internal climate dynamics: Topics by Science.gov

Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. PMID:20525341
Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey

2017-06-01

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.Plain Language SummaryGlobal and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916891M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916891M">Studying Climate Response to Forcing by the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode Decomposition</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander 2017-04-01 An analysis of global climate response to external forcing, both anthropogenic (mainly, CO2 and aerosol) and natural (solar and volcanic), is needed for adequate predictions of global climate change. Being complex dynamical system, the climate reacts to external perturbations exciting feedbacks (both positive and negative) making the response non-trivial and poorly predictable. Thus an extraction of internal modes of climate system, investigation of their interaction with external forcings and further modeling and forecast of their dynamics, are all the problems providing the success of climate modeling. In the report the new method for principal mode extraction from climate data is presented. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) expansion [1,2], but takes into account a number of external forcings applied to the system. Each NDM is represented by hidden time series governing the observed variability, which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. While forcing time series are considered to be known, the hidden unknown signals underlying the internal climate dynamics are extracted from observed data by the suggested method. In particular, it gives us an opportunity to study the evolution of principal system's mode structure in changing external conditions and separate the internal climate variability from trends forced by external perturbations. Furthermore, the modes so obtained can be extrapolated beyond the observational time series, and long-term prognosis of modes' structure including characteristics of interconnections and responses to external perturbations, can be carried out. In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to external factors, e.g. forecast their change in 21 century under different CO2 emission scenarios, are discussed. [1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510 [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4968852 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..286K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..286K">Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina 2016-02-01 We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015acnd.book..131C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015acnd.book..131C">Synchronous Motions Across the Instrumental Climate Record</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Carl, Peter The Earth's climate system bears a rich variety of feedback mechanisms that may give rise to complex, evolving modal structures under internal and external control. Various types of synchronization may be identified in the system's motion when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period through the glasses of an advanced technique of sparse data approximation, the Matching Pursuit (MP) approach. To disentangle the emerging network of oscillatory modes to the degree that climate dynamics turns out to be separable, a large dictionary of "Gaussian logons," i.e. frequency modulated (FM) Gabor atoms, is applied. Though the extracted modes make up linear decompositions, this flexible analyzing signal matches highly nonlinear waveforms. Univariate analyses over the period 1870-1997 are presented of a set of customary time series in annual resolution, comprising global and regional climate, central European synoptic systems, German precipitation, and runoff of the Elbe river near Dresden. All the evidence from this first-generation MP-FM study, obtained in subsequent multivariate syntheses, points to dynamically excited regimes of an organized yet complex climate system under permanent change—perhaps a (pre)chaotic one at centennial timescales, suggesting a "chaos control" perspective on global climate dynamics and change. Findings and conclusions include, among others, internal structure of reconstructed insolation, the episodic nature of global warming as reflected in multidecadal temperature modes, their swarm of "interdomain" companions across the whole system that unveils an unknown regime character of interannual climate dynamics, and the apparent onset early in the 1990s of the present thermal stagnation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2308Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2308Y">On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg 2018-03-01 Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........22M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........22M">Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Molina-Perez, Edmundo It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13A1793K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13A1793K">Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W. 2016-12-01 Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26458303','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26458303">The integration of climate change, spatial dynamics, and habitat fragmentation: A conceptual overview.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Holyoak, Marcel; Heath, Sacha K 2016-01-01 A growing number of studies have looked at how climate change alters the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on both single and multiple species; some raise concern that biodiversity loss and its effects will be exacerbated. The published literature on spatial dynamics (such as dispersal and metapopulation dynamics), habitat fragmentation and climate change requires synthesis and a conceptual framework to simplify thinking. We propose a framework that integrates how climate change affects spatial population dynamics and the effects of habitat fragmentation in terms of: (i) habitat quality, quantity and distribution; (ii) habitat connectivity; and (iii) the dynamics of habitat itself. We use the framework to categorize existing autecological studies and investigate how each is affected by anthropogenic climate change. It is clear that a changing climate produces changes in the geographic distribution of climatic conditions, and the amount and quality of habitat. The most thorough published studies show how such changes impact metapopulation persistence, source-sink dynamics, changes in species' geographic range and community composition. Climate-related changes in movement behavior and quantity, quality and distribution of habitat have also produced empirical changes in habitat connectivity for some species. An underexplored area is how habitat dynamics that are driven by climatic processes will affect species that live in dynamic habitats. We end our discussion by suggesting ways to improve current attempts to integrate climate change, spatial population dynamics and habitat fragmentation effects, and suggest distinct areas of study that might provide opportunities for more fully integrative work. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1439661-effects-ensemble-configuration-estimates-regional-climate-uncertainties','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1439661-effects-ensemble-configuration-estimates-regional-climate-uncertainties">Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R. Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=198000&Lab=OAP&keyword=Energy+AND+Prices&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=198000&Lab=OAP&keyword=Energy+AND+Prices&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> ADAGE is a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model capable of examining many types of economic, energy, environmental, climate change mitigation, and trade policies at the international, national, U.S. regional, and U.S. state levels. To investigate proposed policy eff... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP21A1403A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP21A1403A">Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J. 2008-12-01 The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940026115','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940026115">The role of sea ice dynamics in global climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hibler, William D., III 1992-01-01 The topics covered include the following: general characteristics of sea ice drift; sea ice rheology; ice thickness distribution; sea ice thermodynamic models; equilibrium thermodynamic models; effect of internal brine pockets and snow cover; model simulations of Arctic Sea ice; and sensitivity of sea ice models to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP43D..08W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP43D..08W">Modeling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Mediterranean During the Last Millennium</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A. 2017-12-01 Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2351D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2351D">On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K. 2018-04-01 The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3621426','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3621426">Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Wanamaker, Alan D.; Butler, Paul G.; Scourse, James D.; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A. 2012-01-01 Despite numerous investigations, the dynamical origins of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age remain uncertain. A major unresolved issue relating to internal climate dynamics is the mode and tempo of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, and the significance of decadal-to-centennial scale changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength in regulating the climate of the last millennium. Here we use the time-constrained high-resolution local radiocarbon reservoir age offset derived from an absolutely dated annually resolved shell chronology spanning the past 1,350 years, to reconstruct changes in surface ocean circulation and climate. The water mass tracer data presented here from the North Icelandic shelf, combined with previously published data from the Arctic and subtropical Atlantic, show that surface Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dynamics likely amplified the relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the relatively cool conditions during the Little Ice Age within the North Atlantic sector. PMID:22692542 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22692542','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22692542">Surface changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last millennium.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Wanamaker, Alan D; Butler, Paul G; Scourse, James D; Heinemeier, Jan; Eiríksson, Jón; Knudsen, Karen Luise; Richardson, Christopher A 2012-06-12 Despite numerous investigations, the dynamical origins of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age remain uncertain. A major unresolved issue relating to internal climate dynamics is the mode and tempo of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, and the significance of decadal-to-centennial scale changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength in regulating the climate of the last millennium. Here we use the time-constrained high-resolution local radiocarbon reservoir age offset derived from an absolutely dated annually resolved shell chronology spanning the past 1,350 years, to reconstruct changes in surface ocean circulation and climate. The water mass tracer data presented here from the North Icelandic shelf, combined with previously published data from the Arctic and subtropical Atlantic, show that surface Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dynamics likely amplified the relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the relatively cool conditions during the Little Ice Age within the North Atlantic sector. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA093176','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA093176">An Assessment of Team Development at the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 1980-09-01 FLIGHT DYNAMICS LABORATORY S. PERFORMING OG. REPORT NUMGER 7. AUTHOR(*) S. CONTRACT ON GRANT NUMBER(s) illiam D. Rutley, Captain, USAF _. PERFORMING ...the change from 1978 to 1980 on eleven criterion variables, employee job satisfaction, job motivation and absenteeism ; five organizational climate...variables except absenteeism . Absenteeism data were obtained from AFFDL intern~al records. The four main pro- duct divisions of AFlDL se.-ve-i as subjects </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52709','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52709">CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira; Stuart J. Davies; Amy C. Bennett; Erika B. Gonzalez-Akre; Helene C. Muller-Landau; S. Joseph Wright; Kamariah Abu Salim; Angélica M. Almeyda Zambrano; Alfonso Alonso; Jennifer L. Baltzer; Yves Basset; Norman A. Bourg; Eben N. Broadbent; Warren Y. Brockelman; Sarayudh Bunyavejchewin; David F. R. P. Burslem; Nathalie Butt; Min Cao; Dairon Cardenas; George B. Chuyong; Keith Clay; Susan Cordell; Handanakere S. Dattaraja; Xiaobao Deng; Matteo Detto; Xiaojun Du; Alvaro Duque; David L. Erikson; Corneille E.N. Ewango; Gunter A. Fischer; Christine Fletcher; Robin B. Foster; Christian P. Giardina; Gregory S. Gilbert; Nimal Gunatilleke; Savitri Gunatilleke; Zhanqing Hao; William W. Hargrove; Terese B. Hart; Billy C.H. Hau; Fangliang He; Forrest M. Hoffman; Robert W. Howe; Stephen P. Hubbell; Faith M. Inman-Narahari; Patrick A. Jansen; Mingxi Jiang; Daniel J. Johnson; Mamoru Kanzaki; Abdul Rahman Kassim; David Kenfack; Staline Kibet; Margaret F. Kinnaird; Lisa Korte; Kamil Kral; Jitendra Kumar; Andrew J. Larson; Yide Li; Xiankun Li; Shirong Liu; Shawn K.Y. Lum; James A. Lutz; Keping Ma; Damian M. Maddalena; Jean-Remy Makana; Yadvinder Malhi; Toby Marthews; Rafizah Mat Serudin; Sean M. McMahon; William J. McShea; Hervé R. Memiaghe; Xiangcheng Mi; Takashi Mizuno; Michael Morecroft; Jonathan A. Myers; Vojtech Novotny; Alexandre A. de Oliveira; Perry S. Ong; David A. Orwig; Rebecca Ostertag; Jan den Ouden; Geoffrey G. Parker; Richard P. Phillips; Lawren Sack; Moses N. Sainge; Weiguo Sang; Kriangsak Sri-ngernyuang; Raman Sukumar; I-Fang Sun; Witchaphart Sungpalee; Hebbalalu Sathyanarayana Suresh; Sylvester Tan; Sean C. Thomas; Duncan W. Thomas; Jill Thompson; Benjamin L. Turner; Maria Uriarte; Renato Valencia; Marta I. Vallejo; Alberto Vicentini; Tomáš Vrška; Xihua Wang; Xugao Wang; George Weiblen; Amy Wolf; Han Xu; Sandra Yap; Jess Zimmerman 2014-01-01 Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39049','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39049">Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Eric Post; Mads C. Forchhammer; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte; Terry V. Callaghan; Torben R. Christensen; Bo Elberling; Anthony D. Fox; Olivier Gilg; David S. Hik; Toke T. Høye; Rolf A. Ims; Erik Jeppesen; David R. Klein; Jesper Madsen; A. David McGuire; Søren Rysgaard; Daniel E. Schindler; Ian Stirling; Mikkel P. Tamstorf; Nicholas J.C. Tyler; Rene van der Wal; Jeffrey Welker; Philip A. Wookey; Niels Martin Schmidt; Peter Aastrup 2009-01-01 At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li class="active">1</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_2" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="21"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..442S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..442S">A bargaining game analysis of international climate negotiations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Smead, Rory; Sandler, Ronald L.; Forber, Patrick; Basl, John 2014-06-01 Climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have so far failed to achieve a robust international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Game theory has been used to investigate possible climate negotiation solutions and strategies for accomplishing them. Negotiations have been primarily modelled as public goods games such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, though coordination games or games of conflict have also been used. Many of these models have solutions, in the form of equilibria, corresponding to possible positive outcomes--that is, agreements with the requisite emissions reduction commitments. Other work on large-scale social dilemmas suggests that it should be possible to resolve the climate problem. It therefore seems that equilibrium selection may be a barrier to successful negotiations. Here we use an N-player bargaining game in an agent-based model with learning dynamics to examine the past failures of and future prospects for a robust international climate agreement. The model suggests reasons why the desirable solutions identified in previous game-theoretic models have not yet been accomplished in practice and what mechanisms might be used to achieve these solutions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMED21B0680S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMED21B0680S">The Urbino Summer School in Paleoclimatology: Investing in the future of paleoclimatology</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schellenberg, S. A.; Galeotti, S.; Brinkhuis, H.; Leckie, R. M. 2010-12-01 Improving our understanding of global climate dynamics is increasingly critical as we continue to perturb the Earth system on geologically rapid time-scales. One approach is the modeling of climate dynamics; another is the exploitation of natural archives of climate history. To promote the synergistic integration of these approaches in the next generation of paleoclimatologists, a group of international teacher-scholars have developed the Urbino Summer School in Paleoclimatology (USSP), which has been offered since 2004 at the Università degli Studi di Urbino in Urbino, Italy. The USSP provides international graduate students with an intensive three-week experience in reconstructing the history and dynamics of climate through an integrated series of lectures, investigations, and field and laboratory analyses. Complementing these formal components, informal scientific discussions and collaborations are promoted among faculty and students through group meals, coffee breaks, socials, and evening presentations. The first week begins with a broad overview of climate history and dynamics, and then focuses on the principles and methods that transform geographically- and materially-diverse data into globally time-ordinated paleoclimatic information. Lectures largely serve as “connective tissue” for student-centered investigations that use ocean drilling data and student-collected field data from the spectacular exposures of the surrounding Umbre-Marche Basin. The second week provides sessions and investigations on various biotic and geochemical proxies, and marks the start of student “working groups,” each of whom focus on current understanding of, and outstanding questions regarding, a particular geologic time-interval. Parallel sessions also commence, wherein students self-select to attend one of three concurrently-offered more specialized topics. The third week is an intensive exploration of geochemical, climate, and ocean modeling that stresses the integration of paleoclimate modeling and proxy data. The third week also includes the “Cioppino” conference comprised of lectures by experts from various fields that presenting “new and exciting ideas for digestion.” The course concludes with a series of lectures, discussion, and student presentations examining the relevance of paleoclimate to understanding modern climate dynamics and anthropogenic impacts. Student costs are increasingly being reduced per capita through governmental/institutional underwriting and individually through competitive awards (e.g., recent NSF USSP scholarships). Based on student and faculty evaluations, the current USSP structure appears largely optimized for our initial goal of promoting the integration of paleoclimate proxy data and modeling. Current planning efforts focus on strengthening course connections to Anthropocene issues and managing the large number of international faculty who donate their time and energy as an investment in the future of paleoclimatology. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPD..10.1101D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPD..10.1101D">Changing climatic response: a conceptual model for glacial cycles and the Mid-Pleistocene Transition</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Daruka, I.; Ditlevsen, P. D. 2014-03-01 Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and an ice volume analogous, climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2-3 frequency locking to the same obliquity cycle. The change in dynamics has been suggested to be a result of a slow gradual decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The presence of chaos in the (non-autonomous) glacial dynamics and a critical dependence on initial conditions raises fundamental questions about climate predictability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..08W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..08W">Sr/Ca and δ18O records of a coral from Sanya: reconstructions of temperature and precipitation in the northern South China Sea in the late Holocene</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wagner, S.; Xoplaki, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Zorita, E.; Fleitmann, D.; Preiser-Kapeller, J.; Toreti, A., , Dr; Sargent, A. M.; Bozkurt, D.; White, S.; Haldon, J. F.; Akçer-Ön, S.; Izdebski, A. 2016-12-01 Past civilisations were influenced by complex external and internal forces, including changes in the environment, climate, politics and economy. A geographical hotspot of the interplay between those agents is the Mediterranean, a cradle of cultural and scientific development. We analyse a novel compilation of high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Mediterranean and compare them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for three historical time intervals - the Crusaders, 1095-1290 CE; the Mamluk regime in Transjordan, 1260-1516 CE; and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion, 1580-1610 CE - when environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. ESMs provide important information on the dynamical mechanisms and underlying processes that led to anomalous hydroclimatic conditions of the past. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the three periods cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. The integrated analysis of palaeoclimate proxies, climate reconstructions and model simulations sheds light on our understanding of past climate change and its societal impact. Finally, our research emphasises the need to further study the societal dimension of environmental and climate change in the past, in order to properly understand the role that climate has played in human history. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/40507','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/40507">Dynamic Emission of CH4 from a Rice-Duck Farming Ecosystem</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Jia-En Zhang; Ying Ouyang; Zhao-Xiang Huang Huang; Guo-Ming Quan 2011-01-01 Global climatic change induced by emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities is an issue of increasing in-ternational environmental concerns, and agricultural practices and managements are the important contributors for such emissions. This study investigated dynamic emission of methane (CH4) from a paddy field in a rice-duck farming ecosystem. Three different... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46...29D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ClDy...46...29D">A conceptual model for glacial cycles and the middle Pleistocene transition</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Daruka, István; Ditlevsen, Peter D. 2016-01-01 Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the middle Pleistocene transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time-scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and a climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2-3 frequency locking to the same obliquity cycle. The change in dynamics has been suggested to be a result of a slow gradual decrease in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. The critical dependence on initial conditions in the (non-autonomous) glacial dynamics raises fundamental questions about climate predictability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24390082','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24390082">International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Cliquet, A 2014-10-01 The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3261435','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3261435">Oscillators and relaxation phenomena in Pleistocene climate theory</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Crucifix, Michel 2012-01-01 Ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere around 3 Ma (million years) ago and glacial–interglacial cycles have paced Earth's climate since then. Superimposed on these long glacial cycles comes an intricate pattern of millennial and sub-millennial variability, including Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events. There are numerous theories about these oscillations. Here, we review a number of them in order to draw a parallel between climatic concepts and dynamical system concepts, including, in particular, the relaxation oscillator, excitability, slow–fast dynamics and homoclinic orbits. Namely, almost all theories of ice ages reviewed here feature a phenomenon of synchronization between internal climate dynamics and astronomical forcing. However, these theories differ in their bifurcation structure and this has an effect on the way the ice age phenomenon could grow 3 Ma ago. All theories on rapid events reviewed here rely on the concept of a limit cycle excited by changes in the surface freshwater balance of the ocean. The article also reviews basic effects of stochastic fluctuations on these models, including the phenomenon of phase dispersion, shortening of the limit cycle and stochastic resonance. It concludes with a more personal statement about the potential for inference with simple stochastic dynamical systems in palaeoclimate science. PMID:22291227 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...80K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...80K">An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S. 2012-04-01 Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA33B2190A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA33B2190A">The value of superpower-submitted INDCs in cooperative and non-cooperative action scenarios: economic impact, dynamic risk, and temperature rise</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Augustin, C. M. 2015-12-01 As the 2015 Paris climate talks near, policy discussions are focused on "intended nationally determined contributions" (INDCs) submitted in advance of the discussions. As the major global emitters - specifically the United States and China - have already submitted their INDCs, we have a point of comparison for evaluating the relative potential impacts of the proposed targets. By applying integrated assessment models to robust, publicly available data sets,we aim to evaluate the interplay between climate change and economic development, comment on emissions reduction scenarios in cooperative and non-cooperative situations, and assess the dynamic risks of multiple regional emissions scenarios. We use both the RICE model and the C-ROADS model to examine alternative regional outcomes for emissions, climate change, and damages,under different reduction scenarios, including a scenario where geo-engineering plays a prominent role. These simulators allow us to vary emissions, population, and economic levels in China and the United States specifically to comment on the international climate risk impact of actors working jointly - or not - toward a global climate goal. In a complementary piece of analysis we seek to understand the value judgments, trade-offs, and regional policies that would lead to favorable climate finance flows. To reach an international sample of industry decision-makers, we propose a novel application of a standard discrete-choice survey methodology. A conjoint analysis requires a participant to chose between combinations of attributes and identify trade-offs while allowing the researcher to determine the relative importance of each individual attribute by mathematically assessing the impact each attribute could have on total item utility. As climate policy negotiations will consist of allocation of scarce resources and rejection of certain attributes, a conjoint analysis is an ideal tool for evaluating policy outcomes. This research program seeks to provide a commentary useful to policy makers on the most desirable outcomes of the negotiations and other international cooperation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8858P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8858P">Nonlinear Synergistic Emergence and Predictability in Complex Systems: Theory and Hydro-Climatic Applications</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia; Pires, Carlos A. L.; Blöschl, Günter 2017-04-01 Classical and stochastic dynamical system theories assume structural coherence and dynamic recurrence with invariants of motion that are not necessarily so. These are grounded on the unproven assumption of universality in the dynamic laws derived from statistical kinematic evaluation of non-representative empirical records. As a consequence, the associated formulations revolve around a restrictive set of configurations and intermittencies e.g. in an ergodic setting, beyond which any predictability is essentially elusive. Moreover, dynamical systems are fundamentally framed around dynamic codependence among intervening processes, i.e. entail essentially redundant interactions such as couplings and feedbacks. That precludes synergistic cooperation among processes that, whilst independent from each other, jointly produce emerging dynamic behaviour not present in any of the intervening parties. In order to overcome these fundamental limitations, we introduce a broad class of non-recursive dynamical systems that formulate dynamic emergence of unprecedented states in a fundamental synergistic manner, with fundamental principles in mind. The overall theory enables innovations to be predicted from the internal system dynamics before any a priori information is provided about the associated dynamical properties. The theory is then illustrated to anticipate, from non-emergent records, the spatiotemporal emergence of multiscale hyper chaotic regimes, critical transitions and structural coevolutionary changes in synthetic and real-world complex systems. Example applications are provided within the hydro-climatic context, formulating and dynamically forecasting evolving hydro-climatic distributions, including the emergence of extreme precipitation and flooding in a structurally changing hydro-climate system. Validation is then conducted with a posteriori verification of the simulated dynamics against observational records. Agreement between simulations and observations is confirmed with robust nonlinear information diagnostics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1265615-ctfs-forestgeo-worldwide-network-monitoring-forests-era-global-change','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1265615-ctfs-forestgeo-worldwide-network-monitoring-forests-era-global-change">CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; Davies, Stuart J.; Bennett, Amy C. 2014-09-25 Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamic research sites useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. The broad suite of measurements made at the CTFS-ForestGEO sites make it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. ongoing research across the network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forestmore » diversity and dynamics in a era of global change« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED33B0761G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED33B0761G">Project Zoom IN, Citizen Perspectives on Climate and Water Resources</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Glaser, J. P. 2012-12-01 Perspective on climate and water resources can come from the top, scientists sharing invaluable data and findings about how climate dynamics function or quantifications of systems in flux. However, citizens are endowed with an equally as powerful tool for insight: ground zero experience. Project Zoom In is a nascent project undertaken by Global Media Forge to empower youth, educators and scientists with tools to reach the media with locale-specific imagery and perspective of climate dynamics and evidence of anecdotal resource management of liquid gold: fresh water. Zoom In is taking root in Colorado but is designed for national/international scaling. This effort has three limbs: (1) student, scientist and educator workshops teaching invaluable video production skills (2) engaging Colorado school systems to stimulate submission of clips to full video productions to our database, and (3) embedding the findings on a taxonomic GIS interface on-line. The website will be invaluable in classrooms and link network media to individuals with firsthand viewpoints on change.; Climate and Water Resources </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013375','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013375">Influence of an Internally-Generated QBO on Modeled Stratospheric Dynamics and Ozone</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hurwitz, M. M.; Newman, P. A.; Song, I. S. 2011-01-01 A GEOS V2 CCM simulation with an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal is compared to an otherwise identical simulation without a QBO. In a present-day climate, inclusion of the modeled QBO makes a significant difference to stratospheric dynamics and ozone throughout the year. The QBO enhances variability in the tropics, as expected, but also in the polar stratosphere in some seasons. The modeled QBO also affects the mean stratospheric climate. Because tropical zonal winds in the baseline simulation are generally easterly, there is a relative increase in zonal wind magnitudes in tropical lower and middle stratosphere in the QBO simulation. Extra-tropical differences between the QBO and 'no QBO' simulations thus reflect a bias toward the westerly phase of the QBO: a relative strengthening and poleward shifting the polar stratospheric jets, and a reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4685260','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4685260">Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas 2015-01-01 Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011NatCC...1..201L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011NatCC...1..201L">Early warning of climate tipping points</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lenton, Timothy M. 2011-07-01 A climate 'tipping point' occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response in the internal dynamics of part of the climate system, qualitatively changing its future state. Human-induced climate change could push several large-scale 'tipping elements' past a tipping point. Candidates include irreversible melt of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest and shift of the West African monsoon. Recent assessments give an increased probability of future tipping events, and the corresponding impacts are estimated to be large, making them significant risks. Recent work shows that early warning of an approaching climate tipping point is possible in principle, and could have considerable value in reducing the risk that they pose. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765038">Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E; Armour, Kyle C; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Helene; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo-Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin 2018-05-15 The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0121M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0121M">Extracting Leading Nonlinear Modes of Changing Climate From Global SST Time Series</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.; Feigin, A. M.; Kurths, J. 2017-12-01 Data-driven modeling of climate requires adequate principal variables extracted from observed high-dimensional data. For constructing such variables it is needed to find spatial-temporal patterns explaining a substantial part of the variability and comprising all dynamically related time series from the data. The difficulties of this task rise from the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the climate dynamical system. The nonlinearity leads to insufficiency of linear methods of data decomposition for separating different processes entangled in the observed time series. On the other hand, various forcings, both anthropogenic and natural, make the dynamics non-stationary, and we should be able to describe the response of the system to such forcings in order to separate the modes explaining the internal variability. The method we present is aimed to overcome both these problems. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) decomposition [1,2], but takes into account external forcing signals. An each mode depends on hidden, unknown a priori, time series which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. Finding both the hidden signals and the mapping allows us to study the evolution of the modes' structure in changing external conditions and to compare the roles of the internal variability and forcing in the observed behavior. The method is used for extracting of the principal modes of SST variability on inter-annual and multidecadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as CO2, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the revealed teleconnection patterns as well as their forecast under different CO2 emission scenarios are discussed.[1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009774','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009774">Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bills, Bruce G. 1992-01-01 Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC41D..01G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC41D..01G">Siberia Integrated Regional Study megaproject: approaches, first results and challenges</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gordov, E. P.; Vaganov, E. A. 2010-12-01 Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS, http://sirs.scert.ru/en/) is a NEESPI megaproject coordinating national and international activity in the region in line with Earth System Science Program approach whose overall objectives are to understand impact of Global change on on-going regional climate and ecosystems dynamics; to study future potential changes in both, and to estimate possible influence of those processes on the whole Earth System dynamics. Needs for SIRS are caused by accelerated warming occurring in Siberia, complexity of on-going and potential land-surface processes sharpened by inherent hydrology pattern and permafrost presence, and lack of reliable high-resolution meteorological and climatic modeling data. The SIRS approaches include coordination of different scale national and international projects, capacity building targeted to early career researchers thematic education and training, and development of distributed information-computational infrastructure required in support of multidisciplinary teams of specialists performing cooperative work with tools for sharing of data, models and knowledge. Coordination within SIRS projects is devoted to major regional and global risks rising with regional environment changes and currently is concentrated on three interrelated problems, whose solution has strong regional environmental and socio-economical impacts and is very important for understanding potential change of the whole Earth System dynamics: Permafrost border shift, which seriously threatens the oil and gas transporting infrastructure and leads to additional carbon release; Desert - steppe- forest-tundra ecosystems changes, which might vary region input into global carbon cycle as well as provoke serious socio-economical consequences for local population; and Temperature/precipitation/hydrology regime changes, which might increase risks of forest and peat fires, thus causing significant carbon release from the region under study. Some findings of those projects will be presented in the report. The information-computational infrastructure is aimed to manage multidisciplinary environmental data and to generate high resolution data sets on demand. One of its key elements, optimizing the usage of information-computational resources, services and applications is the climatic web portal under development. The prototype (http://climate.risks.scert.ru/) is now providing an access to an interactive web- GIS system for climate change assessment on the base of available meteorological data archives in the selected region. SIRS education and training program is run via annual organization in the region either international multidisciplinary conference with elements of young scientists school ENVIROMIS or young scientists school and collocated international conference CITES (http://www.scert.ru/en/conferences/). All the listed above activities have an international dimension whose enlargement might significantly assist in profound understanding of regional and global consequences in on-going Siberia processes. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1034667-trade-transport-sinks-extend-carbon-dioxide-responsibility-countries-editorial-essay','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1034667-trade-transport-sinks-extend-carbon-dioxide-responsibility-countries-editorial-essay">Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Peters, Glen P; Marland, Gregg; Hertwich, Edgar G. 2009-01-01 Globalization and the dynamics of ecosystem sinks need be considered in post-Kyoto climate negotiations as they increasingly affect the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Currently, the allocation of responsibility for greenhouse gas mitigation is based on territorial emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, process emissions and some land-use emissions. However, at least three additional factors can significantly alter a country's impact on climate from carbon dioxide emissions. First, international trade causes a separation of consumption from production, reducing domestic pollution at the expense of foreign producers, or vice versa. Second, international transportation emissions are not allocated to countries for the purposemore » of mitigation. Third, forest growth absorbs carbon dioxide and can contribute to both carbon sequestration and climate change protection. Here we quantify how these three factors change the carbon dioxide emissions allocated to China, Japan, Russia, USA, and European Union member countries. We show that international trade can change the carbon dioxide currently allocated to countries by up to 60% and that forest expansion can turn some countries into net carbon sinks. These factors are expected to become more dominant as fossil-fuel combustion and process emissions are mitigated and as international trade and forest sinks continue to grow. Emission inventories currently in wide-spread use help to understand the global carbon cycle, but for long-term climate change mitigation a deeper understanding of the interaction between the carbon cycle and society is needed. Restructuring international trade and investment flows to meet environmental objectives, together with the inclusion of forest sinks, are crucial issues that need consideration in the design of future climate policies. And even these additional issues do not capture the full impact of changes in the carbon cycle on the global climate system.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438357','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1438357">Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C. The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1438357-quantifying-climate-feedbacks-polar-regions','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1438357-quantifying-climate-feedbacks-polar-regions">Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.; ... 2018-05-15 The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010E%26ES...13a1001D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010E%26ES...13a1001D">FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Djolov, G.; Esau, I. 2010-05-01 One of the greatest achievements of climate science has been the establisment of the concept of climate change on a multitude of time scales. The Earth's complex climate system does not allow a straightforward interpretation of dependences between the external parameter perturbation, internal stochastic system dynamics and the long-term system response. The latter is usually referred to as climate change in a narrow sense (IPCC, 2007). The focused international conference "Planetary Boundary Layers and Climate Change" has addressed only time scales and dynamical aspects of climate change with possible links to the turbulent processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Although limited, the conference topic is by no means singular. One should clearly understand that the PBL is the layer where 99% of biosphere and human activity are concentrated. The PBL is the layer where the energy fluxes, which are followed by changes in cryosphere and other known feedbacks, are maximized. At the same time, the PBL processes are of a naturally small scale. What is the averaged long-term effect of the small-scale processes on the long-term climate dynamics? Can this effect be recognized in existing long-term paleo-climate data records? Can it be modeled? What is the current status of our theoretical understanding of this effect? What is the sensitivity of the climate model projections to the representation of small-scale processes? Are there significant indirect effects, e.g. through transport of chemical components, of the PBL processes on climate? These and other linked questions have been addressed during the conference. The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as the amount of energy released from the Sun, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution such as the addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. These changes are likely to have influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging and not yet a solved problem. Africa is vulnerable to climate change as its ability to adaptat and mitigate is considerably dampened (IPCC, 2007). Climate change may impede a nations ability to achieve sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals, and because of that Africa (particularly sub-tropical Africa) will experience increased levels of water stress and reduced agricultural yields of up to 50% by 2020. An example of the scale of the region's vulnerability was demonstrated during the last very dry year (1991/92) when 30% of the southern African population was put on food aid and more than one million people were displaced. Climate change in Africa is essentially dependent on our understanding of the PBL processes both due to the indispensible role of the atmospheric convection in the African climate and due to its tele-connections to other regions, e.g. the tropical Pacific and Indian monsoon regions. Although numerous publications attribute the observed changes to one or another modification of the convective patterns, further progress is impeded by imperfections of the small-scale process parameterizations in the models. The uncertainties include parameter uncertainties of known physical processes, which could be reduced through better observations/modelling, as well as uncertainties in our knowledge of physical processes themselves (or structural uncertainties), which could be reduced only through theoretical development and design of new, original observations/experiments (Oppenheimer et al., Science, 2007). Arguably, the structural uncertainties is hard to reduce and this could be one of the reasons determining slow progress in narrowing the climate model uncertainty range over the last 30 years (Knutti and Hagerl, Nature Geoscience, 2008). One of the most prominent structural uncertainties in the ongoing transient climate change is related to poor understanding and hence incorrect modelling of the turbulent physics and dynamics processes in the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless, the climate models continue to rely on physically incorrect boundary layer parameterizations (Cuxart et al., BLM, 2006), whose erroneous dynamical response in the climate models may lead to significant abnormalities in simulated climate. At present, international efforts in theoretical understanding of the turbulent mixing have resulted in significant progress in turbulence simulation, measurements and parameterizations. However, this understanding has not yet found its way to the climate research community. Vice versa, climate research is not usually addressed by the boundary layer research community. The gap needs to be closed in order to crucially complete the scientific basis of climate change studies. The focus of the proposed forum could be formulated as follows: The planetary boundary layer determines several key parameters controlling the Earth's climate system but being a dynamic sub-system, just a layer of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere/ocean, it is also controlled by the climate system and its changes. Such a dynamic relationship causes a planetary boundary layer feedback (PBL-feedback) which could be defined as the response of the surface air temperature on changes in the vertical turbulent mixing. The forum participants have discussed both climatological and fluid dynamic aspects of this response, in order to quantify their role in the Earth's transient heat uptake and its representation in climate models. The choice of the forum location and dates are motivated by the role of tropical oceans and convection in the climate system and the prominent demonstration of the climate sensitivity to the ocean heat uptake observed off Cape Town. The international conference responded to the urgent need of advancing our understanding of the complex climate system and development of adequate measures for saving the planet from environmental disaster. It also fits well with the Republic of South African government's major political decision to include the responses to global change/climate change at the very top of science and technology policy. The conference participants are grateful to the Norway Research Council and the National Research Foundation (NRF) RSA who supported the Conference through the project "Analysis and Possibility for Control of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Processes to Facilitate Adaptation to Environmental Changes" realized in the framework of the Programme for Research and Co-operation Phase II between the two countries. Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens, Cape Town contribution of securing one of the most beautiful Conference venues in the world and technical support is also highly appreciated. G. Djolov and I. Esau Editors Conference_Photo Conference Organising Comittee Djolov, G.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Esau, I.NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Hewitson, B.South AfricaUniversity of Cape Town McGregor, J.AustraliaCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Midgley, G.South AfricaSouth African National Botanical Institute Mphepya, J.South AfricaSouth African Weather Service Piketh, S.South AfricaUniversity of the Witwatersrand Pielke, R.USAUniversity of Colorado, Boulder Pienaar, K.South AfricaUniversity of the North West Rautenbach, H.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Zilitinkevich, S.FinlandUniversity of Helsinki The conference was organized by: University of Pretoria Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center With support and sponsorship from: Norwegian Research Council (grant N 197649) Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4386399','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4386399">Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang 2015-01-01 Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958–2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes—more so than external climatic factors—are driving forest dynamics. PMID:25775576 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25775576','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25775576">Half-century evidence from western Canada shows forest dynamics are primarily driven by competition followed by climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zhang, Jian; Huang, Shongming; He, Fangliang 2015-03-31 Tree mortality, growth, and recruitment are essential components of forest dynamics and resiliency, for which there is great concern as climate change progresses at high latitudes. Tree mortality has been observed to increase over the past decades in many regions, but the causes of this increase are not well understood, and we know even less about long-term changes in growth and recruitment rates. Using a dataset of long-term (1958-2009) observations on 1,680 permanent sample plots from undisturbed natural forests in western Canada, we found that tree demographic rates have changed markedly over the last five decades. We observed a widespread, significant increase in tree mortality, a significant decrease in tree growth, and a similar but weaker trend of decreasing recruitment. However, these changes varied widely across tree size, forest age, ecozones, and species. We found that competition was the primary factor causing the long-term changes in tree mortality, growth, and recruitment. Regional climate had a weaker yet still significant effect on tree mortality, but little effect on tree growth and recruitment. This finding suggests that internal community-level processes-more so than external climatic factors-are driving forest dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28073478','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28073478">Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad 2016-04-01 Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19745143','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19745143">Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C; Bret-Harte, M Syndonia; Callaghan, Terry V; Christensen, Torben R; Elberling, Bo; Fox, Anthony D; Gilg, Olivier; Hik, David S; Høye, Toke T; Ims, Rolf A; Jeppesen, Erik; Klein, David R; Madsen, Jesper; McGuire, A David; Rysgaard, Søren; Schindler, Daniel E; Stirling, Ian; Tamstorf, Mikkel P; Tyler, Nicholas J C; van der Wal, Rene; Welker, Jeffrey; Wookey, Philip A; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Aastrup, Peter 2009-09-11 At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009773','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009773">Orbital, Rotational, and Climatic Interactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bills, Bruce G. (Editor) 1992-01-01 The report of an international meeting on the topic of Orbital, Rotational, and Climatic Interactions, which was held 9-11 Jul. 1991 at the Johns Hopkins University is presented. The meeting was attended by 22 researchers working on various aspects of orbital and rotational dynamics, paleoclimate data analysis and modeling, solid-Earth deformation studies, and paleomagnetic analyses. The primary objective of the workshop was to arrive at a better understanding of the interactions between the orbital, rotational, and climatic variations of the Earth. This report contains a brief introduction and 14 contributed papers which cover most of the topics discussed at the meeting. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2998W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.2998W">Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A. 2012-04-01 The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBC...2630033K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBC...2630033K">Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part IV: Towards Economic Estimations of Climate-Related Damages from the Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna The paper completes the cycle of the research devoted to the development of the experimental bifurcation analysis (not computer simulations) in order to answer the following questions: whether qualitative changes occur in the dynamics of local climate systems in a centennial timescale?; how to analyze such qualitative changes with daily resolution for local and regional space-scales?; how to establish one-to-one daily correspondence between the dynamics evolution and economic consequences for productions? To answer the questions, the unconventional conceptual model to describe the local climate dynamics was proposed and verified in the previous parts. That model (HDS-model) originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization and has a variable structure due to competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. The main advantage of the HDS-model is connected with the possibility to describe “internally” (on the basis of the self-regulation) the specific causal effects observed in the dynamics of local climate systems instead of “external” description of three states of the hysteresis behavior of climate systems (upper, lower and transient states). As a result, the evolution of the local climate dynamics is based on the bifurcation diagrams built by processing the data of meteorological observations, where the strange effects of the essential interannual daily variability of annual temperature variation are taken into account and explained. It opens the novel possibilities to analyze the local climate dynamics taking into account the observed resultant of all internal and external influences on each local climate system. In particular, the paper presents the viewpoint on how to estimate economic damages caused by climate-related hazards through the bifurcation analysis. That viewpoint includes the following ideas: practically each local climate system is characterized by its own time pattern of the natural qualitative changes in temperature dynamics over a century, so, any unified time window to determine the local climatic norms seems to be questionable; the temperature limits determined for climate-related technological hazards should be reasoned by the conditions of artificial human activity, but not by the climatic norms; the damages caused by such hazards can be approximately estimated in relation to the average annual profit of each production. Now, it becomes possible to estimate the minimal and maximal numbers of the specified hazards per year in order, first of all, to avoid unforeseen latent damages. Also, it becomes possible to make some useful relative estimation concerning damage and profit. We believe that the results presented in the cycle illustrate great practical competence of the current advances in the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, the developed QHS-analysis provides the novel prospects towards both how to adapt production to climatic changes and how to compensate negative technological impacts on environment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H33Q..03L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H33Q..03L">A Bottom-up Vulnerability Analysis of Water Systems with Decentralized Decision Making and Demographic Shifts- the Case of Jordan.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lachaut, T.; Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Talozi, S.; Mustafa, D.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Haddad, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A. 2016-12-01 Probabilistic approaches to uncertainty in water systems management can face challenges of several types: non stationary climate, sudden shocks such as conflict-driven migrations, or the internal complexity and dynamics of large systems. There has been a rising trend in the development of bottom-up methods that place focus on the decision side instead of probability distributions and climate scenarios. These approaches are based on defining acceptability thresholds for the decision makers and considering the entire range of possibilities over which such thresholds are crossed. We aim at improving the knowledge on the applicability and relevance of this approach by enlarging its scope beyond climate uncertainty and single decision makers; thus including demographic shifts, internal system dynamics, and multiple stakeholders at different scales. This vulnerability analysis is part of the Jordan Water Project and makes use of an ambitious multi-agent model developed by its teams with the extensive cooperation of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan. The case of Jordan is a relevant example for migration spikes, rapid social changes, resource depletion and climate change impacts. The multi-agent modeling framework used provides a consistent structure to assess the vulnerability of complex water resources systems with distributed acceptability thresholds and stakeholder interaction. A proof of concept and preliminary results are presented for a non-probabilistic vulnerability analysis that involves different types of stakeholders, uncertainties other than climatic and the integration of threshold-based indicators. For each stakeholder (agent) a vulnerability matrix is constructed over a multi-dimensional domain, which includes various hydrologic and/or demographic variables. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4171O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4171O">North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L. 2018-06-01 Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28733603','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28733603">Sediment transport drives tidewater glacier periodicity.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Truffer, Martin; Aschwanden, Andy 2017-07-21 Most of Earth's glaciers are retreating, but some tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures and contrary to their neighbors. This can be explained by the coupling of ice and sediment dynamics: a shoal forms at the glacier terminus, reducing ice discharge and causing advance towards an unstable configuration followed by abrupt retreat, in a process known as the tidewater glacier cycle. Here we use a numerical model calibrated with observations to show that interactions between ice flow, glacial erosion, and sediment transport drive these cycles, which occur independent of climate variations. Water availability controls cycle period and amplitude, and enhanced melt from future warming could trigger advance even in glaciers that are steady or retreating, complicating interpretations of glacier response to climate change. The resulting shifts in sediment and meltwater delivery from changes in glacier configuration may impact interpretations of marine sediments, fjord geochemistry, and marine ecosystems.The reason some of the Earth's tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures is not entirely clear. Here, using a numerical model that simulates both ice and sediment dynamics, the authors show that internal dynamics drive glacier variability independent of climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26026414','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26026414">Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L 2015-10-15 Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186">Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J 2016-09-28 Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014QSRv...96...50P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014QSRv...96...50P">Deconstructing mammal dispersals and faunal dynamics in SW Europe during the Quaternary</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Palombo, Maria Rita 2014-07-01 This research aims to investigate the relationships between climate change and faunal dynamics in south-west Europe, disentangling the asynchronous and diachronous dispersal bioevents of large mammals across geographical and ecological boundaries, analysing biodiversity and its changes through time. The analysis of local versus regional biological dynamics may shed new light on whether turnovers and ecological and evolutionary changes developed because of global climate changes and related phenomena, or because of intrinsic biological factors. The SW European Quaternary fossil record is particularly suitable for studying the role of climate change at local and regional levels because of the complex physiographic and climatic heterogeneity of the study area, the presence of important geographical/ecological barriers and the complex history of invasions of species of varying geographical origin and provenance. The data base consists of taxonomically revised lists of large mammal species from selected SW European local faunal assemblages ranging in age from the Early to the late Middle Pleistocene (middle Villafranchian to early Aurelian European Land Mammal Ages). The new biochronological scheme proposed here allows for the comparison of local turnovers and biodiversity trends, yielding a better understanding of the action of geographical/ecological barriers that either prevented the range of some taxa from reaching some regions or caused delays in the dispersal of a taxon in some territories. The results obtained provide evidence that major environmental perturbations, triggering dispersal events and removing keystone species, modified the structure of the pre-existing mammalian faunas, merging previously independently-evolved taxa into new palaeo-communities. The coupled action of climatic changes and internal biotic dynamics thus caused the Quaternary SW European faunal complexes to significantly restructure. Diachroneity in local turnover across the study area probably relates to differences in local dynamic patterns of competition/coevolution, although different manifestations of global climate changes in different geographic settings would have contributed to the scale of local bioevents. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940019903','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940019903">GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Try, Paul 1993-01-01 The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) represents the World Climate Research Program activities on clouds, radiation, and land-surface processes. The goal of the program is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime and its impact on atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. However, GEWEX is also concerned with variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment such as increasing greenhouse gases. In fact, GEWEX contains a major new international project called the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), which is designed to bridge the gap between the small scales represented by hydrological models and those scales that are practical for predicting the regional impacts of climate change. The development and use of coupled mesoscale-hydrological models for this purpose is a high priority in GCIP. The objectives of GCIP are presented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21202523-atmospheric-dynamics-mission-international-space-station-new-technique-observing-winds-atmosphere','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21202523-atmospheric-dynamics-mission-international-space-station-new-technique-observing-winds-atmosphere"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Ingmann, P.; Readings, C. J.; Knott, K. For the post-2000 time-frame two general classes of Earth Observation missions have been identified to address user requirements (see e.g. ESA, 1995), namely Earth Watch and Earth Explorer missions. One of the candidate Earth Explorer Missions selected for Phase A study is the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission which is intended to exploit a Doppler wind lidar, ALADIN, to measure winds in clear air (ESA, 1995 and ESA, 1996). It is being studied as a candidate for flight on the International Space Station (ISS) as an externally attached payload. The primary, long-term objective of the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission is to provide observationsmore » of wind profiles (e.g. radial wind component). Such data would be assimilated into numerical forecasting models leading to an improvement in objective analyses and hence in Numerical Weather Prediction. The mission would also provide data needed to address some of the key concerns of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) i.e. quantification of climate variability, validation and improvement of numerical models and process studies relevant to climate change. The newly acquired data would also help realize some of the objectives of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A31A0003Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A31A0003Z">The Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016): Results of the Supercell Test Case</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zarzycki, C. M.; Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Nair, R. D. 2016-12-01 The 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016) assesses the modeling techniques for global climate and weather models and was recently held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in conjunction with a two-week summer school. Over 12 different international modeling groups participated in DCMIP-2016 and focused on the evaluation of the newest non-hydrostatic dynamical core designs for future high-resolution weather and climate models. The paper highlights the results of the third DCMIP-2016 test case, which is an idealized supercell storm on a reduced-radius Earth. The supercell storm test permits the study of a non-hydrostatic moist flow field with strong vertical velocities and associated precipitation. This test assesses the behavior of global modeling systems at extremely high spatial resolution and is used in the development of next-generation numerical weather prediction capabilities. In this regime the effective grid spacing is very similar to the horizontal scale of convective plumes, emphasizing resolved non-hydrostatic dynamics. The supercell test case sheds light on the physics-dynamics interplay and highlights the impact of diffusion on model solutions. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140008676','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140008676">Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Shindell, Drew Todd; Racherla, Pavan; Milly, George Peter 2014-01-01 In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.1085K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.1085K">Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa 2013-04-01 Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H41D1359R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H41D1359R">Comparisons with observational and experimental manipulation data imply needed conceptual changes to ESM land models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J. 2016-12-01 The land models integrated in Earth System Models (ESMs) are critical components necessary to predict soil carbon dynamics and carbon-climate interactions under a changing climate. Yet, these models have been shown to have poor predictive power when compared with observations and ignore many processes known to the observational communities to influence above and belowground carbon dynamics. Here I will report work to tightly couple observations and perturbation experiment results with development of an ESM land model (ALM), focusing on nutrient constraints of the terrestrial C cycle. Using high-frequency flux tower observations and short-term nitrogen and phosphorus perturbation experiments, we show that conceptualizing plant and soil microbe interactions as a multi-substrate, multi-competitor kinetic network allows for accurate prediction of nutrient acquisition. Next, using multiple-year FACE and fertilization response observations at many forest sites, we show that capturing the observed responses requires representation of dynamic allocation to respond to the resulting stresses. Integrating the mechanisms implied by these observations into ALM leads to much lower observational bias and to very different predictions of long-term soil and aboveground C stocks and dynamics, and therefore C-climate feedbacks. I describe how these types of observational constraints are being integrated into the open-source International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package, and end with the argument that consolidating as many observations of all sorts for easy use by modelers is an important goal to improve C-climate feedback predictions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H53C0939Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.H53C0939Y">Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project and its Interest in Arctic Hydrology Research</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yang, D.; Prowse, T. D.; Steffen, K.; Ryabinin, V. 2009-12-01 The cryosphere is an important and dynamic component of the global climate system. The global cryosphere is changing rapidly, with changes in the Polar Regions receiving particular attention during the International Polar Year 2007-2008. The Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project is a core project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and is co-sponsored by WCRP, SCAR (Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research) and IASC (International Committee for Antarctic Research). The principal goal of CliC is to assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system. To achieve its objectives, CliC coordinates international and regional projects, partners with other organizations in joint initiatives, and organizes panels and working groups to lead and coordinate advanced research aimed at closing identified gaps in scientific knowledge about climate and cryosphere. The terrestrial cryosphere includes land areas where snow cover, lake- and river-ice, glaciers and ice caps, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground and solid precipitation occur. The main task of this theme is to improve estimates and quantify the uncertainty of water balance and related energy flux components in cold climate regions. This includes precipitation (both solid and liquid) distribution, properties of snow, snow melt, evapotranspiration, sublimation, water movement through frozen and unfrozen ground, water storage in watersheds, river- and lake-ice properties and processes, and river runoff. The focus of this theme includes two specific issues: the role of permafrost and frozen ground in the carbon balance, and precipitation in cold climates. Hydrological studies of cold regions will provide a key contribution to the new theme crosscut, which focuses on the cryospheric input to the freshwater balance of the Arctic. This presentation will provide an overview and update of recent developments of cold region hydrometeorology research activities and future challenges in arctic hydrology and climate change investigations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=kolb&pg=4&id=ED567606','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=kolb&pg=4&id=ED567606">Teaching and Learning for Intercultural Sensitivity: A Cross-Cultural Examination of American Domestic Students and Japanese Exchange Students</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Sakurauchi, Yoko Hwang 2014-01-01 Global student mobility has become a dynamic force in American higher education. Integrating international students into diverse campus environments provides domestic as well as foreign students with enriched learning opportunities. However, a diverse campus climate itself will not make college students interculturally competent. Intentional… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527">On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Reiter, E. R. 1979-01-01 Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19990080947&hterms=asian+american&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dasian%2Bamerican','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19990080947&hterms=asian+american&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dasian%2Bamerican">The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M. 1999-01-01 In this study, the NASA GEOS and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and GPCP rainfall data have been used to study the variability of the East Asian westerly jet stream and its impact on the Asian-Pacific climate, with a focus on interannual time scales. Results indicate that external forcings such as sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface processes also play an important role in the variability of the jet although this variability is strongly governed by internal dynamics. There is a close link between the jet and Asian-Pacific climate including the Asian winter monsoon and tropical convection. The atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with the jet is different from the ENSO-related pattern. The influence of the jet on eastern Pacific and North American climate is also discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C">Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E. 2017-12-01 The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC53A0503A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC53A0503A">Climate Risk Management and Decision Support Tools for the Agriculture Sector in Lao PDR, Bangladesh, and Indonesia</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Allis, E. C.; Greene, A. M.; Cousin, R. 2014-12-01 We describe a comprehensive project for developing climate information and decision support / climate risk management tools in Lao PDR, Bangladesh and Indonesia. Mechanisms are developed for bringing the benefits of these tools to both policy makers and poor rural farmers, with the goal of enabling better management, at the farm level, of the risks associated with climate variability and change. The project comprises several interwoven threads, differentially applied in the different study regions. These include data management and quality control, development of seasonal forecast capabilities, use of dynamic cropping calendars and climate advisories, the development of longer-term climate information for both past and future and a weather index insurance component. Stakeholder engagement and capacity building served as reinforcing and complementary elements to all components. In this talk we will provide a project overview, show how the various components fit together and describe some lessons learned in this attempt to promote the uptake of actionable climate information from farmer to policy level. The applied research project was led by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University with funding from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) and in close collaboration with our regional partners at the Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia Pacific (at Bogor Agricultural University in Indonesia), Indonesia's National Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Lao PDR's National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), Laotian Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), WorldFish Center, Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD), and CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900023025&hterms=worlds+oceans&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dworlds%2Boceans','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900023025&hterms=worlds+oceans&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3Dworlds%2Boceans">PIPOR - A Programme for International Polar Oceans Research</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Gudmandsen, P.; Carsey, F.; Mcnutt, L. 1989-01-01 The Programme for International Polar Oceans Research is accepted as a part of the ERS-1 mission which will be initiated with the launch of the ERS-1 earth observation satellite by the European Space Agency in 1990. It is a bipolar program with participation by institutions engaged in studies of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction and the application of remote sensing data for operational uses. The program objectives are to develop the application of microwave data for studies and modeling of sea ice dynamics and for operational uses in sea ice infested areas. As such, it is closely connected with ongoing and forthcoming research in the Arctic and the Antarctic. With sea ice being a sensitive indicator of climate perturbations, PIPOR addresses objectives of the World Climate Research Programme. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JCli...18.1227M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JCli...18.1227M">Regional Climate Simulations over North America: Interaction of Local Processes with Improved Large-Scale Flow.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Robock, Alan 2005-04-01 The reasons for biases in regional climate simulations were investigated in an attempt to discern whether they arise from deficiencies in the model parameterizations or are due to dynamical problems. Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the detailed climate over North America at 50-km resolution for June 2000 was simulated. First, the RAMS equations were modified to make them applicable to a large region, and its turbulence parameterization was corrected. The initial simulations showed large biases in the location of precipitation patterns and surface air temperatures. By implementing higher-resolution soil data, soil moisture and soil temperature initialization, and corrections to the Kain-Fritch convective scheme, the temperature biases and precipitation amount errors could be removed, but the precipitation location errors remained. The precipitation location biases could only be improved by implementing spectral nudging of the large-scale (wavelength of 2500 km) dynamics in RAMS. This corrected for circulation errors produced by interactions and reflection of the internal domain dynamics with the lateral boundaries where the model was forced by the reanalysis. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A31F0167L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A31F0167L">The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W. 2013-12-01 The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward improving their representations in numerical models and improving MJO simulation and prediction. Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized in this poster. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918727P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918727P">The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael 2017-04-01 One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPA23C1757L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPA23C1757L">The Climate Change Crisis as an International Civil Rights Issue: Forging an Alliance Between Science, Activism, and Progressive Social Movements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lynch, B. J.; Driver, S. 2011-12-01 If our scientific community wants to make real progress on the climate change and environmental crisis we must be willing to side with and fight for the oppressed. The national and international communities most ready to act - those hit hardest by the real impact of climate change in their day-to-day lives - need the political leadership of and a living, organic connection with scientists who are prepared to tell the truth and act on the truth of our science. A new generation of scientist-activist leaders and this strategic and mutually beneficial alliance with the oppressed will be necessary to wage an international, intransigent fight to enact and implement the social, political, and economic policies needed to mitigate the damage already done and prevent future environmental and human catastrophe. In the statement BAMN distributed to last year's Fall AGU conference we said, "there will be no shortage of mass struggle in the next period of history." This spring we saw the absolutely awe-inspiring social upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East in the form of waves of mass demonstrations in country after country. Many of those struggles, with demands for real democracy, for jobs and economic opportunities, for improved living conditions, continue to this day. In virtually every instance, these popular and progressive social movements have been led by youth: middle school, high school and college students. In the US and Europe we have seen the spread of student-led struggle around the defense of K-12 public education and on college campuses in defense of various programs, opportunities, and the character of the educational experience. The most dynamic force in these struggles has been the Latina/o, black, other underrepresented minority and immigrant youth who refuse to accept permanent second-class citizenship and a future devoid of hope and opportunity. We will discuss our experience as a youth-led civil rights organization presenting the issues of climate change as part of a broader, international fight against racism and inequality in order to bring the dynamism, boldness, optimism of youth and the power of an independent political program to the environmental movement. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1203..812M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AIPC.1203..812M">Non—Linear Flood Assessment with Neural Network</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Murariu, Gabriel; Puscasu, Gheorghe; Gogoncea, Vlad 2010-01-01 In our days, theoretical investigations are used in obtaining the mathematical model for the studied systems or processes. In general, the dynamics of the system are deeply nonlinear, complex or unknown. Generally speaking, such complex structure is a set of interconnected components. The common approach is therefore to start from measurements of the behavior of the system and the external influences (inputs) and try to determine a mathematical relation between them without going into the details of what is actually happening inside the system. Such strategy had known a great success during the time and it was applied for a large class of multifaceted processes. Accepting this approach, there could be investigated the climatic phenomena. In this paper is presented, in a comparative way, a non-linear water flood assessment made in a very sensitive area of the Lower Danube zone where, in the past years, a series of climatic problems have been happening. In these conditions, climatic risk factor management is a necessity. In a regular way, there could be considered and designed nonlinear models for the climatic factors' analysis by using a huge historical evidence data archive. In a previous paper we reached a notable intermediary result basing on a mathematical model constructed on internal recurrent neural network structure. Such approach had been presented considering the internal state estimation when no measurements coming from the sensors are available for system states. A modified backpropagation algorithm had been introduced in order to train the internal recurrent neural networks for nonlinear system identification. In this paper is exposed a comparative study between a numerical advances based on fluid dynamics' equations and our previous approach, based on internal recurrent neural networks (IRNN). The numerical approaching was made in order to succeed in building a physics model of a water flow evaluation and further, to achieve including the rainfall contributions. This condition is necessary for prediction and it is the first step toward a DSS—Decision Support System in the area. The relationship between the simulated results and the registered data allows considering our particular method to be useful for considered water flood assessment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2857L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2857L">Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon 2013-04-01 The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments, the WETTREG2010 driven runs show a severe detraction for all water operations, mainly related to a strong decline in projected precipitation in all seasons (except winter). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712800','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712800">Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja 2018-06-13 Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37680106A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37680106A">Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja 2018-06-01 Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5938640','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5938640">Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja 2018-01-01 Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711823O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711823O">Future Projections of Air Temperature and Precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA Domain by Using RegCM4.3.5</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent 2015-04-01 In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 - 2035, 2046 - 2065, and 2081 - 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3586608','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3586608">Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Weart, Spencer 2013-01-01 Until the middle of the 20th century, the discipline of climatology was a stagnant field preoccupied with regional statistics. It had little to do with meteorology, which itself was predominantly a craft that paid scant attention to physical theory. The Second World War and Cold War promoted a rapid growth of meteorology, which some practitioners increasingly combined with physical science in hopes of understanding global climate dynamics. However, the dozen or so scientific disciplines that had something to say about climate were largely isolated from one another. In the 1960s and 1970s, worries about climate change helped to push the diverse fields into contact. Scientists interested in climate change kept their identification with different disciplines but developed ways to communicate across the boundaries (for example, in large international projects). Around the turn of the 21st century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change institutionalized an unprecedented process of exchanges; its reports relied especially on computer modeling, which became a center of fully integrated interdisciplinary cooperation. PMID:22778431 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...39.2219H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ClDy...39.2219H">A tripolar pattern as an internal mode of the East Asian summer monsoon</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hirota, Nagio; Takahashi, Masaaki 2012-11-01 A tripolar anomaly pattern with centers located around the Philippines, China/Japan, and East Siberia dominantly appears in climate variations of the East Asian summer monsoon. In this study, we extracted this pattern as the first mode of a singular value decomposition (SVD1) over East Asia. The squared covariance fraction of SVD1 was 59 %, indicating that this pattern can be considered a dominant pattern of climate variations. Moreover, the results of numerical experiments suggested that the structure is also a dominant pattern of linear responses, even if external forcing is distributed homogeneously over the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the tripolar pattern can be considered an internal mode that is characterized by the internal atmospheric processes. In this pattern, the moist processes strengthen the circulation anomalies, the dynamical energy conversion supplies energy to the anomalies, and the Rossby waves propagate northward in the lower troposphere and southeastward in the upper troposphere. These processes are favorable for the pattern to have large amplitude and to influence a large area. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S54B..05B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.S54B..05B">Dynamics of the middle atmosphere as observed by the ARISE project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Blanc, E. 2015-12-01 It has been strongly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate all the way to the Earth's surface. A key part of this coupling occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary and gravity waves. However, limited observations prevent to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The main challenge of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe) project is to combine existing national and international observation networks including: the International infrasound monitoring system developed for the CTBT (Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) verification, the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes) lidar network, European observation infrastructures at mid latitudes (OHP observatory), tropics (Maïdo observatory), high latitudes (ALOMAR and EISCAT), infrasound stations which form a dense European network and satellites. The ARISE network is unique by its coverage (polar to equatorial regions in the European longitude sector), its altitude range (from troposphere to mesosphere and ionosphere) and the involved scales both in time (from seconds to tens of years) and space (from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers). Advanced data products are produced with the scope to assimilate data in the Weather Prediction models to improve future forecasts over weeks and seasonal time scales. ARISE observations are especially relevant for the monitoring of extreme events such as thunderstorms, volcanoes, meteors and at larger scales, deep convection and stratospheric warming events for physical processes description and study of long term evolution with climate change. Among the applications, ARISE fosters integration of innovative methods for remote detection of non-instrumented volcanoes including distant eruption characterization to provide notifications with reliable confidence indices to the civil aviation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.H42B..04I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.H42B..04I">Comprehensive Representation of Hydrologic and Geomorphic Process Coupling in Numerical Models: Internal Dynamics and Basin Evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L. 2005-12-01 Landscape morphology has an important control on the spatial and temporal organization of basin hydrologic response to climate forcing, affecting soil moisture redistribution as well as vegetation function. On the other hand, erosion, driven by hydrology and modulated by vegetation, produces landforms over geologic time scales that reflect characteristic signatures of the dominant land forming process. Responding to extreme climate events or anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface, infrequent but rapid forms of erosion (e.g., arroyo development, landsliding) can modify topography such that basin hydrology is significantly influenced. Despite significant advances in both hydrologic and geomorphic modeling over the past two decades, the dynamic interactions between basin hydrology, geomorphology and terrestrial ecology are not adequately captured in current model frameworks. In order to investigate hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic interactions at the basin scale we present initial efforts in integrating the CHILD landscape evolution model (Tucker et al. 2001) with the tRIBS hydrology model (Ivanov et al. 2004), both developed in a common software environment. In this talk, we present preliminary results of the numerical modeling of the coupled evolution of basin hydro-geomorphic response and resulting landscape morphology in two sets of examples. First, we discuss the long-term evolution of both the hydrologic response and the resulting basin morphology from an initially uplifted plateau. In the second set of modeling experiments, we implement changes in climate and land-use to an existing topography and compare basin hydrologic response to the model results when landscape form is fixed (e.g. no coupling between hydrology and geomorphology). Model results stress the importance of internal basin dynamics, including runoff generation mechanisms and hydrologic states, in shaping hydrologic response as well as the importance of employing comprehensive conceptualizations of hydrology in modeling landscape evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92R.243S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011EOSTr..92R.243S">Science initiative for international development</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Showstack, Randy 2011-07-01 A new initiative to use science to address global development challenges was launched by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on 7 July. Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER) will capitalize on competitively awarded investments to support and build scientific and technical capacity in the developing world, according to the agencies. USAID has allocated $7 million for PEER, which the agencies indicate could leverage an additional $25-50 million in NSFfunded research at U.S. institutions to focus on issues including climate change, disaster mitigation, water, renewable energy, and food security. The program is beginning with six pilot programs in Asia and Africa, including fostering a Bangladeshi seismological community, studying the impacts of land use on biodiversity dynamics in Burkina Faso, and examining climate change and integrated resource management around Agougou Natural Pond in Mali. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EOSTr..95..317B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EOSTr..95..317B">Building International Research Partnerships in the North Atlantic-Arctic Region</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Benway, Heather M.; Hofmann, Eileen; St. John, Michael 2014-09-01 The North Atlantic-Arctic region, which is critical to the health and socioeconomic well being of North America and Europe, is susceptible to climate-driven changes in circulation, biogeochemistry, and marine ecosystems. The need for strong investment in the study of biogeochemical and ecosystem processes and interactions with physical processes over a range of time and space scales in this region was clearly stated in the 2013 Galway Declaration, an intergovernmental statement on Atlantic Ocean cooperation (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-459_en.htm). Subsequently, a workshop was held to bring together researchers from the United States, Canada, and Europe with expertise across multiple disciplines to discuss an international research initiative focused on key features, processes, and ecosystem services (e.g., Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, spring bloom dynamics, fisheries, etc.) and associated sensitivities to climate changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A43J..07B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A43J..07B">Projecting Future Water Levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bennington, V.; Notaro, M.; Holman, K. 2013-12-01 The Laurentian Great Lakes are the largest freshwater system on Earth, containing 84% of North America's freshwater. The lakes are a valuable economic and recreational resource, valued at over 62 billion in annual wages and supporting a 7 billion fishery. Shipping, recreation, and coastal property values are significantly impacted by water level variability, with large economic consequences. Great Lakes water levels fluctuate both seasonally and long-term, responding to natural and anthropogenic climate changes. Due to the integrated nature of water levels, a prolonged small change in any one of the net basin supply components: over-lake precipitation, watershed runoff, or evaporation from the lake surface, may result in important trends in water levels. We utilize the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics's Regional Climate Model Version 4.5.6 to dynamically downscale three global global climate models that represent a spread of potential future climate change for the region to determine whether the climate models suggest a robust response of the Laurentian Great Lakes to anthropogenic climate change. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), the National Centre for Meteorological Research Earth system model (CNRM-CM5), and the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) project different regional temperature increases and precipitation change over the next century and are used as lateral boundary conditions. We simulate the historical (1980-2000) and late-century periods (2080-2100). Upon model evaluation we will present dynamically downscaled projections of net basin supply changes for each of the Laurentian Great Lakes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712560D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712560D">Exploring the control of land-atmospheric oscillations over terrestrial vegetation productivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Depoorter, Mathieu; Green, Julia; Gentine, Pierre; Liu, Yi; van Eck, Christel; Regnier, Pierre; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Miralles, Diego 2015-04-01 Vegetation dynamics play an important role in the climate system due to their control on the carbon, energy and water cycles. The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation is regulated by internal climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms, including fires, land use, volcano eruptions or greenhouse gas emissions. Ocean-atmospheric oscillations, affect the fluxes of heat and water over continents, leading to anomalies in radiation, precipitation or temperature at widely separated locations (i.e. teleconnections); an effect of ocean-atmospheric oscillations on terrestrial primary productivity can therefore be expected. While different studies have shown the general importance of internal climate variability for global vegetation dynamics, the control by particular teleconnections over the regional growth and decay of vegetation is still poorly understood. At continental to global scales, satellite remote sensing offers a feasible approach to enhance our understanding of the main drivers of vegetation variability. Traditional studies of the multi-decadal variability of global vegetation have been usually based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which extends back to the early '80s. There are, however, some limitations to NDVI observations; arguably the most important of these limitations is that from the plant physiology perspective the index does not have a well-defined meaning, appearing poorly correlated to vegetation productivity. On the other hand, recently developed records from other remotely-sensed properties of vegetation, like fluorescence or microwave vegetation optical depth, have proven a significantly better correspondence to above-ground biomass. To enhance our understanding of the controls of ocean-atmosphere oscillations over vegetation, we propose to explore the link between climate oscillation extremes and net primary productivity over the last two decades. The co-variability of a range of climate oscillation indices and newly-derived records of fluorescence and vegetation optical depth is analyzed using a statistical framework based on correlations, bootstrapping and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). Results will enable us to characterize regional hotspots where particular climatic oscillations control vegetation productivity, as well as allowing us to underpin the climatic variables behind this control. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2821349','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2821349">Trophic amplification of climate warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Kirby, Richard R.; Beaugrand, Gregory 2009-01-01 Ecosystems can alternate suddenly between contrasting persistent states due to internal processes or external drivers. It is important to understand the mechanisms by which these shifts occur, especially in exploited ecosystems. There have been several abrupt marine ecosystem shifts attributed either to fishing, recent climate change or a combination of these two drivers. We show that temperature has been an important driver of the trophodynamics of the North Sea, a heavily fished marine ecosystem, for nearly 50 years and that a recent pronounced change in temperature established a new ecosystem dynamic regime through a series of internal mechanisms. Using an end-to-end ecosystem approach that included primary producers, primary, secondary and tertiary consumers, and detritivores, we found that temperature modified the relationships among species through nonlinearities in the ecosystem involving ecological thresholds and trophic amplifications. Trophic amplification provides an alternative mechanism to positive feedback to drive an ecosystem towards a new dynamic regime, which in this case favours jellyfish in the plankton and decapods and detritivores in the benthos. Although overfishing is often held responsible for marine ecosystem degeneration, temperature can clearly bring about similar effects. Our results are relevant to ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM), seen as the way forward to manage exploited marine ecosystems. PMID:19740882 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC13F0707O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC13F0707O">Trust Management - Building Trust for International Cross Disciplinary Collaboration on Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Oakley, K. V.; Gurney, R. J. 2014-12-01 Successful communication and collaboration entails mutual understanding, and transfer, of information. The risk of misunderstanding and/or miscommunication between collaborating groups is tackled in different ways around the globe; some are well documented whereas others may be unknown outside particular groups, whether defined geographically or by specialism. For example; in some countries legally binding contracts define the terms of collaboration. Some regions place greater emphasis on developing trust relationships, and sometimes an official agreement is implied, such as many electronic data transfers on the web. International collaboration on climate change increasingly involves electronic data exchange (e.g. open access publications, shared documents, data repositories etc.) and with this increased reliance on electronic data a need has arisen for scientists to collaborate both internationally and cross-disciplinarily particularly with information technology and data management specialists. Trust of data and metadata on the internet (e.g. privacy, legitimacy etc.) varies, possibly due to a lack of internationally agreed standards for data governance and management, leaving many national, regional and institutional practices tailored to the needs of that group only. It is proposed that building trust relationships between cross-disciplinary and international groups could help facilitate further communication, understanding and benefits from the relationship, while still maintaining independence as separate groups. Complex international cross-disciplinary group relationship dynamics are not easily mapped and producing a set of trust building rules that can be applied to any current and future collaboration with equal validity may be unfeasible. An alternative to such a set of rules may be found in a Trust Manager, whose role is to improve mutually beneficial knowledge exchange between groups, build trust and increase future collaborative potential. This presentation will report on the potential of trust management to improve international cross disciplinary climate change collaboration. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED23F..02R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED23F..02R">The World Climate Exercise: Is (Simulated) Experience Our Best Teacher?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rath, K.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Sterman, J. 2015-12-01 Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED23F..02R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED23F..02R">Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H. 2014-12-01 Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EOSTr..93..189S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EOSTr..93..189S">Challenges in understanding past and present eolian dust dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stuut, Jan-Berend; Merkel, Ute; Rousseau, Denis-Didier 2012-05-01 Dust Workshop 2011: Processes and Quaternary History of Dust Dynamics; Bremen, Germany, 31 October to 3 November 2011 Mineral dust is now generally recognized as a key element in global climate. However, many open questions need to be addressed to reduce the large uncertainties that still exist regarding the global dust cycle. The Atmospheric Dust During the Last Glacial Cycle: Observations and Modeling initiative (ADOM; see http://www.pages-igbp.org/workinggroups/adom) of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) tackles these questions from both modern and paleo perspectives. A 3-day workshop funded by PAGES and the Center for Marine Environmental Sciences (MARUM) in Germany brought together 50 international experts on marine, terrestrial, and polar dust archives; meteorology; remote sensing; and climate modeling. The workshop aimed to bridge gaps between disciplines and to cover all temporal and spatial scales involved in dust processes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA41A2616Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA41A2616Z">Diagnosis of middle atmosphere chemistry-dynamics interactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhu, X.; Swartz, W. H.; Garcia, R. R.; Chartier, A.; Yee, J. H.; Yue, J. 2017-12-01 We apply the recently developed middle atmosphere climate feedback-response analysis method (MCFRAM) to diagnosing the temperature variations associated with chemistry-dynamics interactions in the middle atmosphere. By using output fields from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) coupled with the measurements, we identify and isolate the distinctive characteristics of different components in the observed temperature variations. Both the temperature trends associated with the anthropogenic forcing and temperature changes associated with natural and internal feedback processes are quantified based on MCFRAM defined partial temperature changes corresponding to localized radiative heating, non-localized chemical heating, eddy transport, and transport by the mean meridional circulation of energy and chemical species. In addition, the temperature responses to variations of CO2, O3, and solar flux have distinctly different spatial structures that can be systematically categorized by the eigenmodes of the generalized damping matrix derived from MCFRAM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO44A3119H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO44A3119H">Forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Halloran, P. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Hall, I. R. 2016-02-01 Paul R. Halloran, David J. Reynolds, Ian R. Hall and James D. Scourse Multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) plays a first order role in determining regional atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, with major climatic consequences. These regional climate impacts range from drought in the Sahel and South America, though increased hurricane activity and temperature extremes, to modified monsoonal rainfall. Multidecadal Atlantic SST variability could arise through internal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g., Knight et al., 2006), or through externally forced change (e.g. Booth et al., 2012). It is critical that we know whether internal or external forcing dominates if we are to provide useful near-term climate projections in the Atlantic region. A persuasive argument that internal variability plays an important role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is that periodic SST variability has been observed throughout much of the last millennium (Mann et al., 2009), and the hypothesized external forcing of historical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Booth et al., 2012) is largely anthropogenic in origin. Here we combine the first annually-resolved millennial marine reconstruction with multi-model analysis, to show that the Atlantic SST variability of the last millennium can be explained by a combination of direct volcanic forcing, and indirect, forced, AMOC variability. Our results indicate that whilst climate models capture the timing of both the directly forced SST and forced AMOC-mediated SST variability, the models fail to capture the magnitude of the forced AMOC change. Does this mean that models underestimate the 21st century reduction in AMOC strength? J. Knight, C. Folland and A. Scaife., Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GRL, 2006 B.B.B Booth, N. Dunstone, P.R. Halloran et al., Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 2012 M.E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 2009 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924607','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924607">Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M 2017-09-01 Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5597307','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5597307">Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M. 2017-01-01 Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 104 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. PMID:28924607 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMED13H..06D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMED13H..06D">The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dommenget, D. 2013-12-01 The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33J0390A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33J0390A">Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Science and Prediction Initiatives of the NOAA MAPP Program</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Mariotti, A. 2016-12-01 There is great practical interest in developing predictions beyond the 2-week weather timescale. Scientific communities have historically organized themselves around the weather and climate problems, but the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale range overall is recognized as new territory for which a concerted shared effort is needed. For instance, the climate community, as part of programs like CLIVAR, has historically tackled coupled phenomena and modeling, keys to harnessing predictability on longer timescales. In contrast, the weather community has focused on synoptic dynamics, higher-resolution modeling, and enhanced model initialization, of importance at the shorter timescales and especially for the prediction of extremes. The processes and phenomena specific to timescales between weather and climate require a unified approach to science, modeling, and predictions. Internationally, the WWRP/WCRP S2S Prediction Project is a promising catalyzer for these types of activities. Among the various contributing U.S. research programs, the Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program, as part of the NOAA Climate Program Office, has launched coordinated research and transition activities that help to meet the agency's goals to fill the weather-to-climate prediction gap and will contribute to advance international goals. This presentation will describe ongoing MAPP program S2S science and prediction initiatives, specifically the MAPP S2S Task Force and the SubX prediction experiment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814875H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1814875H">Fast-track extreme event attribution: How fast can we disentangle thermodynamic (forced) and dynamic (internal) contributions?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi 2016-04-01 Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened. First, we present our newly established method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. The method builds on a large ensemble of atmosphere-only GCM/RCM simulations forced by seasonal forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Taking the UK 2013/14 winter floods as an example, we demonstrate that the change in risk for heavy rainfall during the England floods due to anthropogenic climate change is of similar magnitude using either observed or seasonal forecast SSTs. While FAR is assumed to be independent from event-specific dynamic contributions due to anomalous circulation patterns as a first approximation, the risk of an event to occur under current conditions is clearly a function of the state of the atmosphere. The shorter the event, the more it is a result of chaotic internal weather variability. Hence we are interested to (1) attribute the event to thermodynamic and dynamic causes and to (2) establish a sensible time-scale for which we can make a useful and potentially robust attribution statement with regard to event-specific dynamics. Having tested the dynamic response of our model to SST conditions in January 2014, we find that observed SSTs are required to establish a discernible link between anomalous ocean temperatures and the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in general and the UK in particular. However, for extreme events occurring under strongly anomalous SST patterns, associated with known low-frequency climate modes such as El Nino or La Nina, forecast SSTs can provide sufficient guidance to determine the dynamic contribution to the event on the basis of monthly mean values. No such link can be made (North Atlantic/Western Europe region) for shorter time-scales, unless the observed state of the circulation is taken as reference for the model analysis (e.g. Christidis et al. 2014). We present results from our most recent attribution analysis for the December 2015 UK floods (Storm Desmond and Eva), during which we find a robust teleconnection link between Pacific SSTs and North Atlantic Jetstream anomalies. This is true for both experiments, with forecast and observed SSTs. We propose a fast and simple analysis method based on the comparison of current climatological circulation patterns with actual and natural conditions. Alternative methods are discussed and analysed regarding their potential for fast-track attribution of the role of dynamics. Also, we briefly revisit the issue of internal vs forced dynamic contributions. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B51K..06P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B51K..06P">Attributing Asymmetric Productivity Responses to Internal Ecosystem Dynamics and External Drivers Using Probabilistic Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Parolari, A.; Goulden, M. 2017-12-01 A major challenge to interpreting asymmetric changes in ecosystem productivity is the attribution of these changes to external climate forcing or to internal ecophysiological processes that respond to these drivers (e.g., photosynthesis response to drying soil). For example, positive asymmetry in productivity can result from either positive skewness in the distribution of annual rainfall amount or from negative curvature in the productivity response to annual rainfall. To analyze the relative influences of climate and ecosystem dynamics on both positive and negative asymmetry in multi-year ANPP experiments, we use a multi-scale coupled ecosystem water-carbon model to interpret field experimental results that span gradients of rainfall skewness and ANPP response curvature. The model integrates rainfall variability, soil moisture dynamics, and net carbon assimilation from the daily to inter-annual scales. From the underlying physical basis of the model, we compute the joint probability distribution of the minimum and maximum ANPP for an annual ANPP experiment of N years. The distribution is used to estimate the likelihood that either positive or negative asymmetry will be observed in an experiment, given the annual rainfall distribution and the ANPP response curve. We estimate the total asymmetry as the mode of this joint distribution and the relative contribution attributable to rainfall skewness as the mode for a linear ANPP response curve. Applied to data from several long-term ANPP experiments, we find that there is a wide range of observed ANPP asymmetry (positive and negative) and a spectrum of contributions from internal and external factors. We identify the soil water holding capacity relative to the mean rain event depth as a critical ecosystem characteristic that controls the non-linearity of the ANPP response and positive curvature at high rainfall. Further, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is shown to control the presence or absence of negative curvature at low rainfall. Therefore, a combination of rooting depth, soil texture, and climate seasonality contribute to ANPP response curvature and its contribution to overall observed asymmetry. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27141906','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27141906">[Advance to the research of the climate factor effect on the distribution of plague].</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zhang, A P; Wei, R J; Xiong, H M; Wang, Z Y 2016-05-01 Plague is an anthropozoonotic disease caused by the Yersinia pestis ,which developed by many factors including local climate factors. In recent years, more and more studies on the effects of climate on plague were conducted. According to the researches, climate factors (mainly the rainfall and temperature) affected the development and distribution of plague by influencing the abundance of plague host animals and fleas index. The climate also affected the epidemic dynamics and the scope of plague. There were significant differences existing in the influence of climate on the palgue developed in the north and south China. In the two different plague epidemic systems, the solitary Daurian ground squirrel-flea-plague and the social Mongolian gerbil-flea-plague, the obvious population differences existed among the responses of the host animal to the climate changes. Although the internal relationship between the rainfall, the flea index, the density of rodents and the plague supported the nutritional cascade hypothesis, it can not prove that there is a clear causality between the occurrence of plague and rainfall. So the influence of climate factors on plague distribution can only be used for early forecasting and warning of the plague. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5400366','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5400366">Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Hunter, Lori M.; Riosmena, Fernando 2016-01-01 Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move. PMID:28439146 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439146','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439146">Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Runfola, Daniel M; Hunter, Lori M; Riosmena, Fernando 2016-12-01 Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512041M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512041M">VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose 2013-04-01 Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of this exercise will directly provide end users with important information about the uncertainty of regional climate scenarios, and will furthermore provide the basis for further developing downscaling methods. This presentation will provide background information on VALUE and discuss the identified characteristics and the validation framework. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H33H..06B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H33H..06B">Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bartholomeus, R.; Witte, J.; van Bodegom, P.; Dam, J. V.; Aerts, R. 2010-12-01 With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.A21G0180N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.A21G0180N">Analysis of the Effect of Interior Nudging on Temperature and Precipitation Distributions of Multi-year Regional Climate Simulations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T. L.; Bowden, J. H.; Otte, M. J. 2010-12-01 There is disagreement in the regional climate modeling community as to the appropriateness of the use of internal nudging. Some investigators argue that the regional model should be minimally constrained and allowed to respond to regional-scale forcing, while others have noted that in the absence of interior nudging, significant large-scale discrepancies develop between the regional model solution and the driving coarse-scale fields. These discrepancies lead to reduced confidence in the ability of regional climate models to dynamically downscale global climate model simulations under climate change scenarios, and detract from the usability of the regional simulations for impact assessments. The advantages and limitations of interior nudging schemes for regional climate modeling are investigated in this study. Multi-year simulations using the WRF model driven by reanalysis data over the continental United States at 36km resolution are conducted using spectral nudging, grid point nudging, and for a base case without interior nudging. The means, distributions, and inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation will be evaluated in comparison to regional analyses. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUSMGC23A..07M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUSMGC23A..07M">Climate Modeling at the Austrian Weather Service (ZAMG)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Matulla, C.; Anders, I.; Auer, I. 2009-05-01 In later 2007 the Austrian Weather Service (ZAMG) established a group that shall deal with climate change modeling. Two of the group's main goals are to provide climate change scenarios for the assessment of the impact on ecosystems and to reconstruct past climate states along with their change. The former aim is to derive estimates of might happen to our ecosystems under different emission-pathways, whilst the latter goal is to better understand what has caused characteristical changes, which are to be found in proxies. Both aims can be achieved by empirical or dynamical downscaling models, which are ultimately based on the reliability of the driving GCMs results. It is well known that empirical and dynamical downscaling models do have advantages and disadvantages, which are different. As such it appears reasonable to use the approach which is better adapted to the considered question. It may be meaningful to apply empirical downscaling if long periods of time (such as substantial parts of the Holocene) are in the center of attention, whereas dynamical downscaling may be better suited to address questions that are related to decades. Up to now we were more involved with empirical downscaling that helped us to work together with scientists assessing the impact on ecosystems, as for instance, fish in a river (Matulla et al. 2007), forests (Lexer et al. 2002) or phenological phases (Scheifinger et al. 2007). After catching a glimpse of those results, we will turn to dynamical modeling. Here we would like to present findings from case studies, which are related to the more recent past. Our next target is the modelling of possible future climate conditions within the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, see e.g. Auer et al. 2007) as well as some characteristical periods throughout the Holocene as for instance the 8.2k event. This event is to be found in a variety of proxies within and also outside GAR. Auer I., Boehm R., Jurkovic A., Lipa W., Orlik A., Potzmann R., Schoener W., Ungersboeck M., Matulla C., Briffa K., Jones P. D., Efthymiadis D., Brunetti M., Nanni T., Maugeri M., Mercalli L., Mestre O., Moisselin J.-M., Begert M., Müller-Westermeier G., Kveton V., Bochnicek O., Stastny P., Lapin M., Szalai S., Szentimrey T., Cegnar T., Dolinar M., Gajic-Capka M., Zaninovic K., Majstorovic Z., Nieplova E., 2007. HISTALP - Historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the greater Alpine region 1760-2003. International Journal of Climatology, 27, 17-46 Lexer M.J., Hoenninger K., Scheifinger H., Matulla C., Groll N., Kromp-Kolb H., Schaudauer K., Starlinger F., Englisch M. (2002): The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climate change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data. Forest Ecology and Management, 162, 53-72 Matulla, C., S. Schmutz, A. Melcher, T. Gerersdorfer and P. Haas, 2007: Climatic Change impact on fish fauna for an Inner-Alpine River based on a transient AOGCM simulation, International Journal of Biometeorology, 52(2), 127-137 Scheifinger H., C. Matulla, P. Cate, A. Kahrer, E. Koch, 2007: Climate impact on plant and insect phenology in Austria (http://epub.oeaw.ac.at/3966-9inhalt). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916667D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916667D">The effect of stratification and topography on high-frequency internal waves in a continental shelf sea</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Domina, Anastasiia; Palmer, Matthew; Vlasenko, Vasil; Sharples, Jonathan; Green, Mattias; Stashchuk, Nataliya 2017-04-01 Internal gravity waves (IWs) have been recognised as one of the main drivers of climate controlling circulation, sustaining fisheries in shelf seas and CO2-pump system. High frequency IWs are particularly important to internal mixing in the shelf seas, where they contain an enhanced fraction of the available baroclinic energy. The origin, generation mechanism, propagation and spatial distribution of these waves are unfortunately still poorly understood since they are difficult to measure and simulate, and are therefore not represented in the vast majority of ocean and climate models. In this study we aim to increase our understanding of high frequency IWs dynamics in shelf seas through a combination of observational (from moorings and ocean gliders) and modelling methods (MITgcm), and test the hypothesis that "Solitary waves are responsible for driving a large fraction of the vertical diffusivity at the shelf edge and adjacent shelf region". A new high-resolution (50m horizontal) MITgcm configuration is employed to identify the generation and propagation of IWs in a regional shelf sea and subsequently identify internal wave generation hotspots by using calculated Froude number and body force maps. We assess the likely impact of changing seasonal and climate forcing on IWs with a range of different density structures. Our model suggests that under increasing stratification, the IW field becomes more energetic at all frequencies, however the increase in energy is not evenly distributed. While energy in the dominant low frequency IWs increase by 20-40%, energy associated with high frequency waves increases by as much as 90%. These model results are compared to varying stratification scenarios from observations made during 2012 and 2013 to interpret the impact on continental shelf sea IW generation and propagation. We use the results from a turbulence enabled ocean glider to assess the impact that this varying wavefield has on internal mixing, and discuss the implications this might have on future climate scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C33A1178B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C33A1178B">Dynamical adjustment of Scandinavian glacier mass-balance time series</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bonan, D.; Christian, J. E.; Christianson, K. A. 2017-12-01 Glacier mass wastage is often cited as one of the most visible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Annual glacier mass-balance is related to local climate and atmospheric circulation, as it is defined as the yearly sum of accumulation and ablation—processes that are strongly influenced by year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. Glacier response to a climatic trend can, however, be masked by internal variability in atmospheric circulation, and by non-climatic factors (such as topographic control, wind deposition, and incident solar radiation). Thus, unambiguous attribution of a negative glacier mass-balance trend to anthropogenic forcing remains challenging. Maritime glacier mass-balance records may be especially difficult to interpret due to the high winter balances from decadal-scale climate oscillations and the relatively short time series. Here we examine the influence of climate and atmospheric circulation variability on 14 Norwegian glaciers that span 20° of latitude, from southern Norway to Svalbard. We use dynamical adjustment—a statistical method based on partial least squares regression—to identify the components of variability within the mass-balance records that are associated with the time-varying sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. We find that 30-50% of the variance in the winter mass-balance records of the glaciers in southern Norway is explained by using sea level pressure as a predictor. The leading SLP predictor pattern mimics the spatial signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that winter balance is strongly influenced by the NAO. Moreover, the adjusted mass-balance records indicate a geographic trend: the southern Norwegian glaciers have significant negative trends in the summer balance that remain negative after adjustment, while the more northern glaciers have negative winter balance trends that only become significant after adjustment. We look into anthropogenic warming to explain the trends after dynamical adjustment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27063737','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27063737">A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P 2016-03-31 Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7052752-proceedings-fifth-international-offshore-mechanics-arctic-engineering-omae-symposium-volume','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7052752-proceedings-fifth-international-offshore-mechanics-arctic-engineering-omae-symposium-volume">Proceedings of the fifth international offshore mechanics and Arctic engineering (OMAE) symposium. Volume 4</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Lunardini, V.J.; Wang, Y.S.; Ayorinde, O.A. 1986-01-01 This book presents the papers given at a symposium on offshore platforms. Topics considered at the symposium included climates, Arctic regions, hydrate formation, the buckling of heated oil pipelines in frozen ground, icebergs, concretes, air cushion vehicles, mobile offshore drilling units, tanker ships, ice-induced dynamic loads, adfreeze forces on offshore platforms, and multiyear ice floe collision with a massive offshore structure. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990009996','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990009996">Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. 1999-01-01 While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3179122','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3179122">Self-enforcing strategies to deter free-riding in the climate change mitigation game and other repeated public good games</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Heitzig, Jobst; Lessmann, Kai; Zou, Yong 2011-01-01 As the Copenhagen Accord indicates, most of the international community agrees that global mean temperature should not be allowed to rise more than two degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels to avoid unacceptable damages from climate change. The scientific evidence distilled in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and recent reports by the US National Academies shows that this can only be achieved by vast reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Still, international cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions reductions suffers from incentives to free-ride and to renegotiate agreements in case of noncompliance, and the same is true for other so-called “public good games.” Using game theory, we show how one might overcome these problems with a simple dynamic strategy of linear compensation when the parameters of the problem fulfill some general conditions and players can be considered to be sufficiently rational. The proposed strategy redistributes liabilities according to past compliance levels in a proportionate and timely way. It can be used to implement any given allocation of target contributions, and we prove that it has several strong stability properties. PMID:21903930 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B23D0579A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B23D0579A">CTFS/ForestGEO: A global network to monitor forest interactions with a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Muller-Landau, H.; McMahon, S.; Davies, S. J. 2013-12-01 Forests are an influential component of the global carbon cycle and strongly influence Earth's climate. Climate change is altering the dynamics of forests globally, which may result in significant climate feedbacks. Forest responses to climate change entail both short-term ecophysiological responses and longer-term directional shifts in community composition. These short- and long-term responses of forest communities to climate change may be better understood through long-term monitoring of large forest plots globally using standardized methodology. Here, we describe a global network of forest research plots (CTFS/ForestGEO) of utility for understanding forest responses to climate change and consequent feedbacks to the climate system. CTFS/ForestGEO is an international network consisting of 51 sites ranging in size from 2-150 ha (median size: 25 ha) and spanning from 25°S to 52°N latitude. At each site, every individual > 1cm DBH is mapped and identified, and recruitment, growth, and mortality are monitored every 5 years. Additional measurements include aboveground productivity, carbon stocks, soil nutrients, plant functional traits, arthropod and vertebrates monitoring, DNA barcoding, airborne and ground-based LiDAR, micrometeorology, and weather monitoring. Data from this network are useful for understanding how forest ecosystem structure and function respond to spatial and temporal variation in abiotic drivers, parameterizing and evaluating ecosystem and earth system models, aligning airborne and ground-based measurements, and identifying directional changes in forest productivity and composition. For instance, CTFS/ForestGEO data have revealed that solar radiation and night-time temperature are important drivers of aboveground productivity in moist tropical forests; that tropical forests are mixed in terms of productivity and biomass trends over the past couple decades; and that the composition of Panamanian forests has shifted towards more drought-tolerant species. Ongoing monitoring will be vital to understanding global forest dynamics in an era of climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24955649','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24955649">Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François 2014-01-01 Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.U23A..04F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.U23A..04F">Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Fraisse, C. 2014-12-01 AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP44C..03D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP44C..03D">Biogeochemical Cycling and Sea Ice Dynamics in the Bering Sea across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Detlef, H.; Sosdian, S. M.; Belt, S. T.; Smik, L.; Lear, C. H.; Hall, I. R.; Kender, S.; Leng, M. J.; Husum, K.; Cabedo-Sanz, P. 2017-12-01 Today the Bering Sea is characterized by high primary productivity (PP) along the eastern shelf, maintained by CO2 and nutrient rich upwelled deep waters and nutrient release during spring sea ice melting. As such, low oxygen concentrations are pervasive in mid-depth waters. Changes in ventilation and export productivity in the past have been shown to impact this oxygen minimum zone. On glacial/interglacial (G/IG) timescales sea ice formation plays a pivotal role on intermediate water ventilation with evidence pointing to the formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) in the Bering Sea during Pleistocene glacial intervals. In addition, sea ice plays a significant role in both long- and short-term climate change via associated feedback mechanisms. Thus, records of sea ice dynamics and biogeochemical cycling in the Bering Sea are necessary to fully understand the interaction between PP, circulation patterns, and past G/IG climates with potential implications for the North Pacific carbon cycle. Here we use a multi-proxy approach to study sea ice dynamics and bottom water oxygenation, across three intervals prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, 1.2-0.7 Ma) from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343. The MPT, most likely driven by internal climate mechanisms, is ideal to study changes in sea ice dynamics and sedimentary redox conditions on orbital timescales and to investigate the implications for associated feedback mechanisms. The sea ice record, based on various biomarkers, including IP25, shows substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT and the occurrence of a late-glacial/deglacial sea ice spike, with consequences for glacial NPIW formation and land glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. U/Mn of foraminiferal authigenic coatings, a novel proxy for bottom water oxygenation, also shows distinct variability on G/IG timescales across the MPT, most likely a result of PP and water mass changes in relation to sea ice dynamics. Additional records of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and biogenic opal accumulation rates further elucidate the influence of PP on U/Mn, which can help to investigate the strength of NPIW formation along the eastern Bering slope, important for CO2 outgassing and abyssal North Pacific carbon storage. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29628526','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29628526">The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert 2017-11-01 Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27707507','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27707507">Rift Valley fever trasmission dynamics described by compartmental models.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Danzetta, Maria Luisa; Bruno, Rossana; Sauro, Francesca; Savini, Lara; Calistri, Paolo 2016-11-01 Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important zoonotic Transboundary Animal Diseases able to cross international borders and cause devastating effect on animal health and food security. Climate changes and the presence of competent vectors in the most of the current RVF-free temperate countries strongly support the inclusion of RVF virus (RVFV) among the most significant emerging viral threats for public and animal health. The transmission of RVFV is driven by complex eco-climatic factors making the epidemiology of RVF infection difficult to study and to understand. Mathematical, statistical and spatial models are often used to explain the mechanisms underlying these biological processes, providing new and effective tools to plan measures for public health protection. In this paper we performed a systematic literature review on RVF published papers with the aim of identifying and describing the most recent papers developing compartmental models for the study of RVFV transmission dynamics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20080722','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20080722">High skill in low-frequency climate response through fluctuation dissipation theorems despite structural instability.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Majda, Andrew J; Abramov, Rafail; Gershgorin, Boris 2010-01-12 Climate change science focuses on predicting the coarse-grained, planetary-scale, longtime changes in the climate system due to either changes in external forcing or internal variability, such as the impact of increased carbon dioxide. The predictions of climate change science are carried out through comprehensive, computational atmospheric, and oceanic simulation models, which necessarily parameterize physical features such as clouds, sea ice cover, etc. Recently, it has been suggested that there is irreducible imprecision in such climate models that manifests itself as structural instability in climate statistics and which can significantly hamper the skill of computer models for climate change. A systematic approach to deal with this irreducible imprecision is advocated through algorithms based on the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT). There are important practical and computational advantages for climate change science when a skillful FDT algorithm is established. The FDT response operator can be utilized directly for multiple climate change scenarios, multiple changes in forcing, and other parameters, such as damping and inverse modelling directly without the need of running the complex climate model in each individual case. The high skill of FDT in predicting climate change, despite structural instability, is developed in an unambiguous fashion using mathematical theory as guidelines in three different test models: a generic class of analytical models mimicking the dynamical core of the computer climate models, reduced stochastic models for low-frequency variability, and models with a significant new type of irreducible imprecision involving many fast, unstable modes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/245401-heinrich-type-glacial-surges-low-order-dynamical-climate-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/245401-heinrich-type-glacial-surges-low-order-dynamical-climate-model">Heinrich-type glacial surges in a low-order dynamical climate model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Verbitsky, M.; Saltzman, B. 1994-07-01 Recent studies suggest the occurrence of sporadic episodes during which the ice streams that discharge ice sheets become enormously active, producing large numbers of icebergs (reflected in North Atlantic sea cores as {open_quotes}Heinrich events{close_quotes}) and possibly causing the partial collapse of the ice sheets. To simulate the mechanism of implied internal thermo-hydrodynamical instability in the context of a more general paleoclimate dynamics model (PDM), a new sliding-catastrophe function that can account for ice-sheet surges in terms of the thickness, density, viscosity, heat-capacity. and heat-conductivity of ice is introduced. Analysis suggests these events might be of three possible kinds: the firstmore » occurs in periods of glacial maximum when temperature conditions on the ice surface are extremely cold, but internal friction within bottom boundary layer is also at its maximum and is strong enough to melt ice and cause its surge. The second may happen during an interglacial, when the ice thickness is small but relatively warm climate conditions on the upper surface of ice can be easily advected with the flow of ice to the bottom where even a small additional heating due to friction may cause melting. The third and, perhaps, most interesting type is one that may occur during ice sheet growth: in this period particles of ice reaching the bottom {open_quotes}remember{close_quotes} the warm temperature conditions of the previous interglacial and additional heating due to increasing friction associated with the growing ice sheet may again cause melting. This third introduces the interesting possibility that earlier CO{sub 2} concentrations may be as important for the present-day climate as its current value. According to our model the climate system seems more vulnerable to surges during the penultimate interglacial period than in present one contributing to an explanation of the recent results of the Greenland Ice Core Project. 18 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUSM.U21B..01I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUSM.U21B..01I">Ninety Years of International Cooperation in Geophysics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ismail-Zadeh, A.; Beer, T. 2009-05-01 Because applicable physical, chemical, and mathematical studies of the Earth system must be both interdisciplinary and international, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) was formed in 1919 as an non-governmental, non-profit organization dedicated to advancing, promoting, and communicating knowledge of the Earth system, its space environment, and the dynamical processes causing change. The Union brings together eight International Associations that address different disciplines of Earth sciences. Through these Associations, IUGG promotes and enables studies in the geosciences by providing a framework for collaborative research and information exchange, by organizing international scientific assemblies worldwide, and via research publications. Resolutions passed by assemblies of IUGG and its International Associations set geophysical standards and promote issues of science policy on which national members agree. IUGG has initiated and/or vigorously supported collaborative international efforts that have led to highly productive worldwide interdisciplinary research programs, such as the International Geophysical Year and subsequent International Years (IPY, IYPE, eGY, and IHY), International Lithosphere Programme, World Climate Research Programme, Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, and Integrated Research on Risk Disaster. IUGG is inherently involved in the projects and programs related to climate change, global warming, and related environmental impacts. One major contribution has been the creation, through the International Council for Science (ICSU), of the World Data Centers and the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis Services. These are being transformed to the ICSU World Data System, from which the data gathered during the major programs and data products will be available to researchers everywhere. IUGG cooperates with UNESCO, WMO, and some other U.N. and non-governmental organizations in the study of natural catastrophes, climate dynamics, and in geodetic, hydrological, meteorological, oceanographic, seismological, and volcanological research. IUGG also places particular emphasis on the scientific problems of economically less-developed countries by sponsoring activities relevant to their scientific needs (e.g. Geosciences in Africa, Water Resources, Health and Well-Being etc.) The American Geophysical Union was established as the U.S. National Committee for IUGG in 1919 and today has become a distinguished union of individual geoscientists around the world. Several regional geoscience societies also evolved during the last several decades, most prominent being the European Geosciences Union and the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society. These, and some other national and regional geophysical societies, together with IUGG play a strong part in the international cooperation and promotion of geophysical sciences. At the same time the "geosciences" space is getting crowded, and there is a lot of overlap. International linkages between IUGG, AGU, EGU and other geophysical societies as well as their linkage with International Scientific Unions, that comprise the GeoUnions, are going to become more and more important. Working together is going to be more fruitful than territorial disputes. But what mechanisms can be used to encourage relationships between the international, national and regional geophysical and geoscientific bodies? We will discuss some possibilities on how to come together, to develop and to implement joint programs, research meeting, open forums, and policy statements. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUSMPP51A..01X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUSMPP51A..01X">Coupled dynamics that determine the position and variability of the ITCZ</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Xie, S.; Miyama, T.; Wang, Y.; Xu, H.; de Szoeke, S. 2006-05-01 The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is displaced north of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as a result of asymmetry in continental geometry and air-sea interactions. This latitudinal asymmetry plays an important role in shaping the equatorial annual cycle, the seasonality of the equatorial mode in both the ocean basins, and the tropical Atlantic meridional mode. Despite its climatic importance, the northward- displaced ITCZ is poorly simulated in state-of-the-art global climate models, casting doubts on their simulations of the past and current climate and projection of future climate. A regional ocean-atmosphere model has been developed to study the effects of external influences (e.g., high- latitude cooling in the northern North Atlantic) and internal feedback on the Pacific ITCZ. The regional ocean- atmosphere model (ROAM) reproduces salient features of eastern Pacific climate, including a northward- displaced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) collocated with a zonal band of high SSTs, a low-cloud deck in the Southeast Pacific, the equatorial cold tongue and its annual cycle. The model climate - such as the position of the ITCZ, equatorial annual cycle and maximum SST - is sensitive to the treatment of low cloud. In another experiment where tropical North Atlantic SST is lowered by 2C, equatorial Pacific SST decreases by up to 3C in January-April but changes much less in other seasons, resulting in a weakened equatorial annual cycle. Central American mountains, poorly resolved in global models, appear to play an important role in this cross-basin interaction. The coupled dynamics of the ITCZ in the model and its utility to downscale coarse- resolution paleoclimate simulations will be discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.8129B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.8129B">Network for the Detection of Mesopause Change (NDMC): What can we learn from airglow measurements in terms of better understanding atmospheric dynamics?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bittner, Michael 2013-04-01 The international Network for the Detection of Mesopause Change (NDMC, http://wdc.dlr.de/ndmc) is a global program with the mission to promote international cooperation among research groups investigating the mesopause region (80-100 km) with the goal of early identification of changing climate signals. NDMC is contributing to the European Project "Atmospheric dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe, ARISE". Measurements of the airglow at the mesopause altitude region (80-100km) from most of the European NDMC stations including spectro-photometers and imagers allow monitoring atmospheric variability at time scales comprising long-term trends, annual and seasonal variability, planetary and gravity waves and infrasonic signals. The measurements also allow validating satellite-based measurements such as from the TIMED-SABER instrument. Examples will be presented for airglow measurements and for related atmospheric dynamics analysis on the abovementioned spatio-temporal scales and comparisons with satellite-based instruments as well as with LIDAR soundings in order to demonstrate the contribution of NDMC to the ARISE project. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B33F..02A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B33F..02A">Interactions of forest disturbance-recovery dynamics with a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Miller, A. D.; Tepley, A. J.; Bennett, A. C.; Wang, M. 2015-12-01 As the climate changes, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics in forests worldwide are likely to result in significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to the climate system. Climate shapes forest disturbance events including tree mortality and fire, with consequent climate feedbacks. For instance, in forests globally, drought increases tree mortality rates, having a stronger impact on larger trees and resulting in greater feedbacks to climate change than would occur if drought sensitivities were equal across tree size classes. Forest regeneration and associated biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks are also shaped by climate: across the tropics the rate of biomass accumulation is faster in everwet than in seasonally dry climates, and in the Klamath region (N California / S Oregon), post-fire vegetation dynamics and microclimate are shaped by aridity. Forest recovery dynamics will be affected by elevated CO2 and climate change; for instance, models predict that forest regeneration rate, successional dynamics, and climate feedbacks will all be altered under elevated CO2. In combination, climatic impacts on disturbance and recovery can result in dramatic shifts in forest cover on the landscape level. For instance, in fire-prone forested landscapes, forest cover decreases with increasing frequency of high-severity fire and decreasing forest recovery rate, both of which could be altered by climate change, producing rapid loss of forest on the landscape level. Such effects may be amplified by the existence of alternative stable states, which can cause systems to experience non-reversible changes in cover type. Critical transitions in landscape-level forest cover would have significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks. Thus, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics under a changing climate may have sudden and dramatic impacts on forest-climate interactions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616526D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1616526D">Integrating SPOT-VEGETATION 13-yr time series and land-surface modelling to forecast the terrestrial carbon dynamics in a changing climate - The VEGECLIM project: achievements and lessons learned</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Defourny, Pierre; Verbeeck, Hans; Moreau, Inès; De Weirdt, Marjolein; Verhegghen, Astrid; Kibambe-Lubamba, Jean-Paul; Jungers, Quentin; Maignan, Fabienne; Najdovski, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; MacBean, Natasha; Peylin, Philippe 2014-05-01 Vegetation is a major carbon sink and is as such a key component of the international response to climate change caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, anthropogenic disturbances like deforestation are the primary mechanism that changes ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources, and are hardly included in the current carbon modelling approaches. Moreover, in tropical regions, the seasonal/interannual variability of carbon fluxes is still uncertain and a weak or even no seasonality is taken into account in global vegetation models. In the context of climate change and mitigation policies like "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries" (REDD), it is particularly important to be able to quantify and forecast the vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes in these regions. The overall objective of the VEGECLIM project is to increase our knowledge on the terrestrial carbon cycle in tropical regions and to improve the forecast of the vegetation dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes under different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. Such an approach aims to determine whether the African terrestrial carbon balance will remain a net sink or could become a carbon source by the end of the century, according to different climate-change and deforestation scenarios. The research strategy is to integrate the information of the land surface characterizations obtained from 13 years of consistent SPOT-VEGETATION time series (land cover, vegetation phenology through vegetation indices such as the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)) as well as in-situ carbon flux data into the process based ORCHIDEE global vegetation model, capable of simulating vegetation dynamics and carbon balance. Key challenge of this project was to bridge the gap between the land cover and the land surface model teams. Several improvements of the ORCHIDEE model have been realized such as a new seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests, the introduction of spatial soil phosphorus to improve the spatial distribution of simulated woody biomass and an assimilation of smoothed seasonal pattern of satellite-based EVI used as a proxy to vegetation productivity. The outputs of the ORCHIDEE simulations over both Amazon and Congo Basins are discussed with regards to the observed phenology by remote sensing. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5608457','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5608457">International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia 2016-01-01 Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. PMID:28943813 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28943813','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28943813">International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia 2017-05-01 Research often assumes that, in rural areas of developing countries, adverse climatic conditions increase (climate driver mechanism) rather than reduce (climate inhibitor mechanism) migration, and that the impact of climate on migration is moderated by changes in agricultural productivity (agricultural pathway). Using representative census data in combination with high-resolution climate data derived from the novel Terra Populus system, we explore the climate-migration relationship in rural Burkina Faso and Senegal. We construct four threshold-based climate measures to investigate the effect of heat waves, cold snaps, droughts and excessive precipitation on the likelihood of household-level international outmigration. Results from multi-level logit models show that excessive precipitation increases international migration from Senegal while heat waves decrease international mobility in Burkina Faso, providing evidence for the climate inhibitor mechanism. Consistent with the agricultural pathway, interaction models and results from a geographically weighted regression (GWR) reveal a conditional effect of droughts on international outmigration from Senegal, which becomes stronger in areas with high levels of groundnut production. Moreover, climate change effects show a clear seasonal pattern, with the strongest effects appearing when heat waves overlap with the growing season and when excessive precipitation occurs prior to the growing season. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG34A..08H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG34A..08H">Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P. 2017-12-01 Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016QuRes..86....1W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016QuRes..86....1W">Direct versus indirect climate controls on Holocene diatom assemblages in a sub-tropical deep, alpine lake (Lugu Hu, Yunnan, SW China)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, Qian; Yang, Xiangdong; Anderson, Nicholas John; Dong, Xuhui 2016-07-01 The reconstruction of Holocene environmental changes in lakes on the plateau region of southwest China provides an understanding of how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. Fossil diatom assemblages were investigated from an 11,000-year lake sediment core from a deep, alpine lake (Lugu Hu) in southwest China, an area strongly influenced by the southwest (or the Indian) summer monsoon. Changes in diatom assemblage composition, notably the abundance of the two dominant planktonic species, Cyclotella rhomboideo-elliptica and Cyclostephanos dubius, reflect the effects of climate variability on nutrient dynamics, mediated via thermal stratification (internal nutrient cycling) and catchment-vegetation processes. Statistical analyses of the climate-diatom interactions highlight the strong effect of changing orbitally-induced solar radiation during the Holocene, presumably via its effect on the lake's thermal budget. In a partial redundancy analysis, climate (solar insolation) and proxies reflecting catchment process (pollen percentages, C/N ratio) were the most important drivers of diatom ecological change, showing the strong effects of climate-catchment-vegetation interactions on lake functioning. This diatom record reflects long-term ontogeny of the lake-catchment ecosystem and suggests that climatic changes (both temperature and precipitation) impact lake ecology indirectly through shifts in thermal stratification and catchment nutrient exports. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A22B..01D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A22B..01D">New Perspectives on the Role of Internal Variability in Regional Climate Change and Climate Model Evaluation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Deser, C. 2017-12-01 Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMEP53B1734S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMEP53B1734S">Climate change influence on the internal structure of talus slopes in the Arctic - A case study from the southern Spitsbergen, Norway</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Senderak, K.; Kondracka, M.; Gądek, B. 2017-12-01 Talus slopes are present in all geographical altitudes, but the most active and dynamic slopes occur in high-mountain and polar areas. Spitsbergen, Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic, combines these two environments, therefore, the talus slopes develop in specific environmental conditions that have changed since the beginning of deglaciation. On Spitsbergen, which is 60% glaciated, talus slope evolution depends frequently on the interaction with glaciers, as well as the size of sediment supply area, the lithology, and the intensive of rock weathering. The warming of climate in the Arctic cause the identifiable changes in the internal structures of talus slopes associated with i.e. the melting of glaciers and the high activity of many morphogenetic processes on slope surface. The identification of these changes is a key to understanding of climate change influence (direct and indirect influence) on talus slope evolution. Our work presents the results of research, mainly based on the measurements using electrical resistivity tomography method (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar method (GPR), which were made on the talus slopes of southern Spitsbergen in the vicinity of Polish Polar Station in Hornsund. The geophysical surveys and geomorphological observations show that the climatic factor plays the significant role in the development of slopes, what is clearly visible when analyzing the whole slope systems in the selected glacial valleys (partly glaciated). The differences in the internal structure can depend on distance from the glacier and age of form. This mainly concerns the volume of buried glacial ice in slope material, the thickness of talus slopes, the depth of permafrost and active layer, the stored sedimentological structures including e.g. the traces of fresh material supply. New data on the internal structure of talus slopes developing in the present glaciated area allow for discussions on the talus slope evolution, which, according to the authors, needs to be detailed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29087302','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29087302">Nasal airflow simulations suggest convergent adaptation in Neanderthals and modern humans.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> de Azevedo, S; González, M F; Cintas, C; Ramallo, V; Quinto-Sánchez, M; Márquez, F; Hünemeier, T; Paschetta, C; Ruderman, A; Navarro, P; Pazos, B A; Silva de Cerqueira, C C; Velan, O; Ramírez-Rozzi, F; Calvo, N; Castro, H G; Paz, R R; González-José, R 2017-11-21 Both modern humans (MHs) and Neanderthals successfully settled across western Eurasian cold-climate landscapes. Among the many adaptations considered as essential to survival in such landscapes, changes in the nasal morphology and/or function aimed to humidify and warm the air before it reaches the lungs are of key importance. Unfortunately, the lack of soft-tissue evidence in the fossil record turns difficult any comparative study of respiratory performance. Here, we reconstruct the internal nasal cavity of a Neanderthal plus two representatives of climatically divergent MH populations (southwestern Europeans and northeastern Asians). The reconstruction includes mucosa distribution enabling a realistic simulation of the breathing cycle in different climatic conditions via computational fluid dynamics. Striking across-specimens differences in fluid residence times affecting humidification and warming performance at the anterior tract were found under cold/dry climate simulations. Specifically, the Asian model achieves a rapid air conditioning, followed by the Neanderthals, whereas the European model attains a proper conditioning only around the medium-posterior tract. In addition, quantitative-genetic evolutionary analyses of nasal morphology provided signals of stabilizing selection for MH populations, with the removal of Arctic populations turning covariation patterns compatible with evolution by genetic drift. Both results indicate that, departing from important craniofacial differences existing among Neanderthals and MHs, an advantageous species-specific respiratory performance in cold climates may have occurred in both species. Fluid dynamics and evolutionary biology independently provided evidence of nasal evolution, suggesting that adaptive explanations regarding complex functional phenotypes require interdisciplinary approaches aimed to quantify both performance and evolutionary signals on covariation patterns. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AWUTP..58...64C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AWUTP..58...64C">Clouds and the Near-Earth Environment: Possible Links</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Condurache-Bota, Simona; Voiculescu, Mirela; Dragomir, Carmelia 2015-12-01 Climate variability is a hot topic not only for scientists and policy-makers, but also for each and every one of us. The anthropogenic activities are considered to be responsible for most climate change, however there are large uncertainties about the magnitude of effects of solar variability and other extraterrestrial influences, such as galactic cosmic rays on terrestrial climate. Clouds play an important role due to feedbacks of the radiation budget: variation of cloud cover/composition affects climate, which, in turn, affects cloud cover via atmospheric dynamics and sea temperature variations. Cloud formation and evolution are still under scientific scrutiny, since their microphysics is still not understood. Besides atmospheric dynamics and other internal climatic parameters, extraterrestrial sources of cloud cover variation are considered. One of these is the solar wind, whose effect on cloud cover might be modulated by the global atmospheric electrical circuit. Clouds height and composition, their seasonal variation and latitudinal distribution should be considered when trying to identify possible mechanisms by which solar energy is transferred to clouds. The influence of the solar wind on cloud formation can be assessed also through the ap index - the geomagnetic storm index, which can be readily connected with interplanetary magnetic field, IMF structure. This paper proposes to assess the possible relationship between both cloud cover and solar wind proxies, as the ap index, function of cloud height and composition and also through seasonal studies. The data covers almost three solar cycles (1984-2009). Mechanisms are looked for by investigating observed trends or correlation at local/seasonal scale </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3910N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3910N">Tracing society in climate change: Societal negotiations and physical dynamics of water under climate change conditions in the Cordillera Blanca region, Peru</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Neuburger, Martina; Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Maussion, Fabien; Singer, Katrin; Kaser, Georg 2017-04-01 Natural scientists observe and project changes in precipitation and temperature at different spatio-temporal scales and investigate impacts on glaciers and hydrological regimes. Simultaneously, social groups experience ecological phenomena as linked to climate change and integrate them into their understanding of nature and their logics of action, while political actors refer to scientific results as legitimization to focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies on global, national and regional/local level. However, natural and socio-political changes on various scales (regarding time and space) are not directly interlinked, but are communicated by energy and material flows, by discourses, power relations and institutional regulations. In this context, it remains still unclear how natural dynamics are (dis)entangled with societal processes in their historical dimensions and in their interrelations from global via national to regional and local scales. Considering the Cordillera Blanca region in Peru as an example, we analyze the intertwining of scales (global, national, regional, local) and spheres (natural, political, societal) to detect entanglements and disconnections of observed processes. Using the methodology of a time line, we present precipitation variability and glacier recession at different scales, estimate qualitative water availability and investigate the links to the implementation of international and national political programs on climate change adaptation in the Cordillera Blanca region focusing on water and agrarian programs. Finally, we include supposedly contradictory reports of rural population on climate change and related impacts on water availability and agricultural production to analyze the (dis)entanglement due to changing power relations and dominant discourses. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC31D..08T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC31D..08T">US Food Security and Climate Change: Mid-Century Projections of Commodity Crop Production by the IMPACT Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Takle, E. S.; Gustafson, D. I.; Beachy, R.; Nelson, G. C.; Mason-D'Croz, D.; Palazzo, A. 2013-12-01 Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. The lack of additional arable land and availability of freshwater have long been constraints on agriculture. Changes in trends of weather conditions that challenge physiological limits of crops, as projected by global climate models, are expected to exacerbate the global food challenge toward the middle of the 21st century. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. We use the DSSAT crop modeling suite, together with mid-century projections of four AR4 global models, as input to the International Food Policy Research Institute IMPACT model to project the impact of climate change on food security through the year 2050 for internationally traded crops. IMPACT is an iterative model that responds to endogenous and exogenous drivers to dynamically solve for the world prices that ensure global supply equals global demand. The modeling methodology reconciles the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate through equilibrium-driven relationships at a national level with detailed models of biophysical processes at high spatial resolution. The analysis presented here suggests that climate change in the first half of the 21st century does not represent a near-term threat to food security in the US due to the availability of adaptation strategies (e.g., loss of current growing regions is balanced by gain of new growing regions). However, as climate continues to trend away from 20th century norms current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to enable agriculture to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios from higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly precipitation) is a limitation to impact studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.B32B..06B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.B32B..06B">Reduced Microbial Resilience after a 17-Year Climate Gradient Transplant Experiment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bailey, V. L.; Fansler, S.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Liu, C.; Smith, J. L.; Bolton, H. 2012-12-01 In 1994, a reciprocal soil transplant experiment was initiated between two elevations (310 m, warmer and drier, and 844 m, cooler and wetter) on Rattlesnake Mountain in southeastern Washington, USA. The original experiment sought to detect whether the microbial and biochemical dynamics developed under cool, moist conditions would be destabilized under hot, dry conditions. In March 2012 we resampled the original transplanted soils, control cores transplanted in situ, and native soils from each elevation, to study longer-term changes in microbial community composition, soil C and N dynamics, and soil physical structure. These resampled cores were randomly assigned to climate-control chambers simulating the diurnal conditions at either the lower or upper sites. We monitored respiration over 100 days, and couple these data with biogeochemical analyses conducted at time-zero, and at the end of the experiment, to examine the consequences of long-term climate change on microbial C cycling under new environmental stresses. All soil types incubated respired more C while in the simulated hotter, drier climate compared with the cooler, moister condition, except for those that had been transplanted from the lower elevation to the upper elevation in 1994, which actually respired less when returned to this, their original climate. These soils also exhibited almost no temperature sensitivity (Q10=1.07, 13-33 °C). Soils incubated in the cooler, moister chamber had greater N-acetylglucosaminidase and β-glucosidase potentials, suggesting that while loss of C as carbon dioxide respiration is reduced under these conditions, internal cycling of C may be enhanced. Ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis was used to fingerprint the bacterial community of all of these soils to identify possible high-level shifts in community composition in the 0-5, 5-10, and deeper depths in these soils. These results suggest that climate change has significantly altered the C dynamics in these soils, and that even after 17 years of adaptation, the soil microbial communities have not recovered to a condition similar to their new environment. These soils also appear to have lost some of their resilience to subsequent climate perturbations, raising more general questions of how current climate change will affect the capacity of soils to buffer against future, different perturbations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AdSpR..40.1126T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AdSpR..40.1126T">The role of the global electric circuit in solar and internal forcing of clouds and climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tinsley, Brian A.; Burns, G. B.; Zhou, Limin Reports of a variety of short-term meteorological responses to changes in the global electric circuit associated with a set of disparate inputs are analyzed. The meteorological responses consist of changes in cloud cover, atmospheric temperature, pressure, or dynamics. All of these are found to be responding to changes in a key linking agent, that of the downward current density, Jz, that flows from the ionosphere through the troposphere to the surface (ocean and land). As it flows through layer clouds, Jz generates space charge in conductivity gradients at the upper and lower boundaries, and this electrical charge is capable of affecting the microphysical interactions between droplets and both ice-forming nuclei and condensation nuclei. Four short-term inputs to the global circuit are due to solar activity and consist of (1) Forbush decreases of the galactic cosmic ray flux; (2) solar energetic particle events; (3) relativistic electron precipitation changes; and (4) polar cap ionospheric convection potential changes. One input that is internal to the global circuit consists of (5) global ionospheric potential changes due to changes in the current output of the highly electrified clouds (mainly deep convective clouds at low latitudes) that act as generators for the circuit. The observed short-term meteorological responses to these five inputs are of small amplitude but high statistical significance for repeated Jz changes of order 5% for low latitudes increasing to 25-30% at high latitudes. On the timescales of multidecadal solar minima, such as the Maunder minimum, changes in tropospheric dynamics and climate related to Jz are also larger at high latitudes, and correlate with the lower energy component (˜1 GeV) of the cosmic ray flux increasing by as much as a factor of two relative to present values. Also, there are comparable cosmic ray flux changes and climate responses on millennial timescales. The persistence of the longer-term Jz changes for many decades to many centuries would produce an integrated effect on climate that could dominate over short-term weather and climate variations, and explain the observed correlations. Thus, we propose that mechanisms responding to Jz are a candidate for explanations of sun-weather-climate correlations on multidecadal to millenial timescales, as well as on the day-to-day timescales analyzed here. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA601787','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA601787">Mass Balance of Multiyear Sea Ice in the Southern Beaufort Sea</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 2013-09-30 model of MY ice circulation, which is shown in Figure 1. In this model , we consider the Beaufort Sea to consist of four zones defined by mean drift...Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project 3 International Arctic Buoy Program 4 Sea ice Experiment - Dynamic Nature of the Arctic 5Cold...2 Table 2: Datasets compiled to date Geophysical data type Source Time period acquired Buoy tracks IABP 12 hrly position data 1978-2012 Ice </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5884431','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5884431">The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert 2018-01-01 Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.7270R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.7270R">Modes and emergent time scales of embayed beach dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ratliff, Katherine M.; Murray, A. Brad 2014-10-01 In this study, we use a simple numerical model (the Coastline Evolution Model) to explore alongshore transport-driven shoreline dynamics within generalized embayed beaches (neglecting cross-shore effects). Using principal component analysis (PCA), we identify two primary orthogonal modes of shoreline behavior that describe shoreline variation about its unchanging mean position: the rotation mode, which has been previously identified and describes changes in the mean shoreline orientation, and a newly identified breathing mode, which represents changes in shoreline curvature. Wavelet analysis of the PCA mode time series reveals characteristic time scales of these modes (typically years to decades) that emerge within even a statistically constant white-noise wave climate (without changes in external forcing), suggesting that these time scales can arise from internal system dynamics. The time scales of both modes increase linearly with shoreface depth, suggesting that the embayed beach sediment transport dynamics exhibit a diffusive scaling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1238/','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1238/">Dynamically downscaled climate simulations over North America: Methods, evaluation, and supporting documentation for users</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Hostetler, S.W.; Alder, J.R.; Allan, A.M. 2011-01-01 We have completed an array of high-resolution simulations of present and future climate over Western North America (WNA) and Eastern North America (ENA) by dynamically downscaling global climate simulations using a regional climate model, RegCM3. The simulations are intended to provide long time series of internally consistent surface and atmospheric variables for use in climate-related research. In addition to providing high-resolution weather and climate data for the past, present, and future, we have developed an integrated data flow and methodology for processing, summarizing, viewing, and delivering the climate datasets to a wide range of potential users. Our simulations were run over 50- and 15-kilometer model grids in an attempt to capture more of the climatic detail associated with processes such as topographic forcing than can be captured by general circulation models (GCMs). The simulations were run using output from four GCMs. All simulations span the present (for example, 1968-1999), common periods of the future (2040-2069), and two simulations continuously cover 2010-2099. The trace gas concentrations in our simulations were the same as those of the GCMs: the IPCC 20th century time series for 1968-1999 and the A2 time series for simulations of the future. We demonstrate that RegCM3 is capable of producing present day annual and seasonal climatologies of air temperature and precipitation that are in good agreement with observations. Important features of the high-resolution climatology of temperature, precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE), and soil moisture are consistently reproduced in all model runs over WNA and ENA. The simulations provide a potential range of future climate change for selected decades and display common patterns of the direction and magnitude of changes. As expected, there are some model to model differences that limit interpretability and give rise to uncertainties. Here, we provide background information about the GCMs and the RegCM3, a basic evaluation of the model output and examples of simulated future climate. We also provide information needed to access the web applications for visualizing and downloading the data, and give complete metadata that describe the variables in the datasets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC12A..01A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC12A..01A">Meeting the Regional Climate Information Needs of Decision Makers: The CORDEX Framework</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Asrar, G. R.; Jones, C.; Giorgi, F. 2011-12-01 Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD), both dynamical (e.g. regional climate modeling) and statistical, is an important approach to produce fine scale climate information for use in impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation studies and practices. RCD techniques have evolved significantly over the last decade, however a coherent and wide picture of regional climate change based on RCD products is still not available and the potentials, limitations and uncertainties of RCD methods need to be better understood by the user community. In order to address these issues a new initiative has been launched under the WCRP auspices, referred to as Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment, or CORDEX. The aim of CORDEX is to bring together the international RCD community to assess different RCD techniques, recommend best practices and produce a next generation set of RCD-based projections of climate change for regions world-wide. This will involve close interactions between the RCD, global climate modeling, and end users communities. This paper will describe the motivations and design of the first phase of the CORDEX framework, which has a priority focus on Africa, along with the steps that are envisioned to achieve the CORDEX goals within the time framework of the Fifth IPCC assessment report. Some early results for Africa will be presented, together with a short summary of the CORDEX activities in Asia, Americas and other regions of the world. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..797R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..797R">Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Reith, Fabian; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas 2016-11-01 In this study we look beyond the previously studied effects of oceanic CO2 injections on atmospheric and oceanic reservoirs and also account for carbon cycle and climate feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. Considering these additional feedbacks is important since backfluxes from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere in response to reducing atmospheric CO2 can further offset the targeted reduction. To quantify these dynamics we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to simulate direct injection of CO2 into the deep ocean as a means of emissions mitigation during a high CO2 emission scenario. In three sets of experiments with different injection depths, we simulate a 100-year injection period of a total of 70 Gt<mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/>C and follow global carbon cycle dynamics over another 900 years. In additional parameter perturbation runs, we varied the default terrestrial photosynthesis CO2 fertilization parameterization by ±50 % in order to test the sensitivity of this uncertain carbon cycle feedback to the targeted atmospheric carbon reduction through direct CO2 injections. Simulated seawater chemistry changes and marine carbon storage effectiveness are similar to previous studies. As expected, by the end of the injection period avoided emissions fall short of the targeted 70 Gt<mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/>C by 16-30 % as a result of carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes in both land and ocean reservoirs. The target emissions reduction in the parameter perturbation simulations is about 0.2 and 2 % more at the end of the injection period and about 9 % less to 1 % more at the end of the simulations when compared to the unperturbed injection runs. An unexpected feature is the effect of the model's internal variability of deep-water formation in the Southern Ocean, which, in some model runs, causes additional oceanic carbon uptake after injection termination relative to a control run without injection and therefore with slightly different atmospheric CO2 and climate. These results of a model that has very low internal climate variability illustrate that the attribution of carbon fluxes and accounting for injected CO2 may be very challenging in the real climate system with its much larger internal variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8430P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.8430P">Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Coevolutionary Systems in Historical Times</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Perdigão, Rui A. P. 2016-04-01 A new theoretical paradigm for statistical-dynamical modeling of complex coevolutionary systems is introduced, with the aim to provide historical geoscientists with a practical tool to analyse historical data and its underlying phenomenology. Historical data is assumed to represent the history of dynamical processes of physical and socio-economic nature. If processes and their governing laws are well understood, they are often treated with traditional dynamical equations: deterministic approach. If the governing laws are unknown or impracticable, the process is often treated as if being random (even if it is not): statistical approach. Although single eventful details - such as the exact spatiotemporal structure of a particular hydro-meteorological incident - may often be elusive to a detailed analysis, the overall dynamics exhibit group properties summarized by a simple set of categories or dynamical regimes at multiple scales - from local short-lived convection patterns to large-scale hydro-climatic regimes. The overwhelming microscale complexity is thus conveniently wrapped into a manageable group entity, such as a statistical distribution. In a stationary setting whereby the distribution is assumed to be invariant, alternating regimes are approachable as dynamical intermittence. For instance, in the context of bimodal climatic oscillations such as NAO and ENSO, each mode corresponds to a dynamical regime or phase. However, given external forcings or longer-term internal variability and multiscale coevolution, the structural properties of the system may change. These changes in the dynamical structure bring about a new distribution and associated regimes. The modes of yesteryear may no longer exist as such in the new structural order of the system. In this context, aside from regime intermittence, the system exhibits structural regime change. New oscillations may emerge whilst others fade into the annals of history, e.g. particular climate fluctuations during the Little Ice Age. Traditional theories of stochastic processes and dynamical systems are grounded on the existence of so-called dynamical invariants; properties that remain unchanged as the dynamics unfold, assuming structural invariance and ergodicity of the underlying system. However, such theories are no longer optimal when trying to understand and model long-term historical records of coevolutionary systems. A new paradigm is thus needed. Therefore, we introduce a new class of dynamical systems that reinvent themselves as the dynamics unfold. Rather than only changing variables and parameters under a rigid framework, the governing laws are malleable themselves. The novel formulation captures and explains the coevolutionary dynamics of multiscale hydroclimatic systems, bringing along a physically sound understanding of their regimes, transitions and extremes over a long-term history. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016OPhy...14...14V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016OPhy...14...14V">Climate Solutions based on advanced scientific discoveries of Allatra physics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Vershigora, Valery 2016-01-01 Global climate change is one of the most important international problems of the 21st century. The overall rapid increase in the dynamics of cataclysms, which have been observed in recent decades, is particularly alarming. Howdo modern scientists predict the occurrence of certain events? In meteorology, unusually powerful cumulonimbus clouds are one of the main conditions for the emergence of a tornado. The former, in their turn, are formed during the invasion of cold air on the overheated land surface. The satellite captures the cloud front, and, based on these pictures, scientists make assumptions about the possibility of occurrence of the respective natural phenomena. In fact, mankind visually observes and draws conclusions about the consequences of the physical phenomena which have already taken place in the invisible world, so the conclusions of scientists are assumptions by their nature, rather than precise knowledge of the causes of theorigin of these phenomena in the physics of microcosm. The latest research in the field of the particle physics and neutrino astrophysics, which was conducted by a working team of scientists of ALLATRA International Public Movement (hereinafter ALLATRA SCIENCE group) allatra-science.org, last accessed 10 April 2016. offers increased opportunities for advanced fundamental and applied research in climatic engineering. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26930402','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26930402">Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang 2016-01-01 Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21142340','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21142340">Service employees give as they get: internal service as a moderator of the service climate-service outcomes link.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Ehrhart, Karen Holcombe; Witt, L A; Schneider, Benjamin; Perry, Sara Jansen 2011-03-01 We lend theoretical insight to the service climate literature by exploring the joint effects of branch service climate and the internal service provided to the branch (the service received from corporate units to support external service delivery) on customer-rated service quality. We hypothesized that service climate is related to service quality most strongly when the internal service quality received is high, providing front-line employees with the capability to deliver what the service climate motivates them to do. We studied 619 employees and 1,973 customers in 36 retail branches of a bank. We aggregated employee perceptions of the internal service quality received from corporate units and the local service climate and external customer perceptions of service quality to the branch level of analysis. Findings were consistent with the hypothesis that high-quality internal service is necessary for branch service climate to yield superior external customer service quality. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMOS24A..03P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMOS24A..03P">An overview of the South Atlantic Ocean climate variability and air-sea interaction processes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pezzi, L. P.; Parise, C. K.; Souza, R.; Gherardi, D. F.; Camargo, R.; Soares, H. C.; Silveira, I. 2013-05-01 The Ocean Modeling Group at the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) in Brazil has been developing several studies to understand the role of the Atlantic ocean on the South America climate. Studies include simulating the dynamics of the Tropical South-Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean. This is part of an ongoing international cooperation, in which Brazil participates with in situ observations, numerical modeling and statistical analyses. We have focused on the understanding of the impacts of extreme weather events over the Tropical South Atlantic Ocean and their prediction on different time-scales. One such study is aimed at analyzing the climate signal generated by imposing an extreme condition on the Antarctic sea ice and considering different complexities of the sea ice model. The influence of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC) region on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) is also investigated through in situ data analysis of different cruises and numerical experiments with a regional numerical model. There is also an ongoing investigation that revealed basin-scale interannual climate variation with impacts on the Brazilian Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which are strongly correlated with climate indices such as ENSO, AAO and PDO. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018QSRv..190...20K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018QSRv..190...20K">Centennial-scale vegetation dynamics and climate variability in SE Europe during Marine Isotope Stage 11 based on a pollen record from Lake Ohrid</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kousis, Ilias; Koutsodendris, Andreas; Peyron, Odile; Leicher, Niklas; Francke, Alexander; Wagner, Bernd; Giaccio, Biagio; Knipping, Maria; Pross, Jörg 2018-06-01 To better understand climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, we here present a new, centennial-scale-resolution pollen record from Lake Ohrid (Balkan Peninsula) derived from sediment cores retrieved during an International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) campaign. Our palynological data, augmented by quantitative pollen-based climate reconstructions, provide insight into the vegetation dynamics and thus also climate variability in SE Europe during one of the best orbital analogues for the Holocene. Comparison of our palynological results with other proxy data from Lake Ohrid as well as with regional and global climate records shows that the vegetation in SE Europe responded sensitively both to long- and short-term climate change during MIS 11. The chronology of our palynological record is based on orbital tuning, and is further supported by the detection of a new tephra from the Vico volcano, central Italy, dated to 410 ± 2 ka. Our study indicates that MIS 11c (∼424-398 ka) was the warmest interval of MIS 11. The younger part of the interglacial (i.e., MIS 11b-11a; ∼398-367 ka) exhibits a gradual cooling trend passing over into MIS 10. It is characterized by considerable millennial-scale variability as inferred by six abrupt forest-contraction events. Interestingly, the first forest contraction occurred during full interglacial conditions of MIS 11c; this event lasted for ∼1.7 kyrs (406.2-404.5 ka) and was characterized by substantial reductions in winter temperature and annual precipitation. Most notably, it occurred ∼7 ka before the end of MIS 11c and ∼15 ka before the first strong ice-rafted debris event in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that millennial-scale climate variability during MIS 11 was established in Southern Europe already during MIS 11c, which is earlier than in the North Atlantic where it is registered only from MIS 11b onwards. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28393849','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28393849">Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A 2017-04-10 Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4996644','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4996644">The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle 2016-01-01 Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. PMID:27574700 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27574700','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27574700">The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Stevanović, Miodrag; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Müller, Christoph; Bonsch, Markus; Schmitz, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Humpenöder, Florian; Weindl, Isabelle 2016-08-01 Climate change threatens agricultural productivity worldwide, resulting in higher food prices. Associated economic gains and losses differ not only by region but also between producers and consumers and are affected by market dynamics. On the basis of an impact modeling chain, starting with 19 different climate projections that drive plant biophysical process simulations and ending with agro-economic decisions, this analysis focuses on distributional effects of high-end climate change impacts across geographic regions and across economic agents. By estimating the changes in surpluses of consumers and producers, we find that climate change can have detrimental impacts on global agricultural welfare, especially after 2050, because losses in consumer surplus generally outweigh gains in producer surplus. Damage in agriculture may reach the annual loss of 0.3% of future total gross domestic product at the end of the century globally, assuming further opening of trade in agricultural products, which typically leads to interregional production shifts to higher latitudes. Those estimated global losses could increase substantially if international trade is more restricted. If beneficial effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide fertilization can be realized in agricultural production, much of the damage could be avoided. Although trade policy reforms toward further liberalization help alleviate climate change impacts, additional compensation mechanisms for associated environmental and development concerns have to be considered. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24809000','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24809000">Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Dodo, Mahamat K 2014-01-01 Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01; </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B32D..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B32D..01M">Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L. 2013-12-01 Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non-nitrogen-fixing species? Will the response of nitrogen-fixing species to climate change be sensitive to local disturbance histories? </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25825719','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25825719">Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju 2015-04-14 Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4403162','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4403162">Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju 2015-01-01 Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMIN31F..01K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMIN31F..01K">The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kay, J. E.; Deser, C. 2016-12-01 While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC13B0776V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC13B0776V">Effects of the international soybean trade on the dynamics of Gross Primary Productivity in soybean-producing regions in China and Brazil</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Viña, A.; Silva, R. F. B. D.; Yang, H.; Liu, J. 2017-12-01 The international trade of agricultural commodities, such as soybean, is driven by a series of pull and push factors linked to market demand. These in turn fluctuate based on changes in economic affluence, infrastructure development, and socioeconomic homogenization, among others, in both sending and receiving systems. While many studies have analyzed some of these push/pull factors and their environmental effects in either sending or receiving systems, few studies have assessed these effects simultaneously in both sending and receiving systems. This study evaluates the effects of the soybean trade between Brazil and China on the spatio-temporal patterns of gross primary productivity (GPP) in both sending and receiving systems. The GPP is a measure of the amount of biomass produced through photosynthesis across space and through time. This metric is directly related with the amount of carbon that is sequestered from the atmosphere, and thus is related with the impacts of land use/cover dynamics on global climate change. The spatio-temporal patterns of both GPP and land use/cover were evaluated simultaneously in two soybean-producing regions (state of Mato Grosso in Brazil, and Heilongjiang province in China) through the use of surface reflectance data acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite, combined with a production efficiency model (PEM) entirely based on remotely sensed data. Results from this analysis provide new insights on the consequences of the international trade at local/regional scales, and allow assessing how changes in market demand for agricultural commodities may generate drastic environmental effects in both sending and receiving systems, with global implications on carbon sequestration and thus on climate change. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMEP13A0844M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMEP13A0844M">Modes of embayed beach dynamics: analysis reveals emergent timescales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Murray, K. T.; Murray, A.; Limber, P. W.; Ells, K. D. 2013-12-01 Embayed beaches, or beaches positioned between rocky headlands, exhibit morphologic changes over many length and time scales. Beach sediment is transported as a result of the day-to-day wave forcing, causing patterns of erosion and accretion. We use the Rocky Coastline Evolution Model (RCEM) to investigate how patterns of shoreline change depend on wave climate (the distribution of wave-approach angles) and beach characteristics. Measuring changes in beach width through time allows us to track the evolution of the shape of the beach and the movement of sand within it. By using Principle Component Analysis (PCA), these changes can be categorized into modes, where the first few modes explain the majority of the variation in the time series. We analyze these modes and how they vary as a function of wave climate and headland/bay aspect ratio. In the purposefully simple RCEM, sediment transport is wave-driven and affected by wave shadowing behind the headlands. The rock elements in our model experiments (including the headlands) are fixed and unerodable so that this analysis can focus purely on sand dynamics between the headlands, without a sand contribution from the headlands or cliffs behind the beach. The wave climate is characterized by dictating the percentage of offshore waves arriving from the left and the percentage of waves arriving from high angles (very oblique to the coastline orientation). A high-angle dominated wave climate tends to amplify coastline perturbations, whereas a lower-angle wave climate is diffusive. By changing the headland/bay aspect ratio and wave climate, we can perform PCA analysis of generalized embayed beaches with differing anatomy and wave climate forcings. Previous work using PCA analysis of embayed beaches focused on specific locations and shorter timescales (<30 years; Short and Trembanis, 2004). By using the RCEM, we can more broadly characterize beach dynamics over longer timescales. The first two PCA modes, which explain a majority of the beach width time series variation (typically >70%), are a 'breathing' mode and a 'rotational' mode. The newly identified breathing mode captures the sand movement from the middle of the beach towards the edges (thickening the beach along the headlands), and the rotational mode describes the movement of sand towards one headland or another, both in response to stochastic fluctuations about the mean wave climate. The two main modes operate independently and on different timescales. In a weakly low-angle dominated wave climate, the breathing mode tends to be the first mode (capturing the most variance), but with greater low-angle dominance (greater morphological diffusivity), the rotational mode tends to be first. The aspect ratio of the bay also affects the order of the modes, because wave shadowing affects sediment transport behind the headlands. Previous work has attributed beach rotation to changes in various climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (Thomas et al., 2011); however, PCA analysis of the RCEM results suggests that embayed beaches can have characteristic timescales of sand movement that result from internal system dynamics, emerging even within a statistically constant wave climate. These results suggest that morphologic changes in embayed beaches can occur independently of readily identifiable shifts in forcing. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23569264','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23569264">Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard 2013-04-23 Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth's climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate-lake-FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMEP53B0934B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMEP53B0934B">The Geomorphometrics of the Rio Grande Rift: The role of tectonics, climate, and erosional processes in forming the Rio Grande river</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Berry, M. A.; van Wijk, J.; Emry, E.; Axen, G. J.; Coblentz, D. D. 2016-12-01 Geomorphometrics provides a powerful tool for quantifying the topographic fabric of a landscape and can help with correlating surface features with underlying dynamic processes. Here we use a suite of geomorphometric metrics (including the topographic power spectra, fabric orientation/organization) to compare and contrast the geomorphology of two of the world's major rifts, the Rio Grande Rift (RGR) in western US and the East Africa Rift (EAR). The motivation for this study is the observation of fundamental differences between the characteristics of the intra-rift river drainage for the two rifts. The RGR consists of a series of NS trending rift basins, connected by accommodation or transfer zones. The Rio Grande river developed in the late Neogene, and follows these rift segments from the San Luis basin in Colorado to the Gulf of Mexico. Before the river system formed, basins are thought to have formed internally draining systems, characterized by shallow playa lakes. This is in contrast with lakes in the Tanganyika and Malawi rifts of the East African Rift that are deep and have existed for >5 My. We investigate the role of climate, tectonics and erosional processes in the formation of the through-going Rio Grande river. This occurred around the time of a slowing down of rift opening ( 10 Ma), but also climatic changes in the southwestern U.S. have been described for the late Neogene. To model our hypothesis, a tectonics and surface transport code TISC (Transport, Isostasy, Surface Transport, Climate) was used to evaluate the dynamics of a series of proto-rift basins and their connecting accommodation zones. Basin infill and drainage system development are studied as a result of varying sediment budgets, climate variables, and rift opening rate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3000269','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3000269">National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip 2010-01-01 Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..12213061M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..12213061M">Radiative and Chemical Response to Interactive Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols in Fully Coupled CESM1(WACCM)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mills, Michael J.