of almost 25 m/s at 30 km. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. The modeled QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, the relative importance of the advection terms are discussed, and they are shown to be important in the stratosphere. At altitudes above 80 km, however, the QBO-related inter-annual variations of the tide are generated primarily by GW momentum deposition. In qualitative agreement with the SABER measurements, the model generates distinct zonal-mean QBO temperature variations in the stratosphere and mesosphere. In the stratosphere, the computed amplitudes are not much smaller than those observed, and the rate of downward propagation at the Equator is reproduced. The modeled temperature amplitudes in the mesosphere, however, are much smaller than those observed. The observed and computed temperature variations of the QBO peak at the Equator but extend with phase reversals to high latitudes, in contrast to the zonal winds that are

  10. Evaluation of two GCMs in simulating rainfall inter-annual variability over Southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Hewitson, Bruce C.; Gutowski, William J.; Tadross, Mark A.

    2016-02-01

    We evaluate the performance of two global circulation models (GCMs) over Southern Africa, as part of the efforts to improve the skill of seasonal forecast from a multi-model ensemble system over the region. The two GCMs evaluated in the study are the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) and the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3 (HadAM3). The study analyzed 30-year climate simulations from the models and compared the results with those from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset. The evaluation focused on how well the models simulate circulation features, seasonal variation of temperature and rainfall, and the inter-annual rainfall and circulations during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The study also investigated the relationship between the regional rainfall from the models and global sea surface temperature (SST) during the El Niño and La Niña years. The results show that both GCMs simulate the circulation features and the seasonal cycles of rainfall and temperature fairly well. The location and magnitude of maxima and minima in surface temperature, sea level pressure (SLP), and rainfall fields are well reproduced. The maximum error in the simulated temperature fields is about 2 °, 4 mb in SLP and 8 mm/day in rainfall. However, CAM3 shows a major bias in simulating the summer rainfall; it simulates the maximum rainfall along the western part of Southern Africa, instead of the eastern part. The phase of the seasonal cycles is well reproduced, but the amplitude is underestimated over the Western Cape. Both CAM3 and HadAM3 give reasonable simulations of significant relationship between the regional rainfall and SST over the Nino 3.4 region and show that ENSO strongly drives the climate of Southern Africa. Hence, the model simulations could contribute to understanding the climate of the region and improve seasonal forecasts over Southern Africa.

  11. Wintertime Cloud Cover as a Contributor towards Inter-Annual Sea Ice Variability.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letterly, A.; Key, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    The role of cloud forcing on Arctic sea ice is fundamental but also complex, serving as an accelerant or antagonist to ice growth on a hemispheric scale. Though sea ice decline in recent decades is largely attributed to arctic amplification, plunges in ice extent and restorative winter refreezes occurring on a year-to-year basis cannot be adequately explained by this general trend. For improved understanding and prediction of these inter-annual fluctuations in ice area, cloud forcing effects on surface energy budgets must be seen as an important factor for ice growth and melt. For example, the significant rebound of arctic sea ice from the record minimum of September 2012 was aided by the surface cooling effects of negative winter cloud cover anomalies (fewer clouds), according to a recent study using satellite and reanalysis data. For this study, the ERA-Interim reanalysis is used to diagnose and quantify the contribution of surface radiative forcing by wintertime cloud cover on sea ice during years with anomalous total ice areas. Comparisons between reanalysis of cloud forcing from September through March and passive microwave-derived ice concentrations in September demonstrate a significant inverse correlation between cloud cover during winter and the ice extent at the end of a melt season. Cloud re-emission of longwave radiation in winter months acts to curb the process by which polar seas radiatively cool to space and freeze, so that less winter cloud generally results in thicker sea ice. Here we investigate the role of winter cloud cover as a predictor and contributor to anomalous ice extent over the past 32 years. Our results stand to improve climate model projections of sea ice melt and assign some cause to large year-to-year ice area variability in a warming arctic regime.

  12. Inter-annual variability of CO2 exchanges between an emersed tidal flat and the atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klaassen, Wim; Spilmont, Nicolas

    2012-03-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) exchanges between a tidal flat (Wadden Sea, Netherlands) and the atmosphere were measured during a three-year survey. CO2 exchanges were monitored during 1-2 days each month between September 2006 and September 2009 using a flux chamber. The flux of CO2 was separated into two fluxes: the dark flux and the gross light flux, with the dark flux representing the flux during darkness and the gross light flux the difference between the net CO2 flux (measured under light) and the dark flux. It was argued that dark and light fluxes may deviate from respiration and photosynthesis, as the fluxes between wet tidal sediment and the atmosphere are affected by the partial pressure of CO2 in pore water, which is only gradually changed by sources and sinks of CO2 in the sediment. Light and dark fluxes were empirically related to environmental parameters in order to interpolate between succeeding measurements. The dark flux appeared to increase with temperature and the light flux became more intense with increasing irradiance with signs of saturation at high light levels on many but not all measurement days. These relations with environmental parameters showed seasonal and inter-annual variability. Fluxes were negligible just after the site was emersed and it took up to 3 h of emersion until fluxes were adapted to environmental conditions. Dark and light fluxes both showed strong seasonality with high values in summer and low values in winter. The tidal flat appeared as a source of atmospheric CO2 in the first year of measurement (+0.35 mol CO2 m-2 yr-1) and a sink in the following two years (-1.59 and -0.72 mol CO2 m-2 yr-1). Since the source of CO2 was observed during an extremely warm year, we suggest that climate warming might influence the carbon budget of tidal flats.

  13. Study of the inter-annual ozone variation at European high latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Rolf; Hoppe, Ulf-Peter; Kivi, Rigel; Stebel, Kerstin; Hansen, Georg; Gausa, Michael; von der Gathen, Peter; Orsolini, Yvan

    The study of the inter-annual ozone variation is based on data sets of the Arctic Lidar Observation of Middle Atmosphere Research (ALOMAR) (69.3° N, 16.0° E,) station at Andenes and of the stations at Sodankyl¨ (67.4° N, 26.6° E) and at Ny-Alesund (78.9° N, 11.9° E). The a data sets cover the time period from 1994 up to 2004. Additionally, the results are completed by HALOE minor gas profiles. We find a second ozone maximum near 13 -15 km, between the tropopause and the absolute ozone maximum near 17- 20 km. The maximum is built up by the combination of air mass transport and chemical ozone destruction, mainly caused by the NOx catalytic cycle, which begins after the polar night and intensifies with the increasing day length. Together with the stratospheric warming during the summer the vertical air mass transport reduces. The descent of ozone from higher to lower altitudes weakens compared to the winter period. The formation of a troposphere inversion layer is observed. The temperature inversion is stronger during the summer period and inhibits the vertical stratosphere troposphere exchange. The horizontal advection in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is enforced during the summer, too. The combination of these mechanisms produces a layer with a very low ozone density above the troposphere inversion layer from June/July up to the late autumn. The ozone and temperature distributions obtained from the several arctic stations are compared and the differences are discussed.

  14. Spatio-temporal variation of methane over Indian region: Seasonal and inter-annual variation .

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    M, K.; Nair, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Methane (CH4) has an important role in the radiation budget and chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere as a greenhouse and reactive trace gas. The rapid developments in the agriculture and industry over India have lead to the emission of many pollutants like CO, O3, CH4, CO2, SO2 etc into the atmosphere. However, their sources, sinks and concentration levels are poorly understood because of the lack of systematic sampling and monitoring. The advent of satellite remote sensing has helped to analyze the chemical composition of atmosphere with good spatial coverage especially over tropical region which was poorly sampled with the existing surface network. This work attempts an analysis of spatial distribution, seasonal cycle and inter annual variation of CH4 over Indian region during 2003-2009 using SCIAMACHY data onboard ENVISAT. Column CH4 varies from 1740-1890 ppbv over Indian region with distinct spatial and temporal features. We observed a dependence of seasonal CH4 variation on rice cultivation, convective activities and changes in boundary layer characteristics. The comparative study using satellite, aircraft and surface measurement shown CH4 has non-homogeneity in its distribution and seasonal variation in different layers of atmosphere. A comparative study of CH4 at different hot spot regions over the globe was carried out which showed prominent hemispherical variations. Large spread in column CH4 was observed at India and Chinese region compared to other regions with a significant seasonal variability. This study points to the blending of satellite, aircraft and surface measurements for the realization of regional distribution of CH4.

  15. Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

    2017-03-01

    Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

  16. Inter- and intrarater clinician agreement on joint motion patterns during gait in children with cerebral palsy.

    PubMed

    Nieuwenhuys, Angela; Papageorgiou, Eirini; Molenaers, Guy; Monari, Davide; de Laet, Tinne; Desloovere, Kaat

    2017-07-01

    This study aimed to quantify the inter- and intrarater clinician agreement on joint motion patterns in children with spastic cerebral palsy (CP), which were recently specified by a Delphi consensus study. It also examined whether experience with three-dimensional gait analysis (3DGA) is a prerequisite for using the patterns. The experimental group consisted of 82 patients with CP (57 males, 25 females; uni-/bilateral CP [n=27/55]; Gross Motor Function Classification System levels I to III; mean age 9y 5mo [range 4y-18y]). Thirty-two clinicians were split into 'experienced' and 'inexperienced' rater groups. Each rater was asked to classify 3DGA reports of 27 or 28 patients twice. Inter- and intrarater agreement on 49 joint motion patterns was estimated using percentage of agreement and kappa statistics. Twenty-eight raters completed both classification rounds. Intrarater agreement was 'substantial' to 'almost perfect' for all joints (0.64<ĸ<0.91). Interrater agreement reached similar results (0.63<ĸ<0.86), except for the knee patterns during stance (ĸ=0.49, 'moderate agreement'). Experienced raters performed significantly better on patterns of the knee during stance and ankle during swing. Apart from some specific knee patterns during stance and ankle patterns during swing, the results suggested that clinicians could use predefined joint motion patterns in CP with good confidence, even in case of limited experience with 3DGA. © 2017 Mac Keith Press.

  17. Climatic Predictors of the Intra- and Inter-Annual Distributions of Plague Cases in New Mexico Based on 29 Years of Animal-Based Surveillance Data

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Heidi E.; Ettestad, Paul; Reynolds, Pamela J.; Brown, Ted L.; Hatton, Elizabeth S.; Holmes, Jennifer L.; Glass, Gregory E.; Gage, Kenneth L.; Eisen, Rebecca J.

    2010-01-01

    Within the United States, the majority of human plague cases are reported from New Mexico. We describe climatic factors involved in intra- and inter-annual plague dynamics using animal-based surveillance data from that state. Unlike the clear seasonal pattern observed at lower elevations, cases occur randomly throughout the year at higher elevations. Increasing elevation corresponded with delayed mean time in case presentation. Using local meteorological data (previous year mean annual precipitation, total degrees over 27°C 3 years before and maximum winter temperatures 4 years before) we built a time-series model predicting annual case load that explained 75% of the variance in pet cases between years. Moreover, we found a significant correlation with observed annual human cases and predicted pet cases. Because covariates were time-lagged by at least 1 year, intensity of case loads can be predicted in advance of a plague season. Understanding associations between environmental and meteorological factors can be useful for anticipating future disease trends. PMID:20065002

  18. Changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America from RegCM projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Coppola, Erika; Tefera Diro, Gulilat; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavia, Edgar G.; Graef, Federico

    2013-04-01

    Future climate projections performed with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) are used to analyze the future changes on inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America. Two different global circulation models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMPI5) are used as boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations, which result in four different climate projections. Through a comparison of the precipitation annual cycles in reference period with future simulations, a shift in the annual cycle is found over Northwestern Mexico and Central America. During the rainy season (June to September), it is found an increase in the inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature, together with a warming greater than 4°C in the mean seasonal temperature and a drying of more than 20%. An increased warming on the Eastern Pacific Ocean compared to the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean potentially generates a strengthened North Atlantic Subtropical High Pressure and also a stronger Caribbean Low Level Jet. This future ENSO-like state appears to be the mechanism driving the drying over the region

  19. Explaining the inter-annual variability in the ecosystem fluxes of the Brasschaat Scots pine forest: 20 years of eddy flux and pollution monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horemans, Joanna; Roland, Marilyn; Janssens, Ivan; Ceulemans, Reinhart

    2017-04-01

    Because of their ecological and recreational value, the health of forest ecosystems and their response to global change and pollution are of high importance. At a number of EuroFlux and ICOS ecosystem sites in Europe - as the Brasschaat forest site - the measurements of ecosystem fluxes of carbon and other gases are combined with vertical profiles of air pollution within the framework of the ICP-Forest monitoring program. The Brasschaat forest is dominated by 80-year old Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.), and has a total area of about 150 ha. It is situated near an urban area in the Campine region of Flanders, Belgium and is characterized by a mean annual temperature of 9.8 °C and an annual rainfall of 830 mm. In this contribution we report on a long-term analysis (1996-2016) of the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes, the energy exchanges and the pollutant concentrations (ozone, NOx, NH3, SO2). Particular interest goes to the inter-annual variation of the carbon fluxes and the carbon allocation patterns. The impact of the long-term (aggregated) and the short-term variability in both the meteorological drivers and in the main tropospheric pollutants on the carbon fluxes is examined, as well as their mutual interactive effects and their potential memory effect. The effect of variability in the drivers during the phenological phases (seasonality) on the inter-annual variability of the fluxes is also examined. Basic statistical techniques as well as spectral analyses and data mining techniques are being used.

  20. Topographic control of snowpack distribution in a small catchment in the central Spanish Pyrenees: intra- and inter-annual persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revuelto, J.; López-Moreno, J. I.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2014-04-01

    In this study we analyzed the relations between terrain characteristics and snow depth distribution in a small alpine catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. Twelve field campaigns were conducted during 2012 and 2013, which were years characterized by very different climatic conditions. Snow depth was measured using a long range terrestrial laser scanner and analyses were performed at a spatial resolution of 5 m. Pearson's r correlation, multiple linear regressions and binary regression trees were used to analyze the influence of topography on the snow depth distribution. The analyses were used to identify the topographic variables that better explain the snow distribution in this catchment, and to assess whether their contributions were variable over intra- and inter-annual time scales. The topographic position index, which has rarely been used in these types of studies, most accurately explained the distribution of snow accumulation. Other variables affecting the snow depth distribution included the maximum upwind slope, elevation, and northing (or potential incoming solar radiation). The models developed to predict snow distribution in the basin for each of the 12 survey days were similar in terms of the most explanatory variables. However, the variance explained by the overall model and by each topographic variable, especially those making a lesser contribution, differed markedly between a year in which snow was abundant (2013) and a~year when snow was scarce (2012), and also differed between surveys in which snow accumulation or melting conditions dominated in the preceding days. The total variance explained by the models clearly decreased for those days on which the snow pack was thinner and more patchily distributed. Despite the differences in climatic conditions in the 2012 and 2013 snow seasons, some similarities in snow accumulation patterns were observed.

  1. Inter-individual variability and pattern recognition of surface electromyography in front crawl swimming.

    PubMed

    Martens, Jonas; Daly, Daniel; Deschamps, Kevin; Staes, Filip; Fernandes, Ricardo J

    2016-12-01

    Variability of electromyographic (EMG) recordings is a complex phenomenon rarely examined in swimming. Our purposes were to investigate inter-individual variability in muscle activation patterns during front crawl swimming and assess if there were clusters of sub patterns present. Bilateral muscle activity of rectus abdominis (RA) and deltoideus medialis (DM) was recorded using wireless surface EMG in 15 adult male competitive swimmers. The amplitude of the median EMG trial of six upper arm movement cycles was used for the inter-individual variability assessment, quantified with the coefficient of variation, coefficient of quartile variation, the variance ratio and mean deviation. Key features were selected based on qualitative and quantitative classification strategies to enter in a k-means cluster analysis to examine the presence of strong sub patterns. Such strong sub patterns were found when clustering in two, three and four clusters. Inter-individual variability in a group of highly skilled swimmers was higher compared to other cyclic movements which is in contrast to what has been reported in the previous 50years of EMG research in swimming. This leads to the conclusion that coaches should be careful in using overall reference EMG information to enhance the individual swimming technique of their athletes.

  2. Drivers of inter-annual variability in C4 abundance in mixed C3-C4 grasslands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffith, D.; Ratajczak, Z.; Anderson, M.; Lind, E. M.; Still, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Grassland communities tend to be dominated by either C3 or C4 grass species, as opposed to being evenly mixed. Globally, this pattern is a consequence of the crossover temperature threshold above which C4 grasses are climatically favored. However, C3-C4 distributions can also be distinctly bimodal at the landscape scale, reflecting variation in fire regime, herbivory, soils, and other factors that favor either C3 or C4 vegetation. As such, our aims were to first investigate the global controls on C3 and C4 species pools, and second to determine the magnitude of inter-annual variation in C4 grass relative abundance in mixed C3-C4 grasslands with different fire regimes, soil nitrogen, and grazing pressures. Our analyses used data from 74 globally distributed Nutrient Network sites, 30 of which are mixed C3-C4 grasslands. Each site has factorial fertilizer (NPK) and herbivore exclosure treatments in replicated blocks. To address our first goal we conducted a random forest analysis of site-level C4 relative abundances in relation to mean annual temperature and rainfall, growing season temperature (GST) and rainfall, rainfall seasonality, aridity, fire frequency and management, frost, soil fertility, and grass lineage. In order to address our second goal, we narrowed our focus to sites having mixed C3-C4 grass composition and at least five years of species composition data (16 sites). A GST of 15 °C was a good descriptor of C4 versus C3 grass dominance, although there were marked differences among specific C4 grass lineages in their distributions. For example, whether or not a site has an actively managed burn regime was a greater predictor of Andropogoneae (C4) than GST. Furthermore, in mixed C3-C4 grasslands fertilization favored C3 grasses. Our research delineates the climatic limits of mixed C3-C4 grasslands and highlights the influence of disturbance, soil, and phylogeny on C4 and C3 grass dominance.

  3. Diurnal, Seasonal and Inter-annual Variations of N2O Fluxes from Perennial Vineyard Soils in California, USA.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suddick, E. C.; Carlisle, E. A.; Spencer, R. G.; Smart, D. R.

    2007-12-01

    The USA emits 1562 million metric tons of carbon equivalents a year, whereby this value is projected to rise by an estimated 14 % in 2012. California is the 12th major global emitter of greenhouse gases, emitting approximately 500 million metric tons of carbon equivalents a year. 84 % of greenhouse gas emissions are from CO2, 7 % and 6 % from N2O and CH4 respectively and approximately 8 % of these emissions are derived from agricultural activities. The concentration of nitrous oxide (N2O) within the atmosphere has been increasing at a rate of approximately 0.27 % per year and has mainly been attributed to agricultural practices such as land-use changes, biomass burning, nitrogen fertilization, livestock and manure management. Agriculture related activities generate from 6 to 35 Tg N2O-N per year, or about 60 to 70 % of global production. The primary biogenic sources of N2O are from terrestrial soils, which are thought to be a major source of N2O to the atmosphere and mainly involve the microbial nitrogen transformations brought about by nitrification and denitrification. The aim of this study was to quantify the seasonal and inter-annual variability of N2O emissions and nitrogen cycling from a conventionally tilled wine grape vineyard in Napa, California during a two year closed static chamber study and to also investigate the diurnal N2O flux pattern and effects of fertilization management practices on emissions within a table grape vineyard in Delano, California. Preliminary data shows that the annual N2O fluxes were influenced by soil properties, management practices and weather such as precipitation events where increases in N2O emissions were observed after irrigation or fertilization practices and immediately following rainfall. Vineyard floor and vine management will be discussed in terms of the significance management practices have upon the release of N2O emissions from vineyard soils where the high water and nitrogen fertilizer usage within these

  4. Phenological controls on inter-annual variability in ozone dry deposition velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clifton, Olivia; Fiore, Arlene; Munger, J. William; Shevliakova, Elena; Horowitz, Larry; Malyshev, Sergey; Griffin, Kevin

    2016-04-01

    Our understanding of ozone removal by northern mid-latitude temperate deciduous forests is largely based on short-term observational studies, and thus year-to-year variations of this sink have received little attention. The specific pathways for ozone dry deposition include stomatal uptake and other non-stomatal processes that are poorly understood. Given the importance of ozone dry deposition to model accurately the tropospheric ozone budget and regional air quality, an improved mechanistic understanding of this ozone sink is needed. We investigate here the physical and biological controls on inter-annual variations in seasonal and diurnal cycles of ozone dry deposition velocity using nine years of hourly observations of eddy covariance ozone flux and concentration measurements at Harvard Forest, a northern mid-latitude temperate deciduous forest. We also use coincident eddy covariance water vapor flux and sensible heat flux and other micrometeorological measurements to infer stomatal conductance in order to separate the impacts of stomatal versus non-stomatal pathways on ozone deposition. There is a difference of approximately a factor of two between minimum and maximum monthly daytime mean ozone dry deposition velocities at Harvard Forest. The highest summertime mean ozone dry deposition velocities occur during 1998 and 1999 (0.72 cm/s), and similar seasonal and diurnal cycles occur in both years. The similar dry deposition velocities during these two years, however, may reflect compensation between different processes as mean daytime summertime stomatal conductance during 1998 is roughly 1.5 times higher than for 1999, suggesting large year-to-year variations in non-stomatal as well as stomatal uptake of ozone. We partition the onset and decline of the growing season each year into different periods using spring and fall phenology observations at Harvard Forest. Combining the dry deposition velocities across years during each phenological period, we find that

  5. The NMME Intra-Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction Experiment (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, B. P.

    2013-12-01

    The recent US National Academies report 'Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability' was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. Given the pragmatic utility of the multi-model approach, there is multi-agency (NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOE) support for a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Intra- seasonal to Seasonal to Inter-annual (ISI) prediction experiment. This experiment leverages an NMME team that has already formed and began producing routine real-time multi-model ensemble ISI predictions since August 2011. The forecasts are provided to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) on an experimental basis for evaluation and consolidation as a multi-model ensemble ISI prediction system. The experimental prediction system developed by this NMME team is as an 'NMME of opportunity' in that the seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems are readily available and each team member has independently developed the initialization and prediction protocol. We will refer to the NMME of opportunity as phase 1 NMME (or NMME-1). The NMME-1 focuses on season-to-interannual time-scales in that the data that is exchanged is monthly. Here we show some results from 28 years of hindcasts that cover a common period (i.e., 1982-2009) for all the models, and the real-time experimental forecast from the NMME of opportunity (i.e., NMME-1). The results help provide evidence of the benefit of a multi-model ensemble of predictions, as compared with the ensemble

  6. Dermoscopic patterns of Melanoma Metastases: inter-observer consistency and accuracy for metastases recognition

    PubMed Central

    Costa, J.; Ortiz-Ibañez, K.; Salerni, G.; Borges, V.; Carrera, C.; Puig, S.; Malvehy, J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Cutaneous metastases of malignant melanoma (CMMM) can be confused with other skin lesions. Dermoscopy could be helpful in the differential diagnosis. Objective To describe distinctive dermoscopic patterns that are reproducible and accurate in the identification of CMMM Methods A retrospective study of 146 dermoscopic images of CMMM from 42 patients attending a Melanoma Unit between 2002 and 2009 was performed. Firstly, two investigators established six dermoscopic patterns for CMMM. The correlation of 73 dermoscopic images with their distinctive patterns was assessed by four independent dermatologists to evaluate the reproducibility in the identification of the patterns. Finally, 163 dermoscopic images, including CMMM and non-metastatic lesions, were evaluated by the same four dermatologists to calculate the accuracy of the patterns in the recognition of CMMM. Results Five CMMM dermoscopic patterns had a good inter-observer agreement (blue nevus-like, nevus-like, angioma like, vascular and unspecific). When CMMM were classified according to these patterns, correlation between the investigators and the four dermatologists ranged from κ = 0.56 to 0.7. 71 CMMM, 16 angiomas, 22 blue nevus, 15 malignant melanoma, 11 seborrheic keratosis, 15 melanocytic nevus with globular pattern and 13 pink lesions with vascular pattern were evaluated according to the previously described CMMM dermoscopy patterns, showing an overall sensitivity of 68% (between 54.9–76%) and a specificity of 81% (between 68.6–93.5) for the diagnosis of CMMM. Conclusion Five dermoscopic patterns of CMMM with good inter-observer agreement obtained a high sensitivity and specificity in the diagnosis of metastasis, the accuracy varying according to the experience of the observer. PMID:23495915

  7. Inter-Annual Repeatability of Regional Dust Storms During the Martian Dusty Season (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    We investigate the annual pattern of large (regional) dust storms during the martian dusty season--southern spring and summer (Ls 180° to 360°)--and find a repeatable pattern of three distinct storms each Mars year without a global dust storm. We use a 200 K contour in the zonal mean climatology at 50 Pa from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO to identify the regional and global dust storms and then to characterize their extent and evolution. Observations from the two instruments cover the dusty season of five mars years without a global storm: MY24, MY26, MY29, MY30 and MY31. The exact timing, duration and peak temperatures vary somewhat from year to year, but each of the three storms has distinct characteristics and behavior, and overall the years follow a very similar pattern. Each year starts with an 'A' storm pre-perihelion (between Ls 210° and 240°) in the southern mid-latitudes. It lasts for 15° to 40° of Ls and ends no later than the solstice. The storm takes 2° to 12° of Ls to reach its peak zonal mean temperatures between 210 K and 230 K. The second storm ('B' storm) each year occurs as the 'A' storm is decaying. It starts around the perihelion along the southern seasonal polar cap edge and lasts until between Ls 285° and 295°. While the storm often has the strongest warming for the year (with zonal mean peak temperatures between 210 K and 225 K), the storm's impact remains south of the tropics. The final storm each year ('C' storm) starts between Ls 305° and 320°. It lasts a relatively short 3° to 15° of Ls. However, the later the storm starts seasonally, the longer it tends to last. The peak temperatures are quite variable for the 'C' storm, ranging from 200 K to 225 K. In MY26, the 'C' storm has the highest zonal mean temperatures for the season.

  8. Detecting causality from online psychiatric texts using inter-sentential language patterns

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Online psychiatric texts are natural language texts expressing depressive problems, published by Internet users via community-based web services such as web forums, message boards and blogs. Understanding the cause-effect relations embedded in these psychiatric texts can provide insight into the authors’ problems, thus increasing the effectiveness of online psychiatric services. Methods Previous studies have proposed the use of word pairs extracted from a set of sentence pairs to identify cause-effect relations between sentences. A word pair is made up of two words, with one coming from the cause text span and the other from the effect text span. Analysis of the relationship between these words can be used to capture individual word associations between cause and effect sentences. For instance, (broke up, life) and (boyfriend, meaningless) are two word pairs extracted from the sentence pair: “I broke up with my boyfriend. Life is now meaningless to me”. The major limitation of word pairs is that individual words in sentences usually cannot reflect the exact meaning of the cause and effect events, and thus may produce semantically incomplete word pairs, as the previous examples show. Therefore, this study proposes the use of inter-sentential language patterns such as ≪broke up, boyfriend>, inter-sentential language patterns can capture associations among multiple words within and between sentences, thus can provide more precise information than word pairs. To acquire inter-sentential language patterns, we develop a text mining framework by extending the classical association rule mining algorithm such that it can discover frequently co-occurring patterns across the sentence boundary. Results Performance was evaluated on a corpus of texts collected from PsychPark (http://www.psychpark.org), a virtual psychiatric clinic maintained by a group of volunteer professionals from the Taiwan

  9. Detecting causality from online psychiatric texts using inter-sentential language patterns.

    PubMed

    Wu, Jheng-Long; Yu, Liang-Chih; Chang, Pei-Chann

    2012-07-18

    Online psychiatric texts are natural language texts expressing depressive problems, published by Internet users via community-based web services such as web forums, message boards and blogs. Understanding the cause-effect relations embedded in these psychiatric texts can provide insight into the authors' problems, thus increasing the effectiveness of online psychiatric services. Previous studies have proposed the use of word pairs extracted from a set of sentence pairs to identify cause-effect relations between sentences. A word pair is made up of two words, with one coming from the cause text span and the other from the effect text span. Analysis of the relationship between these words can be used to capture individual word associations between cause and effect sentences. For instance, (broke up, life) and (boyfriend, meaningless) are two word pairs extracted from the sentence pair: "I broke up with my boyfriend. Life is now meaningless to me". The major limitation of word pairs is that individual words in sentences usually cannot reflect the exact meaning of the cause and effect events, and thus may produce semantically incomplete word pairs, as the previous examples show. Therefore, this study proposes the use of inter-sentential language patterns such as ≪broke up, boyfriend>, inter-sentential language patterns can capture associations among multiple words within and between sentences, thus can provide more precise information than word pairs. To acquire inter-sentential language patterns, we develop a text mining framework by extending the classical association rule mining algorithm such that it can discover frequently co-occurring patterns across the sentence boundary. Performance was evaluated on a corpus of texts collected from PsychPark (http://www.psychpark.org), a virtual psychiatric clinic maintained by a group of volunteer professionals from the Taiwan Association of Mental Health

  10. Intra- and Inter-annual Fluorescence Intensity Variations in Drip Water, Heshang Cave, Central China: Implications for Speleothem Palaeoclimatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, L.; Hu, C.; Li, X.; Ruan, J.; Hartland, A.

    2015-12-01

    Cave drip water acts as a signal carrier for the soil-rock-air system leading to the capture of climatic and environmental information in stalagmites. This paper seeks to develop an understanding of the environmental and climatic factors which control fluorescence variations in dripwater from in Heshang Cave, Central China. This information is essential to unravelling the significance of organic fluorescence in stalagmites and its utility in quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions. On the seasonal time scale, drip water fluorescence is largely controlled by the decomposition and translocation of dissolved organic matter in the soil, related to climate factors like temperature and precipitation. On the inter-annual time scale, longer duration monitoring data in scarce, yet this is needed to fully comprehend the influence of climate in stalagmite fluorescence time series. This study presents nine consecutive years of monthly drip water fluorescence intensity and drip rate data from two perennial drip sites in Heshang Cave. Drip water fluorescence was generally characterized by intensities in spring/summer and low intensities in autumn/winter. In dry hydrologic years, little seasonality in fluorescence signals was observed, but the opposite was observed in wet years. On the inter-annual time scale, the annual mean intensities of drip water fluorescence positively correlated with local annual rainfall with a 1-year lag (R2HS4=0.94; R2HS6=0.74). This indicates that rainfall is the main control on total drip water fluorescence (integrating across a hydrologic year), despite significant degrees of intra-annual fluorescence variation being observed between wet and dry years. These findings are of direct relevance for paleoclimate reconstruction using fluorescence intensities in stalagmites from the Asian monsoon region. Key words: fluorescence; dissolved organic matter; drip water rates; seasonality; precipitation

  11. Statistical adjustment of simulated inter-annual variability in an investigation of short-term temperature trend distributions over Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenier, Patrick; Chaumont, Diane; de Elía, Ramón

    2015-04-01

    Plausible climate trajectories towards warmer temperatures are made up of a succession of positive and negative short-term trends. Cooling trends over short durations (~ 5 to 25 years) are thus to be expected, and related probabilities have to rely on simulations from physically-based climate models. However, because simulations often present offsets in many statistical properties relative to observations, it is important to address the issue of statistical adjustment prior to characterizing expected short-term trend distributions. In this paper, we discuss the impact of statistically adjusting inter-annual variability on short-term cooling probability for locations across Canada and during the current period (2006-2035). Two methods are considered, one that uses a transfer function based on the dissimilarity between simulated and observed detrended annual temperature values (residuals) during a calibration period, and another that uses an autoregressive model of the observational residuals for generating variability. Long-term trends remain invariant in both methods. Results show that although short-term trends in individual simulations are in some cases highly impacted, cooling probabilities based on a multi-model ensemble are only slightly altered by each of the two methods, due to compensational effects. In summary, this paper presents an application where final results are robust to how simulated inter-annual variability is handled.

  12. Modeling Inter-annual Variability of Seasonal Evaporation and Storage Change Based on the Extended Budyko Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Alimohammadi, N.; Wang, D.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term climate is the first order control on mean annual water balance, and vegetation and the interactions between climate seasonality and soil water storage change have also been found to play important roles. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Budyko hypothesis to the seasonal scale and to develop a model for inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation and storage change. A seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of potential evaporation to effective precipitation, where effective precipitation is the difference between rainfall and storage change. Correspondingly, evaporation ratio is defined as the ratio of evaporation to effective precipitation. A modified Turc-Pike equation with a horizontal shift is proposed to model inter-annual variability of seasonal evaporation ratio as a function of seasonal aridity index, which includes rainfall seasonality and soil water change. The performance of the seasonal water balance model is evaluated for 277 watersheds in the United States. 99% of wet seasons and 90% of dry seasons have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients larger than 0.5. The developed seasonal model can be applied for constructing long-term evaporation and storage change data when rainfall, potential evaporation, and runoff observations are available. On the other hand, vegetation affects seasonal water balance by controlling both evaporation and soil moisture dynamics. The correlation between NDVI and evaporation is strong particularly in wet seasons. However, the correlation between NDVI and the seasonal model parameters is only strong in dry seasons.

  13. Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2

  14. Graph-Based Inter-Subject Pattern Analysis of fMRI Data

    PubMed Central

    Takerkart, Sylvain; Auzias, Guillaume; Thirion, Bertrand; Ralaivola, Liva

    2014-01-01

    In brain imaging, solving learning problems in multi-subjects settings is difficult because of the differences that exist across individuals. Here we introduce a novel classification framework based on group-invariant graphical representations, allowing to overcome the inter-subject variability present in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and to perform multivariate pattern analysis across subjects. Our contribution is twofold: first, we propose an unsupervised representation learning scheme that encodes all relevant characteristics of distributed fMRI patterns into attributed graphs; second, we introduce a custom-designed graph kernel that exploits all these characteristics and makes it possible to perform supervised learning (here, classification) directly in graph space. The well-foundedness of our technique and the robustness of the performance to the parameter setting are demonstrated through inter-subject classification experiments conducted on both artificial data and a real fMRI experiment aimed at characterizing local cortical representations. Our results show that our framework produces accurate inter-subject predictions and that it outperforms a wide range of state-of-the-art vector- and parcel-based classification methods. Moreover, the genericity of our method makes it is easily adaptable to a wide range of potential applications. The dataset used in this study and an implementation of our framework are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1086317. PMID:25127129

  15. Response of Riparian Vegetation in Australia's Largest River Basin to Inter and Intra-Annual Climate Variability and Flooding as Quantified with Landsat and MODIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broich, M.; Tulbure, M. G.

    2015-12-01

    Australia is a continent subject to high rainfall variability, which has major influences on runoff and vegetation dynamics. However, the resulting spatial-temporal pattern of flooding and its influence on riparian vegetation has not been quantified in a spatially explicit way. Here we focused on the floodplains of the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area that covers over 1M km^2, as a case study. The MDB is the country's primary agricultural area with scarce water resources subject to competing demands and impacted by climate change and more recently by the Millennium Drought (1999-2009). Riparian vegetation in the MDB floodplain suffered extensive decline providing a dramatic degradation of riparian vegetation. We quantified the spatial-temporal impact of rainfall, temperature and flooding patters on vegetation dynamics at the sub- continental to local scales and across inter to intra-annual time scales based on three decades of Landsat (25k images), Bureau of Meteorology data and one decade of MODIS data. Vegetation response varied in space and time and with vegetation types, densities and location relative to areas frequently flooded. Vegetation degradation trends were observed over riparian forests and woodlands in areas where flooding regimes have changed to less frequent and smaller inundation extents. Conversely, herbaceous vegetation phenology followed primarily a 'boom' and 'bust' cycle, related to inter-annual rainfall variability. Spatial patters of vegetation degradation changed along the N-S rainfall gradient but flooding regimes and vegetation degradation patterns also varied at finer scale, highlighting the importance of a spatially explicit, internally consistent analysis and setting the stage for investigating further cross-scale relationships. Results are of interest for land and water management decisions. The approach developed here can be applied to other areas globally such as the Nile river basin and Okavango River delta in Africa or

  16. Response of Riparian Vegetation in AUSTRALIA"S Largest River Basin to Inter and Intra-Annual Climate Variability and Flooding as Quantified with Landsat and Modis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broich, M.; Tulbure, M. G.

    2016-06-01

    Australia is a continent subject to high rainfall variability, which has major influences on runoff and vegetation dynamics. However, the resulting spatial-temporal pattern of flooding and its influence on riparian vegetation has not been quantified in a spatially explicit way. Here we focused on the floodplains of the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), an area that covers over 1M km2, as a case study. The MDB is the country's primary agricultural area with scarce water resources subject to competing demands and impacted by climate change and more recently by the Millennium Drought (1999-2009). Riparian vegetation in the MDB floodplain suffered extensive decline providing a dramatic degradation of riparian vegetation. We quantified the spatial-temporal impact of rainfall, temperature and flooding patters on vegetation dynamics at the subcontinental to local scales and across inter to intra-annual time scales based on three decades of Landsat (25k images), Bureau of Meteorology data and one decade of MODIS data. Vegetation response varied in space and time and with vegetation types, densities and location relative to areas frequently flooded. Vegetation degradation trends were observed over riparian forests and woodlands in areas where flooding regimes have changed to less frequent and smaller inundation extents. Conversely, herbaceous vegetation phenology followed primarily a `boom' and `bust' cycle, related to inter-annual rainfall variability. Spatial patters of vegetation degradation changed along the N-S rainfall gradient but flooding regimes and vegetation degradation patterns also varied at finer scale, highlighting the importance of a spatially explicit, internally consistent analysis and setting the stage for investigating further cross-scale relationships. Results are of interest for land and water management decisions. The approach developed here can be applied to other areas globally such as the Nile river basin and Okavango River delta in Africa or the

  17. Temperature drives inter-annual variability of growing season CO2 and CH4 fluxes of Siberian lowland tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutzbach, Lars; Wille, Christian; Runkle, Benjamin; Schreiber, Peter; Sachs, Torsten; Langer, Moritz; Boike, Julia; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2015-04-01

    Due to the logistic and technical difficulties associated with experimental work in high latitudes, long-term measurements of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from arctic ecosystems are still rare, and published trace gas balances often rely on measurements from one or few growing seasons. The inter-annual variability of environmental conditions such as temperature, precipitation, snow cover, and timing of snow melt can be high in the Arctic, especially for regions which are influenced by both continental and maritime climates, such as the Siberian arctic lowlands. For these ecosystems, we must also expect a great inter-annual variability in the balance of trace gases. Multi-annual data sets are needed to investigate this variability and its drivers. Here we present multi-annual late summer CO2 and CH4 flux data from the Lena River Delta in the Siberian Arctic (72° N, 126° E). The study site Samoylov Island is characterized by polygonal lowland tundra, a vegetation dominated by mosses and sedges, a soil complex of Glacic, Turbic and Histic Cryosols, and an active layer depth of on average 0.5 m. Seasonal flux measurements were carried out with the eddy covariance technique during the 13-year period 2002 - 2014. Within this period, CO2 flux data overlaps during 37 days (20 July - 25 August) for 12 years, and CH4 flux data overlaps during 25 days (28 July - 21 August) for 9 years. Cumulative net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) during the late summer overlap period is fairly consistent for 9 out of 12 years with a CO2 uptake of 1.9 ± 0.1 mol m-2. Three years show a clearly smaller uptake of

  18. Inter-Rater Agreement of Auscultation, Palpable Fremitus, and Ventilator Waveform Sawtooth Patterns Between Clinicians.

    PubMed

    Berry, Marc P; Martí, Joan-Daniel; Ntoumenopoulos, George

    2016-10-01

    Clinicians often use numerous bedside assessments for secretion retention in participants who are receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to evaluate inter-rater agreement between clinicians when using standard clinical assessments of secretion retention and whether differences in clinician experience influenced inter-rater agreement. Seventy-one mechanically ventilated participants were assessed by a research clinician and by one of 13 ICU clinicians. Each clinician conducted a standardized assessment of lung auscultation, palpation for chest-wall (rhonchal) fremitus, and ventilator inspiratory/expiratory flow-time waveforms for the sawtooth pattern. On the presence of breath sounds, agreement ranged from absolute to moderate in the upper zones and the lower zones, respectively. Kappa values for abnormal and adventitious lung sounds achieved moderate agreement in the upper zones, less than chance agreement to substantial agreement in the middle zones, and moderate agreement to almost perfect agreement in the lower zones. Moderate to almost perfect agreement was established for palpable fremitus in the upper zones, moderate to substantial agreement in the middle zones, and less than chance to moderate agreement in the lower zones. Inter-rater agreement on the presence of expiratory sawtooth pattern identification showed moderate agreement. The level of percentage agreement between the research and ICU clinicians for each respiratory assessment studied did not relate directly to level of clinical experience. Inter-rater agreement for all assessments showed variability between lung regions but maintained reasonable percentage agreement in mechanically ventilated participants. The level of percentage agreement achieved between clinicians did not directly relate to clinical experience for all respiratory assessments. Therefore, these respiratory assessments should not necessarily be viewed in isolation but interpreted within the context of a full

  19. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous

  20. Localised residency and inter-annual fidelity to coastal foraging areas may place sea bass at risk to local depletion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, Thomas K.; Haberlin, Damien; Clohessy, Jim; Bennison, Ashley; Jessopp, Mark

    2017-04-01

    For many marine migratory fish, comparatively little is known about the movement of individuals rather than the population. Yet, such individual-based movement data is vitally important to understand variability in migratory strategies and fidelity to foraging locations. A case in point is the economically important European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) that inhabits coastal waters during the summer months before migrating offshore to spawn and overwinter. Beyond this broad generalisation we have very limited information on the movements of individuals at coastal foraging grounds. We used acoustic telemetry to track the summer movements and seasonal migrations of individual sea bass in a large tidally and estuarine influenced coastal environment. We found that the vast majority of tagged sea bass displayed long-term residency (mean, 167 days) and inter-annual fidelity (93% return rate) to specific areas. We describe individual fish home ranges of 3 km or less, and while fish clearly had core resident areas, there was movement of fish between closely located receivers. The combination of inter-annual fidelity to localised foraging areas makes sea bass very susceptible to local depletion; however, the designation of protected areas for sea bass may go a long way to ensuring the sustainability of this species.

  1. Inter-annual changes in detritus-based food chains can enhance plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2.

    PubMed

    Hines, Jes; Eisenhauer, Nico; Drake, Bert G

    2015-12-01

    Elevated atmospheric CO2 generally enhances plant growth, but the magnitude of the effects depend, in part, on nutrient availability and plant photosynthetic pathway. Due to their pivotal role in nutrient cycling, changes in abundance of detritivores could influence the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on essential ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and primary production. We conducted a field survey and a microcosm experiment to test the influence of changes in detritus-based food chains on litter mass loss and plant growth response to elevated atmospheric CO2 using two wetland plants: a C3 sedge (Scirpus olneyi) and a C4 grass (Spartina patens). Our field study revealed that organism's sensitivity to climate increased with trophic level resulting in strong inter-annual variation in detritus-based food chain length. Our microcosm experiment demonstrated that increased detritivore abundance could not only enhance decomposition rates, but also enhance plant growth of S. olneyi in elevated atmospheric CO2 conditions. In contrast, we found no evidence that changes in the detritus-based food chains influenced the growth of S. patens. Considered together, these results emphasize the importance of approaches that unite traditionally subdivided food web compartments and plant physiological processes to understand inter-annual variation in plant production response to elevated atmospheric CO2. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Inter-annual sea-ice dynamics and micro-algal biomass in winter pack ice of Marguerite Bay, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritsen, Christian H.; Memmott, Jeramie; Stewart, Frank J.

    2008-09-01

    The geographic remoteness, the lack of remote sensing capabilities, and the lack of appropriate environmental sensors make the detection of seasonal trends or inter-annual variations in sea-ice microbial biomass or production processes within the pack ice of the Antarctic extremely rare. The evaluation of their inter-annual variability in the context of ice dynamics and trends in regional climate has not been possible. During the late winters of 2001 (July-August) and 2002 (August-September) we assessed sea-ice dynamics, sea-ice characteristics, and biomass of sea-ice microbiota along the Western Antarctic Peninsula. These two winters were marked by large contrasts in the dates of initial ice formation (late June in 2001 and April in 2002), which resulted in differences in the physical pack-ice characteristics. Chlorophyll a (chl a) content in ice cores differed between the study years, with 2002 having 10-fold higher chl a content. The difference in ice-core chl a content is best explained by the timing of ice formation that leads to less phytoplankton scavenging from the water column and a lack of transfer of solar energy into the pack-ice ecosystem. Such a tractable atmosphere ocean-ice-biota coupling may help in evaluating underlying processes responsible for long-term trends in recruitment cycles of upper trophic levels as well as future projections on the response of the Antarctic marine ecosystems to variability in local climate.

  3. A modelling study of inter-annual variation of Kuroshio intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiaxing; Wei, Hao; Zhang, Zhihua; Lu, Youyu

    2013-12-01

    Inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio water intrusion on the shelf of East China Sea (ECS) was simulated with a nested global and Northwest Pacific ocean circulation model. The model analysis reveals the influence of the variability of Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan on the intrusion to the northeast of Taiwan: high correlation ( r = 0.92) with the on-shore volume flux in the lower layer (50-200 m); low correlation ( r = 0.50) with the on-shore flux in the upper layer (0-50 m). Spatial distribution of correlations between volume fluxes and sea surface height suggests that inter-annual variability of the Kuroshio flux east of Taiwan and its subsurface water intruding to the shelf lag behind the sea surface height anomalies in the central Pacific at 162°E by about 14 months, and could be related to wind-forced variation in the interior North Pacific that propagates westward as Rossby waves. The intrusion of Kuroshio surface water is also influenced by local winds. The intruding Kuroshio subsurface water causes variations of temperature and salinity of bottom waters on the southern ECS shelf. The influence of the intruding Kuroshio subsurface water extends widely from the shelf slope northeast of Taiwan northward to the central ECS near the 60 m isobath, and northeastward to the region near the 90 m isobath.

  4. An Inter-Annual Oscillation in the Western Arctic Associated with a Non Stationary Seasonally Lagged ENSO Signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Kent; Pickart, Robert

    2015-04-01

    The late summer retreat of Arctic sea ice is one of the most dramatic and well-documented changes that has occurred in the climate system. This retreat is most pronounced in the western Arctic. Sea ice minima in this region are typically followed by years with substantially higher extents. For example, the September 2013 Arctic sea ice extent was ~30% higher than the 2012 minimum. These rebounds have caused confusion amongst the public as well as debate within the scientific and policy communities regarding this aspect of climate change. Here we demonstrate the existence of an inter-annual oscillation in the region that successfully explains the rebound of sea ice following recent minima. The oscillation is associated with local variability in atmospheric flow, including a reversal in the surface wind field, that we propose results in changes in upwelling along the shelf-edge of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. From the 1950s to the 1990s, the oscillation was associated with a seasonally lagged El-Nino signal, but this is no longer the case. We argue that this change represents a reduction in the influence that ENSO has on the western Arctic possibly due to the loss of the region's sea ice that has enhanced local inter-annual variability.

  5. Localised residency and inter-annual fidelity to coastal foraging areas may place sea bass at risk to local depletion

    PubMed Central

    Doyle, Thomas K.; Haberlin, Damien; Clohessy, Jim; Bennison, Ashley; Jessopp, Mark

    2017-01-01

    For many marine migratory fish, comparatively little is known about the movement of individuals rather than the population. Yet, such individual-based movement data is vitally important to understand variability in migratory strategies and fidelity to foraging locations. A case in point is the economically important European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) that inhabits coastal waters during the summer months before migrating offshore to spawn and overwinter. Beyond this broad generalisation we have very limited information on the movements of individuals at coastal foraging grounds. We used acoustic telemetry to track the summer movements and seasonal migrations of individual sea bass in a large tidally and estuarine influenced coastal environment. We found that the vast majority of tagged sea bass displayed long-term residency (mean, 167 days) and inter-annual fidelity (93% return rate) to specific areas. We describe individual fish home ranges of 3 km or less, and while fish clearly had core resident areas, there was movement of fish between closely located receivers. The combination of inter-annual fidelity to localised foraging areas makes sea bass very susceptible to local depletion; however, the designation of protected areas for sea bass may go a long way to ensuring the sustainability of this species. PMID:28374772

  6. Quantifying the impact of the major driving mechanisms of inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Núñez-Riboni, Ismael; Akimova, Anna

    2017-05-01

    New 67-year long (1948-2014) gridded time series of salinity in the North Sea at all depths allowed to quantify, spatially resolved, the amount of inter-annual salinity variability explained by each of its driving mechanisms: sea level pressure (SLP), precipitation, river run-off, zonal and meridional winds and currents over the eastern North Atlantic. For the current data, not only annual averages but also their deviations, as measure of turbulence, were considered. Our results summarize and expand the knowledge gathered in the last 50 years about the mechanisms driving inter-annual variability of salinity in the North Sea. Three mechanisms, uncorrelated with each other and acting over separate regions of the North Sea, arise as most important: (1) River run-off from continental Europe explains 50-80% of inter-annual salinity variations at lag 0 in the Southern and German Bights and the Norwegian Trench up to the connection with the North Atlantic, down to the seabed near the coasts and to the deep Norwegian Trench (100 m); (2) Remote variations of salinity in the Rockall Trough explain 70% of salinity variations of the tongue of high salinity in the northwestern North Sea with a lag of one year and down the water column; (3) The Neva discharge explains 60% of salinity changes in Skagerrak and southern Norwegian trench at lag 0. An explanation for this correlation might be the Baltic freshwater outflow being modulated by the Neva discharge through intensification of the estuarine gravitational circulation. We confirmed known relations between river run-off, precipitation over continental Europe, SLP over northern Europe and zonal wind over western Europe. Linked to these changes, we found also changes of meridional wind north of Scotland favoring eastward Ekman transport of salty North Atlantic waters into the North Sea off the Norwegian coast. Excluding this only case, we found no significant correlation between wind-driven currents and North Sea salinity changes

  7. Space-time variability of Indonesian rainfall at inter-annual and multi-decadal time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yanto; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith

    2016-11-01

    We investigated the space-time variability of wet (Nov-Apr) and dry (May-Oct) season rainfall over Indonesia, using monthly gridded rainfall data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit covering the period 1901-2012. Three complimentary techniques were employed—(1) principal component analysis to identify the dominant modes of variability, (2) wavelet spectral analysis to identify the spectral characteristics of the leading modes and their coherence with large scale climate variables and (3) Bayesian Dynamical Linear Model (BDLM) to quantify the temporal variability of the association between rainfall modes and climate variables. In the dry season when the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is to the north of the equator the leading two principal components (PCs) explain close to 50 % of the rainfall. In the wet season the ITCZ moves to the south and the leading PCs explain close to 30 % of the variance. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the driver of the leading modes of rainfall variability during both seasons. We find asymmetry in the teleconnections of ENSO to high and low rainfall years in the dry season. Furthermore, ENSO and the leading PCs of rainfall have spectral coherence in the inter-annual band (2-8 years) over the entire period of record and in the multi-decadal (8-16 years) band in post-1980 years. In addition, during the 1950-1980 period the second mode of variability in both seasons has a strong relationship with Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The association between ENSO and the leading mode of Indonesian rainfall has strengthened in recent decades, more so during dry season. These inter-annual and multi-decadal variability of Indonesian rainfall modulated by Pacific climate drivers has implications for rainfall and hydrologic predictability important for water resources management.

