Sample records for internal model variability
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poppick, A. N.; McKinnon, K. A.; Dunn-Sigouin, E.; Deser, C.
2017-12-01
Initial condition climate model ensembles suggest that regional temperature trends can be highly variable on decadal timescales due to characteristics of internal climate variability. Accounting for trend uncertainty due to internal variability is therefore necessary to contextualize recent observed temperature changes. However, while the variability of trends in a climate model ensemble can be evaluated directly (as the spread across ensemble members), internal variability simulated by a climate model may be inconsistent with observations. Observation-based methods for assessing the role of internal variability on trend uncertainty are therefore required. Here, we use a statistical resampling approach to assess trend uncertainty due to internal variability in historical 50-year (1966-2015) winter near-surface air temperature trends over North America. We compare this estimate of trend uncertainty to simulated trend variability in the NCAR CESM1 Large Ensemble (LENS), finding that uncertainty in wintertime temperature trends over North America due to internal variability is largely overestimated by CESM1, on average by a factor of 32%. Our observation-based resampling approach is combined with the forced signal from LENS to produce an 'Observational Large Ensemble' (OLENS). The members of OLENS indicate a range of spatially coherent fields of temperature trends resulting from different sequences of internal variability consistent with observations. The smaller trend variability in OLENS suggests that uncertainty in the historical climate change signal in observations due to internal variability is less than suggested by LENS.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.
2017-12-01
There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.
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Analysis of model development strategies: predicting ventral hernia recurrence.
Holihan, Julie L; Li, Linda T; Askenasy, Erik P; Greenberg, Jacob A; Keith, Jerrod N; Martindale, Robert G; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K
2016-11-01
There have been many attempts to identify variables associated with ventral hernia recurrence; however, it is unclear which statistical modeling approach results in models with greatest internal and external validity. We aim to assess the predictive accuracy of models developed using five common variable selection strategies to determine variables associated with hernia recurrence. Two multicenter ventral hernia databases were used. Database 1 was randomly split into "development" and "internal validation" cohorts. Database 2 was designated "external validation". The dependent variable for model development was hernia recurrence. Five variable selection strategies were used: (1) "clinical"-variables considered clinically relevant, (2) "selective stepwise"-all variables with a P value <0.20 were assessed in a step-backward model, (3) "liberal stepwise"-all variables were included and step-backward regression was performed, (4) "restrictive internal resampling," and (5) "liberal internal resampling." Variables were included with P < 0.05 for the Restrictive model and P < 0.10 for the Liberal model. A time-to-event analysis using Cox regression was performed using these strategies. The predictive accuracy of the developed models was tested on the internal and external validation cohorts using Harrell's C-statistic where C > 0.70 was considered "reasonable". The recurrence rate was 32.9% (n = 173/526; median/range follow-up, 20/1-58 mo) for the development cohort, 36.0% (n = 95/264, median/range follow-up 20/1-61 mo) for the internal validation cohort, and 12.7% (n = 155/1224, median/range follow-up 9/1-50 mo) for the external validation cohort. Internal validation demonstrated reasonable predictive accuracy (C-statistics = 0.772, 0.760, 0.767, 0.757, 0.763), while on external validation, predictive accuracy dipped precipitously (C-statistic = 0.561, 0.557, 0.562, 0.553, 0.560). Predictive accuracy was equally adequate on internal validation among models; however, on external validation, all five models failed to demonstrate utility. Future studies should report multiple variable selection techniques and demonstrate predictive accuracy on external data sets for model validation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.
Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less
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On the use of internal state variables in thermoviscoplastic constitutive equations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Allen, D. H.; Beek, J. M.
1985-01-01
The general theory of internal state variables are reviewed to apply it to inelastic metals in use in high temperature environments. In this process, certain constraints and clarifications will be made regarding internal state variables. It is shown that the Helmholtz free energy can be utilized to construct constitutive equations which are appropriate for metallic superalloys. Internal state variables are shown to represent locally averaged measures of dislocation arrangement, dislocation density, and intergranular fracture. The internal state variable model is demonstrated to be a suitable framework for comparison of several currently proposed models for metals and can therefore be used to exhibit history dependence, nonlinearity, and rate as well as temperature sensitivity.
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The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.
2016-12-01
While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.
2017-12-01
The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.
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Evaluation of internal noise methods for Hotelling observers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Yani; Pham, Binh T.; Eckstein, Miguel P.
2005-04-01
Including internal noise in computer model observers to degrade model observer performance to human levels is a common method to allow for quantitatively comparisons of human and model performance. In this paper, we studied two different types of methods for injecting internal noise to Hotelling model observers. The first method adds internal noise to the output of the individual channels: a) Independent non-uniform channel noise, b) Independent uniform channel noise. The second method adds internal noise to the decision variable arising from the combination of channel responses: a) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's standard deviation due to the external noise, b) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's variance caused by the external noise. We tested the square window Hotelling observer (HO), channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), and Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling observer (LGHO). The studied task was detection of a filling defect of varying size/shape in one of four simulated arterial segment locations with real x-ray angiography backgrounds. Results show that the internal noise method that leads to the best prediction of human performance differs across the studied models observers. The CHO model best predicts human observer performance with the channel internal noise. The HO and LGHO best predict human observer performance with the decision variable internal noise. These results might help explain why previous studies have found different results on the ability of each Hotelling model to predict human performance. Finally, the present results might guide researchers with the choice of method to include internal noise into their Hotelling models.
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Bounds on internal state variables in viscoplasticity
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Freed, Alan D.
1993-01-01
A typical viscoplastic model will introduce up to three types of internal state variables in order to properly describe transient material behavior; they are as follows: the back stress, the yield stress, and the drag strength. Different models employ different combinations of these internal variables--their selection and description of evolution being largely dependent on application and material selection. Under steady-state conditions, the internal variables cease to evolve and therefore become related to the external variables (stress and temperature) through simple functional relationships. A physically motivated hypothesis is presented that links the kinetic equation of viscoplasticity with that of creep under steady-state conditions. From this hypothesis one determines how the internal variables relate to one another at steady state, but most importantly, one obtains bounds on the magnitudes of stress and back stress, and on the yield stress and drag strength.
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Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.
2016-12-01
Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry
2018-05-01
Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.
2017-12-01
There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.
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A viscoplastic model with application to LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Freed, A. D.; Walker, K. P.
1990-01-01
A viscoplastic model for class M (metal-like behavior) materials is presented. One novel feature is its use of internal variables to change the stress exponent of creep (where n is approximately = 5) to that of natural creep (where n = 3), in accordance with experimental observations. Another feature is the introduction of a coupling in the evolution equations of the kinematic and isotropic internal variables, making thermal recovery of the kinematic variable implicit. These features enable the viscoplastic model to reduce to that of steady-state creep in closed form. In addition, the hardening parameters associated with the two internal state variables (one scalar-valued, the other tensor-valued) are considered to be functions of state, instead of being taken as constant-valued. This feature enables each internal variable to represent a much wider spectrum of internal states for the material. The model is applied to a LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt, which is being considered as a thermal energy storage material for space-based solar dynamic power systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.
2017-12-01
Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Abbas, Khaled A.; Fattah, Nabil Abdel; Reda, Hala R.
2003-01-01
This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilize two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deser, C.
2017-12-01
Natural climate variability occurs over a wide range of time and space scales as a result of processes intrinsic to the atmosphere, the ocean, and their coupled interactions. Such internally generated climate fluctuations pose significant challenges for the identification of externally forced climate signals such as those driven by volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. This challenge is exacerbated for regional climate responses evaluated from short (< 50 years) data records. The limited duration of the observations also places strong constraints on how well the spatial and temporal characteristics of natural climate variability are known, especially on multi-decadal time scales. The observational constraints, in turn, pose challenges for evaluation of climate models, including their representation of internal variability and assessing the accuracy of their responses to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings. A promising new approach to climate model assessment is the advent of large (10-100 member) "initial-condition" ensembles of climate change simulations with individual models. Such ensembles allow for accurate determination, and straightforward separation, of externally forced climate signals and internal climate variability on regional scales. The range of climate trajectories in a given model ensemble results from the fact that each simulation represents a particular sequence of internal variability superimposed upon a common forced response. This makes clear that nature's single realization is only one of many that could have unfolded. This perspective leads to a rethinking of approaches to climate model evaluation that incorporate observational uncertainty due to limited sampling of internal variability. Illustrative examples across a range of well-known climate phenomena including ENSO, volcanic eruptions, and anthropogenic climate change will be discussed.
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Internal Interdecadal Variability in CMIP5 Control Simulations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cheung, A. H.; Mann, M. E.; Frankcombe, L. M.; England, M. H.; Steinman, B. A.; Miller, S. K.
2015-12-01
Here we make use of control simulations from the CMIP5 models to quantify the amplitude of the interdecadal internal variability component in Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature. We compare against estimates derived from observations using a semi-empirical approach wherein the forced component as estimated using CMIP5 historical simulations is removed to yield an estimate of the residual, internal variability. While the observational estimates are largely consistent with those derived from the control simulations for both basins and the Northern Hemisphere, they lie in the upper range of the model distributions, suggesting the possibility of differences between the amplitudes of observed and modeled variability. We comment on some possible reasons for the disparity.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook
2018-06-01
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.
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Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang
2016-01-01
Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.
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Predictions of Poisson's ratio in cross-ply laminates containing matrix cracks and delaminations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Nottorf, Eric W.
1989-01-01
A damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites has been developed for the combined damage modes of matrix cracks and delaminations. The model is based on the concept of continuum damage mechanics and uses second-order tensor valued internal state variables to represent each mode of damage. The internal state variables are defined as the local volume average of the relative crack face displacements. Since the local volume for delaminations is specified at the laminate level, the constitutive model takes the form of laminate analysis equations modified by the internal state variables. Model implementation is demonstrated for the laminate engineering modulus E(x) and Poisson's ratio nu(xy) of quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminates. The model predictions are in close agreement to experimental results obtained for graphite/epoxy laminates.
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Nonlinear waves in solids with slow dynamics: an internal-variable model.
Berjamin, H; Favrie, N; Lombard, B; Chiavassa, G
2017-05-01
In heterogeneous solids such as rocks and concrete, the speed of sound diminishes with the strain amplitude of a dynamic loading (softening). This decrease, known as 'slow dynamics', occurs at time scales larger than the period of the forcing. Also, hysteresis is observed in the steady-state response. The phenomenological model by Vakhnenko et al. (2004 Phys. Rev. E 70, 015602. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.015602)) is based on a variable that describes the softening of the material. However, this model is one dimensional and it is not thermodynamically admissible. In the present article, a three-dimensional model is derived in the framework of the finite-strain theory. An internal variable that describes the softening of the material is introduced, as well as an expression of the specific internal energy. A mechanical constitutive law is deduced from the Clausius-Duhem inequality. Moreover, a family of evolution equations for the internal variable is proposed. Here, an evolution equation with one relaxation time is chosen. By construction, this new model of the continuum is thermodynamically admissible and dissipative (inelastic). In the case of small uniaxial deformations, it is shown analytically that the model reproduces qualitatively the main features of real experiments.
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Within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 2 (AQMEII2) project, this part II paper performs a multi-model assessment of major column abundances of gases, radiation, aerosol, and cloud variables for 2006 and 2010 simulations with three on...
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Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.
2018-04-01
This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.
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An internal variable constitutive model for the large deformation of metals at high temperatures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brown, Stuart; Anand, Lallit
1988-01-01
The advent of large deformation finite element methodologies is beginning to permit the numerical simulation of hot working processes whose design until recently has been based on prior industrial experience. Proper application of such finite element techniques requires realistic constitutive equations which more accurately model material behavior during hot working. A simple constitutive model for hot working is the single scalar internal variable model for isotropic thermal elastoplasticity proposed by Anand. The model is recalled and the specific scalar functions, for the equivalent plastic strain rate and the evolution equation for the internal variable, presented are slight modifications of those proposed by Anand. The modified functions are better able to represent high temperature material behavior. The monotonic constant true strain rate and strain rate jump compression experiments on a 2 percent silicon iron is briefly described. The model is implemented in the general purpose finite element program ABAQUS.
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Nev, Olga A; van den Berg, Hugo A
2017-01-01
Variable-Internal-Stores models of microbial metabolism and growth have proven to be invaluable in accounting for changes in cellular composition as microbial cells adapt to varying conditions of nutrient availability. Here, such a model is extended with explicit allocation of molecular building blocks among various types of catalytic machinery. Such an extension allows a reconstruction of the regulatory rules employed by the cell as it adapts its physiology to changing environmental conditions. Moreover, the extension proposed here creates a link between classic models of microbial growth and analyses based on detailed transcriptomics and proteomics data sets. We ascertain the compatibility between the extended Variable-Internal-Stores model and the classic models, demonstrate its behaviour by means of simulations, and provide a detailed treatment of the uniqueness and the stability of its equilibrium point as a function of the availabilities of the various nutrients.
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Nonlinear waves in solids with slow dynamics: an internal-variable model
Berjamin, H.; Favrie, N.; Chiavassa, G.
2017-01-01
In heterogeneous solids such as rocks and concrete, the speed of sound diminishes with the strain amplitude of a dynamic loading (softening). This decrease, known as ‘slow dynamics’, occurs at time scales larger than the period of the forcing. Also, hysteresis is observed in the steady-state response. The phenomenological model by Vakhnenko et al. (2004 Phys. Rev. E 70, 015602. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.015602)) is based on a variable that describes the softening of the material. However, this model is one dimensional and it is not thermodynamically admissible. In the present article, a three-dimensional model is derived in the framework of the finite-strain theory. An internal variable that describes the softening of the material is introduced, as well as an expression of the specific internal energy. A mechanical constitutive law is deduced from the Clausius–Duhem inequality. Moreover, a family of evolution equations for the internal variable is proposed. Here, an evolution equation with one relaxation time is chosen. By construction, this new model of the continuum is thermodynamically admissible and dissipative (inelastic). In the case of small uniaxial deformations, it is shown analytically that the model reproduces qualitatively the main features of real experiments. PMID:28588408
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kravtsov, Sergey
2017-06-01
Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.
Plain Language SummaryGlobal and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813442D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1813442D"><span>Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4938Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4938Z"><span>Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the initialization procedures tested. It also allows us determine the upper limit of improvement that can be expected if more sophisticated initialization methods are used in decadal prediction simulations and if models have an internal variability agreeing with the observed one. Furthermore, since pseudo-observations are available everywhere at any time step, we also analyse the differences between simulations initialized with a complete dataset of pseudo-observations and the ones for which pseudo-observations data are not assimilated everywhere. In a second step, simulations are realized in a realistic framework, i.e. through the use of actual available observations. The same data assimilation methods are tested in order to check if more sophisticated methods can improve the reliability and the accuracy of decadal prediction simulations, even if they are performed with models that overestimate the internal variability of the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5141387','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5141387"><span>Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4638S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4638S"><span>Can the super model (SUMO) method improve hydrological simulations? Exploratory tests with the GR hydrological models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Errors made by hydrological models may come from a problem in parameter estimation, uncertainty on observed measurements, numerical problems and from the model conceptualization that simplifies the reality. Here we focus on this last issue of hydrological modeling. One of the solutions to reduce structural uncertainty is to use a multimodel method, taking advantage of the great number and the variability of existing hydrological models. In particular, because different models are not similarly good in all situations, using multimodel approaches can improve the robustness of modeled outputs. Traditionally, in hydrology, multimodel methods are based on the output of the model (the simulated flow series). The aim of this poster is to introduce a different approach based on the internal variables of the models. The method is inspired by the SUper MOdel (SUMO, van den Berge et al., 2011) developed for climatology. The idea of the SUMO method is to correct the internal variables of a model taking into account the values of the internal variables of (an)other model(s). This correction is made bilaterally between the different models. The ensemble of the different models constitutes a super model in which all the models exchange information on their internal variables with each other at each time step. Due to this continuity in the exchanges, this multimodel algorithm is more dynamic than traditional multimodel methods. The method will be first tested using two GR4J models (in a state-space representation) with different parameterizations. The results will be presented and compared to traditional multimodel methods that will serve as benchmarks. In the future, other rainfall-runoff models will be used in the super model. References van den Berge, L. A., Selten, F. M., Wiegerinck, W., and Duane, G. S. (2011). A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning. Earth System Dynamics, 2(1) :161-177.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.4202W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.4202W"><span>NAO and its relationship with the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature in CMIP5 simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Xiaofan; Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Liu, Ting</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the most prominent teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere and has recently been found to be both an internal source and useful predictor of the multidecadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT). In this study, we examine how well the variability of the NAO and NHT are reproduced in historical simulations generated by the 40 models that constitute Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). All of the models are able to capture the basic characteristics of the interannual NAO pattern reasonably well, whereas the simulated decadal NAO patterns show less consistency with the observations. The NAO fluctuations over multidecadal time scales are underestimated by almost all models. Regarding the NHT multidecadal variability, the models generally represent the externally forced variations well but tend to underestimate the internal NHT. With respect to the performance of the models in reproducing the NAO-NHT relationship, 14 models capture the observed decadal lead of the NAO, and model discrepancies in the representation of this linkage are derived mainly from their different interpretation of the underlying physical processes associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This study suggests that one way to improve the simulation of the multidecadal variability of the internal NHT lies in better simulation of the multidecadal variability of the NAO and its delayed effect on the NHT variability via slow ocean processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1211076-electrochemical-state-internal-variables-estimation-using-reduced-order-physics-based-model-lithium-ion-cell-extended-kalman-filter','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1211076-electrochemical-state-internal-variables-estimation-using-reduced-order-physics-based-model-lithium-ion-cell-extended-kalman-filter"><span>Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS</p> <p>2015-03-15</p> <p>This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables.more » (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20638731','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20638731"><span>Proposal of a socio-cognitive-behavioral structural equation model of internalized stigma in people with severe and persistent mental illness.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Muñoz, Manuel; Sanz, María; Pérez-Santos, Eloísa; Quiroga, María de Los Ángeles</p> <p>2011-04-30</p> <p>The social stigma of mental illness has received much attention in recent years and its effects on diverse variables such as psychiatric symptoms, social functioning, self-esteem, self-efficacy, quality of life, and social integration are well established. However, internalized stigma in people with severe and persistent mental illness has not received the same attention. The aim of the present work was to study the relationships between the principal variables involved in the functioning of internalized stigma (sociodemographic and clinical variables, social stigma, psychosocial functioning, recovery expectations, empowerment, and discrimination experiences) in a sample of people with severe and persistent mental illness (N=108). The main characteristics of the sample and the differences between groups with high and low internalized stigma were analyzed, a correlation analysis of the variables was performed, and a structural equation model, integrating variables of social, cognitive, and behavioral content, was proposed and tested. The results indicate the relationships among social stigma, discrimination experiences, recovery expectation, and internalized stigma and their role in the psychosocial and behavioral outcomes in schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3651F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3651F"><span>ENSO-related Interannual Variability of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation: Assessment and Projected Changes in CMIP5 Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Frederiksen, Carsten; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu; Sisson, Janice</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>ENSO variability is an important driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation. Understanding the observed and projected changes in ENSO variability is therefore important to understanding changes in Australian surface climate. Using a recently developed methodology (Zheng et al., 2009), the coherent patterns, or modes, of ENSO-related variability in the SH atmospheric circulation can be separated from modes that are related to intraseasonal variability or to changes in radiative forcings. Under this methodology, the seasonal mean SH 500 hPa geopotential height is considered to consist of three components. These are: (1) an intraseasonal component related to internal dynamics on intraseasonal time scales; (2) a slow-internal component related to internal dynamics on slowly varying (interannual or longer) time scales, including ENSO; and (3) a slow-external component related to external (i.e. radiative) forcings. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to represent the modes of variability of the interannual covariance of the three components. An assessment is first made of the modes in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset for the SH summer and winter seasons in the 20th century. In reanalysis data, two EOFs of the slow component (which includes the slow-internal and slow-external components) have been found to be related to ENSO variability (Frederiksen and Zheng, 2007). In SH summer, the CMIP5 models reproduce the leading ENSO mode very well when the structures of the EOF and the associated SST, and associated variance are considered. There is substantial improvement in this mode when compared with the CMIP3 models shown in Grainger et al. (2012). However, the second ENSO mode in SH summer has a poorly reproduced EOF structure in the CMIP5 models, and the associated variance is generally underestimated. In SH winter, the performance of the CMIP5 models in reproducing the structure and variance is similar for both ENSO modes, with the associated variance being generally underestimated. Projected changes in the modes in the 21st century are then investigated using ensembles of CMIP5 models that reproduce well the 20th century slow modes. The slow-internal and slow-external components are examined separately, allowing the projected changes in the response to ENSO variability to be separated from the response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. By using several ensembles, the model-dependency of the projected changes in the ENSO-related slow-internal modes is examined. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2012: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and Projections. Climate Dyn., in press. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29686817','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29686817"><span>The Role of Individual and Social Variables in Predicting Body Dissatisfaction and Eating Disorder Symptoms among Iranian Adolescent Girls: An Expanding of the Tripartite Influence Mode.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shahyad, Shima; Pakdaman, Shahla; Shokri, Omid; Saadat, Seyed Hassan</p> <p>2018-01-12</p> <p>The aim of the present study was to examine the causal relationships between psychological and social factors, being independent variables and body image dissatisfaction plus symptoms of eating disorders as dependent variables through the mediation of social comparison and thin-ideal internalization. To conduct the study, 477 high-school students from Tehran were recruited by method of cluster sampling. Next, they filled out Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (RSES), Physical Appearance Comparison Scale (PACS), Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), Appearance Perfectionism Scale (APS), Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI), Multidimensional Body Self Relations Questionnaire (MBSRQ) and Sociocultural Attitudes towards Appearance Questionnaire (SATAQ-4). In the end, collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Findings showed that the assumed model perfectly fitted the data after modification and as a result, all the path-coefficients of latent variables (except for the path between self-esteem and thin-ideal internalization) were statistically significant (p>0.05). Also, in this model, 75% of scores' distribution of body dissatisfaction was explained through psychological variables, socio-cultural variables, social comparison and internalization of the thin ideal. The results of the present study provid experimental basis for the confirmation of proposed causal model. The combination of psychological, social and cultural variables could efficiently predict body image dissatisfaction of young girls in Iran.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=parenting+AND+style+AND+mental+AND+health&pg=2&id=EJ1073655','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=parenting+AND+style+AND+mental+AND+health&pg=2&id=EJ1073655"><span>Relations between Internalizing and Externalizing Problems in Early Childhood</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Stone, Lisanne L.; Otten, Roy; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Kuijpers, Rowella C. W. M.; Janssens, Jan M. A. M.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Background: Childhood internalizing and externalizing problems are closely related and often co-occur. Directional models have been employed to test how these problems are related, while few studies have tested a third variables model. Objective: This study investigates whether internalizing and externalizing problems are reciprocally or…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45..916L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45..916L"><span>Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890006812','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890006812"><span>Thermoviscoplastic model with application to copper</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Freed, Alan D.</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>A viscoplastic model is developed which is applicable to anisothermal, cyclic, and multiaxial loading conditions. Three internal state variables are used in the model; one to account for kinematic effects, and the other two to account for isotropic effects. One of the isotropic variables is a measure of yield strength, while the other is a measure of limit strength. Each internal state variable evolves through a process of competition between strain hardening and recovery. There is no explicit coupling between dynamic and thermal recovery in any evolutionary equation, which is a useful simplification in the development of the model. The thermodynamic condition of intrinsic dissipation constrains the thermal recovery function of the model. Application of the model is made to copper, and cyclic experiments under isothermal, thermomechanical, and nonproportional loading conditions are considered. Correlations and predictions of the model are representative of observed material behavior.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H21F1436K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H21F1436K"><span>Relative controls of external and internal variability on time-variable transit time distributions, and the importance of StorAge Selection function approaches</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, M.; Pangle, L. A.; Cardoso, C.; Lora, M.; Meira, A.; Volkmann, T. H. M.; Wang, Y.; Harman, C. J.; Troch, P. A. A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Transit time distributions (TTDs) are an efficient way of characterizing complex transport dynamics of a hydrologic system. Time-invariant TTD has been studied extensively, but TTDs are time-varying under unsteady hydrologic systems due to both external variability (e.g., time-variability in fluxes), and internal variability (e.g., time-varying flow pathways). The use of "flow-weighted time" has been suggested to account for the effect of external variability on TTDs, but neglects the role of internal variability. Recently, to account both types of variability, StorAge Selection (SAS) function approaches were developed. One of these approaches enables the transport characteristics of a system - how the different aged water in the storage is sampled by the outflow - to be parameterized by time-variable probability distribution called the rank SAS (rSAS) function, and uses it directly to determine the time-variable TTDs resulting from a given timeseries of fluxes in and out of a system. Unlike TTDs, the form of the rSAS function varies only due to changes in flow pathways, but is not affected by the timing of fluxes alone. However, the relation between physical mechanisms and the time-varying rSAS functions are not well understood. In this study, relative effects of internal and external variability on the TTDs are examined using observations from a homogeneously packed 1 m3 sloping soil lysimeter. The observations suggest the importance of internal variability on TTDs, and reinforce the need to account for this variability using time-variable rSAS functions. Furthermore, the relative usefulness of two other formulations of SAS functions and the mortality rate (which plays a similar role to SAS functions in the McKendrick-von Foerster model of age-structured population dynamics) are also discussed. Finally, numerical modeling is used to explore the role of internal and external variability for hydrologic systems with diverse geomorphic and climate characteristics. This works will give an insight that which approach (or SAS function) is preferable under different conditions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_2 --> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...35H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...35H"><span>Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140008676','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140008676"><span>Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shindell, Drew Todd; Racherla, Pavan; Milly, George Peter</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120009950','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120009950"><span>Computational Implementation of a Thermodynamically Based Work Potential Model For Progressive Microdamage and Transverse Cracking in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Collier, Craig S.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>A continuum-level, dual internal state variable, thermodynamically based, work potential model, Schapery Theory, is used capture the effects of two matrix damage mechanisms in a fiber-reinforced laminated composite: microdamage and transverse cracking. Matrix microdamage accrues primarily in the form of shear microcracks between the fibers of the composite. Whereas, larger transverse matrix cracks typically span the thickness of a lamina and run parallel to the fibers. Schapery Theory uses the energy potential required to advance structural changes, associated with the damage mechanisms, to govern damage growth through a set of internal state variables. These state variables are used to quantify the stiffness degradation resulting from damage growth. The transverse and shear stiffness of the lamina are related to the internal state variables through a set of measurable damage functions. Additionally, the damage variables for a given strain state can be calculated from a set of evolution equations. These evolution equations and damage functions are implemented into the finite element method and used to govern the constitutive response of the material points in the model. Additionally, an axial failure criterion is included in the model. The response of a center-notched, buffer strip-stiffened panel subjected to uniaxial tension is investigated and results are compared to experiment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ASCMO...3...33P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ASCMO...3...33P"><span>Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the important characteristics of internal variability, can result in more accurate uncertainty statements about trends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950046568&hterms=Jun+Make&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DJun%2BMake','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950046568&hterms=Jun+Make&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DJun%2BMake"><span>The Sun as a variable star: Solar and stellar irradiance variations; Colloquium of the International Astronomical Union, 143rd, Boulder, CO, Jun. 20-25, 1993</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pap, Judit M. (Editor); Froehlich, Claus (Editor); Hudson, Hugh S. (Editor); Tobiska, W. Kent (Editor)</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>Variations in solar and stellar irradiances have long been of interest. An International Astronomical Union (IAU) colloquium reviewed such relevant subjects as observations, theoretical interpretations, and empirical and physical models, with a special emphasis on climatic impact of solar irradiance variability. Specific topics discussed included: (1) General Reviews on Observations of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (2) Observational Programs for Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (3) Variability of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Related to the Network, Active Regions (Sunspots and Plages), and Large-Scale Magnetic Structures; (4) Empirical Models of Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Variability; (5) Solar and Stellar Oscillations, Irradiance Variations and their Interpretations; and (6) The Response of the Earth's Atmosphere to Solar Irradiance Variations and Sun-Climate Connections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21423821','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21423821"><span>Processes of Internal and International Migration from Chitwan, Nepal.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bohra, Pratikshya; Massey, Douglas S</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>In this study we examine which factors predict internal and international migration from Chitwan, a flat valley located in the South-Central region of Nepal, seeking to measure the effect of theoretically specified variables such as human capital, social capital, physical capital, and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions while controlling for demographic variables. We use data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) to estimate a series of discrete time event history models of first and repeat migration to three competing destinations: other locations within Chitwan, other districts within Nepal, and places outside of Nepal. Results support hypotheses derived from neoclassical economics, the theory of new economics of migration, social capital theory, and cumulative causation theory. Our results underscore the need for a synthetic theoretical model that incorporates factors operating at the individual, household, and community levels. The use of multiple explanatory models yields a clearer picture of the forces driving internal and international migration from rural districts in developing nations such as Nepal.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3060790','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3060790"><span>Processes of Internal and International Migration from Chitwan, Nepal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bohra, Pratikshya; Massey, Douglas S.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>In this study we examine which factors predict internal and international migration from Chitwan, a flat valley located in the South-Central region of Nepal, seeking to measure the effect of theoretically specified variables such as human capital, social capital, physical capital, and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions while controlling for demographic variables. We use data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) to estimate a series of discrete time event history models of first and repeat migration to three competing destinations: other locations within Chitwan, other districts within Nepal, and places outside of Nepal. Results support hypotheses derived from neoclassical economics, the theory of new economics of migration, social capital theory, and cumulative causation theory. Our results underscore the need for a synthetic theoretical model that incorporates factors operating at the individual, household, and community levels. The use of multiple explanatory models yields a clearer picture of the forces driving internal and international migration from rural districts in developing nations such as Nepal. PMID:21423821</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25752059','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25752059"><span>[Spectral quantitative analysis by nonlinear partial least squares based on neural network internal model for flue gas of thermal power plant].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cao, Hui; Li, Yao-Jiang; Zhou, Yan; Wang, Yan-Xia</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>To deal with nonlinear characteristics of spectra data for the thermal power plant flue, a nonlinear partial least square (PLS) analysis method with internal model based on neural network is adopted in the paper. The latent variables of the independent variables and the dependent variables are extracted by PLS regression firstly, and then they are used as the inputs and outputs of neural network respectively to build the nonlinear internal model by train process. For spectra data of flue gases of the thermal power plant, PLS, the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of back propagation neural network (BP-NPLS), the non-linear PLS with the internal model of radial basis function neural network (RBF-NPLS) and the nonlinear PLS with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system (ANFIS-NPLS) are compared. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of sulfur dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 16.96%, 16.60% and 19.55% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitric oxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 8.60%, 8.47% and 10.09% than that of PLS, respectively. The RMSEP of nitrogen dioxide of BP-NPLS, RBF-NPLS and ANFIS-NPLS are reduced by 2.11%, 3.91% and 3.97% than that of PLS, respectively. Experimental results show that the nonlinear PLS is more suitable for the quantitative analysis of glue gas than PLS. Moreover, by using neural network function which can realize high approximation of nonlinear characteristics, the nonlinear partial least squares method with internal model mentioned in this paper have well predictive capabilities and robustness, and could deal with the limitations of nonlinear partial least squares method with other internal model such as polynomial and spline functions themselves under a certain extent. ANFIS-NPLS has the best performance with the internal model of adaptive fuzzy inference system having ability to learn more and reduce the residuals effectively. Hence, ANFIS-NPLS is an accurate and useful quantitative thermal power plant flue gas analysis method.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20713736','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20713736"><span>Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A</p> <p>2010-08-24</p> <p>The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4745A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4745A"><span>Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..768A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..768A"><span>Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815843H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1815843H"><span>Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias is always positive. It can be especially high with STANOVA. In the most critical configurations, when the number of members available for each modeling chain is small (< 3) and when internal variability explains most of total uncertainty variance (75% or more), the overestimation is higher than 100% of the true model uncertainty variance. The bias can be considerably reduced with a time series ANOVA approach, owing to the multiple time steps accounted for. The longer the transient time period used for the analysis, the larger the reduction. When a quasi-ergodic ANOVA approach is applied to decadal data for the whole 1980-2100 period, the bias is reduced by a factor 2.5 to 20 depending on the projection lead time. In all cases, the bias is likely to be not negligible for a large number of climate impact studies resulting in a likely large overestimation of the contribution of model uncertainty to total variance. For both approaches, the robustness of all uncertainty estimates is higher when more members are available, when internal variability is smaller and/or the response-to-uncertainty ratio is higher. QEANOVA estimates are much more robust than STANOVA ones: QEANOVA simulated confidence intervals are roughly 3 to 5 times smaller than STANOVA ones. Excepted for STANOVA when less than 3 members is available, the robustness is rather high for total uncertainty and moderate for internal variability estimates. For model uncertainty or response-to-uncertainty ratio estimates, the robustness is conversely low for QEANOVA to very low for STANOVA. In the most critical configurations (small number of member, large internal variability), large over- or underestimation of uncertainty components is very thus likely. To propose relevant uncertainty analyses and avoid misleading interpretations, estimates of uncertainty components should be therefore bias corrected and ideally come with estimates of their robustness. This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/). Hingray, B., Saïd, M., 2014. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimodel multireplicate ensemble of climate projections. J.Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00629.1 Hingray, B., Blanchet, J. (revision) Unbiased estimators for uncertainty components in transient climate projections. J. Climate Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Vidal, J.P. (revision) Robustness of uncertainty components estimates in climate projections. J.Climate</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED323302.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED323302.pdf"><span>Technological Adoption and Organizational Adaptation: Developing a Model for Human Resource Management in an International Business Environment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Gattiker, Urs E.</p> <p></p> <p>A model of technological training has two dimensions: level of cultural stability and employee's level of cognitive ability. Each dimension has two variables. The variables of cultural stability are (1) technological adoption and organizational adaptation and (2) structure of work and work processes. For cognitive ability, the variables are…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO44A3119H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO44A3119H"><span>Forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Halloran, P. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Hall, I. R.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Paul R. Halloran, David J. Reynolds, Ian R. Hall and James D. Scourse Multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) plays a first order role in determining regional atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, with major climatic consequences. These regional climate impacts range from drought in the Sahel and South America, though increased hurricane activity and temperature extremes, to modified monsoonal rainfall. Multidecadal Atlantic SST variability could arise through internal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g., Knight et al., 2006), or through externally forced change (e.g. Booth et al., 2012). It is critical that we know whether internal or external forcing dominates if we are to provide useful near-term climate projections in the Atlantic region. A persuasive argument that internal variability plays an important role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is that periodic SST variability has been observed throughout much of the last millennium (Mann et al., 2009), and the hypothesized external forcing of historical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Booth et al., 2012) is largely anthropogenic in origin. Here we combine the first annually-resolved millennial marine reconstruction with multi-model analysis, to show that the Atlantic SST variability of the last millennium can be explained by a combination of direct volcanic forcing, and indirect, forced, AMOC variability. Our results indicate that whilst climate models capture the timing of both the directly forced SST and forced AMOC-mediated SST variability, the models fail to capture the magnitude of the forced AMOC change. Does this mean that models underestimate the 21st century reduction in AMOC strength? J. Knight, C. Folland and A. Scaife., Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GRL, 2006 B.B.B Booth, N. Dunstone, P.R. Halloran et al., Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 2012 M.E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 2009</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912941R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1912941R"><span>How predictable are equatorial Atlantic surface winds?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model (GCM) as well as experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the extent to which sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the variability and predictability of monthly mean surface winds in the equatorial Atlantic. In the SINTEX-F experiments, a control experiment with prescribed observed SST for the period 1982-2014 is modified by inserting climatological values in certain regions, thereby eliminating SST anomalies. When SSTs are set to climatology in the tropical Atlantic only (30S to 30N), surface wind variability over the equatorial Atlantic (5S-5N) decreases by about 40% in April-May-June (AMJ). This suggests that about 60% of surface wind variability is due to either internal atmospheric variability or SSTs anomalies outside the tropical Atlantic. A further experiment with climatological SSTs in the equatorial Pacific indicates that another 10% of variability in AMJ may be due to remote influences from that basin. Experiments from the CMIP5 archive, in which climatological SSTs are prescribed globally, tend to confirm the results from SINTEX-F but show a wide spread. In some models, the equatorial Atlantic surface wind variability decreases by more than 90%, while in others it even increases. Overall, the results suggest that about 50-60% of surface wind variance in AMJ is predictable, while the rest is due to internal atmospheric variability. Other months show significantly lower predictability. The relatively strong internal variability as well as the influence of remote SSTs suggest a limited role for coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in equatorial Atlantic variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512161M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512161M"><span>The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maraun, Douglas</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26365438','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26365438"><span>Diagnostic Value of Selected Echocardiographic Variables to Identify Pulmonary Hypertension in Dogs with Myxomatous Mitral Valve Disease.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tidholm, A; Höglund, K; Häggström, J; Ljungvall, I</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is commonly associated with myxomatous mitral valve disease (MMVD). Because dogs with PH present without measureable tricuspid regurgitation (TR), it would be useful to investigate echocardiographic variables that can identify PH. To investigate associations between estimated systolic TR pressure gradient (TRPG) and dog characteristics and selected echocardiographic variables. 156 privately owned dogs. Prospective observational study comparing the estimations of TRPG with dog characteristics and selected echocardiographic variables in dogs with MMVD and measureable TR. Tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient was significantly (P < .05) associated with body weight corrected right (RVIDDn) and left (LVIDDn) ventricular end-diastolic and systolic (LVIDSn) internal diameters, pulmonary arterial (PA) acceleration to deceleration time ratio (AT/DT), heart rate, left atrial to aortic root ratio (LA/Ao), and the presence of congestive heart failure. Four variables remained significant in the multiple regression analysis with TRPG as a dependent variable: modeled as linear variables LA/Ao (P < .0001) and RVIDDn (P = .041), modeled as second order polynomial variables: AT/DT (P = .0039) and LVIDDn (P < .0001) The adjusted R(2) -value for the final model was 0.45 and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggested the model's performance to predict PH, defined as 36, 45, and 55 mmHg as fair (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.80), good (AUC = 0.86), and excellent (AUC = 0.92), respectively. In dogs with MMVD, the presence of PH might be suspected with the combination of decreased PA AT/DT, increased RVIDDn and LA/Ao, and a small or great LVIDDn. Copyright © 2015 The Authors Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22664400','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22664400"><span>Adding thin-ideal internalization and impulsiveness to the cognitive-behavioral model of bulimic symptoms.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Schnitzler, Caroline E; von Ranson, Kristin M; Wallace, Laurel M</p> <p>2012-08-01</p> <p>This study evaluated the cognitive-behavioral (CB) model of bulimia nervosa and an extension that included two additional maintaining factors - thin-ideal internalization and impulsiveness - in 327 undergraduate women. Participants completed measures of demographics, self-esteem, concern about shape and weight, dieting, bulimic symptoms, thin-ideal internalization, and impulsiveness. Both the original CB model and the extended model provided good fits to the data. Although structural equation modeling analyses suggested that the original CB model was most parsimonious, hierarchical regression analyses indicated that the additional variables accounted for significantly more variance. Additional analyses showed that the model fit could be improved by adding a path from concern about shape and weight, and deleting the path from dieting, to bulimic symptoms. Expanding upon the factors considered in the model may better capture the scope of variables maintaining bulimic symptoms in young women with a range of severity of bulimic symptoms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A51O..05A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A51O..05A"><span>The Interplay of Internal and Forced Modes of Hadley Cell Expansion: Lessons from the Global Warming Hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Amaya, D. J.; Siler, N.; Xie, S. P.; Miller, A. J.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells show a robust shift poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we us a joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of Hadley Cell variability: (i) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (ii) an internal mode, which identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation with a global climate model. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the TOA radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is found to be essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JMPSo..70..281T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JMPSo..70..281T"><span>A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables. Part I-Theory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tengattini, Alessandro; Das, Arghya; Nguyen, Giang D.; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Hall, Stephen A.; Einav, Itai</p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>This is the first of two papers introducing a novel thermomechanical continuum constitutive model for cemented granular materials. Here, we establish the theoretical foundations of the model, and highlight its novelties. At the limit of no cement, the model is fully consistent with the original Breakage Mechanics model. An essential ingredient of the model is the use of measurable and micro-mechanics based internal variables, describing the evolution of the dominant inelastic processes. This imposes a link between the macroscopic mechanical behavior and the statistically averaged evolution of the microstructure. As a consequence this model requires only a few physically identifiable parameters, including those of the original breakage model and new ones describing the cement: its volume fraction, its critical damage energy and bulk stiffness, and the cohesion.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_3 --> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...92D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...92D"><span>Breakdown of NAO reproducibility into internal versus externally-forced components: a two-tier pilot study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Douville, Hervé; Ribes, A.; Tyteca, S.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>Assessing the ability of atmospheric models to capture observed climate variations when driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC) and radiative forcings is a prerequisite for the feasibility of near term climate predictions. Here we achieve ensembles of global atmospheric simulations to assess and attribute the reproducibility of the boreal winter atmospheric circulation against the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C). Our control experiment is driven by the observed SST/SIC from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. It is compared to a similar ensemble performed with the ECMWF model as a first step toward ERA20C. Moreover, a two-tier methodology is used to disentangle externally-forced versus internal variations in the observed SST/SIC boundary conditions and run additional ensembles allowing us to attribute the observed atmospheric variability. The focus is mainly on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability which is more reproducible in our model than in the ECMWF model. This result is partly due to the simulation of a positive NAO trend across the full 1920-2014 integration period. In line with former studies, this trend might be mediated by a circumglobal teleconnection mechanism triggered by increasing precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Surprisingly, this response is mainly related to the internal SST variability and is not found in the ECMWF model driven by an alternative SST dataset showing a weaker TIO warming in the first half of the twentieth century. Our results may reconcile the twentieth century observations with the twenty-first century projections of the NAO. They should be however considered with caution given the limited size of our ensembles, the possible influence of other sources of NAO variability, and the uncertainties in the tropical SST trend and breakdown between internal versus externally-forced variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1306152-sensitivity-summer-ensembles-fledgling-superparameterized-mesoscale-convective-systems-cloud-resolving-model-microphysics-grid-configuration','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1306152-sensitivity-summer-ensembles-fledgling-superparameterized-mesoscale-convective-systems-cloud-resolving-model-microphysics-grid-configuration"><span>Sensitivity of summer ensembles of fledgling superparameterized U.S. mesoscale convective systems to cloud resolving model microphysics and grid configuration</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.; ...</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=simulation+AND+processes&pg=5&id=EJ821686','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=simulation+AND+processes&pg=5&id=EJ821686"><span>Simulation Framework for Teaching in Modeling and Simulation Areas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>De Giusti, Marisa Raquel; Lira, Ariel Jorge; Villarreal, Gonzalo Lujan</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Simulation is the process of executing a model that describes a system with enough detail; this model has its entities, an internal state, some input and output variables and a list of processes bound to these variables. Teaching a simulation language such as general purpose simulation system (GPSS) is always a challenge, because of the way it…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=300912&keyword=mit&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=300912&keyword=mit&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50"><span>Evaluating the Contribution of Natural Variability and Climate Model Response to Uncertainty in Projections of Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Air Quality</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>We examine the effects of internal variability and model response in projections of climate impacts on U.S. ground-level ozone across the 21st century using integrated global system modeling and global atmospheric chemistry simulations. The impact of climate change on air polluti...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=study+AND+behavior+AND+children&pg=5&id=EJ1173378','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=study+AND+behavior+AND+children&pg=5&id=EJ1173378"><span>Predicting Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms in Children with ASD: Evaluation of a Contextual Model of Parental Factors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>McRae, Elizabeth M.; Stoppelbein, Laura; O'Kelley, Sarah E.; Fite, Paula; Greening, Leilani</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Parental adjustment, parenting behaviors, and child routines have been linked to internalizing and externalizing child behavior. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate a comprehensive model examining relations among these variables in children with ASD and their parents. Based on Sameroff's Transactional Model of Development (Sameroff…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.C52B..04R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.C52B..04R"><span>Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal variability of a marine-terminating ice stream</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Robel, A.; Schoof, C.; Tziperman, E.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Numerous studies have found significant variability in the velocity of ice streams to be a prominent feature of geomorphologic records in the Siple Coast (Catania et al. 2012) and other regions in West Antarctica (Dowdeswell et al. 2008). Observations indicate that grounding line position is strongly influenced by ice stream variability, producing rapid grounding line migration in the recent past (Catania et al. 2006) and the modern (Joughin & Tulaczyk 2002). We analyze the interaction of grounding line mass flux and position in a marine-terminating ice stream using a stretch-coordinate flowline model. This model is based on that described in Schoof (2007), with a mesh refined near the grounding line to ensure accurate resolution of the mechanical transition zone. Here we have added lateral shear stress (Dupont & Alley 2005) and an undrained plastic bed (Tulaczyk et al. 2000). The parameter dependence of ice stream variability seen in this model compares favorably to both simpler (Robel et al. 2013) and more complex (van der Wel et al. 2013) models, though with some key differences. We find that thermally-induced internal ice stream variability can cause very rapid grounding line migration even in the absence of retrograde bed slopes or external forcing. Activation waves propagate along the ice stream length and trigger periods of rapid grounding line migration. We compare the behavior of the grounding line due to internal ice stream variability to changes triggered externally at the grounding line such as the rapid disintegration of buttressing ice shelves. Implications for Heinrich events and the Marine Ice Sheet Instability are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24418218','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24418218"><span>Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R</p> <p>2014-09-15</p> <p>Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A11N0269L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A11N0269L"><span>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2487W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2487W"><span>Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1306152','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1306152"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.</p> <p></p> <p>The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24508935','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24508935"><span>Identification of International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories for patients with peripheral arterial disease.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vyskocil, Erich; Gruther, Wolfgang; Steiner, Irene; Schuhfried, Othmar</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Disease-specific categories of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health have not yet been described for patients with chronic peripheral arterial obstructive disease (PAD). The authors examined the relationship between the categories of the Brief Core Sets for ischemic heart diseases with the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire and the ankle-brachial index to determine which International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories are most relevant for patients with PAD. This is a retrospective cohort study including 77 patients with verified PAD. Statistical analyses of the relationship between International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories as independent variables and the endpoints Peripheral Artery Questionnaire or ankle-brachial index were carried out by simple and stepwise linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, and leg (left vs. right). The stepwise linear regression model with the ankle-brachial index as dependent variable revealed a significant effect of the variables blood vessel functions and muscle endurance functions. Calculating a stepwise linear regression model with the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire as dependent variable, a significant effect of age, emotional functions, energy and drive functions, carrying out daily routine, as well as walking could be observed. This study identifies International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories in the Brief Core Sets for ischemic heart diseases that show a significant effect on the ankle-brachial index and the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire score in patients with PAD. These categories provide fundamental information on functioning of patients with PAD and patient-centered outcomes for rehabilitation interventions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H11P..04B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H11P..04B"><span>The role of internal variability in prolonging the California drought</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The current drought in California has been one of the driest on record. Using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), recent studies have demonstrated that the low precipitation anomalies observed during the first three winters of the current drought are mostly attributable to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice forcing. Here we show through AGCM simulations that the fourth and latest winter of the current drought is not attributable to SST and sea ice forcing, but instead a consequence of higher internal variability. Using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) we demonstrate how the surface forcing reproduces dry conditions over California for the first three winters of the current drought, similar to what other models produced. However, when forced with the SST and sea ice conditions for the winter of 2014-2015, GSM robustly simulates high precipitation conditions over California. This significantly differs with observed precipitation anomalies, which suggests a model deficiency or large influence of internal variability within the climate system during the winter of 2014-2015. Ensemble simulations with 234 realizations reveal that the surface forcing created a broader range of precipitation possibilities over California. Thus, the surface forcing caused a greater degree of internal variations, which was driven by a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and amplified planetary waves over the Pacific. Similar amplified waves are also seen in 21st century climate projections of upper-level geopotential heights, suggesting that 21st century precipitation over California will become more variable and increasingly difficult to predict on seasonal timescales. When an El Nino pattern is applied to the surface forcing the precipitation further increases and the variance amongst model realizations is reduced, which indicates a strong likelihood of an anomalously wet 2015-2016 winter season.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2361H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2361H"><span>Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25010484','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25010484"><span>The influence of an uncertain force environment on reshaping trial-to-trial motor variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Izawa, Jun; Yoshioka, Toshinori; Osu, Rieko</p> <p>2014-09-10</p> <p>Motor memory is updated to generate ideal movements in a novel environment. When the environment changes every trial randomly, how does the brain incorporate this uncertainty into motor memory? To investigate how the brain adapts to an uncertain environment, we considered a reach adaptation protocol where individuals practiced moving in a force field where a noise was injected. After they had adapted, we measured the trial-to-trial variability in the temporal profiles of the produced hand force. We found that the motor variability was significantly magnified by the adaptation to the random force field. Temporal profiles of the motor variance were significantly dissociable between two different types of random force fields experienced. A model-based analysis suggests that the variability is generated by noise in the gains of the internal model. It further suggests that the trial-to-trial motor variability magnified by the adaptation in a random force field is generated by the uncertainty of the internal model formed in the brain as a result of the adaptation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3057480','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3057480"><span>Development of lifetime comorbidity in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kessler, Ronald C.; Ormel, Johan; Petukhova, Maria; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Green, Jennifer Greif; Russo, Leo J.; Stein, Dan J.; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Andrade, Laura; Benjet, Corina; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Demyttenaere, Koen; Fayyad, John; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chi yi; Karam, Aimee; Lee, Sing; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Matchsinger, Herbert; Mihaescu-Pintia, Constanta; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Üstün, T. Bedirhan</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>CONTEXT Although numerous studies have examined the role of latent variables in the structure of comorbidity among mental disorders, none has examined their role in the development of comorbidity. OBJECTIVE To study the role of latent variables in the development of comorbidity among 18 lifetime DSM-IV disorders in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS Nationally or regionally representative community surveys in 14 countries with a total of 21,229 respondents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES First onset of 18 lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders assessed retrospectively in the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). RESULTS Separate internalizing (anxiety and mood disorders) and externalizing (behavior and substance disorders) factors were found in exploratory factor analysis of lifetime disorders. Consistently significant positive time-lagged associations were found in survival analyses for virtually all temporally primary lifetime disorders predicting subsequent onset of other disorders. Within-domain (i.e., internalizing or externalizing) associations were generally stronger than between-domain associations. The vast majority of time-lagged associations were explained by a model that assumed the existence of mediating latent internalizing and externalizing variables. Specific phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (internalizing) and hyperactivity disorder and oppositional-defiant disorder (externalizing) were the most important predictors. A small number of residual associations remained significant after controlling the latent variables. CONCLUSIONS The good fit of the latent variable model suggests that common causal pathways account for most of the comorbidity among the disorders considered here. These common pathways should be the focus of future research on the development of comorbidity, although several important pair-wise associations that cannot be accounted for by latent variables also exist that warrant further focused study. PMID:21199968</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A41N..04H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A41N..04H"><span>Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hobbs, W. R.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840029486&hterms=potential+kinetic+energy&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dpotential%2Bkinetic%2Benergy','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840029486&hterms=potential+kinetic+energy&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dpotential%2Bkinetic%2Benergy"><span>Lagrange thermodynamic potential and intrinsic variables for He-3 He-4 dilute solutions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jackson, H. W.