Making LULUCF matrix of Korea by Approach 2&3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, J.; Jang, R.; Seong, M.; Yim, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2017-12-01

To establish and implement policies in response to climate change, it is very important to identify domestic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks, and accurately calculate emissions and removals from each source and sink. The IPCC Guideline requires the establishment of six sectors of energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and waste in estimating GHG inventories. LULUCF is divided into 6 categories according to land use, purpose, and type, and then it calculates greenhouse gas emission/absorption amount due to artificial activities according to each land use category and greenhouse gas emission/absorption amount according to land use change. The IPCC Guideline provides three approaches to how to create a LULUCF discipline matrix. According to the IPCC Guidelines, it is a principle to divide into the land use that is maintained and the land use area changed to other lands. However, Korea currently uses Approach 1, which is based on statistical data, it is difficult to detect changed area. Therefore, in this study, we are going to do a preliminary work for constructing the LULUCF matrix at Approach 2 & 3 level. NFI data, GIS, and RS data were used to build the matrix of Approach 2 method by Sampling method. For used for Approach 3, we analyzed the four thematic maps - Cadastral Map, Land Cover Map, Forest Type Map, and Biotope Map - representing land cover and utilization in terms of legal, property, quantitative and qualitative aspects. There is a difference between these maps because their purpose, resolution, timing and spatial range are different. Comparing these maps is important because it can help for decide map which is suitable for constructing the LULUCF matrix.Keywords: LULUCF, GIS/RS, IPCC Guideline, Approach 2&3, Thematic Maps

A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

PubMed

Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

2015-01-01

China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China. PMID:26865831

Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

2015-12-01

China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China.

Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

Temporal Considerations of Carbon Sequestration in LCA

Treesearch

James Salazar; Richard Bergman

2013-01-01

Accounting for carbon sequestration in LCA illustrates the limitations of a single global warming characterization factor. Typical cradle-to-grave LCA models all emissions from end-of-life processes and then characterizes these flows by IPCC GWP (100-yr) factors. A novel method estimates climate change impact by characterizing annual emissions with the IPCC GHG forcing...

Verifying the UK agricultural N2O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Meneguz, E.; Skiba, U. M.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Cardenas, L. M.; Arnold, T.; Manning, A.; Dragosits, U.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential 300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates, in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and an alternative approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the alternative approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E. England; Ridge Hill, W. England; Mace Head, W. Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to correspond with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of land spreading of manures and fertiliser application. The model run using the default IPCC methodology was found to correspond with the observed data more closely than the alternative approach.

Development of municipal solid waste classification in Korea based on fossil carbon fraction.

PubMed

Lee, Jeongwoo; Kang, Seongmin; Kim, Seungjin; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2015-10-01

Environmental problems and climate change arising from waste incineration are taken quite seriously in the world. In Korea, the waste disposal methods are largely classified into landfill, incineration, recycling, etc. and the amount of incinerated waste has risen by 24.5% from 2002. In the analysis of CO₂emissions estimations of waste incinerators fossil carbon content are main factor by the IPCC. FCF differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country, and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration. The characteristics possible for sorting were classified according to FCF and form. The characteristics sorted according to fossil carbon fraction were paper, textiles, rubber, and leather. Paper was classified into pure paper and processed paper; textiles were classified into cotton and synthetic fibers; and rubber and leather were classified into artificial and natural. The analysis of FCF was implemented by collecting representative samples from each classification group, by applying the 14C method, and using AMS equipment. And the analysis values were compared with the default values proposed by the IPCC. In this study of garden and park waste and plastics, the differences were within the range of the IPCC default values or the differences were negligible. However, coated paper, synthetic textiles, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, artificial leather, and other wastes showed differences of over 10% in FCF content. IPCC is comprised of largely 9 types of qualitative classifications, in emissions estimation a great difference can occur from the combined characteristics according with the existing IPCC classification system by using the minutely classified waste characteristics as in this study. Fossil carbon fraction (FCF) differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country; and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration.

Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and ...

Regional-scale controls on dissolved nitrous oxide in the Upper Mississippi River

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bottom-up estimates of riverine nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume a constant emission factor (EF5r) that predicts N2O production from anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. This relation ignores any direct stream water biochemical charact...

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Nitrous oxide exchanges with the atmosphere of a constructed wetland treating wastewater. Parameters and implications for emission factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, A. E.; Kasimir Klemedtsson, Å.; Klemedtsson, L.; Svensson, B. H.

2003-07-01

Static chamber measurements of N2O fluxes were taken during the 1998 and 1999 growth seasons in a Swedish constructed wetland receiving wastewater. The dominating plant species in different parts of the wetland were Lemna minor L., Typha latifolia L., Spirogyra sp. and Glyceria maxima (Hartm.) and Phalaris arundinacea (L.), respectively. There were large temporal and spatial variations in N2O fluxes, which ranged from consumption at -350 to emissions at 1791 μg N2O m-2 h-1. The largest positive flux occurred in October 1999 and the lowest in the middle of July 1999. The average N2O flux for the two years was 130 μg N2O m-2 h-1 (SD = 220). No significant differences in N2O fluxes were found between the years, even though the two growing seasons differed considerably with respect to both air temperature and precipitation. 15% of the fluxes were negative, showing a consumption of N2O. Consumption occurred on a few occasions at most measurement sites and ranged from 1-350 μg N2O m-2 h-1. 13-43% of the variation in N2O fluxes was explained by multiple linear regression analysis including principal components. Emission factors were calculated according to IPCC methods from the N2O fluxes in the constructed wetland. The calculated emission factors were always lower (0.02-0.27%) compared to the default factor provided by the IPCC (0.75%). Thus, direct application of the IPCC default factor may lead to overestimation of N2O fluxes from constructed wastewater-treating wetlands.

Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology.

PubMed

Yu, Zhongjie; Deng, Huanguang; Wang, Dongqi; Ye, Mingwu; Tan, Yongjie; Li, Yangjie; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

2013-10-01

Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N(2)O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N(2)O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km(2), over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N(2)O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N(2)O production and were better predictors of N(2)O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N(2)O-N yr(-1) N(2)O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N(2)O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N(2)O emission. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

2012-09-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that single changes have a small mitigating effect on GHG emissions (<5%), except for strategies used to control emissions from manure storage in the Confinement system (14% to 24%). However, when several management strategies were combined, GHG emissions per unit of product could be reduced significantly (15% to 30%). The LCA method was identified as the preferred approach to assess the effect of management changes on GHG emissions, but the analysis indicated that further standardisation of the approach is needed given the sensitivity of the approach to allocation decisions regarding milk and meat.

[County-scale N2O emission inventory of China's manure management system].

PubMed

Wang, Chuan; Gao, Wei; Zhou, Feng; Chen, Qing; Ying, Na; Xu, Peng; Hou, Xi-Kang

2013-10-01

Manure is one of the two largest contributors to China's N2O emission. By using the county-scale activity data and the regional emission factors and related parameters with spatial differentiation in China in 2008, this paper assessed the N2O emission loading, sources profile, spatial pattern, and uncertainty, aimed to establish a high-resolution N2O emission inventory of China's manure management system in 2008. As compared with the research results based on the IPCC, EDGAR, and other works, the proposed emission inventory was more reliable and comprehensive. The total China' s N2O emission from manure in 2008 was estimated as 572 Gg, among which, the emission from the manure except pasture/range/paddock was 322 Gg (56.3%), from the manure in pasture/range/paddock was 180 Gg (31.5%), and the indirect emission from atmospheric volatilized N deposition and leaching/runoff was 45.8 Gg (8.0%) and 1.23 Gg (0.2%), respectively. The spatial pattern of China's N2O emission from manure was more centralized, and mainly concentrated in Jilin, Shandong, Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning provinces, contributing 52.4% of the total emission, and more than 25% being from 84 counties (only < 3% of the whole counties). The proposed emission inventory had a higher spatial resolution and accuracy. Different with this inventory, the IPCC underestimated the direct emission while overestimated the indirect emission, with the regions of higher emission rate being underestimated by -1.5%-6.0% and those of lower emission rate being overestimated by 1.6%-13%. As for the EDGAR, the regions of higher emission rate were underestimated by -18. 8--50.0%, and those of lower emission rate were mostly overestimated by 25%-54.1%.

Carbon footprint of automotive ignition coil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Huey-Ling; Chen, Chih-Ming; Sun, Chin-Huang; Lin, Hung-Di

2015-07-01

In recent years, environmental issues, such as climate change and global warming due to the excessive development of industry, have attracted increasing attention of citizens worldwide. It is known that CO2 accounts for the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Therefore, how to reduce CO2 emissions during the life cycle of a product to lessen its impact on environment is an important topic in the industrial society. Furthermore, it is also of great significance to cut down the required energy so as to lower its production costs during the manufacturing process nowadays. This study presents the carbon footprint of an automotive ignition coil and its partial materials are defined to explore their carbon emissions and environmental impact. The model IPCC GWP100a calculates potential global greenhouse effect by converting them into CO2 equivalents. In this way, the overall carbon footprint of an ignition coil can be explored. By using IPCC GWP100a, the results display that the shell has the most carbon emissions. The results can help the industry reduce the carbon emissions of an ignition coil product.

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

PubMed

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

A correction in the CDM methodological tool for estimating methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites.

PubMed

Santos, M M O; van Elk, A G P; Romanel, C

2015-12-01

Solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) - especially landfills - are a significant source of methane, a greenhouse gas. Although having the potential to be captured and used as a fuel, most of the methane formed in SWDS is emitted to the atmosphere, mainly in developing countries. Methane emissions have to be estimated in national inventories. To help this task the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three sets of guidelines. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to assist the developed countries to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions by assisting other countries to achieve sustainable development while reducing emissions. Based on methodologies provided by the IPCC regarding SWDS, the CDM Executive Board has issued a tool to be used by project developers for estimating baseline methane emissions in their project activities - on burning biogas from landfills or on preventing biomass to be landfilled and so avoiding methane emissions. Some inconsistencies in the first two IPCC guidelines have already been pointed out in an Annex of IPCC latest edition, although with hidden details. The CDM tool uses a model for methane estimation that takes on board parameters, factors and assumptions provided in the latest IPCC guidelines, while using in its core equation the one of the second IPCC edition with its shortcoming as well as allowing a misunderstanding of the time variable. Consequences of wrong ex-ante estimation of baseline emissions regarding CDM project activities can be of economical or environmental type. Example of the first type is the overestimation of 18% in an actual project on biogas from landfill in Brazil that harms its developers; of the second type, the overestimation of 35% in a project preventing municipal solid waste from being landfilled in China, which harms the environment, not for the project per se but for the undue generated carbon credits. In a simulated landfill - the same amount of waste for 20 years -, the error would be an overestimation of 25% if the CDM project activity starts from the very first year or an underestimation of 15% if it starts just after the landfill closure. Therefore, a correction in the tool to calculate emissions from landfills as adopted by the CDM Executive Board is needed. Moreover, in countries not using the latest IPCC guidelines, which provides clear formulas to prevent misunderstandings, inventory compilers can also benefit from this paper by having more accurate results in national GHG inventories related to solid waste disposal, especially when increasing amounts of waste are landfilled, which is the case of the developing countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trace gas emissions following deposition of excreta by grazing dairy cows in eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochette, P.; Pelster, D. E.; Chantigny, M. H.; Angers, D. A.; Liang, C.; Belanger, G.; Ziadi, N.; Charbonneau, E.; Pellerin, D.

2012-04-01

The N2O emission factor proposed for cattle excreta N by the Tier I IPCC methodology (EF3) is 2% (IPCC, 2006). While N2O emissions from excreta deposited by grazing animals have been reported in several publications, relatively few estimated EF3 values because measurements did not cover the entire year. This study measured N2O and CH4 flux and crop dry matter (DM) yield over two years (2009 to 2011) from a clay and a sandy loam soil cultivated with Timothy grass (Phleum pratense L.). A split-plot design was used on each soil type, with different application dates (either spring, summer or autumn application) as main plots and treatment (U-50: urine 50 g N m-2, U-100: urine 100 g N m-2, dung: 60 g N m-2, and control) as the sub-plots. Regardless of application time, annual DM yield increased in all treated plots when compared to the control. Also, DM yields were generally greater when urine as opposed to dung was applied suggesting greater N-availability from the urine application. The CH4 flux from the dung plots increased for only the first two weeks after treatment while the flux from the urine plots was similar to the control plots. Cumulative N2O emissions on the U-50 and U-100 plots increased linearly with urine N rate on both soils, resulting in nearly identical mean emission factors for both urine rates. The emission factor for the urine was three times greater on the clay (1.02% of applied N on both rates) than on the sandy loam soil (0.26% (U100) and 0.31% (U50) of applied N). Cumulative N2O emissions from dung plots also differed between soil types; however the impact of soil type on N2O emissions was opposite to that of urine, with greater losses from the sandy loam (0.15%) compared with the clay soil (0.07%). These results suggest that estimates of soil N2O emissions by grazing cattle in Eastern Canada obtained using the IPCC default methodology are overestimates of actual values and that these estimates for should include a stratification according to soil type.

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-01-01

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Methane correction factors for estimating emissions from aerobic wastewater treatment facilities based on field data in Mexico and on literature review.

PubMed

Noyola, A; Paredes, M G; Güereca, L P; Molina, L T; Zavala, M

2018-10-15

Wastewater treatment (WWT) may be an important source of methane (CH 4 ), a greenhouse gas with significant global warming potential. Sources of CH 4 emissions from WWT facilities can be found in the water and in the sludge process lines. Among the methodologies for estimating CH 4 emissions inventories from WWT, the more adopted are the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which recommends default emission factors (Tier 1) depending on WWT systems. Recent published results show that well managed treatment facilities may emit CH 4 , due to dissolved CH 4 in the influent wastewater; in addition, biological nutrient removal also will produce this gas in the anaerobic (or anoxic) steps. However, none of these elements is considered in the current IPCC guidelines. The aim of this work is to propose modified (and new) methane correction factors (MCF) regarding the current Tier 1 IPCC guidelines for CH 4 emissions from aerobic treatment systems, with and without anaerobic sludge digesters, focusing on intertropical countries. The modifications are supported on in situ assessment of fugitive CH 4 emissions in two facilities in Mexico and on relevant literature data. In the case of well-managed centralized aerobic treatment plant, a MCF of 0.06 (instead of the current 0.0) is proposed, considering that the assumption of a CH 4 -neutral treatment facility, as established in the IPCC methodology, is not supported. Similarly, a MCF of 0.08 is proposed for biological nutrient removal processes, being a new entry in the guidelines. Finally, a one-step straightforward calculation is proposed for centralized aerobic treatment plants with anaerobic digesters that avoids confusion when selecting the appropriate default MCF based on the Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The study on biomass fraction estimate methodology of municipal solid waste incinerator in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Seongmin; Kim, Seungjin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yun, Hyunki; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2016-10-01

In Korea, the amount of greenhouse gases released due to waste materials was 14,800,000 t CO2eq in 2012, which increased from 5,000,000 t CO2eq in 2010. This included the amount released due to incineration, which has gradually increased since 2010. Incineration was found to be the biggest contributor to greenhouse gases, with 7,400,000 t CO2eq released in 2012. Therefore, with regards to the trading of greenhouse gases emissions initiated in 2015 and the writing of the national inventory report, it is important to increase the reliability of the measurements related to the incineration of waste materials. This research explored methods for estimating the biomass fraction at Korean MSW incinerator facilities and compared the biomass fractions obtained with the different biomass fraction estimation methods. The biomass fraction was estimated by the method using default values of fossil carbon fraction suggested by IPCC, the method using the solid waste composition, and the method using incinerator flue gas. The highest biomass fractions in Korean municipal solid waste incinerator facilities were estimated by the IPCC Default method, followed by the MSW analysis method and the Flue gas analysis method. Therefore, the difference in the biomass fraction estimate was the greatest between the IPCC Default and the Flue gas analysis methods. The difference between the MSW analysis and the flue gas analysis methods was smaller than the difference with IPCC Default method. This suggested that the use of the IPCC default method cannot reflect the characteristics of Korean waste incinerator facilities and Korean MSW. Incineration is one of most effective methods for disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW). This paper investigates the applicability of using biomass content to estimate the amount of CO2 released, and compares the biomass contents determined by different methods in order to establish a method for estimating biomass in the MSW incinerator facilities of Korea. After analyzing the biomass contents of the collected solid waste samples and the flue gas samples, the results were compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, and it seems that to calculate the biomass fraction it is better to use the flue gas analysis method than the IPCC method. It is valuable to design and operate a real new incineration power plant, especially for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Using pan-tropical biomass maps to improve IPCC Tier 1 default level emission factors - a case study for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langner, Andreas; Achard, Frédéric; Grassi, Giacomo

2014-05-01

The IPCC proposes three Tier levels for greenhouse gas emission monitoring with a hierarchical order in terms of accuracy as well as data requirements/complexity. While Tier 1 provides default above-ground biomass (AGB) values per ecological zone and continent, Tier 2 and 3 are either based on country-specific remote sensing or permanent sample-plot data. Due to missing capacities most developing countries have to rely on Tier 1 default values, which show highest uncertainties. Furthermore, IPCC Tier 1 values lack transparency as they are based on a variety of studies that have been repeatedly updated and combined with expert opinions, thus blurring the original data sources. A possible way to increase credibility is a conservative monitoring approach, following the principle of conservativeness, thus reducing the likelihood of unjustified payments for emission reductions not reflecting reality. For the implementation of that principle knowledge about the distribution of the biomass within each ecological zone is essential. However, such information is not available for the IPCC Tier 1 values, which only provide mean values and/or AGB ranges that are not based on a common statistical analysis. Using the pan-tropical datasets of Saatchi et al (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108, 9899-9904, 2011; 1km spatial resolution) and Baccini et al (Nat Climate Change, 2:182-185, 2012; 500m spatial resolution) we calculated the mean AGB values as well as their 50% confidence intervals for each ecological zone within the DRC using Globcover2009 as forest/non-forest mask and the FAO ecological zones dataset. Such analysis is more transparent while at the same time leading to "statistically improved" Tier 1 values, potentially allowing a conservative monitoring approach by selecting the lower bound of the confidence interval for emission estimation during the reference period and the higher bound for the assessment period. Within the DRC Baccini generally delivers higher AGB estimates than Saatchi but even Baccini shows between 81t/ha and 143t/ha lower estimates for Tropical Rain Forests and Moist Deciduous Forests respectively than IPCC. While the AGB values for Tropical Dry Forest of both maps are similar to the IPCC, Tropical Mountain Systems cannot easily be compared as their IPCC data lack a mean value. A recent study by Mitchard et al (Carbon Balance and Management, 8, 10, 2013) compared both pan-tropical datasets, pointing out notable differences in the Congo basin. However, their analysis revealed that none of both maps is generally superior. Therefore, we suggest using the average of both maps as a reasonable approximation to the real but unknown AGB values, thus resulting in 213±69t/ha for Tropical Rain Forests, 94±19t/ha for Moist Deciduous Forests, 119±31t/ha for Tropical Dry Forests and 182±61t/ha for Tropical Mountain Systems of the DRC while the corresponding IPCC values are 310t/ha, 260t/ha, 120t/ha and 40-190t/ha.

The comparison of fossil carbon fraction and greenhouse gas emissions through an analysis of exhaust gases from urban solid waste incineration facilities.

PubMed

Kim, Seungjin; Kang, Seongmin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Lee, Seehyung; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2016-10-01

In this study, in order to understand accurate calculation of greenhouse gas emissions of urban solid waste incineration facilities, which are major waste incineration facilities, and problems likely to occur at this time, emissions were calculated by classifying calculation methods into 3 types. For the comparison of calculation methods, the waste characteristics ratio, dry substance content by waste characteristics, carbon content in dry substance, and (12)C content were analyzed; and in particular, CO2 concentration in incineration gases and (12)C content were analyzed together. In this study, 3 types of calculation methods were made through the assay value, and by using each calculation method, emissions of urban solid waste incineration facilities were calculated then compared. As a result of comparison, with Calculation Method A, which used the default value as presented in the IPCC guidelines, greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for the urban solid waste incineration facilities A and B at 244.43 ton CO2/day and 322.09 ton CO2/day, respectively. Hence, it showed a lot of difference from Calculation Methods B and C, which used the assay value of this study. It is determined that this was because the default value as presented in IPCC, as the world average value, could not reflect the characteristics of urban solid waste incineration facilities. Calculation Method B indicated 163.31 ton CO2/day and 230.34 ton CO2/day respectively for the urban solid waste incineration facilities A and B; also, Calculation Method C indicated 151.79 ton CO2/day and 218.99 ton CO2/day, respectively. This study intends to compare greenhouse gas emissions calculated using (12)C content default value provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) with greenhouse gas emissions calculated using (12)C content and waste assay value that can reflect the characteristics of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities. Also, the concentration and (12)C content were calculated by directly collecting incineration gases of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities, and greenhouse gas emissions of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities through this survey were compared with greenhouse gas emissions, which used the previously calculated assay value of solid waste.

Spatial and temporal disaggregation of transport-related carbon dioxide emissions in Bogota - Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez-Gonzalez, L. A.; Jimenez Pizarro, R.; Néstor Y. Rojas, N. Y.

2011-12-01

As a result of rapid urbanization during the last 60 years, 75% of the Colombian population now lives in cities. Urban areas are net sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute significantly to national GHG emission inventories. The development of scientifically-sound GHG mitigation strategies require accurate GHG source and sink estimations. Disaggregated inventories are effective mitigation decision-making tools. The disaggregation process renders detailed information on the distribution of emissions by transport mode, and the resulting a priori emissions map allows for optimal definition of sites for GHG flux monitoring, either by eddy covariance or inverse modeling techniques. Fossil fuel use in transportation is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Bogota. We present estimates of CO2 emissions from road traffic in Bogota using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reference method, and a spatial and temporal disaggregation method. Aggregated CO2 emissions from mobile sources were estimated from monthly and annual fossil fuel (gasoline, diesel and compressed natural gas - CNG) consumption statistics, and estimations of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel use. Although bio-fuel CO2 emissions are considered balanced over annual (or multi-annual) agricultural cycles, we included them since CO2 generated by their combustion would be measurable by a net flux monitoring system. For the disaggregation methodology, we used information on Bogota's road network classification, mean travel speed and trip length for each vehicle category and road type. The CO2 emission factors were taken from recent in-road measurements for gasoline- and CNG-powered vehicles and also estimated from COPERT IV. We estimated emission factors for diesel from surveys on average trip length and fuel consumption. Using IPCC's reference method, we estimate Bogota's total transport-related CO2 emissions for 2008 (reference year) at 4.8 Tg CO2. The disaggregation method estimation is 16% lower, mainly due to uncertainty in activity factors. With only 4% of Bogota's fleet, diesel use accounts for 42% of the CO2 emissions. The emissions are almost evenly shared between public (9% of the fleet) and private transport. Peak emissions occur at 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. with maximum values over a densely industrialized area at the northwest of Bogota. This investigation allowed estimating the relative contribution of fuel and vehicle categories to spatially- and temporally-resolved CO2 emissions. Fuel consumption time series indicate a near-stabilization trend on energy consumption for transportation, which is unexpected taking into account the sustained economic and vehicle fleet growth in Bogota. The comparison of the disaggregation methodology with the IPCC methodology contributes to the analysis of possible error sources on activity factor estimations. This information is very useful for uncertainty estimation and adjustment of primary air pollutant emissions inventories.

Development of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cattle from Benin using IPCC Tier 2 methodology.

PubMed

Kouazounde, J B; Gbenou, J D; Babatounde, S; Srivastava, N; Eggleston, S H; Antwi, C; Baah, J; McAllister, T A

2015-03-01

The objective of this study was to develop emission factors (EF) for methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation in cattle native to Benin. Information on livestock characteristics and diet practices specific to the Benin cattle population were gathered from a variety of sources and used to estimate EF according to Tier 2 methodology of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Most cattle from Benin are Bos taurus represented by Borgou, Somba and Lagune breeds. They are mainly multi-purpose, being used for production of meat, milk, hides and draft power and grazed in open pastures and crop lands comprising tropical forages and crops. Estimated enteric CH4 EFs varied among cattle breeds and subcategory owing to differences in proportions of gross energy intake expended to meet maintenance, production and activity. EFs ranged from 15.0 to 43.6, 16.9 to 46.3 and 24.7 to 64.9 kg CH4/head per year for subcategories of Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. Average EFs for cattle breeds were 24.8, 29.5 and 40.2 kg CH4/head per year for Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. The national EF for cattle from Benin was 39.5 kg CH4/head per year. This estimated EF was 27.4% higher than the default EF suggested by IPCC for African cattle with the exception of dairy cattle. The outcome of the study underscores the importance of obtaining country-specific EF to estimate global enteric CH4 emissions.

Indirect nitrous oxide emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt scale with stream order

PubMed Central

Turner, Peter A.; Griffis, Timothy J.; Lee, Xuhui; Baker, John M.; Venterea, Rodney T.; Wood, Jeffrey D.

2015-01-01

N2O is an important greenhouse gas and the primary stratospheric ozone depleting substance. Its deleterious effects on the environment have prompted appeals to regulate emissions from agriculture, which represents the primary anthropogenic source in the global N2O budget. Successful implementation of mitigation strategies requires robust bottom-up inventories that are based on emission factors (EFs), simulation models, or a combination of the two. Top-down emission estimates, based on tall-tower and aircraft observations, indicate that bottom-up inventories severely underestimate regional and continental scale N2O emissions, implying that EFs may be biased low. Here, we measured N2O emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt using a chamber-based approach and analyzed the data as a function of Strahler stream order (S). N2O fluxes from headwater streams often exceeded 29 nmol N2O-N m−2⋅s−1 and decreased exponentially as a function of S. This relation was used to scale up riverine emissions and to assess the differences between bottom-up and top-down emission inventories at the local to regional scale. We found that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indirect EF for rivers (EF5r) is underestimated up to ninefold in southern Minnesota, which translates to a total tier 1 agricultural underestimation of N2O emissions by 40%. We show that accounting for zero-order streams as potential N2O hotspots can more than double the agricultural budget. Applying the same analysis to the US Corn Belt demonstrates that the IPCC EF5r underestimation explains the large differences observed between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates. PMID:26216994

Geographic Inventory Framework (GiF) for estimating N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture in the province of Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrov, D. D.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

A Geographic Information Framework (GiF) has been created to estimate and map agricultural N2O and CH4 emissions of the province of Alberta, Canada. The GiF consists of a modelling component, a GIS component, and application software to communicate between the model, database and census data. For compatibility, GiF follows the IPCC Tier 1 method and contains census data for animal populations, crop areas, and farms for the main IPCC animal and plant types (dairy cows, cattle cows, pigs, sheep, poultry, other animals, grasses, legumes, other crops), and estimated N2O and CH4 emissions from manure management, enteric fermentation, direct soil emissions (with applied manure, synthetic fertilizer, crop residue degradation, biological fixation) and indirect soil emissions (with atmospheric deposition and leaching). Methane emissions from enteric fermentation (609.24 Gg) prevailed over those from manure (44.99 Gg), and nitrous oxide emission from manure (22.01 Gg) prevailed over those from soil (17.73 Gg), with cattle cows emitting most N2O and CH4, followed by plant N2O emissions, and pigs and dairy cows CH4 emissions. The GIS maps showed discernible pattern of N2O and CH4 emissions increasing from North and West to the central Alberta and then slightly declining to South and East, which could be useful to address various mitigation strategies. The framework allows easy replacement of Tier 1 emission factors by Tire 2 or 3 ones from process-based models. Future applying of the latter will allow accounting for CO2 source/sink strength of agricultural ecosystems, hence their complete GHG balance affected by soil, water, and climate.

Global projections and climate stabilisation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

The Summary for policy makers of the 5th Assessment Report of the Working Group 1 of IPCC has a figure that has no equivalent in previous IPCC assessment reports. This new figure shows the change in global average surface temperature as a function of cumulative anthropogenic emissions of CO2. In this talk I will describe how the concept of transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) that supports that figure emerged from the literature over the recent years and what are the fundamental physical and biogeochemical processes that explain this relationship and its linearity. I will also explore the implication of TCRE for long-term climate change and mitigation strategies as well as the limitations of the concept of TCRE.

Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoyuan; Akiyama, Hiroko; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

2009-06-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH4) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH4 emissions from rice fields, none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore, we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH4 emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this, we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a-1, which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a-1; however, the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season, the CH4 emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a-1. Furthermore, we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a-1 globally. Finally, if both of these mitigation options were adopted, the global CH4 emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a-1. Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH4 reduction associated with draining the fields.

Inclusion of Coastal Wetlands within the Inventory of United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crooks, S.; Wirth, T. C.; Herold, N.; Bernal, B.; Holmquist, J. R.; Troxler, T.; Megonigal, P.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Muth, M.; Emmett-Mattox, S.

2016-12-01

The Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks' (Inventory) chapter on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) reports C stock changes and emissions of CH4 and N2O from forest management, and other land-use/land-use change activities. With the release of the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories: Wetlands (Wetlands Supplement) the United States has begun working to include emissions and removals from management activities on coastal wetlands, and is responding to a request by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for Parties to report back in March 2017 on their country's experience in applying the Wetlands Supplement. To support the EPA, NOAA has formed an interagency and science community group i.e., Coastal Wetland Carbon Working Group (CWCWG). The task of the CWCWG is to conduct an initial IPCC Tier 1-2 baseline assessment of GHG emissions and removals associated with coastal wetlands using the methodologies described in the recently released IPCC Wetlands Supplement for inclusion in the Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2017. The 5 million ha coastal land area of the conterminous United States has been delineated based upon tide stations and LIDAR derived digital elevation model. Land use change within the coastal land area has been calculated from NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), Forest Inventory and National Resource Inventory (NRI). Tier 2 (i.e., country-specific) subnational / climate zone estimates of carbon stocks (including soils), along with carbon sequestration rates and methane emissions rates have been developed from literature. Future opportunities to improve the coastal wetland estimates include: refined quantification of methane emissions from wetlands across the salinity gradient (including mapping of this gradient) and from impounded waters; quantification of impacts of forestry activities on wetland soils; emissions and removals on forested tidally influenced and palustrine wetlands on coastal land areas; the fate of carbon released from eroded wetlands; and the extent of seagrass along with the emissions and removals associated with anthropogenic impacts to them.

Wood waste decomposition in landfills: An assessment of current knowledge and implications for emissions reporting.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jean; Walshe, Dylan; Byrne, Kenneth A

2018-03-01

Large quantities of wood products have historically been disposed of in landfills. The fate of this vast pool of carbon plays an important role in national carbon balances and accurate emission reporting. The Republic of Ireland, like many EU countries, utilises the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for greenhouse gas reporting in the waste sector, which provides default factors for emissions estimation. For wood products, the release of carbon is directly proportional to the decomposition of the degradable organic carbon fraction of the product, for which the IPCC provides a value of 0.5 (50%). However, in situ analytic results of the decomposition rates of carbon in landfilled wood do not corroborate this figure; suggesting that carbon emissions are likely overestimated. To assess the impact of this overestimation on emission reporting, carbon decomposition values obtained from literature and the IPCC default factor were applied to the Irish wood fraction of landfilled waste for the years 1957-2016 and compared. Univariate analysis found a statistically significant difference between carbon (methane) emissions calculated using the IPCC default factor and decomposition factors from direct measurements for softwoods (F = 45.362, p = <.001), hardwoods (F = 20.691, p = <.001) and engineered wood products (U = 4.726, p = <.001). However, there was no significant difference between emissions calculated using only the in situ analytic decomposition factors, regardless of time in landfill, location or subsequently, climate. This suggests that methane emissions from the wood fraction of landfilled waste in Ireland could be drastically overestimated; potentially by a factor of 56. The results of this study highlight the implications of emission reporting at a lower tierand prompts further research into the decomposition of wood products in landfills at a national level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest carbon in North America: annual storage and emissions from British Columbia’s harvest, 1965–2065

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The default international accounting rules estimate the carbon emissions from forest products by assuming all harvest is immediately emitted to the atmosphere. This makes it difficult to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences of different forest management or manufacturing activities that maintain the storage of carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses this issue by allowing other accounting methods. The objective of this paper is to provide a new model for estimating annual stock changes of carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). Results The model, British Columbia Harvested Wood Products version 1 (BC-HWPv1), estimates carbon stocks and fluxes for wood harvested in BC from 1965 to 2065, based on new parameters on local manufacturing, updated and new information for North America on consumption and disposal of wood and paper products, and updated parameters on methane management at landfills in the USA. Based on model results, reporting on emissions as they occur would substantially lower BC’s greenhouse gas inventory in 2010 from 48 Mt CO2 to 26 Mt CO2 because of the long-term forest carbon storage in-use and in the non-degradable material in landfills. In addition, if offset projects created under BC’s protocol reported 100 year cumulative emissions using the BC-HWPv1 the emissions would be lower by about 11%. Conclusions This research showed that the IPCC default methods overestimate the emissions North America wood products. Future IPCC GHG accounting methods could include a lower emissions factor (e.g. 0.52) multiplied by the annual harvest, rather than the current multiplier of 1.0. The simulations demonstrated that the primary opportunities for climate change mitigation are in shifting from burning mill waste to using the wood for longer-lived products. PMID:22828161

Greenhouse gas fluxes from smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelster, David; Merbold, Lutz; Goopy, John; Rufino, Mariana; Rosenstock, Todd; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2017-04-01

Few field studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African agricultural systems, resulting in high uncertainty for national GHG inventories. This lack of data is particularly noticeable in smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa, where low inputs and minimal management are common. We examined the GHG emissions from soils and manure for typical, Kenyan smallholder farms for the duration of one year. Cumulative annual fluxes were low, ranging from -6.0 to 2.4 kg CH4-C ha-1 and -0.1 to 1.8 kg N2O-N ha-1. Management intensity of the plots did not result in differences in annual GHG fluxes measured, likely because of the low fertilizer input rates (< 20 kg N ha-1yr-1). Furthermore, mean CH4 and N2O emissions from manure from two breeds of cattle deposited on rangelands during the dry season were also low, ranging from 95 - 302 mg CH4-C kg DM-1 and 8.3 - 11.5 mg N2O-N kg DM-1. These rates would correspond to emission factors of between 87 and 246 g CH4-C head-1 year-1 and 0.1 - 0.2% of applied N, which were lower than IPCC emission factors; (from 13 to 40% and 10 to 20% of IPCC emission factors for CH4 and N2O respectively).

Identification of Preferential Paths of Fossil Carbon within Water Resource Recovery Facilities via Radiocarbon Analysis.

PubMed

Tseng, Linda Y; Robinson, Alice K; Zhang, Xiaying; Xu, Xiaomei; Southon, John; Hamilton, Andrew J; Sobhani, Reza; Stenstrom, Michael K; Rosso, Diego

2016-11-15

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that all carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions generated by water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) during treatment are modern, based on available literature. Therefore, such emissions were omitted from IPCC's greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting procedures. However, a fraction of wastewater's carbon is fossil in origin. We hypothesized that since the fossil carbon entering municipal WRRFs is mostly from soaps and detergents as dissolved organic matter, its fate can be selectively determined during the universally applied separation treatment processes. Analyzing radiocarbon at different treatment points within municipal WRRFs, we verified that the fossil content could amount to 28% in primary influent and showed varying distribution leaving different unit operations. We recorded the highest proportion of fossil carbon leaving the secondary treatment as off-gas and as solid sludge (averaged 2.08 kg fossil-CO 2 -emission-potential m -3 wastewater treated). By including fossil CO 2 , total GHG emission in municipal WRRFs increased 13%, and 23% if an on-site energy recovery system exists although much of the postdigestion fossil carbon remained in biosolids rather than in biogas, offering yet another carbon sequestration opportunity during biosolids handling. In comparison, fossil carbon contribution to GHG emission can span from negligible to substantial in different types of industrial WRRFs. With such a considerable impact, CO 2 should be analyzed for each WRRF and not omitted from GHG accounting.

IPCC Methodologies for the Waste Sector: Past, Present, and Future

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The reporting of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began more than a decade ago by the signatory countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). National GHG inventories rely on the evolving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) national GHG inventor...

Time series GHG emission estimates for residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, Riya Rachel

2018-04-01

Green House Gas (GHG) emissions are the major cause of global warming and climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main GHG emitted through human activities, at the household level, by burning fuels for cooking and lighting. As per the 2006 methodology of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the energy sector is divided into various sectors like electricity generation, transport, fugitive, 'other' sectors, etc. The 'other' sectors under energy include residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries. Time series GHG emission estimates were prepared for the residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors in India, for the time period 2005 to 2014, to understand the historical emission changes in 'other' sector. Sectoral activity data, with respect to fuel consumption, were collected from various ministry reports like Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Statistics, Energy Statistics, etc. The default emission factor(s) from IPCC 2006 were used to calculate the emissions for each activity and sector-wise CO2, CH4, N2O and CO2e emissions were compiled. It was observed that the residential sector generates the highest GHG emissions, followed by the agriculture/fisheries and commercial sector. In the residential sector, LPG, kerosene, and fuelwood are the major contributors of emissions, whereas diesel is the main contributor to the commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors. CO2e emissions have been observed to rise at a cumulative annual growth rate of 0.6%, 9.11%, 7.94% and 5.26% for the residential, commercial, agriculture and fisheries sectors, respectively. In addition to the above, a comparative study of the sectoral inventories from the national inventories, published by Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, for 2007 and 2010 was also performed.

Establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems in African countries for Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, T. C.; Troxler, T.

2015-12-01

As signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developing countries are required to produce greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories every two years. For many developing countries, including many of those in Africa, this is a significant challenge as it requires establishing a robust and sustainable GHG inventory system. In order to help support these efforts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked in collaboration with the UNFCCC to assist African countries in establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems and generating high-quality inventories on a regular basis. The sectors we have focused on for these GHG inventory capacity building efforts in Africa are Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) as these tend to represent a significant portion of their GHG emissions profile and the data requirements and methodologies are often more complex than for other sectors. To support these efforts, the U.S. EPA has provided technical assistance in understanding the methods in the IPCC Guidelines, assembling activity data and emission factors, including developing land-use maps for representing a country's land base, and implementing the calculations. EPA has also supported development of various tools such as a Template Workbook that helps the country build the institutional arrangement and strong documentation that are necessary for generating GHG inventories on a regular basis, as well as performing other procedures as identified by IPCC Good Practice Guidance such as quality assurance/quality control, key category analysis and archiving. Another tool used in these projects and helps country's implement the methods from the IPCC Guidelines for the Agriculture and LULUCF sectors is the Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) tool. This tool helps countries assemble the activity data and emission factors, including supporting the import of GIS maps, and applying the equations from the IPPC Guidelines to estimate the carbon stock changes and emissions of non-CO2 GHG for all land uses and management practices as identified in the IPCC Guidelines at the Tier 1 or Tier 2 level.

FY 2011 4th Quarter Metric: Estimate of Future Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, D

2011-09-21

The global and annual mean aerosol direct and indirect effects, relative to 1850 conditions, estimated from CESM simulations are 0.02 W m-2 and -0.39 W m-2, respectively, for emissions in year 2100 under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The indirect effect is much smaller than that for 2000 emissions because of much smaller SO2 emissions in 2100; the direct effects are small due to compensation between warming by black carbon and cooling by sulfate.

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wastewater treatment plants using a ground-based remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delre, Antonio; Mønster, Jacob; Scheutz, Charlotte

2016-04-01

The direct release of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) is important because it contributes to the global greenhouse gases (GHGs) release and strongly effects the WWTP carbon footprint. Biological nitrogen removal technologies could increase the direct emission of N2O (IPCC, 2006), while CH4 losses are of environmental, economic and safety concern. Currently, reporting of N2O and CH4 emissions from WWTPs are performed mainly using methods suggested by IPCC which are not site specific (IPCC, 2006). The dynamic tracer dispersion method (TDM), a ground based remote sensing approach implemented at DTU Environment, was demonstrated to be a novel and successful tool for full-scale CH4 and N2O quantification from WWTPs. The method combines a controlled release of tracer gas from the facility with concentration measurements downwind of the plant (Mønster et al., 2014; Yoshida et al., 2014). TDM in general is based on the assumption that a tracer gas released at an emission source, in this case a WWTP, disperses into the atmosphere in the same way as the GHG emitted from process units. Since the ratio of their concentrations remains constant along their atmospheric dispersion, the GHG emission rate can be calculated using the following expression when the tracer gas release rate is known: EGHG=Qtr*(CGHG/Ctr)*(MWGHG/MWtr) EGHG is the GHG emission in mass per time, Qtr is the tracer release in mass per time, CGHG and Ctr are the concentrations measured downwind in parts per billion subtracted of their background values and integrated over the whole plume, and MWGHG and MWtr are the molar weights of GHG and tracer gas respectively (Mønster et al. 2014). In this study, acetylene (C2H2) was used as tracer. Downwind plume concentrations were measured driving along transects with two cavity ring down spectrometers (Yoshida et al., 2014). TDM was successfully applied in different seasons at several Scandinavian WWTPs characterized by different capacity, process unit technologies and locations. The method was applied at plants with different combination of nitrogen removal technologies and sewage sludge treatment. According to the plant capacity and technologies, quantified emissions ranged in the following intervals: from 0.7 to 3.4 kg N2O/h and from 1.1 to 17.6 kg CH4/h. In addition to quantifying the whole emission from the facilities, main sources in the plants were identified. While CH4 was generally emitted from sludge treatment areas, N2O was detected from nitrogen removal technologies both in the main stream and in the side treatment. Process units like biosolids storage and aeration tanks were the only units releasing both GHGs, although in different magnitude. References IPCC, 2006. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 5 - Waste. Mønster, J., Samuelsson, J., Kjeldsen, P., Rella, C.W., Scheutz, C., 2014. Quantifying methane emission from fugitive sources by combining tracer release and downwind measurements - a sensitivity analysis based on multiple field surveys. Waste Manag. 34, 1416-28. doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2014.03.025 Yoshida, H., Mønster, J., Scheutz, C., 2014. Plant-integrated measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from a municipal wastewater treatment plant. Water Res. 1, 108-118. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2014.05.014

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K. C. Benita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or "anthropogenic" activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes...

Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, Alice E.; Glendining, Margaret J.; Bellamy, Pat; Misselbrook, Tom; Gilhespy, Sarah; Rivas Casado, Monica; Hulin, Adele; van Oijen, Marcel; Whitmore, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

The UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture uses a model based on the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods to estimate the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. The inventory calculations are disaggregated at country level (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Before now, no detailed assessment of the uncertainties in the estimates of emissions had been done. We used Monte Carlo simulation to do such an analysis. We collated information on the uncertainties of each of the model inputs. The uncertainties propagate through the model and result in uncertainties in the estimated emissions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that in England and Scotland the uncertainty in the emission factor for emissions from N inputs (EF1) affected uncertainty the most, but that in Wales and Northern Ireland, the emission factor for N leaching and runoff (EF5) had greater influence. We showed that if the uncertainty in any one of these emission factors is reduced by 50%, the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide reduces by 10%. The uncertainty in the estimate for the emissions of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cows and sheep most affected the uncertainty in methane emissions. When inventories are disaggregated (as that for the UK is) correlation between separate instances of each emission factor will affect the uncertainty in emissions. As more countries move towards inventory models with disaggregation, it is important that the IPCC give firm guidance on this topic.

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raftery, Adrian E.; Zimmer, Alec; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Startz, Richard; Liu, Peiran

2017-09-01

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 °C, with median 3.2 °C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2 °C (1.5 °C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a `business as usual' scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 °C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.

From up to date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2017-04-01

This paper provides further compelling evidence for 'an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, stopped by mid-century' (Cai, Lenton & Lontzek, 2016). Atmospheric CO2 which is above 405 ppm (actual and trend) still accelerating, despite flat emissions since 2014, with a 2015 >3ppm unprecedented spike in Earth history (A. Glikson),is on the worst case IPCC scenario. Atmospheric methane is increasing faster than its past 20-year rate, almost on the worst-case IPCC AR5 scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2016). Observed effects of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution are increasing faster. This includes long-lived atmospheric GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, surface average warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, Arctic daily sea ice anomaly, ocean heat (and rate of going deeper), ocean acidification, and ocean de-oxygenation. The atmospheric GHG concentration of 485 ppm CO2 eq (WMO, 2015) commits us to 'about 2°C' equilibrium (AR5). 2°C by 2100 would require 'substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades' (AR5). Instead, the May 2016 UN update on 'intended' national emissions targets under the Paris Agreement projects global emissions will be 16% higher by 2030 and the November 2016 International Energy Agency update projects energy-related CO2 eq emissions will be 30% higher by 2030, leading to 'around 2.7°C by 2100 and above 3°C thereafter'. Climate change feedback will be positive this century and multiple large vulnerable sources of amplifying feedback exist (AR5). 'Extensive tree mortality and widespread forest die-back linked to drought and temperature stress have been documented on all vegetated continents' (AR5). 'Recent studies suggest a weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2' (WMO, 2016). Under all but the best-case IPCC AR5 scenario, surface temperature is projected to increase above 2°C by 2100, which is above 3°C (equilibrium) after 2100, with ocean acidification still increasing at 2100. Ocean heat is increasing under all scenarios at 2100. For all producing regions 'With or without adaptation, negative impacts on average crop yields become likely from the 2030s' (AR5). Crop models do not capture all adverse effects. The climate change of 2030 is practically locked in. NASA NEX downscaled daily maximum temperature projections at 1.5°C are incompatible with today's crop yields in major agricultural regions. Climate-change-related impacts from extreme events are high at 1.5°C (AR5) and add to modeled crop declines. 'Some unique and threatened systems are already at risk from climate change (high confidence)' with 'risk of severe consequences' higher with warming of around 1.5°C (AR5). At today's surface temperature increase, 'risks associated with tipping points become moderate' and 'increase disproportionately' as temperature increases above 1.5°C (AR5). According to mitigation projections, global emissions would decline forthwith for a better than 66% chance of a 2°C limit by 2100 (over 3°C after 2100). Failure to do so would risk the future sustainability of civilization and the human population. The IPCC does not make recommendations so this falls on scientists. By recommending immediate (emergency) massive action on CO2, the science community would make a momentous contribution to the future of humanity.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.

Data Build-up for the Construction of Korean Specific Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory in Livestock Categories.

PubMed

Won, S G; Cho, W S; Lee, J E; Park, K H; Ra, C S

2014-03-01

Many studies on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from livestock industries have revealed that livestock production directly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through enteric fermentation and manure management, which causes negative impacts on animal environment sustainability. In the present study, three essential values for GHG emission were measured; i.e., i) maximum CH4 producing capacity at mesophilic temperature (37°C) from anaerobically stored manure in livestock category (B0,KM, Korean livestock manure for B0), ii) EF3(s) value representing an emission factor for direct N2O emissions from manure management system S in the country, kg N2O-N kg N(-1), at mesophilic (37°C) and thermophilic (55°C) temperatures, and iii) Nex(T) emissions showing annual N excretion for livestock category T, kg N animal(-1) yr(-1), from different livestock manure. Static incubation with and without aeration was performed to obtain the N2O and CH4 emissions from each sample, respectively. Chemical compositions of pre- and post-incubated manure were analyzed. Contents of total solids (% TS) and volatile solid (% VS), and the ratio of carbon to nitrogen (C/N) decrease significantly in all the samples by C-containing biogas generation, whereas moisture content (%) and pH increased after incubation. A big difference of total nitrogen content was not observed in pre- and post-incubation during CH4 and N2O emissions. CH4 emissions (g CH4 kg VS(-1)) from all the three manures (sows, layers and Korean cattle) were different and high C/N ratio resulted in high CH4 emission. Similarly, N2O emission was found to be affected by % VS, pH, and temperature. The B0,KM values for sows, layers, and Korean cattle obtained at 37°C are 0.0579, 0.0006, and 0.0828 m(3) CH4 kg VS(-1), respectively, which are much less than the default values in IPCC guideline (GL) except the value from Korean cattle. For sows and Korean cattle, Nex(T) values of 7.67 and 28.19 kg N yr(-1), respectively, are 2.5 fold less than those values in IPCC GL as well. However, Nex(T) value of layers 0.63 kg N yr(-1) is very similar to the default value of 0.6 kg N yr(-1) in IPCC GLs for National greenhouse gas inventories for countries such as South Korea/Asia. The EF3(s) value obtained at 37°C and 55°C were found to be far less than the default value.

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Estimates of N2O, NO and NH3 Emissions From Croplands in East, Southeast and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, X.; Ohara, T.; Akimoto, H.

2002-12-01

Agricultural activities have greatly altered the global nitrogen cycle and produced nitrogenous gases of environmentally significance. More than half of the global chemical nitrogen fertilizer is used for crop production in East, Southeast and South Asia where rice the center of nutrition. Emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO) and ammonia (NH3) from croplands in this region were estimated by considering both background emission and emissions resulted from nitrogen added to croplands, including chemical nitrogen, animal manure used as fertilizer, biological fixed nitrogen and nitrogen in crop residue returned to field. Background emission fluxes of N2O and NO from croplands were estimated at 1.16 and 0.52 kg N ha-1yr-1, respectively. A fertilizer-induced N2O emission factor of 1.25% for upland was adopted from IPCC guidelines, and a factor of 0.25% was derived for paddy field from measurements. Total N2O emission from croplands in the region was estimated at 1.16 Tg N yr-1, with 41% contributed by background emission which was not considered in previous global estimates. However, the average fertilizer-induced N2O emission is only 0.93%, lower than the default IPCC value of 1.25% due to the low emission factor from paddy field. A fertilizer-induced NO emission factor of 0.66% for upland was derived from field measurements, and a factor of 0.13% was assumed for paddy field. Total NO emission was 572 Gg N yr-1 in the region, with 38% due to background emission. Average fertilizer-induce NO emission factor was 0.48%. Extrapolating this estimate to global scale will result in a global NO emission from cropland of 1.6 Tg N yr-1, smaller than other global estimates. Total NH3 emission was estimated at 11.8 Tg N yr-1. The use of urea and ammonium bicarbonate and the cultivation of rice lead to a high average NH3 loss rate of chemical fertilizer in the region. Emissions were distributed at 0.5° grid by using a global landuse database.

Agricultural soil greenhouse gas emissions: a review of national inventory methods.

PubMed

Lokupitiya, Erandathie; Paustian, Keith

2006-01-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are required to submit national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, together with information on methods used in estimating their emissions. Currently agricultural activities contribute a significant portion (approximately 20%) of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, and agricultural soils have been identified as one of the main GHG source categories within the agricultural sector. However, compared to many other GHG sources, inventory methods for soils are relatively more complex and have been implemented only to varying degrees among member countries. This review summarizes and evaluates the methods used by Annex 1 countries in estimating CO2 and N2O emissions in agricultural soils. While most countries utilize the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default methodology, several Annex 1 countries are developing more advanced methods that are tailored for specific country circumstances. Based on the latest national inventory reporting, about 56% of the Annex 1 countries use IPCC Tier 1 methods, about 26% use Tier 2 methods, and about 18% do not estimate or report N2O emissions from agricultural soils. More than 65% of the countries do not report CO2 emissions from the cultivation of mineral soils, organic soils, or liming, and only a handful of countries have used country-specific, Tier 3 methods. Tier 3 methods usually involve process-based models and detailed, geographically specific activity data. Such methods can provide more robust, accurate estimates of emissions and removals but require greater diligence in documentation, transparency, and uncertainty assessment to ensure comparability between countries. Availability of detailed, spatially explicit activity data is a major constraint to implementing higher tiered methods in many countries.

Nitrous oxide emission factors from N-fertilizer in sugarcane production in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galdos, M. V.; Siqueira Neto, M.; Feigl, B. J.; Carvalho, J. L.; Cerri, C. E.; Cerri, C. C.

2013-12-01

The Brazilian sugarcane production is rapidly expanding due to the increase of global demand for ethanol. Concurrently the necessary inputs to culture, especially N-fertilizer, are growing, since N is one of the key element to maintain sugarcane productivity. However, it is known that N-fertilizer is responsible for the largest share of N2O emissions from agricultural soils. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) estimated that under favorable climatic conditions approximately 1% of the N-fertilizer applied can be emitted as N2O. Our goal was to estimate N2O emission factors from N-fertilizer used in the sugarcane ratoon for ethanol production. A field study was conducted at the Capuava Mill, located in southeastern Brazil. The experimental design was completely randomized, with four replications in a factorial scheme (2 x 2): two N sources (urea and ammonium nitrate), two application rates (80 and 120 kg ha-1), and a control treatment. N2O concentrations were determined by gas chromatography using a Shimadzu© GC-mini. N2O fluxes were calculated from linear regressions of concentration versus incubation time in the soil static chambers. The N2O emission factor of N-fertilizer was calculated according to the methodology described in the Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC). Comparatively, ammonium nitrate emitted 45 to 75% less N2O than urea application. There was no significant difference in N2O emission between the two applied rates of urea. Also the N2O emission factor of ammonium nitrate (0.3×0.2%) was lower than that of urea (1.1×0.4%). Our results indicated that on average the N fertilization of sugarcane plantation has an emission factor of 0.7×0.5% suggesting that N-fertilizer management can be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to improve the sustainability of bioethanol from sugarcane.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny

2007-04-30

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change,more » - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.« less

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Comparison of Greenhouse Gas Emissions between Two Dairy Farm Systems (Conventional vs. Organic Management) in New Hampshire Using the Manure DNDC Biogeochemical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorich, C.; Contosta, A.; Li, C.; Brito, A.; Varner, R. K.

2013-12-01

Agriculture contributes 20 to 25 % of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. These agricultural emissions are primarily in the form of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) with these GHG accounting for roughly 40 and 80 % of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O, respectively. Due to varied management and the complexities of agricultural ecosystems, it is difficult to estimate these CH4 and N2O emissions. The IPCC emission factors can be used to yield rough estimates of CH4 and N2O emissions but they are often based on limited data. Accurate modeling validated by measurements is needed in order to identify potential mitigation areas, reduce GHG emissions from agriculture, and improve sustainability of farming practices. The biogeochemical model Manure DNDC was validated using measurements from two dairy farms in New Hampshire, USA in order to quantify GHG emissions under different management systems. One organic and one conventional dairy farm operated by the University of New Hampshire's Agriculture Experiment Station were utilized as the study sites for validation of Manure DNDC. Compilation of management records started in 2011 to provide model inputs. Model results were then compared to field collected samples of soil carbon and nitrogen, above-ground biomass, and GHG fluxes. Fluxes were measured in crop, animal, housing, and waste management sites on the farms in order to examine the entire farm ecosystem and test the validity of the model. Fluxes were measured by static flux chambers, with enteric fermentation measurements being conducted by the SF6 tracer test as well as a new method called Greenfeeder. Our preliminary GHG flux analysis suggests higher emissions than predicted by IPCC emission factors and equations. Results suggest that emissions from manure management is a key concern at the conventional dairy farm while bedded housing at the organic dairy produced large quantities of GHG.

GHG and black carbon emission inventories from Mezquital Valley: The main energy provider for Mexico Megacity.

PubMed

Montelongo-Reyes, M M; Otazo-Sánchez, E M; Romo-Gómez, C; Gordillo-Martínez, A J; Galindo-Castillo, E

2015-09-15

The greenhouse gases and black carbon emission inventory from IPCC key category Energy was accomplished for the Mezquital Valley, one of the most polluted regions in Mexico, as the Mexico City wastewater have been continuously used in agricultural irrigation for more than a hundred years. In addition, thermoelectric, refinery, cement and chemistry industries are concentrated in the southern part of the valley, near Mexico City. Several studies have reported air, soil, and water pollution data and its main sources for the region. Paradoxically, these sources contaminate the valley, but boosted its economic development. Nevertheless, no research has been done concerning GHG emissions, or climate change assessment. This paper reports inventories performed by the 1996 IPCC methodology for the baseline year 2005. Fuel consumption data were derived from priority sectors such as electricity generation, refineries, manufacturing & cement industries, transportation, and residential use. The total CO2 emission result was 13,894.9 Gg, which constituted three-quarters of Hidalgo statewide energy category. The principal CO2 sources were energy transformation (69%) and manufacturing (19%). Total black carbon emissions were estimated by a bottom-up method at 0.66 Gg. The principal contributor was on-road transportation (37%), followed by firewood residential consumption (26%) and cocked brick manufactures (22%). Non-CO2 gas emissions were also significant, particularly SO2 (255.9 Gg), which accounts for 80% of the whole Hidalgo State emissions. Results demonstrated the negative environmental impact on Mezquital Valley, caused by its role as a Megacity secondary fuel and electricity provider, as well as by the presence of several cement industries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding the origins of uncertainty in landscape-scale variations of emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, Alice; Haskard, Kathy; Webster, Colin; Truan, Imogen; Goulding, Keith

2014-05-01

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas which is over 300 times more radiatively effective than carbon dioxide. In the UK, the agricultural sector is estimated to be responsible for over 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, with these emissions resulting from livestock and farmers adding nitrogen fertilizer to soils. For the purposes of reporting emissions to the IPCC, the estimates are calculated using simple models whereby readily-available national or international statistics are combined with IPCC default emission factors. The IPCC emission factor for direct emissions of nitrous oxide from soils has a very large uncertainty. This is primarily because the variability of nitrous oxide emissions in space is large and this results in uncertainty that may be regarded as sample noise. To both reduce uncertainty through improved modelling, and to communicate an understanding of this uncertainty, we must understand the origins of the variation. We analysed data on nitrous oxide emission rate and some other soil properties collected from a 7.5-km transect across contrasting land uses and parent materials in eastern England. We investigated the scale-dependence and spatial uniformity of the correlations between soil properties and emission rates from farm to landscape scale using wavelet analysis. The analysis revealed a complex pattern of scale-dependence. Emission rates were strongly correlated with a process-specific function of the water-filled pore space at the coarsest scale and nitrate at intermediate and coarsest scales. We also found significant correlations between pH and emission rates at the intermediate scales. The wavelet analysis showed that these correlations were not spatially uniform and that at certain scales changes in parent material coincided with significant changes in correlation. Our results indicate that, at the landscape scale, nitrate content and water-filled pore space are key soil properties for predicting nitrous oxide emissions and should therefore be incorporated into process models and emission factors for inventory calculations.

Introduction to the SONEX (Subsonic Assessment Ozone and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment) and POLINAT-2 (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) Special Issue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Singh, Hanwant B.; Schlager, Hans; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Emissions of atmospheric species from the engines of subsonic aircraft at cruise altitude (roughly, above seven kilometers) are of concern to scientists, the aviation industry and policymakers for two reasons. First, water vapor, soot and sulfur oxides, and related heterogeneous processes, may modify clouds and aerosols enough to perturb radiative forcing in the UT/LS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere). A discussion of these phenomena appears in Chapter 3 of the IPCC Aviation Assessment (1999). An airborne campaign conducted to evaluate aviation effects on contrail, cirrus and cloud formation, is described in Geophysical Research Letters. The second concern arises from subsonic aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NO(sub x)), CO, and hydrocarbons. These species may add to the background mixture of photochemically reactive species that form ozone. In the UT/LS, ozone is a highly effective greenhouse gas. The impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions on tropospheric NO(sub x) and ozone budgets have been studied with models that focus on UT chemistry [e.g. see discussions of individual models in Brasseur et al., 1998; Friedl et al., 1997; IPCC, 1999]. Depending on the model used, projected increases in the global subsonic aircraft fleet from 1992 to 2015 will lead to a 50-100 pptv increase in UT/LS NO. at 12 km (compared to 50-150 pptv background) in northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The corresponding 12-km ozone increase is 7-11 ppbv, or 5-10% (Chapter 4 in IPCC, 1999). Two major sources of uncertainties in model estimates of aviation effects are: (1) the often limited degree to which global models - the scale required to evaluate aircraft emissions - realistically simulate atmospheric transport and other physical processes; (2) limited UT/LS observations of trace gases with which to evaluate model performance. In response to the latter deficiency, a number of airborne campaigns aimed at elucidating the effect of aircraft on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone were performed between 1990 and 1996 (see descriptions in Friedl et al., 1997; Brasseur et al., 1998).

Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management in Vientiane, Lao PDR.

PubMed

Babel, Sandhya; Vilaysouk, Xaysackda

2016-01-01

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is one of the major environmental problems throughout the world including in Lao PDR. In Vientiane, due to the lack of a collection service, open burning and illegal dumping are commonly practised. This study aims to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the current situation of MSW management (MSWM) in Vientiane and proposes an alternative solution to reduce the GHG emission and environmental impacts. The 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC 2006 model) are used for the estimation of GHG emission from landfill and composting. For the estimation of GHG emission from open burning, the Atmospheric Brown Clouds Emission Inventory Manual (ABC EIM) is used. In Vientiane, a total of 232, 505 tonnes year(-1) of MSW was generated in 2011. Waste generation in Vientiane is 0.69 kg per capita per day, and about 31% of the total MSW generated was directly sent to landfill (71,162 tonnes year(-1)). The total potential GHG emission from the baseline scenario in 2011 was 110,182 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq, which is 0.15 tonne year(-1) CO2-eq per capita. From the three MSWM scenarios proposed, scenario S3, which includes recycling, composting and landfilling, seems to be an effective solution for dealing with MSW in Vientiane with less air pollution, and is environmentally friendly. The total GHG emission in scenario S3 is reduced to 91,920 tonnes year(-1) CO2-eq (47% reduction), compared with the S1 scenario where all uncollected waste is diverted to landfill. © The Author(s) 2015.

2004 Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Manure Management in South Africa

PubMed Central

Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond; Tongwane, Mphethe Isaac

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Livestock manure management is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa producing mainly methane and nitrous oxide. The emissions from this sub-category are dependent on how manure is stored. Liquid-stored manure predominantly produces methane while dry-based manure enhances mainly production of nitrous oxide. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines were utilized at different tier levels in estimating GHG emissions from manure management. The results show that methane emissions are relatively higher than nitrous oxide emissions with 3104 Gg and 2272 Gg respectively in carbon dioxide global warming equivalent. Abstract Manure management in livestock makes a significant contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions in the Agriculture; Forestry and Other Land Use category in South Africa. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions are prevalent in contrasting manure management systems; promoting anaerobic and aerobic conditions respectively. In this paper; both Tier 1 and modified Tier 2 approaches of the IPCC guidelines are utilized to estimate the emissions from South African livestock manure management. Activity data (animal population, animal weights, manure management systems, etc.) were sourced from various resources for estimation of both emissions factors and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide. The results show relatively high methane emissions factors from manure management for mature female dairy cattle (40.98 kg/year/animal), sows (25.23 kg/year/animal) and boars (25.23 kg/year/animal). Hence, contributions for pig farming and dairy cattle are the highest at 54.50 Gg and 32.01 Gg respectively, with total emissions of 134.97 Gg (3104 Gg CO2 Equivalent). Total nitrous oxide emissions are estimated at 7.10 Gg (2272 Gg CO2 Equivalent) and the three main contributors are commercial beef cattle; poultry and small-scale beef farming at 1.80 Gg; 1.72 Gg and 1.69 Gg respectively. Mitigation options from manure management must be taken with care due to divergent conducive requirements of methane and nitrous oxide emissions requirements. PMID:26479229

Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

Whole farm quantification of GHG emissions within smallholder farms in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebauer, Matthias

2014-03-01

The IPCC has compiled the best available scientific methods into published guidelines for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and emission removals from the land-use sector. In order to evaluate existing GHG quantification tools to comprehensively quantify GHG emissions and removals in smallholder conditions, farm scale quantification was tested with farm data from Western Kenya. After conducting a cluster analysis to identify different farm typologies GHG quantification was exercised using the VCS SALM methodology complemented with IPCC livestock emission factors and the cool farm tool. The emission profiles of four farm clusters representing the baseline conditions in the year 2009 are compared with 2011 where farmers adopted sustainable land management practices (SALM). The results demonstrate the variation in both the magnitude of the estimated GHG emissions per ha between different smallholder farm typologies and the emissions estimated by applying two different accounting tools. The farm scale quantification further shows that the adoption of SALM has a significant impact on emission reduction and removals and the mitigation benefits range between 4 and 6.5 tCO2 ha-1 yr-1 with significantly different mitigation benefits depending on typologies of the crop-livestock systems, their different agricultural practices, as well as adoption rates of improved practices. However, the inherent uncertainty related to the emission factors applied by accounting tools has substantial implications for reported agricultural emissions. With regard to uncertainty related to activity data, the assessment confirms the high variability within different farm types as well as between different parameters surveyed to comprehensively quantify GHG emissions within smallholder farms.

Verifying the UK N_{2}O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, Ed; Meneguz, Elena; Skiba, Ute; Misselbrook, Tom; Cardenas, Laura; Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair; Dragosits, Ulli

2016-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential ˜300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates (e.g. agricultural management data), in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and a revised approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the revised approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (www.ghgplatform.org.uk, Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E England; Ridge Hill, W England; Mace Head, W Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to fit with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of fertiliser application and land spreading of manures. The model run using the 'experimental' approach was found to give a closer agreement with the observed data.

N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crutzen, P. J.; Mosier, A. R.; Smith, K. A.; Winiwarter, W.

2007-08-01

The relationship, on a global basis, between the amount of N fixed by chemical, biological or atmospheric processes entering the terrestrial biosphere, and the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O), has been re-examined, using known global atmospheric removal rates and concentration growth of N2O as a proxy for overall emissions. The relationship, in both the pre-industrial period and in recent times, after taking into account the large-scale changes in synthetic N fertiliser production and deforestation, is consistent, showing an overall conversion factor of 3-5%. This factor is covered only in part by the ~1% of "direct" emissions from agricultural crop lands estimated by IPCC (2006), or the "indirect" emissions cited therein. This means that the extra N2O entering the atmosphere as a result of using N to produce crops for biofuels will also be correspondingly greater than that estimated just on the basis of IPCC (2006). When the extra N2O emission from biofuel production is calculated in "CO2-equivalent" global warming terms, and compared with the quasi-cooling effect of "saving" emissions of fossil fuel derived CO2, the outcome is that the production of commonly used biofuels, such as biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings. Crops with less N demand, such as grasses and woody coppice species have more favourable climate impacts. This analysis only considers the conversion of biomass to biofuel. It does not take into account the use of fossil fuel on the farms and for fertilizer and pesticide production, but it also neglects the production of useful co-products. Both factors partially compensate each other. This needs to be analyzed in a full life cycle assessment.

Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Vanessa; Svardal, Karl

2016-04-01

Operating wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) represent a source of greenhouse gases (GHG). Direct GHG emissions include emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) that can be biologically produced during wastewater and sewage sludge treatment. This is also highlighted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2006) guidelines used for national GHG inventories. Indirect GHG emissions occur at WWTPs mainly by the consumption of electricity, fossil fuel for transportation and by the use of chemicals (e.g. coagulants). In this study, the impact of direct and indirect GHG emissions was quantified for two model WWTPs of 50.000 person equivalents (p.e.) using carbon footprint analyses. It was assumed that at one WWTP sewage sludge is digested anaerobically, at the other one it is aerobically stabilised in the activated sludge tank. The carbon footprint analyses were performed using literature emission factors. A new estimation model based on measurements at eight Austrian WWTPs was used for the assessment of N2O direct emissions (Parravicini et al., 2015). The results of the calculations show that, under the selected assumptions, the direct N2O emission from the activated sludge tank can dominate the carbon footprint of WWTP with a poor nitrogen removal efficiency. Through an improved operation of nitrogen removal several advantages can be gained: direct N2O emissions can be reduced, the energy demand for aeration can be decreased and a higher effluent quality can be achieved. Anaerobic digesters and anaerobic sludge storage tanks can become a relevant source of direct CH4 emissions. Minimising of CH4 losses from these sources improves the carbon footprint of the WWTP also increasing the energy yield achievable by combusting this renewable energy carrier in a combined heat and power unit. The estimated carbon footprint of the model WWTPs lies between 20 and 40 kg CO2e/p.e./a. This corresponds to 0.2 to 0.4% of the CO2e average emission caused yearly by a person in Germany or Austria (10.6 t CO2e/p/a, UBA, 2016). The results indicate that GHG emissions from WWTP have at global scale a small impact, as also highlighted by the Austrian national inventory report (NIR, 2015), where the estimated CO2e emissions from WWTPs account for only 0.23% of the total CO2e emission in Austria. References IPCC (2006). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program, Eggleston H.S., Buendia L., Miwa K., Ngara T. and Anabe K. (eds). Published: IGES, Japan. http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/. NIR (2015). Austria's National Inventory Report 2015. Submission under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and under the Kyoto Protocol. Reports, Band 0552, ISBN: 978-3-99004-364-6, Umweltbundesamt, Wien. Parravicini V., Valkova T., Haslinger J., Saracevic E., Winkelbauer A., Tauber J., Svardal K., Hohenblum P., Clara M., Windhofer G., Pazdernik K., Lampert C. (2015). Reduktionspotential bei den Lachgasemissionen aus Kläranlagen durch Optimierung des Betriebes (ReLaKO). The research project was financially supported by the Ministry for agriculture, forestry, Environment and Water Management. Project leader: TU Wien, Institute for Water Quality, Ressources and Waste Management; Project partner: Umweltbundesamt GmbH. Final report: http://www.bmlfuw.gv.at/service/publikationen/wasser/Lachgasemissionen---Kl-ranlagen.html. UBA (2016). German average carbon footprint. Umweltbundesamt, Januar 2016, http://uba.klimaktiv-co2-rechner.de/de_DE/page/footprint/

Methane emissions from a landfill in north-east India: Performance of various landfill gas emission models.

PubMed

Gollapalli, Muralidhar; Kota, Sri Harsha

2018-03-01

Rapid urbanization and economic growth has led to significant increase in municipal solid waste generation in India during the last few decades and its management has become a major issue because of poor waste management practices. Solid waste generated is deposited into open dumping sites with hardly any segregation and processing. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) are the major greenhouse gases that are released from the landfill sites due to the biodegradation of organic matter. In this present study, CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from a landfill in north-east India are estimated using a flux chamber during September, 2015 to August, 2016. The average emission rates of CH 4 and CO 2 are 68 and 92 mg/min/m 2 , respectively. The emissions are highest in the summer whilst being lowest in winter. The diurnal variation of emissions indicated that the emissions follow a trend similar to temperature in all the seasons. Correlation coefficients of CH 4 and temperature in summer, monsoon and winter are 0.99, 0.87 and 0.97, respectively. The measured CH 4 in this study is in the range of other studies around the world. Modified Triangular Method (MTM), IPCC model and the USEPA Landfill gas emissions model (LandGEM) were used to predict the CH 4 emissions during the study year. The consequent simulation results indicate that the MTM, LandGEM-Clean Air Act, LandGEM-Inventory and IPCC models predict 1.9, 3.3, 1.6 and 1.4 times of the measured CH 4 emission flux in this study. Assuming that this higher prediction of CH 4 levels observed in this study holds well for other landfills in this region, a new CH 4 emission inventory (Units: Tonnes/year), with a resolution of 0.1 0  × 0.1 0 has been developed. This study stresses the importance of biodegradable composition of waste and meteorology, and also points out the drawbacks of the widely used landfill emission models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age Legacy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2016-12-01

Relying on the IPCC Assessments, this paper assesses legacy from total committed global warming over centuries, correlated with comprehensive projected impacts. Socio-economic inertia, climate system inertia, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, amplifying feedback emissions, and unmasking of cooling aerosols are determinants. Stabilization of global temperature (and ocean acidification for CO2) requires emissions of "long lived greenhouse gases" to be "about zero," including feedbacks. "The feedback … is positive" this century; many large feedback sources tend to be self- and inter-reinforcing. Only timely total conversion of all fossil fuel power to clean, virtually zero-carbon renewable power can achieve virtual zero carbon emissions. This results in multiple, increasing benefits for the entire world population of today's and all future generations, as laid out here. Conversions of methane- and nitrous oxide-emitting sources have large benefits. Without timely conversion to virtual zero emissions, the global climate and ocean disruptions are predicted to become progressively more severe and practically irreversible. "Continued emission of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems." Crop yields in all main food-producing regions are projected to decline progressively with rising temperature (as proxy to multiple adverse effects) (AR5). Ocean heating, acidification, and de-oxygenation are projected to increase under all scenarios, as is species extinction. The legacy for humanity depends on reducing long-lived global emissions fast enough to virtual zero. Today's surface warming with unprecedented and accelerating atmospheric GHG concentrations requires an immediate response. The only IPCC scenario to possibly meet this and not exceed 2ºC by and after 2100 is the best-case RCP2.6, which requires CO2 eq. emissions to peak right away and decline at the latest by 2020.

Advancing Methods for Estimating Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Incorporating Freeze-Thaw Cycles into a Tier 3 Model-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; DelGrosso, S.; Parton, W. J.

2017-12-01

Soil nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural management are a key source of greenhouse gas emissions in many countries due to the widespread use of nitrogen fertilizers, manure amendments from livestock production, planting legumes and other practices that affect N dynamics in soils. In the United States, soil nitrous oxide emissions have ranged from 250 to 280 Tg CO2 equivalent from 1990 to 2015, with uncertainties around 20-30 percent. A Tier 3 method has been used to estimate the emissions with the DayCent ecosystem model. While the Tier 3 approach is considerably more accurate than IPCC Tier 1 methods, there is still the possibility of biases in emission estimates if there are processes and drivers that are not represented in the modeling framework. Furthermore, a key principle of IPCC guidance is that inventory compilers estimate emissions as accurately as possible. Freeze-thaw cycles and associated hot moments of nitrous oxide emissions are one of key drivers influencing emissions in colder climates, such as the cold temperate climates of the upper Midwest and New England regions of the United States. Freeze-thaw activity interacts with management practices that are increasing N availability in the plant-soil system, leading to greater nitrous oxide emissions during transition periods from winter to spring. Given the importance of this driver, the DayCent model has been revised to incorproate freeze-thaw cycles, and the results suggests that including this driver can significantly modify the emissions estimates in cold temperate climate regions. Consequently, future methodological development to improve estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soils would benefit from incorporating freeze-thaw cycles into the modeling framework for national territories with a cold climate.

Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded Lands

EPA Science Inventory

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a method...

The Obama - Xi Accord: A Need for Further Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribett, W. R.; Hope, A. P.; Canty, T. P.; Salawitch, R. J.

2015-12-01

Presidents Barrack Obama of the United States and Jinping Xi of China recently announced a bilateral framework to reduce the total carbon emissions of their respective countries. The U.S. agreed to reduce annual carbon emissions such that by 2025, emissions would be 27% below 2005 levels. China agreed to achieve peak carbon emissions around 2030 coupled with a best effort to peak early. Here we analyze the implications of the Obama-Xi accord for total global carbon emissions (GCE) out to year 2060, using projections of population, economic growth, and carbon intensity for the rest of the world as well as various assumptions regarding how emissions from the U.S. and China will evolve after the timeframe of the Obama-Xi accord. Our GCE projections will be compared to those of the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The Obama-Xi accord is shown to be a meaningful first step: if followed, the actual GCE will likely fall below RCP 8.5 between now and 2060. The U.S., China, and rest of the world presently emit 4.5, 2.0, and 1.1 tonne of carbon per person per year (tpy), respectively. We show that if the world's nations adopt a strategy of "Contraction and Convergence", such that per capita emission for each country reaches 1.0 tpy by 2060, actual GCE will approach that of RCP 4.5 by year 2060. Such action may be needed to reduce the risk of the most dire global warming forecasts within IPCC AR5.

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the U.S., such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. Thi...

The researches on energy sustainability in Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Zhu, Zhiqiang; Zhang, Shuang

2018-06-01

Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today's greenhouse gas emissions, is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and slowing global warming. In this paper, the IPCC-recommended reference approach and scenario analysis were applied to evaluate dynamic change of the energy supply and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions within the period of 2000-2025 in Northern China (NC). The results show that energy importing reliance reached 85% in 2015 and the energy structure has become more diversified in NC. In addition, the per-capita CO2 emission is significantly higher while carbon intensity is lower than those of the national average. Under the LC scenario, CO2 emissions begin to fall for the first time in 2022. Hence, if Energy-Saving and Emission-Reduction strategy and regional planning for NC are implemented fully, NC will achieve the national emission reduction targets in 2025 and will have a large CO2 mitigation potential in the future.

Partitioning Residue-derived and Residue-induced Emissions of N2O Using 15N-labelled Crop Residues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, R. E.; Carverhill, J.; Lemke, R.; Knight, J. D.

2014-12-01

Estimates of N2O emissions in Canada indicate that 17% of all agriculture-based emissions are associated with the decomposition of crop residues. However, research specific to the western Canadian prairies (including Saskatchewan) has shown that the N2O emission factor for N sources in this region typically ranges between 0.2 and 0.6%, which is well below the current IPCC default emission factor of 1.0%. Thus, it stands to reason that emissions from crop residues should also be lower than those calculated using the current IPCC emission factor. Current data indicates that residue decomposition, N mineralization and N2O production are affected by a number of factors such as C:N ratio and chemical composition of the residue, soil type, and soil water content; thus, a bench-scale incubation study was conducted to examine the effects of soil type and water content on N2O emissions associated with the decomposition of different crop residues. The study was carried out using soils from the Black, Dark Brown, Brown, and Gray soil zones and was conducted at both 50% and 70% water-filled pore space (WFPS); the soils were amended with 15N-labeled residues of wheat, pea, canola, and flax, or with an equivalent amount of 15N-labeled urea; 15N2O production was monitored using a Picarro G5101-i isotopic N2O analyzer. Crop residue additions to the soils resulted in both direct and indirect emissions of N2O, with residue derived emissions (RDE; measured as 15N2O) generally exceeding residue-induced emissions (RIE) at 50% WFPS—with RDEs ranging from 42% to 88% (mean = 58%) of the total N2O. Conversely, at 70% WFPS, RDEs were generally lower than RIEs—ranging from 21% to 83% (mean = 48%). Whereas both water content and soil type had an impact on N2O production, there was a clear and consistent trend in the emission factors for the residues; i.e., emissions were always greatest for the canola residue and lowest for the wheat residue and urea fertilizer; and intermediate for pea and flax. Results of this research demonstrate that—under the right environmental conditions—there is considerable potential for both direct and indirect N2O emissions during crop residue decomposition. Moreover, emission factors for the various crop residues tended to increase in the order: wheat ≤ urea < pea < flax << canola.

Preliminary Evaluation of Method to Monitor Landfills Resilience against Methane Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chusna, Noor Amalia; Maryono, Maryono

2018-02-01

Methane emission from landfill sites contribute to global warming and un-proper methane treatment can pose an explosion hazard. Stakeholder and government in the cities in Indonesia been found significant difficulties to monitor the resilience of landfill from methane emission. Moreover, the management of methane gas has always been a challenging issue for long waste management service and operations. Landfills are a significant contributor to anthropogenic methane emissions. This study conducted preliminary evaluation of method to manage methane gas emission by assessing LandGem and IPCC method. From the preliminary evaluation, this study found that the IPCC method is based on the availability of current and historical country specific data regarding the waste disposed of in landfills while from the LandGEM method is an automated tool for estimating emission rates for total landfill gas this method account total gas of methane, carbon dioxide and other. The method can be used either with specific data to estimate emissions in the site or default parameters if no site-specific data are available. Both of method could be utilize to monitor the methane emission from landfill site in cities of Central Java.

Influence of updating global emission inventory of black carbon on evaluation of the climate and health impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Ciais, Philippe

2013-04-01

Black carbon (BC) is an air component of particular concern in terms of air quality and climate change. Black carbon emissions are often estimated based on the fuel data and emission factors. However, large variations in emission factors reported in the literature have led to a high uncertainty in previous inventories. Here, we develop a new global 0.1°×0.1° BC emission inventory for 2007 with full uncertainty analysis based on updated source and emission factor databases. Two versions of LMDz-OR-INCA models, named as INCA and INCA-zA, are run to evaluate the new emission inventory. INCA is built up based on a regular grid system with a resolution of 1.27° in latitude and 2.50° in longitude, while INCA-zA is specially zoomed to 0.51°×0.66° (latitude×longitude) in Asia. By checking against field observations, we compare our inventory with ACCMIP, which is used by IPCC in the 5th assessment report, and also evaluate the influence of model resolutions. With the newly calculated BC air concentrations and the nested model, we estimate the direct radiative forcing of BC and the premature death and mortality rate induced by BC exposure with Asia emphasized. Global BC direct radiative forcing at TOA is estimated to be 0.41 W/m2 (0.2 - 0.8 as inter-quartile range), which is 17% higher than that derived from the inventory adopted by IPCC-AR5 (0.34 W/m2). The estimated premature deaths induced by inhalation exposure to anthropogenic BC (0.36 million in 2007) and the percentage of high risk population are higher than those previously estimated. Ninety percents of the global total anthropogenic PD occur in Asia with 0.18 and 0.08 million deaths in China and India, respectively.

Emission of greenhouse gases from waste incineration in Korea.

PubMed

Hwang, Kum-Lok; Choi, Sang-Min; Kim, Moon-Kyung; Heo, Jong-Bae; Zoh, Kyung-Duk

2017-07-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors previously reported from various waste incineration plants have shown significant variations according to country-specific, plant-specific, and operational conditions. The purpose of this study is to estimate GHG emissions and emission factors at nine incineration facilities in Korea by measuring the GHG concentrations in the flue gas samples. The selected incineration plants had different operation systems (i.e., stoker, fluidized bed, moving grate, rotary kiln, and kiln & stoker), and different nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal systems (i.e., selective catalytic reduction (SCR) and selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR)) to treat municipal solid waste (MSW), commercial solid waste (CSW), and specified waste (SW). The total mean emission factors for A and B facilities for MSW incineration were found to be 134 ± 17 kg CO 2 ton -1 , 88 ± 36 g CH 4 ton -1 , and 69 ± 16 g N 2 O ton -1 , while those for CSW incineration were 22.56 g CH 4 ton -1 and 259.76 g N 2 O ton -1 , and for SW incineration emission factors were 2959 kg CO 2 ton -1 , 43.44 g CH 4 ton -1 and 401.21 g N 2 O ton -1 , respectively. Total emissions calculated using annual incineration for MSW were 3587 ton CO 2 -eq yr -1 for A facility and 11,082 ton CO 2 -eq yr -1 for B facility, while those of IPCC default values were 13,167 ton CO 2- eq yr -1 for A facility and 32,916 ton CO 2- eq yr -1 , indicating that the emissions of IPCC default values were estimated higher than those of the plant-specific emission factors. The emission of CSW for C facility was 1403 ton CO 2 -eq yr -1 , while those of SW for D to I facilities was 28,830 ton CO 2 -eq yr -1 . The sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation for GHG emission factors in MSW showed that the GHG concentrations have a greater impact than the incineration amount and flow rate of flue gas. For MSW incineration plants using the same stoker type in operation, the estimated emissions and emission factors of CH 4 showed the opposite trend with those of NO 2 when the NO x removal system was used, whereas there was no difference in CO 2 emissions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015

PubMed Central

Shan, Yuli; Guan, Dabo; Zheng, Heran; Ou, Jiamin; Li, Yuan; Meng, Jing; Mi, Zhifu; Liu, Zhu; Zhang, Qiang

2018-01-01

China is the world’s top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of China’s CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies. The gap between the different emissions estimates is approximately equal to the total emissions of the Russian Federation (the 4th highest emitter globally) in 2011. In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China. PMID:29337312

China CO2 emission accounts 1997-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Yuli; Guan, Dabo; Zheng, Heran; Ou, Jiamin; Li, Yuan; Meng, Jing; Mi, Zhifu; Liu, Zhu; Zhang, Qiang

2018-01-01

China is the world's top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of China's CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies. The gap between the different emissions estimates is approximately equal to the total emissions of the Russian Federation (the 4th highest emitter globally) in 2011. In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually. The uniformly formatted emission inventories provide data support for further emission-related research as well as emissions reduction policy-making in China.

N2O release from agro-biofuel production negates global warming reduction by replacing fossil fuels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crutzen, P. J.; Mosier, A. R.; Smith, K. A.; Winiwarter, W.

2008-01-01

The relationship, on a global basis, between the amount of N fixed by chemical, biological or atmospheric processes entering the terrestrial biosphere, and the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O), has been re-examined, using known global atmospheric removal rates and concentration growth of N2O as a proxy for overall emissions. For both the pre-industrial period and in recent times, after taking into account the large-scale changes in synthetic N fertiliser production, we find an overall conversion factor of 3-5% from newly fixed N to N2O-N. We assume the same factor to be valid for biofuel production systems. It is covered only in part by the default conversion factor for "direct" emissions from agricultural crop lands (1%) estimated by IPCC (2006), and the default factors for the "indirect" emissions (following volatilization/deposition and leaching/runoff of N: 0.35-0.45%) cited therein. However, as we show in the paper, when additional emissions included in the IPCC methodology, e.g. those from livestock production, are included, the total may not be inconsistent with that given by our "top-down" method. When the extra N2O emission from biofuel production is calculated in "CO2-equivalent" global warming terms, and compared with the quasi-cooling effect of "saving" emissions of fossil fuel derived CO2, the outcome is that the production of commonly used biofuels, such as biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), depending on N fertilizer uptake efficiency by the plants, can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2O emissions than cooling by fossil fuel savings. Crops with less N demand, such as grasses and woody coppice species, have more favourable climate impacts. This analysis only considers the conversion of biomass to biofuel. It does not take into account the use of fossil fuel on the farms and for fertilizer and pesticide production, but it also neglects the production of useful co-products. Both factors partially compensate each other. This needs to be analyzed in a full life cycle assessment.

Estimation and projection of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from anthropogenic sources in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Wen-Tien; Chyan, Jih-Ming

2006-03-01

Taiwan is a densely populated and developed country with more than 97% of energy consumption supplied by imported fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions are thus becoming significant environmental issues in the country. Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended methodologies, anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) in Taiwan during 2000-2003 were estimated to be around 41 thousand metric tons annually. About 87% of N2O emissions come from agriculture, 7% from the energy sector, 3% from industrial processes sector, 3% from waste sector. On the basis of N2O emissions in 2000, projections for the year 2010 show that emissions were estimated to decline by about 6% mainly due to agricultural changes in response to the entry of WTO in 2002. In contrast to projections for the year 2020, N2O emissions were projected to grow by about 17%. This is based on the reasonable scenario that a new adipic acid/nitric acid plant will be probably started after 2010.

Is 2 Degrees Achievable? The Cold Turkey Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, S. E.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for collective international action to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2˚C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. How much would carbon dioxide emissions have to be reduced to achieve these objectives, or can these objectives even be achieved at all? These questions are examined using a global energy balance model to carry out a "cold turkey" experiment in which emissions from fossil fuel combustion are abruptly halted; this is a limiting case for any practically achievable gradual reduction in emissions. The model study halts emissions not just of CO2 but also of atmospheric aerosols and precursor gases. These aerosols are thought to be offsetting a substantial but highly uncertain fraction of the radiative forcing of anthropogenic CO2 by scattering solar radiation and by increasing cloud reflectivity. In contrast to CO2, which would persist in the atmosphere for decades to centuries, aerosols would be removed almost immediately after cessation of emissions. Consequently, at least in the early decades following abrupt cessation of emissions, net forcing and global temperature would likely increase, not decrease. The magnitude of the temperature increase that would ensue depends on Earth's climate sensitivity and current aerosol forcing. These quantities are quite uncertain but are strongly correlated through observational constraints. Within present uncertainty it cannot be stated with confidence whether the 2˚C target could be achieved even if emissions were abruptly halted. Future global CO2 emissions consistent with achieving the 2˚C target range from as much as 100 years at current emission rates if Earth's climate sensitivity is at the low end of the range estimated by the IPCC 2013 Assessment Report, to zero, the committed temperature increase already exceeding the 2˚C limit, if sensitivity is at the high end of the IPCC range. Figure. Global mean forcing and temperature response, for AR5 range of aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, following abrupt cessation of emissions of CO2 and aerosols and precursor gases from fossil fuel combustion. Solid curves denote time-dependent forcing and response; dashed curves, response for CO2 maintained at its present value; dotted lines, instantaneous response.

The difference of level CO2 emissions from the transportation sector between weekdays and weekend days on the City Centre of Pemalang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawitri, E.; Hardiman, G.; Buchori, I.

2017-06-01

The high growth of human activity potentially increases the number of vehicles and the use of fossil fuels that contribute the increase of CO2 emissions in atmosphere. Controlling CO2 emission that causes greenhouse effect becomes the main agenda of Indonesian Government. The first step control CO2 emissions is by measuring the level of CO2 emissions, especially CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector. This research aims to assess the level of CO2 emissions from transportation sector on the main roads in the city centre of Pemalang both in weekdays and weekend days. The methods applied to calculate CO2 emissions using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 method. For this, a survey on the number of vehicles passing through the main roads using hand tally counter is firstly done. The results, CO2 emissions in working day, i.e. 49,006.95 tons/year compared to weekend i.e. 38,865.50 tons/year.

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

EPA Science Inventory

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes ...

Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ver, L.M.B.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Lerman, A.

In the past three centuries, human perturbations of the environment have affected the biogeochemical behavior of the global carbon cycle and that of the other three nutrient elements closely coupled to carbon: nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. The partitioning of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} among its various sinks in the past, for the present, and for projections into the near future is controlled by the interactions of these four elemental cycles within the major environmental domains of the land, atmosphere, coastal oceanic zone, and open ocean. The authors analyze the past, present, and future behavior of the global carbon cycle using themore » Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model (TOTEM), a unique process-based model of the four global coupled biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. They find that during the past 300 yrs, anthropogenic CO{sub 2} was mainly stored in the atmosphere and in the open ocean. Human activities on land caused an enhanced loss of mass from the terrestrial organic matter reservoirs (phytomass and humus) mainly through deforestation and consequently increased humus remineralization, erosion, and transport to the coastal margins by rivers and runoff. Photosynthetic uptake by the terrestrial phytomass was enhanced owing to fertilization by increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations and supported by nutrients remineralized from organic matter. TOTEM results indicate that through most of the past 300 yrs, the loss of C from deforestation and other land-use activities was greater than the gain from the enhanced photosynthetic uptake. Since pre-industrial time (since 1700), the net flux of CO{sub 2} from the coastal waters has decreased by 40%, from 0.20 Gt C/yr to 0.12 Gt C/yr. TOTEM analyses of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations for the 21st century were based on the fossil-fuel emission projections of IPCC (business as usual scenario) and of the more restrictive UN 1997 Kyoto Protocol. By the mid-21st century, the projected atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations range from about 550 ppmv (TOTEM, based on IPCC projected emissions) to 510 ppmv (IPCC projection) and to 460 ppmv (TOTEM, based on the Kyoto Protocol reduced emissions).« less

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk

Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobicmore » condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.« less

The FAOSTAT Emissions database for AFOLU: Updates for 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tubiello, F.

2017-12-01

The FAO computes GHG emissions for agriculture and land use since 2012. Data are disseminate in FAOSTAT, with country detail and global coverage, based on IPCC 2006 Tier 1 and underlying FAOSTAT activity data, complemented by use of geospatial maps for specific land use/land cover dynamics. Methods for capacity development with countries based on teh FAOSTAT approach are discussed in the context of suporting the enhanced transprency framework of teh Paris agreement. New updates to 2015 are discussed, including findings on peat emissions and initial projections of land use emissions to 2030 for south east asia. It is found that, by considering the time dynamics of land use change in Indonesia relative to palm oil cultivation, result in a doubling of the earlier estimates of emissions from drained organic soils that had informed the IPCC AR5. The 2030 projections show that, within a scenario approach, teh bulk of AFOLU emissoins increase in south east asia is also linked primarily to palm oil dynamics, with a diminishing impact towards 2030 due to markeyt dynamics.

Cumulative carbon emissions budgets consistent with 1.5 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.

2018-04-01

The Paris Agreement1 commits ratifying parties to pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Carbon budgets2-5 consistent with remaining below 1.5 °C warming, reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)2,6,8, are directly based on Earth system model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)7 responses, which, on average, warm more than observations in response to historical CO2 emissions and other forcings8,9. These models indicate a median remaining budget of 55 PgC (ref. 10, base period: year 1870) left to emit from January 2016, the equivalent to approximately five years of emissions at the 2015 rate11,12. Here we calculate warming and carbon budgets relative to the decade 2006-2015, which eliminates model-observation differences in the climate-carbon response over the historical period9, and increases the median remaining carbon budget to 208 PgC (33-66% range of 130-255 PgC) from January 2016 (with mean warming of 0.89 °C for 2006-2015 relative to 1861-188013-18). There is little sensitivity to the observational data set used to infer warming that has occurred, and no significant dependence on the choice of emissions scenario. Thus, although limiting median projected global warming to below 1.5 °C is undoubtedly challenging19-21, our results indicate it is not impossible, as might be inferred from the IPCC AR5 carbon budgets2,8.

PERSPECTIVE: Keeping a closer eye on fossil fuel CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Peter F.

2009-12-01

Peter F Nelson The world is watching expectantly as the clock winds down towards the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15; http://en.cop15.dk/) to be held 7-18 December 2009 in Copenhagen. While most are now convinced of the need for a strong and concerted response to the climate challenge, the exact nature and extent of that response remains uncertain. There is evidence (Barnett 2009) that current estimates of emissions now exceed all but the most extreme emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If that increase in emissions persists then temperature increases of 4 °C by 2060 have been predicted (Barnett 2009). An inevitable result of the potential for such extreme climate change is to advance the need for multiple adaptation strategies to decision making about, for example, infrastructure, urban planning and forest management. These strategies need to do more than incremental adaptation (Barnett 2009); instead transformative approaches may be required to adapt. The timing of the response is also proving to be a critical determining factor in the effectiveness of global actions. Using a simple conceptual model of emissions, Vaughan and co-workers (Vaughan et al 2009) show that avoiding dangerous climate change is more effective if such action begins early. Early action is also more effective than acting more aggressively later (Vaughan et al 2009). Uncertainties, although reduced, are still significant in the science of climate change. The interactions between control of particulate air pollutants and climate change are particularly challenging (Arneth et al 2009, Shindell et al 2009) but many other uncertainties require continuing research. The scientific uncertainties are only one aspect of an intense interdisciplinary, political, economic and cultural dialogue. It is clear that political will, economic interest, target setting for emissions reductions, adaptation, technology and financing (Pan 2009) will all have a major influence on progress to an international agreement. It is important that the political challenges are not underestimated. Long-term observers of the negotiations necessary for global agreements (Inman 2009) are pessimistic about the chances for success at COP15, and argue that agreements between smaller groups of countries may be more effective. China and other developing countries clearly expect greater emission cuts by developed nations as a condition for a successful deal (Pan 2009). Conversely, the constraints on US climate policies are considerable, notably those imposed by fears that an international agreement that does not include equitable emission control measures for developing countries like China and India, will compromise the agreement and reduce its effectiveness (Skodvin and Andresen 2009). In this context the need for earlier, and more reliable, information on emissions is a high priority. Myhre and coworkers (Myhre et al 2009) provide an efficient method for calculating global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by combining industry statistics with data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC; http://cdiac.ornl.gov/). Recent analyses of carbon dioxide emission data show a worrying acceleration in emissions, beyond even the most extreme IPCC projections, but are based largely on the CDIAC which gives information about emissions released two to three years before real time (Canadell et al 2007, Raupach et al 2007). The approach used by Myhre et al (2009) uses BP annual statistics of fossil fuel consumption and has a much shorter lag, of the order of six months. Of significant concern is that their analysis of the data also reveals that the recent strong increase in fossil fuel CO2 is largely driven by an increase in emissions from coal, most significantly in China. By contrast, emissions from oil and gas continue to follow longer-term historical trends. Earlier and accurate data on CO2 emissions is important for a range of reasons. It allows comparison with the scenarios developed by the IPCC; uncertainties in emission scenarios are one of the major sources of uncertainties in temperature projections, particularly at longer time scales, where temperature projections are increasingly dependent on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007). There have also been recent suggestions (Le Quere et al 2007) of a weakening of the oceanic sink for CO2, and earlier information on emission pathways will be important for testing this hypothesis. Some observers (Levi 2009) believe that the best outcome from COP15 may be an agreement on measurement, reporting and verification. While this may seem like a modest ambition, progress in this area is essential to a successful climate change measure and to compliance with any international agreement. As Levi (2009) points out, `such verification will help make it more politically feasible to undertake similar emissions-cutting actions elsewhere, including in the United States'. The approach of Myhre et al is a very useful tool in such independent verification. References Arneth A, Unger N, Kulmala M and Andreae M O 2009 Clean the air, heat the planet? Science 326 672-3 Barnett A 2009 No easy way out Nature Reports Climate Change 3 128-9 Canadell J G, Le Quere C, Raupach M R, Field C B, Buitenhuis, E T, Ciais P, Conway T J, Gillett N P, Houghton R A and Marland G 2007 Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 18866-70 Inman M 2009 The climate change game Nature Reports Climate Change 3 130-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC) 104pp Le Quere C, Rodenbeck C, Buitenhuis E T, Conway T J, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett N and Heimann M 2007 Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Science 316 1735-8 Levi M A 2009 Copenhagen's inconvenient truth: how to salvage the climate conference Foreign Affairs 92-103 Myhre G, Alterskjaer K and Lowe D 2009 A fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 4 034012 Pan J 2009 China expects leadership from rich nations Nature 461 1055 Raupach M R, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell J G, Klepper G and Field C B 2007 Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 10288-93 Shindell D T, Faluvegi G, Koch D M, Schmidt G A, Unger N and Bauer S E 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science 326 716-8 Skodvin T and Andresen S 2009 An agenda for change in US climate policies? Presidential ambitions and congressional powers Int. Environ. Agreements: Politics Law Econ. 9 263-80 Vaughan N E, Lenton T M and Shepherd J G 2009 Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required Climatic Change 96 29-43

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2014-12-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions, and changes in land use. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 2 and 4 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, and South regions are mostly a result of enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Little change in PM2.5 in the Central, Northwest, and Southwest regions was found, even when PM precursors are reduced with regulatory curtailment. Changes in temperature, relative humidity, and boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall PM2.5 mass concentrations.

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines.

PubMed

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Jae Young

2015-02-01

According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH4 produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH4/CO2 ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3-1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0-2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH4+CO2% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R. S. J. (2009), "The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application to FUND", Environmental and Resource Economics, 43 (3), 351-367. Edenhofer, O., Bauer, N., and Kriegler, E. (2005), "The Impact of Technological Change on Climate Protection and Welfare: Insights from the Model MIND", Ecological Economics, 54, 277-292. Neubersch, D., Held, H., and Otto, A., (2014), "Operationalizing Climate Targets under Learning: An Application of Cost-Risk Analysis", Climatic Change, 126, 305-318. Nordhaus, W. D., and Sztorc, P., (2013), DICE2013R: Introduction and User's Manual Nordhaus, W. D. (2014), "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches", Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 1 (1/2, Spring/Summer, 2014), 273-312. IPCC (2016), Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Products, IPCC-XLIII/INF.7. UNFCCC (2015), Adoption of the Paris Agreement van Vuuren, D. P., Deetman, S., van Vliet, J., van den Berg, M. , van Ruijven, B.J., and Koelbl, B. (2013): "The Role of Negative CO2 Emissions for Reaching 2 °C - Insights from Integrated Assessment Modelling", Climatic Change, 118, 15-27.

Modelling site-specific N2O emission factors from Austrian agricultural soils for targeted mitigation measures (NitroAustria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amon, Barbara; Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Kasper, Martina; Foldal, Cecilie; Schiefer, Jasmin; Kitzler, Barbara; Schwarzl, Bettina; Zethner, Gerhard; Anderl, Michael; Sedy, Katrin; Gaugitsch, Helmut; Dersch, Georg; Baumgarten, Andreas; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

2016-04-01

Results from a previous project "FarmClim" highlight that the IPCC default emission factor is not able to reflect region specific N2O emissions from Austrian arable soils. The methodology is limited in identifying hot spots and hot moments of N2O emissions. When estimations are based on default emission factors no recommendations can be given on optimisation measures that would lead to a reduction of soil N2O emissions. The better the knowledge is about Nitrogen and Carbon budgets in Austrian agricultural managed soils the better the situation can be reflected in the Austrian GHG emission inventory calculations. Therefore national and regionally modelled emission factors should improve the evidence for national deviation from the IPCC default emission factors and reduce the uncertainties. The overall aim of NitroAustria is to identify the drivers for N2O emissions on a regional basis taking different soil types, climate, and agricultural management into account. We use the LandscapeDNDC model to update the N2O emission factors for N fertilizer and animal manure applied to soils. Key regions in Austria were selected and region specific N2O emissions calculated. The model runs at sub-daily time steps and uses data such as maximum and minimum air temperature, precipitation, radiation, and wind speed as meteorological drivers. Further input data are used to reflect agricultural management practices, e.g., planting/harvesting, tillage, fertilizer application, irrigation and information on soil and vegetation properties for site characterization and model initialization. While at site scale, arable management data (crop cultivation, rotations, timings etc.) is obtained by experimental data from field trials or observations, at regional scale such data need to be generated using region specific proxy data such as land use and management statistics, crop cultivations and yields, crop rotations, fertilizer sales, manure resulting from livestock units etc. The farming community can only profit from NitroAustria, if model developments and results are integrated into the national emission inventory. Trade-offs between different greenhouse gas emissions and other nitrogen losses have to be discussed. The derivation of suitable mitigation options by optimization of common and evaluation of potential management practices for current and future climatic conditions is crucial to minimize threats to the environment while ensuring the long-term productivity and sustainability of agro-ecosystems. From the results gained in NitroAustria we will be able to show potential environmental impacts and propose measures for a policy framework towards climate friendly farming.

Bias in IPCC Methodologies for Assessment of N2O emissions from Crop Residue

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen use efficiencies are difficult to measure and reported recoveries from fertilizer N by crops average =50%. Worldwide studies (20+) conducted with precise 15N techniques that trace the fate of N found that an average of 66% of the fertilizer was recovered in crops and soils. In other words,...

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Estimating methane emissions from landfills based on rainfall, ambient temperature, and waste composition: The CLEEN model.

PubMed

Karanjekar, Richa V; Bhatt, Arpita; Altouqui, Said; Jangikhatoonabad, Neda; Durai, Vennila; Sattler, Melanie L; Hossain, M D Sahadat; Chen, Victoria

2015-12-01

Accurately estimating landfill methane emissions is important for quantifying a landfill's greenhouse gas emissions and power generation potential. Current models, including LandGEM and IPCC, often greatly simplify treatment of factors like rainfall and ambient temperature, which can substantially impact gas production. The newly developed Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model aims to improve landfill methane generation estimates, but still require inputs that are fairly easy to obtain: waste composition, annual rainfall, and ambient temperature. To develop the model, methane generation was measured from 27 laboratory scale landfill reactors, with varying waste compositions (ranging from 0% to 100%); average rainfall rates of 2, 6, and 12 mm/day; and temperatures of 20, 30, and 37°C, according to a statistical experimental design. Refuse components considered were the major biodegradable wastes, food, paper, yard/wood, and textile, as well as inert inorganic waste. Based on the data collected, a multiple linear regression equation (R(2)=0.75) was developed to predict first-order methane generation rate constant values k as functions of waste composition, annual rainfall, and temperature. Because, laboratory methane generation rates exceed field rates, a second scale-up regression equation for k was developed using actual gas-recovery data from 11 landfills in high-income countries with conventional operation. The Capturing Landfill Emissions for Energy Needs (CLEEN) model was developed by incorporating both regression equations into the first-order decay based model for estimating methane generation rates from landfills. CLEEN model values were compared to actual field data from 6 US landfills, and to estimates from LandGEM and IPCC. For 4 of the 6 cases, CLEEN model estimates were the closest to actual. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of methane conversion factor models for Zebu beef cattle fed low-quality crop residues and by-products in tropical regions.

PubMed

Kaewpila, Chatchai; Sommart, Kritapon

2016-10-01

The enteric methane conversion factor ( Y m ) is an important country-specific value for the provision of precise enteric methane emissions inventory reports. The objectives of this meta-analysis were to develop and evaluate the empirical Y m models for the national level and the farm level for tropical developing countries according to the IPCC's categorization. We used datasets derived from 18 in vivo feeding experiments from 1999 to 2015 of Zebu beef cattle breeds fed low-quality crop residues and by-products. We found that the observed Y m value was 8.2% gross energy (GE) intake (~120 g methane emission head -1  day -1 ) and ranged from 4.8% to 13.7% GE intake. The IPCC default model (tier 2, Y m  = 6.5% ± 1.0% GE intake) underestimated the Y m values by up to 26.1% compared with its refinement of 8.4% ± 0.4% GE intake for the national-level estimate. Both the IPCC default model and the refined model performed worse in predicting Y m trends at the farm level (root mean square prediction error [MSPE] = 15.1%-23.1%, concordance correlation coefficient [CCC] = 0.16-0.18, R 2  = .32). Seven of the extant Y m models based on a linear regression approach also showed inaccurately estimated Y m values (root MSPE = 16.2%-36.0%, CCC = 0.02-0.27, R 2  < .37). However, one of the developed models, which related to the complexity of the energy use efficiencies of the diet consumed to Y m , showed adequate accuracy at the farm level (root MSPE = 9.1%, CCC = 0.75, R 2  = .67). Our results thus suggest a new Y m model and future challenges for estimating Zebu beef cattle production in tropical developing countries.

Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kharaka, Yousif K.; Cole, David R.; Thordsen, James J.; Gans, Kathleen D.; Thomas, Randal B.

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for land...

A New IPCC Tier 4 Site-Specific Model for Landfill Methane Emissions Inclusive of Seasonal Methane Oxidation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This project was initiated in the U.S. by the California Energy Commission (CEC) in cooperation with the California Integrated Waste Management Board and the California Air Resources Board to develop improved methods for landfill methane emissions for the California greenhouse gas inventory. This 3-...

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

Projections of atmospheric mercury levels and their effect on air quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Liang, X.-Z.; Tao, Z.; Olsen, S.; Artz, R.; Ren, X.; Cohen, M.

2013-08-01

The individual and combined effects of global climate change and emissions changes from 2000 to 2050 on atmospheric mercury levels in the US are investigated by using the global climate-chemistry model, CAM-chem, coupled with a mercury chemistry-physics mechanism (CAM-Chem/Hg). Three future pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) are considered, with the A1FI, A1B and B1 scenarios representing the upper, middle and lower bounds of potential climate warming, respectively. The anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of mercury are projected from the energy use assumptions in the IPCC SRES report. Natural emissions from both land and ocean sources are projected using dynamic schemes. The zonal mean surface total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations in the tropics and mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere are projected to increase by 0.5-1.2 ng m-3 in 2050. TGM concentration increases are greater in the low latitudes than they are in the high latitudes, indicative of a larger meridional gradient than in the present day. In the A1FI scenario, TGM concentrations in 2050 are projected to increase by 2.1-4.0 ng m-3 for the eastern US and 1.4-3.0 ng m-3 for the western US. This pattern corresponds to potential increases in wet deposition of 10-14 μg m-2 for the eastern US and 2-4 μg m-2 for the western US. The increase in Hg(II) emissions tends to enhance wet deposition and hence increase the risk of higher mercury entering the hydrological cycle and ecosystems. In the B1 scenario, mercury concentrations in 2050 are similar to present level concentrations; this indicates that the domestic reduction in mercury emissions is essentially counteracted by the effects of climate warming and emissions increases in other regions. The sensitivity analyses presented show that anthropogenic emissions changes contribute 32-53% of projected mercury air concentration changes, while the independent contribution by climate change accounts for 47-68%. In summary, global climate change could have a comparable effect on mercury pollution in the US to that caused by global emissions changes.

Biodiesel production in a semiarid environment: a life cycle assessment approach.

PubMed

Biswas, Wahidul K; Barton, Louise; Carter, Daniel

2011-04-01

While the use of biodiesel appears to be a promising alternative to petroleum fuel, the replacement of fossil fuel by biofuel may not bring about the intended climate cooling because of the increased soil N2O emissions due to N-fertilizer applications. Using a life cycle assessment approach, we assessed the influence of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions on the life cycle global warming potential of the production and combustion of biodiesel from canola oil produced in a semiarid climate. Utilizing locally measured soil N2O emissions, rather than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default values, decreased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the production and combustion of 1 GJ biodiesel from 63 to 37 carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-e)/GJ. GHG were 1.1 to 2.1 times lower than those from petroleum or petroleum-based diesel depending on which soil N2O emission factors were included in the analysis. The advantages of utilizing biodiesel rapidly declined when blended with petroleum diesel. Mitigation strategies that decrease emissions from the production and application of N fertilizers may further decrease the life cycle GHG emissions in the production and combustion of biodiesel.

Verification of Agricultural Methane Emission Inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desjardins, R. L.; Pattey, E.; Worth, D. E.; VanderZaag, A.; Mauder, M.; Srinivasan, R.; Worthy, D.; Sweeney, C.; Metzger, S.

2017-12-01

It is estimated that agriculture contributes more than 40% of anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions in North America. However, these estimates, which are either based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology or inverse modeling techniques, are poorly validated due to the challenges of separating interspersed CH4 sources within agroecosystems. A flux aircraft, instrumented with a fast-response Picarro CH4 analyzer for the eddy covariance (EC) technique and a sampling system for the relaxed eddy accumulation technique (REA), was flown at an altitude of about 150 m along several 20-km transects over an agricultural region in Eastern Canada. For all flight days, the top-down CH4 flux density measurements were compared to the footprint adjusted bottom-up estimates based on an IPCC Tier II methodology. Information on the animal population, land use type and atmospheric and surface variables were available for each transect. Top-down and bottom-up estimates of CH4 emissions were found to be poorly correlated, and wetlands were the most frequent confounding source of CH4; however, there were other sources such as waste treatment plants and biodigesters. Spatially resolved wavelet covariance estimates of CH4 emissions helped identify the contribution of wetlands to the overall CH4 flux, and the dependence of these emissions on temperature. When wetland contribution in the flux footprint was minimized, top-down and bottom-up estimates agreed to within measurement error. This research demonstrates that although existing aircraft-based technology can be used to verify regional ( 100 km2) agricultural CH4 emissions, it remains challenging due to diverse sources of CH4 present in many regions. The use of wavelet covariance to generate spatially-resolved flux estimates was found to be the best way to separate interspersed sources of CH4.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate.

PubMed

Carmichael, Gregory R; Streets, David G; Calori, Giuseppe; Amann, Markus; Jacobson, Mark Z; Hansen, James; Ueda, Hiromasa

2002-11-15

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.

Building Energy-Efficiency Best Practice Policies and Policy Packages

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Mark; de la Rue de Can, Stephane; Zheng, Nina

2012-10-26

This report addresses the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions and the greatest opportunity to reduce these emissions. The IPCC 4 th Assessment Report estimates that globally 35% to 40% of all energy-related CO2 emissions (relative to a growing baseline) result from energy use in buildings. Emissions reductions from a combination of energy efficiency and conservation (using less energy) in buildings have the potential to cut emissions as much as all other energy-using sectors combined. This is especially the case for China, India and other developing countries that are expected to account for 80% or more of growth inmore » building energy use worldwide over the coming decades. In short, buildings constitute the largest opportunity to mitigate climate change and special attention needs to be devoted to developing countries.« less

Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Eric A.

2012-06-01

The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N2O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N2O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Methodology of Estimation of Methane Emissions from Coal Mines in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patyńska, Renata

2014-03-01

Based on a literature review concerning methane emissions in Poland, it was stated in 2009 that the National Greenhouse Inventory 2007 [13] was published. It was prepared firstly to meet Poland's obligations resulting from point 3.1 Decision no. 280/2004/WE of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004, concerning a mechanism for monitoring community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol and secondly, for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol. The National Greenhouse Inventory states that there are no detailed data concerning methane emissions in collieries in the Polish mining industry. That is why the methane emission in the methane coal mines of Górnośląskie Zagłębie Węglowe - GZW (Upper Silesian Coal Basin - USCB) in Poland was meticulously studied and evaluated. The applied methodology for estimating methane emission from the GZW coal mining system was used for the four basic sources of its emission. Methane emission during the mining and post-mining process. Such an approach resulted from the IPCC guidelines of 2006 [10]. Updating the proposed methods (IPCC2006) of estimating the methane emissions of hard coal mines (active and abandoned ones) in Poland, assumes that the methane emission factor (EF) is calculated based on methane coal mine output and actual values of absolute methane content. The result of verifying the method of estimating methane emission during the mining process for Polish coal mines is the equation of methane emission factor EF.

The research on the fairness of carbon emissions for China's energy based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiuxian; Gao, Zhiqiang; Ning, Jicai; Lu, Qingshui; Shi, Runhe; Gao, Wei

2013-09-01

This article firstly calculated China's energy carbon emissions of 30 provinces in 2010 with the method of carbon emission inventories of 2006 IPCC based on the data of China energy statistical yearbook, and then calculated its carbon emission intensity with GDP data in China's statistical yearbook. Next according to the formed formula the author calculated the EEI (Economic Efficiency Index) and ECI (Ecological Carrying Index) and made some corresponding figures with the help of GIS to analyze the fairness of the China's energy CO2 emissions in 2010.The results showed that the distribution of China's CO2 emissions for energy in 2010 become lower from the Bohai bay to the surroundings and the west circle provinces are with the lowest energy carbon emissions. The intensity distribution of China's CO2 emissions for energy in 2010 becomes higher from southeast China to north China. The distributions of EEI, ECI and for China's energy CO2 emissions are quite different from each other, and also with their comprehensive result. As to the fairness of China's energy CO2 emissions in 2010, we can say that the south provinces are better than those of Bohai bay areas (except Beijing and Tianjing).

Derivation of greenhouse gas emission factors for peatlands managed for extraction in the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, D.; Dixon, S. D.; Artz, R. R. E.; Smith, T. E. L.; Evans, C. D.; Owen, H. J. F.; Archer, E.; Renou-Wilson, F.

2015-09-01

Drained peatlands are significant hotspots of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and may also be more vulnerable to fire with its associated gaseous emissions. Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from peatlands managed for extraction are reported on an annual basis. However, the Tier 1 (default) emission factors (EFs) provided in the IPCC 2013 Wetlands Supplement for this land use category may not be representative in all cases and countries are encouraged to move to higher-tier reporting levels with reduced uncertainty levels based on country- or regional-specific data. In this study, we quantified (1) CO2-C emissions from nine peat extraction sites in the Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom, which were initially disaggregated by land use type (industrial versus domestic peat extraction), and (2) a range of GHGs that are released to the atmosphere with the burning of peat. Drainage-related methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions as well as CO2-C emissions associated with the off-site decomposition of horticultural peat were not included here. Our results show that net CO2-C emissions were strongly controlled by soil temperature at the industrial sites (bare peat) and by soil temperature and leaf area index at the vegetated domestic sites. Our derived EFs of 1.70 (±0.47) and 1.64 (±0.44) t CO2-C ha-1 yr-1 for the industrial and domestic sites respectively are considerably lower than the Tier 1 EF (2.8 ± 1.7 t CO2-C ha-1 yr-1) provided in the Wetlands Supplement. We propose that the difference between our derived values and the Wetlands Supplement value is due to differences in peat quality and, consequently, decomposition rates. Emissions from burning of the peat (g kg-1 dry fuel burned) were estimated to be approximately 1346 CO2, 8.35 methane (CH4), 218 carbon monoxide (CO), 1.53 ethane (C2H6), 1.74 ethylene (C2H4), 0.60 methanol (CH3OH), 2.21 hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and 0.73 ammonia (NH3), and this emphasises the importance of understanding the full suite of trace gas emissions from biomass burning. Our results highlight the importance of generating reliable Tier 2 values for different regions and land use categories. Furthermore, given that the IPCC Tier 1 EF was only based on 20 sites (all from Canada and Fennoscandia), we suggest that data from another 9 sites significantly expand the global data set, as well as adding a new region.

Greenhouse gas emissions in the state of Morelos, Mexico: a first approximation for establishing mitigation strategies.

PubMed

Quiroz-Castañeda, Rosa Estela; Sánchez-Salinas, Enrique; Castrejón-Godínez, María Luisa; Ortiz-Hernández, Ma Laura

2013-11-01

In this study, the authors report the first greenhouse gas emission inventory of Morelos, a state in central Mexico, in which the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have been identified using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were estimated as CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) for the years 2005, 2007, and 2009, with 2005 being treated as the base year. The percentage contributions from each category to the CO2 eq emissions in the base year were as follows: 38% from energy, 30% from industrial processes, 23% from waste, 5% from agriculture, and 4% from land use/land use change and forestry (LULUCF). As observed in other state inventories in Mexico, road transportation is the main source of CO2 emissions, wastewater handling and solid waste disposal are the main sources of CH4 emissions, and agricultural soils are the source of the most significant N2O emissions. The information reported in this inventory identifies the main emission sources. Based on these results, the government can propose public policies specifically designed for the state of Morelos to establish GHG mitigation strategies in the near future.

Soil nitrous oxide emissions after deposition of dairy cow excreta in eastern Canada.

PubMed

Rochette, Philippe; Chantigny, Martin H; Ziadi, Noura; Angers, Denis A; Bélanger, Gilles; Charbonneau, Édith; Pellerin, Doris; Liang, Chang; Bertrand, Normand

2014-05-01

Urine and dung deposited by grazing dairy cows are a major source of nitrous oxide (NO), a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to stratospheric ozone depletion. In this study, we quantified the emissions of NO after deposition of dairy cow excreta onto two grassland sites with contrasting soil types in eastern Canada. Our objectives were to determine the impact of excreta type, urine-N rate, time of the year, and soil type on annual NO emissions. Emissions were monitored on sandy loam and clay soils after spring, summer, and fall urine (5 and 10 g N patch) and dung (1.75 kg fresh weight dung) applications to perennial grasses in two successive years. The mean NO emission factor (EF) for urine was 1.09% of applied N in the clay soil and 0.31% in the sandy loam soil, estimates much smaller than the default Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default value for total excreta N (2%). Despite variations in urine composition and in climatic conditions, these soil-specific EFs were similar for the two urine-N application rates. The time of the year when urine was applied had no impact on emissions from the sandy loam soil, but greater EFs were observed after summer (1.59%) than spring (1.14%) and fall (0.55%) applications in the clay soil. Dung deposition impact on NO emission was smaller than that of urine, with a mean EF of 0.15% in the sandy loam soil and 0.08% in the clay soil. Our results suggest (i) that the IPCC default EF overestimates NO emissions from grazing cattle excreta in eastern Canada by a factor of 4.3 and (ii) that a region-specific inventory methodology should account for soil type and should use specific EFs for urine and dung. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

PubMed

Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

2013-09-01

Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatially explicit estimates of N2 O emissions from croplands suggest climate mitigation opportunities from improved fertilizer management.

PubMed

Gerber, James S; Carlson, Kimberly M; Makowski, David; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, Iñaki; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Launay, Marie; O'Connell, Christine S; Smith, Pete; West, Paul C

2016-10-01

With increasing nitrogen (N) application to croplands required to support growing food demand, mitigating N2 O emissions from agricultural soils is a global challenge. National greenhouse gas emissions accounting typically estimates N2 O emissions at the country scale by aggregating all crops, under the assumption that N2 O emissions are linearly related to N application. However, field studies and meta-analyses indicate a nonlinear relationship, in which N2 O emissions are relatively greater at higher N application rates. Here, we apply a super-linear emissions response model to crop-specific, spatially explicit synthetic N fertilizer and manure N inputs to provide subnational accounting of global N2 O emissions from croplands. We estimate 0.66 Tg of N2 O-N direct global emissions circa 2000, with 50% of emissions concentrated in 13% of harvested area. Compared to estimates from the IPCC Tier 1 linear model, our updated N2 O emissions range from 20% to 40% lower throughout sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe, to >120% greater in some Western European countries. At low N application rates, the weak nonlinear response of N2 O emissions suggests that relatively large increases in N fertilizer application would generate relatively small increases in N2 O emissions. As aggregated fertilizer data generate underestimation bias in nonlinear models, high-resolution N application data are critical to support accurate N2 O emissions estimates. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

PubMed

Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

2011-10-01

Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

Atmospheric emissivity with clear sky computed by E-Trans/HITRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Víctor M.; Villanueva, Elba E.; Garduño, René; Sánchez-Meneses, Oscar

2017-04-01

The vertical profiles of temperature and pressure from the International Standard Atmosphere, together with the mixing ratio profiles of the main greenhouse effect gases (GG), namely water vapour, CO2 , CH4 , N2 O and stratospheric O3 , are used to determine the downward emissivity of long wave radiation by cloudless atmosphere, by means of the spectral calculator E-Trans with the HITRAN (high-resolution transmission) database. We make a review of emissivity parameterizations, reported by several authors, in terms of the surface vapour pressure and surface air temperature. We compute vertically weighted averages of temperature and pressure, also parameterize the CH4 , N2 O and O3 mixing ratio profiles, in order to adapt these variables as required by the E-Trans/HITRAN. Our results of emissivity for the corresponding vapour pressures agree well with those obtained by the reviewed authors. With this method, the emissivity can be computed at a regional scale and towards the future global warming, according to the IPCC temperature projections that will also increase the atmospheric humidity, from the emission scenarios of GG.

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

The Effect of Emissions Trading And Carbon Sequestration on The Cost Of CO2 Emissions Mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahasenan, Natesan; Scott, Michael J.; Smith, Steven J.

2002-08-05

The deployment of carbon capture and sequestration (CC&S) technologies is greatly affected by the marginal cost of controlling carbon emissions (also the value of carbon, when emissions permits are traded). Emissions limits that are more stringent in the near term imply higher near-term carbon values and therefore encourage the local development and deployment of CC&S technologies. In addition, trade in emissions obligations lowers the cost of meeting any regional or global emissions limit and so affects the rate of penetration of CC&S technologies. We examine the effects of the availability of sequestration opportunities and emissions trading (either within select regionsmore » or globally) on the cost of emissions mitigation and compliance with different emissions reduction targets for the IPCC SRES scenarios. For each base scenario and emissions target, we examine the issues outlined above and present quantitative estimates for the impacts of trade and the availability of sequestration opportunities in meeting emissions limitation obligations.« less

Indirect effect of changing aerosol concentrations on methane and ozone radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowlinson, Matthew; Rap, Alexandru; Arnold, Steve; Forster, Piers; Chipperfield, Martyn

2017-04-01

Atmospheric aerosols interact with climate in number of complex ways and quantifying the overall effect remains the dominant uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate forcing (IPCC, 2013). The radiative forcing (RF) caused by the direct effect of aerosol interacting with radiation is estimated at -0.35 (-0.85 to +0.15) Wm-2, while cloud-aerosol interactions are estimated at -0.45 (-1.2 to 0.0) Wm-2 (IPCC, 2013). The net impact is a cooling with an effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.9 (-1.9 to -0.1) Wm-2 (IPCC, 2013). One effect of aerosols which has not been well evaluated is their effect on atmospheric chemistry. Atmospheric aerosols provide a surface for homogeneous reactions to occur, altering reactions rates and the availability of oxidants, thereby influencing the removal/production of radiatively important species such as methane (CH4) and tropospheric ozone (O3). Oxidants such as the hydroxyl radical (OH) determine the atmospheric lifetime and hence burden of CH4, therefore changes to atmospheric aerosols which impact oxidation chemistry will also influence RF due to CH4. This effect could enhance or offset the negative RF of aerosols, depending on how the individual aerosol changes availability of oxidants. Quantifying the importance of this mechanism for RF is necessary to provide accurate estimates of the effect of aerosols, and assess relative effectiveness of measures to decrease aerosol emissions and precursors. Using a sophisticated aerosol micro-physics model (GLOMAP) coupled to the TOMCAT three-dimensional chemical transport model, we separately simulate changes in atmospheric composition resulting from a 50% decline in anthropogenic emissions of black carbon aerosol (BC), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and anthropogenic precursors of sulphate and nitrate. The impact of changes to each aerosol on lifetime of CH4 is then calculated to establish the resulting impact on CH4 burden and RF. Cutting global anthropogenic SO2 emissions by 50% decreases atmospheric sulpate concentrations by 44% after 2 years, while increasing global OH concentrations by 0.9%. CH4 lifetime is reduced by approximately 50 days as a result, leading to a decrease in CH4 burden of 38ppb. NOx is anticipated to have a similar but much larger effect (Matsui and Koike 2016). The Edwards and Slingo offline radiation model is also used to calculate changes to direct and indirect aerosol forcing. Presented here is the net RF change following 50% emission decrease of each aerosol or precursors, accounting for the direct and indirect aerosol effect as well as indirect effects via oxidation chemistry on the RF due to CH4 and tropospheric O3.

Triple Oxygen Isotope Measurement of Nitrate to Analyze Impact of Aircraft Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Sharleen

With 4.9% of total anthropogenic radiative forcing attributed to aircraft emissions, jet engines combust copious amounts of fuel producing gases including: NOx (NO + NO2), SOx, VOC's and fine particles [IPCC (1999), IPCC (2007), Lee et al., 2009]. The tropospheric non-linear relationships between NOx, OH and O3 contribute uncertainties in the ozone budget amplified by poor understanding of the NOx cycle. In a polluted urban environment, interaction of gases and particles produce various new compounds that are difficult to measure with analytical tools available today [Thiemens, 2006]. Using oxygen triple isotopic measurement of NO3 to investigate gas to particle formation and chemical transformation in the ambient atmosphere, this study presents data obtained from aerosols sampled at NASA's Dryden Aircraft Operations Facility (DAOF) in Palmdale, CA during January and February, 2009 and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) during Fall 2009, Winter 2010, and Spring 2010. The aerosols collected from jet aircraft exhaust in Palmdale exhibit an oxygen isotope anomaly (Delta17O =delta 17O -0.52 delta18O) increase with photochemical age of particles (-0.22 to 26.41‰) while NO3 concentration decreases from 53.76 - 5.35ppm with a radial distance from the jet dependency. Bulk aerosol samples from LAX exhibit seasonal variation with Delta17 O and NO3 concentration peaking in winter suggesting multiple sources and increased fossil fuel burning. Using oxygen triple isotopes of NO3, we are able to distinguish primary and secondary nitrate by aircraft emissions allowing new insight into a portion of the global nitrogen cycle. This represents a new and potentially important means to uniquely identify aircraft emissions on the basis of the unique isotopic composition of jet aircraft emissions.

Determining residential energy consumption-based CO2 emissions and examining the factors affecting the variation in Ankara, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kus, Melike; Akan, Perihan; Aydinalp Koksal, Merih; Gullu, Gulen

2017-11-01

Energy demand of Turkey has been showing a remarkable increase in the last two decades due to rapid increase in population and changes in consumption trends. In parallel to the increase in energy demand, the CO2 emissions in Turkey are also increasing dramatically due to high usage of fossil fuels. CO2 emissions from the residential sector covers almost one fourth of the total sectoral emissions. In this study, CO2 emissions from the residential sector are estimated, and the factors affecting the emission levels are determined for the residential sector in Ankara, Turkey. In this study, detailed surveys are conducted to more than 400 households in Ankara. Using the information gathered from the surveys, the CO2 emissions associated with energy consumption of the households are calculated using the methodology outlined at IPCC. The statistical analyses are carried out using household income, dwelling characteristics, and household economic and demographic data to determine the factors causing the variation in emission levels among the households. The results of the study present that the main factors impacting the amount of total energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions are household income, dwelling construction year, age, education level of the household, and net footage of the dwelling.

Carbon Capture and Sequestration- A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sood, Akash; Vyas, Savita

2017-08-01

The Drastic increase of CO2 emission in the last 30 years is due to the combustion of fossil fuels and it causes a major change in the environment such as global warming. In India, the emission of fossil fuels is developed in the recent years. The alternate energy sources are not sufficient to meet the values of this emission reduction and the framework of climate change demands the emission reduction, the CCS technology can be used as a mitigation tool which evaluates the feasibility for implementation of this technology in India. CCS is a process to capture the carbon dioxide from large sources like fossil fuel station to avoid the entrance of CO2 in the atmosphere. IPCC accredited this technology and its path for mitigation for the developing countries. In this paper, we present the technologies of CCS with its development and external factors. The main goal of this process is to avoid the release the CO2 into the atmosphere and also investigates the sequestration and mitigation technologies of carbon.

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock.

PubMed

Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R; West, Tristram O

2017-09-29

Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculate new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine. Using the new emissions factors, we estimate global livestock emissions of 119.1 ± 18.2 Tg methane in 2011; this quantity is 11% greater than that obtained using the IPCC 2006 emissions factors, encompassing an 8.4% increase in enteric fermentation methane, a 36.7% increase in manure management methane, and notable variability among regions and sources. For example, revised manure management methane emissions for 2011 in the US increased by 71.8%. For years through 2013, we present (a) annual livestock methane emissions, (b) complete annual livestock carbon budgets, including carbon dioxide emissions, and (c) spatial distributions of livestock methane and other carbon fluxes, downscaled to 0.05 × 0.05 degree resolution. Our revised bottom-up estimates of global livestock methane emissions are comparable to recently reported top-down global estimates for recent years, and account for a significant part of the increase in annual methane emissions since 2007. Our results suggest that livestock methane emissions, while not the dominant overall source of global methane emissions, may be a major contributor to the observed annual emissions increases over the 2000s to 2010s. Differences at regional and local scales may help distinguish livestock methane emissions from those of other sectors in future top-down studies. The revised estimates allow improved reconciliation of top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane emissions, will facilitate the development and evaluation of Earth system models, and provide consistent regional and global Tier 1 estimates for environmental assessments.

Evaluation and application of site-specific data to revise the first-order decay model for estimating landfill gas generation and emissions at Danish landfills.

PubMed

Mou, Zishen; Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter

2015-06-01

Methane (CH₄) generated from low-organic waste degradation at four Danish landfills was estimated by three first-order decay (FOD) landfill gas (LFG) generation models (LandGEM, IPCC, and Afvalzorg). Actual waste data from Danish landfills were applied to fit model (IPCC and Afvalzorg) required categories. In general, the single-phase model, LandGEM, significantly overestimated CH₄generation, because it applied too high default values for key parameters to handle low-organic waste scenarios. The key parameters were biochemical CH₄potential (BMP) and CH₄generation rate constant (k-value). In comparison to the IPCC model, the Afvalzorg model was more suitable for estimating CH₄generation at Danish landfills, because it defined more proper waste categories rather than traditional municipal solid waste (MSW) fractions. Moreover, the Afvalzorg model could better show the influence of not only the total disposed waste amount, but also various waste categories. By using laboratory-determined BMPs and k-values for shredder, sludge, mixed bulky waste, and street-cleaning waste, the Afvalzorg model was revised. The revised model estimated smaller cumulative CH₄generation results at the four Danish landfills (from the start of disposal until 2020 and until 2100). Through a CH₄mass balance approach, fugitive CH₄emissions from whole sites and a specific cell for shredder waste were aggregated based on the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes. Aggregated results were in good agreement with field measurements, indicating that the revised Afvalzorg model could provide practical and accurate estimation for Danish LFG emissions. This study is valuable for both researchers and engineers aiming to predict, control, and mitigate fugitive CH₄emissions from landfills receiving low-organic waste. Landfill operators use the first-order decay (FOD) models to estimate methane (CH₄) generation. A single-phase model (LandGEM) and a traditional model (IPCC) could result in overestimation when handling a low-organic waste scenario. Site-specific data were important and capable of calibrating key parameter values in FOD models. The comparison study of the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes and field measurements at four Danish landfills provided a guideline for revising the Pollutants Release and Transfer Registers (PRTR) model, as well as indicating noteworthy waste fractions that could emit CH₄at modern landfills.

Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

2017-09-01

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

Aerosol direct, indirect, semidirect, and surface albedo effects from sector contributions based on the IPCC AR5 emissions for preindustrial and present-day conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m2, with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m2). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m2) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m2) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m2), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

[Estimating spatiotemporal dynamics of methane emissions from livestock in China].

PubMed

Lin, Yu; Zhang, Wen; Huang, Yao

2011-08-01

Combining Tier 2 method presented in the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2006) with GIS techniques, a primary estimation of methane emission from livestock in 2004 (including emission from enteric fermentation and manure management system) was made with county-level livestock statistics and 1 km x 1 km raster data. The results indicated that the methane emission from livestock was 12.79 x 10(6) tons totally in China, and 11.64 x 10(6) tons from enteric fermentation and 1.16 x 10(6) tons from manure management. The uncertainties of the methane emission from enteric fermentation and manure management were +/- 35.10% and +/- 14. 58% respectively. The high methane emission was at Yellow River basin, especially in the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the North China Plain. The Southwestern China also can be found with high emission. In accordance with the seasonal temperature changes, the temporal variation of manure management emission was estimated the highest in summer and the lowest in winter.

Sensitivity of U.S. surface ozone to future emissions and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Huang, Ho-Chun; Caughey, Michael; Liang, Xin-Zhong

2007-04-01

The relative contributions of projected future emissions and climate changes to U.S. surface ozone concentrations are investigated focusing on California, the Midwest, the Northeast, and Texas. By 2050 regional average ozone concentrations increase by 2-15% under the IPCC SRES A1Fi (``dirty'') scenario, and decrease by 4-12% under the B1 (relatively ``clean'') scenario. However, the magnitudes of ozone changes differ significantly between major metropolitan and rural areas. These ozone changes are dominated by the emissions changes in 61% area of the contiguous U.S. under the B1 scenario, but are largely determined by the projected climate changes in 46% area under the A1Fi scenario. In the ozone responses to climate changes, the biogenic emissions changes contribute strongly over the Northeast, moderately in the Midwest, and negligibly in other regions.

