Short-Term Estimates of Growth Using Curriculum-Based Measurement of Oral Reading Fluency: Estimating Standard Error of the Slope to Construct Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christ, Theodore J.

2006-01-01

Curriculum-based measurement of oral reading fluency (CBM-R) is an established procedure used to index the level and trend of student growth. A substantial literature base exists regarding best practices in the administration and interpretation of CBM-R; however, research has yet to adequately address the potential influence of measurement error.…

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Systematic vertical and lateral changes in quality and time resolution of the macrofossil record: insights from Holocene transgressive deposits, Po coastal plain, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzarone, Michele; Scarponi, Daniele; Kusnerik, Kristopher; Amorosi, Alessandro; Bohacs, Kevin M.; Drexler, Tina M.; Kowalewski, Michał

2017-04-01

In siliciclastic marine settings, skeletal concentrations are a characteristic feature of transgressive intervals that provide insights into paleobiology and sequence stratigraphy. To investigate taphonomic signatures of transgressive intervals, we analyzed three cores from a Holocene depositional profile of the Po coastal plain, in northern Italy. Coupled multivariate taphonomic and bathymetric trends delineate spatial and temporal gradients in sediment starvation/bypassing, suggesting that quality and resolution of the fossil record vary predictably along the studied depositional profile. Moreover, joint consideration of taphonomic, bathymetric, and fossil density trends across the study area reveals distinctive signatures that are useful in characterizing facies associations and recognizing surfaces and intervals of sequence stratigraphic significance. Within the southern Po plain succession, taphonomic degradation of macroskeletal remains increases from proximal—nearshore to distal—offshore locations. This trend is discernible for both biologically-driven (bioerosion) and chemically/physically-driven (e.g., dissolution, abrasion) shell alterations. Compared to the up-dip (most proximal) core, the down-dip core is distinguished by shell-rich lithosomes affected by ecological condensation (co-occurrence of environmentally non-overlapping taxa) and by higher taphonomic alteration. The onshore-offshore taphonomic trend likely reflects variation in sediment-supply along the depositional profile of the Holocene Northern Adriatic shelf, with surface/near-surface residence-time of macroskeletal remains increasing down dip due to lower accumulation rates. These results indicate that, during transgressive phases, changes in sea-level (base level) are likely to produce down-dip taphonomic gradients across shelves, where the quality and resolution of the fossil record both deteriorate distally. The amino acid radiometrically calibrated dates on bivalves and the chronostratigraphic framework for this profile suggest that the high levels of taphonomic degradation observed distally developed over millennial time scales ( 8ky). The patterns documented here may be characteristic of siliciclastic-dominated depositional systems that experience high-frequency, base-level fluctuations.

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Trends in preterm birth and perinatal mortality among singletons: United States, 1989 through 2000.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph, K S; Oyelese, Yinka; Demissie, Kitaw; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2005-05-01

Despite the recent increase in preterm birth in the United States, trends in preterm birth subtypes have not been adequately examined. We examined trends in preterm birth among singletons following ruptured membranes, medical indications, and spontaneous preterm birth and evaluated the impact of these trends on perinatal mortality. A population-based, retrospective cohort study comprising 46,375,578 women (16% blacks) who delivered singleton births in the United States, 1989 through 2000, was performed. Rates of preterm birth (< 37 weeks), their subtypes, and associated perinatal mortality (stillbirths at >/= 22 weeks plus neonatal deaths within 28 days), before and after adjustment for potential confounders, were derived from ecological logistic regression models. Preterm birth rates increased by 14% (95% confidence interval 13-15%) among whites from 8.3% to 9.4% and decreased by 15% (95% confidence interval 14-16%) among blacks from 18.5% to 16.2% between 1989 and 2000. Among whites, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 23%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 55%, and spontaneous preterm birth increased by 3%. Among blacks, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 37%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 32%, and spontaneous preterm birth decreased by 27%. The largest decline in perinatal mortality among whites was associated with increases in medically indicated preterm birth, whereas the largest decline in perinatal mortality among blacks was associated with declines in preterm birth following ruptured membranes and spontaneous preterm birth. Temporal trends in preterm birth varied substantially based on underlying subtype and maternal race. The recent increase in medically indicated preterm birth was associated with a favorable reduction in perinatal mortality.

Temporal trends of copper-bearing intrauterine device discontinuation: a population-based birth-cohort study of contraceptive use among rural married women in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Jie; Tan, Xiaodong; Song, Xiangjing; Zhang, Kaining; Fang, Jing; Peng, Lin; Qi, Wencai; Nie, Zonghui; Li, Ming; Deng, Rui; Yan, Chaofang

2015-03-01

Copper-bearing intrauterine device (IUD) insertion for long-term contraceptive use is high in China, but there has been evidence that first-year discontinuation rate of copper-bearing IUD has also increased rapidly in recent years especially among rural married women. To investigate long-term use of copper-bearing IUD, the authors examined the 7-year temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation in a population-based birth-cohort study among 720 rural married women in China, from 2004 to 2012. Women requesting contraception were followed-up twice per year after the insertion of IUD. The gross cumulative life table discontinuation rates were calculated for each of the main reasons for discontinuation as well as for all reasons combined. By the end of 7 years, 384 discontinuations were observed. With a stepped-up trend, the gross cumulative life table rate for discontinuation increased from 10.06 (95% confidence interval = 7.86-12.27) per 100 women by the first year to 52.69 (95% confidence interval = 48.94-56.44) per 100 women by the end of 7 years, which increased rapidly in the first 2 years after copper-bearing IUD insertion, flattened out gradually in the following 2 years, then increased again in the last 3 years. Among reported method failure, expulsion and side effects were the main reasons for discontinuation of the copper-bearing IUD but not pregnancy. Personal reasons, such as renewal by personal will had influenced copper-bearing IUD use since the second year and should not be neglected. Based on this study, the temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation was in a stepped-up trend in 7 years after insertion. Both reported method failure (expulsion and side effect) and personal reason had effect on the discontinuation of copper-bearing IUD, but pregnancy was no more the most important reason affecting the use of copper-bearing IUD. © 2014 APJPH.

Midsouth forest area trends

Treesearch

Richard A. Birdsey; William H. McWilliams

1986-01-01

The forest inventory and analysis unit of the southern forest experiment stations (Forest Survey) conducts periodic inventories at approximately 10-year intervals of the forest resources of the Midsouth States (fig. 1). This report contains a summary of forest acreage estimates made between 1950 and 1985. The statistics are based on published forest survey reports and...

Effective data validation of high-frequency data: time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods.

PubMed

Horn, W; Miksch, S; Egghart, G; Popow, C; Paky, F

1997-09-01

Real-time systems for monitoring and therapy planning, which receive their data from on-line monitoring equipment and computer-based patient records, require reliable data. Data validation has to utilize and combine a set of fast methods to detect, eliminate, and repair faulty data, which may lead to life-threatening conclusions. The strength of data validation results from the combination of numerical and knowledge-based methods applied to both continuously-assessed high-frequency data and discontinuously-assessed data. Dealing with high-frequency data, examining single measurements is not sufficient. It is essential to take into account the behavior of parameters over time. We present time-point-, time-interval-, and trend-based methods for validation and repair. These are complemented by time-independent methods for determining an overall reliability of measurements. The data validation benefits from the temporal data-abstraction process, which provides automatically derived qualitative values and patterns. The temporal abstraction is oriented on a context-sensitive and expectation-guided principle. Additional knowledge derived from domain experts forms an essential part for all of these methods. The methods are applied in the field of artificial ventilation of newborn infants. Examples from the real-time monitoring and therapy-planning system VIE-VENT illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the methods.

Trends in live birth rates and adverse neonatal outcomes among HIV-positive women in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2009: a descriptive population-based study.

PubMed

Antoniou, Tony; Zagorski, Brandon; Macdonald, Erin M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Raboud, Janet; Brophy, Jason; Masinde, Khatundi-Irene; Tharao, Wangari E; Yudin, Mark H; Ng, Ryan; Loutfy, Mona R; Glazier, Richard H

2014-11-01

To characterise trends in live birth rates, adverse neonatal outcomes and socio-demographic characteristics of pregnant women with diagnosed HIV between the ages of 18 and 49 in Ontario, Canada from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2010, we conducted a population-based study. Utilising linked administrative healthcare databases we used generalised estimating equations to characterise secular trends and examine the association between live births and socio-demographic characteristics, including age, region of birth and neighbourhood income quintile. Between 2002/2003 and 2009/2010, there were 551 live births during 15,610 person-years of follow-up. The proportion of HIV-positive mothers originally from Africa or the Caribbean increased from 26.7% to 51.6% over the study period. The risk of pre-term (risk ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.74 to 2.61) and small for gestational age births (risk ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.94) was higher in women with HIV compared with provincial estimates for these outcomes. Women with HIV have rates of pre-term and small for gestational age births that exceed provincial estimates for these outcomes. Further research is required to identify factors mediating these disparities that are amenable to pre-natal risk reduction initiatives. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Effect of Age and Sex on the QTc Interval in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 and 2 Long-QT Syndrome.

PubMed

Vink, Arja S; Clur, Sally-Ann B; Geskus, Ronald B; Blank, Andreas C; De Kezel, Charlotte C A; Yoshinaga, Masao; Hofman, Nynke; Wilde, Arthur A M; Blom, Nico A

2017-04-01

In congenital long-QT syndrome, age, sex, and genotype have been associated with cardiac events, but their effect on the trend in QTc interval has never been established. We, therefore, aimed to assess the effect of age and sex on the QTc interval in children and adolescents with type 1 (LQT1) and type 2 (LQT2) long-QT syndrome. QTc intervals of 12-lead resting electrocardiograms were determined, and trends over time were analyzed using a linear mixed-effects model. The study included 278 patients with a median follow-up of 4 years (interquartile range, 1-9) and a median number of 6 (interquartile range, 2-10) electrocardiograms per patient. Both LQT1 and LQT2 male patients showed QTc interval shortening after the onset of puberty. In LQT2 male patients, this was preceded by a progressive QTc interval prolongation. In LQT1, after the age of 12 years, male patients had a significantly shorter QTc interval than female patients. In LQT2, during the first years of life and from 14 to 26 years, male patients had a significantly shorter QTc interval than female patients. On the contrary, between 5 and 14 years, LQT2 male patients had significantly longer QTc interval than LQT2 female patients. There is a significant effect of age and sex on the QTc interval in long-QT syndrome, with a unique pattern per genotype. The age of 12 to 14 years is an important transitional period. In the risk stratification and management of long-QT syndrome patients, clinicians should be aware of these age-, sex-, and genotype-related trends in QTc interval and especially the important role of the onset of puberty. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Modeling trends from North American Breeding Bird Survey data: a spatially explicit approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Sauer, John R.; Pardieck, Keith L.; Doherty, Paul; Royle, J. Andy

2013-01-01

Population trends, defined as interval-specific proportional changes in population size, are often used to help identify species of conservation interest. Efficient modeling of such trends depends on the consideration of the correlation of population changes with key spatial and environmental covariates. This can provide insights into causal mechanisms and allow spatially explicit summaries at scales that are of interest to management agencies. We expand the hierarchical modeling framework used in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) by developing a spatially explicit model of temporal trend using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. By adopting a formal spatial model for abundance, we produce spatially explicit abundance and trend estimates. Analyses based on large-scale geographic strata such as Bird Conservation Regions (BCR) can suffer from basic imbalances in spatial sampling. Our approach addresses this issue by providing an explicit weighting based on the fundamental sample allocation unit of the BBS. We applied the spatial model to three species from the BBS. Species have been chosen based upon their well-known population change patterns, which allows us to evaluate the quality of our model and the biological meaning of our estimates. We also compare our results with the ones obtained for BCRs using a nonspatial hierarchical model (Sauer and Link 2011). Globally, estimates for mean trends are consistent between the two approaches but spatial estimates provide much more precise trend estimates in regions on the edges of species ranges that were poorly estimated in non-spatial analyses. Incorporating a spatial component in the analysis not only allows us to obtain relevant and biologically meaningful estimates for population trends, but also enables us to provide a flexible framework in order to obtain trend estimates for any area.

Twenty-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed anogenital warts in Canada.

PubMed

Kliewer, Erich V; Demers, Alain A; Elliott, Lawrence; Lotocki, Robert; Butler, James R G; Brisson, Marc

2009-06-01

A vaccine has recently been licensed in many countries that protects against the human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16, and 18. Types 6 and 11 account for approximately 90% of anogenital warts (AGWs). We describe the 20-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of AGWs in Manitoba, Canada. We used linked population-based hospital and physician databases for Manitoba for 1984 to 2004. Cases were identified using tariff (billing) and ICD codes. A case was considered to be incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval free period of AGWs care. Otherwise, it was deemed to be prevalent. An episode was considered over once a 12-month interval had elapsed without an AGW claim. Approximately 25,000 Manitobans were diagnosed with AGWs between 1985 and 2004. The annual age-standardized incidence rates peaked in 1992 (men, 149.9/100,000; women 170.8/100,000). In recent years, the rates have been increasing again, particularly for men. The male:female incidence rate ratio increased from 0.76 in 1985 to 1.25 in 2004. The highest incidence rate tended to be in those aged 20 to 24 years. Trends in prevalence were similar. Prevalence in 2004 was 165.2/100,000 for men and 128.4/100,000 for women. These population-based findings suggest that AGWs are a substantial burden to Manitobans and that their pattern has changed over time, with incidence and prevalence becoming higher in men than women. Monitoring the future trends in AGWs will provide an early marker of the effectiveness and duration of protection of human papillomavirus vaccination at a population level.

Recent age- and gender-specific trends in mortality during stroke hospitalization in the United States.

PubMed

Ovbiagele, Bruce; Markovic, Daniela; Towfighi, Amytis

2011-10-01

Advancements in diagnosis and treatment have resulted in better clinical outcomes after stroke; however, the influence of age and gender on recent trends in death during stroke hospitalization has not been specifically investigated. We assessed the impact of age and gender on nationwide patterns of in-hospital mortality after stroke. Data were obtained from all US states that contributed to the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. All patients admitted to hospitals between 1997 and 1998 (n=1 351 293) and 2005 and 2006 (n=1 202 449), with a discharge diagnosis of stroke (identified by the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision procedure codes), were included. Time trends for in-hospital mortality after stroke were evaluated by gender and age group based on 10-year age increments (<55, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, >84) using multivariable logistic regression. Between 1997 and 2006, in-hospital mortality rates decreased across time in all sub-groups (all P<0·01), except in men >84 years. In unadjusted analysis, men aged >84 years in 1997-1998 had poorer mortality outcomes than similarly aged women (odds ratio 0·93, 95% confidence interval=0·88-0·98). This disparity worsened by 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·88, 95% confidence interval=0·84-0·93). After adjusting for confounders, compared with similarly aged women, the mortality outcomes among men aged >84 years were poorer in 1997-1998 (odds ratio 0·97, 95% confidence interval=0·92-1·02) and were poorer in 2005-2006 (odds ratio 0·92, 95% confidence interval=0·87-0·96), P=0·04, for gender × time trend. Over the last decade, in-hospital mortality rates after stroke in the United States have declined for every age/gender group, except men aged >84 years. Given the rapidly ageing US population, avenues for boosting in-hospital survival among very elderly men with stroke need to be explored. © 2011 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2011 World Stroke Organization.

The First Year Experience in Australian Universities: Findings from Two Decades, 1994-­2014

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baik, Chi; Naylor, Ryan; Arkoudis, Sophie

2015-01-01

This report provides an analysis of trends over a twenty year period in the attitudes and experiences of first year students in Australian universities. It is based on the national survey of first year students undertaken by the Melbourne Centre for the Study of Higher Education at five-yearly intervals since 1994. Dramatic changes have taken…

Trends of preterm birth and low birth weight in Japan: a one hospital-based study.

PubMed

Yorifuji, Takashi; Naruse, Hiroo; Kashima, Saori; Murakoshi, Takeshi; Kato, Tsuguhiko; Inoue, Sachiko; Doi, Hiroyuki; Kawachi, Ichiro

2012-12-26

The proportions of preterm birth (PTB, ie., delivered before 37 gestational weeks) and low birth weight (LBW, ie., birth weight less than 2500 g at delivery) have been rising in developed countries. We sought to examine the factors contributing to the rise in Japan, with particular focus on the effects of obstetric interventions. We used a database maintained by one large regional hospital in Shizuoka, Japan. We restricted the analysis to mothers who delivered live singleton births from 1997 to 2010 (n = 19,221). We assessed the temporal trends in PTB and LBW, then divided the study period into four intervals and compared the proportions of PTB and LBW. We also compared the newborns' outcomes between the intervals. PTB, in particular medically indicated PTB, increased considerably. The increase was largely explained by changes in caesarean sections. The neonatal outcomes did not worsen, and instead the Apgar scores and proportions requiring neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission improved. In particular, the risks of NICU admission in the interval from 2007 to 2010 were decreased among all births [odds ratio (OR): 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75, 0.95] and medically indicated births (OR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.68) compared with the interval from 1997 to 2000. Despite the increases in PTB as well as LBW, the present study suggests benefits of obstetric interventions. Rather than simple categorization of PTB or LBW, indicators such as perinatal mortality or other outcomes may be more appropriate for evaluation of perinatal health in developed countries.

An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

2015-02-01

The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

40 CFR 228.9 - Disposal site monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... appropriate, may include baseline or trend assessment surveys by EPA, NOAA, other Federal agencies, or... following components: (1) Trend assessment surveys conducted at intervals frequent enough to assess the extent and trends of environmental impact. Until survey data or other information are adequate to show...

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Dietary Protein and Potassium, Diet-Dependent Net Acid Load, and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones.

PubMed

Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Mandel, Ernest I; Curhan, Gary C; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N

2016-10-07

Protein and potassium intake and the resulting diet-dependent net acid load may affect kidney stone formation. It is not known whether protein type or net acid load is associated with risk of kidney stones. We prospectively examined intakes of protein (dairy, nondairy animal, and vegetable), potassium, and animal protein-to-potassium ratio (an estimate of net acid load) and risk of incident kidney stones in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study ( n =42,919), the Nurses' Health Study I ( n =60,128), and the Nurses' Health Study II ( n =90,629). Multivariable models were adjusted for age, body mass index, diet, and other factors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations with 24-hour urine ( n =6129). During 3,108,264 person-years of follow-up, there were 6308 incident kidney stones. Dairy protein was associated with lower risk in the Nurses' Health Study II (hazard ratio for highest versus lowest quintile, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.96; P value for trend <0.01). The hazard ratios for nondairy animal protein were 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.36; P value for trend =0.04) in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.46; P value for trend =0.06) in the Nurses' Health Study I. Potassium intake was associated with lower risk in all three cohorts (hazard ratios from 0.44 [95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.53] to 0.67 [95% confidence interval, 0.57 to 0.78]; P values for trend <0.001). Animal protein-to-potassium ratio was associated with higher risk ( P value for trend =0.004), even after adjustment for animal protein and potassium. Higher dietary potassium was associated with higher urine citrate, pH, and volume ( P values for trend <0.002). Kidney stone risk may vary by protein type. Diets high in potassium or with a relative abundance of potassium compared with animal protein could represent a means of stone prevention. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Dietary Protein and Potassium, Diet–Dependent Net Acid Load, and Risk of Incident Kidney Stones

PubMed Central

Mandel, Ernest I.; Curhan, Gary C.; Gambaro, Giovanni; Taylor, Eric N.

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Protein and potassium intake and the resulting diet–dependent net acid load may affect kidney stone formation. It is not known whether protein type or net acid load is associated with risk of kidney stones. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We prospectively examined intakes of protein (dairy, nondairy animal, and vegetable), potassium, and animal protein-to-potassium ratio (an estimate of net acid load) and risk of incident kidney stones in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (n=42,919), the Nurses’ Health Study I (n=60,128), and the Nurses’ Health Study II (n=90,629). Multivariable models were adjusted for age, body mass index, diet, and other factors. We also analyzed cross-sectional associations with 24-hour urine (n=6129). Results During 3,108,264 person-years of follow-up, there were 6308 incident kidney stones. Dairy protein was associated with lower risk in the Nurses’ Health Study II (hazard ratio for highest versus lowest quintile, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.96; P value for trend <0.01). The hazard ratios for nondairy animal protein were 1.15 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.36; P value for trend =0.04) in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study and 1.20 (95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.46; P value for trend =0.06) in the Nurses’ Health Study I. Potassium intake was associated with lower risk in all three cohorts (hazard ratios from 0.44 [95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.53] to 0.67 [95% confidence interval, 0.57 to 0.78]; P values for trend <0.001). Animal protein-to-potassium ratio was associated with higher risk (P value for trend =0.004), even after adjustment for animal protein and potassium. Higher dietary potassium was associated with higher urine citrate, pH, and volume (P values for trend <0.002). Conclusions Kidney stone risk may vary by protein type. Diets high in potassium or with a relative abundance of potassium compared with animal protein could represent a means of stone prevention. PMID:27445166

Food-frequency questionnaire-based estimates of total antioxidant capacity and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

PubMed

Holtan, Shernan G; O'Connor, Helen M; Fredericksen, Zachary S; Liebow, Mark; Thompson, Carrie A; Macon, William R; Micallef, Ivana N; Wang, Alice H; Slager, Susan L; Habermann, Thomas M; Call, Timothy G; Cerhan, James R

2012-09-01

Antioxidants, primarily from fruits and vegetables, have been hypothesized to protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay, which measures total antioxidant capacity of individual foods and accounts for synergism, can be estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We tested the hypothesis that higher intake of antioxidant nutrients from foods, supplements and FFQ-based ORAC values are associated with a lower risk of NHL in a clinic-based study of 603 incident cases and 1,007 frequency-matched controls. Diet was assessed with a 128-item FFQ. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, sex, residence and total energy. Dietary intake of α-tocopherol (OR=0.50; p-trend=0.0002), β-carotene (OR=0.58; p-trend=0.0005), lutein/zeaxanthin (OR=0.62; p-trend=0.005), zinc (OR=0.54; p-trend=0.003) and chromium (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.032) was inversely associated with NHL risk. Inclusion of supplement use had little impact on these associations. Total vegetables (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001), particularly green leafy (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001) and cruciferous (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.045) vegetables, were inversely associated with NHL risk. NHL risk was inversely associated with both hydrophilic ORAC (OR=0.61, p-trend=0.003) and lipophilic ORAC (OR=0.48, p-trend=0.0002), although after simultaneous adjustment for other antioxidants or total vegetables, only the association for lipophilic ORAC remained significant. There was no striking heterogeneity in results across the common NHL subtypes. Higher antioxidant intake as estimated by the FFQ-ORAC, particularly the lipophilic component, was associated with a lower NHL risk after accounting for other antioxidant nutrients and vegetable intake, supporting this as potentially useful summary measure of total antioxidant intake. Copyright © 2011 UICC.

Food-Frequency Questionnaire Based Estimates of Total Antioxidant Capacity and Risk of Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

PubMed Central

Holtan, Shernan G.; O’Connor, Helen M.; Fredericksen, Zachary S.; Liebow, Mark; Thompson, Carrie A.; Macon, William R.; Micallef, Ivana N.; Wang, Alice H.; Slager, Susan L.; Habermann, Thomas M.; Call, Timothy G.; Cerhan, James R.

2011-01-01

Antioxidants, primarily from fruits and vegetables, have been hypothesized to protect against non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity (ORAC) assay, which measures total antioxidant capacity of individual foods and accounts for synergism, can be estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). We tested the hypothesis that higher intake of antioxidant nutrients from foods, supplements, and FFQ-based ORAC values are associated with a lower risk of NHL in a clinic-based study of 603 incident cases and 1007 frequency-matched controls. Diet was assessed with a 128-item FFQ. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals adjusted for age, sex, residence and total energy. Dietary intake of α-tocopherol (OR=0.50; p-trend=0.0002), β-carotene (OR=0.58; p-trend=0.0005), lutein/zeaxanthin (OR=0.62; p-trend=0.005), zinc (OR=0.54; p-trend=0.003) and chromium (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.032) were inversely associated with NHL risk. Inclusion of supplement use had little impact on these associations. Total vegetables (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001), particularly green leafy (OR=0.52; p-trend<0.0001) and cruciferous (OR=0.68; p-trend=0.045) vegetables, were inversely associated with NHL risk. NHL risk was inversely associated with both hydrophilic ORAC (OR=0.61, p-trend=0.003) and lipophilic ORAC (OR=0.48, p-trend=0.0002), although after simultaneous adjustment for other antioxidants or total vegetables only the association for lipophilic ORAC remained significant. There was no striking heterogeneity in results across the common NHL subtypes. Higher antioxidant intake as estimated by the FFQ-ORAC, particularly the lipophilic component, was associated with a lower NHL risk after accounting for other antioxidant nutrients and vegetable intake, supporting this as potentially useful summary measure of total antioxidant intake. PMID:22038870

Emerging Trends in Surgical and Adjuvant Radiation Therapies among Women Diagnosed with Ductal Carcinoma in Situ

PubMed Central

Shiyanbola, Oyewale O.; Sprague, Brian L.; Hampton, John M.; Dittus, Kim; James, Ted A.; Herschorn, Sally; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Weaver, Donald L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND The use of surgery and radiation therapy in treating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is directed by treatment guidelines and evidence from research. We sought to investigate recent patterns in DCIS treatment by demographic factors. METHODS Data for women diagnosed with DCIS between 1998 and 2011 (n = 416,232) in the National Cancer Data Base were assessed for trends in treatment patterns by age group, calendar year, ancestral/ethnic group and geographic region. The likelihood of receiving specific treatment modalities was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS DCIS cases were most frequently treated with breast conserving surgery (BCS) and adjuvant radiation (45.6%). After an initial rise, the use of adjuvant radiation following BCS plateaued at around 70% after 2007, with increasing utilization of mastectomy beyond 2005. Additionally, there was an increasing trend in post-mastectomy reconstruction over time, and women of African ancestry (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval,0.66–0.72) and Hispanic women were less likely to undergo reconstruction (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.78–0.89) compared to women of European ancestry. A similar trend was observed in contralateral risk reducing mastectomy utilization, with women of European ancestry having a more rapid rise in the utilization of contralateral risk reducing mastectomy among all ancestral/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION Recent trends demonstrate a plateau in radiation therapy administration following BCS, with increasing utilization of mastectomy, reconstruction and contralateral risk reducing mastectomy. There are substantial differences in treatment utilization according to ancestry/ethnicity and geographical region. Further studies examining patient-physician decision making surrounding DCIS treatment are warranted. PMID:27244699

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Nonlinear analysis of gait kinematics to track changes in oxygen consumption in prolonged load carriage walking: a pilot study.

PubMed

Schiffman, Jeffrey M; Chelidze, David; Adams, Albert; Segala, David B; Hasselquist, Leif

2009-09-18

Linking human mechanical work to physiological work for the purpose of developing a model of physical fatigue is a complex problem that cannot be solved easily by conventional biomechanical analysis. The purpose of the study was to determine if two nonlinear analysis methods can address the fundamental issue of utilizing kinematic data to track oxygen consumption from a prolonged walking trial: we evaluated the effectiveness of dynamical systems and fractal analysis in this study. Further, we selected, oxygen consumption as a measure to represent the underlying physiological measure of fatigue. Three male US Army Soldier volunteers (means: 23.3 yr; 1.80 m; 77.3 kg) walked for 120 min at 1.34 m/s with a 40-kg load on a level treadmill. Gait kinematic data and oxygen consumption (VO(2)) data were collected over the 120-min period. For the fractal analysis, utilizing stride interval data, we calculated fractal dimension. For the dynamical systems analysis, kinematic angle time series were used to estimate phase space warping based features at uniform time intervals: smooth orthogonal decomposition (SOD) was used to extract slowly time-varying trends from these features. Estimated fractal dimensions showed no apparent trend or correlation with independently measured VO(2). While inter-individual difference did exist in the VO(2) data, dominant SOD time trends tracked and correlated with the VO(2) for all volunteers. Thus, dynamical systems analysis using gait kinematics may be suitable to develop a model to predict physiologic fatigue based on biomechanical work.

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season.

A new record of the Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum from the Mississippi Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platt, B. F.; Gerweck, E. D.

2017-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene interval is well known as a time of climatic transitions, especially hyperthermals associated with disturbances in the carbon cycle that are used as proxies for impacts of projected anthropogenic global climate change. A recent roadcut in Benton County, Mississippi exposes a disconformity between the Paleocene Naheola Formation and the Eocene Meridian Sand. The disconformity is developed on a thick, kaolinitic paleosol, which we interpret as a mature Oxisol that supported tropical rainforest vegetation (as evidenced by associated well preserved leaf fossils). The nature of the paleosol at the disconformity led us to hypothesize that the strata might contain evidence of the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). We sampled two Mississippi Mineral Resources Institute (MMRI) cores from the equivalent stratigraphic interval from Benton and Tippah Counties, Mississippi, for bulk organic carbon stable isotopes at 25-cm intervals. Results showed no evidence of the negative excursion characteristic of the PETM. Instead, we found a gradual upsection enrichment that we interpret as the positive trend characteristic of the lower Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maximum (PCIM). This is reasonable based on published biostratigraphy and absolute ages from elsewhere in the Naheola Formation. Further analyses will be performed to determine whether the PCIM trend continues throughout the remainder of the core. The identification of the PCIM in Mississippi Embayment (ME) sediments is important because stable carbon isotope data may be useful for improving chronostratigraphy in the ME. Also, the PCIM is associated with a gradual warming trend as indicated by previously published stable oxygen isotopes from benthic foraminifera. Studying successive ME paleosols throughout the PCIM may yield information about the impacts of gradual atmospheric warming on soils and associated terrestrial systems.

Trends in risk factor prevalence and management before first stroke: data from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

PubMed

Marshall, Iain J; Wang, Yanzhong; McKevitt, Christopher; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A

2013-07-01

Vascular risk factors are suboptimally managed internationally. This study investigated time trends in risk factors diagnosed before stroke and their treatment, and factors associated with appropriate medication use. A total of 4416 patients with a first stroke were registered in the population-based South London Stroke Register from 1995 to 2011. Previously diagnosed risk factors and usual medications were collected from patients' primary care and hospital records. Trends and associations were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Seventy-two percent of patients were diagnosed previously with 1 or more risk factors; 30% had diagnosed risk factors that were untreated. Hypercholesterolemia increased significantly during the study period; myocardial infarction and transient ischemic attack prevalences decreased. Antiplatelet prescription increased in atrial fibrillation (AF), myocardial infarction, and transient ischemic attack (AF, 37%-51%, P<0.001; myocardial infarction, 48%-69%, P<0.001; transient ischemic attack, 49%-61%, P=0.015). Anticoagulant prescription for AF showed a nonsignificant increase (12%-23%; P=0.059). Fewer older patients with AF were prescribed anticoagulants (age, >85 versus <65 years; adjusted relative risk, 0.19; 95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.41). Black ethnicity (adjusted relative risk, 1.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-1.23) and female sex (adjusted relative risk, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.15) were associated with increased antihypertensive drug prescription; other medications did not vary by ethnicity or sex. Antiplatelet and cholesterol-lowering treatment prescribing have improved significantly over time; however, only a minority with AF received anticoagulants, and this did not improve significantly. Overall, 30% of strokes occurred in patients with previously diagnosed but untreated risk factors.

Antarctic ozone loss in 1989-2010: evidence for ozone recovery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuttippurath, J.; Lefèvre, F.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Roscoe, H. K.; Goutail, F.; Pazmiño, A.; Shanklin, J. D.

2012-04-01

We present a detailed estimation of chemical ozone loss in the Antarctic polar vortex from 1989 to 2010. The analyses include ozone loss estimates for 12 Antarctic ground-based (GB) stations. All GB observations show minimum ozone in the late September-early October period. Among the stations, the lowest minimum ozone values are observed at South Pole and the highest at Dumont d'Urville. The ozone loss starts by mid-June at the vortex edge and then progresses towards the vortex core with time. The loss intensifies in August-September, peaks by the end of September-early October, and recovers thereafter. The average ozone loss in the Antarctic is revealed to be about 33-50% in 1989-1992 in agreement with the increase in halogens during this period, and then stayed at around 48% due to saturation of the loss. The ozone loss in the warmer winters (e.g. 2002, and 2004) is lower (37-46%) and in the colder winters (e.g. 2003, and 2006) is higher (52-55%). Because of small inter-annual variability, the correlation between ozone loss and the volume of polar stratospheric clouds yields ~0.51. The GB ozone and ozone loss values are in good agreement with those found from the space-based observations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (TOMS/OMI), the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), where the differences are within ±5% and are mostly within the error bars of the measurements. The piece-wise linear trends computed from the September-November vortex average GB and TOMS/OMI ozone show about -4 to -5.6 DU (Dobson Unit) yr-1 in 1989-1996 and about +1 DU yr-1 in 1997-2010. The trend during the former period is significant at 95% confidence intervals, but the trend in 1997-2010 is significant only at 85% confidence intervals. Our analyses suggest a period of about 9-10 yr to get the first detectable ozone recovery signal at the 95% confidence intervals with the current ozone trends in the Antarctic. Thus, this study reveals that the recovery of the Antarctic ozone is well on course.

Physical activity and lower limb lymphedema among uterine cancer survivors.

PubMed

Brown, Justin C; John, Gabriella M; Segal, Saya; Chu, Christina S; Schmitz, Kathryn H

2013-11-01

Physical activity (PA) is known to provide physical and mental health benefits to uterine cancer survivors. However, it is unknown if PA is associated with lower limb lymphedema (LLL), an accumulation of protein-rich fluid in the lower limbs. Therefore, we sought to examine the association between PA and LLL in uterine cancer survivors, with a focus on walking. We conducted a cross-sectional study using mailed surveys among uterine cancer survivors who received care at a university-based cancer center. We asked about PA, walking, and LLL symptoms using validated self-report questionnaires. PA was calculated using MET-hours per week, and walking was calculated using blocks per day. The response rate to our survey was 43%. Among the 213 uterine cancer survivors in our survey, 36% were classified as having LLL. Compared with participants who reported <3 MET · h · wk of PA, participants who reported ≥ 18.0 MET · h · wk of PA had an odds ratio of LLL of 0.32 (95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.69; P trend = 0.003). Stratified analyses suggested the association between PA and LLL existed only among women with body mass index (BMI) <30 kg · m (P trend = 0.007) compared with women with BMI ≥ 30 kg · m (P trend = 0.47). Compared with participants who reported <4.0 blocks per day of walking, participants who reported ≥ 12 blocks per day of walking had an odds ratio of LLL of 0.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.43; P trend < 0.0001). Stratified analyses suggested the association between walking and LLL was similar among women with BMI <30 kg · m (P trend = 0.007) and women with BMI ≥ 30 kg · m (P trend = 0.03). Participation in higher levels of PA or walking is associated with reduced proportions of LLL in dose-response fashion. These findings should be interpreted as preliminary and should be investigated in future studies.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

[Age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items: mega-data from a Japanese Health Service Association].

PubMed

Suka, Machi; Yoshida, Katsumi; Kawai, Tadashi; Aoki, Yoshikazu; Yamane, Noriyuki; Yamauchi, Kuniaki

2005-07-01

To determine age- and sex-specific reference intervals for 10 health examination items in Japanese adults. Health examination data were accumulated from 24 different prefectural health service associations affiliated with the Japan Association of Health Service. Those who were non-smokers, drank less than 7 days/week, and had a body mass index of 18.5-24.9kg/m2 were sampled as a reference population (n = 737,538; 224,947 men and 512,591 women). After classified by age and sex, reference intervals for 10 health examination items (systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, uric acid, AST, ALT, gamma-GT, and hemoglobin) were estimated using the parametric and nonparametric methods. In every item except for hemoglobin, men had higher reference intervals than women. Systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glucose showed an upward trend in values with increasing age. Hemoglobin showed a downward trend in values with increasing age. Triglyceride, ALT, and gamma-GT reached a peak in middle age. Overall, parametric estimates showed narrower reference intervals than non-parametric estimates. Reference intervals vary with age and sex. Age- and sex-specific reference intervals may contribute to better assessment of health examination data.

Direct Contra Naïve-Indirect Comparison of Clinical Failure Rates between High-Viscosity GIC and Conventional Amalgam Restorations: An Empirical Study

PubMed Central

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Background Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions’ evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. Methods A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Results Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann–Whitney U  =  25, nindirect  =  26; ndirect  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). Conclusion The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates. PMID:24205220

Direct contra naïve-indirect comparison of clinical failure rates between high-viscosity GIC and conventional amalgam restorations: an empirical study.

PubMed

Mickenautsch, Steffen; Yengopal, Veerasamy

2013-01-01

Naïve-indirect comparisons are comparisons between competing clinical interventions' evidence from separate (uncontrolled) trials. Direct comparisons are comparisons within randomised control trials (RCTs). The objective of this empirical study is to test the null-hypothesis that trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparisons and from direct comparisons/RCTs regarding the failure rates of amalgam and direct high-viscosity glass-ionomer cement (HVGIC) restorations in permanent posterior teeth have similar direction and magnitude. A total of 896 citations were identified through systematic literature search. From these, ten and two uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies for HVGIC and amalgam, respectively, were included for naïve-indirect comparison and could be matched with three out twenty RCTs. Summary effects sizes were computed as Odds ratios (OR; 95% Confidence intervals) and compared with those from RCTs. Trend directions were inferred from 95% Confidence interval overlaps and direction of point estimates; magnitudes of performance differences were inferred from the median point estimates (OR) with 25% and 75% percentile range, for both types of comparison. Mann-Whitney U test was applied to test for statistically significant differences between point estimates of both comparison types. Trends and performance differences inferred from naïve-indirect comparison based on evidence from uncontrolled clinical longitudinal studies and from direct comparisons based on RCT evidence are not the same. The distributions of the point estimates differed significantly for both comparison types (Mann-Whitney U  =  25, n(indirect)  =  26; n(direct)  =  8; p  =  0.0013, two-tailed). The null-hypothesis was rejected. Trends and performance differences inferred from either comparison between HVGIC and amalgam restorations failure rates in permanent posterior teeth are not the same. It is recommended that clinical practice guidance regarding HVGICs should rest on direct comparisons via RCTs and not on naïve-indirect comparisons based on uncontrolled longitudinal studies in order to avoid inflation of effect estimates.

Hydrocarbon reservoirs of Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, P.K.

1988-01-01

The statistical distribution of over 12,000 producible hydrocarbon reservoirs from various biostratigraphic intervals of the Gulf of Mexico is presented. The average number, thickness, volume, subsurface depth, and ecozone of depositional environments of the reservoirs are grouped according to biostratigraphic intervals, trends, and geographic areas. The upper Pliocene and Pleistocene reservoirs account for more than 77% of the total number. Within the Miocene trend, Bigenerina H in the western Gulf of Bigenerina A and Bigenerina 2 in the central Gulf show significant concentration of reservoirs. The average depth of production for all trends gets deeper, both from west and east,more » toward Ship Shoal-South Timbalier areas. The average thickness varies slightly between trends; however, variation between areas is more significant. A significant majority of the reservoirs of all trends in the entire Gulf is reported from the outer shelf-upper slope ecozones (E3 and E4). According to volume, the E3-E5 reservoirs can be classified into three groups; larger than 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, 5,000 to 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, and smaller than 5,000 acre-ft/reservoir.« less

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + deg N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on fire scars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on fire scars and tree natality dates). FRI were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64 deg N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (approximately 71 deg + N). Northward FRI increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = -0.95). Post Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65+degN). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 +/- 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 +/- 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (approx.71+degN). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = -0.95). Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase. Keywords Fire ecology Fire history Fire frequency Siberian wildfires Larch forests Climate change

Larch Forests of Middle Siberia: Long-Term Trends in Fire Return Intervals

PubMed Central

Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Dvinskaya, Mariya L.; Petrov, Ilya A.; Im, Sergei T.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65+°N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRI) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on fire scars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on fire scars and tree natality dates). FRI were increased with latitude increase, and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle, and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71°+N). Northward FRI increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = − 0.95). Post Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase. PMID:28966554

Mammal extinctions, body size, and paleotemperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bown, T.M.; Holroyd, P.A.; Rose, K.D.

1994-01-01

There is a general inverse relationship between the natural logarithm of tooth area (a body size indicator) of some fossil mammals and paleotemperature during approximately 2.9 million years of the early Eocene in the Bighorn Basin of northwest Wyoming. When mean temperatures became warmer, tooth areas tended to become smaller. During colder times, larger species predominated; these generally became larger or remained the same size. Paleotemperature trends also markedly affected patterns of local (and, perhaps, regional) extinction and immigration. New species appeared as immigrants during or near the hottest (smaller forms) and coldest (larger forms) intervals. Paleotemperature trend reversals commonly resulted in the ultimate extinction of both small forms (during cooling intervals) and larger forms (during warming intervals). These immigrations and extinctions mark faunal turnovers that were also modulated by sharp increases in sediment accumulation rate.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant V; Shiels, Meredith S; McGlynn, Katherine A; Engels, Eric A

2012-12-15

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a concern among individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The authors analyzed population-based registry linkage data from the US HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study (1980-2009) to examine the risk and trends of HCC among individuals with AIDS. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to measure HCC risk relative to the general population, and Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (RR) comparing incidence among individuals with AIDS. People with AIDS were categorized according to their HIV risk group into high and low hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence groups based on their HIV transmission risk category. Among 615,150 individuals with AIDS, HCC risk was elevated almost 4 times compared with the risk in the general population (N = 366; SIR, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.5-4.3). Although HCC incidence increased steadily across calendar periods (P(trend) < .0001; adjusted for sex and age), the excess risk in individuals with AIDS compared with the general population remained somewhat constant (SIRs range, 3.5-3.9) between the monotherapy/dual therapy era (1990-1995) and the recent highly active antiretroviral therapy era (2001-2009). In a multivariate model adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, and attained calendar period, HCC incidence increased with advancing age (P(trend) < .0001) and was associated with HIV risk groups with a known higher prevalence of HCV (adjusted RR, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.8). HCC incidence in individuals with AIDS has increased over time despite improved HIV treatment regimens, likely reflecting prolonged survival with chronic liver disease. The high incidence in older adults suggests that this cancer will increase in importance with aging of the HIV-infected population. Published 2012 American Cancer Society.

Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

PubMed

Hyslop, Nicole P; Trzepla, Krystyna; White, Warren H

2015-08-04

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).

Circulating Biomarkers of Dairy Fat and Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus Among Men and Women in the United States in Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Shi, Peilin; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Campos, Hannia; Orav, E John; Hu, Frank B; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-04-26

In prospective studies, the relationship of self-reported consumption of dairy foods with risk of diabetes mellitus is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed dairy fat, using circulating biomarkers, and incident diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that circulating fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat, 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, are associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Among 3333 adults aged 30 to 75 years and free of prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, total plasma and erythrocyte fatty acids were measured in blood collected in 1989 to 1990 (Nurses' Health Study) and 1993 to 1994 (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study). Incident diabetes mellitus through 2010 was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire based on symptoms, diagnostic tests, and medications. Risk was assessed by using Cox proportional hazards, with cohort findings combined by meta-analysis. During mean±standard deviation follow-up of 15.2±5.6 years, 277 new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed. In pooled multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, metabolic risk factors, lifestyle, diet, and other circulating fatty acids, individuals with higher plasma 15:0 had a 44% lower risk of diabetes mellitus (quartiles 4 versus 1, hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86; P-trend=0.01); higher plasma 17:0, 43% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.83; P-trend=0.01); and higher t-16:1n-7, 52% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70; P-trend <0.001). Findings were similar for erythrocyte 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, although with broader confidence intervals that only achieved statistical significance for 17:0. In 2 prospective cohorts, higher plasma dairy fatty acid concentrations were associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Results were similar for erythrocyte 17:0. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the potential health effects of dairy fat, and the dietary and metabolic determinants of these fatty acids. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Reproductive performance of Norwegian cattle from 1985 to 2005: trends and seasonality

PubMed Central

Refsdal, Arne Ola

2007-01-01

Declining reproductive performance is a serious breeding concern in many countries. To reveal the situation in Norwegian cattle, trends in reproductive performance were studied using insemination reports from 1985 to 2005 and data based on herd recording files from 1989 to 2005. The total number of first services was 469.765 in 1985 declining to 335.712 in 2005. The number of recorded herds and animals declined from 21.588 to 14.718 and 360.289 to 309.452 from 1989 to 2005, respectively. Sixty days non-return rate after single inseminations (NR60) increased from 68.1 in 1985 to 72.7% in 2005 (p < 0.001) and the number of services per inseminated animal (NIA) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 (p < 0.001) from 1985 to 2005. However, return rates 0–3 days post insemination (RR0-3) increased from 6 to 12% in the same period (p < 0.001). NR60 was higher and the RR0-3 was lower in the summer season compared to the winter season during the whole period. A fertility index (FS), has been calculated from the herd recording files each year from 1989 to 2005. The average FS-index did not show a significant trend and the calving interval was also fairly constant between 12.4 and 12.6 months during this period. The average interval from calving to first and last insemination, respectively, increased from a low of 79 and 102 days in 1990 to a high of 86 and 108 days in 2005. Both intervals were consistently longer for cows in first lactation than for cows in later lactations. The percentage of inseminated animals reported culled because of poor fertility decreased from 6.0% in 1989 to 4.6% in 1996 and thereafter again increased to 6% in 2005. In conclusion, most fertility measures, mainly comprising the Norwegian Red (NRF) breed, show a relatively high level of reproductive performance with a positive or a relatively constant trend during the last two decades. PMID:17295930

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Increase of Stroke Incidence in Young Adults in a Middle-Income Country: A 10-Year Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Cabral, Norberto Luiz; Freire, Aracélli Tavares; Conforto, Adriana Bastos; Dos Santos, Nayara; Reis, Felipe Ibiapina; Nagel, Vivian; Guesser, Vanessa V; Safanelli, Juliana; Longo, Alexandre L

2017-11-01

The incidence of stroke is on the rise in young adults in high-income countries. However, there is a gap of knowledge about trends in stroke incidence in young adults from low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to measure trends in incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (IH) in young people from 2005 to 2015 in Joinville, Brazil. We retrospectively ascertained all first-ever IS subtypes and IH that occurred in Joinville in the periods of 2005 to 2006, 2010 to 2011, and 2014 to 2015. Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios of all strokes, IS, and IH. We also compared the prevalence of risk factors and extension of diagnostic work-up across the 3 periods. For 10 years, we registered 2483 patients (7.5% aged <45 years). From 2005 to 2006 to 2014 to 2015, overall stroke incidence significantly increased by 62% (incidence rate ratios, 1.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.40) in subjects <45 years and by 29% in those <55 years (incidence rate ratios, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.60). Incidence of IS increased by 66% (incidence rate ratios, 1.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.54), but there was no significant change in incidence of IH in subjects <45 years. Smoking rates decreased by 71% (odds ratio, 0.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.68). Stroke incidence is rising in young adults in Joinville, Brazil, because of increase in rates of ischemic but not hemorrhagic strokes. We urgently need better policies of cardiovascular prevention in the young. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Post seismic deformation associated with the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

1997-01-01

Following the 1992 Mω=7.3 Landers earthquake, a linear array of 10 geodetic monuments at roughly 5-km spacing was established across the Emerson fault segment of the Landers rupture. The array trends perpendicular to the local strike of the fault segment and extends about 30 km on either side of it. The array was surveyed by Global Positioning System 0.034, 0.048, 0.381, 1.27, 1.88, 2.60, and 3.42 years after the Landers earthquake to measure both the spatial and temporal character of the postearthquake relaxation. The temporal behavior is described roughly by a short-term (decay time 84±23 days) exponential relaxation superimposed upon an apparently linear trend. Because the linear trend represents motions much more rapid than the observed preseismic motions, we attribute that trend to a slower (decay time greater than 5 years) postseismic relaxation, the curvature of which cannot be resolved in the short run (3.4 years) of postseismic data. About 100 mm of right-lateral displacement and 50 mm of fault-normal displacement accumulated across the geodetic array in the 3.4-year interval covered by the postseismic surveys. Those displacements are attributed to postseismic, right-lateral slip in the depth interval 10 to 30 km on the downward extension of the rupture trace. The right-lateral slip amounted to about 1 m directly beneath the geodetic array, and the fault-normal displacement is apparently primarily a consequence of the curvature of the rupture. These conclusions are based upon dislocation models fit to the observed deformation. However, no dislocation model was found with rms residuals as small as the expected observational error.

Mortality patterns and trends among 49,705 U.S.-based women in a petroleum company: update 1979-2000.

PubMed

Huebner, Wendy W; Wojcik, Nancy C; Jorgensen, Gail; Marcella, Susan P; Nicolich, Mark J

2010-01-01

To examine mortality patterns and trends in a cohort of women employed in U.S. operating segments of a petroleum company. Based on human resources databases, we defined a cohort of 49,705 U.S.-based women with at least one day of company employment during 1979 to 2000. These data sources provided demographic and most work history information. Standardized mortality ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for 95 causes of death for the total cohort and with separate analyses by job type and operating segment when numbers allowed. Cohort women have a 25% lower overall death rate than the general U.S. female population comparison. This lower rate is expected in light of the "healthy worker effect" that influences employee studies. Circulatory diseases have a deficit of 40%, and external causes of death and cancer have deficits of 13% and 9%, respectively. For analyses by job type, office/clerical workers have an elevation in ovarian cancer (standardized mortality ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.02 to 1.87), based on 46 deaths, with no work-related patterns. White-collar groups have generally large overall deficits for noncancer causes of death. In contrast, and based on smaller numbers, operators and laborers have elevations of motor vehicle accidents and other external causes of death, and laborers also have elevations of cerebrovascular disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. These variations by job type are probably associated with differences in lifestyle factors. This large mortality surveillance study of women in the petroleum industry provides an opportunity for meaningful analysis of many causes of death. The study found an overall favorable mortality profile and, for a small number of elevations, helped identify possible subgroups for health and safety prevention programs and interventions.

Discharge behavior of motor units in knee extensors during the initial stage of constant-force isometric contraction at low force level.

PubMed

Kamo, Mifuyu

2002-03-01

To elucidate the strategy of the activity of motor units (MUs) to maintain a constant-force isometric contraction, I examined the behavior of MUs in knee extensor muscles [(vastus medialis (VM), vastus lateralis (VL) and rectus femoris (RF)] during a sustained contraction at 5% of maximal voluntary contraction for 5 min. In all cases, the spike interval exhibited an elongating trend, and two discharge patterns were observed, continuous discharge and decruitment. In continuous-discharge MUs, the trend slope was steep immediately after the onset of constant force (steep phase), and then became gentle (gentle phase). Decruitments were observed frequently during each phase, and additional MU recruitment was observed throughout the contraction. The mean value of recruitment threshold force did not differ among the extensors. The mean spike interval at the onset of constant-force isometric contractions was shorter in RF than in VL. However, there were no differences in the duration and extent of the elongating trend, decruitment time and recruitment time among the extensors. The electromyogram of the antagonist biceps femoris muscle revealed no compensatory change for extensor activity. These results indicated that at a low force level, the strategy employed by the central nervous system to maintain constant force appears to involve cooperation among elongating trends in the spike interval, decruitment following elongation, and additional MU recruitment in synergistic muscles.

Diabetes mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015 (a nationwide study): A joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of diabetes mellitus in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohia). A population-based cross sectional study analyzing diabetes mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2015 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the European Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using the joinpoint regression analysis. More than 63,000 (about 27,000 of men and 36,000 of women) diabetes deaths occurred in Serbia from 1991 to 2015. Death rates from diabetes were almost equal in men and in women (about 24.0 per 100,000) and places Serbia among the countries with the highest diabetes mortality rates in Europe. Since 1991, mortality from diabetes in men significantly increased by +1.2% per year (95% CI 0.7-1.7), but non-significantly increased in women by +0.2% per year (95% CI -0.4 to 0.7). Increased trends in diabetes type 1 mortality rates were significant in both genders in Serbia. Trends in mortality for diabetes type 2 showed a significant decrease in both genders since 2010. Given that diabetes mortality trends showed different patterns during the studied period, our results imply that further observation of trend is needed. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence from national addiction treatment data.

PubMed

Smyth, Bobby P; Lyons, Suzi; Cullen, Walter

2017-09-01

New psychoactive substances (NPS) have hedonic effects that may lead to dependence. Headshops selling NPS increased in number in Ireland from late 2009. Legislation was enacted in May and August of 2010 that caused their closure. It is unknown whether such events impact the rate of NPS use disorders. We conducted a population-based study using the Irish national database of episodes of addiction treatment between 2009 and 2012. We examined trends in the rate of NPS-related treatment episodes among young adults. Joinpoint trend analysis software was used to identify significant changes in trend. Of the 31 284 episodes of addiction treatment commenced by adults aged 18 to 34 years, 756 (2.4%) were NPS related. In 2012, the 12-month moving average rate had fallen 48% from its peak in 2010, from 9.0/100 000 to 4.7/100 000. Joinpoint analysis indicated that the rate of NPS related episodes increased by 218% (95% confidence interval 86 to 445, P = 0.001) every 4 months until the first third of 2010. From that point, the rate declined by 9.8% (95% confidence interval -14.1 to -5.4, P = 0.001) per 4-month period. There was no significant trend change in the rate of non-NPS related treatment episodes. Over the 2 years after the enactment of prohibition-styled legislation targeting NPS and headshops, the rate of NPS related addiction treatment episodes among young adults declined progressively and substantially. We found no coinciding trend change in the rate of episodes linked to other drug groups. [Smyth BP, Lyons S, Cullen W. Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence fromnational addiction treatment data. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Volumetric breast density affects performance of digital screening mammography.

PubMed

Wanders, Johanna O P; Holland, Katharina; Veldhuis, Wouter B; Mann, Ritse M; Pijnappel, Ruud M; Peeters, Petra H M; van Gils, Carla H; Karssemeijer, Nico

2017-02-01

To determine to what extent automatically measured volumetric mammographic density influences screening performance when using digital mammography (DM). We collected a consecutive series of 111,898 DM examinations (2003-2011) from one screening unit of the Dutch biennial screening program (age 50-75 years). Volumetric mammographic density was automatically assessed using Volpara. We determined screening performance measures for four density categories comparable to the American College of Radiology (ACR) breast density categories. Of all the examinations, 21.6% were categorized as density category 1 ('almost entirely fatty') and 41.5, 28.9, and 8.0% as category 2-4 ('extremely dense'), respectively. We identified 667 screen-detected and 234 interval cancers. Interval cancer rates were 0.7, 1.9, 2.9, and 4.4‰ and false positive rates were 11.2, 15.1, 18.2, and 23.8‰ for categories 1-4, respectively (both p-trend < 0.001). The screening sensitivity, calculated as the proportion of screen-detected among the total of screen-detected and interval tumors, was lower in higher density categories: 85.7, 77.6, 69.5, and 61.0% for categories 1-4, respectively (p-trend < 0.001). Volumetric mammographic density, automatically measured on digital mammograms, impacts screening performance measures along the same patterns as established with ACR breast density categories. Since measuring breast density fully automatically has much higher reproducibility than visual assessment, this automatic method could help with implementing density-based supplemental screening.

Association between oral contraceptive use and markers of iron deficiency in a cross-sectional study of Tanzanian women.

PubMed

Haile, Zelalem T; Teweldeberhan, Asli K; Chertok, Ilana R A

2016-01-01

To analyze the associations between oral contraceptive (OC) use and markers of iron deficiency, objectively measured using hemoglobin and soluble transferrin receptor. A secondary data analysis was performed of a population-based cross-sectional study using data from the 2010 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Weighted percentages were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the associations between OC use and iron deficiency, anemia, and iron deficiency anemia. Of the 4336 participants, only 7.3% reported a history of OC use. The prevalence rates of iron deficiency, anemia, and iron deficiency anemia were 30.3%, 40.9%, and 15.1%, respectively. Use of OCs was negatively associated with anemia and iron deficiency anemia, independent of potential confounders. Compared with OC nonusers, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratio among OC users was 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.32-0.59; P<0.001) for anemia and 0.43 (95% confidence interval 0.27-0.68; P<0.001) for iron deficiency anemia. A longer duration of OC use was negatively associated with iron deficiency (P=0.003 for trend), anemia (P<0.001 for trend), and iron deficiency anemia (P<0.001 for trend). The significant association between OC use and iron status has important implications for educating healthcare providers and women about additional nutritional benefits of the use of OCs. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the intensity of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wayan Mangku, I.

2017-10-01

In this paper we survey some results on estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process in the presence of additive and multiplicative linear trend. We do not assume any parametric form for the cyclic component of the intensity function, except that it is periodic. Moreover, we consider the case when there is only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded interval. The considered estimators are weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the observation interval indefinitely expands. Asymptotic approximations to the bias and variance of those estimators are presented.

Plasma Levels of Fatty Acid-Binding Protein 4, Retinol-Binding Protein 4, High-Molecular-Weight Adiponectin, and Cardiovascular Mortality Among Men With Type 2 Diabetes: A 22-Year Prospective Study.

PubMed

Liu, Gang; Ding, Ming; Chiuve, Stephanie E; Rimm, Eric B; Franks, Paul W; Meigs, James B; Hu, Frank B; Sun, Qi

2016-11-01

To examine select adipokines, including fatty acid-binding protein 4, retinol-binding protein 4, and high-molecular-weight (HMW) adiponectin in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Plasma levels of fatty acid-binding protein 4, retinol-binding protein 4, and HMW adiponectin were measured in 950 men with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. After an average of 22 years of follow-up (1993-2015), 580 deaths occurred, of whom 220 died of CVD. After multivariate adjustment for covariates, higher levels of fatty acid-binding protein 4 were significantly associated with a higher CVD mortality: comparing extreme tertiles, the hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of CVD mortality was 1.78 (1.22-2.59; P trend=0.001). A positive association was also observed for HMW adiponectin: the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 2.07 (1.42-3.06; P trend=0.0002), comparing extreme tertiles, whereas higher retinol-binding protein 4 levels were nonsignificantly associated with a decreased CVD mortality with an hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.73 (0.50-1.07; P trend=0.09). A Mendelian randomization analysis suggested that the causal relationships of HMW adiponectin and retinol-binding protein 4 would be directionally opposite to those observed based on the biomarkers, although none of the Mendelian randomization associations achieved statistical significance. These data suggest that higher levels of fatty acid-binding protein 4 and HMW adiponectin are associated with elevated CVD mortality among men with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Biological mechanisms underlying these observations deserve elucidation, but the associations of HMW adiponectin may partially reflect altered adipose tissue functionality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Temporal trends in population-based death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Kim, Yuhree; Ejaz, Aslam; Tayal, Amit; Spolverato, Gaya; Bridges, John F P; Anders, Robert A; Pawlik, Timothy M

2014-10-01

The health and economic burden from liver disease in the United States is substantial and rising. The objective of this study was to characterize temporal trends in mortality from chronic liver disease and liver cancer and the incidence of associated risk factors using population-based data over the past 30 years. Population-based mortality data were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System, and population estimates were derived from the national census for US adults (aged >45 years). Crude death rates (CDRs), age-adjusted death rates (ADRs), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics were calculated. In total, 690,414 deaths (1.1%) were attributable to chronic liver disease, whereas 331,393 deaths (0.5%) were attributable to liver cancer between 1981 and 2010. The incidence of liver cancer was estimated at 7.1 cases per 100,000 population. Mortality rates from chronic liver disease and liver cancer increased substantially over the past 3 decades, with ADRs of 23.7 and 16.6 per 100,000 population in 2010, respectively. The AAPC from 2006 to 2010 demonstrated an increased ADR for chronic liver disease (AAPC, 1.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-2.8%) and liver cancer (AAPC, 2.6%; 95% confidence interval, 2.4%-2.7%). A comprehensive approach that involves primary and secondary prevention, increased access to treatment, and more funding for liver-related research is needed to address the high death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Vegetable-based dietary pattern and liver cancer risk: results from the Shanghai women's and men's health studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Ji, Bu-Tian; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou

2013-10-01

Although dietary patterns, specific foods, and their constituents have been linked to cancer risk, the role of dietary patterns and specific food groups in liver cancer risk has not been investigated. In the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS) and Shanghai Men's Health Study (SMHS), two cohort studies of 132 837 Chinese women and men, we evaluated the relationship between dietary patterns, food groups, and liver cancer risk. Through in-person interviews, dietary information intake over the preceding year was collected by using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Cox regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals with adjustment for potential confounders. During an average follow-up of 10.9 (SWHS) or 5.5 (SMHS) years, 267 incident liver cancer cases were identified after the first 2 years of study enrolment. Three dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis. A vegetable-based dietary pattern was inversely associated with liver cancer; hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for the lowest to highest quartiles were: 1.00; 0.98 (0.71-1.35); 0.93 (0.67-1.29); and 0.58 (0.40-0.84); P(trend) = 0.01. The association was stronger among participants with a history of chronic liver disease. Further analyses showed high intakes of celery, mushrooms, allium vegetables, composite vegetables (including asparagus lettuce and garland chrysanthemum), legumes and legume products were associated with reduced liver cancer risk (all P(trend) < 0.05). Fruit- and meat-based dietary patterns were not associated with liver cancer risk. Our study suggests that a vegetable-based dietary pattern is associated with reduced liver cancer risk. © 2013 Japanese Cancer Association.

Implementing the measurement interval midpoint method for change estimation

Treesearch

James A. Westfall; Thomas Frieswyk; Douglas M. Griffith

2009-01-01

The adoption of nationally consistent estimation procedures for the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program mandates changes in the methods used to develop resource trend information. Particularly, it is prescribed that changes in tree status occur at the midpoint of the measurement interval to minimize potential bias. The individual-tree characteristics requiring...

Pediatric reference value distributions and covariate-stratified reference intervals for 29 endocrine and special chemistry biomarkers on the Beckman Coulter Immunoassay Systems: a CALIPER study of healthy community children.

PubMed

Karbasy, Kimiya; Lin, Danny C C; Stoianov, Alexandra; Chan, Man Khun; Bevilacqua, Victoria; Chen, Yunqi; Adeli, Khosrow

2016-04-01

The CALIPER program is a national research initiative aimed at closing the gaps in pediatric reference intervals. CALIPER previously reported reference intervals for endocrine and special chemistry markers on Abbott immunoassays. We now report new pediatric reference intervals for immunoassays on the Beckman Coulter Immunoassay Systems and assess platform-specific differences in reference values. A total of 711 healthy children and adolescents from birth to <19 years of age were recruited from the community. Serum samples were collected for measurement of 29 biomarkers on the Beckman Coulter Immunoassay Systems. Statistically relevant age and/or gender-based partitions were determined, outliers removed, and reference intervals calculated in accordance with Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) EP28-A3c guidelines. Complex profiles were observed for all 29 analytes, necessitating unique age and/or sex-specific partitions. Overall, changes in analyte concentrations observed over the course of development were similar to trends previously reported, and are consistent with biochemical and physiological changes that occur during childhood. Marked differences were observed for some assays including progesterone, luteinizing hormone and follicle-stimulating hormone where reference intervals were higher than those reported on Abbott immunoassays and parathyroid hormone where intervals were lower. This study highlights the importance of determining reference intervals specific for each analytical platform. The CALIPER Pediatric Reference Interval database will enable accurate diagnosis and laboratory assessment of children monitored by Beckman Coulter Immunoassay Systems in health care institutions worldwide. These reference intervals must however be validated by individual labs for the local pediatric population as recommended by CLSI.

Analysis on the overpressure characterization with respect to depositional environment facies: Case Study in Miri Area, Baram Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mhd Hanapiah, N.; Yusoff, W. I. Wan; Zakariah, M. N. A.

2017-10-01

Overpressure studies in oil and gas exploration and production are carried out in order to mitigate any losses that could happen while drilling. These concerns can be addressed by enhancing the understanding of overpressure characterization in the fields. This research emphasizes in determining the pore pressure trend in Miri area to assist pore pressure prediction for future hydrocarbon exploration and production. Generally, pore pressure trends are related to mechanisms that contribute to the overpressure generation. In the region predominant overpressure are disequilibrium compaction within the prodelta shales meanwhile in outer shelf overpressure generation controlled by fluid expansion in deltaic sequence of inner shelf area. The objective of this research is to analyze the pore pressure profile of wells for determining vertical trends of pore pressure for various depositional environment facies of Miri area. Integration of rock physics and pore pressure analysis and relating the trends to environment depositional environment facies within shale underlying sand interval. Analysis done shows that overpressure top is characterize by depositional environment facies within shale underlying sand interval.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries.

PubMed

Chang, Shu-Sen; Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-09-17

To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. People aged 15 or above. Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman's rs=0.48). After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss.

Impact of 2008 global economic crisis on suicide: time trend study in 54 countries

PubMed Central

Stuckler, David; Yip, Paul; Gunnell, David

2013-01-01

Objective To investigate the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on international trends in suicide and to identify sex/age groups and countries most affected. Design Time trend analysis comparing the actual number of suicides in 2009 with the number that would be expected based on trends before the crisis (2000-07). Setting Suicide data from 54 countries; for 53 data were available in the World Health Organization mortality database and for one (the United States) data came the CDC online database. Population People aged 15 or above. Main outcome measures Suicide rate and number of excess suicides in 2009. Results There were an estimated 4884 (95% confidence interval 3907 to 5860) excess suicides in 2009 compared with the number expected based on previous trends (2000-07). The increases in suicide mainly occurred in men in the 27 European and 18 American countries; the suicide rates were 4.2% (3.4% to 5.1%) and 6.4% (5.4% to 7.5%) higher, respectively, in 2009 than expected if earlier trends had continued. For women, there was no change in European countries and the increase in the Americas was smaller than in men (2.3%). Rises in European men were highest in those aged 15-24 (11.7%), while in American countries men aged 45-64 showed the largest increase (5.2%). Rises in national suicide rates in men seemed to be associated with the magnitude of increases in unemployment, particularly in countries with low levels of unemployment before the crisis (Spearman’s rs=0.48). Conclusions After the 2008 economic crisis, rates of suicide increased in the European and American countries studied, particularly in men and in countries with higher levels of job loss. PMID:24046155

Ischaemic heart disease mortality in Serbia, 1991-2013; a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In many European countries the mortality rates due to IHD have been rising rapidly. This study was aimed to assess the IHD mortality trend in Serbia. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study analyzing IHD mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2013 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the European standard population. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: More than 253,000 people (143,420 men and 110,276 women) died due to IHD in Serbia during the observed period, and most of them (over 160,000 people) were patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Average annual ASR for IHD was 113.6/100,000. There was no overall significant trend for mortality due to IHD (AAPC=+0.1%, 95% CI −0.8-1.0), but there was one joinpoint: the trend significantly increased by +2.3 per cent per year from 1991 to 2006 and then significantly decreased by −6.4 per cent from 2006 to onwards. Significantly decreased mortality trends for MI in both genders were observed: according to the comparability test, mortality trends in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P=0.0567). Interpretation & conclusions: No significant trend for mortality due to IHD was observed in Serbia during the study period. The substantial decline of mortality from IHD seen in most developed countries during the past decades was not observed in Serbia. Further efforts are required to reduce mortality from IHD in Serbian population. PMID:29664033

Reconstruction of Middle Eocene - Late Oligocene Southern Ocean paleoclimate through calcareous nannofossils and stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villa, Giuliana; Fioroni, Chiara; Persico, Davide; Pea, Laura; Bohaty, Steve

2010-05-01

The transition from the ice free early Paleogene world to the glaciated conditions of the early Oligocene has been matter of discussion in the last years. This transition has not been monotonic but punctuated by numerous transient cooling and warming events. Here we present a summary of recent studies based on Nannofossil response to climatic changes during the Eocene and Oligocene. Collected data issue from high latitudes ODP Sites 748, 738, 744, 689 and 690. Based on a detailed revision of the biostratigraphy carried out through quantitative analysis, we conducted paleoecological studies on calcareous nannofossils through the late middle Eocene to the - late Oligocene interval to identify abundance variations of selected taxa in response to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and trophic conditions. The nannofossil-based interpretation has been compared with detailed oxygen and carbon stable isotope stratigraphy confirming the climate variability in the Southern Ocean for this time interval. We identify the Middle Eocene Climatic optimum (MECO) event, related with the regional exclusion of Paleogenic warm-water taxa from the Southern Ocean, followed by the progressive cooling trend particularly emphasized during the cooling events at about 39 Ma, 37 Ma and 35.5 Ma. In the earliest Oligocene, marked changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages are strikingly associated with the Oi-1 event recorded in perfect accordance with the oxygen isotope records. For most of the Oligocene we recorded a cold phase, while a warming trend is detected in the late Oligocene. In addiction, a marked increase of taxa thriving in eutrophic conditions coupled with a decrease in oligotrophic taxa, suggests the presence of a time interval (from about 36 Ma to about 26 Ma) with prevailing eutrophic conditions that correspond to an increase of the carbon stable isotope curve. This interval well corresponds with the clay mineral concentration that shows at Site 738 a higher concentration in illite (Ehrmann and Mackensen, 1992). This result can be interpreted as a major influx of weathering in the basin, bringing more nutrients to the surface water. Our data confirm a strong climate variability in the Southern Ocean during the middle Eocene - late Oligocene and nannofossils demonstrate to be useful tools for paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic reconstructions.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

Trends and factors associated with mental health problems among children and adolescents in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Ahmad, NoorAni; MuhdYusoff, Fadhli; Ratnasingam, Selva; Mohamed, Fauziah; Nasir, Nazrila Hairizan; MohdSallehuddin, Syafinaz; MahadirNaidu, Balkish; Ismail, Rohana; Aris, Tahir

2015-01-01

Studying trends in mental health morbidity will guide the planning of future interventions for mental and public health services. To assess the trends in mental health problems among children and adolescents aged 5 through 15 years in Malaysia from 1996 to 2011, data from the children's mental health component of three population-based surveys was analysed using a two-stage stratified sampling design. Mental health problems were assessed using the Reporting Questionnaire for Children. The prevalence of mental health problems among children and adolescents aged 5 through 15 years showed an increasing trend from 13.0% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 11.5–14.6) in 1996 to 19.4% (95% CI: 18.5–20.3) in 2006 and 20.0% (95% CI: 18.8–21.3) in 2011. In 2011, male children and adolescents and those who were in less affluent families were significantly associated with mental health problems. The findings indicate that even though mental health problems among children and adolescents in Malaysia are increasing, the rate of increase has decreased in the past five years. Socially and economically disadvantaged groups were most vulnerable to mental health problems. PMID:26000035

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Assessing browse trend at the landscape level Part 2: Monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keigley, R.B.; Frisina, M.R.; Fager, C.W.

2002-01-01

In Part 1, we assessed browse trend across a wide geographic area of Mt. Haggin Wildlife Management Area by conducting surveys of browsing-related architectures. Those data were qualitative. Below we describe the periodic collection of quantitative data from permanently marked locations; we refer to this phase of the trend assessment program as "monitoring." Trend was monitored by three methods: 1 Repeat photography. 2 Comparison of the height of live stems with the height of stems killed by browsing (LD Index). 3 Net annual stem growth rate (NAGRL3). The photography provides an assessment of trend from the comparison of photographs taken at intervals of a few years. The LD Index and NAGRL3 measurements provide an immediate assessment of trend.

