Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

On the generation of climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy; Phipps, Steven J.

2014-10-01

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.

A Spreadsheet Model That Estimates the Impact of Reduced Distribution Time on Inventory Investment Savings: What is a Day Taken Out of the Pipeline Worth in Inventory?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

fall-2006/lecture-notes/lect11.pdf Chang, C.-T. (2005). A Linearization Approach for Inventory Models with Variable Lead Time. International Journal of Production Economics , 263...Demand and Lead Time are Stochastic. International Journal of Production Economics , 595-605. Hayya, J. C., Harrison, T. P., & He, X. (2011). The Impact

Optimization techniques for integrating spatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herzfeld, U.C.; Merriam, D.F.

1995-01-01

Two optimization techniques ta predict a spatial variable from any number of related spatial variables are presented. The applicability of the two different methods for petroleum-resource assessment is tested in a mature oil province of the Midcontinent (USA). The information on petroleum productivity, usually not directly accessible, is related indirectly to geological, geophysical, petrographical, and other observable data. This paper presents two approaches based on construction of a multivariate spatial model from the available data to determine a relationship for prediction. In the first approach, the variables are combined into a spatial model by an algebraic map-comparison/integration technique. Optimal weights for the map comparison function are determined by the Nelder-Mead downhill simplex algorithm in multidimensions. Geologic knowledge is necessary to provide a first guess of weights to start the automatization, because the solution is not unique. In the second approach, active set optimization for linear prediction of the target under positivity constraints is applied. Here, the procedure seems to select one variable from each data type (structure, isopachous, and petrophysical) eliminating data redundancy. Automating the determination of optimum combinations of different variables by applying optimization techniques is a valuable extension of the algebraic map-comparison/integration approach to analyzing spatial data. Because of the capability of handling multivariate data sets and partial retention of geographical information, the approaches can be useful in mineral-resource exploration. ?? 1995 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Juselius, Katarina

2016-02-01

We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

Kidney injury biomarkers and urinary creatinine variability in nominally healthy adults

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental exposure diagnostics use creatinine concentrations in urine aliquots as the internal standard for dilution normalization of all other excreted metabolites when urinary excretion rate data are not available. This is a reasonable approach for healthy adults as creati...

Adaptive Variability in Skilled Human Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Kazutoshi; Ohtsuki, Tatsuyuki

Human movements are produced in variable external/internal environments. Because of this variability, the same motor command can result in quite different movement patterns. Therefore, to produce skilled movements humans must coordinate the variability, not try to exclude it. In addition, because human movements are produced in redundant and complex systems, a combination of variability should be observed in different anatomical/physiological levels. In this paper, we introduce our research about human movement variability that shows remarkable coordination among components, and between organism and environment. We also introduce nonlinear dynamical models that can describe a variety of movements as a self-organization of a dynamical system, because the dynamical systems approach is a major candidate to understand the principle underlying organization of varying systems with huge degrees-of-freedom.

"More bang for the buck": exploring optimal approaches for guideline implementation through interviews with international developers.

PubMed

Gagliardi, Anna R

2012-11-15

Population based studies show that guidelines are underused. Surveys of international guideline developers found that many do not implement their guidelines. The purpose of this research was to interview guideline developers about implementation approaches and resources. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of guideline development agencies identified in the National Guideline Clearinghouse and sampled by country, type of developer, and guideline clinical indication. Participants were asked to comment on the benefits and resource implications of three approaches for guideline implementation that varied by responsibility: developers, intermediaries, or users. Thirty individuals from seven countries were interviewed, representing government (n = 12) and professional (n = 18) organizations that produced guidelines for a variety of clinical indications. Organizations with an implementation mandate featured widely inconsistent funding and staffing models, variable approaches for choosing promotional strategies, and an array of dissemination activities. When asked to choose a preferred approach, most participants selected the option of including information within guidelines that would help users to implement them. Given variable mandate and resources for implementation, it was considered the most feasible approach, and therefore most likely to have impact due to potentially broad use. While implementation approaches and strategies need not be standardized across organizations, the findings may be used by health care policy makers and managers, and guideline developers to generate strategic and operational plans that optimize implementation capacity. Further research is needed to examine how to optimize implementation capacity by guideline developers, intermediaries and users.

[Referral to internal medicine for alcoholism: influence on follow-up care].

PubMed

Avila, P; Marcos, M; Avila, J J; Laso, F J

2008-11-01

The problem of high rates of patient drop-out in alcohol treatment programs is frequently reported in the literature. Our aim was to investigate if internal medicine referral could improve abstinence and retention rates in a cohort of alcoholic patients. A retrospective observational study was conducted comparing 200 alcoholic patients attending a psychiatric unit (group 1) with 100 patients attending both this unit and an internal medicine unit (group 2). We collected sociodemographic and clinical variables and analysed differences regarding abstinence and retention rates by means of univariate and multivariate analysis. At 3 and 12 months follow-up, group 2 patients had higher retention and abstinence rates than group 1 patients. Multivariate analysis including potential confounding variables showed that independent predictors of one-year retention were internal medicine referral and being married. Independent predictors of one-year abstinence were being married, age > 44 years and receipt of drug treatment. The higher retention rate found among patients referred to Internal Medicine specialists, a result that has not been previously reported to the best of our knowledge, emphasizes the importance of a multidisciplinary team approach in the treatment of alcoholism.

Determination of low intrinsic clearance in vitro: the benefit of a novel internal standard in human hepatocyte incubations.

PubMed

Zanelli, Ugo; Michna, Thomas; Petersson, Carl

2018-03-26

1. A novel method utilizing an internal standard in hepatocytes incubations has been developed and demonstrated to decrease the variability in the determination of intrinsic clearance (CL int ) in this system. The reduced variability was shown to allow differentiation of lower elimination rate constants from noise. 2. The suggested method was able to compensate for a small but systematic error (0.5 µL/min/10 6 cells) caused by an evaporation of approximately 15% of the volume during the incubation time. 3. The approach was validated using six commercial drugs (ketoprofen, tolbutamide, phenacetin, etodolac and quinidine) which were metabolized by different pathways. 4. The suggested internal standard, MSC1815677, was extensively characterized and the acquired data suggest that it fulfills the requirements of an internal standard present during the incubation. The proposed internal standard was stable during the incubation and showed a low potential to inhibit drug metabolizing enzymes and transporters. With MSC1815677 we propose a novel simple, robust and cost-effective method to address the challenges in the estimation of low clearance in hepatocyte incubations.

Family breakup and adolescents' psychosocial maladjustment: public health implications of family disruptions.

PubMed

Roustit, Christelle; Chaix, Basile; Chauvin, Pierre

2007-10-01

Recent changes in family structure are associated with an increase in psychosocial maladjustment in adolescents. We examined, from a public health intervention perspective, the association between family breakup and psychosocial maladjustment in adolescents and assessed the mediating role of family-functioning variables. We analyzed data from the Social and Health Survey of Children and Adolescents in Quebec, Montreal, Canada, which was conducted in 1999. Sample-weighted logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the risk of internalizing disorders, externalizing disorders, substance abuse, and alcohol consumption in relation to family breakups and family-functioning variables, after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. All 4 of the indicators of psychosocial maladjustment were significantly associated with family breakup. The association between family breakups and internalizing disorders was mediated by parental psychological distress and low paternal emotional support. Independently, the witnessing of interparental violence was also strongly associated with internalizing disorders. For the other 3 outcomes, that is, externalizing disorders, substance abuse, and alcohol consumption, family breakup and family-functioning variables had independent effects. Family-based interventions and social approaches are complementary support modalities for adolescents experiencing family disruptions.

Impression management and achievement motivation: Investigating substantive links.

PubMed

Elliot, Andrew J; Aldhobaiban, Nawal; Murayama, Kou; Kobeisy, Ahmed; Gocłowska, Małgorzata A; Khyat, Aber

2018-02-01

In this research, we investigate impression management (IM) as a substantive personality variable by linking it to differentiated achievement motivation constructs, namely achievement motives (workmastery, competitiveness, fear of failure) and achievement goals (mastery-approach, mastery-avoidance, performance-approach, performance-avoidance). Study 1 revealed that IM was a positive predictor of workmastery and a negative predictor of competitiveness (with and without self-deceptive enhancement (SDE) controlled). Studies 2a and 2b revealed that IM was a positive predictor of mastery-approach goals and mastery-avoidance goals (without and, in Study 2b, with SDE controlled). These findings highlight the value of conceptualising and utilising IM as a personality variable in its own right and shed light on the nature of the achievement motive and achievement goal constructs. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Measuring achievement goal motivation, mindsets and cognitive load: validation of three instruments' scores.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Castillo, Richmond M; Gas, Becca; Artino, Anthony R

2017-10-01

Measurement of motivation and cognitive load has potential value in health professions education. Our objective was to evaluate the validity of scores from Dweck's Implicit Theories of Intelligence Scale (ITIS), Elliot's Achievement Goal Questionnaire-Revised (AGQ-R) and Leppink's cognitive load index (CLI). This was a validity study evaluating internal structure using reliability and factor analysis, and relationships with other variables using the multitrait-multimethod matrix. Two hundred and thirty-two secondary school students participated in a medical simulation-based training activity at an academic medical center. Pre-activity ITIS (implicit theory [mindset] domains: incremental, entity) and AGQ-R (achievement goal domains: mastery-approach, mastery-avoidance, performance-approach, performance-avoidance), post-activity CLI (cognitive load domains: intrinsic, extrinsic, germane) and task persistence (self-directed repetitions on a laparoscopic surgery task) were measured. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha) was > 0.70 for all domain scores except AGQ-R performance-avoidance (alpha 0.68) and CLI extrinsic load (alpha 0.64). Confirmatory factor analysis of ITIS and CLI scores demonstrated acceptable model fit. Confirmatory factor analysis of AGQ-R scores demonstrated borderline fit, and exploratory factor analysis suggested a three-domain model for achievement goals (mastery-approach, performance and avoidance). Correlations among scores from conceptually-related domains generally aligned with expectations, as follows: ITIS incremental and entity, r = -0.52; AGQ-R mastery-avoidance and performance-avoidance, r = 0.71; mastery-approach and performance-approach, r = 0.55; performance-approach and performance-avoidance, r = 0.43; mastery-approach and mastery-avoidance, r = 0.36; CLI germane and extrinsic, r = -0.35; ITIS incremental and AGQ-R mastery-approach, r = 0.34; ITIS incremental and CLI germane, r = 0.44; AGQ-R mastery-approach and CLI germane, r = 0.48 (all p < 0.001). We found no correlation between the number of task repetitions (i.e. persistence) and mastery-approach scores, r = -0.01. ITIS and CLI scores had appropriate internal structures and relationships with other variables. AGQ-R scores fit a three-factor (not four-factor) model that collapsed avoidance into one domain, although relationships of other variables with the original four domain scores generally aligned with expectations. Mastery goals are positively correlated with germane cognitive load. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Quantifying the process and outcomes of person-centered planning.

PubMed

Holburn, S; Jacobson, J W; Vietze, P M; Schwartz, A A; Sersen, E

2000-09-01

Although person-centered planning is a popular approach in the field of developmental disabilities, there has been little systematic assessment of its process and outcomes. To measure person-centered planning, we developed three instruments designed to assess its various aspects. We then constructed variables comprising both a Process and an Outcome Index using a combined rational-empirical method. Test-retest reliability and measures of internal consistency appeared adequate. Variable correlations and factor analysis were generally consistent with our conceptualization and resulting item and variable classifications. Practical implications for intervention integrity, program evaluation, and organizational performance are discussed.

Modeling the zonal disintegration of rocks near deep level tunnels by gradient internal variable continuous phase transition theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haoxiang, Chen; Qi, Chengzhi; Peng, Liu; Kairui, Li; Aifantis, Elias C.

2015-12-01

The occurrence of alternating damage zones surrounding underground openings (commonly known as zonal disintegration) is treated as a "far from thermodynamic equilibrium" dynamical process or a nonlinear continuous phase transition phenomenon. The approach of internal variable gradient theory with diffusive transport, which may be viewed as a subclass of Landau's phase transition theory, is adopted. The order parameter is identified with an irreversible strain quantity, the gradient of which enters into the expression for the free energy of the rock system. The gradient term stabilizes the material behavior in the post-softening regime, where zonal disintegration occurs. The results of a simplified linearized analysis are confirmed by the numerical solution of the nonlinear problem.

Contribution of tropical instability waves to ENSO irregularity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, Ryan M.; McGregor, Shayne; Santoso, Agus; England, Matthew H.

2018-05-01

Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are a major source of internally-generated oceanic variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These non-linear phenomena play an important role in the sea surface temperature (SST) budget in a region critical for low-frequency modes of variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, the direct contribution of TIW-driven stochastic variability to ENSO has received little attention. Here, we investigate the influence of TIWs on ENSO using a 1/4° ocean model coupled to a simple atmosphere. The use of a simple atmosphere removes complex intrinsic atmospheric variability while allowing the dominant mode of air-sea coupling to be represented as a statistical relationship between SST and wind stress anomalies. Using this hybrid coupled model, we perform a suite of coupled ensemble forecast experiments initiated with wind bursts in the western Pacific, where individual ensemble members differ only due to internal oceanic variability. We find that TIWs can induce a spread in the forecast amplitude of the Niño 3 SST anomaly 6-months after a given sequence of WWBs of approximately ± 45% the size of the ensemble mean anomaly. Further, when various estimates of stochastic atmospheric forcing are added, oceanic internal variability is found to contribute between about 20% and 70% of the ensemble forecast spread, with the remainder attributable to the atmospheric variability. While the oceanic contribution to ENSO stochastic forcing requires further quantification beyond the idealized approach used here, our results nevertheless suggest that TIWs may impact ENSO irregularity and predictability. This has implications for ENSO representation in low-resolution coupled models.

Relating Neuronal to Behavioral Performance: Variability of Optomotor Responses in the Blowfly

PubMed Central

Rosner, Ronny; Warzecha, Anne-Kathrin

2011-01-01

Behavioral responses of an animal vary even when they are elicited by the same stimulus. This variability is due to stochastic processes within the nervous system and to the changing internal states of the animal. To what extent does the variability of neuronal responses account for the overall variability at the behavioral level? To address this question we evaluate the neuronal variability at the output stage of the blowfly's (Calliphora vicina) visual system by recording from motion-sensitive interneurons mediating head optomotor responses. By means of a simple modelling approach representing the sensory-motor transformation, we predict head movements on the basis of the recorded responses of motion-sensitive neurons and compare the variability of the predicted head movements with that of the observed ones. Large gain changes of optomotor head movements have previously been shown to go along with changes in the animals' activity state. Our modelling approach substantiates that these gain changes are imposed downstream of the motion-sensitive neurons of the visual system. Moreover, since predicted head movements are clearly more reliable than those actually observed, we conclude that substantial variability is introduced downstream of the visual system. PMID:22066014

High-Temperature Deformation Behavior of HCP Alloys -- An Internal Variable Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-31

successfully to characterize the high temperature deformation behavior of various metallic materials such as Al alloys, Pb-Sn hyper- eutectic alloy, and...implying dynamic recrystallization (DRX) and GBS as the major deformation mechanisms at 523 K and 10-4 /s. Large cavities are observed at the

Applying Theoretical Components to the Implementation of Health-Promoting Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIsaac, Jessie-Lee; Storey, Kate; Veugelers, Paul J.; Kirk, Sara F. L.

2015-01-01

Objective: Health-promoting schools (HPS) constitute an internationally recognised approach that connects health and education in a planned, integrated and holistic way. There is considerable variability, however, in how HPS is implemented and recent research has attempted to clarify the key functions of implementation. A provincial HPS strategy…

Transnational Higher Education: The Importance of Institutional Reputation, Trust and Student-University Identification in International Partnerships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heffernan, Troy; Wilkins, Stephen; Butt, Muhammad Mohsin

2018-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the extent to which the critical relational variables of university reputation, student trust and student-university identification influence student behaviour towards transnational education partnerships. Design/methodology/approach: Students undertaking British degrees at two transnational…

A Methodological Approach for Training Analysts of Small Business Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mackness, J. R.

1986-01-01

Steps in a small business analysis are discussed: understand how company activities interact internally and with markets and suppliers; know the relative importance of controllable management variables; understand the social atmosphere within the company; analyze the operations of the company; define main problem areas; identify possible actions…

Reframing Approaches to Narrating Young People's Conceptualisations of Citizenship in Education Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Akar, Bassel

2018-01-01

Large-scale quantitative studies on citizenship and citizenship education research have advanced an international and comparative field of democratic citizenship education. Their instruments, however, informed by theoretical variables constructed in Western Europe and North America mostly measure young people's understandings of a predefined…

Towards multi-resolution global climate modeling with ECHAM6-FESOM. Part II: climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rackow, T.; Goessling, H. F.; Jung, T.; Sidorenko, D.; Semmler, T.; Barbi, D.; Handorf, D.

2018-04-01

This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse 1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to 0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (`hiatus' analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.

Techno-Political Space Cooperation: A Longitudinal Analysis of NASA's Bilateral and Multilateral Agreements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hudiburg, John J.

2004-01-01

NASA's international programs are both numerous and successful, with over two thousand international agreements forming a foundation of U.S. government cooperation that involved over half the United Nation's membership. Previous research, by the author, into these agreements has identified five variables underlying NASA's international cooperation efforts and these variables form a framework for explaining international cooperation behavior on a macro-level. This paper builds upon that research to effectively explain lower-level patterns of cooperation in NASA's experience. Two approaches for analyzing the space agency's history are used: aggregation of all agreements and a cluster (disaggregated) analysis of four key segments. While researchers of NASA's international cooperation often considered individual cases first, and then generalize to macro-level explanations. This study, in contrast, begins by considering all agreements together in order to explain as much as possible at the macro level before proceeding to lower tier explanations. These lower tier assessments are important to understanding regional and political influences on bilateral and multilateral cooperation. In order to accomplish this lower-tier analysis, the 2000 agreements are disaggregated into logical groupings enabling an analysis of important questions and clearer focus on key patterns concerning developing states, such as the role of international institutions or privatization on international cooperation in space technology.

“More bang for the buck”: exploring optimal approaches for guideline implementation through interviews with international developers

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Population based studies show that guidelines are underused. Surveys of international guideline developers found that many do not implement their guidelines. The purpose of this research was to interview guideline developers about implementation approaches and resources. Methods Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with representatives of guideline development agencies identified in the National Guideline Clearinghouse and sampled by country, type of developer, and guideline clinical indication. Participants were asked to comment on the benefits and resource implications of three approaches for guideline implementation that varied by responsibility: developers, intermediaries, or users. Results Thirty individuals from seven countries were interviewed, representing government (n = 12) and professional (n = 18) organizations that produced guidelines for a variety of clinical indications. Organizations with an implementation mandate featured widely inconsistent funding and staffing models, variable approaches for choosing promotional strategies, and an array of dissemination activities. When asked to choose a preferred approach, most participants selected the option of including information within guidelines that would help users to implement them. Given variable mandate and resources for implementation, it was considered the most feasible approach, and therefore most likely to have impact due to potentially broad use. Conclusions While implementation approaches and strategies need not be standardized across organizations, the findings may be used by health care policy makers and managers, and guideline developers to generate strategic and operational plans that optimize implementation capacity. Further research is needed to examine how to optimize implementation capacity by guideline developers, intermediaries and users. PMID:23153052

Importance of joint efforts for balanced process of designing and education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayorova, V. I.; Bannova, O. K.; Kristiansen, T.-H.; Igritsky, V. A.

2015-06-01

This paper discusses importance of a strategic planning and design process when developing long-term space exploration missions both robotic and manned. The discussion begins with reviewing current and/or traditional international perspectives on space development at the American, Russian and European space agencies. Some analogies and comparisons will be drawn upon analysis of several international student collaborative programs: Summer International workshops at the Bauman Moscow State Technical University, International European Summer Space School "Future Space Technologies and Experiments in Space", Summer school at Stuttgart University in Germany. The paper will focus on discussion about optimization of design and planning processes for successful space exploration missions and will highlight importance of the following: understanding connectivity between different levels of human being and machinery; simultaneous mission planning approach; reflections and correlations between disciplines involved in planning and executing space exploration missions; knowledge gained from different disciplines and through cross-applying and re-applying design approaches between variable space related fields of study and research. The conclusions will summarize benefits and complications of applying balanced design approach at all levels of the design process. Analysis of successes and failures of organizational efforts in space endeavors is used as a methodological approach to identify key questions to be researched as they often cause many planning and design processing problems.

Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.

2017-12-01

While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.

A simple solution for model comparison in bold imaging: the special case of reward prediction error and reward outcomes.

PubMed

Erdeniz, Burak; Rohe, Tim; Done, John; Seidler, Rachael D

2013-01-01

Conventional neuroimaging techniques provide information about condition-related changes of the BOLD (blood-oxygen-level dependent) signal, indicating only where and when the underlying cognitive processes occur. Recently, with the help of a new approach called "model-based" functional neuroimaging (fMRI), researchers are able to visualize changes in the internal variables of a time varying learning process, such as the reward prediction error or the predicted reward value of a conditional stimulus. However, despite being extremely beneficial to the imaging community in understanding the neural correlates of decision variables, a model-based approach to brain imaging data is also methodologically challenging due to the multicollinearity problem in statistical analysis. There are multiple sources of multicollinearity in functional neuroimaging including investigations of closely related variables and/or experimental designs that do not account for this. The source of multicollinearity discussed in this paper occurs due to correlation between different subjective variables that are calculated very close in time. Here, we review methodological approaches to analyzing such data by discussing the special case of separating the reward prediction error signal from reward outcomes.

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Reply to Comment by Laprise on 'the Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: a Case Study over the Continental U.S. Using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew Todd; Racherla, Pavan; Milly, George Peter

2014-01-01

In his comment, Laprise raises several points that we agree merit consideration. His primary critique is that our study [Racherla et al., 2012] tested the ability of the WRF regional climate model to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation change relative to the driving global climate model (GCM) using only a single simulation rather than an ensemble. He asserts that the observed changes are smaller than the internal variability in the climate system (i.e., not statistically significant) and that thus a single simulation should not necessarily be able to capture the observations. Laprise points out that the statistical signal is reduced for a multi-decadal trend such as the one we analyzed in comparison with mean climatology and cites two studies showing that for particular climate parameters it can take any years for a signal to be discerned over internal variability. He states that The results of theexperiment as designed were strongly influenced by the presence of internal variability and sampling errors,which masked the rather small climate changes that may have occurred as a consequence of changes inforcing during the period considered. While Laprise discusses statistics in general terms at some length, for the actual climate trends examined in our study, he offers no evidence that the forced signal was smallcompared with internal variability. The two studies he cites [de Ela et al., 2013; Maraun, 2013] do not provide convincing evidence as they concern climate variables averaged over different times and areas. One in fact examines extreme precipitation events, which by definition are rare and thus have a lower significance level. We accept the general point that it is important to consider internal variability, and as noted in our paper we agree that an ensemble of simulations is in principle an optimal, though computationally expensive, approach. While we did not present the statistical significance of the observations in our original paper, we have now evaluated those for the regional temperature trends used in our study to evaluate the added value of WRF and thus can analyze data as to the magnitude of the trends with respect to internal variability.

Internalized weight bias mediates the relationship between depressive symptoms and disordered eating behavior among women who think they are overweight.

PubMed

Sienko, Rachel M; Saules, Karen K; Carr, Meagan M

2016-08-01

This study tested the potential mediating role of Internalized Weight Bias (IWB) in the relationship between depressive symptoms (DEP-SX) and disordered eating behavior. In particular, we hypothesized that IWB may be an intervening variable in the well documented association between depression and disordered eating. College women (N=172) who were taking undergraduate psychology courses and who endorsed thinking they were overweight completed the Patient Health Questionnaire depression screener (PHQ-9), the Weight Bias Internalization Scale (WBIS), and the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q). Bootstrapping mediation analyses were conducted to explore the relationships between these variables. IWB was significantly correlated with eating disorder symptoms and DEP-SX, but not Body Mass Index. Mediation analyses supported a model in which IWB mediated the relationship between DEP-SX and disordered eating behavior. Results indicate that individuals with elevated DEP-SX may be likely to internalize weight bias, which may in turn lead to maladaptive approaches to eating and weight control, regardless of one's actual weight status. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correspondence model-based 4D VMAT dose simulation for analysis of local metastasis recurrence after extracranial SBRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sothmann, T.; Gauer, T.; Wilms, M.; Werner, R.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this study is to introduce a novel approach to incorporate patient-specific breathing variability information into 4D dose simulation of volumetric arc therapy (VMAT)-based stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) of extracranial metastases. Feasibility of the approach is illustrated by application to treatment planning and motion data of lung and liver metastasis patients. The novel 4D dose simulation approach makes use of a regression-based correspondence model that allows representing patient motion variability by breathing signal-steered interpolation and extrapolation of deformable image registration motion fields. To predict the internal patient motion during treatment with only external breathing signal measurements being available, the patients’ internal motion information and external breathing signals acquired during 4D CT imaging were correlated. Combining the correspondence model, patient-specific breathing signal measurements during treatment and time-resolved information about dose delivery, reconstruction of a motion variability-affected dose becomes possible. As a proof of concept, the proposed approach is illustrated by a retrospective 4D simulation of VMAT-based SBRT treatment of ten patients with 15 treated lung and liver metastases and known clinical endpoints for the individual metastases (local metastasis recurrence yes/no). Resulting 4D-simulated dose distributions were compared to motion-affected dose distributions estimated by standard 4D CT-only dose accumulation and the originally (i.e. statically) planned dose distributions by means of GTV D98 indices (dose to 98% of the GTV volume). A potential linkage of metastasis-specific endpoints to differences between GTV D98 indices of planned and 4D-simulated dose distributions was analyzed.

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach, over 8 years, in 11 cities of Turkey.

PubMed

Leblebicioglu, Hakan; Koksal, Iftihar; Rosenthal, Victor D; Akan, Özay Arıkan; Özgültekin, Asu; Kendirli, Tanil; Erben, Nurettin; Yalcin, Ata Nevzat; Ulusoy, Sercan; Sirmatel, Fatma; Ozdemir, Davut; Alp, Emine; Yıldızdaş, Dinçer; Esen, Saban; Ulger, Fatma; Dilek, Ahmet; Yilmaz, Hava; Yýlmaz, Gürdal; Kaya, Selçuk; Ulusoy, Hülya; Tulunay, Melek; Oral, Mehmet; Ünal, Necmettin; Turan, Güldem; Akgün, Nur; İnan, Asuman; Ince, Erdal; Karbuz, Adem; Çiftçi, Ergin; Taşyapar, Nevin; Güneş, Melek; Ozgunes, Ilhan; Usluer, Gaye; Turhan, Ozge; Gunay, Nurgul; Gumus, Eylul; Dursun, Oguz; Arda, Bilgin; Bacakoglu, Feza; Cengiz, Mustafa; Yilmaz, Leyla; Geyik, Mehmet Faruk; Şahin, Ahmet; Erdogan, Selvi; Kılıc, Aysegul Ulu; Horoz, Ozden Ozgur

2015-07-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach in Turkey and analyse predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance. An observational, prospective, interventional, before-and-after study was conducted from August 2003 to August 2011 in 12 intensive care units (ICU) of 12 hospitals in 11 cities. The study was divided into a baseline and a follow-up period and included random 30-minute observations for hand hygiene compliance in ICU. The hand hygiene approach included administrative support, supplies availability, education and training, reminders in the workplace, process surveillance, and performance feedback. We observed 21,145 opportunities for hand hygiene. Overall hand hygiene compliance increased from 28.8% to 91% (95% CI 87.6-93.0, p 0.0001). Multivariate and univariate analyses showed that several variables were significantly associated with poor hand hygiene compliance: males vs. females (39% vs. 48%; 95% CI 0.79-0.84, p 0.0001), ancillary staff vs. physicians (35% vs. 46%, 95% CI 0.73-0.78, p 0.0001), and adult vs. pediatric ICUs (42% vs. 74%, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p 0.0001). Adherence to hand hygiene was significantly increased with the INICC Hand Hygiene Approach. Specific programmes should be directed to improve hand hygiene in variables found to be predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance.

An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening

DOE PAGES

Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.

2018-03-11

A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less

An evolving effective stress approach to anisotropic distortional hardening

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lester, B. T.; Scherzinger, W. M.

A new yield surface with an evolving effective stress definition is proposed for consistently and efficiently describing anisotropic distortional hardening. Specifically, a new internal state variable is introduced to capture the thermodynamic evolution between different effective stress definitions. The corresponding yield surface and evolution equations of the internal variables are derived from thermodynamic considerations enabling satisfaction of the second law. A closest point projection return mapping algorithm for the proposed model is formulated and implemented for use in finite element analyses. Finally, select constitutive and larger scale boundary value problems are solved to explore the capabilities of the model andmore » examine the impact of distortional hardening on constitutive and structural responses. Importantly, these simulations demonstrate the tractability of the proposed formulation in investigating large-scale problems of interest.« less

A two-step approach for copper and nickel extracting and recovering by emulsion liquid membrane.

PubMed

Bi, Qiang; Xue, Juanqin; Guo, Yingjuan; Li, Guoping; Cui, Haibin

2016-11-01

The recycling of copper and nickel from metallurgical wastewater using emulsion liquid membrane (ELM) was studied. P507 (2-ethylhexyl phosphonic acid-2-ethylhexyl ester) and TBP (tributyl phosphate) were used as carriers for the extraction of copper and nickel by ELMs, respectively. The influence of four emulsion composition variables, namely, the internal phase volume fraction (ϕ), surfactant concentration (Wsurf), internal phase stripping acid concentration (Cio) and the carrier concentration (Cc), and the process variable treat ratio on the extraction efficiencies of copper or nickel were studied. Under the optimum conditions, 98% copper and nickel were recycled by using ELM. The results indicated that ELM extraction is a promising industrial application technology to retrieve valuable metals in low concentration metallurgical wastewater.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

A study on the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution: evidence from China.

PubMed

Boamah, Kofi Baah; Du, Jianguo; Boamah, Angela Jacinta; Appiah, Kingsley

2018-02-01

This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980-2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances.

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Solvency supervision based on a total balance sheet approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitselis, Georgios

2009-11-01

In this paper we investigate the adequacy of the own funds a company requires in order to remain healthy and avoid insolvency. Two methods are applied here; the quantile regression method and the method of mixed effects models. Quantile regression is capable of providing a more complete statistical analysis of the stochastic relationship among random variables than least squares estimation. The estimated mixed effects line can be considered as an internal industry equation (norm), which explains a systematic relation between a dependent variable (such as own funds) with independent variables (e.g. financial characteristics, such as assets, provisions, etc.). The above two methods are implemented with two data sets.

Evapotranspiration from nonuniform surfaces - A first approach for short-term numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzel, Peter J.; Chang, Jy-Tai

1988-01-01

Observations of surface heterogeneity of soil moisture from scales of meters to hundreds of kilometers are discussed, and a relationship between grid element size and soil moisture variability is presented. An evapotranspiration model is presented which accounts for the variability of soil moisture, standing surface water, and vegetation internal and stomatal resistance to moisture flow from the soil. The mean values and standard deviations of these parameters are required as input to the model. Tests of this model against field observations are reported, and extensive sensitivity tests are presented which explore the importance of including subgrid-scale variability in an evapotranspiration model.

Personality Subtypes of Suicidal Adults

PubMed Central

Westen, Drew; Bradley, Rebekah

2009-01-01

Research into personality factors related to suicidality suggests substantial variability among suicide attempters. A potentially useful approach that accounts for this complexity is personality subtyping. As part of a large sample looking at personality pathology, this study used Q-factor analysis to identify subtypes of 311 adult suicide attempters using SWAP-II personality profiles. Identified subtypes included Internalizing, Emotionally Dysregulated, Dependent, Hostile-Isolated, Psychopathic, and Anxious-Somatizing. Subtypes differed in hypothesized ways on criterion variables that address their construct validity, including adaptive functioning, Axis I and II comorbidity, and etiology-related variables (e.g., history of abuse). Furthermore, dimensional ratings of the subtypes predicted adaptive functioning above DSM-based diagnoses and symptoms. PMID:19752649

A PRELIMINARY APPROACH TO CHARACTERIZING VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAMMALIAN PCDD/F AND PCB TEFS

EPA Science Inventory

The current toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) for PCDD/Fs and "dioxin-like" PCBs represent consensus-based values that were recommended by an international panel of experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) in June of 19971. As a part of the development of the mamma...

The Use of Multiple Regression and Trend Analysis to Understand Enrollment Fluctuations. AIR Forum 1979 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, S. Duke; Greenberg, Barry

The development of a predictive equation capable of explaining a significant percentage of enrollment variability at Florida International University is described. A model utilizing trend analysis and a multiple regression approach to enrollment forecasting was adapted to investigate enrollment dynamics at the university. Four independent…

High-speed Internet Use and Academic Gratifications in the College Residence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Denise; Schrum, Lynne

2003-01-01

A multimethod exploration of undergraduates' high-speed Internet use in residence halls took a uses-and-gratifications approach and revealed Internet use as integral to students' lives. Students' negative comments about Internet distractions from academic work led to identification of an individual difference variable, internal locus of control of…

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach During 3 Years in 6 Hospitals in 3 Mexican Cities.

PubMed

Miranda-Novales, María Guadalupe; Sobreyra-Oropeza, Martha; Rosenthal, Víctor Daniel; Higuera, Francisco; Armas-Ruiz, Alberto; Pérez-Serrato, Irma; Torres-Hernández, Héctor; Zamudio-Lugo, Irma; Flores-Ruiz, Eric M; Campuzano, Roberto; Mena-Brito, Jorge; Sánchez-López, Martha; Chávez-Gómez, Amalia; Rivera-Morales, Jaime; Valero-Rodríguez, Julián E

2015-06-10

To evaluate the impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene (HH) approach in Mexico, and analyze predictors of poor HH compliance. From June 2002 to April 2006, we conducted a prospective, observational, before-and-after study in 8 intensive care units (ICUs) from 6 hospitals in 3 cities of Mexico. The approach included administrative support, availability of supplies, education and training, reminders in the workplace, process surveillance, and performance feedback. A total of 13,201 observations for HH opportunities were done in each ICU, during randomly selected 30-minute periods. Overall, HH compliance increased from 45% to 79% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69.1-86.5; P = 0.01). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that several variables were significantly associated with poor HH compliance: males versus females (61% versus 66%; 95% CI, 0.91-0.96; P = 0.0001), physicians versus nurses (62% versus 67%; 95% CI, 0.91-0.97; P = 0.0001), and adult versus neonatal ICUs (67% versus 54%; 95% CI, 0.79-0.84; P = 0.0001), among others. Hand hygiene programs should focus on variables found to be predictors of poor HH compliance.

Influence of some formulation variables on the optimization of pH-dependent, colon-targeted, sustained-release mesalamine microspheres.

PubMed

El-Bary, Ahmed Abd; Aboelwafa, Ahmed A; Al Sharabi, Ibrahim M

2012-03-01

The aim of this work was to understand the influence of different formulation variables on the optimization of pH-dependent, colon-targeted, sustained-release mesalamine microspheres prepared by O/O emulsion solvent evaporation method, employing pH-dependent Eudragit S and hydrophobic pH-independent ethylcellulose polymers. Formulation variables studied included concentration of Eudragit S in the internal phase and the ratios between; internal to external phase, drug to Eudragit S and Eudragit S to ethylcellulose to mesalamine. Prepared microspheres were evaluated by carrying out in vitro release studies and determination of particle size, production yield, and encapsulation efficiency. In addition, morphology of microspheres was examined using optical and scanning electron microscopy. Emulsion solvent evaporation method was found to be sensitive to the studied formulation variables. Particle size and encapsulation efficiency increased by increasing Eudragit S concentration in the internal phase, ratio of internal to external phase, and ratio of Eudragit S to the drug. Employing Eudragit S alone in preparation of the microspheres is only successful in forming acid-resistant microspheres with pulsatile release pattern at high pH. Eudragit S and ethylcellulose blend microspheres were able to control release under acidic condition and to extend drug release at high pH. The stability studies carried out at 40°C/75% RH for 6 months proved the stability of the optimized formulation. From the results of this investigation, microencapsulation of mesalamine in microspheres using blend of Eudragit S and ethylcellulose could constitute a promising approach for site-specific and controlled delivery of drug in colon.

International guidelines for bioequivalence of systemically available orally administered generic drug products: a survey of similarities and differences.

PubMed

Davit, Barbara; Braddy, April C; Conner, Dale P; Yu, Lawrence X

2013-10-01

The objective of this article is to discuss the similarities and differences among bioequivalence approaches used by international regulatory authorities when reviewing applications for marketing new generic drug products which are systemically active and intended for oral administration. We focused on the 13 jurisdictions and organizations participating in the International Generic Drug Regulators Pilot. These are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Chinese Taipei, the European Medicines Association, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, the USA, and the World Health Organization. We began with a comparison of how the various jurisdictions and organizations define a generic product and its corresponding reference product. We then compared the following bioequivalence approaches: recommended bioequivalence study designs, method of pharmacokinetic calculations and bioequivalence acceptance limits, recommendations for modifying bioequivalence study designs and limits for highly variable drugs and narrow therapeutic index drugs, provisions for waiving bioequivalence study requirements (granting biowaivers), and implementation of the Biopharmaceutics Classification System. We observed that, overall, there are more similarities than differences in bioequivalence approaches among the regulatory authorities surveyed.

Current advancements in the diagnosis and treatment of chronic pelvic pain.

PubMed

Morrissey, Darlene; Ginzburg, Natasha; Whitmore, Kristene

2014-07-01

The diagnosis and treatment of chronic pelvic pain (CPP) have moved away from targeting a specific organ to multifactorial and multidisciplinary individualized approach to treatment strategies. The purpose of this article is to review the current advancements in diagnosis and treatment of CPP. Recognition that response to current treatment approach to CPP syndrome is variable; organizations such as the European Association of Urology, American Urologic Association, International Continence Society, International Association for the Study of Pain, and others have integrated the most current evidence and management strategies from multiple specialties (urology, gynecology, pain medicine, gastroenterology, colorectal surgery, neurology, physiotherapy, and psychology). The 1 World Congress on Pelvic Pain met in 2013 to further collaborate on diagnosis and management of CPP. A multimodal clinical phenotype system has also been implemented to help understand cause and guide therapy. New classification systems allow for overlap of mechanisms between conditions and a multidisciplinary treatment approach.

Adolescent-Peer Relationships, Separation and Detachment from Parents, and Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors: Linkages and Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jager, Justin; Yuen, Cynthia X.; Putnick, Diane L.; Hendricks, Charlene; Bornstein, Marc H.

2015-01-01

Most research exploring the interplay between context and adolescent separation and detachment has focused on the family; in contrast, this investigation directs its attention outside of the family to peers. Utilizing a latent variable approach for modeling interactions and incorporating reports of behavioral adjustment from 14-year-old…

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene approach in three cities of Colombia.

PubMed

Barahona-Guzmán, Nayide; Rodríguez-Calderón, María Eugenia; Rosenthal, Victor D; Olarte, Narda; Villamil-Gómez, Wilmer; Rojas, Catherine; Rodríguez-Ferrer, Marena; Sarmiento-Villa, Guillermo; Lagares-Guzmán, Alfredo; Valderrama, Alberto; Menco, Antonio; Arrieta, Patrick; Dajud-Cassas, Luis Enrique; Mendoza, Mariela; Sabogal, Alejandra; Carvajal, Yulieth; Silva, Edwin

2014-02-01

To assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene (HH) approach in Colombia, and analyze predictors of poor HH compliance. An observational, prospective, interventional, before-and-after study was conducted from May 2003 through September 2010 in 10 intensive care units (ICUs) of six hospitals in three cities. The study was divided into two periods: a baseline and a follow-up period. Observations for HH compliance were done in each ICU during randomly selected 30-min periods. The multidimensional HH approach included: (1) administrative support, (2) supplies availability, (3) education and training, (4) reminders in the workplace, (5) process surveillance, and (6) performance feedback. A total of 13 187 opportunities for HH were observed. Overall HH compliance increased from 50% to 77% (relative risk 1.55, 95% confidence interval 1.43-1.68; p=0.0001). Multivariate and univariate analyses showed that several variables were significantly associated with poor HH compliance: males vs. females (67% vs. 77%; p=0.0001), physicians vs. nurses (59% vs. 78%; p<0.0001), and adult vs. pediatric ICUs (76% vs. 42%; p<0.001), among others. Adherence to HH was increased by 55% with the INICC approach. Programs targeted at improving HH in variables found to be predictors of poor compliance should be implemented. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach in five intensive care units in three cities of China.

PubMed

Su, D; Hu, B; Rosenthal, V D; Li, R; Hao, C; Pan, W; Tao, L; Gao, X; Liu, K

2015-07-01

To evaluate the impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene (HH) Approach in three hospitals in three cities of China, and analyze predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance. A prospective before-after study from May 2009 to December 2010 in five intensive care units members of the INICC in China. The study was divided into two periods: a 3-month baseline period and a follow-up period. A Multidimensional HH Approach was implemented, which included the following elements: 1- administrative support, 2- supplies availability, 3- education and training, 4- reminders in the workplace, 5- process surveillance and 6- performance feedback. Observations were done for HH compliance in each ICU, during randomly selected 30-min periods. A total of 2079 opportunities for HH were recorded. Overall HH compliance increased from 51.5% to 80.1% (95% CI 73.2-87.8; P = 0.004). Multivariate analysis indicated that several variables were significantly associated with poor HH compliance: females vs males (64% vs 55%; 95% CI 0.81-0.94; P = 0.0005), nurses vs physicians (64% vs 57%, P = 0.004), among others. Adherence to HH was increased significantly with the INICC multidimensional approach. Specific programs directed to improve HH in variables found to be predictors of poor HH compliance should be implemented. Copyright © 2015 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach, over 8 years, in 11 cities of Turkey

PubMed Central

Leblebicioglu, Hakan; Koksal, Iftihar; Akan, Özay Arıkan; Özgültekin, Asu; Kendirli, Tanil; Erben, Nurettin; Yalcin, Ata Nevzat; Ulusoy, Sercan; Sirmatel, Fatma; Ozdemir, Davut; Alp, Emine; Yıldızdaş, Dinçer; Esen, Saban; Ulger, Fatma; Dilek, Ahmet; Yilmaz, Hava; Yýlmaz, Gürdal; Kaya, Selçuk; Ulusoy, Hülya; Tulunay, Melek; Oral, Mehmet; Ünal, Necmettin; Turan, Güldem; Akgün, Nur; İnan, Asuman; Ince, Erdal; Karbuz, Adem; Çiftçi, Ergin; Taşyapar, Nevin; Güneş, Melek; Ozgunes, Ilhan; Usluer, Gaye; Turhan, Ozge; Gunay, Nurgul; Gumus, Eylul; Dursun, Oguz; Arda, Bilgin; Bacakoglu, Feza; Cengiz, Mustafa; Yilmaz, Leyla; Geyik, Mehmet Faruk; Şahin, Ahmet; Erdogan, Selvi; Kılıc, Aysegul Ulu; Horoz, Ozden Ozgur

2014-01-01

Aims: To evaluate the effectiveness of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) Multidimensional Hand Hygiene Approach in Turkey and analyse predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance. Design: An observational, prospective, interventional, before-and-after study was conducted from August 2003 to August 2011 in 12 intensive care units (ICU) of 12 hospitals in 11 cities. The study was divided into a baseline and a follow-up period and included random 30-minute observations for hand hygiene compliance in ICU. The hand hygiene approach included administrative support, supplies availability, education and training, reminders in the workplace, process surveillance, and performance feedback. Results: We observed 21,145 opportunities for hand hygiene. Overall hand hygiene compliance increased from 28.8% to 91% (95% CI 87.6–93.0, p 0.0001). Multivariate and univariate analyses showed that several variables were significantly associated with poor hand hygiene compliance: males vs. females (39% vs. 48%; 95% CI 0.79–0.84, p 0.0001), ancillary staff vs. physicians (35% vs. 46%, 95% CI 0.73–0.78, p 0.0001), and adult vs. pediatric ICUs (42% vs. 74%, 95% CI 0.54–0.60, p 0.0001). Conclusions: Adherence to hand hygiene was significantly increased with the INICC Hand Hygiene Approach. Specific programmes should be directed to improve hand hygiene in variables found to be predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance. PMID:28989420

An Evaluation of Unit and ½ Mass Correction Approaches as a ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rare earth elements (REE) and certain alkaline earths can produce M+2 interferences in ICP-MS because they have sufficiently low second ionization energies. Four REEs (150Sm, 150Nd, 156Gd and 156Dy) produce false positives on 75As and 78Se and 132Ba can produce a false positive on 66Zn. Currently, US EPA Method 200.8 does not address these as sources of false positives. Additionally, these M+2 false positives are typically enhanced if collision cell technology is utilized to reduce polyatomic interferences associated with ICP-MS detection. A preliminary evaluation indicates that instrumental tuning conditions can impact the observed M+2/M+1 ratio and in turn the false positives generated on Zn, As and Se. Both unit and ½ mass approaches will be evaluated to correct for these false positives relative to the benchmark concentrations estimates from a triple quadrupole ICP-MS using standard solutions. The impact of matrix on these M+2 corrections will be evaluated over multiple analysis days with a focus on evaluating internal standards that mirror the matrix induced shifts in the M+2 ion transmission. The goal of this evaluation is to move away from fixed M+2 corrective approaches and move towards sample specific approaches that mimic the sample matrix induced variability while attempting to address intra-day variability of the M+2 correction factors through the use of internal standards. Oral Presentation via webinar for EPA Laboratory Technical Informati

Improving dynamic phytoplankton reserve-utilization models with an indirect proxy for internal nitrogen.

PubMed

Malerba, Martino E; Heimann, Kirsten; Connolly, Sean R

2016-09-07

Ecologists have often used indirect proxies to represent variables that are difficult or impossible to measure directly. In phytoplankton, the internal concentration of the most limiting nutrient in a cell determines its growth rate. However, directly measuring the concentration of nutrients within cells is inaccurate, expensive, destructive, and time-consuming, substantially impairing our ability to model growth rates in nutrient-limited phytoplankton populations. The red chlorophyll autofluorescence (hereafter "red fluorescence") signal emitted by a cell is highly correlated with nitrogen quota in nitrogen-limited phytoplankton species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability of including flow cytometric red fluorescence as a proxy for internal nitrogen status to model phytoplankton growth rates. To this end, we used the classic Quota model and designed three approaches to calibrate its model parameters to data: where empirical observations on cell internal nitrogen quota were used to fit the model ("Nitrogen-Quota approach"), where quota dynamics were inferred only from changes in medium nutrient depletion and population density ("Virtual-Quota approach"), or where red fluorescence emission of a cell was used as an indirect proxy for its internal nitrogen quota ("Fluorescence-Quota approach"). Two separate analyses were carried out. In the first analysis, stochastic model simulations were parameterized from published empirical relationships and used to generate dynamics of phytoplankton communities reared under nitrogen-limited conditions. Quota models were fitted to the dynamics of each simulated species with the three different approaches and the performance of each model was compared. In the second analysis, we fit Quota models to laboratory time-series and we calculate the ability of each calibration approach to describe the observed trajectories of internal nitrogen quota in the culture. Results from both analyses concluded that the Fluorescence-Quota approach including per-cell red fluorescence as a proxy of internal nitrogen substantially improved the ability of Quota models to describe phytoplankton dynamics, while still accounting for the biologically important process of cell nitrogen storage. More broadly, many population models in ecology implicitly recognize the importance of accounting for storage mechanisms to describe the dynamics of individual organisms. Hence, the approach documented here with phytoplankton dynamics may also be useful for evaluating the potential of indirect proxies in other ecological systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining Big-Fish-Little-Pond-Effects across 49 Countries: A Multilevel Latent Variable Modelling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ze

2015-01-01

Using data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2007, this study examined the big-fish-little-pond-effects (BFLPEs) in 49 countries. In this study, the effect of math ability on math self-concept was decomposed into a within- and a between-level components using implicit mean centring and the complex data…

Management of change in health care organisations and human resource role.

PubMed

Carignani, V

2000-01-01

The paper is focused on the analysis of the most relevant factors necessary to manage change in health care organisations. The approach suggested is the Stakeholder one. According to this approach, the hospital's managers seem to be successful if they are able to satisfy people (internal and external stakeholders) that have a stake in the health care institution. The attention of the author is mainly focused on the internal forces that make the health care sector competitive and successful. In order to motivate internal human resources to accept change and to achieve the organisational targets two main methods can be suggested. The former is based on tangible variables and in particular on a fair reward system; the latter is built on intangible elements e.g. communication, negotiation, contracting, and organisational values sharing. Moreover, in order to cope with change it is important to develop the information technology management and to reengineer delivery processes, taking into consideration both the costs and benefits of these kinds of innovations.

The Structure of Character Strengths: Variable- and Person-Centered Approaches

PubMed Central

Najderska, Małgorzata; Cieciuch, Jan

2018-01-01

This article examines the structure of character strengths (Peterson and Seligman, 2004) following both variable-centered and person-centered approaches. We used the International Personality Item Pool-Values in Action (IPIP-VIA) questionnaire. The IPIP-VIA measures 24 character strengths and consists of 213 direct and reversed items. The present study was conducted in a heterogeneous group of N = 908 Poles (aged 18–78, M = 28.58). It was part of a validation project of a Polish version of the IPIP-VIA questionnaire. The variable-centered approach was used to examine the structure of character strengths on both the scale and item levels. The scale-level results indicated a four-factor structure that can be interpreted based on four of the five personality traits from the Big Five theory (excluding neuroticism). The item-level analysis suggested a slightly different and limited set of character strengths (17 not 24). After conducting a second-order analysis, a four-factor structure emerged, and three of the factors could be interpreted as being consistent with the scale-level factors. Three character strength profiles were found using the person-centered approach. Two of them were consistent with alpha and beta personality metatraits. The structure of character strengths can be described by using categories from the Five Factor Model of personality and metatraits. They form factors similar to some personality traits and occur in similar constellations as metatraits. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) the validation of IPIP-VIA conducted in variable-centered approach in a new research group (Poles) using a different measurement instrument; (2) introducing the person-centered approach to the study of the structure of character strengths. PMID:29515482

EULAR/ACR classification criteria for adult and juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies and their major subgroups: a methodology report

PubMed Central

Bottai, Matteo; Tjärnlund, Anna; Santoni, Giola; Werth, Victoria P; Pilkington, Clarissa; de Visser, Marianne; Alfredsson, Lars; Amato, Anthony A; Barohn, Richard J; Liang, Matthew H; Aggarwal, Rohit; Arnardottir, Snjolaug; Chinoy, Hector; Cooper, Robert G; Danko, Katalin; Dimachkie, Mazen M; Feldman, Brian M; García-De La Torre, Ignacio; Gordon, Patrick; Hayashi, Taichi; Katz, James D; Kohsaka, Hitoshi; Lachenbruch, Peter A; Lang, Bianca A; Li, Yuhui; Oddis, Chester V; Olesinka, Marzena; Reed, Ann M; Rutkowska-Sak, Lidia; Sanner, Helga; Selva-O’Callaghan, Albert; Wook Song, Yeong; Ytterberg, Steven R; Miller, Frederick W; Rider, Lisa G; Lundberg, Ingrid E; Amoruso, Maria

2017-01-01

Objective To describe the methodology used to develop new classification criteria for adult and juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs) and their major subgroups. Methods An international, multidisciplinary group of myositis experts produced a set of 93 potentially relevant variables to be tested for inclusion in the criteria. Rheumatology, dermatology, neurology and paediatric clinics worldwide collected data on 976 IIM cases (74% adults, 26% children) and 624 non-IIM comparator cases with mimicking conditions (82% adults, 18% children). The participating clinicians classified each case as IIM or non-IIM. Generally, the classification of any given patient was based on few variables, leaving remaining variables unmeasured. We investigated the strength of the association between all variables and between these and the disease status as determined by the physician. We considered three approaches: (1) a probability-score approach, (2) a sum-of-items approach criteria and (3) a classification-tree approach. Results The approaches yielded several candidate models that were scrutinised with respect to statistical performance and clinical relevance. The probability-score approach showed superior statistical performance and clinical practicability and was therefore preferred over the others. We developed a classification tree for subclassification of patients with IIM. A calculator for electronic devices, such as computers and smartphones, facilitates the use of the European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology (EULAR/ACR) classification criteria. Conclusions The new EULAR/ACR classification criteria provide a patient’s probability of having IIM for use in clinical and research settings. The probability is based on a score obtained by summing the weights associated with a set of criteria items. PMID:29177080

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene approach in 3 cities in Brazil.

PubMed

Medeiros, Eduardo A; Grinberg, Gorki; Rosenthal, Victor D; Bicudo Angelieri, Daniela; Buchner Ferreira, Iselde; Bauer Cechinel, Raquel; Zanandrea, Bruna Boaria; Rohnkohl, Carolina; Regalin, Marcos; Spessatto, Jamile Leda; Scopel Pasini, Ricardo; Ferla, Shaline

2015-01-01

Hand hygiene (HH) is the main tool for cross-infection prevention, but adherence to guidelines is low in limited-resource countries, and there are not available published data from Brazil. This is an observational, prospective, interventional, before-and-after study conducted in 4 intensive care units in 4 hospitals, which are members of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC), from June 2006-April 2008. The study was divided into a 3-month baseline period and a follow-up period. A multidimensional HH approach was introduced, which included administrative support, supplies availability, education and training, reminders in the workplace, process surveillance, and performance feedback. Health care workers were observed for HH practices in each intensive care unit during randomly selected 30-minute periods. We recorded 4,837 opportunities for HH, with an overall HH compliance that increased from 27%-58% (P < .01). Multivariate analysis showed that some variables were associated with poor HH compliance: men versus women (49% vs 38%, P < .001), nurses versus doctors (55% vs 48%, P < .02), among others. With the implementation of the INICC approach, adherence to HH was significantly increased. Programs should be aimed at improving HH in variables found to be predictors of poor HH compliance. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of international remittances in health outcomes in Ecuador: prevention and response to shocks.

PubMed

Ponce, Juan; Olivié, Iliana; Onofa, Mercedes

2011-01-01

This article evaluates the impact of remittances on health outcomes in Ecuador using an instrumental-variables approach. Although we do not find significant impacts on long-term child health variables, we find that remittances do have an impact on health expenditures, and on some preventive issues such as de-worming and vaccination. In addition, we find significant effects of remittances on medicine expenditures when illness occurs. In this regard, remittances are used for both preventive and emergency situations. Interestingly, we also find a significant and positive effect of remittances on health knowledge.

Modeling of aircraft unsteady aerodynamic characteristics. Part 1: Postulated models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Vladislav; Noderer, Keith D.

1994-01-01

A short theoretical study of aircraft aerodynamic model equations with unsteady effects is presented. The aerodynamic forces and moments are expressed in terms of indicial functions or internal state variables. The first representation leads to aircraft integro-differential equations of motion; the second preserves the state-space form of the model equations. The formulations of unsteady aerodynamics is applied in two examples. The first example deals with a one-degree-of-freedom harmonic motion about one of the aircraft body axes. In the second example, the equations for longitudinal short-period motion are developed. In these examples, only linear aerodynamic terms are considered. The indicial functions are postulated as simple exponentials and the internal state variables are governed by linear, time-invariant, first-order differential equations. It is shown that both approaches to the modeling of unsteady aerodynamics lead to identical models.

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets. Best Practices from International Experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, Jaquelin; Bird, Lori; Heeter, Jenny

Many countries—reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems—are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This document summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. There is no one-size-fits-all approach; each country studied has crafted its own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by themore » countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. This study also emphatically underscores the value of countries sharing their experiences. The more diverse and robust the experience base from which a country can draw, the more likely that it will be able to implement an appropriate, optimized, and system-wide approach.« less

An automated approach to design of solid rockets utilizing a special internal ballistics model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sforzini, R. H.

1980-01-01

A pattern search technique is presented, which is utilized in a computer program that minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences, at various times, between a desired thrust-time trace and that calculated with a special mathematical internal ballistics model of a solid propellant rocket motor. The program is demonstrated by matching the thrust-time trace obtained from static tests of the first Space Shuttle SRM starting with input values of 10 variables which are, in general, 10% different from the as-built SRM. It is concluded that an excellent match is obtained.

Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.

2017-12-01

The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to simulate southern African summer rainfall. This multi-timescale procedure shows much better skills in simulating decadal timescales of variability compared to commonly used statistical downscaling approaches.

Multifractal Properties of Process Control Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domański, Paweł D.

2017-06-01

Control system is an inevitable element of any industrial installation. Its quality affects overall process performance significantly. The assessment, whether control system needs any improvement or not, requires relevant and constructive measures. There are various methods, like time domain based, Minimum Variance, Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistical factors, fractal and entropy indexes. Majority of approaches use time series of control variables. They are able to cover many phenomena. But process complexities and human interventions cause effects that are hardly visible for standard measures. It is shown that the signals originating from industrial installations have multifractal properties and such an analysis may extend standard approach to further observations. The work is based on industrial and simulation data. The analysis delivers additional insight into the properties of control system and the process. It helps to discover internal dependencies and human factors, which are hardly detectable.

Modelling lecturer performance index of private university in Tulungagung by using survival analysis with multivariate adaptive regression spline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasyim, M.; Prastyo, D. D.

2018-03-01

Survival analysis performs relationship between independent variables and survival time as dependent variable. In fact, not all survival data can be recorded completely by any reasons. In such situation, the data is called censored data. Moreover, several model for survival analysis requires assumptions. One of the approaches in survival analysis is nonparametric that gives more relax assumption. In this research, the nonparametric approach that is employed is Multivariate Regression Adaptive Spline (MARS). This study is aimed to measure the performance of private university’s lecturer. The survival time in this study is duration needed by lecturer to obtain their professional certificate. The results show that research activities is a significant factor along with developing courses material, good publication in international or national journal, and activities in research collaboration.

Alexithymia and psychosocial problems among Italian preadolescents. A latent class analysis approach.

PubMed

Mannarini, Stefania; Balottin, Laura; Toldo, Irene; Gatta, Michela

2016-10-01

The study, conducted on Italian preadolscents aged 11 to 13 belonging to the general population, aims to investigate the relationship between the emotional functioning, namely, alexithymia, and the risk of developing behavioral and emotional problems measured using the Strength and Difficulty Questionnaire. The latent class analysis approach allowed to identify two latent variables, accounting for the internalizing (emotional symptoms and difficulties in emotional awareness) and for the externalizing problems (conduct problems and hyperactivity, problematic relationships with peers, poor prosocial behaviors and externally oriented thinking). The two latent variables featured two latent classes: the difficulty in dealing with problems and the strength to face problems that was representative of most of the healthy participants with specific gender differences. Along with the analysis of psychopathological behaviors, the study of resilience and strengths can prove to be a key step in order to develop valuable preventive approaches to tackle psychiatric disorders. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring the Impact of Different Input Data Types on Soil Variable Estimation Using the ICRAF-ISRIC Global Soil Spectral Database.

PubMed

Aitkenhead, Matt J; Black, Helaina I J

2018-02-01

Using the International Centre for Research in Agroforestry-International Soil Reference and Information Centre (ICRAF-ISRIC) global soil spectroscopy database, models were developed to estimate a number of soil variables using different input data types. These input types included: (1) site data only; (2) visible-near-infrared (Vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy only; (3) combined site and Vis-NIR data; (4) red-green-blue (RGB) color data only; and (5) combined site and RGB color data. The models produced variable estimation accuracy, with RGB only being generally worst and spectroscopy plus site being best. However, we showed that for certain variables, estimation accuracy levels achieved with the "site plus RGB input data" were sufficiently good to provide useful estimates (r 2  > 0.7). These included major elements (Ca, Si, Al, Fe), organic carbon, and cation exchange capacity. Estimates for bulk density, contrast-to-noise (C/N), and P were moderately good, but K was not well estimated using this model type. For the "spectra plus site" model, many more variables were well estimated, including many that are important indicators for agricultural productivity and soil health. Sum of cation, electrical conductivity, Si, Ca, and Al oxides, and C/N ratio were estimated using this approach with r 2 values > 0.9. This work provides a mechanism for identifying the cost-effectiveness of using different model input data, with associated costs, for estimating soil variables to required levels of accuracy.

On the use of internal state variables in thermoviscoplastic constitutive equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Beek, J. M.

1985-01-01

The general theory of internal state variables are reviewed to apply it to inelastic metals in use in high temperature environments. In this process, certain constraints and clarifications will be made regarding internal state variables. It is shown that the Helmholtz free energy can be utilized to construct constitutive equations which are appropriate for metallic superalloys. Internal state variables are shown to represent locally averaged measures of dislocation arrangement, dislocation density, and intergranular fracture. The internal state variable model is demonstrated to be a suitable framework for comparison of several currently proposed models for metals and can therefore be used to exhibit history dependence, nonlinearity, and rate as well as temperature sensitivity.

Approach for computing 1D fracture density: application to fracture corridor characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viseur, Sophie; Chatelée, Sebastien; Akriche, Clement; Lamarche, Juliette

2016-04-01

Fracture density is an important parameter for characterizing fractured reservoirs. Many stochastic simulation algorithms that generate fracture networks indeed rely on the determination of a fracture density on volumes (P30) to populate the reservoir zones with individual fracture surfaces. However, only 1D fracture density (P10) are available from subsurface data and it is then important to be able to accurately estimate this entity. In this paper, a novel approach is proposed to estimate fracture density from scan-line or well data. This method relies on regression, hypothesis testing and clustering techniques. The objective of the proposed approach is to highlight zones where fracture density are statistically very different or similar. This technique has been applied on both synthetic and real case studies. These studies concern fracture corridors, which are particular tectonic features that are generally difficult to characterize from subsurface data. These tectonic features are still not well known and studies must be conducted to better understand their internal spatial organization and variability. The presented synthetic cases aim at showing the ability of the approach to extract known features. The real case study illustrates how this approach allows the internal spatial organization of fracture corridors to be characterized.

Current and future methods for evaluating the allergenic potential of proteins: international workshop report 23-25 October 2007.

PubMed

Thomas, Karluss; Herouet-Guicheney, Corinne; Ladics, Gregory; McClain, Scott; MacIntosh, Susan; Privalle, Laura; Woolhiser, Mike

2008-09-01

The International Life Science Institute's Health and Environmental Sciences Institute's Protein Allergenicity Technical Committee hosted an international workshop October 23-25, 2007, in Nice, France, to review and discuss existing and emerging methods and techniques for improving the current weight-of-evidence approach for evaluating the potential allergenicity of novel proteins. The workshop included over 40 international experts from government, industry, and academia. Their expertise represented a range of disciplines including immunology, chemistry, molecular biology, bioinformatics, and toxicology. Among participants, there was consensus that (1) current bioinformatic approaches are highly conservative; (2) advances in bioinformatics using structural comparisons of proteins may be helpful as the availability of structural data increases; (3) proteomics may prove useful for monitoring the natural variability in a plant's proteome and assessing the impact of biotechnology transformations on endogenous levels of allergens, but only when analytical techniques have been standardized and additional data are available on the natural variation of protein expression in non-transgenic bred plants; (4) basophil response assays are promising techniques, but need additional evaluation around specificity, sensitivity, and reproducibility; (5) additional research is required to develop and validate an animal model for the purpose of predicting protein allergenicity.

Evaluation of Normalization Methods to Pave the Way Towards Large-Scale LC-MS-Based Metabolomics Profiling Experiments

PubMed Central

Valkenborg, Dirk; Baggerman, Geert; Vanaerschot, Manu; Witters, Erwin; Dujardin, Jean-Claude; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Berg, Maya

2013-01-01

Abstract Combining liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics experiments that were collected over a long period of time remains problematic due to systematic variability between LC-MS measurements. Until now, most normalization methods for LC-MS data are model-driven, based on internal standards or intermediate quality control runs, where an external model is extrapolated to the dataset of interest. In the first part of this article, we evaluate several existing data-driven normalization approaches on LC-MS metabolomics experiments, which do not require the use of internal standards. According to variability measures, each normalization method performs relatively well, showing that the use of any normalization method will greatly improve data-analysis originating from multiple experimental runs. In the second part, we apply cyclic-Loess normalization to a Leishmania sample. This normalization method allows the removal of systematic variability between two measurement blocks over time and maintains the differential metabolites. In conclusion, normalization allows for pooling datasets from different measurement blocks over time and increases the statistical power of the analysis, hence paving the way to increase the scale of LC-MS metabolomics experiments. From our investigation, we recommend data-driven normalization methods over model-driven normalization methods, if only a few internal standards were used. Moreover, data-driven normalization methods are the best option to normalize datasets from untargeted LC-MS experiments. PMID:23808607

Quantifying Temporal and Spatial Variability of Nearshore Processes Around a Nearshore Kelp Forest Rocky Reef with the Kelp Forest Array Cabled Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squibb, M. E.; Monismith, S. G.; Woodson, C. B.; Dunckley, J. F.; Martone, R. G.; Litvin, S. Y.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic data from the Kelp Forest Array (KFA) cabled observatory is used to determine the frequency, intensity, duration and seasonal variation of low-pH and low-DO events, and relate them to temperature and density variability associated with internal waves and upwelling. We employ standard time series analyses to determine the frequency distributions of variance in pH, DO, and T and coherence analysis to identify frequency dependent co-variability among the three variables. Statistical analysis is used to identify the probability of a hypoxic event of given strength (e.g., DO < 4.5 mg/l17) lasting for a given duration and compare this between habitats. Joint probability distribution functions of low-DO are computed from the data in the same way. This approach can be used to identify the likelihood of extreme events with respect to specific DO thresholds of physiological relevance for species of interest in MPAs. The time scales and vertical structure of velocities, temperature, and dissolved oxygen associated with low-DO events are also analyzed to determine the dominant transport mechanisms for these events and how they are tied to internal shoaling waves prevalent in the southern part of Monterey Bay. The structure and evolution of shoaling internal "bores" are also shown to substantially alter the background nearshore dynamics with their arrival and relaxation. Our work in 2015 is contextualized by multi-year data sets from the three previous years which contain observations of both upwelling and non-upwelling periods.

A longitudinal investigation of children internationally adopted at school age.

PubMed

Helder, Emily J; Mulder, Elizabeth; Gunnoe, Marjorie Linder

2016-01-01

Most existing research on children adopted internationally has focused on those adopted as infants and toddlers. The current study longitudinally tracked several outcomes, including cognitive, behavioral, emotional, attachment, and family functioning, in 25 children who had been internationally adopted at school age (M = 7.7 years old at adoption, SD = 3.4, range = 4–15 years). We examined the incidence of clinically significant impairments, significant change in outcomes over the three study points, and variables that predicted outcomes over time. Clinically significant impairments in sustained attention, full-scale intelligence, reading, language, executive functioning, externalizing problems, and parenting stress were common, with language and executive functioning impairments present at higher levels in the current study compared with past research focusing on children adopted as infants and toddlers. Over the three study points, significant improvements across most cognitive areas and attachment functioning were observed, though significant worsening in executive functioning and internalizing problems was present. Adoptive family-specific variables, such as greater maternal education, smaller family size, a parenting approach that encouraged age-expected behaviors, home schooling, and being the sole adopted child in the family were associated with greater improvement across several cognitive outcomes. In contrast, decreased parenting stress was predicted by having multiple adopted children and smaller family sizes were associated with greater difficulties with executive functioning. Child-specific variables were also linked to outcomes, with girls displaying worse attachment and poorer cognitive performance and with less time in orphanage care resulting in greater adoption success. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed.

Bounds on internal state variables in viscoplasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Alan D.

1993-01-01

A typical viscoplastic model will introduce up to three types of internal state variables in order to properly describe transient material behavior; they are as follows: the back stress, the yield stress, and the drag strength. Different models employ different combinations of these internal variables--their selection and description of evolution being largely dependent on application and material selection. Under steady-state conditions, the internal variables cease to evolve and therefore become related to the external variables (stress and temperature) through simple functional relationships. A physically motivated hypothesis is presented that links the kinetic equation of viscoplasticity with that of creep under steady-state conditions. From this hypothesis one determines how the internal variables relate to one another at steady state, but most importantly, one obtains bounds on the magnitudes of stress and back stress, and on the yield stress and drag strength.

SU-E-T-56: A Novel Approach to Computing Expected Value and Variance of Point Dose From Non-Gated Radiotherapy Delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, S; Zhu, X; Zhang, M

Purpose: Randomness in patient internal organ motion phase at the beginning of non-gated radiotherapy delivery may introduce uncertainty to dose received by the patient. Concerns of this dose deviation from the planned one has motivated many researchers to study this phenomenon although unified theoretical framework for computing it is still missing. This study was conducted to develop such framework for analyzing the effect. Methods: Two reasonable assumptions were made: a) patient internal organ motion is stationary and periodic; b) no special arrangement is made to start a non -gated radiotherapy delivery at any specific phase of patient internal organ motion.more » A statistical ensemble was formed consisting of patient’s non-gated radiotherapy deliveries at all equally possible initial organ motion phases. To characterize the patient received dose, statistical ensemble average method is employed to derive formulae for two variables: expected value and variance of dose received by a patient internal point from a non-gated radiotherapy delivery. Fourier Series was utilized to facilitate our analysis. Results: According to our formulae, the two variables can be computed from non-gated radiotherapy generated dose rate time sequences at the point’s corresponding locations on fixed phase 3D CT images sampled evenly in time over one patient internal organ motion period. The expected value of point dose is simply the average of the doses to the point’s corresponding locations on the fixed phase CT images. The variance can be determined by time integration in terms of Fourier Series coefficients of the dose rate time sequences on the same fixed phase 3D CT images. Conclusion: Given a non-gated radiotherapy delivery plan and patient’s 4D CT study, our novel approach can predict the expected value and variance of patient radiation dose. We expect it to play a significant role in determining both quality and robustness of patient non-gated radiotherapy plan.« less

Two Archetypes of Motor Control Research.

PubMed

Latash, Mark L

2010-07-01

This reply to the Commentaries is focused on two archetypes of motor control research, one based on physics and physiology and the other based on control theory and ideas of neural computations. The former approach, represented by the equilibrium-point hypothesis, strives to discover the physical laws and salient physiological variables that make purposeful coordinated movements possible. The latter approach, represented by the ideas of internal models and optimal control, tries to apply methods of control developed for man-made inanimate systems to the human body. Specific issues related to control with subthreshold membrane depolarization, motor redundancy, and the idea of synergies are briefly discussed.

A Numerical-Analytical Approach to Modeling the Axial Rotation of the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markov, Yu. G.; Perepelkin, V. V.; Rykhlova, L. V.; Filippova, A. S.

2018-04-01

A model for the non-uniform axial rotation of the Earth is studied using a celestial-mechanical approach and numerical simulations. The application of an approximate model containing a small number of parameters to predict variations of the axial rotation velocity of the Earth over short time intervals is justified. This approximate model is obtained by averaging variable parameters that are subject to small variations due to non-stationarity of the perturbing factors. The model is verified and compared with predictions over a long time interval published by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS).

Supernovae study: Context of the 4-m International Liquid Mirror Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Brajesh; Pandey, Shashi Bhushan; Pandey, Kanhaiya Lal; Anapuma, Gadiyara Chakrapani; Surdej, Jean

2018-04-01

The upcoming 4-m International Liquid Mirror Telescope (ILMT) facility will perform deep imaging (in single scan g' 22 mag) of a narrow strip of sky each clear night in the Time Delayed Integration mode. A cadence of one day observation will provide unique opportunities to discover different types of supernovae (SNe) along with many other types of variable sources. We present the approach to discover SNe with the 4-m ILMT and discuss the follow-up strategy in the context of other existing observational facilities. The advantages of liquid mirror telescope observations over the traditional glass mirror telescopes are also discussed.

Multivariate Bayesian variable selection exploiting dependence structure among outcomes: Application to air pollution effects on DNA methylation.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu Ha; Tadesse, Mahlet G; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Schwartz, Joel; Coull, Brent A

2017-03-01

The analysis of multiple outcomes is becoming increasingly common in modern biomedical studies. It is well-known that joint statistical models for multiple outcomes are more flexible and more powerful than fitting a separate model for each outcome; they yield more powerful tests of exposure or treatment effects by taking into account the dependence among outcomes and pooling evidence across outcomes. It is, however, unlikely that all outcomes are related to the same subset of covariates. Therefore, there is interest in identifying exposures or treatments associated with particular outcomes, which we term outcome-specific variable selection. In this work, we propose a variable selection approach for multivariate normal responses that incorporates not only information on the mean model, but also information on the variance-covariance structure of the outcomes. The approach effectively leverages evidence from all correlated outcomes to estimate the effect of a particular covariate on a given outcome. To implement this strategy, we develop a Bayesian method that builds a multivariate prior for the variable selection indicators based on the variance-covariance of the outcomes. We show via simulation that the proposed variable selection strategy can boost power to detect subtle effects without increasing the probability of false discoveries. We apply the approach to the Normative Aging Study (NAS) epigenetic data and identify a subset of five genes in the asthma pathway for which gene-specific DNA methylations are associated with exposures to either black carbon, a marker of traffic pollution, or sulfate, a marker of particles generated by power plants. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Adolescent-Peer Relationships, Separation and Detachment from Parents, and Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors: Linkages and Interactions

PubMed Central

Jager, Justin; Yuen, Cynthia X.; Putnick, Diane L.; Hendricks, Charlene; Bornstein, Marc H.

2018-01-01

Most research exploring the interplay between context and adolescent separation and detachment has focused on the family; in contrast, this investigation directs its attention outside of the family to peers. Utilizing a latent variable approach for modeling interactions and incorporating reports of behavioral adjustment from 14-year-old adolescents (N = 190) and their mothers, we examine how separation and detachment relate to adolescent peer relationships, and whether peer relationships moderate how separation and detachment relate to adolescent internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Positive peer relationships were both associated with lower detachment and sharply attenuated relations between detachment and higher adolescent internalizing and externalizing. Separation from parents was unrelated to peer relationships, and regardless of whether peer relationships were positive, separation was not related to adolescent internalizing and externalizing. We integrate these findings with those from family-focused investigations and discuss their substantive and clinical implications. PMID:29527086

TIMSS 2011 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Student, Home, Teacher, and School Questionnaire Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foy, Pierre, Ed.; Arora, Alka, Ed.; Stanco, Gabrielle M., Ed.

2013-01-01

This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TIMSS 2011 data files that are based on background questionnaire variables. These variables were used to report background data in the TIMSS 2011 International Results in Mathematics and TIMSS 2011 International Results in Science reports, and are made available…

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration.

PubMed

Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

2016-04-01

Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe.

Predicting muscularity-related behavior, emotions, and cognitions in men: The role of psychological need thwarting, drive for muscularity, and mesomorphic internalization.

PubMed

Edwards, Christian; Tod, David; Molnar, Gyozo; Markland, David

2016-09-01

We examine the relationships that internalization, need thwarting (NT), and drive for muscularity (DFM), along with their interactions, had with weightlifting, muscle dissatisfaction (MD), and muscle-related-worry (MRW). A sample of 552 men (MAge=20.5 years, SD=3.1) completed the Psychological Need Thwarting Scale, the Internalization subscale of the male version of the Sociocultural Attitudes Towards Appearance Questionnaire, the Drive for Muscularity Scale-Attitudes subscale, the Male Body Attitudes Scale-Muscularity subscale, the Body Change Inventory-Worry subscale, and an inventory assessing weightlifting behavior. DFM significantly predicted weightlifting, MRW, and MD. Internalization significantly predicted weightlifting and MRW. NT significantly predicted weightlifting and MD, and its relationship with MRW approached significance. The interaction terms did not predict weightlifting or MRW. The NT/DFM and NT/Internalization interaction terms predicted MD. These results highlight the role of NT in predicting appearance variables in men. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TEDS-M 2008 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 3: Variables Derived from the Educator and Future Teacher Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brese, Falk, Ed.

2012-01-01

This supplement contains documentation on all the derived variables contained in the TEDS-M educator and future teacher data files. These derived variables were used to report data in the TEDS-M international reports. The variables that constitute the scales and indices are made available as part of the TEDS-M International Database to be used in…

Guidelines for the standardization of preanalytic variables for blood-based biomarker studies in Alzheimer’s disease research

PubMed Central

Gupta, Veer; Henriksen, Kim; Edwards, Melissa; Jeromin, Andreas; Lista, Simone; Bazenet, Chantal; Soares, Holly; Lovestone, Simon; Hampel, Harald; Montine, Thomas; Blennow, Kaj; Foroud, Tatiana; Carrillo, Maria; Graff-Radford, Neill; Laske, Christoph; Breteler, Monique; Shaw, Leslie; Trojanowski, John Q.; Schupf, Nicole; Rissman, Robert A.; Fagan, Anne M.; Oberoi, Pankaj; Umek, Robert; Weiner, Michael W.; Grammas, Paula; Posner, Holly; Martins, Ralph

2015-01-01

The lack of readily available biomarkers is a significant hindrance towards progressing to effective therapeutic and preventative strategies for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Blood-based biomarkers have potential to overcome access and cost barriers and greatly facilitate advanced neuroimaging and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker approaches. Despite the fact that preanalytical processing is the largest source of variability in laboratory testing, there are no currently available standardized preanalytical guidelines. The current international working group provides the initial starting point for such guidelines for standardized operating procedures (SOPs). It is anticipated that these guidelines will be updated as additional research findings become available. The statement provides (1) a synopsis of selected preanalytical methods utilized in many international AD cohort studies, (2) initial draft guidelines/SOPs for preanalytical methods, and (3) a list of required methodological information and protocols to be made available for publications in the field in order to foster cross-validation across cohorts and laboratories. PMID:25282381

The impact of sedimentary anisotropy on solute mixing in stacked scour-pool structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeremy P.; Haslauer, Claus P.; Cirpka, Olaf A.

2017-04-01

The spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity is known to have a strong impact on solute spreading and mixing. In most investigations, its local anisotropy has been neglected. Recent studies have shown that spatially varying orientation in sedimentary anisotropy can lead to twisting flow enhancing transverse mixing, but most of these studies used geologically implausible geometries. We use an object-based approach to generate stacked scour-pool structures with either isotropic or anisotropic filling which are typically reported in glacial outwash deposits. We analyze how spatially variable isotropic conductivity and variation of internal anisotropy in these features impacts transverse plume deformation and both longitudinal and transverse spreading and mixing. In five test cases, either the scalar values of conductivity or the spatial orientation of its anisotropy is varied between the scour-pool structures. Based on 100 random configurations, we compare the variability of velocity components, stretching and folding metrics, advective travel-time distributions, one and two-particle statistics in advective-dispersive transport, and the flux-related dilution indices for steady state advective-dispersive transport among the five test cases. Variation in the orientation of internal anisotropy causes strong variability in the lateral velocity components, which leads to deformation in transverse directions and enhances transverse mixing, whereas it hardly affects the variability of the longitudinal velocity component and thus longitudinal spreading and mixing. The latter is controlled by the spatial variability in the scalar values of hydraulic conductivity. Our results demonstrate that sedimentary anisotropy is important for transverse mixing, whereas it may be neglected when considering longitudinal spreading and mixing.

SteamTables: An approach of multiple variable sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Mahendra P.

2009-10-01

Using the IAPWS-95 formulation, an ActiveX component SteamTablesIIE in Visual Basic 6.0 is developed to calculate thermodynamic properties of pure water as a function of two independent intensive variables: (1) temperature ( T) or pressure ( P) and (2) T, P, volume ( V), internal energy ( U), enthalpy ( H), entropy ( S) or Gibbs free energy ( G). The second variable cannot be the same as variable 1. Additionally, it calculates the properties along the separation boundaries (i.e., sublimation, saturation, critical isochor, ice I melting, ice III to ice IIV melting and minimum volume curves) considering the input parameter as T or P for the variable 1. SteamTablesIIE is an extension of the ActiveX component SteamTables implemented earlier considering T (190 to 2000 K) and P (3.23×10 -8 to 10000 MPa) as independent variables. It takes into account the following 27 intensive properties: temperature ( T), pressure ( P), fraction, state, volume ( V), density ( Den), compressibility factor ( Z0), internal energy ( U), enthalpy ( H), Gibbs free energy ( G), Helmholtz free energy ( A), entropy ( S), heat capacity at constant pressure ( C p), heat capacity at constant volume ( C v), coefficient of thermal expansion ( CTE), isothermal compressibility ( Z iso), speed of sound ( VelS), partial derivative of P with T at constant V ( dPdT), partial derivative of T with V at constant P ( dTdV), partial derivative of V with P at constant T ( dVdP), Joule-Thomson coefficient ( JTC), isothermal throttling coefficient ( IJTC), viscosity ( Vis), thermal conductivity ( ThrmCond), surface tension ( SurfTen), Prandtl number ( PrdNum) and dielectric constant ( DielCons).

Impact of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene approach over 13 years in 51 cities of 19 limited-resource countries from Latin America, Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Victor D; Pawar, Mandakini; Leblebicioglu, Hakan; Navoa-Ng, Josephine Anne; Villamil-Gómez, Wilmer; Armas-Ruiz, Alberto; Cuéllar, Luis E; Medeiros, Eduardo A; Mitrev, Zan; Gikas, Achilleas; Yang, Yun; Ahmed, Altaf; Kanj, Souha S; Dueñas, Lourdes; Gurskis, Vaidotas; Mapp, Trudell; Guanche-Garcell, Humberto; Fernández-Hidalgo, Rosalía; Kübler, Andrzej

2013-04-01

To assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the International Nosocomial Infection Control Consortium (INICC) multidimensional hand hygiene approach in 19 limited-resource countries and to analyze predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance. An observational, prospective, cohort, interventional, before-and-after study from April 1999 through December 2011. The study was divided into 2 periods: a 3-month baseline period and a 7-year follow-up period. Ninety-nine intensive care unit (ICU) members of the INICC in Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, El Salvador, Greece, India, Lebanon, Lithuania, Macedonia, Mexico, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, and Turkey. Healthcare workers at 99 ICU members of the INICC. A multidimensional hand hygiene approach was used, including (1) administrative support, (2) supplies availability, (3) education and training, (4) reminders in the workplace, (5) process surveillance, and (6) performance feedback. Observations were made for hand hygiene compliance in each ICU, during randomly selected 30-minute periods. A total of 149,727 opportunities for hand hygiene were observed. Overall hand hygiene compliance increased from 48.3% to 71.4% ([Formula: see text]). Univariate analysis indicated that several variables were significantly associated with poor hand hygiene compliance, including males versus females (63% vs 70%; [Formula: see text]), physicians versus nurses (62% vs 72%; [Formula: see text]), and adult versus neonatal ICUs (67% vs 81%; [Formula: see text]), among others. Adherence to hand hygiene increased by 48% with the INICC approach. Specific programs directed to improve hand hygiene for variables found to be predictors of poor hand hygiene compliance should be implemented.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Fast computation of the electrolyte-concentration transfer function of a lithium-ion cell model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Albert; Plett, Gregory L.; Trimboli, M. Scott

2017-08-01

One approach to creating physics-based reduced-order models (ROMs) of battery-cell dynamics requires first generating linearized Laplace-domain transfer functions of all cell internal electrochemical variables of interest. Then, the resulting infinite-dimensional transfer functions can be reduced by various means in order to find an approximate low-dimensional model. These methods include Padé approximation or the Discrete-Time Realization algorithm. In a previous article, Lee and colleagues developed a transfer function of the electrolyte concentration for a porous-electrode pseudo-two-dimensional lithium-ion cell model. Their approach used separation of variables and Sturm-Liouville theory to compute an infinite-series solution to the transfer function, which they then truncated to a finite number of terms for reasons of practicality. Here, we instead use a variation-of-parameters approach to arrive at a different representation of the identical solution that does not require a series expansion. The primary benefits of the new approach are speed of computation of the transfer function and the removal of the requirement to approximate the transfer function by truncating the number of terms evaluated. Results show that the speedup of the new method can be more than 3800.

A Rule Based Approach to ISS Interior Volume Control and Layout

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peacock, Brian; Maida, Jim; Fitts, David; Dory, Jonathan

2001-01-01

Traditional human factors design involves the development of human factors requirements based on a desire to accommodate a certain percentage of the intended user population. As the product is developed human factors evaluation involves comparison between the resulting design and the specifications. Sometimes performance metrics are involved that allow leniency in the design requirements given that the human performance result is satisfactory. Clearly such approaches may work but they give rise to uncertainty and negotiation. An alternative approach is to adopt human factors design rules that articulate a range of each design continuum over which there are varying outcome expectations and interactions with other variables, including time. These rules are based on a consensus of human factors specialists, designers, managers and customers. The International Space Station faces exactly this challenge in interior volume control, which is based on anthropometric, performance and subjective preference criteria. This paper describes the traditional approach and then proposes a rule-based alternative. The proposed rules involve spatial, temporal and importance dimensions. If successful this rule-based concept could be applied to many traditional human factors design variables and could lead to a more effective and efficient contribution of human factors input to the design process.

Performance indicators related to points scoring and winning in international rugby sevens.

PubMed

Higham, Dean G; Hopkins, Will G; Pyne, David B; Anson, Judith M

2014-05-01

Identification of performance indicators related to scoring points and winning is needed to inform tactical approaches to international rugby sevens competition. The aim of this study was to characterize team performance indicators in international rugby sevens and quantify their relationship with a team's points scored and probability of winning. Performance indicators of each team during 196 matches of the 2011/2012 International Rugby Board Sevens World Series were modeled for their linear relationships with points scored and likelihood of winning within (changes in team values from match to match) and between (differences between team values averaged over all matches) teams. Relationships were evaluated as the change and difference in points and probability of winning associated with a two within- and between-team standard deviations increase in performance indicator values. Inferences about relationships were assessed using a smallest meaningful difference of one point and a 10% probability of a team changing the outcome of a close match. All indicators exhibited high within-team match-to-match variability (intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.00 to 0.23). Excluding indicators representing points-scoring actions or events occurring on average less than once per match, 13 of 17 indicators had substantial clear within-team relationships with points scored and/or likelihood of victory. Relationships between teams were generally similar in magnitude but unclear. Tactics that increase points scoring and likelihood of winning should be based on greater ball possession, fewer rucks, mauls, turnovers, penalties and free kicks, and limited passing. Key pointsSuccessful international rugby sevens teams tend to maintain ball possession; more frequently avoid taking the ball into contact; concede fewer turnovers, penalties and free kicks; retain possession in scrums, rucks and mauls; and limit passing the ball.Selected performance indicators may be used to evaluate team performances and plan more effective tactical approaches to competition.There is greater match-to-match variability in performance indicator values within than between international rugby sevens teams.The priorities for a rugby sevens team's technical and tactical preparation should reflect the magnitudes of the relationships between performance indicators, points scoring and the likelihood of winning.

Performance Indicators Related to Points Scoring and Winning in International Rugby Sevens

PubMed Central

Higham, Dean G.; Hopkins, Will G.; Pyne, David B.; Anson, Judith M.

2014-01-01

Identification of performance indicators related to scoring points and winning is needed to inform tactical approaches to international rugby sevens competition. The aim of this study was to characterize team performance indicators in international rugby sevens and quantify their relationship with a team’s points scored and probability of winning. Performance indicators of each team during 196 matches of the 2011/2012 International Rugby Board Sevens World Series were modeled for their linear relationships with points scored and likelihood of winning within (changes in team values from match to match) and between (differences between team values averaged over all matches) teams. Relationships were evaluated as the change and difference in points and probability of winning associated with a two within- and between-team standard deviations increase in performance indicator values. Inferences about relationships were assessed using a smallest meaningful difference of one point and a 10% probability of a team changing the outcome of a close match. All indicators exhibited high within-team match-to-match variability (intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.00 to 0.23). Excluding indicators representing points-scoring actions or events occurring on average less than once per match, 13 of 17 indicators had substantial clear within-team relationships with points scored and/or likelihood of victory. Relationships between teams were generally similar in magnitude but unclear. Tactics that increase points scoring and likelihood of winning should be based on greater ball possession, fewer rucks, mauls, turnovers, penalties and free kicks, and limited passing. Key points Successful international rugby sevens teams tend to maintain ball possession; more frequently avoid taking the ball into contact; concede fewer turnovers, penalties and free kicks; retain possession in scrums, rucks and mauls; and limit passing the ball. Selected performance indicators may be used to evaluate team performances and plan more effective tactical approaches to competition. There is greater match-to-match variability in performance indicator values within than between international rugby sevens teams. The priorities for a rugby sevens team’s technical and tactical preparation should reflect the magnitudes of the relationships between performance indicators, points scoring and the likelihood of winning. PMID:24790490

A Bayesian Retrieval of Greenland Ice Sheet Internal Temperature from Ultra-wideband Software-defined Microwave Radiometer (UWBRAD) Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Y.; Durand, M. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Yardim, C.; Bringer, A.; Aksoy, M.; Johnson, J. T.

2017-12-01

The ultra-wideband software-defined microwave radiometer (UWBRAD) is designed to provide ice sheet internal temperature product via measuring low frequency microwave emission. Twelve channels ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 GHz are covered by the instrument. A Greenland air-borne demonstration was demonstrated in September 2016, provided first demonstration of Ultra-wideband radiometer observations of geophysical scenes, including ice sheets. Another flight is planned for September 2017 for acquiring measurements in central ice sheet. A Bayesian framework is designed to retrieve the ice sheet internal temperature from simulated UWBRAD brightness temperature (Tb) measurements over Greenland flight path with limited prior information of the ground. A 1-D heat-flow model, the Robin Model, was used to model the ice sheet internal temperature profile with ground information. Synthetic UWBRAD Tb observations was generated via the partially coherent radiation transfer model, which utilizes the Robin model temperature profile and an exponential fit of ice density from Borehole measurement as input, and corrupted with noise. The effective surface temperature, geothermal heat flux, the variance of upper layer ice density, and the variance of fine scale density variation at deeper ice sheet were treated as unknown variables within the retrieval framework. Each parameter is defined with its possible range and set to be uniformly distributed. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is applied to make the unknown parameters randomly walk in the parameter space. We investigate whether the variables can be improved over priors using the MCMC approach and contribute to the temperature retrieval theoretically. UWBRAD measurements near camp century from 2016 was also treated with the MCMC to examine the framework with scattering effect. The fine scale density fluctuation is an important parameter. It is the most sensitive yet highly unknown parameter in the estimation framework. Including the fine scale density fluctuation greatly improved the retrieval results. The ice sheet vertical temperature profile, especially the 10m temperature, can be well retrieved via the MCMC process. Future retrieval work will apply the Bayesian approach to UWBRAD airborne measurements.

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

2017-12-01

There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

Creation of Synthetic Surface Temperature and Precipitation Ensembles Through A Computationally Efficient, Mixed Method Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartin, C.; Lynch, C.; Kravitz, B.; Link, R. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.

2017-12-01

Typically, uncertainty quantification of internal variability relies on large ensembles of climate model runs under multiple forcing scenarios or perturbations in a parameter space. Computationally efficient, standard pattern scaling techniques only generate one realization and do not capture the complicated dynamics of the climate system (i.e., stochastic variations with a frequency-domain structure). In this study, we generate large ensembles of climate data with spatially and temporally coherent variability across a subselection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First, for each CMIP5 model we apply a pattern emulation approach to derive the model response to external forcing. We take all the spatial and temporal variability that isn't explained by the emulator and decompose it into non-physically based structures through use of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Then, we perform a Fourier decomposition of the EOF projection coefficients to capture the input fields' temporal autocorrelation so that our new emulated patterns reproduce the proper timescales of climate response and "memory" in the climate system. Through this 3-step process, we derive computationally efficient climate projections consistent with CMIP5 model trends and modes of variability, which address a number of deficiencies inherent in the ability of pattern scaling to reproduce complex climate model behavior.

Integrating Variable Renewable Energy in Electric Power Markets: Best Practices from International Experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cochran, J.; Bird, L.; Heeter, J.

Many countries -- reflecting very different geographies, markets, and power systems -- are successfully managing high levels of variable renewable energy on the electric grid, including that from wind and solar energy. This study documents the diverse approaches to effective integration of variable renewable energy among six countries -- Australia (South Australia), Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Spain, and the United States (Western region-Colorado and Texas)-- and summarizes policy best practices that energy ministers and other stakeholders can pursue to ensure that electricity markets and power systems can effectively coevolve with increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Each country has crafted itsmore » own combination of policies, market designs, and system operations to achieve the system reliability and flexibility needed to successfully integrate renewables. Notwithstanding this diversity, the approaches taken by the countries studied all coalesce around five strategic areas: lead public engagement, particularly for new transmission; coordinate and integrate planning; develop rules for market evolution that enable system flexibility; expand access to diverse resources and geographic footprint of operations; and improve system operations. The ability to maintain a broad ecosystem perspective, to organize and make available the wealth of experiences, and to ensure a clear path from analysis to enactment should be the primary focus going forward.« less

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

PubMed

Ruperto, Nicolino; Pistorio, Angela; Ravelli, Angelo; Rider, Lisa G; Pilkington, Clarissa; Oliveira, Sheila; Wulffraat, Nico; Espada, Graciela; Garay, Stella; Cuttica, Ruben; Hofer, Michael; Quartier, Pierre; Melo-Gomes, Jose; Reed, Ann M; Wierzbowska, Malgorzata; Feldman, Brian M; Harjacek, Miroslav; Huppertz, Hans-Iko; Nielsen, Susan; Flato, Berit; Lahdenne, Pekka; Michels, Harmut; Murray, Kevin J; Punaro, Lynn; Rennebohm, Robert; Russo, Ricardo; Balogh, Zsolt; Rooney, Madeleine; Pachman, Lauren M; Wallace, Carol; Hashkes, Philip; Lovell, Daniel J; Giannini, Edward H; Gare, Boel Andersson; Martini, Alberto

2010-11-01

To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the "gold standard measure," chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM. Copyright © 2010 by the American College of Rheumatology.

Diversity, attrition and transition into nursing.

PubMed

Mulholland, Jon; Anionwu, Elizabeth N; Atkins, Richard; Tappern, Mike; Franks, Peter J

2008-10-01

This paper is a report of a study to explore the relationship between selected diversity variables (sex, country of birth, ethnicity, age, educational qualifications, and additionally visa status, application route, absence rates), and nursing students' progression and attrition. Debates on levels, forms and causation of nursing student attrition have been professional, academic and political concerns for some time on an international level. However, a more systematic approach to studying the topic is needed. We lack commonly operationalized national and international data on the relationship between attrition and diversity variables, and their implications for cost, social justice and demographic representativeness in nursing. A longitudinal cohort design was used. Data were collected from 2003 to 2005 from routinely collected data in student records. Males had lower odds of completing the programme than females, as did younger students. Compared with United Kingdom-born students, those born in Ireland, Zimbabwe, or other English-speaking countries were more likely to complete the programme. Students born overseas in non-English-speaking countries did not differ statistically significantly from United Kingdom-born students. Those at all qualification levels had similar odds of completion, except students already qualified at degree level, who were less likely to complete. Further national and international research is needed to understand better the causal variables underpinning differential attrition rates, with particular regard to understanding how different groups may experience the relationship between education and their broader circumstances and between the theoretical and the clinical elements of nurse education itself.

Factors influencing adherence to psychopharmacological medications in psychiatric patients: a structural equation modeling approach.

PubMed

De Las Cuevas, Carlos; de Leon, Jose; Peñate, Wenceslao; Betancort, Moisés

2017-01-01

To evaluate pathways through which sociodemographic, clinical, attitudinal, and perceived health control variables impact psychiatric patients' adherence to psychopharmacological medications. A sample of 966 consecutive psychiatric outpatients was studied. The variables were sociodemographic (age, gender, and education), clinical (diagnoses, drug treatment, and treatment duration), attitudinal (attitudes toward psychopharmacological medication and preferences regarding participation in decision-making), perception of control over health (health locus of control, self-efficacy, and psychological reactance), and level of adherence to psychopharmacological medications. Structural equation modeling was applied to examine the nonstraightforward relationships and the interactive effects among the analyzed variables. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that psychiatric patients' treatment adherence was associated: 1) negatively with cognitive psychological reactance (adherence decreased as cognitive psychological reactance increased), 2) positively with patients' trust in their psychiatrists (doctors' subscale), 3) negatively with patients' belief that they are in control of their mental health and that their mental health depends on their own actions (internal subscale), and 4) positively (although weakly) with age. Self-efficacy indirectly influenced treatment adherence through internal health locus of control. This study provides support for the hypothesis that perceived health control variables play a relevant role in psychiatric patients' adherence to psychopharmacological medications. The findings highlight the importance of considering prospective studies of patients' psychological reactance and health locus of control as they may be clinically relevant factors contributing to adherence to psychopharmacological medications.

Alternative approaches for identifying acute systemic toxicity: Moving from research to regulatory testing.

PubMed

Hamm, Jon; Sullivan, Kristie; Clippinger, Amy J; Strickland, Judy; Bell, Shannon; Bhhatarai, Barun; Blaauboer, Bas; Casey, Warren; Dorman, David; Forsby, Anna; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gehen, Sean; Graepel, Rabea; Hotchkiss, Jon; Lowit, Anna; Matheson, Joanna; Reaves, Elissa; Scarano, Louis; Sprankle, Catherine; Tunkel, Jay; Wilson, Dan; Xia, Menghang; Zhu, Hao; Allen, David

2017-06-01

Acute systemic toxicity testing provides the basis for hazard labeling and risk management of chemicals. A number of international efforts have been directed at identifying non-animal alternatives for in vivo acute systemic toxicity tests. A September 2015 workshop, Alternative Approaches for Identifying Acute Systemic Toxicity: Moving from Research to Regulatory Testing, reviewed the state-of-the-science of non-animal alternatives for this testing and explored ways to facilitate implementation of alternatives. Workshop attendees included representatives from international regulatory agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. Resources identified as necessary for meaningful progress in implementing alternatives included compiling and making available high-quality reference data, training on use and interpretation of in vitro and in silico approaches, and global harmonization of testing requirements. Attendees particularly noted the need to characterize variability in reference data to evaluate new approaches. They also noted the importance of understanding the mechanisms of acute toxicity, which could be facilitated by the development of adverse outcome pathways. Workshop breakout groups explored different approaches to reducing or replacing animal use for acute toxicity testing, with each group crafting a roadmap and strategy to accomplish near-term progress. The workshop steering committee has organized efforts to implement the recommendations of the workshop participants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternative Approaches for Identifying Acute Systemic Toxicity: Moving from Research to Regulatory Testing

PubMed Central

Hamm, Jon; Sullivan, Kristie; Clippinger, Amy J.; Strickland, Judy; Bell, Shannon; Bhhatarai, Barun; Blaauboer, Bas; Casey, Warren; Dorman, David; Forsby, Anna; Garcia-Reyero, Natàlia; Gehen, Sean; Graepel, Rabea; Hotchkiss, Jon; Lowit, Anna; Matheson, Joanna; Reaves, Elissa; Scarano, Louis; Sprankle, Catherine; Tunkel, Jay; Wilson, Dan; Xia, Menghang; Zhu, Hao; Allen, David

2017-01-01

Acute systemic toxicity testing provides the basis for hazard labeling and risk management of chemicals. A number of international efforts have been directed at identifying non-animal alternatives for in vivo acute systemic toxicity tests. A September 2015 workshop, Alternative Approaches for Identifying Acute Systemic Toxicity: Moving from Research to Regulatory Testing, reviewed the state-of-the-science of non-animal alternatives for this testing and explored ways to facilitate implementation of alternatives. Workshop attendees included representatives from international regulatory agencies, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. Resources identified as necessary for meaningful progress in implementing alternatives included compiling and making available high-quality reference data, training on use and interpretation of in vitro and in silico approaches, and global harmonization of testing requirements. Attendees particularly noted the need to characterize variability in reference data to evaluate new approaches. They also noted the importance of understanding the mechanisms of acute toxicity, which could be facilitated by the development of adverse outcome pathways. Workshop breakout groups explored different approaches to reducing or replacing animal use for acute toxicity testing, with each group crafting a roadmap and strategy to accomplish near-term progress. The workshop steering committee has organized efforts to implement the recommendations of the workshop participants. PMID:28069485

Psychosocial predictors in consideration of cosmetic surgery among women.

PubMed

Nerini, Amanda; Matera, Camilla; Stefanile, Cristina

2014-04-01

This study aimed to analyze the influence of psychosocial factors on the consideration of cosmetic surgery. The authors hypothesized that the internalization of thin ideals and social comparisons mediate the relationship between media pressure, family and peer influence (appearance conversations, perception of teasing, and peer attributions), and the desire to pursue cosmetic surgery. The study participants were 429 Italian women (mean age, 33 years). They completed a questionnaire containing the Appearance Conversations With Friends Scale, the Perception of Teasing Scale for Friends, the Peer Attribution Scale, the "Pressure and Internalization-General" subscales of the Sociocultural Attitudes Towards Appearance Questionnaire-3, the Feedback on Physical Appearance Scale, the Physical Appearance Comparison Scale, and the "Consider" subscale of the Acceptance of Cosmetic Surgery Scale. Hierarchical linear regression was performed. The results indicated that media pressure and appearance conversations with peers predicted the outcome variable through the full mediation of internalization of thin ideals. The relation between peer attributions and interest in cosmetic surgery was partially mediated by internalization of thin ideals. Although social comparison was significantly related to both sociocultural variables and consideration of cosmetic procedures, it was not a significant mediator of this relationship. Neither family influence nor perception of teasing predicted the outcome variable. Overall, these results provide important information about the factors implicated in the consideration of cosmetic surgery by women. This research confirms that cosmetic surgeons need to adopt a base psychological approach. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles.

PubMed

Yao, Shuai-Lei; Luo, Jing-Jia; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

Regional climate projections are challenging because of large uncertainty particularly stemming from unpredictable, internal variability of the climate system. Here, we examine the internal variability-induced uncertainty in precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) trends during 2005-2055 over East Asia based on 40 member ensemble projections of the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). The model ensembles are generated from a suite of different atmospheric initial conditions using the same SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario. We find that projected precipitation trends are subject to considerably larger internal uncertainty and hence have lower confidence, compared to the projected SAT trends in both the boreal winter and summer. Projected SAT trends in winter have relatively higher uncertainty than those in summer. Besides, the lower-level atmospheric circulation has larger uncertainty than that in the mid-level. Based on k-means cluster analysis, we demonstrate that a substantial portion of internally-induced precipitation and SAT trends arises from internal large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. These results highlight the importance of internal climate variability in affecting regional climate projections on multi-decadal timescales.

Juvenile delinquency, welfare, justice and therapeutic interventions: a global perspective.

PubMed

Young, Susan; Greer, Ben; Church, Richard

2017-02-01

This review considers juvenile delinquency and justice from an international perspective. Youth crime is a growing concern. Many young offenders are also victims with complex needs, leading to a public health approach that requires a balance of welfare and justice models. However, around the world there are variable and inadequate legal frameworks and a lack of a specialist workforce. The UK and other high-income countries worldwide have established forensic child and adolescent psychiatry, a multifaceted discipline incorporating legal, psychiatric and developmental fields. Its adoption of an evidence-based therapeutic intervention philosophy has been associated with greater reductions in recidivism compared with punitive approaches prevalent in some countries worldwide, and it is therefore a superior approach to dealing with the problem of juvenile delinquency.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

On the Temporal Variability of Low-Mode Internal Tides in the Deep Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.

2010-01-01

In situ measurements of internal tides are typically characterized by high temporal variability, with strong dependence on stratification, mesoscale eddies, and background currents commonly observed. Thus, it is surprising to find phase-locked internal tides detectable by satellite altimetry. An important question is how much tidal variability is missed by altimetry. We address this question in several ways. We subset the altimetry by season and find only very small changes -- an important exception being internal tides in the South China Sea where we observe strong seasonal dependence. A wavenumber-domain analysis confirms that throughout most of the global ocean there is little temporal variability in altimetric internal-tide signals, at least in the first baroclinic mode, which is the mode that dominates surface elevation. The analysis shows higher order modes to be significantly more variable. The results of this study have important practical implications for the anticipated SWOT wide-swath altimeter mission, for which removal of internal tide signals is critical for observing non-tidal submesoscale phenomena.

Global Cooperation in the Science of Sun-Earth Connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk; Davila, Joseph

2011-01-01

The international space science community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by SCOSTEP and the International Living with a Star (ILWS) program. These programs have brought scientists together to tackle the scientific issues related to short and long term variability of the Sun and the consequences in the heliosphere. The ISWI program is a continuation of the successful International Heliophysical Year (IHY) 2007 program in focusing on science, observatory deployment, and outreach. The IHY/ISWI observatory deployment has not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. The ISWI schools and UN workshops are the primary venues for interaction and information exchange among scientists from developing and developed countries that lead to collaborative efforts in space weather. This paper presents a summary of ISWI activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

ASFinder: a tool for genome-wide identification of alternatively splicing transcripts from EST-derived sequences.

PubMed

Min, Xiang Jia

2013-01-01

Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) are a rich resource for identifying Alternatively Splicing (AS) genes. The ASFinder webserver is designed to identify AS isoforms from EST-derived sequences. Two approaches are implemented in ASFinder. If no genomic sequences are provided, the server performs a local BLASTN to identify AS isoforms from ESTs having both ends aligned but an internal segment unaligned. Otherwise, ASFinder uses SIM4 to map ESTs to the genome, then the overlapping ESTs that are mapped to the same genomic locus and have internal variable exon/intron boundaries are identified as AS isoforms. The tool is available at http://proteomics.ysu.edu/tools/ASFinder.html.

Correlates and consequences of internalized stigma for people living with mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Livingston, James D; Boyd, Jennifer E

2010-12-01

An expansive body of research has investigated the experiences and adverse consequences of internalized stigma for people with mental illness. This article provides a systematic review and meta-analysis of the extant research regarding the empirical relationship between internalized stigma and a range of sociodemographic, psychosocial, and psychiatric variables for people who live with mental illness. An exhaustive review of the research literature was performed on all articles published in English that assessed a statistical relationship between internalized stigma and at least one other variable for adults who live with mental illness. In total, 127 articles met the inclusion criteria for systematic review, of which, data from 45 articles were extracted for meta-analyses. None of the sociodemographic variables that were included in the study were consistently or strongly correlated with levels of internalized stigma. The review uncovered a striking and robust negative relationship between internalized stigma and a range of psychosocial variables (e.g., hope, self-esteem, and empowerment). Regarding psychiatric variables, internalized stigma was positively associated with psychiatric symptom severity and negatively associated with treatment adherence. The review draws attention to the lack of longitudinal research in this area of study which has inhibited the clinical relevance of findings related to internalized stigma. The study also highlights the need for greater attention on disentangling the true nature of the relationship between internalized stigma and other psychosocial variables. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable Speed CMG Control of a Dual-Spin Stabilized Unconventional VTOL Air Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Kyong B.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Shin, J-Y.

2004-01-01

This paper describes an approach based on using both bias momentum and multiple control moment gyros for controlling the attitude of statically unstable thrust-levitated vehicles in hover or slow translation. The stabilization approach described in this paper uses these internal angular momentum transfer devices for stability, augmented by thrust vectoring for trim and other outer loop control functions, including CMG stabilization/ desaturation under persistent external disturbances. Simulation results show the feasibility of (1) improved vehicle performance beyond bias momentum assisted vector thrusting control, and (2) using control moment gyros to significantly reduce the external torque required from the vector thrusting machinery.

Prediction of thoracic injury severity in frontal impacts by selected anatomical morphomic variables through model-averaged logistic regression approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Peng; Parenteau, Chantal; Wang, Lu; Holcombe, Sven; Kohoyda-Inglis, Carla; Sullivan, June; Wang, Stewart

2013-11-01

This study resulted in a model-averaging methodology that predicts crash injury risk using vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables and assesses the importance of individual predictors. The effectiveness of this methodology was illustrated through analysis of occupant chest injuries in frontal vehicle crashes. The crash data were obtained from the International Center for Automotive Medicine (ICAM) database for calendar year 1996 to 2012. The morphomic data are quantitative measurements of variations in human body 3-dimensional anatomy. Morphomics are obtained from imaging records. In this study, morphomics were obtained from chest, abdomen, and spine CT using novel patented algorithms. A NASS-trained crash investigator with over thirty years of experience collected the in-depth crash data. There were 226 cases available with occupants involved in frontal crashes and morphomic measurements. Only cases with complete recorded data were retained for statistical analysis. Logistic regression models were fitted using all possible configurations of vehicle, demographic, and morphomic variables. Different models were ranked by the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). An averaged logistic regression model approach was used due to the limited sample size relative to the number of variables. This approach is helpful when addressing variable selection, building prediction models, and assessing the importance of individual variables. The final predictive results were developed using this approach, based on the top 100 models in the AIC ranking. Model-averaging minimized model uncertainty, decreased the overall prediction variance, and provided an approach to evaluating the importance of individual variables. There were 17 variables investigated: four vehicle, four demographic, and nine morphomic. More than 130,000 logistic models were investigated in total. The models were characterized into four scenarios to assess individual variable contribution to injury risk. Scenario 1 used vehicle variables; Scenario 2, vehicle and demographic variables; Scenario 3, vehicle and morphomic variables; and Scenario 4 used all variables. AIC was used to rank the models and to address over-fitting. In each scenario, the results based on the top three models and the averages of the top 100 models were presented. The AIC and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were reported in each model. The models were re-fitted after removing each variable one at a time. The increases of AIC and the decreases of AUC were then assessed to measure the contribution and importance of the individual variables in each model. The importance of the individual variables was also determined by their weighted frequencies of appearance in the top 100 selected models. Overall, the AUC was 0.58 in Scenario 1, 0.78 in Scenario 2, 0.76 in Scenario 3 and 0.82 in Scenario 4. The results showed that morphomic variables are as accurate at predicting injury risk as demographic variables. The results of this study emphasize the importance of including morphomic variables when assessing injury risk. The results also highlight the need for morphomic data in the development of human mathematical models when assessing restraint performance in frontal crashes, since morphomic variables are more "tangible" measurements compared to demographic variables such as age and gender. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International spinal cord injury endocrine and metabolic extended data set.

PubMed

Bauman, W A; Wecht, J M; Biering-Sørensen, F

2017-05-01

The objective of this study was to develop the International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Endocrine and Metabolic Extended Data Set (ISCIEMEDS) within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets that would facilitate consistent collection and reporting of endocrine and metabolic findings in the SCI population. This study was conducted in an international setting. The ISCIEMEDS was developed by a working group. The initial ISCIEMEDS was revised based on suggestions from members of the International SCI Data Sets Committee, the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Executive and Scientific Committees, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) Board, other interested organizations, societies and individual reviewers. The data set was posted for two months on ISCoS and ASIA websites for comments. Variable names were standardized, and a suggested database structure for the ISCIEMEDS was provided by the Common Data Elements (CDEs) project at the National Institute on Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) of the US National Institute of Health (NIH), and are available at https://commondataelements.ninds.nih.gov/SCI.aspx#tab=Data_Standards. The final ISCIEMEDS contains questions on the endocrine and metabolic conditions related to SCI. Because the information may be collected at any time, the date of data collection is important to determine the time after SCI. ISCIEMEDS includes information on carbohydrate metabolism (6 variables), calcium and bone metabolism (12 variables), thyroid function (9 variables), adrenal function (2 variables), gonadal function (7 variables), pituitary function (6 variables), sympathetic nervous system function (1 variable) and renin-aldosterone axis function (2 variables). The complete instructions for data collection and the data sheet itself are freely available on the website of ISCoS (http://www.iscos.org.uk/international-sci-data-sets).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Paul

By “Quantitative Empirical Analysis” (QEA) is intended the use of statistical methods to infer, from data that often tend to be of a historical nature, the characteristics of states that correlate with some designated dependent variable (e.g. proliferation of nuclear weapons). QEA is a well-established approach in the social sciences, but is not notably well-known among physical scientists, who tend to think of the social sciences as inherently qualitative. This article attempts to provide a snapshot of research, most of which has evolved over the past decade, involving the application of QEA to issues in which the dependent variable ofmore » interest is intended as some measure of nuclear proliferation. Standard practices in QEA are described, especially as they relate to data collection. The QEA approach is compared and contrasted to other quantitative approaches to studying proliferation-related issues, including a “figure of merit” approach that has largely been developed within the DOE complex, and two distinct methodologies termed in a recent US National Academy of Sciences study as “case by case” and “predefined framework.” Sample results from QEA applied to proliferation are indicated, as are doubts about such quantitative approaches. A simplistic decision-theoretic model of the optimal time for the international community to intervene in a possible proliferation scenario is used to illustrate the possibility of synergies between different approaches« less

The road to 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases: trajectories of scientific consensus and contested science in the classification of intellectual disability/intellectual developmental disorders.