Residual Effects of Fertilization History Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Zero-N Controls: Implications for Estimating Fertilizer-Induced Emission Factors.

PubMed

LaHue, Gabriel T; van Kessel, Chris; Linquist, Bruce A; Adviento-Borbe, Maria Arlene; Fonte, Steven J

2016-09-01

Agricultural N fertilization is the dominant driver of increasing atmospheric nitrous oxide (NO) concentrations over the past half-century, yet there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of NO emissions from agriculture. Such estimates are typically based on the amount of N applied and a fertilizer-induced emission factor (EF), which is calculated as the difference in emissions between a fertilized plot and a zero-N control plot divided by the amount of N applied. A fertilizer-induced EF of 1% is currently recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based on several studies analyzing published field measurements of NO emissions. Although many zero-N control plots used in these measurements received historical N applications, the potential for a residual impact of these inputs on NO emissions has been largely ignored and remains poorly understood. To address this issue, we compared NO emissions under laboratory conditions from soils sampled within zero-N control plots that had historically received N inputs versus soils from plots that had no N inputs for 20 yr. Historical N fertilization of zero-N control plots increased initial NO emissions by roughly one order of magnitude on average relative to historically unfertilized control plots. Higher NO emissions were positively correlated with extractable N and potentially mineralizable N. This finding suggests that accounting for fertilization history may help reduce the uncertainty associated with the IPCC fertilizer-induced EF and more accurately estimate the contribution of fertilizer N to agricultural NO emissions, although further research to demonstrate this relationship in the field is needed. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Greenhouse gas emission from the total process of swine manure composting and land application of compost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Jia; Wei, Yuansong; Wan, Hefeng; Wu, Yulong; Zheng, Jiaxi; Han, Shenghui; Zheng, Bofu

2013-12-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from animal manure management are of great concern in China. However, there are still great uncertainties about China's GHG inventory due to the GHG emission factors partly used default values from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. The purpose of this study was to use a case study in Beijing to determine the regional GHG emission factors based on the combination of swine manure composting and land application of the compost with both on-site examination and a life cycle assessment (LCA). The results showed that the total GHG emission factor was 240 kgCO2eq tDS-1 (dry solids), including the direct GHG emission factor of 115 kgCO2eq tDS-1 for swine manure composting and 48 kgCO2eq tDS-1 for land application of the compost. Among the total GHG emissions of 5.06 kgCH4 tDS-1 and 0.13 kgN2O tDS-1, the swine manure composting contributed approximately 89% to CH4 emissions while land application accounted for 92% of N2O emission. Meanwhile, the GHG emission profile from the full process in Beijing in 2015 and 2020 was predicted by the scenario analysis. The composting and land application is a cost-effective way for animal manure management in China considering GHG emissions.

Hourly disaggregation of industrial CO2 emissions from Shenzhen, China.

PubMed

Ma, Li; Cai, Bofeng; Wu, Feng; Zeng, Hui

2018-05-01

Shenzhen's total industrial CO 2 emission was calculated using the IPCC recommended bottom-up approach and data obtained from the China High Resolution Emission Gridded Data (CHRED). Monthly product yield was then used as the proxy to disaggregate a facility's total emission into monthly emissions. Since a thermal power unit's emission changes with daily and hourly power loads, typical power load curves were used as the proxy to disaggregate the monthly emissions on a daily and hourly basis. The daily and hourly emissions of other facilities were calculated according to two specially designed models: the "weekdays + Spring Festival holidays" model for February and the "weekdays + weekends" model for non-February months. The uncertainty ranges associated with the process of the total amount calculation, monthly disaggregation, daily disaggregation and hourly disaggregation were quantitatively estimated. The total combined uncertainty of the hourly disaggregation of "weekdays + weekends" mode was ±26.19%, and that of the "weekdays + Spring Festival holidays" mode was ±33.06%. These temporal-disaggregation methods and uncertainty estimate approaches could also be used for the industrial air pollutant emission inventory and easily reproduced in the whole country. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multisite experimental cost study of intensive psychiatric community care.

PubMed

Rosenheck, R; Neale, M; Leaf, P; Milstein, R; Frisman, L

1995-01-01

A 2-year experimental cost study of 10 Intensive Psychiatric Community Care (IPCC) programs was conducted at Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers in the Northeast. High hospital users were randomly assigned to either IPCC (n = 454) or standard VA care (n = 419) at four neuropsychiatric (NP) and six general medical and surgical (GMS) hospitals. National computerized data were used to track all VA health care service usage and costs for 2 years following program entry. At 9 of the 10 sites, IPCC treatment resulted in reduced inpatient service usage. Overall, for IPCC patients compared with control patients, average inpatient usage was 89 days (33%) less while average cost per patient (for IPCC inpatient, and outpatient services) was $15,556 (20%) less. Additionally, costs for IPCC patients compared with control patients were $33,295 (29%) less at NP sites but were $6,273 (15%) greater at GMS sites. At both NP and GMS sites, costs were lower for IPCC patients in two subgroups: veterans over age 45 and veterans with high levels of inpatient service use before program entry. No interaction was noted between the impact of IPCC on costs and other clinical or sociodemographic characteristics. Similarly, no linear relationship was observed between the intensity of IPCC services and the impact of IPCC on VA costs, although the two sites that did not fully implement the IPCC program had the poorest results. With these sites excluded, the total cost of care for IPCC patients at GMS sites was $579 (3%) more per year than that for the control patients.

Emissions of halocarbons from mobile vehicle air conditioning system in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Yan, H H; Guo, H; Ou, J M

2014-08-15

During the implementation of Montreal Protocol, emission inventories of halocarbons in different sectors at regional scale are fundamental to the formulation of relevant management strategy and inspection of the implementation efficiency. This study investigated the emission profile of halocarbons used in the mobile vehicle air conditioning system, the leading sector of refrigeration industry in terms of the refrigerant bank, market and emission, in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, using a bottom-up approach developed by 2006 IPCC Good Practice Guidance. The results showed that emissions of CFC-12 peaked at 53 tons ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) in 1992 and then gradually diminished, whereas HFC-134a presented an increasing emission trend since 1990s and the emissions of HFC-134a reached 65,000 tons CO2-equivelant (CO2-eq) by the end of 2011. Uncertainty analysis revealed relatively high levels of uncertainties for special-purpose vehicles and government vehicles. Moreover, greenhouse gas (GHG) abatements under different scenarios indicated that potential emission reduction of HFC-134a ranged from 4.1 to 8.4 × 10(5)tons CO2-eq. The findings in this study advance our knowledge of halocarbon emissions from mobile vehicle air conditioning system in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

UT/LS chemistry and transport

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-25

This SSWP summarizes important results in key areas since the last major aircraft impacts assessment [IPCC 1999]. Significant progress has been made in the areas of: Measurements of emissions of chemi-ions, NOx, and trace organic species from aircraf...

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Greenhouse Gases and Energy Intensity of Granite Rock Mining Operations in Thailand: A Case of Industrial Rock-Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittipongvises, Suthirat; Chavalparit, Orathai; Sutthirat, Chakkaphan

2016-12-01

This paper is aimed to systematically assess greenhouse gases (GHGs) and energy intensity of the granite rock mining operations in Thailand and also identify a range of feasible options to minimize their GHG emissions. Mining factories A, B and C, located in the Eastern region of Thailand, were selected as research case studies. The results indicated that the 3-year average of GHGs emissions from factories A to C was 3387 718 kgCO2e per year with approximately 2.92 kgCO2e per ton of granite rock produced over 2012 to 2014. Of this, the carbon intensity of grid-electricity consumption for the crushed rock production was 1.84 kgCO2/kWh. Diesel fuel combustion for transport activities in the mining factories was the greatest contributor to GHGs emissions (68 %) compared to the purchased electricity and explosion process, with 31 % and 1 %, respectively. In-Pit Crushing and Conveying (IPCC) installation, haul truck payload optimization and management, and reduction in tire rolling resistance have shown potential to reduce carbon emissions accounted for 20 % to 70 %.

Lack of prognostic significance of conventional peritoneal cytology in colorectal and gastric cancers: results of EVOCAPE 2 multicentre prospective study.

PubMed

Cotte, E; Peyrat, P; Piaton, E; Chapuis, F; Rivoire, M; Glehen, O; Arvieux, C; Mabrut, J-Y; Chipponi, J; Gilly, F-N

2013-07-01

In digestive cancers, the prognostic significance of intraperitoneal free cancer cells remains unclear (IPCC). The main objective of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of IPCC in colorectal and gastric adenocarcinoma. The secondary objectives were to evaluate the predictive significance of IPCC for the development of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) and to evaluate the prevalence of synchronous PC and IPCC. This was a prospective multicentre study. All patients undergoing surgery for a digestive tract cancer had peritoneal cytology taken. Patients with gastric and colorectal cancer with no residual tumour after surgery and no evidence of PC were followed-up for 2 years. The primary end point was overall survival. Between 2002 and 2007, 1364 patients were enrolled and 956 were followed-up over 2 years. Prevalence of IPCC was 5.7% in colon cancer, 0.6% in rectal cancer and 19.5% in gastric cancer. The overall 2-year survival rate for patients with IPCC was 34.7% versus 86.8% for patients with negative cytology (p<0.0001). By multivariate analysis, IPCC was not an independent prognostic factor. No relationship between cytology and recurrence was found. The presence of IPCC was not an independent prognostic and didn't add any additional prognostic information to the usual prognostic factors related to the tumour (pTNM and differentiation). Moreover the presence of IPCC detected with this method didn't appear to predict development of PC. Peritoneal cytology using conventional staining doesn't seem to be a useful tool for the staging of colorectal and gastric cancers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

75 FR 77475 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Subspecies of the Ringed Seal

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-10

... ice area are linked in the IPCC climate models to GHG emissions by the physics of radiation processes... scenario), a model that is known for incorporating advanced sea ice physics, and for which snow data were...

Analysis of potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in municipal solid waste in Brazil, in the state and city of Rio de Janeiro

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loureiro, S.M., E-mail: saulo@lima.coppe.ufrj.br; Rovere, E.L.L., E-mail: emilio@ppe.ufrj.br; Mahler, C.F., E-mail: mahler0503@yahoo.com

2013-05-15

Highlights: ► We constructed future scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases in waste. ► Was used the IPCC methodology for calculating emission inventories. ► We calculated the costs of abatement for emissions reduction in landfill waste. ► The results were compared to Brazil, state and city of Rio de Janeiro. ► The higher the environmental passive, the greater the possibility of use of biogas. - Abstract: This paper examines potential changes in solid waste policies for the reduction in GHG for the country of Brazil and one of its major states and cities, Rio de Janeiro, from 2005 to 2030.more » To examine these policy options, trends in solid waste quantities and associated GHG emissions are derived. Three alternative policy scenarios are evaluated in terms of effectiveness, technology, and economics and conclusions posited regarding optimal strategies for Brazil to implement. These scenarios are been building on the guidelines for national inventories of GHG emissions (IPCC, 2006) and adapted to Brazilian states and municipalities’ boundaries. Based on the results, it is possible to say that the potential revenue from products of solid waste management is more than sufficient to transform the current scenario in this country into one of financial and environmental gains, where the negative impacts of climate change have created a huge opportunity to expand infrastructure for waste management.« less

Creating rigorous pathways to monetize methane and nitrous oxide emission reductions at small scale rice farms in three states of semi-arid peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kritee, K.; Tiwari, R.; Nair, D.; Adhya, T. K.; Rudek, J.

2014-12-01

As a part of a joint undertaking by Environmental Defense Fund and the Fair Climate Network, we have measured reduction in methane and nitrous oxide emissions due to alternate "low carbon" rice cultivation practices for three ago-ecological zones in India for the past two years. Sampling for nitrous oxide and methane emissions was done on approximately 60-80% of the total number of days in a growing season and was based on modified GRACEnet protocol. In recognition of farmer's economic interest and global food security demands, we also measured the effect of rice cultivation practices on farm economics and yields. Our data from three agro-ecological zones for 2012-2014 suggest that, for semi-arid peninsular India, low-carbon rice cultivation practices offer large range of emission reduction potential (0.5-5 metric tons CO2e/acre/year). The regions with sandy soils (Alfisols) had high rates of nitrous oxide emissions even under baseline "flooded" rice cultivation regimes and, thus, the Tier 1 IPCC emissions factors grossly underestimate both the amount of nitrous oxide emission from conventional rice cultivation practices, and the extent to which it can be reduced through better fertilizer management. Also, the IPCC factors overestimate the methane emission reduction possible due to water management for rice paddies. Therefore, it is crucial to customize N and water management to each region such that yields and net GHG emission reduction are maximized. These practices also have the potential to decrease water use by 10-30% and improve long term soil health by optimizing organic matter and increasing water-holding capacity. In addition, through GPS based demarcation of farmer plots, recording baseline practices through extensive surveys, documenting the parameters required to aggregate and prove implementation of low carbon rice farming practices, and to model the GHG emission reduction over large scales, we have put forward a path for better monetization of GHG emission reductions which will incentivize adoption of such practices. The payoff is a "triple win" including increased long-term food security (through enhanced yields), rural economic development (through improved farm profitability and adaptation), and lower environmental impacts (including lower GHG emissions).

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

PubMed

Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

2012-02-01

Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Tropical And Sub-Tropical Agricultural Systems - A Review And Modelling Of Emission Factors.

PubMed

Albanito, Fabrizio; Lebender, Ulrike; Cornulier, Thomas; Sapkota, Tek B; Brentrup, Frank; Stirling, Clare; Hillier, Jon

2017-03-10

There has been much debate about the uncertainties associated with the estimation of direct and indirect agricultural nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in developing countries and in particular from tropical regions. In this study, we report an up-to-date review of the information published in peer-review journals on direct N 2 O emissions from agricultural systems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. We statistically analyze net-N 2 O-N emissions to estimate tropic-specific annual N 2 O emission factors (N 2 O-EFs) using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) which allowed the effects of multiple covariates to be modelled as linear or smooth non-linear continuous functions. Overall the mean N 2 O-EF was 1.2% for the tropics and sub-tropics, thus within the uncertainty range of IPCC-EF. On a regional basis, mean N 2 O-EFs were 1.4% for Africa, 1.1%, for Asia, 0.9% for Australia and 1.3% for Central &South America. Our annual N 2 O-EFs, estimated for a range of fertiliser rates using the available data, do not support recent studies hypothesising non-linear increase N 2 O-EFs as a function of applied N. Our findings highlight that in reporting annual N 2 O emissions and estimating N 2 O-EFs, particular attention should be paid in modelling the effect of study length on response of N 2 O.

Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Tropical And Sub-Tropical Agricultural Systems - A Review And Modelling Of Emission Factors

PubMed Central

Albanito, Fabrizio; Lebender, Ulrike; Cornulier, Thomas; Sapkota, Tek B.; Brentrup, Frank; Stirling, Clare; Hillier, Jon

2017-01-01

There has been much debate about the uncertainties associated with the estimation of direct and indirect agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in developing countries and in particular from tropical regions. In this study, we report an up-to-date review of the information published in peer-review journals on direct N2O emissions from agricultural systems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. We statistically analyze net-N2O-N emissions to estimate tropic-specific annual N2O emission factors (N2O-EFs) using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) which allowed the effects of multiple covariates to be modelled as linear or smooth non-linear continuous functions. Overall the mean N2O-EF was 1.2% for the tropics and sub-tropics, thus within the uncertainty range of IPCC-EF. On a regional basis, mean N2O-EFs were 1.4% for Africa, 1.1%, for Asia, 0.9% for Australia and 1.3% for Central & South America. Our annual N2O-EFs, estimated for a range of fertiliser rates using the available data, do not support recent studies hypothesising non-linear increase N2O-EFs as a function of applied N. Our findings highlight that in reporting annual N2O emissions and estimating N2O-EFs, particular attention should be paid in modelling the effect of study length on response of N2O. PMID:28281637

Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Tropical And Sub-Tropical Agricultural Systems - A Review And Modelling Of Emission Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albanito, Fabrizio; Lebender, Ulrike; Cornulier, Thomas; Sapkota, Tek B.; Brentrup, Frank; Stirling, Clare; Hillier, Jon

2017-03-01

There has been much debate about the uncertainties associated with the estimation of direct and indirect agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in developing countries and in particular from tropical regions. In this study, we report an up-to-date review of the information published in peer-review journals on direct N2O emissions from agricultural systems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. We statistically analyze net-N2O-N emissions to estimate tropic-specific annual N2O emission factors (N2O-EFs) using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) which allowed the effects of multiple covariates to be modelled as linear or smooth non-linear continuous functions. Overall the mean N2O-EF was 1.2% for the tropics and sub-tropics, thus within the uncertainty range of IPCC-EF. On a regional basis, mean N2O-EFs were 1.4% for Africa, 1.1%, for Asia, 0.9% for Australia and 1.3% for Central & South America. Our annual N2O-EFs, estimated for a range of fertiliser rates using the available data, do not support recent studies hypothesising non-linear increase N2O-EFs as a function of applied N. Our findings highlight that in reporting annual N2O emissions and estimating N2O-EFs, particular attention should be paid in modelling the effect of study length on response of N2O.

Technical fixes and Climate Change: Optimizing for Risks and Consequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.

2010-09-16

Scientists and society in general are becoming increasingly concerned about the risks of climate change from the emission of greenhouse gases [IPCC, 2007]. Yet emissions continue to increase [Raupach et al., 2007], and reductions soon enough to avoid large and undesirable impacts requires a near revolutionary global transformation of energy and transportation systems [Hoffert et al., 1998]. The size of the transformation and lack of an effective societal response has motivated some to explore other quite controversial strategies to mitigate some of the planetary consequences of these emissions.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: A Challenge to U.S. Sovereignty

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-07

biofuels, and fuel-conserving winglets .51 The technological improvements are not insignificant. The IPCC assumed that advances in aircraft...16, 2012.) 51 Winglets are extensions added to the ends of an aircraft wings. They disrupt the wingtip vortices created during the production of lift

Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

2014-05-01

Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2 emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate stabilization: framing regional options.

PubMed

Olabisi, Laura Schmitt; Reich, Peter B; Johnson, Kris A; Kapuscinski, Anne R; Su, Sangwon H; Wilson, Elizabeth J

2009-03-15

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will require reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by as much as 80% by 2050. Subnational efforts to cut emissions will inform policy development nationally and globally. We projected GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reduction by 2050. A portfolio of conservation strategies, including electricity conservation, increased vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and reduced vehicle miles traveled, is likely the most cost-effective option for Minnesota and could reduce emissions by 18% below 2005 levels. An 80% GHG reduction would require complete decarbonization of the electricity and transportation sectors, combined with carbon capture and sequestration at power plants, or deep cuts in other relatively more intransigent GHG-emitting sectors. In order to achieve ambitious GHG reduction goals, policymakers should promote aggressive conservation efforts, which would probably have negative net costs, while phasing in alternative fuels to replace coal and motor gasoline over the long-term.

The greenhouse gas balance of a drained fen peatland is mainly controlled by land-use rather than soil organic carbon content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eickenscheidt, T.; Heinichen, J.; Drösler, M.

2015-04-01

Drained organic soils are considered as hotspots for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Particularly arable lands and intensively used grasslands have been regarded as the main producers of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, GHG balances of former peatlands and associated organic soils not considered as peatland according to the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not been investigated so far. Therefore, our study addressed the question to what extent the soil organic carbon (SOC) content affects the GHG release of drained organic soils under two different land-use types (arable land and intensively used grassland). Both land-use types were established on a mollic Gleysol (named Cmedium) as well as on a sapric Histosol (named Chigh). The two soil types significantly differed in their SOC contents in the topsoil (Cmedium: 9.4-10.9% SOC; Chigh: 16.1-17.2% SOC). We determined GHG fluxes (CO2, N2O and methane (CH4)) over a period of 2 years. The daily and annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 was determined with the closed dynamic chamber technique and by modeling the ecosystem respiration (RECO) and the gross primary production (GPP). N2O and CH4 were determined by the close chamber technique. Estimated NEE of CO2 significantly differed between the two land-use types with lower NEE values (-6 to 1707 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1) at the arable sites and higher values (1354 to 1823 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1) at the grassland sites. No effect on NEE was found regarding the SOC content. Significantly higher annual N2O exchange rates were observed at the arable sites (0.23-0.86 g N m-2 yr-1) compared to the grassland sites (0.12-0.31 g N m-2 yr-1). Furthermore, N2O fluxes from the Chigh sites significantly exceeded those of the Cmedium sites. CH4 fluxes were found to be close to zero at all plots. Estimated global warming potential, calculated for a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) revealed a very high release of GHGs from all plots ranging from 1837 to 7095 g CO2 eq. m-2 yr-1. Calculated global warming potential (GWP) values did not differ between soil types and partly exceeded the IPCC default emission factors of the Tier 1 approach by far. However, despite being subject to high uncertainties, the results clearly highlight the importance to adjust the IPCC guidelines for organic soils not falling under the definition, to avoid a significant underestimation of GHG emissions in the corresponding sectors of the national climate reporting. Furthermore, the present results revealed that mainly the land-use including the management and not the SOC content is responsible for the height of GHG exchange from intensive farming on drained organic soils.

Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

PubMed

Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

2010-04-01

This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions--Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia.

PubMed

Dace, Elina; Muizniece, Indra; Blumberga, Andra; Kaczala, Fabio

2015-09-15

European Union (EU) Member States have agreed to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (non-ETS). That includes also emissions from agricultural sector. Although the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a methodology for assessment of GHG emissions from agriculture, the forecasting options are limited, especially when policies and their interaction with the agricultural system are tested. Therefore, an advanced tool, a system dynamics model, was developed that enables assessment of effects various decisions and measures have on agricultural GHG emissions. The model is based on the IPCC guidelines and includes the main elements of an agricultural system, i.e. land management, livestock farming, soil fertilization and crop production, as well as feedback mechanisms between the elements. The case of Latvia is selected for simulations, as agriculture generates 22% of the total anthropogenic GHG emissions in the country. The results demonstrate that there are very limited options for GHG mitigation in the agricultural sector. Thereby, reaching the non-ETS GHG emission targets will be very challenging for Latvia, as the level of agricultural GHG emissions will be exceeded considerably above the target levels. Thus, other non-ETS sectors will have to reduce their emissions drastically to "neutralize" the agricultural sector's emissions for reaching the EU's common ambition to move towards low-carbon economy. The developed model may serve as a decision support tool for impact assessment of various measures and decisions on the agricultural system's GHG emissions. Although the model is applied to the case of Latvia, the elements and structure of the model developed are similar to agricultural systems in many countries. By changing numeric values of certain parameters, the model can be applied to analyze decisions and measures in other countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrous oxide emissions in Chinese vegetable systems: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaozhong; Zou, Chunqin; Gao, Xiaopeng; Guan, Xilin; Zhang, Wushuai; Zhang, Yueqiang; Shi, Xiaojun; Chen, Xinping

2018-08-01

China accounts for more than half of the world's vegetable production, and identifying the contribution of vegetable production to nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in China is therefore important. We performed a meta-analysis that included 153 field measurements of N 2 O emissions from 21 field studies in China. Our goal was to quantify N 2 O emissions and fertilizer nitrogen (N) based-emission factors (EFs) in Chinese vegetable systems and to clarify the effects of rates and types of N fertilizer in both open-field and greenhouse systems. The results indicated that the intensive vegetable systems in China had an average N 2 O emission of 3.91 kg N 2 O-N ha -1 and an EF of 0.69%. Although the EF was lower than the IPCC default value of 1.0%, the average N 2 O emission was generally greater than in other cropping systems due to greater input of N fertilizers. The EFs were similar in greenhouse vs. open-field systems but N 2 O emissions were about 1.4 times greater in greenhouses. The EFs were not affected by N rate, but N 2 O emissions for both open-field and greenhouse systems increased with N rate. The total and fertilizer-induced N 2 O emissions, as well as EFs, were unaffected by the type of fertilizers in greenhouse system under same N rates. In addition to providing basic information about N 2 O emissions from Chinese vegetable systems, the results suggest that N 2 O emissions could be reduced without reducing yields by treating vegetable systems in China with a combination of synthetic N fertilizer and manure at optimized economic rates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavrotas, George, E-mail: mavrotas@chemeng.ntua.gr; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos

2013-09-15

Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty yearsmore » they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.« less

Changes in atmospheric sulfur burdens and concentrations and resulting radiative forcings under IPCC SRES emission scenarios for 1990-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, M.; Boucher, O.; Hauglustaine, D.

2005-03-01

Simulations of the global sulfur cycle under the IPCC SRES scenarios have been performed. Sulfur dioxide and sulfate burdens, as well as the direct and first indirect radiative forcing (RF) by sulfate aerosols only, are presented for the period 1990 to 2100. By 2100, global sulfur emission rates decline everywhere in all scenarios. At that time, the anthropogenic sulfate burden ranges from 0.34 to 1.03 times the 1990 value of 0.47 Tg S. Direct and indirect global and annually mean RFs relative to the year 1990 are near 0 or positive (range of -0.07 to 0.28 Wm-2 and 0.01 to 0.38 Wm-2 for the direct and indirect effects, respectively). For reference these forcings amount respectively to -0.42 and -0.79 Wm-2 in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions (around 1750). Sulfur aerosols will therefore induce a smaller cooling effect in 2100 than in 1990 relative to preindustrial conditions. For the period 1990 to 2100, the forcing efficiencies (computed relatively to 1990) are fairly constant for the direct effect (around -160 W (g sulfate)-1). The forcing efficiencies for the indirect effect are around -200 and -100 W (g sulfate)-1 for negative and positive burden differences, respectively. This is due to a shift in regional patterns of emissions and a saturation in the indirect effect. The simulated annually averaged SO2 concentrations for A1B scenario in 2020 are close to air quality objectives for public health in some parts of Africa and exceed these objectives in some parts of China and Korea. Moreover, sulfate deposition rates are estimated to increase by 200% from the present level in East and Southeast Asia. This shows that Asia may experience in the future sulfur-related environmental and human health problems as important as Europe and the United States did in the 1970s.

Introduction to this special issue on ocean acidification: the pathway from science to policy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathis, Jeremy T.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Williamson, Phillip

2015-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) is a progressive decrease in the pH of seawater over decades, caused primarily by uptake of excess atmospheric CO2 and accompanied by changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. Scientific studies designed to examine the effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on global carbon fluxes have also led to the detection of OA. During the last decade, this phenomenon has surged to the attention of not only scientists but also policymakers and the public. OA chemistry is well understood and follows first principles of acid-base chemistry (e.g., Gattuso and Hansson, 2011; Box 1 in McLaughlin et al.). Today, total anthropogenic release of CO2 exceeds nine petagrams of carbon annually, with ~85% coming directly from industrial sources and ~15% from changes in land use. The three major sinks for this CO2 are: ~46% of CO2 emitted remains in the atmosphere, ~29% is absorbed by the terrestrial biosphere, and the ocean absorbs the remaining ~26% (Le Quéré et al., 2014), resulting in OA. Since the Industrial Revolution, global average surface ocean pH has dropped 0.1 unit (about a 30% increase in acidity; IPCC, 2013), and it is expected to drop another 0.3 to 0.4 units by 2100 (100-150% increase in acidity) if CO2 emissions continue in a business-as-usual scenario (Orr et al., 2005; IPCC, 2013). Some areas of the ocean, such as coastal regions, upwelling zones, and polar seas, may be subjected to much greater chemical perturbations from OA than indicated by such globally averaged values (e.g., Feely et al., 2008; Mathis et al.).

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

75 FR 12232 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

77 FR 11533 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2010; Notice of Availability and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-27

... recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory... of Atmospheric Programs, Climate Change Division, (202) 343-9432, [email protected

78 FR 12310 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-22

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

76 FR 10026 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2009

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-23

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

2015-12-01

Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

Methane emission to the atmosphere from landfills in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Pedro A.; Asensio-Ramos, María; Rodríguez, Fátima; Alonso, Mar; García-Merino, Marta; Amonte, Cecilia; Melián, Gladys V.; Barrancos, José; Rodríguez-Delgado, Miguel A.; Hernández-Abad, Marta; Pérez, Erica; Alonso, Monica; Tassi, Franco; Raco, Brunella; Pérez, Nemesio M.

2017-04-01

Methane (CH4) is one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, and is increasing in the atmosphere by 0.6% each year (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2013). This gas is produced in landfills in large quantities following the anaerobic degradation of organic matter. The IPCC has estimated that more than 10% of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 are originated in landfills. Even after years of being no operative (closed), a significant amount of landfill gas could be released to the atmosphere through its surface as diffuse or fugitive degassing. Many landfills currently report their CH4 emissions to the atmosphere using model-based methods, which are based on the rate of production of CH4, the oxidation rate of CH4 and the amount of CH4 recovered (Bingemer and Crutzen, 1987). This approach often involves large uncertainties due to inaccuracies of input data and many assumptions in the estimation. In fact, the estimated CH4 emissions from landfills in the Canary Islands published by the Spanish National Emission and Pollutant Sources Registration (PRTR-Spain) seem to be overestimated due to the use of protocols and analytical methodologies based on mathematical models. For this reason, direct measurements to estimate CH4 emissions in landfills are essential to reduce this uncertainty. In order to estimate the CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from landfills in the Canary Islands 23 surveys have been performed since 1999. Each survey implies hundreds of CO2and CH4 efflux measurements covering the landfill surface area. Surface landfill CO2 efflux measurements were carried out at each sampling site by means of a portable non-dispersive infrared spectrophotometer (NDIR) model LICOR Li800 following the accumulation chamber method. Samples of landfill gases were taken in the gas accumulated in the chamber and CO2 and CH4 were analyzed using a double channel VARIAN 4900 micro-GC. The CH4 efflux measurent was computed combining CO2 efflux and CH4/CO2 ratio. To quantify the the diffuse or fugitive CO2 and CH4 emission, gas efflux contour maps were constructed using sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) as interpolation method. Considering that (a) there are 5 controlled landfills in the Canary Islands, (b) the average area of the 23 studied cells is 0.17 km2 and (c) the mean value of the CH4 emission estimated for the studied cells range between 6.9 and 8.1 kt km-2 y-1, the estimated CH4 emission to the atmosphere from landfills in the Canary Islands showed a range of 7.0 - 7.8 kt y-1. On the contrary and for the same period of time, the PRTR-Spain estimates CH4 emission in the order of 10.3 - 14.9 kt y-1, nearly two times our estimated value. This result demonstrates the need to perform direct measurements to estimate the surface fugitive emission of CH4 from landfills. Bingemer, H. G., and P. J. Crutzen (1987). The production of methane from solid wastes, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 2182-2187

Review of CO2 Reduction Technologies using Mineral Carbonation of Iron and Steel Making Slag in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norhana Selamat, Siti; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Rashid, Muhammad Hanif Abdul; Fauzi Ahmad, Mohd; Mohamad, Fariza; Ismail, Al Emran; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Zain, Mohd Zamzuri Mohd; Abu Bakar, Elmi; Seiji, Yokoyama

2017-10-01

Climate change, greenhouse gas effect, and global warming is envisioning to turn more awful and more terrible by year. Since the leading cause of global warming is uncontrolled CO2 in atmosphere. The amount of unused steel slag is expected to increment later on, steel industries is one of the mechanical industries that contribute the CO2 emission. That because this businesses deliver carbon in light of powers reductant and substantial volume of steel. The changes of atmosphere these day is truly developing concern and that make steel creator are confronted with test of discovering methods for bringing down CO2 emission. Malaysia is working decidedly in the diminishment of CO2 gas. There are a few techniques in decreasing the amount of CO2 in the air as underlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), an organization under the United Country however CCS is an extremely encouraging innovation to moderate CO2 emission in air. Mineral carbonation is another technique to store carbon dioxide permanently, long term stability and vast capacity.

CH4 and N2O emissions embodied in international trade of meat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caro, Dario; LoPresti, Anna; Davis, Steven J.; Bastianoni, Simone; Caldeira, Ken

2014-11-01

Although previous studies have quantified carbon dioxide emissions embodied in products traded internationally, there has been limited attention to other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Following IPCC guidelines, we estimate non-CO2 emissions from beef, pork and chicken produced in 237 countries over the period 1990-2010, and assign these emissions to the country where the meat is ultimately consumed. We find that, between 1990 and 2010, an average of 32.8 Mt CO2-eq emissions (using 100 year global warming potentials) are embodied in beef, pork and chicken traded internationally. Further, over the 20 year period, the quantity of CO2-eq emissions embodied in traded meat increased by 19%. The largest trade flows of emissions embodied in meat were from Brazil and Argentina to Russia (2.8 and 1.4 Mt of CO2-eq, respectively). Trade flows within the European region are also substantial: beef and pork exported from France embodied 3.3 Mt and 0.4 Mt of CO2-eq, respectively. Emissions factor of meat production (i.e. CO2-eq emissions per kg of meat) produced depend on ambient temperature, development level, livestock category (e.g. cattle, pork, and chicken) and livestock management practices. Thus, trade may result in an overall increase of GHG emissions when meat-consuming countries import meat from countries with a greater emissions intensity of meat production rather than producing the meat domestically. Comparing the emissions intensity of meat production of trading partners, we assess trade flows according to whether they tend to reduce or increase global emissions from meat production.

Effect of Practice Integration between Urologists and Radiation Oncologists on Prostate Cancer Treatment Patterns

PubMed Central

Bekelman, Justin E.; Suneja, Gita; Guzzo, Thomas; Evan Pollack, Craig; Armstrong, Katrina; Epstein, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

Purpose National attention has focused on whether urology-radiation oncology practice integration – known as integrated prostate cancer centers (IPCCs) – contributes to use of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), a common and expensive treatment for prostate cancer. Methods We examined prostate cancer treatment patterns pre- and post-conversion of a urology practice to an IPCC in July, 2006. Using the SEER-Medicare database, we identified patients age ≥ 65 years diagnosed in one state-wide registry with non-metastatic prostate cancer between 2004 and 2007 and classified patients into 3 groups: (1) those seen by IPCC physicians (exposure group); (2) those living in the same hospital referral region (HRR) and not seen by IPCC physicians (HRR-control group); and (3) those living elsewhere in the state (state-control group). We compared changes in treatment among the 3 groups, adjusting for patient, clinical, and socio-economic factors. Results Compared with the 8.1 percentage point (ppt) increase in adjusted IMRT use in the state-control group, IMRT increased 20.3 ppts (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.4, 27.1) in the IPCC group and 19.2 ppts (95% CI 9.6, 28.9) in the HRR-control group. Androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), for which Medicare reimbursement declined sharply, decreased similarly in the IPCC and HRR-control groups. Prostatectomy declined significantly in the IPCC group. Conclusions Coincident with the conversion of a urology group practice to an IPCC, we observed increases in IMRT and decreases in ADT among patients seen by IPCC physicians and those seen in the surrounding healthcare market that were not observed in the remainder of the state. PMID:23399652

The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Arora, Vivek K.; Lee, Warren G.; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 °C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical.

Impacts of episodic storms on coastal wetland processes in the Northeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Climate model simulations corresponding to IPCC emissions scenarios suggest that by 2100, increases in precipitation intensity, the number of heavy precipitation events, and the intensity of the wettest events are all expected to increase, while concurrently, one to three month d...

The advantage of calculating emission reduction with local emission factor in South Sumatera region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchari, Erika

2017-11-01

Green House Gases (GHG) which have different Global Warming Potential, usually expressed in CO2 equivalent. German has succeeded in emission reduction of CO2 in year 1990s, while Japan since 2001 increased load factor of public transports. Indonesia National Medium Term Development Plan, 2015-2019, has set up the target of minimum 26% and maximum 41% National Emission Reduction in 2019. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), defined three types of accuracy in counting emission of GHG, as tier 1, tier 2, and tier 3. In tier 1, calculation is based on fuel used and average emission (default), which is obtained from statistical data. While in tier 2, calculation is based fuel used and local emission factors. Tier 3 is more accurate from those in tier 1 and 2, and the calculation is based on fuel used from modelling method or from direct measurement. This paper is aimed to evaluate the calculation with tier 2 and tier 3 in South Sumatera region. In 2012, Regional Action Plan for Greenhouse Gases of South Sumatera for 2020 is about 6,569,000 ton per year and with tier 3 is about without mitigation and 6,229,858.468 ton per year. It was found that the calculation in tier 3 is more accurate in terms of fuel used of variation vehicles so that the actions of mitigation can be planned more realistically.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die-back, warming subarctic peat rich wetlands (methane), thawing permafrost (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), and Arctic subsea floor methane.

Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

2017-12-01

India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

Greenhouse gas emissions from dairy manure management: a review of field-based studies.

PubMed

Owen, Justine J; Silver, Whendee L

2015-02-01

Livestock manure management accounts for almost 10% of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture globally, and contributes an equal proportion to the US methane emission inventory. Current emissions inventories use emissions factors determined from small-scale laboratory experiments that have not been compared to field-scale measurements. We compiled published data on field-scale measurements of greenhouse gas emissions from working and research dairies and compared these to rates predicted by the IPCC Tier 2 modeling approach. Anaerobic lagoons were the largest source of methane (368 ± 193 kg CH4 hd(-1) yr(-1)), more than three times that from enteric fermentation (~120 kg CH4 hd(-1) yr(-1)). Corrals and solid manure piles were large sources of nitrous oxide (1.5 ± 0.8 and 1.1 ± 0.7 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1), respectively). Nitrous oxide emissions from anaerobic lagoons (0.9 ± 0.5 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1)) and barns (10 ± 6 kg N2O hd(-1) yr(-1)) were unexpectedly large. Modeled methane emissions underestimated field measurement means for most manure management practices. Modeled nitrous oxide emissions underestimated field measurement means for anaerobic lagoons and manure piles, but overestimated emissions from slurry storage. Revised emissions factors nearly doubled slurry CH4 emissions for Europe and increased N2O emissions from solid piles and lagoons in the United States by an order of magnitude. Our results suggest that current greenhouse gas emission factors generally underestimate emissions from dairy manure and highlight liquid manure systems as promising target areas for greenhouse gas mitigation. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Refining the intraoperative measurement of the distal intrapancreatic part of a choledochal cyst during laparoscopic repair allows near total excision.

PubMed

Koga, Hiroyuki; Okawada, Manabu; Doi, Takashi; Miyano, Go; Lane, Geoffrey J; Yamataka, Atsuyuki

2015-10-01

During surgery for choledochal cyst (CC), any intrapancreatic CC (IPCC) must also be excised to prevent postoperative pancreatitis and stone formation. We report our technique for laparoscopic total IPCC excision (n = 16; mean age 6.0 years). We insert a fine ureteroscope with a light source into the opened CC through an extra 3.9-mm trocar placed in the epigastrium through a minute incision to identify the pancreatic duct orifice. By pulling the end of the ureteroscope emerging from the trocar gently to withdraw the tip from the pancreatic duct to where distal dissection was ceased under laparoscopic view, the IPCC can be measured. If longer than 5 mm, the distal CC is dissected further caudally until it is less than 5 mm. For accuracy, the distal CC is elevated with a suture that is exteriorized and clamped to provide constant traction. The IPCC was able to be measured in 11/16 (68 %). Initial lengths measured were 3-10 mm (5.2 ± 2.7 mm). Final IPCC were all 5 mm or less. Surgery was uncomplicated without any pancreatic duct injury and postoperative recovery was unremarkable. Follow-up MRI at 32 months showed no IPCC in any case. Measuring the IPCC enables total CC excision, thus reducing the potential for postoperative complications.

Forest fires in Mediterranean countries: CO2 emissions and mitigation possibilities through prescribed burning.

PubMed

Vilén, Terhi; Fernandes, Paulo M

2011-09-01

Forest fires are an integral part of the ecology of the Mediterranean Basin; however, fire incidence has increased dramatically during the past decades and fire is expected to become more prevalent in the future due to climate change. Fuel modification by prescribed burning reduces the spread and intensity potential of subsequent wildfires. We used the most recently published data to calculate the average annual wildfire CO(2) emissions in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain following the IPCC guidelines. The effect of prescribed burning on emissions was calculated for four scenarios of prescribed burning effectiveness based on data from Portugal. Results show that prescribed burning could have a considerable effect on the carbon balance of the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in Mediterranean countries. However, uncertainty in emission estimates remains large, and more accurate data is needed, especially regarding fuel load and fuel consumption in different vegetation types and fuel layers and the total area protected from wildfire per unit area treated by prescribed burning, i.e. the leverage of prescribed burning.

Controlling factors of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions at the field-scale in an agricultural slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilain, Guillaume; Garnier, Josette; Tallec, Gaëlle; Tournebize, Julien; Cellier, Pierre; Flipo, Nicolas

2010-05-01

Agricultural practices widely contribute to the atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) concentration increase and are the major source of N2O which account for 24% of the global annual emission (IPCC, 2007). Soil nitrification and denitrification are the microbial processes responsible for the production of N2O, which also depends on soil characteristics and management. Besides their control by various factors, such as climate, soil conditions and management (content of NO3- and NH4+, soil water content, presence of degradable organic material…), the role of topography is less known although it can play an important role on N2O emissions (Izaurralde et al., 2004). Due to the scarcity of data on N2O direct vs. indirect emission rate from agriculture in the Seine Basin (Garnier et al., 2009), one of the objectives of the study conducted here was to determine the N2O emission rates of the various land use representative for the Seine Basin, in order to better assess the direct N2O emissions, and to explore controlling factor such as meteorology, topography, soil properties and crop successions. The main objective of this study was at the same time to characterize N2O fluxes variability along a transect from an agricultural plateau to a river and to analyze the influence of landscape position on these emissions. We conducted this study in the Orgeval catchment (Seine basin, France; between 48°47' and 48°55' N, and 03°00' and 03°55' E) from May 2008 to August 2009 on two agricultural fields cropped with wheat, barley, oats, corn. N2O fluxes were monitored from weekly to bimonthly using static manual chambers placed along the chosen transect in five different landscape positions from the plateau to the River. This study has shown that soil moisture (expressed as Water Filled Pore Space) and NO3- soil concentrations explained most of the N2O flux variability during the sampling period. Most of N2O was emitted directly after N fertilization application during a relatively short period of one month. Landscape position strongly affected cumulative N2O emissions which were more than three times higher in footslope position (annual budget of 4 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) than in shoulder (1.1 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) or slope positions (1.1 and 1.2 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1), where soil water contents were higher (mean 68.4% WFPS in footslope position whereas mean WFPS were 50.4 and 60.5% in slope positions and 58% in shoulder position). N2O emissions were relatively low (0.5 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) and did not show much annual variation in unfertilized riparian buffer. Garnier, J., Billen, G., Vilain, G., Martinez, A., Silvestre, M., Mounier, E., & Toche, F., 2009. Nitrous oxide (N2O) in the Seine river and basin: Observations and budgets. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 133, 223-233. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for Policy Makers, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Izaurralde, R. C., Lemke, R. L., Goddard, T. W., McConkey, B., & Zhang, Z., 2004. Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Toposequences in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Soil Sci Soc Am J 68, 1285-1294.

SEEG initiative estimates of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2015.

PubMed

de Azevedo, Tasso Rezende; Costa Junior, Ciniro; Brandão Junior, Amintas; Cremer, Marcelo Dos Santos; Piatto, Marina; Tsai, David Shiling; Barreto, Paulo; Martins, Heron; Sales, Márcio; Galuchi, Tharic; Rodrigues, Alessandro; Morgado, Renato; Ferreira, André Luis; Barcellos E Silva, Felipe; Viscondi, Gabriel de Freitas; Dos Santos, Karoline Costal; Cunha, Kamyla Borges da; Manetti, Andrea; Coluna, Iris Moura Esteves; Albuquerque, Igor Reis de; Junior, Shigueo Watanabe; Leite, Clauber; Kishinami, Roberto

2018-05-29

This work presents the SEEG platform, a 46-year long dataset of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Brazil (1970-2015) providing more than 2 million data records for the Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Waste and Land Use Change Sectors at national and subnational levels. The SEEG dataset was developed by the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian civil society initiative, based on the IPCC guidelines and Brazilian National Inventories embedded with country specific emission factors and processes, raw data from multiple official and non-official sources, and organized together with social and economic indicators. Once completed, the SEEG dataset was converted into a spreadsheet format and shared via web-platform that, by means of simple queries, allows users to search data by emission sources and country and state activities. Because of its effectiveness in producing and making available data on a consistent and accessible basis, SEEG may significantly increase the capacity of civil society, scientists and stakeholders to understand and anticipate trends related to GHG emissions as well as its implications to public policies in Brazil.

SEEG initiative estimates of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2015

PubMed Central

de Azevedo, Tasso Rezende; Costa Junior, Ciniro; Brandão Junior, Amintas; Cremer, Marcelo dos Santos; Piatto, Marina; Tsai, David Shiling; Barreto, Paulo; Martins, Heron; Sales, Márcio; Galuchi, Tharic; Rodrigues, Alessandro; Morgado, Renato; Ferreira, André Luis; Barcellos e Silva, Felipe; Viscondi, Gabriel de Freitas; dos Santos, Karoline Costal; Cunha, Kamyla Borges da; Manetti, Andrea; Coluna, Iris Moura Esteves; Albuquerque, Igor Reis de; Junior, Shigueo Watanabe; Leite, Clauber; Kishinami, Roberto

2018-01-01

This work presents the SEEG platform, a 46-year long dataset of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Brazil (1970–2015) providing more than 2 million data records for the Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Waste and Land Use Change Sectors at national and subnational levels. The SEEG dataset was developed by the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian civil society initiative, based on the IPCC guidelines and Brazilian National Inventories embedded with country specific emission factors and processes, raw data from multiple official and non-official sources, and organized together with social and economic indicators. Once completed, the SEEG dataset was converted into a spreadsheet format and shared via web-platform that, by means of simple queries, allows users to search data by emission sources and country and state activities. Because of its effectiveness in producing and making available data on a consistent and accessible basis, SEEG may significantly increase the capacity of civil society, scientists and stakeholders to understand and anticipate trends related to GHG emissions as well as its implications to public policies in Brazil. PMID:29809176

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

Greenhouse gas emissions from dairy manure management in a Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Owen, Justine J; Silver, Whendee L

2017-03-01

Livestock agriculture is a major source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with a substantial proportion of emissions derived from manure management. Accurate estimates of emissions related to management practices and climate are needed for identifying the best approaches to minimize, and potentially mitigate, GHG emissions. Current emissions models such as those of the IPCC, however, are based on emissions factors that have not been broadly tested against field-scale measurements, due to a lack of data. We used a diverse set of measurements over 22 months across a range of substrate conditions on a working dairy to determine patterns and controls on soil-based GHG fluxes. Although dairy soils and substrates differed by management unit, GHG fluxes were poorly predicted by these or climate variables. The manure pile had the greatest GHG emissions, and though temperature increased and O 2 concentration decreased following mixing, we detected almost no change in GHG fluxes due to mixing. Corral fluxes were characterized by hotspots and hot moments driven by patterns in deposition. Annual scraping kept the soil and accumulated manure pack thin, producing drier conditions, particularly in the warm dry season. Summed over area, corral fluxes had the greatest non-CO 2 global warming potential. The field had net CH 4 consumption, but CH 4 uptake was insufficient to offset N 2 O emissions on an area basis. All sites emitted N 2 O with a similar or greater climate impact than CH 4 . Our results highlight the importance of N 2 O emissions, a less commonly measured GHG, from manure management and present potential opportunities for GHG emissions reductions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

[Discussion on reduction potential of CH4 emission intensity for early off-take practice of grazing yak].

PubMed

Wang, Shi-Ping; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Ya-Yun; Bai, Ling

2014-08-01

The case study preliminarily compared the CH4 reduction potential and CH4 emission intensity of 7 year-old and 4 year-old grazing yak after early off-take practice based on the 2006 IPCC GHG inventory guidelines and under the premise of equal herbage consumption. Our results showed that the total CH4 emission was greater by about 86.3 kg for 2.1 4-year yaks compared with 7 years old yak during their life assuming that their total herbage consumption was the same, because total herbage consumption for a 7-year yak was equal to that of 2.1 4-year yaks. However, CH4 emission per unit body weight (1.374 kg x kg(-1)) for a 7-year yak (i. e. emission intensity) was higher than that of 2.1 4-year yaks (0.973 kg x kg(-1)) because total body weight of 2.1 4-year yaks was higher by 192 kg than that of a 7-year yak. According to CH4 emission intensity, change of the early off-take practice from 7-year to 4-year yak could reduce 77 kg CH4 if producing 192 kg body weight through 2.1 4-year yaks compared with a 7-year yak, i. e. reduction potential was about 1 600 kg CO2 equivalent under the same consuming forage. Therefore, for grassland-based animal husbandry, early off-take practice for grazing animals had a great reduction potential in the intensity of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions per unit output rather than total emissions of GHGs.

The greenhouse gas balance of a drained fen peatland is mainly controlled by land-use rather than soil organic carbon content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eickenscheidt, T.; Heinichen, J.; Drösler, M.

2015-09-01

Drained organic soils are considered to be hotspots for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Arable lands and intensively used grasslands, in particular, have been regarded as the main producers of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, GHG balances of former peatlands and associated organic soils not considered to be peatland according to the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not been investigated so far. Therefore, our study addressed the question to what extent the soil organic carbon (SOC) content affects the GHG release of drained organic soils under two different land-use types (arable land and intensively used grassland). Both land-use types were established on a Mollic Gleysol (labeled Cmedium) as well as on a Sapric Histosol (labeled Chigh). The two soil types differed significantly in their SOC contents in the topsoil (Cmedium: 9.4-10.9 % SOC; Chigh: 16.1-17.2 % SOC). We determined GHG fluxes over a period of 1 or 2 years in case of N2O or methane (CH4) and CO2, respectively. The daily and annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 was determined by measuring NEE and the ecosystem respiration (RECO) with the closed dynamic chamber technique and by modeling the RECO and the gross primary production (GPP). N2O and CH4 were measured with the static closed chamber technique. Estimated NEE of CO2 differed significantly between the two land-use types, with lower NEE values (-6 to 1707 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1) at the arable sites and higher values (1354 to 1823 g CO2-C m-2 yr-1) at the grassland sites. No effect on NEE was found regarding the SOC content. Significantly higher annual N2O exchange rates were observed at the arable sites (0.23-0.86 g N m-2 yr-1) than at the grassland sites (0.12-0.31 g N m-2 yr-1). Furthermore, N2O fluxes from the Chigh sites significantly exceeded those of the Cmedium sites. CH4 fluxes were found to be close to zero at all plots. Estimated global warming potential, calculated for a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) revealed a very high release of GHGs from all plots ranging from 1837 to 7095 g CO2 eq. m-2 yr-1. Calculated global warming potential (GWP) values did not differ between soil types and partly exceeded the IPCC default emission factors of the Tier 1 approach by far. However, despite being subject to high uncertainties, the results clearly highlight the importance of adjusting the IPCC guidelines for organic soils not falling under the definition in order to avoid a significant underestimation of GHG emissions in the corresponding sectors of the national climate reporting. Furthermore, the present results revealed that mainly the type of land-use, including the management type, and not the SOC content is responsible for the height of GHG exchange from intensive farming on drained organic soils.

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etminan, M.; Myhre, G.; Highwood, E. J.; Shine, K. P.

2016-12-01

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750-2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m-2 to 0.61 W m-2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750-2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.

PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China: overview of situation and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hua

This work reviewed the observational status of PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China. It told us the observational facts on the ratios of typical types of aerosol components to the total PM2.5/PM10, and daily and seasonal change of near surface ozone concentration at different cities of China; the global concentration distribution of tropospheric ozone observed by satellite in 2010-2013 was also given for comparison; the PM2.5 concentration distribution and their seasonal change in China region were simulated by an aerosol chemistry-global climate modeling system. Different contribution from five kinds of aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 was analyzed. Then, it linked the emissions of aerosol and greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing and thus gave their climatic effect by reducing their emissions on the basis of most recently published IPCC AR5. Finally it suggested policies on reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) (such as PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone) in China from protecting both climate and environment.

Quantification of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Predisposal Stage of Municipal Solid Waste Management.

PubMed

Zhou, Chuanbin; Jiang, Daqian; Zhao, Zhilan

2017-01-03

Municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal represents one of the largest sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the biogenic GHG emissions in the predisposal stage of MSW management (i.e., the time from waste being dropped off in community or household garbage bins to being transported to disposal sites) are excluded from the IPCC inventory methodology and rarely discussed in academic literature. Herein, we quantify the effluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) from garbage bins in five communities along the urban-rural gradient in Beijing in four seasons. We find that the annual average CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O effluxes in the predisposal stage were (1.6 ± 0.9)10 3 , 0.049 ± 0.016, and 0.94 ± 0.54 mg kg -1 h -1 (dry matter basis) and had significant seasonal differences (24- to 159-fold) that were strongly correlated with temperature. According to our estimate, the N 2 O emission in the MSW predisposal stage amounts to 20% of that in the disposal stage in Beijing, making the predisposal stage a nontrivial source of waste-induced N 2 O emissions. Furthermore, the CO 2 and CH 4 emissions in the MSW predisposal account for 5% (maximum 10% in summer) of the total carbon contents in a Beijing's household food waste stream, which has significance in the assessment of MSW-related renewable energy potential and urban carbon cycles.

Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2013-07-01

The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

Application of strategies for sanitation management in wastewater treatment plants in order to control/reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Préndez, Margarita; Lara-González, Scarlette

2008-09-01

Greenhouse gases (GHG), basically methane (CH(4)), carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O), occur at atmospheric concentrations of ppbv to ppmv under natural conditions. GHG have long mean lifetimes and are an important factor for the mean temperature of the Earth. However, increasing anthropogenic emissions could produce a scenario of progressive and cumulative effects over time, causing a potential "global climate change". Biological degradation of the organic matter present in wastewater is considered one of the anthropogenic sources of GHG. In this study, GHG emissions for the period 1990-2027 were estimated considering the sanitation process and the official domestic wastewater treatment startup schedule approved for the Metropolitan Region (MR) of Santiago, Chile. The methodology considers selected models proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and some others published by different authors; these were modified according to national conditions and different sanitation and temporal scenarios. For the end of the modeled period (2027), results show emissions of about 65 Tg CO(2) equiv./year (as global warming potential), which represent around 50% of national emissions. These values could be reduced if certain sanitation management strategies were introduced in the environmental management by the sanitation company in charge of wastewater treatment.

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2010-01-01

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

The impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere - Part 2: Stratospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Jia, W.; Olsen, S. C.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Dubey, M. K.; Rockett, A. A.

2012-08-01

The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.

Greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty natural gas, hybrid, and conventional diesel on-road trucks during freight transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiros, David C.; Smith, Jeremy; Thiruvengadam, Arvind; Huai, Tao; Hu, Shaohua

2017-11-01

Heavy-duty on-road vehicles account for 70% of all freight transport and 20% of transportation-sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States. This study measured three prevalent GHG emissions - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) - from seven heavy-duty vehicles, fueled by diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG), and compliant to the MY 2007 or 2010 U.S. EPA emission standards, while operated over six routes used for freight movement in California. Total combined (tractor, trailer, and payload) weights were 68,000 ± 1000 lbs. for the seven vehicles. Using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) radiative forcing values for a 100-year time horizon, N2O emissions accounted for 2.6-8.3% of total tailpipe CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2-eq) for diesel vehicles equipped with Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, Diesel Particulate Filter, and Selective Catalytic Reduction system (DOC + DPF + SCR), and CH4 emissions accounted for 1.4-5.9% of CO2-eq emissions from the CNG-powered vehicle with a three-way catalyst (TWC). N2O emissions from diesel vehicles equipped with SCR (0.17-0.30 g/mi) were an order of magnitude higher than diesel vehicles without SCR (0.013-0.023 g/mi) during highway operation. For the vehicles selected in this test program, we measured 11-22% lower CO2-eq emissions from a hybrid compared to conventional diesel vehicles during transport over lower-speed routes of the freight transport system, but 20-27% higher CO2-eq emissions during higher-speed routes. Similarly, a CNG vehicle emitted up to 15% lower CO2-eq compared to conventional diesel vehicles over more neutral-grade highway routes, but emitted up to 12% greater CO2-eq emissions over routes with higher engine loads.

Challenges and opportunities for animal conservation from renewable energy development

Treesearch

T.A. Katzner; J.A. Johnson; D.M. Evans; T.W.J. Garner; M.E. Gompper; R. Altwegg; T.A. Branch; I.J. Gordon; N. Pettorelli

2013-01-01

Global climate change is among the greatest threats confronting both human and natural systems (IPCC, 2007). A substantial component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is from energy production, generated via the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, natural gas and refined petroleum. Given that reduction in global energy consumption is unlikely over the next...

Investigation of the N2O emission strength in the U. S. Corn Belt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Congsheng; Lee, Xuhui; Griffis, Timothy J.; Dlugokencky, Edward J.; Andrews, Arlyn E.

2017-09-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a high global warming potential and depletes stratospheric ozone. The U. S. Corn Belt plays an important role in the global anthropogenic N2O budget. To date, studies on local surface N2O emissions and the atmospheric N2O budget have commonly used Lagrangian models. In the present study, we used an Eulerian model - Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to investigate the relationships between N2O emissions in the Corn Belt and observed atmospheric N2O mixing ratios. We derived a simple equation to relate the emission strengths to atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, and used the derived equation and hourly atmospheric N2O measurements at the KCMP tall tower in Minnesota to constrain agricultural N2O emissions. The modeled spatial patterns of atmospheric N2O were evaluated against discrete observations at multiple tall towers in the NOAA flask network. After optimization of the surface flux, the model reproduced reasonably well the hourly N2O mixing ratios monitored at the KCMP tower. Agricultural N2O emissions in the EDGAR42 database needed to be scaled up by 19.0 to 28.1 fold to represent the true emissions in the Corn Belt for June 1-20, 2010 - a peak emission period. Optimized mean N2O emissions were 3.00-4.38, 1.52-2.08, 0.61-0.81 and 0.56-0.75 nmol m- 2 s- 1 for June 1-20, August 1-20, October 1-20 and December 1-20, 2010, respectively. The simulated spatial patterns of atmospheric N2O mixing ratios after optimization were in good agreement with the NOAA discrete observations during the strong emission peak in June. Such spatial patterns suggest that the underestimate of emissions using IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) inventory methodology is not dependent on tower measurement location.

Kyoto-Related Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emission Totals (1990 - 2009) (Version 2012) (Updated 01/16/2013)

DOE Data Explorer

Marland, Greg [Appalachian State University, Boone, NC (USA); Boden, Thomas A. [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN

2013-01-16

This table shows the total of CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel use and cement manufacture for those countries listed in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol and for those countries not listed in Annex B. In keeping with the convention of the IPCC methodology for calculating national greenhouse gas emissions, emissions from international bunker fuels (fuels used in international commerce) are not included in the country totals but are shown separately under the country group in which final fuel loading occurred. Note, that the list of countries in Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol differs from the list of countries in Annex I of the Framework Convention on Climate Change by the addition of Croatia, Liechtenstein, Monaco, and Slovenia and the removal of Belarus and Turkey. We have estimated emissions for 1990 and 1991 from the republics that were formerly part of the USSR and of Yugoslavia by taking total emissions from the USSR (and Yugoslavia) for 1990 and 1991 and distributing them among the new republics in the same ratio as emissions from those republics in 1992. Because of minor differences in the method of estimating the global total of emissions and the national totals of emissions, the sum of emissions from all countries produces a number that is less than the global total by about 2%. Consequently we have inflated the sum of emissions from all Annex B countries and the sum of emissions from all non-Annex B countries by about 2% (the value differs from year to year) so that the sum of the two values plus emissions from bunker fuels is equal to our best estimate of the global total of emissions.

Stratospheric ozone depletion due to nitrous oxide: influences of other gases

PubMed Central

Portmann, R. W.; Daniel, J. S.; Ravishankara, A. R.

2012-01-01

The effects of anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and the halocarbons on stratospheric ozone (O3) over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are isolated using a chemical model of the stratosphere. The future evolution of ozone will depend on each of these gases, with N2O and CO2 probably playing the dominant roles as halocarbons return towards pre-industrial levels. There are nonlinear interactions between these gases that preclude unambiguously separating their effect on ozone. For example, the CH4 increase during the twentieth century reduced the ozone losses owing to halocarbon increases, and the N2O chemical destruction of O3 is buffered by CO2 thermal effects in the middle stratosphere (by approx. 20% for the IPCC A1B/WMO A1 scenario over the time period 1900–2100). Nonetheless, N2O is expected to continue to be the largest anthropogenic emission of an O3-destroying compound in the foreseeable future. Reductions in anthropogenic N2O emissions provide a larger opportunity for reduction in future O3 depletion than any of the remaining uncontrolled halocarbon emissions. It is also shown that 1980 levels of O3 were affected by halocarbons, N2O, CO2 and CH4, and thus may not be a good choice of a benchmark of O3 recovery. PMID:22451111

Slowdown of N2O emissions from China's croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, F.; Shang, Z.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Tian, H.; Saikawa, E.; Zaehle, S.; Del Grosso, S. J.; Galloway, J. N.

2016-12-01

To feed the increasing population, China has experienced a rapid agricultural development over past decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumptions in croplands, but the magnitude, trend, and causes of the associated nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions has remain unclear. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of fertilizer consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few regional representativeness of the Nrate-flux relationships in China. Here we re-estimate China's N2O emissions from croplands using three different methods: flux upscaling technique, process-based models and atmospheric inversion, and also analyze the corresponding drivers using an attribution approach. The three methods produce similar estimates of N2O emissions in the range of 0.67 ± 0.08 to 0.62± 0.11 Tg nitrogen per year, which is 29% larger than the estimates by the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) that is adopted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the emission baseline and twofold larger than the latest Chinese national report submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but the revised trend slows down after 2005. Fertilizer N application per area is the dominant factor driving the increase in N2O emissions across most cropping regions from 1990 to 2004, but climate-induced change of emission factors has also controlled N2O flux from 2005 onwards. Our findings suggest that, as precipitation would increase in North China but decline in the South in future, EF will increasingly control China's agri. soil emissions of N2O, unless offset by larger reductions of fertilizer consumptions.

A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Nicholls, Zebedee R.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Allen, Myles R.

2017-06-01

Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics, and estimates of the social cost of carbon often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce typical global surface temperature and atmospheric CO2 responses displayed by more complex Earth system models (ESMs) under a range of emission scenarios, as well as an ability to sample the range of ESM response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) to explicitly represent the state dependence of the CO2 airborne fraction. Our adapted model (FAIR) reproduces the range of behaviour shown in full and intermediate complexity ESMs under several idealised carbon pulse and exponential concentration increase experiments. We find that the inclusion of a linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change substantially improves the representation of the response of the climate system to CO2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs.

Korea's transition to the IPCC : Introduction of BAT-based Integrated ACT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Daegyun; Yoo, Heungmin; Kim, Younglan

2017-04-01

Recently, environmental pollution concerns have been increased in Korea more than ever before. So, The Ministry of Environment and the National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER) in Korea has forged a policy that can effectively reduce the environmental pollutants emitted from each business sectors. This policy nicknamed the "Integrated Environmental Management Act" will be implemented from January 2017. It is to consolidate the management method of each environment media (such as water/atmosphere, etc.) and discharge facility into single authorization and/or permission system for entire installation. In particular, it is the environmental management system in according to the "Act on Integrated Management of Environmental Pollution Facilities" that encourages active participation of companies, grant customized emission permits by considering the ambient environmental condition as well as best available techniques, and review the permitted items periodically. Throughout this optimal management policy, we expect the minimization of the environmental effect by reducing the production and emission of pollutants. The integrated environmental management system is a scientific and advanced whole new management system and it is also a policy that considers the environment and human health effect in a synthetically, and minimizes the emission of pollutants by applying the best available techniques. In this presentation, we will talk about the Korea's transition stage to IPCC(integrated pollution prevention and control) and introduce the whole new Integrated Environmental Management system of Korea.

Accouting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulieu, J. J.; Deemer, B. R.; Harrison, J. A.; Nietch, C. T.; Waldo, S.

2016-12-01

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a `basis for future methodological development' due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions linked to the National Lakes Assessment.

Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. The research approaches include 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane emissions. To inform th

Cost-effectiveness of intensive psychiatric community care for high users of inpatient services.

PubMed

Rosenheck, R A; Neale, M S

1998-05-01

This 2-year experimental study evaluated the effectiveness and cost of 10 intensive psychiatric community care (IPCC) programs at Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers in the northeastern United States. High users of inpatient services were randomly assigned to either IPCC or standard Department of Veterans Affairs care at 6 general medical and surgical hospitals (n=271 vs 257) and 4 neuropsychiatric hospitals (n=183 vs 162). Patient interviews every 6 months and national computerized data were used to assess clinical outcomes, health service use, health care costs, and non-health care costs. There was only 1 significant clinical difference between groups across follow-up periods: IPCC patients at general medical and surgical sites had higher community living skills. However, at the final interview, IPCC patients at general medical and surgical sites showed significantly lower symptoms, higher functioning, and greater satisfaction with services. Treatment with IPCC significantly reduced hospital use only at neuropsychiatric sites (320 vs 513 days, P<.001). Total societal costs, including the cost of IPCC, were lower for IPCC at neuropsychiatric sites ($82,454 vs $116,651, P<.001), but greater at general medical and surgical sites ($51,537 vs $46,491, P<.01). When 2 sites that incompletely implemented the model were dropped from the analysis, costs at general medical and surgical sites were $38 lower for IPCC (P=.26). At acute care hospitals, IPCC treatment is associated with greater long-term clinical improvement and, when fully implemented, is cost-neutral. At long-stay hospitals treating older, less-functional patients, it is not associated with clinical or functional improvement but generates substantial cost savings. Intensive psychiatric community care thus has beneficial, but somewhat different, outcome profiles at different types of hospitals.

Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

PubMed

Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

2015-09-01

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

Chapter 3: Climate change and the relevance of historical forest conditions

Treesearch

H.D. Safford; M. North; M.D. Meyer

2012-01-01

Increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are modifying the Earth's climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea...

Sequestration of carbon in harvested wood products for the United States

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog

2008-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidelines for countries to report greenhouse gas removals by sinks and emissions from sources. These guidelines allow use of several accounting approaches when reporting the contribution of harvested wood products (HWP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Using extensions of...

Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Relative importance of thermal versus carbon dioxide induced warming from fossil-fuel combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Caldeira, K.