  8. Inter-annual variability in the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide and water vapor in adjacent pine and hardwood forests: links to drought, disturbance, and seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novick, K. A.; Ward, E. J.; Oishi, A. C.; Stoy, P. C.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding the variation in long-term biosphere-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and water vapor is necessary to characterize the benefits and services of terrestrial ecosystems, including the highly productive forests of the Southeastern United States. This study quantifies flux variability at inter-annual times scales using eight-year eddy covariance records from two co-located ecosystems in the Duke Forest (North Carolina, USA): a hardwood deciduous forest (HW) and a pine plantation (PP), which together represent the dominant forest types in the region. When averaged across the study period, annual net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) was similar in PP and HW (NEE = -560 and -520 g C m-2 y-1 in PP and HW, respectively). Variation in annual NEE was high in both ecosystems, but higher in the pine site (CV = 0.38) as compared to the hardwood site (CV = 0.23). Gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), which together represent the primary components of NEE, were not necessarily more variable in the pine site; however, the coupling between annual GEP and RE was weaker in PP as compared to HW, contributing to higher overall variability in PP NEE. Our results identify at least two factors contributing to this decoupling: 1) an ice storm event, which reduced PP GEP while increasing or having no effect on PP RE, and 2) two severe drought events, which cause large reductions in PP GEP but not RE. Additionally, in both ecosystems, variability in GEP and NEE is strongly related to the length of the active season (r2 = 0.60 - 0.93), a variable reflecting the seasonality of carbon assimilation that is largely independent from patterns of leaf area development.

  9. Effects of seasonal and inter-annual land cover changes on the hydrology of the Upper Ganges basin, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsarouchi, G.; Mijic, A.; Buytaert, W.

    2013-12-01

    In recent decades India has undergone substantial environmental change. The expansion of agricultural land area to meet the demand of a rapidly increasing population and the increasing intensification of groundwater extractions have led to an alarming drop in the water table levels. The recent floods over northern India have raised concerns about how the regional climate variations and human induced changes in landscape are influencing the temporal dynamics of climate-surface-groundwater interactions. Earlier work by the authors developed high-resolution land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery, for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. These maps were used to drive the distributed version of the land surface model JULES in order to investigate the impact of inter-annual land cover changes in the hydrology of the Upper Ganges (UG) river basin in India. However, JULES in its current version does not simulate crop growth. Since 60% of the study area is occupied by agriculture, the model was improved with routines that allow for dynamic representation of crop growth. The parametrization was done for the two main crops of the UG basin (wheat and rice), allowing for 2 cropping seasons per year. The impact of seasonal and inter-annual land cover changes was investigated by calculating variations in hydrological components such as stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture. The results show that the seasonal cycle is changing a lot when crop growth is taken into account, whereas annual fluxes do not change much. The dynamic coupling of land-surface schemes and crop models is an essential step toward the analysis of future changes of water resources in India caused by climate change, land use change, and potential interactions between both. This is a prerequisite for constructing decision support tools for regional land-use planning and management.

  10. Seasonal, inter-annual and decadal drivers of tree and grass productivity in an Australian tropical savanna.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, C.; Beringer, J.; Hutley, L. B.; Evans, B. J.; Tapper, N. J.; Donohue, R. J.; Exbrayat, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Tree-grass savannas are a widespread biome and are highly valued for their ecosystem services. Natural or anthropogenic shifts in the savanna tree-grass ratio have wide-reaching implications for food production, timber harvesting, biodiversity, the water cycle and carbon sequestration. It is important to understand the long-term dynamics and drivers of both tree and grass productivity separately, in order to successfully manage savannas in the future. This study investigates the inter-annual variability (IAV) of tree (overstory) and grass (understory) productivity at the Howard Springs OzFlux/Fluxnet site by combining a long-term (15 year) eddy covariance flux record and DIFFUSE model estimates of tree and grass productivity inferred from satellite remote sensing. On a seasonal basis, the primary drivers of overstory and understory productivity were solar radiation in the wet season and soil moisture in the dry season, with deeper soil layers becoming more important as the dry season progressed. On an inter-annual basis, variability in the amount of annual rainfall and length of the rainy season determined soil water availability, which had a positive effect on overstory productivity and a negative effect on understory productivity. No linear trend in the tree-grass ratio was observed over the 15-year study period, indicating that woody encroachment was not occurring to a significant degree at the study site. However, the tree-grass ratio was well correlated with modes of climate variability, namely the Southern Oscillation Index. This study has provided important insight into the long-term contributions of trees and grasses to savanna productivity, along with the respective drivers of IAV. The results will contribute towards model development and building better links with remote sensing techniques in order to more comprehensively monitor savanna structure and function across space and time.

  11. Inter- and intra-annual variations of transpiration at a rubber stand in lowland of central Cambodia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Nakako; Kumagai, Tomo'omi; Miyazawa, Yoshiyuki; Matsumoto, Kazuho; Tateishi, Makiko; Tiva, Lim Khan; Mudd, Ryan; Giambelluca, Thomas; Song, Yin

    2013-04-01

    In Southeast Asia, rubber plantation is rapidly expanding, and thus understanding the level of water consumption and tree physiology is a matter of importance to know the impacts on the local hydrology. Intra- and inter-annual variations in transpiration rate (Et) at a rubber stand, growing in lowland of central Cambodia, were examined during two years based on sap flow measurements. As for seasonality, Et was generally large in the rainy season and small in the dry season, showing sharp short-time drop in synchronization with the shedding in late January. Daily stand Et was ~ 2.0 mm day-1 in 2010 and ~ 2.4 mm day-1 in 2011 at the maximum. An analysis of non-linear multiple regression for the canopy conductance (gc) in the two years showed that the stomatal response of rubber trees was well explained by the changes in solar radiation, vapour pressure deficit, soil moisture availability, leaf area, and tree diameter. Sensitivity of gc to the atmospheric drought indicates isohydric behavior of rubber trees, while the same analysis for each year showed possibility of change in leaf characteristics due to tree maturity and/or initiation of latex tapping. The best fit model also predicted relatively small sensitivity of gc to the soil moisture deficit and rapid decrease in gc under extreme drought conditions. Annual stand Et estimated with the gc obtained in the present analysis was 469 mm yr-1 in 2010, while it increased up to 658 mm yr-1 in 2011. To find out the most important environmental variables, we examined the effect of each variable by keeping the others unchanged. This hypothesis analysis showed that in the young rubber stand which were growing very rapidly, inter-annual change of stand Et was determined mainly by the tree growth rate, not by the change of surrounding environments in the air and the soil.

  12. Low Spatial and Inter-Annual Variability in Evaporation from an Intensively Grazed Temperate Pasture System in New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pronger, J.; Campbell, D.; Clearwater, M.; Rutledge, S.; Wall, A.; Schipper, L. A.

    2015-12-01

    Ecosystem scale measurements of evaporation (E) from intensively managed pasture systems are scarce and are important for informing water resource decision making, drought forecasting, and validation of Earth system models and remote sensing. We measured E from intensively grazed, unirrigated, ryegrass and clover pasture in New Zealand using eddy covariance (EC) for three years (2012 - 2014). Spatial variation in E was less than 3% during the initial study period when up to three sites were operating simultaneously. Inter-annual variability was also less than 3% over the three consecutive years (710 - 730 mm) at one site. The absence of spatial and inter-annul variation largely occurred because E was strongly controlled by net radiation (daytime half-hourly data r2 = 0.83, p < 0.01) which was relatively consistent between sites and years. However, soil moisture decreased surface conductance during seasonal drought constraining E relative to net radiation. Variation in drought severity between years caused variation in seasonal E between years, for example, a relatively severe autumn drought in 2013 reduced E over autumn by 13% compared to 2012. Coincidentally, two unusually large spring and early summer rainfall events during warm conditions later in 2013 increased summer E by 12% compared to 2012 and therefore similar annual totals were measured between years. The FAO56 Penman-Monteith model was able to accurately predict daily E over an annual cycle (r2 = 0.81) to within 5 % of measured cumulative E with a crop factor of 0.96 (determined under non water-limiting conditions) and a water stress coefficient to account for soil moisture restrictions. Intensive grazing events, that remove a large fraction of standing pasture biomass, were found to have no effect on evaporation. The absence of a grazing effect suggests that leaf area was not an important control of E, likely because increases in soil E were able to compensate for decreased transpiration.

  13. [Spatial distribution of wintering Engraulis japonicus and its relationship with the inter-annual variations of water temperature in central and southern Yellow Sea].

    PubMed

    Niu, Ming-Xiang; Li, Xian-Sen; Zhao, Geng-Xing

    2012-02-01

    Abstract: This paper studied the inter-annual variations in the spatial distribution of wintering anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in central and southern Yellow Sea, based on the 1986-2010 bottom trawl survey data and related sea surface temperature (SST) data obtained by remote sensing, and approached the relationships between the inter-annual variations in the spatial distribution of the wintering anchovy and the SST, by using GIS technique, spatial analysis and correlation analysis. In 1986-2010, the wintering anchovy in the study area had apparent inter-annual variations in spatial distribution, with its abundance dropped to the lowest level and its distribution moved shoreward in 2004, and the abundance rebounded and centralized in the eastern waters in 2010. The centralized distribution regions of the anchovy's capture locations and stock density in longitudinal and latitudinal directions also had apparent inter-annual variations. There was a significant correlation between the latitude of the anchovy's stock density center and the mean latitude of the representative isotherms, suggesting that the variations in water temperature had effects on the latitudinal distribution of the wintering anchovy, and whether the anchovy distributed shoreward or not was determined by the inter-annual variations of Yellow Sea Warm Current. Among the factors affecting the anchovy distribution, fishing pressure was the main factor affecting the changes in anchovy abundance, and water temperature mainly determined the changes in anchovy spatial distribution.

  14. Inter-annual variation in the response of leaf-out onset to soil moisture increase in a teak plantation in northern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Yoshifuji, Natsuko; Igarashi, Yasunori; Tanaka, Nobuaki; Tanaka, Katsunori; Sato, Takanori; Tantasirin, Chatchai; Suzuki, Masakazu

    2014-11-01

    To understand the impact of inter-annual climate change on vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges, it has become necessary to explore changes in leaf-out onset in response to climatic fluctuations. We examined the response of leaf-out and transpiration onset dates to soil moisture in a teak plantation in northern Thailand based on a 12-year leaf area index and sap flow measurements. The date of leaf-out and transpiration onset varied between years by up to 40 days, and depended on the initial date when the relative extractable water in a soil layer of 0-0.6 m (Θ) was greater than 0.2 being consistent with our previous results. Our new finding is that the delay in leaf-out and transpiration onset relative to the initial date when Θ > 0.2 increases linearly as the initial date on which Θ > 0.2 becomes earlier. The delay spans about 20 days in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in March (the late dry season)-much earlier than usual because of heavy pre-monsoon rainfalls-while there is little delay in years when Θ > 0.2 occurs in May. This delay indicates the influence of additional factors on leaf-out onset, which controls the delay in the response of leaf-out to soil moisture increase. The results increased our knowledge about the pattern and extent of the changes in leaf phenology that occur in response to the inter-annual climate variation in tropical regions, where, in particular, such research is needed.

  15. Relative Contribution of Major Ecoregions to Inter-annual and Seasonal Variability of Terrestrial Ecosystems Gross Primary Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafique, R.; Asrar, G.; Zeng, N.; Kalnay, E.; Fang, Z.; West, T. O.

    2016-12-01

    The gross primary productivity (GPP) is commonly used for understanding the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems and their role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we used a combination of MODIS GPP and model-based GPP estimates from eight ISIMIP models for the period of 2001-2010 to study the role of five major ecoregions (China, EU, USA, Amazon and Sahel) in regulating the variability of global GPP. The total global GPP estimated by MODIS (119.1 Pg C y-1) was 14.4 % higher than the total GPP estimated by models ensemble mean (104.1 Pg C yr-1). A moderate consistency between global MODIS and models ensemble mean GPP was observed at inter-annual scale. Among five ecoregions, the Amazon (R = 0.83) and USA (R = 0.80) showed the highest correlation between MODIS and models ensemble mean GPP. At the seasonal scale, consistency between the global MODIS and models ensemble mean GPP was stronger (R=0.99). Among the ecoregions, EU, USA and China showed the highest correlations between MODIS and models ensemble mean GPP, respectively. At inter-annual scale, all five ecoregions contributed, 42.4% based on MODIS and 46.3% based on ensemble, to the global GPP variability. Similarly, at seasonal scale, all five ecoregions contributed, 43.3% based on MODIS and 47.3% based on ensemble, to the global GPP variability. Overall, the Amazon and Sahel contributed the most in controlling the inter-annual and seasonal variability of GPP. Mean seasonal GPP were found to be higher in June, July and August while lower in December, January and February. However, MODIS showed higher GPP than ensemble in all seasons. All models showed discrepancies at various spatiotemporal scales. JULES and DLEM showed much higher GPP values in the tropical areas. The variations among the eight models in simulating GPP are mainly due to the differences in their structures. The model that used Big Leaf process for GPP estimation performed differently than those that used Enzyme Kinetic and Light Use

  16. Functional patterns in an annual grassland during an AVIRIS overflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gamon, John A.; Field, Christopher B.; Roberts, Dar A.; Ustin, Susan L.; Valentini, Riccardo

    1993-01-01

    This study relates Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) imagery to ground measurements of vegetation distribution, physiology, and productivity at Stanford University's Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve. Primary efforts focused on a 9-ha region of annual grassland where we completed a detailed ground-based study in conjunction with a 15 May 1991 AVIRIS overflight. Spectral mixture analysis and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) calculated from AVIRIS data were used to evaluate spatial patterns of vegetation type, productivity, and potential physiological activity. Concurrent ground sampling revealed a high degree of correlation between NDVI and estimates of canopy chemistry, structure, productivity, and CO2 flux, supporting the use of imaging spectrometry to estimate spatial and temporal trends in vegetation physiology and productivity in this relatively simple grassland ecosystem. Geostatistical analyses of both ground and AVIRIS data supported the conclusion that the AVIRIS pixel size was suitable for describing the influence of major landscape features in this grassland and that spatial detail would be lost at slightly larger pixel sizes typical of other imaging spectrometers.

  17. CO2 fluxes at northern fens and bogs have opposite responses to inter-annual fluctuations in water table

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sulman, Benjamin N.; Desai, Ankur R.; Saliendra, Nicanor Z.; Lafleur, Peter M.; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Sonnentag, Oliver; Mackay, D. Scott; Barr, Alan G.; van der Kamp, Garth

    2010-10-01

    This study compares eddy-covariance measurements of carbon dioxide fluxes at six northern temperate and boreal peatland sites in Canada and the northern United States of America, representing both bogs and fens. The two peatland types had opposite responses of gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) to inter-annual fluctuations in water table level. At fens, wetter conditions were correlated with lower GEP and ER, while at bogs wetter conditions were correlated with higher GEP and ER. We hypothesize that these contrasting responses are due to differences in the relative contributions of vascular plants and mosses. The coherence of our results between sites representing a range of average environmental conditions indicates ecosystem-scale differences in resilience to hydrological changes that should be taken into account when considering the future of peatland ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions.

  18. Inter-annual rainfall variations and suicide in New South Wales, Australia, 1964-2001.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Neville; Butler, Colin D; Hanigan, Ivan

    2006-01-01

    The suicide rate in New South Wales is shown to be related to annual precipitation, supporting a widespread and long-held assumption that drought in Australia increases the likelihood of suicide. The relationship, although statistically significant, is not especially strong and is confounded by strong, long-term variations in the suicide rate not related to precipitation variations. A decrease in precipitation of about 300 mm would lead to an increase in the suicide rate of approximately 8% of the long-term mean suicide rate.

  19. Inter-annual rainfall variations and suicide in New South Wales, Australia, 1964-2001

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, Neville; Butler, Colin D.; Hanigan, Ivan

    2006-01-01

    The suicide rate in New South Wales is shown to be related to annual precipitation, supporting a widespread and long-held assumption that drought in Australia increases the likelihood of suicide. The relationship, although statistically significant, is not especially strong and is confounded by strong, long-term variations in the suicide rate not related to precipitation variations. A decrease in precipitation of about 300 mm would lead to an increase in the suicide rate of approximately 8% of the long-term mean suicide rate.

  20. Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock

    PubMed Central

    Fernandes, Lohengrin Dias de Almeida; Fagundes Netto, Eduardo Barros; Coutinho, Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    Currently, spatial and temporal changes in nutrients availability, marine planktonic, and fish communities are best described on a shorter than inter-annual (seasonal) scale, primarily because the simultaneous year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and biological parameters are very complex. The limited availability of time series datasets furnishing simultaneous evaluations of temperature, nutrients, plankton, and fish have limited our ability to describe and to predict variability related to short-term process, as species-specific phenology and environmental seasonality. In the present study, we combine a computational time series analysis on a 15-year (1995–2009) weekly-sampled time series (high-resolution long-term time series, 780 weeks) with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to track non-seasonal changes in 10 potentially related parameters: sea surface temperature, nutrient concentrations (NO2, NO3, NH4 and PO4), phytoplankton biomass (as in situ chlorophyll a biomass), meroplankton (barnacle and mussel larvae), and fish abundance (Mugil liza and Caranx latus). Our data demonstrate for the first time that highly intense and frequent upwelling years initiate a huge energy flux that is not fully transmitted through classical size-structured food web by bottom-up stimulus but through additional ontogenetic steps. A delayed inter-annual sequential effect from phytoplankton up to top predators as carnivorous fishes is expected if most of energy is trapped into benthic filter feeding organisms and their larval forms. These sequential events can explain major changes in ecosystem food web that were not predicted in previous short-term models. PMID:28886162

  1. Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

  2. Inter-annual cascade effect on marine food web: A benthic pathway lagging nutrient supply to pelagic fish stock.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Lohengrin Dias de Almeida; Fagundes Netto, Eduardo Barros; Coutinho, Ricardo

    2017-01-01

    Currently, spatial and temporal changes in nutrients availability, marine planktonic, and fish communities are best described on a shorter than inter-annual (seasonal) scale, primarily because the simultaneous year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and biological parameters are very complex. The limited availability of time series datasets furnishing simultaneous evaluations of temperature, nutrients, plankton, and fish have limited our ability to describe and to predict variability related to short-term process, as species-specific phenology and environmental seasonality. In the present study, we combine a computational time series analysis on a 15-year (1995-2009) weekly-sampled time series (high-resolution long-term time series, 780 weeks) with an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to track non-seasonal changes in 10 potentially related parameters: sea surface temperature, nutrient concentrations (NO2, NO3, NH4 and PO4), phytoplankton biomass (as in situ chlorophyll a biomass), meroplankton (barnacle and mussel larvae), and fish abundance (Mugil liza and Caranx latus). Our data demonstrate for the first time that highly intense and frequent upwelling years initiate a huge energy flux that is not fully transmitted through classical size-structured food web by bottom-up stimulus but through additional ontogenetic steps. A delayed inter-annual sequential effect from phytoplankton up to top predators as carnivorous fishes is expected if most of energy is trapped into benthic filter feeding organisms and their larval forms. These sequential events can explain major changes in ecosystem food web that were not predicted in previous short-term models.

  3. Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

    2017-05-01

    Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

  4. Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

    2017-05-01

    Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

  5. Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

  6. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management

    PubMed Central

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while Reco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods. PMID:24383047

  7. Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

    2014-01-01

    Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

  8. Reconciling intra and inter annual oxygen isotope variability in the White Mountain Bristlecone Pine chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkelhammer, M.; Stott, L. D.

    2008-12-01

    The δ18O of tree-ring cellulose is a function of both the isotopic composition of the soil water and the climatic conditions at the leaf boundary, which affect the magnitude of oxygen isotope fractionations during photosynthesis. Separating the dual-influence of water isotope composition and environmental influences on the final cellulosic product remains a serious challenge in attempts to utilize the cellulosic data for climate reconstructions. In many alpine environments such as the White Mountains of California, the isotopic composition of the soil water pool is established by winter-time precipitation whereas tree growth occurs months later during summer. In this location the δ18O of cellulose has both a winter precipitation influence and a summer environmental influence and the two may vary independently. We utilize 2 isotopic datasets from the White Mountain Bristlecone Pine chronology to argue that the year to year δ18O variations in homogenized whole-ring (early and late wood) cellulose captures the source water (winter) signature while the within-ring isotope variations reflect a systematic response to growing seasonal climate conditions. Thus, by comparing the shape and amplitude of the intra-annual isotope cycle we can distinguish changes in growing season temperature and humidity from year to year or low frequency changes in the isotopic composition of the source water. The intra-annual data for this study utilized over 40 annual growth rings that were sub-sampled at a near-weekly resolution (6-12 samples per ring). We selected wood that grew during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age, and an extended drought period at 2ky BP in order to evaluate how growing-season conditions differed between these distinct climatic intervals. The data exhibit a pervasive intra annual cycle whose amplitude and shape remains fairly constant irrespective of the width or the mean isotopic composition of the ring. We are able to generate a similar intra

  9. Evaluating Inter-Annual Climate Variability of Nitrogen Wet Deposition in the United States Using Wavelet Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nergui, T.; Thomas, N.; Liu, M.; Lamb, B. K.; Adam, J. C.; Chung, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    Human activities, primarily agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, have caused a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The increase in emission subsequently leads to elevated ozone concentration, haze, increased acid rain and N deposition at local and regional scales. Many ecosystems in the US are naturally N limited. These regions are highly vulnerable to increased N deposition which can lead to irreversible changes in biodiversity richness and composition of the ecosystems. Through the impact on atmospheric chemistry and scavenging by precipitation, climate variability can play a major role on N deposition rates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) indices are the key climate indices that characterize the climate in the contiguous US at inter-annual timescale. Here, we identify dominant periodic components (signal) in the N wet deposition and the climate index timeseries and examine their correlations and coherences using wavelet analysis. Seasonal precipitation and nitrogen (ammonium and nitrate) wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), National Trends Network (NTN) for 87 sites across the United States are used for the study. The sites were selected based on data continuity of 21 years or more and NADP criteria for valid precipitation and wet deposition data. Precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are also used to replicate and validate the general features of climate variability effects in different regions of US. Initial analysis reveals nitrate wet deposition has a dominant 1-4 year periodicity while ammonium wet deposition has a shorter periodicity (about 0.5-2 year) during 1979 to 2011. Precipitation and total N wet deposition are most correlated in the Great Plains

  10. Regional contributions to seasonal and inter-annual polar motion variations from atmosphere, ocean and continental hydrosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert; Brzezinski, Aleksander; Thomas, Maik

    2010-05-01

    Daily effective angular momentum functions from atmosphere, oceans, and continental hydrosphere that are consistent in terms of global mass conservation among the sub-systems are obtained from atmospheric data the most recent ECMWF re-analysis ERA Interim and corresponding simulations with the hydrological model LSDM and the ocean model OMCT covering 1989 - 2008. Correlations between simulations and geodetic excitation functions based on the EOP C04 polar motion series are generally improving when considering oceanic and even continental effects in addition to the atmosphere, with correlation coefficients that exceed values of 0.8 during the most recent years. While contributions to the annual wobble are found to be of similar amplitude and phase as in previous studies, both seasonal averaged and inter-annual variations are able to capture the main characteristics of individual peaks in the corresponding geodetic excitation functions. By decomposing the simulated global angular momentum functions into their regional contributions, atmospheric and oceanic pressure and current distributions in accordance with continental water storage variations are shown to be of similar importance for polar motion excitation on seasonal time-scales, whereas continental water flow contributions to the relative angular momentum of the Earth have been found to be three orders of magnitude lower than the corresponding effect of water storage changes. The data-sets discussed here are publicly available via the restructured Geophysical Fluids Center of the IERS.

  11. Inter-annual variation in American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) plumage colour is associated with rainfall and temperature during moult: an 11-year study.

    PubMed

    Reudink, Matthew W; McKellar, Ann E; Marini, Kristen L D; McArthur, Sarah L; Marra, Peter P; Ratcliffe, Laurene M

    2015-05-01

    Carotenoid-based colouration plays an important role in sexual signaling in animals as an honest indicator of individual quality during mate choice and competitive interactions. However, few studies have examined how natural variation in weather conditions influences inter-annual variation in the expression of ornamentation, potentially through affecting the dietary availability of carotenoids. In this study, we examine variation in the expression of carotenoid-based plumage colouration in relation to temperature and rainfall during the pre-moulting and moulting period over 11 years in a population of American redstarts, Setophaga ruticilla, breeding in eastern Canada. We used reflectance spectrometry of tail feathers collected from male and female redstarts to relate feather colour with weather conditions the previous breeding season during the months over which redstarts are likely to moult (June-September). At a population level, birds expressed feathers with higher red chroma and lower brightness in years following high July rainfall and low August temperature. The pattern was stronger in males, but was generally consistent across ages and sexes. Analyses of feathers from repeatedly captured birds indicated that the above patterns could be explained by individual change in feather colour. We suggest that higher rainfall during the moulting period may increase insect abundance and the availability of dietary carotenoids. This is among the first studies to show effects of weather conditions on a sexual signalling trait, which may have important consequences for sexual selection, mate choice, and the reliability of putative signals.

  12. Spatial and inter-annual variability of the macrobenthic communities within a coastal lagoon (Óbidos lagoon) and its relationship with environmental parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carvalho, Susana; Moura, Ana; Gaspar, Miguel B.; Pereira, Paula; Cancela da Fonseca, Luís; Falcão, Manuela; Drago, Teresa; Leitão, Francisco; Regala, João

    2005-05-01

    The present work aims to analyse spatial and inter-annual variability in the benthic environment within the Óbidos lagoon, assessing the relationships between environmental characteristics and macrobenthic distribution patterns. Sediment samples were collected in February 2001 and 2002 for the study of macrofauna and biogeochemical parameters (sediment grain size, organic matter, organic carbon, chlorophyll a, and phaeopigments). Comparing 2001 to 2002, a general increase in the number of species, diversity and equitability indices was observed throughout the study area. Likewise, there was an increase of phytopigments and organic matter contents in the upper sediment layer. Based on the macrobenthic community patterns and environmental variables three main areas could be distinguished in both years: an outer area near the inlet mostly influenced by the sea, with very depressed number of species and abundance, and dominated by Saccocirrus papillocercus, Lekanesphaera levii, Microphthalmus similis and Nephtys cirrosa; an intermediate area located in the central part of the lagoon characterized by sandy sediment and low organic carbon, and colonized by a high diverse community with Hydrobia ulvae, Cerastoderma edule and Abra ovata as the most characteristic species; and the innermost area of the lagoon with muddy enriched sediments dominated by Heteromastus filiformis, oligochaetes, Scrobicularia plana, Cyathura carinata, Corophium acherusicum, phoronids, insect larvae and Corbula gibba. Deposit-feeders were dominant in the muddy sediments from the inner area, where suspension-feeders were also abundant. Carnivores were associated with clean sandy sediments from the inlet area and herbivores were more abundant within the central area.

  13. Inter-Annual Variability of Fledgling Sex Ratio in King Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Viblanc, Vincent A.; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Beaugey, Magali; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

    2014-01-01

    As the number of breeding pairs depends on the adult sex ratio in a monogamous species with biparental care, investigating sex-ratio variability in natural populations is essential to understand population dynamics. Using 10 years of data (2000–2009) in a seasonally monogamous seabird, the king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), we investigated the annual sex ratio at fledging, and the potential environmental causes for its variation. Over more than 4000 birds, the annual sex ratio at fledging was highly variable (ranging from 44.4% to 58.3% of males), and on average slightly biased towards males (51.6%). Yearly variation in sex-ratio bias was neither related to density within the colony, nor to global or local oceanographic conditions known to affect both the productivity and accessibility of penguin foraging areas. However, rising sea surface temperature coincided with an increase in fledging sex-ratio variability. Fledging sex ratio was also correlated with difference in body condition between male and female fledglings. When more males were produced in a given year, their body condition was higher (and reciprocally), suggesting that parents might adopt a sex-biased allocation strategy depending on yearly environmental conditions and/or that the effect of environmental parameters on chick condition and survival may be sex-dependent. The initial bias in sex ratio observed at the juvenile stage tended to return to 1∶1 equilibrium upon first breeding attempts, as would be expected from Fisher’s classic theory of offspring sex-ratio variation. PMID:25493708

  14. Inter-annual variation of NDVI over Korea Peninsula using harmonic analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, In-hwan; Han, Kyung-Soo; Pi, Kyoung-Jin; Park, Soo-Jae; Kim, Sang-Il

    2010-10-01

    Global warming and climatic changes due to human activities impact on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, which feedbacks to climate system. These negative feedbacks amplify or accelerate again global climate change. In particular, life cycle of vegetation sensitively vary according to global climate change. This study attempts to analyze quantitatively vegetation change in Korea peninsula using harmonic analysis. Satellite data was extracted from SPOT/VEGETATION S10 MVC (Maximum Value Composite) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) products during 10 years (1999 to 2008) around Korea peninsula. This NDVI data set was pre-processed to correct noise pixels cause by cloud and ground wetness. Variation of vegetation life cycle was analyzed through amplitudes and phases of annual harmonic components (first harmonic components) per year for two land cover types (cropland and forest). The results clearly show that the peak of vegetation life cycle in Korea peninsula is brought forward to early. Especially, it represents that the phases over low latitudes area between 32.8°N and 38°N steadily decrease every year both forest and cropland. The study estimated that phase values moved up approximately 0.5 day per year in cropland and 0.8 day per year in forest.

  15. Inter-Annual Variations of Methane Emission from an Open Fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A Three-Year Study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Huai; Wu, Ning; Wang, Yanfen; Zhu, Dan; Zhu, Qiu’an; Yang, Gang; Gao, Yongheng; Fang, Xiuqin; Wang, Xu; Peng, Changhui

    2013-01-01

    The study aimed to understand the inter-annual variations of methane (CH4) emissions from an open fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from 2005 to 2007. The weighted mean CH4 emission rate was 8.37±11.32 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 during the summers from 2005 to 2007, falling in the range of CH4 fluxes reported by other studies, with significant inter-annual and spatial variations. The CH4 emissions of the year of 2006 (2.11±3.48 mg CH4 m−2 h−1) were 82% lower than the mean value of the years 2005 and 2007 (13.91±17.80 mg CH4 m−2 h−1 and 9.44±14.32 mg CH4 m−2 h−1, respectively), responding to the inter-annual changes of standing water depths during the growing season of the three years. Significant drawdown of standing water depth is believed to cause such significant reduction in CH4 emissions from wetlands in the year 2006, probably through changing the methanogen composition and decreasing its community size as well as activating methanotrophs to enhance CH4 oxidation. Our results are helpful to understand the inter-annual variations of CH4 emission and provide a more reasonable regional budget of CH4 emission from wetlands on the QTP and even for world-wide natural wetlands under climate change. PMID:23342029

  16. Inter-Annual and Shorter-Term Variability in Physical and Biological Characteristics Across Barrow Canyon in August - September 2005-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashjian, C. J.; Okkonen, S. R.; Campbell, R. G.; Alatalo, P.

    2014-12-01

    Late summer physical and biological conditions along a 37-km transect crossing Barrow Canyon have been described for the past ten years as part of an ongoing program, supported by multiple funding sources including the NSF AON, focusing on inter-annual variability and the formation of a bowhead whale feeding hotspot near Barrow. These repeated transects (at least two per year, separated in time by days-weeks) provide an opportunity to assess the inter-annual and shorter term (days-weeks) changes in hydrographic structure, ocean temperature, current velocity and transport, chlorophyll fluorescence, nutrients, and micro- and mesozooplankton community composition and abundance. Inter-annual variability in all properties was high and was associated with larger scale, meteorological forcing. Shorter-term variability could also be high but was strongly influenced by changes in local wind forcing. The sustained sampling at this location provided critical measures of inter-annual variability that should permit detection of longer-term trends that are associated with ongoing climate change.

  17. Inter-annual variations of methane emission from an open fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: a three-year study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Huai; Wu, Ning; Wang, Yanfen; Zhu, Dan; Zhu, Qiu'an; Yang, Gang; Gao, Yongheng; Fang, Xiuqin; Wang, Xu; Peng, Changhui

    2013-01-01

    The study aimed to understand the inter-annual variations of methane (CH(4)) emissions from an open fen on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from 2005 to 2007. The weighted mean CH(4) emission rate was 8.37±11.32 mg CH(4) m(-2 )h(-1) during the summers from 2005 to 2007, falling in the range of CH(4) fluxes reported by other studies, with significant inter-annual and spatial variations. The CH(4) emissions of the year of 2006 (2.11±3.48 mg CH(4) m(-2 )h(-1)) were 82% lower than the mean value of the years 2005 and 2007 (13.91±17.80 mg CH(4) m(-2 )h(-1) and 9.44±14.32 mg CH(4) m(-2 )h(-1), respectively), responding to the inter-annual changes of standing water depths during the growing season of the three years. Significant drawdown of standing water depth is believed to cause such significant reduction in CH(4) emissions from wetlands in the year 2006, probably through changing the methanogen composition and decreasing its community size as well as activating methanotrophs to enhance CH(4) oxidation. Our results are helpful to understand the inter-annual variations of CH(4) emission and provide a more reasonable regional budget of CH(4) emission from wetlands on the QTP and even for world-wide natural wetlands under climate change.

  18. Influence of Global Climate Indices and Inter-annual Wind Speed Variability in the UAE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naizghi, M. S.; Ouarda, T.

    2016-12-01

    Wind is becoming one of the world's most favourable source of sustainable energy. Its stochastic nature, however, is a challenge to fully exploit its potential. To overcome this limitation, a number of studies focusing on modelling the character of wind were conducted but few explored the effect of large-scale climatological factors on wind distribution and variation. The present study aims to: first, examine the variability and change points in wind speed time series data. Second, identify the teleconnections between the wind speed and climate indices by applying wavelet coherence analysis. Third, develop multiple linear regression models to represent wind speed as a function of climate indices. The study is carried out using wind speed data collected from six ground stations in the UAE and a reanalysis gridded dataset. Continuous wavelet analysis on the wind speed indicated annual periodicity in all stations and biannual in three. Trend analysis using Modified Mann-Kendall test and linear regression showed that half of the stations have a significant trend at the 5% level. Cumulative sum and Bayesian change detection analysis revealed all stations, except one, exhibited change points with statistical significance level of 5%. Wavelet coherence analysis demonstrated that wind speed in the UAE is mainly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). NAO and EAO simultaneously modulate wind speed in the summer while ENSO and IOD influence winter and autumn wind speeds. Step-wise multiple linear regression models developed to select appropriate predictors among the various climate indices resulted in limited success. Further work on predictive models using non-linear models and generalized additive model are being explored. Keywords: Climate indices, teleconnections, wavelet analysis, wind speed variability, trend analysis, change point, UAE.

  19. Inter-annual and seasonal trends in cetacean distribution, density and abundance off southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Gregory S.; Thomas, Len; Whitaker, Katherine; Douglas, Annie B.; Calambokidis, John; Hildebrand, John A.

    2015-02-01

    Trends in cetacean density and distribution off southern California were assessed through visual line-transect surveys during thirty-seven California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) cruises from July 2004-November 2013. From sightings of the six most commonly encountered cetacean species, seasonal, annual and overall density estimates were calculated. Blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were the most frequently sighted baleen whales with overall densities of 0.91/1000 km2 (CV=0.27), 2.73/1000 km2 (CV=0.19), and 1.17/1000 km2 (CV=0.21) respectively. Species specific density estimates, stratified by cruise, were analyzed using a generalized additive model to estimate long-term trends and correct for seasonal imbalances. Variances were estimated using a non-parametric bootstrap with one day of effort as the sampling unit. Blue whales were primarily observed during summer and fall while fin and humpback whales were observed year-round with peaks in density during summer and spring respectively. Short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis), Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) and Dall's porpoise (Phocoenoidesdalli) were the most frequently encountered small cetaceans with overall densities of 705.83/1000 km2 (CV=0.22), 51.98/1000 km2 (CV=0.27), and 21.37/1000 km2 (CV=0.19) respectively. Seasonally, short-beaked common dolphins were most abundant in winter whereas Pacific white-sided dolphins and Dall's porpoise were most abundant during spring. There were no significant long-term changes in blue whale, fin whale, humpback whale, short-beaked common dolphin or Dall's porpoise densities while Pacific white-sided dolphins exhibited a significant decrease in density across the ten-year study. The results from this study were fundamentally consistent with earlier studies, but provide greater temporal and seasonal resolution.

  20. Climatic Effects on the Inter-Annual Variability of Carbon Fluxes for North America and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomelleri, E.; Carvalhais, N.; Migliavacca, M.; Reichstein, M.; Fluxnet Lathuille Synthesis Team (Cf. Www. Fluxdata. Org)

    2010-12-01

    The connection between climate variability and global carbon cycle has already been shown to be linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (1). A positive phase of the NAO is associated with more and stronger winter storms crossing the North Atlantic on a more northerly route, causing major anomalies in sea surface temperature, currents and convective activity throughout the North Atlantic. A long-term trend towards very positive values has culminated in the early 1990s, and since then a decreasing trend is happening (1). Identification of the climatic drivers of the net ecosystem fluxes is becoming a rising issue. In particular the effects of year-to-year climate variability on regional budgets and the understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes are of fundamental importance due to the intensification of extreme climatic events like precipitation (2) and drought events (3). We identified the relations between climatic variability (i.e. NAO) and the regional carbon budgets of North America and Europe over the period from 1989 to 2008. In doing this we kept special focus both on temporal and spatial scale. For this purpose we took advantage of the high-density of FLUXNET measurement sites in these areas. We applied a radiation use efficiency model for gross primary production (4) combined with a semi-empirical total ecosystem respiration model (5). As drivers for the model we used climatic and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) records. We utilized in-situ calibrated model parameters to estimate the regional ecosystem carbon fluxes. The model was spatially applied according to the similarity in the climatic-phenological space of each grid pixel with the measurement site to which it was calibrated (e.g., 6). We found that for Europe NAO could explain NEE variability in a reasonable way for northern and southern Europe, but for the mid-latitude region this was not the case. For North America the patterns were less clear

  1. The ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) and monthly and inter annual regional forecasting.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.; Sloman, L.

    2015-12-01

    compare it with actual skill based on hindcasts for monthly, seasonal and annual resolutions. A comparison between our results and previous results using LIM or other GCM's is also shown. The prediction skill obtained for the temperature field have been improved by incorporating some other fields and performing an analogous analysis on the generalized state-vectors.

  2. Inter-annual dynamics of abyssal polychaete communities in the North East Pacific and North East Atlantic—A family-level study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laguionie-Marchais, C.; Billett, D. S. M.; Paterson, G. L. D.; Ruhl, H. A.; Soto, E. H.; Smith, K. L., Jr.; Thatje, S.

    2013-05-01

    Characterising how deep-sea communities change on contemporary time-scales and understanding underlying ecosystem processes has become important under changing climate and the rise in the exploitation of deep-sea resources. However, little is known about these dynamics and processes. Long-term observations from which inter-annual variations can be detected are scarce in the deep sea. This study examines inter-annual changes in density, family richness and evenness, family and functional group rank abundance distributions of infaunal polychaetes at two abyssal stations in the North East Pacific (Station M, 1991 to 2005) and in the North East Atlantic (Porcupine Abyssal Plain, 1991 to 1999). The two long-term data sets were used to investigate not only if polychaete community structure and composition varied at inter-annual scales in terms of diversity and rank abundance distributions but also if any changes were related to previous observations in megafauna and environmental factors at each locality. The polychaete community structure at each locality was analysed using univariate statistics as well as multivariate ordination techniques based on Bray-Curtis similarity of the yearly family density. Sub-surface deposit feeders, such as Paraonidae, dominated the North East Pacific, whereas surface deposit feeders, such as Cirratulidae, dominated the North East Atlantic. Both stations showed inter-annual variations in density, family evenness and rank abundance distributions. The greatest changes occurred in 1998 in both time series when polychaete densities peaked, and switches in the rank abundance of the most abundant families and functional groups took place. Inter-annual variations in the polychaete community were correlated with a limited number of holothurian species changes, but no correlation was found with particulate organic matter flux or climate indices. Ecological and environmental factors behind the family-level changes remain elusive. Overall, changes in

  3. Seasonal and inter-annual changes in mesozooplankton community at Mombetsu Harbor, southern Okhotsk Sea during 1997 to 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arima, D.; Hamaoka, S.; Katakura, S.; Yamaguchi, A.; Imai, I.

    2016-02-01

    To evaluate seasonal and inter-annual changes in zooplankton community, we analyzed mesozooplankton samples collected by vertical tows of 335 μm NORPAC net from 0-8 m depths at Mombetsu Harbor, southern Okhotsk Sea with ca. 1.2 day interval during April 1997 to December 2012. Through 16 years studied, integrated mean temperature and salinity ranged -1.4-19.8 ˚C and 31.5-33.6, respectively. Chl. a exceeded 1 mg m-3 throughout the year, and formed two peaks in March (ice-edge bloom) and May (open water bloom). 183 zooplankton species were identified from the samples. Zooplankton abundance had minimum (1,198 ind. m-3) in January and maximum (7,926 ind. m-3) in April. Cluster analysis (Bray-Curtis method) based on abundance data classified mesozooplankton community into five groups (A-E). Occurrence of each group well corresponded with season. Thus, group A, B, C, D and E was mainly observed during January-March, April-May, June-July, August-October and November-December, respectively. Dominant species was varied with group. Group A, D, E was dominated by copepods Pseudocalanus spp. (A, E) and Paracalanus parvus s. l. (D). While euphausiid eggs and cladocerans (Evadne, Podon and Peniria spp.) were the dominant taxa/species for groups B and C, respectively. As inter-annual changes, following four years were marked. Thus, 2000 and 2005: zooplankton community characterized by cold-water small copepods (group A) extended long period. 2002: Cladoceran dominated warm-water community (group C) started faster and remained long period. 2006: The period of cold-water group B (characterized with euphausiid eggs) was long, while the following warm-water community (group C) was very short. The 16-years zooplankton data set in Mombetsu may be valuable to compare with those collected in the other geographical region. Through these comparisons, recent trends in coastal ecosystem may become clear.

  4. Prokaryoplankton standing stocks in oligotrophic gyre and equatorial provinces of the Atlantic Ocean: Evaluation of inter-annual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heywood, J. L.; Zubkov, M. V.; Tarran, G. A.; Fuchs, B. M.; Holligan, P. M.

    2006-07-01

    Temporal changes of prokaryoplankton in three different provinces of the Atlantic Ocean were examined between 1996 and 2004. The abundance and integrated biomass of three prokaryote groups ( Prochlorococcus spp. , Synechococcus spp. and other prokaryoplankton) were used to detect standing stock changes in the northern and southern oligotrophic gyres and in the equatorial region. Mean cell concentrations (±standard error of the mean) of Prochlorococcus spp., Synechococcus spp. and other prokaryoplankton above the nitracline in the northern oligotrophic gyre were 1.2×10 5 (±0.08), 5.0×10 3 (±1.22) and 0.9×10 6 (±0.03) cells mL -1, respectively. Similar concentrations of 1.2×10 5 (±0.06) Prochlorococcus mL -1, 1.9×10 3 (±0.29) Synechococcus mL -1 and 0.7×10 6 (±0.03) other prokaryoplankton mL -1 were measured in the southern oligotrophic gyre, with higher concentrations of all prokaryote groups in equatorial waters. Integrated biomass (±standard error of the mean) of Prochlorococcus spp. above the nitracline was 173 (±21) mg C m -2 in the northern oligotrophic gyre, 190 (±14) mg C m -2 in the southern oligotrophic gyre and 141 (±15) mg C m -2 in the equatorial region. Synechococcus spp. biomass was lower in each of the three provinces (18 (±2), 17 (±4) and 32 (±5) mg C m -2, respectively). The data showed no statistically significant inter-annual variability in Prochlorococcus or Synechococcus abundance or integrated biomass above the nitracline in any of the provinces. The abundance and biomass of the remaining prokaryoplankton were variable, but these variations could not be ascribed to seasonal differences and did not follow a clear inter-annual trend. In light of results presented here, recommendations on the frequency and spatial resolution of sampling needed to characterise province-scale temporal variability of prokaryoplankton communities have been suggested.

  5. A novel method for diagnosing seasonal to inter-annual surface ocean carbon dynamics from bottle data using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Abramowitz, G.

    2013-06-01

    The ocean's role in modulating the observed 1-7 Pg C yr-1 inter-annual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate is an important, but poorly constrained process due to current spatio-temporal limitations in ocean carbon measurements. Here, we investigate and develop a non-linear empirical approach to predict inorganic CO2 concentrations (total carbon dioxide (CT) and total alkalinity (AT)) in the global ocean mixed layer from hydrographic properties (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and nutrients). The benefit of this approach is that once the empirical relationship is established, it can be applied to hydrographic datasets that have better spatio-temporal coverage, and therefore provide an additional constraint to diagnose ocean carbon dynamics globally. Previous empirical approaches have employed multiple linear regressions (MLR) and relied on ad hoc geographic and temporal partitioning of carbon data to constrain complex global carbon dynamics in the mixed layer. Synthesizing a new global CT/AT carbon bottle dataset consisting of ~33 000 measurements in the open ocean mixed layer, we develop a neural network based approach to better constrain the non-linear carbon system. The approach classifies features in the global biogeochemical dataset based on their similarity and homogeneity in a self-organizing map (SOM; Kohonen, 1988). After the initial SOM analysis, which includes geographic constraints, we apply a local linear optimizer to the neural network, which considerably enhances the predictive skill of the new approach. We call this new approach SOMLO, or self-organizing multiple linear output. Using independent bottle carbon data, we compare a traditional MLR analysis to our SOMLO approach to capture the spatial CT and AT distributions. We find the SOMLO approach improves predictive skill globally by 19% for CT, with a global capacity to predict CT to within 10.9 μmol kg-1 (9.2 μmol kg-1 for AT). The non-linear SOMLO approach is particularly

  6. Using Density Changes over Continental Slopes to Estimate Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability on Inter-annual to Decadal Timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bingham, R. J.

    2016-02-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important element of the global climate system. A number of studies have sought a link between sea level and AMOC variability as a complement to temporally and spatially limited in-situ AMOC monitoring. Coastal sea level is of particular interest as it offers the promise of a relatively inexpensive method of monitoring the AMOC, and a tide gauge based reconstruction of past variability extending back over more than a century. Yet, there is contradictory evidence as to the degree to which AMOC variability influences coastal sea level, calling into question the veracity of coastal sea level-based AMOC proxies. Through geostrophic balance, a more direct link must hold between ocean bottom pressure on the Atlantic's continental slopes and the zonally integrated meridional transport, with pressure changes on the western boundary appearing from modelling studies to be dominant. However, the tendency of bottom pressure recorders to drift over time renders them unsuitable for measuring changes in bottom pressure associated with inter-annual to decadal changes in AMOC strength. As a potential alternative, here we show, in the context of a data-assimilating ocean model, how density observations alone can be used to determine across-slope pressure gradients associated with inter-annual to decadal fluctuations of the AMOC. Thus, according to the model, it may be possible to estimate long-term AMOC variability using only density over the continental slopes. In the North Atlantic, AMOC fluctuations can be determined from density changes over only the western boundary slope, confirming the dominance of this boundary found in previous studies, while in the South Atlantic density changes over both the eastern and the western boundaries is required. Finally the approach is used to estimate of past AMOC variability from observed density fields and this is compared with a tide gauge-based reconstruction. This comparison is

  7. Inter-annual surface evolution of an Antarctic blue-ice moraine using multi-temporal DEMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westoby, M. J.; Dunning, S. A.; Woodward, J.; Hein, A. S.; Marrero, S. M.; Winter, K.; Sugden, D. E.