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>For a two-fluid model of dilute solutions of He-3 in liquid He-4, a thermodynamic potential is constructed that provides a Lagrangian for deriving equations of motion by a variational procedure. This Lagrangian is defined for uniform velocity fields as a (negative) Legendre transform of total internal energy, and its primary independent variables, together with their thermodynamic conjugates, are identified. Here, similarities between relations in classical physics and quantum statistical mechanics serve as a guide for developing an alternate expression for this function that reveals its character as the difference between apparent kinetic energy and intrinsic internal energy. When the He-3 concentration in the mixtures tends to zero, this expression reduces to Zilsel's formula for the Lagrangian for pure liquid He-4. An investigation of properties of the intrinsic internal energy leads to the introduction of intrinsic chemical potentials along with other intrinsic variables for the mixtures. Explicit formulas for these variables are derived for a noninteracting elementary excitation model of the fluid. Using these formulas and others also derived from quantum statistical mechanics, another equivalent expression for the Lagrangian is generated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186"><span>Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J</p> <p>2016-09-28</p> <p>Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JSR....73...32F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JSR....73...32F"><span>A model of clearance rate regulation in mussels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fréchette, Marcel</p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>Clearance rate regulation has been modelled as an instantaneous response to food availability, independent of the internal state of the animals. This view is incompatible with latent effects during ontogeny and phenotypic flexibility in clearance rate. Internal-state regulation of clearance rate is required to account for these patterns. Here I develop a model of internal-state based regulation of clearance rate. External factors such as suspended sediments are included in the model. To assess the relative merits of instantaneous regulation and internal-state regulation, I modelled blue mussel clearance rate and growth using a DEB model. In the usual standard feeding module, feeding is governed by a Holling's Type II response to food concentration. In the internal-state feeding module, gill ciliary activity and thus clearance rate are driven by internal reserve level. Factors such as suspended sediments were not included in the simulations. The two feeding modules were compared on the basis of their ability to capture the impact of latent effects, of environmental heterogeneity in food abundance and of physiological flexibility on clearance rate and individual growth. The Holling feeding module was unable to capture the effect of any of these sources of variability. In contrast, the internal-state feeding module did so without any modification or ad hoc calibration. Latent effects, however, appeared transient. With simple annual variability in temperature and food concentration, the relationship between clearance rate and food availability predicted by the internal-state feeding module was quite similar to that observed in Norwegian fjords. I conclude that in contrast with the usual Holling feeding module, internal-state regulation of clearance rate is consistent with well-documented growth and clearance rate patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12d4007M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12d4007M"><span>Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_4 --> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26546757','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26546757"><span>Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860020755','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860020755"><span>Integrated research in constitutive modelling at elevated temperatures, part 1</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Haisler, W. E.; Allen, D. H.</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>Topics covered include: numerical integration techniques; thermodynamics and internal state variables; experimental lab development; comparison of models at room temperature; comparison of models at elevated temperature; and integrated software development.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21468662','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21468662"><span>A multivariate model of parent-adolescent relationship variables in early adolescence.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>McKinney, Cliff; Renk, Kimberly</p> <p>2011-08-01</p> <p>Given the importance of predicting outcomes for early adolescents, this study examines a multivariate model of parent-adolescent relationship variables, including parenting, family environment, and conflict. Participants, who completed measures assessing these variables, included 710 culturally diverse 11-14-year-olds who were attending a middle school in a Southeastern state. The parents of a subset of these adolescents (i.e., 487 mother-father pairs) participated in this study as well. Correlational analyses indicate that authoritative and authoritarian parenting, family cohesion and adaptability, and conflict are significant predictors of early adolescents' internalizing and externalizing problems. Structural equation modeling analyses indicate that fathers' parenting may not predict directly externalizing problems in male and female adolescents but instead may act through conflict. More direct relationships exist when examining mothers' parenting. The impact of parenting, family environment, and conflict on early adolescents' internalizing and externalizing problems and the importance of both gender and cross-informant ratings are emphasized.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4171O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4171O"><span>North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=data+AND+sets&pg=5&id=EJ1150852','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=data+AND+sets&pg=5&id=EJ1150852"><span>Use of Standard Deviations as Predictors in Models Using Large-Scale International Data Sets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Austin, Bruce; French, Brian; Adesope, Olusola; Gotch, Chad</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Measures of variability are successfully used in predictive modeling in research areas outside of education. This study examined how standard deviations can be used to address research questions not easily addressed using traditional measures such as group means based on index variables. Student survey data were obtained from the Organisation for…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27821360','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27821360"><span>Internalized stigma among psychiatric outpatients: Associations with quality of life, functioning, hope and self-esteem.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Picco, Louisa; Pang, Shirlene; Lau, Ying Wen; Jeyagurunathan, Anitha; Satghare, Pratika; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi Ajit; Lim, Susan; Poh, Chee Lien; Chong, Siow Ann; Subramaniam, Mythily</p> <p>2016-12-30</p> <p>This study aimed to: (i) determine the prevalence, socio-demographic and clinical correlates of internalized stigma and (ii) explore the association between internalized stigma and quality of life, general functioning, hope and self-esteem, among a multi-ethnic Asian population of patients with mental disorders. This cross-sectional, survey recruited adult patients (n=280) who were seeking treatment at outpatient and affiliated clinics of the only tertiary psychiatric hospital in Singapore. Internalized stigma was measured using the Internalized Stigma of Mental Illness scale. 43.6% experienced moderate to high internalized stigma. After making adjustments in multiple logistic regression analysis, results revealed there were no significant socio-demographic or clinical correlates relating to internalized stigma. Individual logistic regression models found a negative relationship between quality of life, self-esteem, general functioning and internalized stigma whereby lower scores were associated with higher internalized stigma. In the final regression model, which included all psychosocial variables together, self-esteem was the only variable significantly and negatively associated with internalized stigma. The results of this study contribute to our understanding of the role internalized stigma plays in patients with mental illness, and the impact it can have on psychosocial aspects of their lives. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990049216','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990049216"><span>Quasi-Static Viscoelastic Finite Element Model of an Aircraft Tire</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>An elastic large displacement thick-shell mixed finite element is modified to allow for the calculation of viscoelastic stresses. Internal strain variables are introduced at the element's stress nodes and are employed to construct a viscous material model. First order ordinary differential equations relate the internal strain variables to the corresponding elastic strains at the stress nodes. The viscous stresses are computed from the internal strain variables using viscous moduli which are a fraction of the elastic moduli. The energy dissipated by the action of the viscous stresses is included in the mixed variational functional. The nonlinear quasi-static viscous equilibrium equations are then obtained. Previously developed Taylor expansions of the nonlinear elastic equilibrium equations are modified to include the viscous terms. A predictor-corrector time marching solution algorithm is employed to solve the algebraic-differential equations. The viscous shell element is employed to computationally simulate a stair-step loading and unloading of an aircraft tire in contact with a frictionless surface.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26869970','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26869970"><span>Self-Determination and Meaningful Work: Exploring Socioeconomic Constraints.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Allan, Blake A; Autin, Kelsey L; Duffy, Ryan D</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This study examined a model of meaningful work among a diverse sample of working adults. From the perspectives of Self-Determination Theory and the Psychology of Working Framework, we tested a structural model with social class and work volition predicting SDT motivation variables, which in turn predicted meaningful work. Partially supporting hypotheses, work volition was positively related to internal regulation and negatively related to amotivation, whereas social class was positively related to external regulation and amotivation. In turn, internal regulation was positively related to meaningful work, whereas external regulation and amotivation were negatively related to meaningful work. Indirect effects from work volition to meaningful work via internal regulation and amotivation were significant, and indirect effects from social class to meaningful work via external regulation and amotivation were significant. This study highlights the important relations between SDT motivation variables and meaningful work, especially the large positive relation between internal regulation and meaningful work. However, results also reveal that work volition and social class may play critical roles in predicting internal regulation, external regulation, and amotivation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMMR24B..01C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMMR24B..01C"><span>Unified Static and Dynamic Recrystallization Model for the Minerals of Earth's Mantle Using Internal State Variable Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cho, H. E.; Horstemeyer, M. F.; Baumgardner, J. R.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>In this study, we present an internal state variable (ISV) constitutive model developed to model static and dynamic recrystallization and grain size progression in a unified manner. This method accurately captures temperature, pressure and strain rate effect on the recrystallization and grain size. Because this ISV approach treats dislocation density, volume fraction of recrystallization and grain size as internal variables, this model can simultaneously track their history during the deformation with unprecedented realism. Based on this deformation history, this method can capture realistic mechanical properties such as stress-strain behavior in the relationship of microstructure-mechanical property. Also, both the transient grain size during the deformation and the steady-state grain size of dynamic recrystallization can be predicted from the history variable of recrystallization volume fraction. Furthermore, because this model has a capability to simultaneously handle plasticity and creep behaviors (unified creep-plasticity), the mechanisms (static recovery (or diffusion creep), dynamic recovery (or dislocation creep) and hardening) related to dislocation dynamics can also be captured. To model these comprehensive mechanical behaviors, the mathematical formulation of this model includes elasticity to evaluate yield stress, work hardening in treating plasticity, creep, as well as the unified recrystallization and grain size progression. Because pressure sensitivity is especially important for the mantle minerals, we developed a yield function combining Drucker-Prager shear failure and von Mises yield surfaces to model the pressure dependent yield stress, while using pressure dependent work hardening and creep terms. Using these formulations, we calibrated against experimental data of the minerals acquired from the literature. Additionally, we also calibrated experimental data for metals to show the general applicability of our model. Understanding of realistic mantle dynamics can only be acquired once the various deformation regimes and mechanisms are comprehensively modeled. The results of this study demonstrate that this ISV model is a good modeling candidate to help reveal the realistic dynamics of the Earth's mantle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..597R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..597R"><span>Comment on "Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcing" by S. Lovejoy and C. Varotsos (2016)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>Lovejoy and Varotsos (2016) (L&V) analyse the temperature response to solar, volcanic, and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, and to solar and solar plus volcanic forcing in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) E2-R model. By using a simple wavelet filtering technique they conclude that the responses in the ZC model combine subadditively on timescales from 50 to 1000 years. Nonlinear response on shorter timescales is claimed by analysis of intermittencies in the forcing and the temperature signal for both models. The analysis of additivity in the ZC model suffers from a confusing presentation of results based on an invalid approximation, and from ignoring the effect of internal variability. We present tests without this approximation which are not able to detect nonlinearity in the response, even without accounting for internal variability. We also demonstrate that internal variability will appear as subadditivity if it is not accounted for. L&V's analysis of intermittencies is based on a mathematical result stating that the intermittencies of forcing and response are the same if the response is linear. We argue that there are at least three different factors that may invalidate the application of this result for these data. It is valid only for a power-law response function; it assumes power-law scaling of structure functions of forcing as well as temperature signal; and the internal variability, which is strong at least on the short timescales, will exert an influence on temperature intermittence which is independent of the forcing. We demonstrate by a synthetic example that the differences in intermittencies observed by L&V easily can be accounted for by these effects under the assumption of a linear response. Our conclusion is that the analysis performed by L&V does not present valid evidence for a detectable nonlinear response in the global temperature in these climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29170567','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29170567"><span>Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.2297H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.2297H"><span>On the generation of climate model ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy; Phipps, Steven J.</p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.4246B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.4246B"><span>Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.<abstract type="synopsis"><title type="main">Plain Language SummaryWhile the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds. Here we show that climate models simulate a high level of internal variability, so that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific could still be due to natural processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k4003M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k4003M"><span>Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25151123','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25151123"><span>Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28982250','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28982250"><span>Exploring the Impact of Different Input Data Types on Soil Variable Estimation Using the ICRAF-ISRIC Global Soil Spectral Database.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Aitkenhead, Matt J; Black, Helaina I J</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Using the International Centre for Research in Agroforestry-International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ICRAF-ISRIC) global soil spectroscopy database, models were developed to estimate a number of soil variables using different input data types. These input types included: (1) site data only; (2) visible-near-infrared (Vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy only; (3) combined site and Vis-NIR data; (4) red-green-blue (RGB) color data only; and (5) combined site and RGB color data. The models produced variable estimation accuracy, with RGB only being generally worst and spectroscopy plus site being best. However, we showed that for certain variables, estimation accuracy levels achieved with the "site plus RGB input data" were sufficiently good to provide useful estimates (r 2 > 0.7). These included major elements (Ca, Si, Al, Fe), organic carbon, and cation exchange capacity. Estimates for bulk density, contrast-to-noise (C/N), and P were moderately good, but K was not well estimated using this model type. For the "spectra plus site" model, many more variables were well estimated, including many that are important indicators for agricultural productivity and soil health. Sum of cation, electrical conductivity, Si, Ca, and Al oxides, and C/N ratio were estimated using this approach with r 2 values > 0.9. This work provides a mechanism for identifying the cost-effectiveness of using different model input data, with associated costs, for estimating soil variables to required levels of accuracy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170007845&hterms=Situ&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DIn%2BSitu','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20170007845&hterms=Situ&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DIn%2BSitu"><span>Using an Altimeter-Derived Internal Tide Model to Remove Tides from in Situ Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Zaron, Edward D.; Ray, Richard D.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Internal waves at tidal frequencies, i.e., the internal tides, are a prominent source of variability in the ocean associated with significant vertical isopycnal displacements and currents. Because the isopycnal displacements are caused by ageostrophic dynamics, they contribute uncertainty to geostrophic transport inferred from vertical profiles in the ocean. Here it is demonstrated that a newly developed model of the main semidiurnal (M2) internal tide derived from satellite altimetry may be used to partially remove the tide from vertical profile data, as measured by the reduction of steric height variance inferred from the profiles. It is further demonstrated that the internal tide model can account for a component of the near-surface velocity as measured by drogued drifters. These comparisons represent a validation of the internal tide model using independent data and highlight its potential use in removing internal tide signals from in situ observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1670D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1670D"><span>Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to simulate southern African summer rainfall. This multi-timescale procedure shows much better skills in simulating decadal timescales of variability compared to commonly used statistical downscaling approaches.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..01P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..01P"><span>Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011MPLB...25.2407M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011MPLB...25.2407M"><span>Stability of Intercellular Exchange of Biochemical Substances Affected by Variability of Environmental Parameters</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Budinčević, Mirko; Balaž, Igor; Mihailović, Anja</p> <p></p> <p>Communication between cells is realized by exchange of biochemical substances. Due to internal organization of living systems and variability of external parameters, the exchange is heavily influenced by perturbations of various parameters at almost all stages of the process. Since communication is one of essential processes for functioning of living systems it is of interest to investigate conditions for its stability. Using previously developed simplified model of bacterial communication in a form of coupled difference logistic equations we investigate stability of exchange of signaling molecules under variability of internal and external parameters.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_5 --> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940028445','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940028445"><span>Modeling of aircraft unsteady aerodynamic characteristics. Part 1: Postulated models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Klein, Vladislav; Noderer, Keith D.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>A short theoretical study of aircraft aerodynamic model equations with unsteady effects is presented. The aerodynamic forces and moments are expressed in terms of indicial functions or internal state variables. The first representation leads to aircraft integro-differential equations of motion; the second preserves the state-space form of the model equations. The formulations of unsteady aerodynamics is applied in two examples. The first example deals with a one-degree-of-freedom harmonic motion about one of the aircraft body axes. In the second example, the equations for longitudinal short-period motion are developed. In these examples, only linear aerodynamic terms are considered. The indicial functions are postulated as simple exponentials and the internal state variables are governed by linear, time-invariant, first-order differential equations. It is shown that both approaches to the modeling of unsteady aerodynamics lead to identical models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040111083','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040111083"><span>Specification of ISS Plasma Environment Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Minow, Joseph I.; Neergaard, Linda F.; Bui, Them H.; Mikatarian, Ronald R.; Barsamian, H.; Koontz, Steven L.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Quantifying spacecraft charging risks and associated hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification for the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. This paper describes a statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites used to derive a model of deviations of observed data values from IRI-2001 estimates of Ne, Te parameters for each data point to provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. Application of the deviation model with the IRI-2001 output yields a method for estimating extreme environments for the ISS spacecraft charging analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/750627','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/750627"><span>A stochastic locomotor control model for the nurse shark, Ginglymostoma cirratum.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gerald, K B; Matis, J H; Kleerekoper, H</p> <p>1978-06-12</p> <p>The locomotor behavior of the nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum) is characterized by 17 variables (frequency and ratios of left, right, and total turns; their radians; straight paths (steps); distance travelled; and velocity) Within each of these variables there is an internal time dependency the structure of which was elaborated together with an improved statistical model predicting their behavior within 90% confidence limits. The model allows for the sensitive detection of subtle locomotor response to sensory stimulation as values of variables may exceed the established confidence limits within minutes after onset of the stimulus. The locomotor activity is well described by an autoregression time series model and can be predicted by only seven variables. Six of these form two independently operating clusters. The first one consists of: the number of right turns, the distance travelled and the mean velocity; the second one of: the mean size of right turns, of left turns, and of all turns. The same clustering is obtained independently by a cluster analysis of cross-sections of the seven time series. It is apparent that, among a total of 17 locomotor variables, seven behave as individually independent agents, presumably controlled by seven separate and independent centers. The output of each center can only be predicted by its own behavior. In spite of the individual of the seven variables, their internal structure is similar in important aspects which may result from control by a common command center. The shark locomotor model differs in important aspects from the previously constructed for the goldfish. The interdependence of the locomotor variables in both species may be related to the control mechanisms postulated by von Holst for the coordination of rhythmic fin movements in fishes. A locomotor control model for the nurse shark is proposed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.1693P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.1693P"><span>On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860015839','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19860015839"><span>Effects of state recovery on creep buckling under variable loading</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Robinson, D. N.; Arnold, S. M.</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and elevated temperature, i.e., they can return to a softer state following periods of hardening. Such material behavior is known to strongly influence structural response under some important thermomechanical loadings, for example, that involving thermal ratchetting. The influence of dynamic and thermal recovery on the creep buckling of a column under variable loading is investigated. The column is taken as the idealized (Shanley) sandwich column. The constitutive model, unlike the commonly employed Norton creep model, incorporates a representation of both dynamic and thermal (state) recovery. The material parameters of the constitutive model are chosen to characterize Narloy Z, a representative copper alloy used in thrust nozzle liners of reusable rocket engines. Variable loading histories include rapid cyclic unloading/reloading sequences and intermittent reductions of load for extended periods of time; these are superimposed on a constant load. The calculated results show that state recovery significantly affects creep buckling under variable loading. Structural alloys embody internal mechanisms that allow recovery of state with varying stress and time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12d4005E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12d4005E"><span>The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3808612','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3808612"><span>Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/631259','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/631259"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Unseren, M.A.</p> <p></p> <p>The report reviews a method for modeling and controlling two serial link manipulators which mutually lift and transport a rigid body object in a three dimensional workspace. A new vector variable is introduced which parameterizes the internal contact force controlled degrees of freedom. A technique for dynamically distributing the payload between the manipulators is suggested which yields a family of solutions for the contact forces and torques the manipulators impart to the object. A set of rigid body kinematic constraints which restricts the values of the joint velocities of both manipulators is derived. A rigid body dynamical model for themore » closed chain system is first developed in the joint space. The model is obtained by generalizing the previous methods for deriving the model. The joint velocity and acceleration variables in the model are expressed in terms of independent pseudovariables. The pseudospace model is transformed to obtain reduced order equations of motion and a separate set of equations governing the internal components of the contact forces and torques. A theoretic control architecture is suggested which explicitly decouples the two sets of equations comprising the model. The controller enables the designer to develop independent, non-interacting control laws for the position control and internal force control of the system.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/474893','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/474893"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Unseren, M.A.</p> <p></p> <p>The paper reviews a method for modeling and controlling two serial link manipulators which mutually lift and transport a rigid body object in a three dimensional workspace. A new vector variable is introduced which parameterizes the internal contact force controlled degrees of freedom. A technique for dynamically distributing the payload between the manipulators is suggested which yields a family of solutions for the contact forces and torques the manipulators impart to the object. A set of rigid body kinematic constraints which restrict the values of the joint velocities of both manipulators is derived. A rigid body dynamical model for themore » closed chain system is first developed in the joint space. The model is obtained by generalizing the previous methods for deriving the model. The joint velocity and acceleration variables in the model are expressed in terms of independent pseudovariables. The pseudospace model is transformed to obtain reduced order equations of motion and a separate set of equations governing the internal components of the contact forces and torques. A theoretic control architecture is suggested which explicitly decouples the two sets of equations comprising the model. The controller enables the designer to develop independent, non-interacting control laws for the position control and internal force control of the system.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960028587','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19960028587"><span>A viscoelastic higher-order beam finite element</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, Arthur R.; Tressler, Alexander</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>A viscoelastic internal variable constitutive theory is applied to a higher-order elastic beam theory and finite element formulation. The behavior of the viscous material in the beam is approximately modeled as a Maxwell solid. The finite element formulation requires additional sets of nodal variables for each relaxation time constant needed by the Maxwell solid. Recent developments in modeling viscoelastic material behavior with strain variables that are conjugate to the elastic strain measures are combined with advances in modeling through-the-thickness stresses and strains in thick beams. The result is a viscous thick-beam finite element that possesses superior characteristics for transient analysis since its nodal viscous forces are not linearly dependent an the nodal velocities, which is the case when damping matrices are used. Instead, the nodal viscous forces are directly dependent on the material's relaxation spectrum and the history of the nodal variables through a differential form of the constitutive law for a Maxwell solid. The thick beam quasistatic analysis is explored herein as a first step towards developing more complex viscoelastic models for thick plates and shells, and for dynamic analyses. The internal variable constitutive theory is derived directly from the Boltzmann superposition theorem. The mechanical strains and the conjugate internal strains are shown to be related through a system of first-order, ordinary differential equations. The total time-dependent stress is the superposition of its elastic and viscous components. Equations of motion for the solid are derived from the virtual work principle using the total time-dependent stress. Numerical examples for the problems of relaxation, creep, and cyclic creep are carried out for a beam made from an orthotropic Maxwell solid.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2563137','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2563137"><span>International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cohen, Joel E.; Roig, Marta; Reuman, Daniel C.; GoGwilt, Cai</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>International migration will play an increasing role in the demographic future of most nations if fertility continues to decline globally. We developed an algorithm to project future numbers of international migrants from any country or region to any other. The proposed generalized linear model (GLM) used geographic and demographic independent variables only (the population and area of origins and destinations of migrants, the distance between origin and destination, the calendar year, and indicator variables to quantify nonrandom characteristics of individual countries). The dependent variable, yearly numbers of migrants, was quantified by 43653 reports from 11 countries of migration from 228 origins and to 195 destinations during 1960–2004. The final GLM based on all data was selected by the Bayesian information criterion. The number of migrants per year from origin to destination was proportional to (population of origin)0.86(area of origin)−0.21(population of destination)0.36(distance)−0.97, multiplied by functions of year and country-specific indicator variables. The number of emigrants from an origin depended on both its population and its population density. For a variable initial year and a fixed terminal year 2004, the parameter estimates appeared stable. Multiple R2, the fraction of variation in log numbers of migrants accounted for by the starting model, improved gradually with recentness of the data: R2 = 0.57 for data from 1960 to 2004, R2 = 0.59 for 1985–2004, R2 = 0.61 for 1995–2004, and R2 = 0.64 for 2000–2004. The migration estimates generated by the model may be embedded in deterministic or stochastic population projections. PMID:18824693</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150002729','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150002729"><span>Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11326724','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11326724"><span>Organizational adoption of preemployment drug testing.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Spell, C S; Blum, T C</p> <p>2001-04-01</p> <p>This study explored the adoption of preemployment drug testing by 360 organizations. Survival models were developed that included internal organizational and labor market factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of adoption of drug testing. Also considered was another set of variables that included social and political variables based on institutional theory. An event history analysis using Cox regressions indicated that both internal organizational and environmental variables predicted adoption of drug testing. Results indicate that the higher the proportion of drug testers in the worksite's industry, the more likely it would be to adopt drug testing. Also, the extent to which an organization uses an internal labor market, voluntary turnover rate, and the extent to which management perceives drugs to be a problem were related to likelihood of adoption of drug testing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880050566&hterms=evapotranspiration&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Devapotranspiration','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880050566&hterms=evapotranspiration&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Devapotranspiration"><span>Evapotranspiration from nonuniform surfaces - A first approach for short-term numerical weather prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Wetzel, Peter J.; Chang, Jy-Tai</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>Observations of surface heterogeneity of soil moisture from scales of meters to hundreds of kilometers are discussed, and a relationship between grid element size and soil moisture variability is presented. An evapotranspiration model is presented which accounts for the variability of soil moisture, standing surface water, and vegetation internal and stomatal resistance to moisture flow from the soil. The mean values and standard deviations of these parameters are required as input to the model. Tests of this model against field observations are reported, and extensive sensitivity tests are presented which explore the importance of including subgrid-scale variability in an evapotranspiration model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312446K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312446K"><span>Soil erosion assessment - Mind the gap</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Fatichi, Simone</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors - long studied and referred to as "geomorphic external variability", and microscale effects, introduced as "geomorphic internal variability." The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27045449','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27045449"><span>Building a pantheoretical model of dehumanization with transgender men: Integrating objectification and minority stress theories.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Velez, Brandon L; Breslow, Aaron S; Brewster, Melanie E; Cox, Robert; Foster, Aasha B</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>With a national sample of 304 transgender men, the present study tested a pantheoretical model of dehumanization (Moradi, 2013) with hypotheses derived from objectification theory (Fredrickson & Roberts, 1997), minority stress theory (Meyer, 2003), and prior research regarding men's body image concerns. Specifically, we tested common objectification theory constructs (internalization of sociocultural standards of attractiveness [SSA], body surveillance, body satisfaction) as direct and indirect predictors of compulsive exercise. We also examined the roles of transgender-specific minority stress variables-antitransgender discrimination and transgender identity congruence-in the model. Results of a latent variable structural equation model yielded mixed support for the posited relations. The direct and indirect interrelations of internalization of SSA, body surveillance, and body satisfaction were consistent with prior objectification theory research, but only internalization of SSA yielded a significant direct relation with compulsive exercise. In addition, neither internalization of SSA nor body surveillance yielded significant indirect relations with compulsive exercise. However, antitransgender discrimination yielded predicted indirect relations with body surveillance, body satisfaction, and compulsive exercise, with transgender congruence playing a key mediating role in most of these relations. The implications of this pantheoretical model for research and practice with transgender men are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23914745','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23914745"><span>Internalized model minority myth, Asian values, and help-seeking attitudes among Asian American students.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Paul Youngbin; Lee, Donghun</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The present study examined cultural factors underlying help-seeking attitudes of Asian American college students (N = 106). Specifically, we explored internalized model minority myth as a predictor of help-seeking attitudes and tested an intrapersonal-interpersonal framework of Asian values as a mechanism by which the two are related. Results indicated that internalized model minority myth significantly predicted unfavorable help-seeking attitudes, and emotional self-control mediated this relationship. Interpersonal values and humility were nonsignificant mediators, contrary to our hypotheses. The findings suggest that the investigation of internalized model minority myth in help-seeking research is a worthwhile endeavor, and they also highlight emotional self-control as an important explanatory variable in help-seeking attitudes of Asian American college students.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001064','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001064"><span>The Influence of Internal Model Variability in GEOS-5 on Interhemispheric CO2 Exchange</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Allen, Melissa; Erickson, David; Kendall, Wesley; Fu, Joshua; Ott, Leslie; Pawson, Steven</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>An ensemble of eight atmospheric CO2 simulations was completed employing the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Earth Observation System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) for the years 2000-2001, each with initial meteorological conditions corresponding to different days in January 2000 to examine internal model variability. Globally, the model runs show similar concentrations of CO2 for the two years, but in regions of high CO2 concentrations due to fossil fuel emissions, large differences among different model simulations appear. The phasing and amplitude of the CO2 cycle at Northern Hemisphere locations in all of the ensemble members is similar to that of surface observations. In several southern hemisphere locations, however, some of the GEOS-5 model CO2 cycles are out of phase by as much as four months, and large variations occur between the ensemble members. This result indicates that there is large sensitivity to transport in these regions. The differences vary by latitude-the most extreme differences in the Tropics and the least at the South Pole. Examples of these differences among the ensemble members with regard to CO2 uptake and respiration of the terrestrial biosphere and CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel emissions are shown at Cape Grim, Tasmania. Integration-based flow analysis of the atmospheric circulation in the model runs shows widely varying paths of flow into the Tasmania region among the models including sources from North America, South America, South Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. These results suggest that interhemispheric transport can be strongly influenced by internal model variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23G0296L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23G0296L"><span>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements in Understanding AMOC</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, S. E.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects on improving the understanding Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its impact on decadal predictability, and its relationship with the overall climate system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AdAtS..35...14C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AdAtS..35...14C"><span>Simulations of Eurasian winter temperature trends in coupled and uncoupled CFSv2</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Collow, Thomas W.; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Conflicting results have been presented regarding the link between Arctic sea-ice loss and midlatitude cooling, particularly over Eurasia. This study analyzes uncoupled (atmosphere-only) and coupled (ocean-atmosphere) simulations by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), to examine this linkage during the Northern Hemisphere winter, focusing on the simulation of the observed surface cooling trend over Eurasia during the last three decades. The uncoupled simulations are Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs forced with mean seasonal cycles of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice, using combinations of SST and sea ice from different time periods to assess the role that each plays individually, and to assess the role of atmospheric internal variability. Coupled runs are used to further investigate the role of internal variability via the analysis of initialized predictions and the evolution of the forecast with lead time. The AMIP simulations show a mean warming response over Eurasia due to SST changes, but little response to changes in sea ice. Individual runs simulate cooler periods over Eurasia, and this is shown to be concurrent with a stronger Siberian high and warming over Greenland. No substantial differences in the variability of Eurasian surface temperatures are found between the different model configurations. In the coupled runs, the region of significant warming over Eurasia is small at short leads, but increases at longer leads. It is concluded that, although the models have some capability in highlighting the temperature variability over Eurasia, the observed cooling may still be a consequence of internal variability.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_6 --> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4735399','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4735399"><span>Self-Determination and Meaningful Work: Exploring Socioeconomic Constraints</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Allan, Blake A.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This study examined a model of meaningful work among a diverse sample of working adults. From the perspectives of Self-Determination Theory and the Psychology of Working Framework, we tested a structural model with social class and work volition predicting SDT motivation variables, which in turn predicted meaningful work. Partially supporting hypotheses, work volition was positively related to internal regulation and negatively related to amotivation, whereas social class was positively related to external regulation and amotivation. In turn, internal regulation was positively related to meaningful work, whereas external regulation and amotivation were negatively related to meaningful work. Indirect effects from work volition to meaningful work via internal regulation and amotivation were significant, and indirect effects from social class to meaningful work via external regulation and amotivation were significant. This study highlights the important relations between SDT motivation variables and meaningful work, especially the large positive relation between internal regulation and meaningful work. However, results also reveal that work volition and social class may play critical roles in predicting internal regulation, external regulation, and amotivation. PMID:26869970</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032531','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70032531"><span>Attribution of declining Western U.S. Snowpack to human effects</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Pierce, D.W.; Barnett, T.P.; Hidalgo, H.G.; Das, T.; Bonfils, Celine; Santer, B.D.; Bala, G.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Mirin, A.; Wood, A.W.; Nozawa, T.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950-99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D-A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D-A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15695941','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15695941"><span>Research environments that promote integrity.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jeffers, Brenda Recchia; Whittemore, Robin</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>The body of empirical knowledge about research integrity and the factors that promote research integrity in nursing research environments remains small. To propose an internal control model as an innovative framework for the design and structure of nursing research environments that promote integrity. An internal control model is adapted to illustrate its use for conceptualizing and designing research environments that promote integrity. The internal control model integrates both the organizational elements necessary to promote research integrity and the processes needed to assess research environments. The model provides five interrelated process components within which any number of research integrity variables and processes may be used and studied: internal control environment, risk assessment, internal control activities, monitoring, and information and communication. The components of the proposed research integrity internal control model proposed comprise an integrated conceptualization of the processes that provide reasonable assurance that research integrity will be promoted within the nursing research environment. Schools of nursing can use the model to design, implement, and evaluate systems that promote research integrity. The model process components need further exploration to substantiate the use of the model in nursing research environments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7054K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7054K"><span>On the role of "internal variability" on soil erosion assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Jongho; Ivanov, Valeriy; Fatichi, Simone</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Empirical data demonstrate that soil loss is highly non-unique with respect to meteorological or even runoff forcing and its frequency distributions exhibit heavy tails. However, all current erosion assessments do not describe the large associated uncertainties of temporal erosion variability and make unjustified assumptions by relying on central tendencies. Thus, the predictive skill of prognostic models and reliability of national-scale assessments have been repeatedly questioned. In this study, we attempt to reveal that the high variability in soil losses can be attributed to two sources: (1) 'external variability' referring to the uncertainties originating at macro-scale, such as climate, topography, and land use, which has been extensively studied; (2) 'geomorphic internal variability' referring to the micro-scale variations of pedologic properties (e.g., surface erodibility in soils with multi-sized particles), hydrologic properties (e.g., soil structure and degree of saturation), and hydraulic properties (e.g., surface roughness and surface topography). Using data and a physical hydraulic, hydrologic, and erosion and sediment transport model, we show that the geomorphic internal variability summarized by spatio-temporal variability in surface erodibility properties is a considerable source of uncertainty in erosion estimates and represents an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response. The conclusion is that predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components together with deterministic assessments, if they do not want to largely underestimate uncertainty. Acknowledgement: This study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education (2016R1D1A1B03931886).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2560793','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2560793"><span>What can we learn from international comparisons of health systems and health system reform?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>McPake, B.; Mills, A.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Most commonly, lessons derived from comparisons of international health sector reform can only be generalized in a limited way to similar countries. However, there is little guidance as to what constitutes "similarity" in this respect. We propose that a framework for assessing similarity could be derived from the performance of individual policies in different contexts, and from the cause and effect processes related to the policies. We demonstrate this process by considering research evidence in the "public-private mix", and propose variables for an initial framework that we believe determine private involvement in the public health sector. The most influential model of public leadership places the private role in a contracting framework. Research in countries that have adopted this model suggests an additional list of variables to add to the framework. The variables can be grouped under the headings "demand factors", "supply factors", and "strength of the public sector". These illustrate the nature of a framework that could emerge, and which would help countries aiming to learn from international experience. PMID:10916918</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29451717','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29451717"><span>Modeling of cytometry data in logarithmic space: When is a bimodal distribution not bimodal?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Erez, Amir; Vogel, Robert; Mugler, Andrew; Belmonte, Andrew; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire</p> <p>2018-02-16</p> <p>Recent efforts in systems immunology lead researchers to build quantitative models of cell activation and differentiation. One goal is to account for the distributions of proteins from single-cell measurements by flow cytometry or mass cytometry as readout of biological regulation. In that context, large cell-to-cell variability is often observed in biological quantities. We show here that these readouts, viewed in logarithmic scale may result in two easily-distinguishable modes, while the underlying distribution (in linear scale) is unimodal. We introduce a simple mathematical test to highlight this mismatch. We then dissect the flow of influence of cell-to-cell variability proposing a graphical model which motivates higher-dimensional analysis of the data. Finally we show how acquiring additional biological information can be used to reduce uncertainty introduced by cell-to-cell variability, helping to clarify whether the data is uni- or bimodal. This communication has cautionary implications for manual and automatic gating strategies, as well as clustering and modeling of single-cell measurements. © 2018 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2018 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/378980','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/378980"><span>Development of a carburizing and quenching simulation tool: A material model for low carbon steels undergoing phase transformations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Bammann, D.; Prantil, V.; Kumar, A.</p> <p>1996-06-24</p> <p>An internal state variable formulation for phase transforming alloy steels is presented. We have illustrated how local transformation plasticity can be accommodated by an appropriate choice for the corresponding internal stress field acting between the phases. The state variable framework compares well with a numerical micromechanical calculation providing a discrete dependence of microscopic plasticity on volume fraction and the stress dependence attributable to a softer parent phase. The multiphase model is used to simulate the stress state of a quenched bar and show qualitative trends in the response when the transformation phenomenon is incorporated on the length scale of amore » global boundary value problem.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...83F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp...83F"><span>Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=337444','PESTICIDES'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=337444"><span>Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection ...</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/search.htm">EPA Pesticide Factsheets</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used, or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively add/remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating dataset consists of the good/poor condition of n=1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p=212) of landscape features from the StreamCat dataset. Two types of RF models are compared: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors, and a reduced variable set model selected using a backwards elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors, and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substanti</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Subsystems+AND+analyses&pg=3&id=ED141308','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Subsystems+AND+analyses&pg=3&id=ED141308"><span>Toward a Generative Model of the Teaching-Learning Process.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>McMullen, David W.</p> <p></p> <p>Until the rise of cognitive psychology, models of the teaching-learning process (TLP) stressed external rather than internal variables. Models remained general descriptions until control theory introduced explicit system analyses. Cybernetic models emphasize feedback and adaptivity but give little attention to creativity. Research on artificial…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH43B2814O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH43B2814O"><span>Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17483121','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17483121"><span>Characterizing uncertainty and variability in physiologically based pharmacokinetic models: state of the science and needs for research and implementation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Barton, Hugh A; Chiu, Weihsueh A; Setzer, R Woodrow; Andersen, Melvin E; Bailer, A John; Bois, Frédéric Y; Dewoskin, Robert S; Hays, Sean; Johanson, Gunnar; Jones, Nancy; Loizou, George; Macphail, Robert C; Portier, Christopher J; Spendiff, Martin; Tan, Yu-Mei</p> <p>2007-10-01</p> <p>Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are used in mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments to estimate internal dosimetry in animals and humans. When used in risk assessment, these models can provide a basis for extrapolating between species, doses, and exposure routes or for justifying nondefault values for uncertainty factors. Characterization of uncertainty and variability is increasingly recognized as important for risk assessment; this represents a continuing challenge for both PBPK modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and nondeterministic (often statistical) models, estimating parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, using them to make predictions, and characterizing uncertainty and variability of model parameters and predictions. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held 31 Oct-2 Nov 2006, identified the state-of-the-science, needed changes in practice and implementation, and research priorities. For the short term, these include (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and nondeterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through improved documentation of model structure(s), parameter values, sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include (1) theoretical and practical methodological improvements for nondeterministic/statistical modeling; (2) better methods for evaluating alternative model structures; (3) peer-reviewed databases of parameters and covariates, and their distributions; (4) expanded coverage of PBPK models across chemicals with different properties; and (5) training and reference materials, such as cases studies, bibliographies/glossaries, model repositories, and enhanced software. The multidisciplinary dialogue initiated by this Workshop will foster the collaboration, research, data collection, and training necessary to make characterizing uncertainty and variability a standard practice in PBPK modeling and risk assessment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1013727','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1013727"><span>A Multiscale Nested Modeling Framework to Simulate the Interaction of Surface Gravity Waves with Nonlinear Internal Gravity Waves</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-09-30</p> <p>We aim at understanding the impact of tidal , seasonal, and mesoscale variability of the internal wave field and how it influences the surface waves ...Interaction of Surface Gravity Waves with Nonlinear Internal Gravity Waves Lian Shen St. Anthony Falls Laboratory and Department of Mechanical...on studying surface gravity wave evolution and spectrum in the presence of surface currents caused by strongly nonlinear internal solitary waves</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557282','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA557282"><span>A Spreadsheet Model That Estimates the Impact of Reduced Distribution Time on Inventory Investment Savings: What is a Day Taken Out of the Pipeline Worth in Inventory?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2012-03-01</p> <p>fall-2006/lecture-notes/lect11.pdf Chang, C.-T. (2005). A Linearization Approach for Inventory Models with Variable Lead Time. International Journal of Production Economics , 263...Demand and Lead Time are Stochastic. International Journal of Production Economics , 595-605. Hayya, J. C., Harrison, T. P., & He, X. (2011). The Impact</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..785K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..785K"><span>Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20436336','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20436336"><span>Quality of internal communication in health care and the professional-patient relationship.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>March Cerdá, Joan Carles; Prieto Rodríguez, María Angeles; Pérez Corral, Olivia; Lorenzo, Sergio Minué; Danet, Alina</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>A study was undertaken for the purpose of describing internal communication and the professional-patient relationship and to establish a descriptive model of the interaction between these 2 variables. A nationwide survey was carried out in primary care and specialist care centers in Spain. A simple random sampling method was used with 1183 health care professionals. The data collection instrument was a Likert questionnaire that recorded information on the perceived quality of internal communication (0-100 scale), professional-patient relationships (0-100 scale), and sociodemographic variables. The results were analyzed using SPSS 15.0, performing mean comparisons and a suitable linear regression model.The total average of the quality of internal communication was 53.79 points, and that of the professional-patient relationships was 74.17 points. Sex made no statistically significant difference. Age shows that the older the participant, the better his/her opinion of internal communication and professional-patient relationships. Nursing staff had the highest opinion of internal communication and professional-patient relationships. The association between internal communication and professional-patient relationship was positive (R = 0.45).It was concluded that continuous exchange of information among health care professionals, together with learning and shared decision making or a positive emotional climate, is an element that will consolidate good professional-patient relationships and ensure patient satisfaction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29706192','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29706192"><span>A predictive model for recurrence in patients with glottic cancer implemented in a mobile application for Android.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jover-Esplá, Ana Gabriela; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Severá-Ferrándiz, Guillermo; Sancho-Mestre, Manuela; de Juan-Herrero, Joaquín; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>The existing predictive models of laryngeal cancer recurrence present limitations for clinical practice. Therefore, we constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application (Android) a new model based on a points system taking into account the internationally recommended statistical methodology. This longitudinal prospective study included 189 patients with glottic cancer in 2004-2016 in a Spanish region. The main variable was time-to-recurrence, and its potential predictors were: age, gender, TNM classification, stage, smoking, alcohol consumption, and histology. A points system was developed to predict five-year risk of recurrence based on a Cox model. This was validated internally by bootstrapping, determining discrimination (C-statistics) and calibration (smooth curves). A total of 77 patients presented recurrence (40.7%) in a mean follow-up period of 3.4 ± 3.0 years. The factors in the model were: age, lymph node stage, alcohol consumption and stage. Discrimination and calibration were satisfactory. A points system was developed to obtain the probability of recurrence of laryngeal glottic cancer in five years, using five clinical variables. Our system should be validated externally in other geographical areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMPSo..96..353R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMPSo..96..353R"><span>Fluctuation relation based continuum model for thermoviscoplasticity in metals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Roy Chowdhury, Shubhankar; Roy, Debasish; Reddy, J. N.; Srinivasa, Arun</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>A continuum plasticity model for metals is presented from considerations of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Of specific interest is the application of a fluctuation relation that subsumes the second law of thermodynamics en route to deriving the evolution equations for the internal state variables. The modelling itself is accomplished in a two-temperature framework that appears naturally by considering the thermodynamic system to be composed of two weakly interacting subsystems, viz. a kinetic vibrational subsystem corresponding to the atomic lattice vibrations and a configurational subsystem of the slower degrees of freedom describing the motion of defects in a plastically deforming metal. An apparently physical nature of the present model derives upon considering the dislocation density, which characterizes the configurational subsystem, as a state variable. Unlike the usual constitutive modelling aided by the second law of thermodynamics that merely provides a guideline to select the admissible (though possibly non-unique) processes, the present formalism strictly determines the process or the evolution equations for the thermodynamic states while including the effect of fluctuations. The continuum model accommodates finite deformation and describes plastic deformation in a yield-free setup. The theory here is essentially limited to face-centered cubic metals modelled with a single dislocation density as the internal variable. Limited numerical simulations are presented with validation against relevant experimental data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19406230','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19406230"><span>Artificial neural networks modelling the prednisolone nanoprecipitation in microfluidic reactors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ali, Hany S M; Blagden, Nicholas; York, Peter; Amani, Amir; Brook, Toni</p> <p>2009-06-28</p> <p>This study employs artificial neural networks (ANNs) to create a model to identify relationships between variables affecting drug nanoprecipitation using microfluidic reactors. The input variables examined were saturation levels of prednisolone, solvent and antisolvent flow rates, microreactor inlet angles and internal diameters, while particle size was the single output. ANNs software was used to analyse a set of data obtained by random selection of the variables. The developed model was then assessed using a separate set of validation data and provided good agreement with the observed results. The antisolvent flow rate was found to have the dominant role on determining final particle size.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.B22E..02K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.B22E..02K"><span>Internal Catchment Process Simulation in a Snow-Dominated Basin: Performance Evaluation with Spatiotemporally Variable Runoff Generation and Groundwater Dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kuras, P. K.; Weiler, M.; Alila, Y.; Spittlehouse, D.; Winkler, R.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>Hydrologic models have been increasingly used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models, however, are also plagued by uncertainty stemming from a limited understanding of hydrological processes in forested catchments and parameter equifinality is a common concern. This has created the necessity to improve our understanding of how hydrological systems work, through the development of hydrological measures, analyses and models that address the question: are we getting the right answers for the right reasons? Hence, physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic models should be validated with high-quality experimental data describing multiple concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) frequently used in forest management applications is an example of a process-based model used to address the aforementioned circumstances, and this study takes a novel approach at collectively examining the ability of a pre-calibrated model application to realistically simulate outlet flows along with the spatial-temporal variation of internal catchment processes including: continuous groundwater dynamics at 9 locations, stream and road network flow at 67 locations for six individual days throughout the freshet, and pre-melt season snow distribution. Model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuous efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data in the watershed. Road and stream network flows were very well simulated for a range of hydrological conditions, and the spatial distribution of the pre-melt season snowpack was in general agreement with observed values. The model was effective in simulating the spatial variability of subsurface flow generation, except at locations where strong stream-groundwater interactions existed, as the model is not capable of simulating such processes and subsurface flows always drain to the stream network. The model has proven overall to be quite capable in realistically simulating internal catchment processes in the watershed, which creates more confidence in future model applications exploring the effects of various forest management scenarios on the watershed's hydrological processes.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=SPIRAL+AND+MODEL&pg=5&id=EJ373775','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=SPIRAL+AND+MODEL&pg=5&id=EJ373775"><span>The Spiral-Interactive Program Evaluation Model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Khaleel, Ibrahim Adamu</p> <p>1988-01-01</p> <p>Describes the spiral interactive program evaluation model, which is designed to evaluate vocational-technical education programs in secondary schools in Nigeria. Program evaluation is defined; utility oriented and process oriented models for evaluation are described; and internal and external evaluative factors and variables that define each…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED309157.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED309157.pdf"><span>A Study of Factors Associated with Fifth-Year Teacher Interns' Concerns, Problems, and Stress.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Butler, E. Dean; Smith, Dennie L.</p> <p></p> <p>Fuller's theoretical model of concerns was the conceptual framework used in studying concerns, problems, and stress levels of three cohorts of interns undergoing transition into teaching. Independent variables examined included undergraduate grade point averages, subject area specializations, age, and personality. Subjects were fifth-year…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5809960','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5809960"><span>Conditional Mediation of Absorptive Capacity and Environment in International Entrepreneurial Orientation of Family Businesses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hernández-Perlines, Felipe; Xu, Wenkai</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This study analyzes the effect of conditional mediation of environment-absorptive capacity in international entrepreneurial orientation of family businesses. Results involve data from 218 Spanish family businesses, analyzed with SmartPLS 3.2.7 software. This paper presents a relevant contribution both to the academic field and the performance of family firms, helping to understand the process of transforming international entrepreneurial orientation into a better international performance through absorptive capacity while family businesses invest their efforts in aligning international entrepreneurial orientation and absorptive capacity with international results, bearing in mind the positive moderator effect of environment. The most relevant contribution of this work is to integrate in the same model the mediating effect of the absorption capacity and the moderating effect of the environment: the effect of the international entrepreneurial orientation on the international performance of family businesses improves with the mediation of the absorptive capacity (the variability of international performance goes from 32.5 to 40.6%) and the moderation of the environment (to variability of international performance goes from 40.6 to 45.3%). PMID:29472881</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29472881','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29472881"><span>Conditional Mediation of Absorptive Capacity and Environment in International Entrepreneurial Orientation of Family Businesses.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hernández-Perlines, Felipe; Xu, Wenkai</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This study analyzes the effect of conditional mediation of environment-absorptive capacity in international entrepreneurial orientation of family businesses. Results involve data from 218 Spanish family businesses, analyzed with SmartPLS 3.2.7 software. This paper presents a relevant contribution both to the academic field and the performance of family firms, helping to understand the process of transforming international entrepreneurial orientation into a better international performance through absorptive capacity while family businesses invest their efforts in aligning international entrepreneurial orientation and absorptive capacity with international results, bearing in mind the positive moderator effect of environment. The most relevant contribution of this work is to integrate in the same model the mediating effect of the absorption capacity and the moderating effect of the environment: the effect of the international entrepreneurial orientation on the international performance of family businesses improves with the mediation of the absorptive capacity (the variability of international performance goes from 32.5 to 40.6%) and the moderation of the environment (to variability of international performance goes from 40.6 to 45.3%).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H13I1695T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H13I1695T"><span>Stochastically-forced Decadal Variability in Australian Rainfall</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Taschetto, A.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Iconic Australian dry and wet periods were driven by anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as the worst short-term drought in the southeast in 1982 associated with the strong El Niño and the widespread "Big Wet" in 1974 linked with a La Niña event. The association with oceanic conditions makes droughts predictable to some extent. However, prediction can be difficult when there is no clear external forcing such as El Niños. Can dry spells be triggered and maintained with no ocean memory? In this study, we investigate the potential role of internal multi-century atmospheric variability in controlling the frequency, duration and intensity of long-term dry and wet spells over Australia. Two multi-century-scale simulations were performed with the NCAR CESM: (1) a fully-coupled simulation (CPLD) and (2) an atmospheric simulation forced by a seasonal SST climatology derived from the coupled experiment (ACGM). Results reveal that droughts and wet spells can indeed be generated by internal variability of the atmosphere. Those internally generated events are less severe than those forced by oceanic variability, however the duration of dry and wet spells longer than 3 years is comparable with and without the ocean memory. Large-scale ocean modes of variability seem to play an important role in producing continental-scale rainfall impacts over Australia. While the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role in generating droughts in the fully coupled model, perturbations of monsoonal winds seem to be the main trigger of dry spells in the AGCM case. Droughts in the mid-latitude regions such as Tasmania can be driven by perturbations in the Southern Annular Mode, not necessarily linked to oceanic conditions even in the fully-coupled model. The mechanisms behind internally-driven mega-droughts and mega-wets will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRC..123..688G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRC..123..688G"><span>Kilometric Scale Modeling of the North West European Shelf Seas: Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Internal Tides</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guihou, K.; Polton, J.; Harle, J.; Wakelin, S.; O'Dea, E.; Holt, J.