2015-12-01

The Earth is heated both when reduced carbon is oxidized to carbon dioxide and when outgoing longwave radiation is trapped by carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (CO2 greenhouse effect). The purpose of this study is to improve our understanding of time scales and relative magnitudes of climate forcing increase over time from pulse, continuous, and historical CO2 and thermal emissions. To estimate the amount of global warming that would be produced by thermal and CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, we calculate thermal emissions with thermal contents of fossil fuels and estimate CO2 emissions with emission factors from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. We then use a schematic climate model mimicking Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to investigate the climate forcing and the time-integrated climate forcing. We show that, considered globally, direct thermal forcing from fossil fuel combustion is about 1.71% the radiative forcing from CO2 that has accumulated in the atmosphere from past fossil fuel combustion. When a new power plant comes on line, the radiative forcing from the accumulation of released CO2 exceeds the thermal emissions from the power plant in less than half a year (and about 3 months for coal plants). Due to the long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, CO2 radiative forcing greatly overwhelms direct thermal forcing on longer time scales. Ultimately, the cumulative radiative forcing from the CO2 exceeds the direct thermal forcing by a factor of ~100,000.

Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

2015-12-01

Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolf, Julie; Asrar, Ghassem R.; West, Tristram O.

Background: Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the US, such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. This may be due to outdated information used to develop these emissions factors. In this study, we update information for cattle and swine by region, based on reported recent changes in animal body mass, feed quality and quantity, milk productivity, and management of animals and manure. We then use this updated information to calculatemore » new livestock methane emissions factors for enteric fermentation in cattle, and for manure management in cattle and swine.« less

Direct nitrous oxide emissions from rapeseed in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuß, Roland; Andres, Monique; Hegewald, Hannes; Kesenheimer, Katharina; Köbke, Sarah; Räbiger, Thomas; Suarez, Teresa; Stichnothe, Heinz; Flessa, Heiner

2014-05-01

The production of first generation biofuels has increased over the last decade in Germany. However, there is a strong public and scientific debate concerning ecological impact and sustainability of biofuel production. The EU Renewables Directive requires biofuels to save 35 % of GHG emissions compared to fossil fuels. Starting in 2017, 50 % mitigation of GHG emissions must be achieved. This presents challenges for production of biofuels from rapeseed, which is one of the major renewable resources used for fuel production. Field emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and GHG emissions during production of fertilizers contribute strongest to the GHG balance of rapeseed biofuel. Thus, the most promising GHG mitigation option is the optimization of nitrogen fertilization. Since 2012, field trials are conducted on five German research farms to quantify direct GHG emissions. The sites were selected to represent the main rapeseed production regions in Germany as well as climatic regions and soil types. Randomized plot designs were established, which allow monitoring (using manual chambers) impact of fertilization intensity on direct emissions and yield of the typical crop sequence (winter rape - winter wheat - winter barley). The effect of substituting mineral fertilizer with biogas digestate with and without addition of a nitrification inhibitor is also studied. Here we present results from the first cropping season. In 2013, annual direct N2O emissions as well as yield normalized N2O emissions from rape were low. This can be explained with the weather conditions as 2013 was characterized by a cold and long winter with snow until mid spring. As a result, emissions were smaller than predicted by the IPCC emission factors or by the Global Nitrous Oxide Calculator (GNOC). However, emissions still depend on nitrogen input.

Methane emission estimation from landfills in Korea (1978-2004): quantitative assessment of a new approach.

PubMed

Kim, Hyun-Sun; Yi, Seung-Muk

2009-01-01

Quantifying methane emission from landfills is important to evaluating measures for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To quantify GHG emissions and identify sensitive parameters for their measurement, a new assessment approach consisting of six different scenarios was developed using Tier 1 (mass balance method) and Tier 2 (the first-order decay method) methodologies for GHG estimation from landfills, suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Methane emissions using Tier 1 correspond to trends in disposed waste amount, whereas emissions from Tier 2 gradually increase as disposed waste decomposes over time. The results indicate that the amount of disposed waste and the decay rate for anaerobic decomposition were decisive parameters for emission estimation using Tier 1 and Tier 2. As for the different scenarios, methane emissions were highest under Scope 1 (scenarios I and II), in which all landfills in Korea were regarded as one landfill. Methane emissions under scenarios III, IV, and V, which separated the dissimilated fraction of degradable organic carbon (DOC(F)) by waste type and/or revised the methane correction factor (MCF) by waste layer, were underestimated compared with scenarios II and III. This indicates that the methodology of scenario I, which has been used in most previous studies, may lead to an overestimation of methane emissions. Additionally, separate DOC(F) and revised MCF were shown to be important parameters for methane emission estimation from landfills, and revised MCF by waste layer played an important role in emission variations. Therefore, more precise information on each landfill and careful determination of parameter values and characteristics of disposed waste in Korea should be used to accurately estimate methane emissions from landfills.

Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2012-12-01

Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a narrow range that does not necessarily signal low uncertainty but rather a reliance on similar animal statistics and emission factors. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects 2000-2030 growth rates of livestock for most developing countries at 2% to >3% annually. However, the assumption of rapidly rising meat consumption is not supported by current trends nor by resource availability. For example, increased meat consumption in China and other developing countries is poultry and pork that do not affect CH4 emissions, suggesting that the rapid growth projected for all animals, boosting growth in CH4 emission, will not occur. From a resource standpoint, large increases in cattle, sheep and goat populations, especially for African countries (~60% by 2030), are not supportable on arid grazing lands that require very low stocking rates and semi-nomadic management. Increases projected for African animal populations would require either that about 2/3 more animals are grazed on increasingly drier lands or that all non-forested areas become grazing lands. Similar to solid waste, future methane emission from ruminant animals is likely to grow modestly although animals are not a likely candidate for CH4 mitigation due to their dispersed distribution throughout widely varying agricultural systems under very local management.

CMIP6 Citation Services and the Data Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre for AR6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, Martina; Lautenschlager, Michael

2017-04-01

As a result of the experiences from CMIP5 the two services contributed by DKRZ to the CMIP research infrastructure have been improved for CMIP6: the Citation Services and the Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC, http://ipcc-data.org). 1. Data Citation Services: Within CMIP5 it took a couple of years before the data was citable with their DataCite DOIs. The DataCite DOI registration by the WDC Climate at DKRZ (World Data Center Climate at the Climate Computing Center) requires data transfer and long-term archival at DKRZ according to DDC's quality standards. Based on a request from WGCM (Working Group on Climate Models) an additional early citation possibility for the evolving CMIP6 data was added to the citation service (http://cmip6cite.wdc-climate.de). 2. IPCC DDC Services: WDC Climate has been hosting the IPCC DDC's Reference Data Archive for the climate model output underlying the IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) since the Second Assessment Report in 1995. One task of the DDC is the support of the IPCC Working Groups (WGs) and their authors. The WG support was not sufficient for AR5 resulting in WG I setting up and maintaining their own CMIP5 data repository hosting a data subset. The DDC will open DKRZ's CMIP data pool as an additional DDC service for the IPCC authors using a synergy with the interests of the national climate community. Within the PICO the Citation and the IPCC DDC services will be presented from a user's perspective. The connections to and integration into the infrastructure for CMIP6 (see https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/wip/) will be explained.

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a methodology for estimating methane emissions from flooded lands, but the methodology was published as an appendix to be used as a ‘basis for future methodological development’ due to a lack of data. Since the 2006 Guidelines were published there has been a 6-fold increase in the number of peer reviewed papers published on the topic including reports from reservoirs in India, China, Africa, and Russia. Furthermore, several countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, and Finland, have developed country specific methodologies for including flooded lands methane emissions in their National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This presentation will include a review of the literature on flooded land methane emissions and approaches that have been used to upscale emissions for national inventories. We will also present ongoing research in the United States to develop a country specific methodology. In the U.S., research approaches include: 1) an effort to develop predictive relationships between methane emissions and reservoir characteristics that are available in national databases, such as reservoir size and drainage area, and 2) a national-scale probabilistic survey of reservoir methane em

A probabilistic approach to emissions from transportation sector in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.

2010-12-01

Future emission estimates are necessary for understanding climate change, designing national and international strategies for air quality control and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so. Most current emission projection models are deterministic; in other words, there is only single answer for each scenario. As a result, uncertainties have not been included in the estimation of climate forcing or other environmental effects, but it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections. We explore uncertainties of emission projections from transportation sector in the coming decades by sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. These projections are based on a technology driven model: the Speciated Pollutants Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend, which responds to socioeconomic conditions in different economic and mitigation scenarios. The model contains detail about technology stock, including consumption growth rates, retirement rates, timing of emission standards, deterioration rates and transition rates from normal vehicles to vehicles with extremely high emission factors (termed “superemitters”). However, understanding of these parameters, as well as relationships with socioeconomic conditions, is uncertain. We project emissions from transportation sectors under four different IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). Due to the later implementation of advanced emission standards, Africa has the highest annual growth rate (1.2-3.1%) from 2010 to 2050. Superemitters begin producing more than 50% of global emissions around year 2020. We estimate uncertainties from the relationships between technological change and socioeconomic conditions and examine their impact on future emissions. Sensitivities to parameters governing retirement rates are highest, causing changes in global emissions from-26% to +55% on average from 2010 to 2050. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to examine how these uncertainties will affect total emissions if any input parameter that has inherent the uncertainties is substituted by a range of values-probability distribution and varies at the same time; the 95% confidence interval of global emission annual growth rate is -1.9% to +0.2% per year.

Study on highway transportation greenhouse effect external cost estimation in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Chunchao; Pan, Fengming

2017-03-01

This paper focuses on estimating highway transportation greenhouse gas emission volume and greenhouse gas external cost in China. At first, composition and characteristics of greenhouse gases were analysed about highway transportation emissions. Secondly, an improved model of emission volume was presented on basis of highway transportation energy consumption, which may be calculated by virtue of main affecting factors such as the annual average operation miles of each type of the motor vehicles and the unit consumption level. the model of emission volume was constructed which considered not only the availability of energy consumption statistics of highway transportation but also the greenhouse gas emission factors of various fuel types issued by IPCC. Finally, the external cost estimation model was established about highway transportation greenhouse gas emission which combined emission volume with the unit external cost of CO2 emissions. An example was executed to confirm presented model which ranged from 2011 to 2015 Year in China. The calculated result shows that the highway transportation total emission volume and greenhouse gas external cost are growing up, but the unit turnover external cost is steadily declining. On the whole overall, the situation is still grim about highway transportation greenhouse gas emission, and the green transportation strategy should be put into effect as soon as possible.

Methane emissions from different coastal wetlands in New England, US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, F.; Tang, J.; Kroeger, K. D.; Gonneea, M. E.

2017-12-01

According to the IPCC, methane have 25 times warming effect than CO2, and natural wetlands contribute 20-39 % to the global emission of methane. Although most of these methane was from inland wetlands, there was still large uncertain in the methane emissions in coastal wetlands. In the past three years, we have investigated methane emissions in coastal wetlands in MA, USA. Contrary to previous assumptions, we have observed relative larger methane flux in some salt marshes than freshwater wetlands. We further detect the methane source, and found that plant activities played an important role in methane flux, for example, the growth of S. aterniflora, the dominate plants in salt marsh, could enhance methane emission, while in an fresh water wetland that was dominated by cattail, plant activity oxided methane and reduced total flux. Phragmite, an invasive plant at brackish marsh, have the highest methane flux among all coastal wetland investigated. This study indicated that coastal wetland could still emit relatively high amount of methane even under high water salinity condiations, and plant activity played an important role in methane flux, and this role was highly species-specific.

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet disintegration and very large sea level rise (RFC5). Limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce the risks for RFCs 1 and 2 from High to the Moderate-to-High transition.

High emissions of greenhouse gases from grasslands on peat and other organic soils.

PubMed

Tiemeyer, Bärbel; Albiac Borraz, Elisa; Augustin, Jürgen; Bechtold, Michel; Beetz, Sascha; Beyer, Colja; Drösler, Matthias; Ebli, Martin; Eickenscheidt, Tim; Fiedler, Sabine; Förster, Christoph; Freibauer, Annette; Giebels, Michael; Glatzel, Stephan; Heinichen, Jan; Hoffmann, Mathias; Höper, Heinrich; Jurasinski, Gerald; Leiber-Sauheitl, Katharina; Peichl-Brak, Mandy; Roßkopf, Niko; Sommer, Michael; Zeitz, Jutta

2016-12-01

Drainage has turned peatlands from a carbon sink into one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) sources from cultivated soils. We analyzed a unique data set (12 peatlands, 48 sites and 122 annual budgets) of mainly unpublished GHG emissions from grasslands on bog and fen peat as well as other soils rich in soil organic carbon (SOC) in Germany. Emissions and environmental variables were measured with identical methods. Site-averaged GHG budgets were surprisingly variable (29.2 ± 17.4 t CO 2 -eq. ha -1  yr -1 ) and partially higher than all published data and the IPCC default emission factors for GHG inventories. Generally, CO 2 (27.7 ± 17.3 t CO 2  ha -1  yr -1 ) dominated the GHG budget. Nitrous oxide (2.3 ± 2.4 kg N 2 O-N ha -1  yr -1 ) and methane emissions (30.8 ± 69.8 kg CH 4 -C ha -1  yr -1 ) were lower than expected except for CH 4 emissions from nutrient-poor acidic sites. At single peatlands, CO 2 emissions clearly increased with deeper mean water table depth (WTD), but there was no general dependency of CO 2 on WTD for the complete data set. Thus, regionalization of CO 2 emissions by WTD only will remain uncertain. WTD dynamics explained some of the differences between peatlands as sites which became very dry during summer showed lower emissions. We introduced the aerated nitrogen stock (N air ) as a variable combining soil nitrogen stocks with WTD. CO 2 increased with N air across peatlands. Soils with comparatively low SOC concentrations showed as high CO 2 emissions as true peat soils because N air was similar. N 2 O emissions were controlled by the WTD dynamics and the nitrogen content of the topsoil. CH 4 emissions can be well described by WTD and ponding duration during summer. Our results can help both to improve GHG emission reporting and to prioritize and plan emission reduction measures for peat and similar soils at different scales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Translating Scientific Conclusions about Risk for Public Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, T. E.

2009-12-01

Climate change has been aptly described as a problem of risk management, yet the scientific community has not been successful in helping the public engage in risk management effectively. Behavioral science studies demonstrate that, while the public generally accepts the reality of anthropogenic climate change today, the immanence of impacts and scale of risk and opportunities for effective mitigation are poorly understood. Helping the public overcome these misperceptions and engage in decision-making about climate risks is, perhaps, the climate communication community’s most urgent priority. Scientific writing and graphic conventions are poorly suited for communicating with non-scientists. Using examples from the IPCC 4th Assessment, this session will demonstrate how specific conventions in science writing and graph making have obscured critical information about climate risks. The session will further demonstrate how reformatting the graphical information can create an exceptionally clear picture of where humanity stands and the implications of various emissions pathways for the future. Attendees will appreciate how presentations of science results can be tailored to answer the public’s questions more effectively by highlighting useful information in accurate, yet accessible ways. Decision-makers and the public urgently need information about climate impact risks and the consequences of various emissions pathways. Yet written and graphic descriptions from the IPCC and other assessment agencies burden non-scientists with multiple temperature baselines (e.g., pre-Industrial, mid-20th century, late 20th century, today), two confusingly similar measures for the key human contribution to atmospheric composition (CO2 and CO2-eq), and multiple ways of describing probability and certainty. The public is further confounded by inconsistent graphic conventions in scientific figures, including inconsistent color-coding, labeling, axis orientation, and treatment of uncertainty. Scientific figures tend to either include too many different messages or over-generalize, and neither approach helps non-scientists identify useful metrics and apply them to decision-making. This session will briefly illustrate each of these problematic scientific conventions and present a more effective translation of key IPCC figures in a new graphic format that help non-scientists appreciate our situation and opportunities. This translation has received positive reviews from informal learning institutions and will be useful to the broader science communication community.

Reconciling sectoral abatement strategies with global climate targets: the case of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet.

PubMed

Pauliuk, Stefan; Dhaniati, Ni Made A; Müller, Daniel B

2012-01-03

The IPCC Forth Assessment Report postulates that global warming can be limited to 2 °C by deploying technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialized in the coming decades. However, neither specific technological pathways nor internationally binding reduction targets for different sectors or countries have been established yet. Using the passenger car stock in China as example we compute direct CO(2) emissions until 2050 depending on population, car utilization, and fuel efficiency and compare them to benchmarks derived by assuming even contribution of all sectors and a unitary global per capita emission quota. Compared to present car utilization in industrialized countries, massive deployment of prototypes of fuel efficient cars could reduce emissions by about 45%, and moderately lower car use could contribute with another 33%. Still, emissions remain about five times higher than the benchmark for the 2 °C global warming target. Therefore an extended analysis, including in particular low-carbon fuels and the impact of urban and transport planning on annual distance traveled and car ownership, should be considered. A cross-sectoral comparison could reveal whether other sectors could bear an overproportional reduction quota instead. The proposed model offers direct interfaces to material industries, fuel production, and scrap vehicle supply.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Great Lakes

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural and cultural resources. Although climate change was once believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions of greenhouse gases have significantly contributed to recent...

Continuous atmospheric monitoring of the injected CO2 behavior over geological storage sites using flux stations: latest technologies and resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burba, George; Madsen, Rodney; Feese, Kristin

2014-05-01

Flux stations have been widely used to monitor emission rates of CO2 from various ecosystems for climate research for over 30 years [1]. The stations provide accurate and continuous measurements of CO2 emissions with high temporal resolution. Time scales range from 20 times per second for gas concentrations, to 15-minute, hourly, daily, and multi-year periods. The emissions are measured from the upwind area ranging from thousands of square meters to multiple square kilometers, depending on the measurement height. The stations can nearly instantaneously detect rapid changes in emissions due to weather events, as well as changes caused by variations in human-triggered events (pressure leaks, control releases, etc.). Stations can also detect any slow changes related to seasonal dynamics and human-triggered low-frequency processes (leakage diffusion, etc.). In the past, station configuration, data collection and processing were highly-customized, site-specific and greatly dependent on "school-of-thought" practiced by a particular research group. In the last 3-5 years, due to significant efforts of global and regional CO2 monitoring networks (e.g., FluxNet, Ameriflux, Carbo-Europe, ICOS, etc.) and technological developments, the flux station methodology became fairly standardized and processing protocols became quite uniform [1]. A majority of current stations compute CO2 emission rates using the eddy covariance method, one of the most direct and defensible micrometeorological techniques [1]. Presently, over 600 such flux stations are in operation in over 120 countries, using permanent and mobile towers or moving platforms (e.g., automobiles, helicopters, and airplanes). Atmospheric monitoring of emission rates using such stations is now recognized as an effective method in regulatory and industrial applications, including carbon storage [2-8]. Emerging projects utilize flux stations to continuously monitor large areas before and after the injections, to locate and quantify leakages from the subsurface, to improve storage efficiency, and for other storage characterizations [5-8]. In this presentation, the latest regulatory and methodological updates are provided regarding atmospheric monitoring of the injected CO2 behavior using flux stations. These include 2013 improvements in methodology, as well as the latest literature, including regulatory documents for using the method and step-by-step instructions on implementing it in the field. Updates also include 2013 development of a fully automated remote unattended flux station capable of processing data on-the-go to continuously output final CO2 emission rates in a similar manner as a standard weather station outputs weather parameters. References: [1] Burba G. Eddy Covariance Method for Scientific, Industrial, Agricultural and Regulatory Applications. LI-COR Biosciences; 2013. [2] International Energy Agency. Quantification techniques for CO2 leakage. IEA-GHG; 2012. [3] US Department of Energy. Best Practices for Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting of CO2 Stored in Deep Geologic Formations. US DOE; 2012. [4] Liu G. (Ed.). Greenhouse Gases: Capturing, Utilization and Reduction. Intech; 2012. [5] Finley R. et al. An Assessment of Geological Carbon Sequestration Options in the Illinois Basin - Phase III. DOE-MGSC; DE-FC26-05NT42588; 2012. [6] LI-COR Biosciences. Surface Monitoring for Geologic Carbon Sequestration. LI-COR, 980-11916, 2011. [7] Eggleston H., et al. (Eds). IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC NGGI P, WMO/UNEP; 2006-2011. [8] Burba G., Madsen R., Feese K. Eddy Covariance Method for CO2 Emission Measurements in CCUS Applications: Principles, Instrumentation and Software. Energy Procedia, 40C: 329-336; 2013.

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2012-01-01

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Effect of irrigation, nitrogen application, and a nitrification inhibitor on nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane emissions from an olive (Olea europaea L.) orchard.

PubMed

Maris, S C; Teira-Esmatges, M R; Arbonés, A; Rufat, J

2015-12-15

Drip irrigation combined with nitrogen (N) fertigation is applied in order to save water and improve nutrient efficiency. Nitrification inhibitors reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A field study was conducted to compare the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) associated with the application of N fertiliser through fertigation (0 and 50kgNha(-1)), and 50kgNha(-1)+nitrification inhibitor in a high tree density Arbequina olive orchard. Spanish Arbequina is the most suited variety for super intensive olive groves. This system allows reducing production costs and increases crop yield. Moreover its oil has excellent sensorial features. Subsurface drip irrigation markedly reduced N2O and N2O+N2 emissions compared with surface drip irrigation. Fertiliser application significantly increased N2O+N2, but not N2O emissions. Denitrification was the main source of N2O. The N2O losses (calculated as emission factor) ranging from -0.03 to 0.14% of the N applied, were lower than the IPCC (2007) values. The N2O+N2 losses were the largest, equivalent to 1.80% of the N applied, from the 50kgNha(-1)+drip irrigation treatment which resulted in water filled pore space >60% most of the time (high moisture). Nitrogen fertilisation significantly reduced CO2 emissions in 2011, but only for the subsurface drip irrigation strategies in 2012. The olive orchard acted as a net CH4 sink for all the treatments. Applying a nitrification inhibitor (DMPP), the cumulative N2O and N2O+N2 emissions were significantly reduced with respect to the control. The DMPP also inhibited CO2 emissions and significantly increased CH4 oxidation. Considering global warming potential, greenhouse gas intensity, cumulative N2O emissions and oil production, it can be concluded that applying DMPP with 50kgNha(-1)+drip irrigation treatment was the best option combining productivity with keeping greenhouse gas emissions under control. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What is the value of biomass remote sensing data for blue carbon inventories?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrd, K. B.; Simard, M.; Crooks, S.; Windham-Myers, L.

2015-12-01

The U.S. is testing approaches for accounting for carbon emissions and removals associated with wetland management according to 2013 IPCC Wetlands Supplement guidelines. Quality of reporting is measured from low (Tier 1) to high (Tier 3) depending upon data availability and analytical capacity. The use of satellite remote sensing data to derive carbon stocks and flux provides a practical approach for moving beyond IPCC Tier 1, the global default factor approach, to support Tier 2 or Tier 3 quantification of carbon emissions or removals. We are determining the "price of precision," or the extent to which improved satellite data will continue to increase the accuracy of "blue carbon" accounting. Tidal marsh biomass values are needed to quantify aboveground carbon stocks and stock changes, and to run process-based models of carbon accumulation. Maps of tidal marsh biomass have been produced from high resolution commercial and moderate resolution Landsat satellite data with relatively low error [percent normalized RMSE (%RMSE) from 7 to 14%]. Recently for a brackish marsh in Suisun Bay, California, we used Landsat 8 data to produce a biomass map that applied the Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI) (ρNIR*0.2 - ρR)/(ρNIR*0.2+ρR) to fully vegetated pixels and the Simple Ratio index (ρRed/ρGreen) to pixels with a mix of vegetation and water. Overall RMSE was 208 g/m2, while %RMSE = 13.7%. Also, preliminary use of airborne and spaceborne RADAR data in coastal Louisiana produced a marsh biomass map with 30% error. The integration of RADAR and LiDAR with optical remote sensing data has the potential to further reduce error in biomass estimation. In 2017, nations will report back to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change on their experience in applying the Wetlands Supplement guidelines. These remote sensing efforts will mark an important step toward quantifying human impacts to wetlands within the global carbon cycle.

Towards an inventory of methane emissions from manure management that is responsive to changes on Canadian farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanderZaag, A. C.; MacDonald, J. D.; Evans, L.; Vergé, X. P. C.; Desjardins, R. L.

2013-09-01

Methane emissions from manure management represent an important mitigation opportunity, yet emission quantification methods remain crude and do not contain adequate detail to capture changes in agricultural practices that may influence emissions. Using the Canadian emission inventory methodology as an example, this letter explores three key aspects for improving emission quantification: (i) obtaining emission measurements to improve and validate emission model estimates, (ii) obtaining more useful activity data, and (iii) developing a methane emission model that uses the available farm management activity data. In Canada, national surveys to collect manure management data have been inconsistent and not designed to provide quantitative data. Thus, the inventory has not been able to accurately capture changes in management systems even between manure stored as solid versus liquid. To address this, we re-analyzed four farm management surveys from the past decade and quantified the significant change in manure management which can be linked to the annual agricultural survey to create a continuous time series. In the dairy industry of one province, for example, the percentage of manure stored as liquid increased by 300% between 1991 and 2006, which greatly affects the methane emission estimates. Methane emissions are greatest from liquid manure, but vary by an order of magnitude depending on how the liquid manure is managed. Even if more complete activity data are collected on manure storage systems, default Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance does not adequately capture the impacts of management decisions to reflect variation among farms and regions in inventory calculations. We propose a model that stays within the IPCC framework but would be more responsive to farm management by generating a matrix of methane conversion factors (MCFs) that account for key factors known to affect methane emissions: temperature, retention time and inoculum. This MCF matrix would be populated using a mechanistic emission model verified with on-farm emission measurements. Implementation of these MCF values will require re-analysis of farm surveys to quantify liquid manure emptying frequency and timing, and will rely on the continued collection of this activity data in the future. For model development and validation, emission measurement campaigns will be needed on representative farms over at least one full year, or manure management cycle (whichever is longer). The proposed approach described in this letter is long-term, but is required to establish baseline data for emissions from manure management systems. With these improvements, the manure management emission inventory will become more responsive to the changing practices on Canadian livestock farms.

Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2013-03-01

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO2-eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation.

Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.

PubMed

Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

2008-12-01

Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

PubMed

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gas emissions from vegetation fires in Southern Africa.

PubMed

Scholes, R J

1995-01-01

Methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic carbon, and aerosols emitted as a result of the deliberate or accidental burning of natural vegetation constitute a large component of the greenhouse gas emissions of many African countries, but the data needed for calculating these emissions by the IPCC methodology is sparse and subject to estimation errors. An improved procedure for estimating emissions from fires in southern Africa has been developed. The proposed procedure involves reclassifying existing vegetation maps into one of eleven broad, functional vegetation classes. Fuel loads are calculated within each 0.5 × 0.5° cell based on empirical relationships to climate data for each class. The fractional area of each class that burns is estimated by using daily low-resolution satellite fire detection, which is calibrated against a subsample of pre- and post-fire high-resolution satellite images. The emission factors that relate the quantity of gas released to the mass of fuel burned are based on recent field campaigns in Africa and are related to combustion efficiency, which is in turn related to the fuel mix. The emissions are summed over the 1989 fire season for Africa south of the equator. The estimated emissions from vegetation burning in the subcontinent are 0.5 Tg CH4, 14.9 Tg CO, 1.05 Tg NOx, and 1.08 Tg of particles smaller than 2.5µm. The 324 Tg CO2 emitted is expected to be reabsorbed in subsequent years. These estimates are smaller than previous estimates.

Soil pH as the chief modifier for regional nitrous oxide emissions: New evidence and implications for global estimates and mitigation.

PubMed

Wang, Yajing; Guo, Jingheng; Vogt, Rolf David; Mulder, Jan; Wang, Jingguo; Zhang, Xiaoshan

2018-02-01

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas that also plays the primary role in stratospheric ozone depletion. The use of nitrogen fertilizers is known as the major reason for atmospheric N 2 O increase. Empirical bottom-up models therefore estimate agricultural N 2 O inventories using N loading as the sole predictor, disregarding the regional heterogeneities in soil inherent response to external N loading. Several environmental factors have been found to influence the response in soil N 2 O emission to N fertilization, but their interdependence and relative importance have not been addressed properly. Here, we show that soil pH is the chief factor explaining regional disparities in N 2 O emission, using a global meta-analysis of 1,104 field measurements. The emission factor (EF) of N 2 O increases significantly (p < .001) with soil pH decrease. The default EF value of 1.0%, according to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for agricultural soils, occurs at soil pH 6.76. Moreover, changes in EF with N fertilization (i.e. ΔEF) is also negatively correlated (p < .001) with soil pH. This indicates that N 2 O emission in acidic soils is more sensitive to changing N fertilization than that in alkaline soils. Incorporating our findings into bottom-up models has significant consequences for regional and global N 2 O emission inventories and reconciling them with those from top-down models. Moreover, our results allow region-specific development of tailor-made N 2 O mitigation measures in agriculture. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

2015-05-01

Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.

Science Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruning, Claus; Ko, Malcolm; Lee, David; Miake-Lye, Richard

2006-01-01

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. The questions may take the form of what are the environmental benefits that would result if goals are achieved, what are the consequences for other aviation pollutants, and whether tools exist to evaluate the trade-off. In addition to this documents, presentations will be made at the meeting to illustrate current developing views on these subjects. To facilitate studies on trade-offs among environmental impacts from aviation, one must start with scientific investigations that quantify the impacts. A second step is to select representative metrics with policy relevance so that diverse impacts can be put on the same common scale. The IPCC Special Report on Aviation (IPCC, 1999) serves as an excellent example of the first step. The report was produced by IPCC's Working Group 1, whose mandate is to provide the assessment of the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. An example of the second step is Witt et al. (2005), a study commissioned by the Environment DG of the European Commission. Within the context of CAEP, step 1 is aligned with the responsibilities of the Research Focal Points, while step 2 is more related to activities of FESG. These steps are likely to be iterative as proposed policy options will raise new science questions, and new science will expand or limit policy options. Past experiences show that clearly defined policy-related scientific needs will help focus the scientific community to marshal their intellects to provide the needed answers.

First In Vivo Measurements of Methane Emissions from Ruminant Livestock Enteric Fermentation in Mexico Using Respiration Chambers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelan-Ortega, O. A.; Ku-Vera, J. C.; Molina, L. T.; Pedraza-Beltrán, P. E.; Canul-Solis, J. R.; Piñeiro-Vázquez, A.; Hernández-Pineda, G.; Benaouda, M.

2015-12-01

Until recently there were no facilities in Mexico to measure in vivo methane (CH4) emission by livestock. Inventories were calculated using emission factors from the IPCC, so the uncertainty in calculation is high. In 2014 the first laboratory equipped to measure CH4 started operations at the Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán. The second laboratory was built at the Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México and it began operations in June 2015. The first laboratory consists of two open-circuit respiration chambers, which are currently used to measure CH4 emissions by cattle in Mexico's tropical regions. Chamber dimensions are: 3.0 x 2.14 x 1.44 m (DxHxW). Air exiting the chambers is drawn by a mass flowmeter (Flowkit 500) at a rate of 500 L/min. The air sample is passed through a multiplexer and then through a chemical desiccant before entering the methane infrared analyzer (MA-10). All the instruments were fabricated by Sable Systems International, Las Vegas, USA. The average CH4 emission factor for Nelore bulls of 350 kg live weight fed with a tropical grass was 117.3 L/day and it increased to 198.6 L/day when 3 kg of concentrate feed were supplemented. For adult crossbred cows also fed with a tropical grass CH4 emission ranged from 92.7 to 137.3 L/day. The second laboratory consist of a respiration chamber of the head box type. It consists of a head box of 1.05 x 0.8 x 1.80 m (WxDxH) made of 3.5 x 3.5 cm stainless steel angle, and on the bottom, top, sides, back and front of the head box, 0.6 cm clear acrylic sheeting was used to provide comfortable vision to the animal, and a metabolic cage of 1.08 x 2.92 x 1.8 m (WxDxH) made of iron tubes with steel sheeting floor adapted for feces and urine collection. The methane analyzer and the mass flowmeter were of the same model as in the first laboratory. Once calibrated, in vivo measurements were performed using high yielding adult Holstein cows with an average live weight of 573 ±71 kg and milk yield of 30kg/day. The cows were fed maize silage, alfalfa hay and 4 kg concentrate feed. The average CH4 production was 484 ± 132 L/day. Emission factors obtained from both laboratories differed substantially from those used previously for inventories calculation in Mexico. IPCC factors are higher than those observed in our work particularly for cattle in the tropical regions of the country.

High-power Laser Welding of Thick Steel-aluminum Dissimilar Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahdo, Rabi; Springer, André; Pfeifer, Ronny; Kaierle, Stefan; Overmeyer, Ludger

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a worldwide reduction of CO2-emissions is indispensable to avoid global warming. Besides the automotive sector, lightweight construction is also of high interest for the maritime industry in order to minimize CO2-emissions. Using aluminum, the weight of ships can be reduced, ensuring lower fuel consumption. Therefore, hybrid joints of steel and aluminum are of great interest to the maritime industry. In order to provide an efficient lap joining process, high-power laser welding of thick steel plates (S355, t = 5 mm) and aluminum plates (EN AW-6082, t = 8 mm) is investigated. As the weld seam quality greatly depends on the amount of intermetallic phases within the joint, optimized process parameters and control are crucial. Using high-power laser welding, a tensile strength of 10 kN was achieved. Based on metallographic analysis, hardness tests, and tensile tests the potential of this joining method is presented.

Variable carbon losses from recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands.

PubMed

Konecny, Kristina; Ballhorn, Uwe; Navratil, Peter; Jubanski, Juilson; Page, Susan E; Tansey, Kevin; Hooijer, Aljosja; Vernimmen, Ronald; Siegert, Florian

2016-04-01

Tropical peatland fires play a significant role in the context of global warming through emissions of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. However, the state of knowledge on carbon loss from these fires is still poorly developed with few studies reporting the associated mass of peat consumed. Furthermore, spatial and temporal variations in burn depth have not been previously quantified. This study presents the first spatially explicit investigation of fire-driven tropical peat loss and its variability. An extensive airborne Light Detection and Ranging data set was used to develop a prefire peat surface modelling methodology, enabling the spatially differentiated quantification of burned area depth over the entire burned area. We observe a strong interdependence between burned area depth, fire frequency and distance to drainage canals. For the first time, we show that relative burned area depth decreases over the first four fire events and is constant thereafter. Based on our results, we revise existing peat and carbon loss estimates for recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands. We suggest values for the dry mass of peat fuel consumed that are 206 t ha(-1) for initial fires, reducing to 115 t ha(-1) for second, 69 t ha(-1) for third and 23 t ha(-1) for successive fires, which are 58-7% of the current IPCC Tier 1 default value for all fires. In our study area, this results in carbon losses of 114, 64, 38 and 13 t C ha(-1) for first to fourth fires, respectively. Furthermore, we show that with increasing proximity to drainage canals both burned area depth and the probability of recurrent fires increase and present equations explaining burned area depth as a function of distance to drainage canal. This improved knowledge enables a more accurate approach to emissions accounting and will support IPCC Tier 2 reporting of fire emissions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions.

PubMed

Millar, Richard J; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-13

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or 'effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO 2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO 2 -only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO 2 -induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO 2 warming in some ensemble members.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

PubMed Central

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-01-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2018-05-01

The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Nitrogen fertilization challenges the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels

DOE PAGES

Ruan, Leilei; Bhardwaj, Ajay K.; Hamilton, Stephen K.; ...

2016-06-01

Cellulosic biofuels are intended to improve future energy and climate security. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is commonly recommended to stimulate yields but can increase losses of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2O) and other forms of reactive N, including nitrate. We measured soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching along a switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) high resolution N-fertilizer gradient for three years post-establishment. Results revealed an exponential increase in annual N2O emissions that each year became stronger (R 2 > 0.9, P < 0.001) and deviated further from the fixed percentage assumed for IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. Concomitantly, switchgrass yieldsmore » became less responsive each year to N fertilizer. Nitrate leaching (and calculated indirect N2O emissions) also increased exponentially in response to N inputs, but neither methane (CH4) uptake nor soil organic carbon changed detectably. Overall, N fertilizer inputs at rates greater than crop need curtailed the climate benefit of ethanol production almost two-fold, from a maximum mitigation capacity of–5.71 ± 0.22 Mg CO 2e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 56 kgNha –1 to only –2.97 ± 0.18 MgCO 2e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 196 kgNha –1. In conclusion, minimizing N fertilizer use will be an important strategy for fully realizing the climate benefits of cellulosic biofuel production.« less

Nitrogen fertilization challenges the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruan, Leilei; Bhardwaj, Ajay K.; Hamilton, Stephen K.

Cellulosic biofuels are intended to improve future energy and climate security. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is commonly recommended to stimulate yields but can increase losses of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2O) and other forms of reactive N, including nitrate. We measured soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching along a switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum) high resolution N-fertilizer gradient for three years post-establishment. Results revealed an exponential increase in annual N2O emissions that each year became stronger (R 2 > 0.9, P < 0.001) and deviated further from the fixed percentage assumed for IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. Concomitantly, switchgrass yieldsmore » became less responsive each year to N fertilizer. Nitrate leaching (and calculated indirect N2O emissions) also increased exponentially in response to N inputs, but neither methane (CH4) uptake nor soil organic carbon changed detectably. Overall, N fertilizer inputs at rates greater than crop need curtailed the climate benefit of ethanol production almost two-fold, from a maximum mitigation capacity of–5.71 ± 0.22 Mg CO 2e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 56 kgNha –1 to only –2.97 ± 0.18 MgCO 2e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 196 kgNha –1. In conclusion, minimizing N fertilizer use will be an important strategy for fully realizing the climate benefits of cellulosic biofuel production.« less

Greenhouse gas emissions from dairy open lot and manure stockpile in northern China: A case study.

PubMed

Ding, Luyu; Lu, Qikun; Xie, Lina; Liu, Jie; Cao, Wei; Shi, Zhengxiang; Li, Baoming; Wang, Chaoyuan; Zhang, Guoqiang; Ren, Shixi

2016-03-01

The open lots and manure stockpiles of dairy farm are major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in typical dairy cow housing and manure management system in China. GHG (CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O) emissions from the ground level of brick-paved open lots and uncovered manure stockpiles were estimated according to the field measurements of a typical dairy farm in Beijing by closed chambers in four consecutive seasons. Location variation and manure removal strategy impacts were assessed on GHG emissions from the open lots. Estimated CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from the ground level of the open lots were 137.5±64.7 kg hd(-1) yr(-1), 0.45±0.21 kg hd(-1) yr(-1) and 0.13±0.08 kg hd(-1) yr(-1), respectively. There were remarkable location variations of GHG emissions from different zones (cubicle zone vs. aisle zone) of the open lot. However, the emissions from the whole open lot were less affected by the locations. After manure removal, lower CH(4) but higher N(2)O emitted from the open lot. Estimated CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O emissions from stockpile with a stacking height of 55±12 cm were 858.9±375.8 kg hd(-1) yr(-1), 8.5±5.4 kg hd(-1) yr(-1) and 2.3±1.1 kg hd(-1) yr(-1), respectively. In situ storage duration, which estimated by manure volatile solid contents (VS), would affect GHG emissions from stockpiles. Much higher N(2)O was emitted from stockpiles in summer due to longer manure storage. This study deals with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from open lots and stockpiles. It's an increasing area of concern in some livestock producing countries. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology is commonly used for estimation of national GHG emission inventories. There is a shortage of on-farm information to evaluate the accuracy of these equations and default emission factors. This work provides valuable information for improving accounting practices within China or for similar manure management practice in other countries.

Hotspots of gross emissions from the land use sector: patterns, uncertainties, and leading emission sources for the period 2000-2005 in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Rufino, Mariana C.; Herold, Martin; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Herrero, Mario; Ogle, Stephen; Li, Changsheng; Poulter, Benjamin; Verchot, Louis; Martius, Christopher; Stuiver, John; de Bruin, Sytze

2016-07-01

According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must be cut by 41-72 % below 2010 levels by 2050 for a likely chance of containing the global mean temperature increase to 2 °C. The AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) contributes roughly a quarter ( ˜ 10-12 Pg CO2e yr-1) of the net anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation, fire, wood harvesting, and agricultural emissions including croplands, paddy rice, and livestock. In spite of the importance of this sector, it is unclear where the regions with hotspots of AFOLU emissions are and how uncertain these emissions are. Here we present a novel, spatially comparable dataset containing annual mean estimates of gross AFOLU emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), associated uncertainties, and leading emission sources, in a spatially disaggregated manner (0.5°) for the tropics for the period 2000-2005. Our data highlight the following: (i) the existence of AFOLU emissions hotspots on all continents, with particular importance of evergreen rainforest deforestation in Central and South America, fire in dry forests in Africa, and both peatland emissions and agriculture in Asia; (ii) a predominant contribution of forests and CO2 to the total AFOLU emissions (69 %) and to their uncertainties (98 %); (iii) higher gross fluxes from forests, which coincide with higher uncertainties, making agricultural hotspots appealing for effective mitigation action; and (iv) a lower contribution of non-CO2 agricultural emissions to the total gross emissions (ca. 25 %), with livestock (15.5 %) and rice (7 %) leading the emissions. Gross AFOLU tropical emissions of 8.0 (5.5-12.2) were in the range of other databases (8.4 and 8.0 Pg CO2e yr-1 in FAOSTAT and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) respectively), but we offer a spatially detailed benchmark for monitoring progress in reducing emissions from the land sector in the tropics. The location of the AFOLU hotspots of emissions and data on their associated uncertainties will assist national policy makers, investors, and other decision-makers who seek to understand the mitigation potential of the AFOLU sector.

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Comparison of Field Measurements to Methane Emissions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Due to both technical and economic limitations, estimates of methane emissions from landfills rely primarily on models. While models are easy to implement, there is uncertainty due to the use of parameters that are difficult to validate. The objective of this research was to compare modeled emissions using several greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reporting protocols including: (1) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); (2) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (EPA GHGRP); (3) California Air Resources Board (CARB); (4) Solid Waste Industry for Climate Solutions (SWICS); and (5) an industry model from the Dutch waste company Afvalzorg, with measured data collected over 3 calendar years from a young landfill with no gas collection system. By working with whole landfill measurements of fugitive methane emissions and methane oxidation, the collection efficiency could be set to zero, thus eliminating one source of parameter uncertainty. The models consistently overestimated annual methane emissions by a factor ranging from 4 – 32.Varying input parameters over reasonable ranges reduced this range to 1.3 - 8. Waste age at the studied landfill was less than four years and the results suggest the need for measurements at additional landfills to evaluate the accuracy of the tested models to young landfills. This is a submission to a peer reviewed journal. The paper discusses landfill emission measurements and models for a new la

Indirect chemical effects of methane on climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, Jos; Crutzen, Paul J.

1992-01-01

METHANE concentrations in the atmosphere have increased from about 0.75 to 1.7 p.p.m.v. since pre-industrial times1,2. The current annual rate of increase of about 0.8% yr-1 (ref. 2) is due to increases in industrial and agricultural emissions. This increase in atmospheric methane concentrations not only influences the climate directly, but also indirectly through chemical reactions. Here we show that the climate effects of methane's atmospheric chemistry have previously been overestimated, notably by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)3, largely owing to neglect of the height dependence of certain atmospheric radiative processes. Using available estimates of fossil-fuel-related leaks of methane, our results show that switching from coal and oil to natural gas as an energy source would reduce climate warming. A significant fraction of methane emissions cannot, however, be accounted for by known sources; should leakages from gas production and distribution be underestimated for some countries, then it might be unwise to switch to using natural gas.

N2O and CO2 emissions following repeated application of organic and mineral N fertiliser from a vegetable crop rotation.

PubMed

De Rosa, Daniele; Rowlings, David W; Biala, Johannes; Scheer, Clemens; Basso, Bruno; Grace, Peter R

2018-05-11

Accounting for nitrogen (N) release from organic amendments (OA) can reduce the use of synthetic N-fertiliser, sustain crop production, and potentially reduce soil borne greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. However, it is difficult to assess the GHG mitigation potential for OA as a substitute of N-fertiliser over the long term due to only part of the organic N added to soil is being released in the first year after application. High-resolution nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions monitored from a horticultural crop rotation over 2.5 years from conventional urea application rates were compared to treatments receiving an annual application of raw and composted chicken manure combined with conventional and reduced N-fertiliser rates. The repeated application of composted manure did not increase annual N 2 O emissions while the application of raw manure resulted in N 2 O emissions up to 35.2 times higher than the zero N fertiliser treatment and up to 4.7 times higher than conventional N-fertiliser rate due to an increase in C and N availability following the repeated application of raw OA. The main factor driving N 2 O emissions was the incorporation of organic material accompanied by high soil moisture while the application of synthetic N-fertiliser induced only short-term N 2 O emission pulse. The average annual N 2 O emission factor calculated accounting for the total N applied including OA was equal to 0.27 ± 0.17%, 3.7 times lower than the IPCC default value. Accounting for the estimated N release from OA only enabled a more realistic N 2 O emission factor to be defined for organically amended field that was equal to 0.48 ± 0.3%. This study demonstrated that accounting for the N released from repeated application of composted rather than raw manure can be a viable pathway to reduce N 2 O emissions and maintain soil fertility. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modeling the effects of different N fertilizer rates on N2O emissions and nitrate leaching from arable soils in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Berger, S.; Tenhunen, J. D.; Gebauer, G.; Kiese, R.

2012-12-01

Process-based biogeochemical models can be used to predict the impact of various agricultural management practices on plant nitrogen use efficiency and nitrogen losses to the environment such as greenhouse gas emissions and nitrate leaching by analyzing the interactions between management practices, primary drivers such as climate, soil properties, crop types, etc., and biogeochemical reactions. In this study we applied the Landscape-DNDC model, which combines and uniforms functions of the agricultural-DNDC and the Forest-DNDC for simulation of C and N turnover, GHG emissions, nitrate leaching, and plant growth for a Korean arable field cultivated with radish (Raphanus sativus L.). The annual average temperature is app. 8.5°C and the annual precipitation is app. 1,500 mm. According to farmers practice the study field received a basal fertilizer application of app. 200 kg N ha-1 before setting up four fertilizer treatments i.e. additionally 50, 150, 250 and 350 kg N ha-1. All N treatment plots were tilled a week after application of specific N fertilizer in order to make row and interrow. Just before radish seeding rows were covered with black plastic mulch which was removed after harvest. In spite the widespread usage of black mulch in Korea or even Asia; so far biogeochemical models do not consider impacts of mulch on soil environmental conditions and soil biogeochemistry. Based on field measurements we adjusted input information and used only half of the annual precipitation and the maximum temperature for simulation of row conditions, whereas the actual weather data were used for the interrow simulations. Simulated N2O emissions agreed well with measurements; however peak emissions after fertilization were slightly underestimated in row and interrow. Annual N2O emissions of the fertilizer treatments increased with increasing fertilization rates from around 1.5 to 3 kg N ha-1 in the row and lower emissions of app. 1.5 kg N ha-1 (for all N treatments) in the interrow resulting in total direct emissions of about 1.5 to 2.3 kg N ha-1 yr-1 (area weighted average of row and interrow). Compared with the IPCC approach (EF = 0.01) these values are rather low which can be explained by high rates of simulated and measured nitrate leaching across all N treatments (row: 214 - 240 kg N ha-1 yr-1; interrow: 259 - 263 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Seasonal dynamic and magnitude of measured and simulated NO3 concentrations in soil water in different soil depths agreed well which give further evidence for the simulated nitrate leaching. Using the IPCC EF of 0.0075, nitrate leaching results in indirect N2O emissions of additionally 1.8 kg N ha-1 yr-1. Only slight increase of measured and simulated yields (4 to 5.2 t DW ha-1) with higher rates of N fertilization indicate that actual farmer practices can be improved and optimizing agricultural management considering the specific climatic and soil conditions has a high potential to reduce environmental impacts of crop cultivations in the study area of the Haean catchment.

Temporal integration of soil N2O fluxes: validation of IPNOA station automatic chamber prototype.

PubMed

Laville, P; Bosco, S; Volpi, I; Virgili, G; Neri, S; Continanza, D; Bonari, E

2017-09-04

The assessment of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from agricultural soil surfaces still poses a major challenge to the scientific community. The evaluations of integrated soil fluxes of N 2 O are difficult owing to their lower emissions when compared with CO 2 . These emissions are also sporadic as environmental conditions act as a limiting factor. A station prototype was developed to integrate annual N 2 O and CO 2 emissions using an automatic chamber technique and infrared spectrometers within the LIFE project (IPNOA: LIFE11 ENV/IT/00032). It was installed from June 2014 to October 2015 in an experimental maize field in Tuscany. The detection limits for the fluxes were evaluated up to 1.6 ng N-N 2 O m 2  s -1 and 0.3 μg C-CO 2  m 2  s -1 . A cross-comparison carried out in September 2015 with the "mobile IPNOA prototype"; a high-sensibility transportable instrument already validated provided evidence of very similar values and highlighted flux assessment limitations according to the gas analyzers used. The permanent monitoring device showed that temporal distribution of N 2 O fluxes can be very large and discontinuous over short periods of less than 10 days and that N 2 O fluxes were below the detection limit of the instrumentation during approximately 70% of the measurement time. The N 2 O emission factors were estimated to 1.9% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015, within the range of IPCC assessments.

Carbon Balance and Contribution of Harvested Wood Products in China Based on the Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

PubMed

Ji, Chunyi; Cao, Wenbin; Chen, Yong; Yang, Hongqiang

2016-11-12

The carbon sequestration of harvested wood products (HWP) plays an important role in climate mitigation. Accounting the carbon contribution of national HWP carbon pools has been listed as one of the key topics for negotiation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. On the basis of the revised Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) (IPCC), this study assessed the accounting of carbon stock and emissions from the HWP pool in China and then analyzed its balance and contribution to carbon mitigation from 1960 to 2014. Research results showed that the accumulated carbon stock in China's HWP carbon pool increased from 130 Teragrams Carbon (TgC) in 1960 to 705.6 TgC in 2014. The annual increment in the carbon stock rose from 3.2 TgC in 1960 to 45.2 TgC in 2014. The category of solid wood products accounted for approximately 95% of the annual amount. The reduction in carbon emissions was approximately twelve times that of the emissions from the HWP producing and processing stage during the last decade. Furthermore, the amount of carbon stock and emission reduction increased from 23 TgC in 1960 to 76.1 TgC in 2014. The annual contribution of HWP could compensate for approximately 2.9% of the national carbon dioxide emissions in China.

Carbon Balance and Contribution of Harvested Wood Products in China Based on the Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Ji, Chunyi; Cao, Wenbin; Chen, Yong; Yang, Hongqiang

2016-01-01

The carbon sequestration of harvested wood products (HWP) plays an important role in climate mitigation. Accounting the carbon contribution of national HWP carbon pools has been listed as one of the key topics for negotiation in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. On the basis of the revised Production Approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) (IPCC), this study assessed the accounting of carbon stock and emissions from the HWP pool in China and then analyzed its balance and contribution to carbon mitigation from 1960 to 2014. Research results showed that the accumulated carbon stock in China’s HWP carbon pool increased from 130 Teragrams Carbon (TgC) in 1960 to 705.6 TgC in 2014. The annual increment in the carbon stock rose from 3.2 TgC in 1960 to 45.2 TgC in 2014. The category of solid wood products accounted for approximately 95% of the annual amount. The reduction in carbon emissions was approximately twelve times that of the emissions from the HWP producing and processing stage during the last decade. Furthermore, the amount of carbon stock and emission reduction increased from 23 TgC in 1960 to 76.1 TgC in 2014. The annual contribution of HWP could compensate for approximately 2.9% of the national carbon dioxide emissions in China. PMID:27845760

Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

2014-12-01

Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in March 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 7591-7607.

Global Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Hydrogeological Controls on Regional-Scale Indirect Nitrous Oxide Emission Factors for Rivers.

PubMed

Cooper, Richard J; Wexler, Sarah K; Adams, Christopher A; Hiscock, Kevin M

2017-09-19

Indirect nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions from rivers are currently derived using poorly constrained default IPCC emission factors (EF 5r ) which yield unreliable flux estimates. Here, we demonstrate how hydrogeological conditions can be used to develop more refined regional-scale EF 5r estimates required for compiling accurate national greenhouse gas inventories. Focusing on three UK river catchments with contrasting bedrock and superficial geologies, N 2 O and nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations were analyzed in 651 river water samples collected from 2011 to 2013. Unconfined Cretaceous Chalk bedrock regions yielded the highest median N 2 O-N concentration (3.0 μg L -1 ), EF 5r (0.00036), and N 2 O-N flux (10.8 kg ha -1 a -1 ). Conversely, regions of bedrock confined by glacial deposits yielded significantly lower median N 2 O-N concentration (0.8 μg L -1 ), EF 5r (0.00016), and N 2 O-N flux (2.6 kg ha -1 a -1 ), regardless of bedrock type. Bedrock permeability is an important control in regions where groundwater is unconfined, with a high N 2 O yield from high permeability chalk contrasting with significantly lower median N 2 O-N concentration (0.7 μg L -1 ), EF 5r (0.00020), and N 2 O-N flux (2.0 kg ha -1 a -1 ) on lower permeability unconfined Jurassic mudstone. The evidence presented here demonstrates EF 5r can be differentiated by hydrogeological conditions and thus provide a valuable proxy for generating improved regional-scale N 2 O emission estimates.

Can Advances in Science and Technology Prevent Global Warming? A Critical Review of Limitations and Challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huesemann, Michael H.

The most stringent emission scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would result in the stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) at concentrations of approximately 550 ppm which would produce a global temperature increase of at least 2 C by 2100. Given the large uncertainties regarding the potential risks associated with this degree of global warming, it would be more prudent to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at or below current levels which, in turn, would require a greater than 20-fold reduction (i.e., ?95%) in per capita carbon emissions in industrialized nations within the next 50 to 100more » years. Using the Kaya equation as a conceptual framework, this paper examines whether CO2 mitigation approaches such as energy efficiency improvements, carbon sequestration, and the development of carbon-free energy sources would be sufficient to bring about the required reduction in per capita carbon emissions without creating unforeseen negative impacts elsewhere. In terms of energy efficiency, large improvements (?5-fold) are in principle possible given aggressive investments in R&D and if market imperfections such as corporate subsidies are removed. However, energy efficiency improvements per se will not result in a reduction in carbon emissions if, as predicted by the IPCC, the size of the global economy has expanded 12-26 fold by 2100. Terrestrial carbon sequestration via reforestation and improved agricultural soil management has many environmental advantages but has only limited CO2 mitigation potential because the global terrestrial carbon sink (ca. 200 Gt C) is small relative to the size of fossil fuel deposits (?4000 Gt C). By contrast, very large amounts of CO2 can potentially be removed from the atmosphere via sequestration in geologic formations and oceans, but carbon storage is not permanent and is likely to create many unpredictable environmental consequences. Renewable solar energy can in theory provide large amounts of carbon-free power. However, biomass and hydroelectric energy can only be marginally expanded and large-scale solar energy installations (i.e., wind, photovoltaics, and direct thermal) are likely to have significant negative environmental impacts. Expansion of nuclear energy is highly unlikely due to concerns over reactor safety, radioactive waste management, weapons proliferation, and cost. In view of the serious limitations and liabilities of many proposed CO2 mitigation approaches it appears that there remain only few no-regrets options such as drastic energy efficiency improvements, extensive terrestrial carbon sequestration, and cautious expansion of renewable energy generation. These promising CO2 mitigation technologies have the potential to bring about the required 20-fold reduction in per capita carbon emission only if population and economic growth are halted without delay. Thus, addressing the problem of global warming requires not only technological research and development but also a reexamination of core values that mistakenly equate material consumption and economic growth to happiness and well-being.« less

On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streets, D. G.; Bond, T. C.; Lee, T.; Jang, C.

2004-12-01

This paper presents the first model-based forecasts of future emissions of the primary carbonaceous aerosols, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The forecasts build on a recent 1996 inventory of emissions that contains detailed fuel, technology, sector, and world-region specifications. The forecasts are driven by four IPCC scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, and B2, out to 2030 and 2050, incorporating not only changing patterns of fuel use but also technology development. Emissions from both energy generation and open biomass burning are included. We project that global BC emissions will decline from 8.0 Tg in 1996 to 5.3-7.3 Tg by 2030 and to 4.3-6.1 Tg by 2050, across the range of scenarios. We project that OC emissions will decline from 34 Tg in 1996 to 24-30 Tg by 2030 and to 21-28 Tg by 2050. The introduction of advanced technology with lower emission rates, as well as a shift away from the use of traditional solid fuels in the residential sector, more than offsets the increased combustion of fossil fuels worldwide. Environmental pressures and a diminishing demand for new agricultural land lead to a slow decline in the amount of open biomass burning. Although emissions of BC and OC are generally expected to decline around the world, some regions, particularly South America, northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, show increasing emissions in several scenarios. Particularly difficult to control are BC emissions from the transport sector, which increase under most scenarios. We expect that the BC/OC emission ratio for energy sources will rise from 0.5 to as much as 0.8, signifying a shift toward net warming of the climate system due to carbonaceous aerosols. When biomass burning is included, however, the BC/OC emission ratios are for the most part invariant across scenarios at about 0.2.

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

Assessment of the Contribution of Poultry and Pig Production to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Korea Over the Last 10 Years (2005 through 2014).

PubMed

Boontiam, Waewaree; Shin, Yongjin; Choi, Hong Lim; Kumari, Priyanka

2016-12-01

The goal of this study was to estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), namely methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from poultry and pig production in South Korea over the last 10 years (2005 through 2014). The calculations of GHG emissions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Over the study period, the CH 4 emission from manure management decreased in layer chickens, nursery to finishing pigs and gestating to lactating sows, but there was a gradual increase in CH 4 emission from broiler chickens and male breeding pigs. Both sows and nursery to finishing pigs were associated with greater emissions from enteric fermentation than the boars, especially in 2009. Layer chickens produced lower direct and indirect N 2 O emissions from 2009 to 2014, whereas the average direct and indirect N 2 O emissions from manure management for broiler chickens were 12.48 and 4.93 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr, respectively. Annual direct and indirect N 2 O emissions for broiler chickens tended to decrease in 2014. Average CO 2 emission from direct on-farm energy uses for broiler and layer chickens were 46.62 and 136.56 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr, respectively. For pig sectors, the N 2 O emission from direct and indirect sources gradually increased, but they decreased for breeding pigs. Carbon dioxide emission from direct on-farm energy uses reached a maximum of 53.93 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr in 2009, but this total gradually declined in 2010 and 2011. For boars, the greatest CO 2 emission occurred in 2012 and was 9.44 Gg CO 2 -eq/yr. Indirect N 2 O emission was the largest component of GHG emissions in broilers. In layer chickens, the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions was CO 2 from direct on-farm energy uses. For pig production, the largest component of GHG emissions was CH 4 from manure management, followed by CO 2 emission from direct on-farm energy use and CH 4 enteric fermentation emission, which accounted for 8.47, 2.85, and 2.82 Gg-CO 2 /yr, respectively. The greatest GHG emission intensity occurred in female breeding sows relative to boars. Overall, it is an important issue for the poultry and pig industry of South Korea to reduce GHG emissions with the effective approaches for the sustainability of agricultural practices.

Assessment of the Contribution of Poultry and Pig Production to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in South Korea Over the Last 10 Years (2005 through 2014)

PubMed Central

Boontiam, Waewaree; Shin, Yongjin; Choi, Hong Lim; Kumari, Priyanka

2016-01-01

The goal of this study was to estimate the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), namely methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) from poultry and pig production in South Korea over the last 10 years (2005 through 2014). The calculations of GHG emissions were based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. Over the study period, the CH4 emission from manure management decreased in layer chickens, nursery to finishing pigs and gestating to lactating sows, but there was a gradual increase in CH4 emission from broiler chickens and male breeding pigs. Both sows and nursery to finishing pigs were associated with greater emissions from enteric fermentation than the boars, especially in 2009. Layer chickens produced lower direct and indirect N2O emissions from 2009 to 2014, whereas the average direct and indirect N2O emissions from manure management for broiler chickens were 12.48 and 4.93 Gg CO2-eq/yr, respectively. Annual direct and indirect N2O emissions for broiler chickens tended to decrease in 2014. Average CO2 emission from direct on-farm energy uses for broiler and layer chickens were 46.62 and 136.56 Gg CO2-eq/yr, respectively. For pig sectors, the N2O emission from direct and indirect sources gradually increased, but they decreased for breeding pigs. Carbon dioxide emission from direct on-farm energy uses reached a maximum of 53.93 Gg CO2-eq/yr in 2009, but this total gradually declined in 2010 and 2011. For boars, the greatest CO2 emission occurred in 2012 and was 9.44 Gg CO2-eq/yr. Indirect N2O emission was the largest component of GHG emissions in broilers. In layer chickens, the largest contributing factor to GHG emissions was CO2 from direct on-farm energy uses. For pig production, the largest component of GHG emissions was CH4 from manure management, followed by CO2 emission from direct on-farm energy use and CH4 enteric fermentation emission, which accounted for 8.47, 2.85, and 2.82 Gg-CO2/yr, respectively. The greatest GHG emission intensity occurred in female breeding sows relative to boars. Overall, it is an important issue for the poultry and pig industry of South Korea to reduce GHG emissions with the effective approaches for the sustainability of agricultural practices. PMID:26954125

The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, Marcia

2016-11-01

To assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).

Effect of Ocean Acidification on Organic and Inorganic Speciation of Trace Metals.

PubMed

Stockdale, Anthony; Tipping, Edward; Lofts, Stephen; Mortimer, Robert J G

2016-02-16

Rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are causing acidification of the oceans. This results in changes to the concentrations of key chemical species such as hydroxide, carbonate and bicarbonate ions. These changes will affect the distribution of different forms of trace metals. Using IPCC data for pCO2 and pH under four future emissions scenarios (to the year 2100) we use a chemical speciation model to predict changes in the distribution of organic and inorganic forms of trace metals. Under a scenario where emissions peak after the year 2100, predicted free ion Al, Fe, Cu, and Pb concentrations increase by factors of up to approximately 21, 2.4, 1.5, and 2.0 respectively. Concentrations of organically complexed metal typically have a lower sensitivity to ocean acidification induced changes. Concentrations of organically complexed Mn, Cu, Zn, and Cd fall by up to 10%, while those of organically complexed Fe, Co, and Ni rise by up to 14%. Although modest, these changes may have significance for the biological availability of metals given the close adaptation of marine microorganisms to their environment.

Seasonal Response of Overland Flow and Sediment Loading to Climate and Land Use Land Cover Change in the Apalachicola River, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovenga, P. A.; Wang, D.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Located in Florida's panhandle, the Apalachicola River is the southernmost reach of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin. Streamflow and sediment drains to Apalachicola Bay within the Northern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a direct influence on the ecology of the region, in particular seagrass and oyster production. This study examines the seasonal response of overland flow and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use land cover (LULC) change. A hydrologic model using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily discharge and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (circa 2100) to understand how parameters respond over a seasonal time frame to changes in climate only, LULC only, and coupled climate / LULC. These physically-based models incorporate digital elevation model (DEM), LULC, soil maps, climate data, and management controls. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to create stochastic temperature and precipitation inputs from four Global Climate Models (GCM), each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios for A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios represent potential future emissions resulting from a range driving forces, e.g. social, economic, environmental, and technologic. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results from this study can be used to further understand climate and LULC implications to the Apalachicola Bay and surrounding region as well as similar fluvial estuaries while providing tools to better guide management and mitigation practices.

Different approaches to assess the environmental performance of a cow manure biogas plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrellas, Marta; Burgos, Laura; Tey, Laura; Noguerol, Joan; Riau, Victor; Palatsi, Jordi; Antón, Assumpció; Flotats, Xavier; Bonmatí, August

2018-03-01

In intensive livestock production areas, farmers must apply manure management systems to comply with governmental regulations. Biogas plants, as a source of renewable energy, have the potential to reduce environmental impacts comparing with other manure management practices. Nevertheless, manure processing at biogas plants also incurs in non-desired gas emissions that should be considered. At present, available emission calculation methods cover partially emissions produced at a biogas plant, with the subsequent difficulty in the preparation of life cycle inventories. The objective of this study is to characterise gaseous emissions: ammonia (NH3-N), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2Oindirect, and N2Odirect) and hydrogen sulphide (H2S) from the anaerobic co-digestion of cow manure by using different approaches for preparing gaseous emission inventories, and to compare the different methodologies used. The chosen scenario for the study is a biogas plant located next to a dairy farm in the North of Catalonia, Spain. Emissions were calculated by two methods: field measurements and estimation, following international guidelines. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines were adapted to estimate emissions for the specific situation according to Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 approaches. Total air emissions at the biogas plant were calculated from the emissions produced at the three main manure storage facilities on the plant: influent storage, liquid fraction storage, and the solid fraction storage of the digestate. Results showed that most of the emissions were produced in the liquid fraction storage. Comparing measured emissions with estimated emissions, NH3, CH4, N2Oindirect and H2S total emission results were in the same order of magnitude for both methodologies, while, N2Odirect total measured emissions were one order of magnitude higher than the estimates. A Monte Carlo analysis was carried out to examine the uncertainties of emissions determined from experimental data, providing probability distribution functions. Four emission inventories were developed with the different methodologies used. Estimation methods proved to be a useful tool to determine emissions when field sampling is not possible. Nevertheless, it was not possible to establish which methodology is more reliable. Therefore, more measurements at different biogas plants should be evaluated to validate the methodologies more precisely.

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krassovski, M.; Boden, T.

2012-04-01

Fossil-Fuel C02 Emissions Database and Exploration System Misha Krassovski and Tom Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) quantifies the release of carbon from fossil-fuel use and cement production each year at global, regional, and national spatial scales. These estimates are vital to climate change research given the strong evidence suggesting fossil-fuel emissions are responsible for unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. The CDIAC fossil-fuel emissions time series are based largely on annual energy statistics published for all nations by the United Nations (UN). Publications containing historical energy statistics make it possible to estimate fossil-fuel CO2 emissions back to 1751 before the Industrial Revolution. From these core fossil-fuel CO2 emission time series, CDIAC has developed a number of additional data products to satisfy modeling needs and to address other questions aimed at improving our understanding of the global carbon cycle budget. For example, CDIAC also produces a time series of gridded fossil-fuel CO2 emission estimates and isotopic (e.g., C13) emissions estimates. The gridded data are generated using the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011) and provide monthly and annual estimates for 1751-2008 at 1° latitude by 1° longitude resolution. These gridded emission estimates are being used in the latest IPCC Scientific Assessment (AR4). Isotopic estimates are possible thanks to detailed information for individual nations regarding the carbon content of select fuels (e.g., the carbon signature of natural gas from Russia). CDIAC has recently developed a relational database to house these baseline emissions estimates and associated derived products and a web-based interface to help users worldwide query these data holdings. Users can identify, explore and download desired CDIAC fossil-fuel CO2 emissions data. This presentation introduces the architecture and design of the new relational database and web interface, summarizes the present state and functionality of the Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions Database and Exploration System, and highlights future plans for expansion of the relational database and interface.

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions by changing N fertiliser use from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) to urea based formulations.