Variations in rupture process with recurrence interval in a repeated small earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidale, J.E.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Cole, A.; Marone, Chris

1994-01-01

In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and increased friction are consistent with progressive fault healing during the time of stationary contact.In theory and in laboratory experiments, friction on sliding surfaces such as rock, glass and metal increases with time since the previous episode of slip. This time dependence is a central pillar of the friction laws widely used to model earthquake phenomena. On natural faults, other properties, such as rupture velocity, porosity and fluid pressure, may also vary with the recurrence interval. Eighteen repetitions of the same small earthquake, separated by intervals ranging from a few days to several years, allow us to test these laboratory predictions in situ. The events with the longest time since the previous earthquake tend to have about 15% larger seismic moment than those with the shortest intervals, although this trend is weak. In addition, the rupture durations of the events with the longest recurrence intervals are more than a factor of two shorter than for the events with the shortest intervals. Both decreased duration and increased friction are consistent with progressive fault healing during the time of stationary contact.

Applying the Pseudo-Panel Approach to International Large-Scale Assessments: A Methodology for Analyzing Subpopulation Trend Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hooper, Martin

2017-01-01

TIMSS and PIRLS assess representative samples of students at regular intervals, measuring trends in student achievement and student contexts for learning. Because individual students are not tracked over time, analysis of international large-scale assessment data is usually conducted cross-sectionally. Gustafsson (2007) proposed examining the data…

Ionospheric Electron Heating Associated With Pulsating Auroras: Joint Optical and PFISR Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jun; Donovan, E.; Reimer, A.; Hampton, D.; Zou, S.; Varney, R.

2018-05-01

In a recent study, Liang et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JA024127) repeatedly identified strong electron temperature (Te) enhancements when Swarm satellites traversed pulsating auroral patches. In this study, we use joint optical and Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) observations to further investigate the F region plasma signatures related to pulsating auroras. On 19 March 2015 night, which contained multiple intervals of pulsating auroral activities, we identify a statistical trend, albeit not a one-to-one correspondence, of strong Te enhancements ( 500-1000 K) in the upper F region ionosphere during the passages of pulsating auroras over PFISR. On the other hand, there is no discernible and repeatable density enhancement in the upper F region during pulsating auroral intervals. Collocated optical and NOAA satellite observations suggest that the pulsating auroras are composed of energetic electron precipitation with characteristic energy >10 keV, which is inefficient in electron heating in the upper F region. Based upon PFISR observations and simulations from Liang et al. (2017) model, we propose that thermal conduction from the topside ionosphere, which is heated by precipitating low-energy electrons, offers the most likely explanation for the observed electron heating in the upper F region associated with pulsating auroras. Such a heating mechanism is similar to that underlying the "stable auroral red arcs" in the subauroral ionosphere. Our proposal conforms to the notion on the coexistence of an enhanced cold plasma population and the energetic electron precipitation, in magnetospheric flux tubes threading the pulsating auroral patch. In addition, we find a trend of enhanced ion upflows during pulsating auroral intervals.

The effect of a graphical interpretation of a statistic trend indicator (Trigg's Tracking Variable) on the detection of simulated changes.

PubMed

Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F

2011-09-01

Anaesthesia involves processing large amounts of information over time. One task of the anaesthetist is to detect substantive changes in physiological variables promptly and reliably. It has been previously demonstrated that a graphical trend display of historical data leads to more rapid detection of such changes. We examined the effect of a graphical indication of the magnitude of Trigg's Tracking Variable, a simple statistically based trend detection algorithm, on the accuracy and latency of the detection of changes in a micro-simulation. Ten anaesthetists each viewed 20 simulations with four variables displayed as the current value with a simple graphical trend display. Values for these variables were generated by a computer model, and updated every second; after a period of stability a change occurred to a new random value at least 10 units from baseline. In 50% of the simulations an indication of the rate of change was given by a five level graphical representation of the value of Trigg's Tracking Variable. Participants were asked to indicate when they thought a change was occurring. Changes were detected 10.9% faster with the trend indicator present (mean 13.1 [SD 3.1] cycles vs 14.6 [SD 3.4] cycles, 95% confidence interval 0.4 to 2.5 cycles, P = 0.013. There was no difference in accuracy of detection (median with trend detection 97% [interquartile range 95 to 100%], without trend detection 100% [98 to 100%]), P = 0.8. We conclude that simple statistical trend detection may speed detection of changes during routine anaesthesia, even when a graphical trend display is present.

Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-22

For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

Long-term survival after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: population-based trends in cure and relapse by clinical characteristics.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley; Glaser, Adam W; Kinsey, Sally E; Greenwood, Darren C; Chilton, Lucy; Moorman, Anthony V; Feltbower, Richard G

2018-05-29

'Cure models' offer additional information to traditional epidemiological approaches to assess survival for cancer patients by simultaneously estimating the proportion cured and the survival of those 'uncured'. The proportion cured is a summary of long-term survival while the median survival time of the uncured provides important information on those who are not long-term survivors. Population-based trends in the cure proportion and survival of the uncured for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) by clinical prognostic risk factors were estimated using flexible parametric cure models, based on overall survival and event-free survival. Children aged 1-17 years diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 in Yorkshire, UK, were included (n = 492). The percentage cured increased from 77% (95% confidence interval 70-84%) in 1990-1997 to 89% (84-93%) in 2003-2011, while the median survival time of the uncured decreased from 3·2 years (2·2-4·1 years) to 0·7 years (0-1·5 years). Models based on event-free survival showed a similar trend. The 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse substantially decreased from 35% in 1990-97 to 9% in 2003-2011. These results show selective improvement in survival between 1990 and 2011 with a significant reduction in the risk of relapse alongside a reduced absolute duration of survival for those destined to be uncured. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Iron Metabolism Genes, Low-Level Lead Exposure, and QT Interval

PubMed Central

Park, Sung Kyun; Hu, Howard; Wright, Robert O.; Schwartz, Joel; Cheng, Yawen; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Weisskopf, Marc G.

2009-01-01

Background Cumulative exposure to lead has been shown to be associated with depression of electrocardiographic conduction, such as QT interval (time from start of the Q wave to end of the T wave). Because iron can enhance the oxidative effects of lead, we examined whether polymorphisms in iron metabolism genes [hemochromatosis (HFE), transferrin (TF) C2, and heme oxygenase-1 (HMOX-1)] increase susceptibility to the effects of lead on QT interval in 613 community-dwelling older men. Methods We used standard 12-lead electrocardiograms, K-shell X-ray fluorescence, and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry to measure QT interval, bone lead, and blood lead levels, respectively. Results A one-interquartile-range increase in tibia lead level (13 μg/g) was associated with a 11.35-msec [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.05–18.65 msec] and a 6.81-msec (95% CI, 1.67–11.95 msec) increase in the heart-rate–corrected QT interval among persons carrying long HMOX-1 alleles and at least one copy of an HFE variant, respectively, but had no effect in persons with short and middle HMOX-1 alleles and the wild-type HFE genotype. The lengthening of the heart-rate–corrected QT interval with higher tibia lead and blood lead became more pronounced as the total number (0 vs. 1 vs. ≥2) of gene variants increased (tibia, p-trend = 0.01; blood, p-trend = 0.04). This synergy seems to be driven by a joint effect between HFE variant and HMOX-1 L alleles. Conclusion We found evidence that gene variants related to iron metabolism increase the impacts of low-level lead exposure on the prolonged QT interval. This is the first such report, so these results should be interpreted cautiously and need to be independently verified. PMID:19165391

Long-term prediction of creep strains of mineral wool slabs under constant compressive stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnip, Ivan; Vaitkus, Saulius; Keršulis, Vladislovas; Vėjelis, Sigitas

2012-02-01

The results obtained in determining the creep strain of mineral wool slabs under compressive stress, used for insulating flat roofs and facades, cast-in-place floors, curtain and external basement walls, as well as for sound insulation of floors, are presented. The creep strain tests were conducted under a compressive stress of σ c =0.35 σ 10%. Interval forecasting of creep strain was made by extrapolating the creep behaviour and approximated in accordance with EN 1606 by a power equation and reduced to a linear form using logarithms. This was performed for a lead time of 10 years. The extension of the range of the confidence interval due to discount of the prediction data, i.e. a decrease in their informativity was allowed for by an additional coefficient. Analysis of the experimental data obtained from the tests having 65 and 122 days duration showed that the prediction of creep strains for 10 years can be made based on data obtained in experiments with durations shorter than the 122 days as specified by EN 13162. Interval prediction of creep strains (with a confidence probability of 90%) was based on using the mean square deviation of the actual direct observations of creep strains in logarithmic form to have the linear trend in a retrospective area.

Impact of Northern Hemisphere polar gateways on the Arctic Ocean climate during the latest Cretaceous as simulated by an Earth System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niezgodzki, Igor; Knorr, Gregor; Lohmann, Gerrit; Tyszka, Jarosław

2017-04-01

Using the Earth System Model COSMOS, we simulate the Late Cretaceous climate with different gateway configurations in the Arctic Ocean region under constant CO2 level of 1120 ppm (4 x pre-industrial). Based on the Maastrichtian paleogeography, we modify gateway configurations in the Arctic region according to different scenarios recorded from the Campanian - Maastrichtian ( 83-66 Ma). Our simulation with the Greenland-Norwegian Sea even as deep as 1.5 km in the Campanian produces consistent salinities in the Greenland-Norwegian Sea and in the surface Arctic Ocean, with the proxy-based salinity reconstructions. Towards the end of the Maastrichtian the gateway became shallower but didn't close entirely before the K-Pg boundary. During entire interval, the simulated salinity in the Arctic Ocean was well stratified, in agreement with the data. The surface ocean became progressively fresher, starting from the moderately brackish conditions in the Campanian to the (almost) freshwater conditions around the K-Pg boundary. Arctic gateways configuration changes cannot reproduce cooling trends as reconstructed by the proxy data during the Campanian - Maastrichtian interval. Our additional sensitivity tests with the different CO2 levels (1-6 x pre-industrial) and fixed (Maastrichtian) paleogeography show that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 560 ppm to 1120 ppm results in an increase in the zonal mean surface air temperature in the polar regions by as high as 10°C. This suggests that the CO2 level decline, rather than gateway configuration changes, was responsible for the cooling trend toward the end of the Maastrichtian. The research was supported from the grant of the National Science Center in Poland based on the decision DEC-2012/07/N/ST10/03419.

Improved survival after stroke: is admission to hospital the major explanation? Trend analyses of the Auckland Regional Community Stroke Studies.

PubMed

Carter, Kristie N; Anderson, Craig S; Hackett, Maree L; Barber, P Alan; Bonita, Ruth

2007-01-01

There is uncertainty regarding the impact of changes in stroke care and natural history of stroke in the community. We examined factors responsible for trends in survival after stroke in a series of population-based studies. We used statistical models to assess temporal trends in 28-day and 1-year case fatality after first-ever stroke cases registered in 3 stroke incidence studies undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand, over uniform 12-month calendar periods in 1981-1982 (n = 1,030), 1991-1992 (1,305) and 2001-2002 (1,423). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the significance of pre-defined 'patient', 'disease' and 'service/care' factors on these trends. Overall, there was a 40% decline in 28-day case fatality after stroke over the study periods, from 32% (95% confidence interval, 29-35%) in 1981-1982 to 23% (21-25%) in 1991-1992 and then 19% (17-21%) in 2002-2003. Similar relative declines were seen in 1-year case fatality. In regression models, the trends were still significant after adjusting for patient and disease factors. However, further adjustment for care factors (higher hospital admission and neuroimaging) explained most of the improvement in survival. These data show significant downwards trends in case fatality after stroke in Auckland over 20 years, which can largely be attributed to improved stroke care associated with increases in hospital admission and brain imaging during the acute phase of the illness.

Modest overall survival improvements from 1998 to 2009 in metastatic gastric cancer patients: a population-based SEER analysis.

PubMed

Ebinger, Sabrina M; Warschkow, René; Tarantino, Ignazio; Schmied, Bruno M; Güller, Ulrich; Schiesser, Marc

2016-07-01

An increasing fraction of gastric cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. The objective of the present 11-year population-based trend analysis was to assess the survival rates in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. Patients with metastatic gastric cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1998 and 2009. Time trend and impact of palliative gastrectomy on survival were assessed by both a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching. We identified 8249 patients with stage IV gastric cancer. The rate of metastatic disease increased from 31.0 % in 1998 to 37.5 % in 2009 (P < 0.001). The palliative gastrectomy rate dropped from 18.8 to 10.2 % (P = 0.004). The median survival for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (N = 1445, 17.4 %) and for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy (N = 6804, 82.4 %) was 7 and 3 months, respectively. There was an increase in median overall survival from 2 months (1998) to 3 months (2009) in the no-gastrectomy group, and from 6.5 to 8 months in the gastrectomy group. The 3-year cancer-specific survival rates were 2.1 % (95 % confidence interval 1.7-2.5 %) for patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy and 9.4 % (95 % confidence interval 7.8-11.2 %) for patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy (P < 0.001). Palliative gastrectomy was associated with an increased cancer-specific survival in propensity-score-adjusted Cox regression analyses (hazard ratio 0.50, 95 % confidence interval 0.46-0.55, P < 0.001). On a population-based level, only modest improvements in prognosis for metastatic gastric cancer were observed in patients who underwent and in patients who did not undergo palliative gastrectomy. Considering the low rate of midterm survivors in both groups, only a small subgroup of patients benefits from palliative gastrectomy.

Trend analysis of annual precipitation of Mauritius for the period 1981-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raja, Nussaïbah B.; Aydin, Olgu

2018-04-01

This study researched the precipitation variability across 53 meteorological stations in Mauritius and different subregions of the island, over a 30-year study period (1981-2010). Time series was investigated for each 5-year interval and also for the whole study period. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho statistical tests were used to detect trends in annual precipitation. A mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends was highlighted for the 5-year interval analysis. The statistical tests nevertheless agreed on the overall trend for Mauritius and the subregions. Most regions showed a decrease in precipitation during the period 1996-2000. This is attributed to the 1998-2000 drought period which was brought about by a moderate La Niña event. In general, an increase in precipitation levels was observed across the country during the study period. This increase is the result of an increase in extreme precipitation events in the region. On the other hand, two subregions, both located in the highlands, experienced a decline in precipitation levels. Since most of the reservoirs in Mauritius are located in these two subregions, this implies serious consequences for water availability in the country if existing storage capacities are kept.

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Age- and gender-specific time trend in risk of death of patients admitted with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Bots, Michiel L; Rinkel, Gabriël J E

2013-10-01

In a meta-analysis of population-based studies, case-fatality rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage have decreased worldwide by 17% between 1973 and 2002. However, age- and gender-specific decreases could not be determined. Because >10% of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage die before reaching the hospital, this suggests that the prognosis for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients has improved even more. We assessed age- and gender-specific time trends of the risk of death for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. From the Dutch hospital discharge register (nationwide coverage), we identified 9403 patients admitted with subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2006. Changes in risk of death within this time frame and influence of age and gender were quantified with Poisson regression. The overall 30-day risk of death was 34.0% (95% confidence interval 33.1 ↔ 35.0%). After adjustment for age and gender, the annual decrease was 1.6% (95% confidence interval 0.5 ↔ 2.6%), which confers to a decrease of 13.4% (95% confidence interval 4.8 ↔ 21.2%) in the study period. The one-year risk of death decreased 2.0% per year (95% confidence interval 1.1 ↔ 2.9%). The decrease in risk of death was mainly found in the period 2003-2005, was not found for patients ≥ 65 years and was statistically significant for men, but not for women. The decrease in risk of death for patients admitted in the Netherlands with subarachnoid hemorrhage is overall considerable, but unevenly distributed over age and gender. Further research should focus on reasons for improved survival (improved diagnostics, improved treatment) and reasons why improvement has not occurred for women and for patients in older age categories. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Emerging Trends of HIV Drug Resistance in Chinese HIV-Infected Patients Receiving First-Line Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Huixin; Ma, Ye; Su, Yingying; Smith, M. Kumi; Liu, Ying; Jin, Yantao; Gu, Hongqiu; Wu, Jing; Zhu, Lin; Wang, Ning

2014-01-01

Background. Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has led to a dramatic decrease in AIDS-related morbidity and mortality through sustained suppression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replication and reconstitution of the immune response. Settings like China that experienced rapid HAART rollout and relatively limited drug selection face considerable challenges in controlling HIV drug resistance (DR). Methods. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to describe trends in emergent HIV DR to first-line HAART among Chinese HIV-infected patients, as reflected in the point prevalence of HIV DR at key points and fixed intervals after treatment initiation, using data from cohort studies and cross-sectional studies respectively. Results. Pooled prevalence of HIV DR from longitudinal cohorts studies was 10.79% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.85%–19.07%) after 12 months of HAART and 80.58% (95% CI, 76.6%–84.02%) after 72 months of HAART. The HIV DR prevalence from cross-sectional studies was measured in treatment intervals; during the 0–12-month HAART treatment interval, the pooled prevalence of HIV DR was 11.1% (95% CI, 7.49%–16.14%), which increased to 22.92% at 61–72 months (95% CI, 9.45%–45.86%). Stratified analyses showed that patients receiving a didanosine-based regimen had higher HIV DR prevalence than those not taking didanosine (15.82% vs 4.97%). Patients infected through former plasma donation and those receiving AIDS treatment at village clinics had higher HIV DR prevalence than those infected through sexual transmission or treated at a county-level hospital. Conclusions. Our findings indicate higher prevalence of HIV DR for patients with longer cumulative HAART exposure, highlighting important subgroups for future HIV DR surveillance and control. PMID:25053721

Ambient temperature and FIT performance in the Emilia-Romagna colorectal cancer screening programme.

PubMed

De Girolamo, Gianfranco; Goldoni, Carlo A; Corradini, Rossella; Giuliani, Orietta; Falcini, Fabio; Sassoli De'Bianchi, Priscilla; Naldoni, Carlo; Zauli Sajani, Stefano

2016-12-01

To assess the impact of ambient temperature on faecal immunochemical test (FIT) performance in the colorectal cancer screening programme of Emilia-Romagna (Italy). A population-based retrospective cohort study on data from 2005 to 2011. Positive rate, detection rate, and positive predictive value rate for cancers and adenomas, and incidence rate of interval cancers after negative tests were analysed using Poisson regression models. In addition to ambient temperature, gender, age, screening history, and Local Health Unit were also considered. In 1,521,819 tests analysed, the probability of a positive result decreased linearly with increasing temperature. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals were estimated for six temperature classes (<5, 5 |-10, 10 |-15, 15 |-20, 20|-25 and ≥25℃), and referred to the 5|-10℃ class. The positive rate ratio was significantly related to temperature increase: 0.99 (0.97-1.02), 1, 0.98 (0.96-1.00), 0.96 (0.94-0.99), 0.93 (0.91-0.96), 0.92 (0.89-0.95). A linear trend was also evident for advanced adenoma detection rate ratio: 1.00 (0.96-1.04), 1, 0.98 (0.93-1.02), 0.96 (0.92-1.00), 0.92 (0.88-0.96), 0.94 (0.88-1.01). The effect was less linear, but still important, for cancer detection rates: 0.95 (0.85-1.06), 1, 1.00 (0.90-1.10), 0.94 (0.85-1.05), 0.81 (0.72-0.92), 0.93 (0.80-1.09). No association or linear trend was found for positive predictive values or risk of interval cancer, despite an excess of +16% in the highest temperature class for interval cancer. Ambient temperatures can affect screening performance. Continued monitoring is needed to verify the effect of introducing FIT tubes with a new buffer, which should guarantee a higher stability of haemoglobin. © The Author(s) 2016.

Effects of childhood body size on breast cancer tumour characteristics

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Introduction Although a role of childhood body size in postmenopausal breast cancer risk has been established, less is known about its influence on tumour characteristics. Methods We studied the relationships between childhood body size and tumour characteristics in a Swedish population-based case-control study consisting of 2,818 breast cancer cases and 3,111 controls. Our classification of childhood body size was derived from a nine-level somatotype. Relative risks were estimated by odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals, derived from fitting unconditional logistic regression models. Association between somatotype at age 7 and tumour characteristics were evaluated in a case-only analysis where P values for heterogeneity were obtained by performing one degree of freedom trend tests. Results A large somatotype at age 7 was found to be associated with decreased postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Although strongly associated with other risk factors such as age of menarche, adult body mass index and mammographic density, somatotype at age 7 remained a significant protective factor (odds ratio (OR) comparing large to lean somatotype at age 7 = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-0.91, P trend = 0.004) after adjustment. The significant protective effect was observed within all subgroups defined by estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) status, with a stronger effect for ER-negative (0.40, 95% CI = 0.21-0.75, P trend = 0.002), than for ER-positive (0.80, 95% CI = 0.62-1.05, P trend = 0.062), tumours (P heterogeneity = 0.046). Somatotype at age 7 was not associated with tumour size, histology, grade or the presence or absence of metastatic nodes. Conclusions Greater body size at age 7 is associated with a decreased risk of postmenopausal breast cancer, and the associated protective effect is stronger for the ER-negative breast cancer subtype than for the ER-positive subtype. PMID:20398298

Decreased term and postterm birthweight in the United States: impact of labor induction.

PubMed

Zhang, Xun; Joseph, K S; Kramer, Michael S

2010-08-01

We sought to assess recent trends in falling mean birthweight (BW) and gestational age (GA) among US non-Hispanic white singleton live births >or=37 weeks of gestation and the contribution of increased rates of induction to these trends. This was an ecological study based on US vital statistics from 1992 through 2003. From 1992 through 2003, mean BW fell by 37 g, mean GA by 3 days, and macrosomia rates by 25%. Rates of induction nearly doubled from 14% to 27%. Our ecological state-level analysis showed that the increased rate of induction was significantly associated with reduced mean BW (r = -0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.71 to -0.29), mean GA (r = -0.44; 95% CI, -0.65 to -0.17), and rate of macrosomia (r = -0.55; 95% CI, -0.74 to -0.32). Increasing use of induction is a likely cause of the observed recent declines in BW and GA. The impact of these trends on infant and long-term health warrants attention and investigation. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical approach to the analysis of olive long-term pollen season trends in southern Spain.

PubMed

García-Mozo, H; Yaezel, L; Oteros, J; Galán, C

2014-03-01

Analysis of long-term airborne pollen counts makes it possible not only to chart pollen-season trends but also to track changing patterns in flowering phenology. Changes in higher plant response over a long interval are considered among the most valuable bioindicators of climate change impact. Phenological-trend models can also provide information regarding crop production and pollen-allergen emission. The interest of this information makes essential the election of the statistical analysis for time series study. We analysed trends and variations in the olive flowering season over a 30-year period (1982-2011) in southern Europe (Córdoba, Spain), focussing on: annual Pollen Index (PI); Pollen Season Start (PSS), Peak Date (PD), Pollen Season End (PSE) and Pollen Season Duration (PSD). Apart from the traditional Linear Regression analysis, a Seasonal-Trend Decomposition procedure based on Loess (STL) and an ARIMA model were performed. Linear regression results indicated a trend toward delayed PSE and earlier PSS and PD, probably influenced by the rise in temperature. These changes are provoking longer flowering periods in the study area. The use of the STL technique provided a clearer picture of phenological behaviour. Data decomposition on pollination dynamics enabled the trend toward an alternate bearing cycle to be distinguished from the influence of other stochastic fluctuations. Results pointed to show a rising trend in pollen production. With a view toward forecasting future phenological trends, ARIMA models were constructed to predict PSD, PSS and PI until 2016. Projections displayed a better goodness of fit than those derived from linear regression. Findings suggest that olive reproductive cycle is changing considerably over the last 30years due to climate change. Further conclusions are that STL improves the effectiveness of traditional linear regression in trend analysis, and ARIMA models can provide reliable trend projections for future years taking into account the internal fluctuations in time series. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of supplemental oxygen on post-exercise inflammatory response and oxidative stress.

PubMed

White, Jodii; Dawson, Brian; Landers, Grant; Croft, Kevin; Peeling, Peter

2013-04-01

This investigation explored the influence of supplemental oxygen administered during the recovery periods of an interval-based running session on the post-exercise markers of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and inflammation. Ten well-trained male endurance athletes completed two sessions of 10 × 3 min running intervals at 85 % of the maximal oxygen consumption velocity (vVO(2)peak) on a motorised treadmill. A 90-s recovery period was given between each interval, during which time the participants were administered either a hyperoxic (HYP) (Fraction of Inspired Oxygen (FIO2) 99.5 %) or normoxic (NORM) (FIO2 21 %) gas, in a randomized, single-blind fashion. Pulse oximetry (SpO(2)), heart rate (HR), blood lactate (BLa), perceived exertion (RPE), and perceived recovery (TQRper) were recorded during each trial. Venous blood samples were taken pre-exercise, post-exercise and 1 h post-exercise to measure Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Isoprostanes (F2-IsoP). The S(p)O(2) was significantly lower than baseline following all interval repetitions in both experimental trials (p < 0.05). The S(p)O(2) recovery time was significantly quicker in the HYP when compared to the NORM (p < 0.05), with a trend for improved perceptual recovery. The IL-6 and F2-IsoP were significantly elevated immediately post-exercise, but had significantly decreased by 1 h post-exercise in both trials (p < 0.05). There were no differences in IL-6 or F2-IsoP levels between trials. Supplemental oxygen provided during the recovery periods of interval based exercise improves the recovery time of SPO(2) but has no effect on post-exercise ROS or inflammatory responses.

Quality of diet and mortality among Japanese men and women: Japan Public Health Center based prospective study

PubMed Central

Akter, Shamima; Kashino, Ikuko; Goto, Atsushi; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between adherence to the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top and total and cause specific mortality. Design Large scale population based prospective cohort study in Japan with follow-up for a median of 15 years. Setting 11 public health centre areas across Japan. Participants 36 624 men and 42 970 women aged 45-75 who had no history of cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, or chronic liver disease. Main outcome measures Deaths and causes of death identified with the residential registry and death certificates. Results Higher scores on the food guide (better adherence) were associated with lower total mortality; the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of total mortality for the lowest through highest scores were 1.00, 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97), 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93), and 0.85 (0.79 to 0.91) (P<0.001 for trend) and the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio associated with a 10 point increase in food guide scores was 0.93 (0.91 to 0.95; P<0.001 for trend). This score was inversely associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio associated with a 10 point increase 0.93, 0.89 to 0.98; P=0.005 for trend) and particularly from cerebrovascular disease (0.89, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.002 for trend). There was some evidence, though not significant, of an inverse association for cancer mortality (0.96, 0.93 to 1.00; P=0.053 for trend). Conclusion Closer adherence to Japanese dietary guidelines was associated with a lower risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular disease, particularly from cerebrovascular disease, in Japanese adults. PMID:27005903

Differential Scavenging Among Pig, Rabbit, and Human Subjects.

PubMed

Steadman, Dawnie Wolfe; Dautartas, Angela; Kenyhercz, Michael W; Jantz, Lee M; Mundorff, Amy; Vidoli, Giovanna M

2018-04-12

Different animal species have been used as proxies for human remains in decomposition studies for decades, although few studies have sought to validate their use in research aimed at estimating the postmortem interval. This study examines 45 pig, rabbit, and human subjects placed in three seasonal trials at the Anthropology Research Facility. In an earlier paper, we found that overall decomposition trends did vary between species that could be due to differential insect and scavenger behavior. This study specifically examines if scavenger behavior differs by carrion species. Daily photographs, game camera photographs, written observations, and Total Body Score (TBS) documented scavenging and decomposition changes. Results show that raccoons were the most commonly observed vertebrate scavenger, that scavenging was most extensive in winter, and that certain human subjects were preferred over other humans and all non-human subjects. Finally, scavenging activity greatly reduces the accuracy of postmortem interval estimates based on TBS. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Mortality rates for stroke in England from 1979 to 2004: trends, diagnostic precision, and artifacts.

PubMed

Goldacre, Michael J; Duncan, Marie; Griffith, Myfanwy; Rothwell, Peter M

2008-08-01

Stroke mortality appears to be declining more rapidly in the UK than in many other Western countries. To understand this apparent decline better, we studied trends in mortality in the UK using more detailed data than are routinely available. Analysis of datasets that include both the underlying cause and all other mentioned causes of death (together, termed "all mentions"): the Oxford Record Linkage Study from 1979 to 2004 and English national data from 1996 to 2004. Mortality rates based on underlying cause and based on all mentions showed similar downward trends. Mortality based on underlying cause alone misses about one quarter of all stroke-related deaths. Changes during the period in the national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death had a significant but fairly small effect on the trend. Overall, mortality fell by an average annual rate of 2.3% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 2.5%) for stroke excluding subarachnoid hemorrhage; and by 2.1% (1.7% to 2.6%) per annum for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Coding of stroke as hemorrhagic, occlusive, or unspecified varied substantially across the study period. As a result, rates for hemorrhagic and occlusive stroke, affected by artifact, seemed to fall substantially in the first part of the study period and then leveled off. Studies of stroke mortality should include all mentions as well as the certified underlying cause, otherwise the burden of stroke will be underestimated. Studies of stroke mortality that include strokes specified as hemorrhagic or occlusive, without also considering stroke overall, are likely to be misleading. Stroke mortality in the Oxford region halved between 1979 and 2004.

Evidence for local and global redox conditions at an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian) mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Cole T.; Fike, David A.; Saltzman, Matthew R.; Lu, Wanyi; Lu, Zunli

2018-01-01

Profound changes in environmental conditions, particularly atmospheric oxygen levels, are thought to be important drivers of several major biotic events (e.g. mass extinctions and diversifications). The early Paleozoic represents a key interval in the oxygenation of the ocean-atmosphere system and evolution of the biosphere. Global proxies (e.g. carbon (δ13C) and sulfur (δ34S) isotopes) are used to diagnose potential changes in oxygenation and infer causes of environmental change and biotic turnover. The Cambrian-Ordovician contains several trilobite extinctions (some are apparently local, but others are globally correlative) that are attributed to anoxia based on coeval positive δ13C and δ34S excursions. These extinction and excursion events have yet to be coupled with more recently developed proxies thought to be more reflective of local redox conditions in the water column (e.g. I/Ca) to confirm whether these extinctions were associated with oxygen crises over a regional or global scale. Here we examine an Early Ordovician (Tremadocian Stage) extinction event previously interpreted to reflect a continuation of recurrent early Paleozoic anoxic events that expanded into nearshore environments. δ13C, δ34S, and I/Ca trends were measured from three sections in the Great Basin region to test whether I/Ca trends support the notion that anoxia was locally present in the water column along the Laurentian margin. Evidence for anoxia is based on coincident, but not always synchronous, positive δ13C and δ34S excursions (mainly from carbonate-associated sulfate and less so from pyrite data), a 30% extinction of standing generic diversity, and near-zero I/Ca values. Although evidence for local water column anoxia from the I/Ca proxy broadly agrees with intervals of global anoxia inferred from δ13C and δ34S trends, a more complex picture is evident where spatially and temporally variable local trends are superimposed on time-averaged global trends. Stratigraphic sections from the distal and deeper part of the basin (Shingle Pass and Meiklejohn Peak) preserve synchronous global (δ13C and δ34S) and water column (I/Ca) evidence for anoxia, but not at the more proximal section (Ibex, UT). Although geochemical and paleontological evidence point toward anoxia as the driver of this Early Ordovician extinction event, differences between I/Ca and δ13C-δ34S signals suggest regional variation in the timing, extent, and persistence of anoxia.

Dose-dependent protective effect of breast-feeding against breast cancer among ever-lactated women in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Yeonju; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Lee, Kyoung-Mu; Park, Sue Kyung; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Noh, Dong-Young; Hong, Yun-Chul; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young

2007-04-01

Lactation might have a crucial role in an extraordinary increase in breast cancer incidence in Korea, as the proportion of mothers who practised breast-feeding fell dramatically. This hospital-based case-control analysis has been carried out since 1997 to evaluate whether lactation is associated with breast cancer risk in Korean women. Among the eligible study participants, a total of 753 histologically confirmed incident cases and an equal number of controls were included in the analysis. The risk was estimated using unconditional logistic regression models. Family history, older at menopause, more full-term pregnancies increased the risk of breast cancer. Breast cancer risk decreased according to the total months of breast-feeding (P for trend=0.03). Average duration of breast-feeding of 11-12 months reduced risk of breast cancer by 54% compared with the duration of 1-4 months (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-0.70). The decreasing risk trend according to average months of breast-feeding was also statistically significant (P for trend=0.02). Moreover, a reduced risk of breast cancer was apparent when analysis was restricted to the first breast-fed child (P for trend=0.006). This study confirms that lactation has an apparent dose-dependent protective effect against breast cancer in Korean women.

Trends in hospitalizations of pregnant HIV-infected women in the United States: 2004 through 2011.

PubMed

Ewing, Alexander C; Datwani, Hema M; Flowers, Lisa M; Ellington, Sascha R; Jamieson, Denise J; Kourtis, Athena P

2016-10-01

With the development and widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy, HIV-infected women live longer, healthier lives. Previous research has shown that, since the adoption of combination antiretroviral therapy in the United States, rates of morbidity and adverse obstetric outcomes remained higher for HIV-infected pregnant women compared with HIV-uninfected pregnant women. Monitoring trends in the outcomes these women experience is essential, as recommendations for this special population continue to evolve with the progress of HIV treatment and prevention options. We conducted an analysis comparing rates of hospitalizations and associated outcomes among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected pregnant women in the United States from 2004 through 2011. We used cross-sectional hospital discharge data for girls and women age 15-49 from the 2004, 2007, and 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a nationally representative sample of US hospital discharges. Demographic characteristics, morbidity outcomes, and time trends were compared using χ(2) tests and multivariate logistic regression. Analyses were weighted to produce national estimates. In 2011, there were 4751 estimated pregnancy hospitalizations and 3855 delivery hospitalizations for HIV-infected pregnant women; neither increased since 2004. Compared with those of HIV-uninfected women, pregnancy hospitalizations of HIV-infected women were more likely to be longer, be in the South and Northeast, be covered by public insurance, and incur higher charges (all P < .005). Hospitalizations among pregnant women with HIV infection had higher rates for many adverse outcomes. Compared to 2004, hospitalizations of HIV-infected pregnant women in 2011 had higher odds of gestational diabetes (adjusted odds ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.84), preeclampsia/hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-2.24), viral/mycotic/parasitic infections (adjusted odds ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-2.14), and bacterial infections (adjusted odds ratio, 2.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-4.20). Bacterial infections did not increase among hospitalizations of HIV-uninfected pregnant women. The numbers of hospitalizations during pregnancy and delivery have not increased for HIV-infected women since 2004, a departure from previously estimated trends. Pregnancy hospitalizations of HIV-infected women remain more medically complex than those of HIV-uninfected women. An increasing trend in infections among the delivery hospitalizations of HIV-infected pregnant women warrant further attention. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Multiple Independent Genetic Factors at NOS1AP Modulate the QT Interval in a Multi-Ethnic Population

PubMed Central

Arking, Dan E.; Khera, Amit; Xing, Chao; Kao, W. H. Linda; Post, Wendy; Boerwinkle, Eric; Chakravarti, Aravinda

2009-01-01

Extremes of electrocardiographic QT interval are associated with increased risk for sudden cardiac death (SCD); thus, identification and characterization of genetic variants that modulate QT interval may elucidate the underlying etiology of SCD. Previous studies have revealed an association between a common genetic variant in NOS1AP and QT interval in populations of European ancestry, but this finding has not been extended to other ethnic populations. We sought to characterize the effects of NOS1AP genetic variants on QT interval in the multi-ethnic population-based Dallas Heart Study (DHS, n = 3,072). The SNP most strongly associated with QT interval in previous samples of European ancestry, rs16847548, was the most strongly associated in White (P = 0.005) and Black (P = 3.6×10−5) participants, with the same direction of effect in Hispanics (P = 0.17), and further showed a significant SNP × sex-interaction (P = 0.03). A second SNP, rs16856785, uncorrelated with rs16847548, was also associated with QT interval in Blacks (P = 0.01), with qualitatively similar results in Whites and Hispanics. In a previously genotyped cohort of 14,107 White individuals drawn from the combined Atherosclerotic Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) cohorts, we validated both the second locus at rs16856785 (P = 7.63×10−8), as well as the sex-interaction with rs16847548 (P = 8.68×10−6). These data extend the association of genetic variants in NOS1AP with QT interval to a Black population, with similar trends, though not statistically significant at P<0.05, in Hispanics. In addition, we identify a strong sex-interaction and the presence of a second independent site within NOS1AP associated with the QT interval. These results highlight the consistent and complex role of NOS1AP genetic variants in modulating QT interval. PMID:19180230

Trends in incidence and early outcomes in a Black Afro-Caribbean population from 1999 to 2012: Etude Réalisée en Martinique et Centrée sur l'Incidence des Accidents Vasculaires Cérébraux II Study.

PubMed

Olindo, Stephane; Chausson, Nicolas; Mejdoubi, Mehdi; Jeannin, Severine; Rosillette, Karine; Saint-Vil, Martine; Signate, Aissatou; Edimonana-Kaptue, Mireille; Larraillet, Veronique; Cabre, Philippe; Smadja, Didier; Joux, Julien

2014-11-01

Seldom studies are available on trends in stroke incidence in blacks. We aimed to evaluate whether stroke risk prevention policies modified first-ever stroke incidence and outcomes in the black Afro-Caribbean population of Martinique. Etude Réalisée en Martinique et Centrée sur l'Incidence des Accidents Vasculaires Cérébraux (ERMANCIA) I and II are 2 sequential prospective population-based epidemiological studies. There have assessed temporal trends in first-ever stroke incidence, risk factors, pathological types, and early outcomes in the black Afro-Caribbean population of Martinique comparing two 12-month periods (1998-1999 and 2011-2012). Crude and age-standardized incidence and 30-day outcomes for stroke in the 2 study periods were compared using Poisson regression. We identified 580 and 544 first-ever strokes in the 2 studies. World age-standardized incidence rates decreased by 30.6% in overall (111 [95% confidence interval, 102-120] versus 77 [95% confidence interval, 70-84]). Rate decline was greater in women than in men (34% versus 26%) particularly in women aged 65 to 74 years (-69%) and 75 to 84 years (-43%). Frequencies of hypertension and diabetes mellitus were unchanged, whereas dyslipidemia, smoking, and atrial fibrillation significantly increased. Only ischemic stroke types showed significant rate reduction in overall and in women, incidence rate ratio (95% confidence intervals) of 0.69 (0.50-0.97) and 0.61 (0.42-0.88), respectively. The overall 30-day case-fatality ratio remained stable (19.3%/17.6%), whereas a better 30-day outcome was found (modified Rankin Score, ≤2 in 47%/37.6%; P=0.03). Over 13 years, there has been a significant decrease (30.6%) in the age-specific first-ever stroke incidence in our Afro-Carribean population. Although prevention policies seem effective, we need to focus on new risk factors limitation and on male population adherence to prevention program. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Metastasis-free interval in breast cancer patients: Thirty-year trends and time dependency of prognostic factors. A retrospective analysis based on a single institution experience.

PubMed

Houzé de l'Aulnoit, A; Rogoz, B; Pinçon, C; Houzé de l'Aulnoit, D

2018-02-01

Breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in French women in spite of continuously improving management. The objectives of this study were to analyse trends in the metastasis-free interval over the past 30 years and to identify the prognostic factors of survival, while accounting for time dependency. A total of 1613 patients diagnosed with invasive non-metastatic breast cancer at Saint Vincent de Paul Hospital, Lille, France between 1977 and 2013, were followed for outcome (metastasis-free interval). Cohort entry time delay, a continuous temporal covariate, was defined to assess improvement of outcome. Data were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and presented as hazard ratio (HR). Metastatic disease developed during follow-up in 446 (27.6%) patients. Cohort entry time delay exhibited strong independent prognostic value while accounting for multiple prognostic factors including: tumour size (HR = 1.62, 95 %CI 1.37-1.91); rapid tumour growth (HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.17-2.16); lymph node ratio (HR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.97-2.66); histological grade (grade 2 was significant only during the first 10 years after diagnosis, grade 3 and progesterone receptor status only during the first 5 years after diagnosis); and oestrogen receptor status (significant only during the first 8 years (HR = 0.75, 95%CI 0.58-0.96)). The current study showed an improvement in the prognosis of breast cancer patients over the past 30 years and pointed to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association Between Serum 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Levels and Blood Pressure Among Adolescents in Two Resource-Limited Settings in Peru

PubMed Central

Tomaino, Katherine; Romero, Karina M.; Robinson, Colin L.; Baumann, Lauren M.; Hansel, Nadia N.; Pollard, Suzanne L.; Gilman, Robert H.; Mougey, Edward; Lima, John J.

2015-01-01

INTRODUCTION Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) deficiency (<50 nmol/l or 20ng/ml) has been associated with increased blood pressure (BP) in observational studies. A paucity of data on this relationship is available in Latin American or child populations. This study investigates the association between 25OHD levels and BP in adolescents at risk for vitamin D deficiency in 2 Peruvian settings. METHODS In a population-based study of 1,441 Peruvian adolescents aged 13–15 years, 1,074 (75%) provided a serum blood sample for 25OHD analysis and BP measurements. Relationships between 25OHD and BP metrics were assessed using multiple linear regressions, adjusted for anthropometrics and sociodemographic factors. RESULTS 25OHD deficiency was associated with an elevated diastolic BP (DBP) (1.09mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.04 to 2.14; P = 0.04) compared to nondeficient adolescents. Systolic BP (SBP) trended to increase with vitamin D deficiency (1.30mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: −0.13 to 2.72; P = 0.08). Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was also greater in adolescents with 25OHD (1.16mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.10 to 2.22; P = 0.03). SBP was found to demonstrate a U-shaped relationship with 25OHD, while DBP and MAP demonstrated inverse J-shaped relationships with serum 25OHD status. The association between 25OHD deficiency and BP was not different across study sites (all P ≥ 0.19). DISCUSSION Adolescents deficient in 25OHD demonstrated increased DBP and MAP and a trend toward increased SBP, when compared to nondeficient subjects. 25OHD deficiency early in life was associated with elevated BP metrics, which may predispose risk of hypertension later in adulthood. PMID:25600222

Temporal trends in the occurrence and outcomes of atrial fibrillation in patients with acute myocardial infarction (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Surveillance Study).

PubMed

Bengtson, Lindsay G S; Chen, Lin Y; Chamberlain, Alanna M; Michos, Erin D; Whitsel, Eric A; Lutsey, Pamela L; Duval, Sue; Rosamond, Wayne D; Alonso, Alvaro

2014-09-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexists in the setting of myocardial infarction (MI), being associated with increased mortality. Nonetheless, temporal trends in the occurrence of AF complicating MI and in the prognosis of these patients are not well described. We examined temporal trends in prevalence of AF in the setting of MI and the effect of AF on prognosis in the community. We studied a population-based sample of 20,049 validated first-incident nonfatal hospitalized MIs among 35- to 74-year old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study from 1987 through 2009. Prevalence of AF in the setting of MI increased from 11% to 15% during the 23-year study period. The multivariable adjusted odds ratio for prevalent AF, per 5-year increment, was 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.19). Overall, in patients with MI, AF was associated with increased 1-year case fatality (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.01) compared with those without AF. However, there was no evidence that the impact of AF on MI survival changed over time or differed over time by sex, race, or MI classification (all p values >0.10). In conclusion, co-occurrence of AF in MI slightly increased between 1987 and 2009. The adverse impact of AF on survival in the setting of MI was consistent throughout. In the setting of MI, co-occurrence of AF should be viewed as a critical clinical event, and treatment needs unique to this population should be explored further. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal Trends in Sex Differences With Regard to Stroke Incidence: The Dijon Stroke Registry (1987-2012).

PubMed

Giroud, Marie; Delpont, Benoit; Daubail, Benoit; Blanc, Christelle; Durier, Jérôme; Giroud, Maurice; Béjot, Yannick

2017-04-01

We evaluated temporal trends in stroke incidence between men and women to determine whether changes in the distribution of vascular risk factors have influenced sex differences in stroke epidemiology. Patients with first-ever stroke including ischemic stroke, spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and undetermined stroke between 1987 and 2012 were identified through the population-based registry of Dijon, France. Incidence rates were calculated for age groups, sex, and stroke subtypes. Sex differences and temporal trends (according to 5-year time periods) were evaluated by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with Poisson regression. Four thousand six hundred and fourteen patients with a first-ever stroke (53.1% women) were recorded. Incidence was lower in women than in men (112 versus 166 per 100 000/y; IRR, 0.68; P <0.001), especially in age group 45 to 84 years, and for both ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. From 1987 to 2012, the lower incidence of overall stroke in women was stable (IRR ranging between 0.63 and 0.72 according to study periods). When considering stroke subtype, a slight increase in the incidence of ischemic stroke was observed in both men (IRR, 1.011; 95% confidence interval, 1.005-1.016; P =0.001) and women (IRR, 1.013; 95% confidence interval, 1.007-1.018; P =0.001). The sex gap in incidence remained unchanged in ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage. Conversely, the lower subarachnoid hemorrhage incidence in women vanished with time because of an increasing incidence. The sex gap in stroke incidence did not change with time except for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Despite lower rates, more women than men experience an incident stroke each year because of a longer life expectancy. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hydrocarbon reservoirs of Gulf of Mexico: spatial and temporal distribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, P.K.

1988-02-01

The statistical distribution of over 12,000 producible hydrocarbon reservoirs from various biostratigraphic intervals of the Gulf of Mexico is presented. The average number, thickness, volume, subsurface depth, and ecozone of depositional environments of the reservoirs are grouped according to biostratigraphic intervals, trends, and geographic areas. The upper Pliocene and Pleistocene reservoirs account for more than 77% of the total number. Within the Miocene trend, Bigenerina H in the western Gulf and Bigenerina A and Bigenerina 2 in the central Gulf show significant concentration of reservoirs. The average depth of production for all trends gets deeper, both from west and east,more » toward Ship Shoal-South Timbalier areas. The average thickness varies slightly between trends; however, variation between areas is more significant. A significant majority of the reservoirs of all trends in the entire Gulf is reported from the outer shelf-upper slope ecozones (E3 and E4). According to volume, the E3-E5 reservoirs can be classified into three groups; (a) larger than 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, (b) 5000 to 10,000 acre-ft/reservoir, and (c) smaller than 5000 acre-ft/reservoir. The reservoirs of the middle Miocene trend of the central Gulf and lower Miocene of the western Gulf fall into group a, those of other trends of the western Gulf into group b, and the post-Amphistegina E reservoirs of the central Gulf into group c. Information obtained from this study, in combination with regional and detailed geological information, provides valuable input in further exploration of the matured shelf and scantily explored slope of the Gulf of Mexico.« less

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Estimating the Length of the North Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2012-01-01

For the interval 1945-2011, the length of the hurricane season in the North Atlantic basin averages about 130 +/- 42 days (the +/-1 standard deviation interval), having a range of 47 to 235 days. Runs-testing reveals that the annual length of season varies nonrandomly at the 5% level of significance. In particular, its trend, as described using 10-yr moving averages, generally has been upward since about 1979, increasing from about 113 to 157 days (in 2003). Based on annual values, one finds a highly statistically important inverse correlation at the 0.1% level of significance between the length of season and the occurrence of the first storm day of the season. For the 2012 hurricane season, based on the reported first storm day of May 19, 2012 (i.e., DOY = 140), the inferred preferential regression predicts that the length of the current season likely will be about 173 +/- 23 days, suggesting that it will end about November 8 +/- 23 days, with only about a 5% chance that it will end either before about September 23, 2012 or after about December 24, 2012.

Modeling the Trajectory of Analgesic Demand Over Time After Total Knee Arthroplasty Using the Latent Curve Analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Po-Han; Tsou, Mei-Yung; Chang, Kuang-Yi

2015-09-01

Patient-controlled epidural analgesia (PCEA) is commonly used for pain relief after total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study aimed to model the trajectory of analgesic demand over time after TKA and explore its influential factors using latent curve analysis. Data were retrospectively collected from 916 patients receiving unilateral or bilateral TKA and postoperative PCEA. PCEA demands during 12-hour intervals for 48 hours were directly retrieved from infusion pumps. Potentially influential factors of PCEA demand, including age, height, weight, body mass index, sex, and infusion pump settings, were also collected. A latent curve analysis with 2 latent variables, the intercept (baseline) and slope (trend), was applied to model the changes in PCEA demand over time. The effects of influential factors on these 2 latent variables were estimated to examine how these factors interacted with time to alter the trajectory of PCEA demand over time. On average, the difference in analgesic demand between the first and second 12-hour intervals was only 15% of that between the first and third 12-hour intervals. No significant difference in PCEA demand was noted between the third and fourth 12-hour intervals. Aging tended to decrease the baseline PCEA demand but body mass index and infusion rate were positively correlated with the baseline. Only sex significantly affected the trend parameter and male individuals tended to have a smoother decreasing trend of analgesic demands over time. Patients receiving bilateral procedures did not consume more analgesics than their unilateral counterparts. Goodness of fit analysis indicated acceptable model fit to the observed data. Latent curve analysis provided valuable information about how analgesic demand after TKA changed over time and how patient characteristics affected its trajectory.

Long-term coffee consumption and risk of cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Ding, Ming; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Satija, Ambika; van Dam, Rob M; Hu, Frank B

2014-02-11

Considerable controversy exists on the association between coffee consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the dose-response relationship of long-term coffee consumption with CVD risk. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies of the relationship between coffee consumption and CVD risk, which included coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and CVD mortality. Thirty-six studies were included with 1 279 804 participants and 36 352 CVD cases. A nonlinear relationship of coffee consumption with CVD risk was identified (P for heterogeneity=0.09, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001). Compared with the lowest category of coffee consumption (median, 0 cups per day), the relative risk of CVD was 0.95 (95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.03) for the highest category (median, 5 cups per day) category, 0.85 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.90) for the second highest category (median, 3.5 cups per day), and 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.94) for the third highest category (median, 1.5 cups per day). Looking at separate outcomes, coffee consumption was nonlinearly associated with both coronary heart disease (P for heterogeneity=0.001, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001) and stroke (P for heterogeneity=0.07, P for trend <0.001, P for nonlinearity <0.001; P for trend differences >0.05) risks. A nonlinear association between coffee consumption and CVD risk was observed in this meta-analysis. Moderate coffee consumption was inversely significantly associated with CVD risk, with the lowest CVD risk at 3 to 5 cups per day, and heavy coffee consumption was not associated with elevated CVD risk.

The development of an MRI lesion quantifying system for multiple sclerosis patients undergoing treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moin, Paymann; Ma, Kevin; Amezcua, Lilyana; Gertych, Arkadiusz; Liu, Brent

2009-02-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a demyelinating disease of the central nervous system that affects approximately 2.5 million people worldwide. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an established tool for the assessment of disease activity, progression and response to treatment. The progression of the disease is variable and requires routine follow-up imaging studies. Currently, MRI quantification of multiple sclerosis requires a manual approach to lesion measurement and yields an estimate of lesion volume and interval change. In the setting of several prior studies and a long treatment history, trends related to treatment change quickly become difficult to extrapolate. Our efforts seek to develop an imaging informatics based MS lesion computer aided detection (CAD) package to quantify and track MS lesions including lesion load, volume, and location. Together, with select clinical parameters, this data will be incorporated into an MS specific e- Folder to provide decision support to evaluate and assess treatment options for MS in a manner tailored specifically to an individual based on trends in MS presentation and progression.

Intertrial interval duration and learning in autistic children.

PubMed Central

Koegel, R L; Dunlap, G; Dyer, K

1980-01-01

This study investigated the influence of intertrial interval duration on the performance of autistic children during teaching situations. The children were taught under the same conditions existing in their regular programs, except that the length of time between trials was systematically manipulated. With both multiple baseline and repeated reversal designs, two lengths of intertrial interval were employed; short intervals with the SD for any given trial presented approximately one second following the reinforcer for the previous trial versus long intervals with the SD presented four or more seconds following the reinforcer for the previous trial. The results showed that: (1) the short intertrial intervals always produced higher levels of correct responding than the long intervals; and (2) there were improving trends in performance and rapid acquisition with the short intertrial intervals, in contrast to minimal or no change with the long intervals. The results are discussed in terms of utilizing information about child and task characteristics in terms of selecting optimal intervals. The data suggest that manipulations made between trials have a large influence on autistic children's learning. PMID:7364701

Mammography interval and breast cancer mortality in women over the age of 75.

PubMed

Simon, Michael S; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Thomson, Cynthia A; Ray, Roberta M; Hubbell, F Allan; Lessin, Lawrence; Lane, Dorothy S; Kuller, Lew H

2014-11-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship between mammography interval and breast cancer mortality among older women with breast cancer. The study population included 1,914 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer at age 75 or later during their participation in the Women's health initiative, with an average follow-up of 4.4 years (3.1 SD). Cause of death was based on medical record review. Mammography interval was defined as the time between the last self-reported mammogram 7 or more months prior to diagnosis, and the date of diagnosis. Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality were computed from Cox proportional hazards analyses. Prior mammograms were reported by 73.0 % of women from 7 months to ≤2 year of diagnosis (referent group), 19.4 % (>2 to <5 years), and 7.5 % (≥5 years or no prior mammogram). Women with the longest versus shortest intervals had more poorly differentiated (28.5 % vs. 22.7 %), advanced stage (25.7 % vs. 22.9 %), and estrogen receptor negative tumors (20.9 % vs. 13.1 %). Compared to the referent group, women with intervals of >2 to <5 years or ≥5 years had an increased risk of breast cancer mortality (HR 1.62, 95 % CI 1.03-2.54) and (HR 2.80, 95 % CI 1.57-5.00), respectively, p trend = 0.0002. There was no significant relationship between mammography interval and other causes of death. These results suggest a continued role for screening mammography among women 75 years of age and older.

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

1995-01-01

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Tea Consumption and Lung Cancer Risk: A Case‐Control Study in Okinawa, Japan

PubMed Central

Wakai, Kenji; Genka, Keiichiro; Ohmine, Keisho; Kawamura, Takashi; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Aoki, Rie; Senda, Masayo; Hayashi, Yutaka; Nagao, Keiichi; Fukutna, Seigo; Aoki, Kunio

1995-01-01

To disclose the relationship between tea consumption and lung cancer risk, we analyzed the data from a case‐control study conducted in Okinawa, Japan from 1988 to 1991. The analysis, based on 333 cases and 666 age‐, sex‐ and residence‐matched controls, provided the following major findings, (a) The greater the intake of Okinawan tea (a partially fermented tea), the smaller the risk, particularly in women. For females, the odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for those who consumed 1‐4, 5‐9, and 10 cups or more of Okinawan tea every day, relative to non‐daily tea drinkers, were 0.77 (0.28‐2.13), 0.77 (0.26‐2.25) and 0.38 (0.12‐1.18), respectively (trend: P=0.032). The corresponding odds ratios for males were 0.85 (0.46‐1.55), 0.85 (0.46‐1.56) and 0.57 (0.31‐1.06) (trend: P=0.053). (b) The risk reduction by Okinawan tea consumption was detected mainly in squamous cell carcinoma. Daily tea consumption significantly decreased the risk of squamous cell carcinoma in males and females, the odds ratios being 0.50 (95% confidence interval 0.27‐0.93) and 0.08 (0.01‐0.68), respectively. These findings suggest a protective effect of tea consumption against lung cancer in humans. PMID:8567392

100,000-year-long terrestrial record of millennial-scale linkage between eastern North American mid-latitude paleovegetation shifts and Greenland ice-core oxygen isotope trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Litwin, Ronald J.; Smoot, Joseph P.; Pavich, Milan J.; Markewich, Helaine Walsh; Brook, George; Durika, Nancy J.

2013-01-01

We document frequent, rapid, strong, millennial-scale paleovegetation shifts throughout the late Pleistocene, within a 100,000+ yr interval (~ 115–15 ka) of terrestrial sediments from the mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of North America. High-resolution analyses of fossil pollen from one core locality revealed a continuously shifting sequence of thermally dependent forest assemblages, ranging between two endmembers: subtropical oak-tupelo-bald cypress-gum forest and high boreal spruce-pine forest. Sedimentary textural evidence indicates fluvial, paludal, and loess deposition, and paleosol formation, representing sequential freshwater to subaerial environments in which this record was deposited. Its total age"depth model, based on radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence ages, ranges from terrestrial oxygen isotope stages (OIS) 6 to 1. The particular core sub-interval presented here is correlative in trend and timing to that portion of the oxygen isotope sequence common among several Greenland ice cores: interstades GI2 to GI24 (≈ OIS2–5 d). This site thus provides the first evidence for an essentially complete series of "Dansgaard"Oeschger" climate events in the MAR. These data reveal that the ~ 100,000 yr preceding the Late Glacial and Holocene in the MAR of North America were characterized by frequently and dynamically changing climate states, and by vegetation shifts that closely tracked the Greenland paleoclimate sequence.

Branched-chain amino acid intake and the risk of diabetes in a Japanese community: the Takayama study.

PubMed

Nagata, Chisato; Nakamura, Kozue; Wada, Keiko; Tsuji, Michiko; Tamai, Yuya; Kawachi, Toshiaki

2013-10-15

Dietary supplementation with branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), including leucine, isoleucine, and valine, has shown potential benefits for the metabolic profile. However, higher blood BCAA levels have been associated with insulin resistance. To our knowledge, there has been no study on dietary BCAAs and the risk of diabetes. We examined the association between BCAA intake and risk of diabetes in a population-based cohort study in Japan. A total of 13,525 residents of Takayama City, Japan, who enrolled in a cohort study in 1992 responded to a follow-up questionnaire seeking information about diabetes in 2002. Diet at baseline was assessed by means of a validated food frequency questionnaire. A high intake of BCAAs in terms of percentage of total protein was significantly associated with a decreased risk of diabetes in women after controlling for covariates; the hazard ratio for the highest tertile versus the lowest was 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.36, 0.90; P-trend = 0.02). In men, leucine intake was significantly marginally associated with the risk of diabetes; the hazard ratio for the highest tertile versus the lowest was 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.48, 1.02; P-trend = 0.06). Data suggest that a high intake of BCAAs may be associated with a decrease in the risk of diabetes.

Land-cover trends in the Mojave basin and range ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Raumann, Christian G.

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's Land-Cover Trends Project aims to estimate the rates of contemporary land-cover change within the conterminous United States between 1972 and 2000. A random sampling approach was used to select a representative sample of 10-km by 10-km sample blocks and to estimate change within +/- 1 percent at an 85-percent confidence interval. Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data were used, and each 60-m pixel was assigned to one of 11 distinct land-cover classes based upon a modified Anderson classification system. Upon completion of land-cover change mapping for five dates, land-cover change statistics were generated and analyzed. This paper presents estimates for the Mojave Basin and Range ecoregion located in the southwestern United States. Our research suggests land-cover change within the Mojave to be relatively rare and highly localized. The primary shift in land cover is unidirectional, with natural desert grass/shrubland being converted to development. We estimate that more than 1,300 km2 have been converted since 1973 and that the conversion is being largely driven by economic and recreational opportunities provided by the Mojave ecoregion. The time interval with the highest rate of change was 1986 to 1992, in which the rate was 0.21 percent (321.9 km2) per year total change.

Age trend of the male to female sex ratio in surgical gastric cancer patients at a single institution.

PubMed

Yu, Junxiu; He, Yongjun; Guo, Zhen

2014-08-21

In previous reports concerning the association between sex disparity and age, gastric cancer (GC) patients were simply divided into younger and older groups by age. We analyzed the age trend of the male to female sex ratio (MFSR) in GC based on patient sequential age in order to observe the changing process of MFSR with age. One thousand seven hundred fifty-one surgical gastric adenocarcinoma patients aged 26 to 85 years were investigated between January 1996 and December 2010. The patients were grouped by age intervals of 5 years. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to determine how the MFSR changed with age. The median age of the 1,751 patients with GC was 60 years (26 to 85 years). There were 1,334 male and 417 female patients (MFSR was 3.20). Cochran-Armitage trend test analysis showed that total MFSR increased significantly with age (Z = 5.964, P < 0.0001). Further studies on age groups of 26 to 60 years and 61 to 85 years were conducted. The trend test showed that MFSR increased significantly with age from 26 to 60 years (Z = 7.433, P < 0.0001). However, MFSR did not increase in ages 61 to 85 years (Z = -0.607, P = 0.544). MFSR in GC presented an increasing trend until 60 years of age. The male GC patients showed an increasing tendency, and female GC patients showed a decreasing tendency with age. This trend reached a plateau phase after 60 years of age.

The Trend in Histological Changes and the Incidence of Esophagus Cancer in Iran (2003-2008).

PubMed

Rafiemanesh, Hosein; Maleki, Farzad; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Salemi, Morteza; Salehiniya, Hamid

2016-01-01

Esophageal cancer is the sixth cause of death in the world, there was a lack of population-based information on the trend and incidence rate of esophagus cancer, so this study aimed to determine the incidence and pathological changes of esophagus cancer in Iran. In this study, data were extracted from annual cancer registry reports of Iranian ministry of health between 2003 and 2008. Standardized incidence rates were calculated using the world standard population, and incidence rate was calculated by age groups, sex, and histological type. Data on epidemiologic trend and histology were analyzed using Joinpoint software package. In this study, there were 18,177 recorded cases of esophagus cancer. Of all cases, 45.72% were females and 54.28% were males. Sex ratio was 1.19. The most common histological types related to squamous cell carcinoma NOS and adenocarcinoma NOS were 64.53% and 10.37%, respectively. The trend of annual changes of incidence rate significantly increased in both sexes. The annual percentage changes, the incidence rate was 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3-12.6) for women and 9.6 (95% CI: 6.0-13.2) for men. The histology type of SCC, large cell, nonkeratinizing and SCC, keratinizing and SCC, NOS had a significant decreasing trend in total population (P < 0.05). According to this study, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of esophagus cancer in Iran is rising. Hence, to prevent and control this cancer, it is necessary to investigate related risk factors and implement prevention programs in Iran.

Qualitative comparison of air temperature trends based on ncar/ncep reanalysis, model simulations and aerological observations data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinstein, K. G.; Khan, V. M.; Sterin, A. M.

In the present study we discuss two points. The first one is related with applicability of reanalysis data to investigating long-term climate variability. We present results of comparison of long term air temperature trends for the troposphere and the low stratosphere calculated using monthly averaged NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data on one hand and direct rawinsond observations from 443 stations on the other. The trends and other statistical characteristics are calculated for two overlapping time periods, namely 1964 through 1998, and 1979 through 1998. These two intervals were chosen in order to examine the influence of satellite observations on the reanalysis data, given that most satellite data have appeared after 1979. Vertical profiles of air temperature trends are also analyzed using the two types of data for different seasons. A special criterion is applied to evaluate the degree of coincidence by sign between the air temperatures trends derived from the two types of data. Vertical sections of the linear trend averaged over the 10-degrees zones for the both hemispheres are analyzed. It is shown that the two types of data exhibit good coincidence in the terms of the trend sign for the low and middle troposphere and low stratosphere over the areas well covered by the rawinsond observation net. Significant differences of the air temperature trend values are observed near the land surface and in the tropopause layer. The absolute value of the cooling rate of the tropical low stratosphere based on the rawinsond data is larger then that based on the reanalysis data. The presence of a positive trend in the low troposphere in the belt from ˜ 40N to ˜ 70N is evident in the two data sets. A comparative analysis of the trends for the both periods of observation shows that introducing satellite information in the reanalysis data resulted in an increase of the number of stations where the signs of the trend derived from the two sets of data coincide, especially in the southeastern part of Eurasia. The second part of the present study is related with another question. How do well climate model simulations match temperature observations throughout the atmosphere? Estimates of monthly-mean troposphere and stratospheric temperature trends over the past twenty years, from different hydrodynamical models (INM - model of Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RHMC - model of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia) are compared both with each other and with the observed trend analyses using aerological observations. We verified if the agreement is good between models and observations in term of cooling in the lower stratosphere and the tropospheric warming, which are strong indicators of climate change. Spatial inconsistencies between the observed and modelled vertical patterns of temperature change are identified. This work was partially supported by RFFI foundation N 03-05-64312, NATO grant EST.CLG.978911 and INTAS grant 03515296.

Paediatric reference interval and biological variation trends of thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (T4) in an Asian population.

PubMed

Loh, Tze Ping; Sethi, Sunil Kumar; Metz, Michael Patrick

2015-08-01

To describe the reference intervals and biological variation data for thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) in a mixed Asian population using an indirect sampling approach and to compare them with published reports. TSH and FT4 of children measured once or twice over a 7-year period (2008-2014) at primary-care and tertiary-care settings were extracted from the laboratory information system. After excluding outliers, age-related reference intervals were derived using the Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) approach, while age-partitioned biological variation data were obtained according to recommendations by Fraser and Harris. Both TSH and FT4 were very high at birth and declined with age. Similarly within-individual and between-individual biological variations were higher for both TSH and FT4 at birth and also declined with age. Our data were broadly similar to previous studies. Significant heterogeneity in study population and methods prohibited direct numerical comparison between this and previously published studies. This study fills two important gaps in our knowledge of paediatric thyroid function by reporting the centile trends (and reference values) in a mixed Asian population, as well as providing age-partitioned biological variation data. The variation in published reference intervals highlights the difficulty in harmonising paediatric thyroid reference intervals or recommending universal clinical cut-offs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Hair relaxer use and risk of uterine leiomyomata in African-American women.

PubMed

Wise, Lauren A; Palmer, Julie R; Reich, David; Cozier, Yvette C; Rosenberg, Lynn

2012-03-01

Hair relaxers are used by millions of black women, possibly exposing them to various chemicals through scalp lesions and burns. In the Black Women's Health Study, the authors assessed hair relaxer use in relation to uterine leiomyomata incidence. In 1997, participants reported on hair relaxer use (age at first use, frequency, duration, number of burns, and type of formulation). From 1997 to 2009, 23,580 premenopausal women were followed for incident uterine leiomyomata. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During 199,991 person-years, 7,146 cases of uterine leiomyomata were reported as confirmed by ultrasound (n = 4,630) or surgery (n = 2,516). The incidence rate ratio comparing ever with never use of relaxers was 1.17 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.30). Positive trends were observed for frequency of use (P(trend) < 0.001), duration of use (P(trend) = 0.015), and number of burns (P(trend) < 0.001). Among long-term users (≥10 years), the incidence rate ratios for frequency of use categories 3-4, 5-6, and ≥7 versus 1-2 times/year were 1.04 (95% CI: 0.92, 1.19), 1.12 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.27), and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.31), respectively (P(trend) = 0.002). Risk was unrelated to age at first use or type of formulation. These findings raise the hypothesis that hair relaxer use increases uterine leiomyomata risk.

Genetic determinants of antithyroid drug-induced agranulocytosis by human leukocyte antigen genotyping and genome-wide association study

PubMed Central

Chen, Pei-Lung; Shih, Shyang-Rong; Wang, Pei-Wen; Lin, Ying-Chao; Chu, Chen-Chung; Lin, Jung-Hsin; Chen, Szu-Chi; Chang, Ching-Chung; Huang, Tien-Shang; Tsai, Keh Sung; Tseng, Fen-Yu; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Lu, Jin-Ying; Chiu, Wei-Yih; Chang, Chien-Ching; Chen, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Yuan-Tsong; Fann, Cathy Shen-Jang; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Chang, Tien-Chun

2015-01-01

Graves' disease is the leading cause of hyperthyroidism affecting 1.0–1.6% of the population. Antithyroid drugs are the treatment cornerstone, but may cause life-threatening agranulocytosis. Here we conduct a two-stage association study on two separate subject sets (in total 42 agranulocytosis cases and 1,208 Graves' disease controls), using direct human leukocyte antigen genotyping and SNP-based genome-wide association study. We demonstrate HLA-B*38:02 (Armitage trend Pcombined=6.75 × 10−32) and HLA-DRB1*08:03 (Pcombined=1.83 × 10−9) as independent susceptibility loci. The genome-wide association study identifies the same signals. Estimated odds ratios for these two loci comparing effective allele carriers to non-carriers are 21.48 (95% confidence interval=11.13–41.48) and 6.13 (95% confidence interval=3.28–11.46), respectively. Carrying both HLA-B*38:02 and HLA-DRB1*08:03 increases odds ratio to 48.41 (Pcombined=3.32 × 10−21, 95% confidence interval=21.66–108.22). Our results could be useful for antithyroid-induced agranulocytosis and potentially for agranulocytosis caused by other chemicals. PMID:26151496

Genetic determinants of antithyroid drug-induced agranulocytosis by human leukocyte antigen genotyping and genome-wide association study.

PubMed

Chen, Pei-Lung; Shih, Shyang-Rong; Wang, Pei-Wen; Lin, Ying-Chao; Chu, Chen-Chung; Lin, Jung-Hsin; Chen, Szu-Chi; Chang, Ching-Chung; Huang, Tien-Shang; Tsai, Keh Sung; Tseng, Fen-Yu; Wang, Chih-Yuan; Lu, Jin-Ying; Chiu, Wei-Yih; Chang, Chien-Ching; Chen, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Yuan-Tsong; Fann, Cathy Shen-Jang; Yang, Wei-Shiung; Chang, Tien-Chun

2015-07-07

Graves' disease is the leading cause of hyperthyroidism affecting 1.0-1.6% of the population. Antithyroid drugs are the treatment cornerstone, but may cause life-threatening agranulocytosis. Here we conduct a two-stage association study on two separate subject sets (in total 42 agranulocytosis cases and 1,208 Graves' disease controls), using direct human leukocyte antigen genotyping and SNP-based genome-wide association study. We demonstrate HLA-B*38:02 (Armitage trend Pcombined=6.75 × 10(-32)) and HLA-DRB1*08:03 (Pcombined=1.83 × 10(-9)) as independent susceptibility loci. The genome-wide association study identifies the same signals. Estimated odds ratios for these two loci comparing effective allele carriers to non-carriers are 21.48 (95% confidence interval=11.13-41.48) and 6.13 (95% confidence interval=3.28-11.46), respectively. Carrying both HLA-B*38:02 and HLA-DRB1*08:03 increases odds ratio to 48.41 (Pcombined=3.32 × 10(-21), 95% confidence interval=21.66-108.22). Our results could be useful for antithyroid-induced agranulocytosis and potentially for agranulocytosis caused by other chemicals.

Method and apparatus to predict the remaining service life of an operating system

DOEpatents

Greitzer, Frank L.; Kangas, Lars J.; Terrones, Kristine M.; Maynard, Melody A.; Pawlowski, Ronald A. , Ferryman; Thomas A.; Skorpik, James R.; Wilson, Bary W.

2008-11-25

A method and computer-based apparatus for monitoring the degradation of, predicting the remaining service life of, and/or planning maintenance for, an operating system are disclosed. Diagnostic information on degradation of the operating system is obtained through measurement of one or more performance characteristics by one or more sensors onboard and/or proximate the operating system. Though not required, it is preferred that the sensor data are validated to improve the accuracy and reliability of the service life predictions. The condition or degree of degradation of the operating system is presented to a user by way of one or more calculated, numeric degradation figures of merit that are trended against one or more independent variables using one or more mathematical techniques. Furthermore, more than one trendline and uncertainty interval may be generated for a given degradation figure of merit/independent variable data set. The trendline(s) and uncertainty interval(s) are subsequently compared to one or more degradation figure of merit thresholds to predict the remaining service life of the operating system. The present invention enables multiple mathematical approaches in determining which trendline(s) to use to provide the best estimate of the remaining service life.

Trends and determinants of condom use in Uganda.