    2015-11-01

    Multi-temporal and fine resolution topographic data products are being increasingly used to quantify surface elevation change in glacial environments. In this study, we employ 3-D digital elevation model (DEM) differencing to quantify the topographic evolution of a blue-ice moraine complex in front of Patriot Hills, Heritage Range, Antarctica. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to acquire multiple topographic datasets of the moraine surface at the beginning and end of the austral summer season in 2012/2013 and during a resurvey field campaign in 2014. A complementary topographic dataset was acquired at the end of season 1 through the application of Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry to a set of aerial photographs taken from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Three-dimensional cloud-to-cloud differencing was undertaken using the Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2) algorithm. DEM differencing revealed net uplift and lateral movement of the moraine crests within season 1 (mean uplift ∼ 0.10 m), with lowering of a similar magnitude in some inter-moraine depressions and close to the current ice margin. Our results indicate net uplift across the site between seasons 1 and 2 (mean 0.07 m). This research demonstrates that it is possible to detect dynamic surface topographical change across glacial moraines over short (annual to intra-annual) timescales through the acquisition and differencing of fine-resolution topographic datasets. Such data offer new opportunities to understand the process linkages between surface ablation, ice flow, and debris supply within moraine ice.

  8. Variations of iron flux and organic carbon remineralization in a subterranean estuary caused by inter-annual variations in recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Moutusi; Martin, Jonathan B.; Cable, Jaye E.; Smith, Christopher G.

    2013-02-01

    We determine the inter-annual variations in diagenetic reaction rates of sedimentary iron (Fe) in an east Florida subterranean estuary and evaluate the connection between metal fluxes and recharge to the coastal aquifer. Over the three years study period (from 2004 to 2007), the amount of Fe-oxides reduced at the study site decreased from 192 to 153 g/yr and associated organic carbon (OC) remineralization decreased from 48 to 38 g/yr. These reductions occurred although the Fe-oxide reduction rates remained constant around 1 mg/cm2/yr. These results suggest that changes in flow rates of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) related to changes in precipitation may be important to fluxes of the diagenetic reaction products. Rainfall at a weather station approximately 5 km from the field area decreased from 12.6 to 8.4 cm/month from 2004 to 2007. Monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculated from Thornthwaite's method indicated potential evapotranspiration cycled from about 3 cm/month in the winter to about 15 cm/month in the summer so that net annual recharge to the aquifer decreased from 40 cm in 2004 to -10 cm in 2007. Simultaneously with the decrease in recharge of groundwater, freshwater SGD decreased by around 20% and caused the originally 25 m wide freshwater seepage face to decrease in width by about 5 m. The smaller seepage face reduced the area under which Fe-oxides were undergoing reductive dissolution. Consequently, the observed decrease in Fe flux is controlled by hydrology of the subterranean estuary. These results point out the need to better understand linkages between temporal variations in diagenetic reactions and changes in flow within subterranean estuaries in order to accurately constrain their contribution to oceanic fluxes of solutes from subterranean estuaries.

  9. Inter-annual Controls on Oxygen Isotopes of Precipitaion in the Asian Monsoon Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, H.; Johnson, K. R.; Griffiths, M. L.; Yoshimura, K.

    2015-12-01

    18Op of annual rainfall may be influenced by ENSO and IOD.As a case study, after detrending, Laos δ18Op from IsoGSM since 1900 AD is moderately correlated with the NINO3.4 index (r=0.53) and with the IOD index at a lag of 1 year (r = -0.35). This indicates that interannual variability of δ18Op at our site is likely controlled by ENSO.

  10. Steady inter and intra-annual decrease in the vocalization frequency of Antarctic blue whales.

    PubMed

    Gavrilov, Alexander N; McCauley, Robert D; Gedamke, Jason

    2012-06-01

    Time averaged narrow-band noise near 27 Hz produced by vocalizations of many distant Antarctic blue whales intensifies seasonally from early February to late October in the ocean off Australia's South West. Spectral characteristics of long term patterns in this noise band were analyzed using ambient noise data collected at the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty hydroacoustic station off Cape Leeuwin, Western Australia over 2002-2010. Within 7 day averaged noise spectra derived from 4096-point FFT (∼0.06 Hz frequency resolution), the -3-dB width of the spectral peak from the upper tone of Antarctic blue whale vocalization was about 0.5 Hz. The spectral frequency peak of this tonal call was regularly but not gradually decreasing over the 9 years of observation from ∼27.7 Hz in 2002 to ∼26.6 Hz in 2010. The average frequency peak steadily decreased at a greater rate within a season at 0.4-0.5 Hz/season but then in the next year recovered to approximately the mean value of the previous season. A regression analysis showed that the interannual decrease rate of the peak frequency of the upper tonal call was 0.135 ± 0.003 Hz/year over 2002-2010 (R(2) ≈ 0.99). Possible causes of such a decline in the whale vocalization frequency are considered.

  11. Seasonal and Inter-annual Variability in Modeled Larval Dispersal and Population Connectivity of Blue Crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyory, J.; Jones, B.; Ko, D. S.; Taylor, C.

    2016-02-01

    Larval dispersal trajectories and their resulting population connectivity patterns are known to be key drivers of population dynamics for many marine organisms. However, few studies to date have examined the temporal variability in population connectivity. Here, we model the larval dispersal and population connectivity of blue crabs in the northern Gulf of Mexico from 2003-2012 and use network analyses to understand how they vary over seasonal and inter-annual scales. We found that in all years, the Mississippi River Delta is a barrier to dispersal. Few larvae cross it and settle successfully. In some years (2004, 2007, 2008, and 2009), 1-2 locations (Adams Bay and Chandeleur Sound) had high (> 0.3) betweenness centrality. These locations are likely to be important for maintaining population connectivity in the region, since more than 30% of larval pathways are predicted to pass through them. Connectivity matrices suggest that some estuaries have consistently high larval retention rates. These include West Cote Blanche Bay, Chandeleur Sound, and, in some years, Pensacola Bay and Atchafalaya Bay. Within the spawning season, we observe a decline in average vertex degree and average source strength in every year. This suggests that seasonal declines in the strength of along-shore currents produce consistent reductions in population connectivity through the spawning season.

  12. Inter-annual variability of exchange processes at the outer Black Sea shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, Georgy; Wobus, Fred; Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Zheng

    2014-05-01

    vertical discretisation (s-on-top-of-z) and other improved parameters of the model set-up as in Shapiro et al. (2013). The model was run for the period from 1979 to 2012 with water discharges from 8 main rivers, exchanges through Bosporus and meteo forcing from the Drakkar Forcing Set 5.2 (Brodeau et al, 2010). The model was spun-up from climatological temperature and salinity in January using a semi-diagnostic adjustment method. Each annual simulation started from the same initial state on 1 January without data assimilation. The data for the warm period from 1 May to 31 October of each year were used for the following analysis. The model has been validated against in-situ (based on 77867 stations) and night-time satellite monthly mean SST observations. The model also captures well the major features seen on snapshot satellite images. A simulated daily climatology was created by averaging the temperature values over the 34-year simulation. Anomalies were calculated as the deviations of the snapshot temperatures from their climatological values. The correlation between the temperature anomalies of BSW on the outer shelf and those in the CIL waters in the deep sea were computed as well as water transports between these water masses across the shelf break. The BSW on the outer shelf are defined as the waters between the density level σθ=14.2 kg m3 (i.e. the bottom of the surface mixed layer) and the seabed (max z=150 m at the shelf break). The corresponding data from open sea CIL waters in the northwest part of the deep Black Sea were taken from the depth range between σθ=14.2 and z=150 m. The computed Pierson correlation between summer temperatures of BSW and the deep sea CIL is R = 0.90. This significant correlation is in agreement with the analysis from observational data of Shapiro et al. (2011). In order to reveal a physical link between the BSW and CIL, the in-out transports of water with σθ ≥14.2 across the shelf break were computed for each day and then

  13. Inter- and intrasexual variation in aging patterns across reproductive traits in a wild red deer population.

    PubMed

    Nussey, Daniel H; Kruuk, Loeske E B; Morris, Alison; Clements, Michelle N; Pemberton, Josephine M; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2009-09-01

    In polygynous species, adult mortality is generally higher in males than in females, and theory predicts that this should result in the evolution of faster rates of senescence in males. Detailed investigations of sex differences in patterns of aging across the many and varied phenotypic characteristics associated with successful reproduction in wild populations of polygynous vertebrates are currently lacking. Here, we use longitudinal data collected from a wild red deer population to compare aging patterns across a range of life-history, behavioral, and morphological traits in both sexes. While males showed more rapid age-related declines in annual breeding success than did females, there was evidence of variation in aging rates among traits within each sex. Traits associated with male breeding performance showed a rapid decline in old age, whereas the morphology and phenology of antlers, a key male secondary sexual characteristic, showed minimal senescence. Female reproductive traits associated with regulation of estrus and gestation showed delayed senescence relative to traits associated with investment in offspring growth during gestation and lactation. Our results suggest that either natural selection or physiological constraint has caused an uncoupling of senescence rates in different physiological systems and, thus, different reproductive traits in this wild vertebrate population.

  14. Combination of MODIS Snow, Cloud and Land Spatial Coverage Data with SNOTEL to Generate Inter-Annual and Within-Season Snow Depletion Curves and Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qualls, R. J.; Arogundade, A. B.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of spatial coverage of snow and its temporal decline throughout the snowmelt season is an important input for snowmelt runoff models in the prediction of runoff and simulation of streamflow. Several remote sensing methods of snow cover mapping exist today with differing spatial and temporal resolutions that can be used in determining the progressive reduction of snow cover during snowmelt. The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensor has provided global coverage with daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution on the order of 1 km2 since the year 2000. Several challenges hinder the development and routine use of MODIS snow covered area products, which include cloud and forest obscuration of snow-covered surfaces. Furthermore, the relatively recent launch of the MODIS sensor prevents its direct use in historical or future (e.g., climate change scenario) studies. Based on numerous observations in the literature that snowmelt occurs in a repeating spatial pattern, albeit shifted and/or accelerated or decelerated in time, from one year to the next, a method is presented that makes use of remotely sensed MODIS snow, land and cloud data and concurrent ground-based Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) data to construct a single, inter-annually applicable and temporally dimensionless snow depletion curve and a corresponding snow depletion map. MODIS Cloud data and ground-based SNOTEL snowfall data during the snowmelt season are used together with the inter-annual snowmelt curve/map to generate within-year snowmelt curves that account for the impact of additional melt-season snowfall. The method is successfully applied to the 9000 km2 Upper Snake River Basin in Wyoming, USA as a test case. The method may be used with historical SNOTEL data to reconstruct snow depletion curves or maps for base periods preceding the availability of current satellite remote sensing, and with synthesized weather datasets for future periods associated with

  15. Satellite observations reveal little inter-annual variability in the radiant flux from the Mount Erebus lava lake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Robert; Pilger, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Satellite remote sensing represents a mature technology for long-term monitoring of volcanic activity at Mount Erebus, either independently or as a complement to field instrumentation. Observations made on 4290 discrete occasions over a six year period by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicate that the radiant flux from the volcano's summit crater (and by inference, the lava lake contained therein), while variable on the time scale of days to weeks, has varied little on an inter-annual basis over this period. The average radiant flux from the lake during this time was 15 MW, with a maximum flux of 100 MW. Such heat flux time-series have been shown to act as a reliable proxy for general levels of activity at erupting volcanoes around the world, particularly when these time-series are of a long duration. The apparent stability of Erebus' power output is in marked contrast to fluxes observed at three other terrestrial volcanoes, Erta 'Ale (Ethiopia), Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Ambrym (Vanuatu), which, while also hosting active lava lakes, all exhibit much greater variability in radiant flux over the same period of time. The results presented in this paper are confluent with those obtained from geochemical considerations of the Erebus' degassing regime, and confirm that remarkably stable open-system volcanism appears to be characteristic of this long-active volcano.

  16. Impacts of climate change and inter-annual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Tianyi; Huang, Yao

    2012-06-01

    Negative climate impacts on crop yield increase pressures on food security in China. In this study, climatic impacts on cereal yields (rice, wheat and maize) were investigated by analyzing climate-yield relationships from 1980 to 2008. Results indicated that warming was significant, but trends in precipitation and solar radiation were not statistically significant in most of China. In general, maize is particularly sensitive to warming. However, increase in temperature was correlated with both lower and higher yield of rice and wheat, which is inconsistent with the current view that warming results in decline in yields. Of the three cereal crops, further analysis suggested that reduction in yields with higher temperature is accompanied by lower precipitation, which mainly occurred in northern parts of China, suggesting droughts reduced yield due to lack of water resources. Similarly, a positive correlation between temperature and yield can be alternatively explained by the effect of solar radiation, mainly in the southern part of China where water resources are abundant. Overall, our study suggests that it is inter-annual variations in precipitation and solar radiation that have driven change in cereal yields in China over the last three decades. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  17. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Changes in the Distribution of Dominant Phytoplancton Groups in the Global Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Severine, A.; Cyril, M.; Yves, D.; Laurent, B.; Hubert, L.

    2006-12-01

    The fate of fixed organic carbon in the ocean strongly varies with the phytoplankton group that makes photosynthesis. The monitoring of phytoplankton groups in the global ocean is thus of primary importance to evaluate and improve ocean carbon models. A new method (PHYSAT; Alvain et al., 2005) enables to distinguish between four different groups from space using SeaWiFS ocean color measurements. In addition to these four initial phytoplankton groups, which are diatoms, Prochlorococcus, Synecochoccus and haptophytes, we show that PHYSAT is also capable of identifying blooms of phaeocystis and coccolithophorids. Daily global SeaWiFS level-3 data from September 1997 to December 2004 were processed using PHYSAT. We present here the first monthly mean global climatology of the dominant phytoplankton groups. The seasonal cycle is discussed, with particular emphasis on the succession of phytoplankton groups during the North Atlantic spring bloom and on the coexistence of large phaeocystis and diatoms blooms during winter in the Austral Ocean. We also present the inter-annual variability for the 1998-2004 period. The contribution of diatoms to the total chlorophyll is highly variable (up to a factor of two) from one year to the other in both Atlantic and Austral Oceans, suggesting a significant variability in organic carbon export by diatoms in these regions. On the opposite, the phaeocystis contribution is less variable in the Austral Ocean.

  18. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

    2017-05-01

    A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

  19. The Physical Context of Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variability in Phytoplankton across the Scotian Shelf: Insights from Profiling Gliders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, T.; Craig, S. E.; Dever, M.; Beck, M.; Comeau, A.; Davis, R. F.

    2016-02-01

    Understanding how phytoplankton respond to their physical environment is key to predicting how bloom dynamics might change under future climate change scenarios. Phytoplankton are at the base of most marine food webs and play an important role in drawing CO2 out of the atmosphere. We use 5 years of simultaneous CTD, irradiance, fluorescence by chlorophyll a and optical backscattering observations obtained from Slocum glider missions across the Scotian Shelf, near Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, to examine the seasonal and inter-annual variability in proxies of phytoplankton abundance and type, and their physical context. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the main spring bloom occurs before the onset of the seasonal stratified layer. In fact, the largest chlorophyll observations consistently occurred while there was very little stratification in the upper 60 meters. This first bloom type, which was diatom dominated, was followed by a phytoplankton assemblage dominated by pico- and nano-phytoplankton and dinoflagellates associated with the nutrient poor, more stable summertime conditions. We examine the conditions throughout the entire growing season and compare the conditions during the initiation of the spring diatom bloom between years.

  20. Factors affecting the inter-annual to centennial timescale variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-09-01

    The Modes of Ocean Variability (MOV) namely Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have significant impacts on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) on different timescales. The timescales at which these MOV interacts with ISMR and the factors which may perturb their relationship with ISMR need to be investigated. We employ De-trended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA), and De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA) to study the timescales of interaction of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO using observational dataset (AD 1854-1999), and atmosphere-ocean-chemistry climate model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). Further, this study uses De-trended Semi-Partial Cross-Correlation Analysis (DSPCCA) to address the relation between solar variability and the ISMR. We find statistically significant evidence of intrinsic correlations of ISMR with AMO, PDO, and ENSO on different timescales, consistent between model simulations and observations. However, the model fails to capture modulation in intrinsic relationship between ISRM and MOV due to external signals. Our analysis indicates that AMO is a potential source of non-stationary relationship between ISMR and ENSO. Furthermore, the pattern of correlation between ISMR and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is inconsistent between observations and model simulations. The observational dataset indicates statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation between ISMR and TSI on decadal-to-centennial timescales. This statistically insignificant negative intrinsic correlation is transformed to statistically significant positive extrinsic by AMO on 61-86-year timescale. We propose a new mechanism for Sun-monsoon connection which operates through AMO by changes in summer (June-September; JJAS) meridional gradient of tropospheric temperatures (ΔTTJJAS). There is a negative (positive) intrinsic correlation between ΔTTJJAS (AMO) and

  1. Inter-Sentential Patterns of Code-Switching: A Gender-Based Investigation of Male and Female EFL Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gulzar, Malik Ajmal; Farooq, Muhammad Umar; Umer, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This article has sought to contribute to discussions concerning the value of inter-sentential patterns of code-switching (henceforth ISPCS) particularly in the context of EFL classrooms. Through a detailed analysis of recorded data produced in that context, distinctive features in the discourse were discerned which were associated with males' and…

  2. Impact of Precipitation Patterns on Biomass and Species Richness of Annuals in a Dry Steppe

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Hong; Liang, Cunzhu; Li, Zhiyong; Liu, Zhongling; Miao, Bailing; He, Chunguang; Sheng, Lianxi

    2015-01-01

    Annuals are an important component part of plant communities in arid and semiarid grassland ecosystems. Although it is well known that precipitation has a significant impact on productivity and species richness of community or perennials, nevertheless, due to lack of measurements, especially long-term experiment data, there is little information on how quantity and patterns of precipitation affect similar attributes of annuals. This study addresses this knowledge gap by analyzing how quantity and temporal patterns of precipitation affect aboveground biomass, interannual variation aboveground biomass, relative aboveground biomass, and species richness of annuals using a 29-year dataset from a dry steppe site at the Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Research Station. Results showed that aboveground biomass and relative aboveground biomass of annuals increased with increasing precipitation. The coefficient of variation in aboveground biomass of annuals decreased significantly with increasing annual and growing-season precipitation. Species richness of annuals increased significantly with increasing annual precipitation and growing-season precipitation. Overall, this study highlights the importance of precipitation for aboveground biomass and species richness of annuals. PMID:25906187

  3. Impact of precipitation patterns on biomass and species richness of annuals in a dry steppe.

    PubMed

    Yan, Hong; Liang, Cunzhu; Li, Zhiyong; Liu, Zhongling; Miao, Bailing; He, Chunguang; Sheng, Lianxi

    2015-01-01

    Annuals are an important component part of plant communities in arid and semiarid grassland ecosystems. Although it is well known that precipitation has a significant impact on productivity and species richness of community or perennials, nevertheless, due to lack of measurements, especially long-term experiment data, there is little information on how quantity and patterns of precipitation affect similar attributes of annuals. This study addresses this knowledge gap by analyzing how quantity and temporal patterns of precipitation affect aboveground biomass, interannual variation aboveground biomass, relative aboveground biomass, and species richness of annuals using a 29-year dataset from a dry steppe site at the Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Research Station. Results showed that aboveground biomass and relative aboveground biomass of annuals increased with increasing precipitation. The coefficient of variation in aboveground biomass of annuals decreased significantly with increasing annual and growing-season precipitation. Species richness of annuals increased significantly with increasing annual precipitation and growing-season precipitation. Overall, this study highlights the importance of precipitation for aboveground biomass and species richness of annuals.

  4. Inter-annual fluctuations of zooplankton communities in the Bay of Villefranche-sur-mer from 1995 to 2005 (Northern Ligurian Sea, France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vandromme, P.; Stemmann, L.; Berline, L.; Gasparini, S.; Mousseau, L.; Prejger, F.; Passafiume, O.; Guarini, J.-M.; Gorsky, G.

    2011-11-01

    An integrated analysis of the pelagic ecosystems of the Ligurian Sea is performed combining time series (1995-2005) of several zooplankton groups (one group for copepods smaller than 0.724 mm3 and nine groups for individuals larger than 0.724 mm3, i.e. large copepods, decapod larvæ, other crustaceans, chaetognaths, appendicularians, pteropods, thaliaceans, gelatinous predators and other zooplankton), chlorophyll-a, nutrients, salinity, temperature, density, and local weather at Point B coastal station (Northern Ligurian Sea). From 1995 to 2000 winters were wet and mild resulting in lower winter sea surface density. These years showed lower than average nutrients and zooplankton concentrations while chlorophyll-a biomass was high. After 2000, winters were colder and dryer resulting in higher sea surface density. Nutrients and zooplankton showed higher concentrations while chlorophyll-a was lower than average. The ca. 2000 change was observed for most zooplankton groups with a one-year delay for some groups. Inter-annual variability within each period was also observed. The observed patterns suggest that the pelagic ecosystem trophic state at the studied point is mostly set by the winter forcing on the vertical mixing that upwells nutrients to the surface sustaining primary production. Surprisingly, low chlorophyll-a biomass in high nitrate and zooplankton conditions during the well mixed years suggest that phytoplankton biomass is controlled by grazers. The proposed mechanisms of stronger winter vertical mixing hold for most of the time series, but specific years with contradicting patterns suggest also the possible influence of the summer climate. A review of recent literature suggests that changes in the pelagic ecosystem are not limited to the studied site but concern also the central Ligurian Sea.

  5. Uncovering patterns of inter-urban trip and spatial interaction from social media check-in data.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu; Sui, Zhengwei; Kang, Chaogui; Gao, Yong

    2014-01-01

    The article revisits spatial interaction and distance decay from the perspective of human mobility patterns and spatially-embedded networks based on an empirical data set. We extract nationwide inter-urban movements in China from a check-in data set that covers half a million individuals within 370 cities to analyze the underlying patterns of trips and spatial interactions. By fitting the gravity model, we find that the observed spatial interactions are governed by a power law distance decay effect. The obtained gravity model also closely reproduces the exponential trip displacement distribution. The movement of an individual, however, may not obey the same distance decay effect, leading to an ecological fallacy. We also construct a spatial network where the edge weights denote the interaction strengths. The communities detected from the network are spatially cohesive and roughly consistent with province boundaries. We attribute this pattern to different distance decay parameters between intra-province and inter-province trips.

  6. Uncovering Patterns of Inter-Urban Trip and Spatial Interaction from Social Media Check-In Data

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Yu; Sui, Zhengwei; Kang, Chaogui; Gao, Yong

    2014-01-01

    The article revisits spatial interaction and distance decay from the perspective of human mobility patterns and spatially-embedded networks based on an empirical data set. We extract nationwide inter-urban movements in China from a check-in data set that covers half a million individuals within 370 cities to analyze the underlying patterns of trips and spatial interactions. By fitting the gravity model, we find that the observed spatial interactions are governed by a power law distance decay effect. The obtained gravity model also closely reproduces the exponential trip displacement distribution. The movement of an individual, however, may not obey the same distance decay effect, leading to an ecological fallacy. We also construct a spatial network where the edge weights denote the interaction strengths. The communities detected from the network are spatially cohesive and roughly consistent with province boundaries. We attribute this pattern to different distance decay parameters between intra-province and inter-province trips. PMID:24465849

  7. Evaluating the effects of China's pollution control on inter-annual trends and uncertainties of atmospheric mercury emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Zhong, H.; Zhang, J.; Nielsen, C. P.

    2014-10-01

    China's atmospheric mercury (Hg) emissions of anthropogenic origin have been effectively restrained through the national policy of air pollution control. Improved methods based on available field measurements are developed to quantify the benefits of Hg abatement through various emission control measures. Those measures include increased use of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and selective catalyst reduction (SCR) systems for power sector, precalciners with fabric filter (FF) for cement production, machinery coking with electrostatic precipitator (ESP) for iron and steel production, and advanced manufacturing technologies for nonferrous metal smelting. Declining trends in emissions factors for those sources are revealed, leading to a much slower growth of national total Hg emissions than that of energy and economy, from 679 in 2005 to 750 metric tons (t) in 2012. In particular, nearly half of emissions from the above-mentioned four types of sources are expected to be reduced in 2012, attributed to expansion of technologies with high energy efficiencies and air pollutant removal rates after 2005. The speciation of Hg emissions keeps stable for recent years, with the mass fractions of around 55, 39 and 6% for Hg0, Hg2+ and Hgp, respectively. The lower estimate of Hg emissions than previous inventories is supported by limited chemistry simulation work, but middle-to-long term observation on ambient Hg levels is further needed to justify the inter-annual trends of estimated Hg emissions. With improved implementation of emission controls and energy saving, 23% reduction in annual Hg emissions for the most optimistic case in 2030 is expected compared to 2012, with total emissions below 600 t. While Hg emissions are evaluated to be gradually constrained, increased uncertainties are quantified with Monte-Carlo simulation for recent years, particularly for power and certain industrial sources. The uncertainty of Hg emissions from coal-fired power plants, as an example

  8. Inter-annual Variations and Decadal Trends in Surface Equatorial Pacific Phosphate Concentrations: Coral Records from the Line Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinclair, D. J.; Sherrell, R. M.; LaVigne, M.; Tudhope, A. W.; Cobb, K.

    2011-12-01

    Coralline P/Ca is a newly-calibrated proxy for oceanic phosphate concentration (LaVigne et al. 2010, Anagnostuou et al. 2011). This proxy is an important tool for reconstructing tropical ocean nutrient dynamics, especially in remote regions, such as the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are poorly covered by instrumental records. Here we present P/Ca records in 4 Porites corals from the Line Islands in the central Equatorial Pacific spanning the last ~ 30 years. The coral from Jarvis Island (0°22'S) has a significantly higher P/Ca concentration than two independent coral records from Christmas Island (1°53'N), and a coral from Fanning Island (3°51'N). This is consistent with the strong meridional gradient in surface phosphate in the central equatorial Pacific. All corals record a long-term 2-fold decrease in phosphate concentration from the mid 1970s to the mid 1990s, in agreement with observed slowing of the Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (McPhadden and Zhang 2002). On inter-annual time scales, the corals all capture strong El Niño events as a decrease in surface phosphate consistent with deepening of the eastern Pacific thermocline. The magnitude of this suppression is significantly larger in the Jarvis Island coral, again consistent with its location in the high phosphate tongue in the equatorial Pacific. The Jarvis Island coral record shows hints of a decadal oscillation in P which so far does not appear to be captured by the Christmas Island coral. Further analyses are underway to extend these records and to study P dynamics in other Line Island corals. Our preliminary results suggest that Porites corals are recording P variations in the central Pacific which accord with known oceanographic changes. This study demonstrates the potential for reconstructing nutrient dynamics at annual to multidecadal resolutions. Citations LaVigne M., Matthews K. A., Grottoli A. G., Cobb K. M., Anagnostou E., Cabioch G., and Sherrell R. M. (2010) Coral skeleton P

  9. The impact of annual and seasonal rainfall patterns on growth and phenology of emergent tree species in Southeastern Amazonia, Brazil

    Treesearch

    James Grogan; Mark Schulze

    2012-01-01

    Understanding tree growth in response to rainfall distribution is critical to predicting forest and species population responses to climate change. We investigated inter-annual and seasonal variation in stem diameter by three emergent tree species in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southeast Pará, Brazil. Annual diameter growth rates by Swietenia macrophylla...

  10. Robustness of cluster synchronous patterns in small-world networks with inter-cluster co-competition balance

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Jianbao; Ma, Zhongjun; Chen, Guanrong

    2014-06-15

    All edges in the classical Watts and Strogatz's small-world network model are unweighted and cooperative (positive). By introducing competitive (negative) inter-cluster edges and assigning edge weights to mimic more realistic networks, this paper develops a modified model which possesses co-competitive weighted couplings and cluster structures while maintaining the common small-world network properties of small average shortest path lengths and large clustering coefficients. Based on theoretical analysis, it is proved that the new model with inter-cluster co-competition balance has an important dynamical property of robust cluster synchronous pattern formation. More precisely, clusters will neither merge nor split regardless of adding or deleting nodes and edges, under the condition of inter-cluster co-competition balance. Numerical simulations demonstrate the robustness of the model against the increase of the coupling strength and several topological variations.

  11. Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ulsig, Laura; Nichol, Caroline J.; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Landis, David R.; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Mammarella, Ivan; Levula, Janne; Porcar-Castell, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS) were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction) processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R (sup 2) equals 0.36-0.8), which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R (sup 2) is greater than 0.6 in all cases). The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

  12. Inter-annual and longer-term variability in supraglacial lake distribution on the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leeson, A. A.; Shepherd, A.; Briggs, K.; Fettweis, X.

    2013-12-01

    Supraglacial lakes (SGLs) form when meltwater pools in topographic depressions during the spring and summer across much of the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). These lakes act as temporary water storage sites, reducing the area-averaged albedo of the ice sheet, and can also influence ice sheet dynamics when they drain rapidly. Recently, it has been proposed that the area over which supraglacial lakes can be found has extended inland on the GrIS over the last 40 years, in response to the upward migration of the equilibrium line. Here, we use a model of supraglacial lake initiation and growth (the SLInG model), which uses an InSAR derived digital elevation model to route and pond runoff estimated by the regional climate model MAR (Modele Atmospherique Regional), to simulate the past, present and future distribution of SGLs in the Russell Glacier region of the GrIS. We find that, when compared to a new, optimised, observational record of SGL evolution, that SLInG successfully reproduces climatically-driven inter-annual variability in the maximum extent of lake covered area. We also find, in agreement with estimates derived from satellite observations, that the maximum extent of SGL covered area in this region shifted ~150 m a.s.l. up the GrIS between 1971and 2010. We partition this change into a steady upwards migration of 2 m a.s.l. per year during 1971-1995 and a much more rapid change of 6.7 m a.s.l. per year during 1996-2010. Using SLInG, forced with runoff estimates simulated under a range of climate change scenarios, we assess the likelihood that this trend will continue, and estimate the maximum elevation of SGLs in this region by 2100.

  13. Climate and the individual: inter-annual variation in the autumnal activity of the European badger (Meles meles).

    PubMed

    Noonan, Michael J; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D; Ellwood, Stephen A; Macdonald, David W

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and 30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a 'one size fits all' approach should not be applied to ecological responses.

  14. Climate and the Individual: Inter-Annual Variation in the Autumnal Activity of the European Badger (Meles meles)

    PubMed Central

    Noonan, Michael J.; Markham, Andrew; Newman, Chris; Trigoni, Niki; Buesching, Christina D.; Ellwood, Stephen A.; Macdonald, David W.

    2014-01-01

    We establish intra-individual and inter-annual variability in European badger (Meles meles) autumnal nightly activity in relation to fine-scale climatic variables, using tri-axial accelerometry. This contributes further to understanding of causality in the established interaction between weather conditions and population dynamics in this species. Modelling found that measures of daylight, rain/humidity, and soil temperature were the most supported predictors of ACTIVITY, in both years studied. In 2010, the drier year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, RAIN, and30cmTEMP (w = 0.557), while in 2012, a wetter year, the most supported model included the SOLAR*RH interaction, and the RAIN*10cmTEMP (w = 0.999). ACTIVITY also differed significantly between individuals. In the 2012 autumn study period, badgers with the longest per noctem activity subsequently exhibited higher Body Condition Indices (BCI) when recaptured. In contrast, under drier 2010 conditions, badgers in good BCI engaged in less per noctem activity, while badgers with poor BCI were the most active. When compared on the same calendar dates, to control for night length, duration of mean badger nightly activity was longer (9.5 hrs ±3.3 SE) in 2010 than in 2012 (8.3 hrs ±1.9 SE). In the wetter year, increasing nightly activity was associated with net-positive energetic gains (from BCI), likely due to better foraging conditions. In a drier year, with greater potential for net-negative energy returns, individual nutritional state proved crucial in modifying activity regimes; thus we emphasise how a ‘one size fits all’ approach should not be applied to ecological responses. PMID:24465376

  15. Predicting Distribution and Inter-Annual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity from a Stochastic, Multiple-Linear Regression Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, C. Y.; Tippett, M. K.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    We are working towards the development of a new statistical-dynamical downscaling system to study the influence of climate on tropical cyclones (TCs). The first step is development of an appropriate model for TC intensity as a function of environmental variables. We approach this issue with a stochastic model consisting of a multiple linear regression model (MLR) for 12-hour intensity forecasts as a deterministic component, and a random error generator as a stochastic component. Similar to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS), MLR relates the surrounding environment to storm intensity, but with only essential predictors calculated from monthly-mean NCEP reanalysis fields (potential intensity, shear, etc.) and from persistence. The deterministic MLR is developed with data from 1981-1999 and tested with data from 2000-2012 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, Western North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins. While the global MLR's skill is comparable to that of the operational statistical models (e.g., SHIPS), the distribution of the predicted maximum intensity from deterministic results has a systematic low bias compared to observations; the deterministic MLR creates almost no storms with intensities greater than 100 kt. The deterministic MLR can be significantly improved by adding the stochastic component, based on the distribution of random forecasting errors from the deterministic model compared to the training data. This stochastic component may be thought of as representing the component of TC intensification that is not linearly related to the environmental variables. We find that in order for the stochastic model to accurately capture the observed distribution of maximum storm intensities, the stochastic component must be auto-correlated across 12-hour time steps. This presentation also includes a detailed discussion of the distributions of other TC-intensity related quantities, as well as the inter-annual

  16. Accounting for inter-annual and seasonal variability in regionalization of hydrologic response in the Great Lakes basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kult, J. M.; Fry, L. M.; Gronewold, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Methods for predicting streamflow in areas with limited or nonexistent measures of hydrologic response typically invoke the concept of regionalization, whereby knowledge pertaining to gauged catchments is transferred to ungauged catchments. In this study, we identify watershed physical characteristics acting as primary drivers of hydrologic response throughout the US portion of the Great Lakes basin. Relationships between watershed physical characteristics and hydrologic response are generated from 166 catchments spanning a variety of climate, soil, land cover, and land form regimes through regression tree analysis, leading to a grouping of watersheds exhibiting similar hydrologic response characteristics. These groupings are then used to predict response in ungauged watersheds in an uncertainty framework. Results from this method are assessed alongside one historical regionalization approach which, while simple, has served as a cornerstone of Great Lakes regional hydrologic research for several decades. Our approach expands upon previous research by considering multiple temporal characterizations of hydrologic response. Due to the substantial inter-annual and seasonal variability in hydrologic response observed over the Great Lakes basin, results from the regression tree analysis differ considerably depending on the level of temporal aggregation used to define the response. Specifically, higher levels of temporal aggregation for the response metric (for example, indices derived from long-term means of climate and streamflow observations) lead to improved watershed groupings with lower within-group variance. However, this perceived improvement in model skill occurs at the cost of understated uncertainty when applying the regression to time series simulations or as a basis for model calibration. In such cases, our results indicate that predictions based on long-term characterizations of hydrologic response can produce misleading conclusions when applied at shorter

  17. Satellites reveals the biophysical effects of forest cover change on climate at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, Gregory; Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    Changing the planet's forest cover can have a profound impact of the climate system by altering its role as a carbon sink. However, deforestation and afforestation also changes the biophysical properties of the surface such as albedo, roughness and root depth, thus altering the energy balance and the resulting surface and air temperature. The result of these competing biophysical processes varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to either warming or cooling depending on which process dominates. The main tools to characterize such plant-climate interactions for both the past and future are land surface models embedded in larger Earth System models, yet their capacity to model biophysical effects accurately across the globe remains unclear due to the complexity of the phenomena. Alternatively, with appropriate methodologies, the climate impacts of the biophysical effects of forest cover change can be derived from space by satellite measurements of surface temperature and energy fluxes. Here we present the confrontation of two dedicated assessments that have been specifically generated for this scope with contrasting methodologies. The first is based on identifying an actual change in the local climate following an observed forest cover transition. Although it directly measures the desired effect, this method can only be applied to the places where vegetation change has effectively occurred. The second method relies on a 'space-for-time' approximation that identifies the potential impact of a plant cover transition from differences in climate amongst neighboring areas with contrasting vegetation. We show how both approaches reinforce and complement each other to provide a consolidated result across diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual time scales. We anticipate that these evidences derived from satellite records may support the benchmarking and development of Earth system models and support the inclusion of vegetation-driven biophysical processes in climate

  18. Inter-annual variability of summertime CO2 exchange in Northern Eurasia inferred from GOSAT XCO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishizawa, M.; Mabuchi, K.; Shirai, T.; Inoue, M.; Morino, I.; Uchino, O.; Yoshida, Y.; Belikov, D.; Maksyutov, S.

    2016-10-01

    Northern Eurasia is one of the largest terrestrial carbon reservoirs on the Earth’s surface. However, since the coverage of surface CO2 observations is still limited, the response to the climate variability remains uncertain. We estimated monthly CO2 fluxes for three sub-regions in Northern Eurasia (north of ˜60°N), Northeastern Europe, Western Siberia and Eastern Siberia, using CO2 retrievals from the Japanese Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). The variations of estimated CO2 fluxes were examined in terms of the regional climate variability, for the three consecutive growing seasons of 2009-2011. The CO2 fluxes estimated using GOSAT data are highly correlated with the surface temperature anomalies in July and August (r > 0.8) while no correlation is found in the CO2 fluxes estimated only using surface observations. The estimated fluxes from GOSAT data exhibit high negative correlations with one-month lagged positive precipitation anomalies in late summer (r > -0.7) through surface temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The results indicate that GOSAT data reflects the changes in terrestrial biospheric processes responding to climate anomalies. In 2010, a large part of Eurasia experienced an extremely hot and dry summer, while cold and wet weather conditions were recorded in Western Siberia. The CO2 fluxes estimated from GOSAT data showed a reduction of net CO2 uptake in Northeastern Europe and Eastern Siberia, but the enhancement of net CO2 uptake in Western Siberia. These opposite sub-regional flux anomalies can be explained by the different climate anomalies on a sub-regional scale in Northern Eurasia. Thus, this study demonstrates that space-based observations by GOSAT compensate for the lack of ground-based observational coverage so as to better capture the inter-annually varying atmosphere-terrestrial biosphere CO2 exchange on a regional scale.

  19. Effects of clouds on the Earth radiation budget; Seasonal and inter-annual patterns

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dhuria, Harbans L.

    1992-01-01

    Seasonal and regional variations of clouds and their effects on the climatological parameters were studied. The climatological parameters surface temperature, solar insulation, short-wave absorbed, long wave emitted, and net radiation were considered. The data of climatological parameters consisted of about 20 parameters of Earth radiation budget and clouds of 2070 target areas which covered the globe. It consisted of daily and monthly averages of each parameter for each target area for the period, Jun. 1979 - May 1980. Cloud forcing and black body temperature at the top of the atmosphere were calculated. Interactions of clouds, cloud forcing, black body temperature, and the climatological parameters were investigated and analyzed.

  20. Inter-cohort growth patterns of pharaoh cuttlefish Sepia pharaonis (Sepioidea: Sepiidae) in Eastern Arabian Sea.

    PubMed

    Sasikumarl, Geetha; Mohamed, K S; Bhat, U S

    2013-03-01

    Sepia pharaonis is an important commercial species endemic to the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Despite its commercial significance, only few information on natural populations is available. This study was aimed to describe the aspects of size-composition, length-weight relationship, catch rates, seasonal recruitment and inter-cohort growth patterns of S. pharaonis population (Clade C), distributed along the Eastern Arabian Sea (South-West coast of India). For this, the Dorsal Mantle Length (DML) and weight of cuttlefishes was obtained from commercial trawl catches, from April 2002 to October 2006. Data was analyzed by normal length-weight methods such as von Bertalanffy. A total of 12454 cuttlefishes, ranging in length from four to 41cm were analyzed. Size-composition patterns discriminated two pulses in recruitment to the fishery, discernible by a decrease in the monthly mean size of the population. The DMLs of the two seasonal cohorts were subjected to modal-progression analysis using the Bhattacharya's method for the estimation of growth. The estimated parameters Linfinity and K in von Bertalanffy Growth Function (VBGF) were used to model growth curves in length for the cohorts. The first cohort, (post-monsoon cohort) which supports the major fishery, was composed of medium-sized, fast growing individuals, whereas the second cohort (pre-monsoon cohort), comprised of slow growing and large-sized individuals. There were differential growth characteristics between the sexes and the life span was estimated at less than 2.3 years for males and 2.1 years for females. Negative allometric growth in weight (W) with length (L) was observed for males (W=0.33069.L2.5389) and females (W=0.32542.L26057). The females were heavier compared to males at any given mantle length, and the males were found to attain larger ultimate lengths. The major fishing season for cuttlefish was from May to November, when higher monthly catch rates of 1.67-13.02kg/h were observed in comparison

  1. Inter-annual variability of stream temperature, micro-climate and heat exchange dynamics: a comparison of forest and moorland environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I. A.; Sadler, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Riparian woodland is recognised as important in moderating stream temperature variability and offers potential to mitigate thermal extremes under a warming climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges determining water column temperature has been often short-term, or seasonally-constrained, with the few long term year-round studies limited to a maximum of two years. This paper addresses these research gaps by comparing inter-annual variability in stream temperature, micro-climate and heat exchange dynamics between stream reaches of contrasting riparian landuse. Automatic weather stations (AWS) were installed in semi-natural woodland and moorland (no trees) reaches of the Girnock Burn, an upland tributary of the Aberdeenshire Dee. Data were collected across all seasons over seven calendar years. This research yields, for the first time, a long-term perspective on temporal differences in river heat exchange processes associated with riparian landuse under a range of hydroclimatological conditions. Results indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a persistent effect year-to-year in reducing mean and maximum daily water column temperature under a variety of hydrological and meteorological conditions. Woodland and moorland reaches display similar inter-annual variability in daily water column temperature range during spring and early summer, but in mid-summer and autumn woodland inter-annual variability is reduced greatly compared with moorland. Higher inter-annual variability (indicated by standard deviations) in spring and early summer water temperature ranges at both sites are attributed to increasing day length and solar radiation receipt, which a developing forest canopy at the woodland site is not able to mitigate. Once the full riparian canopy, hence maximum shading potential, is established (mid-summer) inter-annual variability in woodland temperature range is reduced greatly. The magnitude of woodland water temperature range is greater in spring

  2. Inter-rater reliability for movement pattern analysis (MPA): measuring patterning of behaviors versus discrete behavior counts as indicators of decision-making style

    PubMed Central

    Connors, Brenda L.; Rende, Richard; Colton, Timothy J.

    2014-01-01

    The unique yield of collecting observational data on human movement has received increasing attention in a number of domains, including the study of decision-making style. As such, interest has grown in the nuances of core methodological issues, including the best ways of assessing inter-rater reliability. In this paper we focus on one key topic – the distinction between establishing reliability for the patterning of behaviors as opposed to the computation of raw counts – and suggest that reliability for each be compared empirically rather than determined a priori. We illustrate by assessing inter-rater reliability for key outcome measures derived from movement pattern analysis (MPA), an observational methodology that records body movements as indicators of decision-making style with demonstrated predictive validity. While reliability ranged from moderate to good for raw counts of behaviors reflecting each of two Overall Factors generated within MPA (Assertion and Perspective), inter-rater reliability for patterning (proportional indicators of each factor) was significantly higher and excellent (ICC = 0.89). Furthermore, patterning, as compared to raw counts, provided better prediction of observable decision-making process assessed in the laboratory. These analyses support the utility of using an empirical approach to inform the consideration of measuring patterning versus discrete behavioral counts of behaviors when determining inter-rater reliability of observable behavior. They also speak to the substantial reliability that may be achieved via application of theoretically grounded observational systems such as MPA that reveal thinking and action motivations via visible movement patterns. PMID:24999336

  3. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature at the east coast fishing area off Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurul Ridani, S.; Mustapha, M. A.; Lihan, T.; Ku Kassim, K. Y.; Raja Bidin, R. H.

    2015-09-01

    Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to study a time-series of the aqua MODIS data imageries in the exclusive economic zone of east coast off Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal and spatial characteristics were examined to determine the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from January 2003 to December 2011.The data were analysed from daily Level 1A (1km spatial resolution) to monthly composites Level 3 data using SeaDAS and ERDAS imagine software. Four modes was obtained from the analysis with the highest variance (7.9%) represented by mode 1 which explained the seasonal cycle. Mode 2 (5.11 % of total variance) showed positive and negative peak signal during March and April and in October and November with variability near the Kelantan and Pahang waters that indicated the inter monsoon. Mode 3 (3.8 % of variance) shows variability near the Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor waters to the open sea during July and August and in May and June representing the Southwest monsoon. Mode 4 (3.36 %) showed positive signal during November and December with strong signal near Pahang and Kelantan waters while weak signal was detected near Terengganu and Kelantan's open sea representing the Northeast monsoon. The SST variability was influenced by the monsoonal system which originated by the wind forcing condition that influences circulation in the study area.

  4. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Implications: We present the first inter-seasonal analysis of survival probability of the Pacific coast race of band-tailed pigeons and illustrate important temporal patterns that may influence future species management including harvest strategies and disease monitoring.

  5. Inter-annual precipitation variabiity inferred from late Holocene speleothem records from Fiji: implications for SPCZ localisation and ENSO behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.; Hoffmann, D.; Brett, M.

    2015-12-01

    The modern tropical Fiji climate is characterised by seasonal rainfall controlled by the position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). Interannual rainfall is strongly modulated on decadal timescales by ENSO with higher rainfall associated with La Nina events. Voli Voli cave near Sigatoga (Viti Levu) is a stream passage that has been monitored since 2009. A U-Th dated laminated speleothem spans a 1500 year interval across the transition from the Medieval Warm Period into the Little Ice Age marked by a fabric change from finely laminated calcite with thin clay layers, to white well-laminated calcite. The older record is characterised by rising δ13C values followed by a rapid decrease in δ13C around 1200 AD. Evidence from cave monitoring shows that cave air CO2 levels are strongly seasonal as a result of greater ventilation by winter trade winds and high resolution δ13C record shows regularly spaced peaks correlated with paired laminae and cycles in P and S which provide annual markers driven by rainfall and seasonal ventilation. δ18O values remain relatively unchanged throughout the record but micromilling at sub-annual resolution reveals systematic cycles in δ18O that span groups of paired laminae with an inferred periodicity of 3-7 years i.e. a similar frequency to modern ENSO. The presence of these sub-decadal cycles in δ18O may be a result of a combination of factors. The amplitude of 2-3‰ would be equivalent to an amount-effect related change in annual precipitation of around 50% but an additional smoothing process, perhaps a result of aquifer storage, is required to attenuate interannual variance in precipitation. The Voli Voli record provides evidence of an underlying climatic change to more frequent La Niña conditions from 1200 AD and may be associated with increased conflict, shifts in settlements and changes in subsistence strategies on the island. Coeval speleothem isotope records from tropical Pacific Islands provide a provide a

  6. The twentieth century African easterly waves in reanalysis systems and IPCC simulations, from intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruti, Paolo M.; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

    2010-11-01

    The nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of African easterly waves (AEWs) in IPCC-CMIP3 global simulations is investigated in comparison with 40-year NCEP and ERA40 products. AEWs are a major source of atmospheric variability over the Sahel and particularly over West Africa. An accurate representation of AEWs dynamics is therefore an important precondition to skilled climate predictions and seasonal forecasts for this area. We describe the synoptic features of these disturbances and we illustrate a statistical link, at interannual timescale, between Sea Surface Temperature and AEWs activity. At intraseasonal time scale, the models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours in reproducing the synoptic features of the disturbances, namely AEWs amplitude and pattern. It is possible to classify the models into two groups, one localizing intense variability well inside the continental area, and the other exhibiting a weaker variance mostly placed over West Africa. Concerning the inter-annual variability, we point out a statistical link between SST anomalies and AEWs activity that reveals a strong influence of the ENSO events on the variability of the disturbances over the Guinean coasts. Warm/cold ENSO events occur in conjunction with suppressed/enhanced AEWs through upper tropospheric teleconnection bridge. Only two model running at significantly different vertical and horizontal resolution (INM and INGV-SGX) are able to reproduce this mechanism in accordance to what observed in the global reanalysis systems. Our result introduces non-negligible caveats with respect to the ability of most of CMIP3 models in obtaining reliable description of AEWs.

  7. Inter- and intra-examiner reliability of footprint pattern analysis obtained from diabetics using the Harris mat.

    PubMed

    Cisneros, Lígia de Loiola; Fonseca, Tiago H S; Abreu, Vivianni C

    2010-01-01

    High plantar pressure is a proven risk factor for ulceration among individuals with diabetes mellitus. The Harris and Beath footprinting mat is one of the tools used in screening for foot ulceration risk among these subjects. There are no reports in the literature on the reliability of footprint analysis using print pattern criteria. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-examiner reliability of the analysis of footprint patterns obtained using the Harris and Beath footprinting mat. Footprints were taken from 41 subjects using the footprinting mat. The images were subjected to analysis by three independent examiners. To investigate the intra-examiner reliability, the analysis was repeated by one of the examiners one week later. The weighted kappa coefficient was excellent (K(w) > 0.80) for the inter- and intra-examiner analyses for most of the points studied on both feet. The criteria for analyzing footprint patterns obtained using the Harris and Beath footprinting mat presented good reliability and high to excellent inter- and intra-examiner agreement. This method is reliable for analyses involving one or more examiners. Article registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) under the number ACTRN12609000693224.

  8. Twenty-year inter-annual trends and seasonal variations in precipitation and stream water chemistry at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA.