PubMed

Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Bertelli, Marco; Martinez-Leal, Rafael

2018-03-01

To increase the expert knowledge-base on intellectual developmental disorders (IDDs) by investigating the typology trajectories of consensus formation in the classification systems up to the 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). This expert review combines an analysis of key recent literature and the revision of the consensus formation and contestation in the expert committees contributing to the classification systems since the 1950s. Historically two main approaches have contributed to the development of this knowledge-base: a neurodevelopmental-clinical approach and a psychoeducational-social approach. These approaches show a complex interaction throughout the history of IDD and have had a diverse influence on its classification. Although in theory Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM)-5 and ICD adhere to the neurodevelopmental-clinical model, the new definition in the ICD-11 follows a restrictive normality approach to intellectual quotient and to the measurement of adaptive behaviour. On the contrary DSM-5 is closer to the recommendations made by the WHO 'Working Group on Mental Retardation' for ICD-11 for an integrative approach. A cyclical pattern of consensus formation has been identified in IDD. The revision of the three major classification systems in the last decade has increased the terminological and conceptual variability and the overall scientific contestation on IDD.

Problem partners and parenting: exploring linkages with maternal insecure attachment style and adolescent offspring internalizing disorder.

PubMed

Bifulco, Antonia; Moran, Patricia; Jacobs, Catherine; Bunn, Amanda

2009-01-01

An intergenerational study examined mothers' insecure attachment style using the Attachment Style Interview (ASI; Bifulco et al., 2002a) in relation to her history of partner relationships, her parenting competence, and depression or anxiety disorder in her offspring. The sample comprised 146 high-risk, mother-adolescent offspring pairs in London, who were recruited on the basis of the mothers' psychosocial vulnerability for depression. Retrospective, biographical, and clinical interviews were undertaken independently with mother and offspring. A path model was developed, which showed that mothers' insecure attachment style had no direct link to either recalled child neglect/abuse or currently assessed disorder in their adolescent and young adult offspring. The connections appeared to be indirect, through the quality of relationships in the family system: mothers' insecure attachment and their partners' problem behavior accounted for variance in mothers' incompetent parenting as rated by interviewers. These variables predicted her neglect/abuse of the child, which was the only variable directly associated with internalizing disorder in her offspring. Mother's lifetime depression did not add to the model. It is argued that an ecological approach (emphasizing social adversity and different role domains) and a lifespan approach (emphasizing a history of adverse relationships a different life stages) is important in understanding the mechanisms by which parental insecure attachment style influences transmission of risk to the next generation.

A comprehensive strategy in the development of a cyclodextrin-modified microemulsion electrokinetic chromatographic method for the assay of diclofenac and its impurities: Mixture-process variable experiments and quality by design.

PubMed

Orlandini, S; Pasquini, B; Caprini, C; Del Bubba, M; Squarcialupi, L; Colotta, V; Furlanetto, S

2016-09-30

A comprehensive strategy involving the use of mixture-process variable (MPV) approach and Quality by Design principles has been applied in the development of a capillary electrophoresis method for the simultaneous determination of the anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac and its five related substances. The selected operative mode consisted in microemulsion electrokinetic chromatography with the addition of methyl-β-cyclodextrin. The critical process parameters included both the mixture components (MCs) of the microemulsion and the process variables (PVs). The MPV approach allowed the simultaneous investigation of the effects of MCs and PVs on the critical resolution between diclofenac and its 2-deschloro-2-bromo analogue and on analysis time. MPV experiments were used both in the screening phase and in the Response Surface Methodology, making it possible to draw MCs and PVs contour plots and to find important interactions between MCs and PVs. Robustness testing was carried out by MPV experiments and validation was performed following International Conference on Harmonisation guidelines. The method was applied to a real sample of diclofenac gastro-resistant tablets. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Responses to Climate Variability: The Case of South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Licker, R.; Mastrorillo, M.; Bohra-Mishra, P.; Estes, L. D.; Cai, R.

2014-12-01

Climate variability has been associated with a range of societal and individual outcomes including migration, violent conflict, changes in labor productivity, and health impacts. Some of these may be direct responses to changes in mean temperature or precipitation or extreme events, such as displacement of human populations by tropical cyclones. Others may be mediated by a variety of biological, social, or ecological factors such as migration in response to long-term changes in crops yields. Research is beginning to elucidate and distinguish the many channels through which climate variability may influence human behavior (ranging from the individual to the collective, societal level) in order to better understand how to improve resilience in the face of current variability as well as future climate change. Using a variety of data sets from South Africa, we show how climate variability has influenced internal (within country) migration in recent history. We focus on South Africa as it is a country with high levels of internal migration and dramatic temperature and precipitation changes projected for the 21st century. High poverty rates and significant levels of rain-fed, smallholder agriculture leave large portions of South Africa's population base vulnerable to future climate change. In this study, we utilize two complementary statistical models - one micro-level model, driven by individual and household level survey data, and one macro-level model, driven by national census statistics. In both models, we consider the effect of climate on migration both directly (with gridded climate reanalysis data) and indirectly (with agricultural production statistics). With our historical analyses of climate variability, we gain insights into how the migration decisions of South Africans may be influenced by future climate change. We also offer perspective on the utility of micro and macro level approaches in the study of climate change and human migration.

Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa

2018-02-01

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.

Pose-free structure from motion using depth from motion constraints.

PubMed

Zhang, Ji; Boutin, Mireille; Aliaga, Daniel G

2011-10-01

Structure from motion (SFM) is the problem of recovering the geometry of a scene from a stream of images taken from unknown viewpoints. One popular approach to estimate the geometry of a scene is to track scene features on several images and reconstruct their position in 3-D. During this process, the unknown camera pose must also be recovered. Unfortunately, recovering the pose can be an ill-conditioned problem which, in turn, can make the SFM problem difficult to solve accurately. We propose an alternative formulation of the SFM problem with fixed internal camera parameters known a priori. In this formulation, obtained by algebraic variable elimination, the external camera pose parameters do not appear. As a result, the problem is better conditioned in addition to involving much fewer variables. Variable elimination is done in three steps. First, we take the standard SFM equations in projective coordinates and eliminate the camera orientations from the equations. We then further eliminate the camera center positions. Finally, we also eliminate all 3-D point positions coordinates, except for their depths with respect to the camera center, thus obtaining a set of simple polynomial equations of degree two and three. We show that, when there are merely a few points and pictures, these "depth-only equations" can be solved in a global fashion using homotopy methods. We also show that, in general, these same equations can be used to formulate a pose-free cost function to refine SFM solutions in a way that is more accurate than by minimizing the total reprojection error, as done when using the bundle adjustment method. The generalization of our approach to the case of varying internal camera parameters is briefly discussed. © 2011 IEEE

Emotional variability in mother-adolescent conflict interactions and internalizing problems of mothers and adolescents: dyadic and individual processes.

PubMed

Van der Giessen, Daniëlle; Hollenstein, Tom; Hale, William W; Koot, Hans M; Meeus, Wim; Branje, Susan

2015-02-01

Emotional variability reflects the ability to flexibly switch among a broad range of positive and negative emotions from moment-to-moment during interactions. Emotional variability during mother-adolescent conflict interactions is considered to be important for healthy socio-emotional functioning of mothers and adolescents. The current observational study examined whether dyadic emotional variability, maternal emotional variability, and adolescent emotional variability during conflict interactions in early adolescence predicted mothers' and adolescents' internalizing problems five years later. We used data from 92 mother-adolescent dyads (Mage T1 = 13.05; 65.20 % boys) who were videotaped at T1 while discussing a conflict. Emotional variability was derived from these conflict interactions and it was observed for mother-adolescent dyads, mothers and adolescents separately. Mothers and adolescents also completed questionnaires in early adolescence (T1) and five years later in late adolescence (T6) on mothers' internalizing problems, and adolescents' anxiety and depressive symptoms. Hierarchical regression analyses showed that less dyadic emotional variability in early adolescence predicted relative increases in mothers' internalizing problems, adolescents' depressive symptoms, and adolescents' anxiety symptoms from early to late adolescence. Less maternal emotional variability only predicted relative increases in adolescents' anxiety symptoms over time. The emotional valence (e.g., types of emotions expressed) of conflict interactions did not moderate the results. Taken together, findings highlighted the importance of considering limited emotional variability during conflict interactions in the development, prevention, and treatment of internalizing problems of mothers and adolescents.

A dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization algorithm for an inventory management problem under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zeng, Ziqiang; Han, Bernard; Lei, Xiao

2013-07-01

This article presents a dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization (DP-based PSO) algorithm for solving an inventory management problem for large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. By taking into account the purchasing behaviour and strategy under rules of international bidding, a multi-objective fuzzy random dynamic programming model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified by using an expected value operator with optimistic-pessimistic index. The iterative nature of the authors' model motivates them to develop a DP-based PSO algorithm. More specifically, their approach treats the state variables as hidden parameters. This in turn eliminates many redundant feasibility checks during initialization and particle updates at each iteration. Results and sensitivity analysis are presented to highlight the performance of the authors' optimization method, which is very effective as compared to the standard PSO algorithm.

Risk adjustment policy options for casemix funding: international lessons in financing reform.

PubMed

Antioch, Kathryn M; Ellis, Randall P; Gillett, Steve; Borovnicar, Daniel; Marshall, Ric P

2007-09-01

This paper explores modified hospital casemix payment formulae that would refine the diagnosis-related group (DRG) system in Victoria, Australia, which already makes adjustments for teaching, severity and demographics. We estimate alternative casemix funding methods using multiple regressions for individual hospital episodes from 2001 to 2003 on 70 high-deficit DRGs, focussing on teaching hospitals where the largest deficits have occurred. Our casemix variables are diagnosis- and procedure-based severity markers, counts of diagnoses and procedures, disease types, complexity, day outliers, emergency admission and "transfers in." The results are presented for four policy options that vary according to whether all of the dollars or only some are reallocated, whether all or some hospitals are used and whether the alternatives augment or replace existing payments. While our approach identifies variables that help explain patient cost variations, hospital-level simulations suggest that the approaches explored would only reduce teaching hospital underpayment by about 10%. The implications of various policy options are discussed.

[Health care innovation from a territorial perspective: a call for a new approach].

PubMed

Costa, Laís Silveira; Gadelha, Carlos Augusto Grabois; Maldonado, José

2012-12-01

Innovation plays an increasingly important role in health care, partly because it is responsible for a significant share of national investment in research and development, and partly because of its industrial and service provision base, which provides a conduit to future technology. The relationship between health care and development is also strengthened as a result of the leading role of health care in generating innovation. Nevertheless, Brazil's health care production base is persistently weak, hindering both universal provision of health care services and international competitiveness. This article, based on the theoretical framework of Political Economy and innovation systems, has sought to identify variables in subnational contexts that influence the dynamic of innovation generation in health care. To this end, the theoretical approach used lies on the assumption that innovation is a contextualized social process and that the production base in healthcare will remain weak if new variables involved in the dynamic of innovation are not taken into account.

Country-Specific Effects of Climate Variability on Human Migration

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark; Wise, Erika

2016-01-01

Involuntary human migration is among the social outcomes of greatest concern in the current era of global climate change. Responding to this concern, a growing number of studies have investigated the consequences of short to medium-term climate variability for human migration using demographic and econometric approaches. These studies have provided important insights, but at the same time have been significantly limited by lack of expertise in the use of climate data, access to cross-national data on migration, and attention to model specification. To address these limitations, we link data on internal and international migration over a 6-year period from 9,812 origin households in Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Senegal to high-resolution gridded climate data from both station and satellite sources. Analyses of these data using several plausible specifications reveal that climate variability has country-specific effects on migration: Migration tends to increase with temperature anomalies in Uganda, tends to decrease with temperature anomalies in Kenya and Burkina Faso, and shows no consistent relationship with temperature in Nigeria and Senegal. Consistent with previous studies, precipitation shows weak and inconsistent relationships with migration across countries. These results challenge generalizing narratives that foresee a consistent migratory response to climate change across the globe. PMID:27092012

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

2018-05-01

Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

Analytical evaluation of current starch methods used in the international sugar industry: Part I.

PubMed

Cole, Marsha; Eggleston, Gillian; Triplett, Alexa

2017-08-01

Several analytical starch methods exist in the international sugar industry to mitigate starch-related processing challenges and assess the quality of traded end-products. These methods use iodometric chemistry, mostly potato starch standards, and utilize similar solubilization strategies, but had not been comprehensively compared. In this study, industrial starch methods were compared to the USDA Starch Research method using simulated raw sugars. Type of starch standard, solubilization approach, iodometric reagents, and wavelength detection affected total starch determination in simulated raw sugars. Simulated sugars containing potato starch were more accurately detected by the industrial methods, whereas those containing corn starch, a better model for sugarcane starch, were only accurately measured by the USDA Starch Research method. Use of a potato starch standard curve over-estimated starch concentrations. Among the variables studied, starch standard, solubilization approach, and wavelength detection affected the sensitivity, accuracy/precision, and limited the detection/quantification of the current industry starch methods the most. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effects of Ensemble Configuration on Estimates of Regional Climate Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goldenson, N.; Mauger, G.; Leung, L. R.

Internal variability in the climate system can contribute substantial uncertainty in climate projections, particularly at regional scales. Internal variability can be quantified using large ensembles of simulations that are identical but for perturbed initial conditions. Here we compare methods for quantifying internal variability. Our study region spans the west coast of North America, which is strongly influenced by El Niño and other large-scale dynamics through their contribution to large-scale internal variability. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find that internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble ofmore » opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter also produce estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible, which has implications for ensemble design in large modeling efforts.« less

Juvenile delinquency, welfare, justice and therapeutic interventions: a global perspective

PubMed Central

Young, Susan; Greer, Ben; Church, Richard

2017-01-01

This review considers juvenile delinquency and justice from an international perspective. Youth crime is a growing concern. Many young offenders are also victims with complex needs, leading to a public health approach that requires a balance of welfare and justice models. However, around the world there are variable and inadequate legal frameworks and a lack of a specialist workforce. The UK and other high-income countries worldwide have established forensic child and adolescent psychiatry, a multifaceted discipline incorporating legal, psychiatric and developmental fields. Its adoption of an evidence-based therapeutic intervention philosophy has been associated with greater reductions in recidivism compared with punitive approaches prevalent in some countries worldwide, and it is therefore a superior approach to dealing with the problem of juvenile delinquency. PMID:28184313

Mechanics of deformations in terms of scalar variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryabov, Valeriy A.

2017-05-01

Theory of particle and continuous mechanics is developed which allows a treatment of pure deformation in terms of the set of variables "coordinate-momentum-force" instead of the standard treatment in terms of tensor-valued variables "strain-stress." This approach is quite natural for a microscopic description of atomic system, according to which only pointwise forces caused by the stress act to atoms making a body deform. The new concept starts from affine transformation of spatial to material coordinates in terms of the stretch tensor or its analogs. Thus, three principal stretches and three angles related to their orientation form a set of six scalar variables to describe deformation. Instead of volume-dependent potential used in the standard theory, which requires conditions of equilibrium for surface and body forces acting to a volume element, a potential dependent on scalar variables is introduced. A consistent introduction of generalized force associated with this potential becomes possible if a deformed body is considered to be confined on the surface of torus having six genuine dimensions. Strain, constitutive equations and other fundamental laws of the continuum and particle mechanics may be neatly rewritten in terms of scalar variables. Giving a new presentation for finite deformation new approach provides a full treatment of hyperelasticity including anisotropic case. Derived equations of motion generate a new kind of thermodynamical ensemble in terms of constant tension forces. In this ensemble, six internal deformation forces proportional to the components of Irving-Kirkwood stress are controlled by applied external forces. In thermodynamical limit, instead of the pressure and volume as state variables, this ensemble employs deformation force measured in kelvin unit and stretch ratio.

The test of variables of attention (TOVA): Internal consistency (Q1 vs. Q2 and Q3 vs. Q4) in children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The internal consistency of the Test of Variables of Attention (TOVA) was examined in a cohort of 6- to 12-year-old children (N = 63) strictly diagnosed with ADHD. The internal consistency of errors of omission (OMM), errors of commission (COM), response time (RT), and response time variability (RTV...

Variable structure control of nonlinear systems through simplified uncertain models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sira-Ramirez, Hebertt

1986-01-01

A variable structure control approach is presented for the robust stabilization of feedback equivalent nonlinear systems whose proposed model lies in the same structural orbit of a linear system in Brunovsky's canonical form. An attempt to linearize exactly the nonlinear plant on the basis of the feedback control law derived for the available model results in a nonlinearly perturbed canonical system for the expanded class of possible equivalent control functions. Conservatism tends to grow as modeling errors become larger. In order to preserve the internal controllability structure of the plant, it is proposed that model simplification be carried out on the open-loop-transformed system. As an example, a controller is developed for a single link manipulator with an elastic joint.

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.

2017-03-01

In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.

A descriptive comparison of ultrasound-guided central venous cannulation of the internal jugular vein to landmark-based subclavian vein cannulation.

PubMed

Theodoro, Daniel; Bausano, Brian; Lewis, Lawrence; Evanoff, Bradley; Kollef, Marin

2010-04-01

The safest site for central venous cannulation (CVC) remains debated. Many emergency physicians (EPs) advocate the ultrasound-guided internal jugular (USIJ) approach because of data supporting its efficiency. However, a number of physicians prefer, and are most comfortable with, the subclavian (SC) vein approach. The purpose of this study was to describe adverse event rates among operators using the USIJ approach, and the landmark SC vein approach without US. This was a prospective observational trial of patients undergoing CVC of the SC or internal jugular veins in the emergency department (ED). Physicians performing the procedures did not undergo standardized training in either technique. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse events defined as hematoma, arterial cannulation, pneumothorax, and failure to cannulate. Physicians recorded the anatomical site of cannulation, US assistance, indications, and acute complications. Variables of interest were collected from the pharmacy and ED record. Physician experience was based on a self-reported survey. The authors followed outcomes of central line insertion until device removal or patient discharge. Physicians attempted 236 USIJ and 132 SC cannulations on 333 patients. The overall adverse event rate was 22% with failure to cannulate being the most common. Adverse events occurred in 19% of USIJ attempts, compared to 29% of non-US-guided SC attempts. Among highly experienced operators, CVCs placed at the SC site resulted in more adverse events than those performed using USIJ (relative risk [RR] = 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 to 3.39). While limited by observational design, our results suggest that the USIJ technique may result in fewer adverse events compared to the landmark SC approach.

Widefield and total internal reflection fluorescent structured illumination microscopy with scanning galvo mirrors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Youhua; Cao, Ruizhi; Liu, Wenjie; Zhu, Dazhao; Zhang, Zhiming; Kuang, Cuifang; Liu, Xu

2018-04-01

We present an alternative approach to realize structured illumination microscopy (SIM), which is capable for live cell imaging. The prototype utilizes two sets of scanning galvo mirrors, a polarization converter and a piezo-platform to generate a fast shifted, s-polarization interfered and periodic variable illumination patterns. By changing the angle of the scanning galvanometer, we can change the position of the spots at the pupil plane of the objective lens arbitrarily, making it easy to switch between widefield and total internal reflection fluorescent-SIM mode and adapting the penetration depth in the sample. Also, a twofold resolution improvement is achieved in our experiments. The prototype offers more flexibility of pattern period and illumination orientation changing than previous systems.

Bayesian effect estimation accounting for adjustment uncertainty.

PubMed

Wang, Chi; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Dominici, Francesca

2012-09-01

Model-based estimation of the effect of an exposure on an outcome is generally sensitive to the choice of which confounding factors are included in the model. We propose a new approach, which we call Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), to estimate the effect of an exposure of interest on the outcome, while accounting for the uncertainty in the choice of confounders. Our approach is based on specifying two models: (1) the outcome as a function of the exposure and the potential confounders (the outcome model); and (2) the exposure as a function of the potential confounders (the exposure model). We consider Bayesian variable selection on both models and link the two by introducing a dependence parameter, ω, denoting the prior odds of including a predictor in the outcome model, given that the same predictor is in the exposure model. In the absence of dependence (ω= 1), BAC reduces to traditional Bayesian model averaging (BMA). In simulation studies, we show that BAC, with ω > 1, estimates the exposure effect with smaller bias than traditional BMA, and improved coverage. We, then, compare BAC, a recent approach of Crainiceanu, Dominici, and Parmigiani (2008, Biometrika 95, 635-651), and traditional BMA in a time series data set of hospital admissions, air pollution levels, and weather variables in Nassau, NY for the period 1999-2005. Using each approach, we estimate the short-term effects of on emergency admissions for cardiovascular diseases, accounting for confounding. This application illustrates the potentially significant pitfalls of misusing variable selection methods in the context of adjustment uncertainty. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

Symbolic integration of a class of algebraic functions. [by an algorithmic approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, E. W.

1974-01-01

An algorithm is presented for the symbolic integration of a class of algebraic functions. This class consists of functions made up of rational expressions of an integration variable x and square roots of polynomials, trigonometric and hyperbolic functions of x. The algorithm is shown to consist of the following components:(1) the reduction of input integrands to conical form; (2) intermediate internal representations of integrals; (3) classification of outputs; and (4) reduction and simplification of outputs to well-known functions.

Improving engineering effectiveness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiero, J. D.

1985-01-01

Methodologies to improve engineering productivity were investigated. The rocky road to improving engineering effectiveness is reviewed utilizing a specific semiconductor engineering organization as a case study. The organization had a performance problem regarding new product introductions. With the help of this consultant as a change agent the engineering team used a systems approach to through variables that were effecting their output significantly. Critical factors for improving this engineering organization's effectiveness and the roles/responsibilities of management, the individual engineers and the internal consultant are discussed.

Precipitation Phenomena: Deformation and Aging. Proceedings of an International Conference Held in Conjunction with the 1988 World Materials Congress, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 24-30 September 1988

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

corrosion and stress analytical methods. corrosion cracking (SCC) in certain aqueous 3 EXPERIMENTAL PROCEDURE treatments were performed using variable time...properly oriented with the applied uniaxial approach a comparable EPR-DOS in the control stress are influenced. Deformation may specimens. EPR-DOS values...corrosion and stress corrosion. Atteridge, Sensitization Development Deformation above 20% prior strain, however, in Austenitic Stainless Steel: II. induces

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

A principal component analysis of the relationship between the external body shape and internal skeleton for the upper body.

PubMed

Nerot, A; Skalli, W; Wang, X

2016-10-03

Recent progress in 3D scanning technologies allows easy access to 3D human body envelope. To create personalized human models with an articulated linkage for realistic re-posturing and motion analyses, an accurate estimation of internal skeleton points, including joint centers, from the external envelope is required. For this research project, 3D reconstructions of both internal skeleton and external envelope from low dose biplanar X-rays of 40 male adults were obtained. Using principal component analysis technique (PCA), a low-dimensional dataset was used to predict internal points of the upper body from the trunk envelope. A least squares method was used to find PC scores that fit the PCA-based model to the envelope of a new subject. To validate the proposed approach, estimated internal points were evaluated using a leave-one-out (LOO) procedure, i.e. successively considering each individual from our dataset as an extra-subject. In addition, different methods were proposed to reduce the variability in data and improve the performance of the PCA-based prediction. The best method was considered as the one providing the smallest errors between estimated and reference internal points with an average error of 8.3mm anterior-posteriorly, 6.7mm laterally and 6.5mm vertically. As the proposed approach relies on few or no bony landmarks, it could be easily applicable and generalizable to surface scans from any devices. Combined with automatic body scanning techniques, this study could potentially constitute a new step towards automatic generation of external/internal subject-specific manikins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clostridium difficile infection in returning travellers.

PubMed

Michal Stevens, A; Esposito, Douglas H; Stoney, Rhett J; Hamer, Davidson H; Flores-Figueroa, Jose; Bottieau, Emmanuel; Connor, Bradley A; Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni; Goorhuis, Abraham; Hynes, Noreen A; Libman, Michael; Lopez-Velez, Rogelio; McCarthy, Anne E; von Sonnenburg, Frank; Schwartz, Eli; van Genderen, Perry J J; Scott Benson, L; Leung, Daniel T

2017-05-01

There is increasing recognition of the contribution of community-acquired cases to the global burden of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). The epidemiology of CDI among international travellers is poorly understood, and factors associated with international travel, such as antibiotic use and changes in gut microbiota, could potentially put travellers at higher risk. We summarized demographic, travel-associated and geographic characteristics of travellers with CDI in the GeoSentinel database from 1997 to 2015. We also surveyed GeoSentinel sites to compare various testing indications, approaches, and diagnostic modalities. We identified 260 GeoSentinel records, including 187 that satisfied criteria for analysis (confirmed cases in non-immigrant travellers aged >2 years, seen <12 weeks post-travel). CDI was reported in all age groups and in travellers to all world regions; the largest proportions of cases having destinations in Asia (31%), Central/South America or the Caribbean (30%) and Africa (24%). Our site survey revealed substantial heterogeneity of testing approaches between sites; the most commonly used test was the C. difficile toxin gene PCR. CDI is encountered in returning international travellers, although there is considerable variability in testing practices. These data underscore the importance of awareness of C. difficile as a potential cause of travel-associated diarrhoea. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

A methodology for achieving high-speed rates for artificial conductance injection in electrically excitable biological cells.

PubMed

Butera, R J; Wilson, C G; Delnegro, C A; Smith, J C

2001-12-01

We present a novel approach to implementing the dynamic-clamp protocol (Sharp et al., 1993), commonly used in neurophysiology and cardiac electrophysiology experiments. Our approach is based on real-time extensions to the Linux operating system. Conventional PC-based approaches have typically utilized single-cycle computational rates of 10 kHz or slower. In thispaper, we demonstrate reliable cycle-to-cycle rates as fast as 50 kHz. Our system, which we call model reference current injection (MRCI); pronounced merci is also capable of episodic logging of internal state variables and interactive manipulation of model parameters. The limiting factor in achieving high speeds was not processor speed or model complexity, but cycle jitter inherent in the CPU/motherboard performance. We demonstrate these high speeds and flexibility with two examples: 1) adding action-potential ionic currents to a mammalian neuron under whole-cell patch-clamp and 2) altering a cell's intrinsic dynamics via MRCI while simultaneously coupling it via artificial synapses to an internal computational model cell. These higher rates greatly extend the applicability of this technique to the study of fast electrophysiological currents such fast a currents and fast excitatory/inhibitory synapses.

Internal Validity: A Must in Research Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cahit, Kaya

2015-01-01

In experimental research, internal validity refers to what extent researchers can conclude that changes in dependent variable (i.e. outcome) are caused by manipulations in independent variable. The causal inference permits researchers to meaningfully interpret research results. This article discusses (a) internal validity threats in social and…

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2015-03-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which is to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Comparison of spatial association approaches for landscape mapping of soil organic carbon stocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. A.; Koszinski, S.; Wehrhan, M.; Sommer, M.

2014-11-01

The distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be variable at small analysis scales, but consideration of its role in regional and global issues demands the mapping of large extents. There are many different strategies for mapping SOC, among which are to model the variables needed to calculate the SOC stock indirectly or to model the SOC stock directly. The purpose of this research is to compare direct and indirect approaches to mapping SOC stocks from rule-based, multiple linear regression models applied at the landscape scale via spatial association. The final products for both strategies are high-resolution maps of SOC stocks (kg m-2), covering an area of 122 km2, with accompanying maps of estimated error. For the direct modelling approach, the estimated error map was based on the internal error estimations from the model rules. For the indirect approach, the estimated error map was produced by spatially combining the error estimates of component models via standard error propagation equations. We compared these two strategies for mapping SOC stocks on the basis of the qualities of the resulting maps as well as the magnitude and distribution of the estimated error. The direct approach produced a map with less spatial variation than the map produced by the indirect approach. The increased spatial variation represented by the indirect approach improved R2 values for the topsoil and subsoil stocks. Although the indirect approach had a lower mean estimated error for the topsoil stock, the mean estimated error for the total SOC stock (topsoil + subsoil) was lower for the direct approach. For these reasons, we recommend the direct approach to modelling SOC stocks be considered a more conservative estimate of the SOC stocks' spatial distribution.

Uncertainties in Future Regional Sea Level Trends: How to Deal with the Internal Climate Variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M.; Karpytchev, M.; Hu, A.; Deser, C.; Lennartz-Sassinek, S.

2017-12-01

Today, the Climate models (CM) are the main tools for forecasting sea level rise (SLR) at global and regional scales. The CM forecasts are accompanied by inherent uncertainties. Understanding and reducing these uncertainties is becoming a matter of increasing urgency in order to provide robust estimates of SLR impact on coastal societies, which need sustainable choices of climate adaptation strategy. These CM uncertainties are linked to structural model formulation, initial conditions, emission scenario and internal variability. The internal variability is due to complex non-linear interactions within the Earth Climate System and can induce diverse quasi-periodic oscillatory modes and long-term persistences. To quantify the effects of internal variability, most studies used multi-model ensembles or sea level projections from a single model ran with perturbed initial conditions. However, large ensembles are not generally available, or too small, and computationally expensive. In this study, we use a power-law scaling of sea level fluctuations, as observed in many other geophysical signals and natural systems, which can be used to characterize the internal climate variability. From this specific statistical framework, we (1) use the pre-industrial control run of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR-CCSM) to test the robustness of the power-law scaling hypothesis; (2) employ the power-law statistics as a tool for assessing the spread of regional sea level projections due to the internal climate variability for the 21st century NCAR-CCSM; (3) compare the uncertainties in predicted sea level changes obtained from a NCAR-CCSM multi-member ensemble simulations with estimates derived for power-law processes, and (4) explore the sensitivity of spatial patterns of the internal variability and its effects on regional sea level projections.

Internalized stigma and its psychosocial correlates in Korean patients with serious mental illness.

PubMed

Kim, Woo Jung; Song, Youn Joo; Ryu, Hyun-Sook; Ryu, Vin; Kim, Jae Min; Ha, Ra Yeon; Lee, Su Jin; Namkoong, Kee; Ha, Kyooseob; Cho, Hyun-Sang

2015-02-28

We aimed to examine internalized stigma of patients with mental illness in Korea and identify the contributing factors to internalized stigma among socio-demographic, clinical, and psychosocial variables using a cross-sectional study design. A total of 160 patients were recruited from a university mental hospital. We collected socio-demographic data, clinical variables and administered self-report scales to measure internalized stigma and levels of self-esteem, hopelessness, social support, and social conflict. Internalized stigma was identified in 8.1% of patients in our sample. High internalized stigma was independently predicted by low self-esteem, high hopelessness, and high social conflict among the psychosocial variables. Our finding suggests that simple psychoeducation only for insight gaining cannot improve internalized stigma. To manage internalized stigma in mentally ill patients, it is needed to promote hope and self-esteem. We also suggest that a relevant psychosocial intervention, such as developing coping skills for social conflict with family, can help patients overcome their internalized stigma. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Thermodynamical Theory with Internal Variables Describing Thermal Effects in Viscous Fluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciancio, Vincenzo; Palumbo, Annunziata

2018-04-01

In this paper the heat conduction in viscous fluids is described by using the theory of classical irreversible thermodynamics with internal variables. In this theory, the deviation from the local equilibrium is characterized by vectorial internal variables and a generalized entropy current density expressed in terms of so-called current multipliers. Cross effects between heat conduction and viscosity are also considered and some phenomenological generalizations of Fourier's and Newton's laws are obtained.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used, or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively add/remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating dataset consists of the good/poor condition of n=1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p=212) of landscape features from the StreamCat dataset. Two types of RF models are compared: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors, and a reduced variable set model selected using a backwards elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors, and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substanti

A viscoplastic model with application to LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, A. D.; Walker, K. P.

1990-01-01

A viscoplastic model for class M (metal-like behavior) materials is presented. One novel feature is its use of internal variables to change the stress exponent of creep (where n is approximately = 5) to that of natural creep (where n = 3), in accordance with experimental observations. Another feature is the introduction of a coupling in the evolution equations of the kinematic and isotropic internal variables, making thermal recovery of the kinematic variable implicit. These features enable the viscoplastic model to reduce to that of steady-state creep in closed form. In addition, the hardening parameters associated with the two internal state variables (one scalar-valued, the other tensor-valued) are considered to be functions of state, instead of being taken as constant-valued. This feature enables each internal variable to represent a much wider spectrum of internal states for the material. The model is applied to a LiF-22 percent CaF2 hypereutectic salt, which is being considered as a thermal energy storage material for space-based solar dynamic power systems.

Using combined hydrological variables for extracting functional signatures of catchments to better assess the acceptability of model structures in conceptual catchment modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Hrachowitz, M.; RUIZ, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Savenije, H.

2013-12-01

While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics of a system, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. This is likely to make them inadequate to simulate solutes transport. For example, the hysteresis between storage and discharge, which is often observed in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely well reproduced by models. One main reason is that this hysteresis has little weight in the calibration because objective functions are based on time series of individual variables. This reduces the ability of classical calibration/validation procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypothesis associated with hydrological models. Calibrating models on variables derived from the combination of different individual variables (like stream discharge and groundwater levels) is a way to insure that models will be accepted based on their consistency. Here we therefore test the value of this more systems-like approach to test different hypothesis on the behaviour of a small experimental low-land catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys) where a high hysteresis is observed on the stream flow vs. shallow groundwater level relationship. Several conceptual models were applied to this site, and calibrated using objective functions based on metrics of this hysteresis. The tested model structures differed with respect to the storage function in each reservoir, the storage-discharge function in each reservoir, the deep loss expressions (as constant or variable fraction), the number of reservoirs (from 1 to 4) and their organization (parallel, series). The observed hysteretic groundwater level-discharge relationship was not satisfactorily reproduced by most of the tested models except for the most complex ones. Those were thus more consistent, their underlying hypotheses are probably more realistic even though their performance for simulating observed stream flow was decreased. Selecting models based on such systems-like approach is likely to improve their efficiency for environmental application e.g. on solute transport issues. The next step would be to apply the same approach with variables combining hydrological and biogeochemical variables.

Impact of internal variability on projections of Sahel precipitation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monerie, Paul-Arthur; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Pohl, Benjamin; Robson, Jon; Dong, Buwen

2017-11-01

The impact of the increase of greenhouse gases on Sahelian precipitation is very uncertain in both its spatial pattern and magnitude. In particular, the relative importance of internal variability versus external forcings depends on the time horizon considered in the climate projection. In this study we address the respective roles of the internal climate variability versus external forcings on Sahelian precipitation by using the data from the CESM Large Ensemble Project, which consists of a 40 member ensemble performed with the CESM1-CAM5 coupled model for the period 1920-2100. We show that CESM1-CAM5 is able to simulate the mean and interannual variability of Sahel precipitation, and is representative of a CMIP5 ensemble of simulations (i.e. it simulates the same pattern of precipitation change along with equivalent magnitude and seasonal cycle changes as the CMIP5 ensemble mean). However, CESM1-CAM5 underestimates the long-term decadal variability in Sahel precipitation. For short-term (2010-2049) and mid-term (2030-2069) projections the simulated internal variability component is able to obscure the projected impact of the external forcing. For long-term (2060-2099) projections external forcing induced change becomes stronger than simulated internal variability. Precipitation changes are found to be more robust over the central Sahel than over the western Sahel, where climate change effects struggle to emerge. Ten (thirty) members are needed to separate the 10 year averaged forced response from climate internal variability response in the western Sahel for a long-term (short-term) horizon. Over the central Sahel two members (ten members) are needed for a long-term (short-term) horizon.

Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Xiao-Tong; Hui, Chang; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2018-06-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability.

Echocardiographic Assessment of Left Atrial Size and Function in Warmblood Horses: Reference Intervals, Allometric Scaling, and Agreement of Different Echocardiographic Variables.

PubMed

Huesler, I M; Mitchell, K J; Schwarzwald, C C

2016-07-01

Echocardiographic assessment of left atrial (LA) size and function in horses is not standardized. The aim of this study was to establish reference intervals for echocardiographic indices of LA size and function in Warmblood horses and to provide proof of concept for allometric scaling of variables and for the clinical use of area-based indices. Thirty-one healthy Warmblood horses and 91 Warmblood horses with a primary diagnosis of mitral regurgitation (MR) or aortic regurgitation (AR). Retrospective study. Echocardiographic indices of LA size and function were measured and scaled to body weight (BWT). Reference intervals were calculated, the influence of BWT, age, and valvular regurgitation on LA size and function was investigated and agreement between different measurements of LA size was assessed. Allometric scaling of variables of LA size allowed for correction of differences in BWT. Indices of LA size documented LA enlargement with moderate and severe MR and AR, whereas most indices of LA mechanical function were not significantly altered by valvular regurgitation. Different indices of LA size were in fair to good agreement but still lead to discordant conclusions with regard to assessment of LA enlargement in individual horses. Allometric scaling of echocardiographic variables of LA size is advised to correct for differences in BWT among Warmblood horses. Assessment of LA dimensions should be based on an integrative approach combining subjective evaluation and assessment of multiple measurements, including area-based variables. The clinical relevance of indices of LA mechanical function remains unclear when used in horses with mitral or aortic regurgitation. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Fetal, neonatal, infant, and child international growth standards: an unprecedented opportunity for an integrated approach to assess growth and development.

PubMed

Garza, Cutberto

2015-07-01

The recent publication of fetal growth and gestational age-specific growth standards by the International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century Project and the previous publication by the WHO of infant and young child growth standards based on the WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study enable evaluations of growth from ∼9 wk gestation to 5 y. The most important features of these projects are the prescriptive approach used for subject selection and the rigorous testing of the assertion that growth is very similar among geographically and ethnically diverse nonisolated populations when health, nutrition, and other care needs are met and the environment imposes minimal constraints on growth. Both studies documented that with adequate controls, the principal source of variability in growth during gestation and early childhood resides among individuals. Study sites contributed much less to observed variability. The agreement between anthropometric measurements common to both studies also is noteworthy. Jointly, these studies provide for the first time, to my knowledge, a conceptually consistent basis for worldwide and localized assessments and comparisons of growth performance in early life. This is an important contribution to improving the health care of children across key periods of growth and development, especially given the appropriate interest in pursuing "optimal" health in the "first 1000 d," i.e., the period covering fertilization/implantation, gestation, and postnatal life to 2 y of age. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

A cost effective 5΄ selective single cell transcriptome profiling approach with improved UMI design

PubMed Central

Arguel, Marie-Jeanne; LeBrigand, Kevin; Paquet, Agnès; Ruiz García, Sandra; Zaragosi, Laure-Emmanuelle; Waldmann, Rainer

2017-01-01

Abstract Single cell RNA sequencing approaches are instrumental in studies of cell-to-cell variability. 5΄ selective transcriptome profiling approaches allow simultaneous definition of the transcription start size and have advantages over 3΄ selective approaches which just provide internal sequences close to the 3΄ end. The only currently existing 5΄ selective approach requires costly and labor intensive fragmentation and cell barcoding after cDNA amplification. We developed an optimized 5΄ selective workflow where all the cell indexing is done prior to fragmentation. With our protocol, cell indexing can be performed in the Fluidigm C1 microfluidic device, resulting in a significant reduction of cost and labor. We also designed optimized unique molecular identifiers that show less sequence bias and vulnerability towards sequencing errors resulting in an improved accuracy of molecule counting. We provide comprehensive experimental workflows for Illumina and Ion Proton sequencers that allow single cell sequencing in a cost range comparable to qPCR assays. PMID:27940562

Progress in Quantitative Viral Load Testing: Variability and Impact of the WHO Quantitative International Standards

PubMed Central

Sun, Y.; Tang, L.; Procop, G. W.; Hillyard, D. R.; Young, S. A.; Caliendo, A. M.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT It has been hoped that the recent availability of WHO quantitative standards would improve interlaboratory agreement for viral load testing; however, insufficient data are available to evaluate whether this has been the case. Results from 554 laboratories participating in proficiency testing surveys for quantitative PCR assays of cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), BK virus (BKV), adenovirus (ADV), and human herpesvirus 6 (HHV6) were evaluated to determine overall result variability and then were stratified by assay manufacturer. The impact of calibration to international units/ml (CMV and EBV) on variability was also determined. Viral loads showed a high degree of interlaboratory variability for all tested viruses, with interquartile ranges as high as 1.46 log10 copies/ml and the overall range for a given sample up to 5.66 log10 copies/ml. Some improvement in result variability was seen when international units were adopted. This was particularly the case for EBV viral load results. Variability in viral load results remains a challenge across all viruses tested here; introduction of international quantitative standards may help reduce variability and does so more or less markedly for certain viruses. PMID:27852673

Unified Static and Dynamic Recrystallization Model for the Minerals of Earth's Mantle Using Internal State Variable Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, H. E.; Horstemeyer, M. F.; Baumgardner, J. R.

2017-12-01

In this study, we present an internal state variable (ISV) constitutive model developed to model static and dynamic recrystallization and grain size progression in a unified manner. This method accurately captures temperature, pressure and strain rate effect on the recrystallization and grain size. Because this ISV approach treats dislocation density, volume fraction of recrystallization and grain size as internal variables, this model can simultaneously track their history during the deformation with unprecedented realism. Based on this deformation history, this method can capture realistic mechanical properties such as stress-strain behavior in the relationship of microstructure-mechanical property. Also, both the transient grain size during the deformation and the steady-state grain size of dynamic recrystallization can be predicted from the history variable of recrystallization volume fraction. Furthermore, because this model has a capability to simultaneously handle plasticity and creep behaviors (unified creep-plasticity), the mechanisms (static recovery (or diffusion creep), dynamic recovery (or dislocation creep) and hardening) related to dislocation dynamics can also be captured. To model these comprehensive mechanical behaviors, the mathematical formulation of this model includes elasticity to evaluate yield stress, work hardening in treating plasticity, creep, as well as the unified recrystallization and grain size progression. Because pressure sensitivity is especially important for the mantle minerals, we developed a yield function combining Drucker-Prager shear failure and von Mises yield surfaces to model the pressure dependent yield stress, while using pressure dependent work hardening and creep terms. Using these formulations, we calibrated against experimental data of the minerals acquired from the literature. Additionally, we also calibrated experimental data for metals to show the general applicability of our model. Understanding of realistic mantle dynamics can only be acquired once the various deformation regimes and mechanisms are comprehensively modeled. The results of this study demonstrate that this ISV model is a good modeling candidate to help reveal the realistic dynamics of the Earth's mantle.

A Method for Determining the Nominal Occular Hazard Zone for Gaussian Beam Laser Rangers with a Firmware Controlled Variable Focal Length

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Victor, J. M.; Duron, J. L.; Bowers, W. h.; Gillis, D. B.; VanBaalen, M.

2009-01-01

LIDAR systems that maintain a constant beam spot size on a retroreflector in order to increase the accuracy of bearing and ranging data must use a software controlled variable position lens. These systems periodically update the estimated range and set the position of the focusing lens accordingly. In order to precisely calculate the r NOHD for such a system, the software method for setting the variable position lens and gaussian laser propagation can be used to calculate the irradiance at any point given the range estimation. NASA s Space Shuttle LIDAR, called the Trajectory Control Sensor (TCS), uses this configuration. Analytical tools were developed using Excel and VBA to determine the radiant energy to the International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers eyes while viewing the shuttle on approach and departure. Various viewing scenarios are considered including the use of through-the-lens imaging optics and the window transmissivity at the TCS wavelength. The methodology incorporates the TCS system control logic, gaussian laser propagation, potential failure mode end states, and guidance from American National Standard for the Safe Use of Lasers (ANSI Z136.1-2007). This approach can be adapted for laser safety analyses of similar LIDAR systems.

Socially cooperative choices: An approach to achieving resource sustainability in the coastal zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crance, Colin; Draper, Dianne

1996-03-01

Achieving resource sustainability, particularly in the coastal zone, is complicated by a variety of interdependencies and trade-offs between economic, social, and ecological variables. Although trade-offs between each of these variables are important, this paper emphasizes the social components of resource management. In this regard a distinction is made between individual and cooperative choices. Individual choices frequently are made from a shortterm, self-interested perspective, whereas cooperative choices are made from a long-term, community and resource-sustainability perspective. Typically, when presented with a spectrum of resource management decisions, individuals have a tendency to act in a self-interested manner. Thus, cooperative benefits, such as reduced conflict and improved resource certainty, are not realized. An overview of selected aspects of social dilemma theory suggests that socially cooperative choice outcomes are attainable in coastal zone management by integrating structural and behavioral solutions in resource use decision making. Three barriers to successful integration of structural and behavioral solutions are identified as self-interest, mistrust, and variable perceptions of resource amenities. Examples from coastal zone management indicate that these barriers may be overcome using approaches such as scopereduction, co-management, community education, and local participation. The paper also provides comment on the potential benefits of integrating structural and behavioral solutions in international coastal zone management efforts.

Modern aspects of homogeneous-heterogeneous reactions and variable thickness in nanofluids through carbon nanotubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmed, Sohail; Muhammad, Taseer; Alsaedi, Ahmed

2017-10-01

This article examines homogeneous-heterogeneous reactions and internal heat generation in Darcy-Forchheimer flow of nanofluids with different base fluids. Flow is generated due to a nonlinear stretchable surface of variable thickness. The characteristics of nanofluid are explored using CNTs (single and multi walled carbon nanotubes). Equal diffusion coefficients are considered for both reactants and auto catalyst. The conversion of partial differential equations (PDEs) to ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is done via appropriate transformations. Optimal homotopy approach is implemented for solutions development of governing problems. Averaged square residual errors are computed. The optimal solution expressions of velocity, temperature and concentration are explored through plots by using several values of physical parameters. Further the coefficient of skin friction and local Nusselt number are examined through graphs.

The health professional-patient-relationship in conventional versus complementary and alternative medicine. A qualitative study comparing the perceived use of medical shared decision-making between two different approaches of medicine.

PubMed

Berger, Stephanie; Braehler, Elmar; Ernst, Jochen

2012-07-01

To explore differences between conventional medicine (COM) and complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) regarding the attitude toward and the perceived use of shared decision-making (SDM) from the health professional perspective. Thirty guideline-based interviews with German GPs and nonmedical practitioners were conducted using qualitative analysis for interpretation. The health professional-patient-relationship in CAM differs from that in COM, as SDM is perceived more often. Reasons for this include external context variables (e.g., longer consultation time) and internal provider beliefs (e.g., attitude toward SDM). German health care policy was regarded as one of the most critical factors which affected the relationship between GPs and their patients and their practice of SDM. Differences between COM and CAM regarding the attitude toward and the perceived use of SDM are attributable to diverse concepts of medicine, practice context variables and internal provider factors. Therefore, the perceived feasibility of SDM depends on the complexity of different occupational socialization processes and thus, different value systems between COM and CAM. Implementation barriers such as insufficient communication skills, lacking SDM training or obedient patients should be reduced. Especially in COM, contextual variables such as political restrictions need to be eliminated to successfully implement SDM. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the User Behavior toward Electronic Commerce Stimuli.

PubMed

Lorenzo-Romero, Carlota; Alarcón-Del-Amo, María-Del-Carmen; Gómez-Borja, Miguel-Ángel

2016-01-01

Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response paradigm this research analyzes the main differences between the effects of two types of web technologies: Verbal web technology (i.e., navigational structure as utilitarian stimulus) versus non-verbal web technology (music and presentation of products as hedonic stimuli). Specific webmosphere stimuli have not been examined yet as separate variables and their impact on internal and behavioral responses seems unknown. Therefore, the objective of this research consists in analyzing the impact of these web technologies -which constitute the web atmosphere or webmosphere of a website- on shopping human behavior (i.e., users' internal states -affective, cognitive, and satisfaction- and behavioral responses - approach responses, and real shopping outcomes-) within the retail online store created by computer, taking into account some mediator variables (i.e., involvement, atmospheric responsiveness, and perceived risk). A 2 ("free" versus "hierarchical" navigational structure) × 2 ("on" versus "off" music) × 2 ("moving" versus "static" images) between-subjects computer experimental design is used to test empirically this research. In addition, an integrated methodology was developed allowing the simulation, tracking and recording of virtual user behavior within an online shopping environment. As main conclusion, this study suggests that the positive responses of online consumers might increase when they are allowed to freely navigate the online stores and their experience is enriched by animate gifts and music background. The effect caused by mediator variables modifies relatively the final shopping human behavior.

Clostridium difficile infection in returning travellers

PubMed Central

Stevens, A. Michal; Esposito, Douglas H.; Stoney, Rhett J.; Hamer, Davidson H.; Flores-Figueroa, Jose; Bottieau, Emmanuel; Connor, Bradley A.; Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni; Goorhuis, Abraham; Hynes, Noreen A.; Libman, Michael; Lopez-Velez, Rogelio; McCarthy, Anne E.; von Sonnenburg, Frank; Schwartz, Eli; van Genderen, Perry J.J.; Benson, L. Scott; Leung, Daniel T.

2017-01-01

Background There is increasing recognition of the contribution of community-acquired cases to the global burden of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). The epidemiology of CDI among international travellers is poorly understood, and factors associated with international travel, such as antibiotic use and changes in gut microbiota, could potentially put travellers at higher risk. Methods We summarized demographic, travel-associated and geographic characteristics of travellers with CDI in the GeoSentinel database from 1997 to 2015. We also surveyed GeoSentinel sites to compare various testing indications, approaches, and diagnostic modalities. Results We identified 260 GeoSentinel records, including 187 that satisfied criteria for analysis (confirmed cases in non-immigrant travellers aged >2 years, seen <12 weeks post-travel). CDI was reported in all age groups and in travellers to all world regions; the largest proportions of cases having destinations in Asia (31%), Central/South America or the Caribbean (30%) and Africa (24%). Our site survey revealed substantial heterogeneity of testing approaches between sites; the most commonly used test was the C. difficile toxin gene PCR. Conclusions CDI is encountered in returning international travellers, although there is considerable variability in testing practices. These data underscore the importance of awareness of C. difficile as a potential cause of travel-associated diarrhoea. PMID:28355613

The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation.

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diallo, Ousmane H.

2012-01-01

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Random Survival Forest in practice: a method for modelling complex metabolomics data in time to event analysis.

PubMed

Dietrich, Stefan; Floegel, Anna; Troll, Martina; Kühn, Tilman; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Peters, Anette; Sookthai, Disorn; von Bergen, Martin; Kaaks, Rudolf; Adamski, Jerzy; Prehn, Cornelia; Boeing, Heiner; Schulze, Matthias B; Illig, Thomas; Pischon, Tobias; Knüppel, Sven; Wang-Sattler, Rui; Drogan, Dagmar

2016-10-01

The application of metabolomics in prospective cohort studies is statistically challenging. Given the importance of appropriate statistical methods for selection of disease-associated metabolites in highly correlated complex data, we combined random survival forest (RSF) with an automated backward elimination procedure that addresses such issues. Our RSF approach was illustrated with data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study, with concentrations of 127 serum metabolites as exposure variables and time to development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) as outcome variable. Out of this data set, Cox regression with a stepwise selection method was recently published. Replication of methodical comparison (RSF and Cox regression) was conducted in two independent cohorts. Finally, the R-code for implementing the metabolite selection procedure into the RSF-syntax is provided. The application of the RSF approach in EPIC-Potsdam resulted in the identification of 16 incident T2D-associated metabolites which slightly improved prediction of T2D when used in addition to traditional T2D risk factors and also when used together with classical biomarkers. The identified metabolites partly agreed with previous findings using Cox regression, though RSF selected a higher number of highly correlated metabolites. The RSF method appeared to be a promising approach for identification of disease-associated variables in complex data with time to event as outcome. The demonstrated RSF approach provides comparable findings as the generally used Cox regression, but also addresses the problem of multicollinearity and is suitable for high-dimensional data. © The Author 2016; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Malaria risk assessment and preventive recommendations: a new approach for the Canadian military.

PubMed

Schofield, Steve; Tepper, Martin; Tuck, Jeremy J H

2007-12-01

Western militaries deploying to international locations are often confronted with the threat of malaria. For the Canadian military, the consequent response has been prescriptive-any risk of malaria warrants use of personal protective measures and chemoprophylaxis. In reality, however, malaria risk is highly variable and a one-size-fits-all strategy to mitigation may not be appropriate. In line with this, the Canadian military has revised its approach to malaria risk assessment and preventive response. More effort is now spent on predictive modeling and, where risk is deemed to be low, chemoprophylaxis may not be recommended. We describe here an application of the revised methodology to the recent Canadian military deployment to Kandahar province, Afghanistan.

Closing the loops in biomedical informatics from theory to daily practice.

PubMed

Gaudinat, A

2009-01-01

This article presents the 2009 selection of the best papers in the special section dedicated to biomedical informatics and cybernetics. Synopsis of the articles selected for the IMIA yearbook 2009 Five papers from international peer reviewed journals where selected for this section. Most of the papers have a strong practical orientation in clinical care. And this selection gives a good overview of what is done with "closing loop" approach, particularly during the year 2008. While quite mature for some clinical applications such as mechanical ventilation, it remains a challenge where rules for the decision system could be difficult to identify due to the number of variables. More complex systems with greater Artificial Intelligence approaches will certainly be the next trend for closed-loop applications.

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

2002-01-01

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Internal variability of fine-scale components of meteorological fields in extended-range limited-area model simulations with atmospheric and surface nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Separovic, Leo; Husain, Syed Zahid; Yu, Wei

2015-09-01

Internal variability (IV) in dynamical downscaling with limited-area models (LAMs) represents a source of error inherent to the downscaled fields, which originates from the sensitive dependence of the models to arbitrarily small modifications. If IV is large it may impose the need for probabilistic verification of the downscaled information. Atmospheric spectral nudging (ASN) can reduce IV in LAMs as it constrains the large-scale components of LAM fields in the interior of the computational domain and thus prevents any considerable penetration of sensitively dependent deviations into the range of large scales. Using initial condition ensembles, the present study quantifies the impact of ASN on IV in LAM simulations in the range of fine scales that are not controlled by spectral nudging. Four simulation configurations that all include strong ASN but differ in the nudging settings are considered. In the fifth configuration, grid nudging of land surface variables toward high-resolution surface analyses is applied. The results show that the IV at scales larger than 300 km can be suppressed by selecting an appropriate ASN setup. At scales between 300 and 30 km, however, in all configurations, the hourly near-surface temperature, humidity, and winds are only partly reproducible. Nudging the land surface variables is found to have the potential to significantly reduce IV, particularly for fine-scale temperature and humidity. On the other hand, hourly precipitation accumulations at these scales are generally irreproducible in all configurations, and probabilistic approach to downscaling is therefore recommended.

Proposal of a socio-cognitive-behavioral structural equation model of internalized stigma in people with severe and persistent mental illness.

PubMed

Muñoz, Manuel; Sanz, María; Pérez-Santos, Eloísa; Quiroga, María de Los Ángeles

2011-04-30

The social stigma of mental illness has received much attention in recent years and its effects on diverse variables such as psychiatric symptoms, social functioning, self-esteem, self-efficacy, quality of life, and social integration are well established. However, internalized stigma in people with severe and persistent mental illness has not received the same attention. The aim of the present work was to study the relationships between the principal variables involved in the functioning of internalized stigma (sociodemographic and clinical variables, social stigma, psychosocial functioning, recovery expectations, empowerment, and discrimination experiences) in a sample of people with severe and persistent mental illness (N=108). The main characteristics of the sample and the differences between groups with high and low internalized stigma were analyzed, a correlation analysis of the variables was performed, and a structural equation model, integrating variables of social, cognitive, and behavioral content, was proposed and tested. The results indicate the relationships among social stigma, discrimination experiences, recovery expectation, and internalized stigma and their role in the psychosocial and behavioral outcomes in schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

2011-12-01

Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

Analyzing Variability in Ebola-Related Controls Applied to Returned Travelers in the United States

PubMed Central

Siedner, Mark J.; Stoto, Michael A.