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Tilmes, Simone; Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Glanville, Anne A.; Tribbia, Joseph J.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Vitt, Francis; Schmidt, Anja; Gettelman, Andrew; Hannay, Cecile; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Kinnison, Douglas E. 2017-12-01 We present new insights into the evolution and interactions of stratospheric aerosol using an updated version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Improved horizontal resolution, dynamics, and chemistry now produce an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation and significant improvements to stratospheric temperatures and ozone compared to observations. We present a validation of WACCM column ozone and climate calculations against observations. The prognostic treatment of stratospheric sulfate aerosols accurately represents the evolution of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and perturbations to solar and longwave radiation following the June 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. We confirm the inclusion of interactive OH chemistry as an important factor in the formation and initial distribution of aerosol following large inputs of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the stratosphere. We calculate that depletion of OH levels within the dense SO2 cloud in the first weeks following the Pinatubo eruption significantly prolonged the average initial e-folding decay time for SO2 oxidation to 47 days. Previous observational and model studies showing a 30 day decay time have not accounted for the large (30-55%) losses of SO2 on ash and ice within 7-9 days posteruption and have not correctly accounted for OH depletion. We examine the variability of aerosol evolution in free-running climate simulations due to meteorology, with comparison to simulations nudged with specified dynamics. We assess calculated impacts of volcanic aerosols on ozone loss with comparisons to observations. The completeness of the chemistry, dynamics, and aerosol microphysics in WACCM qualify it for studies of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP11E..04G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP11E..04G">Combining Carbon Accumulation and Hydroclimatic Variations Throughout the Holocene: Can we Detect a Climate Signal from Northeastern Canadian Boreal Peatlands ?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Garneau, M.; van Bellen, S.; Magnan, G.; Lamarre, A.; Thibault, A. 2013-12-01 In northeastern Canada, data on peatland development, carbon accumulation and hydroclimatic variations show changes throughout the Holocene period. Regional comparisons following south-north gradients from both western and eastern parts of the Québec province are used to evaluate the long-term processes influencing the peatlands carbon dynamics in this region of Canada. Seven different ecoclimatic subregions of the boreal biome distributed along two main geographic gradients (continental and maritime) have been characterized in terms of carbon accumulation and hydroclimatic variations. Results show an important maritime influence in terms of temperature (in particular through sea ice cover duration), relative humidity and wind exposure on peatland dynamics. In all regions, except in depressed areas, forests have first colonized the land following ice retreat and withdrawal of the marine waters. Peat accumulation has been initiated by paludification from 5500 cal BP mainly. Results show variations in the timing of trophic status transitions but there is a relative synchronic decrease in peat C accumulation in all regions from the Neoglacial cooling period. Cooler climatic conditions seem responsible for a decrease in biomass productivity and a rise in bog surface wetness due to lower evapotranspiration. Changes in hydroclimatic conditions may also have favored the development or expansion of pools and flarks at the peatland surfaces. These allogenic conditions also mediated by internal (autogenic) processes have been important factors controlling the long-term carbon dynamics of the studied peatlands. Impacts on carbon dioxide uptake and methane emissions through time require further considerations to evaluate the response of these systems to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27788349','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27788349">Seasonally Varying Predation Behavior and Climate Shifts Are Predicted to Affect Predator-Prey Cycles.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Tyson, Rebecca; Lutscher, Frithjof 2016-11-01 The functional response of some predator species changes from a pattern characteristic for a generalist to that for a specialist according to seasonally varying prey availability. Current theory does not address the dynamic consequences of this phenomenon. Since season length correlates strongly with altitude and latitude and is predicted to change under future climate scenarios, including this phenomenon in theoretical models seems essential for correct prediction of future ecosystem dynamics. We develop and analyze a two-season model for the great horned owl (Bubo virginialis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). These species form a predator-prey system in which the generalist to specialist shift in predation pattern has been documented empirically. We study the qualitative behavior of this predator-prey model community as summer season length changes. We find that relatively small changes in summer season length can have a profound impact on the system. In particular, when the predator has sufficient alternative resources available during the summer season, it can drive the prey to extinction, there can be coexisting stable states, and there can be stable large-amplitude limit cycles coexisting with a stable steady state. Our results illustrate that the impacts of global change on local ecosystems can be driven by internal system dynamics and can potentially have catastrophic consequences. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2732840','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2732840">Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Stenseth, Nils C. 2009-01-01 Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future. PMID:19706557 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016930','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120016930">Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Domagal-Goldman, Shawn 2012-01-01 We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49365','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49365">Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski 2015-01-01 Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765634','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765634">Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B 2018-04-01 Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/918355','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/918355">Global climate change and international security.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Karas, Thomas H. 2003-11-01 This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national andmore » international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1225814','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1225814">Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V. The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were appliedmore » to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1425431-attributable-human-induced-changes-likelihood-magnitude-observed-extreme-precipitation-during-hurricane-harvey','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1425431-attributable-human-induced-changes-likelihood-magnitude-observed-extreme-precipitation-during-hurricane-harvey">Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F. 2017-12-28 Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29133790','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29133790">Climate change accelerates growth of urban trees in metropolises worldwide.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Pretzsch, Hans; Biber, Peter; Uhl, Enno; Dahlhausen, Jens; Schütze, Gerhard; Perkins, Diana; Rötzer, Thomas; Caldentey, Juan; Koike, Takayoshi; Con, Tran van; Chavanne, Aurélia; Toit, Ben du; Foster, Keith; Lefer, Barry 2017-11-13 Despite the importance of urban trees, their growth reaction to climate change and to the urban heat island effect has not yet been investigated with an international scope. While we are well informed about forest growth under recent conditions, it is unclear if this knowledge can be simply transferred to urban environments. Based on tree ring analyses in ten metropolises worldwide, we show that, in general, urban trees have undergone accelerated growth since the 1960s. In addition, urban trees tend to grow more quickly than their counterparts in the rural surroundings. However, our analysis shows that climate change seems to enhance the growth of rural trees more than that of urban trees. The benefits of growing in an urban environment seem to outweigh known negative effects, however, accelerated growth may also mean more rapid ageing and shortened lifetime. Thus, city planners should adapt to the changed dynamics in order to secure the ecosystem services provided by urban trees. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1425431','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1425431">Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F. Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%),more » which is larger than the 6–7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Thus, in a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412457R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412457R">Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F. 2017-12-01 Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change <fi>likely</fi> increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6-7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001050','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001050">The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew 2012-01-01 Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31E2244L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A31E2244L">Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C. 2017-12-01 Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26932468','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26932468">Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke 2016-06-01 The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28182303','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28182303">Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B 2017-06-01 Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37670307S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37670307S">Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David 2018-06-01 Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712798','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29712798">Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J Alastair R; Connell, Richenda K; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David 2018-06-13 Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912409F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912409F">Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo 2017-04-01 The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174012','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174012">Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Ray, Andrew M.; Gould, William R.; Hossack, Blake R.; Sepulveda, Adam; Thoma, David P.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K. 2016-01-01 Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54626','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54626">Global climate change impacts on forests and markets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole 2016-01-01 This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1510686L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1510686L">A comparison of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods for regional wave climate projections along French coastlines.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Laugel, Amélie; Menendez, Melisa; Benoit, Michel; Mattarolo, Giovanni; Mendez, Fernando 2013-04-01 Wave climate forecasting is a major issue for numerous marine and coastal related activities, such as offshore industries, flooding risks assessment and wave energy resource evaluation, among others. Generally, there are two main ways to predict the impacts of the climate change on the wave climate at regional scale: the dynamical and the statistical downscaling of GCM (Global Climate Model). In this study, both methods have been applied on the French coast (Atlantic , English Channel and North Sea shoreline) under three climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) simulated with the GCM ARPEGE-CLIMAT, from Météo-France (AR4, IPCC). The aim of the work is to characterise the wave climatology of the 21st century and compare the statistical and dynamical methods pointing out advantages and disadvantages of each approach. The statistical downscaling method proposed by the Environmental Hydraulics Institute of Cantabria (Spain) has been applied (Menendez et al., 2011). At a particular location, the sea-state climate (Predictand Y) is defined as a function, Y=f(X), of several atmospheric circulation patterns (Predictor X). Assuming these climate associations between predictor and predictand are stationary, the statistical approach has been used to project the future wave conditions with reference to the GCM. The statistical relations between predictor and predictand have been established over 31 years, from 1979 to 2009. The predictor is built as the 3-days-averaged squared sea level pressure gradient from the hourly CFSR database (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/). The predictand has been extracted from the 31-years hindcast sea-state database ANEMOC-2 performed with the 3G spectral wave model TOMAWAC (Benoit et al., 1996), developed at EDF R&D LNHE and Saint-Venant Laboratory for Hydraulics and forced by the CFSR 10m wind field. Significant wave height, peak period and mean wave direction have been extracted with an hourly-resolution at 110 coastal locations along the French coast. The model, based on the BAJ parameterization of the source terms (Bidlot et al, 2007) was calibrated against ten years of GlobWave altimeter observations (2000-2009) and validated through deep and shallow water buoy observations. The dynamical downscaling method has been performed with the same numerical wave model TOMAWAC used for building ANEMOC-2. Forecast simulations are forced by the 10m wind fields of ARPEGE-CLIMAT (A1B, A2, B1) from 2010 to 2100. The model covers the Atlantic Ocean and uses a spatial resolution along the French and European coast of 10 and 20 km respectively. The results of the model are stored with a time resolution of one hour. References: Benoit M., Marcos F., and F. Becq, (1996). Development of a third generation shallow-water wave model with unstructured spatial meshing. Proc. 25th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., (ICCE'1996), Orlando (Florida, USA), pp 465-478. Bidlot J-R, Janssen P. and Adballa S., (2007). A revised formulation of ocean wave dissipation and its model impact, technical memorandum ECMWF n°509. Menendez, M., Mendez, F.J., Izaguirre,C., Camus, P., Espejo, A., Canovas, V., Minguez, R., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2011). Statistical Downscaling of Multivariate Wave Climate Using a Weather Type Approach, 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and 3rd Coastal Hazard Symposium, Kona (Hawaii). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS23D..01H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS23D..01H">Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F. 2016-12-01 Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........49G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........49G">Efficient Nonlinear Low-Order Models for Atmospheric and Climate Dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Grady, Kevin A. The governing equations of atmospheric and climate dynamics present enormous mathematical challenges when studied analytically. Following the pioneering work of Kolmogorov, Lorenz, and Obukhov, a popular approach to handle these difficult partial differential equations (PDEs) is to approximate them with finite systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), called low-order models (LOMs). One such LOM is the celebrated Lorenz (1963) model of just three ODEs, but attempts to extend it to larger, more realistic models of atmospheric dynamics have sometimes led to LOMs exhibiting unphysical behavior, such as a lack of energy conservation in the dissipationless limit. These behaviors can be avoided by constructing LOMs using 3-mode nonlinear dynamical systems known in mechanics as Volterra gyrostats, the simplest one being equivalent to the Lorenz model. Gyrostatic LOMs guarantee energy conservation, suggesting they may offer a general framework for deriving efficient LOMs for atmospheric and climate dynamics. This study explores the use of gyrostatic LOMs in three important related problems of atmospheric dynamics. The first is 2D Rayleigh-Benard convection (RBC), where an algorithm for studying gyrostatic LOMs was developed. Before now this had to be done manually, limiting the LOMs that could be studied as well as their size. This algorithm permits the study of LOMs larger than previously possible as well as their conservation properties. It was used here to demonstrate that all physically sound LOMs for this problem from recent publications have a gyrostatic form. The second problem is the interplay of buoyancy and shear in the formation of rolls versus cells in mesoscale shallow convection (MSC). A gyrostatic LOM for 3D RBC with the ability to parameterize buoyancy and shear was developed using an adopted version of the algorithm for 2D RBC. This model was run for hundreds of different combinations of buoyancy and shear, with the results generally matching those of other observational and modeling studies. The third problem is convection driven by internal heating, where the algorithm developed for 2D RBC was applied to derive several gyrostatic LOMs. In general these LOMs were shown to match reasonably well with the actual physics of this problem. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC43C0763G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC43C0763G">Development of Joint Climate and Discharge Projections for the International Rhine River Basin - the CHR RheinBlick2050 Project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Görgen, K.; Pfister, L. 2008-12-01 The anticipated climate change will lead to modified hydro-meteorological regimes that influence discharge behaviour and hydraulics of rivers. This has variable impacts on managed (anthropogenic) and unmanaged (natural) systems, depending on their sensitivity and vulnerability (ecology, economy, infrastructure, transport, energy production, water management, etc.). Decision makers in these contexts need adequate adaptation strategies to minimize adverse effects of climate change, i.e. an improved knowledge on the potential impacts including uncertainties means an extension of the informed options open to users. The goal of the highly applied study presented here is the development of joint, consistent climate and discharge projections for the international Rhine River catchments (Switzerland, France, Germany, Netherlands) in order to assess future changes of hydro-meteorological regimes in the meso- and macroscale Rhine River catchments and to derive and improve the understanding of such impacts on hydrologic and hydraulic processes. The RheinBlick2050 project is an international effort initiated by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in close cooperation with the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine. The core experiment design foresees a data-synthesis, multi-model approach where (transient) (bias- corrected) regional climate change projections are used as forcing data for existing calibrated hydrological (and hydraulic) models at a daily temporal resolution over mesoscale catchments of the Rhine River. Mainly for validation purposes, hydro-meteorological observations from national weather services are compiled into a new consistent 5 km x 5 km reference dataset from 1961 to 2005. RCM data are mainly used from the ENSEMBLES project and other existing dynamical downscaling model runs to derive probabilistic ensembles and thereby also access uncertainties on a regional scale. A benchmarking is helping to identify those atmospheric forcing data that ideally suit the needs for the subsequent hydrological model runs with the LARSIM and HBV models and evaluate those simulations too. As a result, usable information and quantifiable statements (e.g. extreme value statistics, uncertainty assessment, validation), that might form the basis for further planning or policy relevant decisions, are to be derived. Our analyses are highly influenced by the requirements of the potential users and stakeholders from government agencies who shall make use of the data and results. Here we present first results of the application of the complete data processing and modelling chain towards discharge projections on a subset of input data, albeit still without any bias correction applied to the meteorological forcing data. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3651F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3651F">ENSO-related Interannual Variability of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation: Assessment and Projected Changes in CMIP5 Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Frederiksen, Carsten; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu; Sisson, Janice 2013-04-01 ENSO variability is an important driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation. Understanding the observed and projected changes in ENSO variability is therefore important to understanding changes in Australian surface climate. Using a recently developed methodology (Zheng et al., 2009), the coherent patterns, or modes, of ENSO-related variability in the SH atmospheric circulation can be separated from modes that are related to intraseasonal variability or to changes in radiative forcings. Under this methodology, the seasonal mean SH 500 hPa geopotential height is considered to consist of three components. These are: (1) an intraseasonal component related to internal dynamics on intraseasonal time scales; (2) a slow-internal component related to internal dynamics on slowly varying (interannual or longer) time scales, including ENSO; and (3) a slow-external component related to external (i.e. radiative) forcings. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to represent the modes of variability of the interannual covariance of the three components. An assessment is first made of the modes in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset for the SH summer and winter seasons in the 20th century. In reanalysis data, two EOFs of the slow component (which includes the slow-internal and slow-external components) have been found to be related to ENSO variability (Frederiksen and Zheng, 2007). In SH summer, the CMIP5 models reproduce the leading ENSO mode very well when the structures of the EOF and the associated SST, and associated variance are considered. There is substantial improvement in this mode when compared with the CMIP3 models shown in Grainger et al. (2012). However, the second ENSO mode in SH summer has a poorly reproduced EOF structure in the CMIP5 models, and the associated variance is generally underestimated. In SH winter, the performance of the CMIP5 models in reproducing the structure and variance is similar for both ENSO modes, with the associated variance being generally underestimated. Projected changes in the modes in the 21st century are then investigated using ensembles of CMIP5 models that reproduce well the 20th century slow modes. The slow-internal and slow-external components are examined separately, allowing the projected changes in the response to ENSO variability to be separated from the response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. By using several ensembles, the model-dependency of the projected changes in the ENSO-related slow-internal modes is examined. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2012: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and Projections. Climate Dyn., in press. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70170271','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70170271">Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C. 2014-01-01 Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22439154','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22439154">The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Karlsson, Christer; Hjerpe, Mattias; Parker, Charles; Linner, Bjorn-Ola 2012-01-01 Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NPGeo..24..393R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NPGeo..24..393R">Detecting changes in forced climate attractors with Wasserstein distance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Robin, Yoann; Yiou, Pascal; Naveau, Philippe 2017-07-01 The climate system can been described by a dynamical system and its associated attractor. The dynamics of this attractor depends on the external forcings that influence the climate. Such forcings can affect the mean values or variances, but regions of the attractor that are seldom visited can also be affected. It is an important challenge to measure how the climate attractor responds to different forcings. Currently, the Euclidean distance or similar measures like the Mahalanobis distance have been favored to measure discrepancies between two climatic situations. Those distances do not have a natural building mechanism to take into account the attractor dynamics. In this paper, we argue that a Wasserstein distance, stemming from optimal transport theory, offers an efficient and practical way to discriminate between dynamical systems. After treating a toy example, we explore how the Wasserstein distance can be applied and interpreted to detect non-autonomous dynamics from a Lorenz system driven by seasonal cycles and a warming trend. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5682393','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5682393">Effects of Mountain Uplift and Climatic Oscillations on Phylogeography and Species Divergence in Four Endangered Notopterygium Herbs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Shahzad, Khurram; Jia, Yun; Chen, Fu-Lin; Zeb, Umar; Li, Zhong-Hu 2017-01-01 Mountain uplift and climatic fluctuations are important driving forces that have affected the geographic distribution and population dynamics history of organisms. However, it is unclear how geological and climatic events might have affected the phylogeographic history and species divergence in high-alpine herbal plants. In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history and species differentiation of four endangered Notopterygium herbs on the high-altitude Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and adjacent areas. We combined phylogeographic analysis with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in four Notopterygium species (N. incisum, N. franchetii, N. oviforme, and N. forrestii). In total, 559 individuals from 74 populations of the four species were analyzed based on three maternally inherited chloroplast fragments (matK, rbcL, and trnS-trnG) and one nuclear DNA region (internal transcribed spacer, ITS). Fifty-five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and 48 ITS haplotypes were identified in the four species. All of the cpDNA and ITS haplotypes were species-specific, except N. franchetii and N. oviforme shared one cpDNA haplotype, H32. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all four species formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, where N. franchetii and N. oviforme were sisters. In addition, each Notopterygium species generated an individual clade that corresponded to their respective species in the ITS tree. Population dynamics analyses and species distribution modeling showed that the two widely distributed herbs N. incisum and N. franchetii exhibited obvious demographic expansions during the Pleistocene ice ages. Molecular dating suggested that the divergence of the four Notopterygium species occurred approximately between 3.6 and 1.2 Mya, and it was significantly associated with recent extensive uplifts of the QTP. Our results support the hypothesis that mountain uplift and Quaternary climatic oscillations profoundly shaped the population genetic divergence and demographic dynamics of Notopterygium species. The findings of this and previous studies provide important insights into the effects of QTP uplifts and climatic changes on phylogeography and species differentiation in high altitude mountainous areas. Our results may also facilitate the conservation of endangered herbaceous medicinal plants in the genus Notopterygium. PMID:29167679 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29167679','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29167679">Effects of Mountain Uplift and Climatic Oscillations on Phylogeography and Species Divergence in Four Endangered Notopterygium Herbs.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Shahzad, Khurram; Jia, Yun; Chen, Fu-Lin; Zeb, Umar; Li, Zhong-Hu 2017-01-01 Mountain uplift and climatic fluctuations are important driving forces that have affected the geographic distribution and population dynamics history of organisms. However, it is unclear how geological and climatic events might have affected the phylogeographic history and species divergence in high-alpine herbal plants. In this study, we analyzed the population demographic history and species differentiation of four endangered Notopterygium herbs on the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and adjacent areas. We combined phylogeographic analysis with species distribution modeling to detect the genetic variations in four Notopterygium species ( N. incisum , N. franchetii , N. oviforme , and N. forrestii ). In total, 559 individuals from 74 populations of the four species were analyzed based on three maternally inherited chloroplast fragments ( matK , rbcL , and trn S -trn G) and one nuclear DNA region (internal transcribed spacer, ITS). Fifty-five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) and 48 ITS haplotypes were identified in the four species. All of the cpDNA and ITS haplotypes were species-specific, except N. franchetii and N. oviforme shared one cpDNA haplotype, H32. Phylogenetic analysis suggested that all four species formed a monophyletic clade with high bootstrap support, where N. franchetii and N. oviforme were sisters. In addition, each Notopterygium species generated an individual clade that corresponded to their respective species in the ITS tree. Population dynamics analyses and species distribution modeling showed that the two widely distributed herbs N. incisum and N. franchetii exhibited obvious demographic expansions during the Pleistocene ice ages. Molecular dating suggested that the divergence of the four Notopterygium species occurred approximately between 3.6 and 1.2 Mya, and it was significantly associated with recent extensive uplifts of the QTP. Our results support the hypothesis that mountain uplift and Quaternary climatic oscillations profoundly shaped the population genetic divergence and demographic dynamics of Notopterygium species. The findings of this and previous studies provide important insights into the effects of QTP uplifts and climatic changes on phylogeography and species differentiation in high altitude mountainous areas. Our results may also facilitate the conservation of endangered herbaceous medicinal plants in the genus Notopterygium. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H52C..07P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H52C..07P">Hydro-climatic Changes: Potential Non-linear Responses of Phosphorus Dynamic in Aquatic/Semi-aquatic Systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pant, H. K. 2007-12-01 Depending on resilience, threshold and lag times, hydro-climatic changes can cause nonlinear and/or irreversible changes in phosphorus (P) dynamic, and instigate P enrichment in aquatic/semi-aquatic systems. Thus, studying direct/indirect effects of expected global climate change on bioavailability of organic P in aquatic systems are in critical need, to help manage or increase the resilience of the ecosystem. The central hypothesis of this study is that P dynamic in aquatic, especially freshwater, ecosystem is likely to behave nonlinearly due to expected changes in sediment and water acidity, redox status, etc., because of potential hydro-climatic changes in the decades to come, thus, could face irreversible adverse changes. Devising possible biological and chemical treatments for the removal of P from eutrophic lakes, estuaries, etc, as well as helping in predicting the movement and fate of P under changing hydro-climatic conditions would be crucial to manage aquatic ecosystem in the near future. The critical question is not how much P is stored in any given aquatic/semi-aquatic system, but how the resilience and nonlinearity relate to the stability of stored P are affected due to the levels of environmental stressors, which are expected to fluctuate due to global change in the decades to come. Studies related to 31P Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy analysis, and multiple hydraulic retention cycles showed that, in general, frequent drying and reflooding of a semi-aquatic system such as wetland could significantly increase the bioavailability of P due to degradation of relatively less stable organic P, e.g., glycerophosphate and nucleoside monophosphate. Moreover, nutrients flux from sediments to the water column depended on the concentration gradients of the sediment-water interface and redox status. Shift in equilibrium P concentration of the water column as the water level rises, may cause release of adsorbed P from the sediments. Restoration of a eutrophic system may involve stepwise efforts including control of catchment nutrient inputs, internal nutrient loading, and biomanipulation, however, flooding, previously non-flooded areas, could export massive amount of P to nearby aquatic bodies, in turn, may cause collapse of the ecosystem. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70038186','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70038186">The response of Lake Tahoe to climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Sahoo, G.B.; Schladow, S.G.; Reuter, J.E.; Coats, R.; Dettinger, M.; Riverson, J.; Wolfe, B.; Costa-Cabral, M. 2013-01-01 Meteorology is the driving force for lake internal heating, cooling, mixing, and circulation. Thus continued global warming will affect the lake thermal properties, water level, internal nutrient loading, nutrient cycling, food-web characteristics, fish-habitat, aquatic ecosystem, and other important features of lake limnology. Using a 1-D numerical model - the Lake Clarity Model (LCM) - together with the down-scaled climatic data of the two emissions scenarios (B1 and A2) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Global Circulation Model, we found that Lake Tahoe will likely cease to mix to the bottom after about 2060 for A2 scenario, with an annual mixing depth of less than 200 m as the most common value. Deep mixing, which currently occurs on average every 3-4 years, will (under the GFDL B1 scenario) occur only four times during 2061 to 2098. When the lake fails to completely mix, the bottom waters are not replenished with dissolved oxygen and eventually dissolved oxygen at these depths will be depleted to zero. When this occurs, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and ammonium-nitrogen (both biostimulatory) are released from the deep sediments and contribute approximately 51 % and 14 % of the total SRP and dissolved inorganic nitrogen load, respectively. The lake model suggests that climate change will drive the lake surface level down below the natural rim after 2085 for the GFDL A2 but not the GFDL B1 scenario. The results indicate that continued climate changes could pose serious threats to the characteristics of the Lake that are most highly valued. Future water quality planning must take these results into account. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7093T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7093T">Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata 2016-04-01 Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMIN33E..02A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMIN33E..02A">Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ammann, C. M. 2009-12-01 Regional planning in preparation for future climate changes is rapidly gaining importance. However, compared to the global mean projections, correctly anticipating regional climate is often much more difficult, particularly with regard to hydrologic changes. The reason for the high, inherent uncertainty in location specific forecasts arises on one hand from the superposition of large internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean system on the more gradual changes. On the other hand, this problem is confounded by the fact that regional climate records are often short and therefore offer little guidance as to how an underlying trend can be identified within the noise. The use of indirect climate information (proxy records) from a host of natural archives has made significant progress recently. Based on an extended record, process studies can help reveal the regional response to changes in large scale climate that likely have to be expected. But in order to come up with robust, season and parameter specific (temperature versus moisture) climate reconstructions, comprehensive data compilations are needed that integrate proxy records of different characteristics, temporal representations, and different systematic and sampling uncertainties. Based on understanding of physical processes, and making explicit use of that knowledge, new dynamical and statistical techniques in paleoclimatology are being developed and explored. In addition to improved estimates of the past climate, the cascade of uncertainties is directly taken into account so that errors can more comprehensively be assessed. A brief overview of the problems and its potential implications for regional planning is followed by an application that demonstrates how collaboration between paleoclimatologists, climate modelers and statisticians can advance our understanding of the climate system and how agencies, businesses and individuals might be able to make better informed decisions in preparation for future climate. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.7922D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.7922D">Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming 2017-08-01 The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4745A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4745A">Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. 2018-06-01 High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..768A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..768A">Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. 2017-09-01 High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3082/pdf/fs2012-3082.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3082/pdf/fs2012-3082.pdf">U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Shipp, Allison A. 2012-01-01 On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) for the purpose of integrating DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support strategic adaptation and mitigation efforts on public and private lands across the United States and internationally. The South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) is supported by a consortium of partners that include The University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, the SC CSC will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interests and expertise in climate science. The primary partners of the SC CSC are the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the Desert, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers, Great Plains, Gulf Coast Prairie, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, and Southern Rockies. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities that address priority partner needs, eliminate redundancies in science, share scientific information and findings, and expand understanding of climate change impacts in the south-central United States and Mexico. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1349068-integrated-earth-system-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1349068-integrated-earth-system-model">integrated Earth System Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Jones, Andew; Di Vittorio, Alan; Collins, William The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human-Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human-Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24128847','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24128847">An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi 2013-09-01 Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.1001N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.1001N">Looking inside out: tracing internal moisture and salinity changes in dunes on the west coast of Ireland</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nash, Ciaran; Bourke, Mary 2017-04-01 Coastal sand dune systems are some of the most physically dynamic landscapes; their susceptibility to geomorphic change is rooted in a host of interconnected processes and feedbacks. Soil moisture and salinity are two fundamental environmental variables capable of exerting a geomorphic influence but have not been thoroughly investigated in coastal dunes. In northwest Europe, coastal dunes are predominantly sediment-limited systems with reduced capacities to avoid severe morphological changes arising from storms. Climatic changes over the next century are predicted to manifest in more frequent and intense storms with the potential to enact severe geomorphic change in coastal settings. A lack of data pertaining to internal dune hydrosaline dynamics suggests we are missing part of the bigger picture. We conducted a pilot study of moisture and salinity dynamics within the upper 50 cm of the vadose zone in a vegetated dune system at Golden Strand, Achill Island on the west coast of Ireland. Golden Strand is a roughly 800 m long embayed sandy beach, backed by vegetated dunes that protect a low-lying machair grassland. A study transect was established across this dune-machair system, perpendicular to the shore. Innovative instrumentation in the form of capacitance probes and internal dune thermochrons were deployed to sample at 10 cm depth intervals at a sampling rate of 10 minutes and coupled with on-site rainfall data. Results indicate that dune moisture tracks rainfall inputs up to 30 cm depth. Antecedent moisture at depth was found to influence infiltration of water through the dune profile. Salinity within the study transect decreased with distance from the beach, suggesting that salt spray is the primary salt delivery mechanism in the dune system. We also noted that moisture and salinity below 30 cm depth failed to respond to rainfall events of varying intensities. Relatively constant moisture and salinity were observed at all depths within the machair. Predictions of climatic change for Ireland suggest more intense short-period precipitation events, this may increase infiltration depth. Baseline data collected will prove informative in predicting the response of Irish coastal dunes via changes in vegetation and dune stability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990004376','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990004376">Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lau, K.- M.; Kim, K.-M.; Yang, S. 1998-01-01 In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea regions, while the linkage to equatorial basin-scale SSTA is weak at best. A large scale SSTA dipole with warming (cooling) in the subtropical central (eastern) Pacific foreshadows a strong SEAM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950007321&hterms=aviation+issues&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Daviation%2Bissues','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950007321&hterms=aviation+issues&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Daviation%2Bissues">NASA atmospheric effects of aviation projects: Status and plans</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wesoky, Howard L.; Thompson, Anne M.; Stolarski, Richard S. 1994-01-01 NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project is developing a scientific basis for assessment of the atmospheric impact of subsonic and supersonic aviation. Issues addressed include predicted ozone changes and climatic impact, and related uncertainties. A primary goal is to assist assessments of United Nations scientific organizations and, hence, consideration of emission standards by the International Civil Aviation Organization. Project focus is on simulation of atmospheric processes by computer models, but studies of aircraft operations, laboratory studies, and remote and in situ observations of chemical, dynamic, and radiative processes are also included. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26910953','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26910953">Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B 2015-12-01 Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPP22A..05C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPP22A..05C">South American Climate Variability: Remote and Regional Forcing Processes of the Holocene and the LGM</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cook, K. H. 2006-12-01 An overview of concepts used in studying climate variability is provided as an introduction. Internally generated variability is the result of interactions within a system, while externally forced variability arises when some factor outside of the system causes a change. Distinguishing between the two requires a definition of the boundaries of "the system" considered. Climate variability is also classified according to space and time scales, for example, regional to global space scales and/or intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, decadal, and millennial time scales. Any of these variability signatures may be internally generated or externally forced. A discussion of some of the climate forcing factors and physical processes thought to be relevant in determining climate variations of the past 20,000 years over South America is presented. An exhaustive treatment is not practical, and there are still many unknowns. Prominent in the literature are studies that discuss the influence of the ITCZ on South American precipitation. Other investigations focus on the South American monsoon dynamics. The physical processes that support these two precipitation systems are quite different, so the modes of variability that they exhibit also differ and it is important to clearly distinguish between them. The ITCZ is zonally elongated, formed by meridional convergence in the tropics. It is largely a structure of the atmosphere over the ocean, and persists throughout the year. Its position and strength vary with SST gradients and the vertical stability of the atmosphere. In contrast, a monsoon system is seasonal, and arises because of the different heat capacities of the land and ocean. It is influenced by land surface features such as vegetation and topography, and SSTs in the vicinity of the continent. Monsoon systems may also vary due to remote and/or large-scale forcing factors such as global sea surface temperature distributions and Hadley and Walker circulations. An example for the LGM climate of South America is presented to distinguish between the variations of ITCZ and monsoon dynamics. Another example presented concerns remote forcing of South American climate from an "intercontinental teleconnection" from Africa. GCM simulations show that summertime precipitation rates in Brazil's Nordeste region would be significantly greater in the absence of the African continent, and precipitation rates over the Amazon basin would be smaller. The generation of a Walker circulation by heating over southern Africa is the cause, and the effect is amplified by land surface feedbacks over South America. The teleconnection is sensitive to the distance between the two continents, to the strength and position of the heating over Africa, and the land surface characteristics over both South America and Africa. The east/west circulation influences the north/south position of the Atlantic ITCZ when asymmetry in surface conditions over Africa displaces the meridional convergence. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9160G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.9160G">Efficient Computation of Atmospheric Flows with Tempest: Validation of Next-Generation Climate and Weather Prediction Algorithms at Non-Hydrostatic Scales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Guerra, Jorge; Ullrich, Paul 2016-04-01 Tempest is a next-generation global climate and weather simulation platform designed to allow experimentation with numerical methods for a wide range of spatial resolutions. The atmospheric fluid equations are discretized by continuous / discontinuous finite elements in the horizontal and by a staggered nodal finite element method (SNFEM) in the vertical, coupled with implicit/explicit time integration. At horizontal resolutions below 10km, many important questions remain on optimal techniques for solving the fluid equations. We present results from a suite of idealized test cases to validate the performance of the SNFEM applied in the vertical with an emphasis on flow features and dynamic behavior. Internal gravity wave, mountain wave, convective bubble, and Cartesian baroclinic instability tests will be shown at various vertical orders of accuracy and compared with known results. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192613','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192613">Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N. 2015-01-01 An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1171388','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1171388">Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Di Lorenzo, Emanuele This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100002101&hterms=climate+facts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bfacts','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100002101&hterms=climate+facts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bfacts">Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H. 2009-01-01 While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAESc.143...39J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAESc.143...39J">The Preboreal-like Asian monsoon climate in the early last interglacial period recorded from the Dark Cave, Southwest China</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jiang, Xiuyang; He, Yaoqi; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sun, Xiaoshuang; Hong, Hui; Liu, Juan; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Li, Zhizhong; Shen, Chuan-Chou 2017-08-01 Transitions of glacial-interglacial cycles are critical periods for Quaternary climate shifts. Here, we present new, decadal resolution Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record from three stalagmites obtained from the Dark Cave in southwestern China over 130-114 thousand years ago (ka, before CE 1950). Chronology was anchored by 28 230Th dates with typical uncertainties of ±0.3-1.0 kyr, allowing an assessment of timing and transition of climate changes during the onset and end of the last interglacial. An agreement between this new and previous stalagmite δ18O records supports that summer insolation predominates orbital-scale ASM evolution. A 2-3 kyr-long gradually increasing ASM period, analogous to the classical Preboreal episode in the early Holocene, follows the termination of a weak monsoon interval at 129.0 ± 0.8 ka. This finding suggests a strong influence of high-latitude ice-sheet dynamics on Asian monsoonal conditions during the early interglacial period. An abrupt end of the marine isotope stage 5e at 118.8 ± 0.6 ka was probably caused by the internal climate system threshold effects. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1209859-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1209859-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Collins, William D.; Craig, Anthony P.; Truesdale, John E. The integrated Earth System Model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for pro- jecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and an Earth System Model (ESM) into a common modeling in- frastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species, land use and land cover change, and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a sin- gle simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore- omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific under- standing of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper de- scribes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1213810-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1213810-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E. The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70026720','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70026720">Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Gerhard, L.C. 2004-01-01 Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28796909','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28796909">Temperature drives abundance fluctuations, but spatial dynamics is constrained by landscape configuration: Implications for climate-driven range shift in a butterfly.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fourcade, Yoan; Ranius, Thomas; Öckinger, Erik 2017-10-01 Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins. Here, using a butterfly (Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future. Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics. The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution. We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.H42A..04M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUSM.H42A..04M">Role of model structure on the response of soil biogeochemistry to hydro-climatic fluctuations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Manzoni, S.; Porporato, A. 2005-05-01 Soil carbon and nutrient cycles are strongly affected by hydro-climatic variability, which interacts with the internal ecosystem structure. Here we test the implications of biogeochemical model structure on such dynamics by extending an existing model by the authors and coworkers. When forced by hydro-climatic fluctuations, the different model structures induce specific preferential nutrient paths among the soil pools, which in turn affect nutrient distribution and availability to microbes and plants. In particular, if it is assumed that microbes can directly assimilate organic nitrogen, plants tend to be inferior competitors for nutrients even in well-watered conditions, while if a certain amount of organic nitrogen is assumed to be mineralized without being first incorporated into microbial cells, vegetation can be advantaged over a wide range of soil moisture values. We also investigate the intensification of competition for nutrients (e.g., nitrogen) between plant and soil microbial communities under extreme hydrologic conditions, such as droughts and intense storms. Frequent rainfall events may determine ideal soil moisture conditions for plant uptake, enhancing nitrogen leaching while lowering oxygen concentration and inhibiting microbial activity. During droughts, the soil water potential often drops to the point of hampering the plant nutrient uptake while still remaining high enough for microbial decomposition and nitrogen immobilization. The interplay of microbe and vegetation water stress is investigated in depth as it controls the ability of one community (e.g., plants or soil microbes) to establish competitive advantage on the other. The long-term effects of these dynamics of competition and nutrient allocation are explored under steady-state and stochastic soil moisture conditions to analyze the feedbacks between soil organic matter and vegetation dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B32D..04E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B32D..04E">Process-based modeling of species' responses to climate change - a proof of concept using western North American trees</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Evans, M. E.; Merow, C.; Record, S.; Menlove, J.; Gray, A.; Cundiff, J.; McMahon, S.; Enquist, B. J. 2013-12-01 Current attempts to forecast how species' distributions will change in response to climate change suffer under a fundamental trade-off: between modeling many species superficially vs. few species in detail (between correlative vs. mechanistic models). The goals of this talk are two-fold: first, we present a Bayesian multilevel modeling framework, dynamic range modeling (DRM), for building process-based forecasts of many species' distributions at a time, designed to address the trade-off between detail and number of distribution forecasts. In contrast to 'species distribution modeling' or 'niche modeling', which uses only species' occurrence data and environmental data, DRMs draw upon demographic data, abundance data, trait data, occurrence data, and GIS layers of climate in a single framework to account for two processes known to influence range dynamics - demography and dispersal. The vision is to use extensive databases on plant demography, distributions, and traits - in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network, the Forest Inventory and Analysis database (FIA), and the International Tree Ring Data Bank - to develop DRMs for North American trees. Second, we present preliminary results from building the core submodel of a DRM - an integral projection model (IPM) - for a sample of dominant tree species in western North America. IPMs are used to infer demographic niches - i.e., the set of environmental conditions under which population growth rate is positive - and project population dynamics through time. Based on >550,000 data points derived from FIA for nine tree species in western North America, we show IPM-based models of their current and future distributions, and discuss how IPMs can be used to forecast future forest productivity, mortality patterns, and inform efforts at assisted migration. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018TCry...12.1137K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018TCry...12.1137K">Canadian snow and sea ice: assessment of snow, sea ice, and related climate processes in Canada's Earth system model and climate-prediction system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kushner, Paul J.; Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Merryfield, William; Ambadan, Jaison T.; Berg, Aaron; Bichet, Adéline; Brown, Ross; Derksen, Chris; Déry, Stephen J.; Dirkson, Arlan; Flato, Greg; Fletcher, Christopher G.; Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan; Haas, Christian; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Frédéric; McCusker, Kelly; Sigmond, Michael; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Tandon, Neil F.; Thackeray, Chad; Tremblay, Bruno; Zwiers, Francis W. 2018-04-01 The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state-of-the-art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. This study presents an assessment from the CanSISE Network of the ability of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) to simulate and predict snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector. To account for observational uncertainty, model structural uncertainty, and internal climate variability, the analysis uses multi-source observations, multiple Earth system models (ESMs) in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and large initial-condition ensembles of CanESM2 and other models. It is found that the ability of the CanESM2 simulation to capture snow-related climate parameters, such as cold-region surface temperature and precipitation, lies within the range of currently available international models. Accounting for the considerable disagreement among satellite-era observational datasets on the distribution of snow water equivalent, CanESM2 has too much springtime snow mass over Canada, reflecting a broader northern hemispheric positive bias. Biases in seasonal snow cover extent are generally less pronounced. CanESM2 also exhibits retreat of springtime snow generally greater than observational estimates, after accounting for observational uncertainty and internal variability. Sea ice is biased low in the Canadian Arctic, which makes it difficult to assess the realism of long-term sea ice trends there. The strengths and weaknesses of the modelling system need to be understood as a practical tradeoff: the Canadian models are relatively inexpensive computationally because of their moderate resolution, thus enabling their use in operational seasonal prediction and for generating large ensembles of multidecadal simulations. Improvements in climate-prediction systems like CanSIPS rely not just on simulation quality but also on using novel observational constraints and the ready transfer of research to an operational setting. Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=245522','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=245522">The influence of historical climate on the population dynamics of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a> Climate change could alter the population growth of dominant species, leading to profound effects on community structure and ecosystem dynamics. Understanding the links between historical variation in climate and population vital rates (survival, growth, recruitment) is one way to predict the impact... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037880','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037880">GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki 2012-01-01 We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED13A0881R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED13A0881R">Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rasheva, E. A. 2015-12-01 For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008825','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120008825">High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Putnam, WilliamM. 2011-01-01 In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP21A1372D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP21A1372D">A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F. 2004-12-01 Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/12152','DOTNTL'); return false;" href="https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/12152">International practices on climate adaptation in transportation : findings from a virtual review</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntlsearch.bts.gov/tris/index.do">DOT National Transportation Integrated Search</a> 2015-01-01 The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) conducted an international review to study how international transportation agencies are addressing issues related to adapting highway infrastructure to the impacts of climate change. The review involved tran... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.B23B0362M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.B23B0362M">Impact of Multiple Environmental Stresses on Wetland Vegetation Dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Muneepeerakul, C. P.; Tamea, S.; Muneepeerakul, R.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F. R.; Rinaldo, A.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. 2009-12-01 This research quantifies the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of wetland vegetation under the effect of multiple stresses, such as drought, water-logging, shade and nutrients. The effects of these stresses are investigated through a mechanistic model that captures the co-evolving nature between marsh emergent plant species and their resources (water, nitrogen, light, and oxygen). The model explicitly considers the feedback mechanisms between vegetation, light and nitrogen dynamics as well as the specific dynamics of plant leaves, rhizomes, and roots. Each plant species is characterized by three independent traits, namely leaf nitrogen (N) content, specific leaf area, and allometric carbon (C) allocation to rhizome storage, which govern the ability to gain and maintain resources as well as to survive in a particular multi-stressed environment. The modeling of plant growth incorporates C and N into the construction of leaves and roots, whose amount of new biomass is determined by the dynamic plant allocation scheme. Nitrogen is internally recycled between pools of plants, litter, humus, microbes, and mineral N. The N dynamics are modeled using a parallel scheme, with the major modifications being the calculation of the aerobic and anoxic periods and the incorporation of the anaerobic processes. A simple hydrologic model with stochastic rainfall is used to describe the water level dynamics and the soil moisture profile. Soil water balance is evaluated at the daily time scale and includes rainfall, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to/from an external water body, with evapotranspiration loss equal to the potential value, governed by the daily average condition of atmospheric water demand. The resulting feedback dynamics arising from the coupled system of plant-soil-microbe are studied in details and species’ fitnesses in the 3-D trait space are compared across various rainfall patterns with different mean and fluctuations. The model results are then compared with those from experiments and field studies reported in the literature, providing insights about the physiological features that enable plants to thrive in different wetland environments and climate regimes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2373Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2373Y">Underlying mechanisms leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition are unchanged under global warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yun, Kyung-Sook; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Ha, Kyung-Ja 2018-05-01 El Niño's transitions play critical roles in modulating severe weather and climate events. Therefore, understanding the dynamic factors leading to El Niño's transitions and its future projection is a great challenge in predicting the diverse socioeconomic influences of El Niño over the globe. This study focuses on two dynamic factors controlling the El Niño-to-La Niña transition from the present climate and to future climate, using the observation, the historical and the RCP8.5 simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison phase 5 climate models. The first is the inter-basin coupling between the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific through the subtropical high variability. The second is the enhanced sensitivity between sea surface temperature and a deep tropical convection in the central tropical Pacific during the El Niño's developing phase. We show that the dynamic factors leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition in the present climate are unchanged in spite of the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that the two dynamic factors are strongly constrained by the climatological precipitation distribution over the central tropical Pacific and western North Pacific as little changed from the present climate to future climate. This implies that two dynamical processes leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transitions in the present climate will also play a robust role in global warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22314857','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22314857">Climate policy in India: what shapes international, national and state policy?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Atteridge, Aaron; Shrivastava, Manish Kumar; Pahuja, Neha; Upadhyay, Himani 2012-01-01 At the international level, India is emerging as a key actor in climate negotiations, while at the national and sub-national levels, the climate policy landscape is becoming more active and more ambitious. It is essential to unravel this complex landscape if we are to understand why policy looks the way it does, and the extent to which India might contribute to a future international framework for tackling climate change as well as how international parties might cooperate with and support India's domestic efforts. Drawing on both primary and secondary data, this paper analyzes the material and ideational drivers that are most strongly influencing policy choices at different levels, from international negotiations down to individual states. We argue that at each level of decision making in India, climate policy is embedded in wider policy concerns. In the international realm, it is being woven into broader foreign policy strategy, while domestically, it is being shaped to serve national and sub-national development interests. While our analysis highlights some common drivers at all levels, it also finds that their influences over policy are not uniform across the different arenas, and in some cases, they work in different ways at different levels of policy. We also indicate what this may mean for the likely acceptability within India of various climate policies being pushed at the international level. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1410829G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1410829G">Application of statistical downscaling technique for the production of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) in Spain</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gaitán Fernández, E.; García Moreno, R.; Pino Otín, M. R.; Ribalaygua Batalla, J. 2012-04-01 Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation Models (GCM) has become important tools to simulate the more relevant aspects of the climate expected for the XXI century in the frame of climatic change. These models are able to reproduce the general features of the atmospheric dynamic but their low resolution (about 200 Km) avoids a proper simulation of lower scale meteorological effects. Downscaling techniques allow overcoming this problem by adapting the model outcomes to local scale. In this context, FIC (Fundación para la Investigación del Clima) has developed a statistical downscaling technique based on a two step analogue methods. This methodology has been broadly tested on national and international environments leading to excellent results on future climate models. In a collaboration project, this statistical downscaling technique was applied to predict future scenarios for the grape growing systems in Spain. The application of such model is very important to predict expected climate for the different growing crops, mainly for grape, where the success of different varieties are highly related to climate and soil. The model allowed the implementation of agricultural conservation practices in the crop production, detecting highly sensible areas to negative impacts produced by any modification of climate in the different regions, mainly those protected with protected designation of origin, and the definition of new production areas with optimal edaphoclimatic conditions for the different varieties. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.1765Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.1765Y">How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E. 2017-09-01 The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900018878','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900018878">Lower thermosphere (80-100 km) dynamics response to solar and geomagnetic activity: Overview</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kazimirovsky, E. S. 1989-01-01 The variations of solar and geomagnetic activity may affect the thermosphere circulation via plasma heating and electric fields, especially at high latitudes. The possibility exists that the energy involved in auroral and magnetic storms can produce significant changes of mesosphere and lower thermosphere wind systems. A study of global radar measurements of winds at 80 to 100 km region revealed the short term effects (correlation between wind field and geomagnetic storms) and long term variations over a solar cycle. It seems likely that the correlation results from a modification of planetary waves and tides propagated from below, thus altering the dynamical regime of the thermosphere. Sometimes the long term behavior points rather to a climatic variation with the internal atmospheric cause than to a direct solar control. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375423-status-challenge-global-fire-modelling','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375423-status-challenge-global-fire-modelling">The status and challenge of global fire modelling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ... 2016-06-09 Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70196513','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70196513">Advancing dendrochronological studies of fire in the United States</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Harley, Grant L.; Baisan, Christopher H.; Brown, Peter M.; Falk, Donald A.; Flatley, William T.; Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.; Hessl, Amy; Heyerdahl, Emily K.; Kaye, Margot W.; Lafon, Charles W.; Margolis, Ellis; Maxwell, R. Stockton; Naito, Adam T.; Platt, William J.; Rother, Monica T.; Saladyga, Thomas; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; Stachowiak, Lauren A.; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Sutherland, Elaine Kennedy; Taylor, Alan H. 2018-01-01 Dendroecology is the science that dates tree rings to their exact calendar year of formation to study processes that influence forest ecology (e.g., Speer 2010, Amoroso et al., 2017). Reconstruction of past fire regimes is a core application of dendroecology, linking fire history to population dynamics and climate effects on tree growth and survivorship. Since the early 20th century when dendrochronologists recognized that tree rings retained fire scars (e.g., Figure 1), and hence a record of past fires, they have conducted studies worldwide to reconstruct the historical range and variability of fire regimes (e.g., frequency, severity, seasonality, spatial extent), the influence of fire regimes on forest structure and ecosystem dynamics, and the top-down (e.g., climate) and bottom-up (e.g., fuels, topography) drivers of fire that operate at a range of temporal and spatial scales. As in other scientific fields, continued application of dendrochronological techniques to study fires has shaped new trajectories for the science. Here we highlight some important current directions in the United States (US) and call on our international colleagues to continue the conversation with perspectives from other countries. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016BGeo...13.3359H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016BGeo...13.3359H">The status and challenge of global fire modelling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao 2016-06-01 Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375423','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375423">The status and challenge of global fire modelling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P. Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24979763','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24979763">Multiannual forecasting of seasonal influenza dynamics reveals climatic and evolutionary drivers.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Axelsen, Jacob Bock; Yaari, Rami; Grenfell, Bryan T; Stone, Lewi 2014-07-01 Human influenza occurs annually in most temperate climatic zones of the world, with epidemics peaking in the cold winter months. Considerable debate surrounds the relative role of epidemic dynamics, viral evolution, and climatic drivers in driving year-to-year variability of outbreaks. The ultimate test of understanding is prediction; however, existing influenza models rarely forecast beyond a single year at best. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model to reveal multiannual predictability based on high-quality influenza surveillance data for Israel; the model fit is corroborated by simple metapopulation comparisons within Israel. Successful forecasts are driven by temperature, humidity, antigenic drift, and immunity loss. Essentially, influenza dynamics are a balance between large perturbations following significant antigenic jumps, interspersed with nonlinear epidemic dynamics tuned by climatic forcing. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H43L..07A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H43L..07A">Natural Length Scales Shape Liquid Phase Continuity in Unsaturated Flows</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Assouline, S.; Lehmann, P. G.; Or, D. 2015-12-01 Unsaturated flows supporting soil evaporation and internal drainage play an important role in various hydrologic and climatic processes manifested at a wide range of scales. We study inherent natural length scales that govern these flow processes and constrain the spatial range of their representation by continuum models. These inherent length scales reflect interactions between intrinsic porous medium properties that affect liquid phase continuity, and the interplay among forces that drive and resist unsaturated flow. We have defined an intrinsic length scale for hydraulic continuity based on pore size distribution that controls soil evaporation dynamics (i.e., stage 1 to stage 2 transition). This simple metric may be used to delineate upper bounds for regional evaporative losses or the depth of soil-atmosphere interactions (in the absence of plants). A similar length scale governs the dynamics of internal redistribution towards attainment of field capacity, again through its effect on hydraulic continuity in the draining porous medium. The study provides a framework for guiding numerical and mathematical models for capillary flows across different scales considering the necessary conditions for coexistence of stationarity (REV), hydraulic continuity and intrinsic capillary gradients. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H33C1156R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.H33C1156R">System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G. 2010-12-01 Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24772388','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24772388">Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V 2013-09-01 Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3997168','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3997168">Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V. 2014-01-01 Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC34A..02H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC34A..02H">Contributions of internal climate variability to mitigation of projected future regional sea level rise</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hu, A.; Bates, S. C. 2017-12-01 Observations indicate that the global mean surface temperature is rising, so does the global mean sea level. Sea level rise (SLR) can impose significant impacts on island and coastal communities, especially when SLR is compounded with storm surges. Here, via analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model version 1, we investigate how the potential SLR benefits through mitigating the future emission scenarios from business as usual to a mild-mitigation over the 21st Century would be affected by internal climate variability. Results show that there is almost no SLR benefit in the near term due to the large SLR variability due to the internal ocean dynamics. However, toward the end of the 21st century, the SLR benefit can be as much as a 26±1% reduction of the global mean SLR due to seawater thermal expansion. Regionally, the benefits from this mitigation for both near and long terms are heterogeneous. They vary from just a 11±5% SLR reduction in Melbourne, Australia to a 35±6% reduction in London. The processes contributing to these regional differences are the coupling of the wind-driven ocean circulation with the decadal scale sea surface temperature mode in the Pacific and Southern Oceans, and the changes of the thermohaline circulation and the mid-latitude air-sea coupling in the Atlantic. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12a3002J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12a3002J">A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku 2017-01-01 Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3004H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3004H">Data mining on long-term barometric data within the ARISE2 project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hupe, Patrick; Ceranna, Lars; Pilger, Christoph 2016-04-01 The Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) led to the implementation of an international infrasound array network. The International Monitoring System (IMS) network includes 48 certified stations, each providing data for up to 15 years. As part of work package 3 of the ARISE2 project (Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe, phase 2) the data sets will be statistically evaluated with regard on atmospheric dynamics. The current study focusses on fluctuations of absolute air pressure. Time series have been analysed for 17 monitoring stations which are located all over the world between Greenland and Antarctica along the latitudes to represent different climate zones and characteristic atmospheric conditions. Hence this enables quantitative comparisons between those regions. Analyses are shown including wavelet power spectra, multi-annual time series of average variances with regard to long-wave scales, and spectral densities to derive characteristics and special events. Evaluations reveal periodicities in average variances on 2 to 20 day scale with a maximum in the winter months and a minimum in summer of the respective hemisphere. This basically applies to time series of IMS stations beyond the tropics where the dominance of cyclones and anticyclones changes with seasons. Furthermore, spectral density analyses illustrate striking signals for several dynamic activities within one day, e.g., the semidiurnal tide. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=322898','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=322898">Reconstruction of the dynamics of the climatic system from time-series data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Nicolis, C.; Nicolis, G. 1986-01-01 The oxygen isotope record of the last million years, as provided by a deep sea core sediment, is analyzed by a method recently developed in the theory of dynamical systems. The analysis suggests that climatic variability is the manifestation of a chaotic dynamics described by an attractor of fractal dimensionality. A quantitative measure of the limited predictability of the climatic system is provided by the evaluation of the time-correlation function and the largest positive Lyapounov exponent of the system. PMID:16593650 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194125','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194125">Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R 2017-01-01 Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2086O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.2086O">Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander 2017-04-01 Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of climate change in Western Siberia, and dissemination of the Project results. Results of the first stage of the Project implementation are presented. This work is supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No16-19-10257. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29152181','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29152181">Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R 2017-11-01 Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2805J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2805J">Dynamical Core in Atmospheric Model Does Matter in the Simulation of Arctic Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jun, Sang-Yoon; Choi, Suk-Jin; Kim, Baek-Min 2018-03-01 Climate models using different dynamical cores can simulate significantly different winter Arctic climates even if equipped with virtually the same physics schemes. Current climate simulated by the global climate model using cubed-sphere grid with spectral element method (SE core) exhibited significantly warmer Arctic surface air temperature compared to that using latitude-longitude grid with finite volume method core. Compared to the finite volume method core, SE core simulated additional adiabatic warming in the Arctic lower atmosphere, and this was consistent with the eddy-forced secondary circulation. Downward longwave radiation further enhanced Arctic near-surface warming with a higher surface air temperature of about 1.9 K. Furthermore, in the atmospheric response to the reduced sea ice conditions with the same physical settings, only the SE core showed a robust cooling response over North America. We emphasize that special attention is needed in selecting the dynamical core of climate models in the simulation of the Arctic climate and associated teleconnection patterns. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PNAS..11410622S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PNAS..11410622S">Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J.; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E. 2017-12-01 Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29208716','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29208716">Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Smith, Laurence C; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T; Chu, Vena W; Rennermalm, Åsa K; Ryan, Jonathan C; Cooper, Matthew G; Gleason, Colin J; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E; Jenner, Brittany A; Behar, Alberto E 2017-12-12 Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km 2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207-1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5740616','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5740616">Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E. 2017-01-01 Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. PMID:29208716 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP22A..04P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP22A..04P">Multi-centennial upper-ocean heat content reconstruction using online data assimilation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Perkins, W. A.; Hakim, G. J. 2017-12-01 The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) provides an advanced paleoclimate ensemble data assimilation framework for multi-variate climate field reconstructions over the Common Era. Although reconstructions in this framework with full Earth system models remain prohibitively expensive, recent work has shown improved ensemble reconstruction validation using computationally inexpensive linear inverse models (LIMs). Here we leverage these techniques in pursuit of a new multi-centennial field reconstruction of upper-ocean heat content (OHC), synthesizing model dynamics with observational constraints from proxy records. OHC is an important indicator of internal climate variability and responds to planetary energy imbalances. Therefore, a consistent extension of the OHC record in time will help inform aspects of low-frequency climate variability. We use the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) last millennium simulations to derive the LIMs, and the PAGES2K v.2.0 proxy database to perform annually resolved reconstructions of upper-OHC, surface air temperature, and wind stress over the last 500 years. Annual OHC reconstructions and uncertainties for both the global mean and regional basins are compared against observational and reanalysis data. We then investigate differences in dynamical behavior at decadal and longer time scales between the reconstruction and simulations in the last-millennium Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Preliminary investigation of 1-year forecast skill for an OHC-only LIM shows largely positive spatial grid point local anomaly correlations (LAC) with a global average LAC of 0.37. Compared to 1-year OHC persistence forecast LAC (global average LAC of 0.30), the LIM outperforms the persistence forecasts in the tropical Indo-Pacific region, the equatorial Atlantic, and in certain regions near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In other regions, the forecast correlations are less than the persistence case but still positive overall. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C12B..05T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C12B..05T">Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D. 2017-12-01 The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23800836','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23800836">Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Beggs, Paul John 2014-01-01 Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014IJBm...58....1B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014IJBm...58....1B">Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Beggs, Paul John 2014-01-01 Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......164G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......164G">Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Goldenson, Naomi L. Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21E0989A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21E0989A">Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R. 2017-12-01 There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15..919A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15..919A">Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K. 2018-02-01 Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188640','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70188640">Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B. 2017-01-01 Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly sensitive to climate extremes during periods of high stem density following major regeneration events when average inter-tree competition was high. Results suggest the resistance and resilience of forest growth to climate extremes can be increased through management steps such as thinning to reduce competition during early stages of stand development and small-group selection harvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4341D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4341D">Reflections on the nature of non-linear responses of the climate to forcing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ditlevsen, Peter 2017-04-01 On centennial to multi-millennial time scales the paleoclimatic record shows that climate responds in a very non-linear way to the external forcing. Perhaps most puzzling is the change in glacial period duration at the Middle Pleistocene Transition. From a dynamical systems perspective, this could be a change in frequency locking between the orbital forcing and the climatic response or it could be a non-linear resonance phenomenon. In both cases the climate system shows a non-trivial oscillatory behaviour. From the records it seems that this behaviour can be described by an effective dynamics on a low-dimensional slow manifold. These different possible dynamical behaviours will be discussed. References: Arianna Marchionne, Peter Ditlevsen, and Sebastian Wieczorek, "Three types of nonlinear resonances", arXiv:1605.00858 Peter Ashwin and Peter Ditlevsen, "The middle Pleistocene transition as a generic bifurcation on a slow manifold", Climate Dynamics, 45, 2683, 2015. Peter D. Ditlevsen, "The bifurcation structure and noise assisted transitions in the Pleistocene glacial cycles", Paleoceanography, 24, PA3204, 2009 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP12B..03D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP12B..03D">A New ɛNd Record Covering Termination II</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Deaney, E. L.; Thornalley, D. J.; van de Flierdt, T.; Kreissig, K.; Barker, S. 2014-12-01 The 143Nd/144Nd ratio (ɛNd) of seawater is used as a quasi-conservative tracer to examine past changes in water mass composition of the deep ocean. Records of ɛNd across the last deglaciation (Termination 1, T1) provide valuable information about water mass mixing that has improved our understanding of the ocean dynamics relevant to the process of deglaciation. However, questions remain concerning end-member source characteristics and regional hydrographic processes. Here we present a high resolution record of ɛNd derived from fish debris from ODP site 1063 across Termination 2. The different external and internal forcing (e.g. insolation versus freshwater) applicable to T2 make this a useful comparator for studies focused on T1. Accordingly we find large (up to 4 ɛNd units) fluctuations across T2 that can be related to high latitude climate changes as recorded by ice cores and other high resolution climate archives. We also identify periods of extremely negative values that require new explanations for changing end-member compositions. Our results have important implications for understanding North Atlantic deep water formation processes during critical climate transitions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26057724','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26057724">Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da 2015-11-01 Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC11A..07R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC11A..07R">Uncertainty in future projections of global and regional marine fisheries catches</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Reygondeau, G.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Froelicher, T. L.; Stock, C. A.; Jones, M. C.; Sarmiento, J. L. 2016-02-01 Previous studies have projected the global redistribution of potential marine fisheries catches by mid-21st century under climate change, with increases in high latitude regions and pronounced decreases in tropical biomes. However, quantified confidence levels of such projections are not available, rendering it difficult to interpret the associated risk to society. This paper quantifies the confidence of changes in future fish production using a 30-member ensemble simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M (representing internal variability of oceanographic conditions), three structural variants of a mechanistic species distribution model (representing uncertainty in fisheries models and different greenhouse gas emission and fishing scenarios (representing scenario uncertainty). We project that total potential catches of 500 exploited fish and invertebrate stocks, that contribute most to regional fisheries catches and their variability, will likely decrease in the 21st century under a `business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). Fishing and it's management remains a main factor determining future fish stocks and their catches. Internal variability of projected ocean conditions, including temperature, oxygen level, pH, net primary production and sea ice contributes substantially to the uncertainty of potential catch projections. Regionally, climate-driven decreases in potential catches in tropical oceans and increases in the Arctic polar regions are projected with higher confidence than other regions, while the direction of changes in most mid-latitude (or temperate) regions is uncertain. Under a stringent greenhouse gas mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change impacts on potential catches may not emerge from their uncertainties. Overall, this study provides a foundation for quantifying risks of climate change impacts on marine fisheries globally and regionally, and how such risk may be altered by policy interventions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMED12B..07R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMED12B..07R">Merging Energy Policy Decision Support, Education, and Communication: The 'World Energy' Simulation Role-Playing Game</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rooney-varga, J. N.; Franck, T.; Jones, A.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E. 2013-12-01 To meet international goals for climate change mitigation and adaptation, as well as energy access and equity, there is an urgent need to explore and define energy policy paths forward. Despite this need, students, citizens, and decision-makers often hold deeply flawed mental models of the energy and climate systems. Here we describe a simulation role-playing game, World Energy, that provides an immersive learning experience in which participants can create their own path forward for global energy policy and learn about the impact of their policy choices on carbon dioxide emissions, temperature rise, energy supply mix, energy prices, and energy demand. The game puts players in the decision-making roles of advisors to the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (drawn from international leaders from industry, governments, intergovernmental organizations, and citizens groups) and, using a state-of-the-art decision-support simulator, asks them to negotiate a plan for global energy policy. We use the En-ROADS (Energy Rapid Overview and Decision Support) simulator, which runs on a laptop computer in <0.1 sec. En-ROADS enables users to specify many factors, including R&D-driven cost reductions in fossil fuel-based, renewable, or carbon-neutral energy technologies; taxes and subsidies for different energy sources; performance standards and energy efficiency; emissions prices; policies to address other greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.); and assumptions about GDP and population. In World Energy, participants must balance climate change mitigation goals with equity, prices and access to energy, and the political feasibility of policies. Initial results indicate participants gain insights into the dynamics of the energy and climate systems and greater understanding of the potential impacts policies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017HESS...21.2449C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017HESS...21.2449C">Ecohydrological optimality in the Northeast China Transect</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cong, Zhentao; Li, Qinshu; Mo, Kangle; Zhang, Lexin; Shen, Hong 2017-05-01 The Northeast China Transect (NECT) is one of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) terrestrial transects, where there is a significant precipitation gradient from east to west, as well as a vegetation transition of forest-grassland-desert. It is remarkable to understand vegetation distribution and dynamics under climate change in this transect. We take canopy cover (M), derived from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as an index to describe the properties of vegetation distribution and dynamics in the NECT. In Eagleson's ecohydrological optimality theory, the optimal canopy cover (M*) is determined by the trade-off between water supply depending on water balance and water demand depending on canopy transpiration. We apply Eagleson's ecohydrological optimality method in the NECT based on data from 2000 to 2013 to get M*, which is compared with M from NDVI to further discuss the sensitivity of M* to vegetation properties and climate factors. The result indicates that the average M* fits the actual M well (for forest, M* = 0.822 while M = 0.826; for grassland, M* = 0.353 while M = 0.352; the correlation coefficient between M and M* is 0.81). Results of water balance also match the field-measured data in the references. The sensitivity analyses show that M* decreases with the increase of leaf area index (LAI), stem fraction and temperature, while it increases with the increase of leaf angle and precipitation amount. Eagleson's ecohydrological optimality method offers a quantitative way to understand the impacts of climate change on canopy cover and provides guidelines for ecorestoration projects. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....17.6439S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ACP....17.6439S">Thermodynamic and dynamic responses of the hydrological cycle to solar dimming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Smyth, Jane E.; Russotto, Rick D.; Storelvmo, Trude 2017-05-01 The fundamental role of the hydrological cycle in the global climate system motivates a thorough evaluation of its responses to climate change and mitigation. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinated international effort to assess the climate impacts of solar geoengineering, a proposal to counteract global warming with a reduction in incoming solar radiation. We assess the mechanisms underlying the rainfall response to a simplified simulation of such solar dimming (G1) in the suite of GeoMIP models and identify robust features. While solar geoengineering nearly restores preindustrial temperatures, the global hydrology is altered. Tropical precipitation changes dominate the response across the model suite, and these are driven primarily by shifts of the Hadley circulation cells. We report a damping of the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in G1, associated with preferential cooling of the summer hemisphere, and annual mean ITCZ shifts in some models that are correlated with the warming of one hemisphere relative to the other. Dynamical changes better explain the varying tropical rainfall anomalies between models than changes in relative humidity or the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), given that the relative humidity and temperature responses are robust across the suite. Strong reductions in relative humidity over vegetated land regions are likely related to the CO2 physiological response in plants. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of tropical P - E changes highlights the need for cautious consideration and continued study before any implementation of solar geoengineering. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54546','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54546">Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh 2017-01-01 The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS23B1398B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS23B1398B">Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S. 2017-12-01 Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3952195','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3952195">Counting whales in a challenging, changing environment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Williams, R.; Kelly, N.; Boebel, O.; Friedlaender, A. S.; Herr, H.; Kock, K.-H.; Lehnert, L. S.; Maksym, T.; Roberts, J.; Scheidat, M.; Siebert, U.; Brierley, A. S. 2014-01-01 Estimating abundance of Antarctic minke whales is central to the International Whaling Commission's conservation and management work and understanding impacts of climate change on polar marine ecosystems. Detecting abundance trends is problematic, in part because minke whales are frequently sighted within Antarctic sea ice where navigational safety concerns prevent ships from surveying. Using icebreaker-supported helicopters, we conducted aerial surveys across a gradient of ice conditions to estimate minke whale density in the Weddell Sea. The surveys revealed substantial numbers of whales inside the sea ice. The Antarctic summer sea ice is undergoing rapid regional change in annual extent, distribution, and length of ice-covered season. These trends, along with substantial interannual variability in ice conditions, affect the proportion of whales available to be counted by traditional shipboard surveys. The strong association between whales and the dynamic, changing sea ice requires reexamination of the power to detect trends in whale abundance or predict ecosystem responses to climate change. PMID:24622821 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27487117','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27487117">The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hart, P Sol; Feldman, Lauren 2016-01-01 Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4972420','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4972420">The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Hart, P. Sol; Feldman, Lauren 2016-01-01 Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed. PMID:27487117 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24418218','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24418218">Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R 2014-09-15 Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4987822','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4987822">Stochastic ice stream dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca 2016-01-01 Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28145038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28145038">Predictability in community dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian 2017-03-01 The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4878477','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4878477">Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna 2016-01-01 Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27140640','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27140640">Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna 2016-05-17 Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51I0198T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51I0198T">Structural uncertainty of downscaled climate model output in a difficult-to-resolve environment: data sparseness and parameterization error contribution to statistical and dynamical downscaling output in the U.S. Caribbean region</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Terando, A. J.; Grade, S.; Bowden, J.; Henareh Khalyani, A.; Wootten, A.; Misra, V.; Collazo, J.; Gould, W. A.; Boyles, R. 2016-12-01 Sub-tropical island nations may be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change because of predicted changes in the hydrologic cycle that would lead to significant drying in the future. However, decision makers in these regions have seen their adaptation planning efforts frustrated by the lack of island-resolving climate model information. Recently, two investigations have used statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques to develop climate change projections for the U.S. Caribbean region (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands). We compare the results from these two studies with respect to three commonly downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The GCMs were dynamically downscaled at a convective-permitting scale using two different regional climate models. The statistical downscaling approach was conducted at locations with long-term climate observations and then further post-processed using climatologically aided interpolation (yielding two sets of projections). Overall, both approaches face unique challenges. The statistical approach suffers from a lack of observations necessary to constrain the model, particularly at the land-ocean boundary and in complex terrain. The dynamically downscaled model output has a systematic dry bias over the island despite ample availability of moisture in the atmospheric column. Notwithstanding these differences, both approaches are consistent in projecting a drier climate that is driven by the strong global-scale anthropogenic forcing. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26124134','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26124134">Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Laneri, Karina; Paul, Richard E; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata; Sokhna, Cheikh; Trape, Jean-François; Rodó, Xavier 2015-07-14 Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human-mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..04S">An Ensemble Approach to Understanding the ENSO Response to Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L. 2017-12-01 The dynamics of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be sensitive to changes in background climate conditions, as well as atmosphere/ocean feedbacks. However, the degree to which shifts in ENSO characteristics can be robustly attributed to external climate forcings remains unknown. Efforts to assess these changes in a multi-model framework are subject to uncertainties due to both differing model physics and internal ENSO variability. New community ensembles created at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory are ideally suited to addressing this problem, providing many realizations of the climate of the 850-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors. Here we analyze the impacts of external forcing on El Nino and La Nina evolution using four sets of simulations: the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME), which covers the 850-2005 period and provides long-term context for forced responses; the Large Ensemble (CESM-LE), which includes 20th century and 21st century (RCP8.5) projections; the Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME), which is composed of 21st century RCP4.5 projections; and a large ensemble with the GFDL ESM2M, which includes 20th century and RCP8.5 projections. In the CESM, ENSO variance increases slightly over the 20th century in all ensembles, with the effects becoming much larger during the 21st. The slower increase in variance over the 20th century is shown to arise from compensating influences from greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, which give way to GHG-dominated effects by 2100. However, the 21st century variance increase is not robust: CESM and the ESM2M differ drastically in their ENSO projections. The mechanisms for these inter-model differences are discussed, as are the implications for the design of future multi-model ENSO projection experiments. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN32A..01R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUSMIN32A..01R">Building and Sustaining International Scientific Partnerships Through Data Sharing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ramamurthy, M. K.; Yoksas, T.; Miller, L. 2007-05-01 Understanding global environmental processes and their regional linkages has heightened the importance of full, open, and timely access to earth system science data and strong international scientific partnerships. To that end, the Unidata Program at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research has developed a growing portfolio of international outreach activities, conducted in close collaboration with academic, research and operational institutions on several continents. The overarching goals of Unidata's international activities include: - democratization of access-to and use-of data that describe the dynamic earth system - building capacity and empowering geoscientists and educators worldwide - strengthening international science partnerships for exchanging knowledge and expertise - effectuating sustainable cultural changes that recognize the benefits of data sharing, and - helping to build regional and global communities around specific geoscientific themes Using an Internet-based data sharing network, Unidata has made great strides in establishing the underpinnings of a worldwide data sharing network. To date, over 160 institutions of higher education worldwide are participating in this data sharing effort. The Internet Data Distribution (IDD) system, as it is known, was originally developed for sharing mostly atmospheric science data among U.S. institutions. It has now been extended beyond North America into a system of interconnected regional data networks encompassing Latin America, the Caribbean, Antarctica, Asia, Europe, and most recently Africa. The adoption of the IDD concept in Brazil has been so successful that Brazil now ranks second behind the U. S. in the number of institutions participating in their own regionally customized and managed data sharing network, which is dubbed the IDD-Brazil. Another noteworthy data distribution network, Antarctic IDD, is leveraging the IDD system for the benefit of the Antarctic meteorological research community. The availability of observations from polar areas is especially crucial for documenting the nature and extent of climate change, for those are the very regions that are projected to experience the most significant warming in climate simulations and as such most vulnerable from an Earth system science perspective. The democratizing and transformative effects of access to data in atmospheric science education and research cannot be overstated. A critical component of successful scientific inquiry includes learning how to collect, process, analyze, and integrate data from myriad sources, and geoscience education is uniquely suited in making science relevant by drawing connections between the dynamic Earth system and societal impacts. Continued collaborations that emerge from such data sharing efforts will result in greater understanding of a range of geoscientific problems including advances in climate change and hydrologic sciences, and weather and El Nino predictions. Moreover, they will provide a richer analysis of the evolving state of the planet. An overview of Unidata's international data sharing activities that are resulting in an organic growth of the Unidata community and increased partnership for sharing knowledge and experience will be presented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011WRR....4712528N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011WRR....4712528N">Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E. 2011-12-01 Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21E0980P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21E0980P">An 'Observational Large Ensemble' to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C. 2017-12-01 Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512161M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512161M">The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maraun, Douglas 2013-04-01 When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJSEd..39.1846T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017IJSEd..39.1846T">The influence of causal knowledge on the willingness to change attitude towards climate change: results from an empirical study</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca 2017-09-01 Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.C41B0670T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.C41B0670T">Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D. 2016-12-01 Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-07-27/pdf/2010-18317.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-07-27/pdf/2010-18317.pdf">75 FR 43944 - Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2010-07-27 ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board; Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-06-17/pdf/2010-14672.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2010-06-17/pdf/2010-14672.pdf">75 FR 34438 - Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and...</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2010-06-17 ... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD... and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security will meet in closed session... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=national+AND+parks&id=EJ983706','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=national+AND+parks&id=EJ983706">Engaging Visitors in Climate Change Communication: A Case Study of Southern Florida's National Parks and Wildlife Refuges</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Beard, Caroline A.; Thompson, Jessica Leigh 2012-01-01 Through the lens of place-based climate change communication, this manuscript compares results from internal and external assessments of capacity to communicate about climate change at national parks and refuges in southern Florida. The internal survey sample included agency staff, stakeholders, community partners, and concessionaires; the… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=climate+AND+change+AND+evidence&pg=4&id=EJ902430','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=climate+AND+change+AND+evidence&pg=4&id=EJ902430">Responses to Climate Change: Exploring Organisational Learning across Internationally Networked Organisations for Development</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Boyd, Emily; Osbahr, Henny 2010-01-01 Drawing from the organisational learning and governance literature, this paper assesses four internationally networked governmental and non-governmental organisations in the UK addressing climate change. We analyse how those concerned understand the climate change crisis, what mechanisms are put in place to address information flows, and what… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMIN43D..04P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMIN43D..04P">Distributed data discovery, access and visualization services to Improve Data Interoperability across different data holdings</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Palanisamy, G.; Krassovski, M.; Devarakonda, R.; Santhana Vannan, S. 2012-12-01 The current climate debate is highlighting the importance of free, open, and authoritative sources of high quality climate data that are available for peer review and for collaborative purposes. It is increasingly important to allow various organizations around the world to share climate data in an open manner, and to enable them to perform dynamic processing of climate data. This advanced access to data can be enabled via Web-based services, using common "community agreed" standards without having to change their internal structure used to describe the data. The modern scientific community has become diverse and increasingly complex in nature. To meet the demands of such diverse user community, the modern data supplier has to provide data and other related information through searchable, data and process oriented tool. This can be accomplished by setting up on-line, Web-based system with a relational database as a back end. The following common features of the web data access/search systems will be outlined in the proposed presentation: - A flexible data discovery - Data in commonly used format (e.g., CSV, NetCDF) - Preparing metadata in standard formats (FGDC, ISO19115, EML, DIF etc.) - Data subseting capabilities and ability to narrow down to individual data elements - Standards based data access protocols and mechanisms (SOAP, REST, OpenDAP, OGC etc.) - Integration of services across different data systems (discovery to access, visualizations and subseting) This presentation will also include specific examples of integration of various data systems that are developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory's - Climate Change Science Institute, their ability to communicate between each other to enable better data interoperability and data integration. References: [1] Devarakonda, Ranjeet, and Harold Shanafield. "Drupal: Collaborative framework for science research." Collaboration Technologies and Systems (CTS), 2011 International Conference on. IEEE, 2011. [2]Devarakonda, R., Shrestha, B., Palanisamy, G., Hook, L. A., Killeffer, T. S., Boden, T. A., ... & Lazer, K. (2014). THE NEW ONLINE METADATA EDITOR FOR GENERATING STRUCTURED METADATA. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JARS....8.3666F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JARS....8.3666F">Analysis of vegetation dynamics and climatic variability impacts on greenness across Canada using remotely sensed data from 2000 to 2009</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Fang, Xiuqin; Zhu, Qiuan; Chen, Huai; Ma, Zhihai; Wang, Weifeng; Song, Xinzhang; Zhao, Pengxiang; Peng, Changhui 2014-01-01 Using time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2000 to 2009, we assessed decadal vegetation dynamics across Canada and examined the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables (precipitation and temperature). The Palmer drought severity index and vapor pressure difference (VPD) were used to relate the vegetation changes to the climate, especially in cases of drought. Results indicated that MODIS NDVI measurements provided a dynamic picture of interannual variation in Canadian vegetation patterns. Greenness declined in 2000, 2002, and 2009 and increased in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Vegetation dynamics varied across regions during the period. Most forest land shows little change, while vegetation in the ecozone of Pacific Maritime, Prairies, and Taiga Shield shows more dynamics than in the others. Significant correlations were found between NDVI and the climatic variables. The variation of NDVI resulting from climatic variability was more highly correlated to temperature than to precipitation in most ecozones. Vegetation grows better with higher precipitation and temperature in almost all ecozones. However, vegetation grows worse under higher temperature in the Prairies ecozone. The annual changes in NDVI corresponded well with the change in VPD in most ecozones. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28545590','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28545590">Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A 2017-05-25 Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B52C..03M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B52C..03M">Regional-scale carbon and greenhouse gas dynamics of organic matter amendments on grassland soils</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mayer, A.; Silver, W. L. 2017-12-01 While progress is being made toward emissions reductions, achieving the international warming target of no more than 2 °C by 2100 will require active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This research explores the potential for grassland ecosystems to sequester soil carbon (C) and mitigate climate change over time. We parameterized a site-level biogeochemical model (DayCent) to predict the effect of compost applications on grassland net primary productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and soil C storage and loss. We compare the results of the DayCent model from seven grassland regions across a broad climate gradient in CA. We also modeled the impact of climate change under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and reduced emissions scenario (RCP 4.5). Model results show that a single application of compost leads to a large net increase in soil C over several decades across all sites. Maximum soil C sequestration relative to control simulations occurred approximately 15 years after a ¼ inch compost was applied to the land, resulting in a maximum net C drawdown of approximately 6.6 Mg C/ha (Mendocino) by 2030 and a continued climate benefit from enhanced C storage through the end of the century. Compost application resulted in enhanced soil C in both climate scenarios, but the reduced emissions climate scenario resulted in greater net C storage than the high emissions scenario by 2100. This points to a virtuous cycle of simultaneous emissions reductions leading to enhanced climate change mitigation potential from land management strategies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23878343','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23878343">Determining the response of African biota to climate change: using the past to model the future.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Willis, K J; Bennett, K D; Burrough, S L; Macias-Fauria, M; Tovar, C 2013-01-01 Prediction of biotic responses to future climate change in tropical Africa tends to be based on two modelling approaches: bioclimatic species envelope models and dynamic vegetation models. Another complementary but underused approach is to examine biotic responses to similar climatic changes in the past as evidenced in fossil and historical records. This paper reviews these records and highlights the information that they provide in terms of understanding the local- and regional-scale responses of African vegetation to future climate change. A key point that emerges is that a move to warmer and wetter conditions in the past resulted in a large increase in biomass and a range distribution of woody plants up to 400-500 km north of its present location, the so-called greening of the Sahara. By contrast, a transition to warmer and drier conditions resulted in a reduction in woody vegetation in many regions and an increase in grass/savanna-dominated landscapes. The rapid rate of climate warming coming into the current interglacial resulted in a dramatic increase in community turnover, but there is little evidence for widespread extinctions. However, huge variation in biotic response in both space and time is apparent with, in some cases, totally different responses to the same climatic driver. This highlights the importance of local features such as soils, topography and also internal biotic factors in determining responses and resilience of the African biota to climate change, information that is difficult to obtain from modelling but is abundant in palaeoecological records. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22068211','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22068211">Shift climate profiles and correlates in acute psychiatric inpatient units.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lewin, Terry J; Carr, Vaughan J; Conrad, Agatha M; Sly, Ketrina A; Tirupati, Srinivasan; Cohen, Martin; Ward, Philip B; Coombs, Tim 2012-09-01 Inpatient psychiatric units are dynamic in nature, potentially creating a different treatment experience for each person, which may be difficult to quantify. Among the goals of this multi-centre service evaluation project was an assessment of shift-to-shift changes in unit-level events and their impact on the social-emotional environment. Over 1 year, various nurse-completed logs were used within the 11 participating Australian psychiatric units (n = 5,546 admissions) to record patient- and unit-level events per shift, including ratings of the overall social-emotional climate using a novel shift climate ratings (SCR) scale (n = 8,176 shifts). These were combined with admission-level patient characteristics to investigate shift climate profiles and correlates. Occupancy rates averaged 88% and two-thirds of admissions were involuntary. The psychometric performance of the SCR scale was considered to be satisfactory (e.g., high internal consistency, unidimensional factor structure, and evidence of discriminant and predictive validity). A series of hierarchical regressions revealed considerable variation in SCR total scores, with poorer climates being significantly associated with: day/afternoon shifts; higher occupancy levels; higher proportions of experienced staff, and male, older, or involuntary patients; higher rates of less serious aggressive incidents; reporting of additional staffing demands; and unit location in a stand-alone psychiatric hospital. The day-to-day social-emotional climate can have important consequences for patient engagement and recovery. Improved understanding of the role played by unit, staff and patient characteristics, together with routine monitoring, should facilitate the development and evaluation of targeted interventions to reduce adverse incidents and improve the overall social-emotional climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005RPPh...68.1343H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005RPPh...68.1343H">Global warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Houghton, John 2005-06-01 'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1213810-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1213810-integrated-earth-system-model-version-formulation-functionality">The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Collins, W. D.; Craig, A. P.; Truesdale, J. E.; ... 2015-07-23 The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. Themore » iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910499K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910499K">The DACCIWA project: Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Knippertz, Peter 2017-04-01 This contribution provides an overview of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project. DACCIWA consists of 16 European and African research organisations and has strong links to universities, weather services and government organisations across West Africa. The project runs from 2010 to 2018 and is built around a major international field campaign in 2016. A key motivation for DACCIWA is the expected tripling of anthropogenic emissions in southern West Africa (SWA) between 2000 and 2030, whose impacts on human health, ecosystems, food security and the regional climate are largely unknown. An integrated assessment of this problem, which is mostly due to massive economic and population growth and urbanization, is challenging due to (a) a superposition of regional effects with global climate change, (b) a strong dependence on the variable West African monsoon, (c) incomplete scientific understanding of interactions between emissions, clouds, radiation, precipitation and regional circulations, and (d) a lack of observations. DACCIWA combines measurements in the field in SWA with extensive modelling activities and work on satellite data. In particular during the main DACCIWA field campaign in June-July 2016 high-quality observations of emissions, atmospheric composition and meteorological parameters were sampled. The campaign involved three research aircraft, three ground-based supersites, enhanced radiosonde launches, and intensive measurements at urban sites in Abidjan and Cotonou. These data have already been quality-controlled and will be freely available to the research community through a database at http://baobab.sedoo.fr/DACCIWA/ after the end of the project. The resulting benchmark dataset is currently combined with a wide range of modelling and satellite-based research activities that will ultimately allow (a) an assessment of the roles of relevant physical, chemical and biological processes, (b) an improvement of the monitoring of climate and atmospheric composition from space, and (c) a contribution to the development of the next generation of weather and climate models capable of representing coupled cloud-aerosol interactions. The latter will ultimately contribute to reduce uncertainties in climate predictions. An important part of the DACCIWA mission is to work with operational centres, international programs, policy-makers and users to foster the uptake of research results and to actively guide sustainable future planning for West Africa. Amongst other things, this will be achieved through the writing of policy briefs and recommendations for model development towards the end of the project. More specific aspects of DACCIWA will be presented in other contributions to this session. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HydJ...26..673R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018HydJ...26..673R">Topical Collection: Climate-change research by early-career hydrogeologists</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Re, Viviana; Maldaner, Carlos H.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Leblanc, Marc; Resende, Tales Carvalho; Stigter, Tibor Y. 2018-05-01 Scientific outreach, international networking, collaboration and adequate courses are needed in both developed and developing countries to enable early-career hydrogeologists to promote long-term multidisciplinary approaches to cope with climate-change issues and emphasize the importance of groundwater in a global strategy for adaptation. One such collaboration has involved the Early Career Hydrogeologists' Network of the International Association of Hydrogeologists (ECHN-IAH) and the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme's (IHP) Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Changes (GRAPHIC) project. This collaboration seeks to foster the education and involvement of the future generation of water leaders in the debate over groundwater and climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Nonli..30R..32L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017Nonli..30R..32L">Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lucarini, Valerio; Bódai, Tamás 2017-07-01 Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system’s response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and—for all practical purposes—irreversible changes in the properties of the system. As is well known, the Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches to the problem. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and collaborators for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluid dynamical systems, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic edge state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. The edge state attracts initial conditions belonging to such a boundary and, while being defined by the deterministic dynamics, is the gate facilitating noise-induced transitions between competing attractors. We use a simplified yet Earth-like intermediate complexity climate model constructed by coupling a primitive equations model of the atmosphere with a simple diffusive ocean. We refer to the climatic edge states as Melancholia states and provide an extensive analysis of their features. We study their dynamics, their symmetry properties, and we follow a complex set of bifurcations. We find situations where the Melancholia state has chaotic dynamics. In these cases, we have that the basin boundary between the two basins of attraction is a strange geometric set with a nearly zero codimension, and relate this feature to the time scale separation between instabilities occurring on weather and climatic time scales. We also discover a new stable climatic state that is similar to a Melancholia state and is characterized by non-trivial symmetry properties. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26959977','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26959977">Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben 2016-01-01 The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature 'well below 2°C' and to 'aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C'. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international 'pro-growth' strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve 'sustainable development' goals. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4784947','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4784947">Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John; Hankamer, Ben 2016-01-01 The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals. PMID:26959977 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1306152','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1306152"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J. The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GPC...165....1O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GPC...165....1O">Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor 2018-06-01 The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.9787B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.9787B">From the Last Interglacial to the Anthropocene: Modelling a Complete Glacial Cycle (PalMod)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Brücher, Tim; Latif, Mojib 2017-04-01 We will give a short overview and update on the current status of the national climate modelling initiative PalMod (Paleo Modelling, www.palmod.de). PalMod focuses on the understanding of the climate system dynamics and its variability during the last glacial cycle. The initiative is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and its specific topics are: (i) to identify and quantify the relative contributions of the fundamental processes which determined the Earth's climate trajectory and variability during the last glacial cycle, (ii) to simulate with comprehensive Earth System Models (ESMs) the climate from the peak of the last interglacial - the Eemian warm period - up to the present, including the changes in the spectrum of variability, and (iii) to assess possible future climate trajectories beyond this century during the next millennia with sophisticated ESMs tested in such a way. The research is intended to be conducted over a period of 10 years, but with shorter funding cycles. PalMod kicked off in February 2016. The first phase focuses on the last deglaciation (app. the last 23.000 years). From the ESM perspective PalMod pushes forward model development by coupling ESM with dynamical ice sheet models. Computer scientists work on speeding up climate models using different concepts (like parallelisation in time) and one working group is dedicated to perform a comprehensive data synthesis to validate model performance. The envisioned approach is innovative in three respects. First, the consortium aims at simulating a full glacial cycle in transient mode and with comprehensive ESMs which allow full interactions between the physical and biogeochemical components of the Earth system, including ice sheets. Second, we shall address climate variability during the last glacial cycle on a large range of time scales, from interannual to multi-millennial, and attempt to quantify the relative contributions of external forcing and processes internal to the Earth system to climate variability at different time scales. Third, in order to achieve a higher level of understanding of natural climate variability at time scales of millennia, its governing processes and implications for the future climate, we bring together three different research communities: the Earth system modeling community, the proxy data community and the computational science community. The consortium consists of 18 partners including all major modelling centers within Germany. The funding comprises approximately 65 PostDoc positions and more than 120 scientists are involved. PalMod is coordinated at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19920020773','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19920020773">ATLAS 1: Encountering Planet Earth</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Shea, Charlotte; Mcmahan, Tracy; Accardi, Denise; Tygielski, Michele; Mikatarian, Jeff; Wiginton, Margaret (Editor) 1984-01-01 Several NASA science programs examine the dynamic balance of sunlight, atmosphere, water, land, and life that governs Earth's environment. Among these is a series of Space Shuttle-Spacelab missions, named the Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science (ATLAS). During the ATLAS missions, international teams of scientists representing many disciplines combine their expertise to seek answers to complex questions about the atmospheric and solar conditions that sustain life on Earth. The ATLAS program specifically investigates how Earth's middle atmosphere and upper atmospheres and climate are affected by both the Sun and by products of industrial and agricultural activities on Earth. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3653R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3653R">Impact of external forcing on simulated hydroclimate from interannual to multicentennial timescales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Roldán, Pedro; Fidel González-Rouco, Jesús; Melo-Aguilar, Camilo 2017-04-01 During the last millennium, external forcing experienced important changes in different timescales. It has been demostrated that these changes had an impact on climate. In particular, changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions and emissions of greenhouse gases are related to short-term and long-term changes in global temperatures, with situations of higher total external forcing generally related with higher global and hemispherical temperatures, and conversely with situations of lower forcing. This connection is clearly observed in climate simulations from different models and in proxy-based reconstructions. The changes in external forcing can also explain certain changes in atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate, although in this case it is in general more difficult to trace causality arguments. Analyses based on simulations from two different models (ECHO-G and CESM-LME) have been performed, to assess the impact of external forcing on climate in timescales ranging from interannual to multicentennial. Various climatic variables have been analysed, including temperature, sea level pressure, surface wind, precipitation and soil moisture. For interannual timescales, composites have been defined with the years before and after the main volcanic eruptions of the last millennium as well as the minima of solar activity during this period. For longer timescales, a Principal Component analysis has been performed, to try to separate the signal of external forcing from that of internal variability. This has been done for the whole millennium and for the pre-industrial period, to assess the difference between natural and anthropogenic forcing. For multicentennial timescales, composites for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950-1250), the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450-1850) and the 20th Century have been compared. These three periods were respectively characterised by higher, lower and higher forcing. This allows to assess the contribution of external forcing to the evolution of climate over longer time intervals. These analyses have shown that external forcing is an important factor in the evolution of the simulated hydroclimate of the last millennium. In the short-term, it has been observed that volcanic eruptions and other situations of extreme forcing significantly alter the global precipitation in the subsequent years. In the long-term, variations of external forcing can be related to changes in atmospheric dynamics and in hydroclimate. However, this impact is not homogeneously distributed. There are areas where hydroclimate is mainly influenced by the external forcing and other areas more influenced by internal variability, with spatial decorrelation being higher in precipitation or drought related variables than in temperature. The regional sensitivity to external forcing of hydroclimate is model and, to a lesser degree, simulation dependent. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55301','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55301">Detection of the Coupling between Vegetation Leaf Area and Climate in a Multifunctional Watershed, Northwestern China</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Lu Hao; Cen Pan; Peilong Liu; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Zhe Xiong; Yongqiang Liu; Ge Sun 2016-01-01 Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphereâbiosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/24307','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/24307">Genetic consequences of forest population dynamics influenced by historic climatic variability in the western USA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Robert D. Westfall; Constance I. Millar 2004-01-01 We review recent advances in climate science that show cyclic climatic variation over multiple time scales and give examples of the impacts of this variation on plant populations in the western USA. The paleohistorical reconstructions we review and others indicate that plant specles track these cycles in individualistically complex ways. These dynamic histories suggest... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39961','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39961">Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> J.A. O' Donnell; J.W. Harden; A.D. McGuire; V.E. Romanovsky 2011-01-01 In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27222','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27222">The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson 2006-01-01 The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1817051K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1817051K">Towards Supporting Climate Scientists and Impact Assessment Analysts with the Big Data Europe Platform</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Klampanos, Iraklis; Vlachogiannis, Diamando; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Cofiño, Antonio; Charalambidis, Angelos; Lokers, Rob; Konstantopoulos, Stasinos; Karkaletsis, Vangelis 2016-04-01 The EU, Horizon 2020, project Big Data Europe (BDE) aims to support European companies and institutions in effectively managing and making use of big data in activities critical to their progress and success. BDE focuses on seven areas of societal impact: Health, Food and Agriculture, Energy, Transport, Climate, Social Sciences and Security. By reaching out to partners and stakeholders, BDE aims to elicit data-intensive requirements for, and deliver an ICT platform to cover aspects of publishing and consuming semantically interoperable, large-scale, multi-lingual data assets and knowledge. In this presentation we will describe the first BDE pilot for Climate, focusing on SemaGrow, its core component, which provides data querying and management based on data semantics. Over the last few decades, extended scientific effort in understanding climate change has resulted in a huge volume of model and observational data. Large international global and regional model inter-comparison projects have focused on creating a framework in support of climate model diagnosis, validation, documentation and data access. The application of climate model ensembles, a system consisting of different possible realisations of a climate model, has further significantly increased the amount of climate and weather data generated. The provision of such models satisfies the crucial objective of assessing potential impacts of climate change on well-being for adaptation, prevention and mitigation. One of the methodologies applied by the climate research and impact assessment communities is that of dynamical downscaling. This calculates values of atmospheric variables in smaller spatial and temporal scales, given a global model. On the company or institution level, this process can be greatly improved in terms of querying, data ingestion from various sources and formats, automatic data mapping, etc. The first Climate BDE pilot will facilitate the process of dynamical downscaling by providing a semantics-based interface to climate open data, eg{} to ESGF services, searching, downloading and indexing climate model and observational data, according to user requirements, such as coverage and experimental scenarios, executing dynamical downscaling models on institutional computing resources, and establishing a framework for metadata mappings and data lineage. The objectives of this pilot will be met building on the SemaGrow system and tools, which have been developed as part of the SemaGrow project in order to scale data intensive techniques up to extremely large data volumes and improve real time performance for agricultural experiments and analyses. SemaGrow is a query resolution and ingestion system for data and semantics. It is able to extract semantic features from data, index them and expose APIs to other BDE platform components. Moreover, SemaGrow provides tools for transforming and managing data in various formats (e.g. NetCDF), and their metadata. It can also interface between users and distributed, external data sources via SPARQL endpoints. This has been demonstrated as part of the SemaGrow project, on diverse and large-scale scientific use-cases. SemaGrow is an active data service in agINFRA, a data infrastructure for agriculture. https://github.com/semagrow/semagrow Big Data Europe (http://www.big-data-europe.eu) - grant agreement no.644564. Earth System Grid Federation: http://esgf.llnl.gov http://www.semagrow.eu http://aginfra.eu </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20121843','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20121843">A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hannah, Lee 2010-02-01 Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBC...2650122K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBC...2650122K">Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part III: Where is the Joint Between Norms and Hazards from a Bifurcation Analysis Viewpoint?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kolokolov, Yury; Monovskaya, Anna 2016-06-01 The paper continues the application of the bifurcation analysis in the research on local climate dynamics based on processing the historically observed data on the daily average land surface air temperature. Since the analyzed data are from instrumental measurements, we are doing the experimental bifurcation analysis. In particular, we focus on the discussion where is the joint between the normal dynamics of local climate systems (norms) and situations with the potential to create damages (hazards)? We illustrate that, perhaps, the criteria for hazards (or violent and unfavorable weather factors) relate mainly to empirical considerations from human opinion, but not to the natural qualitative changes of climate dynamics. To build the bifurcation diagrams, we base on the unconventional conceptual model (HDS-model) which originates from the hysteresis regulator with double synchronization. The HDS-model is characterized by a variable structure with the competition between the amplitude quantization and the time quantization. Then the intermittency between three periodical processes is considered as the typical behavior of local climate systems instead of both chaos and quasi-periodicity in order to excuse the variety of local climate dynamics. From the known specific regularities of the HDS-model dynamics, we try to find a way to decompose the local behaviors into homogeneous units within the time sections with homogeneous dynamics. Here, we present the first results of such decomposition, where the quasi-homogeneous sections (QHS) are determined on the basis of the modified bifurcation diagrams, and the units are reconstructed within the limits connected with the problem of shape defects. Nevertheless, the proposed analysis of the local climate dynamics (QHS-analysis) allows to exhibit how the comparatively modest temperature differences between the mentioned units in an annual scale can step-by-step expand into the great temperature differences of the daily variability at a centennial scale. Then the norms and the hazards relate to the fundamentally different viewpoints, where the time sections of months and, especially, seasons distort the causal effects of natural dynamical processes. The specific circumstances to realize the qualitative changes of the local climate dynamics are summarized by the notion of a likely periodicity. That, in particular, allows to explain why 30-year averaging remains the most common rule so far, but the decadal averaging begins to substitute that rule. We believe that the QHS-analysis can be considered as the joint between the norms and the hazards from a bifurcation analysis viewpoint, where the causal effects of the local climate dynamics are projected into the customary timescale only at the last step. We believe that the results could be interesting to develop the fields connected with climatic change and risk assessment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28292670','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28292670">Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L 2017-08-15 The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813442D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813442D">Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric 2016-04-01 The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236 </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.3406R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.3406R">Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> (Ruud) Bartholomeus, R. P.; (Flip) Witte, J. P. M.; (Peter) van Bodegom, P. M.; (Jos) van Dam, J. C.; (Rien) Aerts, R. 2010-05-01 With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. The first physiological process inhibited at high soil moisture contents is plant root respiration, i.e. oxygen consumption in the roots, which responds to increased temperatures. High soil moisture contents hamper oxygen transport from the atmosphere, through the soil - where part of the oxygen additionally disappears by soil microbial oxygen consumption - and to the root cells. Reduced respiration negatively affects the energy supply to plant metabolism. Plant transpiration, which responds to increased temperatures and atmospheric CO2-concentrations, is the first physiological process that will be inhibited by low soil moisture contents, negatively affecting both photosynthesis and cooling. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13A0207K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13A0207K">A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Komurcu, M.; Huber, M. 2016-12-01 Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27063736','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27063736">Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P 2016-03-31 The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20501867','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20501867">Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Stephenson, Judith; Newman, Karen; Mayhew, Susannah 2010-06-01 Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21(st) century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change). The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization, ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5330K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5330K">Climatic controls on the pace of glacier erosion</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Koppes, Michele; Hallet, Bernard; Rignot, Eric; Mouginot, Jeremie; Wellner, Julia; Love, Katherine 2016-04-01 Mountain ranges worldwide have undergone large-scale modification due the erosive action of ice, yet the mechanisms that control the timing of this modification and the rate by which ice erodes remain poorly understood. Available data report a wide range of erosion rates from individual ice masses over varying timescales, suggesting that modern erosion rates exceed orogenic rates by 2-3 orders of magnitude. These modern rates are presumed to be due to dynamic acceleration of the ice masses during deglaciation and retreat. Recent numerical models have focused on replicating the processes that produce the geomorphic signatures of glacial landscapes. Central to these models is a simple quantitative index that relates erosion rate to ice dynamics and to climate. To provide such an index, we examined explicitly the factors controlling modern glacier erosion rates across climatic regimes. Holding tectonic history, bedrock lithology and glacier hypsometries relatively constant across a latitudinal transect from Patagonia to the Antarctic Peninsula, we find that modern, basin-averaged erosion rates vary by three orders of magnitude, from 1->10 mm yr-1 for temperate tidewater glaciers to 0.01-<0.1 mm yr-1 for polar outlet glaciers, largely as a function of temperature and basal thermal regime. Erosion rates also increase non-linearly with both the sliding speed and the ice flux through the ELA, in accord with theory. The general relationship between ice dynamics and erosion suggests that the erosion rate scales non-linearly with basal sliding speed, with an exponent n ≈ 2-2.62. Notably, erosion rates decrease by over two orders of magnitude between temperate and polar glaciers with similar ice discharge rates. The difference in erosion rates between temperate and colder glaciers of similar shape and size is primarily related to the abundance of meltwater accessing the bed. Since all glaciers worldwide have experienced colder than current climatic conditions, the 100-fold decrease in long-term relative to modern erosion rates may in part reflect the temporal averaging of warm and cold-based conditions over the lifecycle of these glaciers. Higher temperatures and precipitation rates at the end of glaciations favor the production of water from rainfall, surface melting and internal melting, which promotes sliding, erosion and sediment production and evacuation from under the ice. Hence, climatic variation, more than the extent of ice cover or ice volume, controls the pace at which glaciers shape mountains. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMGC43B..09C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMGC43B..09C">Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B. 2013-05-01 Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatCC...8..101C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatCC...8..101C">Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga 2018-01-01 Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813711G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813711G">Climate impacts on agricultural biomass production in the CORDEX.be project context</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gobin, Anne; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; Willems, Patrick; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Marbaix, Philippe; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Fettweis, Xavier; De Ridder, Koen; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Luyten, Patrick; Pottiaux, Eric 2016-04-01 The most important coordinated international effort to translate the IPCC-AR5 outcomes to regional climate modelling is the so-called "COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment" (CORDEX, http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/). CORDEX.be is a national initiative that aims at combining the Belgian climate and impact modelling research into a single network. The climate network structure is naturally imposed by the top-down data flow, from the four participating upper-air Regional Climate Modelling groups towards seven Local Impact Models (LIMs). In addition to the production of regional climate projections following the CORDEX guidelines, very high-resolution results are provided at convection-permitting resolutions of about 4 km across Belgium. These results are coupled to seven local-impact models with severity indices as output. A multi-model approach is taken that allows uncertainty estimation, a crucial aspect of climate projections for policy-making purposes. The down-scaled scenarios at 4 km resolution allow for impact assessment in different Belgian agro-ecological zones. Climate impacts on arable agriculture are quantified using REGCROP which is a regional dynamic agri-meteorological model geared towards modelling climate impact on biomass production of arable crops (Gobin, 2010, 2012). Results from previous work show that heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depend on the crop type and the field conditions. Root crops such as potato will experience increased drought stress particularly when the probability rises that sensitive crop stages coincide with dry spells. This may be aggravated when wet springs cause water logging in the field and delay planting dates. Despite lower summer precipitation projections for future climate in Belgium, winter cereal yield reductions due to drought stress will be smaller due to earlier maturity. Preliminary results will be presented using the new scenario runs for Belgium. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3315267','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3315267">Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Simane, Belay; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Mesfin, Desalegn 2012-01-01 Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study, describes the principles of the climate resilience framework, and proposes an implementation strategy for climate resilient development to be applied in the Abay Highlands, with potential expansion to agricultural communities across the region and beyond. PMID:22470313 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25576276','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25576276">Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Verrot, Lucile; Destouni, Georgia 2015-01-01 Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950-2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4972146','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4972146">Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H.; Moore, Kara A.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E. 2016-01-01 Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasise several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. PMID:26872305 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26872305','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26872305">Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E 2016-08-01 Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1017754','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1017754">The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic Framework for the Department of Defense</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 2016-03-24 Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security (Alexandria, VA: The Institute for Defense Analyses, 2009), 3. 3 in...Security Needs Assessment, (New York: United Nations, 2012), 7. 50 Christine Youngblut, Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National...Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 10-01-2015 - 03-19-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic 5a </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1010561','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1010561">The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic Framework for the Department of Defense</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 2016-03-23 Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security (Alexandria, VA: The Institute for Defense Analyses, 2009), 3. 3 in...Security Needs Assessment, (New York: United Nations, 2012), 7. 50 Christine Youngblut, Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National...Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 10-01-2015 - 03-19-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic 5a </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4507245','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4507245">Dynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Laneri, Karina; Paul, Richard E.; Tall, Adama; Faye, Joseph; Diene-Sarr, Fatoumata; Sokhna, Cheikh; Trape, Jean-François; Rodó, Xavier 2015-01-01 Assessing the influence of climate on the incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. This is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. In sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. However, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. To disentangle these differences among high- and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in Senegal followed for two decades, recording daily P. falciparum cases. As both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. Transmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. A stochastic nonlinear human–mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. We found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. Our models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity. PMID:26124134 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ERL.....5a5007G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ERL.....5a5007G">EDITORIAL: Siberia Integrated Regional Study: multidisciplinary investigations of the dynamic relationship between the Siberian environment and global climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gordov, E. P.; Vaganov, E. A. 2010-03-01 This is an editorial overview of the Siberia Integrated Regional Study (SIRS), which is a large-scale investigation of ongoing and future environmental change in Siberia and its relationship to global processes, approaches, existing challenges and future direction. Introduction The SIRS is a mega-project within the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which coordinates interdisciplinary, national and international activities in Northern Eurasia that follow the Earth System Science Program (ESSP) approach. Under the direction of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), SIRS is one of the Integrated Regional Studies (IRS) that aims to investigate environmental change in Siberia under the current environment of global change, and the potential impact on Earth system dynamics [1]. The regions of interest are those that may function as 'choke or switch points' for the global Earth system, where changes in regional biophysical, biogeochemical and anthropogenic components may have significant consequences for the Earth system at the global scale. Siberia is a large and significant region that may compel change [2]. Regional consequences of global warming (e.g. anomalous increases in cold season temperatures) have already been documented for Siberia [3]. This result is also supported by climate modeling results for the 20th-22nd centuries [4]. Future climatic change threatens Siberia with the shift of permafrost boundaries northward, dramatic changes in land cover (redistribution among boreal forest, wetlands, tundra, and steppe zones often precipitated by fire regime change) and the entire hydrological regime of the territory [5-8]. These processes feed back to and influence climate dynamics through the exchange of energy, water, greenhouse gases and aerosols [9]. Even though there have been a handful of national and international projects focused on the Siberian environment, scientists have minimal knowledge about the processes that control change in this understudied region, particularly those concerning the primary components that influence regional climate (i.e. cloud cover, precipitation) and responses and feedbacks to and from terrestrial and aquatic systems. This provides a strong impetus for the SIRS project. SIRS was initiated at a boreal forest conference in Krasnoyarsk in 2002 under the auspices of the IGBP and ESSP regional strategy by Will Steffen (IGBP) and the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS). Russian and foreign scientific activities continued under the Siberian Center for Environmental Research and Training (SCERT) in 2003. In 2005, the Siberian Branch of the Russian National Committee (SB RNC) for IGBP endorsed these activities and recommended investigations focus on four major themes: quantification of the terrestrial biota full greenhouse gas budget, with a focus on the exchange between biota and atmosphere; monitoring and modeling of regional climate change impacts; development of SIRS informational-computational infrastructure; and development of a regional strategy of adaptation to and mitigation of the negative consequences of global change. SIRS development [10, 11] supports Siberian Earth science investigations funded by the RAS Foundation for Basic Research, the European Commission (EC), the International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). SB RNC is responsible for SIRS advances, and SCERT hosts the Committee office and houses major SIRS informational-computational infrastructure development. NEESPI (www.neespi.org/) serves as an IGBP and World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) external project, and as a NEESPI mega-project, SIRS has organized distribution centers in Krasnoyarsk and Tomsk to support NEESPI activity, and has coordinated training and educational activity aimed at young scientists. SIRS approaches and outcomes Organizational activity The 'Siberian Geosphere-Biosphere Program: integrated regional study of contemporary natural and climatic changes' is one of several funded interdisciplinary projects, and it serves to unite regional studies from 14 RAS and SB RAS institutes and 5 universities. In the course of this and similar national1 and international projects, ENVIROMIS and ENVIROMIS-2 (Environmental Observations, Modelling and Information Systems) was formed, which is the SIRS professional community comprising regional, national and international specialists dealing with Siberian environmental dynamics studies. Results of those and parallel projects were analyzed in by coordinated activities: 'Enviro-RISKS-Man-induced Environmental Risks: monitoring, management and remediation of man-made changes in Siberia' [12]. Currently, a new set of SB RAS integrated2 and international projects within the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Study (APN) and ISTC are under way. While a number of projects have been initiated and clustered under the SIRS umbrella and their results and data are distributed through the SIRS web portal (http://sirs.scert.ru/), the organizational SIRS infrastructure is inadequate. SIRS has neither SB RAS stable funding nor a dedicated Project Office. Both obstacles are a major concern for the SIRS governing body. Information-computational infrastructure development The SIRS informational-computational infrastructure, which is currently under extensive development, is designed to stimulate national and international cooperative Earth science investigations, easily exchange data and knowledge, coordinate activities, and optimize the usage of resources, services and applications [13]. The infrastructure is organized as a set of thematic, bilingual (Russian and English), internet-accessible informational-computational systems, the first of which is the scientific web portal ATMOS (http://atmos.iao.ru/). ATMOS is an integrated set of distributed topical websites, combining standard multimedia information with research databases, models and analytical tools for on-line use and visualization, designed primarily for atmospheric physics and chemistry (http://risks.scert.ru/)3 [12, 14]. These powerful tools have already promoted understanding of the interactions between Siberian ecosystems, the atmosphere and human dynamics, under the impact of global climate change. For example, the climate site of the Enviro-RISKS portal (http://climate.risks.scert.ru/) processes unique data sets, from monitoring and modeling regional meteorology, atmospheric pollution transformation/transport and climate, all of which are significant for dynamic regional assessments. This is a user-friendly, interactive web system that can be used for regional climate change assessment and visualization based upon standard meteorological data. All major reanalysis and climatic characteristics are provided (surface air temperature, pressure, humidity, precipitation, soil moisture, and geopotential height), and the users can (but do not need to) access the data files directly but freely receive the results of their analyses through the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS; www.iges.org/grads/) or Interactive Data Language (IDL; www.ittvis.com/idl/). Specific spatial and temporal domains can be selected, as well as a wide range of statistical analyses, data manipulations, and visualization tools (including animation) that may be required for global, continental, and regional climate change assessments. The SIRS infrastructure has become an indispensable tool, providing researchers with an open platform (portal plus tools) that may be used, adapted, enriched or altered on the basis of the specific scientific applications in regions of Siberia, the Russian Federation, and the northern exatropics. SIRS capacity building/young scientists' education/training The SIRS educational capacity building programme includes ENVIROMIS biannual Multidisciplinary Conference, CITES (Computational and Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences) biannual Young Scientists' School (YSS) and international conferences [15]. These include lecture courses for young scientists, training sessions, invited lectures and thematic workshops (www.scert.ru/en/conferences/). The first event was organized in 2000, and thereafter each year 50-70 young scientists from Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States participate in CITES and ENVIROMIS conferences. These events are organized to support multidisciplinary education, contain no parallel sessions, are composed of about 50% students, and all presentations are posted to assist future professional activity. In the first years, these activities were supported internationally (INTAS, the EC International Cooperation Program within FP5 and FP6); however, recent activities have been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, the RF Ministry of Education and Science and the SB RAS. Some results gained in the course of SIRS projects being carried out, and current challenges While some findings on regional climate dynamics were reported in the EGU 2009 NEESPI session and in manuscripts listed on the NEESPI website (www.neespi.org/science/NEESPI_publications.pdf), a majority of them have been published in Russian journals and are still unknown in the international climatic community. However, additional reports can be found in the Enviro-RISKS final scientific report [16], mainly in the third volume devoted to climate change, terrestrial ecosystems and hydrology (www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-3.pdf). We have already established that temperatures have increased, particularly in the winter in Eastern Siberia (0.5°/decade), and the number of frost days (~1 day yr-1) and growing season length has also increased (~1 day yr-1) [17, 18]. Even more troubling is the potential for these transient phenomena to manifest themselves as nonlinear reactions to ongoing climatic change [19]. There are three main scientific research challenges to the SIRS community, which are also very important from a regional socio-economic point of view and for the global carbon cycle. Permafrost fate, especially its border shift, seriously threatens infrastructure and might form a significant carbon and methane source to the atmosphere. Climate-related drying would alter biogenic emissions in peatlands that have been deposited over millennia and would increase the potential for peat fires which cannot be extinguished. Temperature/precipitation/hydrology regime change, which might increase risks of forest and peat fires, thus changing significantly the carbon, terrestrial and hydrologic cycle of the region. Desert-steppe-forest-tundra ecosystem borders northward shifts, which will also change regional input into the global carbon and radiation balance and give rise to serious socio-economical consequences for local populations (i.e. alter potential agricultural lands). New in situ instrumentation, data sets, models and research are required to address these challenges. The SB RAS has adopted a long-term integrated project 'Development of the basic network for monitoring of natural and climatic processes in Siberia' to establish a network of dedicated sites and stations equipped with modern instrumentation to monitor environmental changes in the region. One example is the Zotino tall tower observatory (ZOTTO) launched a few years ago (www.sfu-kras.ru/science/achievement/zotto/public) [20]. It is anticipated that together with ZOTTO, the future SB RAS network will serve as an important source of reliable environmental data for analyses. Another important SIRS objective is the development of a high-resolution regional climate model that properly takes into account specifics of this region (e.g., presence of permafrost, interaction of the biosphere and terrestrial hydrology, etc). Development of an integrated model was recently discussed at the NEESPI Workshop (www.scert.ru/en/conferences/cites2009/) by leading SIRS specialists and their German and US partners. Conclusions Devoted to regional-global linkages, understanding, monitoring and assessment of global change impacts on a regional level, SIRS targets provide substantiated recommendations for regional decision makers to understand and work towards mitigating the negative effects of climate change for Siberia and its population. This approach will allow the Siberian Branch of the Russian National Committee for IGBP to perform its mission, ensuring the growth of scientific knowledge of the dynamic Siberian environment and its subsystems, and to develop a solid basis for mitigation and adaptation strategies for the negative consequences of global change. 1 For example, 'Complex monitoring of the Great Vasyugan Bog: modern state and development processes investigations' and 'Ecological problems of Siberian cities'. 2 For example, 'Models of biosphere change based on the boreal ecosystems' carbon balance using field and satellite data observations' and 'Information technologies, mathematical models and methods for monitoring and control of ecosystems intended for stationary, mobile and remote observations'. 3 'Environmental observations, modeling and information systems' (http://enviromis.scert.ru/) and 'Man-induced environmental risks: monitoring, management and mitigation of man-made changes in Siberia (Enviro-RISKS)'. References [1] Brasseur G 2003 IGBP Newsletter No 50 (June 2002) IGBP II - Special Edition Issue 3rd IGBP Congress Overview Global Change Newsletter No 55 pp 2-4 [2] 2005 Bulletin of the Russian National Committee for the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme 4 [3] Ippolitov I I, Kabanov M V, Komarov A I and Kuskov A I 2004 Patterns of modern natural-climatic changes in Siberia: observed changes of annual temperature and pressure Geogr. Nat. Resources 3 90-6 [4] Volodin E M and Dianskii N A 2003 Response of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to increased carbon dioxide Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 239 170-86 [5] Groisman P Y et al 2009 The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: an example of science applied to societal needs Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90 671-88 [6] Shiklomanov and Lammers R L 2009 Record Russian river discharge in 2007 and the limits of analysis Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045015 [7] Tchebakova N M, Parfenova E and Soja A J 2009 The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045013 [8] Soja A et al 2007 Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations Global Planet. Change 56 274-96 [9] Groisman P Y and Bartalev S V 2007 Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI): science plan overview Global Planet. Change 56 215-34 [10] Gordov E P and Begni G 2005 Siberia integrated regional study development Comput. Technol. 10 149-55 [11] Gordov E P, Begni G, Heiman M, Kabanov M V, Lykossov V N, Shvidenko A Z and Vaganov E A 2006 Siberia integrated regional study as a basis for international scientific cooperation Comput. Technol. 11 16-28 [12] Baklanov A and Gordov E P 2006 Man-induced environmental risks: monitoring, management and remediation of man-made changes in Siberia Comput. Technol. 11 162-71 [13] Gordov E P 2004 Computational and information technologies for environmental sciences Comput. Technol. 9 3-10 Gordov E P 2004 Modern tendencies in regional environmental studies Geogr. Nat. Resources. (special issue) 11-18 Akhlyostin A Yu and Fazliev A Z 2003 Software for presentation of scientific information in the framework of a WEB portal Proc. SPIE 5396 111-8 Gordov E P, De Rudder A, Lykosov V N, Fazliev A Z and Fedra K 2004 Web-portal ATMOS as basis for integrated investigations of Siberia environment Comput. Technol. 9 3-13 Gordov E P, Lykosov V N and Fazliev A Z 2006 Web portal on environmental sciences 'ATMOS' Adv. Geosci. 8 33-8 Okladnikov I G and Titov A G 2006 Web-system for processing and visualization of meteorological data Environmental Observations, Modeling and Information Systems ed E P Gordov (Tomsk: Tomsk CSTI) 42 pp Gordov E P, Okladnikov I G and Titov A G 2007 Development of elements of a web-based information-computational system for studies of regional environment processes Comput. Technol. 12 20-8 Okladnikov I G, Titov A G, Melnikova V N and Shulgina T M 2008 Web-system for processing and visualization of meteorological and climatic data Comput. Technol. 13 64-9 Titov A G, Gordov E P, Okladnikov I G and Shulgina N M 2009 Web-system for processing and visualization of meteorological data for Siberian environment research International J. Digital Earth 2 105-19 Gordov E P and Lykossov V N 2007 Development of information-computational infrastructure for integrated study of Siberia environment Comput. Technol. 12 19-30 [14] Shokin Y I and Fedotov A M 2003 Integration of informational and telecommunicational resources of Siberian Branch of RAS Comput. Technol. 8 161-71 [15] Gordov E P, Kabanov M V and Lykossov V N 2006 Information-computational technologies for environmental science: young scientists training Comput. Technol. 11 3-15 Gordov E P and Lykossov V N 2008 ICT for environmental sciences: synthesis of science and education Comput. Technol. 13 3-11 [16] Baklanov A A and Gordov E P (eds) 2008 Enviro-RISKS: man-induced environmental risks: monitoring, management and remediation of man-made changes in Siberia. Final Scientific Report of EC 6FP CA Enviro-RISKS Project DMI Scientific Report 08-05 Copenhagen (ISBN: 978-87-7478-571-2) Four volumes available at www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-1.pdf, www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-052.pdf, www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-3.pdf and www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr08-05-4.pdf [17] Kobysheva N V (ed) 2001 Klimat Rossii (St Petersburg: Gidrometizdat) p 665 [18] Ippolitov I I, Kabanov M V and Loginov S V 2007 Spatiotemporal scales of warming observed in Siberia Reports of the Russian Academy of Sciences/Earth Science Section 413 248-51 [19] Shulgina T M, Genina E Yu, Gordov E P and Nikitchuk K 2009 Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the reanalysis and in-situ observed data Geophys. Res. Abs. 11 EGU2009-880 [20] Kozlova E A, Manning A C, Kisilyakhov Y, Seifert T and Heimann M 2008 Seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal-scale variability of biogeochemical trace gases and O2 from a 300-m tall tower in central Siberia Global Biogeochem. Cycles 22 GB4020 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52705','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52705">Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Matthew W. Warren; Steve Frolking; Zhaohua Dai; Sofyan Kurnianto 2016-01-01 The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1612988G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1612988G">The Earth System (ES-DOC) Project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Greenslade, Mark; Murphy, Sylvia; Treshansky, Allyn; DeLuca, Cecilia; Guilyardi, Eric; Denvil, Sebastien 2014-05-01 ESSI1.3 New Paradigms, Modelling, and International Collaboration Strategies for Earth System Sciences Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) is an international project supplying tools & services in support of earth system documentation creation, analysis and dissemination. It is nurturing a sustainable standards based documentation eco-system that aims to become an integral part of the next generation of exa-scale dataset archives. ES-DOC leverages open source software and places end-user narratives at the heart of all it does. ES-DOC has initially focused upon nurturing the Earth System Model (ESM) documentation eco-system. Within this context ES-DOC leverages emerging documentation standards and supports the following projects: Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5); Dynamical Core Model Inter-comparison Project (DCMIP); National Climate Predictions and Projections Platforms Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling Workshop. This presentation will introduce the project to a wider audience and demonstrate the range of tools and services currently available for use. It will also demonstrate how international collaborative efforts are essential to the success of ES-DOC. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815860L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815860L">Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver 2016-04-01 Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential events dating back several decades is analysed. Precipitation thresholds varying in space and time are established using highly resolved INCA data of the Austrian weather service. Parameters possibly controlling the basic susceptibility of catchments are evaluated in a regional GIS analysis (vegetation, geology, topography, stream network, proxies for sediment availability). Similarity measures are then used to group catchments into sensitivity classes. Applying different climate scenarios, the spatiotemporal distribution of catchments sensitive towards heavier and more frequent precipitation can be determined giving valuable advice for planning and managing mountain protection zones. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25494955','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25494955">A climate-compatible approach to development practice by international humanitarian NGOs.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Clarke, Matthew; de Cruz, Ian 2015-01-01 If current climate-change predictions prove accurate, non-linear change, including potentially catastrophic change, is possible and the environments in which international humanitarian NGOs operate will change figuratively and literally. This paper proposes that a new approach to development is required that takes changing climate into account. This 'climate-compatible approach' to development is a bleak shift from some of the current orthodox positions and will be a major challenge to international humanitarian NGOs working with the most vulnerable. However, it is necessary to address the challenges and context such NGOs face, and the need to be resilient and adaptive to these changes. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712694B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712694B">Climatic water balance and agricultural productivity dynamics in Dobrogea, southeastern Romania, against the background of climate change over the past decades</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bandoc, Georgeta; Pravalie, Remus 2015-04-01 Interdisciplinary analyses of the relationship between climate system dynamics and agricultural system variation are an essential component for increasing the efficiency of water resource management, and for adapting crops at local level. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the climate water balance (CWB) in the past five decades in Romania's most arid region, Dobrogea, against the background of climate change, as well as the statistical relationship between the variation of CWB values and that of regional agricultural systems. Thus, a first stage consisted in detailed climatic analyses of CWB value variation between 1961 and 2009, based on climatic data provided by 9 regional weather stations. The study mainly focused on CWB trends (mm) recorded annually and seasonally (winter, spring, summer and autumn), using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method, as well as GIS methods in order to visualize the results. The second main stage was directed towards the analysis of the statistical relationship between the aforementioned climate indicator's dynamics and agricultural yields (t / ha / year) in the administrative-territorial units overlapping Dobrogea (generally the plateau region), while corn was considered for the case study as it is one of the region's main crops. In this instance, the agro-climatic data were analyzed / statistically correlated in the 1990-2003 period (depending on data availability for corn production output at administrative unit level), based on Thiessen-Voronoi polygons which were considered to be compact spatial units in which both data categories can be grouped in order to establish interannual relationships. In terms of climate, the results indicated an annual increase of the climatic water deficit at the stations located in the northern region of the study area, with maximum rates of -3.2 mm / year. In contrast, CWB values decreased seasonally (the climatic water deficit increased) roughly throughout Dobrogea (winter, spring and summer, with maximum negative rates of -1.4 mm / year in the warmest season), except for autumn, characterized by general increasing rates, with maximum values in the southwest (2.3 mm / year). However, a general trend overview indicated an overall lack of statistical significance. Considering the 1990-2003 time interval, the data analysis in the Thiessen polygons showed an overall similarity of agro-climatic oscillations, a first assessment of which indicated a general correlation between climate and agricultural data. However, upon analysis of the data series normality criterion, it was found that, during the 14 years, the CWB index variation influenced the dynamics of corn yields especially in the south-central region, in certain cases by up to 50%, causing losses of up to 11 kg / ha / year when the deficit increased by 1 mm. Therefore, while climatic results indicated CWB summer decreases (the most important season in corn productivity dynamics) in the northern region as well, the asymmetries found in agro-climatic data distributions in the northern region did not allow a statistical assessment of the dependence of agriculture on climatic conditions. Hence, for the northern region of the study area, the results indicate the role of additional factors in the dynamics of agricultural systems, which can be both natural (soil and groundwater characteristics) and anthropogenic (management conditions). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27614088','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27614088">Stability in a changing world - palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Olivares, Ingrid; Svenning, Jens-Christian; van Bodegom, Peter M; Valencia, Renato; Balslev, Henrik 2017-03-01 Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4928808','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4928808">Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon 2016-01-01 Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. PMID:27362499 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27362499','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27362499">Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon 2016-01-01 Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7d5601G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7d5601G">Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Gibb, Christine; Ford, James 2012-12-01 Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/44778','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/44778">Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill 2013-01-01 An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35005','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35005">Dynamic phenotypic plasticity in photosynthesis and biomass patterns in Douglas-fir seedlings</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> A. C. Koehn; G. I. McDonald; D. L. Turner; D. L. Adams 2010-01-01 As climate changes, understanding the mechanisms long-lived conifers use to adapt becomes more important. Light gradients within a forest stand vary constantly with the changes in climate, and the minimum light required for survival plays a major role in plant community dynamics. This study focuses on the dynamic plasticity of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var.... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70144439','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70144439">Impacts of climate change on the formation and stability of late Quaternary sand sheets and falling dunes, Black Mesa region, southern Colorado Plateau, USA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Ellwein, Amy L.; Mahan, Shannon; McFadden, Leslie D. 2015-01-01 Widely used predictive models of eolian system dynamics are typically based entirely on climatic variables and do not account for landscape complexity and geomorphic history. Climate-only assumptions fail to give accurate predictions of the dynamics of this and many other dune fields. A growing body of work suggests that eolian deposits in wind-driven semiarid climates may be more strongly related to increases in sediment supply than to increases in aridity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42613','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42613">Carbon dynamics of forest in Washington, USA: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie 2012-01-01 During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840027173','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19840027173">Cloud and ice in the planetary scale circulation and in climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Herman, G. F.; Houghton, D. D.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Suomi, V. E. 1984-01-01 The roles of the cryosphere, and of cloud-radiative interactions are investigated. The effects clouds and ice have in the climate system are examined. The cloud radiation research attempts explain the modes of interaction (feedback) between raditive transfer, cloud formation, and atmospheric dynamics. The role of sea ice in weather and climate is also discussed. Models are used to describe the ice and atmospheric dynamics under study. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39331','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39331">Understanding the role of wildland fire, insects, and disease in predicting climate change effects on whitebark pine: Simulating vegetation, disturbance, and climate dynamics in a northern Rocky Mountain landscape</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Robert Keane; Rachel Loehman 2010-01-01 Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24570617','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24570617">Factorial validity and internal consistency of the motivational climate in physical education scale.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Watt, Anthony; Yli-Piipari, Sami; Jaakkola, Timo 2014-01-01 The aim of the study was to examine the construct validity and internal consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale (MCPES). A key element of the development process of the scale was establishing a theoretical framework that integrated the dimensions of task- and ego involving climates in conjunction with autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. A sample of Finnish Grade 9 students, comprising 2,594 girls and 1,803 boys, completed the 18-item MCPES during one physical education class. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate and ego-involving climate. Additionally, autonomy, social relatedness, and task- involving climates were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego- involving climate had low or negligible correlations with the other climate dimensions.The construct validity of the MCPES was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. The statistical fit of the four-factor model consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. The results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale can be considered as psychometrically valid tool to measure motivational climate in Finnish Grade 9 students. Key PointsThis study developed Motivational Climate in School Physical Education Scale (MCPES). During the development process of the scale, the theoretical framework using dimensions of task- and ego involving as well as autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates was constructed. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories.The statistical fit of the four-factor model of the MCPES consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. Additionally, the results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions.The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate.Autonomy, social relatedness, and task climate were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego climate factor had low or negligible correlations with the other three factors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3918549','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3918549">Factorial Validity and Internal Consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo; Watt, Anthony; Yli-Piipari, Sami; Jaakkola, Timo 2014-01-01 The aim of the study was to examine the construct validity and internal consistency of the Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale (MCPES). A key element of the development process of the scale was establishing a theoretical framework that integrated the dimensions of task- and ego involving climates in conjunction with autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. A sample of Finnish Grade 9 students, comprising 2,594 girls and 1,803 boys, completed the 18-item MCPES during one physical education class. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate and ego-involving climate. Additionally, autonomy, social relatedness, and task- involving climates were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego- involving climate had low or negligible correlations with the other climate dimensions.The construct validity of the MCPES was analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis. The statistical fit of the four-factor model consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. The results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The Motivational Climate in Physical Education Scale can be considered as psychometrically valid tool to measure motivational climate in Finnish Grade 9 students. Key Points This study developed Motivational Climate in School Physical Education Scale (MCPES). During the development process of the scale, the theoretical framework using dimensions of task- and ego involving as well as autonomy, and social relatedness supporting climates was constructed. These constructs were adopted from the self-determination and achievement goal theories. The statistical fit of the four-factor model of the MCPES consisting of motivational climate factors supporting perceived autonomy, social relatedness, task-involvement, and ego-involvement was satisfactory. Additionally, the results of the reliability analysis showed acceptable internal consistencies for all four dimensions. The results of the study demonstrated that participants had highest mean in task-involving climate and the lowest in autonomy climate. Autonomy, social relatedness, and task climate were significantly and strongly correlated with each other, whereas the ego climate factor had low or negligible correlations with the other three factors. PMID:24570617 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GMD....10.3359K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GMD....10.3359K">The Sectional Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosol module (S3A-v1) within the LMDZ general circulation model: description and evaluation against stratospheric aerosol observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kleinschmitt, Christoph; Boucher, Olivier; Bekki, Slimane; Lott, François; Platt, Ulrich 2017-09-01 Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the climate system by affecting the Earth's radiative budget as well as atmospheric chemistry, and the capabilities to simulate them interactively within global models are continuously improving. It is important to represent accurately both aerosol microphysical and atmospheric dynamical processes because together they affect the size distribution and the residence time of the aerosol particles in the stratosphere. The newly developed LMDZ-S3A model presented in this article uses a sectional approach for sulfate particles in the stratosphere and includes the relevant microphysical processes. It allows full interaction between aerosol radiative effects (e.g. radiative heating) and atmospheric dynamics, including e.g. an internally generated quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the stratosphere. Sulfur chemistry is semi-prescribed via climatological lifetimes. LMDZ-S3A reasonably reproduces aerosol observations in periods of low (background) and high (volcanic) stratospheric sulfate loading, but tends to overestimate the number of small particles and to underestimate the number of large particles. Thus, it may serve as a tool to study the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions, as well as the deliberate anthropogenic injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014Ge%26Ae..54..903V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014Ge%26Ae..54..903V">Global correlation between surface heat fluxes and insolation in the 11-year solar cycle: The latitudinal effect</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Volobuev, D. M.; Makarenko, N. G. 2014-12-01 Because of the small amplitude of insolation variations (1365.2-1366.6 W m-2 or 0.1%) from the 11-year solar cycle minimum to the cycle maximum and the structural complexity of the climatic dynamics, it is difficult to directly observe a solar signal in the surface temperature. The main difficulty is reduced to two factors: (1) a delay in the temperature response to external action due to thermal inertia, and (2) powerful internal fluctuations of the climatic dynamics suppressing the solar-driven component. In this work we take into account the first factor, solving the inverse problem of thermal conductivity in order to calculate the vertical heat flux from the measured temperature near the Earth's surface. The main model parameter—apparent thermal inertia—is calculated from the local seasonal extremums of temperature and albedo. We level the second factor by averaging mean annual heat fluxes in a latitudinal belt. The obtained mean heat fluxes significantly correlate with a difference between the insolation and optical depth of volcanic aerosol in the atmosphere, converted into a hindered heat flux. The calculated correlation smoothly increases with increasing latitude to 0.4-0.6, and the revealed latitudinal dependence is explained by the known effect of polar amplification. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70156754','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70156754">The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M. 2008-01-01 Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=equations+AND+differential&pg=4&id=EJ1017691','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=equations+AND+differential&pg=4&id=EJ1017691">Modeling Climate Dynamically</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Walsh, Jim; McGehee, Richard 2013-01-01 A dynamical systems approach to energy balance models of climate is presented, focusing on low order, or conceptual, models. Included are global average and latitude-dependent, surface temperature models. The development and analysis of the differential equations and corresponding bifurcation diagrams provides a host of appropriate material for… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov','SCIGOVWS'); return false;" href="http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov">Climate Prediction Center</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.science.gov/aboutsearch.html">Science.gov Websites</a> Climate Stratosphere Pacific Islands International Desks Climate.gov Climate Test Bed (CTB) JAWF USAID FEWS-NET NWS / NCEP Aviation Weather Center Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center non-operational server hosts the redesigned web pages developed, thus far, as part of the Climate </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.P42A..04C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.P42A..04C">Climate Dynamics and Hysteresis at Low and High Obliquity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Colose, C.; Del Genio, A. D.; Way, M. 2017-12-01 We explore the large-scale climate dynamics at low and high obliquity for an Earth-like planet using the ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) 3-D General Circulation model being developed at NASA GISS as part of the Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) initiative. We highlight the role of ocean heat storage and transport in determining the seasonal cycle at high obliquity, and describe the large-scale circulation and resulting regional climate patterns using both aquaplanet and Earth topographical boundary conditions. Finally, we contrast the hysteresis structure to varying CO2 concentration for a low and high obliquity planet near the outer edge of the habitable zone. We discuss the prospects for habitability for a high obliquity planet susceptible to global glaciation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNG32A..08K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNG32A..08K">The importance of stochasticity and internal variability in geomorphic erosion system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kim, J.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Fatichi, S. 2016-12-01 Understanding soil erosion is essential for a range of studies but the predictive skill of prognostic models and reliability of national-scale assessments have been repeatedly questioned. Indeed, data from multiple environments indicate that fluvial soil loss is highly non-unique and its frequency distributions exhibit heavy tails. We reveal that these features are attributed to the high sensitivity of erosion response to micro-scale variations of soil erodibility - `geomorphic internal variability'. The latter acts as an intermediary between forcing and erosion dynamics, augmenting the conventionally emphasized effects of `external variability' (climate, topography, land use, management form). Furthermore, we observe a reduction of erosion non-uniqueness at larger temporal scales that correlates with environment stochasticity. Our analysis shows that this effect can be attributed to the larger likelihood of alternating characteristic regimes of sediment dynamics. The corollary of this study is that the glaring gap - the inherently large uncertainties and the fallacy of representativeness of central tendencies - must be conceded in soil loss assessments. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B083066-03) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government, and by the faculty research fund of Sejong University in 2016. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712180B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1712180B">New challenges of the ARISE project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Blanc, Elisabeth 2015-04-01 It has been robustly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate throughout the troposphere all the way to the Earth's surface. A key part of the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary-scale Rossby waves and gravity waves. Limited observation of the middle atmosphere and these waves in particular limits the ability to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The ARISE project combines for the first time international networks with complementary technologies such as infrasound, lidar and airglow. This joint network provided advanced data products that started to be used as benchmarks for weather forecast models. The ARISE network also allows enhanced and detailed monitoring of other extreme events in the Earth system such as erupting volcanoes, magnetic storms, tornadoes and tropical thunderstorms. In order to improve the ability of the network to monitor atmospheric dynamics, ARISE proposes to extend i) the existing network coverage in Africa and the high latitudes, ii) the altitude range in the stratosphere and mesosphere, iii) the observation duration using routine observation modes, and to use complementary existing infrastructures and innovative instrumentations. Data will be collected over the long term to improve weather forecasting to monthly or seasonal timescales, to monitor atmospheric extreme events and climate change. ARISE focuses on the link between models and observations for future assimilation of data by operational weather forecasting models. Among the applications, ARISE2 proposes infrasound remote volcano monitoring to provide notifications to civil aviation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4391794','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4391794">Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F.; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen 2015-01-01 A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation. Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [1] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system. Three types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed. PMID:25856374 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25856374','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25856374">Local difference measures between complex networks for dynamical system model evaluation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen 2015-01-01 A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation.Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [8] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system [corrected]. types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node-weighted graphs are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12..103S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12..103S">Effect of global climate on termites population. Effect of termites population on global climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sapunov, Valentin 2010-05-01 The global climate is under control of factors having both earth and space origin. Global warming took place from XVII century till 1997. Then global cold snap began. This dynamics had effect on global distribution of some animals including termites. Direct human effect on climate is not significant. At the same time man plays role of trigger switching on significant biosphere processes controlling climate. The transformation of marginal lands, development of industry and building, stimulated increase of termite niche and population. Termite role in green house gases production increases too. It may have regular effect on world climate. The dry wood is substrate for metabolism of termites living under symbiosis with bacteria Hypermastigina (Flagellata). The use of dry wood by humanity increased from 18 *108 ton in XVIII to 9*109 to the middle of XX century. Then use of wood decreased because of a new technology development. Hence termite population is controlled by microevolution depending on dry wood and climate dynamics. Producing by them green house gases had reciprocal effect on world climate. It is possible to describe and predict dynamic of termite population using methods of mathematical ecology and analogs with other well studied insects (Colorado potatoes beetle, Chrisomelid beetle Zygogramma and so on). Reclamation of new ecological niche for such insects as termites needs 70 - 75 years. That is delay of population dynamics in relation to dynamics of dry wood production. General principles of population growth were described by G.Gause (1934) and some authors of the end of XX century. This works and analogs with other insects suggest model of termite distribution during XXI century. The extremum of population and its green house gases production would be gotten during 8 - 10 years. Then the number of specimens and sum biological mass would be stabilized and decreased. Termite gas production is not priority for climate regulation, but it has importance as fine regulator of global temperature and climate stability. Key words: termites, green house gases, mathematical modeling. Union symposia Biogeoscience BG2.1 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26919189','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26919189">Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica 2016-10-01 Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...78K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...78K">Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K. 2012-04-01 Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28544252','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28544252">Soil organic carbon dynamics jointly controlled by climate, carbon inputs, soil properties and soil carbon fractions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Luo, Zhongkui; Feng, Wenting; Luo, Yiqi; Baldock, Jeff; Wang, Enli 2017-10-01 Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics are regulated by the complex interplay of climatic, edaphic and biotic conditions. However, the interrelation of SOC and these drivers and their potential connection networks are rarely assessed quantitatively. Using observations of SOC dynamics with detailed soil properties from 90 field trials at 28 sites under different agroecosystems across the Australian cropping regions, we investigated the direct and indirect effects of climate, soil properties, carbon (C) inputs and soil C pools (a total of 17 variables) on SOC change rate (r C , Mg C ha -1 yr -1 ). Among these variables, we found that the most influential variables on r C were the average C input amount and annual precipitation, and the total SOC stock at the beginning of the trials. Overall, C inputs (including C input amount and pasture frequency in the crop rotation system) accounted for 27% of the relative influence on r C , followed by climate 25% (including precipitation and temperature), soil C pools 24% (including pool size and composition) and soil properties (such as cation exchange capacity, clay content, bulk density) 24%. Path analysis identified a network of intercorrelations of climate, soil properties, C inputs and soil C pools in determining r C . The direct correlation of r C with climate was significantly weakened if removing the effects of soil properties and C pools, and vice versa. These results reveal the relative importance of climate, soil properties, C inputs and C pools and their complex interconnections in regulating SOC dynamics. Ignorance of the impact of changes in soil properties, C pool composition and C input (quantity and quality) on SOC dynamics is likely one of the main sources of uncertainty in SOC predictions from the process-based SOC models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157143','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157143">Evaluating CO2 and CH4 dynamics of Alaskan ecosystems during the Holocene Thermal Maximum</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> He, Yujie; Jones, Miriam C.; Zhuang, Qianlai; Bochicchio, Christopher; Felzer, B. S.; Mason, Erik; Yu, Zicheng 2014-01-01 The Arctic has experienced much greater warming than the global average in recent decades due to polar amplification. Warming has induced ecological changes that have impacted climate carbon-cycle feedbacks, making it important to understand the climate and vegetation controls on carbon (C) dynamics. Here we used the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM, 11–9 ka BP, 1 ka BP = 1000 cal yr before present) in Alaska as a case study to examine how ecosystem Cdynamics responded to the past warming climate using an integrated approach of combining paleoecological reconstructions and ecosystem modeling. Our paleoecological synthesis showed expansion of deciduous broadleaf forest (dominated by Populus) into tundra and the establishment of boreal evergreen needleleaf and mixed forest during the second half of the HTM under a warmer- and wetter-than-before climate, coincident with the occurrence of the highest net primary productivity, cumulative net ecosystem productivity, soil C accumulation and CH4 emissions. These series of ecological and biogeochemical shifts mirrored the solar insolation and subsequent temperature and precipitation patterns during HTM, indicating the importance of climate controls on C dynamics. Our simulated regional estimate of CH4 emission rates from Alaska during the HTM ranged from 3.5 to 6.4 Tg CH4 yr−1 and highest annual NPP of 470 Tg C yr−1, significantly higher than previously reported modern estimates. Our results show that the differences in static vegetation distribution maps used in simulations of different time slices have greater influence on modeled C dynamics than climatic fields within each time slice, highlighting the importance of incorporating vegetation community dynamics and their responses to climatic conditions in long-term biogeochemical modeling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010IJBm...54..517M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010IJBm...54..517M">Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C. 2010-09-01 Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910062283&hterms=nonlinear+dynamics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dnonlinear%2Bdynamics','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910062283&hterms=nonlinear+dynamics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dnonlinear%2Bdynamics">Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D. 1991-01-01 Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A31K..03O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A31K..03O">Climate Projections from the NARCliM Project: Bayesian Model Averaging of Maximum Temperature Projections</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Olson, R.; Evans, J. P.; Fan, Y. 2015-12-01 NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project) is a regional climate project for Australia and the surrounding region. It dynamically downscales 4 General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to provide climate projections for the CORDEX-AustralAsia region at 50 km resolution, and for south-east Australia at 10 km resolution. The project differs from previous work in the level of sophistication of model selection. Specifically, the selection process for GCMs included (i) conducting literature review to evaluate model performance, (ii) analysing model independence, and (iii) selecting models that span future temperature and precipitation change space. RCMs for downscaling the GCMs were chosen based on their performance for several precipitation events over South-East Australia, and on model independence.Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a statistically consistent framework for weighing the models based on their likelihood given the available observations. These weights are used to provide probability distribution functions (pdfs) for model projections. We develop a BMA framework for constructing probabilistic climate projections for spatially-averaged variables from the NARCliM project. The first step in the procedure is smoothing model output in order to exclude the influence of internal climate variability. Our statistical model for model-observations residuals is a homoskedastic iid process. Comparing RCMs with Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) observations is used to determine model weights through Monte Carlo integration. Posterior pdfs of statistical parameters of model-data residuals are obtained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The uncertainty in the properties of the model-data residuals is fully accounted for when constructing the projections. We present the preliminary results of the BMA analysis for yearly maximum temperature for New South Wales state planning regions for the period 2060-2079. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29170567','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29170567">Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J 2018-01-01 Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27743309','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27743309">Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Garnier, Jimmy; Lewis, Mark A 2016-11-01 Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically, the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMGC51A0430Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMGC51A0430Z">Agent-based Model for the Coupled Human-Climate System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zvoleff, A.; Werner, B. 2006-12-01 Integrated assessment models have been used to predict the outcome of coupled economic growth, resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, both for scientific and policy purposes. These models generally have employed significant simplifications that suppress nonlinearities and the possibility of multiple equilibria in both their economic (DeCanio, 2005) and climate (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002) components. As one step toward exploring general features of the nonlinear dynamics of the coupled system, we have developed a series of variations on the well studied RICE and DICE models, which employ different forms of agent-based market dynamics and "climate surprises." Markets are introduced through the replacement of the production function of the DICE/RICE models with an agent-based market modeling the interactions of producers, policymakers, and consumer agents. Technological change and population growth are treated endogenously. Climate surprises are representations of positive (for example, ice sheet collapse) or negative (for example, increased aerosols from desertification) feedbacks that are turned on with probability depending on warming. Initial results point toward the possibility of large amplitude instabilities in the coupled human-climate system owing to the mismatch between short outlook market dynamics and long term climate responses. Implications for predictability of future climate will be discussed. Supported by the Andrew W Mellon Foundation and the UC Academic Senate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED33A0313C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED33A0313C">Take One Boat: from offshore science to onshore art</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cotterill, C. 2017-12-01 The International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) is a collaborative programme that works to explore the oceans and the rocks beneath them. Working from shallow to deep waters, and in ice covered to more tropical areas, scientists work together to sample ocean sediments and rocks, and install subsea observatories, in order to investigate our planets dynamic history. The European Consortium for Ocean Research Drilling (ECORD) are one arm of IODP, and the Education and Outreach Task Force are investigating ways of taking education and outreach further - how can we convey the excitement of this program to others and inspire careers in STEM subjects?Cape Farewell are a think / do tank who gather artists, designers, filmmakers and writers to interact with scientists and find ways to address climate change. From creation of internationally touring artworks to films and novels, Cape Farewell continues to educate engage and inspire. For 3 years the author was involved in Cape Farewell not only as a research scientist, but also as a mentor within the educational programme. Over the course of two expeditions, students were invited to design both a science research project and an accompanying arts project that investigated climate change in this fragile environment, replicating the model used for professional scientists and artists. The long term aim of the project was to support peer to peer learning, with students working as youth ambassadors within their schools and communities. With outputs from this style of engagement now including digital artwork exhibitions, a multi-disciplinary arts school, online resources and the initiation of the youth climate change summit, this talk investigates what lessons can be learnt from this dynamic combination of arts and science, to develop a programme that takes just one boat, and makes a big change in how we communicate science. "The art the students have been producing has been inspired by the science they have learnt, what they experienced during the voyage and their own narratives of being in the Arctic. Unlike school, boundaries between subjects have not been important. Their learning was experiential and in many cases the voyage was a life changing experience" Subathra Subramaniam, Choreographer and science teacher </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H23D1304A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H23D1304A">Multi-Objective Lake Superior Regulation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Asadzadeh, M.; Razavi, S.; Tolson, B. 2011-12-01 At the direction of the International Joint Commission (IJC) the International Upper Great Lakes Study (IUGLS) Board is investigating possible changes to the present method of regulating the outflows of Lake Superior (SUP) to better meet the contemporary needs of the stakeholders. In this study, a new plan in the form of a rule curve that is directly interpretable for regulation of SUP is proposed. The proposed rule curve has 18 parameters that should be optimized. The IUGLS Board is also interested in a regulation strategy that considers potential effects of climate uncertainty. Therefore, the quality of the rule curve is assessed simultaneously for multiple supply sequences that represent various future climate scenarios. The rule curve parameters are obtained by solving a computationally intensive bi-objective simulation-optimization problem that maximizes the total increase in navigation and hydropower benefits of the new regulation plan and minimizes the sum of all normalized constraint violations. The objective and constraint values are obtained from a Microsoft Excel based Shared Vision Model (SVM) that compares any new SUP regulation plan with the current regulation policy. The underlying optimization problem is solved by a recently developed, highly efficient multi-objective optimization algorithm called Pareto Archived Dynamically Dimensioned Search (PA-DDS). To further improve the computational efficiency of the simulation-optimization problem, the model pre-emption strategy is used in a novel way to avoid the complete evaluation of regulation plans with low quality in both objectives. Results show that the generated rule curve is robust and typically more reliable when facing unpredictable climate conditions compared to other SUP regulation plans. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012QSRv...31...82H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012QSRv...31...82H">Early and mid-Holocene age for the Tempanos moraines, Laguna San Rafael, Patagonian Chile</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Harrison, Stephan; Glasser, Neil F.; Duller, Geoff A. T.; Jansson, Krister N. 2012-01-01 Data about the nature and timing of Holocene events from the Southern Hemisphere, especially in southern South America, are required to provide insight into the extent and nature of past climate change in a region where land-based records are restricted. Here we present the first use of single grain Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating of a moraine sequence recording glacial advance along the western side of the Patagonian Icefields. Dates from the Tempanos moraines at Laguna San Rafael (LSR) show that the San Rafael Glacier (SRG) advanced to maximum Holocene positions during the period 9.3 to 9.7 ka and at 5.7 ka. Outwash lying beneath the moraine in its northern portion, dated to 7.7 ka, indicates that the glacier front was also advanced at this time. Since these advances span both the regional early Holocene warm-dry phase (11.5 ka to 7.8 ka) and the subsequent cooling and rise in precipitation in the mid-late Holocene (since 6.6 ka) we infer that the advances of the SRG are not simply climate-driven, but that the glacier has also probably responded strongly to non-climatic stimuli such as internal ice dynamics and the transition between calving and non-calving. Many westwards-flowing glaciers in Patagonia were probably calving during much of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, so we conclude that establishing robust glacial chronologies where climatic and non-climatic factors cannot be distinguished is likely to remain a challenge. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRC..119.7660G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRC..119.7660G">The Southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and climate experiment (SPICE)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ganachaud, A.; Cravatte, S.; Melet, A.; Schiller, A.; Holbrook, N. J.; Sloyan, B. M.; Widlansky, M. J.; Bowen, M.; Verron, J.; Wiles, P.; Ridgway, K.; Sutton, P.; Sprintall, J.; Steinberg, C.; Brassington, G.; Cai, W.; Davis, R.; Gasparin, F.; Gourdeau, L.; Hasegawa, T.; Kessler, W.; Maes, C.; Takahashi, K.; Richards, K. J.; Send, U. 2014-11-01 The Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (SPICE) is an international research program under the auspices of CLIVAR. The key objectives are to understand the Southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) dynamics, as well as their influence on regional and basin-scale climate patterns. South Pacific thermocline waters are transported in the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC) toward Australia and Papua-New Guinea. On its way, the SEC encounters the numerous islands and straits of the Southwest Pacific and forms boundary currents and jets that eventually redistribute water to the equator and high latitudes. The transit in the Coral, Solomon, and Tasman Seas is of great importance to the climate system because changes in either the temperature or the amount of water arriving at the equator have the capability to modulate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, while the southward transports influence the climate and biodiversity in the Tasman Sea. After 7 years of substantial in situ oceanic observational and modeling efforts, our understanding of the region has much improved. We have a refined description of the SPCZ behavior, boundary currents, pathways, and water mass transformation, including the previously undocumented Solomon Sea. The transports are large and vary substantially in a counter-intuitive way, with asymmetries and gating effects that depend on time scales. This paper provides a review of recent advancements and discusses our current knowledge gaps and important emerging research directions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NHESS..14.1921M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NHESS..14.1921M">Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Baldi, M.; Becker, A.; Bichet, A.; Blöschl, G.; Bouwer, L. M.; Brauer, A.; Cioffi, F.; Delgado, J. M.; Gocht, M.; Guzzetti, F.; Harrigan, S.; Hirschboeck, K.; Kilsby, C.; Kron, W.; Kwon, H.-H.; Lall, U.; Merz, R.; Nissen, K.; Salvatti, P.; Swierczynski, T.; Ulbrich, U.; Viglione, A.; Ward, P. J.; Weiler, M.; Wilhelm, B.; Nied, M. 2014-07-01 Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction of local, catchment-specific characteristics, such as meteorology, topography and geology. These traditional views have been beneficial, but they have a narrow framing. In this paper we contrast traditional views with broader perspectives that are emerging from an improved understanding of the climatic context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical approaches in flood estimation need to be complemented by the search for the causal mechanisms and dominant processes in the atmosphere, catchment and river system that leave their fingerprints on flood characteristics. (3) Natural climate variability leads to time-varying flood characteristics, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand the interactions between society and floods. (5) Given the global scale and societal importance, we call for the organization of an international multidisciplinary collaboration and data-sharing initiative to further understand the links between climate and flooding and to advance flood research. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/8356','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/8356">Constraining climatic controls on hillslope dynamics using a coupled model for the transport of soil and tracers: Application to loess-mantled hillslopes, Charwell River, South Island, New Zealand</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> J.J. Roering; P. Almond; P. Tonkin; J. McKean 2004-01-01 Landscapes reflect a legacy of tectonic and climatic forcing as modulated by surface processes. Because the morphologic characteristics of landscapes often do not allow us to uniquely define the relative roles of tectonic deformation and climate, additional constraints are required to interpret and predict landscape dynamics. Here we describe a coupled model for the... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A13H..01E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A13H..01E">Convective Aggregation, Climate Sensitivity, and the Importance of Radiation Physics in Weather and Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Emanuel, K. 2015-12-01 Since the revolutionary work of Vilhelm Bjerknes, Jule Charney, and Eric Eady, geophysical fluid dynamics has dominated weather research and continues to play an important in climate dynamics. Although the physics of radiative transfer is central to understanding climate, it has played a far smaller role in weather research and is given only rudimentary attention in most educational programs in meteorology. Yet key contemporary problems in atmospheric science, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the self-aggregation of moist convection, do not appear to have been solved by approaches based strictly on fluid dynamics and moist adiabatic thermodynamics. Here I will argue that many outstanding problems in meteorology and climate science involve a nontrivial coupling of circulation and radiation physics. In particular, the phenomenon of self-aggregation of moist convection depends on the interaction of radiation with time-varying water vapor and clouds, with strong implications for such diverse problems as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, tropical cyclones, and the relative insensitivity of tropical climate to radiative forcing. This argues for an augmentation of radiative transfer physics in graduate curricula in atmospheric sciences. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.U41D0036C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.U41D0036C">Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F. 2008-12-01 Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media/information operations model. Each of these models focuses on part of the overall picture while; each contributes information about its area of expertise to a common pool and draws from that pool and the feedbacks from the other models as needed. Existing high-quality physical models are based on analysis of the dynamic interactions of atmospheric, land, and ocean processes. The demographic model tracks the civilian demographics needed by the other models. The populations of neighborhood group age-gender cohorts are affected by births, deaths, aging, and migration. This model provides labor supply and product demand curves to the economic model. The political model focuses on political actors and describes how they use their clout to seek their goals. Clout is derived from civilian support, the formal and informal alliances that actors make with each other, military strength, wealth, and control of information. It considers how they are constrained by their cultural heritage. It deals with shifting alliances. The economic model determines local and international prices and production quantities for a small number of products, including imports and exports and black markets; wages, jobs, and unemployment for a small number of labor categories; capital, growth, and inflation; resource usage and pollution. The media/information operations model addresses the effects of the control and content of inter- group and intra-group communications-and the side effects of these on other groups. This model will consist of rules (probably a large number of them) detailing the effects of media/information operations of various kinds on civilian parameters used in the other models, such as political goals, concern saliencies, and shapes of supply and demand curves. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED33B0939A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED33B0939A">SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S. 2015-12-01 Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce skill development, community education, and/or adaptation/mitigation activities. Students are motivated by advanced real-world skill development, leadership opportunity, internship, community service and opportunity for international peer communication. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1306152-sensitivity-summer-ensembles-fledgling-superparameterized-mesoscale-convective-systems-cloud-resolving-model-microphysics-grid-configuration','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1306152-sensitivity-summer-ensembles-fledgling-superparameterized-mesoscale-convective-systems-cloud-resolving-model-microphysics-grid-configuration">Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; ... 2016-05-01 The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713773B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1713773B">Seasonality in cholera dynamics : a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns of an infectious disease in endemic areas</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Baracchini, Theo; Pascual, Mercedes; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rinaldo, Andrea 2015-04-01 An explanation for the spatial variability of seasonal cholera patterns has remained an unresolved problem in tropical medicine te{pascual_2002}. Previous studies addressing the role of climate drivers in disease dynamics have focused on interannual variability and modelled seasonality as given te{king_nature}. Explanations for seasonality have relied on complex environmental interactions that vary with spatial location (involving regional hydrological models te{bertuzzo_2012}, river discharge, sea surface temperature, and plankton blooms). Thus, no simple and unified theory based on local climate variables has been formulated te{emch_2008}, leaving our understanding of seasonal variations of cholera outbreaks in different regions of the world incomplete. Through the analysis of a unique historical dataset containing 50 years of monthly meteorological, demographic and epidemiological records, we propose a mechanistic, SIR-based stochastic model for the population dynamics of cholera driven by local rainfall and temperature that is able to capture the full range of seasonal patterns in this large estuarine region, which encompasses the variety of patterns worldwide. Parameter inference was implemented via new statistical methods that allow the computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for partially observed Markov processes through sequential Monte-Carlo te{ionides_2011}. Such a model may provide a unprecedented opportunity to gain insights on the conditions and factors responsible for endemicity around the globe, and therefore, to also revise our understanding of the ecology of Vibrio cholerae. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a decisive driver determining the seasonal dynamics of cholera. It was found that rainfall and longer water residence times tend to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to a dilution effect, while also enhancing cholera incidence in dry regions. This indicates that overall water levels matter and appear to determine whether the seasonality is uni- or bimodal, as well as whether it is pre-, post-, or in-phase with the monsoon te{akanda_2009}. We present evidence that the environmental reservoir is responsible for the persistence of the disease, and therefore its endemicity. Given the interplay between the seasonality of cholera and the environment, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms could allow for the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate. We provide an interpretation of those dynamics and discuss their implications. In terms of disease prevention and mitigation strategies this is of paramount importance today, as changes in the population dynamics of infectious diseases are expected in response to fast anthropogenic climate change. M. Pascual, M. J. Bouma, and A. P. Dobson, "Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence", Microbes and infections, 2002. A. A. King, E. L. Ionides, M. Pascual, M. J. Bouma, "Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics", Nature, 2008. E. Bertuzzo, L. Mari, L. Righetto, M. Gatto and R. Casagrandi et al., "Hydroclimatology of dual-peak annual cholera incidence: Insights from a spatially explicit model", Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 39, num. 5, p. -, 2012. M. Emch, C. Feldacker, M. S. Islam, and M. Ali, "Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns", International Journal of Health Geographics, 2008. E. L. Ionides, A. Bhadra, Y. Atchade, A. A. King, "Iterated filtering", Annals of Statistics, 2011. A. S. Akanda, A. S. Jutla, S. Islam, "Dual peak cholera transmission in Bangal Delta: A hydroclimatological explanation", Geophysical Reseach Letters, 2009. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1348396-dynamical-evidence-causality-between-galactic-cosmic-rays-interannual-variation-global-temperature','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1348396-dynamical-evidence-causality-between-galactic-cosmic-rays-interannual-variation-global-temperature">Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Deyle, Ethan R.; May, Robert M.; ... 2015-03-02 As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR). Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and elsewhere, demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we findmore » no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. Furthermore, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23411753','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23411753">The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI compared to ergonomics standards for assessing the thermal environment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bröde, Peter; Błazejczyk, Krzysztof; Fiala, Dusan; Havenith, George; Holmér, Ingvar; Jendritzky, Gerd; Kuklane, Kalev; Kampmann, Bernhard 2013-01-01 The growing need for valid assessment procedures of the outdoor thermal environment in the fields of public weather services, public health systems, urban planning, tourism & recreation and climate impact research raised the idea to develop the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI based on the most recent scientific progress both in thermo-physiology and in heat exchange theory. Following extensive validation of accessible models of human thermoregulation, the advanced multi-node 'Fiala' model was selected to form the basis of UTCI. This model was coupled with an adaptive clothing model which considers clothing habits by the general urban population and behavioral changes in clothing insulation related to actual environmental temperature. UTCI was developed conceptually as an equivalent temperature. Thus, for any combination of air temperature, wind, radiation, and humidity, UTCI is defined as the air temperature in the reference condition which would elicit the same dynamic response of the physiological model. This review analyses the sensitivity of UTCI to humidity and radiation in the heat and to wind in the cold and compares the results with observational studies and internationally standardized assessment procedures. The capabilities, restrictions and potential future extensions of UTCI are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1348396','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1348396">Dynamical evidence for causality between galactic cosmic rays and interannual variation in global temperature</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Deyle, Ethan R.; May, Robert M. As early as 1959, it was hypothesized that an indirect link between solar activity and climate could be mediated by mechanisms controlling the flux of galactic cosmic rays (CR). Although the connection between CR and climate remains controversial, a significant body of laboratory evidence has emerged at the European Organization for Nuclear Research and elsewhere, demonstrating the theoretical mechanism of this link. In this article, we present an analysis based on convergent cross mapping, which uses observational time series data to directly examine the causal link between CR and year-to-year changes in global temperature. Despite a gross correlation, we findmore » no measurable evidence of a causal effect linking CR to the overall 20th-century warming trend. Furthermore, on short interannual timescales, we find a significant, although modest, causal effect between CR and short-term, year-to-year variability in global temperature that is consistent with the presence of nonlinearities internal to the system. Thus, although CR do not contribute measurably to the 20th-century global warming trend, they do appear as a nontraditional forcing in the climate system on short interannual timescales.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.H52A..06C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSM.H52A..06C">Human and climate impact on global riverine water and sediment fluxes - a distributed analysis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P. 2013-05-01 Understanding riverine water and sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of climate, landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. The intensity and dynamics between man-made and climatic factors vary widely across the globe and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment and water discharge model (WBMsed) to simulate human and climate effect on our planet's large rivers. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29507286','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29507286">Sea ice dynamics across the Mid-Pleistocene transition in the Bering Sea.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Detlef, H; Belt, S T; Sosdian, S M; Smik, L; Lear, C H; Hall, I R; Cabedo-Sanz, P; Husum, K; Kender, S 2018-03-05 Sea ice and associated feedback mechanisms play an important role for both long- and short-term climate change. Our ability to predict future sea ice extent, however, hinges on a greater understanding of past sea ice dynamics. Here we investigate sea ice changes in the eastern Bering Sea prior to, across, and after the Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT). The sea ice record, based on the Arctic sea ice biomarker IP 25 and related open water proxies from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1343, shows a substantial increase in sea ice extent across the MPT. The occurrence of late-glacial/deglacial sea ice maxima are consistent with sea ice/land ice hysteresis and land-glacier retreat via the temperature-precipitation feedback. We also identify interactions of sea ice with phytoplankton growth and ocean circulation patterns, which have important implications for glacial North Pacific Intermediate Water formation and potentially North Pacific abyssal carbon storage. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ERL....13e4007J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ERL....13e4007J">Trends of atmospheric circulation during singular hot days in Europe</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jézéquel, Aglaé; Cattiaux, Julien; Naveau, Philippe; Radanovics, Sabine; Ribes, Aurélien; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Yiou, Pascal 2018-05-01 The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other days of the time series. We compute these dynamical trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. While we find a positive trend for most models for 2003, we cannot conclude for 2010 since the models disagree on the trend estimates. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23833870','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23833870">Assessing a Norwegian translation of the Organizational Climate Measure.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bernstrøm, Vilde Hoff; Lone, Jon Anders; Bjørkli, Cato A; Ulleberg, Pål; Hoff, Thomas 2013-04-01 This study investigated the Norwegian translation of the Organizational Climate Measure developed by Patterson and colleagues. The Organizational Climate Measure is a global measure of organizational climate based on Quinn and Rohrbaugh's competing values model. The survey was administered to a Norwegian branch of an international service sector company (N = 555). The results revealed satisfactory internal reliability and interrater agreement for the 17 scales, and confirmatory factor analysis supported the original factor structure. The findings gave preliminary support for the Organizational Climate Measure as a reliable measure with a stable factor structure, and indicated that it is potentially useful in the Norwegian context. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H24D..01H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H24D..01H">Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Helton, A. M.; Poole, G. C.; Payn, R. A.; Izurieta, C.; Wright, M.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Stanford, J. A. 2014-12-01 The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change). One type of change, the 'inverse storage effect' is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H24D..01H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H24D..01H">Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Harman, C. J. 2015-12-01 The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change). One type of change, the 'inverse storage effect' is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESS...16.1577V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012HESS...16.1577V">Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I. 2012-06-01 Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/45517','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/45517">Climate-FVS Version 2: Content, users guide, applications, and behavior</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Nicholas L. Crookston 2014-01-01 Climate change in the 21st Century is projected to cause widespread changes in forest ecosystems. Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation Simulator designed to take climate change into account when predicting forest dynamics at decadal to century time scales. Individual tree climate viability scores measure the likelihood that the climate at a given... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27066290','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27066290">Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Ngarakana-Gwasira, E T; Bhunu, C P; Masocha, M; Mashonjowa, E 2016-01-01 The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1511368L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1511368L">Landscape-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics under land use and climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lacoste, Marine; Viaud, Valérie; Michot, Didier; Christian, Walter 2013-04-01 Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is highly linked to soil use and farming practices, but also to soil redistributions, soil properties, and climate. In a global change context, landscape, farming practice and climate changes are expected; and they will most probably impact SOC dynamics. To assess their respective impacts, we modelled the SOC contents and stocks evolution at the scale of an agricultural landscape, by taking into account the soil redistribution by tillage and water processes. The simulations were conducted from 2010 to 2100 under different scenarios of landscape and climate. These scenarios combined different land uses associated to specific farming practices (mixed dairy with rotations of crops and grasslands, intensive cropping with only crops rotations or permanent grasslands), landscape managements (hedges planting or removal), and climates (business-as-usual climate and climate change, with temperature and precipitations increase). We used a spatially SOC dynamic model (adapted from RothC), coupled to a soil redistribution model (LandSoil). SOC dynamics were spatially modelled with a lateral resolution of 2-m and for soil organic layers up to 105 cm. Initial SOC stocks were described with a 2-m resolution map based on field data and produced with digital soil mapping methods. The major factor of change in SOC stocks was land use change, the second factor of importance was climate change, and finally landscape management: for the total SOC stocks (0-to-105 cm soil layer) the change of land use, climate and landscape management induced a respective mean absolute variation of 10 to 20 tC ha-1, 9 tC ha-1 and 0.4 tC ha-1. When considering the 0-to-105 cm soil layer, the different modelled landscapes showed the same sensitivity to climate change, with induced a mean decrease of 10 tC ha-1. However, the impact of climate change was found different according to the different modelled landscape when considering the 0-to-7.5 and 0-to-30 cm soil layers: the more sensitive landscapes were those of intensive cropping. This shows the importance of considering not only the plough layer, but also the vertical distribution of SOC stocks to assess the variation in SOC dynamics under land use, landscape management or climate change. Finally, rural hedgerow landscapes were proved to be quite well adapted for soil protection in a context of climate change, focusing on both carbon storage and soil erosion. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..APR.J7002S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017APS..APR.J7002S">Physics and Diplomacy: A True Story</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sessoms, Allen 2017-01-01 Physics has played a prominent role in U.S. diplomacy since the development of nuclear weapons during World War II. The discipline expanded its reach during the Atoms for Peace initiative of president Eisenhower and continued through the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Physics maintains a prominent role in the diplomatic dialogue through efforts in the nuclear non-proliferation arena and in major international science collaborations such as in experiments at CERN, ITER and the International Space Station. Physics has also served as the template for the much broader impact of science on diplomacy. For example, climate change, energy efficiency and ocean science have all benefitted from the path blazed by physicists. But how effective have physicists been in steering clear of political dynamics while trying to infuse scientific facts into policy debates? This talk will consider this through the eyes of a physicist who has spent many years providing advice to policy makers, both inside and outside of government. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22272362','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22272362">Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis 2012-01-01 Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3260292','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3260292">Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis 2012-01-01 Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18664424','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18664424">Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Keith, David A; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thuiller, Wilfried; Midgley, Guy F; Pearson, Richard G; Phillips, Steven J; Regan, Helen M; Araújo, Miguel B; Rebelo, Tony G 2008-10-23 Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28474676','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28474676">A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric 2017-05-05 Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED53H0230H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMED53H0230H">Understanding and Improving Ocean Mixing Parameterizations for modeling Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Clarke, J.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.; Dubovikov, M. S. 2017-12-01 Climate is vital. Earth is only habitable due to the atmosphere&oceans' distribution of energy. Our Greenhouse Gas emissions shift overall the balance between absorbed and emitted radiation causing Global Warming. How much of these emissions are stored in the ocean vs. entering the atmosphere to cause warming and how the extra heat is distributed depends on atmosphere&ocean dynamics, which we must understand to know risks of both progressive Climate Change and Climate Variability which affect us all in many ways including extreme weather, floods, droughts, sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption. Citizens must be informed to make decisions such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to avert catastrophe. Simulations of Climate Change provide needed knowledge but in turn need reliable parameterizations of key physical processes, including ocean mixing, which greatly impacts transport&storage of heat and dissolved CO2. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS seeks to use physical theory to improve parameterizations of ocean mixing, including smallscale convective, shear driven, double diffusive, internal wave and tidal driven vertical mixing, as well as mixing by submesoscale eddies, and lateral mixing along isopycnals by mesoscale eddies. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. We write our own programs in MATLAB and FORTRAN to visualize and process output of ocean simulations including producing statistics to help judge impacts of different parameterizations on fidelity in reproducing realistic temperatures&salinities, diffusivities and turbulent power. The results can help upgrade the parameterizations. Students are introduced to complex system modeling and gain deeper appreciation of climate science and programming skills, while furthering climate science. We are incorporating climate projects into the Medgar Evers college curriculum. The PI is both a member of the turbulence group at NASA-GISS and an associate professor at Medgar Evers College of CUNY, an urban minority serving institution in central Brooklyn. Supported by NSF Award AGS-1359293 And NASA Award NNX17AC81G. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51I0194E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51I0194E">Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G. 2016-12-01 Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024453','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024453">Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X. 2002-01-01 The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5870403-topics-geophysical-fluid-dynamics-atmospheric-dynamics-dynamo-theory-climate-dynamics','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5870403-topics-geophysical-fluid-dynamics-atmospheric-dynamics-dynamo-theory-climate-dynamics">Topics in geophysical fluid dynamics: Atmospheric dynamics, dynamo theory, and climate dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Ghil, M.; Childress, S. 1987-01-01 This text is the first study to apply systematically the successive bifurcations approach to complex time-dependent processes in large scale atmospheric dynamics, geomagnetism, and theoretical climate dynamics. The presentation of recent results on planetary-scale phenomena in the earth's atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, mantle and core provides an integral account of mathematical theory and methods together with physical phenomena and processes. The authors address a number of problems in rapidly developing areas of geophysics, bringing into closer contact the modern tools of nonlinear mathematics and the novel problems of global change in the environment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B13L..08K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B13L..08K">Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C. 2017-12-01 Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H23I..05P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H23I..05P">Cholera and shigellosis in Bangladesh: similarities and differences in population dynamics under climate forcing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pascual, M.; Cash, B.; Reiner, R.; King, A.; Emch, M.; Yunus, M.; Faruque, A. S. 2012-12-01 The influence of climate variability on the population dynamics of infectious diseases is considered a large scale, regional, phenomenon, and as such, has been previously addressed for cholera with temporal models that do not incorporate fine-scale spatial structure. In our previous work, evidence for a role of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on cholera in Bangladesh was elucidated, and shown to influence the regional climate through precipitation. With a probabilistic spatial model for cholera dynamics in the megacity of Dhaka, we found that the action of climate variability (ENSO and flooding) is localized: there is a climate-sensitive urban core that acts to propagate risk to the rest of the city. Here, we consider long-term surveillance data for shigellosis, another diarrheal disease that coexists with cholera in Bangladesh. We compare the patterns of association with climate variables for these two diseases in a rural setting, as well as the spatial structure in their spatio-temporal dynamics in an urban one. Evidence for similar patterns is presented, and discussed in the context of the differences in the routes of transmission of the two diseases and the proposed role of an environmental reservoir in cholera. The similarities provide evidence for a more general influence of hydrology and of socio-economic factors underlying human susceptibility and sanitary conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27640648','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27640648">A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice 2016-01-01 The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students' perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students' interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students' intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28165976','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28165976">A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice 2016-01-01 Background The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students' perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Methods Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). Results The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. Conclusion The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students' interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students' intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/fxus07.html','SCIGOVWS'); return false;" href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/fxus07.html">Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.science.gov/aboutsearch.html">Science.gov Websites</a> SEASONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY, INCLUDING ENSO, SOIL MOISTURE, AND VARIOUS STATE-OF-THE-ART DYNAMICAL MODEL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS DUE TO VERY HIGH SOIL TRENDS, NEGATIVE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES, LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS, AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE ALL </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21F2010N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21F2010N">Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T. 2017-12-01 According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4381354','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4381354">Tax authorities' interaction with taxpayers: A conception of compliance in social dilemmas by power and trust</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Gangl, Katharina; Hofmann, Eva; Kirchler, Erich 2015-01-01 Tax compliance represents a social dilemma in which the short-term self-interest to minimize tax payments is at odds with the collective long-term interest to provide sufficient tax funds for public goods. According to the Slippery Slope Framework, the social dilemma can be solved and tax compliance can be guaranteed by power of tax authorities and trust in tax authorities. The framework, however, remains silent on the dynamics between power and trust. The aim of the present theoretical paper is to conceptualize the dynamics between power and trust by differentiating coercive and legitimate power and reason-based and implicit trust. Insights into this dynamic are derived from an integration of a wide range of literature such as on organizational behavior and social influence. Conclusions on the effect of the dynamics between power and trust on the interaction climate between authorities and individuals and subsequent individual motivation of cooperation in social dilemmas such as tax contributions are drawn. Practically, the assumptions on the dynamics can be utilized by authorities to increase cooperation and to change the interaction climate from an antagonistic climate to a service and confidence climate. PMID:25859096 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25859096','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25859096">Tax authorities' interaction with taxpayers: A conception of compliance in social dilemmas by power and trust.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Gangl, Katharina; Hofmann, Eva; Kirchler, Erich 2015-02-01 Tax compliance represents a social dilemma in which the short-term self-interest to minimize tax payments is at odds with the collective long-term interest to provide sufficient tax funds for public goods. According to the Slippery Slope Framework, the social dilemma can be solved and tax compliance can be guaranteed by power of tax authorities and trust in tax authorities. The framework, however, remains silent on the dynamics between power and trust. The aim of the present theoretical paper is to conceptualize the dynamics between power and trust by differentiating coercive and legitimate power and reason-based and implicit trust. Insights into this dynamic are derived from an integration of a wide range of literature such as on organizational behavior and social influence. Conclusions on the effect of the dynamics between power and trust on the interaction climate between authorities and individuals and subsequent individual motivation of cooperation in social dilemmas such as tax contributions are drawn. Practically, the assumptions on the dynamics can be utilized by authorities to increase cooperation and to change the interaction climate from an antagonistic climate to a service and confidence climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811671A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811671A">On the Role of Hyper-arid Regions within the Virtual Water Trade Network</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Aggrey, James; Alshamsi, Aamena; Molini, Annalisa 2016-04-01 Climate change, economic development, and population growth are bound to increasingly impact global water resources, posing a significant threat to the sustainable development of arid regions, where water consumption highly exceeds the natural carrying capacity, population growth rate is high, and climate variability is going to impact both water consumption and availability. Virtual Water Trade (VWT) - i.e. the international trade network of water-intensive products - has been proposed as a possible solution to optimize the allocation of water resources on the global scale. By increasing food availability and lowering food prices it may in fact help the rapid development of water-scarce regions. The structure of the VWT network has been analyzed by a number of authors both in connection with trade policies, socioeconomic constrains and agricultural efficiency. However a systematic analysis of the structure and the dynamics of the VWT network conditional to aridity, climatic forcing and energy availability, is still missing. Our goal is hence to analyze the role of arid and hyper-arid regions within the VWN under diverse climatic, demographic, and energy constraints with an aim to contribute to the ongoing Energy-Water-Food nexus discussion. In particular, we focus on the hyper-arid lands of the Arabian Peninsula, the role they play in the global network and the assessment of their specific criticalities, as reflected in the VWN resilience. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438055','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438055">A series of abnormal climatic conditions caused the most severe outbreak of first-generation adults of the meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis L.) in China.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Chen, Xiao; Zeng, Juan; Zhai, Baoping 2016-06-01 The meadow moth, Loxostege sticticalis L., is a destructive migratory pest in the northern temperate zone. The outbreak mechanism of first-generation adults in China remains unclear. In 2008, the density of first-generation larvae was very low or even negligible in most sites in China. However, a great number of first-generation adults appeared unexpectedly in late July, and their offspring caused the most severe infestation on record. The present study aims to determine where the large influx of immigrant adults originated from and how this unprecedented population was established. Source areas were explored by trajectory analysis, and climatic patterns related to the population increase were investigated. Results showed that the outbreak population mainly immigrated from Northeast Mongolia and the Chita State of Russia, and the buildup of such a large population could be attributed to an exceptional northward migration of overwintered adults from North China to East Mongolia in the spring of 2007 and unusually favourable climatic conditions in the next two growth seasons. These results indicated that the population dynamics of meadow moth in Northeast Asia would be difficult to predict when only considering local climatic factors and population size within one country. International joint monitoring and information sharing related to this pest between China, Mongolia and Russia should be implemented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBm...60..789C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016IJBm...60..789C">A series of abnormal climatic conditions caused the most severe outbreak of first-generation adults of the meadow moth ( Loxostege sticticalis L.) in China</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chen, Xiao; Zeng, Juan; Zhai, Baoping 2016-06-01 The meadow moth, Loxostege sticticalis L., is a destructive migratory pest in the northern temperate zone. The outbreak mechanism of first-generation adults in China remains unclear. In 2008, the density of first-generation larvae was very low or even negligible in most sites in China. However, a great number of first-generation adults appeared unexpectedly in late July, and their offspring caused the most severe infestation on record. The present study aims to determine where the large influx of immigrant adults originated from and how this unprecedented population was established. Source areas were explored by trajectory analysis, and climatic patterns related to the population increase were investigated. Results showed that the outbreak population mainly immigrated from Northeast Mongolia and the Chita State of Russia, and the buildup of such a large population could be attributed to an exceptional northward migration of overwintered adults from North China to East Mongolia in the spring of 2007 and unusually favourable climatic conditions in the next two growth seasons. These results indicated that the population dynamics of meadow moth in Northeast Asia would be difficult to predict when only considering local climatic factors and population size within one country. International joint monitoring and information sharing related to this pest between China, Mongolia and Russia should be implemented. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27726439','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27726439">Survey of International Members of the American Thoracic Society on Climate Change and Health.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Sarfaty, Mona; Kreslake, Jennifer; Ewart, Gary; Guidotti, Tee L; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Maibach, Edward W 2016-10-01 The American Thoracic Society (ATS), in collaboration with George Mason University, surveyed international members of the society to assess perceptions, clinical experiences, and preferred policy responses related to global climate change. A recruitment email was sent by the ATS President in October 2015 to 5,013 international members. Subsequently, four reminder emails were sent to nonrespondents. Responses were received from 489 members in 68 countries; the response rate was 9.8%. Half of respondents reported working in countries in Asia (25%) or Europe (25%), with the remainder in South America (18%), North America (Canada and Mexico) (18%), Australia or New Zealand (9%), and Africa (6%). Survey estimate confidence intervals were ± 5% or smaller. A high percentage of international ATS survey respondents judged that climate change is happening (96%), that it is driven by human activity (70%), and that it is relevant to patient care ("a great deal"/"a moderate amount") (80%). A majority of respondents also indicated they are already observing health impacts of climate change among their patients; most commonly as increases in chronic disease severity from air pollution (88%), allergic symptoms from exposure to plants or mold (72%), and severe weather injuries (69%). An even larger majority anticipated seeing these climate-related health impacts in the next two decades. Respondents further indicated that physicians and physician organizations should play an active role in educating patients, the public, and policy makers on the human health effects of climate change. International ATS respondents, like their counterparts in the U.S., observed that human health is already adversely affected by climate change, and support responses to address this situation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113153Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1113153Z">Satellite remote sensing assessment of climate impact on forest vegetation dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zoran, M. 2009-04-01 Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modelling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images with the Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series algorithm. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. The aim of this paper was to quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) parameter extracted from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and ETM satellite images and meteorological data over l995-2007 period. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI decline was observed between 1995 and 2007 due to the drought events during 2003 and 2007 years. Under stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and topography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics. Specific aim of this paper was to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems and its biodiversity as well as on adjacent environment areas and to provide early warning strategies on the basis of spectral information derived from satellite data regarding atmospheric effects of forest biome degradation . The paper aims to describe observed trends and potential impacts based on scenarios from simulations with regional climate models and other downscaling procedures. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10k4023N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10k4023N">Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando 2015-11-01 Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26692890','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26692890">Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando 2015-11-01 Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711175B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1711175B">Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier 2015-04-01 At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.4724I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.4724I">The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo 2010-05-01 Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC43D1061F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMGC43D1061F">The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O. 2012-12-01 A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=309678&keyword=climate+AND+adaptation&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=309678&keyword=climate+AND+adaptation&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">Introduction to Federal and EPA Climate Change Web Resources</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> Presentation provides an overview of four climate data and tool websites: the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and Climate Resilience Toolkit (interagency websites); the main EPA climate change website; and the internal EPA Adaptation Resource Center website. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1510707O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1510707O">The HOLOANTAR project: Holocene environmental change in the Maritime Antarctic. Interactions between permafrost and the lacustrine environment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Oliva, Marc; Vieira, Gonçalo; Mora, Carla; Trindade, Alexandre; Agrela, Joao; Batista, Vanessa; Correia, António; Schaefer, Carlos; Simas, Felipe; Ramos, Miguel; De Pablo, Miguel Angel; Toro, Manuel; Antoniades, Dermot; Galan, Luis; Giralt, Santiago; Granados, Ignacio; Pla, Sergi; Serrano, Enrique 2013-04-01 The objective of this abstract is to present the HOLOANTAR project, a multidisciplinary research funded by the Portuguese Government. The project integrates 16 researchers from different international institutions (Portugal, Spain, Brazil and Uruguay).. The main purpose of HOLOANTAR is to infer the palaeoenvironmental evolution and associated climate variability occurred over the last millennia in ice-free areas of the Maritime Antarctica based on the study of lake sediments. The South Shetland Islands (SSI) are located in the northwestern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, one of the Earth's regions that have experienced a stronger warming signal during the second half of the 20th century. In the ice-free areas of this archipelago the terrestrial ecosystem is supported by permafrost, though its reaction to climate change is still poorly known. However, in the recent years a very important effort took place to monitor the thermal state and characteristics of permafrost in order to study its response to the recent warming trend. Many international teams are involved on several of these long-term monitoring projects, but HOLOANTAR, in addition, pretends to offer a new integrated approach aiming to bridge the gap between contemporary and past changes in permafrost environments. HOLOANTAR project is based on two main hypotheses: a) A multi-proxy analysis of lake sediments will allow reconstructing the palaeoecological evolution in the Maritime Antarctic and the role played in it by permafrost and active layer dynamics, b) The detection of activity rates, spatial patterns and geographical controls of contemporary key-geomorphic processes and permafrost distribution, will allow defining their limiting climatic conditions that will be used to interpret the sedimentary record. This approach is innovative since it will focus on both present and past geomorphodynamics as keys for understanding the landscape evolution. In Byers Peninsula (Livingston), the largest ice-free area in the South Shetland Islands, where the environment is dominated by permafrost and active layer dynamics, climate variability should have induced modifications on the erosion rates at the slopes, mass movements, active layer thickness, biological activity, etc. In a context of fast rate of current change in mean annual air temperatures, it is possible that by studying similar features at different altitudes, different movement rates and an altitudinal/climatic boundary for their activity may be found, thus providing important applications for the palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. We will approach the two leading hypothesis in Byers environment by executing five main tasks: geomorphological mapping, geomorphological monitoring and permafrost distribution, sedimentological field work, laboratory analyses and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. During the first field work campaign that took place in November-December 2012, up to four lakes were sampled. Future studies of these sediments will allow reconstructing the environment in Byers since the deglaciation of westernmost part of Livingston island. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26692656','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26692656">Amplification or suppression: Social networks and the climate change-migration association in rural Mexico.