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The North West European Shelf break acts as a barrier to the transport and exchange between the open ocean and the shelf seas. The strong spatial variability of these exchange processes is hard to fully explore using observations, and simulations generally are too coarse to simulate the fine-scale processes over the whole region. In this context, under the FASTNEt program, a new NEMO configuration of the North West European Shelf and Atlantic Margin at 1/60° (˜1.8 km) has been developed, with the objective to better understand and quantify the seasonal and interannual variability of shelf break processes. The capability of this configuration to reproduce the seasonal cycle in SST, the barotropic tide, and fine-resolution temperature profiles is assessed against a basin-scale (1/12°, ˜9 km) configuration and a standard regional configuration (7 km resolution). The seasonal cycle is well reproduced in all configurations though the fine-resolution allows the simulation of smaller scale processes. Time series of temperature at various locations on the shelf show the presence of internal waves with a strong spatiotemporal variability. Spectral analysis of the internal waves reveals peaks at the diurnal, semidiurnal, inertial, and quarter-diurnal bands, which are only realistically reproduced in the new configuration. Tidally induced pycnocline variability is diagnosed in the model and shown to vary with the spring neap cycle with mean displacement amplitudes in excess of 2 m for 30% of the stratified domain. With sufficiently fine resolution, internal tides are shown to be generated at numerous bathymetric features resulting in a complex pycnocline displacement superposition pattern.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..782A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..782A"><span>The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Amaya, Dillon J.; Siler, Nicholas; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J.</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........71N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........71N"><span>Internal state variable plasticity-damage modeling of AISI 4140 steel including microstructure-property relations: temperature and strain rate effects</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nacif el Alaoui, Reda</p> <p></p> <p>Mechanical structure-property relations have been quantified for AISI 4140 steel. under different strain rates and temperatures. The structure-property relations were used. to calibrate a microstructure-based internal state variable plasticity-damage model for. monotonic tension, compression and torsion plasticity, as well as damage evolution. Strong stress state and temperature dependences were observed for the AISI 4140 steel. Tension tests on three different notched Bridgman specimens were undertaken to study. the damage-triaxiality dependence for model validation purposes. Fracture surface. analysis was performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) to quantify the void. nucleation and void sizes in the different specimens. The stress-strain behavior exhibited. a fairly large applied stress state (tension, compression dependence, and torsion), a. moderate temperature dependence, and a relatively small strain rate dependence.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1164O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1164O"><span>Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Olson, R.; An, S. I.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1173L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1173L"><span>Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16595846','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16595846"><span>Attributional style as a mediator between parental abuse risk and child internalizing symptomatology.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rodriguez, Christina M</p> <p>2006-05-01</p> <p>This study examined a model wherein children's attributional style mediates the relationship between parental physical child-abuse risk and children's internalizing problems. Using structural equation modeling, three indices of abuse risk were selected (child abuse potential, physical discipline use, and dysfunctional parenting style) and two indices of children's internalizing problems (depression and anxiety). The sample included 75 parent-child dyads, in which parents reported on their abuse risk and children independently completed measures of depressive and anxious symptomatology and a measure on their attributional style. Findings supported the model that children's attributional style for positive events (but not negative events) partially mediated the relationship between abuse risk and internalizing symptoms, with significant direct and indirect effects of abuse risk on internalizing symptomatology. Future directions to continue evaluating additional mediators and other possible contextual variables are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040086072&hterms=viscoelastic&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dviscoelastic','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040086072&hterms=viscoelastic&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dviscoelastic"><span>A Viscoelastic Hybrid Shell Finite Element</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, Arthur</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>An elastic large displacement thick-shell hybrid finite element is modified to allow for the calculation of viscoelastic stresses. Internal strain variables are introduced at he element's stress nodes and are employed to construct a viscous material model. First order ordinary differential equations relate the internal strain variables to the corresponding elastic strains at the stress nodes. The viscous stresses are computed from the internal strain variables using viscous moduli which are a fraction of the elastic moduli. The energy dissipated by the action of the viscous stresses in included in the mixed variational functional. Nonlinear quasi-static viscous equilibrium equations are then obtained. Previously developed Taylor expansions of the equilibrium equations are modified to include the viscous terms. A predictor-corrector time marching solution algorithm is employed to solve the algebraic-differential equations. The viscous shell element is employed to numerically simulate a stair-step loading and unloading of an aircraft tire in contact with a frictionless surface.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1228364','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1228364"><span>Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Anderson, Bruce T.</p> <p>2015-12-11</p> <p>Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantiallymore » from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H53J1612S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H53J1612S"><span>Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JGRD..11310105L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008JGRD..11310105L"><span>Assessment of surface air temperature over the Arctic Ocean in reanalysis and IPCC AR4 model simulations with IABP/POLES observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Jiping; Zhang, Zhanhai; Hu, Yongyun; Chen, Liqi; Dai, Yongjiu; Ren, Xiaobo</p> <p>2008-05-01</p> <p>The surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic Ocean in reanalyses and global climate model simulations was assessed using the International Arctic Buoy Programme/Polar Exchange at the Sea Surface (IABP/POLES) observations for the period 1979-1999. The reanalyses, including the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis II (NCEP2) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast 40-year Reanalysis (ERA40), show encouraging agreement with the IABP/POLES observations, although some spatiotemporal discrepancies are noteworthy. The reanalyses have warm annual mean biases and underestimate the observed interannual SAT variability in summer. Additionally, NCEP2 shows an excessive warming trend. Most model simulations (coordinated by the International Panel on Climate Change for its Fourth Assessment Report) reproduce the annual mean, seasonal cycle, and trend of the observed SAT reasonably well, particularly the multi-model ensemble mean. However, large discrepancies are found. Some models have the annual mean SAT biases far exceeding the standard deviation of the observed interannul SAT variability and the across-model standard deviation. Spatially, the largest inter-model variance of the annual mean SAT is found over the North Pole, Greenland Sea, Barents Sea and Baffin Bay. Seasonally, a large spread of the simulated SAT among the models is found in winter. The models show interannual variability and decadal trend of various amplitudes, and can not capture the observed dominant SAT mode variability and cooling trend in winter. Further discussions of the possible attributions to the identified SAT errors for some models suggest that the model's performance in the sea ice simulation is an important factor.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20060021602','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20060021602"><span>Large Engine Technology (LET) Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Contingency Power Materials Knowledge and Lifing Methodologies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Spring, Samuel D.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>This report documents the results of an experimental program conducted on two advanced metallic alloy systems (Rene' 142 directionally solidified alloy (DS) and Rene' N6 single crystal alloy) and the characterization of two distinct internal state variable inelastic constitutive models. The long term objective of the study was to develop a computational life prediction methodology that can integrate the obtained material data. A specialized test matrix for characterizing advanced unified viscoplastic models was specified and conducted. This matrix included strain controlled tensile tests with intermittent relaxtion test with 2 hr hold times, constant stress creep tests, stepped creep tests, mixed creep and plasticity tests, cyclic temperature creep tests and tests in which temperature overloads were present to simulate actual operation conditions for validation of the models. The selected internal state variable models where shown to be capable of representing the material behavior exhibited by the experimental results; however the program ended prior to final validation of the models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1427767','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1427767"><span>Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef</p> <p></p> <p>Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1427767-role-perturbing-ocean-initial-condition-simulated-regional-sea-level-change','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1427767-role-perturbing-ocean-initial-condition-simulated-regional-sea-level-change"><span>Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...</p> <p>2017-06-05</p> <p>Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=search&pg=2&id=EJ1007394','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=search&pg=2&id=EJ1007394"><span>Job Search Self-Efficacy of East Asian International Graduate Students</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Lin, Yi-Jiun; Flores, Lisa Y.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Using a sample of 86 East Asian international graduate students, this study examined Bandura's perceived self-efficacy model (1986) in the domain of job search self-efficacy and tested the mediating effects of job search self-efficacy in the relationship between efficacy source variables and job search behaviors. Results show that both performance…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=methods+AND+mathematics+AND+Japan&pg=2&id=EJ858847','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=methods+AND+mathematics+AND+Japan&pg=2&id=EJ858847"><span>Student and School Factors Affecting Mathematics Achievement: International Comparisons between Korea, Japan and the USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Shin, Jongho; Lee, Hyunjoo; Kim, Yongnam</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The purpose of the study was to comparatively investigate student- and school-level factors affecting mathematics achievement of Korean, Japanese and American students. For international comparisons, the PISA 2003 data were analysed by using the Hierarchical Linear Modeling method. The variables of competitive-learning preference, instrumental…</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950026495','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950026495"><span>Low-order nonlinear dynamic model of IC engine-variable pitch propeller system for general aviation aircraft</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Richard, Jacques C.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>This paper presents a dynamic model of an internal combustion engine coupled to a variable pitch propeller. The low-order, nonlinear time-dependent model is useful for simulating the propulsion system of general aviation single-engine light aircraft. This model is suitable for investigating engine diagnostics and monitoring and for control design and development. Furthermore, the model may be extended to provide a tool for the study of engine emissions, fuel economy, component effects, alternative fuels, alternative engine cycles, flight simulators, sensors, and actuators. Results show that the model provides a reasonable representation of the propulsion system dynamics from zero to 10 Hertz.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2308Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2308Y"><span>On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yuan, Naiming; Huang, Yan; Duan, Jianping; Zhu, Congwen; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Jürg</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>Slowing variability in climate system is an important source of climate predictability. However, it is still challenging for current dynamical models to fully capture the variability as well as its impacts on future climate. In this study, instead of simulating the internal multi-scale oscillations in dynamical models, we discussed the effects of internal variability in terms of climate memory. By decomposing climate state x(t) at a certain time point t into memory part M(t) and non-memory part ɛ (t) , climate memory effects from the past 30 years on climate prediction are quantified. For variables with strong climate memory, high variance (over 20% ) in x(t) is explained by the memory part M(t), and the effects of climate memory are non-negligible for most climate variables, but the precipitation. Regarding of multi-steps climate prediction, a power law decay of the explained variance was found, indicating long-lasting climate memory effects. The explained variances by climate memory can remain to be higher than 10% for more than 10 time steps. Accordingly, past climate conditions can affect both short (monthly) and long-term (interannual, decadal, or even multidecadal) climate predictions. With the memory part M(t) precisely calculated from Fractional Integral Statistical Model, one only needs to focus on the non-memory part ɛ (t) , which is an important quantity that determines climate predictive skills.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29676063','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29676063"><span>Development and internal validation of a side-specific, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based nomogram for the prediction of extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Martini, Alberto; Gupta, Akriti; Lewis, Sara C; Cumarasamy, Shivaram; Haines, Kenneth G; Briganti, Alberto; Montorsi, Francesco; Tewari, Ashutosh K</p> <p>2018-04-19</p> <p>To develop a nomogram for predicting side-specific extracapsular extension (ECE) for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy. We retrospectively analysed data from 561 patients who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy between February 2014 and October 2015. To develop a side-specific predictive model, we considered the prostatic lobes separately. Four variables were included: prostate-specific antigen; highest ipsilateral biopsy Gleason grade; highest ipsilateral percentage core involvement; and ECE on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI). A multivariable logistic regression analysis was fitted to predict side-specific ECE. A nomogram was built based on the coefficients of the logit function. Internal validation was performed using 'leave-one-out' cross-validation. Calibration was graphically investigated. The decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the net clinical benefit. The study population consisted of 829 side-specific cases, after excluding negative biopsy observations (n = 293). ECE was reported on mpMRI and final pathology in 115 (14%) and 142 (17.1%) cases, respectively. Among these, mpMRI was able to predict ECE correctly in 57 (40.1%) cases. All variables in the model except highest percentage core involvement were predictors of ECE (all P ≤ 0.006). All variables were considered for inclusion in the nomogram. After internal validation, the area under the curve was 82.11%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and improved clinical risk prediction, especially when compared with relying on mpMRI prediction of ECE alone. When retrospectively applying the nomogram-derived probability, using a 20% threshold for performing nerve-sparing, nine out of 14 positive surgical margins (PSMs) at the site of ECE resulted above the threshold. We developed an easy-to-use model for the prediction of side-specific ECE, and hope it serves as a tool for planning nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy and in the reduction of PSM in future series. © 2018 The Authors BJU International © 2018 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JOUC...17..219L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JOUC...17..219L"><span>Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1260532-evaluating-effect-internal-aperture-variability-transport-kilometer-scale-discrete-fracture-networks','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1260532-evaluating-effect-internal-aperture-variability-transport-kilometer-scale-discrete-fracture-networks"><span>Evaluating the effect of internal aperture variability on transport in kilometer scale discrete fracture networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Makedonska, Nataliia; Hyman, Jeffrey D.; Karra, Satish; ...</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>The apertures of natural fractures in fractured rock are highly heterogeneous. However, in-fracture aperture variability is often neglected in flow and transport modeling and individual fractures are assumed to have uniform aperture distribution. The relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within kilometer-scale fracture networks has been under debate for a long time, since the flow in each single fracture is controlled not only by in-fracture variability but also by boundary conditions. Computational limitations have previously prohibited researchers from investigating the relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within large-scale fracture networks. We addressmore » this question by incorporating internal heterogeneity of individual fractures into flow simulations within kilometer scale three-dimensional fracture networks, where fracture intensity, P 32 (ratio between total fracture area and domain volume) is between 0.027 and 0.031 [1/m]. The recently developed discrete fracture network (DFN) simulation capability, dfnWorks, is used to generate kilometer scale DFNs that include in-fracture aperture variability represented by a stationary log-normal stochastic field with various correlation lengths and variances. The Lagrangian transport parameters, non-reacting travel time, , and cumulative retention, , are calculated along particles streamlines. As a result, it is observed that due to local flow channeling early particle travel times are more sensitive to in-fracture aperture variability than the tails of travel time distributions, where no significant effect of the in-fracture aperture variations and spatial correlation length is observed.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1260532','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1260532"><span>Evaluating the effect of internal aperture variability on transport in kilometer scale discrete fracture networks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Makedonska, Nataliia; Hyman, Jeffrey D.; Karra, Satish</p> <p></p> <p>The apertures of natural fractures in fractured rock are highly heterogeneous. However, in-fracture aperture variability is often neglected in flow and transport modeling and individual fractures are assumed to have uniform aperture distribution. The relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within kilometer-scale fracture networks has been under debate for a long time, since the flow in each single fracture is controlled not only by in-fracture variability but also by boundary conditions. Computational limitations have previously prohibited researchers from investigating the relative importance of in-fracture variability in flow and transport modeling within large-scale fracture networks. We addressmore » this question by incorporating internal heterogeneity of individual fractures into flow simulations within kilometer scale three-dimensional fracture networks, where fracture intensity, P 32 (ratio between total fracture area and domain volume) is between 0.027 and 0.031 [1/m]. The recently developed discrete fracture network (DFN) simulation capability, dfnWorks, is used to generate kilometer scale DFNs that include in-fracture aperture variability represented by a stationary log-normal stochastic field with various correlation lengths and variances. The Lagrangian transport parameters, non-reacting travel time, , and cumulative retention, , are calculated along particles streamlines. As a result, it is observed that due to local flow channeling early particle travel times are more sensitive to in-fracture aperture variability than the tails of travel time distributions, where no significant effect of the in-fracture aperture variations and spatial correlation length is observed.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28674646','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28674646"><span>Construction, internal validation and implementation in a mobile application of a scoring system to predict nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mares-García, Emma; Palazón-Bru, Antonio; Folgado-de la Rosa, David Manuel; Pereira-Expósito, Avelino; Martínez-Martín, Álvaro; Cortés-Castell, Ernesto; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Other studies have assessed nonadherence to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), but none has developed a screening test for its detection. To construct and internally validate a predictive model for nonadherence to PPIs. This prospective observational study with a one-month follow-up was carried out in 2013 in Spain, and included 302 patients with a prescription for PPIs. The primary variable was nonadherence to PPIs (pill count). Secondary variables were gender, age, antidepressants, type of PPI, non-guideline-recommended prescription (NGRP) of PPIs, and total number of drugs. With the secondary variables, a binary logistic regression model to predict nonadherence was constructed and adapted to a points system. The ROC curve, with its area (AUC), was calculated and the optimal cut-off point was established. The points system was internally validated through 1,000 bootstrap samples and implemented in a mobile application (Android). The points system had three prognostic variables: total number of drugs, NGRP of PPIs, and antidepressants. The AUC was 0.87 (95% CI [0.83-0.91], p < 0.001). The test yielded a sensitivity of 0.80 (95% CI [0.70-0.87]) and a specificity of 0.82 (95% CI [0.76-0.87]). The three parameters were very similar in the bootstrap validation. A points system to predict nonadherence to PPIs has been constructed, internally validated and implemented in a mobile application. Provided similar results are obtained in external validation studies, we will have a screening tool to detect nonadherence to PPIs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28648564','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28648564"><span>Optimal management of nutrient reserves in microorganisms under time-varying environmental conditions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nev, Olga A; Nev, Oleg A; van den Berg, Hugo A</p> <p>2017-09-21</p> <p>Intracellular reserves are a conspicuous feature of many bacteria; such internal stores are often present in the form of inclusions in which polymeric storage compounds are accumulated. Such reserves tend to increase in times of plenty and be used up in times of scarcity. Mathematical models that describe the dynamical nature of reserve build-up and use are known as "cell quota," "dynamic energy/nutrient budget," or "variable-internal-stores" models. Here we present a stoichiometrically consistent macro-chemical model that accounts for variable stores as well as adaptive allocation of building blocks to various types of catalytic machinery. The model posits feedback loops linking expression of assimilatory machinery to reserve density. The precise form of the "regulatory law" at the heart of such a loop expresses how the cell manages internal stores. We demonstrate how this "regulatory law" can be recovered from experimental data using several empirical data sets. We find that stores should be expected to be negligibly small in stable growth-sustaining environments, but prominent in environments characterised by marked fluctuations on time scales commensurate with the inherent dynamic time scale of the organismal system. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS31A1378L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS31A1378L"><span>Comparison of internal wave properties calculated by Boussinesq equations with/without rigid-lid assumption</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, C. M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Wave properties predicted by the rigid-lid and the free-surface Boussinesq equations for a two-fluid system are theoretically calculated and compared in this study. Boussinesq model is generally applied to numerically simulate surface waves in coastal regions to provide credible information for disaster prevention and breaker design. As for internal waves, Liu et al. (2008) and Liu (2016) respectively derived a free-surface model and a rigid-lid Boussinesq models for a two-fluid system. The former and the latter models respectively contain four and three key variables which may result in different results and efficiency while simulating. Therefore, present study shows the results theoretically measured by these two models to provide more detailed observation and useful information for motions of internal waves.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC21A..06O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC21A..06O"><span>Wintertime atmospheric response to decadal SST anomalies in the North Pacific frontal zone and its relationship to dominant atmospheric internal variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Okajima, S.; Nakamura, H.; Nishii, K.; Miyasaka, T.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; Taguchi, B.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>A decadal-scale warm SST anomaly observed in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) tends to accompany a basin-scale anticyclonic anomaly in the troposphere that peaks in January. A set of sensitivity experiments conducted with an AGCM simulates an anticyclonic ensemble response over the North Pacific in January. As observed, the simulated anticyclonic response is in equivalent barotropic structure and maintained mainly through energy conversion from the ensemble mean circulation realized under the climatological SST, suggesting that the anomaly may have a characteristic of a dynamical mode. Conversion of both available potential energy (APE) and kinetic energy (KE) from the mean flow is important for the observed anomaly, while only the former is important for the model response. This is because the model response is located to the north of the jet core region whereas the observed anomaly is straddling the jet exit region, which appears to be in correspondence to the northwestward displacement of the center of the dominant atmospheric internal variability in our model relative to the observed center. Transient eddy feedback forcing also acts to maintain the observed anomaly rather efficiently, while its efficiency is much lower for the simulated response, which seems to be consistent with the poleward displacement of the anticyclonic response from the jet and stormtrack axes. A multi-decadal integration of our coupled GCM also suggests that atmospheric internal variability may be important for determining atmospheric response to the decadal SST variability of the SAFZ.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040013148&hterms=Koontz&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DKoontz','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040013148&hterms=Koontz&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DKoontz"><span>Specifying the ISS Plasma Environment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Minow, Joseph I.; Diekmann, Anne; Neergaard, Linda; Bui, Them; Mikatarian, Ronald; Barsamian, Hagop; Koontz, Steven</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IN) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PApGe.164.2117A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PApGe.164.2117A"><span>Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ajayamohan, R. S.</p> <p>2007-10-01</p> <p>Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3760460','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3760460"><span>Evaluation of Normalization Methods to Pave the Way Towards Large-Scale LC-MS-Based Metabolomics Profiling Experiments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Valkenborg, Dirk; Baggerman, Geert; Vanaerschot, Manu; Witters, Erwin; Dujardin, Jean-Claude; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Berg, Maya</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Abstract Combining liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics experiments that were collected over a long period of time remains problematic due to systematic variability between LC-MS measurements. Until now, most normalization methods for LC-MS data are model-driven, based on internal standards or intermediate quality control runs, where an external model is extrapolated to the dataset of interest. In the first part of this article, we evaluate several existing data-driven normalization approaches on LC-MS metabolomics experiments, which do not require the use of internal standards. According to variability measures, each normalization method performs relatively well, showing that the use of any normalization method will greatly improve data-analysis originating from multiple experimental runs. In the second part, we apply cyclic-Loess normalization to a Leishmania sample. This normalization method allows the removal of systematic variability between two measurement blocks over time and maintains the differential metabolites. In conclusion, normalization allows for pooling datasets from different measurement blocks over time and increases the statistical power of the analysis, hence paving the way to increase the scale of LC-MS metabolomics experiments. From our investigation, we recommend data-driven normalization methods over model-driven normalization methods, if only a few internal standards were used. Moreover, data-driven normalization methods are the best option to normalize datasets from untargeted LC-MS experiments. PMID:23808607</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2593053','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2593053"><span>The conceptual framework of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Policy Evaluation Project</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fong, G T; Cummings, K M; Borland, R; Hastings, G; Hyland, A; Giovino, G A; Hammond, D; Thompson, M E</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>This paper describes the conceptual model that underlies the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC Project), whose mission is to measure the psychosocial and behavioural impact of key policies of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) among adult smokers, and in some countries, among adult non‐smokers and among youth. The evaluation framework utilises multiple country controls, a longitudinal design, and a pre‐specified, theory‐driven conceptual model to test hypotheses about the anticipated effects of specific policies. The ITC Project consists of parallel prospective cohort surveys of representative samples of adult smokers currently in nine countries (inhabited by over 45% of the world's smokers), with other countries being added in the future. Collectively, the ITC Surveys constitute the first‐ever international cohort study of tobacco use. The conceptual model of the ITC Project draws on the psychosocial and health communication literature and assumes that tobacco control policies influence tobacco related behaviours through a causal chain of psychological events, with some variables more closely related to the policy itself (policy‐specific variables) and other variables that are more downstream from the policy, which have been identified by health behaviour and social psychological theories as being important causal precursors of behaviour (psychosocial mediators). We discuss the objectives of the ITC Project and its potential for building the evidence base for the FCTC. PMID:16754944</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016HTMP...35..381L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016HTMP...35..381L"><span>Simulation of Thermo-viscoplastic Behaviors for AISI 4140 Steel</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Hong-Bin; Feng, Yun-Li</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The thermo-viscoplastic behaviors of AISI 4140 steel are investigated over wide ranges of strain rate and deformation temperature by isothermal compression tests. Based on the experimental results, a unified viscoplastic constitutive model is proposed to describe the hot compressive deformation behaviors of the studied steel. In order to reasonably evaluate the work hardening behaviors, a strain hardening material constant (h0) is expressed as a function of deformation temperature and strain rate in the proposed constitutive model. Also, the sensitivity of initial value of internal variable s to the deformation temperature is discussed. Furthermore, it is found that the initial value of internal variable s can be expressed as a linear function of deformation temperature. Comparisons between the measured and predicted results confirm that the proposed constitutive model can give an accurate and precise estimate of the inelastic stress-strain relationships for the studied high-strength steel.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JChPh.133o4112R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JChPh.133o4112R"><span>Hindered rotor models with variable kinetic functions for accurate thermodynamic and kinetic predictions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Reinisch, Guillaume; Leyssale, Jean-Marc; Vignoles, Gérard L.</p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>We present an extension of some popular hindered rotor (HR) models, namely, the one-dimensional HR (1DHR) and the degenerated two-dimensional HR (d2DHR) models, allowing for a simple and accurate treatment of internal rotations. This extension, based on the use of a variable kinetic function in the Hamiltonian instead of a constant reduced moment of inertia, is extremely suitable in the case of rocking/wagging motions involved in dissociation or atom transfer reactions. The variable kinetic function is first introduced in the framework of a classical 1DHR model. Then, an effective temperature and potential dependent constant is proposed in the cases of quantum 1DHR and classical d2DHR models. These methods are finally applied to the atom transfer reaction SiCl3+BCl3→SiCl4+BCl2. We show, for this particular case, that a proper accounting of internal rotations greatly improves the accuracy of thermodynamic and kinetic predictions. Moreover, our results confirm (i) that using a suitably defined kinetic function appears to be very adapted to such problems; (ii) that the separability assumption of independent rotations seems justified; and (iii) that a quantum mechanical treatment is not a substantial improvement with respect to a classical one.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC24B2147M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC24B2147M"><span>Summer U.S. Surface Air Temperature Variability: Controlling Factors and AMIP Simulation Biases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Merrifield, A.; Xie, S. P.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>This study documents and investigates biases in simulating summer surface air temperature (SAT) variability over the continental U.S. in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate regression analyses are used to assess the relative importance of circulation and the land surface feedback at setting summer SAT over a 30-year period (1979-2008). In observations, regions of high SAT variability are closely associated with midtropospheric highs and subsidence, consistent with adiabatic theory (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004, Lau and Nath 2012). Preliminary analysis shows the majority of the AMIP models feature high SAT variability over the central U.S., displaced south and/or west of observed centers of action (COAs). SAT COAs in models tend to be concomitant with regions of high sensible heat flux variability, suggesting an excessive land surface feedback in these models modulate U.S. summer SAT. Additionally, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a role in forcing the leading EOF mode for summer SAT, in concert with internal atmospheric variability. There is evidence that models respond to different SST patterns than observed. Addressing issues with the bulk land surface feedback and the SST-forced component of atmospheric variability may be key to improving model skill in simulating summer SAT variability over the U.S.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940007010','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940007010"><span>A Modeling Investigation of Thermal and Strain Induced Recovery and Nonlinear Hardening in Potential Based Viscoplasticity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Wilt, T. E.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>Specific forms for both the Gibb's and the complementary dissipation potentials were chosen such that a complete potential based multiaxial, isothermal, viscoplastic model was obtained. This model in general possesses three internal state variables (two scalars associated with dislocation density and one tensor associated with dislocation motion) both thermal and dynamic recovery mechanisms, and nonlinear kinematic hardening. This general model, although possessing associated flow and evolutionary laws, is shown to emulate three distinct classes of theories found in the literature, by modification of the driving threshold function F. A parametric study was performed on a specialized nondimensional multiaxial form containing only a single tensorial internal state variable (i.e., internal stress). The study was conducted with the idea of examining the impact of including a strain-induced recovery mechanism and the compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, on the uniaxial and multiaxial response. One important finding was that inclusion of strain recovery provided the needed flexibility in modeling stress-strain and creep response of metals at low homologous temperatures, without adversely affecting the high temperature response. Furthermore, for nonproportional loading paths, the inclusion of the compliance operator had a significant influence on the multiaxial response, but had no influence on either uniaxial or proportional load histories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3411H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3411H"><span>Long-term Internal Variability of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean System</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. Further, such variability strengthens in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, which may further hinder detection of anthropogenic climate signals in that region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAVSO..43..106L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JAVSO..43..106L"><span>AAVSO and the International Year of Light (Poster abstract)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Larsen, K.</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>(Abstract only) The United Nations General Assembly has officially designated 2015 to be the International Year of Light (IYL). Modeled in part on the earlier International Year of Astronomy (IYA), this cross-disciplinary, international educational and outreach project will celebrate the importance of light in science, technology, cultural heritage, and the arts. It ties in with several important anniversaries, such as the 1000th anniversary of the publication of Ibn Al Haythem's “Book of Optics,” the 150th anniversary of Maxwell's equations of electromagnetism, the centenary of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, and the 50th anniversary of the discovery of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation. Because variable stars are defined as such due to the variability of the light we observe from them, all of the AAVSO programs, regardless of type of variable or instrumentation (eye, DSLR, PEP, or CCD) have natural tie-ins to the study of light. This poster will highlight a number of specific ways that AAVSO members and the organization as a whole can become intimately involved with this unique outreach opportunity.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/15868','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/15868"><span>Evaluation of habitat suitability index models for assessing biotic resources</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>John C. Rennie; Joseph D. Clark; James M. Sweeney</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models are evaluated for assessing the biotic resources on Champion International Corporation (CIC) lands with data from a standard and an expanded timber inventory. Forty HSI models for 34 species that occur in the Southern Appalachians have been identified from the literature. All of the variables for 14 models are provided (...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26928290','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26928290"><span>Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007A%26A...465..879R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007A%26A...465..879R"><span>High resolution simulations of a variable HH jet</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Raga, A. C.; de Colle, F.; Kajdič, P.; Esquivel, A.; Cantó, J.</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>Context: In many papers, the flows in Herbig-Haro (HH) jets have been modeled as collimated outflows with a time-dependent ejection. In particular, a supersonic variability of the ejection velocity leads to the production of "internal working surfaces" which (for appropriate forms of the time-variability) can produce emitting knots that resemble the chains of knots observed along HH jets. Aims: In this paper, we present axisymmetric simulations of an "internal working surface" in a radiative jet (produced by an ejection velocity variability). We concentrate on a given parameter set (i.e., on a jet with a constante ejection density, and a sinusoidal velocity variability with a 20 yr period and a 40 km s-1 half-amplitude), and carry out a study of the behaviour of the solution for increasing numerical resolutions. Methods: In our simulations, we solve the gasdynamic equations together with a 17-species atomic/ionic network, and we are therefore able to compute emission coefficients for different emission lines. Results: We compute 3 adaptive grid simulations, with 20, 163 and 1310 grid points (at the highest grid resolution) across the initial jet radius. From these simulations we see that successively more complex structures are obtained for increasing numerical resolutions. Such an effect is seen in the stratifications of the flow variables as well as in the predicted emission line intensity maps. Conclusions: .We find that while the detailed structure of an internal working surface depends on resolution, the predicted emission line luminosities (integrated over the volume of the working surface) are surprisingly stable. This is definitely good news for the future computation of predictions from radiative jet models for carrying out comparisons with observations of HH objects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25785556','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25785556"><span>Assessing human variability in kinetics for exposures to multiple environmental chemicals: a physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling case study with dichloromethane, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and m-xylene.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Valcke, Mathieu; Haddad, Sami</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The objective of this study was to compare the magnitude of interindividual variability in internal dose for inhalation exposure to single versus multiple chemicals. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for adults (AD), neonates (NEO), toddlers (TODD), and pregnant women (PW) were used to simulate inhalation exposure to "low" (RfC-like) or "high" (AEGL-like) air concentrations of benzene (Bz) or dichloromethane (DCM), along with various levels of toluene alone or toluene with ethylbenzene and xylene. Monte Carlo simulations were performed and distributions of relevant internal dose metrics of either Bz or DCM were computed. Area under the blood concentration of parent compound versus time curve (AUC)-based variability in AD, TODD, and PW rose for Bz when concomitant "low" exposure to mixtures of increasing complexities occurred (coefficient of variation (CV) = 16-24%, vs. 12-15% for Bz alone), but remained unchanged considering DCM. Conversely, AUC-based CV in NEO fell (15 to 5% for Bz; 12 to 6% for DCM). Comparable trends were observed considering production of metabolites (AMET), except for NEO's CYP2E1-mediated metabolites of Bz, where an increased CV was observed (20 to 71%). For "high" exposure scenarios, Cmax-based variability of Bz and DCM remained unchanged in AD and PW, but decreased in NEO (CV= 11-16% to 2-6%) and TODD (CV= 12-13% to 7-9%). Conversely, AMET-based variability for both substrates rose in every subpopulation. This study analyzed for the first time the impact of multiple exposures on interindividual variability in toxicokinetics. Evidence indicates that this impact depends upon chemical concentrations and biochemical properties, as well as the subpopulation and internal dose metrics considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA24A..04O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA24A..04O"><span>Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1431215-evolving-effective-stress-approach-anisotropic-distortional-hardening','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1431215-evolving-effective-stress-approach-anisotropic-distortional-hardening"><span>An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.</p> <p>2018-03-11</p> <p>A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1431215-evolving-effective-stress-approach-anisotropic-distortional-hardening','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1431215-evolving-effective-stress-approach-anisotropic-distortional-hardening"><span>An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.</p> <p></p> <p>A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Effective+AND+social+AND+media&pg=3&id=EJ1059483','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Effective+AND+social+AND+media&pg=3&id=EJ1059483"><span>Longitudinal Relationships among Internalization of the Media Ideal, Peer Social Comparison, and Body Dissatisfaction: Implications for the Tripartite Influence Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Rodgers, Rachel F.; McLean, Siân A.; Paxton, Susan J.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Sociocultural theory of body dissatisfaction posits that internalization of the media ideal and appearance comparison are predictors of body dissatisfaction, a key risk factor for eating disorders. However, no data exist regarding the longitudinal relationships between these variables. The aim of this study was to explore longitudinal…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=cross+AND+cultural+AND+chinese+AND+family&pg=4&id=EJ725512','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=cross+AND+cultural+AND+chinese+AND+family&pg=4&id=EJ725512"><span>Classroom Instruction and Science Achievement in Japan, Hong Kong, and Chinese Taipei: Results from the TIMSS 1999 Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>House, J. Daniel</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>The Third International Mathematics and Science Study represents the most comprehensive international assessment of educational contexts and student achievement yet conducted. As part of the examination of the effects of contextual factors on student achievement, a model was constructed that considered the effects of variables such as…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2845F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2845F"><span>Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210176','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210176"><span>The actuation of a biomimetic poly(vinyl alcohol)poly(acrylic acid) gel.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Marra, S P; Ramesh, K T; Douglas, A S</p> <p>2002-02-15</p> <p>Active polymer gels expand and contract in response to certain environmental stimuli, such as the application of an electric field or a change in the pH level of the surroundings. This ability to achieve large, reversible deformations with no external mechanical loading has generated much interest in the use of these gels as biomimetic actuators and "artificial muscles". In previous work, a thermodynamically consistent finite-elastic constitutive model has been developed to describe the mechanical and actuation behaviours of active polymer gels. The mechanical properties were characterized by a free-energy function, and the model uses an evolving internal variable to describe the actuation state. In this work, an evolution law for the internal variable is determined from free actuation experiments on a poly(vinyl alcohol)poly(acrylic acid) (PVAPAA) gel. The complete finite-elastic/evolution law constitutive model is then used to predict the response of the PVA-PAA gel to isotonic and isometric loading and actuation. The model is shown to give relatively good agreement with experimental results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23413935','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23413935"><span>An integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making in emergency settings.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wolf, Lisa</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>To explore the relationship between multiple variables within a model of critical thinking and moral reasoning. A quantitative descriptive correlational design using a purposive sample of 200 emergency nurses. Measured variables were accuracy in clinical decision-making, moral reasoning, perceived care environment, and demographics. Analysis was by bivariate correlation using Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficients, chi square and multiple linear regression analysis. The elements as identified in the integrated ethically-driven environmental model of clinical decision-making (IEDEM-CD) corrected depict moral reasoning and environment of care as factors significantly affecting accuracy in decision-making. The integrated, ethically driven environmental model of clinical decision making is a framework useful for predicting clinical decision making accuracy for emergency nurses in practice, with further implications in education, research and policy. A diagnostic and therapeutic framework for identifying and remediating individual and environmental challenges to accurate clinical decision making. © 2012, The Author. International Journal of Nursing Knowledge © 2012, NANDA International.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7945D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7945D"><span>The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22082108','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22082108"><span>Using a modified technology acceptance model to evaluate healthcare professionals' adoption of a new telemonitoring system.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gagnon, Marie Pierre; Orruño, Estibalitz; Asua, José; Abdeljelil, Anis Ben; Emparanza, José</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>To examine the factors that could influence the decision of healthcare professionals to use a telemonitoring system. A questionnaire, based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), was developed. A panel of experts in technology assessment evaluated the face and content validity of the instrument. Two hundred and thirty-four questionnaires were distributed among nurses and doctors of the cardiology, pulmonology, and internal medicine departments of a tertiary hospital. Cronbach alpha was calculated to measure the internal consistency of the questionnaire items. Construct validity was evaluated using interitem correlation analysis. Logistic regression analysis was performed to test the theoretical model. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. A response rate of 39.7% was achieved. With the exception of one theoretical construct (Habit) that corresponds to behaviors that become automatized, Cronbach alpha values were acceptably high for the remaining constructs. Theoretical variables were well correlated with each other and with the dependent variable. The original TAM was good at predicting telemonitoring usage intention, Perceived Usefulness being the only significant predictor (OR: 5.28, 95% CI: 2.12-13.11). The model was still significant and more powerful when the other theoretical variables were added. However, the only significant predictor in the modified model was Facilitators (OR: 4.96, 95% CI: 1.59-15.55). The TAM is a good predictive model of healthcare professionals' intention to use telemonitoring. However, the perception of facilitators is the most important variable to consider for increasing doctors' and nurses' intention to use the new technology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030111789','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030111789"><span>Specification of the ISS Plasma Environment Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Minow, Joseph I.; Neergaard, Linda F.; Bui, Them H.; Mikatarian, Ronald R.; Barsamian, H.; Koontz, Steven L.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Quantifying the spacecraft charging risks and corresponding hazards for the International Space Station (ISS) requires a plasma environment specification describing the natural variability of ionospheric temperature (Te) and density (Ne). Empirical ionospheric specification and forecast models such as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model typically only provide estimates of long term (seasonal) mean Te and Ne values for the low Earth orbit environment. Knowledge of the Te and Ne variability as well as the likelihood of extreme deviations from the mean values are required to estimate both the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of potentially hazardous spacecraft charging environments for a given ISS construction stage and flight configuration. This paper describes the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric low Earth orbit plasma measurements used to estimate Ne, Te variability in the ISS flight environment. The statistical variability analysis of Ne and Te enables calculation of the expected frequency of Occurrence of any particular values of Ne and Te, especially those that correspond to possibly hazardous spacecraft charging environments. The database used in the original analysis included measurements from the AE-C, AE-D, and DE-2 satellites. Recent work on the database has added additional satellites to the database and ground based incoherent scatter radar observations as well. Deviations of the data values from the IRI estimated Ne, Te parameters for each data point provide a statistical basis for modeling the deviations of the plasma environment from the IRI model output. This technique, while developed specifically for the Space Station analysis, can also be generalized to provide ionospheric plasma environment risk specification models for low Earth orbit over an altitude range of 200 km through approximately 1000 km.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22482368-computational-human-observer-image-quality-evaluation-low-dose-knowledge-based-ct-iterative-reconstruction','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/22482368-computational-human-observer-image-quality-evaluation-low-dose-knowledge-based-ct-iterative-reconstruction"><span>Computational and human observer image quality evaluation of low dose, knowledge-based CT iterative reconstruction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Eck, Brendan L.; Fahmi, Rachid; Miao, Jun</p> <p>2015-10-15</p> <p>Purpose: Aims in this study are to (1) develop a computational model observer which reliably tracks the detectability of human observers in low dose computed tomography (CT) images reconstructed with knowledge-based iterative reconstruction (IMR™, Philips Healthcare) and filtered back projection (FBP) across a range of independent variables, (2) use the model to evaluate detectability trends across reconstructions and make predictions of human observer detectability, and (3) perform human observer studies based on model predictions to demonstrate applications of the model in CT imaging. Methods: Detectability (d′) was evaluated in phantom studies across a range of conditions. Images were generated usingmore » a numerical CT simulator. Trained observers performed 4-alternative forced choice (4-AFC) experiments across dose (1.3, 2.7, 4.0 mGy), pin size (4, 6, 8 mm), contrast (0.3%, 0.5%, 1.0%), and reconstruction (FBP, IMR), at fixed display window. A five-channel Laguerre–Gauss channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) was developed with internal noise added to the decision variable and/or to channel outputs, creating six different internal noise models. Semianalytic internal noise computation was tested against Monte Carlo and used to accelerate internal noise parameter optimization. Model parameters were estimated from all experiments at once using maximum likelihood on the probability correct, P{sub C}. Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to compare models of different orders. The best model was selected according to AIC and used to predict detectability in blended FBP-IMR images, analyze trends in IMR detectability improvements, and predict dose savings with IMR. Predicted dose savings were compared against 4-AFC study results using physical CT phantom images. Results: Detection in IMR was greater than FBP in all tested conditions. The CHO with internal noise proportional to channel output standard deviations, Model-k4, showed the best trade-off between fit and model complexity according to AIC{sub c}. With parameters fixed, the model reasonably predicted detectability of human observers in blended FBP-IMR images. Semianalytic internal noise computation gave results equivalent to Monte Carlo, greatly speeding parameter estimation. Using Model-k4, the authors found an average detectability improvement of 2.7 ± 0.4 times that of FBP. IMR showed greater improvements in detectability with larger signals and relatively consistent improvements across signal contrast and x-ray dose. In the phantom tested, Model-k4 predicted an 82% dose reduction compared to FBP, verified with physical CT scans at 80% reduced dose. Conclusions: IMR improves detectability over FBP and may enable significant dose reductions. A channelized Hotelling observer with internal noise proportional to channel output standard deviation agreed well with human observers across a wide range of variables, even across reconstructions with drastically different image characteristics. Utility of the model observer was demonstrated by predicting the effect of image processing (blending), analyzing detectability improvements with IMR across dose, size, and contrast, and in guiding real CT scan dose reduction experiments. Such a model observer can be applied in optimizing parameters in advanced iterative reconstruction algorithms as well as guiding dose reduction protocols in physical CT experiments.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22402361','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22402361"><span>[Population pharmacokinetics applied to optimising cisplatin doses in cancer patients].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ramón-López, A; Escudero-Ortiz, V; Carbonell, V; Pérez-Ruixo, J J; Valenzuela, B</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>To develop and internally validate a population pharmacokinetics model for cisplatin and assess its prediction capacity for personalising doses in cancer patients. Cisplatin plasma concentrations in forty-six cancer patients were used to determine the pharmacokinetic parameters of a two-compartment pharmacokinetic model implemented in NONMEN VI software. Pharmacokinetic parameter identification capacity was assessed using the parametric bootstrap method and the model was validated using the nonparametric bootstrap method and standardised visual and numerical predictive checks. The final model's prediction capacity was evaluated in terms of accuracy and precision during the first (a priori) and second (a posteriori) chemotherapy cycles. Mean population cisplatin clearance is 1.03 L/h with an interpatient variability of 78.0%. Estimated distribution volume at steady state was 48.3 L, with inter- and intrapatient variabilities of 31,3% and 11,7%, respectively. Internal validation confirmed that the population pharmacokinetics model is appropriate to describe changes over time in cisplatin plasma concentrations, as well as its variability in the study population. The accuracy and precision of a posteriori prediction of cisplatin concentrations improved by 21% and 54% compared to a priori prediction. The population pharmacokinetic model developed adequately described the changes in cisplatin plasma concentrations in cancer patients and can be used to optimise cisplatin dosing regimes accurately and precisely. Copyright © 2011 SEFH. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030112784','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20030112784"><span>Computations of Internal and External Axisymmetric Nozzle Aerodynamics at Transonic Speeds</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Dalbello, Teryn; Georgiadis, Nicholas; Yoder, Dennis; Keith, Theo</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses of axisymmetric circular-arc boattail nozzles have been completed in support of NASA's Next Generation Launch Technology Program to investigate the effects of high-speed nozzle geometries on the nozzle internal flow and the surrounding boattail regions. These computations span the very difficult transonic flight regime, with shock-induced separations and strong adverse pressure gradients. External afterbody and internal nozzle pressure distributions computed with the Wind code are compared with experimental data. A range of turbulence models were examined in Wind, including an Explicit Algebraic Stress model (EASM). Computations on two nozzle geometries have been completed at freestream Mach numbers ranging from 0.6 to 0.9, driven by nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) ranging from 2.9 to 5. Results obtained on converging-only geometry indicate reasonable agreement to experimental data, with the EASM and Shear Stress Transport (SST) turbulence models providing the best agreement. Calculations completed on a converging-diverging geometry involving large-scale internal flow separation did not converge to a true steady-state solution when run with variable timestepping (steady-state). Calculations obtained using constant timestepping (time-accurate) indicate less variations in flow properties compared with steady-state solutions. This failure to converge to a steady-state solution was found to be the result of difficulties in using variable time-stepping with large-scale separations present in the flow. Nevertheless, time-averaged boattail surface pressure coefficient and internal nozzle pressures show fairly good agreement with experimental data. The SST turbulence model demonstrates the best over-all agreement with experimental data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27438478','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27438478"><span>Ordinal probability effect measures for group comparisons in multinomial cumulative link models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Agresti, Alan; Kateri, Maria</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>We consider simple ordinal model-based probability effect measures for comparing distributions of two groups, adjusted for explanatory variables. An "ordinal superiority" measure summarizes the probability that an observation from one distribution falls above an independent observation from the other distribution, adjusted for explanatory variables in a model. The measure applies directly to normal linear models and to a normal latent variable model for ordinal response variables. It equals Φ(β/2) for the corresponding ordinal model that applies a probit link function to cumulative multinomial probabilities, for standard normal cdf Φ and effect β that is the coefficient of the group indicator variable. For the more general latent variable model for ordinal responses that corresponds to a linear model with other possible error distributions and corresponding link functions for cumulative multinomial probabilities, the ordinal superiority measure equals exp(β)/[1+exp(β)] with the log-log link and equals approximately exp(β/2)/[1+exp(β/2)] with the logit link, where β is the group effect. Another ordinal superiority measure generalizes the difference of proportions from binary to ordinal responses. We also present related measures directly for ordinal models for the observed response that need not assume corresponding latent response models. We present confidence intervals for the measures and illustrate with an example. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1245323-grace-era-terrestrial-water-trends-driven-anthropogenic-climate-change','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1245323-grace-era-terrestrial-water-trends-driven-anthropogenic-climate-change"><span>Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1245323-grace-era-terrestrial-water-trends-driven-anthropogenic-climate-change','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1245323-grace-era-terrestrial-water-trends-driven-anthropogenic-climate-change"><span>Are GRACE-era terrestrial water trends driven by anthropogenic climate change?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Fasullo, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.</p> <p></p> <p>To provide context for observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) during GRACE (2003–2014), trends and variability in the CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE) are examined. Motivated in part by the anomalous nature of climate variability during GRACE, the characteristics of both forced change and internal modes are quantified and their influences on observations are estimated. Trends during the GRACE era in the LE are dominated by internal variability rather than by the forced response, with TWS anomalies in much of the Americas, eastern Australia, Africa, and southwestern Eurasia largely attributable to the negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)more » and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). While similarities between observed trends and the model-inferred forced response also exist, it is inappropriate to attribute such trends mainly to anthropogenic forcing. For several key river basins, trends in the mean state and interannual variability and the time at which the forced response exceeds background variability are also estimated while aspects of global mean TWS, including changes in its annual amplitude and decadal trends, are quantified. Lastly, the findings highlight the challenge of detecting anthropogenic climate change in temporally finite satellite datasets and underscore the benefit of utilizing models in the interpretation of the observed record.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8629B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8629B"><span>Nonlinear internal waves in the Gulf of Guinea: observations and modeling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Baquet, Emeric; Pichon, Annick; Raynaud, Stephane; Carton, Xavier</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Nonlinear internal waves are known hazards to offshore operations. They have been observed at different locations around the world and have been studied for a long time in Southeast Asia. However in West Africa, they are less documented. This research presents original data of currentmeters in northeastern part of the Gulf of Guinea, in the vicinity of offshore oil platforms. Nonlinear internal waves were observed. Their characteristics were determined under the assumptions of the weakly nonlinear and non-hydrostatic Korteweg-de Vries equation. Their directions of propagation were studied to determine generation zones. The monthly distribution was shown to assess seasonal variability. Their main generation mechanism was the barotropic tides over the shelf break, but other processes were at work too. The seasonal variability due to the monsoon, river discharges also played a part in the nonlinear internal wave dynamics. Since several processes, of different time and space scales, are at work, interactions between them must be investigated. Thus, a two-layered numerical model was used to reproduce nonlinear internal waves. Sensitivity experiments were made, in order to investigate the balance between nonlinearities, Coriolis and non-hydrostatic dispersions. The impact of non-uniform bathymetry and the presence of another flow in addition to the tides were also tested.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28589457','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28589457"><span>Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in using RF to develop predictive models with large environmental data sets.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA528792','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA528792"><span>Tribology and Friction of Soft Materials: Mississippi State Case Study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-03-18</p> <p>elastomers , foams, and fabrics. B. Develop internal state variable (ISV) material model. Model will be calibrated using database and verified...Rubbers Natural rubber Santoprene (Vulcanized Elastomer ) Styrene Butadiene Rubber (SBR) Foams Polypropylene Foam Polyurethane Foam Fabrics Kevlar...Axially symmetric model PC Disk PC Numerical Implementation in FEM Codes Experiment SEM Optical methods ISV Model Void Nucleation FEM Analysis</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001PhDT.......181S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001PhDT.......181S"><span>Examining school effectiveness at the fourth grade: A hierarchical analysis of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stemler, Steven Edward</p> <p></p> <p>This study explored school effectiveness in mathematics and science at the fourth grade using data from IEA's Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Fourteen of the 26 countries participating in TIMSS at the fourth grade possessed sufficient between-school variability in mathematics achievement to justify the creation of explanatory models of school effectiveness while 13 countries possessed sufficient between-school variability in science achievement. Exploratory models were developed using variables drawn from student, teacher, and school questionnaires. The variables were chosen to represent the domains of student involvement, instructional methods, classroom organization, school climate, and school structure. Six explanatory models for each subject were analyzed using two-level hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) and were compared to models using only school mean SES as an explanatory variable. The amount of variability in student achievement in mathematics attributable to differences between schools ranged from 16% in Cyprus to 56% in Latvia, while the amount of between-school variance in science achievement ranged from 12% in Korea to 59% in Latvia. In general, about one-quarter of the variability in mathematics and science achievement was found to lie between schools. The research findings revealed that after adjusting for differences in student backgrounds across schools, the most effective schools in mathematics and science had students who reported seeing a positive relationship between hard work, belief in their own abilities, and achievement. In addition, more effective schools had students who reported less frequent use of computers and calculators in the classroom. These relationships were found to be stable across explanatory models, cultural contexts, and subject areas. This study has contributed a unique element to the literature by examining school effectiveness at the fourth grade across two subject areas and across 14 different countries. The results indicate that further exploration of the relationship between school effectiveness and student locus of control warrants serious consideration. Future research on school effectiveness is recommended, perhaps using trend data and looking at different grade levels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1014385','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/AD1014385"><span>Lateral Mixing DRI Analysis: Submesoscale, Fine- and Microstructure Surveys of Internal Waves, Turbulence and Water-Mass Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2015-09-30</p> <p>represent water-mass ( spice ) anomalies on isopycnals so serve as passive tracers. These spectra were compared with existing theories and models. 2 2...isopycnal variability of spice in the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. doi: 10.1002/2013JC009421. Ledwell, J.R., A.J. Watson and C.S. Law, 1998</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19960009451&hterms=fashion+models&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dfashion%2Bmodels','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19960009451&hterms=fashion+models&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dfashion%2Bmodels"><span>A kinematically driven anisotropic viscoelastic constitutive model applied to tires</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>Aircraft tires are composite structures manufactured with viscoelastic materials such as carbon black filled rubber and nylon cords. When loaded they experience large deflections and moderately large strains. Detailed structural models of tires require the use of either nonlinear shell or nonlinear three dimensional solid finite elements. Computational predictions of the dynamic response of tires must consider the composite viscoelastic material behavior in a realistic fashion. We describe a modification to a nonlinear anisotropic shell finite element so it can be used to model viscoelastic stresses during general deformations. The model is developed by introducing internal variables of the type used to model elastic strain energy. The internal variables are strains, curvatures, and transverse shear angles which are in a one-to-one correspondence with the generalized coordinates used to model the elastic strain energy for nonlinear response. A difference-relaxation equation is used to relate changes in the observable strain field to changes in the internal strain field. The internal stress state is introduced into the equilibrium equations by converting it to nodal loads associated with the element's displacement degrees of freedom. In this form the tangent matrix in the Newton-Raphson solution algorithm is not modified from its form for the nonlinear statics problem. Only the gradient vector is modified and the modification is not computationally costly. The existing finite element model for the Space Shuttle nose gear tire is used to provide examples of the algorithm. In the first example, the tire's rim is displaced at a constant rate up to a fixed value. In the second example, the tire's rim is enforced to follow a saw tooth load and unload curve to generate hysteresis loops.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995STIN...9616617J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995STIN...9616617J"><span>A kinematically driven anisotropic viscoelastic constitutive model applied to tires</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Johnson, Arthur R.; Tanner, John A.; Mason, Angela J.</p> <p>1995-08-01</p> <p>Aircraft tires are composite structures manufactured with viscoelastic materials such as carbon black filled rubber and nylon cords. When loaded they experience large deflections and moderately large strains. Detailed structural models of tires require the use of either nonlinear shell or nonlinear three dimensional solid finite elements. Computational predictions of the dynamic response of tires must consider the composite viscoelastic material behavior in a realistic fashion. We describe a modification to a nonlinear anisotropic shell finite element so it can be used to model viscoelastic stresses during general deformations. The model is developed by introducing internal variables of the type used to model elastic strain energy. The internal variables are strains, curvatures, and transverse shear angles which are in a one-to-one correspondence with the generalized coordinates used to model the elastic strain energy for nonlinear response. A difference-relaxation equation is used to relate changes in the observable strain field to changes in the internal strain field. The internal stress state is introduced into the equilibrium equations by converting it to nodal loads associated with the element's displacement degrees of freedom. In this form the tangent matrix in the Newton-Raphson solution algorithm is not modified from its form for the nonlinear statics problem. Only the gradient vector is modified and the modification is not computationally costly. The existing finite element model for the Space Shuttle nose gear tire is used to provide examples of the algorithm. In the first example, the tire's rim is displaced at a constant rate up to a fixed value. In the second example, the tire's rim is enforced to follow a saw tooth load and unload curve to generate hysteresis loops.