Selective exposure to information: how different modes of decision making affect subsequent confirmatory information processing.

PubMed

Fischer, Peter; Fischer, Julia; Weisweiler, Silke; Frey, Dieter

2010-12-01

We investigated whether different modes of decision making (deliberate, intuitive, distracted) affect subsequent confirmatory processing of decision-consistent and inconsistent information. Participants showed higher levels of confirmatory information processing when they made a deliberate or an intuitive decision versus a decision under distraction (Studies 1 and 2). As soon as participants have a cognitive (i.e., deliberate cognitive analysis) or affective (i.e., intuitive and gut feeling) reason for their decision, the subjective confidence in the validity of their decision increases, which results in increased levels of confirmatory information processing (Study 2). In contrast, when participants are distracted during decision making, they are less certain about the validity of their decision and thus are subsequently more balanced in the processing of decision-relevant information.

Age Differences in the Effects of Conscious and Unconscious Thought in Decision Making

PubMed Central

Queen, Tara L.; Hess, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

The roles of unconscious and conscious thought in decision making were investigated to examine both (a) boundary conditions associated with the efficacy of each type of thought and (b) age differences in intuitive versus deliberative thought. Participants were presented with two decision tasks, one requiring active deliberation and the other intuitive processing. Younger and older adults then engaged in conscious or unconscious thought processing before making a decision. A manipulation check revealed that younger adults were more accurate in their representations of the decision material than older adults, which accounted for much of the age-related variation in performance when the full sample was considered. When only considering accurate participants, decision making was best when there was congruence between the nature of the information and the thought condition. Thus, unconscious thought was more appropriate when the decision relied on intuitive rather than deliberative processing, whereas the converse was true with conscious thought. Although older adults displayed somewhat less efficient deliberative processing, their ability to process information at the intuitive level was relatively preserved. Additionally, both young and older adults displayed choice-supportive memory. PMID:20545411

Reforming Pentagon Decisionmaking

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

that people should make decisions as rationally as possible and that deviations from the rational ideal are undesirable. Recently, however...warfighting; therefore, a rational as opposed to an intuitive system makes sense for investment decisions . Third, many Pentagon planning problems... rational planning processes, consensus among experts is that people use both intuitive and rational techniques to make good decisions F E A T U R E

Pitting intuitive and analytical thinking against each other: the case of transitivity.

PubMed

Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Usher, Marius

2013-06-01

Identifying which thinking mode, intuitive or analytical, yields better decisions has been a major subject of inquiry by decision-making researchers. Yet studies show contradictory results. One possibility is that the ambiguity is due to the variability in experimental conditions across studies. Our hypothesis is that decision quality depends critically on the level of compatibility between the thinking mode employed in the decision and the nature of the decision-making task. In two experiments, we pitted intuition and analytical thinking against each other on tasks that were either mainly intuitive or mainly analytical. Thinking modes, as well as task characteristics, were manipulated in a factorial design, with choice transitivity as the dependent measure. Results showed higher choice consistency (transitivity) when thinking mode and the characteristics of the decision task were compatible.

Age differences in the effects of conscious and unconscious thought in decision making.

PubMed

Queen, Tara L; Hess, Thomas M

2010-06-01

The roles of unconscious and conscious thought in decision making were investigated to examine both (a) boundary conditions associated with the efficacy of each type of thought and (b) age differences in intuitive versus deliberative thought. Participants were presented with 2 decision tasks, one requiring active deliberation and the other intuitive processing. Young and older adults then engaged in conscious or unconscious thought processing before making a decision. A manipulation check revealed that young adults were more accurate in their representations of the decision material than older adults, which accounted for much of the age-related variation in performance when the full sample was considered. When only accurate participants were considered, decision making was best when there was congruence between the nature of the information and the thought condition. Thus, unconscious thought was more appropriate when participants relied on intuitive rather than deliberative processing to make their decision, whereas the converse was true with conscious thought. Although older adults displayed somewhat less efficient deliberative processing, their ability to process information at the intuitive level was relatively preserved. Additionally, both young and older adults displayed choice-supportive memory. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Risking Your Life without a Second Thought: Intuitive Decision-Making and Extreme Altruism

PubMed Central

Rand, David G.; Epstein, Ziv G.

2014-01-01

When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs), extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes. PMID:25333876

Risking your life without a second thought: intuitive decision-making and extreme altruism.

PubMed

Rand, David G; Epstein, Ziv G

2014-01-01

When faced with the chance to help someone in mortal danger, what is our first response? Do we leap into action, only later considering the risks to ourselves? Or must instinctive self-preservation be overcome by will-power in order to act? We investigate this question by examining the testimony of Carnegie Hero Medal Recipients (CHMRs), extreme altruists who risked their lives to save others. We collected published interviews with CHMRs where they described their decisions to help. We then had participants rate the intuitiveness versus deliberativeness of the decision-making process described in each CHMR statement. The statements were judged to be overwhelmingly dominated by intuition; to be significantly more intuitive than a set of control statements describing deliberative decision-making; and to not differ significantly from a set of intuitive control statements. This remained true when restricting to scenarios in which the CHMRs had sufficient time to reflect before acting if they had so chosen. Text-analysis software found similar results. These findings suggest that high-stakes extreme altruism may be largely motivated by automatic, intuitive processes.

The role of decision analysis in informed consent: choosing between intuition and systematicity.

PubMed

Ubel, P A; Loewenstein, G

1997-03-01

An important goal of informed consent is to present information to patients so that they can decide which medical option is best for them, according to their values. Research in cognitive psychology has shown that people are rapidly overwhelmed by having to consider more than a few options in making choices. Decision analysis provides a quantifiable way to assess patients' values, and it eliminates the burden of integrating these values with probabilistic information. In this paper we evaluate the relative importance of intuition and systematicity in informed consent. We point out that there is no gold standard for optimal decision making in decisions that hinge on patient values. We also point out that in some such situations it is too early to assume that the benefits of systematicity outweigh the benefits of intuition. Research is needed to address the question of which situations favor the use of intuitive approaches of decision making and which call for a more systematic approach.

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Decision making in midwifery: rationality and intuition.

PubMed

Steinhauer, Suyai

2015-04-01

Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.

Does intuition have a role in psychiatric diagnosis?

PubMed

Srivastava, Anil; Grube, Michael

2009-06-01

Psychiatric diagnosis is invariably guided by self-report. When such self-report is questioned, reliance on formalized testing predominates. The situation is less certain, however, when such methods and clinical "feel", or intuition, conflict. While many argue for the supremacy of actuarial methods, fields such as Management have increasingly emphasized the importance of intuition; Psychiatry, although with few objective tests and reliance on the clinical encounter, offers surprisingly few answers. We explore here the use of intuition in decision-making through a case example and suggest that it is not inferior to other diagnostic methods: intuition should be used to suggest, guide, and modify psychiatric diagnosis. Mostly, there is a need for greater discussion among Psychiatrists including consideration to the clinical, legal, and ethical implications of the use of intuition in psychiatric decision-making.

Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making

PubMed Central

Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

2015-01-01

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead. PMID:25999877

Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

PubMed

Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

2015-01-01

Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

Intuitive Choices Lead to Intensified Positive Emotions: An Overlooked Reason for "Intuition Bias"?

PubMed

Kirkebøen, Geir; Nordbye, Gro H H

2017-01-01

People have, for many well-documented reasons, a tendency to overemphasize their intuitions and to follow them, even when they should not. This "intuition bias" leads to several kinds of specific intuitive biases in judgments and decision making. Previous studies have shown that characteristics of the decision process have a tendency to "leak" into the experience of the choice outcome. We explore whether intuitive choices influence the experience of the choice outcomes differently from "non-intuitive," analytic choices. Since intuition is feeling based, we examine in particular if intuitive choices have stronger affective consequences than non-intuitive ones. Participants in two scenario studies ( N = 90; N = 126) rated the feelings of decision makers who experienced a conflict between two options, one intuitively appealing and another that appeared preferable on analytic grounds. Choosing the intuitive alternative was anticipated to lead to somewhat more regret after negative outcomes and, in particular, much more satisfaction with positive outcomes. In two autobiographical studies, one with psychology students ( N = 88) and the other with experienced engineers ( N = 99), participants were asked to provide examples of choice conflicts between an intuitive and a non-intuitive option from their own private or professional lives. Both groups showed a tendency to report stronger emotions, in particular positive, after intuitive choices. One well-established explanation for intuition bias focuses on the nature of people's anticipated negative counterfactual thoughts if their decisions were to turn out badly. The present data indicate that intuitive choices intensify positive emotions, anticipated and real, after successful outcomes much more than negative emotions after failures. Positive outcomes are also more commonly expected than negative ones, when we make choices. We argue that markedly amplified emotions, mediated by stronger personal involvement, in the positive outcomes of intuitive versus non-intuitive choices, is an overlooked reason for intuition bias.

Unpacking Intuition

PubMed Central

Seligman, Martin E.P.; Kahana, Michael

2009-01-01

Can intuition be taught? The way in which faces are recognized, the structure of natural classes, and the architecture of intuition may all be instances of the same process. The conjecture that intuition is a species of recognition memory implies that human intuitive decision making can be enormously enhanced by virtual simulation. PMID:20300491

When to Blink and when to Think: Preference for Intuitive Decisions Results in Faster and Better Tactical Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raab, Markus; Laborde, Sylvain

2011-01-01

Intuition is often considered an effective manner of decision making in sports. In this study we investigated whether a preference for intuition over deliberation results in faster and better lab-based choices in team handball attack situations with 54 male and female handball players of different expertise levels. We assumed that intuitive…

Decision Making Styles and Progress in Occupational Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

1984-01-01

Examined the role of rational, intuitive, and dependent decisional strategies in facilitating decisions about postcollege occupation among college students (N=71). Results indicated that the use of a dependent decision-making style was the single most powerful predictor of progress. (LLL)

From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

2010-01-01

Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an…

Social setting, intuition and experience in laboratory experiments interact to shape cooperative decision-making

PubMed Central

Capraro, Valerio; Cococcioni, Giorgia

2015-01-01

Recent studies suggest that cooperative decision-making in one-shot interactions is a history-dependent dynamic process: promoting intuition versus deliberation typically has a positive effect on cooperation (dynamism) among people living in a cooperative setting and with no previous experience in economic games on cooperation (history dependence). Here, we report on a laboratory experiment exploring how these findings transfer to a non-cooperative setting. We find two major results: (i) promoting intuition versus deliberation has no effect on cooperative behaviour among inexperienced subjects living in a non-cooperative setting; (ii) experienced subjects cooperate more than inexperienced subjects, but only under time pressure. These results suggest that cooperation is a learning process, rather than an instinctive impulse or a self-controlled choice, and that experience operates primarily via the channel of intuition. Our findings shed further light on the cognitive basis of human cooperative decision-making and provide further support for the recently proposed social heuristics hypothesis. PMID:26156762

Intuition in Business: Empirical Base

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fomin, Eugeniy P.; Alekseev, Andrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Rensh, Marina A.; Zaitseva, Ekaterina V.

2016-01-01

In this article, the authors propose economic projection of the views of Daniel Kahneman on intuition. The authors believe intuition to act as an operative category in entrepreneurship. The results of given statistical experiment prove viability of the phenomenon of intuition when making investment decisions. Two independent mechanisms for…

Decision-Making Phenomena Described by Expert Nurses Working in Urban Community Health Settings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watkins, Mary P.

1998-01-01

Expert community health nurses (n=28) described crucial clinical situations. Content analysis revealed that decision making was both rational and intuitive. Eight themes were identified: decision-making focus, type, purpose, decision-maker characteristics, sequencing of events, data collection methods, facilitators/barriers, and decision-making…

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.

2014-01-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health. PMID:25530822

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health.

Don't Scoff at Intuitive Hunches.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agor, Weston H.

1988-01-01

Research indicates that intuition can be an invaluable tool for educational leaders forced to make major decisions under circumstances defying a "left brain" approach. The article explains intuitive logic, how to learn and apply it, and how to identify intuitive staff members and enhance their productivity. Includes seven references. (MLH)

How Intuition Can Be Used to Enhance Creativity in Organizations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agor, Weston H.

1991-01-01

This article outlines goals and techniques that can be used to seek and employ intuitive skills for improved decision making. The article describes the Brain Skill Management program, which helps organizations identify intuitive talent resources and needs, integrate this talent with traditional management approaches, and develop intuitive talent…

Indicators of Informal and Formal Decision-Making about a Socioscientific Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dauer, Jenny M.; Lute, Michelle L.; Straka, Olivia

2017-01-01

We propose two contrasting types of student decision-making based on social and cognitive psychology models of separate mental processes for problem solving. Informal decision-making uses intuitive reasoning and is subject to cognitive biases, whereas formal decision-making uses effortful, logical reasoning. We explored indicators of students'…

Decision Support Systems and the Conflict Model of Decision Making: A Stimulus for New Computer-Assisted Careers Guidance Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ballantine, R. Malcolm

Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are computer-based decision aids to use when making decisions which are partially amenable to rational decision-making procedures but contain elements where intuitive judgment is an essential component. In such situations, DSSs are used to improve the quality of decision-making. The DSS approach is based on Simon's…

Sex and Career Decision-Making Styles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lunneborg, Patricia W.

1978-01-01

Tested the hypothesis of greater reliance on the intuitive style by females and on the planning style by males in making career decisions. There were no sex differences in these high school and college samples for stage or style of decision making, vocational self-concept crystallization, or self-rated vocational decisiveness. (Author/BEF)

Fostering Intuition in Management Education: Activities and Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadler-Smith, Eugene; Burke, Lisa A.

2009-01-01

In business, there is little doubt that managers use their intuitions when making decisions. But in spite of the fact that intuition and rationality are two parallel systems of knowing, intuition is often considered the antithesis of rationality and is overlooked, disregarded, or acted on covertly by managers. What is also clear is that intuition…

Fast but not intuitive, slow but not reflective: Decision conflict drives reaction times in social dilemmas.

PubMed

Evans, Anthony M; Dillon, Kyle D; Rand, David G

2015-10-01

When people have the chance to help others at a cost to themselves, are cooperative decisions driven by intuition or reflection? To answer this question, recent studies have tested the relationship between reaction times (RTs) and cooperation, reporting both positive and negative correlations. To reconcile this apparent contradiction, we argue that decision conflict (rather than the use of intuition vs. reflection) drives response times, leading to an inverted-U shaped relationship between RT and cooperation. Studies 1 through 3 show that intermediate decisions take longer than both extremely selfish and extremely cooperative decisions. Studies 4 and 5 find that the conflict between self-interested and cooperative motives explains individual differences in RTs. Manipulating conflictedness causes longer RTs and more intermediate decisions, and RTs mediate the relationship between conflict and intermediate decisions. Finally, Studies 6 and 7 demonstrate that conflict is distinct from reflection by manipulating the use of intuition (vs. reflection). Experimentally promoting reliance on intuition increases cooperation, but has no effects on decision extremity or feelings of conflictedness. In sum, we provide evidence that RTs should not be interpreted as a direct proxy for the use of intuitive or reflective processes, and dissociate the effects of conflict and reflection in social decision making. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Social setting, intuition and experience in laboratory experiments interact to shape cooperative decision-making.

PubMed

Capraro, Valerio; Cococcioni, Giorgia

2015-07-22

Recent studies suggest that cooperative decision-making in one-shot interactions is a history-dependent dynamic process: promoting intuition versus deliberation typically has a positive effect on cooperation (dynamism) among people living in a cooperative setting and with no previous experience in economic games on cooperation (history dependence). Here, we report on a laboratory experiment exploring how these findings transfer to a non-cooperative setting. We find two major results: (i) promoting intuition versus deliberation has no effect on cooperative behaviour among inexperienced subjects living in a non-cooperative setting; (ii) experienced subjects cooperate more than inexperienced subjects, but only under time pressure. These results suggest that cooperation is a learning process, rather than an instinctive impulse or a self-controlled choice, and that experience operates primarily via the channel of intuition. Our findings shed further light on the cognitive basis of human cooperative decision-making and provide further support for the recently proposed social heuristics hypothesis. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

[The role of gut instinct is an important subject].

PubMed

Snoek, Jos W

2010-01-01

The role of gut instinct in general practice is an important topic. The reliance on gut instinct by experienced doctors is thought to be a form of intuitive decision-making which fits in with System 1 processes in the dual process model in higher cognition. Special mention is made of the theories on intuitive decision-making by the famous Dutch psychologist De Groot, who, when investigating thought processes of chess masters more than half a century ago, developed a fundamental theory on intuitive heuristics. Further studies on the determinants and conditions under which heuristics, such as the reliance on gut instinct, are applied in clinical practice are very welcome.

A Psychobiographical Study of Intuition in a Writer's Life: Paulo Coelho Revisited

PubMed Central

Mayer, Claude-Hélène; Maree, David

2017-01-01

Intuition is defined as a form of knowledge which materialises as awareness of thoughts, feelings and physical sensations. It is a key to a deeper understanding and meaningfulness. Intuition, used as a psychological function, supports the transmission and integration of perceptions from unconscious and conscious realms. This study uses a psychobiographical single case study approach to explore intuition across the life span of Paulo Coelho. Methodologically, the study is based on a single case study, using the methodological frame of Dilthey's modern hermeneutics. The author, Paulo Coelho, was chosen as a subject of research, based on the content analysis of first- and third-person perspective documents. Findings show that Paulo Coelho, as one of the most famous and most read contemporary authors in the world, uses his intuitions as a deeper guidance in life, for decision-making and self-development. Intuitive decision-making is described throughout his life and by referring to selected creative works. PMID:28904596

Bayesian techniques for analyzing group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision-makers.

PubMed

Steingroever, Helen; Pachur, Thorsten; Šmíra, Martin; Lee, Michael D

2018-06-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is one of the most popular experimental paradigms for comparing complex decision-making across groups. Most commonly, IGT behavior is analyzed using frequentist tests to compare performance across groups, and to compare inferred parameters of cognitive models developed for the IGT. Here, we present a Bayesian alternative based on Bayesian repeated-measures ANOVA for comparing performance, and a suite of three complementary model-based methods for assessing the cognitive processes underlying IGT performance. The three model-based methods involve Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation, Bayes factor model comparison, and Bayesian latent-mixture modeling. We illustrate these Bayesian methods by applying them to test the extent to which differences in intuitive versus deliberate decision style are associated with differences in IGT performance. The results show that intuitive and deliberate decision-makers behave similarly on the IGT, and the modeling analyses consistently suggest that both groups of decision-makers rely on similar cognitive processes. Our results challenge the notion that individual differences in intuitive and deliberate decision styles have a broad impact on decision-making. They also highlight the advantages of Bayesian methods, especially their ability to quantify evidence in favor of the null hypothesis, and that they allow model-based analyses to incorporate hierarchical and latent-mixture structures.

[Treatment regulations and treatment limits: factors influencing clinical decision-making].

PubMed

Baberg, H T; Kielstein, R; de Zeeuw, J; Sass, H-M

2002-08-02

Providing or withholding of treatment is based on a variety of factors. We sought for criteria in clinical decision making and reviewed attitudes towards clinical intuition and the patient's will. 503 physicians (25.6 % females; mean age 36.3) in 49 departments at nine hospitals of the universities Bochum and Magdeburg filled in a validated questionnaire. The most important factors in the decision to carry out a therapy were "international standards" and "own experience". The decision to omit a therapy was mainly influenced by the "patient's wish". Physicians with a higher status judged their own experience higher than young physicians, who considered the experience of colleagues more important. "Severe accompanying illnesses" and "multimorbidity" were the most frequently named reasons to withdraw a therapy. Intuitive decision-making was rare, especially in young physicians, although these decisions were seldom risky and often successful. A patient's will plays a prominent role in clinical decision making, especially in decisions to withdraw or to withhold treatment. Cost containment and research interest have been called less important, a remarkable response from research-based university hospitals. Also remarkable is the recognition and importance of clinical intuition in situations of complex or missing information. This important aspect is rarely discussed in the literature or in medical education. The widely voiced concern that priorities in clinical care are guided by scientific interest, financial or technical possibilities could not be confirmed.

Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F; Brainerd, Charles J

2011-09-01

From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals-that reasoning biases emerge with development -have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts both improvement and developmental reversals in reasoning and decision making. Drawing on research on logical and quantitative reasoning, as well as on risky decision making in the laboratory and in life, we illustrate how the same small set of theoretical principles apply to typical neurodevelopment, encompassing childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and to neurological conditions such as autism and Alzheimer's disease. For example, framing effects-that risk preferences shift when the same decisions are phrases in terms of gains versus losses-emerge in early adolescence as gist-based intuition develops. In autistic individuals, who rely less on gist-based intuition and more on verbatim-based analysis, framing biases are attenuated (i.e., they outperform typically developing control subjects). In adults, simple manipulations based on fuzzy-trace theory can make framing effects appear and disappear depending on whether gist-based intuition or verbatim-based analysis is induced. These theoretical principles are summarized and integrated in a new mathematical model that specifies how dual modes of reasoning combine to produce predictable variability in performance. In particular, we show how the most popular and extensively studied model of decision making-prospect theory-can be derived from fuzzy-trace theory by combining analytical (verbatim-based) and intuitive (gist-based) processes.

Students' Value Orientations, Intuitive Decision Making, and Motivational Interference, and Their Relations to Regret

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuhnle, Claudia; Sinclair, Marta; Hofer, Manfred; Kilian, Britta

2014-01-01

Students' learning activities frequently compete with their leisure options, leading to regret after decisions to study. Using a sample of 233 German and 194 Australian undergraduate students, the authors explored possible determinants of the personality construct regret. They investigated whether the level to which students rely on intuition in…

The Myth of the Rational Decision Maker: A Framework for Applying and Enhancing Heuristic and Intuitive Decision Making by School Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Stephen H.

2004-01-01

This article takes a critical look at administrative decision making in schools and the extent to which complex decisions conform to normative models and common expectations of rationality. An alternative framework for administrative decision making is presented that is informed, but not driven, by theories of rationality. The framework assumes…

ED Triage Decision-Making With Mental Health Presentations: A "Think Aloud" Study.

PubMed

Clarke, Diana E; Boyce-Gaudreau, Krystal; Sanderson, Ana; Baker, John A

2015-11-01

Triage is the process whereby persons presenting to the emergency department are quickly assessed by a nurse and their need for care and service is prioritized. Research examining the care of persons presenting to emergency departments with psychiatric and mental health problems has shown that triage has often been cited as the most problematic aspect of the encounter. Three questions guided this investigation: Where do the decisions that triage nurses make fall on the intuitive versus analytic dimensions of decision making for mental health presentations in the emergency department, and does this differ according to comfort or familiarity with the type of mental health/illness presentation? How do "decision aids" (i.e., structured triage scales) help in the decision-making process? To what extent do other factors, such as attitudes, influence triage nurses' decision making? Eleven triage nurses participating in this study were asked to talk out loud about the reasoning process they would engage in while triaging patients in 5 scenarios based on mental health presentations to the emergency department. Themes emerging from the data were tweaking the results (including the use of intuition and early judgments) to arrive at the desired triage score; consideration of the current ED environment; managing uncertainty and risk (including the consideration of physical reasons for presentation); and confidence in communicating with patients in distress and managing their own emotive reactions to the scenario. Findings support the preference for using the intuitive mode of decision making with only tacit reliance on the decision aid. Copyright © 2015 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parallel constraint satisfaction in memory-based decisions.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Hodges, Sara D

2011-01-01

Three studies sought to investigate decision strategies in memory-based decisions and to test the predictions of the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model for decision making (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008). Time pressure was manipulated and the model was compared against simple heuristics (take the best and equal weight) and a weighted additive strategy. From PCS we predicted that fast intuitive decision making is based on compensatory information integration and that decision time increases and confidence decreases with increasing inconsistency in the decision task. In line with these predictions we observed a predominant usage of compensatory strategies under all time-pressure conditions and even with decision times as short as 1.7 s. For a substantial number of participants, choices and decision times were best explained by PCS, but there was also evidence for use of simple heuristics. The time-pressure manipulation did not significantly affect decision strategies. Overall, the results highlight intuitive, automatic processes in decision making and support the idea that human information-processing capabilities are less severely bounded than often assumed.

How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach

PubMed Central

Corbin, Jonathan C.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Weldon, Rebecca B.; Brainerd, Charles J.

2015-01-01

Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis. PMID:26664820

How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

PubMed

Corbin, Jonathan C; Reyna, Valerie F; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

2015-12-01

Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis.

When is giving an impulse? An ERP investigation of intuitive prosocial behavior

PubMed Central

Aknin, Lara B.; Liotti, Mario

2016-01-01

Human prosociality is often assumed to emerge from exerting reflective control over initial, selfish impulses. However, recent findings suggest that prosocial actions can also stem from processes that are fast, automatic and intuitive. Here, we attempt to clarify when prosocial behavior may be intuitive by examining prosociality as a form of reward seeking. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we explored whether a neural signature that rapidly encodes the motivational salience of an event—the P300—can predict intuitive prosocial motivation. Participants allocated varying amounts of money between themselves and charities they initially labelled as high- or low-empathy targets under conditions that promoted intuitive or reflective decision making. Consistent with our predictions, P300 amplitude over centroparietal regions was greater when giving involved high-empathy targets than low-empathy targets, but only when deciding under intuitive conditions. Reflective conditions, alternatively, elicited an earlier frontocentral positivity related to response inhibition, regardless of target. Our findings suggest that during prosocial decision making, larger P300 amplitude could (i) signal intuitive prosocial motivation and (ii) predict subsequent engagement in prosocial behavior. This work offers novel insight into when prosociality may be driven by intuitive processes and the roots of such behaviors. PMID:26084530

Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahneman, Daniel; Klein, Gary

2009-01-01

This article reports on an effort to explore the differences between two approaches to intuition and expertise that are often viewed as conflicting: heuristics and biases (HB) and naturalistic decision making (NDM). Starting from the obvious fact that professional intuition is sometimes marvelous and sometimes flawed, the authors attempt to map…

Intuition in Coaching: It's Not Magic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. Pierre, Peter; Smith, Mark

2014-01-01

Many coaches have been called instinctive for decisions they have made, whether in game situations, recruiting, or other aspects of their job. Coaches often report having "gut feelings" before making important decisions. The purpose of this article is to dispel the notion of intuition as a magical ability, and begin to look at it as an…

Professional Competence and Intuitive Decision Making: A Simulation Study in the Domain of Emergency Medicine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harteis, Christian; Morgenthaler, Barbara; Kugler, Christine; Ittner, Karl-Peter; Roth, Gabriel; Graf, Bernhard

2012-01-01

Intuition presents as a crucial component of professional competence for many occupations, including emergency physicians because many of their decisions have to be made quickly. When arriving at the scene of an accident, they promptly have to assess the circumstances and initiate immediate life-saving measures without opportunities for deep…

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

PubMed Central

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions. PMID:26284011

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

PubMed

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

Dual Processes in Decision Making and Developmental Neuroscience: A Fuzzy-Trace Model

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.; Brainerd, Charles J.

2011-01-01

From Piaget to the present, traditional and dual-process theories have predicted improvement in reasoning from childhood to adulthood, and improvement has been observed. However, developmental reversals—that reasoning biases emerge with development —have also been observed in a growing list of paradigms. We explain how fuzzy-trace theory predicts both improvement and developmental reversals in reasoning and decision making. Drawing on research on logical and quantitative reasoning, as well as on risky decision making in the laboratory and in life, we illustrate how the same small set of theoretical principles apply to typical neurodevelopment, encompassing childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, and to neurological conditions such as autism and Alzheimer's disease. For example, framing effects—that risk preferences shift when the same decisions are phrases in terms of gains versus losses—emerge in early adolescence as gist-based intuition develops. In autistic individuals, who rely less on gist-based intuition and more on verbatim-based analysis, framing biases are attenuated (i.e., they outperform typically developing control subjects). In adults, simple manipulations based on fuzzy-trace theory can make framing effects appear and disappear depending on whether gist-based intuition or verbatim-based analysis is induced. These theoretical principles are summarized and integrated in a new mathematical model that specifies how dual modes of reasoning combine to produce predictable variability in performance. In particular, we show how the most popular and extensively studied model of decision making—prospect theory—can be derived from fuzzy-trace theory by combining analytical (verbatim-based) and intuitive (gist-based) processes. PMID:22096268

A Perspective on Judgment and Choice: Mapping Bounded Rationality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kahneman, Daniel

2003-01-01

Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible.…

The Development and Validation of the Rational and Intuitive Decision Styles Scale.

PubMed

Hamilton, Katherine; Shih, Shin-I; Mohammed, Susan

2016-01-01

Decision styles reflect the typical manner by which individuals make decisions. The purpose of this research was to develop and validate a decision style scale that addresses conceptual and psychometric problems with current measures. The resulting 10-item scale captures a broad range of the rational and intuitive styles construct domain. Results from 5 independent samples provide initial support for the dimensionality and reliability of the new scale, as demonstrated by a clear factor structure and high internal consistency. In addition, our results show evidence of convergent and discriminant validity through expected patterns of correlations across decision-making individual differences and the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP) Big Five traits. Research domains that would benefit from incorporating the concept of decision styles are discussed.

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

The Relation between Career Decision-Making Strategies and Person-Job Fit: A Study of Job Changers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singh, Romila; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

2004-01-01

This study examined relations between three career decision-making strategies (rational, intuitive, and dependent) and person--job fit among 361 professionals who had recently changed jobs. We found that the relation between each decision-making strategy and fit was contingent upon the concurrent use of other strategies. A rational strategy…

When is giving an impulse? An ERP investigation of intuitive prosocial behavior.

PubMed

Carlson, Ryan W; Aknin, Lara B; Liotti, Mario

2016-07-01

Human prosociality is often assumed to emerge from exerting reflective control over initial, selfish impulses. However, recent findings suggest that prosocial actions can also stem from processes that are fast, automatic and intuitive. Here, we attempt to clarify when prosocial behavior may be intuitive by examining prosociality as a form of reward seeking. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we explored whether a neural signature that rapidly encodes the motivational salience of an event-the P300-can predict intuitive prosocial motivation. Participants allocated varying amounts of money between themselves and charities they initially labelled as high- or low-empathy targets under conditions that promoted intuitive or reflective decision making. Consistent with our predictions, P300 amplitude over centroparietal regions was greater when giving involved high-empathy targets than low-empathy targets, but only when deciding under intuitive conditions. Reflective conditions, alternatively, elicited an earlier frontocentral positivity related to response inhibition, regardless of target. Our findings suggest that during prosocial decision making, larger P300 amplitude could (i) signal intuitive prosocial motivation and (ii) predict subsequent engagement in prosocial behavior. This work offers novel insight into when prosociality may be driven by intuitive processes and the roots of such behaviors. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A virtual environment for modeling and testing sensemaking with multisensor information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Denise; Bartlett, Kathleen; Hoppenfeld, Robert; Nolan, Margaret; Schatz, Sae

2014-05-01

Given today's challenging Irregular Warfare, members of small infantry units must be able to function as highly sensitized perceivers throughout large operational areas. Improved Situation Awareness (SA) in rapidly changing fields of operation may also save lives of law enforcement personnel and first responders. Critical competencies for these individuals include sociocultural sensemaking, the ability to assess a situation through the perception of essential salient environmental and behavioral cues, and intuitive sensemaking, which allows experts to act with the utmost agility. Intuitive sensemaking and intuitive decision making (IDM), which involve processing information at a subconscious level, have been cited as playing a critical role in saving lives and enabling mission success. This paper discusses the development of a virtual environment for modeling, analysis and human-in-the-loop testing of perception, sensemaking, intuitive sensemaking, decision making (DM), and IDM performance, using state-of-the-art scene simulation and modeled imagery from multi-source systems, under the "Intuition and Implicit Learning" Basic Research Challenge (I2BRC) sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR). We present results from our human systems engineering approach including 1) development of requirements and test metrics for individual and integrated system components, 2) the system architecture design 3) images of the prototype virtual environment testing system and 4) a discussion of the system's current and future testing capabilities. In particular, we examine an Enhanced Interaction Suite testbed to model, test, and analyze the impact of advances in sensor spatial, and temporal resolution to a user's intuitive sensemaking and decision making capabilities.

Learning to Make More Effective Decisions: Changing Beliefs as a Prelude to Action

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Sheldon

2004-01-01

Decision-makers in organizations often make what appear as being intuitively obviously and reasonable decisions, which often turn out to yield unintended outcomes. The cause of such ineffective decisions can be a combination of cognitive biases, poor mental models of complex systems, and errors in thinking provoked by anxiety, all of which tend to…

Closing your eyes to follow your heart: Avoiding information to protect a strong intuitive preference.

PubMed

Woolley, Kaitlin; Risen, Jane L

2018-02-01

Rationally, people should want to receive information that is costless and relevant for a decision. But people sometimes choose to remain ignorant. The current paper identifies intuitive-deliberative conflict as a driver of information avoidance. Moreover, we examine whether people avoid information not only to protect their feelings or experiences, but also to protect the decision itself. We predict that people avoid information that could encourage a more thoughtful, deliberative decision to make it easier to enact their intuitive preference. In Studies 1 and 2, people avoid learning the calories in a tempting dessert and compensation for a boring task to protect their preferences to eat the dessert and work on a more enjoyable task. The same people who want to avoid the information, however, use it when it is provided. In Studies 3-5, people decide whether to learn how much money they could earn by accepting an intuitively unappealing bet (that a sympathetic student performs poorly or that a hurricane hits a third-world country). Although intuitively unappealing, the bets are financially rational because they only have financial upside. If people avoid information in part to protect their intuitive preference, then avoidance should be greater when an intuitive preference is especially strong and when information could influence the decision. As predicted, avoidance is driven by the strength of the intuitive preference (Study 3) and, ironically, information avoidance is greater before a decision is made, when the information is decision relevant, than after, when the information is irrelevant for the decision (Studies 4 and 5). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

PubMed

Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

2014-02-01

Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

Prognostic categories and timing of negative prognostic communication from critical care physicians to family members at end-of-life in an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Karen M

2013-09-01

Negative prognostic communication is often delayed in intensive care units, which limits time for families to prepare for end-of-life. This descriptive study, informed by ethnographic methods, was focused on exploring critical care physician communication of negative prognoses to families and identifying timing influences. Prognostic communication of critical care physicians to nurses and family members was observed and physicians and family members were interviewed. Physician perception of prognostic certainty, based on an accumulation of empirical data, and the perceived need for decision-making, drove the timing of prognostic communication, rather than family needs. Although prognoses were initially identified using intuitive knowledge for patients in one of the six identified prognostic categories, utilizing decision-making to drive prognostic communication resulted in delayed prognostic communication to families until end-of-life (EOL) decisions could be justified with empirical data. Providers will better meet the needs of families who desire earlier prognostic information by separating prognostic communication from decision-making and communicating the possibility of a poor prognosis based on intuitive knowledge, while acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in prognostication. This sets the stage for later prognostic discussions focused on EOL decisions, including limiting or withdrawing treatment, which can be timed when empirical data substantiate intuitive prognoses. This allows additional time for families to anticipate and prepare for end-of-life decision-making. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Teaching a Rational Approach to Career Decision Making: Who Benefits Most?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krumboltz, John D.; And Others

1986-01-01

Rational, intuitive, fatalistic, and dependent decision makers were compared on how much they learned from a rational decision-making training intervention. Individuals who had been highly impulsive, dependent, or fatalistic in prior course selections and those who exhibited dependency in prior job choices appeared to learn most from the rational…

Survey of Literature Pertaining to Decision Making Styles and Individual Factors

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-10-01

facilitation Rules of engagement (ROE) Deductive reasoning Heuristic(s) Emotion/ Affect Consensus Time pressure Rational decision making Recognition...managers are more likely to use an intuitive decision making style, while Sensing/ Feeling types use more of a rational style. These results were also...performance of the individual, team and organization. Research has indicated that a variety of individual factors affect the way in which people make

The Impact of the Mode of Thought in Complex Decisions: Intuitive Decisions are Better

PubMed Central

Usher, Marius; Russo, Zohar; Weyers, Mark; Brauner, Ran; Zakay, Dan

2011-01-01

A number of recent studies have reported that decision quality is enhanced under conditions of inattention or distraction (unconscious thought; Dijksterhuis, 2004; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, 2006; Dijksterhuis et al., 2006). These reports have generated considerable controversy, for both experimental (problems of replication) and theoretical reasons (interpretation). Here we report the results of four experiments. The first experiment replicates the unconscious thought effect, under conditions that validate and control the subjective criterion of decision quality. The second and third experiments examine the impact of a mode of thought manipulation (without distraction) on decision quality in immediate decisions. Here we find that intuitive or affective manipulations improve decision quality compared to analytic/deliberation manipulations. The fourth experiment combines the two methods (distraction and mode of thought manipulations) and demonstrates enhanced decision quality, in a situation that attempts to preserve ecological validity. The results are interpreted within a framework that is based on two interacting subsystems of decision-making: an affective/intuition based system and an analytic/deliberation system. PMID:21716605

A gut feeling? Intuition and critical care nursing.

PubMed

Hams, S P

2000-10-01

As nurses, we are knowledgeable about nursing and able, immediately and intuitively, to identify the needs and demands of a given situation. Experienced nurses practise intuitively by virtue of having developed, through critical thought, a deeply grounded knowledge base that can be applied in daily practice. Each gains knowledge about nursing practice in such a way that every clinical experience becomes a lesson which informs the next experience. There is continued debate over the domain of nursing knowledge, where it originates and to whom it belongs. Much of nursing knowledge has emerged from the practice of other professions. There now appears to be an increasing focus within today's modern healthcare environment on the importance of measurable outcomes and the need to predict the consequences of all interventions. The strength of our intuition often urges us to do something more for the patient. When we as nurses report our intuitions, subjective feelings are often at odds with the objective signs and symptoms. Nurses have made great strides in recognizing, analysing and teaching concepts related to logical, rational decision-making. It is imperative, however, also to recognize and teach the concepts related to the intuitive and precognitive components of making decisions in clinical practice.

Understanding patients' decisions. Cognitive and emotional perspectives.

PubMed

Redelmeier, D A; Rozin, P; Kahneman, D

1993-07-07

To describe ways in which intuitive thought processes and feelings may lead patients to make suboptimal medical decisions. Review of past studies from the psychology literature. Intuitive decision making is often appropriate and results in reasonable choices; in some situations, however, intuitions lead patients to make choices that are not in their best interests. People sometimes treat safety and danger categorically, undervalue the importance of a partial risk reduction, are influenced by the way in which a problem is framed, and inappropriately evaluate an action by its subsequent outcome. These strategies help explain examples where risk perceptions conflict with standard scientific analyses. In the domain of emotions, people tend to consider losses as more significant than the corresponding gains, are imperfect at predicting future preferences, distort their memories of past personal experiences, have difficulty resolving inconsistencies between emotions and rationality, and worry with an intensity disproportionate to the actual danger. In general, such intangible aspects of clinical care have received little attention in the medical literature. We suggest that an awareness of how people reason is an important clinical skill that can be promoted by knowledge of selected past studies in psychology.

Identifying the Complexities within Clients' Thinking and Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heppner, P. Paul

1989-01-01

Responds to Gelatt's conception of decision making in counseling. Concurs with need for a broader view of human reasoning that includes complex processes, both rational and intuitive. Advocates examination of how clients think, feel, and behave as they process information during counseling. (Author/TE)

Do intuitive and deliberate judgments rely on two distinct neural systems? A case study in face processing

PubMed Central

Mega, Laura F.; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Volz, Kirsten G.

2015-01-01

Arguably the most influential models of human decision-making today are based on the assumption that two separable systems – intuition and deliberation – underlie the judgments that people make. Our recent work is among the first to present neural evidence contrary to the predictions of these dual-systems accounts. We measured brain activations using functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants were specifically instructed to either intuitively or deliberately judge the authenticity of emotional facial expressions. Results from three different analyses revealed both common brain networks of activation across decision mode and differential activations as a function of strategy adherence. We take our results to contradict popular dual-systems accounts that propose a clear-cut dichotomy of the processing systems, and to support rather a unified model. According to this, intuitive and deliberate judgment processes rely on the same rules, though only the former are thought to be characterized by non-conscious processing. PMID:26379523

Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing.

PubMed

Croskerry, Pat; Singhal, Geeta; Mamede, Sílvia

2013-10-01

Numerous studies have shown that diagnostic failure depends upon a variety of factors. Psychological factors are fundamental in influencing the cognitive performance of the decision maker. In this first of two papers, we discuss the basics of reasoning and the Dual Process Theory (DPT) of decision making. The general properties of the DPT model, as it applies to diagnostic reasoning, are reviewed. A variety of cognitive and affective biases are known to compromise the decision-making process. They mostly appear to originate in the fast intuitive processes of Type 1 that dominate (or drive) decision making. Type 1 processes work well most of the time but they may open the door for biases. Removing or at least mitigating these biases would appear to be an important goal. We will also review the origins of biases. The consensus is that there are two major sources: innate, hard-wired biases that developed in our evolutionary past, and acquired biases established in the course of development and within our working environments. Both are associated with abbreviated decision making in the form of heuristics. Other work suggests that ambient and contextual factors may create high risk situations that dispose decision makers to particular biases. Fatigue, sleep deprivation and cognitive overload appear to be important determinants. The theoretical basis of several approaches towards debiasing is then discussed. All share a common feature that involves a deliberate decoupling from Type 1 intuitive processing and moving to Type 2 analytical processing so that eventually unexamined intuitive judgments can be submitted to verification. This decoupling step appears to be the critical feature of cognitive and affective debiasing.

[Cognitive errors in diagnostic decision making].

PubMed

Gäbler, Martin

2017-10-01

Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.

Dentist-Patient Interactions in Treatment Decision-Making: A Qualitative Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Redford, Maryann; Gift, Helen C.

1997-01-01

A University of North Carolina study using focus groups of dentists and patients found dentist-patient interactions play an important role in treatment decision-making, and are predicated on non-clinical factors, including dentists' intuition and judgment and patient impressions of dentists' examination styles, personalities, and interpersonal…

Understanding Decision Making in Teachers' Curriculum Design Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boschman, Ferry; McKenney, Susan; Voogt, Joke

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to reach a better understanding of the intuitive decisions teachers make when designing a technology-rich learning environment. A multiple case-study design was employed to examine what kinds of factors (external priorities, existing orientations or practical concerns) influence design interactions of teams of…

Questioning Intuition through Reflective Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Christopher D.

2014-01-01

Current literature on ethics and moral development focuses on discussion concerning the impact of intuition on moral decision-making. Through the use of student journal reflections over the course of one semester, this study utilized a grounded theory approach in order to explore and understand participant levels of awareness and understanding of…

A Systems Approach to Creativity Based on Jungian Typology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krippner, Stanley

1983-01-01

Two dimensions of Carl Jung's psychological system (preference for information and choice of decision making processes) are applied to creativity research. Examples of four personality types (sensing- thinking, sensing-feeling, intuition-feeling, and intuition-thinking) are represented by prominent social scientists. A systems model of science is…

Discrepancies between multicriteria decision analysis-based ranking and intuitive ranking for pharmaceutical benefit-risk profiles in a hypothetical setting.

PubMed

Hoshikawa, K; Ono, S

2017-02-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been generally considered a promising decision-making methodology for the assessment of drug benefit-risk profiles. There have been many discussions in both public and private sectors on its feasibility and applicability, but it has not been employed in official decision-makings. For the purpose of examining to what extent MCDA would reflect the first-hand, intuitive preference of evaluators in practical pharmaceutical assessments, we conducted a questionnaire survey involving the participation of employees of pharmaceutical companies. Showing profiles of the efficacy and safety of four hypothetical drugs, each respondent was asked to rank them following the standard MCDA process and then to rank them intuitively (i.e. without applying any analytical framework). These two approaches resulted in substantially different ranking patterns from the same individuals, and the concordance rate was surprisingly low (17%). Although many respondents intuitively showed a preference for mild, balanced risk-benefit profiles over profiles with a conspicuous advantage in either risk or benefit, the ranking orders based on MCDA scores did not reflect the intuitive preference. Observed discrepancies between the rankings seemed to be primarily attributed to the structural characteristics of MCDA, which assumes that evaluation on each benefit and risk component should have monotonic impact on final scores. It would be difficult for MCDA to reflect commonly observed non-monotonic preferences for risk and benefit profiles. Possible drawbacks of MCDA should be further investigated prior to the real-world application of its benefit-risk assessment. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does future-oriented thinking predict adolescent decision making?

PubMed

Eskritt, Michelle; Doucette, Jesslyn; Robitaille, Lori

2014-01-01

A number of theorists, as well as plain common sense, suggest that future-oriented thinking (FOT) should be involved in decision making; therefore, the development of FOT should be related to better quality decision making. FOT and quality of the decision making were measured in adolescents as well as adults in 2 different experiments. Though the results of the first experiment revealed an increase in quality of decision making across adolescence into adulthood, there was no relationship between FOT and decision making. In the second experiment, FOT predicted performance on a more deliberative decision-making task independent of age, but not performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Performance on the IGT was instead related to emotion regulation. The study's findings suggest that FOT can be related to reflective decision making but not necessarily decision making that is more intuitive.

Classifying clinical decision making: interpreting nursing intuition, heuristics and medical diagnosis.

PubMed

Buckingham, C D; Adams, A

2000-10-01

This is the second of two linked papers exploring decision making in nursing. The first paper, 'Classifying clinical decision making: a unifying approach' investigated difficulties with applying a range of decision-making theories to nursing practice. This is due to the diversity of terminology and theoretical concepts used, which militate against nurses being able to compare the outcomes of decisions analysed within different frameworks. It is therefore problematic for nurses to assess how good their decisions are, and where improvements can be made. However, despite the range of nomenclature, it was argued that there are underlying similarities between all theories of decision processes and that these should be exposed through integration within a single explanatory framework. A proposed solution was to use a general model of psychological classification to clarify and compare terms, concepts and processes identified across the different theories. The unifying framework of classification was described and this paper operationalizes it to demonstrate how different approaches to clinical decision making can be re-interpreted as classification behaviour. Particular attention is focused on classification in nursing, and on re-evaluating heuristic reasoning, which has been particularly prone to theoretical and terminological confusion. Demonstrating similarities in how different disciplines make decisions should promote improved multidisciplinary collaboration and a weakening of clinical elitism, thereby enhancing organizational effectiveness in health care and nurses' professional status. This is particularly important as nurses' roles continue to expand to embrace elements of managerial, medical and therapeutic work. Analysing nurses' decisions as classification behaviour will also enhance clinical effectiveness, and assist in making nurses' expertise more visible. In addition, the classification framework explodes the myth that intuition, traditionally associated with nurses' decision making, is less rational and scientific than other approaches.

A conceptual model for generating and validating in-session clinical judgments

PubMed Central

Jacinto, Sofia B.; Lewis, Cara C.; Braga, João N.; Scott, Kelli

2016-01-01

Objective Little attention has been paid to the nuanced and complex decisions made in the clinical session context and how these decisions influence therapy effectiveness. Despite decades of research on the dual-processing systems, it remains unclear when and how intuitive and analytical reasoning influence the direction of the clinical session. Method This paper puts forth a testable conceptual model, guided by an interdisciplinary integration of the literature, that posits that the clinical session context moderates the use of intuitive versus analytical reasoning. Results A synthesis of studies examining professional best practices in clinical decision-making, empirical evidence from clinical judgment research, and the application of decision science theories indicate that intuitive and analytical reasoning may have profoundly different impacts on clinical practice and outcomes. Conclusions The proposed model is discussed with respect to its implications for clinical practice and future research. PMID:27088962

A review of clinical decision making: models and current research.

PubMed

Banning, Maggi

2008-01-01

The aim of this paper was to review the current literature clinical decision-making models and the educational application of models to clinical practice. This was achieved by exploring the function and related research of the three available models of clinical decision making: information-processing model, the intuitive-humanist model and the clinical decision-making model. Clinical decision making is a unique process that involves the interplay between knowledge of pre-existing pathological conditions, explicit patient information, nursing care and experiential learning. Historically, two models of clinical decision making are recognized from the literature; the information-processing model and the intuitive-humanist model. The usefulness and application of both models has been examined in relation the provision of nursing care and care related outcomes. More recently a third model of clinical decision making has been proposed. This new multidimensional model contains elements of the information-processing model but also examines patient specific elements that are necessary for cue and pattern recognition. Literature review. Evaluation of the literature generated from MEDLINE, CINAHL, OVID, PUBMED and EBESCO systems and the Internet from 1980 to November 2005. The characteristics of the three models of decision making were identified and the related research discussed. Three approaches to clinical decision making were identified, each having its own attributes and uses. The most recent addition to the clinical decision making is a theoretical, multidimensional model which was developed through an evaluation of current literature and the assessment of a limited number of research studies that focused on the clinical decision-making skills of inexperienced nurses in pseudoclinical settings. The components of this model and the relative merits to clinical practice are discussed. It is proposed that clinical decision making improves as the nurse gains experience of nursing patients within a specific speciality and with experience, nurses gain a sense of saliency in relation to decision making. Experienced nurses may use all three forms of clinical decision making both independently and concurrently to solve nursing-related problems. It is suggested that O'Neill's clinical decision-making model could be tested by educators and experienced nurses to assess the efficacy of this hybrid approach to decision making.

Examining the Influence of Context and Professional Culture on Clinical Reasoning Through Rhetorical-Narrative Analysis.

PubMed

Peters, Amanda; Vanstone, Meredith; Monteiro, Sandra; Norman, Geoff; Sherbino, Jonathan; Sibbald, Matthew

2017-05-01

According to the dual process model of reasoning, physicians make diagnostic decisions using two mental systems: System 1, which is rapid, unconscious, and intuitive, and System 2, which is slow, rational, and analytical. Currently, little is known about physicians' use of System 1 or intuitive reasoning in practice. In a qualitative study of clinical reasoning, physicians were asked to tell stories about times when they used intuitive reasoning while working up an acutely unwell patient, and we combine socio-narratology and rhetorical theory to analyze physicians' stories. Our analysis reveals that in describing their work, physicians draw on two competing narrative structures: one that is aligned with an evidence-based medicine approach valuing System 2 and one that is aligned with cooperative decision making involving others in the clinical environment valuing System 1. Our findings support an understanding of clinical reasoning as distributed, contextual, and influenced by professional culture.

Participative Decision Making in Schools: A Mediating-Moderating Analytical Framework for Understanding School and Teacher Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somech, Anit

2010-01-01

The increasing emergence of participation in decision making (PDM) in schools reflects the widely shared belief that flatter management and decentralized authority structures carry the potential for promoting school effectiveness. However, the literature indicates a discrepancy between the intuitive appeal of PDM and empirical evidence in respect…

Reason, Intuition, and Social Justice: Elaborating on Parson's Career Decision-Making Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartung, Paul J.; Blustein, David L.

2002-01-01

Nearly a century ago, Frank Parsons established the Vocation Bureau in Boston and spawned the development of the counseling profession. Elaborating on Parsons's socially responsible vision for counseling, the authors examine contemporary perspectives on career decision making that include both rational and alternative models and propose that these…

Instructional Design for Advanced Learners: Training Recognition Skills to Hasten Expertise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fadde, Peter Jae

2009-01-01

Expertise in domains ranging from sports to surgery involves a process of recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) in which experts make rapid, intuitive decisions based on recognizing critical features of dynamic performance situations. While the development of expert RPD is assumed to require years of domain experience, the transition from…

Good Thinking or Gut Feeling? Cognitive Reflection and Intuition in Traders, Bankers and Financial Non-Experts

PubMed Central

Thoma, Volker; White, Elliott; Panigrahi, Asha; Strowger, Vanessa; Anderson, Irina

2015-01-01

The current study investigated differences in decision-making style and risk-taking between financial traders, non-trading bank employees, and people not working in finance. Traders scored significantly higher than participants in the other two groups on the cognitive reflection test (CRT) which measures the tendency to inhibit automatic but frequently false responses in reasoning tasks. Scores for traders compared to people outside the banking sector were also higher on a self-rated scale for reflective thinking in decision-making, but there were no differences in self-rated intuitive thinking between groups. Financial risk-taking correlated with cognitive reflection scores and was significantly lower in the non-expert group compared to the other groups working in financial services. Traders in the current study showed no elevated preference to use ‘intuition’ in their decision-making compared to other groups. Overall, these results indicate that compared to non-expert participants financial traders have a higher self-rated tendency for reflective thinking and a greater propensity to inhibit the use of mental shortcuts (heuristics) in decision-making. PMID:25875674

On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis.