PubMed

Harty, M A; Forrestal, P J; Watson, C J; McGeough, K L; Carolan, R; Elliot, C; Krol, D; Laughlin, R J; Richards, K G; Lanigan, G J

2016-09-01

The accelerating use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilisers, to meet the world's growing food demand, is the primary driver for increased atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O). The IPCC default emission factor (EF) for N2O from soils is 1% of the N applied, irrespective of its form. However, N2O emissions tend to be higher from nitrate-containing fertilisers e.g. calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) compared to urea, particularly in regions, which have mild, wet climates and high organic matter soils. Urea can be an inefficient N source due to NH3 volatilisation, but nitrogen stabilisers (urease and nitrification inhibitors) can improve its efficacy. This study evaluated the impact of switching fertiliser formulation from calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN) to urea-based products, as a potential mitigation strategy to reduce N2O emissions at six temperate grassland sites on the island of Ireland. The surface applied formulations included CAN, urea and urea with the urease inhibitor N-(n-butyl) thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT) and/or the nitrification inhibitor dicyandiamide (DCD). Results showed that N2O emissions were significantly affected by fertiliser formulation, soil type and climatic conditions. The direct N2O emission factor (EF) from CAN averaged 1.49% overall sites, but was highly variable, ranging from 0.58% to 3.81. Amending urea with NBPT, to reduce ammonia volatilisation, resulted in an average EF of 0.40% (ranging from 0.21 to 0.69%)-compared to an average EF of 0.25% for urea (ranging from 0.1 to 0.49%), with both fertilisers significantly lower and less variable than CAN. Cumulative N2O emissions from urea amended with both NBPT and DCD were not significantly different from background levels. Switching from CAN to stabilised urea formulations was found to be an effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions, particularly in wet, temperate grassland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

An Improved Approach to Estimate Methane Emissions from Coal Mining in China.

PubMed

Zhu, Tao; Bian, Wenjing; Zhang, Shuqing; Di, Pingkuan; Nie, Baisheng

2017-11-07

China, the largest coal producer in the world, is responsible for over 50% of the total global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from coal mining. However, the current emission inventory of CH4 from coal mining has large uncertainties because of the lack of localized emission factors (EFs). In this study, province-level CH4 EFs from coal mining in China were developed based on the data analysis of coal production and corresponding discharged CH4 emissions from 787 coal mines distributed in 25 provinces with different geological and operation conditions. Results show that the spatial distribution of CH 4 EFs is highly variable with values as high as 36 m3/t and as low as 0.74 m3/t. Based on newly developed CH 4 EFs and activity data, an inventory of the province-level CH4 emissions was built for 2005-2010. Results reveal that the total CH 4 emissions in China increased from 11.5 Tg in 2005 to 16.0 Tg in 2010. By constructing a gray forecasting model for CH 4 EFs and a regression model for activity, the province-level CH 4 emissions from coal mining in China are forecasted for the years of 2011-2020. The estimates are compared with other published inventories. Our results have a reasonable agreement with USEPA's inventory and are lower by a factor of 1-2 than those estimated using the IPCC default EFs. This study could help guide CH 4 mitigation policies and practices in China.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Urban Wastewater Treatment Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturchio, N. C.; Bellucci, F.; Gonzalez-Meler, M. A.; Heraty, L.; Kozak, J. A.

2010-12-01

Wastewater treatment plants are considered the seventh highest contributor of greenhouse gases (GHG) to the atmosphere. For instance, USEPA recently reported (http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads10/US-GHG-Inventory-2010_Chapter8-Waste.pdf) that U.S. wastewater treatment released 24.3 Tg CO2e (i.e. CO2 GHG equivalents) via CH4 and 4.9 Tg CO2e via N20 during 2008. Emissions of GHG from wastewater treatment sources are often modeled using algorithms that rely on surrogates such as five-day Biological or Chemical Oxygen Demand [B(C)OD5] for CH4 and protein content of diets for N2O. Unfortunately, empirical validation of these models using field data is lacking. To fill this gap, we measured annual CH4 and N20 emissions from three wastewater treatment plants in the Chicago region that differ in size and design. Plants ranged from serving 0.17 to 2.3 million people, treating from 27 to 751 millions of gallons of wastewater per day, and having BOD5 from 101 to 220 mg/L. Primary settling tanks, exhausts, and aeration basins were the main sources of CH4 emissions, whereas N2O was mainly emitted by aeration basins at the three plants investigated. During 2009, per capita emissions for CH4 and N2O (for every thousand people) ranged from 61 to 1130 kg/yr and from 12 to 226 Kg/yr, respectively. These wide variations were in part due to chemistry of influent waters and plant design. We found that IPCC and USEPA algorithms were good predictors of CH4 emissions but they largely underestimated N20 emissions. Despite the differences in plant design and per capita emissions, we found that all three plants have a similar CH4:N2O flux ratio. If this flux ratio proves to be a general characteristic of wastewater treatment plants, it could provide a more accurate alternative to current models for estimation of N2O emissions.

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

Selection of emission factor standards for estimating emissions from diesel construction equipment in building construction in the Australian context.

PubMed

Zhang, Guomin; Sandanayake, Malindu; Setunge, Sujeeva; Li, Chunqing; Fang, Jun

2017-02-01

Emissions from equipment usage and transportation at the construction stage are classified as the direct emissions which include both greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-GHG emissions due to partial combustion of fuel. Unavailability of a reliable and complete inventory restricts an accurate emission evaluation on construction work. The study attempts to review emission factor standards readily available worldwide for estimating emissions from construction equipment. Emission factors published by United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), Australian National Greenhouse Accounts (AUS NGA), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and European Environmental Agency (EEA) are critically reviewed to identify their strengths and weaknesses. A selection process based on the availability and applicability is then developed to help identify the most suitable emission factor standards for estimating emissions from construction equipment in the Australian context. A case study indicates that a fuel based emission factor is more suitable for GHG emission estimation and a time based emission factor is more appropriate for estimation of non-GHG emissions. However, the selection of emission factor standards also depends on factors like the place of analysis (country of origin), data availability and the scope of analysis. Therefore, suitable modifications and assumptions should be incorporated in order to represent these factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigation options for methane emissions from rice fields in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantin, R.S.; Buendia, L.V.; Wassmann, R.

1996-12-31

The contribution of Philippine rice production to global methane emission and breakthroughs in methane emission studies conducted in the country are presented in this paper. A significant impact in the reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture can be achieved if methane emissions from ricefields can be abated. This study presents the contribution of Philippine rice cultivation to global methane emission and breakthroughs in methane emission studies in the country which address the issue of mitigation. Using the derived emission factors from local measurements, rice cultivation contributes 566.6 Gg of methane emission in the Philippines. This value is 62% of themore » total methane emitted from the agriculture sector. The emission factors employed which are 78% of the IPCC value for irrigated rice and 95% for rainfed rice were derived from measurements with an automatic system taken during the growth duration in the respective ecosystems. Plots drained for 2 weeks at midtillering and before harvest gave a significant reduction in methane emission as opposed to continuously flooded plots and plots drained before harvest. The cultivar Magat reduced methane emission by 50% as compared to the check variety IR72. The application of ammonium sulfate instead of urea reduced methane emission by 10% to 34%. Addition of 6 t ha{sup {minus}1} phosphogypsum in combination with urea reduced emission by 74% as opposed to plots applied with urea alone. It is also from the results of such measurements that abatement strategies are based as regards to modifying treatments such as water management, fertilization, and choice of rice variety. It is not easy to identify and recommend mitigation strategies that will fit a particular cropping system. However, the identified mitigation options provide focus for the abatement of methane emission from ricefields.« less

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Paris INDCs: will they achieve the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Hope, A. P.; Bennett, B.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted prior to the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which are the backbone of the Paris Climate Agreement. Two flavors of INDCs were submitted: unconditional (i.e., firm commitments) and conditional (commitments contingent on financial flow and/or technology transfer). Generally, the Paris INDCs extend to year 2030. However, achievement of either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Agreement requires consideration of emissions out to 2060, due to the projected rise in energy demand, growing populations, and rising standards of living. We therefore project global carbon emissions out to year 2060, and compare to various RCP scenarios of IPCC (2013). These projections will be used to assess whether the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °) of the Paris Climate Agreement will be met.

Inventory of anthropogenic methane emissions in mainland China from 1980 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Shushi; Piao, Shilong; Bousquet, Philippe; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Bengang; Lin, Xin; Tao, Shu; Wang, Zhiping; Zhang, Yuan; Zhou, Feng

2016-11-01

Methane (CH4) has a 28-fold greater global warming potential than CO2 over 100 years. Atmospheric CH4 concentration has tripled since 1750. Anthropogenic CH4 emissions from China have been growing rapidly in the past decades and contribute more than 10 % of global anthropogenic CH4 emissions with large uncertainties in existing global inventories, generally limited to country-scale statistics. To date, a long-term CH4 emission inventory including the major sources sectors and based on province-level emission factors is still lacking. In this study, we produced a detailed annual bottom-up inventory of anthropogenic CH4 emissions from the eight major source sectors in China for the period 1980-2010. In the past 3 decades, the total CH4 emissions increased from 24.4 [18.6-30.5] Tg CH4 yr-1 in 1980 (mean [minimum-maximum of 95 % confidence interval]) to 44.9 [36.6-56.4] Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2010. Most of this increase took place in the 2000s decade with averaged yearly emissions of 38.5 [30.6-48.3] Tg CH4 yr-1. This fast increase of the total CH4 emissions after 2000 is mainly driven by CH4 emissions from coal exploitation. The largest contribution to total CH4 emissions also shifted from rice cultivation in 1980 to coal exploitation in 2010. The total emissions inferred in this work compare well with the EPA inventory but appear to be 36 and 18 % lower than the EDGAR4.2 inventory and the estimates using the same method but IPCC default emission factors, respectively. The uncertainty of our inventory is investigated using emission factors collected from state-of-the-art published literatures. We also distributed province-scale emissions into 0.1° × 0.1° maps using socioeconomic activity data. This new inventory could help understanding CH4 budgets at regional scale and guiding CH4 mitigation policies in China.

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols. Part 1; Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leibensperger, E. M.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Chen, W.-T.; Seinfeld, J. H.; Nenes, A.; Adams, P. J.; Streets, D. G.; Kumar, N.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of -2.0Wm(exp-2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (-2.0Wm-2), nitrate (-0.2Wm(exp-2), organic carbon (-0.2Wm(exp-2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp-2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp-2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp-2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp-2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

A Test of Sensitivity to Convective Transport in a Global Atmospheric CO2 Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bian, H.; Kawa, S. R.; Chin, M.; Pawson, S.; Zhu, Z.; Rasch, P.; Wu, S.

2006-01-01

Two approximations to convective transport have been implemented in an offline chemistry transport model (CTM) to explore the impact on calculated atmospheric CO2 distributions. GlobalCO2 in the year 2000 is simulated using theCTM driven by assimilated meteorological fields from the NASA s Goddard Earth Observation System Data Assimilation System, Version 4 (GEOS-4). The model simulates atmospheric CO2 by adopting the same CO2 emission inventory and dynamical modules as described in Kawa et al. (convective transport scheme denoted as Conv1). Conv1 approximates the convective transport by using the bulk convective mass fluxes to redistribute trace gases. The alternate approximation, Conv2, partitions fluxes into updraft and downdraft, as well as into entrainment and detrainment, and has potential to yield a more realistic simulation of vertical redistribution through deep convection. Replacing Conv1 by Conv2 results in an overestimate of CO2 over biospheric sink regions. The largest discrepancies result in a CO2 difference of about 7.8 ppm in the July NH boreal forest, which is about 30% of the CO2 seasonality for that area. These differences are compared to those produced by emission scenario variations constrained by the framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to account for possible land use change and residual terrestrial CO2 sink. It is shown that the overestimated CO2 driven by Conv2 can be offset by introducing these supplemental emissions.

Derivation of burn scar depths and estimation of carbon emissions with LIDAR in Indonesian peatlands

PubMed Central

Ballhorn, Uwe; Siegert, Florian; Mason, Mike; Limin, Suwido

2009-01-01

During the 1997/98 El Niño-induced drought peatland fires in Indonesia may have released 13–40% of the mean annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. One major unknown in current peatland emission estimations is how much peat is combusted by fire. Using a light detection and ranging data set acquired in Central Kalimantan, Borneo, in 2007, one year after the severe peatland fires of 2006, we determined an average burn scar depth of 0.33 ± 0.18 m. Based on this result and the burned area determined from satellite imagery, we estimate that within the 2.79 million hectare study area 49.15 ± 26.81 megatons of carbon were released during the 2006 El Niño episode. This represents 10–33% of all carbon emissions from transport for the European Community in the year 2006. These emissions, originating from a comparatively small area (approximately 13% of the Indonesian peatland area), underline the importance of peat fires in the context of green house gas emissions and global warming. In the past decade severe peat fires occurred during El Niño-induced droughts in 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009. Currently, this important source of carbon emissions is not included in IPCC carbon accounting or in regional and global carbon emission models. Precise spatial measurements of peat combusted and potential avoided emissions in tropical peat swamp forests will also be required for future emission trading schemes in the framework of Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in developing countries. PMID:19940252

Global Emissions of Nitrous Oxide: Key Source Sectors, their Future Activities and Technical Opportunities for Emission Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winiwarter, W.; Höglund-Isaksson, L.; Klimont, Z.; Schöpp, W.; Amann, M.

2017-12-01

Nitrous oxide originates primarily from natural biogeochemical processes, but its atmospheric concentrations have been strongly affected by human activities. According to IPCC, it is the third largest contributor to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (after carbon dioxide and methane). Deep decarbonization scenarios, which are able to constrain global temperature increase within 1.5°C, require strategies to cut methane and nitrous oxide emissions on top of phasing out carbon dioxide emissions. Employing the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies (GAINS) model, we have estimated global emissions of nitrous oxide until 2050. Using explicitly defined emission reduction technologies we demonstrate that, by 2030, about 26% ± 9% of the emissions can be avoided assuming full implementation of currently existing reduction technologies. Nearly a quarter of this mitigation can be achieved at marginal costs lower than 10 Euro/t CO2-eq with the chemical industry sector offering important reductions. Overall, the largest emitter of nitrous oxide, agriculture, also provides the largest emission abatement potentials. Emission reduction may be achieved by precision farming methods (variable rate technology) as well as by agrochemistry (nitrification inhibitors). Regionally, the largest emission reductions are achievable where intensive agriculture and industry are prevalent (production and application of mineral fertilizers): Centrally Planned Asia including China, North and Latin America, and South Asia including India. Further deep cuts in nitrous oxide emissions will require extending reduction efforts beyond strictly technological solutions, i.e., considering behavioral changes, including widespread adoption of "healthy diets" minimizing excess protein consumption.

Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns.

PubMed

Dangal, Shree R S; Tian, Hanqin; Zhang, Bowen; Pan, Shufen; Lu, Chaoqun; Yang, Jia

2017-10-01

Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH 4 ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH 4 emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH 4 emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH 4 or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO 2 -eq (1 MT = 10 12 g, 1 Gt = 10 15 g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO 2 GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH 4 emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH 4 or 2.06 Gt CO 2 -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH 4 emissions/km 2 ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH 4 emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km 2 ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH 4 emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

2017-02-01

The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

GHG emissions inventory for on-road transportation in the town of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanna, Laura; Ferrara, Roberto; Zara, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2016-04-01

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) accounts an increase of the total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 that directly came from the transport sector. In 2010, 14% of GHG emissions were released by transport and fossil-fuel-related CO2 emissions reached about 32 GtCO2 per year. The report also considers adaptation and mitigation as complementary strategies for reducing the risks of climate change for sustainable development of urban areas. This paper describes the on-road traffic emission estimated in the framework of a Sardinian regional project [1] for the town of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy), one of the Sardinian areas where the fuel consumption for on-road transportation purposes is higher [2]. The GHG emissions have been accounted (a) by a calculation-based methodology founded on a linear relationship between source activity and emission, and (b) by the COPERT IV methodology through the EMITRA (EMIssions from road TRAnsport) software tool [3]. Inventory data for annual fossil fuel consumption associated with on-road transportation (diesel, gasoline, gas) have been collected through the Dogane service, the ATP and ARST public transport services and vehicle fleet data are available from the Public Vehicle Database (PRA), using 2010 as baseline year. During this period, the estimated CO2 emissions accounts for more than 180,000 tCO2. The calculation of emissions due to on-road transport quantitatively estimates CO2 and other GHG emissions and represents a useful baseline to identify possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to face the climate change risks at municipal level. Acknowledgements This research was funded by the Sardinian Regional Project "Development, functional checking and setup of an integrated system for the quantification of CO2 net exchange and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies at urban and territorial scale", (Legge Regionale 7 agosto 2007, No. 7). References [1] Sanna L., Ferrara R., Zara P. & Duce P. (2014), GHG emissions inventory at urban scale: the Sassari case study, Energy Procedia, No. 59, pp. 344 - 350. [2] Bellasio R, Bianconi R, Corda G, Cucca P. (2007), Emission inventory for the road transport sector in Sardinia (Italy), Atmospheric Environment, No. 41, pp. 677-691. [3] Gkatzoflias D., Kouridis C., Ntziachristos L. & Samaras Z. (2012), COPERT 4, Computer programme to calculate emissions from road transport, User manual (version 9.0), Emisia.

Applying the conservativeness principle to REDD to deal with the uncertainties of the estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grassi, Giacomo; Monni, Suvi; Federici, Sandro; Achard, Frederic; Mollicone, Danilo

2008-07-01

A common paradigm when the reduction of emissions from deforestations is estimated for the purpose of promoting it as a mitigation option in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is that high uncertainties in input data—i.e., area change and C stock change/area—may seriously undermine the credibility of the estimates and therefore of reduced deforestation as a mitigation option. In this paper, we show how a series of concepts and methodological tools—already existing in UNFCCC decisions and IPCC guidance documents—may greatly help to deal with the uncertainties of the estimates of reduced emissions from deforestation.

Effects of tillage practice on soil structure, N2O emissions and economics in cereal production under current socio-economic conditions in central Bosnia and Herzegovina

PubMed Central

Sitaula, Bishal Kumar; Čustović, Hamid; Žurovec, Jasminka; Dörsch, Peter

2017-01-01

Conservation tillage is expected to have a positive effect on soil physical properties, soil Carbon (C) storage, while reducing fuel, labour and machinery costs. However, reduced tillage could increase soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and offset the expected gains from increased C sequestration. To date, conservation tillage is barely practiced or studied in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH). Here, we report a field study on the short-term effects of reduced (RT) and no tillage (NT) on N2O emission dynamics, yield-scaled N2O emissions, soil structure and the economics of cereal production, as compared with conventional tillage (CT). The field experiment was conducted in the Sarajevo region on a clayey loam under typical climatic conditions for humid, continental BH. N2O emissions were monitored in a Maize-Barley rotation over two cropping seasons. Soil structure was studied at the end of the second season. In the much wetter 2014, N2O emission were in the order of CT > RT > NT, while in the drier 2015, the order was RT > CT > NT. The emission factors were within or slightly above the uncertainty range of the IPCC Tier 1 factor, if taking account for the N input from the cover crop (alfalfa) preceding the first experimental year. Saturated soils in spring, formation of soil crusts and occasional droughts adversely affected yields, particularly in the second year (barley). In 2014, yield-scaled N2O emissions ranged from 83.2 to 161.7 g N Mg-1 grain (corn) but were much greater in the second year due to crop failure (barley). RT had the smallest yield-scaled N2O emission in both years. NT resulted in economically inacceptable returns, due to the increased costs of weed control and low yields in both years. The reduced number of operations in RT reduced production costs and generated positive net returns. Therefore, RT could potentially provide agronomic and environmental benefits in crop production in BH. PMID:29117229

Effects of tillage practice on soil structure, N2O emissions and economics in cereal production under current socio-economic conditions in central Bosnia and Herzegovina.

PubMed

Žurovec, Ognjen; Sitaula, Bishal Kumar; Čustović, Hamid; Žurovec, Jasminka; Dörsch, Peter

2017-01-01

Conservation tillage is expected to have a positive effect on soil physical properties, soil Carbon (C) storage, while reducing fuel, labour and machinery costs. However, reduced tillage could increase soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and offset the expected gains from increased C sequestration. To date, conservation tillage is barely practiced or studied in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH). Here, we report a field study on the short-term effects of reduced (RT) and no tillage (NT) on N2O emission dynamics, yield-scaled N2O emissions, soil structure and the economics of cereal production, as compared with conventional tillage (CT). The field experiment was conducted in the Sarajevo region on a clayey loam under typical climatic conditions for humid, continental BH. N2O emissions were monitored in a Maize-Barley rotation over two cropping seasons. Soil structure was studied at the end of the second season. In the much wetter 2014, N2O emission were in the order of CT > RT > NT, while in the drier 2015, the order was RT > CT > NT. The emission factors were within or slightly above the uncertainty range of the IPCC Tier 1 factor, if taking account for the N input from the cover crop (alfalfa) preceding the first experimental year. Saturated soils in spring, formation of soil crusts and occasional droughts adversely affected yields, particularly in the second year (barley). In 2014, yield-scaled N2O emissions ranged from 83.2 to 161.7 g N Mg-1 grain (corn) but were much greater in the second year due to crop failure (barley). RT had the smallest yield-scaled N2O emission in both years. NT resulted in economically inacceptable returns, due to the increased costs of weed control and low yields in both years. The reduced number of operations in RT reduced production costs and generated positive net returns. Therefore, RT could potentially provide agronomic and environmental benefits in crop production in BH.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Offshore Fisheries of the Republic of Korea.

PubMed

Park, Jeong-A; Gardner, Caleb; Chang, Myo-In; Kim, Do-Hoon; Jang, Young-Soo

2015-01-01

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the offshore fisheries industry in the Republic of Korea (Korea) were examined in response to growing concerns about global warming and the contribution of emissions from different industrial sectors. Fuel usage and GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) were analysed using the 'Tier 1' method provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the offshore fishery, which is the primary domestic seafood production sector in Korea. In 2013, fuel usage in the offshore fishery accounted for 59.7% (557,463 KL) of total fuel consumption of fishing vessels in Korea. Fuel consumption and thus GHG emissions were not stable through time in this industry, increasing by 2.4% p.a. for three consecutive years, from 2011 to 2013, despite a decrease in the number of vessels operating. GHG emissions generated in offshore fisheries also changed through time and increased from 1,442,975 tCO2e/year in 2011 to 1,477,279 tCO2e/year in 2013. Changes in both fuel use and GHG emissions per kg offshore fish production appeared to be associated with decreasing catch rates by the fleet, which in turn were a reflection of decrease in fish biomass. Another important feature of GHG emissions in this industry was the high variation in GHG emission per kg fish product among different fishing methods. The long line fishery had approximately three times the emissions of the average production while the jigging fishery was more than two times higher than the average. Lowest emissions were from the trawl sector, which is regarded as having greatest environmental impact using traditional biodiversity metrics although had lowest environmental impact in terms of fuel and GHG emission metrics used in this study. The observed deterioration in fuel efficiency of the offshore fishery each year is of concern but also demonstrates that fuel efficiency can change, which shows there is opportunity to improve efficiency with changes to fishery management and harvesting operations.

Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Offshore Fisheries of the Republic of Korea

PubMed Central

Park, Jeong-A; Gardner, Caleb; Chang, Myo-In; Kim, Do-Hoon; Jang, Young-Soo

2015-01-01

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the offshore fisheries industry in the Republic of Korea (Korea) were examined in response to growing concerns about global warming and the contribution of emissions from different industrial sectors. Fuel usage and GHG emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) were analysed using the ‘Tier 1’ method provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the offshore fishery, which is the primary domestic seafood production sector in Korea. In 2013, fuel usage in the offshore fishery accounted for 59.7% (557,463 KL) of total fuel consumption of fishing vessels in Korea. Fuel consumption and thus GHG emissions were not stable through time in this industry, increasing by 2.4% p.a. for three consecutive years, from 2011 to 2013, despite a decrease in the number of vessels operating. GHG emissions generated in offshore fisheries also changed through time and increased from 1,442,975 tCO2e/year in 2011 to 1,477,279 tCO2e/year in 2013. Changes in both fuel use and GHG emissions per kg offshore fish production appeared to be associated with decreasing catch rates by the fleet, which in turn were a reflection of decrease in fish biomass. Another important feature of GHG emissions in this industry was the high variation in GHG emission per kg fish product among different fishing methods. The long line fishery had approximately three times the emissions of the average production while the jigging fishery was more than two times higher than the average. Lowest emissions were from the trawl sector, which is regarded as having greatest environmental impact using traditional biodiversity metrics although had lowest environmental impact in terms of fuel and GHG emission metrics used in this study. The observed deterioration in fuel efficiency of the offshore fishery each year is of concern but also demonstrates that fuel efficiency can change, which shows there is opportunity to improve efficiency with changes to fishery management and harvesting operations. PMID:26317341

EDITORIAL: Tropical deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbs, Holly K.; Herold, Martin

2007-10-01

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation have long been recognized as a key component of the global carbon budget, and more recently of our global climate system. Tropical forest clearing accounts for roughly 20% of anthropogenic carbon emissions and destroys globally significant carbon sinks (IPCC 2007). Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to address these emissions and to more actively include developing countries in greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g. Santilli et al 2005, Gullison et al 2007). In 2005, at the Conference of the Parties (COP) in Montreal, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) launched a new initiative to assess the scientific and technical methods and issues for developing policy approaches and incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) in developing countries (Gullison et al 2007). Over the last two years the methods and tools needed to estimate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation have quickly evolved, as the scientific community responded to the UNFCCC policy needs. This focus issue highlights those advancements, covering some of the most important technical issues for measuring and monitoring emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and emphasizing immediately available methods and data, as well as future challenges. Elements for effective long-term implementation of a REDD mechanism related to both environmental and political concerns are discussed in Mollicone et al. Herold and Johns synthesize viewpoints of national parties to the UNFCCC on REDD and expand upon key issues for linking policy requirements and forest monitoring capabilities. In response to these expressed policy needs, they discuss a remote-sensing-based observation framework to start REDD implementation activities and build historical deforestation databases on the national level. Achard et al offer an assessment of remote sensing measurements across the world's tropical forests that can provide key consistency and prioritization for national-level efforts. Gibbs et al calculate a range of national-level forest carbon stock estimates that can be used immediately, and also review ground-based and remote sensing approaches to estimate national-level tropical carbon stocks with increased accuracy. These papers help illustrate that methodologies and tools are indeed available to estimate emissions from deforestation. Clearly, important technical challenges remain (e.g. quantifying degradation, assessing uncertainty, verification procedures, capacity building, and Landsat data continuity) but we now have a sufficient technical base to support REDD early actions and readiness mechanisms for building national monitoring systems. Thus, we enter the COP 13 in Bali, Indonesia with great hope for a more inclusive climate policy encompassing all countries and emissions sources from both land-use and energy sectors. Our understanding of tropical deforestation and carbon emissions is improving and with that, opportunities to conserve tropical forests and the host of ecosystem services they provide while also increasing revenue streams in developing countries through economic incentives to avoid deforestation and degradation. References Gullison R E et al 2007 Tropical forests and climate policy Science 316 985 6 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Santilli M et al 2005 Tropical deforestation and the Kyoto Protocol: an editorial essay Clim. Change 71 267 76 Focus on Tropical Deforestation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Contents The articles below represent the first accepted contributions and further additions will appear in the near future. Pan-tropical monitoring of deforestation F Achard, R DeFries, H Eva, M Hansen, P Mayaux and H-J Stibig Monitoring and estimating tropical forest carbon stocks: making REDD a reality Holly K Gibbs, Sandra Brown, John O Niles and Jonathan A Foley Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC D Mollicone, A Freibauer, E D Schulze, S Braatz, G Grassi and S Federici

Low-Carbon Watershed Management: Potential of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Wastewater Treatment in Rural Vietnam.

PubMed

Nguyen, Lan Huong; Mohan, Geetha; Jian, Pu; Takemoto, Kazuhiko; Fukushi, Kensuke

2016-01-01

Currently in many cities and rural areas of Vietnam, wastewater is discharged to the environment without any treatment, which emits considerable amount of greenhouse gas (GHG), particularly methane. In this study, four GHG emission scenarios were examined, as well as the baseline scenario, in order to verify the potential of GHG reduction from domestic wastewater with adequate treatment facilities. The ArcGIS and ArcHydro tools were employed to visualize and analyze GHG emissions resulting from discharge of untreated wastewater, in rural areas of Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam. By applying the current IPCC guidelines for GHG emissions, we found that a reduction of GHG emissions can be achieved through treatment of domestic wastewater in the studied area. Compared with baseline scenario, a maximum 16% of total GHG emissions can be reduced, in which 30% of households existing latrines are substituted by Japanese Johkasou technology and other 20% of domestic wastewater is treated by conventional activated sludge.

Low-Carbon Watershed Management: Potential of Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Wastewater Treatment in Rural Vietnam

PubMed Central

Mohan, Geetha; Jian, Pu; Takemoto, Kazuhiko; Fukushi, Kensuke

2016-01-01

Currently in many cities and rural areas of Vietnam, wastewater is discharged to the environment without any treatment, which emits considerable amount of greenhouse gas (GHG), particularly methane. In this study, four GHG emission scenarios were examined, as well as the baseline scenario, in order to verify the potential of GHG reduction from domestic wastewater with adequate treatment facilities. The ArcGIS and ArcHydro tools were employed to visualize and analyze GHG emissions resulting from discharge of untreated wastewater, in rural areas of Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin, Vietnam. By applying the current IPCC guidelines for GHG emissions, we found that a reduction of GHG emissions can be achieved through treatment of domestic wastewater in the studied area. Compared with baseline scenario, a maximum 16% of total GHG emissions can be reduced, in which 30% of households existing latrines are substituted by Japanese Johkasou technology and other 20% of domestic wastewater is treated by conventional activated sludge. PMID:27699202

Estimation of carbon emission from peatland fires using Landsat-8 OLI imagery in Siak District, Riau Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisyah Fadhillah Hafni, Dinda; Syaufina, Lailan; Puspaningsih, Nining; Prasasti, Indah

2018-05-01

The study was conducted in three land cover conditions (secondary peat forest, shrub land, and palm plantation) that were burned in the Siak District, Riau Province, Indonesia year 2015. Measurement and calculation carbon emission from soil and vegetation of peatland should be done accurately to be implemented on climate change mitigation or greenhouse gases mitigation. The objective of the study was to estimate the carbon emission caused peatland fires in the Siak District, Riau Province, Indonesia year 2015. Estimated carbon emissions were performed using visual method and digital method. The visual method was a method that uses on-screen digitization assisted by hotspot data, the presence of smoke, and fire suppression data. The digital method was a method that uses the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) index. The estimated carbon emissions were calculated using the equation that was developed from IPCC 2006 in Verified Carbon Standard 2015. The results showed that the estimation of carbon emissions from fires from above the peat soil surface were higher than the carbon emissions from the peat soil. Carbon emissions above the peat soil surface of 1376.51 ton C/ha were obtained by visual method while 3984.33 ton C/ha were obtained by digital method. Peatland carbon emissions of 6.6 x 10-4 ton C/ha were obtained by visual method, whereas 2.84 x 10-3 ton C/ha was obtained by digital method. Visual method and digital method using remote sensing must be combined and developed in order to carbon emission values will be more accurate.

The challenge of modelling nitrogen management at the field scale: simulation and sensitivity analysis of N2O fluxes across nine experimental sites using DailyDayCent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitton, N.; Datta, A.; Hastings, A.; Kuhnert, M.; Topp, C. F. E.; Cloy, J. M.; Rees, R. M.; Cardenas, L. M.; Williams, J. R.; Smith, K.; Chadwick, D.; Smith, P.

2014-09-01

The United Kingdom currently reports nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture using the IPCC default Tier 1 methodology. However Tier 1 estimates have a large degree of uncertainty as they do not account for spatial variations in emissions. Therefore biogeochemical models such as DailyDayCent (DDC) are increasingly being used to provide a spatially disaggregated assessment of annual emissions. Prior to use, an assessment of the ability of the model to predict annual emissions should be undertaken, coupled with an analysis of how model inputs influence model outputs, and whether the modelled estimates are more robust that those derived from the Tier 1 methodology. The aims of the study were (a) to evaluate if the DailyDayCent model can accurately estimate annual N2O emissions across nine different experimental sites, (b) to examine its sensitivity to different soil and climate inputs across a number of experimental sites and (c) to examine the influence of uncertainty in the measured inputs on modelled N2O emissions. DailyDayCent performed well across the range of cropland and grassland sites, particularly for fertilized fields indicating that it is robust for UK conditions. The sensitivity of the model varied across the sites and also between fertilizer/manure treatments. Overall our results showed that there was a stronger correlation between the sensitivity of N2O emissions to changes in soil pH and clay content than the remaining input parameters used in this study. The lower the initial site values for soil pH and clay content, the more sensitive DDC was to changes from their initial value. When we compared modelled estimates with Tier 1 estimates for each site, we found that DailyDayCent provided a more accurate representation of the rate of annual emissions.

Carbon Footprint of Biofuel Sugarcane Produced in Mineral and Organic Soils in Florida

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Izursa, Jose-Luis; Hanlon, Edward; Amponsah, Nana

2013-02-06

Ethanol produced from sugarcane is an existing and accessible form of renewable energy. In this study, we applied the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach to estimate the Carbon Footprint (CFP) of biofuel sugarcane produced on mineral (sandy) and organic (muck) soils in Florida. CFP was estimated from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) during the biofuel sugarcane cultivation. The data for the energy (fossil fuels and electricity), equipment, and chemical fertilizers were taken from enterprise budgets prepared by the University of Florida based on surveys and interviews obtained from local growers during the cropping years 2007/2008 and 2009/2010more » for mineral soils and 2008/2009 for organic soils. Emissions from biomass burning and organic land use were calculated based on the IPCC guidelines. The results show that the CFP for biofuel sugarcane production is 0.04 kg CO2e kg-1y-1 when produced in mineral soils and 0.46 kg CO2e kg-1y-1 when produced in organic soils. Most of the GHG emissions from production of biofuel sugarcane in mineral soils come from equipment (33%), fertilizers (28%), and biomass burning (27%); whereas GHG emissions from production in organic soils come predominantly from the soil (93%). This difference should be considered to adopt new practices for a more sustainable farming system if biofuel feedstocks are to be considered.« less

Constraints on global temperature target overshoot.

PubMed

Ricke, K L; Millar, R J; MacMartin, D G

2017-11-07

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, the climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., "overshoot") of temperature targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal rates will be an important contribution to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing, independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the scope of scenarios broadly-consistent with the WG3 database, the magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization. However, limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries requires ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature target overshoot's properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to consider how climate impacts depend on both the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming.

Observation of Wetland Dynamics with Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuffada, C.; Shah, R.; Nghiem, S. V.; Cardellach, E.; Chew, C. C.

2015-12-01

Wetland dynamics is crucial to changes in both atmospheric methane and terrestrial water storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) highlights the role of wetlands as a key driver of methane (CH4) emission, which is more than one order of magnitude stronger than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas in the centennial time scale. Among the multitude of methane emission sources (hydrates, livestock, rice cultivation, freshwaters, landfills and waste, fossil fuels, biomass burning, termites, geological sources, and soil oxidation), wetlands constitute the largest contributor with the widest uncertainty range of 177-284 Tg(CH4) yr-1 according to the IPCC estimate. Wetlands are highly susceptible to climate change that might lead to wetland collapse. Such wetland destruction would decrease the terrestrial water storage capacity and thus contribute to sea level rise, consequently exacerbating coastal flooding problems. For both methane change and water storage change, wetland dynamics is a crucial factor with the largest uncertainty. Nevertheless, a complete and consistent map of global wetlands still needs to be obtained as the Ramsar Convention calls for a wetlands inventory and impact assessment. We develop a new method for observations of wetland change using Global Navigation Satellite Signals Reflectometry (GNSS-R) signatures for global wetland mapping in synergy with the existing capability, not only as a static inventory but also as a temporal dataset, to advance the capability for monitoring the dynamics of wetland extent relevant to addressing the science issues of CH4 emission change and terrestrial water storage change. We will demonstrate the capability of the new GNSS-R method over a rice field in the Ebro Delta wetland in Spain.

Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Golly, A.; Mengel, M.; Lebek, K.; Donner, S. D.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.

2013-02-01

Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5°C (atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3-1.8°C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals' thermal adaptation, one-third (9-60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world's coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30-88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Fuel moisture content estimation: a land-surface modelling approach applied to African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Spessa, A.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Despite the importance of fire to the global climate system, in terms of emissions from biomass burning, ecosystem structure and function, and changes to surface albedo, current land-surface models do not adequately estimate key variables affecting fire ignition and propagation. Fuel moisture content (FMC) is considered one of the most important of these variables (Chuvieco et al., 2004). Biophysical models, with appropriate plant functional type parameterisations, are the most viable option to adequately predict FMC over continental scales at high temporal resolution. However, the complexity of plant-water interactions, and the variability associated with short-term climate changes, means it is one of the most difficult fire variables to quantify and predict. Our work attempts to resolve this issue using a combination of satellite data and biophysical modelling applied to Africa. The approach we take is to represent live FMC as a surface dryness index; expressed as the ratio between the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land-surface temperature (LST). It has been argued in previous studies (Sandholt et al., 2002; Snyder et al., 2006), that this ratio displays a statistically stronger correlation to FMC than either of the variables, considered separately. In this study, simulated FMC is constrained through the assimilation of remotely sensed LST and NDVI data into the land-surface model JULES (Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator). Previous modelling studies of fire activity in Africa savannas, such as Lehsten et al. (2008), have reported significant levels of uncertainty associated with the simulations. This uncertainty is important because African savannas are among some of the most frequently burnt ecosystems and are a major source of greenhouse trace gases and aerosol emissions (Scholes et al., 1996). Furthermore, regional climate model studies indicate that many parts of the African savannas will experience drier and warmer conditions in future (IPCC 2007). The simulation of realistic fire disturbance regimes with biophysical and biogeochemical models is a prerequisite for reducing the uncertainty of the African carbon cycle, and the feedbacks associated with this cycle and the global climate system. Using multi-temporal modelling analysis techniques, we present preliminary results that provide a more robust estimation of live FMC. References Chuvieco, E., Aguado, I. and Dimitrakopoulos, A. P. (2004) Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 34(11): 2284-2293. IPCC (2007) 'Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)].' IPCC, (Geneva, Switzerland). Lehsten, V., Tansey, K. J., Balzter, H, Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Weber, U., Smith, B., and Arneth, A. (2008). Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires. Accepted Biogeosciences. Sandholt, I., Rasmussen, K. & Andersen, J. (2002) A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status. Remote Sensing of Environment 79(2-3): 213-224. Scholes, R. J., Ward, D. E. and Justice, C. O. (1996) Emissions of trace gases and aerosol particles due to vegetation burning in southern hemisphere Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 101(D19): 23677-23682. Snyder, R. L., Spano, D., Duce, P., Baldocchi, D., Xu, L. K. & Kyaw, T. P. U. (2006) A fuel dryness index for grassland fire-danger assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 139(1-2): 1-11.

Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

2016-03-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

Global air quality and climate.

PubMed

Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

2012-10-07

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-03-01

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3% yr-1, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Figure 1. Figure 1. CO2 annual emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, an update of figure 16 of Hansen (2003) using data of British Petroleum (BP 2012) concatenated with data of Boden et al (2012). The resulting annual increase of atmospheric CO2 (12-month running mean) has grown from less than 1 ppm yr-1 in the early 1960s to an average ~2 ppm yr-1 in the past decade (figure 2). Although CO2 measurements were not made at sufficient locations prior to the early 1980s to calculate the global mean change, the close match of global and Mauna Loa data for later years suggests that Mauna Loa data provide a good approximation of global change (figure 2), thus allowing a useful estimate of annual global change beginning with the initiation of Mauna Loa measurements in 1958 by Keeling et al (1973). Figure 2. Figure 2. Annual increase of CO2 based on data from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL 2012). CO2 change and global temperature change are 12-month running means of differences for the same month of consecutive years. Nino index (Nino3.4 area) is 12-month running mean. Both temperature indices use data from Hansen et al (2010). Annual mean CO2 amount in 1958 was 315 ppm (Mauna Loa) and in 2012 was 394 ppm (Mauna Loa) and 393 ppm (Global). Interannual variability of CO2 growth is correlated with ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) variations of tropical temperatures (figure 2). Ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange is affected by ENSO (Chavez et al 1999), but ENSO seems to have a greater impact on atmospheric CO2 via the terrestrial carbon cycle through effects on the water cycle, temperature, and fire, as discussed in a large body of literature (referenced, e.g., by Schwalm et al 2011). In addition, volcanoes, such as the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, slow the increase of atmospheric CO2 (Rothenberg et al 2012), at least in part because photosynthesis is enhanced by the increased proportion of diffuse sunlight (Gu et al 2003, Mercado et al 2009). Watson (1997) suggests that volcanic dust deposited on the ocean surface may also contribute to CO2 uptake by increasing ocean productivity. An important question is whether ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks will tend to saturate as human-made CO2 emissions continue. Piao et al (2008) and Zhao and Running (2010) suggest that there already may be a reduction of terrestrial carbon uptake, while Le Quéréet al (2007) and Schuster and Watson (2007) find evidence of decreased carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean, respectively. However, others (Knorr 2009, Sarmiento et al 2010, Ballantyne et al 2012) either cast doubt on the reality of a reduced uptake strength or find evidence for increased uptake. An informative presentation of CO2 observations is the ratio of annual CO2 increase in the air divided by annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions (Keeling et al 1973), the 'airborne fraction' (figure 3, right scale). An alternative definition of airborne fraction includes in the denominator of this ratio an estimated net anthropogenic CO2 source from changes in land use, but this latter term is much more uncertain than the two terms involved in the Keeling et al (1973) definition. For example, analysis by Harris et al (2012) reveals a range as high as a factor of 2-4 in estimates of recent land use emissions; see also the discussion by Sarmiento et al (2010). However, note that the airborne fraction becomes smaller when estimated land use emissions are included, with the uptake fraction (one minus airborne fraction) typically greater than 0.5. Figure 3. Figure 3. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions (left scale) and airborne fraction, i.e., the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2 increase to fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Final three points are 5-, 3- and 1-year means. The simple Keeling airborne fraction, clearly, is not increasing (figure 3). Thus the net ocean plus terrestrial sink for carbon emissions has increased by a factor of 3-4 since 1958, accommodating the emissions increase by that factor. Remarkably, and we will argue importantly, the airborne fraction has declined since 2000 (figure 3) during a period without any large volcanic eruptions. The 7-year running mean of the airborne fraction had remained close to 60% up to 2000, except for the period affected by Pinatubo. The airborne fraction is affected by factors other than the efficiency of carbon sinks, most notably by changes in the rate of fossil fuel emissions (Gloor et al 2010). However, it is the dependence of the airborne fraction on fossil fuel emission rate that makes the post-2000 downturn of the airborne fraction particularly striking. The change of emission rate in 2000 from 1.5% yr-1 to 3.1% yr-1 (figure 1), other things being equal, would have caused a sharp increase of the airborne fraction (the simple reason being that a rapid source increase provides less time for carbon to be moved downward out of the ocean's upper layers). A decrease in land use emissions during the past decade (Harris et al 2012) could contribute to the decreasing airborne fraction in figure 3, although Malhi (2010) presents evidence that tropical forest deforestation and regrowth are approximately in balance, within uncertainties. Land use change can be only a partial explanation for the decrease of the airborne fraction; something more than land use change seems to be occurring. We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1). Increased coal use occurred primarily in China and India (Boden et al 2012; BP 2012; see graphs at www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/Emis_moreFigs/). Satellite radiance measurements for July-December, months when desert dust does not dominate aerosol amount, yield an increase of aerosol optical depth in East Asia of about 4% yr-1 during 2000-2006 (van Donkelaar et al 2008). Associated gaseous and particulate emissions increased rapidly after 2000 in China and India (Lu et al 2011, Tian et al 2010). Some decrease of the sulfur component of emissions occurred in China after 2006 as wide application of flue-gas desulfurization began to be initiated (Lu et al 2010), but this was largely offset by continuing emission increases from India (Lu et al 2011). We suggest that the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal, since 2000 is a basic cause of the large increase of carbon uptake by the combined terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks. One mechanism by which fossil fuel emissions increase carbon uptake is by fertilizing the biosphere via provision of nutrients essential for tissue building, especially nitrogen, which plays a critical role in controlling net primary productivity and is limited in many ecosystems (Gruber and Galloway 2008). Modeling (e.g., Thornton et al 2009) and field studies (Magnani et al 2007) confirm a major role of nitrogen deposition, working in concert with CO2 fertilization, in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced. Thus we see the decreased CO2 airborne fraction since 2000 as sharing some of the same causes as the decreased airborne fraction after the Pinatubo eruption (figure 3). CO2 fertilization is likely the major effect, as a plausible addition of 5 TgN yr-1 from fossil fuels and net ecosystem productivity of 200 kgC kgN-1 (Magnani et al 2007, 2008) yields an annual carbon drawdown of 1 GtC yr-1, which is of the order of what is needed to explain the post-2000 anomaly in airborne CO2. However, an aerosol-induced increase of diffuse radiation might also contribute. Although tropospheric aerosol properties are not accurately monitored, there are suggestions of an upward trend of stratospheric background aerosols since 2000 (Hofmann et al 2009, Solomon et al 2011), which could be a consequence of more tropospheric aerosols at low latitudes where injection of tropospheric air into the stratosphere occurs (Holton et al 1995). We discuss climate implications of the reduced CO2 airborne fraction after presenting data for other greenhouse gases. Atmospheric CH4 is increasing more slowly than in IPCC scenarios (figure 4), which were defined more than a decade ago (IPCC 2001). However, after remaining nearly constant for several years, CH4 has increased during the past five years, pushing slightly above the level that was envisaged in the Alternative Scenario of Hansen et al (2000). Reduction of CH4, besides slowdown in CO2 growth in the twenty first century and a decline of CO2 in the twenty second century, is a principal requirement to achieve a low climate forcing that stabilizes climate, in part because CH4 also affects tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor. The Alternative Scenario, defined in detail by Hansen and Sato (2004), keeps maximum global warming at ~1.5 °C relative to 1880-1920, under the assumption that fast-feedback climate sensitivity is ~3 °C for doubled CO2 (Hansen et al 2007). The Alternative Scenario allows CO2 to reach 475 ppm in 2100 before declining slowly; this scenario assumes that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols can be achieved sufficient to balance the warming effect of likely future decreases of reflective aerosols. Figure 4. Figure 4. Observed atmospheric CH4 amount and scenarios for twenty first century. Alternative scenario (Hansen et al 2000, Hansen and Sato 2004) yields maximum global warming ~1.5 °C above 1880-1920. Other scenarios are from IPCC (2001). Forcing on right hand scale is adjusted forcing, Fa, relative to values in 2000 (Hansen et al 2007). There are anthropogenic sources of CH4 that potentially could be reduced, indeed, the leveling off of CH4 amount during the past 20 years seems to have been caused by decreased venting in oil fields (Simpson et al 2012), but the feasibility of overall CH4 reduction also depends on limiting global warming itself, because of the potential for amplifying climate-CH4 feedbacks (Archer et al 2009, Koven et al 2011). Furthermore, reduction of atmospheric CH4 might become problematic if unconventional mining of gas, such as 'hydro-fracking', expands widely (Cipolla 2009), as discussed further below. The growth rate for the total climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases has remained below the peak values reached in the 1970s and early 1980s, has been relatively stable for about 20 years, and is falling below IPCC (2001) scenarios (figure 5). However, the greenhouse gas forcing is growing faster than in the Alternative Scenario. MPTGs and OTGs in figure 5 are Montreal Protocol Trace Gases and Other Trace Gases (Hansen and Sato 2004). Figure 5. Figure 5. Five-year mean of the growth rate of climate forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases, an update of figure 4 of Hansen and Sato (2004). Forcing calculations use equations of Hansen et al (2000). The moderate uncertainties in radiative calculations affect the scenarios and actual greenhouse gas results equally and thus do not alter the conclusion that the actual forcing falls below that of the IPCC scenarios. If greenhouse gases were the only climate forcing, we would be tempted to infer from Rahmstorf's conclusion (that actual climate change has exceeded IPCC projections) and our conclusion (that actual greenhouse gas forcings are slightly smaller than IPCC scenarios) that actual climate sensitivity is on the high side of what has generally been assumed. Although that may be a valid inference, the evidence is weakened by the fact that other climate forcings are not negligible in comparison to the greenhouse gases and must be accounted for. Natural forcings, by changing solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols, are well-measured since the late 1970s and included in most IPCC (2007) climate simulations. The difficulty is human-made aerosols. Aerosols are readily detected in satellite observations, but determination of their climate forcing requires accurate knowledge of changes in aerosol amount, size distribution, absorption and vertical distribution on a global basis—as well as simultaneous data on changes in cloud properties to allow inference of the indirect aerosol forcing via induced cloud changes. Unfortunately, the first satellite mission capable of measuring the needed aerosol characteristics (Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor on the Glory satellite, (Mishchenko et al 2007)) suffered a launch failure and as yet there are no concrete plans for a replacement mission. The human-made aerosol climate forcing thus remains uncertain. IPCC (2007) concludes that aerosols are a negative (cooling) forcing, probably between -0.5 and -2.5 W m-2. Hansen et al (2011), based mainly on analysis of Earth's energy imbalance, derive an aerosol forcing -1.6 ± 0.3 W m-2, consistent with an analysis of Murphy et al (2009) that suggests an aerosol forcing about -1.5 W m-2 (see discussion in Hansen et al (2011)). This large negative aerosol forcing reduces the net climate forcing of the past century by about half (IPCC 2007; figure 1 of Hansen et al 2011). Coincidentally, this leaves net climate forcing comparable to the CO2 forcing alone. Reduction of the net human-made climate forcing by aerosols has been described as a 'Faustian bargain' (Hansen and Lacis 1990, Hansen 2009), because the aerosols constitute deleterious particulate air pollution. Reduction of the net climate forcing by half will continue only if we allow air pollution to build up to greater and greater amounts. More likely, humanity will demand and achieve a reduction of particulate air pollution, whereupon, because the CO2 from fossil fuel burning remains in the surface climate system for millennia, the 'devil's payment' will be extracted from humanity via increased global warming. So is the new data we present here good news or bad news, and how does it alter the 'Faustian bargain'? At first glance there seems to be some good news. First, if our interpretation of the data is correct, the surge of fossil fuel emissions, especially from coal burning, along with the increasing atmospheric CO2 level is 'fertilizing' the biosphere, and thus limiting the growth of atmospheric CO2. Also, despite the absence of accurate global aerosol measurements, it seems that the aerosol cooling effect is probably increasing based on evidence of aerosol increases in the Far East and increasing 'background' stratospheric aerosols. Both effects work to limit global warming and thus help explain why the rate of global warming seems to be less this decade than it has been during the prior quarter century. This data interpretation also helps explain why multiple warnings that some carbon sinks are 'drying up' and could even become carbon sources, e.g., boreal forests infested by pine bark beetles (Kurz et al 2008) and the Amazon rain forest suffering from drought (Lewis et al 2011), have not produced an obvious impact on atmospheric CO2. However, increased CO2 uptake does not necessarily mean that the biosphere is healthier or that the increased carbon uptake will continue indefinitely (Matson et al 2002, Galloway et al 2002, Heimann and Reichstein 2008, Gruber and Galloway 2008). Nor does it change the basic facts about the potential magnitude of the fossil fuel carbon source (figure 6) and the long lifetime of the CO2 in the surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, soil, biosphere) once the fossil fuels are burned (Archer 2005). Fertilization of the biosphere affects the distribution of the fossil fuel carbon among these reservoirs, at least on the short run, but it does not alter the fact that the fossil carbon will remain in these reservoirs for millennia. Figure 6. Figure 6. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions and carbon content (1 ppm atmospheric CO2~2.12 GtC). Historical emissions are from Boden et al (2012). Estimated reserves and potentially recoverable resources are based on energy content values of Energy Information Administration (EIA 2011), German Advisory Council (GAC 2011), and Global Energy Assessment (GEA 2012). We convert energy content to carbon content using emission factors of Table 4.2 of IPCC (2007) for coal, gas, and conventional oil, and, following IPCC, we use an emission factor of unconventional oil the same as that for coal. Humanity, so far, has burned only a small portion (purple area in figure 6) of total fossil fuel reserves and resources. Yet deleterious effects of warming are apparent (IPCC 2007), even though only about half of the warming due to gases now in the air has appeared, the remainder still 'in the pipeline' due to the inertia of the climate system (Hansen et al 2011). Already it seems difficult to avoid passing the 'guardrail' of no more than 2 °C global warming that was agreed in the Copenhagen Accord of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 2010). And Hansen et al (2008), based primarily on paleoclimate data and evidence of deleterious climate impacts already at 385 ppm CO2, concluded that an appropriate initial target for CO2 was 350 ppm, which implied a global temperature limit, relative to 1880-1920 of about 1 °C. What is clear is that most of the remaining fossil fuels must be left in the ground if we are to avoid dangerous human-made interference with climate. The principal implication of our present analysis probably relates to the Faustian bargain. Increased short-term masking of greenhouse gas warming by fossil fuel particulate and nitrogen pollution represents a 'doubling down' of the Faustian bargain, an increase in the stakes. The more we allow the Faustian debt to build, the more unmanageable the eventual consequences will be. Yet globally there are plans to build more than 1000 coal-fired power plants (Yang and Cui 2012) and plans to develop some of the dirtiest oil sources on the planet (EIA 2011). These plans should be vigorously resisted. We are already in a deep hole—it is time to stop digging. Acknowledgments We thank ClimateWorks, Energy Foundation, Gerry Lenfest (Lenfest Foundation), Lee Wasserman (Rockefeller Family Foundation), and Stephen Toben (Flora Family Foundation) for research and communications support. References Archer D 2005 Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time J. Geophys. Res. 110 C09505 Archer D, Buffett B and Brovkin V 2009 Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 106 20596-601 Ballantyne A P, Alden C B, Miller J B, Tans P P and White J W C 2012 Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years Nature 488 70-- Boden T A, Marland G and Andres R J 2012 Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (Oak Ridge, TN: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy) doi:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2012 BP (British Petroleum) 2012 Statistical Review of World Energy 2012 (www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481) Chavez F P et al 1999 Biological and chemical response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean to the 1997-1998 El Nino Science 286 2126-31 Cipolla C L 2009 Modeling production and evaluating fracture performance in unconventional gas reservoirs J. Petrol. 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Geophys. 33 403-39 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2000 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) ed N Nakicenovic et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 599 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis ed J T Houghton et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 881 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) p 996 Keeling C D, Whorf T P, Wahlen M and van der Plicht J 1973 Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980 Nature 375 666-70 Knorr W 2009 Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L21710 Koven C D et al 2011 Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerte global warming Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108 14769-74 Kurz W A et al 2008 Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change Nature 452 987-90 Le Quéré C et al 2007 Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Science 316 1735-8 Lewis S L, Brando P M, Phillips O L, van der Heijden G M F and Nepstad D 2011 The 2010 Amazon drought Science 331 554 Lu Z, Zhang Q and Streets D G 2011 Sulfur dioxide and primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China and India, 1996-2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11 9839-64 Lu Z et al 2010 Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000 Atmos. Chem Phys. 10 6311-31 Magnani F et al 2007 The human footprint in the carbon cycle of temperate and boreal forests Nature 447 848-50 Magnani F et al 2008 Magnani et al. reply Nature 451 E28-9 Malhi Y 2010 The carbon balance of tropical forest regions, 1990-2005 Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2 237-44 Matson P, Lohse K A and Hall S J 2002 The globalization of nitrogen deposition: consequences for terrestrial ecosystems AMBIO 31 113-9 Mercado L M et al 2009 Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink Nature 458 1014-7 Mishchenko M I et al 2007 Accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance: introducing the Glory mission Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88 677-91 Murphy D M et al 2009 An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950 J. Geophys. Res. 114 D17107 Piao S et al 2008 Net carbon dioxide losses of northern ecosystems in response to autumn warming Nature 451 49-52 Rahmstorf S, Foster G and Cazenave A 2012 Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044035 Rothenberg D et al 2012 Volcano impacts on climate and biogeochemistry in a coupled carbon-climate model Earth Syst. Dyn. Discuss. 3 279-323 Sarmiento J L et al 2010 Trends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks Biogeosciences 7 2351-67 Schuster U and Watson A J 2007 A variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic J. Geophys. Res. 112 C11006 Schwalm C R et al 2011 Does terrestrial drought explain global CO2 flux anomalies induced by El Nino? Biogeosciences 8 2493-506 Simpson I J et al 2012 Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane Nature 488 490-4 Solomon S et al 2011 The persistently variable 'background' stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change Science 333 866-70 Thornton P E et al 2009 Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model Biogeosciences 6 2099-120 Tian H Z et al 2010 Trend and characteristics of atmospheric emissions of Hg, As, and Se from coal combustion in China, 1980-2007 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 11905-19 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) 2010 Copenhagen Accord (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf, accessed 25 Nov. 2012) van Donkelaar A et al 2008 Analysis of aircraft and satellite measurements from Interconinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B) to quantify long-range transport of East Asian sulfur to Canada Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8 2999-3014 Watson A J 1997 Volcanic iron, CO2, ocean productivity and climate Nature 385 587-8 Yang A and Cui Y 2012 Global coal risk assessment: data analysis and market research WRI Working Paper (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute) (www.wri.org/publication/global-coal-risk-assessment) Zhao M and Running S W 2010 Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009 Science 329 940-3

The Potential for Methane Isotopologue Channels in GOSAT-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malina, Edward; Yoshida, Yukio; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Muller, Jan-Peter

2017-04-01

Of the major Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) currently considered as having a major impact on atmospheric chemistry, Methane is amongst the most important (IPCC, 2014). Methane concentration in the atmosphere has been documented to be rising steadily over the past century, aside from an unexplained short period in the middle of the last decade (Heimann., 2011), leading to renewed efforts to understand global atmospheric Methane. Atmospheric Methane is primarily composed of two key isotopologues, 12CH4 and 13CH4, which have a natural abundance of about 98% and 1.1% respectively. It is a well-established fact that different sources of Methane (i.e. biogenic sources such as methanogens, or non-biogenic such as industrial hydrocarbon burning) vary in the abundance of these isotopologues (Etiope, 2009). The global identification of the ratios of these isotopologues could vastly increase knowledge of global Methane sources, and shed some light on global Methane growth. GOSAT-2 due to be launched in 2018 is a follow on from the original GOSAT mission launched in 2009. GOSAT-2 aims to continue the legacy of GOSAT by providing global measurements of Methane and Carbon Dioxide on a global basis in order to monitor GHG emissions. GOSAT-2 in the context of this study has a significant advantage over GOSAT, which is the extension of the sensitivity of band 3 to 2330nm from 2080nm where significant numbers of Methane spectral lines are located. In this study we apply the well-established Information Content (IC) analysis techniques originally proposed by Rodgers (2000) to determine the potential benefit of retrieving total column Methane isotopologue concentrations assuming bands 2 and 3 of the GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS-2 instrument. The value of such studies has been proven on multiple occasions and can provide guidance on appropriate potential retrieval setups. Due to the fact that there has been limited research in this area, no 'a priori' state vectors or Variance Covariance Matrices (VCMs) appropriate for isotopologues have been defined previously, we therefore test a number VCMs in order to explore the constraints on retrieving independent information in the total column based on the IC analysis. This analysis and VCM variations also provide the opportunity to explore the potential errors associated with retrievals of isotopologues. Based on this study we will comment on the feasibility of Methane isotopologues retrieval with GOSAT-2 under a range of atmospheric conditions, instrument geometry and VCM setups, as well as the errors associated with these conditions. References: Etiope, G. (2009) 'Natural emissions of methane from geological seepage in Europe', Atmospheric Environment, 43(7), pp. 1430-1443. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.03.014. Heimann, M. (2011) 'Atmospheric science: Enigma of the recent methane budget', Nature, 476(7359), pp. 157-158. doi: 10.1038/476157a. IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available online: https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/ Rodgers, C.D. (2000) Inverse methods for atmospheric sounding: Theory and practice. Singapore, Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Company.

Deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions associated with fuelwood consumption of the brick making industry in Sudan.

PubMed

Alam, Syed Ashraful; Starr, Mike

2009-01-01

The study focuses on the role of the fired clay brick making industry (BMI) on deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Sudan. The BMI is based on numerous kilns that use biomass fuel, mainly wood which is largely harvested unsustainably. This results in potential deforestation and land degradation. Fuelwood consumption data was collected using interviews and questionnaires from 25 BMI enterprises in three administrative regions, namely Khartoum, Kassala and Gezira. Annual fuelwood consumption data (t dm yr(-1)) was converted into harvested biomass (m(3)) using a wood density value of 0.65 t dm m(-3). For annual GHG estimations, the methodological approach outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used. According to our results, the annual deforestation associated with the BMI for the whole of Sudan is 508.4x10(3) m(3) of wood biomass, including 267.6x10(3) m(3) round wood and 240.8x10(3) m(3) branches and small trees. Total GHG emissions from the Sudanese BMI are estimated at 378028 t CO(2), 15554 t CO, 1778 t CH(4), 442 t NO(X), 288 t NO and 12 t N(2)O per annum. The combined CO(2)-equivalent (global warming potential for 100-year time horizon) of the GHG emissions (excluding NO(X) and NO) is 455666 t yr(-1). While these emissions form only a small part of Sudan's total GHG emissions, the associated deforestation and land degradation is of concern and effort should be made for greater use of sustainable forest resources and management.

The uncertain climate footprint of wetlands under human pressure

PubMed Central

Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana; Lohila, Annalea; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Roulet, Nigel T.; Vesala, Timo; Dolman, Albertus Johannes; Oechel, Walter C.; Marcolla, Barbara; Friborg, Thomas; Rinne, Janne; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; Merbold, Lutz; Meijide, Ana; Kiely, Gerard; Sottocornola, Matteo; Sachs, Torsten; Zona, Donatella; Varlagin, Andrej; Lai, Derrick Y. F.; Veenendaal, Elmar; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Skiba, Ute; Lund, Magnus; Hensen, Arjan; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Shurpali, Narasinha J.; Grünwald, Thomas; Humphreys, Elyn R.; Jackowicz-Korczyński, Marcin; Aurela, Mika A.; Laurila, Tuomas; Grüning, Carsten; Corradi, Chiara A. R.; Schrier-Uijl, Arina P.; Christensen, Torben R.; Tamstorf, Mikkel P.; Mastepanov, Mikhail; Martikainen, Pertti J.; Verma, Shashi B.; Bernhofer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2015-01-01

Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon–temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the “cost” of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse–response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange. PMID:25831506

The uncertain climate footprint of wetlands under human pressure.

PubMed

Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana; Lohila, Annalea; Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka; Baldocchi, Dennis D; Desai, Ankur R; Roulet, Nigel T; Vesala, Timo; Dolman, Albertus Johannes; Oechel, Walter C; Marcolla, Barbara; Friborg, Thomas; Rinne, Janne; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; Merbold, Lutz; Meijide, Ana; Kiely, Gerard; Sottocornola, Matteo; Sachs, Torsten; Zona, Donatella; Varlagin, Andrej; Lai, Derrick Y F; Veenendaal, Elmar; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W; Skiba, Ute; Lund, Magnus; Hensen, Arjan; van Huissteden, Jacobus; Flanagan, Lawrence B; Shurpali, Narasinha J; Grünwald, Thomas; Humphreys, Elyn R; Jackowicz-Korczyński, Marcin; Aurela, Mika A; Laurila, Tuomas; Grüning, Carsten; Corradi, Chiara A R; Schrier-Uijl, Arina P; Christensen, Torben R; Tamstorf, Mikkel P; Mastepanov, Mikhail; Martikainen, Pertti J; Verma, Shashi B; Bernhofer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro

2015-04-14

Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon-temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the "cost" of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse-response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

A review of uncertainty visualization within the IPCC reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Reusser, Dominik; Wrobel, Markus

2015-04-01

Results derived from climate model simulations confront non-expert users with a variety of uncertainties. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be communicated such that it can be easily understood, however, the complexity of the science behind is still incorporated. With respect to the assessment reports of the IPCC, the situation is even more complicated, because heterogeneous sources and multiple types of uncertainties need to be compiled together. Within this work, we systematically (1) analyzed the visual representation of uncertainties in the IPCC AR4 and AR5 reports, and (2) executed a questionnaire to evaluate how different user groups such as decision-makers and teachers understand these uncertainty visualizations. Within the first step, we classified visual uncertainty metaphors for spatial, temporal and abstract representations. As a result, we clearly identified a high complexity of the IPCC visualizations compared to standard presentation graphics, sometimes even integrating two or more uncertainty classes / measures together with the "certain" (mean) information. Further we identified complex written uncertainty explanations within image captions even within the "summary reports for policy makers". In the second step, based on these observations, we designed a questionnaire to investigate how non-climate experts understand these visual representations of uncertainties, how visual uncertainty coding might hinder the perception of the "non-uncertain" data, and if alternatives for certain IPCC visualizations exist. Within the talk/poster, we will present first results from this questionnaire. Summarizing, we identified a clear trend towards complex images within the latest IPCC reports, with a tendency to incorporate as much as possible information into the visual representations, resulting in proprietary, non-standard graphic representations that are not necessarily easy to comprehend on one glimpse. We conclude that further translation is required to (visually) present the IPCC results to non-experts, providing tailored static and interactive visualization solutions for different user groups.

The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazeau, Frédéric; Quiblier, Christophe; Jansen, Jeroen M.; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Middelburg, Jack J.; Heip, Carlo H. R.

2007-04-01

Ocean acidification resulting from human emissions of carbon dioxide has already lowered and will further lower surface ocean pH. The consequent decrease in calcium carbonate saturation potentially threatens calcareous marine organisms. Here, we demonstrate that the calcification rates of the edible mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) decline linearly with increasing pCO2. Mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25 and 10%, respectively, by the end of the century, following the IPCC IS92a scenario (~740 ppmv in 2100). Moreover, mussels dissolve at pCO2 values exceeding a threshold value of ~1800 ppmv. As these two species are important ecosystem engineers in coastal ecosystems and represent a large part of worldwide aquaculture production, the predicted decrease of calcification in response to ocean acidification will probably have an impact on coastal biodiversity and ecosystem functioning as well as potentially lead to significant economic loss.