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1187G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1187G"><span>Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grainger, Simon; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Zheng, Xiaogu</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>An analysis is made of the coherent patterns, or modes, of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height field under current and projected climate change scenarios. Using three separate multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the interannual variability of the seasonal mean is separated into components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. In the CMIP5 RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 experiments, there is very little change in the twenty-first century in the intraseasonal component modes, related to the Southern annular mode (SAM) and mid-latitude wave processes. The leading three slowly-varying internal component modes are related to SAM, the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), and the South Pacific wave (SPW). Structural changes in the slow-internal SAM and ENSO modes do not exceed a qualitative estimate of the spatial sampling error, but there is a consistent increase in the ENSO-related variance. Changes in the SPW mode exceed the sampling error threshold, but cannot be further attributed. Changes in the dominant slowly-varying external mode are related to projected changes in radiative forcing. They reflect thermal expansion of the tropical troposphere and associated changes in the Hadley Cell circulation. Changes in the externally-forced associated variance in the RCP8.5 experiment are an order of magnitude greater than for the internal components, indicating that the SH seasonal mean circulation will be even more dominated by a SAM-like annular structure. Across the three MMEs, there is convergence in the projected response in the slow-external component.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1255375-projection-changes-landfilling-atmospheric-river-frequency-extreme-precipitation-over-western-north-america-from-large-ensemble-cesm-simulations','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1255375-projection-changes-landfilling-atmospheric-river-frequency-extreme-precipitation-over-western-north-america-from-large-ensemble-cesm-simulations"><span>A Projection of Changes in Landfilling Atmospheric River Frequency and Extreme Precipitation over Western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM Simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho</p> <p></p> <p>Simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project are analyzed to investigate the impact of global warming on atmospheric rivers (ARs). The model has notable biases in simulating the subtropical jet position and the relationship between extreme precipitation and moisture transport. After accounting for these biases, the model projects an ensemble mean increase of 35% in the number of landfalling AR days between the last twenty years of the 20th and 21st centuries. However, the number of AR associated extreme precipitation days increases only by 28% because the moisture transport required to produce extreme precipitation also increases withmore » warming. Internal variability introduces an uncertainty of ±8% and ±7% in the projected changes in AR days and associated extreme precipitation days. In contrast, accountings for model biases only change the projected changes by about 1%. The significantly larger mean changes compared to internal variability and to the effects of model biases highlight the robustness of AR responses to global warming.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ZaMP...58.1085O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ZaMP...58.1085O"><span>Towards thermomechanics of fractal media</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ostoja-Starzewski, Martin</p> <p>2007-11-01</p> <p>Hans Ziegler’s thermomechanics [1,2,3], established half a century ago, is extended to fractal media on the basis of a recently introduced continuum mechanics due to Tarasov [14,15]. Employing the concept of internal (kinematic) variables and internal stresses, as well as the quasiconservative and dissipative stresses, a field form of the second law of thermodynamics is derived. In contradistinction to the conventional Clausius Duhem inequality, it involves generalized rates of strain and internal variables. Upon introducing a dissipation function and postulating the thermodynamic orthogonality on any lengthscale, constitutive laws of elastic-dissipative fractal media naturally involving generalized derivatives of strain and stress can then be derived. This is illustrated on a model viscoelastic material. Also generalized to fractal bodies is the Hill condition necessary for homogenization of their constitutive responses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110020752','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110020752"><span>Non-Stationary Internal Tides Observed with Satellite Altimetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Temporal variability of the internal tide is inferred from a 17-year combined record of Topex/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeters. A global sampling of along-track sea-surface height wavenumber spectra finds that non-stationary variance is generally 25% or less of the average variance at wavenumbers characteristic of mode-l tidal internal waves. With some exceptions the non-stationary variance does not exceed 0.25 sq cm. The mode-2 signal, where detectable, contains a larger fraction of non-stationary variance, typically 50% or more. Temporal subsetting of the data reveals interannual variability barely significant compared with tidal estimation error from 3-year records. Comparison of summer vs. winter conditions shows only one region of noteworthy seasonal changes, the northern South China Sea. Implications for the anticipated SWOT altimeter mission are briefly discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17202230','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17202230"><span>Calibration of visually guided reaching is driven by error-corrective learning and internal dynamics.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cheng, Sen; Sabes, Philip N</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>The sensorimotor calibration of visually guided reaching changes on a trial-to-trial basis in response to random shifts in the visual feedback of the hand. We show that a simple linear dynamical system is sufficient to model the dynamics of this adaptive process. In this model, an internal variable represents the current state of sensorimotor calibration. Changes in this state are driven by error feedback signals, which consist of the visually perceived reach error, the artificial shift in visual feedback, or both. Subjects correct for > or =20% of the error observed on each movement, despite being unaware of the visual shift. The state of adaptation is also driven by internal dynamics, consisting of a decay back to a baseline state and a "state noise" process. State noise includes any source of variability that directly affects the state of adaptation, such as variability in sensory feedback processing, the computations that drive learning, or the maintenance of the state. This noise is accumulated in the state across trials, creating temporal correlations in the sequence of reach errors. These correlations allow us to distinguish state noise from sensorimotor performance noise, which arises independently on each trial from random fluctuations in the sensorimotor pathway. We show that these two noise sources contribute comparably to the overall magnitude of movement variability. Finally, the dynamics of adaptation measured with random feedback shifts generalizes to the case of constant feedback shifts, allowing for a direct comparison of our results with more traditional blocked-exposure experiments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914547S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914547S"><span>The role of internal variability for decadal carbon uptake anomalies in the Southern Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Spring, Aaron; Hi, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and hence it plays an essential role in modulating global carbon cycle and climate change. Previous studies based on observations (e.g., Landschützer et al. 2015) show pronounced decadal variations of carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean in recent decades and this variability is largely driven by internal climate variability. However, due to limited ensemble size of simulations, the variability of this important ocean sink is still poorly assessed by the state-of-the-art earth system models (ESMs). To assess the internal variability of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean, we use a large ensemble of 100 member simulations based on the Max Planck Institute-ESM (MPI-ESM). The large ensemble of simulations is generated via perturbed initial conditions in the ocean and atmosphere. Each ensemble member includes a historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 with an extension until 2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 future projections. Here we use model simulations from 1980-2015 to compare with available observation-based dataset. We found several ensemble members showing decadal decreasing trends in the carbon sink, which are similar to the trend shown in observations. This result suggests that MPI-ESM large ensemble simulations are able to reproduce decadal variation of carbon sink in the Southern Ocean. Moreover, the decreasing trends of Southern Ocean carbon sink in MPI-ESM are mainly contributed by region between 50-60°S. To understand the internal variability of the air-sea carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean, we further investigate the variability of underlying processes, such as physical climate variability and ocean biological processes. Our results indicate two main drivers for the decadal decreasing trend of carbon sink: i) Intensified winds enhance upwelling of old carbon-rich waters, this leads to increase of the ocean surface pCO2; ii) Primary production is reduced in area from 50-60°S, probably induced by reduced euphotic water column stability; therefore the biological drawdown of ocean surface pCO2 is weakened accordingly and hence the ocean is in favor of carbon outgassing. Landschützer, et al. (2015): The reinvigoration of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, Science, 349, 1221-1224.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29242499','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29242499"><span>High internal noise and poor external noise filtering characterize perception in autism spectrum disorder.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Park, Woon Ju; Schauder, Kimberly B; Zhang, Ruyuan; Bennetto, Loisa; Tadin, Duje</p> <p>2017-12-14</p> <p>An emerging hypothesis postulates that internal noise is a key factor influencing perceptual abilities in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Given fundamental and inescapable effects of noise on nearly all aspects of neural processing, this could be a critical abnormality with broad implications for perception, behavior, and cognition. However, this proposal has been challenged by both theoretical and empirical studies. A crucial question is whether and how internal noise limits perception in ASD, independently from other sources of perceptual inefficiency, such as the ability to filter out external noise. Here, we separately estimated internal noise and external noise filtering in ASD. In children and adolescents with and without ASD, we computationally modeled individuals' visual orientation discrimination in the presence of varying levels of external noise. The results revealed increased internal noise and worse external noise filtering in individuals with ASD. For both factors, we also observed high inter-individual variability in ASD, with only the internal noise estimates significantly correlating with severity of ASD symptoms. We provide evidence for reduced perceptual efficiency in ASD that is due to both increased internal noise and worse external noise filtering, while highlighting internal noise as a possible contributing factor to variability in ASD symptoms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2286S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2286S"><span>Internally Generated and Externally Forced Multidecadal Oceanic Modes and their Influence on the Summer Rainfall over East Asia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Si, D.; Hu, A.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The interdecadal oceanic variabilities can be generated from both internal and external processes, and these variabilities can significantly modulate our climate on global and regional scale, such as the warming slowdown in the early 21st century, and the rainfall in East Asia. By analyzing simulations from a unique Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (CESM_LE) project, we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is primarily an internally generated oceanic variability, while the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may be an oceanic variability generated by internal oceanic processes and modulated by external forcings in the 20th century. Although the observed relationship between IPO and the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YHRV) summer rainfall in China is well simulated in both the preindustrial control and 20th century ensemble, none of the 20th century ensemble members can reproduce the observed time evolution of both IPO and YHRV due to the unpredictable nature of IPO on multidecade timescale. On the other hand, although CESM_LE cannot reproduce the observed relationship between AMO and Huanghe River valley (HRV) summer rainfall of China in the preindustrial control simulation, this relationship in the 20th century simulations is well reproduced, and the chance to reproduce the observed time evolution of both AMO and HRV rainfall is about 30%, indicating the important role of the interaction between the internal processes and the external forcing to realistically simulate the AMO and HRV rainfall.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=econometrics+AND+test&pg=4&id=EJ062400','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=econometrics+AND+test&pg=4&id=EJ062400"><span>A Note on Verification of Computer Simulation Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Aigner, Dennis J.</p> <p>1972-01-01</p> <p>Establishes an argument that questions the validity of one test'' of goodness-of-fit (the extent to which a series of obtained measures agrees with a series of theoretical measures) for the simulated time path of a simple endogenous (internally developed) variable in a simultaneous, perhaps dynamic econometric model. (Author)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5774393','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5774393"><span>A psychometric assessment of Disturbances in Self-Organization symptom indicators for ICD-11 Complex PTSD using the International Trauma Questionnaire</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Shevlin, Mark; Hyland, Philip; Roberts, Neil P.; Bisson, Jonathan I.; Brewin, Chris R; Cloitre, Marylene</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>ABSTRACT Background: Two ‘sibling disorders’ have been proposed for the 11th version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11): Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Complex PTSD (CPTSD). To date, no research has attempted to identify the optimal symptom indicators for the ‘Disturbances in Self-Organization’ (DSO) symptom cluster. Objective: The aim of the current study was to assess the psychometric performance of scores of 16 potential DSO symptom indicators from the International Trauma Questionnaire (ITQ). Criteria relating to score variability and their ability to discriminate were employed. Method: Participants (N = 1839) were a nationally representative household sample of non-institutionalized adults currently residing in the US. Item scores from the ITQ were examined in relation to basic criteria associated with interpretability, variability, homogeneity, and association with functional impairment. The performance of the DSO symptoms was also assessed using 1- and 2-parameter item response theory (IRT) models. Results: The distribution of responses for all DSO indicators met the criteria associated with interpretability, variability, homogeneity, and association with functional impairment. The 1-parameter graded response model was considered the best model and indicated that each set of indictors performed very similarly. Conclusions: The ITQ contains 16 DSO symptom indicators and they perform well in measuring their respective symptom cluster. There was no evidence that particular indicators were ‘better’ than others, and it was concluded that the indicators are essentially interchangeable. PMID:29372014</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29372014','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29372014"><span>A psychometric assessment of Disturbances in Self-Organization symptom indicators for ICD-11 Complex PTSD using the International Trauma Questionnaire.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shevlin, Mark; Hyland, Philip; Roberts, Neil P; Bisson, Jonathan I; Brewin, Chris R; Cloitre, Marylene</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Background : Two 'sibling disorders' have been proposed for the 11 th version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11): Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and Complex PTSD (CPTSD). To date, no research has attempted to identify the optimal symptom indicators for the 'Disturbances in Self-Organization' (DSO) symptom cluster. Objective : The aim of the current study was to assess the psychometric performance of scores of 16 potential DSO symptom indicators from the International Trauma Questionnaire (ITQ). Criteria relating to score variability and their ability to discriminate were employed. Method : Participants ( N = 1839) were a nationally representative household sample of non-institutionalized adults currently residing in the US. Item scores from the ITQ were examined in relation to basic criteria associated with interpretability, variability, homogeneity, and association with functional impairment. The performance of the DSO symptoms was also assessed using 1- and 2-parameter item response theory (IRT) models. Results : The distribution of responses for all DSO indicators met the criteria associated with interpretability, variability, homogeneity, and association with functional impairment. The 1-parameter graded response model was considered the best model and indicated that each set of indictors performed very similarly. Conclusions : The ITQ contains 16 DSO symptom indicators and they perform well in measuring their respective symptom cluster. There was no evidence that particular indicators were 'better' than others, and it was concluded that the indicators are essentially interchangeable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16195947','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16195947"><span>Childhood temperament and family environment as predictors of internalizing and externalizing trajectories from ages 5 to 17.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Leve, Leslie D; Kim, Hyoun K; Pears, Katherine C</p> <p>2005-10-01</p> <p>Childhood temperament and family environment have been shown to predict internalizing and externalizing behavior; however, less is known about how temperament and family environment interact to predict changes in problem behavior. We conducted latent growth curve modeling on a sample assessed at ages 5, 7, 10, 14, and 17 (N = 337). Externalizing behavior decreased over time for both sexes, and internalizing behavior increased over time for girls only. Two childhood variables (fear/shyness and maternal depression) predicted boys' and girls' age-17 internalizing behavior, harsh discipline uniquely predicted boys' age-17 internalizing behavior, and maternal depression and lower family income uniquely predicted increases in girls' internalizing behavior. For externalizing behavior, an array of temperament, family environment, and Temperament x Family Environment variables predicted age-17 behavior for both sexes. Sex differences were present in the prediction of externalizing slopes, with maternal depression predicting increases in boys' externalizing behavior only when impulsivity was low, and harsh discipline predicting increases in girls' externalizing behavior only when impulsivity was high or when fear/shyness was low.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1291212-isolating-anthropogenic-component-arctic-warming','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1291212-isolating-anthropogenic-component-arctic-warming"><span>Isolating the anthropogenic component of Arctic warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Chylek, Petr; Hengartner, Nicholas; Lesins, Glen; ...</p> <p>2014-05-28</p> <p>Structural equation modeling is used in statistical applications as both confirmatory and exploratory modeling to test models and to suggest the most plausible explanation for a relationship between the independent and the dependent variables. Although structural analysis cannot prove causation, it can suggest the most plausible set of factors that influence the observed variable. Here, we apply structural model analysis to the annual mean Arctic surface air temperature from 1900 to 2012 to find the most effective set of predictors and to isolate the anthropogenic component of the recent Arctic warming by subtracting the effects of natural forcing and variabilitymore » from the observed temperature. We also find that anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols radiative forcing and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation internal mode dominate Arctic temperature variability. Finally, our structural model analysis of observational data suggests that about half of the recent Arctic warming of 0.64 K/decade may have anthropogenic causes.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980073396','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980073396"><span>Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Xu, L.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900030909&hterms=displacement+internal&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddisplacement%2Binternal','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900030909&hterms=displacement+internal&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Ddisplacement%2Binternal"><span>Internal state variable approach for predicting stiffness reductions in fibrous laminated composites with matrix cracks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lee, Jong-Won; Allen, D. H.; Harris, C. E.</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>A mathematical model utilizing the internal state variable concept is proposed for predicting the upper bound of the reduced axial stiffnesses in cross-ply laminates with matrix cracks. The axial crack opening displacement is explicitly expressed in terms of the observable axial strain and the undamaged material properties. A crack parameter representing the effect of matrix cracks on the observable axial Young's modulus is calculated for glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy material systems. The results show that the matrix crack opening displacement and the effective Young's modulus depend not on the crack length, but on its ratio to the crack spacing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28405160','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28405160"><span>Factors influencing adherence to psychopharmacological medications in psychiatric patients: a structural equation modeling approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>De Las Cuevas, Carlos; de Leon, Jose; Peñate, Wenceslao; Betancort, Moisés</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>To evaluate pathways through which sociodemographic, clinical, attitudinal, and perceived health control variables impact psychiatric patients' adherence to psychopharmacological medications. A sample of 966 consecutive psychiatric outpatients was studied. The variables were sociodemographic (age, gender, and education), clinical (diagnoses, drug treatment, and treatment duration), attitudinal (attitudes toward psychopharmacological medication and preferences regarding participation in decision-making), perception of control over health (health locus of control, self-efficacy, and psychological reactance), and level of adherence to psychopharmacological medications. Structural equation modeling was applied to examine the nonstraightforward relationships and the interactive effects among the analyzed variables. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that psychiatric patients' treatment adherence was associated: 1) negatively with cognitive psychological reactance (adherence decreased as cognitive psychological reactance increased), 2) positively with patients' trust in their psychiatrists (doctors' subscale), 3) negatively with patients' belief that they are in control of their mental health and that their mental health depends on their own actions (internal subscale), and 4) positively (although weakly) with age. Self-efficacy indirectly influenced treatment adherence through internal health locus of control. This study provides support for the hypothesis that perceived health control variables play a relevant role in psychiatric patients' adherence to psychopharmacological medications. The findings highlight the importance of considering prospective studies of patients' psychological reactance and health locus of control as they may be clinically relevant factors contributing to adherence to psychopharmacological medications.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A12H..05M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A12H..05M"><span>Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4830479','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4830479"><span>Expanding Stress Generation Theory: Test of a Transdiagnostic Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Conway, Christopher C.; Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia A.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Originally formulated to understand the recurrence of depressive disorders, the stress generation hypothesis has recently been applied in research on anxiety and externalizing disorders. Results from these investigations, in combination with findings of extensive comorbidity between depression and other mental disorders, suggest the need for an expansion of stress generation models to include the stress generating effects of transdiagnostic pathology as well as those of specific syndromes. Employing latent variable modeling techniques to parse the general and specific elements of commonly co-occurring Axis I syndromes, the current study examined the associations of transdiagnostic internalizing and externalizing dimensions with stressful life events over time. Analyses revealed that, after adjusting for the covariation between the dimensions, internalizing was a significant predictor of interpersonal dependent stress, whereas externalizing was a significant predictor of noninterpersonal dependent stress. Neither latent dimension was associated with the occurrence of independent, or fateful, stressful life events. At the syndrome level, once variance due to the internalizing factor was partialled out, unipolar depression contributed incrementally to the generation of interpersonal dependent stress. In contrast, the presence of panic disorder produced a “stress inhibition” effect, predicting reduced exposure to interpersonal dependent stress. Additionally, dysthymia was associated with an excess of noninterpersonal dependent stress. The latent variable modeling framework used here is discussed in terms of its potential as an integrative model for stress generation research. PMID:22428789</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28737192','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28737192"><span>[Socioeconomical level and behavior in school-age children: the mediating role of parents].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ulloa Vidal, Natalia; Cova Solar, Félix; Bustos N, Claudio</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>A determinant of particular relevance in human development is the socioeconomic status (SES) and, specifically, low SES and poverty. Likewise, family environment is essential in the development of children and a potential mediator or moderator of the effect of broader social conditions. To analyze the role of parenting stress as a mediating variable of the relationship between SES and both externalized and internalized behaviors in preschool children. Descriptive secondary base study based on the Longitudinal Survey of Chilean First Infancy that selected a stratified sample, representative by clusters, of 9.996 children from 3 to 5 years old and their caregivers, that completed a battery of instruments for measuring SES variables, parenting stress and externalized and internalized behaviors. The analysis used a linear model with least square estimate. As hypothesis testing, the Dm (an adaptation of the F-test for multiple imputation method) was used. The mediation model of parenting stress in the relationship between SES and both externalized and internalized behaviors was confirmed for the latter; regarding externalized behaviors a model of moderation was observed, being the stress influence lower on the low SES. Parental stress showed a clear relationship with the presence of externalized and internalized behaviors, stronger than the SES. The relationship between SES and parenting stress is very important to understand the processes that affect childrens development.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17359242','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17359242"><span>Obligations, internalization, and excuse making: integrating the triangle model and self-determination theory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sheldon, Kennon M; Schachtman, Todd R</p> <p>2007-04-01</p> <p>Schlenker's triangle model (Schlenker, Britt, Pennington, Murphy, & Doherty, 1994, Schlenker, Pontari, & Christopher, 2001) identifies three excuses people use to avoid taking responsibility after failure: that one had no control in the situation, that the obligation was unclear, and that it was not really one's obligation. Three retrospective studies tested the presumed negative association between excuse making and responsibility taking. The studies also examined the effects of self-determination theory's concept of motivational internalization (Deci & Ryan, 2000) upon these variables. A complex but replicable pattern emerged, such that responsibility taking and motivational internalization correlated with adaptive outcomes such as future commitment and positive expectancy and excuse making did not. Of particular interest, perceiving that the person levying the obligation internalized motivation predicted responsibility taking, in all three studies. Implications for the triangle model, as well as for theories of maturity and personality development, are considered.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=187287','PESTICIDES'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=187287"><span>Characterizing Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models ...</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/search.htm">EPA Pesticide Factsheets</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Mode-of-action based risk and safety assessments can rely upon tissue dosimetry estimates in animals and humans obtained from physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling. However, risk assessment also increasingly requires characterization of uncertainty and variability; such characterization for PBPK model predictions represents a continuing challenge to both modelers and users. Current practices show significant progress in specifying deterministic biological models and the non-deterministic (often statistical) models, estimating their parameters using diverse data sets from multiple sources, and using them to make predictions and characterize uncertainty and variability. The International Workshop on Uncertainty and Variability in PBPK Models, held Oct 31-Nov 2, 2006, sought to identify the state-of-the-science in this area and recommend priorities for research and changes in practice and implementation. For the short term, these include: (1) multidisciplinary teams to integrate deterministic and non-deterministic/statistical models; (2) broader use of sensitivity analyses, including for structural and global (rather than local) parameter changes; and (3) enhanced transparency and reproducibility through more complete documentation of the model structure(s) and parameter values, the results of sensitivity and other analyses, and supporting, discrepant, or excluded data. Longer-term needs include: (1) theoretic and practical methodological impro</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1411037-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1411037-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america"><span>Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao</p> <p></p> <p>This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 km and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemblemore » during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late 21st century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late 21st century.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1429906-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1429906-internal-variability-dynamically-downscaled-climate-over-north-america"><span>Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao</p> <p></p> <p>This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble duringmore » the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4539W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4539W"><span>Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..673W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..673W"><span>Internal variability of a dynamically downscaled climate over North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Jiali; Bessac, Julie; Kotamarthi, Rao; Constantinescu, Emil; Drewniak, Beth</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>This study investigates the internal variability (IV) of a regional climate model, and considers the impacts of horizontal resolution and spectral nudging on the IV. A 16-member simulation ensemble was conducted using the Weather Research Forecasting model for three model configurations. Ensemble members included simulations at spatial resolutions of 50 and 12 km without spectral nudging and simulations at a spatial resolution of 12 km with spectral nudging. All the simulations were generated over the same domain, which covered much of North America. The degree of IV was measured as the spread between the individual members of the ensemble during the integration period. The IV of the 12 km simulation with spectral nudging was also compared with a future climate change simulation projected by the same model configuration. The variables investigated focus on precipitation and near-surface air temperature. While the IVs show a clear annual cycle with larger values in summer and smaller values in winter, the seasonal IV is smaller for a 50-km spatial resolution than for a 12-km resolution when nudging is not applied. Applying a nudging technique to the 12-km simulation reduces the IV by a factor of two, and produces smaller IV than the simulation at 50 km without nudging. Applying a nudging technique also changes the geographic distributions of IV in all examined variables. The IV is much smaller than the inter-annual variability at seasonal scales for regionally averaged temperature and precipitation. The IV is also smaller than the projected changes in air-temperature for the mid- and late twenty-first century. However, the IV is larger than the projected changes in precipitation for the mid- and late twenty-first century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750023140','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750023140"><span>Mission Analysis Program for Solar Electric Propulsion (MAPSEP). Volume 3: Program manual</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Huling, K. R.; Boain, R. J.; Wilson, T.; Hong, P. E.; Shults, G. L.</p> <p>1974-01-01</p> <p>The internal structure of MAPSEP is described. Topics discussed include: macrologic, variable definition, subroutines, and logical flow. Information is given to facilitate modifications to the models and algorithms of MAPSEP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..286K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..286K"><span>Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27391791','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27391791"><span>Mediators of the relationship between thin-ideal internalization and body dissatisfaction in the natural environment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fitzsimmons-Craft, Ellen E; Bardone-Cone, Anna M; Crosby, Ross D; Engel, Scott G; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Bulik, Cynthia M</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Social comparisons (i.e., body, eating, exercise) and body surveillance were tested as mediators of the thin-ideal internalization-body dissatisfaction relationship using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Participants were 232 college women who completed a 2-week EMA protocol, responding to questions three times per day. Multilevel path analysis was used to examine a 2-1-1 mediation model (thin-ideal internalization assessed as trait; between-person effects examined) and a 1-1-1 model (component of thin-ideal internalization [thin-ideal importance] assessed momentarily; within- and between-person effects examined). For the 2-1-1 model, only body comparison and body surveillance were significant specific mediators of the between-person effect. For the 1-1-1 model, all four variables were significant specific mediators of the within-person effect. Only body comparison was a significant specific mediator of the between-person effect. At the state level, many processes explain the thin-ideal internalization-body dissatisfaction relationship. However, at the trait level, body comparison and body surveillance are more important explanatory factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5012939','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5012939"><span>Mediators of the Relationship Between Thin-Ideal Internalization and Body Dissatisfaction in the Natural Environment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fitzsimmons-Craft, Ellen E.; Bardone-Cone, Anna M.; Crosby, Ross D.; Engel, Scott G.; Wonderlich, Stephen A.; Bulik, Cynthia M.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Social comparisons (i.e., body, eating, exercise) and body surveillance were tested as mediators of the thin-ideal internalization-body dissatisfaction relationship using ecological momentary assessment (EMA). Participants were 232 college women who completed a 2-week EMA protocol, responding to questions three times per day. Multilevel path analysis was used to examine a 2-1-1 mediation model (thin-ideal internalization assessed as trait; between-person effects examined) and a 1-1-1 model (component of thin-ideal internalization [thin-ideal importance] assessed momentarily; within- and between-person effects examined). For the 2-1-1 model, only body comparison and body surveillance were significant specific mediators of the between-person effect. For the 1-1-1 model, all four variables were significant specific mediators of the within-person effect. Only body comparison was a significant specific mediator of the between-person effect. At the state level, many processes explain the thin-ideal internalization-body dissatisfaction relationship. However, at the trait level, body comparison and body surveillance are more important explanatory factors. PMID:27391791</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...814991L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...814991L"><span>On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18727404','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18727404"><span>[The reentrant binomial model of nuclear anomalies growth in rhabdomyosarcoma RA-23 cell populations under increasing doze of rare ionizing radiation].</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Alekseeva, N P; Alekseev, A O; Vakhtin, Iu B; Kravtsov, V Iu; Kuzovatov, S N; Skorikova, T I</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Distributions of nuclear morphology anomalies in transplantable rabdomiosarcoma RA-23 cell populations were investigated under effect of ionizing radiation from 0 to 45 Gy. Internuclear bridges, nuclear protrusions and dumbbell-shaped nuclei were accepted for morphological anomalies. Empirical distributions of the number of anomalies per 100 nuclei were used. The adequate model of reentrant binomial distribution has been found. The sum of binomial random variables with binomial number of summands has such distribution. Averages of these random variables were named, accordingly, internal and external average reentrant components. Their maximum likelihood estimations were received. Statistical properties of these estimations were investigated by means of statistical modeling. It has been received that at equally significant correlation between the radiation dose and the average of nuclear anomalies in cell populations after two-three cellular cycles from the moment of irradiation in vivo the irradiation doze significantly correlates with internal average reentrant component, and in remote descendants of cell transplants irradiated in vitro - with external one.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=ratio+AND+analysis&pg=5&id=EJ1103565','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=ratio+AND+analysis&pg=5&id=EJ1103565"><span>Study of the Factors Affecting the Mathematics Achievement of Turkish Students According to Data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Güzeller, Cem Oktay; Eser, Mehmet Taha; Aksu, Gökhan</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This study attempts to determine the factors affecting the mathematics achievement of students in Turkey based on data from the Programme for International Student Assessment 2012 and the correct classification ratio of the established model. The study used mathematics achievement as a dependent variable while sex, having a study room, preparation…</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28973260','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28973260"><span>Multivariable and Bayesian Network Analysis of Outcome Predictors in Acute Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Review of a Pure Surgical Series in the Post-International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial Era.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zador, Zsolt; Huang, Wendy; Sperrin, Matthew; Lawton, Michael T</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Following the International Subarachnoid Aneurysm Trial (ISAT), evolving treatment modalities for acute aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) has changed the case mix of patients undergoing urgent surgical clipping. To update our knowledge on outcome predictors by analyzing admission parameters in a pure surgical series using variable importance ranking and machine learning. We reviewed a single surgeon's case series of 226 patients suffering from aSAH treated with urgent surgical clipping. Predictions were made using logistic regression models, and predictive performance was assessed using areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC). We established variable importance ranking using partial Nagelkerke R2 scores. Probabilistic associations between variables were depicted using Bayesian networks, a method of machine learning. Importance ranking showed that World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade and age were the most influential outcome prognosticators. Inclusion of only these 2 predictors was sufficient to maintain model performance compared to when all variables were considered (AUC = 0.8222, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7646-0.88 vs 0.8218, 95% CI: 0.7616-0.8821, respectively, DeLong's P = .992). Bayesian networks showed that age and WFNS grade were associated with several variables such as laboratory results and cardiorespiratory parameters. Our study is the first to report early outcomes and formal predictor importance ranking following aSAH in a post-ISAT surgical case series. Models showed good predictive power with fewer relevant predictors than in similar size series. Bayesian networks proved to be a powerful tool in visualizing the widespread association of the 2 key predictors with admission variables, explaining their importance and demonstrating the potential for hypothesis generation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.932a2036A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JPhCS.932a2036A"><span>Neutron star dynamics under time dependent external torques</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alpar, M. A.; Gügercinoğlu, E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The two component model of neutron star dynamics describing the behaviour of the observed crust coupled to the superfluid interior has so far been applied to radio pulsars for which the external torques are constant on dynamical timescales. We recently solved this problem under arbitrary time dependent external torques. Our solutions pertain to internal torques that are linear in the rotation rates, as well as to the extremely non-linear internal torques of the vortex creep model. Two-component models with linear or nonlinear internal torques can now be applied to magnetars and to neutron stars in binary systems, with strong variability and timing noise. Time dependent external torques can be obtained from the observed spin-down (or spin-up) time series, \\dot Ω ≤ft( t \\right).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA200771','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA200771"><span>Research on Damage Models for Continuous Fiber Composites</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>1988-07-01</p> <p>r ~.F (~ Mechanics and Materials Center TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY College Station, Texas RESEARCH ON DAMAGE MODELS FOR CONTINUOUS FIBER COMPOSITES Final...Washington, DC 20332 11. TITLE (Include Security Clas=fication) Research on Damage Models for Continuous Fiber Composites - Final Technical Report 1...GROUP SUB-GROU ::=, COMPOsites ) continuum mechanics , ~ idamage, internal state variables V experimental mechanics, laminated composites o 19. ABSTRACT</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...837...33B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ApJ...837...33B"><span>Multi-messenger Light Curves from Gamma-Ray Bursts in the Internal Shock Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bustamante, Mauricio; Heinze, Jonas; Murase, Kohta; Winter, Walter</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are promising as sources of neutrinos and cosmic rays. In the internal shock scenario, blobs of plasma emitted from a central engine collide within a relativistic jet and form shocks, leading to particle acceleration and emission. Motivated by present experimental constraints and sensitivities, we improve the predictions of particle emission by investigating time-dependent effects from multiple shocks. We produce synthetic light curves with different variability timescales that stem from properties of the central engine. For individual GRBs, qualitative conclusions about model parameters, neutrino production efficiency, and delays in high-energy gamma-rays can be deduced from inspection of the gamma-ray light curves. GRBs with fast time variability without additional prominent pulse structure tend to be efficient neutrino emitters, whereas GRBs with fast variability modulated by a broad pulse structure can be inefficient neutrino emitters and produce delayed high-energy gamma-ray signals. Our results can be applied to quantitative tests of the GRB origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, and have the potential to impact current and future multi-messenger searches.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4855248','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4855248"><span>Examining the Disability Model From the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health Using a Large Data Set of Community-Dwelling Malaysian Older Adults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Loke, Seng Cheong; Lim, Wee Shiong; Someya, Yoshiko; Hamid, Tengku A.; Nudin, Siti S. H.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Objective: This study examines the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health model (ICF) using a data set of 2,563 community-dwelling elderly with disease-independent measures of mobility, physical activity, and social networking, to represent ICF constructs. Method: The relationship between chronic disease and disability (independent and dependent variables) was examined using logistic regression. To demonstrate variability in activity performance with functional impairment, graphing was used. The relationship between functional impairment, activity performance, and social participation was examined graphically and using ANOVA. The impact of cognitive deficits was quantified through stratifying by dementia. Results: Disability is strongly related to chronic disease (Wald 25.5, p < .001), functional impairment with activity performance (F = 34.2, p < .001), and social participation (F= 43.6, p < .001). With good function, there is considerable variability in activity performance (inter-quartile range [IQR] = 2.00), but diminishes with high impairment (IQR = 0.00) especially with cognitive deficits. Discussion: Environment modification benefits those with moderate functional impairment, but not with higher grades of functional loss. PMID:26472747</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA53A2230P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA53A2230P"><span>Toward a Geoscientific Semantic Web Based on How Geoscientists Talk Across Disciplines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peckham, S. D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Are there terms and scientific concepts from math and science that almost all geoscientists understand? Is there a limited set of terms, patterns and language elements that geoscientists use for efficient, unambiguous communication that could be used to describe the variables that they measure, store in data sets and use as model inputs and outputs? In this talk it will be argued that the answer to both questions is "yes" by drawing attention to many such patterns and then showing how they have been used to create a rich set of naming conventions for variables called the CSDMS Standard Names. Variables, which store numerical quantities associated with specific objects, are the fundamental currency of science. They are the items that are measured and saved in data sets, which may then be read into models. They are the inputs and outputs of models and the items exchanged between coupled models. They also star in the equations that summarize our scientific knowledge. Carefully constructed, unambiguous and unique labels for commonly used variables therefore provide an attractive mechanism for automatic semantic mediation when variables are to be shared between heterogeous resources. They provide a means to automatically check for semantic equivalence so that variables can be safely shared in resource compositions. A good set of standardized variable names can serve as the hub in a hub-and-spoke solution to semantic mediation, where the "internal vocabularies" of geoscience resources (i.e. data sets and models) are mapped to and from the hub to facilitate interoperability and data sharing. When built from patterns and terms that most geoscientists are already familiar with, these standardized variable names are then "readable" by both humans and machines. Despite the importance of variables in scientific work, most of the ontological work in the geosciences is focused at a higher level that supports finding resources (e.g data sets) but not on describing the contents of those resources. The CSDMS Standard Names have matured continuously since they were first introduced over three years ago. Many recent extensions and applications of them (e.g. different science domains, different projects, new rules, ontological work) as well as their compatibility with the International System of Quantities (ISO 80000) will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040171481','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040171481"><span>Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Patel, Bhogila M.; Hoge, Peter A.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3335278','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3335278"><span>Model-based analyses: Promises, pitfalls, and example applications to the study of cognitive control</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mars, Rogier B.; Shea, Nicholas J.; Kolling, Nils; Rushworth, Matthew F. S.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>We discuss a recent approach to investigating cognitive control, which has the potential to deal with some of the challenges inherent in this endeavour. In a model-based approach, the researcher defines a formal, computational model that performs the task at hand and whose performance matches that of a research participant. The internal variables in such a model might then be taken as proxies for latent variables computed in the brain. We discuss the potential advantages of such an approach for the study of the neural underpinnings of cognitive control and its pitfalls, and we make explicit the assumptions underlying the interpretation of data obtained using this approach. PMID:20437297</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1361945-observed-projected-changes-precipitation-annual-cycle','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1361945-observed-projected-changes-precipitation-annual-cycle"><span>Observed and Projected Changes to the Precipitation Annual Cycle</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine; ...</p> <p>2017-06-08</p> <p>Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1361945-observed-projected-changes-precipitation-annual-cycle','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1361945-observed-projected-changes-precipitation-annual-cycle"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Marvel, Kate; Biasutti, Michela; Bonfils, Celine</p> <p></p> <p>Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch betweenmore » observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña–like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. Furthermore these changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25019776','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25019776"><span>Variable-amplitude oscillatory shear response of amorphous materials.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Perchikov, Nathan; Bouchbinder, Eran</p> <p>2014-06-01</p> <p>Variable-amplitude oscillatory shear tests are emerging as powerful tools to investigate and quantify the nonlinear rheology of amorphous solids, complex fluids, and biological materials. Quite a few recent experimental and atomistic simulation studies demonstrated that at low shear amplitudes, an amorphous solid settles into an amplitude- and initial-conditions-dependent dissipative limit cycle, in which back-and-forth localized particle rearrangements periodically bring the system to the same state. At sufficiently large shear amplitudes, the amorphous system loses memory of the initial conditions, exhibits chaotic particle motions accompanied by diffusive behavior, and settles into a stochastic steady state. The two regimes are separated by a transition amplitude, possibly characterized by some critical-like features. Here we argue that these observations support some of the physical assumptions embodied in the nonequilibrium thermodynamic, internal-variables based, shear-transformation-zone model of amorphous viscoplasticity; most notably that "flow defects" in amorphous solids are characterized by internal states between which they can make transitions, and that structural evolution is driven by dissipation associated with plastic deformation. We present a rather extensive theoretical analysis of the thermodynamic shear-transformation-zone model for a variable-amplitude oscillatory shear protocol, highlighting its success in accounting for various experimental and simulational observations, as well as its limitations. Our results offer a continuum-level theoretical framework for interpreting the variable-amplitude oscillatory shear response of amorphous solids and may promote additional developments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981STIN...8227701L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981STIN...8227701L"><span>A numerical method for the solution of internal pipe/channel flows in laminar or turbulent motion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lourenco, L.; Essers, J. A.</p> <p>1981-11-01</p> <p>A computer program which is useful in the solution of problems of internal turbulent or laminar flow without recirculation is described. The flow is treated in terms of parabolic boundary layer differential equations. The eddy diffusivity concept is used to model turbulent stresses. Two turbulent models are available: the Prandtl mixing length model and the Nee-Kovasznay model for the effective viscosity. Fluid is considered incompressible, but little program modification is needed to treat compressible flows. Initial conditions are prescribed as well as the boundary conditions. The differencing scheme employed is fully implicit for the dependent variables. This allows the use of relatively large forward steps without stability problems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17162642','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17162642"><span>A conceptual model of factors contributing to the development of muscle dysmorphia.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Grieve, Frederick G</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Muscle dysmorphia is a recently described subcategory of Body Dysmorphic Disorder. It is most prevalent in males and has a number of cognitive, behavioral, socioenviornmental, emotional, and psychological factors that influence its expression. An etiological model describing these influences is presented for evaluation. Nine variables (body mass, media influences, ideal body internalization, low self-esteem, body dissatisfaction, health locus of control, negative affect, perfectionism, and body distortion) were identified through the use of extant literature on muscle dysmorphia and through extrapolation from literature involving women and eating disorders. The functional relationships among these variables are described and implications of the model are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H33H1411G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.H33H1411G"><span>Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.9113J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..43.9113J"><span>How predictable is the timing of a summer ice-free Arctic?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jahn, Alexandra; Kay, Jennifer E.; Holland, Marika M.; Hall, David M.</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice-free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375942','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375942"><span>Nonlinear model predictive control for chemical looping process</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Joshi, Abhinaya; Lei, Hao; Lou, Xinsheng</p> <p></p> <p>A control system for optimizing a chemical looping ("CL") plant includes a reduced order mathematical model ("ROM") that is designed by eliminating mathematical terms that have minimal effect on the outcome. A non-linear optimizer provides various inputs to the ROM and monitors the outputs to determine the optimum inputs that are then provided to the CL plant. An estimator estimates the values of various internal state variables of the CL plant. The system has one structure adapted to control a CL plant that only provides pressure measurements in the CL loops A and B, a second structure adapted to amore » CL plant that provides pressure measurements and solid levels in both loops A, and B, and a third structure adapted to control a CL plant that provides full information on internal state variables. A final structure provides a neural network NMPC controller to control operation of loops A and B.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26650805','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26650805"><span>"American" or "Multiethnic"? Family Ethnic Identity Among Transracial Adoptive Families, Ethnic-Racial Socialization, and Children's Self-Perception.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pinderhughes, Ellen E; Zhang, Xian; Agerbak, Susanne</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Drawing on a model of ethnic-racial socialization (E-RS; Pinderhughes, 2013), this study examined hypothesized relations among parents' role variables (family ethnic identity and acknowledgment of cultural and racial differences), cultural socialization (CS) behaviors, and children's self-perceptions (ethnic self-label and feelings about self-label). The sample comprised 44 U.S.-based parents and their daughters ages 6 to 9 who were adopted from China. Correlation analyses revealed that parents' role variables and CS behaviors were related, and children's ethnic self-label was related to family ethnic identity and CS behaviors. Qualitative analyses point to complexities in children's ethnic identity and between family and children's ethnic identities. Together, these findings provide support for the theoretical model and suggest that although ethnic identity among international transracial adoptees (ITRAs) has similarities to that of nonadopted ethnic minority children, their internal experiences are more complex. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880027851&hterms=conservatism&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dconservatism','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880027851&hterms=conservatism&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dconservatism"><span>Variable structure control of nonlinear systems through simplified uncertain models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Sira-Ramirez, Hebertt</p> <p>1986-01-01</p> <p>A variable structure control approach is presented for the robust stabilization of feedback equivalent nonlinear systems whose proposed model lies in the same structural orbit of a linear system in Brunovsky's canonical form. An attempt to linearize exactly the nonlinear plant on the basis of the feedback control law derived for the available model results in a nonlinearly perturbed canonical system for the expanded class of possible equivalent control functions. Conservatism tends to grow as modeling errors become larger. In order to preserve the internal controllability structure of the plant, it is proposed that model simplification be carried out on the open-loop-transformed system. As an example, a controller is developed for a single link manipulator with an elastic joint.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=335063','PESTICIDES'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?direntryid=335063"><span>The impact of variation in scaling factors on the estimation of ...</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/search.htm">EPA Pesticide Factsheets</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Many physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models include values for metabolic rate parameters extrapolated from in vitro metabolism studies using scaling factors such as mg of microsomal protein per gram of liver (MPPGL) and liver mass (FVL). Variation in scaling factor values impacts metabolic rate parameter estimates (Vmax) and hence estimates of internal dose used in dose response analysis. The impacts of adult human variation in MPPGL and FVL on estimates of internal dose were assessed using a human PBPK model for BDCM for several internal dose metrics for two exposure scenarios (single 0.25 liter drink of water or 10 minute shower) under plausible (5 micrograms/L) and high level (20 micrograms/L) water concentrations. For both concentrations, all internal dose metrics were changed less than 5% for the showering scenario (combined inhalation and dermal exposure). In contrast, a 27-fold variation in area under the curve for BDCM in venous blood was observed at both oral exposure concentrations, whereas total amount of BDCM metabolized in liver was relatively unchanged. This analysis demonstrates that variability in the scaling factors used for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) for metabolic rate parameters can have a significant route-dependent impact on estimates of internal dose under environmentally relevant exposure scenarios. This indicates the need to evaluate both uncertainty and variability for scaling factors used for IVIVE. Sca</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940011445','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940011445"><span>Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Vane, Deborah</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29162185','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29162185"><span>External-environmental and internal-health early life predictors of adolescent development.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hartman, Sarah; Li, Zhi; Nettle, Daniel; Belsky, Jay</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>A wealth of evidence documents associations between various aspects of the rearing environment and later development. Two evolutionary-inspired models advance explanations for why and how such early experiences shape later functioning: (a) the external-prediction model, which highlights the role of the early environment (e.g., parenting) in regulating children's development, and (b) the internal-prediction model, which emphasizes internal state (i.e., health) as the critical regulator. Thus, by using data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development, the current project draws from both models by investigating whether the effect of the early environment on later adolescent functioning is subject to an indirect effect by internal-health variables. Results showed a significant indirect effect of internal health on the relation between the early environment and adolescent behavior. Specifically, early environmental adversity during the first 5 years of life predicted lower quality health during childhood, which then led to problematic adolescent functioning and earlier age of menarche for girls. In addition, for girls, early adversity predicted lower quality health that forecasted earlier age of menarche leading to increased adolescent risk taking. The discussion highlights the importance of integrating both internal and external models to further understand the developmental processes that effect adolescent behavior.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPA....7l5328L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPA....7l5328L"><span>Analytical model of cracking due to rebar corrosion expansion in concrete considering the structure internal force</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lin, Xiangyue; Peng, Minli; Lei, Fengming; Tan, Jiangxian; Shi, Huacheng</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Based on the assumptions of uniform corrosion and linear elastic expansion, an analytical model of cracking due to rebar corrosion expansion in concrete was established, which is able to consider the structure internal force. And then, by means of the complex variable function theory and series expansion technology established by Muskhelishvili, the corresponding stress component functions of concrete around the reinforcement were obtained. Also, a comparative analysis was conducted between the numerical simulation model and present model in this paper. The results show that the calculation results of both methods were consistent with each other, and the numerical deviation was less than 10%, proving that the analytical model established in this paper is reliable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CompM.tmp..249J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CompM.tmp..249J"><span>Modelling multiple cycles of static and dynamic recrystallisation using a fully implicit isotropic material model based on dislocation density</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jansen van Rensburg, Gerhardus J.; Kok, Schalk; Wilke, Daniel N.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>This paper presents the development and numerical implementation of a state variable based thermomechanical material model, intended for use within a fully implicit finite element formulation. Plastic hardening, thermal recovery and multiple cycles of recrystallisation can be tracked for single peak as well as multiple peak recrystallisation response. The numerical implementation of the state variable model extends on a J2 isotropic hypo-elastoplastic modelling framework. The complete numerical implementation is presented as an Abaqus UMAT and linked subroutines. Implementation is discussed with detailed explanation of the derivation and use of various sensitivities, internal state variable management and multiple recrystallisation cycle contributions. A flow chart explaining the proposed numerical implementation is provided as well as verification on the convergence of the material subroutine. The material model is characterised using two high temperature data sets for cobalt and copper. The results of finite element analyses using the material parameter values characterised on the copper data set are also presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5530732','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5530732"><span>A diagnostic model for chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Johannson, Kerri A; Elicker, Brett M; Vittinghoff, Eric; Assayag, Deborah; de Boer, Kaïssa; Golden, Jeffrey A; Jones, Kirk D; King, Talmadge E; Koth, Laura L; Lee, Joyce S; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; Collard, Harold R</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The objective of this study was to develop a diagnostic model that allows for a highly specific diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis using clinical and radiological variables alone. Chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and other interstitial lung disease cases were retrospectively identified from a longitudinal database. High-resolution CT scans were blindly scored for radiographic features (eg, ground-glass opacity, mosaic perfusion) as well as the radiologist’s diagnostic impression. Candidate models were developed then evaluated using clinical and radiographic variables and assessed by the cross-validated C-statistic. Forty-four chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and eighty other interstitial lung disease cases were identified. Two models were selected based on their statistical performance, clinical applicability and face validity. Key model variables included age, down feather and/or bird exposure, radiographic presence of ground-glass opacity and mosaic perfusion and moderate or high confidence in the radiographic impression of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Models were internally validated with good performance, and cut-off values were established that resulted in high specificity for a diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. PMID:27245779</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.2519S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.2519S"><span>Frequency content of sea surface height variability from internal gravity waves to mesoscale eddies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Savage, Anna C.; Arbic, Brian K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Alford, Matthew H.; Buijsman, Maarten C.; Thomas Farrar, J.; Sharma, Hari; Voet, Gunnar; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>High horizontal-resolution (1/12.5° and 1/25°) 41-layer global simulations of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by both atmospheric fields and the astronomical tidal potential, are used to construct global maps of sea surface height (SSH) variability. The HYCOM output is separated into steric and nonsteric and into subtidal, diurnal, semidiurnal, and supertidal frequency bands. The model SSH output is compared to two data sets that offer some geographical coverage and that also cover a wide range of frequencies—a set of 351 tide gauges that measure full SSH and a set of 14 in situ vertical profilers from which steric SSH can be calculated. Three of the global maps are of interest in planning for the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) two-dimensional swath altimeter mission: (1) maps of the total and (2) nonstationary internal tidal signal (the latter calculated after removing the stationary internal tidal signal via harmonic analysis), with an average variance of 1.05 and 0.43 cm2, respectively, for the semidiurnal band, and (3) a map of the steric supertidal contributions, which are dominated by the internal gravity wave continuum, with an average variance of 0.15 cm2. Stationary internal tides (which are predictable), nonstationary internal tides (which will be harder to predict), and nontidal internal gravity waves (which will be very difficult to predict) may all be important sources of high-frequency "noise" that could mask lower frequency phenomena in SSH measurements made by the SWOT mission.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29043197','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29043197"><span>Weighing the costs: Implementing the SLMTA programme in Zimbabwe using internal versus external facilitators.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shumba, Edwin; Nzombe, Phoebe; Mbinda, Absolom; Simbi, Raiva; Mangwanya, Douglas; Kilmarx, Peter H; Luman, Elizabeth T; Zimuto, Sibongile N</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In 2010, the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) adopted the Strengthening Laboratory Management Toward Accreditation (SLMTA) programme as a tool for laboratory quality systems strengthening. To evaluate the financial costs of SLMTA implementation using two models (external facilitators; and internal local or MoHCW facilitators) from the perspective of the implementing partner and to estimate resources needed to scale up the programme nationally in all 10 provinces. The average expenditure per laboratory was calculated based on accounting records; calculations included implementing partner expenses but excluded in-kind contributions and salaries of local facilitators and trainees. We also estimated theoretical financial costs, keeping all contextual variables constant across the two models. Resource needs for future national expansion were estimated based on a two-phase implementation plan, in which 12 laboratories in each of five provinces would implement SLMTA per phase; for the internal facilitator model, 20 facilitators would be trained at the beginning of each phase. The average expenditure to implement SLMTA in 11 laboratories using external facilitators was approximately US$5800 per laboratory; expenditure in 19 laboratories using internal facilitators was approximately $6000 per laboratory. The theoretical financial cost of implementing a 12-laboratory SLMTA cohort keeping all contextual variables constant would be approximately $58 000 using external facilitators; or $15 000 using internal facilitators, plus $86 000 to train 20 facilitators. The financial cost for subsequent SLMTA cohorts using the previously-trained internal facilitators would be approximately $15 000, yielding a break-even point of 2 cohorts, at $116 000 for either model. Estimated resources required for national implementation in 120 laboratories would therefore be $580 000 using external facilitators ($58 000 per province) and $322 000 using internal facilitators ($86 000 for facilitator training in each of two phases plus $15 000 for SLMTA implementation in each province). Investing in training of internal facilitators will result in substantial savings over the scale-up of the programme. Our study provides information to assist policy makers to develop strategic plans for investing in laboratory strengthening.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3534926','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3534926"><span>Moderators of the Association Between Exercise Identity and Obligatory Exercise Among Participants of an Athletic Event</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Karr, Trisha M.; Zunker, Christie; Thompson, Ron A.; Sherman, Roberta; Erickson, Ann; Cao, Li; Crosby, Ross D.; Mitchell, James E.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Previous research has connected exercise identity with obligatory exercise, yet to date no empirical studies have identified moderator variables of this association. The current study included participants of an athletic event (full marathon, n = 582; half marathon, n = 1,106; shorter distance, n = 733) who completed questionnaires about exercise behaviors, obligatory exercise, and internalization of both the thin-ideal and athletic-ideal body shapes. General linear model analyses were conducted to examine the exercise identity-obligatory exercise relationship; moderator variables included gender, internalization of the thin-ideal body shape, and internalization of the athletic-ideal body shape. After controlling for the effects of body mass index, age, and distance group, the three-way interaction of exercise identity, gender, and internalization of the athletic-ideal body shape predicted obligatory exercise. Findings suggest that women who report high identification with exercise and high value on having an athletic physique may be vulnerable to obligatory exercise. PMID:23092850</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27737813','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27737813"><span>The association between histological, macroscopic and magnetic resonance imaging assessed synovitis in end-stage knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Riis, R G C; Gudbergsen, H; Simonsen, O; Henriksen, M; Al-Mashkur, N; Eld, M; Petersen, K K; Kubassova, O; Bay Jensen, A C; Damm, J; Bliddal, H; Arendt-Nielsen, L; Boesen, M</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>To investigate the association between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), macroscopic and histological assessments of synovitis in end-stage knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Synovitis of end-stage osteoarthritic knees was assessed using non-contrast-enhanced (CE), contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI prior to (TKR) and correlated with microscopic and macroscopic assessments of synovitis obtained intraoperatively. Multiple bivariate correlations were used with a pre-specified threshold of 0.70 for significance. Also, multiple regression analyses with different subsets of MRI-variables as explanatory variables and the histology score as outcome variable were performed with the intention to find MRI-variables that best explain the variance in histological synovitis (i.e., highest R 2 ). A stepped approach was taken starting with basic characteristics and non-CE MRI-variables (model 1), after which CE-MRI-variables were added (model 2) with the final model also including DCE-MRI-variables (model 3). 