    PubMed

    Navrátil, Tomas; Norton, Stephen A; Fernandez, Ivan J; Nelson, Sarah J

    2010-12-01

    Mean annual concentration of SO4(-2) in wet-only deposition has decreased between 1988 and 2006 at the paired watershed study at Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA (BBWM) due to substantially decreased emissions of SO(2). Emissions of NO(x) have not changed substantially, but deposition has declined slightly at BBWM. Base cations, NH4+, and Cl(-) concentrations were largely unchanged, with small irregular changes of <1 μeq L(-1) per year from 1988 to 2006. Precipitation chemistry, hydrology, vegetation, and temperature drive seasonal stream chemistry. Low flow periods were typical in June-October, with relatively greater contributions of deeper flow solutions with higher pH; higher concentrations of acid-neutralizing capacity, Si, and non-marine Na; and low concentrations of inorganic Al. High flow periods during November-May were typically dominated by solutions following shallow flow paths, which were characterized by lower pH and higher Al and DOC concentrations. Biological activity strongly controlled NO3- and K(+). They were depressed during the growing season and elevated in the fall. Since 1987, East Bear Brook (EB), the reference stream, has been slowly responding to reduced but still elevated acid deposition. Calcium and Mg have declined fairly steadily and faster than SO4(-2), with consequent acidification (lower pH and higher inorganic Al). Eighteen years of experimental treatment with (NH(4))(2)SO(4) enhanced acidification of West Bear Brook's (WB) watershed. Despite the manipulation, NH4+ concentration remained below detection limits at WB, while leaching of NO3- increased. The seasonal pattern for NO3- concentrations in WB, however, remained similar to EB. Mean monthly concentrations of SO4(-2) have increased in WB since 1989, initially only during periods of high flow, but gradually also during base flow. Increases in mean monthly concentrations of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), and K(+) due to the manipulation occurred from 1989 until about 1995, during the

  9. Impacts of high inter-annual variability of rainfall on a century of extreme hydrologic regime of northwest Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouillard, A.; Skrzypek, G.; Dogramaci, S.; Turney, C.; Grierson, P. F.

    2015-04-01

    Long-term hydrologic records provide crucial reference baselines of natural variability that can be used to evaluate potential changes in hydrologic regimes and their impacts. However, there is a dearth of studies of the hydrologic regimes for tropical drylands where intraseasonal and interannual variability in magnitude and frequency of precipitation are extreme. Here, we sought to identify the main hydroclimatic determinants of the strongly episodic flood regime of a large catchment in the semi-arid, subtropical northwest of Australia and to establish the background of hydrologic variability for the region over the last century. We used a monthly sequence of satellite images to quantify surface water expression on the Fortescue Marsh, the largest water feature of inland northwest Australia, from 1988 to 2012. We used this sequence together with instrumental rainfall data to build a statistical model with multiple linear regression and reconstruct monthly history of floods and droughts since 1912. We found that severe and intense regional rainfall events, as well as the sequence of recharge events both within and between years, determine surface water expression on the floodplain (i.e. total rainfall, number of rain days and carried-over inundated area; R2adj = 0.79; p value < 0.001, ERMSP = 56 km2). The most severe reconstructed inundation over the last century was in March 2000 (1000 km2), which is less than the 1300 km2 area required to overflow to the adjacent catchment. The Fortescue Marsh was completely dry for 32% of all years, for periods of up to four consecutive years. Extremely wet years (seven of the 100 years) caused the Marsh to remain inundated for up to 12 months; only 25% of years (9% of all months) had floods of greater than 300 km2. The prolonged, severe and consecutive yearly inundations between 1999 and 2006 were unprecedented compared to the last century. While there is high inter-annual variability in the system, if the frequency and

  10. Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavia, Edgar G.; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Graef, Federico

    2015-07-01

    An ensemble of future climate projections performed with the regional climate model RegCM4 is used to assess changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America (SMECAM). Two different Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 are used to provide boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations. This results in four regional climate projections extending from 1970 to 2100 for the greenhouse gas representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. The precipitation variability over the SMECAM region and its dependence on the gradient between Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are verified by reproducing SST anomaly patterns during wettest and driest years similar to those seen in observational datasets. RegCM4 does a comparably better job than the driving GCMs. This strong relationship between precipitation and SST anomalies does not appear to change substantially under future climate conditions. For the rainy season, June to September, we find a future change in inter-annual variability of precipitation towards a much greater occurrence of very dry seasons over the SMECAM region, with this change being more pronounced in the regional than in the global model projections. A greater warming of the Tropical Northeastern Pacific (TNP) compared to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), which causes stronger wind fluxes from the TNA to the TNP through the Caribbean Low Level Jet, is identified as the main process responsible for these drier conditions.

  11. Inter-annual Variability in Net Ecosystem Exchange of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in a Temperate Freshwater Marsh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonneville, M.; Strachan, I.

    2009-05-01

    There exists very little information on greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange in marsh wetlands, especially in temperate climates. Measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes were made from May 2005 to June 2008 in a temperate freshwater cattail marsh in Eastern Ontario, Canada. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 was measured continuously using the eddy covariance technique, and closed chambers were used to measure CH4 emissions from open water, soil, and vegetated portions of the marsh. Based on NEE, we found that the marsh accumulated 264 g C m-2 from May 2005 to April 2006 and 185 g C m-2 and 308 g C m-2 in 2006-2007 and 2007-2008, respectively. Lower spring temperature in 2005 seems to have delayed the initial growth of cattails and therefore led to a later switchover time from a net CO2 source to a net CO2 sink compared to spring 2006 and 2007. The lower cumulative NEE measured in 2006-2007 is mainly due to the cloudy conditions (i.e. low average incoming photosynthetically active radiation) that occurred through late summer and early fall 2006, which greatly decreased cattail photosynthesis and induced an earlier death of the pants, which in turn resulted in a lower average CO2 uptake compared to the other years. During the 2005, 2006 and 2007 growing seasons, the carbon uptake period was 109, 104, and 116 days in length, which is consistent with the inter-annual variability in NEE observed. The results suggest that the timing of the fall switchover from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source is probably the main factor influencing the annual CO2 accumulation. The average CH4 flux measured from open water was 658 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2005, 381 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2006, and 352 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The average CH4 flux from vegetation was 1001 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2005, 1640 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2006, and 1260 mg CH4 m-2 d-1 in 2008. The CH4 flux from soil was only measured in 2006 (255 mg CH4 m-2 d-1) and 2008 (224 mg CH4 m-2 d-1). It is known that the

  12. Potential Influence of Arctic Sea Ice to the Inter-annual Variations of East Asian Spring Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xinxin; Wu, Zhiwei; Li, Yanjie

    2016-04-01

    Arctic sea ice (ASI) and its potential climatic impacts have received increasing attention during the past decades, yet the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly on how anomalous ASI affects climate in midlatitudes. The spring precipitation takes up as much as 30% of the annual total and has significant influences to agriculture in East Asia. Here, observed evidence and numerical experiment results manifest that the ASI variability in the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea in preceding winter is intimately connected with interannual variations of the East Asian spring precipitation (EAP). The former can explain about 14% of the total variances of the latter. The ASI anomalies persist from winter through the ensuing spring and excite downstream tele-connections of a distinct Rossby wave train prevailing over the Eurasian continent. For the reduced ASI, such a wave train pattern is usually associated with an anomalous low pressure center over Mongolian Plateau, which accelerates the East Asian subtropical westerly jet. The intensified subtropical westerly jet, concurrent with lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, enhances the local convection and consequently favors rich spring precipitation over East Asia. For the excessive ASI, the situation tends to be opposite. Given that seasonal prediction of the EAP remains a challenging issue, the winter ASI variability may provide another potential predictability source besides El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  13. Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Volk, Jennifer A.; Scudlark, Joseph R.; Savidge, Karen B.; Andres, A. Scott; Stenger, Robert J.; Ullman, William J.

    2012-01-01

    Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998-2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely.

  14. Intra- and inter-annual trends in phosphorus loads and comparison with nitrogen loads to Rehoboth Bay, Delaware (USA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Volk, J.A.; Scudlark, J.R.; Savidge, K.B.; Andres, A.S.; Stenger, R.J.; Ullman, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    Monthly phosphorus loads from uplands, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater to Rehoboth Bay (Delaware) were determined from October 1998 to April 2002 to evaluate the relative importance of these three sources of P to the Bay. Loads from a representative subwatershed were determined and used in an areal extrapolation to estimate the upland load from the entire watershed. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and dissolved organic P (DOP) are the predominant forms of P in baseflow and P loads from the watershed are highest during the summer months. Particulate phosphorus (PP) becomes more significant in stormflow and during periods with more frequent or larger storms. Atmospheric deposition of P is only a minor source of P to Rehoboth Bay. During the period of 1998-2002, wastewater was the dominant external source of P to Rehoboth Bay, often exceeding all other P sources combined. Since 2002, however, due to technical improvements to the sole wastewater plant discharging directly to the Bay, the wastewater contribution of P has been significantly reduced and upland waters are now the principal source of P on an annualized basis. Based on comparison of N and P loads, primary productivity and biomass carrying capacity in Rehoboth Bay should be limited by P availability. However, due to the contrasting spatial and temporal patterns of N and P loading and perhaps internal cycling within the ecosystem, spatial and temporal variations in N and P-limitation within Rehoboth Bay are likely. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Current practice patterns and knowledge among gynecologic surgeons of InterStim® programming after implantation.

    PubMed

    Hobson, Deslyn T G; Gaskins, Jeremy T; Frazier, LaTisha; Francis, Sean L; Kinman, Casey L; Meriwether, Kate V

    2017-10-03

    The objective of this study was to describe surgeons' current practices in InterStim® programming after initial implantation and their knowledge of programming parameters. We hypothesized that surgeons performing their own reprogramming would have increased knowledge. We administered a written survey to attendees at the Society of Gynecologic Surgeons Scientific Meeting and analyzed those on which surgeons indicated they offer InterStim® care. The survey queried surgeon characteristics, experience with InterStim® implantation and programming, and clinical opinions regarding reprogramming and tested six knowledge-based questions about programming parameters. Correct response to all six questions was the primary outcome. One hundred and thirty-five of 407 (33%) attendees returned the survey, of which 99 met inclusion criteria. Most respondents (88 of 99; 89%) were between 36 and 60 years, 27 (73%) were women, 76 (77%) practiced in a university setting, and 76 (77%) were trained in Female Pelvic Medicine and Reconstructive Surgery (FPMRS). Surgeons who had InterStim® programming training were more likely to perform their own programming [15/46 (32%) vs 6/47 (13%), p = 0.03]. Most answered all knowledge-based questions correctly (62/90, 69%); no surgeon characteristics were significantly associated with this outcome. Most surgeons cited patient comfort (71/80, 89%) and symptom relief (64/80, 80%) as important factors when reprogramming, but no prevalent themes emerged on how and why surgeons change certain programming parameters. Surgeons who had formal InterStim® programming training are more likely to perform programming themselves. No surgeon characteristic was associated with improved programming knowledge. We found that surgeons prioritize patient comfort and symptoms when deciding to reprogram.

  16. Preserving prairies: Understanding temporal and spatial patterns of invasive annual bromes in the Northern Great Plains

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ashton, Isabel; Symstad, Amy; Davis, Christopher; Swanson, Daniel J.

    2016-01-01

    Two Eurasian invasive annual brome grasses, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and Japanese brome (Bromus japonicus), are well known for their impact in steppe ecosystems of the western United States where these grasses have altered fire regimes, reduced native plant diversity and abundance, and degraded wildlife habitat. Annual bromes are also abundant in the grasslands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), but their impact and ecology are not as well studied. It is unclear whether the lessons learned from the steppe will translate to the mixed-grass prairie where native plant species are adapted to frequent fires and grazing. Developing a successful annual brome management strategy for National Park Service units and other NGP grasslands requires better understanding of (1) the impact of annual bromes on grassland condition; (2) the dynamics of these species through space and time; and (3) the relative importance of environmental factors within and outside managers' control for these spatiotemporal dynamics. Here, we use vegetation monitoring data collected from 1998 to 2015 in 295 sites to relate spatiotemporal variability of annual brome grasses to grassland composition, weather, physical environmental characteristics, and ecological processes (grazing and fire). Concern about the impact of these species in NGP grasslands is warranted, as we found a decline in native species richness with increasing annual brome cover. Annual brome cover generally increased over the time of monitoring but also displayed a 3- to 5-yr cycle of reduction and resurgence. Relative cover of annual bromes in the monitored areas was best predicted by park unit, weather, extant plant community, slope grade, soil composition, and fire history. We found no evidence that grazing reduced annual brome cover, but this may be due to the relatively low grazing pressure in our study. By understanding the consequences and patterns of annual brome invasion, we will be better able to preserve and restore

  17. Intra- and inter-speaker variations of formant pattern for lateral syllables in Standard Chinese.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Cuiling; van de Weijer, Joost; Cui, Jingxu

    2006-05-10

    Speech variation of speakers is a crucial issue for speaker recognition and identification, especially for forensic practice. Greater intra-speaker variation is one main reason for incorrect speaker identification in real forensic situations. Understanding the stability of acoustic parameters and their variation in speech is therefore significant for the evaluation of effective parameters for speaker identification. In this paper, all vowels in Standard Chinese including five monophthongs, eight diphthongs and four triphthongs were combined with lateral /l/. Finally, 15 lateral syllables with different tones for 10 speakers were selected and acoustically analyzed. Central frequencies of the first four formants for each syllable were measured for quantitative comparison of intra- and inter-speaker variation in order to provide a general idea of speaker variation in Standard Chinese, and finally serving for forensic application. Results show that the overall intra-speaker variation is less than the inter-speaker variation in great extent under laboratory condition though occasionally they are contrary. This supports the basis for forensic speaker identification, that is, intra-speaker variation should be less than inter-speaker variation in many acoustic features, and further validates the probability and reliability of forensic speaker identification.

  18. Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    to statistically significant positive. We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. Further, we find that there is statistically positive intrinsic relation between AISMR and AMO from 26 to 100 year time scales which is modulated by ICFs (PDO, ENSO) and ECFs. PDO, ENSO, and solar activity weaken this intrinsic relationship whereas the combined effect of ECFc (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, CO2, & tropospheric aerosol optical depth) results in strengthening of this relationship from 70 to 100 year time scales. There is a negative intrinsic relation between AISMR and PDO which is not statistically significant at any time scale. However this relationship becomes statistically significant only in the presence of combined effect of North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO (4-39 year time scale) and individual effect of TSI (3-26 year time scale) on AISMR. We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

  19. Density stratification in an estuary with complex geometry: Driving processes and relationship to hypoxia on monthly to inter-annual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Codiga, Daniel L.

    2012-12-01

    The density field in Narragansett Bay (NB), a northeast U.S. estuary with complex geometry that suffers hypoxia, is described and related to driving factors using monthly means from time series observations at 9 sites during late spring to early fall 2001-2009. Stratification (deep-shallow density difference) is dominated by salinity and strongest (4-7 kg m-3 in late spring) near rivers in the north and east. Shallow horizontal density gradients are about 0.2 kg m-3 km-1; deep densities have minor spatial and seasonal variations. Geographic structure in density, and its inter-annual anomalies, is weaker than expected based on the complex geometry and large size relative to the internal deformation radius. Inter-annual variability is primarily driven by river flow and weakly influenced by winds, contrasting nearby systems (Chesapeake Bay, Long Island Sound), likely due to reduced fetch and/or unfavorable alignment with prevailing winds. Stratification response to river flow follows 2/3 power scaling despite that the theory omits important NB attributes (complex geometry, depth-varying horizontal gradients). Contrasting other systems (Delaware Bay, San Francisco Bay), horizontal gradients are at least as responsive to river forcing as theoretical 1/3 power scaling; depth-dependent horizontal gradients or finite basin constraint of intrusion length may be responsible. Bay-wide inter-annual variations in seasonal hypoxia correlate with late spring stratification, though stratification peaks in the north and east with hypoxia most severe in the north and west. Long-term response of stratification, and thus its role in hypoxia, to climate-driven increases in river flow and temperatures will be dominated by the former.

  20. The inter-annual variability of mesosphere-thermosphere nightglow intensities and their possible coupling with cosmic factors and lower atmosphere climatology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didebulidze, Goderdzi; Todua, Maya

    2016-07-01

    Possible coupling of the inter-annual/seasonal variations of the mesosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere parameters with cosmic factors and climatology of the lower atmosphere are considered using the nightglow intensity observations from Abastumani (41.75 E; 42.82 E) of (a) the mesopause hydroxyl OH(8-3) bands (maximum luminous layer about 87 km), (b) the thermosphere oxygen green 557.7 nm line (main maximum of luminous layer in the lower thermosphere at about 95 km and small part from the ionosphere F2 region with its peak at about 230-280 km) and (c) the red 630.0 nm line (emitted from the ionosphere F2 region with maximum luminous layer about 230-280 km), which include three eleven-year solar cycles. The observed inter-annual variations of the OH bands and green line, along with their maximal values at spring (March-April) and fall (September-October) equinoxial periods, which are noticed also from other regions, exhibit additional maxima in June. The red line intensity mainly tends to decrease at equinoxial months, while it is maximal in summer and is accompanied by relatively small increase in June (compared to May and July). Maximal values of OH band and green line intensities in June are observed both in maximum and minimum phases of solar activity. This is considered as a manifestation of the features of the upper and lower atmosphere dynamical coupling of this region of Caucasus. The importance of atmospheric gravity waves and tidal motions in the observed specifics of seasonal changes of the lower and upper atmosphere-ionosphere coupling processes is indicated. The seasonal distribution tidal motions like changes of the mesopause and lower thermosphere with 6-12 hours period variations are demonstrated, which could be in situ developed and also coupled with lower atmosphere climatology. The daily mean temperature (with maximum in August) and its changes with heights (maximum in June) can influence cloud covering of this region and thus on generation of

  1. Secular Change and Inter-annual Variability of the Gulf Stream Position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisagni, J. J.; Gangopadhyay, A.

    2016-12-01

    The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) "conveyer belt" that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of annual mean Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52° W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 70°, 65°, 60° and 55° W show a southward secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to the west. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer LC transport increases near 52° W. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52° W is significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55° W at a lag of +1-year. Spectral analysis reveals inter-annual peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (65°-55°W) and LC transport for 1993-2013. A volume calculation using the LC rms residual of +1.04 Sv near 52° W results in an estimated GSNW residual of 79 km, or 63% of the observed 125.6 km (1.13°) rms value at 55° W. A similar volume calculation using the positive long-term, upper-layer LC transport trend accounts for 68% of the observed southward shift of the GSNW over the 1993-2013 period. Our work provides observational evidence of direct interaction between the upper layers of the sub-polar and sub-tropical gyres within the North Atlantic over secular and inter-annual time scales as suggested by previous workers.

  2. North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; hide

    2015-01-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include

  3. North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

    2016-01-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which

  4. Inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the Biobío River, Central Chile: an analysis base on a decadal database along with 1-D reactive transport modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yévenes, M.; Figueroa, R.; Parra, O.; Farías, L.

    2015-01-01

    Rivers may act as important sinks (filters) or sources for inorganic nutrients between the land and the sea, depending on the biogeochemical processes and nutrient inputs along the river. This study examines the inter-annual variability of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) seasonal (wet-dry) cycle for the Biobío River, one of the largest and most industrialized rivers of Central Chile (36°45'-38°49' S and 71°00'-73°20' W). Long-term water flow (1990-2012) and water quality datasets (2004-2012) were used along with a one-dimensional reactive transport ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of water flow and N inputs on seasonal pattern of DIN. From 2004 to 2012, annual average nitrate levels significantly increased from 1.73 ± 2.17 μmol L-1 (upstream of the river) to 18.4 ± 12.7 μmol L-1 (in the river mouth); while the annual average oxygen concentration decreased from 348 ± 22 to 278 ± 42 μmol L-1 between upstream and downstream, indicating an additional oxygen consumption. Variability in the mid-section of the river (station BB8) was identified as a major influence on the inter-annual variability and appeared to be the site of a major anthropogenic disturbance. However, there was also an influence of climate on riverine DIN concentrations; high DIN production occurred during wet years, whereas high consumption proceeded during dry years. Extremely reduced river flow and drought during summer also strongly affected the annual DIN concentration, reducing the DIN production. Additionally, summer storm events during drought periods appeared to cause significant runoff resulting in nitrate inputs to the river. The total DIN input reaching the river mouth was 0.159 Gmol yr-1, implying that internal production exceeds consumption processes, and identifying nitrification as one of the predominant processes occurring in the estuary. In the following, the impact on the river of DIN increases as a nutrient source, as well as climate and biogeochemical factors

  5. Inter-dependent tissue growth and Turing patterning in a model for long bone development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Simon; Iber, Dagmar

    2013-10-01

    The development of long bones requires a sophisticated spatial organization of cellular signalling, proliferation, and differentiation programs. How such spatial organization emerges on the growing long bone domain is still unresolved. Based on the reported biochemical interactions we developed a regulatory model for the core signalling factors IHH, PTCH1, and PTHrP and included two cell types, proliferating/resting chondrocytes and (pre-)hypertrophic chondrocytes. We show that the reported IHH-PTCH1 interaction gives rise to a Schnakenberg-type Turing kinetics, and that inclusion of PTHrP is important to achieve robust patterning when coupling patterning and tissue dynamics. The model reproduces relevant spatiotemporal gene expression patterns, as well as a number of relevant mutant phenotypes. In summary, we propose that a ligand-receptor based Turing mechanism may control the emergence of patterns during long bone development, with PTHrP as an important mediator to confer patterning robustness when the sensitive Turing system is coupled to the dynamics of a growing and differentiating tissue. We have previously shown that ligand-receptor based Turing mechanisms can also result from BMP-receptor, SHH-receptor, and GDNF-receptor interactions, and that these reproduce the wildtype and mutant patterns during digit formation in limbs and branching morphogenesis in lung and kidneys. Receptor-ligand interactions may thus constitute a general mechanism to generate Turing patterns in nature.

  6. Root-associated fungi of Vaccinium carlesii in subtropical forests of China: intra- and inter-annual variability and impacts of human disturbances

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yanhua; Ni, Jian; Tang, Fangping; Pei, Kequan; Luo, Yiqi; Jiang, Lifen; Sun, Lifu; Liang, Yu

    2016-01-01

    Ericoid mycorrhiza (ERM) are expected to facilitate establishment of ericaceous plants in harsh habitats. However, diversity and driving factors of the root-associated fungi of ericaceous plants are poorly understood. In this study, hair-root samples of Vaccinium carlesii were taken from four forest types: old growth forests (OGF), secondary forests with once or twice cutting (SEC I and SEC II), and Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation (PLF). Fungal communities were determined using high-throughput sequencing, and impacts of human disturbances and the intra- and inter-annual variability of root-associated fungal community were evaluated. Diverse fungal taxa were observed and our results showed that (1) Intra- and inter-annual changes in root-associated fungal community were found, and the Basidiomycota to Ascomycota ratio was related to mean temperature of the sampling month; (2) Human disturbances significantly affected structure of root-associated fungal community of V. carlesii, and two secondary forest types were similar in root-associated fungal community and were closer to that of the old growth forest; (3) Plant community composition, edaphic parameters, and geographic factors significantly affected root-associated fungal communities of V. carlesii. These results may be helpful in better understanding the maintenance mechanisms of fungal diversity associated with hair roots of ERM plants under human disturbances. PMID:26928608

  7. Satellite views of seasonal and inter-annual variability of phytoplankton blooms in the eastern China seas over the past 14 yr (1998-2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, X. Q.; Bai, Y.; Pan, D. L.; Chen, C.-T. A.; Chen, Q.; Wang, D. F.; Gong, F.

    2013-01-01

    The eastern China seas are one of the largest marginal seas in the world, where high primary productivity and phytoplankton blooms are often observed. However, to date, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in these areas due to the difficulty of the monitoring of bloom events by field measurement. In this study, 14-yr time series of satellite ocean color data from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite have been used to investigate the seasonal and inter-annual variability and long-term changes of phytoplankton blooms in the eastern China seas. We validated and calibrated the satellite-derive chlorophyll concentration in the eastern China seas based on extensive data sets from two large cruises. Overestimation of satellite-derive chlorophyll concentration caused by high water turbidity was found to be less than 10 μg L-1. This level can be used as a safe threshold for the identification of a phytoplankton bloom in a marginal sea with turbid waters. Annually, blooms mostly occur in the Changjiang Estuary and along the coasts of Zhejiang. The coasts of the northern Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea also have high-frequency blooms. The blooms have significant seasonal variation, with most of the blooms occurring in the spring (April-June) and summer (July-September). This study revealed a doubling in bloom intensity in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea during the past 14 yr (1998-2011), yet surprisingly, there has been no decadal increase or decrease of bloom intensity in despite of significant inter-annual variation in the Changjiang Estuary. The time series in situ datasets show that both the nitrate and phosphate concentrations increase more than twofold from 1998 to 2005. This might be the reason for the doubling of bloom intensity in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. In addition, the ENSO and PDO can affect the inter-annual variation

  8. Differential Annual Movement Patterns in a Migratory Species: Effects of Experience and Sexual Maturation

    PubMed Central

    Jorge, Paulo E.; Sowter, David; Marques, Paulo A. M.

    2011-01-01

    Some animals migrate long distances to exploit important seasonal food resources in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere, whilst avoiding winter starvation. Changes in the individual's age and navigational skills are likely to affect migration, which in turn influences the geographic distribution of individuals. Processes such as sexual maturation and navigational abilities are affected by age, and age is thus a key factor in understanding migration patterns and differences in distribution ranges. In the present study, we investigated the effects of age on the geographic distribution of a population of Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus throughout its annual cycle, by analyzing a dataset of 19,096 records from 10,000 color-ringed gulls. In contrast to previous assumptions, the results showed that gulls were geographically segregated by age throughout the entire annual cycle, rather than showing a geographic age-related cline only in the wintering areas. This asymmetric distribution results from a reduction in the annual range of sexually mature gulls, and the differential distribution of mature and immature individuals (mature birds remained in more northern areas, compared to immature birds, throughout the annual cycle). Furthermore, although immature gulls travelled longer distances than adults, they initiated their fall migration with short movements, in contrast to adults that migrated using longer movements. The effects identified in this study explain the non-homogenous distribution of populations throughout the annual cycle, with wide implications for the development of effective human health policies and/or wildlife management strategies. PMID:21799853

  9. Differential annual movement patterns in a migratory species: effects of experience and sexual maturation.

    PubMed

    Jorge, Paulo E; Sowter, David; Marques, Paulo A M

    2011-01-01

    Some animals migrate long distances to exploit important seasonal food resources in the northern regions of the northern hemisphere, whilst avoiding winter starvation. Changes in the individual's age and navigational skills are likely to affect migration, which in turn influences the geographic distribution of individuals. Processes such as sexual maturation and navigational abilities are affected by age, and age is thus a key factor in understanding migration patterns and differences in distribution ranges. In the present study, we investigated the effects of age on the geographic distribution of a population of Lesser Black-backed Gulls Larus fuscus throughout its annual cycle, by analyzing a dataset of 19,096 records from 10,000 color-ringed gulls. In contrast to previous assumptions, the results showed that gulls were geographically segregated by age throughout the entire annual cycle, rather than showing a geographic age-related cline only in the wintering areas. This asymmetric distribution results from a reduction in the annual range of sexually mature gulls, and the differential distribution of mature and immature individuals (mature birds remained in more northern areas, compared to immature birds, throughout the annual cycle). Furthermore, although immature gulls travelled longer distances than adults, they initiated their fall migration with short movements, in contrast to adults that migrated using longer movements. The effects identified in this study explain the non-homogenous distribution of populations throughout the annual cycle, with wide implications for the development of effective human health policies and/or wildlife management strategies.

  10. Seasonal, inter-annual and solar cycle variability of the quasi two day wave in the low-latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, N. Venkateswara; Ratnam, M. Venkat; Vedavathi, C.; Tsuda, T.; Murthy, B. V. Krishna; Sathishkumar, S.; Gurubaran, S.; Kumar, K. Kishore; Subrahmanyam, K. V.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara

    2017-01-01

    We analyzed 17 years (1993-2009) of horizontal winds measured by the medium frequency (MF) radar located at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E) and 10 years (2005-2014) of horizontal winds measured by a meteor radar located at Thumba (8.5°N, 77°E) to examine the seasonal, inter-annual, and solar cycle variability of the Quasi-Two Day Wave (QTDW) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. These two radars are nearly co-located, but differ in their measurement technique. Comparison of the estimated QTDW amplitudes by the two radars shows that the amplitudes are larger in the meteor radar than those in the MF radar. The difference between the amplitudes is larger in May in the zonal component and in April and September in the meridional one. Furthermore, the differences are larger in the meridional component. The QTDWs in both the radars show a strong semi-annual oscillation (SAO). In addition, the meridional QTDW amplitudes of both the MF and meteor radars show a distinct enhancement in the month of October. While the whole spectra of QTDWs contribute to the SAO amplitudes, only 45-50 h waves contribute to the October enhancement. The amplitudes of the QTDWs, in general, show large inter-annual variability. The QTDW amplitudes from both the radars show modulation at period of quasi-biennial oscillation. The QTDWs of the MF radar show a small negative correlation with solar activity while those of meteor radar do not show any correlation. The above aspects are discussed in the light of current understanding of the QTDWs.

  11. Impact of intra- versus inter-annual snow depth variation on water relations and photosynthesis for two Great Basin Desert shrubs.

    PubMed

    Loik, Michael E; Griffith, Alden B; Alpert, Holly; Concilio, Amy L; Wade, Catherine E; Martinson, Sharon J

    2015-06-01

    Snowfall provides the majority of soil water in certain ecosystems of North America. We tested the hypothesis that snow depth variation affects soil water content, which in turn drives water potential (Ψ) and photosynthesis, over 10 years for two widespread shrubs of the western USA. Stem Ψ (Ψ stem) and photosynthetic gas exchange [stomatal conductance to water vapor (g s), and CO2 assimilation (A)] were measured in mid-June each year from 2004 to 2013 for Artemisia tridentata var. vaseyana (Asteraceae) and Purshia tridentata (Rosaceae). Snow fences were used to create increased or decreased snow depth plots. Snow depth on +snow plots was about twice that of ambient plots in most years, and 20 % lower on -snow plots, consistent with several down-scaled climate model projections. Maximal soil water content at 40- and 100-cm depths was correlated with February snow depth. For both species, multivariate ANOVA (MANOVA) showed that Ψ stem, g s, and A were significantly affected by intra-annual variation in snow depth. Within years, MANOVA showed that only A was significantly affected by spatial snow depth treatments for A. tridentata, and Ψ stem was significantly affected by snow depth for P. tridentata. Results show that stem water relations and photosynthetic gas exchange for these two cold desert shrub species in mid-June were more affected by inter-annual variation in snow depth by comparison to within-year spatial variation in snow depth. The results highlight the potential importance of changes in inter-annual variation in snowfall for future shrub photosynthesis in the western Great Basin Desert.

  12. Evaluation of spatial productivity patterns in an annual grassland during an AVIRIS overflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gamon, John A.; Field, Christopher B.; Ustin, Susan L.

    1992-01-01

    In May 1991, coincident with an Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) overflight, a ground-based study covering 9 hectares of an annual grassland was completed. There were two goals of this ground study: (1) obtain ecologically and physiologically meaningful data for relating AVIRIS images to canopy structure, biochemistry, and physiology; and (2) evaluate the suitability of the 20-m AVIRIS pixel size for depicting detailed spatial patterns of productivity.

  13. Inter-regional comparison of patterns and trends in surface water acidification across the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Newell, A.D.

    1993-01-01

    Temporal trends in acid-base chemistry are reported for surface waters in 6 regions of the United States. The lakes and streams are low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), dilute systems, selected to represent acid-sensitive aquatic resources in the 6 regions. The predominant trends observed were decreases in lake and stream SO4(2-) concentrations in sites east of the Mississippi River, and increases in NO3(-) in the Adirondack lake and Catskill stream sites (both located in eastern New York State). Correlations of trend results from all sites with other factors indicated that trends in precipitation volume were highly correlated with the observed trend patterns. From the surface water trend results, three distinct clusters were identified that corresponded to three trend patterns: 'dilution', recovery', and 'acidification', which were distributed across the Long-Term Monitoring (LTM) regions with no particular geographic patterns. (Copyright (c) 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers.)

  14. Climate effects on inter- and intra-annual larch stemwood anomalies in the Mongolian forest-steppe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khishigjargal, Mookhor; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Leuschner, Hanns Hubert; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

    2014-02-01

    Climate response of tree-ring width and intra-annual wood anomalies were studied in stands of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) on Mt. Bogd Uul in the forest-steppe ecotone of Mongolia. Climate on Mt. Bogd Uul is characterized by an increase of the annual mean temperature by 1.5 K between 1965 and 2007, the lack of a long-term trend for annual precipitation and, with it, an increase in aridity. Tree-ring width increases with increasing June precipitation of the current year (June) and increasing late summer precipitation of the previous year. In >100-year old trees, also a negative correlation of tree-ring width with the July temperature of the year prior to tree-ring formation was found. Decreasing tree-ring width with increasing snowfall in December can be explained with the protection of the frost-sensitive eggs of gypsy moth by snow cover, which is a major herbivore of larch in Mongolia and causes reduction in the annual stem increment. The most significant change in wood anatomy was the decline of wide latewood, which is attributable to the increase of summer days with a mean temperature > 15 °C and drought periods in summer without precipitation. Increasing summer drought is also thought to have caused the repeated occurrence of missing rings since the 1960s, which were not observed in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

  15. Local network parameters can affect inter-network phase lags in central pattern generators.

    PubMed

    Jones, S R; Kopell, N

    2006-01-01

    Weakly coupled phase oscillators and strongly coupled relaxation oscillators have different mechanisms for creating stable phase lags. Many oscillations in central pattern generators combine features of each type of coupling: local networks composed of strongly coupled relaxation oscillators are weakly coupled to similar local networks. This paper analyzes the phase lags produced by this combination of mechanisms and shows how the parameters of a local network, such as the decay time of inhibition, can affect the phase lags between the local networks. The analysis is motivated by the crayfish central pattern generator used for swimming, and uses techniques from geometrical singular perturbation theory.

  16. Seasonal changes in spatial patterns of two annual plants in the Chihuahuan Desert, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yin, Z.-Y.; Guo, Q.; Ren, H.; Peng, S.-L.

    2005-01-01

    Spatial pattern of a biotic population may change over time as its component individuals grow or die out, but whether this is the case for desert annual plants is largely unknown. Here we examined seasonal changes in spatial patterns of two annuals, Eriogonum abertianum and Haplopappus gracilis, in initial (winter) and final (summer) densities. The density was measured as the number of individuals from 384 permanent quadrats (each 0.5 m × 0.5 m) in the Chihuahuan Desert near Portal, Arizona, USA. We used three probability distributions (binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial or NB) that represent three basic spatial patterns (regular, random, and clumped) to fit the observed frequency distributions of densities of the two annuals. Both species showed clear clumped patterns as characterized by the NB and had similar inverse J-shaped frequency distribution curves in two density categories. Also, both species displayed a reduced degree of aggregation from winter to summer after the spring drought (massive die-off), as indicated by the increased k-parameter of the NB and decreased values of another NB parameter p, variance/mean ratio, Lloyd’s Index of Patchiness, and David and Moore’s Index of Clumping. Further, we hypothesized that while the NB (i.e., Poisson-logarithmic) well fits the distribution of individuals per quadrat, its components, the Poisson and logarithmic, may describe the distributions of clumps per quadrat and of individuals per clump, respectively. We thus obtained the means and variances for (1) individuals per quadrat, (2) clumps per quadrat, and (3) individuals per clump. The results showed that the decrease of the density from winter to summer for each plant resulted from the decrease of individuals per clump, rather than from the decrease of clumps per quadrat. The great similarities between the two annuals indicate that our observed temporal changes in spatial patterns may be common among desert annual plants.

  17. Inter-annual Variability of Biomass Burning Aerosol Optical Depth in Southern Amazonia, and the Impact of These Aerosols on the Diurnal Cycle of Solar Flux Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eck, T. F.; Holben, B. N.; Schafer, J. S.; Artaxo, P.; Yamasoe, M. A.; Procopio, A. S.; Prins, E. M.; Feltz, J. M.; Smirnov, A.; Dubovik, O.; Reid, J. S.

    2002-12-01

    The inter-annual variability of the magnitude of biomass burning in southern Amazonia has been relatively large over the last decade. The extent of the burning in the latter half of a given dry season (July-October) depends largely on the rainfall amount and timing, with drought years exhibiting many more fires and smoke than average. Additionally, new regulations aimed at controlling burning may also affect inter-annual variability. We present measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from biomass burning smoke as measured by AERONET sites in Rondonia and Mato Grosso from 1993-2002. These AOD measurements are shown to follow similar inter-annual variability as the fire counts determined by the multi-spectral radiance measurements obtained with GOES-8. However, the AOD at these sites exhibit relatively little diurnal variation despite a very large diurnal cycle in satellite detected fire counts. In order to quantify the changes in the diurnal cycle of solar flux reduction as a result of aerosol attenuation at the peak of the burning season, we model the diurnal cycle of total shortwave (SW; 300-4000 nm), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; 400-700 nm), and Ultraviolet- A (UVA; 320-400 nm) fluxes in mid-September using the AERONET monthly average AOD measurements (AOD(550 nm) = 1.11). These average diurnal cycle flux reductions show significant temporal delays in the morning for equivalent flux levels in all three spectral bands, of ~50 min to 2 hr 15 min at mid-morning (midpoint between sunrise and solar noon). The largest time delays in flux occur in the UVA band and the smallest in the total SW broadband due to a rapid decrease in AOD as wavelength increases for the accumulation mode smoke aerosols. The time delays in solar flux have implications for possible delay of the onset of cumulus convection, the shortening of the photo-period when plants photosynthesize, and reduced time interval for UVA fluxes which may have implications for photochemical

  18. Sensitivity of stream flow droughts, water shortage and water stress events to ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2014-05-01

    Governments and institutions managing water resources have to adapt constantly to regional drought, water shortage and water stress conditions, being caused by climate change, socio-economic developments and/or climate variability. Taking into account the impact of climate variability is important as in some regions it may outweigh long-term climate change or socio-economic developments, especially on a time scale of a few years up to a few decades. As governments and water management institutions apply planning horizons up to a decade with respect to management of adaptation strategies, inter-annual climate variability is especially relevant. A number of studies have estimated the impacts of climate variability on stream flow droughts on a local, continental or global scale. Others have focused on the role of long term climate change and socio-economic trends on blue water availability, shortage and stress. However, a global assessment of the influence of inter-annual climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, shortage and stress together has not yet been carried out, despite its importance for adaptation planning. To address this issue, we assessed the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, and shortage and stress events at the global scale. Within this contribution we focused on El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact as ENSO is the most dominant source of inter-annual climate variability, impacting climate and society. We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used daily discharge and run-off time-series (0.5º x 0.5º) of three WATCH forced global hydrological models (WaterGAP, PCR-GLOBWB, and STREAM); (2) in combination with time-series of population counts and monthly water demands we calculated monthly and yearly stream flow drought, water availability, water shortage and water stress per Food Producing Unit (FPU) for the period 1960-2000; and (3

  19. Inter-annual variability in the thermal structure of an oceanic time series station off Ecuador (1990-2003) associated with El Niño events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcés-Vargas, José; Schneider, Wolfgang; Abarca del Río, Rodrigo; Martínez, Rodney; Zambrano, Eduardo

    2005-10-01

    Previously unpublished data (1990-2003) from a marine station located 20 km off the coast of Ecuador (Station La Libertad, 02°12'S, 080°55'W) are employed to investigate oceanic inter-annual variability in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, and its relation to the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. La Libertad is the only time series station between the Galapagos Islands and the South American coast, the region most affected by El Niño events (El Niño 2 region, 0-5°S, 90°W-80°W). Although configured and serviced differently, station La Libertad can be looked at as an eastern extension of the TAO/TRITON monitoring system, whose easternmost mooring is located at 95°W, 1550 km offshore. This study of El Niño's impact on the thermocline and its relationship to sea surface temperature revealed anomalies in the thermocline at station La Libertad some 2-4 months before their appearance at the sea surface. Inter-annual variability, namely quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillations, accounts for roughly 80% of the total variance in temperature anomalies observed in the water column at station La Libertad. The coincidence in both phase and amplitude of these inter-annual oscillations explains the strength of El Niño events in the water column off La Libertad. We further show that anomalies in heat content appear 8-9 weeks earlier at 140°W in the equatorial Pacific (6550 km away from the coast) than at the coast itself. The arrival of El Niño, which has important regional social consequences as well as those for local fisheries, could therefore be predicted in the sub-surface waters off Ecuador by using these anomalies as a complementary index. In addition, the speed of the eastward propagation of these El Niño-associated anomalies' suggests the possible participation of higher-order baroclinic mode Kelvin waves and associated interaction processes in the eastern Pacific, which should be further investigated.

  20. Tropospheric ozone trends and carbon monoxide inter-annual variabilities using MOZAIC data (O3 from 1994-2007, CO from 2002-2007).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zbinden, R. M.; Cammas, J.-P.; Thouret, V.; Nédélec, P.

    2009-04-01

    MOZAIC program (Marenco al, 1998) is performing 13 years of very accurate O3, H2O measurements and 6 years for CO with the support of airliners on commercial aircraft. Data from take off and landing for 3 clusters of airports over Germany, East of U.S.A. and Japan with more than 21000 vertical profiles all together and a 50m resolution from ground to 11 km altitude are selected to derive tropospheric ozone trends and on a shorter period carbon monoxide tropospheric inter annual variabilities. Methodology to access to tropospheric columns as defined in Zbinden et al. (2006) is improved here by taking into account an estimation of the MOZAIC unvisited tropospheric layer up when the tropopause is not reach by the aircraft during ascent or descent phase. As tropospheric ozone trend is sensitive to tropopause altitude we try to estimate its impact on tropospheric column contents. Defined as the 2pvu potential vorticity surface, we notice a tropopause general increase over the period from +140m over Germany to +680m over Japan and a winter decrease from -80 to -200m. On one hand, trends from tropospheric O3 monthly time-series are always positive for O3 in the range [+0.9, +1.1 %/year] and on the other hand CO inter-annual variabilities are always negative in the range [-2.2, -2.8%/year]. Discussion about stratospheric intrusion contents as pure tropospheric air mass will be excluded from this presentation. Seasonal aspect of O3 tropospheric trends exhibits a winter-spring major increase [+0.7, +1.5 %/year] and a minor summer-fall increase [0,+0.8 %/year]. CO inter-annual variabilities seem highly decreasing during summer-fall [-4.5, -1.5 %/year] and during winter-spring inter-annual variabilities is found a minor lessening is in the range [0, -2.6%/year]. Contribution of boundary layer, mid-troposphere and upper-troposphere to the tropospheric trends will be detailed. We will also underline the influence of the observational time with a special focus on Germany, most

  1. Inter-annual variability of NDVI in response to long-term warming and fertilization in wet sedge and tussock tundra.

    PubMed

    Boelman, Natalie T; Stieglitz, Marc; Griffin, Kevin L; Shaver, Gaius R

    2005-05-01

    This study explores the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aboveground plant biomass for tussock tundra vegetation and compares it to a previously established NDVI-biomass relationship for wet sedge tundra vegetation. In addition, we explore inter-annual variation in NDVI in both these contrasting vegetation communities. All measurements were taken across long-term experimental treatments in wet sedge and tussock tundra communities at the Toolik Lake Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site, in northern Alaska. Over 15 years (for wet sedge tundra) and 14 years (for tussock tundra), N and P were applied in factorial experiments (N, P and N+P), air temperature was increased using greenhouses with and without N+P fertilizer, and light intensity was reduced by 50% using shade cloth. during the peak growing seasons of 2001, 2002, and 2003, NDVI measurements were made in both the wet sedge and tussock tundra experimental treatment plots, creating a 3-year time series of inter-annual variation in NDVI. We found that: (1) across all tussock experimental tundra treatments, NDVI is correlated with aboveground plant biomass (r2 = 0.59); (2) NDVI-biomass relationships for tussock and wet sedge tundra communities are community specific, and; (3) NDVI values for tussock tundra communities are typically, but not always, greater than for wet sedge tundra communities across all experimental treatments. We suggest that differences between the response of wet sedge and tussock tundra communities in the same experimental treatments result from the contrasting degree of heterogeneity in species and functional types that characterize each of these Arctic tundra vegetation communities.

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates and C stable isotopes in a Mediterranean beech forest.

    PubMed

    Scartazza, Andrea; Moscatello, Stefano; Matteucci, Giorgio; Battistelli, Alberto; Brugnoli, Enrico

    2013-07-01

    Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of growth, non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and carbon isotope composition (δ(13)C) of NSC were studied in a beech forest of Central Italy over a 2-year period characterized by different environmental conditions. The net C assimilated by forest trees was mainly used to sustain growth early in the season and to accumulate storage carbohydrates in trunk and root wood in the later part of the season, before leaf shedding. Growth and NSC concentration dynamics were only slightly affected by the reduced soil water content (SWC) during the drier year. Conversely, the carbon isotope analysis on NSC revealed seasonal and inter-annual variations of photosynthetic and post-carboxylation fractionation processes, with a significant increase in δ(13)C of wood and leaf soluble sugars in the drier summer year than in the wetter one. The highly significant correlation between δ(13)C of leaf soluble sugars and SWC suggests a decrease of the canopy C isotope discrimination and, hence, an increased water-use efficiency with decreasing soil water availability. This may be a relevant trait for maintaining an acceptable plant water status and a relatively high C sink capacity during dry seasonal periods. Our results suggest a short- to medium-term homeostatic response of the Collelongo beech stand to variations in water availability and solar radiation, indicating that this Mediterranean forest was able to adjust carbon-water balance in order to prevent C depletion and to sustain plant growth and reserve accumulation during relatively dry seasons.

  3. Soil moisture redistribution and its effect on inter-annual active layer temperature and thickness variations in a dry loess terrace in Adventdalen, Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuh, Carina; Frampton, Andrew; Hvidtfeldt Christiansen, Hanne

    2017-02-01

    High-resolution field data for the period 2000-2014 consisting of active layer and permafrost temperature, active layer soil moisture, and thaw depth progression from the UNISCALM research site in Adventdalen, Svalbard, is combined with a physically based coupled cryotic and hydrogeological model to investigate active layer dynamics. The site is a loess-covered river terrace characterized by dry conditions with little to no summer infiltration and an unsaturated active layer. A range of soil moisture characteristic curves consistent with loess sediments is considered and their effects on ice and moisture redistribution, heat flux, energy storage through latent heat transfer, and active layer thickness is investigated and quantified based on hydro-climatic site conditions. Results show that soil moisture retention characteristics exhibit notable control on ice distribution and circulation within the active layer through cryosuction and are subject to seasonal variability and site-specific surface temperature variations. The retention characteristics also impact unfrozen water and ice content in the permafrost. Although these effects lead to differences in thaw progression rates, the resulting inter-annual variability in active layer thickness is not large. Field data analysis reveals that variations in summer degree days do not notably affect the active layer thaw depths; instead, a cumulative winter degree day index is found to more significantly control inter-annual active layer thickness variation at this site. A tendency of increasing winter temperatures is found to cause a general warming of the subsurface down to 10 m depth (0.05 to 0.26 °C yr-1, observed and modelled) including an increasing active layer thickness (0.8 cm yr-1, observed and 0.3 to 0.8 cm yr-1, modelled) during the 14-year study period.

  4. Inter-decadal patterns of population and dietary change in sea otters at Amchitka Island, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watt, J.; Siniff, D.B.; Estes, J.A.

    2000-01-01

    After having been hunted to near-extinction in the Pacific maritime fur trade, the sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska increased from very low numbers in the early 1900s to near equilibrium density by the 1940s. The population persisted at or near equilibrium through the 1980s, but declined sharply in the 1990s in apparent response to increased killer whale predation. Sea otter diet and foraging behavior were studied at Amchitka from August 1992 to March 1994 and the data compared with similar information obtained during several earlier periods. In contrast with dietary patterns in the 1960s and 1970s, when the sea otter population was at or near equilibrium density and kelp-forest fishes were the dietary mainstay, these fishes were rarely eaten in the 1990s. Benthic invertebrates, particularly sea urchins, dominated the otter's diet from early summer to midwinter, then decreased in importance during late winter and spring when numerous Pacific smooth lumpsuckers (a large and easily captured oceanic fish) were eaten. The occurrence of spawning lumpsuckers in coastal waters apparently is episodic on a scale of years to decades. The otters' recent dietary shift away from kelp-forest fishes is probably a response to the increased availability of lumpsuckers and sea urchins (both high-preference prey). Additionally, increased urchin densities have reduced kelp beds, thus further reducing the availability of kelp-forest fishes. Our findings suggest that dietary patterns reflect changes in population status and show how an ecosystem normally under top-down control and limited by coastal zone processes can be significantly perturbed by exogenous events.

  5. Establishment of woody riparian vegetation in relation to annual patterns of streamflow, Bill Williams River, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shafroth, P.B.; Auble, G.T.; Stromberg, J.C.; Patten, D.T.

    1998-01-01

    Previous studies have revealed the close coupling of components of annual streamflow hydrographs and the germination and establishment of Populus species. Key hydrograph components include the timing and magnitude of flood peaks, the rate of decline of the recession limb, and the magnitude of base flows. In this paper, we retrospectively examine establishment of four woody riparian species along the Bill Williams River, Arizona, USA, in the context of annual patterns of streamflow for the years 1993-1995. The four species examined were the native Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, and Baccharis salicifolia and the exotic Tamarix ramosissima. We modeled locations suitable for germination of each species along eight study transects by combining historic discharge data, calculated stage-discharge relationships, and seed-dispersal timing observations. This germination model was a highly significant predictor of seedling establishment. Where germination was predicted to occur, we compared values of several environmental variables in quadrats where we observed successful establishment with quadrats where establishment was unsuccessful. The basal area of mature woody vegetation, the maximum annual depth to ground water, and the maximum rate of water-table decline were the variables that best discriminated between quadrats with and without seedlings. The results of this study suggest that the basic components of models that relate establishment of Populus spp. to annual patterns of streamflow may also be applicable to other woody riparian species. Reach-to-reach variation in stage-discharge relationships can influence model parameters, however, and should be considered if results such as ours are to be used in efforts to prescribe reservoir releases to promote establishment of native riparian vegetation.