PubMed

Pieterse, Arwen H; de Vries, Marieke

2013-09-01

Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference-sensitive health-care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic-based VCMs. To critically analyse the suitability of the 'take the best' (TTB) and 'tallying' fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. The specific nature of patient preference-sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the suitability of fast and frugal heuristics for designing values clarification methods in patient decision aids: a critical analysis

PubMed Central

Pieterse, Arwen H.; de Vries, Marieke

2011-01-01

Abstract Background  Increasingly, patient decision aids and values clarification methods (VCMs) are being developed to support patients in making preference‐sensitive health‐care decisions. Many VCMs encourage extensive deliberation about options, without solid theoretical or empirical evidence showing that deliberation is advantageous. Research suggests that simple, fast and frugal heuristic decision strategies sometimes result in better judgments and decisions. Durand et al. have developed two fast and frugal heuristic‐based VCMs. Objective  To critically analyse the suitability of the ‘take the best’ (TTB) and ‘tallying’ fast and frugal heuristics in the context of patient decision making. Strategy  Analysis of the structural similarities between the environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have been proven successful and the context of patient decision making and of the potential of these heuristic decision processes to support patient decision making. Conclusion  The specific nature of patient preference‐sensitive decision making does not seem to resemble environments in which the TTB and tallying heuristics have proven successful. Encouraging patients to consider less rather than more relevant information potentially even deteriorates their values clarification process. Values clarification methods promoting the use of more intuitive decision strategies may sometimes be more effective. Nevertheless, we strongly recommend further theoretical thinking about the expected value of such heuristics and of other more intuitive decision strategies in this context, as well as empirical assessments of the mechanisms by which inducing such decision strategies may impact the quality and outcome of values clarification. PMID:21902770

Cognitive debiasing 1: origins of bias and theory of debiasing

PubMed Central

Croskerry, Pat; Singhal, Geeta; Mamede, Sílvia

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have shown that diagnostic failure depends upon a variety of factors. Psychological factors are fundamental in influencing the cognitive performance of the decision maker. In this first of two papers, we discuss the basics of reasoning and the Dual Process Theory (DPT) of decision making. The general properties of the DPT model, as it applies to diagnostic reasoning, are reviewed. A variety of cognitive and affective biases are known to compromise the decision-making process. They mostly appear to originate in the fast intuitive processes of Type 1 that dominate (or drive) decision making. Type 1 processes work well most of the time but they may open the door for biases. Removing or at least mitigating these biases would appear to be an important goal. We will also review the origins of biases. The consensus is that there are two major sources: innate, hard-wired biases that developed in our evolutionary past, and acquired biases established in the course of development and within our working environments. Both are associated with abbreviated decision making in the form of heuristics. Other work suggests that ambient and contextual factors may create high risk situations that dispose decision makers to particular biases. Fatigue, sleep deprivation and cognitive overload appear to be important determinants. The theoretical basis of several approaches towards debiasing is then discussed. All share a common feature that involves a deliberate decoupling from Type 1 intuitive processing and moving to Type 2 analytical processing so that eventually unexamined intuitive judgments can be submitted to verification. This decoupling step appears to be the critical feature of cognitive and affective debiasing. PMID:23882089

Intuition: A Needed Component of Leadership for Decision-making in Today’s Technology Driven Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-15

technology‘s influence. She states, ―We treat technology as a family member…‖. Email replaced the Post Office with instant communication worldwide. We can...how or why the conclusion was reached in a rational sense. As Rowan states, ―Not being able to articulate a hazy, indistinct, subliminal impression...decisions and act independently, Kennan was not able to communicate his message and idea to senior leadership for years after his intuition led him

Thinking Fast Increases Framing Effects in Risky Decision Making.

PubMed

Guo, Lisa; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Diederich, Adele

2017-04-01

Every day, people face snap decisions when time is a limiting factor. In addition, the way a problem is presented can influence people's choices, which creates what are known as framing effects. In this research, we explored how time pressure interacts with framing effects in risky decision making. Specifically, does time pressure strengthen or weaken framing effects? On one hand, research has suggested that framing effects evolve through the deliberation process, growing larger with time. On the other hand, dual-process theory attributes framing effects to an intuitive, emotional system that responds automatically to stimuli. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed in terms of either gains or losses, and time pressure was manipulated across blocks. Results showed increased framing effects under time pressure in both hypothetical and incentivized choices, which supports the dual-process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system.

The value of decision models: Using ecologically based invasive plant management as an example

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Humans have both fast and slow thought processes which influence our judgment and decision-making. The fast system is intuitive and valuable for decisions which do not require multiple steps or the application of logic or statistics. However, many decisions in natural resources are complex and req...

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum

PubMed Central

Levin, Irwin P.; Gaeth, Gary J.; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from “theory of mind” to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others’ endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between “good” and “bad” risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making. PMID:25972831

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum.

PubMed

Levin, Irwin P; Gaeth, Gary J; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from "theory of mind" to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others' endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between "good" and "bad" risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making.

Will the Conscious-Subconscious Pacing Quagmire Help Elucidate the Mechanisms of Self-Paced Exercise? New Opportunities in Dual Process Theory and Process Tracing Methods.

PubMed

Micklewright, Dominic; Kegerreis, Sue; Raglin, John; Hettinga, Florentina

2017-07-01

The extent to which athletic pacing decisions are made consciously or subconsciously is a prevailing issue. In this article we discuss why the one-dimensional conscious-subconscious debate that has reigned in the pacing literature has suppressed our understanding of the multidimensional processes that occur in pacing decisions. How do we make our decisions in real-life competitive situations? What information do we use and how do we respond to opponents? These are questions that need to be explored and better understood, using smartly designed experiments. The paper provides clarity about key conscious, preconscious, subconscious and unconscious concepts, terms that have previously been used in conflicting and confusing ways. The potential of dual process theory in articulating multidimensional aspects of intuitive and deliberative decision-making processes is discussed in the context of athletic pacing along with associated process-tracing research methods. In attempting to refine pacing models and improve training strategies and psychological skills for athletes, the dual-process framework could be used to gain a clearer understanding of (1) the situational conditions for which either intuitive or deliberative decisions are optimal; (2) how intuitive and deliberative decisions are biased by things such as perception, emotion and experience; and (3) the underlying cognitive mechanisms such as memory, attention allocation, problem solving and hypothetical thought.

Contingent Decision Behavior: A Review and Discussion of Issues.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

values) will draw more attention (Yates, et. al., 1978). Studies investigating decision making among partially described alternatives are limited in number...theory that attempts to describe human decison making ." More evidence of range effects is provided in Krzysztofowicz and Ouckstein (1980). A good...activities may move along that intuitive-analytic continuum over time. For that reason he argues that decision researchers need to pay more attention to the

Decision-Making Style among Adolescents: Relationship with Sensation Seeking and Locus of Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baiocco, Roberto; Laghi, Fiorenzo; D'Alessio, Maria

2009-01-01

The principal aim of the study was to examine the psychometric properties and construct validity of the General Decision-Making Scale (GDMS) in a sample of 700 adolescents (aged 15-19 years). Confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses provide evidence for a solid five-dimension structure reflecting the theorized construct: rational, intuitive,…

The Wisdom of Tacit Knowing-in-Action and Mission Command

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moilanen, Jon H.

2015-01-01

Adult learners regularly confront complex and dynamic challenges in moments of crisis that require self-efficacy of intuition and immediate decision. Such "snap decision-making" requires highly developed critical thinking skills to effectively operate in the midst of chaos. This decisiveness is particularly challenging in the military…

Intuitions, principles and consequences

PubMed Central

Shaw, A

2001-01-01

Some approaches to the assessment of moral intuitions are discussed. The controlled ethical trial isolates a moral issue from confounding factors and thereby clarifies what a person's intuition actually is. Casuistic reasoning from situations, where intuitions are clear, suggests or modifies principles, which can then help to make decisions in situations where intuitions are unclear. When intuitions are defended by a supporting principle, that principle can be tested by finding extreme cases, in which it is counterintuitive to follow the principle. An approach to the resolution of conflict between valid moral principles, specifically the utilitarian and justice principles, is considered. It is argued that even those who justify intuitions by a priori principles are often obliged to modify or support their principles by resort to the consideration of consequences. Key Words: Intuitions • principles • consequences • utilitarianism PMID:11233371

[Interoception and decision-making].

PubMed

Ohira, Hideki

2015-02-01

We sometimes make decisions relying not necessarily on deliberative thoughts but on intuitive and emotional processes in uncertain situations. The somatic marker hypothesis proposed by Damasio argued that interoception, which means bodily responses such as sympathetic activity, can be represented in the insula and anterior cingulate cortex and can play critical roles in decision-making. Though this hypothesis has been criticized in its theoretical and empirical aspects, recent studies are expanding the hypothesis to elucidate multiple bodily responses including autonomic, endocrine, and immune activities that affect decision-making. In addition, cumulative findings suggest that the anterior insula where the inner model of interoception is represented can act as an interface between the brain and body in decision-making. This article aims to survey recent findings on the brain-body interplays underlying decision-making, and to propose hypotheses on the significance of the body in decision-making.

[Intuitive ability in nursing care].

PubMed

da Silva, Alcione Leite

2003-01-01

This study aimed to understand the intuitive ability of nursing professionals in caring. The study method was qualitative, adopting a descriptive exploratory approach. Sampling involved 87 female nursing professionals, being 31 nurses, 29 nursing technicians and 18 nursing auxiliaries. The result showed different levels of intuitive abilities, related to novice, standard, and veteran. The relation between the three levels of intuitive abilities and the corresponding figures in years, observed in a North American study, was not identified. The factors described as affecting the intuitive experience were both environmental and intra-interpersonal (personological). The experiences of the professionals portrayed the importance of intuition in nursing care, mainly in doubtful and conflicting situations and, in this sense, its vital function was decision-making towards better quality of nursing care.

Health professionals' decision-making in wound management: a grounded theory.

PubMed

Gillespie, Brigid M; Chaboyer, Wendy; St John, Winsome; Morley, Nicola; Nieuwenhoven, Paul

2015-06-01

To develop a conceptual understanding of the decision-making processes used by healthcare professionals in wound care practice. With the global move towards using an evidence-base in standardizing wound care practices and the need to reduce hospital wound care costs, it is important to understand health professionals' decision-making in this important yet under-researched area. A grounded theory approach was used to explore clinical decision-making of healthcare professionals in wound care practice. Interviews were conducted with 20 multi-disciplinary participants from nursing, surgery, infection control and wound care who worked at a metropolitan hospital in Australia. Data were collected during 2012-2013. Constant comparative analysis underpinned by Strauss and Corbin's framework was used to identify clinical decision-making processes. The core category was 'balancing practice-based knowledge with evidence-based knowledge'. Participants' clinical practice and actions embedded the following processes: 'utilizing the best available information', 'using a consistent approach in wound assessment' and 'using a multidisciplinary approach'. The substantive theory explains how practice and evidence knowledge was balanced and the variation in use of intuitive practice-based knowledge versus evidence-based knowledge. Participants considered patients' needs and preferences, costs, outcomes, technologies, others' expertise and established practices. Participants' decision-making tended to be more heavily weighted towards intuitive practice-based processes. These findings offer a better understanding of the processes used by health professionals' in their decision-making in wound care. Such an understanding may inform the development of evidence-based interventions that lead to better patient outcomes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shared Decision Making, Fast and Slow: Implications for Informed Consent, Resource Utilization, and Patient Satisfaction in Orthopaedic Surgery.

PubMed

Bernstein, Joseph; Kupperman, Eli; Kandel, Leonid Ari; Ahn, Jaimo

2016-07-01

Through shared decision making, the physician and patient exchange information to arrive at an agreement about the patient's preferred treatment. This process is predicated on the assumption that there is a single preferred treatment, and the goal of the dialog is to discover it. In contrast, psychology theory (ie, prospect theory) suggests that people can make decisions both analytically and intuitively through parallel decision-making processes, and depending on how the choice is framed, the two processes may not agree. Thus, patients may not have a single preferred treatment, but rather separate intuitive and analytic preferences. The research question addressed here is whether subjects might reveal different therapeutic preferences based on how a decision is framed. Five clinical scenarios on the management of tibial plateau fractures were constructed. Healthy volunteers were asked to select among treatments offered. Four weeks later, the scenarios were presented again; the facts of the scenario were unchanged, but the description was altered to test the null hypothesis that minor changes in wording would not lead the subjects to change their decision about treatment. For example, incomplete improvement after surgery was described first as a gain from the preoperative state and then as a loss from the preinjury state. In all five cases, the variation predicted by psychology theory was detected. Respondents were affected by whether choices were framed as avoided losses versus potential gains; by emotional cues; by choices reported by others (ie, bandwagon effect); by the answers proposed to them in the question (ie, anchors); and by seemingly irrelevant options (ie, decoys). The influence of presentation on preferences can be highly significant in orthopaedic surgery. The presence of parallel decision-making processes implies that the standard methods of obtaining informed consent may require further refinement. Furthermore, if the way that information is portrayed makes surgery more or less appealing, the use of services may be subject to unwanted influence. If surgery were accepted preoperatively by the patient's intuitive process but evaluated after the fact by the analytic process (or vice versa), well-indicated and well-performed surgery may still fail to provide patient satisfaction.

Cognitive biases can affect moral intuitions about cognitive enhancement

PubMed Central

Caviola, Lucius; Mannino, Adriano; Savulescu, Julian; Faulmüller, Nadira

2014-01-01

Research into cognitive biases that impair human judgment has mostly been applied to the area of economic decision-making. Ethical decision-making has been comparatively neglected. Since ethical decisions often involve very high individual as well as collective stakes, analyzing how cognitive biases affect them can be expected to yield important results. In this theoretical article, we consider the ethical debate about cognitive enhancement (CE) and suggest a number of cognitive biases that are likely to affect moral intuitions and judgments about CE: status quo bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, omission bias, scope insensitivity, nature bias, and optimistic bias. We find that there are more well-documented biases that are likely to cause irrational aversion to CE than biases in the opposite direction. This suggests that common attitudes about CE are predominantly negatively biased. Within this new perspective, we hope that subsequent research will be able to elaborate this hypothesis and develop effective de-biasing techniques that can help increase the rationality of the public CE debate and thus improve our ethical decision-making. PMID:25360088

A plea for virtue in ethics.

PubMed

Sisti, Dominic A; Baum-Baicker, Cynthia

2012-01-01

Comments on the original article, "Nonrational processes in ethical decision making" by M. D. Rogerson et al (see record 2011-19198-001). The current authors suggest that Rogerson, Gottlieb, Handelsman, Knapp, and Younggren (October 2011) presumed that the only ethical theories available for grounding decision-making models are of the rational, neoliberal variety. Rogerson et al stated, "Contextual, interpersonal, and intuitive factors are inextricably linked and inexorably influential in the process of ethical decision making. Ethical theory would benefit from encompassing these subtle yet powerful forces" (Rogerson et al., 2011, p. 616). They sought to augment these models with a cluster of contextual considerations, appending to them accounts of emotion, context, and intuition. First, notwithstanding the theories attributed to (the caricature of) Kant and his ilk, there are several ethical theories that include an account of what Rogerson et al. (2011) consider to be "nonrational" processes. From feminist theories to narrative ethics, sophisticated contextual theories have been developed and are readily available. Second, we question whether thick contextual considerations can simply be tacked on to extant models of decision making originally built upon a philosophical foundation that assumes a rational, autonomous agent who deliberates independently and logically.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413

The Effects of Psychological Type and Information Presentation on Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

States Air Force for giving me the opportunity to attend AFIT and learn more about information systems, management, and myself. I hope to provide a...19 The Orientation Dichotomy: Extravert/ Introvert ...................... 21 The Perception Dichotomy: Sensing vs. Intuition.................... 22...Specifically, Introverts were more accurate than Extraverts, Sensing types were more accurate than Intuitive types, Thinking types were more accurate

Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

PubMed

Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

2011-10-01

Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism.

PubMed

Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

2017-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

Probability or Reasoning: Current Thinking and Realistic Strategies for Improved Medical Decisions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature review of cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could be effectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimation might not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decision making (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy. PMID:29209469

Probability or Reasoning: Current Thinking and Realistic Strategies for Improved Medical Decisions.

PubMed

Nantha, Yogarabindranath Swarna

2017-11-01

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature review of cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could be effectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimation might not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decision making (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy.

Case-based clinical reasoning in feline medicine: 1: Intuitive and analytical systems.

PubMed

Canfield, Paul J; Whitehead, Martin L; Johnson, Robert; O'Brien, Carolyn R; Malik, Richard

2016-01-01

This is Article 1 of a three-part series on clinical reasoning that encourages practitioners to explore and understand how they think and make case-based decisions. It is hoped that, in the process, they will learn to trust their intuition but, at the same time, put in place safeguards to diminish the impact of bias and misguided logic on their diagnostic decision-making. This first article discusses the relative merits and shortcomings of System 1 thinking (immediate and unconscious) and System 2 thinking (effortful and analytical). Articles 2 and 3, to appear in the March and May 2016 issues of JFMS, respectively, will examine managing cognitive error, and use of heuristics (mental short cuts) and illness scripts in diagnostic reasoning. © The Author(s) 2016.

Social Intuition and Social Information in Physical Child Abuse Evaluation and Diagnosis.

PubMed

Keenan, Heather T; Cook, Lawrence J; Olson, Lenora M; Bardsley, Tyler; Campbell, Kristine A

2017-11-01

Poor and minority children with injuries concerning for abuse are evaluated and diagnosed for abuse differentially. We hypothesized that 2 steps in the decision-making process would influence evaluation and diagnosis: social intuition from meeting the family and objective social information associated with child abuse risk. Between 2009 and 2013, 32 child abuse pediatricians (CAPs) submitted 730 child abuse consultations including original medical evaluations and diagnoses. CAPs evaluated and diagnosed each other's cases. Comparisons of evaluations and diagnoses were made by levels of social understanding available to the CAP: meeting the family (social intuition and information), reading the case (social information), and reading the case without social information. Evaluations were compared with a consensus gold standard by using logistic regression modeling adjusting for child and CAP characteristics. Diagnostic categories were compared by level of social understanding and diagnostic certainty by using contingency tables. CAPs without access to social intuition were approximately twice as likely to perform gold standard evaluations for neurotrauma and long bone fracture compared with CAPs who met families. Diagnostic agreement fell from 73.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 70.1%-76.5%) when social information was present to 66.5% (95% CI: 63.1%-70.0%) when social information was restricted. In cases with less certainty, agreement dropped to 51.3% (95% CI: 46.0%-56.7%). Social intuition and information play a role in the physical child abuse decision-making process, which may contribute to differential diagnosis. Simple interventions including decision tools, check lists, and peer review may structure evaluations to ensure children's equal treatment. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

PubMed

Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

2015-05-01

Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

"World of Uncertainty" Game for Decision-Makers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyzy, Jyldyz Tabyldy

2011-01-01

Decisions on both personal and public matters benefit significantly if uncertainties and risks are handled with more care and accuracy. It is crucial to refine and express degrees of confidence and subjective probabilities of various outcomes. Experience, intuition, and skills help make the most of uncertain information. This paper proposes a…

Midwives׳ clinical reasoning during second stage labour: Report on an interpretive study.

PubMed

Jefford, Elaine; Fahy, Kathleen

2015-05-01

clinical reasoning was once thought to be the exclusive domain of medicine - setting it apart from 'non-scientific' occupations like midwifery. Poor assessment, clinical reasoning and decision-making skills are well known contributors to adverse outcomes in maternity care. Midwifery decision-making models share a common deficit: they are insufficiently detailed to guide reasoning processes for midwives in practice. For these reasons we wanted to explore if midwives actively engaged in clinical reasoning processes within their clinical practice and if so to what extent. The study was conducted using post structural, feminist methodology. to what extent do midwives engage in clinical reasoning processes when making decisions in the second stage labour? twenty-six practising midwives were interviewed. Feminist interpretive analysis was conducted by two researchers guided by the steps of a model of clinical reasoning process. Six narratives were excluded from analysis because they did not sufficiently address the research question. The midwives narratives were prepared via data reduction. A theoretically informed analysis and interpretation was conducted. using a feminist, interpretive approach we created a model of midwifery clinical reasoning grounded in the literature and consistent with the data. Thirteen of the 20 participant narratives demonstrate analytical clinical reasoning abilities but only nine completed the process and implemented the decision. Seven midwives used non-analytical decision-making without adequately checking against assessment data. over half of the participants demonstrated the ability to use clinical reasoning skills. Less than half of the midwives demonstrated clinical reasoning as their way of making decisions. The new model of Midwifery Clinical Reasoning includes 'intuition' as a valued way of knowing. Using intuition, however, should not replace clinical reasoning which promotes through decision-making can be made transparent and be consensually validated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social heuristics shape intuitive cooperation.

PubMed

Rand, David G; Peysakhovich, Alexander; Kraft-Todd, Gordon T; Newman, George E; Wurzbacher, Owen; Nowak, Martin A; Greene, Joshua D

2014-04-22

Cooperation is central to human societies. Yet relatively little is known about the cognitive underpinnings of cooperative decision making. Does cooperation require deliberate self-restraint? Or is spontaneous prosociality reined in by calculating self-interest? Here we present a theory of why (and for whom) intuition favors cooperation: cooperation is typically advantageous in everyday life, leading to the formation of generalized cooperative intuitions. Deliberation, by contrast, adjusts behaviour towards the optimum for a given situation. Thus, in one-shot anonymous interactions where selfishness is optimal, intuitive responses tend to be more cooperative than deliberative responses. We test this 'social heuristics hypothesis' by aggregating across every cooperation experiment using time pressure that we conducted over a 2-year period (15 studies and 6,910 decisions), as well as performing a novel time pressure experiment. Doing so demonstrates a positive average effect of time pressure on cooperation. We also find substantial variation in this effect, and show that this variation is partly explained by previous experience with one-shot lab experiments.

Is It Rational or Intuitive? Factors and Processes Affecting School Superintendents' Decisions When Facing Professional Dilemmas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Walter H.

2018-01-01

Given the critical impact of their decisions and of the community's perception of their performance, it is reasonable that school superintendents would seek to understand the factors that influence their decisions and the processes used to make them. The researcher in this study used a qualitative approach, interviewing 13 school superintendents…

Data Use by Teachers: The Impact of Motivation, Decision-Making Style, Supportive Relationships and Reflective Capacity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vanlommel, Kristin; Vanhoof, Jan; Van Petegem, Peter

2016-01-01

There is a growing expectation that schools should systematically collect and analyse data as a point of departure for decisions. However, research shows that teachers themselves are less convinced that they need to base their decisions on data, as they mainly rely on their intuition and experience. This article examines the extent to which…

Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times

PubMed Central

Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele; Hügelschäfer, Sabine

2016-01-01

We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias). All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question), shutting it down (creating a neutral question), or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question). For CRT questions, the differences in response times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower), evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and response times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used them as controls in regression analysis. PMID:27713710

Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times.

PubMed

Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele; Hügelschäfer, Sabine

2016-01-01

We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias). All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question), shutting it down (creating a neutral question), or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question). For CRT questions, the differences in response times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower), evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and response times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used them as controls in regression analysis.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

PubMed

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

PubMed Central

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

Deliberation favours social efficiency by making people disregard their relative shares: evidence from USA and India

PubMed Central

Corgnet, Brice; Espín, Antonio M.; Hernán-González, Roberto

2017-01-01

Groups make decisions on both the production and the distribution of resources. These decisions typically involve a tension between increasing the total level of group resources (i.e. social efficiency) and distributing these resources among group members (i.e. individuals' relative shares). This is the case because the redistribution process may destroy part of the resources, thus resulting in socially inefficient allocations. Here we apply a dual-process approach to understand the cognitive underpinnings of this fundamental tension. We conducted a set of experiments to examine the extent to which different allocation decisions respond to intuition or deliberation. In a newly developed approach, we assess intuition and deliberation at both the trait level (using the Cognitive Reflection Test, henceforth CRT) and the state level (through the experimental manipulation of response times). To test for robustness, experiments were conducted in two countries: the USA and India. Despite absolute-level differences across countries, in both locations we show that: (i) time pressure and low CRT scores are associated with individuals' concerns for their relative shares and (ii) time delay and high CRT scores are associated with individuals' concerns for social efficiency. These findings demonstrate that deliberation favours social efficiency by overriding individuals' intuitive tendency to focus on relative shares. PMID:28386421

A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

PubMed Central

Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

2017-01-01

This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model. PMID:29075221

Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach.

PubMed

Delaney, Rebecca; Strough, JoNell; Parker, Andrew M; de Bruin, Wandi Bruine

2015-10-01

Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1995) combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender. Self-report survey data were collected from 1,075 members of RAND's American Life Panel (56.2% female, 18-93 years, M age = 53.49). Three decision-making profiles were identified: affective/experiential, independent/self-controlled, and an interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Older people were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the independent/self-controlled profile. Women were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Interpersonally-oriented profiles are discussed as an overlooked but important dimension of how people make important decisions.

The role of moral utility in decision making: an interdisciplinary framework.

PubMed

Tobler, Philippe N; Kalis, Annemarie; Kalenscher, Tobias

2008-12-01

What decisions should we make? Moral values, rules, and virtues provide standards for morally acceptable decisions, without prescribing how we should reach them. However, moral theories do assume that we are, at least in principle, capable of making the right decisions. Consequently, an empirical investigation of the methods and resources we use for making moral decisions becomes relevant. We consider theoretical parallels of economic decision theory and moral utilitarianism and suggest that moral decision making may tap into mechanisms and processes that have originally evolved for nonmoral decision making. For example, the computation of reward value occurs through the combination of probability and magnitude; similar computation might also be used for determining utilitarian moral value. Both nonmoral and moral decisions may resort to intuitions and heuristics. Learning mechanisms implicated in the assignment of reward value to stimuli, actions, and outcomes may also enable us to determine moral value and assign it to stimuli, actions, and outcomes. In conclusion, we suggest that moral capabilities can employ and benefit from a variety of nonmoral decision-making and learning mechanisms.

Not all great minds think alike: systematic and intuitive cognitive styles.

PubMed

Sagiv, Lilach; Amit, Adi; Ein-Gar, Danit; Arieli, Sharon

2014-10-01

Individuals process information and make decisions in different ways. Some plan carefully and analyze information systematically, whereas others follow their instincts and do what "feels right." We aimed to deepen our understanding of the meaning of the intuitive versus systematic cognitive styles. Study 1 (N = 130, 39% female, M(age)  = 24) compared cognitive styles of arts, accounting, and mathematics students. Cognitive styles were associated with values (Study 2: N = 154, 123, 78; female = 59%, 49%, 85.9%; M(age)  = 22, 23, 27) and traits (Study 3: N = 77, 140, 151; female = 59%, 66%, 46%; M(age)  = 22, 25, 23), and they interacted with experience in predicting performance (Study 4: N = 63, 48% female, M(age)  = 23; Study 5: N = 44, 39% female, M(age)  = 23). All participants were Caucasian Israeli students. The systematic style was most frequent among accountants, and the intuitive style was most frequent among artists, validating the meaning of the styles. Systematic style was positively correlated with Conscientiousness and with security values and negatively correlated with stimulation values. The intuitive style had the opposite pattern and was also positively correlated with Extraversion. Experience improved rule-based performance among systematic individuals but had no effect on intuitive ones. Cognitive style is consistent with other personal attributes (traits and values), with implications for decision making and task performance. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prospect Theory and Interval-Valued Hesitant Set for Safety Evacuation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kou, Meng; Lu, Na

2018-01-01

The study applies the research results of prospect theory and multi attribute decision making theory, combined with the complexity, uncertainty and multifactor influence of the underground mine fire system and takes the decision makers’ psychological behavior of emotion and intuition into full account to establish the intuitionistic fuzzy multiple attribute decision making method that is based on the prospect theory. The model established by this method can explain the decision maker’s safety evacuation decision behavior in the complex system of underground mine fire due to the uncertainty of the environment, imperfection of the information and human psychological behavior and other factors.

Medical education and cognitive continuum theory: an alternative perspective on medical problem solving and clinical reasoning.

PubMed

Custers, Eugène J F M

2013-08-01

Recently, human reasoning, problem solving, and decision making have been viewed as products of two separate systems: "System 1," the unconscious, intuitive, or nonanalytic system, and "System 2," the conscious, analytic, or reflective system. This view has penetrated the medical education literature, yet the idea of two independent dichotomous cognitive systems is not entirely without problems.This article outlines the difficulties of this "two-system view" and presents an alternative, developed by K.R. Hammond and colleagues, called cognitive continuum theory (CCT). CCT is featured by three key assumptions. First, human reasoning, problem solving, and decision making can be arranged on a cognitive continuum, with pure intuition at one end, pure analysis at the other, and a large middle ground called "quasirationality." Second, the nature and requirements of the cognitive task, as perceived by the person performing the task, determine to a large extent whether a task will be approached more intuitively or more analytically. Third, for optimal task performance, this approach needs to match the cognitive properties and requirements of the task. Finally, the author makes a case that CCT is better able than a two-system view to describe medical problem solving and clinical reasoning and that it provides clear clues for how to organize training in clinical reasoning.

Clinical decision making in the recognition of dying: a qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Taylor, Paul; Dowding, Dawn; Johnson, Miriam

2017-01-25

Recognising dying is an essential clinical skill for general and palliative care professionals alike. Despite the high importance, both identification and good clinical care of the dying patient remains extremely difficult and often controversial in clinical practice. This study aimed to answer the question: "What factors influence medical and nursing staff when recognising dying in end-stage cancer and heart failure patients?" This study used a descriptive approach to decision-making theory. Participants were purposively sampled for profession (doctor or nurse), specialty (cardiology or oncology) and grade (senior vs junior). Recruitment continued until data saturation was reached. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with NHS medical and nursing staff in an NHS Trust which contained cancer and cardiology tertiary referral centres. An interview schedule was designed, based on decision-making literature. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed and analysed using thematic framework. Data were managed with Atlas.ti. Saturation was achieved with 19 participants (7 seniors; 8 intermediate level staff; 4 juniors). There were 11 oncologists (6 doctors, 5 nurses) and 8 cardiologists (3 doctors, 5 nurses). Six themes were generated: information used; decision processes; modifying factors; implementation; reflecting on decisions and related decisions. The decision process described was time-dependent, ongoing and iterative, and relies heavily on intuition. This study supports the need to recognise the strengths and weaknesses of expertise and intuition as part of the decision process, and of placing the recognition of dying in a time-dependent context. Clinicians should also be prepared to accept and convey the uncertainty surrounding these decisions, both in practice and in communication with patients and carers.

Intuitive Ethics: Understanding and Critiquing the Role of Intuition in Ethical Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Faber, Brenton

1999-01-01

Examines the role intuition plays in forming ethical decisions. Reviews examples of intuitive ethics in professional-communication research. Suggests that intuition is the naturalization of dominant cultural values and beliefs. Offers a pedagogical example of the theory and concludes by suggesting the value that a "critique of intuition"…

Simulation software: engineer processes before reengineering.

PubMed

Lepley, C J

2001-01-01

People make decisions all the time using intuition. But what happens when you are asked: "Are you sure your predictions are accurate? How much will a mistake cost? What are the risks associated with this change?" Once a new process is engineered, it is difficult to analyze what would have been different if other options had been chosen. Simulating a process can help senior clinical officers solve complex patient flow problems and avoid wasted efforts. Simulation software can give you the data you need to make decisions. The author introduces concepts, methodologies, and applications of computer aided simulation to illustrate their use in making decisions to improve workflow design.

Heuristic reasoning and cognitive biases: Are they hindrances to judgments and decision making in orthodontics?

PubMed

Hicks, E Preston; Kluemper, G Thomas

2011-03-01

Studies show that our brains use 2 modes of reasoning: heuristic (intuitive, automatic, implicit processing) and analytic (deliberate, rule-based, explicit processing). The use of intuition often dominates problem solving when innovative, creative thinking is required. Under conditions of uncertainty, we default to an even greater reliance on the heuristic processing. In health care settings and other such environments of increased importance, this mode becomes problematic. Since choice heuristics are quickly constructed from fragments of memory, they are often biased by prior evaluations of and preferences for the alternatives being considered. Therefore, a rigorous and systematic decision process notwithstanding, clinical judgments under uncertainty are often flawed by a number of unwitting biases. Clinical orthodontics is as vulnerable to this fundamental failing in the decision-making process as any other health care discipline. Several of the more common cognitive biases relevant to clinical orthodontics are discussed in this article. By raising awareness of these sources of cognitive errors in our clinical decision making, our intent was to equip the clinician to take corrective action to avoid them. Our secondary goal was to expose this important area of empirical research and encourage those with expertise in the cognitive sciences to explore, through further research, the possible relevance and impact of cognitive heuristics and biases on the accuracy of orthodontic judgments and decision making. Copyright © 2011 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elgin, Peter D.; Thomas, Rickey P.

2004-01-01

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach

PubMed Central

Delaney, Rebecca; Strough, JoNell; Parker, Andrew M.; de Bruin, Wandi Bruine

2015-01-01

Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1995) combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender. Self-report survey data were collected from 1,075 members of RAND’s American Life Panel (56.2% female, 18–93 years, Mage = 53.49). Three decision-making profiles were identified: affective/experiential, independent/self-controlled, and an interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Older people were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the independent/self-controlled profile. Women were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Interpersonally-oriented profiles are discussed as an overlooked but important dimension of how people make important decisions. PMID:26005238

Can procedural and substantive elements of decision-making be reconciled in assessments of mental capacity?

PubMed Central

Banner, Natalie F.

2016-01-01

Capacity legislation aims to protect individual autonomy and avoid undue paternalism as far as possible, partly through ensuring patients are not deemed to lack capacity because they make an unwise decision. To this end, the law employs a procedural test of capacity that excludes substantive judgments about patients’ decisions. However, clinical intuitions about patients’ capacity to make decisions about their treatment often conflict with a strict reading of the legal criteria for assessing capacity, particularly in psychiatry. In this article I argue that this tension arises because the procedural conception of capacity is inadequate and does not reflect the clinical or legal realities of assessing capacity. I propose that conceptualising capacity as having ‘recognisable reasons’ for a treatment decision provides a practical way of legitimately incorporating both procedural and substantive elements of decision-making into assessments of capacity. PMID:27891169

Spontaneous giving and calculated greed.

PubMed

Rand, David G; Greene, Joshua D; Nowak, Martin A

2012-09-20

Cooperation is central to human social behaviour. However, choosing to cooperate requires individuals to incur a personal cost to benefit others. Here we explore the cognitive basis of cooperative decision-making in humans using a dual-process framework. We ask whether people are predisposed towards selfishness, behaving cooperatively only through active self-control; or whether they are intuitively cooperative, with reflection and prospective reasoning favouring 'rational' self-interest. To investigate this issue, we perform ten studies using economic games. We find that across a range of experimental designs, subjects who reach their decisions more quickly are more cooperative. Furthermore, forcing subjects to decide quickly increases contributions, whereas instructing them to reflect and forcing them to decide slowly decreases contributions. Finally, an induction that primes subjects to trust their intuitions increases contributions compared with an induction that promotes greater reflection. To explain these results, we propose that cooperation is intuitive because cooperative heuristics are developed in daily life where cooperation is typically advantageous. We then validate predictions generated by this proposed mechanism. Our results provide convergent evidence that intuition supports cooperation in social dilemmas, and that reflection can undermine these cooperative impulses.

Intuition and rational decision-making in professional thinking: a false dichotomy?

PubMed

Easen, P; Wilcockson, J

1996-10-01

A number of researchers have sought to understand what enables the 'expert' professional to achieve a rapid and effortless understanding of presenting situations. Central to many of the explanations offered is the term 'intuition'. It might be thought, therefore, that the word describes a coherent concept embracing certain related features and used with consistency. A study of the literature suggests that this is not so. 'Intuition' is more than a contested concept, it is also used in ways that lack both clarity and coherence. Some of the confusion associated with the concept seems to stem from the belief that intuition is an irrational process. As a consequence, it is assumed that intuition can be neither fully understood nor explained. In this paper we discuss a number of issues relating to the nature of 'intuition'. We argue that intuition may be understood as an irrational process that has a rational basis. Intuitive thinking has certain essential features and involves the use of a sound, rational, relevant knowledge base in situations that, through experience, are so familiar that the person has learned how to recognize and act on appropriate patterns.

Swarm intelligence: when uncertainty meets conflict.

PubMed

Conradt, Larissa; List, Christian; Roper, Timothy J

2013-11-01

Good decision making is important for the survival and fitness of stakeholders, but decisions usually involve uncertainty and conflict. We know surprisingly little about profitable decision-making strategies in conflict situations. On the one hand, sharing decisions with others can pool information and decrease uncertainty (swarm intelligence). On the other hand, sharing decisions can hand influence to individuals whose goals conflict. Thus, when should an animal share decisions with others? Using a theoretical model, we show that, contrary to intuition, decision sharing by animals with conflicting goals often increases individual gains as well as decision accuracy. Thus, conflict-far from hampering effective decision making-can improve decision outcomes for all stakeholders, as long as they share large-scale goals. In contrast, decisions shared by animals without conflict were often surprisingly poor. The underlying mechanism is that animals with conflicting goals are less correlated in individual choice errors. These results provide a strong argument in the interest of all stakeholders for not excluding other (e.g., minority) factions from collective decisions. The observed benefits of including diverse factions among the decision makers could also be relevant to human collective decision making.

Corporate funding of human services agencies.

PubMed

Zippay, A

1992-05-01

This article reviews national trends in the organization of corporate giving to human services agencies, examines how corporations make funding decisions, and reports the results of a case study of philanthropic giving among 29 companies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The study found that most corporations use an informal rather than a formal process for making funding decisions, with many firms relying on tradition, social contacts, and intuition to guide allocations. Suggestions that social services administrators can use to enhance development planning at their agencies are provided.

Intuition and evidence--uneasy bedfellows?

PubMed Central

Greenhalgh, Trisha

2002-01-01

Intuition is a decision-making method that is used unconsciously by experienced practitioners but is inaccessible to the novice. It is rapid, subtle, contextual, and does not follow simple, cause-and-effect logic. Evidence-based medicine offers exciting opportunities_for improving patient outcomes, but the 'evidence-burdened' approach of the inexperienced, protocol-driven clinician is well documented Intuition is not unscientific. It is a highly creative process, fundamental to hypothesis generation in science. The experienced practitioner should generate and follow clinical hunches as well as (not instead of applying the deductive principles of evidence-based medicine. The educational research literature suggests that we can improve our intuitive powers through systematic critical reflection about intuitive judgements--for example, through creative writing and dialogue with professional colleagues. It is time to revive and celebrate clinical storytelling as a method for professional education and development. The stage is surely set for a new, improved--and, indeed, evidence-based--'Balint'group. PMID:12014539

Heuristic decision making in medicine

PubMed Central

Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

Heuristic decision making in medicine.

PubMed

Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-03-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

Understanding Decision Making in Critical Care

PubMed Central

Lighthall, Geoffrey K.; Vazquez-Guillamet, Cristina

2015-01-01

Background Human decision making involves the deliberate formulation of hypotheses and plans as well as the use of subconscious means of judging probability, likely outcome, and proper action. Rationale There is a growing recognition that intuitive strategies such as use of heuristics and pattern recognition described in other industries are applicable to high-acuity environments in medicine. Despite the applicability of theories of cognition to the intensive care unit, a discussion of decision-making strategies is currently absent in the critical care literature. Content This article provides an overview of known cognitive strategies, as well as a synthesis of their use in critical care. By understanding the ways by which humans formulate diagnoses and make critical decisions, we may be able to minimize errors in our own judgments as well as build training activities around known strengths and limitations of cognition. PMID:26387708

Climate, weather, and hops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

Health decision making: lynchpin of evidence-based practice.

PubMed

Spring, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers' intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed.

Health Decision Making: Lynchpin of Evidence-Based Practice

PubMed Central

Spring, Bonnie

2008-01-01

Health decision making is both the lynchpin and the least developed aspect of evidence-based practice. The evidence-based practice process requires integrating the evidence with consideration of practical resources and patient preferences and doing so via a process that is genuinely collaborative. Yet, the literature is largely silent about how to accomplish integrative, shared decision making. Implications for evidence-based practice are discussed for 2 theories of clinician decision making (expected utility and fuzzy trace) and 2 theories of patient health decision making (transtheoretical model and reasoned action). Three suggestions are offered. First, it would be advantageous to have theory-based algorithms that weight and integrate the 3 data strands (evidence, resources, preferences) in different decisional contexts. Second, patients, not providers, make the decisions of greatest impact on public health, and those decisions are behavioral. Consequently, theory explicating how provider-patient collaboration can influence patient lifestyle decisions made miles from the provider's office is greatly needed. Third, although the preponderance of data on complex decisions supports a computational approach, such an approach to evidence-based practice is too impractical to be widely applied at present. More troublesomely, until patients come to trust decisions made computationally more than they trust their providers’ intuitions, patient adherence will remain problematic. A good theory of integrative, collaborative health decision making remains needed. PMID:19015288

Decision-making in nursing practice: An integrative literature review.

PubMed

Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B

2018-03-01

To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient outcomes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Intuition and deliberation: two systems for strategizing in the brain.

PubMed

Kuo, Wen-Jui; Sjöström, Tomas; Chen, Yu-Ping; Wang, Yen-Hsiang; Huang, Chen-Ying

2009-04-24

Dual-process theories distinguish between intuition (fast and emotional) and reasoning (slow and controlled) as a basis for human decision-making. We contrast dominance-solvable games, which can be solved by step-by-step deliberative reasoning, with pure coordination games, which must be solved intuitively. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found that the middle frontal gyrus, the inferior parietal lobule, and the precuneus were more active in dominance-solvable games than in coordination games. The insula and anterior cingulate cortex showed the opposite pattern. Moreover, precuneus activity correlates positively with how "effortful" a dominance-solvable game is, whereas insula activity correlates positively with how "effortless" a coordination game is.

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory.

PubMed

Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

2014-12-01

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory's predictions about reliance on gist processing.

Enhanced decision making through neuroscience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott

2012-06-01

We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Setton, Roni; Wilhelms, Evan; Weldon, Becky; Chick, Christina; Reyna, Valerie

2017-01-01

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory’s predictions about reliance on gist processing. PMID:28725239

Decision-making under risk conditions is susceptible to interference by a secondary executive task.

PubMed

Starcke, Katrin; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Wolf, Oliver T; Altstötter-Gleich, Christine; Brand, Matthias

2011-05-01

Recent research suggests two ways of making decisions: an intuitive and an analytical one. The current study examines whether a secondary executive task interferes with advantageous decision-making in the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps executive functioning. One group of participants performed the original GDT solely, two groups performed either the GDT and a 1-back or a 2-back working memory task as a secondary task simultaneously. Results show that the group which performed the GDT and the secondary task with high executive load (2-back) decided less advantageously than the group which did not perform a secondary executive task. These findings give further evidence for the view that decision-making under risky conditions taps into the rational-analytical system which acts in a serial and not parallel way as performance on the GDT is disturbed by a parallel task that also requires executive resources.

Exogenous cortisol causes a shift from deliberative to intuitive thinking.

PubMed

Margittai, Zsofia; Nave, Gideon; Strombach, Tina; van Wingerden, Marijn; Schwabe, Lars; Kalenscher, Tobias

2016-02-01

People often rely on intuitive judgments at the expense of deliberate reasoning, but what determines the dominance of intuition over deliberation is not well understood. Here, we employed a psychopharmacological approach to unravel the role of two major endocrine stress mediators, cortisol and noradrenaline, in cognitive reasoning. Healthy participants received placebo, cortisol (hydrocortisone) and/or yohimbine, a drug that increases noradrenergic stimulation, before performing the cognitive reflection test (CRT). We found that cortisol impaired performance in the CRT by biasing responses toward intuitive, but incorrect answers. Elevated stimulation of the noradrenergic system, however, had no effect. We interpret our results in the context of the dual systems theory of judgment and decision making. We propose that cortisol causes a shift from deliberate, reflective cognition toward automatic, reflexive information processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avoiding bias in medical ethical decision-making. Lessons to be learnt from psychology research.

PubMed

Albisser Schleger, Heidi; Oehninger, Nicole R; Reiter-Theil, Stella

2011-05-01

When ethical decisions have to be taken in critical, complex medical situations, they often involve decisions that set the course for or against life-sustaining treatments. Therefore the decisions have far-reaching consequences for the patients, their relatives, and often for the clinical staff. Although the rich psychology literature provides evidence that reasoning may be affected by undesired influences that may undermine the quality of the decision outcome, not much attention has been given to this phenomenon in health care or ethics consultation. In this paper, we aim to contribute to the sensitization of the problem of systematic reasoning biases by showing how exemplary individual and group biases can affect the quality of decision-making on an individual and group level. We are addressing clinical ethicists as well as clinicians who guide complex decision-making processes of ethical significance. Knowledge regarding exemplary group psychological biases (e.g. conformity bias), and individual biases (e.g. stereotypes), will be taken from the disciplines of social psychology and cognitive decision science and considered in the field of ethical decision-making. Finally we discuss the influence of intuitive versus analytical (systematical) reasoning on the validity of ethical decision-making.

Intuition as authoritative knowledge in midwifery and homebirth.

PubMed

Davis-Floyd, R; Davis, E

1996-06-01

As defined by Jordan (1992, 1993[1978]), authoritative knowledge motivates decision and action. Based on interviews with 22 white middle-class midwives in the United States conducted between 1992 and 1993, this article explores the inner knowing that constitutes a primary source of authoritative knowledge for homebirthers but is granted no authority in the realm of technomedicine. The purpose of this article is to call attention to these midwives' utilization of and reliance on intuition as a guide to action and decision making during homebirths. The midwife-interviewees are highly literate and competent in technological skills and biomedical diagnosis, and are keenly aware of the cultural and legal risks they run when they cannot justify their actions during a birth in logical, rational terms. Nevertheless, the deep value they place on connection, in the context of their holistic model of birth and health care, leads them to listen to and follow their "inner voice" during birth, rather than operating only according to protocols and standard parameters for "normal birth". The nature of intuition and the reasons for and consequences of the general devaluation of intuitive thinking by the wider society are also considered.

Self-related factors and decision making styles among early adults.

PubMed

Batool, Naila; Riaz, Muhammad Naveed; Riaz, Muhammad Akram; Akhtar, Masud

2017-05-01

To examine the effect of self-related factors, including self-regulation, self-esteem and self-efficacy, on decision-making styles of early adults. The cross-sectional study was conducted from February to August, 2014 at four universities of Islamabad, Pakistan, and comprised adult students of both Social and Natural sciences. Data was collected through Self-Regulation Questionnaire, Self-Esteem Scale, Self-Efficacy Scale and the General Decision Making Styles Questionnaire. Data was subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Of the 300 participants, 160(53%) were men and 140(47%) were women. The overall mean age was 22.68±5.96 years. Besides, 170(56%) were studying Social sciences and 130(44%) Natural sciences. Self-regulation, self-esteem and self-efficacy positively predicted rational and intuitive style and negatively predicted avoidant and spontaneous style. Self-efficacy and self-regulation negatively predicted dependent style. Ensuring positive self-related factors affected adults' effective decision-making choices.

Expected utility violations evolve under status-based selection mechanisms.

PubMed

Dickson, Eric S

2008-10-07

The expected utility theory of decision making under uncertainty, a cornerstone of modern economics, assumes that humans linearly weight "utilities" for different possible outcomes by the probabilities with which these outcomes occur. Despite the theory's intuitive appeal, both from normative and from evolutionary perspectives, many experiments demonstrate systematic, though poorly understood, patterns of deviation from EU predictions. This paper offers a novel theoretical account of such patterns of deviation by demonstrating that EU violations can emerge from evolutionary selection when individual "status" affects inclusive fitness. In humans, battles for resources and social standing involve high-stakes decision making, and assortative mating ensures that status matters for fitness outcomes. The paper therefore proposes grounding the study of decision making under uncertainty in an evolutionary game-theoretic framework.

Human Decision Processes: Implications for SSA Support Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picciano, P.

2013-09-01

Despite significant advances in computing power and artificial intelligence (AI), few critical decisions are made without a human decision maker in the loop. Space Situational Awareness (SSA) missions are both critical and complex, typically adhering to the human-in-the-loop (HITL) model. The collection of human operators injects a needed diversity of expert knowledge, experience, and authority required to successfully fulfill SSA tasking. A wealth of literature on human decision making exists citing myriad empirical studies and offering a varied set of prescriptive and descriptive models of judgment and decision making (Hastie & Dawes, 2001; Baron, 2000). Many findings have been proven sufficiently robust to allow information architects or system/interface designers to take action to improve decision processes. For the purpose of discussion, these concepts are bifurcated in two groups: 1) vulnerabilities to mitigate, and 2) capabilities to augment. These vulnerabilities and capabilities refer specifically to the decision process and should not be confused with a shortcoming or skill of a specific human operator. Thus the framing of questions and orders, the automated tools with which to collaborate, priming and contextual data, and the delivery of information all play a critical role in human judgment and choice. Evaluating the merits of any decision can be elusive; in order to constrain this discussion, ‘rational choice' will tend toward the economic model characteristics such as maximizing utility and selection consistency (e.g., if A preferred to B, and B preferred to C, than A should be preferred to C). Simple decision models often encourage one to list the pros and cons of a decision, perhaps use a weighting schema, but one way or another weigh the future benefit (or harm) of making a selection. The result (sought by the rationalist models) should drive toward higher utility. Despite notable differences in researchers' theses (to be discussed in the full paper), one opinion shared is that the rational, economic, deliberate listing/evaluation of all options is NOT representative of how many decision are made. A framework gaining interest lately describes two systems predominantly at work: intuition and reasoning (Kahneman, 2003). Intuition is fast, automatic, and parallel contrasted with the more effortful, deliberative, and sequential reasoning. One of the issues of contention is that considerable research is stacked supporting both sides claiming that intuition is: • A hallmark of expertise responsible for rapid, optimal decisions in the face of adversity • A vulnerability where biases serve as decision traps leading to wrong choices Using seminal studies from a range of domains and tasking, potential solutions for SSA decision support will be offered. Important issues such as managing uncertainty, framing inquiries, and information architecture, and contextual cues will be discussed. The purpose is to provide awareness of the human limitations and capabilities in complex decision making so engineers and designers can consider such factors in their development of SSA tools.

Military Space Control: An Intuitive Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-04-01

information dominance is the impetus for an increasing military dependence on space services. This reliance on space systems is compelling military decision makers to make key strategic choices about the future of space control. The purpose of this paper is to analyze major aspects of military space control strategy and determine if U.S. initiatives are on track to meet the needs of the warfighter. To analyze U.S. military space control strategy, this research takes an intuitive approach based on a methodology introduced by Newman, Logan, and Hegarty in their book,

Corporate Funding of Human Services Agencies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zippay, Allison

1992-01-01

Conducted case study of philanthropic giving among 29 companies in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Found that most corporations used informal rather than formal process for making funding decisions, with many firms relying on tradition, social contacts, and intuition to guide allocations. Findings suggest ways that social services administrators can…

Co-evolution of cooperation and cognition: the impact of imperfect deliberation and context-sensitive intuition

PubMed Central

Kagan, Ari; Rand, David G.

2017-01-01

How does cognitive sophistication impact cooperation? We explore this question using a model of the co-evolution of cooperation and cognition. In our model, agents confront social dilemmas and coordination games, and make decisions using intuition or deliberation. Intuition is automatic and effortless, but relatively (although not necessarily completely) insensitive to context. Deliberation, conversely, is costly but relatively (although not necessarily perfectly) sensitive to context. We find that regardless of the sensitivity of intuition and imperfection of deliberation, deliberating undermines cooperation in social dilemmas, whereas deliberating can increase cooperation in coordination games if intuition is sufficiently sensitive. Furthermore, when coordination games are sufficiently likely, selection favours a strategy whose intuitive response ignores the contextual cues available and cooperates across contexts. Thus, we see how simple cognition can arise from active selection for simplicity, rather than just be forced to be simple due to cognitive constraints. Finally, we find that when deliberation is imperfect, the favoured strategy increases cooperation in social dilemmas (as a result of reducing deliberation) as the benefit of cooperation to the recipient increases. PMID:28330915

The transition to clinical expert: enhanced decision making for children aged less than 5 years attending the paediatric ED with acute respiratory conditions.