2015-01-01

Public health authorities have adopted entry screening and subsequent restrictions on travelers from Ebola-affected West African countries as a strategy to prevent importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases. We analyzed international, federal, and state policies—principally based on the policy documents themselves and media reports—to evaluate policy variability. We employed means-ends fit analysis to elucidate policy objectives. We found substantial variation in the specific approaches favored by WHO, CDC, and various American states. Several US states impose compulsory quarantine on a broader range of travelers or require more extensive monitoring than recommended by CDC or WHO. Observed differences likely partially resulted from different actors having different policy goals—particularly the federal government having to balance foreign policy objectives less salient to states. Further, some state-level variation appears to be motivated by short-term political goals. We propose recommendations to improve future policies, which include the following: (1) actors should explicitly clarify their objectives, (2) legal authority should be modernized and clarified, and (3) the federal government should consider preempting state approaches that imperil its goals. PMID:26348222

26 CFR 1.467-5 - Section 467 rental agreements with variable interest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 6 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Section 467 rental agreements with variable interest. 1.467-5 Section 1.467-5 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Taxable Year for Which Deductions Taken § 1.467-5 Section 467...

Methodological development for selection of significant predictors explaining fatal road accidents.

PubMed

Dadashova, Bahar; Arenas-Ramírez, Blanca; Mira-McWilliams, José; Aparicio-Izquierdo, Francisco

2016-05-01

Identification of the most relevant factors for explaining road accident occurrence is an important issue in road safety research, particularly for future decision-making processes in transport policy. However model selection for this particular purpose is still an ongoing research. In this paper we propose a methodological development for model selection which addresses both explanatory variable and adequate model selection issues. A variable selection procedure, TIM (two-input model) method is carried out by combining neural network design and statistical approaches. The error structure of the fitted model is assumed to follow an autoregressive process. All models are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method where the model parameters are assigned non-informative prior distributions. The final model is built using the results of the variable selection. For the application of the proposed methodology the number of fatal accidents in Spain during 2000-2011 was used. This indicator has experienced the maximum reduction internationally during the indicated years thus making it an interesting time series from a road safety policy perspective. Hence the identification of the variables that have affected this reduction is of particular interest for future decision making. The results of the variable selection process show that the selected variables are main subjects of road safety policy measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Multidimensional structure of employee motivation - Clustering approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gąsior, Marcin; Skowron, Łukasz; Sak-Skowron, Monika

2014-12-01

Employees' motivation along with their satisfaction with work is one of the most significant factors determining functioning and the success of an organization on the market. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that motivation to work is a phenomenon whose nature is different among subsequent employees not only in terms of its general level, but also internal structure, and checking whether among various possible structures of motivation there is repeatability which could prove the existence of specific regularities and enabling possible classification of employees. Reasoning with regard to internal structure of motivation was conducted on the basis of the designated 14 variables expressing it, which included both internal factors (feelings) and external (actions), both positive and negative in its meaning. The conducted research consisted in segmentation of the surveyed employees using the generalized method of k-means, in order to separate groups with the same subsequent intensity profiles, so designated variables. By way of research, five various groups of employees were found. Each has a unique, different profile of motivation, at the same time, in each of them a different satisfaction level of the employed was observed. The analysis leads to a conclusion that the motivation profile itself is not completely connected with the perceived satisfaction with work. While signs of motivation positive in nature are usually stronger among satisfied employees, and the weaker - among dissatisfied ones, we cannot speak about a similar regularity when it comes to factors of negative nature. Furthermore, the presented research shows that within negative factors, larger intensification can be observed among ones of internal nature, while among these of external nature - it is smaller.

A notable difference between ideal gas and infinite molar volume limit of van der Waals gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q. H.; Shen, Y.; Bai, R. L.; Wang, X.

2010-05-01

The van der Waals equation of state does not sufficiently represent a gas unless a thermodynamic potential with two proper and independent variables is simultaneously determined. The limiting procedures under which the behaviour of the van der Waals gas approaches that of an ideal gas are letting two van der Waals coefficients be zero rather than letting the molar volume become infinitely large; otherwise, the partial derivative of internal energy with respect to pressure at a fixed temperature does not vanish.

Evaluation of internal noise methods for Hotelling observers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yani; Pham, Binh T.; Eckstein, Miguel P.

2005-04-01

Including internal noise in computer model observers to degrade model observer performance to human levels is a common method to allow for quantitatively comparisons of human and model performance. In this paper, we studied two different types of methods for injecting internal noise to Hotelling model observers. The first method adds internal noise to the output of the individual channels: a) Independent non-uniform channel noise, b) Independent uniform channel noise. The second method adds internal noise to the decision variable arising from the combination of channel responses: a) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's standard deviation due to the external noise, b) internal noise standard deviation proportional to decision variable's variance caused by the external noise. We tested the square window Hotelling observer (HO), channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), and Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling observer (LGHO). The studied task was detection of a filling defect of varying size/shape in one of four simulated arterial segment locations with real x-ray angiography backgrounds. Results show that the internal noise method that leads to the best prediction of human performance differs across the studied models observers. The CHO model best predicts human observer performance with the channel internal noise. The HO and LGHO best predict human observer performance with the decision variable internal noise. These results might help explain why previous studies have found different results on the ability of each Hotelling model to predict human performance. Finally, the present results might guide researchers with the choice of method to include internal noise into their Hotelling models.

A novel approach to the experimental study on methane/steam reforming kinetics using the Orthogonal Least Squares method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sciazko, Anna; Komatsu, Yosuke; Brus, Grzegorz; Kimijima, Shinji; Szmyd, Janusz S.

2014-09-01

For a mathematical model based on the result of physical measurements, it becomes possible to determine their influence on the final solution and its accuracy. However, in classical approaches, the influence of different model simplifications on the reliability of the obtained results are usually not comprehensively discussed. This paper presents a novel approach to the study of methane/steam reforming kinetics based on an advanced methodology called the Orthogonal Least Squares method. The kinetics of the reforming process published earlier are divergent among themselves. To obtain the most probable values of kinetic parameters and enable direct and objective model verification, an appropriate calculation procedure needs to be proposed. The applied Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method includes all the experimental results into the mathematical model which becomes internally contradicted, as the number of equations is greater than number of unknown variables. The GLS method is adopted to select the most probable values of results and simultaneously determine the uncertainty coupled with all the variables in the system. In this paper, the evaluation of the reaction rate after the pre-determination of the reaction rate, which was made by preliminary calculation based on the obtained experimental results over a Nickel/Yttria-stabilized Zirconia catalyst, was performed.

Analyzing Personal Happiness from Global Survey and Weather Data: A Geospatial Approach.

PubMed

Peng, Yi-Fan; Tang, Jia-Hong; Fu, Yang-chih; Fan, I-chun; Hor, Maw-Kae; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-01-01

Past studies have shown that personal subjective happiness is associated with various macro- and micro-level background factors, including environmental conditions, such as weather and the economic situation, and personal health behaviors, such as smoking and exercise. We contribute to this literature of happiness studies by using a geospatial approach to examine both macro and micro links to personal happiness. Our geospatial approach incorporates two major global datasets: representative national survey data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and corresponding world weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). After processing and filtering 55,081 records of ISSP 2011 survey data from 32 countries, we extracted 5,420 records from China and 25,441 records from 28 other countries. Sensitivity analyses of different intervals for average weather variables showed that macro-level conditions, including temperature, wind speed, elevation, and GDP, are positively correlated with happiness. To distinguish the effects of weather conditions on happiness in different seasons, we also adopted climate zone and seasonal variables. The micro-level analysis indicated that better health status and eating more vegetables or fruits are highly associated with happiness. Never engaging in physical activity appears to make people less happy. The findings suggest that weather conditions, economic situations, and personal health behaviors are all correlated with levels of happiness.

A discerning approach to simple aesthetic orthodontics.

PubMed

Noar, J H; Sharma, S; Roberts-Harry, D; Qureshi, T

2015-02-16

There is currently considerable interest from general dental practitioners (GDPs) in the use of simple orthodontics to treat adult malocclusions. There is controversy in this, particularly in relation to 'quick fixes', simple orthodontics and 'straight teeth in six months' as opposed to more conventional treatment where the whole malocclusion is treated. This article will present a case for the use of simple aesthetic adult orthodontics in a measured and planned way. It will discuss the processes, planning and the importance of consent. It will also highlight how digital technology is used to preview, consent and execute an aesthetic result. Many of the recent systems emerging, have been as a result of the demand and supply of cosmetic dentistry. This, to a degree, has not helped since the implication of a 'quick-fix' is associated with this field. There has also been discussion on what the limits of GDP orthodontics should be. There is variability in how GDPs approach orthodontics, their experience, skill and ability to treat to an acceptable standard. Short courses may be one way of delivering orthodontic training but some of these courses are not regulated and the amount of internal mentoring is variable. This article highlights some of the systems in use, and potential upsides and downsides of this approach.

Assessing drivers of export orientation in the subsea oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Aarstad, Jarle; Pettersen, Inger Beate; Jakobsen, Stig-Erik

2015-01-01

The purpose of this short study was to identify the drivers of export orientation of firms in the subsea oil and gas industry in Western Norway. As the oil fields in the North Sea are approaching a stage of maturity, gaining knowledge of these drivers is crucial. An online survey was conducted of firms operating in the subsea oil and gas industry in the region. Consistent with previous research, the data reveal that product innovation and a majority share of international ownership increase firms' export rates. The use of instrumental variables indicates that both product innovation and international ownership are causes of subsea petroleum exports. The study moreover finds that subcontractors have a lower rate of direct exports than system providers, but international ownership in particular boosts subcontractors' export rates, probably by decreasing their market dependency on regional system providers. A clear recommendation for managers and stakeholders is that they should encourage foreign investments throughout the value chain. The results of such a strategy appear to be especially positive for subcontractors.

Probing a 2-aminobenzimidazole library for binding to RNA internal loops via two-dimensional combinatorial screening.

PubMed

Velagapudi, Sai Pradeep; Pushechnikov, Alexei; Labuda, Lucas P; French, Jonathan M; Disney, Matthew D

2012-11-16

There are many potential RNA drug targets in bacterial, viral, and human transcriptomes. However, there are few small molecules that modulate RNA function. This is due, in part, to a lack of fundamental understanding about RNA-ligand interactions including the types of small molecules that bind to RNA structural elements and the RNA structural elements that bind to small molecules. In an effort to better understand RNA-ligand interactions, we diversified the 2-aminobenzimidazole core (2AB) and probed the resulting library for binding to a library of RNA internal loops. We chose the 2AB core for these studies because it is a privileged scaffold for binding RNA based on previous reports. These studies identified that N-methyl pyrrolidine, imidazole, and propylamine diversity elements at the R1 position increase binding to internal loops; variability at the R2 position is well tolerated. The preferred RNA loop space was also determined for five ligands using a statistical approach and identified trends that lead to selective recognition.

Knee mechanics during planned and unplanned sidestepping: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brown, Scott R; Brughelli, Matt; Hume, Patria A

2014-11-01

Knee joint mechanics during sidestepping are associated with anterior cruciate ligament injury. Unplanned sidestepping more closely emulates game scenarios when compared with planned sidestepping by limiting decision time, increasing knee loading and challenging the integrity of soft-tissue structures in the knee. It is important to quantify the loads that may challenge the integrity of the knee during planned and unplanned sidestepping. Our objective was to review literature on knee mechanics during planned and unplanned phases of sidestepping. PubMed, CINAHL, MEDLINE (EBSCO), SPORTDiscus and Web of Science were searched using the terms knee mechanics OR knee kine*, AND plan*, unplan*, anticipat*, unanticipat*, side*, cut* or chang*. A systematic approach was used to evaluate 4,629 records. Records were excluded when not available in English, only available in abstract of conference proceedings, not involving a change-of-direction sidestep, not comparing planned and unplanned or maintaining a running velocity greater than 2 m s(−1). Included studies were evaluated independently by two authors using a custom-designed methodological quality assessment derived from the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale and then confirmed by a third author. Only six studies met the inclusion criteria and were retained for meta-analysis. Magnitude-based inferences were used to assess the standardised effect of the differences between planned and unplanned sidestepping. Knee angles and knee moments were extracted and reported for flexion/extension, abduction/adduction and internal/external rotation for initial contact, weight acceptance, peak push-off and final push-off phases of sidestepping. For kinematic variables, unplanned sidestepping produced a wide range of small to large increases in knee extension angles, small and moderate increases in knee abduction angles and a small increase in internal rotation angle relative to planned sidestepping during the sidestepping manoeuvre. For kinetic variables, unplanned sidestepping produced mostly small (small to large) increases in knee flexor moments, small to moderate increases in knee abductor moments and mostly moderate (small to large) increases in internal rotator moments relative to planned sidestepping. Approach velocity constraints during the sidestepping manoeuvre were lifted due to the low number of eligible studies. The varying approach velocities included (ranging from 3.0 to 5.5 m s(−1)) may impact the kinematic and kinetic variables examined in this review. Differences in knee mechanics between planned and unplanned sidestepping exist. The most substantial effects occurred during the weight acceptance phase of sidestepping. It seems that biomechanical factors commonly associated with anterior cruciate ligament injury risk are affected the most during the loading phase compared with peak push-off; made evident in the coronal (abductor) and transverse (internal rotator) knee kinetic data presented in this review. The authors of this review propose a rationale for the incorporation of unplanned sport tasks in the development of anterior cruciate ligament injury screening and in prophylactic training programmes.

M2 Internal Tides and Their Observed Wavenumber Spectra from Satellite Altimetry*

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, R. D.; Zaron, E. D.

2015-01-01

A near-global chart of surface elevations associated with the stationary M2 internal tide is empirically constructed from multi-mission satellite altimeter data. An advantage of a strictly empirical mapping approach is that results are independent of assumptions about ocean wave dynamics and, in fact, can be used to test such assumptions. A disadvantage is that present-day altimeter coverage is only marginally adequate to support mapping such short-wavelength features. Moreover, predominantly north-south ground-track orientations and contamination from nontidal oceanographic variability can lead to deficiencies in mapped tides. Independent data from Cryosphere Satellite-2 (CryoSat-2) and other altimeters are used to test the solutions and show positive reduction in variance except in regions of large mesoscale variability. The tidal fields are subjected to two-dimensional wavenumber spectral analysis, which allows for the construction of an empirical map of modal wavelengths. Mode-1 wavelengths show good agreement with theoretical wavelengths calculated from the ocean's mean stratification, with a few localized exceptions (e.g., Tasman Sea). Mode-2 waves are detectable in much of the ocean, with wavelengths in reasonable agreement with theoretical expectations, but their spectral signatures grow too weak to map in some regions.

Linear time-dependent reference intervals where there is measurement error in the time variable-a parametric approach.

PubMed

Gillard, Jonathan

2015-12-01

This article re-examines parametric methods for the calculation of time specific reference intervals where there is measurement error present in the time covariate. Previous published work has commonly been based on the standard ordinary least squares approach, weighted where appropriate. In fact, this is an incorrect method when there are measurement errors present, and in this article, we show that the use of this approach may, in certain cases, lead to referral patterns that may vary with different values of the covariate. Thus, it would not be the case that all patients are treated equally; some subjects would be more likely to be referred than others, hence violating the principle of equal treatment required by the International Federation for Clinical Chemistry. We show, by using measurement error models, that reference intervals are produced that satisfy the requirement for equal treatment for all subjects. © The Author(s) 2011.

Editorial: Papers from the 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology - Cultural Diversity, Environmental Variability

Treesearch

Margaret S. Devall; Elaine K. Sutherland

2008-01-01

The 7th International Conference on Dendrochronology - Cultural Diversity, Environmental Variability was held in Beijing, China from 11 to 17 June 2006. The conference was organized and hosted by the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IB_CAS) in conjunction with the International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) Working Group 5.01.07 (Tree-...

Structured Ordinary Least Squares: A Sufficient Dimension Reduction approach for regressions with partitioned predictors and heterogeneous units.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Chiaromonte, Francesca; Li, Bing

2017-06-01

In many scientific and engineering fields, advanced experimental and computing technologies are producing data that are not just high dimensional, but also internally structured. For instance, statistical units may have heterogeneous origins from distinct studies or subpopulations, and features may be naturally partitioned based on experimental platforms generating them, or on information available about their roles in a given phenomenon. In a regression analysis, exploiting this known structure in the predictor dimension reduction stage that precedes modeling can be an effective way to integrate diverse data. To pursue this, we propose a novel Sufficient Dimension Reduction (SDR) approach that we call structured Ordinary Least Squares (sOLS). This combines ideas from existing SDR literature to merge reductions performed within groups of samples and/or predictors. In particular, it leads to a version of OLS for grouped predictors that requires far less computation than recently proposed groupwise SDR procedures, and provides an informal yet effective variable selection tool in these settings. We demonstrate the performance of sOLS by simulation and present a first application to genomic data. The R package "sSDR," publicly available on CRAN, includes all procedures necessary to implement the sOLS approach. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Advances in In Vitro and In Silico Tools for Toxicokinetic Dose ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent advances in vitro assays, in silico tools, and systems biology approaches provide opportunities for refined mechanistic understanding for chemical safety assessment that will ultimately lead to reduced reliance on animal-based methods. With the U.S. commercial chemical landscape encompassing thousands of chemicals with limited data, safety assessment strategies that reliably predict in vivo systemic exposures and subsequent in vivo effects efficiently are a priority. Quantitative in vitro-in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE) is a methodology that facilitates the explicit and quantitative application of in vitro experimental data and in silico modeling to predict in vivo system behaviors and can be applied to predict chemical toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics and also population variability. Tiered strategies that incorporate sufficient information to reliably inform the relevant decision context will facilitate acceptance of these alternative data streams for safety assessments. This abstract does not necessarily reflect U.S. EPA policy. This talk will provide an update to an international audience on the state of science being conducted within the EPA’s Office of Research and Development to develop and refine approaches that estimate internal chemical concentrations following a given exposure, known as toxicokinetics. Toxicokinetic approaches hold great potential in their ability to link in vitro activities or toxicities identified during high-throughput screen

Food and water security scenarios for East Africa over next 20 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.

2013-12-01

Broad areas of East Africa face chronic water and agricultural insecurity. Over the last decade, the region has experienced frequent drought events leading to food security emergencies and even famine in Somalia in 2011. The impact of these drought events, associated with recent declines in rainfall during major growing seasons, has been particularly severe due to the high vulnerability of subsistence agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods, rapid population growth, and the limited availability of resources for agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded activity that brings together international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and food security information in Africa and other regions of the developing world. To assist USAID with planning agricultural development strategies over the next ten years in East Africa, FEWS NET is partnering with climate scientists and adaptation specialists at regional institutions to study and assess future changes in precipitation and temperature in light of global climate change, natural climate variability, and their related impacts on agricultural and water security in the region. The overarching objective of this study is to provide future scenarios of food and water security (as estimated by trends in soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) for East Africa. We do so by following two approaches: Constructed Analogs and the Composite Delta Method. In the first approach we downscaled climate projections (precipitation and temperature projections) of long-term Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) experiments over (a) historical (1850-2005) and (b) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2006-2030) periods. Current climate is characterized by two ENSO modes, the intensity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the strength of the Indo-Pacific warming signal (IPWS). These modes are used in conjunction with CMIP5-estimates of IPWS to project 2030 climate conditions. In the second approach we use the much simpler Composite Delta Method to generate climate projections. Future climate projections are generated by simply altering the mean observed climate to match the mean climate of the climate model projections. Projections of precipitation and temperature from both approaches were then used to drive NASA's FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) to simulate the hydrologic variables most relevant to agriculture and water security: runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These outputs inform 2030 food and water security scenarios for East Africa. Finally we also investigate the impact of precipitation versus temperature changes on agriculture and water security in East Africa. We do so by keeping either one of those forcings constant while using the actual projections of the other variable to generate projections of hydrologic variables as described above.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helton, A. M.; Poole, G. C.; Payn, R. A.; Izurieta, C.; Wright, M.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Stanford, J. A.

2014-12-01

The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change). One type of change, the 'inverse storage effect' is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies.

Internal versus external controls on age variability: Definitions, origins and implications in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C. J.

2015-12-01

The unsteadiness of stream water age is now well established, but the controls on the age dynamics, and the adequate representation and prediction of those dynamics, are not. A basic distinction can be made between internal variability that arises from changes in the proportions of flow moving through the diverse flow pathways of a hydrologic system, and external variability that arises from the stochasticity of inputs and outputs (such as precipitation and streamflow). In this talk I will show how these two types of age variability can be formally defined and distinguished within the framework of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions. Internal variability implies variations in time in the rSAS function, while external variability does not. This leads naturally to the definition of several modes of internal variability, reflecting generic ways that system flowpaths may be rearranged. This rearrangement may be induced by fluctuations in the system state (such as catchment wetness), or by longer-term changes in catchment structure (such as land use change). One type of change, the 'inverse storage effect' is characterized by an increase in the release of young water from the system in response to an increase in overall system storage. This effect can be seen in many hydrologic settings, and has important implications for the effect of altered hydroclimatic conditions on solute transport through a landscape. External variability, such as increased precipitation, can induce a decrease in mean transit time (and vice versa), but this effect is greatly enhanced if accompanied by an internal shift in flow pathways that increases the relative importance of younger water. These effects will be illustrated using data from field and experimental studies.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 6: risk of bias assessment.

PubMed

Waddington, Hugh; Aloe, Ariel M; Becker, Betsy Jane; Djimeu, Eric W; Hombrados, Jorge Garcia; Tugwell, Peter; Wells, George; Reeves, Barney

2017-09-01

Rigorous and transparent bias assessment is a core component of high-quality systematic reviews. We assess modifications to existing risk of bias approaches to incorporate rigorous quasi-experimental approaches with selection on unobservables. These are nonrandomized studies using design-based approaches to control for unobservable sources of confounding such as difference studies, instrumental variables, interrupted time series, natural experiments, and regression-discontinuity designs. We review existing risk of bias tools. Drawing on these tools, we present domains of bias and suggest directions for evaluation questions. The review suggests that existing risk of bias tools provide, to different degrees, incomplete transparent criteria to assess the validity of these designs. The paper then presents an approach to evaluating the internal validity of quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. We conclude that tools for nonrandomized studies of interventions need to be further developed to incorporate evaluation questions for quasi-experiments with selection on unobservables. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Significance of genome-wide association studies in molecular anthropology.

PubMed

Gupta, Vipin; Khadgawat, Rajesh; Sachdeva, Mohinder Pal

2009-12-01

The successful advent of a genome-wide approach in association studies raises the hopes of human geneticists for solving a genetic maze of complex traits especially the disorders. This approach, which is replete with the application of cutting-edge technology and supported by big science projects (like Human Genome Project; and even more importantly the International HapMap Project) and various important databases (SNP database, CNV database, etc.), has had unprecedented success in rapidly uncovering many of the genetic determinants of complex disorders. The magnitude of this approach in the genetics of classical anthropological variables like height, skin color, eye color, and other genome diversity projects has certainly expanded the horizons of molecular anthropology. Therefore, in this article we have proposed a genome-wide association approach in molecular anthropological studies by providing lessons from the exemplary study of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. We have also highlighted the importance and uniqueness of Indian population groups in facilitating the design and finding optimum solutions for other genome-wide association-related challenges.

Vascular risk reduction during anterior surgical approach sacroiliac joint plating.

PubMed

Alla, Sreenivasa R; Roberts, Craig S; Ojike, Nwakile I

2013-02-01

Open reduction and internal fixation of sacroiliac (SI) joint is often performed through an anterior approach. However, there were no studies to our knowledge which described the "at risk area" for injury to the nutrient artery as it relates to open reduction and internal fixation of the SI joint. The purpose of this study was to determine the "at risk area" for the nutrient artery during anterior surgical approaches to the SI joint and to define the safe location of the plate for SI joint fixation. Six right and five left hemipelvises (three male and three female cadavers) were dissected with a mean age of 72 years (range, 51-90 years). Three bony landmarks including the pelvic brim, anterior SI joint line, and the anterior superior iliac spine (ASIS) were identified to quantify the measurements. Three different measurements were taken: from the nutrient foramen to the anterior SI joint line; from the nutrient foramen to the nearest point on the pelvic brim; from the nutrient foramen to ASIS using a flexible ruler with a 1mm base. The nutrient artery courses across the SI joint to enter into the nutrient foramen. Whilst exposing the internal surface of the SI joint, the nutrient foramen was identified at a mean distance of 88.1mm medial to ASIS, 20.1mm above the pelvic brim, and 20.1mm lateral to SI joint. The variability of the location of the nutrient foramen was identified and was located from 80mm to 95mm medial to the ASIS, 12mm to 25mm lateral to the SI joint, and 16mm to 30mm above the pelvic brim. Familiarity of the vasculature of the internal pelvis is of utmost importance for the surgeon when considering operative fixation of the anterior SI joint. We were able to identify the relation of the nutrient artery to the anatomic landmarks of the internal pelvis and to define the "at risk area" for the nutrient artery. We believe increased understanding of the anatomy of the nutrient artery will aid in the avoidance of vascular complications during internal fixation of the anterior SI joint. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multidisciplinary design integration system for a supersonic transport aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dovi, A. R.; Wrenn, G. A.; Barthelemy, J.-F. M.; Coen, P. G.; Hall, L. E.

1992-01-01

An aircraft preliminary design system which provides the multidisciplinary communications and couplings between several engineering disciplines is described. A primary benefit of this system is to demonstrate advanced technology multidisciplinary design integration methodologies. The current version includes the disciplines of aerodynamics and structures. Contributing engineering disciplines are coupled using the Global Sensitivity Equation approach to influence the global design optimization problem. A high speed civil transport configuration is used for configuration trade studies. Forty four independent design variables are used to control the cross-sectional areas of wing rib and spar caps and the thicknesses of wingskincover panels. A total of 300 stress, strain, buckling and displacement behavioral constraints and minimum gages on the design variables were used to optimize the idealized wing structure. The goal of the designs to resize the wing cover panels and internal structure for minimum mass.

Hydration level is an internal variable for computing motivation to obtain water rewards in monkeys.

PubMed

Minamimoto, Takafumi; Yamada, Hiroshi; Hori, Yukiko; Suhara, Tetsuya

2012-05-01

In the process of motivation to engage in a behavior, valuation of the expected outcome is comprised of not only external variables (i.e., incentives) but also internal variables (i.e., drive). However, the exact neural mechanism that integrates these variables for the computation of motivational value remains unclear. Besides, the signal of physiological needs, which serves as the primary internal variable for this computation, remains to be identified. Concerning fluid rewards, the osmolality level, one of the physiological indices for the level of thirst, may be an internal variable for valuation, since an increase in the osmolality level induces drinking behavior. Here, to examine the relationship between osmolality and the motivational value of a water reward, we repeatedly measured the blood osmolality level, while 2 monkeys continuously performed an instrumental task until they spontaneously stopped. We found that, as the total amount of water earned increased, the osmolality level progressively decreased (i.e., the hydration level increased) in an individual-dependent manner. There was a significant negative correlation between the error rate of the task (the proportion of trials with low motivation) and the osmolality level. We also found that the increase in the error rate with reward accumulation can be well explained by a formula describing the changes in the osmolality level. These results provide a biologically supported computational formula for the motivational value of a water reward that depends on the hydration level, enabling us to identify the neural mechanism that integrates internal and external variables.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting and treating individuals at increased risk of osteoporosis or osteopenia: a systematic review.

PubMed

Müller, Dirk; Pulm, Jannis; Gandjour, Afschin

2012-01-01

To compare cost-effectiveness modeling analyses of strategies to prevent osteoporotic and osteopenic fractures either based on fixed thresholds using bone mineral density or based on variable thresholds including bone mineral density and clinical risk factors. A systematic review was performed by using the MEDLINE database and reference lists from previous reviews. On the basis of predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, we identified relevant studies published since January 2006. Articles included for the review were assessed for their methodological quality and results. The literature search resulted in 24 analyses, 14 of them using a fixed-threshold approach and 10 using a variable-threshold approach. On average, 70% of the criteria for methodological quality were fulfilled, but almost half of the analyses did not include medication adherence in the base case. The results of variable-threshold strategies were more homogeneous and showed more favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with those based on a fixed threshold with bone mineral density. For analyses with fixed thresholds, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios varied from €80,000 per quality-adjusted life-year in women aged 55 years to cost saving in women aged 80 years. For analyses with variable thresholds, the range was €47,000 to cost savings. Risk assessment using variable thresholds appears to be more cost-effective than selecting high-risk individuals by fixed thresholds. Although the overall quality of the studies was fairly good, future economic analyses should further improve their methods, particularly in terms of including more fracture types, incorporating medication adherence, and including or discussing unrelated costs during added life-years. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of Satellite-based Remote Sensing to inform Evapotranspiration parameters in Cropping System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhungel, S.; Barber, M. E.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this paper are to use an automated satellite-based remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) model to assist in parameterization of a cropping system model (CropSyst) and to examine the variability of consumptive water use of various crops across the watershed. The remote sensing model is a modified version of the Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC™) energy balance model. We present the application of an automated python-based implementation of METRIC to estimate ET as consumptive water use for agricultural areas in three watersheds in Eastern Washington - Walla Walla, Lower Yakima and Okanogan. We used these ET maps with USDA crop data to identify the variability of crop growth and water use for the major crops in these three watersheds. Some crops, such as grapes and alfalfa, showed high variability in water use in the watershed while others, such as corn, had comparatively less variability. The results helped us to estimate the range and variability of various crop parameters that are used in CropSyst. The paper also presents a systematic approach to estimate parameters of CropSyst for a crop in a watershed using METRIC results. Our initial application of this approach was used to estimate irrigation application rate for CropSyst for a selected farm in Walla Walla and was validated by comparing crop growth (as Leaf Area Index - LAI) and consumptive water use (ET) from METRIC and CropSyst. This coupling of METRIC with CropSyst will allow for more robust parameters in CropSyst and will enable accurate predictions of changes in irrigation practices and crop rotation, which are a challenge in many cropping system models.

A finite element model of conduction, convection, and phase change near a solid/melt interface. Ph.D. Thesis - Michigan Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viterna, Larry A.

1991-01-01

Detailed understanding of heat transfer and fluid flow is required for many aerospace thermal systems. These systems often include phase change and operate over a range of accelerations or effective gravitational fields. An approach to analyzing such systems is presented which requires the simultaneous solution of the conservation laws of energy, momentum, and mass, as well as an equation of state. The variable property form of the governing equations are developed in two-dimensional Cartesian coordinates for a Newtonian fluid. A numerical procedure for solving the governing equations is presented and implemented in a computer program. The Galerkin form of the finite element method is used to solve the spatial variation of the field variables, along with the implicit Crank-Nicolson time marching algorithm. Quadratic Langrangian elements are used for the internal energy and the two components of velocity. Linear Lagrangian elements are used for the pressure. The location of the solid/liquid interface as well as the temperatures are determined form the calculated internal energy and pressure. This approach is quite general in that it can describe heat transfer without phase change, phase change with a sharp interface, and phase change without an interface. Analytical results from this model are compared to those of other researchers studying transient conduction, convection, and phase change and are found to be in good agreement. The numerical procedure presented requires significant computer resources, but this is not unusual when compared to similar studies by other researchers. Several methods are suggested to reduce the computational times.

Social but safe? Quality and safety of diabetes-related online social networks.

PubMed

Weitzman, Elissa R; Cole, Emily; Kaci, Liljana; Mandl, Kenneth D

2011-05-01

To foster informed decision-making about health social networking (SN) by patients and clinicians, the authors evaluated the quality/safety of SN sites' policies and practices. Multisite structured observation of diabetes-focused SN sites. Measurements 28 indicators of quality and safety covering: (1) alignment of content with diabetes science and clinical practice recommendations; (2) safety practices for auditing content, supporting transparency and moderation; (3) accessibility of privacy policies and the communication and control of privacy risks; and (4) centralized sharing of member data and member control over sharing. Quality was variable across n=10 sites: 50% were aligned with diabetes science/clinical practice recommendations with gaps in medical disclaimer use (30% have) and specification of relevant glycosylated hemoglobin levels (0% have). Safety was mixed with gaps in external review approaches (20% used audits and association links) and internal review approaches (70% use moderation). Internal safety review offers limited protection: misinformation about a diabetes 'cure' was found on four moderated sites. Of nine sites with advertising, transparency was missing on five; ads for unfounded 'cures' were present on three. Technological safety was poor with almost no use of procedures for secure data storage and transmission; only three sites support member controls over personal information. Privacy policies' poor readability impedes risk communication. Only three sites (30%) demonstrated better practice. Limitations English-language diabetes sites only. The quality/safety of diabetes SN is variable. Observed better practice suggests improvement is feasible. Mechanisms for improvement are recommended that engage key stakeholders to balance autonomy, community ownership, conditions for innovation, and consumer protection.

Spatial Variance in Resting fMRI Networks of Schizophrenia Patients: An Independent Vector Analysis

PubMed Central

Gopal, Shruti; Miller, Robyn L.; Michael, Andrew; Adali, Tulay; Cetin, Mustafa; Rachakonda, Srinivas; Bustillo, Juan R.; Cahill, Nathan; Baum, Stefi A.; Calhoun, Vince D.

2016-01-01

Spatial variability in resting functional MRI (fMRI) brain networks has not been well studied in schizophrenia, a disease known for both neurodevelopmental and widespread anatomic changes. Motivated by abundant evidence of neuroanatomical variability from previous studies of schizophrenia, we draw upon a relatively new approach called independent vector analysis (IVA) to assess this variability in resting fMRI networks. IVA is a blind-source separation algorithm, which segregates fMRI data into temporally coherent but spatially independent networks and has been shown to be especially good at capturing spatial variability among subjects in the extracted networks. We introduce several new ways to quantify differences in variability of IVA-derived networks between schizophrenia patients (SZs = 82) and healthy controls (HCs = 89). Voxelwise amplitude analyses showed significant group differences in the spatial maps of auditory cortex, the basal ganglia, the sensorimotor network, and visual cortex. Tests for differences (HC-SZ) in the spatial variability maps suggest, that at rest, SZs exhibit more activity within externally focused sensory and integrative network and less activity in the default mode network thought to be related to internal reflection. Additionally, tests for difference of variance between groups further emphasize that SZs exhibit greater network variability. These results, consistent with our prediction of increased spatial variability within SZs, enhance our understanding of the disease and suggest that it is not just the amplitude of connectivity that is different in schizophrenia, but also the consistency in spatial connectivity patterns across subjects. PMID:26106217

A numerical simulation approach to studying anterior cruciate ligament strains and internal forces among young recreational women performing valgus inducing stop-jump activities.

PubMed

Kar, Julia; Quesada, Peter M

2012-08-01

Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries are commonly incurred by recreational and professional women athletes during non-contact jumping maneuvers in sports like basketball and volleyball, where incidences of ACL injury is more frequent to females compared to males. What remains a numerical challenge is in vivo calculation of ACL strain and internal force. This study investigated effects of increasing stop-jump height on neuromuscular and bio-mechanical properties of knee and ACL, when performed by young female recreational athletes. The underlying hypothesis is increasing stop-jump (platform) height increases knee valgus angles and external moments which also increases ACL strain and internal force. Using numerical analysis tools comprised of Inverse Kinematics, Computed Muscle Control and Forward Dynamics, a novel approach is presented for computing ACL strain and internal force based on (1) knee joint kinematics and (2) optimization of muscle activation, with ACL insertion into musculoskeletal model. Results showed increases in knee valgus external moments and angles with increasing stop-jump height. Increase in stop-jump height from 30 to 50 cm lead to increase in average peak valgus external moment from 40.5 ± 3.2 to 43.2 ± 3.7 Nm which was co-incidental with increase in average peak ACL strain, from 9.3 ± 3.1 to 13.7 ± 1.1%, and average peak ACL internal force, from 1056.1 ± 71.4 to 1165.4 ± 123.8 N for the right side with comparable increases in the left. In effect this study demonstrates a technique for estimating dynamic changes to knee and ACL variables by conducting musculoskeletal simulation on motion analysis data, collected from actual stop-jump tasks performed by young recreational women athletes.

Developing Passenger Demand Models for International Aviation from/to Egypt: A Case Study of Cairo Airport and Egyptair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbas, Khaled A.; Fattah, Nabil Abdel; Reda, Hala R.

2003-01-01

This research is concerned with developing passenger demand models for international aviation from/to Egypt. In this context, aviation sector in Egypt is represented by the biggest and main airport namely Cairo airport as well as by the main Egyptian international air carrier namely Egyptair. The developed models utilize two variables to represent aviation demand, namely total number of international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport as well as total number of passengers using Egyptair international flights originating from and attracted to Cairo airport. Such demand variables were related, using different functional forms, to several explanatory variables including population, GDP and number of foreign tourists. Finally, two models were selected based on their logical acceptability, best fit and statistical significance. To demonstrate usefulness of developed models, these were used to forecast future demand patterns.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: AAVSO International Variable Star Index VSX (Watson+, 2006-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, C.; Henden, A. A.; Price, A.

2017-05-01

This file contains Galactic stars known or suspected to be variable. It lists all stars that have an entry in the AAVSO International Variable Star Index (VSX; http://www.aavso.org/vsx). The database consisted initially of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) and the New Catalogue of Suspected Variables (NSV) and was then supplemented with a large number of variable star catalogues, as well as individual variable star discoveries or variables found in the literature. Effort has also been invested to update the entries with the latest information regarding position, type and period and to remove duplicates. The VSX database is being continually updated and maintained. For historical reasons some objects outside of the Galaxy have been included. (3 data files).

VizieR Online Data Catalog: AAVSO International Variable Star Index VSX (Watson+, 2006-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, C.; Henden, A. A.; Price, A.

2018-05-01

This file contains Galactic stars known or suspected to be variable. It lists all stars that have an entry in the AAVSO International Variable Star Index (VSX; http://www.aavso.org/vsx). The database consisted initially of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) and the New Catalogue of Suspected Variables (NSV) and was then supplemented with a large number of variable star catalogues, as well as individual variable star discoveries or variables found in the literature. Effort has also been invested to update the entries with the latest information regarding position, type and period and to remove duplicates. The VSX database is being continually updated and maintained. For historical reasons some objects outside of the Galaxy have been included. (3 data files).

Sampling-based ensemble segmentation against inter-operator variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Jing; Okada, Kazunori; Pope, Whitney; Brown, Matthew

2011-03-01

Inconsistency and a lack of reproducibility are commonly associated with semi-automated segmentation methods. In this study, we developed an ensemble approach to improve reproducibility and applied it to glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumor segmentation on T1-weigted contrast enhanced MR volumes. The proposed approach combines samplingbased simulations and ensemble segmentation into a single framework; it generates a set of segmentations by perturbing user initialization and user-specified internal parameters, then fuses the set of segmentations into a single consensus result. Three combination algorithms were applied: majority voting, averaging and expectation-maximization (EM). The reproducibility of the proposed framework was evaluated by a controlled experiment on 16 tumor cases from a multicenter drug trial. The ensemble framework had significantly better reproducibility than the individual base Otsu thresholding method (p<.001).

The nutritional requirements of infants. Towards EU alignment of reference values: the EURRECA network.

PubMed

Hermoso, Maria; Tabacchi, Garden; Iglesia-Altaba, Iris; Bel-Serrat, Silvia; Moreno-Aznar, Luis A; García-Santos, Yurena; García-Luzardo, Ma del Rosario; Santana-Salguero, Beatriz; Peña-Quintana, Luis; Serra-Majem, Lluis; Moran, Victoria Hall; Dykes, Fiona; Decsi, Tamás; Benetou, Vassiliki; Plada, Maria; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Raats, Monique M; Doets, Esmée L; Berti, Cristiana; Cetin, Irene; Koletzko, Berthold

2010-10-01

This paper presents a review of the current knowledge regarding the macro- and micronutrient requirements of infants and discusses issues related to these requirements during the first year of life. The paper also reviews the current reference values used in European countries and the methodological approaches used to derive them by a sample of seven European and international authoritative committees from which background scientific reports are available. Throughout the paper, the main issues contributing to disparities in micronutrient reference values for infants are highlighted. The identification of these issues in relation to the specific physiological aspects of infants is important for informing future initiatives aimed at providing standardized approaches to overcome variability of micronutrient reference values across Europe for this age group. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Pfister, Gabriele G; Nychka, Doug

2016-03-01

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Quality by design approach: application of artificial intelligence techniques of tablets manufactured by direct compression.

PubMed

Aksu, Buket; Paradkar, Anant; de Matas, Marcel; Ozer, Ozgen; Güneri, Tamer; York, Peter

2012-12-01

The publication of the International Conference of Harmonization (ICH) Q8, Q9, and Q10 guidelines paved the way for the standardization of quality after the Food and Drug Administration issued current Good Manufacturing Practices guidelines in 2003. "Quality by Design", mentioned in the ICH Q8 guideline, offers a better scientific understanding of critical process and product qualities using knowledge obtained during the life cycle of a product. In this scope, the "knowledge space" is a summary of all process knowledge obtained during product development, and the "design space" is the area in which a product can be manufactured within acceptable limits. To create the spaces, artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to emphasize the multidimensional interactions of input variables and to closely bind these variables to a design space. This helps guide the experimental design process to include interactions among the input variables, along with modeling and optimization of pharmaceutical formulations. The objective of this study was to develop an integrated multivariate approach to obtain a quality product based on an understanding of the cause-effect relationships between formulation ingredients and product properties with ANNs and genetic programming on the ramipril tablets prepared by the direct compression method. In this study, the data are generated through the systematic application of the design of experiments (DoE) principles and optimization studies using artificial neural networks and neurofuzzy logic programs.

Comparison study on flexible pavement design using FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and LCN (Load Classification Number) code in Ahmad Yani international airport’s runway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santoso, S. E.; Sulistiono, D.; Mawardi, A. F.

2017-11-01

FAA code for airport design has been broadly used by Indonesian Ministry of Aviation since decades ago. However, there is not much comprehensive study about its relevance and efficiency towards current situation in Indonesia. Therefore, a further comparison study on flexible pavement design for airport runway using comparable method has become essential. The main focus of this study is to compare which method between FAA and LCN that offer the most efficient and effective way in runway pavement planning. The comparative methods in this study mainly use the variety of variable approach. FAA code for instance, will use the approach on the aircraft’s maximum take-off weight and annual departure. Whilst LCN code use the variable of equivalent single wheel load and tire pressure. Based on the variables mentioned above, a further classification and rated method will be used to determine which code is best implemented. According to the analysis, it is clear that FAA method is the most effective way to plan runway design in Indonesia with consecutively total pavement thickness of 127cm and LCN method total pavement thickness of 70cm. Although, FAA total pavement is thicker that LCN its relevance towards sustainable and pristine condition in the future has become an essential aspect to consider in design and planning.

Assessing concentration uncertainty estimates from passive microwave sea ice products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meier, W.; Brucker, L.; Miller, J. A.

2017-12-01

Sea ice concentration is an essential climate variable and passive microwave derived estimates of concentration are one of the longest satellite-derived climate records. However, until recently uncertainty estimates were not provided. Numerous validation studies provided insight into general error characteristics, but the studies have found that concentration error varied greatly depending on sea ice conditions. Thus, an uncertainty estimate from each observation is desired, particularly for initialization, assimilation, and validation of models. Here we investigate three sea ice products that include an uncertainty for each concentration estimate: the NASA Team 2 algorithm product, the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) product, and the NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record (CDR) product. Each product estimates uncertainty with a completely different approach. The NASA Team 2 product derives uncertainty internally from the algorithm method itself. The OSI-SAF uses atmospheric reanalysis fields and a radiative transfer model. The CDR uses spatial variability from two algorithms. Each approach has merits and limitations. Here we evaluate the uncertainty estimates by comparing the passive microwave concentration products with fields derived from the NOAA VIIRS sensor. The results show that the relationship between the product uncertainty estimates and the concentration error (relative to VIIRS) is complex. This may be due to the sea ice conditions, the uncertainty methods, as well as the spatial and temporal variability of the passive microwave and VIIRS products.

Food security in an era of economic volatility.

PubMed

Naylor, Rosamond L; Falcon, Walter P

2010-01-01

This article analyzes international commodity price movements, assesses food policies in response to price fluctuations, and explores the food security implications of price volatility on low-income groups. It focuses specifically on measurements, causes, and consequences of recent food price trends, variability around those trends, and price spikes. Combining these three components of price dynamics shows that the variation in real prices post-2000 was substantially greater than that in the 1980s and 1990s, and was approximately equal to the extreme volatility in commodity prices that was experienced in the 1970s. Macro policy, exchange rates, and petroleum prices were important determinants of price variability over 2005–2010, highlighting the new linkages between the agriculture-energy and agriculture-finance markets that affect the world food economy today. These linkages contributed in large part to misguided expectations and uncertainty that drove prices to their peak in 2008. The article also argues that there is a long-lasting effect of price spikes on food policy around the world, often resulting in self-sufficiency policies that create even more volatility in international markets. The efforts by governments to stabilize prices frequently contribute to even greater food insecurity among poor households, most of which are in rural areas and survive on the margin of net consumption and net production. Events of 2008—and more recently in 2010—underscore the impact of price variability for food security and the need for refocused policy approaches to prevent and mitigate price spikes.

Evolution of the genetic variability of eight French dairy cattle breeds assessed by pedigree analysis.

PubMed

Danchin-Burge, C; Leroy, G; Brochard, M; Moureaux, S; Verrier, E

2012-06-01

A pedigree analysis was performed on eight French dairy cattle breeds to assess their change in genetic variability since a first analysis completed in 1996. The Holstein, Normande and Montbéliarde breeds are selected internationally with over hundreds of thousands cows registered in the performance recording system. Three breeds are internationally selected but with limited numbers of cows in France (Brown Swiss, French Simmental and French Red Pied). The last two remaining breeds (Abondance and Tarentaise) are raised at regional level. The effective numbers of ancestors of cows born between 2004 and 2007 varied between 15 (Abondance and Tarentaise) and 51 (French Red Pied). The effective population sizes (classical approach) varied between 53 (Abondance) and 197 (French Red Pied). This article also compares the genetic variability of the ex situ (collections of the French National Cryobank) and in situ populations. The results were commented in regard to the recent history of gene flows in the different breeds as well as the existence of more or less stringent bottlenecks. Our results showed that whatever the size of the breeds, their genetic diversity impoverished quite rapidly since 1996 and they all could be considered as quite poor from a genetic diversity point of view. It shows the need for setting up cryobanks as gene reservoirs as well as sustainable breeding programmes that include loss of genetic diversity as an integrated control parameter. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Analyzing the User Behavior toward Electronic Commerce Stimuli

PubMed Central

Lorenzo-Romero, Carlota; Alarcón-del-Amo, María-del-Carmen; Gómez-Borja, Miguel-Ángel

2016-01-01

Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response paradigm this research analyzes the main differences between the effects of two types of web technologies: Verbal web technology (i.e., navigational structure as utilitarian stimulus) versus non-verbal web technology (music and presentation of products as hedonic stimuli). Specific webmosphere stimuli have not been examined yet as separate variables and their impact on internal and behavioral responses seems unknown. Therefore, the objective of this research consists in analyzing the impact of these web technologies –which constitute the web atmosphere or webmosphere of a website– on shopping human behavior (i.e., users’ internal states -affective, cognitive, and satisfaction- and behavioral responses – approach responses, and real shopping outcomes-) within the retail online store created by computer, taking into account some mediator variables (i.e., involvement, atmospheric responsiveness, and perceived risk). A 2 (“free” versus “hierarchical” navigational structure) × 2 (“on” versus “off” music) × 2 (“moving” versus “static” images) between-subjects computer experimental design is used to test empirically this research. In addition, an integrated methodology was developed allowing the simulation, tracking and recording of virtual user behavior within an online shopping environment. As main conclusion, this study suggests that the positive responses of online consumers might increase when they are allowed to freely navigate the online stores and their experience is enriched by animate gifts and music background. The effect caused by mediator variables modifies relatively the final shopping human behavior. PMID:27965549

IESIP - AN IMPROVED EXPLORATORY SEARCH TECHNIQUE FOR PURE INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fogle, F. R.

1994-01-01

IESIP, an Improved Exploratory Search Technique for Pure Integer Linear Programming Problems, addresses the problem of optimizing an objective function of one or more variables subject to a set of confining functions or constraints by a method called discrete optimization or integer programming. Integer programming is based on a specific form of the general linear programming problem in which all variables in the objective function and all variables in the constraints are integers. While more difficult, integer programming is required for accuracy when modeling systems with small numbers of components such as the distribution of goods, machine scheduling, and production scheduling. IESIP establishes a new methodology for solving pure integer programming problems by utilizing a modified version of the univariate exploratory move developed by Robert Hooke and T.A. Jeeves. IESIP also takes some of its technique from the greedy procedure and the idea of unit neighborhoods. A rounding scheme uses the continuous solution found by traditional methods (simplex or other suitable technique) and creates a feasible integer starting point. The Hook and Jeeves exploratory search is modified to accommodate integers and constraints and is then employed to determine an optimal integer solution from the feasible starting solution. The user-friendly IESIP allows for rapid solution of problems up to 10 variables in size (limited by DOS allocation). Sample problems compare IESIP solutions with the traditional branch-and-bound approach. IESIP is written in Borland's TURBO Pascal for IBM PC series computers and compatibles running DOS. Source code and an executable are provided. The main memory requirement for execution is 25K. This program is available on a 5.25 inch 360K MS DOS format diskette. IESIP was developed in 1990. IBM is a trademark of International Business Machines. TURBO Pascal is registered by Borland International.

Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knuth, Kevin H.; Rossow, William B.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

Exploring the control of land-atmospheric oscillations over terrestrial vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Depoorter, Mathieu; Green, Julia; Gentine, Pierre; Liu, Yi; van Eck, Christel; Regnier, Pierre; Dorigo, Wouter; Verhoest, Niko; Miralles, Diego

2015-04-01

Vegetation dynamics play an important role in the climate system due to their control on the carbon, energy and water cycles. The spatiotemporal variability of vegetation is regulated by internal climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing mechanisms, including fires, land use, volcano eruptions or greenhouse gas emissions. Ocean-atmospheric oscillations, affect the fluxes of heat and water over continents, leading to anomalies in radiation, precipitation or temperature at widely separated locations (i.e. teleconnections); an effect of ocean-atmospheric oscillations on terrestrial primary productivity can therefore be expected. While different studies have shown the general importance of internal climate variability for global vegetation dynamics, the control by particular teleconnections over the regional growth and decay of vegetation is still poorly understood. At continental to global scales, satellite remote sensing offers a feasible approach to enhance our understanding of the main drivers of vegetation variability. Traditional studies of the multi-decadal variability of global vegetation have been usually based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), which extends back to the early '80s. There are, however, some limitations to NDVI observations; arguably the most important of these limitations is that from the plant physiology perspective the index does not have a well-defined meaning, appearing poorly correlated to vegetation productivity. On the other hand, recently developed records from other remotely-sensed properties of vegetation, like fluorescence or microwave vegetation optical depth, have proven a significantly better correspondence to above-ground biomass. To enhance our understanding of the controls of ocean-atmosphere oscillations over vegetation, we propose to explore the link between climate oscillation extremes and net primary productivity over the last two decades. The co-variability of a range of climate oscillation indices and newly-derived records of fluorescence and vegetation optical depth is analyzed using a statistical framework based on correlations, bootstrapping and Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). Results will enable us to characterize regional hotspots where particular climatic oscillations control vegetation productivity, as well as allowing us to underpin the climatic variables behind this control.

Parent insights into atypicalities of social approach behaviour in Williams syndrome.

PubMed

Lough, E; Rodgers, J; Janes, E; Little, K; Riby, D M

2016-11-01

Individuals with Williams syndrome have been reported to show high levels of social interest and a desire to interact with others irrespective of their familiarity. This high social motivation, when combined with reduced intellectual capacity and a profile of atypical social behaviour, is important in terms of social vulnerability of individuals with the disorder. Therefore, social approach to unfamiliar people and the role of this behaviour within the Williams syndrome (WS) social phenotype warrant further research to inform social skills' intervention design. The current study used parent interviews (n = 21) to probe aspects of social behaviour and interactions with strangers, as well as the impact of such behaviour on the family. Using thematic analysis, it was possible to explore themes that emerged from the interviews, offering qualitatively rich insight into the variability of social approach behaviour in WS. Thematic analysis confirmed a significant desire to interact with strangers as well as a lack of awareness of appropriate social boundaries. However, parental reports about their child's social approach behaviour varied considerably. The within-syndrome variability of the sample was emphasised in parental reports of their child's personality characteristics (e.g. levels of impulsiveness), as well as the level of parental supervision employed. These in-depth parent insights can help target the needs of individuals with WS and emphasise that an individual approach to intervention will be essential because of the heterogeneity of the WS social profile. © 2016 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Internal and International Mobility as Adaptation to Climatic Variability in Contemporary Mexico: Evidence from the Integration of Census and Satellite Data.

PubMed

Leyk, Stefan; Runfola, Dan; Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Riosmena, Fernando

2017-08-01

Migration provides a strategy for rural Mexican households to cope with, or adapt to, weather events and climatic variability. Yet prior studies on "environmental migration" in this context have not examined the differences between choices of internal (domestic) or international movement. In addition, much of the prior work relied on very coarse spatial scales to operationalize the environmental variables such as rainfall patterns. To overcome these limitations, we use fine-grain rainfall estimates derived from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The rainfall estimates are combined with Population and Agricultural Census information to examine associations between environmental changes and municipal rates of internal and international migration 2005-2010. Our findings suggest that municipal-level rainfall deficits relative to historical levels are an important predictor of both international and internal migration, especially in areas dependent on seasonal rainfall for crop productivity. Although our findings do not contradict results of prior studies using coarse spatial resolution, they offer clearer results and a more spatially nuanced examination of migration as related to social and environmental vulnerability and thus higher degrees of confidence.

Use of the AAVSO's International Variable Star Index (VSX) in an Undergraduate Astronomy Course Capstone Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Kristine

2017-06-01

The author discusses a capstone project that utilizes the AAVSO's International Variable Star Index (VSX), ASAS light curves and phase plots, and the SIMBAD astronomical data repository in a laboratory-based undergraduate Stellar and Galactic Astronomy course.

Electrochemical state and internal variables estimation using a reduced-order physics-based model of a lithium-ion cell and an extended Kalman filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stetzel, KD; Aldrich, LL; Trimboli, MS

2015-03-15

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the present value of electrochemical internal variables in a lithium-ion cell in real time, using readily available measurements of cell voltage, current, and temperature. The variables that can be estimated include any desired set of reaction flux and solid and electrolyte potentials and concentrations at any set of one-dimensional spatial locations, in addition to more standard quantities such as state of charge. The method uses an extended Kalman filter along with a one-dimensional physics-based reduced-order model of cell dynamics. Simulations show excellent and robust predictions having dependable error bounds for most internal variables.more » (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

Determining factors affecting tourism demand for Malaysia using ARDL modeling: A case of Europe countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

2016-10-01

Tourism industry is the second largest foreign exchange earner after manufacturing in Malaysia. With regards to the importance of tourism industry in Malaysia, any factors that influence tourism demand should be considered cautiously by the government and tourism authorities in order to attract more international tourists in the near future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the dynamic long-run and short-run relationship between the number of international tourist arrivals from six European countries and four selected economic variables. The economic variables used in this study are exchange rate, gross domestic product, relative price and substitute relative price. This study also examines the impact of the European Sovereign crisis on the number of arrivals from the selected European countries to Malaysia. The data covers the period from quarter 1 (Q1) of 1999 to quarter 3 (Q3) of 2014 and employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of unit root test show a mixture of integrated at level and order one, I(0) and I(1). The results show that there exist long-run cointegration between the number of international tourist arrivals and exchange rate, level of income, tourism price and substitute tourism price for all countries. Generally, the results show that level of income is in line with the economic theory and Thailand is a competing destination for the tourism industry in Malaysia. Surprisingly, relative price is found to have positive impact on the number of arrivals to Malaysia and this suggests that an increase in the price level in Malaysia is unexpectedly increase the number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia. Therefore the Malaysian government and tourism authorities should continue the efforts to withstand the growth of the tourism industry.

Maternal source of variability in the embryo development of an annual killifish.