39 patients (56.4% women, mean age 68 years, Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 4) had complete MRI and histological data. Only the DCE-MRI variable MExNvoxel (surrogate of the volume and degree of synovitis) and the macroscopic score showed correlations above the pre-specified threshold for acceptance with histological inflammation. The maximum R 2 -value obtained in Model 1 was R 2 = 0.39. In Model 2, where the CE-MRI-variables were added, the highest R 2 = 0.52. In Model 3, a four-variable model consisting of the gender, one CE-MRI and two DCE-MRI-variables yielded a R 2 = 0.71. DCE-MRI is correlated with histological synovitis in end-stage KOA and the combination of CE and DCE-MRI may be a useful, non-invasive tool in characterising synovitis in KOA. Copyright © 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27050776','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27050776"><span>Lesbian, gay, & bisexual older adults: linking internal minority stressors, chronic health conditions, and depression.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hoy-Ellis, Charles P; Fredriksen-Goldsen, Karen I</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>This study aims to: (1) test whether the minority stressors disclosure of sexual orientation; and (2) internalized heterosexism are predictive of chronic physical health conditions; and (3) depression; (4) to test direct and indirect relationships between these variables; and (5) whether chronic physical health conditions are further predictive of depression, net of disclosure of sexual orientation and internalized heterosexism. Secondary analysis of national, community-based surveys of 2349 lesbian, gay, and bisexual adults aged 50 and older residing in the US utilizing structural equation modeling. Congruent with minority stress theory, disclosure of sexual orientation is indirectly associated with chronic physical health conditions and depression, mediated by internalized heterosexism with a suppressor effect. Internalized heterosexism is directly associated with chronic physical health conditions and depression, and further indirectly associated with depression mediated by chronic physical health conditions. Finally, chronic physical health conditions have an additional direct relationship with depression, net of other predictor variables. Minority stressors and chronic physical health conditions independently and collectively predict depression, possibly a synergistic effect. Implications for depression among older sexual minority adults are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC54C2279D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC54C2279D"><span>Can unforced radiative variability explain the "hiatus"?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Donohoe, A.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>The paradox of the "hiatus" is characterized as a decade long period over which global mean surface temperature remained relatively constant even though greenhouse forcing forcing is believed to have been positive and increasing. Explanations of the hiatus have focused on two primary lines of thought: 1. There was a net radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere (TOA) but this energy input was stored in the ocean without increasing surface temperature or 2. There was no radiative imbalance at the TOA because the greenhouse forcing was offset by other climate forcings. Here, we explore a third hypothesis: that there was no TOA radiative imbalance over the decade due to unforced, natural modes of radiative variability that are unrelated to global mean temperature. Is it possible that the Earth could emit enough radiation to offset greenhouse forcing without increasing its temperature due to internal modes of climate variability? Global mean TOA energy imbalance is estimated to be 0.65 W m-2 as determined from the long term change in ocean heat content - where the majority of the energy imbalance is stored. Therefore, in order to offset this TOA energy imbalance natural modes of radiative variability with amplitudes of order 0.5 W m-2 at the decadal timescale are required. We demonstrate that unforced coupled climate models have global mean radiative variability of the required magnitude (2 standard deviations of 0.57 W m-2 in the inter-model mean) and that the vast majority (>90%) of this variability is unrelated to surface temperature radiative feedbacks. However, much of this variability is at shorter (monthly and annual) timescales and does not persist from year to year making the possibility of a decade long natural interruption of the energy accumulation in the climate system unlikely due to natural radiative variability alone given the magnitude of the greenhouse forcing on Earth. Comparison to observed satellite data suggest the models capture the magnitude (2 sigma = 0.61 W m-2) and mechanisms of internal radiative variability but we cannot exclude the possibility of low frequency modes of variability with significant magnitude given the limited length of the satellite record.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890018665','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19890018665"><span>Refinements in a viscoplastic model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Freed, A. D.; Walker, K. P.</p> <p>1989-01-01</p> <p>A thermodynamically admissible theory of viscoplasticity with two internal variables (a back stress and a drag strength) is presented. Six material functions characterize a specific viscoplastic model. In the pursuit of compromise between accuracy and simplicity, a model is developed that is a hybrid of two existing viscoplastic models. A limited number of applications of the model to Al, Cu, and Ni are presented. A novel implicit integration method is also discussed. Applications are made to obtain solutions using this viscoplastic model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1841V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1841V"><span>Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JQSRT.131...95L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JQSRT.131...95L"><span>Modeling variability in dendritic ice crystal backscattering cross sections at millimeter wavelengths using a modified Rayleigh-Gans theory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lu, Yinghui; Clothiaux, Eugene E.; Aydin, Kültegin; Botta, Giovanni; Verlinde, Johannes</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Using the Generalized Multi-particle Mie-method (GMM), Botta et al. (in this issue) [7] created a database of backscattering cross sections for 412 different ice crystal dendrites at X-, Ka- and W-band wavelengths for different incident angles. The Rayleigh-Gans theory, which accounts for interference effects but ignores interactions between different parts of an ice crystal, explains much, but not all, of the variability in the database of backscattering cross sections. Differences between it and the GMM range from -3.5 dB to +2.5 dB and are highly dependent on the incident angle. To explain the residual variability a physically intuitive iterative method was developed to estimate the internal electric field within an ice crystal that accounts for interactions between the neighboring regions within it. After modifying the Rayleigh-Gans theory using this estimated internal electric field, the difference between the estimated backscattering cross sections and those from the GMM method decreased to within 0.5 dB for most of the ice crystals. The largest percentage differences occur when the form factor from the Rayleigh-Gans theory is close to zero. Both interference effects and neighbor interactions are sensitive to the morphology of ice crystals. Improvements in ice-microphysical models are necessary to predict or diagnose internal structures within ice crystals to aid in more accurate interpretation of radar returns. Observations of the morphology of ice crystals are, in turn, necessary to guide the development of such ice-microphysical models and to better understand the statistical properties of ice crystal morphologies in different environmental conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..39.8502N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012GeoRL..39.8502N"><span>Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Notz, Dirk; Marotzke, Jochem</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>The very low summer extent of Arctic sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early-warning sign of anthropogenic global warming. For examining the validity of this claim, previously IPCC model simulations have been used. Here, we focus on the available observational record to examine if this record allows us to identify either internal variability, self-acceleration, or a specific external forcing as the main driver for the observed sea-ice retreat. We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self-acceleration as an explanation for the observed long-term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea-ice minima. Instead, the recent retreat is well described by the superposition of an externally forced linear trend and internal variability. For the externally forced trend, we find a physically plausible strong correlation only with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results hence show that the observed evolution of Arctic sea-ice extent is consistent with the claim that virtually certainly the impact of an anthropogenic climate change is observable in Arctic sea ice already today.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70033596','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70033596"><span>Permeability of continental crust influenced by internal and external forcing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Rojstaczer, S.A.; Ingebritsen, S.E.; Hayba, D.O.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The permeability of continental crust is so highly variable that it is often considered to defy systematic characterization. However, despite this variability, some order has been gleaned from globally compiled data. What accounts for the apparent coherence of mean permeability in the continental crust (and permeability-depth relations) on a very large scale? Here we argue that large-scale crustal permeability adjusts to accommodate rates of internal and external forcing. In the deeper crust, internal forcing - fluxes induced by metamorphism, magmatism, and mantle degassing - is dominant, whereas in the shallow crust, external forcing - the vigor of the hydrologic cycle - is a primary control. Crustal petrologists have long recognized the likelihood of a causal relation between fluid flux and permeability in the deep, ductile crust, where fluid pressures are typically near-lithostatic. It is less obvious that such a relation should pertain in the relatively cool, brittle upper crust, where near-hydrostatic fluid pressures are the norm. We use first-order calculations and numerical modeling to explore the hypothesis that upper-crustal permeability is influenced by the magnitude of external fluid sources, much as lower-crustal permeability is influenced by the magnitude of internal fluid sources. We compare model-generated permeability structures with various observations of crustal permeability. ?? 2008 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1959g0010E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AIPC.1959g0010E"><span>About the choice of Gibbs' potential for modelling of FCC ↔ HCP transformation in FeMnSi-based shape memory alloys</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Evard, Margarita E.; Volkov, Aleksandr E.; Belyaev, Fedor S.; Ignatova, Anna D.</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>The choice of Gibbs' potential for microstructural modeling of FCC ↔ HCP martensitic transformation in FeMn-based shape memory alloys is discussed. Threefold symmetry of the HCP phase is taken into account on specifying internal variables characterizing volume fractions of martensite variants. Constraints imposed on model constants by thermodynamic equilibrium conditions are formulated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1906k0010G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1906k0010G"><span>Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CNSNS..56...62S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CNSNS..56...62S"><span>Resonant interaction of ϕ4 kink with PT-symmetric perturbation with spatially periodic gain/loss coefficient</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saadatmand, Danial; Borisov, Denis I.; Kevrekidis, Panayotis G.; Zhou, Kun; Dmitriev, Sergey V.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The resonant interaction of the ϕ4 kink with a PT-symmetric perturbation is observed in the numerical study performed in the frame of the continuum model and with the help of a two degree of freedom collective variable model derived in PRA 89, 010102(R). The perturbation is in the form of first partial derivative in time term with a spatially periodic gain/loss coefficient. When the kink interacts with the perturbation, the kink's internal mode is excited with the amplitude varying in time quasiperiodically. The maximal value of the amplitude was found to grow when the kink velocity is such that it travels one period of the gain/loss prefactor in nearly one period of the kink's internal mode. It is also found that the kink's translational and vibrational modes are coupled in a way that an increase in the kink's internal mode amplitude results in a decrease in kink velocity. The results obtained with the collective variable method are in a good qualitative agreement with the numerical simulations for the continuum model. The results of the present study suggest that kink dynamics in open systems with balanced gain and loss can have new features in comparison with the case of conservative systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4760460','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4760460"><span>Development of internal models and predictive abilities for visual tracking during childhood</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ego, Caroline; Yüksel, Demet</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The prediction of the consequences of our own actions through internal models is an essential component of motor control. Previous studies showed improvement of anticipatory behaviors with age for grasping, drawing, and postural control. Since these actions require visual and proprioceptive feedback, these improvements might reflect both the development of internal models and the feedback control. In contrast, visual tracking of a temporarily invisible target gives specific markers of prediction and internal models for eye movements. Therefore, we recorded eye movements in 50 children (aged 5–19 yr) and in 10 adults, who were asked to pursue a visual target that is temporarily blanked. Results show that the youngest children (5–7 yr) have a general oculomotor behavior in this task, qualitatively similar to the one observed in adults. However, the overall performance of older subjects in terms of accuracy at target reappearance and variability in their behavior was much better than the youngest children. This late maturation of predictive mechanisms with age was reflected into the development of the accuracy of the internal models governing the synergy between the saccadic and pursuit systems with age. Altogether, we hypothesize that the maturation of the interaction between smooth pursuit and saccades that relies on internal models of the eye and target displacement is related to the continuous maturation of the cerebellum. PMID:26510757</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26510757','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26510757"><span>Development of internal models and predictive abilities for visual tracking during childhood.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ego, Caroline; Yüksel, Demet; Orban de Xivry, Jean-Jacques; Lefèvre, Philippe</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The prediction of the consequences of our own actions through internal models is an essential component of motor control. Previous studies showed improvement of anticipatory behaviors with age for grasping, drawing, and postural control. Since these actions require visual and proprioceptive feedback, these improvements might reflect both the development of internal models and the feedback control. In contrast, visual tracking of a temporarily invisible target gives specific markers of prediction and internal models for eye movements. Therefore, we recorded eye movements in 50 children (aged 5-19 yr) and in 10 adults, who were asked to pursue a visual target that is temporarily blanked. Results show that the youngest children (5-7 yr) have a general oculomotor behavior in this task, qualitatively similar to the one observed in adults. However, the overall performance of older subjects in terms of accuracy at target reappearance and variability in their behavior was much better than the youngest children. This late maturation of predictive mechanisms with age was reflected into the development of the accuracy of the internal models governing the synergy between the saccadic and pursuit systems with age. Altogether, we hypothesize that the maturation of the interaction between smooth pursuit and saccades that relies on internal models of the eye and target displacement is related to the continuous maturation of the cerebellum. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15386660','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15386660"><span>Using multilevel models for assessing the variability of multinational resource use and cost data.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Grieve, Richard; Nixon, Richard; Thompson, Simon G; Normand, Charles</p> <p>2005-02-01</p> <p>Multinational economic evaluations often calculate a single measure of cost-effectiveness using cost data pooled across several countries. To assess the validity of pooling international cost data the reasons for cost variation across countries need to be assessed. Previously, ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression models have been used to identify factors associated with variability in resource use and total costs. However, multilevel models (MLMs), which accommodate the hierarchical structure of the data, may be more appropriate. This paper compares these different techniques using a multinational dataset comprising case-mix, resource use and cost data on 1300 stroke admissions from 13 centres in 11 European countries. OLS and MLMs were used to estimate the effect of patient and centre-level covariates on the total length of hospital stay (LOS) and total cost. MLMs with normal and gamma distributions for the data within centres were compared. The results from the OLS model showed that both patient and centre-level covariates were associated with LOS and total cost. The estimates from the MLMs showed that none of the centre-level characteristics were associated with LOS, and the level of spending on health was the centre-level variable most highly associated with total cost. We conclude that using OLS models for assessing international variation can lead to incorrect inferences, and that MLMs are more appropriate for assessing why resource use and costs vary across centres. Copyright (c) 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008TJSAI..23..151K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008TJSAI..23..151K"><span>Adaptive Variability in Skilled Human Movements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kudo, Kazutoshi; Ohtsuki, Tatsuyuki</p> <p></p> <p>Human movements are produced in variable external/internal environments. Because of this variability, the same motor command can result in quite different movement patterns. Therefore, to produce skilled movements humans must coordinate the variability, not try to exclude it. In addition, because human movements are produced in redundant and complex systems, a combination of variability should be observed in different anatomical/physiological levels. In this paper, we introduce our research about human movement variability that shows remarkable coordination among components, and between organism and environment. We also introduce nonlinear dynamical models that can describe a variety of movements as a self-organization of a dynamical system, because the dynamical systems approach is a major candidate to understand the principle underlying organization of varying systems with huge degrees-of-freedom.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.1453K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ClDy...40.1453K"><span>A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kucharski, Fred; Zeng, Ning; Kalnay, Eugenia</p> <p>2013-03-01</p> <p>The effect of vegetation feedback on decadal-scale Sahel rainfall variability is analyzed using an ensemble of climate model simulations in which the atmospheric general circulation model ICTPAGCM ("SPEEDY") is coupled to the dynamic vegetation model VEGAS to represent feedbacks from surface albedo change and evapotranspiration, forced externally by observed sea surface temperature (SST) changes. In the control experiment, where the full vegetation feedback is included, the ensemble is consistent with the observed decadal rainfall variability, with a forced component 60 % of the observed variability. In a sensitivity experiment where climatological vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed from the control experiment, the ensemble of simulations is not consistent with the observations because of strongly reduced amplitude of decadal rainfall variability, and the forced component drops to 35 % of the observed variability. The decadal rainfall variability is driven by SST forcing, but significantly enhanced by land-surface feedbacks. Both, local evaporation and moisture flux convergence changes are important for the total rainfall response. Also the internal decadal variability across the ensemble members (not SST-forced) is much stronger in the control experiment compared with the one where vegetation cover and albedo are prescribed. It is further shown that this positive vegetation feedback is physically related to the albedo feedback, supporting the Charney hypothesis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4139471','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4139471"><span>Maternal Depressive Symptoms, Maternal Behavior, and Toddler Internalizing Outcomes: A Moderated Mediation Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hummel, Alexandra C.; Kiel, Elizabeth J.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Maternal depression relates to child internalizing outcomes, but one missing aspect of this association is how variation in depressive symptoms, including mild and moderate symptoms, relates to young children’s outcomes. The current study examined a moderated mediation model to investigate how maternal behaviors may mediate this association in the context of child temperament and gender. Mothers and toddlers completed a free-play/clean-up task in the laboratory. Mothers rated their depressive symptoms and their toddlers’ temperament and internalizing behaviors. Results indicated a significant indirect of maternal warmth on the relation between maternal depressive symptoms and toddler internalizing outcomes for boys with low negative emotionality. Toddler gender and temperament moderated the relation between maternal intrusiveness and toddler internalizing outcomes, but mediation was not supported. Results highlight the important interaction between child and maternal variables in predicting child outcomes, and suggest mechanisms by and conditions under which mild maternal depressive symptomatology can be a risk factor for toddler internalizing outcomes. PMID:24553739</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820005827','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820005827"><span>On the internal target model in a tracking task</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Caglayan, A. K.; Baron, S.</p> <p>1981-01-01</p> <p>An optimal control model for predicting operator's dynamic responses and errors in target tracking ability is summarized. The model, which predicts asymmetry in the tracking data, is dependent on target maneuvers and trajectories. Gunners perception, decision making, control, and estimate of target positions and velocity related to crossover intervals are discussed. The model provides estimates for means, standard deviations, and variances for variables investigated and for operator estimates of future target positions and velocities.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850006218','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19850006218"><span>The Impact of Pictorial Display on Operator Learning and Performance. M.S. Thesis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Miller, R. A.; Messing, L. J.; Jagacinski, R. J.</p> <p>1984-01-01</p> <p>The effects of pictorially displayed information on human learning and performance of a simple control task were investigated. The controlled system was a harmonic oscillator and the system response was displayed to subjects as either an animated pendulum or a horizontally moving dot. Results indicated that the pendulum display did not effect performance scores but did significantly effect the learning processes of individual operators. The subjects with the pendulum display demonstrated more vertical internal models early in the experiment and the manner in which their internal models were tuned with practice showed increased variability between subjects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800054761&hterms=internal+ballistics&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dinternal%2Bballistics','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800054761&hterms=internal+ballistics&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dinternal%2Bballistics"><span>An automated approach to design of solid rockets utilizing a special internal ballistics model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Sforzini, R. H.</p> <p>1980-01-01</p> <p>A pattern search technique is presented, which is utilized in a computer program that minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences, at various times, between a desired thrust-time trace and that calculated with a special mathematical internal ballistics model of a solid propellant rocket motor. The program is demonstrated by matching the thrust-time trace obtained from static tests of the first Space Shuttle SRM starting with input values of 10 variables which are, in general, 10% different from the as-built SRM. It is concluded that an excellent match is obtained.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS31C1734C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS31C1734C"><span>Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24116515','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24116515"><span>Observations of sound-speed fluctuations in the western Philippine Sea in the spring of 2009.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Colosi, John A; Van Uffelen, Lora J; Cornuelle, Bruce D; Dzieciuch, Matthew A; Worcester, Peter F; Dushaw, Brian D; Ramp, Steven R</p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>As an aid to understanding long-range acoustic propagation in the Philippine Sea, statistical and phenomenological descriptions of sound-speed variations were developed. Two moorings of oceanographic sensors located in the western Philippine Sea in the spring of 2009 were used to track constant potential-density surfaces (isopycnals) and constant potential-temperature surfaces (isotherms) in the depth range 120-2000 m. The vertical displacements of these surfaces are used to estimate sound-speed fluctuations from internal waves, while temperature/salinity variability along isopycnals are used to estimate sound-speed fluctuations from intrusive structure often termed spice. Frequency spectra and vertical covariance functions are used to describe the space-time scales of the displacements and spiciness. Internal-wave contributions from diurnal and semi-diurnal internal tides and the diffuse internal-wave field [related to the Garrett-Munk (GM) spectrum] are found to dominate the sound-speed variability. Spice fluctuations are weak in comparison. The internal wave and spice frequency spectra have similar form in the upper ocean but are markedly different below 170-m depth. Diffuse internal-wave mode spectra show a form similar to the GM model, while internal-tide mode spectra scale as mode number to the minus two power. Spice decorrelates rapidly with depth, with a typical correlation scale of tens of meters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7831M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7831M"><span>How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A31F0167L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A31F0167L"><span>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - DYNAMO Recent Project Advancements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.; Higgins, W.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within the Earth System Science (ESS) Division at NOAA's Climate Program Office. Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO): The Indian Ocean is one of Earth's most sensitive regions because the interactions between ocean and atmosphere there have a discernable effect on global climate patterns. The tropical weather that brews in that region can move eastward along the equator and reverberate around the globe, shaping weather and climate in far-off places. The vehicle for this variability is a phenomenon called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO, which originates over the Indian Ocean roughly every 30 to 90 days, is known to influence the Asian and Australian monsoons. It can also enhance hurricane activity in the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, trigger torrential rainfall along the west coast of North America, and affect the onset of El Niño. CVP-funded scientists participated in the DYNAMO field campaign in 2011-12. Results from this international campaign are expected to improve researcher's insights into this influential phenomenon. A better understanding of the processes governing MJO is an essential step toward improving their representations in numerical models and improving MJO simulation and prediction. Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized in this poster.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS31A1372M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS31A1372M"><span>Seasonal variability of Internal tide energetics in the western Bay of Bengal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mohanty, S.; Rao, A. D.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Internal Waves (IWs) are generated by the flow of barotropic tide over the rapidly varying and steep topographic features like continental shelf slope, seamounts, etc. These waves are an important phenomena in the ocean due to their influence on the density structure and energy transfer into the region. Such waves are also important in submarine acoustics, underwater navigation, offshore structures, ocean mixing and biogeochemical processes, etc. over the shelf-slope region. The seasonal variability of internal tides in the western Bay of Bengal is examined by using three-dimensional MITgcm model. The numerical simulations are performed for different periods covering August-September, 2013; November-December, 2013 and March-April, 2014 representing monsoon, post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons respectively during which high temporal resolution observed data sets are available. The model is initially validated through the spectral estimate of density and the baroclinic velocities. From the estimate, it is found that its peak is associated with the semi-diurnal frequency at all the depths in both observations and model simulations for November-December and March-April. However in August, the estimate is found to be maximum near the inertial frequency at all available depths. EOF analysis suggests that about 70-80% of the total variance comes from Mode-1 semi-diurnal internal tide in both observations as well as in the model simulations. The phase speed, group speed and wavelength are found to be maximum for post-monsoon season compared to other two seasons. To understand the generation and propagation of internal tides over this region, barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 tidal energy conversion and energy flux are examined. The barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion occurs intensively along the shelf-slope regions and propagate towards the coast. The model simulated energy dissipation rate infers that its maximum occurs at the generation sites and hence the local mixing due to internal tide is maximum at these sites. The spatial distribution of available potential energy is found to be maximum in November (20kg/m2) in northern BoB and minimum in August (14kg/m2). The detailed energy budget calculation are made for all the seasons and results are analysed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160013891&hterms=gnss&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dgnss','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160013891&hterms=gnss&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dgnss"><span>The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Melachroinos, Stavros A.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Beckley, Brian D.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10143200','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10143200"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Unseren, M.A.</p> <p></p> <p>A rigid body model for the entire system which accounts for the load distribution scheme proposed in Part 1 as well as for the dynamics of the manipulators and the kinematic constraints is derived in the joint space. A technique is presented for expressing the object dynamics in terms of the joint variables of both manipulators which leads to a positive definite and symmetric inertia matrix. The model is then transformed to obtain reduced order equations of motion and a separate set of equations which govern the behavior of the internal contact forces. The control architecture is applied to themore » model which results in the explicit decoupling of the position and internal contact force-controlled degrees of freedom (DOF).« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP21A1403A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP21A1403A"><span>Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040027041','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040027041"><span>Computational Study of Axisymmetric Off-Design Nozzle Flows</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>DalBello, Teryn; Georgiadis, Nicholas; Yoder, Dennis; Keith, Theo</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analyses of axisymmetric circular-arc boattail nozzles operating off-design at transonic Mach numbers have been completed. These computations span the very difficult transonic flight regime with shock-induced separations and strong adverse pressure gradients. External afterbody and internal nozzle pressure distributions computed with the Wind code are compared with experimental data. A range of turbulence models were examined, including the Explicit Algebraic Stress model. Computations have been completed at freestream Mach numbers of 0.9 and 1.2, and nozzle pressure ratios (NPR) of 4 and 6. Calculations completed with variable time-stepping (steady-state) did not converge to a true steady-state solution. Calculations obtained using constant timestepping (timeaccurate) indicate less variations in flow properties compared with steady-state solutions. This failure to converge to a steady-state solution was the result of using variable time-stepping with large-scale separations present in the flow. Nevertheless, time-averaged boattail surface pressure coefficient and internal nozzle pressures show reasonable agreement with experimental data. The SST turbulence model demonstrates the best overall agreement with experimental data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MS%26E..306a2082M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018MS%26E..306a2082M"><span>Utilization of Multimedia Laboratory: An Acceptance Analysis using TAM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Modeong, M.; Palilingan, V. R.</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Multimedia is often utilized by teachers to present a learning materials. Learning that delivered by multimedia enables people to understand the information of up to 60% of the learning in general. To applying the creative learning to the classroom, multimedia presentation needs a laboratory as a space that provides multimedia needs. This study aims to reveal the level of student acceptance on the multimedia laboratories, by explaining the direct and indirect effect of internal support and technology infrastructure. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) is used as the basis of measurement on this research, through the perception of usefulness, ease of use, and the intention, it’s recognized capable of predicting user acceptance about technology. This study used the quantitative method. The data analysis using path analysis that focuses on trimming models, it’s performed to improve the model of path analysis structure by removing exogenous variables that have insignificant path coefficients. The result stated that Internal Support and Technology Infrastructure are well mediated by TAM variables to measure the level of technology acceptance. The implications suggest that TAM can measure the success of multimedia laboratory utilization in Faculty of Engineering UNIMA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.1843K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.1843K"><span>Prognostic characteristics of the lowest-mode internal waves in the Sea of Okhotsk</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kurkin, Andrey; Kurkina, Oxana; Zaytsev, Andrey; Rybin, Artem; Talipova, Tatiana</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The nonlinear dynamics of short-period internal waves on ocean shelves is well described by generalized nonlinear evolutionary models of Korteweg - de Vries type. Parameters of these models such as long wave propagation speed, nonlinear and dispersive coefficients can be calculated using hydrological data (sea water density stratification), and therefore have geographical and seasonal variations. The internal wave parameters for the basin of the Sea of Okhotsk are computed on a base of recent version of hydrological data source GDEM V3.0. Geographical and seasonal variability of internal wave characteristics is investigated. It is shown that annually or seasonally averaged data can be used for linear parameters. The nonlinear parameters are more sensitive to temporal averaging of hydrological data and detailed data are preferable to use. The zones for nonlinear parameters to change their signs (so-called "turning points") are selected. Possible internal waveforms appearing in the process of internal tide transformation including the solitary waves changing polarities are simulated for the hydrological conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk shelf to demonstrate different scenarios of internal wave adjustment, transformation, refraction and cylindrical divergence.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CQGra..34t5001M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CQGra..34t5001M"><span>What is dynamics in quantum gravity?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Małkiewicz, Przemysław</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>The appearance of the Hamiltonian constraint in the canonical formalism for general relativity reflects the lack of a fixed external time. The dynamics of general relativistic systems can be expressed with respect to an arbitrarily chosen internal degree of freedom, the so-called internal clock. We investigate the way in which the choice of internal clock determines the quantum dynamics and how much different quantum dynamics induced by different clocks are. We develop our method of comparison by extending the Hamilton-Jacobi theory of contact transformations to include a new type of transformation which transforms both the canonical variables and the internal clock. We employ our method to study the quantum dynamics of the Friedmann-Lemaitre model and obtain semiclassical corrections to the classical dynamics, which depend on the choice of internal clock. For a unique quantisation map we find the abundance of inequivalent semiclassical corrections induced by quantum dynamics taking place in different internal clocks. It follows that the concepts like minimal volume, maximal curvature and the number of quantum bounces, often used to describe quantum effects in cosmological models, depend on the choice of internal clock.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5504352','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5504352"><span>Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M.; Stager, J. Curt; Cobb, Kim M.; Liu, Zhengyu</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO’s response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well. PMID:28685758</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28685758','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28685758"><span>Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pausata, Francesco S R; Zhang, Qiong; Muschitiello, Francesco; Lu, Zhengyao; Chafik, Léon; Niedermeyer, Eva M; Stager, J Curt; Cobb, Kim M; Liu, Zhengyu</p> <p>2017-07-07</p> <p>The evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the Holocene remains uncertain. In particular, a host of new paleoclimate records suggest that ENSO internal variability or other external forcings may have dwarfed the fairly modest ENSO response to precessional insolation changes simulated in climate models. Here, using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations, we show that accounting for a vegetated and less dusty Sahara during the mid-Holocene relative to preindustrial climate can reduce ENSO variability by 25%, more than twice the decrease obtained using orbital forcing alone. We identify changes in tropical Atlantic mean state and variability caused by the momentous strengthening of the West Africa Monsoon (WAM) as critical factors in amplifying ENSO's response to insolation forcing through changes in the Walker circulation. Our results thus suggest that potential changes in the WAM due to anthropogenic warming may influence ENSO variability in the future as well.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6983737-hazard-perception-economic-impact-internment-residential-land-values','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6983737-hazard-perception-economic-impact-internment-residential-land-values"><span>Hazard perception and the economic impact of internment on residential land values</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Merz, J.F.</p> <p>1983-04-01</p> <p>The potential for large scale natural and man-made hazards exists in the form of hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, dams, accidents involving poisonous, explosive or radioactive materials, and severe pollution or waste disposal mishaps. Regions prone to natural hazards and areas located proximally to technological hazards may be subject to economic losses from low probability-high consequence events. Economic costs may be incurred in: evacuation and relocation of inhabitants; personal, industrial, agricultural, and tax revenue losses; decontamination; property damage or loss of value; and temporary or prolonged internment of land. The value of land in an area subjected to a low probability-highmore » consequence event may decrease, reflecting, a fortiori, a reluctance to continue living in the area or to repopulate a region which had required internment. The future value of such land may be described as a function of location, time, interdiction period (if applicable), and variables reflecting the magnitude of the perceived hazard. This paper presents a study of these variables and proposes a model for land value estimation. As an example, the application of the model to the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York is presented.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27322735','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27322735"><span>Preoperative nomogram to predict the likelihood of complications after radical nephroureterectomy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Raman, Jay D; Lin, Yu-Kuan; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Krabbe, Laura-Maria; Margulis, Vitaly; Arnouk, Alex; Lallas, Costas D; Trabulsi, Edouard J; Drouin, Sarah J; Rouprêt, Morgan; Bozzini, Gregory; Colin, Pierre; Peyronnet, Benoit; Bensalah, Karim; Bailey, Kari; Canes, David; Klatte, Tobias</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>To construct a nomogram based on preoperative variables to better predict the likelihood of complications occurring within 30 days of radical nephroureterectomy (RNU). The charts of 731 patients undergoing RNU at eight academic medical centres between 2002 and 2014 were reviewed. Preoperative clinical, demographic and comorbidity indices were collected. Complications occurring within 30 days of surgery were graded using the modified Clavien-Dindo scale. Multivariate logistic regression determined the association between preoperative variables and post-RNU complications. A nomogram was created from the reduced multivariate model with internal validation using the bootstrapping technique with 200 repetitions. A total of 408 men and 323 women with a median age of 70 years and a body mass index of 27 kg/m 2 were included. A total of 75% of the cohort was white, 18% had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥2, 20% had a Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score >5 and 50% had baseline chronic kidney disease (CKD) ≥ stage III. Overall, 279 patients (38%) experienced a complication, including 61 events (22%) with Clavien grade ≥ III. A multivariate model identified five variables associated with complications, including patient age, race, ECOG performance status, CKD stage and CCI score. A preoperative nomogram incorporating these risk factors was constructed with an area under curve of 72.2%. Using standard preoperative variables from this multi-institutional RNU experience, we constructed and validated a nomogram for predicting peri-operative complications after RNU. Such information may permit more accurate risk stratification on an individual cases basis before major surgery. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24563677','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24563677"><span>Analysis and Modeling of Chromosome Congression During Mitosis in the Chemotherapy Drug Cisplatin.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chacón, Jeremy M; Gardner, Melissa K</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The chemotherapy drug Cisplatin (cis-diamminedichloroplatinum(II)) induces crosslinks within and between DNA strands, and between DNA and nearby proteins. Therefore, Cisplatin-treated cells which progress into cell division may do so with altered chromosome mechanical properties. This could have important consequences for the successful completion of mitosis. Using Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence (TIRF) microscopy of live Cisplatin-treated Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells, we found that metaphase mitotic spindles have disorganized kinetochores relative to untreated cells, and also that there is increased variability in the chromosome stretching distance between sister centromeres. This suggests that chromosome stiffness may become more variable after Cisplatin treatment. We explored the effect of variable chromosome stiffness during mitosis using a stochastic model in which kinetochore microtubule dynamics were regulated by tension imparted by stretched sister chromosomes. Consistent with experimental results, increased variability of chromosome stiffness in the model led to disorganization of kinetochores in simulated metaphase mitotic spindles. Furthermore, the variability in simulated chromosome stretching tension was increased as chromosome stiffness became more variable. Because proper chromosome stretching tension may serve as a signal that is required for proper progression through mitosis, tension variability could act to impair this signal and thus prevent proper mitotic progression. Our results suggest a possible mitotic mode of action for the anti-cancer drug Cisplatin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JMBM...24...25H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JMBM...24...25H"><span>Modeling the zonal disintegration of rocks near deep level tunnels by gradient internal variable continuous phase transition theory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Haoxiang, Chen; Qi, Chengzhi; Peng, Liu; Kairui, Li; Aifantis, Elias C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The occurrence of alternating damage zones surrounding underground openings (commonly known as zonal disintegration) is treated as a "far from thermodynamic equilibrium" dynamical process or a nonlinear continuous phase transition phenomenon. The approach of internal variable gradient theory with diffusive transport, which may be viewed as a subclass of Landau's phase transition theory, is adopted. The order parameter is identified with an irreversible strain quantity, the gradient of which enters into the expression for the free energy of the rock system. The gradient term stabilizes the material behavior in the post-softening regime, where zonal disintegration occurs. The results of a simplified linearized analysis are confirmed by the numerical solution of the nonlinear problem.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006ClDy...26..247P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006ClDy...26..247P"><span>Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Power, Scott; Colman, Rob</p> <p>2006-02-01</p> <p>Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial “ wings” in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit “ENSO-like” decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency (reddens the spectrum) of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. At low frequencies, dissipation acts as an additional low pass filter that becomes more effective, as latitude increases. At the same time, ENSO-driven off-equatorial surface heating anomalies drive mixed layer temperature responses in both hemispheres. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of surface heat fluxes by the surface mixed layer act to low pass filter the ENSO-forcing. The resulting off-equatorial variability is therefore more coherent with low pass filtered (decadal) ENSO indices [e.g. NINO3 sea-surface temperature (SST)] than with unfiltered ENSO indices. Consequently large correlations between variability and NINO3 extend further poleward on decadal time-scales than they do on interannual time-scales. This explains why decadal ENSO-like patterns have a broader meridional structure than their interannual counterparts. This difference in appearance can occur even if ENSO indices do not have any predictability beyond interannual time-scales. The wings around 15-20°S, and sub-surface variability at many other locations are predictable on interannual and multi-year time-scales. This includes westward propagating internal RWs within about 25° of the equator. The slowest of these take up to 4 years to reach the western boundary. This sub-surface predictability has significant oceanographic interest. However, it is linked to only low levels of SST variability. Consequently, extrapolation of delayed action oscillator theory to decadal time-scales might not be justified.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920062192&hterms=Thorndike&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DThorndike','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920062192&hterms=Thorndike&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3DThorndike"><span>A toy model linking atmospheric thermal radiation and sea ice growth</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Thorndike, A. S.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>A simplified analytical model of sea ice growth is presented where the atmosphere is in thermal radiative equilibrium with the ice. This makes the downwelling longwave radiation reaching the ice surface an internal variable rather than a specified forcing. Analytical results demonstrate how the ice state depends on properties of the ice and on the externally specified climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=international+AND+outsourcing&pg=4&id=EJ897435','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=international+AND+outsourcing&pg=4&id=EJ897435"><span>A Study on the Employee Turnover Antecedents in ITES/BPO Sector</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Sree Rekha, K. R.; Kamalanabhan, T. J.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>This paper aims at testing a conceptual model connecting variables of the internal and external work environment to ITES/BPO employee turnover. Based on the gaps identified from the literature that no single model explains in a comprehensive way as to why, people choose to leave and the lack of turnover studies on call centers located in India.…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG34A..08H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG34A..08H"><span>Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H53H1817A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H53H1817A"><span>Conceptualisation of Snowpack Isotope Dynamics in Spatially Distributed Tracer-Aided Runoff Models in Snow Influenced Northern Cathments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ala-aho, P. O. A.; Tetzlaff, D.; Laudon, H.; McNamara, J. P.; Soulsby, C.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We use the Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff (STARR) modelling framework to explore non-stationary flow and isotope response in three northern headwater catchments. The model simulates dynamic, spatially variable tracer concentration in different water stores and fluxes within a catchment, which can constrain internal catchment mixing processes, flow paths and associated water ages. To date, a major limitation in using such models in snow-dominated catchments has been the difficulties in paramaterising the isotopic transformations in snowpack accumulation and melt. We use high quality long term datasets for hydrometrics and stable water isotopes collected in three northern study catchments for model calibration and testing. The three catchments exhibit different hydroclimatic conditions, soil and vegetation types, and topographic relief, which brings about variable degree of snow dominance across the catchments. To account for the snow influence we develop novel formulations to estimate the isotope evolution in the snowpack and melt. Algorithms for the isotopic evolution parameterize an isotopic offset between snow evaporation and melt fluxes and the remaining snow storage. The model for each catchment is calibrated to match both streamflow and tracer concentration at the stream outlet to ensure internal consistency of the system behaviour. The model is able to reproduce the streamflow along with the spatio-temporal differences in tracer concentrations across the three studies catchments reasonably well. Incorporating the spatially distributed snowmelt processes and associated isotope transformations proved essential in capturing the stream tracer reponse for strongly snow-influenced cathments. This provides a transferrable tool which can be used to understand spatio-temporal variability of mixing and water ages for different storages and flow paths in other snow influenced, environments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.131.1449J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.131.1449J"><span>Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913295B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913295B"><span>Models are likely to underestimate increase in heavy rainfall in regions with high rainfall intensity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Borodina, Aleksandra; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Model projections of heavy rainfall are uncertain. On timescales of few decades, internal variability plays an important role and therefore poses a challenge to detect robust model responses. We show that spatial aggregation across regions with intense heavy rainfall events, - defined as grid cells with high annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day), - allows to reduce the role of internal variability and thus to detect a robust signal during the historical period. This enables us to evaluate models with observational datasets and to constrain long-term projections of the intensification of heavy rainfall, i.e., to recalibrate full model ensemble consistent with observations resulting in narrower range of projections. In the regions of intense heavy rainfall, we found two present-day metrics that are related to a model's projection. The first metric is the observed relationship between the area-weighted mean of the annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and the global land temperatures. The second is the fraction of land exhibiting statistically significant relationships between local annual precipitation maxima (Rx1day) and global land temperatures over the historical period. The models that simulate high values in both metrics are those that are in better agreement with observations and show strong future intensification of heavy rainfall. This implies that changes in heavy rainfall are likely to be more intense than anticipated from the multi-model mean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22353044','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22353044"><span>"Ordinary men" or "evil monsters"? An action systems model of genocidal actions and characteristics of perpetrators.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hollows, Kerrilee; Fritzon, Katarina</p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>This study aimed to address the limitations of the existing genocide literature with the development of an empirically based classification system. Using Shye's (1985) action systems model, it was hypothesized that four types of perpetrators would exist and would be distinguishable by differences in the sources and target of individual criminal actions. Court transcripts from 80 perpetrators sentenced by the international courts were subject to content analysis and revealed 39 offense action variables, 17 perpetrator characteristic variables, and 6 perpetrator motive variables. A smallest space analysis using the Jaccard coefficient of association was conducted on the offense variables. The results supported the proposed framework, producing four distinct types of genocidal perpetrators. Correlational analyses were then conducted to examine the relationships between each of the perpetrator types and the remaining variables. The results of those correlations provided further support for the proposed framework. The implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29150840','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29150840"><span>Longitudinal pathways between mental health difficulties and academic performance during middle childhood and early adolescence.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Deighton, Jessica; Humphrey, Neil; Belsky, Jay; Boehnke, Jan; Vostanis, Panos; Patalay, Praveetha</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>There is a growing appreciation that child functioning in different domains, levels, or systems are interrelated over time. Here, we investigate links between internalizing symptoms, externalizing problems, and academic attainment during middle childhood and early adolescence, drawing on two large data sets (child: mean age 8.7 at enrolment, n = 5,878; adolescent: mean age 11.7, n = 6,388). Using a 2-year cross-lag design, we test three hypotheses - adjustment erosion, academic incompetence, and shared risk - while also examining the moderating influence of gender. Multilevel structural equation models provided consistent evidence of the deleterious effect of externalizing problems on later academic achievement in both cohorts, supporting the adjustment-erosion hypothesis. Evidence supporting the academic-incompetence hypothesis was restricted to the middle childhood cohort, revealing links between early academic failure and later internalizing symptoms. In both cohorts, inclusion of shared-risk variables improved model fit and rendered some previously established cross-lag pathways non-significant. Implications of these findings are discussed, and study strengths and limitations noted. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Longitudinal research and in particular developmental cascades literature make the case for weaker associations between internalizing symptoms and academic performance than between externalizing problems and academic performance. Findings vary in terms of the magnitude and inferred direction of effects. Inconsistencies may be explained by different age ranges, prevalence of small-to-modest sample sizes, and large time lags between measurement points. Gender differences remain underexamined. What does this study add? The present study used cross-lagged models to examine longitudinal associations in age groups (middle child and adolescence) in a large-scale British sample. The large sample size not only allows for improvements on previous measurement models (e.g., allowing the analysis to account for nesting, and estimation of latent variables) but also allows for examination of gender differences. The findings clarify the role of shared-risk factors in accounting for associations between internalizing, externalizing, and academic performance, by demonstrating that shared-risk factors do not fully account for relationships between internalizing, externalizing, and academic achievement. Specifically, some pathways between mental health and academic attainment consistently remain, even after shared-risk variables have been accounted for. Findings also present consistent support for the potential impact of behavioural problems on children's academic attainment. The negative relationship between low academic attainment and subsequent internalizing symptoms for younger children is also noteworthy. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006021','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006021"><span>A Priori Analysis of a Compressible Flamelet Model using RANS Data for a Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Quinlan, Jesse R.; Drozda, Tomasz G.; McDaniel, James C.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In an effort to make large eddy simulation of hydrocarbon-fueled scramjet combustors more computationally accessible using realistic chemical reaction mechanisms, a compressible flamelet/progress variable (FPV) model was proposed that extends current FPV model formulations to high-speed, compressible flows. Development of this model relied on observations garnered from an a priori analysis of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) data obtained for the Hypersonic International Flight Research and Experimentation (HI-FiRE) dual-mode scramjet combustor. The RANS data were obtained using a reduced chemical mechanism for the combustion of a JP-7 surrogate and were validated using avail- able experimental data. These RANS data were then post-processed to obtain, in an a priori fashion, the scalar fields corresponding to an FPV-based modeling approach. In the current work, in addition to the proposed compressible flamelet model, a standard incompressible FPV model was also considered. Several candidate progress variables were investigated for their ability to recover static temperature and major and minor product species. The effects of pressure and temperature on the tabulated progress variable source term were characterized, and model coupling terms embedded in the Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes equations were studied. Finally, results for the novel compressible flamelet/progress variable model were presented to demonstrate the improvement attained by modeling the effects of pressure and flamelet boundary conditions on the combustion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27831708','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27831708"><span>Suicidal ideation in transgender people: Gender minority stress and interpersonal theory factors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Testa, Rylan J; Michaels, Matthew S; Bliss, Whitney; Rogers, Megan L; Balsam, Kimberly F; Joiner, Thomas</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Research has revealed alarmingly high rates of suicidal ideation (SI) and suicide attempts among transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) people. This study aims to analyze the role of factors from the gender minority stress and resilience (GMSR) model (Testa, Habarth, Peta, Balsam, & Bockting, 2015), the interpersonal-psychological theory of suicide (IPTS; Joiner, 2005; Van Orden et al., 2010), and the potential integration of these factors, in explaining SI in this population. A convenience sample of 816 TGNC adults responded to measures of current SI, gender minority stressors, and IPTS factors. Path analysis was utilized to test 2 models. Model 1 evaluated the associations between external minority stressors and SI through internal minority stressors. Model 2 examined the relationships between internal minority stressors and SI through IPTS variables (perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness). All GMSR external stressors (rejection, nonaffirmation, victimization, and discrimination), internal stressors (internalized transphobia, negative expectations, and nondisclosure), and IPTS factors (thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness) were related to SI. Both models demonstrated good fit. Model 1 revealed that rejection, nonaffirmation, and victimization were related to SI through experiences of internalized transphobia and negative expectations. Model 2 indicated that internalized transphobia and negative expectations were associated with SI through IPTS factors. The models demonstrate pathways through which GMSR and IPTS constructs relate to one another and confer risk for SI among TGNC individuals. These pathways and several recently proposed constructs examined here provide promising directions for future research and clinical interventions in this area. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29374176','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29374176"><span>Decadal climate predictability in the southern Indian Ocean captured by SINTEX-F using a simple SST-nudging scheme.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Morioka, Yushi; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K</p> <p>2018-01-26</p> <p>Decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean has great influences on southern African climate through modulation of atmospheric circulation. Although many efforts have been made to understanding physical mechanisms, predictability of the decadal climate variability, in particular, the internally generated variability independent from external atmospheric forcing, remains poorly understood. This study investigates predictability of the decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean using a coupled general circulation model, called SINTEX-F. The ensemble members of the decadal reforecast experiments were initialized with a simple sea surface temperature (SST) nudging scheme. The observed positive and negative peaks during late 1990s and late 2000s are well reproduced in the reforecast experiments initiated from 1994 and 1999, respectively. The experiments initiated from 1994 successfully capture warm SST and high sea level pressure anomalies propagating from the South Atlantic to the southern Indian Ocean. Also, the other experiments initiated from 1999 skillfully predict phase change from a positive to negative peak. These results suggest that the SST-nudging initialization has the essence to capture the predictability of the internally generated decadal climate variability in the southern Indian Ocean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5735782','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5735782"><span>Association between internalized stigma and depression among HIV-positive persons entering into care in Southern India</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chan, Brian T; Pradeep, Amrose; Prasad, Lakshmi; Murugesan, Vinothini; Chandrasekaran, Ezhilarasi; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Mayer, Kenneth H; Tsai, Alexander C</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Background In India, which has the third largest HIV epidemic in the world, depression and HIV–related stigma may contribute to high rates of poor HIV–related outcomes such as loss to care and lack of virologic suppression. Methods We analyzed data from a large HIV treatment center in southern India to estimate the burden of depressive symptoms and internalized stigma among Indian people living with HIV (PLHIV) entering into HIV care and to test the hypothesis that probable depression was associated with internalized stigma. We fitted modified Poisson regression models, adjusted for sociodemographic variables, with probable depression (PHQ–9 score ≥10 or recent suicidal thoughts) as the outcome variable and the Internalized AIDS–Related Stigma Scale (IARSS) score as the explanatory variable. Findings 521 persons (304 men and 217 women) entering into HIV care between January 2015 and May 2016 were included in the analyses. The prevalence of probable depression was 10% and the mean IARSS score was 2.4 (out of 6), with 82% of participants endorsing at least one item on the IARSS. There was a nearly two times higher risk of probable depression for every additional point on the IARSS score (Adjusted Risk Ratio: 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.56–2.14). Conclusions Depression and internalized stigma are highly correlated among PLHIV entering into HIV care in southern India and may provide targets for policymakers seeking to improve HIV–related outcomes in India. PMID:29302315</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1111428B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..1111428B"><span>Internal and forced eddy variability in the Labrador Sea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bracco, A.; Luo, H.; Zhong, Y.; Lilly, J.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea, widely believed to be one of the key regions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), now appears to be strongly impacted by vortex dynamics of the unstable boundary current. Large interannual variations in both eddy shedding and buoyancy transport from the boundary current have been observed but not explained, and are apparently sensitive to the state of the inflowing current. Heat and salinity fluxes associated with the eddies drive ventilation changes not accounted for by changes in local surface forcing, particularly during occasional years of extreme eddy activity, and constitute a predominant source of "internal" oceanic variability. The nature of this variable eddy-driven restratification is one of the outstanding questions along the northern transformation pathway. Here we investigate the eddy generation mechanism and the associated buoyancy fluxes by combining realistic and idealized numerical modeling, data analysis, and theory. Theory, supported by idealized experiments, provides criteria to test hypotheses as to the vortex formation process (by baroclinic instability linked to the bottom topography). Ensembles of numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional model (ROMS) allow for quantifying the sensitivity of eddy generation and property transport to variations in local and external forcing parameters. For the first time, we reproduce with a numerical simulation the observed interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy in the convective region of the Labrador Basin and along the West Greenland Current.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23F2435L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23F2435L"><span>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Observing and Understanding Processes Affecting the Propagation of Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Maritime Continent Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, S. E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). In 2017, the CVP Program had a call for proposals focused on observing and understanding processes affecting the propagation of intraseasonal oscillations in the Maritime Continent region. This poster will present the recently funded CVP projects, the expected scientific outcomes, the geographic areas of their work in the Maritime Continent region, and the collaborations with the Office of Naval Research, Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and other partners.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020091880&hterms=almonds&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dalmonds','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020091880&hterms=almonds&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dalmonds"><span>Development and Implementation of an Empirical Ionosphere Variability Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Minow, Joesph I.; Almond, Deborah (Technical Monitor)</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Spacecraft designers and operations support personnel involved in space environment analysis for low Earth orbit missions require ionospheric specification and forecast models that provide not only average ionospheric plasma parameters for a given set of geophysical conditions but the statistical variations about the mean as well. This presentation describes the development of a prototype empirical model intended for use with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) to provide ionospheric Ne and Te variability. We first describe the database of on-orbit observations from a variety of spacecraft and ground based radars over a wide range of latitudes and altitudes used to obtain estimates of the environment variability. Next, comparison of the observations with the IRI model provide estimates of the deviations from the average model as well as the range of possible values that may correspond to a given IRI output. Options for implementation of the statistical variations in software that can be run with the IRI model are described. Finally, we provide example applications including thrust estimates for tethered satellites and specification of sunrise Ne, Te conditions required to support spacecraft charging issues for satellites with high voltage solar arrays.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN11B0033T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN11B0033T"><span>Statistical Compression of Wind Speed Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tagle, F.; Castruccio, S.; Crippa, P.; Genton, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>In this work we introduce a lossy compression approach that utilizes a stochastic wind generator based on a non-Gaussian distribution to reproduce the internal climate variability of daily wind speed as represented by the CESM Large Ensemble over Saudi Arabia. Stochastic wind generators, and stochastic weather generators more generally, are statistical models that aim to match certain statistical properties of the data on which they are trained. They have been used extensively in applications ranging from agricultural models to climate impact studies. In this novel context, the parameters of the fitted model can be interpreted as encoding the information contained in the original uncompressed data. The statistical model is fit to only 3 of the 30 ensemble members and it adequately captures the variability of the ensemble in terms of seasonal internannual variability of daily wind speed. To deal with such a large spatial domain, it is partitioned into 9 region, and the model is fit independently to each of these. We further discuss a recent refinement of the model, which relaxes this assumption of regional independence, by introducing a large-scale component that interacts with the fine-scale regional effects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED544558.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED544558.pdf"><span>TIMSS 2011 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Student, Home, Teacher, and School Questionnaire Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Foy, Pierre, Ed.; Arora, Alka, Ed.; Stanco, Gabrielle M., Ed.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TIMSS 2011 data files that are based on background questionnaire variables. These variables were used to report background data in the TIMSS 2011 International Results in Mathematics and TIMSS 2011 International Results in Science reports, and are made available…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28108009','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28108009"><span>Which factors are most predictive for live birth after in vitro fertilization and intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatments? Analysis of 100 prospectively recorded variables in 8,400 IVF/ICSI single-embryo transfers.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vaegter, Katarina Kebbon; Lakic, Tatevik Ghukasyan; Olovsson, Matts; Berglund, Lars; Brodin, Thomas; Holte, Jan</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>To construct a prediction model for live birth after in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) treatment and single-embryo transfer (SET) after 2 days of embryo culture. Prospective observational cohort study. University-affiliated private infertility center. SET in 8,451 IVF/ICSI treatments in 5,699 unselected consecutive couples during 1999-2014. A total of 100 basal patient characteristics and treatment data were analyzed for associations with live birth after IVF/ICSI (adjusted for repeated treatments) and subsequently combined for prediction model construction. Live birth rate (LBR) and performance of live birth prediction model. Embryo score, treatment history, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI; number of oocytes/total dose of FSH administered), female age, infertility cause, endometrial thickness, and female height were all independent predictors of live birth. A prediction model (training data set; n = 5,722) based on these variables showed moderate discrimination, but predicted LBR with high accuracy in subgroups of patients, with LBR estimates ranging from <10% to >40%. Outcomes were similar in an internal validation data set (n = 2,460). Based on 100 variables prospectively recorded during a 15-year period, a model for live birth prediction after strict SET was constructed and showed excellent calibration in internal validation. For the first time, female height qualified as a predictor of live birth after IVF/ICSI. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5119746','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5119746"><span>Stress Responsivity and the Structure of Common Mental Disorders: Transdiagnostic Internalizing and Externalizing Dimensions are Associated with Contrasting Stress Appraisal Biases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Conway, Christopher C.; Starr, Lisa R.; Espejo, Emmanuel P.; Brennan, Patricia A.; Hammen, Constance</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Biased stress appraisals critically relate to the origins and temporal course of many—perhaps most—forms of psychopathology. We hypothesized that aberrant stress appraisals are linked directly to latent internalizing and externalizing traits that, in turn, predispose to multiple disorders. A high-risk community sample of 815 adolescents underwent semistructured interviews to assess clinical disorders and naturalistic stressors at ages 15 and 20. Participants and blind rating teams separately evaluated the threat associated with acute stressors occurring in the past year, and an appraisal bias index (i.e., discrepancy between subjective and team-rated threat) was generated. A two-factor (Internalizing and Externalizing) latent variable model provided an excellent fit to the diagnostic correlations. After adjusting for the covariation between the factors, adolescents’ threat overestimation prospectively predicted higher standing on Internalizing, whereas threat underestimation prospectively predicted elevations on Externalizing. Cross-sectional analyses replicated this pattern in early adulthood. Appraisals were not related to the residual portions of any diagnosis in the latent variable model, suggesting that the transdiagnostic dimensions mediated the connections between stress appraisal bias and disorder entities. We discuss implications for enhancing the efficiency of emerging research on the stress response and speculate how these findings, if replicated, might guide refinements to psychological treatments for stress-linked disorders. PMID:27819469</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatCC...8..414L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatCC...8..414L"><span>Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lopez, Hosmay; West, Robert; Dong, Shenfu; Goni, Gustavo; Kirtman, Ben; Lee, Sang-Ki; Atlas, Robert</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves. However, the time at which externally forced signals of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) emerge against background natural variability (time of emergence (ToE)) has been challenging to quantify, which makes future heat-wave projections uncertain. Here we combine observations and model simulations under present and future forcing to assess how internal variability and ACC modulate US heat waves. We show that ACC dominates heat-wave occurrence over the western United States and Great Lakes regions, with ToE that occurred as early as the 2020s and 2030s, respectively. In contrast, internal variability governs heat waves in the northern and southern Great Plains, where ToE occurs in the 2050s and 2070s; this later ToE is believed to be a result of a projected increase in circulation variability, namely the Great Plain low-level jet. Thus, greater mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed in the Great Lakes and western United States regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRD..120.8621S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRD..120.8621S"><span>Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9118173','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9118173"><span>Variability in symptom expression among sexually abused girls: developing multivariate models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Spaccarelli, S; Fuchs, C</p> <p>1997-03-01</p> <p>Examined which of several apparent risk variables were predictors of internalizing and externalizing problems in 48 girls who were referred for therapy after disclosing sexual abuse. Specifically, the effects of abuse characteristics, support from nonoffending parents, victims' coping strategies, and victims' cognitive appraisals on symptomatology were assessed. As hypothesized, results indicated that internalizing and externalizing problems were associated with different sets of predictor variables. Victims' self-reports of depression and anxiety were related to lower perceived support from nonoffending parents, more use of cognitive avoidance coping, and more negative appraisals of the abuse. These results were partially replicated when using parent-report measures of depression, but were not replicated for parent reports of victim anxiety. Incest was the only variable that was significantly related to parent-reported anxiety. Parent-reported aggressive behaviors were predicted by level of abuse-related stress; and aggression, social problems, and sexual problems were all related to the tendency to cope by controlling others. Social problems were also related to coping by self-distraction. Regression analyses were done for each dependent variable to examine which predictors accounted for unique variance when controlling for other significant zero-order correlates. Implications of these results for understanding variability in symptom expression among sexual abuse victims are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1377777-cmip5-scientific-gaps-recommendations-cmip6','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1377777-cmip5-scientific-gaps-recommendations-cmip6"><span>CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.; ...</p> <p>2017-01-23</p> <p>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377777','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1377777"><span>CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.</p> <p></p> <p>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA579787','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA579787"><span>Modeling and Prediction of Internal Waves in the South China Sea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Islands Soliton Experiment), while VANS (Variability Around the Northern South China Sea) involved researchers from Taiwan. In addition to...troughs. These rough/smooth regions are distinctive features in satellite Imagery of the sea surface and appear as bands of light and dark</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC52D..04W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC52D..04W"><span>Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Williams, P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25929152','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25929152"><span>Work stress and emotional exhaustion in nurses: the mediating role of internal locus of control.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Partlak Günüşen, Neslihan; Ustün, Besti; Erdem, Sabri</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Burnout is a major problem for nursing. There is a strong relationship between work stress and emotional exhaustion. Although studies report a negative correlation between the internal locus of control and emotional exhaustion and work stress, the number of studies available on the subject is limited. This study intends to examine the extent to which the relationship between work stress and emotional exhaustion is mediated by nurses' internal locus of control. The study adopted a cross-sectional survey design. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling techniques. The study sample consisted of 347 nurses who worked in a university hospital in Izmir, Turkey and who agreed to participate in the study. The Work-Related Strain Inventory was used to evaluate the nurses' work stress level, Maslach Burnout Inventory was used to evaluate their emotional exhaustion levels, and the Locus of Control Scale was used to evaluate the internal locus of control. The variables of the study were based on the Neuman Systems Model. Work stress was positively related to internal locus of control (β3 = .21, p < .001), which was, in turn, negatively associated with emotional exhaustion (β = -.03, p > 0.1). Internal locus of control was negatively related to emotional exhaustion (β = -.14, p < .001). Work stress is directly (β = .87, p < .001) and indirectly related to emotional exhaustion (mediated by internal locus of control β = .84, p < .001). Work stress is directly (β = .87, p < .001) and indirectly related to emotional exhaustion (mediated by internal locus of control, β = .84, p < .001). Although the relationship between emotional exhaustion and work stress was mediated, the impact of internal locus of control was limited. It is recommended that different variables be included in future studies so that they can mediate the relationship between work stress and emotional exhaustion.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA571437','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA571437"><span>Estimation of Ocean and Seabed Parameters and Processes Using Low Frequency Acoustic Signals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-09-01</p> <p>Dr. Mohsen Badiey (University of Delaware), Kevin Smith (Naval Postgraduate School), Dr. James F. Lynch and Dr. Y.-T. Lin (Woods Hole Oceanographic...Wilson (ARL, University of Texas) in this topic. 3. Finite Element Modeling of wave propagation: Doctoral student, Hui- Kwan Kim, is modeling wave...student Hui- Kwan Kim is focusing on finite element modeling of wave propagation. RESULTS 1. Acoustic variability in the presence of internal waves</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930012816','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930012816"><span>Structural Tailoring of Advanced Turboprops (STAT). Theoretical manual</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Brown, K. W.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>This manual describes the theories in the Structural Tailoring of Advanced Turboprops (STAT) computer program, which was developed to perform numerical optimizations on highly swept propfan blades. The optimization procedure seeks to minimize an objective function, defined as either direct operating cost or aeroelastic differences between a blade and its scaled model, by tuning internal and external geometry variables that must satisfy realistic blade design constraints. The STAT analyses include an aerodynamic efficiency evaluation, a finite element stress and vibration analysis, an acoustic analysis, a flutter analysis, and a once-per-revolution (1-p) forced response life prediction capability. The STAT constraints include blade stresses, blade resonances, flutter, tip displacements, and a 1-P forced response life fraction. The STAT variables include all blade internal and external geometry parameters needed to define a composite material blade. The STAT objective function is dependent upon a blade baseline definition which the user supplies to describe a current blade design for cost optimization or for the tailoring of an aeroelastic scale model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992STIN...9322005B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1992STIN...9322005B"><span>Structural Tailoring of Advanced Turboprops (STAT). Theoretical manual</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brown, K. W.</p> <p>1992-10-01</p> <p>This manual describes the theories in the Structural Tailoring of Advanced Turboprops (STAT) computer program, which was developed to perform numerical optimizations on highly swept propfan blades. The optimization procedure seeks to minimize an objective function, defined as either direct operating cost or aeroelastic differences between a blade and its scaled model, by tuning internal and external geometry variables that must satisfy realistic blade design constraints. The STAT analyses include an aerodynamic efficiency evaluation, a finite element stress and vibration analysis, an acoustic analysis, a flutter analysis, and a once-per-revolution (1-p) forced response life prediction capability. The STAT constraints include blade stresses, blade resonances, flutter, tip displacements, and a 1-P forced response life fraction. The STAT variables include all blade internal and external geometry parameters needed to define a composite material blade. The STAT objective function is dependent upon a blade baseline definition which the user supplies to describe a current blade design for cost optimization or for the tailoring of an aeroelastic scale model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19740008138','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19740008138"><span>Heat transfer phase change paint test (OH-42) of a Rockwell International SSV orbiter in the NASA/LRC Mach 8 variable density wind tunnel</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jones, R.; Creel, T. R., Jr.; Lawing, P.; Quan, M.; Dye, W.; Cummings, J.; Gorowitz, H.; Craig, C.; Rich, G.</p> <p>1973-01-01</p> <p>Phase change paint tests of a Rockwell International .00593-scale space shuttle orbiter were conducted in the Langley Research Center's Variable Density Wind Tunnel. The test objectives were to determine the effects of various wing/underbody configurations on the aerodynamic heating rates and boundary layer transition during simulated entry conditions. Several models were constructed. Each varied from the other in either wing cuff radius, airfoil thickness, or wing-fuselage underbody blending. Two ventral fins were glued to the fuselage underside of one model to test the interference heating effects. Simulated Mach 8 entry data were obtained for each configuration at angles of attack ranging from 25 to 40 deg, and a Reynolds number variation of one million to eight million. Elevon, bodyflap, and rudder flare deflections were tested. Oil flow visualization and Schlieren photographs were obtained to aid in reducing the phase change paint data as well as to observe the flow patterns peculiar to each configuration.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27289519','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27289519"><span>Internalized weight bias mediates the relationship between depressive symptoms and disordered eating behavior among women who think they are overweight.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sienko, Rachel M; Saules, Karen K; Carr, Meagan M</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>This study tested the potential mediating role of Internalized Weight Bias (IWB) in the relationship between depressive symptoms (DEP-SX) and disordered eating behavior. In particular, we hypothesized that IWB may be an intervening variable in the well documented association between depression and disordered eating. College women (N=172) who were taking undergraduate psychology courses and who endorsed thinking they were overweight completed the Patient Health Questionnaire depression screener (PHQ-9), the Weight Bias Internalization Scale (WBIS), and the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q). Bootstrapping mediation analyses were conducted to explore the relationships between these variables. IWB was significantly correlated with eating disorder symptoms and DEP-SX, but not Body Mass Index. Mediation analyses supported a model in which IWB mediated the relationship between DEP-SX and disordered eating behavior. Results indicate that individuals with elevated DEP-SX may be likely to internalize weight bias, which may in turn lead to maladaptive approaches to eating and weight control, regardless of one's actual weight status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17668664','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17668664"><span>Neural control of fast nonlinear systems--application to a turbocharged SI engine with VCT.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Colin, Guillaume; Chamaillard, Yann; Bloch, Gérard; Corde, Gilles</p> <p>2007-07-01</p> <p>Today, (engine) downsizing using turbocharging appears as a major way in reducing fuel consumption and pollutant emissions of spark ignition (SI) engines. In this context, an efficient control of the air actuators [throttle, turbo wastegate, and variable camshaft timing (VCT)] is needed for engine torque control. This paper proposes a nonlinear model-based control scheme which combines separate, but coordinated, control modules. Theses modules are based on different control strategies: internal model control (IMC), model predictive control (MPC), and optimal control. It is shown how neural models can be used at different levels and included in the control modules to replace physical models, which are too complex to be online embedded, or to estimate nonmeasured variables. The results obtained from two different test benches show the real-time applicability and good control performance of the proposed methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29734075','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29734075"><span>Development of European NO2 Land Use Regression Model for present and future exposure assessment: Implications for policy analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Vizcaino, Pilar; Lavalle, Carlo</p> <p>2018-05-04</p> <p>A new Land Use Regression model was built to develop pan-European 100 m resolution maps of NO 2 concentrations. The model was built using NO 2 concentrations from routine monitoring stations available in the Airbase database as dependent variable. Predictor variables included land use, road traffic proxies, population density, climatic and topographical variables, and distance to sea. In order to capture international and inter regional disparities not accounted for with the mentioned predictor variables, additional proxies of NO 2 concentrations, like levels of activity intensity and NO x emissions for specific sectors, were also included. The model was built using Random Forest techniques. Model performance was relatively good given the EU-wide scale (R 2 = 0.53). Output predictions of annual average concentrations of NO 2 were in line with other existing models in terms of spatial distribution and values of concentration. The model was validated for year 2015, comparing model predictions derived from updated values of independent variables, with concentrations in monitoring stations for that year. The algorithm was then used to model future concentrations up to the year 2030, considering different emission scenarios as well as changes in land use, population distribution and economic factors assuming the most likely socio-economic trends. Levels of exposure were derived from maps of concentration. The model proved to be a useful tool for the ex-ante evaluation of specific air pollution mitigation measures, and more broadly, for impact assessment of EU policies on territorial development. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16673944','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16673944"><span>Sources of motivation, interpersonal conflict management styles, and leadership effectiveness: a structural model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Barbuto, John E; Xu, Ye</p> <p>2006-02-01</p> <p>126 leaders and 624 employees were sampled to test the relationship between sources of motivation and conflict management styles of leaders and how these variables influence effectiveness of leadership. Five sources of motivation measured by the Motivation Sources Inventory were tested-intrinsic process, instrumental, self-concept external, self-concept internal, and goal internalization. These sources of work motivation were associated with Rahim's modes of interpersonal conflict management-dominating, avoiding, obliging, complying, and integrating-and to perceived leadership effectiveness. A structural equation model tested leaders' conflict management styles and leadership effectiveness based upon different sources of work motivation. The model explained variance for obliging (65%), dominating (79%), avoiding (76%), and compromising (68%), but explained little variance for integrating (7%). The model explained only 28% of the variance in leader effectiveness.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAMES...9.1595P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JAMES...9.1595P"><span>An advanced stochastic weather generator for simulating 2-D high-resolution climate variables</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>A new stochastic weather generator, Advanced WEather GENerator for a two-dimensional grid (AWE-GEN-2d) is presented. The model combines physical and stochastic approaches to simulate key meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution: 2 km × 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m × 100 m and 1 h for near-surface air temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, and near-surface wind. The model requires spatially distributed data for the calibration process, which can nowadays be obtained by remote sensing devices (weather radar and satellites), reanalysis data sets and ground stations. AWE-GEN-2d is parsimonious in terms of computational demand and therefore is particularly suitable for studies where exploring internal climatic variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is fundamental. Applications of the model include models of environmental systems, such as hydrological and geomorphological models, where high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological forcing is crucial. The weather generator was calibrated and validated for the Engelberg region, an area with complex topography in the Swiss Alps. Model test shows that the climate variables are generated by AWE-GEN-2d with a level of accuracy that is sufficient for many practical applications.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B23C0209M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B23C0209M"><span>Model evaluation using a community benchmarking system for land surface models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Kluzek, E. B.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Evaluation of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models is an important step in identifying deficiencies in Earth system models and developing improved estimates of future change. For the land surface and carbon cycle, the design of an open-source system has been an important objective of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we evaluated CMIP5 and CLM models using a benchmarking system that enables users to specify models, data sets, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of global datasets, including climatological mean spatial patterns, seasonal cycle dynamics, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Variable-to-variable comparisons enable investigation of the mechanistic underpinnings of model behavior, and allow for some control of biases in model drivers. Graphics modules allow users to evaluate model performance at local, regional, and global scales. Use of modular structures makes it relatively easy for users to add new variables, diagnostic metrics, benchmarking datasets, or model simulations. Diagnostic results are automatically organized into HTML files, so users can conveniently share results with colleagues. We used this system to evaluate atmospheric carbon dioxide, burned area, global biomass and soil carbon stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, ecosystem respiration, terrestrial water storage, evapotranspiration, and surface radiation from CMIP5 historical and ESM historical simulations. We found that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most variables. We plan to publicly release a stable version of the software during fall of 2014 that has land surface, carbon cycle, hydrology, radiation and energy cycle components.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED542385.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED542385.pdf"><span>TEDS-M 2008 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Educator and Future Teacher Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Brese, Falk, Ed.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TEDS-M educator and future teacher data files. These derived variables were used to report data in the TEDS-M international reports. The variables that constitute the scales and indices are made available as part of the TEDS-M International Database to be used in…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19830018568','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19830018568"><span>Thrust performance of a variable-geometry, divergent exhaust nozzle on a turbojet engine at altitude</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Straight, D. M.; Collom, R. R.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>A variable geometry, low aspect ratio, nonaxisymmetric, two dimensional, convergent-divergent exhaust nozzle was tested at simulated altitude on a turbojet engine to obtain baseline axial, dry thrust performance over wide ranges of operating nozzle pressure ratios, throat areas, and internal expansion area ratios. The thrust data showed good agreement with theory and scale model test results after the data were corrected for seal leakage and coolant losses. Wall static pressure profile data were also obtained and compared with one dimensional theory and scale model data. The pressure data indicate greater three dimensional flow effects in the full scale tests than with models. The leakage and coolant penalties were substantial, and the method to determine them is included.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375428','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375428"><span>Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.</p> <p></p> <p>The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375428-comparison-simulated-reconstructed-variations-east-african-hydroclimate-over-last-millennium','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375428-comparison-simulated-reconstructed-variations-east-african-hydroclimate-over-last-millennium"><span>Comparison of simulated and reconstructed variations in East African hydroclimate over the last millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Klein, Francois; Goosse, Hugues; Graham, Nicholas E.; ...</p> <p>2016-07-13</p> <p>The multi-decadal to centennial hydroclimate changes in East Africa over the last millennium are studied by comparing the results of forced transient simulations by six general circulation models (GCMs) with published hydroclimate reconstructions from four lakes: Challa and Naivasha in equatorial East Africa, and Masoko and Malawi in southeastern inter-tropical Africa. All GCMs simulate fairly well the unimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation in the Masoko–Malawi region, while the bimodal seasonal cycle characterizing the Challa–Naivasha region is generally less well captured by most models. Model results and lake-based hydroclimate reconstructions display very different temporal patterns over the last millennium. Additionally, theremore » is no common signal among the model time series, at least until 1850. This suggests that simulated hydroclimate fluctuations are mostly driven by internal variability rather than by common external forcing. After 1850, half of the models simulate a relatively clear response to forcing, but this response is different between the models. Overall, the link between precipitation and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the pre-industrial portion of the last millennium is stronger and more robust for the Challa–Naivasha region than for the Masoko–Malawi region. At the inter-annual timescale, last-millennium Challa–Naivasha precipitation is positively (negatively) correlated with western (eastern) Indian Ocean SST, while the influence of the Pacific Ocean appears weak and unclear. Although most often not significant, the same pattern of correlations between East African rainfall and the Indian Ocean SST is still visible when using the last-millennium time series smoothed to highlight centennial variability, but only in fixed-forcing simulations. Furthermore, this means that, at the centennial timescale, the effect of (natural) climate forcing can mask the imprint of internal climate variability in large-scale teleconnections.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H33B1356M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H33B1356M"><span>Design and development of a community carbon cycle benchmarking system for CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Riley, W. J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Randerson, J. T.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Benchmarking has been widely used to assess the ability of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface models to capture the spatial and temporal variability of observations during the historical period. For the carbon cycle and terrestrial ecosystems, the design and development of an open-source community platform has been an important goal as part of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Here we designed and developed a software system that enables the user to specify the models, benchmarks, and scoring systems so that results can be tailored to specific model intercomparison projects. We used this system to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 Earth system models (ESMs). Our scoring system used information from four different aspects of climate, including the climatological mean spatial pattern of gridded surface variables, seasonal cycle dynamics, the amplitude of interannual variability, and long-term decadal trends. We used this system to evaluate burned area, global biomass stocks, net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration from CMIP5 historical simulations. Initial results indicated that the multi-model mean often performed better than many of the individual models for most of the observational constraints.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23234101','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23234101"><span>Construction of a memory battery for computerized administration, using item response theory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ferreira, Aristides I; Almeida, Leandro S; Prieto, Gerardo</p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>In accordance with Item Response Theory, a computer memory battery with six tests was constructed for use in the Portuguese adult population. A factor analysis was conducted to assess the internal structure of the tests (N = 547 undergraduate students). According to the literature, several confirmatory factor models were evaluated. Results showed better fit of a model with two independent latent variables corresponding to verbal and non-verbal factors, reproducing the initial battery organization. Internal consistency reliability for the six tests were alpha = .72 to .89. IRT analyses (Rasch and partial credit models) yielded good Infit and Outfit measures and high precision for parameter estimation. The potential utility of these memory tasks for psychological research and practice willbe discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760018247','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760018247"><span>Analysis of effect of internal and operating variables on performance of SVDS constraint model (ABIND)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pendergrass, J. R.; Walsh, R. L.</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>An examination of the factors which modify the simulation of a constraint in the motion of the aft attach points of the orbiter and external tank during separation has been made. The factors considered were both internal (spring and damper constants) and external (friction coefficient and dynamic pressure). The results show that an acceptable choice of spring/damper constant combinations exist over the expected range of the external factors and that the choice is consistent with a practical integration interval. The constraint model is shown to produce about a 10 percent increase in the relative body pitch angles over the unconstrained case whereas the MDC-STL constraint model is shown to produce about a 38 percent increase.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SpWea..16..230A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018SpWea..16..230A"><span>Ionospheric Peak Electron Density and Performance Evaluation of IRI-CCIR Near Magnetic Equator in Africa During Two Extreme Solar Activities</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Adebesin, B. O.; Rabiu, A. B.; Obrou, O. K.; Adeniyi, J. O.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The F2 layer peak electron density (NmF2) was investigated over Korhogo (Geomagnetic: 1.26°S, 67.38°E), a station near the magnetic equator in the African sector. Data for 1996 and 2000 were, respectively, categorized into low solar quiet and disturbed and high solar quiet and disturbed. NmF2 prenoon peak was higher than the postnoon peak during high solar activity irrespective of magnetic activity condition, while the postnoon peak was higher for low solar activity. Higher NmF2 peak amplitude characterizes disturbed magnetic activity than quiet magnetic condition for any solar activity. The maximum peaks appeared in equinox. June solstice noontime bite out lagged other seasons by 1-2 h. For any condition of solar and magnetic activities, the daytime NmF2 percentage variability (%VR) measured by the relative standard deviation maximizes/minimizes in June solstice/equinox. Daytime variability increases with increasing magnetic activity. The highest peak in the morning time NmF2 variability occurs in equinox, while the highest evening/nighttime variability appeared in June solstice for all solar/magnetic conditions. The nighttime annual variability amplitude is higher during disturbed than quiet condition regardless of solar activity period. At daytime, variability is similar for all conditions of solar activities. NmF2 at Korhogo is well represented on the International Reference Ionosphere-International Radio Consultative Committee (IRI-CCIR) option. The model/observation relationship performed best between local midnight and postmidnight period (00-08 LT). The noontime trough characteristics is not prominent in the IRI pattern during high solar activity but evident during low solar conditions when compared with Korhogo observations. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients revealed better model performance during disturbed activities.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23996901','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23996901"><span>Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=engineering+AND+stereotype&pg=7&id=EJ1041566','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=engineering+AND+stereotype&pg=7&id=EJ1041566"><span>Public Views on the Gendering of Mathematics and Related Careers: International Comparisons</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Forgasz, Helen; Leder, Gilah; Tan, Hazel</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Mathematics continues to be an enabling discipline for Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)-based university studies and related careers. Explanatory models for females' underrepresentation in higher level mathematics and STEM-based courses comprise learner-related and environmental variables--including societal beliefs. Using…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011ClDy...37.1293P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011ClDy...37.1293P"><span>Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé</p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24060439','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24060439"><span>Prediction of thoracic injury severity in frontal impacts by selected anatomical morphomic variables through model-averaged logistic regression approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Peng; Parenteau, Chantal; Wang, Lu; Holcombe, Sven; Kohoyda-Inglis, Carla; Sullivan, June; Wang, Stewart</p> <p>2013-11-01</p> <p>This study resulted in a model-averaging methodology that predicts crash injury risk using vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables and assesses the importance of individual predictors. The effectiveness of this methodology was illustrated through analysis of occupant chest injuries in frontal vehicle crashes. The crash data were obtained from the International Center for Automotive Medicine (ICAM) database for calendar year 1996 to 2012. The morphomic data are quantitative measurements of variations in human body 3-dimensional anatomy. Morphomics are obtained from imaging records. In this study, morphomics were obtained from chest, abdomen, and spine CT using novel patented algorithms. A NASS-trained crash investigator with over thirty years of experience collected the in-depth crash data. There were 226 cases available with occupants involved in frontal crashes and morphomic measurements. Only cases with complete recorded data were retained for statistical analysis. Logistic regression models were fitted using all possible configurations of vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables. Different models were ranked by the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). An averaged logistic regression model approach was used due to the limited sample size relative to the number of variables. This approach is helpful when addressing variable selection, building prediction models, and assessing the importance of individual variables. The final predictive results were developed using this approach, based on the top 100 models in the AIC ranking. Model-averaging minimized model uncertainty, decreased the overall prediction variance, and provided an approach to evaluating the importance of individual variables. There were 17 variables investigated: four vehicle, four demographic, and nine morphomic. More than 130,000 logistic models were investigated in total. The models were characterized into four scenarios to assess individual variable contribution to injury risk. Scenario 1 used vehicle variables; Scenario 2, vehicle and demographic variables; Scenario 3, vehicle and morphomic variables; and Scenario 4 used all variables. AIC was used to rank the models and to address over-fitting. In each scenario, the results based on the top three models and the averages of the top 100 models were presented. The AIC and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were reported in each model. The models were re-fitted after removing each variable one at a time. The increases of AIC and the decreases of AUC were then assessed to measure the contribution and importance of the individual variables in each model. The importance of the individual variables was also determined by their weighted frequencies of appearance in the top 100 selected models. Overall, the AUC was 0.58 in Scenario 1, 0.78 in Scenario 2, 0.76 in Scenario 3 and 0.82 in Scenario 4. The results showed that morphomic variables are as accurate at predicting injury risk as demographic variables. The results of this study emphasize the importance of including morphomic variables when assessing injury risk. The results also highlight the need for morphomic data in the development of human mathematical models when assessing restraint performance in frontal crashes, since morphomic variables are more "tangible" measurements compared to demographic variables such as age and gender. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003PhRvE..68d6119T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003PhRvE..68d6119T"><span>Memory effects in microscopic traffic models and wide scattering in flow-density data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Treiber, Martin; Helbing, Dirk</p> <p>2003-10-01</p> <p>By means of microscopic simulations we show that noninstantaneous adaptation of the driving behavior to the traffic situation together with the conventional method to measure flow-density data provides a possible explanation for the observed inverse-λ shape and the wide scattering of flow-density data in “synchronized” congested traffic. We model a memory effect in the response of drivers to the traffic situation for a wide class of car-following models by introducing an additional dynamical variable (the “subjective level of service”) describing the adaptation of drivers to the surrounding traffic situation during the past few minutes and couple this internal state to parameters of the underlying model that are related to the driving style. For illustration, we use the intelligent-driver model (IDM) as the underlying model, characterize the level of service solely by the velocity, and couple the internal variable to the IDM parameter “time gap” to model an increase of the time gap in congested traffic (“frustration effect”), which is supported by single-vehicle data. We simulate open systems with a bottleneck and obtain flow-density data by implementing “virtual detectors.” The shape, relative size, and apparent “stochasticity” of the region of the scattered data points agree nearly quantitatively with empirical data. Wide scattering is even observed for identical vehicles, although the proposed model is a time-continuous, deterministic, single-lane car-following model with a unique fundamental diagram.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JMPSo..70..382D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JMPSo..70..382D"><span>A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables. Part II - Validation and localization analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Das, Arghya; Tengattini, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang D.; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Hall, Stephen A.; Einav, Itai</p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>We study the mechanical failure of cemented granular materials (e.g., sandstones) using a constitutive model based on breakage mechanics for grain crushing and damage mechanics for cement fracture. The theoretical aspects of this model are presented in Part I: Tengattini et al. (2014), A thermomechanical constitutive model for cemented granular materials with quantifiable internal variables, Part I - Theory (Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids, 10.1016/j.jmps.2014.05.021). In this Part II we investigate the constitutive and structural responses of cemented granular materials through analyses of Boundary Value Problems (BVPs). The multiple failure mechanisms captured by the proposed model enable the behavior of cemented granular rocks to be well reproduced for a wide range of confining pressures. Furthermore, through comparison of the model predictions and experimental data, the micromechanical basis of the model provides improved understanding of failure mechanisms of cemented granular materials. In particular, we show that grain crushing is the predominant inelastic deformation mechanism under high pressures while cement failure is the relevant mechanism at low pressures. Over an intermediate pressure regime a mixed mode of failure mechanisms is observed. Furthermore, the micromechanical roots of the model allow the effects on localized deformation modes of various initial microstructures to be studied. The results obtained from both the constitutive responses and BVP solutions indicate that the proposed approach and model provide a promising basis for future theoretical studies on cemented granular materials.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4355087','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4355087"><span>Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chang, Timothy S.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Page, C. David; Buckingham, William R.; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J.; Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Arndt, Brian G.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Guilbert, Theresa W.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin’s Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5–50 years over a three-year period. Each patient’s home address was geocoded to one of 3,456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin’s geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. PMID:25533437</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25533437','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25533437"><span>Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1265479-invited-review-review-deterministic-effects-cyclic-variability-internal-combustion-engines','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1265479-invited-review-review-deterministic-effects-cyclic-variability-internal-combustion-engines"><span>Invited Review: A review of deterministic effects in cyclic variability of internal combustion engines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Finney, Charles E.; Kaul, Brian C.; Daw, C. Stuart; ...</p> <p>2015-02-18</p> <p>Here we review developments in the understanding of cycle to cycle variability in internal combustion engines, with a focus on spark-ignited and premixed combustion conditions. Much of the research on cyclic variability has focused on stochastic aspects, that is, features that can be modeled as inherently random with no short term predictability. In some cases, models of this type appear to work very well at describing experimental observations, but the lack of predictability limits control options. Also, even when the statistical properties of the stochastic variations are known, it can be very difficult to discern their underlying physical causes andmore » thus mitigate them. Some recent studies have demonstrated that under some conditions, cyclic combustion variations can have a relatively high degree of low dimensional deterministic structure, which implies some degree of predictability and potential for real time control. These deterministic effects are typically more pronounced near critical stability limits (e.g. near tipping points associated with ignition or flame propagation) such during highly dilute fueling or near the onset of homogeneous charge compression ignition. We review recent progress in experimental and analytical characterization of cyclic variability where low dimensional, deterministic effects have been observed. We describe some theories about the sources of these dynamical features and discuss prospects for interactive control and improved engine designs. In conclusion, taken as a whole, the research summarized here implies that the deterministic component of cyclic variability will become a pivotal issue (and potential opportunity) as engine manufacturers strive to meet aggressive emissions and fuel economy regulations in the coming decades.« less</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3204977','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3204977"><span>Relating Neuronal to Behavioral Performance: Variability of Optomotor Responses in the Blowfly</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Rosner, Ronny; Warzecha, Anne-Kathrin</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Behavioral responses of an animal vary even when they are elicited by the same stimulus. This variability is due to stochastic processes within the nervous system and to the changing internal states of the animal. To what extent does the variability of neuronal responses account for the overall variability at the behavioral level? To address this question we evaluate the neuronal variability at the output stage of the blowfly's (Calliphora vicina) visual system by recording from motion-sensitive interneurons mediating head optomotor responses. By means of a simple modelling approach representing the sensory-motor transformation, we predict head movements on the basis of the recorded responses of motion-sensitive neurons and compare the variability of the predicted head movements with that of the observed ones. Large gain changes of optomotor head movements have previously been shown to go along with changes in the animals' activity state. Our modelling approach substantiates that these gain changes are imposed downstream of the motion-sensitive neurons of the visual system. Moreover, since predicted head movements are clearly more reliable than those actually observed, we conclude that substantial variability is introduced downstream of the visual system. PMID:22066014</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4412608','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4412608"><span>Climate Variability and Human Migration in the Netherlands, 1865–1937</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Jennings, Julia A.; Gray, Clark L.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Human migration is frequently cited as a potential social outcome of climate change and variability, and these effects are often assumed to be stronger in the past when economies were less developed and markets more localized. Yet, few studies have used historical data to test the relationship between climate and migration directly. In addition, the results of recent studies that link demographic and climate data are not consistent with conventional narratives of displacement responses. Using longitudinal individual-level demographic data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN) and climate data that cover the same period, we examine the effects of climate variability on migration using event history models. Only internal moves in the later period and for certain social groups are associated with negative climate conditions, and the strength and direction of the observed effects change over time. International moves decrease with extreme rainfall, suggesting that the complex relationships between climate and migration that have been observed for contemporary populations extend into the nineteenth century. PMID:25937689</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43K..04X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43K..04X"><span>Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122..539Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122..539Z"><span>Mapping the nonstationary internal tide with satellite altimetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zaron, Edward D.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Temporal variability of the internal tide has been inferred from the 23 year long combined records of the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-2 satellite altimeters by combining harmonic analysis with an analysis of along-track wavenumber spectra of sea-surface height (SSH). Conventional harmonic analysis is first applied to estimate and remove the stationary components of the tide at each point along the reference ground tracks. The wavenumber spectrum of the residual SSH is then computed, and the variance in a neighborhood around the wavenumber of the mode-1 baroclinic M2 tide is interpreted as the sum of noise, broadband nontidal processes, and the nonstationary tide. At many sites a bump in the spectrum associated with the internal tide is noted, and an empirical model for the noise and nontidal processes is used to estimate the nonstationary semidiurnal tidal variance. The results indicate a spatially inhomogeneous pattern of tidal variability. Nonstationary tides are larger than stationary tides throughout much of the equatorial Pacific and Indian Oceans.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3483M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3483M"><span>Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940029452','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940029452"><span>A Fully Associative, Non-Linear Kinematic, Unified Viscoplastic Model for Titanium Based Matrices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential based multiaxial unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable that is associated with dislocation substructure, with an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of non-linear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This non-linear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated) and greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. Specification of an experimental program for the complete determination of the material functions and parameters for characterizing a metallic matrix, e.g., TIMETAL 21S, is given. The experiments utilized are tensile, creep, and step creep tests. Finally, a comparison of this model and a commonly used Bodner-Partom model is made on the basis of predictive accuracy and numerical efficiency.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25599673','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25599673"><span>Factors associated with adoption of health information technology: a conceptual model based on a systematic review.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kruse, Clemens Scott; DeShazo, Jonathan; Kim, Forest; Fulton, Lawrence</p> <p>2014-05-23</p> <p>The Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (HITECH) allocated $19.2 billion to incentivize adoption of the electronic health record (EHR). Since 2009, Meaningful Use Criteria have dominated information technology (IT) strategy. Health care organizations have struggled to meet expectations and avoid penalties to reimbursements from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Organizational theories attempt to explain factors that influence organizational change, and many theories address changes in organizational strategy. However, due to the complexities of the health care industry, existing organizational theories fall short of demonstrating association with significant health care IT implementations. There is no organizational theory for health care that identifies, groups, and analyzes both internal and external factors of influence for large health care IT implementations like adoption of the EHR. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify a full-spectrum of both internal organizational and external environmental factors associated with the adoption of health information technology (HIT), specifically the EHR. The result is a conceptual model that is commensurate with the complexity of with the health care sector. We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed (restricted to English), EBSCO Host, and Google Scholar for both empirical studies and theory-based writing from 1993-2013 that demonstrated association between influential factors and three modes of HIT: EHR, electronic medical record (EMR), and computerized provider order entry (CPOE). We also looked at published books on organizational theories. We made notes and noted trends on adoption factors. These factors were grouped as adoption factors associated with various versions of EHR adoption. The resulting conceptual model summarizes the diversity of independent variables (IVs) and dependent variables (DVs) used in articles, editorials, books, as well as quantitative and qualitative studies (n=83). As of 2009, only 16.30% (815/4999) of nonfederal, acute-care hospitals had adopted a fully interoperable EHR. From the 83 articles reviewed in this study, 16/83 (19%) identified internal organizational factors and 9/83 (11%) identified external environmental factors associated with adoption of the EHR, EMR, or CPOE. The conceptual model for EHR adoption associates each variable with the work that identified it. Commonalities exist in the literature for internal organizational and external environmental factors associated with the adoption of the EHR and/or CPOE. The conceptual model for EHR adoption associates internal and external factors, specific to the health care industry, associated with adoption of the EHR. It becomes apparent that these factors have some level of association, but the association is not consistently calculated individually or in combination. To better understand effective adoption strategies, empirical studies should be performed from this conceptual model to quantify the positive or negative effect of each factor.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015152','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015152"><span>On the Temporal Variability of Low-Mode Internal Tides in the Deep Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>In situ measurements of internal tides are typically characterized by high temporal variability, with strong dependence on stratification, mesoscale eddies, and background currents commonly observed. Thus, it is surprising to find phase-locked internal tides detectable by satellite altimetry. An important question is how much tidal variability is missed by altimetry. We address this question in several ways. We subset the altimetry by season and find only very small changes -- an important exception being internal tides in the South China Sea where we observe strong seasonal dependence. A wavenumber-domain analysis confirms that throughout most of the global ocean there is little temporal variability in altimetric internal-tide signals, at least in the first baroclinic mode, which is the mode that dominates surface elevation. The analysis shows higher order modes to be significantly more variable. The results of this study have important practical implications for the anticipated SWOT wide-swath altimeter mission, for which removal of internal tide signals is critical for observing non-tidal submesoscale phenomena.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.1675D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.1675D"><span>Modelling Inter-relationships among water, governance, human development variables in developing countries with Bayesian networks.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dondeynaz, C.; Lopez-Puga, J.; Carmona-Moreno, C.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Improving Water and Sanitation Services (WSS), being a complex and interdisciplinary issue, passes through collaboration and coordination of different sectors (environment, health, economic activities, governance, and international cooperation). This inter-dependency has been recognised with the adoption of the "Integrated Water Resources Management" principles that push for the integration of these various dimensions involved in WSS delivery to ensure an efficient and sustainable management. The understanding of these interrelations appears as crucial for decision makers in the water sector in particular in developing countries where WSS still represent an important leverage for livelihood improvement. In this framework, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed a coherent database (WatSan4Dev database) containing 29 indicators from environmental, socio-economic, governance and financial aid flows data focusing on developing countries (Celine et al, 2011 under publication). The aim of this work is to model the WatSan4Dev dataset using probabilistic models to identify the key variables influencing or being influenced by the water supply and sanitation access levels. Bayesian Network Models are suitable to map the conditional dependencies between variables and also allows ordering variables by level of influence on the dependent variable. Separated models have been built for water supply and for sanitation because of different behaviour. The models are validated if complying with statistical criteria but either with scientific knowledge and literature. A two steps approach has been adopted to build the structure of the model; Bayesian network is first built for each thematic cluster of variables (e.g governance, agricultural pressure, or human development) keeping a detailed level for interpretation later one. A global model is then built based on significant indicators of each cluster being previously modelled. The structure of the relationships between variable are set a priori according to literature and/or experience in the field (expert knowledge). The statistical validation is verified according to error rate of classification, and the significance of the variables. Sensibility analysis has also been performed to characterise the relative influence of every single variable in the model. Once validated, the models allow the estimation of impact of each variable on the behaviour of the water supply or sanitation providing an interesting mean to test scenarios and predict variables behaviours. The choices made, methods and description of the various models, for each cluster as well as the global model for water supply and sanitation will be presented. Key results and interpretation of the relationships depicted by the models will be detailed during the conference.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSEC14E1052C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSEC14E1052C"><span>Spatio-temporal variability of internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico studied with the Navy Coastal Ocean Model, NCOM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cambazoglu, M. K.; Jacobs, G. A.; Howden, S. D.; Book, J. W.; Arnone, R.; Soto Ramos, I. M.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Greer, A. T.; Miles, T. N.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Internal waves enhance mixing in the upper ocean, transport nutrients and plankton over the water column and across the shelf from deeper waters to shallower coastal areas, and could also transport pollutants such as hydrocarbons onshore during an oil spill event. This study aims to characterize internal waves in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) and investigate the possible generation and dissipation mechanisms using a high-resolution (1-km) application of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Three dimensional model products are used to detect the propagation patterns of internal waves. The vertical structure of internal waves is studied and the role of stratification is analyzed by looking at the temperature, salinity and velocity variations along the water column. The model predictions suggest the generation of internal waves on the continental shelf, therefore the role of ocean bottom topography interacting with tides and general circulation features such as the Loop Current Eddy front, on the internal wave generation will be discussed. The time periods of internal wave occurrences are identified from model predictions and compared to satellite ocean color imagery. Further data analysis, e.g. Fourier analysis, is implemented to determine internal wavelengths and frequencies and to determine if the response of internal waves are at tidal periods or at different frequencies. The atmospheric forcing provided to NCOM and meteorological data records are analyzed to define the interaction between wind forcing and internal wave generation. Wavelet analysis characterizes the ocean response to atmospheric events with periodic frequencies. Ocean color satellite imagery was used to visualize the location of the Mississippi river plume (and other oceanic features) and compared to the model predictions because the enhanced stratification from freshwater plumes which propagate across the Mississippi Bight can provide favorable conditions in coastal waters for internal wave generation and propagation. The findings of this study will provide insight about the internal wave dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico and their potential impact on the marine ecosystem.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29473192','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29473192"><span>Thinness and muscularity internalization: Associations with disordered eating and muscle dysmorphia in men.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Klimek, Patrycja; Murray, Stuart B; Brown, Tiffany; Gonzales Iv, Manuel; Blashill, Aaron J</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The tripartite influence model of body image identifies internalization of societal body ideals as a risk factor for developing body dissatisfaction, and subsequent disordered eating behavior. In men, internalization of two dimensions of body image ideals, thinness and muscularity, is associated with body dissatisfaction and eating concerns. However, it is unknown how thinness and muscularity internalization interact in predicting muscle dysmorphia and disordered eating in men. Data were collected online from 180 undergraduate men, with ages ranging from 18 to 33 years (19.6, SD = 2.6). Regression models were used to test the interactive effects of thinness and muscularity internalization on (a) muscle dysmorphia symptoms and (b) disordered eating. Subsequent simple slope analyses probed effects at the mean, and ±1 standard deviation of thinness internalization. Muscularity and thinness internalization were independently positively related to muscle dysmorphia symptoms and disordered eating. Additionally, a significant interaction revealed that muscularity internalization was increasingly related to muscle dysmorphia symptoms as thinness internalization decreased. Men who internalized the muscular ideal had higher levels of muscle dysmorphia when they did not highly internalize the thin ideal. However, greater internalization of both the muscularity and thin ideal independently may be most relevant in the development of disordered eating in men. Future research is needed to explore variability in experiences of muscle dysmorphia compared with disordered eating in males. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5400366','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5400366"><span>Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Hunter, Lori M.; Riosmena, Fernando</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move. PMID:28439146</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439146','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28439146"><span>Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Runfola, Daniel M; Hunter, Lori M; Riosmena, Fernando</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=male+AND+contraceptives&pg=6&id=EJ199240','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=male+AND+contraceptives&pg=6&id=EJ199240"><span>Premarital Contraceptives Usage among Male and Female Adolescents.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Hornick, Joesph P.; And Others</p> <p>1979-01-01</p> <p>Variables important in predicting female contraception usage were found to be those which involved dyadic commitment, conditions of love, self-esteem, and father's occupation (social class). The best predictors of male contraception usage involved experience in dating and internalization of role models via mother's and father's permissiveness.…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=gdp&pg=2&id=EJ1027597','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=gdp&pg=2&id=EJ1027597"><span>A Holistic Model to Infer Mathematics Performance: The Interrelated Impact of Student, Family and School Context Variables</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Zhao, Ningning; Valcke, Martin; Desoete, Annemie; Zhu, Chang; Sang, Guoyuan; Verhaeghe, JeanPierre</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The present study aims at exploring predictors influencing mathematics performance. In particular, the study focuses on internal students' characteristics (gender, age, metacognitive experience, mathematics self-efficacy) and external contextual factors (GDP of school location, parents' educational level, teachers' educational level, and teacher…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Infographics&pg=4&id=ED120861','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Infographics&pg=4&id=ED120861"><span>Environmental Uncertainty and Communication Network Complexity: A Cross-System, Cross-Cultural Test.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Danowski, James</p> <p></p> <p>An infographic model is proposed to account for the operation of systems within their information environments. Infographics is a communication paradigm used to indicate the clustering of information processing variables in communication systems. Four propositions concerning environmental uncertainty and internal communication network complexity,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21051128','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21051128"><span>Correlates and consequences of internalized stigma for people living with mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Livingston, James D; Boyd, Jennifer E</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>An expansive body of research has investigated the experiences and adverse consequences of internalized stigma for people with mental illness. This article provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the extant research regarding the empirical relationship between internalized stigma and a range of sociodemographic, psychosocial, and psychiatric variables for people who live with mental illness. An exhaustive review of the research literature was performed on all articles published in English that assessed a statistical relationship between internalized stigma and at least one other variable for adults who live with mental illness. In total, 127 articles met the inclusion criteria for systematic review, of which, data from 45 articles were extracted for meta-analyses. None of the sociodemographic variables that were included in the study were consistently or strongly correlated with levels of internalized stigma. The review uncovered a striking and robust negative relationship between internalized stigma and a range of psychosocial variables (e.g., hope, self-esteem, and empowerment). Regarding psychiatric variables, internalized stigma was positively associated with psychiatric symptom severity and negatively associated with treatment adherence. The review draws attention to the lack of longitudinal research in this area of study which has inhibited the clinical relevance of findings related to internalized stigma. The study also highlights the need for greater attention on disentangling the true nature of the relationship between internalized stigma and other psychosocial variables. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4814704','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4814704"><span>Influence of Body Composition on Gait Kinetics throughout Pregnancy and Postpartum Period</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Branco, Marco; Santos-Rocha, Rita; Vieira, Filomena; Silva, Maria-Raquel; Aguiar, Liliana; Veloso, António P.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Pregnancy leads to several changes in body composition and morphology of women. It is not clear whether the biomechanical changes occurring in this period are due exclusively to body composition and size or to other physiological factors. The purpose was to quantify the morphology and body composition of women throughout pregnancy and in the postpartum period and identify the contribution of these parameters on the lower limb joints kinetic during gait. Eleven women were assessed longitudinally, regarding anthropometric, body composition, and kinetic parameters of gait. Body composition and body dimensions showed a significant increase during pregnancy and a decrease in the postpartum period. In the postpartum period, body composition was similar to the 1st trimester, except for triceps skinfold, total calf area, and body mass index, with higher results than at the beginning of pregnancy. Regression models were developed to predict women's internal loading through anthropometric variables. Four models include variables associated with the amount of fat; four models include variables related to overall body weight; three models include fat-free mass; one model includes the shape of the trunk as a predictor variable. Changes in maternal body composition and morphology largely determine kinetic dynamics of the joints in pregnant women. PMID:27073713</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPhCS.953a2093A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JPhCS.953a2093A"><span>Effective model development of internal auditors in the village financial institution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arsana, I. M. M.; Sugiarta, I. N.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Designing an effective audit system is complex and challenging, and a focus on examining how internal audit drive improvement in three core performance dimensions ethicality, efficiency, and effectiveness in organization is needed. The problem of research is how the desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution? Research of objectives is yielding the desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution. Method Research use data collecting technique interview, observation and enquette. Data analysis, data qualitative before analysed to be turned into quantitative data in the form of scale. Each variable made to become five classificat pursuant to scale of likert. Data analysed descriptively to find supervation level, Structural Equation Model (SEM) to find internal and eksternal factor. So that desain model supervation with descriptive analysis. Result of research desain model and peripheral of supporter of effective supervation Village Credit Institution. The conclusion desain model supported by three sub system: sub system institute yield body supervisor of Village Credit Institution, sub system standardization and working procedure yield standard operating procedure supervisor of Village Credit Institution, sub system education and training yield supervisor professional of Village Credit Institution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JCoAM.233...83P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JCoAM.233...83P"><span>Solvency supervision based on a total balance sheet approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pitselis, Georgios</p> <p>2009-11-01</p> <p>In this paper we investigate the adequacy of the own funds a company requires in order to remain healthy and avoid insolvency. Two methods are applied here; the quantile regression method and the method of mixed effects models. Quantile regression is capable of providing a more complete statistical analysis of the stochastic relationship among random variables than least squares estimation. The estimated mixed effects line can be considered as an internal industry equation (norm), which explains a systematic relation between a dependent variable (such as own funds) with independent variables (e.g. financial characteristics, such as assets, provisions, etc.). The above two methods are implemented with two data sets.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70196673','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70196673"><span>Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Kam, Jonghun; Knutson, Thomas R.; Milly, Paul C. D.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Over regions where snow-melt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snow melt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, a detection/attribution of changes in mid-latitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. In this study, robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability is evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central U.S., where winter-spring streamflows have been coming earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western U.S./southwestern Canada and in extreme northeastern U.S./Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow-free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24979047','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24979047"><span>Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4076191','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4076191"><span>Uniting Statistical and Individual-Based Approaches for Animal Movement Modelling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems. PMID:24979047</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7131K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.7131K"><span>Nowcasting of Low-Visibility Procedure States with Ordered Logistic Regression at Vienna International Airport</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kneringer, Philipp; Dietz, Sebastian; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Low-visibility conditions have a large impact on aviation safety and economic efficiency of airports and airlines. To support decision makers, we develop a statistical probabilistic nowcasting tool for the occurrence of capacity-reducing operations related to low visibility. The probabilities of four different low visibility classes are predicted with an ordered logistic regression model based on time series of meteorological point measurements. Potential predictor variables for the statistical models are visibility, humidity, temperature and wind measurements at several measurement sites. A stepwise variable selection method indicates that visibility and humidity measurements are the most important model inputs. The forecasts are tested with a 30 minute forecast interval up to two hours, which is a sufficient time span for tactical planning at Vienna Airport. The ordered logistic regression models outperform persistence and are competitive with human forecasters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24661748','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24661748"><span>Financial management of a large multisite randomized clinical trial.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sheffet, Alice J; Flaxman, Linda; Tom, MeeLee; Hughes, Susan E; Longbottom, Mary E; Howard, Virginia J; Marler, John R; Brott, Thomas G</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>The Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy versus Stenting Trial (CREST) received five years' funding ($21 112 866) from the National Institutes of Health to compare carotid stenting to surgery for stroke prevention in 2500 randomized participants at 40 sites. Herein we evaluate the change in the CREST budget from a fixed to variable-cost model and recommend strategies for the financial management of large-scale clinical trials. Projections of the original grant's fixed-cost model were compared to the actual costs of the revised variable-cost model. The original grant's fixed-cost budget included salaries, fringe benefits, and other direct and indirect costs. For the variable-cost model, the costs were actual payments to the clinical sites and core centers based upon actual trial enrollment. We compared annual direct and indirect costs and per-patient cost for both the fixed and variable models. Differences between clinical site and core center expenditures were also calculated. Using a variable-cost budget for clinical sites, funding was extended by no-cost extension from five to eight years. Randomizing sites tripled from 34 to 109. Of the 2500 targeted sample size, 138 (5·5%) were randomized during the first five years and 1387 (55·5%) during the no-cost extension. The actual per-patient costs of the variable model were 9% ($13 845) of the projected per-patient costs ($152 992) of the fixed model. Performance-based budgets conserve funding, promote compliance, and allow for additional sites at modest additional cost. Costs of large-scale clinical trials can thus be reduced through effective management without compromising scientific integrity. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World Stroke Organization.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP53D..06P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP53D..06P"><span>Southern Ocean Deep-Convection as a Driver of Centennial-to-Millennial-Scale Climate Variability at Southern High Latitudes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pedro, J. B.; Martin, T.; Steig, E. J.; Jochum, M.; Park, W.; Rasmussen, S.