  6. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

    PubMed Central

    Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

  7. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows.

    PubMed

    Ruiz Etcheverry, L A; Saraceno, M; Piola, A R; Strub, P T

    2016-04-01

    We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf-break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio-temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S.

  8. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz Etcheverry, L. A.; Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

    2016-04-01

    We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf-break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio-temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S.

  9. The effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on crop-related green and blue water footprints and inter-regional virtual water trade: A study for China (1978-2008).

    PubMed

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M; Hoekstra, Arjen Y

    2016-05-01

    Previous studies into the relation between human consumption and indirect water resources use have unveiled the remote connections in virtual water (VW) trade networks, which show how communities externalize their water footprint (WF) to places far beyond their own region, but little has been done to understand variability in time. This study quantifies the effect of inter-annual variability of consumption, production, trade and climate on WF and VW trade, using China over the period 1978-2008 as a case study. Evapotranspiration, crop yields and green and blue WFs of crops are estimated at a 5 × 5 arc-minute resolution for 22 crops, for each year in the study period, thus accounting for climate variability. The results show that crop yield improvements during the study period helped to reduce the national average WF of crop consumption per capita by 23%, with a decreasing contribution to the total from cereals and increasing contribution from oil crops. The total consumptive WFs of national crop consumption and crop production, however, grew by 6% and 7%, respectively. By 2008, 28% of total water consumption in crop fields in China served the production of crops for export to other regions and, on average, 35% of the crop-related WF of a Chinese consumer was outside its own province. Historically, the net VW within China was from the water-rich South to the water-scarce North, but intensifying North-to-South crop trade reversed the net VW flow since 2000, which amounted 6% of North's WF of crop production in 2008. South China thus gradually became dependent on food supply from the water-scarce North. Besides, during the whole study period, China's domestic inter-regional VW flows went dominantly from areas with a relatively large to areas with a relatively small blue WF per unit of crop, which in 2008 resulted in a trade-related blue water loss of 7% of the national total blue WF of crop production. The case of China shows that domestic trade, as governed by

  10. Community assembly in Nothobranchius annual fishes: Nested patterns, environmental niche and biogeographic history.

    PubMed

    Reichard, Martin; Janáč, Michal; Polačik, Matej; Blažek, Radim; Vrtílek, Milan

    2017-04-01

    The assembly of local communities from regional species pools is shaped by historical aspects of distribution, environmental conditions, and biotic interactions. We studied local community assembly patterns in African annual killifishes of the genus Nothobranchius (Cyprinodontiformes), investigating data from 168 communities across the entire range of regionally co-existing species. Nothobranchius are small fishes associated with annually desiccating pools. We detected a nested pattern of local communities in one region (Southern Mozambique, with Nothobranchius furzeri as the core and dominant species), but no nestedness was found in the second region (Central Mozambique, with Nothobranchius orthonotus being the dominant species). A checkerboard pattern of local Nothobranchius community assembly was demonstrated in both regions. Multivariate environmental niche modeling revealed moderate differences in environmental niche occupancy between three monophyletic clades that largely co-occurred geographically and greater differences between strictly allopatric species within the clades. Most variation among species was observed along an altitudinal gradient; N. furzeri and Nothobranchius kadleci were absent from coastal plains, Nothobranchius pienaari, Nothobranchius rachovii, and Nothobranchius krysanovi were associated with lower altitude and N. orthonotus was intermediate and geographically most widespread species. We discuss implications for ecological and evolutionary research in this taxon.

  11. Influence of seasonal and inter-annual hydro-meteorological variability on surface water fecal coliform concentration under varying land-use composition.

    PubMed

    St Laurent, Jacques; Mazumder, Asit

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying the influence of hydro-meteorological variability on surface source water fecal contamination is critical to the maintenance of safe drinking water. Historically, this has not been possible due to the scarcity of data on fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). We examined the relationship between hydro-meteorological variability and the most commonly measured FIB, fecal coliform (FC), concentration for 43 surface water sites within the hydro-climatologically complex region of British Columbia. The strength of relationship was highly variable among sites, but tended to be stronger in catchments with nival (snowmelt-dominated) hydro-meteorological regimes and greater land-use impacts. We observed positive relationships between inter-annual FC concentration and hydro-meteorological variability for around 50% of the 19 sites examined. These sites are likely to experience increased fecal contamination due to the projected intensification of the hydrological cycle. Seasonal FC concentration variability appeared to be driven by snowmelt and rainfall-induced runoff for around 30% of the 43 sites examined. Earlier snowmelt in nival catchments may advance the timing of peak contamination, and the projected decrease in annual snow-to-precipitation ratio is likely to increase fecal contamination levels during summer, fall, and winter among these sites. Safeguarding drinking water quality in the face of such impacts will require increased monitoring of FIB and waterborne pathogens, especially during periods of high hydro-meteorological variability. This data can then be used to develop predictive models, inform source water protection measures, and improve drinking water treatment.

  12. Identifying Spatial Patterns and Processes Affecting Mean Annual Runoff in the Alzette River Basin, Luxembourg

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smettem, Keith; Klaus, Julian; Dickson, Sam; Pfister, Laurent; Giustarini, Laura

    2017-04-01

    runoff per unit rainfall) in the south west of Luxembourg. We conclude that climate, rather than land use controls the regional pattern of mean annual runoff from Luxembourgish catchments and that any reduction in rainfall could have a positive feedback on runoff if accompanied by a decrease in annual mean storm depth.

  13. What drives inter-annual variations in C flux and balance in a tropical rainforest of French Guiana?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilos, Maricar; Herault, Bruno; Burban, Benoit; Wagner, Fabien; Bonal, Damien

    2017-04-01

    Amazon rainforests, a major contributor to the global carbon sink, is not on steady state and information about the long-term impact of climate change on carbon fluxes between this ecosystem and the atmosphere and the resulting balance is lacking. A thorough understanding of the forest responses to climate is indeed important to improve ecosystem process models and to reduce uncertainties in the contemporary carbon balance calculations for tropical forests. To address these issues, we examined the interannual variations in gross primary photosynthesis (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RE) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana and identified key climatic drivers influencing such changes across a 12-year long period (2004 - 2015). The study period was characterized by strong differences in climate conditions, particularly in the intensity of the long dry and the long wet seasons. Fluctuations in annual average GPP vary from 9.27 ± 1.68 g C m?2 d?1 to 11.13 ± 2.21 g C m?2 d?1. RE is more varied than GPP having a difference of 2.53 C m?2 d?1 between the minimum (8.28 ± 0.85 g C m?2 d?1) and maximum (10.80 ± 1.67 g C m?2 d?1). GPP was always higher than RE annually and the forest remained a carbon sink in an annual basis although NEE has huge interannual variability, from -0.18 ± 1.64 g C m?2 d?1 to -1.62 ± 1.65 g C m?2 d?1. Annually, the combination of global radiation (Rg), relative extractable water (REW) and soil temperature (Ts) explained 51% of the variations of GPP, 30% for RE, and 39% for NEE, but global radiation was always the best predictor variable. Seasonally, Rg was the major controlling factor for GPP (r2 = 0.58; P <0.0001), RE (r2 = 0.08; P<0.0001) and NEE (r2 = 0.48; P<0.0001) during the wet season. During the dry season, variations in C fluxes and balance were poorly explained by climate factors. Yet, relative extractable water was the key driver of variations in RE (r2 = 0.16; P < 0.0001) and NEE (r2 = 0.10; P

  14. Soil wetting patterns of vegetation and inter-patches following single and repeated wildfires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Óscar; Malvar, Maruxa; van den Elsen, Erik; Hosseini, mohammadreza; Coelho, Celeste; Ritsema, Coen; Bautista, Susana; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Cerdà, Artemi

    2015-04-01

    Although wildfires spread in Mediterranean areas are considered a natural processes, the expected increase in fire frequency has raised concerns about the systems' future resilience (Pausas, 2004). Besides more frequent, future wildfires can become more severe and produce more pronounced changes in topsoil properties, vegetation and litter (Cerdá and Mataix-Solera, 2009). To deal with challenges, the EU funded CASCADE and RECARE projects, which are currently assessing soil threats and tipping-points for land degradation in a climatic gradient across Europe. The present research was developed in Portugal and aims to find relationships between fire frequency and soil wetting patterns following single versus repeated wildfires. In September 2012, a wildfire burnt 3000 ha. of Pine stands and shrub vegetation in the vicinity of Viseu district, North-Central Portugal. Analyses according to the available burnt-area maps (1975-2012), discriminated areas that has been burned 1x (called SD) and 4x (called D) times. In order to evaluate the post-fire soil surface moisture patterns, 6 slopes (3 in SD and 3 in D) were selected and a balanced experimental design with 72 soil moisture sensors (EC5 and GS3, from Decagon devices) was implemented under shrubs (n=18) and on bare (n=18) soil environments, at 2.5 cm and 7.5 cm soil depth each. The spatio-temporal occurrence of soil water repellence (SWR) (Keizer et al., 2008; Prats et al., 2013; Santos et al., 2014) was monthly assessed through the MED test at 2.5 cm and 7.5 cm soil depth into 5 sampling points located at regular distances along a transect running from the top to bottom of a selected slope in SD and D. Automatic and totalize rainfall gauges were also installed across the study area. Preliminary results showed that soil wetting patterns and SWR occurrence differs between SD, D sites and, between soil environment (under shrubs and on bare soil areas). SWR were more pronounced on the SD than in D, affecting soil wetting

  15. Inter- and intra-annual variation of water footprint of crops and blue water scarcity in the Yellow River basin (1961-2009)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuo, La; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-01-01

    The Yellow River Basin (YRB), the second largest river basin of China, has experienced a booming agriculture over the past decades. But data on variability of and trends in water consumption, pollution and scarcity in the YRB are lacking. We estimate, for the first time, the inter- and intra-annual water footprint (WF) of crop production in the YRB for the period 1961-2009 and the variation of monthly scarcity of blue water (ground and surface water) for 1978-2009, by comparing the blue WF of agriculture, industry and households in the basin to the maximum sustainable level. Results show that the average overall green (from rainfall) and blue (from irrigation) WFs of crops in the period 2001-2009 were 14% and 37% larger, respectively, than in the period 1961-1970. The annual nitrogen- and phosphorus-related grey WFs (water required to assimilate pollutants) of crop production grew by factors of 24 and 36, respectively. The green-blue WF per ton of crop reduced significantly due to improved crop yields, while the grey WF increased because of the growing application of fertilizers. The ratio of blue to green WF increased during the study period resulting from the expansion of irrigated agriculture. In the period 1978-2009, the annual total blue WFs related to agriculture, industry and households varied between 19% and 52% of the basin's natural runoff. The blue WF in the YRB generally peaks around May-July, two months earlier than natural peak runoff. On average, the YRB faced moderate to severe blue water scarcity during seven months (January-July) per year. Even in the wettest month in a wet year, about half of the area of the YRB still suffered severe blue water scarcity, especially in the basin's northern part.

  16. Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-11-01

    Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

  17. Contemporary inter-hospital transfer patterns for the management of acute coronary syndrome patients: findings from the EPICOR study.

    PubMed

    Sinnaeve, Peter R; Zeymer, Uwe; Bueno, Héctor; Danchin, Nicolas; Medina, Jesús; Sánchez-Covisa, Joaquín; Licour, Muriel; Annemans, Lieven; Jukema, J Wouter; Pocock, Stuart; Storey, Robert F; Van de Werf, Frans

    2015-06-01

    The EPICOR observational study was designed to describe antithrombotic strategies in a broad acute coronary syndrome (ACS) population; it also included information on inter-hospital transfers and institutional resources. EPICOR enrolled 10,568 consecutively discharged patients with ST-elevation (STE) or non-STE (NSTE) ACS in 555 centres in 20 countries across Europe and Latin America. Patients were categorized as non-transferred, transferred in from another hospital and then discharged, or transferred out to a second hospital but discharged from their initial hospital after transfer back. Two-thirds of ACS patients were non-transferred, of which only 14% were hospitalized at a centre without a catheterization laboratory, and one-third were transferred in or transferred out. Almost all transferred out patients were transferred out to a hospital with catheterization facilities, most often for primary/urgent/rescue (78%) or planned catheterization (18%) in STE myocardial infarction (STEMI), and primary/urgent/rescue (44%) or planned (43%) catheterization in NSTE-ACS. Transferred in patients were more likely to have a STEMI (60%) than non-transferred (44%) and transferred out patients (36%). In STEMI patients, time from symptom onset to catheterization was shorter in non-transferred patients (median 3.5 h vs. 5.9 h for transferred in and 6.3 h for transferred out). In NSTE-ACS, cardiac markers were positive in 66% of non-transferred patients versus 78% and 82% in transferred in and transferred out, respectively. The lack of on-site 24/7 facilities or the availability of more advanced care are frequent reasons for inter-hospital transfer in ACS. Further follow-up of these patients will help to determine whether these practice patterns affect outcome. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  18. Inter-nesting habitat-use patterns of loggerhead sea turtles: Enhancing satellite tracking with benthic mapping

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hart, Kristen M.; Zawada, David G.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Lidz, Barbara H.

    2010-01-01

    The loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta faces declining nest numbers and bycatches from commercial longline fishing in the southeastern USA. Understanding spatial and temporal habitat-use patterns of these turtles, especially reproductive females in the neritic zone, is critical for guiding management decisions. To assess marine turtle habitat use within the Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO), we used satellite telemetry to identify core-use areas for 7 loggerhead females inter-nesting and tracked in 2008 and 2009. This effort represents the first tracking of DRTO loggerheads, a distinct subpopulation that is 1 of 7 recently proposed for upgrading from threatened to endangered under the US Endangered Species Act. We also used a rapid, high-resolution, digital imaging system to map benthic habitats in turtle core-use areas (i.e. 50% kernel density zones). Loggerhead females were seasonal residents of DRTO for 19 to 51 d, and individual inter-nesting habitats were located within 1.9 km (2008) and 2.3 km (2009) of the nesting beach and tagging site. The core area common to all tagged turtles was 4.2 km2 in size and spanned a depth range of 7.6 to 11.5 m. Mapping results revealed the diversity and distributions of benthic cover available in the core-use area, as well as a heavily used corridor to/from the nesting beach. This combined tagging-mapping approach shows potential for planning and improving the effectiveness of marine protected areas and for developing spatially explicit conservation plans.

  19. The dynamics of avian influenza in Lesser Snow Geese: implications for annual and migratory infection patterns.

    PubMed

    Samuel, Michael D; Hall, Jeffrey S; Brown, Justin D; Goldberg, Diana R; Ip, Hon; Baranyuk, Vasily V

    2015-10-01

    Wild water birds are the natural reservoir for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, our ability to investigate the epizootiology of AIV in these migratory populations is challenging and, despite intensive worldwide surveillance, remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis in Pacific Flyway Lesser Snow Geese, Chen caerulescens, to investigate AIV serology and infection patterns. We collected nearly 3000 sera samples from Snow Geese at two breeding colonies in Russia and Canada during 1993-1996 and swab samples from >4000 birds at wintering and migration areas in the United States during 2006-2011. We found seroprevalence and annual seroconversion varied considerably among years. Seroconversion and infection rates also differed between Snow Goose breeding colonies and wintering areas, suggesting that AIV exposure in this gregarious waterfowl species is likely occurring during several phases (migration, wintering, and potentially breeding areas) of the annual cycle. We estimated AIV antibody persistence was longer (14 months) in female geese compared to males (6 months). This relatively long period of AIV antibody persistence suggests that subtype-specific serology may be an effective tool for detection of exposure to subtypes associated with highly pathogenic AIV. Our study provides further evidence of high seroprevalence in Arctic goose populations, and estimates of annual AIV seroconversion and antibody persistence for North American waterfowl. We suggest future AIV studies include serology to help elucidate the epizootiological dynamics of AIV in wild bird populations.

  20. Satellite-measured seasonal and inter-annual chlorophyll variability in the Northeast Pacific and Coastal Gulf of Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brickley, Peter J.; Thomas, Andrew C.

    2004-01-01

    Four years (September 1997-August 2001) of SeaWiFS ocean-color satellite data are used to present the first synoptic quantification of chlorophyll variability on seasonal and interannual timescales over the Northeast Pacific and Coastal Gulf of Alaska. Low light levels and/or cloud during November-January prevent examination of winter patterns. The climatological seasonal patterns show shelf-intensified chlorophyll (by a factor of 3 or more) around the entire basin, extending up to 300 m beyond the shelfbreak along the eastern margin and south of Kodiak Island, with peaks in May and again but weaker in August-September. Over the central basin, concentrations are minimum in February (<0.4 mg m -3), have no spring peak, and increase steadily over the season to a maximum (˜0.7 mg m -3) in September-October. The dominant mode (27% of total variance) of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of the monthly image time series shows interannual variability is strongest during the spring peak around the periphery of the basin with minima in 1998 and 2001. The second and third modes (8% and 7%) capture additional spring interannual variability in patterns strongly related to the shelfbreak west of Kayak Island (144°W) and in more diffuse mesoscale patterns in the eastern GOA. Cross-shelf chlorophyll variability (0-400 km offshore) at three locations contrasts strong seasonality and spring bloom development offshore, over the shelf break, in the northern GOA (off Seward) with weaker seasonality over the shelf off the Queen Charlotte Islands. The shelf between Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island consistently develops a spring along-shelf gradient in chlorophyll, maximum over the western end of the shelf. Comparisons to wind and surface temperature anomalies suggest that interannual differences in the strength of the spring bloom are more strongly related to wind forcing the previous winter than temperature anomalies associated with the 1997/98 El Nino.

  1. Inter-annual associations between precipitation and human incidence of West Nile virus in the United States.

    PubMed

    Landesman, William J; Allan, Brian F; Langerhans, R Brian; Knight, Tiffany M; Chase, Jonathan M

    2007-01-01

    Higher-than-average precipitation levels may cause mosquito outbreaks if mosquitoes are limited by larval habitat availability. Alternatively, recent ecological research suggests that drought events can lead to mosquito outbreaks the following year due to changes in food web structure. By either mechanism, these mosquito outbreaks may contribute to human cases of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the recent United States outbreak. Using countylevel precipitation and human WNV incidence data (2002-2004), we tested the impacts of above and below-average rainfall on the prevalence of WNV in human populations both within and between years. We found evidence that human WNV incidence is most strongly associated with annual precipitation from the preceding year. Human outbreaks of WNV are preceded by above-average rainfall in the eastern United States and below-average rainfall in the western United States in the prior year. While no direct mechanism may be determined from this study, we hypothesize that differences in the ecology of mosquito vectors may be responsible for the opposite relationships between precipitation and WNV outbreaks between the eastern and western United States.

  2. Unexpected extreme events drive the inter-annual variabilty in carbon exchange at the Pine forest in Netherlands.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sethi, Sanjna; Moors, Eddy; Jamir, Chubamenla

    2017-04-01

    The carbon exchange between vegetation and the atmosphere tends to vary on an annual basis. This change is a continuous process its trend emerging over a period of years can be analysed. In any such trend over a prolonged period, some years stand out more than the others on account of extreme events. Explaining deviations from the expected average emissions may help to understand the drivers behind these interannual deviations. Such noticeable deviations in trend maybe on account of extreme events and need to be analysed in overall context of the ecosystem. This research's focus is to identify the main drivers responsible for the deviations, and how extreme events impact the variability over a prolonged period of time. The hypothesis being that extreme events are driving these deviations. Carbon flux data done for multiple years (1997-2015) for a site at the Loobos Pine Forest is used and compared with an ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) to understand if the deviation of measured data from the simulated data is on account of extreme events on a monthly and daily basis. A Principal Component Analysis is performed on the identified deviations between measured and simulated carbon exchange to pin point the main cause behind their occurrence.​

  3. Inter- and intra-annual variability of fluvial sediment transport in the proglacial river Riffler Bach (Weißseeferner, Ötztal Alps, Tyrol)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baewert, Henning; Weber, Martin; Morche, David

    2015-04-01

    The hydrology of a proglacial river is strongly affected by glacier melting. Due to glacier retreat the effects of snow melt and rain storms will become more important in future decades. Additionally, the development of periglacial landscapes will play a more important role in the hydrology of proglacial rivers. The importance of paraglacial sediment sources in sediment budgets of glacier forefields is increasing, while the role of glacial erosion is declining. In two consecutive ablation seasons the fluvial sediment transport of the river Riffler Bach in the Kaunertal (Tyrol/Austria) was quantified. The catchment area of this station is 20 km² with an altitudinal range from 1929 m to 3518 m above msl. The "Weißseeferner" glacier (2.34 km² in 2012) is the greatest of the remaining glaciers. An automatic water sampler (AWS 2002) and a probe for water level were installed were installed at the outlet of the catchment. In order to calculate annual stage-discharge-relations, discharge (Q) was repeatedly measured with current meters. Concurrent to the discharge measurements bed load was collected using a portable Helley-Smith sampler. Bed load (BL) samples were weighted and sieved in the laboratory to gain annual bed load rating curves and grain size distributions. In 2012, 154 water samples were sampled during 7 periods and subsequently filtered to quantify suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). A Q-SSC-relation was calculated for every period due to the high variability in suspended sediment transport. In addition, the grain size distribution of the filtered material was determined by laser diffraction analysis. In 2013, the same procedure was performed for 232 water samples which were collected during 9 periods. Meteorological data were logged at the climate station "Weißsee", which is located in the centre of the study area. First results show a high variability of discharge and solid sediment transport both at the inter-annual as well as at the intra-annual

  4. Diversity in plant hydraulic traits explains seasonal and inter-annual variations of vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests.

    PubMed

    Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Powers, Jennifer S; Becknell, Justin M; Guan, Kaiyu

    2016-10-01

    We assessed whether diversity in plant hydraulic traits can explain the observed diversity in plant responses to water stress in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) was updated with a trait-driven mechanistic plant hydraulic module, as well as novel drought-phenology and plant water stress schemes. Four plant functional types were parameterized on the basis of meta-analysis of plant hydraulic traits. Simulations from both the original and the updated ED2 were evaluated against 5 yr of field data from a Costa Rican SDTF site and remote-sensing data over Central America. The updated model generated realistic plant hydraulic dynamics, such as leaf water potential and stem sap flow. Compared with the original ED2, predictions from our novel trait-driven model matched better with observed growth, phenology and their variations among functional groups. Most notably, the original ED2 produced unrealistically small leaf area index (LAI) and underestimated cumulative leaf litter. Both of these biases were corrected by the updated model. The updated model was also better able to simulate spatial patterns of LAI dynamics in Central America. Plant hydraulic traits are intercorrelated in SDTFs. Mechanistic incorporation of plant hydraulic traits is necessary for the simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation dynamics in SDTFs in vegetation models. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  5. Parental Choice of Schooling, Learning Processes and Inter-Ethnic Friendship Patterns: The Case of Malay Students in Chinese Primary Schools in Malaysia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sua, Tan Yao; Ngah, Kamarudin; Darit, Sezali Md.

    2013-01-01

    This study surveys 200 Malay students enrolled in three Chinese primary schools in relation to three issues, i.e., parental choice of schooling, learning processes and inter-ethnic friendship patterns. The three issues are explored through a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methodologies. Parental expectations for their…

  6. Parental Choice of Schooling, Learning Processes and Inter-Ethnic Friendship Patterns: The Case of Malay Students in Chinese Primary Schools in Malaysia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sua, Tan Yao; Ngah, Kamarudin; Darit, Sezali Md.

    2013-01-01

    This study surveys 200 Malay students enrolled in three Chinese primary schools in relation to three issues, i.e., parental choice of schooling, learning processes and inter-ethnic friendship patterns. The three issues are explored through a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methodologies. Parental expectations for their…

  7. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing

  8. Biogeochemical variations at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, from weekly to inter-annual time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, S. E.; Jiang, Z.-P.; Turk, D.; Lampitt, R. S.; Frigstad, H.; Ostle, C.

    2014-08-01

    We present high-resolution autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide partial pressure p(CO2) taken in situ at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained observatory (PAP-SO) in the Northeast Atlantic (49° N, 16.5° W; water depth of 4850 m) for the period 2010 to 2012. Measurements of p(CO2) made at 30 m depth on a sensor frame are compared with other autonomous biogeochemical measurements at that depth (including chlorophyll a-fluorescence and nitrate concentration data) to analyse weekly to seasonal controls on p(CO2) flux in the inter-gyre region of the North Atlantic. Comparisons are also made with in situ regional time-series data from a ship of opportunity and mixed layer depth (MLD) measurements from profiling Argo floats. There is a persistent under saturation of CO2 in surface waters throughout the year which gives rise to a perennial CO2 sink. Comparison with an earlier dataset collected at the site (2003 to 2005) confirms seasonal and inter-annual changes in surface seawater chemistry. There is year-to-year variability in the timing of stratification and deep winter mixing. The 2010 to 2012 period shows an overall increase in p(CO2) values when compared to the 2003-2005 period. This is despite similar surface temperature, wind speed and MLD measurements between the two periods of time. Future work should incorporate daily CO2 flux measurements made using CO2 sensors at 1 m depth and the in situ wind speed data now available from the UK Met Office Buoy.

  9. Biogeochemical variations at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain Sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, from weekly to inter-annual time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, Susan; Lampitt, Richard

    2015-04-01

    We present high-resolution autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide partial pres- sure p(CO2) taken in situ at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained observatory (PAP- SO) in the northeast Atlantic (49N, 16.5W; water depth of 4850 m) for the period 2010 to 2012. Measurements of p(CO2) made at 30 m depth on a sensor frame are compared with other autonomous biogeochemical measurements at that depth (including chlorophyll a-fluorescence and nitrate concentration data) to analyse weekly to seasonal controls on p(CO2) flux in the inter-gyre region of the North Atlantic. Comparisons are also made with in situ regional time-series data from a ship of opportunity and mixed layer depth (MLD) measurements from profiling Argo floats. There is a persistent under saturation of CO2 in surface waters throughout the year which gives rise to a perennial CO2 sink. Comparison with an earlier dataset collected at the site (2003 to 2005) confirms seasonal and inter-annual changes in surface seawater chemistry. There is year-to-year variability in the timing of deep winter mixing and the intensity of the spring bloom. The 2010-2012 period shows an overall increase in p(CO2) values when compared to the 2003-2005 period as would be expected from increases due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The surface temperature, wind speed and MLD measurements are similar for both periods of time. Future work should incorporate daily CO2 flux measurements made using CO2 sensors at 1 m depth and the in situ wind speed data now available from the UK Met Office Buoy.

  10. Biogeochemical variations at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained Observatory in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, from weekly to inter-annual timescales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, S. E.; Jiang, Z.-P.; Turk, D.; Lampitt, R. S.; Frigstad, H.; Ostle, C.; Schuster, U.

    2015-02-01

    We present high-resolution autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide partial pressure p(CO2) taken in situ at the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained Observatory (PAP-SO) in the northeast Atlantic (49° N, 16.5° W; water depth of 4850 m) for the period 2010-2012. Measurements of p(CO2) made at 30 m depth on a sensor frame are compared with other autonomous biogeochemical measurements at that depth (including chlorophyll a fluorescence and nitrate concentration data) to analyse weekly to seasonal controls on p(CO2) flux in the inter-gyre region of the North Atlantic. Comparisons are also made with in situ regional time series data from a ship of opportunity and mixed layer depth (MLD) measurements from profiling Argo floats. There is a persistent under-saturation of CO2 in surface waters throughout the year which gives rise to a perennial CO2 sink. Comparison with an earlier data set collected at the site (2003-2005) confirms seasonal and inter-annual changes in surface seawater chemistry. There is year-to-year variability in the timing of deep winter mixing and the intensity of the spring bloom. The 2010-2012 period shows an overall increase in p(CO2) values when compared to the 2003-2005 period as would be expected from increases due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The surface temperature, wind speed and MLD measurements are similar for both periods of time. Future work should incorporate daily CO2 flux measurements made using CO2 sensors at 1 m depth and the in situ wind speed data now available from the UK Met Office Buoy.

  11. Inter-annual Tropospheric Aerosol Variability in Late Twentieth Century and its Impact on Tropical Atlantic and West African Climate by Direct and Semi-direct Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Katherine J; Hack, James J; Truesdale, John; Mahajan, Salil; Lamarque, J-F

    2012-01-01

    A new high-resolution (0.9$^{\\circ}$x1.25$^{\\circ}$ in the horizontal) global tropospheric aerosol dataset with monthly resolution is generated using the finite-volume configuration of Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) coupled to a bulk aerosol model and forced with recent estimates of surface emissions for the latter part of twentieth century. The surface emissions dataset is constructed from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) decadal-resolution surface emissions dataset to include REanalysis of TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) wildfire monthly emissions dataset. Experiments forced with the new tropospheric aerosol dataset and conducted using the spectral configuration of CAM4 with a T85 truncation (1.4$^{\\circ}$x1.4$^{\\circ}$) with prescribed twentieth century observed sea surface temperature, sea-ice and greenhouse gases reveal that variations in tropospheric aerosol levels can induce significant regional climate variability on the inter-annual timescales. Regression analyses over tropical Atlantic and Africa reveal that increasing dust aerosols can cool the North African landmass and shift convection southwards from West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea in the spring season in the simulations. Further, we find that increasing carbonaceous aerosols emanating from the southwestern African savannas can cool the region significantly and increase the marine stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeast tropical Atlantic ocean by aerosol-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere above the low clouds. Experiments conducted with CAM4 coupled to a slab ocean model suggest that present day aerosols can shift the ITCZ southwards over the tropical Atlantic and can reduce the ocean mixed layer temperature beneath the increased marine stratocumulus clouds in the southeastern tropical Atlantic.

  12. Evaluating the effects of China's pollution controls on inter-annual trends and uncertainties of atmospheric mercury emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Zhong, H.; Zhang, J.; Nielsen, C. P.

    2015-04-01

    China's anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric mercury (Hg) are effectively constrained by national air pollution control and energy efficiency policies. In this study, improved methods, based on available data from domestic field measurements, are developed to quantify the benefits of Hg abatement by various emission control measures. Those measures include increased use of (1) flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and selective catalyst reduction (SCR) systems in power generation; (2) precalciner kilns with fabric filters (FF) in cement production; (3) mechanized coking ovens with electrostatic precipitators (ESP) in iron and steel production; and (4) advanced production technologies in nonferrous metal smelting. Investigation reveals declining trends in emission factors for each of these sources, which together drive a much slower growth of total Hg emissions than the growth of China's energy consumption and economy, from 679 metric tons (t) in 2005 to 750 t in 2012. In particular, estimated emissions from the above-mentioned four source types declined 3% from 2005 to 2012, which can be attributed to expanded deployment of technologies with higher energy efficiencies and air pollutant removal rates. Emissions from other anthropogenic sources are estimated to increase by 22% during the period. The species shares of total Hg emissions have been stable in recent years, with mass fractions of around 55, 39, and 6% for gaseous elemental Hg (Hg0), reactive gaseous mercury (Hg2+), and particle-bound mercury (Hgp), respectively. The higher estimate of total Hg emissions than previous inventories is supported by limited simulation of atmospheric chemistry and transport. With improved implementation of emission controls and energy saving, a 23% reduction in annual Hg emissions from 2012 to 2030, to below 600 t, is expected at the most. While growth in Hg emissions has been gradually constrained, uncertainties quantified by Monte Carlo simulation for recent years have increased

  13. Scavengers on the move: behavioural changes in foraging search patterns during the annual cycle.

    PubMed

    López-López, Pascual; Benavent-Corai, José; García-Ripollés, Clara; Urios, Vicente

    2013-01-01

    Optimal foraging theory predicts that animals will tend to maximize foraging success by optimizing search strategies. However, how organisms detect sparsely distributed food resources remains an open question. When targets are sparse and unpredictably distributed, a Lévy strategy should maximize foraging success. By contrast, when resources are abundant and regularly distributed, simple brownian random movement should be sufficient. Although very different groups of organisms exhibit Lévy motion, the shift from a Lévy to a brownian search strategy has been suggested to depend on internal and external factors such as sex, prey density, or environmental context. However, animal response at the individual level has received little attention. We used GPS satellite-telemetry data of Egyptian vultures Neophron percnopterus to examine movement patterns at the individual level during consecutive years, with particular interest in the variations in foraging search patterns during the different periods of the annual cycle (i.e. breeding vs. non-breeding). Our results show that vultures followed a brownian search strategy in their wintering sojourn in Africa, whereas they exhibited a more complex foraging search pattern at breeding grounds in Europe, including Lévy motion. Interestingly, our results showed that individuals shifted between search strategies within the same period of the annual cycle in successive years. Results could be primarily explained by the different environmental conditions in which foraging activities occur. However, the high degree of behavioural flexibility exhibited during the breeding period in contrast to the non-breeding period is challenging, suggesting that not only environmental conditions explain individuals' behaviour but also individuals' cognitive abilities (e.g., memory effects) could play an important role. Our results support the growing awareness about the role of behavioural flexibility at the individual level, adding new

  14. Numerical simulation of inter-annual variations in the properties of the upper mixed layer in the Black Sea over the last 34 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapiro, Georgy I.; Wobus, Fred; Zatsepin, Andrei G.; Akivis, Tatiana M.; Zanacchi, Marcus; Stanichny, Sergey

    2014-05-01

    The Black Sea is a nearly land-locked basin where a combination of salt and heat budgets results in a unique thermohaline water mass structure. An important feature of the Black Sea is that oxygen is dissolved and rich sea life made possible only in the upper water levels. This is due to a strong pycnocline which cannot be mixed even by strong winds or winter convection (Shapiro, 2008). The upper mixed layer (UML) with a nearly uniform temperature profile and a very sharp seasonal thermocline at its lower boundary develops during the summer season (Sur & Ilyin, 1997). The deepening of the UML has an important effect on the supply of nutrients into the euphotic upper layer from the underlying nutrient-rich water mass. The temperature of the UML at any given location is dependent on the surface heat flux, horizontal advection of heat, the depth and the rate of deepening of the UML. In this study we use a 3D ocean circulation model, NEMO-SHELF (O'Dea et al, 2012) to simulate the parameters of the UML in the Black Sea over the last 34 years. The model has horizontal resolution of 1/12×1/16 degrees and 33 layers in the vertical. The vertical discretization uses a hybrid enveloped s-z grid developed in Shapiro et al. (2012). The model is spun up from climatology (Suvorov et al., 2004); it is forced by the Drakkar Forcing Set v5.2 (Brodeau et al., 2010, Meinvielle et al., 2013) and river discharges from 8 major rivers are included. For each year the model is run from 1st January and the data for the period April to October are used for analysis. The sea surface temperature produced by the model is compared with satellite data ( Modis-Aqua, 2013) to show a good agreement. The model simulations are validated against in-situ observations (BSERP-3, 2004; Piotukh et al., 2011). The analysis is performed for the deep basin where the depth of the sea is greater than 1000m. It clearly shows the inter-annual variations of both the SST and the depth of UML. The depth of UML is

  15. Mapping inter-annual dynamics of open surface water bodies in Oklahoma from Landsat images in 1984 to 2015 at 30-m spatial resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Z.; Xiao, X.; Menarguez, M.; Dong, J.; Qin, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Open surface water bodies are important water resource for public supply, irrigation, livestock, and wildlife in Oklahoma. The inter-annual variation of Oklahoma water bodies directly affect the water availability for public supply, irrigation and cattle industry. In this study, tens of thousands of Landsat TM/ETM+ images from 1984 to 2015 were used to track the dynamics of open surface water bodies. Both water-related spectral indices and vegetation indices were used to map water bodies for individual images. The resultant maps show that Oklahoma year-long open surface water bodies varied significantly over the last 32 years, with an average annual water body area equals to 2300 km2, accounting for 1.27 % of the Oklahoma state area (181,037 km2). 4.3 million year-long water body pixels were detected in the 32-year accumulated water frequency map, corresponding to 3100 km2. Only 45% ( 1400 km2) of the those pixels had water throughout the 32 years, while the rest 55% pixels had a dry-up period. The smaller water bodies have a higher risk to dry up and a lower probability to have water throughout the years. Drought years could significantly decrease the number of small water bodies and shrink the area of large water bodies, while pluvial years could create large number of small seasonal water bodies. The significant influencing factors of current year water bodies include the precipitation and temperature of current year and the water body condition of the previous year. This water body dynamics study could be used to support water resource management, crop and livestock production, and biodiversity conservation in Oklahoma.

  16. The inter-annual variability of the Yellow Sea Warm Current surface axis and its influencing factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Dehai; Bao, Xianwen; Wang, Xiaohua; Xu, Lingling; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Dexing

    2009-09-01

    Based on the Pathfinder sea surface temperature (PFSST), the surface axis and its pattern of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) are discussed. A structure of double-warm-tongue is found in February and it varies in different years. Two indexes are calculated to represent the westward shift (WSI) and northward extension (NEI) of the warm water in the Yellow Sea (YS). Wavelet analysis illustrates that the WSI and NEI have prominent periods of 3-6 years and 3-4 years, respectively. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition is applied to the winter wind stress curl and the Kuroshio Current (KC) transport, which are believed to play important roles in forcing the variability of the YSWC surface axis. Statistics shows that the WSI is significantly related with the second EOF mode of the wind stress curl in February, which may force the YSWC surface axis moving westward and maintaining the double warm tongues because of its opposite curl in the YSWC domain. The first EOF mode of wind stress curl in January is propitious for inducing the warm tongue in the YS to advance more northward. Hence, the wind stress curls both in January and in February could force variations of the YSWC surface axis; however, the effect of the January wind stress curl is relatively weaker than that of the February. The relationship between the NEI and the KC transport is remarkable, and it seems that the stronger KC supplies more power to push the YSWC northward against the southward wind.

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of bud development as related to climate in two coexisting Mediterranean Quercus species.

    PubMed

    Alla, Arben Q; Camarero, J Julio; Montserrat-Martí, Gabriel

    2013-02-01

    In trees, bud development is driven by endogenous and exogenous factors such as species and climate, respectively. However, knowledge is scarce on how these factors drive changes in bud size across different time scales. The seasonal patterns of apical bud enlargement are related to primary and secondary growth in two coexisting Mediterranean oaks with contrasting leaf habit (Quercus ilex, evergreen; Quercus faginea, deciduous) over three years. In addition, the climatic factors driving changes in bud size of the two oak species were determined by correlating bud mass with climatic variables at different time scales (from 5 to 30 d) over a 15-year period. The maximum enlargement rate of buds was reached between late July and mid-August in both species. Moreover, apical bud size increased with minimum air temperatures during the period of maximum bud enlargement rates. The forecasted rising minimum air temperatures predicted by climatic models may affect bud size and consequently alter crown architecture differentially in sympatric Mediterranean oaks. However, the involvement of several drivers controlling the final size of buds makes it difficult to predict the changes in bud size as related to ongoing climate warming.

  18. The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Chaoyang; Zhang, Bing; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Sun, Rui; Lei, Liping; Huang, Wenjing; Liu, Liangyun; Liu, Xinjie; Li, Jun; Luo, Shezhou; Fang, Bin

    2016-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China’s landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001–2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone. PMID:27348303

  19. The Influences of Drought and Land-Cover Conversion on Inter-Annual Variation of NPP in the Three-North Shelterbelt Program Zone of China Based on MODIS Data.

    PubMed

    Peng, Dailiang; Wu, Chaoyang; Zhang, Bing; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Sun, Rui; Lei, Liping; Huang, Wenjing; Liu, Liangyun; Liu, Xinjie; Li, Jun; Luo, Shezhou; Fang, Bin

    2016-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems greatly contribute to carbon (C) emission reduction targets through photosynthetic C uptake.Net primary production (NPP) represents the amount of atmospheric C fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. The Three-North Shelterbelt Program (TNSP) zone accounts for more than 40% of China's landmass. This zone has been the scene of several large-scale ecological restoration efforts since the late 1990s, and has witnessed significant changes in climate and human activities.Assessing the relative roles of different causal factors on NPP variability in TNSP zone is very important for establishing reasonable local policies to realize the emission reduction targets for central government. In this study, we examined the relative roles of drought and land cover conversion(LCC) on inter-annual changes of TNSP zone for 2001-2010. We applied integrated correlation and decomposition analyses to a Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and MODIS land cover dataset. Our results show that the 10-year average NPP within this region was about 420 Tg C. We found that about 60% of total annual NPP over the study area was significantly correlated with SPEI (p<0.05). The LCC-NPP relationship, which is especially evident for forests in the south-central area, indicates that ecological programs have a positive impact on C sequestration in the TNSP zone. Decomposition analysis generally indicated that the contributions of LCC, drought, and other Natural or Anthropogenic activities (ONA) to changes in NPP generally had a consistent distribution pattern for consecutive years. Drought and ONA contributed about 74% and 23% to the total changes in NPP, respectively, and the remaining 3% was attributed to LCC. Our results highlight the importance of rainfall supply on NPP variability in the TNSP zone.

  20. Inter-annual dynamics of the Barents Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) stock indices in relation to environmental factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dvoretsky, Alexander G.; Dvoretsky, Vladimir G.

    2016-12-01

    Knowledge of relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management in commercially important species. We analyzed the effects of environmental factors (climatic indices and water temperature) on the stock characteristics (total population number, number of pre-recruits and number of legal males) of the red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus), an introduced species in the Barents Sea. Stock trends in red king crab appear to be related to decadal climate shifts. Abundances were negatively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in August and positively related to water temperature in late winter-early summer. Total and commercial stock abundance were negatively correlated with the lag-1 Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in August and the lag-2 winter NAO index. The total number of P. camtschaticus was most strongly associated with water temperature in spring and summer and NAO/AO indices in April and May. Lagged NAO indices in February and August (9 or 10 yr) had a positive relationship to the commercial stock of P. camtschaticus. These findings suggest that temperature conditions of current and previous year affect natural mortality of larvae and juvenile red king crabs. Warmer temperature conditions lead to increased biomass of red king crab food items. Negative correlations between climatic indices and the red king crab stocks may be associated with predator pressure on juvenile red king crabs or higher mortality because of predator or parasite pressure and diseases. The associations between stock indices and environmental variables could help better predict recruitment patterns of P. camtschaticus.

  1. Annual migratory patterns of long-billed curlews in the American west

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, Gary W.; Warnock, Nils; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Jorgensen, Dennis; Hartman, C. Alex; Stenzel, Lynne E.

    2014-01-01

    Effective conservation of migratory species requires comprehensive knowledge of annual movement patterns. Such information is sparse for the Long-billed Curlew (Numenius americanus), a North American endemic shorebird of conservation concern. To test hypotheses about individual and area differences in migratory patterns across western North America, we tagged 29 curlews with satellite transmitters at breeding sites in Oregon, Nevada, and Montana. Transmissions from 28 birds for up to 4 years demonstrated that all wintered within the species’ known winter range, including 9 from Oregon tracked to agricultural areas of California’s Central Valley; 5 from Nevada tracked to the Central Valley, northern Gulf of California, or west coast of Baja California, Mexico; and 14 from Montana that wintered inland, from the Texas Panhandle south to the Mexican Plateau, or near the Gulf of Mexico. Montana breeders migrated east of the Rocky Mountains and traveled more than twice the distance of Oregon and Nevada breeders. Montana birds also stopped more often and longer during most passages. As a group, curlews arrived on their Oregon breeding grounds earlier than in Montana, while males preceded females in Montana and possibly Oregon. No consistent pattern emerged between sexes in departure from breeding areas, although within pairs males departed later than their mates. Individuals exhibited strong fidelity to breeding and wintering sites, and many birds showed a strong propensity for agricultural regions during winter. Our results underscore the importance of studying

  2. Inter-annual and Long-term Temperature Variations in the Mesopause Region at High Latitudes Generated by the Stratospheric QBO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mayr, Hans G.; Mengel, John G.; Huang, Frank T.

    2007-01-01

    The Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) simulates the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) that dominates the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere at low latitudes. In the model, the QBO is generated with parameterized small-scale gravity waves (GW), which are partially augmented in 3D with planetary waves owing to baroclinic instability. Due to GW filtering, the QBO extends into the upper mesosphere, evident in UARS zonal wind and TIMED temperature measurements. While the QBO zonal winds are confined to equatorial latitudes, even in simulations with latitude-independent wave source, the associated temperature variations extend to high latitudes. The meridional circulation redistributes some of the QBO energy to focus it partially onto the Polar Regions. The resulting QBO temperature variations away from the equator tend to increase at higher altitudes to produce inter-annual variations that can exceed 5 K in the polar mesopause region -- and our 3D model simulations show that the effect is variable from year to year and can produce large differences between the two hemispheres, presumably due to interactions involving the seasonal variations. Modeling studies with the NSM have shown that long-term variations can also be generated by the QBO interacting with the seasonal cycles through OW node-filtering. A 30-month QBO, optimally synchronized by the 6-month Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO), thus produces a 5-year or semi-decadal (SD) oscillation -- and observational evidence for that has been provided by a recent analysis of stratospheric NCEP data. In a simulation with the 2D version of the NSM, this SD oscillation extends into the upper mesosphere, and we present results to show that the related temperature variations could contribute significantly to the long-term variations of the polar mesopause region. Quasi-decadal variations could furthermore arise from the modeled solar cycle modulations of the QBO and 12-month annual oscillation. Our numerical results are

  3. Inter-annual changes in fish communities of a tropical bay in southeastern Brazil: What can be inferred from anthropogenic activities?

    PubMed

    Araújo, Francisco Gerson; Pinto, Samara Macedo; Neves, Leonardo Mitrano; de Azevedo, Márcia Cristina Costa

    2017-01-15

    We assessed inter-annual changes in fish assemblages of a tropical bay which experienced a heavily industrialized process in the last decades. A highly significant difference in community structure among the bay zones, and a decrease in fish richness and abundance over time were found. Changes in fish richness and abundance between the two first (1987-1988 and 1993-1995) and the two latter time periods (1998-2001 and 2012-2013) were sharpest in the inner bay zone, the most impacted bay area, and in the middle zone, whereas the outer zone remained comparatively stable over time. These changes coincided with increased metal pollution (mainly, Zn and Cd) in the bay and with the enlargement of the Sepetiba Port. Spatial changes in the fish community structure among the bay zones were related to differences in salinity, transparency and depth with this latter variable acting as a buffer stabilizing temporal community changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-range transport of atmospheric lead reaching Ny-Ålesund: Inter-annual and seasonal variations of potential source areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazzano, Andrea; Cappelletti, David; Udisti, Roberto; Grotti, Marco

    2016-08-01

    Atmospheric particulate matter (PM10) was collected at Ny-Ålesund (Svalbard Islands, Norwegian Arctic) during spring and summer from 2010 to 2014 and analysed for lead content, enrichment factor and isotopic composition (208Pb/206Pb and 207Pb/206Pb). It was found that atmospheric lead was mainly of anthropogenic origin and neither its mean concentration, nor its isotopic composition was subjected to significant inter-annual differences (p-value > 0.1). Seasonal differences in both lead content and isotopic compositions occurred (p-value < 0.001), with the exception of 2013 samples. Lead content in spring was higher than in summer. Isotopic analysis indicated that mining and smelting activities in the Rudny Altay region (Central Eurasia), as well as industrial emission in north-eastern North America, were the main sources of atmospheric lead in spring and summer, respectively. During 2013, no significant differences between the two seasons were found (p-value > 0.3), showing a prolonged influence of Eurasian sources also in summer. The results obtained by the Pb isotopic composition were corroborated by a back-trajectory cluster analysis of air-masses reaching the sampling site.

  5. Climate response and spatial-temporal model on the inter-annual change of winter temperature-salinity in the East China Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jin-kun; Miao, Qing-sheng; Yang, Yang; Xu, Shan-shan

    2017-01-01

    Spatial distributions and time variation characteristics were analyzed using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and spectrum analysis methods using surface and bottom temperature and salinity data in February of 1976-2013 along 30°N section in the East China Sea. Result showed that temperature trends can be divided into western part and east part, salinity trend divided into western, middle and eastern part. The first mode of surface temperature presented a quasi-equilibrium trend and the range was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, first mode of bottom temperature presented a decreasing trend; surface salinity had a decreasing trend and the extent was higher in the near-shore than the offshores, the bottom salinity showed a decreasing trend in recent years. The temperature inter-annual variability related to El Niño closely; short-term shocks of salinity related to El Niño, and long-term changes had something to do with PDO.

  6. Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

    PubMed

    Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

    2014-01-01

    Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

  7. Inter-Annual Variability of Currents, Temperature and Salinity during 1998-2012 in a High-Resolution Ocean Model of the Western Indian Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jensen, T. G.; Ko, D. S.; Wijesekera, H. W.

    2014-12-01

    A simulation of the 3-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and currents of from 1998 through 2012 was done using the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) with a 6-km resolution and 40 vertical sigma-z levels. The forcing is 3-hourly atmospheric output from the Navy's Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS). The boundary conditions are provided by the 1/8o Global NCOM model. In addition, 8 semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal components and monthly climatological discharges of 37 rivers are included. The model assimilates satellite altimeter data, AVHRR SST and synthetic temperature and salinity profiles from the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS). The model output is filtered to remove tides and saved as daily averages. From out analysis we find large inter-annual variability in the strength of the South Equatorial Counter Current and in the subsurface temperature cold anomaly associated with Seyshelles-Chagos thermocline ridge. The cold anomaly was significantly reduced in 2007 during which had a rare co-occurrence of La Nina and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Year to year variability in the equatorial currents affects the Somali Current and the time of development and strength of the Great Whirl during the southwest monsoon.

  8. Topographic control of snowpack distribution in a small catchment in the central Spanish Pyrenees: intra- and inter-annual persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revuelto, J.; López-Moreno, J. I.; Azorin-Molina, C.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.