PubMed

Polačik, M; Smith, C; Reichard, M

2017-04-01

Organisms inhabiting unpredictable environments often evolve diversified reproductive bet-hedging strategies, expressed as production of multiple offspring phenotypes, thereby avoiding complete reproductive failure. To cope with unpredictable rainfall, African annual killifish from temporary savannah pools lay drought-resistant eggs that vary widely in the duration of embryo development. We examined the sources of variability in the duration of individual embryo development, egg production and fertilization rate in Nothobranchius furzeri. Using a quantitative genetics approach (North Carolina type II design), we found support for maternal effects rather than polyandrous mating as the primary source of the variability in the duration of embryo development. The number of previously laid eggs appeared to serve as an internal physiological cue initiating a shift from rapid-to-slow embryo developmental mode. In annual killifish, extensive phenotypic variability in progeny traits is adaptive, as the conditions experienced by parents have limited relevance to the offspring generation. In contrast to genetic control, with high phenotypic expression and heritability, maternal control of traits under natural selection prevents standing genetic diversity from potentially detrimental effects of selection in fluctuating environments. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Decision making about healthcare-related tests and diagnostic test strategies. Paper 4: International guidelines show variability in their approaches.

PubMed

Mustafa, Reem A; Wiercioch, Wojtek; Arevalo-Rodriguez, Ingrid; Cheung, Adrienne; Prediger, Barbara; Ivanova, Liudmila; Ventresca, Matthew; Brozek, Jan; Santesso, Nancy; Bossuyt, Patrick; Garg, Amit X; Lloyd, Nancy; Lelgemann, Monika; Bühler, Diedrich; Schünemann, Holger J

2017-12-01

The objective of the study was to describe and compare current practices in developing guidelines about the use of healthcare-related tests and diagnostic strategies (HCTDS). We sampled 37 public health and clinical practice guidelines about HCTDS from various sources without language restrictions. Detailed descriptions of the systems used to assess the quality of evidence and develop recommendations were challenging to find within guidelines. We observed much variability among and within organizations with respect to how they develop recommendations about HCTDS. Twenty-four percent of the guidelines did not consider health benefits and harms but based decisions solely on test accuracy. We did not identify guidelines that described the main potential care pathways involving tests for a healthcare problem. In addition, we did not identify guidelines that systematically assessed, described, and referenced the evidence that linked test accuracy and patient-important outcomes. There is considerable variability among the processes used and factors considered in developing recommendations about the use of tests. This variability may be the cause for the disagreement we observed in recommendations about testing for the same condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictability of Subsurface Temperature and the AMOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.

2013-12-01

GEOS 5 coupled model is extensively used for experimental decadal climate prediction. Understanding the limits of decadal ocean predictability is critical for making progress in these efforts. Using this model, we study the subsurface temperature initial value predictability, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its impacts on the global climate. Our approach is to utilize the idealized data assimilation technology developed at the GMAO. The technique 'replay' allows us to assess, for example, the impact of the surface wind stresses and/or precipitation on the ocean in a very well controlled environment. By running the coupled model in replay mode we can in fact constrain the model using any existing reanalysis data set. We replay the model constraining (nudging) it to the MERRA reanalysis in various fields from 1948-2012. The fields, u,v,T,q,ps, are adjusted towards the 6-hourly analyzed fields in atmosphere. The simulated AMOC variability is studied with a 400-year-long segment of replay integration. The 84 cases of 10-year hindcasts are initialized from 4 different replay cycles. Here, the variability and predictability are examined further by a measure to quantify how much the subsurface temperature and AMOC variability has been influenced by atmospheric forcing and by ocean internal variability. The simulated impact of the AMOC on the multi-decadal variability of the SST, sea surface height (SSH) and sea ice extent is also studied.

Viscoplasticity: A thermodynamic formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, A. D.; Chaboche, J. L.

1989-01-01

A thermodynamic foundation using the concept of internal state variables is given for a general theory of viscoplasticity, as it applies to initially isotropic materials. Three fundamental internal state variables are admitted. They are: a tensor valued back stress for kinematic effects, and the scalar valued drag and yield strengths for isotropic effects. All three are considered to phenomenologically evolve according to competitive processes between strain hardening, strain induced dynamic recovery, and time induced static recovery. Within this phenomenological framework, a thermodynamically admissible set of evolution equations is put forth. This theory allows each of the three fundamental internal variables to be composed as a sum of independently evolving constituents.

International students' enrollment in IPTA by using multilevel analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wai, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Karim, Samsul Ariffin Abdul

2012-09-01

The increases of demand on knowledge-based and production-based market force the growth of higher education. International students' enrollment contributes to economic growth and increase country's income, university reputation and name; promote the competitive of education and training markets. This paper used multilevel analysis to study the international students' enrollment in Malaysia public university. Student's background variables and institution background variables were study in this paper and the relationship among them also been investigated. Result shows that institution type is a significance factor on international students' enrollment in Malaysia public university.

The Interplay of Internal and Forced Modes of Hadley Cell Expansion: Lessons from the Global Warming Hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, D. J.; Siler, N.; Xie, S. P.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells show a robust shift poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we us a joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of Hadley Cell variability: (i) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (ii) an internal mode, which identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation with a global climate model. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the TOA radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is found to be essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, Dillon J.; Siler, Nicholas; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-09-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

Linear and nonlinear pattern selection in Rayleigh-Benard stability problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Sanford S.

1993-01-01

A new algorithm is introduced to compute finite-amplitude states using primitive variables for Rayleigh-Benard convection on relatively coarse meshes. The algorithm is based on a finite-difference matrix-splitting approach that separates all physical and dimensional effects into one-dimensional subsets. The nonlinear pattern selection process for steady convection in an air-filled square cavity with insulated side walls is investigated for Rayleigh numbers up to 20,000. The internalization of disturbances that evolve into coherent patterns is investigated and transient solutions from linear perturbation theory are compared with and contrasted to the full numerical simulations.

Cost-effective scat-detection dogs: unleashing a powerful new tool for international mammalian conservation biology.

PubMed

Orkin, Joseph D; Yang, Yuming; Yang, Chunyan; Yu, Douglas W; Jiang, Xuelong

2016-10-10

Recently, detection dogs have been utilized to collect fecal samples from cryptic and rare mammals. Despite the great promise of this technique for conservation biology, its broader application has been limited by the high cost (tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars) and logistical challenges of employing a scat-detection dog team while conducting international, collaborative research. Through an international collaboration of primatologists and the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, we trained and used a detection dog to find scat from three species of unhabituated, free-ranging primates, for less than $3,000. We collected 137 non-human primate fecal samples that we confirmed by sequencing taxonomically informative genetic markers. Our detection dog team had a 92% accuracy rate, significantly outperforming our human-only team. Our results demonstrate that detection dogs can locate fecal samples from unhabituated primates with variable diets, locomotion, and grouping patterns, despite challenging field conditions. We provide a model for in-country training, while also building local capacity for conservation and genetic monitoring. Unlike previous efforts, our approach will allow for the wide adoption of scat-detection dogs in international conservation biology.

Cost-effective scat-detection dogs: unleashing a powerful new tool for international mammalian conservation biology

PubMed Central

Orkin, Joseph D.; Yang, Yuming; Yang, Chunyan; Yu, Douglas W.; Jiang, Xuelong

2016-01-01

Recently, detection dogs have been utilized to collect fecal samples from cryptic and rare mammals. Despite the great promise of this technique for conservation biology, its broader application has been limited by the high cost (tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars) and logistical challenges of employing a scat-detection dog team while conducting international, collaborative research. Through an international collaboration of primatologists and the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, we trained and used a detection dog to find scat from three species of unhabituated, free-ranging primates, for less than $3,000. We collected 137 non-human primate fecal samples that we confirmed by sequencing taxonomically informative genetic markers. Our detection dog team had a 92% accuracy rate, significantly outperforming our human-only team. Our results demonstrate that detection dogs can locate fecal samples from unhabituated primates with variable diets, locomotion, and grouping patterns, despite challenging field conditions. We provide a model for in-country training, while also building local capacity for conservation and genetic monitoring. Unlike previous efforts, our approach will allow for the wide adoption of scat-detection dogs in international conservation biology. PMID:27721442

A new model of wheezing severity in young children using the validated ISAAC wheezing module: A latent variable approach with validation in independent cohorts.

PubMed

Brunwasser, Steven M; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Gold, Diane R; Turi, Kedir N; Stone, Cosby A; Datta, Soma; Gern, James E; Hartert, Tina V

2018-01-01

The International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC) Wheezing Module is commonly used to characterize pediatric asthma in epidemiological studies, including nearly all airway cohorts participating in the Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) consortium. However, there is no consensus model for operationalizing wheezing severity with this instrument in explanatory research studies. Severity is typically measured using coarsely-defined categorical variables, reducing power and potentially underestimating etiological associations. More precise measurement approaches could improve testing of etiological theories of wheezing illness. We evaluated a continuous latent variable model of pediatric wheezing severity based on four ISAAC Wheezing Module items. Analyses included subgroups of children from three independent cohorts whose parents reported past wheezing: infants ages 0-2 in the INSPIRE birth cohort study (Cohort 1; n = 657), 6-7-year-old North American children from Phase One of the ISAAC study (Cohort 2; n = 2,765), and 5-6-year-old children in the EHAAS birth cohort study (Cohort 3; n = 102). Models were estimated using structural equation modeling. In all cohorts, covariance patterns implied by the latent variable model were consistent with the observed data, as indicated by non-significant χ2 goodness of fit tests (no evidence of model misspecification). Cohort 1 analyses showed that the latent factor structure was stable across time points and child sexes. In both cohorts 1 and 3, the latent wheezing severity variable was prospectively associated with wheeze-related clinical outcomes, including physician asthma diagnosis, acute corticosteroid use, and wheeze-related outpatient medical visits when adjusting for confounders. We developed an easily applicable continuous latent variable model of pediatric wheezing severity based on items from the well-validated ISAAC Wheezing Module. This model prospectively associates with asthma morbidity, as demonstrated in two ECHO birth cohort studies, and provides a more statistically powerful method of testing etiologic hypotheses of childhood wheezing illness and asthma.

Standardizing the intrinsic brain: Towards robust measurement of inter-individual variation in 1000 functional connectomes

PubMed Central

Yan, Chao-Gan; Craddock, R. Cameron; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Zang, Yu-Feng; Milham, Michael P.

2014-01-01

As researchers increase their efforts to characterize variations in the functional connectome across studies and individuals, concerns about the many sources of nuisance variation present and their impact on resting state fMRI (R-fMRI) measures continue to grow. Although substantial within-site variation can exist, efforts to aggregate data across multiple sites such as the 1000 Functional Connectomes Project (FCP) and International Neuroimaging Data-sharing Initiative (INDI) datasets amplify these concerns. The present work draws upon standardization approaches commonly used in the microarray gene expression literature, and to a lesser extent recent imaging studies, and compares them with respect to their impact on relationships between common R-fMRI measures and nuisance variables (e.g., imaging site, motion), as well as phenotypic variables of interest (age, sex). Standardization approaches differed with regard to whether they were applied post-hoc vs. during pre-processing, and at the individual vs. group level; additionally they varied in whether they addressed additive effects vs. additive + multiplicative effects, and were parametric vs. non-parametric. While all standardization approaches were effective at reducing undesirable relationships with nuisance variables, post-hoc approaches were generally more effective than global signal regression (GSR). Across approaches, correction for additive effects (global mean) appeared to be more important than for multiplicative effects (global SD) for all R-fMRI measures, with the exception of amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (ALFF). Group-level post-hoc standardizations for mean-centering and variance-standardization were found to be advantageous in their ability to avoid the introduction of artifactual relationships with standardization parameters; though results between individual and group-level post-hoc approaches were highly similar overall. While post-hoc standardization procedures drastically increased test–retest (TRT) reliability for ALFF, modest reductions were observed for other measures after post-hoc standardizations—a phenomena likely attributable to the separation of voxel-wise from global differences among subjects (global mean and SD demonstrated moderate TRT reliability for these measures). Finally, the present work calls into question previous observations of increased anatomical specificity for GSR over mean centering, and draws attention to the near equivalence of global and gray matter signal regression. PMID:23631983

Internal Catchment Process Simulation in a Snow-Dominated Basin: Performance Evaluation with Spatiotemporally Variable Runoff Generation and Groundwater Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuras, P. K.; Weiler, M.; Alila, Y.; Spittlehouse, D.; Winkler, R.

2006-12-01

Hydrologic models have been increasingly used in forest hydrology to overcome the limitations of paired watershed experiments, where vegetative recovery and natural variability obscure the inferences and conclusions that can be drawn from such studies. Models, however, are also plagued by uncertainty stemming from a limited understanding of hydrological processes in forested catchments and parameter equifinality is a common concern. This has created the necessity to improve our understanding of how hydrological systems work, through the development of hydrological measures, analyses and models that address the question: are we getting the right answers for the right reasons? Hence, physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic models should be validated with high-quality experimental data describing multiple concurrent internal catchment processes under a range of hydrologic regimes. The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) frequently used in forest management applications is an example of a process-based model used to address the aforementioned circumstances, and this study takes a novel approach at collectively examining the ability of a pre-calibrated model application to realistically simulate outlet flows along with the spatial-temporal variation of internal catchment processes including: continuous groundwater dynamics at 9 locations, stream and road network flow at 67 locations for six individual days throughout the freshet, and pre-melt season snow distribution. Model efficiency was improved over prior evaluations due to continuous efforts in improving the quality of meteorological data in the watershed. Road and stream network flows were very well simulated for a range of hydrological conditions, and the spatial distribution of the pre-melt season snowpack was in general agreement with observed values. The model was effective in simulating the spatial variability of subsurface flow generation, except at locations where strong stream-groundwater interactions existed, as the model is not capable of simulating such processes and subsurface flows always drain to the stream network. The model has proven overall to be quite capable in realistically simulating internal catchment processes in the watershed, which creates more confidence in future model applications exploring the effects of various forest management scenarios on the watershed's hydrological processes.

Use of the AAVSO's International Variable Star Index (VSX) in an Undergraduate Astronomy Course Capstone Project (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, K.

2017-12-01

(Abstract only) The author discusses a capstone project that utilizes the AAVSO's International Variable Star Index (VSX), ASAS light curves and phase plots, and the SIMBAD astronomical data repository in a laboratory-based undergraduate Stellar and Galactic Astronomy course.

Child Internalizing Symptoms: Contributions of Child Temperament, Maternal Negative Affect, and Family Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Nicole A.; Schrock, Matthew; Woodruff-Borden, Janet

2011-01-01

Research has traditionally focused on the role of genetic and environmental variables in the development and maintenance of childhood internalizing disorders. Temperament variables, such as negative affect and effortful control have gained considerable interest within the field of developmental psychopathology. Environmental factors such as…

Neuronal Reward and Decision Signals: From Theories to Data

PubMed Central

Schultz, Wolfram

2015-01-01

Rewards are crucial objects that induce learning, approach behavior, choices, and emotions. Whereas emotions are difficult to investigate in animals, the learning function is mediated by neuronal reward prediction error signals which implement basic constructs of reinforcement learning theory. These signals are found in dopamine neurons, which emit a global reward signal to striatum and frontal cortex, and in specific neurons in striatum, amygdala, and frontal cortex projecting to select neuronal populations. The approach and choice functions involve subjective value, which is objectively assessed by behavioral choices eliciting internal, subjective reward preferences. Utility is the formal mathematical characterization of subjective value and a prime decision variable in economic choice theory. It is coded as utility prediction error by phasic dopamine responses. Utility can incorporate various influences, including risk, delay, effort, and social interaction. Appropriate for formal decision mechanisms, rewards are coded as object value, action value, difference value, and chosen value by specific neurons. Although all reward, reinforcement, and decision variables are theoretical constructs, their neuronal signals constitute measurable physical implementations and as such confirm the validity of these concepts. The neuronal reward signals provide guidance for behavior while constraining the free will to act. PMID:26109341

International urodynamic basic spinal cord injury data set.

PubMed

Biering-Sørensen, F; Craggs, M; Kennelly, M; Schick, E; Wyndaele, J-J

2008-07-01

To create the International Urodynamic Basic Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Data Set within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets. International working group. The draft of the data set was developed by a working group consisting of members appointed by the Neurourology Committee of the International Continence Society, the European Association of Urology, the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA), the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and a representative of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets. The final version of the data set was developed after review and comments by members of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets, the ISCoS Scientific Committee, ASIA Board, relevant and interested (international) organizations and societies (around 40) and persons and the ISCoS Council. Endorsement of the data set by relevant organizations and societies will be obtained. To make the data set uniform, each variable and each response category within each variable have been specifically defined in a way that is designed to promote the collection and reporting of comparable minimal data. Variables included in the International Urodynamic Basic SCI Data Set are date of data collection, bladder sensation during filling cystometry, detrusor function, compliance during filing cystometry, function during voiding, detrusor leak point pressure, maximum detrusor pressure, cystometric bladder capacity and post-void residual volume.

Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: implications for natural coastal resources and management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thatje, Sven; Heilmayer, Olaf; Laudien, Jürgen

2008-03-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences marine ecosystems and the sustained exploitation of marine resources in the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current upwelling system. Both its warm (El Niño: EN) and cold (La Niña: LN) phase have drastic implications for the ecology, socio-economy and infrastructure along most of Pacific South America. Local artisanal fisheries, which especially suffer from the effects of EN, represent a major part for the domestic economy of Chile and Peru and in consequence a huge amount of published and unpublished studies exists aiming at identifying effects of EN and LN. However, most processes and underlying mechanisms fostering the ecology of organisms along Pacific South America have not been analyzed yet and for the marine realm most knowledge is traditionally based on rather descriptive approaches. We herein advocate that small-scale comparative and interdisciplinary process studies work as one possible solution to understand better the variability observed in EN/LN effects at local scale. We propose that differences in small-scale impacts of ENSO along the coast rather than the macro-ecological and oceanographic view are essential for the sustainable management of costal ecosystems and the livelihood of the people depending on it. Based on this, we summarize the conceptual approach from the EU-funded International Science and Technology Cooperation (INCO) project “Climate variability and El Niño Southern Oscillation: Implications for Natural Coastal Resources and Management (CENSOR)” that aims at enhancing the detection, compilation, and understanding of EN and LN effects on the coastal zone and its natural resources. We promote a multidisciplinary avenue within present international funding schemes, with the intention to bridge the traditional gap between basic and applied coastal research. The long-term aim is an increased mitigation of harm caused by EN as well as a better use of beneficial effects, with the possibility to improve the livelihood of human coastal populations along Pacific South America and taking differences between local socio-economic structures of the countries affected by EN into consideration. The success of such an approach however, does finally rely upon a willingness of the recourse users and the various political and economic stakeholders involved to taking on the message as part of sustainable management strategies.

A system dynamics approach to analyze laboratory test errors.

PubMed

Guo, Shijing; Roudsari, Abdul; Garcez, Artur d'Avila

2015-01-01

Although many researches have been carried out to analyze laboratory test errors during the last decade, it still lacks a systemic view of study, especially to trace errors during test process and evaluate potential interventions. This study implements system dynamics modeling into laboratory errors to trace the laboratory error flows and to simulate the system behaviors while changing internal variable values. The change of the variables may reflect a change in demand or a proposed intervention. A review of literature on laboratory test errors was given and provided as the main data source for the system dynamics model. Three "what if" scenarios were selected for testing the model. System behaviors were observed and compared under different scenarios over a period of time. The results suggest system dynamics modeling has potential effectiveness of helping to understand laboratory errors, observe model behaviours, and provide a risk-free simulation experiments for possible strategies.

The Role of Individual Differences and Situational Variables in the Use of Workplace Sexual Identity Management Strategies.

PubMed

Reed, Louren; Leuty, Melanie E

2016-07-01

Examination of individual difference variables have been largely ignored within research on the use of workplace sexual identity management strategies. The current study examined personality traits (extraversion, openness, and neuroticism), facets of sexual identity development (identity confusion, internalized heterosexism), and situational variables (e.g., perceptions of workplace climate and heterosexism) in explaining the use of management strategies, as well as possible interactions between individual and situational factors. Perceptions of the workplace climate toward lesbian and gay individuals significantly related to the use each of the management strategies, and Internalized Heterosexism was found to significantly predict the use of the Explicitly Out strategy. Most interactions between individual difference and situational variables were not supported, with the exception of an interaction between workplace heterosexism and internalized homophobia in explaining the use of the Explicitly Out strategy.

Analyzing Personal Happiness from Global Survey and Weather Data: A Geospatial Approach

PubMed Central

Peng, Yi-Fan; Tang, Jia-Hong; Fu, Yang-chih; Fan, I-chun; Hor, Maw-Kae; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-01-01

Past studies have shown that personal subjective happiness is associated with various macro- and micro-level background factors, including environmental conditions, such as weather and the economic situation, and personal health behaviors, such as smoking and exercise. We contribute to this literature of happiness studies by using a geospatial approach to examine both macro and micro links to personal happiness. Our geospatial approach incorporates two major global datasets: representative national survey data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and corresponding world weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). After processing and filtering 55,081 records of ISSP 2011 survey data from 32 countries, we extracted 5,420 records from China and 25,441 records from 28 other countries. Sensitivity analyses of different intervals for average weather variables showed that macro-level conditions, including temperature, wind speed, elevation, and GDP, are positively correlated with happiness. To distinguish the effects of weather conditions on happiness in different seasons, we also adopted climate zone and seasonal variables. The micro-level analysis indicated that better health status and eating more vegetables or fruits are highly associated with happiness. Never engaging in physical activity appears to make people less happy. The findings suggest that weather conditions, economic situations, and personal health behaviors are all correlated with levels of happiness. PMID:27078263

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach.

PubMed

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Multi-model attribution of upper-ocean temperature changes using an isothermal approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Min, Seung-Ki; Palmer, Matthew D.; Lee, Donghyun; Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook

2016-06-01

Both air-sea heat exchanges and changes in ocean advection have contributed to observed upper-ocean warming most evident in the late-twentieth century. However, it is predominantly via changes in air-sea heat fluxes that human-induced climate forcings, such as increasing greenhouse gases, and other natural factors such as volcanic aerosols, have influenced global ocean heat content. The present study builds on previous work using two different indicators of upper-ocean temperature changes for the detection of both anthropogenic and natural external climate forcings. Using simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we compare mean temperatures above a fixed isotherm with the more widely adopted approach of using a fixed depth. We present the first multi-model ensemble detection and attribution analysis using the fixed isotherm approach to robustly detect both anthropogenic and natural external influences on upper-ocean temperatures. Although contributions from multidecadal natural variability cannot be fully removed, both the large multi-model ensemble size and properties of the isotherm analysis reduce internal variability of the ocean, resulting in better observation-model comparison of temperature changes since the 1950s. We further show that the high temporal resolution afforded by the isotherm analysis is required to detect natural external influences such as volcanic cooling events in the upper-ocean because the radiative effect of volcanic forcings is short-lived.

Developing Large-Scale Bayesian Networks by Composition: Fault Diagnosis of Electrical Power Systems in Aircraft and Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole Jakob; Poll, Scott; Kurtoglu, Tolga

2009-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)

Vaccine approaches conferring cross-protection against influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Vemula, Sai V.; Sayedahmed, Ekramy E; Sambhara, Suryaprakash; Mittal, Suresh K.

2018-01-01

Introduction Annual vaccination is one of the most efficient and cost-effective strategies to prevent and control influenza epidemics. Most of currently available influenza vaccines are strong inducer of antibody responses against viral surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), but are poor inducers of cell-mediated immune responses against conserved internal proteins. Moreover, due to the high variability of viral surface proteins because of antigenic drift or antigenic shift, many of the currently licensed vaccines confer little or no protection against drift or shift variants. Areas covered Next generation influenza vaccines that can induce humoral immune responses to receptor-binding epitopes as well as broadly neutralizing conserved epitopes, and cell-mediated immune responses against highly conserved internal proteins would be effective against variant viruses as well as a novel pandemic influenza until circulating strain-specific vaccines become available. Here we discuss vaccine approaches that have potential to provide broad spectrum protection against influenza viruses. Expert opinion Based on current progress in defining cross-protective influenza immunity, it seems that the development of a universal influenza vaccine is feasible. It would revolutionize the strategy for influenza pandemic preparedness, and significantly impact the shelf-life and protection efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccines. PMID:28925296

Aggressive behavior and employment histories in patients from an internal medicine outpatient clinic.

PubMed

Sansone, Randy A; Leung, Justin S; Wiederman, Michael W

2013-01-01

A number of studies have examined the relationships between aggression and various facets of the work environment. However, to our knowledge, the relationship between self-reported aggressive behaviors and corresponding employment histories has never been previously explored. Using a cross-sectional approach and a self-report survey methodology in a consecutive sample of 325 internal medicine outpatients, we examined lifetime histories of 21 aggressive behaviors and 4 employment variables. In both men and women, a higher number of aggressive behaviors correlated with a greater number of different jobs held, greater likelihood of being paid "under the table," and a greater number of firings. However, only in men was the number of aggressive behaviors related to the percentage of time employed as an adult. According to findings, a history of aggressive behavior appears to be associated with compromised employment viability in adulthood. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximum entropy analysis of NMR data of flexible multirotor molecules partially oriented in nematic solution: 2,2':5',2″-terthiophene, 2,2'- and 3,3'-dithiophene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldarelli, Stefano; Catalano, Donata; Di Bari, Lorenzo; Lumetti, Marco; Ciofalo, Maurizio; Alberto Veracini, Carlo

1994-07-01

The dipolar couplings observed by NMR spectroscopy of solutes in nematic solvents (LX-NMR) are used to build up the maximum entropy (ME) probability distribution function of the variables describing the orientational and internal motion of the molecule. The ME conformational distributions of 2,2'- and 3,3'-dithiophene and 2,2':5',2″-terthiophene (α-terthienyl)thus obtained are compared with the results of previous studies. The 2,2'- and 3,3'-dithiophene molecules exhibit equilibria among cisoid and transoid forms; the probability maxima correspond to planar and twisted conformers for 2,2'- or 3,3'-dithiophene, respectively, 2,2':5',2″-Terthiophene has two internal degrees of freedom; the ME approach indicates that the trans, trans and cis, trans planar conformations are the most probable. The correlation between the two intramolecular rotations is also discussed.

[How has social status been measured in health research? A review of the international literature].

PubMed

Cabieses, Báltica; Zitko, Pedro; Pinedo, Rafael; Espinoza, Manuel; Albor, Christo

2011-06-01

Social status (SS) is a multidimensional variable that is used widely in health research. There is no single optimal method for estimating social status. Rather, in each case the measurement may vary depending on the research subject, the base theory considered, the population of interest, the event of interest and, in some cases, the available information. This literature review develops the following topics related to SS measurement, based on the international scientific sources available electronically: i) identification of the role of SS in the context of social epidemiology research, ii) description of the principal indicators and methodological approaches used to measure SS in health research, and iii) analysis of the distinct difficulties of SS measurement in specific populations such as ethnic groups, women, children, the elderly, and in rural vs. urban contexts. The review finally makes it possible to describe some of the implications of SS measurement in Latin American countries.

Combination of Competitive Quantitative PCR and Constant-Denaturant Capillary Electrophoresis for High-Resolution Detection and Enumeration of Microbial Cells

PubMed Central

Lim, Eelin L.; Tomita, Aoy V.; Thilly, William G.; Polz, Martin F.

2001-01-01

A novel quantitative PCR (QPCR) approach, which combines competitive PCR with constant-denaturant capillary electrophoresis (CDCE), was adapted for enumerating microbial cells in environmental samples using the marine nanoflagellate Cafeteria roenbergensis as a model organism. Competitive PCR has been used successfully for quantification of DNA in environmental samples. However, this technique is labor intensive, and its accuracy is dependent on an internal competitor, which must possess the same amplification efficiency as the target yet can be easily discriminated from the target DNA. The use of CDCE circumvented these problems, as its high resolution permitted the use of an internal competitor which differed from the target DNA fragment by a single base and thus ensured that both sequences could be amplified with equal efficiency. The sensitivity of CDCE also enabled specific and precise detection of sequences over a broad range of concentrations. The combined competitive QPCR and CDCE approach accurately enumerated C. roenbergensis cells in eutrophic, coastal seawater at abundances ranging from approximately 10 to 104 cells ml−1. The QPCR cell estimates were confirmed by fluorescent in situ hybridization counts, but estimates of samples with <50 cells ml−1 by QPCR were less variable. This novel approach extends the usefulness of competitive QPCR by demonstrating its ability to reliably enumerate microorganisms at a range of environmentally relevant cell concentrations in complex aquatic samples. PMID:11525983

Statistical Compression of Wind Speed Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagle, F.; Castruccio, S.; Crippa, P.; Genton, M.

2017-12-01

In this work we introduce a lossy compression approach that utilizes a stochastic wind generator based on a non-Gaussian distribution to reproduce the internal climate variability of daily wind speed as represented by the CESM Large Ensemble over Saudi Arabia. Stochastic wind generators, and stochastic weather generators more generally, are statistical models that aim to match certain statistical properties of the data on which they are trained. They have been used extensively in applications ranging from agricultural models to climate impact studies. In this novel context, the parameters of the fitted model can be interpreted as encoding the information contained in the original uncompressed data. The statistical model is fit to only 3 of the 30 ensemble members and it adequately captures the variability of the ensemble in terms of seasonal internannual variability of daily wind speed. To deal with such a large spatial domain, it is partitioned into 9 region, and the model is fit independently to each of these. We further discuss a recent refinement of the model, which relaxes this assumption of regional independence, by introducing a large-scale component that interacts with the fine-scale regional effects.

Internalized HIV Stigma and Disclosure Concerns: Development and Validation of Two Scales in Spanish-Speaking Populations.

PubMed

Hernansaiz-Garrido, Helena; Alonso-Tapia, Jesús

2017-01-01

Internalized stigma and disclosure concerns are key elements for the study of mental health in people living with HIV. Since no measures of these constructs were available for Spanish population, this study sought to develop such instruments, to analyze their reliability and validity and to provide a short version. A heterogeneous sample of 458 adults from different Spanish-speaking countries completed the HIV-Internalized Stigma Scale and the HIV-Disclosure Concerns Scale, along with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Rosenberg's Self-esteem Scale and other socio-demographic variables. Reliability and correlation analyses, exploratory factor analyses, path analyses with latent variables, and ANOVAs were conducted to test the scales' psychometric properties. The scales showed good reliability in terms of internal consistency and temporal stability, as well as good sensitivity and factorial and criterion validity. The HIV-Internalized Stigma Scale and the HIV-Disclosure Concerns Scale are reliable and valid means to assess these variables in several contexts.

Dihedral angle principal component analysis of molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Altis, Alexandros; Nguyen, Phuong H; Hegger, Rainer; Stock, Gerhard

2007-06-28

It has recently been suggested by Mu et al. [Proteins 58, 45 (2005)] to use backbone dihedral angles instead of Cartesian coordinates in a principal component analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. Dihedral angles may be advantageous because internal coordinates naturally provide a correct separation of internal and overall motion, which was found to be essential for the construction and interpretation of the free energy landscape of a biomolecule undergoing large structural rearrangements. To account for the circular statistics of angular variables, a transformation from the space of dihedral angles {phi(n)} to the metric coordinate space {x(n)=cos phi(n),y(n)=sin phi(n)} was employed. To study the validity and the applicability of the approach, in this work the theoretical foundations underlying the dihedral angle principal component analysis (dPCA) are discussed. It is shown that the dPCA amounts to a one-to-one representation of the original angle distribution and that its principal components can readily be characterized by the corresponding conformational changes of the peptide. Furthermore, a complex version of the dPCA is introduced, in which N angular variables naturally lead to N eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Applying the methodology to the construction of the free energy landscape of decaalanine from a 300 ns molecular dynamics simulation, a critical comparison of the various methods is given.

Dihedral angle principal component analysis of molecular dynamics simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altis, Alexandros; Nguyen, Phuong H.; Hegger, Rainer; Stock, Gerhard

2007-06-01

It has recently been suggested by Mu et al. [Proteins 58, 45 (2005)] to use backbone dihedral angles instead of Cartesian coordinates in a principal component analysis of molecular dynamics simulations. Dihedral angles may be advantageous because internal coordinates naturally provide a correct separation of internal and overall motion, which was found to be essential for the construction and interpretation of the free energy landscape of a biomolecule undergoing large structural rearrangements. To account for the circular statistics of angular variables, a transformation from the space of dihedral angles {φn} to the metric coordinate space {xn=cosφn,yn=sinφn} was employed. To study the validity and the applicability of the approach, in this work the theoretical foundations underlying the dihedral angle principal component analysis (dPCA) are discussed. It is shown that the dPCA amounts to a one-to-one representation of the original angle distribution and that its principal components can readily be characterized by the corresponding conformational changes of the peptide. Furthermore, a complex version of the dPCA is introduced, in which N angular variables naturally lead to N eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Applying the methodology to the construction of the free energy landscape of decaalanine from a 300ns molecular dynamics simulation, a critical comparison of the various methods is given.

Pitfalls of CITES implementation in Nepal: a policy gap analysis.

PubMed

Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T

2012-08-01

Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

δ 18O in the Tropical Conifer Agathis robusta Records ENSO-Related Precipitation Variations

PubMed Central

Boysen, Bjorn M. M.; Evans, Michael N.; Baker, Patrick J.

2014-01-01

Long-lived trees from tropical Australasia are a potential source of information about internal variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because they occur in a region where precipitation variability is closely associated with ENSO activity. We measured tree-ring width and oxygen isotopic composition (O) of -cellulose from Agathis robusta (Queensland Kauri) samples collected in the Atherton Tablelands, Queensland, Australia. Standard ring-width chronologies yielded low internal consistency due to the frequent presence of false ring-like anatomical features. However, in a detailed examination of the most recent 15 years of growth (1995–2010), we found significant correlation between O and local precipitation, the latter associated with ENSO activity. The results are consistent with process-based forward modeling of the oxygen isotopic composition of -cellulose. The O record also enabled us to confirm the presence of a false growth ring in one of the three samples in the composite record, and to determine that it occurred as a consequence of anomalously low rainfall in the middle of the 2004/5 rainy season. The combination of incremental growth and isotopic measures may be a powerful approach to development of long-term (150+ year) ENSO reconstructions from the terrestrial tropics of Australasia. PMID:25062034

20 MHz Forward-imaging Single-element Beam Steering with an Internal Rotating Variable-Angle Reflecting Surface: Wire phantom and Ex vivo pilot study

PubMed Central

Raphael, David T.; Li, Xiang; Park, Jinhyoung; Chen, Ruimin; Chabok, Hamid; Barukh, Arthur; Zhou, Qifa; Elgazery, Mahmoud; Shung, K. Kirk

2012-01-01

Feasibility is demonstrated for a forward-imaging beam steering system involving a single-element 20 MHz angled-face acoustic transducer combined with an internal rotating variable-angle reflecting surface (VARS). Rotation of the VARS structure, for a fixed position of the transducer, generates a 2-D angular sector scan. If these VARS revolutions were to be accompanied by successive rotations of the single-element transducer, 3-D imaging would be achieved. In the design of this device, a single-element 20 MHz PMN-PT press-focused angled-face transducer is focused on the circle of midpoints of a micro-machined VARS within the distal end of an endoscope. The 2-D imaging system was tested in water bath experiments with phantom wire structures at a depth of 10 mm, and exhibited an axial resolution of 66 μm and a lateral resolution of 520 μm. Chirp coded excitation was used to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, and to increase the depth of penetration. Images of an ex vivo cow eye were obtained. This VARS-based approach offers a novel forward-looking beam-steering method, which could be useful in intra-cavity imaging. PMID:23122968

20 MHz forward-imaging single-element beam steering with an internal rotating variable-angle reflecting surface: Wire phantom and ex vivo pilot study.

PubMed

Raphael, David T; Li, Xiang; Park, Jinhyoung; Chen, Ruimin; Chabok, Hamid; Barukh, Arthur; Zhou, Qifa; Elgazery, Mahmoud; Shung, K Kirk

2013-02-01

Feasibility is demonstrated for a forward-imaging beam steering system involving a single-element 20MHz angled-face acoustic transducer combined with an internal rotating variable-angle reflecting surface (VARS). Rotation of the VARS structure, for a fixed position of the transducer, generates a 2-D angular sector scan. If these VARS revolutions were to be accompanied by successive rotations of the single-element transducer, 3-D imaging would be achieved. In the design of this device, a single-element 20MHz PMN-PT press-focused angled-face transducer is focused on the circle of midpoints of a micro-machined VARS within the distal end of an endoscope. The 2-D imaging system was tested in water bath experiments with phantom wire structures at a depth of 10mm, and exhibited an axial resolution of 66μm and a lateral resolution of 520μm. Chirp coded excitation was used to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio, and to increase the depth of penetration. Images of an ex vivo cow eye were obtained. This VARS-based approach offers a novel forward-looking beam-steering method, which could be useful in intra-cavity imaging. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pitfalls of CITES Implementation in Nepal: A Policy Gap Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dongol, Yogesh; Heinen, Joel T.

2012-08-01

Implementation of policy involves multiple agencies operating at multiple levels in facilitating processes and actions to accomplish desired results. The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) was developed and implemented to regulate and control international wildlife trade, but violations of the agreement are widespread and growing worldwide, including in Nepal. This study attempts to understand how domestic CITES policies are translated into action and what effect actions and processes have on compliance. In doing so, this study provides insights into the implementation and enforcement pitfalls of national legislation that explain CITES violations in Nepal. Primarily, we used 26 key informants interviews to learn opinions of experts, and the grounded theory approach for further qualitative data analysis. In addition, we used Najman's (1995) policy implementation analysis framework to explain gaps. Many interrelated variables in the content of the policy, commitment and capacity of the agencies, the roles of clients and coalitions and contextual issues were observed. Variables that emerged suggest pitfalls in the regulatory policy represented by low probability of detection, arrest and punishment. Moreover, redistributive policies in buffer zones of protected areas are needed into perpetuity to benefit locals. Also, conservation organizations' support for building public and political salience is imperative.

Nonlinear Internal Waves on the Inner Shelf: Observations Using a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. A.; Reid, E. C.; Cohen, A. L.

2016-02-01

Internal waves propagating across the continental slope and shelf are transformed by the competing effects of nonlinear steepening and dispersive spreading, forming nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) that can penetrate onto the shallow inner shelf, often appearing in the form of bottom-propagating nonlinear internal bores or boluses. NLIWs play a significant role in nearshore dynamics with baroclinic current amplitudes on the order of that of wind- and surface wave-driven flows and rapid temperature changes on the order of annual ranges. In June 2014 we used a Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) system to give a continuous cross-shelf view of nonlinear internal wave dynamics on the forereef of Dongsha Atoll, a coral reef in the northern South China Sea. A DTS system measures temperature continuously along the length of an optical fiber, resolving meter-to-kilometer spatial scales. This unique view of cross-shelf temperature structure made it possible to observe internal wave reflection, variable propagation speed across the shelf, bolus formation and dissipation. Additionally, we used the DTS data to track internal waves across the shallow fore reef and onto the reef flat and to quantify spatial patterns in temperature variability. Shoaling internal waves are an important process affecting physical variability and water properties on the reef.

Prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus according to the different criterias

PubMed Central

Akgöl, Evren; Abuşoğlu, Sedat; Gün, Faik Deniz; Ünlü, Ali

2017-01-01

Objective: The two-step approach recommended by the National Diabetes Data Group (NDDG), Carpenter and Coustan (C&C), and O’Sullivan, and the single-step approach recommended by the International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Group (IADPSG) are used to diagnose gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). We aimed to determine GDM prevalence and to compare the two-step and single-step approaches used in the southeastern region of Turkey. Materials and Methods: In total, 3048 records of pregnant women screened for GDM between 2008 and 2014 were retrospectively extracted from our laboratory information system. GDM was defined according to the criteria of NDDG, C&C, and O’Sullivan between in 2008 and 2011, and according to those of the IADPSG between 2012 and 2014. Demographic variables were compared using student’s t-test. The linear trends in GDM prevalence with age were calculated using logistic regression. Results: GDM prevalence was found as 4.8%, 8%, and 13.4% using the NDDG, C&C, and O’Sullivan two-step approach, respectively, and 22.3% with the IADPSG single-step approach. GDM prevalence increased with increasing age in both approaches. Conclusion: GDM prevalence was higher using the single-step approach than with the two-step approach. There was a significant increase in GDM prevalence using the IADPSG criteria. PMID:28913130

Financing of health systems to achieve the health Millennium Development Goals in low-income countries.

PubMed

Fryatt, Robert; Mills, Anne; Nordstrom, Anders

2010-01-30

Concern that underfunded and weak health systems are impeding the achievement of the health Millennium Development Goals in low-income countries led to the creation of a High Level Taskforce on Innovative International Financing for Health Systems in September, 2008. This report summarises the key challenges faced by the Taskforce and its Working Groups. Working Group 1 examined the constraints to scaling up and costs. Challenges included: difficulty in generalisation because of scarce and context-specific health-systems knowledge; no consensus for optimum service-delivery approaches, leading to wide cost differences; no consensus for health benefits; difficulty in quantification of likely efficiency gains; and challenges in quantification of the financing gap owing to uncertainties about financial commitments for health. Working Group 2 reviewed the different innovative mechanisms for raising and channelling funds. Challenges included: variable definitions of innovative finance; small evidence base for many innovative finance mechanisms; insufficient experience in harmonisation of global health initiatives; and inadequate experience in use of international investments to improve maternal, newborn, and child health. The various mechanisms reviewed and finally recommended all had different characteristics, some focusing on specific problems and some on raising resources generally. Contentious issues included the potential role of the private sector, the rights-based approach to health, and the move to results-based aid. The challenges and disagreements that arose during the work of the Taskforce draw attention to the many issues facing decision makers in low-income countries. International donors and recipient governments should work together to improve the evidence base for strengthening health systems, increase long-term commitments, and improve accountability through transparent and inclusive national approaches. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probing a 2-Aminobenzimidazole Library for Binding to RNA Internal Loops via Two-Dimensional Combinatorial Screening

PubMed Central

Velegapudi, Sai Pradeep; Pushechnikov, Alexei; Labuda, Lucas P.; French, Jonathan M.; Disney, Matthew D.

2012-01-01

There are many potential RNA drug targets in bacterial, viral, and the human transcriptomes. However, there are few small molecules that modulate RNA function. This is due, in part, to a lack of fundamental understanding about RNA-ligand interactions including the types of small molecules that bind to RNA structural elements and the RNA structural elements that bind to small molecules. In an effort to better understand RNA-ligand interactions, we diversified the 2-aminobenzimidazole core (2AB) and probed the resulting library for binding to a library of RNA internal loops. We chose the 2AB core for these studies because it is a privileged scaffold for binding RNA based on previous reports. These studies identified that N-methyl pyrrolidine, imidazole, and propylamine diversity elements at the R1 position increase binding to internal loops; variability at the R2 position is well tolerated. The preferred RNA loop space was also determined for five ligands using a statistical approach and identified trends that lead to selective recognition. PMID:22958065

Having been bullied in childhood: relationship to aggressive behaviour in adulthood.

PubMed

Sansone, Randy A; Leung, Justin S; Wiederman, Michael W

2013-12-01

Victimization through being bullied in childhood is traditionally associated with subsequent internalizing symptoms, but some literature suggests otherwise. In this study, we examined a history of being bullied in relationship to 21 externalized aggressive behaviours in adulthood. Using a cross-sectional approach and a self-report survey methodology, we examined a history of being bullied in childhood in relation to 21 aggression variables in a consecutive sample of 342 internal medicine outpatients. In comparison with the not bullied, participants who reported having been bullied in childhood had a statistically significantly greater overall number of self-reported aggressive behaviours. Longer duration of being bullied was statistically significantly correlated with a greater number of reported aggressive behaviours. With regard to individual behaviours, four were statistically significantly associated with being bullied: hitting walls; intentionally breaking things; getting into fist fights; and pushing/shoving a partner. While relationships between bullying in childhood and subsequent internalizing symptoms have been well established, the present study indicates that bullying in childhood is also associated with externalizing/aggressive behaviours in adulthood.

Effects of solid-propellant temperature gradients on the internal ballistics of the Space Shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sforzini, R. H.; Foster, W. A., Jr.; Shackelford, B. W., Jr.

1978-01-01

The internal ballistic effects of combined radial and circumferential grain temperature gradients are evaluated theoretically for the Space Shuttle solid rocket motors (SRMs). A simplified approach is devised for representing with closed-form mathematical expressions the temperature distribution resulting from the anticipated thermal history prior to launch. The internal ballistic effects of the gradients are established by use of a mathematical model which permits the propellant burning rate to vary circumferentially. Comparative results are presented for uniform and axisymmetric temperature distributions and the anticipated gradients based on an earlier two-dimensional analysis of the center SRM segment. The thrust imbalance potential of the booster stage is also assessed based on the difference in the thermal loading of the individual SRMs of the motor pair which may be encountered in both summer and winter environments at the launch site. Results indicate that grain temperature gradients could cause the thrust imbalance to be approximately 10% higher in the Space Shuttle than the imbalance caused by SRM manufacturing and propellant physical property variability alone.

An integrated multidisciplinary algorithm for the management of spinal metastases: an International Spine Oncology Consortium report.

PubMed

Spratt, Daniel E; Beeler, Whitney H; de Moraes, Fabio Y; Rhines, Laurence D; Gemmete, Joseph J; Chaudhary, Neeraj; Shultz, David B; Smith, Sean R; Berlin, Alejandro; Dahele, Max; Slotman, Ben J; Younge, Kelly C; Bilsky, Mark; Park, Paul; Szerlip, Nicholas J

2017-12-01

Spinal metastases are becoming increasingly common because patients with metastatic disease are living longer. The close proximity of the spinal cord to the vertebral column limits many conventional therapeutic options that can otherwise be used to treat cancer. In response to this problem, an innovative multidisciplinary approach has been developed for the management of spinal metastases, leveraging the capabilities of image-guided stereotactic radiosurgery, separation surgery, vertebroplasty, and minimally invasive local ablative approaches. In this Review, we discuss the variables that should be considered during the management of these patients and review the role of each discipline and their respective management options to provide optimal care. This work is synthesised into a practical algorithm to aid clinicians in the management of patients with spinal metastasis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A LATIN-based model reduction approach for the simulation of cycling damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Mainak; Fau, Amelie; Nackenhorst, Udo; Néron, David; Ladevèze, Pierre

2017-11-01

The objective of this article is to introduce a new method including model order reduction for the life prediction of structures subjected to cycling damage. Contrary to classical incremental schemes for damage computation, a non-incremental technique, the LATIN method, is used herein as a solution framework. This approach allows to introduce a PGD model reduction technique which leads to a drastic reduction of the computational cost. The proposed framework is exemplified for structures subjected to cyclic loading, where damage is considered to be isotropic and micro-defect closure effects are taken into account. A difficulty herein for the use of the LATIN method comes from the state laws which can not be transformed into linear relations through an internal variable transformation. A specific treatment of this issue is introduced in this work.

Data-constrained models of quiet and storm-time geosynchronous magnetic field based on observations in the near geospace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreeva, V. A.; Tsyganenko, N. A.

2017-12-01

The geosynchronous orbit is unique in that its nightside segment skims along the boundary, separating the inner magnetosphere with a predominantly dipolar configuration from the magnetotail, where the Earth's magnetic field becomes small relative to the contribution from external sources. The ability to accurately reconstruct the magnetospheric configuration at GEO is important to understand the behavior of plasma and energetic particles, which critically affect space weather in the area densely populated by a host of satellites. To that end, we have developed a dynamical empirical model of the geosynchronous magnetic field with forecasting capability, based on a multi-year set of data taken by THEMIS, Polar, Cluster, Geotail, and Van Allen missions. The model's mathematical structure is devised using a new approach [Andreeva and Tsyganenko, 2016, doi:10.1002/2015JA022242], in which the toroidal/poloidal components of the field are represented using the radial and azimuthal basis functions. The model describes the field as a function of solar-magnetic coordinates, geodipole tilt angle, solar wind pressure, and a set of dynamic variables, quantifying the magnetosphere's response to external driving/loading and internal relaxation/dissipation during the disturbance recovery. The response variables are introduced following the approach by Tsyganenko and Sitnov [2005, doi:10.1029/2004JA010798], in which the electric current dynamics was described as a result of competition between the external energy input and the subsequent internal losses of the injected energy. The model's applicability range extends from quiet to moderately disturbed conditions, with peak Sym-H values -150 nT. The obtained results have been validated using independent GOES magnetometer data, taken during the maximum of the 23rd solar cycle and its declining phase.

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Cook, Edward R.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Seager, Richard; Miller, Ron L.

2010-01-01

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Supersonic propulsion simulation by incorporating component models in the large perturbation inlet (LAPIN) computer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Gary L.; Richard, Jacques C.

1991-01-01

An approach to simulating the internal flows of supersonic propulsion systems is presented. The approach is based on a fairly simple modification of the Large Perturbation Inlet (LAPIN) computer code. LAPIN uses a quasi-one dimensional, inviscid, unsteady formulation of the continuity, momentum, and energy equations. The equations are solved using a shock capturing, finite difference algorithm. The original code, developed for simulating supersonic inlets, includes engineering models of unstart/restart, bleed, bypass, and variable duct geometry, by means of source terms in the equations. The source terms also provide a mechanism for incorporating, with the inlet, propulsion system components such as compressor stages, combustors, and turbine stages. This requires each component to be distributed axially over a number of grid points. Because of the distributed nature of such components, this representation should be more accurate than a lumped parameter model. Components can be modeled by performance map(s), which in turn are used to compute the source terms. The general approach is described. Then, simulation of a compressor/fan stage is discussed to show the approach in detail.

Evaluating Individual Students' Perceptions of Instructional Quality: An Investigation of their Factor Structure, Measurement Invariance, and Relations to Educational Outcomes.

PubMed

Scherer, Ronny; Nilsen, Trude; Jansen, Malte

2016-01-01

Students' perceptions of instructional quality are among the most important criteria for evaluating teaching effectiveness. The present study evaluates different latent variable modeling approaches (confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory structural equation modeling, and bifactor modeling), which are used to describe these individual perceptions with respect to their factor structure, measurement invariance, and the relations to selected educational outcomes (achievement, self-concept, and motivation in mathematics). On the basis of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 large-scale data sets of Australia, Canada, and the USA (N = 26,746 students), we find support for the distinction between three factors of individual students' perceptions and full measurement invariance across countries for all modeling approaches. In this regard, bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling outperformed alternative approaches with respect to model fit. Our findings reveal significant relations to the educational outcomes. This study synthesizes different modeling approaches of individual students' perceptions of instructional quality and provides insights into the nature of these perceptions from an individual differences perspective. Implications for the measurement and modeling of individually perceived instructional quality are discussed.

Development of lifetime comorbidity in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys

PubMed Central

Kessler, Ronald C.; Ormel, Johan; Petukhova, Maria; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Green, Jennifer Greif; Russo, Leo J.; Stein, Dan J.; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Aguilar-Gaxiola, Sergio; Alonso, Jordi; Andrade, Laura; Benjet, Corina; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Demyttenaere, Koen; Fayyad, John; Haro, Josep Maria; Hu, Chi yi; Karam, Aimee; Lee, Sing; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Matchsinger, Herbert; Mihaescu-Pintia, Constanta; Posada-Villa, Jose; Sagar, Rajesh; Üstün, T. Bedirhan

2010-01-01

CONTEXT Although numerous studies have examined the role of latent variables in the structure of comorbidity among mental disorders, none has examined their role in the development of comorbidity. OBJECTIVE To study the role of latent variables in the development of comorbidity among 18 lifetime DSM-IV disorders in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS Nationally or regionally representative community surveys in 14 countries with a total of 21,229 respondents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES First onset of 18 lifetime DSM-IV anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders assessed retrospectively in the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). RESULTS Separate internalizing (anxiety and mood disorders) and externalizing (behavior and substance disorders) factors were found in exploratory factor analysis of lifetime disorders. Consistently significant positive time-lagged associations were found in survival analyses for virtually all temporally primary lifetime disorders predicting subsequent onset of other disorders. Within-domain (i.e., internalizing or externalizing) associations were generally stronger than between-domain associations. The vast majority of time-lagged associations were explained by a model that assumed the existence of mediating latent internalizing and externalizing variables. Specific phobia and obsessive-compulsive disorder (internalizing) and hyperactivity disorder and oppositional-defiant disorder (externalizing) were the most important predictors. A small number of residual associations remained significant after controlling the latent variables. CONCLUSIONS The good fit of the latent variable model suggests that common causal pathways account for most of the comorbidity among the disorders considered here. These common pathways should be the focus of future research on the development of comorbidity, although several important pair-wise associations that cannot be accounted for by latent variables also exist that warrant further focused study. PMID:21199968

Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2013-04-01

The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the initialization procedures tested. It also allows us determine the upper limit of improvement that can be expected if more sophisticated initialization methods are used in decadal prediction simulations and if models have an internal variability agreeing with the observed one. Furthermore, since pseudo-observations are available everywhere at any time step, we also analyse the differences between simulations initialized with a complete dataset of pseudo-observations and the ones for which pseudo-observations data are not assimilated everywhere. In a second step, simulations are realized in a realistic framework, i.e. through the use of actual available observations. The same data assimilation methods are tested in order to check if more sophisticated methods can improve the reliability and the accuracy of decadal prediction simulations, even if they are performed with models that overestimate the internal variability of the sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean.

An exact variational method to calculate rovibrational spectra of polyatomic molecules with large amplitude motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hua-Gen

2016-08-01

We report a new full-dimensional variational algorithm to calculate rovibrational spectra of polyatomic molecules using an exact quantum mechanical Hamiltonian. The rovibrational Hamiltonian of system is derived in a set of orthogonal polyspherical coordinates in the body-fixed frame. It is expressed in an explicitly Hermitian form. The Hamiltonian has a universal formulation regardless of the choice of orthogonal polyspherical coordinates and the number of atoms in molecule, which is suitable for developing a general program to study the spectra of many polyatomic systems. An efficient coupled-state approach is also proposed to solve the eigenvalue problem of the Hamiltonian using a multi-layer Lanczos iterative diagonalization approach via a set of direct product basis set in three coordinate groups: radial coordinates, angular variables, and overall rotational angles. A simple set of symmetric top rotational functions is used for the overall rotation whereas a potential-optimized discrete variable representation method is employed in radial coordinates. A set of contracted vibrationally diabatic basis functions is adopted in internal angular variables. Those diabatic functions are first computed using a neural network iterative diagonalization method based on a reduced-dimension Hamiltonian but only once. The final rovibrational energies are computed using a modified Lanczos method for a given total angular momentum J, which is usually fast. Two numerical applications to CH4 and H2CO are given, together with a comparison with previous results.

Bayesian variable selection for post-analytic interrogation of susceptibility loci.

PubMed

Chen, Siying; Nunez, Sara; Reilly, Muredach P; Foulkes, Andrea S

2017-06-01

Understanding the complex interplay among protein coding genes and regulatory elements requires rigorous interrogation with analytic tools designed for discerning the relative contributions of overlapping genomic regions. To this aim, we offer a novel application of Bayesian variable selection (BVS) for classifying genomic class level associations using existing large meta-analysis summary level resources. This approach is applied using the expectation maximization variable selection (EMVS) algorithm to typed and imputed SNPs across 502 protein coding genes (PCGs) and 220 long intergenic non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) that overlap 45 known loci for coronary artery disease (CAD) using publicly available Global Lipids Gentics Consortium (GLGC) (Teslovich et al., 2010; Willer et al., 2013) meta-analysis summary statistics for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). The analysis reveals 33 PCGs and three lncRNAs across 11 loci with >50% posterior probabilities for inclusion in an additive model of association. The findings are consistent with previous reports, while providing some new insight into the architecture of LDL-cholesterol to be investigated further. As genomic taxonomies continue to evolve, additional classes such as enhancer elements and splicing regions, can easily be layered into the proposed analysis framework. Moreover, application of this approach to alternative publicly available meta-analysis resources, or more generally as a post-analytic strategy to further interrogate regions that are identified through single point analysis, is straightforward. All coding examples are implemented in R version 3.2.1 and provided as supplemental material. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

An exact variational method to calculate rovibrational spectra of polyatomic molecules with large amplitude motion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Hua-Gen, E-mail: hgy@bnl.gov

We report a new full-dimensional variational algorithm to calculate rovibrational spectra of polyatomic molecules using an exact quantum mechanical Hamiltonian. The rovibrational Hamiltonian of system is derived in a set of orthogonal polyspherical coordinates in the body-fixed frame. It is expressed in an explicitly Hermitian form. The Hamiltonian has a universal formulation regardless of the choice of orthogonal polyspherical coordinates and the number of atoms in molecule, which is suitable for developing a general program to study the spectra of many polyatomic systems. An efficient coupled-state approach is also proposed to solve the eigenvalue problem of the Hamiltonian using amore » multi-layer Lanczos iterative diagonalization approach via a set of direct product basis set in three coordinate groups: radial coordinates, angular variables, and overall rotational angles. A simple set of symmetric top rotational functions is used for the overall rotation whereas a potential-optimized discrete variable representation method is employed in radial coordinates. A set of contracted vibrationally diabatic basis functions is adopted in internal angular variables. Those diabatic functions are first computed using a neural network iterative diagonalization method based on a reduced-dimension Hamiltonian but only once. The final rovibrational energies are computed using a modified Lanczos method for a given total angular momentum J, which is usually fast. Two numerical applications to CH{sub 4} and H{sub 2}CO are given, together with a comparison with previous results.« less

Novel high-resolution computed tomography-based radiomic classifier for screen-identified pulmonary nodules in the National Lung Screening Trial.