PubMed

De Coninck, Zaake; Marrone, Gaetano

2012-01-01

Documenting trends in condom use and exploring factors associated with their utilization are important for broadening the information base for the design of HIV intervention programs. This paper aims to document Uganda's nationwide trends in condom use from 1995 to 2006 and seeks to understand some of the socio-demographic variables that may be associated with their use, using Uganda Demographic Health Surveys (UDHSs). Data from UDHSs conducted in 1995, 2000/2001 and 2006 were analyzed. Socio-demographic variables as well as 'survey year' were selected to assess their interaction with condom use. Multivariate regression analyses were performed. Odds ratios and confidence intervals were computed. Socio-demographic factors such as being male and living in an urban setting were significantly associated with an increased likelihood of reported use of condoms. All results indicated a far greater increase in condom use between 1995 and 2000/2001 than between 2000/2001 and 2006. Policies need to intensify condom use campaigns especially among women and rural populations. The wane in increase in condom use between 2000/2001 and 2006 may be due to the large-scale influx of antiretrovirals (starting in 2004) which may be lowering the anxiety associated with the social construct of HIV/AIDS.

[Mortality from contact with poisonous snakes and lizards in Mexico from 1979 to 2003].

PubMed

Frayre-Torres, María José; Sevilla-Godínez, Elizabeth; Orozco-Valerio, Maria de Jesús; Armas, Jesús; Celis, Alfredo

2006-01-01

To describe the trend of standardized mortality by contact with poisonous snakes and lizards in Mexico from 1979 to 2003. We describe the standardized mortality trend by contact with poisonous snakes and lizards occurring in Mexico from 1979 to 2003, and report the mortality data bases from the INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática). We determined frequencies, percentages, mortality rates, standardized mortality rates and mortality relative risks with 95% confidence intervals. The general trend shows a statistically significant descent of 63.8%. The highest mortality rate within the 2000-2003 period was reported in Quintana Roo (7.47/1,000,000), Oaxaca (4.01/1,000,000), Veracruz (1.56/1,000,000), Chiapas (1.48/1,000,000), Campeche (1.43/1,000,000) and Yucatan (1.29/1,000,000). The groups with the highest risk are those older than 60 years and males. In spite of the detected decrease in mortality, the contact with poisonous snakes and lizards still is a public health problem in Mexico. As timely treatment saves lives, it is necessary to include and offer treatment in all emergency units of the country.

Important Role of Menarche in Development of Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer in African American Women.

PubMed

Ambrosone, Christine B; Zirpoli, Gary; Hong, Chi-Chen; Yao, Song; Troester, Melissa A; Bandera, Elisa V; Schedin, Pepper; Bethea, Traci N; Borges, Virginia; Park, Song-Yi; Chandra, Dhyan; Rosenberg, Lynn; Kolonel, Laurence N; Olshan, Andrew F; Palmer, Julie R

2015-09-01

Menarche is a critical time point for diverging fates of mammary cells of origin. African American women have young age at menarche, which could be associated with their high rates of estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) breast cancer. In the AMBER Consortium, using harmonized data from 4426 African American women with breast cancer and 17 474 controls, we used polytomous logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for ages at menarche and first live birth (FLB), and the interval between, in relation to ER+ and ER- breast cancer. All statistical tests were two-sided. Risk of ER- breast cancer was reduced with later age at menarche among both parous and nulliparous women (≥15 vs <11 years OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.81 and OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.29 to 1.10, respectively), with no effect of age at FLB. For ER+ breast cancer, the inverse association was weaker among nulliparous women. While longer intervals between menarche and FLB were associated with increased risk of ER+ breast cancer in a dose-response fashion (OR for 20 year interval = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.79, P trend = .003), ER- risk was only increased for intervals up to 14 years and not beyond (P trend = .33). While ER- breast cancer risk was markedly reduced in women with a late age at menarche, there was not a clear pattern of increased risk with longer interval between menarche and FLB, as was observed for ER+ breast cancer. These findings indicate that etiologic pathways involving adolescence and pregnancy may differ for ER- and ER+ breast cancer. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride concentrations in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran from 2003 to 2010.

PubMed

Amini, Hassan; Haghighat, Gholam Ali; Yunesian, Masud; Nabizadeh, Ramin; Mahvi, Amir Hossein; Dehghani, Mohammad Hadi; Davani, Rahim; Aminian, Abd-Rasool; Shamsipour, Mansour; Hassanzadeh, Naser; Faramarzi, Hossein; Mesdaghinia, Alireza

2016-02-01

There is discrepancy about intervals of fluoride monitoring in groundwater resources by Iranian authorities. Spatial and temporal variability of fluoride in groundwater resources of Larestan and Gerash regions in Iran were analyzed from 2003 to 2010 using a geospatial information system and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The mean concentrations of fluoride for the 8-year period in the eight cities and 31 villages were 1.6 and 2.0 mg/l, respectively; the maximum values were 2.4 and 3.8 mg/l, respectively. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal variability of fluoride in overall groundwater resources were relatively constant over the years. However, results of the Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a monotonic trend in the time series of one city and 11 villages for the 8-year period. Specifically, one city and three villages showed positive significant Kendall's Tau values, suggesting an upward trend in fluoride concentrations over the 8-year period. In contrast, seven villages displayed negative significant Kendall's Tau values, arguing for a downward trend in fluoride concentrations over the years. From 2003 to 2010, approximately 52 % of the Larestan and Gerash areas have had fluoride concentrations above the maximum permissible Iranian drinking water standard fluoride level (1.4 mg/l), and about 116,000 people were exposed to such excess amounts. Therefore, our study supports for a close monitoring of fluoride concentrations from health authorities in monthly intervals, especially in villages and cities that showed positive trend in fluoride concentrations. Moreover, we recommend simultaneous implementation of cost-effective protective measures or interventions until a standard fluoride level is achieved.

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase and thymidylate synthase genotypes and risk of acute graft-versus-host disease following hematopoietic cell transplantation for chronic myelogenous leukemia.

PubMed

Robien, Kim; Bigler, Jeannette; Yasui, Yutaka; Potter, John D; Martin, Paul; Storb, Rainer; Ulrich, Cornelia M

2006-09-01

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) and thymidylate synthase (TS) play key roles in intracellular folate metabolism. Polymorphisms in these enzymes have been shown to modify toxicity of methotrexate (MTX) after hematopoietic cell transplantation. In this study, we evaluated the risk of acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) associated with genetic variation in recipient and donor MTHFR and TS genotypes to assess whether genotype alters the efficacy of MTX in acute GVHD prophylaxis. Data on the transplantation course were abstracted from medical records for 304 adults who received allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants. MTHFR (C677T and A1298C) and TS (enhancer-region 28-base pair repeat, TSER, and 1494del6) genotypes were determined using polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment length polymorphism and TaqMan assays. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the associations between genotypes and risk of acute GVHD. Compared with recipients with the wild-type MTHFR 677CC genotype, those with the variant 677T allele showed a decreased risk of detectable acute GVHD (677CT: odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval, 0.4-1.6; 677TT: odds ratio, 0.4; 95% confidence interval, 0.2-0.8; P for trend = .01). The variant MTHFR 1298C allele in recipients was associated with an increased risk of acute GVHD compared with the wild-type MTHFR 1298AA genotype (1298AC: odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-3.9; 1298CC: odds ratio, 3.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-12.7; P for trend < .01). No association with risk of acute GVHD was observed for donor MTHFR genotypes or for recipient or donor TS genotypes, with the exception of an increase in acute GVHD among recipients whose donors had the TSER 3R/2R genotype (odds ratio, 3.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-7.2). These findings indicate that host, but not donor, MTHFR genotypes modify the risk of acute GVHD in recipients receiving MTX, in a manner consistent with our previously reported associations between MTHFR genotypes and MTX toxicity. A direct trade-off between drug toxicity and drug efficacy may play a role. Alternatively, the systemic folate environment, regulated by host tissues, might influence donor T-cell growth and activity.

Childhood cancer incidence trends in association with US folic acid fortification (1986-2008).

PubMed

Linabery, Amy M; Johnson, Kimberly J; Ross, Julie A

2012-06-01

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that prenatal vitamin supplementation reduces risk for some childhood cancers; however, a systematic evaluation of population-based childhood cancer incidence trends after fortification of enriched grain products with folic acid in the United States in 1996-1998 has not been previously reported. Here we describe temporal trends in childhood cancer incidence in association with US folic acid fortification. Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data (1986-2008), we calculated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to compare pre- and postfortification cancer incidence rates in children aged 0 to 4 years. Incidence trends were also evaluated by using joinpoint and loess regression models. From 1986 through 2008, 8829 children aged 0 to 4 years were diagnosed with malignancies, including 3790 and 3299 in utero during the pre- and postfortification periods, respectively. Pre- and postfortification incidence rates were similar for all cancers combined and for most specific cancer types. Rates of Wilms tumor (WT), primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNETs), and ependymomas were significantly lower postfortification. Joinpoint regression models detected increasing WT incidence from 1986 through 1997 followed by a sizable decline from 1997 through 2008, and increasing PNET incidence from 1986 through 1993 followed by a sharp decrease from 1993 through 2008. Loess curves indicated similar patterns. These results provide support for a decrease in WT and possibly PNET incidence, but not other childhood cancers, after US folic acid fortification.

Fruits, vegetables, soy foods and breast cancer in pre- and postmenopausal Korean women: a case-control study.

PubMed

Do, Min Hee; Lee, Sang Sun; Kim, Jung Yun; Jung, Pa Jong; Lee, Min Hyuk

2007-03-01

We carried out a case-control study to examine the relationship between fruits, vegetables, and soy foods intake with breast cancer risk in Korean women. Incident cases (n = 359) were identified through cancer biopsies and hospital-based controls (n = 708) were selected in the same hospitals. Subjects were asked to indicate usual dietary habits, which were assessed using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (98 items). Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by unconditional logistic regression after adjustment for additional confounding factors according to the menopausal status. High grape intake showed an inverse association of breast cancer in postmenopausal women (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.35-0.95; p for trend = 0.05). High tomato intake was associated with reduced breast cancer risk in premenopausal women (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.38-0.89, p for trend = 0.04). In postmenopausal women, green pepper intake showed an inverse association of breast cancer risk (OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.43-0.96, p for trend = 0.03). High soybean intake showed an inverse association of breast cancer in postmenopausal women (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.34-0.89, p for trend = 0.02). Our study suggests that high intake of some fruits, vegetables, and soybeans may be associated with a reduced breast cancer risk.

Sport and Sex-Specific Reporting Trends in the Epidemiology of Concussions Sustained by High School Athletes.

PubMed

Schallmo, Michael S; Weiner, Joseph A; Hsu, Wellington K

2017-08-02

Approximately 300,000 U.S. adolescents sustain concussions annually while participating in organized athletics. This study aimed to track sex and sport-specific trends among high school sports-related concussions over time, to identify whether a particular sport predisposes athletes to a higher risk, and to assess whether traumatic brain injury law enactments have been successful in improving recognition. Injury data for academic years 2005 to 2014 were collected from annual reports generated by High School RIO (Reporting Information Online). The relative proportions of total estimated concussions to total estimated injuries were compared using an injury proportion ratio. The concussion rate was defined as the number of concussions per 10,000 athlete exposures (1 athlete participating in 1 practice or competition), with rates compared using a rate ratio. To evaluate the impact of legislation on sports-related concussions in this population, trends in concussion rates and proportions were analyzed before enactment (academic years 2005-2009) and after enactment (academic years 2010-2014). Between 2005-2006 and 2014-2015, a significant increase (p < 0.0001) in the overall number of concussions for all sports combined, the overall concussion rate (rate ratio, 2.30 [95% confidence interval, 2.04 to 2.59]), and the overall proportion of concussions (injury proportion ratio, 2.68 [95% confidence interval, 2.66 to 2.70]) was seen. Based on the injury proportion ratio, during the 2014-2015 academic year, concussions were more common in girls' soccer than in any other sport (p < 0.0001). Because of potentially devastating consequences, concussion prevention and recognition measures continue to be emphasized in high school contact sports. The data in our study suggest that significant increases in the overall rate and proportion of reported concussions during the past decade could have been affected by traumatic brain injury legislation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show that girls' soccer players may have an even greater risk of sustaining a concussion than all other sports. Sports-related concussions in adolescent athletes can have devastating consequences, and we now know that female athletes, especially girls' soccer players, may be at an even greater risk for sustaining this injury than all other athletes. Knowledge of the trends identified by this study may help lead to policy and prevention measures that can accommodate each sport effectively and potentially halt these trends.

Prospective study of physical activity and risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Leitzmann, Michael F; Moore, Steven C; Peters, Tricia M; Lacey, James V; Schatzkin, Arthur; Schairer, Catherine; Brinton, Louise A; Albanes, Demetrius

2008-01-01

Introduction To prospectively examine the relation of total, vigorous and non-vigorous physical activity to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Methods We studied 32,269 women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project Follow-up Study. Usual physical activity (including household, occupational and leisure activities) throughout the previous year was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire. Postmenopausal breast cancer cases were identified through self-reports, death certificates and linkage to state cancer registries. A Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the relative risk and 95% confidence intervals of postmenopausal breast cancer associated with physical activity. Results During 269,792 person-years of follow-up from 1987 to 1998, 1506 new incident cases of postmenopausal breast cancer were ascertained. After adjusting for potential risk factors of breast cancer, a weak inverse association between total physical activity and postmenopausal breast cancer was suggested (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.21). That relation was almost entirely contributed by vigorous activity (relative risk comparing extreme categories = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.74 to 1.02; p for trend = 0.08). The inverse association with vigorous activity was limited to women who were lean (ie, body mass index <25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 0.68; 95% confidence interval = 0.54 to 0.85). In contrast, no association with vigorous activity was noted among women who were overweight or obese (ie, body mass index ≥ 25.0 kg/m2: relative risk = 1.18; 95% confidence interval = 0.93 to 1.49; p for interaction = 0.008). Non-vigorous activity showed no relation to breast cancer (relative risk comparing extreme quintiles = 1.02; 95% confidence interval = 0.87 to 1.19; p for trend = 0.86). The physical activity and breast cancer relation was not specific to a certain hormone receptor subtype. Conclusions In this cohort of postmenopausal women, breast cancer risk reduction appeared to be limited to vigorous forms of activity; it was apparent among normal weight women but not overweight women, and the relation did not vary by hormone receptor status. Our findings suggest that physical activity acts through underlying biological mechanisms that are independent of body weight control. PMID:18976449

[Recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai, 2002-2010].

PubMed

Bao, Ping-Ping; Li, Kai; Wu, Chun-Xiao; Huang, Zhe-Zhou; Wang, Chun-Fang; Xiang, Yong-Mei; Peng, Peng; Gong, Yang-Ming; Xiao, Xian-Min; Zheng, Ying

2013-04-01

To examine the recent incidences and trends of childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai. Data from the population-based Shanghai Cancer Registry and related retrospective survey were used to analyze the patterns of incidence and trends of malignant solid tumors diagnosed between 2002 and 2010 in children aged 0-14 years. The distributions of incidences were described according to gender, age and cancer types which were classified according to International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC). Annual age-standardized rates (ASRs) were adjusted by the world standard population. Approximate confidence intervals for standardized rate ratios (SRR) based Poisson distribution test-based methods were used to assess changes in incidence over the period 2002 - 2006 and 2007 - 2010. (1)A total of 868 cases of childhood malignant solid tumors were diagnosed in Shanghai during 2002 - 2010, accounting for 65.8% of all childhood cancers. The ASR of 2002 - 2010 was 80.2 per million for all solid tumors. (2) The ASR was higher in boys (86.3 per million) than in girls (73.8 per million) with SRR 1.2 (95%CI 1.0 - 1.3). Incidence rate was the highest in the first five years of life with 93.4 per million. The age-specific incidence rates in 5 - 9 and 10 - 14 age groups were 65.2 and 79.3 per million, respectively. (3) CNS tumors, lymphomas, germ cell tumors, neuroblastoma, and soft tissue sarcomas were the top 5 most common solid tumors in children, with the incidence rate of 23.8, 11.0, 7.8, 7.7 and 6.8 per million, respectively. The patterns of subgroups varied in different age groups. Blastomas, such as neuroblastoma, retinoblastoma, were more common in the children aged 0 - 4 years, whereas epithelial carcinomas and bone tumors developed more frequently in elder children aged 10 - 14 years. (4) Compared with the ASR in 2002 - 2006, the ASR for both genders in 2007 - 2010 had no substantial changes (78.7 per million in 2002 - 2006 and 82.9 per million in 2007 - 2010). However, among boys, the incidence rate in 2007 - 2010 was significantly higher than that in 2002 - 2006 with SRR 1.2 (95%CI: 1.0 - 1.4). For specific subgroups of cancer, there were no substantial changes. Some cautions should be taken when interpreting results involving a small number of cases per year and those with wide 95% confidence intervals. The incidence rate of pediatric malignant solid tumors among males was higher than females during 2002 - 2010, and it differed among different age groups with the highest in the first five years of life. CNS tumor was the most common type of solid tumors in children. This was a unique characteristics comparing with adult reflected in disease spectrum and age of onset. The patterns of incidence and its trends for childhood malignant solid tumors in Shanghai could provide a basis for etiologic research and preventive interventions. The findings also suggest an urgent need for longer population-based surveillance to verify the pattern and changing trends.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

PubMed

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Design tradeoffs for trend assessment in aquatic biological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurtz, Martin E.; Van Sickle, John; Carlisle, Daren M.; Paulsen, Steven G.

2013-01-01

Assessments of long-term (multiyear) temporal trends in biological monitoring programs are generally undertaken without an adequate understanding of the temporal variability of biological communities. When the sources and levels of variability are unknown, managers cannot make informed choices in sampling design to achieve monitoring goals in a cost-effective manner. We evaluated different trend sampling designs by estimating components of both short- and long-term variability in biological indicators of water quality in streams. Invertebrate samples were collected from 32 sites—9 urban, 6 agricultural, and 17 relatively undisturbed (reference) streams—distributed throughout the United States. Between 5 and 12 yearly samples were collected at each site during the period 1993–2008, plus 2 samples within a 10-week index period during either 2007 or 2008. These data allowed calculation of four sources of variance for invertebrate indicators: among sites, among years within sites, interaction among sites and years (site-specific annual variation), and among samples collected within an index period at a site (residual). When estimates of these variance components are known, changes to sampling design can be made to improve trend detection. Design modifications that result in the ability to detect the smallest trend with the fewest samples are, from most to least effective: (1) increasing the number of years in the sampling period (duration of the monitoring program), (2) decreasing the interval between samples, and (3) increasing the number of repeat-visit samples per year (within an index period). This order of improvement in trend detection, which achieves the greatest gain for the fewest samples, is the same whether trends are assessed at an individual site or an average trend of multiple sites. In multiple-site surveys, increasing the number of sites has an effect similar to that of decreasing the sampling interval; the benefit of adding sites is greater when a new set of different sites is selected for each sampling effort than when the same sites are sampled each time. Understanding variance components of the ecological attributes of interest can lead to more cost-effective monitoring designs to detect trends.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Longitudinal evaluation of a World Wide Web-based antimicrobial stewardship program: assessing factors associated with approval patterns and trends over time.

PubMed

Venugopal, Vidya; Lehmann, Christoph U; Diener-West, Marie; Agwu, Allison L

2014-02-01

The Johns Hopkins Children's Medical and Surgery Center developed a Web-based Antimicrobial Stewardship Program (ASP) in 2005. The present study aimed to assess longitudinal antimicrobial request and approval patterns for this ASP. We analyzed a total of 16,229 antimicrobial requests for 3,542 patients between June 1, 2005, and June 30, 2009. Antimicrobial approval was the outcome of interest. We assessed gaming by studying trends in automatically approved requests. Nonparametric tests for trend were performed to detect changes in approval patterns. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with approval. The vast majority (91.3%) of antimicrobial requests were approved, with an increase of 6.1% over time (P < .01). Renewal requests were more likely than primary requests (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.45-2.04) to be approved. Antiviral requests had higher odds of approval than antibiotic requests (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.04-1.56). Compared with requests by medical services, requests by surgical services had lower odds of approval (aOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.59-0.83), whereas pediatric intensive care requests had higher odds of approval (aOR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.00-1.40). The number of auto-approved requests remained consistent. The Web-based ASP allows management of a large number of antimicrobial requests, without apparent gaming. Observed differences in approval patterns based on patient, requestor, and antimicrobial factors may inform the development of ASPs and evaluation of provider education and training. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Unprocessed red meat and processed meat consumption and risk of stroke in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

PubMed

Amiano, P; Chamosa, S; Etxezarreta, N; Arriola, L; Sánchez, M-J; Ardanaz, E; Molina-Montes, E; Chirlaque, M-D; Moreno-Iribas, C; Huerta, J-M; Egües, N; Navarro, C; Requena, M; Quirós, J-R; Fonseca-Nunes, A; Jakszyn, P; González, C-A; Dorronsoro, M

2016-03-01

High intakes of unprocessed red or processed meat may increase the risk of stroke. We aimed to examine the association between unprocessed red meat, processed meat and total red meat consumption and risk of total stroke and ischaemic stroke. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were conducted based on the data for 41,020 men and women aged 29-69 years at baseline. During a mean follow-up of 13.8 years, 674 incident cases of stroke (531 ischaemic strokes, 79 haemorrhagic strokes, 42 subarachnoid haemorrhages and 22 mixed or unspecified events) were identified. After multiple adjustment, unprocessed red meat, processed meat and total red meat consumption were not correlated with incidence of total stroke or ischaemic stroke in either men or women. The hazard ratios (HRs) for unprocessed red meat and processed meat and risk of total stroke comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles were, respectively, 0.81 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-1.21; P-trend=0.15) and 0.92 (95% CI 0.64-1.32; P-trend=0.82) in men and 1.21 (95% CI 0.79-1.85; P-trend=0.10) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.51-1.27; P-trend=0.17) in women. The HRs for unprocessed red meat and processed meat and risk of ischaemic stroke were, respectively, 0.80 (95% CI 0.51-1.25; P-trend=0.51) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.57-1.29; P-trend=0.77) in men and 1.24 (95% CI 0.74-2.05; P-trend=0.13) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.47-1.42; P-trend=0.31) in women. In the Spanish European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, unprocessed red meat and processed meat consumption were not associated with risk of stroke in men or women.

Development of paediatric biochemistry centile charts as a complement to laboratory reference intervals.

PubMed

Loh, Tze Ping; Antoniou, Georgia; Baghurst, Peter; Metz, Michael P

2014-06-01

Age-specific paediatric reference intervals are used in interpretation of laboratory results. However, interpretation may be problematic when a child just crosses an age bracket and the difference between the original and the subsequent age-specific reference interval is large. Moreover, details about the physiological changes with age may be masked. For the 12 months ending 30 September 2013, results of 16 common clinical biochemistry tests of ambulatory paediatric patients aged 0-19, requested by primary care physicians, were retrospectively collected in a large pathology service, and used to construct smoothed centile charts using a penalised maximum likelihood method. From the developed centile charts, the concentrations of sodium, bicarbonate, creatinine, urate, total protein, and albumin all increased with increasing age of the children. In contrast, the concentrations of potassium, chloride, anion gap, calcium, phosphate and lactate dehydrogenase decreased with increasing age of the children. Changes in the concentrations of urea, alkaline phosphatase, glucose, and total cholesterol varied by age. Generally, the boys and girls shared similar trend patterns until 10-15 years of age, when variations in the age of onset of puberty and development caused the trends of some biochemical measures to differ. The paediatric biochemistry centile charts are intuitive tools to use. They complement age-specific reference intervals in the tracking, interpretation and discussion of laboratory results. They also enhance the understanding of underlying physiological changes in biochemistry in children.

Cretaceous system stratigraphy and shallow gas resources on the Fort Peck reservation, northeastern Montana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Monson, L.M.; Lund, D.F.

1991-06-01

Five shallow gas-bearing Cretaceous intervals have been identified on the Fort Peck Reservation of northeastern Montana. They include the Lower Judith River Sandstone and shaly sandstone intervals in the Gammon, Niobrara, Greenhorn, and Mowry Formations, Stratigraphic correlations have been carried from southwestern Saskatchewan through the Bowdoin gas field to the reservation. Sparse yet widely distributed gas shows confirm this relatively untested resource. Each of these gas-bearing intervals belongs to a recognized stratigraphic cycle characterized by thick shales overlain by progradational shaly sandstones and siltstones. The bottom cycle (Skull Creek to Mowry) contains considerable nonmarine deposits, especially within the Muddy Sandstonemore » interval, which is thickly developed in the eastern part of the reservation as a large valley-fill network. Some individual sandstone units are not continuous across the reservation. These, and those that correlate, appear to be related to paleotectonic features defined by northwest-trending lineament zones, and by lineament zone intersections. Northeast-trending paleotectonic elements exert secondary influence on stratigraphic isopachs. Circular tectonic elements, which carry through to basement, also have anomalous stratigraphic expression. Conventional drilling has not been conducive to properly testing the Cretaceous gas potential on the reservation, but empirical well-log analysis suggests that gas can be identified by various crossover techniques. The Judith River Formation did produce gas for field use at East Poplar.« less

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Does geography influence the treatment and outcomes of colorectal cancer? A population-based analysis.

PubMed

Helewa, Ramzi M; Turner, Donna; Wirtzfeld, Debrah; Park, Jason; Hochman, David; Czaykowski, Piotr; Singh, Harminder; Shu, Emma; Xue, Lin; McKay, Andrew

2013-06-17

The Canadian province of Manitoba covers a large geographical area but only has one major urban center, Winnipeg. We sought to determine if regional differences existed in the quality of colorectal cancer care in a publicly funded health care system. This was a population-based historical cohort analysis of the treatment and outcomes of Manitobans diagnosed with colorectal cancer between 2004 and 2006. Administrative databases were utilized to assess quality of care using published quality indicators. A total of 2,086 patients were diagnosed with stage I to IV colorectal cancer and 42.2% lived outside of Winnipeg. Patients from North Manitoba had a lower odds of undergoing major surgery after controlling for other confounders (odds ratio (OR): 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26 to 0.90). No geographic differences existed in the quality measures of 30-day operative mortality, consultations with oncologists, surveillance colonoscopy, and 5-year survival. However, there was a trend towards lower survival in North Manitoba. We found minimal differences by geography. However, overall compliance with quality measures is low and there are concerning trends in North Manitoba. This study is one of the few to evaluate population-based benchmarks for colorectal cancer therapy in Canada.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Geomorphic domains and linear features on Landsat images, Circle Quadrangle, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, S.L.

1984-01-01

A remote sensing study using Landsat images was undertaken as part of the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP). Geomorphic domains A and B, identified on enhanced Landsat images, divide Circle quadrangle south of Tintina fault zone into two regional areas having major differences in surface characteristics. Domain A is a roughly rectangular, northeast-trending area of relatively low relief and simple, widely spaced drainages, except where igneous rocks are exposed. In contrast, domain B, which bounds two sides of domain A, is more intricately dissected showing abrupt changes in slope and relatively high relief. The northwestern part of geomorphic domain A includes a previously mapped tectonostratigraphic terrane. The southeastern boundary of domain A occurs entirely within the adjoining tectonostratigraphic terrane. The sharp geomorphic contrast along the southeastern boundary of domain A and the existence of known faults along this boundary suggest that the southeastern part of domain A may be a subdivision of the adjoining terrane. Detailed field studies would be necessary to determine the characteristics of the subdivision. Domain B appears to be divisible into large areas of different geomorphic terrains by east-northeast-trending curvilinear lines drawn on Landsat images. Segments of two of these lines correlate with parts of boundaries of mapped tectonostratigraphic terranes. On Landsat images prominent north-trending lineaments together with the curvilinear lines form a large-scale regional pattern that is transected by mapped north-northeast-trending high-angle faults. The lineaments indicate possible lithlogic variations and/or structural boundaries. A statistical strike-frequency analysis of the linear features data for Circle quadrangle shows that northeast-trending linear features predominate throughout, and that most northwest-trending linear features are found south of Tintina fault zone. A major trend interval of N.64-72E. in the linear feature data, corresponds to the strike of foliations in metamorphic rocks and magnetic anomalies reflecting compositional variations suggesting that most linear features in the southern part of the quadrangle probably are related to lithologic variations brought about by folding and foliation of metamorphic rocks. A second important trend interval, N.14-35E., may be related to thrusting south of the Tintina fault zone, as high concentrations of linear features within this interval are found in areas of mapped thrusts. Low concentrations of linear features are found in areas of most igneous intrusives. High concentrations of linear features do not correspond to areas of mineralization in any consistent or significant way that would allow concentration patterns to be easily used as an aid in locating areas of mineralization. The results of this remote sensing study indicate that there are several possibly important areas where further detailed studies are warranted.

Perceptual basis of evolving Western musical styles

PubMed Central

Rodriguez Zivic, Pablo H.; Shifres, Favio; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2013-01-01

The brain processes temporal statistics to predict future events and to categorize perceptual objects. These statistics, called expectancies, are found in music perception, and they span a variety of different features and time scales. Specifically, there is evidence that music perception involves strong expectancies regarding the distribution of a melodic interval, namely, the distance between two consecutive notes within the context of another. The recent availability of a large Western music dataset, consisting of the historical record condensed as melodic interval counts, has opened new possibilities for data-driven analysis of musical perception. In this context, we present an analytical approach that, based on cognitive theories of music expectation and machine learning techniques, recovers a set of factors that accurately identifies historical trends and stylistic transitions between the Baroque, Classical, Romantic, and Post-Romantic periods. We also offer a plausible musicological and cognitive interpretation of these factors, allowing us to propose them as data-driven principles of melodic expectation. PMID:23716669

Estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests with random lot-to-lot variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Magari, Robert T

2002-03-01

The effect of different lot-to-lot variability levels on the prediction of stability are studied based on two statistical models for estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests. Lot-to-lot variability is considered as random in both models, and is attributed to two sources-variability at time zero, and variability of degradation rate. Real-time stability tests are modeled as a function of time while accelerated stability tests as a function of time and temperatures. Several data sets were simulated, and a maximum likelihood approach was used for estimation. The 95% confidence intervals for the degradation rate depend on the amount of lot-to-lot variability. When lot-to-lot degradation rate variability is relatively large (CV > or = 8%) the estimated confidence intervals do not represent the trend for individual lots. In such cases it is recommended to analyze each lot individually. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 91: 893-899, 2002

Trends in stage-specific incidence of prostate cancer in Norway, 1980-2010: a population-based study.

PubMed

Møller, Mette H; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Beisland, Christian; Rørvik, Jarle; Støvring, Henrik

2016-10-01

To estimate changes in the stage distribution of prostate cancer during the time period where opportunistic prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing was introduced. Cancer stage, age, and year of diagnosis were obtained for all men aged >50 years diagnosed with prostate cancer in Norway during the period 1980-2010. Three calendar-time periods (1980-1989, 1990-2000, and 2001-2010) and three age groups (50-65, 66-74, and ≥75 years) were defined. Birth cohorts were categorised into four intervals: ≤1915, 1916-1925, 1926-1940 and ≥1941. We used Poisson regressions to conduct both a time period and cohort-based analysis of trends in the incidence of localised, regional, and distant cancer for each combination of age groups and calendar-time periods or birth cohorts, respectively. Additionally, we explored the effect of cohorts on the stage-specific incidence graphically with a Poisson regression using 5-year age groups, and by estimating cumulative incidence rates for each birth cohort. The annual incidence of localised cancers among men aged 50-65 and 66-74 years rose from 41.4 and 255.2 per 100 000, respectively, before the introduction of PSA testing to 137.9 and 418.7 in 2001-2010 afterwards, corresponding to 3.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1-3.5] and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) fold increases. The incidence of regional cancers increased by a factor seven among men aged <75 years. The incidence of distant cancers in men aged ≥75 years decreased by 29% (95% CI 25-33%). These findings were confirmed in the cohort-based approach. Opportunistic PSA testing substantially increased the incidence of localised and regional prostate cancers among men aged 50-74 years, which was not fully compensated by the 30% decrease in incidence of distant prostate cancers in older men. © 2015 The Authors BJU International © 2015 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence in a Healthcare Area.

PubMed

Molina, Antonio J; García-Martínez, Lidia; Zapata-Alvarado, Julio; Alonso-Orcajo, Nieves; Fernández-Villa, Tania; Martín, Vicente

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to identify trends in the incidence of lung cancer in the Leon Healthcare Area. All cases of cancer among residents of the Leon healthcare catchment area listed in the hospital-based tumor registry of the Centro Asistencial Universitario de Leon (CAULE) between 1996 and 2010 were included. Gross incidence rates over 3-year intervals were calculated and adjusted for the worldwide and European populations. A total of 2,491 cases were included. In men, incidence adjusted for the European population rose from 40.1 new cases per 100,000 population (1996-1998) to 61.8 (2005-2007), and then fell to 54.6 (2008-2010). In women, incidence tripled from 3.0 (1996-1998) to 9.2 new cases per 100,000 (2008-2010). Although lung cancer is an avoidable disease, it is a serious problem in the Leon Healthcare Area. Of particular concern is the rising incidence among women. Copyright © 2015 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Sex difference in the association between habitual daytime napping and prevalence of diabetes: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sun, Kan; Li, Feng; Qi, Yiqin; Lin, Diaozhu; Ren, Meng; Xu, Mingtong; Li, Fangping; Li, Yan; Yan, Li

2016-05-01

Our objective was to evaluate the associations between habitual daytime napping and diabetes and whether it varies by sex, menopause, and sleep quality. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in 8621 eligible individuals aged 40 years or older. Information on daytime napping hours, night-time sleep duration, history of menstruation, and sleep quality was self-reported. Diabetes was diagnosed according to the 1999 World Health Organization diagnostic criteria. The prevalence of diabetes was 19.4 % in men and 15.6 % in women. Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with parameters of glycometabolism in women, such as fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose, and Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c, all P for trend <0.05). In women, the prevalence of diabetes in no-habitual daytime napping group, 0-1-h daytime napping group, and more than 1-h daytime napping group were 14.5, 15.6, and 20.8 %, respectively (P for trend = 0.0004). A similar trend was detected in postmenopausal women (P for trend = 0.002). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, compared with no-habitual daytime napping postmenopausal women, those with daytime napping more than 1 h had higher prevalent diabetes (odds ratios 1.36, 95 % confidence interval, 1.04-1.77). In subgroup analysis of postmenopausal women, associations of daytime napping levels and prevalent diabetes were detected in older, overweight participants with good sleep quality who have not retired from work. In conclusion, our study suggests that habitual daytime napping is associated with prevalence of diabetes in postmenopausal women.

Multimorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome in 2 prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Szentkirályi, András; Völzke, Henry; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Trenkwalder, Claudia; Berger, Klaus

2014-06-03

Our aim was to evaluate the association between the cumulative effect of comorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome (RLS) in 2 population-based German cohort studies. The Dortmund Health Study (DHS) (n = 1,312; median follow-up time: 2.1 years) and the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) (n = 4,308; median follow-up time: 5.0 years) were used for the analyses. RLS was assessed at baseline and follow-up according to the RLS minimal criteria. A comorbidity index was calculated as a sum of the following conditions: diabetes, hypertension, myocardial infarction, obesity, stroke, cancer, renal disease, anemia, depression, thyroid disease, and migraine. The relationship between comorbidity and incident RLS was analyzed with multivariate logistic regression models. An increase in the number of comorbid conditions at baseline predicted prevalent RLS (DHS: trend odds ratio [OR] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.56; SHIP: trend OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.18-1.52) and incident RLS (DHS: trend OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.04-1.68; SHIP: trend OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.37-1.85) after adjustment for several covariates. The ORs for incident RLS associated with 3 or more comorbid diseases (DHS: OR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.18-5.34; SHIP: OR = 4.30, 95% CI 2.60-7.11) were higher than the ORs for any single disease. Multimorbidity was a strong risk factor for RLS in these 2 population-based cohort studies. The results support the hypothesis that cumulative disease burden is more important than the presence of a specific single disease in the pathophysiology of RLS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Thyroid hormones and mortality risk in euthyroid individuals: the Kangbuk Samsung health study.

PubMed

Zhang, Yiyi; Chang, Yoosoo; Ryu, Seungho; Cho, Juhee; Lee, Won-Young; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Kwon, Min-Jung; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rampal, Sanjay; Han, Won Kon; Shin, Hocheol; Guallar, Eliseo

2014-07-01

Hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism, both overt and subclinical, are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The association between thyroid hormones and mortality in euthyroid individuals, however, is unclear. To examine the prospective association between thyroid hormones levels within normal ranges and mortality endpoints. A prospective cohort study of 212 456 middle-aged South Korean men and women who had normal thyroid hormone levels and no history of thyroid disease at baseline from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2009. Free T4 (FT4), free T3 (FT3), and TSH levels were measured by RIA. Vital status and cause of death ascertainment were based on linkage to the National Death Index death certificate records. After a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 730 participants died (335 deaths from cancer and 112 cardiovascular-related deaths). FT4 was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (HR = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.95, comparing the highest vs lowest quartile of FT4; P for linear trend = .01), and FT3 was inversely associated cancer mortality (HR = 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.85; P for linear trend = .001). TSH was not associated with mortality endpoints. In a large cohort of euthyroid men and women, FT4 and FT3 levels within the normal range were inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality and cancer mortality, particularly liver cancer mortality.

Firearm and nonfirearm homicide in 5 South African cities: a retrospective population-based study.

PubMed

Matzopoulos, Richard G; Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E

2014-03-01

We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

Quality of diet and mortality among Japanese men and women: Japan Public Health Center based prospective study.

PubMed

Kurotani, Kayo; Akter, Shamima; Kashino, Ikuko; Goto, Atsushi; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Sawada, Norie; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-03-22

To examine the association between adherence to the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top and total and cause specific mortality. Large scale population based prospective cohort study in Japan with follow-up for a median of 15 years. 11 public health centre areas across Japan. 36,624 men and 42,970 women aged 45-75 who had no history of cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, or chronic liver disease. Deaths and causes of death identified with the residential registry and death certificates. Higher scores on the food guide (better adherence) were associated with lower total mortality; the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of total mortality for the lowest through highest scores were 1.00, 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97), 0.88 (0.83 to 0.93), and 0.85 (0.79 to 0.91) (P<0.001 for trend) and the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio associated with a 10 point increase in food guide scores was 0.93 (0.91 to 0.95; P<0.001 for trend). This score was inversely associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio associated with a 10 point increase 0.93, 0.89 to 0.98; P=0.005 for trend) and particularly from cerebrovascular disease (0.89, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.002 for trend). There was some evidence, though not significant, of an inverse association for cancer mortality (0.96, 0.93 to 1.00; P=0.053 for trend). Closer adherence to Japanese dietary guidelines was associated with a lower risk of total mortality and mortality from cardiovascular disease, particularly from cerebrovascular disease, in Japanese adults. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations. PMID:28837558

Quantification of fetal magnetoencephalographic activity in low-risk fetuses using burst duration and interburst interval.

PubMed

Vairavan, Srinivasan; Govindan, Rathinaswamy B; Haddad, Naim; Preissl, Hubert; Lowery, Curtis L; Siegel, Eric; Eswaran, Hari

2014-07-01

To identify quantitative MEG indices of spontaneous brain activity for fetal neurological maturation in normal pregnancies and examine the effect of fetal state on these indices. Spontaneous MEG brain activity was examined in 22 low-risk fetal recordings with gestational age (GA) ranging from 30 to 37 weeks. As major quantitative characteristics of spontaneous activity, burst duration (BD) and interburst interval (IBI) were studied in correlation with GA and fetal state. IBI showed a decrease with gestational age (-0.21 s/week, P=0.0031). This trend was only maintained in the quiet-sleep state. With respect to BD, no significant trends were detected with GA and state. IBI can be quantified as a fetal brain maturational parameter. The decrease in IBI over gestation was similar to the trend reported in the preterm neonatal EEG studies. Quiet sleep could be the optimal state to study such MEG maturational indices. With further investigation, indices extracted from spontaneous fetal brain activity may serve as an early warning for fetal neurological distress. Copyright © 2013 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stapler vs suture closure of pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Wei; Lv, Ran; Wang, Xianfa; Mou, Yiping; Cai, Xiujun; Herr, Ingrid

2010-10-01

Suture closure and stapler closure of the pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy are the techniques used most often. The ideal choice remains a matter of debate. Five bibliographic databases covering 1970 to July 2009 were searched. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Stapler closure was performed in 671 patients, while suture closure was conducted in 1,615 patients. The pancreatic fistula rate ranged from 0% to 40.0% for stapler closure of the pancreatic stump and from 9.3% to 45.7% for the suture closure technique. There were no significant difference between the stapler and suture closure groups with respect to the pancreatic fistula formation rate (22.1% vs 31.2%; odds ratio, .85; 95% confidence interval, .66-1.08), although there was a trend toward favoring stapler closure. In 4 studies including 437 patients, stapler closure was associated with a trend (not statistically significant) toward a reduction in intra-abdominal abscess (odds ratio, .53; 95% confidence interval, .24-1.15). No significant differences occur between suture and stapler closure with respect to the pancreatic fistula or intra-abdominal abscess after distal pancreatectomy, though there is a trend favoring stapler closure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends and Correlation Estimation in Climate Sciences: Effects of Timescale Errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, M.; Bermejo, M. A.; Bickert, T.; Chirila, D.; Fohlmeister, J.; Köhler, P.; Lohmann, G.; Olafsdottir, K.; Scholz, D.

2012-12-01

Trend describes time-dependence in the first moment of a stochastic process, and correlation measures the linear relation between two random variables. Accurately estimating the trend and correlation, including uncertainties, from climate time series data in the uni- and bivariate domain, respectively, allows first-order insights into the geophysical process that generated the data. Timescale errors, ubiquitious in paleoclimatology, where archives are sampled for proxy measurements and dated, poses a problem to the estimation. Statistical science and the various applied research fields, including geophysics, have almost completely ignored this problem due to its theoretical almost-intractability. However, computational adaptations or replacements of traditional error formulas have become technically feasible. This contribution gives a short overview of such an adaptation package, bootstrap resampling combined with parametric timescale simulation. We study linear regression, parametric change-point models and nonparametric smoothing for trend estimation. We introduce pairwise-moving block bootstrap resampling for correlation estimation. Both methods share robustness against autocorrelation and non-Gaussian distributional shape. We shortly touch computing-intensive calibration of bootstrap confidence intervals and consider options to parallelize the related computer code. Following examples serve not only to illustrate the methods but tell own climate stories: (1) the search for climate drivers of the Agulhas Current on recent timescales, (2) the comparison of three stalagmite-based proxy series of regional, western German climate over the later part of the Holocene, and (3) trends and transitions in benthic oxygen isotope time series from the Cenozoic. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (FOR 668, FOR 1070, MU 1595/4-1) and the European Commission (MC ITN 238512, MC ITN 289447) is acknowledged.

Trends in Rehabilitation Services Use in Chinese Children and Adolescents With Intellectual Disabilities: 2007-2013.

PubMed

He, Ping; Guo, Chao; Luo, Yanan; Wen, Xu; Salas, J M Ian; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2017-12-01

To investigate trends in rehabilitation services use in children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities, and to explore factors potentially contributing to the trends. A population-based study using a multistage, randomized cluster-sampling process to ascertain participants in 2006. A subsample was selected for follow-up surveys from 2007 to 2013. Thirty-one provinces of China. Children (N=5432) aged 0 to 17 years with intellectual disabilities were followed up for 7 years. Not applicable. The outcome variable was whether individuals received at least 1 of the following rehabilitation services in the past 12 months: occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech or communication therapy. Overall, the utilization rates of rehabilitation services significantly increased from 14.4% in 2007 to 37.1% in 2013. The trends were also significant in children aged 0 to 10 and 11 to 17 years, in boys and girls, and in rural participants. From 2007 to 2013, rehabilitation services utilization increased at an annual rate of 22.39% (95% confidence interval, 18.11%-26.82%) in the total sample. The rise was only significant in rural rather than urban individuals, resulting in the urban-rural gap in rehabilitation services use being narrowed. However, minority populations and those without health insurance still received fewer rehabilitation services than their respective counterparts. There were upward trends in rehabilitation services use in participants over time, and the urban-rural gap was narrowed. However, there were still socioeconomic differences on rehabilitation services use among children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Editorial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

The two articles in this issue of the European Physical Journal Special Topics cover topics in Econophysics and GPU computing in the last years. In the first article [1], the formation of market prices for financial assets is described which can be understood as superposition of individual actions of market participants, in which they provide cumulative supply and demand. This concept of macroscopic properties emerging from microscopic interactions among the various subcomponents of the overall system is also well-known in statistical physics. The distribution of price changes in financial markets is clearly non-Gaussian leading to distinct features of the price process, such as scaling behavior, non-trivial correlation functions and clustered volatility. This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Integrated stratigraphy and astronomical tuning of Smirra cores, lower Eocene, Umbria-Marche basin, Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauretano, Vittoria; Turtù, Antonio; Hilgen, Frits; Galeotti, Simone; Catanzariti, Rita; Reichart, Gert Jan; Lourens, Lucas J.

2016-04-01

The early Eocene represents an ideal case study to analyse the impact of increase global warming on the ocean-atmosphere system. During this time interval, the Earth's surface experienced a long-term warming trend that culminated in a period of sustained high temperatures called the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). These perturbations of the ocean-atmosphere system involved the global carbon cycle and global temperatures and have been linked to orbital forcing. Unravelling this complex climatic system strictly depends on the availability of high-quality suitable geological records and accurate age models. However, discrepancies between the astrochronological and radioisotopic dating techniques complicate the development of a robust time scale for the early Eocene (49-54 Ma). Here we present the first magneto-, bio-, chemo- and cyclostratigraphic results of the drilling of the land-based Smirra section, in the Umbria Marche Basin. The sediments recovered at Smirra provide a remarkably well-preserved and undisturbed succession of the early Palaeogene pelagic stratigraphy. Bulk stable carbon isotope and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) scanning records are employed in the construction of an astronomically tuned age model for the time interval between ~49 and ~54 Ma based on the tuning to long-eccentricity. These results are then compared to the astronomical tuning of the benthic carbon isotope record of ODP Site 1263 to evaluate the different age model options and improve the time scale of the early Eocene by assessing the precise number of eccentricity-related cycles comprised in this critical interval.

Population-based case-control study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in western Washington State. II. Diet.

PubMed

Nelson, L M; Matkin, C; Longstreth, W T; McGuire, V

2000-01-15

The association of nutrient intake with the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) was investigated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three counties of western Washington State from 1990 to 1994. Incident ALS cases (n = 161) were identified and individually matched on age and gender to population controls (n = 321). A self-administered food frequency questionnaire was used to assess nutrient intake. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to compute odds ratios adjusted for education, smoking, and total energy intake. The authors found that dietary fat intake was associated with an increased risk of ALS (highest vs. lowest quartile, fiber-adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9, 8.0; p for trend = 0.06), while dietary fiber intake was associated with a decreased risk of ALS (highest vs. lowest quartile, fat-adjusted OR = 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.7; p for trend = 0.02). Glutamate intake was associated with an increased risk of ALS (adjusted OR for highest vs. lowest quartile = 3.2, 95% CI: 1.2, 8.0; p for trend < 0.02). Consumption of antioxidant vitamins from diet or supplement sources did not alter the risk. The positive association with glutamate intake is consistent with the etiologic theory that implicates glutamate excitotoxicity in the pathogenesis of ALS, whereas the associations with fat and fiber intake warrant further study and biologic explanation.

Seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in women: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Michikawa, Takehiro; Inoue, Manami; Shimazu, Taichi; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-05-01

Iodine is a suspected risk factor for thyroid cancer. Seaweed accounts for about 80% of Japanese people's iodine intake. We examined the association between seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in Japanese women. Women participating in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (n=52 679; age: 40-69 years) were followed up for a mean of 14.5 years; 134 new thyroid cancer cases, including 113 papillary carcinoma cases, were identified. Seaweed consumption was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire and divided into three categories: 2 days/week or less (reference); 3-4 days/week; and almost daily. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seaweed consumption was clearly associated with an increased risk of papillary carcinoma (HR for almost daily consumption compared with 2 days/week or less=1.71; 95% CI: 1.01-2.90; trend P=0.04). After stratification for menopausal status, an increased risk was observed in postmenopausal women (papillary carcinoma HR for almost daily consumption compared with 2 days/week or less=3.81, 95% CI: 1.67-8.68; trend P<0.01), but not in premenopausal women (HR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.44-1.91; trend P=0.76). This study identified a positive association between seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer (especially for papillary carcinoma) in postmenopausal women.

Environmental trends in extinction during the Paleozoic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.

1987-01-01

Extinction intensities calculated from 505 Paleozoic marine assemblages divided among six environmental zones and 40 stratigraphic intervals indicate that whole communities exhibit increasing extinction offshore but that genera within individual taxonomic classes tend to have their highest extinction onshore. The offshore trend at the community level results from a concentration of genera in classes with low characteristic extinction rates in nearshore environments. This finding is consistent with the ecologic expectation that organisms inhabiting unpredictably fluctuating environments should suffer more extinction than counterparts living under more predictably equitable conditions.

Trends in hysterectomy rates among women veterans in the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

PubMed

Katon, Jodie G; Gray, Kristen; Callegari, Lisa; Gardella, Carolyn; Gibson, Carolyn; Ma, Erica; Lynch, Kristine E; Zephyrin, Laurie

2017-10-01

Prior studies demonstrate a higher prevalence of hysterectomy among veterans compared with nonveterans. While studies identify overall decreasing hysterectomy rates in the United States, none report rates of hysterectomy among women veterans. Given the increasing numbers of women veterans using Veterans Affairs health care, there is an ongoing need to ensure high-quality gynecology care. Therefore, it is important to examine current hysterectomy trends, including proportion of minimally invasive surgeries, among veterans using Veterans Affairs health care. Our objective was to describe hysterectomy trends and utilization of minimally invasive hysterectomy in the Veterans Affairs healthcare system. This longitudinal study used Veterans Affairs clinical and administrative data from fiscal year 2008 to 2014 to identify hysterectomies provided or paid for by Veterans Affairs. Crude and age-adjusted hysterectomy rates were calculated by indication (benign or malignant), mode (abdominal, laparoscopic, vaginal, robotic assisted, unspecified), and source of care (provided vs paid for by Veterans Affairs). Mode and indication for hysterectomy were classified using International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, codes. The distribution of hysterectomy mode in each year was calculated by indication and source of care. Between fiscal year 2008 and fiscal year 2014, the total hysterectomy rate decreased from 4.0 per 1000 to 2.6 per 1000 unique women veteran Veterans Affairs users. Age-adjusted rates of abdominal hysterectomy for benign indications decreased over the study period from 1.54 per 1000 (95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.69) to 0.77 per 1000 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.85) for procedures provided by Veterans Affairs and 0.77 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.85) to 0.29 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.34) for those paid for by Veterans Affairs. Among hysterectomies for benign indications provided by (n = 5296) or paid for (n = 2610) by Veterans Affairs, the percentage of hysterectomies performed abdominally decreased from 67.2% to 46.8% and from 68.9% to 57.6%, respectively. These findings suggest that gynecology care provided within Veterans Affairs has kept pace with national trends in reducing hysterectomy rates and increasing utilization of minimally invasive surgical techniques. Published by Elsevier Inc.

High-resolution paleoclimatic analysis of a paleosol-bearing alluvial succesion, Plio-Pleistocene of Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beilinson, Elisa; Sol Raigemborn, María

2013-04-01

Plio-Pleistocene paleosol-bearing alluvial strata of the Punta San Andrés Alloformation are continuously exposed along the marine cliffs of south-eastern Buenos Aires province, Argentina. Outcrops are dominated by floodplain siltstones and mudstones that exhibit a cyclic alternation between weakly to well-developed calcisols, vertisols and protosols. The study interval was deposited by a mixed, predominantly suspended-load fluvial system. The aim of this presentation is to determinate whether the evolution of the different types of paleosols was controlled by cyclic climatic changes in relation to the climatic deterioration that was registered during the Plio-Pleistocene of southern South America. The studied unit is composed of a two-tier cyclic stratal hierarchy produced by the combined effects of autogenic and allogenic processes. The lower hierarchy was identified as meter-scale fluvial aggradational cycles. All together, the four identified cycles make up the higher, decameter-scale hierarchy. This is dominated by sandstone bodies encased in paleosol-rich floodplain deposits that change their relative participation from base to top, towards more channelized deposits. This fluvial succession is disconformably bounded, and was possibly generated in response to fourth-order episodes of eustatic sea-level rise and fall in the Atlantic Ocean. Identified paleosols show a general trend from protosols to an alternation between vertisols and gradually better developed calcisols. In general, all the identified paleosol-types are characterized by the presence of carbonate cements, absence of redness of hue, low to moderate CIA-K values and a low alumina/bases ratio. All these suggests a weak base loss from the original soil and that the chemical weathering was low to moderate. This probably involved cool to temperate climates and a relatively low water percolation rate through feldspar and other weatherable minerals in soil parent material. The predominant occurrence of illite and I/S mixed-layer in all the studied paleosols suggests that mechanical erosion prevailed over chemical weathering. However, the presence of smectite and kaolinite in moderate to low concentrations indicates that some degree of chemical weathering must have taken place in these paleosols. The stratigraphic arrangement of the recognized paleosols and the clay mineral distribution indicates that paleoclimate during the deposition of the lower Punta San Andrés Alloformation was subhumid, (average MAP ~ 700 mm), seasonal and temperate (average MAT ~7.7°C) for at least 1 Ma (late Pliocene-early Pleistocene), although with several intervals where conditions became drier and probably colder. All the paleoclimatic indicators show a certain degree of homogeneity. However, it is possible to establish a general trend in the climatic evolution registered in the paleosols to relatively less humid and warmer conditions towards the top of the studied interval. This identified climatic trend in the lower Punta San Andrés Alloformation deposits constitutes a proxy for late Pliocene to early Pleistocene climate from southern South America.

Association Between Serum 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Levels and Blood Pressure Among Adolescents in Two Resource-Limited Settings in Peru.

PubMed

Tomaino, Katherine; Romero, Karina M; Robinson, Colin L; Baumann, Lauren M; Hansel, Nadia N; Pollard, Suzanne L; Gilman, Robert H; Mougey, Edward; Lima, John J; Checkley, William

2015-08-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) deficiency (<50 nmol/l or 20 ng/ml) has been associated with increased blood pressure (BP) in observational studies. A paucity of data on this relationship is available in Latin American or child populations. This study investigates the association between 25OHD levels and BP in adolescents at risk for vitamin D deficiency in 2 Peruvian settings. In a population-based study of 1,441 Peruvian adolescents aged 13-15 years, 1,074 (75%) provided a serum blood sample for 25OHD analysis and BP measurements. Relationships between 25OHD and BP metrics were assessed using multiple linear regressions, adjusted for anthropometrics and sociodemographic factors. 25OHD deficiency was associated with an elevated diastolic BP (DBP) (1.09 mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.04 to 2.14; P = 0.04) compared to nondeficient adolescents. Systolic BP (SBP) trended to increase with vitamin D deficiency (1.30 mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 2.72; P = 0.08). Mean arterial pressure (MAP) was also greater in adolescents with 25OHD (1.16 mm Hg increase, 95% confidence interval: 0.10 to 2.22; P = 0.03). SBP was found to demonstrate a U-shaped relationship with 25OHD, while DBP and MAP demonstrated inverse J-shaped relationships with serum 25OHD status. The association between 25OHD deficiency and BP was not different across study sites (all P ≥ 0.19). Adolescents deficient in 25OHD demonstrated increased DBP and MAP and a trend toward increased SBP, when compared to nondeficient subjects. 25OHD deficiency early in life was associated with elevated BP metrics, which may predispose risk of hypertension later in adulthood. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Joint Association of Low Vitamin D and Vitamin K Status With Blood Pressure and Hypertension.

PubMed

van Ballegooijen, Adriana J; Cepelis, Aivaras; Visser, Marjolein; Brouwer, Ingeborg A; van Schoor, Natasja M; Beulens, Joline W

2017-06-01

Low vitamin D and K status are both associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. New evidence from experimental studies on bone health suggest an interaction between vitamin D and K; however, a joint association with vascular health outcomes is largely unknown. To prospectively investigate whether the combination of low vitamin D and K status is associated with higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 402 participants and with incident hypertension in 231 participants free of hypertension at baseline. We used data from a subsample of the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam, a population-based cohort of Dutch participants aged 55 to 65 years. Vitamin D and K status were assessed by 25-hydroxyvitamin D and dp-ucMGP (dephosphorylated uncarboxylated matrix gla protein) concentrations (high dp-ucMGP is indicative for low vitamin K status) in stored samples from 2002 to 2003. Vitamin D and K status were categorized into 25-hydroxyvitamin D <50/≥50 mmol/L and median dp-ucMGP <323/≥323 pmol/L. During a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 62% of the participants (n=143) developed hypertension. The combination of low vitamin D and K status was associated with increased systolic 4.8 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 0.1-9.5) and diastolic 3.1 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 0.5-5.7) blood pressure compared with high vitamin D and K status ( P for interaction =0.013 for systolic blood pressure and 0.068 for diastolic blood pressure). A similar trend was seen for incident hypertension: hazard ratio=1.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.96-2.73) for the low vitamin D and K group. The combination of low vitamin D and K status was associated with increased blood pressure and a trend for greater hypertension risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

PubMed

Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

2016-01-01

Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where persons at risk for work disability can be identified and early preventive measures initiated.

Residential magnetic fields predicted from wiring configurations: II. Relationships To childhood leukemia.

PubMed

Thomas, D C; Bowman, J D; Jiang, L; Jiang, F; Peters, J M

1999-10-01

Case-control data on childhood leukemia in Los Angeles County were reanalyzed with residential magnetic fields predicted from the wiring configurations of nearby transmission and distribution lines. As described in a companion paper, the 24-h means of the magnetic field's magnitude in subjects' homes were predicted by a physically based regression model that had been fitted to 24-h measurements and wiring data. In addition, magnetic field exposures were adjusted for the most likely form of exposure assessment errors: classic errors for the 24-h measurements and Berkson errors for the predictions from wire configurations. Although the measured fields had no association with childhood leukemia (P for trend=.88), the risks were significant for predicted magnetic fields above 1.25 mG (odds ratio=2.00, 95% confidence interval=1.03-3.89), and a significant dose-response was seen (P for trend=.02). When exposures were determined by a combination of predictions and measurements that corrects for errors, the odds ratio (odd ratio=2.19, 95% confidence interval=1.12-4.31) and the trend (p =.007) showed somewhat greater significance. These findings support the hypothesis that magnetic fields from electrical lines are causally related to childhood leukemia but that this association has been inconsistent among epidemiologic studies due to different types of exposure assessment error. In these data, the leukemia risks from a child's residential magnetic field exposure appears to be better assessed by wire configurations than by 24-h area measurements. However, the predicted fields only partially account for the effect of the Wertheimer-Leeper wire code in a multivariate analysis and do not completely explain why these wire codes have been so often associated with childhood leukemia. The most plausible explanation for our findings is that the causal factor is another magnetic field exposure metric correlated to both wire code and the field's time-averaged magnitude. Copyright 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A multicenter dose-escalation study of the analgesic and adverse effects of an oral cannabis extract (Cannador) for postoperative pain management.

PubMed

Holdcroft, Anita; Maze, Mervyn; Doré, Caroline; Tebbs, Susan; Thompson, Simon

2006-05-01

Cannabinoids have dose-related antinociceptive effects in animals. This clinical study aimed to investigate whether a single oral dose of cannabis plant extract (Cannador; Institute for Clinical Research, IKF, Berlin, Germany) could provide pain relief with minimal side effects for postoperative pain. Patients (aged 18-75 yr) were recruited and consented before surgery if patient-controlled analgesia was planned for provision of postoperative pain relief. Each patient received a single dose of 5, 10, or 15 mg Cannador if he or she had at least moderate pain after stopping patient-controlled analgesia. Starting with 5 mg, dose escalation was based on the number of patients requesting rescue analgesia and adverse effects. Pain relief, pain intensity, and side effects were recorded over 6 h and analyzed using tests for trend with dose. Rescue analgesia was requested by all 11 patients (100%) receiving 5 mg, 15 of 30 patient (50%) receiving 10 mg, and 6 of 24 patients (25%) receiving 15 mg Cannador (log rank test for trend in time to rescue analgesia with dose P < 0.001). There were also significant trends across the escalating dose groups for decreasing pain intensity at rest (P = 0.01), increasing sedation (P = 0.03), and more adverse events (P = 0.002). The number needed to treat to prevent one rescue analgesia request for the 10-mg and 15-mg doses, relative to 5 mg, were 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.1) and 1.3 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.7), respectively. The study was terminated because of a serious vasovagal adverse event in a patient receiving 15 mg. These significant dose-related improvements in rescue analgesia requirements in the 10 mg and 15 mg groups provide a number needed to treat that is equivalent to many routinely used analgesics without frequent adverse effects.

Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

2016-01-01

Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967–1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26–1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967–1976. In conclusion, health problems—in particular mental problems—during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where persons at risk for work disability can be identified and early preventive measures initiated. PMID:27533052

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Time-trend analysis and developing a forecasting model for the prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, southwest of Iran.

PubMed

Mousavizadeh, A; Dastoorpoor, M; Naimi, E; Dohrabpour, K

2018-01-01

This study was designed and implemented to assess the current situation and to estimate the time trend of multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as to explain potential factors associated with such a trend. This longitudinal study was carried out based on analysis of the data from the monitoring and treatment surveillance system for 421 patients with MS in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran, from 1990 to 2015. To this end, curve estimation approach was used to investigate the changes in prevalence and incidence of the disease, and univariate time series model analysis was applied in order to estimate the disease incidence in the next 10 years. The mean and standard deviation of age were 29.78 and 8.5 years at the time of diagnosis, and the mean and 95% confidence interval of age were 29.18 (28.86-30.77) and 29.68 (28.06-31.30) at the time of diagnosis for women and men, respectively. The sex ratio (males to females) was estimated as 3.3, and the prevalence of the disease was estimated as 60.14 in 100,000 people. The diagram of the 35-year trend of the disease indicated three distinct patterns with a tendency to increase in recent years. The prevalence and incidence trend of the disease in the study population is consistent with regional and global changes. Climatic and environmental factors such as extreme weather changes, dust particles, expansion of the application of new industrial materials, and regional wars with potential use of banned weapons are among the issues that may, in part, be able to justify the global and regional changes of the disease. Predictive models indicate a growing trend of the disease, highlighting the need for more regular monitoring of the disease trend in upcoming years. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wildfires Dynamics in Siberian Larch Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponomarev, Evgenii I.; Kharuk, Viacheslav I.; Ranson, Kenneth J.

2016-01-01

Wildfire number and burned area temporal dynamics within all of Siberia and along a south-north transect in central Siberia (45deg-73degN) were studied based on NOAA/AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and Terra/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data and field measurements for the period 1996-2015. In addition, fire return interval (FRI) along the south-north transect was analyzed. Both the number of forest fires and the size of the burned area increased during recent decades (p < 0.05). Significant correlations were found between forest fires, burned areas and air temperature (r = 0.5) and drought index (The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) (r = 0.43). Within larch stands along the transect, wildfire frequency was strongly correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.91). Fire danger period length decreased linearly from south to north along the transect. Fire return interval increased from 80 years at 62 N to 200 years at the Arctic Circle (6633' N), and to about 300 years near the northern limit of closed forest stands (about 71+ N). That increase was negatively correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = 0.95). Keywords: wildfires; drought index; larch stands; fire return interval; fire frequency; burned area; climate-induced trends in Siberian wildfires

Osteoprotegerin is associated with hip fracture incidence: the Tromso Study.

PubMed

Jørgensen, Lone; Hansen, John-Bjarne; Ahmed, Luai; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Emaus, Nina; Joakimsen, Ragnar; Mathiesen, Ellisiv; Størmer, Jan; Vik, Anders; Jacobsen, Bjarne K

2012-08-01

Osteoprotegerin (OPG) is a cytokine essential for the regulation of bone resorption, but large longitudinal studies on its relationship to fracture risk in humans are lacking. In this population-based study of 2740 men and 2857 post-menopausal women, it was examined whether serum OPG was associated with hip fracture incidence. The participants were followed for 15 years. Baseline measurements included height, weight and serum OPG, and information about lifestyle, prevalent diseases and use of medication. Men with OPG in the highest quartile were 2.79-fold [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34-5.82] more likely to have a hip fracture during follow-up, compared with those with OPG in the lowest quartile (P-trend over OPG quartiles ≤ 0.001, after adjustments for age and other confounders). In women not using post-menopausal hormone therapy (HT), the risk of hip fracture was 1.64-fold higher (95% CI 0.94-2.86) in the highest quartile compared with the lowest OPG quartile (P-trend over OPG quartiles = 0.05). No relationship was found in post-menopausal women using HT (P-trend over OPG quartiles = 0.23). In men, OPG was positively associated with the incidence of hip fracture. In post-menopausal women not using HT a similar, but weaker, relationship was found.

Childhood Cancer Incidence Trends in Association With US Folic Acid Fortification (1986–2008)

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kimberly J.; Ross, Julie A.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Epidemiologic evidence indicates that prenatal vitamin supplementation reduces risk for some childhood cancers; however, a systematic evaluation of population-based childhood cancer incidence trends after fortification of enriched grain products with folic acid in the United States in 1996–1998 has not been previously reported. Here we describe temporal trends in childhood cancer incidence in association with US folic acid fortification. METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data (1986–2008), we calculated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals to compare pre- and postfortification cancer incidence rates in children aged 0 to 4 years. Incidence trends were also evaluated by using joinpoint and loess regression models. RESULTS: From 1986 through 2008, 8829 children aged 0 to 4 years were diagnosed with malignancies, including 3790 and 3299 in utero during the pre- and postfortification periods, respectively. Pre- and postfortification incidence rates were similar for all cancers combined and for most specific cancer types. Rates of Wilms tumor (WT), primitive neuroectodermal tumors (PNETs), and ependymomas were significantly lower postfortification. Joinpoint regression models detected increasing WT incidence from 1986 through 1997 followed by a sizable decline from 1997 through 2008, and increasing PNET incidence from 1986 through 1993 followed by a sharp decrease from 1993 through 2008. Loess curves indicated similar patterns. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide support for a decrease in WT and possibly PNET incidence, but not other childhood cancers, after US folic acid fortification. PMID:22614769

Monetary diet cost is positively associated with diet quality and obesity: an analysis of school-aged children in Southwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao; Gong, Yunhui; Jia, Peng; Zhang, Jieyi; Xue, Hongmei; Quan, Liming; Tian, Guo; Xiong, Jingyuan; Zhang, Lishi; Wang, Yu; Zhang, Lin; Cheng, Guo

2018-06-18

Little is known about the relationships between diet cost, dietary intake and obesity in Chinese populations. This study explored how diet cost was related to diet quality and obesity among school-aged children in Southwest China. Data from a cross-sectional study was analysed. Diet cost was estimated based on dietary intake assessed with 24-h dietary recalls and retail food prices. Diet quality was measured using the Chinese Children Dietary Index. Body height, weight, waist circumference and skinfold thicknesses were measured, and their body mass index standard deviation score (BMISDS), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) were calculated. Multivariate regression models were used to explore the relevance of diet cost to diet quality and obesity. After adjustment for potential confounders, a positive association was observed between diet quality and energy-adjusted diet cost (β = 0.143, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.014-0.285, Pfor-trend = 0.0006). Energy-adjusted diet cost also showed a positive association with FMI (β = 0.0354, 95% CI: 0.0001-0.0709, Pfor-trend = 0.01), BMISDS (β = 0.0200, 95% CI: 0.0006-0.0394, Pfor-trend = 0.002) and WHtR (β = 0.0010, 95% CI: 0.0003-0.0017, Pfor-trend = 0.02). Energy-adjusted diet cost was independently and positively associated with diet quality and obesity among Chinese school-aged children.

High-density lipoprotein particle subclass heterogeneity and incident coronary heart disease.

PubMed

Akinkuolie, Akintunde O; Paynter, Nina P; Padmanabhan, Latha; Mora, Samia

2014-01-01

Raising the cholesterol of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles is targeted as a cardiovascular disease prevention strategy. However, HDL particles are heterogeneous in composition and structure, which may relate to differences in antiatherogenic potential. We prospectively evaluated the association of HDL subclasses, defined by a recently proposed nomenclature, with incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Baseline HDL particle concentrations were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and categorized into 5 subclasses (very large, large, medium, small, and very small) among 26 332 initially healthy women. During a median follow-up of 17 years, 969 cases of incident CHD (myocardial infarction, revascularization, and CHD death) were ascertained. In Cox models that adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, blood pressure, smoking, postmenopausal status, and hormone therapy, associations with incident CHD were inverse (P trend<0.0001) for concentrations of very large (hazard ratio for top versus bottom quartile, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.41-0.60), large (0.54; 0.45-0.64), and medium (0.69; 0.58-0.83) HDL subclasses. Conversely, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for small and very small HDL were 1.22 (1.01-1.46; P trend=0.08) and 1.67 (1.39-2.02; P trend<0.0001), respectively. However, after additionally adjusting for metabolic and lipoprotein variables, associations for the spectrum of large, medium, and small HDL subclasses were inverse (P trend<0.05 for large and small and 0.07 for medium), whereas subclasses at either end of the spectrum were not associated with CHD (P trend=0.97 for very large and 0.21 for very small HDL). In this prospective study, associations with incident CHD differed by HDL particle subclass, which may be relevant for developing HDL-modulating therapies. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000479.

Population based study of rates of multiple pregnancies in Denmark, 1980-94.