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P. L.; Knowlton, K.; Rosenthal, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2003-12-01

Outdoor air pollution remains a serious public health problem in cities throughout the world. In the US, despite considerable progress in reducing emissions over the past 30 years, as many as 50,000 premature deaths each year have been attributed to airborne particulate matter alone. Tropospheric ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality and hospitalization rates, and with a variety of related respiratory problems. Weather plays an important role in the transport and transformation of air pollution. In particular, a warming climate is likely to promote the atmospheric reactions that are responsible for ozone and secondary aerosol production, as well as increasing emissions of many of their volatile precursors. Increasingly, efforts to address urban air pollution problems throughout the world will be complicated by trends and variability in climate. The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) is developing and applying tools for integrated assessment of health impacts from air pollution and heat associated with climate and land-use changes in the New York City metropolitan region. Global climate change is modeled over the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GCM). Meteorological fields are downscaled to a 36 km grid over the eastern US using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model. MM5 results are then used as input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality, with emissions based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). To date, simulations have been performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2050s. An evaluation of the present-day climate and air quality predictions indicates that the modeling system largely captures the observed climate-ozone system. Analysis of future-year predictions shows an increase in temperature and humidity as well as mean and extreme ozone concentrations under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. To address public health impacts, a risk assessment framework is used to estimate ozone-related mortality in the region, with a focus on comparing health impact estimates for the 1990s versus the 2050s. This endpoint represents a potentially appreciable public health impact resulting from climate change-induced alterations in regional air quality profiles. Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature describing ozone-mortality relationships are used to estimate numbers of regional deaths in a typical 1990s summer and a typical 2050s summer. Preliminary analysis of future-year ozone-related mortality suggests a subtle increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New York region in the 2050s as compared to the 1990s. A parallel evaluation of heat-related mortality in a typical summer of the 2050s suggests a greater relative increase as compared to the 1990s, with a doubling to tripling of regional summer heat deaths possible by the 2050s.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

Trends and Patterns in a New Time Series of Natural and Anthropogenic Methane Emissions, 1980-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.; Bruhwiler, L.; Themelis, N. J.

2007-12-01

We report on a new time series of methane (CH4) emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources developed for a multi-decadal methane modeling study (see following presentation by Bruhwiler et al.). The emission series extends from 1980 through the early 2000s with annual emissions for all countries has several features distinct from the source histories based on IPCC methods typically employed in modeling the global methane cycle. Fossil fuel emissions rely on 7 fuel-process emission combinations and minimize reliance on highly-uncertain emission factors. Emissions from ruminant animals employ regional profiles of bovine populations that account for the influence of variable age- and size-demographics on emissions and are ~15% lower than other estimates. Waste-related emissions are developed using an approach that avoids using of data-poor emission factors and accounts for impacts of recycling and thermal treatment of waste on diverting material from landfills and CH4 capture at landfill facilities. Emissions from irrigated rice use rice-harvest areas under 3 water-management systems and a new historical data set that analyzes multiple sources for trends in water management since 1980. A time series of emissions from natural wetlands was developed by applying a multiple-regression model derived from full process-based model of Walter with analyzed meteorology from the ERA-40 reanalysis.

A New High-Resolution N2O Emission Inventory for China in 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Z.; Zhou, F.; Ciais, P.; Tao, S.; Piao, S.; Raymond, P. A.; He, C.; Li, B.; Wang, R.; Wang, X.; Peng, S.; Zeng, Z.; Chen, H.; Ying, N.; Hou, X.; Xu, P.

2014-12-01

The amount and geographic distribution of N2O emissions over China remain largely uncertain. Most of existing emission inventories use uniform emission factors (EFs) and the associated parameters and apply spatial proxies to downscale national or provincial data, resulting in the introduction of spatial bias. In this study, county-level and 0.1° × 0.1° gridded anthropogenic N2O emission inventories for China (PKU-N2O) in 2008 are developed based on high-resolution activity data and regional EFs and parameters. These new estimates are compared with estimates from EDGAR v4.2, GAINS-China, National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC), and with two sensitivity tests: one that uses high-resolution activity data but the default IPCC methodology (S1) and the other that uses regional EFs and parameters but starts from coarser-resolution activity data. The total N2O emissions are 2150 GgN2O/yr (interquartile range from 1174 to 2787 GgN2O/yr). Agriculture contributes 64% of the total, followed by energy (17%), indirect emissions (12%), wastes (5%), industry (2.8%), and wildfires (0.2%). Our national emission total is 17% greater than that of the EDGAR v4.2 global product sampled over China and is also greater than the GAINS-China, NDRC, and S1 estimates by 10%, 50%, and 17%, respectively. We also found that using uniform EFs and parameters or starting from national/provincial data causes systematic spatial biases compared to PKU-N2O. In addition, the considerable differences between the relative contributions of the six sectors across the six Agro-Climate Zones primarily reflect the different distributions of industrial activities and land use. Eastern China (8.7% area of China) is the largest contributor of N2O emissions and accounts for nearly 25% of the total. Spatial analysis also shows nonlinear relationships between N2O emission intensities and urbanization. Per-capita and per-GDP N2O emissions increase gradually with an increase in the urban population fraction from 0.3 to 0.9 among 2884 counties, and N2O emission density increases with urban expansion. Moreover, additional experiments and the use of a reliable data-driven approach or process-based models can improve the spatial resolution and reduce the uncertainties in PKU-N2O, especially from agricultural soils and manure management.

Global assessment of the effect of climate change on ammonia emissions from seabirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Blackall, Trevor D.; Tomlinson, Sam J.; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Hallsworth, Stephen; Braban, Christine F.; Tang, Y. Sim; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-07-01

Seabird colonies alter the biogeochemistry of nearby ecosystems, while the associated emissions of ammonia (NH3) may cause acidification and eutrophication of finely balanced biomes. To examine the possible effects of future climate change on the magnitude and distribution of seabird NH3 emissions globally, a global seabird database was used as input to the GUANO model, a dynamic mass-flow process-based model that simulates NH3 losses from seabird colonies at an hourly resolution in relation to environmental conditions. Ammonia emissions calculated by the GUANO model were in close agreement with measured NH3 emissions across a wide range of climates. For the year 2010, the total global seabird NH3 emission is estimated at 82 [37-127] Gg year-1. This is less than previously estimated using a simple temperature-dependent empirical model, mainly due to inclusion of nitrogen wash-off from colonies during precipitation events in the GUANO model. High precipitation, especially between 40° and 60° S, results in total emissions for the penguin species that are 82% smaller than previously estimated, while for species found in dry tropical areas, emissions are 83-133% larger. Application of temperature anomalies for several IPCC scenarios for 2099 in the GUANO model indicated a predicted net increase in global seabird NH3 emissions of 27% (B1 scenario) and 39% (A2 scenario), compared with the 2010 estimates. At individual colonies, the net change was the result of influences of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity change, with smaller effects of wind-speed changes. The largest increases in NH3 emissions (mean: 60% [486 to -50] increase; A2 scenario for 2099 compared with 2010) were found for colonies 40°S to 65°N, and may lead to increased plant growth and decreased biodiversity by eliminating nitrogen sensitive plant species. Only 7% of the seabird colonies assessed globally (mainly limited to the sub-polar Southern Ocean) were estimated to experience a reduction in NH3 emission (average: -18% [-50 to 0] reduction between 2010 and 2099, A2 scenario), where an increase in precipitation was found to more than offset the effect of rising temperatures.

Impacts of the Minamata Convention for Mercury Emissions from Coal-fired Power Generation in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giang, A.; Stokes, L. C.; Streets, D. G.; Corbitt, E. S.; Selin, N. E.

2014-12-01

We explore the potential implications of the recently signed United Nations Minamata Convention on Mercury for emissions from coal-fired power generation in Asia, and the impacts of these emissions changes on deposition of mercury worldwide by 2050. We use qualitative interviews, document analysis, and engineering analysis to create plausible technology scenarios consistent with the Convention, taking into account both technological and political factors. We translate these scenarios into possible emissions inventories for 2050, based on IPCC development scenarios, and then use the GEOS-Chem global transport model to evaluate the effect of these different technology choices on mercury deposition over geographic regions and oceans. We find that China is most likely to address mercury control through co-benefits from technologies for SO2, NOx, and particulate matter (PM) capture that will be required to attain its existing air quality goals. In contrast, India is likely to focus on improvements to plant efficiency such as upgrading boilers, and coal washing. Compared to current technologies, we project that these changes will result in emissions decreases of approximately 140 and 190 Mg/yr for China and India respectively in 2050, under an A1B development scenario. With these emissions reductions, simulated average gross deposition over India and China are reduced by approximately 10 and 3 μg/m2/yr respectively, and the global average concentration of total gaseous mercury (TGM) is reduced by approximately 10% in the Northern hemisphere. Stricter, but technologically feasible, requirements for mercury control in both countries could lead to an additional 200 Mg/yr of emissions reductions. Modeled differences in concentration and deposition patterns between technology suites are due to differences in both the mercury removal efficiency of technologies and their resulting stack speciation.

Effect of watershed urbanization on N2O emissions from the Chongqing metropolitan river network, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yixin; Wang, Xiaofeng; Chen, Huai; Yuan, Xingzhong; Wu, Ning; Zhang, Yuewei; Yue, Junsheng; Zhang, Qiaoyong; Diao, Yuanbin; Zhou, Lilei

2017-12-01

Watershed urbanization, an integrated anthropogenic perturbation, is another considerable global concern in addition to that of global warming and may significantly enrich the N loadings of watersheds, which then greatly influences the nitrous oxide (N2O) production and fluxes of these aquatic systems. However, little is known about the N2O dynamics in human-dominated metropolitan river networks. In this study, we present the temporal and spatial variations in N2O saturation and emission in the Chongqing metropolitan river network, which is undergoing intensified urbanization. The N2O saturation and fluxes at 84 sampling sites ranged from 126% to 10536% and from 4.5 to 1566.8 μmol N2O m-2 d-1, with means of 1780% and 261 μmol N2O m-2 d-1. The riverine N2O saturation and fluxes increased along with the urbanization gradient and urbanization rate, with disproportionately higher values in urban rivers due to the N2O-rich sewage inputs and enriched in situ N substrates. We found a clear seasonal pattern of N2O saturation, which was co-regulated by both water temperature and precipitation. Regression analysis indicated that the N substrates and dissolved oxygen (DO) that controlled nitrogen metabolism acted as good predictors of the N2O emissions of urban river networks. Particularly, phosphorus (P) and hydromorphological factors (water velocity, river size and bottom substrate) had stronger relationships with the N2O saturation and could also be used to predict the N2O emission hotspots in regions with rapid urbanization. In addition, the default emission factors (EF5-r) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodology may need revision given the differences among the physical and chemical factors in different rivers, especially urban rivers.

Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

2011-12-01

Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

CH4 and N2O Emissions from Rice Paddy Soils in Vietnam - Identifying Regional Hotspots and Quantifying the Total Emission Strength using a Biogeochemical Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, C.; Kraus, D.; Mai, T. V.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.

2016-12-01

Agriculture is the economic backbone for over two thirds of Vietnam's population, providing food security, employment and income. However, agriculture in Vietnam is challenged by climate change and climate extremes and at the same time, agriculture remains a key source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first bi-annual update report (BUR1), published in 2014 indicated that while the proportion of GHG emissions from agriculture had fallen from 43.1% to 33.2% from 2000 to 2010, the emission total increased from 65.1 mio to 88.4 mio t CO2e. Reducing GHG emissions from agriculture has thus become a key issue within the national strategy of GHG emission management. Here we present first data using IPCC Tier 3 modeling for quantifying the source strength of rice based crop systems for CH4 and N2O. We used LandscapeDNDC and linked it to a newly developed spatial landuse and land management database (climate, soil properties, and detailed field management data). Site application showed good agreement of simulated biomass, yield and GHG emissions with field observations, providing confidence for model use at national scale. Our results also show good agreement with national yield data and total annual emissions of the simulated period (2006-2015) ranged from 1060 - 1502 kt CH4 and 6.2 - 7.7 kt N2O, respectively. The dominating emission hotspot for CH4 is the Mekong Delta region with its double and triple rice cropping systems (819 kt CH4/yr, Fig. 1). With regard to N2O, emission hotspots have been identified to be closely related to regions with high fertilizer use and single to double rice cropping systems (Fig. 1). Though, our emission estimates are likely representing the best of current knowledge on national GHG emissions from rice based systems in Vietnam, the uncertainty is significant as information on rice system management remains vague. Sensitivity studies show that changes in field management affecting the soil organic carbon dynamics (duration of flooding, stubble amounts and fraction tilled or manure application) can lead to substantial differences in emission rates. In a next step we plan to explore mitigation options such as Alternative Wetting and Drying for reducing national GHG emissions from the agricultural sector and to identify regions which are most suitable and most promising in terms of GHG reduction.

Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United States in future summertime PM2.5 pollution. Therefore, it is important to consider the relative contributions of emissions scenarios, climate conditions, and LRT to the major PM2.5 components in future U.S. air quality regulation.

Towards the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.

2016-12-01

The IPCC, set up in 1988 by WMO and UNEP, is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. The reports of the IPCC include Assessments, Synthesis and Special Reports (and their Summaries for Policymakers), as well as Methodological Reports, providing policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. These assessments are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, and based on the assessment of the published literature. The assessments of the IPCC follow precise procedures to ensure that they provide a rigorous and balanced scientific information. Particularly critical is the volunteer involvment of tens of scientists involved in the scoping of each report, as well as the work of hundreds of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors of reports, with the complementary expertise of hundreds of sollicited Contributing Authors. The review process plays a key role in the open and transparent process underlying the IPCC reports. It is organized in multiple rounds and mobilizes thousands of other experts, a process monitored by Review Editors. The author teams develop rigorous methodologies to report the degree of confidence associated with each finding and report information with uncertainty. As a result, successive IPCC reports provide regular steps to determine matured climate science, through robust findings, but also emerging research pathways, and facilitate science maturation through analyses of multiple perspectives provided by the scientific literature in a comprehensive approach. While the IPCC does not conduct its own scientific research, the timeline of the IPCC reports acts as a stimulation for the research community, especially for internationally coordinated research programmes associated with global climate projections. These aspects will be developed in this presentation, with a focus on Working Group I (the physical science basis), and the 6th Assessment Report (AR6). For more information, see : www.ipcc.ch For new special reports planned in 2018-2019 : http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml For the strategic planning schedule for the AR6 : http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/pdf/ar6_WSPSchedule_07072016.pdf

Multi-gas and multi-source comparisons of six land use emission datasets and AFOLU estimates in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics for 2000-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Rosenstock, Todd S.; Houghton, Richard A.; Rossi, Simone; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Ogle, Stephen; Poulter, Benjamin; Verchot, Louis; Martius, Christopher; de Bruin, Sytze

2016-10-01

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributes with ca. 20-25 % of global anthropogenic emissions (2010), making it a key component of any climate change mitigation strategy. AFOLU estimates, however, remain highly uncertain, jeopardizing the mitigation effectiveness of this sector. Comparisons of global AFOLU emissions have shown divergences of up to 25 %, urging for improved understanding of the reasons behind these differences. Here we compare a variety of AFOLU emission datasets and estimates given in the Fifth Assessment Report for the tropics (2000-2005) to identify plausible explanations for the differences in (i) aggregated gross AFOLU emissions, and (ii) disaggregated emissions by sources and gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). We also aim to (iii) identify countries with low agreement among AFOLU datasets to navigate research efforts. The datasets are FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Statistics Division), EDGAR (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research), the newly developed AFOLU "Hotspots", "Houghton", "Baccini", and EPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) datasets. Aggregated gross emissions were similar for all databases for the AFOLU sector: 8.2 (5.5-12.2), 8.4, and 8.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr-1 (for Hotspots, FAOSTAT, and EDGAR respectively), forests reached 6.0 (3.8-10), 5.9, 5.9, and 5.4 Pg CO2 eq. yr-1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and Houghton), and agricultural sectors were with 1.9 (1.5-2.5), 2.5, 2.1, and 2.0 Pg CO2 eq. yr-1 (Hotspots, FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA). However, this agreement was lost when disaggregating the emissions by sources, continents, and gases, particularly for the forest sector, with fire leading the differences. Agricultural emissions were more homogeneous, especially from livestock, while those from croplands were the most diverse. CO2 showed the largest differences among the datasets. Cropland soils and enteric fermentation led to the smaller N2O and CH4 differences. Disagreements are explained by differences in conceptual frameworks (carbon-only vs. multi-gas assessments, definitions, land use vs. land cover, etc.), in methods (tiers, scales, compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, legacies, etc.) and in assumptions (carbon neutrality of certain emissions, instantaneous emissions release, etc.) which call for more complete and transparent documentation for all the available datasets. An enhanced dialogue between the carbon (CO2) and the AFOLU (multi-gas) communities is needed to reduce discrepancies of land use estimates.

Environmental analysis of sunflower production with different forms of mineral nitrogen fertilizers.

PubMed

Spinelli, D; Bardi, L; Fierro, A; Jez, S; Basosi, R

2013-11-15

Environmental profiles of mineral nitrogen fertilizers were used to evaluate the environmental disturbances related to their use in cultivation systems in Europe. Since the production of mineral fertilizers requires a large amount of energy, the present study of bioenergy systems is relevant in order to achieve crop yields less dependent on fossil fuels and to reduce the environmental impact due to fertilization. In this study, the suitability of the LCA methodology to analyze the environmental impact of sunflower cultivation systems with different forms of mineral nitrogen fertilizers urea and ammonium nitrate was investigated. Effects on climate change were estimated by the use of Ecoinvent 2.2 database default value for soil N2O emission factor (1%) and local emission data (0.8%) of mineral nitrogen applied to soils. LCA analysis showed a higher impact on environmental categories (human health and ecosystem quality) for the system in which urea was used as a nitrogen source. Use of urea fertilizer showed a higher impact on resource consumption due to fossil fuel consumption. Use of mineral nitrogen fertilizers showed a higher environmental burden than other inputs required for sunflower cultivation systems under study. Urea and ammonium nitrate showed, respectively, a 7.8% and 4.9% reduced impact of N2O as greenhouse gas by using direct field data of soil N2O emission factor compared to the default soil emission factor of 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Use of ammonium nitrate as mineral nitrogen fertilizer in sunflower cultivation would have a lower impact on environmental categories considered. Further environmental analysis of available technologies for fertilizer production might be also evaluated in order to reduce the environmental impacts of each fertilizer. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Annual dynamics of N2O, CH4 and CO2 fluxes from the agricultural irrigation watersheds in southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, S.; Zou, J.; Liu, S.; Chen, J.; Kong, D.; Geng, Y.

2017-12-01

Agricultural irrigation watershed covers a large area in southeast of China and is a potentially important source of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, the flux magnitudes contribution to the overall catchment greenhouse gas (GHGs) fluxes and their drivers of seasonal variability are limited in agricultural irrigation watersheds. An in-situ observation was performed to measure annual CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes from an agricultural irrigation watershed in southeast of China from September 2014 to September 2016. GHGs fluxes were measured using floating chambers and a gas exchange model was also used to predict CH4 and N2O fluxes. All GHGs showed varied seasonally with highest fluxes in early summer (July) and lowest in winter. Estimated seasonal CH4-C fluxes (11.5-97.6 mg m-2 hr-1) and N2O-N fluxes (2.8-80.8μg m-2 hr-1) were in relative agreement with measured CH4-C fluxes (0.05-74.9mg m-2 hr-1) and N2O-N fluxes (3.9-68.7μg m-2 hr-1) fluxes using floating chambers. Both CH4 and N2O fluxes were positively related to water temperature. The CH4 fluxes were negatively related to water dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration but positively related to sediment dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The N2O fluxes were positively related to water NH4+ and NO3-. The calculated EF5-r value in this study (mean = 0.0016; range = 0.0013-0.0018) was below the current IPCC (2006) default value of 0.0025. This implied that IPCC methodology may over estimates of N2O emissions associated with nitrogen leaching and runoff from agriculture.

Intra-operative peritoneal lavage for colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Passot, Guillaume; Mohkam, Kayvan; Cotte, Eddy; Glehen, Olivier

2014-01-01

Free cancer cells can be detected in peritoneal fluid at the time of colorectal surgery. Peritoneal lavage in colorectal surgery for cancer is not used in routine, and the prognostic significance of intraperitoneal free cancer cells (IPCC) remains unclear. Data concerning the technique of peritoneal lavage to detect IPCC and its timing regarding colorectal resection are scarce. However, positive IPCC might be the first step of peritoneal spread in colorectal cancers, which could lead to early specific treatments. Because of the important heterogeneity of IPCC determination in reported studies, no treatment have been proposed to patients with positive IPCC. Herein, we provide an overview of IPCC detection and its impact on recurrence and survival, and we suggest further multi-institutional studies to evaluate new treatment strategies. PMID:24616569

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, K. M.

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

[Driving forces of carbon emission from energy consumption in China old industrial cities: a case study of Shenyang City, Northeast China].

PubMed

Ren, Wan-Xia; Geng, Yong; Xue, Bing

2012-10-01

To quantitatively analyze the effects of anthropogenic factors on regional environmental quality is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development research. Taking the typical old industrial city Shenyang in Northeast China as a case, and by using the IPCC method for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption, this paper estimated the carbon emission from energy consumption in the city in 1978-2009, and a time series analysis on the anthropogenic factors driving this carbon emission was made by the STIRPAT model based upon Kaya equation and ridge regression. In 1978-2009, the carbon emission in the city had a slow increase first, slow decrease then, and a rapid increase thereafter. The total carbon emission in 2009 was 4.6 times of that in 1978. Population growth was the main factor driving the growth of the emission, and there existed an equal-proportional variation between the population growth and the carbon emission growth. Urbanization was another main driving factor followed by population growth, and the per capita GDP was positively correlated with the carbon emission. Kuznets curve did not exist for the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in Shenyang. Energy source intensity reduction (representing technology improvement) was the main factor driving the reduction of the total carbon emission.

Restoring Tides to Avoid Methane Emissions in Degraded Wetlands: A Potent and Untapped Climate Intervention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroeger, K. D.; Crooks, S.; Moseman-Valtierra, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

To date, activity related to carbon (C) management in coastal marine ecosystems (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon") has been concerned primarily with preserving existing C stocks or creating new wetlands to increase CO2 uptake and sequestration. Here we show that the globally-widespread occurrence of hydrologically-altered, degraded wetlands, and associated enhanced GHG emissions, presents an opportunity to reduce an anthropogenic GHG emission through restoration. We model the climatic forcing associated with carbon sinks in natural wetlands and with GHG emissions in altered and degraded wetlands, as well as compile geographic data on tidal restrictions to show that substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of saline tidal flows in diked, impounded and tidally-restricted coastal wetlands. Despite high rates of carbon storage in coastal ecosystems, tidal restoration has dramatically greater potential per unit area as a climate intervention than most other ecosystem management actions. We argue that such emissions reductions represent avoided anthropogenic emissions, equivalent in concept to reduced fossil fuel emissions. Once the emissions have been avoided, the benefit of that action cannot be eliminated, even if emissions resume in the future due to degradation of the ecosystem. The avoided emissions therefore have inherent "permanence", obviating concerns associated with vulnerability of C stocks in land-use based interventions that enhance C sequestration in wood or soil. Further, emissions reductions are likely to be rapid, and given the high radiative efficiency of avoided CH4, wetland tidal restorations can provide near-term climate benefit. The U.S. has recently initiated an effort to include coastal wetlands in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, and the analysis presented here indicates that tidally restricted wetlands meet the primary criteria for inventoried ecosystems in that they are managed landscapes, with substantial emissions and sinks. If other countries ultimately follow suit, then inclusion of these emissions in the U.S. Inventory will promote widespread recognition and management of the issue, and justify development of CH4 EF for tidal restrictions in IPCC guidance for GHG inventories.

Using a traffic simulation model (VISSIM) with an emissions model (MOVES) to predict emissions from vehicles on a limited-access highway.

PubMed

Abou-Senna, Hatem; Radwan, Essam; Westerlund, Kurt; Cooper, C David

2013-07-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that baseline global GHG emissions may increase 25-90% from 2000 to 2030, with carbon dioxide (CO2 emissions growing 40-110% over the same period. On-road vehicles are a major source of CO2 emissions in all the developed countries, and in many of the developing countries in the world. Similarly, several criteria air pollutants are associated with transportation, for example, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and particulate matter (PM). Therefore, the need to accurately quantify transportation-related emissions from vehicles is essential. The new US. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mobile source emissions model, MOVES2010a (MOVES), can estimate vehicle emissions on a second-by-second basis, creating the opportunity to combine a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES to obtain accurate results. This paper presents an examination of four different approaches to capture the environmental impacts of vehicular operations on a 10-mile stretch of Interstate 4 (I-4), an urban limited-access highway in Orlando, FL. First (at the most basic level), emissions were estimated for the entire 10-mile section "by hand" using one average traffic volume and average speed. Then three advanced levels of detail were studied using VISSIM/MOVES to analyze smaller links: average speeds and volumes (AVG), second-by-second link drive schedules (LDS), and second-by-second operating mode distributions (OPMODE). This paper analyzes how the various approaches affect predicted emissions of CO, NO(x), PM2.5, PM10, and CO2. The results demonstrate that obtaining precise and comprehensive operating mode distributions on a second-by-second basis provides more accurate emission estimates. Specifically, emission rates are highly sensitive to stop-and-go traffic and the associated driving cycles of acceleration, deceleration, and idling. Using the AVG or LDS approach may overestimate or underestimate emissions, respectively, compared to an operating mode distribution approach. Transportation agencies and researchers in the past have estimated emissions using one average speed and volume on a long stretch of roadway. With MOVES, there is an opportunity for higher precision and accuracy. Integrating a microscopic traffic simulation model (such as VISSIM) with MOVES allows one to obtain precise and accurate emissions estimates. The proposed emission rate estimation process also can be extended to gridded emissions for ozone modeling, or to localized air quality dispersion modeling, where temporal and spatial resolution of emissions is essential to predict the concentration of pollutants near roadways.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gelfand, Ilya; Shcherbak, Iurii; Millar, Neville

Differences in soil nitrous oxide (N 2O) fluxes among ecosystems are often difficult to evaluate and predict due to high spatial and temporal variabilities and few direct experimental comparisons. For 20 years, we measured N 2O fluxes in 11 ecosystems in southwest Michigan USA: four annual grain crops (corn–soybean–wheat rotations) managed with conventional, no-till, reduced input, or biologically based/organic inputs; three perennial crops (alfalfa, poplar, and conifers); and four unmanaged ecosystems of different successional age including mature forest. Average N 2O emissions were higher from annual grain and N-fixing cropping systems than from nonleguminous perennial cropping systems and were low across unmanaged ecosystems. Among annual cropping systems full-rotation fluxes were indistinguishable from one another but rotation phase mattered. For example, those systems with cover crops and reduced fertilizer N emitted more N 2O during the corn and soybean phases, but during the wheat phase fluxes were ~40% lower. Likewise, no-till did not differ from conventional tillage over the entire rotation but reduced emissions ~20% in the wheat phase and increased emissions 30–80% in the corn and soybean phases. Greenhouse gas intensity for the annual crops (flux per unit yield) was lowest for soybeans produced under conventional management, while for the 11 other crop 9 management combinations intensities were similar to one another. Among the fertilized systems, emissions ranged from 0.30 to 1.33 kg N 2O-N ha -1 yr -1 and were best predicted by IPCC Tier 1 and DEF emission factor approaches. Annual cumulative fluxes from perennial systems were best explained by soil NOmore » $$-\\atop{3}$$ pools (r 2 = 0.72) but not so for annual crops, where management differences overrode simple correlations. Daily soil N 2O emissions were poorly predicted by any measured variables. Overall, long-term measurements reveal lower fluxes in nonlegume perennial vegetation and, for conservatively fertilized annual crops, the overriding influence of rotation phase on annual fluxes.« less

Greenhouse gas emissions from the enteric fermentation and manure storage of dairy and beef cattle in China during 1961-2010.

PubMed

Gao, Zhiling; Lin, Zhi; Yang, Yuanyuan; Ma, Wenqi; Liao, Wenhua; Li, Jianguo; Cao, Yufeng; Roelcke, Marco

2014-11-01

Due to the expanding dairy and beef population in China and their contribution to global CH4 and N2O budgets, a framework considering changes in feed, manure management and herd structure was established to indicate the trends of CH4 and N2O emissions from the enteric formation and manure storage in China׳s beef and dairy production and the underlying driving forces during the period 1961-2010. From 1961 to 2010, annual CH4 and N2O emissions from beef cattle in China increased from 2.18Mt to 5.86Mt and from 7.93kt-29.56kt, respectively, while those from dairy cattle increased from 0.023 to 1.09Mt and 0.12 to 7.90kt, respectively. These increases were attributed to the combined changes in cattle population and management practices in feeds and manure storage. Improvement in cattle genetics during the period increased the bodyweight, required dry matter intake and gross energy and thus resulted in increased enteric CH4 EFs for each category of beef and dairy cattle as well as the overall enteric EFs (i.e., Tier 1 in IPCC). However, for beef cattle, such an impact on the overall enteric EFs was largely offset by the herd structure transition from draft animal-oriented to meat animal-oriented during 1961-2010. Although the CO2-eq of CH4 and N2O from manure storage was less than the enteric emissions during 1961-2010 in China, it tended to increase both in beef and dairy cattle, which was mainly driven by the changes in manure management practices. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Inpatient Palliative Care Consultation for Patients With Advanced Cancer.

PubMed

Sharma, Rashmi K; Cameron, Kenzie A; Chmiel, Joan S; Von Roenn, Jamie H; Szmuilowicz, Eytan; Prigerson, Holly G; Penedo, Frank J

2015-11-10

Inpatient palliative care consultation (IPCC) may help address barriers that limit the use of hospice and the receipt of symptom-focused care for racial/ethnic minorities, yet little is known about disparities in the rates of IPCC. We evaluated the association between race/ethnicity and rates of IPCC for patients with advanced cancer. Patients with metastatic cancer who were hospitalized between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010, at an urban academic medical center participated in the study. Patient-level multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/ethnicity and IPCC. A total of 6,288 patients (69% non-Hispanic white, 19% African American, and 6% Hispanic) were eligible. Of these patients, 16% of whites, 22% of African Americans, and 20% of Hispanics had an IPCC (overall P < .001). Compared with whites, African Americans had a greater likelihood of receiving an IPCC (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.44), even after adjusting for insurance, hospitalizations, marital status, and illness severity. Among patients who received an IPCC, African Americans had a higher median number of days from IPCC to death compared with whites (25 v 17 days; P = .006), and were more likely than Hispanics (59% v 41%; P = .006), but not whites, to be referred to hospice. Inpatient settings may neutralize some racial/ethnic differences in access to hospice and palliative care services; however, irrespective of race/ethnicity, rates of IPCC remain low and occur close to death. Additional research is needed to identify interventions to improve access to palliative care in the hospital for all patients with advanced cancer. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Inpatient Palliative Care Consultation for Patients With Advanced Cancer

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rashmi K.; Cameron, Kenzie A.; Chmiel, Joan S.; Von Roenn, Jamie H.; Szmuilowicz, Eytan; Prigerson, Holly G.; Penedo, Frank J.

2015-01-01

Purpose Inpatient palliative care consultation (IPCC) may help address barriers that limit the use of hospice and the receipt of symptom-focused care for racial/ethnic minorities, yet little is known about disparities in the rates of IPCC. We evaluated the association between race/ethnicity and rates of IPCC for patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods Patients with metastatic cancer who were hospitalized between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010, at an urban academic medical center participated in the study. Patient-level multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/ethnicity and IPCC. Results A total of 6,288 patients (69% non-Hispanic white, 19% African American, and 6% Hispanic) were eligible. Of these patients, 16% of whites, 22% of African Americans, and 20% of Hispanics had an IPCC (overall P < .001). Compared with whites, African Americans had a greater likelihood of receiving an IPCC (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.44), even after adjusting for insurance, hospitalizations, marital status, and illness severity. Among patients who received an IPCC, African Americans had a higher median number of days from IPCC to death compared with whites (25 v 17 days; P = .006), and were more likely than Hispanics (59% v 41%; P = .006), but not whites, to be referred to hospice. Conclusion Inpatient settings may neutralize some racial/ethnic differences in access to hospice and palliative care services; however, irrespective of race/ethnicity, rates of IPCC remain low and occur close to death. Additional research is needed to identify interventions to improve access to palliative care in the hospital for all patients with advanced cancer. PMID:26324373

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

2005-09-01

In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model studies of the effects of these emissions on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on climate. The developed scenarios are suitable for use as input for chemical transport models (CTMs) and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

An original experiment to determine impact of catch crop introduction in a crop rotation on N2O production fate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallec, Tiphaine; Le Dantec, Valérie; Zawilski, Bartosz; Brut, Aurore; Boussac, Marion; Ferlicoq, Morgan; Ceschia, Eric

2015-04-01

The raise in N2O concentration from the preindustrial era (280 ppb) to nowadays (324 ppb) is estimated to account for approximately 6% of the predicted global warming (IPCC 2014). Worldwide, soils are considered to be the dominant source of N2O, releasing an estimated 9.5 Tg N2O-N y-1 (65% of global N2O emissions), of which 36.8% are estimated to originate from agricultural soils (IPCC 2001). Most N2O originating from agricultural soils is a by- or end-product of nitrification or denitrification. The fate of N2O produced by microbiological processes in the subsoil is controlled by biotic (crop species, occurring soil organic matter, human pressure via mineral and organic nitrogen fertilisation) and abiotic (environmental conditions such as temperature, soil moisture, pH, etc.) factors. In cropland, contrary to forest and grassland, long bare soil periods can occurred between winter and summer crops with a high level of mineral (fertilizer) and organic (residues) nitrogen remaining in the soil, causing important emissions of carbon and nitrogen induced by microbial activities. Introduction of catch crop has been identified as an important mitigation option to reduce environmental impact of crops mainly thanks to their ability to increase CO2 fixation, to decrease mineral nitrogen lixiviation and also reduce the potential fate of N2O production. Uncertainty also remains about the impact of released mineral nitrogen coming from crushed catch crop on N2O production if summer crop seedling and mineral nitrogen release are not well synchronized. To verify those assumptions, a unique paired-plot experiment was carried in the south-west of France from September 2013 to august 2014 to test impact of management change on N2O budget and production dynamic. A crop plot was divided into two subplots, one receiving a catch crop (mustard), the other one remaining conventionally managed (bare-soil during winter). This set-up allowed avoiding climate effect. Each subplot was equipped to measure environmental parameters and N2O fluxes. Nitrous oxide fluxes were measured using six stainless steel automatic chambers coupled with an infra red gas analyzer every 6 hours. We first analyzed N2O flux rates obtained between the two treatments and then we quantified the impact of temperature and soil moisture on their daily and seasonal variations.

Promoting long-term survival of insulin-producing cell grafts that differentiate from adipose tissue-derived stem cells to cure type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuzi; Dai, Hehua; Wan, Ni; Moore, Yolonda; Dai, Zhenhua

2011-01-01

Insulin-producing cell clusters (IPCCs) have recently been generated in vitro from adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs) to circumvent islet shortage. However, it is unknown how long they can survive upon transplantation, whether they are eventually rejected by recipients, and how their long-term survival can be induced to permanently cure type 1 diabetes. IPCC graft survival is critical for their clinical application and this issue must be systematically addressed prior to their in-depth clinical trials. Here we found that IPCC grafts that differentiated from murine ASCs in vitro, unlike their freshly isolated islet counterparts, did not survive long-term in syngeneic mice, suggesting that ASC-derived IPCCs have intrinsic survival disadvantage over freshly isolated islets. Indeed, β cells retrieved from IPCC syngrafts underwent faster apoptosis than their islet counterparts. However, blocking both Fas and TNF receptor death pathways inhibited their apoptosis and restored their long-term survival in syngeneic recipients. Furthermore, blocking CD40-CD154 costimulation and Fas/TNF signaling induced long-term IPCC allograft survival in overwhelming majority of recipients. Importantly, Fas-deficient IPCC allografts exhibited certain immune privilege and enjoyed long-term survival in diabetic NOD mice in the presence of CD28/CD40 joint blockade while their islet counterparts failed to do so. Long-term survival of ASC-derived IPCC syngeneic grafts requires blocking Fas and TNF death pathways, whereas blocking both death pathways and CD28/CD40 costimulation is needed for long-term IPCC allograft survival in diabetic NOD mice. Our studies have important clinical implications for treating type 1 diabetes via ASC-derived IPCC transplantation. © 2011 Zhang et al.

Promoting Long-Term Survival of Insulin-Producing Cell Grafts That Differentiate from Adipose Tissue-Derived Stem Cells to Cure Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shuzi; Dai, Hehua; Wan, Ni; Moore, Yolonda; Dai, Zhenhua

2011-01-01

Background Insulin-producing cell clusters (IPCCs) have recently been generated in vitro from adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs) to circumvent islet shortage. However, it is unknown how long they can survive upon transplantation, whether they are eventually rejected by recipients, and how their long-term survival can be induced to permanently cure type 1 diabetes. IPCC graft survival is critical for their clinical application and this issue must be systematically addressed prior to their in-depth clinical trials. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we found that IPCC grafts that differentiated from murine ASCs in vitro, unlike their freshly isolated islet counterparts, did not survive long-term in syngeneic mice, suggesting that ASC-derived IPCCs have intrinsic survival disadvantage over freshly isolated islets. Indeed, β cells retrieved from IPCC syngrafts underwent faster apoptosis than their islet counterparts. However, blocking both Fas and TNF receptor death pathways inhibited their apoptosis and restored their long-term survival in syngeneic recipients. Furthermore, blocking CD40-CD154 costimulation and Fas/TNF signaling induced long-term IPCC allograft survival in overwhelming majority of recipients. Importantly, Fas-deficient IPCC allografts exhibited certain immune privilege and enjoyed long-term survival in diabetic NOD mice in the presence of CD28/CD40 joint blockade while their islet counterparts failed to do so. Conclusions/Significance Long-term survival of ASC-derived IPCC syngeneic grafts requires blocking Fas and TNF death pathways, whereas blocking both death pathways and CD28/CD40 costimulation is needed for long-term IPCC allograft survival in diabetic NOD mice. Our studies have important clinical implications for treating type 1 diabetes via ASC-derived IPCC transplantation. PMID:22216347

Primary VOC emissions from Commercial Aircraft Jet Engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilic, Dogushan; Huang, Rujin; Slowik, Jay; Brem, Benjamin; Durdina, Lukas; Rindlisbacher, Theo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prevot, Andre

2014-05-01

Air traffic is growing continuously [1]. The increasing number of airplanes leads to an increase of aviation emissions giving rise to environmental concerns globally by high altitude emissions and, locally on air quality at the ground level [2]. The overall impact of aviation emissions on the environment is likely to increase when the growing air transportation trend [2] is considered. The Aviation Particle Regulatory Instrumentation Demonstration Experiment (APRIDE)-5 campaign took place at Zurich Airport in 2013. In this campaign, aircraft exhaust is sampled during engine acceptance tests after engine overhaul at the facilities of SR Technics. Direct sampling from the engine core is made possible due to the unique fixed installation of a retractable sampling probe and the use of a standardized sampling system designed for the new particulate matter regulation in development for aircraft engines. Many of the gas-phase aircraft emissions, e.g. CO2, NOX, CO, SO2, hydrocarbons, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) were detected by the instruments in use. This study, part of the APRIDE-5 campaign, focuses on the primary VOC emissions in order to produce emission factors of VOC species for varying engine operating conditions which are the surrogates for the flight cycles. Previously, aircraft plumes were sampled in order to quantify VOCs by a proton transfer reaction quadrupole mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) [3]. This earlier study provided a preliminary knowledge on the emission of species such as methanol, acetaldehyde, acetone, benzene and toluene by varying engine thrust levels. The new setup was (i) designed to sample from the diluted engine exhaust and the new tool and (ii) used a high resolution time of flight PTR-MS with higher accuracy for many new species, therefore providing a more detailed and accurate inventory. We will present the emission factors for species that were quantified previously, as well as for many additional VOCs detected during the campaign. References 1."Annual Review 2013", International Air Transport Association (IATA) 2014, Page 8, available on: http://www.iata.org/about/Documents/iata-annual-review-2013-en.pdf. 2."Summary for Policymakers: IPCC Special Report Aviation and the Global Atmosphere", 1999, pp. 5-10. 3."Hydrocarbon emissions from in-use commercial aircraft during airport operations", Herndon S.C., Rogers T., Dunlea E.J., Jayne J.T., Miake-Lye R., Knighton B., Environ Sci. Technol. 2006 Jul 15;40(14):4406-13.

First Continuous High Frequency in Situ Measurements of CO2 and CH4 in Rwanda Using Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy, and Preliminary Results of Regional Emission Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasore, J.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Recent IPCC reports emphasize the lack of ground measurements of greenhouse gases on the African continent, despite Africa's significant emissions from agriculture and biomass burning as well as ongoing land use changes. We have established a greenhouse gas monitoring station in northern Rwanda that will be part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), a global network of high frequency long-term remote atmospheric measurement stations. Using a Picarro G2401 cavity ring-down analyzer, continuous measurements of CO2, CH4, and CO at a frequency of five seconds are being captured at this equatorial East African site. The measurement site is located near the Virunga mountains, a volcanic range in North-West Rwanda, on the summit of Mt. Mugogo (2507 m above sea level). Mt. Mugogo is located in a rural area 70km away from Kigali, the capital of Rwanda, and about 13km from the nearest town. From HYSPLIT 7-day back-trajectory calculations, we have determined that the station measures air masses originating from East and Central Africa, the Indian Ocean and occasionally from Southern Asia. Here we present the first greenhouse gas measurement data from this understudied location in Africa. We also present preliminary results of regional CO2 and CH4emissions estimation from this unique dataset, using the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) lagrangian particle dispersion model.

Evaluation of modelled methane emissions over northern peatland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yao; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah; Raivonen, Maarit; Susiluoto, Jouni; Vesala, Timo; Aurela, Mika; Lohila, Annalea; Aalto, Tuula

2017-04-01

Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, with approximately 34 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide (CO2) over a century time horizon (IPCC, 2013). The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. Evaluation of the ability of the process-based land surface models of earth system models (ESMs) in simulating CH4 emission over peatland is needed for more precise future predictions. In this study, two peatland sites of poor and rich soil nutrient conditions, in southern and northern Finland respectively, are adopted. The measured CH4 fluxes at the two sites are used to evaluate the CH4 emissions simulated by the land surface model (JULES) of the UK Earth System model and by the Helsinki peatland methane emission model (HIMMELI), which is developed at Finnish Meteorological Institute and Helsinki University. In JULES, CH4 flux is simply related to soil temperature, wetland fraction and effective substrate availability. However, HIMMELI has detailed descriptions of microbial and transport processes for simulating CH4 flux. The seasonal dynamics of CH4 fluxes at the two sites are relatively well captured by both models, but model biases exist. Simulated CH4 flux is sensitive to water table depth (WTD) at both models. However, the simulated WTD is limited to be below ground in JULES. It is also important to have the annual cycle of LAI correct when coupling JULES with HIMMELI.

A life-cycle approach to technology, infrastructure, and climate policy decision making: Transitioning to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and low-carbon electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, Constantine

In order to mitigate the most severe effects of climate change, large global reductions in the current levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are required in this century to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at less than double pre-industrial levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report states that GHG emissions should be reduced to 50-80% of 2000 levels by 2050 to increase the likelihood of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In order to achieve the large GHG reductions by 2050 recommended by the IPCC, a fundamental shift and evolution will be required in the energy system. Because the electric power and transportation sectors represent the largest GHG emissions sources in the United States, a unique opportunity for coupling these systems via electrified transportation could achieve synergistic environmental (GHG emissions reductions) and energy security (petroleum displacement) benefits. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which use electricity from the grid to power a portion of travel, could play a major role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, this thesis finds that life cycle GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the electricity source that is used to charge the battery, so meaningful GHG emissions reductions with PHEVs are conditional on low-carbon electricity sources. Power plants and their associated GHGs are long-lived, and this work argues that decisions made regarding new electricity supplies within the next ten years will affect the potential of PHEVs to play a role in a low-carbon future in the coming decades. This thesis investigates the life cycle engineering, economic, and policy decisions involved in transitioning to PHEVs and low-carbon electricity. The government has a vast array of policy options to promote low-carbon technologies, some of which have proven to be more successful than others. This thesis uses life cycle assessment to evaluate options and opportunities for large GHG reductions from plug-in hybrids. After the options and uncertainties are framed, engineering economic analysis is used to evaluate the policy actions required for adoption of PHEVs at scale and the implications for low-carbon electricity investments. A logistic PHEV adoption model is constructed to parameterize implications for low-carbon electricity infrastructure investments and climate policy. This thesis concludes with an examination of what lessons can be learned for climate, innovation, and low-carbon energy policies from the evolution of wind power from an emerging alternative energy technology to a utility-scale power source. Policies to promote PHEVs and other emerging energy technologies can take lessons learned from the successes and challenges of wind power's development to optimize low-carbon energy policy and R&D programs going forward. The need for integrated climate policy, energy policy, sustainability, and urban mobility solutions will accelerate in the next two decades as concerns regarding GHG emissions and petroleum resources continue to be environmental and economic priorities. To assist in informing the discussions on climate policy and low-carbon energy R&D, this research and its methods will provide stakeholders in government and industry with plug-in hybrid and energy policy choices based on life cycle assessment, engineering economics, and systems analysis.

Estimating the Contrail Impact on Climate Using the UK Met Office Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.

2008-12-01

With air travel predicted to increase over the coming century, the emissions associated with air traffic are expected to have a significant warming effect on climate. According to current best estimates, an important contribution comes from contrails. However, as reported by the IPCC fourth assessment report, these current best estimates still have a high uncertainty. The development and validation of contrail parameterizations in global climate models is therefore very important. This current study develops a contrail parameterization within the UK Met Office Climate Model. Using this new parameterization, we estimate that for the 2002 traffic, the global mean annual contrail coverage is approximately 0.11%, a value which in good agreement with several other estimates. The corresponding contrail radiative forcing (RF) is calculated to be approximately 4 and 6 mWm-2 in all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. These values lie within the lower end of the RF range reported by the latest IPCC assessment. The relatively high cloud masking effect on contrails observed by our parameterization compared with other studies is investigated, and a possible cause for this difference is suggested. The effect of the diurnal variations of air traffic on both contrail coverage and contrail RF is also investigated. The new parameterization is also employed in thirty-year slab-ocean model runs in order to give one of the first insights into contrail effects on daily temperature range and the climate impact of contrails.

Methane oxidation by termite mounds estimated by the carbon isotopic composition of methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugimoto, Atsuko; Inoue, Tetsushi; Kirtibutr, Nit; Abe, Takuya

1998-12-01

Emission rates and carbon isotope ratios of CH4, emitted by workers of termites, and of CH4, emitted from their mounds, were observed in a dry evergreen forest in Thailand to estimate the proportion of CH4 oxidized during emission through the mound. The δ13C of CH4 emitted from a termite mound (-70.9 to -82.4‰) was higher than that of CH4 emitted by workers in the mound (-85.4 to -97. l‰). Using a fractionation factor (a = 0.987) for oxidation of CH4 which was obtained in the incubation experiment, an emission factor defined as (CH4 emitted from a termite mound/CH4 produced by termites) was calculated. The emission factor obtained in each termite mound was nearly zero for Macrotermes (fungus-growing termites), of which the nest has a thick soil wall and subterrannean termites, and 0.17 to 0.47 for Termitinae (small-mound-making termites). Global CH4 emission by termites was estimated on the basis of the CH4 emission rates by workers and termite biomass with the emission factors. The calculated result was 1.5 to 7.4 Tg/y (0.3 to 1.3% of total source), which is considerably smaller than the estimate by the IPCC [1994].

Modeled nitrous oxide emissions from corn fields in iowa based on county level data.

PubMed

Jarecki, Marek K; Hatfield, Jerry L; Barbour, Wiley

2015-03-01

The U.S. Corn Belt area has the capacity to generate high nitrous oxide (NO) emissions due to medium to high annual precipitation, medium- to heavy-textured soils rich in organic matter, and high nitrogen (N) application rates. The purpose of this work was to estimate NO emissions from cornfields in Iowa at the county level using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model and to compare the DNDC NO emission estimates with available results from field experiments. All data were acquired for 2007 to 2011. Weather Underground Network and the Iowa State University Iowa Soil Properties and Interpretation Database 7.3 were the data sources for DNDC inputs and for computing county soil parameters. The National Agriculture Statistic Service 5-yr averages for corn yield data were used to establish ex post fertilizer N input at the county level. The DNDC output suggested county-wide NO emissions in Iowa ranged from 2.2 kg NO-N ha yr in south-central to 4.6 to 4.7 kg NO-N ha yr in north-central and eastern Iowa counties. In northern districts, the average direct NO emissions were 3.2, 4.4, and 3.6 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. In central districts, average NO emissions were 3.5, 3.9, and 3.4 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. For southern districts, NO emissions were 3.5, 2.6, and 3.1 kg NO-N ha yr for west, central, and east, respectively. Direct NO emissions estimated by the DNDC model were 1.93% of N fertilizer input to corn fields in Iowa, with values ranging from 1.66% in the northwest cropping district to 2.25% in the north-central cropping district. These values are higher than the average 1% loss rate used in the IPCC Tier 1 approach. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... time that they accept the overall report. Principles and procedures for the IPCC and its preparation of..._documents/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf (pdf) http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization_procedures.shtml In.... The following section of the report discusses risk management at the local, national and international...

Oil Production, The Price Crash and Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2015-12-01

World oil production increased to about 74 million barrels per day by January 2005, and was fairly constant until 2011 when it started to increase to 77.8 mb/d in 2014. This spectacular increase of 4 mb/d was almost entirely due to a sharp increase in production in the US from shale formations, called light tight oil (LTO). World oil production minus this increase in US LTO Production has been flat since 2005 at about 74 mb/d. When US production starts to decline, world oil production likely will as well. That surge is forecast to end soon because LTO is expensive to produce, the first year decline rates are extremely high requiring many new wells each year to maintain or increase production and the most productive locations have already been drilled. It is unprofitable for the Exploration and Production (E&P) companies. Full-year free cash flow has been negative for most tight oil E&P companies since 2009. The total negative cash flow for the 19 largest E&P companies totaled 10.5B in 2014. The surge in US LTO production created an imbalance in global supply and demand and resulted in a 50% decrease in the price of oil. The tight-oil producers who were are financially marginal at an oil price greater than 90 per barrel are even more so at the lower price. As a result the surge in US production of LTO is declining, making it unlikely that world oil production will exceed the present value of about 28 Gb/yr (equivalent to 75 mb/d) (175 EJ/yr). Many of the SRES (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios) and RCP (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways) projections (especially RCP 8.5 and 6) require CO2 emissions due to oil consumption in the range of 32 Gb/yr to 57 Gb/yr (200 to 350 EJ/yr). The higher values would require a doubling of world oil production. It is highly uncertain whether the higher CO2 scenarios will be reached. This is an element of uncertainty missing from most considerations of future climate change.

Modelling uncertainties in the climate of the last millennium: the ASTER project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loutre, M. F.; Mouchet, A.; Fichefet, T.; Goosse, H.; Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P.

2009-04-01

The LOVECLIM model (Driesschaert et al., 2007; Goosse et al., 2007) is used to simulate the climate of the last millennium with several ‘climate' parameter sets yielding different sensitivities of the climate and the carbon cycle model. The purpose of these simulations is twofold. We intend to assess first the role of the carbon cycle on the climate, and second, the ability of the different selected parameter sets to drive the model within the range of the observed climate, and further to assess the uncertainty related to these parameters. The high frequency variability of the forcings is taken into account. For each set of parameters, LOVECLIM is driven by the natural evolution of insolation, solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosol concentrations due to volcanic activity as well as by changes caused by human activities such as deforestation, CO2 emission or concentration changes, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases other than CO2 (including ozone) and in sulphate aerosol load. Several transient experiments are conducted for each parameter set. A first transient simulation (Conc) is forced with reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentration. In the next two simulations, the emissions of carbon were taken into account, the model computing the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration. First (EMIS), the emissions due both to the land use changes and the fossil fuel burning are provided. Second (Efor), only the emissions from fossil fuel burning are provided in addition to the vegetation change related to deforestation. The Northern Hemisphere annual mean temperatures simulated by the model according to the different parameter sets and carbon cycle sensitivities and the different experimental setups do not show striking differences compared to the NH temperature recontructions (IPCC, 2007). However, the simulated values are generally in the lower range of the reconstructions in the interval 900-1200 AD. Moreover some experiments are displaying a too large warming during the last century as well as a large variability occasionally out of the range of observation. The increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration over the last century is strongly depending on how the anthropogenic emission and the land-use scenario are taken into account. Difference in atmospheric CO2 concentration can reach up to 50 ppmv. All the parameter sets are not able to reproduce the decreasing trend of the Arctic summer sea ice as recorded over the last decades. Parameter sets corresponding to the largest climate sensitivity lead to a strong reduction of the summer sea ice. However, different scenarios for deforestation lead to significantly different time evolution of the NH Summer sea ice area for the same parameter set. The ocean C storage remains within the range of estimates when CO2 is prescribed. However, values are much larger when both fossil fuel and land cover change emission are prescribed. The deforestation emissions as computed by the model lead to intermediate cumulative CO2 fluxes to the atmosphere. Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., Goosse H., Huybrechts P., Janssens I., Mouchet A., Munhoven G., Brovkin V., and Weber S. L., 2007. Modelling the influence of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the next millennia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34:L1070, 2007. Goosse H., Driesschaert E., Fichefet T., and Loutre M.F., 2007. Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century Clim. Past 3, 683-692. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

[Energy policy rather than climate policy].

PubMed

Kroonenberg, Salomon B

2009-01-01

Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy.

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, D.

2008-12-01

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional analysis, for world coal production. For world oil and gas production, the fit for the ultimate is 640Gtoe (billion metric tons of oil equivalent). This is somewhat larger than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 580Gtoe. Because future discoveries are not included in the reserves, it is to be expected that our fit would be larger. On the other hand, there have been large increases in OPEC reserves that have not been subject to outside audit, so it is not clear how close the two numbers should be. For world coal, the sum of the fits for regional ultimate production is 660Gt (billion metric tons). This is considerably less than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 1,100Gt, but it is consistent with the British experience, where until recently, reserves were a large multiple of future production. The projection is that we will have consumed half of the ultimate world oil, gas, and coal production by 2019. This means that the current intense development of alternative sources of energy can be justified independently of climate considerations. When these projections are converted to carbon equivalents, the projected future emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal from 2005 on are 520GtC. The projected emissions for the 2005-2100 period are smaller than for any of the 40 SRES scenarios. This suggests that future scenarios should take exhaustion into account. These projections, if correct, are good news for climate change.

Gaseous emissions from management of solid waste: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Pardo, Guillermo; Moral, Raúl; Aguilera, Eduardo; del Prado, Agustín

2015-01-01

The establishment of sustainable soil waste management practices implies minimizing their environmental losses associated with climate change (greenhouse gases: GHGs) and ecosystems acidification (ammonia: NH3). Although a number of management strategies for solid waste management have been investigated to quantify nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) losses in relation to varied environmental and operational conditions, their overall effect is still uncertain. In this context, we have analyzed the current scientific information through a systematic review. We quantified the response of GHG emissions, NH3 emissions, and total N losses to different solid waste management strategies (conventional solid storage, turned composting, forced aerated composting, covering, compaction, addition/substitution of bulking agents and the use of additives). Our study is based on a meta-analysis of 50 research articles involving 304 observations. Our results indicated that improving the structure of the pile (waste or manure heap) via addition or substitution of certain bulking agents significantly reduced nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions by 53% and 71%, respectively. Turned composting systems, unlike forced aerated composted systems, showed potential for reducing GHGs (N2O: 50% and CH4: 71%). Bulking agents and both composting systems involved a certain degree of pollution swapping as they significantly promoted NH3 emissions by 35%, 54%, and 121% for bulking agents, turned and forced aerated composting, respectively. Strategies based on the restriction of O2 supply, such as covering or compaction, did not show significant effects on reducing GHGs but substantially decreased NH3 emissions by 61% and 54% for covering and compaction, respectively. The use of specific additives significantly reduced NH3 losses by 69%. Our meta-analysis suggested that there is enough evidence to refine future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies from solid waste, especially for solid waste composting practices. More holistic and integrated approaches are therefore required to develop more sustainable solid waste management systems. PMID:25393229

Gaseous emissions from management of solid waste: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pardo, Guillermo; Moral, Raúl; Aguilera, Eduardo; Del Prado, Agustín

2015-03-01

The establishment of sustainable soil waste management practices implies minimizing their environmental losses associated with climate change (greenhouse gases: GHGs) and ecosystems acidification (ammonia: NH3 ). Although a number of management strategies for solid waste management have been investigated to quantify nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) losses in relation to varied environmental and operational conditions, their overall effect is still uncertain. In this context, we have analyzed the current scientific information through a systematic review. We quantified the response of GHG emissions, NH3 emissions, and total N losses to different solid waste management strategies (conventional solid storage, turned composting, forced aerated composting, covering, compaction, addition/substitution of bulking agents and the use of additives). Our study is based on a meta-analysis of 50 research articles involving 304 observations. Our results indicated that improving the structure of the pile (waste or manure heap) via addition or substitution of certain bulking agents significantly reduced nitrous oxide (N2 O) and methane (CH4 ) emissions by 53% and 71%, respectively. Turned composting systems, unlike forced aerated composted systems, showed potential for reducing GHGs (N2 O: 50% and CH4 : 71%). Bulking agents and both composting systems involved a certain degree of pollution swapping as they significantly promoted NH3 emissions by 35%, 54%, and 121% for bulking agents, turned and forced aerated composting, respectively. Strategies based on the restriction of O2 supply, such as covering or compaction, did not show significant effects on reducing GHGs but substantially decreased NH3 emissions by 61% and 54% for covering and compaction, respectively. The use of specific additives significantly reduced NH3 losses by 69%. Our meta-analysis suggested that there is enough evidence to refine future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) methodologies from solid waste, especially for solid waste composting practices. More holistic and integrated approaches are therefore required to develop more sustainable solid waste management systems. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New Approach in Modelling Indonesian Peat Fire Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, E. I.; Cochrane, M. A.; Saharjo, B.; Yokelson, R. J.; Stockwell, C.; Vetrita, Y.; Zhang, X.; Hagen, S. C.; Nurhayati, A. D.; Graham, L.

2017-12-01

Peat fires are a serious problem for Indonesia, producing devastating environmental effects and making the country the 3rd largest emitter of CO2. Extensive fires ravaged vast areas of peatlands in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Papua during the pronounced El-Nino of 2015, causing international concern when the resultant haze blanketed Indonesia and neighboring countries, severely impacting the health of millions of people. Our recent unprecedented in-situ studies of aerosol and gas emissions from 35 peat fires of varying depths near Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan have documented the range and variability of emissions from these major fires. We strongly suggest revisions to previously recommended IPPC's emission factors (EFs) from peat fires, notably: CO2 (-8%), CH4 (-55%), NH3 (-86%), and CO (+39%). Our findings clearly showed that Indonesian carbon equivalent measurements (100 years) might have been 19% less than what current IPCC emission factors indicate. The results also demonstrate the toxic air quality in the area with HCN, which is almost only emitted by biomass burning, accounting for 0.28% and the carcinogenic compound formaldehyde 0.04% of emissions. However, considerable variation in emissions may exist between peat fires of different Indonesian peat formations, illustrating the need for additional regional field emissions measurements for parameterizing peatland emissions models for all of Indonesia's major peatland areas. Through the continuous mutual research collaboration between the Indonesian and USA scientists, we will implement our standardized field-based analyses of fuels, hydrology, peat burning characteristics and fire emissions to characterize the three major Indonesian peatland formations across four study provinces (Central Kalimantan, Riau, Jambi and West Papua). We will provide spatial and temporal drivers of the modeled emissions and validate them at a national level using biomass burning emissions estimations derived from Visible/Infrared Imager and Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Multiple LiDAR datasets (2014, 2011, 2007) for Kalimantan will be used to quantify model accuracy, and new work will be undertaken to quantify uncertainty in our most recent LiDAR-based digital terrain model (DTM), further improving assessments of modelling errors.

From carbon sink to carbon source: extensive peat oxidation in insular Southeast Asia since 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miettinen, Jukka; Hooijer, Aljosja; Vernimmen, Ronald; Liew, Soo Chin; Page, Susan E.

2017-02-01

Tropical peatlands of the western part of insular Southeast Asia have experienced extensive land cover changes since 1990. Typically involving drainage, these land cover changes have resulted in increased peat oxidation in the upper peat profile. In this paper we provide current (2015) and cumulative carbon emissions estimates since 1990 from peat oxidation in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo, utilizing newly published peatland land cover information and the recently agreed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) peat oxidation emission values for tropical peatland areas. Our results highlight the change of one of the Earth’s most efficient long-term carbon sinks to a short-term emission source, with cumulative carbon emissions since 1990 estimated to have been in the order of 2.5 Gt C. Current (2015) levels of emissions are estimated at around 146 Mt C yr-1, with a range of 132-159 Mt C yr-1 depending on the selection of emissions factors for different land cover types. 44% (or 64 Mt C yr-1) of the emissions come from industrial plantations (mainly oil palm and Acacia pulpwood), followed by 34% (49 Mt C yr-1) of emissions from small-holder areas. Thus, altogether 78% of current peat oxidation emissions come from managed land cover types. Although based on the latest information, these estimates may still include considerable, yet currently unquantifiable, uncertainties (e.g. due to uncertainties in the extent of peatlands and drainage networks) which need to be focused on in future research. In comparison, fire induced carbon dioxide emissions over the past ten years for the entire equatorial Southeast Asia region have been estimated to average 122 Mt C yr-1 (www.globalfiredata.org/_index.html). The results emphasise that whilst reducing emissions from peat fires is important, urgent efforts are also needed to mitigate the constantly high level of emissions arising from peat drainage, regardless of fire occurrence.

Modeling and optimal design of CO2 Direct Air Capture systems in large arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadri Irani, Samaneh; Luzzatto-Fegiz, Paolo

2017-11-01

As noted by the 2014 IPCC report, while the rise in atmospheric CO2 would be slowed by emissions reductions, removing atmospheric CO2 is an important part of possible paths to climate stabilization. Direct Air Capture of CO2 with chemicals (DAC) is one of several proposed carbon capture technologies. There is an ongoing debate on whether DAC is an economically viable approach to alleviate climate change. In addition, like all air capture strategies, DAC is strongly constrained by the net-carbon problem, namely the need to control CO2 emissions associated with the capture process (for example, if DAC not powered by renewables). Research to date has focused on the chemistry and economics of individual DAC devices. However, the fluid mechanics of their large-scale deployment has not been examined in the literature, to the best of our knowledge. In this presentation, we develop a model for flow through an array of DAC devices, varying their lateral extent and their separation. We build on a recent theory of canopy flows, introducing terms for CO2 entrainment into the array boundary layer, and transport into the farm. In addition, we examine the possibility of driving flow passively by wind, thereby reducing energy consumption. The optimal operational design is established considering the total cost, drag force, energy consumption and total CO2 capture.

The Feasibility of Avoiding Future Climate Impacts: Results from the AVOID Programmes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, J. A.; Warren, R.; Arnell, N.; Buckle, S.

2014-12-01

The AVOID programme and its successor, AVOID2, have focused on answering three core questions: how do we characterise potentially dangerous climate change and impacts, which emissions pathways can avoid at least some of these impacts, and how feasible are the future reductions needed to significantly deviate from a business-as-usual future emissions pathway. The first AVOID project succeeded in providing the UK Government with evidence to inform its position on climate change. A key part of the work involved developing a range of global emissions pathways and estimating and understanding the corresponding global impacts. This made use of a combination of complex general circulation models, simple climate models, pattern-scaling and state-of-the art impacts models. The results characterise the range of avoidable impacts across the globe in several key sectors including river and coastal flooding, cooling and heating energy demand, crop productivity and aspects of biodiversity. The avoided impacts between a scenario compatible with a 4ºC global warming and one with a 2ºC global warming were found to be highly sector dependent and avoided fractions typically ranged between 20% and 70%. A further key aspect was characterising the magnitude of the uncertainty involved, which is found to be very large in some impact sectors although the avoided fraction appears a more robust metric. The AVOID2 programme began in 2014 and will provide results in the run up to the Paris CoP in 2015. This includes new post-IPCC 5th assessment evidence to inform the long-term climate goal, a more comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty ranges of feasible emission pathways compatible with the long-term goal and enhanced estimates of global impacts using the latest generation of impact models and scenarios.

Economic and policy implications of the cumulative carbon budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E. L.; Otto, A.; Hepburn, C.

2014-12-01

The importance of cumulative carbon emissions in determining long-term risks of climate change presents considerable challenges to policy makers. The traditional notion of "total CO2-equivalent emissions", which forms the backbone of agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the European Emissions Trading System, is fundamentally flawed. Measures to reduce short-lived climate pollutants benefit the current generation, while measures to reduce long-lived climate pollutants benefit future generations, so there is no sense in which they can ever be considered equivalent. Debates over the correct metric used to compute CO2-equivalence are thus entirely moot: both long-lived and short-lived emissions will need to be addressed if all generations are to be protected from dangerous climate change. As far as long-lived climate pollutants are concerned, the latest IPCC report highlights the overwhelming importance of carbon capture and storage in determining the cost of meeting the goal of limiting anthropogenic warming to two degrees. We will show that this importance arises directly from the cumulative carbon budget and the role of CCS as the technology of last resort before economic activity needs to be restricted to meet ambitious climate targets. It highlights the need to increase the rate of CCS deployment by orders of magnitude if the option of avoiding two degrees is to be retained. The difficulty of achieving this speed of deployment through conventional incentives and carbon-pricing mechanisms suggests a need for a much more direct mandatory approach. Despite their theoretical economic inefficiency, the success of recent regulatory measures in achieving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in jurisdictions such as the United States suggests an extension of the regulatory approach could be a more effective and politically acceptable means of achieving adequately rapid CCS deployment than conventional carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems.

[The climate debate: the facts].

PubMed

van den Broeke, Michiel R

2009-01-01

The first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appeared almost 20 years ago. Environmental contamination has a negative effect on the environment in which we live. However, the public at large is confused about the ins and outs of climate change. Managers, politicians, various kinds of advisors, scientists, so-called experts, sceptics and journalists have all taken it upon themselves to lead the debate. Whose task is it to ensure a sound discussion? Surely it is the IPCC's task. However, most politicians and many journalists, and even many scientists, do not take the trouble to read the entire IPCC report or parts of it. As a consequence, much nonsense is published and broadcast. An effective procedure to deal with the climate problem starts with a fair discussion of the scientific evidence. My advice is: just read the free IPCC report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ and click on 'WG I The Physical Science Basis'.

21st Century Carbon-Climate Change as Simulated by the Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, C.; Christian, J. R.; Arora, V.; Boer, G. J.; Denman, K. L.; Flato, G. M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Merryfield, W. J.; Lee, W. G.; Yang, D.