PubMed

Bowen, Leah; Shaw, Alison; Lyttle, Mark D; Purdy, Sarah

2017-02-01

Rates of unplanned paediatric admissions are persistently high. Many admissions are short-stay events, lasting less than 48 hours. This qualitative research explores factors that influence clinical decision making in the paediatric ED (PED) for children under 5 attending with acute respiratory conditions, focusing on how management decisions adapt with increasing experience. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 PED clinicians (doctors, emergency nurse practitioners and registered nurses) with varying levels of experience in paediatric emergency medicine (PEM), emergency medicine or paediatrics. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and analysed thematically. There were clear differences in decision-making approaches between experienced clinicians and junior staff. The latter were more risk adverse, relying heavily on guidelines, set admission criteria, clinical theory and second opinions. This was particularly true for doctors. 'Informal' learning was apparent in accounts from less-experienced doctors and nurses, whereby tacit knowledge and risk management played an increasing role in the development of clinical intuition that permitted rapid assessment and treatment of young patients. The emergence of intuition entwined with approaches to risk management and the role of these skills in clinical decision making, carry implications for the development of training programmes for clinicians working in PEM. Enhanced training for such groups to permit development of the supplementary skills described in this study could have the ability to improve care delivery and even reduce paediatric admissions. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The Reluctant Learner.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mamchur, Carolyn

Carl Jung labeled people who use sensing or intuition as a preferred function for dealing with their environment as "perceiving" types who prefer to process information, and those whose dominant function is thinking or feeling as "judging" types who prefer to make decisions. The outstanding quality of perceiving types is their…

Decision-making theories and their usefulness to the midwifery profession both in terms of midwifery practice and the education of midwives.

PubMed

Jefford, Elaine; Fahy, Kathleen; Sundin, Deborah

2011-06-01

What are the strengths and limitations of existing Decision-Making Theories as a basis for guiding best practice clinical decision-making within a framework of midwifery philosophy? Each theory is compared in relation with how well they provide a teachable framework for midwifery clinical reasoning that is consistent with midwifery philosophy. Hypothetico-Deductive Theory, from which medical clinical reasoning is based; intuitive decision-making; Dual Processing Theory; The International Confederation of Midwives Clinical Decision-Making Framework; Australian Nursing and Midwifery Council Midwifery Practice Decisions Flowchart and Midwifery Practice. Best practice midwifery clinical Decision-Making Theory needs to give guidance about: (i) effective use of cognitive reasoning processes; (ii) how to include contextual and emotional factors; (iii) how to include the interests of the baby as an integral part of the woman; (iv) decision-making in partnership with woman; and (v) how to recognize/respond to clinical situations outside the midwife's legal/personal scope of practice. No existing Decision-Making Theory meets the needs of midwifery. Medical clinical reasoning has a good contribution to make in terms of cognitive reasoning processes. Two limitations of medical clinical reasoning are its reductionistic focus and privileging of reason to the exclusion of emotional and contextual factors. Hypothetico-deductive clinical reasoning is a necessary but insufficient condition for best practice clinical decision-making in midwifery. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Interpersonal relationship modulates the behavioral and neural responses during moral decision-making.

PubMed

Zhan, Youlong; Xiao, Xiao; Li, Jin; Liu, Lei; Chen, Jie; Fan, Wei; Zhong, Yiping

2018-04-13

Interpersonal relationship (IR) may play an important role in moral decision-making. However, it is little known about how IR influences neural and behavioral responses during moral decision-making. The present study utilized the dilemma scenario-priming paradigm to examine the time course of the different intimate IR (friend, acquaintance, or stranger) impacts on the emotional and cognitive processes during moral decision-making. Results showed that participants made less altruistic decisions with increased decision times and experienced more unpleasure for strangers versus friends and acquaintances. Moreover, at the early moral intuitional process, there was no significance difference observed at N1 under different intimate IR; however, at the emotional process, larger P260 which reflects the dilemma conflicts and negative emotional responses, was elicited when moral decision-making for strangers; at the later cognitive process, such difference was also observed at LPP (300-450 ms) which indexes the later top-down cognitive appraisal and reasoning processes. However, such differences were not observed between friends and acquaintances. Results indicate that IR modulates the emotional and cognitive processes during moral decision-making, suggesting that the closer the IR is, the weaker the dilemma conflicts and emotional responses are, and the more efficient this conflicts are solved. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conceptualizing Surrogate Decision-Making at End of Life in the Intensive Care Unit using Cognitive Task Analysis

PubMed Central

Dionne-Odom, J. Nicholas; Willis, Danny G.; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J.

2014-01-01

Background Surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Purpose Identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Method Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis (CTA) interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center’s ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semi-structured CTA interviews. Discussion The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions: gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions impact a SDM’s judgment about the acceptability of either the patient’s medical treatments or his or her condition. Conclusion The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. PMID:25982772

Conceptualizing surrogate decision making at end of life in the intensive care unit using cognitive task analysis.

PubMed

Dionne-Odom, J Nicholas; Willis, Danny G; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J

2015-01-01

Surrogate decision makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. To identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center's ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semistructured cognitive task analysis interviews. The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions (gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions) impact an SDM's judgment about the acceptability of either the patient's medical treatments or his or her condition. The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Planning for Success: Integrating Analysis with Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goho, James; Webb, Ken

2003-01-01

Describes a successful strategic planning process at a large community college, which linked the analytic inputs of research with the authority and intuition of leaders. Reports key factors attributed to the process' success, including a collegial and organized structure, detailed project management plans, and confidence in the environmental scan.…

Conflict Monitoring in Dual Process Theories of Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Neys, Wim; Glumicic, Tamara

2008-01-01

Popular dual process theories have characterized human thinking as an interplay between an intuitive-heuristic and demanding-analytic reasoning process. Although monitoring the output of the two systems for conflict is crucial to avoid decision making errors there are some widely different views on the efficiency of the process. Kahneman…

A Guide to Personal, Business and Social Forecasting and Survival.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loye, David

1983-01-01

By thinking about and trying to predict the future, we force ourselves to articulate our feelings and thoughts about that future. A technique using intuitive and logical thinking based on right brain-left brain differences is proposed to aid in decision making by both groups and individuals. (Author/IS)

QUALITY ASSURANCE: THE THREAD THAT WEAVES TOGETHER THE FABRIC OF DIVERSE DISCIPLINES

EPA Science Inventory

Mature Quality Assurance (QA) programs do not call for high quality! However, they most often demand known quality. We can intuitively sense quality in our daily lives.

Protection of the environment is, in part, dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Wh...

Developing Intuitive Reasoning with Graphs to Support Science Arguments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grueber, David

2011-01-01

Graphs are important for supporting critical thinking and scientific argumentation because students can use them to reason, make judgments and decisions, and solve problems like a scientist (Connery 2007). Yet teaching students how to use math to actually think critically continues to be difficult for teachers. This article describes two…

Describing the Process of Adopting Nutrition and Fitness Apps: Behavior Stage Model Approach

PubMed Central

Sproesser, Gudrun; Schupp, Harald T; Renner, Britta

2018-01-01

Background Although mobile technologies such as smartphone apps are promising means for motivating people to adopt a healthier lifestyle (mHealth apps), previous studies have shown low adoption and continued use rates. Developing the means to address this issue requires further understanding of mHealth app nonusers and adoption processes. This study utilized a stage model approach based on the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM), which proposes that people pass through qualitatively different motivational stages when adopting a behavior. Objective To establish a better understanding of between-stage transitions during app adoption, this study aimed to investigate the adoption process of nutrition and fitness app usage, and the sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics and decision-making style preferences of people at different adoption stages. Methods Participants (N=1236) were recruited onsite within the cohort study Konstanz Life Study. Use of mobile devices and nutrition and fitness apps, 5 behavior adoption stages of using nutrition and fitness apps, preference for intuition and deliberation in eating decision-making (E-PID), healthy eating style, sociodemographic variables, and body mass index (BMI) were assessed. Results Analysis of the 5 behavior adoption stages showed that stage 1 (“unengaged”) was the most prevalent motivational stage for both nutrition and fitness app use, with half of the participants stating that they had never thought about using a nutrition app (52.41%, 533/1017), whereas less than one-third stated they had never thought about using a fitness app (29.25%, 301/1029). “Unengaged” nonusers (stage 1) showed a higher preference for an intuitive decision-making style when making eating decisions, whereas those who were already “acting” (stage 4) showed a greater preference for a deliberative decision-making style (F4,1012=21.83, P<.001). Furthermore, participants differed widely in their readiness to adopt nutrition and fitness apps, ranging from having “decided to” but not yet begun to act (stage 2; nutrition: 6.88%, 70/1017; fitness: 9.23%, 95/1029) to being “disengaged” following previous adoption (stage 5; nutrition: 13.77%, 140/1017; fitness: 15.06%, 155/1029). Conclusions Using a behavior stage model approach to describe the process of adopting nutrition and fitness apps revealed motivational stage differences between nonusers (being “unengaged,” having “decided not to act,” having “decided to act,” and being “disengaged”), which might contribute to a better understanding of the process of adopting mHealth apps and thus inform the future development of digital interventions. This study highlights that new user groups might be better reached by apps designed to address a more intuitive decision-making style. PMID:29535078

Describing the Process of Adopting Nutrition and Fitness Apps: Behavior Stage Model Approach.

PubMed

König, Laura M; Sproesser, Gudrun; Schupp, Harald T; Renner, Britta

2018-03-13

Although mobile technologies such as smartphone apps are promising means for motivating people to adopt a healthier lifestyle (mHealth apps), previous studies have shown low adoption and continued use rates. Developing the means to address this issue requires further understanding of mHealth app nonusers and adoption processes. This study utilized a stage model approach based on the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM), which proposes that people pass through qualitatively different motivational stages when adopting a behavior. To establish a better understanding of between-stage transitions during app adoption, this study aimed to investigate the adoption process of nutrition and fitness app usage, and the sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics and decision-making style preferences of people at different adoption stages. Participants (N=1236) were recruited onsite within the cohort study Konstanz Life Study. Use of mobile devices and nutrition and fitness apps, 5 behavior adoption stages of using nutrition and fitness apps, preference for intuition and deliberation in eating decision-making (E-PID), healthy eating style, sociodemographic variables, and body mass index (BMI) were assessed. Analysis of the 5 behavior adoption stages showed that stage 1 ("unengaged") was the most prevalent motivational stage for both nutrition and fitness app use, with half of the participants stating that they had never thought about using a nutrition app (52.41%, 533/1017), whereas less than one-third stated they had never thought about using a fitness app (29.25%, 301/1029). "Unengaged" nonusers (stage 1) showed a higher preference for an intuitive decision-making style when making eating decisions, whereas those who were already "acting" (stage 4) showed a greater preference for a deliberative decision-making style (F 4,1012 =21.83, P<.001). Furthermore, participants differed widely in their readiness to adopt nutrition and fitness apps, ranging from having "decided to" but not yet begun to act (stage 2; nutrition: 6.88%, 70/1017; fitness: 9.23%, 95/1029) to being "disengaged" following previous adoption (stage 5; nutrition: 13.77%, 140/1017; fitness: 15.06%, 155/1029). Using a behavior stage model approach to describe the process of adopting nutrition and fitness apps revealed motivational stage differences between nonusers (being "unengaged," having "decided not to act," having "decided to act," and being "disengaged"), which might contribute to a better understanding of the process of adopting mHealth apps and thus inform the future development of digital interventions. This study highlights that new user groups might be better reached by apps designed to address a more intuitive decision-making style. ©Laura M König, Gudrun Sproesser, Harald T Schupp, Britta Renner. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 13.03.2018.

Nurses' decision-making process in cases of physical restraint in acute elderly care: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Goethals, S; Dierckx de Casterlé, B; Gastmans, C

2013-05-01

The increasing vulnerability of patients in acute elderly care requires constant critical reflection in ethically charged situations such as when employing physical restraint. Qualitative evidence concerning nurses' decision making in cases of physical restraint is limited and fragmented. A thorough understanding of nurses' decision-making process could be useful to understand how nurses reason and make decisions in ethically laden situations. The aims of this study were to explore and describe nurses' decision-making process in cases of physical restraint. We used a qualitative interview design inspired by the Grounded Theory approach. Data analysis was guided by the Qualitative Analysis Guide of Leuven. Twelve hospitals geographically spread throughout the five provinces of Flanders, Belgium. Twenty-one acute geriatric nurses interviewed between October 2009 and April 2011 were purposively and theoretically selected, with the aim of including nurses having a variety of characteristics and experiences concerning decisions on using physical restraint. In cases of physical restraint in acute elderly care, nurses' decision making was never experienced as a fixed decision but rather as a series of decisions. Decision making was mostly reasoned upon and based on rational arguments; however, decisions were also made routinely and intuitively. Some nurses felt very certain about their decisions, while others experienced feelings of uncertainty regarding their decisions. Nurses' decision making is an independent process that requires nurses to obtain a good picture of the patient, to be constantly observant, and to assess and reassess the patient's situation. Coming to thoughtful and individualized decisions requires major commitment and constant critical reflection. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-formal learning and tacit knowledge in professional work.

PubMed

Eraut, M

2000-03-01

This paper explores the conceptual and methodological problems arising from several empirical investigations of professional education and learning in the workplace. 1. To clarify the multiple meanings accorded to terms such as 'non-formal learning', 'implicit learning' and 'tacit knowledge', their theoretical assumptions and the range of phenomena to which they refer. 2. To discuss their implications for professional practice. A largely theoretical analysis of issues and phenomena arising from empirical investigations. The author's typology of non-formal learning distinguishes between implicit learning, reactive on-the-spot learning and deliberative learning. The significance of the last is commonly overemphasized. The problematic nature of tacit knowledge is discussed with respect to both detecting it and representing it. Three types of tacit knowledge are discussed: tacit understanding of people and situations, routinized actions and the tacit rules that underpin intuitive decision-making. They come together when professional performance involves sequences of routinized action punctuated by rapid intuitive decisions based on tacit understanding of the situation. Four types of process are involved--reading the situation, making decisions, overt activity and metacognition--and three modes of cognition--intuitive, analytic and deliberative. The balance between these modes depends on time, experience and complexity. Where rapid action dominates, periods of deliberation are needed to maintain critical control. Finally the role of both formal and informal social knowledge is discussed; and it is argued that situated learning often leads not to local conformity but to greater individual variation as people's careers take them through a series of different contexts. This abstract necessarily simplifies a more complex analysis in the paper itself.

User Driven Data Mining, Visualization and Decision Making for NOAA Observing System and Data Investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austin, M.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) observing system enterprise represents a $2.4B annual investment. Earth observations from these systems are foundational to NOAA's mission to describe, understand, and predict the Earth's environment. NOAA's decision makers are charged with managing this complex portfolio of observing systems to serve the national interest effectively and efficiently. The Technology Planning & Integration for Observation (TPIO) Office currently maintains an observing system portfolio for NOAA's validated user observation requirements, observing capabilities, and resulting data products and services. TPIO performs data analytics to provide NOAA leadership business case recommendations for making sound budgetary decisions. Over the last year, TPIO has moved from massive spreadsheets to intuitive dashboards that enable Federal agencies as well as the general public the ability to explore user observation requirements and environmental observing systems that monitor and predict changes in the environment. This change has led to an organizational data management shift to analytics and visualizations by allowing analysts more time to focus on understanding the data, discovering insights, and effectively communicating the information to decision makers. Moving forward, the next step is to facilitate a cultural change toward self-serve data sharing across NOAA, other Federal agencies, and the public using intuitive data visualizations that answer relevant business questions for users of NOAA's Observing System Enterprise. Users and producers of environmental data will become aware of the need for enhancing communication to simplify information exchange to achieve multipurpose goals across a variety of disciplines. NOAA cannot achieve its goal of producing environmental intelligence without data that can be shared by multiple user communities. This presentation will describe where we are on this journey and will provide examples of these visualizations, promoting a better understanding of NOAA's environmental sensing capabilities that enable improved communication to decision makers in an effective and intuitive manner.

Can cognitive psychological research on reasoning enhance the discussion around moral judgments?

PubMed

Bialek, Michal; Terbeck, Sylvia

2016-08-01

In this article we will demonstrate how cognitive psychological research on reasoning and decision making could enhance discussions and theories of moral judgments. In the first part, we will present recent dual-process models of moral judgments and describe selected studies which support these approaches. However, we will also present data that contradict the model predictions, suggesting that approaches to moral judgment might be more complex. In the second part, we will show how cognitive psychological research on reasoning might be helpful in understanding moral judgments. Specifically, we will highlight approaches addressing the interaction between intuition and reflection. Our data suggest that a sequential model of engaging in deliberation might have to be revised. Therefore, we will present an approach based on Signal Detection Theory and on intuitive conflict detection. We predict that individuals arrive at the moral decisions by comparing potential action outcomes (e.g., harm caused and utilitarian gain) simultaneously. The response criterion can be influenced by intuitive processes, such as heuristic moral value processing, or considerations of harm caused.

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Autonomy, evidence and intuition: nurses and decision-making.

PubMed

Traynor, Michael; Boland, Maggie; Buus, Niels

2010-07-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to examine how nurses represent professional clinical decision-making processes, and to determine what light Jamous and Peloille's 'Indeterminacy/Technicality ratio' concept can shed on these representations. Classic definitions of professional work feature autonomy of decision-making and control over the field of work. Sociologists Jamous and Peloille have described professional work as being high in 'indeterminacy' (the use of tacit judgements) relative to technicality (activity able to be codified). The rise of the evidence-based practice movement has been seen as increasing the realm of technical decision-making in healthcare, and it is relevant to analyse nurses' professional discourse and study how they respond to this increase. Three focus groups with qualified nurses attending post-qualifying courses at a London university were held in 2008. Participants were asked to talk about influences on their decision-making. The discussions were tape-recorded, transcribed and subjected to discourse analysis. Participants described their decision-making as influenced by both indeterminate and technical features. They acknowledged useful influences from both domains, but pointed to their personal 'experience' as the final arbiter of decision-making. Their accounts of decision-making created a sense of professional autonomy while at the same time protecting it against external critique. Pre- and post-registration nurse education could encourage robust discussion of the definition and roles of 'irrational' aspects of decision-making and how these might be understood as components of credible professional practice.

Intuition in medical practice: A reflection on Donald Schön's reflective practitioner.

PubMed

Mickleborough, Tim

2015-01-01

In a recent commentary, Dr. Abhishek Biswas asks the question whether physicians should rely on their "gut feeling" when making clinical decisions. Biswas describes a situation where his intuition resulted in an immediate course of action that prompted urgent medical attention for a patient who had "routine" pain. Inspired by the author's account, I would like to further Biswas' discussion and examine its importance using the educational theories of Donald Schön and his concept of the reflective practitioner. Schön argues that technical knowledge alone is not sufficient to solve the complex problems that professionals face on a daily basis and intuition, developed through a reflective practice, is crucial for any professional's practice, especially in a time of greater uncertainty in the workplace.

More heads choose better than one: Group decision making can eliminate probability matching.

PubMed

Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

2016-06-01

Probability matching is a robust and common failure to adhere to normative predictions in sequential decision making. We show that this choice anomaly is nearly eradicated by gathering individual decision makers into small groups and asking the groups to decide. The group choice advantage emerged both when participants generated responses for an entire sequence of choices without outcome feedback (Exp. 1a) and when participants made trial-by-trial predictions with outcome feedback after each decision (Exp. 1b). We show that the dramatic improvement observed in group settings stands in stark contrast to a complete lack of effective solitary deliberation. These findings suggest a crucial role of group discussion in alleviating the impact of hasty intuitive responses in tasks better suited to careful deliberation.

Losing Your Gut Feelings. Intuition in Depression

PubMed Central

Remmers, Carina; Michalak, Johannes

2016-01-01

Whereas in basic research, intuition has become a topic of great interest, clinical research and depression research in specific have not applied to the topic of intuition, yet. This is astonishing because a well-known phenomenon during depression is that patients have difficulties to judge and decide. In contrast to healthy individuals who take most daily life decisions intuitively (Kahneman, 2011), depressed individuals seem to have difficulties to come to fast and adaptive decisions. The current article pursues three goals. First, our aim is to establish the hypothesis that intuition is impaired in depression against the background of influential theoretical accounts as well as empirical evidence from basic and clinical research. The second aim of the current paper is to provide explanations for recent findings on the depression-intuition interplay and to present directions for future research that may help to broaden our understanding of decision difficulties in depression. Third, we seek to propose ideas on how therapeutic interventions can support depressed individuals in taking better decisions. Even though our knowledge regarding this topic is still limited, we will tentatively launch the idea that an important first step may be to enhance patients’ access to intuitions. Overall, this paper seeks to introduce the topic of intuition to clinical research on depression and to hereby set the stage for upcoming theory and practice. PMID:27602015

Losing Your Gut Feelings. Intuition in Depression.

PubMed

Remmers, Carina; Michalak, Johannes

2016-01-01

Whereas in basic research, intuition has become a topic of great interest, clinical research and depression research in specific have not applied to the topic of intuition, yet. This is astonishing because a well-known phenomenon during depression is that patients have difficulties to judge and decide. In contrast to healthy individuals who take most daily life decisions intuitively (Kahneman, 2011), depressed individuals seem to have difficulties to come to fast and adaptive decisions. The current article pursues three goals. First, our aim is to establish the hypothesis that intuition is impaired in depression against the background of influential theoretical accounts as well as empirical evidence from basic and clinical research. The second aim of the current paper is to provide explanations for recent findings on the depression-intuition interplay and to present directions for future research that may help to broaden our understanding of decision difficulties in depression. Third, we seek to propose ideas on how therapeutic interventions can support depressed individuals in taking better decisions. Even though our knowledge regarding this topic is still limited, we will tentatively launch the idea that an important first step may be to enhance patients' access to intuitions. Overall, this paper seeks to introduce the topic of intuition to clinical research on depression and to hereby set the stage for upcoming theory and practice.

Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

PubMed

Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

2016-06-01

Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

Models of Affective Decision Making

PubMed Central

Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali

2016-01-01

Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

Altered moral decision-making in patients with idiopathic Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Rosen, Jan B; Rott, Elisa; Ebersbach, Georg; Kalbe, Elke

2015-10-01

Moral decision-making essentially contributes to social conduct. Although patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) show deficits in (non-moral) decision making and related neuropsychological functions, i.e. executive functions, theory of mind (ToM), and empathy, moral decision-making has rarely been examined in PD patients. We examined possible alterations of moral decision-making and associated functions in PD. Twenty non-demented PD patients and 23 age- and education-matched healthy control participants were examined with tests that assess reasoning, executive functions (set-shifting and planning), ToM and empathy, decision-making under risk, and moral intuitions. Moral decision-making was assessed with a close-to-everyday moral dilemma paradigm that opposes socially oriented "altruistic" choices to self-beneficial "egoistic" choices in 20 moral dilemma short stories (10 high and 10 low emotional). Concurrently, electrodermal activity was recorded. PD patients made more egoistic moral decisions than healthy controls. Remarkably, while reasoning, planning and empathy correlated with moral decision-making in the control group, in the PD group neuropsychological functions and dopaminergic medication did not correlate with moral decisions. No evidence for reduced skin conductance responses in PD patients and no relationships between skin conductance responses and moral decisions were observed. This study provides evidence for moral decision-making dysfunctions in PD patients who made more egoistic moral decisions. As a possible underlying mechanism, reduced exercise of attentional control due to a dysfunctional interplay between the prefrontal cortex and the basal ganglia is discussed. Future research will have to determine the impact of PD patients' moral decision-making dysfunctions on everyday life and further determine correlates of the deficits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Positive emotional context eliminates the framing effect in decision-making.

PubMed

Cassotti, Mathieu; Habib, Marianne; Poirel, Nicolas; Aïte, Ania; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

2012-10-01

Dual-process theories have suggested that emotion plays a key role in the framing effect in decision-making. However, little is known about the potential impact of a specific positive or negative emotional context on this bias. We investigated this question with adult participants using an emotional priming paradigm. First, participants were presented with positive or negative affective pictures (i.e., pleasant vs. unpleasant photographs). Afterward, participants had to perform a financial decision-making task that was unrelated to the pictures previously presented. The results revealed that the presentation framed in terms of gain or loss no longer affected subjects' decision-making following specific exposure to emotionally pleasant pictures. Interestingly, a positive emotional context did not globally influence risk-taking behavior but specifically decreased the risk propensity in the loss frame. This finding confirmed that a positive emotional context can reduce loss aversion, and it strongly reinforced the dual-process view that the framing effect stems from an affective heuristic belonging to intuitive System 1.

The foreign-language effect: thinking in a foreign tongue reduces decision biases.

PubMed

Keysar, Boaz; Hayakawa, Sayuri L; An, Sun Gyu

2012-06-01

Would you make the same decisions in a foreign language as you would in your native tongue? It may be intuitive that people would make the same choices regardless of the language they are using, or that the difficulty of using a foreign language would make decisions less systematic. We discovered, however, that the opposite is true: Using a foreign language reduces decision-making biases. Four experiments show that the framing effect disappears when choices are presented in a foreign tongue. Whereas people were risk averse for gains and risk seeking for losses when choices were presented in their native tongue, they were not influenced by this framing manipulation in a foreign language. Two additional experiments show that using a foreign language reduces loss aversion, increasing the acceptance of both hypothetical and real bets with positive expected value. We propose that these effects arise because a foreign language provides greater cognitive and emotional distance than a native tongue does.

Rational and experiential decision-making preferences of third-year student pharmacists.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Jacqueline E; Cox, Wendy C; Williams, Charlene R; Shepherd, Greene

2014-08-15

To examine the rational (systematic and rule-based) and experiential (fast and intuitive) decision-making preferences of student pharmacists, and to compare these preferences to the preferences of other health professionals and student populations. The Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI-40), a validated psychometric tool, was administered electronically to 114 third-year (P3) student pharmacists. Student demographics and preadmission data were collected. The REI-40 results were compared with student demographics and admissions data to identify possible correlations between these factors. Mean REI-40 rational scores were higher than experiential scores. Rational scores for younger students were significantly higher than students aged 30 years and older (p<0.05). No significant differences were found based on gender, race, or the presence of a prior degree. All correlations between REI-40 scores and incoming grade point average (GPA) and Pharmacy College Admission Test (PCAT) scores were weak. Student pharmacists favored rational decision making over experiential decision making, which was similar to results of studies done of other health professions.

The neural basis of intuitive and counterintuitive moral judgment.

PubMed

Kahane, Guy; Wiech, Katja; Shackel, Nicholas; Farias, Miguel; Savulescu, Julian; Tracey, Irene

2012-04-01

Neuroimaging studies on moral decision-making have thus far largely focused on differences between moral judgments with opposing utilitarian (well-being maximizing) and deontological (duty-based) content. However, these studies have investigated moral dilemmas involving extreme situations, and did not control for two distinct dimensions of moral judgment: whether or not it is intuitive (immediately compelling to most people) and whether it is utilitarian or deontological in content. By contrasting dilemmas where utilitarian judgments are counterintuitive with dilemmas in which they are intuitive, we were able to use functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify the neural correlates of intuitive and counterintuitive judgments across a range of moral situations. Irrespective of content (utilitarian/deontological), counterintuitive moral judgments were associated with greater difficulty and with activation in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting that such judgments may involve emotional conflict; intuitive judgments were linked to activation in the visual and premotor cortex. In addition, we obtained evidence that neural differences in moral judgment in such dilemmas are largely due to whether they are intuitive and not, as previously assumed, to differences between utilitarian and deontological judgments. Our findings therefore do not support theories that have generally associated utilitarian and deontological judgments with distinct neural systems.

The neural basis of intuitive and counterintuitive moral judgment

PubMed Central

Wiech, Katja; Shackel, Nicholas; Farias, Miguel; Savulescu, Julian; Tracey, Irene

2012-01-01

Neuroimaging studies on moral decision-making have thus far largely focused on differences between moral judgments with opposing utilitarian (well-being maximizing) and deontological (duty-based) content. However, these studies have investigated moral dilemmas involving extreme situations, and did not control for two distinct dimensions of moral judgment: whether or not it is intuitive (immediately compelling to most people) and whether it is utilitarian or deontological in content. By contrasting dilemmas where utilitarian judgments are counterintuitive with dilemmas in which they are intuitive, we were able to use functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify the neural correlates of intuitive and counterintuitive judgments across a range of moral situations. Irrespective of content (utilitarian/deontological), counterintuitive moral judgments were associated with greater difficulty and with activation in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting that such judgments may involve emotional conflict; intuitive judgments were linked to activation in the visual and premotor cortex. In addition, we obtained evidence that neural differences in moral judgment in such dilemmas are largely due to whether they are intuitive and not, as previously assumed, to differences between utilitarian and deontological judgments. Our findings therefore do not support theories that have generally associated utilitarian and deontological judgments with distinct neural systems. PMID:21421730

Dual-stream modulation failure: a novel hypothesis for the formation and maintenance of delusions in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Speechley, William J; Ngan, Elton T C

2008-01-01

Delusions, a cardinal feature of schizophrenia, are characterized by the development and preservation of false beliefs despite reason and evidence to the contrary. A number of cognitive models have made important contributions to our understanding of delusions, though it remains unclear which core cognitive processes are malfunctioning to enable individuals with delusions to form and maintain erroneous beliefs. We propose a modified dual-stream processing model that provides a viable and testable mechanism that can account for this debilitating symptom. Dual-stream models divide decision-making into two streams: a fast, intuitive and automatic form of processing (Stream 1); and a slower, conscious and deliberative process (Stream 2). Our novel model proposes two key influences on the way these streams interact in everyday decision-making: conflict and emotion. Conflict: in most decision-making scenarios one obvious answer presents itself and the two streams converge onto the same conclusion. However, in instances where there are competing alternative possibilities, an individual often experiences dissonance, or a sense of conflict. The detection of this conflict biases processing towards the more deliberative Stream 2. Emotion: highly emotional states can result in behavior that is reflexive and action-oriented. This may be due to the power of emotionally valenced stimuli to bias reasoning towards Stream 1. We propose that in schizophrenia, an abnormal response to these two influences results in a pathological schism between Stream 1 and Stream 2, enabling erroneous intuitive explanations to coexist with contrary logical explanations of the same event. Specifically, we suggest that delusions are the result of a failure to reconcile the two streams due to both a failure of conflict to bias decision-making towards Stream 2 and an accentuated emotional bias towards Stream 1.

A General Instance-Based Learning Framework for Studying Intuitive Decision-Making in a Cognitive Architecture (Open Access, Publisher’s Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-19

decision theory (Berger, 1985), and quantum probability theory (Busemeyer, Pothos, Franco, & Trueblood, 2011). Similarly, explanations in the 1 rch in...trengths of associations) are consciously inaccessible and con- titute the implicit knowledge of the model (Gonzalez & Lebiere, 005; Lebiere, Wallach...in memory (Lebiere et al., 2013). It is important to note hat this wholly implicit process is not consciously available to the odel. The second level

Ignorance is not bliss: Statistical power is not probability of trial success.

PubMed

Zierhut, M L; Bycott, P; Gibbs, M A; Smith, B P; Vicini, P

2016-04-01

The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dialog on how assurance should be incorporated into a quantitative decision approach for clinical development and trial design that uses all available information. © 2015 ASCPT.

Valuing information for sewer replacement decisions.

PubMed

van Riel, Wouter; Langeveld, Jeroen; Herder, Paulien; Clemens, François

Decision-making for sewer asset management is partially based on intuition and often lacks explicit argumentation, hampering decision transparency and reproducibility. This is not to be preferred in light of public accountability and cost-effectiveness. It is unknown to what extent each decision criterion is appreciated by decision-makers. Further insight into this relative importance improves understanding of decision-making of sewer system managers. As such, a digital questionnaire (response ratio 43%), containing pairwise comparisons between 10 relevant information sources, was sent to all 407 municipalities in the Netherlands to analyse the relative importance and assess whether a shared frame of reasoning is present. Thurstone's law of comparative judgment was used for analysis, combined with several consistency tests. Results show that camera inspections were valued highest, while pipe age was considered least important. The respondents were pretty consistent per individual and also showed consistency as a group. This indicated a common framework of reasoning among the group. The feedback of the group showed, however, the respondents found it difficult to make general comparisons without having a context. This indicates decision-making in practice is more likely to be steered by other mechanisms than purely combining information sources.

Intuition, subjectivity, and Le bricoleur: cancer patients' accounts of negotiating a plurality of therapeutic options.

PubMed

Broom, Alex

2009-08-01

Cancer patients are now combining complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) with biomedical cancer treatments, reflecting an increasingly pluralistic health care environment. However, there has been little research done on the ways in which cancer patients juggle multiplicity in claims to expertise, models of disease, and therapeutic practice. Drawing on the accounts of cancer patients who use CAM, in this article I develop a conceptualization of therapeutic decision making, utilizing the notion of bricolage as a key point of departure. The patient accounts illustrate the "piecing together" (or bricolage) of therapeutic trajectories, drawing on intuitive, embodied knowledge, as well as formalized "objective" scientific expertise. Le bricoleur, as characterized here, actively mediates, rather than accepts or rejects CAM or biomedicine, and utilizes a combination of scientific expertise, embodied physicality, and social knowledge to make decisions and assess therapeutic effectiveness. Although these "border crossings" are potentially subversive of established biomedical expertise, the analysis also illustrates the structural constraints (and penalties) associated with bricolage, and furthermore, the interplay of a repositioning of responsibility with neoliberal forms of self-governance.

An Exploration of Dual Systems via Time Pressure Manipulation in Decision-making Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lisa

Every day, decisions need to be made where time is a limiting factor. Regardless of situation, time constraints often place a premium on rapid decision-making. Researchers have been interested in studying this human behavior and understanding its underlying cognitive processes. In previous studies, scientists have believed that the cognitive processes underlying decision-making behavior were consistent with dual-process modes of thinking. Critics of dual-process theory question the vagueness of its definition, and claim that single-process accounts can explain the data just as well. My aim is to elucidate the cognitive processes that underlie decisions which involve some level of risk through the experimental manipulation of time pressure. Using this method, I hope to distinguish between competing hypotheses related to the origin of the effect. I will explore three types of decisions that illustrate these concepts: risky decision-making involving gambles, intertemporal choice, and one-shot public goods games involving social cooperation. In our experiments, participants made decisions about gambles framed as either gains or losses; decided upon intertemporal choices for smaller but sooner rewards or larger but later rewards; and played a one-shot public goods game involving social cooperation and contributing an amount of money to a group. In each case, we experimentally manipulated time pressure, either within subjects or among individuals. Results showed under time pressure, increased framing effects under in both hypothetical and incentivized choices; and greater contributions and cooperation among individuals, lending support to the dual process hypothesis that these effects arise from a fast, intuitive system. However, our intertemporal choice experiment showed that time constraints led to increased selection of the larger but later options, which suggests that the magnitude of the reward may play larger role in choice selection under cognitive load than previously studied. This diverges from the current dual-process interpretation that myopic choices under time pressure favor smaller but sooner rewards, and suggests that more studies are needed in this realm to disentangle the intuitive from the deliberative system through the manipulation of cognitive load.

Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

PubMed

Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

2014-10-01

Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of introspection on judgment and decision making is dependent on the quality of conscious thinking.

PubMed

Leisti, Tuomas; Häkkinen, Jukka

2016-05-01

That introspection may impair certain judgments and result in fabrication has been attributed to a distracting shift from more adaptive intuitive processing to more analytic and conscious processing. This phenomenon was studied in an experiment where participants made multidimensional visual choices. It was found that the effect of this shift on decision-making performance was dependent on the quality of the explanations during introspection, while the performance in silent conditions was not. Therefore, it appears that the effect of introspection on judgments is not only influenced by the thinking mode per se, but also by the individual's ability to approach the decision problem analytically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

PubMed

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

PubMed

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Dissociated Neural Processing for Decisions in Managers and Non-Managers

PubMed Central

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G.; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing. PMID:22927984

I want to media multitask and I want to do it now: Individual differences in media multitasking predict delay of gratification and system-1 thinking.

PubMed

Schutten, Dan; Stokes, Kirk A; Arnell, Karen M

2017-01-01

Media multitasking, the concurrent use of multiple media forms, has been shown to be related to greater self-reported impulsivity and less self-control. These measures are both hallmarks of the need for immediate gratification which has been associated with fast, intuitive 'system-1' decision making, as opposed to more deliberate and effortful 'system-2' decision making. In Study 1, we used the Cognitive Reflection Task (CRT) to examine whether individuals who engage heavily in media multitasking differ from those who are light media multitaskers in their degree of system-1 versus system-2 thinking. In Study 2 we examined whether heavy and light media multitaskers differ in delay of gratification, using the delay discounting measure which estimates the preference for smaller immediate rewards, relative to larger delayed rewards in a hypothetical monetary choice task. We found that heavy media multitaskers were more likely than light media multitaskers to endorse intuitive, but wrong, decisions on the CRT indicating a greater reliance on 'system-1' thinking. Heavy media multitaskers were also willing to settle for less money immediately relative to light media multitaskers who were more willing to wait for the larger delayed reward. These results suggest that heavy media multitaskers have a reactive decision-making style that promotes current desires (money, ease of processing) at the expense of accuracy and future rewards. These findings highlight the potential for heavy media multitaskers to be at risk for problematic behaviors associated with delay discounting - behaviors such as substance abuse, overeating, problematic gambling, and poor financial management.

The relation between bystanders’ behavioral reactivity to distress and later helping behavior during a violent conflict in virtual reality

PubMed Central

Neyret, Solène; Slater, Mel; de Gelder, Beatrice

2018-01-01

The occurrence of helping behavior is thought to be automatically triggered by reflexive reactions and promoted by intuitive decisions. Here, we studied whether reflexive reactions to an emergency situation are associated with later helping behavior in a different situation, a violent conflict. First, 29 male supporters of F.C. Barcelona performed a cued-reaction time task with a low and high cognitive load manipulation, to tap into reflexive and reflective processes respectively, during the observation of an emergency. Next, participants entered a bar in Virtual Reality and had a conversation with a virtual fellow supporter. During this conversation, a virtual Real Madrid supporter entered and started an aggressive argument with the fellow supporter that escalated into a physical fight. Verbal and physical interventions of the participant served as measures of helping behavior. Results showed that faster responses to an emergency situation during low, but not during high cognitive load, were associated with more interventions during the violent conflict. However, a tendency to describe the decision to act during the violent conflict as intuitive and reflex-like was related to more interventions. Further analyses revealed that a disposition to experience sympathy, other-oriented feelings during distressful situations, was related to self-reported intuitive decision-making, a reduced distance to the perpetrator, and higher in the intervening participants. Taken together, these results shed new light on helping behavior and are consistent with the notion of a motivational system in which the act of helping is dependent on a complex interplay between intuitive, reflexive and deliberate, reflective processes. PMID:29672638

The relation between bystanders' behavioral reactivity to distress and later helping behavior during a violent conflict in virtual reality.

PubMed

Hortensius, Ruud; Neyret, Solène; Slater, Mel; de Gelder, Beatrice

2018-01-01

The occurrence of helping behavior is thought to be automatically triggered by reflexive reactions and promoted by intuitive decisions. Here, we studied whether reflexive reactions to an emergency situation are associated with later helping behavior in a different situation, a violent conflict. First, 29 male supporters of F.C. Barcelona performed a cued-reaction time task with a low and high cognitive load manipulation, to tap into reflexive and reflective processes respectively, during the observation of an emergency. Next, participants entered a bar in Virtual Reality and had a conversation with a virtual fellow supporter. During this conversation, a virtual Real Madrid supporter entered and started an aggressive argument with the fellow supporter that escalated into a physical fight. Verbal and physical interventions of the participant served as measures of helping behavior. Results showed that faster responses to an emergency situation during low, but not during high cognitive load, were associated with more interventions during the violent conflict. However, a tendency to describe the decision to act during the violent conflict as intuitive and reflex-like was related to more interventions. Further analyses revealed that a disposition to experience sympathy, other-oriented feelings during distressful situations, was related to self-reported intuitive decision-making, a reduced distance to the perpetrator, and higher in the intervening participants. Taken together, these results shed new light on helping behavior and are consistent with the notion of a motivational system in which the act of helping is dependent on a complex interplay between intuitive, reflexive and deliberate, reflective processes.

Clinical Intuition in Family Medicine: More Than First Impressions

PubMed Central

Woolley, Amanda; Kostopoulou, Olga

2013-01-01

PURPOSE The clinical literature advises physicians not to trust their intuition. Studies of clinical intuition, however, equate it to early impressions, the first thing that comes to the physician’s mind. This study aimed to investigate the validity of this perspective by examining real cases of intuition in family medicine. METHODS Eighteen family physicians were interviewed about patient cases in which they believed that they had experienced an intuition. Cases were included if (1) participants were unaware of the basis of their judgment, or (2) participants talked about the basis of their judgment but believed that it was irrational or unsubstantiated. During the interview, case descriptions were systematically probed following the Critical Decision Method. Transcripts were coded for judgments, informational cues, expectancies, goals, and actions and were reordered into chronological accounts of the decision process. The 2 authors independently categorized cases into 3 emerging decision process types. RESULTS Participants reported 31 cases, 24 of which met inclusion criteria. Three types of decision process emerged: gut feelings, recognitions, and insights (κ = 0.78). In all cases, participants thought that their intuitive judgment was in conflict with a more rational explanation or what other colleagues would do. CONCLUSIONS Automatic, nonanalytical processes in clinical judgment extend beyond first impressions. Rather than admonishing clinicians not to trust their intuition, it should be acknowledged that little is currently known about the different types of intuitive processes and what determines their success or failure. Research on the conditions for accurate clinical intuitions is needed. PMID:23319507

Clinical intuition in family medicine: more than first impressions.

PubMed

Woolley, Amanda; Kostopoulou, Olga

2013-01-01

The clinical literature advises physicians not to trust their intuition. Studies of clinical intuition, however, equate it to early impressions, the first thing that comes to the physician's mind. This study aimed to investigate the validity of this perspective by examining real cases of intuition in family medicine. Eighteen family physicians were interviewed about patient cases in which they believed that they had experienced an intuition. Cases were included if (1) participants were unaware of the basis of their judgment, or (2) participants talked about the basis of their judgment but believed that it was irrational or unsubstantiated. During the interview, case descriptions were systematically probed following the Critical Decision Method. Transcripts were coded for judgments, informational cues, expectancies, goals, and actions and were reordered into chronological accounts of the decision process. The 2 authors independently categorized cases into 3 emerging decision process types. Participants reported 31 cases, 24 of which met inclusion criteria. Three types of decision process emerged: gut feelings, recognitions, and insights (κ = 0.78). In all cases, participants thought that their intuitive judgment was in conflict with a more rational explanation or what other colleagues would do. Automatic, nonanalytical processes in clinical judgment extend beyond first impressions. Rather than admonishing clinicians not to trust their intuition, it should be acknowledged that little is currently known about the different types of intuitive processes and what determines their success or failure. Research on the conditions for accurate clinical intuitions is needed.

Factors influencing the clinical decision-making of midwives: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Daemers, Darie O A; van Limbeek, Evelien B M; Wijnen, Hennie A A; Nieuwenhuijze, Marianne J; de Vries, Raymond G

2017-10-06

Although midwives make clinical decisions that have an impact on the health and well-being of mothers and babies, little is known about how they make those decisions. Wide variation in intrapartum decisions to refer women to obstetrician-led care suggests that midwives' decisions are based on more than the evidence based medicine (EBM) model - i.e. clinical evidence, midwife's expertise, and woman's values - alone. With this study we aimed to explore the factors that influence clinical decision-making of midwives who work independently. We used a qualitative approach, conducting in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 11 Dutch primary care midwives. Data collection took place between May and September 2015. The interviews were semi-structured, using written vignettes to solicit midwives' clinical decision-making processes (Think Aloud method). We performed thematic analysis on the transcripts. We identified five themes that influenced clinical decision-making: the pregnant woman as a whole person, sources of knowledge, the midwife as a whole person, the collaboration between maternity care professionals, and the organisation of care. Regarding the midwife, her decisions were shaped not only by her experience, intuition, and personal circumstances, but also by her attitudes about physiology, woman-centredness, shared decision-making, and collaboration with other professionals. The nature of the local collaboration between maternity care professionals and locally-developed protocols dominated midwives' clinical decision-making. When midwives and obstetricians had different philosophies of care and different practice styles, their collaborative efforts were challenged. Midwives' clinical decision-making is a more varied and complex process than the EBM framework suggests. If midwives are to succeed in their role as promoters and protectors of physiological pregnancy and birth, they need to understand how clinical decisions in a multidisciplinary context are actually made.

Integrating the Interagency in the Armed Forces of the Philippines Approach to Counterinsurgency

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-23

Figure 5 (McCormick’s Diamond Basilan Model ) ................................. 25 v Preface The resurgence of the Abu Sayyaf Group in Basilan, the...address~d by the AFP are the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army (CPP/NPA), the _ seces~ionist Moro Islamic Uberation Front (MU,F...discussion, holistic thinking, 8 model making, intuitive decision-making, continuous assessment thru feedback, structured learning thru adaptation

Capturing a Commander's decision making style

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer

2017-05-01

A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.

Whole mind and shared mind in clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Epstein, Ronald Mark

2013-02-01

To review the theory, research evidence and ethical implications regarding "whole mind" and "shared mind" in clinical practice in the context of chronic and serious illnesses. Selective critical review of the intersection of classical and naturalistic decision-making theories, cognitive neuroscience, communication research and ethics as they apply to decision-making and autonomy. Decision-making involves analytic thinking as well as affect and intuition ("whole mind") and sharing cognitive and affective schemas of two or more individuals ("shared mind"). Social relationships can help processing of complex information that otherwise would overwhelm individuals' cognitive capacities. Medical decision-making research, teaching and practice should consider both analytic and non-analytic cognitive processes. Further, research should consider that decisions emerge not only from the individual perspectives of patients, their families and clinicians, but also the perspectives that emerge from the interactions among them. Social interactions have the potential to enhance individual autonomy, as well as to promote relational autonomy based on shared frames of reference. Shared mind has the potential to result in wiser decisions, greater autonomy and self-determination; yet, clinicians and patients should be vigilant for the potential of hierarchical relationships to foster coercion or silencing of the patient's voice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

PubMed

Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

2007-11-01

According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

Allocating health care resources: a questionnaire experiment on the predictive success of rules.

PubMed

Ahlert, Marlies; Schwettmann, Lars

2017-06-26

The topic of this paper is related to equity in health within a country. In public health care sectors of many countries decisions on priority setting with respect to treatment of different types of diseases or patient groups are implicitly or explicitly made. Priorities are realized by allocation decisions for medical resources where moral judgments play an important role with respect to goals and measures that should be applied. The aim of this study is to explore the moral intuitions held in the German society related to priorities in medical treatment. We use an experimental questionnaire method established in the Empirical Social Choice literature. Participants are asked to make decisions in a sequence of distributive problems where a limited amount of treatment time has to be allocated to hypothetically described patients. The decision problems serve as an intuition pump. Situations are systematically varied with respect to patients' initial health levels, their ability to benefit from treatment time, and the amount of treatment time available. Subjects are also asked to describe their deliberations. We focus on the acceptance of different allocation principles including equity concepts and utilitarian properties. We investigate rule characteristics like order preservation or monotonicity with respect to resources, severity, or effectiveness. We check the consistency of individual choices with stated reasoning. The goals and allocation principles revealed show that the moral intuitions held by our experimental subjects are much more complex than the principles commonly applied in health economic theory. Especially, cost-utility principles are rarely applied, whereas the goal of equality of health gain is observed more often. The principle not to leave any patient untreated is very dominant. We also observe the degrees to which extent certain monotonicity principles, known from welfare economics, are followed. Subjects were able to describe their moral judgments in written statements. We also find evidence that they followed their respective intuitions very consistently in their decisions. Findings of the kind presented in this paper may serve as an important input for the public and political discussion when decisions on priorities in the public health care sector are formed.

Principled Moral Sentiment and the Flexibility of Moral Judgment and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartels, Daniel M.

2008-01-01

Three studies test eight hypotheses about (1) how judgment differs between people who ascribe greater vs. less moral relevance to choices, (2) how moral judgment is subject to task constraints that shift evaluative focus (to moral rules vs. to consequences), and (3) how differences in the propensity to rely on intuitive reactions affect judgment.…

Cold or Calculating? Reduced Activity in the Subgenual Cingulate Cortex Reflects Decreased Emotional Aversion to Harming in Counterintuitive Utilitarian Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiech, Katja; Kahane, Guy; Shackel, Nicholas; Farias, Miguel; Savulescu, Julian; Tracey, Irene

2013-01-01

Recent research on moral decision-making has suggested that many common moral judgments are based on immediate intuitions. However, some individuals arrive at highly counterintuitive utilitarian conclusions about when it is permissible to harm other individuals. Such utilitarian judgments have been attributed to effortful reasoning that has…

Feeling of Certainty: Uncovering a Missing Link between Knowledge and Acceptance of Evolution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ha, Minsu; Haury, David L.; Nehm, Ross H.

2012-01-01

We propose a new model of the factors influencing acceptance of evolutionary theory that highlights a novel variable unexplored in previous studies: the feeling of certainty (FOC). The model is grounded in an emerging understanding of brain function that acknowledges the contributions of intuitive cognitions in making decisions, such as whether or…

Dual-Process Theories of Reasoning: Contemporary Issues and Developmental Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.

2011-01-01

In this paper, I discuss the current state of theorising about dual processes in adult performance on reasoning and decision making tasks, in which Type 1 intuitive processing is distinguished from Type 2 reflective thinking. I show that there are many types of theory some of which distinguish modes rather than types of thinking and that…

Manpower Information for Urban Poverty Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Louis; Norton, John Herbert

A lack of data continues to hinder efforts to cure the problems of poverty areas. This project was designed to determine possible means to gather the needed data, so that program planners could make decisions based on facts rather than intuition. Although this is a case study of an inner-city poverty area of Philadelphia, the need for data and the…

Patterns of informal reasoning in the context of socioscientific decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, Troy D.; Zeidler, Dana L.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study is to contribute to a theoretical knowledge base through research by examining factors salient to science education reform and practice in the context of socioscientific issues. The study explores how individuals negotiate and resolve genetic engineering dilemmas. A qualitative approach was used to examine patterns of informal reasoning and the role of morality in these processes. Thirty college students participated individually in two semistructured interviews designed to explore their informal reasoning in response to six genetic engineering scenarios. Students demonstrated evidence of rationalistic, emotive, and intuitive forms of informal reasoning. Rationalistic informal reasoning described reason-based considerations; emotive informal reasoning described care-based considerations; and intuitive reasoning described considerations based on immediate reactions to the context of a scenario. Participants frequently relied on combinations of these reasoning patterns as they worked to resolve individual socioscientific scenarios. Most of the participants appreciated at least some of the moral implications of their decisions, and these considerations were typically interwoven within an overall pattern of informal reasoning. These results highlight the need to ensure that science classrooms are environments in which intuition and emotion in addition to reason are valued. Implications and recommendations for future research are discussed.

Opposing Oxytocin Effects on Intergroup Cooperative Behavior in Intuitive and Reflective Minds.

PubMed

Ma, Yina; Liu, Yi; Rand, David G; Heatherton, Todd F; Han, Shihui

2015-09-01

People often favor ingroup over outgroup members when choosing to cooperate. Such ingroup-favored cooperation is promoted by oxytocin-a neuropeptide shown to facilitate social cognition and that has emerged as a pharmacological target for treatments of social functioning deficits. The current study applied a dual-process model to investigate whether and how intuitive and reflective cognitive styles affect the oxytocin-motivated ingroup favoritism in cooperation. We examined oxytocin effects on ingroup favoritism in a double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subjects design where cognitive processing (intuition vs reflection) was experimentally manipulated in healthy Chinese males (n=150). We also supplemented this experimental manipulation with an individual difference analysis by assessing participants' inclination toward intuition or reflection in daily life. Intranasal administration of oxytocin (vs placebo) increased ingroup favoritism among participants primed to be intuitive or those who preferred intuition in daily life. In contrast, oxytocin decreased ingroup favoritism in participants primed to rely on reflective thinking or those who preferred reflective decision-making in daily life. Our results demonstrate that oxytocin has distinct functional roles when different cognitive styles (ie, intuition vs reflection) are promoted during social cooperation in a group situation. Our findings have implications for oxytocin pharmacotherapy of social dysfunction in that whether the effects of oxytocin on social functioning are facilitative, debilitative, or null, depends on an individual's cognitive style.

Opposing Oxytocin Effects on Intergroup Cooperative Behavior in Intuitive and Reflective Minds

PubMed Central

Ma, Yina; Liu, Yi; Rand, David G; Heatherton, Todd F; Han, Shihui

2015-01-01

People often favor ingroup over outgroup members when choosing to cooperate. Such ingroup-favored cooperation is promoted by oxytocin—a neuropeptide shown to facilitate social cognition and that has emerged as a pharmacological target for treatments of social functioning deficits. The current study applied a dual-process model to investigate whether and how intuitive and reflective cognitive styles affect the oxytocin-motivated ingroup favoritism in cooperation. We examined oxytocin effects on ingroup favoritism in a double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subjects design where cognitive processing (intuition vs reflection) was experimentally manipulated in healthy Chinese males (n=150). We also supplemented this experimental manipulation with an individual difference analysis by assessing participants' inclination toward intuition or reflection in daily life. Intranasal administration of oxytocin (vs placebo) increased ingroup favoritism among participants primed to be intuitive or those who preferred intuition in daily life. In contrast, oxytocin decreased ingroup favoritism in participants primed to rely on reflective thinking or those who preferred reflective decision-making in daily life. Our results demonstrate that oxytocin has distinct functional roles when different cognitive styles (ie, intuition vs reflection) are promoted during social cooperation in a group situation. Our findings have implications for oxytocin pharmacotherapy of social dysfunction in that whether the effects of oxytocin on social functioning are facilitative, debilitative, or null, depends on an individual's cognitive style. PMID:25807529

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Artificial intelligence: the clinician of the future.