PubMed

Peikert, Tobias; Duan, Fenghai; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Karwoski, Ronald A; Clay, Ryan; Robb, Richard A; Qin, Ziling; Sicks, JoRean; Bartholmai, Brian J; Maldonado, Fabien

2018-01-01

Optimization of the clinical management of screen-detected lung nodules is needed to avoid unnecessary diagnostic interventions. Herein we demonstrate the potential value of a novel radiomics-based approach for the classification of screen-detected indeterminate nodules. Independent quantitative variables assessing various radiologic nodule features such as sphericity, flatness, elongation, spiculation, lobulation and curvature were developed from the NLST dataset using 726 indeterminate nodules (all ≥ 7 mm, benign, n = 318 and malignant, n = 408). Multivariate analysis was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method for variable selection and regularization in order to enhance the prediction accuracy and interpretability of the multivariate model. The bootstrapping method was then applied for the internal validation and the optimism-corrected AUC was reported for the final model. Eight of the originally considered 57 quantitative radiologic features were selected by LASSO multivariate modeling. These 8 features include variables capturing Location: vertical location (Offset carina centroid z), Size: volume estimate (Minimum enclosing brick), Shape: flatness, Density: texture analysis (Score Indicative of Lesion/Lung Aggression/Abnormality (SILA) texture), and surface characteristics: surface complexity (Maximum shape index and Average shape index), and estimates of surface curvature (Average positive mean curvature and Minimum mean curvature), all with P<0.01. The optimism-corrected AUC for these 8 features is 0.939. Our novel radiomic LDCT-based approach for indeterminate screen-detected nodule characterization appears extremely promising however independent external validation is needed.

Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

VeriML: A Dependently-Typed, User-Extensible and Language-Centric Approach to Proof Assistants

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the locally nameless approach [McKinna and Pollack, 1993]. The former two techniques replace all variables by numbers, whereas the locally nameless ...needs to be reasoned about together with shifting. This complicates both the statements and proofs of related lemmas. The locally nameless approach...the locally nameless approach, we separate free variables from bound variables and use deBruijn indices for bound variables (denoted as bi in Table 3.1

Enhanced model of gear transmission dynamics for condition monitoring applications: Effects of torque, friction and bearing clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-del-Rincon, A.; Garcia, P.; Diez-Ibarbia, A.; de-Juan, A.; Iglesias, M.; Viadero, F.

2017-02-01

Gear transmissions remain as one of the most complex mechanical systems from the point of view of noise and vibration behavior. Research on gear modeling leading to the obtaining of models capable of accurately reproduce the dynamic behavior of real gear transmissions has spread out the last decades. Most of these models, although useful for design stages, often include simplifications that impede their application for condition monitoring purposes. Trying to filling this gap, the model presented in this paper allows us to simulate gear transmission dynamics including most of these features usually neglected by the state of the art models. This work presents a model capable of considering simultaneously the internal excitations due to the variable meshing stiffness (including the coupling among successive tooth pairs in contact, the non-linearity linked with the contacts between surfaces and the dissipative effects), and those excitations consequence of the bearing variable compliance (including clearances or pre-loads). The model can also simulate gear dynamics in a realistic torque dependent scenario. The proposed model combines a hybrid formulation for calculation of meshing forces with a non-linear variable compliance approach for bearings. Meshing forces are obtained by means of a double approach which combines numerical and analytical aspects. The methodology used provides a detailed description of the meshing forces, allowing their calculation even when gear center distance is modified due to shaft and bearing flexibilities, which are unavoidable in real transmissions. On the other hand, forces at bearing level were obtained considering a variable number of supporting rolling elements, depending on the applied load and clearances. Both formulations have been developed and applied to the simulation of the vibration of a sample transmission, focusing the attention on the transmitted load, friction meshing forces and bearing preloads.

A connectionist-geostatistical approach for classification of deformation types in ice surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goetz-Weiss, L. R.; Herzfeld, U. C.; Hale, R. G.; Hunke, E. C.; Bobeck, J.

2014-12-01

Deformation is a class of highly non-linear geophysical processes from which one can infer other geophysical variables in a dynamical system. For example, in an ice-dynamic model, deformation is related to velocity, basal sliding, surface elevation changes, and the stress field at the surface as well as internal to a glacier. While many of these variables cannot be observed, deformation state can be an observable variable, because deformation in glaciers (once a viscosity threshold is exceeded) manifests itself in crevasses.Given the amount of information that can be inferred from observing surface deformation, an automated method for classifying surface imagery becomes increasingly desirable. In this paper a Neural Network is used to recognize classes of crevasse types over the Bering Bagley Glacier System (BBGS) during a surge (2011-2013-?). A surge is a spatially and temporally highly variable and rapid acceleration of the glacier. Therefore, many different crevasse types occur in a short time frame and in close proximity, and these crevasse fields hold information on the geophysical processes of the surge.The connectionist-geostatistical approach uses directional experimental (discrete) variograms to parameterize images into a form that the Neural Network can recognize. Recognizing that each surge wave results in different crevasse types and that environmental conditions affect the appearance in imagery, we have developed a semi-automated pre-training software to adapt the Neural Net to chaining conditions.The method is applied to airborne and satellite imagery to classify surge crevasses from the BBGS surge. This method works well for classifying spatially repetitive images such as the crevasses over Bering Glacier. We expand the network for less repetitive images in order to analyze imagery collected over the Arctic sea ice, to assess the percentage of deformed ice for model calibration.

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.; ...

2017-01-23

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

Does subtype matter? Assessing the effects of maltreatment on functioning in preadolescent youth in out-of-home care

PubMed Central

Petrenko, Christie L. M.; Friend, Angela; Garrido, Edward F.; Taussig, Heather N.; Culhane, Sara E.

2012-01-01

Objectives Attempts to understand the effects of maltreatment subtypes on childhood functioning are complicated by the fact that children often experience multiple subtypes. This study assessed the effects of maltreatment subtypes on the cognitive, academic, and mental health functioning of preadolescent youth in out-of-home care using both “variable-centered” and “person-centered” statistical analytic approaches to modeling multiple subtypes of maltreatment. Methods Participants included 334 preadolescent youth (ages 9 to 11) placed in out-of-home care due to maltreatment. The occurrence and severity of maltreatment subtypes (physical abuse, sexual abuse, physical neglect, and supervisory neglect) were coded from child welfare records. The relationships between maltreatment subtypes and children’s cognitive, academic, and mental health functioning were evaluated with the following approaches: “Variable-centered” analytic methods: Regression approach: Multiple regression was used to estimate the effects of each maltreatment subtype (separate analyses for occurrence and severity), controlling for the other subtypes. Hierarchical approach: Contrast coding was used in regression analyses to estimate the effects of discrete maltreatment categories that were assigned based on a subtype occurrence hierarchy (sexual abuse > physical abuse > physical neglect > supervisory neglect). “Person-centered” analytic method: Latent class analysis was used to group children with similar maltreatment severity profiles into discrete classes. The classes were then compared to determine if they differed in terms of their ability to predict functioning. Results The approaches identified similar relationships between maltreatment subtypes and children’s functioning. The most consistent findings indicated that maltreated children who experienced physical or sexual abuse were at highest risk for caregiver-reported externalizing behavior problems, and those who experienced physical abuse and/or physical neglect were more likely to have higher levels of caregiver-reported internalizing problems. Children experiencing predominantly low severity supervisory neglect had relatively better functioning than other maltreated youth. Conclusions Many of the maltreatment subtype differences identified within the maltreated sample in the current study are consistent with those from previous research comparing maltreated youth to non-maltreated comparison groups. Results do not support combining supervisory and physical neglect. The “variable-centered” and “person-centered” analytic approaches produced complementary results. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed. PMID:22947490

Relationships Between Internal and External Training Load in Team-Sport Athletes: Evidence for an Individualized Approach.

PubMed

Bartlett, Jonathan D; O'Connor, Fergus; Pitchford, Nathan; Torres-Ronda, Lorena; Robertson, Samuel J

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to quantify and predict relationships between rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and GPS training-load (TL) variables in professional Australian football (AF) players using group and individualized modeling approaches. TL data (GPS and RPE) for 41 professional AF players were obtained over a period of 27 wk. A total of 2711 training observations were analyzed with a total of 66 ± 13 sessions/player (range 39-89). Separate generalized estimating equations (GEEs) and artificial-neural-network analyses (ANNs) were conducted to determine the ability to predict RPE from TL variables (ie, session distance, high-speed running [HSR], HSR %, m/min) on a group and individual basis. Prediction error for the individualized ANN (root-mean-square error [RMSE] 1.24 ± 0.41) was lower than the group ANN (RMSE 1.42 ± 0.44), individualized GEE (RMSE 1.58 ± 0.41), and group GEE (RMSE 1.85 ± 0.49). Both the GEE and ANN models determined session distance as the most important predictor of RPE. Furthermore, importance plots generated from the ANN revealed session distance as most predictive of RPE in 36 of the 41 players, whereas HSR was predictive of RPE in just 3 players and m/min was predictive of RPE in just 2 players. This study demonstrates that machine learning approaches may outperform more traditional methodologies with respect to predicting athlete responses to TL. These approaches enable further individualization of load monitoring, leading to more accurate training prescription and evaluation.

Hybrid finite difference/finite element immersed boundary method.

PubMed

E Griffith, Boyce; Luo, Xiaoyu

2017-12-01

The immersed boundary method is an approach to fluid-structure interaction that uses a Lagrangian description of the structural deformations, stresses, and forces along with an Eulerian description of the momentum, viscosity, and incompressibility of the fluid-structure system. The original immersed boundary methods described immersed elastic structures using systems of flexible fibers, and even now, most immersed boundary methods still require Lagrangian meshes that are finer than the Eulerian grid. This work introduces a coupling scheme for the immersed boundary method to link the Lagrangian and Eulerian variables that facilitates independent spatial discretizations for the structure and background grid. This approach uses a finite element discretization of the structure while retaining a finite difference scheme for the Eulerian variables. We apply this method to benchmark problems involving elastic, rigid, and actively contracting structures, including an idealized model of the left ventricle of the heart. Our tests include cases in which, for a fixed Eulerian grid spacing, coarser Lagrangian structural meshes yield discretization errors that are as much as several orders of magnitude smaller than errors obtained using finer structural meshes. The Lagrangian-Eulerian coupling approach developed in this work enables the effective use of these coarse structural meshes with the immersed boundary method. This work also contrasts two different weak forms of the equations, one of which is demonstrated to be more effective for the coarse structural discretizations facilitated by our coupling approach. © 2017 The Authors International  Journal  for  Numerical  Methods  in  Biomedical  Engineering Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The physics of bacterial decision making.

PubMed

Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Lu, Mingyang; Schultz, Daniel; Onuchic, Jose' N

2014-01-01

The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic) on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: (1) A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters-population density and internal/external stress. (2) An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. (3) Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. (4) A communication module that exchanges information about the cells' internal stress levels. (5) An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions.

The physics of bacterial decision making

PubMed Central

Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Lu, Mingyang; Schultz, Daniel; Onuchic, Jose' N.

2014-01-01

The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic) on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: (1) A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters—population density and internal/external stress. (2) An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. (3) Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. (4) A communication module that exchanges information about the cells' internal stress levels. (5) An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions. PMID:25401094

The Prediction of Labor Force Status: Implications from International Adult Skill Assessments. Research Report. ETS RR-16-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Tongyun; von Davier, Matthias; Hancock, Gregory R.

2016-01-01

This report investigates the prediction of labor force status using observed variables, such as gender, age, and immigrant status, and more importantly, measured skill variables, including literacy proficiency and a categorical rating of educational attainment based on the 1994 International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS), the 2003 Adult Literacy…

A Study of Resiliency Characteristics in the Adjustment of International Graduate Students at American Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Jing

2009-01-01

This research introduced the concept of resilience into the study of adjustment of international graduate students at U.S. universities. The purpose of this study was to explore relationships among resilience characteristics, background variables, and adjustment problem areas, and to gauge the effects of resilience and background variables on…

Discovering new variable stars at Key Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chubb, Katy; Hood, Rosie; Wilson, Thomas; Holdship, Jonathan; Hutton, Sarah

2017-05-01

Details of the London pilot of the ‘Discovery Project’ are presented, where university-based astronomers were given the chance to pass on some real and applied knowledge of astronomy to a group of selected secondary school pupils. It was aimed at students in Key Stage 3 of their education, allowing them to be involved in real astronomical research at an early stage of their education, the chance to become the official discoverer of a new variable star, and to be listed in the International Variable Star Index database (The International Variable Star Index, Version 1.1, American Association of Variable Star Observers (AAVSO), 2016, http://aavso.org/vsx), all while learning and practising research-level skills. Future plans are discussed.

Melt transport - a personal cashing-up

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, J.

2005-12-01

The flow of fluids through rocks transports heat and material and changes bulk composition. The large-scale chemical differentiation of the Earth is related to flow of partial melts. From the perspective of current understanding of tectonic processes, prominent examples of such transport processes are the formation of oceanic crust from ascending basic melts at mid-ocean ridges, melt segregation involved in the solidification of the Earth's core, and dissolution-precipitation creep in subduction channels. Transport and deformation cannot be separated for partially molten aggregates. Permeability is only defined as an instantaneous parameter in the sense that Darcy's law is assumed to be valid; it is not an explicit parameter in the fundamental mechanical conservation laws but can be derived from them in certain circumstances as a result of averaging schemes. The governing, explicit physical properties in the mechanical equations are the shear and bulk viscosities of the solid framework and the fluid viscosity and compressibility. Constraints on the magnitude of these properties are available today from experiments at specific loading configurations, i.e., more or less well constrained initial and boundary conditions. The melt pressure remains the least controlled parameter. While the fluid viscosity is often much lower than the solid's the two-phase aggregate may exhibit considerable strength owing to the difficulty of moving the fluid through the branched pore network. The extremes in behavior depend on the time scale of loading, as known from daily live experiences (spounge, Danish coffee-pot, human tissue between neighboring bones). Several theoretical approaches attempted to formulate mechanical constitutive equations for two-phase aggregates. An important issue is the handling of internal variables in these equations. At experimental conditions, grain size, melt pocket orientation and crystallographic orientation -prime candidates for internal variables- change considerably and potentially contribute significantly to the total dissipation of the external work. Theoretically founded evolution equations for these internal variables are lacking. In experiments, both the kinetics of grain growth but also the resultant shape of grains is affected by the presence of melt. The latter is linked to the alignment of melt pockets with the maximum principle stress. Thus, the melt redistribution causes direct anisotropy but also indirect through a shape-preferred orientation of solid grains. Notably, the foliation is parallel to the maximum principle stress in contrast to deformation controlled by crystal defects alone. Extremum principles developed for dissipation potentials in the framework of irreversible thermodynamics may allow us to postulate evolution equations. Owing to their significant effect on aggregate viscosities understanding the evolution of internal variables is mandatory for substantial large-scale modeling.

KALREF—A Kalman filter and time series approach to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame realization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaoping; Abbondanza, Claudio; Altamimi, Zuheir; Chin, T. Mike; Collilieux, Xavier; Gross, Richard S.; Heflin, Michael B.; Jiang, Yan; Parker, Jay W.

2015-05-01

The current International Terrestrial Reference Frame is based on a piecewise linear site motion model and realized by reference epoch coordinates and velocities for a global set of stations. Although linear motions due to tectonic plates and glacial isostatic adjustment dominate geodetic signals, at today's millimeter precisions, nonlinear motions due to earthquakes, volcanic activities, ice mass losses, sea level rise, hydrological changes, and other processes become significant. Monitoring these (sometimes rapid) changes desires consistent and precise realization of the terrestrial reference frame (TRF) quasi-instantaneously. Here, we use a Kalman filter and smoother approach to combine time series from four space geodetic techniques to realize an experimental TRF through weekly time series of geocentric coordinates. In addition to secular, periodic, and stochastic components for station coordinates, the Kalman filter state variables also include daily Earth orientation parameters and transformation parameters from input data frames to the combined TRF. Local tie measurements among colocated stations are used at their known or nominal epochs of observation, with comotion constraints applied to almost all colocated stations. The filter/smoother approach unifies different geodetic time series in a single geocentric frame. Fragmented and multitechnique tracking records at colocation sites are bridged together to form longer and coherent motion time series. While the time series approach to TRF reflects the reality of a changing Earth more closely than the linear approximation model, the filter/smoother is computationally powerful and flexible to facilitate incorporation of other data types and more advanced characterization of stochastic behavior of geodetic time series.

Static internal performance of single-expansion-ramp nozzles with various combinations of internal geometric parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Re, R. J.; Leavitt, L. D.

1984-01-01

The effects of five geometric design parameters on the internal performance of single-expansion-ramp nozzles were investigated at nozzle pressure ratios up to 10 in the static-test facility of the Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel. The geometric variables on the expansion-ramp surface of the upper flap consisted of ramp chordal angle, ramp length, and initial ramp angle. On the lower flap, the geometric variables consisted of flap angle and flap length. Both internal performance and static-pressure distributions on the centerlines of the upper and lower flaps were obtained for all 43 nozzle configurations tested.

Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic models.

PubMed

Hack, C Eric

2006-04-17

Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) and toxicodynamic (TD) models of bromate in animals and humans would improve our ability to accurately estimate the toxic doses in humans based on available animal studies. These mathematical models are often highly parameterized and must be calibrated in order for the model predictions of internal dose to adequately fit the experimentally measured doses. Highly parameterized models are difficult to calibrate and it is difficult to obtain accurate estimates of uncertainty or variability in model parameters with commonly used frequentist calibration methods, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or least squared error approaches. The Bayesian approach called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis can be used to successfully calibrate these complex models. Prior knowledge about the biological system and associated model parameters is easily incorporated in this approach in the form of prior parameter distributions, and the distributions are refined or updated using experimental data to generate posterior distributions of parameter estimates. The goal of this paper is to give the non-mathematician a brief description of the Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis, how this technique is used in risk assessment, and the issues associated with this approach.

Factor Models for Ordinal Variables With Covariate Effects on the Manifest and Latent Variables: A Comparison of LISREL and IRT Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moustaki, Irini; Joreskog, Karl G.; Mavridis, Dimitris

2004-01-01

We consider a general type of model for analyzing ordinal variables with covariate effects and 2 approaches for analyzing data for such models, the item response theory (IRT) approach and the PRELIS-LISREL (PLA) approach. We compare these 2 approaches on the basis of 2 examples, 1 involving only covariate effects directly on the ordinal variables…

On heterogeneity of treatment effects and clinical freedom.

PubMed

Sacristán, J A; Avendaño-Solá, C

2015-01-01

Three decades ago, John R Hampton announced the death of clinical freedom. Since then, evidence-based medicine has been the predominant paradigm in clinical research. By applying a population-based approach, the randomised controlled trial has become the cornerstone for demonstrating the overall effect of a treatment and for developing guidelines. The new patient-centred medicine movement is rediscovering the important implications of heterogeneity of treatment effects for clinical practice and that a better understanding of such variability can contribute to improve health outcomes for individual patients through practicing a science-based clinical freedom. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal of Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Journal of Computational Electronics: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Computational Electronics (8th) (IWCE-8), Beckman Institute, University of Illinois, 15-18 October 2001. Volume 1, Issue 1-2

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-01-01

the fully coupled electrical and optical sys- of carrier is assumed and the minority carriers are not tems in VCSELs (Oyafuso et al. 2000). separated...evolution times the cosine function in Mn 𔃺 5 ++.(1) weakly depends on the phase space variables. With the increase of the time, the cosine term...can also be applied in phase - coherent devices. Our approach is useful to To obtain S(0) we just have to integrate A Q2 over the study noise in a wide

A feminist perspective on risk factor research and on the prevention of eating disorders.

PubMed

Piran, Niva

2010-01-01

This review utilizes a feminist lens to discuss risk factor research and prevention work in the field of eating disorders. The article suggests that feminist informed risk factor research needs to consider gender as it intersects with other social variables as a relevant higher level risk factor and examine its relationship to individual level risk factors such as the internalization of thinness or negative body image. The article also highlights the key elements of participatory approaches and systemic changes to feminist informed prevention work. Prevention work conducted to date suggests the relevance of these elements to achieving behavioral changes in prevention work.

A systematic multiscale modeling and experimental approach to protect grain boundaries in magnesium alloys from corrosion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horstemeyer, Mark R.; Chaudhuri, Santanu

2015-09-30

A multiscale modeling Internal State Variable (ISV) constitutive model was developed that captures the fundamental structure-property relationships. The macroscale ISV model used lower length scale simulations (Butler-Volmer and Electronics Structures results) in order to inform the ISVs at the macroscale. The chemomechanical ISV model was calibrated and validated from experiments with magnesium (Mg) alloys that were investigated under corrosive environments coupled with experimental electrochemical studies. Because the ISV chemomechanical model is physically based, it can be used for other material systems to predict corrosion behavior. As such, others can use the chemomechanical model for analyzing corrosion effects on their designs.

Analysis of World Economic Variables Using Multidimensional Scaling

PubMed Central

Machado, J.A. Tenreiro; Mata, Maria Eugénia

2015-01-01

Waves of globalization reflect the historical technical progress and modern economic growth. The dynamics of this process are here approached using the multidimensional scaling (MDS) methodology to analyze the evolution of GDP per capita, international trade openness, life expectancy, and education tertiary enrollment in 14 countries. MDS provides the appropriate theoretical concepts and the exact mathematical tools to describe the joint evolution of these indicators of economic growth, globalization, welfare and human development of the world economy from 1977 up to 2012. The polarization dance of countries enlightens the convergence paths, potential warfare and present-day rivalries in the global geopolitical scene. PMID:25811177

Null boundary controllability of a one-dimensional heat equation with an internal point mass and variable coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Amara, Jamel; Bouzidi, Hedi

2018-01-01

In this paper, we consider a linear hybrid system which is composed by two non-homogeneous rods connected by a point mass with Dirichlet boundary conditions on the left end and a boundary control acts on the right end. We prove that this system is null controllable with Dirichlet or Neumann boundary controls. Our approach is mainly based on a detailed spectral analysis together with the moment method. In particular, we show that the associated spectral gap in both cases (Dirichlet or Neumann boundary controls) is positive without further conditions on the coefficients other than the regularities.

The Sun as a variable star: Solar and stellar irradiance variations; Colloquium of the International Astronomical Union, 143rd, Boulder, CO, Jun. 20-25, 1993

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M. (Editor); Froehlich, Claus (Editor); Hudson, Hugh S. (Editor); Tobiska, W. Kent (Editor)

1994-01-01

Variations in solar and stellar irradiances have long been of interest. An International Astronomical Union (IAU) colloquium reviewed such relevant subjects as observations, theoretical interpretations, and empirical and physical models, with a special emphasis on climatic impact of solar irradiance variability. Specific topics discussed included: (1) General Reviews on Observations of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (2) Observational Programs for Solar and Stellar Irradiance Variability; (3) Variability of Solar and Stellar Irradiance Related to the Network, Active Regions (Sunspots and Plages), and Large-Scale Magnetic Structures; (4) Empirical Models of Solar Total and Spectral Irradiance Variability; (5) Solar and Stellar Oscillations, Irradiance Variations and their Interpretations; and (6) The Response of the Earth's Atmosphere to Solar Irradiance Variations and Sun-Climate Connections.

Affective Computing and the Impact of Gender and Age

PubMed Central

Rukavina, Stefanie; Gruss, Sascha; Hoffmann, Holger; Tan, Jun-Wen; Walter, Steffen; Traue, Harald C.

2016-01-01

Affective computing aims at the detection of users’ mental states, in particular, emotions and dispositions during human-computer interactions. Detection can be achieved by measuring multimodal signals, namely, speech, facial expressions and/or psychobiology. Over the past years, one major approach was to identify the best features for each signal using different classification methods. Although this is of high priority, other subject-specific variables should not be neglected. In our study, we analyzed the effect of gender, age, personality and gender roles on the extracted psychobiological features (derived from skin conductance level, facial electromyography and heart rate variability) as well as the influence on the classification results. In an experimental human-computer interaction, five different affective states with picture material from the International Affective Picture System and ULM pictures were induced. A total of 127 subjects participated in the study. Among all potentially influencing variables (gender has been reported to be influential), age was the only variable that correlated significantly with psychobiological responses. In summary, the conducted classification processes resulted in 20% classification accuracy differences according to age and gender, especially when comparing the neutral condition with four other affective states. We suggest taking age and gender specifically into account for future studies in affective computing, as these may lead to an improvement of emotion recognition accuracy. PMID:26939129

An advanced stochastic weather generator for simulating 2-D high-resolution climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2017-07-01

A new stochastic weather generator, Advanced WEather GENerator for a two-dimensional grid (AWE-GEN-2d) is presented. The model combines physical and stochastic approaches to simulate key meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution: 2 km × 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m × 100 m and 1 h for near-surface air temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure, and near-surface wind. The model requires spatially distributed data for the calibration process, which can nowadays be obtained by remote sensing devices (weather radar and satellites), reanalysis data sets and ground stations. AWE-GEN-2d is parsimonious in terms of computational demand and therefore is particularly suitable for studies where exploring internal climatic variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales is fundamental. Applications of the model include models of environmental systems, such as hydrological and geomorphological models, where high-resolution spatial and temporal meteorological forcing is crucial. The weather generator was calibrated and validated for the Engelberg region, an area with complex topography in the Swiss Alps. Model test shows that the climate variables are generated by AWE-GEN-2d with a level of accuracy that is sufficient for many practical applications.

Role of slack variables in quasi-Newton methods for constrained optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tapia, R.A.

In constrained optimization the technique of converting an inequality constraint into an equality constraint by the addition of a squared slack variable is well known but rarely used. In choosing an active constraint philosophy over the slack variable approach, researchers quickly justify their choice with the standard criticisms: the slack variable approach increases the dimension of the problem, is numerically unstable, and gives rise to singular systems. It is shown that these criticisms of the slack variable approach need not apply and the two seemingly distinct approaches are actually very closely related. In fact, the squared slack variable formulation canmore » be used to develop a superior and more comprehensive active constraint philosophy.« less

Evaluation of variable selection methods for random forests and omics data sets.

PubMed

Degenhardt, Frauke; Seifert, Stephan; Szymczak, Silke

2017-10-16

Machine learning methods and in particular random forests are promising approaches for prediction based on high dimensional omics data sets. They provide variable importance measures to rank predictors according to their predictive power. If building a prediction model is the main goal of a study, often a minimal set of variables with good prediction performance is selected. However, if the objective is the identification of involved variables to find active networks and pathways, approaches that aim to select all relevant variables should be preferred. We evaluated several variable selection procedures based on simulated data as well as publicly available experimental methylation and gene expression data. Our comparison included the Boruta algorithm, the Vita method, recurrent relative variable importance, a permutation approach and its parametric variant (Altmann) as well as recursive feature elimination (RFE). In our simulation studies, Boruta was the most powerful approach, followed closely by the Vita method. Both approaches demonstrated similar stability in variable selection, while Vita was the most robust approach under a pure null model without any predictor variables related to the outcome. In the analysis of the different experimental data sets, Vita demonstrated slightly better stability in variable selection and was less computationally intensive than Boruta.In conclusion, we recommend the Boruta and Vita approaches for the analysis of high-dimensional data sets. Vita is considerably faster than Boruta and thus more suitable for large data sets, but only Boruta can also be applied in low-dimensional settings. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Earth Structure, Ice Mass Changes, and the Local Dynamic Geoid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.; Simons, F. J.

2014-12-01

Spherical Slepian localization functions are a useful method for studying regional mass changes observed by satellite gravimetry. By projecting data onto a sparse basis set, the local field can be estimated more easily than with the full spherical harmonic basis. We have used this method previously to estimate the ice mass change in Greenland from GRACE data, and it can also be applied to other planetary problems such as global magnetic fields. Earth's static geoid, in contrast to the time-variable field, is in large part related to the internal density and rheological structure of the Earth. Past studies have used dynamic geoid kernels to relate this density structure and the internal deformation it induces to the surface geopotential at large scales. These now classical studies of the eighties and nineties were able to estimate the mantle's radial rheological profile, placing constraints on the ratio between upper and lower mantle viscosity. By combining these two methods, spherical Slepian localization and dynamic geoid kernels, we have created local dynamic geoid kernels which are sensitive only to density variations within an area of interest. With these kernels we can estimate the approximate local radial rheological structure that best explains the locally observed geoid on a regional basis. First-order differences of the regional mantle viscosity structure are accessible to this technique. In this contribution we present our latest, as yet unpublished results on the geographical and temporal pattern of ice mass changes in Antarctica over the past decade, and we introduce a new approach to extract regional information about the internal structure of the Earth from the static global gravity field. Both sets of results are linked in terms of the relevant physics, but also in being developed from the marriage of Slepian functions and geoid kernels. We make predictions on the utility of our approach to derive fully three-dimensional rheological Earth models, to be used for corrections for glacio-isostatic adjustment, as necessary for the interpretation of time-variable gravity observations in terms of ice sheet mass-balance studies.

Uncovering cyanobacteria ecological networks from long-term monitoring data using Granger causality analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Kaplan, D. A.; Phlips, E. J.

2016-12-01

In many aquatic systems, cyanobacteria form harmful blooms capable of producing toxins, prompting hypoxia, and/or introducing internal nitrogen loads via N2-fixation, among other impacts. Traditionally, system-specific cyanobacteria drivers are determined by performing controlled experiments and bioassays, but these approaches may neglect the influences of confounding factors and over assign importance to only those variables considered within experimental designs. For example, a bioassay may conclude that the cyanobacteria in a particular system are limited by phosphorus, but will not explicitly take into account the role of flow as a control on phosphorus delivery. This study aims to address this analytical gap by identifying environmental controls on cyanobacteria while removing the effects of potentially confounding variables. In the present work, we evaluate a unique long-term (17 year) dataset composed of monthly observations of phytoplankton and zooplankton species abundances, water quality constituents, and hydrologic variables from Lake George, a flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL) impacted by cyanobacterial blooms. Using conditional Granger causality analysis, a time series approach that infers causality while removing the effects of confounding variables, data were evaluated to identify biological and physicochemical drivers of cyanobacteria. The analysis was performed for three response variable sets: total cyanobacteria, N2-fixers and non-fixers, and cyanobacteria genera. Results depicted increasing levels of ecological complexity as subdivisions of cyanobacteria became more detailed; whereas causal networks produced from analyses of cyanobacteria genera provided novel insights relevant for management (i.e. nutrients, flow), the total cyanobacteria network only included water temperature as a significant driver. Additionally, the more detailed cyanobacteria subdivisions uncovered that N2-fixation was only evident with the earliest season bloomer, thus indicating that early season bloomers may be facilitating later-season growth. These findings highlight the importance of detailed monitoring efforts, and indicate that greater emphasis needs to be placed on the role of early bloomers in phytoplankton dynamics, as it relates to management efforts.

Self-Calibrating Wave-Encoded Variable-Density Single-Shot Fast Spin Echo Imaging.

PubMed

Chen, Feiyu; Taviani, Valentina; Tamir, Jonathan I; Cheng, Joseph Y; Zhang, Tao; Song, Qiong; Hargreaves, Brian A; Pauly, John M; Vasanawala, Shreyas S

2018-04-01

It is highly desirable in clinical abdominal MR scans to accelerate single-shot fast spin echo (SSFSE) imaging and reduce blurring due to T 2 decay and partial-Fourier acquisition. To develop and investigate the clinical feasibility of wave-encoded variable-density SSFSE imaging for improved image quality and scan time reduction. Prospective controlled clinical trial. With Institutional Review Board approval and informed consent, the proposed method was assessed on 20 consecutive adult patients (10 male, 10 female, range, 24-84 years). A wave-encoded variable-density SSFSE sequence was developed for clinical 3.0T abdominal scans to enable high acceleration (3.5×) with full-Fourier acquisitions by: 1) introducing wave encoding with self-refocusing gradient waveforms to improve acquisition efficiency; 2) developing self-calibrated estimation of wave-encoding point-spread function and coil sensitivity to improve motion robustness; and 3) incorporating a parallel imaging and compressed sensing reconstruction to reconstruct highly accelerated datasets. Image quality was compared pairwise with standard Cartesian acquisition independently and blindly by two radiologists on a scale from -2 to 2 for noise, contrast, confidence, sharpness, and artifacts. The average ratio of scan time between these two approaches was also compared. A Wilcoxon signed-rank tests with a P value under 0.05 considered statistically significant. Wave-encoded variable-density SSFSE significantly reduced the perceived noise level and improved the sharpness of the abdominal wall and the kidneys compared with standard acquisition (mean scores 0.8, 1.2, and 0.8, respectively, P < 0.003). No significant difference was observed in relation to other features (P = 0.11). An average of 21% decrease in scan time was achieved using the proposed method. Wave-encoded variable-density sampling SSFSE achieves improved image quality with clinically relevant echo time and reduced scan time, thus providing a fast and robust approach for clinical SSFSE imaging. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 6 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018;47:954-966. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Acoustic mode coupling induced by shallow water nonlinear internal waves: sensitivity to environmental conditions and space-time scales of internal waves.

PubMed

Colosi, John A

2008-09-01

While many results have been intuited from numerical simulation studies, the precise connections between shallow-water acoustic variability and the space-time scales of nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) as well as the background environmental conditions have not been clearly established analytically. Two-dimensional coupled mode propagation through NLIWs is examined using a perturbation series solution in which each order n is associated with nth-order multiple scattering. Importantly, the perturbation solution gives resonance conditions that pick out specific NLIW scales that cause coupling, and seabed attenuation is demonstrated to broaden these resonances, fundamentally changing the coupling behavior at low frequency. Sound-speed inhomogeneities caused by internal solitary waves (ISWs) are primarily considered and the dependence of mode coupling on ISW amplitude, range width, depth structure, location relative to the source, and packet characteristics are delineated as a function of acoustic frequency. In addition, it is seen that significant energy transfer to modes with initially low or zero energy involves at least a second order scattering process. Under moderate scattering conditions, comparisons of first order, single scattering theoretical predictions to direct numerical simulation demonstrate the accuracy of the approach for acoustic frequencies upto 400 Hz and for single as well as multiple ISW wave packets.

An Analysis of Freight Forwarder Operations in an International Distribution Channel.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-01-01

44 3. International Marketing Mix ....................... 45 4. Security Assistance Distribution Channel .......... 69 5...an item is ultimately derived from the interaction of variables in the marketing mix . Of those variables, the distribution functions seem to allow the...Component of the Marketing Mix ,"Proceedings, NCPDM Fall Meeting, National council of Physical Distribution Management, San Francisco, CA., 1982. 7

An Analysis of Basic Construction Variables of Racing Wheelchairs Used in the 1984 International Games for the Disabled.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

York, Sherril L.; Kimura, Iris F.

1987-01-01

A photographic analysis of racing wheelchairs used by cerebral palsy class four athletes and amputee athletes at the 1984 International Games for the Disabled was undertaken in order to analyze seven wheelchair construction variables in relation to performance outcome, distance raced, and type of disability of the user. (Author/MT)

Nonlinear waves in solids with slow dynamics: an internal-variable model.

PubMed

Berjamin, H; Favrie, N; Lombard, B; Chiavassa, G

2017-05-01

In heterogeneous solids such as rocks and concrete, the speed of sound diminishes with the strain amplitude of a dynamic loading (softening). This decrease, known as 'slow dynamics', occurs at time scales larger than the period of the forcing. Also, hysteresis is observed in the steady-state response. The phenomenological model by Vakhnenko et al. (2004 Phys. Rev. E 70, 015602. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.015602)) is based on a variable that describes the softening of the material. However, this model is one dimensional and it is not thermodynamically admissible. In the present article, a three-dimensional model is derived in the framework of the finite-strain theory. An internal variable that describes the softening of the material is introduced, as well as an expression of the specific internal energy. A mechanical constitutive law is deduced from the Clausius-Duhem inequality. Moreover, a family of evolution equations for the internal variable is proposed. Here, an evolution equation with one relaxation time is chosen. By construction, this new model of the continuum is thermodynamically admissible and dissipative (inelastic). In the case of small uniaxial deformations, it is shown analytically that the model reproduces qualitatively the main features of real experiments.

Internal Waves in the East Australian Current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alford, Matthew H.; Sloyan, Bernadette M.; Simmons, Harper L.

2017-12-01

Internal waves, which drive most ocean turbulence and add "noise" to lower-frequency records, interact with low-frequency current systems and topography in yet poorly known ways. Taking advantage of a heavily instrumented, 14 month mooring array, internal waves in the East Australian Current (EAC) are examined for the first time. Internal wave horizontal kinetic energy (HKE) is within a factor of 2 of the Garrett-Munk (1976) spectrum. Continuum internal waves, near-inertial waves, and internal tides together constitute a significant percentage of the total velocity variance. Mode-1 internal tide energy fluxes are southward and much smaller than energy times group velocity, consistent with reflection at the continental slope of incident waves generated from near New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands. Internal tide HKE is highly phase variable, consistent with refraction by the variable EAC. Mode-1 near-inertial wave energy fluxes are of comparable magnitude and are equatorward and episodic, consistent with generation by storms farther poleward. These processes are considered together in the complex environment of the EAC.

International urinary tract imaging basic spinal cord injury data set.

PubMed

Biering-Sørensen, F; Craggs, M; Kennelly, M; Schick, E; Wyndaele, J-J

2009-05-01

To create an International Urinary Tract Imaging Basic Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Data Set within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets. An international working group. The draft of the Data Set was developed by a working group comprising members appointed by the Neurourology Committee of the International Continence Society, the European Association of Urology, the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA), the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and a representative of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets. The final version of the Data Set was developed after review and comments by members of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets, the ISCoS Scientific Committee, ASIA Board, relevant and interested international organizations and societies (around 40), individual persons with specific expertise and the ISCoS Council. Endorsement of the Data Sets by relevant organizations and societies will be obtained. To make the Data Set uniform, each variable and each response category within each variable have been specifically defined in a way that is designed to promote the collection and reporting of comparable minimal data. The variables included in the International Urinary Tract Imaging Basic SCI Data Set are the results obtained using the following investigations: intravenous pyelography or computer tomography urogram or ultrasound, X-ray, renography, clearance, cystogram, voiding cystogram or micturition cystourogram or videourodynamics. The complete instructions for data collection and the data sheet itself are freely available on the websites of both ISCoS (http://www.iscos.org.uk) and ASIA (http://www.asia-spinalinjury.org).

Conditional Mediation of Absorptive Capacity and Environment in International Entrepreneurial Orientation of Family Businesses

PubMed Central

Hernández-Perlines, Felipe; Xu, Wenkai

2018-01-01

This study analyzes the effect of conditional mediation of environment-absorptive capacity in international entrepreneurial orientation of family businesses. Results involve data from 218 Spanish family businesses, analyzed with SmartPLS 3.2.7 software. This paper presents a relevant contribution both to the academic field and the performance of family firms, helping to understand the process of transforming international entrepreneurial orientation into a better international performance through absorptive capacity while family businesses invest their efforts in aligning international entrepreneurial orientation and absorptive capacity with international results, bearing in mind the positive moderator effect of environment. The most relevant contribution of this work is to integrate in the same model the mediating effect of the absorption capacity and the moderating effect of the environment: the effect of the international entrepreneurial orientation on the international performance of family businesses improves with the mediation of the absorptive capacity (the variability of international performance goes from 32.5 to 40.6%) and the moderation of the environment (to variability of international performance goes from 40.6 to 45.3%). PMID:29472881

Conditional Mediation of Absorptive Capacity and Environment in International Entrepreneurial Orientation of Family Businesses.

PubMed

Hernández-Perlines, Felipe; Xu, Wenkai

2018-01-01

This study analyzes the effect of conditional mediation of environment-absorptive capacity in international entrepreneurial orientation of family businesses. Results involve data from 218 Spanish family businesses, analyzed with SmartPLS 3.2.7 software. This paper presents a relevant contribution both to the academic field and the performance of family firms, helping to understand the process of transforming international entrepreneurial orientation into a better international performance through absorptive capacity while family businesses invest their efforts in aligning international entrepreneurial orientation and absorptive capacity with international results, bearing in mind the positive moderator effect of environment. The most relevant contribution of this work is to integrate in the same model the mediating effect of the absorption capacity and the moderating effect of the environment: the effect of the international entrepreneurial orientation on the international performance of family businesses improves with the mediation of the absorptive capacity (the variability of international performance goes from 32.5 to 40.6%) and the moderation of the environment (to variability of international performance goes from 40.6 to 45.3%).

Are the users of social networking sites homogeneous? A cross-cultural study.

PubMed

Alarcón-Del-Amo, María-Del-Carmen; Gómez-Borja, Miguel-Ángel; Lorenzo-Romero, Carlota

2015-01-01

The growing use of Social Networking Sites (SNS) around the world has made it necessary to understand individuals' behaviors within these sites according to different cultures. Based on a comparative study between two different European countries (The Netherlands versus Spain), a comparison of typologies of networked Internet users has been obtained through a latent segmentation approach. These typologies are based on the frequency with which users perform different activities, their socio-demographic variables, and experience in social networking and interaction patterns. The findings show new insights regarding international segmentation in order to analyse SNS user behaviors in both countries. These results are relevant for marketing strategists eager to use the communication potential of networked individuals and for marketers willing to explore the potential of online networking as a low cost and a highly efficient alternative to traditional networking approaches. For most businesses, expert users could be valuable opinion leaders and potential brand influencers.

The design and synthesis of new synthetic low-molecular-weight heparins.

PubMed

Chandarajoti, K; Liu, J; Pawlinski, R

2016-06-01

Low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) has remained the most favorable form of heparin in clinics since the 1990s owing to its predictable pharmacokinetic properties. However, LMWH is mainly eliminated through the kidney, which limits its use in renal-impaired patients. In addition, the anticoagulant activity of LMWH is only partially neutralized by protamine. LMWH is obtained from a full-length, highly sulfated polysaccharide harvested from porcine mucosal tissue. The depolymerization involved in LMWH production generates a broad distribution of LMWH fragments (6-22 sugar residues). This, combined with the various methods used to produce commercial LMWHs, results in variable pharmacological and pharmacokinetic properties. An alternative chemoenzymatic approach offers a method for the synthesis of LMWH that has the potential to overcome the limitations of current LMWHs. This review summarizes the application of a chemoenzymatic approach to generate LMWH and the rationale for development of a synthetic LMWH. © 2016 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Are the users of social networking sites homogeneous? A cross-cultural study

PubMed Central

Alarcón-del-Amo, María-del-Carmen; Gómez-Borja, Miguel-Ángel; Lorenzo-Romero, Carlota

2015-01-01

The growing use of Social Networking Sites (SNS) around the world has made it necessary to understand individuals' behaviors within these sites according to different cultures. Based on a comparative study between two different European countries (The Netherlands versus Spain), a comparison of typologies of networked Internet users has been obtained through a latent segmentation approach. These typologies are based on the frequency with which users perform different activities, their socio-demographic variables, and experience in social networking and interaction patterns. The findings show new insights regarding international segmentation in order to analyse SNS user behaviors in both countries. These results are relevant for marketing strategists eager to use the communication potential of networked individuals and for marketers willing to explore the potential of online networking as a low cost and a highly efficient alternative to traditional networking approaches. For most businesses, expert users could be valuable opinion leaders and potential brand influencers. PMID:26321971

Organizational adoption of preemployment drug testing.

PubMed

Spell, C S; Blum, T C

2001-04-01

This study explored the adoption of preemployment drug testing by 360 organizations. Survival models were developed that included internal organizational and labor market factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of adoption of drug testing. Also considered was another set of variables that included social and political variables based on institutional theory. An event history analysis using Cox regressions indicated that both internal organizational and environmental variables predicted adoption of drug testing. Results indicate that the higher the proportion of drug testers in the worksite's industry, the more likely it would be to adopt drug testing. Also, the extent to which an organization uses an internal labor market, voluntary turnover rate, and the extent to which management perceives drugs to be a problem were related to likelihood of adoption of drug testing.

Predictions of Poisson's ratio in cross-ply laminates containing matrix cracks and delaminations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Nottorf, Eric W.

1989-01-01

A damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites has been developed for the combined damage modes of matrix cracks and delaminations. The model is based on the concept of continuum damage mechanics and uses second-order tensor valued internal state variables to represent each mode of damage. The internal state variables are defined as the local volume average of the relative crack face displacements. Since the local volume for delaminations is specified at the laminate level, the constitutive model takes the form of laminate analysis equations modified by the internal state variables. Model implementation is demonstrated for the laminate engineering modulus E(x) and Poisson's ratio nu(xy) of quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminates. The model predictions are in close agreement to experimental results obtained for graphite/epoxy laminates.

Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenson, Naomi L.

Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS-CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North America and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California's Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions--is explored in a large single-model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.

Developing an Intersectional Framework: Engaging "the Decenter" in Language Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romero, Yasmine

2017-01-01

The author explores how current scholarship has investigated diversified identities and identification practices using a variable-by-variable approach. This kind of approach focuses on developing in-depth understandings of particular variables of identity, such as race and gender. However, this kind of approach has also limited language studies…

Approximate median regression for complex survey data with skewed response.

PubMed

Fraser, Raphael André; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Sinha, Debajyoti; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Pan, Yi

2016-12-01

The ready availability of public-use data from various large national complex surveys has immense potential for the assessment of population characteristics using regression models. Complex surveys can be used to identify risk factors for important diseases such as cancer. Existing statistical methods based on estimating equations and/or utilizing resampling methods are often not valid with survey data due to complex survey design features. That is, stratification, multistage sampling, and weighting. In this article, we accommodate these design features in the analysis of highly skewed response variables arising from large complex surveys. Specifically, we propose a double-transform-both-sides (DTBS)'based estimating equations approach to estimate the median regression parameters of the highly skewed response; the DTBS approach applies the same Box-Cox type transformation twice to both the outcome and regression function. The usual sandwich variance estimate can be used in our approach, whereas a resampling approach would be needed for a pseudo-likelihood based on minimizing absolute deviations (MAD). Furthermore, the approach is relatively robust to the true underlying distribution, and has much smaller mean square error than a MAD approach. The method is motivated by an analysis of laboratory data on urinary iodine (UI) concentration from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Closed Loop Control of Automotive Engines

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-12-01

Internal combustion engine economy and emissions are known to be sensitive to changes in engine control variables. Two of the most important variables are fuel/air ratio (f/a) and spark advance. These variables are affected by environmental changes, ...

Predicting Physical Activity-Related Outcomes in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Health Action Process Approach.

PubMed

Hattar, Anne; Pal, Sebely; Hagger, Martin S

2016-03-01

We tested the adequacy of a model based on the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) in predicting changes in psychological, body composition, and cardiovascular risk outcomes with respect to physical activity participation in overweight and obese adults. Measures of HAPA constructs (action and maintenance self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, action planning, risk perceptions, intentions, behaviour), psychological outcomes (quality of life, depression, anxiety, stress symptoms), body composition variables (body weight, body fat mass), cardiovascular risk measures (total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein), and self-reported physical activity behaviour were administered to participants (N = 74) at baseline, and 6 and 12 weeks later. Data were analysed using variance-based structural equation modelling with residualised change scores for HAPA variables. The model revealed effects of action self-efficacy and outcome expectancies on physical activity intentions, action self-efficacy on maintenance self-efficacy, and maintenance self-efficacy and intentions on action planning. Intention predicted psychological and body composition outcomes indirectly through physical activity behaviour. Action planning was a direct predictor of psychological, cardiovascular, and body composition outcomes. Data supported HAPA hypotheses in relation to intentions and behaviour, but not the role of action planning as a mediator of the intention-behaviour relationship. Action planning predicted outcomes independent of intentions and behaviour. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Modified Whole Effluent Toxicity Test to Assess and Decouple Wastewater Effects from Environmental Gradients

PubMed Central

Sauco, Sebastián; Gómez, Julio; Barboza, Francisco R.; Lercari, Diego; Defeo, Omar

2013-01-01

Environmental gradients and wastewater discharges produce aggregated effects on marine populations, obscuring the detection of human impact. Classical assessment methods do not include environmental effects in toxicity tests designs, which could lead to incorrect conclusions. We proposed a modified Whole Effluent Toxicity test (mWET) that includes environmental gradients in addition to effluent dilutions, together with the application of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to assess and decouple those effects. We tested this approach, analyzing the lethal effects of wastewater on a marine sandy beach bivalve affected by an artificial canal freshwater discharge used for rice crops irrigation. To this end, we compared bivalve mortality between canal water dilutions (CWd) and salinity controls (SC: without canal water). CWd were prepared by diluting the water effluent (sampled during the pesticide application period) with artificial marine water. The salinity gradient was included in the design by achieving the same final salinities in both CWd and SC, allowing us to account for the effects of salinity by including this variable as a random factor in the GLMM. Our approach detected significantly higher mortalities in CWd, indicating potential toxic effects of the effluent discharge. mWET represents an improvement over the internationally standardized WET tests, since it considers environmental variability and uses appropriate statistical analyses. PMID:23755304

Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century

PubMed Central

Knutson, Thomas R.; Zhang, Rong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2016-01-01

Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models' warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively. PMID:27901045

External concentration of organic acid anions and pH: key independent variables for studying how organic acids inhibit growth of bacteria in mildly acidic foods.

PubMed

Carpenter, C E; Broadbent, J R

2009-01-01

Although the mechanisms by which organic acids inhibit growth of bacteria in mildly acidic foods are not fully understood, it is clear that intracellular accumulation of anions is a primary contributor to inhibition of bacterial growth. We hypothesize that intracellular accumulation of anions is driven by 2 factors, external anion concentration and external acidity. This hypothesis follows from basic chemistry principles that heretofore have not been fully applied to studies in the field, and it has led us to develop a novel approach for predicting internal anion concentration by controlling the external concentration of anions and pH. This approach overcomes critical flaws in contemporary experimental design that invariably target concentration of either protonated acid or total acid in the growth media thereby leaving anion concentration to vary depending on the pK(a) of the acids involved. Failure to control external concentration of anions has undoubtedly confounded results, and it has likely led to misleading conclusions regarding the antimicrobial action of organic acids. In summary, we advocate an approach for directing internal anion levels by controlling external concentration of anions and pH because it presents an additional opportunity to study the mechanisms by which organic acids inhibit bacterial growth. Knowledge gained from such studies would have important application in the control of important foodborne pathogens such as Listeria monocytogenes, and may also facilitate efforts to promote the survival in foods or beverages of desirable probiotic bacteria.

[Validation of a Japanese version of the Experience in Close Relationship- Relationship Structure].

PubMed

Komura, Kentaro; Murakami, Tatsuya; Toda, Koji

2016-08-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Experience of Close Relationship-Relationship Structure (ECRRS) and evaluate its validity. In study 1 (N = 982), evidence based internal structure (factor structure, internal consistency, and correlation among sub-scales) and evidence based relations to other variables (depression, reassurance seeking and self-esteem) were confirmed. In study 2 (N = 563), evidence based on internal structure was reconfirmed, and evidence based relations to other variables (IWMS, RQ, and ECR-GO) were confirmed. In study 3 (N = 342), evidence based internal structure (test-retest reliability) was confirmed. Based on these results, we concluded that ECR-RS was valid for measuring adult attachment style.

The Role of Individual and Social Variables in Predicting Body Dissatisfaction and Eating Disorder Symptoms among Iranian Adolescent Girls: An Expanding of the Tripartite Influence Mode.

PubMed

Shahyad, Shima; Pakdaman, Shahla; Shokri, Omid; Saadat, Seyed Hassan

2018-01-12

The aim of the present study was to examine the causal relationships between psychological and social factors, being independent variables and body image dissatisfaction plus symptoms of eating disorders as dependent variables through the mediation of social comparison and thin-ideal internalization. To conduct the study, 477 high-school students from Tehran were recruited by method of cluster sampling. Next, they filled out Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (RSES), Physical Appearance Comparison Scale (PACS), Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), Appearance Perfectionism Scale (APS), Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI), Multidimensional Body Self Relations Questionnaire (MBSRQ) and Sociocultural Attitudes towards Appearance Questionnaire (SATAQ-4). In the end, collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Findings showed that the assumed model perfectly fitted the data after modification and as a result, all the path-coefficients of latent variables (except for the path between self-esteem and thin-ideal internalization) were statistically significant (p>0.05). Also, in this model, 75% of scores' distribution of body dissatisfaction was explained through psychological variables, socio-cultural variables, social comparison and internalization of the thin ideal. The results of the present study provid experimental basis for the confirmation of proposed causal model. The combination of psychological, social and cultural variables could efficiently predict body image dissatisfaction of young girls in Iran.

Pisa syndrome in Parkinson's disease: An integrated approach from pathophysiology to management.

PubMed

Tinazzi, Michele; Geroin, Christian; Gandolfi, Marialuisa; Smania, Nicola; Tamburin, Stefano; Morgante, Francesca; Fasano, Alfonso

2016-12-01

Pisa syndrome was first described in 1972 in patients treated with neuroleptics. Since 2003, when it was first reported in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD), Pisa syndrome has progressively drawn the attention of clinicians and researchers. Although emerging evidence has partially clarified its prevalence and pathophysiology, the current debate revolves around diagnostic criteria and assessment and the effectiveness of pharmacological, surgical, and rehabilitative approaches. Contrary to initial thought, Pisa syndrome is common among PD patients, with an estimated prevalence of 8.8% according to a large survey. Furthermore, it is associated with the following specific patient features: more severe motor phenotype, ongoing combined pharmacological treatment with levodopa and dopamine agonists, gait disorders, and such comorbidities as osteoporosis and arthrosis. The present literature on treatment outcomes is scant, and the uneven effectiveness of specific treatments has produced conflicting results. This might be because of the limited knowledge of Pisa syndrome pathophysiology and its variable clinical presentation, which further complicates designing randomized clinical trials on this condition. However, because some forms of Pisa syndrome are potentially reversible, there is growing consensus on the importance of its early recognition and the importance of pharmacological adjustment and rehabilitation. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

A shift toward building with nature in the dredging and port development industries: managerial implications for projects in or near Natura 2000 areas.

PubMed

Vikolainen, Vera; Bressers, Hans; Lulofs, Kris

2014-07-01

Building with Nature is a new approach to designing water infrastructure, one that seeks to realize socioeconomic project goals in harmony with the environment. The Dutch dredging industry is promoting its application in the Netherlands, but similar concepts are emerging internationally. The Working with Nature concept has been developed under the auspices of the World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructure, Engineering with Nature by the US Army Corps of Engineers, and Flanders Bays 2100 by a group of Belgian dredging companies and international consultants. The research discussed in this article focuses on the feasibility of implementing the Building with Nature approach in the context of EU Natura 2000 governance. The initial expectation of the industry was that Natura 2000 regulations would obstruct innovative Building with Nature attempts. The empirical evidence points to a shift toward Building with Nature have taken place on the governance and project levels, and the goals of Natura 2000 and Building with Nature converging in practice. Using specific project-level variables identified by researchers, guidance for project development in Natura 2000 areas was proposed. We conclude by discussing the implications of the research results for the dredging industry dealing with Natura 2000 regulations in Europe and similar overarching nature regulations elsewhere.

Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology.

PubMed

Fox, Eric W; Hill, Ryan A; Leibowitz, Scott G; Olsen, Anthony R; Thornbrugh, Darren J; Weber, Marc H

2017-07-01

Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological data sets, there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, either a preselected set of predictor variables are used or stepwise procedures are employed which iteratively remove variables according to their importance measures. This paper investigates the application of variable selection methods to RF models for predicting probable biological stream condition. Our motivating data set consists of the good/poor condition of n = 1365 stream survey sites from the 2008/2009 National Rivers and Stream Assessment, and a large set (p = 212) of landscape features from the StreamCat data set as potential predictors. We compare two types of RF models: a full variable set model with all 212 predictors and a reduced variable set model selected using a backward elimination approach. We assess model accuracy using RF's internal out-of-bag estimate, and a cross-validation procedure with validation folds external to the variable selection process. We also assess the stability of the spatial predictions generated by the RF models to changes in the number of predictors and argue that model selection needs to consider both accuracy and stability. The results suggest that RF modeling is robust to the inclusion of many variables of moderate to low importance. We found no substantial improvement in cross-validated accuracy as a result of variable reduction. Moreover, the backward elimination procedure tended to select too few variables and exhibited numerous issues such as upwardly biased out-of-bag accuracy estimates and instabilities in the spatial predictions. We use simulations to further support and generalize results from the analysis of real data. A main purpose of this work is to elucidate issues of model selection bias and instability to ecologists interested in using RF to develop predictive models with large environmental data sets.

The association between histological, macroscopic and magnetic resonance imaging assessed synovitis in end-stage knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Riis, R G C; Gudbergsen, H; Simonsen, O; Henriksen, M; Al-Mashkur, N; Eld, M; Petersen, K K; Kubassova, O; Bay Jensen, A C; Damm, J; Bliddal, H; Arendt-Nielsen, L; Boesen, M

2017-02-01

To investigate the association between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), macroscopic and histological assessments of synovitis in end-stage knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Synovitis of end-stage osteoarthritic knees was assessed using non-contrast-enhanced (CE), contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (CE-MRI) and dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-MRI prior to (TKR) and correlated with microscopic and macroscopic assessments of synovitis obtained intraoperatively. Multiple bivariate correlations were used with a pre-specified threshold of 0.70 for significance. Also, multiple regression analyses with different subsets of MRI-variables as explanatory variables and the histology score as outcome variable were performed with the intention to find MRI-variables that best explain the variance in histological synovitis (i.e., highest R 2 ). A stepped approach was taken starting with basic characteristics and non-CE MRI-variables (model 1), after which CE-MRI-variables were added (model 2) with the final model also including DCE-MRI-variables (model 3). 39 patients (56.4% women, mean age 68 years, Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade 4) had complete MRI and histological data. Only the DCE-MRI variable MExNvoxel (surrogate of the volume and degree of synovitis) and the macroscopic score showed correlations above the pre-specified threshold for acceptance with histological inflammation. The maximum R 2 -value obtained in Model 1 was R 2  = 0.39. In Model 2, where the CE-MRI-variables were added, the highest R 2  = 0.52. In Model 3, a four-variable model consisting of the gender, one CE-MRI and two DCE-MRI-variables yielded a R 2  = 0.71. DCE-MRI is correlated with histological synovitis in end-stage KOA and the combination of CE and DCE-MRI may be a useful, non-invasive tool in characterising synovitis in KOA. Copyright © 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Employing 454 amplicon pyrosequencing to reveal intragenomic divergence in the internal transcribed spacer rDNA region in fungi

Treesearch

Daniel L. Lindner; Tor Carlsen; Henrik Nilsson; Marie Davey; Trond Schumacher; Havard. Kauserud

2013-01-01

The rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region has been accepted as a DNA barcoding marker for fungi and is widely used in phylogenetic studies; however, intragenomic ITS variability has been observed in a broad range of taxa, including prokaryotes, plants, animals, and fungi, and this variability has the potential to inflate species richness estimates in molecular...

Attitudinal and Motivational Variables Related to Mathematics Achievement in Jordan: Findings from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammouri, Hind

2004-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of student-related variables on achievement in mathematics. The sample consisted of 3736 13-year-old Jordanian 8th-graders who participated in the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). The participants completed a student questionnaire and participated in the…

How predictable are equatorial Atlantic surface winds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin

2017-04-01

Sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model (GCM) as well as experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the extent to which sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies contribute to the variability and predictability of monthly mean surface winds in the equatorial Atlantic. In the SINTEX-F experiments, a control experiment with prescribed observed SST for the period 1982-2014 is modified by inserting climatological values in certain regions, thereby eliminating SST anomalies. When SSTs are set to climatology in the tropical Atlantic only (30S to 30N), surface wind variability over the equatorial Atlantic (5S-5N) decreases by about 40% in April-May-June (AMJ). This suggests that about 60% of surface wind variability is due to either internal atmospheric variability or SSTs anomalies outside the tropical Atlantic. A further experiment with climatological SSTs in the equatorial Pacific indicates that another 10% of variability in AMJ may be due to remote influences from that basin. Experiments from the CMIP5 archive, in which climatological SSTs are prescribed globally, tend to confirm the results from SINTEX-F but show a wide spread. In some models, the equatorial Atlantic surface wind variability decreases by more than 90%, while in others it even increases. Overall, the results suggest that about 50-60% of surface wind variance in AMJ is predictable, while the rest is due to internal atmospheric variability. Other months show significantly lower predictability. The relatively strong internal variability as well as the influence of remote SSTs suggest a limited role for coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in equatorial Atlantic variability.

International spinal cord injury skin and thermoregulation function basic data set.

PubMed

Karlsson, A K; Krassioukov, A; Alexander, M S; Donovan, W; Biering-Sørensen, F

2012-07-01

To create an international spinal cord injury (SCI) skin and thermoregulation basic data set within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets. An international working group. The draft of the data set was developed by a working group comprising members appointed by the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA), the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and a representative of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets. The final version of the data set was developed after review and comments by members of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets, the ISCoS Scientific Committee, ASIA Board, relevant and interested international organizations and societies, individual persons with specific interest and the ISCoS Council. To make the data set uniform, each variable and each response category within each variable have been specifically defined to promote the collection and reporting of comparable minimal data. Variables included in the present data set are: date of data collection, thermoregulation history after SCI, including hyperthermia or hypothermia (noninfectious or infectious), as well as the history of hyperhidrosis or hypohidrosis above or below level of lesion. Body temperature and the time of measurement are included. Details regarding the presence of any pressure ulcer and stage, location and size of the ulcer(s), date of appearance of the ulcer(s) and whether surgical treatment has been performed are included. The history of any pressure ulcer during the last 12 months is also noted.

Commentary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wertsch, James V.

1993-01-01

Agrees with the distinction, made by Lawrence and Valsiner in the previous article, between theoretical approaches concerning internalization that view internalization as cultural transmission and internalization as constructive transformation. Concurs with criticisms of these approaches, and questions the need for the notion of internalization in…

Commutability of the First World Health Organization International Standard for Human Cytomegalovirus

PubMed Central

Preiksaitis, J.; Tong, Y.; Pang, X.; Sun, Y.; Tang, L.; Cook, L.; Pounds, S.; Fryer, J.; Caliendo, A. M.

2015-01-01

Quantitative detection of cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNA has become a standard part of care for many groups of immunocompromised patients; recent development of the first WHO international standard for human CMV DNA has raised hopes of reducing interlaboratory variability of results. Commutability of reference material has been shown to be necessary if such material is to reduce variability among laboratories. Here we evaluated the commutability of the WHO standard using 10 different real-time quantitative CMV PCR assays run by eight different laboratories. Test panels, including aliquots of 50 patient samples (40 positive samples and 10 negative samples) and lyophilized CMV standard, were run, with each testing center using its own quantitative calibrators, reagents, and nucleic acid extraction methods. Commutability was assessed both on a pairwise basis and over the entire group of assays, using linear regression and correspondence analyses. Commutability of the WHO material differed among the tests that were evaluated, and these differences appeared to vary depending on the method of statistical analysis used and the cohort of assays included in the analysis. Depending on the methodology used, the WHO material showed poor or absent commutability with up to 50% of assays. Determination of commutability may require a multifaceted approach; the lack of commutability seen when using the WHO standard with several of the assays here suggests that further work is needed to bring us toward true consensus. PMID:26269622

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

The Effect of Seasonal and Long-Period Geopotential Variations on the GPS Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melachroinos, Stavros A.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Chinn, Douglas S.; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Nicholas, Joseph B.; Beckley, Brian D.

2013-01-01

We examine the impact of using seasonal and long-period time-variable gravity field (TVG) models on GPS orbit determination, through simulations from 1994 to 2012. The models of time-variable gravity that we test include the GRGS release RL02 GRACE-derived 10-day gravity field models up to degree and order 20 (grgs20x20), a 4 x 4 series of weekly coefficients using GGM03S as a base derived from SLR and DORIS tracking to 11 satellites (tvg4x4), and a harmonic fit to the above 4 x 4 SLR-DORIS time series (goco2s_fit2). These detailed models are compared to GPS orbit simulations using a reference model (stdtvg) based on the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) and International GNSS Service (IGS) repro1 standards. We find that the new TVG modeling produces significant along, cross-track orbit differences as well as annual, semi-annual, draconitic and long-period effects in the Helmert translation parameters (Tx, Ty, Tz) of the GPS orbits with magnitudes of several mm. We show that the simplistic TVG modeling approach used by all of the IGS Analysis Centers, which is based on the models provided by the IERS standards, becomes progressively less adequate following 2006 when compared to the seasonal and long-period TVG models.

Comparison between bottom-up and top-down approaches in the estimation of measurement uncertainty.

PubMed

Lee, Jun Hyung; Choi, Jee-Hye; Youn, Jae Saeng; Cha, Young Joo; Song, Woonheung; Park, Ae Ja

2015-06-01

Measurement uncertainty is a metrological concept to quantify the variability of measurement results. There are two approaches to estimate measurement uncertainty. In this study, we sought to provide practical and detailed examples of the two approaches and compare the bottom-up and top-down approaches to estimating measurement uncertainty. We estimated measurement uncertainty of the concentration of glucose according to CLSI EP29-A guideline. Two different approaches were used. First, we performed a bottom-up approach. We identified the sources of uncertainty and made an uncertainty budget and assessed the measurement functions. We determined the uncertainties of each element and combined them. Second, we performed a top-down approach using internal quality control (IQC) data for 6 months. Then, we estimated and corrected systematic bias using certified reference material of glucose (NIST SRM 965b). The expanded uncertainties at the low glucose concentration (5.57 mmol/L) by the bottom-up approach and top-down approaches were ±0.18 mmol/L and ±0.17 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). Those at the high glucose concentration (12.77 mmol/L) by the bottom-up and top-down approaches were ±0.34 mmol/L and ±0.36 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). We presented practical and detailed examples for estimating measurement uncertainty by the two approaches. The uncertainties by the bottom-up approach were quite similar to those by the top-down approach. Thus, we demonstrated that the two approaches were approximately equivalent and interchangeable and concluded that clinical laboratories could determine measurement uncertainty by the simpler top-down approach.

Tourism development and economic growth a nonlinear approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Po, Wan-Chen; Huang, Bwo-Nung

2008-09-01

We use cross sectional data (1995-2005 yearly averages) for 88 countries to investigate the nonlinear relationship between tourism development and economic growth when a threshold variable is used. The degree of tourism specialization ( qi, defined as receipts from international tourism as a percentage of GDP) is used as the threshold variable. The results of the tests for nonlinearity indicate that the 88 countries’ data should be separated into three different groups or regimes to analyze the tourism-growth nexus. The results of the threshold regression show that when the qi is below 4.0488% (regime 1, 57 countries) or above 4.7337% (regime 3, 23 countries), there exists a significantly positive relationship between tourism growth and economic growth. However, when the qi is above 4.0488% and below 4.7337% (regime 2, 8 countries), we are unable to find evidence of such a significant relationship. Further in-depth analysis reveals that relatively low ratios of the value added of the service industry to GDP, and the forested area per country area are able to explain why we are unable to find a significant relationship between these two variables in regime 2’s countries.

International spinal cord injury cardiovascular function basic data set.

PubMed

Krassioukov, A; Alexander, M S; Karlsson, A-K; Donovan, W; Mathias, C J; Biering-Sørensen, F

2010-08-01

To create an International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Cardiovascular Function Basic Data Set within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets. An international working group. The draft of the data set was developed by a working group comprising members appointed by the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA), the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and a representative of the executive committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets. The final version of the data set was developed after review by members of the executive committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets, the ISCoS scientific committee, ASIA board, relevant and interested international organizations and societies, individual persons with specific interest and the ISCoS Council. To make the data set uniform, each variable and each response category within each variable have been specifically defined in a way that is designed to promote the collection and reporting of comparable minimal data. The variables included in the International SCI Cardiovascular Function Basic Data Set include the following items: date of data collection, cardiovascular history before the spinal cord lesion, events related to cardiovascular function after the spinal cord lesion, cardiovascular function after the spinal cord lesion, medications affecting cardiovascular function on the day of examination; and objective measures of cardiovascular functions, including time of examination, position of examination, pulse and blood pressure. The complete instructions for data collection and the data sheet itself are freely available on the websites of both ISCoS (http://www.iscos.org.uk) and ASIA (http://www.asia-spinalinjury.org).

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppick, Andrew; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Stein, Michael L.

2017-06-01

Given uncertainties in physical theory and numerical climate simulations, the historical temperature record is often used as a source of empirical information about climate change. Many historical trend analyses appear to de-emphasize physical and statistical assumptions: examples include regression models that treat time rather than radiative forcing as the relevant covariate, and time series methods that account for internal variability in nonparametric rather than parametric ways. However, given a limited data record and the presence of internal variability, estimating radiatively forced temperature trends in the historical record necessarily requires some assumptions. Ostensibly empirical methods can also involve an inherent conflict in assumptions: they require data records that are short enough for naive trend models to be applicable, but long enough for long-timescale internal variability to be accounted for. In the context of global mean temperatures, empirical methods that appear to de-emphasize assumptions can therefore produce misleading inferences, because the trend over the twentieth century is complex and the scale of temporal correlation is long relative to the length of the data record. We illustrate here how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable trend estimates and can allow for a wider array of questions to be addressed. In particular, the model allows one to distinguish, within a single statistical framework, between uncertainties in the shorter-term vs. longer-term response to radiative forcing, with implications not only on historical trends but also on uncertainties in future projections. We also investigate the consequence on inferred uncertainties of the choice of a statistical description of internal variability. While nonparametric methods may seem to avoid making explicit assumptions, we demonstrate how even misspecified parametric statistical methods, if attuned to the important characteristics of internal variability, can result in more accurate uncertainty statements about trends.

Sensitive single-stage PCR using custom-synthesized internal controls.

PubMed

Zimmermann, K; Rieger, M; Gross, P; Turecek, P L; Schwarz, H P

2000-04-01

A new approach for an internally controlled PCR was developed using a custom-synthesized oligonucleotide as the internal control. Three different PCR setups demonstrated the usefulness of this approach: (i) the addition of the respective internal control to samples containing ssDNA virus Parvo B19; (ii) the co-extraction of plasma samples and the respective internal control for the detection of the ssDNA virus TTV; and (iii) the addition of the respective internal control to a crude lysate of tail pieces for the genotyping of FVIII knockout mice, demonstrating that this approach is also applicable for dsDNA.

A contemporary approach to the prevention of peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis in children: the role of improvement science.

PubMed

Redpath Mahon, Allison; Neu, Alicia M

2017-08-01

Peritonitis is a leading cause of hospitalizations, morbidity, and modality change in pediatric chronic peritoneal dialysis (CPD) patients. Despite guidelines published by the International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis aimed at reducing the risk of peritonitis, registry data have revealed significant variability in peritonitis rates among centers caring for children on CPD, which suggests variability in practice. Improvement science methods have been used to reduce a variety of healthcare-associated infections and are also being applied successfully to decrease rates of peritonitis in children. A successful quality improvement program with the goal of decreasing peritonitis will not only include primary drivers directly linked to the outcome of peritonitis, but will also direct attention to secondary drivers that are important for the achievement of primary drivers, such as health literacy and patient and family engagement strategies. In this review, we describe a comprehensive improvement science model for the reduction of peritonitis in pediatric patients on CPD.

High resolution LiDAR measurements reveal fine internal structure and variability of sediment-carrying coastal plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavialov, P. O.; Pelevin, V. V.; Belyaev, N. A.; Izhitskiy, A. S.; Konovalov, B. V.; Krementskiy, V. V.; Goncharenko, I. V.; Osadchiev, A. A.; Soloviev, D. M.; Garcia, C. A. E.; Pereira, E. S.; Sartorato, L.; Moller, O. O.

2018-05-01

We report results of a field survey conducted in the buoyant, sediment-carrying coastal plume generated by the discharge from the Patos Lagoon, the World's largest choked lagoon. The concentration of total suspended matter (TSM) and organic matter (as represented by total organic carbon, TOC) were mapped using an ultraviolet fluorescent LiDAR, which allowed for extensive data coverage (total of 79,387 simultaneous determinations of TSM and TOC) during 3 consecutive days. These observations were accompanied by hydrographic measurements from the ship and at a mooring station. We first describe synoptic variability of the plume, which responded energetically to wind forcing. We then analyze the TSM, TOC and hydrographic data jointly and develop a simple approach to estimate the rates of suspended matter removal from the upper layer due to gravitational settling and turbulent mixing based on relative changes in TSM and TOC concentrations. Four distinct regions within the plume exhibiting different dynamics of suspended and dissolved constituents were identified on this basis.

A variant of the anomaly initialisation approach for global climate forecast models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy; Carrassi, Alberto

2014-05-01

This work presents a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following particularities: - the use of a weight to the anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing too big anomalies recorded in the observed state, whose amplitude does not fit the range of the internal variability generated by the model. - the AI of the temperature and density ocean state variables instead of the temperature and salinity. Results show that the use of such refinements improve the skill over the Arctic region, part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the North and South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea. In the Tropical Pacific the full field initialised experiment performs better. This is probably due to a displacement of the observed anomalies caused by the use of the AI technique. Furthermore, preliminary results of an anomaly nudging experiment are discussed.

Development and Validation of Triarchic Construct Scales from the Psychopathic Personality Inventory

PubMed Central

Hall, Jason R.; Drislane, Laura E.; Patrick, Christopher J.; Morano, Mario; Lilienfeld, Scott O.; Poythress, Norman G.

2014-01-01

The Triarchic model of psychopathy describes this complex condition in terms of distinct phenotypic components of boldness, meanness, and disinhibition. Brief self-report scales designed specifically to index these psychopathy facets have thus far demonstrated promising construct validity. The present study sought to develop and validate scales for assessing facets of the Triarchic model using items from a well-validated existing measure of psychopathy—the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI). A consensus rating approach was used to identify PPI items relevant to each Triarchic facet, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the resulting PPI-based Triarchic scales were evaluated in relation to multiple criterion variables (i.e., other psychopathy inventories, antisocial personality disorder features, personality traits, psychosocial functioning) in offender and non-offender samples. The PPI-based Triarchic scales showed good internal consistency and related to criterion variables in ways consistent with predictions based on the Triarchic model. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for conceptualization and assessment of psychopathy. PMID:24447280

Development and validation of Triarchic construct scales from the psychopathic personality inventory.

PubMed

Hall, Jason R; Drislane, Laura E; Patrick, Christopher J; Morano, Mario; Lilienfeld, Scott O; Poythress, Norman G

2014-06-01

The Triarchic model of psychopathy describes this complex condition in terms of distinct phenotypic components of boldness, meanness, and disinhibition. Brief self-report scales designed specifically to index these psychopathy facets have thus far demonstrated promising construct validity. The present study sought to develop and validate scales for assessing facets of the Triarchic model using items from a well-validated existing measure of psychopathy-the Psychopathic Personality Inventory (PPI). A consensus-rating approach was used to identify PPI items relevant to each Triarchic facet, and the convergent and discriminant validity of the resulting PPI-based Triarchic scales were evaluated in relation to multiple criterion variables (i.e., other psychopathy inventories, antisocial personality disorder features, personality traits, psychosocial functioning) in offender and nonoffender samples. The PPI-based Triarchic scales showed good internal consistency and related to criterion variables in ways consistent with predictions based on the Triarchic model. Findings are discussed in terms of implications for conceptualization and assessment of psychopathy.

Characterization of enzymatic micromachining for construction of variable cross-section microchannel topologies

PubMed Central

Ruggles, Molly E.; Jayaraman, Arul; Ugaz, Victor M.

2016-01-01

The ability to harness enzymatic activity as an etchant to precisely machine biodegradable substrates introduces new possibilities for microfabrication. This flow-based etching is straightforward to implement, enabling patterning of microchannels with topologies that incorporate variable depth along the cross-sectional dimension. Additionally, unlike conventional small-molecule formulations, the macromolecular nature of enzymatic etchants enables features to be precisely positioned. Here, we introduce a kinetic model to characterize the enzymatic machining process and its localization by co-injection of a macromolecular inhibitor species. Our model captures the interaction between enzyme, inhibitor, and substrate under laminar flow, enabling rational prediction of etched microchannel profiles so that cross-sectional topologies incorporating complex lateral variations in depth can be constructed. We also apply this approach to achieve simultaneous widening of an entire network of microchannels produced in the biodegradable polymeric substrate poly(lactic acid), laying a foundation to construct systems incorporating a broad range of internal cross-sectional dimensions by manipulating the process conditions. PMID:27190566

Reliability Analysis of Retaining Walls Subjected to Blast Loading by Finite Element Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GuhaRay, Anasua; Mondal, Stuti; Mohiuddin, Hisham Hasan

2018-02-01

Conventional design methods adopt factor of safety as per practice and experience, which are deterministic in nature. The limit state method, though not completely deterministic, does not take into account effect of design parameters, which are inherently variable such as cohesion, angle of internal friction, etc. for soil. Reliability analysis provides a measure to consider these variations into analysis and hence results in a more realistic design. Several studies have been carried out on reliability of reinforced concrete walls and masonry walls under explosions. Also, reliability analysis of retaining structures against various kinds of failure has been done. However, very few research works are available on reliability analysis of retaining walls subjected to blast loading. Thus, the present paper considers the effect of variation of geotechnical parameters when a retaining wall is subjected to blast loading. However, it is found that the variation of geotechnical random variables does not have a significant effect on the stability of retaining walls subjected to blast loading.

A Conceptual Approach to the Problem of Action-Angle Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zung, Nguyen Tien

2018-02-01

In this paper we develop a general conceptual approach to the problem of existence of action-angle variables for dynamical systems, which establishes and uses the fundamental conservation property of associated torus actions: anything which is preserved by the system is also preserved by the associated torus actions. This approach allows us to obtain, among other things: (a) the shortest and most easy-to-understand conceptual proof of the classical Arnold-Liouville-Mineur theorem; (b) basically all known results in the literature about the existence of action-angle variables in various contexts can be recovered in a unifying way, with simple proofs, using our approach; (c) new results on action-angle variables in many different contexts, including systems on contact manifolds, systems on presymplectic and Dirac manifolds, action-angle variables near singularities, stochastic systems, and so on. Even when there are no natural action variables, our approach still leads to useful normal forms for dynamical systems, which are not necessarily integrable.

Random Initialisation of the Spectral Variables: an Alternate Approach for Initiating Multivariate Curve Resolution Alternating Least Square (MCR-ALS) Analysis.

PubMed

Kumar, Keshav

2017-11-01

Multivariate curve resolution alternating least square (MCR-ALS) analysis is the most commonly used curve resolution technique. The MCR-ALS model is fitted using the alternate least square (ALS) algorithm that needs initialisation of either contribution profiles or spectral profiles of each of the factor. The contribution profiles can be initialised using the evolve factor analysis; however, in principle, this approach requires that data must belong to the sequential process. The initialisation of the spectral profiles are usually carried out using the pure variable approach such as SIMPLISMA algorithm, this approach demands that each factor must have the pure variables in the data sets. Despite these limitations, the existing approaches have been quite a successful for initiating the MCR-ALS analysis. However, the present work proposes an alternate approach for the initialisation of the spectral variables by generating the random variables in the limits spanned by the maxima and minima of each spectral variable of the data set. The proposed approach does not require that there must be pure variables for each component of the multicomponent system or the concentration direction must follow the sequential process. The proposed approach is successfully validated using the excitation-emission matrix fluorescence data sets acquired for certain fluorophores with significant spectral overlap. The calculated contribution and spectral profiles of these fluorophores are found to correlate well with the experimental results. In summary, the present work proposes an alternate way to initiate the MCR-ALS analysis.

A solid-phase microextraction-gas chromatographic approach combined with triple quadrupole mass spectrometry for the assay of carbamate pesticides in water samples.

PubMed

Cavaliere, Brunella; Monteleone, Marcello; Naccarato, Attilio; Sindona, Giovanni; Tagarelli, Antonio

2012-09-28

A simple and sensitive method was developed for the quantification of five carbamate pesticides in water samples using solid phase microextraction (SPME) combined with gas chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-QqQ-MS). The performance of five SPME fibers was tested in univariate mode whereas the other variables affecting the efficiency of SPME analysis were optimized by the multivariate approach of design of experiment (DoE) and, in particular, a central composite design (CCD) was applied. The optimum working conditions in terms of response values were achieved by performing analysis with polydimethylsiloxane/divinylbenzene (PDMS/DVB) fiber in immersion mode for 45min at room temperature with addition of NaCl (10%). The multivariate chemometric approach was also used to explore the chromatographic behavior of the carbamates and to evaluate the importance of each variable investigated. An overall appraisement of results shows that the factor which gave a statistically significant effect on the response was only the injection temperature. Identification and quantification of carbamates was performed by using a gas chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry (GC-QqQ-MS) system in multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) acquisition. Since the choice of internal standard represented a crucial step in the development of method to achieve good reproducibility and robustness for the entire analytical protocol, three compounds (2,3,5-trimethacarb, 4-bromo-3,5-dimethylphenyl-n-methylcarbamate (BDMC) and carbaryl-d7) were evaluated as internal standards. Both precision and accuracy of the proposed protocol tested at concentration of 0.08, 5 and 3 μg l⁻¹ offered values ranging from 70.8% and 115.7% (except for carbaryl at 3 μg l⁻¹) and from 1.0% and 9.0% for accuracy and precision, respectively. Moreover, LOD and LOQ values ranging from 0.04 to 1.7 ng l⁻¹ and from 0.64 to 2.9 ng l⁻¹, respectively, can be considered very satisfactory. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing a global ocean observing system that prioritises ecosystem variables from a political and societal point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miloslavich, P.; Bax, N. J.; Simmons, S. E.; Appeltans, W.; Garcia, M.

2016-02-01

The Biology and Ecosystems Panel of GOOS aims to develop and coordinate efforts to implement a sustained and targeted global ocean observation system. This system will be driven by societal needs (including the Sustainable Development Goals), and identify Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) to inform priority scientific and societal questions that will facilitate critical policy development and management decision-making on ocean and coastal resource sustainability and health. Mature EOVs need to have global relevance and the capacity for global measurement. Our goal is to implement at least one (set of) mature EOVs by 2019, and identify a further three (sets of) pilot EOVs with a clear pathway to maturity. Our initial work includes (1) identifying drivers and pressures of societal and scientific needs, and (2) identifying internationally agreed goals that need sustained global observations of ocean biological & ecosystem variables for a healthy ocean. We reviewed 24 major conventions/international organizations (including the CBD and 16 UN related) to identify the societal needs these organizations address through their goals, and to produce a set of overlapping objectives. Main drivers identified in these conventions were: knowledge (science/data access), development (sustainable economic growth), conservation (biodiversity & ecosystems), sustainable use (biodiversity & resources), environmental quality (health), capacity building (technology transfer), food security, threat prevention and impact mitigation (to different pressures) and improved management (integrated ecosystem approach). The main pressures identified were climate change, ocean acidification, extreme weather events, overfishing/ overexploitation, pollution/ eutrophication, mining, solid wastes. Our next step will be to develop consensus with the observing community about the EOVs that will meet these needs and support the expansion of these identified EOVs into successful global observing systems.

Identifying at-risk profiles and protective factors for problem gambling: A longitudinal study across adolescence and early adulthood.

PubMed

Allami, Youssef; Vitaro, Frank; Brendgen, Mara; Carbonneau, René; Tremblay, Richard E

2018-05-01

Past studies have identified various risk and protective factors for problem gambling (PG). However, no study has examined the interplay between these factors using a combination of person-centered and variable-centered approaches embedded within a longitudinal design. The present study aimed to (a) identify distinct profiles in early adolescence based on a set of risk factors commonly associated with PG (impulsivity, depression, anxiety, drug-alcohol use, aggressiveness, and antisociality), (b) explore the difference in reported gambling problems between these profiles during midadolescence and early adulthood, and (c) identify family- and peer-related variables that could operate as protective or compensatory factors in this context. Two samples were used: (a) a population sample (N = 1,033) living in low socioeconomic-status neighborhoods and (b) a population sample (N = 3,017) representative of students attending Quebec schools. Latent profile analyses were conducted to identify at-risk profiles based on individual risk factors measured at age 12 years. Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare profiles in terms of their reported gambling problems at ages 16 and 23. Finally, family- and peer-related variables measured at age 14 were included to test their protective or compensatory role with respect to the link between at-risk profiles and gambling problems. Four profiles were identified: well-adjusted, internalizing, externalizing, and comorbid. Compared to the well-adjusted profile, the externalizing and comorbid profiles reported more gambling problems at ages 16 and 23, but the internalizing profile did not differ significantly. Various protective and compensatory factors emerged for each profile at both time points. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The internal processes and behavioral dynamics of hospital boards: an exploration of differences between high- and low-performing hospitals.

PubMed

Kane, Nancy M; Clark, Jonathan R; Rivenson, Howard L

2009-01-01

Nonprofit hospital boards are under increasing pressure to improve financial, clinical, and charitable and community benefit performance. Most research on board effectiveness focuses on variables measuring board structure and attributes associated with competing ideal models of board roles. However, the results do not provide clear evidence that one role is superior to another and suggest that in practice boards pursue hybrid roles. Board dynamics and processes have received less attention from researchers, but emerging theoretical frameworks highlight them as key to effective corporate governance. We explored differences in board processes and behavioral dynamics between financially high- and low-performing hospitals, with the goal of developing a better understanding of the best board practices in nonprofit hospitals. A comparative case study approach allowed for in-depth, qualitative assessments of how the internal workings of boards differ between low- and high-performing facilities. Boards of hospitals with strong financial performance exhibited behavioral dynamics and internal processes that differed in important ways from those of hospitals with poor financial performance. Boards need to actively attend to key processes and foster positive group dynamics in decision making to be more effective in governing hospitals.

Stability of Intercellular Exchange of Biochemical Substances Affected by Variability of Environmental Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Budinčević, Mirko; Balaž, Igor; Mihailović, Anja

Communication between cells is realized by exchange of biochemical substances. Due to internal organization of living systems and variability of external parameters, the exchange is heavily influenced by perturbations of various parameters at almost all stages of the process. Since communication is one of essential processes for functioning of living systems it is of interest to investigate conditions for its stability. Using previously developed simplified model of bacterial communication in a form of coupled difference logistic equations we investigate stability of exchange of signaling molecules under variability of internal and external parameters.

International lower urinary tract function basic spinal cord injury data set.

PubMed

Biering-Sørensen, F; Craggs, M; Kennelly, M; Schick, E; Wyndaele, J-J

2008-05-01

To create the International Lower Urinary Tract Function Basic Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Data Set within the framework of the International SCI Data Sets. International working group. The draft of the Data Set was developed by a working group consisting of the members appointed by the International Continence Society, the European Association of Urology, the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA), the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) and a representative of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets. The final version of the Data Set was developed after review and comments by the members of the Executive Committee of the International SCI Standards and Data Sets, the ISCoS Scientific Committee, ASIA Board, relevant and interested (international) organizations and societies (around 40) and persons, and the ISCoS Council. Endorsement of the Data Set by relevant organizations and societies will be obtained. To make the Data Set uniform, each variable and each response category within each variable have been specifically defined in a way that is designed to promote the collection and reporting of comparable minimal data. Variables included in the International Lower Urinary Tract Function Basic SCI Data Set are as follows: date of data collection, urinary tract impairment unrelated to spinal cord lesion, awareness of the need to empty the bladder, bladder emptying, average number of voluntary bladder emptyings per day during the last week, incontinence within the last 3 months, collecting appliances for urinary incontinence, any drugs for the urinary tract within the last year, surgical procedures on the urinary tract and any change in urinary symptoms within the last year. Complete instruction for data collection, data sheet and training cases available at the website of ISCoS (www.iscos.org.uk) and ASIA (www.asia-spinalinjury.org).

Linking environmental variability to population and community dynamics: Chapter 7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pantel, Jelena H.; Pendleton, Daniel E.; Walters, Annika W.; Rogers, Lauren A.

2014-01-01

Linking population and community responses to environmental variability lies at the heart of ecology, yet methodological approaches vary and existence of broad patterns spanning taxonomic groups remains unclear. We review the characteristics of environmental and biological variability. Classic approaches to link environmental variability to population and community variability are discussed as are the importance of biotic factors such as life history and community interactions. In addition to classic approaches, newer techniques such as information theory and artificial neural networks are reviewed. The establishment and expansion of observing networks will provide new long-term ecological time-series data, and with it, opportunities to incorporate environmental variability into research. This review can help guide future research in the field of ecological and environmental variability.

A full quantum analysis of the Stern-Gerlach experiment using the evolution operator method: analyzing current issues in teaching quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benítez Rodríguez, E.; Arévalo Aguilar, L. M.; Piceno Martínez, E.

2017-03-01

To the quantum mechanics specialists community it is a well-known fact that the famous original Stern-Gerlach experiment (SGE) produces entanglement between the external degrees of freedom (position) and the internal degree of freedom (spin) of silver atoms. Despite this fact, almost all textbooks on quantum mechanics explain this experiment using a semiclassical approach, where the external degrees of freedom are considered classical variables, the internal degree is treated as a quantum variable, and Newton's second law is used to describe the dynamics. In the literature there are some works that analyze this experiment in its full quantum mechanical form. However, astonishingly, to the best of our knowledge the original experiment, where the initial states of the spin degree of freedom are randomly oriented coming from the oven, has not been analyzed yet in the available textbooks using the Schrödinger equation (to the best of our knowledge there is only one paper that treats this case: Hsu et al (2011 Phys. Rev. A 83 012109)). Therefore, in this contribution we use the time-evolution operator to give a full quantum mechanics analysis of the SGE when the initial state of the internal degree of freedom is completely random, i.e. when it is a statistical mixture. Additionally, as the SGE and the development of quantum mechanics are heavily intermingled, we analyze some features and drawbacks in the current teaching of quantum mechanics. We focus on textbooks that use the SGE as a starting point, based on the fact that most physicist do not use results from physics education research, and comment on traditional pedagogical attitudes in the physics community.

The drive for muscularity in men: media influences and objectification theory.

PubMed

Daniel, Samantha; Bridges, Sara K

2010-01-01

Presently, objectification theory has yielded mixed results when utilized to explain body image concerns in men. An online survey assessing internalization of media ideals, self-objectification, body surveillance, body shame, the drive for muscularity, and body mass index (BMI) was completed by 244 predominantly college-aged males. Path analyses were used to investigate relationships among these variables where it was hypothesized that objectification variables would mediate the relationship between internalization of media ideals and the drive for muscularity. Internalization of media ideals was the strongest predictor of the drive for muscularity, followed by BMI, though variables of objectification theory had no impact on the drive for muscularity contrary to hypotheses. The results suggest that objectification theory may not be applicable to men as it is currently measured. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic characteristics of a two-stage variable-mass flexible missile with internal flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meirovitch, L.; Bankovskis, J.

1972-01-01

A general formulation of the dynamical problems associated with powered flight of a two stage flexible, variable-mass missile with internal flow, discrete masses, and aerodynamic forces is presented. The formulation comprises six ordinary differential equations for the rigid body motion, 3n ordinary differential equations for the n discrete masses and three partial differential equations with the appropriate boundary conditions for the elastic motion. This set of equations is modified to represent a single stage flexible, variable-mass missile with internal flow and aerodynamic forces. The rigid-body motion consists then of three translations and three rotations, whereas the elastic motion is defined by one longitudinal and two flexural displacements, the latter about two orthogonal transverse axes. The differential equations are nonlinear and, in addition, they possess time-dependent coefficients due to the mass variation.

Suicide attempts in children and adolescents: The place of clock genes and early rhythm dysfunction.

PubMed

Olliac, Bertrand; Ouss, Lisa; Charrier, Annaëlle

2016-11-01

Suicide remains one of the leading causes of death among young people, and suicidal ideation and behavior are relatively common in healthy and clinical populations. Suicide risk in childhood and adolescence is often approached from the perspective of nosographic categories to which predictive variables for suicidal acts are often linked. The cascading effects resulting from altered clock genes in a pediatric population could participate in biological rhythm abnormalities and the emergence of suicide attempts through impaired regulation of circadian rhythms and emotional states with neurodevelopmental effects. Also, early trauma and stressful life events can alter the expression of clock genes and contribute to the emergence of suicide attempts. Alteration of clock genes might lead to desynchronized and abnormal circadian rhythms impairing in turn the synchronization between external and internal rhythms and therefore the adaptation of the individual to his/her internal and external environment with the development of psychiatric disorders associated with increased risk for suicide attempts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recommendations for Cardiomyopathy Surveillance for Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Report from the International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group

PubMed Central

Armenian, Saro H.; Hudson, Melissa M.; Mulder, Renee L.; Chen, Ming Hui; Constine, Louis S.; Dwyer, Mary; Nathan, Paul C.; Tissing, Wim J.E.; Shankar, Sadhna; Sieswerda, Elske; Skinner, Rod; Steinberger, Julia; van Dalen, Elvira C.; van der Pal, Helena; Wallace, W. Hamish; Levitt, Gill; Kremer, Leontien C.M.

2015-01-01

Childhood cancer survivors treated with anthracycline chemotherapy or chest radiation are at an increased risk of developing congestive heart failure (CHF). In this population, CHF is well-recognized as a progressive disorder, with a variable period of asymptomatic cardiomyopathy which precedes signs and symptoms. As a result, a number of practice guidelines have been developed to facilitate detection and treatment of asymptomatic cardiomyopathy. These guidelines differ with regards to definitions of at risk populations, surveillance modality and frequency, and recommendations for interventions. These differences may hinder the effective implementation of these recommendations. We report on the results of an international collaboration to harmonize existing cardiomyopathy surveillance recommendations, using an evidence-based approach that relied on standardized definitions for outcomes of interest and transparent presentation of the quality of the evidence. The resultant recommendations were graded according to the quality of the evidence and the potential benefit gained from early detection and intervention. PMID:25752563

Influence of Internal and External Noise on Spontaneous Visuomotor Synchronization.

PubMed

Varlet, Manuel; Schmidt, R C; Richardson, Michael J

2016-01-01

Historically, movement noise or variability is considered to be an undesirable property of biological motor systems. In particular, noise is typically assumed to degrade the emergence and stability of rhythmic motor synchronization. Recently, however, it has been suggested that small levels of noise might actually improve the functioning of motor systems and facilitate their adaptation to environmental events. Here, the authors investigated whether noise can facilitate spontaneous rhythmic visuomotor synchronization. They examined the influence of internal noise in the rhythmic limb movements of participants and external noise in the movement of an oscillating visual stimulus on the occurrence of spontaneous synchronization. By indexing the natural frequency variability of participants and manipulating the frequency variability of the visual stimulus, the authors demonstrated that both internal and external noise degrade synchronization when the participants' and stimulus movement frequencies are similar, but can actually facilitate synchronization when the frequencies are different. Furthermore, the two kinds of noise interact with each other. Internal noise facilitates synchronization only when external noise is minimal and vice versa. Too much internal and external noise together degrades synchronization. These findings open new perspectives for better understanding the role of noise in human rhythmic coordination.

Gene Variants Associated with Antisocial Behaviour: A Latent Variable Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentley, Mary Jane; Lin, Haiqun; Fernandez, Thomas V.; Lee, Maria; Yrigollen, Carolyn M.; Pakstis, Andrew J.; Katsovich, Liliya; Olds, David L.; Grigorenko, Elena L.; Leckman, James F.

2013-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine if a latent variable approach might be useful in identifying shared variance across genetic risk alleles that is associated with antisocial behaviour at age 15 years. Methods: Using a conventional latent variable approach, we derived an antisocial phenotype in 328 adolescents utilizing data from a…

Compact Hybrid Automotive Propulsion System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lupo, G.

1986-01-01

Power train proposed for experimental vehicle powered by internal combustion engine and electric motor. Intended for front-wheel drive automobile, power train mass produced using existing technology. System includes internal-combustion engine, electric motor, continuously variable transmission, torque converter, differential, and control and adjustment systems for electric motor and transmission. Continuously variable transmission integrated into hydraulic system that also handles power steering and power brakes. Batteries for electric motor mounted elsewhere in vehicle.

A Multi-Model Assessment for the 2006 and 2010 Simulations under the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 2 over North America: Part II. Evaluation of Column Variable Predictions Using Satellite Data

EPA Science Inventory

Within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 2 (AQMEII2) project, this part II paper performs a multi-model assessment of major column abundances of gases, radiation, aerosol, and cloud variables for 2006 and 2010 simulations with three on...

Nonlinear waves in solids with slow dynamics: an internal-variable model

PubMed Central

Berjamin, H.; Favrie, N.; Chiavassa, G.

2017-01-01

In heterogeneous solids such as rocks and concrete, the speed of sound diminishes with the strain amplitude of a dynamic loading (softening). This decrease, known as ‘slow dynamics’, occurs at time scales larger than the period of the forcing. Also, hysteresis is observed in the steady-state response. The phenomenological model by Vakhnenko et al. (2004 Phys. Rev. E 70, 015602. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.70.015602)) is based on a variable that describes the softening of the material. However, this model is one dimensional and it is not thermodynamically admissible. In the present article, a three-dimensional model is derived in the framework of the finite-strain theory. An internal variable that describes the softening of the material is introduced, as well as an expression of the specific internal energy. A mechanical constitutive law is deduced from the Clausius–Duhem inequality. Moreover, a family of evolution equations for the internal variable is proposed. Here, an evolution equation with one relaxation time is chosen. By construction, this new model of the continuum is thermodynamically admissible and dissipative (inelastic). In the case of small uniaxial deformations, it is shown analytically that the model reproduces qualitatively the main features of real experiments. PMID:28588408

The Mini Questionnaire of Personal Organization (MQPO): preliminary validation of a new post-rationalist personality questionnaire.

PubMed

Nardi, Bernardo; Arimatea, Emidio; Giovagnoli, Sara; Blasi, Stefano; Bellantuono, Cesario; Rezzonico, Giorgio

2012-01-01

The Mini Questionnaire of Personal Organization (MQPO) has been constructed in order to comply with the inward/outward Personal Meaning Organization's (PMO) theory. According to Nardi's Adaptive Post-Rationalist approach, predictable and invariable caregivers' behaviours allow inward focus and a physical sight of reciprocity; non-predictable and variable caregivers' behaviours allow outward focus and a semantic sight of reciprocity. The 20 items of MQPO have been selected from 29 intermediate (n = 160) and 40 initial items (n = 204). Psychometric validation has been conducted (n = 296), including Internal Validity (Item-Total Correlation; Factor Analysis), Internal Coherence by Factor Analysis, two analyses in Discriminant Validity (n = 132 and n = 80) and Reliability by Test-Retest Analysis (n = 49). All subjects have been given their written informed consent before beginning the test. The validation of the MQPO shows that the ultimate version is consistent with its post-rationalist paradigm. Four different factors have been found, one for each PMO. Validity of the construct and the internal reliability index are satisfying (Alpha = 0.73). Moreover, the results obtained are constant (from r = 0.80 to r = 0.89). There is an adequate agreement between the MQPO scales and the clinical evaluations (72.5%), as well as an excellent agreement (80.0%) between the scores of the MQPO and those of the Personal Meaning Questionnaire. The MQPO is a tool able to study personality as a process by focusing on the relationships between personality and developmental process axes, which are the bases of the PMO's theory, according to the APR approach. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Travellers' diarrhoea-a survey of practice.

PubMed

McGrath, Christian M; Leder, Karin

2017-03-01

Travellers' diarrhoea (TD) is a common problem, affecting millions of tourists each year and creating a large economic burden. Risk factors for TD are known and guidelines exist to assist practitioners in advising travellers on how to prevent and treat TD. However, data are lacking regarding actual prescribing practices or approaches used in TD management. This study aims to establish a baseline which identifies uniformities and diversities in practice. An online survey created using the SurveyMonkey tool was developed to test respondent approaches to TD pre-travel management. An invitation to participate in the survey was distributed early 2016 through selected Australian and New Zealand speciality travel medicine centres and through the electronic mailing list of the International Society of Travel Medicine (ISTM). Descriptive statistics and analyses using Chi Square analysis and two-sided Fishers exact tests for significance were used. Three hundred and sixty-four completed or partially completed surveys were collected from respondents in 23 countries. Approach to TD, antibiotic choice and management of four different clinical scenarios were assessed, with analyses focused on identifying significant differences in approach according to region of practice, professional background and level of experience. The responses to the clinical scenarios suggest most uniformity in recommended treatment strategies in clearly mild or severe disease, and greater variability in moderate disease. There is practice diversity in the discussion of preventative techniques and prescribing of self-treatment medications for TD, especially for moderate TD disease. Evidence-based guidelines that address the competing issues of patient health and morbidity vs the risk of colonization with resistant organisms may lead to more consistent antibiotic prescribing practices. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Internally Generated and Externally Forced Multidecadal Oceanic Modes and their Influence on the Summer Rainfall over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Si, D.; Hu, A.

2017-12-01

The interdecadal oceanic variabilities can be generated from both internal and external processes, and these variabilities can significantly modulate our climate on global and regional scale, such as the warming slowdown in the early 21st century, and the rainfall in East Asia. By analyzing simulations from a unique Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (CESM_LE) project, we show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is primarily an internally generated oceanic variability, while the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) may be an oceanic variability generated by internal oceanic processes and modulated by external forcings in the 20th century. Although the observed relationship between IPO and the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YHRV) summer rainfall in China is well simulated in both the preindustrial control and 20th century ensemble, none of the 20th century ensemble members can reproduce the observed time evolution of both IPO and YHRV due to the unpredictable nature of IPO on multidecade timescale. On the other hand, although CESM_LE cannot reproduce the observed relationship between AMO and Huanghe River valley (HRV) summer rainfall of China in the preindustrial control simulation, this relationship in the 20th century simulations is well reproduced, and the chance to reproduce the observed time evolution of both AMO and HRV rainfall is about 30%, indicating the important role of the interaction between the internal processes and the external forcing to realistically simulate the AMO and HRV rainfall.

Evaluating Individual Students' Perceptions of Instructional Quality: An Investigation of their Factor Structure, Measurement Invariance, and Relations to Educational Outcomes

PubMed Central

Scherer, Ronny; Nilsen, Trude; Jansen, Malte

2016-01-01

Students' perceptions of instructional quality are among the most important criteria for evaluating teaching effectiveness. The present study evaluates different latent variable modeling approaches (confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory structural equation modeling, and bifactor modeling), which are used to describe these individual perceptions with respect to their factor structure, measurement invariance, and the relations to selected educational outcomes (achievement, self-concept, and motivation in mathematics). On the basis of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2012 large-scale data sets of Australia, Canada, and the USA (N = 26,746 students), we find support for the distinction between three factors of individual students' perceptions and full measurement invariance across countries for all modeling approaches. In this regard, bifactor exploratory structural equation modeling outperformed alternative approaches with respect to model fit. Our findings reveal significant relations to the educational outcomes. This study synthesizes different modeling approaches of individual students' perceptions of instructional quality and provides insights into the nature of these perceptions from an individual differences perspective. Implications for the measurement and modeling of individually perceived instructional quality are discussed. PMID:26903917

Objective classification of ecological status in marine water bodies using ecotoxicological information and multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Beiras, Ricardo; Durán, Iria

2014-12-01

Some relevant shortcomings have been identified in the current approach for the classification of ecological status in marine water bodies, leading to delays in the fulfillment of the Water Framework Directive objectives. Natural variability makes difficult to settle fixed reference values and boundary values for the Ecological Quality Ratios (EQR) for the biological quality elements. Biological responses to environmental degradation are frequently of nonmonotonic nature, hampering the EQR approach. Community structure traits respond only once ecological damage has already been done and do not provide early warning signals. An alternative methodology for the classification of ecological status integrating chemical measurements, ecotoxicological bioassays and community structure traits (species richness and diversity), and using multivariate analyses (multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis), is proposed. This approach does not depend on the arbitrary definition of fixed reference values and EQR boundary values, and it is suitable to integrate nonlinear, sensitive signals of ecological degradation. As a disadvantage, this approach demands the inclusion of sampling sites representing the full range of ecological status in each monitoring campaign. National or international agencies in charge of coastal pollution monitoring have comprehensive data sets available to overcome this limitation.

Echocardiographic agreement in the diagnostic evaluation for infective endocarditis.

PubMed

Lauridsen, Trine Kiilerich; Selton-Suty, Christine; Tong, Steven; Afonso, Luis; Cecchi, Enrico; Park, Lawrence; Yow, Eric; Barnhart, Huiman X; Paré, Carlos; Samad, Zainab; Levine, Donald; Peterson, Gail; Stancoven, Amy Butler; Johansson, Magnus Carl; Dickerman, Stuart; Tamin, Syahidah; Habib, Gilbert; Douglas, Pamela S; Bruun, Niels Eske; Crowley, Anna Lisa

2016-07-01

Echocardiography is essential for the diagnosis and management of infective endocarditis (IE). However, the reproducibility for the echocardiographic assessment of variables relevant to IE is unknown. Objectives of this study were: (1) To define the reproducibility for IE echocardiographic variables and (2) to describe a methodology for assessing quality in an observational cohort containing site-interpreted data. IE reproducibility was assessed on a subset of echocardiograms from subjects enrolled in the International Collaboration on Endocarditis registry. Specific echocardiographic case report forms were used. Intra-observer agreement was assessed from six site readers on ten randomly selected echocardiograms. Inter-observer agreement between sites and an echocardiography core laboratory was assessed on a separate random sample of 110 echocardiograms. Agreement was determined using intraclass correlation (ICC), coverage probability (CP), and limits of agreement for continuous variables and kappa statistics (κweighted) and CP for categorical variables. Intra-observer agreement for LVEF was excellent [ICC = 0.93 ± 0.1 and all pairwise differences for LVEF (CP) were within 10 %]. For IE categorical echocardiographic variables, intra-observer agreement was best for aortic abscess (κweighted = 1.0, CP = 1.0 for all readers). Highest inter-observer agreement for IE categorical echocardiographic variables was obtained for vegetation location (κweighted = 0.95; 95 % CI 0.92-0.99) and lowest agreement was found for vegetation mobility (κweighted = 0.69; 95 % CI 0.62-0.86). Moderate to excellent intra- and inter-observer agreement is observed for echocardiographic variables in the diagnostic assessment of IE. A pragmatic approach for determining echocardiographic data reproducibility in a large, multicentre, site interpreted observational cohort is feasible.

Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

PubMed

Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

2016-06-01

Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

TIMSS 2011 User Guide for the International Database. Supplement 2: National Adaptations of International Background Questionnaires

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foy, Pierre, Ed.; Arora, Alka, Ed.; Stanco, Gabrielle M., Ed.

2013-01-01

This supplement describes national adaptations made to the international version of the TIMSS 2011 background questionnaires. This information provides users with a guide to evaluate the availability of internationally comparable data for use in secondary analyses involving the TIMSS 2011 background variables. Background questionnaire adaptations…

Forced Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halloran, P. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Hall, I. R.

2016-02-01

Paul R. Halloran, David J. Reynolds, Ian R. Hall and James D. Scourse Multidecadal variability in Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) plays a first order role in determining regional atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, with major climatic consequences. These regional climate impacts range from drought in the Sahel and South America, though increased hurricane activity and temperature extremes, to modified monsoonal rainfall. Multidecadal Atlantic SST variability could arise through internal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (e.g., Knight et al., 2006), or through externally forced change (e.g. Booth et al., 2012). It is critical that we know whether internal or external forcing dominates if we are to provide useful near-term climate projections in the Atlantic region. A persuasive argument that internal variability plays an important role in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is that periodic SST variability has been observed throughout much of the last millennium (Mann et al., 2009), and the hypothesized external forcing of historical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (Booth et al., 2012) is largely anthropogenic in origin. Here we combine the first annually-resolved millennial marine reconstruction with multi-model analysis, to show that the Atlantic SST variability of the last millennium can be explained by a combination of direct volcanic forcing, and indirect, forced, AMOC variability. Our results indicate that whilst climate models capture the timing of both the directly forced SST and forced AMOC-mediated SST variability, the models fail to capture the magnitude of the forced AMOC change. Does this mean that models underestimate the 21st century reduction in AMOC strength? J. Knight, C. Folland and A. Scaife., Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, GRL, 2006 B.B.B Booth, N. Dunstone, P.R. Halloran et al., Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 2012 M.E. Mann, Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science, 2009

Preliminary study on 2 colour patterns in Ochlerotatus caspius (Pallas, 1771) (Diptera, Culicidae).

PubMed

Toma, Luciano; Severini, Francesco; Romi, Roberto; Di Luca, Marco

2016-08-30

Ochlerotatus caspius is a mosquito of medical and veterinary relevance both for its synanthropy and for its potential role in transmission of viruses and nematodes in the areas that it inhabits. Due to its wide range and the marked variability in the adult colour pattern, some authors have recognized Ochlerotatus caspius as a complex of species. In this study, we purposed to evaluate the possible taxonomic heterogeneity between 2 chromatic forms by using both morphological and molecular approaches. The preliminary results based on the identity of the rRNA internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS-2) lead us to believe the 2 forms as a single species with a chromatic polymorphism.

Developing an International Distance Education Program: A Blended Learning Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mathur, Ravisha; Oliver, Lisa

2007-01-01

Building a dynamic international distance education program can be a complex operation. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a model for global learning that utilizes a blended learning approach. This paper will describe how a blended learning approach was implemented in an international instructional technology Master's program to the benefit…

The dynamic interaction between combustible renewables and waste consumption and international tourism: the case of Tunisia.

PubMed

Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim; Apergis, Nicholas

2015-08-01

This paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds methodological approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth, combustible renewables and waste consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and international tourism for the case of Tunisia spanning the period 1990-2010. The results from the Fisher statistic of both the Wald test and the Johansen test confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables under investigation. The stability of estimated parameters has been tested, while Granger causality tests recommend a short-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to CO2 emissions, a bidirectional causality between economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption and unidirectional causality running from economic growth and combustible renewables and waste consumption to international tourism. In the long-run, the error correction terms confirm the presence of bidirectional causality relationships between economic growth, CO2 emissions, combustible renewables and waste consumption, and international tourism. Our long-run estimates show that combustible renewables and waste consumption increases international tourism, and both renewables and waste consumption and international tourism increase CO2 emissions and output. We recommend that (i) Tunisia should use more combustible renewables and waste energy as this eliminates wastes from touristic zones and increases the number of tourist arrivals, leading to economic growth, and (ii) a fraction of this economic growth generated by the increase in combustible renewables and waste consumption should be invested in clean renewable energy production (i.e., solar, wind, geothermal) and energy efficiency projects.

Comparative study of feature selection with ensemble learning using SOM variants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filali, Ameni; Jlassi, Chiraz; Arous, Najet

2017-03-01

Ensemble learning has succeeded in the growth of stability and clustering accuracy, but their runtime prohibits them from scaling up to real-world applications. This study deals the problem of selecting a subset of the most pertinent features for every cluster from a dataset. The proposed method is another extension of the Random Forests approach using self-organizing maps (SOM) variants to unlabeled data that estimates the out-of-bag feature importance from a set of partitions. Every partition is created using a various bootstrap sample and a random subset of the features. Then, we show that the process internal estimates are used to measure variable pertinence in Random Forests are also applicable to feature selection in unsupervised learning. This approach aims to the dimensionality reduction, visualization and cluster characterization at the same time. Hence, we provide empirical results on nineteen benchmark data sets indicating that RFS can lead to significant improvement in terms of clustering accuracy, over several state-of-the-art unsupervised methods, with a very limited subset of features. The approach proves promise to treat with very broad domains.