    2014-10-01

    days on which the snowpack was thinner and more patchily. Despite the differences in climatic conditions in the 2012 and 2013 snow seasons, similarities in snow distributions patterns were observed which are directly related to terrain topographic characteristics.

  9. Secular change and inter-annual variability of the Gulf Stream position, 1993-2013, 70°-55°W

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisagni, James J.; Gangopadhyay, Avijit; Sanchez-Franks, Alejandra

    2017-07-01

    The Gulf Stream (GS) is the northeastward-flowing surface limb of the Atlantic Ocean's meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) ;conveyer belt; that flows towards Europe and the Nordic Seas. Changes in the GS position after its separation from the coast at Cape Hatteras, i.e., from 75°W to 50°W, may be key to understanding the AMOC, sea level variability and ecosystem behavior along the east coast of North America. In this study we compare secular change and inter-annual variability (IAV) of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW) position with equator-ward Labrador Current (LC) transport along the southwestern Grand Banks near 52°W using 21 years (1993-2013) of satellite altimeter data. Results at 55°, 60°, and 65°W show a significant southward (negative) secular trend for the GSNW, decreasing to a small but insignificant southward trend at 70°W. IAV of de-trended GSNW position residuals also decreases to the west. The long-term secular trend of annual mean upper layer (200 m) LC transport near 52°W is positive. Furthermore, IAV of LC transport residuals near 52°W along the southwestern Grand Banks are significantly correlated with GSNW position residuals at 55°W at a lag of +1-year, with positive (negative) LC transport residuals corresponding to southward (northward) GSNW positions one year later. The Taylor-Stephens index (TSI) computed from the first principal component of the GSNW position from 79° to 65°W shows a similar relationship with a more distal LC index computed along altimeter ground track 250 located north of the Grand Banks across Hamilton Bank in the western Labrador Sea. Increased (decreased) sea height differences along ground track 250 are significantly correlated with a more southward (northward) TSI two years later (lag of +2-years). Spectral analysis of IAV reveals corresponding spectral peaks at 5-7 years and 2-3 years for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), GSNW (70°-55°W) and LC transport near 52°W for the 1993-2013 period

  10. Predicting Rift Valley Fever Inter-epidemic Activities and Outbreak Patterns: Insights from a Stochastic Host-Vector Model

    PubMed Central

    Pedro, Sansao A.; Abelman, Shirley; Tonnang, Henri E. Z.

    2016-01-01

    Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks are recurrent, occurring at irregular intervals of up to 15 years at least in East Africa. Between outbreaks disease inter-epidemic activities exist and occur at low levels and are maintained by female Aedes mcintoshi mosquitoes which transmit the virus to their eggs leading to disease persistence during unfavourable seasons. Here we formulate and analyse a full stochastic host-vector model with two routes of transmission: vertical and horizontal. By applying branching process theory we establish novel relationships between the basic reproduction number, R0, vertical transmission and the invasion and extinction probabilities. Optimum climatic conditions and presence of mosquitoes have not fully explained the irregular oscillatory behaviour of RVF outbreaks. Using our model without seasonality and applying van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how outbreaks multi-year periodicity varies with the vertical transmission. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 1 to 10 years which essentially depends on the efficiency of vertical transmission. Our predictions are then compared to temporal patterns of disease outbreaks in Tanzania, Kenya and South Africa. Our analyses show that interaction between nonlinearity, stochasticity and vertical transmission provides a simple but plausible explanation for the irregular oscillatory nature of RVF outbreaks. Therefore, we argue that while rainfall might be the major determinant for the onset and switch-off of an outbreak, the occurrence of a particular outbreak is also a result of a build up phenomena that is correlated to vertical transmission efficiency. PMID:28002417

  11. InterVA versus Spectrum: how comparable are they in estimating AIDS mortality patterns in Nairobi's informal settlements?

    PubMed Central

    Oti, Samuel Oji; Wamukoya, Marilyn; Mahy, Mary; Kyobutungi, Catherine

    2013-01-01

    Background The Spectrum computer package is used to generate national AIDS mortality estimates in settings where vital registration systems are lacking. Similarly, InterVA-4 (the latest version of the InterVA programme) is used to estimate cause-of-mortality data in countries where cause-specific mortality data are not available. Objective This study aims to compare trends in adult AIDS-related mortality estimated by Spectrum with trends from the InterVA-4 programme applied to data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in Nairobi, Kenya. Design A Spectrum model was generated for the city of Nairobi based on HIV prevalence data for Nairobi and national antiretroviral therapy coverage, underlying mortality, and migration assumptions. We then used data, generated through verbal autopsies, on 1,799 deaths that occurred in the HDSS area from 2003 to 2010 among adults aged 15–59. These data were then entered into InterVA-4 to estimate causes of death using probabilistic modelling. Estimates of AIDS-related mortality rates and all-cause mortality rates from Spectrum and InterVA-4 were compared and presented as annualised trends. Results Spectrum estimated that HIV prevalence in Nairobi was 7%, while the HDSS site measured 12% in 2010. Despite this difference, Spectrum estimated higher levels of AIDS-related mortality. Between 2003 and 2010, the proportion of AIDS-related mortality in Nairobi decreased from 63 to 40% according to Spectrum and from 25 to 16% according to InterVA. The net AIDS-related mortality in Spectrum was closer to the combined mortality rates when AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) deaths were included for InterVA-4. Conclusion Overall trends in AIDS-related deaths from both methods were similar, although the values were closer when TB deaths were included in InterVA. InterVA-4 might not accurately differentiate between TB and AIDS deaths. PMID:24160914

  12. Modeling effects of inter-annual variability in meteorological and land use conditions on coupled water and energy cycling in the cultivated African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velluet, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Braud, I.; Boulain, N.; Favreau, G.; Charvet, G.; Ramier, D.; Issoufou, H.; Boucher, M.; Mainassara, I.; Chazarin, J.; Oï, M.; Yahou, H.; Benarrosh, N.; Ibrahim, M.

    2012-12-01

    In the dry tropics in general and in the African Sahel in particular, hydro-ecosystems are very sensitive to climate variability and land management. In the Niamey region of South-West Niger, a severe multi-decadal drought together with large-scale vegetation clearing coincided with an unexpected increase in surface and ground water resources. Such an apparent paradoxical situation illustrates the complex way in which climate and land cover interactions control the Sahelian water cycle dynamics. This stresses the importance of understanding and reliably modeling water/energy transfers in the local soil-plant-atmosphere system, under contrasted meteorological and surface conditions. This study investigates the effects of the inter-annual variability of meteorological and land use conditions on the coupled water and energy cycles in the cultivated Sahel over a 5-year period. This is based on a comprehensive multi-year field dataset acquired for a millet crop field and a fallow savannah, the two main land cover types of South-West Niger (Wankama catchment in the mesoscale AMMA-CATCH Niger observatory, part of the French-initiated RBV network). It includes atmospheric forcing, seasonal course of vegetation phenology, soil properties and model validation variables (net radiation, turbulent fluxes, soil heat/water profiles), for the two fields. The study area is typical of Central Sahel conditions, with 400-600 mm annual rainfall concentrated in the 4-5 month wet season. Soils are mainly sandy and prone to surface crusting, leading to a strong vertical contrast in hydrodynamic properties. The SiSPAT process-based model used solves the 1D mass and heat transfer system of equations in the soil, including vapor phase and coupled with a two-component (bare soil and vegetation) water and energy budget at the surface-atmosphere interface. The study explores whether such a model can be accurately calibrated and validated for the two sites using realistic-parameter values. The

  13. Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selvam, A. M.

    2017-01-01

    Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference

  14. Atmospheric mercury measurements at a suburban site in the Mid-Atlantic United States: Inter-annual, seasonal and diurnal variations and source-receptor relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Xinrong; Luke, Winston T.; Kelley, Paul; Cohen, Mark D.; Artz, Richard; Olson, Mark L.; Schmeltz, David; Puchalski, Melissa; Goldberg, Daniel L.; Ring, Allison; Mazzuca, Gina M.; Cummings, Kristin A.; Wojdan, Lisa; Preaux, Sandra; Stehr, Jeff W.

    2016-12-01

    Different atmospheric mercury forms have been measured at a suburban site in Beltsville, Maryland in the Mid-Atlantic United States since 2007 to investigate their inter-annual, seasonal and diurnal variabilities. Average concentrations and standard deviations of hourly measurements from 2007 to 2015 were 1.41 ± 0.23 ng m-3 for gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), 4.6 ± 33.7 pg m-3 for gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM), and 8.6 ± 56.8 pg m-3 for particulate-bound mercury (PBM). Observations show that on average, the rates of decrease were 0.020 ± 0.007 ng m-3 yr-1 (or 1.3 ± 0.5% yr-1, statistically significant, p-value < 0.01) for GEM, 0.54 ± 0.19 pg m-3 yr-1 (or 7.3 ± 2.6% yr-1, statistically significant, p-value < 0.01) for GOM, and 0.15 ± 0.35 pg m-3 yr-1 (or 1.6 ± 3.8% yr-1, statistically insignificant, p-value > 0.01) for PBM over this nine-year period. In addition, the collocated annual mercury wet deposition decreased at a rate of 0.51 ± 0.24 μg m-2 yr-2 (or 4.2 ± 1.9% yr-1, statistically insignificant, p-value > 0.01). Diurnal variation of GEM shows a slight peak in the morning, likely due to the shallow boundary layer. Seasonal variation of GEM shows lower levels in fall. Both diurnal variations of GOM and PBM show peaks in the afternoon likely due to the photochemical production of reactive mercury from the oxidation of GEM and the influence of boundary layer processes. Seasonally, GOM measurements show high levels in spring and constant low levels in the other three seasons, while PBM measurements exhibit higher levels from late fall to early spring and lower levels from late spring to fall. These measurement data were analyzed using the HYSPLIT back trajectory model in order to examine possible source-receptor relationships at this suburban site. Trajectory frequency analysis shows that high GEM/GOM/PBM events were generally associated with high frequencies of the trajectories passing through areas with high mercury emissions, while low GEM

  15. Integrating inter- and intra-annual tree-ring width, carbon isotopes and anatomy: responses to climate variability in a temperate oak forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granda, Elena; Bazot, Stéphane; Fresneau, Chantal; Boura, Anaïs; Faccioni, Georgia; Damesin, Claire

    2015-04-01

    While many forests are experiencing strong tree declines due to climate change in temperate ecosystems, others nearby to those declining show no apparent signs of decline. This could be due to particular microsite conditions or, for instance, to a higher plasticity of given traits that allow a better performance under stressful conditions. We studied oak functional mechanisms (Quercus petraea) leading to the apparently healthy status of the forest and their relation to the observed climatic variability. This study was conducted in the Barbeau Forest (northern France), where cores from mature trees were collected. Three types of functional traits (secondary growth, physiological variables - δ13C and derived Δ13C and iWUE- and several anatomical ones -e.g. vessel area, density-) were recorded for each ring for the 1991-2011 period, distinguishing EW from LW in all measured traits. Among the three types of functional traits, those related to growth experienced the highest variability both between years and between individuals, followed by anatomical and physiological ones. Secondary growth maintained a constant trend during the study period. Instead, ring, EW and LW δ13C slightly declined from 1991 to 2011. Additional intra-ring δ13C analyses allowed for a more detailed understanding of the seasonal dynamics within each year. In particular, the year 2007 (an especially favorable climatic year during the growing season) showed the lowest δ13C values during the EW-LW transition for the whole study period. Inter-annual anatomical traits varied in their responses, but in general, no temporal trends were found. The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) showed direct relationships of seasonal climate and growth, as well as indirect relationships mediated by anatomical and physiological traits. We further discuss the implications of these results on future forest responses to ongoing climate changes.

  16. Inter-annual trend of the primary contribution of ship emissions to PM2.5 concentrations in Venice (Italy): Efficiency of emissions mitigation strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contini, Daniele; Gambaro, Andrea; Donateo, Antonio; Cescon, Paolo; Cesari, Daniela; Merico, Eva; Belosi, Franco; Citron, Marta

    2015-02-01

    Ships and harbour emissions are currently increasing, due to the increase of tourism and trade, with potential impact on global air pollution and climate. At local scale, in-port ship emissions influence air quality in coastal areas impacting on health of coastal communities. International legislations to reduce ship emissions, both at Worldwide and European levels, are mainly based on the use of low-sulphur content fuel. In this work an analysis of the inter-annual trends of primary contribution, ε, of tourist shipping to the atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations in the urban area of Venice has been performed. Measurements have been taken in the summer periods of 2007, 2009 and 2012. Results show a decrease of ε from 7% (±1%) in 2007 to 5% (±1%) in 2009 and to 3.5% (±1%) in 2012. The meteorological and micrometeorological conditions of the campaigns were similar. Tourist ship traffic during measurement campaigns increased, in terms of gross tonnage, of about 25.4% from 2007 to 2009 and of 17.6% from 2009 to 2012. The decrease of ε was associated to the effect of a voluntary agreement (Venice Blue Flag) for the use of low-sulphur content fuel enforced in the area between 2007 and 2009 and to the implementation of the 2005/33/CE Directive in 2010. Results show that the use of low-sulphur fuel could effectively reduce the impact of shipping to atmospheric primary particles at local scale. Further, voluntary agreement could also be effective in reducing the impact of shipping on local air quality in coastal areas.

  17. Seasonal and Inter-annual Changes in Photosynthetic and Soil Respiratory Processes in a Cool-temperate Deciduous Forest on a Mountainous Landscape in Japan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muraoka, H.; Noh, N. J.; Saitoh, T. M.; Nagao, A.; Noda, H. M.; Kuribayashi, M.; Nagai, S.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems is one of the most crucial themes in ecosystem sciences under current and future climate changes as it would affect our Earth system. Remote sensing and modeling analysis studies from continental to global scales have been indicating that the recent climate change is influential to photosynthetic processes in terrestrial vegetation such as forests and grasslands, by altering phenology (seasonal change) and foliage biomass. In addition, increasing temperature and possibly changing photosynthetic activities of plants are influential to soil carbon dynamics. Our deeper and broader understandings on such photosynthetic and respiratory processes governing carbon cycle and hence budget of terrestrial ecosystems are critical to detect the changes of ecosystem processes and the functions in changing environments, as they would influence the biodiversity, ecosystem services and Earth system.In order to reveal the nature of temporal changes in photosynthetic and respiratory processes in forest ecosystems, we have been conducting multi-disciplinary observations of ecophysiological and optical properties for canopy photosynthesis in a cool-temperate deciduous forest since 2003 ("Takayama site", contributing to AsiaFlux and JaLTER). In addition, open-field warming experiments have been conducted since 2011 to examine the possible influence of near-future warming condition on forest canopy photosynthesis and soil respiration. (1) Our long-term measurements of leaf and canopy photosynthesis revealed that their phenology is influenced by inter-annual variation of micrometeorological conditions. (2) Combined analysis of leaf-canopy photosynthesis and optical properties enabled us to estimate the forest photosynthetic productivity at regional scale by satellite data. (3) Open-field warming experiments suggested that tree foliage and soil processes would acclimate to near-future warming conditions.

  18. North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II): Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Behrens, E.; Bentsen, M.; Bi, D.; Biastoch, A.; Bleck, R.; Boning, C. W.; Bozec, A.; Canuto, V.; Cassou, C.; Chassignet, E.; Coward, A.; Danilov, S.; Diansky, N.; Drange, H.; Farneti, R.; Fernandez, E.; Fogli, P. G.; Jung, T.; Forget, G.; Fujii, Y.; Griffies, S. M.; Gusev, A. A.; Heimbach, P.; Howard, A. M.; Ilicak, M.; Karspeck, A. R.; Kelley, M.; Large, W.; Leboissetier, A.; Lu, J.; Madec, G.; Marsland, S. J.; Masina, S.; Navarra, A.; Nurser, A. J. G.; Pirani, A.; Romanou, A.; Salas y Mélia, D.; Hunter Samuels, B. L.; Scheinert, M.; Sidorenko, D.; Sun, S.; Treguier, A. M.; Tsujino, H.; Uotila, P.; Valcke, S.; Voldoire, A.; Wang, Q.; Yashayaev, I.

    2016-02-01

    Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented.These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the CoordinatedOcean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlanticmeridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models.Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, suchas subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the LabradorSea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOCvariability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid-to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term(1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement isthen followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. Thissequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies.Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our resultssupport a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification isconnected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, drivenby NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in theirrepresentations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layerdepth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs iscaptured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability andtrends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influenceof ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite thesegeneral agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions

  19. Understanding Historical Human Migration Patterns and Interbreeding (JGI Seventh Annual User Meeting 2012: Genomics of Energy and Environment)

    ScienceCinema

    Willerslev, Eske [University of Copenhagen

    2016-07-12

    Eske Willerslev from the University of Copenhagen on "Understanding Historical Human Migration Patterns and Interbreeding Using the Ancient Genomes of a Palaeo-Eskimo and an Aboriginal Australian" at the 7th Annual Genomics of Energy & Environment Meeting on March 21, 2012 in Walnut Creek, California.

  20. Understanding Historical Human Migration Patterns and Interbreeding (JGI Seventh Annual User Meeting 2012: Genomics of Energy and Environment)

    SciTech Connect

    Willerslev, Eske

    2012-03-21

    Eske Willerslev from the University of Copenhagen on "Understanding Historical Human Migration Patterns and Interbreeding Using the Ancient Genomes of a Palaeo-Eskimo and an Aboriginal Australian" at the 7th Annual Genomics of Energy & Environment Meeting on March 21, 2012 in Walnut Creek, California.

  1. Analysis of the seasonal and inter-annual variations, and long-term trends of ozone in the metropolitan area of Monterrey, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yassmany Hernández Paniagua, Iván; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Since 1993, high-precision and high-frequency measurements of ambient O3 have been recorded at 5 sites within the metropolitan area of Monterrey, the third largest city in Mexico. O3was measured by the Integral Environmental Monitoring System of the Nuevo Leon State Government using commercially available, conventional UV photometry instrumentation (precision better than ±1 ppb). The datasets exhibit variations on differing time-scales of minutes to hours, with evidence of seasonal cycles and inter-annual variability. The O3 diurnal cycles vary with length of daylight, which influences its formation and loss via photochemistry. No apparent influence is observed in the amplitudes of O3 diurnal cycles recorded during weekdays with higher emissions from fossil fuel combustion than at weekends, although larger amplitudes occur at sites with polluted air from industrial areas. Seasonal cycles are driven by the variation in solar radiation and changes in emissions of primary precursors, VOCs and NOX. Maximum O3 mixing ratios were recorded in spring, and minimum values in winter, with a secondary trough during summer due to the advection of clean air masses from the Gulf of Mexico. The largest spring maxima are recorded downwind of an industrial area likely due photochemical processing of VOCs and NOx, with the lowest recorded in a highly populated area due to reaction of O3 and NO. At all sites, decreasing seasonal amplitudes were observed during 1993-1998, followed by persistent increases from 1998 to 2014. Wind sector analyses were carried out by splitting the wind direction into 8 categories (45°). At all sites, the highest O3 mixing ratios were recorded from the E and SE sectors, with lowest values recorded in air masses from the W and NW. Wind sector analysis of primary precursors (such as VOCs, CO, NOX) reveal that sources are dominated by emissions from industrial regions in Monterrey and surrounding areas. The largest annual growth rates for the E and SE

  2. Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape.

    PubMed

    Hytteborn, Julia K; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B; Boyer, Elizabeth W; Futter, Martyn N; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H

    2015-07-01

    Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type). Catchment area (0.18-47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p<0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l(-1) (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l(-1)year(-1) (1.6% year(-1)). Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality. Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability

  3. How tropical cyclone inter-annual timing and trajectory control gross primary productivity in the SE US at seasonal and annual timescales and impacts on mountain forest eco-hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowman, L.; Barros, A.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are an important source of freshwater input to the SE US eco-hydrologic function. Soil moisture, a temporal integral of precipitation, is critical to plant photosynthesis and carbon assimilation. In this study, we investigate the impact TCs have on gross primary productivity (GPP) in the SE US using the physically-based Duke Coupled Hydrology Model with Vegetation (DCHM-V) which includes coupled water and energy cycles and a biochemical representation of photosynthesis. A parsimonious evaluation of model-estimated GPP against all available AmeriFlux data in the SE US is presented. We characterize the seasonality of vegetation activity in the SE US by simulating water, energy, and carbon fluxes using the DCHM-V at high spatial (4 km) and temporal (30-min) resolution over the period 2002 - 2012. The model is run offline using atmospheric forcing data from NLDAS-2, precipitation from StageIV, and phenology indices from MODIS FPAR/LAI. Analysis of model results show the tendency for low GPP to occur in the Appalachian Mountains during peak summer months when water stress limits stomatal function. We contrast these simulations with model runs where periods of TC activity are replaced with the monthly climatological diurnal cycle from NARR. Results show that the timing and trajectory of TCs are key to understanding their impact on GPP across the SE US. Specifically: 1) Timing of moisture input from TCs greatly influences the vegetation response. TCs during peak summer months increase GPP and years with TCs falling in peak summer months see much higher annual GPP averages; 2) Years of drought and low plant productivity (2006-2007, 2011-2012) in the SE US tend to have TCs that fall later in the year when the additional moisture input does not have a significant impact on vegetation activity; and 3) TC path impacts regional GPP averages. The mountain region shows large inter- and intra-annual variability in plant productivity and high sensitivity to

  4. Intra- and Inter-Individual Variation in Self-Reported Code-Switching Patterns of Adult Multilinguals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dewaele, Jean-Marc; Li, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The present study is a large-scale quantitative analysis of intra-individual variation (linked to type of interlocutor) and inter-individual variation (linked to multilingualism, sociobiographical variables and three personality traits) in self-reported frequency of code-switching (CS) among 2116 multilinguals. We found a significant effect of…

  5. Intra- and Inter-Individual Variation in Self-Reported Code-Switching Patterns of Adult Multilinguals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dewaele, Jean-Marc; Li, Wei

    2014-01-01

    The present study is a large-scale quantitative analysis of intra-individual variation (linked to type of interlocutor) and inter-individual variation (linked to multilingualism, sociobiographical variables and three personality traits) in self-reported frequency of code-switching (CS) among 2116 multilinguals. We found a significant effect of…

  6. Significance of ozone exposure for inter-annual differences in primary metabolites of old-growth beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) trees in a mixed forest stand.

    PubMed

    Alexou, M; Hofer, N; Liu, X; Rennenberg, H; Haberer, K

    2007-03-01

    The influence of long-term free-air ozone fumigation and canopy position on leaf contents of total glutathione, its redox state, non-structural proteins (NSP), soluble amino compounds, and total soluble sugars in old-growth beech (FAGUS SYLVATICA) and spruce (PICEA ABIES) trees were determined over a period of five years. Ozone fumigation had weak effects on the analysed metabolites of both tree species and significant changes in the contents of total glutathione, NSP, and soluble sugars were observed only selectively. Beech leaves were affected by crown position to a higher extent than spruce needles and exhibited lower contents of total glutathione and NSP and total soluble sugars, but enhanced contents of oxidised glutathione and amino compounds in the shade compared to the sun crown. Contents of total soluble sugars generally were decreased in shade compared to sun needles of spruce trees. Interspecific differences between beech and spruce were more distinct in the sun compared to the shade crown. Contents of total glutathione were increased whilst contents of amino compounds and total soluble sugars were lower in spruce needles compared to beech leaves. The metabolites determined showed individual patterns in the course of the five measurement years. Contents of total glutathione and its redox state correlated with air temperature and global radiation, indicating an important role for the antioxidant at low temperatures. Correlations of glutathione with instantaneous ozone concentrations seem to be a secondary effect. Differences in proteins and/or amino compounds in the inter-annual course are assumed to be a consequence of alterations in specific N uptake rates.

  7. Regional and inter-annual variability in Atlantic zooplankton en route to the Arctic Ocean: potential effects of multi-path Atlantic water advection through Fram Strait and the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwasniewski, Slawomir; Gluchowska, Marta; Trudnowska, Emilia; Ormanczyk, Mateusz; Walczowski, Waldemar; Beszczynska-Moeller, Agnieszka

    2016-04-01

    The Arctic is among the regions where the climate change effects on ecosystem will be the most rapid and consequential, with Arctic amplification recognized as an integral part of the process. Great part of the changes are forced by advection of warm waters from the North Atlantic and the expected modifications of Arctic marine ecosystem will be induced not only by changing environmental conditions but also as a result of introducing Atlantic biota. Thus, the knowledge of physical and biological heterogeneity of Atlantic inflow is requisite for understanding the effects of climate change on biological diversity and ecosystem functioning in the Arctic. The complex and variable two-branched structure of the Atlantic Water flow via Fram Strait and the Barents Sea most likely has a strong influence on the ocean biology in these regions, especially in the pelagic realm. Zooplankton are key components of marine ecosystems which form essential links between primary producers and grazer/predator consumers, thus they are important for functioning of the biological carbon pump. Changes in zooplankton distribution and abundance may have cascading effects on ecosystem functioning, with regulatory effects on climate. Based on data collected in summers of 2012-2014, within the scope of the Polish-Norwegian PAVE research project, we investigate zooplankton distribution, abundance and selected structural characteristics of communities, in relation to water mass properties in the Atlantic Water complex flow to the Arctic Ocean. The main questions addressed here are: what are the differences in zooplankton patterns between the Fram Strait and Barents Sea branches, and how does the inter-annual variability of Atlantic Water advection relate to changes in zooplankton? The results of the investigation are precondition for foreseeing changes in the pelagic realm in the Arctic Ocean and are necessary for constructing and tuning plankton components of ecosystem models.

  8. Geospatial and temporal patterns of annual cholera outbreaks in Matlab, Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majumder, M. S.; de Klerk, K.; Meyers, D.

    2012-12-01

    Cholera is a waterborne diarrheal disease endemic to Bangladesh, resulting in 1 million diagnoses annually. Such disease burden results in incalculable lost wages and treatment expenses, taken from the pockets of an already impoverished society. Two seasonally correlated outbreaks of cholera occur in Bangladesh every year. In the spring and early summer, the Bay of Bengal - which serves as a natural reservoir for the cholera bacteria - flows inland, causing the first outbreak amongst coastal communities. Waste containing the cholera bacteria enters the sewage system and remains untreated due to poor water and sanitation infrastructure. Therefore, during the following monsoon season, flooding of cholera-contaminated sewage into drinking water sources results in a second outbreak. Though considered common knowledge among local populations, this geographic and temporal progression has not been empirically verified in the current literature. The aim of our ongoing study is to systematically analyze the seasonal trajectory of endemic cholera in Bangladesh. This paper discusses the results obtained from a comprehensive survey of available cholera data from the International Centre of Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) in Matlab, Bangladesh. Matlab thana is a near-coastal community that consists of 142 villages. Monsoon season takes place from June through October. Due to its proximity to the Meghna River, which opens into the Bay of Bengal, the area experiences significant flooding during these months. Using 10 years of geographically referenced cholera data, cases were plotted in time and space. Preliminary patterns suggest that villages closer to the Meghna River experience the majority of the area's cholera outbreaks and that case count is highest in late spring and late fall. April/May and November/December represent 25% and 23% of total annual case counts respectively. Moreover, villages further from the coastline demonstrate 57% higher relative

  9. Precipitation-dependent Flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora in Mediterranean Shrubland Under Experimental Drought and Warming, and its Inter-annual Variability

    PubMed Central

    Prieto, Patricia; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc

    2008-01-01

    Background and Aims Relationships between autumn flowering, precipitation and temperature of plant species of Mediterranean coastal shrublands have been described, but not analysed experimentally. These relationships were analysed for two species of co-occurring, dominant, autumn-flowering shrubs, Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora, over 4 years and in experimentally generated drought and warming conditions. The aim was to improve predictions about the responses and adaptations of flowering of Mediterranean vegetation to climate change. Methods Beginning of anthesis and date of maximum flowering intensity (‘peak date’) were monitored over 4 years (2001–2004) on a garrigue land type in the noth-east of the Iberian Peninsula. Two experimental treatments were applied, increased temperature (+0·73°C) and reduced soil moisture (–17%) relative to untreated plots. Key Results Flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora differed greatly between years depending on the precipitation of the previous months and the date of the last substantial rainfall (>10 mm). Globularia alypum flowered once or twice (unimodal or bimodal) as the result of differences in the distribution and magnitude of precipitation in late-spring and summer (when floral buds develop). The drought treatment delayed and decreased flowering of Globularia alypum in 2001 and delayed flowering in 2002. Warming extended the period between the beginning of flowering and the end of the second peak for autumn flowering in 2001 and also increased peak intensity in 2002. Flowering of Erica multiflora was unaffected by either treatment. Conclusions Autumn flowering of Globularia alypum and Erica multiflora is more dependent on water availability than on temperature. Considerable inter-annual plasticity in the beginning of anthesis and peak date and on unimodal or bimodal flowering constitutes a ‘safe strategy’ for both species in relation to varying precipitation and temperature. However

  10. Differential responses of seabirds to inter-annual environmental change in the continental shelf and oceanic habitats of southeastern Bering Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, T.; Kokubun, N.; Kikuchi, D. M.; Sato, N.; Takahashi, A.; Will, A.; Kitaysky, A. S.; Watanuki, Y.

    2015-11-01

    Seasonal sea-ice cover has been decreasing in the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, which might affect ecosystem dynamics and availability of food resources to marine top predators breeding in the region. In this study, we investigated the foraging responses of two seabird species, surface-foraging red-legged kittiwakes Rissa brevirostris (hereafter, RLKI) and pursuit-diving foraging thick-billed murres Uria lomvia (TBMU) to the inter-annual change in environmental conditions. Between the study years, winter ice retreated earlier and summer water temperatures were warmer in 2014 compared to those in 2013. At-sea distributions of RLKI and TBMU breeding on St. George Island, the largest seabird colony in the region, were recorded using GPS loggers, and blood samples were taken to examine their physiological condition and isotopic foraging niche in a given year. RLKI foraging occurred mostly over the oceanic basin in both years. TBMU, however, foraged mostly over the shelf, but showed a relatively higher use of the shelf break and oceanic basin in the colder year, 2013. The foraging distances from the colony peaked at 250-300 km in 2013 and, bimodally, at 150-250 and 300-350 km in 2014 for RLKI, and tended to be farther in 2013 compared to those in 2014 for TBMU. Plasma levels of corticosterone did not differ between years in RLKI, but differed in TBMU, showing higher levels of physiological stress incurred by murres during the colder year, 2013. δ13N (a proxy of trophic level of prey) did not differ between the years in either RLKI or TBMU, while δ13C (a proxy of prey origin) were lower in 2014 than in 2013 in both species, suggesting possible differences in influx of oceanic prey items into foraging areas. These results suggest that the response of ecosystem dynamics to climate variability in the southeast Bering Sea may differ between the ocean basin and continental shelf regions, which, in turn, may generate differential responses in seabirds relying on those

  11. Inter-annual to decadal sea level variability along the Norwegian coast and in the Siberian Seas; a link with the Eastern North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calafat, F. M.; Chambers, D. P.

    2012-12-01

    Inter-annual to decadal sea level variations from tide gauge records along the Norwegian coast and in the Siberian Seas are examined for the period 1950 to present. A combination of observations and theory is used to explore the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed sea level variability. Tide gauge records are first grouped into 6 geographical regions: the Norwegian Coast, the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukchi Sea. Then an average of sea level at tide gauges is computed for each region. All regions exhibit large decadal sea level variations (up to 20 cm). Sea level corrected for the inverse barometer effect is significantly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation index in all regions except in the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas. There is a coherent sea level signal that affects a region extending from Southwest Norway to the Kara Sea. Previous studies have found that sea level variability at the Norwegian coast is related to variations in the Norwegian Atlantic Current (NwAC), which are mainly driven by changes in the wind forcing over the region. Here we show that, apart from the contribution of the NwAC and the local wind, there is an additional contribution to the sea level variability at the Norwegian coast resulting from the poleward propagation of wind-driven sea level variations along the continental slope of the Northeast Atlantic. The fact that sea level variability in both the Barents and the Kara Seas is highly coherent with that in the Norwegian coast suggests propagation of sea level variations further north into these regions. Eastward of the Kara Sea, where the continental shelf is shallower, sea level variations are much larger than in the other regions and they are highly correlated (~0.75) with the local longshore wind.he average of sea level at 8 tide gauge stations on the Norwegian coast (black line) and a reconstruction of sea level (blue line) using a combination of the tide gauge at

  12. Inter-annual variability of surface ozone at coastal (Dumont d'Urville, 2004-2014) and inland (Concordia, 2007-2014) sites in East Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legrand, Michel; Preunkert, Susanne; Savarino, Joël; Frey, Markus M.; Kukui, Alexandre; Helmig, Detlev; Jourdain, Bruno; Jones, Anna E.; Weller, Rolf; Brough, Neil; Gallée, Hubert

    2016-07-01

    Surface ozone has been measured since 2004 at the coastal East Antarctic site of Dumont d'Urville (DDU), and since 2007 at the Concordia station located on the high East Antarctic plateau. This paper discusses long-term changes, seasonal and diurnal cycles, as well as inter-annual summer variability observed at these two East Antarctic sites. At Concordia, near-surface ozone data were complemented by balloon soundings and compared to similar measurements done at the South Pole. The DDU record is compared to those obtained at the coastal site of Syowa, also located in East Antarctica, as well as the coastal sites of Neumayer and Halley, both located on the coast of the Weddell Sea in West Antarctica. Surface ozone mixing ratios exhibit very similar seasonal cycles at Concordia and the South Pole. However, in summer the diurnal cycle of ozone is different at the two sites with a drop of ozone in the afternoon at Concordia but not at the South Pole. The vertical distribution of ozone above the snow surface also differs. When present, the ozone-rich layer located near the ground is better mixed and deeper at Concordia (up to 400 m) than at the South Pole during sunlight hours. These differences are related to different solar radiation and wind regimes encountered at these two inland sites. DDU appears to be the coastal site where the impact of the late winter/spring bromine chemistry is the weakest, but where the impact of elevated ozone levels caused by NOx snow emissions from the high Antarctic plateau is the highest. The highest impact of the bromine chemistry is seen at Halley and Neumayer, and to a lesser extent at Syowa. These three sites are only weakly impacted by the NOx chemistry and the net ozone production occurring on the high Antarctic plateau. The differences in late winter/spring are attributed to the abundance of sea ice offshore from the sites, whereas those in summer are related to the topography of East Antarctica that promotes the katabatic flow

  13. Inter-annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Semi-arid Oak-savanna Ecosystem: Measured and Modeled Buffering to Precipitation Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raz-Yaseef, N.; Sonnentag, O.; Kobayashi, H.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2010-12-01

    Precipitation (P) is the primary control on vegetation dynamics and productivity, implying that climate induced disturbances in frequency and timing of P are intimately coupled with fluxes of carbon, water and energy. Future climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall events as well as droughts, suggesting linked vegetation changes to an unknown extent. Semi-arid climates experience large inter-annual variability (IAV) in P, creating natural conditions adequate to study how year-to-year changes in P affect atmosphere-biosphere fluxes. We used a 10-year flux database collected at a semi-arid savanna site in order to: (1) define IAV in P by means of frequency and timing; (2) investigate how changes in P affect the ecohydrology of the forest and its partitioning into the main vapor fluxes, and (3) evaluate model capability to predict IAV of carbon and water fluxes above and below the canopy. This is based on the perception that the capability of process-oriented models to construct the deviation, and not the average, is important in order to correctly predict ecosystem sensitivity to climate change. Our research site was a low density and low LAI (0.8) semi-arid (P=523±180 mm yr-1) savanna site, combined of oaks and grass, and located at Tonzi ranch, California. Measurements of carbon and water fluxes above and below the tree canopy using eddy covariance and supplementary measurements have been made since 2001. Measured fluxes were compared to modeled based on two bio-meteorological process-oriented ecosystem models: BEPS and 3D-CAONAK. Our results show that IAV in P was large, and standard deviation (STD) was 38% of the average. Accordingly, the wet soil period (measured volumetric water content > 8%) varied between 156 days in dry years to 301 days in wet years. IAV of the vapor fluxes were lower than that of P (STD was 17% for the trees and 23% for the floor components), suggesting on ecosystem buffering to changes in P. The timing of grass green up

  14. Inter-annual variability of air mass and acidified pollutants transboundary exchange in the north-eastern part of the EANET region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gromov, Sergey A.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey S.

    2016-04-01

    ]. This dataset provides comprehensive monthly statistics on the wind meteorological regime at the stations of interest in a given range of altitudes. Based on long-term source observational data, the dataset is assumed being representative up to date, which allowed us to estimate monthly pollutant fluxes for the years 2006-2008 over segments of the Russian border and its whole [4]. In the current phase of our study, we calculate the inter-annual variations in the transboundary pollutant fluxes for 2000-2012 using longer-term EANET data and transient changes in air mass fluxes derived from the meteorological wind fields from ERA INTERIM re-analysis [5]. We gauge similar average air transport terms and dynamics from the statistical and reanalysis data, which bolsters our earlier findings. The reanalysis data, being naturally more variable, convolutes the variations in net air fluxes and pollutant concentrations into several episodes we emphasise, in addition to the integral pollutant transfer terms we estimate. At last, we discuss on the possibility of climate change effect on the flux strength and dynamics together with regional air quality tendencies in North-East Asia countries. References: Izrael, Yu.A., et al.: Monitoring of the Transboundary Air Pollution Transport. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 303 p., 187 (in Russian). Akimoto H., et al.: Periodic Report of the State of Acid Deposition in East Asia. Part I: Regional Assessment. EANET-UNEP/RRC.AP-ADORC, 258 p., 2006. Brukhan, F.F.: Aeroclimatic Characteristics of the Mean Winds over USSR (ed. Ignatjushina E.N.). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 54 p., 1984 (in Russian). Gromov S.A., et al.: First-order evaluation of transboundary pollution fluxes in areas of EANET stations in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. EANET Science Bulletin, vol. 3, pp. 195-203, 2013. Dee, D. P., et al.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi: 10

  15. Academic Calendar Change Impact on Enrollment Patterns and Instructional Outcomes. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coleman, Daniel; And Others

    The effects of a calendar change from the quarter system to the semester system on enrollment patterns, student credit hour productivity, grading patterns, and course completion patterns were investigated. Enrollment and grade pattern data were collected for nine Florida public universities and Iowa State University, for 1980-1982. Additionally, a…

  16. Landscape-level movement patterns by lions in western Serengeti: comparing the influence of inter-specific competitors, habitat attributes and prey availability.

    PubMed

    Kittle, Andrew M; Bukombe, John K; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Mduma, Simon A R; Fryxell, John M

    2016-01-01

    Where apex predators move on the landscape influences ecosystem structure and function and is therefore key to effective landscape-level management and species-specific conservation. However the factors underlying predator distribution patterns within functional ecosystems are poorly understood. Predator movement should be sensitive to the spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors, spatial variation in prey density, and landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability. We investigated the relative role of these fundamental factors on seasonal resource utilization by a globally endangered apex carnivore, the African lion (Panthera leo) in Tanzania's Serengeti National Park. Lion space use was represented by novel landscape-level, modified utilization distributions (termed "localized density distributions") created from telemetry relocations of individual lions from multiple neighbouring prides. Spatial patterns of inter-specific competitors were similarly determined from telemetry re-locations of spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), this system's primary competitor for lions; prey distribution was derived from 18 months of detailed census data; and remote sensing data was used to represent relevant habitat attributes. Lion space use was consistently influenced by landscape attributes that increase individual prey vulnerability to predation. Wet season activity, when available prey were scarce, was concentrated near embankments, which provide ambush opportunities, and dry season activity, when available prey were abundant, near remaining water sources where prey occurrence is predictable. Lion space use patterns were positively associated with areas of high prey biomass, but only in the prey abundant dry season. Finally, at the broad scale of this analysis, lion and hyena space use was positively correlated in the comparatively prey-rich dry season and unrelated in the wet season, suggesting lion movement was unconstrained by the spatial patterns

  17. Molecular phylogenetics of Micromeria (Lamiaceae) in the Canary Islands, diversification and inter-island colonization patterns inferred from nuclear genes.

    PubMed

    Puppo, Pamela; Curto, Manuel; Gusmão-Guedes, Joana; Cochofel, Jaqueline; Pérez de Paz, Pedro Luis; Bräuchler, Christian; Meimberg, Harald

    2015-08-01

    Here we reconstruct the evolutionary history of Micromeria in the Canary Islands using eight nuclear markers. Our results show two centers of diversification for Micromeria, one in the eastern islands Gran Canaria and Lanzarote, the other in the western islands, Tenerife, La Palma and El Hierro. Suggested directions of inter-island colonization are the following: Gran Canaria to Lanzarote and La Gomera; Tenerife to La Palma (from the paleoisland of Teno), to El Hierro (from the younger, central part), and to La Gomera and Madeira (from the paleoislands). Colonization of La Gomera probably occurred several times from Gran Canaria and Tenerife. The taxonomic implications of these results are discussed. Incongruence among the different markers was evaluated and, using next generation sequencing, we investigated if this incongruence is due to gene duplication. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Factors influencing inter-annual variability of growing season optimum gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in a semi-arid savanna ecosystem: A case study of Skukuza, South Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brummer, C.; Mukwashi, K.; Falge, E. M.; Mudau, A.; Odipo, V.; Schmullius, C.; Lenfers, U.; Thiel-Clemen, T.; Thomas, C. K.; Kutsch, W. L.; Scholes, R. J.; Berger, C.

    2016-12-01

    The goal of this study was to improve understanding of factors affecting temporal carbon metabolism at a natural savanna site near Skukuza, South Africa. We investigated inter-annual variability of optimum gross primary production (GPPopt) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) from 2000-2014. GPPopt refers to maximum total amount of carbon fixed by plants per unit area and time. Carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes have been measured continuously at a 16 m tower at Skukuza using eddy covariance technique since 2000. The GPPopt and Reco parameters were derived from modelled light response curve fits of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for summer `vegetative' periods. Hydro-ecological years (HEY) were stratified into functional seasons and data were classified into three soil moisture (SM) classes, i.e. wet (SM ≥ 9%), drying (6%< SM ≤9%) and dry periods (SM ≤ 6%), in order to separate biologically functional periods from periods of water constraints. For each SM class data were sub-classified into four air temperature (Tair) classes to separate Tair effects on NEE response to light. Wet periods recorded higher GPPopt and Reco estimates compared to drying periods. The curve fits for dry periods were not significant. We found high variability of GPPopt and Reco from `summer' to `summer' of each HEY. Wet period GPPopt of 2008/2009 and 2010/2011 were highest with 29.2±1.8 and 32.7±1.6 µmol CO2 m-2s-1, respectively, whilst 2006/2007 recorded the lowest GPPopt of 6.5±1.3 µmol CO2 m-2s-1 for Tair class `20°Cair≤25°C'. A similar pattern for Reco trend was observed. We also investigated the influence of rainfall distribution and amount, vapour pressure deficit, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) on the GPPopt and Reco trends and found a high correlation between GPPopt and variables NDVI and EVI. Our findings have implications in understanding causality and temporal dynamics of GPPopt and Reco in precipitation pulse-driven semi

  19. A comparison of hemisphere-specific training pattern in Inter-limb Learning Transfer (ILT) for stroke patients with hemiparesis.

    PubMed

    Yoo, In-gyu; Jung, Min-ye; Yoo, Eun-young; Park, Ji-hyuk; Kang, Dae-hyuk; Lee, Jin

    2014-01-01

    Stroke patients have major problems with impaired upper-extremity function. Unfortunately, many patients do not experience a full recovery from movement deficits in the upper extremities. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of inter-limb learning transfer (ILT) to the contralateral upper limb after both hemisphere-specific and -unspecific ipsilateral upper limb training for stroke patients with hemiparesis. Twenty-four stroke patients with hemiparesis participated. The hemisphere-specific training group performed reaching movements in a customized training setting in which non-dominant limb training participants began from a single starting location and proceeded to one of three target locations (1S3T condition); the dominant limb training participants started from one of three starting locations and proceeded to a single target location (3S1T condition). The hemisphere-unspecific training group performed these movements starting under reverse-start and target conditions. The non-dominant to dominant limb transfer, the hemisphere-specific training group performance time decreased significantly as compared with the pre-training session (p < 0.05). Also, the isolation contraction ratio was decreased significantly from that of the pre-training session in the biceps brachii muscles and increased significantly in the upper trapezius muscles (p < 0.05). And, dominant to non-dominant limb transfer in the hemisphere-specific training group significantly increased RMS amplitudes from the pre-training session in the biceps brachii and triceps muscles (p < 0.05). Also, the isolation contraction ratio was increased significantly from that of the pre-training session in the biceps brachii muscles and decreased significantly in the upper trapezius muscles (p < 0.05). However, the hemisphere-unspecific training group showed no significant differences in inter-limb learning transfer (ILT). The transfer of hemisphere-specific training from one arm to the

  20. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Carbon Dioxide Exchange over an Alpine Grassland in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

    PubMed

    Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

    2016-01-01

    This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season.

  1. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations in Carbon Dioxide Exchange over an Alpine Grassland in the Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    PubMed Central

    Shang, Lunyu; Zhang, Yu; Lyu, Shihua; Wang, Shaoying

    2016-01-01

    This work analyzed carbon dioxide exchange and its controlling factors over an alpine grassland on the eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The main results show that air temperature and photosynthetically active radiation are two dominant factors controlling daily gross primary production. Soil temperature and soil water content are the main factors controlling ecosystem respiration. Canopy photosynthetic activity is also responsible for the variation of daily ecosystem respiration other than environmental factors. No clear correlation between net ecosystem exchange and environmental factors was observed at daily scale. Temperature sensitive coefficient was observed to increase with larger soil water content. High values of temperature sensitive coefficient occurred during the periods when soil water content was high and grass was active. Annual integrated net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration were -191, 1145 and 954 g C m-2 for 2010, and -250, 975 and 725 g C m-2 for 2011, respectively. Thus, this alpine grassland was a moderate carbon sink in both of the two years. Compared to alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, this alpine grassland demonstrated a much greater potential for carbon sequestration than others. Annual precipitation is a dominant factor controlling the variation of annual net ecosystem exchange over this grassland. The difference in gross primary production between the two years was not caused by the variation in annual precipitation. Instead, air temperature and the length of growing season had an important impact on annual gross primary production. Variation of annual ecosystem respiration was closely related to annual gross primary production and soil water content during the growing season. PMID:27861616

  2. Inter-Segmental Coordination Pattern in Patients with Anterior Cruciate Ligament Deficiency during a Single-Step Descent.

    PubMed

    Nematollahi, Mohammadreza; Razeghi, Mohsen; Mehdizadeh, Sina; Tabatabaee, Hamidreza; Piroozi, Soraya; Rojhani Shirazi, Zahra; Rafiee, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Anterior cruciate ligament injury is a debilitating pathology which may alter lower limb coordination pattern in both intact and affected lower extremities during activities of daily living. Emerging evidence supports the notion that kinematic variables may not be a good indicator to differentiate patients with anterior cruciate ligament deficiency during step descent task. The aim of the present study was to examine alterations in kinematics as well as coordination patterns and coordination variability of both limbs of these patients during a single step descent task. Continuous relative phase technique was used to measure coordination pattern and coordination variability between a group of anterior cruciate ligament deficient (n = 23) and a healthy control group (n = 23). A third order polynomial Curve fitting was utilized to provide a curve that best fitted to the data points of coordination pattern and coordination variability of the healthy control group. This was considered as a reference to compare to that of patient group using nonlinear regression analysis. The results of the present study demonstrated an altered coordination pattern of the supporting shank-thigh and the stepping foot-shank couplings in anterior cruciate ligament deficient subjects. It was further noticed that there was an increased coordination variability in foot-shank and shank-thigh couplings of both supporting and stepping legs. There was no significant difference in the hip, knee and ankle joints kinematics in either side of these patients. Anterior cruciate ligament deficient individuals showed altered strategies in both intact and affected legs, with increased coordination variability. Kinematic data did not indicate any significant difference between the two groups. It could be concluded that more sophisticated dynamic approach such as continuous relative phase would uncover discrepancies between the healthy and anterior cruciate ligament deficient individuals.

  3. ENSO- and PDO-modulated SST Reconstructions From the Anthropocene Into the Last 2 Millennia: Planktonic Foraminiferal Mg/Ca Evidence at Inter-annual Resolution From San Lázaro Basin (NE Pacific)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mortyn, P.; Martinez-Boti, M. A.; Herguera, J. C.

    2008-12-01

    On inter-annual time scales, the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic phenomenon is the largest driver of change in the ocean-atmosphere system. As such, it is a primary interest to understand how modern global warming has impacted ENSO, and how the marine sedimentary archive records this linkage in the southern California Current (CC). This would allow detailed comparison against other high-resolution archives, such as corals, and an improved ability to interpret past events as potential analogs for the future of ENSO. Furthermore, such reconstructions in recent millennia are crucial, since they record pre- anthropogenic climates under interglacial (warm) boundary conditions that allow us to characterize the nature of modern influence on this system. Here we present sub-decadal reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST), derived from the Mg/Ca ratio of the shallow-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber. The samples come from San Lázaro Basin in the southern Baja California continental margin (25° N; 112° W), situated beneath the dynamic boundary of the cool eastern Pacific boundary CC of northern origin, and the warm subtropical water masses of southern origin. The bottom of this coastal basin (maximum depth of 540m) is bathed by oxygen-depleted waters that flow over a shallow sill at 370m. High levels of primary production and export of biogenic particles to depth ensue from strong seasonal upwelling processes during spring to early summer. This combination of high sediment production and preservation in an area very sensitive to ENSO impact allows for a high-resolution reconstruction of inter-annual climatic phenomena in this unique eastern boundary current setting. For our highest temporal detail, we examine 2 cores at interannual resolution for the past ~90 years, which we use to validate our proxy against instrumental SSTs. This variability is effectively traced by Mg/Ca in G. ruber, which has an affinity for warmer waters

  4. Treatment patterns and annual drug costs of biologic therapies across indications from the Humana commercial database.