PubMed Central

Westergaard, T.; Wohlfahrt, J.; Aaby, P.; Melbye, M.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To study trends in multiple pregnancies not explained by changes in maternal age and parity patterns. DESIGN: Trends in population based figures for multiple pregnancies in Denmark studied from complete national records on parity history and vital status. POPULATION: 497,979 Danish women and 803,019 pregnancies, 1980-94. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: National rates of multiple pregnancies, infant mortality, and stillbirths controlled for maternal age and parity. Special emphasis on primiparous women > or = 30 years of age, who are most likely to undergo fertility treatment. RESULTS: The national incidence of multiple pregnancies increased 1.7-fold during 1980-94, the increase primarily in 1989-94 and almost exclusively in primiparous women aged > or = 30 years, for whom the adjusted population based twinning rate increased 2.7-fold and the triplet rate 9.1-fold. During 1989-94, the adjusted yearly increase in multiple pregnancies for these women was 19% (95% confidence interval 16% to 21%) and in dizygotic twin pregnancies 25% (21% to 28%). The proportion of multiple births among infant deaths in primiparous women > or = 30 years increased from 11.5% to 26.9% during the study period. The total infant mortality, however, did not increase for these women because of a simultaneous significant decrease in infant mortality among singletons. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively small group of women has drastically changed the overall national rates of multiple pregnancies. The introduction of new treatments to enhance fertility has probably caused these changes and has also affected the otherwise decreasing trend in infant mortality. Consequently, the resources, both economical and otherwise, associated with these treatments go well beyond those invested in specific fertility enhancing treatments. PMID:9080993

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 and Kidney Disease Progression in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Chonchol, Michel; Gitomer, Berenice; Isakova, Tamara; Cai, Xuan; Salusky, Isidro; Pereira, Renata; Abebe, Kaleab; Torres, Vicente; Steinman, Theodor I; Grantham, Jared J; Chapman, Arlene B; Schrier, Robert W; Wolf, Myles

2017-09-07

Increases in fibroblast growth factor 23 precede kidney function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease; however, the role of fibroblast growth factor 23 in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease has not been well characterized. We measured intact fibroblast growth factor 23 levels in baseline serum samples from 1002 participants in the HALT-PKD Study A ( n =540; mean eGFR =91±17 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ) and B ( n =462; mean eGFR =48±12 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ). We used linear mixed and Cox proportional hazards models to test associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 and eGFR decline, percentage change in height-adjusted total kidney volume, and composite of time to 50% reduction in eGFR, onset of ESRD, or death. Median (interquartile range) intact fibroblast growth factor 23 was 44 (33-56) pg/ml in HALT-PKD Study A and 69 (50-93) pg/ml in Study B. In adjusted models, annualized eGFR decline was significantly faster in the upper fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile (Study A: quartile 4, -3.62; 95% confidence interval, -4.12 to -3.12 versus quartile 1, -2.51; 95% confidence interval, -2.71 to -2.30 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001; Study B: quartile 4, -3.74; 95% confidence interval, -4.14 to -3.34 versus quartile 1, -2.78; 95% confidence interval, -2.92 to -2.63 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 ; P for trend <0.001). In Study A, higher fibroblast growth factor 23 quartiles were associated with greater longitudinal percentage increase in height-adjusted total kidney volume in adjusted models (quartile 4, 6.76; 95% confidence interval, 5.57 to 7.96 versus quartile 1, 6.04; 95% confidence interval, 5.55 to 6.54; P for trend =0.03). In Study B, compared with the lowest quartile, the highest fibroblast growth factor 23 quartile was associated with elevated risk for the composite outcome (hazard ratio, 3.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.84 to 5.25). Addition of fibroblast growth factor 23 to a model of annualized decline in eGFR≥3.0 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 did not improve risk prediction. Higher serum fibroblast growth factor 23 concentration was associated with kidney function decline, height-adjusted total kidney volume percentage increase, and death in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. However, fibroblast growth factor 23 did not substantially improve prediction of rapid kidney function decline. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Finding Intervals of Abrupt Change in Earth Science Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, X.; Shekhar, S.; Liess, S.

2011-12-01

In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset reasonably fast. In earth science data (e.g., climate data), it is often observed that a persistently abrupt change in value occurs in a certain time-period or spatial interval. For example, abrupt climate change is defined as an unusually large shift of precipitation, temperature, etc, that occurs during a relatively short time period. A similar change pattern can also be found in geographical space, representing a sharp transition of the environment (e.g., vegetation between different ecological zones). Identifying such intervals of change from earth science datasets is a crucial step for understanding and attributing the underlying phenomenon. However, inconsistencies in these noisy datasets can obstruct the major change trend, and more importantly can complicate the search of the beginning and end points of the interval of change. Also, the large volume of data makes it challenging to process the dataset fast. In this work, we analyze earth science data using a novel, automated data mining approach to identify spatial/temporal intervals of persistent, abrupt change. We first propose a statistical model to quantitatively evaluate the change abruptness and persistence in an interval. Then we design an algorithm to exhaustively examine all the intervals using this model. Intervals passing a threshold test will be kept as final results. We evaluate the proposed method with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) precipitation data, whereby we focus on the Sahel rainfall index. Results show that this method can find periods of persistent and abrupt value changes with different temporal scales. We also further optimize the algorithm using a smart strategy, which always examines longer intervals before its subsets. By doing this, we reduce the computational cost to only one third of that of the original algorithm for the above test case. More significantly, the optimized algorithm is also proven to scale up well with data volume and number of changes. Particularly, it achieves better performance when dealing with longer change intervals.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality and in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portugal.

PubMed

Morais, Samantha; Ferro, Ana; Bastos, Ana; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Peleteiro, Bárbara

2016-07-01

Portugal has the highest gastric cancer mortality rates in Western Europe, along with high prevalences of Helicobacter pylori infection. Monitoring their trends is essential to predict the burden of this cancer. We aimed to quantify time trends in gastric cancer mortality in Portugal and in each administrative region, and to compute short-term predictions, as well as to describe the prevalence of H. pylori infection, through a systematic review. Joinpoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in sex-specific trends in gastric cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and to estimate annual percent changes (APC). The most recent trends were considered to compute estimates up to 2020 by adjusting Poisson regression models. We searched PubMed and IndexRMP to identify studies carried out in Portugal reporting the prevalence of H. pylori. Gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since 1971 in men (from ASMR=55.3/100 000; APC=-2.4, 95% confidence interval: -2.5 to -2.3) and since 1970 in women (from ASMR=28.0/100 000; APC=-2.8, 95% confidence interval: -2.9 to -2.7), although large regional differences were observed. Predicted ASMR for 2015 and 2020 were 18.8/100 000 and 16.7/100 000 for men and 8.5/100 000 and 7.4/100 000 for women, respectively. The prevalence of H. pylori varied from almost 5% at 0.5-2 years to just over 90% at 70 years or more. No consistent variation was observed since the 1990s. The downward trends in mortality rates are expected to remain in the next decades. The high prevalence of H. pylori infection across age groups and studies from different periods shows a large potential for decrease in the burden of gastric cancer in Portugal.

China: Demographic Billionaire.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tien, H. Yuan

1983-01-01

This document reviews China's population trends and policies since the People's Republic was founded in 1949. Areas addressed include: population growth before 1949, population growth from 1949-1982, and policy responses to population growth (including wan xi shao: later marriages, longer intervals between birth, and fewer children); mortality…

Physical Properties of Gabbroic Rock Exposed in Oceanic Core Complexes- New Borehole Data From IODP Hole U1473A in the Indian Ocean and Prior Mid-Atlantic Ridge Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackman, D. K.; Ildefonse, B.; Abe, N.; Harding, A. J.; Guerin, G.

2016-12-01

IODP Expedition 360 to Atlantis Bank on the Southwest Indian Ridge obtained physical property measurements of the 800 m section drilled into the footwall of the oceanic core complex. Compressional velocity (Vp) of core samples range from 5.9-7.2 km/s throughout the hole, with no simple relation to either basic rock type or alteration. Some intervals show a local trend, for example a general increase from 6.7-7.1 km/s over the interval 280-400 mbsf, above a major fault zone at 411-462 mbsf. Below the fault zone, core sample Vp is lower on average (6.6 km/s) than it is in the upper part of the hole (6.8 km/s). Some of this decrease is due to locally greater alteration, but higher oxide content also contributes. Borehole logs show lower Vp shallower than 400 m (6.3-6.4 km/s) and close match to olivine gabbro values below the fault zone, due to higher alteration levels and greater shallow fracturing. Local trends of decreasing Vp, over 10's of m correspond to increasing sample porosity within veined or fractured intervals. Porosities of core in Hole U1473A are low overall (<4.5%) and more variable above 570 mbsf than below. Electrical resistivity of the wallrock tracks logged velocity pattern, dropping below 100 ohm-m in altered or fractured intervals 20-50 m thick and rising over 1000 ohm-m where fresher rock was recovered. The range of velocity, density, and resistivity at Hole U1473A are similar to those in the other deep boreholes from Atlantis Bank (ODP Hole 735B, 1105A) and slightly higher than Vp in the gabbroic core of Atlantis Massif in the Atlantic, Hole U1309D. This may reflect erosion of the detachment zone when the bank was exposed at sealevel. Atlantis Massif displays an increase in Vp from the seafloor to a fault zone at 750 mbsf ( 4.0-6.2 km/s), followed by fairly constant values ( 6.7 km/s) at greater depths, interrupted by a highly altered olivine-rich troctolite interval 1080-1200 mbsf where velocity is up to 1 km/s slower. New analysis of seismic anisotropy based on sonic logs does not show any systematic signature for either core complex, but there are a few intervals up to 10 m thick where anisotropy due to local deformation or dominant fracture direction may be indicated. The new and prior borehole data will be presented in the context of available geophysical, lithologic and alteration results.

Chordomas of the Skull Base, Mobile Spine, and Sacrum: An Epidemiologic Investigation of Presentation, Treatment, and Survival.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Bilsky, Mark H; Laufer, Ilya

2018-05-01

Chordomas are rare primary bone tumors that arise from the axial skeleton. Our objective was to analyze trends in radiation and surgery over time and determine location-based survival predictors for chordomas of the skull base, mobile spine, and sacrum. A retrospective cohort study of the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from 1973 to 2013 was conducted. All patients had histologically confirmed chordomas. The principal outcome measure was overall survival (OS). The cohort included 1616 patients: skull base (664), mobile spine (444), and sacrum (508). Skull base tumors presented earliest in life (47.4 years) and sacral tumors presented latest (62.7 years). Rates of radiation remained stable for skull base and mobile spine tumors but declined for sacral tumors (P = 0.006). Rates of surgical resection remained stable for skull base and sacral tumors but declined for mobile spine tumors (P = 0.046). Skull base chordomas had the longest median survival (162 months) compared with mobile spine (94 months) and sacral tumors (87 months). Being married was independently associated with improved OS for skull base tumors (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.99; P = 0.044). Surgical resection was independently associated with improved OS for sacral chordomas (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.69; P < 0.001). Surgical resection for mobile spine chordomas and radiation for sacral chordomas decreased over time. Patients with skull base tumors survived longer than did patients with mobile spine and sacral chordomas, and surgical resection was associated with improved survival in sacral chordomas only. Understanding the behavior of these tumors can help cranial and spinal surgeons improve treatment in this patient population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxley, Brian T.; Swieringa, Kurt A.; Capron, William R.

2012-01-01

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Detecting Changes in Newspaper Reporting of Suicide after a Statewide Social Marketing Campaign.

PubMed

Abbott, Michele; Ramchand, Rajeev; Chamberlin, Margaret; Marcellino, William

2018-06-01

A social marketing campaign was introduced in California in 2012, promoting media adherence to consensus-based guidelines on reporting about suicide. We examine adherence to these guidelines by applying quantitative scores to articles in California and a national control group in two six-month intervals prior to and following campaign implementation. Utilizing a difference-in-difference approach, we found no significant effect of the campaign, though the type of article content was a significant indicator of the overall score. Findings also demonstrated a nation-wide downward trend in the quality of reporting. Qualitative results suggest a need for more flexible guidelines in light of a technologically driven news culture.

Long-term trends in Chlamydia trachomatis infections and related outcomes in a U.S. managed care population.

PubMed

Scholes, Delia; Satterwhite, Catherine L; Yu, Onchee; Fine, David; Weinstock, Hillard; Berman, Stuart

2012-02-01

Given recent increasing case rates of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, we evaluated trends in chlamydia rates and related health outcomes in women and men aged 15 to 44 years who were enrolled in a Pacific Northwest health plan. We identified chlamydia, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy, and male urethritis cases occurring annually during 1997-2007 using computerized health plan databases, calculating rates per 100,000 person-years (py) by gender and 5-year age groups. We also calculated annual chlamydia testing rates. In women, chlamydia testing rates increased by approximately 23% (220 tests per 1000 py in 1997 to 270 tests per 1000 in 2007). Chlamydia diagnosis rates rose from 449 cases/100,000 py in 1997 to 806/100,000 in 2007, a 79% increase (P = 0.01). Increases were greatest during 2005-2007, also the period of major conversion to nucleic acid amplification test. PID rates in this interval declined steadily from 823 cases/100,000 py to 473/100,000 (P < 0.01). Ectopic pregnancy rates remained unchanged. In men, chlamydia testing rates increased nearly 3.5-fold, from 12 to 42 tests per 1000 py. Chlamydia rates for men also rose significantly throughout the study interval (from 91 cases/100,000 py to 218/100,000; P < 0.01) as did urethritis diagnosis rates (P < 0.01). Between 1997 and 2007, annual health plan chlamydia rates increased significantly for both women and men. These trends may be due in part to increased testing rates and increased use of more sensitive tests, but they likely do not explain the increased urethritis rates. During this same interval, we observed steady declines in PID rates, consistent with other national data sources.

A rising trend in the incidence of advanced gastric cancer in young Hispanic men.

PubMed

Merchant, Shaila J; Kim, Joseph; Choi, Audrey H; Sun, Virginia; Chao, Joseph; Nelson, Rebecca

2017-03-01

Although the incidence of gastric cancer has been decreasing, recent reports suggest an increased rate in select populations. We sought to evaluate trends in gastric cancer incidence to identify high-risk populations. Gastric cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2011 were computed with use of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. We evaluated trends in incidence rates by calculating the annual percent change (APC) across three age groups (20-49 years, 50-64 years, and 65 years or older) and four racial/ethnic groups (Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, blacks, and Asian/Pacific Islanders). We identified 41,428 patients with gastric cancer. For the entire cohort during the study period, the APC was decreased. When patients were grouped according to sex, the APC was flat or decreased in women regardless of age or race/ethnicity. The APC was also flat or decreased for all men except young Hispanic men (20-49 years), who had an increased APC of nearly 1.6 % (1.55 %, 95 % confidence interval 0.26-2.86 %). Furthermore, young Hispanic men were the only group to have increased incidence of stage IV disease (APC 4.34 %, 95 % confidence interval 2.76-5.94 %) and poorly differentiated tumors (APC 2.08 %, 95 % confidence interval 0.48-3.70 %). The APC of the incidence of gastric cancer in young Hispanic men places it among the top cancers with rising incidence in the USA. This is concomitant with increased incidence of advanced disease at presentation. This major public health concern warrants additional research to determine the cause of the increasing incidence in this group.

Clinical Use of Tobramycin Inhalation Solution (TOBI®) Shows Sustained Improvement in FEV1 in Cystic Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Konstan, Michael W.; Wagener, Jeffrey S.; Pasta, David J.; Millar, Stefanie J.; Morgan, Wayne J.

2014-01-01

Objectives Tobramycin inhalation solution (TIS; TOBI®) has improved forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) in cystic fibrosis (CF) trials. Using data from the Epidemiologic Study of CF (ESCF), we assessed the change in level and trend of FEV1 % predicted (pred) over a 2-year period associated with initiation of TIS during routine clinical practice. Methods Patients age 8–38 years and in ESCF for ≥2 years before treatment with TIS as a chronic therapy were selected if they remained on therapy for 2 years, defined as being on TIS for at least 3 months per year (C-TIS group). Comparator intervals age 8–38 years used TIS <10% of the time. For each interval, we estimated the level and trend (rate of decline) in FEV1 % pred before and after the index using a piecewise linear mixed-effects model adjusted for potential confounders. Results During the 2-year pre-index period the C-TIS group (n = 2,534) had a more rapid decline in FEV1 (−2.49 vs. −1.39 % pred/yr) and a lower FEV1 at index (62.6 vs. 74.7 % pred) than the comparator group (N = 17,656 intervals). After starting chronic TIS, the FEV1 trend line over the 2-year post-index period was higher, but the comparator group’s FEV1 was essentially unchanged (difference 2.22, P < 0.001). Change in slope was not different between groups (0.06, P = 0.82). Conclusions Initiating chronic TIS therapy in the routine clinical care of patients with CF was associated with improvement in FEV1 % pred but no change in rate of decline, which means that this benefit was sustained over the 2 years studied. PMID:24019211

Independent and Synergistic Associations of Biomarkers of Vitamin D Status With Risk of Coronary Heart Disease.

PubMed

Qi, Lu; Ma, Wenjie; Heianza, Yoriko; Zheng, Yan; Wang, Tiange; Sun, Dianjianyi; Rimm, Eric B; Hu, Frank B; Giovannucci, Edward; Albert, Christine M; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Manson, JoAnn E

2017-11-01

To comprehensively evaluate the independent associations and potential interactions of vitamin D-related biomarkers including total and bioavailable 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD), VDBP (vitamin D binding protein), and parathyroid hormone (PTH) with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We prospectively identified incident cases of nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal CHD among women in the Nurses' Health Study during 20 years of follow-up (1990-2010). Using risk-set sampling, 1 to 2 matched controls were selected for each case. The analysis of 25OHD and PTH included 382 cases and 575 controls; the analysis of VDBP included 396 cases and 398 controls. After multivariate adjustment, plasma levels of total 25OHD, bioavailable 25OHD, and PTH were not significantly associated with CHD risk. VDBP was associated with a lower CHD risk with an extreme-quartile odds ratio of 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.92; P trend=0.02). When examining the biomarkers jointly, a significant, inverse association between 25OHD and CHD was observed among participants with higher PTH levels ( P for interaction=0.02). The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest quartile of 25OHD to lowest was 0.43 (0.23-0.82; P trend=0.003) when PTH levels were above population median (35.3 pg/mL), whereas among the rest of participants the corresponding odds ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.28 (0.70-2.36; P trend=0.43). Our data suggest that higher 25OHD levels were associated with a lower CHD risk when PTH levels were high, whereas no association was observed for participants with low PTH levels. VDBP but not bioavailable 25OHD was independently associated with lower CHD risk. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Torres, David; Pericchi, Luis R; Mattei, Hernando; Zevallos, Juan C

2017-06-01

Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

Prevalence and Trends of Obesity among Chinese Korean Nationality Children and Adolescents, 1991–2010

PubMed Central

ZHAO, Chunhua; MA, Yana; PAN, Chenwei; CHEN, Xing; SUN, Hongpeng

2016-01-01

Background: Obesity has become a serious problem for Chinese Han nationality. This research aimed to evaluate the prevalence of and trends in obesity among Chinese Korean nationality children and adolescents (1991–2010). Methods: We used data from Chinese National Surveys on Students’ Constitution and Health (CNSSCH). CNSSCH was utilized to monitor Chinese students’ health condition and released its data every 5 yr (1991, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010). The standard weight-for-height was the 80th percentile for sex- and age-specific growth charts based on the 1985 CNSSCH data. Obesity was defined as ≧120% of standard weight-for-height. Results: The total age-adjusted prevalence of obesity was 15.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 14.9–16.9%) among Chinese Korean children and adolescents aged 7 to 18 yr. Children or adolescents who were boys (Rate ratios (RR), 1.35; 95% CI, 1.19–1.53) or aged 10–12 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.17–1.63) were more likely to be obese. The trend analysis of the 19-yr period implied a serious annual increasing trend during 1991–2000 (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.07) and during 2000–2010 (RR,, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11–1.13). Chinese Korean children may also be more likely to become obese than Han nationality children during 1991–2010. Conclusion: A serious and continuous increasing trend was in the prevalence of obesity among Chinese Korean children and adolescents during 1991–2010. Childhood obesity had become a serious problem. This prognosis is worrisome. PMID:27648414

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2013-06-01

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Emerging trends in surgical and adjuvant radiation therapies among women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ.

PubMed

Shiyanbola, Oyewale O; Sprague, Brian L; Hampton, John M; Dittus, Kim; James, Ted A; Herschorn, Sally; Gangnon, Ronald E; Weaver, Donald L; Trentham-Dietz, Amy

2016-09-15

The use of surgery and radiation therapy in treating ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is directed by treatment guidelines and evidence from research. This study investigated recent patterns in DCIS treatment by demographic factors. Data for women diagnosed with DCIS between 1998 and 2011 (n = 416,232) in the National Cancer Data Base were assessed for trends in treatment patterns by age group, calendar year, ancestral/ethnic group, and geographic region. The likelihood of receiving specific treatment modalities was analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. DCIS cases were most frequently treated with breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and adjuvant radiation (45.6%). After an initial rise, the use of adjuvant radiation after BCS plateaued at approximately 70% after 2007, with increasing utilization of mastectomy beyond 2005. In addition, there was an increasing trend in postmastectomy reconstruction over time, and women of African ancestry (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.72) and Hispanic women (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89) were less likely to undergo reconstruction in comparison with women of European ancestry. A similar trend was observed in contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy utilization, with women of European ancestry having a more rapid rise in the utilization of contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy in comparison with all other ancestral/ethnic groups. Recent trends demonstrate a plateau in radiation therapy administration after BCS along with increasing utilization of mastectomy, reconstruction, and contralateral risk-reducing mastectomy. There are substantial differences in treatment utilization according to ancestry/ethnicity and geographical region. Further studies examining patient-physician decision making surrounding DCIS treatment are warranted. Cancer 2016. © 2016 American Cancer Society. Cancer 2016;122:2810-2818. © 2016 American Cancer Society. © 2016 American Cancer Society.

Dietary acrylamide intake and risk of breast cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Kotemori, Ayaka; Ishihara, Junko; Zha, Ling; Liu, Rong; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sobue, Tomotaka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2018-03-01

Acrylamide forms during cooking and is classified as a probable carcinogen in humans, mandating the need for epidemiological studies of dietary acrylamide and cancers. However, the risk of dietary acrylamide exposure to breast cancer in Japanese women has not been assessed. We investigated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and risk of breast cancer in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study. The present study included 48 910 women aged 45-74 years who responded to a 5-year follow-up survey questionnaire. Dietary acrylamide intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. During an average of 15.4 years of follow up, 792 breast cancers were diagnosed. Energy-adjusted dietary acrylamide intake was not associated with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted hazard ratio for highest versus lowest tertile = .95, 95% confidence intervals: 0.79-1.14, P-trend = .58). Further, no significant associations were observed when stratified analyses were conducted by smoking status, coffee consumption, alcohol consumption, body mass index, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status, and progesterone receptor status. In conclusion, dietary acrylamide intake was not associated with the risk of breast cancer in this population-based prospective cohort study of Japanese women. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends.

PubMed

Bernard, Aude

2017-12-01

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.

Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Applications and Planning Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardrip, S. C.

1982-01-01

Proceedings of an annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Applications and Planning Meeting are summarized. A transparent view of the state-of-the-art, an opportunity to express needs, a view of important future trends, and a review of relevant past accomplishments were considered for PTTI managers, systems engineers, and program planner. Specific aims were: to provide PTTI users with new and useful applications, procedures, and techniques; to allow the PTTI researcher to better assess fruitful directions for research efforts.

Responses in reproductive organs, steroid hormones and CYP450 enzymes in female Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus) over time after quinestrol treatment.

PubMed

Su, Qian-Qian; Chen, Yi; Qin, Jiao; Wang, Tong-Liang; Wang, De-Hua; Liu, Quan-Sheng

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effects and reversibility of the synthetic estrogen compound, quinestrol, on the reproductive organs, steroid hormones, and drug-metabolizing enzymes CYP3A4 and CYP1A2 in liver and kidney over time after two quinestrol treatments in female Mongolian gerbils (Meriones unguiculatus). Female gerbils were treated with 4mg/kg quinestrol (9 gerbils/group, 3 treated group) (1 control group, 0mg/kg) for 3days and treated again after 25days. Animals were killed for collection of samples at 5, 10 and 15days after the second treatment ending. Two interval quinestrol treatments significantly increased uterine weight, with trend of increase over time, but no change could be detected in ovarian weights. Quinestrol treatment increased progesterone and estradiol levels, both with trend of decline over time. Quinestrol increased liver and kidney weights and total enzyme content of CYP3A4 and CYP1A2, with trend of decline over time. On the basis of reversible changes of detoxification enzymes or organs, interval quinestrol treatment effectively and reversibly influenced the reproductive hormone and organ to some extent. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A QI Initiative to Reduce Hospitalization for Children With Isolated Skull Fractures.

PubMed

Lyons, Todd W; Stack, Anne M; Monuteaux, Michael C; Parver, Stephanie L; Gordon, Catherine R; Gordon, Caroline D; Proctor, Mark R; Nigrovic, Lise E

2016-06-01

Although children with isolated skull fractures rarely require acute interventions, most are hospitalized. Our aim was to safely decrease the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures. We designed and executed this multifaceted quality improvement (QI) initiative between January 2008 and July 2015 to reduce hospitalization rates for children ≤21 years old with isolated skull fractures at a single tertiary care pediatric institution. We defined an isolated skull fracture as a skull fracture without intracranial injury. The QI intervention consisted of 2 steps: (1) development and implementation of an evidence-based guideline, and (2) dissemination of a provider survey designed to reinforce guideline awareness and adherence. Our primary outcome was hospitalization rate and our balancing measure was hospital readmission within 72 hours. We used standard statistical process control methodology to assess change over time. To assess for secular trends, we examined admission rates for children with an isolated skull fracture in the Pediatric Health Information System administrative database. We identified 321 children with an isolated skull fracture with a median age of 11 months (interquartile range 5-16 months). The baseline admission rate was 71% (179/249, 95% confidence interval, 66%-77%) and decreased to 46% (34/72, 95% confidence interval, 35%-60%) after implementation of our QI initiative. No child was readmitted after discharge. The admission rate in our secular trend control group remained unchanged at 78%. We safely reduced the hospitalization rate for children with isolated skull fractures without an increase in the readmissions. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Using ecological momentary assessment to determine media use by individuals with and without major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Primack, Brian A; Silk, Jennifer S; DeLozier, Christian R; Shadel, William G; Dillman Carpentier, Francesca R; Dahl, Ronald E; Switzer, Galen E

2011-04-01

To use ecological momentary assessment techniques to measure the association of major depressive disorder (MDD) with media use. Data were collected using an ecological momentary assessment protocol with cellular telephone-based brief interviews. Participants received as many as 60 telephone calls from a trained staff member during 5 extended weekends in an 8-week period. One hundred six adolescent participants who were part of a larger neurobehavioral study of depression in Pittsburgh from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2008. At each call, participants were asked whether they were using the following 5 types of media: television or movies, music, video games, Internet, and print media, such as magazines, newspapers, and books. We developed multivariable models to determine the independent association of each type of media use with MDD, controlling for sociodemographic variables. Of the 106 participants, 46 were diagnosed as having MDD. In multivariable models controlling for age, sex, and race, each increasing quartile of audio use was associated with an 80% increase in the odds of having MDD (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.8; P = .01 for trend). Conversely, each increasing quartile of print media use was associated with a 50% decrease in the odds of having MDD (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.3-0.9; P = .009 for trend). Major depressive disorder is positively associated with popular music exposure and negatively associated with reading print media such as books. Further research elucidating the directionality and strength of these relationships may help advance understanding of the relationships between media use and MDD.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Problems with the Fraser report Chapter 1: Pitfalls in BMI time trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Ernest

2014-11-05

The first chapter of the Fraser report "Obesity in Canada: Overstated Problems, Misguided Policy Solutions" presents a flawed and misleading analysis of BMI time trends. The objective of this commentary is to provide a tutorial on BMI time trend analysis through the examination of these flaws. Three issues are discussed: 1. Spotting regions of confidence interval overlap is a statistically flawed method of assessing trend; regression methods which measure the behaviour of the data as a whole are preferred. 2. Temporal stability in overweight (25≤BMI<30) prevalence must be interpreted in the context of the underlying population BMI distribution. 3. BMI is considered reliable for tracking population-level weight trends due to its high correlation with body fat percentage. BMI-defined obesity prevalence represents a conservative underestimate of the population at risk. The findings of the Fraser report Chapter 1 are either refuted or substantially mitigated once the above issues are accounted for, and we do not find that the 'Canadian situation largely lacks a disconcerting or negative trend', as claimed. It is hoped that this commentary will help guide public health professionals who need to interpret, or wish to perform their own, time trend analyses of BMI.

Evaluation of Gas Hydrate at Alaminos Canyon 810, Northern Gulf of Mexico Slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Cook, A.; Sawyer, D.; Hillman, J. I. T.

2016-12-01

We characterize the gas hydrate reservoir in Alaminos Canyon Block 810 (AC810) on the northern Gulf of Mexico slope, approximately 400 km southeast of Houston, Texas, USA. Three-dimensional seismic data shows a bottom-simulating-reflection (BSR), over 30 km2, which suggests that a significant gas hydrate accumulation may occur at AC810. Furthermore, logging while drilling (LWD) data acquired from a Statoil well located that penetrated the BSR near the crest of the regional anticline indicates two possible gas hydrate units (Hydrate Unit A and Hydrate Unit B). LWD data in this interval are limited to gamma ray and resistivity only. Resistivity curve separations are observed in Hydrate Unit A (131 to 253 mbsf) suggesting hydrate-filled fractures in marine mud. A spiky high resistivity response in Hydrate Unit B (308 to 354 mbsf) could either be a marine mud or a sand-prone interval. The abrupt decrease (from 7 to 1 Ωm) in resistivity logs at 357 mbsf generally corresponds with the interpreted base of hydrate stability, as the BSR is observed near 350 mbsf on the seismic data. To further investigate the formation characteristics, we generate synthetic traces using general velocity and density trends for marine sediments to match the seismic trace extracted at the Statoil well. We consider models with 1) free gas and 2) water only below the base of hydrate stability. In our free gas-below models, we find the velocity of Hydrate Unit A and Hydrate Unit B is generally low and does not deviate significantly from the general velocity trends, suggesting that gas hydrate is present in a marine mud. In the water-below model, the compressional velocity of Hydrate Unit B ranges from 2450 m/s to 3150 m/s. This velocity is similar to the velocity of high hydrate saturation in sand; typically greater than 2500 m/s. This may indicate that Hydrate Unit B is sand with high hydrate saturation; however, to achieve a suitable match between the water-below synthetic seismogram and the trace, a high velocity layer was required below the base of hydrate stability, which is not indicated by the well logs. Our models indicate that at AC810, Hydrate Unit A probably contains hydrate filled fractures in a marine mud. For Hydrate Unit B, our models suggest hydrate may occur in a sand-prone interval, but is more likely to be gas hydrate filled fractures in marine mud.

Trends in the location of the HIV-positive population in Australia: implications for access to healthcare services and delivery.

PubMed

Carman, Marina; Grierson, Jeffrey; Pitts, Marian; Hurley, Michael; Power, Jennifer

2010-06-01

Examining existing and potential trends in the HIV-positive population in Australia is important for current and future healthcare service development and delivery. A new analysis of existing data on this population from the HIV Futures 5 survey was based on linking a geographic breakdown of respondents based on 'area type'--capital city or inner suburban, outer suburban, regional centre and rural--with patterns of healthcare service access. In addition, the distance between the postcode of the respondent's residence and the postcode of the doctor seen for HIV-related treatment was calculated. An analysis of 'area type' by income and age was also conducted. The 'area type' analysis showed important differences in patterns of access to antiretroviral prescriptions and choice of provider for HIV-related and general healthcare. The median distance travelled to see a doctor for HIV-related treatment was higher for those living in outer suburbs than those living in regional centres. Differences in service use appear to be related to geographic accessibility of different service types. However, there may be other important social, economic and cultural factors involved. Ageing and socio-economic pressures may be influencing a move away from inner suburban areas where most HIV-specific care is located. This new analysis assists in finding the right balance between increasing the accessibility of HIV-specific services and 'mainstreaming'. Longitudinal data collection would further assist in tracking trends in geographic location, and how often and at what intervals people living with HIV utilise healthcare services.

Anthropometric factors and cutaneous melanoma: Prospective data from the population-based Janus Cohort.

PubMed

Stenehjem, Jo S; Veierød, Marit B; Nilsen, Lill Tove; Ghiasvand, Reza; Johnsen, Bjørn; Grimsrud, Tom K; Babigumira, Ronnie; Rees, Judith R; Robsahm, Trude E

2018-02-15

The aim of the present study was to prospectively examine risk of cutaneous melanoma (CM) according to measured anthropometric factors, adjusted for exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR), in a large population-based cohort in Norway. The Janus Cohort, including 292,851 Norwegians recruited 1972-2003, was linked to the Cancer Registry of Norway and followed for CM through 2014. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of CM with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Restricted cubic splines were incorporated into the Cox models to assess possible non-linear relationships. All analyses were adjusted for attained age, indicators of UVR exposure, education, and smoking status. During a mean follow-up of 27 years, 3,000 incident CM cases were identified. In men, CM risk was positively associated with body mass index, body surface area (BSA), height and weight (all p trends  < 0.001), and the exposure-response curves indicated an exponential increase in risk for all anthropometric factors. Weight loss of more than 2 kg in men was associated with a 53% lower risk (HR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.57). In women, CM risk increased with increasing BSA (p trend  = 0.002) and height (p trend  < 0.001). The shape of the height-CM risk curve indicated an exponential increase. Our study suggests that large body size, in general, is a CM risk factor in men, and is the first to report that weight loss may reduce the risk of CM among men. © 2017 UICC.

Effects of changes in dietary habits on colorectal cancer incidence in twenty countries from four continents during the period 1971-2002.

PubMed

Béjar, Luis M; Gili, Miguel; Infantes, Beatriz; Marcott, Pamela F

2011-10-01

the incidence of colorectal cancer is one of the highest on a global level. Many epidemiological studies have identified risk and protective factors, many of which have a behavioral component and, therefore, are potentially avoidable or subject to modification. This study investigated the incidence rates of colorectal cancer by gender in twenty different countries, taking into account the dietary habits of the habitants of each country. adjusted incidence rates, according to gender, were obtained for each country from the International Agency for Research on Cancer during the period 1971-2002.Annual per capita consumption data of the different dietary variables were obtained for the period 1961-2007 from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated comparing incidence rates according to gender with different dietary variable using ten-year delay intervals. there is an important variation in trends of colorectal cancer incidence worldwide which were found to be related with the dietary habits of each country. based on the trends observed, each country was classified into one of four different situations based on the range of values of their incidence rates and linear trends observed. Due to the potential of primary prevention programs for colorectal cancer and to the delay between changes in the exposure to risk and protective factors and the effects on the incidence of this tumor, the application of legislative and educational measures promoting a healthy diet has become an urgent issue to stop the increasing tendency of colorectal cancer reported worldwide.

Validation of algorithms to determine incidence of Hirschsprung disease in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study using health administrative data

PubMed Central

Nasr, Ahmed; Sullivan, Katrina J; Chan, Emily W; Wong, Coralie A; Benchimol, Eric I

2017-01-01

Objective Incidence rates of Hirschsprung disease (HD) vary by geographical region, yet no recent population-based estimate exists for Canada. The objective of our study was to validate and use health administrative data from Ontario, Canada to describe trends in incidence of HD between 1991 and 2013. Study design To identify children with HD we tested algorithms consisting of a combination of diagnostic, procedural, and intervention codes against the reference standard of abstracted clinical charts from a tertiary pediatric hospital. The algorithm with the highest positive predictive value (PPV) that could maintain high sensitivity was applied to health administrative data from April 31, 1991 to March 31, 2014 (fiscal years 1991–2013) to determine annual incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated using Poisson regression, controlling for sex as a covariate. Results The selected algorithm was highly sensitive (93.5%) and specific (>99.9%) with excellent predictive abilities (PPV 89.6% and negative predictive value >99.9%). Using the algorithm, a total of 679 patients diagnosed with HD were identified in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. The overall incidence during this time was 2.05 per 10,000 live births (or 1 in 4,868 live births). The incidence did not change significantly over time (odds ratio 0.998, 95% confidence interval 0.983–1.013, p = 0.80). Conclusion Ontario health administrative data can be used to accurately identify cases of HD and describe trends in incidence. There has not been a significant change in HD incidence over time in Ontario between 1991 and 2013. PMID:29180902

Changes in healthcare use among individuals who move into public housing: a population-based investigation.

PubMed

Hinds, Aynslie M; Bechtel, Brian; Distasio, Jino; Roos, Leslie L; Lix, Lisa M

2018-06-05

Residence in public housing, a subsidized and managed government program, may affect health and healthcare utilization. We compared healthcare use in the year before individuals moved into public housing with usage during their first year of tenancy. We also described trends in use. We used linked population-based administrative data housed in the Population Research Data Repository at the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy. The cohort consisted of individuals who moved into public housing in 2009 and 2010. We counted the number of hospitalizations, general practitioner (GP) visits, specialist visits, emergency department visits, and prescriptions drugs dispensed in the twelve 30-day intervals (i.e., months) immediately preceding and following the public housing move-in date. Generalized linear models with generalized estimating equations tested for a period (pre/post-move-in) by month interaction. Odds ratios (ORs), incident rate ratios (IRRs), and means are reported along with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). The cohort included 1942 individuals; the majority were female (73.4%) who lived in low income areas and received government assistance (68.1%). On average, the cohort had more than four health conditions. Over the 24 30-day intervals, the percentage of the cohort that visited a GP, specialist, and an emergency department ranged between 37.0% and 43.0%, 10.0% and 14.0%, and 6.0% and 10.0%, respectively, while the percentage of the cohort hospitalized ranged from 1.0% to 5.0%. Generally, these percentages were highest in the few months before the move-in date and lowest in the few months after the move-in date. The period by month interaction was statistically significant for hospitalizations, GP visits, and prescription drug use. The average change in the odds, rate, or mean was smaller in the post-move-in period than in the pre-move-in period. Use of some healthcare services declined after people moved into public housing; however, the decrease was only observed in the first few months and utilization rebounded. Knowledge of healthcare trends before individuals move in are informative for ensuring the appropriate supports are available to new public housing residents. Further study is needed to determine if decreased healthcare utilization following a move is attributable to decreased access.

Quadrantal multi-scale distribution entropy analysis of heartbeat interval series based on a modified Poincaré plot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Chengyu; Huang, Xiaolin; Zhuang, Jianjun; Hou, Fengzhen; Ni, Huangjing; Ning, Xinbao

2013-09-01

The Poincaré plot is one of the most important approaches in human cardiac rhythm analysis. However, further investigations are still needed to concentrate on techniques that can characterize the dispersion of the points displayed by a Poincaré plot. Based on a modified Poincaré plot, we provide a novel measurement named distribution entropy (DE) and propose a quadrantal multi-scale distribution entropy analysis (QMDE) for the quantitative descriptions of the scatter distribution patterns in various regions and temporal scales. We apply this method to the heartbeat interval series derived from healthy subjects and congestive heart failure (CHF) sufferers, respectively, and find that the discriminations between them are most significant in the first quadrant, which implies significant impacts on vagal regulation brought about by CHF. We also investigate the day-night differences of young healthy people, and it is shown that the results present a clearly circadian rhythm, especially in the first quadrant. In addition, the multi-scale analysis indicates that the results of healthy subjects and CHF sufferers fluctuate in different trends with variation of the scale factor. The same phenomenon also appears in circadian rhythm investigations of young healthy subjects, which implies that the cardiac dynamic system is affected differently in various temporal scales by physiological or pathological factors.

Evaluation of listener-based anuran surveys with automated audio recording devices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shearin, A. F.; Calhoun, A.J.K.; Loftin, C.S.

2012-01-01

Volunteer-based audio surveys are used to document long-term trends in anuran community composition and abundance. Current sampling protocols, however, are not region- or species-specific and may not detect relatively rare or audibly cryptic species. We used automated audio recording devices to record calling anurans during 2006–2009 at wetlands in Maine, USA. We identified species calling, chorus intensity, time of day, and environmental variables when each species was calling and developed logistic and generalized mixed models to determine the time interval and environmental variables that optimize detection of each species during peak calling periods. We detected eight of nine anurans documented in Maine. Individual recordings selected from the sampling period (0.5 h past sunset to 0100 h) described in the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) detected fewer species than were detected in recordings from 30 min past sunset until sunrise. Time of maximum detection of presence and full chorusing for three species (green frogs, mink frogs, pickerel frogs) occurred after the NAAMP sampling end time (0100 h). The NAAMP protocol’s sampling period may result in omissions and misclassifications of chorus sizes for certain species. These potential errors should be considered when interpreting trends generated from standardized anuran audio surveys.

Sunbed Use Prevalence and Associated Skin Health Habits: Results of a Representative, Population-Based Survey among Austrian Residents

PubMed Central

Haluza, Daniela; Simic, Stana; Moshammer, Hanns

2016-01-01

Recreational sunbed use accounts for the main non-solar source of exposure to ultraviolet radiation in fair-skinned Western populations. Indoor tanning is associated with increased risks for acute and chronic dermatological diseases. The current community-based study assessed the one-year prevalence of sunbed use and associated skin health habits among a representative, gender-balanced sample of 1500 Austrian citizens. Overall one-year prevalence of sunbed use was 8.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5%–10.4%), with slightly higher prevalence in females (9.2%, 95% CI 7.3%–11.2%) compared to males (8.6%, 95% CI 6.7%–10.6%). Factors predicting sunbed use were younger age (by trend decreasing with older age), place of living, smoking, skin type (by trend increasing with darker skin), sun exposure, motives to tan, and use of UV-free tanning products. Despite media campaigns on the harmful effects of excessive sunlight and sunbed exposure, we found a high prevalence of self-reported sunbed use among Austrian citizens. From a Public (Skin) Health perspective, the current research extends the understanding of prevailing leisure time skin health habits in adding data on prevalence of sunbed use in the general Austrian population. PMID:26907308

Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide in 5 South African Cities: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E.

2014-01-01

Objective. We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa’s Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. Methods. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. Results. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Conclusions. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period. PMID:24432917

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

Epidemiological data on US coal miners' pneumoconiosis, 1960 to 1988.

PubMed

Attfield, M D; Castellan, R M

1992-07-01

Statistics on prevalence of pneumoconiosis among working underground coal miners based on epidemiologic data collected between 1960 and 1988 are presented. The main intent was to examine the time-related trend in prevalence, particularly after 1969, when substantially lower dust levels were mandated by federal act. Data from studies undertaken between 1960 and 1968 were collected and compared. Information for the period 1969 to 1988 was extracted from a large ongoing national epidemiologic study. Tenure-specific prevalence rates and summary statistics derived from the latter data for four consecutive time intervals within the 19-year period were calculated and compared. The results indicate a reduction in pneumoconiosis over time. The trend is similar to that seen in a large radiologic surveillance program of underground miners operated concurrently. Although such factors as x-ray reader variation, changes in x-ray standards, and worker self-selection for examination may have influenced the findings to some extent, adjusted summary rates reveal a reduction in prevalence concurrent with reductions in coal mine dust levels mandated by federal act in 1969.

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

Energetic Trend in Explosive Activity of Stromboli

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltelli, M.; Cristaldi, A.; Mangiagli, S.; Nunnari, G.; Pecora, E.

2003-12-01

The typical activity of Stromboli consists of intermittent mild explosions lasting a few seconds, which take place at different vents and at variable intervals, the most common time interval being 10-20 minutes. However, the routine activity can be interrupted by more violent, paroxysmal explosions, that eject m-sized scoriaceous bombs and lava blocks to a distance of several hundreds of meters from the craters, endangering the numerous tourists that watch the spectacular activity from the volcano's summit located about two hundreds meters from the active vents. On average, 1-2 paroxysmal explosions occurred per year over the past century, but this statistic may be underestimated in absence of continuous monitoring. For this reason from summer 1996 a remote surveillance camera works on Stromboli recording continuously the volcanic activity. It is located on Pizzo Sopra la Fossa, 100 metres above the crater terrace where are the active vents. Using image analysis we seeks to identify any change of the explosive activity trend that could precede a particular eruptive event, like paroxysmal explosions, fire fountains, lava flows. The analysis include the counting of the explosions occurred at the different craters and the parameterization in classes of intensity for each explosion on the base of tephra dispersion and kinetics energy. Associating at each class a corresponding Index of energy in order to compute an heuristic value of the Average Daily Energy Released (ADER) of the explosive activity at Stromboli and plotting this value for each crater versus time, the diagram shows a cyclic behavior with max and min of explosive activity ranging from a few days to a month. Often the craters show opposite trends so when the activity decreases in a crater, increases in the other. Before every paroxysmal explosions recorded, the crater that produced the event decreased and then stopped its activity from a few days to weeks before. The other crater tried to compensate increasing its activity and when it declined the paroxysmal explosion occurred suddenly at the former site. From September 2001 an on-line image analyzer called VAMOS (Volcanic Activity MOnitoring System) operates detection and classification of explosive events in real-time. The system has automatically recorded and analyzed the change in the energetic trend that preceded the 20 October 2001 paroxysmal explosion that killed a woman and the strong explosive activity that preceded the onset of 28 December 2002 lava flow eruption.

Effects through 24 months of an HIV/AIDS prevention intervention program based on protection motivation theory among preadolescents in the Bahamas.

PubMed

Gong, Jie; Stanton, Bonita; Lunn, Sonja; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Marshall, Sharon; Brathwaite, Nanika V; Cottrell, Leslie; Harris, Carole; Chen, Xinguang

2009-05-01

The purpose of this work was to report the intervention effects of Focus on Youth in the Caribbean (youth HIV intervention), an HIV prevention intervention based on protection motivation theory, through 24 months of follow-up on sexual risk and protection knowledge, perceptions, intentions, and behavior among Bahamian sixth-grade youth. We randomly assigned 1360 sixth-grade youth (and their parents) attending 15 government elementary schools in the Bahamas to 1 of 3 conditions: (1) youth HIV intervention plus a parental monitoring/communication/HIV education intervention; (2) youth HIV intervention plus a parental goal-setting intervention; or (3) an environmental protection intervention plus the parental goal-setting intervention. Baseline and 4 follow-up surveys at 6-month intervals were conducted. Intervention effects were assessed using the mixed model for continuous outcome variables and the generalized linear mixed model for dichotomous outcome variables. Through 24 months of follow-up, youth HIV intervention, in combination with the parent interventions, significantly increased youths' HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceptions of their ability to use condoms, perception of the effectiveness of condoms and abstinence, and condom use intention and significantly lowered perceived costs to remaining abstinent. There was a trend for higher condom use among youth in the Focus on Youth in the Caribbean groups at each follow-up interval. Focus on Youth in the Caribbean, in combination with 1 of 2 parent interventions administered to preadolescents and their parents in the Bahamas, resulted in and sustained protective changes on HIV/AIDS knowledge, sexual perceptions, and condom use intention. Although rates of sexual experience remained low, the consistent trend at all of the follow-up periods for higher condom use among youth who received youth intervention reached marginal significance at 24 months. Additional follow-up is necessary to determine whether the apparent protective effect is statistically significant as more youth initiate sex and whether it endures over time.

Effects Through 24 Months of an HIV/AIDS Prevention Intervention Program Based on Protection Motivation Theory Among Preadolescents in the Bahamas

PubMed Central

Gong, Jie; Stanton, Bonita; Lunn, Sonja; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Marshall, Sharon; Brathwaite, Nanika V.; Cottrell, Leslie; Harris, Carole; Chen, Xinguang

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this work was to report the intervention effects of Focus on Youth in the Caribbean (youth HIV intervention), an HIV prevention intervention based on protection motivation theory, through 24 months of follow-up on sexual risk and protection knowledge, perceptions, intentions, and behavior among Bahamian sixth-grade youth. METHODS We randomly assigned 1360 sixth-grade youth (and their parents) attending 15 government elementary schools in the Bahamas to 1 of 3 conditions: (1) youth HIV intervention plus a parental monitoring/communication/HIV education intervention; (2) youth HIV intervention plus a parental goal-setting intervention; or (3) an environmental protection intervention plus the parental goal-setting intervention. Baseline and 4 follow-up surveys at 6-month intervals were conducted. Intervention effects were assessed using the mixed model for continuous outcome variables and the generalized linear mixed model for dichotomous outcome variables. RESULTS Through 24 months of follow-up, youth HIV intervention, in combination with the parent interventions, significantly increased youths’ HIV/AIDS knowledge, perceptions of their ability to use condoms, perception of the effectiveness of condoms and abstinence, and condom use intention and significantly lowered perceived costs to remaining abstinent. There was a trend for higher condom use among youth in the Focus on Youth in the Caribbean groups at each follow-up interval. CONCLUSIONS Focus on Youth in the Caribbean, in combination with 1 of 2 parent interventions administered to preadolescents and their parents in the Bahamas, resulted in and sustained protective changes on HIV/AIDS knowledge, sexual perceptions, and condom use intention. Although rates of sexual experience remained low, the consistent trend at all of the follow-up periods for higher condom use among youth who received youth intervention reached marginal significance at 24 months. Additional follow-up is necessary to determine whether the apparent protective effect is statistically significant as more youth initiate sex and whether it endures over time. PMID:19380429

Lawn mower injuries in children: a 30-year experience.

PubMed

Nguyen, Anh; Raymond, Simon; Morgan, Vanessa; Peters, Julian; Macgill, Kirstie; Johnstone, Bruce

2008-09-01

Lawn mowers cause severe injuries that are particularly devastating to children. This study analyses the patterns and trends in lawn mower injuries involving children referred to Victoria's principal children's hospital. A retrospective review of the patient medical records at the Royal Children's Hospital (Melbourne) Victoria, Australia was carried out. The series included all patients admitted for lawn mower injury during the 30-year period spanning 1975-2004. Lawn mower injuries treated at Royal Children's Hospital were severe and included partially amputated limbs. Overall, admissions for lawn mower injury generally decreased over time from n = 26 in the 1975-1979 interval to n = 14 in the 2000-2004 interval. However, the frequency of admission for injuries caused by ride-on mowers contradicted the overall trend and generally increased over time from n = 5 in the 1975-1979 interval to n = 11 in the 2000-2004 interval. This is of particular concern. Ride-on lawn mowers caused significantly more severe injuries requiring longer periods of admission and more operations during admission in comparison to standard mowers. Rural location at the time of injury was a risk factor associated with requiring longer periods of admission and more operations during admission. Children injured while operating mowers were generally older than children injured as bystanders. Lawn mower injuries are a significant cause of morbidity. These injuries are particularly devastating to children. The tragedy is keenly felt in the realization that these devastating injuries to children could all be prevented. Strategic preventative measures should be developed through partnership between the medical profession, the media, industry specialists and the wider community.

A new SO2 emissions budget for Anatahan volcano (Mariana Islands) based on ten years of satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCormick, Brendan; Popp, Christoph; Andrews, Benjamin; Cottrell, Elizabeth

2015-04-01

Satellite remote sensing offers great potential for the study of sulphur dioxide (SO2) gas emissions from volcanoes worldwide. Anatahan is a remote volcano in the Mariana Islands, SW Pacific. Existing SO2 emissions data from Anatahan, from ground-based UV spectrometer measurements, place the volcano among the largest natural SO2 sources worldwide. However, these measurements are limited in number and only available from intervals of eruptive activity. Activity varies widely at Anatahan: over the past decade, records held in the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program Volcanoes of the World database describe the alternation of intense eruptions with long intervals of quiescence, where much lower intensity activity took place. We present ten years of satellite-based measurements of SO2 in the atmosphere over Anatahan, using data from the UV spectrometers OMI, GOME-2, and SCIAMACHY, and the IR spectrometer AIRS. We find Anatahan's emissions to be highly variable both within and between intervals of eruption and quiescence. We demonstrate a close agreement between trends in SO2 emission evident from our remote sensing data and records of activity compiled from a range of other sources and instruments, across daily to annual temporal scales. Mean eruptive SO2 emissions at Anatahan are ~6400 t/d, and range from <1000 to >18000 t/d. Quiescent emissions are below our instrument detection limits and are therefore unlikely to exceed 150-300 t/d. Overall, accounting for both eruptive and quiescent emissions, we calculate a revised decadal mean SO2 emission rate of 1060-1200 t/d. We further calculate a total decadal SO2 yield from Anatahan of 4-5 Mt, significantly lower than the 17-34 Mt calculated if ground-based campaign data are used in isolation. The use of isolated measurements to extrapolate longer term emissions budgets is subject to clear uncertainty, and we argue that our satellite observations, covering a longer interval of Anatahan's history, are better suited to such calculations, and do not require widespread extrapolation. We propose that the use of multi-year satellite datasets, ideally in conjunction with key ground-based data and longterm records of activity, can make major improvements to existing emissions budgets at Anatahan and other volcanoes worldwide.

Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

PubMed

Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

2017-11-01

The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (<30-49, 50-64 and ≥65 years). ER+/HER2- cancers rose, ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat and ER-/HER± cancers declined. Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were like those previously observed. Stratification by HER2± expression did not substantively alter ER± trends. The divergence of ER± incidence rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fault-sourced alluvial fans and their interaction with axial fluvial drainage: An example from the Plio-Pleistocene Upper Valdarno Basin (Tuscany, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fidolini, Francesco; Ghinassi, Massimiliano; Aldinucci, Mauro; Billi, Paolo; Boaga, Jacopo; Deiana, Rita; Brivio, Lara

2013-05-01

The present study deals with the fault-sourced, alluvial-fan deposits of the Plio-Pleistocene Upper Valdarno Basin (Northern Apennines, Italy). Different phases of alluvial fan aggradation, progradation and backstep are discussed as possible effects of the interaction among fault-generated accommodation space, sediment supply and discharge variations affecting the axial fluvial drainage. The Upper Valdarno Basin, located about 35 km SE of Florence, is filled with 550 m palustrine, lacustrine and alluvial deposits forming four main unconformity-bounded units (i.e. synthems). The study alluvial-fan deposits belong to the two uppermost synthems (Montevarchi and Torrente Ciuffenna synthems) and are Early to Middle Pleistocene in age. These deposits are sourced from the fault-bounded, NE margin of the basin and interfinger with axial fluvial deposits. Alluvial fan deposits of the Montevarchi Synthem consist of three main intervals: i) a lower interval, which lacks any evidence of a depositional trend and testify balance between the subsidence rate (i.e. fault activity) and the amount of sediment provided from the margin; ii) a coarsening-upward middle interval, pointing to a decrease in subsidence rate associated with an augment in sediment supply; iii) a fining-upward, upper interval (locally preserved), documenting a phase of tectonic quiescence associated with a progressive re-equilibration of the tectonically-induced morphological profile. The basin-scale unconformity, which separates the Montevarchi and Torrente Ciuffenna synthems was due to the entrance of the Arno River into the basin as consequence of a piracy. This event caused a dramatic increase in water discharge of the axial fluvial system, and its consequent embanking. Such an erosional surface started to develop in the axial areas, and propagated along the main tributaries, triggering erosion of the alluvial fan deposits. Alluvial-fan deposits of the Torrente Ciuffenna Synthem accumulated above the unconformity during a phase of tectonic quiescence, and show a fining-upward depositional trend. This trend was generated by a progressive decrease in sediment supply stemming out from upstream migration of the knickpoints developed during the embanking of the axial system.

Impact of new-generation agents on antiepileptic drug prescribing patterns in a residential ICF-MR facility.

PubMed

Smith, Stacey Allison; McKee, Jerry R

2004-06-01

Describe the impact of newer antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) on prescribing practices in a large, residential intermediate-care facility for the mentally retarded (ICF-MR), with onsite clinical pharmacist support services, over a 15-year period. All residents at the facility receiving AEDs for management of seizure disorder were included in this retrospective assessment. Number and type of AEDs used per individual were recorded and analyzed over the 15-year interval. Current prescribing practices were evaluated regarding rational polytherapy prescribing trends. 400-bed residential ICF-MR for the severe to profoundly mentally retarded. All individuals residing at the ICF-MR facility receiving AED therapy for a seizure disorder. Residents were primarily in the severe to profound range of developmental disability, with multiple medical comorbidities. Clinical pharmacists actively participate in all treatment teams and monthly neurology clinic to promote and encourage rational pharmacotherapy. Prescribing trends related to AED therapy were followed over a 15-year period. Comparisons were made regarding monotherapy and polytherapy at multiple-year intervals, with specific emphasis on how the newer generation AEDs have affected use of older medications. Overall trend from 1988 suggests more monotherapy and less use of barbiturates. Introduction of a new generation of AEDs has not affected the overall trend toward one- or two-drug regimens over the period in review. The relative stability of the number of AEDs per resident during the introduction of a new generation of AEDs suggests that as new drugs are added, ineffective or problem-prone drugs are discontinued.

Healthful and Unhealthful Plant-Based Diets and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in U.S. Adults.

PubMed

Satija, Ambika; Bhupathiraju, Shilpa N; Spiegelman, Donna; Chiuve, Stephanie E; Manson, JoAnn E; Willett, Walter; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Rimm, Eric B; Hu, Frank B

2017-07-25

Plant-based diets are recommended for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention. However, not all plant foods are necessarily beneficial for health. This study sought to examine associations between plant-based diet indices and CHD incidence. We included 73,710 women in NHS (Nurses' Health Study) (1984 to 2012), 92,329 women in NHS2 (1991 to 2013), and 43,259 men in Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986 to 2012), free of chronic diseases at baseline. We created an overall plant-based diet index (PDI) from repeated semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire data, by assigning positive scores to plant foods and reverse scores to animal foods. We also created a healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI) where healthy plant foods (whole grains, fruits/vegetables, nuts/legumes, oils, tea/coffee) received positive scores, whereas less-healthy plant foods (juices/sweetened beverages, refined grains, potatoes/fries, sweets) and animal foods received reverse scores. To create an unhealthful PDI (uPDI), we gave positive scores to less-healthy plant foods and reverse scores to animal and healthy plant foods. Over 4,833,042 person-years of follow-up, we documented 8,631 incident CHD cases. In pooled multivariable analysis, higher adherence to PDI was independently inversely associated with CHD (hazard ratio [HR] comparing extreme deciles: 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83 to 1.01; p trend = 0.003). This inverse association was stronger for hDPI (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.83; p trend <0.001). Conversely, uPDI was positively associated with CHD (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.46; p trend <0.001). Higher intake of a plant-based diet index rich in healthier plant foods is associated with substantially lower CHD risk, whereas a plant-based diet index that emphasizes less-healthy plant foods is associated with higher CHD risk. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mobile phone base stations and early childhood cancers: case-control study.

PubMed

Elliott, Paul; Toledano, Mireille B; Bennett, J; Beale, L; de Hoogh, K; Best, N; Briggs, D J

2010-06-22

To investigate the risk of early childhood cancers associated with the mother's exposure to radiofrequency from and proximity to macrocell mobile phone base stations (masts) during pregnancy. Case-control study. Cancer registry and national birth register data in Great Britain. 1397 cases of cancer in children aged 0-4 from national cancer registry 1999-2001 and 5588 birth controls from national birth register, individually matched by sex and date of birth (four controls per case). Incidence of cancers of the brain and central nervous system, leukaemia, and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, and all cancers combined, adjusted for small area measures of education level, socioeconomic deprivation, population density, and population mixing. Mean distance of registered address at birth from a macrocell base station, based on a national database of 76,890 base station antennas in 1996-2001, was similar for cases and controls (1107 (SD 1131) m v 1073 (SD 1130) m, P=0.31), as was total power output of base stations within 700 m of the address (2.89 (SD 5.9) kW v 3.00 (SD 6.0) kW, P=0.54) and modelled power density (-30.3 (SD 21.7) dBm v -29.7 (SD 21.5) dBm, P=0.41). For modelled power density at the address at birth, compared with the lowest exposure category the adjusted odds ratios were 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.18) in the intermediate and 1.02 (0.88 to 1.20) in the highest exposure category for all cancers (P=0.79 for trend), 0.97 (0.69 to 1.37) and 0.76 (0.51 to 1.12), respectively, for brain and central nervous system cancers (P=0.33 for trend), and 1.16 (0.90 to 1.48) and 1.03 (0.79 to 1.34) for leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (P=0.51 for trend). There is no association between risk of early childhood cancers and estimates of the mother's exposure to mobile phone base stations during pregnancy.

Mobile phone base stations and early childhood cancers: case-control study

PubMed Central

Toledano, Mireille B; Bennett, J; Beale, L; de Hoogh, K; Best, N; Briggs, D J

2010-01-01

Objective To investigate the risk of early childhood cancers associated with the mother’s exposure to radiofrequency from and proximity to macrocell mobile phone base stations (masts) during pregnancy. Design Case-control study. Setting Cancer registry and national birth register data in Great Britain. Participants 1397 cases of cancer in children aged 0-4 from national cancer registry 1999-2001 and 5588 birth controls from national birth register, individually matched by sex and date of birth (four controls per case). Main outcome measures Incidence of cancers of the brain and central nervous system, leukaemia, and non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas, and all cancers combined, adjusted for small area measures of education level, socioeconomic deprivation, population density, and population mixing. Results Mean distance of registered address at birth from a macrocell base station, based on a national database of 76 890 base station antennas in 1996-2001, was similar for cases and controls (1107 (SD 1131) m v 1073 (SD 1130) m, P=0.31), as was total power output of base stations within 700 m of the address (2.89 (SD 5.9) kW v 3.00 (SD 6.0) kW, P=0.54) and modelled power density (−30.3 (SD 21.7) dBm v −29.7 (SD 21.5) dBm, P=0.41). For modelled power density at the address at birth, compared with the lowest exposure category the adjusted odds ratios were 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.18) in the intermediate and 1.02 (0.88 to 1.20) in the highest exposure category for all cancers (P=0.79 for trend), 0.97 (0.69 to 1.37) and 0.76 (0.51 to 1.12), respectively, for brain and central nervous system cancers (P=0.33 for trend), and 1.16 (0.90 to 1.48) and 1.03 (0.79 to 1.34) for leukaemia and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (P=0.51 for trend). Conclusions There is no association between risk of early childhood cancers and estimates of the mother’s exposure to mobile phone base stations during pregnancy. PMID:20570865

Diet based on the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top and subsequent mortality among men and women in a general Japanese population.

PubMed

Oba, Shino; Nagata, Chisato; Nakamura, Kozue; Fujii, Kaori; Kawachi, Toshiaki; Takatsuka, Naoyoshi; Shimizu, Hiroyuki

2009-09-01

The Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top was developed by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery to promote healthful diets. Adherence to the Japanese Food Guide Spinning Top was evaluated in terms of future mortality in a prospective cohort study. A prospective cohort study among men and women in a general Japanese population. The cohort consisted of 13,355 men and 15,724 women residing in Takayama, Japan, in 1992. At baseline, a food frequency questionnaire was administered, and adherence to the food guide was measured based on consuming the recommended number of servings of grains, vegetables, fish and meat, milk, and fruits, as well as total daily energy intake and energy from snacks and alcoholic beverages. Higher scores indicated better adherence to the recommendations on a scale of 0 to 70. Based on data obtained from the Office of the National Vital Statistics, deaths occurring among members of the cohort were prospectively noted from 1992 to 1999. To assess the magnitude of association of adherence scores with subsequent mortality, a Cox proportional hazard model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Among women, the adherence score was significantly associated with a lower risk of mortality from all causes (comparing highest and lowest quartiles of the score, HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.94, P for trend 0.01) in a multivariate analysis; noncardiovascular, noncancer causes (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.96, P for trend 0.04) and cardiovascular disease (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.04, P for trend0.05). No statistically significant association was observed between the adherence score and mortality among men. The results suggest that diets based on the food guide have the benefit of reducing future mortality in women.

Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

PubMed

2009-01-01

the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma in both sexes, colon, testis, soft tissue among men, and lung and Hodgkin lymphoma among women. For several cancer sites incidence decreased, e.g., stomach and Kaposi sarcoma (men and women), upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, urinary bladder, myeloma and leukaemia (men), gallbladder, cervix uteri and ovary (women). this monograph presents a detailed description of cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy. It is based on the Italian Network of Cancer Registries which presently covers about one-third of the whole Italian population. This monograph is a useful scientific tool for all those, be they researchers or public health administrators, who are involved in the fields of cancer prevention and care.

Increased oil production and reserves from improved completion techniques in the Bluebell field, Uinta Basin. Quarterly technical report, October 1, 1996--December 31, 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morgan, C.D.

1997-02-01

The objective of this project is to increase oil production and reserves in the Uinta Basin by demonstrating improved completion techniques. Low productivity of Uinta Basin wells is caused by gross production intervals of several thousand feet that contain perforated thief zones, water-bearing zones, and unperforated oil-bearing intervals. Geologic and engineering characterization and computer simulation of the Green River and Wasatch formations in the Bluebell field will determine reservoir heterogeneities related to fractures and depositional trends. This will be followed by drilling and recompletion of several wells to demonstrate improved completion techniques based on the reservoir characterization. Transfer of themore » project results will be an ongoing component of the project. The recompletion of the Michelle Ute 7-1 well commenced and is the first step in the three-well demonstration. As part of the recompletion, the gross productive interval was logged, additional beds were perforated, and the entire interval was stimulated with a three-stage acid treatment. The operator attempted to stimulate the well at high pressure (about 10,000 pounds per square inch (psi) [68,950 kPa]) at three separate packer locations. But at each location the pressure would not hold. As a result, all three stages were pumped at a lower pressure (6500 psi maximum [44,820 kPa]) from one packer location. As of December 31, 1996, the operator was tripping in the hole with the production packer and tubing to begin swab testing the well.« less

Widening educational inequalities in adolescent smoking following national tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003: a time-series analysis.

PubMed

Kuipers, Mirte A G; Nagelhout, Gera E; Willemsen, Marc C; Kunst, Anton E

2014-10-01

In 2003, the Netherlands introduced tobacco control policies, including bans on tobacco sales to minors, advertising and sponsoring and tobacco sales in government institutions. We examined the extent to which these policies were associated with a change in educational inequalities in adolescent smoking. Repeated cross-sectional survey. The Netherlands, 1992-2011. A total of 43 527 14-19-year-old adolescents. Data were obtained from the national Youth Smoking Monitor. We used logistic regression analyses to model the immediate change in daily smoking prevalence in 2003, the trends and the changes in trends. Models included interactions between educational level (high versus low, based on the educational track of the respondent) and, respectively, period (after versus before 2003), time and time × period. Before 2003 the smoking trend declined slightly, and the decline was comparable for students of both high and low educational levels. Immediately after tobacco policies were introduced, daily smoking prevalence dropped for the total population [regression coefficient (β) = -0.340, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.445; -0.236]. This drop was larger for high educational level compared to low educational level (β interaction = -0.400, 95% CI = -0.623; -0.176). After 2003, trends in educational inequalities in smoking stabilized. Following the introduction of new tobacco control policies in the Netherlands in 2003, smoking prevalence rates decreased among adolescents of both higher and lower educational levels. However, socio-economic inequalities in adolescent smoking increased. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability in Older Adults: The Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Soares-Miranda, Luisa; Sattelmair, Jacob; Chaves, Paulo; Duncan, Glen; Siscovick, David S; Stein, Phyllis K; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2014-01-01

Background Cardiac mortality and electrophysiologic dysfunction both increase with age. Heart rate variability (HRV) provides indices of autonomic function and electrophysiology that are associated with cardiac risk. How habitual physical activity (PA) among older adults prospectively relates to HRV, including nonlinear indices of erratic sinus patterns, is not established. We hypothesized that increasing levels of both total leisure-time activity and walking would be prospectively associated with more favorable time-domain, frequency-domain, and nonlinear HRV measures in older adults. Methods and Results We evaluated serial longitudinal measures of both PA and 24-hour Holter HRV over 5 years among 985 older US adults in the community-based Cardiovascular Health Study. After multivariable adjustment, greater total leisure-time activity, walking distance, and walking pace were each prospectively associated with specific, more favorable HRV indices, including higher 24-hour standard-deviation-of-all-normal-to-normal-intervals (SDNN, p-trend=0.009, 0.02, 0.06, respectively) and ultra-low-frequency-power (p-trend=0.02, 0.008, 0.16, respectively). Greater walking pace was also associated with higher short-term-fractal-scaling-exponent (p-trend=0.003) and lower Poincare ratio (p-trend=0.02), markers of less erratic sinus patterns. Conclusions Greater total leisure-time activity, as well as walking alone, were prospectively associated with more favorable and specific indices of autonomic function in older adults, including several suggestive of more normal circadian fluctuations and less erratic sinoatrial firing. Our results suggest potential mechanisms that might contribute to lower cardiovascular mortality with habitual PA later in life. PMID:24799513

Association of vegetable and fruit intake with gastric cancer risk among Japanese: a pooled analysis of four cohort studies.

PubMed

Shimazu, T; Wakai, K; Tamakoshi, A; Tsuji, I; Tanaka, K; Matsuo, K; Nagata, C; Mizoue, T; Inoue, M; Tsugane, S; Sasazuki, S

2014-06-01

Prospective evidence is inconsistent regarding the association between vegetable/fruit intake and the risk of gastric cancer. In an analysis of original data from four population-based prospective cohort studies encompassing 191 232 participants, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gastric cancer incidence according to vegetable and fruit intake and conducted a meta-analysis of HRs derived from each study. During 2 094 428 person-years of follow-up, 2995 gastric cancer cases were identified. After adjustment for potential confounders, we found a marginally significant decrease in gastric cancer risk in relation to total vegetable intake but not total fruit intake: the multivariate-adjusted HR (95% CI; P for trend) for the highest versus the lowest quintile of total vegetable intake was 0.89 (0.77-1.03; P for trend = 0.13) among men and 0.83 (0.67-1.03; P for trend = 0.40) among women. For distal gastric cancer, the multivariate HR for the highest quintile of total vegetable intake was 0.78 (0.63-0.97; P for trend = 0.02) among men. This pooled analysis of data from large prospective studies in Japan suggests that vegetable intake reduces gastric cancer risk, especially the risk of distal gastric cancer among men. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Type 1 diabetes mellitus and components in drinking water and diet: a population-based, case-control study in Prince Edward Island, Canada.

PubMed

Benson, Victoria S; Vanleeuwen, John A; Taylor, Jennifer; Somers, George S; McKinney, Patricia A; Van Til, Linda

2010-12-01

To determine the relationship between the risk of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and daily intake of drinking water and dietary components, including nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamines, during the year prior to diagnosis. Controls (n = 105) were matched by age at diagnosis and sex to T1D cases (n = 57) newly diagnosed during 2001-2004. Food consumption was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire. Locally available samples of foods were tested for nitrate, nitrite, and nitrosamine concentrations. Water consumption was determined through an additional questionnaire, and water samples were taken from homes and tested for routine chemical components, including nitrate. After controlling for age, age, sex, and daily energy intake, nitrate intake from food sources showed a non-significant positive trend (odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for quartiles = 1.00, 1.63 (0.58, 4.63), 1.71 (0.54, 5.40), 3.02 (0.78, 11.74); p for trend = 0.13). Nitrite and nitrosamine intake were not related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.77 and 0.81, respectively). When food and water components were combined, zinc and calcium intakes were marginally and inversely related to T1D risk (p for trend = 0.07 and 0.06, respectively). After further model adjustment of possible confounders and significant risk factors, an increased intake of caffeine marginally increased the risk of T1D (p = 0.07). Dietary components from both food and water sources may influence the risk of developing T1D in young persons.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-12-01

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Stroke incidence and 30-day and six-month case fatality rates in Udine, Italy: a population-based prospective study.

PubMed

Janes, Francesco; Gigli, Gian Luigi; D'Anna, Lucio; Cancelli, Iacopo; Perelli, Anna; Canal, Giessica; Russo, Valentina; Zanchettin, Barbara; Valente, Mariarosaria

2013-10-01

Stroke incidence in high-income countries is reported to decrease, and new data on stroke incidence and outcome are needed to design stroke services and to ameliorate stroke management. This study is part of a two-year prospective community-based registry of all cerebrovascular events in the district of Udine (153,312 inhabitants), Friuli-Venezia Giulia region, northeast of Italy, between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2009. Overlapping sources for case finding were used, combining hot and cold pursuit. We identified 784 stroke cases, 640 (81.6%) incident. The crude overall annual incidence rate per 100,000 residents was 256 (95% confidence interval 241-271) for all strokes and 209 (95% confidence interval 195-223) for first-ever strokes. Incidence rate for first-ever strokes was 181 (95% confidence interval 155-211) after adjustment to the 2007 Italian population and 104 (95% confidence interval 88-122) compared with the European standard population. Incidence rates for first-ever strokes was 215 (196-235) for women, 202 (183-223) for men. Crude annual incidence rates per 100,000 population were 167 (153-178) for ischemic stroke, 31 (26-37) for intracerebral hemorrhage, 8.1 (5.7-11.4) for sub-arachnoid hemorrhage, and 4.6 (2.8-7.1) for undetermined stroke. Overall case fatality rates for first-ever stroke were 20.6% at 28 days and 30.2% at 180 days. Our study shows incidence rates higher than previously reported in our region but not supporting the view of higher incidence rates in Northern than in Southern Italy. Results contribute to time-trends analysis on epidemiology, useful for dimensioning services in Italy and show the persistence of a gap between the outcome of stroke in Italy and that of the best performing European countries, urging to adopt better stroke management plans. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Early inpatient calculation of laboratory-based 30-day readmission risk scores empowers clinical risk modification during index hospitalization.