Internal fetal monitoring (image)

MedlinePlus

Internal fetal monitoring involves placing a electrode directly on the fetal scalp through the cervix. This test is performed to evaluate fetal heart rate and variability between beats, especially ...

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.

Lapses, infidelities, and creative adaptations: lessons from evaluation of a participatory market development approach in the Andes.

PubMed

Horton, Douglas; Rotondo, Emma; Paz Ybarnegaray, Rodrigo; Hareau, Guy; Devaux, André; Thiele, Graham

2013-08-01

Participatory approaches are frequently recommended for international development programs, but few have been evaluated. From 2007 to 2010 the Andean Change Alliance evaluated an agricultural research and development approach known as the "Participatory Market Chain Approach" (PMCA). Based on a study of four cases, this paper examines the fidelity of implementation, the factors that influenced implementation and results, and the PMCA change model. We identify three types of deviation from the intervention protocol (lapses, creative adaptations, and true infidelities) and five groups of variables that influenced PMCA implementation and results (attributes of the macro context, the market chain, the key actors, rules in use, and the capacity development strategy). There was insufficient information to test the validity of the PMCA change model, but results were greatest where the PMCA was implemented with highest fidelity. Our analysis suggests that the single most critical component of the PMCA is engagement of market agents - not just farmers - throughout the exercise. We present four lessons for planning and evaluating participatory approaches related to the use of action and change models, the importance of monitoring implementation fidelity, the limits of baseline survey data for outcome evaluation, and the importance of capacity development for implementers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Priori Analysis of a Compressible Flamelet Model using RANS Data for a Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quinlan, Jesse R.; Drozda, Tomasz G.; McDaniel, James C.; Lacaze, Guilhem; Oefelein, Joseph

2015-01-01

In an effort to make large eddy simulation of hydrocarbon-fueled scramjet combustors more computationally accessible using realistic chemical reaction mechanisms, a compressible flamelet/progress variable (FPV) model was proposed that extends current FPV model formulations to high-speed, compressible flows. Development of this model relied on observations garnered from an a priori analysis of the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) data obtained for the Hypersonic International Flight Research and Experimentation (HI-FiRE) dual-mode scramjet combustor. The RANS data were obtained using a reduced chemical mechanism for the combustion of a JP-7 surrogate and were validated using avail- able experimental data. These RANS data were then post-processed to obtain, in an a priori fashion, the scalar fields corresponding to an FPV-based modeling approach. In the current work, in addition to the proposed compressible flamelet model, a standard incompressible FPV model was also considered. Several candidate progress variables were investigated for their ability to recover static temperature and major and minor product species. The effects of pressure and temperature on the tabulated progress variable source term were characterized, and model coupling terms embedded in the Reynolds- averaged Navier-Stokes equations were studied. Finally, results for the novel compressible flamelet/progress variable model were presented to demonstrate the improvement attained by modeling the effects of pressure and flamelet boundary conditions on the combustion.

Internal cycling, not external loading, decides the nutrient limitation in eutrophic lake: A dynamic model with temporal Bayesian hierarchical inference.

PubMed

Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng

2017-06-01

Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of duty cycle workflow on sign-out practices: a qualitative study of an internal medicine residency program in Maryland, USA

PubMed Central

Lee, Soo-Hoon; Desai, Sanjay V

2017-01-01

Objectives Although JCAHO requires a standardised approach to handoffs, and while many standardised protocols have been tested, sign-out practices continue to vary. We believe this is due to the variability in workflow during inpatient duty cycle. We investigate the impact of such workflows on intern sign-out practices. Design We employed a prospective, grounded theory mixed-method design. Setting The study was conducted at a residency programme in the mid-Atlantic USA. Two observers randomly evaluated three types of daily sign-outs for 1 week every 3 months from September 2013 to March 2014. The compliance of each observed behaviour to JCAHO’s Handoff Communication Checklist was recorded. Participants Thirty one interns conducting 134 patient sign-outs were observed randomly among the 52 in the programme. Results In the 06:00 to 07:00 sign-back, the night-cover focused on providing information on overnight events to the day interns. In the 11:00 to 12:00 sign-out, the night-cover focused on transferring task accountability to a day-cover intern before departure. In the 20:00 to 21:00 sign-out, the day interns focused on transferring responsibility of their patients to a night-cover. Conclusion Different sign-out periods had different emphases regarding information exchange, personal responsibility and task accountability. Sign-outs are context-specific, implying that across-the-board standardised sign-out protocols are likely to have limited efficacy and compliance. Standardisation may need to be relative to the specific type and purpose of each sign-out to be supported by interns. PMID:28487461

A novel in vivo method for isolating antibodies from a phage display library by neuronal retrograde transport selectively yields antibodies against p75(NTR.).

PubMed

Tani, Hiroaki; Osbourn, Jane K; Walker, Edward H; Rush, Robert A; Ferguson, Ian A

2013-01-01

The neurotrophin receptor p75(NTR) is utilized by a variety of pathogens to gain entry into the central nervous system (CNS). We tested if this entry portal might be exploited using a phage display library to isolate internalizing antibodies that target the CNS in vivo. By applying a phage library that expressed human single chain variable fragment (scFv) antibodies on their surface to a transected sciatic nerve, we showed that (1) phage conjugated to anti-p75(NTR) antibody or phage scFv library pre-panned against p75(NTR) are internalized by neurons expressing p75(NTR); (2) subsequent retrograde axonal transport separates internalized phage from the applied phage; and, (3) internalized phage can be recovered from a proximal ligature made on a nerve. This approach resulted in 13-fold increase in the number of phage isolated from the injured nerve compared with the starting population, and isolation of 18 unique internalizing p75(NTR) antibodies that were transported from the peripheral nerve into the spinal cord, through the blood-brain barrier. In addition, antibodies recognizing other potentially internalized antigens were identified through in vivo selection using a fully diverse library. Because p75(NTR) expression is upregulated in motor neurons in response to injury and in disease, the p75(NTR) antibodies may have substantial potential for cell-targeted drug/gene delivery. In addition, this novel selection method provides the potential to generate panels of antibodies that could be used to identify further internalization targets, which could aid drug delivery across the blood-brain barrier.

Description of the case mix experienced by chiropractic students during a clinical internship.

PubMed

Puhl, Aaron A; Reinhart, Christine J; Injeyan, H Stephen; Tibbles, Anthony

2017-10-01

The primary objective of this study was to describe the case mix experienced by chiropractic students during their clinical internship at the Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College. Secondary objectives were to characterize teaching clinic patient populations, assess the similarity to previously published data for practicing chiropractors, and describe the treatment plans being recommended by interns. A prospective, observational study was conducted using a convenience sample of 24 chiropractic interns. Data were collected by interns using a standardized form that was completed for each new patient and each new complaint examined during the 1-year internship. Standardized forms included data regarding patient demographics, complaint characteristics, and treatment recommendations. Data were included for 23 of 24 participating interns, who described 828 patients and a total of 948 unique complaint presentations. Overall, 60% of patients were female, 86% were 18 to 64 years old, and 23% were naive to chiropractic care. Of all presenting complaints, 93% were pain-based, 67% were chronic, 65% included spinal complaints, and 7% presented with red flags; individual interns' experiences were variable and are described. On average, treatment recommendations called for 9.4 visits and often included multimodal treatment approaches, most commonly soft-tissue therapies (91%), home-based active care (84%), and spine manipulation (70%). The findings of this study suggest that patients presenting to CMCC teaching clinics are similar to those reported previously to attend private chiropractic clinics. While all participating interns encountered multiple complex clinical cases, very few had experience with pediatric populations. This study adds to the few that detail the characteristics of patients attending chiropractic teaching clinics; to our knowledge it is the first to describe average case loads of chiropractic interns.

A novel in vivo method for isolating antibodies from a phage display library by neuronal retrograde transport selectively yields antibodies against p75NTR

PubMed Central

Tani, Hiroaki; Osbourn, Jane K.; Walker, Edward H.; Rush, Robert A.; Ferguson, Ian A.

2013-01-01

The neurotrophin receptor p75NTR is utilized by a variety of pathogens to gain entry into the central nervous system (CNS). We tested if this entry portal might be exploited using a phage display library to isolate internalizing antibodies that target the CNS in vivo. By applying a phage library that expressed human single chain variable fragment (scFv) antibodies on their surface to a transected sciatic nerve, we showed that (1) phage conjugated to anti-p75NTR antibody or phage scFv library pre-panned against p75NTR are internalized by neurons expressing p75NTR; (2) subsequent retrograde axonal transport separates internalized phage from the applied phage; and, (3) internalized phage can be recovered from a proximal ligature made on a nerve. This approach resulted in 13-fold increase in the number of phage isolated from the injured nerve compared with the starting population, and isolation of 18 unique internalizing p75NTR antibodies that were transported from the peripheral nerve into the spinal cord, through the blood-brain barrier. In addition, antibodies recognizing other potentially internalized antigens were identified through in vivo selection using a fully diverse library. Because p75NTR expression is upregulated in motor neurons in response to injury and in disease, the p75NTR antibodies may have substantial potential for cell-targeted drug/gene delivery. In addition, this novel selection method provides the potential to generate panels of antibodies that could be used to identify further internalization targets, which could aid drug delivery across the blood-brain barrier. PMID:23549155

ENSO-related Interannual Variability of Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation: Assessment and Projected Changes in CMIP5 Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu; Sisson, Janice

2013-04-01

ENSO variability is an important driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) atmospheric circulation. Understanding the observed and projected changes in ENSO variability is therefore important to understanding changes in Australian surface climate. Using a recently developed methodology (Zheng et al., 2009), the coherent patterns, or modes, of ENSO-related variability in the SH atmospheric circulation can be separated from modes that are related to intraseasonal variability or to changes in radiative forcings. Under this methodology, the seasonal mean SH 500 hPa geopotential height is considered to consist of three components. These are: (1) an intraseasonal component related to internal dynamics on intraseasonal time scales; (2) a slow-internal component related to internal dynamics on slowly varying (interannual or longer) time scales, including ENSO; and (3) a slow-external component related to external (i.e. radiative) forcings. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to represent the modes of variability of the interannual covariance of the three components. An assessment is first made of the modes in models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset for the SH summer and winter seasons in the 20th century. In reanalysis data, two EOFs of the slow component (which includes the slow-internal and slow-external components) have been found to be related to ENSO variability (Frederiksen and Zheng, 2007). In SH summer, the CMIP5 models reproduce the leading ENSO mode very well when the structures of the EOF and the associated SST, and associated variance are considered. There is substantial improvement in this mode when compared with the CMIP3 models shown in Grainger et al. (2012). However, the second ENSO mode in SH summer has a poorly reproduced EOF structure in the CMIP5 models, and the associated variance is generally underestimated. In SH winter, the performance of the CMIP5 models in reproducing the structure and variance is similar for both ENSO modes, with the associated variance being generally underestimated. Projected changes in the modes in the 21st century are then investigated using ensembles of CMIP5 models that reproduce well the 20th century slow modes. The slow-internal and slow-external components are examined separately, allowing the projected changes in the response to ENSO variability to be separated from the response to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. By using several ensembles, the model-dependency of the projected changes in the ENSO-related slow-internal modes is examined. Frederiksen, C. S., and X. Zheng, 2007: Variability of seasonal-mean fields arising from intraseasonal variability. Part 3: Application to SH winter and summer circulations. Climate Dyn., 28, 849-866. Grainger, S., C. S. Frederiksen, and X. Zheng, 2012: Modes of interannual variability of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in CMIP3 models: Assessment and Projections. Climate Dyn., in press. Zheng, X., D. M. Straus, C. S. Frederiksen, and S. Grainger, 2009: Potentially predictable patterns of extratropical tropospheric circulation in an ensemble of climate simulations with the COLA AGCM. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1816-1829.

A review of covariate selection for non-experimental comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Sauer, Brian C; Brookhart, M Alan; Roy, Jason; VanderWeele, Tyler

2013-11-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, whereas adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason, variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely known. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher's knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Review of Covariate Selection for Nonexperimental Comparative Effectiveness Research

PubMed Central

Sauer, Brian C.; Brookhart, Alan; Roy, Jason; Vanderweele, Tyler

2014-01-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research (CER), and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for on a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, while adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely know. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses the high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher’s knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically-derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. PMID:24006330

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

2018-03-01

Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

Documentation and verification of VST2D; a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heat-solute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2001-01-01

This report describes a model for simulating transient, Variably Saturated, coupled water-heatsolute Transport in heterogeneous, anisotropic, 2-Dimensional, ground-water systems with variable fluid density (VST2D). VST2D was developed to help understand the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on quantity and quality of variably saturated ground-water systems. The model solves simultaneously for one or more dependent variables (pressure, temperature, and concentration) at nodes in a horizontal or vertical mesh using a quasi-linearized general minimum residual method. This approach enhances computational speed beyond the speed of a sequential approach. Heterogeneous and anisotropic conditions are implemented locally using individual element property descriptions. This implementation allows local principal directions to differ among elements and from the global solution domain coordinates. Boundary conditions can include time-varying pressure head (or moisture content), heat, and/or concentration; fluxes distributed along domain boundaries and/or at internal node points; and/or convective moisture, heat, and solute fluxes along the domain boundaries; and/or unit hydraulic gradient along domain boundaries. Other model features include temperature and concentration dependent density (liquid and vapor) and viscosity, sorption and/or decay of a solute, and capability to determine moisture content beyond residual to zero. These features are described in the documentation together with development of the governing equations, application of the finite-element formulation (using the Galerkin approach), solution procedure, mass and energy balance considerations, input requirements, and output options. The VST2D model was verified, and results included solutions for problems of water transport under isohaline and isothermal conditions, heat transport under isobaric and isohaline conditions, solute transport under isobaric and isothermal conditions, and coupled water-heat-solute transport. The first three problems considered in model verification were compared to either analytical or numerical solutions, whereas the coupled problem was compared to measured laboratory results for which no known analytic solutions or numerical models are available. The test results indicate the model is accurate and applicable for a wide range of conditions, including when water (liquid and vapor), heat (sensible and latent), and solute are coupled in ground-water systems. The cumulative residual errors for the coupled problem tested was less than 10-8 cubic centimeter per cubic centimeter, 10-5 moles per kilogram, and 102 calories per cubic meter for liquid water content, solute concentration and heat content, respectively. This model should be useful to hydrologists, engineers, and researchers interested in studying coupled processes associated with variably saturated transport in ground-water systems.

Lagrange thermodynamic potential and intrinsic variables for He-3 He-4 dilute solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, H. W.

1983-01-01

For a two-fluid model of dilute solutions of He-3 in liquid He-4, a thermodynamic potential is constructed that provides a Lagrangian for deriving equations of motion by a variational procedure. This Lagrangian is defined for uniform velocity fields as a (negative) Legendre transform of total internal energy, and its primary independent variables, together with their thermodynamic conjugates, are identified. Here, similarities between relations in classical physics and quantum statistical mechanics serve as a guide for developing an alternate expression for this function that reveals its character as the difference between apparent kinetic energy and intrinsic internal energy. When the He-3 concentration in the mixtures tends to zero, this expression reduces to Zilsel's formula for the Lagrangian for pure liquid He-4. An investigation of properties of the intrinsic internal energy leads to the introduction of intrinsic chemical potentials along with other intrinsic variables for the mixtures. Explicit formulas for these variables are derived for a noninteracting elementary excitation model of the fluid. Using these formulas and others also derived from quantum statistical mechanics, another equivalent expression for the Lagrangian is generated.

Long-term Internal Variability of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

2016-04-01

The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. Further, such variability strengthens in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, which may further hinder detection of anthropogenic climate signals in that region.

Accelerated warming of the Southern Ocean and its impacts on the hydrological cycle and sea ice.

PubMed

Liu, Jiping; Curry, Judith A

2010-08-24

The observed sea surface temperature in the Southern Ocean shows a substantial warming trend for the second half of the 20th century. Associated with the warming, there has been an enhanced atmospheric hydrological cycle in the Southern Ocean that results in an increase of the Antarctic sea ice for the past three decades through the reduced upward ocean heat transport and increased snowfall. The simulated sea surface temperature variability from two global coupled climate models for the second half of the 20th century is dominated by natural internal variability associated with the Antarctic Oscillation, suggesting that the models' internal variability is too strong, leading to a response to anthropogenic forcing that is too weak. With increased loading of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere through the 21st century, the models show an accelerated warming in the Southern Ocean, and indicate that anthropogenic forcing exceeds natural internal variability. The increased heating from below (ocean) and above (atmosphere) and increased liquid precipitation associated with the enhanced hydrological cycle results in a projected decline of the Antarctic sea ice.

[Anthropometric study and evaluation of the nutritional status of a population school children in Granada; comparison of national and international reference standards].

PubMed

González Jiménez, E; Aguilar Cordero, M J; Álvarez Ferre, J; Padilla López, C; Valenza, M C

2012-01-01

Recent studies show an alarming increase in levels of overweight and obesity among children and adolescents. The main objectives of this research were the following: (i) to carry out an anthropometric evaluation of the nutritional status and body composition of school children in the city and province of Granada; (ii) to compare the nutritional status of this population sample with national and international reference standards. The results obtained in this study showed that the general prevalence of overweight in both sexes was 22.03% and that 9.12% of the children were obese. Statistically significant differences were found between the variable, weight for age and sex (p < 0.05) and the variable, height for age and sex (p < 0.05). Regarding the body mass index, no statistically significant differences were found for the variable, sex (p = 0.182). This contrasted with the variable, age, which did show statistically significant differences (p < 0.05). As a conclusion, the results of our study highlighted the fact that these anthropometric values were much higher than national and international reference standards.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Execution of Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Approaches on Common Test Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balling, R. J.; Wilkinson, C. A.

1997-01-01

A class of synthetic problems for testing multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) approaches is presented. These test problems are easy to reproduce because all functions are given as closed-form mathematical expressions. They are constructed in such a way that the optimal value of all variables and the objective is unity. The test problems involve three disciplines and allow the user to specify the number of design variables, state variables, coupling functions, design constraints, controlling design constraints, and the strength of coupling. Several MDO approaches were executed on two sample synthetic test problems. These approaches included single-level optimization approaches, collaborative optimization approaches, and concurrent subspace optimization approaches. Execution results are presented, and the robustness and efficiency of these approaches an evaluated for these sample problems.

Understanding the Coping Strategies of International Students: A Qualitative Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khawaja, Nigar G.; Stallman, Helen M.

2011-01-01

International students encounter a range of additional challenges as a part of their tertiary study experience. A qualitative approach was used to understand the challenges faced by international students, coping strategies that promoted their personal resilience and advice they have for future international students. Twenty-two international…

An Assessment of Team Development at the Air Force Flight Dynamics Laboratory.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-09-01

FLIGHT DYNAMICS LABORATORY S. PERFORMING OG. REPORT NUMGER 7. AUTHOR(*) S. CONTRACT ON GRANT NUMBER(s) illiam D. Rutley, Captain, USAF _. PERFORMING ...the change from 1978 to 1980 on eleven criterion variables, employee job satisfaction, job motivation and absenteeism ; five organizational climate...variables except absenteeism . Absenteeism data were obtained from AFFDL intern~al records. The four main pro- duct divisions of AFlDL se.-ve-i as subjects

An internal variable constitutive model for the large deformation of metals at high temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Stuart; Anand, Lallit

1988-01-01

The advent of large deformation finite element methodologies is beginning to permit the numerical simulation of hot working processes whose design until recently has been based on prior industrial experience. Proper application of such finite element techniques requires realistic constitutive equations which more accurately model material behavior during hot working. A simple constitutive model for hot working is the single scalar internal variable model for isotropic thermal elastoplasticity proposed by Anand. The model is recalled and the specific scalar functions, for the equivalent plastic strain rate and the evolution equation for the internal variable, presented are slight modifications of those proposed by Anand. The modified functions are better able to represent high temperature material behavior. The monotonic constant true strain rate and strain rate jump compression experiments on a 2 percent silicon iron is briefly described. The model is implemented in the general purpose finite element program ABAQUS.

Variable-Internal-Stores models of microbial growth and metabolism with dynamic allocation of cellular resources.

PubMed

Nev, Olga A; van den Berg, Hugo A

2017-01-01

Variable-Internal-Stores models of microbial metabolism and growth have proven to be invaluable in accounting for changes in cellular composition as microbial cells adapt to varying conditions of nutrient availability. Here, such a model is extended with explicit allocation of molecular building blocks among various types of catalytic machinery. Such an extension allows a reconstruction of the regulatory rules employed by the cell as it adapts its physiology to changing environmental conditions. Moreover, the extension proposed here creates a link between classic models of microbial growth and analyses based on detailed transcriptomics and proteomics data sets. We ascertain the compatibility between the extended Variable-Internal-Stores model and the classic models, demonstrate its behaviour by means of simulations, and provide a detailed treatment of the uniqueness and the stability of its equilibrium point as a function of the availabilities of the various nutrients.

A Viscoelastic Hybrid Shell Finite Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Arthur

1999-01-01

An elastic large displacement thick-shell hybrid finite element is modified to allow for the calculation of viscoelastic stresses. Internal strain variables are introduced at he element's stress nodes and are employed to construct a viscous material model. First order ordinary differential equations relate the internal strain variables to the corresponding elastic strains at the stress nodes. The viscous stresses are computed from the internal strain variables using viscous moduli which are a fraction of the elastic moduli. The energy dissipated by the action of the viscous stresses in included in the mixed variational functional. Nonlinear quasi-static viscous equilibrium equations are then obtained. Previously developed Taylor expansions of the equilibrium equations are modified to include the viscous terms. A predictor-corrector time marching solution algorithm is employed to solve the algebraic-differential equations. The viscous shell element is employed to numerically simulate a stair-step loading and unloading of an aircraft tire in contact with a frictionless surface.

AAVSO and the International Year of Light (Poster abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, K.

2015-06-01

(Abstract only) The United Nations General Assembly has officially designated 2015 to be the International Year of Light (IYL). Modeled in part on the earlier International Year of Astronomy (IYA), this cross-disciplinary, international educational and outreach project will celebrate the importance of light in science, technology, cultural heritage, and the arts. It ties in with several important anniversaries, such as the 1000th anniversary of the publication of Ibn Al Haythem's “Book of Optics,” the 150th anniversary of Maxwell's equations of electromagnetism, the centenary of Einstein's General Theory of Relativity, and the 50th anniversary of the discovery of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation. Because variable stars are defined as such due to the variability of the light we observe from them, all of the AAVSO programs, regardless of type of variable or instrumentation (eye, DSLR, PEP, or CCD) have natural tie-ins to the study of light. This poster will highlight a number of specific ways that AAVSO members and the organization as a whole can become intimately involved with this unique outreach opportunity.

Internalized stigma among psychiatric outpatients: Associations with quality of life, functioning, hope and self-esteem.

PubMed

Picco, Louisa; Pang, Shirlene; Lau, Ying Wen; Jeyagurunathan, Anitha; Satghare, Pratika; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi Ajit; Lim, Susan; Poh, Chee Lien; Chong, Siow Ann; Subramaniam, Mythily

2016-12-30

This study aimed to: (i) determine the prevalence, socio-demographic and clinical correlates of internalized stigma and (ii) explore the association between internalized stigma and quality of life, general functioning, hope and self-esteem, among a multi-ethnic Asian population of patients with mental disorders. This cross-sectional, survey recruited adult patients (n=280) who were seeking treatment at outpatient and affiliated clinics of the only tertiary psychiatric hospital in Singapore. Internalized stigma was measured using the Internalized Stigma of Mental Illness scale. 43.6% experienced moderate to high internalized stigma. After making adjustments in multiple logistic regression analysis, results revealed there were no significant socio-demographic or clinical correlates relating to internalized stigma. Individual logistic regression models found a negative relationship between quality of life, self-esteem, general functioning and internalized stigma whereby lower scores were associated with higher internalized stigma. In the final regression model, which included all psychosocial variables together, self-esteem was the only variable significantly and negatively associated with internalized stigma. The results of this study contribute to our understanding of the role internalized stigma plays in patients with mental illness, and the impact it can have on psychosocial aspects of their lives. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variations in mango colour, acidity, and sweetness in relation to temperature and ethylene gradients within the fruit.

PubMed

Nordey, Thibault; Léchaudel, Mathieu; Génard, Michel; Joas, Jacques

2014-11-01

Managing fruit quality is complex because many different attributes have to be taken into account, which are themselves subjected to spatial and temporal variations. Heterogeneous fruit quality has been assumed to be partly related to temperature and maturity gradients within the fruit. To test this assumption, we measured the spatial variability of certain mango fruit quality traits: colour of the peel and of the flesh, and sourness and sweetness, at different stages of fruit maturity using destructive methods as well as vis-NIR reflectance. The spatial variability of mango quality traits was compared to internal variations in thermal time, simulated by a physical model, and to internal variations in maturity, using ethylene content as an indicator. All the fruit quality indicators analysed showed significant spatial and temporal variations, regardless of the measurement method used. The heterogeneity of internal fruit quality traits was not correlated with the marked internal temperature gradient we modelled. However, variations in ethylene content revealed a strong internal maturity gradient which was correlated with the spatial variations in measured mango quality traits. Nonetheless, alone, the internal maturity gradient did not explain the variability of fruit quality traits, suggesting that other factors, such as gas, abscisic acid and water gradients, are also involved. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

International perspectives on sharing clinical data with patients.

PubMed

Prey, Jennifer E; Polubriaginof, Fernanda; Kuperman, Gilad J; Tiase, Victoria; Collins, Sarah A; Vawdrey, David K

2016-02-01

Engaging patients in their care has become a topic of increasing importance, and enabling patients to have access to their clinical data is a key aspect of such engagement. We investigated, on an international scale, the current state of approaches for providing patients with access to their own clinical information. Individuals from 28 countries were invited to participate in a cross-sectional semi-structured interview. Interview questions focused on social and cultural influences that affected patient engagement activities, government support for current and planned initiatives, data ownership models, and technical issues. Interviews were conducted with individuals from 16 countries representing six continents. Respondents reported substantive initiatives for providing information to patients in the majority of countries interviewed. These initiatives were diverse in nature and stage of implementation. Enabling patient access to data is occurring on an international scale. There is considerable variability in the level of maturity, the degree of government involvement, the technical infrastructure, and the plans for future development across the world. As informaticians, we are still in the early stages of deploying patient engagement technologies and have yet to identify optimal strategies in this arena. Efforts to improve patient access to data are active on a global-scale. There are many open questions about best practices and much can be learned by adopting an international perspective to guide future implementation efforts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A priori discretization quality metrics for distributed hydrologic modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hongli; Tolson, Bryan; Craig, James; Shafii, Mahyar; Basu, Nandita

2016-04-01

In distributed hydrologic modelling, a watershed is treated as a set of small homogeneous units that address the spatial heterogeneity of the watershed being simulated. The ability of models to reproduce observed spatial patterns firstly depends on the spatial discretization, which is the process of defining homogeneous units in the form of grid cells, subwatersheds, or hydrologic response units etc. It is common for hydrologic modelling studies to simply adopt a nominal or default discretization strategy without formally assessing alternative discretization levels. This approach lacks formal justifications and is thus problematic. More formalized discretization strategies are either a priori or a posteriori with respect to building and running a hydrologic simulation model. A posteriori approaches tend to be ad-hoc and compare model calibration and/or validation performance under various watershed discretizations. The construction and calibration of multiple versions of a distributed model can become a seriously limiting computational burden. Current a priori approaches are more formalized and compare overall heterogeneity statistics of dominant variables between candidate discretization schemes and input data or reference zones. While a priori approaches are efficient and do not require running a hydrologic model, they do not fully investigate the internal spatial pattern changes of variables of interest. Furthermore, the existing a priori approaches focus on landscape and soil data and do not assess impacts of discretization on stream channel definition even though its significance has been noted by numerous studies. The primary goals of this study are to (1) introduce new a priori discretization quality metrics considering the spatial pattern changes of model input data; (2) introduce a two-step discretization decision-making approach to compress extreme errors and meet user-specified discretization expectations through non-uniform discretization threshold modification. The metrics for the first time provides quantification of the routing relevant information loss due to discretization according to the relationship between in-channel routing length and flow velocity. Moreover, it identifies and counts the spatial pattern changes of dominant hydrological variables by overlaying candidate discretization schemes upon input data and accumulating variable changes in area-weighted way. The metrics are straightforward and applicable to any semi-distributed or fully distributed hydrological model with grid scales are greater than input data resolutions. The discretization metrics and decision-making approach are applied to the Grand River watershed located in southwestern Ontario, Canada where discretization decisions are required for a semi-distributed modelling application. Results show that discretization induced information loss monotonically increases as discretization gets rougher. With regards to routing information loss in subbasin discretization, multiple interesting points rather than just the watershed outlet should be considered. Moreover, subbasin and HRU discretization decisions should not be considered independently since subbasin input significantly influences the complexity of HRU discretization result. Finally, results show that the common and convenient approach of making uniform discretization decisions across the watershed domain performs worse compared to a metric informed non-uniform discretization approach as the later since is able to conserve more watershed heterogeneity under the same model complexity (number of computational units).

Conversion Intentions of Interns: What Are the Motivating Factors?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hurst, Jessica L.; Good, Linda K.; Gardner, Phil

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate interns' supervisory support expectations, psychological contract obligations, job satisfaction, perception of advancement opportunities and affective organisational commitment in an attempt to gain a better understanding of how these variables influence interns' conversion intentions.…

Processes of Internal and International Migration from Chitwan, Nepal.

PubMed

Bohra, Pratikshya; Massey, Douglas S

2009-01-01

In this study we examine which factors predict internal and international migration from Chitwan, a flat valley located in the South-Central region of Nepal, seeking to measure the effect of theoretically specified variables such as human capital, social capital, physical capital, and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions while controlling for demographic variables. We use data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) to estimate a series of discrete time event history models of first and repeat migration to three competing destinations: other locations within Chitwan, other districts within Nepal, and places outside of Nepal. Results support hypotheses derived from neoclassical economics, the theory of new economics of migration, social capital theory, and cumulative causation theory. Our results underscore the need for a synthetic theoretical model that incorporates factors operating at the individual, household, and community levels. The use of multiple explanatory models yields a clearer picture of the forces driving internal and international migration from rural districts in developing nations such as Nepal.

Processes of Internal and International Migration from Chitwan, Nepal

PubMed Central

Bohra, Pratikshya; Massey, Douglas S.

2011-01-01

In this study we examine which factors predict internal and international migration from Chitwan, a flat valley located in the South-Central region of Nepal, seeking to measure the effect of theoretically specified variables such as human capital, social capital, physical capital, and neighborhood socioeconomic conditions while controlling for demographic variables. We use data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) to estimate a series of discrete time event history models of first and repeat migration to three competing destinations: other locations within Chitwan, other districts within Nepal, and places outside of Nepal. Results support hypotheses derived from neoclassical economics, the theory of new economics of migration, social capital theory, and cumulative causation theory. Our results underscore the need for a synthetic theoretical model that incorporates factors operating at the individual, household, and community levels. The use of multiple explanatory models yields a clearer picture of the forces driving internal and international migration from rural districts in developing nations such as Nepal. PMID:21423821

Effects of lidar pulse density and sample size on a model-assisted approach to estimate forest inventory variables

Treesearch

Jacob Strunk; Hailemariam Temesgen; Hans-Erik Andersen; James P. Flewelling; Lisa Madsen

2012-01-01

Using lidar in an area-based model-assisted approach to forest inventory has the potential to increase estimation precision for some forest inventory variables. This study documents the bias and precision of a model-assisted (regression estimation) approach to forest inventory with lidar-derived auxiliary variables relative to lidar pulse density and the number of...

Numerical discretization-based estimation methods for ordinary differential equation models via penalized spline smoothing with applications in biomedical research.

PubMed

Wu, Hulin; Xue, Hongqi; Kumar, Arun

2012-06-01

Differential equations are extensively used for modeling dynamics of physical processes in many scientific fields such as engineering, physics, and biomedical sciences. Parameter estimation of differential equation models is a challenging problem because of high computational cost and high-dimensional parameter space. In this article, we propose a novel class of methods for estimating parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, which is motivated by HIV dynamics modeling. The new methods exploit the form of numerical discretization algorithms for an ODE solver to formulate estimating equations. First, a penalized-spline approach is employed to estimate the state variables and the estimated state variables are then plugged in a discretization formula of an ODE solver to obtain the ODE parameter estimates via a regression approach. We consider three different order of discretization methods, Euler's method, trapezoidal rule, and Runge-Kutta method. A higher-order numerical algorithm reduces numerical error in the approximation of the derivative, which produces a more accurate estimate, but its computational cost is higher. To balance the computational cost and estimation accuracy, we demonstrate, via simulation studies, that the trapezoidal discretization-based estimate is the best and is recommended for practical use. The asymptotic properties for the proposed numerical discretization-based estimators are established. Comparisons between the proposed methods and existing methods show a clear benefit of the proposed methods in regards to the trade-off between computational cost and estimation accuracy. We apply the proposed methods t an HIV study to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

PCAN: Probabilistic correlation analysis of two non-normal data sets.

PubMed

Zoh, Roger S; Mallick, Bani; Ivanov, Ivan; Baladandayuthapani, Veera; Manyam, Ganiraju; Chapkin, Robert S; Lampe, Johanna W; Carroll, Raymond J

2016-12-01

Most cancer research now involves one or more assays profiling various biological molecules, e.g., messenger RNA and micro RNA, in samples collected on the same individuals. The main interest with these genomic data sets lies in the identification of a subset of features that are active in explaining the dependence between platforms. To quantify the strength of the dependency between two variables, correlation is often preferred. However, expression data obtained from next-generation sequencing platforms are integer with very low counts for some important features. In this case, the sample Pearson correlation is not a valid estimate of the true correlation matrix, because the sample correlation estimate between two features/variables with low counts will often be close to zero, even when the natural parameters of the Poisson distribution are, in actuality, highly correlated. We propose a model-based approach to correlation estimation between two non-normal data sets, via a method we call Probabilistic Correlations ANalysis, or PCAN. PCAN takes into consideration the distributional assumption about both data sets and suggests that correlations estimated at the model natural parameter level are more appropriate than correlations estimated directly on the observed data. We demonstrate through a simulation study that PCAN outperforms other standard approaches in estimating the true correlation between the natural parameters. We then apply PCAN to the joint analysis of a microRNA (miRNA) and a messenger RNA (mRNA) expression data set from a squamous cell lung cancer study, finding a large number of negative correlation pairs when compared to the standard approaches. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Experience sampling methodology in mental health research: new insights and technical developments

PubMed Central

Myin‐Germeys, Inez; Kasanova, Zuzana; Vaessen, Thomas; Vachon, Hugo; Kirtley, Olivia; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Reininghaus, Ulrich

2018-01-01

In the mental health field, there is a growing awareness that the study of psychiatric symptoms in the context of everyday life, using experience sampling methodology (ESM), may provide a powerful and necessary addition to more conventional research approaches. ESM, a structured self‐report diary technique, allows the investigation of experiences within, and in interaction with, the real‐world context. This paper provides an overview of how zooming in on the micro‐level of experience and behaviour using ESM adds new insights and additional perspectives to standard approaches. More specifically, it discusses how ESM: a) contributes to a deeper understanding of psychopathological phenomena, b) allows to capture variability over time, c) aids in identifying internal and situational determinants of variability in symptomatology, and d) enables a thorough investigation of the interaction between the person and his/her environment and of real‐life social interactions. Next to improving assessment of psychopathology and its underlying mechanisms, ESM contributes to advancing and changing clinical practice by allowing a more fine‐grained evaluation of treatment effects as well as by providing the opportunity for extending treatment beyond the clinical setting into real life with the development of ecological momentary interventions. Furthermore, this paper provides an overview of the technical details of setting up an ESM study in terms of design, questionnaire development and statistical approaches. Overall, although a number of considerations and challenges remain, ESM offers one of the best opportunities for personalized medicine in psychiatry, from both a research and a clinical perspective. PMID:29856567

Utilization of Integrated Assessment Modeling for determining geologic CO2 storage security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pawar, R.

2017-12-01

Geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been extensively studied as a potential technology to mitigate atmospheric concentration of CO2. Multiple international research & development efforts, large-scale demonstration and commercial projects are helping advance the technology. One of the critical areas of active investigation is prediction of long-term CO2 storage security and risks. A quantitative methodology for predicting a storage site's long-term performance is critical for making key decisions necessary for successful deployment of commercial scale projects where projects will require quantitative assessments of potential long-term liabilities. These predictions are challenging given that they require simulating CO2 and in-situ fluid movements as well as interactions through the primary storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways (such as wellbores, faults, etc.) and shallow resources such as groundwater aquifers. They need to take into account the inherent variability and uncertainties at geologic sites. This talk will provide an overview of an approach based on integrated assessment modeling (IAM) to predict long-term performance of a geologic storage site including, storage reservoir, potential leakage pathways and shallow groundwater aquifers. The approach utilizes reduced order models (ROMs) to capture the complex physical/chemical interactions resulting due to CO2 movement and interactions but are computationally extremely efficient. Applicability of the approach will be demonstrated through examples that are focused on key storage security questions such as what is the probability of leakage of CO2 from a storage reservoir? how does storage security vary for different geologic environments and operational conditions? how site parameter variability and uncertainties affect storage security, etc.

Experience sampling methodology in mental health research: new insights and technical developments.

PubMed

Myin-Germeys, Inez; Kasanova, Zuzana; Vaessen, Thomas; Vachon, Hugo; Kirtley, Olivia; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang; Reininghaus, Ulrich

2018-06-01

In the mental health field, there is a growing awareness that the study of psychiatric symptoms in the context of everyday life, using experience sampling methodology (ESM), may provide a powerful and necessary addition to more conventional research approaches. ESM, a structured self-report diary technique, allows the investigation of experiences within, and in interaction with, the real-world context. This paper provides an overview of how zooming in on the micro-level of experience and behaviour using ESM adds new insights and additional perspectives to standard approaches. More specifically, it discusses how ESM: a) contributes to a deeper understanding of psychopathological phenomena, b) allows to capture variability over time, c) aids in identifying internal and situational determinants of variability in symptomatology, and d) enables a thorough investigation of the interaction between the person and his/her environment and of real-life social interactions. Next to improving assessment of psychopathology and its underlying mechanisms, ESM contributes to advancing and changing clinical practice by allowing a more fine-grained evaluation of treatment effects as well as by providing the opportunity for extending treatment beyond the clinical setting into real life with the development of ecological momentary interventions. Furthermore, this paper provides an overview of the technical details of setting up an ESM study in terms of design, questionnaire development and statistical approaches. Overall, although a number of considerations and challenges remain, ESM offers one of the best opportunities for personalized medicine in psychiatry, from both a research and a clinical perspective. © 2018 World Psychiatric Association.

Threats to the Internal Validity of Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Research in Healthcare.

PubMed

Flannelly, Kevin J; Flannelly, Laura T; Jankowski, Katherine R B

2018-01-01

The article defines, describes, and discusses the seven threats to the internal validity of experiments discussed by Donald T. Campbell in his classic 1957 article: history, maturation, testing, instrument decay, statistical regression, selection, and mortality. These concepts are said to be threats to the internal validity of experiments because they pose alternate explanations for the apparent causal relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable of an experiment if they are not adequately controlled. A series of simple diagrams illustrate three pre-experimental designs and three true experimental designs discussed by Campbell in 1957 and several quasi-experimental designs described in his book written with Julian C. Stanley in 1966. The current article explains why each design controls for or fails to control for these seven threats to internal validity.

Estimating Latent Variable Interactions With Non-Normal Observed Data: A Comparison of Four Approaches

PubMed Central

Cham, Heining; West, Stephen G.; Ma, Yue; Aiken, Leona S.

2012-01-01

A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to investigate the robustness of four latent variable interaction modeling approaches (Constrained Product Indicator [CPI], Generalized Appended Product Indicator [GAPI], Unconstrained Product Indicator [UPI], and Latent Moderated Structural Equations [LMS]) under high degrees of non-normality of the observed exogenous variables. Results showed that the CPI and LMS approaches yielded biased estimates of the interaction effect when the exogenous variables were highly non-normal. When the violation of non-normality was not severe (normal; symmetric with excess kurtosis < 1), the LMS approach yielded the most efficient estimates of the latent interaction effect with the highest statistical power. In highly non-normal conditions, the GAPI and UPI approaches with ML estimation yielded unbiased latent interaction effect estimates, with acceptable actual Type-I error rates for both the Wald and likelihood ratio tests of interaction effect at N ≥ 500. An empirical example illustrated the use of the four approaches in testing a latent variable interaction between academic self-efficacy and positive family role models in the prediction of academic performance. PMID:23457417

Computational Implementation of a Thermodynamically Based Work Potential Model For Progressive Microdamage and Transverse Cracking in Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Collier, Craig S.

2012-01-01

A continuum-level, dual internal state variable, thermodynamically based, work potential model, Schapery Theory, is used capture the effects of two matrix damage mechanisms in a fiber-reinforced laminated composite: microdamage and transverse cracking. Matrix microdamage accrues primarily in the form of shear microcracks between the fibers of the composite. Whereas, larger transverse matrix cracks typically span the thickness of a lamina and run parallel to the fibers. Schapery Theory uses the energy potential required to advance structural changes, associated with the damage mechanisms, to govern damage growth through a set of internal state variables. These state variables are used to quantify the stiffness degradation resulting from damage growth. The transverse and shear stiffness of the lamina are related to the internal state variables through a set of measurable damage functions. Additionally, the damage variables for a given strain state can be calculated from a set of evolution equations. These evolution equations and damage functions are implemented into the finite element method and used to govern the constitutive response of the material points in the model. Additionally, an axial failure criterion is included in the model. The response of a center-notched, buffer strip-stiffened panel subjected to uniaxial tension is investigated and results are compared to experiment.

Designing an International Business Curriculum: A Market-Driven Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Javalgi, Rajshekhar G.; Vogelsang-Coombs, Vera; Lawson, Diana A.; White, D. Steven

1997-01-01

Describes a market-driven approach to international business curriculum development used in creation of a curriculum for a new school of international business. The school's leadership sought input from over 100 chief executives to determine how to align the curriculum with international business needs, and conducted structured focus groups and a…

Global Strategies for International Education Providers in Australia: A Case Study of Tropical North Queensland TAFE

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Michelle; Haberman, Leigh

2007-01-01

The continuing growth of Australia's international education market is causing providers to consider moving from international business approaches to global strategies. This paper examines factors affecting a regional Australian educational provider's approach to the international student market, using Tropical North Queensland TAFE (TNQT) for…

International Spinal Cord Injury Core Data Set (version 2.0)-including standardization of reporting.

PubMed

Biering-Sørensen, F; DeVivo, M J; Charlifue, S; Chen, Y; New, P W; Noonan, V; Post, M W M; Vogel, L

2017-08-01

The study design includes expert opinion, feedback, revisions and final consensus. The objective of the study was to present the new knowledge obtained since the International Spinal Cord Injury (SCI) Core Data Set (Version 1.0) published in 2006, and describe the adjustments made in Version 2.0, including standardization of data reporting. International. Comments received from the SCI community were discussed in a working group (WG); suggestions from the WG were reviewed and revisions were made. All suggested revisions were considered, and a final version was circulated for final approval. The International SCI Core Data Set (Version 2.0) consists of 25 variables. Changes made to this version include the deletion of one variable 'Total Days Hospitalized' and addition of two variables 'Date of Rehabilitation Admission' and 'Date of Death.' The variable 'Injury Etiology' was extended with six non-traumatic categories, and corresponding 'Date of Injury' for non-traumatic cases, was defined as the date of first physician visit for symptoms related to spinal cord dysfunction. A category reflecting transgender was added. A response category was added to the variable on utilization of ventilatory assistance to document the use of continuous positive airway pressure for sleep apnea. Other clarifications were made to the text. The reporting of the pediatric SCI population was updated as age groups 0-5, 6-12, 13-14, 15-17 and 18-21. Collection of the core data set should be a basic requirement of all studies of SCI to facilitate accurate descriptions of patient populations and comparison of results across published studies from around the world.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Elizabeth J.; Yu, Sungduk; Kooperman, Gabriel J.

The sensitivities of simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central U.S. to microphysics and grid configuration are evaluated here in a global climate model (GCM) that also permits global-scale feedbacks and variability. Since conventional GCMs do not simulate MCSs, studying their sensitivities in a global framework useful for climate change simulations has not previously been possible. To date, MCS sensitivity experiments have relied on controlled cloud resolving model (CRM) studies with limited domains, which avoid internal variability and neglect feedbacks between local convection and larger-scale dynamics. However, recent work with superparameterized (SP) GCMs has shown that eastward propagating MCS-likemore » events are captured when embedded CRMs replace convective parameterizations. This study uses a SP version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SP-CAM5) to evaluate MCS sensitivities, applying an objective empirical orthogonal function algorithm to identify MCS-like events, and harmonizing composite storms to account for seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. A five-summer control simulation is used to assess the magnitude of internal and interannual variability relative to 10 sensitivity experiments with varied CRM parameters, including ice fall speed, one-moment and two-moment microphysics, and grid spacing. MCS sensitivities were found to be subtle with respect to internal variability, and indicate that ensembles of over 100 storms may be necessary to detect robust differences in SP-GCMs. Furthermore, these results emphasize that the properties of MCSs can vary widely across individual events, and improving their representation in global simulations with significant internal variability may require comparison to long (multidecadal) time series of observed events rather than single season field campaigns.« less

A Bottom-up Vulnerability Analysis of Water Systems with Decentralized Decision Making and Demographic Shifts- the Case of Jordan.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachaut, T.; Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Talozi, S.; Mustafa, D.; Knox, S.; Selby, P. D.; Haddad, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Tilmant, A.

2016-12-01

Probabilistic approaches to uncertainty in water systems management can face challenges of several types: non stationary climate, sudden shocks such as conflict-driven migrations, or the internal complexity and dynamics of large systems. There has been a rising trend in the development of bottom-up methods that place focus on the decision side instead of probability distributions and climate scenarios. These approaches are based on defining acceptability thresholds for the decision makers and considering the entire range of possibilities over which such thresholds are crossed. We aim at improving the knowledge on the applicability and relevance of this approach by enlarging its scope beyond climate uncertainty and single decision makers; thus including demographic shifts, internal system dynamics, and multiple stakeholders at different scales. This vulnerability analysis is part of the Jordan Water Project and makes use of an ambitious multi-agent model developed by its teams with the extensive cooperation of the Ministry of Water and Irrigation of Jordan. The case of Jordan is a relevant example for migration spikes, rapid social changes, resource depletion and climate change impacts. The multi-agent modeling framework used provides a consistent structure to assess the vulnerability of complex water resources systems with distributed acceptability thresholds and stakeholder interaction. A proof of concept and preliminary results are presented for a non-probabilistic vulnerability analysis that involves different types of stakeholders, uncertainties other than climatic and the integration of threshold-based indicators. For each stakeholder (agent) a vulnerability matrix is constructed over a multi-dimensional domain, which includes various hydrologic and/or demographic variables.

Anthropology and Geosciences: Training and Collaboration Advancing Interdisciplinary Research of Human-environment Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brondizio, E.; Moran, E.

2005-05-01

Over the past thirteen years the Anthropological Center for Training and Research on Global Environmental Change (ACT) at Indiana University has pioneered the use of anthropological and environmental research approaches to address issues of land use change, and population-environment interaction, particularly in the Amazon. Our research and training objectives focus on how particular local populations manage resources and how those activities may be studied by integrating time-tested ethnographic methods, survey instruments, ecological field studies, and the spatial and temporal perspectives of remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems. The globalization of the environment crisis bears the risk of the research and training at universities being purely global or large scale in nature. This would fail to take into account the highly variable local causes of human activities or to discover sustainable solutions to the use, conservation, and restoration of human ecosystems. Our approach combines institutional and international collaboration, formal and hands-on laboratory and field activities developed within an interdisciplinary environment, but based on the strength of disciplinary programs. Over the past years, we have particularly emphasized collaboration between American and Brazilian scholars and students and intense work with local farmers and communities both during data collection and field research, as well as in returning data and results using different formats. In this paper, we address our experience, the challenges and advantages of theoretical and methodological development for students approaching interdisciplinary problems, innovations in linking levels of analysis, and new opportunities for international and collaborative training and research on human-environment interaction.

Variability extraction and modeling for product variants.

PubMed

Linsbauer, Lukas; Lopez-Herrejon, Roberto Erick; Egyed, Alexander

2017-01-01

Fast-changing hardware and software technologies in addition to larger and more specialized customer bases demand software tailored to meet very diverse requirements. Software development approaches that aim at capturing this diversity on a single consolidated platform often require large upfront investments, e.g., time or budget. Alternatively, companies resort to developing one variant of a software product at a time by reusing as much as possible from already-existing product variants. However, identifying and extracting the parts to reuse is an error-prone and inefficient task compounded by the typically large number of product variants. Hence, more disciplined and systematic approaches are needed to cope with the complexity of developing and maintaining sets of product variants. Such approaches require detailed information about the product variants, the features they provide and their relations. In this paper, we present an approach to extract such variability information from product variants. It identifies traces from features and feature interactions to their implementation artifacts, and computes their dependencies. This work can be useful in many scenarios ranging from ad hoc development approaches such as clone-and-own to systematic reuse approaches such as software product lines. We applied our variability extraction approach to six case studies and provide a detailed evaluation. The results show that the extracted variability information is consistent with the variability in our six case study systems given by their variability models and available product variants.

Relations between Internalizing and Externalizing Problems in Early Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Lisanne L.; Otten, Roy; Engels, Rutger C. M. E.; Kuijpers, Rowella C. W. M.; Janssens, Jan M. A. M.

2015-01-01

Background: Childhood internalizing and externalizing problems are closely related and often co-occur. Directional models have been employed to test how these problems are related, while few studies have tested a third variables model. Objective: This study investigates whether internalizing and externalizing problems are reciprocally or…

Identification of International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories for patients with peripheral arterial disease.

PubMed

Vyskocil, Erich; Gruther, Wolfgang; Steiner, Irene; Schuhfried, Othmar

2014-07-01

Disease-specific categories of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health have not yet been described for patients with chronic peripheral arterial obstructive disease (PAD). The authors examined the relationship between the categories of the Brief Core Sets for ischemic heart diseases with the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire and the ankle-brachial index to determine which International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories are most relevant for patients with PAD. This is a retrospective cohort study including 77 patients with verified PAD. Statistical analyses of the relationship between International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories as independent variables and the endpoints Peripheral Artery Questionnaire or ankle-brachial index were carried out by simple and stepwise linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, and leg (left vs. right). The stepwise linear regression model with the ankle-brachial index as dependent variable revealed a significant effect of the variables blood vessel functions and muscle endurance functions. Calculating a stepwise linear regression model with the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire as dependent variable, a significant effect of age, emotional functions, energy and drive functions, carrying out daily routine, as well as walking could be observed. This study identifies International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health categories in the Brief Core Sets for ischemic heart diseases that show a significant effect on the ankle-brachial index and the Peripheral Artery Questionnaire score in patients with PAD. These categories provide fundamental information on functioning of patients with PAD and patient-centered outcomes for rehabilitation interventions.

Sub-daily Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Variables Using Neural Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kumar, Jitendra; Brooks, Bjørn-Gustaf J.; Thornton, Peter E

2012-01-01

A new open source neural network temporal downscaling model is described and tested using CRU-NCEP reanal ysis and CCSM3 climate model output. We downscaled multiple meteorological variables in tandem from monthly to sub-daily time steps while also retaining consistent correlations between variables. We found that our feed forward, error backpropagation approach produced synthetic 6 hourly meteorology with biases no greater than 0.6% across all variables and variance that was accurate within 1% for all variables except atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and precipitation. Correlations between downscaled output and the expected (original) monthly means exceeded 0.99 for all variables, which indicates thatmore » this approach would work well for generating atmospheric forcing data consistent with mass and energy conserved GCM output. Our neural network approach performed well for variables that had correlations to other variables of about 0.3 and better and its skill was increased by downscaling multiple correlated variables together. Poor replication of precipitation intensity however required further post-processing in order to obtain the expected probability distribution. The concurrence of precipitation events with expected changes in sub ordinate variables (e.g., less incident shortwave radiation during precipitation events) were nearly as consistent in the downscaled data as in the training data with probabilities that differed by no more than 6%. Our downscaling approach requires training data at the target time step and relies on a weak assumption that climate variability in the extrapolated data is similar to variability in the training data.« less

Preliminary Internal Performance Data for a Variable-Ejector Assembly on the XJ79-GE-1 Turbojet Engine. II; Afterburning Configurations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomer, Harry E.; Groesbeck, Donald E.

1957-01-01

Internal performance of an XJ79-GE-1 variable ejector was experimentally determined with the primary nozzle in two representative after-burning positions. Jet-thrust and air-handling data were obtained in quiescent air for 4 selected ejector configurations over a wide range of secondary to primary airflow ratios and primary-nozzle pressure ratios. The experimental ejector data are presented in both graphical and tabulated form.

Identifying Useful Auxiliary Variables for Incomplete Data Analyses: A Note on a Group Difference Examination Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.

2014-01-01

This research note contributes to the discussion of methods that can be used to identify useful auxiliary variables for analyses of incomplete data sets. A latent variable approach is discussed, which is helpful in finding auxiliary variables with the property that if included in subsequent maximum likelihood analyses they may enhance considerably…

The use of heart rate variability in assessing precompetitive stress in high-standard judo athletes.

PubMed

Morales, J; Garcia, V; García-Massó, X; Salvá, P; Escobar, R; Buscà, B

2013-02-01

The objective of this study is to examine the sensitivity to and changes in heart rate variability (HRV) in stressful situations before judo competitions and to observe the differences among judo athletes according to their competitive standards in both official and unofficial competitions. 24 (10 male and 14 female) national- and international-standard athletes were evaluated. Each participant answered the Revised Competitive State Anxiety Inventory (CSAI-2R) and their HRV was recorded both during an official and unofficial competition. The MANOVA showed significant main effects of the athlete's standard and the type of competition in CSAI-2R, in HRV time domain, in HRV frequency domain and in HRV nonlinear analysis (p<0.05). International-standard judo athletes have lower somatic anxiety, cognitive anxiety, heart rate and low-high frequency ratio than national-standard athletes (p<0.05). International-standard athletes have a higher confidence, mean RR interval, standard deviation of RR, square root of the mean squared difference of successive RR intervals, number of consecutive RR that differ by more than 5 ms, short-term variability, long-term variability, long-range scaling exponents and short-range scaling exponent than national-standard judo athletes. In conclusion, international-standard athletes show less pre-competitive anxiety than the national-standard athletes and HRV analysis is sensitive to changes in pre-competitive anxiety. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

The influence of internal climate variability on heatwave frequency trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.; Fischer, E. M.; Angélil, O.; Gibson, P. B.

2017-04-01

Understanding what drives changes in heatwaves is imperative for all systems impacted by extreme heat. We examine short- (13 yr) and long-term (56 yr) heatwave frequency trends in a 21-member ensemble of a global climate model (Community Earth System Model; CESM), where each member is driven by identical anthropogenic forcings. To estimate changes dominantly due to internal climate variability, trends were calculated in the corresponding pre-industrial control run. We find that short-term trends in heatwave frequency are not robust indicators of long-term change. Additionally, we find that a lack of a long-term trend is possible, although improbable, under historical anthropogenic forcing over many regions. All long-term trends become unprecedented against internal variability when commencing in 2015 or later, and corresponding short-term trends by 2030, while the length of trend required to represent regional long-term changes is dependent on a given realization. Lastly, within ten years of a short-term decline, 95% of regional heatwave frequency trends have reverted to increases. This suggests that observed short-term changes of decreasing heatwave frequency could recover to increasing trends within the next decade. The results of this study are specific to CESM and the ‘business as usual’ scenario, and may differ under other representations of internal variability, or be less striking when a scenario with lower anthropogenic forcing is employed.

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey

2017-06-01

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.