2009-12-01

The Canadian Earth System Model CanESM1 is a fully coupled climate/carbon-cycle model with prognostic ocean and terrestrial components. The model has been used to simulate the 1850-2000 climate using historical greenhouse gas emissions, and future climates using IPCC emission scenarios. Modelled globally averaged CO2 concentration, land and ocean carbon uptake compare well with observation-based values at year 2000, as do the annual cycle and latitudinal distribution of CO2, instilling confidence that the model is suitable for future projections of carbon cycle behaviour in a changing climate. Land use change emissions are calculated explicitly using an observation-based time series of fractional coverage of different plant functional types. A more complete description of the model may be found in Arora et al. (2009). Differences in the land-atmosphere CO2 flux from the present to the future period under the SRES A2 emissions scenario show an increase in land sinks by a factor of 7.5 globally, mostly the result of CO2 fertilization. By contrast, the magnitude of the global ocean CO2 sink increases by a factor of only 2.3 by 2100. Expressed as a fraction of total emissions, ocean carbon uptake decreases throughout the 2000-2100 period, while land carbon uptake increases until around 2050, then declines. The result is an increase in airborne CO2 fraction after the mid-21st century, reaching a value of 0.55 by 2100. The simulated decline in ocean carbon uptake over the 21st century occurs despite steadily rising atmospheric CO2. This behaviour is usually attributed to climate-induced changes in surface temperature and salinity that reduce CO2 solubility, and increasing ocean stratification that weakens the biological pump. However, ocean biological processes such as dinitrogen fixation and calcification may also play an important role. Although not well understood at present, improved parameterizations of these processes will increase confidence in projections of future trends in CO2 uptake.

The role of N2O derived from crop-based biofuels, and from agriculture in general, in Earth's climate

PubMed Central

Smith, Keith A.; Mosier, Arvin R.; Crutzen, Paul J.; Winiwarter, Wilfried

2012-01-01

In earlier work, we compared the amount of newly fixed nitrogen (N, as synthetic fertilizer and biologically fixed N) entering agricultural systems globally to the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O). We obtained an N2O emission factor (EF) of 3–5%, and applied it to biofuel production. For ‘first-generation’ biofuels, e.g. biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), that require N fertilizer, N2O from biofuel production could cause (depending on N uptake efficiency) as much or more global warming as that avoided by replacement of fossil fuel by the biofuel. Our subsequent calculations in a follow-up paper, using published life cycle analysis (LCA) models, led to broadly similar conclusions. The N2O EF applies to agricultural crops in general, not just to biofuel crops, and has made possible a top-down estimate of global emissions from agriculture. Independent modelling by another group using bottom-up IPCC inventory methodology has shown good agreement at the global scale with our top-down estimate. Work by Davidson showed that the rate of accumulation of N2O in the atmosphere in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries was greater than that predicted from agricultural inputs limited to fertilizer N and biologically fixed N (Davidson, E. A. 2009 Nat. Geosci. 2, 659–662.). However, by also including soil organic N mineralized following land-use change and NOx deposited from the atmosphere in our estimates of the reactive N entering the agricultural cycle, we have now obtained a good fit between the observed atmospheric N2O concentrations from 1860 to 2000 and those calculated on the basis of a 4 per cent EF for the reactive N. PMID:22451102

Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2014-12-01

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

Replacing Burning of Fossil Fuels with Solar Cell and Wind Energy: How Important and How Soon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partain, L., II; Hansen, R. T.; Hansen, S. F.; Bennett, D.; Newlands, A.

2016-12-01

The IPCC indicated that atmospheric CO2 rise should stop to control global climate change. CO2 is the longest lived, most problematic anthropogenic greenhouse emission from burning fossil fuel. For 2000 years atmospheric CO2 concentration remained 280 ppm until 1870, when it rose sharply and nonlinearly to 400 ppm, correlated with a 1oC global mean temperature rise. Antarctic ice core data for the past 400,000 years indicate, 80 ppm shifts in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with 10,000-30,000 year interglacial periods at 280 ppm, were between ice-age glacial periods of 75,000-100,000 years at 200 ppm. The last 12,000-year interglacial "Goldilocks" period so far spans 4 civilizations: 6000 years of Western, 4000-5000 years of Inca and Aztec and 7000-8000 years of Chinese civilizations. The UN-led 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal limiting temperature rise to 2oC to prevent devastating climate change. Unfortunately IPCC modeling found a substantial probability of a rise by 4oC or more should all current fossil fuels be burned by 2100. This would result in weather extremes, rising oceans, storm surges and temperatures where low-lying coastal regions, Pacific Islands and large equatorial regions of the world could become uninhabitable. By Swanson's Law, an empirical learning curve observation, solar cell production costs drop 50% for every 10X increase in their cumulative production. After 40 years and over 5 orders-of-magnitude cumulative production increase, solar cells currently provide over 1% of the world's electricity generating capacity at a cost competitive with electricity generated from burning fossil fuels. If their cumulative generating capacity keeps doubling every 2 years (similar to Moore's Law), energy equivalent to all the world's electricity generating capacity could be provided by solar cells by 2028. The variability of solar cell energy can be mitigated by combining it with wind power, storage, super grids, space mirrors, and demand response.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the enteric fermentation and manure storage of dairy and beef cattle in China during 1961–2010

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Zhiling, E-mail: zhilinggao@hotmail.com; Lin, Zhi; Yang, Yuanyuan

Due to the expanding dairy and beef population in China and their contribution to global CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O budgets, a framework considering changes in feed, manure management and herd structure was established to indicate the trends of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emissions from the enteric formation and manure storage in China's beef and dairy production and the underlying driving forces during the period 1961–2010. From 1961 to 2010, annual CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O emissions from beef cattle in China increased from 2.18 Mt to 5.86 Mt and from 7.93 kt–29.56 kt, respectively, while those from dairymore » cattle increased from 0.023 to 1.09 Mt and 0.12 to 7.90 kt, respectively. These increases were attributed to the combined changes in cattle population and management practices in feeds and manure storage. Improvement in cattle genetics during the period increased the bodyweight, required dry matter intake and gross energy and thus resulted in increased enteric CH{sub 4} EFs for each category of beef and dairy cattle as well as the overall enteric EFs (i.e., Tier 1 in IPCC). However, for beef cattle, such an impact on the overall enteric EFs was largely offset by the herd structure transition from draft animal-oriented to meat animal-oriented during 1961–2010. Although the CO{sub 2}-eq of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O from manure storage was less than the enteric emissions during 1961–2010 in China, it tended to increase both in beef and dairy cattle, which was mainly driven by the changes in manure management practices. - Highlights: • CH{sub 4} emissions dominated the CO{sub 2}-eq emissions from dairy and beef cattle in China. • Beef herd transition played an important role in CH{sub 4} emissions. • Changes of manure managements increased the manure EFs of CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O. • Manure contributed very less to the total CO{sub 2}-eq emissions but tended to grow.« less

Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

2016-08-01

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.

Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States forest service northern region, 1906-2010

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Global forests capture and store significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. When carbon is removed from forests through harvest, a portion of the harvested carbon is stored in wood products, often for many decades. The United States Forest Service (USFS) and other agencies are interested in accurately accounting for carbon flux associated with harvested wood products (HWP) to meet greenhouse gas monitoring commitments and climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This paper uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) production accounting approach and the California Forest Project Protocol (CFPP) to estimate HWP carbon storage from 1906 to 2010 for the USFS Northern Region, which includes forests in northern Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and eastern Washington. Results Based on the IPCC approach, carbon stocks in the HWP pool were increasing at one million megagrams of carbon (MgC) per year in the mid 1960s, with peak cumulative storage of 28 million MgC occurring in 1995. Net positive flux into the HWP pool over this period is primarily attributable to high harvest levels in the mid twentieth century. Harvest levels declined after 1970, resulting in less carbon entering the HWP pool. Since 1995, emissions from HWP at solid waste disposal sites have exceeded additions from harvesting, resulting in a decline in the total amount of carbon stored in the HWP pool. The CFPP approach shows a similar trend, with 100-year average carbon storage for each annual Northern Region harvest peaking in 1969 at 937,900 MgC, and fluctuating between 84,000 and 150,000 MgC over the last decade. Conclusions The Northern Region HWP pool is now in a period of negative net annual stock change because the decay of products harvested between 1906 and 2010 exceeds additions of carbon to the HWP pool through harvest. However, total forest carbon includes both HWP and ecosystem carbon, which may have increased over the study period. Though our emphasis is on the Northern Region, we provide a framework by which the IPCC and CFPP methods can be applied broadly at sub-national scales to other regions, land management units, or firms. PMID:22244260

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part II: Air quality projections and the interplay between emissions and climate change.

PubMed

Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

2018-07-01

In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the "Technology Driver Model" (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x  = NO + NO 2 ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM 2.5 ) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non-road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O 3 ) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NO x compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O 3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM 2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO 2 and O 3 , respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH 4 changes to dominate the increases in O 3 , while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM 2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NO x , and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH 3 , SO 2 , and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Northern African and Indian Precipitation at the end of the 21st Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H.

2008-12-01

As greenhouse warming continues there is growing concern about the future climate of both Africa, which is highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and India. Precipitation projections from the AOGCMs of the IPCC AR4 are relatively consistent over India, but not over northern Africa. Inconsistencies can be related to the model's inability to capture climate process correctly, deficiencies in physical parameterizations, different SST projections, or horizontal atmospheric resolution that is too coarse to realistically represent the tight gradients over West Africa and complex topography of East Africa and India. Treatment of the land surface in a model may also be an issue over West Africa and India where land-surface/atmosphere interactions are very important. Here a method for simulating future climate is developed and applied using a high-resolution regional model in conjunction with output from a suite of AOGCMs, drawing on the advantages of both the regional and global modeling approaches. Integration by the regional model allows for finer horizontal resolution and regionally appropriate selection of parameterizations and land-surface model. AOGCM output is used to provide SST projections and lateral boundary conditions to constrain the regional model. The control simulation corresponds to 1981-2000, and eight future simulations representing 2081-2100 are conducted, each constrained by a different AOGCM and forced by CO2 concentrations from the SRES A2 emissions scenario. After model spin-up, May through October remain for investigation. Analysis is focused on climate change parameters important for impacts on agriculture and water resource management, and is presented in a format compatible with the IPCC reports. Precipitation projections simulated by the regional model are quite consistent, with 75% or more ensemble members agreeing on the sign of the anomaly over vast regions of Africa and India. Over West Africa, where the regional model provides the greatest improvement over the AOGCMs in consistency of ensemble members, precipitation at the end of the century is generally projected to increase during May and decrease in June and July. Wetter conditions are simulated during August though October, with the exception of drying close to the Guinean Coast in August. In late summer, high rainfall rates are simulated more frequently in the future, indicating the possibility for increases in flooding events. The regional model's projections over India are in stark contrast to the AOGCM's, producing intense and generally widespread drying in August and September. The very promising method developed here is young and further potential developments are recognized, including the addition of ocean, vegetation, and dust models. Ensembles which employ other regional models, sets of parameterizations, and emissions scenarios should also be explored.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Dynamic energy budget modeling reveals the potential of future growth and calcification for the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi in an acidified ocean.

PubMed

Muller, Erik B; Nisbet, Roger M

2014-06-01

Ocean acidification is likely to impact the calcification potential of marine organisms. In part due to the covarying nature of the ocean carbonate system components, including pH and CO2 and CO3(2-) levels, it remains largely unclear how each of these components may affect calcification rates quantitatively. We develop a process-based bioenergetic model that explains how several components of the ocean carbonate system collectively affect growth and calcification rates in Emiliania huxleyi, which plays a major role in marine primary production and biogeochemical carbon cycling. The model predicts that under the IPCC A2 emission scenario, its growth and calcification potential will have decreased by the end of the century, although those reductions are relatively modest. We anticipate that our model will be relevant for many other marine calcifying organisms, and that it can be used to improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on marine systems. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of carbon footprint emissions and environmental concerns of solid waste treatment and disposal techniques; case study of Malaysia.

PubMed

Malakahmad, Amirhossein; Abualqumboz, Motasem S; Kutty, Shamsul Rahman M; Abunama, Taher J

2017-12-01

Malaysian authorities has planned to minimize and stop when applicable unsanitary dumping of waste as it puts human health and the environment at elevated risk. Cost, energy and revenue are mostly adopted to draw the blueprint of upgrading municipal solid waste management system, while the carbon footprint emissions criterion rarely acts asa crucial factor. This study aims to alert Malaysian stakeholders on the uneven danger of carbon footprint emissions of waste technologies. Hence, three scenarios have been proposed and assessed mainly on the carbon footprint emissions using the 2006 IPCC methodology. The first scenario is waste dumping in sanitary landfills equipped with gas recovery system, while the second scenario includes anaerobic digestion of organics and recycling of recyclable wastes such as plastic, glass and textile wastes. The third scenario is waste incineration. Besides the carbon footprint emissions criterion, other environmental concerns were also examined. The results showed that the second scenario recorded the lowest carbon footprint emissions of 0.251t CO 2 eq./t MSW while the third scenario had the highest emissions of 0.646t CO 2 eq./t MSW. Additionally, the integration between anaerobic digestion and recycling techniques caused the highest avoided CO 2 eq. emissions of 0.74t CO 2 eq./t MSW. The net CO 2 eq. emissions of the second scenario equaled -0.489t CO 2 eq./t MSW due to energy recovery from the biogas and because of recycled plastic, glass and textile wastes that could replace usage of raw material. The outcomes also showed that the first scenario generates huge amount of leachate and hazardous air constituents. The study estimated that a ton of dumped waste inside the landfills generates approximately 0.88m 3 of trace risky compounds and 0.188m 3 of leachate. As for energy production, the results showed that the third scenario is capable of generating 639kWh/t MSW followed by the second scenario with 387.59kWh/t MSW. The first scenario produced 296.79kWh/t MSW. In conclusion, the outcomes of this study recommend an integrated scenario of anaerobic digestion and recycling techniques to be employed in Malaysia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

Modelling future changes to the stratospheric source gas injection of biogenic bromocarbons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossaini, R.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Dhomse, S.; Ordóñez, C.; Saiz-Lopez, A.; Abraham, N. L.; Archibald, A.; Braesicke, P.; Telford, P.; Warwick, N.; Yang, X.; Pyle, J.

2012-10-01

Simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) show a future increase in the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of biogenic very short-lived substances (VSLS). For 2000, the modelled SGI of bromine from VSLS is ∼1.7 parts per trillion (pptv) and largest over the tropical West Pacific. For 2100, this increases to ∼2.0 and ∼2.7 pptv when the model is forced with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The increase is largely due to stronger tropical deep convection transporting more CHBr3 to the lower stratosphere. For CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl, CH2BrCl and CHBrCl2, changes to primary oxidant OH determines their SGI contribution. Under RCP 4.5 (moderate warming), OH increases in a warmer, more humid troposphere. Under RCP 8.5 (extreme warming) OH decreases significantly due to a large methane increase, allowing greater SGI of bromine from these VSLS. Potentially enhanced VSLS emissions in the future would further increase these estimates.

A joint modelling exercise designed to assess the respective impact of emission changes and meteorological variability on the observed air quality trends in major urban hotspots.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colette, Augustin; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Dangiola, Ariela; D'Isidoro, Massimo; Gauss, Michael; Granier, Claire; Hodnebrog, Øivind; Jakobs, Hermann; Kanakidou, Maria; Khokhar, Fahim; Law, Kathy; Maurizi, Alberto; Meleux, Frederik; Memmesheimer, Michael; Nyiri, Agnes; Rouil, Laurence; Stordal, Frode; Tampieri, Francesco

2010-05-01

With the growth of urban agglomerations, assessing the drivers of variability of air quality in and around the main anthropogenic emission hotspots has become a major societal concern as well as a scientific challenge. These drivers include emission changes and meteorological variability; both of them can be investigated by means of numerical modelling of trends over the past few years. A collaborative effort has been developed in the framework of the CityZen European project to address this question. Several chemistry and transport models (CTMs) are deployed in this activity: four regional models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP and EURAD) and three global models (CTM2, MOZART, and TM4). The period from 1998 to 2007 has been selected for the historic reconstruction. The focus for the present preliminary presentation is Europe. A consistent set of emissions is used by all partners (EMEP for the European domain and IPCC-AR5 beyond) while a variety of meteorological forcing is used to gain robustness in the ensemble spread amongst models. The results of this experiment will be investigated to address the following questions: - Is the envelope of models able to reproduce the observed trends of the key chemical constituents? - How the variability amongst models changes in time and space and what does it tell us about the processes driving the observed trends? - Did chemical regimes and aerosol formation processes changed in selected hotspots? Answering the above questions will contribute to fulfil the ultimate goal of the present study: distinguishing the respective contribution of meteorological variability and emissions changes on air quality trends in major anthropogenic emissions hotspots.

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Estimation and Spatiotemporal Analysis of Methane Emissions from Agriculture in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Chao; Yu, Guirui

2010-10-01

Estimating and analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of methane emissions from agriculture (MEA) will help China formulate mitigation and adaptation strategies for the nation’s agricultural sector. Based on the Tier 2 method presented in the 2006 guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and on existing reports, this article presents a systematic estimation of MEA in China from 1990 to 2006, with a particular emphasis on trends and spatial distribution. Results from our study indicate that China’s MEA rose from 16.37 Tg yr-1 in 1990 to 19.31 Tg yr-1 in 2006, with an average annual increase of 1.04%. Over the study period, while emissions from field burning of crop residues remained rather low, those from rice cultivation and from livestock typically decreased and increased, respectively, showing extremely opposite trends that chiefly resulted from changes in the cultivated areas for different rice seasons and changes in the populations of different animal species. Over the study period, China’s high-MEA regions shifted generally northward, chiefly as a result of reduced emissions from rice cultivation in most of China’s southern provinces and a substantial growth in emissions from livestock enteric fermentation in most of China’s northern, northeastern, and northwestern provinces. While this article provides significant information on estimates of MEA in China, it also includes some uncertainties in terms of estimating emissions from each source category. We conclude that China’s MEA will likely continue to increase in the future and recommend a demonstration study on MEA mitigation along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. We further recommend enhanced data monitoring and statistical analysis, which will be essential for preparation of the national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory.

Permafrost thaw strongly reduces allowable CO2 emissions for 1.5°C and 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kechiar, M.; Gasser, T.; Kleinen, T.; Ciais, P.; Huang, Y.; Burke, E.; Obersteiner, M.

2017-12-01

We quantify how the inclusion of carbon emission from permafrost thaw impacts the budgets of allowable anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 which we expand with a permafrost module calibrated to emulate the behavior of the complex models JSBACH, ORCHIDEE and JULES. When using the "exceedance" method and with permafrost thaw turned off, we find budgets very close to the CMIP5 models' estimates reported by IPCC. With permafrost thaw turned on, the total budgets are reduced by 3-4%. This corresponds to a 33-45% reduction of the remaining budget for 1.5°C, and a 9-13% reduction for 2°C. When using the "avoidance" method, however, permafrost thaw reduces the total budget by 3-7%, which corresponds to reductions by 33-56% and 56-79% of the remaining budget for 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively. The avoidance method relies on many scenarios that actually peak below the target whereas the exceedance method overlooks the carbon emitted by thawed permafrost after the temperature target is reached, which explains the difference. If we use only the subset of scenarios in which there is no net negative emissions, the permafrost-induced reduction in total budgets rises to 6-15%. Permafrost thaw therefore makes the emission budgets strongly path-dependent. We also estimate budgets of needed carbon capture in scenarios overshooting the temperature targets. Permafrost thaw strongly increases these capture budgets: in the case of a 1.5°C target overshot by 0.5°C, which is in line with the Paris agreement, about 30% more carbon must be captured. Our conclusions are threefold. First, inclusion of permafrost thaw systematically reduces the emission budgets, and very strongly so if the temperature target is overshot. Second, the exceedance method, that is the only one that complex models can follow, only partially accounts for the effect of slow non-linear processes such as permafrost thaw, leading to overestimated budgets. Third, the newfound strong path-dependency of the budgets renders the concept more delicate to use. For instance, using a budget that implicitly assumes a large development of negative emission technologies may lead to missing the target if these are not as scalable as anticipated.

The implications of rebasing global mean temperature timeseries for GCM based climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global climate and earth system models are assessed by comparison with observations through a number of metrics. The InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights in particular their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. This focus on annual mean global mean temperature (hereafter GMT) change is presented as an important element in demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Any new model or new model version whose historic simulations fail to reproduce the "general features " and 20th century trends is likely therefore to undergo further tuning. Thus this focus could have implications for model development. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies i.e. changes with respect to some period. Since the models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K (roughly observed GMT +/- 1.5K) this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We present timeseries of the slow timescale response of the CMIP5 models rebased to late-20th century temperatures and to mid-19th century temperatures. We provide a mathematical interpretation of this approach to model assessment and discuss two consequences. First is a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. Second, is an implication of linearity in the GMT response (to the extent that the slow-timescale response of the historic simulations is consistent with observations, and given their uncertainties). For each individual model these consequences only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a much wider range of GMTs. The analysis suggests that this aspect of model evaluation risks providing a model development pressure which acts against a wide exploration of physically plausible responses; in particular against an exploration of potentially globally significant nonlinear responses and feedbacks. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

2016-04-01

While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5EgC, with smaller forcing contributions from other greenhouse gases. These results indicate that the unregulated exploitation of the fossil fuel resource would ultimately result in considerably more profound climate changes than previously suggested.

Projection of Carbon Dynamics in the Marine West Coast Forests under Climate and Land Cover changes Using General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, Y.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Young, C.; Werner, J.; Dahal, D.; Liu, J.; Schmidt, G.

2012-12-01

Climate and land cover changes may influence the capacity of the terrestrial ecosystems to be carbon sinks or sources. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential change of the carbon sequestration in the Marine West Coast Forests ecoregion in the Pacific Northwest United States using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). In GEMS, the underlying biogeochemical model, Erosion and Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), was used and calibrated using MODIS net primary production (NPP) and grain yield data during the baseline period from 2002 to 2005, and then validated with another four-year period from 2006 to 2009. GEMS-EDCM was driven using projected climate from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) and derived land cover data from the FORecasting SCEnarios (FORE-SCE) model under the same three IPCC scenarios for the period from 2006 to 2050. This ecoregion, two-thirds of which is covered by forest, was projected to continue to gain carbon from 2005 to 2050, with an annual carbon sequestration of about -3 Tg C. It was also predicted that live biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) would contain about 48% and 33% of the total carbon storage by 2050, respectively. In addition, forest carbon sequestration (-2 Tg C yr-1) demonstrated to be the largest sink among all ecosystems, accounting for 73% of the total, followed by grass/shrub and agriculture. Overall, results about predicted dynamics of carbon storage and sequestration can be informative to policy makers for seeking mitigation plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-10

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10 6  km 2 , 0.14 × 10 6  km 2 , and 0.11 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-01-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species. PMID:28393865

Heating with Biomass in the United Kingdom: Lessons from New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, E. J. S.; Coulson, G.; Butt, E. W.; Forster, P. M.; Jones, J. M.; Williams, A.

2017-03-01

In this study we review the current status of residential solid fuel (RSF) use in the UK and compare it with New Zealand, which has had severe wintertime air quality issues for many years that is directly attributable to domestic wood burning in heating stoves. Results showed that RSF contributed to more than 40 μg m-3 PM10 and 10 μg m-3 BC in some suburban locations of New Zealand in 2006, with significant air quality and climate impacts. Models predict RSF consumption in New Zealand to decrease slightly from 7 PJ to 6 PJ between 1990 and 2030, whereas consumption in the UK increases by a factor of 14. Emissions are highest from heating stoves and fireplaces, and their calculated contribution to radiative forcing in the UK increases by 23% between 2010 and 2030, with black carbon accounting for more than three quarters of the total warming effect. By 2030, the residential sector accounts for 44% of total BC emissions in the UK and far exceeds emissions from the traffic sector. Finally, a unique bottom-up emissions inventory was produced for both countries using the latest national survey and census data for the year 2013/14. Fuel- and technology-specific emissions factors were compared between multiple inventories including GAINS, the IPCC, the EMEP/EEA and the NAEI. In the UK, it was found that wood consumption in stoves was within 30% of the GAINS inventory, but consumption in fireplaces was substantially higher and fossil fuel consumption is more than twice the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 2-3 higher for biomass and 2-6 higher for coal. In New Zealand, coal and lignite consumption in stoves is within 24% of the GAINS inventory estimate, but wood consumption is more than 7 times the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 1-2 higher for coal and several times higher for wood. The results of this study indicate that emissions from residential heating stoves and fireplaces may be underestimated in climate models. Emissions are increasing rapidly in the UK which may result in severe wintertime air quality reductions, as seen in New Zealand, and contribute to climate warming unless controls are implemented such as the Ecodesign emissions limits.

Reducing CH4 emission from rice paddy fields by altering water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudo, S.; Itoh, M.

2010-12-01

Percentage of atmospheric methane emitted form rice paddy is estimated at 60Tg/yr (20 - 100Tg/yr) which is near 10% of total global methane emission of 535Tg/yr (410 - 660Tg) (IPCC(1995), and which is near 30% of anthropogenic CH4 emission. Thus, mitigation of CH4 emission is urgently required. CH4 in paddy soil is emanated by the activities of anaerobic bacteria which is called methane producer through reduction of CO2 or decomposition of acetic acid, and it is transported to atmosphere through soil or paddy water surface. It is effective to control methane emission from rice paddy that period is extended on intermittent drainage, composted rice straw is incorporated as fertilizer instead of flesh one, or other. However, empirical approach of these kinds of experiments had not been sufficient because such a kind of experiment required significant times and efforts. In this study, we conducted demonstrative experiments to verify the effects of water management method differences in order to reduce CH4 emission from rice paddy at 9 experimental sites in 8 prefectures. In this, we used new gas analyzer which can measure CH4, CO2 and N2O at once developed by National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Japan. In this report, we show the results in two years of this study. 'Nakaboshi' (mid-season-drainage) is one of cultivation methods in rice paddy that surface water in paddy field is once drained for about 10 days and the field is maintained like upland field to give adequate stress to rice plant for better harvest qualities and yields. Our targeted evaluation was dependencies of Nakaboshi periods lengths and Nakaboshi periods to CH4 emission reduction amounts for total cultivation periods within harvest yield maintained. The longer length of Nakaboshi period was extended, the lesser CH4 emitted even after when Nakaboshi period lasted, as a whole. In some cases, for example in Kagoshima, exceptional phenomena of that significant high emission were observed at a later stage of cultivation season (around the end of August). Adjusting of Nakaboshi periods did not make effective performance in such cases. In most of cases, emission increase of N2O was not found during prolonged Nakaboshi period.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash

The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality ismore » projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O 3 level and of 0.3 mg m 3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO 2, H 2O 2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O 3, and increases in CH 4 and VOCs. Increasing NO x and O 3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O 3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m 2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed treatments. This study indicates that effective climate mitigation and emission control strategies are needed to prevent future health impact and ecosystem stress. Further, studies that are used to develop these strategies should use fully coupled models with sophisticated chemical and aerosol-interaction treatments that can provide a more realistic representation of the atmosphere.« less

Changing concentration, lifetime and climate forcing of atmospheric methane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, Jos; Crutzen, Paul J.; Dentener, Frank J.

1998-04-01

Previous studies on ice core analyses and recent in situ measurements have shown that CH4 has increased from about 0.75 1.73μmol/mol during the past 150years. Here, we review sources and sink estimates and we present global 3D model calculations, showing that the main features of the global CH4 distribution are well represented. The model has been used to derive the total CH4 emission source, being about 600 Tg yr-1. Based on published results of isotope measurements the total contribution of fossil fuel related CH4 emissions has been estimated to be about 110 Tg yr-1. However, the individual coal, natural gas and oil associated CH4 emissions can not be accurately quantified. In particular natural gas and oil associated emissions remain speculative. Since the total anthropogenic CH4 source is about 410 Tg yr-1 (70% of the total source) and the mean recent atmospheric CH4 increase is 20 Tg yr-1 an anthropogenic source reduction of 5% could stabilize the atmospheric CH4 level. We have calculated the indirect chemical effects of increasing CH4 on climate forcing on the basis of global 3D chemistry-transport and radiative transfer calculations. These indicate an enhancement of the direct radiative effect by about 30%, in agreement with previous work. The contribution of CH4 (direct and indirect effects) to climate forcing during the past 150years is 0.57W m2 (direct 0.44W m2, indirect 0.13 W m2). This is about 35% of the climate forcing by CO2 (1.6W m2) and about 22% of the forcing by all long-lived greenhouse gases (2.6 W m2). Scenario calculations (IPCC-IS92a) indicate that the CH4 lifetime in the atmosphere increased by about 25 30%during the past 150years to a current value of 7.9years. Future lifetime changes are expected to be much smaller, about 6%, mostly due to the expected increase of tropospheric O3 (→OH) in the tropics. The global mean concentration of CH4 may increase to about 2.55μmol/mol, its lifetime is expected to increase to 8.4years in the year 2050. Further, we have calculated a CH4 global warming potential (GWP) of 21 (kgCH4/kgCO2) over a time horizon of 100years, in agreement with IPCC (1996). Scenario calculations indicate that the importance of the climate forcing by CH4 (including indirect effects) relative to that of CO2 will decrease in future; currently this is about 35%, while this is expected to decrease to about 15% in the year 2050.

Towards a Novel Integrated Approach for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Support of International Agreements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimann, S.; Vollmer, M. K.; Henne, S.; Brunner, D.; Emmenegger, L.; Manning, A.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; Dunse, B. L.; DeCola, P.; Tarasova, O. A.

2016-12-01

In the recently adopted Paris Agreement the community of signatory states has agreed to limit the future global temperature increase between +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C, compared to pre-industrial times. To achieve this goal, emission reduction targets have been submitted by individual nations (called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs). Inventories will be used for checking progress towards these envisaged goals. These inventories are calculated by combining information on specific activities (e.g. passenger cars, agriculture) with activity-related, typically IPCC-sanctioned, emission factors - the so-called bottom-up method. These calculated emissions are reported on an annual basis and are checked by external bodies by using the same method. A second independent method estimates emissions by translating greenhouse gas measurements made at regionally representative stations into regional/global emissions using meteorologically-based transport models. In recent years this so-called top-down approach has been substantially advanced into a powerful tool and emission estimates at the national/regional level have become possible. This method is already used in Switzerland, in the United Kingdom and in Australia to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and independently support the national bottom-up emission inventories within the UNFCCC framework. Examples of the comparison of the two independent methods will be presented and the added-value will be discussed. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partner organizations are currently developing a plan to expand this top-down approach and to expand the globally representative GAW network of ground-based stations and remote-sensing platforms and integrate their information with atmospheric transport models. This Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) initiative will help nations to improve the accuracy of their country-based emissions inventories and their ability to evaluate the success of emission reductions strategies. This could foster trans-national collaboration on methodologies for estimation of emissions. Furthermore, more accurate emission knowledge will clarify the value of emission reduction efforts and could encourage countries to strengthen their reduction pledges.

Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon from African Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiken, A. C.; Leone, O.; Nitschke, K. L.; Dubey, M. K.; Carrico, C.; Springston, S. R.; Sedlacek, A. J., III; Watson, T. B.; Kuang, C.; Uin, J.; McMeeking, G. R.; DeMott, P. J.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Robinson, A. L.; Yokelson, R. J.; Zuidema, P.

2016-12-01

Biomass burning (BB) emissions are a large source of carbon to the atmosphere via particles and gas phase species. Carbonaceous aerosols are emitted along with gas-phase carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) that can be used to determine particulate emission ratios and modified combustion efficiencies. Black carbon (BC) aerosols are potentially underestimated in global models and are considered to be one of the most important global warming factors behind CO2. Half or more BC in the atmosphere is from BB, estimated at 6-9 Tg/yr (IPCC, 5AR) and contributing up to 0.6 W/m2 atmospheric warming (Bond et al., 2013). With a potential rise in drought and extreme events in the future due to climate change, these numbers are expected to increase. For this reason, we focus on BC and organic carbon aerosol species that are emitted from forest fires and compare their emission ratios, physical and optical properties to those from controlled laboratory studies of single-source BB fuels to understand BB carbonaceous aerosols in the atmosphere. We investigate BC in concentrated BB plumes as sampled from the new U.S. DOE ARM Program campaign, Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The ARM Aerosol Mobile Facility 1 (AMF1) and Mobile Aerosol Observing System (MAOS) are currently located on Ascension Island in the South Atlantic Ocean, located midway between Angola and Brazil. The location was chosen for sampling maximum aerosol outflow from Africa. The far-field aged BC from LASIC is compared to BC from indoor generation from single-source fuels, e.g. African grass, sampled during Fire Lab At Missoula Experiments IV (FLAME-IV). BC is measured with a single-particle soot photometer (SP2) alongside numerous supporting instrumentation, e.g. particle counters, CO and CO2 detectors, aerosol scattering and absorption measurements, etc. FLAME-IV includes both direct emissions and well-mixed aerosol samples that have undergone dilution, cooling, and condensation. BC physical and optical properties change as particles are transported in the atmosphere due to oxidation, coagulation, and condensation which is observed in the laboratory BC data. Laboratory BC emissions and emission ratios are compared with those from LASIC to improve model treatment of BB BC emissions and aging in global climate models.

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Lamon, Lara; MacLeod, Matthew; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2012-05-01

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.

2017-12-01

Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

Ischemia-induced glomerular parietal epithelial cells hyperplasia: Commonly misdiagnosed cellular crescent in renal biopsy.

PubMed

Zeng, Yeting; Wang, Xinrui; Xie, Feilai; Zheng, Zhiyong

2017-08-01

Ischemic pseudo-cellular crescent (IPCC) that is induced by ischemia and composed of hyperplastic glomerular parietal epithelial cells resembles cellular crescent. In this study, we aimed to assess the clinical and pathological features of IPCC in renal biopsy to avoid over-diagnosis and to determine the diagnostic basis. 4 IPCC cases diagnosed over a 4-year period (2012-2015) were evaluated for the study. Meanwhile, 5 cases of ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis and 5 cases of lupus nephritis (LN) were selected as control. Appropriate clinical data, morphology, and immunohistochemical features of all cases were retrieved. Results showed that the basement membrane of glomerulus with IPCC appeared as a concentric twisted ball, and glomerular cells of the lesion were reduced even entirely absent, and the adjacent afferent arterioles showed sclerosis or luminal stenosis. Furthermore, immune globulin deposition, vasculitis, and fibrinous exudate have not been observed in IPCC. While the cellular crescents showed diverse characteristics in both morphology and immunostaining in the control group. Therefore, these results indicated that IPCC is a sort of ischemic reactive hyperplasia and associated with sclerosis, stenosis, or obstruction of adjacent afferent arterioles, which is clearly different from cellular crescents result from glomerulonephritis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The development of contemporary European sea bass larvae (Dicentrarchus labrax) is not affected by projected ocean acidification scenarios.

PubMed

Crespel, Amélie; Zambonino-Infante, José-Luis; Mazurais, David; Koumoundouros, George; Fragkoulis, Stefanos; Quazuguel, Patrick; Huelvan, Christine; Madec, Laurianne; Servili, Arianna; Claireaux, Guy

2017-01-01

Ocean acidification is a recognized consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission in the atmosphere. Despite its threat to marine ecosystems, little is presently known about the capacity for fish to respond efficiently to this acidification. In adult fish, acid-base regulatory capacities are believed to be relatively competent to respond to hypercapnic conditions. However, fish in early life stage could be particularly sensitive to environmental factors as organs and important physiological functions become progressively operational during this period. In this study, the response of European sea bass ( Dicentrarchus labrax ) larvae reared under three ocean acidification scenarios, i.e., control (present condition, [Formula: see text] = 590 µatm, pH total = 7.9), low acidification (intermediate IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 980 µatm, pH total = 7.7), and high acidification (most severe IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 1520 µatm, pH total = 7.5) were compared across multiple levels of biological organizations. From 2 to 45 days-post-hatching, the chronic exposure to the different scenarios had limited influence on the survival and growth of the larvae (in the low acidification condition only) and had no apparent effect on the digestive developmental processes. The high acidification condition induced both faster mineralization and reduction in skeletal deformities. Global (microarray) and targeted (qPCR) analysis of transcript levels in whole larvae did not reveal any significant changes in gene expression across tested acidification conditions. Overall, this study suggests that contemporary sea bass larvae are already capable of coping with projected acidification conditions without having to mobilize specific defense mechanisms.

Parameter-induced uncertainty quantification of a regional N2O and NO3 inventory using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, Edwin; Klatt, Steffen; Kraus, David; Werner, Christian; Ruiz, Ignacio Santa Barbara; Kiese, Ralf; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2014-05-01

Numerical simulation models are increasingly used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional and national scales and are outlined as the most advanced methodology (Tier 3) for national emission inventory in the framework of UNFCCC reporting. Process-based models incorporate the major processes of the carbon and nitrogen cycle of terrestrial ecosystems like arable land and grasslands and are thus thought to be widely applicable at various spatial and temporal scales. The high complexity of ecosystem processes mirrored by such models requires a large number of model parameters. Many of those parameters are lumped parameters describing simultaneously the effect of environmental drivers on e.g. microbial community activity and individual processes. Thus, the precise quantification of true parameter states is often difficult or even impossible. As a result model uncertainty is not solely originating from input uncertainty but also subject to parameter-induced uncertainty. In this study we quantify regional parameter-induced model uncertainty on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate (NO3) leaching from arable soils of Saxony (Germany) using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we calculate a regional inventory using a joint parameter distribution for key parameters describing microbial C and N turnover processes as obtained by a Bayesian calibration study. We representatively sampled 400 different parameter vectors from the discrete joint parameter distribution comprising approximately 400,000 parameter combinations and used these to calculate 400 individual realizations of the regional inventory. The spatial domain (represented by 4042 polygons) is set up with spatially explicit soil and climate information and a region-typical 3-year crop rotation consisting of winter wheat, rape- seed, and winter barley. Average N2O emission from arable soils in the state of Saxony across all 400 realizations was 1.43 ± 1.25 [kg N / ha] with a median value of 1.05 [kg N / ha]. Using the default IPCC emission factor approach (Tier 1) for direct emissions reveal a higher average N2O emission of 1.51 [kg N / ha] due to fertilizer use. In the regional uncertainty quantification the 20% likelihood range for N2O emissions is 0.79 - 1.37 [kg N / ha] (50% likelihood: 0.46 - 2.05 [kg N / ha]; 90% likelihood: 0.11 - 4.03 [kg N / ha]). Respective quantities were calculated for nitrate leaching. The method has proven its applicability to quantify parameter-induced uncertainty of simulated regional greenhouse gas emission and nitrate leaching inventories using process based biogeochemical models.

Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Hooidonk, R.; Maynard, J. A.; Planes, S.

2013-05-01

Climate-change impacts on coral reefs are expected to include temperature-induced spatially extensive bleaching events. Bleaching causes mortality when temperature stress persists but exposure to bleaching conditions is not expected to be spatially uniform at the regional or global scale. Here we show the first maps of global projections of bleaching conditions based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 (ref. ) models forced with the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For the three RCPs with larger CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) the onset of annual bleaching conditions is associated with ~ 510ppm CO2 equivalent; the median year of all locations is 2040 for the fossil-fuel aggressive RCP 8.5. Spatial patterns in the onset of annual bleaching conditions are similar for each of the RCPs. For RCP 8.5, 26% of reef cells are projected to experience annual bleaching conditions more than 5 years later than the median. Some of these temporary refugia include the western Indian Ocean, Thailand, the southern Great Barrier Reef and central French Polynesia. A reduction in the growth of greenhouse-gas emissions corresponding to the difference between RCP 8.5 and 6.0 delays annual bleaching in ~ 23% of reef cells more than two decades, which might conceivably increase the potential for these reefs to cope with these changes.

Long-term nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial agricultural and unmanaged ecosystems in the upper Midwest USA

DOE PAGES

Gelfand, Ilya; Shcherbak, Iurii; Millar, Neville; ...

2016-08-11

Differences in soil nitrous oxide (N 2O) fluxes among ecosystems are often difficult to evaluate and predict due to high spatial and temporal variabilities and few direct experimental comparisons. For 20 years, we measured N 2O fluxes in 11 ecosystems in southwest Michigan USA: four annual grain crops (corn–soybean–wheat rotations) managed with conventional, no-till, reduced input, or biologically based/organic inputs; three perennial crops (alfalfa, poplar, and conifers); and four unmanaged ecosystems of different successional age including mature forest. Average N 2O emissions were higher from annual grain and N-fixing cropping systems than from nonleguminous perennial cropping systems and were low across unmanaged ecosystems. Among annual cropping systems full-rotation fluxes were indistinguishable from one another but rotation phase mattered. For example, those systems with cover crops and reduced fertilizer N emitted more N 2O during the corn and soybean phases, but during the wheat phase fluxes were ~40% lower. Likewise, no-till did not differ from conventional tillage over the entire rotation but reduced emissions ~20% in the wheat phase and increased emissions 30–80% in the corn and soybean phases. Greenhouse gas intensity for the annual crops (flux per unit yield) was lowest for soybeans produced under conventional management, while for the 11 other crop 9 management combinations intensities were similar to one another. Among the fertilized systems, emissions ranged from 0.30 to 1.33 kg N 2O-N ha -1 yr -1 and were best predicted by IPCC Tier 1 and DEF emission factor approaches. Annual cumulative fluxes from perennial systems were best explained by soil NOmore » $$-\\atop{3}$$ pools (r 2 = 0.72) but not so for annual crops, where management differences overrode simple correlations. Daily soil N 2O emissions were poorly predicted by any measured variables. Overall, long-term measurements reveal lower fluxes in nonlegume perennial vegetation and, for conservatively fertilized annual crops, the overriding influence of rotation phase on annual fluxes.« less

Long-term nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial agricultural and unmanaged ecosystems in the upper Midwest USA.

PubMed

Gelfand, Ilya; Shcherbak, Iurii; Millar, Neville; Kravchenko, Alexandra N; Robertson, G Philip

2016-11-01

Differences in soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes among ecosystems are often difficult to evaluate and predict due to high spatial and temporal variabilities and few direct experimental comparisons. For 20 years, we measured N 2 O fluxes in 11 ecosystems in southwest Michigan USA: four annual grain crops (corn-soybean-wheat rotations) managed with conventional, no-till, reduced input, or biologically based/organic inputs; three perennial crops (alfalfa, poplar, and conifers); and four unmanaged ecosystems of different successional age including mature forest. Average N 2 O emissions were higher from annual grain and N-fixing cropping systems than from nonleguminous perennial cropping systems and were low across unmanaged ecosystems. Among annual cropping systems full-rotation fluxes were indistinguishable from one another but rotation phase mattered. For example, those systems with cover crops and reduced fertilizer N emitted more N 2 O during the corn and soybean phases, but during the wheat phase fluxes were ~40% lower. Likewise, no-till did not differ from conventional tillage over the entire rotation but reduced emissions ~20% in the wheat phase and increased emissions 30-80% in the corn and soybean phases. Greenhouse gas intensity for the annual crops (flux per unit yield) was lowest for soybeans produced under conventional management, while for the 11 other crop × management combinations intensities were similar to one another. Among the fertilized systems, emissions ranged from 0.30 to 1.33 kg N 2 O-N ha -1  yr -1 and were best predicted by IPCC Tier 1 and ΔEF emission factor approaches. Annual cumulative fluxes from perennial systems were best explained by soil NO3- pools (r 2  = 0.72) but not so for annual crops, where management differences overrode simple correlations. Daily soil N 2 O emissions were poorly predicted by any measured variables. Overall, long-term measurements reveal lower fluxes in nonlegume perennial vegetation and, for conservatively fertilized annual crops, the overriding influence of rotation phase on annual fluxes. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Species-specific responses to climate change and community composition determine future calcification rates of Florida Keys reefs.

PubMed

Okazaki, Remy R; Towle, Erica K; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Mor, Carolina; Winter, Rivah N; Piggot, Alan M; Cunning, Ross; Baker, Andrew C; Klaus, James S; Swart, Peter K; Langdon, Chris

2017-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change compromises reef growth as a result of increasing temperatures and ocean acidification. Scleractinian corals vary in their sensitivity to these variables, suggesting species composition will influence how reef communities respond to future climate change. Because data are lacking for many species, most studies that model future reef growth rely on uniform scleractinian calcification sensitivities to temperature and ocean acidification. To address this knowledge gap, calcification of twelve common and understudied Caribbean coral species was measured for two months under crossed temperatures (27, 30.3 °C) and CO 2 partial pressures (pCO 2 ) (400, 900, 1300 μatm). Mixed-effects models of calcification for each species were then used to project community-level scleractinian calcification using Florida Keys reef composition data and IPCC AR5 ensemble climate model data. Three of the four most abundant species, Orbicella faveolata, Montastraea cavernosa, and Porites astreoides, had negative calcification responses to both elevated temperature and pCO 2 . In the business-as-usual CO 2 emissions scenario, reefs with high abundances of these species had projected end-of-century declines in scleractinian calcification of >50% relative to present-day rates. Siderastrea siderea, the other most common species, was insensitive to both temperature and pCO 2 within the levels tested here. Reefs dominated by this species had the most stable end-of-century growth. Under more optimistic scenarios of reduced CO 2 emissions, calcification rates throughout the Florida Keys declined <20% by 2100. Under the most extreme emissions scenario, projected declines were highly variable among reefs, ranging 10-100%. Without considering bleaching, reef growth will likely decline on most reefs, especially where resistant species like S. siderea are not already dominant. This study demonstrates how species composition influences reef community responses to climate change and how reduced CO 2 emissions can limit future declines in reef calcification. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Advancing agricultural greenhouse gas quantification*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Eva; Tubiello, Francesco; Herold, Martin

2013-03-01

1. Introduction Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use. The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011). 2. Agriculture and climate change mitigation The main agricultural GHGs—methane and nitrous oxide—account for 10%-12% of anthropogenic emissions globally (Smith et al 2008), or around 50% and 60% of total anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively, in 2005. Net carbon dioxide fluxes between agricultural land and the atmosphere linked to food production are relatively small, although significant carbon emissions are associated with degradation of organic soils for plantations in tropical regions (Smith et al 2007, FAO 2012). Population growth and shifts in dietary patterns toward more meat and dairy consumption will lead to increased emissions unless we improve production efficiencies and management. Developing countries currently account for about three-quarters of direct emissions and are expected to be the most rapidly growing emission sources in the future (FAO 2011). Reducing agricultural emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in the soil and biomass has the potential to reduce agriculture's contribution to climate change by 5.5-6.0 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq)/year. Economic potentials, which take into account costs of implementation, range from 1.5 to 4.3 GT CO2eq/year, depending on marginal abatement costs assumed and financial resources committed, with most of this potential in developing countries (Smith et al 2007). The opportunity for mitigation in agriculture is thus significant, and, if realized, would contribute to making this sector carbon neutral. Yet it is only through a robust and shared understanding of how much carbon can be stored or how much CO2 is reduced from mitigation practices that informed decisions can be made about how to identify, implement, and balance a suite of mitigation practices as diverse as enhancing soil organic matter, increasing the digestibility of feed for cattle, and increasing the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer applications. Only by selecting a portfolio of options adapted to regional characteristics and goals can mitigation needs be best matched to also serve rural development goals, including food security and increased resilience to climate change. Expansion of agricultural land also remains a major contributor of greenhouse gases, with deforestation, largely linked to clearing of land for cultivation or pasture, generating 80% of emissions from developing countries (Hosonuma et al 2012). There are clear opportunities for these countries to address mitigation strategies from the forest and agriculture sector, recognizing that agriculture plays a large role in economic and development potential. In this context, multiple development goals can be reinforced by specific climate funding granted on the basis of multiple benefits and synergies, for instance through currently negotiated mechanisms such as Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) (REDD+, Kissinger et al 2012). 3. Challenges to quantifying GHG information for the agricultural sector The quantification of GHG emissions from agriculture is fundamental to identifying mitigation solutions that are consistent with the goals of achieving greater resilience in production systems, food security, and rural welfare. GHG emissions data are already needed for such varied purposes as guiding national planning for low-emissions development, generating and trading carbon credits, certifying sustainable agriculture practices, informing consumers' choices with regard to reducing their carbon footprints, assessing product supply chains, and supporting farmers in adopting less carbon-intensive farming practices. Demonstrating the robustness, feasibility, and cost effectiveness of agricultural GHG inventories and monitoring is a necessary technical foundation for including agriculture in the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and is needed to provide robust data and methodology platforms for global corporate supply-chain initiatives (e.g., SAFA, FAO 2012). Given such varied drivers for GHG reductions, there are a number of uses for agricultural GHG information, including (1) reporting and accounting at the national or company level, (2) land-use planning and management to achieve specific objectives, (3) monitoring and evaluating impact of management, (4) developing a credible and thus tradable offset credit, and (5) research and capacity development. The information needs for these uses is likely to differ in the required level of certainty, scale of analysis, and need for comparability across systems or repeatability over time, and they may depend on whether descriptive trends are sufficient or an understanding of drivers and causes are needed. While there are certainly similar needs across uses and users, the necessary methods, data, and models for quantifying GHGs may vary. Common challenges for quantification noted in an informal survey of users of GHG information by Olander et al (2013) include the following. 3.1. Need for user-friendly methods that work across scales, regions, and systems Much of the data gathered and models developed by the research community provide high confidence in data or indicators computed at one place or for one issue, thus they are relevant for only specific uses, not transparent, or not comparable. These research approaches need to be translated to practitioners though the development of farmer friendly, transparent, comparable, and broadly applicable methods. Many users noted the need for quantification data and methods that work and are accurate across region and scales. One of the interviewed users, Charlotte Streck, summed it up nicely: 'A priority would be to produce comparable datasets for agricultural GHG emissions of particular agricultural practices for a broad set of countries ... with a gradual increase in accuracy'. 3.2. Need for lower cost, feasible approaches Concerns about cost and complexity of existing quantification methods were raised by a number of users interviewed in the survey. In the field it is difficult to measure changes in GHGs from agricultural management due to spatial and temporal variability, and the scale of the management-induced changes relative to background pools and fluxes. Many users noted data gaps and inconsistencies and insufficient technical capacity and infrastructure to generate necessary information, particularly in developing countries. The need for creative approaches for data collection and analysis, such as crowd sourcing and mobile technology, were noted. 3.3. Need for methods that can crosswalk between emission-reduction strategy and inventories or reporting A few users emphasized the need for information and quantification approaches that cannot only track GHGs but also help with strategic planning on what to grow where and when to maximize mitigation and adaptation benefits. Methods need to incorporate the quantification context, taking into account climate impacts, viability, and cost of management options. Thus, data and methods are needed that integrate climate impacts into models used to assess the potential and costs of GHG mitigation strategies. 3.4. Need for confidence thresholds and rules that are appropriate for use Users noted that national inventories through the UNFCCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) require 95% confidence, while some offset market standards leave confidence levels to the discretion of the developer, using discounts in value for greater uncertainty. Nonetheless, these standards tend to have expectations of 20% confidence or better. In fact, both regulatory and voluntary reporting suffer from large uncertainties in the underlying activity data as well as in emission factors. In some circumstances emissions factors may add as much as 50-150% uncertainty to GHG estimates (IPCC 2006). Uncertainty clearly needs to be assessed in implementing projects and programs. In some cases there are uncertainty thresholds, while in others uncertainty is assessed and used as part of the quantification process. What is not always clear is where uncertainty thresholds are necessary to maintain the usefulness of the information and where they are hindering early progress. 3.5. Easily understood and common metrics for policy and market users Inventories usually track tons of CO2 equivalents, while supply-chain and corporate reporting are more likely to track efficiency metrics, such as GHG emissions per unit of product; offsets protocols may combine both approaches. As demand for food rises, efficiency of production becomes an increasingly important metric, even if total CO2 equivalents need to be tracked in parallel to assess climate impacts. For livestock systems it is unclear which metrics are most important to track, GHGs per unit of meat or milk or perhaps per calorie? Different metrics are likely needed for different uses. 3.6. Capacity development in developing countries There is need to improve on the current lack of capacities to monitor land use and land-use change and their associated GHG emissions and removals for national inventories (UNFCCC 2008, Romijn et al 2012). Since there are ongoing efforts to improve, data, methods and capacities for monitoring forests in the context of REDD+ (Herold and Skutsch 2011), synergies should be sought to use and build upon joint data sources and approaches, such as remote sensing, field inventories, crowd sourcing. and human capacities to estimate and report on GHG balance in both forests and agriculture. A number of specific objectives to meet these challenges are discussed in this special issue. Improve the accuracy of emissions factors across regional differences. Improve national inventory data of management activities, crop type and variety, and livestock breeds. Use historical data and data collection over time to show trends. Test the extent of model applications through field validation (e.g., can they be used in regions with less data?). Enhance technical capacity and infrastructure for data acquisition and for application of mitigation strategies in field programs. Increase understanding of which mitigation practices result in more resilient systems. Improve understanding of the GHG tradeoffs of expanding fertilizer use. While data sources and methods are improving and research and operational monitoring are increasing, the international community can be strategic in targeting support for this work and coordinating data and information collection to move toward revised good practice guidelines that would address the particular circumstances and practices dominant in developing countries. 4. Current data infrastructure and systems supporting GHG quantification in the agricultural sector To understand the challenges facing GHG quantification it is helpful to understand the existing supporting infrastructure and systems for quantification. The existing and developing structures for national and local data acquisition and management are the foundation for the empirical and process-based models used by most countries and projects currently quantifying agricultural greenhouse gases. Direct measurement can be used to complement and supplement such models, but this is not yet sufficient by itself given costs, complexities, and uncertainties. One of the primary purposes of data acquisition and quantification is for national-level inventories and planning. For such efforts countries are conducting national-level collection of activity data (who is doing which agricultural practices where) and some are also developing national or regional-level emissions factors. Infrastructure that supports these efforts includes intergovernmental panels, global alliances, and data-sharing networks. Multilateral data sharing for applications, such as the FAO Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) (FAO 2012), the IPCC Emission Factor Database (IPCC 2012), and UNFCCC national inventories (UNFCCC 2012), are building greater consistency and standardization by using global standards such as the IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (e.g., IPCC 1996, 2003, 2006). There is also work on common quantification methods and accounting, for example agreed on global warming potentials for different contributing gases and GHG quantification methodologies for projects (e.g., the Verified Carbon Standard Sustainable Agricultural Land Management [SALM] protocol, VCS 2011). Other examples include the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (2012) and GRACEnet (Greenhouse gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network) (USDA Agricultural Research Service 2011), which aim to improve consistency of field measurement and data collection for soil carbon sequestration and soil nitrous oxide fluxes. Often these national-level activity data and emissions factors are the basis for regional and smaller-scale applications. Such data are used for model-based estimates of changes in GHGs at a project or regional level (Olander et al 2011). To complement national data for regional-, landscape-, or field-level applications, new data are often collected through farmer knowledge or records and field sampling. Ideally such data could be collected in a standardized manner, perhaps through some type of crowd sourcing model to improve regional—and national—level data, as well as to improve consistency of locally collected data. Data can also be collected by companies working with agricultural suppliers and in country networks, within efforts aimed at understanding firm and product (supply-chain) sustainability and risks (FAO 2009). Such data may feed into various certification processes or reporting requirements from buyers. Unfortunately, this data is likely proprietary. A new process is needed to aggregate and share private data in a way that would not be a competitive concern so such data could complement or supplement national data and add value. A number of papers in this focus issue discuss issues surrounding quantification methods and systems at large scales, global and national levels, while others explore landscape- and field-scale approaches. A few explore the intersection of top-down and bottom-up data measurement and modeling approaches. 5. The agricultural greenhouse gas quantification project and ERL focus issue Important land management decisions are often made with poor or few data, especially in developing countries. Current systems for quantifying GHG emissions are inadequate in most low-income countries, due to a lack of funding, human resources, and infrastructure. Most non-Annex 1 countries reporting agricultural emissions to the UNFCCC have used only Tier I default emissions factors (Nihart 2012, unpublished data), yet default numbers are based on a very limited number of studies. Furthermore, most non-Annex I countries have reported their National Communications only one or two times in the period 1990-2010. China, for instance, has not submitted agricultural inventory data since 1994. As we move toward the next IPCC assessment report on climate change and while UNFCCC negotiations give greater attention to the role of agriculture within international agreements, it is valuable to understand our current and potential near-term capacity to quantify and track emissions and assess mitigation potential in the agriculture sector, providing countries—especially least developed countries (LDCs)—with the information they need to promote and implement actions that, while conducive to mitigation, are also consistent with their rural development and food security goals. The purpose of this focus issue is to improve the knowledge and practice of quantifying GHG emissions from agriculture around the globe. The issue discusses methodological, data, and capacity gaps and needs across scales of quantification, from global and national-scale inventories to landscape- and farm-scale measurement. The inherent features of agriculture and especially smallholder farming have made quantification expensive and complicated, as farming systems and farmers' practices are diverse and impermanent and exhibit high temporal and spatial variability. Quantifying the emissions of the complex crop livestock or diverse cropping systems that characterize smallholder systems presents particular challenges. New ideas, methods, and uses of technology are needed to address these challenges. Many papers in this special issue synthesize the state of the art in their respective fields, analyze gaps, identify innovations, and make recommendations for improving quantification. Special attention is given to methods appropriate to low-income countries, where strategies are needed for getting robust data with extremely limited resources in order to support national mitigation planning within widely accepted standards and thus provide access to essential international support, including climate funding. Managing agricultural emissions needs to occur in tandem with managing for agricultural productivity, resilience to climate change, and ecosystem impacts. Management decisions and priorities will require measures and information that identify GHG efficiencies in production and reduce inputs without reducing yields, while addressing climate resilience and maintaining other essential environmental services, such as water quality and support for pollinators. Another set of papers in this issue considers the critical synergies and tradeoffs possible between these multiple objectives of mitigation, resilience, and production efficiency to help us understand how we need to tackle these in our quantification systems. Significant capacity to quantify greenhouse gases is already built, and with some near-term strategic investment, could become an increasingly robust and useful tool for planning and development in the agricultural sector around the world. Acknowledgments The Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Program of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, the Technical Working Group on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (T-AGG) at Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have come together to guide the development of this focus issue and associated activities and papers, given their common desire to improve our understanding of the state of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification and to advance ideas for building data and methods that will help mitigation policy and programs move forward around the world. We thank the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for their support of this initiative. The project has been developed with guidance from an esteemed steering group of experts and users of mitigation information (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/international-project). Many of the papers in this issue were commissioned. Authors of each of the commissioned papers met with guest editors at FAO in Rome in April 2012 to further develop their ideas, synthesize state of the art knowledge and generate new ideas (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/events-and-presentations). Additional interesting and important research has come forward through the general call for papers and has been incorporated into this issue. References CCAFS (Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security) 2011 Victories for food and farming in Durban climate deals Press Release 13 December 2011 (http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/press-releases/victories-food-and-farming-durban-climate-deals) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) 2009 Expert consultation on GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors (Rome: FAO) FAO 2011 Linking Sustainability and Climate Financing: Implications for Agriculture (Rome: FAO) FAO 2012 FAOSTAT online database (http://faostat.fao.org/) Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases 2012 www.globalresearchalliance.org/ Herold M and Skutsch M 2011 Monitoring, reporting and verification for national REDD+ programmes: two proposals Environ. Res. Lett. 6 014002 Hosonuma N, Herold M, De Sy V, De Fries R S, Brockhaus M, Verchot L, Angelsen A and Romijn E 2012 An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044009 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) IPCC 2003 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (Hayama: IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme) IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme ed H S Eggleston et al (Hayama: IGES) IPCC 2012 IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB) (www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/main.php) Kissinger G, Herold M and De Sy V 2012 Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers (Vancouver: Lexeme Consulting) (www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/tackling-climate-change/international-climate-change/6316-drivers-deforestation-report.pdf) Murphy D, McCandless M and Drexhage J 2010 Expanding Agriculture's Role in the International Climate Change Regime: Capturing the Opportunities (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development) Nihart A 2012 unpublished data Olander L, Wollenberg L and Van de Bogert A 2013 Understanding the users and uses of agricultural greenhouse gas information CCAFS/NI T-AGG Report (in progress) Olander L P and Haugen-Kozyra K with contributions from Del Grosso S, Izaurralde C, Malin D, Paustian K and Salas W 2011 Using Biogeochemical Process Models to Quantify Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Agricultural Management Projects (Durham, NC: Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University) (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/using-biogeochemical-process) Romijn J E, Herold M, Kooistra L, Murdiyarso D and Verchot L 2012 Assessing capacities of non-Annex I countries for national forest monitoring in the context of REDD+ Environ. Sci. Policy 20 33-48 Smith P et al 2007 Agriculture Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed B Metz, O R Davidson, P R Bosch, R Dave and L A Meyer (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Smith P et al 2008 Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363 789-813 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) 2008 Financial support provided by the Global Environment Facility for the preparation of National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention FCCC/SBI/2008/INF.10 (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/sbi/eng/inf10.pdf) UNFCCC 2012 GHG Data from UNFCCC (http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php) USDA (US Department of Agriculture) 2011 Agricultural Research Service (www.ars.usda.gov/research/programs/programs.htm?np_code=204&docid=17271) VCS (Verified Carbon Standard) 2011 New Methodology: VM0017 Sustainable Agricultural Land Management (http://v-c-s.org/SALM_methodology_approved) * We dedicate this special issue to the memory of Daniel Martino, a generous leader in greenhouse gas quantification and accounting from agriculture, land-use change, and forestry.

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Daily black carbon emissions from fires in northern Eurasia for 2002-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Wei Min; Petkov, Alexander; Nordgren, Bryce L.; Corley, Rachel E.; Silverstein, Robin P.; Urbanski, Shawn P.; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Kinder, Bradley L.

2016-12-01

Black carbon (BC) emitted from fires in northern Eurasia is transported and deposited on ice and snow in the Arctic and can accelerate its melting during certain times of the year. Thus, we developed a high spatial resolution (500 m × 500 m) dataset to examine daily BC emissions from fires in this region for 2002-2015. Black carbon emissions were estimated based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover maps and detected burned areas, the Forest Inventory Survey of the Russian Federation, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map for the year 2000, and vegetation specific BC emission factors. Annual BC emissions from northern Eurasian fires varied greatly, ranging from 0.39 Tg in 2010 to 1.82 Tg in 2015, with an average of 0.71 ± 0.37 Tg from 2002 to 2015. During the 14-year period, BC emissions from forest fires accounted for about two-thirds of the emissions, followed by grassland fires (18 %). Russia dominated the BC emissions from forest fires (92 %) and central and western Asia was the major region for BC emissions from grassland fires (54 %). Overall, Russia contributed 80 % of the total BC emissions from fires in northern Eurasia. Black carbon emissions were the highest in the years 2003, 2008, and 2012. Approximately 58 % of the BC emissions from fires occurred in spring, 31 % in summer, and 10 % in fall. The high emissions in spring also coincide with the most intense period of ice and snow melting in the Arctic.

HCFC-142b emissions in China: An inventory for 2000 to 2050 basing on bottom-up and top-down methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jiarui; Li, Li; Su, Shenshen; Hu, Jianxin; Wu, Jing; Wu, Yusheng; Fang, Xuekun

2014-05-01

1-Chloro-1,1-difluoroethane (HCFC-142b) is both ozone depleting substance included in the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) and potent greenhouse gas with high global warming potential. As one of the major HCFC-142b consumption and production countries in the world, China's control action will contribute to both mitigating climate change and protecting ozone layer. Estimating China's HCFC-142b emission is a crucial step for understanding its emission status, drawing up phasing-out plan and evaluating mitigation effect. Both the bottom-up and top-down method were adopted in this research to estimate HCFC-142b emissions from China. Results basing on different methods were compared to test the effectiveness of two methods and validate inventory's reliability. Firstly, a national bottom-up emission inventory of HCFC-142b for China during 2000-2012 was established based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the Montreal Protocol, showing that in contrast to the downward trend revealed by existing results, HCFC-142b emissions kept increasing from 0.1 kt/yr in 2000 to the peak of 14.4 kt/yr in 2012. Meanwhile a top-down emission estimation was also developed using interspecies correlation method. By correlating atmospheric mixing ratio data of HCFC-142b and reference substance HCFC-22 sampled from four representative cities (Beijing, Hangzhou, Lanzhou and Guangzhou, for northern, eastern, western and southern China, respectively), China's HCFC-142b emission in 2012 was calculated. It was 16.24(13.90-18.58) kt, equivalent to 1.06 kt ODP and 37 Tg CO2-eq, taking up 9.78% (ODP) of total HCFCs emission in China or 30.5% of global HCFC-142b emission. This result was 12.7% higher than that in bottom-up inventory. Possible explanations were discussed. The consistency of two results lend credit to methods effectiveness and results reliability. Finally, future HCFC-142b emission was projected to 2050. Emission might experience a continuous increase from 14.9 kt/yr to 97.2 kt/yr under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, while a 90% reduction would be obtained by fulfilling the Montreal Protocol, namely an accumulative mitigation of 1578 kt from 2013 to 2050, equal to 103 kt ODP, and 3504 Tg CO2 emissions. Therefore, China will contribute tremendously to the worldwide ozone protection and global warming mitigation by successfully phasing out HCFC-142b according to the Montreal Protocol schedule.