PubMed

Horne, Benjamin D; Budge, Deborah; Masica, Andrew L; Savitz, Lucy A; Benuzillo, José; Cantu, Gabriela; Bradshaw, Alejandra; McCubrey, Raymond O; Bair, Tami L; Roberts, Colleen A; Rasmusson, Kismet D; Alharethi, Rami; Kfoury, Abdallah G; James, Brent C; Lappé, Donald L

2017-03-01

Improving 30-day readmission continues to be problematic for most hospitals. This study reports the creation and validation of sex-specific inpatient (i) heart failure (HF) risk scores using electronic data from the beginning of inpatient care for effective and efficient prediction of 30-day readmission risk. HF patients hospitalized at Intermountain Healthcare from 2005 to 2012 (derivation: n=6079; validation: n=2663) and Baylor Scott & White Health (North Region) from 2005 to 2013 (validation: n=5162) were studied. Sex-specific iHF scores were derived to predict post-hospitalization 30-day readmission using common HF laboratory measures and age. Risk scores adding social, morbidity, and treatment factors were also evaluated. The iHF model for females utilized potassium, bicarbonate, blood urea nitrogen, red blood cell count, white blood cell count, and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration; for males, components were B-type natriuretic peptide, sodium, creatinine, hematocrit, red cell distribution width, and mean platelet volume. Among females, odds ratios (OR) were OR=1.99 for iHF tertile 3 vs. 1 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.28, 3.08) for Intermountain validation (P-trend across tertiles=0.002) and OR=1.29 (CI=1.01, 1.66) for Baylor patients (P-trend=0.049). Among males, iHF had OR=1.95 (CI=1.33, 2.85) for tertile 3 vs. 1 in Intermountain (P-trend <0.001) and OR=2.03 (CI=1.52, 2.71) in Baylor (P-trend < 0.001). Expanded models using 182-183 variables had predictive abilities similar to iHF. Sex-specific laboratory-based electronic health record-delivered iHF risk scores effectively predicted 30-day readmission among HF patients. Efficient to calculate and deliver to clinicians, recent clinical implementation of iHF scores suggest they are useful and useable for more precise clinical HF treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Payment incentives for community-based psychiatric care in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Rudoler, David; de Oliveira, Claire; Cheng, Joyce; Kurdyak, Paul

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: In September 2011, the government of Ontario implemented payment incentives to encourage the delivery of community-based psychiatric care to patients after discharge from a psychiatric hospital admission and to those with a recent suicide attempt. We evaluated whether these incentives affected supply of psychiatric services and access to care. METHODS: We used administrative data to capture monthly observations for all psychiatrists who practised in Ontario between September 2009 and August 2014. We conducted interrupted time-series analyses of psychiatrist-level and patient-level data to evaluate whether the incentives affected the quantity of eligible outpatient services delivered and the likelihood of receiving follow-up care. RESULTS: Among 1921 psychiatrists evaluated, implementation of the incentive payments was not associated with increased provision of follow-up visits after discharge from a psychiatric hospital admission (mean change in visits per month per psychiatrist 0.0099, 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.0989 to 0.1206; change in trend 0.0032, 95% CI −0.0035 to 0.0095) or after a suicide attempt (mean change −0.0910, 95% CI −0.1885 to 0.0026; change in trend 0.0102, 95% CI 0.0045 to 0.0159). There was also no change in the probability that patients received follow-up care after discharge (change in level −0.0079, 95% CI −0.0223 to 0.0061; change in trend 0.0007, 95% CI −0.0003 to 0.0016) or after a suicide attempt (change in level 0.0074, 95% CI −0.0094 to 0.0366; change in trend 0.0006, 95% CI −0.0007 to 0.0022). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that implementation of the incentives did not increase access to follow-up care for patients after discharge from a psychiatric hospital admission or after a suicide attempt, and the incentives had no effect on supply of psychiatric services. Further research to guide design and implementation of more effective incentives is warranted. PMID:29229712

Reservoir sedimentology of the Big Injun sandstone in Granny Creek field, West Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zou, Xiangdong; Donaldson, K.; Donaldson, A.C.

1992-01-01

Big Injun sandstones of Granny Creek oil field (WV) are interpreted as fluvial-deltaic deposits from core and geophysical log data. The reservoir consists of two distinctive lithologies throughout the field; fine-grained sandstones overlain by pebbly and coarse-grained sandstones. Lower fine-grained sandstones were deposited in westward prograding river-mouth bars, where distal, marine-dominant proximal, and fluvial-dominant proximal bar subfacies are recognized. Principal pay is marine-influenced proximal bar, where porosity ranges from 13 to 23% and permeability, up to 24 md. Thin marine transgressive shales and their laterally equivalent low-permeability sandstones bound time-rock sequences generally less than 10 meters thick. Where field mapped,more » width of prograding bar sequence is approximately 2.7 km (dip trend), measured from truncated eastern edge (pre-coarse-grained member erosional surface) to distal western margin. Dip-trending elongate lobes occur within marine-influenced proximal mouth-bar area, representing thickest part of tidally influenced preserved bar. Upper coarse-grained part of reservoir consists of pebbly sandstones of channel fill from bedload streams. Laterally persistent low permeability cemented interval in lower part commonly caps underlying pay zone and probably serves as seal to vertical oil migration. Southwest paleoflow trends based on thickness maps of unit portent emergence of West Virginia dome, which influences erosion patterns of pre-Greenbrier unconformity for this combination oil trap.« less

Miocene stratigraphy and structure of Sabine Pass, West Cameron, and East Cameron outer continental shelf areas, Louisiana

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, S.Y.; Watkins, J.S.

Mapping of Miocene stratigraphy and structure of the Sabine Pass, West Cameron, and East Cameron areas of the western Louisiana outer continental shelf - based on over 1300 mi of seismic data on a 4-mi grid, paleotops from 60 wells, and logs from 35 wells - resulted in time-structure and isochron maps at six intervals from the upper Pliocene to lower Miocene. The most pronounced structural features are the fault systems, which trend east-northeast to east along the Miocene stratigraphic trend. Isolated normal faults with small displacements characterize the inner inner shelf, whereas interconnected faults with greater displacements characterize themore » outer inner shelf. The inner inner shelf faults exhibit little growth, but expansion across the interconnected outer inner shelf fault ranges up to 1 sec two-way traveltime. The interconnected faults belong to two structurally independent fault families. The innermost shelf faults appear to root in the sediment column. A third set of faults located in the Sabine Pass area trends north-south. This fault set is thought to be related to basement movement and/or basement structure. Very little salt is evident in the area. A single diapir is located in West Cameron Block 110 and vicinity. There is little evidence of deep salt. Overall sediment thickness probably exceeds 20,000 ft, with the middle Miocene accounting for 8000 ft.« less

The Effect of a Clinical Decision Support System on Improving Adherence to Guideline in the Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation: An Interrupted Time Series Study.

PubMed

Sheibani, Reza; Sheibani, Mehdi; Heidari-Bakavoli, Alireza; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Eslami, Saeid

2017-12-23

To evaluate the effect of a computerized Decision Support System (CDSS) on improving adherence to an anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). This study had an interrupted time series design. The adherence to the guideline was assessed at fortnightly (two weeks) intervals from January 2016 to January 2017, 6 months before and 6 months after intervention. Newly diagnosed patients with AF were included in the offices of ten cardiologists. Stroke and major bleeding risks were calculated by the CDSS which was implemented via a mobile application. Treatment recommendations based on the guideline were shown to cardiologists. The segmented regression model was used to evaluate the effect of CDSS on level and trend of guideline adherence for the treatment of AF. In our analysis, 373 patients were included. The trend of adherence to the anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of AF was stable in the pre-intervention phase. After the CDSS intervention, mean of the adherence to the guideline significantly increased from 48% to 65.5% (P-value < 0.0001). The trend of adherence to the guideline was stable in the post-intervention phase. Our results showed that the CDSS can improve adherence to the anticoagulation guideline for the treatment of AF. Registration ID: IRCT2016052528070N1.

A cross-sectional study of cardiorespiratory fitness and gallbladder disease.

PubMed

Li, Changqing; Mikus, Catherine; Ahmed, Ali; Hu, Gang; Xiong, Kaiyu; Zhang, Yimin; Sui, Xuemei

2017-04-01

To determine the association of different levels of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), an objective indicator of habitual physical activity, with gallbladder disease. In the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS) database, 41,528 men and 13,206 women aged 20-90 years, with body mass index of 18.5 or more and without history of cardiovascular disease and cancer, received a preventive examination at the Cooper Clinic in Dallas, Texas, between 1970 and 2003. CRF was quantified as maximal metabolic equivalents and classified as low, moderate, and high based on traditional ACLS cut points. Gallbladder disease was defined as physician-diagnosed gallbladder disease. When compared with low CRF, adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for gallbladder disease for those with moderate and high CRF were 0.74 (0.55-0.99) and 0.59 (0.42-0.82), respectively when adjusted for all the potential confounders. Each one metabolic equivalent increment of CRF was associated with 10% lower odds of gallbladder disease in all participants (P for trend <.001), 13% lower in women (P for trend <.001), and 8% lower in men (P for trend = .08). The association was consistent across age, history of diabetes mellitus, and physical inactivity subgroups. CRF is inversely related to the prevalence of gallbladder disease among relatively healthy men and women in the ACLS cohort. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differences in incidence and trends of haematological malignancies in Japan and the United States

PubMed Central

Chihara, Dai; Ito, Hidemi; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Shibata, Akiko; Katsumi, Akira; Nakamura, Shigeo; Tomotaka, Sobue; Morton, Lindsay M; Weisenburger, Dennis D; Matsuo, Keitaro

2014-01-01

The incidence of a malignant disease reflects the genetic and cumulative exposure to the environment of a population. Therefore, evaluation of the incidence and trends of a disease in different populations may provide insights into its aetiology and pathogenesis. To evaluate the incidence of haematological malignancies according to specific subtypes, we used population-based registry data in Japan (N = 125 148) and the United States (US; N = 172 925) from 1993 to 2008. The age-adjusted incidence of haematological malignancies in Japan was approximately one-half that in the US but has been increasing significantly, whereas no significant change was seen in the US [annual percent change (95% C confidence interval): Japan, +2·4% (1·7, 3·1); US, +0·1% (−0·1, 0·2)]. Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) showed the largest differences in incidence, with the most remarkable differences observed for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, HL-nodular sclerosis, mycosis fungoides and cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. HL and NHL are increasing substantially in Japan but not in the US, suggesting that environmental exposures, such as Westernization of the life style may be causing this increase. Differences in the incidence and trends for specific subtypes also showed a marked contrast across subtypes, which, in turn, may provide significant new insights into disease aetiology in the future. PMID:24245986

Trends in the orthopedic job market and the importance of fellowship subspecialty training.

PubMed

Morrell, Nathan T; Mercer, Deana M; Moneim, Moheb S

2012-04-01

Previous studies have examined possible incentives for pursuing orthopedic fellowship training, but we are unaware of previously published studies reporting the trends in the orthopedic job market since the acceptance of certain criteria for fellowship programs by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) in 1985. We hypothesized that, since the initiation of accredited postresidency fellowship programs, job opportunities for fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons have increased and job opportunities for nonfellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons have decreased. We reviewed the job advertisements printed in the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, American Volume, for the years 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2009. We categorized the job opportunities as available for either a general (nonfellowship-trained) orthopedic surgeon or a fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeon. Based on the advertisements posted in the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, American Volume, a trend exists in the orthopedic job market toward seeking fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons. In the years 1984, 1994, 2004, and 2009, the percentage of job opportunities seeking fellowship-trained orthopedic surgeons was 16.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.1%-20.3%), 40.6% (95% CI, 38.1%-43.1%), 52.2% (95% CI, 48.5%-55.9%), and 68.2% (95% CI, 65.0%-71.4%), respectively. These differences were statistically significant (analysis of variance, P<.05). Fellowship training is thus a worthwhile endeavor. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Investigating uplift in the South-Western Barents Sea using sonic and density well log measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Ellis, M.

2014-12-01

Sediments in the Barents Sea have undergone large amounts of uplift due to Plio-Pleistoncene deglaciation as well as Palaeocene-Eocene Atlantic rifting. Uplift affects the reservoir quality, seal capacity and fluid migration. Therefore, it is important to gain reliable uplift estimates in order to evaluate the petroleum prospectivity properly. To this end, a number of quantification methods have been proposed, such as Apatite Fission Track Analysis (AFTA), and integration of seismic surveys with well log data. AFTA usually provides accurate uplift estimates, but the data is limited due to its high cost. While the seismic survey can provide good uplift estimate when well data is available for calibration, the uncertainty can be large in areas where there is little to no well data. We estimated South-Western Barents Sea uplift based on well data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Primary assumptions include time-irreversible shale compaction trends and a universal normal compaction trend for a specified formation. Sonic and density logs from two Cenozoic shale formation intervals, Kolmule and Kolje, were used for the study. For each formation, we studied logs of all released wells, and established exponential normal compaction trends based on a single well. That well was then deemed the reference well, and relative uplift can be calculated at other well locations based on the offset from the normal compaction trend. We found that the amount of uplift increases along the SW to NE direction, with a maximum difference of 1,447 m from the Kolje FM estimate, and 699 m from the Kolmule FM estimate. The average standard deviation of the estimated uplift is 130 m for the Kolje FM, and 160 m for the Kolmule FM using the density log. While results from density logs and sonic logs have good agreement in general, the density log provides slightly better results in terms of higher consistency and lower standard deviation. Our results agree with published papers qualitatively with some differences in the actual amount of uplifts. The results are considered to be more accurate due to the higher resolution of the log scale data that was used.

Antioxidant compounds of kiwifruit during post-ripening process at ambient temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Lv, X. L.; Wang, J.; Xia, H.; Xie, Y.; Li, M. Z.; Wang, Y. Z.

2017-09-01

Kiwifruit is well-known for an excellent source of antioxidants. In this study, contents of total phenolics (TPC), total flavonoids (TFC), total flavanols (TFAC) and vitamin C were investigated in different fruit tissues during post-ripening process at ambient temperature. The results explored that TPC and TFC showed declining trend with the increase in storage interval in different tissues. TFAC raised with the increase in storage interval in different fruit tissues, while was followed a decrease in later process. Vitamin C content was stable in outer and inner pericarp in prometaphase of post-ripening.

Development of the USGS national land-cover database over two decades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Yang, Limin; Weng, Qihao

2011-01-01

Land-cover composition and change have profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Land-cover and land-use (LCLU) conditions and their changes can affect social and physical environments by altering ecosystem conditions and services. Information about LCLU change is often used to produce landscape-based metrics and evaluate landscape conditions to monitor LCLU status and trends over a specific time interval (Loveland et al. 2002; Coppin et al. 2004; Lunetta et al. 2006). Continuous, accurate, and up-to-date land-cover data are important for natural resource and ecosystem management and are needed to support consistent monitoring of landscape attributes over time. Large-area land-cover information at regional, national, and global scales is critical for monitoring landscape variations over large areas.

Variation compensation and analysis on diaphragm curvature analysis for emphysema quantification on whole lung CT scans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Brad M.; Reeves, Anthony P.; Barr, R. Graham; Yankelevitz, David F.; Henschke, Claudia I.

2010-03-01

CT scans allow for the quantitative evaluation of the anatomical bases of emphysema. Recently, a non-density based geometric measurement of lung diagphragm curvature has been proposed as a method for the quantification of emphysema from CT. This work analyzes variability of diaphragm curvature and evaluates the effectiveness of a compensation methodology for the reduction of this variability as compared to emphysema index. Using a dataset of 43 scan-pairs with less than a 100 day time-interval between scans, we find that the diaphragm curvature had a trend towards lower overall variability over emphysema index (95% CI:-9.7 to + 14.7 vs. -15.8 to +12.0), and that the variation of both measures was reduced after compensation. We conclude that the variation of the new measure can be considered comparable to the established measure and the compensation can reduce the apparent variation of quantitative measures successfully.

Relationships between thermal maturity indices calculated using Arrhenius equation and Lopatin method: implications for petroleum exploration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, D.A.

1988-02-01

Thermal maturity can be calculated with time-temperature indices (TTI) based on the Arrhenius equation using kinetics applicable to a range of Types II and III kerogens. These TTIs are compared with TTI calculations based on the Lopatin method and are related theoretically (and empirically via vitrinite reflectance) to the petroleum-generation window. The TTIs for both methods are expressed mathematically as integrals of temperature combined with variable linear heating rates for selected temperature intervals. Heating rates control the thermal-maturation trends of buried sediments. Relative to Arrhenius TTIs, Lopatin TTIs tend to underestimate thermal maturity at high heating rates and overestimate itmore » as low heating rates. Complex burial histories applicable to a range of tectonic environments illustrate the different exploration decisions that might be made on the basis of independent results of these two thermal-maturation models. 15 figures, 8 tables.« less

Comparison of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere-ocean model forced runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Russell, Gary L.

2002-08-01

Results are presented for two greenhouse gas experiments of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies atmosphere-ocean model (AOM). The computed trends of surface pressure; surface temperature; 850, 500, and 200 mbar geopotential heights; and related temperatures of the model for the time frame 1960-2000 are compared with those obtained from the National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP) observations. The domain of interest is the Northern Hemisphere because of the higher reliability of both the model results and the observations. A spatial correlation analysis and a mean value comparison are performed, showing good agreement in terms of statistical significance for most of the variables considered in the winter and annual means. However, the 850 mbar temperature trends do not show significant positive correlation, and the surface pressure and 850 mbar geopotential height mean trends confidence intervals do not overlap. A brief general discussion about the statistics of trend detection is presented. The accuracy that this AOM has in describing the regional and NH mean climate trends inferred from NCEP through the atmosphere suggests that it may be reliable in forecasting future climate changes.

Trends in Serial Measurements of Ultrasound Markers in Second and Third Trimester Down Syndrome Fetuses.

PubMed

Vos, F I; De Jong-Pleij, E A P; Bakker, M; Tromp, E; Bilardo, C M

2015-01-01

To evaluate trends of nasal bone length (NBL), prenasal thickness (PT), nuchal fold (NF), prenasal thickness to nasal bone length (PT-NBL) ratio, and prefrontal space ratio (PFSR), measured serially in second- and third-trimester Down syndrome (DS) fetuses. Prenatal databases were searched for cases of continuing DS pregnancies with serial measurements, taken at least two weeks apart. Trends were plotted on previously reported normal ranges. Serial measurements were available in 25 Down syndrome fetuses. Median gestational age (GA) was 25 weeks; average number of visits per case was 2.44, with a median interval of 39 days between investigations. In DS fetuses, NBL and PT showed fairly stable trends with gestation. PFSR, but especially NF, had a more unpredictable trend. The PT-NBL ratio was the most stable marker, remaining unchanged in 95% of cases. NBL, PT, and NF showed more deviance from the normal range with advancing gestation, but MoM values remained stable. All but two fetuses had ultrasound markers or structural anomalies, especially heart defects. The PT-NBL ratio is the most constant DS marker throughout gestation, following a predictable trend. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Temporal Variability in the Deglutition Literature

PubMed Central

Molfenter, Sonja M.; Steele, Catriona M.

2013-01-01

A literature review was conducted on temporal measures of swallowing in healthy individuals with the purpose of determining the degree of variability present in such measures within the literature. A total of 46 studies that met inclusion criteria were reviewed. The definitions and descriptive statistics for all reported temporal parameters were compiled for meta-analysis. In total, 119 different temporal parameters were found in the literature. The three most-frequently occurring durational measures were: UES opening, laryngeal closure and hyoid movement. The three most-frequently occurring interval measures were: stage transition duration, pharyngeal transit time and duration from laryngeal closure to UES opening. Subtle variations in operational definitions across studies were noted, making the comparison of data challenging. Analysis of forest plots compiling descriptive statistical data (means and 95% confidence intervals) across studies revealed differing degrees of variability across durations and intervals. Two parameters (UES opening duration and the laryngeal-closure-to-UES-opening interval) demonstrated the least variability, reflected by small ranges for mean values and tight confidence intervals. Trends emerged for factors of bolus size and participant age for some variables. Other potential sources of variability are discussed. PMID:22366761

Statistical analyses of the results of 25 years of beach litter surveys on the south-eastern North Sea coast.

PubMed

Schulz, Marcus; Clemens, Thomas; Förster, Harald; Harder, Thorsten; Fleet, David; Gaus, Silvia; Grave, Christel; Flegel, Imme; Schrey, Eckart; Hartwig, Eike

2015-08-01

In the North Sea, the amount of litter present in the marine environment represents a severe environmental problem. In order to assess the magnitude of the problem and measure changes in abundance, the results of two beach litter monitoring programmes were compared and analysed for long-term trends applying multivariate techniques. Total beach litter pollution was persistently high. Spatial differences in litter abundance made it difficult to identify long-term trends: Partly more than 8000 litter items year(-1) were recorded on a 100 m long survey site on the island of Scharhörn, while the survey site on the beach on the island of Amrum revealed abundances lower by two orders of magnitude. Beach litter was dominated by plastic with mean proportions of 52%-91% of total beach litter. Non-parametric time series analyses detected many significant trends, which, however, did not show any systematic spatial patterns. Cluster analyses partly led to groupings of beaches according to their expositions to sources of litter, wind and currents. Surveys in short intervals of one to two weeks were found to give higher annual sums of beach litter than the quarterly surveys of the OSPAR method. Surveys at regular intervals of four weeks to five months would make monitoring results more reliable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

2018-02-01

A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

Retrospective analysis of mercury content in feathers of birds collected from the state of Michigan (1895-2007).

PubMed

Head, Jessica A; DeBofsky, Abigail; Hinshaw, Janet; Basu, Niladri

2011-10-01

Museum specimens were used to analyze temporal trends in feather mercury (Hg) concentrations in birds collected from the state of Michigan between the years 1895 and 2007. Hg was measured in flank and secondary feathers from three species of birds that breed in the Great Lakes region; common terns (n = 32), great blue herons (n = 35), and herring gulls (n = 35). More than 90% of the Hg in feathers should be organic, but some of the heron and gull feathers collected prior to 1936 showed evidence of contamination with inorganic Hg, likely from museum preservatives. The data presented here therefore consist of organic Hg in pre-1936 samples and total Hg in post-1936 samples. Insufficient tissue was available from terns to assess organic Hg content. Mean Hg concentrations ranged from 2.9 ± 2.5 μg/g Hg in tern flank feathers to 12.4 ± 10.6 μg/g Hg in gull flank feathers. No linear trend of Hg contamination over time was detected in herons and gulls. Though a significant decrease was noted for terns, these data are presented with caution given the strong likelihood that earlier samples were preserved with inorganic mercury. When data were separated into 30-year intervals, Hg content in heron and gull feathers collected from birds sampled between 1920 and 1949 were consistently highest but not to a level of statistical significance. For example, Hg concentrations in gull secondary feathers collected in the second time interval (1920-1949) were 11.5 ± 7.8. This value was 67% higher than the first time interval (1890-1919), 44% higher than the third interval (1950-1979), and 187% higher than the fourth interval (1980-2009). Studies on Great Lakes sediments also showed greatest Hg accumulations in the mid-twentieth century. Through the use of museum specimens, these results present a unique snapshot of Hg concentrations in Great Lakes biota in the early part of the twentieth century.

Caribou distribution during the post-calving period in relation to infrastructure in the Prudhoe Bay oil field, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Matthew A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; Noel, Lynn E.; McDonald, Trent L.; Ballard, Warren B.

1998-01-01

There is concern that caribou (Rangifer tarandus) may avoid roads and facilities (i.e., infrastructure) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (PBOF) in northern Alaska, and that this avoidance can have negative effects on the animals. We quantified the relationship between caribou distribution and PBOF infrastructure during the post-calving period (mid-June to mid-August) with aerial surveys from 1990 to 1995. We conducted four to eight surveys per year with complete coverage of the PBOF. We identified active oil field infrastructure and used a geographic information system (GIS) to construct ten 1 km wide concentric intervals surrounding the infrastructure. We tested whether caribou distribution is related to distance from infrastructure with a chi-squared habitat utilization-availability analysis and log-linear regression. We considered bulls, calves, and total caribou of all sex/age classes separately. The habitat utilization-availability analysis indicated there was no consistent trend of attraction to or avoidance of infrastructure. Caribou frequently were more abundant than expected in the intervals close to infrastructure, and this trend was more pronounced for bulls and for total caribou of all sex/age classes than for calves. Log-linear regression (with Poisson error structure) of numbers of caribou and distance from infrastructure were also done, with and without combining data into the 1 km distance intervals. The analysis without intervals revealed no relationship between caribou distribution and distance from oil field infrastructure, or between caribou distribution and Julian date, year, or distance from the Beaufort Sea coast. The log-linear regression with caribou combined into distance intervals showed the density of bulls and total caribou of all sex/age classes declined with distance from infrastructure. Our results indicate that during the post-calving period: 1) caribou distribution is largely unrelated to distance from infrastructure; 2) caribou regularly use habitats in the PBOF; 3) caribou often occur close to infrastructure; and 4) caribou do not appear to avoid oil field infrastructure.

Effect of increased exercise in school children on physical fitness and endothelial progenitor cells: a prospective randomized trial.

PubMed

Walther, Claudia; Gaede, Luise; Adams, Volker; Gelbrich, Götz; Leichtle, Alexander; Erbs, Sandra; Sonnabend, Melanie; Fikenzer, Kati; Körner, Antje; Kiess, Wieland; Bruegel, Mathias; Thiery, Joachim; Schuler, Gerhard

2009-12-01

The aim of this prospective, randomized study was to examine whether additional school exercise lessons would result in improved peak oxygen uptake (primary end point) and body mass index-standard deviation score, motor and coordinative abilities, circulating progenitor cells, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (major secondary end points). Seven sixth-grade classes (182 children, aged 11.1+/-0.7 years) were randomized to an intervention group (4 classes with 109 students) with daily school exercise lessons for 1 year and a control group (3 classes with 73 students) with regular school sports twice weekly. The significant effects of intervention estimated from ANCOVA adjusted for intraclass correlation were the following: increase of peak o(2) (3.7 mL/kg per minute; 95% confidence interval, 0.3 to 7.2) and increase of circulating progenitor cells evaluated by flow cytometry (97 cells per 1 x 10(6) leukocytes; 95% confidence interval, 13 to 181). No significant difference was seen for body mass index-standard deviation score (-0.08; 95% confidence interval, -0.28 to 0.13); however, there was a trend to reduction of the prevalence of overweight and obese children in the intervention group (from 12.8% to 7.3%). No treatment effect was seen for motor and coordinative abilities (4; 95% confidence interval, -1 to 8) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.03 mmol/L; 95% confidence interval, -0.08 to 0.14). Regular physical activity by means of daily school exercise lessons has a significant positive effect on physical fitness (o(2)max). Furthermore, the number of circulating progenitor cells can be increased, and there is a positive trend in body mass index-standard deviation score reduction and motor ability improvement. Therefore, we conclude that primary prevention by means of increasing physical activity should start in childhood. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Identifier: NCT00176371.

Analysis of Atmospheric Trace Constituents from High Resolution Infrared Balloon-Borne and Ground-Based Solar Absorption Spectra

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldman, A.; Murcray, F. J.; Rinsland, C. P.; Blatherwick, R. D.; Murcray, F. H.; Murcray, D. G.

1991-01-01

Recent results and ongoing studies of high resolution solar absorption spectra will be presented. The analysis of these spectra is aimed at the identification and quantification of trace constituents important in atmospheric chemistry of the stratosphere and upper troposphere. Analysis of balloon-borne and ground-based spectra obtained at 0.0025/ cm covering the 700-2200/ cm interval will be presented. Results from ground-based 0.02/ cm solar spectra, from several locations such as Denver, South Pole, M. Loa, and New Zealand will also be shown. The 0.0025/ cm spectra show many new spectroscopic features. The analysis of these spectra, along with corresponding laboratory spectra, improves the spectral line parameters, and thus the accuracy of trace constituents quantification. The combination of the recent balloon flights, with earlier flights data since 1978 at 0.02/ cm resolution, provides trends analysis of several stratospheric trace species. Results for COF2, F22, SF6, and other species will be presented. Analysis of several ground-based solar spectra provides trends for HCl, HF and other species. The retrieval methods used for total column density and altitude distribution for both ground-based and balloon-borne spectra will be presented. These are extended for the analysis of the ground-based spectra to be obtained by the high resolution interferometers of the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). Progress or the University of Denver studies for the NDSC will be presented. This will include intercomparison of solar spectra and trace gases retrievals obtained from simultaneous scans by the high resolution (0.0025/ cm) interferometers of BRUKER and BOMEM.

Robots drive the German radical prostatectomy market: a total population analysis from 2006 to 2013.

PubMed

Groeben, C; Koch, R; Baunacke, M; Wirth, M P; Huber, J

2016-12-01

To assess trends in the distribution of patients for radical prostatectomy in Germany from 2006 to 2013 and the impact of robotic surgery on annual caseloads. We hypothesized that the advent of robotics and the establishment of certified prostate cancer centers caused centralization in the German radical prostatectomy market. Using remote data processing we analyzed the nationwide German billing data from 2006 to 2013. We supplemented this database with additional hospital characteristics like the prostate cancer center certification status. Inclusion criteria were a prostate cancer diagnosis combined with radical prostatectomy. Hospitals with certification or a surgical robot in 2009 were defined as 'early' group. Linear covariant-analytic models were applied to describe trends over time. Annual radical prostatectomy numbers declined from 28 374 (2006) to 21 850 (2013). High-volume hospitals (⩾100 cases) decreased from 87 (22.0%) in 2006 to 43 (10.4%) in 2013. Low-volume hospitals (<50 cases) increased from 193 (48.7%) to 280 (67.4%). Mean radical prostatectomy caseloads of hospitals with early vs without certification declined from 155 to 130 vs 77 to 39 (P=0.021 for trend comparison). Early robotic hospitals maintained their volume >200 cases per year contrary to the overall trend (P<0.001 for trend comparison). A multivariate model for caseload numbers of 2013 indicated a robotic system to be the most important factor for higher caseloads (multiplication factor 7.3; 95% confidence interval: 6.6-8.0). A prostate cancer center certification (multiplication factor 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.50-1.59) had a much smaller impact. We found decentralization of radical prostatectomy in Germany. The driving force for this development might consist in the overall decline of radical prostatectomy numbers. The most important factor for achieving higher caseloads was the presence of a robotic system. In order to optimize outcomes of radical prostatectomy additional health policy measures might be necessary.

Using Ecological Momentary Assessment to Determine Media Use by Individuals With and Without Major Depressive Disorder

PubMed Central

Primack, Brian A.; Silk, Jennifer S.; DeLozier, Christian R; Shadel, William G.; Dillman Carpentier, Francesca R.; Dahl, Ronald E.; Switzer, Galen E.

2011-01-01

Objective To use ecological momentary assessment techniques to measure the association of major depressive disorder (MDD) with media use. Design Data were collected using an ecological momentary assessment protocol with cellular telephone–based brief interviews. Setting Participants received as many as 60 telephone calls from a trained staff member during 5 extended week-ends in an 8-week period. Participants One hundred six adolescent participants who were part of a larger neurobehavioral study of depression in Pittsburgh from January 1, 2003, through December 31, 2008. Main Exposure At each call, participants were asked whether they were using the following 5 types of media: television or movies, music, video games, Internet, and print media, such as magazines, newspapers, and books. Main Outcome Measures We developed multivariable models to determine the independent association of each type of media use with MDD, controlling for socio-demographic variables. Results Of the 106 participants, 46 were diagnosed as having MDD. In multivariable models controlling for age, sex, and race, each increasing quartile of audio use was associated with an 80% increase in the odds of having MDD (odds ratio, 1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.1–2.8; P = .01 for trend). Conversely, each increasing quartile of print media use was associated with a 48% decrease in the odds of having MDD (odds ratio, 0.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.3–0.9; P = .009 for trend). Conclusions Major depressive disorder is positively associated with popular music exposure and negatively associated with reading print media such as books. Further research elucidating the directionality and strength of these relationships may help advance understanding of the relationships between media use and MDD. PMID:21464384

Growing Use of Contralateral Prophylactic Mastectomy Despite no Improvement in Long-term Survival for Invasive Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Wong, Stephanie M; Freedman, Rachel A; Sagara, Yasuaki; Aydogan, Fatih; Barry, William T; Golshan, Mehra

2017-03-01

To update and examine national temporal trends in contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) and determine whether survival differed for invasive breast cancer patients based on hormone receptor (HR) status and age. We identified women diagnosed with unilateral stage I to III breast cancer between 1998 and 2012 within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry. We compared characteristics and temporal trends between patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery, unilateral mastectomy, and CPM. We then performed Cox proportional-hazards regression to examine breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) in women diagnosed between 1998 and 2007, who underwent breast-conserving surgery with radiation (breast-conserving therapy), unilateral mastectomy, or CPM, with subsequent subgroup analysis stratifying by age and HR status. Of 496,488 women diagnosed with unilateral invasive breast cancer, 59.6% underwent breast-conserving surgery, 33.4% underwent unilateral mastectomy, and 7.0% underwent CPM. Overall, the proportion of women undergoing CPM increased from 3.9% in 2002 to 12.7% in 2012 (P < 0.001). Reconstructive surgery was performed in 48.3% of CPM patients compared with only 16.0% of unilateral mastectomy patients, with rates of reconstruction with CPM rising from 35.3% in 2002 to 55.4% in 2012 (P < 0.001). When compared with breast-conserving therapy, we found no significant improvement in BCSS or OS for women undergoing CPM (BCSS: HR 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.16; OS: HR 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.14), regardless of HR status or age. The use of CPM more than tripled during the study period despite evidence suggesting no survival benefit over breast conservation. Further examination on how to optimally counsel women about surgical options is warranted.

Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance

PubMed Central

Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bao, Le

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence. Design Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference. Methods We introduce a variance inflation parameter σinfl2 that accounts for the uncertainty of nonsampling errors in ANC-SS prevalence. It is additive to the sampling error variance. Three approaches are tested for estimating σinfl2 using ANC-SS and household survey data from 40 subnational regions in nine countries in sub-Saharan, as defined in UNAIDS 2016 estimates. Methods were compared using in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of ANC-SS data, fit to household survey prevalence data, and the computational implications. Results Introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2 increased the error variance around ANC-SS prevalence observations by a median of 2.7 times (interquartile range 1.9–3.8). Using only sampling error in ANC-SS prevalence ( σinfl2=0), coverage of 95% prediction intervals was 69% in out-of-sample prediction tests. This increased to 90% after introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2. The revised probabilistic model improved model fit to household survey prevalence and increased epidemic uncertainty intervals most during the early epidemic period before 2005. Estimating σinfl2 did not increase the computational cost of model fitting. Conclusions: We recommend estimating nonsampling error in ANC-SS as an additional parameter in Bayesian inference using the Estimation and Projection Package model. This approach may prove useful for incorporating other data sources such as routine prevalence from Prevention of mother-to-child transmission testing into future epidemic estimates. PMID:28296801

Sedentary lifestyle and emergence of hopelessness in middle-aged men.

PubMed

Valtonen, Maarit; Laaksonen, David E; Laukkanen, Jari; Tolmunen, Tommi; Rauramaa, Rainer; Viinamäki, Heimo; Mursu, Jaakko; Savonen, Kai; Lakka, Timo A; Niskanen, Leo; Kauhanen, Jussi

2010-10-01

A sedentary lifestyle and psychosocial factors such as hopelessness and depression increase cardiovascular risk. Cross-sectional evidence suggests positive effects of physical exercise on psychological well being, but the time order of the relationship between physical activity and hopelessness has not been addressed. Population-based prospective cohort study with 630 middle-aged men participating in the 4-year follow-up and 509 men in the 11-year follow-up. We investigated the association of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with the development of hopelessness during the follow-up. LTPA and hopelessness were quantified with questionnaires. In cross-sectional analyses, LTPA was inversely associated with hopelessness, independently of depression. Among men who did not have feelings of hopelessness at baseline, those who reported engaging in at least 2.5 h/week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity had a lower risk (odds ratio 0.65, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-1.09, P for the trend=0.047) to feel hopeless than sedentary men 4 years later after adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, this relationship was not explained by body mass index or maximal oxygen uptake. Adjustment for depressive symptoms slightly weakened the association (odds ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-1.11, P for the trend=0.060). After 11 years, men who reported being physically active at baseline were still less likely to feel hopeless, after adjusting for age. However, after further adjustment for other confounding factors the association was no longer significant. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity seems to prevent development of hopelessness in middle-aged men. This protective effect may diminish over time.

Dietary Intake of Antioxidant Vitamins and Carotenoids and Risk of Developing Active Tuberculosis in a Prospective Population-Based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Soh, Avril Z; Chee, Cynthia B E; Wang, Yee-Tang; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon-Puay

2017-08-15

Antioxidants may protect against oxidative stress, which is associated with tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, direct evidence for a protective association between dietary antioxidants and TB incidence in humans has been lacking. The relationship between intake of antioxidant vitamins (vitamins A, C, D, and E) and individual carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lycopene, and lutein) and TB incidence was examined in the Singapore Chinese Health Study, a prospective cohort study of 63,257 adults aged 45-74 years enrolled during 1993-1998. Baseline intake of these antioxidants was estimated using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire including questions on use of dietary supplements. After an average of 16.9 years of follow-up, 1,186 incident active TB cases were identified among cohort participants. Compared with the lowest quartile, reduced risk of active TB was observed for the highest quartile of vitamin A intake (hazard ratio = 0.71, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.85; P-trend < 0.01) and β-carotene intake (hazard ratio = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.63, 0.91; P-trend < 0.01), regardless of smoking status. Lower TB risk was seen for vitamin C intake among current smokers only. Other vitamins and carotenoids were not associated with TB risk. These results suggest that vitamin C may reduce TB risk among current smokers by ameliorating oxidative stress, while vitamin A and β-carotene may have additional antimycobacterial properties. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dietary trace element intake and liver cancer risk: Results from two population-based cohorts in China.

PubMed

Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Li, Hong-Lan; Zheng, Wei; Gao, Jing; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Gong; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Xiang, Yong-Bing

2017-03-01

Dietary factors have been hypothesized to affect the risk of liver cancer via various mechanisms, but the influence has been not well studied and the evidence is conflicting. We investigated associations of dietary trace element intake, assessed through a validated food frequency questionnaire, with risk of liver cancer in two prospective cohort studies of 132,765 women (1997-2013) and men (2002-2013) in Shanghai, China. The associations were first evaluated in cohort studies and further assessed in a case-control study nested within these cohorts adjusting for hepatitis B virus infection. For cohort analyses, Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. For nested case-control analyses, conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. After a median follow-up time of 15.2 years for the Shanghai Women's Health Study and 9.3 years for the Shanghai Men's Health Study, 192 women and 344 men developed liver cancer. Dietary intake of manganese was inversely associated with liver cancer risk (highest vs. lowest quintile, HR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.35-0.73; p trend  = 0.001). Further adjustment for hepatitis B virus infection in the nested case-control study yielded a similar result (highest vs. lowest quintile, OR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21-0.69; p trend  < 0.001). No significant association was found between dietary intake of selenium, iron, zinc, copper and liver cancer risk. The results suggest that higher intake of manganese may be associated with a lower risk of liver cancer in China. © 2016 UICC.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Up-to-Date on Preventive Care Services Under Affordable Care Act: A Trend Analysis From MEPS 2007-2014.

PubMed

Hong, Young-Rock; Jo, Ara; Mainous, Arch G

2017-08-01

The utilization of preventive care services has been less than optimal. As part of an effort to address this, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) mandated that private health insurance plans cover evidence-based preventive services. To evaluate whether the provisions of ACA have increased being up-to-date on recommended preventive care services among privately insured individuals aged 18-64. Multivariate linear regression models were used to examine trends in prevalence of being up-to-date on selected preventive services, diagnosis of health conditions, and health expenditures between pre-ACA (2007-2010) and post-ACA (2011-2014). Adjusted difference-in-difference analyses were used to estimate changes in those outcomes in the privately insured that differed from changes in the uninsured (control group). After the passage of ACA, up-to-date rates of routine checkup (2.7%; 95% confidence interval, 0.8%-4.7%; P=0.007) and flu vaccination (5.9%; 95% confidence interval, 4.2%-7.6%; P<0.001) increased among those with private insurance, as compared with the control group. Changes in blood pressure check, cholesterol check and cancer screening (pap smear test, mammography, and colorectal cancer screening) were not associated with the ACA. Prevalence in diagnosis of health conditions remained constant. Slower uptrends in adjusted total health care expenditures and downtrends in adjusted out-of-pocket costs were observed during the study period. The provisions of the ACA have resulted in trivial increases in being up-to-date on selected preventive care services. Additional efforts may be required to take full advantage of the elimination of cost-sharing under the ACA.

Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonism in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Findings From the ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) Registry.

PubMed

Fudim, Marat; Liu, Peter R; Shrader, Peter; Blanco, Rosalia G; Allen, Larry A; Fonarow, Gregg C; Gersh, Bernard J; Kowey, Peter R; Mahaffey, Kenneth W; Hylek, Elaine; Go, Alan S; Thomas, Laine; Peterson, Eric D; Piccini, Jonathan P

2018-04-13

Mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) therapy may be beneficial to patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), but little is known about their use in patients with AF and subsequent outcomes. In order to better understand MRA use and subsequent outcomes, we performed a retrospective cohort study of the contemporary ORBIT-AF (Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation) registry. AF progression and cardiovascular outcomes were compared using propensity-matched Cox proportional hazards modeling according to MRA use at baseline and new MRA use at follow-up versus patients with no MRA use. Among 7012 patients with nonpermanent AF, 320 patients were taking MRA at enrollment, and 416 patients initiated MRA use during follow-up. The mean patient age was 72.5 years, 56.3% were men, and 70.4% had paroxysmal AF. Among all patients taking MRAs, 434 (59.0%) had heart failure, 655 (89.0%) had hypertension, and 380 (51.6%) had both. After adjustment, new MRA use was not associated with reduced AF progression (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.58; P =0.27) but showed a trend towards lower risk of stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism (hazard ratio, 0.17; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-1.23; P =0.08). Results were similar for a comparison of new MRA users and baseline MRA users compared with nonusers. In community-based outpatients with AF, the majority of MRA use was for heart failure and hypertension. MRA use also trended towards lower adjusted stroke risk. Future studies should test the hypothesis that MRA use may decrease the risk of stroke in patients with AF. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Trends in Mortality After Primary Cytoreductive Surgery for Ovarian Cancer: A Systematic Review and Metaregression of Randomized Clinical Trials and Observational Studies.

PubMed

Di Donato, Violante; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Aletti, Giovanni; Casorelli, Assunta; Piacenti, Ilaria; Bogani, Giorgio; Lecce, Francesca; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi

2017-06-01

Primary cytoreductive surgery (PDS) followed by platinum-based chemotherapy is the cornerstone of treatment and the absence of residual tumor after PDS is universally considered the most important prognostic factor. The aim of the present analysis was to evaluate trend and predictors of 30-day mortality in patients undergoing primary cytoreduction for ovarian cancer. Literature was searched for records reporting 30-day mortality after PDS. All cohorts were rated for quality. Simple and multiple Poisson regression models were used to quantify the association between 30-day mortality and the following: overall or severe complications, proportion of patients with stage IV disease, median age, year of publication, and weighted surgical complexity index. Using the multiple regression model, we calculated the risk of perioperative mortality at different levels for statistically significant covariates of interest. Simple regression identified median age and proportion of patients with stage IV disease as statistically significant predictors of 30-day mortality. When included in the multiple Poisson regression model, both remained statistically significant, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.087 for median age and 1.017 for stage IV disease. Disease stage was a strong predictor, with the risk estimated to increase from 2.8% (95% confidence interval 2.02-3.66) for stage III to 16.1% (95% confidence interval 6.18-25.93) for stage IV, for a cohort with a median age of 65 years. Metaregression demonstrated that increased age and advanced clinical stage were independently associated with an increased risk of mortality, and the combined effects of both factors greatly increased the risk.

Sea-surface temperatures for the last 7200 years from the eastern Sunda Shelf, South China Sea: Climatic inferences from planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodson, Anna Lee; Leorri, Eduardo; Culver, Stephen J.; Mallinson, David J.; Parham, Peter R.; Thunell, Robert C.; Vijayan, V. R.; Curtis, Scott

2017-06-01

To test whether low latitude shallow shelf deposits can provide high resolution paleoclimatic records, we utilized two cores from the Holocene sedimentary fill of incised valleys on the Sunda Shelf off Sarawak, Malaysia. We developed a new sea-surface temperature (SST) record based on planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca for the last 7200 years. This record reveals several significant shifts between warmer and colder conditions. Temperatures averaged 27.5 °C ca. 7200 cal. years BP, then climbed to 28.2 °C from 6500 to 5500 cal. years BP. At 5500-4500 cal. years BP we identified the coldest period (26.8 °C) of the analyzed period. For the last 4500 years SST again averaged 27.5 °C but the profile is rather variable. The last ca. 1000 years recorded the warmest SST averaging 28.5 °C. We record, for the first time in this region, a cool interval, ca. 1000 years in duration, centered on 5000 cal years BP concomitant with a wet period recorded in Borneo. The record also reflects a warm interval from ca. 1000 to 500 cal years BP that may represent the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Variations in the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and solar activity are considered as potential drivers of SST trends. However, hydrology changes related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, shifts of the Western Pacific Warm Pool and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone are more likely to have impacted our SST temporal trend. Our findings indicate that climatic patterns in the region might be in phase with ENSO and out of phase with the EAM.

Estimating numbers of greater prairie-chickens using mark-resight techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clifton, A.M.; Krementz, D.G.

2006-01-01

Current monitoring efforts for greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations indicate that populations are declining across their range. Monitoring the population status of greater prairie-chickens is based on traditional lek surveys (TLS) that provide an index without considering detectability. Estimators, such as immigration-emigration joint maximum-likelihood estimator from a hypergeometric distribution (IEJHE), can account for detectability and provide reliable population estimates based on resightings. We evaluated the use of mark-resight methods using radiotelemetry to estimate population size and density of greater prairie-chickens on 2 sites at a tallgrass prairie in the Flint Hills of Kansas, USA. We used average distances traveled from lek of capture to estimate density. Population estimates and confidence intervals at the 2 sites were 54 (CI 50-59) on 52.9 km 2 and 87 (CI 82-94) on 73.6 km2. The TLS performed at the same sites resulted in population ranges of 7-34 and 36-63 and always produced a lower population index than the mark-resight population estimate with a larger range. Mark-resight simulations with varying male:female ratios of marks indicated that this ratio was important in designing a population study on prairie-chickens. Confidence intervals for estimates when no marks were placed on females at the 2 sites (CI 46-50, 76-84) did not overlap confidence intervals when 40% of marks were placed on females (CI 54-64, 91-109). Population estimates derived using this mark-resight technique were apparently more accurate than traditional methods and would be more effective in detecting changes in prairie-chicken populations. Our technique could improve prairie-chicken management by providing wildlife biologists and land managers with a tool to estimate the population size and trends of lekking bird species, such as greater prairie-chickens.

Water-quality trend analysis and sampling design for the Souris River, Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2000-01-01

The Souris River Basin is a 24,600-square-mile basin located in southeast Saskatchewan, north-central North Dakota, and southwest Manitoba.  The Souris River Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group, formed in 1989 by the governments of Canada and the United States, is responsible for documenting trends in water quality in the Souris River and making recommendations for monitoring future water-quality conditions.  This report presents results of a study conducted for the Bilateral Water Quality Monitoring Group by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota Department of Health, to analyze historic trends in water quality in the Souris River and to determine efficient sampling designs for monitoring future trends.  U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada water-quality data collected during 1977-96 from four sites near the boundary crossings between Canada and the United States were included in the trend analysis. A parametric time-series model was developed for detecting trends in historic constituent concentration data.  The model can be applied to constituents that have at least 90 percent of observations above detection limits of the analyses, which, for the Souris River, includes most major ions and nutrients and many trace elements.  The model can detect complex nonmonotonic trends in concentration in the presence of complex interannual and seasonal variability in daily discharge.  A key feature of the model is its ability to handle highly irregular sampling intervals.  For example, the intervals between concentration measurements may be be as short as 10 days to as long as several months, and the number of samples in any given year can range from zero to 36. Results from the trend analysis for the Souris River indicated numerous trends in constituent concentration.  The most significant trends at the two sites located near the upstream boundary crossing between Saskatchewan and North Dakota consisted of increases in concentrations of most major ions, dissolved boron, and dissolved arsenic during 1987-91 and decreases in concentrations of the same constituents during 1992-96.  Significant trends at the two sites located near the downstream boundary crossing between North Dakota and Manitoba included increases in dissolved sodium, dissolved chloride, and total phosphorus during 1977-86, decreases in dissolved oxygen and dissolved boron and increases in total phosphorus and dissolved iron during 1987-91, and a decrease in total phosphorus during 1992-96. The time-series model also was used to determine the sensitivity of various sampling designs for monitoring future water-quality trends in the Souris River.  It was determined that at least two samples per year are required in each of three seasons--March through June, July through October, and November through February--to obtain reasonable sensitivity for detecting trends in each season.  In addition, substantial improvements occurred in sensitivity for detecting trends by adding a third sample for major ions and trace elements in March through June, adding a third sample for nutrients in July through October, and adding a third sample for nutrients, trace elements, and dissolved oxygen in November through February.

Is there a trend in CT scanning scaphoid nonunions for deformity assessment?-A systematic review.

PubMed

Ten Berg, Paul W L; de Roo, Marieke G A; Maas, Mario; Strackee, Simon D

2017-06-01

The effect of scaphoid nonunion deformity on wrist function is uncertain due to the lack of reliable imaging tools. Advanced three-dimensional (3-D) computed tomography (CT)-based imaging techniques may improve deformity assessment by using a mirrored image of the contralateral intact wrist as anatomic reference. The implementation of such techniques depends on the extent to which conventional CT is currently used in standard practice. The purpose of this systematic review of medical literature was to analyze the trend in CT scanning scaphoid nonunions, either unilaterally or bilaterally. Using Medline and Embase databases, two independent reviewers searched for original full-length clinical articles describing series with at least five patients focusing on reconstructive surgery of scaphoid nonunions with bone grafting and/or fixation, from the years 2000-2015. We excluded reports focusing on only nonunions suspected for avascular necrosis and/or treated with vascularized bone grafting, as their workup often includes magnetic resonance imaging. For data analysis, we evaluated the use of CT scans and distinguished between uni- and bilateral, and pre- and postoperative scans. Seventy-seven articles were included of which 16 were published between 2000 and 2005, 19 between 2006 and 2010, and 42 between 2011 and 2015. For these consecutive intervals, the rates of articles describing the use of pre- and postoperative CT scans increased from 13%, to 16%, to 31%, and from 25%, to 32%, to 52%, respectively. Hereof, only two (3%) articles described the use of bilateral CT scans. There is an evident trend in performing unilateral CT scans before and after reconstructive surgery of a scaphoid nonunion. To improve assessment of scaphoid nonunion deformity using 3-D CT-based imaging techniques, we recommend scanning the contralateral wrist as well. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Beta-2 receptor agonist exposure in the uterus associated with subsequent risk of childhood asthma.

PubMed

Ogawa, Kohei; Tanaka, Satomi; Limin, Yang; Arata, Naoko; Sago, Haruhiko; Yamamoto-Hanada, Kiwako; Narita, Masami; Ohya, Yukihiro

2017-12-01

Although the beta-2 receptor agonist (B2RA) is occasionally prescribed in the prenatal period for women with preterm labor, few studies have referred to the long-term effects of intrauterine exposure to B2RA on fetus. We examined the association between intrauterine exposure to B2RA and asthma in the offspring. We obtained data from a hospital-based birth cohort study conducted in Tokyo, Japan. The outcomes of interest were three indicators, consisting of current wheeze, current asthma, and ever asthma at 5 years of age, based on the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between intrauterine B2RA exposure and outcomes. To evaluate dose-dependent risk, we categorized children into three groups according to both the cumulative dose and duration (days) and conducted trend analysis. Of 1158 children, 94 (8.1%) were exposed to B2RA in utero, and 191 (16.5%), 111 (9.6%), and 168 (14.5%) children experienced current wheeze, current asthma, and ever asthma, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, we found an increased risk of current asthma caused by B2RA exposure with an adjusted odds ratio of 2.04 (95% confidence interval: 1.02-4.05). Trend analysis showed that B2RA exposure in utero was associated with a dose-dependent increased risk of current asthma in terms of both cumulative dose and duration (P values for trend were .015 and .017, respectively). These results were similar to those for other outcome measures. Exposure to B2RA in utero could be a risk for childhood asthma. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

The Darwin TCCON Site - CO2 Calibration and First Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deutscher, N. M.; Griffith, D. W.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Toon, G. C.

2007-12-01

This paper presents the first measurements from the solar observatory deployed to Darwin, Australia in August 2005. The observatory is the second dedicated instrument in the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The first two years of column values are presented, as well as comparison to integrated in situ aircraft profiles obtained during the Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) in January - February 2006. Sites in TCCON will provide ground-based validation and calibration for upcoming space-based instruments, such as the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), which measure the same atmospheric quantities. The TCCON stations are calibrated against integrated columns measured from aircraft by instruments calibrated on the accepted WMO CO2 scale. Two CO2 microwindows are calibrated independently, and the correction factors are determined to be 1.0143 ± 0.0004 (fit ± 95% confidence interval) and 1.0152 ± 0.0003, respectively, for the 6228 cm-1 and 6348 cm-1 bands. These values are in good agreement with similar comparisons made at Park Falls, and show an improvement in the absolute calibration, due to improved CO2 line parameters. The first two years of CO2 data from the solar FTS are analysed for secular and seasonal trends in the column average mixing ratio. These are compared to some surface in situ data trends for the same period. The column data capture the secular trend as observed in surface in situ measurements, however, the seasonal cycle is dampened relative to the surface data illustrating the need for high precision measurements, but also the potential to remove rectifier effects.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

2017-09-18

We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

No increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury in a population-based annual temporal trends epidemiology study.

PubMed

Kashani, Kianoush; Shao, Min; Li, Guangxi; Williams, Amy W; Rule, Andrew D; Kremers, Walter K; Malinchoc, Michael; Gajic, Ognjen; Lieske, John C

2017-09-01

Recent literature suggests an increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). We evaluated population-based trends of AKI over the course of nine years, using a validated electronic health record tool to detect AKI. All adult residents (18 years of age and older) of Olmsted County, Minnesota (MN), admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital between 2006 and 2014 were included. The incidence rate of AKI was calculated and temporal trends in the annual AKI incident rates assessed. During the nine-year study period, 10,283, and 41,847 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit or general ward, with 1,740 and 2,811 developing AKI, respectively. The unadjusted incidence rates were 186 and 287 per 100,000 person years in 2006 and reached 179 and 317 per 100,000 person years in 2014. Following adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant change in the annual AKI incidence rate during the study period with a Relative Risk of 0.99 per year (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.01) for intensive care unit patients and 0.993 per year (0.98-1.01) for the general ward patients. Similar results were obtained when the ICD-9 codes or administrative data for dialysis-requiring AKI was utilized to determine incident cases. Thus, despite the current literature that suggests an epidemic of AKI, we found that after adjusting for age and sex the incidence of AKI in the general population remained relatively stable over the last decade. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-08-01

To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Associations Between Vitamin D Intake and Progression to Incident Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PubMed

Merle, Bénédicte M J; Silver, Rachel E; Rosner, Bernard; Seddon, Johanna M

2017-09-01

There is growing evidence of the importance of nutrition in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but no prospective studies have explored the impact of vitamin D. We evaluated the association between vitamin D intake and progression to advanced AMD. Among 2146 participants (3965 eyes), 541 (777 eyes) progressed from early or intermediate AMD to advanced disease (mean follow-up: 9.4 years) based on ocular imaging. Nutrients were log transformed and calorie adjusted. Survival analysis was used to assess associations between incident advanced disease and vitamin D intake. Neovascular disease (NV) and geographic atrophy (GA) were evaluated separately. Combined effects of dietary vitamin D and calcium were assessed based on high or low consumption of each nutrient. There was a lower risk of progression to advanced AMD in the highest versus lowest quintile of dietary vitamin D intake after adjustment for demographic, behavioral, ocular, and nutritional factors (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43-0.83; P trend = 0.0007). Similar results were observed for NV (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.39-0.89; P trend = 0.005) but not GA (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.53-1.30; P trend = 0.35). A protective effect was observed for advanced AMD among participants with high vitamin D and low calcium compared to the group with low levels for each nutrient (HR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50-0.88; P = 0.005). When supplement use was considered, the effect was in the protective direction but was not significant. A diet rich in vitamin D may prevent or delay progression to advanced AMD, especially NV. Additional exploration is needed to elucidate the potential protective role of vitamin D and its contribution to reducing visual loss.

The Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index in Relation to Sunspot Number, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Concentration of CO2, and Anthropogenic Carbon Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)

Warm Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous high-latitude sea-surface temperatures from the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkyns, H. C.; Schouten-Huibers, L.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S.

2012-02-01

Although a division of the Phanerozoic climatic modes of the Earth into "greenhouse" and "icehouse" phases is widely accepted, whether or not polar ice developed during the relatively warm Jurassic and Cretaceous Periods is still under debate. In particular, there is a range of isotopic and biotic evidence that favours the concept of discrete "cold snaps", marked particularly by migration of certain biota towards lower latitudes. Extension of the use of the palaeotemperature proxy TEX86 back to the Middle Jurassic indicates that relatively warm sea-surface conditions (26-30 °C) existed from this interval (∼160 Ma) to the Early Cretaceous (∼115 Ma) in the Southern Ocean, with a general warming trend through the Late Jurassic followed by a general cooling trend through the Early Cretaceous. The lowest sea-surface temperatures are recorded from around the Callovian-Oxfordian boundary, an interval identified in Europe as relatively cool, but do not fall below 25 °C. The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event, identified on the basis of published biostratigraphy, total organic carbon and carbon-isotope stratigraphy, records an interval with the lowest, albeit fluctuating Early Cretaceous palaeotemperatures (∼26 °C), recalling similar phenomena recorded from Europe and the tropical Pacific Ocean. Extant belemnite δ18O data, assuming an isotopic composition of waters inhabited by these fossils of -1‰ SMOW, give palaeotemperatures throughout the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous interval that are consistently lower by ∼14 °C than does TEX86 and the molluscs likely record conditions below the thermocline. The long-term, warm climatic conditions indicated by the TEX86 data would only be compatible with the existence of continental ice if appreciable areas of high altitude existed on Antarctica, and/or in other polar regions, during the Mesozoic Era.

Associations between age-related nuclear cataract and lutein and zeaxanthin in the diet and serum in the Carotenoids in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study, an Ancillary Study of the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Moeller, Suzen M; Voland, Rick; Tinker, Lesley; Blodi, Barbara A; Klein, Michael L; Gehrs, Karen M; Johnson, Elizabeth J; Snodderly, D Max; Wallace, Robert B; Chappell, Richard J; Parekh, Niyati; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Mares, Julie A

2008-03-01

To evaluate associations between nuclear cataract (determined from slitlamp photographs between May 2001 and January 2004) and lutein and zeaxanthin in the diet and serum in patients between 1994 and 1998 and macula between 2001 and 2004. A total of 1802 women aged 50 to 79 years in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon with intakes of lutein and zeaxanthin above the 78th (high) and below the 28th (low) percentiles in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (1994-1998) were recruited 4 to 7 years later (2001-2004) into the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study. Women in the group with high dietary levels of lutein and zeaxanthin had a 23% lower prevalence of nuclear cataract (age-adjusted odds ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.96) compared with those with low levels. Multivariable adjustment slightly attenuated the association (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.01). Women in the highest quintile category of diet or serum levels of lutein and zeaxanthin as compared with those in the lowest quintile category were 32% less likely to have nuclear cataract (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.97; P for trend = .04; and multivariable-adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.98; P for trend = .01, respectively). Cross-sectional associations with macular pigment density were inverse but not statistically significant. Diets rich in lutein and zeaxanthin are moderately associated with decreased prevalence of nuclear cataract in older women. However, other protective aspects of such diets may in part explain these relationships.

Choline and betaine intake is inversely associated with breast cancer risk: a two-stage case-control study in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Cai-Xia; Pan, Mei-Xia; Li, Bin; Wang, Lian; Mo, Xiong-Fei; Chen, Yu-Ming; Lin, Fang-Yu; Ho, Suzanne C

2013-02-01

Few epidemiological studies have evaluated the association of choline and betaine intake with breast cancer risk and the results remain inconsistent. This study aimed to assess the relationship between dietary intake of choline and betaine and the risk of breast cancer among Chinese women. A two-stage case-control study was conducted, with 807 cases and 807 age- (5-year interval) and residence (rural/urban)-matched controls. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intake by face-to-face interview. An unconditional logistic regression model was used to calculate multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). A significant inverse association was found between dietary choline and betaine consumption and breast cancer risk. The adjusted OR for the highest quartile of intake compared with the lowest were 0.40 (95% CI = 0.28-0.57, P(trend) < 0.001) for total choline intake, 0.58 (95% CI = 0.42-0.80, P(trend) < 0.001) for betaine intake and 0.38 (0.27-0.53, P(trend) < 0.001) for choline plus betaine intake, respectively. Intakes of individual choline compouds, choline from glycerophosphocholine, phosphocholine, phosphatidylcholine, sphingomyelin and free choline were also negatively associated with breast cancer risk. The inverse association between choline intake and breast cancer risk was primarily confined to participants with low folate level (<242 g/day), with an OR (95% CI) of 0.46 (0.23-0.91) comparing the fourth quartile with the first quartile of choline intake (P(trend) = 0.005). The present study suggests that consumption of choline and betaine is inversely associated with the risk of breast cancer. The association of choline intake with breast cancer risk is probably modified by folate intake. © 2012 Japanese Cancer Association.

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

Understanding Trends in Kidney Function 1 Year after Kidney Transplant in the United States.

PubMed

Huang, Yihung; Tilea, Anca; Gillespie, Brenda; Shahinian, Vahakn; Banerjee, Tanushree; Grubbs, Vanessa; Powe, Neil; Rios-Burrows, Nilka; Pavkov, Meda; Saran, Rajiv

2017-08-01

Lower eGFR 1 year after kidney transplant is associated with shorter allograft and patient survival. We examined how practice changes in the past decade correlated with time trends in average eGFR at 1 year after kidney transplant in the United States in a cohort of 189,944 patients who received a kidney transplant between 2001 and 2013. We calculated the average eGFR at 1 year after transplant for the recipient cohort of each year using the appropriate Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation depending on the prevailing methodology of creatinine measurement, and used linear regression to model the effects of practice changes on the national post-transplant eGFR trend. Between the 2001-2005 period and the 2011-2013 period, average 1-year post-transplant eGFR remained essentially unchanged, with differences of 1.34 (95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.65) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.32 to 1.01) ml/min per 1.73 m 2 among deceased and living donor kidney transplant recipients, respectively. Over time, the mean age of recipients increased and more marginal organs were used; adjusting for these trends unmasked a larger temporal improvement in post-transplant eGFR. However, changes in immunosuppression practice had a positive effect on average post-transplant eGFR and balanced out the negative effect of recipient/donor characteristics. In conclusion, average 1-year post-transplant eGFR remained stable, despite increasingly unfavorable attributes in recipients and donors. With an aging ESRD population and continued organ shortage, preservation of average post-transplant eGFR will require sustained improvement in immunosuppression and other aspects of post-transplant care. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Citation Analysis and Trends in review articles in dentistry.

PubMed

Muniz, Francisco Wilker Mustafa Gomes; Celeste, Roger Keller; Oballe, Harry Juan Rivera; Rösing, Cassiano Kuchenbecker

2018-06-01

This study aimed to describe the trends in dentistry article reviews as well as to compare citation patterns between systematic and narrative reviews. A search strategy was developed, in Scopus database, in order to identify all narrative and systematic reviews published between 2000 and 2015. Original research studies, letters to the editor, editorials, book chapters, and case reports were excluded. From the list of studies available, 30 reviews per year were randomly chosen. The review type, year of publication, number of authors, country of the first author, open access, language, main topic of interest, journal's H index, number of references, and number of citations were extracted by 2 researchers. The number of citations was extracted from the Scopus database. Multivariable regression analysis was used in order to detect the association between citation rate and the independent variables. Overall, 118 and 362 systematic and narrative reviews were included in this study. Throughout the years, the number of systematic reviews has increased from 5.8% to 53.3%. However, the mean number of citations has significantly decreased, and this is affected by the review's year of publication. A trend for lower citation in systematic reviews (Relative risk [RR]: 0.79; 95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.84) has been demonstrated; however, the number of citations of narrative reviews has been increasing over the years (RR: 1.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.21). From 2000 to 2015, the number of systematic reviews increased substantially. On the other hand, a trend for lower citations of these studies has been observed that is affected over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost trend analysis of initial cancer treatment in Taiwan.

PubMed

Li, Tsai-Yun; Hsieh, Jan-Sing; Lee, King-Teh; Hou, Ming-Feng; Wu, Chia-Ling; Kao, Hao-Yun; Shi, Hon-Yi

2014-01-01

Despite the high cost of initial cancer care, that is, care in the first year after diagnosis, limited information is available for specific categories of cancer-related costs, especially costs for specific services. This study purposed to identify causes of change in cancer treatment costs over time and to perform trend analyses of the percentage of cancer patients who had received a specific treatment type and the mean cost of care for patients who had received that treatment. The analysis of trends in initial treatment costs focused on cancer-related surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and treatments other than active treatments. For each cancer-specific trend, slopes were calculated for regression models with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses of patients diagnosed in 2007 showed that the National Health Insurance (NHI) system paid, on average, $10,780 for initial care of a gastric cancer patient and $10,681 for initial care of a lung cancer patient, which were inflation-adjusted increases of $6,234 and $5,522, respectively, over the 1996 care costs. During the same interval, the mean NHI payment for initial care for the five specific cancers increased significantly (p<0.05). Hospitalization costs comprised the largest portion of payments for all cancers. During 1996-2007, the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy significantly increased in all cancer types (p<0.05). In 2007, NHI payments for initial care for these five cancers exceeded $12 billion, and gastric and lung cancers accounted for the largest share. In addition to the growing number of NHI beneficiaries with cancer, treatment costs and the percentage of patients who undergo treatment are growing. Therefore, the NHI must accurately predict the economic burden of new chemotherapy agents and radiation therapies and may need to develop programs for stratifying patients according to their potential benefit from these expensive treatments.

Reductions in 28-Day Mortality Following Hospital Admission for Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Crooks, Colin; Card, Tim; West, Joe

2011-01-01

Background & Aims It is unclear whether mortality from upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is changing: any differences observed might result from changes in age or comorbidity of patient populations. We estimated trends in 28-day mortality in England following hospital admission for gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Methods We used a case-control study design to analyze data from all adults administered to a National Health Service hospital, for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, from 1999 to 2007 (n = 516,153). Cases were deaths within 28 days of admission (n = 74,992), and controls were survivors to 28 days. The 28-day mortality was derived from the linked national death register. A logistic regression model was used to adjust trends in nonvariceal and variceal hemorrhage mortality for age, sex, and comorbidities and to investigate potential interactions. Results During the study period, the unadjusted, overall, 28-day mortality following nonvariceal hemorrhage was reduced from 14.7% to 13.1% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.84–0.90). The mortality following variceal hemorrhage was reduced from 24.6% to 20.9% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.95). Adjustments for age and comorbidity partly accounted for the observed trends in mortality. Different mortality trends were identified for different age groups following nonvariceal hemorrhage. Conclusions The 28-day mortality in England following both nonvariceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage decreased from 1999 to 2007, and the reduction had been partly obscured by changes in patient age and comorbidities. Our findings indicate that the overall management of bleeding has improved within the first 4 weeks of admission. PMID:21447331

Patient satisfaction with extended-interval warfarin monitoring.

PubMed

Carris, Nicholas W; Hwang, Andrew Y; Smith, Steven M; Taylor, James R; Sando, Karen; Powell, Jason; Rosenberg, Eric I; Zumberg, Marc S; Gums, John G; Dietrich, Eric A; Anderson, Katherine Vogel

2016-11-01

Extended-interval monitoring of warfarin has been proposed to reduce follow-up burden and improve patient satisfaction. We aimed to make an initial assessment of anticoagulation satisfaction before and after an extended-interval warfarin monitoring intervention. We conducted a translational prospective single-arm pilot study of extended-interval warfarin monitoring in five pharmacist-managed anticoagulation clinics. Patients meeting CHEST guideline criteria for extended-interval warfarin monitoring began progressive extended-interval follow-up (6, 8, and 12 weeks thereafter). The Duke Anticoagulation Satisfaction Scale (DASS) was administered at baseline and at end-of-study or study removal (in patients no longer appropriate for extended interval follow-up). Forty-six patients had evaluable pre- and post-intervention DASS survey data. Mean age of patients was 66.5 years, 74 % were non-Hispanic whites, and 48 % were men. Patients completed a mean ± SD of 34 ± 22 weeks of follow-up. Mean ± SD total DASS score at baseline was 45.2 ± 14.2 versus 49.1 ± 14.9 at end-of-study (mean change, +3.9 [95 % CI -0.6-8.4; p = 0.09]), indicating no benefit-and trending toward decrement-to anticoagulation satisfaction. Change in anticoagulation satisfaction varied substantially following extended-interval monitoring, with no evidence of improved satisfaction. Plausible reasons for patients not preferring extended-interval monitoring include increased anxiety and disengagement from self-management activities, both potentially related to less frequent feedback and reassurance during extended interval-monitoring. Additional research is needed to identify who is likely to benefit most from extended-interval monitoring. Anticoagulation satisfaction should be considered with clinical factors and shared-decision making when implementing extended-interval warfarin monitoring.

Recent Fertility Change Among High Fertility Minorities in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sweet, James A.

Trends and differentials in fertility for three high fertility minority populations -- Southern rural blacks, Spanish surnamed, and American Indians -- are examined for the intervals between 1957-60 and 1967-70. Fertility levels and patterns of differentials within these three minority populations are also compared with those of the urban white…

The Smoking Habits of Three U. S. Newsmagazines: Surgeon General Be Damned?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsien, Ay-Ling; Ostman, Ronald E.

A trend analysis was conducted to determine the characteristics of news articles, editorials, and advertisements about tobacco that appeared in the magazines "Newsweek,""Time," and "U. S. News and World Report." Nine time periods in three intervals were studied: 1959-1961-1963, 1965-1967-1969, and 1973-1975-1977. An…

Trends in nitrogen isotope ratios of juvenile winter flounder reflect changing nitrogen inputs to Rhode Island, USA estuarine systems

EPA Science Inventory

Nitrogen isotope ratios (d 15N) in juvenile winter flounder, Pseudopleuronectes americanus, were used to examine changes in nitrogen inputs to several Rhode Island, USA estuarine systems. Fish were collected over two three-year periods with a ten-year interval between sampling pe...