PubMed

Gallagher, S M

2001-09-01

Human beings have long been fascinated with the idea of artificial intelligence. This fascination is fueled by popular films such as Stanley Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey and Stephen Spielberg's recent film, AI. However intriguing artificial intelligence may be, Hubert and Spencer Dreyfus contend that qualities exist that are uniquely human--the qualities thought to be inaccessible to the computer "mind." Patricia Benner further investigated the qualities that guide clinicians in making decisions and assessments that are not entirely evidence-based or grounded in scientific data. Perhaps it is the intuitive nature of the human being that separates us from the machine. The state of artificial intelligence is described herein, along with a discussion of computerized clinical decision-making and the role of the human being in these decisions.

Context is everything or how could I have been that stupid?

PubMed

Croskerry, Pat

2009-01-01

Dual Process Theory provides a useful working model of decision-making. It broadly divides decision-making into intuitive (System 1) and analytical (System 2) processes. System 1 is especially dependent on contextual cues. There appears to be a universal human tendency to contextualize information, mostly in an effort to imbue meaning but also, perhaps, to conserve cognitive energy. Most decision errors occur in System 1, and this has two major implications. The first is that insufficient account may have been taken out of context when the original decision was made. Secondly, in trying to learn from decision failures, we need the highest fidelity of context reconstruction as possible. It should be appreciated that learning from past events is inevitably an imperfect process. Retrospective investigations, such as root-cause analysis, critical incident review, morbidity and mortality rounds and legal investigations, all suffer the limitation that they cannot faithfully reconstruct the context in which decisions were made and from which actions followed.

Rational and Experiential Decision-Making Preferences of Third-Year Student Pharmacists

PubMed Central

McLaughlin, Jacqueline E.; Cox, Wendy C.; Williams, Charlene R.

2014-01-01

Objective. To examine the rational (systematic and rule-based) and experiential (fast and intuitive) decision-making preferences of student pharmacists, and to compare these preferences to the preferences of other health professionals and student populations. Methods. The Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI-40), a validated psychometric tool, was administered electronically to 114 third-year (P3) student pharmacists. Student demographics and preadmission data were collected. The REI-40 results were compared with student demographics and admissions data to identify possible correlations between these factors. Results. Mean REI-40 rational scores were higher than experiential scores. Rational scores for younger students were significantly higher than students aged 30 years and older (p<0.05). No significant differences were found based on gender, race, or the presence of a prior degree. All correlations between REI-40 scores and incoming grade point average (GPA) and Pharmacy College Admission Test (PCAT) scores were weak. Conclusion. Student pharmacists favored rational decision making over experiential decision making, which was similar to results of studies done of other health professions. PMID:25147392

Liking goes with liking: An intuitive congruence between preference and prominence.

PubMed

Morvinski, Coby; Amir, On

2018-03-26

In a series of 8 experiments, we demonstrate the existence of a "labeling effect" wherein people intuitively relate preferred choices to prominently labeled cues (such as heads as opposed to tails in a coin toss) and vice versa. Importantly, the observed congruence is asymmetric-it does not manifest for nonprominent cues and nonpreferred choices. This is because the congruence is driven by a process of evaluative matching: prominent cues are liked, but nonprominent cues are neutral or at most slightly negative in contrast. When we test prominent, yet truly negatively labeled cues, we indeed find a matching with less liked products. We discuss the theoretical contributions to the study of preferences and decision making, as well as demonstrate the practical implications to researchers and practitioners by using this process to assess intuitive preferences and reduce the compromise effect. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Developmental reversals in risky decision making: intelligence agents show larger decision biases than college students.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F; Chick, Christina F; Corbin, Jonathan C; Hsia, Andrew N

2014-01-01

Intelligence agents make risky decisions routinely, with serious consequences for national security. Although common sense and most theories imply that experienced intelligence professionals should be less prone to irrational inconsistencies than college students, we show the opposite. Moreover, the growth of experience-based intuition predicts this developmental reversal. We presented intelligence agents, college students, and postcollege adults with 30 risky-choice problems in gain and loss frames and then compared the three groups' decisions. The agents not only exhibited larger framing biases than the students, but also were more confident in their decisions. The postcollege adults (who were selected to be similar to the students) occupied an interesting middle ground, being generally as biased as the students (sometimes more biased) but less biased than the agents. An experimental manipulation testing an explanation for these effects, derived from fuzzy-trace theory, made the students look as biased as the agents. These results show that, although framing biases are irrational (because equivalent outcomes are treated differently), they are the ironical output of cognitively advanced mechanisms of meaning making.

A review of the literature: midwifery decision-making and birth.

PubMed

Jefford, Elaine; Fahy, Kathleen; Sundin, Deborah

2010-12-01

Clinical decision-making was initially studied in medicine where hypothetico-deductive reasoning is the model for decision-making. The nursing perspective on clinical decision-making has largely been shaped by Patricia Benner's ground breaking work. Benner claimed expert nurses use humanistic-intuitive ways of making clinical decisions rather than the 'rational reasoning' as claimed by medicine. Clinical decision-making in midwifery is not the same as either nursing or medical decision-making because of the woman-midwife partnership where the woman is the ultimate decision-maker. CINHAL, Medline and Cochrane databases were systematically searched using key words derived from the guiding question. A review of the decision-making research literature in midwifery was undertaken where studies were published in English. The selection criteria for papers were: only research papers of direct relevance to the guiding research question were included in the review. Decision-making is under-researched in midwifery and more specifically birth, as only 4 research articles met the inclusion criteria in this review. Three of the studies involved qualified midwives, and one involved student midwives. Two studies were undertaken in England, one in Scotland and one in Sweden. The major findings synthesised from this review, are that; (1) midwifery decision-making during birth is socially negotiated involving hierarchies of surveillance and control; (2) the role of the woman in shared decision-making during birth has not been explored by midwifery research; (3) clinical decision-making encompasses clinical reasoning as essential but not sufficient for midwives to actually implement their preferred decision. We argue that existing research does not inform the discipline of the complexity of midwifery clinical decision-making during birth. A well-designed study would involve investigating the clinical reasoning skills of the midwife, her relationship with the woman, the context of the particular birthing unit and the employment status of the midwife. The role of the woman as decision-maker in her own care during birth also needs careful research attention. Copyright © 2010 Australian College of Midwives. All rights reserved.

Moral Rationality and Intuition: An Exploration of Relationships between the Defining Issues Test and the Moral Foundations Questionnaire

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glover, Rebecca J.; Natesan, Prathiba; Wang, Jie; Rohr, Danielle; McAfee-Etheridge, Lauri; Booker, Dana D.; Bishop, James; Lee, David; Kildare, Cory; Wu, Minwei

2014-01-01

Explorations of relationships between Haidt's Moral Foundations Questionnaire (MFQ) and indices of moral decision-making assessed by the Defining Issues Test have been limited to correlational analyses. This study used Harm, Fairness, Ingroup, Authority and Purity to predict overall moral judgment and individual Defining Issues Test-2 (DIT-2)…

Clinical decision making: how surgeons do it.

PubMed

Crebbin, Wendy; Beasley, Spencer W; Watters, David A K

2013-06-01

Clinical decision making is a core competency of surgical practice. It involves two distinct types of mental process best considered as the ends of a continuum, ranging from intuitive and subconscious to analytical and conscious. In practice, individual decisions are usually reached by a combination of each, according to the complexity of the situation and the experience/expertise of the surgeon. An expert moves effortlessly along this continuum, according to need, able to apply learned rules or algorithms to specific presentations, choosing these as a result of either pattern recognition or analytical thinking. The expert recognizes and responds quickly to any mismatch between what is observed and what was expected, coping with gaps in information and making decisions even where critical data may be uncertain or unknown. Even for experts, the cognitive processes involved are difficult to articulate as they tend to be very complex. However, if surgeons are to assist trainees in developing their decision-making skills, the processes need to be identified and defined, and the competency needs to be measurable. This paper examines the processes of clinical decision making in three contexts: making a decision about how to manage a patient; preparing for an operative procedure; and reviewing progress during an operative procedure. The models represented here are an exploration of the complexity of the processes, designed to assist surgeons understand how expert clinical decision making occurs and to highlight the challenge of teaching these skills to surgical trainees. © 2013 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Self-reported strategies in decisions under risk: role of feedback, reasoning abilities, executive functions, short-term-memory, and working memory.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2015-11-01

In decisions under objective risk conditions information about the decision options' possible outcomes and the rules for outcomes' occurrence are provided. Thus, deciders can base decision-making strategies on probabilistic laws. In many laboratory decision-making tasks, choosing the option with the highest winning probability in all trials (=maximization strategy) is probabilistically regarded the most rational behavior. However, individuals often behave less optimal, especially in case the individuals have lower cognitive functions or in case no feedback about consequences is provided in the situation. It is still unclear which cognitive functions particularly predispose individuals for using successful strategies and which strategies profit from feedback. We investigated 195 individuals with two decision-making paradigms, the Game of Dice Task (GDT) (with and without feedback), and the Card Guessing Game. Thereafter, participants reported which strategies they had applied. Interaction effects (feedback × strategy), effect sizes, and uncorrected single group comparisons suggest that feedback in the GDT tended to be more beneficial to individuals reporting exploratory strategies (e.g., use intuition). In both tasks, the self-reported use of more principled and more rational strategies was accompanied by better decision-making performance and better performances in reasoning and executive functioning tasks. The strategy groups did not significantly differ in most short-term and working-memory tasks. Thus, particularly individual differences in reasoning and executive functions seem to predispose individuals toward particular decision-making strategies. Feedback seems to be useful for individuals who rather explore the decision-making situation instead of following a certain plan.

Systems 1 and 2 thinking processes and cognitive reflection testing in medical students

PubMed Central

Tay, Shu Wen; Ryan, Paul; Ryan, C Anthony

2016-01-01

Background Diagnostic decision-making is made through a combination of Systems 1 (intuition or pattern-recognition) and Systems 2 (analytic) thinking. The purpose of this study was to use the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to evaluate and compare the level of Systems 1 and 2 thinking among medical students in pre-clinical and clinical programs. Methods The CRT is a three-question test designed to measure the ability of respondents to activate metacognitive processes and switch to System 2 (analytic) thinking where System 1 (intuitive) thinking would lead them astray. Each CRT question has a correct analytical (System 2) answer and an incorrect intuitive (System 1) answer. A group of medical students in Years 2 & 3 (pre-clinical) and Years 4 (in clinical practice) of a 5-year medical degree were studied. Results Ten percent (13/128) of students had the intuitive answers to the three questions (suggesting they generally relied on System 1 thinking) while almost half (44%) answered all three correctly (indicating full analytical, System 2 thinking). Only 3–13% had incorrect answers (i.e. that were neither the analytical nor the intuitive responses). Non-native English speaking students (n = 11) had a lower mean number of correct answers compared to native English speakers (n = 117: 1.0 s 2.12 respectfully: p < 0.01). As students progressed through questions 1 to 3, the percentage of correct System 2 answers increased and the percentage of intuitive answers decreased in both the pre-clinical and clinical students. Conclusions Up to half of the medical students demonstrated full or partial reliance on System 1 (intuitive) thinking in response to these analytical questions. While their CRT performance has no claims to make as to their future expertise as clinicians, the test may be used in helping students to understand the importance of awareness and regulation of their thinking processes in clinical practice. PMID:28344696

Systems 1 and 2 thinking processes and cognitive reflection testing in medical students.

PubMed

Tay, Shu Wen; Ryan, Paul; Ryan, C Anthony

2016-10-01

Diagnostic decision-making is made through a combination of Systems 1 (intuition or pattern-recognition) and Systems 2 (analytic) thinking. The purpose of this study was to use the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to evaluate and compare the level of Systems 1 and 2 thinking among medical students in pre-clinical and clinical programs. The CRT is a three-question test designed to measure the ability of respondents to activate metacognitive processes and switch to System 2 (analytic) thinking where System 1 (intuitive) thinking would lead them astray. Each CRT question has a correct analytical (System 2) answer and an incorrect intuitive (System 1) answer. A group of medical students in Years 2 & 3 (pre-clinical) and Years 4 (in clinical practice) of a 5-year medical degree were studied. Ten percent (13/128) of students had the intuitive answers to the three questions (suggesting they generally relied on System 1 thinking) while almost half (44%) answered all three correctly (indicating full analytical, System 2 thinking). Only 3-13% had incorrect answers (i.e. that were neither the analytical nor the intuitive responses). Non-native English speaking students (n = 11) had a lower mean number of correct answers compared to native English speakers (n = 117: 1.0 s 2.12 respectfully: p < 0.01). As students progressed through questions 1 to 3, the percentage of correct System 2 answers increased and the percentage of intuitive answers decreased in both the pre-clinical and clinical students. Up to half of the medical students demonstrated full or partial reliance on System 1 (intuitive) thinking in response to these analytical questions. While their CRT performance has no claims to make as to their future expertise as clinicians, the test may be used in helping students to understand the importance of awareness and regulation of their thinking processes in clinical practice.

Can the uncertainty appraisal associated with emotion cancel the effect of the hunch period in the Iowa Gambling Task?

PubMed

Bollon, Thierry; Bagneux, Virginie

2013-01-01

Research has given little attention to the influence of incidental emotions on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which processing of the emotional cues associated with each decision is necessary to make advantageous decisions. Drawing on cognitive theories of emotions, we tested whether uncertainty-associated emotion can cancel the positive effect of the hunch period, by preventing participants from developing a tendency towards advantageous decisions. Our explanation is that uncertainty appraisals initiate deliberative processing that is irrelevant to process emotional cues, contrary to intuitive processing (Kahneman, 2003; Tiedens & Linton, 2001). As expected, uncertainty-associated emotion cancelled the positive effect of the hunch period in the IGT compared to certainty-associated emotion: disgusted participants (certainty-associated emotion) and sad participants induced to feel certainty developed a stronger tendency towards advantageous decisions than sad participants induced to feel uncertainty. We discuss the importance of the core components that trigger incidental emotions to predict decision making.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Life and Death Decision Making, by Baruch A. Brody.

PubMed

Veatch, Robert M

1989-04-01

Veatch considers the pluralistic casuistry theory advocated by Baruch Brody in his 1988 book, Life and Death Decision Making, to be an important contribution to the secular medical ethics literature. The casuistic and pluralistic elements of Brody's new model are described as intriguing but controversial because Brody both excludes several ethical appeals (i.e., classical Hippocratic ethics, virtue theory) and/or limits other questionable appeals (i.e., consequences for families and others in society, the virtue of integrity) without accounting for these decisions. Veatch also questions Brody's use of intuitional judgment to determine what ought to be done after examination of various appeals and their significance because Brody's approach raises serious problems about how various appeals are counted. Veatch does affirm the rich assessment of medical ethical problems made possible by Brody's pluralistic approach but notes the difficulties it raises.

Evidence-based medicine in primary care: qualitative study of family physicians.

PubMed

Tracy, C Shawn; Dantas, Guilherme Coelho; Upshur, Ross E G

2003-05-09

The objectives of this study were: a) to examine physician attitudes to and experience of the practice of evidence-based medicine (EBM) in primary care; b) to investigate the influence of patient preferences on clinical decision-making; and c) to explore the role of intuition in family practice. Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews of 15 family physicians purposively selected from respondents to a national survey on EBM mailed to a random sample of Canadian family physicians. Participants mainly welcomed the promotion of EBM in the primary care setting. A significant number of barriers and limitations to the implementation of EBM were identified. EBM is perceived by some physicians as a devaluation of the 'art of medicine' and a threat to their professional/clinical autonomy. Issues regarding the trustworthiness and credibility of evidence were of great concern, especially with respect to the influence of the pharmaceutical industry. Attempts to become more evidence-based often result in the experience of conflicts. Patient factors exert a powerful influence on clinical decision-making and can serve as trumps to research evidence. A widespread belief that intuition plays a vital role in primary care reinforced views that research evidence must be considered alongside other factors such as patient preferences and the clinical judgement and experience of the physician. Primary care physicians are increasingly keen to consider research evidence in clinical decision-making, but there are significant concerns about the current model of EBM. Our findings support the proposed revisions to EBM wherein greater emphasis is placed on clinical expertise and patient preferences, both of which remain powerful influences on physician behaviour.

Linking Effective Project Management to Business Strategy in Oil and Gas Industry through Decision-making Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeleke, Adeyinka

The construction project in the oil and gas industry covers the entire spectrum of hydrocarbon production from the wellhead (upstream) to downstream facilities. In each of these establishments, the activities in a construction project include: consulting, studies, front-end engineering, detail engineering, procurement, program management, construction, installation, commissioning and start-up. Efficient management of each of the activities involved in construction projects is one of the driving forces for the successful completion of the project. Optimizing the crucial factors in project management during each phase of a project in an oil and gas industry can assist managers to maximize the use of available resources and drive the project to successful conclusions. One of these factors is the decision-making process in the construction project. Current research effort investigated the relationship between decision-making processes and business strategy in oil and gas industry using employee surveys. I recruited employees of different races, age group, genders, and years of experience in order understand their influence on the implementation of the decision-making process in oil and gas industry through a quantitative survey. Decision-making was assessed using five decision measures: (a) rational, (b) intuitive, (c) dependent, (d) avoidant, and (e) spontaneous. The findings indicated gender, age, years of work experience and job titles as primary variables with a negative relationship with decision-making approach for employees working in a major oil and gas industry. The study results revealed that the two most likely decision-making methods in oil and gas industry include: making a decision in a logical and systematic way and seek assistance from others when making a decision. Additionally, the two leading management approaches to decision-making in the oil and gas industry include: decision analysis is part of organization culture and management is committed to the decision-making process. Some recommendations for future studies were presented based on the need to intensify the importance of the current study and enlarge the body of knowledge regarding decision-making process in oil and gas industry.

Evaluating team decision-making as an emergent phenomenon.

PubMed

Kinnear, John; Wilson, Nick; O'Dwyer, Anthony

2018-04-01

The complexity of modern clinical practice has highlighted the fallibility of individual clinicians' decision-making, with effective teamwork emerging as a key to patient safety. Dual process theory is widely accepted as a framework for individual decision-making, with type 1 processes responsible for fast, intuitive and automatic decisions and type 2 processes for slow, analytical decisions. However, dual process theory does not explain cognition at the group level, when individuals act in teams. Team cognition resulting from dynamic interaction of individuals is said to be more resilient to decision-making error and greater than simply aggregated cognition. Clinicians were paired as teams and asked to solve a cognitive puzzle constructed as a drug calculation. The frequency at which the teams made incorrect decisions was compared with that of individual clinicians answering the same question. When clinicians acted in pairs, 63% answered the cognitive puzzle correctly, compared with 33% of clinicians as individuals, showing a statistically significant difference in performance (χ 2 (1, n=116)=24.329, P<0.001). Based on the predicted performance of teams made up of the random pairing of individuals who had the same propensity to answer as previously, there was no statistical difference in the actual and predicted teams' performance. Teams are less prone to making errors of decision-making than individuals. However, the improved performance is likely to be owing to the effect of aggregated cognition rather than any improved decision-making as a result of the interaction. There is no evidence of team cognition as an emergent and distinct entity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Does Early Childhood Teacher Education Affect Students' Cognitive Orientations? The Effect of Different Education Tracks in Teacher Education on Prospective Early Childhood Teachers' Cognitive Orientations in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mischo, Christoph; Wahl, Stefan; Strohmer, Janina; Wolf, Carina

2014-01-01

Early childhood teachers may differ regarding the knowledge base they use when making professional decisions. In this study two orientations are distinguished: the orientation towards scientific knowledge vs. the orientation towards intuition and subjective experience. As different tracks in early childhood teacher education qualify for…

Developing Low-Cost Solutions to Improve Public Policy: The Work of MDRC's Center for Applied Behavioral Science. Issue Focus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MDRC, 2016

2016-01-01

Many social policy and education programs start from the assumption that people act in their best interest. But behavioral science shows that people often weigh intuition over reason, make inconsistent choices, and put off big decisions. The individuals and families who need services and the staff who provide them are no exception. From city…

Emotion-Based Learning and Central Executive Resources: An Investigation of Intuition and the Iowa Gambling Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turnbull, O.H.; Evans, C.E.Y.; Bunce, A.; Carzolio, B.; O'Connor, J.

2005-01-01

The role of emotion in complex decision-making can be assessed on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a widely used neuropsychological measure that may tap a different aspect of executive function than that assessed by conventional measures. Most notably, the 'feeling' about which decks are good or bad, often described in relation to IGT performance,…

The emergent relevance of care staff decision-making and situation awareness to mobility care in nursing homes: an ethnographic study.

PubMed

Taylor, Janice; Sims, Jane; Haines, Terry P

2014-12-01

To explore mobility care as provided by care staff in nursing homes. Care staff regularly assist residents with their mobility. Nurses are increasingly reliant on such staff to provide safe and quality mobility care. However, the nature of care staff decision-making when providing assistance has not been fully addressed in the literature. A focused ethnography. The study was conducted in four nursing homes in Melbourne, Australia. Non-participant observations of residents and staff in 2011. Focus groups with 18 nurses, care and lifestyle staff were conducted at three facilities in 2012. Thematic analysis was employed for focus groups and content analysis for observation data. Cognitive Continuum Theory and the notion of 'situation awareness' assisted data interpretation. Decision-making during mobility care emerged as a major theme. Using Cognitive Continuum Theory as a guide, nursing home staff's decision-making was described as ranging from system-aided, through resident- and peer-aided, to reflective and intuitive. Staff seemed aware of the need for resident-aided decision-making consistent with person-centred care. Habitual mobility care based on shared mental models occurred. It was noted that levels of situation awareness may vary among staff. Care staff may benefit from support via collaborative and reflective practice to develop decision-making skills, situation awareness and person-centred mobility care. Further research is required to explore the connection between staff's skills in mobility care and their decision-making competence as well as how these factors link to quality mobility care. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The perception of intuition in clinical practice by Iranian critical care nurses: a phenomenological study

PubMed Central

Hassani, Parkhide; Abdi, Alireza; Jalali, Rostam; Salari, Nader

2016-01-01

Background Intuition as a way of learning in nursing is applied to decision making and judgment in complicated clinical situations. Several studies have been conducted on intuition in clinical settings, but comprehension of this concept is unclear. Moreover, there is a lack of information about intuition in critical care nurses caring for more seriously ill patients. This study aimed to explore Iranian critical care nurses’ understanding of intuition in clinical practice. Methods In a descriptive–phenomenological study, 12 nurses employed in critical care units of the hospitals affiliated to Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences were purposively recruited to the study. A semistructured interview was administered, and then written verbatim. The data were managed by MAXQDA 10 software, and qualitative analysis was undertaken using the seven-stage approach of Colaizzi. Results Of the 12 nurses who participated in the study, 7 (58.3%) were female and married, and 10 (88.3%) held a bachelor’s degree in nursing. The mean and standard deviations of participants’ age, job experience, and critical care experience were 36.66±7.01, 13.75±6.82, and 7.66±3.36 years, respectively. Four main themes and eleven sub-themes were elicited from the qualitative analysis; the main themes including “Understanding intuition as a feeling”, “Understanding intuition as a thought”, “Understanding intuition as receiving signs”, and “Understanding intuition as an alarm”. Because they have trust in their own intuition, the nurses made further assessments and paid more attention to patients. They were also better prepared after receiving intuition alarms to perform the appropriate responses, and acting upon the alarms reduced the nurses’ physical and psychological signs. Conclusion The findings showed how intuition was understood by the critical care nurses; therefore, these results can be considered to form a theoretical basis for designing other studies. Because of the significant role of intuition in enhancing the nursing care of critically ill patients, it is suggested that more qualitative, quantitative, and trials studies be performed to reinforce intuition in nursing; moreover, to incorporate intuition into nursing curriculums, it should be debated in academic settings. PMID:27022306

The Colorectal Surgeon's personality may influence the rectal anastomotic decision.

PubMed

Moug, S J; Henderson, N; Tiernan, J; Bisset, C N; Ferguson, E; Harji, D; Maxwell-Armstrong, C; MacDermid, E; Acheson, A G; Steele, R J C; Fearnhead, N S

2018-06-14

Colorectal surgeons regularly make the decision to anastomose, defunction or form an end colostomy when performing rectal surgery. This study aimed to define personality traits of colorectal surgeons and explore any influence of such traits on the decision to perform a rectal anastomosis. 50 attendees of The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland 2016 conference participated. After written consent, all underwent personality testing: alexithymia (inability to understand emotions); type of thinking process (intuitive versus rational) and personality traits (extraversion; agreeableness; openness; emotional stability; conscientiousness). Questions were answered regarding anastomotic decisions in various clinical scenarios and results analysed to reveal any influence of the surgeon's personality on anastomotic decision. Participants were: male (86%); consultants (84%); England based (68%). Alexithymia was low (4%) with 81% displaying intuitive thinking (reflex, fast). Participants scored higher in emotional stability (ability to remain calm) and conscientiousness (organised, methodical) compared to population norms. Personality traits influenced the next anastomotic decision if: surgeons had recently received criticism at a departmental audit meeting; operating with an anaesthetist that is not your regular one; or there had been no anastomotic leaks in their patients for >1 year. Colorectal surgeons have speciality relevant personalities that potentially influence the important decision to anastomose and could explain the variation in surgical practice across the U.K. Future work should explore these findings in other countries and any link of personality traits to patient related outcomes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

[How much business management does a surgeon need?].

PubMed

Bork, U; Koch, M; Büchler, M W; Weitz, J

2010-08-01

The present day healthcare system in Germany is rapidly changing, even more so after the introduction of diagnosis-related groups. The basic requirements for every surgeon remain manual skills, a profound clinical knowledge and the ability for clinical decision-making even in difficult situations. However, these key elements of surgical education no longer fulfill the requirements for today's leaders in surgery. New requirements, consisting of administrative duties, strategic decision-making and department management are too complex to be made only intuitively. Nowadays surgeons also need a profound education in management skills and knowledge of economic mechanisms in order to run an efficient, profitable, patient-oriented surgical department. Every surgeon who aims at obtaining a leadership position should acquire the necessary knowledge and skills.

Communication-based behaviour support for adults with intellectual disabilities receiving dental care: A focus group study exploring dentists' decision-making and communication.

PubMed

Phadraig, Caoimhin Mac Giolla; Griffiths, Colin; McCallion, Philip; McCarron, Mary; Nunn, June

2017-01-01

A better understanding of how communication-based behaviour supports are applied with adults with intellectual disabilities may reduce reliance on restrictive practices such as holding, sedation and anaesthesia in dentistry. In this study, we explore how communication is used by dentists who provide treatment for adults with intellectual disabilities. A descriptive qualitative study, adopting synchronous online focus groups, was undertaken with six expert dentists in Ireland. Members were contacted again in pairs or individually for further data collection, analysed using thematic content analysis. Two relevant categories emerged from the data, relating to the selection and application of communication-based behaviour support for adults with intellectual disabilities. Decision-making processes were explored. Building on these categories, a co-regulating process of communication emerged as the means by which dentists iteratively apply and adapt communicative strategies. This exploration revealed rationalist and intuitive decision-making. Implications for education, practice and research are identified.

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Brown, Eleanor D.

2014-02-01

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.

Steps toward Promoting Consistency in Educational Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Joseph

2010-01-01

Purpose: The literature indicates the advantages of decisions formulated through intuition, as well as the limitations, such as lack of consistency in similar situations. The principle of consistency (invariance), requiring that two equivalent versions of choice-problems will produce the same preference, is violated in intuitive judgment. This…

Considering Information Up-to-Dateness to Increase the Accuracy of Therapy Decision Support Systems.

PubMed

Gaebel, Jan; Cypko, Mario A; Oeltze-Jafra, Steffen

2017-01-01

During the diagnostic process a lot of information is generated. All this information is assessed when making a final diagnosis and planning the therapy. While some patient information is stable, e.g., gender, others may become outdated, e.g., tumor size derived from CT data. Quantifying this information up-to-dateness and deriving consequences are difficult. Especially for the implementation in clinical decision support systems, this has not been studied. When information entities tend to become outdated, in practice, clinicians intuitively reduce their impact when making decisions. Therefore, in a system's calculations their impact should be reduced as well. We propose a method of decreasing the certainty of information entities based on their up-to-dateness. The method is tested in a decision support system for TNM staging based on Bayesian networks. We compared the actual N-state in records of 39 patients to the N-state calculated with and without decreasing data certainty. The results under decreased certainty correlated better with the actual states (r=0.958, p=0.008). We conclude that the up-to-dateness must be considered when processing clinical information to enhance decision making and ensure more patient safety.

Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

2014-11-01

We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n ≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E . We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

Subliminally and Supraliminally Acquired Long-Term Memories Jointly Bias Delayed Decisions.

PubMed

Ruch, Simon; Herbert, Elizabeth; Henke, Katharina

2017-01-01

Common wisdom and scientific evidence suggest that good decisions require conscious deliberation. But growing evidence demonstrates that not only conscious but also unconscious thoughts influence decision-making. Here, we hypothesize that both consciously and unconsciously acquired memories guide decisions. Our experiment measured the influence of subliminally and supraliminally presented information on delayed (30-40 min) decision-making. Participants were presented with subliminal pairs of faces and written occupations for unconscious encoding. Following a delay of 20 min, participants consciously (re-)encoded the same faces now presented supraliminally along with either the same written occupations, occupations congruous to the subliminally presented occupations (same wage-category), or incongruous occupations (opposite wage-category). To measure decision-making, participants viewed the same faces again (with occupations absent) and decided on the putative income of each person: low, low-average, high-average, or high. Participants were encouraged to decide spontaneously and intuitively. Hence, the decision task was an implicit or indirect test of relational memory. If conscious thought alone guided decisions (= H 0 ), supraliminal information should determine decision outcomes independently of the encoded subliminal information. This was, however, not the case. Instead, both unconsciously and consciously encoded memories influenced decisions: identical unconscious and conscious memories exerted the strongest bias on income decisions, while both incongruous and congruous (i.e., non-identical) subliminally and supraliminally formed memories canceled each other out leaving no bias on decisions. Importantly, the increased decision bias following the formation of identical unconscious and conscious memories and the reduced decision bias following to the formation of non-identical memories were determined relative to a control condition, where conscious memory formation alone could influence decisions. In view of the much weaker representational strength of subliminally vs. supraliminally formed memories, their long-lasting impact on decision-making is noteworthy.

Subliminally and Supraliminally Acquired Long-Term Memories Jointly Bias Delayed Decisions

PubMed Central

Ruch, Simon; Herbert, Elizabeth; Henke, Katharina

2017-01-01

Common wisdom and scientific evidence suggest that good decisions require conscious deliberation. But growing evidence demonstrates that not only conscious but also unconscious thoughts influence decision-making. Here, we hypothesize that both consciously and unconsciously acquired memories guide decisions. Our experiment measured the influence of subliminally and supraliminally presented information on delayed (30–40 min) decision-making. Participants were presented with subliminal pairs of faces and written occupations for unconscious encoding. Following a delay of 20 min, participants consciously (re-)encoded the same faces now presented supraliminally along with either the same written occupations, occupations congruous to the subliminally presented occupations (same wage-category), or incongruous occupations (opposite wage-category). To measure decision-making, participants viewed the same faces again (with occupations absent) and decided on the putative income of each person: low, low-average, high-average, or high. Participants were encouraged to decide spontaneously and intuitively. Hence, the decision task was an implicit or indirect test of relational memory. If conscious thought alone guided decisions (= H0), supraliminal information should determine decision outcomes independently of the encoded subliminal information. This was, however, not the case. Instead, both unconsciously and consciously encoded memories influenced decisions: identical unconscious and conscious memories exerted the strongest bias on income decisions, while both incongruous and congruous (i.e., non-identical) subliminally and supraliminally formed memories canceled each other out leaving no bias on decisions. Importantly, the increased decision bias following the formation of identical unconscious and conscious memories and the reduced decision bias following to the formation of non-identical memories were determined relative to a control condition, where conscious memory formation alone could influence decisions. In view of the much weaker representational strength of subliminally vs. supraliminally formed memories, their long-lasting impact on decision-making is noteworthy. PMID:28955268

Research implications of science-informed, value-based decision making.

PubMed

Dowie, Jack

2004-01-01

In 'Hard' science, scientists correctly operate as the 'guardians of certainty', using hypothesis testing formulations and value judgements about error rates and time discounting that make classical inferential methods appropriate. But these methods can neither generate most of the inputs needed by decision makers in their time frame, nor generate them in a form that allows them to be integrated into the decision in an analytically coherent and transparent way. The need for transparent accountability in public decision making under uncertainty and value conflict means the analytical coherence provided by the stochastic Bayesian decision analytic approach, drawing on the outputs of Bayesian science, is needed. If scientific researchers are to play the role they should be playing in informing value-based decision making, they need to see themselves also as 'guardians of uncertainty', ensuring that the best possible current posterior distributions on relevant parameters are made available for decision making, irrespective of the state of the certainty-seeking research. The paper distinguishes the actors employing different technologies in terms of the focus of the technology (knowledge, values, choice); the 'home base' mode of their activity on the cognitive continuum of varying analysis-to-intuition ratios; and the underlying value judgements of the activity (especially error loss functions and time discount rates). Those who propose any principle of decision making other than the banal 'Best Principle', including the 'Precautionary Principle', are properly interpreted as advocates seeking to have their own value judgements and preferences regarding mode location apply. The task for accountable decision makers, and their supporting technologists, is to determine the best course of action under the universal conditions of uncertainty and value difference/conflict.

>From individual choice to group decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galam, Serge; Zucker, Jean-Daniel

2000-12-01

Some universal features are independent of both the social nature of the individuals making the decision and the nature of the decision itself. On this basis a simple magnet like model is built. Pair interactions are introduced to measure the degree of exchange among individuals while discussing. An external uniform field is included to account for a possible pressure from outside. Individual biases with respect to the issue at stake are also included using local random fields. A unique postulate of minimum conflict is assumed. The model is then solved with emphasis on its psycho-sociological implications. Counter-intuitive results are obtained. At this stage no new physical technicality is involved. Instead the full psycho-sociological implications of the model are drawn. Few cases are then detailed to enlight them. In addition, several numerical experiments based on our model are shown to give both an insight on the dynamics of the model and suggest further research directions.

Compatibility of Land SAR Procedures with Search Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-12-30

collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 30 DEC 2003 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED...saving lives, especially when the distressed person is injured or the weather has become extreme enough to threaten continued survival. Locating...navies) can be sent scurrying around. A nervous principal or client can make intuitive decisions that are painfully wrong. In short, search

Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Elqayam, Shira

2017-10-01

Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people "should" or "ought to" make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision-making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence-based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision-making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret-based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta-rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is "rational" behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context-poor situations, such as policy decision-making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision-making, whereas in the context-rich circumstances other types of rationality, informed by human cognitive architecture and driven by intuition and emotions such as the aim to minimize regret, may provide better solution to the problem at hand. The choice of theory under which we operate is important as it determines both policy and our individual decision-making. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Command Decisionmaking in the Information Age: Is the Intuitive Thinker Doomed to Extinction?

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

situation. 14 Suresh Srivastva, The Executive Mind, (San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Inc., 1984), p. 172. The researcher, Jerome Bruner , summarized in...skills allow faster comprehension of unfamiliar situations, thus enabling the decisionmaker to act more rapidly than his opponent—a critical...has sufficient information been gathered to make the decision and act ? This question has been coined the “pistol problem,” and addresses an

Societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaughey, Jamie W.; Mundzir, Ibnu; Patt, Anthony; Rosemary, Rizanna; Safrina, Lely; Mahdi, Saiful; Daly, Patrick

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in forecasting extreme events force an unavoidable tradeoff between false alarms and misses. The appropriate balance depends on the level of societal acceptance of unnecessary evacuations, but there has been little empirical research on this. Intuitively it may seem that an unnecessary evacuation would make people less likely to evacuate again in the future, but our study finds no support for this intuition. Using new quantitative (n=800) and qualitative evidence, we examine individual- and household-level evacuation decisions in response to the strong 11-Apr-2012 earthquake in Aceh, Indonesia. This earthquake did not produce a tsunami, but the population had previously experienced the devastating 2004 tsunami. In our sample, the vast majority of people (86%) evacuated in the 2012 earthquake, and nearly all (94%) say they would evacuate again if a similar earthquake happened in the future. Self-reported level of fear at the moment of the 2012 earthquake explains more of the variance in evacuation decisions and intentions than does a combination of perceived tsunami risk and perceived efficacy of evacuation modeled on protection motivation theory. These findings suggest that the appropriate balance between false alarms and misses may be highly context-specific. Investigating this in each context would make an important contribution to the effectiveness of early-warning systems.

Evidence-based medicine in primary care: qualitative study of family physicians

PubMed Central

Tracy, C Shawn; Dantas, Guilherme Coelho; Upshur, Ross EG

2003-01-01

Background The objectives of this study were: a) to examine physician attitudes to and experience of the practice of evidence-based medicine (EBM) in primary care; b) to investigate the influence of patient preferences on clinical decision-making; and c) to explore the role of intuition in family practice. Method Qualitative analysis of semi-structured interviews of 15 family physicians purposively selected from respondents to a national survey on EBM mailed to a random sample of Canadian family physicians. Results Participants mainly welcomed the promotion of EBM in the primary care setting. A significant number of barriers and limitations to the implementation of EBM were identified. EBM is perceived by some physicians as a devaluation of the 'art of medicine' and a threat to their professional/clinical autonomy. Issues regarding the trustworthiness and credibility of evidence were of great concern, especially with respect to the influence of the pharmaceutical industry. Attempts to become more evidence-based often result in the experience of conflicts. Patient factors exert a powerful influence on clinical decision-making and can serve as trumps to research evidence. A widespread belief that intuition plays a vital role in primary care reinforced views that research evidence must be considered alongside other factors such as patient preferences and the clinical judgement and experience of the physician. Discussion Primary care physicians are increasingly keen to consider research evidence in clinical decision-making, but there are significant concerns about the current model of EBM. Our findings support the proposed revisions to EBM wherein greater emphasis is placed on clinical expertise and patient preferences, both of which remain powerful influences on physician behaviour. PMID:12740025

Multiobjective decision-making in integrated water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pouwels, I. H. M.; Wind, H. G.; Witter, V. J.

1995-08-01

Traditionally, decision-making by water authorities in the Netherlands is largely based on intuition. Their tasks were, after all, relatively few and straight-forward. The growing number of tasks, together with the new integrated approach on water management issues, however, induces water authorities to rationalise their decision process. In order to choose the most effective water management measures, the external effects of these measures need to be taken into account. Therefore, methods have been developed to incorporate these effects in the decision-making phase. Using analytical evaluation methods, the effects of various measures on the water system (physical and chemical quality, ecology and quantity) can be taken into consideration. In this manner a more cognitive way of choosing between alternative measures can be obtained. This paper describes an application of such a decision method on a river basin scale. Main topics, in this paper, are the extent to which uncertainties (in technical information and deficiencies in the techniques applied) limit the usefulness of these methods, and also the question whether these techniques can really be used to select measures that give maximum environmental benefit for minimum cost. It is shown that the influence of these restrictions on the validity of the outcome of the decision methods can be profound. Using these results, improvement of the methods can be realised.

Does reflection lead to wise choices?

PubMed Central

Bortolotti, Lisa

2011-01-01

Does conscious reflection lead to good decision-making? Whereas engaging in reflection is traditionally thought to be the best way to make wise choices, recent psychological evidence undermines the role of reflection in lay and expert judgement. The literature suggests that thinking about reasons does not improve the choices people make, and that experts do not engage in reflection, but base their judgements on intuition, often shaped by extensive previous experience. Can we square the traditional accounts of wisdom with the results of these empirical studies? Should we even attempt to? I shall defend the view that philosophy and cognitive sciences genuinely interact in tackling questions such as whether reflection leads to making wise choices. PMID:22408385

Lost in Space: Future Force Leaders and Visualization of Space Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-26

use terms like “sixth sense” or ESP ( extrasensory perception ) when discussing acts that he categorizes as intuition.120 Intuition is a critical...on knowledge, judgment, experience, education, intelligence, boldness, perception , and character.”110 The manual states that intuitive decision

Case-based clinical reasoning in feline medicine: 3: Use of heuristics and illness scripts.

PubMed

Whitehead, Martin L; Canfield, Paul J; Johnson, Robert; O'Brien, Carolyn R; Malik, Richard

2016-05-01

This is Article 3 of a three-part series on clinical reasoning that encourages practitioners to explore and understand how they think and make case-based decisions. It is hoped that, in the process, they will learn to trust their intuition but, at the same time, put in place safeguards to diminish the impact of bias and misguided logic on their diagnostic decision-making. Article 1, published in the January 2016 issue of JFMS, discussed the relative merits and shortcomings of System 1 thinking (immediate and unconscious) and System 2 thinking (effortful and analytical). In Article 2, published in the March 2016 issue, ways of managing cognitive error, particularly the negative impact of bias, in making a diagnosis were examined. This final article explores the use of heuristics (mental short cuts) and illness scripts in diagnostic reasoning. © The Author(s) 2016.

Case-based clinical reasoning in feline medicine: 2: Managing cognitive error.

PubMed

Canfield, Paul J; Whitehead, Martin L; Johnson, Robert; O'Brien, Carolyn R; Malik, Richard

2016-03-01

This is Article 2 of a three-part series on clinical reasoning that encourages practitioners to explore and understand how they think and make case-based decisions. It is hoped that, in the process, they will learn to trust their intuition but, at the same time, put in place safeguards to diminish the impact of bias and misguided logic on their diagnostic decision-making. Article 1, published in the January 2016 issue of JFMS, discussed the relative merits and shortcomings of System 1 thinking (immediate and unconscious) and System 2 thinking (effortful and analytical). This second article examines ways of managing cognitive error, particularly the negative impact of bias, when making a diagnosis. Article 3, to appear in the May 2016 issue, explores the use of heuristics (mental short cuts) and illness scripts in diagnostic reasoning. © The Author(s) 2016.

Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

PubMed Central

De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

2011-01-01

Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

High-level intuitive features (HLIFs) for intuitive skin lesion description.

PubMed

Amelard, Robert; Glaister, Jeffrey; Wong, Alexander; Clausi, David A

2015-03-01

A set of high-level intuitive features (HLIFs) is proposed to quantitatively describe melanoma in standard camera images. Melanoma is the deadliest form of skin cancer. With rising incidence rates and subjectivity in current clinical detection methods, there is a need for melanoma decision support systems. Feature extraction is a critical step in melanoma decision support systems. Existing feature sets for analyzing standard camera images are comprised of low-level features, which exist in high-dimensional feature spaces and limit the system's ability to convey intuitive diagnostic rationale. The proposed HLIFs were designed to model the ABCD criteria commonly used by dermatologists such that each HLIF represents a human-observable characteristic. As such, intuitive diagnostic rationale can be conveyed to the user. Experimental results show that concatenating the proposed HLIFs with a full low-level feature set increased classification accuracy, and that HLIFs were able to separate the data better than low-level features with statistical significance. An example of a graphical interface for providing intuitive rationale is given.

Pay What You Want! A Pilot Study on Neural Correlates of Voluntary Payments for Music

PubMed Central

Waskow, Simon; Markett, Sebastian; Montag, Christian; Weber, Bernd; Trautner, Peter; Kramarz, Volkmar; Reuter, Martin

2016-01-01

Pay-what-you-want (PWYW) is an alternative pricing mechanism for consumer goods. It describes an exchange situation in which the price for a given good is not set by the seller but freely chosen by the buyer. In recent years, many enterprises have made use of PWYW auctions. The somewhat contra-intuitive success of PWYW has sparked a great deal of behavioral work on economical decision making in PWYW contexts in the past. Empirical studies on the neural basis of PWYW decisions, however, are scarce. In the present paper, we present an experimental protocol to study PWYW decision making while simultaneously acquiring functional magnetic resonance imaging data. Participants have the possibility to buy music either under a traditional “fixed-price” (FP) condition or in a condition that allows them to freely decide on the price. The behavioral data from our experiment replicate previous results on the general feasibility of the PWYW mechanism. On the neural level, we observe distinct differences between the two conditions: In the FP-condition, neural activity in frontal areas during decision-making correlates positively with the participants’ willingness to pay. No such relationship was observed under PWYW conditions in any neural structure. Directly comparing neural activity during PWYW and the FP-condition we observed stronger activity of the lingual gyrus during PWYW decisions. Results demonstrate the usability of our experimental paradigm for future investigations into PWYW decision-making and provides first insights into neural mechanisms during self-determined pricing decisions. PMID:27458416

[Tacit Knowledge: Characteristics in nursing practice].

PubMed

Pérez-Fuillerat, Natalia; Solano-Ruiz, M Carmen; Amezcua, Manuel

2018-01-20

Tacit knowledge can be defined as knowledge which is used intuitively and unconsciously, which is acquired through one's experience, characterized by being personal and contextual. Some terms such as 'intuition', 'know how' and 'implicit knowledge' have been used to describe tacit knowledge. Different disciplines in the fields of management or health have studied tacit knowledge, identifying it as a powerful tool to create knowledge and clinical decision-making. The aim of this review is to analyse the definition and characteristics that make up tacit knowledge and determine the role it plays in the nursing discipline. An integrative review was undertaken of the literature published up to November 2016 in the databases CUIDEN, SciELO, PubMed, Cochrane and CINAHL. The synthesis and interpretation of the data was performed by two researchers through content analysis. From a total of 819 articles located, 35 articles on tacit knowledge and nursing were chosen. There is no consensus on the name and description of results in tacit knowledge. The main characteristics of tacit knowledge have a personal and social character, which is used from an organised mental structure, called mindline. This structure relates to the use of tacit knowledge on clinical decision-making. Previous studies on tacit knowledge and nursing provide the nursing community with perspectives without going into depth. The production of a framework is suggested, as it would clarify implied concepts and its role on the management of nursing knowledge. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.

PubMed

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science.

A Web-based graphical user interface for evidence-based decision making for health care allocations in rural areas

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Nadine; Leight, Margo; Berube, Myriam

2008-01-01

Background The creation of successful health policy and location of resources increasingly relies on evidence-based decision-making. The development of intuitive, accessible tools to analyse, display and disseminate spatial data potentially provides the basis for sound policy and resource allocation decisions. As health services are rationalized, the development of tools such graphical user interfaces (GUIs) is especially valuable at they assist decision makers in allocating resources such that the maximum number of people are served. GIS can used to develop GUIs that enable spatial decision making. Results We have created a Web-based GUI (wGUI) to assist health policy makers and administrators in the Canadian province of British Columbia make well-informed decisions about the location and allocation of time-sensitive service capacities in rural regions of the province. This tool integrates datasets for existing hospitals and services, regional populations and road networks to allow users to ascertain the percentage of population in any given service catchment who are served by a specific health service, or baskets of linked services. The wGUI allows policy makers to map trauma and obstetric services against rural populations within pre-specified travel distances, illustrating service capacity by region. Conclusion The wGUI can be used by health policy makers and administrators with little or no formal GIS training to visualize multiple health resource allocation scenarios. The GUI is poised to become a critical decision-making tool especially as evidence is increasingly required for distribution of health services. PMID:18793428

Decision-making process of women carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation who have chosen prophylactic mastectomy.

PubMed

McQuirter, Megan; Castiglia, Luisa Luciani; Loiselle, Carmen G; Wong, Nora

2010-05-01

To explore the decision-making process of women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation who have chosen to undergo prophylactic mastectomy. Cross-sectional, qualitative, descriptive design. Participants were recruited from an outpatient cancer prevention center in the oncology and medical genetics departments of a large university-affiliated hospital in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 10 women carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation; 8 previously had had a prophylactic mastectomy and 2 were scheduled for surgery at the time of study. Semistructured, in-depth interviews were conducted. Field notes were written and audiotapes were transcribed verbatim. The textual data were coded and analyzed. Decision-making process for prophylactic mastectomy. Two broad findings emerged. First, several intrapersonal and contextual factors interacted throughout the process to move women either closer to choosing a prophylactic mastectomy or further from the decision. Second, all women reported experiencing a "pivotal point," an emotionally charged event when the decision to have a prophylactic mastectomy became definitive. Pivotal points for patients included either receiving a positive result for a genetic mutation or a breast cancer diagnosis for herself or a family member in the context of positive mutation status. Decision making about prophylactic mastectomy was an affective and intuitive process incorporating contexts and their relations rather than a rational, straight-forward process of weighing pros and cons. Supportive interventions for women in this population should explicitly address the individual and the inter-relationships of contextual factors that shape decision making about prophylactic mastectomy while recognizing important affective components involved.

Appreciating the World: A Framework for Doing Socio-Political Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-08

intuitively understand the structure will result in some individuals poaching elephants for personal gain and know that selfish interest can drive...ivory poaching in Africa. The group is focused on improving a condition they view negatively, thus progressing to a better state of affairs. They...The soldier provides a unique opportunity to explore the impact of interests on individual decision making. The soldier’s split identity meant he had a

Risk Identification in Major Weapon Systems Acquisition in the Republic of China Air Force

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-09-01

Association. Washington DC, 1985. 22. Agor , Weston H . "How Top Executives Use Their Intuition to Make Important Decisions," Business Horizon. New York NY, (Jan...Data for Supportability Risk Drivers ..................................... 141 Appendix H : Ranked Data for Supportability Risk Drivers after Ties...block the observations may be ranked according to criterion of interest (26:299). B. Procedures. 1. Hypotheses. H Each ranking of the random variables

Portfolio Management Decision Support Tools Analysis Relating to Management Value Metrics

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

creative activities that have been labeled “management dark matter ” (Housel and Kanevsky, 2007). Further, this new source of data can be used, not...organization. “The idea of management dark matter is introduced in this literature as the use of manager’s creative insights when they attempt to...we account for the dark matter or intuitive (i.e., non-algorithmically definable) heuristics that allow a manager to make creative management

Impaired intuition in patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Remmers, Carina; Topolinski, Sascha; Dietrich, Detlef E; Michalak, Johannes

2015-06-01

In daily life, many decisions of minor and major importance have to be made. Thereby, intuitive judgments serve as useful guides and help us to adapt to our environment. People with major depressive disorder (MDD) often have difficulties to come to decisions. Is their intuition impaired? Since this question has not been addressed until now, the present study explored intuition in MDD. Depressed patients (n = 29) and healthy control participants (n = 27) completed the Judgment of Semantic Coherence Task, a well-established paradigm used in basic cognitive research to measure intuition. Furthermore, participants' severity of depressive symptoms (BDI-II), negative affect (PANAS), and rumination (RSQ) were assessed. All participants were interviewed with the SCID. Depressed patients showed impaired intuition compared to healthy control participants. In the depressed sample, negative affect accounts for the association between rumination and impaired intuition. Results further reveal that negative affect overall mediates the depression-intuition relationship. Patients with diminished ability to concentrate or indecisiveness had lower intuition indices compared to patients who did not fulfil this diagnostic criterion of MDD. The study introduces the phenomenon of intuition into depression research. Additionally, these results extent findings from basic research showing that induced negative mood as well difficulties to down-regulate negative affect impair intuitive coherence judgments. Current results indicate that the negative affectivity of patients is the crucial mediator in the association between depression and impaired intuition. Limitations of the study as well as the potential etiological role of intuition in MDD are discussed. The finding that intuition is impaired in depressed patients extends our knowledge as to the cognitive profile of patients with MDD. Patients who suffer from indecisiveness have lower intuition indices compared to patients who do not fulfill this diagnostic criterion of MDD. Due to the cross-sectional design, final conclusions as to the etiological role of intuition in MDD cannot be drawn. The question remains open whether impaired intuition is specific to MDD. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Project on the Good Physician: A Proposal for a Moral Intuitionist Model of Virtuous Caring.