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M 2015-11-01 Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks - the ties connecting an origin and destination - may operate as "migration corridors" with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying , social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0116F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG41A0116F">Nonlinear Dynamical Modes as a Basis for Short-Term Forecast of Climate Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Seleznev, A.; Loskutov, E. 2017-12-01 We study abilities of data-driven stochastic models constructed by nonlinear dynamical decomposition of spatially distributed data to quantitative (short-term) forecast of climate characteristics. We compare two data processing techniques: (i) widely used empirical orthogonal function approach, and (ii) nonlinear dynamical modes (NDMs) framework [1,2]. We also make comparison of two kinds of the prognostic models: (i) traditional autoregression (linear) model and (ii) model in the form of random ("stochastic") nonlinear dynamical system [3]. We apply all combinations of the above-mentioned data mining techniques and kinds of models to short-term forecasts of climate indices based on sea surface temperature (SST) data. We use NOAA_ERSST_V4 dataset (monthly SST with space resolution 20 × 20) covering the tropical belt and starting from the year 1960. We demonstrate that NDM-based nonlinear model shows better prediction skill versus EOF-based linear and nonlinear models. Finally we discuss capability of NDM-based nonlinear model for long-term (decadal) prediction of climate variability. [1] D. Mukhin, A. Gavrilov, E. Loskutov , A.Feigin, J.Kurths, 2015: Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability, Scientific Reports, rep. 5, 15510; doi: 10.1038/srep15510. [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J., 2016: Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. [3] Ya. Molkov, D. Mukhin, E. Loskutov, A. Feigin, 2012: Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.5635P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.5635P">Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele 2010-05-01 Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910331P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910331P">Geosphere-biosphere interactions in European Protected Areas: a view from the H2020 ECOPOTENTIAL Project</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Karnieli, Arnon; Marangi, Carmela; Giamberini, Mariasilvia; Imperio, Simona 2017-04-01 The large H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL (2015-2019, 47 partners, contributing to GEO and GEOSS - http://www.ecopotential-project.eu/) is devoted to making best use of remote sensing and in situ data to improve future ecosystem benefits, adopting the view of ecosystems as one physical system with their environment, focusing on geosphere-biosphere interactions, Earth Critical Zone dynamics, Macrosystem Ecology and cross-scale interactions, the effect of extreme events and using Essential (Climate, Biodiversity and Ocean) Variables as descriptors of change. In ECOPOTENTIAL, remote sensing and in situ data are collected, processed and used for a better understanding of the ecosystem dynamics, analysing and modelling the effects of global changes on ecosystem functions and services, over an array of different ecosystem types, including mountain, marine, coastal, arid and semi-arid ecosystems. The project focuses on a network of Protected Areas of international relevance, that is representative of the range of environmental and biogeographical conditions characterizing Europe. Some of the activities of the project are devoted to detect and quantify the changes taking place in the Protected Areas, through the analysis of remote sensing observations, in-situ data and gridded climatic datasets. Likewise, the project aims at providing estimates of the future ecosystem conditions in different climate and environmental change scenarios. In all such endeavours, one is faced with cross-scale issues: downscaling of climate information to drive ecosystem response, and upscaling of local ecosystem changes to larger scales. So far, the analysis has been conducted mainly by using traditional methods, but there is wide room for improvement by using more refined approaches. In particular, a crucial question is how to upscale the information gained at single-site scale to larger, regional or continental scale, an issue that could benefit from using, for example, complex network analysis. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910172B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910172B">Sediment aggradation and erosional dynamics of intermontane basins in NW Argentina</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bookhagen, Bodo; Castino, Fabiana; Purinton, Ben; Strecker, Manfred 2017-04-01 The NW Argentine Andes constitute the Andean Plateau (Altiplano-Puna), the second-largest orogenic plateau on Earth, an internally drained highland with a mean elevation of 4.0 ± 0.5 km (±2 sigma). The Puna is flanked by the externally drained Eastern Cordillera thrust belt and the adjacent broken foreland that are connected to the Atlantic Ocean. These mountain ranges lie in the south-central Andes and are characterized by steep topographic and climatic gradients: The first windward topographic rise east of the Puna forms a significant orographic barrier resulting in high orographic rainfall causing some of the wettest places on Earth. In contrast, the higher-elevation areas of the windward flanks become progressively drier westward, until arid conditions are attained in the central Puna. During the Quaternary the south-central Andes have repeatedly experienced significant paleoclimatic changes associated with deeper penetration of moisture into the orogen, and thus an orogenward shift of the climate gradient. This mechanism has resulted in large variations in erosion dynamics and sediment transfer toward the foreland, resulting in thick valley fills and multiple terrace levels. At much shorter timescales, climate variability during the Holocene has caused similar, yet less pronounced hydrologic trends and associated sedimentation- and erosion processes. Here, we use a time series of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to reconstruct land-level changes in the intramontane basins in NW Argentina. We generated the DEMs and height measurements based on stereo airphotos from the 1980s, ASTER satellite imagery, ICESat and dGPS measurements during the past decade, and several TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X CoSSC pairs starting in 2013. Our data show a strong signal of fluvial sediment aggradation during the past 30 years, in places up to 0.5m per decade, which explains the regionally observed, modern sediment accumulation in basins that has caused major infrastructural problems. We link the increased sediment flux to cascading processes reflecting environmental and climatic changes of the southern-central Andes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18556548','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18556548">Predictive models of forest dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen 2008-06-13 Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncep.noaa.gov','SCIGOVWS'); return false;" href="http://www.ncep.noaa.gov">National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.science.gov/aboutsearch.html">Science.gov Websites</a> Tropical Marine Fire Weather Forecast Maps Unified Surface Analysis Climate Climate Prediction Climate forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53G..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53G..02S">Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S. 2017-12-01 Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5563806','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5563806">Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E. 2017-01-01 Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28814655','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28814655">Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E 2017-08-16 Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23G0296L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23G0296L">The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements in Understanding AMOC</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lucas, S. E. 2016-12-01 The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects on improving the understanding Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its impact on decadal predictability, and its relationship with the overall climate system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.8321N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.8321N">Can Regional Climate Models be used in the assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nunes, Ana 2015-04-01 Extreme meteorological events played an important role in catastrophic occurrences observed in the past over densely populated areas in Brazil. This motived the proposal of an integrated system for analysis and assessment of vulnerability and risk caused by extreme events in urban areas that are particularly affected by complex topography. That requires a multi-scale approach, which is centered on a regional modeling system, consisting of a regional (spectral) climate model coupled to a land-surface scheme. This regional modeling system employs a boundary forcing method based on scale-selective bias correction and assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Scale-selective bias correction is a method similar to the spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling that allows internal modes to develop in agreement with the large-scale features, while the precipitation assimilation procedure improves the modeled deep-convection and drives the land-surface scheme variables. Here, the scale-selective bias correction acts only on the rotational part of the wind field, letting the precipitation assimilation procedure to correct moisture convergence, in order to reconstruct South American current climate within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. The hydroclimate reconstruction outputs might eventually produce improved initial conditions for high-resolution numerical integrations in metropolitan regions, generating more reliable short-term precipitation predictions, and providing accurate hidrometeorological variables to higher resolution geomorphological models. Better representation of deep-convection from intermediate scales is relevant when the resolution of the regional modeling system is refined by any method to meet the scale of geomorphological dynamic models of stability and mass movement, assisting in the assessment of risk areas and estimation of terrain stability over complex topography. The reconstruction of past extreme events also helps the development of a system for decision-making, regarding natural and social disasters, and reducing impacts. Numerical experiments using this regional modeling system successfully modeled severe weather events in Brazil. Comparisons with the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis outputs were made at resolutions of about 40- and 25-km of the regional climate model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.7949D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.7949D">Are abrupt climate changes predictable?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ditlevsen, Peter 2013-04-01 It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope record is presented. The result of the analysis points to a fundamental limitation in predictability of the third kind. Reference: P. D. Ditlevsen and S. Johnsen, "Tipping points: Early warning and wishful thinking", Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, 2010 </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC31A0860M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC31A0860M">Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M. 2010-12-01 Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25568038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25568038">A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost 2012-02-01 We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3353337','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3353337">A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost 2012-01-01 We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=395922','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=395922">The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Rueness, Eli Knispel; Lingjærde, Ole Chr.; Chan, Kung-Sik; Boutin, Stan; O'Donoghue, Mark; Robinson, David A.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Jakobsen, Kjetill S. 2004-01-01 The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the “climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns” model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics. PMID:15067131 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15..462R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15..462R">Internal waves and Equatorial dynamics: an observational study in the West Atlantic Ocean</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rabitti, Anna; Maas, Leo R. M.; van Haren, Hans; Gerkema, Theo 2013-04-01 Internal waves present several fascinating aspects of great relevance for geo- and astro-physical fluid dynamics. These waves are supported by all kinds of stratified and rotating fluids, such as, for example, our ocean, atmosphere, a planet fluid core or a star. In a non linear regime, because of their oblique propagation, they are thought to play a key role in diapycnal mixing, as well as in angular momentum mixing. Unfortunately, a complete analytical description of internal waves in arbitrarily shaped enclosed domains is still an ongoing challenge. On the other hand, internal wave energy is observed travelling along rays, whose behaviour can be traced and whose reflections off the container's boundaries appears crucial in producing phenomena such as focussing of wave energy onto specific trajectories (attractors), and in triggering localized instabilities. Ray tracing studies have shown that equatorial regions of stratified and/or rotating spherical shells are likely affected by these features, being the place where the simplest shaped and most energetic attractors occur. In this study we aim to investigate the possible presence and role of internal wave attractors in determining the equatorial ocean dynamics. Internal wave attractors, observed in laboratory and numerical experiments, have not been observed in Nature, yet. A unique set of observations, collected in the deep Equatorial West Atlantic Ocean, will be used here in order to explore this possibility, the dataset consisting of 1.5 year long time series of current measured acoustically and with current meters moored between 0°and 2°N, at 37°W, off the Brazilian coast. In particular, angular momentum mixing due to internal wave focussing, is explored as a possible mechanism for maintaining the Equatorial Deep Jets. These jets are stacked alternating zonal currents that are ubiquitously observed in all the oceans and whose nature is still largely unknown. Remarkably, jet like structures are also observed in the equatorial regions of fluid planets, suggesting that their existence could be related to general properties of the system such as shape, stratification and rotation. The equatorial ocean shows a different dynamics compared to off-equatorial regions, in terms of mean flow, internal wave and mixing properties. Despite the crucial role it plays in the global circulation and in our climate, this region is still poorly understood. We propose that the use of a new framework of interpretation, together with long term, in situ measurements can shed some light on the processes taking place in this peculiar region, and constitutes a key step towards a better understanding of energy fluxes in the ocean, as well as in other stratified, rotating fluid domains. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19323170','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19323170">Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M 2009-01-01 Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850005885&hterms=representation+death&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drepresentation%2Bdeath','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850005885&hterms=representation+death&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drepresentation%2Bdeath">Modeling long-term changes in forested landscapes and their relation to the Earth's energy balance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Shugart, H. H.; Emanuel, W. R.; Solomon, A. M. 1984-01-01 The dynamics of the forested parts of the Earth's surface on time scales from decades to centuries are discussed. A set of computer models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and elsewhere are applied as tools. These models simulate a landscape by duplicating the dynamics of growth, death and birth of each tree living on a 0.10 ha element of the landscape. This spatial unit is generally referred to as a gap in the case of the forest models. The models were tested against and applied to a diverse array of forests and appear to provide a reasonable representation for investigating forest-cover dynamics. Because of the climate linkage, one important test is the reconstruction of paleo-landscapes. Detailed reconstructions of changes in vegetation in response to changes in climate are crucial to understanding the association of the Earth's vegetation and climate and the response of the vegetation to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1214700-accelerating-time-integration-shallow-water-equations-sphere-using-gpus','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1214700-accelerating-time-integration-shallow-water-equations-sphere-using-gpus">Accelerating Time Integration for the Shallow Water Equations on the Sphere Using GPUs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Archibald, R.; Evans, K. J.; Salinger, A. 2015-06-01 The push towards larger and larger computational platforms has made it possible for climate simulations to resolve climate dynamics across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This direction in climate simulation has created a strong need to develop scalable timestepping methods capable of accelerating throughput on high performance computing. This study details the recent advances in the implementation of implicit time stepping of the spectral element dynamical core within the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) on graphical processing units (GPU) based machines. We demonstrate how solvers in the Trilinos project are interfaced with ACMEmore » and GPU kernels to increase computational speed of the residual calculations in the implicit time stepping method for the atmosphere dynamics. We demonstrate the optimization gains and data structure reorganization that facilitates the performance improvements.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70136234','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70136234">Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W. 2014-01-01 Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.5322C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.5322C">Blending geological observations and convection models to reconstruct mantle dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Coltice, Nicolas; Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Tackley, Paul 2015-04-01 Knowledge of the state of the Earth mantle and its temporal evolution is fundamental to a variety of disciplines in Earth Sciences, from the internal dynamics to its many expressions in the geological record (postglacial rebound, sea level change, ore deposit, tectonics or geomagnetic reversals). Mantle convection theory is the centerpiece to unravel the present and past state of the mantle. For the past 40 years considerable efforts have been made to improve the quality of numerical models of mantle convection. However, they are still sparsely used to estimate the convective history of the solid Earth, in comparison to ocean or atmospheric models for weather and climate prediction. The main shortcoming is their inability to successfully produce Earth-like seafloor spreading and continental drift self-consistently. Recent convection models have begun to successfully predict these processes. Such breakthrough opens the opportunity to retrieve the recent dynamics of the Earth's mantle by blending convection models together with advanced geological datasets. A proof of concept will be presented, consisting in a synthetic test based on a sequential data assimilation methodology. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/467667-heat-moisture-fluxes-within-nighttime-maritime-stratus-cloud-during-casp-ii','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/467667-heat-moisture-fluxes-within-nighttime-maritime-stratus-cloud-during-casp-ii">Heat and moisture fluxes within a nighttime maritime stratus cloud during CASP II</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Gultepe, I.; Issac, G. Stratus clouds in the lower part of the atmosphere over the ocean or land can play an important role in boundary layer processes and in climate change. Physical, dynamical, and radiative processes within marine stratus clouds on both cloud and regional scale are studied for the first time during the First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) (Albrecht et al., 1988). These clouds can effect the nowcasting, pollution transfer, and radiative processes (Nicholls and Leighton, 1986). Similar to the FIRE stratus project, the Canadian Atlantic Storms Program (CASP) II field project was planned to obtain a bettermore » understanding of cloud physical, dynamical, radiative characteristics, and mesoscale structure of Canadian east coast storms. Here the dynamical and microphysical data, and a radiative transfer model are used to better understand a developing nighttime stratus cloud over the ocean during CASP II which took place over Atlantic Canada. Observations collected by the Convair aircraft of the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada during the CASP II field project on February 6, 1991 are presented.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13E..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13E..06S">The Roadmap of Marine Observation Development Fostering the Understanding of Weather-Climate Characteristics in the Indonesian Maritime Continent</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sakya, A. E.; Ramdhani, A.; Florida, N.; Nurhayati, N. 2016-12-01 Indonesian Maritime Continent (MC) territory has a unique characteristics of weather-climate variation, due to its geographical position. MC accommodates complex atmosphere-ocean interaction phenomena with huge impacts not only on inter-seasonal, but also on global weather and short-term climate variation like Monsoons, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IOD). These phenomena give major contribution to the dynamics of rainfall patterns and climate variability in Indonesian MC. The above complexities are more predictable because observations in the Central and Eastern Pacific (TAO/TRITON) and Indian Ocean (RAMA) are available. Moreover, global remote-sensing observations through satellites have also been developed and its data is easily accessed. At present, maritime weather observation in Indonesia relies on global cooperation, observations carried out using remote sensing equipment, and in-situ observations made by the National Ministries/Institution. However, availability of marine observation data in the MC is very limited, especially inside Indonesian waters. It thus serves a challenge to BMKG to become more active in participating national and international partnership programs to encourage continuous in-situ marine observations. BMKG and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration America (NOAA) has a joint cooperation to maintain RAMA array as part of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and to deliver in-situ oceanic and atmospheric data trhough so-called Indonesian Program Initiative on Maritime Observations and Analysis (Indonesia PRIMA). Within next 5 years, BMKG will focus to foster in-situ marine observation on surface as well as underwater through various observation methods. The development of which is framed within the relevant international programs such as - among others - Year of Maritime Continent (YMC) 2017, JCOMM 5 session 2017, and Tropical Pacific Observation System 2020. These activities are also aligned with Indonesian government program envisions global maritime axis through reinforcement of weather and climate services in sea and pushes connectivity between islands, water transportation safety, natural resources marine exploration activities and other maritime activities. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21145634','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21145634">A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul 2011-03-01 A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. Copyright Â© 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25207754','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25207754">The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nenzén, Hedvig K; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara 2014-01-01 Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4160162','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4160162">The Impact of 850,000 Years of Climate Changes on the Structure and Dynamics of Mammal Food Webs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara 2014-01-01 Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities. PMID:25207754 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-07-30/pdf/2012-18440.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-07-30/pdf/2012-18440.pdf">77 FR 44611 - Notice of International Meeting</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2012-07-30 ... under the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate (APP). The APP was an international partnership between the United States, South Korea, Japan, India, Canada, China and Australia aimed at addressing the challenges of climate change, energy security and air pollution in a way that encouraged... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54161','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/54161">Assessing intra- and inter-regional climate effects on Douglas-fir biomass dynamics in Oregon and Washington, USA</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> David M. Bell; Andrew N. Gray 2016-01-01 While ecological succession shapes contemporary forest structure and dynamics, other factors like forest structure (dense vs. sparse canopies) and climate may alter structural trajectories. To assess potential sources of variation in structural trajectories, we examined proportional biomass change for a regionally dominant tree species, Douglas-fir (... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=attention+AND+change+AND+decision+AND+making&pg=6&id=EJ922569','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=attention+AND+change+AND+decision+AND+making&pg=6&id=EJ922569">The Dynamics of Climate Change: A Case Study in Organisational Learning</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Wasdell, David 2011-01-01 Purpose: Based in the discipline of applied consultancy-research, this paper seeks to present a synthesis-review of the social dynamics underlying the stalled negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its aim is to enhance understanding of the processes involved, to offer a working agenda to the organizational… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=253291','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=253291">Coordinated Approaches to Quantify Long-Term Ecosystem dynamics in Response to Global Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a> Climate change and its impact on ecosystems are usually assessed at decadal and century time scales. Ecological responses to climate change at those scales are strongly regulated by long-term processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by big trees, and nutrient r... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/29622','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/29622">Alpine treeline of western North America: linking organism-to-landscape dynamics.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> George P. Malanson; David R. Butler; Daniel B. Fagre; Stephen J. Walsh; Diana F. Tomback; Lori D. Daniels; Lynn M. Resler; William K. Smith; Daniel J. Weiss; David L. Peterson; Andrew G. Bunn; Christopher A. Hiemstra; Daniel Liptzin; Patrick S. Bourgeron; Zehao Shen; Constance I. Millar 2007-01-01 Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotoneseed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree diebackdepend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4024239','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4024239">More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Palmer, T. N. 2014-01-01 This paper sets out a new methodological approach to solving the equations for simulating and predicting weather and climate. In this approach, the conventionally hard boundary between the dynamical core and the sub-grid parametrizations is blurred. This approach is motivated by the relatively shallow power-law spectrum for atmospheric energy on scales of hundreds of kilometres and less. It is first argued that, because of this, the closure schemes for weather and climate simulators should be based on stochastic–dynamic systems rather than deterministic formulae. Second, as high-wavenumber elements of the dynamical core will necessarily inherit this stochasticity during time integration, it is argued that the dynamical core will be significantly over-engineered if all computations, regardless of scale, are performed completely deterministically and if all variables are represented with maximum numerical precision (in practice using double-precision floating-point numbers). As the era of exascale computing is approached, an energy- and computationally efficient approach to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulation is described where determinism and numerical precision are focused on the largest scales only. PMID:24842038 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24842038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24842038">More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Palmer, T N 2014-06-28 This paper sets out a new methodological approach to solving the equations for simulating and predicting weather and climate. In this approach, the conventionally hard boundary between the dynamical core and the sub-grid parametrizations is blurred. This approach is motivated by the relatively shallow power-law spectrum for atmospheric energy on scales of hundreds of kilometres and less. It is first argued that, because of this, the closure schemes for weather and climate simulators should be based on stochastic-dynamic systems rather than deterministic formulae. Second, as high-wavenumber elements of the dynamical core will necessarily inherit this stochasticity during time integration, it is argued that the dynamical core will be significantly over-engineered if all computations, regardless of scale, are performed completely deterministically and if all variables are represented with maximum numerical precision (in practice using double-precision floating-point numbers). As the era of exascale computing is approached, an energy- and computationally efficient approach to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulation is described where determinism and numerical precision are focused on the largest scales only. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PrOce.152...15T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PrOce.152...15T">Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E. 2017-03-01 Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915796W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915796W">Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben 2017-04-01 There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC52D..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC52D..01M">Uncertainty Analysis of Coupled Socioeconomic-Cropping Models: Building Confidence in Climate Change Decision-Support Tools for Local Stakeholders</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H. 2015-12-01 While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3855798','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3855798">Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel 2013-01-01 Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.3632C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.3632C">Palaeoclimate dynamics : a voyage through scales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Crucifix, Michel; Mitsui, Takahito 2015-04-01 Our knowledge of climate dynamics depends on indirect observations of past climate evolution, as well as on what can be inferred from theoretical arguments. At the scale of the Cenozoic, it is common to define a framework of nested time scales, the longest time scale of interest being related to the slow tectonic evolution, then variability associated with or controlled by the astronomical forcing, and finally the fastest dynamics associated with the natural modes of variability of the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, in a model, the astronomical modes of variability may be simulated with deterministic equations under fixed boundary conditions representing the tectonic state, and associated with stochastic parameterisations of the ocean-atmosphere (chaotic) modes of motion. Bifurcations or, more generally, qualitative changes in climate dynamics may be scanned by changing slowly the tectonic state, in order to provide explanations to observed changes in regimes such as the appearance of ice ages and their changes in length or amplitude. The above framework, largely theorized by B. Saltzman, may still be partly justified but is in need of a review. We address here specifically three questions: To what extent astronomical variability interacts with natural modes of ocean - atmosphere variability ? Specifically, how does millennial variability (e.g.: Dansgaard-Oeschger events) fit the Saltzman scheme ? The astronomical forcing is quasi-periodic, and we recently showed that it may produce somewhat counter-intuitive dynamics associated with the emergence of strange non-chaotic attractors. What are the consequences on the spectrum of climate variability ? What are the effects of centennial climate variability on the slow variability of climate ? These three questions are addressed by reference to recently published material, with the objective of emphasising research questions to be explored in the near future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/22110333','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/22110333">First Steps Toward a Quality of Climate Finance Scorecard (QUODA-CF): Creating a Comparative Index to Assess International Climate Finance Contributions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Sierra, Katherine; Roberts, Timmons; de Nevers, Michele Are climate finance contributor countries, multilateral aid agencies and specialized funds using widely accepted best practices in foreign assistance? How is it possible to measure and compare international climate finance contributions when there are as yet no established metrics or agreed definitions of the quality of climate finance? As a subjective metric, quality can mean different things to different stakeholders, while of donor countries, recipients and institutional actors may place quality across a broad spectrum of objectives. This subjectivity makes the assessment of the quality of climate finance contributions a useful and necessary exercise, but one that has many challenges.more » This work seeks to enhance the development of common definitions and metrics of the quality of climate finance, to understand what we can about those areas where climate finance information is available and shine a light on the areas where there is a severe dearth of data. Allowing for comparisons of the use of best practices across funding institutions in the climate sector could begin a process of benchmarking performance, fostering learning across institutions and driving improvements when incorporated in internal evaluation protocols of those institutions. In the medium term, this kind of benchmarking and transparency could support fundraising in contributor countries and help build trust with recipient countries. As a feasibility study, this paper attempts to outline the importance of assessing international climate finance contributions while describing the difficulties in arriving at universally agreed measurements and indicators for assessment. In many cases, data are neither readily available nor complete, and there is no consensus on what should be included. A number of indicators are proposed in this study as a starting point with which to analyze voluntary contributions, but in some cases their methodologies are not complete, and further research is required for a robust measurement tool to be created.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.4865H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.4865H">Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio 2010-05-01 Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.5517S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EGSGA..27.5517S">Millennial-scale Climate Variations Recorded As Far Back As The Early Pliocene</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Steenbrink, J.; Hilgen, F. J.; Lourens, L. J. Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub- Milankovitch cycles are yet poorly understood, not in the least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice-sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well ex- posed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct m-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that result from precession- induced variations in climate. A higher-frequency cyclicity is particular prominent within the marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of~115 kyr, cov- ering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two quarries located several km apart. Colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environ- mental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of variability at periods of ~11,~5.5 and~2 kyr. Their occurrence at times before the intensification of the North- ern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and moon. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25322929','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25322929">Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Princé, Karine; Zuckerberg, Benjamin 2015-02-01 Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29226555','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29226555">Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hoy, Sarah R; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A 2018-06-01 Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28805965','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28805965">The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas 2018-01-01 Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1715517C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1715517C">The Second International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE-2)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cowie, Greg; Hood, Raleigh 2015-04-01 The International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE) was one of the greatest international, interdisciplinary oceanographic research efforts of all time. Planning for the IIOE began in 1959 and the project officially continued through 1965, with forty-six research vessels participating under fourteen different flags. The IIOE motivated an unprecedented number of hydrographic surveys (and repeat surveys) over the course of the expedition covering the entire Indian Ocean basin. And it was an interdisciplinary endeavor that embraced physical oceanography, chemical oceanography, meteorology, marine biology, marine geology and geophysics. The end of 2015 will mark the 50th Anniversary of the completion of the IIOE. SCOR and the IOC are working to stimulate a new phase of coordinated international research focused on the Indian Ocean for a 5-year period beginning in late 2015 and continuing through 2020. The goal is to help to organize ongoing research and stimulate new initiatives in the 2015-2020 time frame as part of a larger expedition. Several International programs that have research ongoing or planned in the Indian Ocean during this time period and many countries are planning cruises in this time frame as well. These programs and national cruises will serve as a core for the new Indian Ocean research focus, which has been dubbed "IIOE-2." The overarching goal of the IIOE-2 is to advance our understanding of interactions between geological, oceanic and atmospheric processes that give rise to the complex physical dynamics of the Indian Ocean region, and to determine how those dynamics affect climate, extreme events, marine biogeochemical cycles, ecosystems and human populations. This understanding is required to predict the impacts of climate change, pollution, and increased fish harvesting on the Indian Ocean and its nations, as well as the influence of the Indian Ocean on other components of the Earth System. New understanding is also fundamental to policy makers for the development of sustainable coastal zone, ecosystem, and fisheries management strategies for the Indian Ocean. Other goals of IIOE-2 include helping to build research capacity and improving availability and accessibility of oceanographic data from the region. The IIOE-2 Science Plan is structured around six scientific themes. Each theme comprises a set of core questions fundamental to our need to understand the forcings, processes, and resultant variability of the Indian Ocean and to develop the capacity to predict how this variability will impact human populations in the future. In this presentation we will report on current efforts to motivate an IIOE-2 and we will present the draft science plan that has been commissioned by SCOR. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28264774','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28264774">Combined effects of climate and land management on watershed vegetation dynamics in an arid environment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Liu, Peilong; Hao, Lu; Pan, Cen; Zhou, Decheng; Liu, Yongqiang; Sun, Ge 2017-07-01 Leaf area index (LAI) is a key parameter to characterize vegetation dynamics and ecosystem structure that determines the ecosystem functions and services such as clean water supply and carbon sequestration in a watershed. However, linking LAI dynamics and environmental controls (i.e., coupling biosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere) remains challenging and such type of studies have rarely been done at a watershed scale due to data availability. The present study examined the spatial and temporal variations of LAI for five ecosystem types within a watershed with a complex topography in the Upper Heihe River Basin, a major inland river in the arid and semi-arid western China. We integrated remote sensing-based GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite) LAI products, interpolated climate data, watershed characteristics, and land management records for the period of 2001-2012. We determined the relationships among LAI, topography, air temperature and precipitation, and grazing history by five ecosystem types using several advanced statistical methods. We show that long-term mean LAI distribution had an obvious vertical pattern as controlled by precipitation and temperature in a hilly watershed. Overall, watershed-wide mean LAI had an increasing trend overtime for all ecosystem types during 2001-2012, presumably as a result of global warming and a wetting climate. However, the fluctuations of observed LAI at a pixel scale (1km) varied greatly across the watershed. We classified the vegetation changes within the watershed as 'Improved', 'Stabilized', and 'Degraded' according their respective LAI changes. We found that climate was not the only driver for temporal vegetation changes for all land cover types. Grazing partially contributed to the decline of LAI in some areas and masked the positive climate warming effects in other areas. Extreme weathers such as cold spells and droughts could substantially affect inter-annual variability of LAI dynamics. We concluded that temporal and spatial LAI dynamics were rather complex and were affected by both climate variations and human disturbances in the study basin. Future monitoring studies should focus on the functional interactions among vegetation dynamics, climate variations, land management, and human disturbances. Published by Elsevier B.V. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24634279','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24634279">Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier 2014-06-01 Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARH51003S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARH51003S">Stochastic dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice-albedo climate feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sudakov, Ivan Evolution of melt ponds on the Arctic sea surface is a complicated stochastic process. We suggest a low-order model with ice-albedo feedback which describes stochastic dynamics of melt ponds geometrical characteristics. The model is a stochastic dynamical system model of energy balance in the climate system. We describe the equilibria in this model. We conclude the transition in fractal dimension of melt ponds affects the shape of the sea ice albedo curve. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPIE10466E..65P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SPIE10466E..65P">Dynamics of the EEG of human brain in the gradient magnetic fields of geological faults in different geographical and climatic zones</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pobachenko, S. V.; Sokolov, M. V.; Grigoriev, P. E.; Vasilieva, I. V. 2017-11-01 There are presented the results of experimental studies of the dynamics of indices of the functional state of a person located within the zones characterized by anomalous parameters of spatial distribution of magnetic field vector values. It is shown that these geophysical modifications have a pronounced effect on the dynamics of electrical activity indices of the human brain, regardless of geographic and climatic conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cses.washington.edu/db/pubs/abstract825.shtml','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://cses.washington.edu/db/pubs/abstract825.shtml">Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J. 2014-01-01 The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16..229S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16..229S">Permafrost Hazards and Linear Infrastructure</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stanilovskaya, Julia; Sergeev, Dmitry 2014-05-01 The international experience of linear infrastructure planning, construction and exploitation in permafrost zone is being directly tied to the permafrost hazard assessment. That procedure should also consider the factors of climate impact and infrastructure protection. The current global climate change hotspots are currently polar and mountain areas. Temperature rise, precipitation and land ice conditions change, early springs occur more often. The big linear infrastructure objects cross the territories with different permafrost conditions which are sensitive to the changes in air temperature, hydrology, and snow accumulation which are connected to climatic dynamics. One of the most extensive linear structures built on permafrost worldwide are Trans Alaskan Pipeline (USA), Alaska Highway (Canada), Qinghai-Xizang Railway (China) and Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (Russia). Those are currently being influenced by the regional climate change and permafrost impact which may act differently from place to place. Thermokarst is deemed to be the most dangerous process for linear engineering structures. Its formation and development depend on the linear structure type: road or pipeline, elevated or buried one. Zonal climate and geocryological conditions are also of the determining importance here. All the projects are of the different age and some of them were implemented under different climatic conditions. The effects of permafrost thawing have been recorded every year since then. The exploration and transportation companies from different countries maintain the linear infrastructure from permafrost degradation in different ways. The highways in Alaska are in a good condition due to governmental expenses on annual reconstructions. The Chara-China Railroad in Russia is under non-standard condition due to intensive permafrost response. Standards for engineering and construction should be reviewed and updated to account for permafrost hazards caused by the climate change. Extra maintenance activity is needed for existence infrastructure to stay operable. Engineers should run climate models under the most pessimistic scenarios when planning new infrastructure projects. That would allow reducing the potential shortcomings related to the permafrost thawing. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-09-26/pdf/2013-23475.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2013-09-26/pdf/2013-23475.pdf">78 FR 59412 - Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental Scientific Affairs; Climate Action Report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2013-09-26 ... opportunity to submit comments to the draft 2014 Climate Action Report (CAR) on U.S. climate change actions... respond to reporting requirements under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The... summarizes major actions taken to address climate change, covering the period up to 2020, and contains... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28799245','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28799245">When and where to move: Dynamic occupancy models explain the range dynamics of a food nomadic bird under climate and land cover change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kalle, Riddhika; Ramesh, Tharmalingam; Downs, Colleen T 2018-01-01 Globally, long-term research is critical to monitor the responses of tropical species to climate and land cover change at the range scale. Citizen science surveys can reveal the long-term persistence of poorly known nomadic tropical birds occupying fragmented forest patches. We applied dynamic occupancy models to 13 years (2002-2014) of citizen science-driven presence/absence data on Cape parrot (Poicephalus robustus), a food nomadic bird endemic to South Africa. We modeled its underlying range dynamics as a function of resource distribution, and change in climate and land cover through the estimation of colonization and extinction patterns. The range occupancy of Cape parrot changed little over time (ψ = 0.75-0.83) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Yet, there was considerable regional variability in occupancy and detection probability increased over the years. Colonizations increased with warmer temperature and area of orchards, thus explaining their range shifts southeastwards in recent years. Although colonizations were higher in the presence of nests and yellowwood trees (Afrocarpus and Podocarpus spp.), the extinctions in small forest patches (≤227 ha) and during low precipitation (≤41 mm) are attributed to resource constraints and unsuitable climatic conditions. Loss of indigenous forest cover and artificial lake/water bodies increased extinction probabilities of Cape parrot. The land use matrix (fruit farms, gardens, and cultivations) surrounding forest patches provides alternative food sources, thereby facilitating spatiotemporal colonization and extinction in the human-modified matrix. Our models show that Cape parrots are vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions such as drought which is predicted to increase under climate change. Therefore, management of optimum sized high-quality forest patches is essential for long-term survival of Cape parrot populations. Our novel application of dynamic occupancy models to long-term citizen science monitoring data unfolds the complex relationships between the environmental dynamics and range fluctuations of this food nomadic species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y">Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry 2018-05-01 Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23966269','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23966269">Consistent response of vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in tropical mountain regions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; John, Robert; Joseph, Shijo 2014-01-01 Global climate change has emerged as a major driver of ecosystem change. Here, we present evidence for globally consistent responses in vegetation dynamics to recent climate change in the world's mountain ecosystems located in the pan-tropical belt (30°N-30°S). We analyzed decadal-scale trends and seasonal cycles of vegetation greenness using monthly time series of satellite greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and climate data for the period 1982-2006 for 47 mountain protected areas in five biodiversity hotspots. The time series of annual maximum NDVI for each of five continental regions shows mild greening trends followed by reversal to stronger browning trends around the mid-1990s. During the same period we found increasing trends in temperature but only marginal change in precipitation. The amplitude of the annual greenness cycle increased with time, and was strongly associated with the observed increase in temperature amplitude. We applied dynamic models with time-dependent regression parameters to study the time evolution of NDVI-climate relationships. We found that the relationship between vegetation greenness and temperature weakened over time or was negative. Such loss of positive temperature sensitivity has been documented in other regions as a response to temperature-induced moisture stress. We also used dynamic models to extract the trends in vegetation greenness that remain after accounting for the effects of temperature and precipitation. We found residual browning and greening trends in all regions, which indicate that factors other than temperature and precipitation also influence vegetation dynamics. Browning rates became progressively weaker with increase in elevation as indicated by quantile regression models. Tropical mountain vegetation is considered sensitive to climatic changes, so these consistent vegetation responses across widespread regions indicate persistent global-scale effects of climate warming and associated moisture stresses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B11H0541P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B11H0541P">Spatial-temporal controls on peatland carbon dynamics in the Hudson Bay Lowland, Canada: Reducing landscape-scale uncertainty in a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Packalen, M. S.; Finkelstein, S. A.; McLaughlin, J. 2015-12-01 Global peatlands currently store more than 650 Pg of carbon (C) that has accumulated over millennia, and contributed to a net climatic cooling. However, controls on spatial-temporal C dynamics may differ regionally. With at least 30 Pg C sequestered in the Hudson Bay Lowlands Canada (HBL), the vulnerability of this globally significant peat C reservoir remains uncertain under conditions of a changing climate and enhanced anthropogenic pressure. Here, we synthesize our current understanding of controls on C dynamics in the HBL using detailed peat records. Our data reveal that widespread bog-fen patterning across the HBL is related to the distribution of peat C in space and time, indicating that topographic and ecohydroclimatic controls are potentially important determinants of C mass accretion. We find that while peat age is closely related to timing of land emergence and peat depth in the HBL, considerable variation in the total C mass among sites of similar peat age suggests that additional factors may further explain trends in peat C dynamics. Among these factors, we find that temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration in the HBL account for up to half of the variation in the distribution of the peat C mass, whereby regions with warmer and wetter conditions support larger peat C masses. Moreover, we find that the rate of C accumulation is greatest for young fen peatlands developing during warmer mid-Holocene climates; but that long-term C stores are greatest in association with bog peatlands. Although nearly two-thirds of HBL peat C is of late Holocene age, most of the reconstructed potential C losses also occurred during the late Holocene, as previously accrued peat decayed. Our findings support the hypothesis that both climate and ecohydrological factors are important drivers of peat C dynamics in the HBL, alongside geophysical controls on the timing of peat initiation. As the HBL peat complex continues to rapidly expand, it may remain a globally significant C reservoir. However, conservative climate scenarios predict warmer and wetter conditions in the next century, beyond the range of past climate variability. Ongoing elucidation of controls on peat C dynamics may further inform our understanding of the response of the HBL peat C reservoir to future climate and resource management scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910899C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910899C">Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs 2017-04-01 The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080030342&hterms=water+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bchange','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080030342&hterms=water+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bchange">Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Seo, K.-W.; Wilson, C. R.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Chen, J. L.; Rodell M. 2006-01-01 Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916334M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916334M">Clay mineral distribution along the southern and western Svalbard continental margin in association with contouritic deposition: insights for environmental and oceanographic reconstruction</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Musco, Maria Elena; Caricchi, Chiara; Giulia Lucchi, Renata; Princivalle, Francesco; GIorgetti, Giovanna; Caburlotto, Andrea 2017-04-01 The Kveithola and Storfjorden troughs are two glacial depositional systems, situated South of the Svalbard Archipelago (North Western Barents Sea), that during the last glaciation (MIS-2) have hosted ice streams, which contributed to the build-up of the relative Trough Mouth Fans (TMFs) on the continental slope. The sedimentary record contained in TMFs provides several proxies that can be useful for reconstructing the ice-streams dynamics during glacial periods, the onset of deglaciation and the climatic variability during interglacials. The TMF slopes facing the two troughs have been investigated during several international oceanographic cruises: SVAIS onboard R/V BIO Hespérides; EGLACOM, onboard R/V OGS Explora; PNRA Project CORIBAR, onboard R/V Maria S. Marien; Eurofleets-2 PREPARED, onboard RV-G.O. Sars. For this study we have focused on XRD analyses on clay minerals, collected from seven cores, taken during these cruises, and XRF analyses have also been conducted on the whole length of the cores. Clay mineral assemblages are controlled by source rock composition, physical-chemical weathering, transport and depositional mechanisms. In polar areas clay mineral analysis can be used also for reconstructing sedimentary processes, associated with glacial and interglacial conditions. Moreover in the North western Barents Sea smectite is considered a good proxy for reconstructing the North Atlantic Current strength, giving thus additional indication on the palaeoceanographic conditions associated with climatic changes. Here we present a first correlation among these cores, aiming to describe the clay mineral distribution in response to the climatic variations that followed the Last Glacial Maximum and describe the changes in ice-stream dynamics and related oceanographic/environmental changes along the margin. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=learning+AND+development&pg=5&id=EJ970956','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=learning+AND+development&pg=5&id=EJ970956">Educational Experiences Associated with International Students' Learning, Development, and Positive Perceptions of Campus Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Glass, Chris R. 2012-01-01 This research project uses the constructive-developmental tradition, in the self-authorship framework of intercultural maturity (King & Baxter Magolda, 2005), to examine the extent to which 12 specific educational experiences may be associated with international undergraduates' learning, development, and perception of campus climate. The study… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26119088','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26119088">Deep soil carbon dynamics are driven more by soil type than by climate: a worldwide meta-analysis of radiocarbon profiles.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Mathieu, Jordane A; Hatté, Christine; Balesdent, Jérôme; Parent, Éric 2015-11-01 The response of soil carbon dynamics to climate and land-use change will affect both the future climate and the quality of ecosystems. Deep soil carbon (>20 cm) is the primary component of the soil carbon pool, but the dynamics of deep soil carbon remain poorly understood. Therefore, radiocarbon activity (Δ14C), which is a function of the age of carbon, may help to understand the rates of soil carbon biodegradation and stabilization. We analyzed the published 14C contents in 122 profiles of mineral soil that were well distributed in most of the large world biomes, except for the boreal zone. With a multivariate extension of a linear mixed-effects model whose inference was based on the parallel combination of two algorithms, the expectation-maximization (EM) and the Metropolis-Hasting algorithms, we expressed soil Δ14C profiles as a four-parameter function of depth. The four-parameter model produced insightful predictions of soil Δ14C as dependent on depth, soil type, climate, vegetation, land-use and date of sampling (R2=0.68). Further analysis with the model showed that the age of topsoil carbon was primarily affected by climate and cultivation. By contrast, the age of deep soil carbon was affected more by soil taxa than by climate and thus illustrated the strong dependence of soil carbon dynamics on other pedologic traits such as clay content and mineralogy. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53945','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/53945">Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg 2017-01-01 Aim There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPP51C1150D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPP51C1150D">Post-glacial Paleo-oceanographic and Paleo-climatic Conditions and Linkages Along the West Coast of Canada</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dallimore, A.; Enkin, R. J.; McKechnie, I. 2006-12-01 Along the west coast of Canada, our continuing studies of annually laminated marine sediments in anoxic fjords illustrate the changing environment as glaciers retreated from this area about 12 ka y BP. New data from mid-coastal British Columbia expands our knowledge of the interplay between climate and ocean dynamics in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and defines the evolution of modern climate conditions as ice receded from the coast, followed by the establishment of modern oceanographic and climatic conditions about 6,000 ky BP. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene record also marks dramatic changes in sea level, climate, coastal oceanographic dynamics and glacial sedimentary source and transport, with implications for the possibility of early human migration routes and glacial refugia. Changes in pre-historical aboriginal settlement sites and food sources also give indications of a dynamic Holocene land and seascape as modern conditions became established. Excellent chronological control is provided by complementary yet independent dating methods including radiocarbon dates on both plants and shells, identification of the Mazama Ash, varve counting and paleomagnetic/paleosecular variation correlations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..715J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NatCC...4..715J">Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal 2014-08-01 Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15197267','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15197267">Spatial synchrony of local populations has increased in association with the recent Northern Hemisphere climate trend.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Post, Eric; Forchhammer, Mads C 2004-06-22 According to ecological theory, populations whose dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation face increased extinction risk as environmental conditions become more synchronized spatially. This prediction is highly relevant to the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Recent empirical studies have indicated, for example, that large-scale climate synchronizes trophic interactions and population dynamics over broad spatial scales in freshwater and terrestrial systems. Here, we present an analysis of century-scale, spatially replicated data on local weather and the population dynamics of caribou in Greenland. Our results indicate that spatial autocorrelation in local weather has increased with large-scale climatic warming. This increase in spatial synchrony of environmental conditions has been matched, in turn, by an increase in the spatial synchrony of local caribou populations toward the end of the 20th century. Our results indicate that spatial synchrony in environmental conditions and the populations influenced by them are highly variable through time and can increase with climatic warming. We suggest that if future warming can increase population synchrony, it may also increase extinction risk. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..828S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..828S">Outward migration may alter population dynamics and income inequality</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Shayegh, Soheil 2017-11-01 Climate change impacts may drive affected populations to migrate. However, migration decisions in response to climate change could have broader effects on population dynamics in affected regions. Here, I model the effect of climate change on fertility rates, income inequality, and human capital accumulation in developing countries, focusing on the instrumental role of migration as a key adaptation mechanism. In particular, I investigate how climate-induced migration in developing countries will affect those who do not migrate. I find that holding all else constant, climate change raises the return on acquiring skills, because skilled individuals have greater migration opportunities than unskilled individuals. In response to this change in incentives, parents may choose to invest more in education and have fewer children. This may ultimately reduce local income inequality, partially offsetting some of the damages of climate change for low-income individuals who do not migrate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4412608','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4412608">Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Jennings, Julia A.; Gray, Clark L. 2014-01-01 Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century. PMID:25937689 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17739514','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17739514">Glacier Geophysics: Dynamic response of glaciers to changing climate may shed light on processes in the earth's interior.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kamb, B 1964-10-16 From physical measurements on glaciers and experimental studies of ice properties a framework of concept and theory is being built which bids fair to place glaciers among the more quantitatively understandable phenomena in the earth sciences. Measurements of flow velocity, deformation and stress, ice thickness and channel configuration, temperature, internal structure of theice, mass and energy balance, and response to meteorological variables all contribute to this understanding, as do still other measurements hardly discussed here, such as electrical properties, radioactive age measurements, and detailed studies of chemical and isotopic composition. The obvious goals of this work-the interpretation of past and present glacier fluctuations in terms of changes in world climate, and the prediction of glacier behavior-remain elusive, even though a good conceptual groundwork has been laid for dealing with the more tractable aspects of these problems. Intriguing recent discoveries have been made about such matters as the way in which glaciers react dynamically to changing conditions, the inter-relations between thermal regime and ice motion, the structural mechanisms of glacier flow, and the changes produced in ice by flow. One can recognize in these developments the possibility that concepts derived from the study of glacier flow may be applicable to phenomena of solid deformation deep in the earth. In this way glacier geophysics may have a useful impact beyond the study of glaciers themselves. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1411037-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1411037-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america">Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemblemore » during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1429906-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1429906-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america">Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble duringmore » the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ACP....14.9403V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ACP....14.9403V">Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Vihma, T.; Pirazzini, R.; Fer, I.; Renfrew, I. A.; Sedlar, J.; Tjernström, M.; Lüpkes, C.; Nygård, T.; Notz, D.; Weiss, J.; Marsan, D.; Cheng, B.; Birnbaum, G.; Gerland, S.; Chechin, D.; Gascard, J. C. 2014-09-01 The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007-2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice-ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave-turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice-ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.</div> </div> <a id="backToTop" href="#top"> Top </a> <footer> <nav> <ul class="links"> <li><a href="/sitemap.html">Site Map</a></li> <li><a href="/website-policies.html">Website Policies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.energy.gov/vulnerability-disclosure-policy" target="_blank">Vulnerability Disclosure Program</a></li> <li><a href="/contact.html">Contact Us</a></li> </ul> </nav> </footer> <script type="text/javascript"> </script> <script> /** * Function that tracks a click on an outbound link in Google Analytics. * This function takes a valid URL string as an argument, and uses that URL string * as the event label. */ var trackOutboundLink = function(url,collectionCode) { try { h = window.open(url); setTimeout(function() { ga('send', 'event', 'topic-page-click-through', collectionCode, url); }, 1000); } catch(err){} }; </script>  <script> (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga'); ga('create', 'UA-1122789-34', 'auto'); ga('send', 'pageview'); </script>  <script> showDiv('page_1') </script> </body> </html>

Sample records for internal climate dynamics