University Governance: Governing Bodies as Providers and Users of Annual Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dixon, Keith; Coy, David

2007-01-01

Where members of governing bodies of universities stand in relation to their institution's annual reports is discussed in the broader context of trends in university governance. Data were collected from members of the governing councils of New Zealand's eight universities using questionnaire surveys in 1993 and 2001. During this interval, a marked…

Body mass index and risk of leukemia in older women.

PubMed

Ross, Julie A; Parker, Emily; Blair, Cindy K; Cerhan, James R; Folsom, Aaron R

2004-11-01

Overweight [body mass index (BMI) 25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)] and obesity (BMI >/=30 kg/m(2)) are risk factors for several malignancies. The Iowa Women's Health Study was examined to determine whether increased BMI was associated with leukemia development. Over 40,000 Iowa women (ages 55-69 years) completed a self-administered lifestyle and health questionnaire in 1986 that included current height and weight. Two hundred women developed leukemia during the period 1986 to 2001 including 74 acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) and 88 chronic lymphocytic leukemia. The risk of AML was increased among women who reported being overweight or obese (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.4; relative risk, 2.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-4.5; P(trend) = 0.006) compared with women of normal weight. There was little evidence of a positive association for chronic lymphocytic leukemia (P(trend) = 0.6). Given the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the United States, the population attributable risk of AML due to obesity could approach 30%.

Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

2017-04-01

Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of "elasticity." Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007-2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.

Spring Snow Melt Timing and Changes over Arctic Lands

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, J. L.; Robinson, D. A.; Hall, D. K.; Estilow, T. W.

2006-01-01

Spring snow cover over Arctic lands has, on average, melted approximately 4-7 days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous 20 years. The earlier disappearance of snow has been identified in non-mountainous regions at the 60 deg and 70 deg N parallels over Eurasia and North America using visible satellite observations of continental snow cover extent (SCE) mapped by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The change was greater in the farthest north continental locations. Northern hemisphere SCE declined by almost 10% (May) to 20% (June) between the two intervals. At latitude 70 deg N, eight segments of longitude (each 10 deg in width) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two longitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, (one positive and one negative). SCE changes coincide with increasing spring warmth and the earlier diminution of sea ice in the last several decades. However, while sea ice has continued to decrease during this recent interval, snowmelt dates in the Arctic changed in a step-like fashion during the mid to late 1980s and have remained much the same since that time.

Including land cover change in analysis of greenness trends using all available Landsat 5, 7, and 8 images: A case study from Guangzhou, China (2000–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhe; Fu, Yingchun; Woodcock, Curtis; Olofsson, Pontus; Vogelmann, James; Holden, Christopher; Wang, Min; Dai, Shu; Yu, Yang

2016-01-01

An assessment of the consistency of surface reflectance from Landsat 8 with past Landsat sensors indicates biases in the visible bands of Landsat 8, especially the blue band. Landsat 8 NDVI values were found to have a larger bias than the EVI values; therefore, EVI was used in the analysis of greenness trends for Guangzhou. In spite of massive amounts of development in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2014, greenness was found to increase, mostly as a result of gradual change. Comparison of the greening magnitudes estimated from the approach presented here and a Simple Linear Trend (SLT) method indicated large differences for certain time intervals as the SLT method does not include consideration for abrupt land cover changes. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the importance of considering land cover change when analyzing trends in greenness from satellite time series in areas where land cover change is common.

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Holmgren, Mandy; Wilkerson, Robert; Siegel, Rodney; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Ransom, Jason I.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John; Huff, Mark

2017-01-01

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N-mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Relaxation of the one child policy and trends in caesarean section rates and birth outcomes in China between 2012 and 2016: observational study of nearly seven million health facility births

PubMed Central

Liang, Juan; Mu, Yi; Li, Xiaohong; Tang, Wen; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Zheng; Huang, Xiaona; Scherpbier, Robert W; Guo, Sufang; Li, Mingrong; Dai, Li; Deng, Kui; Deng, Changfei; Li, Qi; Kang, Leni; Zhu, Jun

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China. Design Observational study. Setting China’s National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS). Participants 6 838 582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight ≥1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016. Main outcome measures Obstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time. Results Caesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government’s policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time. Conclusions China is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China’s success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China’s experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter. PMID:29506980

Fertility time trends in dairy herds in northern Portugal.

PubMed

Rocha, A; Martins, A; Carvalheira, J

2010-10-01

The economics of dairy production are in great part dictated by the reproductive efficiency of the herds. Many studies have reported a widespread decrease in fertility of dairy cows. In a previous work (Rocha et al. 2001), we found a very poor oestrus detection rate (38%), and consequently a delayed calving to 1st AI and calving to conception intervals. However, a good conception rate at 1st AI was noted (51%) resulting in a low number of inseminations per pregnancy (IAP) (1.4). Here, results from a subsequent fertility time trend assessment study carried out in the same region for cows born from 1992 to 2002 are reported. Statistical linear models were used to analyse the data. Estimate linear contrasts of least square means were computed from each model. The number of observations per studied index varied from 12,130 (culling rate) to 57,589 (non-return rate). Mean age at first calving was 28.9 ± 0.14 months, without (p > 0.05) variation over time. There was a small, but significant (p < 0.05), deterioration of all other parameters. Non-return rates at 90 days and calving rate at 1st AI decreased 0.3% per trimester, with a consequent increase of 0.04 IA/parturition. Oestrus detection rate decreased 0.13% per year, and calving at 1st AI and calving-conception intervals increased 0.17 and 0.07 days/year respectively, while intercalving interval increased 1.7 days per year. From 12,130 cows calving, only 1,816 had a 4th lactation (85% culling/losses). The data was not meant to draw conclusions on the causes for the decreased fertility over time, but an increase of milk production from 6537 kg to 8590 kg (305 days) from 1996 to 2002 is probably one factor to take into consideration. Specific measures to revert or slow down this trend of decreasing fertility are warranted. Available strategies are discussed. © 2009 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A Millennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Record From the North Atlantic Based on Diatoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miettinen, A.; Koc, N.

2008-12-01

Sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) are generated from a 1000-year-long sediment core from the eastern flank of Reykjanes Ridge in the subpolar North Atlantic with a time resolution of 2-10 years. 54.3 cm long box core (Rapid 21-12B) and 370 cm long gravity core (RAPID 21-3K) were recovered from deep-sea sediments (2630 m water depth) during the RRS Charles Darwin cruise 159 in 2004. The box core is dated using the 210Pb method and it is continuously subsampled and investigated at 0.5 cm intervals for the last 230 years with a two years average time resolution. The gravity core is dated 14C AMS method and it is investigated continuously at 1.0 cm intervals with a ten years average resolution for the interval representing 230-1000 cal. years BP. August SSTs are reconstructed using marine planktonic diatom species with the Weighted Averages - Partial Least Squares (WA-PLS) method. Results achieved from the box core indicate August SST warming of c. 1 °C from 1773 AD to the present. The interval 1773-1830 represents the cold period at the investigated site. It is followed by warm period between 1830 and 1885. After this the temperature frequency is more stable with short cool events around 1890 and 1930. The last 60 years represent the warm period with a slow warming trend, especially during the past 25 years. However, results do not indicate distinct SST warming since 1870s. The most high-frequency SST variability with amplitude of c. 1 °C appears after 1970 indicating several very warm years, but also coldest years since 1820s.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Mediterranean diet and cognitive function in older age: results from the Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Samieri, Cécilia; Grodstein, Francine; Rosner, Bernard A.; Kang, Jae H.; Cook, Nancy R.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Buring, Julie E.; Willett, Walter C.; Okereke, Olivia I.

2013-01-01

Background Adherence to a Mediterranean diet may help prevent cognitive decline in older age, but studies are limited. We examined the association of adherence to the Mediterranean diet with cognitive function and decline. Methods We included 6,174 participants, aged 65+ years, from the cognitive sub-study of the Women’s Health Study. Women provided dietary information in 1998 and completed a cognitive battery 5 years later, followed by two assessments at 2-year intervals. The primary outcomes were composite scores of global cognition and verbal memory. The alternate Mediterranean diet adherence 9-point-score was constructed based on intakes of: vegetables, fruits, legumes, whole grains, nuts, fish, red and processed meats, moderate alcohol, and the ratio of monounsaturated-to-saturated fats. Results After multivariable adjustment, the alternate Mediterranean diet score was not associated with trajectories of repeated cognitive scores (P-trend across quintiles=0.26 and 0.40 for global cognition and verbal memory, respectively), nor with overall global cognition and verbal memory at older ages, assessed by averaging the three cognitive measures (P-trend=0.63 and 0.44, respectively). Among alternate Mediterranean diet components, higher monounsaturated-to-saturated fats ratio was associated with more favorable cognitive trajectories (P-trend=0.03 and 0.05 for global cognition and verbal memory, respectively). Greater whole grain intake was not associated with cognitive trajectories, but was related to better average global cognition (P-trend=0.02). Conclusions In this large study of older women, we observed no association of the Mediterranean diet with cognitive decline. Relations between individual Mediterranean diet components, particularly whole grains, and cognitive function merit further study. PMID:23676264

Meat and components of meat and the risk of bladder cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study.

PubMed

Ferrucci, Leah M; Sinha, Rashmi; Ward, Mary H; Graubard, Barry I; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Kilfoy, Briseis A; Schatzkin, Arthur; Michaud, Dominique S; Cross, Amanda J

2010-09-15

Meat could be involved in bladder carcinogenesis via multiple potentially carcinogenic meat-related compounds related to cooking and processing, including nitrate, nitrite, heterocyclic amines (HCAs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The authors comprehensively investigated the association between meat and meat components and bladder cancer. During 7 years of follow-up, 854 transitional cell bladder-cancer cases were identified among 300,933 men and women who had completed a validated food-frequency questionnaire in the large prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. The authors estimated intake of nitrate and nitrite from processed meat and HCAs and PAHs from cooked meat by using quantitative databases of measured values. Total dietary nitrate and nitrite were calculated based on literature values. The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for red meat (HR for fifth quintile compared with first quintile, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.96-1.54; P(trend) = .07) and the HCA 2-amino-1 methyl-6-phenylimidazo(4,5-b)pyridine (PhIP) (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.95-1.48; P(trend) = .06) conferred a borderline statistically significant increased risk of bladder cancer. Positive associations were observed in the top quintile for total dietary nitrite (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.02-1.61; P(trend) = .06) and nitrate plus nitrite intake from processed meat (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.00-1.67; P(trend) = .11). These findings provided modest support for an increased risk of bladder cancer with total dietary nitrite and nitrate plus nitrite from processed meat. Results also suggested a positive association between red meat and PhIP and bladder carcinogenesis. © 2010 American Cancer Society.

Meat and components of meat and the risk of bladder cancer in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study

PubMed Central

Ferrucci, Leah M.; Sinha, Rashmi; Ward, Mary H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Hollenbeck, Albert R.; Kilfoy, Briseis A.; Schatzkin, Arthur; Michaud, Dominique S.; Cross, Amanda J.

2010-01-01

Background Meat could be involved in bladder carcinogenesis via multiple potentially carcinogenic meat-related compounds related to cooking and processing, including nitrate, nitrite, heterocyclic amines (HCAs), and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. We comprehensively investigated the association between meat and meat components and bladder cancer. Methods During 7 years of follow-up, 854 transitional cell bladder cancer cases were identified among 300,933 men and women who completed a validated food frequency questionnaire in the large prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. We estimated intake of nitrate and nitrite from processed meat and HCAs and PAHs from cooked meat using quantitative databases of measured values. We calculated total dietary nitrate and nitrite based on literature values. Results The hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for red meat (HR for fifth compared to first quintile=1.22, 95% CI=0.96–1.54, p-trend=0.07) and the HCA 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenylimidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP) (HR=1.19, 95% CI=0.95–1.48, p-trend=0.06) conferred a borderline statistically significant increased risk of bladder cancer. We observed positive associations in the top quintile for total dietary nitrite (HR=1.28, 95% CI=1.02–1.61, p-trend= 0.06) and nitrate plus nitrite intake from processed meat (HR=1.29 95% CI=1.00–1.67, p-trend= 0.11). Conclusions These findings provide modest support for a role for total dietary nitrite and nitrate plus nitrite from processed meat in bladder cancer. Our results also suggest a positive association between red meat and PhIP and bladder carcinogenesis. PMID:20681011

Geographic Variation in Cancer Incidence among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan (1995–2009)

PubMed Central

Hung, Giun-Yi; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Yen, Hsiu-Ju; Lee, Chih-Ying; Lee, Yu-Sheng

2015-01-01

Background Evidence from our recent study suggested that the overall trend for cancer incidence in children and adolescents has been increasing in Taiwan. Methods To analyze geographic variations in this trend, cancer frequencies and incidence rates of disease groups were quantified according to geographic areas among 12,633 patients aged <20 years during 1995–2009 by using the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. Three geographic levels were defined, namely county or city, region (Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan), and local administrative area (special municipality, provincial city, county-administered city, township, and aboriginal area). Results Of the regions, Northern Taiwan had the highest incidence rate at 139.6 per million person-years, followed by Central (132.8), Southern (131.8), and Eastern (128.4) Taiwan. Significantly higher standardized rate ratios (SRRs) were observed in Northern Taiwan (SRR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02–1.10) and at the township level (SRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03–1.11). Of the cities or counties, New Taipei City yielded the highest SRR (1.08), followed by Taipei City (SRR = 1.07). A comparison of the rates in the four regions and the remainder of Taiwan according to cancer type revealed that only the rate of neuroblastomas in Eastern Taiwan was significantly low. Trend analysis showed that the most significant increase in incidence rate was observed at the township level, with an annual percent change of 1.8% during the 15-year study period. Conclusions The high rate of childhood cancer in Northern Taiwan and at the township level deserves further attention. The potential impacts of environmental factors on the upward trend of childhood cancer incidence rate in townships warrant further investigation. PMID:26192415

Geographic Variation in Cancer Incidence among Children and Adolescents in Taiwan (1995-2009).

PubMed

Hung, Giun-Yi; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Yen, Hsiu-Ju; Lee, Chih-Ying; Lee, Yu-Sheng

2015-01-01

Evidence from our recent study suggested that the overall trend for cancer incidence in children and adolescents has been increasing in Taiwan. To analyze geographic variations in this trend, cancer frequencies and incidence rates of disease groups were quantified according to geographic areas among 12,633 patients aged <20 years during 1995-2009 by using the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. Three geographic levels were defined, namely county or city, region (Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan), and local administrative area (special municipality, provincial city, county-administered city, township, and aboriginal area). Of the regions, Northern Taiwan had the highest incidence rate at 139.6 per million person-years, followed by Central (132.8), Southern (131.8), and Eastern (128.4) Taiwan. Significantly higher standardized rate ratios (SRRs) were observed in Northern Taiwan (SRR = 1.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02-1.10) and at the township level (SRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.03-1.11). Of the cities or counties, New Taipei City yielded the highest SRR (1.08), followed by Taipei City (SRR = 1.07). A comparison of the rates in the four regions and the remainder of Taiwan according to cancer type revealed that only the rate of neuroblastomas in Eastern Taiwan was significantly low. Trend analysis showed that the most significant increase in incidence rate was observed at the township level, with an annual percent change of 1.8% during the 15-year study period. The high rate of childhood cancer in Northern Taiwan and at the township level deserves further attention. The potential impacts of environmental factors on the upward trend of childhood cancer incidence rate in townships warrant further investigation.

An increasing trend of rural infections of human influenza A (H7N9) from 2013 to 2017: A retrospective analysis of patient exposure histories in Zhejiang province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Enfu; Wang, Maggie H; He, Fan; Sun, Riyang; Cheng, Wei; Zee, Benny C Y; Lau, Steven Y F; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Chong, Ka Chun

2018-01-01

Although investigations have shown that closing live poultry markets (LPMs) is highly effective in controlling human influenza A (H7N9) infections, many of the urban LPMs were shut down, but rural LPMs remained open. This study aimed to compare the proportional changes between urban and rural infections in the Zhejiang province from 2013 to 2017 by analyzing the exposure histories of human cases. All laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 from 2013 (the first wave) to 2017 (the fifth wave) in the Zhejiang province of China were analyzed. Urban and rural infections were defined based on the locations of poultry exposure (direct and indirect) in urban areas (central towns) and rural areas (towns and villages on the outskirts of cities). A Chi-square trend test was used to compare the proportional trend between urban and rural infections over time and logistic regression was used to obtain the odds ratio by years. From 2013 to 2017, a statistically significant trend in rural infections was observed (p <0.01). The incremental odds ratio by years of rural infections was 1.59 with 95% confidence intervals of 1.34 to 1.86. Each year, significant increases in the proportion of live poultry transactions in LPMS and poultry processing plants were detected in conjunction with an increased proportion of urban and rural infections. The empirical evidence indicated a need for heightened infection control measures in rural areas, such as serving rural farms and backyards as active surveillance points for the H7N9 virus. Other potential interventions such as the vaccination of poultry and extending the closure of LPMs to the provincial level require further careful investigations.

Testing-adjusted chlamydia notification trends in New South Wales, Australia, 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Cretikos, Michelle; Mayne, Darren; Reynolds, Roderick; Spokes, Paula; Madeddu, Daniel

2014-01-01

Between 2005 and 2010, Australian notification rates for chlamydia infection increased by 64% from 203 to 333 per 100 000 population. Interpreting this trend is difficult without examining rates and local patterns of testing. We examined the effect of adjusting for local testing rates on chlamydia notification trends in New South Wales (NSW), Australia from 2000 to 2010. We used testing data for NSW residents for Medicare Benefits Schedule items for chlamydia from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2005 and 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2010. This data set excluded testing by public sector laboratories. We also obtained laboratory-confirmed genital chlamydia notifications in NSW residents for 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2010 and excluded notifications from public laboratories. We used negative binomial regression to assess trends in chlamydia notification rates by age and sex after adjusting for local government area (LGA)-level Medicare-funded testing rates, socioeconomic disadvantage, remoteness and Medicare provider density. Testing-adjusted rates of chlamydia notifications declined by 5.2% per annum (rate ratio [RR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.93-0.96) for women overall, and 2.3% (RR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-1.00) and 5.0% per annum (RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.93-0.98) for men in LGAs with moderate and high densities of Medicare providers, respectively. Notification rates remained stable for men in low Medicare provider density LGAs (RR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.96-1.07). It is likely that increased testing for chlamydia has driven increases in chlamydia notification in NSW over the last decade. Notification data provide no evidence for a general increase in the prevalence of chlamydia in the NSW community for this period. Notification-based chlamydia surveillance should be routinely adjusted for local testing rates.

The Benefit of Bone Health by Drinking Coffee among Korean Postmenopausal Women: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Fourth & Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.

PubMed

Choi, Eunjoo; Choi, Kyung-Hyun; Park, Sang Min; Shin, Doosup; Joh, Hee-Kyung; Cho, Eunyoung

2016-01-01

Although the concern about coffee-associated health problems is increasing, the effect of coffee on osteoporosis is still conflicting. This study aimed to determine the relationship between coffee consumption and bone health in Korean postmenopausal women. A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed using a nationally representative sample of the Korean general population. All 4,066 postmenopausal women (mean age 62.6 years) from the fourth and fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008-2011), who completed the questionnaire about coffee consumption and had data of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) examination. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using DXA at the femoral neck and lumbar spine and osteoporosis was defined by World Health Organization T-score criteria in addition to self-report of current anti-osteoporotic medication use. After adjusting for various demographic and lifestyle confounders (including hormonal factors), subjects in the highest quartile of coffee intake had 36% lower odds for osteoporosis compared to those in the lowest quartile (Adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-0.95; P for trend = 0.015). This trend was consistent in osteoporosis of lumbar spine and femoral neck (aOR = 0.65 and 0.55; P for trend = 0.026 and 0.003, respectively). In addition, age- and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted BMD of the femoral neck and lumbar spine increased with higher coffee intake (P for trend = 0.019 and 0.051, respectively). Coffee consumption may have protective benefits on bone health in Korean postmenopausal women in moderate amount. Further, prospective studies are required to confirm this association.

The Benefit of Bone Health by Drinking Coffee among Korean Postmenopausal Women: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Fourth & Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

PubMed Central

Park, Sang Min; Shin, Doosup; Joh, Hee-Kyung; Cho, Eunyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose Although the concern about coffee-associated health problems is increasing, the effect of coffee on osteoporosis is still conflicting. This study aimed to determine the relationship between coffee consumption and bone health in Korean postmenopausal women. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed using a nationally representative sample of the Korean general population. All 4,066 postmenopausal women (mean age 62.6 years) from the fourth and fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008–2011), who completed the questionnaire about coffee consumption and had data of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) examination. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured using DXA at the femoral neck and lumbar spine and osteoporosis was defined by World Health Organization T-score criteria in addition to self-report of current anti-osteoporotic medication use. Results After adjusting for various demographic and lifestyle confounders (including hormonal factors), subjects in the highest quartile of coffee intake had 36% lower odds for osteoporosis compared to those in the lowest quartile (Adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43–0.95; P for trend = 0.015). This trend was consistent in osteoporosis of lumbar spine and femoral neck (aOR = 0.65 and 0.55; P for trend = 0.026 and 0.003, respectively). In addition, age- and body mass index (BMI)-adjusted BMD of the femoral neck and lumbar spine increased with higher coffee intake (P for trend = 0.019 and 0.051, respectively). Conclusions Coffee consumption may have protective benefits on bone health in Korean postmenopausal women in moderate amount. Further, prospective studies are required to confirm this association. PMID:26816211

Risk of HPV-16/18 Infections and Associated Cervical Abnormalities in Women Seropositive for Naturally Acquired Antibodies: Pooled Analysis Based on Control Arms of Two Large Clinical Trials.

PubMed

Safaeian, Mahboobeh; Castellsagué, Xavier; Hildesheim, Allan; Wacholder, Sholom; Schiffman, Mark H; Bozonnat, Marie-Cécile; Baril, Laurence; Rosillon, Dominique

2018-06-05

Studies on the role of antibodies produced after infection with human papillomavirus 18 (HPV-18) and subsequent protection from HPV-18 infection have been conflicting, mainly due to inadequate sample size. We pooled data from the control arms of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial and the PATRICIA trial. Using Poisson regression we compared the risk of newly detected 1-time HPV-18 infection, HPV-18 1-year persistent infection (12MPI), and HPV-18-associated atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or greater (ASC-US+) lesions between HPV-18 seropositive and seronegative women. High HPV-18 antibodies at enrollment was associated with reduced subsequent HPV-18 detection (P trend = 0.001; relative rate [RR] = 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-1.01 for the third quartile; RR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94 for the fourth quartile, compared to seronegative). The risk of 12MPI showed a decreasing trend with increasing antibodies (P trend = 0.06; RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.29-1.77; RR = 0.42; 95% CI, 0.13-1.32 for the third and fourth quartiles, respectively). Lastly, we observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-18 ASC-US+ with increasing antibody (P trend = 0.01; RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-0.97 for the fourth quartile). We also observed a significant decreased risk of HPV-16 infection, 12MPI, and ASC-US+ with increasing HPV-16 antibody level. High HPV-18 naturally acquired antibodies were associated with partial protection from future HPV-18 infections and associated lesions. NCT00128661 and NCT001226810.

Common mental disorder and obesity: insight from four repeat measures over 19 years: prospective Whitehall II cohort study.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Lawlor, Debbie A; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Batty, G David; Ferrie, Jane E; Shipley, Martin J; Nabi, Hermann; Sabia, Séverine; Marmot, Michael G; Jokela, Markus

2009-10-06

To examine potential reciprocal associations between common mental disorders and obesity, and to assess whether dose-response relations exist. Prospective cohort study with four measures of common mental disorders and obesity over 19 years (Whitehall II study). Civil service departments in London. 4363 adults (28% female, mean age 44 years at baseline). Common mental disorder defined as general health questionnaire "caseness;" overweight and obesity based on Word Health Organization definitions. In models adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index at baseline, odds ratios for obesity at the fourth screening were 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.77), 1.64 (1.13 to 2.36), and 2.01 (1.21 to 3.34) for participants with common mental disorder at one, two, or three preceding screenings compared with people free from common mental disorder (P for trend<0.001). The corresponding mean differences in body mass index at the most recent screening were 0.20, 0.31, and 0.50 (P for trend<0.001). These associations remained after adjustment for baseline characteristics related to mental health and exclusion of participants who were obese at baseline. In addition, obesity predicted future risk of common mental disorder, again with evidence of a dose-response relation (P for trend=0.02, multivariable model). However, this association was lost when people with common mental disorder at baseline were excluded (P for trend=0.33). These findings suggest that in British adults the direction of association between common mental disorders and obesity is from common mental disorder to increased future risk of obesity. This association is cumulative such that people with chronic or repeat episodes of common mental disorder are particularly at risk of weight gain.

Association between endogenous sex steroid hormones and insulin-like growth factor proteins in US men.

PubMed

Papatheodorou, Stefania I; Rohrmann, Sabine; Lopez, David S; Bradwin, Gary; Joshu, Corinne E; Kanarek, Norma; Nelson, William G; Rifai, Nader; Platz, Elizabeth A; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K

2014-03-01

Sex steroid hormone concentrations and insulin-like growth factor (IGF) proteins have been independently associated with risk of cancer, chronic diseases, and mortality. However, studies that evaluated the inter-relation between the sex hormones and IGF pathways have provided mixed results. We examined the association between endogenous sex hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with IGF-1 and IGF-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3) in a population-based sample of US men. Data from 1,135 men aged 20 years or older participating in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) were analyzed. Weighted linear regression was used to estimate geometric means and 95 % confidence intervals for IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 concentrations by sex steroid hormones and SHBG after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, waist circumference, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, physical activity, diabetes, and mutually adjusting for other sex hormones and SHBG. No significant association was observed between sex steroid hormones, SHBG, and IGF-1 concentrations. Total estradiol (% difference in Q5 - Q1 geometric means -9.7 %; P-trend 0.05) and SHBG (% difference -7.3 %; P-trend 0.02) were modestly inversely associated with IGFBP-3. Total testosterone was modestly inversely associated with IGFBP-3 (% difference -6.2 %; P-trend 0.01), but this association disappeared after adjustment for total estradiol and SHBG (% difference 2.6 %; P-trend 0.23). Androstanediol glucuronide was not associated with IGFBP-3. These findings suggest that there may be inter-relationships between circulating total estradiol, SHBG, and IGFBP-3 concentrations. Future research may consider these inter-relationships when evaluating potential joint effects of the sex hormones and IGF pathways.

A Prospective Investigation of Coffee Drinking and Bladder Cancer Incidence in the United States.

PubMed

Loftfield, Erikka; Freedman, Neal D; Inoue-Choi, Maki; Graubard, Barry I; Sinha, Rashmi

2017-09-01

In 1991, coffee was classified as a group 2B carcinogen, possibly carcinogenic to humans, based on limited epidemiologic evidence of a positive association with bladder cancer. In 2016, the International Agency for Research on Cancer downgraded this classification due to lack of evidence from prospective studies particularly for never smokers. Baseline coffee drinking was assessed with a food frequency questionnaire in the NIH-AARP prospective cohort study. Among 469,047 US adults, who were cancer free at baseline, 6,012 bladder cancer cases (5,088 men and 924 women) were identified during >6.3 million person-years of follow-up. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), with non-coffee drinkers as the reference group. Coffee drinking was positively associated with bladder cancer in models adjusted for age and sex (HR for ≥4 cups/d relative to coffee nondrinkers = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.70, 2.14; P trend < 0.0001). However, the association was substantially attenuated after adjustment for cigarette smoking and other potential confounders (HR for ≥4 cups/d relative to coffee nondrinkers = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.33; P trend = 0.0007). Associations were further attenuated after additional adjustment for lifetime smoking patterns among the majority of the cohort with this available data (P trend = 0.16). There was no evidence of an association among never smokers (P trend = 0.84). Positive associations between coffee drinking and bladder cancer among ever smokers but not never smokers suggest that residual confounding from imperfect measurement of smoking or unmeasured risk factors may be an explanation for our positive findings.

Body weight, fat distribution and colorectal cancer risk: a report from cohort studies of 134255 Chinese men and women.

PubMed

Li, H; Yang, G; Xiang, Y-B; Zhang, X; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Shu, X-O

2013-06-01

The objective was to evaluate the association of body size and fat distribution with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Chinese men and women. This was a population-based, prospective cohort study. The analysis included 134,255 Chinese adults enrolled in the Shanghai Women's Health Study and the Shanghai Men's Health Study, with an average follow-up of 11.0 and 5.5 years, respectively. Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were measured by trained interviewers at baseline. Multivariable Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident CRC. A total of 935 incident CRC cases were identified. Both measures of general adiposity (measured by BMI) and central adiposity (measured by WHR and WC) were significantly associated with an increased risk of colon cancer in men but not in women. Multivariable-adjusted HRs for colon cancer in men in the highest compared with the lowest quintiles were 2.15 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35-3.43; P for trend=0.0006) for BMI, 1.97 (95% CI: 1.19-3.24; P for trend=0.0004) for WHR and 2.00 (95% CI: 1.21-3.29; P for trend=0.0002) for WC. The BMI-associated risk was attenuated in analyses stratified by WHR, whereas the WHR-associated risk remained significant in the high BMI stratum (HR for comparison of extreme tertiles of WHR: 3.38, 95% CI: 1.47-7.75; P for trend =0.0002). None of these anthropometric measures were significantly associated with rectal cancer. Obesity, particularly central obesity, was associated with an increased risk of colon cancer in men.

Impact of fecal immunochemical test-based screening programs on proximal and distal colorectal cancer surgery rates: A natural multiple-baseline experiment.

PubMed

Fedeli, Ugo; Zorzi, Manuel; Urso, Emanuele D L; Gennaro, Nicola; Dei Tos, Angelo P; Saugo, Mario

2015-11-15

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs based on the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) were found to reduce overall CRC surgery rates, but to the authors' knowledge data by subsite are lacking. The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of FIT-based screening on proximal and distal CRC surgical resection rates. The Veneto region in Italy can be subdivided into 3 areas with staggered introduction of FIT-based screening programs: early (2002-2004), intermediate (2005-2007), and late (2008-2009) areas. Time series of proximal and distal CRC surgery were investigated in the 3 populations between 2001 and 2012 by Joinpoint regression analysis and segmented Poisson regression models. The impact of screening was similar in the study populations. Rates of distal CRC surgical resection were stable before screening, increased at the time of screening implementation (rate ratio [RR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.14-1.37), and thereafter declined by 10% annually (RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92). Rates of proximal CRC surgical resection increased by 4% annually before screening (RR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.05) but, after a peak at the time of screening initiation, the trend was reversed. The percentage represented by proximal CRC surgery rose from 28% in 2001 to 41% in 2012. In this natural multiple-baseline experiment, consistent findings across each time series demonstrated that FIT-based screening programs have an impact both on proximal and distal CRC surgery rates. However, underlying preexisting epidemiological trends are leading to a rapidly increasing percentage of proximal CRC. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Body Size of Male Youth Soccer Players: 1978-2015.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Figueiredo, António J; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

2017-10-01

Studies of the body size and proportions of athletes have a long history. Comparisons of athletes within specific sports across time, though not extensive, indicate both positive and negative trends. To evaluate secular variation in heights and weights of male youth soccer players reported in studies between 1978 and 2015. Reported mean ages, heights, and weights of male soccer players 9-18 years of age were extracted from the literature and grouped into two intervals: 1978-99 and 2000-15. A third-order polynomial was fitted to the mean heights and weights across the age range for each interval, while the Preece-Baines model 1 was fitted to the grand means of mean heights and mean weights within each chronological year to estimate ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity for each time interval. Third-order polynomials applied to all data points and estimates based on the Preece-Baines model applied to grand means for each age group provided similar fits. Both indicated secular changes in body size between the two intervals. Secular increases in height and weight between 1978-99 and 2000-15 were especially apparent between 13 and 16 years of age, but estimated ages at peak height velocity (13.01 and 12.91 years) and peak weight velocity (13.86 and 13.77 years) did not differ between the time intervals. Although the body size of youth soccer players increased between 1978-99 and 2000-15, estimated ages at peak height velocity and peak weight velocity did not change. The increase in height and weight likely reflected improved health and nutritional conditions, in addition to the selectivity of soccer reflected in systematic selection and retention of players advanced in maturity status, and exclusion of late maturing players beginning at about 12-13 years of age. Enhanced training programs aimed at the development of strength and power are probably an additional factor contributing to secular increases in body weight.

Ratio-based lengths of intervals to improve fuzzy time series forecasting.

PubMed

Huarng, Kunhuang; Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang

2006-04-01

The objective of this study is to explore ways of determining the useful lengths of intervals in fuzzy time series. It is suggested that ratios, instead of equal lengths of intervals, can more properly represent the intervals among observations. Ratio-based lengths of intervals are, therefore, proposed to improve fuzzy time series forecasting. Algebraic growth data, such as enrollments and the stock index, and exponential growth data, such as inventory demand, are chosen as the forecasting targets, before forecasting based on the various lengths of intervals is performed. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses are also carried out for various percentiles. The ratio-based lengths of intervals are found to outperform the effective lengths of intervals, as well as the arbitrary ones in regard to the different statistical measures. The empirical analysis suggests that the ratio-based lengths of intervals can also be used to improve fuzzy time series forecasting.

Can the Internet be used to reach parents for family-based childhood obesity interventions?

PubMed

Hohman, Katherine H; Price, Sarah N; Sonneville, Kendrin; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L; Gortmaker, Steven L; Gillman, Matthew W; Taveras, Elsie M

2012-04-01

This study aimed to identify socioeconomic correlates of computer/Internet use among parents of overweight preschool-aged children. A total of 470 baseline participants in a trial to prevent obesity in children 2 to 6.9 years old with body mass index ≥ 95th percentile or 85th to 95th percentile with one overweight parent were studied. Interviews with parents used Health Information National Trends Survey questions. Overall, 94% of the participants had home computers and 93% reported Internet usage. In adjusted models, parents with ≤ college degree (odds ratio = 4.8; 95% confidence interval = 1.2-18.3) or with household income ≤$50,000 (odds ratio = 7.6; 95% confidence interval = 2.2-26.8) had decreased likelihood of computer ownership. Of parents who reported going online, 63% used Internet to look for health/medical information for themselves and 42% for their children. Parents with ≤ a college degree or with body mass index <25 kg/m(2) were less likely to use Internet. Results support using the Internet for early childhood obesity prevention with enhanced outreach efforts for low socioeconomic status families.

Devonian climate and reef evolution: Insights from oxygen isotopes in apatite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joachimski, M. M.; Breisig, S.; Buggisch, W.; Talent, J. A.; Mawson, R.; Gereke, M.; Morrow, J. R.; Day, J.; Weddige, K.

2009-07-01

Conodonts, microfossils composed of carbonate-fluor apatite, are abundant in Palaeozoic-Triassic sediments and have a high potential to preserve primary oxygen isotope signals. In order to reconstruct the palaeotemperature history of the Devonian, the oxygen isotope composition of apatite phosphate was measured on 639 conodont samples from sequences in Europe, North America and Australia. The Early Devonian (Lochkovian; 416-411 Myr) was characterized by warm tropical temperatures of around 30 °C. A cooling trend started in the Pragian (410 Myr) with intermediate temperatures around 23 to 25 °C reconstructed for the Middle Devonian (397-385 Myr). During the Frasnian (383-375 Myr), temperatures increased again with temperatures to 30 °C calculated for the Frasnian-Famennian transition (375 Myr). During the Famennian (375-359 Myr), surface water temperatures slightly decreased. Reconstructed Devonian palaeotemperatures do not support earlier views suggesting the Middle Devonian was a supergreenhouse interval, an interpretation based partly on the development of extensive tropical coral-stromatoporoid communities during the Middle Devonian. Instead, the Devonian palaeotemperature record suggests that Middle Devonian coral-stromatoporoid reefs flourished during cooler time intervals whereas microbial reefs dominated during the warm to very warm Early and Late Devonian.

Airborne Precision Spacing for Dependent Parallel Operations Interface Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, Paul M.; Takallu, M. A.; Hoffler, Keith D.; Weiser, Jarold; Turner, Dexter

2012-01-01

This paper describes a usability study of proposed cockpit interfaces to support Airborne Precision Spacing (APS) operations for aircraft performing dependent parallel approaches (DPA). NASA has proposed an airborne system called Pair Dependent Speed (PDS) which uses their Airborne Spacing for Terminal Arrival Routes (ASTAR) algorithm to manage spacing intervals. Interface elements were designed to facilitate the input of APS-DPA spacing parameters to ASTAR, and to convey PDS system information to the crew deemed necessary and/or helpful to conduct the operation, including: target speed, guidance mode, target aircraft depiction, and spacing trend indication. In the study, subject pilots observed recorded simulations using the proposed interface elements in which the ownship managed assigned spacing intervals from two other arriving aircraft. Simulations were recorded using the Aircraft Simulation for Traffic Operations Research (ASTOR) platform, a medium-fidelity simulator based on a modern Boeing commercial glass cockpit. Various combinations of the interface elements were presented to subject pilots, and feedback was collected via structured questionnaires. The results of subject pilot evaluations show that the proposed design elements were acceptable, and that preferable combinations exist within this set of elements. The results also point to potential improvements to be considered for implementation in future experiments.

Meat, Dietary Heme Iron, and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Singapore Chinese Health Study.

PubMed

Talaei, Mohammad; Wang, Ye-Li; Yuan, Jian-Min; Pan, An; Koh, Woon-Puay

2017-10-01

We evaluated the relationships of red meat, poultry, fish, and shellfish intakes, as well as heme iron intake, with the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D).The Singapore Chinese Health Study is a population-based cohort study that recruited 63,257 Chinese adults aged 45-74 years from 1993 to 1998. Usual diet was evaluated using a validated 165-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire at recruitment. Physician-diagnosed T2D was self-reported during 2 follow-up interviews in 1999-2004 and 2006-2010. During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 5,207 incident cases of T2D were reported. When comparing persons in the highest intake quartiles with those in the lowest, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio for T2D was 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 1.33) for red meat intake (P for trend < 0.001), 1.15 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.24) for poultry intake (P for trend = 0.004), and 1.07 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.16) for fish/shellfish intake (P for trend = 0.12). After additional adjustment for heme iron, only red meat intake remained significantly associated with T2D risk (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.25; P for trend = 0.02). Heme iron was associated with a higher risk of T2D even after additional adjustment for red meat intake (multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.28; P for trend = 0.03). In conclusion, red meat and poultry intakes were associated with a higher risk of T2D. These associations were mediated completely for poultry and partially for red meat by heme iron intake. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Evaluating Trends in Historical PM2.5 Element Concentrations by Reanalyzing a 15-Year Sample Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyslop, N. P.; White, W. H.; Trzepla, K.

2014-12-01

The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments) network monitors aerosol concentrations at 170 remote sites throughout the United States. Twenty-four-hour filter samples of particulate matter are collected every third day and analyzed for chemical composition. About 30 of the sites have operated continuously since 1988, and the sustained data record (http://views.cira.colostate.edu/web/) offers a unique window on regional aerosol trends. All elemental analyses have been performed by Crocker Nuclear Laboratory at the University of California in Davis, and sample filters collected since 1995 are archived on campus. The suite of reported elements has remained constant, but the analytical methods employed for their determination have evolved. For example, the elements Na - Mn were determined by PIXE until November 2001, then by XRF analysis in a He-flushed atmosphere through 2004, and by XRF analysis in vacuum since January 2005. In addition to these fundamental changes, incompletely-documented operational factors such as detector performance and calibration details have introduced variations in the measurements. Because the past analytical methods were non-destructive, the archived filters can be re-analyzed with the current analytical systems and protocols. The 15-year sample archives from Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Mount Rainier (MORA), and Point Reyes National Parks (PORE) were selected for reanalysis. The agreement between the new analyses and original determinations varies with element and analytical era. The graph below compares the trend estimates for all the elements measured by IMPROVE based on the original and repeat analyses; the elements identified in color are measured above the detection limit more than 90% of the time. The trend estimates are sensitive to the treatment of non-detect data. The original and reanalysis trends are indistinguishable (have overlapping confidence intervals) for most of the well-detected elements.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Alterations of Blood Pressure and ECG following Two-Week Consumption of Berberis integerrima Fruit Extract

PubMed Central

Mahdavi, Naser

2014-01-01

In light of the popularity and also the various nutritional and medicinal properties of Berberis integerrima, this study was conducted to assess the influence of its aqueous extract on hemodynamic and electrocardiogram (ECG) indices of rat. Animals were divided to control (CTL), B50, B100, and B200 groups that orally received tap water, aqueous extracts of B. integerrima fruit 50, 100, and 200 mg/kg/day, respectively, for two weeks and on day 15, data were recorded. Different doses of barberry fruit extract had no significant effect on blood pressure, heart rate, RR interval, P duration, and Q wave amplitude of electrocardiogram. Extract administration was associated with an incremental trend in PR interval that was not statistically significant. Higher doses (100 and 200 mg/kg) of extract significantly increased the QRS interval (P < 0.01 versus CTL and B50 groups) but decreased the QTc interval (P < 0.01 versus CTL group and P < 0.001 versus B50 group), the JT interval, and TpTe interval (P < 0.001 versus CTL and B50 groups). The results suggest that high doses of barberry extract definitely prolong the depolarization phase and shorten the repolarization phase of ventricular muscle and hence induce alteration in heart electrical conductivity. PMID:27351000

Size-dependent reactivity of magnetite nanoparticles: a field-laboratory comparison

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swindle, Andrew L.; Elwood Madden, Andrew S.; Cozzarelli, Isabelle M.; Benamara, Mourad

2014-01-01

Logistic challenges make direct comparisons between laboratory- and field-based investigations into the size-dependent reactivity of nanomaterials difficult. This investigation sought to compare the size-dependent reactivity of nanoparticles in a field setting to a laboratory analog using the specific example of magnetite dissolution. Synthetic magnetite nanoparticles of three size intervals, ∼6 nm, ∼44 nm, and ∼90 nm were emplaced in the subsurface of the USGS research site at the Norman Landfill for up to 30 days using custom-made subsurface nanoparticle holders. Laboratory analog dissolution experiments were conducted using synthetic groundwater. Reaction products were analyzed via TEM and SEM and compared to initial particle characterizations. Field results indicated that an organic coating developed on the particle surfaces largely inhibiting reactivity. Limited dissolution occurred, with the amount of dissolution decreasing as particle size decreased. Conversely, the laboratory analogs without organics revealed greater dissolution of the smaller particles. These results showed that the presence of dissolved organics led to a nearly complete reversal in the size-dependent reactivity trends displayed between the field and laboratory experiments indicating that size-dependent trends observed in laboratory investigations may not be relevant in organic-rich natural systems.

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a small statistically significant increase in peaks greater than the base streamflow. The greatest increase was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) during 1962‒2012; the increase was 1.8 ft3/s per decade. There were no statistically significant trends in the number of floods equal to or greater than the 2-year recurrence interval flood flow.Twenty‒one monitoring wells were evaluated for statistically significant trends in annual mean water level, minimum annual water level, maximum annual water level, and annual range in water-level fluctuations. For four wells, a small statistically significant increase in annual mean water level was determined that ranged from 0.16 to 0.7 feet per decade. There was poor or no correlation between annual mean groundwater levels and annual mean streamflow and base flow. No correlation was determined between annual mean groundwater level and annual precipitation. Despite rapid population growth and land-use change since 1950, there appears to have been little or no detrimental effects on groundwater levels in 21 monitoring wells.Long-term precipitation and temperature data were available from the West Chester (1893‒2013) and Phoenixville, Pa. (1915‒2013) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather stations. No statistically significant trends in annual mean precipitation or annual mean temperature were determined for either station. Both weather stations had a significant decrease in the number of days per year with precipitation greater than or equal to 0.1 inch. Annual mean minimum and maximum temperatures from the NOAA Southeastern Piedmont Climate Division increased 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (F) per decade between 1896 and 2014. The number of days with a maximum temperature equal to or greater than 90 degrees F increased at West Chester and decreased at Phoenixville. No statistically significant trend was determined for annual snowfall amounts.Data from 1974 to 2013 for three stream water-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and average streamflow was 21.4 inches. Average runoff and base flow were 8.3 and 13.1 inches, respectively, and average evapotranspiration and estimation of errors was 27.2 inches."

Population-level impact of white-nose syndrome on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; McKann, Patrick C.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (-0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.8, +1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,398-957,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006-2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI = -21.1, +2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

Water resources of Claiborne Parish, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fendick, Robert B.; Prakken, Lawrence B.; Griffith, Jason M.

2013-01-01

This fact sheet summarizes basic information on the water resources of Claiborne Parish. Information on groundwater and surface-water availability, quality, development, use, and trends is based on previously published reports listed in the Cited References section. In 2010, about 2.60 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) of water were withdrawn in Claiborne Parish, Louisiana, including about 2.42 Mgal/d from groundwater sources and 0.18 Mgal/d from surface-water sources. Public-supply use accounted for about 84 percent of the total water withdrawn. Other categories of use included industrial, rural domestic, livestock, and general irrigation. Water-use data collected at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2010 indicated that total water withdrawals in the parish have ranged from about 2.6 to 3.9 Mgal/d.

Properties of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in the time series of RR intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piskorski, J.; Kosmider, M.; Mieszkowski, D.; Krauze, T.; Wykretowicz, A.; Guzik, P.

2018-02-01

Heart rate asymmetry is a phenomenon by which the accelerations and decelerations of heart rate behave differently, and this difference is consistent and unidirectional, i.e. in most of the analyzed recordings the inequalities have the same directions. So far, it has been established for variance and runs based types of descriptors of RR intervals time series. In this paper we apply the newly developed method of Asymmetric Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, which so far has mainly been used with economic time series, to the set of 420 stationary 30 min time series of RR intervals from young, healthy individuals aged between 20 and 40. This asymmetric approach introduces separate scaling exponents for rising and falling trends. We systematically study the presence of asymmetry in both global and local versions of this method. In this study global means "applying to the whole time series" and local means "applying to windows jumping along the recording". It is found that the correlation structure of the fluctuations left over after detrending in physiological time series shows strong asymmetric features in both magnitude, with α+ <α-, where α+ is related to heart rate decelerations and α- to heart rate accelerations, and the proportion of the signal in which the above inequality holds. A very similar effect is observed if asymmetric noise is added to a symmetric self-affine function. No such phenomena are observed in the same physiological data after shuffling or with a group of symmetric synthetic time series.

Amphibian breeding phenology and reproductive outcome: an examination using terrestrial and aquatic sampling

Treesearch

C.H. Greenberg; S.A. Johnson; R. Owen; A. Storfer

2017-01-01

Worldwide amphibian declines highlight the need for programs that monitor species presence and track population trends. We sampled larval amphibians with a box trap at 3-week intervals for 23 months in eight wetlands, and concurrently trapped adults and juveniles with drift fences, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of tadpole occurrence; explore relationships between...

Soil respiration from four aggrading forested watersheds measured over a quarter century

Treesearch

David C. Coleman; Mark D. Hunter; John Hutton; Steven Pomeroy; Lloyd Swift

2002-01-01

Soil respiration was measured in four aggrading, forested second-growth watersheds in the southern Appalachians using an identical method (alkali absorption) at intervals 23 and 24 years apart. Seasonal trends were similar, with mid-summer maxima and winter minima. Amounts of carbon dioxide evolved were higher in the recent measurements (1995) compared to the earlier...

Medieval Warm Period Archives Preserved in Limpet Shells (Patella Vulgata) From Viking Deposits, United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mobilia, M.; Surge, D.

2008-12-01

The Medieval Warm Period (700-1100 YBP) represents a recent period of warm climate, and as such provides a powerful comparison to today's continuing warming trend. However, the spatial and temporal variability inherent in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) makes it difficult to differentiate between global climate trends and regional variability. The continued study of this period will allow for the better understanding of temperature variability, both regional and global, during this climate interval. Our study is located in the Orkney Islands, Scotland, which is a critical area to understand climate dynamics. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Gulf Stream heavily influence climate in this region, and the study of climate intervals during the MWP will improve our understanding of the behavior of these climate mechanisms during this interval. Furthermore, the vast majority of the climate archive has been derived from either deep marine or arctic environments. Studying a coastal environment will offer valuable insight into the behavior of maritime climate during the MWP. Estimated seasonal sea surface temperature data were derived through isotopic analysis of limpet shells (Patella vulgata). Analysis of modern shells confirms that growth temperature tracks seasonal variation in ambient water temperature. Preliminary data from MWP shells record a seasonal temperature range comparable to that observed in the modern temperature data. We will extend the range of temperature data from the 10th through 14th centuries to advance our knowledge of seasonal temperature variability during the late Holocene.

The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

2015-10-01

The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

Sarcosine and other metabolites along the choline oxidation pathway in relation to prostate cancer--a large nested case-control study within the JANUS cohort in Norway.

PubMed

de Vogel, Stefan; Ulvik, Arve; Meyer, Klaus; Ueland, Per Magne; Nygård, Ottar; Vollset, Stein Emil; Tell, Grethe S; Gregory, Jesse F; Tretli, Steinar; Bjørge, Tone

2014-01-01

Methyl group donors and intermediates of one-carbon metabolism affect DNA synthesis and DNA methylation, and may thereby affect prostate carcinogenesis. Choline, the precursor of betaine, and the one-carbon metabolite sarcosine have been associated with increased prostate cancer risk. Within JANUS, a prospective cohort in Norway (n = 317,000) with baseline serum samples, we conducted a nested case-control study among 3,000 prostate cancer cases and 3,000 controls. Using conditional logistic regression, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for prostate cancer risk were estimated according to quintiles of circulating betaine, dimethylglycine (DMG), sarcosine, glycine and serine. High sarcosine and glycine concentrations were associated with reduced prostate cancer risk of borderline significance (sarcosine: highest vs. lowest quintile OR = 0.86, CI = 0.72-1.01, p(trend) = 0.03; glycine: OR = 0.83, CI = 0.70-1.00, p(trend) = 0.07). Serum betaine, DMG and serine were not associated with prostate cancer risk. However, individuals with a high glycine/serine ratio were at decreased prostate cancer risk (OR = 0.74, CI = 0.69-0.85, p(trend) < 0.001). This population-based study suggested that men with high serum sarcosine or glycine concentrations have modestly reduced prostate cancer risk. Ratios of metabolites reflecting one-carbon balance may be associated with prostate cancer risk, as demonstrated for the glycine/serine ratio, and should be explored in future studies. © 2013 UICC.

An Overview of Tracheal Stenosis Research Trends and Hot Topics.

PubMed

Farzanegan, Roya; Feizabadi, Mansoureh; Ghorbani, Fariba; Movassaghi, Masoud; Vaziri, Esmaeil; Zangi, Mahdi; Lajevardi, Seyedamirmohammad; Shadmehr, Mohammad Behgam

2017-09-01

Tracheal stenosis remains a challenge in the thoracic surgery field. Recognizing the hot topics and major concepts in this area would help the health policy makers to determine their own priorities and design the effective research plans. The present study analyzed and mapped the topics and trends of tracheal stenosis studies over time as well as authors' and countries' contributions. Search results were obtained employing Bibexcel. To determine cold and hot topics, co-occurrence analysis was applied using three international databases 'Web of Science', 'PubMed' and 'Scopus'. Appropriately, different categories in the articles such as keywords, authors, and countries were explored via VOSviewer and NetDraw. Afterward, the trends of research topics were depicted in four time-intervals from 1945 to 2015 by ten co-occurrence terms. The majority of articles were limited to case series and retrospective studies. The studies had been conducted less frequently on prevention, risk factors and incidence determination but extensively on treatment and procedures. Based on the articles indexed in WOS, 45 countries and 8,260 authors have contributed to scientific progress in this field. The highest degree of cooperation occurred between the USA and England with 15 common papers. Most of the published literature in tracheal stenosis research field was about surgical and non-surgical treatments. Conducting the screening and prevention studies would diminish the burden of this disease on the health system as well as the patients and their families' well-being.

Tuberculosis Incidence in Elderly in Serbia: Key Trends in Socioeconomic Transition

PubMed Central

Pešut, Dragica P.; Gledović, Zorana B.; Grgurević, Anita D.; Nagorni-Obradović, Ljudmila M.; Adžić, Tatjana N.

2008-01-01

Aim To examine tuberculosis incidence rates among the elderly in Central Serbia in 1992-2006 period, which was characterized by socioeconomic crisis and migration of population. Methods We analyzed all reported active tuberculosis cases in a 15-year period, especially among patients aged ≥65, according to the Annual Reports of the Institute of Lung Diseases and Tuberculosis in Belgrade and Central Tuberculosis Register. Population estimates with extrapolations were based on 1991 and 2002 census data. Results Total tuberculosis incidence rates showed a slight but non-significant decreasing trend (P = 0.535), and no significant increase was found in patients aged ≥65 years (P = 0.064), with an average age-specific incidence rate for the elderly of 64.0 (95% confidence interval, 60.7-67.4). The increase was significant in patients aged ≥70 years (y = 49.3549 + 2.1186x; P = 0.001), both in men (y = 62.8666 + 2.3977x; P = 0.005) and even more prominently in women (y = 39.8240 + 1.9150x; P < 0.001). The proportion of tuberculosis cases in the elderly peaked in 2005, with 35% of all tuberculosis cases. Conclusion High incidence rates and increasing time trend of tuberculosis in the elderly in Central Serbia is a serious problem, especially among those aged 70 years and over, who might present a target group for active case-finding of the disease. PMID:19090606

Influence of exercise, walking, cycling, and overall nonexercise physical activity on mortality in Chinese women.

PubMed

Matthews, Charles E; Jurj, Adriana L; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Li, Hong-Lan; Yang, Gong; Li, Qi; Gao, Yu-Tang; Zheng, Wei

2007-06-15

This investigation described the effects of exercise, walking, and cycling for transportation, as well as the effect of overall nonexercise physical activity, on mortality in the Shanghai Women's Health Study (1997-2004). Women without heart disease, stroke, or cancer were followed for an average of 5.7 years (n = 67,143), and there were 1,091 deaths from all causes, 537 deaths from cancer, and 251 deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Information about physical activity and relevant covariates was obtained by interview. Proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Exercise and cycling for transportation were both inversely and independently associated with all-cause mortality (p(trend) < 0.05), but walking for transportation was less strongly associated with reduced risk (p(trend) = 0.07). Women reporting no regular exercise but who reported 10 or more metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/day of nonexercise activity were at 25-50% reduced risk (p(trend) < 0.01) relative to less active women (0-9.9 MET-hours/day). Among women reporting the least nonexercise activity (0-9.9 MET-hours/day) but reporting regular exercise participation, exercise was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.99). These findings add new evidence that overall physical activity levels are an important determinant of longevity, and that health benefit can be obtained through an active lifestyle, exercise, or combinations of both.

Assessment of atrial electromechanical interval using echocardiography after catheter ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

Chen, Xiaodong; Chen, Minglong; Wang, Yingying; Yang, Bing; Ju, Weizhu; Zhang, Fengxiang; Cao, Kejiang

2016-01-01

Abstract We sought to investigate variation of atrial electromechanical interval after catheter ablation procedure in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation using pulse Doppler (PW) and pulse tissue Doppler imaging (PW-TDI). A total of 25 consecutive in-patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, who restored sinus rhythm after ablation procedure, were recruited in our cardiac center. Echocardiography was performed on each patient at 2 hours, 1 day, 5 days, 1 month and 3 months after the ablation therapy, and atrial electromechanical delay was measured simultaneously by PW and PW-TDI. There was no significant difference between PW and TDI in measuring atrial electromechanical delay. However, at postoperative 2 hours, peak A detection rates were mathematically but nonsignificantly greater by PW-TDI than by PW. Second, there was a significant decreasing trend in atrial electromechanical interval from postoperative 2 hours to 3 months, but only postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval was significantly greater than atrial electromechanical interval at other time. Lastly, patients without postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval had a significantly longer duration of atrial fibrillation as compared to those with postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval, by the PW or by PW-TDI, respectively. In patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, atrial electromechanical interval may decrease significantly within the first 24 hours after ablation but remain consistent later, and was significantly related to patients’ duration of atrial fibrillation. Atrial electromechanical interval, as a potential predicted factor, is recommended to be measured by either PW or TDI after 24 hours, when patients had recovered sinus rhythm by radiofrequency ablation. PMID:27924066

National and sub-national prevalence, trend, and burden of metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in Iran: 1990 - 2013, study protocol.

PubMed

Peykari, Niloofar; Sepanlou, Sadaf Ghajarieh; Djalalinia, Shirin; Kasaeian, Amir; Parsaeian, Mahboubeh; Ahmadvand, Alireza; Koohpayehzadeh, Jalil; Damari, Behzad; Jamshidi, Hamid Reza; Larijani, Bagher; Farzadfar, Farshad

2014-01-01

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors are the major public health problems. There are some documented trend and point estimations of metabolic risk factors for Iranian population but there are little information about their exposure distribution at sub-national level and no information about their trends and their effects on the population health.  The present study protocol is aimed to provide the standard structure definitions, organization, data sources, methods of data gathering or generating, and data on trend analysis of the metabolic risk factors in NASBOD study. We will estimate 1990 to 2013 trends of prevalence, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years DALYs for MRFs by gender, age group, and province. We will also quantify the uncertainty interval for the estimates of interest. The findings of study could provide practical information regarding metabolic risk factors and their burden for better health policy to reduce the burden of diseases, and to plan cost-effective preventive strategies. The results also could be used for future complementary global, regional, national, and sub national studies.

The 1999-2003 Summary of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pardieck, K.L.; Sauer, J.R.

2007-01-01

Data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey were used to estimate continental and regional changes in bird populations for the 5-yr period 1999-2003 and the 2-yr period 2002-2003. These short-term changes were placed in the context of population trends estimated over the 1966-2003 interval. During 1999-2003, 41% of all species exhibited positive trends over the entire survey area, while 64% of all species exhibited positive change between 2002-2003. The continental and regional percentages of species with positive trends were also analyzed for 12 species groups having shared life-history traits. Survey-wide for the entire survey period, grassland birds exhibited the lowest percentage of increasing species (14%), with their sharpest declines occurring in the West during 1999-2003 (10% increasing). During 1999-2003, short-distance migrants experienced significant declines in all regions, where numbers of species with increasing trends ranged from 22% - 34%. Most species fared well during the 2002-2003 period, with 64% (P < 0.05) increasing survey-wide. This was primarily a result of increases in the Central and Western BBS regions where 21 of 24 species groups exhibited significant increases in the number of species with positive trends.

Temporal trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load: the Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration, 1985-2002.

PubMed

Dorrucci, Maria; Rezza, Giovanni; Porter, Kholoud; Phillips, Andrew

2007-02-15

To determine whether early postseroconversion CD4 cell counts and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) loads have changed over time. Our analysis was based on 22 cohorts of people with known dates of seroconversion from Europe, Australia, and Canada (Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe Collaboration). We focused on individuals seroconverting between 1985 and 2002 who had the first CD4 cell count (n=3687) or HIV load (n=1584) measured within 2 years of seroconversion and before antiretroviral use. Linear regression models were used to assess time trends in postseroconversion CD4 cell count and HIV load. Trends in time to key thresholds were also assessed, using survival analysis. The overall median initial CD4 cell count was 570 cells/ microL (interquartile range [IQR], 413-780 cells/ microL). The median initial HIV load was 35,542 copies/mL (IQR, 7600-153,050 copies/mL; on log(10) scale, 3.9-5.2 log(10) copies/mL). The postseroconversion CD4 cell count changed by an average of -6.33 cells/ microL/year (95% confidence interval [CI], -8.47 to -4.20 cells/ microL/year; P<.001), whereas an increase was observed in log(10) HIV load (+0.044 log(10) copies/mL/year; 95% CI, +0.034 to +0.053 log(10) copies/mL/year). These trends remained after adjusting for potential confounders. The probability of progressing to a CD4 cell count of <500 cells/ microL by 24 months from seroconversion increased from 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63-0.69) for individuals who seroconverted before 1991 to 0.80 (95% CI, 0.75-0.84) for those who seroconverted during 1999-2002. These data suggest that, in Europe, there has been a trend of decrease in the early CD4 cell count and of increase in the early HIV load. Additional research will be necessary to determine whether similar trends exist in other geographical areas.

On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.

Effect of long interval between hyperthermochemoradiation therapy and surgery for rectal cancer on apoptosis, proliferation and tumor response.

PubMed

Kato, Toshihide; Fujii, Takaaki; Ide, Munenori; Takada, Takahiro; Sutoh, Toshinaga; Morita, Hiroki; Yajima, Reina; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Tsutsumi, Soichi; Asao, Takayuki; Oyama, Tetsunari; Kuwano, Hiroyuki

2014-06-01

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is commonly used to improve the local control and resectability of locally advanced rectal cancer, with surgery performed after an interval of a number of weeks. We have been conducting a clinical trial of preoperative chemoradiotherapy in combination with regional hyperthermia (hyperthermo-chemoradiation therapy; HCRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer. In the current study we assessed the effect of a longer (>10 weeks) interval after neoadjuvant HCRT on pathological response, oncological outcome and especially on apoptosis, proliferation and p53 expression in patients with rectal cancer. Forty-eight patients with proven rectal adenocarcinoma who underwent HCRT followed by surgery were identified for inclusion in this study. Patients were divided into two groups according to the interval between HCRT and surgery, ≤ 10 weeks (short-interval group) and >10 weeks (long-interval group). Patients in the long-interval group had a significantly higher rate of pathological complete response (pCR) (43.5% vs. 16.0%) than patients of the short-interval group. Patients of the long-interval group had a significantly higher rate of down-staging of T-stage (78.3% vs. 36.0%) and relatively higher rate of that of N-stage (52.2% vs. 36.0%) than patients of the short-interval group. Furthermore, apoptosis in the long-interval group was relatively higher compared to that of the short-interval group, without a significant difference in the Ki-67 proliferative index and expression of p53 in the primary tumor. In conclusion, we demonstrated that a longer interval after HCRT (>10 weeks) seemed to result in a better chance of a pCR, a result confirmed by the trends in tumor response markers, including apoptosis, proliferation and p53 expression. Copyright© 2014 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Comparison of two regression-based approaches for determining nutrient and sediment fluxes and trends in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyer, Douglas; Hirsch, Robert M.; Hyer, Kenneth

2012-01-01

Nutrient and sediment fluxes and changes in fluxes over time are key indicators that water resource managers can use to assess the progress being made in improving the structure and function of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey collects annual nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment flux data and computes trends that describe the extent to which water-quality conditions are changing within the major Chesapeake Bay tributaries. Two regression-based approaches were compared for estimating annual nutrient and sediment fluxes and for characterizing how these annual fluxes are changing over time. The two regression models compared are the traditionally used ESTIMATOR and the newly developed Weighted Regression on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS). The model comparison focused on answering three questions: (1) What are the differences between the functional form and construction of each model? (2) Which model produces estimates of flux with the greatest accuracy and least amount of bias? (3) How different would the historical estimates of annual flux be if WRTDS had been used instead of ESTIMATOR? One additional point of comparison between the two models is how each model determines trends in annual flux once the year-to-year variations in discharge have been determined. All comparisons were made using total nitrogen, nitrate, total phosphorus, orthophosphorus, and suspended-sediment concentration data collected at the nine U.S. Geological Survey River Input Monitoring stations located on the Susquehanna, Potomac, James, Rappahannock, Appomattox, Pamunkey, Mattaponi, Patuxent, and Choptank Rivers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Two model characteristics that uniquely distinguish ESTIMATOR and WRTDS are the fundamental model form and the determination of model coefficients. ESTIMATOR and WRTDS both predict water-quality constituent concentration by developing a linear relation between the natural logarithm of observed constituent concentration and three explanatory variables—the natural log of discharge, time, and season. ESTIMATOR uses two additional explanatory variables—the square of the log of discharge and time-squared. Both models determine coefficients for variables for a series of estimation windows. ESTIMATOR establishes variable coefficients for a series of 9-year moving windows; all observed constituent concentration data within the 9-year window are used to establish each coefficient. Conversely, WRTDS establishes variable coefficients for each combination of discharge and time using only observed concentration data that are similar in time, season, and discharge to the day being estimated. As a result of these distinguishing characteristics, ESTIMATOR reproduces concentration-discharge relations that are closely approximated by a quadratic or linear function with respect to both the log of discharge and time. Conversely, the linear model form of WRTDS coupled with extensive model windowing for each combination of discharge and time allows WRTDS to reproduce observed concentration-discharge relations that are more sinuous in form. Another distinction between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS is the reporting of uncertainty associated with the model estimates of flux and trend. ESTIMATOR quantifies the standard error of prediction associated with the determination of flux and trends. The standard error of prediction enables the determination of the 95-percent confidence intervals for flux and trend as well as the ability to test whether the reported trend is significantly different from zero (where zero equals no trend). Conversely, WRTDS is unable to propagate error through the many (over 5,000) models for unique combinations of flow and time to determine a total standard error. As a result, WRTDS flux estimates are not reported with confidence intervals and a level of significance is not determined for flow-normalized fluxes. The differences between ESTIMATOR and WRTDS, with regard to model form and determination of model coefficients, have an influence on the determination of nutrient and sediment fluxes and associated changes in flux over time as a result of management activities. The comparison between the model estimates of flux and trend was made for combinations of five water-quality constituents at nine River Input Monitoring stations. The major findings with regard to nutrient and sediment fluxes are as follows: (1)WRTDS produced estimates of flux for all combinations that were more accurate, based on reduction in root mean squared error, than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (2) for 67 percent of the combinations, WRTDS and ESTIMATOR both produced estimates of flux that were minimally biased compared to observed fluxes(flux bias = tendency to over or underpredict flux observations); however, for 33 percent of the combinations, WRTDS produced estimates of flux that were considerably less biased (by at least 10 percent) than flux estimates from ESTIMATOR; (3) the average percent difference in annual fluxes generated by ESTIMATOR and WRTDS was less than 10 percent at 80 percent of the combinations; and (4) the greatest differences related to flux bias and annual fluxes all occurred for combinations where the pattern in observed concentration-discharge relation was sinuous (two points of inflection) rather than linear or quadratic (zero or one point of inflection). The major findings with regard to trends are as follows: (1) both models produce water-quality trends that have factored in the year-to-year variations in flow; (2) trends in water-quality condition are represented by ESTIMATOR as a trend in flow-adjusted concentration and by WRTDS as a flow normalized flux; (3) for 67 percent of the combinations with trend estimates, the WRTDS trends in flow-normalized flux are in the same direction and magnitude to the ESTIMATOR trends in flow-adjusted concentration, and at the remaining 33 percent the differences in trend magnitude and direction are related to fundamental differences between concentration and flux; and (4) the majority (85 percent) of the total nitrogen, nitrate, and orthophosphorus combinations exhibited long-term (1985 to 2010) trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate improvement or reduction in associated flux and the majority (83 percent) of the total phosphorus (from 1985 to 2010) and suspended sediment (from 2001 to 2010) combinations exhibited trends in WRTDS flow-normalized flux that indicate degradation or increases in the flux delivered.

Relationship between displacement and gravity change of Uemachi faults and surrounding faults of Osaka basin, Southwest Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inoue, N.; Kitada, N.; Kusumoto, S.; Itoh, Y.; Takemura, K.

2011-12-01

The Osaka basin surrounded by the Rokko and Ikoma Ranges is one of the typical Quaternary sedimentary basins in Japan. The Osaka basin has been filled by the Pleistocene Osaka group and the later sediments. Several large cities and metropolitan areas, such as Osaka and Kobe are located in the Osaka basin. The basin is surrounded by E-W trending strike slip faults and N-S trending reverse faults. The N-S trending 42-km-long Uemachi faults traverse in the central part of the Osaka city. The Uemachi faults have been investigated for countermeasures against earthquake disaster. It is important to reveal the detailed fault parameters, such as length, dip and recurrence interval, so on for strong ground motion simulation and disaster prevention. For strong ground motion simulation, the fault model of the Uemachi faults consist of the two parts, the north and south parts, because of the no basement displacement in the central part of the faults. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology started the project to survey of the Uemachi faults. The Disaster Prevention Institute of Kyoto University is carried out various surveys from 2009 to 2012 for 3 years. The result of the last year revealed the higher fault activity of the branch fault than main faults in the central part (see poster of "Subsurface Flexure of Uemachi Fault, Japan" by Kitada et al., in this meeting). Kusumoto et al. (2001) reported that surrounding faults enable to form the similar basement relief without the Uemachi faults model based on a dislocation model. We performed various parameter studies for dislocation model and gravity changes based on simplified faults model, which were designed based on the distribution of the real faults. The model was consisted 7 faults including the Uemachi faults. The dislocation and gravity change were calculated based on the Okada et al. (1985) and Okubo et al. (1993) respectively. The results show the similar basement displacement pattern to the Kusumoto et al. (2001) and no characteristic gravity change pattern. The Quantitative estimation is further problem.

Boreal temperature variability inferred from maximum latewood density and tree-ring width data, Wrangell Mountain region, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davi, Nicole K.; Jacoby, Gordon C.; Wiles, Gregory C.

2003-11-01

Variations in both width and density of annual rings from a network of tree chronologies were used to develop high-resolution proxies to extend the climate record in the Wrangell Mountain region of Alaska. We developed a warm-season (July-September) temperature reconstruction that spans A.D. 1593-1992 based on the first eigenvector from principal component analysis of six maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies. The climate/tree-growth model accounts for 51% of the temperature variance from 1958 to 1992 and shows cold in the late 1600s-early 1700s followed by a warmer period, cooling in the late 1700s-early 1800s, and warming in the 20th century. The 20th century is the warmest of the past four centuries. Several severely cold warm-seasons coincide with major volcanic eruptions. The first eigenvector from a ring-width (RW) network, based on nine chronologies from the Wrangell Mountain region (A.D. 1550-1970), is correlated positively with both reconstructed and recorded Northern Hemisphere temperatures. RW shows a temporal history similar to that of MXD by increased growth (warmer) and decreased growth (cooler) intervals and trends. After around 1970 the RW series show a decrease in growth, while station data show continued warming, which may be related to increasing moisture stress or other factors. Both the temperature history based on MXD and the growth trends from the RW series are consistent with well-dated glacier fluctuations in the Wrangell Mountains and some of the temperature variations also correspond to variations in solar activity.

Impact of Sleep Telemedicine Protocol in Management of Sleep Apnea: A 5-Year VA Experience.

PubMed

Baig, Mirza M; Antonescu-Turcu, Andrea; Ratarasarn, Kavita

2016-05-01

There is growing evidence that demonstrates an important role for telemedicine technologies in enhancing healthcare delivery. A comprehensive sleep telemedicine protocol was implemented at the Veterans Administration Medical Center (VAMC), Milwaukee, WI, in 2008 in an effort to improve access to sleep specialty care. The telemedicine protocol relied heavily on sleep specialist interventions based on chart review (electronic consult [e-consult]). This was done in response to long wait time for sleep clinic visits as well as delayed sleep study appointments. Since 2008 all consults are screened by sleep service to determine the next step in intervention. Based on chart review, the following steps are undertaken: (1) eligibility for portable versus in-lab sleep study is determined, and a sleep study order is placed accordingly, (2) positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy is prescribed for confirmed sleep apnea, and (3) need for in-person evaluation in the sleep clinic is determined, and the visit is scheduled. This study summarizes the 5-year trend in various aspects of access to sleep care after implementation of sleep telemedicine protocol at the Milwaukee VAMC. This is a retrospective system efficiency study. The electronic medical record was interrogated 5 years after starting the sleep telemedicine protocol to study annual trends in the following outcomes: (1) interval between sleep consult and prescription of PAP equipment, (2) total sleep consults, and (3) sleep clinic wait time. Two part-time sleep physicians provided sleep-related care at the Milwaukee VAMC between 2008 and 2012. During this period, the interval between sleep consult and PAP prescription decreased from ≥60 days to ≤7 days. This occurred in spite of an increase in total sleep consults and sleep studies. There was also a significant increase in data downloads, indicating overall improved follow-up. There was no change in clinic wait time of ≥60 days. Implementation of a sleep telemedicine protocol at the Milwaukee VAMC was associated with increased efficiency of sleep services. Timeliness of sleep management interventions for sleep apnea improved in spite of the increased volume of service.