PubMed

Michael Leffel, G; Oakes Mueller, Ross A; Ham, Sandra A; Curlin, Farr A; Yoon, John D

2017-01-01

In the Project on the Good Physician, the authors endeavor to advance medical character education by proposing and testing a moral intuitionist model of virtuous caring that may be applicable to physician training. This model proposes that the moral intuition to care/harm motivates students to extend care to those in need. Hypothesis 1: Medical students will report stronger preferences for the intuition to Care/harm over other moral intuitions in clinical decision making. Hypothesis 2: Care/harm will have the strongest correlation with Generosity than the other moral intuitions. Hypothesis 3: There will be positive associations between Care/harm and the caring virtues (Mindfulness, Empathic Compassion, and Generosity). Hypotheses 4-5: The virtue of Empathic Compassion (or Mindfulness) will moderate the relationship between Care/harm and Generosity. Hypotheses 6-7: Neuroticism (or Burnout) will negatively moderate the association between Care/harm and Generosity (or between Empathic Compassion and Generosity). The authors used data from a 2011 nationally representative sample of U.S. medical students (N = 500) to test the relationship between the moral intuition to Care/harm and physician caring virtues. Moral intuitions were assessed using the Moral Foundations Questionnaire, whereas physician virtues were measured using scales adapted from validated constructs. The authors found that students reported stronger preferences for the intuition to Care/harm over the four other moral intuitions. Each moral foundation was weakly but significantly correlated with Generosity, yet Care/harm had the strongest correlation among them. Neuroticism and Burnout did not weaken the link between Care/harm and the virtues. Data from the descriptive-correlational study reported here offer preliminary support for the construct validity of an educational model that targets the moral intuitions. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of a moral intuitionist approach for medical character education and offers three hypotheses for future empirical research.

Fast to forgive, slow to retaliate: intuitive responses in the ultimatum game depend on the degree of unfairness.

PubMed

Ferguson, Eamonn; Maltby, John; Bibby, Peter A; Lawrence, Claire

2014-01-01

Evolutionary accounts have difficulty explaining why people cooperate with anonymous strangers they will never meet. Recently models, focusing on emotional processing, have been proposed as a potential explanation, with attention focusing on a dual systems approach based on system 1 (fast, intuitive, automatic, effortless, and emotional) and system 2 (slow, reflective, effortful, proactive and unemotional). Evidence shows that when cooperation is salient, people are fast (system 1) to cooperate, but with longer delays (system 2) they show greed. This is interpreted within the framework of the social heuristic hypothesis (SHH), whereby people overgeneralize potentially advantageous intuitively learnt and internalization social norms to 'atypical' situations. We extend this to explore intuitive reactions to unfairness by integrating the SHH with the 'fast to forgive, slow to anger' (FFSA) heuristic. This suggests that it is advantageous to be prosocial when facing uncertainty. We propose that whether or not someone intuitively shows prosociality (cooperation) or retaliation is moderated by the degree (certainty) of unfairness. People should intuitively cooperate when facing mild levels of unfairness (fast to forgive) but when given longer to decide about another's mild level of unfairness should retaliate (slow to anger). However, when facing severe levels of unfairness, the intuitive response is always retaliation. We test this using a series of one-shot ultimatum games and manipulate level of offer unfairness (50:50 60:40, 70:30, 80:20, 90:10) and enforced time delays prior to responding (1s, 2s, 8s, 15s). We also measure decision times to make responses after the time delays. The results show that when facing mildly unfair offers (60:40) people are fast (intuitive) to cooperate but with longer delays reject these mildly unfair offers: 'fast to forgive, and slow to retaliate'. However, for severely unfair offers (90:10) the intuitive and fast response is to always reject.

Fast to Forgive, Slow to Retaliate: Intuitive Responses in the Ultimatum Game Depend on the Degree of Unfairness

PubMed Central

Ferguson, Eamonn; Maltby, John; Bibby, Peter A.; Lawrence, Claire

2014-01-01

Evolutionary accounts have difficulty explaining why people cooperate with anonymous strangers they will never meet. Recently models, focusing on emotional processing, have been proposed as a potential explanation, with attention focusing on a dual systems approach based on system 1 (fast, intuitive, automatic, effortless, and emotional) and system 2 (slow, reflective, effortful, proactive and unemotional). Evidence shows that when cooperation is salient, people are fast (system 1) to cooperate, but with longer delays (system 2) they show greed. This is interpreted within the framework of the social heuristic hypothesis (SHH), whereby people overgeneralize potentially advantageous intuitively learnt and internalization social norms to ‘atypical’ situations. We extend this to explore intuitive reactions to unfairness by integrating the SHH with the ‘fast to forgive, slow to anger’ (FFSA) heuristic. This suggests that it is advantageous to be prosocial when facing uncertainty. We propose that whether or not someone intuitively shows prosociality (cooperation) or retaliation is moderated by the degree (certainty) of unfairness. People should intuitively cooperate when facing mild levels of unfairness (fast to forgive) but when given longer to decide about another's mild level of unfairness should retaliate (slow to anger). However, when facing severe levels of unfairness, the intuitive response is always retaliation. We test this using a series of one-shot ultimatum games and manipulate level of offer unfairness (50:50 60:40, 70:30, 80:20, 90:10) and enforced time delays prior to responding (1s, 2s, 8s, 15s). We also measure decision times to make responses after the time delays. The results show that when facing mildly unfair offers (60:40) people are fast (intuitive) to cooperate but with longer delays reject these mildly unfair offers: ‘fast to forgive, and slow to retaliate’. However, for severely unfair offers (90:10) the intuitive and fast response is to always reject. PMID:24820479

The menu-setting problem and subsidized prices: drug formulary illustration.

PubMed

Olmstead, T; Zeckhauser, R

1999-10-01

The menu-setting problem (MSP) determines the goods and services an institution offers and the prices charged. It appears widely in health care, from choosing the services an insurance arrangement offers, to selecting the health plans an employer proffers. The challenge arises because purchases are subsidized, and consumers (or their physician agents) may make cost-ineffective choices. The intuitively comprehensible MSP model--readily solved by computer using actual data--helps structure thinking and support decision making about such problems. The analysis uses drug formularies--lists of approved drugs in a plan or institution--to illustrate the framework.

Dual processing model of medical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Beckstead, Jason; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Pauker, Stephen G

2012-09-03

Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. We show that physician's beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker's threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories).

Temporal Immediacy: A Two-System Theory of Mind for Understanding and Changing Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Cook, Paul F; Schmiege, Sarah J; Reeder, Blaine; Horton-Deutsch, Sara; Lowe, Nancy K; Meek, Paula

Health promotion and chronic disease management both require behavior change, but people find it hard to change behavior despite having good intentions. The problem arises because patients' narratives about experiences and intentions are filtered through memory and language. These narratives inaccurately reflect intuitive decision-making or actual behaviors. We propose a principle-temporal immediacy-as a moderator variable that explains which of two mental systems (narrative or intuitive) will be activated in any given situation. We reviewed multiple scientific areas to test temporal immediacy as an explanation for findings. In an iterative process, we used evidence from philosophy, cognitive neuroscience, behavioral economics, symptom science, and ecological momentary assessment to develop our theoretical perspective. These perspectives each suggest two cognitive systems that differ in their level of temporal immediacy: an intuitive system that produces behavior in response to everyday states and a narrative system that interprets and explains these experiences after the fact. Writers from Plato onward describe two competing influences on behavior-often with moral overtones. People tend to identify with the language-based narrative system and blame unhelpful results on the less accessible intuitive system, but neither is completely rational, and the intuitive system has strengths based on speed and serial processing. The systems differ based on temporal immediacy-the description of an experience as either "now" or "usually"-with the intuitive system generating behaviors automatically in real time and the narrative system producing beliefs about the past or future. The principle of temporal immediacy is a tool to integrate nursing science with other disciplinary traditions and to improve research and practice. Interventions should build on each system's strengths, rather than treating the intuitive system as a barrier for the narrative system to overcome. Nursing researchers need to study the roles and effects of both systems.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework.

PubMed

Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E

2016-05-03

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.

Medicine, psychiatry and euthanasia: an argument against mandatory psychiatric review.

PubMed

Parker, M

2000-04-01

The paper critically appraises the argument that requests for active assistance to die should be subject to mandatory psychiatric assessment. The argument for mandatory psychiatric assessment is usually supported by an appeal to the need for safeguards against errors and omissions in both the diagnosis of psychiatric conditions affecting the terminally ill and the exploration of the meanings of their requests. This intuitively appealing view is challenged through a broader analysis which examines connections between medicine's traditional adherence to the moral distinction between acts and omissions and the following issues: the historical relationship between medical practice and dying, the recent development of research into treatment-withdrawal decisions, the scientific status of psychiatry, the logic of rationality and decision-making competence. The analysis reveals a number of hitherto unexamined and unacknowledged influences which would make psychiatric review of requests for assisted death a much less objective and impartial process than is assumed. Mandatory psychiatric review is an instance of the medicalisation of death and dying which could abridge the freedom of certain individuals to make decisions about their deaths.

Managing stress in a crisis.

PubMed

Wright-Reid, Alison

2018-01-01

Crisis situations are inherently uncertain and threatening. Although the primal stress reactions they provoke deliver some advantages, they so severely restrict intellect and behaviour that consultants observe crisis teams making the same mistakes over and again. Stress risks can be managed before, during and after a crisis. Crisis planning can select the right people, control the crisis team environment, and mitigate fatigue risks and memory demands. Because stress reactions are primitive, stress can be manipulated at a remarkably primitive level and teams can increase their resilience through such basics as sleep and breathing skills. Teams can learn to manipulate perceptions of danger, to tolerate uncertainty and to become comfortable making decisions which were reasonable at the time. Crisis leaders can frame the crisis as a challenge and options as gains, and can ensure the team avoids groupthink and challenges the paradigm. Where individuals are trained to apply critical thinking processes, intuitive decision-making is not only fast, but also accurate, and helps to challenge assumptions, predictions and groupthink. Crises are more easily recognised and managed where training has covered critical decision methods.

Seemingly irrational driving behavior model: The effect of habit strength and anticipated affective reactions.

PubMed

Chung, Yi-Shih

2015-09-01

An increasing amount of evidence suggests that aberrant driving behaviors are not entirely rational. On the basis of the dual-process theory, this study postulates that drivers may learn to perform irrational aberrant driving behaviors, and these behaviors could be derived either from a deliberate or an intuitive decision-making approach. Accordingly, a seemingly irrational driving behavior model is proposed; in this model, the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was adopted to represent the deliberate decision-making mechanism, and habit strength was incorporated to reflect the intuitive decision process. A multiple trivariate mediation structure was designed to reflect the process through which driving behaviors are learned. Anticipated affective reactions (AARs) were further included to examine the effect of affect on aberrant driving behaviors. Considering the example of speeding behaviors, this study developed scales and conducted a two-wave survey of students in two departments at a university in Northern Taiwan. The analysis results show that habit strength consists of multiple aspects, and frequency of past behavior cannot be a complete repository for accumulating habit strength. Habit strength appeared to be a crucial mediator between intention antecedents (e.g., attitude) and the intention itself. Including habit strength in the TPB model enhanced the explained variance of speeding intention by 26.7%. In addition, AARs were different from attitudes; particularly, young drivers tended to perform speeding behaviors to reduce negative feelings such as regret. The proposed model provides an effective alternative approach for investigating aberrant driving behaviors; corresponding countermeasures are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sleep Increases Explicit Solutions and Reduces Intuitive Judgments of Semantic Coherence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zander, Thea; Volz, Kirsten G.; Born, Jan; Diekelmann, Susanne

2017-01-01

Sleep fosters the generation of explicit knowledge. Whether sleep also benefits implicit intuitive decisions about underlying patterns is unclear. We examined sleep's role in explicit and intuitive semantic coherence judgments. Participants encoded sets of three words and after a sleep or wake period were required to judge the potential…

Reproductive autonomy, the non-identity problem, and the non-person problem.

PubMed

DiSilvestro, Russell

2009-01-01

The Non-Identity Problem is the problem of explaining the apparent wrongness of a decision that does not harm people, especially since some of the people affected by the decision would not exist at all were it not for the decision. One approach to this problem, in the context of reproductive decisions, is to focus on wronging, rather than harming, one's offspring. But a Non-Person Problem emerges for any view that claims (1) that only persons can be wronged and (2) that the person-making properties allow for there to be human non-persons. Consider an individual human organism that is prevented from ever possessing the person-making properties. On person-only accounts of the victims of wronging, this organism cannot be wronged by anyone. Hence even individuals whose decisions prevent it from ever possessing the person-making properties cannot wrong it. But this is counter-intuitive. We can think of examples where a human organism is wronged by precisely those decisions that prevent it from possessing the person-making properties. The best solution to this problem, in the case where the person-making property is rational self-governance in pursuit of a meaningful life, is to adjust the concept of a person so that it refers, not merely to those with the immediate capacity for rational self-governance in pursuit of a meaningful life, but also to those with a higher-order capacity for such self-governance. Any solution to the Non-Identity Problem that focuses on wronging rather than harming should incorporate this sort of solution to the Non-Person Problem.

[Clinical judgment is a schema. Conceptual proposals and training perspectives.

PubMed

Nagels, Marc

2017-06-01

Clinical judgment is a critical concept for the development of nursing and nursing education. Its theoretical origins are multiple and its definition is not yet consensus. The analysis of the scientific and professional literature shows heterogeneous and dispersed points of views, notably on the role of intuition, on its cognitive and metacognitive dimensions, and on its proximity to other concepts. Between professional stakes and epistemological constructions, clinical judgment is still an emerging concept.To overcome the obstacle and contribute to the theoretical effort, we will argue that clinical judgment must be analyzed as a schema. It presents all the characteristics : diagnosis and information necessary for reasoning, rational decision-making process, metacognitive control and evaluation of decision-making. Perspectives then open to better understand the nursing activity.In conclusion, recommendations for developing clinical judgment in training will be presented.

Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaradaghi, Mohammed

Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and techniques that can provide more flexibility and inclusiveness in the decision making process, such as Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. However, it can be observed that the MCDM literature: 1) is primarily focused on suggesting certain MCDM techniques to specific problems without providing sufficient evidence for their selection, 2) is inadequate in addressing MCDM in E&P portfolio selection and prioritization compared with other fields, and 3) does not address prioritizing brownfields (i.e., developed oilfields). This research study aims at addressing the above drawbacks through combining three MCDM methods (i.e., AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS) into a single decision making tool that can support optimal oilfield portfolio investment decisions by helping determine the share of each oilfield of the total development resources allocated. Selecting these methods is reinforced by a pre-deployment and post-deployment validation framework. In addition, this study proposes a two-dimensional consistency test to verify the output coherence or prioritization stability of the MCDM methods in comparison with an intuitive approach. Nine scenarios representing all possible outcomes of the internal and external consistency tests are further proposed to reach a conclusion. The methodology is applied to a case study of six major oilfields in Iraq to generate percentage shares of each oilfield of a total production target that is in line with Iraq's aspiration to increase oil production. However, the methodology is intended to be applicable to other E&P portfolio investment prioritization scenarios by taking the specific contextual characteristics into consideration.

Moral Intuition and the Professional Military Ethic

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-14

civilization. Emotion is primary in human culture and it‟s in influence is unquestionable – it absolutely dominates the human sense of morality . The...person that are made with respect to a set of virtues [and behaviors] held to be obligatory by members of a culture or sub- culture . Moral reasoning...formula for postmodern relativism . When it comes to morality and ethics, the “how to” decision-making process is never as important as what our Soldier

When 'solutions of yesterday become problems of today': crisis-ridden decision making in a complex adaptive system (CAS)--the Additional Duty Hours Allowance in Ghana.

PubMed

Agyepong, Irene Akua; Kodua, Augustina; Adjei, Sam; Adam, Taghreed

2012-10-01

Implementation of policies (decisions) in the health sector is sometimes defeated by the system's response to the policy itself. This can lead to counter-intuitive, unanticipated, or more modest effects than expected by those who designed the policy. The health sector fits the characteristics of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and complexity is at the heart of this phenomenon. Anticipating both positive and negative effects of policy decisions, understanding the interests, power and interaction between multiple actors; and planning for the delayed and distal impact of policy decisions are essential for effective decision making in CAS. Failure to appreciate these elements often leads to a series of reductionist approach interventions or 'fixes'. This in turn can initiate a series of negative feedback loops that further complicates the situation over time. In this paper we use a case study of the Additional Duty Hours Allowance (ADHA) policy in Ghana to illustrate these points. Using causal loop diagrams, we unpack the intended and unintended effects of the policy and how these effects evolved over time. The overall goal is to advance our understanding of decision making in complex adaptive systems; and through this process identify some essential elements in formulating, updating and implementing health policy that can help to improve attainment of desired outcomes and minimize negative unintended effects.

Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

PubMed

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

2016-02-01

Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103 adults' (age range: 21-22 years) search behaviors and decisions under different probability dispersions (.17; .33, .83 vs. .50, .67, .83) and constraint conditions (instructions to limit search: yes vs. no). All age groups limited their depth of search when instructed to do so and when probability dispersion was high (range: .17-.83). Unlike adults, children failed to use probabilities as weights for their searches, which were largely not systematic. When examining choices, however, elementary school children (unlike preschoolers) systematically used probabilities as weights in their decisions. This suggests that an intuitive understanding of probabilities and the capacity to use them as weights during integration is not a sufficient condition for applying simple selective search strategies that place one's focus on weight distributions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

The association between patient attitudes and values and the strength of consideration for contralateral prophylactic mastectomy in a population-based sample of breast cancer patients.

PubMed

Hawley, Sarah T; Griffith, Kent A; Hamilton, Ann S; Ward, Kevin C; Morrow, Monica; Janz, Nancy K; Katz, Steven J; Jagsi, Reshma

2017-12-01

Little is known about how the individual decision styles and values of breast cancer patients at the time of treatment decision making are associated with the consideration of different treatment options and specifically with the consideration of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM). Newly diagnosed patients with early-stage breast cancer who were treated in 2013-2014 were identified through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries of Los Angeles and Georgia and were surveyed approximately 7 months after surgery (n = 2578; response rate, 71%). The primary outcome was the consideration of CPM (strong vs less strong). The association between patients' values and decision styles and strong consideration was assessed with multivariate logistic regression. Approximately one-quarter of women (25%) reported strong/very strong consideration of CPM, and another 29% considered it moderately/weakly. Decision styles, including a rational-intuitive approach to decision making, varied. The factors most valued by women at the time of treatment decision making were as follows: avoiding worry about recurrence (82%) and reducing the need for more surgery (73%). In a multivariate analysis, patients who preferred to make their own decisions, those who valued avoiding worry about recurrence, and those who valued avoiding radiation significantly more often strongly considered CPM (P < .05), whereas those who reported being more logical and those who valued keeping their breast did so less often. Many patients considered CPM, and the consideration was associated with both decision styles and values. The variability in decision styles and values observed in this study suggests that formally evaluating these characteristics at or before the initial treatment encounter could provide an opportunity for improving patient clinician discussions. Cancer 2017;123:4547-4555. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Do the right thing: the assumption of optimality in lay decision theory and causal judgment.

PubMed

Johnson, Samuel G B; Rips, Lance J

2015-03-01

Human decision-making is often characterized as irrational and suboptimal. Here we ask whether people nonetheless assume optimal choices from other decision-makers: Are people intuitive classical economists? In seven experiments, we show that an agent's perceived optimality in choice affects attributions of responsibility and causation for the outcomes of their actions. We use this paradigm to examine several issues in lay decision theory, including how responsibility judgments depend on the efficacy of the agent's actual and counterfactual choices (Experiments 1-3), individual differences in responsibility assignment strategies (Experiment 4), and how people conceptualize decisions involving trade-offs among multiple goals (Experiments 5-6). We also find similar results using everyday decision problems (Experiment 7). Taken together, these experiments show that attributions of responsibility depend not only on what decision-makers do, but also on the quality of the options they choose not to take. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Response time in economic games reflects different types of decision conflict for prosocial and proself individuals.

PubMed

Yamagishi, Toshio; Matsumoto, Yoshie; Kiyonari, Toko; Takagishi, Haruto; Li, Yang; Kanai, Ryota; Sakagami, Masamichi

2017-06-13

Behavioral and neuroscientific studies explore two pathways through which internalized social norms promote prosocial behavior. One pathway involves internal control of impulsive selfishness, and the other involves emotion-based prosocial preferences that are translated into behavior when they evade cognitive control for pursuing self-interest. We measured 443 participants' overall prosocial behavior in four economic games. Participants' predispositions [social value orientation (SVO)] were more strongly reflected in their overall game behavior when they made decisions quickly than when they spent a longer time. Prosocially (or selfishly) predisposed participants behaved less prosocially (or less selfishly) when they spent more time in decision making, such that their SVO prosociality yielded limited effects in actual behavior in their slow decisions. The increase (or decrease) in slower decision makers was prominent among consistent prosocials (or proselfs) whose strong preference for prosocial (or proself) goals would make it less likely to experience conflict between prosocial and proself goals. The strong effect of RT on behavior in consistent prosocials (or proselfs) suggests that conflict between prosocial and selfish goals alone is not responsible for slow decisions. Specifically, we found that contemplation of the risk of being exploited by others (social risk aversion) was partly responsible for making consistent prosocials (but not consistent proselfs) spend longer time in decision making and behave less prosocially. Conflict between means rather than between goals (immediate versus strategic pursuit of self-interest) was suggested to be responsible for the time-related increase in consistent proselfs' prosocial behavior. The findings of this study are generally in favor of the intuitive cooperation model of prosocial behavior.

Accuracy of 'My Gut Feeling:' Comparing System 1 to System 2 Decision-Making for Acuity Prediction, Disposition and Diagnosis in an Academic Emergency Department.

PubMed

Cabrera, Daniel; Thomas, Jonathan F; Wiswell, Jeffrey L; Walston, James M; Anderson, Joel R; Hess, Erik P; Bellolio, M Fernanda

2015-09-01

Current cognitive sciences describe decision-making using the dual-process theory, where a System 1 is intuitive and a System 2 decision is hypothetico-deductive. We aim to compare the performance of these systems in determining patient acuity, disposition and diagnosis. Prospective observational study of emergency physicians assessing patients in the emergency department of an academic center. Physicians were provided the patient's chief complaint and vital signs and allowed to observe the patient briefly. They were then asked to predict acuity, final disposition (home, intensive care unit (ICU), non-ICU bed) and diagnosis. A patient was classified as sick by the investigators using previously published objective criteria. We obtained 662 observations from 289 patients. For acuity, the observers had a sensitivity of 73.9% (95% CI [67.7-79.5%]), specificity 83.3% (95% CI [79.5-86.7%]), positive predictive value 70.3% (95% CI [64.1-75.9%]) and negative predictive value 85.7% (95% CI [82.0-88.9%]). For final disposition, the observers made a correct prediction in 80.8% (95% CI [76.1-85.0%]) of the cases. For ICU admission, emergency physicians had a sensitivity of 33.9% (95% CI [22.1-47.4%]) and a specificity of 96.9% (95% CI [94.0-98.7%]). The correct diagnosis was made 54% of the time with the limited data available. System 1 decision-making based on limited information had a sensitivity close to 80% for acuity and disposition prediction, but the performance was lower for predicting ICU admission and diagnosis. System 1 decision-making appears insufficient for final decisions in these domains but likely provides a cognitive framework for System 2 decision-making.

Experiential and rational decision making: a survey to determine how emergency physicians make clinical decisions.

PubMed

Calder, Lisa A; Forster, Alan J; Stiell, Ian G; Carr, Laura K; Brehaut, Jamie C; Perry, Jeffrey J; Vaillancourt, Christian; Croskerry, Patrick

2012-10-01

Dual-process psychological theories argue that clinical decision making is achieved through a combination of experiential (fast and intuitive) and rational (slower and systematic) cognitive processes. To determine whether emergency physicians perceived their clinical decisions in general to be more experiential or rational and how this compared with other physicians. A validated psychometric tool, the Rational Experiential Inventory (REI-40), was sent through postal mail to all emergency physicians registered with the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario, according to their website in November 2009. Forty statements were ranked on a Likert scale from 1 (Definitely False) to 5 (Definitely True). An initial survey was sent out, followed by reminder cards and a second survey to non-respondents. Analysis included descriptive statistics, Student t tests, analysis of variance and comparison of mean scores with those of cardiologists from New Zealand. The response rate in this study was 46.9% (434/925). The respondents' median age was 41-50 years; they were mostly men (72.6%) and most had more than 10 years of clinical experience (66.8%). The mean REI-40 rational scores were higher than the experiential scores (3.93/5 (SD 0.35) vs 3.33/5 (SD 0.49), p<0.0001), similar to the mean scores of cardiologists from New Zealand (mean rational 3.93/5, mean experiential 3.05/5). The mean experiential scores were significantly higher for female respondents than for male respondents (3.40/5 (SD 0.49) vs 3.30/5 (SD 0.48), p=0.003). Overall, emergency physicians favoured rational decision making rather than experiential decision making; however, female emergency physicians had higher experiential scores than male emergency physicians. This has important implications for future knowledge translation and decision support efforts among emergency physicians.

How parents whose children have been conceived with donor gametes make their disclosure decision: contexts, influences, and couple dynamics.

PubMed

Shehab, Dena; Duff, Julia; Pasch, Lauri A; Mac Dougall, Kirstin; Scheib, Joanna E; Nachtigall, Robert D

2008-01-01

To describe parents' disclosure decision-making process. In-depth ethnographic interviews. Participants were recruited from 11 medical infertility practices and 1 sperm bank in Northern California. One hundred forty-one married couples who had conceived a child using donor gametes (62 with donor sperm, 79 with donor oocytes). Husbands and wives were interviewed together and separately. Thematic analysis of interview transcripts. Ninety-five percent of couples came to a united disclosure decision, some "intuitively," but most after discussions influenced by the couples' local sociopolitical environment, professional opinion, counseling, religious and cultural background, family relationships, and individual personal, psychological, and ethical beliefs. Couples who were not initially in agreement ultimately came to a decision after one partner deferred to the wishes or opinions of the other. Deferral could reflect the result of a prior agreement, one partner's recognition of the other's experiential or emotional expertise, or direct persuasion. In disclosing couples, men frequently deferred to their wives, whereas, in nondisclosing couples, women always deferred to their husbands. Although the majority of couples were in initial agreement about disclosure, for many the disclosure decision was a complex, negotiated process reflecting a wide range of influences and contexts.

Practice guidelines in the context of primary care, learning and usability in the physicians' decision-making process--a qualitative study.

PubMed

Ingemansson, Maria; Bastholm-Rahmner, Pia; Kiessling, Anna

2014-08-20

Decision-making is central for general practitioners (GP). Practice guidelines are important tools in this process but implementation of them in the complex context of primary care is a challenge. The purpose of this study was to explore how GPs approach, learn from and use practice guidelines in their day-to-day decision-making process in primary care. A qualitative approach using focus-group interviews was chosen in order to provide in-depth information. The participants were 22 GPs with a median of seven years of experience in primary care, representing seven primary healthcare centres in Stockholm, Sweden in 2011. The interviews focused on how the GPs use guidelines in their decision-making, factors that influence their decision how to approach these guidelines, and how they could encourage the learning process in routine practice.Data were analysed by qualitative content analysis. Meaning units were condensed and grouped in categories. After interpreting the content in the categories, themes were created. Three themes were conceptualized. The first theme emphasized to use guidelines by interactive contextualized dialogues. The categories underpinning this theme: 1. Feedback by peer-learning 2. Feedback by collaboration, mutual learning, and equality between specialties, identified important ways to achieve this learning dialogue. Confidence was central in the second theme, learning that establishes confidence to provide high quality care. Three aspects of confidence were identified in the categories of this theme: 1. Confidence by confirmation, 2. Confidence by reliability and 3. Confidence by evaluation of own results. In the third theme, learning by use of relevant evidence in the decision-making process, we identified two categories: 1. Design and lay-out visualizing the evidence 2. Accessibility adapted to the clinical decision-making process as prerequisites for using the practice guidelines. Decision-making in primary care is a dual process that involves use of intuitive and analytic thinking in a balanced way in order to provide high quality care. Key aspects of effective learning in this clinical decision-making process were: contextualized dialogue, which was based on the GPs' own experiences, feedback on own results and easy access to short guidelines perceived as trustworthy.

The Role of Intuition in the Decision-Making Processes of United States Air Force Field Grade Officers

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-12-01

to the fullest extent; it has then to become effective in concrete hallucination , since, it had no direct psychological access.... But with the...even though the ears are interfaced with the auditory cortex of both sides of the brain, the interface to the opposite side is much stronger. The...melodies, and recognition of faces has been demonstrated by female infants, but not male, as early as four months of age. Because female infants hear better

Recurrent fuzzy ranking methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajjari, Tayebeh

2012-11-01

With the increasing development of fuzzy set theory in various scientific fields and the need to compare fuzzy numbers in different areas. Therefore, Ranking of fuzzy numbers plays a very important role in linguistic decision-making, engineering, business and some other fuzzy application systems. Several strategies have been proposed for ranking of fuzzy numbers. Each of these techniques has been shown to produce non-intuitive results in certain case. In this paper, we reviewed some recent ranking methods, which will be useful for the researchers who are interested in this area.

The Role of Leadership in Self-Synchronized Operations - Implications for the U.S. Military

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-02-09

ability to tolerate the risk associated with self- synchronized operations. 18 BIBLIOGRAPHY Agor , Weston H . The Logic of Intuitive Decision-Making: A...Interavia 57:661 (March 2002), p. 19-21. Cordesman, Anthony H . The Lessons and Non-Lessons of the Air and Missile Campaign in Kosovo. Westport, CT...Ivo H . and Michael E. O’Hanlon. Winning Ugly: NATO’s war to save Kosovo. Washington, DD: The Brookings Institution, 2000. Dahl, Erik J. “Network

Influencing physician prescribing.

PubMed

Segal, R; Wang, F

1999-10-01

The drug use process suffers from problems related to quality and cost that have not responded well to administrative or educational interventions. In many cases, attempts to improve the quality of physician prescribing have been clumsy, often based on intuition. This article begins by describing the drug use process and the role of prescribing in that process. In the following section, we describe what is known about how physicians make drug choice decisions. The paper concludes with suggestions, based on evidence, about the design of strategies for influencing prescribing.

Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision‐making

PubMed Central

Elqayam, Shira

2017-01-01

Abstract Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people “should” or “ought to” make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision‐making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence‐based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision‐making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret‐based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta‐rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is “rational” behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context‐poor situations, such as policy decision‐making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision‐making, whereas in the context‐rich circumstances other types of rationality, informed by human cognitive architecture and driven by intuition and emotions such as the aim to minimize regret, may provide better solution to the problem at hand. The choice of theory under which we operate is important as it determines both policy and our individual decision‐making. PMID:28730671

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael; Ben-Haim, Yakov

2015-10-01

Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable-choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Unconscious influences on decision making: a critical review.

PubMed

Newell, Ben R; Shanks, David R

2014-02-01

To what extent do we know our own minds when making decisions? Variants of this question have preoccupied researchers in a wide range of domains, from mainstream experimental psychology (cognition, perception, social behavior) to cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics. A pervasive view places a heavy explanatory burden on an intelligent cognitive unconscious, with many theories assigning causally effective roles to unconscious influences. This article presents a novel framework for evaluating these claims and reviews evidence from three major bodies of research in which unconscious factors have been studied: multiple-cue judgment, deliberation without attention, and decisions under uncertainty. Studies of priming (subliminal and primes-to-behavior) and the role of awareness in movement and perception (e.g., timing of willed actions, blindsight) are also given brief consideration. The review highlights that inadequate procedures for assessing awareness, failures to consider artifactual explanations of "landmark" results, and a tendency to uncritically accept conclusions that fit with our intuitions have all contributed to unconscious influences being ascribed inflated and erroneous explanatory power in theories of decision making. The review concludes by recommending that future research should focus on tasks in which participants' attention is diverted away from the experimenter's hypothesis, rather than the highly reflective tasks that are currently often employed.

Bloodstain pattern classification: Accuracy, effect of contextual information and the role of analyst characteristics.

PubMed

Osborne, Nikola K P; Taylor, Michael C; Healey, Matthew; Zajac, Rachel

2016-03-01

It is becoming increasingly apparent that contextual information can exert a considerable influence on decisions about forensic evidence. Here, we explored accuracy and contextual influence in bloodstain pattern classification, and how these variables might relate to analyst characteristics. Thirty-nine bloodstain pattern analysts with varying degrees of experience each completed measures of compliance, decision-making style, and need for closure. Analysts then examined a bloodstain pattern without any additional contextual information, and allocated votes to listed pattern types according to favoured and less favoured classifications. Next, if they believed it would assist with their classification, analysts could request items of contextual information - from commonly encountered sources of information in bloodstain pattern analysis - and update their vote allocation. We calculated a shift score for each item of contextual information based on vote reallocation. Almost all forms of contextual information influenced decision-making, with medical findings leading to the highest shift scores. Although there was a small positive association between shift scores and the degree to which analysts displayed an intuitive decision-making style, shift scores did not vary meaningfully as a function of experience or the other characteristics measured. Almost all of the erroneous classifications were made by novice analysts. Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Clinical reasoning in nursing, concept analysis].

PubMed

Côté, Sarah; St-Cyr Tribble, Denise

2012-12-01

Nurses work in situations of complex care requiring great clinical reasoning abilities. In literature, clinical reasoning is often confused with other concepts and it has no consensual definition. To conduct a concept analysis of a nurse's clinical reasoning in order to clarify, define and distinguish it from the other concepts as well as to better understand clinical reasoning. Rodgers's method of concept analysis was used, after literature was retrieved with the use of clinical reasoning, concept analysis, nurse, intensive care and decision making as key-words. The use of cognition, cognitive strategies, a systematic approach of analysis and data interpretation, generating hypothesis and alternatives are attributes of clinical reasoning. The antecedents are experience, knowledge, memory, cues, intuition and data collection. The consequences are decision making, action, clues and problem resolution. This concept analysis helped to define clinical reasoning, to distinguish it from other concepts used synonymously and to guide future research.

An analysis of clinical reasoning through a recent and comprehensive approach: the dual-process theory.

PubMed

Pelaccia, Thierry; Tardif, Jacques; Triby, Emmanuel; Charlin, Bernard

2011-03-14

Clinical reasoning plays a major role in the ability of doctors to make diagnoses and decisions. It is considered as the physician's most critical competence, and has been widely studied by physicians, educationalists, psychologists and sociologists. Since the 1970s, many theories about clinical reasoning in medicine have been put forward. This paper aims at exploring a comprehensive approach: the "dual-process theory", a model developed by cognitive psychologists over the last few years. After 40 years of sometimes contradictory studies on clinical reasoning, the dual-process theory gives us many answers on how doctors think while making diagnoses and decisions. It highlights the importance of physicians' intuition and the high level of interaction between analytical and non-analytical processes. However, it has not received much attention in the medical education literature. The implications of dual-process models of reasoning in terms of medical education will be discussed.

WeightLifter: Visual Weight Space Exploration for Multi-Criteria Decision Making.

PubMed

Pajer, Stephan; Streit, Marc; Torsney-Weir, Thomas; Spechtenhauser, Florian; Muller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2017-01-01

A common strategy in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is to rank alternative solutions by weighted summary scores. Weights, however, are often abstract to the decision maker and can only be set by vague intuition. While previous work supports a point-wise exploration of weight spaces, we argue that MCDM can benefit from a regional and global visual analysis of weight spaces. Our main contribution is WeightLifter, a novel interactive visualization technique for weight-based MCDM that facilitates the exploration of weight spaces with up to ten criteria. Our technique enables users to better understand the sensitivity of a decision to changes of weights, to efficiently localize weight regions where a given solution ranks high, and to filter out solutions which do not rank high enough for any plausible combination of weights. We provide a comprehensive requirement analysis for weight-based MCDM and describe an interactive workflow that meets these requirements. For evaluation, we describe a usage scenario of WeightLifter in automotive engineering and report qualitative feedback from users of a deployed version as well as preliminary feedback from decision makers in multiple domains. This feedback confirms that WeightLifter increases both the efficiency of weight-based MCDM and the awareness of uncertainty in the ultimate decisions.

Ask the pendulum: personality predictors of ideomotor performance.

PubMed

Olson, Jay A; Jeyanesan, Ewalina; Raz, Amir

2017-01-01

For centuries, people have asked questions to hand-held pendulums and interpreted their movements as responses from the divine. These movements occur due to the ideomotor effect, wherein priming or thinking of a motion causes muscle movements that end up swinging the pendulum. By associating particular swinging movements with "yes" and "no" responses, we investigated whether pendulums can aid decision-making and which personality traits correlate with this performance. Participants ( N = 80 ) completed a visual detection task in which they searched for a target letter among rapidly presented characters. In the verbal condition, participants stated whether they saw the target in each trial. In the pendulum condition, participants instead mentally "asked" a hand-held pendulum whether the target was present; particular motions signified "yes" and "no". We measured the accuracy of their responses as well as their sensitivity and bias using signal detection theory. We also assessed four personality measures: locus of control (feelings of control over one's life), transliminality (sensitivity to subtle stimuli), need for cognition (preference for analytical thinking), and faith in intuition (preference for intuitive thinking). Overall, locus of control predicted verbal performance and transliminality predicted pendulum performance. Accuracy was low in both conditions (verbal: 57%, pendulum: 53%), but bias was higher in the verbal condition ( d = 1.10 ). We confirmed this bias difference in a second study ( d = 0.47 , N = 40 ). Our results suggest that people have different decision strategies when using a pendulum compared to conscious guessing. These findings may help explain why some people can answer questions more accurately with pendulums and Ouija boards. More broadly, identifying the differences between ideomotor and verbal responses could lead to practical ways to improve decision-making.

Ask the pendulum: personality predictors of ideomotor performance

PubMed Central

Olson, Jay A; Jeyanesan, Ewalina; Raz, Amir

2017-01-01

Abstract For centuries, people have asked questions to hand-held pendulums and interpreted their movements as responses from the divine. These movements occur due to the ideomotor effect, wherein priming or thinking of a motion causes muscle movements that end up swinging the pendulum. By associating particular swinging movements with “yes” and “no” responses, we investigated whether pendulums can aid decision-making and which personality traits correlate with this performance. Participants (N=80) completed a visual detection task in which they searched for a target letter among rapidly presented characters. In the verbal condition, participants stated whether they saw the target in each trial. In the pendulum condition, participants instead mentally “asked” a hand-held pendulum whether the target was present; particular motions signified “yes” and “no”. We measured the accuracy of their responses as well as their sensitivity and bias using signal detection theory. We also assessed four personality measures: locus of control (feelings of control over one’s life), transliminality (sensitivity to subtle stimuli), need for cognition (preference for analytical thinking), and faith in intuition (preference for intuitive thinking). Overall, locus of control predicted verbal performance and transliminality predicted pendulum performance. Accuracy was low in both conditions (verbal: 57%, pendulum: 53%), but bias was higher in the verbal condition (d=1.10). We confirmed this bias difference in a second study (d=0.47, N=40). Our results suggest that people have different decision strategies when using a pendulum compared to conscious guessing. These findings may help explain why some people can answer questions more accurately with pendulums and Ouija boards. More broadly, identifying the differences between ideomotor and verbal responses could lead to practical ways to improve decision-making. PMID:29877514

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Teeguarden, Justin. G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Anderson, Kim A.; Corley, Richard A.; Harding, Anna K; Kile, Molly L.; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L.; Waters, Katrina M.; Harper, Stacey L.; Williams, David E.

2016-01-01

Synopsis Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computational tools, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more efficient integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two pathways form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making. PMID:26759916

Empowering occupational therapists to become evidence-based work rehabilitation practitioners.

PubMed

Vachon, Brigitte; Durand, Marie-José; LeBlanc, Jeannette

2010-01-01

Occupational therapists (OTs) engage in continuing education to integrate best available knowledge and skills into their practice. However, many barriers influence the degree to which they are currently able to integrate research evidence into their clinical decision making process. The specific objectives were to explore the clinical decision-making processes they used, and to describe the empowerment process they developed to become evidence-based practitioners. Eight OTs, who had attended a four-day workshop on evidence-based work rehabilitation, were recruited to participate to a reflective practice group. A collaborative research methodology was used. The group was convened for 12 meetings and held during a 15-month period. The data collected was analyzed using the grounded theory method. The results revealed the different decision-making modes used by OTs: defensive, repressed, cautious, autonomous intuitive and autonomous thoughtful. These modes influenced utilization of evidence and determined the stances taken toward practice change. Reflective learning facilitated their utilization of an evidence-based practice model through a three-level empowerment process: deliberateness, client-centeredness and system mindedness. During the course of this study, participants learned to become evidence-based practitioners. This process had an impact on how they viewed their clients, their practice and the work rehabilitation system.

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE PAGES

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; ...

2016-01-13

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Does everyone have a price? On the role of payoff magnitude for ethical decision making.

PubMed

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Thielmann, Isabel

2017-06-01

Most approaches to dishonest behavior emphasize the importance of corresponding payoffs, typically implying that dishonesty might increase with increasing incentives. However, prior evidence does not appear to confirm this intuition. However, extant findings are based on relatively small payoffs, the potential effects of which are solely analyzed across participants. In two experiments, we used different multi-trial die-rolling paradigms designed to investigate dishonesty at the individual level (i.e., within participants) and as a function of the payoffs at stake - implementing substantial incentives exceeding 100€. Results show that incentive sizes indeed matter for ethical decision making, though primarily for two subsets of "corruptible individuals" (who cheat more the more they are offered) and "small sinners" (who tend to cheat less as the potential payoffs increase). Others ("brazen liars") are willing to cheat for practically any non-zero incentive whereas still others ("honest individuals") do not cheat at all, even for large payoffs. By implication, the influence of payoff magnitude on ethical decision making is often obscured when analyzed across participants and with insufficiently tempting payoffs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics

PubMed Central

Allen, Peter J.; Dorozenko, Kate P.; Roberts, Lynne D.

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these “experts” were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an “answer.” Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities. PMID:26909064

Dual processing model of medical decision-making

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Dual processing theory of human cognition postulates that reasoning and decision-making can be described as a function of both an intuitive, experiential, affective system (system I) and/or an analytical, deliberative (system II) processing system. To date no formal descriptive model of medical decision-making based on dual processing theory has been developed. Here we postulate such a model and apply it to a common clinical situation: whether treatment should be administered to the patient who may or may not have a disease. Methods We developed a mathematical model in which we linked a recently proposed descriptive psychological model of cognition with the threshold model of medical decision-making and show how this approach can be used to better understand decision-making at the bedside and explain the widespread variation in treatments observed in clinical practice. Results We show that physician’s beliefs about whether to treat at higher (lower) probability levels compared to the prescriptive therapeutic thresholds obtained via system II processing is moderated by system I and the ratio of benefit and harms as evaluated by both system I and II. Under some conditions, the system I decision maker’s threshold may dramatically drop below the expected utility threshold derived by system II. This can explain the overtreatment often seen in the contemporary practice. The opposite can also occur as in the situations where empirical evidence is considered unreliable, or when cognitive processes of decision-makers are biased through recent experience: the threshold will increase relative to the normative threshold value derived via system II using expected utility threshold. This inclination for the higher diagnostic certainty may, in turn, explain undertreatment that is also documented in the current medical practice. Conclusions We have developed the first dual processing model of medical decision-making that has potential to enrich the current medical decision-making field, which is still to the large extent dominated by expected utility theory. The model also provides a platform for reconciling two groups of competing dual processing theories (parallel competitive with default-interventionalist theories). PMID:22943520

Difficult Decisions: A Qualitative Exploration of the Statistical Decision Making Process from the Perspectives of Psychology Students and Academics.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Dorozenko, Kate P; Roberts, Lynne D

2016-01-01

Quantitative research methods are essential to the development of professional competence in psychology. They are also an area of weakness for many students. In particular, students are known to struggle with the skill of selecting quantitative analytical strategies appropriate for common research questions, hypotheses and data types. To begin understanding this apparent deficit, we presented nine psychology undergraduates (who had all completed at least one quantitative methods course) with brief research vignettes, and asked them to explicate the process they would follow to identify an appropriate statistical technique for each. Thematic analysis revealed that all participants found this task challenging, and even those who had completed several research methods courses struggled to articulate how they would approach the vignettes on more than a very superficial and intuitive level. While some students recognized that there is a systematic decision making process that can be followed, none could describe it clearly or completely. We then presented the same vignettes to 10 psychology academics with particular expertise in conducting research and/or research methods instruction. Predictably, these "experts" were able to describe a far more systematic, comprehensive, flexible, and nuanced approach to statistical decision making, which begins early in the research process, and pays consideration to multiple contextual factors. They were sensitive to the challenges that students experience when making statistical decisions, which they attributed partially to how research methods and statistics are commonly taught. This sensitivity was reflected in their pedagogic practices. When asked to consider the format and features of an aid that could facilitate the statistical decision making process, both groups expressed a preference for an accessible, comprehensive and reputable resource that follows a basic decision tree logic. For the academics in particular, this aid should function as a teaching tool, which engages the user with each choice-point in the decision making process, rather than simply providing an "answer." Based on these findings, we offer suggestions for tools and strategies that could be deployed in the research methods classroom to facilitate and strengthen students' statistical decision making abilities.

[The role of information in public health decision-making].

PubMed

Cecchi, Catherine

2008-01-01

Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and environmental issues; of lobbies and their power; and of social maturation. Decision-making is a necessity. Making the right choice at the right time requires high quality information, and it is often necessary to respect a certain amount of time for reflection and ripening of an issue in order to make the best possible decision. The media and consumers play an increasingly significant role in public health decision-making and in the ensuing legislative consequences and debates which come as a result. Access to information is changing, especially thanks to the Internet which is completely modifying the global scenery of knowledge and know-how. Information supports decision-making with calculated risk, and it offers the opportunity to make choices and decisions, recognising that "to choose, is sometimes to relinquish".

Response time in economic games reflects different types of decision conflict for prosocial and proself individuals

PubMed Central

Matsumoto, Yoshie; Kiyonari, Toko; Takagishi, Haruto; Li, Yang; Kanai, Ryota; Sakagami, Masamichi

2017-01-01

Behavioral and neuroscientific studies explore two pathways through which internalized social norms promote prosocial behavior. One pathway involves internal control of impulsive selfishness, and the other involves emotion-based prosocial preferences that are translated into behavior when they evade cognitive control for pursuing self-interest. We measured 443 participants’ overall prosocial behavior in four economic games. Participants’ predispositions [social value orientation (SVO)] were more strongly reflected in their overall game behavior when they made decisions quickly than when they spent a longer time. Prosocially (or selfishly) predisposed participants behaved less prosocially (or less selfishly) when they spent more time in decision making, such that their SVO prosociality yielded limited effects in actual behavior in their slow decisions. The increase (or decrease) in slower decision makers was prominent among consistent prosocials (or proselfs) whose strong preference for prosocial (or proself) goals would make it less likely to experience conflict between prosocial and proself goals. The strong effect of RT on behavior in consistent prosocials (or proselfs) suggests that conflict between prosocial and selfish goals alone is not responsible for slow decisions. Specifically, we found that contemplation of the risk of being exploited by others (social risk aversion) was partly responsible for making consistent prosocials (but not consistent proselfs) spend longer time in decision making and behave less prosocially. Conflict between means rather than between goals (immediate versus strategic pursuit of self-interest) was suggested to be responsible for the time-related increase in consistent proselfs’ prosocial behavior. The findings of this study are generally in favor of the intuitive cooperation model of prosocial behavior. PMID:28559334

Fight fire with fire: the effect of perceived anger on punitive intuitions.

PubMed

Côté-Lussier, Carolyn

2013-12-01

The human ability to "mind-read" is fundamental in social interaction (e.g., contributing to the experience of empathy). The present research tests the hypothesis that perceiving anger in others on the basis of facial cues is sufficient to elicit very rapid punitive responses toward crime. The results suggest that individuals are faster to harshly punish criminals who appear to be angry, and that this effect emerges early in the decision-making process. Black criminals receive quicker punitive responses, but the effect of ethnicity is weakened at high levels of perceived anger. The results are discussed in terms of associative processes linking anger to punishment, the human ability to simulate and experience others' emotional responses, and the role of anger in eliciting hostile aggression. The findings also have important policy implications, as they suggest that drumming up anger toward crime could engender punitive intuitions.

Aspects of First Year Statistics Students' Reasoning When Performing Intuitive Analysis of Variance: Effects of Within- and Between-Group Variability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trumpower, David L.

2015-01-01

Making inferences about population differences based on samples of data, that is, performing intuitive analysis of variance (IANOVA), is common in everyday life. However, the intuitive reasoning of individuals when making such inferences (even following statistics instruction), often differs from the normative logic of formal statistics. The…

The role of the insula in intuitive expert bug detection in computer code: an fMRI study.

PubMed

Castelhano, Joao; Duarte, Isabel C; Ferreira, Carlos; Duraes, Joao; Madeira, Henrique; Castelo-Branco, Miguel

2018-05-09

Software programming is a complex and relatively recent human activity, involving the integration of mathematical, recursive thinking and language processing. The neural correlates of this recent human activity are still poorly understood. Error monitoring during this type of task, requiring the integration of language, logical symbol manipulation and other mathematical skills, is particularly challenging. We therefore aimed to investigate the neural correlates of decision-making during source code understanding and mental manipulation in professional participants with high expertise. The present fMRI study directly addressed error monitoring during source code comprehension, expert bug detection and decision-making. We used C code, which triggers the same sort of processing irrespective of the native language of the programmer. We discovered a distinct role for the insula in bug monitoring and detection and a novel connectivity pattern that goes beyond the expected activation pattern evoked by source code understanding in semantic language and mathematical processing regions. Importantly, insula activity levels were critically related to the quality of error detection, involving intuition, as signalled by reported initial bug suspicion, prior to final decision and bug detection. Activity in this salience network (SN) region evoked by bug suspicion was predictive of bug detection precision, suggesting that it encodes the quality of the behavioral evidence. Connectivity analysis provided evidence for top-down circuit "reutilization" stemming from anterior cingulate cortex (BA32), a core region in the SN that evolved for complex error monitoring such as required for this type of recent human activity. Cingulate (BA32) and anterolateral (BA10) frontal regions causally modulated decision processes in the insula, which in turn was related to activity of math processing regions in early parietal cortex. In other words, earlier brain regions used during evolution for other functions seem to be reutilized in a top-down manner for a new complex function, in an analogous manner as described for other cultural creations such as reading and literacy.

Intuition, deliberation, and the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Bear, Adam; Rand, David G.

2016-01-01

Humans often cooperate with strangers, despite the costs involved. A long tradition of theoretical modeling has sought ultimate evolutionary explanations for this seemingly altruistic behavior. More recently, an entirely separate body of experimental work has begun to investigate cooperation’s proximate cognitive underpinnings using a dual-process framework: Is deliberative self-control necessary to reign in selfish impulses, or does self-interested deliberation restrain an intuitive desire to cooperate? Integrating these ultimate and proximate approaches, we introduce dual-process cognition into a formal game-theoretic model of the evolution of cooperation. Agents play prisoner’s dilemma games, some of which are one-shot and others of which involve reciprocity. They can either respond by using a generalized intuition, which is not sensitive to whether the game is one-shot or reciprocal, or pay a (stochastically varying) cost to deliberate and tailor their strategy to the type of game they are facing. We find that, depending on the level of reciprocity and assortment, selection favors one of two strategies: intuitive defectors who never deliberate, or dual-process agents who intuitively cooperate but sometimes use deliberation to defect in one-shot games. Critically, selection never favors agents who use deliberation to override selfish impulses: Deliberation only serves to undermine cooperation with strangers. Thus, by introducing a formal theoretical framework for exploring cooperation through a dual-process lens, we provide a clear answer regarding the role of deliberation in cooperation based on evolutionary modeling, help to organize a growing body of sometimes-conflicting empirical results, and shed light on the nature of human cognition and social decision making. PMID:26755603

Intuition, deliberation, and the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Bear, Adam; Rand, David G

2016-01-26

Humans often cooperate with strangers, despite the costs involved. A long tradition of theoretical modeling has sought ultimate evolutionary explanations for this seemingly altruistic behavior. More recently, an entirely separate body of experimental work has begun to investigate cooperation's proximate cognitive underpinnings using a dual-process framework: Is deliberative self-control necessary to reign in selfish impulses, or does self-interested deliberation restrain an intuitive desire to cooperate? Integrating these ultimate and proximate approaches, we introduce dual-process cognition into a formal game-theoretic model of the evolution of cooperation. Agents play prisoner's dilemma games, some of which are one-shot and others of which involve reciprocity. They can either respond by using a generalized intuition, which is not sensitive to whether the game is one-shot or reciprocal, or pay a (stochastically varying) cost to deliberate and tailor their strategy to the type of game they are facing. We find that, depending on the level of reciprocity and assortment, selection favors one of two strategies: intuitive defectors who never deliberate, or dual-process agents who intuitively cooperate but sometimes use deliberation to defect in one-shot games. Critically, selection never favors agents who use deliberation to override selfish impulses: Deliberation only serves to undermine cooperation with strangers. Thus, by introducing a formal theoretical framework for exploring cooperation through a dual-process lens, we provide a clear answer regarding the role of deliberation in cooperation based on evolutionary modeling, help to organize a growing body of sometimes-conflicting empirical results, and shed light on the nature of human cognition and social decision making.