LandscapeDNDC used to model nitrous oxide emissions from soils under an oak forest in southern England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cade, Shirley; Clemitshaw, Kevin; Lowry, David; Yamulki, Sirwan; Casella, Eric; Molina, Saul; Haas, Edwin; Kiese, Ralf

2013-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas, having a global warming potential of approximately 300 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2), and plays a significant role in depleting stratospheric ozone. Its principal source is microbial activity in soils and waters. Measured values of N2O emissions from soils show high temporal dynamics and a large range as a result of inter-related physico-chemical factors affecting the microbial processes, thus making predictions difficult. Emissions often occur in pulses following re-wetting, frost-thaw or management events such as N-fertilization, which further complicates predictions. Process-based models have been developed to help understand this emission variability and as potential tools for IPCC Tier 3 reporting on national emission inventories. Forests are promoted as sinks for CO2 and can be used as renewable sources of energy or longer term CO2 storage if timber is used in products such as in construction and furniture, provided appropriate replanting takes place. It is important that the effect of any changes in forest management and land use as a result of a desire to reduce CO2 emissions does not increase N2O emissions from forest soils, which are still poorly understood, compared to agricultural soils. LandscapeDNDC (Haas et al 2012) has been developed as a process-oriented model, based on the biogeochemical model, DNDC (Li et al, 1992), in order to simulate biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere exchanges at site and regional scales. It can model the carbon and nitrogen turnover and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of forest, agricultural and grassland ecosystems, and allows modelling of impacts of regional land use change over time. This study uses data (including forest growth, GHG emissions and soil moisture) from an oak forest, known as the Straits Enclosure, at Alice Holt in Hampshire, where extensive measurements have been made by Forest Research since 1995. It involves validation of the site scale model and internal parameters of LandscapeDNDC for use with an oak forest in SE England and as a result facilitates the broadening of its application. Modelled N2O soil emissions are compared with measurements from soil chambers in the forest. HAAS, E., KLATT, S., FRÖHLICH, A., KRAFT, P., WERNER, C., KIESE, R., GROTE, R., BREUER, L. and BUTTERBACH-BAHL, K., 2012. LandscapeDNDC: a process model for simulation of biosphere-atmosphere-hydrosphere exchange processes at site and regional scale. Landscape Ecology, , pp. 1-22. LI, C., FROLKING, S. and FROLKING, T.A., 1992. A model of nitrous oxide evolution from soil driven by rainfall events: 1. Model structure and sensitivity. J.Geophys.Res, 97(D9), pp. 9759-9776.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wein, Anne M.; Liu, Shuguang; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengleter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and landmanagement activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

Identifying Crucial Issues in Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Motoyoshi; Greve, Ralf; Hara, Toshika; Watanabe, Yutaka W.; Ohmura, Atsumu; Ito, Akihiko; Kawamiya, Michio

2009-01-01

Drastic Change in the Earth System During Global Warming; Sapporo, Japan, 24 June 2008; The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore indicates that global warming is recognized as a real phenomenon critical to human beings. However, humanity's knowledge concerning global warming is based on an uncertainty larger than 50% in the warming rate during the past century. Therefore, scientific clarification is needed to understand important mechanisms that potentially produce positive feedbacks in the Earth system-such mechanisms must be better understood before scientists can develop more reliable predictions. To plan for the future, a symposium was organized at Japan's Hokkaido University in association with the G8 Summit, where the most recent updates on the five urgent issues in climate science were discussed. These issues, considered to be crucial as severe impacts on human society continue to rise, included (1) causes and magnitude of sea level rise; (2) decay of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; (3) disappearance of the summer Arctic sea ice; (4) carbon uptake or emission by the terrestrial ecosystem; and (5) marine ecosystem change resulting in carbon emissions.

75 FR 3516 - Invitation for Recommendations for U.S. Authors and Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-21

... Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ACTION... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of State invites recommendations for... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be developed and finalized over the coming four years...

Future Projections of Air Temperature and Precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA Domain by Using RegCM4.3.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2015-04-01

In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 - 2035, 2046 - 2065, and 2081 - 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).

Emissions of Water and Carbon Dioxide from Fossil-Fuel Combustion Contribute Directly to Ocean Mass and Volume Increases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skuce, A. G.

2014-12-01

The direct, non-climate, contribution of carbon dioxide and water emissions from fossil-fuel (FF) combustion to the volume and mass of the oceans has been omitted from estimates of sea-level rise (SLR) in IPCC reports. Following the method of Gornitz et al. (1997), H2O emissions are estimated using carbon emissions from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, along with typical carbon and hydrogen contents of FF. Historic H2O emissions from 1750 to 2010 amount to 430 ±50 PgH2O, equivalent to 1.2 ±0.2 mmSLR. Sometime in this decade the volume of H2O from historic FF combustion will exceed the volume of Lake Erie (480 km3). CO2 dissolved in the ocean increases the seawater volume by 31-33 mL mol-1 CO2. From 1750 to 2010, 370 ±70 PgCO2 from FF combustion has dissolved in the oceans, causing 0.7 ±0.2 mmSLR. Combined H2O+CO2emissions from FF have therefore added 1.9 ±0.4 mm to sea levels in the Industrial Era. Combustion of FF in 2010 resulted in emissions of 32 PgCO2 and 12 ±1 PgH2O. SLR contributions for that year from FF emissions were 0.033 ±0.005 mm from H2O and 0.011±0.003 mm from dissolved CO2, a total rate of 0.044 ±0.008 mm yr-1. Emissions incorporated in socio-economic models underlying the RCP 8.5 and 2.6 scenarios are used along with concentration-driven CMIP5 Earth System Models results to estimate future sea-level rise from FF combustion. From 2010 to 2100, RCP8.5 and 2.6 models respectively produce 9 ±2 mmSLR and 5 ±1 mmSLR from FF H2O+CO2. For perspective, these amounts are larger than the modelled contributions from loss of glaciers in the Andes. The direct contribution of FF emissions to SLR is small (1-2%) relative to current rates and projected estimates under RCP scenarios up to 2100. The magnitude is similar to SLR estimates from other minor sources such as the melting of floating ice, land-use emissions and produced water from oil operations, none of which are currently included in SLR assessments. As uncertainties in observations and contributions are reduced, small contribution factors, hitherto neglected, will become relatively more important in balancing the books. ReferenceGornitz, V., C. Rosenzweig, and D. Hillel, 1997: Effects of anthropogenic intervention in the land hydrological cycle on global sea level rise. Global and Planetary Change, 14, 147-161. DOI: 10.1016/S0921-8181(96)00008-2

Impacts of aerosol-cloud interactions on past and future changes in tropospheric composition

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unger, N.; Menon, S.; Shindell, D. T.

2009-02-02

The development of effective emissions control policies that are beneficial to both climate and air quality requires a detailed understanding of all the feedbacks in the atmospheric composition and climate system. We perform sensitivity studies with a global atmospheric composition-climate model to assess the impact of aerosols on tropospheric chemistry through their modification on clouds, aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The model includes coupling between both tropospheric gas-phase and aerosol chemistry and aerosols and liquid-phase clouds. We investigate past impacts from preindustrial (PI) to present day (PD) and future impacts from PD to 2050 (for the moderate IPCC A1B scenario) that embracemore » a wide spectrum of precursor emission changes and consequential ACI. The aerosol indirect effect (AIE) is estimated to be -2.0 Wm{sup -2} for PD-PI and -0.6 Wm{sup -2} for 2050-PD, at the high end of current estimates. Inclusion of ACI substantially impacts changes in global mean methane lifetime across both time periods, enhancing the past and future increases by 10% and 30%, respectively. In regions where pollution emissions increase, inclusion of ACI leads to 20% enhancements in in-cloud sulfate production and {approx}10% enhancements in sulfate wet deposition that is displaced away from the immediate source regions. The enhanced in-cloud sulfate formation leads to larger increases in surface sulfate across polluted regions ({approx}10-30%). Nitric acid wet deposition is dampened by 15-20% across the industrialized regions due to ACI allowing additional re-release of reactive nitrogen that contributes to 1-2 ppbv increases in surface ozone in outflow regions. Our model findings indicate that ACI must be considered in studies of methane trends and projections of future changes to particulate matter air quality.« less

How Cities Breathe: Ground-Referenced, Airborne Hyperspectral Imaging Precursor Measurements To Space-Based Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leifer, Ira; Tratt, David; Quattrochi, Dale; Bovensmann, Heinrich; Gerilowski, Konstantin; Buchwitz, Michael; Burrows, John

2013-01-01

Methane's (CH4) large global warming potential (Shindell et al., 2012) and likely increasing future emissions due to global warming feedbacks emphasize its importance to anthropogenic greenhouse warming (IPCC, 2007). Furthermore, CH4 regulation has far greater near-term climate change mitigation potential versus carbon dioxide CO2, the other major anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (Shindell et al., 2009). Uncertainties in CH4 budgets arise from the poor state of knowledge of CH4 sources - in part from a lack of sufficiently accurate assessments of the temporal and spatial emissions and controlling factors of highly variable anthropogenic and natural CH4 surface fluxes (IPCC, 2007) and the lack of global-scale (satellite) data at sufficiently high spatial resolution to resolve sources. Many important methane (and other trace gases) sources arise from urban and mega-urban landscapes where anthropogenic activities are centered - most of humanity lives in urban areas. Studying these complex landscape tapestries is challenged by a wide and varied range of activities at small spatial scale, and difficulty in obtaining up-to-date landuse data in the developed world - a key desire of policy makers towards development of effective regulations. In the developing world, challenges are multiplied with additional political access challenges. As high spatial resolution satellite and airborne data has become available, activity mapping applications have blossomed - i.e., Google maps; however, tap a minute fraction of remote sensing capabilities due to limited (three band) spectral information. Next generation approaches that incorporate high spatial resolution hyperspectral and ultraspectral data will allow detangling of the highly heterogeneous usage megacity patterns by providing diagnostic identification of chemical composition from solids (refs) to gases (refs). To properly enable these next generation technologies for megacity include atmospheric radiative transfer modeling the complex and often aerosol laden, humid, urban microclimates, atmospheric transport and profile monitoring, spatial resolution, temporal cycles (diurnal and seasonal which involve interactions with the surrounding environment diurnal and seasonal cycles) and representative measurement approaches given traffic realities. Promising approaches incorporate contemporaneous airborne remote sensing and in situ measurements, nocturnal surface surveys, with ground station measurement

Assessing the Impact of Aircraft Emissions on the Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S. R.; Anderson, D. E.

1999-01-01

For the past decade, the NASA Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) has been the U.S. focal point for research on aircraft effects. In conjunction with U.S. basic research programs, AEAP and concurrent European research programs have driven remarkable progress reports released in 1999 [IPCC, 1999; Kawa et al., 1999]. The former report primarily focuses on aircraft effects in the upper troposphere, with some discussion on stratospheric impacts. The latter report focuses entirely on the stratosphere. The current status of research regarding aviation effects on stratospheric ozone and climate, as embodied by the findings of these reports, is reviewed. The following topics are addressed: Aircraft Emissions, Pollution Transport, Atmospheric Chemistry, Polar Processes, Climate Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft, Subsonic Aircraft Effect on the Stratosphere, Calculations of the Supersonic Impact on Ozone and Sensitivity to Input Conditions.

Hydroelectric production from Brazil's São Francisco River could cease due to climate change and inter-annual variability.

PubMed

de Jong, Pieter; Tanajura, Clemente Augusto Souza; Sánchez, Antonio Santos; Dargaville, Roger; Kiperstok, Asher; Torres, Ednildo Andrade

2018-09-01

By the end of this century higher temperatures and significantly reduced rainfall are projected for the Brazilian North and Northeast (NE) regions due to Global Warming. This study examines the impact of these long-term rainfall changes on the Brazilian Northeast's hydroelectric production. Various studies that use different IPCC models are examined in order to determine the average rainfall reduction by the year 2100 in comparison to baseline data from the end of the 20th century. It was found that average annual rainfall in the NE region could decrease by approximately 25-50% depending on the emissions scenario. Analysis of historical rainfall data in the São Francisco basin during the last 57years already shows a decline of more than 25% from the 1961-90 long-term average. Moreover, average annual rainfall in the basin has been below its long-term average every year bar one since 1992. If this declining trend continues, rainfall reduction in the basin could be even more severe than the most pessimistic model projections. That is, the marked drop in average rainfall projected for 2100, based on the IPCC high emissions scenario, could actually eventuate before 2050. Due to the elasticity factor between rainfall and streamflow and because of increased amounts of irrigation in the São Francisco basin, the reduction in the NE's average hydroelectric production in the coming decades could be double the predicted decline in rainfall. Conversely, it is estimated that wind power potential in the Brazilian NE will increase substantially by 2100. Therefore both wind and solar power will need to be significantly exploited in order for the NE region to sustainably replace lost hydroelectric production. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continuous measurements of N2O emissions from arable fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallman, Magdalena; Lammirato, Carlo; Rütting, Tobias; Delin, Sofia; Weslien, Per; Klemedtsson, Leif

2017-04-01

Agriculture represents 59 % of the anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, according to the IPCC (Ciais et al. 2013). N2O emissions are typically irregular and vary widely in time and space, which makes it difficult to get a good representation of the emissions (Henault et al. 2012), particularly if measurements have low frequency and/or cover only a short time period. Manual measurements are, for practical reasons, often short-term and low-frequent, or restricted to periods where emissions are expected to be high, e.g. after fertilizing. However, the nature of N2O emissions, being largely unpredictable, calls for continuous or near-continuous measurements over long time periods. So far, rather few long-term, high resolution measurements of N2O emissions from arable fields are reported; among them are Flessa et al. (2002) and Senapati et al. (2016). In this study, we have a two-year data set (2015-2017) with hourly measurements from ten automatic chambers, covering unfertilized controls as well as different nitrogen fertilizer treatments. Grain was produced on the field, and effects of tillage, harvest and other cropping measures were covered. What we can see from the experiment is that (a) the unfertilized control plots seem to follow the same emission pattern as the fertilized plots, at a level similar to the standard mineral fertilized plots (120 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and (b) freeze/thaw emissions are comparable in size to emissions after fertilizing. These two findings imply that the importance of fertilizing to the overall N2O emissions from arable soils may be smaller than previously expected. References: Ciais, P., C. Sabine, G. Bala, L. Bopp, V. Brovkin, J. Canadell et al. 2013: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA. Flessa, H., R. Ruser, R. Schilling, N. Loftfield, J.C. Munch, E.A. Kaiser and F. Beese, 2002. N2O and CH4 fluxes in potato fields: automated measurement, management effects and temporal variation. Geoderma 105(3-4): 307-325. Hénault, C., A. Grossel, B. Mary, M. Roussel and J. Léonard, 2012. Nitrous Oxide Emission by Agricultural Soils: A Review of Spatial and Temporal Variability for Mitigation. Pedosphere 22(4): 426-433. Senapati, N., A. Chabbi, A. Faé Giostri, J. B. Yeluripati and P. Smith, 2016. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions frommown-grass and grain-cropping systems: Testing and sensitivity analysis of DailyDayCent using high frequency measurements. Science of the Total Environment 572: 955-977.

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.

Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

PubMed

Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

2010-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests.

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Tianyi; Liu, Xiaohong; Ma, Po-Lun; Zhang, Qiang; Li, Zhanqing; Jiang, Yiquan; Zhang, Fang; Zhao, Chuanfeng; Yang, Xin; Wu, Fang; Wang, Yuying

2018-02-01

Global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results are compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22-28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be -5.02, -18.47, and 13.45 W m-2, respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by -0.91, -3.48, and 2.57 W m-2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.

IPCC Report Calls Climate Changes Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-10-01

Warming of the Earth's climate "is unequivocal and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia," according to a new assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 27 September summary for policy makers of IPCC's report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" also states that "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2014-06-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a robust and plausible projection of what future emissions may be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-09-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the Former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a more realistic projection of what future emissions are likely to be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

2013-12-01

In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable details on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). We project that global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector will be in the range of 3.0-4.0 Gt across the four scenarios in the year 2030. Corresponding global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM). At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions in the year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future. By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute the greatest fraction in Asia and the Former USSR, while on-road vehicles make the largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; for NOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in most regions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drive technology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent a more realistic projection of what future emissions are likely to be. These results have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols that influence air quality, human health, and climate change.

Projections of atmospheric nitrous oxide under scenarios of improved agriculture and industrial efficiencies, diet modification, and representative concentration pathways (RCPs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, E. A.

2011-12-01

Atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide (N2O), now at about 325ppb, have been increasing since the Industrial Revolution, as livestock herds increased globally and as use of synthetic-N fertilizers increased after WWII. The agricultural sector produces 70-80% of anthropogenic N2O. Significantly reducing those emissions while also improving the diets of the growing global human population will be very challenging. Increases in atmospheric N2O since 1860 are consistent with emissions factors of 2.5% of annual fertilizer-N usage and 2.0% of annual manure-N production being converted to N2O. These factors include both direct and indirect emissions attributable to these sources. Here I present projections of N2O emissions for a variety of scenarios including: (1) FAO population/diet scenarios with no changes in emission factors; (2) per-capita protein consumption in the developed world declines to 1980 levels by 2030 and only half of that is obtained from animal products, thus cutting global manure production by about 20%; (3) improvements in N-use efficiency and manure management reduce the emission factors by 50% by 2050; (4) same as 3 but industrial and transportation emissions are similarly reduced by 50% by 2050; and (5) all mitigations together. These projections are then compared to the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) developed for the IPCC-AR5. With no further mitigation, the projections are consistent with RCP8.5, with atmospheric N2O at 368 ppb in 2050. RCP8.5 is a reasonable representation of N2O concentrations with growing agricultural production to feed a growing and better-nourished population, without improvements in agricultural efficiencies or changes in developed world diets. Major reductions in per-capita meat consumption in the developed world reduce projected 2050 N2O to 256 ppb, which is in line with RCP6.0. Cutting emission factors in half but without diet change would also lower projected 2050 N2O to 252ppb. Adding 50% improvements in other sectors reduces the 2050 N2O to 350ppm, which is in line with RCP4.5. Combining these improved efficiencies with reduced meat consumption results in leveling off of atmospheric N2O at 341 ppb in 2050, which achieves the most optimistic scenario of RCP3PD. All of these scenarios involve rather optimistic assumptions. Only the combination of technological and management improvements that increase N-use efficiencies by crops and decrease losses from manure management and significant reduction in meat consumption in the developed world can achieve stabilization of atmospheric N2O by 2050.

Global Warming Potential and Eutrophication Potential of Biofuel Feedstock Crops Produced in Florida, Measured Under Different Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Izursa, Jose-Luis; Hanlon, Edward; Amponsah, Nana

2013-02-15

The agriculture sector is in a growing need to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation techniques to reduce the enhanced greenhouse effect. The challenge to the sector is not only to reduce net emissions but also increase production to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and biofuel. This study focuses on the changes in the GHG balance of three biofuel feedstock (biofuel sugarcane, energy-cane and sweet sorghum) considering changes caused by the adoption of conservationist practices such as reduced tillage, use of controlled-release fertilizers or when cultivation areas are converted from burned harvest to green harvest. Based on the Intergovernmental Panelmore » on Climate Change (IPCC) (2006) balance and the Tools for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts (TRACI) characterization factors published by the EPA, the annual emission balance includes use energy (diesel and electricity), equipment, and ancillary materials, according to the mean annual consumption of supplies per hectare. The total amounts of GWP were 2740, 1791, and 1910 kg CO2e ha-1 y-1 for biofuel sugarcane, energy-cane and sweet sorghum, respectively, when produced with conventional tillage and sugarcane was burned prior to harvesting. Applying reduced tillage practices, the GHG emissions reduced to 13% for biofuel sugarcane, 23% for energy-cane and 8% for sweet sorghum. A similar decrease occurs when a controlled-release fertilizer practice is adopted, which helps reduce the total emission balance in 5%, 12% and 19% for biofuel sugarcane, energy-cane and sweet sorghum, respectively and a 31% average reduction in eutrophication potential. Moreover, the GHG emissions for biofuel sugarcane, with the adoption of green harvest, would result in a smaller GHG balance of 1924 kg CO2e ha-1 y-1, providing an effect strategy for GHG mitigation while still providing a profitable yield in Florida.« less

Geoethics disgraced by Copernicus in its desperate act of covering up for the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

All my life I have put observational facts in the centre. This is what Leonardo da Vinci called "to read the book of mother Earth". For a geologist this is very natural because this is the core of the geological profession. The IPCC, on the other hand, put all credits on models and scenarios. One of its founders and its first president, Bert Bolin, at a debate in the Geophysical Society of Sweden in 2001, admitted (quotation): "you can order whatever scenario you wish". With this as a background, we can put a recent action by Copernicus at a test with respect to geoethics and normal decency. The idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts". The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system. This may be held as a benchmark event in our understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. Furthermore, they noted two implications of this: partly that the old hypothesis was now lifted to a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm, and partly that we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC". "We were alarmed by the second implication", Martin Rasmussen, VD of Copernicus, stated, and took the unbelievable decision immediately to close down the entire journal. This happened on January 17 without any discussion with the editors (and with two papers in the process of being printed). Suddenly, by this decision, we were thrown back in the evolution of humanism and culture to the stage of inquisition and books burning? Still, the notion that we, from a planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction point of view, are on our way down into a grand solar minimum is vital in order to understand our near future: we the solar-terrestrial scientists say "cooling" whilst the IPCC says "warming". To debate is a vital part of science. To forbid and even close down a journal because of an inevitable conclusion which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC" is most unscientific and unethical.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Chou, Ming-Dah

1993-01-01

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Effect of Carbon-Cycle Uncertainty on Estimates of the 1.5oC Carbon Budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengis, N.; Jalbert, J.; Partanen, A. I.; Matthews, D.

2017-12-01

In December 2015, the participants of the COP21 agreed to pursue efforts to limit global temperature increase to 1.5oC relative to the preindustrial level. A robust estimate of the carbon budget for this temperature target is one precondition for well-informed political discussions. These estimates, however, depend on Earth system models and need to account for model inherent uncertainties. Here, we quantify the effect of carbon cycle uncertainty within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Using an Bayesian inversion approach we obtain a probabilistic estimate for the 1.5oC carbon budget of 66 PgC with a range of 20 to 112 PgC. This estimate is in good agreement with the IPCC's estimate, and additionally provides a probabilistic range accounting for uncertainties in the natural carbon sinks. Furthermore our results suggest, that for a long-term temperature stabilization at 1.5oC, negative fossil fuel emissions in the order of 1 PgC yr-1 would be needed. Two effects cause the fossil fuel emissions during temperature stabilization to turn negative: 1) The reduced uptake potential of the natural carbon sinks, which arises from increasing ocean temperatures, and the fact that the land turns from a net carbon sink to a source. 2) The residual positive anthropogenic forcing in the extended scenario, which remains as high as 2.5 W m-2, until the end of 2200. In contrast to previous studies our results suggest the need for negative fossil fuel emissions for a long term temperature stabilization to compensate for residual anthropogenic forcing and a decreasing natural carbon sink potential.

Life cycle GHG evaluation of organic rice production in northern Thailand.

PubMed

Yodkhum, Sanwasan; Gheewala, Shabbir H; Sampattagul, Sate

2017-07-01

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is one of the serious international environmental issues that can lead to severe damages such as climate change, sea level rise, emerging disease and many other impacts. Rice cultivation is associated with emissions of potent GHGs such as methane and nitrous oxide. Thai rice has been massively exported worldwide however the markets are becoming more competitive than ever since the green market has been hugely promoted. In order to maintain the same level or enhance of competitiveness, Thai rice needs to be considered for environmentally conscious products to meet the international environmental standards. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions throughout the life cycle of rice production in order to identify the major emission sources and possible reduction strategies. In this research, the rice variety considered is Khao Dawk Mali 105 (KDML 105) cultivated by organic practices. The data sources were Don-Chiang Organic Agricultural Cooperative (DCOAC), Mae-teang district, Chiang Mai province, Thailand and the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) of Thailand with onsite records and interviews of farmers in 2013. The GHG emissions were calculated from cradle-to-farm by using the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach and the 2006 IPCC Guideline for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The functional unit is defined as 1 kg of paddy rice at farm gate. Results showed that the total GHG emissions of organic rice production were 0.58 kg CO 2 -eq per kg of paddy rice. The major source of GHG emission was from the field emissions accounting for 0.48 kg CO 2 -eq per kg of paddy rice, about 83% of total, followed by land preparation, harvesting and other stages (planting, cultivation and transport of raw materials) were 9, 5 and 3% of total, respectively. The comparative results clearly showed that the GHG emissions of organic paddy rice were considerably lower than conventional rice production due to the advantages of using organic fertilisers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

UV-VIS backscattering measurements on atmospheric particles mixture using polarization lidar coupled with numerical simulations and laboratory experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miffre, Alain; Francis, Mirvatte; Anselmo, Christophe; Rairoux, Patrick

2015-04-01

As underlined by the latest IPCC report [1], tropospheric aerosols are nowadays recognized as one of the main uncertainties affecting the Earth's climate and human health. This issue is not straightforward due to the complexity of these nanoparticles, which present a wide range of sizes, shapes and chemical composition, which vary as a function of altitude, especially in the troposphere, where strong temperature variations are encountered under different water vapour content (from 10 to 100 % relative humidity). During this oral presentation, I will first present the scientific context of this research. Then, the UV-VIS polarimeter instrument and the subsequent calibration procedure [2] will be presented, allowing quantitative evaluation of particles backscattering coefficients in the atmosphere. In this way, up to three-component particles external mixtures can be partitioned into their spherical and non-spherical components, by coupling UV-VIS depolarization lidar measurements with numerical simulations of backscattering properties specific to non-spherical particles, such as desert dust or sea-salt particles [3], by applying the T-matrix numerical code [4]. This combined methodology is new, as opposed to the traditional approach using the lidar and T-matrix methodologies separately. In complement, recent laboratory findings [5] and field applications [6] will be presented, enhancing the sensitivity of the UV-VIS polarimeter. References [1] IPCC report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, (2013). [2] G. David, A. Miffre, B. Thomas, and P. Rairoux: "Sensitive and accurate dual-wavelength UV-VIS polarization detector for optical remote sensing of tropospheric aerosols," Appl. Phys. B 108, 197-216 (2012). [3] G. David, B. Thomas, T. Nousiainen, A. Miffre and P. Rairoux: "Retrieving simulated volcanic, desert dust, and sea-salt particle properties from two / three-component particle mixtures using UV-VIS polarization Lidar and T-matrix," Atmos. Chem Phys. 13, 6757-6776 (2013). [4] M.I. Mishchenko, L.D. Travis and A.A. Lacis: "Scattering, absorption and emission of Light by small particles," 3rd edition, Cambridge University Press UK, (2002). [5] G. David, B. Thomas, E. Coillet, A. Miffre, and P. Rairoux, Polarization-resolved exact light backscattering by an ensemble of particles in air, Opt. Exp., 21, No. 16, 18624-18639, (2013). [6] G. David, B. Thomas, Y. Dupart, B. D'Anna, C. George, A. Miffre and P. Rairoux, UV polarization lidar for remote sensing new particles formation in the atmosphere, Opt. Exp., 22, A1009-A1022, (2014).

Comparing bottom-up and top-down approaches at the landscape scale, including agricultural activities and water systems, at the Roskilde Fjord, Denmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lequy, Emeline; Ibrom, Andreas; Ambus, Per; Massad, Raia-Silvia; Markager, Stiig; Asmala, Eero; Garnier, Josette; Gabrielle, Benoit; Loubet, Benjamin

2015-04-01

The greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) mainly originates in direct emissions from agricultural soils due to microbial reactions stimulated by the use of nitrogen fertilisers. Indirect N2O emissions from water systems due to nitrogen leaching and deposition from crop fields range between 26 and 37% of direct agricultural emissions, indicating their potential importance and uncertainty (Reay et al. 2012). The study presented here couples a top-down approach with eddy covariance (EC) and a bottom-up approach using different models and measurements. A QCL sensor at 96-m height on a tall tower measures the emissions of N2O from 1100 ha of crop fields and from the south part of the Roskilde fjord, in a 5-km radius area around the tall tower at Roskilde, Denmark. The bottom-up approach includes ecosystem modelling with CERES-EGC for the crops and PaSIM for the grasslands, and the N2O fluxes from the Roskilde fjord are derived from N2O sea water concentration measurements. EC measurements are now available from July to December 2014, and indicate a magnitude of the emissions from the crop fields around 0.2 mg N2O-N m-2 day-1 (range -9 to 5) which is consistent with the CERES-EGC simulations and calculations using IPCC emission factors. N2O fluxes from the Roskilde fjord in May and July indicated quite constant N2O concentrations around 0.1 µg N L-1 despite variations of nitrate and ammonium in the fjord. The calculated fluxes from these concentrations and the tall tower measurements consistently ranged between -7 and 6 mg N2O-N m-2 day-1. The study site also contains a waste water treatment plant, whose direct emissions will be measured in early 2015 using a dynamic plume tracer dispersion method (Mønster et al. 2014). A refined source attribution methodology together with more measurements and simulations of the N2O fluxes from the different land uses in this study site will provide a clearer view of the dynamics and budgets of N2O at the regional scale. The complementarity between these bottom-up and top-down approaches and their usefulness to disentangle direct and indirect N2O fluxes will also be discussed. Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the EU-FP7 InGOS project. References: Mønster JG, Samuelsson J, Kjeldsen P, Rella CW, Scheutz C. Quantifying methane emission from fugitive sources by combining tracer release and downwind measurements - A sensitivity analysis based on multiple field surveys. Waste Management. 2014 Aug;34(8):1416-28. Reay DS, Davidson EA, Smith KA, Smith P, Melillo JM, Dentener F, et al. Global agriculture and nitrous oxide emissions. Nature Clim Change. 2012 Jun;2(6):410-6.

What, Where, When, Who and How: Accounting for Biogenic CO2 Emissions Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohrel, S. B.

2013-12-01

The world is facing a future with a changing climate as well as increasing energy needs. Many countries, including the United States, are therefore considering an increased role of biomass in domestic energy portfolios. Accounting for emissions related to biomass production and use for energy is a complex issue: determining the extent to which biomass utilization can contribute to meeting energy needs while not contributing additional GHG emissions to the atmosphere necessitates further research. Such analysis becomes more challenging when evaluating biogenic feedstocks with long rotations (i.e., woody biomass). Detailed analysis and new accounting methods are needed in order to better assess and understand the potential implications of increased bioenergy utilization in the United States energy portfolio. In response to the EPA's 2011 Draft Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources, the Biogenic Carbon Emissions Panel (BCE Panel) appointed by the Science Advisory Board (2013) found that 'Carbon neutrality cannot be assumed for all biomass energy a priori. There are circumstances in which biomass is grown, harvested and combusted in a carbon neutral fashion but carbon neutrality is not an appropriate a priori assumption; it is a conclusion that should be reached only after considering a particular feedstock's production and consumption cycle. There is considerable heterogeneity in feedstock types, sources and production methods and thus net biogenic carbon emissions will vary considerably.' In that light, this study discusses the current policy discussion on biogenic feedstock use for energy in the United States. It then evaluates the question: how can we account for stationary source biogenic CO2 emissions while considering the biological cycling of carbon on the biogenic feedstock production landscape? The analysis discusses current biogenic feedstock usage in the U.S. and potential future impacts of increased biogenic feedstock production on U.S. land use, supply of non-energy commodities (e.g., timber, food crops), and related GHG emission fluxes. This paper first assesses current methods for accounting for land use sector biogenic CO2 emissions (i.e., IPCC approach). Based on the finding that no current methods exist for linking stationary source emissions with the land producing biogenic feedstocks, a unique method is needed that takes into consideration the biological cycling of carbon when accounting for biogenic emissions from energy use. The paper then describes the key technical and scientific considerations that should be taken in account, such as: the implications of baseline chosen; the important roles of temporal and spatial scales; emissions fluxes during feedstock production as well as transportation, storage and processing; the role of land use management and change, etc. It also discusses how these considerations can vary depending on feedstock type (e.g., long versus short rotation).

Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, K.

2017-12-01

Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries.

PubMed

Mach, Katharine J; Freeman, Patrick T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Field, Christopher B

2016-08-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain.

Agricultural land abandonment in Mediterranean environment provides ecosystem services via soil carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Novara, Agata; Gristina, Luciano; Sala, Giovanna; Galati, Antonino; Crescimanno, Maria; Cerdà, Artemi; Badalamenti, Emilio; La Mantia, Tommaso

2017-01-15

Abandonment of agricultural land leads to several consequences for ecosystem functions. Agricultural abandonment may be a significant and low cost strategy for carbon sequestration and mitigation of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions due to the vegetation recovery and increase in soil organic matter. The aim of this study was to: (i) estimate the influence of different Soil Regions (areas characterized by a typical climate and parent material association) and Bioclimates (zones with homogeneous climatic regions and thermotype indices) on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics after agricultural land abandonment; and (ii) to analyse the efficiency of the agri-environment policy (agri-environment measures) suggested by the European Commission in relation to potential SOC stock ability in the Sicilian Region (Italy). In order to quantify the effects of agricultural abandonment on SOC, a dataset with original data that was sampled in Sicily and existing data from the literature were analysed according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) methodology. Results showed that abandonment of cropland soils increased SOC stock by 9.03MgCha -1 on average, ranging from 5.4MgCha -1 to 26.7MgCha -1 in relation to the Soil Region and Bioclimate. The estimation of SOC change after agricultural use permitted calculation of the payments for ecosystem service (PES) of C sequestration after agricultural land abandonment in relation to environmental benefits, increasing in this way the efficiency of PES. Considering the 14,337ha of abandoned lands in Sicily, the CO 2 emission as a whole was reduced by 887,745Mg CO 2 . Therefore, it could be concluded that abandoned agricultural fields represents a valid opportunity to mitigate agriculture sector emissions in Sicily. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Séférian, Roland; Rocher, Matthias; Guivarch, Céline; Colin, Jeanne

2018-05-01

To limit global warming to well below 2 ° most of the IPCC-WGIII future stringent mitigation pathways feature a massive global-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) before the end of the century. The global-scale deployment of NETs like Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can be hampered by climate constraints that are not taken into account by Integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to produce those pathways. Among the various climate constraints, water scarcity appears as a potential bottleneck for future land-based mitigation strategies and remains largely unexplored. Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an IAM under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. We show that all stylized mitigation pathways studied in this work limit warming below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C by 2100 but all exhibit a temperature overshoot exceeding 2 °C after 2050. According to the IAM, a subset of 17 emission pathways are feasible when evaluated in terms of socio-economic and technological constraints. The ESM however shows that water scarcity would limit the deployment of BECCS in all the mitigation pathways assessed in this work. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the water resources under climate change can exert a significant constraint on BECCS deployment before 2050. In 2100, the BECCS water needs could represent more than 30% of the total precipitation in several regions like Europe or Asia.

Two years monitoring of soil N_{2}O emissions on durum wheat in a Mediterranean area: the effect of tillage intensity and N-fertilizer rate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpi, Iride; Bosco, Simona; Triana, Federico; Di Nasso, Nicoletta Nassi o.; Laville, Patricia; Virgili, Giorgio; Bonari, Enrico

2016-04-01

Evaluating the magnitude and the key factors affecting N2O emissions from agriculture has a scientific and practical relevance, in fact emissions from agricultural and natural soils account for 56-70% of all global N2O sources (Syakila and Kroeze, 2011). Moreover, the necessity to increase the food production rate minimizing greenhouse gas emissions require a deeper understanding of the effect of the agricultural practices on direct soil emissions. Therefore, the aim of this work is to assess the effect of tillage intensity and nitrogen rate on soil N2O emissions on durum wheat. A two years monitoring campaign was carried out using a high-sensibility transportable instrument developed within the LIFE+ "Improved flux Prototypes for N2O emission from Agriculture" IPNOA project (Bosco et al., 2015; Laville et al., 2015). The project aims at improving the measurement technique of N2O flux directly in field using the flow-through non-steady state chamber technique. The monitoring campaign on durum wheat lasted for two growing seasons and two fallow periods (2013-14 and 2014-15). Treatment on the main plot was tillage intensity with two levels, ploughing and minimum tillage, and three different nitrogen rates were distributed to the subplots (N0: 0 kg ha-1, N1: 110 kg ha-1, N2: 170 kg ha-1). Ancillary measurements concerned meteorological data, soil temperature and moisture, NO3-, NH4+ soil concentration. Main results of the two years highlighted N rate as the main driver for both N2O daily flux and cumulative emissions during the growing season, while in the fallow period treatments did not affect the emission magnitude. Tillage intensity was not a key factor for N2O emissions. N2O emissions were significantly different in the two years. In particular, cumulative emissions of 2013-14 were about five times higher than in 2014-15, respectively on average 2885±260 g N-N2O ha-1 and 534±53 g N-N2O ha-1 for a similar monitoring period of about 300 days. Differences could be partially attributed to a huge difference in the rainfall amount during the two growing seasons, equal to 810 mm in the 2013-14 growing season and 441 mm in 2014-15. Emission factors for each N rate was calculated through the whole monitoring period and resulted to be in the range of 0.5-0.9% in 2013-14, while between 0.2-0.3% in 2014-15, considerably lower than the IPCC Tier 1 EF (1%). References: Bosco S., Volpi I., Nassi o Di Nasso N., Triana F., Roncucci N., Tozzini C., Villani R., Laville P., Mattei F., Virgili G., Nuvoli S., Fabbrini L., Bonari E., 2015. LIFE+IPNOA mobile prototype for the monitoring of soil N2O emissions from arable crops: first year results on durum wheat. Italian Journal of Agronomy Vol 10:669, pp 124-131. Laville P., Neri S., Continanza D., Ferrante Vero L., Bosco S., Virgili G., 2015. Cross-Validation of a mobile N2O flux prototype (IPNOA) using Micrometeorological and Chamber methods. Journal of Energy and Power Engineering 9 (2015) 375-385. Syakila A, Kroeze C., 2011. The global nitrogen budget revisited. Greenhouse Gas Meas. Manage. 1, 17-26.

Methane emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change on the Sanjiang Plain of Northeast China from 1950 to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, W.; Yu, Y. Q.

2012-05-01

Wetland loss and climate change are known to alter regional and global methane (CH4) budgets. Over the last six decades, an extensive area of marshland has been converted to cropland on the Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China, and a significant increase in air temperature has also been observed there, while the impacts on regional CH4 budgets remain uncertain. Through model simulation, we estimated the changes in CH4 emissions associated with the conversion of marshland to cropland and climate change in this area. Model simulations indicated a significant reduction of 1.1 Tg yr-1 from the 1950s to the 2000s in regional CH4 emissions. The cumulative reduction of CH4 from 1960 to 2009 was estimated to be ~36 Tg relative to the 1950s, and marshland conversion and the climate contributed 86 % and 14 % of this change, respectively. Interannual variation in precipitation (linear trend with P > 0.2) contributed to yearly fluctuations in CH4 emissions, but the relatively lower amount of precipitation over the period 1960-2009 (47 mm yr-1 lower on average than in the 1950s) contributed ~91 % of the reduction in the area-weighted CH4 flux. Global warming at a rate of 0.3 °C per decade (P < 0.001) has increased CH4 emissions significantly since the 1990s. Relative to the mean of the 1950s, the warming-induced increase in the CH4 flux has averaged 19 kg ha-1 yr-1 over the last two decades. For the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the fifth IPCC assessment report (AR5), the CH4 flux is predicted to increase by 36 %, 52 %, 78 % and 95 %, respectively, by the 2080s compared to 1961-1990 in response to climate warming and wetting.

Improving understanding of controls on spatial variability in methane fluxes in Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Scott J.; Sloan, Victoria; Phoenix, Gareth; Wagner, Robert; Oechel, Walter; Zona, Donatella

2015-04-01

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change relative to the rest of the globe, and this increase in temperature has feedback effects across hydrological and thermal regimes, plant community distribution and carbon stocks within tundra soils. Arctic wetlands account for a significant amount of methane emissions from natural ecosystems to the atmosphere and with further permafrost degradation under a warming climate, these emissions are expected to increase. Methane (CH4) is an extremely important component of the global carbon cycle with a global warming potential 28.5 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 100 year time scale (IPCC, 2013). In order to validate carbon cycle models, modelling methane at broader landscape scales is needed. To date direct measurements of methane have been sporadic in time and space which, while capturing some key controls on the spatial heterogeneity, make it difficult to accurately upscale methane emissions to the landscape and regional scales. This study investigates what is controlling the spatial heterogeneity of methane fluxes across Arctic tundra. We combined over 300 portable chamber observations from 13 micro-topographic positions (with multiple vegetation types) across three locations spanning a 300km latitudinal gradient in Northern Alaska from Barrow to Ivotuk with synchronous measurements of environmental (soil temperature, soil moisture, water table, active layer thaw depth, pH) and vegetation (plant community composition, height, sedge tiller counts) variables to evaluate key controls on methane fluxes. To assess the diurnal variation in CH4 fluxes, we also performed automated chamber measurements in one study site (Barrow) location. Multiple statistical approaches (regression tree and multiple linear regression) were used to identify key controlling variables and their interactions. Methane emissions across all sites ranged from -0.08 to 15.3 mg C-CH4 m-2 hr-1. As expected, soil moisture was the main control determining the direction and magnitude of methane flux, with methane emissions occurring in saturated micro-topographic locations and drier sites showing low rates of uptake. An interesting exception was in tussock sedge vegetation, which had a deep water table (approximately 20cm - 40cm below the soil surface) but which emitted methane in comparable quantities to saturated communities late in the growing season. This highlights the importance of plant transport and of understanding temporal variation in fluxes. Automated chamber measurements from peak and late growing season showed minimal diurnal trends in methane fluxes, indicating that short-term chamber measurements are representative of average diurnal CH4 fluxes. The breadth of environmental and vegetation variables measured across a wide spatial extent of arctic tundra vegetation communities within this study highlights the overriding controls on methane emissions and will significantly help with upscaling methane emissions from the plot scale to the landscape scale. Reference: IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO97811074153

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.

2015-12-01

The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of the IPCC. Huggel, C., Stone, D., Eicken, H., & Hansen, G. (2015). Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z. Stocker et al. (eds.) (2013) The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

The rapid disintegration of projections: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the intergovernmental panel on climate change.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Jessica; Oreskes, Naomi; Oppenheimer, Michael

2012-10-01

How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the WAIS. Second, we provide a detailed case study of the decision not to provide a WAIS prediction in the Fourth Assessment Report. Third, we discuss the implications of this outcome for the general issue of scientists and policymakers working in assessment organizations to make projections. IPCC authors were less certain about potential WAIS futures than in previous assessment reports in part because of new information, but also because of the outcome of cultural processes within the IPCC, including how people were selected for and worked together within their writing groups. It became too difficult for IPCC assessors to project the range of possible futures for WAIS due to shifts in scientific knowledge as well as in the institutions that facilitated the interpretations of this knowledge.

;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

2017-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the "degree of agreement." Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

Global carbon management using air capture and geosequestration at remote locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackner, K. S.; Goldberg, D.

2014-12-01

CO2 emissions need not only stop; according the IPCC, emissions need to turn negative. This requires means to remove CO2 from air and store it safely and permanently. We outline a combination of secure geosequestration and direct capture of CO2 from ambient air to create negative emissions at remote locations. Operation at remote sites avoids many difficulties associated with capture at the source, where space for added equipment is limited, good storage sites are in short supply, and proximity to private property engenders resistance. Large Igneous Provinces have been tested as secure CO2 reservoirs. CO2 and water react with reservoir rock to form stable carbonates, permanently sequestering the carbon. Outfitting reservoirs in large igneous provinces far from human habitation with ambient air capture systems creates large CO2 sequestration sites. Their remoteness offers advantages in environmental security and public acceptance and, thus, can smooth the path toward CO2 stabilization. Direct capture of CO2 from ambient air appears energetically and economically viable and could be scaled up quickly. Thermodynamic energy requirements are very small and a number of approaches have shown to be energy efficient in practice. Sorbent technologies include supported organoamines, alkaline brines, and quaternary ammonium based ion-exchange resins. To demonstrate that the stated goals of low cost and low energy consumption can be reached at scale, public research and demonstration projects are essential. We suggest co-locating air capture and geosequestration at sites where renewable energy resources can power both activities. Ready renewable energy would also allow for the co-production of synthetic fuels. Possible locations with large wind and basalt resources include Iceland and Greenland, the north-western United States, the Kerguelen plateau, Siberia and Morocco. Capture and sequestration in these reservoirs could recover all of the emissions of the 20th century and still contribute to a carbon neutral economy throughout the 21st century. Mobilizing industrial infrastructure to these areas poses a challenge. However, the urgency of the climate problem requires immediate action, with economic incentives and commitments to site evaluation and engineering development.

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response.

PubMed

Lowe, Jason A; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-13

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s).

The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, Jason A.; Bernie, Daniel

2018-05-01

A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO2 and 150 GtCO2, respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.

Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

PubMed

Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

2014-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

Nitrogen Use Efficiency of California Almond Orchards Using Advanced Farming Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smart, David; Schellenberg, Daniel; Saa Silva, Sebastian; Muhammad, Saiful; Sanden, Blake; Brown, Patrick

2014-05-01

Mobilization of reactive nitrogen species (NH3, NH4+, NOx, N2O, NO2- and NO3-) is perceived as one of the foremost challenges for modern agricultural production systems. Yet information to address the question of how advanced nitrogen (N) management alters reactive N mobilization is lacking. During 2009 to 2012 we monitored spatially constrained N2O emissions and potential leachable NO3-, along with yield-N content to examine their contribution to nitrogen use efficiency (NUE, fruit-N exported/fertilizer-N applied) for a modern, high yielding almond production system. This modern production system schedules irrigation to match evapotranspiration (ETc) estimated from the Penman-Montieth calculation of a reference evapotranspiration (ETo) times a seasonal crop coefficient (Kc) which was verified using eddy covariance and surface renewal latent heat flux estimates. Split N-fertilizer applications were targeted to tree-N demand and root proliferation. These production systems demand upwards of 300 kg N ha-1. NUE was found to be nearly 80% at an N application level allowing for economic sustainability of the system (308 kg N ha-1). When mobilization of N2O and NO3- were included in the NUE assessment, these systems were still highly sustainable in terms of N applied. We also monitored production and consumption of the greenhouse gases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These systems had relatively low levels of N2O emissions with emissions of N2O as a fraction of N-fertilizer applied being consistently less than IPCC Tier 1 emissions factors, and lower than the average estimated for most continental US farming systems. The system also demonstrated a capacity for net CH4 oxidation over the course of a season that occurred mainly in the driveways between tree rows that are kept dry over the course of the season in this arid environment. Our study indicated that tight management of water resources and targeted applications of N-fertilizer resulted in net positive greenhouse gas consumption overall.

Avoiding dangerous climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Wolfgang Cramer; Nebojsa Nakicenovic

2006-02-15

In 2005 the UK Government hosted the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference to take an in-depth look at the scientific issues associated with climate change. This volume presents the most recent findings from the leading international scientists that attended the conference. The topics addressed include critical thresholds and key vulnerabilities of the climate system, impacts on human and natural systems, socioeconomic costs and benefits of emissions pathways, and technological options for meeting different stabilisation levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Contents are: Foreword from Prime Minister Tony Blair; Introduction from Rajendra Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC; followed by 41more » papers arranged in seven sections entitled: Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds; General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts; Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity; Socio-Economic Effects; Regional Perspectives; Emission Pathways; and Technological Options. Four papers have been abstracted separately for the Coal Abstracts database.« less

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.

PubMed

Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

2013-06-18

Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1° × 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.

Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions

PubMed Central

Shen, Huizhong; Huang, Ye; Wang, Rong; Zhu, Dan; Li, Wei; Shen, Guofeng; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Yanyan; Chen, Yuanchen; Lu, Yan; Chen, Han; Li, Tongchao; Sun, Kang; Li, Bengang; Liu, Wenxin; Liu, Junfeng; Tao, Shu

2013-01-01

Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios. PMID:23659377

Micrometeorological Technique for Monitoring of Geological Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage: Methodology, Workflow and Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burba, G. G.; Madsen, R.; Feese, K.

2013-12-01

The eddy covariance (EC) method is a micrometeorological technique for direct high-speed measurements of the transport of gases and energy between land or water surfaces and the atmosphere [1]. This method allows for observations of gas transport scales from 20-40 times per second to multiple years, represents gas exchange integrated over a large area, from hundreds of square meters to tens of square kilometres, and corresponds to gas exchange from the entire surface, including canopy, and soil or water layers. Gas fluxes, emission and exchange rates are characterized from single-point in situ measurements using permanent or mobile towers, or moving platforms such as automobiles, helicopters, airplanes, etc. Presently, over 600 eddy covariance stations are in operation in over 120 countries [1]. EC is now recognized as an effective method in regulatory and industrial applications, including CCUS [2-10]. Emerging projects utilize EC to continuously monitor large areas before and after the injections, to locate and quantify leakages where CO2 may escape from the subsurface, to improve storage efficiency, and for other CCUS characterizations [5-10]. Although EC is one of the most direct and defensible micrometeorological techniques measuring gas emission and transport, and complete automated stations and processing are readily available, the method is mathematically complex, and requires careful setup and execution specific to the site and project. With this in mind, step-by-step instructions were created in [1] to introduce a novice to the EC method, and to assist in further understanding of the method through more advanced references. In this presentation we provide brief highlights of the eddy covariance method, its application to geological carbon capture, utilization and storage, key requirements, instrumentation and software, and review educational resources particularly useful for carbon sequestration research. References: [1] Burba G. Eddy Covariance Method for Scientific, Industrial, Agricultural and Regulatory Applications. LI-COR Biosciences; 2013. [2] International Energy Agency. Quantification techniques for CO2 leakage. IEA-GHG; 2012. [3] US Department of Energy. Best Practices for Monitoring, Verification, and Accounting of CO2 Stored in Deep Geologic Formations. US DOE; 2012. [4] Liu G. (Ed.). Greenhouse Gases: Capturing, Utilization and Reduction. Intech; 2012. [5] Finley R. et al. An Assessment of Geological Carbon Sequestration Options in the Illinois Basin - Phase III. DOE-MGSC; DE-FC26-05NT42588; 2012. [6] LI-COR Biosciences. Surface Monitoring for Geologic Carbon Sequestration. LI-COR, 980-11916, 2011. [7] Lewicki J., Hilley G. Eddy covariance mapping and quantification of surface CO2 leakage fluxes. GRL, 2009; 36: L21802. [8] Finley R. An Assessment of Geological Carbon Sequestration in the Illinois Basin. Overview of the Decatur-Illinois Basin Site. DOE-MGSC; 2009. [9] Eggleston H., et al. (Eds). IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC NGGI P, WMO/UNEP; 2006-2011. [10] Burba G., Madsen R., Feese K. Eddy Covariance Method for CO2 Emission Measurements in CCUS Applications: Principles, Instrumentation and Software. Energy Procedia; Submitted: 1-8.

Resource limits and conversion efficiency with implications for climate change and California's energy supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croft, Gregory Donald

There are two commonly-used approaches to modeling the future supply of mineral resources. One is to estimate reserves and compare the result to extraction rates, and the other is to project from historical time series of extraction rates. Perceptions of abundant oil supplies in the Middle East and abundant coal supplies in the United States are based on the former approach. In both of these cases, an approach based on historical production series results in a much smaller resource estimate than aggregate reserve numbers. This difference is not systematic; natural gas production in the United States shows a strong increasing trend even though modest reserve estimates have resulted in three decades of worry about the gas supply. The implication of a future decline in Middle East oil production is that the market for transportation fuels is facing major changes, and that alternative fuels should be analyzed in this light. Because the U.S. holds very large coal reserves, synthesizing liquid hydrocarbons from coal has been suggested as an alternative fuel supply. To assess the potential of this process, one has to look at both the resource base and the net efficiency. The three states with the largest coal production declines in the 1996 to 2006 period are among the top 5 coal reserve holders, suggesting that gross coal reserves are a poor indicator of future production. Of the three categories of coal reserves reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, reserves at existing mines is the narrowest category and is approximately the equivalent of proved developed oil reserves. By this measure, Wyoming has the largest coal reserves in the U.S., and it accounted for all of U.S. coal production growth over the 1996 to 2006 time period. In Chapter 2, multi-cycle Hubbert curve analysis of historical data of coal production from 1850 to 2007 demonstrates that U.S. anthracite and bituminous coal are past their production peak. This result contradicts estimates based on aggregated reserve numbers. Electric power generation consumes 92 percent of U.S. coal production. Natural gas competes with coal as a baseload power generation fuel with similar or slightly better generation efficiency. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, described in Chapter 2, creates transportation fuel from coal with an efficiency of less than 45 percent. Claims of higher efficiencies are based on waste heat recovery, since this is a highly exothermic process. The yield of liquid fuel as a proportion of the energy content of the coal input is always less than 45 percent. Compressed natural gas can be used for vehicle fuel with efficiency greater than 98 percent. If we view Fischer-Tropsch synthesis as a form of arbitrage between markets for electricity and transportation fuel, coal cannot simultaneously compete with natural gas for both transportation fuel and electric power. This is because Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is a way to turn power generation fuel into transportation fuel with low efficiency, while natural gas can be converted to transportation fuel with much greater efficiency. For this reason, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis will be an uneconomic source of transportation fuel as long as natural gas is economic for power generation. This conclusion holds even without the very high capital cost of coal-to-liquids plants. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has generated forty carbon production and emissions scenarios, see the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (2000). Chapter 4 develops a base-case scenario for global coal production based on the physical multi-cycle Hubbert analysis of historical production data. Areas with large resources but little production history, such as Alaska or Eastern Siberia, can be treated as sensitivities on top of this base case. The value of our approach is that it provides a reality check on the magnitude of carbon emissions in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The resulting base case is significantly below 36 of the 40 carbon emission scenarios from the IPCC, and the global peak of coal production from existing coalfields is predicted to occur about the year 2011. The peak coal production rate calculated here is 160 EJ/y, and the associated peak carbon emissions from coal burning are 4.5 Gt C per year. After 2011, the production rates of coal and CO2 decline, reaching 1990 levels by the year 2037, and reaching 50% of the peak value in the year 2047. It is unlikely that future mines will reverse the trend predicted in the base case scenario here, and current efforts to sequester carbon or to convert coal into liquid fuels should be reexamined in light of resource limits. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Monitoring and assessment of ocean acidification in the Arctic Ocean-A scoping paper

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, Lisa L.; Yates, Kimberly K.; Feely, Richard; Fabry, Victoria

2010-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is absorbed at the ocean surface by reacting with seawater to form a weak, naturally occurring acid called carbonic acid. As atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, the concentration of carbonic acid in seawater also increases, causing a decrease in ocean pH and carbonate mineral saturation states, a process known as ocean acidification. The oceans have absorbed approximately 525 billion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or about one-quarter to one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emissions released since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Global surveys of ocean chemistry have revealed that seawater pH has decreased by about 0.1 units (from a pH of 8.2 to 8.1) since the 1700s due to absorption of carbon dioxide (Raven and others, 2005). Modeling studies, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CO2 emission scenarios, predict that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels could reach more than 500 parts per million (ppm) by the middle of this century and 800 ppm by the year 2100, causing an additional decrease in surface water pH of 0.3 pH units. Ocean acidification is a global threat and is already having profound and deleterious effects on the geology, biology, chemistry, and socioeconomic resources of coastal and marine habitats. The polar and sub-polar seas have been identified as the bellwethers for global ocean acidification.

Biomethane potential of the POME generated in the palm oil industry in Ghana from 2002 to 2009.

PubMed

Arthur, Richard; Glover, Kwasi

2012-05-01

The palm oil industry experienced significant improvement in its production level from 2002 to 2009 from the established companies, medium scale mills (MSM), small scale and other private holdings (SS and OPH) groups. However, the same cannot be said for treatment of the palm oil mill effluent (POME) produced. The quantity of crude palm oil (CPO) produced in Ghana from 2002 to 2009 and IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, specifically on industrial wastewater were used in this study. During this period about 10 million cubic metres of POME was produced translating into biomethane potential of 38.5 million m(3) with equivalent of 388.29 GW h of energy. A linear growth model developed to predict the equivalent carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions indicates that if the biomethane is not harnessed then by 2015 the untreated POME could produce 0.58 million tCO(2)-eq and is expected to increase to 0.70 million tCO(2)-eq by 2020. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries

PubMed Central

Mach, Katharine J.; Freeman, Patrick T.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Field, Christopher B.

2016-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report’s summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain. PMID:27532046

A Sub-category Disaggregated Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory for the Bogota Region, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Guio, A. D.; Rojas, A. M.; Ossma, L. J.; Jimenez-Pizarro, R.

2012-12-01

Several international organizations, such as UNDP and UNEP, have recently recognized the importance of empowering sub-national decision levels on climatic governance according to the subsidiarity principle. Regional and municipal authorities are directly responsible for land use management and for regulating economic sectors that emit greenhouse gases (GHG) and are vulnerable to climate change. Sub-national authorities are also closer to the population, which make them better suited for educating the public and for achieving commitment among stakeholders. This investigation was developed within the frame of the Regional Integrated Program on Climate Change for the Cundinamarca-Bogota Region (PRICC), an initiative aimed at incorporating the climate dimension into the regional and local decision making. The region composed by Bogota and its nearest, semi-rural area of influence (Province of Cundinamarca) is the most important population and economic center of Colombia. Our investigation serves two purposes: a) to establish methodologies for estimating regional GHG emissions appropriate to the Colombian context, and b) to disaggregate GHG emissions by economic sector as a mitigation decision-making tool. GHG emissions were calculated using IPCC 1996 - Tier 1 methodologies, as there are no regional- or country-specific emission factors available for Colombia. Top-Down (TD) methodologies, based on national and regional energy use intensity, per capita consumption and fertilizer use, were developed and applied to estimate activities for following categories: fuel use in industrial, commercial and residential sectors (excepting NG and LPG), use of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and substitutes, and fertilizer use (for total emissions of agricultural soils). The emissions from the remaining 22 categories were calculated using Bottom-Up (BU) methodologies given the availability of regional information. The total GHG emissions in the Cundinamarca-Bogota Region on 2008 are estimated at 22.96±1.25 (1-sigma) Tg of CO2 equivalent (10.46±0.93 Tg CO2-e from Cundinamarca and 12.51±0.83 Tg CO2-eq from Bogota). 63% of Cundinamarca's GHG emissions are due to road transportation, agricultural soil management, enteric fermentation and fuel use in the cement industry. The road transportation and waste disposal sectors share 62% of emissions in Bogota. These activity sectors are considered to be the main GHG mitigation assessment targets. The calculated per capita emissions, 1.7 ton CO2-eq/hab-year for Bogota and 4.4 ton CO2-eq/hab-year for Cundinamarca (excluding emissions due to land-use change), do not reflect the fact that Cundinamarca provides goods and services to the city of Bogota. A deeper analysis is thus required to quantitatively account for Bogota's urban metabolism, including GHG emissions associated with consumption patterns. It is expected that the developed and applied methodologies, and the systematic compilation of the gathered information, will facilitate the development of GHG inventories for other regions of Colombia.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

CO2-MEGAPARIS: Quantification of CO2 emissions from Paris megacity and their spread out to the neightbouring Centre region. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xueref-Remy, I.

2010-12-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing of more than 30% since the pre-industrial era due to human activities, and is very likely involved in the recent global temperature increase [IPCC, 2007]. Although we have good estimates of the CO2 fluxes on a global basis, and have a relatively well-established system to detect the large-scale trends, regional information (10-500km) is needed if society is ever to manage or verify carbon emissions. We must improve our understanding of regional variations in the sources and sinks of CO2 because they help identify possible sequestration or emission management options. New programs are needed to improve our understanding of meso-scale carbon fluxes, and to discriminate between the anthropogenic and biospheric sources which are very strongly overlapped in European countries. In this context we need to monitor the emissions originating from the megalopolis such as Paris and its agglomeration, and the way they are spreading in the background atmosphere. Nowadays, inventories (CITEPA, AIRPARIF) based on statistical information provide CO2 emissions from Ile de France and all others regions of France, but no independent verification based on CO2 measurements has been done yet. Atmospheric measurements coupled to a meso-scale model can be used to provide such verification, especially to detect the interannual and decadal trends which could result from regional management strategy. The CO2-MEGAPARIS project (2009-2012) objective is to develop four independent methods to verify the emission inventories, and to monitor the daily to monthly CO2 emissions from Ile de France as well as their spreading to neighbouring regions with a scale up to 2x2 km2. The first method consists in developing a synergy between a mesoscale model (CHIMERE/MM5), inventories and observations using a top-down approach based on an inversion technique to retrieve surface fluxes (3 new observing stations are developed among which the top of the Eiffel tower). The second method is to assess the anthropogenic emissions from Ile de France using the Radon method based on correlations between the concentrations of Radon 222 (continental tracer) and atmospheric CO2. The third method is to study the propagation of the anthropogenic plume towards the region Centre by applying an atmospheric boundary layer budget at LSCE’s observation site in Orléans forest. The fourth method is to conduct intensive measurements of in-situ CO2 and tracers (CO, potassium, dC13, dC14, ....) in Paris agglomeration to better assess the role and the variability of CO2 sources in Ile-de-France. Especially, a joined campaign with the MEGAPOLI EU-project has been conducted in winter 2010. First results of the CO2-MEGAPARIS project will be presented.

Greenhouse gas accounting and waste management.

PubMed

Gentil, Emmanuel; Christensen, Thomas H; Aoustin, Emmanuelle

2009-11-01

Accounting of emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) is a major focus within waste management. This paper analyses and compares the four main types of GHG accounting in waste management including their special features and approaches: the national accounting, with reference to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the corporate level, as part of the annual reporting on environmental issues and social responsibility, life-cycle assessment (LCA), as an environmental basis for assessing waste management systems and technologies, and finally, the carbon trading methodology, and more specifically, the clean development mechanism (CDM) methodology, introduced to support cost-effective reduction in GHG emissions. These types of GHG accounting, in principle, have a common starting point in technical data on GHG emissions from specific waste technologies and plants, but the limited availability of data and, moreover, the different scopes of the accounting lead to many ways of quantifying emissions and producing the accounts. The importance of transparency in GHG accounting is emphasised regarding waste type, waste composition, time period considered, GHGs included, global warming potential (GWP) assigned to the GHGs, counting of biogenic carbon dioxide, choice of system boundaries, interactions with the energy system, and generic emissions factors. In order to enhance transparency and consistency, a format called the upstream-operating-downstream framework (UOD) is proposed for reporting basic technology-related data regarding GHG issues including a clear distinction between direct emissions from waste management technologies, indirect upstream (use of energy and materials) and indirect downstream (production of energy, delivery of secondary materials) activities.

Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

2012-04-01

In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Carbon Dioxide Removal and Conversion to Ocean Alkalinity: Why and How

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rau, G. H.

2014-12-01

Drastic reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions is the most obvious way to stabilize atmospheric CO2. However, there is growing risk that effective emissions reduction policies and technologies will not engage soon enough to avoid significant CO2-induced climate and ocean acidification impacts. This realization has lead to increased interest (e.g., IPCC AR5, 2014; NRC/NAS, 2014) in the possibility of pro-actively increasing CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere above the 55% of our emissions that are already removed from air by natural land and ocean processes. While a variety of biotic, abiotic, and hybrid CDR methods have been proposed, those involving geochemistry have much to recommend them. These methods employ the same geochemical reactions that naturally and effectively remove excess planetary CO2 and neutralize ocean acidity on geologic time scales. These reactions proceed when the hydrosphere, acidified by excess air CO2, contacts and reacts with carbonate and silicate minerals (>90% of the Earth's crust), producing dissolved bicarbonates and carbonates, i.e., ocean alkalinity. This alkalinity is eventually removed and the excess carbon stored via carbonate precipitation. So while the importance and global effectiveness of such reactions are not in question, it remains to be seen if this very slow, natural CDR could be safely and cost-effectively accelerated to help manage air CO2 levels on human rather than geologic time scales. Various terrestrial and marine, geochemistry-based CDR methods will be reviewed including: 1) the addition of minerals to soils and the ocean, 2) removal of CO2 from waste streams, esp. from biomass energy, via wet mineral contacting, and 3) the production and use of mineral derivatives, e.g. oxides or hydroxides, as CDR agents. The additional potential environmental benefits (e.g., reversal of ocean carbonate saturation loss) and impacts (e.g., increased mineral extraction), as well as potential economics will also be discussed.

Carbon footprint related to cattle production in Brazil, management practices and new alternatives.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Figueiredo, Eduardo; de oliveira, Ricardo; Berchielli, Telma; Reis, Ricardo; La Scala, Newton

2013-04-01

Brazil has the World largest commercial beef cattle herd, over 209.5 million heads in 2010 and is the leading exports of cattle meat. It has been argued that this activity has an important impact on GHG emissions, but a variety of options exists for greenhouse gases (GHG) mitigation in agriculture. Among those, the most prominent options are associated to the improvement of crops and grazing land management. Our study is focused on the GHG balance related to the improvement of brachiaria spp. pasture, leading to increases in the animal stocking rate and meat production per area and time. This study is based on the IPCC (2006) methodology and others Brazil specific data and results presented by scientific literature to estimate GHG balance (emissions sources and sinks) for three scenarios proposed for brachiaria pasture: 1) degraded pasture, 2) managed pasture and 3) crop-livestock-forest integration system (CLFIS). The approach takes into account the amounts of supplies per hectare used for each of the simulated scenario projected over a 20 years period. The GHG estimates are presented in kg CO2eq per kg of liveweight, considering the following emission sources and sinks within farm-gate: i) CH4 from enteric fermentation, ii) CH4 from manure deposited on pasture, iii) N2O emissions from urine and dung deposited by cattle on pasture, iv) N2O emissions from N synthetic fertilizer, v) N2O emissions from crop residues as of N-fixing crops and pasture renewal returned to soils, vi) CO2 from potassium use, vii) CO2 from phosphorus use, viii) CO2 from insecticides use, ix) CO2 from herbicides use, x) CO2 emissions due to lime application, xi) emissions due to diesel combustion, xii) eucalyptus biomass sequestration and xiii) soil carbon sequestration. We considered initial body weight of 200 kg for each heifer and a final slaughter weight of 450 kg head-1 for all scenarios; for degraded pasture a stocking rate of 0,5 head ha-1 year-1 and liveweight gain of 83 kg head-1year-1 or a gain of 41.5 kg of liveweight ha-1 year-1 and three years to reach slaughter weight. In contrast, for managed pasture and for CLFIS scenarios, two years to reach slaughter time and liveweight gain of 125 kg head-1 year-1 with 4 heads ha-1 year-1, resulting in a gain of 500 kg of liveweight ha-1 year-1. Our results indicate a GHG emission of 17.7 kg CO2eq kg-1 of liveweight to the scenario degraded pasture (1), 11.4 kg CO2eq kg-1 to the scenario managed pasture (2) and a positive balance of 4.9 kg CO2eq kg-1 in the scenario CLFIS (3), which is mainly related to the eucalyptus biomass and soil C sequestrations. Our simulation indicates a great potential not only to reduce GHG emissions associated to cattle production on managed pasture in Brazil, but also a C sequestration in CLFIS, which would be an additional strategy to mitigate the climate change.

Impact of 1.5°C global warming on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritz, Catherine; Pattyn, Frank

2017-04-01

For strengthening the global response to climate change, it is crucial to assess to what extent limiting global warming to low values may reduce the impacts on society. To tackle this issue, the IPCC has decided to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Ice sheets are well known contributors to sea level rise and many studies have aimed to provide projections of their future contribution in response to climate change, although the focus was often on worst-case scenarios. Here we propose to review the present knowledge of how the ice sheets could be affected in the case of a limited warming of 1.5°C to 2.0°C. We will review the various processes and feedbacks known to induce ice sheets vulnerability. They are different for Greenland, where we know that the surface mass balance plays a crucial role, and Antarctica where the major risk is marine ice sheet instability. One point of interest is to define, in terms of local forcing, the tipping points associated with these processes. We note that limiting global warming to 1.5°C may mean substantially more warming in the polar regions. This polar amplification can be assessed from experiments following the RCP2.6 scenario that have been carried out in recent (post IPCC AR5) studies. This scenario can be considered as an upper limit for 1.5°C. The final question concerns the long term (millennial) impact. There is a general consensus that there are tipping points both for Greenland and Antarctica, which potentially lead to irreversible mass loss. We will review the current knowledge of how long it takes to reach these tipping points and whether subsequent ice-sheet demise is, indeed, unstoppable.