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIM) are centennial-to-millennial scale warming events observed in Antarctic ice core records from the last glacial period and deglaciation. Mounting evidence links AIM events to parallel variations in atmospheric CO2, Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures and Antarctic Bottom Water production. According to the prevailing view, AIM events are forced from the North Atlantic by melt-water discharge from ice sheets suppressing the production of North Atlantic Deep Water and associated northward heat transport in the Atlantic. However observations and model studies increasingly suggest that melt-water fluxes have the wrong timing to be invoked as such a trigger. Here, drawing on results form the Kiel Climate Model, we present an alternative hypothesis in which AIM events are forced via internal oscillations in SO deep-convection. The quasi-periodic timescale of deep-convection events is set by heat (buoyancy) accumulation at SO intermediate depths and stochastic variability in sea ice conditions and freshening at the surface. Massive heat release from the SO convective zone drives Antarctic and large-scale southern hemisphere warming via a two-stage process involving changes in the location of Southern Ocean fronts, in the strength and intensity of the Westerlies and in meridional ocean and atmospheric heat flux anomalies. The potential for AIM events to be driven by internal Southern Ocean processes and the identification of time-lags internal to the southern high latitudes challenges conventional views on the North Atlantic as the pacemaker of millennial-scale climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25991147','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25991147"><span>A system dynamics approach to analyze laboratory test errors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Guo, Shijing; Roudsari, Abdul; Garcez, Artur d'Avila</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Although many researches have been carried out to analyze laboratory test errors during the last decade, it still lacks a systemic view of study, especially to trace errors during test process and evaluate potential interventions. This study implements system dynamics modeling into laboratory errors to trace the laboratory error flows and to simulate the system behaviors while changing internal variable values. The change of the variables may reflect a change in demand or a proposed intervention. A review of literature on laboratory test errors was given and provided as the main data source for the system dynamics model. Three "what if" scenarios were selected for testing the model. System behaviors were observed and compared under different scenarios over a period of time. The results suggest system dynamics modeling has potential effectiveness of helping to understand laboratory errors, observe model behaviours, and provide a risk-free simulation experiments for possible strategies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4707533','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4707533"><span>Spatiotemporal dynamics of random stimuli account for trial-to-trial variability in perceptual decision making</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Park, Hame; Lueckmann, Jan-Matthis; von Kriegstein, Katharina; Bitzer, Sebastian; Kiebel, Stefan J.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Decisions in everyday life are prone to error. Standard models typically assume that errors during perceptual decisions are due to noise. However, it is unclear how noise in the sensory input affects the decision. Here we show that there are experimental tasks for which one can analyse the exact spatio-temporal details of a dynamic sensory noise and better understand variability in human perceptual decisions. Using a new experimental visual tracking task and a novel Bayesian decision making model, we found that the spatio-temporal noise fluctuations in the input of single trials explain a significant part of the observed responses. Our results show that modelling the precise internal representations of human participants helps predict when perceptual decisions go wrong. Furthermore, by modelling precisely the stimuli at the single-trial level, we were able to identify the underlying mechanism of perceptual decision making in more detail than standard models. PMID:26752272</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840054841&hterms=concepts+convergent&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dconcepts%2Bconvergent','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840054841&hterms=concepts+convergent&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dconcepts%2Bconvergent"><span>Static internal performance evaluation of several thrust reversing concepts for 2D-CD nozzles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rowe, R. K.; Duss, D. J.; Leavitt, L. D.</p> <p>1984-01-01</p> <p>Recent performance testing of the two-dimensional convergent-divergent (2D-CD) nozzle has established the concept as a viable alternative to the axisymmetric nozzle for advanced technology aircraft. This type of exhaust system also offers potential integration and performance advantages in the areas of thrust reversing and vectoring over axi-symmetric nozzles. These advantages include the practical integration of thrust reversers which operate not only to reduce landing roll but also operate in-flight for enhanced maneuvering and thrust spoiling. To date there is a very limited data base available from which criteria can be developed for the design and evaluation of this type of thrust reverser system. For this reason, a static scale model test was conducted in which five different thrust reverser designs were evaluated. Each of the five models had varying performance/integration requirements which dictated the five different designs. Some of the parameters investigated in this test included; variable angle external cascade vanes, fixed angle internal cascade vanes, variable position inner doors, external slider doors and internal slider valves. In addition, normal force and yawing moment generation was investigated using the thrust reverser system. Selected results from this test will be presented and discussed in this paper.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10712728','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10712728"><span>Mathematical modeling as a tool to investigate the design and operation of the zymotis packed-bed bioreactor for solid-state fermentation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Mitchell, D A; von Meien, O F</p> <p>2000-04-20</p> <p>Zymotis bioreactors for solid-state fermentation (SSF) are packed-bed bioreactors with internal cooling plates. This design has potential to overcome the problem of heat removal, which is one of the main challenges in SSF. In ordinary packed-bed bioreactors, which lack internal plates, large axial temperature gradients arise, leading to poor microbial growth in the end of the bed near the air outlet. The Zymotis design is suitable for SSF processes in which the substrate bed must be maintained static, but little is known about how to design and operate Zymotis bioreactors. We use a two-dimensional heat transfer model, describing the growth of Aspergillus niger on a starchy substrate, to provide guidelines for the optimum design and operation of Zymotis bioreactors. As for ordinary packed-beds, the superficial velocity of the process air is a key variable. However, the Zymotis design introduces other important variables, namely, the spacing between the internal cooling plates and the temperature of the cooling water. High productivities can be achieved at large scale, but only if small spacings between the cooling plates are used, and if the cooling water temperature is varied during the fermentation in response to bed temperatures. Copyright 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B34A..08L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B34A..08L"><span>Applying ILAMB to data from several generations of the Community Land Model to assess the relative contribution of model improvements and forcing uncertainty to model-data agreement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lawrence, D. M.; Fisher, R.; Koven, C.; Oleson, K. W.; Swenson, S. C.; Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Collier, N.; Mu, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project is a model-data intercomparison and integration project designed to assess and help improve land models. The current package includes assessment of more than 25 land variables across more than 60 global, regional, and site-level (e.g., FLUXNET) datasets. ILAMB employs a broad range of metrics including RMSE, mean error, spatial distributions, interannual variability, and functional relationships. Here, we apply ILAMB for the purpose of assessment of several generations of the Community Land Model (CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5). Encouragingly, CLM5, which is the result of model development over the last several years by more than 50 researchers from 15 different institutions, shows broad improvements across many ILAMB metrics including LAI, GPP, vegetation carbon stocks, and the historical net ecosystem carbon balance among others. We will also show that considerable uncertainty arises from the historical climate forcing data used (GSWP3v1 and CRUNCEPv7). ILAMB score variations due to forcing data can be as large for many variables as that due to model structural differences. Strengths and weaknesses and persistent biases across model generations will also be presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28322240','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28322240"><span>International spinal cord injury endocrine and metabolic extended data set.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bauman, W A; Wecht, J M; Biering-Sørensen, F</p> <p>2017-05-01</p> <p>The objective of this study was to develop the International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Endocrine and Metabolic Extended Data Set (ISCIEMEDS) within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets that would facilitate consistent collection and reporting of endocrine and metabolic findings in the SCI population. This study was conducted in an international setting. The ISCIEMEDS was developed by a working group. The initial ISCIEMEDS was revised based on suggestions from members of the International SCI Data Sets Committee, the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Executive and Scientific Committees, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Board, other interested organizations, societies and individual reviewers. The data set was posted for two months on ISCoS and ASIA websites for comments. Variable names were standardized, and a suggested database structure for the ISCIEMEDS was provided by the Common Data Elements (CDEs) project at the National Institute on Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) of the US National Institute of Health (NIH), and are available at https://commondataelements.ninds.nih.gov/SCI.aspx#tab=Data_Standards. The final ISCIEMEDS contains questions on the endocrine and metabolic conditions related to SCI. Because the information may be collected at any time, the date of data collection is important to determine the time after SCI. ISCIEMEDS includes information on carbohydrate metabolism (6 variables), calcium and bone metabolism (12 variables), thyroid function (9 variables), adrenal function (2 variables), gonadal function (7 variables), pituitary function (6 variables), sympathetic nervous system function (1 variable) and renin-aldosterone axis function (2 variables). The complete instructions for data collection and the data sheet itself are freely available on the website of ISCoS (http://www.iscos.org.uk/international-sci-data-sets).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28164721','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28164721"><span>Human Life History Strategies.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chua, Kristine J; Lukaszewski, Aaron W; Grant, DeMond M; Sng, Oliver</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Human life history (LH) strategies are theoretically regulated by developmental exposure to environmental cues that ancestrally predicted LH-relevant world states (e.g., risk of morbidity-mortality). Recent modeling work has raised the question of whether the association of childhood family factors with adult LH variation arises via (i) direct sampling of external environmental cues during development and/or (ii) calibration of LH strategies to internal somatic condition (i.e., health), which itself reflects exposure to variably favorable environments. The present research tested between these possibilities through three online surveys involving a total of over 26,000 participants. Participants completed questionnaires assessing components of self-reported environmental harshness (i.e., socioeconomic status, family neglect, and neighborhood crime), health status, and various LH-related psychological and behavioral phenotypes (e.g., mating strategies, paranoia, and anxiety), modeled as a unidimensional latent variable. Structural equation models suggested that exposure to harsh ecologies had direct effects on latent LH strategy as well as indirect effects on latent LH strategy mediated via health status. These findings suggest that human LH strategies may be calibrated to both external and internal cues and that such calibrational effects manifest in a wide range of psychological and behavioral phenotypes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981MsT..........8B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981MsT..........8B"><span>Foundations for computer simulation of a low pressure oil flooded single screw air compressor</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bein, T. W.</p> <p>1981-12-01</p> <p>The necessary logic to construct a computer model to predict the performance of an oil flooded, single screw air compressor is developed. The geometric variables and relationships used to describe the general single screw mechanism are developed. The governing equations to describe the processes are developed from their primary relationships. The assumptions used in the development are also defined and justified. The computer model predicts the internal pressure, temperature, and flowrates through the leakage paths throughout the compression cycle of the single screw compressor. The model uses empirical external values as the basis for the internal predictions. The computer values are compared to the empirical values, and conclusions are drawn based on the results. Recommendations are made for future efforts to improve the computer model and to verify some of the conclusions that are drawn.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA609529','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA609529"><span>The Variability of Internal Tides in the Northern South China Sea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-08-27</p> <p>mean N(z) profile from the climatology dataset provided by the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) (Teague et al. 1990) (Fig. 2). Eigenmode...decomposed eigenmodes have similar magnitude. The GDEM profiles for the eigenmode decomposition are used for this analysis because the profiles from...provided by the Generalized Digital Environmental Model ( GDEM ) and the shading represents one standard deviation. b Vertical structures of the first</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005CPL...405..371S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005CPL...405..371S"><span>A new fitting law of rovibrationally inelastic rate constants for rapidly rotating molecules</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Strekalov, M. L.</p> <p>2005-04-01</p> <p>Semiclassical scattering of a particle from a three-dimensional ellipsoid with internal structure is used to model vibration-rotation-translation (VRT) collisional transfer between atoms and diatomic molecules. The result is a very simple analytical expression containing two variable parameters that have a clear physical meaning. Predictions of the model for the Li 2 + Ne system are in reasonably good agreement with experimental results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21595888','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21595888"><span>Validation of the conceptual research utilization scale: an application of the standards for educational and psychological testing in healthcare.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Squires, Janet E; Estabrooks, Carole A; Newburn-Cook, Christine V; Gierl, Mark</p> <p>2011-05-19</p> <p>There is a lack of acceptable, reliable, and valid survey instruments to measure conceptual research utilization (CRU). In this study, we investigated the psychometric properties of a newly developed scale (the CRU Scale). We used the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing as a validation framework to assess four sources of validity evidence: content, response processes, internal structure, and relations to other variables. A panel of nine international research utilization experts performed a formal content validity assessment. To determine response process validity, we conducted a series of one-on-one scale administration sessions with 10 healthcare aides. Internal structure and relations to other variables validity was examined using CRU Scale response data from a sample of 707 healthcare aides working in 30 urban Canadian nursing homes. Principal components analysis and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to determine internal structure. Relations to other variables were examined using: (1) bivariate correlations; (2) change in mean values of CRU with increasing levels of other kinds of research utilization; and (3) multivariate linear regression. Content validity index scores for the five items ranged from 0.55 to 1.00. The principal components analysis predicted a 5-item 1-factor model. This was inconsistent with the findings from the confirmatory factor analysis, which showed best fit for a 4-item 1-factor model. Bivariate associations between CRU and other kinds of research utilization were statistically significant (p < 0.01) for the latent CRU scale score and all five CRU items. The CRU scale score was also shown to be significant predictor of overall research utilization in multivariate linear regression. The CRU scale showed acceptable initial psychometric properties with respect to responses from healthcare aides in nursing homes. Based on our validity, reliability, and acceptability analyses, we recommend using a reduced (four-item) version of the CRU scale to yield sound assessments of CRU by healthcare aides. Refinement to the wording of one item is also needed. Planned future research will include: latent scale scoring, identification of variables that predict and are outcomes to conceptual research use, and longitudinal work to determine CRU Scale sensitivity to change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1198188-investigating-influence-anthropogenic-forcing-observed-mean-extreme-sea-level-pressure-trends-over-mediterranean-region','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1198188-investigating-influence-anthropogenic-forcing-observed-mean-extreme-sea-level-pressure-trends-over-mediterranean-region"><span>Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Barkhordarian, Armineh</p> <p></p> <p>We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1198188-investigating-influence-anthropogenic-forcing-observed-mean-extreme-sea-level-pressure-trends-over-mediterranean-region','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1198188-investigating-influence-anthropogenic-forcing-observed-mean-extreme-sea-level-pressure-trends-over-mediterranean-region"><span>Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Barkhordarian, Armineh</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23406245','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23406245"><span>Beyond the tradition: test of an integrative conceptual model on nurse turnover.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Battistelli, A; Portoghese, I; Galletta, M; Pohl, S</p> <p>2013-03-01</p> <p>This paper aimed to extend research on nurse turnover by developing and testing a theoretical model of turnover intention that includes two emergent key off-the-job constructs, work-family conflict (WFC) and community embeddedness (CE). Nurse turnover is considered one of the most significant issues in health care. There is a considerable body of knowledge that has focused on the study of the on-the-job factors of nurse turnover, showing the important role of job attitudes. Recently, WFC and job embeddedness (JE) have been identified as variables that could help explain levels of nurse turnover. Using structural equation modelling from a cross-sectional survey, the relationships between the variables were explored in a sample of 440 nurses from an Italian public hospital. The questionnaire measures demographic data and psychosocial factors such as job satisfaction, organizational commitment, WFC, CE and turnover intentions. The findings supported the importance of non-work dimensions in turnover models. The results suggest that when studying turnover phenomena in health organizations, the extra-work domains (WFC and JE) can contribute to a decrease in the intention to leave, in addition to the more typically emphasized attitude dimension. © 2012 The Authors. International Nursing Review © 2012 International Council of Nurses.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.8940S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.8940S"><span>Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane; Gupta, Mukund; Bandoro, Justin; Santer, Benjamin; Fu, Qiang; Lin, Pu; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Doug; Mills, Michael</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979-2000) and the early 21st (2000-2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., "mirrored") patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000-2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19970009769&hterms=distribution+time&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Ddistribution%2Btime','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19970009769&hterms=distribution+time&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Ddistribution%2Btime"><span>Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha, Background and Summary of Mathematical Modeling and Failure Density Distributions Pertaining to Maintenance Time Dependent Parameters</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Sepehry-Fard, F.; Coulthard, Maurice H.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>The process of predicting the values of maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF) over time must be one that will not in turn introduce uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. A minor deviation in the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as MTBF over time will have a significant impact on the logistics resources demands, International Space Station availability and maintenance support costs. There are two types of parameters in the logistics and maintenance world: a. Fixed; b. Variable Fixed parameters, such as cost per man hour, are relatively easy to predict and forecast. These parameters normally follow a linear path and they do not change randomly. However, the variable parameters subject to the study in this report such as MTBF do not follow a linear path and they normally fall within the distribution curves which are discussed in this publication. The very challenging task then becomes the utilization of statistical techniques to accurately forecast the future non-linear time dependent variable arisings and events with a high confidence level. This, in turn, shall translate in tremendous cost savings and improved availability all around.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760010058','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19760010058"><span>Computer program for design analysis of radial-inflow turbines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Glassman, A. J.</p> <p>1976-01-01</p> <p>A computer program written in FORTRAN that may be used for the design analysis of radial-inflow turbines was documented. The following information is included: loss model (estimation of losses), the analysis equations, a description of the input and output data, the FORTRAN program listing and list of variables, and sample cases. The input design requirements include the power, mass flow rate, inlet temperature and pressure, and rotational speed. The program output data includes various diameters, efficiencies, temperatures, pressures, velocities, and flow angles for the appropriate calculation stations. The design variables include the stator-exit angle, rotor radius ratios, and rotor-exit tangential velocity distribution. The losses are determined by an internal loss model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950004802','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950004802"><span>Kinetics of phase transformation in glass forming systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ray, Chandra S.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>The objectives of this research were to (1) develop computer models for realistic simulations of nucleation and crystal growth in glasses, which would also have the flexibility to accomodate the different variables related to sample characteristics and experimental conditions, and (2) design and perform nucleation and crystallization experiments using calorimetric measurements, such as differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and differential thermal analysis (DTA) to verify these models. The variables related to sample characteristics mentioned in (1) above include size of the glass particles, nucleating agents, and the relative concentration of the surface and internal nuclei. A change in any of these variables changes the mode of the transformation (crystallization) kinetics. A variation in experimental conditions includes isothermal and nonisothermal DSC/DTA measurements. This research would lead to develop improved, more realistic methods for analysis of the DSC/DTA peak profiles to determine the kinetic parameters for nucleation and crystal growth as well as to assess the relative merits and demerits of the thermoanalytical models presently used to study the phase transformation in glasses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5659801','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5659801"><span>Correlated receptor transport processes buffer single-cell heterogeneity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kallenberger, Stefan M.; Unger, Anne L.; Legewie, Stefan; Lymperopoulos, Konstantinos; Eils, Roland</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Cells typically vary in their response to extracellular ligands. Receptor transport processes modulate ligand-receptor induced signal transduction and impact the variability in cellular responses. Here, we quantitatively characterized cellular variability in erythropoietin receptor (EpoR) trafficking at the single-cell level based on live-cell imaging and mathematical modeling. Using ensembles of single-cell mathematical models reduced parameter uncertainties and showed that rapid EpoR turnover, transport of internalized EpoR back to the plasma membrane, and degradation of Epo-EpoR complexes were essential for receptor trafficking. EpoR trafficking dynamics in adherent H838 lung cancer cells closely resembled the dynamics previously characterized by mathematical modeling in suspension cells, indicating that dynamic properties of the EpoR system are widely conserved. Receptor transport processes differed by one order of magnitude between individual cells. However, the concentration of activated Epo-EpoR complexes was less variable due to the correlated kinetics of opposing transport processes acting as a buffering system. PMID:28945754</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27245779','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27245779"><span>A diagnostic model for chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Johannson, Kerri A; Elicker, Brett M; Vittinghoff, Eric; Assayag, Deborah; de Boer, Kaïssa; Golden, Jeffrey A; Jones, Kirk D; King, Talmadge E; Koth, Laura L; Lee, Joyce S; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; Collard, Harold R</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>The objective of this study was to develop a diagnostic model that allows for a highly specific diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis using clinical and radiological variables alone. Chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and other interstitial lung disease cases were retrospectively identified from a longitudinal database. High-resolution CT scans were blindly scored for radiographic features (eg, ground-glass opacity, mosaic perfusion) as well as the radiologist's diagnostic impression. Candidate models were developed then evaluated using clinical and radiographic variables and assessed by the cross-validated C-statistic. Forty-four chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and eighty other interstitial lung disease cases were identified. Two models were selected based on their statistical performance, clinical applicability and face validity. Key model variables included age, down feather and/or bird exposure, radiographic presence of ground-glass opacity and mosaic perfusion and moderate or high confidence in the radiographic impression of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Models were internally validated with good performance, and cut-off values were established that resulted in high specificity for a diagnosis of chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27091179','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27091179"><span>Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Park, Lawrence P; Chu, Vivian H; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai; Kanj, Souha; Wang, Andrew</p> <p>2016-04-18</p> <p>Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE. Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE-PLUS, 2008-2012, n=1197). The 6-month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE-PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE-PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left-sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6-month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables. Six-month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE. © 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790018943&hterms=econometrics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Deconometrics','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19790018943&hterms=econometrics&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Deconometrics"><span>Airfreight forecasting methodology and results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p></p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23363091','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23363091"><span>Determining probability distribution of coherent integration time near 133 Hz and 1346 km in the Pacific Ocean.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Spiesberger, John L</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>The hypothesis tested is that internal gravity waves limit the coherent integration time of sound at 1346 km in the Pacific ocean at 133 Hz and a pulse resolution of 0.06 s. Six months of continuous transmissions at about 18 min intervals are examined. The source and receiver are mounted on the bottom of the ocean with timing governed by atomic clocks. Measured variability is only due to fluctuations in the ocean. A model for the propagation of sound through fluctuating internal waves is run without any tuning with data. Excellent resemblance is found between the model and data's probability distributions of integration time up to five hours.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21439592-origin-bright-prompt-optical-emission-naked-eye-burst','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/21439592-origin-bright-prompt-optical-emission-naked-eye-burst"><span>Origin of the bright prompt optical emission in the naked eye burst</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Hascoeet, R.; Daigne, F.; Mochkovitch, R.</p> <p></p> <p>The huge optical brightness of GRB 080319B (the 'Naked Eye Burst') makes this event really challenging for models of the prompt GRB emission. In the framework of the internal shock model, we investigate a scenario where the dominant radiative process is synchrotron emission and the high optical flux is due to the dynamical properties of the relativistic outflow : if the initial Lorentz factor distribution in the jet is highly variable, many internal shocks will form within the outflow at various radii. The most violent shocks will produce the main gamma-ray component while the less violent ones will contribute atmore » lower energy, including the optical range.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28152232','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28152232"><span>Do universal media literacy programs have an effect on weight and shape concern by influencing media internalization?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wade, Tracey D; Wilksch, Simon M; Paxton, Susan J; Byrne, Susan M; Austin, S Bryn</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>The current study examined whether media internalization, found to mediate the relationship between selected prevention programs and outcomes, mediated the impact of two universal prevention programs that targeted risk factors for eating disorders and obesity, namely weight concern, and shape concern. Students randomized to a media literacy (Media Smart) program (N = 269, 65% females, mean age 12.97 years) and a healthy lifestyle (Life Smart) program (N = 347, 69% females, mean age 13.07 years) were included in the analyses. There were four waves of data (baseline, end of intervention, 6- and 12-month follow-up). Latent growth curve modeling was used to explore whether group assignment influenced levels of media internalization, and whether that in turn influenced change over time of our two outcome variables. Being randomly allocated to Media Smart as opposed to Life Smart resulted in less growth of both outcome variables through the influence on decreasing levels of media internalization. Findings provided support for the suggestion that media literacy programs exert an impact on outcomes related to eating disorder risk through changes to media internalization. Future research should examine whether these mechanisms of change differ between girls and boys. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27752853','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27752853"><span>The Mediating Roles of Rejection Sensitivity and Proximal Stress in the Association Between Discrimination and Internalizing Symptoms Among Sexual Minority Women.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dyar, Christina; Feinstein, Brian A; Eaton, Nicholas R; London, Bonita</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The negative impact of discrimination on mental health among lesbian, gay, and bisexual populations has been well documented. However, the possible mediating roles of sexual orientation rejection sensitivity and rejection-based proximal stress in the association between discrimination and internalizing symptoms remain unclear. Rejection-based proximal stress is a subset of proximal stressors that are theorized to arise from concerns about and expectations of sexual orientation-based rejection and discrimination. Drawing on minority stress theory, we tested potential mediating effects using indirect effects structural equation modeling in a sample of 300 sexual minority women. Results indicated that the indirect effect of discrimination on internalizing symptoms (a latent variable indicated by depression and anxiety symptoms) through sexual orientation rejection sensitivity and rejection-based proximal stress (a latent variable indicated by preoccupation with stigma, concealment motivation, and difficulty developing a positive sexual identity) was significant. Additionally, the indirect effects of discrimination on rejection-based proximal stress through sexual orientation rejection sensitivity and of sexual orientation rejection sensitivity on internalizing symptoms through rejection-based proximal stress were also significant. These findings indicate that sexual orientation rejection sensitivity plays an important role in contributing to rejection-based proximal stress and internalizing symptoms among sexual minority women.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16942492','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16942492"><span>Peer rejection, aggressive or withdrawn behavior, and psychological maladjustment from ages 5 to 12: an examination of four predictive models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ladd, Gary W</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Findings yielded a comprehensive portrait of the predictive relations among children's aggressive or withdrawn behaviors, peer rejection, and psychological maladjustment across the 5-12 age period. Examination of peer rejection in different variable contexts and across repeated intervals throughout childhood revealed differences in the timing, strength, and consistency of this risk factor as a distinct (additive) predictor of externalizing versus internalizing problems. In conjunction with aggressive behavior, peer rejection proved to be a stronger additive predictor of externalizing problems during early rather than later childhood. Relative to withdrawn behavior, rejection's efficacy as a distinct predictor of internalizing problems was significant early in childhood and increased progressively thereafter. These additive path models fit the data better than did disorder-driven or transactional models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017099','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017099"><span>Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24451688','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24451688"><span>Angular position of the cleat according to torsional parameters of the cyclist's lower limb.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ramos-Ortega, Javier; Domínguez, Gabriel; Castillo, José Manuel; Fernández-Seguín, Lourdes; Munuera, Pedro V</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>The aim of this work was to study the relationship of torsional and rotational parameters of the lower limb with a specific angular position of the cleat to establish whether these variables affect the adjustment of the cleat. Correlational study. Motion analysis laboratory. Thirty-seven male cyclists of high performance. The variables studied of the cyclist's lower limb were hip rotation (internal and external), tibial torsion angle, Q angle, and forefoot adductus angle. The cleat angle was measured through a photograph of the sole and with an Rx of this using the software AutoCAD 2008. The variables were photograph angle (photograph), the variable denominated cleat-tarsus minor angle, and a variable denominated cleat-second metatarsal angle (Rx). Analysis included the intraclass correlation coefficient for the reliability of the measurements, Student's t test performed on the dependent variables to compare side, and the multiple linear regression models were calculated using the software SPSS 15.0 for Windows. The Student's t test performed on the dependent variables to compare side showed no significant differences (P = 0.209 for the photograph angle, P = 0.735 for the cleat-tarsus minor angle, and P = 0.801 for the cleat-second metatarsal angle). Values of R and R2 for the photograph angle model were 0.303 and 0.092 (P = 0.08), the cleat/tarsus minor angle model were 0.683 and 0.466 (P < 0.001), and the cleat/second metatarsal angle model were 0.618 and 0.382, respectively (P < 0.001). The equation given by the model was cleat-tarsus minor angle = 75.094 - (0.521 × forefoot adductus angle) + (0.116 × outward rotation of the hips) + (0.220 × Q angle).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B53A0166C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B53A0166C"><span>Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28493302','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28493302"><span>Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23280647','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23280647"><span>Are external knee load and EMG measures accurate indicators of internal knee contact forces during gait?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Meyer, Andrew J; D'Lima, Darryl D; Besier, Thor F; Lloyd, David G; Colwell, Clifford W; Fregly, Benjamin J</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>Mechanical loading is believed to be a critical factor in the development and treatment of knee osteoarthritis. However, the contact forces to which the knee articular surfaces are subjected during daily activities cannot be measured clinically. Thus, the ability to predict internal knee contact forces accurately using external measures (i.e., external knee loads and muscle electromyographic [EMG] signals) would be clinically valuable. We quantified how well external knee load and EMG measures predict internal knee contact forces during gait. A single subject with a force-measuring tibial prosthesis and post-operative valgus alignment performed four gait patterns (normal, medial thrust, walking pole, and trunk sway) to induce a wide range of external and internal knee joint loads. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess how much of the variability in internal contact forces was accounted for by variability in the external measures. Though the different gait patterns successfully induced significant changes in the external and internal quantities, changes in external measures were generally weak indicators of changes in total, medial, and lateral contact force. Our results suggest that when total contact force may be changing, caution should be exercised when inferring changes in knee contact forces based on observed changes in external knee load and EMG measures. Advances in musculoskeletal modeling methods may be needed for accurate estimation of in vivo knee contact forces. Copyright © 2012 Orthopaedic Research Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3799465','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3799465"><span>Multi-profile Bayesian alignment model for LC-MS data analysis with integration of internal standards</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Tsai, Tsung-Heng; Tadesse, Mahlet G.; Di Poto, Cristina; Pannell, Lewis K.; Mechref, Yehia; Wang, Yue; Ressom, Habtom W.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Motivation: Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) has been widely used for profiling expression levels of biomolecules in various ‘-omic’ studies including proteomics, metabolomics and glycomics. Appropriate LC-MS data preprocessing steps are needed to detect true differences between biological groups. Retention time (RT) alignment, which is required to ensure that ion intensity measurements among multiple LC-MS runs are comparable, is one of the most important yet challenging preprocessing steps. Current alignment approaches estimate RT variability using either single chromatograms or detected peaks, but do not simultaneously take into account the complementary information embedded in the entire LC-MS data. Results: We propose a Bayesian alignment model for LC-MS data analysis. The alignment model provides estimates of the RT variability along with uncertainty measures. The model enables integration of multiple sources of information including internal standards and clustered chromatograms in a mathematically rigorous framework. We apply the model to LC-MS metabolomic, proteomic and glycomic data. The performance of the model is evaluated based on ground-truth data, by measuring correlation of variation, RT difference across runs and peak-matching performance. We demonstrate that Bayesian alignment model improves significantly the RT alignment performance through appropriate integration of relevant information. Availability and implementation: MATLAB code, raw and preprocessed LC-MS data are available at http://omics.georgetown.edu/alignLCMS.html Contact: hwr@georgetown.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24013927</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820026195&hterms=reproduction&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dreproduction','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820026195&hterms=reproduction&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dreproduction"><span>Levels of steering control: Reproduction of steering-wheel movements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Godthelp, H.</p> <p>1982-01-01</p> <p>A schematic description of the steering control process is presented. It is shown that this process can be described in terms of levels of control. Level of control will depend on driver's skill in making use of 'clever' strategies which may be related to knowledge about the path to follow (input) and/or the vehicle under control. This knowledge may be referred to as an internal model of a particular task element. Internal information, as derived from these internal models will probably be used together with proprioceptive feedback. It is hypothesized that the efficiency of the higher levels of control will be dependent on the accuracy of both the internal and proprioceptive information. Based on this research philosophy a series of experiments is carried out. Two primary experiments were done in order to analyse subjects' ability to reproduce steering-wheel positions and movements without visual feedback. Steering-wheel angle amplitude, steering force and movement frequency were involved as independent variables.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8888B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.8888B"><span>Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1896p0020S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1896p0020S"><span>A unified dislocation density-dependent physical-based constitutive model for cold metal forming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schacht, K.; Motaman, A. H.; Prahl, U.; Bleck, W.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Dislocation-density-dependent physical-based constitutive models of metal plasticity while are computationally efficient and history-dependent, can accurately account for varying process parameters such as strain, strain rate and temperature; different loading modes such as continuous deformation, creep and relaxation; microscopic metallurgical processes; and varying chemical composition within an alloy family. Since these models are founded on essential phenomena dominating the deformation, they have a larger range of usability and validity. Also, they are suitable for manufacturing chain simulations since they can efficiently compute the cumulative effect of the various manufacturing processes by following the material state through the entire manufacturing chain and also interpass periods and give a realistic prediction of the material behavior and final product properties. In the physical-based constitutive model of cold metal plasticity introduced in this study, physical processes influencing cold and warm plastic deformation in polycrystalline metals are described using physical/metallurgical internal variables such as dislocation density and effective grain size. The evolution of these internal variables are calculated using adequate equations that describe the physical processes dominating the material behavior during cold plastic deformation. For validation, the model is numerically implemented in general implicit isotropic elasto-viscoplasticity algorithm as a user-defined material subroutine (UMAT) in ABAQUS/Standard and used for finite element simulation of upsetting tests and a complete cold forging cycle of case hardenable MnCr steel family.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020039168','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020039168"><span>Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.3869H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.3869H"><span>Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hall, Richard J.; Jones, Julie M.; Hanna, Edward; Scaife, Adam A.; Erdélyi, Róbert</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26031417','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26031417"><span>Is there a risk profile for the vulnerable junior doctor?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Byrne, D; Buttrey, S; Carberry, C; Lydon, S; O'Connor, P</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Mental ill health is prevalent among doctors, especially those in the early stages of postgraduate training. However, a paucity of research has examined factors predictive of psychological distress in this population. To report the findings from a multi-centre survey of mental health among junior doctors in Ireland, and assess the extent to which moderator variables (e.g., age, academic performance, nationality, etc.) alter the levels of psychological distress caused by internship. An online, anonymous, questionnaire was distributed to all interns in the Republic of Ireland in January 2012. A total of 270 interns responded to the survey (45.0 % response rate), with 48.5 % of the respondents having a score indicative of psychological distress. A regression model found that nationality, academic performance, intern training network, rating of work stressors, home stressors, and work-life balance were associated with differing levels of mental health as measured by the General Health Questionnaire-12. There is a need to consider moderator variables when examining mental health in healthcare populations to avoid drawing overly simplistic conclusions. Interns in Ireland reported particularly high levels of psychological distress compared to other studies of mental health among healthcare populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AIPC..627..267B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AIPC..627..267B"><span>Spinor Geometry and Signal Transmission in Three-Space</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Binz, Ernst; Pods, Sonja; Schempp, Walter</p> <p>2002-09-01</p> <p>For a singularity free gradient field in an open set of an oriented Euclidean space of dimension three we define a natural principal bundle out of an immanent complex line bundle. The elements of both bundles are called internal variables. Several other natural bundles are associated with the principal bundle and, in turn, determine the vector field. Two examples are given and it is shown that for a constant vector field circular polarized waves travelling along a field line can be considered as waves of internal variables. Einstein's equation epsilon = m [middle dot] c2 is derived from the geometry of the principal bundle. On SU(2) a relation between spin representations and Schrodinger representations is established. The link between the spin 1/2-model and the Schrodinger representations yields a connection between a microscopic and a macroscopic viewpoint.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PMagL..95..340Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PMagL..95..340Z"><span>Correlating the internal length in strain gradient plasticity theory with the microstructure of material</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhao, Jianfeng; Zhang, Xu; Konstantinidis, Avraam A.; Kang, Guozheng</p> <p>2015-06-01</p> <p>The internal length is the governing parameter in strain gradient theories which among other things have been used successfully to interpret size effects at the microscale. Physically, the internal length is supposed to be related with the microstructure of the material and evolves during the deformation. Based on Taylor hardening law, we propose a power-law relationship to describe the evolution of the variable internal length with strain. Then, the classical Fleck-Hutchinson strain gradient theory is extended with a strain-dependent internal length, and the generalized Fleck-Hutchinson theory is confirmed here, by comparing our model predictions to recent experimental data on tension and torsion of thin wires with varying diameter and grain size. Our work suggests that the internal length is a configuration-dependent parameter, closely related to dislocation characteristics and grain size, as well as sample geometry when this affects either the underlying microstructure or the ductility of the material.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25070359','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25070359"><span>Emotional variability in mother-adolescent conflict interactions and internalizing problems of mothers and adolescents: dyadic and individual processes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Van der Giessen, Daniëlle; Hollenstein, Tom; Hale, William W; Koot, Hans M; Meeus, Wim; Branje, Susan</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Emotional variability reflects the ability to flexibly switch among a broad range of positive and negative emotions from moment-to-moment during interactions. Emotional variability during mother-adolescent conflict interactions is considered to be important for healthy socio-emotional functioning of mothers and adolescents. The current observational study examined whether dyadic emotional variability, maternal emotional variability, and adolescent emotional variability during conflict interactions in early adolescence predicted mothers' and adolescents' internalizing problems five years later. We used data from 92 mother-adolescent dyads (Mage T1 = 13.05; 65.20 % boys) who were videotaped at T1 while discussing a conflict. Emotional variability was derived from these conflict interactions and it was observed for mother-adolescent dyads, mothers and adolescents separately. Mothers and adolescents also completed questionnaires in early adolescence (T1) and five years later in late adolescence (T6) on mothers' internalizing problems, and adolescents' anxiety and depressive symptoms. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that less dyadic emotional variability in early adolescence predicted relative increases in mothers' internalizing problems, adolescents' depressive symptoms, and adolescents' anxiety symptoms from early to late adolescence. Less maternal emotional variability only predicted relative increases in adolescents' anxiety symptoms over time. The emotional valence (e.g., types of emotions expressed) of conflict interactions did not moderate the results. Taken together, findings highlighted the importance of considering limited emotional variability during conflict interactions in the development, prevention, and treatment of internalizing problems of mothers and adolescents.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28343059','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28343059"><span>Internal cycling, not external loading, decides the nutrient limitation in eutrophic lake: A dynamic model with temporal Bayesian hierarchical inference.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ECSS..151..256B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ECSS..151..256B"><span>Modeling ecosystem processes with variable freshwater inflow to the Caloosahatchee River Estuary, southwest Florida. I. Model development</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Buzzelli, Christopher; Doering, Peter H.; Wan, Yongshan; Sun, Detong; Fugate, David</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Variations in freshwater inflow have ecological consequences for estuaries ranging among eutrophication, flushing and transport, and high and low salinity impacts on biota. Predicting the potential effects of the magnitude and composition of inflow on estuaries over a range of spatial and temporal scales requires reliable mathematical models. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model of ecosystem processes with variable freshwater inflow to the sub-tropical Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) in southwest Florida from 2002 to 2009. The modeling framework combined empirically derived inputs of freshwater and materials from the watershed, daily predictions of salinity, a box model for physical transport, and simulation models of biogeochemical and seagrass dynamics. The CRE was split into 3 segments to estimate advective and dispersive transport of water column constituents. Each segment contained a sub-model to simulate changes in the concentrations of organic nitrogen and phosphorus (ON and OP), ammonium (NH4+), nitrate-nitrite (NOx-), ortho-phosphate (PO4-3), phytoplankton chlorophyll a (CHL), and sediment microalgae (SM). The seaward segment also had sub-models for seagrasses (Halodule wrightii and Thalassia testudinum). The model provided realistic predictions of ON in the upper estuary during wet conditions since organic nitrogen is associated with freshwater inflow and low salinity. Although simulated CHL concentrations were variable, the model proved to be a reliable predictor in time and space. While predicted NOx- concentrations were proportional to freshwater inflow, NH4+ was less predictable due to the complexity of internal cycling during times of reduced freshwater inflow. Overall, the model provided a representation of seagrass biomass changes despite the absence of epiphytes, nutrient effects, or sophisticated translocation in the formulation. The model is being used to investigate the relative importance of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) vs. CHL in submarine light availability throughout the CRE, assess if reductions in nutrient loads are more feasible by controlling freshwater quantity or N and P concentrations, and explore the role of inflow and flushing on the fates of externally and internally derived dissolved and particulate constituents.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172779&hterms=chaos&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dchaos','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172779&hterms=chaos&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dchaos"><span>Detection of "noisy" chaos in a time series</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Chon, K. H.; Kanters, J. K.; Cohen, R. J.; Holstein-Rathlou, N. H.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>Time series from biological system often displays fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". The output from most biological systems is probably the result of both the internal dynamics of the systems, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=lessons+AND+history&pg=7&id=EJ995160','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=lessons+AND+history&pg=7&id=EJ995160"><span>Metacognitive Theory and Levels of History Department Students, Karabuk University</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Candan, Ahmet Sait</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>This paper aims to study the levels of metacognition of students of History Department of Karabuk University and whether they differ according to their variables terms. Screening model was used in this study. Basic information about the concept of metacognition and metacognitive theory from movement of national and international literature were…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=effect&pg=5&id=EJ1162203','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=effect&pg=5&id=EJ1162203"><span>ICT for Children of Immigrants: Indirect and Total Effects via Self-Efficacy on Math Performance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Kim, Sunha</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This study compared the direct, indirect, and total effects of information, communication, and technology (ICT) variables on math achievement for second-generation immigrant, first-generation immigrant, and nonimmigrant students. A path model was used to analyze U.S. nationally representative data from the Program for International Student…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA575869','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA575869"><span>Investigating Lateral Boundary Forcing of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Forecasts for Artillery Mission Support</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>the internal variability, such as the storm track or rainfall pattern (8). Arguments have emerged for the use of small domains in certain cases as...Sensitivity experiments were performed with the WRF-ARW over Meiningen, Germany for two strong wintertime extratropical cyclones. These cases were chosen</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750008884','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19750008884"><span>A Skylab program for the International Hydrological Decade (IHD). [Lake Ontario Basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Polcyn, F. C. (Principal Investigator); Rebel, D. L.</p> <p>1975-01-01</p> <p>The author has identified the following significant results. Demonstration of the procedure for utilizing the model relating red and IR reflectance to surface soil moisture over regions of variable vegetation cover indicates that remote sensing may be able to make direct inputs into determination of this hydrologic parameter.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED024483.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED024483.pdf"><span>A Conceptual Framework for Analysis of Communication in Rural Social Systems.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Axinn, George H.</p> <p></p> <p>This paper describes a five-component system with ten major internal linkages which may be used as a model for studying information flow in any rural agricultural social system. The major components are production, supply, marketing, research, and extension education. In addition, definitions are offered of the crucial variables affecting…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=seasonal+AND+forecast&id=ED174112','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=seasonal+AND+forecast&id=ED174112"><span>The Use of Multiple Regression and Trend Analysis to Understand Enrollment Fluctuations. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Campbell, S. Duke; Greenberg, Barry</p> <p></p> <p>The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=rational+AND+emotive+AND+behavior+AND+therapy&pg=2&id=EJ584047','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=rational+AND+emotive+AND+behavior+AND+therapy&pg=2&id=EJ584047"><span>Promoting Internal Civility: Understanding Our Beliefs About Teaching and Students.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Kuhlenschmidt, Sally L.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>A common variable in uncivil behavior is strong emotional reaction. If distressing emotion in the college classroom could be moderated, inappropriate behaviors might be reduced. One model of rational emotive behavior therapy offers insights into the sources of teachers' and students' emotional responses and the effects on the learning and teaching…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27430564','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27430564"><span>Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value < 0.20 that were used to fit initial prognostic models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not discriminate well. Year 1 and year 2 models showed fair to good predictive validity for PTS. Cranial surgery, although medically necessary, requires ongoing research regarding potential benefits of increased monitoring for signs of epileptogenesis, PTS prophylaxis, and/or rehabilitation/social support. Future studies should externally validate models and determine clinical utility. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28873540','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28873540"><span>Quantification of extra virgin olive oil in dressing and edible oil blends using the representative TMS-4,4'-desmethylsterols gas-chromatographic-normalized fingerprint.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Pérez-Castaño, Estefanía; Sánchez-Viñas, Mercedes; Gázquez-Evangelista, Domingo; Bagur-González, M Gracia</p> <p>2018-01-15</p> <p>This paper describes and discusses the application of trimethylsilyl (TMS)-4,4'-desmethylsterols derivatives chromatographic fingerprints (obtained from an off-line HPLC-GC-FID system) for the quantification of extra virgin olive oil in commercial vinaigrettes, dressing salad and in-house reference materials (i-HRM) using two different Partial Least Square-Regression (PLS-R) multivariate quantification methods. Different data pre-processing strategies were carried out being the whole one: (i) internal normalization; (ii) sampling based on The Nyquist Theorem; (iii) internal correlation optimized shifting, icoshift; (iv) baseline correction (v) mean centering and (vi) selecting zones. The first model corresponds to a matrix of dimensions 'n×911' variables and the second one to a matrix of dimensions 'n×431' variables. It has to be highlighted that the proposed two PLS-R models allow the quantification of extra virgin olive oil in binary blends, foodstuffs, etc., when the provided percentage is greater than 25%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3789306','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3789306"><span>Fluid Structural Analysis of Human Cerebral Aneurysm Using Their Own Wall Mechanical Properties</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Valencia, Alvaro; Burdiles, Patricio; Ignat, Miguel; Mura, Jorge; Rivera, Rodrigo; Sordo, Juan</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD) simulations, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation, and Fluid Structure Interaction (FSI) simulations were carried out in an anatomically realistic model of a saccular cerebral aneurysm with the objective of quantifying the effects of type of simulation on principal fluid and solid mechanics results. Eight CSD simulations, one CFD simulation, and four FSI simulations were made. The results allowed the study of the influence of the type of material elements in the solid, the aneurism's wall thickness, and the type of simulation on the modeling of a human cerebral aneurysm. The simulations use their own wall mechanical properties of the aneurysm. The more complex simulation was the FSI simulation completely coupled with hyperelastic Mooney-Rivlin material, normal internal pressure, and normal variable thickness. The FSI simulation coupled in one direction using hyperelastic Mooney-Rivlin material, normal internal pressure, and normal variable thickness is the one that presents the most similar results with respect to the more complex FSI simulation, requiring one-fourth of the calculation time. PMID:24151523</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23836723','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23836723"><span>Weight bias internalization, core self-evaluation, and health in overweight and obese persons.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hilbert, Anja; Braehler, Elmar; Haeuser, Winfried; Zenger, Markus</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Weight bias has strong associations with psychopathology in overweight and obese individuals. However, self-evaluative processes, as conceptualized in the process model of self-stigma, and implications for other health-related outcomes, remain to be clarified. In a representative general population sample of N = 1158 overweight and obese individuals, the impact of core self-evaluation as a mediator between weight bias internalization and mental and global health outcomes as well as between weight bias internalization and health care utilization, was examined using structural equation modeling. In overweight and obese individuals, greater weight bias internalization predicted lower core self-evaluation, which in turn predicted greater depression and anxiety, lower global health, and greater health care utilization. These mediational associations were largely stable in subsample analyses and after controlling for sociodemographic variables. The results show that overweight and obese individuals with internalized weight bias are at risk for impaired health, especially if they experience low core self-evaluation, making them a group with which to target for interventions to reduce self-stigma. Weight bias internalization did not represent a barrier to health care utilization, but predicted greater health care utilization in association with greater health impairments. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H41D1255F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H41D1255F"><span>Using combined hydrological variables for extracting functional signatures of catchments to better assess the acceptability of model structures in conceptual catchment modelling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fovet, O.; Hrachowitz, M.; RUIZ, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Savenije, H.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics of a system, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. This is likely to make them inadequate to simulate solutes transport. For example, the hysteresis between storage and discharge, which is often observed in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely well reproduced by models. One main reason is that this hysteresis has little weight in the calibration because objective functions are based on time series of individual variables. This reduces the ability of classical calibration/validation procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypothesis associated with hydrological models. Calibrating models on variables derived from the combination of different individual variables (like stream discharge and groundwater levels) is a way to insure that models will be accepted based on their consistency. Here we therefore test the value of this more systems-like approach to test different hypothesis on the behaviour of a small experimental low-land catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys) where a high hysteresis is observed on the stream flow vs. shallow groundwater level relationship. Several conceptual models were applied to this site, and calibrated using objective functions based on metrics of this hysteresis. The tested model structures differed with respect to the storage function in each reservoir, the storage-discharge function in each reservoir, the deep loss expressions (as constant or variable fraction), the number of reservoirs (from 1 to 4) and their organization (parallel, series). The observed hysteretic groundwater level-discharge relationship was not satisfactorily reproduced by most of the tested models except for the most complex ones. Those were thus more consistent, their underlying hypotheses are probably more realistic even though their performance for simulating observed stream flow was decreased. Selecting models based on such systems-like approach is likely to improve their efficiency for environmental application e.g. on solute transport issues. The next step would be to apply the same approach with variables combining hydrological and biogeochemical variables.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28262962','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28262962"><span>BEYOND THE DYAD: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRESCHOOLERS' ATTACHMENT REPRESENTATIONS AND FAMILY TRIADIC INTERACTIONS.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>C, Francisca Pérez; Moessner, Markus; A, María Pía Santelices</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>This study examines the relationship between triadic family interactions and preschoolers' attachment representations, or internal working models (IWMs), from a qualitative and dimensional perspective. Individual, relational, and sociocultural variables were evaluated using two different samples. The results showed that triadic family interactions were linked to preschoolers' attachment security levels in both groups, indicating the reliability of the proposed model. © 2017 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930060245&hterms=molecular+dynamics+simulations&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dmolecular%2Bdynamics%2Bsimulations','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19930060245&hterms=molecular+dynamics+simulations&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dmolecular%2Bdynamics%2Bsimulations"><span>A fast recursive algorithm for molecular dynamics simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jain, A.; Vaidehi, N.; Rodriguez, G.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>The present recursive algorithm for solving molecular systems' dynamical equations of motion employs internal variable models that reduce such simulations' computation time by an order of magnitude, relative to Cartesian models. Extensive use is made of spatial operator methods recently developed for analysis and simulation of the dynamics of multibody systems. A factor-of-450 speedup over the conventional O(N-cubed) algorithm is demonstrated for the case of a polypeptide molecule with 400 residues.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://images.nasa.gov/#/details-ARC-1965-A-35705.html','SCIGOVIMAGE-NASA'); return false;" href="https://images.nasa.gov/#/details-ARC-1965-A-35705.html"><span>ARC-1965-A-35705</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://images.nasa.gov/">NASA Image and Video Library</a></p> <p></p> <p>1965-10-22</p> <p>N-222; 2 x 2ft Transonic Wind Tunnel is a closed return, variable-density tunnel equipped with an adjustable flexible-wall nozzle and a slotted test section. Airflow is produced by a two-stage, axial-flow compressor powered by four, variable-speed induction motors mounted in tandem, delivering a total of 4,000 horsepower. For conventional, steady-state testing models are generally supported on a sting. Internal, strain-gage balances are used for measuring forces and moments. This facility is also used for panel-flutter testing (one test-section wall is replaced with another containing the test specimen.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.C11C0514W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.C11C0514W"><span>Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere: A Canadian Science Contribution to International Polar Year</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Walker, A. E.; Derksen, C.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>The cryosphere (snow, permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, ice caps and glaciers, sea-, river-, and lake ice) represents a significant feature of the Canadian landscape that impacts climate, hydrology, the economy and the daily lives of all Canadians, especially those living in northern communities. Over the past few decades significant changes have been observed in cryospheric elements (e.g. decreases in snow cover, glacier extent, sea ice cover) that have been attributed to a warming climate. This poster presentation will highlight initial scientific results from the approved Canadian International Polar Year project "Variability and Change in the Canadian Cryosphere" that is being led by Environment Canada and involves 33 co- investigators from government, academia and the private sector and links with international collaborators. This project builds on Canadian strengths in remote sensing, climate analysis and modeling with the overall objective to observe and understand the current state of the cryosphere in Canada and determine how fast it is changing and why. Research activities are focused on: (1) developing new satellite-based capabilities to provide information on the current state of the Canadian cryosphere during the IPY period; (2) placing current cryospheric conditions in the context of the historical record to document the magnitude of changes over the 50 years since the last International Polar Year (IGY 1957-1958); (3) characterizing and explaining the observed variability and changes in the context of the coupled climate cryosphere system; and (4) improving the representation of the cryosphere in Canadian land surface and climate models to provide current and future climate simulations of the cryosphere for climate impact studies. The project also includes several outreach activities to engage northern communities in cryospheric monitoring and incorporate traditional knowledge with remotely-sensed information to generate new maps on local river ice and sea ice conditions to assist residents in planning safe navigation routes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412032G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1412032G"><span>Climate variability in China during the last millennium based on reconstructions and simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>García-Bustamante, E.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Werner, J. P.; Jungclaus, J.; Zorita, E.; González-Rouco, J. F.; Fernández-Donado, L.; Hegerl, G.; Ge, Q.; Hao, Z.; Wagner, S.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Multi-decadal to centennial climate variability in China during the last millennium is analysed. We compare the low frequency temperature and precipitation variations from proxy-based reconstructions and palaeo-simulations from climate models. Focusing on the regional responses to the global climate evolution is of high relevance due to the complexity of the interactions between physical mechanisms at different spatio-temporal scales and the potential severity of the derived multiple socio-economic impacts. China stands out as a particularly interesting region, not only due to its complex climatic features, ranging from the semiarid northwestern Tibetan Plateau to the tropical monsoon southeastern climates, but also because of its wealth of proxy data. However, comprehensive assessments of proxy- and model-based information about palaeo-climatic variations in China are, to our knowledge, still lacking. In addition, existing studies depict a general lack of agreement between reconstructions and model simulations with respect to the amplitude and/or occurrence of warmer/colder and wetter/drier periods during the last millennium and the magnitude of the 20th century warming trend. Furthermore, these works are mainly focused on eastern China regions that show a denser proxy data coverage. We investigate how last millennium palaeo-runs compare to independent evidences from an unusual large number of proxy reconstructions over the study area by employing state-of-the-art palaeo-simulations with multi-member ensembles from the CMIP5/PMIP3 project. This shapes an ideal frame for the evaluation of the uncertainties associated to internal and intermodel model variability. Preliminary results indicate that despite the strong regional and seasonal dependencies, temperature reconstructions in China evidence coherent variations among all regions at centennial scale, especially during the last 500 years. The spatial consistency of low frequency temperature changes is an interesting aspect and of relevance for the assessment of forced climatic responses in China. The comparison between reconstructions and simulations from climate models show that, apart from the 20th century warming trend, the variance of the reconstructed mean China temperature lies in the envelope (uncertainty range) spanned by the temperature simulations. The uncertainty arises from the internal (multi-member ensembles) and the inter-model variability. Centennial variations tend to be broadly synchronous in the reconstructions and the simulations. However, the simulations show a delay of the warm period 1000-1300 AD. This warm medieval period both in the simulations and the reconstructions is followed by cooling till 1800 AD. Based on the simulations, the recent warming is not unprecedented and is comparable to the medieval warming. Further steps of this study will address the individual contribution of anthropogenic and natural forcings on climate variability and change during the last millennium in China. We will make use of of models that provide runs including single forcings (fingerprints) for the attribution of climate variations from decadal to multi-centennial time scales. With this aim, we will implement statistical techniques for the detection of optimal signal-to-noise-ratio between external forcings and internal variability of reconstructed temperatures and precipitation. To apply these approaches the uncertainties associated with both reconstructions and simulations will be estimated. The latter will shed some light into the mechanisms behind current climate evolution and will help to constrain uncertainties in the sensitivity of model simulations to increasing CO2 scenarios of future climate change. This work will also contribute to the overall aims of the PAGES 2k initiative in Asia (http://www.pages.unibe.ch/workinggroups/2k-network)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1379852-attribution-julyaugust-heat-event-central-eastern-china-anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-emissions','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1379852-attribution-julyaugust-heat-event-central-eastern-china-anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-emissions"><span>Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.; ...