Brief Report. Educated Adults Are Still Affected by Intuitions about the Effect of Arithmetical Operations: Evidence from a Reaction-Time Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vamvakoussi, Xenia; Van Dooren, Wim; Verschaffel, Lieven

2013-01-01

This study tested the hypothesis that intuitions about the effect of operations, e.g., "addition makes bigger" and "division makes smaller", are still present in educated adults, even after years of instruction. To establish the intuitive character, we applied a reaction time methodology, grounded in dual process theories of reasoning. Educated…

The role of clinician emotion in clinical reasoning: Balancing the analytical process.

PubMed

Langridge, Neil; Roberts, Lisa; Pope, Catherine

2016-02-01

This review paper identifies and describes the role of clinicians' memory, emotions and physical responses in clinical reasoning processes. Clinical reasoning is complex and multi-factorial and key models of clinical reasoning within musculoskeletal physiotherapy are discussed, highlighting the omission of emotion and subsequent physical responses and how these can impact upon a clinician when making a decision. It is proposed that clinicians should consider the emotions associated with decision-making, especially when there is concern surrounding a presentation. Reflecting on practice in the clinical environment and subsequently applying this to a patient presentation should involve some acknowledgement of clinicians' physical responses, emotions and how they may play a part in any decision made. Presenting intuition and gut-feeling as separate reasoning methods and how these processes co-exist with other more accepted reasoning such as hypothetico-deductive is also discussed. Musculoskeletal physiotherapy should consider the elements of feelings, emotions and physical responses when applying reflective practice principles. Furthermore, clinicians dealing with difficult and challenging presentations should look at the emotional as well as the analytical experience when justifying decisions and learning from practice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Significance testing - are we ready yet to abandon its use?

PubMed

The, Bertram

2011-11-01

Understanding of the damaging effects of significance testing has steadily grown. Reporting p values without dichotomizing the result to be significant or not, is not the solution. Confidence intervals are better, but are troubled by a non-intuitive interpretation, and are often misused just to see whether the null value lies within the interval. Bayesian statistics provide an alternative which solves most of these problems. Although criticized for relying on subjective models, the interpretation of a Bayesian posterior probability is more intuitive than the interpretation of a p value, and seems to be closest to intuitive patterns of human decision making. Another alternative could be using confidence interval functions (or p value functions) to display a continuum of intervals at different levels of confidence around a point estimate. Thus, better alternatives to significance testing exist. The reluctance to abandon this practice might be both preference of clinging to old habits as well as the unfamiliarity with better methods. Authors might question if using less commonly exercised, though superior, techniques will be well received by the editors, reviewers and the readership. A joint effort will be needed to abandon significance testing in clinical research in the future.

Decision making under uncertainty: a quasimetric approach.

PubMed

N'Guyen, Steve; Moulin-Frier, Clément; Droulez, Jacques

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach for solving a class of discrete decision making problems under uncertainty with positive cost. This issue concerns multiple and diverse fields such as engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, cognitive science and many others. Basically, an agent has to choose a single or series of actions from a set of options, without knowing for sure their consequences. Schematically, two main approaches have been followed: either the agent learns which option is the correct one to choose in a given situation by trial and error, or the agent already has some knowledge on the possible consequences of his decisions; this knowledge being generally expressed as a conditional probability distribution. In the latter case, several optimal or suboptimal methods have been proposed to exploit this uncertain knowledge in various contexts. In this work, we propose following a different approach, based on the geometric intuition of distance. More precisely, we define a goal independent quasimetric structure on the state space, taking into account both cost function and transition probability. We then compare precision and computation time with classical approaches.

The morality of socioscientific issues: Construal and resolution of genetic engineering dilemmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, Troy D.; Zeidler, Dana L.

2004-01-01

The ability to negotiate and resolve socioscientific issues has been posited as integral components of scientific literacy. Although philosophers and science educators have argued that socioscientific issues inherently involve moral and ethical considerations, the ultimate arbiters of morality are individual decision-makers. This study explored the extent to which college students construe genetic engineering issues as moral problems. Twenty college students participated in interviews designed to elicit their ideas, reactions, and feelings regarding a series of gene therapy and cloning scenarios. Qualitative analyses revealed that moral considerations were significant influences on decision-making, indicating a tendency for students to construe genetic engineering issues as moral problems. Students engaged in moral reasoning based on utilitarian analyses of consequences as well as the application of principles. Issue construal was also influenced by affective features such as emotion and intuition. In addition to moral considerations, a series of other factors emerged as important dimensions of socioscientific decision-making. These factors included personal experiences, family biases, background knowledge, and the impact of popular culture. The implications for classroom science instruction and future research are discussed.

The Cyber Defense (CyDef) Model for Assessing Countermeasure Capabilities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, Margot; DeVries, Troy Robert; Gordon, Susanna P.

Cybersecurity is essential to maintaining operations, and is now a de facto cost of business. Despite this, there is little consensus on how to systematically make decisions about cyber countermeasures investments. Identifying gaps and determining the expected return on investment (ROI) of adding a new cybersecurity countermeasure is frequently a hand-waving exercise at best. Worse, cybersecurity nomenclature is murky and frequently over-loaded, which further complicates issues by inhibiting clear communication. This paper presents a series of foundational models and nomenclature for discussing cybersecurity countermeasures, and then introduces the Cyber Defense (CyDef) model, which provides a systematic and intuitive way formore » decision-makers to effectively communicate with operations and device experts.« less

Active and passive spatial learning in human navigation: acquisition of survey knowledge.

PubMed

Chrastil, Elizabeth R; Warren, William H

2013-09-01

It seems intuitively obvious that active exploration of a new environment would lead to better spatial learning than would passive visual exposure. It is unclear, however, which components of active learning contribute to spatial knowledge, and previous literature is decidedly mixed. This experiment tests the contributions of 4 components to metric survey knowledge: visual, vestibular, and podokinetic information and cognitive decision making. In the learning phase, 6 groups of participants learned the locations of 8 objects in a virtual hedge maze by (a) walking, (b) being pushed in a wheelchair, or (c) watching a video, crossed with (1) making decisions about their path or (2) being guided through the maze. In the test phase, survey knowledge was assessed by having participants walk a novel shortcut from a starting object to the remembered location of a test object, with the maze removed. Performance was slightly better than chance in the passive video condition. The addition of vestibular information did not improve performance in the wheelchair condition, but the addition of podokinetic information significantly improved angular accuracy in the walking condition. In contrast, there was no effect of decision making in any condition. The results indicate that visual and podokinetic information significantly contribute to survey knowledge, whereas vestibular information and decision making do not. We conclude that podokinetic information is the primary component of active learning for the acquisition of metric survey knowledge. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

How Entrustment Is Informed by Holistic Judgments Across Time in a Family Medicine Residency Program: An Ethnographic Nonparticipant Observational Study.

PubMed

Sagasser, Margaretha H; Fluit, Cornelia R M G; van Weel, Chris; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Kramer, Anneke W M

2017-06-01

Entrustment has mainly been conceptualized as delegating discrete professional tasks. Because residents provide most of their patient care independently, not all resident performance is visible to supervisors; the entrustment process involves more than granting discrete tasks. This study explored how supervisors made entrustment decisions based on residents' performance in a long-term family medicine training program. A qualitative nonparticipant observational study was conducted in 2014-2015 at competency-based family medicine residency programs in the Netherlands. Seven supervisor-resident pairs participated. During two days, one researcher observed first-year residents' patient encounters, debriefing sessions, and supervisor-resident educational meetings and interviewed them separately afterwards. Data were collected and analyzed using iterative, phenomenological inductive research methodology. The entrustment process developed over three phases. Supervisors based their initial entrustment on prior knowledge about the resident. In the ensuing two weeks, entrustment decisions regarding independent patient care were derived from residents' observed general competencies necessary for a range of health problems (clinical reasoning, decision making, relating to patients); medical knowledge and skills; and supervisors' intuition. Supervisors provided supervision during and after encounters. Once residents performed independently, supervisors kept reevaluating their decisions, informed by residents' overall growth in competencies rather than by adhering to a predefined set of tasks. Supervisors in family medicine residency training took a holistic approach to trust, based on general competencies, knowledge, skills, and intuition. Entrustment started before training and developed over time. Building trust is a mutual process between supervisor and resident, requiring a good working relationship.

Imagination, Intuition, and Computing in School Algebra.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieren, Thomas E.; Olson, Alton T.

1989-01-01

Two incidents involving novice teachers with classes in grades 7 and 10 are presented. Then considered are the nature of intuitive mathematics and contributions computers can make to such intuitive mathematics, particularly in Algebra. (MNS)

Friction and the Intuition-Outcome Disparity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalajian, Peter; Makarova, Maria

2014-01-01

Humans have evolved to follow their intuition, but as any high school physics teacher knows, relying on intuition often leads students to predict outcomes that are at odds with evidence. Over the years, we have attempted to make this intuition-outcome disparity a central theme running throughout our physics classes, with limited success. Part of…

Parental views on withdrawing life-sustaining therapies in critically ill children.

PubMed

Michelson, Kelly Nicole; Koogler, Tracy; Sullivan, Christine; Ortega, María del Pilar; Hall, Emily; Frader, Joel

2009-11-01

To broaden existing knowledge of pediatric end-of-life decision making by exploring factors described by parents of patients in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) as important/influential if they were to consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of semi-structured one-on-one interviews. The PICUs at 2 tertiary care hospitals. English- or Spanish-speaking parents who were older than 17 years and whose child was admitted to the PICU for more than 24 hours to up to 1 week. Semi-structured one-on-one interviews. Forty of 70 parents (57%) interviewed said they could imagine a situation in which they would consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies. When asked if specific factors might influence their decision making, 64% of parents said they would consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies if their child were suffering; 51% would make such a decision based on quality-of-life considerations; 43% acknowledged the influence of physician-estimated prognosis in their decision; and 7% said financial burden would affect their consideration. Qualitative analysis of their subsequent comments identified 9 factors influential to parents when considering withdrawing life-sustaining therapies: quality of life, suffering, ineffective treatments, faith, time, financial considerations, general rejection of withdrawing life-sustaining therapies, mistrust/doubt toward physicians, and reliance on self/intuition. Parents describe a broad range of views regarding possible consideration of withdrawing life-sustaining therapies for their children and what factors might influence such a decision.

Parental Views on Withdrawing Life-Sustaining Therapies in Critically Ill Children

PubMed Central

Michelson, Kelly Nicole; Koogler, Tracy; Sullivan, Christine; del Pilar Ortega, María; Hall, Emily; Frader, Joel

2009-01-01

Objective To broaden existing knowledge of pediatric end-of-life decision making by exploring factors described by parents of patients in the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) as important/influential if they were to consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies. Design Quantitative and qualitative analysis of semi-structured one-on-one interviews. Setting The PICUs at 2 tertiary care hospitals. Participants English- or Spanish-speaking parents who were older than 17 years and whose child was admitted to the PICU for more than 24 hours to up to 1 week. Intervention Semi-structured one-on-one interviews. Results Forty of 70 parents (57%) interviewed said they could imagine a situation in which they would consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies. When asked if specific factors might influence their decision making, 64% of parents said they would consider withdrawing life-sustaining therapies if their child were suffering; 51% would make such a decision based on quality-of-life considerations; 43% acknowledged the influence of physician-estimated prognosis in their decision; and 7% said financial burden would affect their consideration. Qualitative analysis of their subsequent comments identified 9 factors influential to parents when considering withdrawing life-sustaining therapies: quality of life, suffering, ineffective treatments, faith, time, financial considerations, general rejection of withdrawing life-sustaining therapies, mistrust/doubt toward physicians, and reliance on self/intuition. Conclusion Parents describe a broad range of views regarding possible consideration of withdrawing life-sustaining therapies for their children and what factors might influence such a decision. PMID:19884588

[Dealing with diagnostic uncertainty in general practice].

PubMed

Wübken, Magdalena; Oswald, Jana; Schneider, Antonius

2013-01-01

In general, the prevalence of diseases is low in primary care. Therefore, the positive predictive value of diagnostic tests is lower than in hospitals where patients are highly selected. In addition, the patients present with milder forms of disease; and many diseases might hide behind the initial symptom(s). These facts lead to diagnostic uncertainty which is somewhat inherent to general practice. This narrative review discusses different sources of and reasons for uncertainty and strategies to deal with it in the context of the current literature. Fear of uncertainty correlates with higher diagnostic activities. The attitude towards uncertainty correlates with the choice of medical speciality by vocational trainees or medical students. An intolerance of uncertainty, which still increases as medicine is making steady progress, might partly explain the growing shortage of general practitioners. The bio-psycho-social context appears to be important to diagnostic decision-making. The effect of intuition and heuristics are investigated by cognitive psychologists. It is still unclear whether these aspects are prone to bias or useful, which might depend on the context of medical decisions. Good communication is of great importance to share uncertainty with the patients in a transparent way and to alleviate shared decision-making. Dealing with uncertainty should be seen as an important core component of general practice and needs to be investigated in more detail to improve the respective medical decisions. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Dairy cow culling strategies: making economical culling decisions.

PubMed

Lehenbauer, T W; Oltjen, J W

1998-01-01

The purpose of this report was to examine important economic elements of culling decisions, to review progress in development of culling decision support systems, and to discern some of the potentially rewarding areas for future research on culling models. Culling decisions have an important influence on the economic performance of the dairy but are often made in a nonprogrammed fashion and based partly on the intuition of the decision maker. The computer technology that is available for dairy herd management has made feasible the use of economic models to support culling decisions. Financial components--including profit, cash flow, and risk--are major economic factors affecting culling decisions. Culling strategies are further influenced by short-term fluctuations in cow numbers as well as by planned herd expansion. Changes in herd size affect the opportunity cost for postponed replacement and may alter the relevance of optimization strategies that assume a fixed herd size. Improvements in model components related to biological factors affecting future cow performance, including milk production, reproductive status, and mastitis, appear to offer the greatest economic potential for enhancing culling decision support systems. The ultimate value of any culling decision support system for developing economic culling strategies will be determined by its results under field conditions.

Unreliable gut feelings can lead to correct decisions: the somatic marker hypothesis in non-linear decision chains.

PubMed

Bedia, Manuel G; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2012-01-01

Dual-process approaches of decision-making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. From this perspective, decisions are supported by a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH), expresses these implicit processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers. In this view, somatic markers are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision-making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption can have consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, non-linear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision-making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that in non-lethal situations, primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcautiousness in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision-making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior, somatic markers would seem to be beneficial even at early stages when experiential attunement is poor. Although the model is formulated in terms of the SMH, the implications apply to dual systems theories in general since it makes minimal assumptions about the nature of the processes involved.

Unreliable Gut Feelings Can Lead to Correct Decisions: The Somatic Marker Hypothesis in Non-Linear Decision Chains

PubMed Central

Bedia, Manuel G.; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2012-01-01

Dual-process approaches of decision-making examine the interaction between affective/intuitive and deliberative processes underlying value judgment. From this perspective, decisions are supported by a combination of relatively explicit capabilities for abstract reasoning and relatively implicit evolved domain-general as well as learned domain-specific affective responses. One such approach, the somatic markers hypothesis (SMH), expresses these implicit processes as a system of evolved primary emotions supplemented by associations between affect and experience that accrue over lifetime, or somatic markers. In this view, somatic markers are useful only if their local capability to predict the value of an action is above a baseline equal to the predictive capability of the combined rational and primary emotional subsystems. We argue that decision-making has often been conceived of as a linear process: the effect of decision sequences is additive, local utility is cumulative, and there is no strong environmental feedback. This widespread assumption can have consequences for answering questions regarding the relative weight between the systems and their interaction within a cognitive architecture. We introduce a mathematical formalization of the SMH and study it in situations of dynamic, non-linear decision chains using a discrete-time stochastic model. We find, contrary to expectations, that decision-making events can interact non-additively with the environment in apparently paradoxical ways. We find that in non-lethal situations, primary emotions are represented globally over and above their local weight, showing a tendency for overcautiousness in situated decision chains. We also show that because they tend to counteract this trend, poorly attuned somatic markers that by themselves do not locally enhance decision-making, can still produce an overall positive effect. This result has developmental and evolutionary implications since, by promoting exploratory behavior, somatic markers would seem to be beneficial even at early stages when experiential attunement is poor. Although the model is formulated in terms of the SMH, the implications apply to dual systems theories in general since it makes minimal assumptions about the nature of the processes involved. PMID:23087655

Heuristic thinking makes a chemist smart.

PubMed

Graulich, Nicole; Hopf, Henning; Schreiner, Peter R

2010-05-01

We focus on the virtually neglected use of heuristic principles in understanding and teaching of organic chemistry. As human thinking is not comparable to computer systems employing factual knowledge and algorithms--people rarely make decisions through careful considerations of every possible event and its probability, risks or usefulness--research in science and teaching must include psychological aspects of the human decision making processes. Intuitive analogical and associative reasoning and the ability to categorize unexpected findings typically demonstrated by experienced chemists should be made accessible to young learners through heuristic concepts. The psychology of cognition defines heuristics as strategies that guide human problem-solving and deciding procedures, for example with patterns, analogies, or prototypes. Since research in the field of artificial intelligence and current studies in the psychology of cognition have provided evidence for the usefulness of heuristics in discovery, the status of heuristics has grown into something useful and teachable. In this tutorial review, we present a heuristic analysis of a familiar fundamental process in organic chemistry--the cyclic six-electron case, and we show that this approach leads to a more conceptual insight in understanding, as well as in teaching and learning.

Big data: the management revolution.

PubMed

McAfee, Andrew; Brynjolfsson, Erik

2012-10-01

Big data, the authors write, is far more powerful than the analytics of the past. Executives can measure and therefore manage more precisely than ever before. They can make better predictions and smarter decisions. They can target more-effective interventions in areas that so far have been dominated by gut and intuition rather than by data and rigor. The differences between big data and analytics are a matter of volume, velocity, and variety: More data now cross the internet every second than were stored in the entire internet 20 years ago. Nearly real-time information makes it possible for a company to be much more agile than its competitors. And that information can come from social networks, images, sensors, the web, or other unstructured sources. The managerial challenges, however, are very real. Senior decision makers have to learn to ask the right questions and embrace evidence-based decision making. Organizations must hire scientists who can find patterns in very large data sets and translate them into useful business information. IT departments have to work hard to integrate all the relevant internal and external sources of data. The authors offer two success stories to illustrate how companies are using big data: PASSUR Aerospace enables airlines to match their actual and estimated arrival times. Sears Holdings directly analyzes its incoming store data to make promotions much more precise and faster.

Using evidence-based algorithms to improve clinical decision making: the case of a first-time anterior shoulder dislocation.

PubMed

Federer, Andrew E; Taylor, Dean C; Mather, Richard C

2013-09-01

Decision making in health care has evolved substantially over the last century. Up until the late 1970s, medical decision making was predominantly intuitive and anecdotal. It was based on trial and error and involved high levels of problem solving. The 1980s gave way to empirical medicine, which was evidence based probabilistic, and involved pattern recognition and less problem solving. Although this represented a major advance in the quality of medical decision making, limitations existed. The advantages of the gold standard of the randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) are well-known and this technique is irreplaceable in its ability to answer critical clinical questions. However, the RCT does have drawbacks. RCTs are expensive and can only capture a snapshot in time. As treatments change and new technologies emerge, new expensive clinical trials must be undertaken to reevaluate them. Furthermore, in order to best evaluate a single intervention, other factors must be controlled. In addition, the study population may not match that of another organization or provider. Although evidence-based medicine has provided powerful data for clinicians, effectively and efficiently tailoring it to the individual has not yet evolved. We are now in a period of transition from this evidence-based era to one dominated by the personalization and customization of care. It will be fueled by policy decisions to shift financial responsibility to the patient, creating a powerful and sophisticated consumer, unlike any patient we have known before. The challenge will be to apply medical evidence and personal preferences to medical decisions and deliver it efficiently in the increasingly busy clinical setting. In this article, we provide a robust review of the concepts of customized care and some of techniques to deliver it. We will illustrate this through a personalized decision model for the treatment decision after a first-time anterior shoulder dislocation.

What does physicians' clinical expertise contribute to oncologic decision-making? A qualitative interview study.

PubMed

Salloch, Sabine; Otte, Ina; Reinacher-Schick, Anke; Vollmann, Jochen

2018-02-01

Physicians' clinical expertise forms an exclusive body of competences, which helps them to find the appropriate diagnostics and treatment for each individual patient. Empirical evidence, however, suggests that there is an inverse relationship between the number of years in practice and the quality of care provided by a physician. Knowledge and adherence to professional standards (such as clinical guidelines) are often used as indicators in previous research. Semistructured interviews and the Q method were used for an explorative study on oncologists' views on the interplay between their own clinical expertise, intuition, and the external evidence incorporated in clinical guidelines. The interviews were audio recorded, transcribed ad verbatim, and analysed using qualitative content analysis. Data analysis shows the complex character of clinical expertise with respect to experience, professional development, and intuition. An irreplaceable role is attributed to personal and bodily experience during the providing of care for a patient. Professional experience becomes important, particularly in those situations that lie out of the focus of "guideline medicine." Intuition is regarded as having a strong emotional component and helps for deciding which therapeutic option the patient can deal with. Using measurable knowledge and adherence to standards as indicators does not account for the complexity of clinical expertise. Other factors, such as the importance of bodily experience and physicians' intuitive knowledge, must be considered, also with respect to the occurrence of treatment biases. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The use of intuitive and analytic reasoning styles by patients with persecutory delusions.

PubMed

Freeman, Daniel; Lister, Rachel; Evans, Nicole

2014-12-01

A previous study has shown an association of paranoid thinking with a reliance on rapid intuitive ('experiential') reasoning and less use of slower effortful analytic ('rational') reasoning. The objectives of the new study were to replicate the test of paranoia and reasoning styles in a large general population sample and to assess the use of these reasoning styles in patients with persecutory delusions. 30 Patients with persecutory delusions in the context of a non-affective psychotic disorder and 1000 non-clinical individuals completed self-report assessments of paranoia and reasoning styles. The patients with delusions reported lower levels of both experiential and analytic reasoning than the non-clinical individuals (effect sizes small to moderate). Both self-rated ability and engagement with the reasoning styles were lower in the clinical group. Within the non-clinical group, greater levels of paranoia were associated with lower levels of analytic reasoning, but there was no association with experiential reasoning. The study is cross-sectional and cannot determine whether the reasoning styles contribute to the occurrence of paranoia. It also cannot be determined whether the patient group's lower reasoning scores are specifically associated with the delusions. Clinical paranoia is associated with less reported use of analytic and experiential reasoning. This may reflect patients with current delusions being unconfident in their reasoning abilities or less aware of decision-making processes and hence less able to re-evaluate fearful cognitions. The dual process theory of reasoning may provide a helpful framework in which to discuss with patients decision-making styles. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science.

PubMed

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive "adaptive toolbox;" the prescriptive study of their "ecological rationality," that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of "intuitive design," that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions.

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science

PubMed Central

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive “adaptive toolbox;” the prescriptive study of their “ecological rationality,” that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of “intuitive design,” that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions. PMID:26579051

An analysis of clinical reasoning through a recent and comprehensive approach: the dual-process theory

PubMed Central

Pelaccia, Thierry; Tardif, Jacques; Triby, Emmanuel; Charlin, Bernard

2011-01-01

Context Clinical reasoning plays a major role in the ability of doctors to make diagnoses and decisions. It is considered as the physician's most critical competence, and has been widely studied by physicians, educationalists, psychologists and sociologists. Since the 1970s, many theories about clinical reasoning in medicine have been put forward. Purpose This paper aims at exploring a comprehensive approach: the “dual-process theory”, a model developed by cognitive psychologists over the last few years. Discussion After 40 years of sometimes contradictory studies on clinical reasoning, the dual-process theory gives us many answers on how doctors think while making diagnoses and decisions. It highlights the importance of physicians’ intuition and the high level of interaction between analytical and non-analytical processes. However, it has not received much attention in the medical education literature. The implications of dual-process models of reasoning in terms of medical education will be discussed. PMID:21430797

Is Israel ready for disease management?

PubMed

Linden, Ariel

2006-10-01

Approximately 60% of all worldwide deaths are caused by chronic disease resulting from modifiable health behaviors. In the United States, structured programs tailored to identify and modify health behaviors of patients with chronic illness have grown into a robust industry called disease management. DM is premised upon the basic assumption that health services utilization and morbidity can be reduced for those with chronic illness by augmenting traditional episodic medical care services and support between physician visits. Given that Israel and the U.S. have similar demographics in their chronically ill populations, it would make intuitive sense for Israel to replicate efforts made in the U.S. to incorporate DM strategies. This paper provides a conceptual framework of how DM could be integrated within the current organizational structure of the Israeli healthcare system, which is uniquely conducive to the implementation of DM on a population-wide basis. While ultimately the decision to invest in DM lies with stakeholders at various institutional levels in Israel, this paper is intended to provide direction and support for that decision-making process.

Representing causal knowledge in environmental policy interventions: Advantages and opportunities for qualitative influence diagram applications.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Dyson, Brian E; Benson, William H

2018-01-15

This article develops and explores a methodology for using qualitative influence diagrams in environmental policy and management to support decision making efforts that minimize risk and increase resiliency. Influence diagrams are representations of the conditional aspects of a problem domain. Their graphical properties are useful for structuring causal knowledge relevant to policy interventions and can be used to enhance inference and inclusivity of multiple viewpoints. Qualitative components of influence diagrams are beneficial tools for identifying and examining the interactions among the critical variables in complex policy development and implementation. Policy interventions on social-environmental systems can be intuitively diagrammed for representing knowledge of critical relationships among economic, environmental, and social attributes. Examples relevant to coastal resiliency issues in the U.S. Gulf Coast region are developed to illustrate model structures for developing qualitative influence diagrams useful for clarifying important policy intervention issues and enhancing transparency in decision making. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Understanding nurses' decision-making when managing weaning from mechanical ventilation: a study of novice and experienced critical care nurses in Scotland and Greece.

PubMed

Kydonaki, Kalliopi; Huby, Guro; Tocher, Jennifer; Aitken, Leanne M

2016-02-01

To examine how nurses collect and use cues from respiratory assessment to inform their decisions as they wean patients from ventilatory support. Prompt and accurate identification of the patient's ability to sustain reduction of ventilatory support has the potential to increase the likelihood of successful weaning. Nurses' information processing during the weaning from mechanical ventilation has not been well-described. A descriptive ethnographic study exploring critical care nurses' decision-making processes when weaning mechanically ventilated patients from ventilatory support in the real setting. Novice and expert Scottish and Greek nurses from two tertiary intensive care units were observed in real practice of weaning mechanical ventilation and were invited to participate in reflective interviews near the end of their shift. Data were analysed thematically using concept maps based on information processing theory. Ethics approval and informed consent were obtained. Scottish and Greek critical care nurses acquired patient-centred objective physiological and subjective information from respiratory assessment and previous knowledge of the patient, which they clustered around seven concepts descriptive of the patient's ability to wean. Less experienced nurses required more encounters of cues to attain the concepts with certainty. Subjective criteria were intuitively derived from previous knowledge of patients' responses to changes of ventilatory support. All nurses used focusing decision-making strategies to select and group cues in order to categorise information with certainty and reduce the mental strain of the decision task. Nurses used patient-centred information to make a judgment about the patients' ability to wean. Decision-making strategies that involve categorisation of patient-centred information can be taught in bespoke educational programmes for mechanical ventilation and weaning. Advanced clinical reasoning skills and accurate detection of cues in respiratory assessment by critical care nurses will ensure optimum patient management in weaning mechanical ventilation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A boost of confidence: The role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in memory, decision-making, and schemas.

PubMed

Hebscher, Melissa; Gilboa, Asaf

2016-09-01

The ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) has been implicated in a wide array of functions across multiple domains. In this review, we focus on the vmPFC's involvement in mediating strategic aspects of memory retrieval, memory-related schema functions, and decision-making. We suggest that vmPFC generates a confidence signal that informs decisions and memory-guided behaviour. Confidence is central to these seemingly diverse functions: (1) Strategic retrieval: lesions to the vmPFC impair an early, automatic, and intuitive monitoring process ("feeling of rightness"; FOR) often associated with confabulation (spontaneous reporting of erroneous memories). Critically, confabulators typically demonstrate high levels of confidence in their false memories, suggesting that faulty monitoring following vmPFC damage may lead to indiscriminate confidence signals. (2) Memory schemas: the vmPFC is critically involved in instantiating and maintaining contextually relevant schemas, broadly defined as higher level knowledge structures that encapsulate lower level representational elements. The correspondence between memory retrieval cues and these activated schemas leads to FOR monitoring. Stronger, more elaborate schemas produce stronger FOR and influence confidence in the veracity of memory candidates. (3) Finally, we review evidence on the vmPFC's role in decision-making, extending this role to decision-making during memory retrieval. During non-mnemonic and mnemonic decision-making the vmPFC automatically encodes confidence. Confidence signal in the vmPFC is revealed as a non-linear relationship between a first-order monitoring assessment and second-order action or choice. Attempting to integrate the multiple functions of the vmPFC, we propose a posterior-anterior organizational principle for this region. More posterior vmPFC regions are involved in earlier, automatic, subjective, and contextually sensitive functions, while more anterior regions are involved in controlled actions based on these earlier functions. Confidence signals reflect the non-linear relationship between first-order, posterior-mediated and second-order, anterior-mediated processes and are represented along the entire axis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gambling with your life: the process of breast cancer treatment decision making in Chinese women.

PubMed

Lam, Wendy Wt; Fielding, Richard; Chan, Miranda; Chow, Louis; Or, Amy

2005-01-01

Treatment decision making (TDM) studies have primarily focused on assessing TDM quality and predominantly presume rational analytic processes as the gold standard. In a grounded theory study of 22 Hong Kong Chinese women following breast surgery who completed an in-depth interview exploring the process of TDM in breast cancer (BC), narrative data showed that discovery of a breast abnormality and emotional responses to BC diagnosis influence the TDM process. Lack of guidance from surgeons impaired TDM. Decisions were, for the most part, made using intuitive, pragmatic and emotionally driven criteria in the absence of complete information. The experience of TDM, which was likened to gambling, did not end once the decision was made but unfolded while waiting for surgery and the post-operative report. In this waiting period, women were emotionally overwhelmed by fear of death and the uncertainty of the surgical outcome, and equivocated over whether they had made the 'right' choice. This suggests that Chinese women feel they are gambling with their lives during TDM. These women are particularly emotionally vulnerable whilst waiting for their surgery and the post-surgical clinical pathology results. Providing emotional support is particularly important at this time when these women are overwhelmed by uncertainty. 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Collective Benefits of Feeling Good and Letting Go: Positive Emotion and (dis)Inhibition Interact to Predict Cooperative Behavior

PubMed Central

Rand, David G.; Kraft-Todd, Gordon; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

Cooperation is central to human existence, forming the bedrock of everyday social relationships and larger societal structures. Thus, understanding the psychological underpinnings of cooperation is of both scientific and practical importance. Recent work using a dual-process framework suggests that intuitive processing can promote cooperation while deliberative processing can undermine it. Here we add to this line of research by more specifically identifying deliberative and intuitive processes that affect cooperation. To do so, we applied automated text analysis using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software to investigate the association between behavior in one-shot anonymous economic cooperation games and the presence inhibition (a deliberative process) and positive emotion (an intuitive process) in free-response narratives written after (Study 1, N = 4,218) or during (Study 2, N = 236) the decision-making process. Consistent with previous results, across both studies inhibition predicted reduced cooperation while positive emotion predicted increased cooperation (even when controlling for negative emotion). Importantly, there was a significant interaction between positive emotion and inhibition, such that the most cooperative individuals had high positive emotion and low inhibition. This suggests that inhibition (i.e., reflective or deliberative processing) may undermine cooperative behavior by suppressing the prosocial effects of positive emotion. PMID:25625722

Behavioral and autonomic reactivity to moral dilemmas in frontotemporal dementia versus Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Fong, Sylvia S; Navarrete, Carlos David; Perfecto, Sean E; Carr, Andrew R; Jimenez, Elvira E; Mendez, Mario F

2017-08-01

The personal/impersonal distinction of moral decision-making postulates intuitive emotional responses from medial frontal activity and rational evaluation from lateral frontal activity. This model can be analyzed in behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), a disorder characterized by impaired emotional intuitions, ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) involvement, and relative sparing of lateral frontal regions. Moral dilemmas were presented to 10 bvFTD, 11 Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 9 healthy control (HC) participants while recording skin conductance responses, a measure of emotional arousal. We evaluated their personal versus impersonal conflict, subjective discomfort, and adherence to social norms. Replicating prior work, bvFTD participants were more willing to harm in the personal, but not the impersonal, dilemma compared to AD and HC groups. BvFTD participants had lower arousal and less of an increase in conflict on the personal versus the impersonal dilemma, in contrast to increased arousal and conflict for the AD and HC groups. Furthermore, bvFTD participants verbalized less discomfort, a correlate of low adherence to social norms. These findings support impaired emotional reactions to moral dilemmas in bvFTD and vmPFC lesions and the personal/impersonal model. It suggests a reversion to utilitarian-like considerations when emotional intuition is impaired in the brain.

The collective benefits of feeling good and letting go: positive emotion and (dis)inhibition interact to predict cooperative behavior.

PubMed

Rand, David G; Kraft-Todd, Gordon; Gruber, June

2015-01-01

Cooperation is central to human existence, forming the bedrock of everyday social relationships and larger societal structures. Thus, understanding the psychological underpinnings of cooperation is of both scientific and practical importance. Recent work using a dual-process framework suggests that intuitive processing can promote cooperation while deliberative processing can undermine it. Here we add to this line of research by more specifically identifying deliberative and intuitive processes that affect cooperation. To do so, we applied automated text analysis using the Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) software to investigate the association between behavior in one-shot anonymous economic cooperation games and the presence inhibition (a deliberative process) and positive emotion (an intuitive process) in free-response narratives written after (Study 1, N = 4,218) or during (Study 2, N = 236) the decision-making process. Consistent with previous results, across both studies inhibition predicted reduced cooperation while positive emotion predicted increased cooperation (even when controlling for negative emotion). Importantly, there was a significant interaction between positive emotion and inhibition, such that the most cooperative individuals had high positive emotion and low inhibition. This suggests that inhibition (i.e., reflective or deliberative processing) may undermine cooperative behavior by suppressing the prosocial effects of positive emotion.

The Relationship between Intuitive Action Choices and Moral Reasoning on Animal Ethics Issues in Students of Veterinary Medicine and Other Relevant Professions.

PubMed

Verrinder, Joy M; Phillips, Clive J C

2018-01-01

With growing understanding of animals' capabilities, and public and organizational pressures to improve animal welfare, moral action by veterinarians and other relevant professionals to address animal issues is increasingly important. Little is known about how their action choices relate to their moral reasoning on animal ethics issues. A moral judgment measure, the VetDIT, with three animal and three non-animal scenarios, was used to investigate the action choices of 619 students in five animal- and two non-animal-related professional programs in one Australian university, and how these related to their moral reasoning based on Personal Interest (PI), Maintaining Norms (MN), or Universal Principles (UP) schemas. Action choices showed significant relationships to PI, MN, and UP questions, and these varied across program groups. Having a previous degree or more experience with farm animals had a negative relationship, and experience with horses or companion animals a positive relationship, with intuitive action choices favoring life and bodily integrity of animals. This study helps to explain the complex relationship between intuitive moral action choices and moral reasoning on animal ethics issues. As a useful research and educational tool for understanding this relationship, the VetDIT can enhance ethical decision making.

The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, John V.

Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach, which was unexpected based on the literature. This work expanded the methods for studying scenario planning, enhanced the body of scholarly works on scenario planning, and provided a starting point for additional research concerning the use of scenario planning by electric utilities.

The four principles: Can they be measured and do they predict ethical decision making?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The four principles of Beauchamp and Childress - autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice - have been extremely influential in the field of medical ethics, and are fundamental for understanding the current approach to ethical assessment in health care. This study tests whether these principles can be quantitatively measured on an individual level, and then subsequently if they are used in the decision making process when individuals are faced with ethical dilemmas. Methods The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used as a tool for the measurement of the principles. Four scenarios, which involved conflicts between the medical ethical principles, were presented to participants who then made judgments about the ethicality of the action in the scenario, and their intentions to act in the same manner if they were in the situation. Results Individual preferences for these medical ethical principles can be measured using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This technique provides a useful tool in which to highlight individual medical ethical values. On average, individuals have a significant preference for non-maleficence over the other principles, however, and perhaps counter-intuitively, this preference does not seem to relate to applied ethical judgements in specific ethical dilemmas. Conclusions People state they value these medical ethical principles but they do not actually seem to use them directly in the decision making process. The reasons for this are explained through the lack of a behavioural model to account for the relevant situational factors not captured by the principles. The limitations of the principles in predicting ethical decision making are discussed. PMID:22606995

The four principles: can they be measured and do they predict ethical decision making?

PubMed

Page, Katie

2012-05-20

The four principles of Beauchamp and Childress--autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice--have been extremely influential in the field of medical ethics, and are fundamental for understanding the current approach to ethical assessment in health care. This study tests whether these principles can be quantitatively measured on an individual level, and then subsequently if they are used in the decision making process when individuals are faced with ethical dilemmas. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used as a tool for the measurement of the principles. Four scenarios, which involved conflicts between the medical ethical principles, were presented to participants who then made judgments about the ethicality of the action in the scenario, and their intentions to act in the same manner if they were in the situation. Individual preferences for these medical ethical principles can be measured using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This technique provides a useful tool in which to highlight individual medical ethical values. On average, individuals have a significant preference for non-maleficence over the other principles, however, and perhaps counter-intuitively, this preference does not seem to relate to applied ethical judgements in specific ethical dilemmas. People state they value these medical ethical principles but they do not actually seem to use them directly in the decision making process. The reasons for this are explained through the lack of a behavioural model to account for the relevant situational factors not captured by the principles. The limitations of the principles in predicting ethical decision making are discussed.

Characterization of Kentucky dairy producer decision-making behavior.

PubMed

Russell, R A; Bewley, J M

2013-07-01

To address dairy clientele needs, industry professionals need to understand how dairy producers make decisions. A survey was distributed to all licensed Kentucky milk producers (n=1,074) to better understand factors that influence dairy producer decisions. A total of 236 surveys were returned; 7 were omitted because they were incomplete, leaving 229 for subsequent analyses (21% response rate). The survey consisted of questions about dairy operational success criteria, decision evaluation criteria, information sources, and technology adoption. The mean response to each survey question was calculated after assigning the following numeric values to producer response categories: 1 = not important, 3 = important, 5 = very important. The most important source of influence or information in decision making was advice from consultants, nutritionists, and veterinarians (3.70±1.23), followed by consultation with business partners and family members (3.68±1.29), and intuition and gut feeling (3.10±1.45). Producers with large herds (≥200 cows) relied more heavily on information from consultants, nutritionists, and veterinarians and on employee input than did producers with small herds (1 to 49 cows). Producers with small herds did not use effect on employee morale as a criterion to evaluate decisions as much as those with larger herds did. In regard to adoption of automated monitoring technologies, producers indicated that modest adoption rates were a result of (1) not being familiar with technologies that are available (55%), (2) undesirable cost to benefit ratios (42%), and (3) too much information provided without knowing what to do with it (36%). As herd size increased, the percentage of producers selecting poor technical support and training and compatibility issues as reasons for slow adoption of automated technologies increased. This insight into dairy producer decision making should help industry professionals address dairy producer issues and concerns. Copyright © 2013 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving Professional Judgments of Risk and Amenability in Juvenile Justice

PubMed Central

Mulvey, Edward P.; Iselin, Anne-Marie R.

2013-01-01

Summary The dual requirement to ensure community safety and promote a youthful offender’s positive development permeates policy and frames daily practice in juvenile justice. Balancing those two demands, explain Edward Mulvey and Anne-Marie Iselin, requires justice system professionals at all levels to make extremely difficult decisions about the likely risk and amenability to treatment of adolescent offenders. Mulvey and Iselin point out that although various forms of “structured” decision-making instruments are used widely in other fields, juvenile justice professionals today make limited use of these tools. Instead, they make decisions based mainly on their intuition about whether the adolescent before them is more likely to harm the community or to use justice system services to turn his life around. The reluctance of busy court professionals to use these structured decision-making tools, they say, arises partly from their heavy work load. But it also grows out of the ethos of the juvenile court itself. Restricting an adolescent’s freedom or access to interventions based on a tallying of empirical data is antithetical to viewing each adolescent as a unique individual whose life chances may remain intact with developmentally appropriate intervention. Mulvey and Iselin recommend and examine three ways to integrate structured judgment approaches into the juvenile justice system that both capitalize on their strengths and support the court’s attempts to provide fair, individualized justice. First, more reliance on actuarial methods at detention and intake would promote more efficient and equitable screening of cases for subsequent court involvement. Second, the use of structured decision making by probation officers could provide more consistent and valid guidance for the court when formulating dispositions. Finally, implementing structured data systems to chart the progress of adolescents in placement could allow judges to oversee service providers more effectively. The challenge for the juvenile system, say the authors, will be to harness the new capacities of the science of decision making and of computer technology to increase the efficiency of its limited resources for the benefit both of the community and of the adolescents in the system. PMID:21337997

Associated Roles of Perioperative Medical Directors and Anesthesia: Hospital Agreements for Operating Room Management.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Epstein, Richard H

2015-12-01

As reviewed previously, decision making can be made systematically shortly before the day of surgery based on reducing the hours of overutilized operating room (OR) time and tardiness of case starts (i.e., patient waiting). We subsequently considered in 2008 that such decision making depends on rational anesthesia-hospital agreements specifying anesthesia staffing. Since that prior study, there has been a substantial increase in understanding of the timing of decision making to reduce overutilized OR time. Most decisions substantively influencing overutilized OR time are those made within 1 workday before the day of surgery and on the day of surgery, because only then are ORs sufficiently full that case scheduling and staff assignment decisions affect overutilized OR time. Consequently, anesthesiologists can easily be engaged in such decisions, because generally they must be involved to ensure that the corresponding anesthesia staff assignments are appropriate. Despite this, at hospitals with >8 hours of OR time used daily in each OR, computerized recommendations are superior to intuition because of cognitive biases. Decisions need to be made by a Perioperative Medical Director who has knowledge of the principles of perioperative managerial decision making published in the scientific literature rather than by a committee lacking this competency. Education in the scientific literature, and when different analytical methods should be used, is important. The addition that we make in this article is to show that an agreement between an anesthesia group and a hospital can both reduce overutilized OR time and patient waiting: The anesthesia group and hospital will ensure, hourly, that, when there are case(s) waiting to start, the number of ORs in use for each service will be at least the number that maximizes the efficiency of use of OR time. Neither the anesthesia group nor the hospital will be expected to run more than that number of ORs without mutual agreement. Agreements assure that processes mutually beneficial to organizations, but not necessarily to individuals at each point in time, are performed as designed, especially in the setting of cognitive biases.

Consumerism and wellness: rising tide, falling cost.

PubMed

Domaszewicz, Alexander

2008-01-01

Annual employer-sponsored health plan cost increases have been slowing incrementally due to slowing health care utilization--a phenomenon very likely tied to the proliferation of health management activities, wellness programs and other consumerism strategies. This article describes the sharp rise in recent years of consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) and explains what developments must happen for genuine consumer-directed health care to realize its full potential. These developments include gathering transparent health care information, increasing consumer demand for that information and creating truly intuitive data solutions that allow consumers to easily access information in order to make better health care decisions.

Cancer patients' perceptions of do not resuscitate orders.

PubMed

Olver, Ian N; Eliott, Jaklin A; Blake-Mortimer, Jane

2002-01-01

Patients' perceptions of do not resuscitate (DNR) orders and how and when to present the information were sought to aid in framing DNR policy. Semi-structured interviews of 23 patients being treated for cancer, were conducted by a clinical psychologist. The interviews were transcribed and analysed with the aid of a qualitative software package. Discourse analysis enabled hypotheses to be formed based on consistencies and variations of the language used. Most patients understood what DNR meant and preferred DNR orders to 'good palliative care' orders. They saw it as their autonomous right and responsibility to make such decisions. They would seek information on the likely medical outcomes of resuscitation but also would use non-rational criteria based on emotional and social factors to make their decisions. Family considerations suggest that personal autonomy is not the overriding basis of the decision. Patients were unsure of the best timing of a DNR discussion and were prepared to defer to doctors' intuition. Most advocated written DNR orders but few had them. Families were construed as advocates but also seen as constraining individual autonomy. When considering DNR orders, patients recognise the diversity of preferences likely to exist that belie a one policy fits all approach. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring Category Intuitiveness in Unconstrained Categorization Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Perlman, Amotz; Bailey, Todd M.; Kurtz, Ken; Edwards, Darren J.; Hines, Peter; McDonnell, John V.

2011-01-01

What makes a category seem natural or intuitive? In this paper, an unsupervised categorization task was employed to examine observer agreement concerning the categorization of nine different stimulus sets. The stimulus sets were designed to capture different intuitions about classification structure. The main empirical index of category…

Clinical decision making by nurses when faced with third-space fluid shift. How well do they fare?

PubMed

Redden, M; Wotton, K

2001-01-01

Nurses' use of knowledge, the connection of this knowledge to treatment decisions and information actually used to reach such decisions, delineates nurses' level of expertise. Previous research has shown that nurses in their clinical decision-making use the hypothetico-deductive method and intuitive judgment or pattern recognition. This interpretive study explored experienced critical care nurses' (n = 5) and gastrointestinal surgical nurses' (n = 5) clinical decision-making processes through ascertaining their knowledge and understanding of third-space fluid shift in elderly patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. Both groups of nurses, because of their experience with elderly patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery, were assumed to be experts. Data collection techniques included semi-structured interviews and the use of think aloud protocol for clinical scenario analysis. The findings demonstrated that the gastrointestinal surgical nurses used the hypothetico-deductive method to recognize critical cues and the existence of a problem but could not name the problem. The critical care nurses, on the other hand, used a combination of the hypothetico-deductive method and pattern recognition as a basis for identification of critical cues. The critical care nurses also possessed in depth knowledge of third-space fluid shift and were able to use pivotal cues to identify the actual phenomenon. Ultimately, it would appear that the structure of critical care nurses' work, their increased educational qualifications and the culture of the critical care unit promote a more proactive approach to reasoning in the physiological domain. The findings have implications for the development of practice guidelines and curriculum development in both tertiary and continuing nurse education.

CET exSim: mineral exploration experience via simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Jason C.; Holden, Eun-Jung; Kovesi, Peter; McCuaig, T. Campbell; Hronsky, Jon

2013-08-01

Undercover mineral exploration is a challenging task as it requires understanding of subsurface geology by relying heavily on remotely sensed (i.e. geophysical) data. Cost-effective exploration is essential in order to increase the chance of success using finite budgets. This requires effective decision-making in both the process of selecting the optimum data collection methods and in the process of achieving accuracy during subsequent interpretation. Traditionally, developing the skills, behaviour and practices of exploration decision-making requires many years of experience through working on exploration projects under various geological settings, commodities and levels of available resources. This implies long periods of sub-optimal exploration decision-making, before the necessary experience has been successfully obtained. To address this critical industry issue, our ongoing research focuses on the development of the unique and novel e-learning environment, exSim, which simulates exploration scenarios where users can test their strategies and learn the consequences of their choices. This simulator provides an engaging platform for self-learning and experimentation in exploration decision strategies, providing a means to build experience more effectively. The exSim environment also provides a unique platform on which numerous scenarios and situations (e.g. deposit styles) can be simulated, potentially allowing the user to become virtually familiarised with a broader scope of exploration practices. Harnessing the power of computer simulation, visualisation and an intuitive graphical user interface, the simulator provides a way to assess the user's exploration decisions and subsequent interpretations. In this paper, we present the prototype functionalities in exSim including: simulation of geophysical surveys, follow-up drill testing and interpretation assistive tools.

Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing

PubMed Central

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called “threshold probability” at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today’s clinical practice. PMID:26244571

Dual Processing Model for Medical Decision-Making: An Extension to Diagnostic Testing.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Kumar, Ambuj; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Dual Processing Theories (DPT) assume that human cognition is governed by two distinct types of processes typically referred to as type 1 (intuitive) and type 2 (deliberative). Based on DPT we have derived a Dual Processing Model (DPM) to describe and explain therapeutic medical decision-making. The DPM model indicates that doctors decide to treat when treatment benefits outweigh its harms, which occurs when the probability of the disease is greater than the so called "threshold probability" at which treatment benefits are equal to treatment harms. Here we extend our work to include a wider class of decision problems that involve diagnostic testing. We illustrate applicability of the proposed model in a typical clinical scenario considering the management of a patient with prostate cancer. To that end, we calculate and compare two types of decision-thresholds: one that adheres to expected utility theory (EUT) and the second according to DPM. Our results showed that the decisions to administer a diagnostic test could be better explained using the DPM threshold. This is because such decisions depend on objective evidence of test/treatment benefits and harms as well as type 1 cognition of benefits and harms, which are not considered under EUT. Given that type 1 processes are unique to each decision-maker, this means that the DPM threshold will vary among different individuals. We also showed that when type 1 processes exclusively dominate decisions, ordering a diagnostic test does not affect a decision; the decision is based on the assessment of benefits and harms of treatment. These findings could explain variations in the treatment and diagnostic patterns documented in today's clinical practice.

Six Challenges for Ethical Conduct in Science.

PubMed

Niemi, Petteri

2016-08-01

The realities of human agency and decision making pose serious challenges for research ethics. This article explores six major challenges that require more attention in the ethics education of students and scientists and in the research on ethical conduct in science. The first of them is the routinization of action, which makes the detection of ethical issues difficult. The social governance of action creates ethical problems related to power. The heuristic nature of human decision making implies the risk of ethical bias. The moral disengagement mechanisms represent a human tendency to evade personal responsibility. The greatest challenge of all might be the situational variation in people's ethical behaviour. Even minor situational factors have a surprisingly strong influence on our actions. Furthermore, finally, the nature of ethics itself also causes problems: instead of clear answers, we receive a multitude of theories and intuitions that may sometimes be contradictory. All these features of action and ethics represent significant risks for ethical conduct in science. I claim that they have to be managed within the everyday practices of science and addressed explicitly in research ethics education. I analyse them and suggest some ways in which their risks can be alleviated.

How learning style affects evidence-based medicine: a survey study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Learning styles determine how people manage new information. Evidence-based medicine (EBM) involves the management of information in clinical practice. As a consequence, the way in which a person uses EBM can be related to his or her learning style. In order to tailor EBM education to the individual learner, this study aims to determine whether there is a relationship between an individual's learning style and EBM competence (knowledge/skills, attitude, behaviour). Methods In 2008, we conducted a survey among 140 novice GP trainees in order to assess their EBM competence and learning styles (Accommodator, Diverger, Assimilator, Converger, or mixed learning style). Results The trainees' EBM knowledge/skills (scale 0-15; mean 6.8; 95%CI 6.4-7.2) were adequate and their attitudes towards EBM (scale 0-100; mean 63; 95%CI 61.3-64.3) were positive. We found no relationship between their knowledge/skills or attitudes and their learning styles (p = 0.21; p = 0.19). Of the trainees, 40% used guidelines to answer clinical questions and 55% agreed that the use of guidelines is the most appropriate way of applying EBM in general practice. Trainees preferred using evidence from summaries to using evidence from single studies. There were no differences in medical decision-making or in EBM use (p = 0.59) for the various learning styles. However, we did find a link between having an Accommodating or Converging learning style and making greater use of intuition. Moreover, trainees with different learning styles expressed different ideas about the optimal use of EBM in primary care. Conclusions We found that EBM knowledge/skills and EBM attitudes did not differ with respect to the learning styles of GP trainees. However, we did find differences relating to the use of intuition and the trainees' ideas regarding the use of evidence in decision-making. PMID:21982307

Web-Based Geographic Information System Tool for Accessing Hanford Site Environmental Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Triplett, Mark B.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Watson, David J.