    PubMed

    Howe, Andrew; Eyck, Laura Ten; Dufour, Robert; Shah, Neel; Harrison, David J

    2014-12-01

    A variety of biologic therapies are currently used for the treatment of inflammatory autoimmune diseases, including rheumatoid arthritis (RA), psoriasis (PsO), psoriatic arthritis (PsA), and ankylosing spondylitis (AS). These diseases require long-term treatment, and information regarding the use and costs of biologic therapies can be valuable in making treatment and formulary decisions for clinicians and payers. To evaluate current utilization and annual costs of biologic therapies for treatment of RA, PsO, PsA, and AS in a real-world setting. This retrospective observational cohort analysis utilized data from the Humana commercial claims database. Eligible patients had an index (first) claim between February 1, 2008, and September 30, 2011, for abatacept, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, infliximab, rituximab, or ustekinumab and a diagnosis of RA, PsO, PsA, AS, or combination of these diseases. Patients with and without a claim for their index therapy within 180 days prior to their index dates were defined as continuing and new patients, respectively. Outcomes included 1-year rates of persistence; rates of restarting, discontinuing, or switching for patients who were not persistent; and annual costs. Costs were based on dose and the October 2013 wholesale acquisition cost (WAC). Total expenditure was calculated as the (total index biologic drug utilization × WAC) + (number of administrations × Medicare fee schedule) + Σ(biologic dose after discontinuation × associated WAC price). Of 2,721 patients analyzed, 1,308 (48%) were new patients, and 1,413 (52%) were continuing patients. Across approved indications, the most commonly used biologics were adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab. Continuing patients had higher rates of persistence on index therapy than new patients. The mean annual cost [SD] per treated patient for new patients across all indications was numerically lowest for adalimumab ($20,916 [$7,572]), followed by infliximab

  5. Reconciling patterns of inter-ocean molecular variance from four classes of molecular markers in blue marlin (Makaira nigricans).

    PubMed

    Buonaccorsi, V P; McDowell, J R; Graves, J E

    2001-05-01

    Different classes of molecular markers occasionally yield discordant views of population structure within a species. Here, we examine the distribution of molecular variance from 14 polymorphic loci comprising four classes of molecular markers within approximately 400 blue marlin individuals (Makaira nigricans). Samples were collected from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans over 5 years. Data from five hypervariable tetranucleotide microsatellite loci and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis of whole molecule mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) were reported and compared with previous analyses of allozyme and single-copy nuclear DNA (scnDNA) loci. Temporal variance in allele frequencies was nonsignificant in nearly all cases. Mitochondrial and microsatellite loci revealed striking phylogeographic partitioning among Atlantic and Pacific Ocean samples. A large cluster of alleles was present almost exclusively in Atlantic individuals at one microsatellite locus and for mtDNA, suggesting that, if gene flow occurs, it is likely to be unidirectional from Pacific to Atlantic oceans. Mitochondrial DNA inter-ocean divergence (FST) was almost four times greater than microsatellite or combined nuclear divergences including allozyme and scnDNA markers. Estimates of Neu varied by five orders of magnitude among marker classes. Using mathematical and computer simulation approaches, we show that substantially different distributions of FST are expected from marker classes that differ in mode of inheritance and rate of mutation, without influence of natural selection or sex-biased dispersal. Furthermore, divergent FST values can be reconciled by quantifying the balance between genetic drift, mutation and migration. These results illustrate the usefulness of a mitochondrial analysis of population history, and relative precision of nuclear estimates of gene flow based on a mean of several loci.

  6. Proceedings of the Second Annual Symposium on Mathematical Pattern Recognition and Image Analysis Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guseman, L. F., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

    1984-01-01

    Several papers addressing image analysis and pattern recognition techniques for satellite imagery are presented. Texture classification, image rectification and registration, spatial parameter estimation, and surface fitting are discussed.

  7. Whisker isotopic signature depicts migration patterns and multi-year intra- and inter-individual foraging strategies in fur seals

    PubMed Central

    Cherel, Y.; Kernaléguen, L.; Richard, P.; Guinet, C.

    2009-01-01

    The movement and dietary history of individuals can be studied using stable isotope records in archival keratinous tissues. Here, we present a chronology of temporally fine-scale data on the trophic niche of otariid seals by measuring the isotopic signature of serially sampled whiskers. Whiskers of male Antarctic fur seals breeding at the Crozet Islands showed synchronous and regular oscillations in both their δ13C and δ15N values that are likely to represent their annual migrations over the long term (mean 4.8 years). At the population level, male Antarctic fur seals showed substantial variation in both δ13C and δ15N values, occupying nearly all the ‘isotopic space’ created by the diversity of potential oceanic habitats (from high Antarctica to the subtropics) and prey (from Antarctic krill to subantarctic and subtropical mesopelagic fishes). At the individual level, whisker isotopic signatures depict a large diversity of foraging strategies. Some seals remained in either subantarctic or Antarctic waters, while the migratory cycle of most animals encompassed a wide latitudinal gradient where they fed on different prey. The isotopic signature of whiskers, therefore, revealed new multi-year foraging strategies of male Antarctic fur seals and is a powerful tool for investigating the ecological niche during cryptic stages of mammals' life. PMID:19793740

  8. Annual extreme water levels from tide gauges: Contributing factors and geographic patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merrifield, M. A.; Genz, A.; Kontoes, C.; Marra, J.

    2012-12-01

    Hourly time series from a global set of tide gauges are used to construct annual maximum water levels at each station. The high water levels are broken down into a predicted tidal component and a non-tidal residual, that is further separated into: (1) a seasonal component, (2) a low-frequency residual that accounts for non-seasonal sea level variability at time scales greater than a month, and (3) a high-frequency residual that captures short-term changes due to storms and other oceanographic processes. The mean annual extreme water level is well described by the total water level variance (tide plus non-tidal residual) at each station. Water level variance on a continuous, global scale is defined using a global tide model, sea surface height from satellite altimetry, and atmospheric forcing fields. The variance fields are combined to produce a global map of extreme water levels that compares well with tide gauge extremes at each station location. The relative importance of the tides and the non-tidal residual components to annual extreme water levels is specified.

  9. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community.

    PubMed

    Skaer Thomason, Meghan J; Rice, Kevin J

    2017-01-01

    It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented), seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition.

  10. Spatial Pattern and Scale Influence Invader Demographic Response to Simulated Precipitation Change in an Annual Grassland Community

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    It is important to predict which invasive species will benefit from future changes in climate, and thereby identify those invaders that need particular attention and prioritization of management efforts. Because establishment, persistence, and spread determine invasion success, this prediction requires detailed demographic information. Explicit study of the impact of pattern on demographic response is particularly important for species that are naturally patchy, such as the invasive grass, Aegilops triuncialis. In the northern California Coast Range, where climate change may increase or decrease mean annual rainfall, we conducted a field experiment to understand the interaction of climate change and local-scale patterning on the demography of A. triuncialis. We manipulated precipitation (reduced, ambient, or augmented), seed density, and seeding pattern. Demographic and environmental data were collected for three years following initial seeding. Pattern and scale figure prominently in the demographic response of A. triuncialis to precipitation manipulation. Pattern interacts with precipitation and seeding density in its influence on per-plant seed output. Although per-plot seed production was highest when seeds were not aggregated, per-plant seed output was higher in aggregated patches. Results suggest aggregation of invasive A. triuncialis reduces the detrimental impact of interspecific competition in its invaded community, and that interspecific competition per se has a stronger impact than intraspecific competition. PMID:28046090

  11. Mean Annual Precipitation Explains Spatiotemporal Patterns of Cenozoic Mammal Beta Diversity and Latitudinal Diversity Gradients in North America

    PubMed Central

    Fraser, Danielle; Hassall, Christopher; Gorelick, Root; Rybczynski, Natalia

    2014-01-01

    Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma – present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity) is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimated from paleosols (∼450 mm/year) and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs) increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential. PMID:25203658

  12. Mean annual precipitation explains spatiotemporal patterns of Cenozoic mammal beta diversity and latitudinal diversity gradients in North America.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Danielle; Hassall, Christopher; Gorelick, Root; Rybczynski, Natalia

    2014-01-01

    Spatial diversity patterns are thought to be driven by climate-mediated processes. However, temporal patterns of community composition remain poorly studied. We provide two complementary analyses of North American mammal diversity, using (i) a paleontological dataset (2077 localities with 2493 taxon occurrences) spanning 21 discrete subdivisions of the Cenozoic based on North American Land Mammal Ages (36 Ma--present), and (ii) climate space model predictions for 744 extant mammals under eight scenarios of future climate change. Spatial variation in fossil mammal community structure (β diversity) is highest at intermediate values of continental mean annual precipitation (MAP) estimated from paleosols (∼ 450 mm/year) and declines under both wetter and drier conditions, reflecting diversity patterns of modern mammals. Latitudinal gradients in community change (latitudinal turnover gradients, aka LTGs) increase in strength through the Cenozoic, but also show a cyclical pattern that is significantly explained by MAP. In general, LTGs are weakest when continental MAP is highest, similar to modern tropical ecosystems in which latitudinal diversity gradients are weak or undetectable. Projections under modeled climate change show no substantial change in β diversity or LTG strength for North American mammals. Our results suggest that similar climate-mediated mechanisms might drive spatial and temporal patterns of community composition in both fossil and extant mammals. We also provide empirical evidence that the ecological processes on which climate space models are based are insufficient for accurately forecasting long-term mammalian response to anthropogenic climate change and inclusion of historical parameters may be essential.

  13. The dynamics of avian influenza in western Arctic snow geese: implications for annual and migratory infection patterns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Hall, Jeffrey S.; Brown, Justin D.; Goldberg, Diana R.; Ip, Hon S.; Baranyuk, Vasily V.

    2015-01-01

    Wild water birds are the natural reservoir for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, our ability to investigate the epizootiology of AIV in these migratory populations is challenging, and despite intensive worldwide surveillance, remains poorly understood. We conducted a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis in Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese Chen caerulescens to investigate AIV serology and infection patterns. We collected nearly 3,000 sera samples from snow geese at 2 breeding colonies in Russia and Canada during 1993-1996 and swab samples from > 4,000 birds at wintering and migration areas in the United States during 2006-2011. We found seroprevalence and annual seroconversion varied considerably among years. Seroconversion and infection rates also differed between snow goose breeding colonies and wintering areas, suggesting that AIV exposure in this gregarious waterfowl species is likely occurring during several phases (migration, wintering and potentially breeding areas) of the annual cycle. We estimated AIV antibody persistence was longer (14 months) in female geese compared to males (6 months). This relatively long period of AIV antibody persistence suggests that subtype-specific serology may be an effective tool for detection of exposure to subtypes associated with highly-pathogenic AIV. Our study provides further evidence of high seroprevalence in Arctic goose populations, and estimates of annual AIV seroconversion and antibody persistence for North American waterfowl. We suggest future AIV studies include serology to help elucidate the epizootiological dynamics of AIV in wild bird populations.

  14. Intra- and inter-group coordination patterns reveal collective behaviors of football players near the scoring zone.

    PubMed

    Duarte, Ricardo; Araújo, Duarte; Freire, Luís; Folgado, Hugo; Fernandes, Orlando; Davids, Keith

    2012-12-01

    This study examined emergent coordination processes in collective patterns of behavior in 3 vs 3 sub-phases of the team sport of association football near the scoring zone. We identified coordination tendencies for the centroid (i.e., team center) and surface area (i.e., occupied space) of each sub-group of performers (n=20 plays). We also compared these kinematic variables at three key moments of play using mixed-model ANOVAs. The centroids demonstrated a strong symmetric relation that described the coordinated attacking/defending actions of performers in this sub-phase of play. Conversely, analysis of the surface area of each team did not reveal a clear coordination pattern between sub-groups. But the difference in the occupied area between the attacking and defending sub-groups significantly increased over time. Findings emphasized that major changes in sub-group behaviors occurred just before an assisted pass was made (i.e., leading to a loss of stability in the 3 vs 3 sub-phases).

  15. Annual patterns and budget of CO2 flux in an Alaskan arctic tussock tundra ecosystem at Atqasuk, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oechel, W. C.; Kalhori, A. A.; Burba, G. G.; Gioli, B.

    2013-12-01

    Arctic ecosystem functioning is not only critically affected by climate change, but also has the potential for major positive feedbacks on climate. There is however relatively little information available on the role, patterns, and vulnerabilities of CO2 fluxes during the non-summer seasons. Presented here is a year-around study of CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan Arctic tussock tundra ecosystem. Also presented are key environmental controls on CO2 fluxes as well as possible impacts of likely changes in season timing. This is aided by a new empirical quantification of seasons in the Arctic based on net radiation, which can help describe seasonal responses to greenhouse gas fluxes under climate change. The fluxes were computed using standard FluxNet methodology and corrected using standard WPL density terms, adjusted for influences of instrument surface heating. The results showed that the non-summer season comprises a significant source of carbon to the atmosphere. The summer period was a net sink of 10.83 g C m-2 yr-1, while the non-summer seasons released more than four times the CO2 uptake observed in the summer, resulting in a net annual source of 37.6 g C m-2 yr-1 to the atmosphere. This shows a change in this region of the Arctic from a long-term annual sink of CO2 from the atmosphere to an annual source of CO2 from the terrestrial ecosystem and soils to the atmosphere. The results presented here demonstrate that nearly continuous observations may be required in order to accurately calculate the annual NEE of Arctic ecosystems, and to build predictive understanding that can be used to estimate, with confidence, Arctic fluxes under future conditions. Daily CO2 fluxes over the year, average daily net radiation, average daily PAR, average daily air temperature and average daily soil respiration (at -5 cm).

  16. Clinical venous thromboembolism following joint surgery: effect of extended thromboprophylaxis on its annual frequency and postoperative pattern over 22 years.

    PubMed

    Dahl, Ola E; Gudmundsen, Tor E; Pripp, Are H; Aanesen, Joakim J

    2014-03-01

    We describe annual incidences and 6-month postoperative patterns of clinical venous thromboembolism (VTE) in 9078 patients undergoing major joint surgery in a Scandinavian hospital. In cohort I (1989-1999), low-molecular-weight heparin thromboprophylaxis for 7 to 10 days was uniformly introduced, 5-week thromboprophylaxis becoming routine after total hip replacement (THR), partially applied after hip fracture surgery (HFS), but not used after total knee replacement (TKR) thereafter (2003-2011; cohort II). Mean annual VTE incidence was lower in cohort II than in cohort I after THR and HFS but not after TKR. In cohort I, the cumulative VTE incidence increased sharply during the first 5 postoperative weeks in all groups, subsequently plateauing up to 6 months postsurgery. In cohort II, this incidence remained low and stable during 5 weeks post-THR, rising gradually up to 6 months, with a comparable but less pronounced pattern following HFS but not TKR. In conclusion, the VTE risk after major joint surgery seems to persist after 5- and 1-week prophylaxis in patients undergoing hip surgery and TKR, respectively.

  17. Dealing with Variability: Inter and Intra-annual Climate Variability and its Impacts on Water Availability in the 19th Century Northeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloysius, N. R.; Witherell, B. B.; Allen, T. L.; Arrigo, J. S.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2009-12-01

    Freshwater plays a critical role in preserving the biological and hydrological functions of the terrestrial ecosystems that sustain civilization. Hydrologic processes shape the distribution, structure, and dynamics of biological systems, while the feedbacks from biological systems impact the hydrologic cycle. Climate is the main driver that adds dynamics to the hydrologic cycle. In order to identify the changes and variability in the Northeast region’s climate and to understand their impacts on the hydrological cycle, we are conducting an assessment of the region’s climate. Annual and monthly time series of precipitation and temperature data collected for one hundred locations in the region, spanning from Maine to Virginia, during the period 1800 to 1920 are analyzed to assess the spatial and temporal variations in climate. It has been reported that the region’s climate during the 19th century is largely modulated by climatic oceanicity and the sunspot rhythm, and, that human influence did not have significant impact on the regional climate. Our preliminary findings do not show significant variations in the mean annual climate, but show variations in intra-annual climate, particularly monthly precipitation. Based on the review of historical documents, the intra-annual variation in precipitation was a concern of water resource planners during the 19th century. The present research attempts to bring out linkages between spatial and temporal variations in the regional climate and water availability. Additional information on land cover, measured and modeled runoff for a selected location will be used as case study to highlight climate variability and its impact on water availability.

  18. Hydrology of the North Klondike River: carbon export, water balance and inter-annual climate influences within a sub-alpine permafrost catchment.

    PubMed

    Lapp, Anthony; Clark, Ian; Macumber, Andrew; Patterson, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Arctic and sub-arctic watersheds are undergoing significant changes due to recent climate warming and degrading permafrost, engendering enhanced monitoring of arctic rivers. Smaller catchments provide understanding of discharge, solute flux and groundwater recharge at the process level that contributes to an understanding of how larger arctic watersheds are responding to climate change. The North Klondike River, located in west central Yukon, is a sub-alpine permafrost catchment, which maintains an active hydrological monitoring station with a record of >40 years. In addition to being able to monitor intra-annual variability, this data set allows for more complex analysis of streamflow records. Streamflow data, geochemistry and stable isotope data for 2014 show a groundwater-dominated system, predominantly recharged during periods of snowmelt. Radiocarbon is shown to be a valuable tracer of soil zone recharge processes and carbon sources. Winter groundwater baseflow contributes 20 % of total annual discharge, and accounts for up to 50 % of total river discharge during the spring and summer months. Although total stream discharge remains unchanged, mean annual groundwater baseflow has increased over the 40-year monitoring period. Wavelet analysis reveals a catchment that responds to El Niño and longer solar cycles, as well as climatic shifts such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dedicated to Professor Peter Fritz on the occasion of his 80th birthday.

  19. Dosimetric consequences of inter-fraction breathing-pattern variation on radiotherapy with personalized motion-assessed margins.

    PubMed

    Kavanagh, A; McQuaid, D; Evans, P; Webb, S; Guckenberger, M

    2011-11-21

    The data from eight patients who had undergone stereotactic body radiotherapy were selected due to their 4D-CT planning scans showing that their tumours had respiratory induced motion trajectories of large amplitude (greater than 9 mm in cranio-caudal direction). Radiotherapy plans with personalized motion-assessed margins were generated for these eight patients. The margins were generated by inverse 4D planning on an eight-bin phase-sorted 4D-CT scan. The planning was done on an in-house software system with a non-rigid registration stage being completed using freely available software. The resultant plans were then recalculated on a 4D-CT scan taken later during the course of treatment. Simulated image-guided patient set-up was used to align the geometric centres of the tumour region and minimize any misalignment between the two reconstructions. In general, the variation in the patient breathing patterns was found to be very small. Consequently, the degradation of the mean dose to the tumour region was found to be around a few percent (<3%) and hence was not a large effect.

  20. Annual primary production: Patterns and mechanisms of change in a nutrient-rich tidal ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jassby, Alan D.; Cloern, James E.; Cole, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    Although nutrient supply often underlies long-term changes in aquatic primary production, other regulatory processes can be important. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a complex of tidal waterways forming the landward portion of the San Francisco Estuary, has ample nutrient supplies, enabling us to examine alternate regulatory mechanisms over a 21-yr period. Delta-wide primary productivity was reconstructed from historical water quality data for 1975–1995. Annual primary production averaged 70 g C m−2, but it varied by over a factor of five among years. At least four processes contributed to this variability: (1) invasion of the clam Potamocorbula amurensis led to a persistent decrease in phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) after 1986; (2) a long-term decline in total suspended solids—probably at least partly because of upstream dam construction—increased water transparency and phytoplankton growth rate; (3) river inflow, reflecting climate variability, affected biomass through fluctuations in flushing and growth rates through fluctuations in total suspended solids; and (4) an additional pathway manifesting as a long-term decline in winter phytoplankton biomass has been identified, but its genesis is uncertain. Overall, the Delta lost 43% in annual primary production during the period. Given the evidence for food limitation of primary consumers, these findings provide a partial explanation for widespread Delta species declines over the past few decades. Turbid nutrient-rich systems such as the Delta may be inherently more variable than other tidal systems because certain compensatory processes are absent. Comparisons among systems, however, can be tenuous because conclusions about the magnitude and mechanisms of variability are dependent on length of data record.  

  1. Dismissals of Tenured Faculty for Incompetence: An Analysis of Litigation Patterns. ASHE 1988 Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Helms, Lelia B.; Seal, Julienne

    The status of litigation involving dismissals of tenured faculty for reasons of incompetence, broadly defined, is evaluated. In practice, there is no consensus within higher education as to what constitutes adequate cause based on incompetence for dismissal of faculty members. The following issues are explored: (1) the pattern of increasing…

  2. Inter-annual and geographical variations in the extent of bare ice and dark ice on the Greenland ice sheet derived from MODIS satellite images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimada, Rigen; Takeuchi, Nozomu; Aoki, Teruo

    2016-04-01

    Areas of dark ice have appeared on the Greenland ice sheet every summer in recent years. These are likely to have a great impact on the mass balance of the ice sheet because of their low albedo. We report annual and geographical variations in the bare ice and dark ice areas that appeared on the Greenland Ice Sheet from 2000 to 2014 by using MODIS satellite images. The July monthly mean of the extent of bare ice showed a positive trend over these 15 years, and large annual variability ranging from 89,975 km2 to 279,075 km2, 5% and 16% of the entire ice sheet, respectively. The extent of dark ice also showed a positive trend and varied annually, ranging from 3,575 km2 to 26,975 km2, 4% and 10% of the bare ice extent. These areas are geographically varied, and their expansion is the greatest on the western side, particularly the southwestern side of the ice sheet. The bare ice extent correlates strongly with the monthly mean air temperature in July, suggesting that the extent was determined by snow melt. The dark ice extent also correlates with the air temperature; however, the correlation is weaker. The dark ice extent further correlates negatively with solar radiation. This suggests that the extent of dark ice is not only controlled by snow melt on the ice, but also by changes in the surface structures of the bare ice surface, such as cryoconite holes, which are associated with impurities appearing on the ice surface.

  3. Intra- and inter-annual uranium concentration variability in a Belizean stalagmite controlled by prior aragonite precipitation: A new tool for reconstructing hydro-climate using aragonitic speleothems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jamieson, Robert A.; Baldini, James U. L.; Brett, Marianne J.; Taylor, Jessica; Ridley, Harriet E.; Ottley, Chris J.; Prufer, Keith M.; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Scholz, Denis; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.

    2016-10-01

    Aragonitic speleothems are increasingly utilised as palaeoclimate archives due to their amenability to high precision U-Th dating. Proxy records from fast-growing aragonitic stalagmites, precisely dated to annual timescales, can allow investigation of climatic events occurring on annual or even sub-annual timescales with minimal chronological uncertainty. However, the behaviour of many trace elements, such as uranium, in aragonitic speleothems has not thus far been as well constrained as in calcitic speleothems. Here, we use uranium concentration shifts measured across primary calcite-to-aragonite mineralogical transitions in speleothems to calculate the distribution coefficient of uranium in aragonitic speleothems (derived DU = 3.74 ± 1.13). Because our calculated DU is considerably above 1 increased prior aragonite precipitation due to increased karst water residence time should strongly control stalagmite aragonite U/Ca values. Consequently, uranium concentrations in aragonitic speleothems should act as excellent proxies for effective rainfall. We test this using a high-resolution ICP-MS derived trace element dataset from a Belizean stalagmite. YOK-G is an aragonitic stalagmite from Yok Balum cave in Belize with an extremely robust monthly-resolved chronology built using annual δ13C cycles. We interpret seasonal U/Ca variations in YOK-G as reflecting changes in the amount and seasonality of prior aragonite precipitation driven by variable rainfall amounts. The U/Ca record strongly suggests that modern drying has occurred in Belize, and that this drying was primarily caused by a reduction in wet season rainfall. This is consistent with published stable isotope data from YOK-G also very strongly suggesting modern rainfall reductions, previously interpreted as the result of southward ITCZ displacement. Our results strongly suggest that U/Ca values in aragonitic speleothems are excellent proxies for rainfall variability. This new tool, combined with the

  4. Mesosphere-thermosphere regions coupling with the lower atmosphere through the inter-annual variations of the hydroxyl OH(8-3) bands, the oxygen 557.7 nm and 630.0 nm lines nightglow intensities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didebulidze, Goderdzi; Javakhishvili, Giorgi; Todua, Maya; Toriashvili, Lekso

    2016-04-01

    The characteristics of the inter-annual/seasonal distributions of the mid-latitude nightglow intensities of the mesopause hydroxyl OH(8-3) bands (maximum luminous layer about 87 km), the thermosphere oxygen green 557.7 nm (main maximum of luminous layer in the lower thermosphere at about 95 km) and the red 630.0 nm line (emitted from the ionosphere F2 region with maximum luminous layer about 230-280 km) intensities are considered by observations from Abastumani (41.75 E; 42.82 E). The observed inter-annual variations of the OH bands and green line, along with the maximal values at spring (March-April) and fall (September-October) equinoxial periods which are noticed also from other regions, exhibit maxima in June as well. The red line intensity mainly tends to decrease at equinoxial months, while it is maximal in summer and is accompanied by relatively small increase in June (compared to May and July). Maximal values of OH band and green line intensities in June are observed both in maximum and minimum phases of solar activity. This is considered as a manifestation of the features of upper and lower atmosphere dynamical coupling of this region of the South Caucasus. Such dynamical coupling can involve the ionosphere F2 region and can be accompanied by relative decrease of the red line intensity in June. It is observed that the increase of OH band and green line intensities is accompanied by the red line intensity decrease at the end of March and beginning of April, which also is considered as a manifestation of lower and upper atmosphere dynamical coupling. Acknowledgements: This work has been supported by Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation Grants no. 31/56 and 31/81.

  5. Inter-annual variability in apparent relative production, survival, and growth of juvenile Lost River and shortnose suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2001–15

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burdick, Summer M.; Martin, Barbara A.

    2017-06-15

    Executive SummaryPopulations of the once abundant Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) of the Upper Klamath Basin, decreased so substantially throughout the 20th century that they were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1988. Major landscape alterations, deterioration of water quality, and competition with and predation by exotic species are listed as primary causes of the decreases in populations. Upper Klamath Lake populations are decreasing because fish lost due to adult mortality, which is relatively low for adult Lost River suckers and variable for adult shortnose suckers, are not replaced by new young adult suckers recruiting into known adult spawning aggregations. Catch-at-age and size data indicate that most adult suckers presently in Upper Klamath Lake spawning populations were hatched around 1991. While, a lack of egg production and emigration of young fish (especially larvae) may contribute, catch-at-length and age data indicate high mortality during the first summer or winter of life may be the primary limitation to the recruitment of young adults. The causes of juvenile sucker mortality are unknown.We compiled and analyzed catch, length, age, and species data on juvenile suckers from Upper Klamath Lake from eight prior studies conducted from 2001 to 2015 to examine annual variation in apparent production, survival, and growth of young suckers. We used a combination of qualitative assessments, general linear models, and linear regression to make inferences about annual differences in juvenile sucker dynamics. The intent of this exercise is to provide information that can be compared to annual variability in environmental conditions with the hopes of understanding what drives juvenile sucker population dynamics.Age-0 Lost River suckers generally grew faster than age-0 shortnose suckers, but the difference in growth rates between the two species varied among years. This unsynchronized annual variation in

  6. Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denommee, K. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Droxler, A. W.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful agents of destruction, and understanding climatic controls on TC patterns is of great importance. Over timescales of seasons to several decades, relationships among TC track, frequency, intensity and basin-scale climate changes are well documented by instrumental records. Over centuries to millennia, climate-shift influence on TC regimes remains poorly constrained. To better understand these relationships, records from multiple locations of TC strikes spanning millennia with high temporal resolution are required, but such records are rare. Here we report on a highly detailed sedimentary proxy record of paleo-TC strikes from the Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Our findings provide an important addition to other high-resolution records, which collectively demonstrate that shifts between active and inactive TC regimes have occurred contemporaneously with shifts hemispheric-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as MDR SSTs and NAO mode, rather than with changes in local climate phenomena as has previously been suggested.

  7. Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize.

    PubMed

    Denommee, K C; Bentley, S J; Droxler, A W

    2014-01-27

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful agents of destruction, and understanding climatic controls on TC patterns is of great importance. Over timescales of seasons to several decades, relationships among TC track, frequency, intensity and basin-scale climate changes are well documented by instrumental records. Over centuries to millennia, climate-shift influence on TC regimes remains poorly constrained. To better understand these relationships, records from multiple locations of TC strikes spanning millennia with high temporal resolution are required, but such records are rare. Here we report on a highly detailed sedimentary proxy record of paleo-TC strikes from the Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Our findings provide an important addition to other high-resolution records, which collectively demonstrate that shifts between active and inactive TC regimes have occurred contemporaneously with shifts hemispheric-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as MDR SSTs and NAO mode, rather than with changes in local climate phenomena as has previously been suggested.

  8. Mouse white adipocytes and 3T3-L1 cells display an anomalous pattern of carnitine palmitoyltransferase (CPT) I isoform expression during differentiation. Inter-tissue and inter-species expression of CPT I and CPT II enzymes.

    PubMed Central

    Brown, N F; Hill, J K; Esser, V; Kirkland, J L; Corkey, B E; Foster, D W; McGarry, J D

    1997-01-01

    The outer mitochondrial membrane enzyme carnitine palmitoyltransferase I (CPT I) represents the initial and regulated step in the beta-oxidation of fatty acids. It exists in at least two isoforms, denoted L (liver) and M (muscle) types, with very different kinetic properties and sensitivities to malonyl-CoA. Here we have examined the relative expression of the CPT I isoforms in two different models of adipocyte differentiation and in a number of rat tissues. Adipocytes from mice, hamsters and humans were also evaluated. Primary monolayer cultures of undifferentiated rat preadipocytes expressed solely L-CPT I, but significant levels of M-CPT I emerged after only 3 days of differentiation in vitro; in the mature cell M-CPT I predominated. In sharp contrast, the murine 3T3-L1 preadipocyte expressed essentially exclusively L-CPT I, both in the undifferentiated state and throughout the differentiation process in vitro. This was also true of the mature mouse white fat cell. Fully developed adipocytes from the hamster and human behaved similarly to those of the rat. Thus the mouse white fat cell differs fundamentally from those of the other species examined in terms of tis choice of a key regulatory enzyme in fatty acid metabolism. In contrast, brown adipose tissue from all three rodents displayed the same isoform profiles, each expressing overwhelmingly M-CPT I. Northern blot analysis of other rat tissues established L-CPT I as the dominant isoform not only in liver but also in kidney, lung, ovary, spleen, brain, intestine and pancreatic islets. In addition to its primacy in skeletal muscle, heart and fat, M-CPT I was also found to dominate the testis. The same inter-tissue isoform pattern (with the exception of white fat) was found in the mouse. Taken together, the data bring to light an intriguing divergence between white adipocytes of the mouse and other mammalian species. They also raise a cautionary note that should be considered in the choice of animal model used

  9. Annual Movement Patterns of Endangered Ivory Gulls: The Importance of Sea Ice

    PubMed Central

    Spencer, Nora C.; Gilchrist, H. Grant; Mallory, Mark L.

    2014-01-01

    The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) is an endangered seabird that spends its entire year in the Arctic environment. In the past three decades, threats from various sources have contributed to a >70% decline in Canada. To assess the annual habitat needs of this species, we attached satellite transmitters to 12 ivory gulls on Seymour Island, Nunavut in 2010, which provided up to four breeding seasons of tracking data. Analysis of migratory behaviour revealed considerable individual variation of post-breeding migratory route selection. Ivory gulls traveled a median of 74 days during post-breeding migration, but only 18 days during pre-breeding migration. In contrast to predictions, ivory gulls did not use the Greenland coast during migratory periods. Ivory gulls overwintered near the ice edge in Davis Strait, but also used the Labrador Sea in late February and March. We suggest that the timing of formation and recession and extent of sea ice plays a large role in ivory gull distribution and migratory timing. PMID:25551556

  10. Origins of streamflow in a crystalline basement catchment in a sub-humid Sudanian zone: The Donga basin (Benin, West Africa): Inter-annual variability of water budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Séguis, L.; Kamagaté, B.; Favreau, G.; Descloitres, M.; Seidel, J.-L.; Galle, S.; Peugeot, C.; Gosset, M.; Le Barbé, L.; Malinur, F.; Van Exter, S.; Arjounin, M.; Boubkraoui, S.; Wubda, M.

    2011-05-01

    SummaryDuring the last quarter of the 20th century, West Africa underwent a particularly intense and generalized drought. During this period, the biggest drops in streamflow were observed in the Sudanian zone rather than in the Sahelian zone, but the reasons are still poorly understood. In 2000, a meso-scale hydrological observatory was set up in the sub-humid Sudanian zone of the Upper Ouémé Valley (Benin). Three embedded catchments of 12-586 km 2 located on a crystalline bedrock were intensively instrumented to document the different terms of the water budget and to identify the main streamflow generating processes and base-flow mechanisms at different scales. Geophysical, hydrological and geochemical data were collected throughout the catchments from 2002 to 2006. Crossing these data helped define their hydrological functioning. The region has seasonal streamflow, and the permanent groundwater in the weathered mantle does not drain to rivers, instead, seasonal perched groundwaters are the major contributor to annual streamflow. The perched groundwaters are mainly located in seasonally waterlogged sandy layers in the headwater bottom-lands called bas-fonds in French-speaking West Africa of 1st order streams. During the period 2003-2006, regolith groundwater recharge ranged between 10% and 15% of the annual rainfall depth. Depletion of permanent groundwater during the dry season is probably explained by local evapotranspiration which was seen not to be limited to gallery forests. During the 4-year study period, a reduction of 20% in annual rainfall led to a 50% reduction in streamflow. This reduction was observed in the two components of the flow: direct runoff and drainage of perched groundwater. Thanks to the comprehensive dataset obtained, the results obtained for the Donga experimental catchment are now being extrapolated to the whole upper Ouémé valley, which can be considered as representative of sub-humid Sudanian rivers flowing on a crystalline

  11. Overestimation of soil CO2 fluxes from closed chamber measurements at low atmospheric turbulence biases the diurnal pattern and the annual soil respiration budget

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braendholt, Andreas; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Ibrom, Andreas; Pilegaard, Kim

    2016-04-01

    Precise quantification of the diurnal and seasonal variation of soil respiration (Rs) is crucial to correctly estimate annual soil carbon fluxes as well as to correctly interpret the response of Rs to biotic and abiotic factors on different time scale. In this study we found a systematic effect of low atmospheric turbulence on continuous hourly Rs measurements with closed chambers throughout one year in a temperate Danish beech forest. Using friction velocity (u⋆) measured at the site above the canopy, we filtered out chamber flux data measured at low atmospheric turbulence. The non-filtered data showed a clear diurnal pattern of Rs across all seasons with highest fluxes during night time suggesting an implausible negative temperature sensitivity of Rs. When filtering out data at low turbulence, the annually averaged diurnal pattern changed, such that the highest Rs fluxes were seen during day time, i.e. following the course of soil temperatures. This effect on the diurnal pattern was due to low turbulence primarily occurring during night time. We calculated different annual Rs budgets by filtering out fluxes for different levels of u⋆. The highest annual Rs budget was found when including all data and it decreased with an increasing u⋆ filter threshold. Our results show that Rs was overestimated at low atmospheric turbulence throughout the year and that this overestimation considerably biased the diurnal pattern of Rs and led to an overestimation of the annual Rs budget. Thus we recommend that that any analysis of the diurnal pattern of Rs must consider overestimation of Rs at low atmospheric turbulence, to yield unbiased diurnal patterns. This is crucial when investigating temperature responses and potential links between CO2 production and Rs on a short time scale, but also for correct estimation of annual Rs budgets. Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the free Danish Ministry for Research, Innovation and higher Education, the free Danish Research

  12. Climatic controls on hurricane patterns: a 1200-y near-annual record from Lighthouse Reef, Belize

    PubMed Central

    Denommee, K. C.; Bentley, S. J.; Droxler, A. W.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful agents of destruction, and understanding climatic controls on TC patterns is of great importance. Over timescales of seasons to several decades, relationships among TC track, frequency, intensity and basin-scale climate changes are well documented by instrumental records. Over centuries to millennia, climate-shift influence on TC regimes remains poorly constrained. To better understand these relationships, records from multiple locations of TC strikes spanning millennia with high temporal resolution are required, but such records are rare. Here we report on a highly detailed sedimentary proxy record of paleo-TC strikes from the Blue Hole of Lighthouse Reef, Belize. Our findings provide an important addition to other high-resolution records, which collectively demonstrate that shifts between active and inactive TC regimes have occurred contemporaneously with shifts hemispheric-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such as MDR SSTs and NAO mode, rather than with changes in local climate phenomena as has previously been suggested. PMID:24464265

  13. Analysing the impact of urban areas patterns on the mean annual flow of 43 urbanized catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salavati, B.; Oudin, L.; Furusho, C.; Ribstein, P.

    2015-06-01

    It is often argued that urban areas play a significant role in catchment hydrology, but previous studies reported disparate results of urbanization impacts on stream flow. This might stem either from the difficulty to quantify the historical flow changes attributed to urbanization only (and not climate variability) or from the inability to decipher what type of urban planning is more critical for flows. In this study, we applied a hydrological model on 43 urban catchments in the United States to quantify the flow changes attributable to urbanization. Then, we tried to relate these flow changes to the changes of urban/impervious areas of the catchments. We argue that these spatial changes of urban areas can be more precisely characterized by landscape metrics, which enable analysing the patterns of historical urban growth. Landscape metrics combine the richness (the number) and evenness (the spatial distribution) of patch types represented on the landscape. Urbanization patterns within the framework of patch analysis have been widely studied but, to our knowledge, previous research works had not linked them to catchments hydrological behaviours. Our results showed that the catchments with larger impervious areas and larger mean patch areas are likely to have larger increase of runoff yield.

  14. Distinct structural neural patterns of trait physical and social anhedonia: evidence from cortical thickness, subcortical volumes and inter-regional correlations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yi; Deng, Yi; Fung, Germaine; Liu, Wen-hua; Wei, Xin-hua; Jiang, Xin-qing; Lui, Simon S Y; Cheung, Eric F C; Chan, Raymond C K

    2014-12-30

    Anhedonia is an enduring trait accounting for the reduced capacity to experience pleasure. Few studies have investigated the brain structural features associated with trait anhedonia. In this study, the relationships between cortical thickness, volume of subcortical structures and scores on the Chapman physical and social anhedonia scales were examined in a non-clinical sample (n=72, 35 males). FreeSurfer was used to examine the cortical thickness and the volume of six identified subcortical structures related to trait anhedonia. We found that the cortical thickness of the superior frontal gyrus and the volume of the pallidum in the left hemisphere were correlated with anhedonia scores in both physical and social aspects. Specifically, positive correlations were found between levels of social anhedonia and the thickness of the postcentral and the inferior parietal gyri. Cortico-subcortical inter-correlations between these clusters were also observed. Our findings revealed distinct correlation patterns of neural substrates with trait physical and social anhedonia in a non-clinical sample. These findings contribute to the understanding of the pathologies underlying the anhedonia phenotype in schizophrenia and other psychiatric disorders.

  15. Modelling of INTER-Linkages Between LAND Cover Pattern and Socio-Economic Factors in the Idemili River Basin of South Eastern Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maduekwe, N. I.; Adesina, F. A.

    2014-12-01

    This study explores the inter-relationships between socio-economic factors and land cover pattern in the Idemili River Basin of South Eastern Nigeria. It is based on the concept of coupled human environment systems and focuses on the modelling of community scale relationships between critical land cover parameter and socio-demographic, economic and cultural factors in the basin. The modelling was implemented with pixel level NDVI indicators of vegetation cover density developed from NigeriaSat image with 32m resolution linked to eight indicators of socio-economic factors developed from a household survey of the basin. NDVI and socio-economic data were matched for 25 sampled localities in the basin and their relationships modelled with correlation, regression and Principal Component Analysis statistics. NDVI based image analysis showed a high level of human impact on vegetation. The Model output shows that bivariate relationships between vegetation cover dynamics and socio-demographic variables were the most significant, with R Square values > 0.60 for linear and non linear models. Vegetation cover density has high inverse correlations with population, urbanization levels and number of households in localities. Population/urbanization status of localities was also the most significant Principal Component or underlying dimension linked to spatial dynamics of vegetation cover in the basin accounting for 50% of factor variations. Relationships between vegetation cover densities and economic factors (occupational and household energy patterns) and socio-cultural factors (environmental knowledge, values and governance) were weaker and less significant. The study captured the linkages between landcover- represented by vegetation cover- and socio-economic parameters. It demonstrates that socio-economic factors are major drivers of change in the basin. Key Words: Socio-economic factors, Vegetation Cover, NDVI, Socio-ecological Systems, State Variables, South Eastern Nigeria

  16. Seasonal, spatial and inter-annual variations of trace metals in mussels from the Adriatic sea: a regional gradient for arsenic and implications for monitoring the impact of off-shore activities.

    PubMed

    Fattorini, Daniele; Notti, Alessandra; Di Mento, Rossella; Cicero, Anna Maria; Gabellini, Massimo; Russo, Aniello; Regoli, Francesco

    2008-08-01

    Mussels are widely used as bioindicator organisms for monitoring chemical pollutants including trace metals. These elements are natural constituents in the marine environment and their basal concentrations in the organisms can be influenced by several environmental and biological factors. The aim of this work was to extend our knowledge on the natural variability of trace metals in mussels tissues, focusing on seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in a coastal reference site of the Adriatic coast (Portonovo); a total of 39 samplings were performed during 5 years, providing an extended data-set for tissue levels of As, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, V and Zn. Concentrations of trace metals in mussels tissues revealed marked seasonal fluctuations with significant differences between various sampling years. Such fluctuations appeared mostly related to phytoplanctonic blooms and especially to reproductive cycle which exhibited a certain inter-annual shift of the gametogenesis period. Lower concentrations were measured in summer months for the majority of elements while a different seasonal cycle was observed for arsenic, not correlated with gonadic development, neither with other elements. Chemical speciation of arsenic was characterized to distinguish compounds of natural origin from those potentially reflecting an anthropogenic impact. Arsenobetaine and arsenocholine were always the predominant forms (up to 85% of total arsenic), while a significant increase of dimethylarsine and trimethylarsine oxide in spring (24% of total arsenic) might reflect the effect of phytoplanctonic bloom on both geochemistry and trophic transfer of this element. A significant inter-annual variability was observed for both the seasonal cycle and the range of values measured for all the elements, with particularly marked differences for arsenic, ranging from less than 10 to more than 40 microg/g in summer periods of different years. Data obtained on reference mussels were used to

  17. Rainfall Control of Karst Solution and the Inter/Intra Annual Hydrogeochemical Evolution of Cave Dripwater: A Long-term, Site-specific Study, Soreq Cave, Israel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burstyn, Yuval; Bar-Matthews, Miryam; Ayalon, Avner; Matthews, Alan

    2016-04-01

    Speleothem laminae preserve climate information transferred to the cave via dripwater. High spatial resolution methods allow in situ measurement of geochemical and isotopic proxies at seasonal resolution. Existing hydrogeochemical calibration models suggest that high rainfall inhibits karst water chemical evolution, resulting in low δ 18O values, and low Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios that are not necessarily correlated. Drought periods display opposite chemical behaviour owing to lower infiltration rates and increased Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP). This study aims to provide a site-specific, high-resolution hydrogeochemical calibration for the Soreq Cave. We examine four sites that were continuously sampled since 1990. Four main rainfall conditions are characterized: very wet years, average, drought and very dry years. Two sites are fed by 'fast drips', which only become active after ˜ 250mm rainfall has accumulated since the beginning of the winter season. Two sites, located deeper in the cave, are fed by 'slow drips' that are active all year round. Drip rate measurements identify two main reservoirs - fissure and matrix - that mainly differ in residence time. The δ 18O of fissure water is closer to that of mean annual rainfall (˜ -6 ‰VSMOW), while matrix values are higher (˜ -3.5 ‰VSMOW). Two main Sr and Mg sources are identified - dolomitic bedrock (Mg/Ca ˜ 700 mM/M, Sr/Ca ˜ 0.4 mM/M) and soil leachate (Mg/Ca ˜ 300 mM/M, Sr/Ca ˜ 1.1 mM/M). Most cave dripwater evolves from ˜ 1:1 soil-bedrock solution. PCP effect on dripwater solution at each site is estimated by comparing the ln(Mg/Ca) vs ln(Sr/Ca) linear slope to the PCP slope calculated using cave specific D(Mg) and D(Sr). Soreq Cave PCP slope is similar to the global slope of 0.88± 0.13. The composition and chemical evolution of each reservoir and its contribution to water influx at each site is primarily governed by annual effective infiltration. Higher seasonal amplitude in δ 18O, Mg/Ca and Sr

  18. Assessment of RegCM4 simulated inter-annual variability and daily-scale statistics of temperature and precipitation over Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Graef, Federico; Pavia, Edgar G.

    2014-02-01

    The skill of a regional climate model (RegCM4) in capturing the mean patterns, interannual variability and extreme statistics of daily-scale temperature and precipitation events over Mexico is assessed through a comparison of observations and a 27-year long simulation driven by reanalyses of observations covering the Central America CORDEX domain. The analysis also includes the simulation of tropical cyclones. It is found that RegCM4 reproduces adequately the mean spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation and temperature, along with the associated interannual variability characteristics. The main model bias is an overestimation of precipitation in mountainous regions. The 5 and 95 percentiles of daily temperature, as well as the maximum dry spell length are realistically simulated. The simulated distribution of precipitation events as well as the 95 percentile of precipitation shows a wet bias in topographically complex regions. Based on a simple detection method, the model produces realistic tropical cyclone distributions even at its relatively coarse resolution (dx = 50 km), although the number of cyclone days is underestimated over the Pacific and somewhat overestimated over the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Overall, it is assessed that the performance of RegCM4 over Mexico is of sufficient quality to study not only mean precipitation and temperature patterns, but also higher order climate statistics.

  19. Estimation of inter-annual winter crop area variation and spatial distribution with low resolution NDVI data by using neural networks trained on high resolution images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atzberger, C.; Rembold, F.

    2009-09-01

    The current work aimed at testing a methodology which can be applied to low spatial resolution satellite data to assess interannual crop area variations on a regional scale. The methodology is based on the assumption that within mixed pixels such variations are reflected by changes in the related multitemporal Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) profiles. This implies that low resolution NDVI images with high temporal frequency can be used to update land cover estimates derived from higher resolution cartography. More particularly, changes in the shape of annual NDVI profiles can be detected by a Neural Network trained by using high resolution images for a subset of the study years. By taking into account the respective proportions of the remaining land covers within a given low resolution pixel, the accuracy of the net can be further increased. The proposed methodology was applied in a study region in central Italy to estimate area changes of winter crops from low resolution NDVI profiles. The accuracy of such estimates was assessed by comparison to official agricultural statistics using a bootstrap approach. The method showed promise for estimating crop area variation on a regional scale and proved to have a significantly higher forecast capability than other methods used previously for the same study area.

  20. Using Novel Approaches in Process-Based Modeling for Interpreting Inter-Annual Variability in Tree Ring Widths, Wood Density Profiles, and Cellulose Isotopic Ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friend, A. D.; Babst, F.; Belmecheri, S.; Frank, D. C.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hayat, A.; Poulter, B.; Rademacher, T. T.; Trouet, V.

    2015-12-01

    Time series annual of tree ring width, density variation, and oxygen and carbon isotopic compositions have the potential to substantially increase our knowledge of forest responses to environmental variation. However, their interpretation is not straightforward due to the simultaneous influences of a number of confounding factors, including carry-over effects from previous years, variable resource allocation with size, age, and canopy position, species-specific physiologies, and complex interactions between forcings such as temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric CO2. Here we attempt to tease these factors apart and so substantially improve the interpretability of tree ring archives through the construction and application of novel approaches within a process-based model of individual tree growth. The model incorporates descriptions of xylem cell division, expansion, and secondary wall thickening, apical and lateral meristem activities with internal controls from internal signals, internal carbon storage, and the dynamics of canopy photosynthesis, stomatal movements, evapotranspiration, canopy temperatures, and soil moisture. Alternative treatments of isotopic fractionation and growth controls are evaluated using measured datasets. We demonstrate how this new model approach can be used to assess the information contained in tree rings concerning the influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 over the past century on growth and water use efficiency at a range of sites.

  1. Mercury in the Blue Marlin (Makaira nigricans) from the Southern Gulf of California: Tissue Distribution and Inter-Annual Variation (2005-2012).

    PubMed

    Vega-Sánchez, B; Ortega-García, S; Ruelas-Inzunza, J; Frías-Espericueta, M; Escobar-Sánchez, O; Guzmán-Rendón, J

    2017-02-01

    With the aim of knowing annual variations of Hg concentrations in muscle and liver of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) from the southern Gulf of California, fish were collected between 2005 and 2012 in three areas. In general, Hg levels were more elevated in liver than in muscle. Variations of Hg concentrations in muscle and liver among the studied years were not significant. Hg levels in muscle and liver increased significantly with length and weight of fish. In comparison to other studies, Hg levels in muscle and liver were lower. With respect to maximum permissible limits (1.0 µg g(-1) wet weight) of Hg in Mexico, the average concentration (1.91 µg g(-1) wet weight) in the edible portion (muscle) of blue marlin was over the legal limit; this issue is worth research efforts in relation to the rate of ingestion of this species and the co-occurrence of selenium in the edible portion.