</p> <p>2017-05-19</p> <p>In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379852','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1379852"><span>Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Ma, Shuangmei; Zhou, Tianjun; Stone, Dáithí A.</p> <p></p> <p>In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature wit h that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic factors contributed to this heat event. This extreme warm midsummer was associated with a positive high-pressure anomaly that was closely related to the stochastic behavior of atmospheric circulation. Diagnosis of CMIP5 models and largemore » ensembles of two atmospheric models indicates that human influence has substantially increased the chance of warm mid-summers such as 2013 in CEC, although the exact estimated increase depends on the selection of climate models.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MNRAS.471.4827G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017MNRAS.471.4827G"><span>Neutron star dynamics under time-dependent external torques</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gügercinoǧlu, Erbil; Alpar, M. Ali</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>The two-component model describes neutron star dynamics incorporating the response of the superfluid interior. Conventional solutions and applications involve constant external torques, as appropriate for radio pulsars on dynamical time-scales. We present the general solution of two-component dynamics under arbitrary time-dependent external torques, with internal torques that are linear in the rotation rates, or with the extremely non-linear internal torques due to vortex creep. The two-component model incorporating the response of linear or non-linear internal torques can now be applied not only to radio pulsars but also to magnetars and to neutron stars in binary systems, with strong observed variability and noise in the spin-down or spin-up rates. Our results allow the extraction of the time-dependent external torques from the observed spin-down (or spin-up) time series, \\dot{Ω }(t). Applications are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2351D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2351D"><span>On unravelling mechanism of interplay between cloud and large scale circulation: a grey area in climate science</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>De, S.; Agarwal, N. K.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Sahai, A. K.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The interaction between cloud and large scale circulation is much less explored area in climate science. Unfolding the mechanism of coupling between these two parameters is imperative for improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and to reduce imprecision in climate sensitivity of global climate model. This work has made an effort to explore this mechanism with CFSv2 climate model experiments whose cloud has been modified by changing the critical relative humidity (CRH) profile of model during ISM. Study reveals that the variable CRH in CFSv2 has improved the nonlinear interactions between high and low frequency oscillations in wind field (revealed as internal dynamics of monsoon) and modulates realistically the spatial distribution of interactions over Indian landmass during the contrasting monsoon season compared to the existing CRH profile of CFSv2. The lower tropospheric wind error energy in the variable CRH simulation of CFSv2 appears to be minimum due to the reduced nonlinear convergence of error to the planetary scale range from long and synoptic scales (another facet of internal dynamics) compared to as observed from other CRH experiments in normal and deficient monsoons. Hence, the interplay between cloud and large scale circulation through CRH may be manifested as a change in internal dynamics of ISM revealed from scale interactive quasi-linear and nonlinear kinetic energy exchanges in frequency as well as in wavenumber domain during the monsoon period that eventually modify the internal variance of CFSv2 model. Conversely, the reduced wind bias and proper modulation of spatial distribution of scale interaction between the synoptic and low frequency oscillations improve the eastward and northward extent of water vapour flux over Indian landmass that in turn give feedback to the realistic simulation of cloud condensates attributing improved ISM rainfall in CFSv2.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=229957','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=229957"><span>The test of variables of attention (TOVA): Internal consistency (Q1 vs. Q2 and Q3 vs. Q4) in children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The internal consistency of the Test of Variables of Attention (TOVA) was examined in a cohort of 6- to 12-year-old children (N = 63) strictly diagnosed with ADHD. The internal consistency of errors of omission (OMM), errors of commission (COM), response time (RT), and response time variability (RTV...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29664908','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29664908"><span>A new model of wheezing severity in young children using the validated ISAAC wheezing module: A latent variable approach with validation in independent cohorts.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Brunwasser, Steven M; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Gold, Diane R; Turi, Kedir N; Stone, Cosby A; Datta, Soma; Gern, James E; Hartert, Tina V</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) Wheezing Module is commonly used to characterize pediatric asthma in epidemiological studies, including nearly all airway cohorts participating in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium. However, there is no consensus model for operationalizing wheezing severity with this instrument in explanatory research studies. Severity is typically measured using coarsely-defined categorical variables, reducing power and potentially underestimating etiological associations. More precise measurement approaches could improve testing of etiological theories of wheezing illness. We evaluated a continuous latent variable model of pediatric wheezing severity based on four ISAAC Wheezing Module items. Analyses included subgroups of children from three independent cohorts whose parents reported past wheezing: infants ages 0-2 in the INSPIRE birth cohort study (Cohort 1; n = 657), 6-7-year-old North American children from Phase One of the ISAAC study (Cohort 2; n = 2,765), and 5-6-year-old children in the EHAAS birth cohort study (Cohort 3; n = 102). Models were estimated using structural equation modeling. In all cohorts, covariance patterns implied by the latent variable model were consistent with the observed data, as indicated by non-significant χ2 goodness of fit tests (no evidence of model misspecification). Cohort 1 analyses showed that the latent factor structure was stable across time points and child sexes. In both cohorts 1 and 3, the latent wheezing severity variable was prospectively associated with wheeze-related clinical outcomes, including physician asthma diagnosis, acute corticosteroid use, and wheeze-related outpatient medical visits when adjusting for confounders. We developed an easily applicable continuous latent variable model of pediatric wheezing severity based on items from the well-validated ISAAC Wheezing Module. This model prospectively associates with asthma morbidity, as demonstrated in two ECHO birth cohort studies, and provides a more statistically powerful method of testing etiologic hypotheses of childhood wheezing illness and asthma.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021611','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021611"><span>Robust integration schemes for generalized viscoplasticity with internal-state variables. Part 2: Algorithmic developments and implementation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Li, Wei; Saleeb, Atef F.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>This two-part report is concerned with the development of a general framework for the implicit time-stepping integrators for the flow and evolution equations in generalized viscoplastic models. The primary goal is to present a complete theoretical formulation, and to address in detail the algorithmic and numerical analysis aspects involved in its finite element implementation, as well as to critically assess the numerical performance of the developed schemes in a comprehensive set of test cases. On the theoretical side, the general framework is developed on the basis of the unconditionally-stable, backward-Euler difference scheme as a starting point. Its mathematical structure is of sufficient generality to allow a unified treatment of different classes of viscoplastic models with internal variables. In particular, two specific models of this type, which are representative of the present start-of-art in metal viscoplasticity, are considered in applications reported here; i.e., fully associative (GVIPS) and non-associative (NAV) models. The matrix forms developed for both these models are directly applicable for both initially isotropic and anisotropic materials, in general (three-dimensional) situations as well as subspace applications (i.e., plane stress/strain, axisymmetric, generalized plane stress in shells). On the computational side, issues related to efficiency and robustness are emphasized in developing the (local) interative algorithm. In particular, closed-form expressions for residual vectors and (consistent) material tangent stiffness arrays are given explicitly for both GVIPS and NAV models, with their maximum sizes 'optimized' to depend only on the number of independent stress components (but independent of the number of viscoplastic internal state parameters). Significant robustness of the local iterative solution is provided by complementing the basic Newton-Raphson scheme with a line-search strategy for convergence. In the present second part of the report, we focus on the specific details of the numerical schemes, and associated computer algorithms, for the finite-element implementation of GVIPS and NAV models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021610','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950021610"><span>Robust integration schemes for generalized viscoplasticity with internal-state variables. Part 1: Theoretical developments and applications</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Saleeb, Atef F.; Li, Wei</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>This two-part report is concerned with the development of a general framework for the implicit time-stepping integrators for the flow and evolution equations in generalized viscoplastic models. The primary goal is to present a complete theoretical formulation, and to address in detail the algorithmic and numerical analysis aspects involved in its finite element implementation, as well as to critically assess the numerical performance of the developed schemes in a comprehensive set of test cases. On the theoretical side, the general framework is developed on the basis of the unconditionally-stable, backward-Euler difference scheme as a starting point. Its mathematical structure is of sufficient generality to allow a unified treatment of different classes of viscoplastic models with internal variables. In particular, two specific models of this type, which are representative of the present start-of-art in metal viscoplasticity, are considered in applications reported here; i.e., fully associative (GVIPS) and non-associative (NAV) models. The matrix forms developed for both these models are directly applicable for both initially isotropic and anisotropic materials, in general (three-dimensional) situations as well as subspace applications (i.e., plane stress/strain, axisymmetric, generalized plane stress in shells). On the computational side, issues related to efficiency and robustness are emphasized in developing the (local) interative algorithm. In particular, closed-form expressions for residual vectors and (consistent) material tangent stiffness arrays are given explicitly for both GVIPS and NAV models, with their maximum sizes 'optimized' to depend only on the number of independent stress components (but independent of the number of viscoplastic internal state parameters). Significant robustness of the local iterative solution is provided by complementing the basic Newton-Raphson scheme with a line-search strategy for convergence. In the present first part of the report, we focus on the theoretical developments, and discussions of the results of numerical-performance studies using the integration schemes for GVIPS and NAV models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10072310','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10072310"><span>Variations on an Expectancy-Value Model of Motivation in Science.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>DeBacker; Nelson</p> <p>1999-04-01</p> <p>Relationships among motivational variables from goal theory and expectancy-value theory were investigated in this correlational study of high school students. Self-report surveys of motivation in science were collected during biology classes from 69 males and 80 females. Outcome measures were effort, persistence, and achievement. Gender differences were noted in the pattern of zero-order correlations. Internal motivation variables were related to achievement in males but not females. Regression analyses indicated that the motivation variables explained large proportions of variance in the outcomes. However, the contribution of individual variables differed by gender. Most notable was perceived ability, which contributed significantly to predicting outcome measures for females but not males. Findings suggest that interventions may need to focus on different motivational aspects depending on gender. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23882174','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23882174"><span>A simple solution for model comparison in bold imaging: the special case of reward prediction error and reward outcomes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Erdeniz, Burak; Rohe, Tim; Done, John; Seidler, Rachael D</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Conventional neuroimaging techniques provide information about condition-related changes of the BOLD (blood-oxygen-level dependent) signal, indicating only where and when the underlying cognitive processes occur. Recently, with the help of a new approach called "model-based" functional neuroimaging (fMRI), researchers are able to visualize changes in the internal variables of a time varying learning process, such as the reward prediction error or the predicted reward value of a conditional stimulus. However, despite being extremely beneficial to the imaging community in understanding the neural correlates of decision variables, a model-based approach to brain imaging data is also methodologically challenging due to the multicollinearity problem in statistical analysis. There are multiple sources of multicollinearity in functional neuroimaging including investigations of closely related variables and/or experimental designs that do not account for this. The source of multicollinearity discussed in this paper occurs due to correlation between different subjective variables that are calculated very close in time. Here, we review methodological approaches to analyzing such data by discussing the special case of separating the reward prediction error signal from reward outcomes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995STIN...9526078A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995STIN...9526078A"><span>A fully associative, nonisothermal, nonlinear kinematic, unified viscoplastic model for titanium alloys</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.</p> <p>1995-05-01</p> <p>Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential base multiaxial, nonisothermal unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable (that is, associated with dislocation substructure) and an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of nonlinear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This nonlinear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated), greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths, and in the case of nonisothermal histories, introduces an instantaneous thermal softening mechanism proportional to the rate of change in temperature. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. The specific model proposed is characterized for a representative titanium alloy commonly used as the matrix material in SiC fiber reinforced composites, i.e., TIMETAL 21S. Verification of the proposed model is shown using 'specialized' non-standard isothermal and thermomechanical deformation tests.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950019658','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19950019658"><span>A fully associative, nonisothermal, nonlinear kinematic, unified viscoplastic model for titanium alloys</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.; Castelli, M. G.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>Specific forms for both the Gibb's and complementary dissipation potentials are chosen such that a complete (i.e., fully associative) potential base multiaxial, nonisothermal unified viscoplastic model is obtained. This model possesses one tensorial internal state variable (that is, associated with dislocation substructure) and an evolutionary law that has nonlinear kinematic hardening and both thermal and strain induced recovery mechanisms. A unique aspect of the present model is the inclusion of nonlinear hardening through the use of a compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, in the evolution law for the back stress. This nonlinear tensorial operator is significant in that it allows both the flow and evolutionary laws to be fully associative (and therefore easily integrated), greatly influences the multiaxial response under non-proportional loading paths, and in the case of nonisothermal histories, introduces an instantaneous thermal softening mechanism proportional to the rate of change in temperature. In addition to this nonlinear compliance operator, a new consistent, potential preserving, internal strain unloading criterion has been introduced to prevent abnormalities in the predicted stress-strain curves, which are present with nonlinear hardening formulations, during unloading and reversed loading of the external variables. The specific model proposed is characterized for a representative titanium alloy commonly used as the matrix material in SiC fiber reinforced composites, i.e., TIMETAL 21S. Verification of the proposed model is shown using 'specialized' non-standard isothermal and thermomechanical deformation tests.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ARep...62..299M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ARep...62..299M"><span>A Numerical-Analytical Approach to Modeling the Axial Rotation of the Earth</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Markov, Yu. G.; Perepelkin, V. V.; Rykhlova, L. V.; Filippova, A. S.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>A model for the non-uniform axial rotation of the Earth is studied using a celestial-mechanical approach and numerical simulations. The application of an approximate model containing a small number of parameters to predict variations of the axial rotation velocity of the Earth over short time intervals is justified. This approximate model is obtained by averaging variable parameters that are subject to small variations due to non-stationarity of the perturbing factors. The model is verified and compared with predictions over a long time interval published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23118271','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23118271"><span>Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chan, Emily H; Scales, David A; Brewer, Timothy F; Madoff, Lawrence C; Pollack, Marjorie P; Hoen, Anne G; Choden, Tenzin; Brownstein, John S</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a given year. The dataset included 389 outbreaks of international concern reported in the World Health Organization's Disease Outbreak News from 1996 to 2008. The initial full model included 9 socioeconomic variables related to education, poverty, population health, urbanization, health infrastructure, gender equality, communication, transportation, and democracy, and 1 composite index. Population, latitude, and elevation were included as potential confounders. The initial model was pared down to a final model by a backwards elimination procedure. The dependent and independent variables were lagged by 2 years to allow for forecasting future rates. Among the socioeconomic variables tested, the final model included child measles immunization rate and telephone line density. The Democratic Republic of Congo, China, and Brazil were predicted to be at the highest risk for outbreaks in 2010, and Colombia and Indonesia were predicted to have the highest percentage of increase in their risk compared to their average over 1996-2008. Understanding socioeconomic factors could help improve the understanding of outbreak risk. The inclusion of the measles immunization variable suggests that there is a fundamental basis in ensuring adequate public health capacity. Increased vigilance and expanding public health capacity should be prioritized in the projected high-risk regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17154150','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17154150"><span>Compliance and coping potential of cancer patients treated in liaison-consultation psychiatry.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Grube, Michael</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>To investigate the impact of psychiatric illness, aggression, and other covarying variables on the compliance and coping potential of cancer patients treated in liaison-consultation psychiatry. The study involves 270 cancer patients who were admitted to the oncology ward for diagnosis and treatment. Each patient took part in a psychiatric consultation. We used the Transplant Evaluation Rating Scale (TERS), which provides a system for differentially recording the patient's compliance and coping potential (total score for the TERS items 3-10). Following standardization using the basic psychooncological documentation (PO-BADO), the demographic variables were recorded. We also identified the internal processes which each patient used to deal with the disease using criteria established by Kübler-Ross as well as the phases of cancer experience according to Fawzy. Twenty-three variables were checked for their relationship to the coping and compliance potential. For 13 of these, the Mann-Whitney U-test or Spearmann-Rank correlation calculated exceeded the required Bonferroni-adjusted significance level. The calculation of an ordinal regression model containing these significant single variables showed that the following variables are associated with a lower compliance and coping potential according to their estimate (Beta-value): aggression as the dominant form of dealing internally with cancer (Kübler-Ross), pre-existing DSM IV Axis 1 psychiatric disorders, carcinoma-induced psychiatric disorders, necessity of treatment with neuroleptics and male gender. Acceptance as the dominant form of dealing internally with cancer (Kübler-Ross) is strongly associated with a higher compliance and coping potential. The results show that the compliance and coping potential of oncological in-patients can be comprehensively described by the Transplant Evaluation Rating Scale. The instruments of measurement used in the study are also useful for describing risk factors associated with low levels of compliance and coping potential.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSeis..22..353K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JSeis..22..353K"><span>Nonlinear time series modeling and forecasting the seismic data of the Hindu Kush region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khan, Muhammad Yousaf; Mittnik, Stefan</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>In this study, we extended the application of linear and nonlinear time models in the field of earthquake seismology and examined the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of linear Autoregressive (AR), Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD), Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR), Threshold Autoregressive (TAR), Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR), Additive Autoregressive (AAR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for seismic data of the Hindu Kush region. We also extended the previous studies by using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) models and compared their forecasting accuracy with linear AR model. Unlike previous studies that typically consider the threshold model specifications by using internal threshold variable, we specified these models with external transition variables and compared their out-of-sample forecasting performance with the linear benchmark AR model. The modeling results show that time series models used in the present study are capable of capturing the dynamic structure present in the seismic data. The point forecast results indicate that the AR model generally outperforms the nonlinear models. However, in some cases, threshold models with external threshold variables specification produce more accurate forecasts, indicating that specification of threshold time series models is of crucial importance. For raw seismic data, the ACD model does not show an improved out-of-sample forecasting performance over the linear AR model. The results indicate that the AR model is the best forecasting device to model and forecast the raw seismic data of the Hindu Kush region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1082565','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1082565"><span>Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documentsmore » data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29660871','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29660871"><span>Quantitative models for predicting adsorption of oxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin and sulfamerazine to swine manures with contrasting properties.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cheng, Dengmiao; Feng, Yao; Liu, Yuanwang; Li, Jinpeng; Xue, Jianming; Li, Zhaojun</p> <p>2018-09-01</p> <p>Understanding antibiotic adsorption in livestock manures is crucial to assess the fate and risk of antibiotics in the environment. In this study, three quantitative models developed with swine manure-water distribution coefficients (LgK d ) for oxytetracycline (OTC), ciprofloxacin (CIP) and sulfamerazine (SM1) in swine manures. Physicochemical parameters (n=12) of the swine manure were used as independent variables using partial least-squares (PLSs) analysis. The cumulative cross-validated regression coefficients (Q 2 cum ) values, standard deviations (SDs) and external validation coefficient (Q 2 ext ) ranged from 0.761 to 0.868, 0.027 to 0.064, and 0.743 to 0.827 for the three models; as such, internal and external predictability of the models were strong. The pH, soluble organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON), and Ca were important explanatory variables for the OTC-Model, pH, SOC, and SON for the CIP-model, and pH, total organic nitrogen (TON), and SOC for the SM1-model. The high VIPs (variable importance in the projections) of pH (1.178-1.396), SOC (0.968-1.034), and SON (0.822 and 0.865) established these physicochemical parameters as likely being dominant (associatively) in affecting transport of antibiotics in swine manures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C"><span>Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25145189','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25145189"><span>Determination of the mass transfer limiting step of dye adsorption onto commercial adsorbent by using mathematical models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Marin, Pricila; Borba, Carlos Eduardo; Módenes, Aparecido Nivaldo; Espinoza-Quiñones, Fernando R; de Oliveira, Silvia Priscila Dias; Kroumov, Alexander Dimitrov</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Reactive blue 5G dye removal in a fixed-bed column packed with Dowex Optipore SD-2 adsorbent was modelled. Three mathematical models were tested in order to determine the limiting step of the mass transfer of the dye adsorption process onto the adsorbent. The mass transfer resistance was considered to be a criterion for the determination of the difference between models. The models contained information about the external, internal, or surface adsorption limiting step. In the model development procedure, two hypotheses were applied to describe the internal mass transfer resistance. First, the mass transfer coefficient constant was considered. Second, the mass transfer coefficient was considered as a function of the dye concentration in the adsorbent. The experimental breakthrough curves were obtained for different particle diameters of the adsorbent, flow rates, and feed dye concentrations in order to evaluate the predictive power of the models. The values of the mass transfer parameters of the mathematical models were estimated by using the downhill simplex optimization method. The results showed that the model that considered internal resistance with a variable mass transfer coefficient was more flexible than the other ones and this model described the dynamics of the adsorption process of the dye in the fixed-bed column better. Hence, this model can be used for optimization and column design purposes for the investigated systems and similar ones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4466746','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4466746"><span>Classification images reveal decision variables and strategies in forced choice tasks</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Pritchett, Lisa M.; Murray, Richard F.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Despite decades of research, there is still uncertainty about how people make simple decisions about perceptual stimuli. Most theories assume that perceptual decisions are based on decision variables, which are internal variables that encode task-relevant information. However, decision variables are usually considered to be theoretical constructs that cannot be measured directly, and this often makes it difficult to test theories of perceptual decision making. Here we show how to measure decision variables on individual trials, and we use these measurements to test theories of perceptual decision making more directly than has previously been possible. We measure classification images, which are estimates of templates that observers use to extract information from stimuli. We then calculate the dot product of these classification images with the stimuli to estimate observers' decision variables. Finally, we reconstruct each observer's “decision space,” a map that shows the probability of the observer’s responses for all values of the decision variables. We use this method to examine decision strategies in two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) tasks, for which there are several competing models. In one experiment, the resulting decision spaces support the difference model, a classic theory of 2AFC decisions. In a second experiment, we find unexpected decision spaces that are not predicted by standard models of 2AFC decisions, and that suggest intrinsic uncertainty or soft thresholding. These experiments give new evidence regarding observers’ strategies in 2AFC tasks, and they show how measuring decision variables can answer long-standing questions about perceptual decision making. PMID:26015584</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19571203','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19571203"><span>Gravity dependence of subjective visual vertical variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tarnutzer, A A; Bockisch, C; Straumann, D; Olasagasti, I</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>The brain integrates sensory input from the otolith organs, the semicircular canals, and the somatosensory and visual systems to determine self-orientation relative to gravity. Only the otoliths directly sense the gravito-inertial force vector and therefore provide the major input for perceiving static head-roll relative to gravity, as measured by the subjective visual vertical (SVV). Intraindividual SVV variability increases with head roll, which suggests that the effectiveness of the otolith signal is roll-angle dependent. We asked whether SVV variability reflects the spatial distribution of the otolithic sensors and the otolith-derived acceleration estimate. Subjects were placed in different roll orientations (0-360 degrees, 15 degrees steps) and asked to align an arrow with perceived vertical. Variability was minimal in upright, increased with head-roll peaking around 120-135 degrees, and decreased to intermediate values at 180 degrees. Otolith-dependent variability was modeled by taking into consideration the nonuniform distribution of the otolith afferents and their nonlinear firing rate. The otolith-derived estimate was combined with an internal bias shifting the estimated gravity-vector toward the body-longitudinal. Assuming an efficient otolith estimator at all roll angles, peak variability of the model matched our data; however, modeled variability in upside-down and upright positions was very similar, which is at odds with our findings. By decreasing the effectiveness of the otolith estimator with increasing roll, simulated variability matched our experimental findings better. We suggest that modulations of SVV precision in the roll plane are related to the properties of the otolith sensors and to central computational mechanisms that are not optimally tuned for roll-angles distant from upright.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1238368','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1238368"><span>A systematic multiscale modeling and experimental approach to protect grain boundaries in magnesium alloys from corrosion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Horstemeyer, Mark R.; Chaudhuri, Santanu</p> <p>2015-09-30</p> <p>A multiscale modeling Internal State Variable (ISV) constitutive model was developed that captures the fundamental structure-property relationships. The macroscale ISV model used lower length scale simulations (Butler-Volmer and Electronics Structures results) in order to inform the ISVs at the macroscale. The chemomechanical ISV model was calibrated and validated from experiments with magnesium (Mg) alloys that were investigated under corrosive environments coupled with experimental electrochemical studies. Because the ISV chemomechanical model is physically based, it can be used for other material systems to predict corrosion behavior. As such, others can use the chemomechanical model for analyzing corrosion effects on their designs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29464804','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29464804"><span>Policy-relevant behaviours predict heavier drinking and mediate the relationship with age, gender and education status: Analysis from the International Alcohol Control study.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Casswell, Sally; Huckle, Taisia; Wall, Martin; Parker, Karl; Chaiyasong, Surasak; Parry, Charles D H; Viet Cuong, Pham; Gray-Phillip, Gaile; Piazza, Marina</p> <p>2018-02-21</p> <p>To investigate behaviours related to four alcohol policy variables (policy-relevant behaviours) and demographic variables in relation to typical quantities of alcohol consumed on-premise in six International Alcohol Control study countries. General population surveys with drinkers using a comparable survey instrument and data analysed using path analysis in an overall model and for each country. typical quantities per occasion consumed on-premise; gender, age; years of education, prices paid, time of purchase, time to access alcohol and liking for alcohol advertisements. In the overall model younger people, males and those with fewer years of education consumed larger typical quantities. Overall lower prices paid, later time of purchase and liking for alcohol ads predicted consuming larger typical quantities; this was found in the high-income countries, less consistently in the high-middle-income countries and not in the low middle-income country. Three policy-relevant behaviours (prices paid, time of purchase, liking for alcohol ads) mediated the relationships between age, gender, education and consumption in high-income countries. International Alcohol Control survey data showed a relationship between policy-relevant behaviours and typical quantities consumed and support the likely effect of policy change (trading hours, price and restrictions on marketing) on heavier drinking. The path analysis also revealed policy-relevant behaviours were significant mediating variables between the effect of age, gender and educational status on consumption. However, this relationship is clearest in high-income countries. Further research is required to understand better how circumstances in low-middle-income countries impact effects of policies. © 2018 The Authors Drug and Alcohol Review published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016CliPa..12.2107C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016CliPa..12.2107C"><span>The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Camenisch, Chantal; Keller, Kathrin M.; Salvisberg, Melanie; Amann, Benjamin; Bauch, Martin; Blumer, Sandro; Brázdil, Rudolf; Brönnimann, Stefan; Büntgen, Ulf; Campbell, Bruce M. S.; Fernández-Donado, Laura; Fleitmann, Dominik; Glaser, Rüdiger; González-Rouco, Fidel; Grosjean, Martin; Hoffmann, Richard C.; Huhtamaa, Heli; Joos, Fortunat; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Lehner, Flavio; Luterbacher, Jürg; Maughan, Nicolas; Neukom, Raphael; Novy, Theresa; Pribyl, Kathleen; Raible, Christoph C.; Riemann, Dirk; Schuh, Maximilian; Slavin, Philip; Werner, Johannes P.; Wetter, Oliver</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe.Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JEPT...91....1S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JEPT...91....1S"><span>The Theory of Thermodynamic Systems with Internal Variables of State: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Compliance with the Second Law of Thermodynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shnip, A. I.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Based on the entropy-free thermodynamic approach, a generalized theory of thermodynamic systems with internal variables of state is being developed. For the case of nonlinear thermodynamic systems with internal variables of state and linear relaxation, the necessary and sufficient conditions have been proved for fulfillment of the second law of thermodynamics in entropy-free formulation which, according to the basic theorem of the theory, are also necessary and sufficient for the existence of a thermodynamic potential. Moreover, relations of correspondence between thermodynamic systems with memory and systems with internal variables of state have been established, as well as some useful relations in the spaces of states of both types of systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AdAtS..35..757W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018AdAtS..35..757W"><span>Climate Change of 4°C GlobalWarming above Pre-industrial Levels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Xiaoxin; Jiang, Dabang; Lang, Xianmei</p> <p>2018-07-01</p> <p>Using a set of numerical experiments from 39 CMIP5 climate models, we project the emergence time for 4°C global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels and associated climate changes under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Results show that, according to the 39 models, the median year in which 4°C global warming will occur is 2084. Based on the median results of models that project a 4°C global warming by 2100, land areas will generally exhibit stronger warming than the oceans annually and seasonally, and the strongest enhancement occurs in the Arctic, with the exception of the summer season. Change signals for temperature go outside its natural internal variabilities globally, and the signal-tonoise ratio averages 9.6 for the annual mean and ranges from 6.3 to 7.2 for the seasonal mean over the globe, with the greatest values appearing at low latitudes because of low noise. Decreased precipitation generally occurs in the subtropics, whilst increased precipitation mainly appears at high latitudes. The precipitation changes in most of the high latitudes are greater than the background variability, and the global mean signal-to-noise ratio is 0.5 and ranges from 0.2 to 0.4 for the annual and seasonal means, respectively. Attention should be paid to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, in which case temperature and precipitation will experience a far more moderate change than the natural internal variability. Large inter-model disagreement appears at high latitudes for temperature changes and at mid and low latitudes for precipitation changes. Overall, the intermodel consistency is better for temperature than for precipitation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19814949','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19814949"><span>Easy and low-cost identification of metabolic syndrome in patients treated with second-generation antipsychotics: artificial neural network and logistic regression models.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lin, Chao-Cheng; Bai, Ya-Mei; Chen, Jen-Yeu; Hwang, Tzung-Jeng; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Chiu, Hung-Wen; Li, Yu-Chuan</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is an important side effect of second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs). However, many SGA-treated patients with MetS remain undetected. In this study, we trained and validated artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple logistic regression models without biochemical parameters to rapidly identify MetS in patients with SGA treatment. A total of 383 patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (DSM-IV criteria) with SGA treatment for more than 6 months were investigated to determine whether they met the MetS criteria according to the International Diabetes Federation. The data for these patients were collected between March 2005 and September 2005. The input variables of ANN and logistic regression were limited to demographic and anthropometric data only. All models were trained by randomly selecting two-thirds of the patient data and were internally validated with the remaining one-third of the data. The models were then externally validated with data from 69 patients from another hospital, collected between March 2008 and June 2008. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to measure the performance of all models. Both the final ANN and logistic regression models had high accuracy (88.3% vs 83.6%), sensitivity (93.1% vs 86.2%), and specificity (86.9% vs 83.8%) to identify MetS in the internal validation set. The mean +/- SD AUC was high for both the ANN and logistic regression models (0.934 +/- 0.033 vs 0.922 +/- 0.035, P = .63). During external validation, high AUC was still obtained for both models. Waist circumference and diastolic blood pressure were the common variables that were left in the final ANN and logistic regression models. Our study developed accurate ANN and logistic regression models to detect MetS in patients with SGA treatment. The models are likely to provide a noninvasive tool for large-scale screening of MetS in this group of patients. (c) 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC52B..07B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC52B..07B"><span>Detection of non-natural springtime precipitation change over northern South America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barkhordarian, A.; Behrangi, A.; Mechoso, C. R.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Here we determine whether the climate over South America has changed as a result of human activity since the beginning of the industrial revolution. To this end, we assess whether the observed changes are likely to have been due to natural (internal) variability alone, and if not, whether they are consistent with what models simulate as response to anthropogenic and natural forcing. Internal variability is estimated using 12,000-year control runs derived from CMIP5 archive. Results indicate that, in the past decades, trends in springtime (ASO, August-October) precipitation over South America have a magnitude that is beyond the estimated range due to natural (internal) variability or natural forcings alone. Evidence for the presence of an external driving factor is clearly detectable in the observed precipitation record (with less than 5% risk of error). The regression results illustrate the concerted emergence of an anthropogenic signal consistent with greenhouse gas (GHG) in observed decreasing 30-year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. In addition, the fingerprint of land-use-change signal is detectable in the observed precipitation decrease over 1983-2012. While the influence of GHG signal is detectable in precipitation, an observed decrease up to 10 mm/decade drying over the Amazon region, is much larger than the changes simulated by global and regional climate models as response to GHG forcing. We further show that the projected increasing trend of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an indicator of background aridity, by the climate models with GHG forcing is much smaller than that observed over the Amazon rainforest. This may imply that models may underestimate the resulting reductions in forest CO2 uptake that could function as a positive feedback to rising temperature and reducing precipitation. Taking the ensemble of 23 IPCC models as a crude metric of probabilities, we further show that with 19 out of 24 models the effect of GS signal (greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosols) based on RCP4.5 scenario has already a detectable influence in the observed drying over Amazon region. This may imply that the observed drier air conditions plus higher surface air temperature during austral spring serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172911&hterms=discrimination&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Ddiscrimination','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040172911&hterms=discrimination&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Ddiscrimination"><span>Image discrimination models predict detection in fixed but not random noise</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Ahumada, A. J. Jr; Beard, B. L.; Watson, A. B. (Principal Investigator)</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>By means of a two-interval forced-choice procedure, contrast detection thresholds for an aircraft positioned on a simulated airport runway scene were measured with fixed and random white-noise masks. The term fixed noise refers to a constant, or unchanging, noise pattern for each stimulus presentation. The random noise was either the same or different in the two intervals. Contrary to simple image discrimination model predictions, the same random noise condition produced greater masking than the fixed noise. This suggests that observers seem unable to hold a new noisy image for comparison. Also, performance appeared limited by internal process variability rather than by external noise variability, since similar masking was obtained for both random noise types.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25446777','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25446777"><span>Developing and validating a measure of community capacity: Why volunteers make the best neighbours.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lovell, Sarah A; Gray, Andrew R; Boucher, Sara E</p> <p>2015-05-01</p> <p>Social support and community connectedness are key determinants of both mental and physical wellbeing. While social capital has been used to indicate the instrumental value of these social relationships, its broad and often competing definitions have hindered practical applications of the concept. Within the health promotion field, the related concept of community capacity, the ability of a group to identify and act on problems, has gained prominence (Labonte and Laverack, 2001). The goal of this study was to develop and validate a scale measuring community capacity including exploring its associations with socio-demographic and civic behaviour variables among the residents of four small (populations 1500-2000) high-deprivation towns in southern New Zealand. The full (41-item) scale was found to have strong internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.89) but a process of reducing the scale resulted in a shorter 26-item instrument with similar internal consistency (alpha 0.88). Subscales of the reduced instrument displayed at least marginally acceptable levels of internal consistency (0.62-0.77). Using linear regression models, differences in community capacity scores were found for selected criterion, namely time spent living in the location, local voting, and volunteering behaviour, although the first of these was no longer statistically significant in an adjusted model with potential confounders including age, sex, ethnicity, education, marital status, employment, household income, and religious beliefs. This provides support for the scale's concurrent validity. Differences were present between the four towns in unadjusted models and remained statistically significant in adjusted models (including variables mentioned above) suggesting, crucially, that even when such factors are accounted for, perceptions of one's community may still depend on place. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......118M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT.......118M"><span>Development of a Feedstock-to-Product Chain Model for Densified Biomass Pellets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McPherrin, Daniel</p> <p></p> <p>The Q’Pellet is a spherical, torrefied biomass pellet currently under development. It aims to improve on the shortcomings of commercially available cylindrical white and torrefied pellets. A spreadsheet-based model was developed to allow for techno-economic analysis and simplified life cycle analysis of Q’Pellets, torrefied pellets and white pellets. A case study was developed to compare the production of white, torrefied and Q’Pellet production based on their internal rates of return and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions. The case study was based on a commercial scale plant built in Williams Lake BC with product delivery in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Q’Pellets had the highest modelled internal rate of return, at 12.7%, with white pellets at 11.1% and torrefied pellets at 8.0%. The simplified life cycle analysis showed that Q’Pellets had the lowest life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of the three products, 6.96 kgCO2eq/GJ, compared to 21.50 kgCO2eq/GJ for white pellets and 10.08 kgCO2eq/GJ for torrefied pellets. At these levels of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, white pellets are above the maximum life cycle emissions to be considered sustainable under EU regulations. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the model by modifying input variables, and showed that white pellets are more sensitive to uncontrollable market variables, especially pellet sale prices, raw biomass prices and transportation costs. Monte Carlo analysis was also performed, which showed that white pellet production is less predictable and more likely to lead to a negative internal rate of return compared to Q’Pellet production.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016RSPSA.47250874A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016RSPSA.47250874A"><span>Unifying dynamical and structural stability of equilibria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arnoldi, Jean-François; Haegeman, Bart</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>We exhibit a fundamental relationship between measures of dynamical and structural stability of linear dynamical systems-e.g. linearized models in the vicinity of equilibria. We show that dynamical stability, quantified via the response to external perturbations (i.e. perturbation of dynamical variables), coincides with the minimal internal perturbation (i.e. perturbations of interactions between variables) able to render the system unstable. First, by reformulating a result of control theory, we explain that harmonic external perturbations reflect the spectral sensitivity of the Jacobian matrix at the equilibrium, with respect to constant changes of its coefficients. However, for this equivalence to hold, imaginary changes of the Jacobian's coefficients have to be allowed. The connection with dynamical stability is thus lost for real dynamical systems. We show that this issue can be avoided, thus recovering the fundamental link between dynamical and structural stability, by considering stochastic noise as external and internal perturbations. More precisely, we demonstrate that a linear system's response to white-noise perturbations directly reflects the intensity of internal white-noise disturbance that it can accommodate before becoming stochastically unstable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/291005','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/291005"><span>Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.</p> <p>1998-04-01</p> <p>The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library ofmore » uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27713656','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27713656"><span>Unifying dynamical and structural stability of equilibria.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Arnoldi, Jean-François; Haegeman, Bart</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>We exhibit a fundamental relationship between measures of dynamical and structural stability of linear dynamical systems-e.g. linearized models in the vicinity of equilibria. We show that dynamical stability, quantified via the response to external perturbations (i.e. perturbation of dynamical variables), coincides with the minimal internal perturbation (i.e. perturbations of interactions between variables) able to render the system unstable. First, by reformulating a result of control theory, we explain that harmonic external perturbations reflect the spectral sensitivity of the Jacobian matrix at the equilibrium, with respect to constant changes of its coefficients. However, for this equivalence to hold, imaginary changes of the Jacobian's coefficients have to be allowed. The connection with dynamical stability is thus lost for real dynamical systems. We show that this issue can be avoided, thus recovering the fundamental link between dynamical and structural stability, by considering stochastic noise as external and internal perturbations. More precisely, we demonstrate that a linear system's response to white-noise perturbations directly reflects the intensity of internal white-noise disturbance that it can accommodate before becoming stochastically unstable.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/655522-product-layer-development-during-sulfation-sulfidation-uncalcined-limestone-particles-elevated-pressures','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/655522-product-layer-development-during-sulfation-sulfidation-uncalcined-limestone-particles-elevated-pressures"><span>Product layer development during sulfation and sulfidation of uncalcined limestone particles at elevated pressures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Zevenhoven, C.A.P.; Yrjas, K.P.; Hupa, M.M.</p> <p>1998-07-01</p> <p>Fluidized bed combustion or gasification allows for in-bed sulfur capture with a calcium-based sorbent such as limestone or dolomite. Sorbent particle size, porosity, internal surface, and their variation during conversion have great influence on the conversion of the sorbent. The uptake of SO{sub 2} and H{sub 2}S by five physically different limestones is discussed, for typical pressurized fluidized bed combustor or gasifier conditions: 850/950 C, 15/20 bar. Tests were done in a pressurized thermogravimetric apparatus (P-TGA), the size of the limestone particles was 250--300 {micro}m. It is stressed that the limestones remain uncalcined. A changing internal structure (CIS) model ismore » presented in which reaction kinetics and product layer diffusion are related to the intraparticle surface of reaction, instead of the outer particle surface as in unreacted shrinking core (USC)-type models. The random pore model was used for describing the changing internal pore and reaction surfaces. Rate parameters were extracted for all five limestones using the CIS model and a USC model with variable effective diffusivity. Differences in the sulfur capture performance of the limestones were evaluated. Plots of the CaSO{sub 4} or CaS product layer thickness as a function of conversion are given, and the relative importance of limestone porosity and internal surface is discussed.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040016048&hterms=ensemble&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Densemble','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040016048&hterms=ensemble&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Densemble"><span>A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41C2289V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41C2289V"><span>Evaluating the ClimEx Single Model Large Ensemble in Comparison with EURO-CORDEX Results of Seasonal Means and Extreme Precipitation Indicators</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>von Trentini, F.; Schmid, F. J.; Braun, M.; Brisette, F.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Martel, J. L.; Willkofer, F.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Meteorological extreme events seem to become more frequent in the present and future, and a seperation of natural climate variability and a clear climate change effect on these extreme events gains more and more interest. Since there is only one realisation of historical events, natural variability in terms of very long timeseries for a robust statistical analysis is not possible with observation data. A new single model large ensemble (SMLE), developed for the ClimEx project (Climate change and hydrological extreme events - risks and perspectives for water management in Bavaria and Québec) is supposed to overcome this lack of data by downscaling 50 members of the CanESM2 (RCP 8.5) with the Canadian CRCM5 regional model (using the EURO-CORDEX grid specifications) for timeseries of 1950-2099 each, resulting in 7500 years of simulated climate. This allows for a better probabilistic analysis of rare and extreme events than any preceding dataset. Besides seasonal sums, several extreme indicators like R95pTOT, RX5day and others are calculated for the ClimEx ensemble and several EURO-CORDEX runs. This enables us to investigate the interaction between natural variability (as it appears in the CanESM2-CRCM5 members) and a climate change signal of those members for past, present and future conditions. Adding the EURO-CORDEX results to this, we can also assess the role of internal model variability (or natural variability) in climate change simulations. A first comparison shows similar magnitudes of variability of climate change signals between the ClimEx large ensemble and the CORDEX runs for some indicators, while for most indicators the spread of the SMLE is smaller than the spread of different CORDEX models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990009996','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19990009996"><span>Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Chang, Y.; Schubert, S.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T51I..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T51I..08S"><span>Thermal Evolution of Diapirs with Complex Mantle Wedge Flow</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sylvia, R. T.; Kincaid, C.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Subduction of oceanic lithosphere drives heat and mass exchange between Earth's interior and surface. One proposed transport mechanism for thermally and chemically distinct material through the wedge is the diapir model. The dominant driver of flow in the upper mantle is a mode of forced convection responding to motion of a tabular slab. A set of 4D laboratory experiments was conducted exploring the relationship between buoyancy flux and subduction parameters and subsequent effects on diapir transport. Variable subduction styles tested include downdip and rollback motion, slab gaps, slab steepening and backarc extension. The mantle is modeled using viscous glucose syrup with an Arrhenius type temperature dependent viscosity. Diapirs representing homogeneous mechanically mixed melange layer are introduced as buoyant fluid injected at multiple point sources situated along the surface of the sinking slab. Laboratory data is collected using high definition time-lapse photography and quantified using image velocimetry techniques. Here we present results from numerical simulation of the thermal evolution of spherical mantle wedge diapirs using 2D axisymmetric advection-diffusion model with internal diapir flow described by an analytic potential flow solution. A suite of wedge temperature profiles are used as thermal forcing on diapirs traversing the wedge along experimentally observed 4D ascent pathways. Scaling arguments suggest that for systems with Péclet number on the order of 15 advective heat transport is expected to dominate over diffusive heat transport, but the range of observed P-T-t paths and vigorous internal flow complicate this assumption. Interactions between modes of free (diapiric) and forced (wedge) convection lead to complex spatio-temporal variability in slab-to-arc connectivity patterns. Rollback induced toroidal flow, along trench changes in dip, convergence rate and backarc extension all produce a significant ( 500 km) trench-parallel transport component. Combined with diapir-diapir interactions these factors produce a spectrum of transit times and pathlengths, ranging from much shorter to much longer than those from simple 2D model estimates. Results highlight the broad range of expected internal temperature distributions derived from variable transit paths.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Pretest+AND+posttest+AND+control+AND+group+AND+design&pg=5&id=EJ1051859','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Pretest+AND+posttest+AND+control+AND+group+AND+design&pg=5&id=EJ1051859"><span>Internal Validity: A Must in Research Designs</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Cahit, Kaya</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In experimental research, internal validity refers to what extent researchers can conclude that changes in dependent variable (i.e. outcome) are caused by manipulations in independent variable. The causal inference permits researchers to meaningfully interpret research results. This article discusses (a) internal validity threats in social and…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA578850','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA578850"><span>Soil Models and Vehicle System Dynamics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-05-07</p> <p>of the deviatoric stress , ’p is the effective mean stress , the pre-consolidation stress ’cp acts as a internal...and matric suction as stress state variables allows modeling independently the effects of a change in the skeleton stress and of a change in suction...in the plane of effective mean- stress p’ and deviatoric stress q with 1 2 3’ 3p and using</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24637065','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24637065"><span>Developing and testing a measurement tool for assessing predictors of breakfast consumption based on a health promotion model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dehdari, Tahereh; Rahimi, Tahereh; Aryaeian, Naheed; Gohari, Mahmood Reza; Esfeh, Jabiz Modaresi</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>To develop an instrument for measuring Health Promotion Model constructs in terms of breakfast consumption, and to identify the constructs that were predictors of breakfast consumption among Iranian female students. A questionnaire on Health Promotion Model variables was developed and potential predictors of breakfast consumption were assessed using this tool. One hundred female students, mean age 13 years (SD ± 1.2 years). Two middle schools from moderate-income areas in Qom, Iran. Health Promotion Model variables were assessed using a 58-item questionnaire. Breakfast consumption was also measured. Internal consistency (Cronbach alpha), content validity index, content validity ratio, multiple linear regression using stepwise method, and Pearson correlation. Content validity index and content validity ratio scores of the developed scale items were 0.89 and 0.93, respectively. Internal consistencies (range, .74-.91) of subscales were acceptable. Prior related behaviors, perceived barriers, self-efficacy, and competing demand and preferences were 4 constructs that could predict 63% variance of breakfast frequency per week among subjects. The instrument developed in this study may be a useful tool for researchers to explore factors affecting breakfast consumption among students. Students with a high level of self-efficacy, more prior related behavior, fewer perceived barriers, and fewer competing demands were most likely to regularly consume breakfast. Copyright © 2014 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42..831D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42..831D"><span>Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Davis, Kristen A.; Wong, George T. F.</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Internal waves (IWs) generated in the Luzon Strait propagate into the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), enhancing biological productivity and affecting coral reefs by modulating nutrient concentrations and temperature. Here we use a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system to reconstruct water column stratification in the Luzon Strait as a proxy for IW activity in the NSCS and diagnose mechanisms for its variability. Interannual variability of stratification is driven by intrusions of the Kuroshio Current into the Luzon Strait and freshwater fluxes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Warming in the upper 100 m of the ocean caused a trend of increasing IW activity since 1900, consistent with global climate model experiments that show stratification in the Luzon Strait increases in response to radiative forcing. IW activity is expected to increase in the NSCS through the 21st century, with implications for mitigating climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23245781','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23245781"><span>Life Participation for Parents: a tool for family-centered occupational therapy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fingerhut, Patricia E</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>This study describes the continued development of the Life Participation for Parents (LPP), a measurement tool to facilitate family-centered pediatric practice. LPP questionnaires were completed by 162 parents of children with special needs receiving intervention at 15 pediatric private practice clinics. Results were analyzed to establish instrument reliability and validity. Good internal consistency (α = .90) and test-retest reliability (r = .89) were established. Construct validity was examined through assessment of internal structure and comparison of the instrument to related variables. A principal components analysis resulted in a two-factor model accounting for 43.81% of the variance. As hypothesized, the LPP correlated only moderately with the Parenting Stress Index-Short Form (r = .54). The variables of child's diagnoses, age, and time in therapy did not predict parental responses. The LPP is a reliable and valid instrument for measuring satisfaction with parental participation in life occupations. Copyright © 2013 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29049154','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29049154"><span>Self-Esteem, Locus of Control, and First-Time NCLEX-RN Passage of BSN Students at Historically Black Colleges and Universities.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chavis, Pamella Ivey</p> <p></p> <p>Relationships between self-esteem, locus of control (LOC), and first-time passage of National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN®) were examined at baccalaureate nursing programs at two historically black colleges and universities. Shortages continue to exceed demands for RNs prepared at the baccalaureate level. Inconsistent pass rates on the NCLEX-RN for graduates of historically black colleges and universities impede the supply of RNs. Surveys and archival data were used to examine characteristics of the sample and explore relationships among variables. All participants (N = 90) reported high self-esteem and internal LOC. Models suggested that all those with high self-esteem and internal LOC would pass the NCLEX-RN; only 85 percent passed the first time. Statistical analysis revealed a lack of statistical significance between self-esteem, LOC, and first-time passage. Variables not included in the study may have affected first-time passage.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Using+AND+Multivariate+AND+Statistics&pg=3&id=EJ1145548','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Using+AND+Multivariate+AND+Statistics&pg=3&id=EJ1145548"><span>Civic Purpose in Late Adolescence: Factors That Prevent Decline in Civic Engagement after High School</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Malin, Heather; Han, Hyemin; Liauw, Indrawati</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>This study investigated the effects of internal and demographic variables on civic development in late adolescence using the construct "civic purpose." We conducted surveys on civic engagement with 480 high school seniors, and surveyed them again 2 years later. Using multivariate regression and linear mixed models, we tested the main…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=human+AND+capital+AND+related+AND+education&pg=2&id=EJ1076919','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=human+AND+capital+AND+related+AND+education&pg=2&id=EJ1076919"><span>Economics of Education and Work Life Demand in Terms of Earnings and Skills</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Xia, Belle Selene; Liitiäinen, Elia</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>This article uses data from a major international survey to construct earnings functions in terms of learning outcomes and variables related to working life in different European countries. In order to complement the extended earnings regression model, the authors have used partial correlation analysis and the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=separation+AND+parents&id=EJ1057874','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=separation+AND+parents&id=EJ1057874"><span>Adolescent-Peer Relationships, Separation and Detachment from Parents, and Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors: Linkages and Interactions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Jager, Justin; Yuen, Cynthia X.; Putnick, Diane L.; Hendricks, Charlene; Bornstein, Marc H.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Most research exploring the interplay between context and adolescent separation and detachment has focused on the family; in contrast, this investigation directs its attention outside of the family to peers. Utilizing a latent variable approach for modeling interactions and incorporating reports of behavioral adjustment from 14-year-old…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25554354','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25554354"><span>Internalized stigma and its psychosocial correlates in Korean patients with serious mental illness.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kim, Woo Jung; Song, Youn Joo; Ryu, Hyun-Sook; Ryu, Vin; Kim, Jae Min; Ha, Ra Yeon; Lee, Su Jin; Namkoong, Kee; Ha, Kyooseob; Cho, Hyun-Sang</p> <p>2015-02-28</p> <p>We aimed to examine internalized stigma of patients with mental illness in Korea and identify the contributing factors to internalized stigma among socio-demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables using a cross-sectional study design. A total of 160 patients were recruited from a university mental hospital. We collected socio-demographic data, clinical variables and administered self-report scales to measure internalized stigma and levels of self-esteem, hopelessness, social support, and social conflict. Internalized stigma was identified in 8.1% of patients in our sample. High internalized stigma was independently predicted by low self-esteem, high hopelessness, and high social conflict among the psychosocial variables. Our finding suggests that simple psychoeducation only for insight gaining cannot improve internalized stigma. To manage internalized stigma in mentally ill patients, it is needed to promote hope and self-esteem. We also suggest that a relevant psychosocial intervention, such as developing coping skills for social conflict with family, can help patients overcome their internalized stigma. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ECSS..148...59R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ECSS..148...59R"><span>A dynamic growth model of macroalgae: Application in an estuary recovering from treated wastewater and earthquake-driven eutrophication</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ren, Jeffrey S.; Barr, Neill G.; Scheuer, Kristin; Schiel, David R.; Zeldis, John</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>A dynamic growth model of macroalgae was developed to predict growth of the green macroalga Ulva sp. in response to changes in environmental variables. The model is based on common physiological behaviour of macroalgae and hence has general applicability to macroalgae. Three state variables (nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus) were used to describe physiological processes and functional differences between nutrient and carbon uptakes. Carbon uptake is modelled as a function of temperature, light, algal internal state and water current, while nutrient uptake depends on internal state, temperature and environmental nutrient level. Growth can only occur when nutrients in the environment and in the internal storage pools (N-quota and P-quota) reach threshold levels. Physiological rates follow the Arrhenius relationship and increase exponentially with increasing temperature within the temperature tolerance range of a species. When parameterised and applied to Ulva sp. in the eutrophic Avon-Heathcote Estuary, New Zealand, the model generally reproduced field observations of Ulva sp. growth and abundance. Growth followed a clear seasonal cycle with biomass increasing from early-middle summer, reaching peak values in early autumn and then decreasing. Conversely, N-quotient levels were maximal during the winter months, declining during summer peak growth. These seasonal patterns were collectively driven by temperature, light intensity and nutrients. The model captured the N-quota and growth responses of Ulva sp. to the N-reduction arising from diversion of treated wastewater from the Avon-Heathcote Estuary to an offshore outfall in 2010, and of raw sewage N-discharges resulting from wastewater infrastructure damage caused by the Canterbury earthquakes in 2011. Sensitivity analyses revealed that temperature-related parameters and maximum uptake rate of C were among the most sensitive parameters in predicting biomass. In addition, the earthquake-derived changes in reduction of immersion time and decrease in the start biomass prior to summer blooms were shown to drive considerable declines in summer growth and biomass of Ulva sp.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JNET...43..171C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JNET...43..171C"><span>A Thermodynamical Theory with Internal Variables Describing Thermal Effects in Viscous Fluids</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ciancio, Vincenzo; Palumbo, Annunziata</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>In this paper the heat conduction in viscous fluids is described by using the theory of classical irreversible thermodynamics with internal variables. In this theory, the deviation from the local equilibrium is characterized by vectorial internal variables and a generalized entropy current density expressed in terms of so-called current multipliers. Cross effects between heat conduction and viscosity are also considered and some phenomenological generalizations of Fourier's and Newton's laws are obtained.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.</div> </div><!-- container --> <a id="backToTop" href="#top"> Top </a> <footer> <nav> <ul class="links"> <li><a href="/sitemap.html">Site Map</a></li> <li><a href="/website-policies.html">Website Policies</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.energy.gov/vulnerability-disclosure-policy" target="_blank">Vulnerability Disclosure Program</a></li> <li><a href="/contact.html">Contact Us</a></li> </ul> </nav> </footer> <script type="text/javascript"><!-- // var lastDiv = ""; function showDiv(divName) { // hide last div if (lastDiv) { document.getElementById(lastDiv).className = "hiddenDiv"; } //if value of the box is not nothing and an object with that name exists, then change the class if (divName && document.getElementById(divName)) { document.getElementById(divName).className = "visibleDiv"; lastDiv = divName; } } //--> </script> <script> /** * Function that tracks a click on an outbound link in Google Analytics. * This function takes a valid URL string as an argument, and uses that URL string * as the event label. */ var trackOutboundLink = function(url,collectionCode) { try { h = window.open(url); setTimeout(function() { ga('send', 'event', 'topic-page-click-through', collectionCode, url); }, 1000); } catch(err){} }; </script> <!-- Google Analytics --> <script> (function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){ (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o), m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m) })(window,document,'script','//www.google-analytics.com/analytics.js','ga'); ga('create', 'UA-1122789-34', 'auto'); ga('send', 'pageview'); </script> <!-- End Google Analytics --> <script> showDiv('page_1') </script> </body> </html>