Data volume, complexity, and access issues pose severe challenges for analysts, regulators and stakeholders attempting to efficiently use legacy data to support decision making at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site. DOE has partnered with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) on the PHOENIX (PNNL-Hanford Online Environmental Information System) project, which seeks to address data access, transparency, and integration challenges at Hanford to provide effective decision support. PHOENIX is a family of spatially-enabled web applications providing quick access to decades of valuable scientific data and insight through intuitive query, visualization, and analysis tools. PHOENIX realizes broad, public accessibilitymore » by relying only on ubiquitous web-browsers, eliminating the need for specialized software. It accommodates a wide range of users with intuitive user interfaces that require little or no training to quickly obtain and visualize data. Currently, PHOENIX is actively hosting three applications focused on groundwater monitoring, groundwater clean-up performance reporting, and in-tank monitoring. PHOENIX-based applications are being used to streamline investigative and analytical processes at Hanford, saving time and money. But more importantly, by integrating previously isolated datasets and developing relevant visualization and analysis tools, PHOENIX applications are enabling DOE to discover new correlations hidden in legacy data, allowing them to more effectively address complex issues at Hanford.« less

A Survey to Determine Decision-Making Styles of Working Paramedics and Student Paramedics.

PubMed

Jensen, J L; Bienkowski, A; Travers, A H; Calder, L A; Walker, M; Tavares, W; Croskerry, P

2016-05-01

Two major processes underlie human decision-making: experiential (intuitive) and rational (conscious) thinking. The predominant thinking process used by working paramedics and student paramedics to make clinical decisions is unknown. A survey was administered to ground ambulance paramedics and to primary care paramedic students. The survey included demographic questions and the Rational Experiential Inventory-40, a validated psychometric tool involving 40 questions. Twenty questions evaluated each thinking style: 10 assessed preference and 10 assessed ability to use that style. Responses were provided on a five-point Likert scale, with higher scores indicating higher affinity for the style in question. Analysis included both descriptive statistics and t tests to evaluate differences in thinking style. The response rate was 88.4% (1172/1326). Paramedics (n=904) had a median age of 36 years (IQR 29-42) and most were male (69.5%) and primary or advanced care paramedics (PCP=55.5%; ACP=32.5%). Paramedic students (n=268) had a median age of 23 years (IQR 21-26), most were male (63.1%) and had completed high school (31.7%) or an undergraduate degree (25.4%) prior to paramedic training. Both groups scored their ability to use and favourability toward rational thinking significantly higher than experiential thinking. The mean score for rational thinking was 3.86/5 among paramedics and 3.97/5 among paramedic students (p<0.001). The mean score for experiential thinking was 3.41/5 among paramedics and 3.35/5 among paramedic students (p=0.06). Working paramedics and student paramedics prefer and perceive that they have the ability to use rational over experiential thinking. This information adds to our current knowledge on paramedic decision-making and is potentially important for developing continuing education and clinical support tools.

Food labels promote healthy choices by a decision bias in the amygdala.

PubMed

Grabenhorst, Fabian; Schulte, Frank P; Maderwald, Stefan; Brand, Matthias

2013-07-01

Food labeling is the major health policy strategy to counter rising obesity rates. Based on traditional economic theory, such strategies assume that detailed nutritional information will necessarily help individuals make better, healthier choices. However, in contrast to the well-known utility of labels in food marketing, evidence for the efficacy of nutritional labeling is mixed. Psychological and behavioral economic theories suggest that successful marketing strategies activate automatic decision biases and emotions, which involve implicit emotional brain systems. Accordingly, simple, intuitive food labels that engage these neural systems could represent a promising approach for promoting healthier choices. Here we used functional MRI to investigate this possibility. Healthy, mildly hungry subjects performed a food evaluation task and a food choice task. The main experimental manipulation was to pair identical foods with simple labels that emphasized either taste benefits or health-related food properties. We found that such labels biased food evaluations in the amygdala, a core emotional brain system. When labels biased the amygdala's evaluations towards health-related food properties, the strength of this bias predicted behavioral shifts towards healthier choices. At the time of decision-making, amygdala activity encoded key decision variables, potentially reflecting active amygdala participation in food choice. Our findings underscore the potential utility of food labeling in health policy and indicate a principal role for emotional brain systems when labels guide food choices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epistemic beliefs' role in promoting misperceptions and conspiracist ideation.

PubMed

Garrett, R Kelly; Weeks, Brian E

2017-01-01

Widespread misperceptions undermine citizens' decision-making ability. Conclusions based on falsehoods and conspiracy theories are by definition flawed. This article demonstrates that individuals' epistemic beliefs-beliefs about the nature of knowledge and how one comes to know-have important implications for perception accuracy. The present study uses a series of large, nationally representative surveys of the U.S. population to produce valid and reliable measures of three aspects of epistemic beliefs: reliance on intuition for factual beliefs (Faith in Intuition for facts), importance of consistency between empirical evidence and beliefs (Need for evidence), and conviction that "facts" are politically constructed (Truth is political). Analyses confirm that these factors complement established predictors of misperception, substantively increasing our ability to explain both individuals' propensity to engage in conspiracist ideation, and their willingness to embrace falsehoods about high-profile scientific and political issues. Individuals who view reality as a political construct are significantly more likely to embrace falsehoods, whereas those who believe that their conclusions must hew to available evidence tend to hold more accurate beliefs. Confidence in the ability to intuitively recognize truth is a uniquely important predictor of conspiracist ideation. Results suggest that efforts to counter misperceptions may be helped by promoting epistemic beliefs emphasizing the importance of evidence, cautious use of feelings, and trust that rigorous assessment by knowledgeable specialists is an effective guard against political manipulation.

Epistemic beliefs’ role in promoting misperceptions and conspiracist ideation

PubMed Central

Weeks, Brian E.

2017-01-01

Widespread misperceptions undermine citizens’ decision-making ability. Conclusions based on falsehoods and conspiracy theories are by definition flawed. This article demonstrates that individuals’ epistemic beliefs–beliefs about the nature of knowledge and how one comes to know–have important implications for perception accuracy. The present study uses a series of large, nationally representative surveys of the U.S. population to produce valid and reliable measures of three aspects of epistemic beliefs: reliance on intuition for factual beliefs (Faith in Intuition for facts), importance of consistency between empirical evidence and beliefs (Need for evidence), and conviction that “facts” are politically constructed (Truth is political). Analyses confirm that these factors complement established predictors of misperception, substantively increasing our ability to explain both individuals’ propensity to engage in conspiracist ideation, and their willingness to embrace falsehoods about high-profile scientific and political issues. Individuals who view reality as a political construct are significantly more likely to embrace falsehoods, whereas those who believe that their conclusions must hew to available evidence tend to hold more accurate beliefs. Confidence in the ability to intuitively recognize truth is a uniquely important predictor of conspiracist ideation. Results suggest that efforts to counter misperceptions may be helped by promoting epistemic beliefs emphasizing the importance of evidence, cautious use of feelings, and trust that rigorous assessment by knowledgeable specialists is an effective guard against political manipulation. PMID:28922387

[Ethical and philosophical dimensions of decision-making in public health].

PubMed

Grémy, F

2008-01-01

Decisions in public health, or in individual health care, are taken by people (individuals or collective) for other people (individuals or collective). Human values, that is to say what is connected to Ethics, should be to the fore, de jure. Too often, under the pretext that they refer to subjectivity, they appear only after very many technical considerations. The latter, in a scientist society, are supposed to deserve a claim to objectivity, this being of course illusory. The author, placing himself in the line of Levinas, Ricoeur, and also of Kant, for whom the "What must I do?" is the most fundamental question any human being has to face, develops four reasons which plead for the pre-eminence of ethics as the foundation of decisions in a policy for public health. 1) He reminds us the intangible values, which are on one side uniqueness and universality of mankind, and on the other side the singularity of the human person. 2) He insists on the ethical wreck which threatens the whole health- and healthcare systems. 3) He sets out some results of modern neurophysiological research (AR Damasio's work), joining an intuition of Aristoteles: the decision making process implies two phases: deliberation the aim of which is to list the different possible actions to undertake, then the choice between those actions. Damasio shows that the lack of emotions inhibits the choice, especially when decision implies human values. 4) Finally, he insists, after E. Morin, on the practical and theoretical difficulties in taking a "good" decision, and on what Morin calls "ecology of action". The results of a decision may completely escape from the decision-makers aims, very often for unexpected social and psychological reasons.

The explanatory power of Schema Theory: theoretical foundations and future applications in Ergonomics.

PubMed

Plant, Katherine L; Stanton, Neville A

2013-01-01

Schema Theory is intuitively appealing although it has not always received positive press; critics of the approach argue that the concept is too ambiguous and vague and there are inherent difficulties associated with measuring schemata. As such, the term schema can be met with scepticism and wariness. The purpose of this paper is to address the criticisms that have been levelled at Schema Theory by demonstrating how Schema Theory has been utilised in Ergonomics research, particularly in the key areas of situation awareness, naturalistic decision making and error. The future of Schema Theory is also discussed in light of its potential roles as a unifying theory in Ergonomics and in contributing to our understanding of distributed cognition. We conclude that Schema Theory has made a positive contribution to Ergonomics and with continued refinement of methods to infer and represent schemata it is likely that this trend will continue. This paper reviews the contribution that Schema Theory has made to Ergonomics research. The criticisms of the theory are addressed using examples from the areas of situation awareness, decision making and error.

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

PubMed

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

Goal-directed, habitual and Pavlovian prosocial behavior

PubMed Central

Gęsiarz, Filip; Crockett, Molly J.

2015-01-01

Although prosocial behaviors have been widely studied across disciplines, the mechanisms underlying them are not fully understood. Evidence from psychology, biology and economics suggests that prosocial behaviors can be driven by a variety of seemingly opposing factors: altruism or egoism, intuition or deliberation, inborn instincts or learned dispositions, and utility derived from actions or their outcomes. Here we propose a framework inspired by research on reinforcement learning and decision making that links these processes and explains characteristics of prosocial behaviors in different contexts. More specifically, we suggest that prosocial behaviors inherit features of up to three decision-making systems employed to choose between self- and other- regarding acts: a goal-directed system that selects actions based on their predicted consequences, a habitual system that selects actions based on their reinforcement history, and a Pavlovian system that emits reflexive responses based on evolutionarily prescribed priors. This framework, initially described in the field of cognitive neuroscience and machine learning, provides insight into the potential neural circuits and computations shaping prosocial behaviors. Furthermore, it identifies specific conditions in which each of these three systems should dominate and promote other- or self- regarding behavior. PMID:26074797

Examining direct and indirect pathways to health behaviour: the influence of cognitive and affective probability beliefs.

PubMed

Janssen, Eva; van Osch, Liesbeth; de Vries, Hein; Lechner, Lilian

2013-01-01

This study aimed to extricate the influence of rational (e.g., 'I think …') and intuitive (e.g., 'I feel …') probability beliefs in the behavioural decision-making process regarding skin cancer prevention practices. Structural equation modelling was used in two longitudinal surveys (sun protection during winter sports [N = 491]; sun protection during summer [N = 277]) to examine direct and indirect behavioural effects of affective and cognitive likelihood (i.e. unmediated or mediated by intention), controlled for attitude, social influence and self-efficacy. Affective likelihood was directly related to sun protection in both studies, whereas no direct effects were found for cognitive likelihood. After accounting for past sun protective behaviour, affective likelihood was only directly related to sun protection in Study 1. No support was found for the indirect effects of affective and cognitive likelihood through intention. The findings underscore the importance of feelings of (cancer) risk in the decision-making process and should be acknowledged by health behaviour theories and risk communication practices. Suggestions for future research are discussed.

Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations - recent successes and future prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Runge, M.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Williams, B.K.; Schodde, Richard; Hannon, Susan; Scheiffarth, Gregor; Bairlein, Franz

2006-01-01

The history of North American waterfowl harvest management has been characterized by attempts to use population monitoring data to make informed harvest management decisions. Early attempts can be characterized as intuitive decision processes, and later efforts were guided increasingly by population models and associated predictions. In 1995, a formal adaptive management process was implemented, and annual decisions about duck harvest regulations in the United States are still based on this process. This formal decision process is designed to deal appropriately with the various forms of uncertainty that characterize management decisions, environmental uncertainty, structural uncertainty, partial controllability and partial observability. The key components of the process are (1) objectives, (2) potential management actions, (3) model(s) of population response to management actions, (4) credibility measures for these models, and (5) a monitoring program. The operation of this iterative process is described, and a brief history of a decade of its use is presented. Future challenges range from social and political issues such as appropriate objectives and management actions, to technical issues such as multispecies management, geographic allocation of harvest, and incorporation of actions that include habitat acquisition and management.

Strategic Decision Games: Improving Strategic Intuition

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-23

this is useful and enlightening , the truly powerful method of learning mathematical techniques is to work through many and various problems using...about, and approaches to, that new world. - General Tony Zinni, The Battle for Peace In 1972, evolutionary scientists Stephen Jay Gould and Niles... neurology and cognitive science, has identified a phenomenon similar to intuition that he calls “Intelligent Memory.” Dr. Gordon describes

Intuitive statistics by 8-month-old infants

PubMed Central

Xu, Fei; Garcia, Vashti

2008-01-01

Human learners make inductive inferences based on small amounts of data: we generalize from samples to populations and vice versa. The academic discipline of statistics formalizes these intuitive statistical inferences. What is the origin of this ability? We report six experiments investigating whether 8-month-old infants are “intuitive statisticians.” Our results showed that, given a sample, the infants were able to make inferences about the population from which the sample had been drawn. Conversely, given information about the entire population of relatively small size, the infants were able to make predictions about the sample. Our findings provide evidence that infants possess a powerful mechanism for inductive learning, either using heuristics or basic principles of probability. This ability to make inferences based on samples or information about the population develops early and in the absence of schooling or explicit teaching. Human infants may be rational learners from very early in development. PMID:18378901

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, and computational exposure assessment, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the computationally enabled “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptmore » in the toxicological sciences. The AEP framework offers an intuitive approach to successful organization of exposure science data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathway and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum and setting the stage for more efficient integration of exposure science and toxicity testing information. Together these frameworks form and inform a decision making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based or exposure-based decisions.« less

More Is Not Always Better: Intuitions About Effective Public Policy Can Lead to Unintended Consequences

PubMed Central

Peters, Ellen; Klein, William; Kaufman, Annette; Meilleur, Louise; Dixon, Anna

2013-01-01

Public policy decisions often appear based on an assumption that providing more options, more information, and greater decision-making autonomy to consumers will produce better outcomes. We examine reasons why this “more-is-better” approach exists based on the psychological literature. Although better outcomes can result from informed consumer choice, we argue that more options, information, and autonomy can also lead to unintended negative consequences. We use mostly health-related policies and guidelines from the United States and elsewhere as exemplars. We consider various psychological mechanisms that cause these unintended consequences including cognitive overload, affect, and anticipated regret, information salience and availability, and trust in governments as authoritative information providers. We also point toward potential solutions based on psychological research that may reduce the negative unintended consequences of a “more-is-better” approach. PMID:24000291

Emotions and assessment: considerations for rater-based judgements of entrustment.

PubMed

Gomez-Garibello, Carlos; Young, Meredith

2018-03-01

Assessment is subject to increasing scrutiny as medical education transitions towards a competency-based medical education (CBME) model. Traditional perspectives on the roles of assessment emphasise high-stakes, summative assessment, whereas CBME argues for formative assessment. Revisiting conceptualisations about the roles and formats of assessment in medical education provides opportunities to examine understandings and expectations of the assessment of learners. The act of the rater generating scores might be considered as an exclusively cognitive exercise; however, current literature has drawn attention to the notion of raters as measurement instruments, thereby attributing additional factors to their decision-making processes, such as social considerations and intuition. However, the literature has not comprehensively examined the influence of raters' emotions during assessment. In this narrative review, we explore the influence of raters' emotions in the assessment of learners. We summarise existing literature that describes the role of emotions in assessment broadly, and rater-based assessment specifically, across a variety of fields. The literature related to emotions and assessment is examined from different perspectives, including those of educational context, decision making and rater cognition. We use the concept of entrustable professional activities (EPAs) to contextualise a discussion of the ways in which raters' emotions may have meaningful impacts on the decisions they make in clinical settings. This review summarises findings from different perspectives and identifies areas for consideration for the role of emotion in rater-based assessment, and areas for future research. We identify and discuss three different interpretations of the influence of raters' emotions during assessments: (i) emotions lead to biased decision making; (ii) emotions contribute random noise to assessment, and (iii) emotions constitute legitimate sources of information that contribute to assessment decisions. We discuss these three interpretations in terms of areas for future research and implications for assessment. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Generalizing Prototype Theory: A Formal Quantum Framework

PubMed Central

Aerts, Diederik; Broekaert, Jan; Gabora, Liane; Sozzo, Sandro

2016-01-01

Theories of natural language and concepts have been unable to model the flexibility, creativity, context-dependence, and emergence, exhibited by words, concepts and their combinations. The mathematical formalism of quantum theory has instead been successful in capturing these phenomena such as graded membership, situational meaning, composition of categories, and also more complex decision making situations, which cannot be modeled in traditional probabilistic approaches. We show how a formal quantum approach to concepts and their combinations can provide a powerful extension of prototype theory. We explain how prototypes can interfere in conceptual combinations as a consequence of their contextual interactions, and provide an illustration of this using an intuitive wave-like diagram. This quantum-conceptual approach gives new life to original prototype theory, without however making it a privileged concept theory, as we explain at the end of our paper. PMID:27065436

Marketing practitioner’s tacit knowledge acquisition using Repertory Grid Technique (RTG)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azmi, Afdhal; Adriman, Ramzi

2018-05-01

The tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts is excellent resources and priceless. It takes into account their experiential, skill, ideas, belief systems, insight and speculation into management decision-making. This expertise is an individual intuitive judgment and personal shortcuts to complete the work efficiently. Tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts is one of best problem solutions in marketing strategy, environmental analysis, product management and partner’s relationship. This paper proposes the acquisition method of tacit knowledge from Marketing practitioner’s using Repertory Grid Technique (RGT). The RGT is a software application for tacit acquisition knowledge to provide a systematic approach to capture and acquire the constructs from an individual. The result shows the understanding of RGT could make TKE and MPE get a good result in capturing and acquiring tacit knowledge of Marketing practitioner’s experts.

OASIS: A GEOGRAPHICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR GROUND-WATER CONTAMINANT MODELING

EPA Science Inventory

Three new software technologies were applied to develop an efficient and easy to use decision support system for ground-water contaminant modeling. Graphical interfaces create a more intuitive and effective form of communication with the computer compared to text-based interfaces...

Uncertainty and equipoise: at interplay between epistemology, decision making and ethics.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-10-01

In recent years, various authors have proposed that the concept of equipoise be abandoned because it conflates the practice of clinical care with clinical research. At the same time, the equipoise opponents acknowledge the necessity of clinical research if there are unresolved uncertainties about the effects of proposed healthcare interventions. As equipoise represents just 1 measure of uncertainty, proposals to abandon equipoise while maintaining a requirement for addressing uncertainties are contradictory and ultimately not valid. As acknowledgment and articulation of uncertainties represent key scientific and moral requirements for human experimentation, the concept of equipoise remains the most useful framework to link the theory of human experimentation with the theory of rational choice. In this article, I show how uncertainty (equipoise) is at the intersection between epistemology, decision making and ethics of clinical research. In particular, I show how our formulation of responses to uncertainties of hoped-for benefits and unknown harms of testing is a function of the way humans cognitively process information. This approach is based on the view that considerations of ethics and rationality cannot be separated. I analyze the response to uncertainties as it relates to the dual-processing theory, which postulates that rational approach to (clinical research) decision making depends both on analytical, deliberative processes embodied in scientific method (system II), and good human intuition (system I). Ultimately, our choices can only become wiser if we understand a close and intertwined relationship between irreducible uncertainty, inevitable errors and unavoidable injustice.

Uncertainty and Equipoise: At Interplay Between Epistemology, Decision-Making and Ethics

PubMed Central

Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2011-01-01

In recent years, various authors have proposed that the concept of equipoise be abandoned since it conflates the practice of clinical care with clinical research. At the same time, the equipoise opponents acknowledge the necessity of clinical research if there are unresolved uncertainties about the effects of proposed healthcare interventions. Since equipoise represents just one measure of uncertainty, proposals to abandon equipoise while maintaining a requirement for addressing uncertainties are contradictory and ultimately not valid. As acknowledgment and articulation of uncertainties represent key scientific and moral requirements for human experimentation, the concept of equipoise remains the most useful framework to link the theory of human experimentation with the theory of rational choice. In this paper, I show how uncertainty (equipoise) is at the intersection between epistemology, decision-making and ethics of clinical research. In particular, I show how our formulation of responses to uncertainties of hoped-for benefits and unknown harms of testing is a function of the way humans cognitively process information. This approach is based on the view that considerations of ethics and rationality cannot be separated. I analyze the response to uncertainties as it relates to the dual-processing theory, which postulates that rational approach to (clinical research) decision-making depends both on analytical, deliberative processes embodied in scientific method (system II) and “good” human intuition (system I). Ultimately, our choices can only become wiser if we understand a close and intertwined relationship between irreducible uncertainty, inevitable errors, and unavoidable injustice. PMID:21817885

Clinical holistic medicine: factors influencing the therapeutic decision-making. From academic knowledge to emotional intelligence and spiritual "crazy" wisdom.

PubMed

Ventegodt, Søren; Kandel, Isack; Merrick, Joav

2007-12-10

Scientific holistic medicine is built on holistic medical theory, on therapeutic and ethical principles. The rationale is that the therapist can take the patient into a state of salutogenesis, or existential healing, using his skills and knowledge. But how ever much we want to make therapy a science it remains partly an art, and the more developed the therapist becomes, the more of his/her decisions will be based on intuition, feeling and even inspiration that is more based on love and human concern and other spiritual motivations than on mental reason and rationality in a simple sense of the word. The provocative and paradoxal medieval western concept of the "truth telling clown", or the eastern concepts of "crazy wisdom" and "holy madness" seems highly relevant here. The problem is how we can ethically justify this kind of highly "irrational" therapeutic behavior in the rational setting of a medical institution. We argue here that holistic therapy has a very high success rate and is doing no harm to the patient, and encourage therapists, psychiatrists, psychologist and other academically trained "helpers" to constantly measure their own success-rate. This paper discusses many of the important factors that influence clinical holistic decision-making. Sexuality could, as many psychoanalysts from Freud to Reich and Searles have believed, be the most healing power that exists and also the most difficult for the mind to comprehend, and thus the most "crazy-wise" tool of therapy.

Does intuition cause cooperation?

PubMed

Verkoeijen, Peter P J L; Bouwmeester, Samantha

2014-01-01

Recently, researchers claimed that people are intuitively inclined to cooperate with reflection causing them to behave selfishly. Empirical support for this claim came from experiments using a 4-player public goods game with a marginal return of 0.5 showing that people contributed more money to a common project when they had to decide quickly (i.e., a decision based on intuition) than when they were instructed to reflect and decide slowly. This intuitive-cooperation effect is of high scientific and practical importance because it argues against a central assumption of traditional economic and evolutionary models. The first experiment of present study was set up to examine the generality of the intuitive-cooperation effect and to further validate the experimental task producing the effect. In Experiment 1, we investigated Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) workers' contributions to a 4-player public goods game with a marginal return of 0.5 while we manipulated the knowledge about the other players' contribution to the public goods game (contribution known vs. contribution unknown), the identity of the other players (humans vs. computers randomly generating contributions) and the time constraint (time pressure/intuition vs. forced delay/reflection). However, the results of Experiment 1 failed to reveal an intuitive-cooperation effect. Furthermore, four subsequent direct replications attempts with AMT workers (Experiments 2a, 2b, 2c and Experiment 3, which was conducted with naïve/inexperienced participants) also failed to demonstrate intuitive-cooperation effects. Taken together, the results of the present study could not corroborate the idea that people are intuitively cooperative, hence suggesting that the theoretical relationship between intuition and cooperation should be further scrutinized.

Does Intuition Cause Cooperation?

PubMed Central

Verkoeijen, Peter P. J. L.; Bouwmeester, Samantha

2014-01-01

Recently, researchers claimed that people are intuitively inclined to cooperate with reflection causing them to behave selfishly. Empirical support for this claim came from experiments using a 4-player public goods game with a marginal return of 0.5 showing that people contributed more money to a common project when they had to decide quickly (i.e., a decision based on intuition) than when they were instructed to reflect and decide slowly. This intuitive-cooperation effect is of high scientific and practical importance because it argues against a central assumption of traditional economic and evolutionary models. The first experiment of present study was set up to examine the generality of the intuitive-cooperation effect and to further validate the experimental task producing the effect. In Experiment 1, we investigated Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) workers' contributions to a 4-player public goods game with a marginal return of 0.5 while we manipulated the knowledge about the other players' contribution to the public goods game (contribution known vs. contribution unknown), the identity of the other players (humans vs. computers randomly generating contributions) and the time constraint (time pressure/intuition vs. forced delay/reflection). However, the results of Experiment 1 failed to reveal an intuitive-cooperation effect. Furthermore, four subsequent direct replications attempts with AMT workers (Experiments 2a, 2b, 2c and Experiment 3, which was conducted with naïve/inexperienced participants) also failed to demonstrate intuitive-cooperation effects. Taken together, the results of the present study could not corroborate the idea that people are intuitively cooperative, hence suggesting that the theoretical relationship between intuition and cooperation should be further scrutinized. PMID:24801381

Intuitive Face Judgments Rely on Holistic Eye Movement Pattern

PubMed Central

Mega, Laura F.; Volz, Kirsten G.

2017-01-01

Non-verbal signals such as facial expressions are of paramount importance for social encounters. Their perception predominantly occurs without conscious awareness and is effortlessly integrated into social interactions. In other words, face perception is intuitive. Contrary to classical intuition tasks, this work investigates intuitive processes in the realm of every-day type social judgments. Two differently instructed groups of participants judged the authenticity of emotional facial expressions, while their eye movements were recorded: an ‘intuitive group,’ instructed to rely on their “gut feeling” for the authenticity judgments, and a ‘deliberative group,’ instructed to make their judgments after careful analysis of the face. Pixel-wise statistical maps of the resulting eye movements revealed a differential viewing pattern, wherein the intuitive judgments relied on fewer, longer and more centrally located fixations. These markers have been associated with a global/holistic viewing strategy. The holistic pattern of intuitive face judgments is in line with evidence showing that intuition is related to processing the “gestalt” of an object, rather than focusing on details. Our work thereby provides further evidence that intuitive processes are characterized by holistic perception, in an understudied and real world domain of intuition research. PMID:28676773

Intuitive Face Judgments Rely on Holistic Eye Movement Pattern.

PubMed

Mega, Laura F; Volz, Kirsten G

2017-01-01

Non-verbal signals such as facial expressions are of paramount importance for social encounters. Their perception predominantly occurs without conscious awareness and is effortlessly integrated into social interactions. In other words, face perception is intuitive. Contrary to classical intuition tasks, this work investigates intuitive processes in the realm of every-day type social judgments. Two differently instructed groups of participants judged the authenticity of emotional facial expressions, while their eye movements were recorded: an 'intuitive group,' instructed to rely on their "gut feeling" for the authenticity judgments, and a 'deliberative group,' instructed to make their judgments after careful analysis of the face. Pixel-wise statistical maps of the resulting eye movements revealed a differential viewing pattern, wherein the intuitive judgments relied on fewer, longer and more centrally located fixations. These markers have been associated with a global/holistic viewing strategy. The holistic pattern of intuitive face judgments is in line with evidence showing that intuition is related to processing the "gestalt" of an object, rather than focusing on details. Our work thereby provides further evidence that intuitive processes are characterized by holistic perception, in an understudied and real world domain of intuition research.

Choosing homebirth--the women's perspective.

PubMed

Jouhki, Maija-Riitta

2012-12-01

To describe the decision-making process and birth experience of ten women in Finland who had planned to have a home birth. The data were collected by means of in-depth interviews in 2008 and were analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Several reasons led to a decision to give birth at home. The main reasons were: previous birth experience, considering birth to be a natural process, increased autonomy, the home environment, intuition, the desire to choose the birth attendant, mistrust of the medical establishment and the opportunity to have the baby's siblings present at the birth. There were inhibiting and facilitating factors which influenced the women's decisions, and before making their decisions women sought out information about home birth. Home birth was an extremely positive experience and women highlighted their desire for the development of parent education to empower women in their preparations for birth. Full autonomy, the participation of family members, trust in one's ability to give birth and the absence of pharmacological pain relief were major contributors to the positive birth experience. The need for empowerment through parent education was highlighted in the interviews. To the women of this study home birth was very positive experience in which the autonomy was the important factor. According to this study maternity care services do not respond to women's individual wishes and services should be offer more alternatives and should be more empowering. Copyright © 2011 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated control of hierarchical systems using value-driven methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, George E.; Burke, Thomas E.

1990-01-01

An introduction is given to the Value-driven methodology, which has been successfully applied to solve a variety of difficult decision, control, and optimization problems. Many real-world decision processes (e.g., those encountered in scheduling, allocation, and command and control) involve a hierarchy of complex planning considerations. For such problems it is virtually impossible to define a fixed set of rules that will operate satisfactorily over the full range of probable contingencies. Decision Science Applications' value-driven methodology offers a systematic way of automating the intuitive, common-sense approach used by human planners. The inherent responsiveness of value-driven systems to user-controlled priorities makes them particularly suitable for semi-automated applications in which the user must remain in command of the systems operation. Three examples of the practical application of the approach in the automation of hierarchical decision processes are discussed: the TAC Brawler air-to-air combat simulation is a four-level computerized hierarchy; the autonomous underwater vehicle mission planning system is a three-level control system; and the Space Station Freedom electrical power control and scheduling system is designed as a two-level hierarchy. The methodology is compared with rule-based systems and with other more widely-known optimization techniques.

RAVEL: retrieval and visualization in ELectronic health records.

PubMed

Thiessard, Frantz; Mougin, Fleur; Diallo, Gayo; Jouhet, Vianney; Cossin, Sébastien; Garcelon, Nicolas; Campillo, Boris; Jouini, Wassim; Grosjean, Julien; Massari, Philippe; Griffon, Nicolas; Dupuch, Marie; Tayalati, Fayssal; Dugas, Edwige; Balvet, Antonio; Grabar, Natalia; Pereira, Suzanne; Frandji, Bruno; Darmoni, Stefan; Cuggia, Marc

2012-01-01

Because of the ever-increasing amount of information in patients' EHRs, healthcare professionals may face difficulties for making diagnoses and/or therapeutic decisions. Moreover, patients may misunderstand their health status. These medical practitioners need effective tools to locate in real time relevant elements within the patients' EHR and visualize them according to synthetic and intuitive presentation models. The RAVEL project aims at achieving this goal by performing a high profile industrial research and development program on the EHR considering the following areas: (i) semantic indexing, (ii) information retrieval, and (iii) data visualization. The RAVEL project is expected to implement a generic, loosely coupled to data sources prototype so that it can be transposed into different university hospitals information systems.

A parametric LQ approach to multiobjective control system design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kyr, Douglas E.; Buchner, Marc

1988-01-01

The synthesis of a constant parameter output feedback control law of constrained structure is set in a multiple objective linear quadratic regulator (MOLQR) framework. The use of intuitive objective functions such as model-following ability and closed-loop trajectory sensitivity, allow multiple objective decision making techniques, such as the surrogate worth tradeoff method, to be applied. For the continuous-time deterministic problem with an infinite time horizon, dynamic compensators as well as static output feedback controllers can be synthesized using a descent Anderson-Moore algorithm modified to impose linear equality constraints on the feedback gains by moving in feasible directions. Results of three different examples are presented, including a unique reformulation of the sensitivity reduction problem.

'We hold these truths to be self-evident': deconstructing 'evidence-based' medical practice.

PubMed

Devisch, Ignaas; Murray, Stuart J

2009-12-01

Rationale, aims and objectives Evidence-based medicine (EBM) claims to be based on 'evidence', rather than 'intuition'. However, EBM's fundamental distinction between quantitative 'evidence' and qualitative 'intuition' is not self-evident. The meaning of 'evidence' is unclear and no studies of quality exist to demonstrate the superiority of EBM in health care settings. This paper argues that, despite itself, EBM holds out only the illusion of conclusive scientific rigour for clinical decision making, and that EBM ultimately is unable to fulfil its own structural criteria for 'evidence'. Methods Our deconstructive analysis of EBM draws on the work of the French philosopher, Jacques Derrida. Deconstruction works in the name of justice to lay bare, to expose what has been hidden from view. In plain language, we deconstruct EBM's paradigm of 'evidence', the randomized controlled trial (RCT), to demonstrate that there cannot be incontrovertible evidence for EBM as such. We argue that EBM therefore 'auto-deconstructs' its own paradigm, and that medical practitioners, policymakers and patients alike ought to be aware of this failure within EBM itself. Results EBM's strict distinction between admissible evidence (based on RCTs) and other supposedly inadmissible evidence is not itself based on evidence, but rather, on intuition. In other words, according to EBM's own logic, there can be no 'evidentiary' basis for its distinction between admissible and inadmissible evidence. Ultimately, to uphold this fundamental distinction, EBM must seek recourse in (bio)political ideology and an epistemology akin to faith.

Do Parties' Ideological Positions Matter? The Effects of Alienation and Indifference on Individuals' Turnout Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melton, James Douglas

2009-01-01

Both spatial theories of voting and our intuitions lead us to expect that political parties' ideological positions should affect individuals' turnout decisions. Contrary to these expectations, existing research finds that neither feelings of alienation--that no party adequately represents an individual's ideological position--nor…

Persistence of the Intuitive Conception of Living Things in Adolescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babai, Reuven; Sekal, Rachel; Stavy, Ruth

2010-02-01

This study investigated whether intuitive, naive conceptions of "living things" based on objects' mobility (movement = alive) persist into adolescence and affect 10th graders' accuracy of responses and reaction times during object classification. Most of the 58 students classified the test objects correctly as living/nonliving, yet they demonstrated significantly longer reaction times for classifying plants compared to animals and for classifying dynamic objects compared to static inanimate objects. Findings indicated that, despite prior learning in biology, the intuitive conception of living things persists up to age 15-16 years, affecting related reasoning processes. Consideration of these findings may help educators in their decisions about the nature of examples they use in their classrooms.

A Simplified Version of the Fuzzy Decision Method and its Comparison with the Paraconsistent Decision Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Carvalho, Fábio Romeu; Abe, Jair Minoro

2010-11-01

Two recent non-classical logics have been used to make decision: fuzzy logic and paraconsistent annotated evidential logic Et. In this paper we present a simplified version of the fuzzy decision method and its comparison with the paraconsistent one. Paraconsistent annotated evidential logic Et, introduced by Da Costa, Vago and Subrahmanian (1991), is capable of handling uncertain and contradictory data without becoming trivial. It has been used in many applications such as information technology, robotics, artificial intelligence, production engineering, decision making etc. Intuitively, one Et logic formula is type p(a, b), in which a and b belong to [0, 1] (real interval) and represent respectively the degree of favorable evidence (or degree of belief) and the degree of contrary evidence (or degree of disbelief) found in p. The set of all pairs (a; b), called annotations, when plotted, form the Cartesian Unitary Square (CUS). This set, containing a similar order relation of real number, comprises a network, called lattice of the annotations. Fuzzy logic was introduced by Zadeh (1965). It tries to systematize the knowledge study, searching mainly to study the fuzzy knowledge (you don't know what it means) and distinguish it from the imprecise one (you know what it means, but you don't know its exact value). This logic is similar to paraconsistent annotated one, since it attributes a numeric value (only one, not two values) to each proposition (then we can say that it is an one-valued logic). This number translates the intensity (the degree) with which the preposition is true. Let's X a set and A, a subset of X, identified by the function f(x). For each element x∈X, you have y = f(x)∈[0, 1]. The number y is called degree of pertinence of x in A. Decision making theories based on these logics have shown to be powerful in many aspects regarding more traditional methods, like the one based on Statistics. In this paper we present a first study for a simplified version of decision making theory based on Fuzzy Logic (SVMFD) and a comparison with the Paraconsistent Decision Method (PDM) based on Paraconsistent Annotated Evidential Logic Eτ, already presented and summarized in this paper. An example showing the two methods is presented in the paper, as well as a comparison between them.

Representing causal knowledge in environmental policy interventions: Advantages and opportunities for qualitative influence diagram applications.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Dyson, Brian E; Benson, William H

2018-05-01

This article develops and explores a methodology for using qualitative influence diagrams in environmental policy and management to support decision-making efforts that minimize risk and increase resiliency. Influence diagrams are representations of the conditional aspects of a problem domain. Their graphical properties are useful for structuring causal knowledge relevant to policy interventions and can be used to enhance inference and inclusivity of multiple viewpoints. Qualitative components of influence diagrams are beneficial tools for identifying and examining the interactions among the critical variables in complex policy development and implementation. Policy interventions on social-environmental systems can be intuitively diagrammed for representing knowledge of critical relationships among economic, environmental, and social attributes. Examples relevant to coastal resiliency issues in the US Gulf Coast region are developed to illustrate model structures for developing qualitative influence diagrams useful for clarifying important policy intervention issues and enhancing transparency in decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:381-394. Published 2018. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2018. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

PubMed

Thompson, Robin N; Gilligan, Christopher A; Cunniffe, Nik J

2018-02-01

The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted more precisely. There is also the chance that the outbreak might die out without any intervention whatsoever, making prophylactic control unnecessary. Optimal decision-making involves continuously balancing these potential benefits of waiting against the possible costs of further spread. We introduce a generic, extensible data-driven algorithm based on parameter estimation and outbreak simulation for making decisions in real-time concerning when and how to control an invading pathogen. The Control Smart Algorithm (CSA) resolves the trade-off between the competing advantages of controlling as soon as possible and controlling later when more information has become available. We show-using a generic mathematical model representing the transmission of a pathogen of agricultural animals or plants through a population of farms or fields-how the CSA allows the timing and level of deployment of vaccination or chemical control to be optimised. In particular, the algorithm outperforms simpler strategies such as intervening when the outbreak size reaches a pre-specified threshold, or controlling when the outbreak has persisted for a threshold length of time. This remains the case even if the simpler methods are fully optimised in advance. Our work highlights the potential benefits of giving careful consideration to the question of when to start disease management during emerging outbreaks, and provides a concrete framework to allow policy-makers to make this decision.

Phenomenological theory of collective decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zafeiris, Anna; Koman, Zsombor; Mones, Enys; Vicsek, Tamás

2017-08-01

An essential task of groups is to provide efficient solutions for the complex problems they face. Indeed, considerable efforts have been devoted to the question of collective decision-making related to problems involving a single dominant feature. Here we introduce a quantitative formalism for finding the optimal distribution of the group members' competences in the more typical case when the underlying problem is complex, i.e., multidimensional. Thus, we consider teams that are aiming at obtaining the best possible answer to a problem having a number of independent sub-problems. Our approach is based on a generic scheme for the process of evaluating the proposed solutions (i.e., negotiation). We demonstrate that the best performing groups have at least one specialist for each sub-problem - but a far less intuitive result is that finding the optimal solution by the interacting group members requires that the specialists also have some insight into the sub-problems beyond their unique field(s). We present empirical results obtained by using a large-scale database of citations being in good agreement with the above theory. The framework we have developed can easily be adapted to a variety of realistic situations since taking into account the weights of the sub-problems, the opinions or the relations of the group is straightforward. Consequently, our method can be used in several contexts, especially when the optimal composition of a group of decision-makers is designed.

The Role of Intuition in the Generation and Evaluation Stages of Creativity

PubMed Central

Pétervári, Judit; Osman, Magda; Bhattacharya, Joydeep

2016-01-01

Both intuition and creativity are associated with knowledge creation, yet a clear link between them has not been adequately established. First, the available empirical evidence for an underlying relationship between intuition and creativity is sparse in nature. Further, this evidence is arguable as the concepts are diversely operationalized and the measures adopted are often not validated sufficiently. Combined, these issues make the findings from various studies examining the link between intuition and creativity difficult to replicate. Nevertheless, the role of intuition in creativity should not be neglected as it is often reported to be a core component of the idea generation process, which in conjunction with idea evaluation are crucial phases of creative cognition. We review the prior research findings in respect of idea generation and idea evaluation from the view that intuition can be construed as the gradual accumulation of cues to coherence. Thus, we summarize the literature on what role intuitive processes play in the main stages of the creative problem-solving process and outline a conceptual framework of the interaction between intuition and creativity. Finally, we discuss the main challenges of measuring intuition as well as possible directions for future research. PMID:27703439

Web-Based Tools for Data Visualization and Decision Support for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, N.; Nelson, J.; Pulla, S. T.; Ames, D. P.; Souffront, M.; David, C. H.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gatlin, P. N.; Matin, M. A.

2017-12-01

The objective of the NASA SERVIR project is to assist developing countries in using information provided by Earth observing satellites to assess and manage climate risks, land use, and water resources. We present a collection of web apps that integrate earth observations and in situ data to facilitate deployment of data and water resources models as decision-making tools in support of this effort. The interactive nature of web apps makes this an excellent medium for creating decision support tools that harness cutting edge modeling techniques. Thin client apps hosted in a cloud portal eliminates the need for the decision makers to procure and maintain the high performance hardware required by the models, deal with issues related to software installation and platform incompatibilities, or monitor and install software updates, a problem that is exacerbated for many of the regional SERVIR hubs where both financial and technical capacity may be limited. All that is needed to use the system is an Internet connection and a web browser. We take advantage of these technologies to develop tools which can be centrally maintained but openly accessible. Advanced mapping and visualization make results intuitive and information derived actionable. We also take advantage of the emerging standards for sharing water information across the web using the OGC and WMO approved WaterML standards. This makes our tools interoperable and extensible via application programming interfaces (APIs) so that tools and data from other projects can both consume and share the tools developed in our project. Our approach enables the integration of multiple types of data and models, thus facilitating collaboration between science teams in SERVIR. The apps developed thus far by our team process time-varying netCDF files from Earth observations and large-scale computer simulations and allow visualization and exploration via raster animation and extraction of time series at selected points and/or regions.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

Clinical Holistic Medicine: Factors Influencing The Therapeutic Decision-Making. From Academic Knowledge to Emotional Intelligence and Spiritual “Crazy” Wisdom

PubMed Central

Ventegodt, Søren; Kandel, Isack; Merrick, Joav

2007-01-01

Scientific holistic medicine is built on holistic medical theory, on therapeutic and ethical principles. The rationale is that the therapist can take the patient into a state of salutogenesis, or existential healing, using his skills and knowledge. But how ever much we want to make therapy a science it remains partly an art, and the more developed the therapist becomes, the more of his/her decisions will be based on intuition, feeling and even inspiration that is more based on love and human concern and other spiritual motivations than on mental reason and rationality in a simple sense of the word. The provocative and paradoxal medieval western concept of the “truth telling clown”, or the eastern concepts of “crazy wisdom” and “holy madness” seems highly relevant here. The problem is how we can ethically justify this kind of highly “irrational” therapeutic behavior in the rational setting of a medical institution. We argue here that holistic therapy has a very high success rate and is doing no harm to the patient, and encourage therapists, psychiatrists, psychologist and other academically trained “helpers” to constantly measure their own success-rate. This paper discusses many of the important factors that influence clinical holistic decision-making. Sexuality could, as many psychoanalysts from Freud to Reich and Searles have believed, be the most healing power that exists and also the most difficult for the mind to comprehend, and thus the most “crazy-wise” tool of therapy. PMID:18167609

Advancing clinical decision support using lessons from outside of healthcare: an interdisciplinary systematic review.

PubMed

Wu, Helen W; Davis, Paul K; Bell, Douglas S

2012-08-17

Greater use of computerized decision support (DS) systems could address continuing safety and quality problems in healthcare, but the healthcare field has struggled to implement DS technology. This study surveys DS experience across multiple non-healthcare disciplines for new insights that are generalizable to healthcare provider decisions. In particular, it sought design principles and lessons learned from the other disciplines that could inform efforts to accelerate the adoption of clinical decision support (CDS). Our systematic review drew broadly from non-healthcare databases in the basic sciences, social sciences, humanities, engineering, business, and defense: PsychINFO, BusinessSource Premier, Social Sciences Abstracts, Web of Science, and Defense Technical Information Center. Because our interest was in DS that could apply to clinical decisions, we selected articles that (1) provided a review, overview, discussion of lessons learned, or an evaluation of design or implementation aspects of DS within a non-healthcare discipline and (2) involved an element of human judgment at the individual level, as opposed to decisions that can be fully automated or that are made at the organizational level. Clinical decisions share some similarities with decisions made by military commanders, business managers, and other leaders: they involve assessing new situations and choosing courses of action with major consequences, under time pressure, and with incomplete information. We identified seven high-level DS system design features from the non-healthcare literature that could be applied to CDS: providing broad, system-level perspectives; customizing interfaces to specific users and roles; making the DS reasoning transparent; presenting data effectively; generating multiple scenarios covering disparate outcomes (e.g., effective; effective with side effects; ineffective); allowing for contingent adaptations; and facilitating collaboration. The article provides examples of each feature. The DS literature also emphasizes the importance of organizational culture and training in implementation success. The literature contrasts "rational-analytic" vs. "naturalistic-intuitive" decision-making styles, but the best approach is often a balanced approach that combines both styles. It is also important for DS systems to enable exploration of multiple assumptions, and incorporation of new information in response to changing circumstances. Complex, high-level decision-making has common features across disciplines as seemingly disparate as defense, business, and healthcare. National efforts to advance the health information technology agenda through broader CDS adoption could benefit by applying the DS principles identified in this review.

How Expert Clinicians Intuitively Recognize a Medical Diagnosis.

PubMed

Brush, John E; Sherbino, Jonathan; Norman, Geoffrey R

2017-06-01

Research has shown that expert clinicians make a medical diagnosis through a process of hypothesis generation and verification. Experts begin the diagnostic process by generating a list of diagnostic hypotheses using intuitive, nonanalytic reasoning. Analytic reasoning then allows the clinician to test and verify or reject each hypothesis, leading to a diagnostic conclusion. In this article, we focus on the initial step of hypothesis generation and review how expert clinicians use experiential knowledge to intuitively recognize a medical diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Making framing of uncertainty in water management practice explicit by using a participant-structured approach.

PubMed

Isendahl, Nicola; Dewulf, Art; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

2010-01-01

By now, the need for addressing uncertainty in the management of water resources is widely recognized, yet there is little expertise and experience how to effectively deal with uncertainty in practice. Uncertainties in water management practice so far are mostly dealt with intuitively or based on experience. That way decisions can be quickly taken but analytic processes of deliberate reasoning are bypassed. To meet the desire of practitioners for better guidance and tools how to deal with uncertainty more practice-oriented systematic approaches are needed. For that purpose we consider it important to understand how practitioners frame uncertainties. In this paper we present an approach where water managers developed criteria of relevance to understand and address uncertainties. The empirical research took place in the Doñana region of the Guadalquivir estuary in southern Spain making use of the method of card sorting. Through the card sorting exercise a broad range of criteria to make sense of and describe uncertainties was produced by different subgroups, which were then merged into a shared list of criteria. That way framing differences were made explicit and communication on uncertainty and on framing differences was enhanced. In that, the present approach constitutes a first step to enabling reframing and overcoming framing differences, which are important features on the way to robust decision-making. Moreover, the elaborated criteria build a basis for the development of more structured approaches to deal with uncertainties in water management practice. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intuitive visual impressions (cogs) for identifying clusters of diversity within potato species

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One of the basic research activities of genebanks is to partition stocks into groups that facilitate the efficient preservation and evaluation of the full range of useful phenotype diversity. We sought to test the usefulness of making of infra-specific groups by replicated rapid visual intuitive imp...

US Army Executive Development

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-05-01

Executive Education," Business Week, 8 March 1976, p. 79. 18. RETO, p. 111-5. 19. Agor , Weston H ., "Tomorrow’s Intuitive Leader," The Futurist, August...complex situations in which tomorrow’s leaders will need to make deci- sions, Weston Agor believes intuitive abilities will be increasingly important

Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tversky, Amos; Kahneman, Daniel

1983-01-01

Judgments under uncertainty are often mediated by intuitive heuristics that are not bound by the conjunction rule of probability. Representativeness and availability heuristics can make a conjunction appear more probable than one of its constituents. Alternative interpretations of this conjunction fallacy are discussed and attempts to combat it…

The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice.

PubMed

Powell, Derek; Yu, Jingqi; DeWolf, Melissa; Holyoak, Keith J

2017-10-01

Social learning-the ability to learn from observing the decisions of other people and the outcomes of those decisions-is fundamental to human evolutionary and cultural success. The Internet now provides social evidence on an unprecedented scale. However, properly utilizing this evidence requires a capacity for statistical inference. We examined how people's interpretation of online review scores is influenced by the numbers of reviews-a potential indicator both of an item's popularity and of the precision of the average review score. Our task was designed to pit statistical information against social information. We modeled the behavior of an "intuitive statistician" using empirical prior information from millions of reviews posted on Amazon.com and then compared the model's predictions with the behavior of experimental participants. Under certain conditions, people preferred a product with more reviews to one with fewer reviews even though the statistical model indicated that the latter was likely to be of higher quality than the former. Overall, participants' judgments suggested that they failed to make meaningful statistical inferences.

Moral Reasoning among HEC Members: An Empirical Evaluation of the Relationship of Theory and Practice in Clinical Ethics Consultation.

PubMed

Wasserman, Jason Adam; Stevenson, Shannon Lindsey; Claxton, Cassandra; Krug, Ernest F

2015-01-01

In light of the ongoing development and implementation of core competencies in bioethics, it is important to proceed with a clear sense of how bioethics knowledge is utilized in the functioning of hospital ethics committees (HECs). Without such an understanding, we risk building a costly edifice on a foundation that is ambiguous at best. This article examines the empirical relationship between traditional paradigms of bioethics theory and actual decision making by HEC members using survey data from HEC members. The assumption underlying the standardization of qualifications and corresponding call for increased education of HEC members is that they will base imminent case decisions on inculcated knowledge. Our data suggest, however, that HEC members first decide intuitively and then look for justification, thereby highlighting the need to re-examine the pedagogical processes of ethics education in the process of standardizing and improving competencies. Copyright 2015 The Journal of Clinical Ethics. All rights reserved.

Statistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Court

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Edward D.; Broedersz, Chase P.; Bialek, William

2015-07-01

We build simple models for the distribution of voting patterns in a group, using the Supreme Court of the United States as an example. The maximum entropy model consistent with the observed pairwise correlations among justices' votes, an Ising spin glass, agrees quantitatively with the data. While all correlations (perhaps surprisingly) are positive, the effective pairwise interactions in the spin glass model have both signs, recovering the intuition that ideologically opposite justices negatively influence each another. Despite the competing interactions, a strong tendency toward unanimity emerges from the model, organizing the voting patterns in a relatively simple "energy landscape." Besides unanimity, other energy minima in this landscape, or maxima in probability, correspond to prototypical voting states, such as the ideological split or a tightly correlated, conservative core. The model correctly predicts the correlation of justices with the majority and gives us a measure of their influence on the majority decision. These results suggest that simple models, grounded in statistical physics, can capture essential features of collective decision making quantitatively, even in a complex political context.

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool.

PubMed

Williams, Alison; Lansey, Kevin; Washburne, James

2009-01-01

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.

Sex and racial differences in preference for a caring morality in a corporate environment that promotes diversity and equal opportunity.

PubMed

Jones, Nona J

2002-10-01

This study investigated the caring moral perspective of managers in a corporation recognized as being a champion of promoting diversity and equal opportunity. Caring is described as a morality of responsibility and relationship, a sensitivity to the needs of persons. The study was based on the prediction that the attachment and caring shown elsewhere to be characteristic of the morality of females would be characteristic of all managers, regardless of sex or race in this kind of corporate environment. 121 male and female, African-American and Euro-American managers responded to a survey using three subscales of a Caring Morality Inventory: caring orientation, use of intuition and feeling to make a judgment, and concern with others in decision-making. Analysis showed female managers, regardless of race, scored significantly higher on the Caring Morality scale than the male managers, supporting other findings of sex differences in caring moral perspective and suggesting that working for a company actively promoting diversity and equal opportunity does not cancel out these differences. In addition, for this study it was assumed that, although African Americans, in general, may have been sensitized to lean more toward a caring morality, any racial differences in caring morality would be cancelled out by the fact that all of the managers work for the same prodiversity and, by assumption, more sensitive company. The Euro-American managers, regardless of sex, actually scored higher on the Caring Morality scale than did the African-American managers, with the difference being attributable solely to the greater tendency of the Euro-American managers to use intuition and feeling to make a judgment.

Turkish Preservice Science Teachers' Informal Reasoning Regarding Socioscientific Issues and the Factors Influencing Their Informal Reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topçu, Mustafa Sami; Yılmaz-Tüzün, Özgül; Sadler, Troy D.