Trends of Second Primary Malignancy in Patients with Thyroid Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Israel.

PubMed

Izkhakov, Elena; Barchana, Micha; Liphshitz, Irena; Silverman, Barbara G; Stern, Naftali; Keinan-Boker, Lital

2017-06-01

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine malignancy. TC patients have a good prognosis and a low disease-related mortality rate. Since such patients are often young, they may be at a higher risk for a second primary malignancy (SPM). This study sought to determine the incidence, risk, and types of SPM between 1980 and 2011, and to assess SPM trends over time among Israeli TC patients. Data were derived from the Israel National Cancer Registry. Primary TC patients diagnosed during 1980-2009 were followed up for SPM incidence until December 31, 2011. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of observed to expected SPM (based on the general population rates) were calculated using Poisson regression. Analyses were stratified by time period of initial TC diagnosis (1980-1995 and 1996-2009). A total of 11,538 TC patients were identified. After exclusion of 107 duplicate cases, records of 1032 patients with SPM were analyzed (an SPM incidence of 8.9%). SIRs for all-site SPMs were 1.23 [confidence interval 1.08-1.35] for males and 1.19 [confidence interval 1.10-1.27] for females. SIRs for tumors of the urinary system and prostate were significantly elevated in males, as were SIRs for tumors of the brain, urinary system, breast, and lung in females. Variables associated with increased risk of developing SPMs included a younger age at TC diagnosis, a shorter latency period, being born in Asia/Africa for both sexes, and being born in Israel for females. Compared with the general population, a subanalysis by TC diagnosis during 1980-1995 and 1996-2009 disclosed a higher SPM incidence for the latter time period in males and for both time periods, with a slightly higher SIR for the latter time period in females. The overall risk of SPM in Israeli TC patients was significantly greater for both sexes compared with the general population, thus identifying TC patients as a high-risk group and calling for caretakers to apply specific follow-up guidelines.

Risk of second primary cancers after testicular cancer in East and West Germany: A focus on contralateral testicular cancers

PubMed Central

Rusner, Carsten; Streller, Brigitte; Stegmaier, Christa; Trocchi, Pietro; Kuss, Oliver; McGlynn, Katherine A; Trabert, Britton; Stang, Andreas

2014-01-01

Testicular cancer survival rates improved dramatically after cisplatin-based therapy was introduced in the 1970s. However, chemotherapy and radiation therapy are potentially carcinogenic. The purpose of this study was to estimate the risk of developing second primary cancers including the risk associated with primary histologic type (seminoma and non-seminoma) among testicular cancer survivors in Germany. We identified 16 990 and 1401 cases of testicular cancer in population-based cancer registries of East Germany (1961–1989 and 1996–2008) and Saarland (a federal state in West Germany; 1970–2008), respectively. We estimated the risk of a second primary cancer using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). To determine trends, we plotted model-based estimated annual SIRs. In East Germany, a total of 301 second primary cancers of any location were observed between 1961 and 1989 (SIR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7–2.1), and 159 cancers (any location) were observed between 1996 and 2008 (SIR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4–2.0). The SIRs for contralateral testicular cancer were increased in the registries with a range from 6.0 in Saarland to 13.9 in East Germany. The SIR for seminoma, in particular, was higher in East Germany compared to the other registries. We observed constant trends in the model-based SIRs for contralateral testicular cancers. The majority of reported SIRs of other cancer sites including histology-specific risks showed low precisions of estimated effects, likely due to small sample sizes. Testicular cancer patients are at increased risk especially for cancers of the contralateral testis and should receive intensive follow-ups. PMID:24407180

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis of California electricity spot price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Qingju

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop a new method called asymmetric multiscale detrended fluctuation analysis, which is an extension of asymmetric detrended fluctuation analysis (A-DFA) and can assess the asymmetry correlation properties of series with a variable scale range. We investigate the asymmetric correlations in California 1999-2000 power market after filtering some periodic trends by empirical mode decomposition (EMD). Our findings show the coexistence of symmetric and asymmetric correlations in the price series of 1999 and strong asymmetric correlations in 2000. What is more, we detect subtle correlation properties of the upward and downward price series for most larger scale intervals in 2000. Meanwhile, the fluctuations of Δα(s) (asymmetry) and | Δα(s) | (absolute asymmetry) are more significant in 2000 than that in 1999 for larger scale intervals, and they have similar characteristics for smaller scale intervals. We conclude that the strong asymmetry property and different correlation properties of upward and downward price series for larger scale intervals in 2000 have important implications on the collapse of California power market, and our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms of power price.

Interval MULTIMOORA method with target values of attributes based on interval distance and preference degree: biomaterials selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafezalkotob, Arian; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2017-06-01

A target-based MADM method covers beneficial and non-beneficial attributes besides target values for some attributes. Such techniques are considered as the comprehensive forms of MADM approaches. Target-based MADM methods can also be used in traditional decision-making problems in which beneficial and non-beneficial attributes only exist. In many practical selection problems, some attributes have given target values. The values of decision matrix and target-based attributes can be provided as intervals in some of such problems. Some target-based decision-making methods have recently been developed; however, a research gap exists in the area of MADM techniques with target-based attributes under uncertainty of information. We extend the MULTIMOORA method for solving practical material selection problems in which material properties and their target values are given as interval numbers. We employ various concepts of interval computations to reduce degeneration of uncertain data. In this regard, we use interval arithmetic and introduce innovative formula for interval distance of interval numbers to create interval target-based normalization technique. Furthermore, we use a pairwise preference matrix based on the concept of degree of preference of interval numbers to calculate the maximum, minimum, and ranking of these numbers. Two decision-making problems regarding biomaterials selection of hip and knee prostheses are discussed. Preference degree-based ranking lists for subordinate parts of the extended MULTIMOORA method are generated by calculating the relative degrees of preference for the arranged assessment values of the biomaterials. The resultant rankings for the problem are compared with the outcomes of other target-based models in the literature.

GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran

PubMed Central

Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

2015-01-01

Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor’s Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the car accidents, which were in their nature preventable, the key players in road safety including governments, car manufacturers, and road developers were recommended to use GIS based accident data for a more efficient planning and budgeting towards the intercity car accidents reduction. PMID:28255402

GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran.

PubMed

Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

2015-01-01

Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor's Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the car accidents, which were in their nature preventable, the key players in road safety including governments, car manufacturers, and road developers were recommended to use GIS based accident data for a more efficient planning and budgeting towards the intercity car accidents reduction.

Trends of Various Techniques of Tubectomy: A Five Year Study in a Tertiary Institute

PubMed Central

Prasanna, Naveen; Channabasappa, Ramalingappa Antartani

2016-01-01

Introduction Female sterilization is one of the best and effective methods of contraception for women who have completed their family. Tubectomy during caesarean operation and minilaparotomy are popular methods in developing countries whereas laparoscopic sterilization and hysteroscopic tubal occlusion are the preferred methods in developed countries. Aim To know the trends, incidence and immediate complications of methods of female sterilizations performed at our institute. Materials and Methods This is a retrospective analytical study conducted at our tertiary care centre from January 2010 to December 2014 in Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka. The case files of all the patients who underwent sterilization were taken from the medical records section and reviewed in detail. The cases were grouped as caesarean tubectomy, minilaparotomy and laparoscopic sterilization, based on the abdominal entry. For minilaparotomy and during caesarean tubectomy, modified pomeroy’s technique was used. For laparoscopic sterilization, falope rings were used. Data was analysed by Karl Pearson’s correlation co-efficient method and Chi-Square test. The p-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results Out of 5442 cases of female sterilization, 2872 underwent caesarean tubectomy, remaining half underwent minilaparotomy (1306) and laparoscopic sterilization (1264). Sterilizations were significantly more during puerperal period (caesarean tubectomy + post abortal + postpartum) compared to interval period. There was an increasing trend in caesarean tubectomy and laparoscopic sterilization. There were 11 procedure related complications in the laparoscopic sterilization, one in caesarean tubectomy and none in minilaparotomy. Two deaths were reported in minilaparotomy, one in laparoscopic sterilization and four in the caesarean tubectomy, which were due to septicaemia. Conclusion An increasing trend in caesarean tubectomy and laparoscopic sterilization is seen in this study. Female sterilization should be individualized based on the timing, place and surgeons experience. Sepsis is a major cause of death and asepsis could be compromised when female sterilization is done in large numbers in camps. Hence target related approach towards female sterilization should be avoided. Laparoscopic sterilization has more procedure related complications, which can be better handled in tertiary care centres. PMID:26894125

Physical activity and risk of myocardial infarction after the fourth decade of life.

PubMed

Lopes, Carla; Santos, Ana Cristina; Azevedo, Ana; Maciel, Maria Júlia; Barros, Henrique

2005-10-01

Scientific evidence shows that physically active people are protected from developing acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, the effect of the intensity, duration and type of activity remains unclear. To evaluate the relation between physical activity and MI, according to different intensity levels and types, we conducted a community-based case-control study, based on the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease (EPIcardis) study. We evaluated 381 consecutive cases of first MI (297 males; 84 females) and 726 community controls (310 males; 416 females), older than 39 years, selected by random digit dialing (70% participation rate among the controls). Data were collected using a structured questionnaire. For evaluation of physical activity, the questionnaire assessed all professional and leisure-time activities, specifying the type of exercise and the time spent in each activity. Activities were grouped according to intensity using energy expenditure at rest as the baseline (1.0 MET): very light (1.5 MET), light (2.5 MET), moderate (5.0 MET) and strenuous (7.0 MET). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression and separate models for each sex. Among men, after adjusting for age, education, family history of MI, energy intake and smoking, the OR (95% CI) were 0.51 (0.29-0.91), 0.36 (0.19-0.68), 0.53 (0.30-0.93), and 0.68 (0.39-1.20), for increasing quintiles of activity (p for trend = 0.199). Among women, after adjusting for the same variables plus parity and menopausal status, the OR (95% CI) were 0.51 (0.25-1.03), 0.37 (0.17-0.83), and 0.34 (0.14-0.83), for increasing quartiles of activity (p for trend = 0.006). We found a protective effect of leisure-time physical activity in men (p for trend < 0.001) and in women (p for trend = 0.038). In men, the U-shaped effect described for total physical activity was also found for occupational activities. The present study supports an independent protective effect of leisure-time physical activity, but not of occupational activities, for risk of myocardial infarction.

40 CFR 53.32 - Test procedures for methods for SO2, CO, O3, and NO2.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... shall have a chart width of at least 25 centimeters, a response time of 1 second or less, a deadband of... appropriate time intervals such that trend plots similar to a strip chart recording may be constructed with a... facilitate visual evaluation of data submitted. (3) Allow adequate warmup or stabilization time as indicated...

Historical Evolution of Instructional Technology in Teacher Education Programs: A Ten-Year Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betrus, Anthony

2012-01-01

The content and emphasis of the introductory technology courses for undergraduate preservice teachers has historically been examined, with the earliest study conducted by Stracke in 1932. In an attempt to identify trends in the course DeKieffer conducted a series of studies over ten year intervals, in 1947, 1957, 1967, and 1977. In 2000 the first…

Trends in snag populations in Northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, 1997-2012

Treesearch

J. L. Ganey; S. C. Vojta

2014-01-01

We monitored snag populations in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, northern Arizona, at 5-yr intervals from 1997-2012. Snag density increased from 1997-2007 in both forest types, with accelerated change due to drought-related tree mortality during the period 2002-2007. Snag density declined non-significantly from 2007-2012,...

Per capita increase in hospital presentations and admissions among children since the 1990s.

PubMed

Hardy, Andrew; Fuller, David G; Forrester, Mike; Anderson, Kym P; Cooper, Chris; Jenner, Bernard; Marshall, Isaac; Mccloskey, Kate; Sanderson, Christine; Standish, Jane; Vuillermin, Peter

2016-10-01

Data regarding temporal trends in per capita paediatric hospital presentations and admissions are required to inform health system and workforce planning. Emergency Department (ED) presentations and admissions to the University Hospital Geelong among patients aged 0 to 16 years over a 12-month period (2012-2013) were determined by review of hospital records and then compared with similar data collected during 1996/1997. 1 During each period, the Geelong region was serviced by a single ED, enabling us to estimate per capita presentation and admission rates. Since 1996/1997, per capita paediatric presentations to the ED increased from 643 to 1837 per 10 000 (186%; 95% confidence interval 181% to 191%). Moreover, the proportion of paediatric ED presentations resulting in hospital admission increased from 12.3% to 18.3% (49%; 95% confidence interval 39% to 59%). There has been a substantial absolute and per capita increase in paediatric ED presentations and hospital admissions since the 1990s. These trends place an increasing burden on the public hospital system, and strategies are required to promote paediatric acute care in the ambulatory setting. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Horizontal technology helps spark Louisiana`s Austin chalk trend

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koen, A.D.

1996-04-29

A handful of companies paced by some of the most active operators in the US are pressing the limits of horizontal technology to ramp up Cretaceous Austin chalk exploration and development (E and D) across Louisiana. Companies find applications in Louisiana for lessons learned drilling horizontal wells to produce chalk intervals in Texas in Giddings, Pearsall, and Brookeland fields. Continuing advances in horizontal well technology are helping operators deal with deeper, hotter reservoirs in more complex geological settings that typify the chalk in Louisiana. Better horizontal drilling, completion, formation evaluation, and stimulation techniques have enabled operators to produce oil andmore » gas from formations previously thought to be uneconomical. Most of the improved capabilities stem from better horizontal tools. Horizontal drilling breakthroughs include dual powered mud motors and retrievable whipstocks, key links in the ability to drill wells with more than one horizontal lateral. Better geosteering tools have enabled operators to maintain horizontal wellbores in desired intervals by signaling bit positions downhole while drilling. This paper reviews the technology and provides a historical perspective on the various drilling programs which have been completed in this trend. It also makes predictions on future drilling successes.« less

On the Relationship Between Solar Wind Speed, Geomagnetic Activity, and the Solar Cycle Using Annual Values

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.; Hathaway, David H.

2008-01-01

The aa index can be decomposed into two separate components: the leading sporadic component due to solar activity as measured by sunspot number and the residual or recurrent component due to interplanetary disturbances, such as coronal holes. For the interval 1964-2006, a highly statistically important correlation (r = 0.749) is found between annual averages of the aa index and the solar wind speed (especially between the residual component of aa and the solar wind speed, r = 0.865). Because cyclic averages of aa (and the residual component) have trended upward during cycles 11-23, cyclic averages of solar wind speed are inferred to have also trended upward.

Proper Antibiotic Use in a Home-Based Primary Care Population Treated for Urinary Tract Infections.

PubMed

Gee, Megan E; Ford, James; Conway, Erin L; Ott, Michael C; Sellick, John A; Mergenhagen, Kari A

2018-02-01

To evaluate the trends associated with diagnosis and treatment of urinary tract infections (UTI) in a home-based primary care population of Veterans Health System patients from 2006 to 2015. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Healthcare System. Home-based primary care patients treated for UTI from 2006 to 2015. None. Appropriate therapy was determined based on the McGeer criteria. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine factors leading to appropriate UTI treatment. Of 366 available patients, 68 (18.6%) were tested for a UTI. Appropriate therapy occurred in 26% of patients. Allergy to any antibiotic increased the odds of appropriate treatment (odds ratio [OR] = 5.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-23.2). Flank pain and increased urinary frequency also increased the likelihood of being treated appropriately (OR = 25.9, 95% CI 2.9-584.0 and OR = 4.49, 95% CI 0.99-21.2, respectively). Antibiotics were overused for treating UTIs in the homebound population. Patients with flank pain, increased urinary frequency, and antibiotic allergy were more likely to receive appropriate treatment. Pharmacists, therefore, have a viable opportunity to increase appropriate antibiotic prescribing in the home-based primary care population.

Reservoir and Source Rock Identification Based on Geologycal, Geophysics and Petrophysics Analysis Study Case: South Sumatra Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggit Maulana, Hiska; Haris, Abdul

2018-05-01

Reservoir and source rock Identification has been performed to deliniate the reservoir distribution of Talangakar Formation South Sumatra Basin. This study is based on integrated geophysical, geological and petrophysical data. The aims of study to determine the characteristics of the reservoir and source rock, to differentiate reservoir and source rock in same Talangakar formation, to find out the distribution of net pay reservoir and source rock layers. The method of geophysical included seismic data interpretation using time and depth structures map, post-stack inversion, interval velocity, geological interpretations included the analysis of structures and faults, and petrophysical processing is interpret data log wells that penetrating Talangakar formation containing hydrocarbons (oil and gas). Based on seismic interpretation perform subsurface mapping on Layer A and Layer I to determine the development of structures in the Regional Research. Based on the geological interpretation, trapping in the form of regional research is anticline structure on southwest-northeast trending and bounded by normal faults on the southwest-southeast regional research structure. Based on petrophysical analysis, the main reservoir in the field of research, is a layer 1,375 m of depth and a thickness 2 to 8.3 meters.

Trends in utilization of FDA expedited drug development and approval programs, 1987-2014: cohort study.

PubMed

Kesselheim, Aaron S; Wang, Bo; Franklin, Jessica M; Darrow, Jonathan J

2015-09-23

To evaluate the use of special expedited development and review pathways at the US Food and Drug Administration over the past two decades. Cohort study. FDA approved novel therapeutics between 1987 and 2014. Publicly available sources provided each drug's year of approval, their innovativeness (first in class versus not first in class), World Health Organization Anatomic Therapeutic Classification, and which (if any) of the FDA's four primary expedited development and review programs or designations were associated with each drug: orphan drug, fast track, accelerated approval, and priority review. Logistic regression models evaluated trends in the proportion of drugs associated with each of the four expedited development and review programs. To evaluate the number of programs associated with each approved drug over time, Poisson models were employed, with the number of programs as the dependent variable and a linear term for year of approval. The difference in trends was compared between drugs that were first in class and those that were not. The FDA approved 774 drugs during the study period, with one third representing first in class agents. Priority review (43%) was the most prevalent of the four programs, with accelerated approval (9%) the least common. There was a significant increase of 2.6% per year in the number of expedited review and approval programs granted to each newly approved agent (incidence rate ratio 1.026, 95% confidence interval 1.017 to 1.035, P<0.001), and a 2.4% increase in the proportion of drugs associated with at least one such program (odds ratio 1.024, 95% confidence interval 1.006 to 1.043, P=0.009). Driving this trend was an increase in the proportion of approved, non-first in class drugs associated with at least one program for drugs (P=0.03 for interaction). In the past two decades, drugs newly approved by the FDA have been associated with an increasing number of expedited development or review programs. Though expedited programs should be strictly limited to drugs providing noticeable clinical advances, this trend is being driven by drugs that are not first in class and thus potentially less innovative. © Kesselheim et al 2015.

Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

PubMed Central

Turk, Teja; Bachmann, Nadine; Kadelka, Claus; Böni, Jürg; Yerly, Sabine; Aubert, Vincent; Klimkait, Thomas; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Calmy, Alexandra; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Hoffmann, Matthias; Aubert, V; Battegay, M; Bernasconi, E; Böni, J; Braun, DL; Bucher, HC; Calmy, A; Cavassini, M; Ciuffi, A; Dollenmaier, G; Egger, M; Elzi, L; Fehr, J; Fellay, J; Furrer, H; Fux, CA; Günthard, HF; Haerry, D; Hasse, B; Hirsch, HH; Hoffmann, M; Hösli, I; Kahlert, C; Kaiser, L; Keiser, O; Klimkait, T; Kouyos, RD; Kovari, H; Ledergerber, B; Martinetti, G; Martinez de Tejada, B; Marzolini, C; Metzner, KJ; Müller, N; Nicca, D; Pantaleo, G; Paioni, P; Rauch, A; Rudin, C; Scherrer, AU; Schmid, P; Speck, R; Stöckle, M; Tarr, P; Trkola, A; Vernazza, P; Wandeler, G; Weber, R; Yerly, S

2017-01-01

Assessing the danger of transition of HIV transmission from a concentrated to a generalized epidemic is of major importance for public health. In this study, we develop a phylogeny-based statistical approach to address this question. As a case study, we use this to investigate the trends and determinants of HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals. We extract the corresponding transmission clusters from a phylogenetic tree. To capture the incomplete sampling, the delayed introduction of imported infections to Switzerland, and potential factors associated with basic reproductive number R0, we extend the branching process model to infer transmission parameters. Overall, the R0 is estimated to be 0.44 (95%-confidence interval 0.42—0.46) and it is decreasing by 11% per 10 years (4%—17%). Our findings indicate rather diminishing HIV transmission among Swiss heterosexuals far below the epidemic threshold. Generally, our approach allows to assess the danger of self-sustained epidemics from any viral sequence data. PMID:28895527

Ten-year trends in coronary calcification in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Bild, Diane E; McClelland, Robyn; Kaufman, Joel D; Blumenthal, Roger; Burke, Gregory L; Carr, J Jeffrey; Post, Wendy S; Register, Thomas C; Shea, Steven; Szklo, Moyses

2014-01-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known. To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT) and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55-84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000-02, 50.4% in 2003-04, 60.0% is 2005-06, 57.4% in 2007-08, and 61.3% in 2010-12 (p for trend <0.001). The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55-64 [prevalence ratio for 2010-12 vs. 2000-02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39); p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence. There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups.

Temporal trends in nitrate and selected pesticides in Mid-Atlantic ground water.

PubMed

Debrewer, Linda M; Ator, Scott W; Denver, Judith M

2008-01-01

Evaluating long-term temporal trends in regional ground-water quality is complicated by variable hydrogeologic conditions and typically slow flow, and such trends have rarely been directly measured. Ground-water samples were collected over near-decadal and annual intervals from unconfined aquifers in agricultural areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, including fractured carbonate rocks in the Great Valley, Potomac River Basin, and unconsolidated sediments on the Delmarva Peninsula. Concentrations of nitrate and selected pesticides and degradates were compared among sampling events and to apparent recharge dates. Observed temporal trends are related to changes in land use and chemical applications, and to hydrogeology and climate. Insignificant differences in nitrate concentrations in the Great Valley between 1993 and 2002 are consistent with relatively steady fertilizer application during respective recharge periods and are likely related to drought conditions in the later sampling period. Detecting trends in Great Valley ground water is complicated by long open boreholes characteristic of wells sampled in this setting which facilitate significant ground-water mixing. Decreasing atrazine and prometon concentrations, however, reflect reported changes in usage. On the Delmarva Peninsula between 1988 and 2001, median nitrate concentrations increased 2 mg per liter in aerobic ground water, reflecting increasing fertilizer applications. Correlations between selected pesticide compounds and apparent recharge date are similarly related to changing land use and chemical application. Observed trends in the two settings demonstrate the importance of considering hydrogeology and recharge date along with changing land and chemical uses when interpreting trends in regional ground-water quality.

Hydrological influences on the water quality trends in Tamiraparani Basin, South India.

PubMed

Ravichandran, S

2003-09-01

Water quality variables--Turbidity, pH, Electrical Conductivity (EC), Chlorides and Total Hardness (TH) were monitored at a downstream location in the Tamiraparani River during 1978-1992. The observations were made at weekly intervals in a water treatment and supply plant using standard methods. Graphical and statistical analyses were used for data exploration, trend detection and assessment. Box-Whisker plots of annual and seasonal changes in variables indicated apparent trends being present in the data and their response to the seasonal influence of the monsoon rainfall. Further, the examination of the median values of the variables indicated that changes in the direction of trend occurred during 1985-1986, especially in pH, EC and TH. The statistical analyses were done using non-parametric methods, the ANCOVA on rank transformed data and the Seasonal Man-Kendall test. The presence of monotonic trend in all the water quality variables was confirmed, however, with independent direction of change. The trend line was fitted by the method of least squares. The estimated values indicated significant increases in EC (28 microS cm(-1)) while significant decreases were observed in turbidity (90 NTU), pH (0.78), and total hardness (23 ppm) in a span of 15 years. The changes induced in river flow by the addition of a stabilizing reservoir, the influence of seasonal and spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall across the river basin and the increased agriculture appear causative factors for the water quality trends seen in the Tamiraparani River system.

Assessment of atrial electromechanical interval using echocardiography after catheter ablation in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaodong; Chen, Minglong; Wang, Yingying; Yang, Bing; Ju, Weizhu; Zhang, Fengxiang; Cao, Kejiang

2016-11-01

We sought to investigate variation of atrial electromechanical interval after catheter ablation procedure in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation using pulse Doppler (PW) and pulse tissue Doppler imaging (PW-TDI). A total of 25 consecutive in-patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, who restored sinus rhythm after ablation procedure, were recruited in our cardiac center. Echocardiography was performed on each patient at 2 hours, 1 day, 5 days, 1 month and 3 months after the ablation therapy, and atrial electromechanical delay was measured simultaneously by PW and PW-TDI. There was no significant difference between PW and TDI in measuring atrial electromechanical delay. However, at postoperative 2 hours, peak A detection rates were mathematically but nonsignificantly greater by PW-TDI than by PW. Second, there was a significant decreasing trend in atrial electromechanical interval from postoperative 2 hours to 3 months, but only postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval was significantly greater than atrial electromechanical interval at other time. Lastly, patients without postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval had a significantly longer duration of atrial fibrillation as compared to those with postoperative 2-hour atrial electromechanical interval, by the PW or by PW-TDI, respectively. In patients with persistent atrial fibrillation, atrial electromechanical interval may decrease significantly within the first 24 hours after ablation but remain consistent later, and was significantly related to patients' duration of atrial fibrillation. Atrial electromechanical interval, as a potential predicted factor, is recommended to be measured by either PW or TDI after 24 hours, when patients had recovered sinus rhythm by radiofrequency ablation. © 2016 by the Journal of Biomedical Research. All rights reserved.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in age verification among U.S. adolescents attempting to buy cigarettes at retail stores, 2000-2009.

PubMed

Filippidis, Filippos T; Agaku, Israel T; Connolly, Gregory N; Vardavas, Constantine I

2014-04-01

This study assessed trends in age verification prior to cigarette sales to U.S. middle and high school students, and refusal to sell cigarettes to students aged <18 years during 2000-2009. Data were obtained from the 2000-2009 National Youth Tobacco Survey. Trends during 2000-2009 were assessed using binary logistic regression (p<0.05). The proportion of all students, who reported being asked to show proof of age prior to a cigarette purchase in the past 30 days did not change significantly between 2000 (46.9%) and 2009 (44.9%) (p=0.529 for linear trend). No significant trend in the proportion of students aged < 18 years who were refused a sale when attempting to buy cigarettes was observed between 2000 (39.8%) and 2009 (36.7%) (p=0.283 for linear trend). Refusal of a cigarette sale was significantly higher among under-aged boys compared to girls (adjusted odds ratio=1.48; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-1.70). About half of U.S. middle and high school students who reported making a cigarette purchase were not asked for proof of age, and about three of five under-aged buyers successfully made a cigarette purchase in 2009. Intensified implementation and enforcement of policies requiring age verification among youths is warranted to reduce access and use of tobacco products. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

PubMed Central

Schroeder, Bernard K.; Lindsay, David J.; Faust, Deborah A.

2015-01-01

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as ‘Threatened’ by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996–2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend (‘year effects’), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey. PMID:26258803

Relaxation of the one child policy and trends in caesarean section rates and birth outcomes in China between 2012 and 2016: observational study of nearly seven million health facility births.

PubMed

Liang, Juan; Mu, Yi; Li, Xiaohong; Tang, Wen; Wang, Yanping; Liu, Zheng; Huang, Xiaona; Scherpbier, Robert W; Guo, Sufang; Li, Mingrong; Dai, Li; Deng, Kui; Deng, Changfei; Li, Qi; Kang, Leni; Zhu, Jun; Ronsmans, Carine

2018-03-05

To examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China. Observational study. China's National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS). 6 838 582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight ≥1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016. Obstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time. Caesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government's policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time. China is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China's success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China's experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Higher dietary intakes of choline and betaine are associated with a lower risk of primary liver cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Zhou, Rui-Fen; Chen, Xiao-Lin; Zhou, Zhong-Guo; Zhang, Yao-Jun; Lan, Qiu-Ye; Liao, Gong-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Ming; Zhu, Hui-Lian

2017-04-06

The dietary intake of methyl donors is favorably associated with many diseases, but the findings regarding primary liver cancer (PLC) risk are limited. This study investigated the association between the intake of choline, betaine and methionine and PLC risk in adults. This 1:1 matched case-control study enrolled 644 hospital-based PLC patients and 644 community-based controls who were matched by sex and age, in Guangzhou, China. An interviewer-administered questionnaire and a food-frequency questionnaire were used to collect general information and dietary intake information. Conditional logistic regression showed a significantly inverse association between total choline and betaine intakes and PLC risk. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PLC for the top (vs. bottom) tertile were 0.34 (0.24-0.49; P -trend  < 0.001) for total choline and 0.67 (0.48-0.93; P -trend  = 0.011) for betaine. No significant association was observed between the intake of methionine and PLC risk (P > 0.05). For individual choline compounds, higher consumptions of free choline, glycerophosphocholine, phosphocholine, phosphatidylcholine and sphingomyelin were associated with a lower PLC risk (all P-trend < 0.05). The studied associations were not significantly modified by the folate intake (P-interactions: 0.488-0.890). Our findings suggest that higher choline and betaine intakes may be associated with a lower risk of PLC.

Investigating the usefulness of a cluster-based trend analysis to detect visual field progression in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Aoki, Shuichiro; Murata, Hiroshi; Fujino, Yuri; Matsuura, Masato; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Hirasawa, Kazunori; Shoji, Nobuyuki; Asaoka, Ryo

2017-12-01

To investigate the usefulness of the Octopus (Haag-Streit) EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis in glaucoma. Ten visual fields (VFs) with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec), spanning 7.7 years on average were obtained from 728 eyes of 475 primary open angle glaucoma patients. Mean total deviation (mTD) trend analysis and EyeSuite's cluster trend analysis were performed on various series of VFs (from 1st to 10th: VF1-10 to 6th to 10th: VF6-10). The results of the cluster-based trend analysis, based on different lengths of VF series, were compared against mTD trend analysis. Cluster-based trend analysis and mTD trend analysis results were significantly associated in all clusters and with all lengths of VF series. Between 21.2% and 45.9% (depending on VF series length and location) of clusters were deemed to progress when the mTD trend analysis suggested no progression. On the other hand, 4.8% of eyes were observed to progress using the mTD trend analysis when cluster trend analysis suggested no progression in any two (or more) clusters. Whole field trend analysis can miss local VF progression. Cluster trend analysis appears as robust as mTD trend analysis and useful to assess both sectorial and whole field progression. Cluster-based trend analyses, in particular the definition of two or more progressing cluster, may help clinicians to detect glaucomatous progression in a timelier manner than using a whole field trend analysis, without significantly compromising specificity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Accommodation by Varying Strain Regimes along the Northern Luzon Arc (Coastal Range, Taiwan) - Insights from Focal Mechanism Strain Inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hara, D.; Lee, J.; Lewis, J. C.; Rau, R.

2013-12-01

Taiwan is the product of modern subduction polarity reversal coupled with arc-continent collision. The NW-moving Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducts beneath the Eurasian plate (EUR) to the northeast of Taiwan at the Ryukyu trench, while overriding EUR south of Taiwan at the Manila trench, bringing the Luzon volcanic arc into collision with the deforming sediments of the Eurasian passive margin. The obliquity between the N-S trending Luzon Arc (LA) and NE-SW trending passive margin is causing the southward, temporal propagation of collision since ~6 Ma. The collided forearc and clastic sediments accreted by the advancing arc created the Coastal Range (CR), whose western-most extent lies at the suture zone between the two plates, the NNE-SSW trending Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF). In order to understand the change in stress along the northern LA as it docks onto EUR, we inverted over 1900 relocated earthquake focal mechanism solutions within the on-land CR and offshore LA regions for spatial strain tensors. The focal mechanisms cover seismicity from 1991-2013, ranging in depths 0-112 km and magnitudes 2.22-6.92. For our analyses, we grouped the focal mechanisms based on 15' Latitudinal intervals along the study area and inverted the data for best-fit strain tensors using a micropolar continuum model of crustal deformation. Results suggest dominant compression in all regions with accommodation occurring through oblique reverse faults of varying dips. Trends of σ1 rotate clockwise (CW) from 100° in the south to 155° in the north. This CW rotation is also observed in the preferred nodal plane slip vector trends - from E-W orientation in the south to NW-SE in the north. The rotation of σ1 and slip vector trends creates varying degrees of obliquity with the direction normal (DN) to CR (112°). The trends in the southern part of the study area show obliquity counterclockwise (CCW) to DN; trends in the central part are near parallel to DN; and trends in the northern part show obliquity CW to DN. GPS vectors from 2008-2012 using an ITRF reference frame show similar changes in obliquity with GPS velocity trends oblique CCW and CW to DN in the southern and northern areas, respectively, and near parallel to DN in the central area. Our results suggest the accommodation of three varying strain regimes along the northern LA (CR) system - (1) strain partitioning within the Manila forearc basin due to the obliquity between N-S trending LA and NW trending convergence vector; (2) convergence-related strain in the central LVF and CR along NNE trending major thrust faults with a small oblique component due to the obliquity between DN and the convergence vector; and (3) strain partitioning along the Ryukyu trench and forearc basin due to the obliquity between northward subducting plate along the WNW- ESE trending Ryukyu trench and NW convergence vector. As a result, the different subducting characteristics of strain regimes correspond to the different stages of arc accretion/collision, from south to north: pre-collision, present collision, waning collision, and subduction.

Recent Trends in Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Brazil: Progress Toward Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5

PubMed Central

Matijasevich, Alicia; Requejo, Jennifer Harris; Giugliani, Elsa; Maranhão, Ana Goretti; Monteiro, Carlos A.; Barros, Aluísio J. D.; Bustreo, Flavia; Merialdi, Mario; Victora, Cesar G.

2010-01-01

We analyzed Brazil's efforts in reducing child mortality, improving maternal and child health, and reducing socioeconomic and regional inequalities from 1990 through 2007. We compiled and reanalyzed data from several sources, including vital statistics and population-based surveys. We also explored the roles of broad socioeconomic and demographic changes and the introduction of health sector and other reform measures in explaining the improvements observed. Our findings provide compelling evidence that proactive measures to reduce health disparities accompanied by socioeconomic progress can result in measurable improvements in the health of children and mothers in a relatively short interval. Our analysis of Brazil's successes and remaining challenges to reach and surpass Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 can provide important lessons for other low- and middle-income countries. PMID:20724669

Trends in Streamflow Characteristics of Selected Sites in the Elkhorn River, Salt Creek, and Lower Platte River Basins, Eastern Nebraska, 1928-2004, and Evaluation of Streamflows in Relation to Instream-Flow Criteria, 1953-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Godberson, Julie A.; Steele, Gregory V.

2009-01-01

The Nebraska Department of Natural Resources approved instream-flow appropriations on the Platte River to maintain fish communities, whooping crane roost habitat, and wet meadows used by several wild bird species. In the lower Platte River region, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission owns an appropriation filed to maintain streamflow for fish communities between the Platte River confluence with the Elkhorn River and the mouth of the Platte River. Because Elkhorn River flow is an integral part of the flow in the reach addressed by this appropriation, the Upper Elkhorn and Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources Districts are involved in overall management of anthropogenic effects on the availability of surface water for instream requirements. The Physical Habitat Simulation System (PHABSIM) and other estimation methodologies were used previously to determine instream requirements for Platte River biota, which led to the filing of five water appropriations applications with the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources in 1993 by the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission. One of these requested instream-flow appropriations of 3,700 cubic feet per second was for the reach from the Elkhorn River to the mouth of the Platte River. Four appropriations were granted with modifications in 1998, by the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources. Daily streamflow data for the periods of record were summarized for 17 streamflow-gaging stations in Nebraska to evaluate streamflow characteristics, including low-flow intervals for consecutive durations of 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, and 183 days. Temporal trends in selected streamflow statistics were not adjusted for variability in precipitation. Results indicated significant positive temporal trends in annual flow for the period of record at eight streamflow-gaging stations - Platte River near Duncan (06774000), Platte River at North Bend (06796000), Elkhorn River at Neligh (06798500), Logan Creek near Uehling (06799500), Maple Creek near Nickerson (06800000), Elkhorn River at Waterloo (06800500), Salt Creek at Greenwood (06803555), and Platte River at Louisville (06805500). In general, sites in the Elkhorn River Basin upstream from Norfolk showed fewer significant trends than did sites downstream from Norfolk and sites in the Platte River and Salt Creek basins, where trends in low flows also were positive. Historical Platte River streamflow records for the streamflow-gaging station at Louisville, Nebraska, were used to determine the number of days per water year (Sept. 30 to Oct. 1) when flows failed to satisfy the minimum criteria of the instream-flow appropriation prior to its filing in 1993. Before 1993, the median number of days the criteria were not satisfied was about 120 days per water year. During 1993 through 2004, daily mean flows at Louisville, Nebraska, have failed to satisfy the criteria for 638 days total (median value equals 21.5 days per year). Most of these low-flow intervals occurred in summer through early fall. For water years 1953 through 2004, of the discrete intervals when flow was less that the criteria levels, 61 percent were 3 days or greater in duration, and 38 percent were 7 days or greater in duration. The median duration of intervals of flow less than the criteria levels was 4 consecutive days during 1953 through 2004.

A case control study of nutritional factors and cervical dysplasia.

PubMed

Liu, T; Soong, S J; Wilson, N P; Craig, C B; Cole, P; Macaluso, M; Butterworth, C E

1993-01-01

The association of nutritional factors with cervical dysplasia was examined through a case-control study. Analysis was conducted in 257 cases and 133 controls confirmed both by cytological examination and colposcopic findings. A 24-h dietary recall questionnaire was used to assess nutritional intake. Various risk factors (including age at first intercourse, number of sexual partners, parity, cigarette smoking, oral contraceptive use, human papillomavirus type 16 infection, and age and race) were adjusted for their potential confounding effects. While analyses were also performed to adjust for total calories, results were not changed significantly. Among the nutrients examined, vitamin A intake showed a significantly increased risk at the lowest quartile compared to the highest quartile, with an odds ratio of 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.2-4.2). A significant trend of increasing risk was also observed with lower intake of vitamin A (P = 0.05). Riboflavin showed increased risk at the two lower quartiles of intake with a trend test P value of 0.04. Increased risk was also found for lower intakes of vitamin C compared to the highest intake level. For folate, increased risk was found in the second highest quartile compared with the highest quartile with an odds ratio of 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.8). The calcium:phosphorus ratio showed an increased risk at the lowest level (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-4.3). Insufficient intake of vitamin A, riboflavin, ascorbate, and folate is associated with an increased risk of cervical dysplasia.

Tornado Intensity Estimated from Damage Path Dimensions

PubMed Central

Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.; Elsner, Ian J.

2014-01-01

The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s−1 for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width. PMID:25229242

Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

PubMed

Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, Ian J

2014-01-01

The Newcastle/Moore and El Reno tornadoes of May 2013 are recent reminders of the destructive power of tornadoes. A direct estimate of a tornado's power is difficult and dangerous to get. An indirect estimate on a categorical scale is available from a post-storm survery of the damage. Wind speed bounds are attached to the scale, but the scale is not adequate for analyzing trends in tornado intensity separate from trends in tornado frequency. Here tornado intensity on a continuum is estimated from damage path length and width, which are measured on continuous scales and correlated to the EF rating. The wind speeds on the EF scale are treated as interval censored data and regressed onto the path dimensions and fatalities. The regression model indicates a 25% increase in expected intensity over a threshold intensity of 29 m s(-1) for a 100 km increase in path length and a 17% increase in expected intensity for a one km increase in path width. The model shows a 43% increase in the expected intensity when fatalities are observed controlling for path dimensions. The estimated wind speeds correlate at a level of .77 (.34, .93) [95% confidence interval] with a small sample of wind speeds estimated independently from a doppler radar calibration. The estimated wind speeds allow analyses to be done on the tornado database that are not possible with the categorical scale. The modeled intensities can be used in climatology and in environmental and engineering applications. Research is needed to understand the upward trends in path length and width.

Trends in coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram findings from 1977 to 2009 with 10-year mortality in Japanese elderly males - The Tanushimaru Study.

PubMed

Nakamura, Sachiko; Adachi, Hisashi; Enomoto, Mika; Fukami, Ako; Kumagai, Eita; Nohara, Yume; Kono, Shoko; Nakao, Erika; Sakaue, Akiko; Tsuru, Tomoko; Morikawa, Nagisa; Fukumoto, Yoshihiro

2017-10-01

An understanding of the trends in regard to coronary risk factors and electrocardiogram (ECG) findings has an important role in public health. We investigated the trends in coronary risk factors and main ECG findings in 1977, 1989, 1999, and 2009 in the Japanese cohort of the Seven Countries Study, in Tanushimaru, a typical farming town on Kyushu Island. A total of 1397 subjects (231 in 1977, 332 in 1989, 389 in 1999, and 445 in 2009) were enrolled in this study, and all of them were males aged over 65 years. In coronary risk factors, total cholesterol levels, diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, and uric acid significantly increased during these 3 decades. The prevalence of smokers markedly decreased from 56.7% in 1977 to 16.8% in 2009. ECG changes during 3 decades were wider QRS interval, increased prevalence of major abnormality, reduced heart rate, shortened PR interval and corrected QT, and decreased prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy. Age, smoking habits, major and minor abnormalities in ECG were associated with mortality in 1977-1987. Age, total cholesterol levels (inversely) and corrected QT were associated with mortality in 1989-1999. Age, smoking habits, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure were associated with mortality in 1999-2009. Predictors of mortality have changed with the times. Coronary risk factors such as smoking, increased heart rate, and elevated blood pressure have been recently associated with mortalities in elderly male Japanese general population. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in simulated chemical composition of global and regional population-weighted fine particulate matter over the recent 25 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Martin, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Boys, B.; Hammer, M. S.; Xu, J.; Marais, E. A.; Reff, A.; Strum, M.; Ridley, D. A.; Crippa, M.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

We interpret in situ and satellite observations with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to understand global trends in population-weighted mean chemical composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over 1989-2013. Simulated PM2.5 composition concentrations at 2˚ × 2.5˚ resolution are downscaled to 0.1˚ × 0.1˚ with satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 to better represent population exposure. Trends in simulated and observed population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition over 1989-2013 exhibit a high degree of consistency for (in situ vs. downscaled simulation) PM2.5 (-2.4 vs. -2.4 % yr-1), secondary inorganic aerosols (-4.3 vs. -4.1% yr-1), organic aerosols (OA, -3.6 vs. -3.0 % yr-1) and black carbon (-4.3 vs. -3.9 % yr-1) over North America, as well as sulfate (-4.7 vs. -5.8 % yr-1) over Europe. The downscaled simulation also has overlapping 95% confidence intervals with satellite-derived trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 for 20 of the 21 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions over 1998-2013. Over 1989-2013, most (79%) of the simulated increase in global population-weighted mean PM2.5 of 0.28 μg m-3yr-1 is explained by significantly (p < 0.05) increasing OA (0.10 μg m-3yr-1), nitrate (0.05 μg m-3yr-1), sulfate (0.04 μg m-3yr-1) and ammonium (0.03 μg m-3yr-1). These species predominantly drive trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 over populous regions of South Asia (0.94 μg m-3yr-1), East Asia (0.66 μg m-3yr-1), Western Europe (-0.47 μg m-3yr-1) and North America (-0.32 μg m-3yr-1), primarily due to changes in anthropogenic emissions. Mineral dust from deserts and OA over open burning regions usually cause weak, insignificant trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5, despite strong inter-annual variation. Global trends in area-weighted mean PM2.5 differ significantly from population-weighted trends in both the magnitude and sign, indicating the importance of population weighting for relevance to human exposure studies. This study provides new insights into global changes in PM2.5 exposure through the recent 25 years, with particular attention given to the evolution of PM2.5 composition.

A Detailed Study of the Delacroix Island Major Fault and Its Role on Stratigraphic Horizons from the Middle Miocene to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levesh, J. L.; McLindon, C.; Kulp, M. A.

2017-12-01

An in-depth field study of the Delacroix Island producing field illustrates the evolution of the main East-West trending Delacroix Island fault over the last thirteen million years. Well log correlation and 3-D seismic interpretation of eighteen bio-stratigraphic horizons across the fault reveal a range of stratigraphic thicknesses. A cross section, created with wells upthrown and downthrown to the fault, visually demonstrates varying degrees of thickening and displacement of the stratigraphic intervals across the fault. One upthrown and one downthrown well, with well log curve data up to 30 meters below the surface, were used to calculate interval thicknesses between the main tops as well as five more Pliocene/Pleistocene biostratigraphic markers. Isopach maps, created with these interval thicknesses, depict two styles of interval thickening both of which indicate differential subsidence across the fault. An interval thickness analysis was plotted in both depth and time as well as plots showing the rate of sediment accumulation and depth versus fault displacement. A lineation on the marsh surface consistent with a projection of the fault plane suggests that the fault movement has been episodically continuous to the present and that recent movement may have played a role in submerging the downthrown side of the surface fault trace.

Tidal sedimentation from a fluvial to estuarine transition, Douglas Group, Missourian -- Virgilian, Kansas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lanier, W.P.; Feldman, H.R.; Archer, A.W.

The Tonganoxie Sandstone Member of the Stranger Formation (Douglas Group, Upper Pennsylvanian, Kansas) was deposited in a funnel-shaped, northeast-southwest-trending paleovalley that was incised during the uppermost Missourian sealevel lowstand and backfilled during the subsequent transgression. Quarry exposures of the Tonganoxie near Ottawa, Kansas, include [approximately] 5 m of sheetlike, vertically accreted siltstones and sandy siltstones, bounded above and below by thin coals with upright plant fossils and paleosols. Strata range from submillimeter-thick, normally graded rhythmites to graded bedsets up to 12.5 cm thick with a vertical sedimentary structure sequence (VSS) consisting of the following intervals: (A) a basal massive tomore » normally graded interval; (B) a parallel-laminated interval; (C) a ripple-cross-laminated interval; and (D) an interval of draped lamination. The Tonganoxie succession has many similarities to fluvial overbank/floodplain deposits: sheetlike geometry, upright plant fossils, lack of bioturbation and body fossils, dominance of silt, and a punctuated style of rapid sedimentation from suspension-laden waning currents. Analysis of stratum-thickness variations through the succession suggests that tides significantly influenced sediment deposition. A fluvial-to-estuarine transitional depositional setting is interpreted for the Tonganoxie by analogy with modern depositional settings that show similar physical and biogenic sedimentary structures, vertical sequences of sedimentary structures, and aggradation rates.« less

Serum reference interval of ARCHITECT alpha-fetoprotein in healthy Chinese Han adults: Sub-analysis of a prospective multi-center study.

PubMed

Yan, Cunling; Yang, Jia; Wei, Lianhua; Hu, Jian; Song, Jiaqi; Wang, Xiaoqin; Han, Ruilin; Huang, Ying; Zhang, Wei; Soh, Andrew; Beshiri, Agim; Fan, Zhuping; Zheng, Yijie; Chen, Wei

2018-02-01

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been widely used in clinical practice for decades. However, large-scale survey of serum reference interval for ARCHITECT AFP is still absent in Chinese population. This study aimed to measure serum AFP levels in healthy Chinese Han subjects, which is a sub-analysis of an ongoing prospective, cross-sectional, multi-center study (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03047603). This analysis included a total of 530 participants (41.43±12.14years of age on average, 48.49% males), enrolled from 5 regional centers. Serum AFP level was measured by ARCHITECT immunoassay. Statistical analysis was performed using SAS 9.4 and R software. AFP distribution did not show significant correlation with age or sex. The overall median and interquartile range of AFP was 2.87 (2.09, 3.83) ng/mL. AFP level did not show a trend of increasing with age. The new reference interval was 2.0-7.07ng/mL (LOQ- 97.5th percentiles). The reference interval for ARCHITECT AFP is updated with the data of adequate number of healthy Han adults. This new reference interval is more practical and applicable in Chinese adults. Copyright © 2017 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Earlier warning: a multi-indicator approach to monitoring trends in the illicit use of medicines.

PubMed

Mounteney, Jane; Haugland, Siren

2009-03-01

The availability of medicines on the illicit drug market is currently high on the international policy agenda, linked to adverse health consequences including addiction, drug related overdoses and injection related problems. Continuous surveillance of illicit use of medicines allows for earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends and increased possibilities for earlier intervention to prevent spread of use and drug related harm. This paper aims to identify data sources capable of monitoring the illicit use of medicines; present trend findings for Rohypnol and Subutex using a multi-indicator monitoring approach; and consider the relevance of such models for policy makers. Data collection and analysis were undertaken in Bergen, Norway, using the Bergen Earlier Warning System (BEWS), a multi-indicator drug monitoring system. Data were gathered at six monthly intervals from April 2002 to September 2006. Drug indicator data from seizures, treatment, pharmacy sales, helplines, key informants and media monitoring were triangulated and an aggregated differential was used to plot trends. Results for the 4-year period showed a decline in the illicit use of Rohypnol and an increase in the illicit use of Subutex. Multi-indicator surveillance models can play a strategic role in the earlier identification and reporting of emerging trends in illicit use of medicines.

Suicide in Greece 1992-2012: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Papaslanis, Theodoros; Kontaxakis, Vassilis; Christodoulou, Christos; Konstantakopoulos, George; Kontaxaki, Maria-Irini; Papadimitriou, George N

2016-08-01

Since 2008, Greece has entered a long period of economic crisis with adverse effects on various aspects of daily life. In this frame, it is quite important to examine the suicide trends in Greece. Our analysis covered the period 1992-2012. 2012 was the last year for which official suicide data were available. The inclusion of data for pre-crisis period enabled us to assess trends in suicide preceding the economic crisis, starting in 2008. Trends in sex- and age-adjusted standardized suicide rates (SSR) were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Total SSR presented statistically significant annual decrease of 0.89% (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.7, -0.1) during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, the trend in total SSR increased statistically significant annual increase (12.48%; 95% CI: 0.3%, 26.1%). SSR in males presented an initial period of modest annual decrease (-0.84%; 95% CI: -1.6%, -0.1%), during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, an annual increase by 9.25% (95% CI: 2.7%, 16.3%) was revealed. No change in female SSR trend was observed during the studied period. According to the results of this study, there is clear evidence of an increase in the overall SSR and male SSR in Greece during the period of the current financial crisis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-09-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years -- a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings -- global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CE that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGregor, Helen V.; Evans, Michael N.; Goosse, Hugues; Leduc, Guillaume; Martrat, Belen; Addison, Jason A.; Mortyn, P. Graham; Oppo, Delia W.; Seidenkrantz, Marit-Solveig; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Phipps, Steven J.; Selvaraj, Kandasamy; Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Filipsson, Helena L.; Ersek, Vasile

2015-01-01

The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (CE) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 CEthat is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 CE, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 CE is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content.

A Coral-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Salinity at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu from 2007 to 1843 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorman, M. K.; Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Dunn, E. M.; Cabioch, G.; Ballu, V.; Maes, C.; Austin, J. A.; Saustrup, S.; Pelletier, B.

2011-12-01

We present a reconstruction of sea surface salinity (SSS) derived from a coral δ18O time series extending from 2007-1843 CE at Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (SBV, 166.04° E, 15.94°S). This reconstruction is significant because instrumental records of SSS are rare in time and space, yet the SSS response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is large in many regions of the tropical oceans. There is a strong positive relationship between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4 region; canonical ENSO signal) and six month lagged sea surface salinity anomalies (SSSA, data from Delcroix et al., 2011) at SBV, which establishes a dynamical link between surface ocean variability at SBV and ENSO variability. We calculate a coral δ18O anomaly time series and note that there is a strong correlation between it and instrumental SSS variations over the period 1970-2007 (r = 0.70, p < 0.01). We compute a linear transfer function that we use to predict SSS variations given observed coral δ18O variations. A calibration-verification exercise conducted over two intervals (1970-1987, 1988-2007) resulted in similar correlations between instrumental and reconstructed SSS for both time periods, which provides confidence in our SSS reconstructions in the pre-1970 interval. We further test our SBV transfer function by applying it to a previously published coral δ18O record from Malo Channel, Vanuatu (Kilbourne et al., 2004b), located 130 km to the east of Sabine Bank. The reconstructed SSS time series from the two locations over their common time interval (1991-1939 CE) are nearly always the same within error, indicating that the ENSO-influenced salinity signal is regional in extent, and can be reconstructed using coral δ18O records from Vanuatu. We observe high salinity excursions (>0.5 psu) pre-1970 corresponding to strong ENSO warm phase events recorded in the SST instrumental record and historical ENSO record (i.e. 1941-42, 1918-19, 1877-78), and an overall freshening trend, demonstrating the ability of our reconstructed dataset to capture interannual variability as well as long-term trends in SSS at Vanuatu.

On-line image analysis of the stromboli volcanic activity recorded by the surveillance camera helps the forecasting of the major eruptive events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristaldi, A.; Coltelli, M.; Mangiagli, S.; Pecora, E.

2003-04-01

The typical activity of Stromboli consists of intermittent mild explosions lasting a few seconds, which take place at different vents and at variable intervals, the most common time interval being 10-20 minutes. However, the routine activity can be interrupted by more violent, paroxysmal explosions, that eject m-sized scoriaceous bombs and lava blocks to a distance of several hundreds of meters from the craters, endangering the numerous tourists that watch the spectacular activity from the volcano's summit located about two hundreds meters from the active vents. On average, 1-2 paroxysmal explosions occurred per year over the past century, but this statistic may be underestimated in absence of continuous monitoring. For this reason from summer 1996 a remote surveillance camera works on Stromboli recording continuously the volcanic activity. It is located on Pizzo Sopra la Fossa, 100 metres above the crater terrace where are the active vents. Using image analysis we seeks to identify any change of the explosive activity trend that could precede a particular eruptive event, like paroxysmal explosions, fire fountains, lava flows. From the day of the camera installation up to present 12 paroxysmal events and lava flows occurred. The analysis include the counting of the explosions occurred at the different craters and the parameterization in classes of intensity for each explosion on the base of tephra dispersion and kinetics energy. The plot of dissipated energy by each crater versus time shows a cyclic behavior with max and min of explosive activity ranging from a few days to a month. Often the craters show opposite trends so when the activity decreases in a crater, increases in the other. Before every paroxysmal explosions recorded, the crater that produced the event decreased and then stopped its activity from a few days to weeks before. The other crater tried to compensate increasing its activity and when it declined the paroxysmal explosion occurred suddenly at the former site. From September 2001 an on-line image analyzer called VAMOS (Volcanic Activity MOnitoring System) operates detection and classification of explosive events in quasi real-time. The system has automatically recorded and analyzed the change in the energetic trend that preceded the 20 October 2001 paroxysmal explosion that killed a woman and the strong explosive activity that preceded the onset of 28 December 2002 lava flow eruption.

Sex differences in the application of evidence-based therapies for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction: the American College of Cardiology's Guidelines Applied in Practice projects in Michigan.

PubMed

Jani, Sandeep M; Montoye, Cecelia; Mehta, Rajendra; Riba, Arthur L; DeFranco, Anthony C; Parrish, Robert; Skorcz, Stephen; Baker, Patricia L; Faul, Jessica; Chen, Benrong; Roychoudhury, Canopy; Elma, Mary Anne C; Mitchell, Kristi R; Eagle, Kim A

2006-06-12

Studies have shown that women with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are less likely to receive evidence-based care compared with men. The American College of Cardiology's AMI Guidelines Applied in Practice (GAP) program has been shown to increase the rates of evidence-based medicine use and reduce mortality in patients with AMI. The objective of this study was to investigate the relative benefits of the GAP program in men and women. By using a predesign-postdesign, standard orders, and a discharge tool to improve evidence-based indicator rates and long-term mortality in patients with AMI in Michigan, this study compared the success of GAP in men vs women. Logistic regression was used to develop predictive models for death at 30 days and 1 year in men and women. Use of evidence-based care, including use of beta-blockers and aspirin in men and women at hospital discharge and lipid-lowering agent use in men, was higher in the post-GAP sample (P<.01 for all). Use of the discharge tool promoted by the GAP program was independently protective against death at 1 year in women (adjusted odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.27-0.79), and a trend existed for similar results in men (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.36-1.06). However, the tool was used slightly less often with women (27.9% vs 33.96%; P=.003). The GAP program increased the use of evidence-based therapies in male and female patients. In addition, the GAP discharge tool may decrease mortality rates at 1 year in patients with AMI; however, the tool was used less often with women. Greater use of the GAP discharge tool in women might narrow the post-MI sex mortality gap.

Impact of an Advanced Imaging Utilization Review Program on Downstream Health Care Utilization and Costs for Low Back Pain.

PubMed

Graves, Janessa M; Fulton-Kehoe, Deborah; Jarvik, Jeffrey G; Franklin, Gary M

2018-06-01

Early magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for acute low back pain (LBP) has been associated with increased costs, greater health care utilization, and longer disability duration in workers' compensation claimants. To assess the impact of a state policy implemented in June 2010 that required prospective utilization review (UR) for early MRI among workers' compensation claimants with LBP. Interrupted time series. In total, 76,119 Washington State workers' compensation claimants with LBP between 2006 and 2014. Proportion of workers receiving imaging per month (MRI, computed tomography, radiographs) and lumbosacral injections and surgery; mean total health care costs per worker; mean duration of disability per worker. Measures were aggregated monthly and attributed to injury month. After accounting for secular trends, decreases in early MRI [level change: -5.27 (95% confidence interval, -4.22 to -6.31); trend change: -0.06 (-0.01 to -0.12)], any MRI [-4.34 (-3.01 to -5.67); -0.10 (-0.04 to -0.17)], and injection [trend change: -0.12 (-0.06 to -0.18)] utilization were associated with the policy. Radiograph utilization increased in parallel [level change: 2.46 (1.24-3.67)]. In addition, the policy resulted in significant decreasing changes in mean costs per claim, mean disability duration, and proportion of workers who received disability benefits. The policy had no effect on computed tomography or surgery utilization. The UR policy had discernable effects on health care utilization, costs, and disability. Integrating evidence-based guidelines with UR can improve quality of care and patient outcomes, while reducing use of low-value health services.

Meat intake, cooking methods, dietary carcinogens, and colorectal cancer risk: findings from the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry.

PubMed

Joshi, Amit D; Kim, Andre; Lewinger, Juan Pablo; Ulrich, Cornelia M; Potter, John D; Cotterchio, Michelle; Le Marchand, Loic; Stern, Mariana C

2015-06-01

Diets high in red meat and processed meats are established colorectal cancer (CRC) risk factors. However, it is still not well understood what explains this association. We conducted comprehensive analyses of CRC risk and red meat and poultry intakes, taking into account cooking methods, level of doneness, estimated intakes of heterocyclic amines (HCAs) that accumulate during meat cooking, tumor location, and tumor mismatch repair proficiency (MMR) status. We analyzed food frequency and portion size data including a meat cooking module for 3364 CRC cases, 1806 unaffected siblings, 136 unaffected spouses, and 1620 unaffected population-based controls, recruited into the CRC Family Registry. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for nutrient density variables were estimated using generalized estimating equations. We found no evidence of an association between total nonprocessed red meat or total processed meat and CRC risk. Our main finding was a positive association with CRC for pan-fried beefsteak (P(trend) < 0.001), which was stronger among MMR deficient cases (heterogeneity P = 0.059). Other worth noting associations, of borderline statistical significance after multiple testing correction, were a positive association between diets high in oven-broiled short ribs or spareribs and CRC risk (P(trend) = 0.002), which was also stronger among MMR-deficient cases, and an inverse association with grilled hamburgers (P(trend) = 0.002). Our results support the role of specific meat types and cooking practices as possible sources of human carcinogens relevant for CRC risk. © 2015 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Information Accessibility of the Charcoal Burning Suicide Method in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cheng, Qijin; Chang, Shu-Sen; Guo, Yingqi; Yip, Paul S. F.

2015-01-01

Background There has been a marked rise in suicide by charcoal burning (CB) in some East Asian countries but little is known about its incidence in mainland China. We examined media-reported CB suicides and the availability of online information about the method in mainland China. Methods We extracted and analyzed data for i) the characteristics and trends of fatal and nonfatal CB suicides reported by mainland Chinese newspapers (1998–2014); ii) trends and geographic variations in online searches using keywords relating to CB suicide (2011–2014); and iii) the content of Internet search results. Results 109 CB suicide attempts (89 fatal and 20 nonfatal) were reported by newspapers in 13 out of the 31 provinces or provincial-level-municipalities in mainland China. There were increasing trends in the incidence of reported CB suicides and in online searches using CB-related keywords. The province-level search intensities were correlated with CB suicide rates (Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.43 [95% confidence interval: 0.08–0.68]). Two-thirds of the web links retrieved using the search engine contained detailed information about the CB suicide method, of which 15% showed pro-suicide attitudes, and the majority (86%) did not encourage people to seek help. Limitations The incidence of CB suicide was based on newspaper reports and likely to be underestimated. Conclusions Mental health and suicide prevention professionals in mainland China should be alert to the increased use of this highly lethal suicide method. Better surveillance and intervention strategies need to be developed and implemented. PMID:26474297

Trends in twin neonatal mortality rates in the United States, 1989 through 1999: influence of birth registration and obstetric intervention.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph Ks, K s; Smulian, John C

2004-05-01

We sought to evaluate the contributions of changes in birth registration, labor induction, and cesarean delivery on trends in twin neonatal mortality rates. We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of twin live births, using linked birth-infant death data in the United States (1989-1999). Relative risks and 95% confidence intervals that quantified changes in neonatal (0-27 days) mortality rates were derived from ecologic logistic regression models that were fit after aggregation of the data by each state in the United States. The frequency of live born twins who weighed <500 g increased 72%, from 0.7% in 1989 to 1.2% in 1999, of live born twins who weighed 500 to 749 g and 750 to 999 g increased by 55% and 28%, respectively, between 1989 and 1999. Preterm birth rates increased by 19%, from 46.2% in 1989 to 57.2% in 1999. The rate of labor induction increased from 5.8% to 13.9%, and the cesarean delivery rate increased from 49.8% to 56.3%. Between 1989 to 1991 and 1997 to 1999, the crude neonatal mortality rates among twins who weighed >or=500 g declined by 37% (95% CI, 35%-40%) from 21.5 to 13.6 per 1000 twin live births. Adjustments for preterm labor induction, preterm cesarean delivery, term labor induction, term cesarean delivery, and sociodemographic factors had little influence on neonatal mortality rate trends. Increases in preterm birth because of obstetric intervention among twins have not led to increases in twin neonatal mortality rates in the United States.

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

PubMed Central

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

High dietary acid load is associated with increased prevalence of hypertension: the Furukawa Nutrition and Health Study.

PubMed

Akter, Shamima; Eguchi, Masafumi; Kurotani, Kayo; Kochi, Takeshi; Pham, Ngoc Minh; Ito, Rie; Kuwahara, Keisuke; Tsuruoka, Hiroko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Kabe, Isamu; Nanri, Akiko

2015-02-01

Acid-base status has been suggested to influence blood pressure, but there is a paucity of epidemiologic evidence linking dietary acid load to hypertension. We examined cross-sectionally the association between dietary acid load and hypertension in a Japanese working population. Data were derived from health surveys from 2028 employees, ages 18 to 70 y, in two workplaces in Japan. A validated brief diet history questionnaire was used to assess diet. Two measures were used to characterize dietary acid load: potential renal acid load and estimated net endogenous acid production, which were derived from nutrient intakes. Multilevel logistic regression was used to examine the association between dietary acid load and hypertension with adjustment of potential confounding variables. High dietary acid load was suggestively associated with increased prevalence of hypertension. The multivariable adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) of hypertension for the lowest through highest tertiles of net endogenous acid production were 1.00 (reference), 1.07 (0.80-1.42), and 1.33 (0.998-1.78), respectively (P for trend = 0.053). This positive association was statistically significant among normal-weight (body mass index <23 kg/m(2); P for trend = 0.03) and non-shift workers (P for trend = 0.04). Similar positive associations were observed between potential renal acid load and hypertension. The present findings suggest that high dietary acid load may be associated with increased prevalence of hypertension among those who were normal weight and non-shift workers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Forecasting Influenza-like Illness (ILI) in Houston, Texas Using Three Surveillance Data Capture Mechanisms.

PubMed

Paul, Susannah; Mgbere, Osaro; Arafat, Raouf; Yang, Biru; Santos, Eunice

2017-01-01

Objective The objective was to forecast and validate prediction estimates of influenza activity in Houston, TX using four years of historical influenza-like illness (ILI) from three surveillance data capture mechanisms. Background Using novel surveillance methods and historical data to estimate future trends of influenza-like illness can lead to early detection of influenza activity increases and decreases. Anticipating surges gives public health professionals more time to prepare and increase prevention efforts. Methods Data was obtained from three surveillance systems, Flu Near You, ILINet, and hospital emergency center (EC) visits, with diverse data capture mechanisms. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were fitted to data from each source for week 27 of 2012 through week 26 of 2016 and used to forecast influenza-like activity for the subsequent 10 weeks. Estimates were then compared to actual ILI percentages for the same period. Results Forecasted estimates had wide confidence intervals that crossed zero. The forecasted trend direction differed by data source, resulting in lack of consensus about future influenza activity. ILINet forecasted estimates and actual percentages had the least differences. ILINet performed best when forecasting influenza activity in Houston, TX. Conclusion Though the three forecasted estimates did not agree on the trend directions, and thus, were considered imprecise predictors of long-term ILI activity based on existing data, pooling predictions and careful interpretations may be helpful for short term intervention efforts. Further work is needed to improve forecast accuracy considering the promise forecasting holds for seasonal influenza prevention and control, and pandemic preparedness.

Canopy disturbance intervals, early growth rates, and canopy accession trends of oak-dominated old-growth forests

Treesearch

James S. Rentch; Ray R., Jr. Hicks

2003-01-01

Using a radial growth averaging technique, changes in growth rates of overstory oaks were used to quantify canopy disturbance events at five old-growth sites. On average, at least one canopy disturbance occurred on these sites every 3 years; larger multiple-tree disturbances occurred every 17 years. Although there was some variation by site and by historical period,...

Proceedings of the 12th Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Applications and Planning Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardrip, S. C. (Editor)

1981-01-01

The meeting gave PTTI managers, systems engineers, and program planners a transparent view of the state-of-the-art, an opportunity to express needs, a view of important future trends, and a review of relevant past accomplishments. The PTTI users were provided with new and useful applications, procedures, and techniques. Emphasis is placed on military applications and avionics.

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel approach based on preference-based index for interval bilevel linear programming problem.

PubMed

Ren, Aihong; Wang, Yuping; Xue, Xingsi

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a new methodology for solving the interval bilevel linear programming problem in which all coefficients of both objective functions and constraints are considered as interval numbers. In order to keep as much uncertainty of the original constraint region as possible, the original problem is first converted into an interval bilevel programming problem with interval coefficients in both objective functions only through normal variation of interval number and chance-constrained programming. With the consideration of different preferences of different decision makers, the concept of the preference level that the interval objective function is preferred to a target interval is defined based on the preference-based index. Then a preference-based deterministic bilevel programming problem is constructed in terms of the preference level and the order relation [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, the concept of a preference δ -optimal solution is given. Subsequently, the constructed deterministic nonlinear bilevel problem is solved with the help of estimation of distribution algorithm. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A Pivotal Field Study to Support the Registration of Levothyroxine Sodium Tablets for Canine Hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Lewis, Victoria A; Morrow, Carla M K; Jacobsen, Johnny A; Lloyd, W Eugene

2018-05-14

A prospective, pivotal, multicenter field study to evaluate the dose regimen, effectiveness, and safety of levothyroxine sodium tablets, USP for the treatment of hypothyroidism and hypothyroidism-associated clinical signs in dogs was conducted. Ninety-two dogs diagnosed with primary hypothyroidism met the entrance criteria and were enrolled into the study. Levothyroxine sodium was administered to each dog on a daily basis either as the whole dose q 24 hr or as half the dose q 12 hr. Dosing started at 0.1 mg/10 lb (0.022 mg/kg) and continued for approximately 6 mo to Day 182. During this time, the thyroid status of each dog was evaluated at monthly intervals. For the determination of effectiveness, dogs classified as euthyroid at Day 182, based on their thyroid hormone values, were considered treatment successes. Results of the statistical analysis showed that there was no difference between the two dosing regimens (P = .11) and that when the data from both groups were pooled, the overall success rate was 75.64% (95% confidence interval = 66.34%). By Day 182, improvement and/or resolution of hypothyroidism-associated clinical signs was observed in all categories. No abnormal trends in the reported adverse events were observed.

Increased oil production and reserves from improved completion techniques in the Bluebell field, Uinta Basin, Utah. Tenth quarterly technical progress report, January 1, 1996--March 31, 1996. Revised

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allison, M.L.

1996-05-13

The objective of this project is to increase oil production and reserves in the Uinta Basin by demonstrating improved completion techniques. Low productivity of Uinta Basin will is caused by gross production intervals of several thousand feet that contain perforated thief zones, water-bearing zones, and unperforated oil- bearing intervals. Geologic and engineering characterization and computer simulation of the Green River and Wasatch Formations in the Bluefell field will determine reservoir heterogeneities related to fractures and depositional trends. This will be followed by techniques based on the reservoir characterization. Transfer of the project results will be an ongoing component of themore » project. Data (net pay thickness, porosity, and water saturation) of more than 100 individuals beds in he lower Green River and Wasatch Formations were used to generate geostatistical realization (numerical- representation) of the reservoir properties. The data set was derived from the Michelle Ute and Malnar Pike demonstration wells and 22 other wells in a 20 (52 km{sup 2}) square-mile area. Beds were studied independently of each other. Principles of sequential Gaussian simulations were used to generate geostatistical realizations of the beds.« less

Exercise-based interventions and C-reactive protein in overweight and obese youths: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

García-Hermoso, Antonio; Sánchez-López, Mairena; Escalante, Yolanda; Saavedra, Jose M; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente

2016-04-01

One of the most commonly measured markers of inflammation in clinical settings is C-reactive protein (CRP). The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the evidence for the effectiveness of physical exercise interventions on modifying the levels of serum CRP in children and adolescents with excess of weight. Two independent reviewers assessed articles from seven databases. Studies were limited to physical exercise interventions in children and adolescents diagnosed as overweight or obese, and including a comparison control group. Weighted mean difference (WMD) was calculated using random-effects model and potential moderators were explored (i.e., weight status, ages, duration of study, frequency of exercise per week, and duration of session). The heterogeneity of the studies was estimated using Cochran's Q-statistic and I(2). Nine randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria (n = 427 youths). Overall, results suggest a nonsignificant trend toward a reduction CRP levels (WMD = -0.72 mg/l; 95% confidence interval: -1.52 to 0.08; P = 0.077). Also, there were not significant moderators of exercise effects on CRP. These results suggest that exercise programs in children and adolescents not mitigate the inflammatory effects of excess weight, although there was a trend toward reduction.