  2. Reducing False Alarms of Annual Forecast in the Central China North-South Seismic Belt by Reverse Tracing of Precursors (RTP) Using the Pattern Informatics (PI) `Hotspots'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Shengfeng; Wu, Zhongliang; Jiang, Changsheng

    2017-06-01

    The annual consultation on the likelihood of earthquakes in the next year, the `Annual Consultation Meeting', has been one of the most important forward forecast experiments organized by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) since the 1970s, in which annual alarm regions are identified by an expert panel considering multi-disciplinary `anomalies'. In such annual forecasts, one of the problems in need of further technical solution is its false alarms. To tackle this problem, the concept of `reverse tracing of precursors (RTP)' is used to the annual consultation, as a temporal continuation and spatial extension of the work of Z hao et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 167:783-800, 2010). The central China north-south seismic belt (in connection to the CSEP testing region) is selected as the testing region of such an approach. Applying the concept of RTP, for an annual alarm region delineated by the Annual Consultation Meeting, the distribution of `hotspots' of the pattern informatics (PI), which targets the 5-year-scale seismic hazard, is considered. The `hit', or successful forecast, of the annual seismic hazard is shown to be related to the sufficient coverage of the `hotspots' within the annual alarm region. The ratio of the areas of the `hotspots' over the whole area of the annual alarm region is thus used to identify the false alarms which have few `hotspots'. The results of the years 2004-2012 show that using a threshold of 17 % can reduce 34 % (13 among 38) of the false alarms without losing the successful hit (being 6 in that period).

  3. Assessing Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Lake Surface Areas in Mongolia during 2000-2011 Using Minimum Composite MODIS NDVI.

    PubMed

    Kang, Sinkyu; Hong, Suk Young

    2016-01-01

    A minimum composite method was applied to produce a 15-day interval normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily 250 m reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands. This dataset was applied to determine lake surface areas in Mongolia. A total of 73 lakes greater than 6.25 km2in area were selected, and 28 of these lakes were used to evaluate detection errors. The minimum composite NDVI showed a better detection performance on lake water pixels than did the official MODIS 16-day 250 m NDVI based on a maximum composite method. The overall lake area detection performance based on the 15-day minimum composite NDVI showed -2.5% error relative to the Landsat-derived lake area for the 28 evaluated lakes. The errors increased with increases in the perimeter-to-area ratio but decreased with lake size over 10 km(2). The lake area decreased by -9.3% at an annual rate of -53.7 km(2) yr(-1) during 2000 to 2011 for the 73 lakes. However, considerable spatial variations, such as slight-to-moderate lake area reductions in semi-arid regions and rapid lake area reductions in arid regions, were also detected. This study demonstrated applicability of MODIS 250 m reflectance data for biweekly monitoring of lake area change and diagnosed considerable lake area reduction and its spatial variability in arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia. Future studies are required for explaining reasons of lake area changes and their spatial variability.

  4. Different inter-annual responses to availability and form of nitrogen explain species coexistence in an alpine meadow community after release from grazing.

    PubMed

    Song, Ming-Hua; Yu, Fei-Hai; Ouyang, Hua; Cao, Guang-Min; Xu, Xing-Liang; Cornelissen, Johannes H C

    2012-10-01

    Plant species and functional groups in nitrogen (N) limited communities may coexist through strong eco-physiological niche differentiation, leading to idiosyncratic responses to multiple nutrition and disturbance regimes. Very little is known about how such responses depend on the availability of N in different chemical forms. Here we hypothesize that idiosyncratic year-to-year responses of plant functional groups to availability and form of nitrogen explain species coexistence in an alpine meadow community after release from grazing. We conducted a 6 year N addition experiment in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau released from grazing by livestock. The experimental design featured three N forms (ammonium, nitrate, and ammonium nitrate), crossed with three levels of N supply rates (0.375, 1.500 and 7.500 g N m(-2)  yr(-1) ), with unfertilized treatments without and with light grazing as controls. All treatments showed increasing productivity and decreasing species richness after cessation of grazing and these responses were stronger at higher N rates. Although N forms did not affect aboveground biomass at community level, different functional groups did show different responses to N chemical form and supply rate and these responses varied from year to year. In support of our hypothesis, these idiosyncratic responses seemed to enable a substantial diversity and biomass of sedges, forbs, and legumes to still coexist with the increasingly productive grasses in the absence of grazing, at least at low and intermediate N availability regimes. This study provides direct field-based evidence in support of the hypothesis that idiosyncratic and annually varying responses to both N quantity and quality may be a key driver of community structure and species coexistence. This finding has important implications for the diversity and functioning of other ecosystems with spatial and temporal variation in available N quantity and quality as related to changing

  5. Assessing Seasonal and Inter-Annual Variations of Lake Surface Areas in Mongolia during 2000-2011 Using Minimum Composite MODIS NDVI

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sinkyu; Hong, Suk Young

    2016-01-01

    A minimum composite method was applied to produce a 15-day interval normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily 250 m reflectance in the red and near-infrared bands. This dataset was applied to determine lake surface areas in Mongolia. A total of 73 lakes greater than 6.25 km2in area were selected, and 28 of these lakes were used to evaluate detection errors. The minimum composite NDVI showed a better detection performance on lake water pixels than did the official MODIS 16-day 250 m NDVI based on a maximum composite method. The overall lake area detection performance based on the 15-day minimum composite NDVI showed -2.5% error relative to the Landsat-derived lake area for the 28 evaluated lakes. The errors increased with increases in the perimeter-to-area ratio but decreased with lake size over 10 km2. The lake area decreased by -9.3% at an annual rate of -53.7 km2 yr-1 during 2000 to 2011 for the 73 lakes. However, considerable spatial variations, such as slight-to-moderate lake area reductions in semi-arid regions and rapid lake area reductions in arid regions, were also detected. This study demonstrated applicability of MODIS 250 m reflectance data for biweekly monitoring of lake area change and diagnosed considerable lake area reduction and its spatial variability in arid and semi-arid regions of Mongolia. Future studies are required for explaining reasons of lake area changes and their spatial variability. PMID:27007233

  6. Annual pattern of photosynthesis in Scots pine in the boreal zone.

    PubMed

    Hari, Pertti; Mäkelä, Annikki

    2003-02-01

    To detect seasonal changes in photosynthetic rate in the field, a set of 18,000 photosynthetic measurements made between April and October on three shoots of Scots pine growing near the northern timberline was studied. The measurements were analyzed in the framework of an optimal stomatal control model of photosynthesis, in which irradiance (photosynthetically active radiation, I), air humidity and ambient temperature are driving variables. All driving variables were monitored concomitantly with gas exchange measurements throughout the growing season. The model has nine parameters, of which six were assumed to be constant over the growing season and were fixed based on previous information. The three variable parameters were the initial slope (alpha) and saturation value (gamma) of the light-response curve of carboxylation efficiency in the intercellular cavity, and the cost of transpiration (lambda), in carbon units, regulating the degree of stomatal opening. These parameters could not be estimated independently, nor could their values be satisfactorily found by standard nonlinear regression techniques. A Monte Carlo based simulation procedure was devised to analyze the best-fit parameters and their mutual correlations near the minimum of the residual sum of squares. This was accomplished by replacing the saturation value of the light-response curve with a linearity parameter that determined the shape of the curve. In the best fit solutions, only alpha and lambda varied from day to day, whereas the shape of the curve was constant (i.e., gamma was proportional to alpha). Both alpha and lambda showed consistent patterns from spring to autumn, but the seasonal variation was considerably greater for alpha than for lambda. The optimal stomatal control model with the seven fixed and two daily parameter values gave a good overall fit for photosynthetic rate over the season (PEV > 95%).

  7. Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate.

    PubMed

    Camps, Josep Odó; Ramos, María Concepción

    2012-09-01

    This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996-2009) than in previous decades (1960s-2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996-2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960-2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996-2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between -0.7 and -1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to -7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a

  8. Reconstructing inter annual Indonesian river discharge by high-resolution LA-ICPMS geochemistry and UV-luminescence scanning of corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagtegaal, R.; Bergh, van den, G.; Pascher, K.; Jochum, K. P.; Brummer, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    Degradation of many coral reefs around the world is linked to land-based activities. Soil erosion due to land-use changes results in increased quantities of sediment to local river systems which are, in many cases, discharged directly onto the reefs systems. The Berau delta/barrier reef system, located offshore NE Kalimantan, Indonesia, is characterized by a unique and pristine reef system that exists in close proximity of the Berau river mouth. Over the last decades deforestation and mining activities have considerably increased in the region. Our project aimed to assess the impact of those land-use changes in relation to sediment supply to the reef system over the last decades. Corals archive historical sedimentation records as they entrap terrigenous sediments into their skeleton and thus can be used to identify periods of decreased or enhanced sediment supply associated with anthropogenic induced land-use changes and natural variations in freshwater discharge. We investigate cores drilled from living Porites sp. coral colonies collected in the North Eastern part of the Berau delta >20 km from the river mouth. The annually banded cores were analyzed for Ba/Ca and Y/Ca ratios using LA-ICPMS in combination with spectral luminescence scanning (SLS) as a measure for terrestrial sediment input and soil erosion. Three coral luminescence records were used to establish a 28-year composite record of sediment discharge. The year to year variability of sediment supply to the reef system is evidently regulated by the El Niño Southern Oscillation climate system (ENSO). Especially positive phases of the Nino 3.4 index (= El Niño) have a strong negative effect on the sediment supply to the reef system which clearly diminished during the El Niño years 82-83, 92 and 97-98. We also conclude that for the Berau region, Y/Ca rather than Ba/Ca correlates well with precipitation records which is supported by the relation to the spectral luminescence results. Despite the fact that

  9. Grape harvest and yield responses to inter-annual changes in temperature and precipitation in an area of north-east Spain with a Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camps, Josep Odó; Ramos, María Concepción

    2012-09-01

    This study presents an analysis of temperature and precipitation trends and their impact on grape harvests in the Penedès region (NE Spain). It includes analyses of maximum, minimum and mean daily temperatures (for both the growing and ripening seasons) and daily rainfall (for the hydrological year, the growing season and each phenological stage) for three observatories in the immediate area. We analysed a series of factors: beginning and end harvest dates; the day on which a given potential alcoholic degree was reached; and yield for several varieties of grape grown in the area in relation to climatic variables. Maximum temperatures increased at all the observatories, with greater values being recorded in recent years (1996-2009) than in previous decades (1960s-2000s): we observed increases in average growing season temperatures of 0.11°C per year for the period 1996-2009 vs 0.04°C per year for the period 1960-2009 at Vilafranca del Penedès. These temperature changes were due mainly to increases in maximum temperatures and an increase in the incidence of extreme heat (number of days with T > 30°C). Crop evapotranspiration also increased significantly during the same period. The Winkler index also increased, so the study area would correspond to region IV according to that climatic classification. There were no significant trends in annual rainfall but rainfall recorded between bloom and veraison decreased significantly at the three observatories, with the greatest decrease corresponding to the period 1996-2009. The dates on which harvests started and ended showed a continuous advance (of between -0.7 and -1.1 days per year, depending on the variety), which was significantly correlated with the average mean and maximum daily growing season temperatures (up to -7.68 days for 1°C increase). Winegrape yield was influenced by the estimated water deficit (crop evapotranspiration minus precipitation) in the bloom-veraison period; this value increased due to a

  10. Productivity and phenological responses of natural vegetation to present and future inter-annual climate variability across semi-arid river basins in Chile.

    PubMed

    Glade, Francisco E; Miranda, Marcelo D; Meza, Francisco J; van Leeuwen, Willem J D

    2016-12-01

    Time series of vegetation indices and remotely sensed phenological data offer insights about the patterns in vegetation dynamics. Both are useful sources of information for analyzing and monitoring ecosystem responses to environmental variations caused by natural and anthropogenic drivers. In the semi-arid region of Chile, climate variability and recent severe droughts in addition to land-use changes pose threats to the stability of local ecosystems. Normalized difference vegetation index time series (2000-2013) data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) was processed to monitor the trends and patterns of vegetation productivity and phenology observed over the last decade. An analysis of the relationship between (i) vegetation productivity and (ii) precipitation and temperature data for representative natural land-use cover classes was made. Using these data and ground measurements, productivity estimates were projected for two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) at two altitudinal levels. Results showed negative trends of vegetation productivity below 2000 m a.s.l. and positive trends for higher elevations. Phenology analysis suggested that mountainous ecosystems were starting their growing period earlier in the season, coinciding with a decreased productivity peak during the growing season. The coastal shrubland/grassland land cover class had a significant positive relation with rainfall and a significant negative relation with temperature, suggesting that these ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change. Future productivity projections indicate that under an RCP8.5 climate change scenario, productivity could decline by 12% in the period of 2060-2100, leading to a severe vegetation degradation at lower altitudes and in drier areas.

  11. Seasonal, inter-annual and decadal changes of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium, The Netherlands)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Middelburg, Jack J. B.; Chou, Lei; Kromkamp, Jacco; Houtekamer, Marco; Harlay, Jérôme

    2014-05-01

    We carried out monthly cruises to study the seasonal and spatial variations of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide CO2 (pCO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations in the Scheldt estuary, a strongly human impacted system located in Belgium and the Netherlands. This survey was initiated in 2008 for pCO2, and from 2009 onwards for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). In the lower estuary, pCO2 strongly decreased and oxygen saturation level (%O2) strongly increased during the spring phytoplankton bloom. In the upper estuary, two yearly maxima of pCO2 coinciding with minima of %O2 occurred in spring and fall due to enhanced nitrification and/or net heterotrophy. In the upper estuary, pCO2 decreased in winter due to lower temperature (affecting solubility and inhibiting biological activity). pCO2 also decreased in summer due to increase in primary production and decrease of net heterotrophy. In the upper estuary, maxima of CH4 were observed in winter due to enhanced river inputs (high discharge) while in the lower estuary higher CH4 was observed in summer. This was probably due to inputs of CH4 from inter-tidal areas at the mouth of estuary that increased in summer due to higher temperatures and higher organic matter availability. N2O also showed higher values during winter in the upper estuary, but in summer N2O was low in the lower estuary due to decreased solubility due to higher temperature. During winter 2009, extremely high N2O values were observed in the upper estuary, up to 3257 nM (23738% saturation). This was related to the problems encountered by the Brussels North waste water treatment plant (WWTP) in late 2009. One of the collectors of the station was shut down in 25 November 2009, and by 8 December 2009, the whole WWTP was shut down and the waste-water was delivered directly to the Rupel. Extremely high N2O values were observed in the upper estuary on 7 December 2009, and abnormally high N2O values (compared to other years) persisted

  12. In Search of the E. coli Compounds that Change the Antibiotic Production Pattern of Streptomyces coelicolor During Inter-species Interaction.

    PubMed

    Mavituna, Ferda; Luti, Khalid Jaber Kadhum; Gu, Lixing

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate the interaction between E.coli and Streptomyces coelicolor A3 (2) for the increased production of undecylprodigiosin and identify the E. coli actives mediating this inter-species interaction. The antibiotics of interest were the red-pigmented undecylprodigiosin and blue-pigmented actinorhodin. Pure cultures of S. coelicolor in a defined medium produced higher concentrations of actinorhodin compared to those of undecylprodigiosin. The latter however, is more important due to its immunosuppressive and antitumor properties. As a strategy to increase undecylprodigiosin production, we added separately, live cells and heat-killed cells of E. coli C600, and the cell-free supernatant of E. coli culture to S. coelicolor cultures in shake flasks. The interaction with live cells of E. coli altered the antibiotic production pattern and undecylprodigiosin production was enhanced by 3.5-fold compared to the pure cultures of S. coelicolor and actinorhodin decreased by 15-fold. The heat-killed cells of E. coli however, had no effect on antibiotic production. In all cases, growth and glucose consumption of S. coelicolor remained almost the same as those observed in the pure culture indicating that the changes in antibiotic production were not due to nutritional stress. Results with cell-free supernatant of E. coli culture indicated that the interaction between S. coelicolor and E. coli was mediated via diffusible molecule(s). Using a set of extraction procedures and agar-well diffusion bioassays, we isolated and preliminarily identified a class of compounds. For the preliminary verification, we added the compound which was the common chemical structural moiety in this class of compounds to the pure S. coelicolor cultures. We observed similar effects on antibiotic production as with the live E. coli cells and their supernatant indicating that this class of compounds secreted by E. coli indeed could act as actives during interspecies

  13. Characterizing intra and inter annual variability of storm events based on very high frequency monitoring of hydrological and chemical variables: what can we learn about hot spots and hot moments from continuous hydro-chemical sensors ?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fovet, O.; Thelusma, G.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Jaffrezic, A.; Grimaldi, C.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Gruau, G.

    2015-12-01

    Storm events are hot moments of emission for several dissolved and particulate chemical species at major stake for water quality (e.g. dissolved organic carbon DOC, suspended sediments, phosphorus, NH4). During such events, the solutes or particles are exported from heterogeneous sources through various pathways to stream or are possibly stored in retention hot spots temporary. This leads to specific integrated signals at the outlet at the scale of storm events. The dynamics of such events are also very short especially in headwater catchments where their total duration ranges over 10h to 3 days, with very quick variations in stream flow and concentrations at the outlet occurring in a few hours. Thus for investigating properly event processes, high frequency monitoring of flow and water quality is required. We analysed 103 storm events in a 5 km2 agricultural headwater catchment, part of the AgrHys Observatory, on the basis of a 3-year-long data set which combined meterological (Rainfall), hydrological (flow and piezometry), and water quality (turbidity, conductivity, DOC and NO3 concentrations) data recorded at very high frequencies (from 1 to 20 min) thanks to dedicated sensors. We described the storm events using simple (1 variable) and combined (2 variables) descriptors for characterizing level and dynamics of flow (Q), groundwater levels, and concentrations (C) but also the C-Q relationships. Three intra annual periods have been previously defined for base flow dynamic according to shallow groundwater table variations so that they correspond to different connectivity status in the catchment. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the storm events have been analysed using the descriptors and based on these predefined periods. Principal component analysis based on storm chemical descriptors led to discriminate these three seasons while storm hydrological descriptors are less variable between them. Finally we used a clustering method to build a typology of

  14. A 150 year record of inter-annual climate variability and organic carbon burial in Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins

    SciTech Connect

    Hagadorn, J.W.; Stott, L.D.; Sinha, A.; Rincon, M. . Dept. of Geological Sciences); Schimmelmann, A. . Scripps Inst. of Oceanography)

    1992-01-01

    Stable isotopic measurements were conducted on total organic carbon (TOC) and fossil planktonic foraminifera in laminated sediments collected from Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins, California Borderland, in order to investigate relationships between climatic variability and organic carbon burial. These data currently provide biannual sample resolution back to 1750 AD. During the past 150 years, there has been a positive covariance between the carbon isotopic composition of fossil planktonic foraminifera and of TOC. Periods of increased delta C-13 of TOC and foraminifera correspond to higher organic carbon burial in Santa Monica and Santa Barbara Basins. When combined, these patterns are interpreted as variation in productivity within the basins. Isotopic variability in TOC and planktonic foraminifera is significantly higher prior to 1900 AD. Although spring sea surface temperatures were also significantly more variable during this period, the authors do not recognize a systematic relationship between temperature and organic carbon burial. Spectral analysis of isotopic compositions of fossil foraminifera calcite, TOC, organic carbon burial and lamination frequency in the sediments reveal distinct spectral peaks at 5 and 7.7 years, corresponding to ENSO/El Nino frequencies. Additional spectral peaks occur at 19 and 20 years. Previous time series analyses of tree ring width records indicate similar decadal-scale frequencies and suggest a possible link to solar and/or lunar nodal tidal cycles. While these initial results suggest a relationship between climate-cyclicity, primary productivity and organic carbon burial, the phase relationship cannot be deciphered from this preliminary data set.

  15. Atmospheric deposition as an important nitrogen load to a typical agro-ecosystem in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. 2. Seasonal and inter-annual variations and their implications (2008-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Ping; Zhang, Jiabao; Ma, Donghao; Wen, Zhaofei; Wu, Shengjun; Garland, Gina; Pereira, Engil Isadora Pujol; Zhu, Anning; Xin, Xiuli; Zhang, Congzhi

    2016-03-01

    Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, an important N source to agro-ecosystems, has increased intensively in China during recent decades. However, knowledge on temporal variations of total N deposition and their influencing factors is limited due to lack of systematic monitoring data. In this study, total N deposition, including dry and wet components, was monitored using the water surrogate surface method for a typical agro-ecosystem with a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) rotation system in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from May 2008 to April 2012. The results indicated that annual total N deposition ranged from 23.8 kg N ha-1 (2009-2010) to 40.3 kg N ha-1 (2008-2009) and averaged 31.8 kg N ha-1. Great inter-annual variations were observed during the sampling period, due to differences in annual rainfall and gaseous N losses from farmlands. Monthly total N deposition varied greatly, from less than 0.6 kg N ha-1 (January, 2010) to over 8.0 kg N ha-1 (August, 2008), with a mean value of 2.6 kg N ha-1. In contrast to wet deposition, dry portions generally contributed more to the total, except in the precipitation-intensive months, accounting for 65% in average. NH4+ -N was the dominant species in N deposition and its contribution to total deposition varied from 6% (December, 2009) to 79% (July, 2008), averaging 53%. The role of organic N (O-N) in both dry and wet deposition was equal to or even greater than that of NO3- -N. Influencing factors such as precipitation and its seasonal distribution, reactive N sources, vegetation status, field management practices, and weather conditions were responsible for the temporal variations of atmospheric N deposition and its components. These results are helpful for reducing the knowledge gaps in the temporal variations of atmospheric N deposition and their influencing factors in different ecosystems, to improve the understandings on N budget in the typical agro-ecosystem, and to provide references

  16. Impact of quasi-biennial oscillation on the inter-annual variability of the tropopause height and temperature in the tropics: A study using COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Reddy, K. K.; Gupta, A.; Prasad, S. B. Surendra; Panwar, V.; Singh, Narendra; Ho, Shu-Peng; Takahashi, M.

    2014-03-01

    The effect of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the temperature of cold point tropopause (T-CPT) and its height (H-CPT) is being investigated using radio occultation measurements by COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3. Observations comprising of 935,863 numbers of occultations have been used to study the zonal mean seasonal variability in T-CPT and H-CPT from January 2007 to December 2011. Results are shown over 30°N-30°S geographic latitudes. In general, T-CPT is found to be the coldest in February and the warmest in August. H-CPT attains maximum height during December-February and minimum during July-August. Interestingly, H-CPT shows maxima at off-equator region (around 20°N or 20°S) during all the seasons in both hemispheres. H-CPT at off-equatorial region, in reference to the equatorial region, is slightly higher (~ 1.0 km) during winter as compared to monsoon season (~ 0.5 km) in Northern Hemisphere (NH). Inter-annual variation in T-CPT and H-CPT found to be clearly influenced by the QBO. Westerly (easterly) phase generates warm (cold) T-CPT, which consequently results a decrease (increase) in H-CPT. It is concluded that QBO induces the changes in T-CPT by as much as 2 °C and in H-CPT by 0.5 km.

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual eutrophication dynamics in a hypereutrophic shallow coastal lagoon from ten years of satellite observations and in-situ data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitarch, Jaime; Ruiz-Verdú, Antonio; Soria, Juan M.; Santoleri, Rosalia

    2016-04-01

    The Albufera de Valencia (39.33 N, 0.37 W) is a hypereutrophic shallow coastal lagoon, having a near round shape of ~ 5 km diameter and ~ 1 m average depth. At the west side, the lake is separated from the sea by a narrow land strip, but three artificial channels allow connection to the sea, regulated by gates. The rest of the lake is surrounded by rice fields that were made by gaining surface from the lake around a century ago. Nowadays, the ecological state of the lake is very degraded. Freshwater inflow is insufficient and residence time is too high. Despite some improvements in waste water treatment, high loads of sediment-stored nutrients are often resuspended due to habitual strong winds and made available for primary production. The previously abundant bottom vegetation disappeared decades ago and secchi depth does not reach more than few tens of centimeters. The lake suffers from cyanobacterial blooms and massive fish deaths. Despite its vital importance as a coastal wetland in the western Mediterranean region, its water quality is not routinely monitored, so its seasonality and eventual blooming events have not been sistematically studied. In this study, we aim at filling this gap using satellite data. Medium-resolution satellite-borne sensors constitute an appropriate tool for this sake due to the lake's medium size and little cloud cover time over the region. In particular, the European MERIS sensor (2002-2012) is specially well suited due to its unique spectral bands configuration for cyanobacterial detection. Apart from the utility of the results themselves, study of this sensor provides a strong baseline for operational utilization of its successor, the new-coming European Sentinel 3-OLCI sensor. We have processed the full archived MERIS archived data. By adequate choice of band ratios and posterior calibration to in-situ samples, the time series of chlorophyll concentration is derived. Derived seasonality reveals a pattern that is determined by the

  18. Effect of climate, intra and inter-annual variability, on nutrients emission (C,N, P) in stream water: lessons from an agricultural long term observatory of the temperate zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Remi, Dupas; Patrick, Durand; Ophélie, Fovet; Gerard, Gruau; Anne, Jaffrezic; Guillaume, Humbert; Philippe, Merot; Gu, Sen

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture greatly contributes to modify C, N and P cycles, particularly in animal breeding regions due to high inputs. Climatic conditions, intra and inter-annual variabilities, modify nutrient stream water emissions, acting in time on transfer and transformation, accumulation and mobilization processes, connecting and disconnecting in time different compartments (soil, riparian areas, groundwater). In agricultural catchments, nutrient perturbations are dominated by agricultural land use, and decoupling human activities and climate effects is far from easy. Climate change generally appears as a secondary driver compared to land use. If studied, generally only one nutrient is considered. Only long term, high frequency and multiple element data series can decouple these two drivers. The Kervidy-Naizin watershed belongs to the AgrHyS environmental research observatory (http://www6.inra.fr/ore_agrhys_eng), itself included in RBV (French catchment network of the CZO). On this catchment, 6 years of daily data on DOC, NO3, SRP, TP concentrations allow us to analyze the effect of seasonal and inter-annual climatic variabilities on water quality (C, N, P). Different papers have been published on the effect of climate on nitrate (Molenat et al, 2008), SRP and TP (Dupas et al, 2015) and DOC (Humbert et al, 2015). We will present first results comparing the effect of climate on these three major solute forms of C, N and P. While C and P dynamics are very close and controlled by fluctuation of water table downslope, i.e. in riparian areas, mobilizing C and P in time, nitrate dynamics is controlled by GW dynamics upslope acting as the major N reservoir. As example, the dryness conditions in summer appears a key factor of the C and P emissions in autumn. All the three solute forms interact when anoxic conditions are observed in riparian zones. These basic processes explain how climatic variability can influence and explain interactions between C, N and P emissions in stream

  19. Bidirectional recovery patterns of Mojave Desert vegetation in an aqueduct pipeline corridor after 36 years: II. Annual plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berry, Kristin H.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Weigand, James F.; Gowan, Timothy A.; LaBerteaux, Denise

    2015-01-01

    We studied recovery of winter annual plants in a 97-m wide disturbed aqueduct corridor in the Mojave Desert 36 years after construction. We established plots at 0, 20, and 40 m from the road verge at the corridor center and at 100 m in undisturbed vegetation. We recorded 47 annual species, of which 41 were native and six were exotic. Exotic species composed from 64 to 91% of total biomass. We describe a bilateral process of recovery: from the road verge to the outward edge of the corridor and from undisturbed habitat into the corridor. Native annual plants significantly increased in richness from road verge to undisturbed vegetation, but not in density, biomass, or cover. In contrast, exotic annual plants increased in density, biomass, cover and richness with increasing distance from the road verge. The species of colonizing shrubs and type of canopy cover affected density, biomass, and richness of annuals. Species composition of native annuals differed significantly by distance, suggesting secondary succession. In general, native annuals were closer to achieving recovery on the 40-m plots than at the road verge. Recovery estimates were in centuries and dependent on location, canopy type, and whether considering all annuals or natives only.

  20. Do physicians/researchers trade stock based on privileged information? A closer look at trading patterns surrounding the annual ASCO conference.

    PubMed

    Donath, Elie; Eisenberg, Mark J

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this paper was to assess whether, given the opportunity, physicians/researchers would try to profit (by trading stocks) from information that only they were made privy to. The Annual ASCO (American Society of Clinical Oncology) Conference, the largest annual oncology conference, provided the perfect venue to fully explore this question. Up until 2008, ASCO abstracts were released exclusively to ASCO members (i.e., physicians, oncologists) two weeks prior to the conference, and many speculated about unusual trading patterns during these two weeks. In 2008, in response to concerns about such illicit activities, ASCO changed this policy (by distributing these abstracts instead to the general public). We decided to take a closer look at these trading patterns to determine the true impact of ASCO's 2008 decision and whether the differences prior to and following 2008 reveal something about the likelihood of physicians/researchers to profit from "privileged information."

  1. Inter-annual and Intra-annual Variability in River Flow and Inundation in African River Systems: Results from a new pan-African Land-surface Model Validated against Earth Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dadson, S. J.

    2014-12-01

    The role of surface-water flooding in controlling fluxes of water and carbon between the land and the atmosphere is increasingly recognized in studies of the Earth system. Simultaneous advances in remote earth observation and large-scale land-surface and hydrological modeling promise improvements in our ability to understand these linkages, and suggest that improvements in prediction of river flow and inundation extents may result. Here we present an analysis of newly-available observational estimates of surface water inundation obtained through satellite Earth observation with results from simulations produced by using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land-surface model operating at 0.5 degree resolution over the African continent. The model was forced with meteorological input from the WATCH Forcing Data for the period 1981-2001 and sensitivity to various model configurations and parameter settings were tested. Both the PDM and TOPMODEL sub-grid scale runoff generation schemes were tested for parameter sensitivities, with the evaluation focussing on simulated river discharge in sub-catchments of the Congo, Nile, Niger, Orange, Okavango and Zambezi rivers. It was found that whilst the water balance in each of the catchments can be simulated with acceptable accuracy, the individual responses of each river vary between model configurations so that there is no single runoff parameterization scheme or parameter values that yields optimal results across all catchments. We trace these differences to the model's representation of sub-surface flow and make some suggestions to improve the performance of large-scale land-surface models for use in similar applications. Our findings also demonstrate links between episodes of extensive surface water flooding and large-scale climatic indices, although the pattern of correlations contains a level of spatial and temporal detail that warrants careful attention to the climatology of individual situations. These

  2. Seasonal and Inter-Annual Patterns of Phytoplankton Community Structure in Monterey Bay, CA Derived from AVIRIS Data During the 2013-2015 HyspIRI Airborne Campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palacios, S. L.; Thompson, D. R.; Kudela, R. M.; Negrey, K.; Guild, L. S.; Gao, B. C.; Green, R. O.; Torres-Perez, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    There is a need in the ocean color community to discriminate among phytoplankton groups within the bulk chlorophyll pool to understand ocean biodiversity, to track energy flow through ecosystems, and to identify and monitor for harmful algal blooms. Imaging spectrometer measurements enable use of sophisticated spectroscopic algorithms for applications such as differentiating among coral species, evaluating iron stress of phytoplankton, and discriminating phytoplankton taxa. These advanced algorithms rely on the fine scale, subtle spectral shape of the atmospherically corrected remote sensing reflectance (Rrs) spectrum of the ocean surface. As a consequence, these algorithms are sensitive to inaccuracies in the retrieved Rrs spectrum that may be related to the presence of nearby clouds, inadequate sensor calibration, low sensor signal-to-noise ratio, glint correction, and atmospheric correction. For the HyspIRI Airborne Campaign, flight planning considered optimal weather conditions to avoid flights with significant cloud/fog cover. Although best suited for terrestrial targets, the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has enough signal for some coastal chlorophyll algorithms and meets sufficient calibration requirements for most channels. However, the coastal marine environment has special atmospheric correction needs due to error that may be introduced by aerosols and terrestrially sourced atmospheric dust and riverine sediment plumes. For this HyspIRI campaign, careful attention has been given to the correction of AVIRIS imagery of the Monterey Bay to optimize ocean Rrs retrievals for use in estimating chlorophyll (OC3 algorithm) and phytoplankton functional type (PHYDOTax algorithm) data products. This new correction method has been applied to several image collection dates during two oceanographic seasons - upwelling and the warm, stratified oceanic period for 2013 and 2014. These two periods are dominated by either diatom blooms (occasionally toxic) or red tides. Results presented include chlorophyll and phytoplankton community structure and in-water validation data for these dates during these two seasons.

  3. Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

  4. The role of meltwater variability in modulating diurnal to inter-annual ice-sheet flow: New insights from a ~decade of high-temporal resolution GPS observations on the western Greenland margin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, L. A.; Behn, M. D.; Das, S. B.; Joughin, I.; van den Broeke, M.; Herring, T.; McGuire, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    Meltwater-driven processes across the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet are controlled by seasonal fluxes as well as shorter-term variability in surface melt. Few high-temporal resolution GPS observations of ice-sheet flow extend for longer than a couple years, limiting multiyear analyses of seasonal variability in ice-sheet flow. Using a small GPS network installed at ~1000-m above sea level (m a.s.l.) operating from 2006-2014, and supplemented with a larger array of 20 GPS stations installed from 2011­-2014, we observe nine years of ice-sheet surface motion on the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The GPS array spans a horizontal distance of 30 km across an elevation range of 700-1250 m a.s.l., and captures the ice-sheet's velocity response to the seasonal melt cycle. By combining the GPS array measurements with temperature, precipitation, and runoff estimates from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), we examine the relationship between ice-sheet flow and surface melt variability both at the seasonal scale (i.e., during melt onset, summer melt season and melt cessation) as well as during transient high melt periods such as precipitation events, anomalously high melt episodes, and supraglacial lake drainages. We observe varying surface motion following early versus late summer extended melt events, with early-season extended melt events inducing longer sustained speed-up than late summer events. We also examine differences in the timing of melt onset and magnitude, comparing the anomalously high runoff observed across the ice sheet in 2010 and 2012 against the average to low runoff observed in the years comprising the remainder of the record. This nearly decadal record improves our understanding of the role of meltwater variability in modulating ice-sheet flow on diurnal to inter-annual timescales.

  5. Dragon Breath in the American West: Inter-Annual Correlations Between Dust Storms in Asia and PM10 in the Western U.S. as Seen by IMPROVE and MODIS Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, E. V.; Hsu, N. C.; Jaffe, D. A.; Jeong, M.; Gong, S. L.

    2007-12-01

    The deserts of western China and Mongolia are large sources of atmospheric dust on a hemispheric scale especially during spring when meteorological conditions are most favorable for lofting and long range transport. Specific case studies and long-term records have shown that there can be significant surface particulate matter impacts in North America from Asian dust. Our preliminary analysis using the number of Asian dust storms each spring indicates a strong correlation with PM10 in the western United States. In this work we extend this analysis to include MODIS maps of aerosol properties determined from the Deep Blue algorithm. We use area- averaged aerosol optical thickness (AOD) over the two main dust source regions, the Taklamakan Desert and the Gobi Desert, with surface aerosol observations from the IMPROVE network in the western United States. The Deep Blue algorithm provides an enhanced measure of AOD over these highly reflective dust source regions, while the IMPROVE data provides a policy-relevant measure of aerosol concentrations in the United States. Preliminary results based on three years of data show a strong correspondence between the inter-annual variations in area-averaged AOD over the Asian deserts and seasonally averaged PM10 and fine Ca2+ mass in the western United State. This work is being extended to include spring 2000 through 2006. The additional data will provide insight into factors responsible for the relationship between these two distant but related measures of air quality. We hypothesize that these factors will include meteorological conditions, transport pathways, and satellite sampling frequency.

  6. Using MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to monitor seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of wetland vegetation in the Great Artesian Basin: a baseline for assessment of future changes in a unique ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petus, C.; Lewis, M.; White, D.

    2012-07-01

    The Great Artesian Basin mound springs (Australia) are unique wetland ecosystems of great significance. However, these unique ecosystems are endangered by anthropogenic water extraction. Relationships have been established between the vegetated wetland area and the discharge associated with individual springs, providing a potential means of monitoring groundwater flow using measurements of wetland area. Previous studies using this relationship to monitor Great Artesian Basin springs have used aerial photography or high resolution satellite images, giving sporadic temporal information. These "snapshot " studies need to be placed within a longer and more regular context to better assess changes in response to aquifer draw-downs. In this study, the potential of medium resolution MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data for studying the long-term and high frequency temporal dynamics of wetland vegetation at the Dalhousie Spring Complex of the GAB is tested. Photosynthetic activity within Dalhousie wetlands could be differentiated from surrounding land responses. The study showed good correlation between wetland vegetated area and groundwater flow, but also the important influence of natural species phenologies, rainfall, and human activity on the observed seasonal and inter-annual vegetation dynamic. Declining trends in the extent of wetland areas were observed over the 2000- 2009 period followed by a return of wetland vegetation since 2010. This study underlined the need to continue long-term medium resolution satellite studies of the Great Artesian Basin as these data provide a good understanding of variability within the wetlands, give temporal context for less frequent studies and a strong baseline for assessment of future changes.

  7. Sensitivity of growth and biomass allocation patterns to increasing nitrogen: a comparison between ephemerals and annuals in the Gurbantunggut Desert, north-western China.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Xiaobing; Zhang, Yuanming; Niklas, Karl J

    2014-02-01

    Biomass accumulation and allocation patterns are critical to quantifying ecosystem dynamics. However, these patterns differ among species, and they can change in response to nutrient availability even among genetically related individuals. In order to understand this complexity further, this study examined three ephemeral species (with very short vegetative growth periods) and three annual species (with significantly longer vegetative growth periods) in the Gurbantunggut Desert, north-western China, to determine their responses to different nitrogen (N) supplements under natural conditions. Nitrogen was added to the soil at rates of 0, 0.5, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0 and 24.0 g N m(-2) year(-1). Plants were sampled at various intervals to measure relative growth rate and shoot and root dry mass. Compared with annuals, ephemerals grew more rapidly, increased shoot and root biomass with increasing N application rates and significantly decreased root/shoot ratios. Nevertheless, changes in the biomass allocation of some species (i.e. Erodium oxyrrhynchum) in response to the N treatment were largely a consequence of changes in overall plant size, which was inconsistent with an optimal partitioning model. An isometric log shoot vs. log root scaling relationship for the final biomass harvest was observed for each species and all annuals, while pooled data of three ephemerals showed an allometric scaling relationship. These results indicate that ephemerals and annuals differ observably in their biomass allocation patterns in response to soil N supplements, although an isometric log shoot vs. log root scaling relationship was maintained across all species. These findings highlight that different life history strategies behave differently in response to N application even when interspecific scaling relationships remain nearly isometric.

  8. Ambient air SO2 patterns in 6 European cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henschel, Susann; Querol, Xavier; Atkinson, Richard; Pandolfi, Marco; Zeka, Ariana; Le Tertre, Alain; Analitis, Antonis; Katsouyanni, Klea; Chanel, Olivier; Pascal, Mathilde; Bouland, Catherine; Haluza, Daniela; Medina, Sylvia; Goodman, Patrick G.

    2013-11-01

    A detailed analysis of hourly inter-annual, seasonal and weekday-specific SO2 concentration patterns using data obtained from 6 cities involved in the Aphekom project was conducted. This type of analysis has been done for other pollutants but less so for SO2, and not in a systematic fashion for a number of European cities.

  9. Patterns of Larval Sucker Emigration from the Sprague and Lower Williamson Rivers of the Upper Klamath Basin, Oregon, Prior to the Removal of Chiloquin Dam - 2006 Annual Report

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ellsworth, Craig M.; Tyler, Torrey J.; VanderKooi, Scott P.; Markle, Douglas F.

    2009-01-01

    in larval drift at Chiloquin occurred approximately 1.5 to 2.0 hours after sunset. Nightly peak larval drift varied by location; larvae were captured earlier in the evening at sites closer to known spawning locations than sites farther away from these areas. The highest numerical catches of sucker-sized eggs were at Chiloquin indicating that this site is in close proximity to a spawning area. Numerical catches of older, more developed larval and juvenile suckers also were highest at Chiloquin. This may be due to the turbulent nature of this site, which could have swept larger fish into the drift. Proportional catches of older, more developed larval and juvenile suckers were highest at Sycan, Lone Pine, Power Station, and Fremont Bridge. This indicates these sites are located nearer to sucker nursery areas rather than spawning areas. Very few larval LRS were collected at Fremont Bridge at the south end of Upper Klamath Lake. Larval KLS-SNS densities at Fremont Bridge were the third highest of the seven sampling sites. Peak drift of larval KLS-SNS at Fremont Bridge occurred the week after peak drift of larval KLS-SNS at Williamson. Although inter-annual variation continues to appear in the larval drift data, our results continue to show consistent patterns of larval emigration in the drainage basin. In combination with data collected from the spawning movements and destinations of radio-tagged and PIT-tagged adult suckers, this larval drift data will provide a baseline standard by which to determine the effects of dam removal on the spawning distribution of endangered Klamath Basin suckers in the Sprague River.

  10. Tactile perception of nonpainful unpleasantness in relation to perceived roughness: effects of inter-element spacing and speed of relative motion of rigid 2-D raised-dot patterns at two body loci.

    PubMed

    Kitada, Ryo; Sadato, Norihiro; Lederman, Susan J

    2012-01-01

    Rigid surfaces consisting of spatially jittered 2-D raised-dot patterns with different inter-element spacings were moved back and forth across the skin at three different speeds (10-fold range). Within each psychophysical experiment, participants numerically estimated the perceived magnitude of either unpleasantness (nonpainful) or roughness of 2-D raised-dot surfaces applied to two stationary body sites (experiment 1: fingers; experiment 2: forearm). The psychophysical functions for the two types of perceptual judgment were highly similar at both body loci; more specifically, the perceived magnitude of unpleasantness and roughness both increased monotonically as a power function of increasing inter-element spacing, with the rate of growth declining at the upper end of the continuum. These results suggest that inter-element spacing is a critical determinant of the perceived magnitude of unpleasantness (nonpainful), as well as of roughness. Each perceptual judgment also increased as a function of increasing relative speed at both body loci. However, the magnitude of this effect was significantly greater for perceived unpleasantness than for perceived roughness; conversely, the speed effect was significantly greater on the forearm than on the fingers. Several possible explanations for these findings are considered.

  11. Long term (2006-2016) seasonal and inter-annual variability of soil electrical resistivity in a Laotian catchment of the OZCAR network. Impact of land use change, soil type and rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robain, Henri; Ribolzi, Olivier; De Rouw, Anneke; Silvera, Norbert; Souniaphong, Phabvilay; Soulileuth, Bousamai; Latchasak, Keooudone; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Valentin, Christian; Gaillardet, Jerome

    2017-04-01

    The MSEC(1) observatory of the critical zone in south-east Asia, which is part of the OZCAR(2) Network, has been monitored since 1999 (Laos, Thailand, Vietnam) to study the long term impact of land use changes in tropical mountainous regions, in terms of soil properties (porosity, depth, SOC, nutrients…), biodiversity (weeds, soil macro fauna), plant roots (architecture, functions,…), and transfers within the critical zone at various temporal and space scales: partition between infiltration and runoff, water quality (physical, chemical and bacteriological) and erosion processes (splash, inter-rill and rill, tillage, mass-movement). In the Houay Pano catchment located in Northern Laos, a long-term monitoring system was implemented in 2006 combining Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT), with soil and hydrological equipments to better analyse the interactions between bank and hillslopes groundwater, and streamwater, in a context of steep slopes (>50%) and rapid land use change (conversion of annual crops to teak plantation). This continuous ERT monitoring has been carried out along a representative 100 m long transect in the middle of the 65 ha catchment perpendicular to the stream. The data were collected every week during rainy season and every second week during dry season. It has been associated with hydrological monitoring (piezometers, limnimeters, gauging weirs). Such high resolution geophysical monitoring data set (approx. 900 apparent resistivity measurements for each acquisition) provides an invaluable non-invasive proxy of soil water content variations in the different layers of the vadose zone. It demonstrates: i) the influence of plant cover on water infiltration; ii) the pathways for vertical and horizontal water fluxes within the soil cover; iii) the control of soil organisation along the hillslope over the hydrological behaviour of the unsaturated part of the critical zone. (1) «Multi-Scale Environmental Changes» : http://msec.obs-mip.fr/ (2

  12. Effects of simulated daily precipitation patterns on annual plant populations depend on life stage and climatic region

    PubMed Central

    Köchy, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Background To improve the understanding of consequences of climate change for annual plant communities, I used a detailed, grid-based model that simulates the effect of daily rainfall variability on individual plants in five climatic regions on a gradient from 100 to 800 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). The model explicitly considers moisture storage in the soil. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by changing the daily mean rain (DMR, rain volume on rainy days averaged across years for each day of the year) by ± 20%. At the same time I adjusted intervals appropriately between rainy days for keeping the mean annual volume constant. In factorial combination with changing DMR I also changed MAP by ± 20%. Results Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and peak shoot biomass. Increasing DMR increased the time that water was continuously available to plants in the upper 15 to 30 cm of the soil (longest wet period, LWP). The effect of DMR diminished with increasing humidity of the climate. An interaction between water availability and density-dependent germination increased the establishment of seedlings in the arid region, but in the more humid regions the establishment of seedlings decreased with increasing DMR. As plants matured, competition among individuals and their productivity increased, but the size of these effects decreased with the humidity of the regions. Therefore, peak shoot biomass generally increased with increasing DMR but the effect size diminished from the semiarid to the mesic Mediterranean region. Increasing DMR reduced via LWP the annual variability of biomass in the semiarid and dry Mediterranean regions. Conclusion More rainstorms (greater DMR) increased the recharge of soil water reservoirs in more arid sites with consequences for germination, establishment, productivity, and population persistence. The order of magnitudes of DMR and MAP overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for

  13. The Rates and Spatial Patterns of Annual Riverbank Erosion Revealed Through Terrestrial Laser Scanner Surveys of the South River, Virginia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neal, M. A.; Pizzuto, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    Between 2006 and 2008 A.D., we completed annual surveys of two mercury-contaminated eroding banks, one forested and the other grass covered, along the gravel-bed, bedrock South River in Virginia. Gridded digital terrain models with a resolution of 0.05 m were created from bank topography data collected using a terrestrial laser scanner. The forested bank retreated nearly 1 m around two leaning trees, while elsewhere the extent of bank retreat was negligible. On the grassy bank, retreat was controlled by the creation of small overhanging clumps of turf at the top of the bank, their occasional failure, and the ultimate removal of failed debris from the bank toe. Partial autocorrelation analysis of vertically integrated bank retreat demonstrates that bank profile erosion is virtually uncorrelated at horizontal distances greater than about 1 m on both banks, a length scale of approximately 1/2 the bank height. This extensive streamwise variability suggests that widely spaced profile data cannot adequately represent bank erosion at these sites. Additional analysis of our comprehensive spatial data also indicates that traditional bank profile surveys with any spacing greater than 1 m would result in measurement errors exceeding 10%, an important conclusion for assessing annual rates of mercury loading into the South River from bank erosion. Our results suggest that 3-dimensional gridded bare-earth models of bank topography may be required to accurately measure annual bank retreat in similar river systems.

  14. Nutrient intake and nutrient patterns and risk of lung cancer among heavy smokers: results from the COSMOS screening study with annual low-dose CT.

    PubMed

    Gnagnarella, Patrizia; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Bellomi, Massimo; Rampinelli, Cristiano; Bertolotti, Raffaella; Spaggiari, Lorenzo; Palli, Domenico; Veronesi, Giulia

    2013-06-01

    The role of nutrients in lung cancer aetiology remains controversial and has never been evaluated in the context of screening. Our aim was to investigate the role of single nutrients and nutrient patterns in the aetiology of lung cancer in heavy smokers. Asymptomatic heavy smokers (≥20 pack-years) were invited to undergo annual low-dose computed tomography. We assessed diet using a self-administered food frequency questionnaire and collected information on multivitamin supplement use. We performed principal component analysis identifying four nutrient patterns and used Cox proportional Hazards regression to assess the association between nutrients and nutrients patterns and lung cancer risk. During a mean follow-up of 5.7 years, 178 of 4,336 participants were diagnosed with lung cancer by screening. We found a significant risk reduction of lung cancer with increasing vegetable fat consumption (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.80; P-trend = 0.02). Participants classified in the high "vitamins and fiber" pattern score had a significant risk reduction of lung cancer (HR = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.36-0.90, P-trend = 0.01). Among heavy smokers enrolled in a screening trial, high vegetable fat intake and adherence to the "vitamin and fiber" nutrient pattern were associated with reduced lung cancer incidence.

  15. INTER-GENERATION OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY IN BRITAIN,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The aim in the paper is to bring together, review and, as far as possible, to synthesize the research findings on inter-generation occupational ...empirical studies and other relevant work, the pattern and rates of inter-generation occupational mobility in Britain are described. They are then

  16. The influence of watershed characteristics on spatial patterns of trends in annual scale streamflow variability in the continental U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, Joshua S.; Emanuel, Ryan E.; Vose, James M.

    2016-09-01

    As human activity and climate variability alter the movement of water through the environment the need to better understand hydrologic cycle responses to these changes has grown. A reasonable starting point for gaining such insight is studying changes in streamflow given the importance of streamflow as a source of renewable freshwater. Using a wavelet assisted method we analyzed trends in the magnitude of annual scale streamflow variability from 967 watersheds in the continental U.S. (CONUS) over a 70 year period (1940-2009). Decreased annual variability was the dominant pattern at the CONUS scale. Ecoregion scale results agreed with the CONUS pattern with the exception of two ecoregions closely divided between increases and decreases and one where increases dominated. A comparison of trends in reference and non-reference watersheds indicated that trend magnitudes in non-reference watersheds were significantly larger than thos