2011-06-01

The purpose of the study is to explore Turkish preservice science teachers' informal reasoning regarding socioscientific issues and the factors influencing their informal reasoning. The researchers engaged 39 preservice science teachers in informal reasoning interview and moral decision-making interview protocols. Of the seven socioscientific issues, three issues were related to gene therapy, another three were related to human cloning, and one was related to global warming. The data were analyzed using an interpretive qualitative research approach. The characteristic of informal reasoning was determined as multidimensional, and the patterns of informal reasoning emerged as rationalistic, emotive, and intuitive reasoning. The factors influencing informal reasoning were: personal experiences, social considerations, moral-ethical considerations, and technological concerns.

Determining Training Device Requirements in Army Aviation Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poumade, M. L.

1984-01-01

A decision making methodology which applies the systems approach to the training problem is discussed. Training is viewed as a total system instead of a collection of individual devices and unrelated techniques. The core of the methodology is the use of optimization techniques such as the transportation algorithm and multiobjective goal programming with training task and training device specific data. The role of computers, especially automated data bases and computer simulation models, in the development of training programs is also discussed. The approach can provide significant training enhancement and cost savings over the more traditional, intuitive form of training development and device requirements process. While given from an aviation perspective, the methodology is equally applicable to other training development efforts.

Training Emotion Cultivates Morality: How Loving-Kindness Meditation Hones Compassion and Increases Prosocial Behavior.

PubMed

Bankard, Joseph

2015-12-01

Traditional moral philosophy has long focused on rationality, principled thinking, and good old-fashioned willpower, but recent evidence strongly suggests that moral judgments and prosocial behavior are more heavily influenced by emotion and intuition. As the evidence mounts, rational traditions emphasizing deliberative analysis and conscious decision making are called into question. The first section highlights some compelling evidence supporting the primacy of affective states in motivating moral judgments and behavior. The real challenge is finding a way to align intuition with desired behavior. In cool reflective states, one may desire to be a kind and loving person. But when it is time to act, the moment is often accompanied by strong affect-laden intuitions. I argue that if affective states are the primary motivators of behavior, then moral sentiments must be trained through habituation in order to increase prosocial behavior. The second section provides empirical evidence linking emotional training with increased prosociality. To highlight this connection, focus is placed on the relationship between habitual meditation training, compassion, and prosocial behavior. Recent studies by Antoine Lutz, Richard Davidson, Susanne Leiberg, and others show that various meditation practices can dramatically affect the human person at various levels, i.e., increased physical health, neural restructuring, regulation and development of emotions, and increased helping behavior, to name a few. The current article focuses on the impact the habit of loving-kindness meditation (LKM) has on compassion and prosocial behavior. Recent studies strongly support the conclusion that LKM training hones compassion and ultimately leads to an increase in compassionate behavior.

What neuroscience can tell about intuitive processes in the context of perceptual discovery.

PubMed

Volz, Kirsten G; von Cramon, D Yves

2006-12-01

According to the Oxford English Dictionary, intuition is "the ability to understand or know something immediately, without conscious reasoning." Most people would agree that intuitive responses appear as ideas or feelings that subsequently guide our thoughts and behaviors. It is proposed that people continuously, without conscious attention, recognize patterns in the stream of sensations that impinge upon them. What exactly is being recognized is not clear yet, but we assume that people detect potential content based on only a few aspects of the input (i.e., the gist). The result is a vague perception of coherence which is not explicitly describable but instead embodied in a "gut feeling" or an initial guess, which subsequently biases thought and inquiry. To approach the nature of intuitive processes, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging when participants were working at a modified version of the Waterloo Gestalt Closure Task. Starting from our conceptualization that intuition involves an informed judgment in the context of discovery, we expected activation within the median orbito-frontal cortex (OFC), as this area receives input from all sensory modalities and has been shown to be crucially involved in emotionally driven decisions. Results from a direct contrast between intuitive and nonintuitive judgments, as well as from a parametric analysis, revealed the median OFC, the lateral portion of the amygdala, anterior insula, and ventral occipito-temporal regions to be activated. Based on these findings, we suggest our definition of intuition to be promising and a good starting point for future research on intuitive processes.

Clinical education and clinical evaluation of respiratory therapy students.

PubMed

Cullen, Deborah L

2005-09-01

Different blends of knowledge, decision making, problem solving,professional behaviors, values, and technical skills are necessary in the changing health care environments in which respiratory therapists practice. Frequently, novice students are expected to perform quickly and efficiently,and it may be forgotten that students are still learning and mastering the foundation pieces of practice. Clinical educators take on the responsibility of student development in addition to overseeing patient care. Normally,these volunteer instructors are role models for respiratory therapy students. The characteristic of initiative when demonstrated by a beginning student is attractive to the clinical instructor, promotes sharing of experiences, and may evolve into a mentor-protege relationship. Some clinical instructors may be underprepared to teach and are uncomfortable with student evaluation. Respiratory therapy facilities in conjunction with academic institutions may consider sponsoring ongoing programs for clinical teachers. Teaching and learning in the clinical environment is more than demonstration of skills and knowledge. Furthermore, it can be debated whether the memorization of facts or of the steps of a skill is more valuable than competency in problem solving, clinical reasoning, or information retrieval. New knowledge is built within a context and is further integrated when grounded by experience. Development of "prediction in practice" or the anticipation of the next necessary actions may be worth integrating into the instructional toolbox. Intuition has been defined as an "understanding without a rationale". This definition separates intuition from rational decision making and presents intuition as a type of innate ability. Reflection when guided by clinical instructors can help deepen critical thinking, as will Socratic questioning on a regular basis. Most clinical staff can agree on the performance of an incompetent student, but discrimination of the levels of competence is more challenging. Observations allow the assessor to obtain the data necessary to evaluate performance, followed by assessment, which denotes a judgment made on the basis of an observation of events. Performance assessment should have stability and consistency, measure what is intended to be measured, and truly determine competence. In contrast, reflective analysis has been shown to be successful for clinical evaluation, thus departing from strict competency and product-based assessment. Students yearn to become clinically knowledgeable, and their enthusiasm should be fostered. An interest in clinical practice is the primary reason individuals enroll in respiratory therapy education programs. Educators,managers, and staff should assure that students experience an appropriate, rich, and diverse clinical curriculum that with practice develops clinical judgment, reasoning, and reflection on practice.

Common-sense chemistry: The use of assumptions and heuristics in problem solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maeyer, Jenine Rachel

Students experience difficulty learning and understanding chemistry at higher levels, often because of cognitive biases stemming from common sense reasoning constraints. These constraints can be divided into two categories: assumptions (beliefs held about the world around us) and heuristics (the reasoning strategies or rules used to build predictions and make decisions). A better understanding and characterization of these constraints are of central importance in the development of curriculum and teaching strategies that better support student learning in science. It was the overall goal of this thesis to investigate student reasoning in chemistry, specifically to better understand and characterize the assumptions and heuristics used by undergraduate chemistry students. To achieve this, two mixed-methods studies were conducted, each with quantitative data collected using a questionnaire and qualitative data gathered through semi-structured interviews. The first project investigated the reasoning heuristics used when ranking chemical substances based on the relative value of a physical or chemical property, while the second study characterized the assumptions and heuristics used when making predictions about the relative likelihood of different types of chemical processes. Our results revealed that heuristics for cue selection and decision-making played a significant role in the construction of answers during the interviews. Many study participants relied frequently on one or more of the following heuristics to make their decisions: recognition, representativeness, one-reason decision-making, and arbitrary trend. These heuristics allowed students to generate answers in the absence of requisite knowledge, but often led students astray. When characterizing assumptions, our results indicate that students relied on intuitive, spurious, and valid assumptions about the nature of chemical substances and processes in building their responses. In particular, many interviewees seemed to view chemical reactions as macroscopic reassembling processes where favorability was related to the perceived ease with which reactants broke apart or products formed. Students also expressed spurious chemical assumptions based on the misinterpretation and overgeneralization of periodicity and electronegativity. Our findings suggest the need to create more opportunities for college chemistry students to monitor their thinking, develop and apply analytical ways of reasoning, and evaluate the effectiveness of shortcut reasoning procedures in different contexts.

Applying PRECEDE-PROCEED to Develop an Intuitive Eating Nondieting Approach to Weight Management Pilot Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cole, Renee E.; Horacek, Tanya

2009-01-01

Objective: To describe the use of a consolidated version of the PRECEDE-PROCEED participatory program planning model to collaboratively design an intuitive eating program with Fort Drum military spouses tailored to their readiness to reject the dieting mentality and make healthful lifestyle modifications. Design: A consolidated version of…

Text Simplification and Comprehensible Input: A Case for an Intuitive Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crossley, Scott A.; Allen, David; McNamara, Danielle S.

2012-01-01

Texts are routinely simplified to make them more comprehensible for second language learners. However, the effects of simplification upon the linguistic features of texts remain largely unexplored. Here we examine the effects of one type of text simplification: intuitive text simplification. We use the computational tool, Coh-Metrix, to examine…

The framing effect and skin conductance responses.

PubMed

Ring, Patrick

2015-01-01

Individuals often rely on simple heuristics when they face complex choice situations under uncertainty. Traditionally, it has been proposed that cognitive processes are the main driver to evaluate different choice options and to finally reach a decision. Growing evidence, however, highlights a strong interrelation between judgment and decision-making (JDM) on the one hand, and emotional processes on the other hand. This also seems to apply to judgmental heuristics, i.e., decision processes that are typically considered to be fast and intuitive. In this study, participants are exposed to different probabilities of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. Information about electric shock probabilities is either positively or negatively framed. Integrated skin conductance responses (ISCRs) while waiting for electric shock realization are used as an indicator for participants' emotional arousal. This measure is compared to objective probabilities. I find evidence for a relation between emotional body reactions measured by ISCRs and the framing effect. Under negative frames, participants show significantly higher ISCRs while waiting for an electric shock to be delivered than under positive frames. This result might contribute to a better understanding of the psychological processes underlying JDM. Further studies are necessary to reveal the causality underlying this finding, i.e., whether emotional processes influence JDM or vice versa.

Heuristic use of perceptual evidence leads to dissociation between performance and metacognitive sensitivity.

PubMed

Maniscalco, Brian; Peters, Megan A K; Lau, Hakwan

2016-04-01

Zylberberg et al. [Zylberberg, Barttfeld, & Sigman (Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience, 6; 79, 2012), Frontiers in Integrative Neuroscience 6:79] found that confidence decisions, but not perceptual decisions, are insensitive to evidence against a selected perceptual choice. We present a signal detection theoretic model to formalize this insight, which gave rise to a counter-intuitive empirical prediction: that depending on the observer's perceptual choice, increasing task performance can be associated with decreasing metacognitive sensitivity (i.e., the trial-by-trial correspondence between confidence and accuracy). The model also provides an explanation as to why metacognitive sensitivity tends to be less than optimal in actual subjects. These predictions were confirmed robustly in a psychophysics experiment. In a second experiment we found that, in at least some subjects, the effects were replicated even under performance feedback designed to encourage optimal behavior. However, some subjects did show improvement under feedback, suggesting the tendency to ignore evidence against a selected perceptual choice may be a heuristic adopted by the perceptual decision-making system, rather than reflecting inherent biological limitations. We present a Bayesian modeling framework that explains why this heuristic strategy may be advantageous in real-world contexts.

Rationality, practice variation and person‐centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis

PubMed Central

Hamm, Robert M.; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-01-01

Abstract Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' ‘reflective equilibrium/considered judgment’. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. PMID:26639018

Should Global Items on Student Rating Scales Be Used for Summative Decisions?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berk, Ronald A.

2013-01-01

One of the simplest indicators of teaching or course effectiveness is student ratings on one or more global items from the entire rating scale. That approach seems intuitively sound and easy to use. Global items have even been recommended by a few researchers to get a quick-read, at-a-glance summary for summative decisions about faculty. The…

A cross-sectional survey assessing factors associated with reading cancer screening information: previous screening behaviour, demographics and decision-making style.

PubMed

Ghanouni, Alex; Renzi, Cristina; Waller, Jo

2017-04-18

There is broad agreement that cancer screening invitees should know the risks and benefits of testing before deciding whether to participate. In organised screening programmes, a primary method of relaying this information is via leaflets provided at the time of invitation. Little is known about why individuals do not engage with this information. This study assessed factors associated with reading information leaflets provided by the three cancer screening programmes in England. A cross-sectional survey asked screening-eligible members of the general population in England about the following predictor variables: uptake of previous screening invitations, demographic characteristics, and 'decision-making styles' (i.e. the extent to which participants tended to make decisions in a way that was avoidant, rational, intuitive, spontaneous, or dependent). The primary outcome measures were the amount of the leaflet that participants reported having read at their most recent invitation, for any of the three programmes for which they were eligible. Associations between these outcomes and predictor variables were assessed using binary or ordinal logistic regression. After exclusions, data from 275, 309, and 556 participants were analysed in relation to the breast, cervical, and bowel screening programmes, respectively. Notable relationships included associations between regularity of screening uptake and reading (more of) the information leaflets for all programmes (e.g. odds ratio: 0.16 for participants who never/very rarely attended breast screening vs. those who always attended previously; p = .009). Higher rational decision-making scores were associated with reading more of the cervical and bowel screening leaflets (OR: 1.13, p < .0005 and OR: 1.11, p = .045, respectively). Information engagement was also higher for White British participants compared with other ethnic groups for breast (OR: 3.28, p = .008) and bowel (OR: 2.58, p = .015) information; an opposite relationship was observed for older participants (OR: 0.96, p = .048; OR: 0.92, p = .029). Interventions that increase screening uptake may also increase subsequent engagement with information. Future research could investigate how to improve engagement at initial invitations. There may also be scope to reduce barriers to accessing non-English information and alternative communication strategies may benefit participants who are less inclined to weigh up advantages and disadvantages as part of their decision-making.

Decomposing intuitive components in a conceptual problem solving task.

PubMed

Reber, Rolf; Ruch-Monachon, Marie-Antoinette; Perrig, Walter J

2007-06-01

Research into intuitive problem solving has shown that objective closeness of participants' hypotheses were closer to the accurate solution than their subjective ratings of closeness. After separating conceptually intuitive problem solving from the solutions of rational incremental tasks and of sudden insight tasks, we replicated this finding by using more precise measures in a conceptual problem-solving task. In a second study, we distinguished performance level, processing style, implicit knowledge and subjective feeling of closeness to the solution within the problem-solving task and examined the relationships of these different components with measures of intelligence and personality. Verbal intelligence correlated with performance level in problem solving, but not with processing style and implicit knowledge. Faith in intuition, openness to experience, and conscientiousness correlated with processing style, but not with implicit knowledge. These findings suggest that one needs to decompose processing style and intuitive components in problem solving to make predictions on effects of intelligence and personality measures.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Human Exposure and Atmospheric Sciences Division (HEASD) conducts research in support of EPA mission to protect human health and the environment. HEASD research program supports G

A failure of conflict to modulate dual-stream processing may underlie the formation and maintenance of delusions.

PubMed

Speechley, W J; Murray, C B; McKay, R M; Munz, M T; Ngan, E T C

2010-03-01

Dual-stream information processing proposes that reasoning is composed of two interacting processes: a fast, intuitive system (Stream 1) and a slower, more logical process (Stream 2). In non-patient controls, divergence of these streams may result in the experience of conflict, modulating decision-making towards Stream 2, and initiating a more thorough examination of the available evidence. In delusional schizophrenia patients, a failure of conflict to modulate decision-making towards Stream 2 may reduce the influence of contradictory evidence, resulting in a failure to correct erroneous beliefs. Delusional schizophrenia patients and non-patient controls completed a deductive reasoning task requiring logical validity judgments of two-part conditional statements. Half of the statements were characterized by a conflict between logical validity (Stream 2) and content believability (Stream 1). Patients were significantly worse than controls in determining the logical validity of both conflict and non-conflict conditional statements. This between groups difference was significantly greater for the conflict condition. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that delusional schizophrenia patients fail to use conflict to modulate towards Stream 2 when the two streams of reasoning arrive at incompatible judgments. This finding provides encouraging preliminary support for the Dual-Stream Modulation Failure model of delusion formation and maintenance. 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Characterizing internet health information seeking strategies by socioeconomic status: a mixed methods approach.

PubMed

Perez, Susan L; Kravitz, Richard L; Bell, Robert A; Chan, Man Shan; Paterniti, Debora A

2016-08-09

The Internet is valuable for those with limited access to health care services because of its low cost and wealth of information. Our objectives were to investigate how the Internet is used to obtain health-related information and how individuals with differing socioeconomic resources navigate it when presented with a health decision. Study participants were recruited from public settings and social service agencies. Participants listened to one of two clinical scenarios - consistent with influenza or bacterial meningitis - and then conducted an Internet search. Screen-capture video software captured the Internet search. Participant Internet search strategies were analyzed and coded for pre- and post-Internet search guess at diagnosis and information seeking patterns. Individuals who did not have a college degree and were recruited from locations offering social services were categorized as "lower socioeconomic status" (SES); the remainder was categorized as "higher SES." Participants were 78 Internet health information seekers, ranging from 21-35 years of age, who experienced barriers to accessing health care services. Lower-SES individuals were more likely to use an intuitive, rather than deliberative, approach to Internet health information seeking. Lower- and higher-SES participants did not differ in the tendency to make diagnostic guesses based on Internet searches. Lower-SES participants were more likely than their higher-SES counterparts to narrow the scope of their search. Our findings suggest that individuals with different levels of socioeconomic status vary in the heuristics and search patterns they rely upon to direct their searches. The influence and use of credible information in the process of making a decision is associated with education and prior experiences with healthcare services. Those with limited resources may be disadvantaged when turning to the Internet to make a health decision.

Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

PubMed

Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

2012-12-01

In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

Brains studying brains: look before you think in vision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhaoping, Li

2016-06-01

Using our own brains to study our brains is extraordinary. For example, in vision this makes us naturally blind to our own blindness, since our impression of seeing our world clearly is consistent with our ignorance of what we do not see. Our brain employs its ‘conscious’ part to reason and make logical deductions using familiar rules and past experience. However, human vision employs many ‘subconscious’ brain parts that follow rules alien to our intuition. Our blindness to our unknown unknowns and our presumptive intuitions easily lead us astray in asking and formulating theoretical questions, as witnessed in many unexpected and counter-intuitive difficulties and failures encountered by generations of scientists. We should therefore pay a more than usual amount of attention and respect to experimental data when studying our brain. I show that this can be productive by reviewing two vision theories that have provided testable predictions and surprising insights.

Brains studying brains: look before you think in vision.

PubMed

Zhaoping, Li

2016-05-11

Using our own brains to study our brains is extraordinary. For example, in vision this makes us naturally blind to our own blindness, since our impression of seeing our world clearly is consistent with our ignorance of what we do not see. Our brain employs its 'conscious' part to reason and make logical deductions using familiar rules and past experience. However, human vision employs many 'subconscious' brain parts that follow rules alien to our intuition. Our blindness to our unknown unknowns and our presumptive intuitions easily lead us astray in asking and formulating theoretical questions, as witnessed in many unexpected and counter-intuitive difficulties and failures encountered by generations of scientists. We should therefore pay a more than usual amount of attention and respect to experimental data when studying our brain. I show that this can be productive by reviewing two vision theories that have provided testable predictions and surprising insights.

Individual differences in conflict detection during reasoning.

PubMed

Frey, Darren; Johnson, Eric D; De Neys, Wim

2018-05-01

Decades of reasoning and decision-making research have established that human judgment is often biased by intuitive heuristics. Recent "error" or bias detection studies have focused on reasoners' abilities to detect whether their heuristic answer conflicts with logical or probabilistic principles. A key open question is whether there are individual differences in this bias detection efficiency. Here we present three studies in which co-registration of different error detection measures (confidence, response time and confidence response time) allowed us to assess bias detection sensitivity at the individual participant level in a range of reasoning tasks. The results indicate that although most individuals show robust bias detection, as indexed by increased latencies and decreased confidence, there is a subgroup of reasoners who consistently fail to do so. We discuss theoretical and practical implications for the field.

Modification of feeding circuits in the evolution of social behavior.

PubMed

Fischer, Eva K; O'Connell, Lauren A

2017-01-01

Adaptive trade-offs between foraging and social behavior intuitively explain many aspects of individual decision-making. Given the intimate connection between social behavior and feeding/foraging at the behavioral level, we propose that social behaviors are linked to foraging on a mechanistic level, and that modifications of feeding circuits are crucial in the evolution of complex social behaviors. In this Review, we first highlight the overlap between mechanisms underlying foraging and parental care and then expand this argument to consider the manipulation of feeding-related pathways in the evolution of other complex social behaviors. We include examples from diverse taxa to highlight that the independent evolution of complex social behaviors is a variation on the theme of feeding circuit modification. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Your Morals Depend on Language

PubMed Central

Costa, Albert; Foucart, Alice; Hayakawa, Sayuri; Aparici, Melina; Apesteguia, Jose; Heafner, Joy; Keysar, Boaz

2014-01-01

Should you sacrifice one man to save five? Whatever your answer, it should not depend on whether you were asked the question in your native language or a foreign tongue so long as you understood the problem. And yet here we report evidence that people using a foreign language make substantially more utilitarian decisions when faced with such moral dilemmas. We argue that this stems from the reduced emotional response elicited by the foreign language, consequently reducing the impact of intuitive emotional concerns. In general, we suggest that the increased psychological distance of using a foreign language induces utilitarianism. This shows that moral judgments can be heavily affected by an orthogonal property to moral principles, and importantly, one that is relevant to hundreds of millions of individuals on a daily basis. PMID:24760073

Research integrity and everyday practice of science.

PubMed

Grinnell, Frederick

2013-09-01

Science traditionally is taught as a linear process based on logic and carried out by objective researchers following the scientific method. Practice of science is a far more nuanced enterprise, one in which intuition and passion become just as important as objectivity and logic. Whether the activity is committing to study a particular research problem, drawing conclusions about a hypothesis under investigation, choosing whether to count results as data or experimental noise, or deciding what information to present in a research paper, ethical challenges inevitably will arise because of the ambiguities inherent in practice. Unless these ambiguities are acknowledged and their sources understood explicitly, responsible conduct of science education will not adequately prepare the individuals receiving the training for the kinds of decisions essential to research integrity that they will have to make as scientists.

Benefit of the doubt: a new view of the role of the prefrontal cortex in executive functioning and decision making

PubMed Central

Asp, Erik; Manzel, Kenneth; Koestner, Bryan; Denburg, Natalie L.; Tranel, Daniel

2013-01-01

The False Tagging Theory (FTT) is a neuroanatomical model of belief and doubt processes that proposes a single, unique function for the prefrontal cortex. Here, we review evidence pertaining to the FTT, the implications of the FTT regarding fractionation of the prefrontal cortex, and the potential benefits of the FTT for new neuroanatomical conceptualizations of executive functions. The FTT provides a parsimonious account that may help overcome theoretical problems with prefrontal cortex mediated executive control such as the homunculus critique. Control in the FTT is examined via the “heuristics and biases” psychological framework for human judgment. The evidence indicates that prefrontal cortex mediated doubting is at the core of executive functioning and may explain some biases of intuitive judgments. PMID:23745103

Inference of trustworthiness from intuitive moral judgments.

PubMed

Everett, Jim A C; Pizarro, David A; Crockett, M J

2016-06-01

Moral judgments play a critical role in motivating and enforcing human cooperation, and research on the proximate mechanisms of moral judgments highlights the importance of intuitive, automatic processes in forming such judgments. Intuitive moral judgments often share characteristics with deontological theories in normative ethics, which argue that certain acts (such as killing) are absolutely wrong, regardless of their consequences. Why do moral intuitions typically follow deontological prescriptions, as opposed to those of other ethical theories? Here, we test a functional explanation for this phenomenon by investigating whether agents who express deontological moral judgments are more valued as social partners. Across 5 studies, we show that people who make characteristically deontological judgments are preferred as social partners, perceived as more moral and trustworthy, and are trusted more in economic games. These findings provide empirical support for a partner choice account of moral intuitions whereby typically deontological judgments confer an adaptive function by increasing a person's likelihood of being chosen as a cooperation partner. Therefore, deontological moral intuitions may represent an evolutionarily prescribed prior that was selected for through partner choice mechanisms. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Advancing the use of performance evaluation in health care.

PubMed

Traberg, Andreas; Jacobsen, Peter; Duthiers, Nadia Monique

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for health care performance evaluation that enables decision makers to identify areas indicative of corrective actions. The framework should provide information on strategic pro-/regress in an operational context that justifies the need for organizational adjustments. The study adopts qualitative methods for constructing the framework, subsequently implementing the framework in a Danish magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) unit. Workshops and interviews form the basis of the qualitative construction phase, and two internal and five external databases are used for a quantitative data collection. By aggregating performance outcomes, collective measures of performance are achieved. This enables easy and intuitive identification of areas not strategically aligned. In general, the framework has proven helpful in an MRI unit, where operational decision makers have been struggling with extensive amounts of performance information. The implementation of the framework in a single case in a public and highly political environment restricts the generalizing potential. The authors acknowledge that there may be more suitable approaches in organizations with different settings. The strength of the framework lies in the identification of performance problems prior to decision making. The quality of decisions is directly related to the individual decision maker. The only function of the framework is to support these decisions. The study demonstrates a more refined and transparent use of performance reporting by combining strategic weight assignment and performance aggregation in hierarchies. In this way, the framework accentuates performance as a function of strategic progress or regress, thus assisting decision makers in exerting operational effort in pursuit of strategic alignment.

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Canessa, Stefano; Converse, Sarah J.; West, Matt; Clemann, Nick; Gillespie, Graeme; McFadden, Michael; Silla, Aimee J; Parris, Kirsten M; McCarthy, Michael A

2016-01-01

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long-term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making. The first decision is to identify the specific management actions most likely to achieve the fundamental objectives of the recovery plan, with or without the use of ex-situ populations. Once this decision has been made, one decides whether to establish an ex situ population, accounting for the probability of success in the initial phase of the recovery plan, for example, the probability of successful breeding in captivity. Approaching these decisions in the reverse order (attempting to establish an ex situ population before its purpose is clearly defined) can lead to a poor allocation of resources, because it may restrict the range of available decisions in the second stage. We applied our decision framework to the recovery program for the threatened spotted tree frog (Litoria spenceri) of southeastern Australia. Across a range of possible management actions, only those including ex situ management were expected to provide >50% probability of the species’ persistence, but these actions cost more than use of in situ alternatives only. The expected benefits of ex situ actions were predicted to be offset by additional uncertainty and stochasticity associated with establishing and maintaining ex situ populations. Naïvely implementing ex situ conservation strategies can lead to inefficient management. Our framework may help managers explicitly evaluate objectives, management options, and the probability of success prior to establishing a captive colony of any given species.

Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses.

PubMed

Gutiérrez-Roig, Mario; Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perelló, Josep

2016-01-01

Decisions made in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market provides a rich environment to study how people make decisions since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these strategies. For this purpose, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment where volunteers are given a controlled set of financial information -based on real data from worldwide financial indices- and they are required to guess whether the market price would go "up" or "down" in each situation. From the data collected we explore basic statistical traits, behavioural biases and emerging strategies. In particular, we detect unintended patterns of behavior through consistent actions, which can be interpreted as Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift emerging strategies, with Market Imitation being the most dominant. We also observe that these strategies are affected by external factors: the expert advice, the lack of information or an information overload reinforce the use of these intuitive strategies, while the probability to follow them significantly decreases when subjects spends more time to make a decision. The cohort analysis shows that women and children are more prone to use such strategies although their performance is not undermined. Our results are of interest for better handling clients expectations of trading companies, to avoid behavioural anomalies in financial analysts decisions and to improve not only the design of markets but also the trading digital interfaces where information is set down. Strategies and behavioural biases observed can also be translated into new agent based modelling or stochastic price dynamics to better understand financial bubbles or the effects of asymmetric risk perception to price drops.

Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift Strategies Emerge as Unintended Patterns in Market Direction Guesses

PubMed Central

Segura, Carlota; Duch, Jordi; Perelló, Josep

2016-01-01

Decisions made in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market provides a rich environment to study how people make decisions since responding to market uncertainty needs a constant update of these strategies. For this purpose, we run a lab-in-the-field experiment where volunteers are given a controlled set of financial information -based on real data from worldwide financial indices- and they are required to guess whether the market price would go “up” or “down” in each situation. From the data collected we explore basic statistical traits, behavioural biases and emerging strategies. In particular, we detect unintended patterns of behavior through consistent actions, which can be interpreted as Market Imitation and Win-Stay Lose-Shift emerging strategies, with Market Imitation being the most dominant. We also observe that these strategies are affected by external factors: the expert advice, the lack of information or an information overload reinforce the use of these intuitive strategies, while the probability to follow them significantly decreases when subjects spends more time to make a decision. The cohort analysis shows that women and children are more prone to use such strategies although their performance is not undermined. Our results are of interest for better handling clients expectations of trading companies, to avoid behavioural anomalies in financial analysts decisions and to improve not only the design of markets but also the trading digital interfaces where information is set down. Strategies and behavioural biases observed can also be translated into new agent based modelling or stochastic price dynamics to better understand financial bubbles or the effects of asymmetric risk perception to price drops. PMID:27532219

Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland.

PubMed

Gutrich, John; Donovan, Deanna; Finucane, Melissa; Focht, Will; Hitzhusen, Fred; Manopimoke, Supachit; McCauley, David; Norton, Bryan; Sabatier, Paul; Salzman, Jim; Sasmitawidjaja, Virza

2005-08-01

Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.

The biological function of consciousness

PubMed Central

Earl, Brian

2014-01-01

This research is an investigation of whether consciousness—one's ongoing experience—influences one's behavior and, if so, how. Analysis of the components, structure, properties, and temporal sequences of consciousness has established that, (1) contrary to one's intuitive understanding, consciousness does not have an active, executive role in determining behavior; (2) consciousness does have a biological function; and (3) consciousness is solely information in various forms. Consciousness is associated with a flexible response mechanism (FRM) for decision-making, planning, and generally responding in nonautomatic ways. The FRM generates responses by manipulating information and, to function effectively, its data input must be restricted to task-relevant information. The properties of consciousness correspond to the various input requirements of the FRM; and when important information is missing from consciousness, functions of the FRM are adversely affected; both of which indicate that consciousness is the input data to the FRM. Qualitative and quantitative information (shape, size, location, etc.) are incorporated into the input data by a qualia array of colors, sounds, and so on, which makes the input conscious. This view of the biological function of consciousness provides an explanation why we have experiences; why we have emotional and other feelings, and why their loss is associated with poor decision-making; why blindsight patients do not spontaneously initiate responses to events in their blind field; why counter-habitual actions are only possible when the intended action is in mind; and the reason for inattentional blindness. PMID:25140159

Visual Analytics Tools for Sustainable Lifecycle Design: Current Status, Challenges, and Future Opportunities.

PubMed

Ramanujan, Devarajan; Bernstein, William Z; Chandrasegaran, Senthil K; Ramani, Karthik

2017-01-01

The rapid rise in technologies for data collection has created an unmatched opportunity to advance the use of data-rich tools for lifecycle decision-making. However, the usefulness of these technologies is limited by the ability to translate lifecycle data into actionable insights for human decision-makers. This is especially true in the case of sustainable lifecycle design (SLD), as the assessment of environmental impacts, and the feasibility of making corresponding design changes, often relies on human expertise and intuition. Supporting human sense-making in SLD requires the use of both data-driven and user-driven methods while exploring lifecycle data. A promising approach for combining the two is through the use of visual analytics (VA) tools. Such tools can leverage the ability of computer-based tools to gather, process, and summarize data along with the ability of human-experts to guide analyses through domain knowledge or data-driven insight. In this paper, we review previous research that has created VA tools in SLD. We also highlight existing challenges and future opportunities for such tools in different lifecycle stages-design, manufacturing, distribution & supply chain, use-phase, end-of-life, as well as life cycle assessment. Our review shows that while the number of VA tools in SLD is relatively small, researchers are increasingly focusing on the subject matter. Our review also suggests that VA tools can address existing challenges in SLD and that significant future opportunities exist.

Oxytocin promotes intuitive rather than deliberated cooperation with the in-group.

PubMed

Ten Velden, Femke S; Daughters, Katie; De Dreu, Carsten K W

2017-06-01

A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition. In intergroup settings, individuals prefer cooperating with their in-group, and sometimes derogate and punish out-groups. Here we replicate earlier work showing that such in-group bounded cooperation is conditioned by oxytocin and extend it by showing that oxytocin-motivated in-group cooperation is intuitive rather than deliberated. Healthy males (N=65) and females (N=129) self-administered intranasal placebo or 24IU oxytocin in a double-blind placebo-controlled between-subjects design, were assigned to a three-person in-group (that faced a 3-person out-group), and given an endowment from which they could contribute to a within-group pool (benefitting the in-group), and/or to a between-group pool (benefitting the in-group and punishing the out-group). Prior to decision-making, participants performed a Stroop Interference task that was either cognitively taxing, or not. Cognitively taxed individuals kept less to themselves and contributed more to the within-group pool. Furthermore, participants receiving placebo contributed more to the within-group pool when they were cognitively taxed rather than not; those receiving oxytocin contributed to the within-group pool regardless of cognitive taxation. Neither taxation nor treatment influenced contributions to the between-group pool, and no significant sex differences were observed. It follows that in intergroup settings (i) oxytocin increases in-group bounded cooperation, (ii) oxytocin neither reduces nor increases out-group directed spite, and (iii) oxytocin-induced in-group cooperation is independent of cognitive taxation and, therefore, likely to be intuitive rather than consciously deliberated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Intuitive Intelligence, Self-regulation, and Lifting Consciousness

PubMed Central

Zayas, Maria

2014-01-01

This article explores the role of the heart in emotional experience, as well as how learning to shift the rhythms of the heart into a more coherent state makes it possible to establish a new inner baseline reference that allows access to our heart’s intuitive capacities and deeper wisdom. The nature and types of intuition and the connection between intuition and compassionate action are discussed. It is suggested that increased effectiveness in self-regulatory capacity and the resultant reorganization of memories sustained in the neural architecture facilitates a stable and integrated experience of self in relationship to others and to the environment, otherwise known as consciousness. The implications of meeting the increasingly complex demands of life with greater love, compassion, and kindness, thereby lifting consciousness, are considered. PMID:24808982

Effect of individual thinking styles on item selection during study time allocation.

PubMed

Jia, Xiaoyu; Li, Weijian; Cao, Liren; Li, Ping; Shi, Meiling; Wang, Jingjing; Cao, Wei; Li, Xinyu

2018-04-01

The influence of individual differences on learners' study time allocation has been emphasised in recent studies; however, little is known about the role of individual thinking styles (analytical versus intuitive). In the present study, we explored the influence of individual thinking styles on learners' application of agenda-based and habitual processes when selecting the first item during a study-time allocation task. A 3-item cognitive reflection test (CRT) was used to determine individuals' degree of cognitive reliance on intuitive versus analytical cognitive processing. Significant correlations between CRT scores and the choices of first item selection were observed in both Experiment 1a (study time was 5 seconds per triplet) and Experiment 1b (study time was 20 seconds per triplet). Furthermore, analytical decision makers constructed a value-based agenda (prioritised high-reward items), whereas intuitive decision makers relied more upon habitual responding (selected items from the leftmost of the array). The findings of Experiment 1a were replicated in Experiment 2 notwithstanding ruling out the possible effects from individual intelligence and working memory capacity. Overall, the individual thinking style plays an important role on learners' study time allocation and the predictive ability of CRT is reliable in learners' item selection strategy. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

The influence of intuition and communication language in generating student conceptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handhika, J.; Cari, C.; Suparmi, A.; Sunarno, W.

2017-11-01

This research aims to describe the influence of intuition and communication language in generating student conceptions. The conception diagnostic test is used to reveal student conception. The diagnostic test results described and communication language profiled by giving instruction to students to make sentences using physics quantities. Sentences expressed by students are reduced and profiled potential effects. Obtained information that (1) Students generalize non-scientific experience (based on feeling) into the physics problem. This process caused misconception. Communication language can make the students difficult to understand the concept because of the difference meaning of communication and physics language.

Acceptability and preliminary feasibility of an internet/CD-ROM-based education and decision program for early-stage prostate cancer patients: randomized pilot study.

PubMed

Diefenbach, Michael A; Mohamed, Nihal E; Butz, Brian P; Bar-Chama, Natan; Stock, Richard; Cesaretti, Jamie; Hassan, Waleed; Samadi, David; Hall, Simon J

2012-01-13

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer affecting men in the United States. Management options for localized disease exist, yet an evidence-based criterion standard for treatment still has to emerge. Although 5-year survival rates approach 98%, all treatment options carry the possibility for significant side effects, such as erectile dysfunction and urinary incontinence. It is therefore recommended that patients be actively involved in the treatment decision process. We have developed an Internet/CD-ROM-based multimedia Prostate Interactive Educational System (PIES) to enhance patients' treatment decision making. PIES virtually mirrors a health center to provide patients with information about prostate cancer and its treatment through an intuitive interface, using videos, animations, graphics, and texts. (1) To examine the acceptability and feasibility of the PIES intervention and to report preliminary outcomes of the program in a pilot trial among patients with a new prostate cancer diagnosis, and (2) to explore the potential impact of tailoring PIES treatment information to participants' information-seeking styles on study outcomes. Participants (n = 72) were patients with newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer who had not made a treatment decision. Patients were randomly assigned to 3 experimental conditions: (1) control condition (providing information through standard National Cancer Institute brochures; 26%), and PIES (2) with tailoring (43%) and (3) without tailoring to a patient's information-seeking style (31%). Questionnaires were administrated before (t1) and immediately after the intervention (t2). Measurements include evaluation and acceptability of the PIES intervention, monitoring/blunting information-seeking style, psychological distress, and decision-related variables (eg, decisional confidence, feeling informed about prostate cancer and treatment, and treatment preference). The PIES program was well accepted by patients and did not interfere with the clinical routine. About 79% of eligible patients (72/91) completed the pre- and post-PIES intervention assessments. Patients in the PIES groups compared with those in the control condition were significantly more likely to report higher levels of confidence in their treatment choices, higher levels of helpfulness of the information they received in making a treatment decision, and that the information they received was emotionally reassuring. Patients in the PIES groups compared with those in the control condition were significantly less likely to need more information about treatment options, were less anxious about their treatment choices, and thought the information they received was clear (P < .05). Tailoring PIES information to information-seeking style was not related to decision-making variables. This pilot study confirms that the implementation of PIES within a clinical practice is feasible and acceptable to patients with a recent diagnosis of prostate cancer. PIES improved key decision-making process variables and reduced the emotional impact of a difficult medical decision.

A Conceptual Modeling Approach for OLAP Personalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrigós, Irene; Pardillo, Jesús; Mazón, Jose-Norberto; Trujillo, Juan

Data warehouses rely on multidimensional models in order to provide decision makers with appropriate structures to intuitively analyze data with OLAP technologies. However, data warehouses may be potentially large and multidimensional structures become increasingly complex to be understood at a glance. Even if a departmental data warehouse (also known as data mart) is used, these structures would be also too complex. As a consequence, acquiring the required information is more costly than expected and decision makers using OLAP tools may get frustrated. In this context, current approaches for data warehouse design are focused on deriving a unique OLAP schema for all analysts from their previously stated information requirements, which is not enough to lighten the complexity of the decision making process. To overcome this drawback, we argue for personalizing multidimensional models for OLAP technologies according to the continuously changing user characteristics, context, requirements and behaviour. In this paper, we present a novel approach to personalizing OLAP systems at the conceptual level based on the underlying multidimensional model of the data warehouse, a user model and a set of personalization rules. The great advantage of our approach is that a personalized OLAP schema is provided for each decision maker contributing to better satisfy their specific analysis needs. Finally, we show the applicability of our approach through a sample scenario based on our CASE tool for data warehouse development.

Investigating Undergraduate Students’ Use of Intuitive Reasoning and Evolutionary Knowledge in Explanations of Antibiotic Resistance

PubMed Central

Richard, Melissa; Coley, John D.; Tanner, Kimberly D.

2017-01-01

Natural selection is a central concept throughout biology; however, it is a process frequently misunderstood. Bacterial resistance to antibiotic medications provides a contextual example of the relevance of evolutionary theory and is also commonly misunderstood. While research has shed light on student misconceptions of natural selection, minimal study has focused on misconceptions of antibiotic resistance. Additionally, research has focused on the degree to which misconceptions may be based in the complexity of biological information or in pedagogical choices, rather than in deep-seated cognitive patterns. Cognitive psychology research has established that humans develop early intuitive assumptions to make sense of the world. In this study, we used a written assessment tool to investigate undergraduate students’ misconceptions of antibiotic resistance, use of intuitive reasoning, and application of evolutionary knowledge to antibiotic resistance. We found a majority of students produced and agreed with misconceptions, and intuitive reasoning was present in nearly all students’ written explanations. Acceptance of a misconception was significantly associated with production of a hypothesized form of intuitive thinking (all p ≤ 0.05). Intuitive reasoning may represent a subtle but innately appealing linguistic shorthand, and instructor awareness of intuitive reasoning’s relation to student misunderstandings has potential for addressing persistent misconceptions. PMID:28821540

Fuzzy Trace Theory and Medical Decisions by Minors: Differences in Reasoning between Adolescents and Adults

PubMed Central

Wilhelms, Evan A.

2013-01-01

Standard models of adolescent risk taking posit that the cognitive abilities of adolescents and adults are equivalent, and that increases in risk taking that occur during adolescence are the result of socio emotional differences in impulsivity, sensation seeking, and lack of self-control. Fuzzy-trace theory incorporates these socio emotional differences. However, it predicts that there are also cognitive differences between adolescents and adults, specifically that there are developmental increases in gist-based intuition that reflects understanding. Gist understanding, as opposed to verbatim-based analysis, generally has been hypothesized to have a protective effect on risk taking in adolescence. Gist understanding is also an essential element of informed consent regarding risks in medical decision- making. Evidence thus supports the argument that adolescents’ status as mature minors should be treated as an exception rather than a presumption, because accuracy in verbatim analysis is not mature gist understanding. Use of the exception should be accompanied by medical experts’ input on the bottom-line gist of risks involved in treatment. PMID:23606728

Fear and anger have opposite effects on risk seeking in the gain frame.

PubMed

Habib, Marianne; Cassotti, Mathieu; Moutier, Sylvain; Houdé, Olivier; Borst, Grégoire

2015-01-01

Emotions strongly influence our decisions, particularly those made under risk. A classic example of the effect of emotion on decision making under risk is the "framing effect," which involves predictable shifts in preferences when the same problem is formulated in different ways. According to dual process theories, this bias could stem from an affective heuristic belonging to an intuitive type of reasoning. In this study, we examined whether specific incidental negative emotions (i.e., fear and anger) influence framing susceptibility and risk-taking identically. In each trial, participants received an initial amount of money, and pictures of angry or fearful faces were presented to them. Finally, participants chose between a sure option and a gamble option of equally expected value in a gain or loss frame. Risk-taking was modulated by emotional context: fear and anger influenced risk-taking specifically in the gain frame and had opposite effects. Fear increased risk-averse choices, whereas anger decreased risk-averse choices, leading to a suppression of the framing effect. These results confirm that emotions play a key role in framing susceptibility.

Organizational Data Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemati, Hamid R.; Barko, Christopher D.

Many organizations today possess substantial quantities of business information but have very little real business knowledge. A recent survey of 450 business executives reported that managerial intuition and instinct are more prevalent than hard facts in driving organizational decisions. To reverse this trend, businesses of all sizes would be well advised to adopt Organizational Data Mining (ODM). ODM is defined as leveraging Data Mining tools and technologies to enhance the decision-making process by transforming data into valuable and actionable knowledge to gain a competitive advantage. ODM has helped many organizations optimize internal resource allocations while better understanding and responding to the needs of their customers. The fundamental aspects of ODM can be categorized into Artificial Intelligence (AI), Information Technology (IT), and Organizational Theory (OT), with OT being the key distinction between ODM and Data Mining. In this chapter, we introduce ODM, explain its unique characteristics, and report on the current status of ODM research. Next we illustrate how several leading organizations have adopted ODM and are benefiting from it. Then we examine the evolution of ODM to the present day and conclude our chapter by contemplating ODM's challenging yet opportunistic future.

Forced-choice decision-making in modified trolley dilemma situations: a virtual reality and eye tracking study.

PubMed

Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Kaspar, Kai; Pipa, Gordon

2014-01-01

Based on the frameworks of dual-process theories, we examined the interplay between intuitive and controlled cognitive processes related to moral and social judgments. In a virtual reality (VR) setting we performed an experiment investigating the progression from fast, automatic decisions towards more controlled decisions over multiple trials in the context of a sacrificing scenario. We repeatedly exposed participants to a modified ten-to-one version and to three one-to-one versions of the trolley dilemma in VR and varied avatar properties, such as their gender and ethnicity, and their orientation in space. We also investigated the influence of arousing music on decisions. Our experiment replicated the behavioral pattern observed in studies using text versions of the trolley dilemma, thereby validating the use of virtual environments in research on moral judgments. Additionally, we found a general tendency towards sacrificing male individuals which correlated with socially desirable responding. As indicated by differences in response times, the ten-to-one version of the trolley dilemma seems to be faster to decide than decisions requiring comparisons based on specific avatar properties as a result of differing moral content. Building upon research on music-based emotion induction, we used music to induce emotional arousal on a physiological level as measured by pupil diameter. We found a specific temporal signature displaying a peak in arousal around the moment of decision. This signature occurs independently of the overall arousal level. Furthermore, we found context-dependent gaze durations during sacrificing decisions, leading participants to look prolonged at their victim if they had to choose between avatars differing in gender. Our study confirmed that moral decisions can be explained within the framework of dual-process theories and shows that pupillometric measurements are a promising tool for investigating affective responses in dilemma situations.

Fatal attraction: the intuitive appeal of GMO opposition.

PubMed

Blancke, Stefaan; Van Breusegem, Frank; De Jaeger, Geert; Braeckman, Johan; Van Montagu, Marc

2015-07-01

Public opposition to genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains strong. By contrast, studies demonstrate again and again that GM crops make a valuable contribution to the development of a sustainable type of agriculture. The discrepancy between public opinion and the scientific evidence requires an explanation. We argue that intuitive expectations about the world render the human mind vulnerable to particular misrepresentations of GMOs. We explain how the involvement of particular intuitions accounts for the popularity, persistence, and typical features of GM opposition and tackle possible objections to our approach. To conclude, we discuss the implications for science education, science communication, and the environmental movement. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rationality, practice variation and person-centred health policy: a threshold hypothesis.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Van den Ende, Jef

2015-12-01

Variation in practice of medicine is one of the major health policy issues of today. Ultimately, it is related to physicians' decision making. Similar patients with similar likelihood of having disease are often managed by different doctors differently: some doctors may elect to observe the patient, others decide to act based on diagnostic testing and yet others may elect to treat without testing. We explain these differences in practice by differences in disease probability thresholds at which physicians decide to act: contextual social and clinical factors and emotions such as regret affect the threshold by influencing the way doctors integrate objective data related to treatment and testing. However, depending on a theoretical construct each of the physician's behaviour can be considered rational. In fact, we showed that the current regulatory policies lead to predictably low thresholds for most decisions in contemporary practice. As a result, we may expect continuing motivation for overuse of treatment and diagnostic tests. We argue that rationality should take into account both formal principles of rationality and human intuitions about good decisions along the lines of Rawls' 'reflective equilibrium/considered judgment'. In turn, this can help define a threshold model that is empirically testable. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fortune Favours the Bold: An Agent-Based Model Reveals Adaptive Advantages of Overconfidence in War

PubMed Central

Johnson, Dominic D. P.; Weidmann, Nils B.; Cederman, Lars-Erik

2011-01-01

Overconfidence has long been considered a cause of war. Like other decision-making biases, overconfidence seems detrimental because it increases the frequency and costs of fighting. However, evolutionary biologists have proposed that overconfidence may also confer adaptive advantages: increasing ambition, resolve, persistence, bluffing opponents, and winning net payoffs from risky opportunities despite occasional failures. We report the results of an agent-based model of inter-state conflict, which allows us to evaluate the performance of different strategies in competition with each other. Counter-intuitively, we find that overconfident states predominate in the population at the expense of unbiased or underconfident states. Overconfident states win because: (1) they are more likely to accumulate resources from frequent attempts at conquest; (2) they are more likely to gang up on weak states, forcing victims to split their defences; and (3) when the decision threshold for attacking requires an overwhelming asymmetry of power, unbiased and underconfident states shirk many conflicts they are actually likely to win. These “adaptive advantages” of overconfidence may, via selection effects, learning, or evolved psychology, have spread and become entrenched among modern states, organizations and decision-makers. This would help to explain the frequent association of overconfidence and war, even if it no longer brings benefits today. PMID:21731627

The evaluation and enhancement of quality, environmental protection and seaport safety by using FAHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadic, Danijela; Aleksic, Aleksandar; Popovic, Pavle; Arsovski, Slavko; Castelli, Ana; Joksimovic, Danijela; Stefanovic, Miladin

2017-02-01

The evaluation and enhancement of business processes in any organization in an uncertain environment presents one of the main requirements of ISO 9000:2008 and has a key effect on competitive advantage and long-term sustainability. The aim of this paper can be defined as the identification and discussion of some of the most important business processes of seaports and the performances of business processes and their key performance indicators (KPIs). The complexity and importance of the treated problem call for analytic methods rather than intuitive decisions. The existing decision variables of the considered problem are described by linguistic expressions which are modelled by triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). In this paper, the modified fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed. The assessment of the relative importance of each pair of performances and their key performance indicators are stated as a fuzzy group decision-making problem. By using the modified fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process, the fuzzy rank of business processes of a seaport is obtained. The model is tested through an illustrative example with real-life data, where the obtained data suggest measures which should enhance business strategy and improve key performance indicators. The future improvement is based on benchmark and knowledge sharing.

The framing effect and skin conductance responses

PubMed Central

Ring, Patrick

2015-01-01

Individuals often rely on simple heuristics when they face complex choice situations under uncertainty. Traditionally, it has been proposed that cognitive processes are the main driver to evaluate different choice options and to finally reach a decision. Growing evidence, however, highlights a strong interrelation between judgment and decision-making (JDM) on the one hand, and emotional processes on the other hand. This also seems to apply to judgmental heuristics, i.e., decision processes that are typically considered to be fast and intuitive. In this study, participants are exposed to different probabilities of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. Information about electric shock probabilities is either positively or negatively framed. Integrated skin conductance responses (ISCRs) while waiting for electric shock realization are used as an indicator for participants' emotional arousal. This measure is compared to objective probabilities. I find evidence for a relation between emotional body reactions measured by ISCRs and the framing effect. Under negative frames, participants show significantly higher ISCRs while waiting for an electric shock to be delivered than under positive frames. This result might contribute to a better understanding of the psychological processes underlying JDM. Further studies are necessary to reveal the causality underlying this finding, i.e., whether emotional processes influence JDM or vice versa. PMID:26300747

Cognitive effort: A neuroeconomic approach

PubMed Central

Braver, Todd S.

2015-01-01

Cognitive effort has been implicated in numerous theories regarding normal and aberrant behavior and the physiological response to engagement with demanding tasks. Yet, despite broad interest, no unifying, operational definition of cognitive effort itself has been proposed. Here, we argue that the most intuitive and epistemologically valuable treatment is in terms of effort-based decision-making, and advocate a neuroeconomics-focused research strategy. We first outline psychological and neuroscientific theories of cognitive effort. Then we describe the benefits of a neuroeconomic research strategy, highlighting how it affords greater inferential traction than do traditional markers of cognitive effort, including self-reports and physiologic markers of autonomic arousal. Finally, we sketch a future series of studies that can leverage the full potential of the neuroeconomic approach toward understanding the cognitive and neural mechanisms that give rise to phenomenal, subjective cognitive effort. PMID:25673005

Optimal filter design with progressive genetic algorithm for local damage detection in rolling bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wodecki, Jacek; Michalak, Anna; Zimroz, Radoslaw

2018-03-01

Harsh industrial conditions present in underground mining cause a lot of difficulties for local damage detection in heavy-duty machinery. For vibration signals one of the most intuitive approaches of obtaining signal with expected properties, such as clearly visible informative features, is prefiltration with appropriately prepared filter. Design of such filter is very broad field of research on its own. In this paper authors propose a novel approach to dedicated optimal filter design using progressive genetic algorithm. Presented method is fully data-driven and requires no prior knowledge of the signal. It has been tested against a set of real and simulated data. Effectiveness of operation has been proven for both healthy and damaged case. Termination criterion for evolution process was developed, and diagnostic decision making feature has been proposed for final result determinance.