Bone Tissue Donation: Tendency and Hurdles.

PubMed

El Hage, S; Dos Santos, M J; de Moraes, E L; de Barros E Silva, L B

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to identify the percentage of bone tissue donation in a brain death situation and the tendency of donation rate of this tissue in an organ procurement organization in the county of Sao Paulo from 2001 to 2016. It is a retrospective and quantitative study, based on the Organ and Tissue Donation Term of donors who died of brain death between 2001 and 2016. A logistic regression model was applied, and the odds of donation were identified throughout the years, regarding the odds ratio different from zero. Finally, it was measured the accuracy of the odds ratio through the confidence interval. The analysis has shown a significant change on the trend of bone donation (P < .001). In this case, the odds ratio was >1, indicating that the donation rate has increased. However, the percentage of growth is still considered low. The study evidences a growth trend regarding the donation of bone tissue, but the percentage is still too low to adequately meet the demand of patients who need this modality of therapeutic intervention. It is believed that educational campaigns of donation are not emphasizing the donation of tissues for transplantation, which may be directly impacting their consent rates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fruit and vegetable consumption is inversely associated with having pancreatic cancer.

PubMed

Jansen, Rick J; Robinson, Dennis P; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael Z; Bamlet, William R; de Andrade, Mariza; Oberg, Ann L; Hammer, Traci J; Rabe, Kari G; Anderson, Kristin E; Olson, Janet E; Sinha, Rashmi; Petersen, Gloria M

2011-12-01

Studies on fruit, vegetable, fiber, and grain consumption and pancreatic cancer risk are inconclusive. We used a clinic-based case-control study specifically designed to address limitations of both cohort and case-control studies to examine the relationship. Participants were excluded who reported changing their diet within 5 years prior to study entry. And 384 rapidly ascertained cases and 983 controls (frequency matched on age (±5 years), race, sex, and residence) completed epidemiologic surveys and 144-item food frequency questionnaires. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, energy intake, and alcohol consumption. Comparing highest to lowest quintiles, we observed significant inverse associations (OR < 0.8) with significant trends (p (trend) < 0.05) for citrus, melon, and berries, other fruits, dark green vegetables, deep yellow vegetables, tomato, other vegetables, dry bean and pea, insoluble fiber, soluble fiber, whole grains, and orange/grapefruit juice, and an increased association with non-whole grains. Results were similar after adjusting for diabetes or total sugar intake. We provide evidence that lower consumption of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and fiber is associated with having pancreatic cancer. This may have a role in developing prevention strategies.

Research trends in human osteology: a content analysis of papers published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology.

PubMed

Stojanowski, Christopher M; Buikstra, Jane E

2005-09-01

This paper explores recent research trends in human osteology, based on articles published in the American Journal of Physical Anthropology (AJPA) during two 5-year intervals: 1980--1984 and 1996--2000. Topical "visibility" is measured in terms of article counts; "impact" is estimated through citation indices. Our results indicate that human osteologists continue to publish a range of methodological, analytical, and descriptive research papers that address a broad array of subjects. Analytical articles are cited more frequently than descriptive articles and thus have higher impact, reflecting the discipline's continued commitment to problem-oriented research. Differences in publication patterns exist between scholars during early and later stages of their careers. Articles published by students and Ph.D.s within 2 years of their doctoral degree are more frequently descriptive than analytical, when compared to people with longer career histories. Topics such as pathology, forensic anthropology, and biodistance modeling remain highly visible, while articles on the dentition have waned. An increase in functional research directed toward the postcranial skeleton is also reflected in our data. While continued visibility for morphological investigations is apparent, the impact of recently developed applications in bone chemistry and molecular anthropology is amply documented in our data, particularly during the more recent survey years. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Urinary Biomarkers of Catechins and Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the Shanghai Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Butler, Lesley M.; Huang, Joyce Yongxu; Wang, Renwei; Lee, Mao-Jun; Yang, Chung S.; Gao, Yu-Tang; Yuan, Jian-Min

2015-01-01

Dietary catechins are phytochemicals with both antioxidative and prooxidative stress properties. Green tea is a major source of catechins and may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk, but the catechin-HCC relationship has not been evaluated using a biomarker-based approach. A nested case-control study of HCC (211 cases and 1,067 matched controls) was conducted within the Shanghai Cohort Study, which enrolled 18,244 men between 1986 and 1989. Concentrations of specific catechins, including epicatechin, epigallocatechin (EGC), and 4′-O-methyl-epigallocatechin, were measured in urine specimens that had been collected prior to HCC diagnosis. None of the catechins measured were associated with HCC risk. In stratified analyses, there was a statistically significant trend for an association of higher urinary EGC with increased HCC risk among subjects with positive serology for hepatitis B surface antigen (P for trend = 0.02). This positive EGC-HCC association became stronger for hepatitis B surface antigen–positive persons who also had low serum retinol levels (for detectable levels vs. undetectable levels, odds ratio = 2.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 5.51). There was no evidence supporting a protective role of catechins in the development of HCC. Instead, exposure to high levels of catechins may increase the risk of developing HCC for high-risk individuals. PMID:25713334

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

Neonatal encephalopathy and socioeconomic status: population-based case-control study.

PubMed

Blume, Heidi K; Loch, Christian M; Li, Christopher I

2007-07-01

To investigate the association between maternal socioeconomic status and the risk of encephalopathy in full-term newborns. Population-based case-control study. Washington State births from 1994 through 2002 recorded in the linked Washington State Birth Registry and Comprehensive Hospital Abstract Reporting System. Cases (n = 1060) were singleton full-term newborns with Comprehensive Hospital Abstract Reporting System International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnoses of seizures, birth asphyxia, central nervous system dysfunction, or cerebral irritability. Control cases (n = 5330) were singleton full-term newborns selected from the same database. Main Exposures Socioeconomic status was defined by median income of the census tract of the mother's residence, number of years of maternal educational achievement, or maternal insurance status. Odds ratios estimating the risk of encephalopathy associated with disadvantaged socioeconomic status were calculated in 3 separate analyses using multivariate adjusted logistic regression. Newborns of mothers living in neighborhoods in which residents have a low median income were at increased risk of encephalopathy compared with newborns in neighborhoods in which residents have a median income more than 3 times the poverty level (adjusted odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3). There was also a trend for increasing risk of encephalopathy associated with decreasing neighborhood income (P<.001). Newborns of mothers with less than 12 years of educational achievement had a higher risk of encephalopathy compared with newborns of mothers with more than 16 years of educational achievement (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.3). Newborns of mothers receiving public insurance also had a higher risk of encephalopathy compared with newborns of mothers who have commercial insurance (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.7). Disadvantaged socioeconomic status was independently associated with an increased risk of encephalopathy in full-term newborns. These findings suggest that a mother's socioeconomic status may influence the risk of encephalopathy for her full-term newborn.

Incidence, risk factors, management and outcomes of amniotic-fluid embolism: a population-based cohort and nested case-control study.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, K E; Tuffnell, D; Kurinczuk, J J; Knight, M

2016-01-01

To describe the incidence, risk factors, management and outcomes of amniotic-fluid embolism (AFE) over time. A population-based cohort and nested case-control study using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System (UKOSS). All UK hospitals with obstetrician-led maternity units. All women diagnosed with AFE in the UK between February 2005 and January 2014 (n = 120) and 3839 control women. Prospective case and control identification through UKOSS monthly mailing. Amniotic-fluid embolism, maternal death or permanent neurological injury. The total and fatal incidence of AFE, estimated as 1.7 and 0.3 per 100 000, respectively, showed no significant temporal trend over the study period and there was no notable temporal change in risk factors for AFE. Twenty-three women died (case fatality 19%) and seven (7%) of the surviving women had permanent neurological injury. Women who died or had permanent neurological injury were more likely to present with cardiac arrest (83% versus 33%, P < 0.001), be from ethnic-minority groups (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.85, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.02-8.00), have had a hysterectomy (unadjusted OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.02-6.06), had a shorter time interval between the AFE event and when the hysterectomy was performed (median interval 77 minutes versus 248 minutes, P = 0.0315), and were less likely to receive cryoprecipitate (unadjusted OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.11-0.80). There is no evidence of a temporal change in the incidence of or risk factors for AFE. Further investigation is needed to establish whether earlier treatments can reverse the cascade of deterioration leading to severe outcomes. © 2015 The Authors. BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

PubMed

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

Trends in Health Care Expenditure among U.S. Adults with Heart Failure - The Medical Expenditure Panel Survey 2002–2011

PubMed Central

Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B.; Bishu, Kinfe G.; Fonarow, Gregg C; Egede, Leonard E.

2017-01-01

Background Population-based national data on the trends in expenditures related to heart failure (HF) is scarce. Assessing the time trends in health care expenditures for HF in the United States can help to better define the burden of this condition. Methods Using 10-year data (2002–2011) from the national Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (weighted sample of 188,708,194 U.S adults aged ≥18 years) and a two-part model (adjusting for demographics, comorbidities and time); we estimated adjusted mean and incremental medical expenditures by HF status. The costs were direct total health care expenditures (out-of-pocket payments and payments by private insurance, Medicaid, Medicare, and other sources) from various sources (office-based visits, hospital outpatient, emergency room, inpatient hospital, pharmacy, home health care, and other medical expenditures). Results Compared to expenditures for individuals without HF ($5,511 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5,405–5,617]), individuals with HF had a four-fold higher mean expenditures of ($23,854 [95%CI: 21,733–25,975]). Individuals with HF had $3,446 (95%CI: 2,592–4,299) higher direct incremental expenditures compared with those without HF, after adjusting for demographics and comorbidities. Among those with HF, costs continuously increased by $5836 (28% relative increase), from $21,316 (95%CI: 18,359–24,272) in 2002/2003 to $27,152 (95%CI: 20,066–34,237) in 2010/2011; and inpatient costs ($11,318 over the whole period) were the single largest component of total medical expenditure. The estimated unadjusted total direct medical expenditures for US adults with HF were $30 billion/year and the adjusted total incremental expenditure $5.8 billion/year. Conclusions Heart failure is costly and over a recent 10-year period, direct expenditure related to HF increased markedly, mainly driven by inpatient costs. PMID:28454834

Recent trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children

PubMed Central

Rodd, Celia; Sharma, Atul K.

2016-01-01

Background: Previous studies have shown an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children from 23.3% to 34.7% during 1978–2004. We examined the most recent trends by applying current definitions of overweight and obesity based on World Health Organization (WHO) body mass index (BMI) thresholds and recently validated norms for waist circumference and waist:height ratio. Methods: We examined directly measured height and weight data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2004–2005) and the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2009–2013). We calculated z scores for BMI, height and weight based on the 2014 WHO growth charts for Canada, including the new extension of weight-for-age beyond 10 years. To calculate z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratios, we used new charts from the reference population in the US NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988–1994). Results: Data were available for 14 014 children aged 3–19 years for the period 2004–2013. We observed a decline in the prevalence of overweight or obesity, from 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 29.7% to 31.6%) to 27.0% (95% CI 25.3% to 28.7%) (p < 0.001) and stabilization in the prevalence of obesity at about 13%. These trends persisted after we adjusted for age, sex and race/ethnicity. Although they declined, the median z scores for BMI, weight and height were positive and higher than those in the WHO reference population. The z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratio were negative, which indicated that the Canadian children had less central adiposity than American children in historic or contemporary NHANES cohorts. Interpretation: After a period of dramatic growth, BMI z scores and the prevalence of overweight or obesity among Canadian children decreased from 2004 to 2013, which attests to progress against this important public health challenge. PMID:27160875

Trends in AIDS-related mortality among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricélia da Silveira; Firmo, Andréa Acioly Maia; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio

2016-12-01

The success of antiretroviral therapy has led to an increase in the number of older people living with human immunodeficiency virus worldwide. This study analyzed the epidemiological patterns and time trends of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) related mortality in people aged 60 and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Secondary mortality data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System was used to perform a nationwide population-based study, which included all AIDS-related deaths among people aged 60 years and older in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants) were calculated by sex, age group and place of residence. Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis. In the 12-year study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil, of which 144,175 were AIDS-related deaths. A total of 8194 AIDS-related deaths was identified in people aged 60 years and older (0.12% of all deaths and 5.7% of AIDS-related deaths). The overall age-adjusted mortality rate for the period was 4.30 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 3.99-4.64). Males (6.45 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), aged 60-64 years (6.63 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) and residing in the South region (5.94 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) had the highest mortality rates. We observed a significant increase in mortality at the national level and in all the Brazilian regions, with a sharper increase in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged regions of the country, such as the North and Northeast. The findings show that AIDS in older people is an increasing public health problem in Brazil, and reinforce the need to establish public policies for the prevention, early diagnosis and appropriate clinical treatment of this age group.

Incidence of Appendicitis over Time: A Comparative Analysis of an Administrative Healthcare Database and a Pathology-Proven Appendicitis Registry

PubMed Central

Clement, Fiona; Zimmer, Scott; Dixon, Elijah; Ball, Chad G.; Heitman, Steven J.; Swain, Mark; Ghosh, Subrata

2016-01-01

Importance At the turn of the 21st century, studies evaluating the change in incidence of appendicitis over time have reported inconsistent findings. Objectives We compared the differences in the incidence of appendicitis derived from a pathology registry versus an administrative database in order to validate coding in administrative databases and establish temporal trends in the incidence of appendicitis. Design We conducted a population-based comparative cohort study to identify all individuals with appendicitis from 2000 to2008. Setting & Participants Two population-based data sources were used to identify cases of appendicitis: 1) a pathology registry (n = 8,822); and 2) a hospital discharge abstract database (n = 10,453). Intervention & Main Outcome The administrative database was compared to the pathology registry for the following a priori analyses: 1) to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of administrative codes; 2) to compare the annual incidence of appendicitis; and 3) to assess differences in temporal trends. Temporal trends were assessed using a generalized linear model that assumed a Poisson distribution and reported as an annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Analyses were stratified by perforated and non-perforated appendicitis. Results The administrative database (PPV = 83.0%) overestimated the incidence of appendicitis (100.3 per 100,000) when compared to the pathology registry (84.2 per 100,000). Codes for perforated appendicitis were not reliable (PPV = 52.4%) leading to overestimation in the incidence of perforated appendicitis in the administrative database (34.8 per 100,000) as compared to the pathology registry (19.4 per 100,000). The incidence of appendicitis significantly increased over time in both the administrative database (APC = 2.1%; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.8) and pathology registry (APC = 4.1; 95% CI: 3.1, 5.0). Conclusion & Relevance The administrative database overestimated the incidence of appendicitis, particularly among perforated appendicitis. Therefore, studies utilizing administrative data to analyze perforated appendicitis should be interpreted cautiously. PMID:27820826

Associations Between Vitamin D Intake and Progression to Incident Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PubMed Central

Merle, Bénédicte M. J.; Silver, Rachel E.; Rosner, Bernard; Seddon, Johanna M.

2017-01-01

Purpose There is growing evidence of the importance of nutrition in age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but no prospective studies have explored the impact of vitamin D. We evaluated the association between vitamin D intake and progression to advanced AMD. Methods Among 2146 participants (3965 eyes), 541 (777 eyes) progressed from early or intermediate AMD to advanced disease (mean follow-up: 9.4 years) based on ocular imaging. Nutrients were log transformed and calorie adjusted. Survival analysis was used to assess associations between incident advanced disease and vitamin D intake. Neovascular disease (NV) and geographic atrophy (GA) were evaluated separately. Combined effects of dietary vitamin D and calcium were assessed based on high or low consumption of each nutrient. Results There was a lower risk of progression to advanced AMD in the highest versus lowest quintile of dietary vitamin D intake after adjustment for demographic, behavioral, ocular, and nutritional factors (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.83; P trend = 0.0007). Similar results were observed for NV (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.39–0.89; P trend = 0.005) but not GA (HR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.53–1.30; P trend = 0.35). A protective effect was observed for advanced AMD among participants with high vitamin D and low calcium compared to the group with low levels for each nutrient (HR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.50–0.88; P = 0.005). When supplement use was considered, the effect was in the protective direction but was not significant. Conclusions A diet rich in vitamin D may prevent or delay progression to advanced AMD, especially NV. Additional exploration is needed to elucidate the potential protective role of vitamin D and its contribution to reducing visual loss. PMID:28892825

Recent trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children.

PubMed

Rodd, Celia; Sharma, Atul K

2016-09-20

Previous studies have shown an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children from 23.3% to 34.7% during 1978-2004. We examined the most recent trends by applying current definitions of overweight and obesity based on World Health Organization (WHO) body mass index (BMI) thresholds and recently validated norms for waist circumference and waist:height ratio. We examined directly measured height and weight data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2004-2005) and the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2009-2013). We calculated z scores for BMI, height and weight based on the 2014 WHO growth charts for Canada, including the new extension of weight-for-age beyond 10 years. To calculate z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratios, we used new charts from the reference population in the US NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994). Data were available for 14 014 children aged 3-19 years for the period 2004-2013. We observed a decline in the prevalence of overweight or obesity, from 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 29.7% to 31.6%) to 27.0% (95% CI 25.3% to 28.7%) (p < 0.001) and stabilization in the prevalence of obesity at about 13%. These trends persisted after we adjusted for age, sex and race/ethnicity. Although they declined, the median z scores for BMI, weight and height were positive and higher than those in the WHO reference population. The z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratio were negative, which indicated that the Canadian children had less central adiposity than American children in historic or contemporary NHANES cohorts. After a period of dramatic growth, BMI z scores and the prevalence of overweight or obesity among Canadian children decreased from 2004 to 2013, which attests to progress against this important public health challenge. © 2016 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Climatic and hydrologic perturbations in eastern North America during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eley, Y.; Hren, M. T.; Super, J. R.

2017-12-01

The Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, 15-17 Ma) was the warmest period of the Neogene, punctuating the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend of the last 50 million years. Temperatures during the MMCO are thought to have reached 4-5 °C higher than modern, despite relatively modest atmospheric pCO2 concentrations of 300-500 ppm. Similarity between Miocene pCO2 levels and those forecast for the next century make the MMCO a key interval for understanding the potential impacts of anthropogenic pCO2 forcing. Evaluation of the climatic drivers and environmental consequences of this transient warming event is challenging, however, due to the limited number of high resolution proxy records of temperature and hydrologic change through the MMCO, particularly from terrestrial sites. Here, we present a new organic molecular record from the Calvert Cliffs formation in Maryland, to investigate terrestrial and near-shore environmental conditions during the MMCO. We observe small-scale fluctuations of 2 °C in isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) TEX86-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs), however these are superimposed on a long-term gradual warming trend that raises SSTs by 5 °C between 16.5 Ma and 14 Ma. In contrast, the MBT'-CBT soil temperature proxy, based on terrestrially sourced branched GDGTs, suggests mean annual temperatures rose by 3 °C between 16.5 and 15.9 Ma. Over the same interval, leaf wax n-alkane hydrogen isotopes show a rapid positive shift of 40‰, which we attribute to the influence of these warmer temperatures on the condensation of precipitation. A coeval negative excursion of 2‰ in carbon isotopes is indicative of an increase in rainfall during this mid-Miocene warming. The timing of biomarker-derived terrestrial climatic and hydrologic perturbations closely match reconstructed shifts in atmospheric pCO2, illustrating the tight coupling between terrestrial environmental change and carbon cycling during the middle Miocene.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is critical with regard to the ability to measure accurate long term trends.

High Dietary Glycemic Load is Associated with Poor Functional Outcome in Patients with Acute Cerebral Infarction.

PubMed

Song, Tae Jin; Chang, Yoonkyung; Chun, Min Young; Lee, Chan Young; Kim, A Ram; Kim, Yuri; Kim, Yong Jae

2018-04-01

Elevated postprandial blood glucose is a critical risk factor for stroke. The dietary glycemic load (GL) and glycemic index (GI) are frequently used as markers of the postprandial blood glucose response to estimate the overall glycemic effect of diets. We hypothesized that high dietary GL, GI, or total carbohydrate intake is associated with a poor functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. We prospectively included 263 first-ever ischemic stroke patients who completed a semiquantitative food-frequency questionnaire. The dietary GL, GI, and total carbohydrate intake were investigated by examining the average frequency of intake during the previous year based on reference amounts for various food items. Poor functional outcome was defined as a score on the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of ≥3 at 3 months after stroke. The patients were aged 65.4±11.7 years (mean±standard deviation), and 58.2% of them were male. A multivariate analysis adjusted for age, sex, marital status, prestroke mRS score, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, body mass index, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, hemoglobin A1c, stroke classification, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, early neurological deterioration, and high-grade white-matter hyperintensities revealed that the dietary GL and total carbohydrate intake were associated with a poor functional outcome, with odds ratios for the top quartile relative to the bottom quartile of 28.93 (95% confidence interval=2.82-296.04) and 36.84 (95% confidence interval=2.99-453.42), respectively (p for trend=0.002 and 0.002, respectively). In contrast, high dietary GI was not associated with a poor functional outcome (p for trend=0.481). Increased dietary GL and carbohydrate intake were associated with a poor short-term functional outcome after an acute ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2018 Korean Neurological Association.

Multi-decadal frontal change rates of tidewater glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Alison; Copland, Luke; Stokes, Chris; Bentley, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent studies of post-2000 observational data have shown variability in the dynamic ice discharge of tidewater glaciers throughout the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Expanding this to all tidewater glaciers in the region on a decadal time scale using earlier records can help identify when glacier retreat began, and determine longer-term temporal trends in mass balance. Our study shows that over 94% of 300 tidewater glaciers in the CAA (from southern Baffin Island to Ellesmere Island, excluding those on the northern coast) have retreated since the earliest observational records (aerial photographs acquired in 1958-1960). Mean overall length change rate of the 211 glaciers in the Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI) is -9.3 ma-1 (± 1.38 SE), and of the 89 glaciers on Baffin and Bylot Islands (BBI) is -7.1 ma-1 (± 0.72 SE). Mean frontal widths of tidewater glaciers in the QEI are greater than those on islands to the south, resulting in greater mean area loss from this region. Each glacier has 6 frontal positions digitised from a range of image sources at approximately decadal intervals. Length change rates have been calculated across each time interval for each glacier, based on area changes divided by glacier frontal width. Results indicate a similar temporal pattern throughout the region, whereby glaciers show minimal change in early years with retreat rates slowly increasing, followed by acceleration in retreat rates since the late 1990s. Mean change rates in the QEI and BBI in the 1960s were -6.92 ma-1 and -0.51 ma-1 respectively, increasing to -28.96 ma-1 and -24.84 ma-1 since 2010. The same trend (at differing magnitudes) has been observed within each latitudinal degree band, and for glaciers of differing frontal widths. Further observations of glacier changes and links to climate change are revealed on the poster.

Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men?: Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study.

PubMed

Livingstone, Katherine M; Lovegrove, Julie A; Cockcroft, John R; Elwood, Peter C; Pickering, Janet E; Givens, D Ian

2013-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

Association mining of dependency between time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafez, Alaaeldin

2001-03-01

Time series analysis is considered as a crucial component of strategic control over a broad variety of disciplines in business, science and engineering. Time series data is a sequence of observations collected over intervals of time. Each time series describes a phenomenon as a function of time. Analysis on time series data includes discovering trends (or patterns) in a time series sequence. In the last few years, data mining has emerged and been recognized as a new technology for data analysis. Data Mining is the process of discovering potentially valuable patterns, associations, trends, sequences and dependencies in data. Data mining techniques can discover information that many traditional business analysis and statistical techniques fail to deliver. In this paper, we adapt and innovate data mining techniques to analyze time series data. By using data mining techniques, maximal frequent patterns are discovered and used in predicting future sequences or trends, where trends describe the behavior of a sequence. In order to include different types of time series (e.g. irregular and non- systematic), we consider past frequent patterns of the same time sequences (local patterns) and of other dependent time sequences (global patterns). We use the word 'dependent' instead of the word 'similar' for emphasis on real life time series where two time series sequences could be completely different (in values, shapes, etc.), but they still react to the same conditions in a dependent way. In this paper, we propose the Dependence Mining Technique that could be used in predicting time series sequences. The proposed technique consists of three phases: (a) for all time series sequences, generate their trend sequences, (b) discover maximal frequent trend patterns, generate pattern vectors (to keep information of frequent trend patterns), use trend pattern vectors to predict future time series sequences.

Trends in adverse events of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) in the USA, 1998 to 2008.

PubMed

Stroup, Sean P; Palazzi-Churas, Kerrin; Kopp, Ryan P; Parsons, J Kellogg

2012-01-01

To determine if the adverse events (AEs) of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) have declined in tandem with increased use of oral therapy. We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a 20% sample of USA community hospitals, weighted to estimate national numbers to characterize the prevalence of AEs of BPH from 1998 to 2008. We calculated the age-adjusted prevalence of BPH and associated conditions and analyzed prevalence trends with regression modelling. Of 134 million estimated eligible discharges during the study period, 7,464,730 (5.6%) had either a primary or secondary diagnosis of BPH. The age-adjusted prevalence of BPH among all hospitalizations, irrespective of primary diagnosis, increased from 4.3% to 8% (P < 0.001) during the study period. The age-adjusted prevalence of BPH as a primary diagnosis decreased from 0.88% to 0.48% (P < 0.001). Discharges for BPH surgery decreased 51% (odds ratio [OR] 0.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.45-0.54, P-trend <0.001) over time. Discharges for primary BPH with acute renal failure increased >400% (OR 4.28, 95% CI 3.22-5.71, P-trend <0.001). There were no significant changes in discharges for primary BPH with urinary retention (P-trend = 0.636), bladder stones (P-trend = 0.117), or urinary infection (P-trend = 0.101) over time. Increased hospitalizations for BPH with acute renal failure and stable hospitalizations for other AEs of BPH indicate that severe AEs of BPH persist despite widespread use of oral therapies in the USA. Further studies are needed to explain these trends. © 2011 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2011 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Estimation of desmosponge (Porifera, Demospongiae) larval settlement rates from short-term recruitment rates: Preliminary experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zea, Sven

1992-09-01

During a study of the spatial and temporal patterns of desmosponge (Porifera, Demospongiae) recruitment on rocky and coral reef habitats of Santa Marta, Colombian Caribbean Sea, preliminary attempts were made to estimate actual settlement rates from short-term (1 to a few days) recruitment censuses. Short-term recruitment rates on black, acrylic plastic plates attached to open, non-cryptic substratum by anchor screws were low and variable (0 5 recruits/plate in 1 2 days, sets of n=5 10 plates), but reflected the depth and seasonal trends found using mid-term (1 to a few months) censusing intervals. Moreover, mortality of recruits during 1 2 day intervals was low (0 12%). Thus, short-term censusing intervals can be used to estimate actual settlement rates. To be able to make statistical comparisons, however, it is necessary to increase the number of recruits per census by pooling data of n plates per set, and to have more than one set per site or treatment.

Polar Frontal Migration in the Warm Late Pliocene: Diatom Evidence from The Wilkes Land Margin, East Antarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riesselman, C. R.; Taylor-Silva, B.; Patterson, M. O.

2017-12-01

The Late Pliocene is the most recent interval in Earth's history to sustain global temperatures within the range of warming predicted for the 21st century. Published global reconstructions and climate models find an average +2° C summer SST anomaly relative to modern during the 3.3-3.0 Ma PRISM interval, when atmospheric CO2 concentrations last reached 400 ppm. Here, we present a new diatom-based reconstruction of Pliocene interglacial sea surface conditions from IODP Site U1361, on the East Antarctic continental rise. U1361 biogenic silica concentrations document the alternation of diatom-rich and diatom-poor lithologies; we interpret 8 diatom-rich mudstones within this sequence to record interglacial periods between 3.8 and 2.8 Ma. We find that open-ocean conditions in the mid-Pliocene became increasingly influenced by sea ice from 3.6-3.2 Ma, prior to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This cooling trend was interrupted by a temporary southward migration of the Antarctic Polar Front, bathing U1361 in warmer subantarctic waters during a single interglacial, marine isotope stage KM3 (3.17-3.15 Ma), that corresponds to a maximum in summer insolation at 65°S. Following this interval of transient warmth, interglacial periods became progressively cooler starting at 3 Ma, coinciding with a transition from obliquity to precession as the dominant orbital driver of Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations. Building on the identification of a single outlier interglacial within the PRISM interval, we have revisited older reconstructions to explore the response of the Southern Ocean/cryosphere system to peak late Pliocene warmth. By applying a modern chronostratigraphic framework to those low-resolution "mean interglacial" records, we identify the same frontal migration in 4 other cores in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, documenting a major migration of the polar front during a key interval of warm climate. These new results suggest that increased summer insolation during KM3, combined with atmospheric CO2 similar to modern concentrations, provided sufficient forcing to overcome bathymetric constraints on polar frontal position, pushing warm subantarctic waters into proximity with vulnerable portions of Antarctica's marine ice sheets.

Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

PubMed

Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

2014-08-01

Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Population-based weight loss and gain do not explain trends in asthma mortality in Cuba: A prospective study from 1964 to 2014.

PubMed

Suárez-Medina, Ramón; Venero-Fernández, Silvia Josefina; Britton, John; Fogarty, Andrew W

2016-09-01

The increase in prevalence of obesity is a possible risk factor for asthma in developed countries. As the people of Cuba experienced an acute population-based decrease in weight in the 1990s, we tested the hypothesis that national weight loss and subsequent weight gain was associated a reciprocal changes in asthma mortality. Data were obtained on mortality rates from asthma and COPD in Cuba from 1964 to 2014, along with data on prevalence of obesity for this period. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify inflexion points in the data. Although the prevalence of obesity from 1990 to 1995 decreased from 14% to 7%, over the same time period the rate of asthma mortality increased from 4.5 deaths per 100,000 population to 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2010, the obesity prevalence subsequently increased to 15% in 2010, while the asthma mortality rate dropped to 2.3 deaths per 100,000 population. The optimal model for fit of asthma mortality over time gave an increasing linear association from 1964 to 1995 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1993 to 1997), followed by a decrease in asthma mortality rates from 1995 to 1999 (95% confidence interval for inflexion point: 1997 to 2002). These national data do not support the hypothesis that population-based changes in weight are associated with asthma mortality. Other possible explanations for the large decreases in asthma mortality rates include changes in pollution or better delivery of medical care over the same time period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

RISMA: A Rule-based Interval State Machine Algorithm for Alerts Generation, Performance Analysis and Monitoring Real-Time Data Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laban, Shaban; El-Desouky, Aly

2013-04-01

The monitoring of real-time systems is a challenging and complicated process. So, there is a continuous need to improve the monitoring process through the use of new intelligent techniques and algorithms for detecting exceptions, anomalous behaviours and generating the necessary alerts during the workflow monitoring of such systems. The interval-based or period-based theorems have been discussed, analysed, and used by many researches in Artificial Intelligence (AI), philosophy, and linguistics. As explained by Allen, there are 13 relations between any two intervals. Also, there have also been many studies of interval-based temporal reasoning and logics over the past decades. Interval-based theorems can be used for monitoring real-time interval-based data processing. However, increasing the number of processed intervals makes the implementation of such theorems a complex and time consuming process as the relationships between such intervals are increasing exponentially. To overcome the previous problem, this paper presents a Rule-based Interval State Machine Algorithm (RISMA) for processing, monitoring, and analysing the behaviour of interval-based data, received from real-time sensors. The proposed intelligent algorithm uses the Interval State Machine (ISM) approach to model any number of interval-based data into well-defined states as well as inferring them. An interval-based state transition model and methodology are presented to identify the relationships between the different states of the proposed algorithm. By using such model, the unlimited number of relationships between similar large numbers of intervals can be reduced to only 18 direct relationships using the proposed well-defined states. For testing the proposed algorithm, necessary inference rules and code have been designed and applied to the continuous data received in near real-time from the stations of International Monitoring System (IMS) by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The CLIPS expert system shell has been used as the main rule engine for implementing the algorithm rules. Python programming language and the module "PyCLIPS" are used for building the necessary code for algorithm implementation. More than 1.7 million intervals constitute the Concise List of Frames (CLF) from 20 different seismic stations have been used for evaluating the proposed algorithm and evaluating stations behaviour and performance. The initial results showed that proposed algorithm can help in better understanding of the operation and performance of those stations. Different important information, such as alerts and some station performance parameters, can be derived from the proposed algorithm. For IMS interval-based data and at any period of time it is possible to analyze station behavior, determine the missing data, generate necessary alerts, and to measure some of station performance attributes. The details of the proposed algorithm, methodology, implementation, experimental results, advantages, and limitations of this research are presented. Finally, future directions and recommendations are discussed.

A 10-Year Interval Study About the Sexual Life and Attitudes of Korean Women: The Korean Internet Sexuality Survey (KISS) 2014, Part 2.

PubMed

Park, Juhyun; Min, Byunghun; Shin, Hyojin; Oh, Sohee; Song, Won Hoon; Cho, Sung Yong; Cho, Min Chul; Jeong, Hyeon; Son, Hwancheol

2017-09-01

Many studies on sexual attitudes and behavior have been performed to improve sexual health. To evaluate changing trends in Korean female sexual life and attitudes in an internet-based survey at 10-year intervals. The survey was targeted toward 20- to 59-year-old women who were asked to complete the questionnaire only if they were sexually active. The survey contained 110 questions about demographic statistics, sexual life, and attitudes that were crafted based on the 2004 study. Results of the 2004 study vs those of the 2014 study. In total, 516 women participated in the study; the questionnaire response rate was 16.0%. The mean frequency of intercourse (FOI) per month was 3.46 ± 2.56 in 2014 vs 5.34 ± 3.84 in 2004. Women in their 20s and 30s in 2014 reported a lower mean FOI than those in 2004. There was no significant difference in the mean FOI in 2004 vs 2014 for women who in their 40s. Risk factors for lower FOI were being older, being single, and having dyspareunia. Most Korean women had positive attitudes toward sex (3.2 ± 0.6 of 5) and considered it as important (3.3 ± 0.7 of 5) as those surveyed in 2004. However, women 20 to 39 years old had less positive attitudes toward sex than in the past decade. Women in their 40s were more active and had more conversations with their partners. Of women using contraceptives, 63.8% were found to use less effective methods, such as intercourse withdrawal and the fertility awareness method. Assessment of changing trends in Korean female sexual life, attitudes, and contraceptive methods could help to establish proper national sexual education programs and campaigns. This study was not a cohort study, because subjects in the 2014 were not identical to those in the 2004 study. Nevertheless, we applied the same inclusion and exclusion criteria for this internet survey, a suitable tool to evaluate the sex life of women, which is often considered a sensitive and private issue in Asian culture. Compared with the 2004 survey, young Korean women had fewer sexual relationships and had a less positive attitude toward sex. In addition, many women used less effective methods of contraception. Park J, Min B, Shin H, et al. A 10-Year Interval Study About the Sexual Life and Attitudes of Korean Women: The Korean Internet Sexuality Survey (KISS) 2014, Part 2. J Sex Med 2017;14:1142-1151. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Sexual Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Publication Trends Over 55 Years of Behavioral Genetic Research.

PubMed

Ayorech, Ziada; Selzam, Saskia; Smith-Woolley, Emily; Knopik, Valerie S; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; DeFries, John C; Plomin, Robert

2016-09-01

We document the growth in published papers on behavioral genetics for 5-year intervals from 1960 through 2014. We used 1861 papers published in Behavior Genetics to train our search strategy which, when applied to Ovid PsychINFO, selected more than 45,000 publications. Five trends stand out: (1) the number of behavioral genetic publications has grown enormously; nearly 20,000 papers were published in 2010-2014. (2) The number of human quantitative genetic (QG) publications (e.g., twin and adoption studies) has steadily increased with more than 3000 papers published in 2010-2014. (3) The number of human molecular genetic (MG) publications increased substantially from about 2000 in 2000-2004 to 5000 in 2005-2009 to 9000 in 2010-2014. (4) Nonhuman publications yielded similar trends. (5) Although there has been exponential growth in MG publications, both human and nonhuman QG publications continue to grow. A searchable resource of this corpus of behavioral genetic papers is freely available online at http://www.teds.ac.uk/public_datasets.html and will be updated annually.

Temporal trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia (1996-2009): a population-based study in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Vigod, Simone N; Seeman, Mary V; Ray, Joel G; Anderson, Geoffrey M; Dennis, Cindy Lee; Grigoriadis, Sophie; Gruneir, Andrea; Kurdyak, Paul A; Rochon, Paula A

2012-08-01

There is substantial evidence that women with schizophrenia in many parts of the world have fewer children than their peers. Our objective was to analyze recent trends in general and age-specific fertility rates among women with schizophrenia in Ontario, Canada. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional population-based study from 1996 to 2009 using population-based linked administrative databases for the entire province of Ontario. Women aged 15-49 years were classified into schizophrenia and non-schizophrenia groups in each successive 12-month period. Annual general and age-specific fertility rates were derived. The general fertility rate (GFR) among women with schizophrenia was 1.16 times higher in 2007-2009 than in 1996-1998 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.31). The annual GFR ratio of women with vs. without schizophrenia was 0.41 (95% CI 0.36-0.47) in 2009, which was slightly higher than the same ratio in 1996 of 0.30 (95% CI 0.25-0.35). Annual age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) increased over time among women with schizophrenia aged 20-24, 25-29, 35-39 and 40-44 years, but the increase was not always statistically significant. Among women aged 20-24 years, the ASFR ratio in women with vs. without schizophrenia was not significant by the end of the study period (0.93, 95% CI 0.70-1.22). The general fertility rate among women with schizophrenia appears to have increased modestly over the past 13 years. Clinical care and health policy should consider new strategies that focus on the mental health of women with schizophrenia as new mothers, while optimizing healthy pregnancies and child rearing. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional Polymorphisms of Base Excision Repair Genes XRCC1 and APEX1 Predict Risk of Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients With Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Definitive Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin Ming; Liao Zhongxing; Liu Zhensheng

2011-11-01

Purpose: To explore whether functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of base-excision repair genes are predictors of radiation treatment-related pneumonitis (RP), we investigated associations between functional SNPs of ADPRT, APEX1, and XRCC1 and RP development. Methods and Materials: We genotyped SNPs of ADPRT (rs1136410 [V762A]), XRCC1 (rs1799782 [R194W], rs25489 [R280H], and rs25487 [Q399R]), and APEX1 (rs1130409 [D148E]) in 165 patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who received definitive chemoradiation therapy. Results were assessed by both Logistic and Cox regression models for RP risk. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for the cumulative RP probability by the genotypes. Results: We found that SNPsmore » of XRCC1 Q399R and APEX1 D148E each had a significant effect on the development of Grade {>=}2 RP (XRCC1: AA vs. GG, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.97; APEX1: GG vs. TT, adjusted HR = 3.61, 95% CI, 1.64-7.93) in an allele-dose response manner (Trend tests: p = 0.040 and 0.001, respectively). The number of the combined protective XRCC1 A and APEX1 T alleles (from 0 to 4) also showed a significant trend of predicting RP risk (p = 0.001). Conclusions: SNPs of the base-excision repair genes may be biomarkers for susceptibility to RP. Larger prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.« less

Combined use of field and laboratory testing to predict preferred flow paths in an heterogeneous aquifer.

PubMed

Gierczak, R F D; Devlin, J F; Rudolph, D L

2006-01-05

Elevated nitrate concentrations within a municipal water supply aquifer led to pilot testing of a field-scale, in situ denitrification technology based on carbon substrate injections. In advance of the pilot test, detailed characterization of the site was undertaken. The aquifer consisted of complex, discontinuous and interstratified silt, sand and gravel units, similar to other well studied aquifers of glaciofluvial origin, 15-40 m deep. Laboratory and field tests, including a conservative tracer test, a pumping test, a borehole flowmeter test, grain-size analysis of drill cuttings and core material, and permeameter testing performed on core samples, were performed on the most productive depth range (27-40 m), and the results were compared. The velocity profiles derived from the tracer tests served as the basis for comparison with other methods. The spatial variation in K, based on grain-size analysis, using the Hazen method, were poorly correlated with the breakthrough data. Trends in relative hydraulic conductivity (K/K(avg)) from permeameter testing compared somewhat better. However, the trends in transient drawdown with depth, measured in multilevel sampling points, corresponded particularly well with those of solute mass flux. Estimates of absolute K, based on standard pumping test analysis of the multilevel drawdown data, were inversely correlated with the tracer test data. The inverse nature of the correlation was attributed to assumptions in the transient drawdown packages that were inconsistent with the variable diffusivities encountered at the scale of the measurements. Collectively, the data showed that despite a relatively low variability in K within the aquifer under study (within a factor of 3), water and solute mass fluxes were concentrated in discrete intervals that could be targeted for later bioremediation.

Impact of an evidence-based guideline on the management of community-acquired bacterial meningitis: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Costerus, J M; Brouwer, M C; Bijlsma, M W; Tanck, M W; van der Ende, A; van de Beek, D

2016-11-01

To study the impact of an evidence-based guideline on the management of community-acquired bacterial meningitis. We performed an interrupted time series analysis in a prospective nationwide cohort study from 2006 to 2015. The guideline stresses the importance of cranial imaging before lumbar puncture (LP) in selected patients based on clinical criteria, and early treatment with amoxicillin and a third-generation cephalosporin for adults with suspected community-acquired bacterial meningitis. The guideline was published in April 2013. We included 1326 episodes before and 210 episodes after guideline introduction. Cranial imaging was performed before LP in 497 (84%) of 591 episodes with clinical criteria warranting computed tomography (CT). The guideline did not improve this (increase of 2%; 95% confidence interval (CI), -15 to 19). Without these criteria, imaging before LP occurred in 606 (67%) of 900 episodes, also without effect of the guideline (increase of 1%; 95% CI, -25 to 28). The estimate of effect of the guideline for treatment with the recommended antibiotic regimen was an increase of 19.5% (95% CI, 13.5 to 25.5), and there was a trend towards more frequent initiation of treatment before CT. There was no association between delay in antibiotic treatment due to imaging before LP and unfavourable outcome (odds ratio, 1.14; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.52). Cranial imaging is performed before LP in the majority of patients with bacterial meningitis, irrespective of guideline indications. The guideline introduction was associated with a trend towards early initiation of treatment before imaging and with increased adherence to antibiotic policy. Copyright © 2016 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Global Incidence of Appendicitis: A Systematic Review of Population-based Studies.

PubMed

Ferris, Mollie; Quan, Samuel; Kaplan, Belle S; Molodecky, Natalie; Ball, Chad G; Chernoff, Greg W; Bhala, Nij; Ghosh, Subrata; Dixon, Elijah; Ng, Siew; Kaplan, Gilaad G

2017-08-01

We compared the incidence of appendicitis or appendectomy across the world and evaluated temporal trends. Population-based studies reported the incidence of appendicitis. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for population-based studies reporting the incidence of appendicitis or appendectomy. Time trends were explored using Poisson regression and reported as annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). APC were stratified by time periods and pooled using random effects models. Incidence since 2000 was pooled for regions in the Western world. The search retrieved 10,247 citations with 120 studies reporting on the incidence of appendicitis or appendectomy. During the 21st century the pooled incidence of appendicitis or appendectomy (in per 100,000 person-years) was 100 (95% CI: 91, 110) in Northern America, and the estimated number of cases in 2015 was 378,614. The pooled incidence ranged from 105 in Eastern Europe to 151 in Western Europe. In Western countries, the incidence of appendectomy steadily decreased since 1990 (APC after 1989=-1.54; 95% CI: -2.22, -0.86), whereas the incidence of appendicitis stabilized (APC=-0.36; 95% CI: -0.97, 0.26) for both perforated (APC=0.95; 95% CI: -0.25, 2.17) and nonperforated appendicitis (APC=0.44; 95% CI: -0.84, 1.73). In the 21st century, the incidence of appendicitis or appendectomy is high in newly industrialized countries in Asia (South Korea pooled: 206), the Middle East (Turkey pooled: 160), and Southern America (Chile: 202). Appendicitis is a global disease. The incidence of appendicitis is stable in most Western countries. Data from newly industrialized countries is sparse, but suggests that appendicitis is rising rapidly.

Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

2015-10-01

This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values <0.05 were considered significant. A total of 40 623 cases were recorded. The total stroke incidence fell by ≈12.0%, and case fatality fell by 17.2% in the study. Declining trends in stroke incidence were stronger in women (female: -2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], -3.43 to -2.44; male: -1.80; 95% CI, -2.58 to -1.02); in the older age groups (≥65 years: -3.62; 95% CI, -4.30 to -2.94; 50-64 years: -1.26; 95% CI, -1.97 to -0.55; <50 years: 3.33; 95% CI, 1.49 to 5.20), in Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Elevated lung cancer in younger adults and low concentrations of arsenic in water.

PubMed

Steinmaus, Craig; Ferreccio, Catterina; Yuan, Yan; Acevedo, Johanna; González, Francisca; Perez, Liliana; Cortés, Sandra; Balmes, John R; Liaw, Jane; Smith, Allan H

2014-12-01

Arsenic concentrations greater than 100 µg/L in drinking water are a known cause of cancer, but the risks associated with lower concentrations are less well understood. The unusual geology and good information on past exposure found in northern Chile are key advantages for investigating the potential long-term effects of arsenic. We performed a case-control study of lung cancer from 2007 to 2010 in areas of northern Chile that had a wide range of arsenic concentrations in drinking water. Previously, we reported evidence of elevated cancer risks at arsenic concentrations greater than 100 µg/L. In the present study, we restricted analyses to the 92 cases and 288 population-based controls who were exposed to concentrations less than 100 µg/L. After adjustment for age, sex, and smoking behavior, these exposures from 40 or more years ago resulted in odds ratios for lung cancer of 1.00, 1.43 (90% confidence interval: 0.82, 2.52), and 2.01 (90% confidence interval: 1.14, 3.52) for increasing tertiles of arsenic exposure, respectively (P for trend = 0.02). Mean arsenic water concentrations in these tertiles were 6.5, 23.0, and 58.6 µg/L. For subjects younger than 65 years of age, the corresponding odds ratios were 1.00, 1.62 (90% confidence interval: 0.67, 3.90), and 3.41 (90% confidence interval: 1.51, 7.70). Adjustments for occupation, fruit and vegetable intake, and socioeconomic status had little impact on the results. These findings provide new evidence that arsenic water concentrations less than 100 µg/L are associated with higher risks of lung cancer. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Endoscopists can sustain high performance for the optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps following standardized and continued training.

PubMed

McGill, Sarah K; Soetikno, Roy; Rastogi, Amit; Rouse, Robert V; Sato, Tohru; Bansal, Ajay; McQuaid, Kenneth; Kaltenbach, Tonya

2015-03-01

The learning curve for optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps with the narrow-band imaging (NBI) is unknown. To forego histological analysis of diminutive polyps diagnosed optically with high confidence, guidelines recommend ≥ 90 % negative predictive value (NPV) and concordance of ≥ 90 % for surveillance intervals predicted optically and histologically. We aimed to study the learning of optical diagnosis for colorectal polyps. We studied five endoscopists as part of a randomized multisite trial comparing near-focus and standard-focus views for optical diagnosis. They trained using a computer-based module, followed by 10 real-time colonoscopies with pathology correlation. Endoscopists then optically diagnosed and resected all the polyps found during 558 consecutive colonoscopies, and diagnoses were compared with pathology. Endoscopists repeated the training module at the study midpoint. NPV and concordance of surveillance intervals for diminutive polyps diagnosed optically with high confidence were measured over time. Endoscopists showed high diagnostic performance, with a nonsignificant trend toward higher NPV in the second half of the study. For the 445 polyps in the standard-view arm, the NPV was 88.0 % (95 %CI 75.7 % - 95.5 %) in the first half and 95.8 % (88.3 % - 99.1 %) in the second; P = 0.7. Three endoscopists in the first half and four in the second achieved > 90 % NPV. Concordance of surveillance intervals was identical in the first and second halves at 98.1 % (95 %CI 93.3 % - 99.8 %). High NPV for the prediction of non-neoplasms with NBI was achieved and maintained in this group of endoscopists who participated in standardized and continued training. Both NPV and surveillance interval agreement indicated high performance in the optical diagnosis of colorectal polyps and exceeded thresholds. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

[Moisture sources of Guangzhou during the freezing disaster period in 2008 indicated by the stable isotopes of precipitation].

PubMed

Liao, Cong-Yun; Zhong, Wei; Ma, Qiao-Hong; Xue, Ji-Bin; Yin, Huan-Ling; Long, Kun

2012-04-01

From April 2007 to June 2008, stable isotope samples of all single precipitations were collected at the intervals of 5-30 min. We choose five single precipitations in Guangzhou city that happened during the freezing disaster event (from Jan. 10 to Feb. 2, 2008) in South China, aiming to investigate the variation of stable isotopes under the extremely climatic conditions and its controlling factors. The results show that the values of deltaD and delta18O in precipitations drop significantly during this freezing disaster. The analyses of the d-excess and LMWL indicate the abnormal oceanic moisture sources. Air mass trajectory tracking shows the moisture sources were characterized by the mixture of inland and marine water vapors during the freezing disaster peak period, while the long-distance oceanic moisture sources is the dominate one. Changes of stable isotope in single rain event during the freezing disaster shows three different trends, i. e, Up trend, V-shaped trend and W-shaped trend, which may be resulted from the re-evaporation, re-condensation and the related precipitation types in association with the different vapor sources and precipitation conditions.

Variability of higher order wavefront aberrations after blinks.

PubMed

Hagyó, Krisztina; Csákány, Béla; Lang, Zsolt; Németh, János

2009-01-01

To investigate the rapid alterations in value and fluctuation of ocular wavefront aberrations during the interblink interval. Forty-two volunteers were examined with a WASCA Wavefront Analyzer (Carl Zeiss Meditec AG) using modified software. For each subject, 150 images (about 6 frames/second) were registered during an interblink period. The outcome measures were spherical and cylindrical refraction and root-mean-square (RMS) values for spherical, coma, and total higher order aberrations. Fifth order polynomials were fitted to the data and the fluctuation trends of the parameters were determined. We calculated the prevalence of the trends with an early local minimum (type 1). The tear production status (Schirmer test) and tear film break-up time (BUT) were also measured. Fluctuation trends with an early minimum (type 1) were significantly more frequent than trends with an early local maximum (type 2) for total higher order aberrations RMS (P=.036). The incidence of type 1 fluctuation trends was significantly greater for coma and total higher order aberrations RMS (P=.041 and P=.003, respectively) in subjects with normal results in the BUT or Schirmer test than in those with abnormal results. In the normal subjects, the first minimum of type 1 RMS fluctuation trends occurred, on average, between 3.8 and 5.1 seconds after blink. We suggest that wavefront aberrations can be measured most accurately at the time after blink when they exhibit a decreased degree of dispersion. We recommend that a snapshot of wavefront measurements be made 3 to 5 seconds after blink.

Prostate cancer mortality in Serbia, 1991-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2016-06-01

The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze the mortality trend of prostate cancer in Serbia (excluding the Kosovo and Metohia) from 1991 to 2010. The age-standardized prostate cancer mortality rates (per 100 000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the World Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed for trend using the joinpoint regression analysis. Significantly increased trend in prostate cancer mortality was recorded in Serbia continuously from 1991 to 2010 (AAPC = +2.2, 95% CI = 1.6-2.9). Mortality rates for prostate cancer showed a significant upward trend in all men aged 50 and over: AAPC (95% CI) was +1.9% (0.1-3.8) in aged 50-59 years, +1.7% (0.9-2.6) in aged 60-69 years, +2.0% (1.2-2.9) in aged 70-79 years and +3.5% (2.4-4.6) in aged 80 years and over. According to comparability test, prostate cancer mortality trends in majority of age groups were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P > 0.05). The increasing prostate cancer mortality trend implies the need for more effective measures of prevention, screening and early diagnosis, as well as prostate cancer treatment in Serbia. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Influence of World Thrombosis Day on digital information seeking on venous thrombosis: a Google Trends study.

PubMed

Scheres, L J J; Lijfering, W M; Middeldorp, S; Cannegieter, S C

2016-12-01

Essentials In 2014, World Thrombosis Day (WTD) was initiated to increase global awareness of thrombosis. Google Trends can be used freely to monitor digital information seeking behavior. We used Google Trends data to assess the impact of WTD on internet searches on venous thrombosis. The WTD period was associated with more searches on thrombosis compared to control periods. Background World Thrombosis Day (WTD) was launched in 2014 and is to be held every year to increase global awareness of venous thrombosis. Measuring the impact of health awareness days is challenging; however, use of internet-based data seems promising. Methods Google Trends data were used to quantify digital searches for 'venous thrombosis' worldwide and 'trombose' in the Netherlands. The relative search volume (RSV), which is the proportion of the term of interest amongst all Google searches for a specific region and timeframe was used. Mean differences for 4 weeks surrounding WTD (period of interest) and the remaining weeks of the year (control period) were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). This was done for 2014, 2015 and 2009-2013 (control years). Results and discussion Mean differences in RSV for worldwide searches were 2.9 (95% CI, -8.2, 14.1) in 2014 and 10.5 (95% CI, 0.4, 20.5) in 2015. These figures were 15.3 (95% CI, 4.7, 25.8) and 15.9 (95% CI, 7.8, 24.1) for the Netherlands, respectively. Relatively, this corresponds to an increase in RSV of 3.9% and 13.9% for 2014 and 2015 worldwide and a 21.9% and 23.3% increase for 2014 and 2015 in the Netherlands. There was one control year with an increase in RSV in the WTD period. Conclusion In 2014 and 2015 WTD was associated with an increase in digital information seeking on venous thrombosis worldwide. This association was more pronounced in 2015 than in 2014. © 2016 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Comparison of SPI and SPEI indices for Drought Characterization under Climate Change Scenario in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, V.; Jain, M. K.

2017-12-01

Many drought indices are available for quantifying and characterizing the drought events. Selection of a particular drought index could influence the outcome of the study. In this study, we compared two drought indices namely, Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under climate change condition. Data from 7 RCM models namely, CCCma-CanESM2, CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MOHC-HadGEM2, MIROC-MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR for RCP 4.5 scenario have been used to calculate 12 month SPI and SPEI values. L-moments which provides robust distribution parameter estimation, have been used to identify best fit distribution for projected data at each grid point for each month. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test have been used to detect trends in drought severity, duration, peak, and interval between drought events. Results of this study reveal that SPI shows decreasing trends in drought severity, duration and peak with negative Sen's slope, however, the SPEI shows increasing trends of severity, duration and peak with a positive Sen's slope for almost all over India. The analysis reveals that projected percentage of drought affected area based on SPI in the first half of the 21st century is higher compared to those obtained using SPEI, however for the second half of the 21st century, the projected drought affected computed using SPEI is higher compared to the corresponding area obtained using SPI. Decrease in droughts severity, duration and peaks in SPI analysis could be attributed to projected increase in monsoon rainfall in Indian Subcontinent during second half of 21st century however, SPI was found incapable to account the increase in temperature thus neglecting the drying due to increased evapotranspiration whereas SPEI shows significant drying in Indian subcontinent on account of increasing trend in temperature observed in projected future RCM scenarios.

Increasing trends in the incidence and prevalence rates of type 1 diabetes among children and adolescents in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Fazeli Farsani, Soulmaz; Souverein, Patrick C; van der Vorst, Marja M J; Knibbe, Catherijne A J; Herings, Ron M C; de Boer, Anthonius; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K

2016-02-01

To assess the trends in the incidence and prevalence rates of type 1 diabetes (T1D) among children and adolescents in the Netherlands. A population-based cohort study was conducted in the Dutch PHARMO record linkage system (1998-2011). All children and adolescents aged ≤19 yr with at least one insulin dispensing (as a proxy for T1D) were identified and the numbers of incident and prevalent cases (numerators) were calculated. Overall age-adjusted (0-19 yr) incidence and prevalence rates together with age- and sex-specific rates of T1D and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using data from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics as denominator. Trends over time were assessed using Joinpoint regression software (National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA). In 2011, the overall age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates of T1D were 25.2/100 000 (95% CI, 23.7-26.8) person-years (PY) and 174.4/100 000 (95% CI, 170.2-178.5) children, respectively. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the overall age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rate was 3.7% (95% CI, 1.8-5.7) and 3.8% (95% CI, 2.4-5.2), respectively. While during the study period the largest increases in the incidence and prevalence rates of T1D were observed for the oldest age groups (10-14 and 15-19 yr), a decreasing trend was detected for the 0- to 4-yr-old category (with AAPCs of -1.8 (95% CI, -9.9 to 7.1) and -6.9% (95% CI, -11.5 to -2.1) for incidence and prevalence, respectively). Age-adjusted incidence (1999-2011) and prevalence rates (1998-2011) of T1D in Dutch children (aged 0-19 yr) continued to increase and a shift was observed to a later onset of the disease. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Serum Vitamin D, Vitamin D Binding Protein, and Risk of Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Anic, Gabriella M.; Weinstein, Stephanie J.; Mondul, Alison M.; Männistö, Satu; Albanes, Demetrius

2014-01-01

Background We previously reported a positive association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and colorectal cancer risk. To further elucidate this association, we examined the molar ratio of 25(OH)D to vitamin D binding protein (DBP), the primary 25(OH)D transport protein, and whether DBP modified the association between 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer risk. Methods In a nested case-control study within the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study, controls were 1∶1 matched to 416 colorectal cancer cases based on age and date of blood collection. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for quartiles of 25(OH)D, DBP, and the molar ratio of 25(OH)D:DBP, a proxy for free, unbound circulating 25(OH)D. Results Comparing highest to lowest quartiles, DBP was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.58, 1.42, p for trend  = 0.58); however, a positive risk association was observed for the molar ratio of 25(OH)D:DBP (OR = 1.44; 95% CI: 0.92, 2.26, p for trend  = 0.04). In stratified analyses, the positive association between 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer was stronger among men with DBP levels above the median (OR = 1.89; 95% CI: 1.07, 3.36, p for trend  = 0.01) than below the median (OR = 1.20; 95% CI: 0.68, 2.12, p for trend  = 0.87), although the interaction was not statistically significant (p for interaction  = 0.24). Conclusion Circulating DBP may influence the association between 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer in male smokers, with the suggestion of a stronger positive association in men with higher DBP concentrations. This finding should be examined in other populations, especially those that include women and non-smokers. PMID:25036524

National trend in congenital heart disease mortality in China during 2003 to 2010: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hu, Zhan; Yuan, Xin; Rao, Keqin; Zheng, Zhe; Hu, Shengshou

2014-08-01

Previous studies suggest that mortality from congenital heart diseases (CHDs) is declining in the United States. But we do not know what the CHD mortality trend is in China, especially the rural versus urban patterns. Our study aimed to determine recent changes in death caused by CHD in China and describe CHD mortality in rural and urban Chinese populations. The data source was the China Ministry of Health 2003 to 2010 annual reports. Mortality was defined as death caused by CHD. Mortality rates for each year were calculated per 10,000,000 person-years. Poisson regression and descriptive analyses were conducted for overall trend and subgroup analysis was conducted by sex, age, and urban versus rural residency to understand potential disparities in mortality. From 2003 to 2010, the overall mortality rate increased from 141 per 10,000,000 person-years in 2003 to 229 per 10,000,000 person-years in 2010, a 62.4% relative increase. This represents a region-sex adjusted annual increase of 9% (incidence rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.10). The increase in CHD mortality was not uniformly observed across age groups, urban versus rural residence, and sex. The relative increases were 65.3%, 212.2%, and 131.7% for ages 1 to 10 years, 21 to 64 years, and 65 years or older groups, respectively. Urban areas had a relative increase of 154.5% versus 5.3% for rural areas. Females who lived in an urban environment had a relative increase of 313.5%. Our observation showed an obvious increasing trend of CHD mortality in China. What is more, the increase in CHD mortality was not uniformly observed across subgroups. Such information is needed for strategy-making procedures. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

[Trends in mortality from scorpion stings in Mexico, 1979-2003].

PubMed

Celis, Alfredo; Gaxiola-Robles, Ramón; Sevilla-Godínez, Elizabeth; Orozco Valerio, María de Jesús; Armas, Jesús

2007-06-01

To describe the trends in mortality from scorpion stings in Mexico as a whole and in each of its states for the period of 1979 to 2003. We estimated the crude and standardized mortality rates due to scorpion stings and the trends during the period studied based on official mortality data for Mexico, using the codes (E905.2 and X22, respectively) from the 9th and 10th editions of the International Classification of Diseases. The results were stratified by age group. The frequencies of deaths from scorpion stings were compared using relative risk (RR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Between 1979 and 2003 in Mexico, 6,077 deaths from scorpion stings were registered. A statistically significant downward trend was found in standardized mortality rates (beta = -0.195; P < or = 0.001), with a total reduction of 86.5% for the period of 2001-2003 versus 1979-1982. For the 2001-2003 period, the highest mortality rates were in children under 1 year of age (7.07 per 1,000,000), children 1 to 4 years old (3.78 per 1,000,000), persons 60 and older (0.84 per 1,000,000), and males (0.81 per 1,000,000). Persons in communities with fewer than 2,500 inhabitants had a relative risk that was 11.8 times (95% CI: 7.86 to 17.72) that found in communities with more than 20,000 inhabitants. The states with the highest mortality rates were in the central and western regions of the country. Despite the sustained decline in the number of deaths from scorpion stings in the last 20 years in Mexico, there is still an important public health problem. The groups that are most affected are children under 5 and the elderly. Measures should be taken so that in all communities, especially small ones, adequate resources and information are available to provide for the prompt care of persons who suffer a scorpion sting.

Intakes of red meat, processed meat, and meat-mutagens increase lung cancer risk

PubMed Central

Lam, Tram Kim; Cross, Amanda J.; Consonni, Dario; Randi, Giorgia; Bagnardi, Vincenzo; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Caporaso, Neil E.; Sinha, Rashmi; Subar, Amy F.; Landi, Maria Teresa

2009-01-01

Red and processed meat intake may increase lung cancer risk. However, the epidemiologic evidence is inconsistent and few studies have evaluated the role of meat-mutagens formed during high cooking temperatures. We investigated the association of red meat, processed meat, and meat-mutagen intake with lung cancer risk in Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE), a population-based case-control study. Primary lung cancer cases (n=2101) were recruited from 13 hospitals within the Lombardy region of Italy examining ~80% of the cases from the area. Non-cancer population controls (n=2120), matched to cases on gender, residence, and age, were randomly selected from the same catchment area. Diet was assessed in 1903 cases and 2073 controls, and used in conjunction with a meat-mutagen database to estimate intake of heterocyclic amines and benzo[a]pyrene. Multivariable odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sex-specific tertiles of intake were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. Red and processed meat were positively associated with lung cancer risk (highest-versus-lowest tertile: OR=1.8; 95% CI=1.5–2.2; p-trend<0.001 and OR=1.7; 95% CI=1.4–2.1; p-trend<0.001, respectively); the risks were strongest among never smokers (OR=2.4, 95% CI=1.4–4.0, p-trend=0.001 and OR=2.5, 95% CI=1.5–4.2, p-trend=0.001, respectively). Heterocyclic amines and benzo[a]pyrene were significantly associated with increased risk of lung cancer. When separated by histology, significant positive associations for both meat groups were restricted to adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, but not small cell carcinoma of the lung. In summary, red meat, processed meat, and meat-mutagens were independently associated with increased risk of lung cancer. PMID:19141639

Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

2014-01-01

Background The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44–79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%–51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%–94%) and 73% (CI, 48%–86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Conclusions Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006–2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the possibility that the decrease is due to other factors. PMID:25406083

Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

PubMed

Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

2013-04-09

To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

Prenatal and childhood antecedents of suicide: 50-year follow-up of the 1958 British Birth Cohort study.

PubMed

Geoffroy, M-C; Gunnell, D; Power, C

2014-04-01

We aimed to elucidate early antecedents of suicide including possible mediation by early child development. Using the 1958 birth cohort, based on British births in March 1958, individuals were followed up to adulthood. We used data collected at birth and at age 7 years from various informants. Suicides occurring up to 31 May 2009 were identified from linked national death certificates. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate risk factors. Altogether 12399 participants (n = 44 suicides) had complete data. The strongest prenatal risk factors for suicide were: birth order, with risk increasing in later-born children [p trend = 0.063, adjusted hazard ratio (HR)], e.g. for fourth- or later-born children [HR = 2.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-5.75]; young maternal age (HR = 1.18, 95% CI 0.34-4.13 for ⩽19 years and HR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.19-0.91 for >29 years, p trend = 0.034); and low (<2.5 kg) birth weight (HR = 2.48, 95% CI 1.03-5.95). The strongest risk factors at 7 years were externalizing problems in males (HR = 2.96, 95% CI 1.03-8.47, p trend = 0.050) and number of emotional adversities (i.e. parental death, neglected appearance, domestic tension, institutional care, contact with social services, parental divorce/separation and bullying) for which there was a graded association with risk of suicide (p trend = 0.033); the highest (HR = 3.12, 95% CI 1.01-9.62) was for persons with three or more adversities. Risk factors recorded at birth and at 7 years may influence an individual's long-term risk of suicide, suggesting that trajectories leading to suicide have roots in early life. Some factors are amenable to intervention, but for others a better understanding of causal mechanisms may provide new insights for intervention to reduce suicide risk.

Declining rates of sterilization procedures in Western Australian women from 1990 to 2008: the relationship with age, hospital type, and government policy changes.

PubMed

Jama-Alol, Khadra A; Bremner, Alexandra P; Stewart, Louise M; Kemp-Casey, Anna; Malacova, Eva; Moorin, Rachael; Shirangi, Adeleh; Preen, David B

2016-09-01

To describe trends in age-specific incidence rates of female sterilization (FS) procedures in Western Australia and to evaluate the effects of the introduction of government-subsidized contraceptive methods and the implementation of the Australian government's baby bonus policy on FS rates. Population-based retrospective descriptive study. Not applicable. All women ages 15-49 undergoing an FS procedure during the period January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2008 (n = 47,360 procedures). Records from statutory statewide data collections of hospitals separations and births were extracted and linked. Trends in FS procedures and the influence on these trends of the introduction of government policies: subsidization of long-acting reversible contraceptives (Implanon and Mirena) and the Australian baby bonus initiative. The annual incidence rate of FS procedures declined from 756.9 per 100,000 women in 1990 to 155.2 per 100,000 women in 2008. Compared with the period 1990-1994, women ages 30-39 years were 47% less likely (rate ratio [RR] = 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.72) to undergo sterilization during the period 2005-2008. Adjusting for overall trend, there were significant decreases in FS rates after government subsidization of Implanon (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97) and Mirena (RR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.73-0.91) and the introduction of the baby bonus (RR = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.61-0.81). Rates of female sterilization procedures in Western Australia have declined substantially across all age groups in the last two decades. Women's decisions to undergo sterilization procedures may be influenced by government interventions that increase access to long-term reversible contraceptives or encourage childbirth. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai, China from 1973 to 2009.

PubMed

Qi, Di; Wu, Chunxiao; Liu, Fang; Gu, Kai; Shi, Zhuqing; Lin, Xiaoling; Tao, Sha; Xu, Wanghong; Brendler, Charles B; Zheng, Ying; Xu, Jianfeng

2015-10-01

The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer (PCa) were historically low in China but have increased considerably in recent years. This study aimed to describe the detailed trend of PCa incidence and mortality in Shanghai, China. Incidence and mortality data of PCa in urban Shanghai during 1973 and 2009 were collected by the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Age standardized rates (ASR) of incidence and mortality were calculated based on the 1966 world standard population. Join point regression analysis was used to describe the trends and to identify specific time points when significant changes in incidence and mortality occurred. The PCa incidence in Shanghai increased ~sixfold from an ASR of 2.13/100,000 in 1973 to 12.96/100,000 in 2009, and its rank ascended from the 17th to the 4th most common cancer during the period. The PCa mortality in Shanghai increased threefold from an ASR of 1.61/100,000 in 1973 to 4.97/100,000 in 2009, and its rank ascended from the 17th to the 6th most deadly cancer during this period. More specifically, the ASR of incidence increased slightly before 1991, sharply during1991-2004, and slightly after 2004, with annual percent changes (APC) of 2.2% (95% confidence interval: 0.3%-4.3%), 13.2% (11.4%-15.0%), and 3.2% (-0.3%-6.8%), respectively. The mortality trend was stable before 1985 and increased slowly but steadily after 1985, with APC of -0.6% (-4.4%-3.3%) and 5.3% (4.7%-6.0%), respectively. The increasing incidence and mortality rates were primarily observed in men ≥ 70 years. The incidence and mortality of PCa have increased significantly in Shanghai, China over the past four decades. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of peer support on prevention of postnatal depression among high risk women: multisite randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Dennis, C-L; Hodnett, E; Kenton, L; Weston, J; Zupancic, J; Stewart, D E; Kiss, A

2009-01-15

To evaluate the effectiveness of telephone based peer support in the prevention of postnatal depression. Multisite randomised controlled trial. Seven health regions across Ontario, Canada. 701 women in the first two weeks postpartum identified as high risk for postnatal depression with the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale and randomised with an internet based randomisation service. Proactive individualised telephone based peer (mother to mother) support, initiated within 48-72 hours of randomisation, provided by a volunteer recruited from the community who had previously experienced and recovered from self reported postnatal depression and attended a four hour training session. Edinburgh postnatal depression scale, structured clinical interview-depression, state-trait anxiety inventory, UCLA loneliness scale, and use of health services. After web based screening of 21 470 women, 701 (72%) eligible mothers were recruited. A blinded research nurse followed up more than 85% by telephone, including 613 at 12 weeks and 600 at 24 weeks postpartum. At 12 weeks, 14% (40/297) of women in the intervention group and 25% (78/315) in the control group had an Edinburgh postnatal depression scale score >12 (chi(2)=12.5, P<0.001; number need to treat 8.8, 95% confidence interval 5.9 to 19.6; relative risk reduction 0.46, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.62). There was a positive trend in favour of the intervention group for maternal anxiety but not loneliness or use of health services. For ethical reasons, participants identified with clinical depression at 12 weeks were referred for treatment, resulting in no differences between groups at 24 weeks. Of the 221 women in the intervention group who received and evaluated their experience of peer support, over 80% were satisfied and would recommend this support to a friend. Telephone based peer support can be effective in preventing postnatal depression among women at high risk. ISRCTN 68337727.

Millisecond Pulsar Observation at CRL

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-11-01

32nd Annual Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) Meeting MILLISECOND PULSAR OBSERVATION AT CRL Y. Hanado, Y . Shibuya, M. Hosokawa, M. Sekido...status of millisecond pulsar timing observation at CRL.. Weekly observation of PSR1937+21 using the 34-m antenna at Kashima Space Research Center has...been on going since November 1997. Recently we eliminated systematic trends that were apparent in the data, and estimated the pulsar parameters of

Total carbon and nitrogen in mineral soil after 26 years of prescribed fire: Long Valley and Fort Valley Experimental Forests

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Sally M. Haase; Steven T. Overby

2008-01-01

Prescribed fire was introduced to high density ponderosa pine stands at Fort Valley and Long Valley Experimental Forests in 1976. This paper reports on mineral soil total carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) at Long Valley. Total soil C and N levels were highly variable and exhibited an increasing, but inconsistent, concentration trend related to burn interval. Total N ranged...