Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

Temporal Considerations of Carbon Sequestration in LCA

Treesearch

James Salazar; Richard Bergman

2013-01-01

Accounting for carbon sequestration in LCA illustrates the limitations of a single global warming characterization factor. Typical cradle-to-grave LCA models all emissions from end-of-life processes and then characterizes these flows by IPCC GWP (100-yr) factors. A novel method estimates climate change impact by characterizing annual emissions with the IPCC GHG forcing...

IPCC Report Calls Climate Changes Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-10-01

Warming of the Earth's climate "is unequivocal and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia," according to a new assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 27 September summary for policy makers of IPCC's report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" also states that "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

Comparison of Global Cloud Fraction and TOA Radiation Budgets between the NASA GISS AR5 GCM Simulations and CERES-MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R. E.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Del Genio, A. D.; Minnis, P.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.

2011-12-01

To better advise policymakers, it is necessary for climate models to provide credible predictions of future climates. Meeting this goal requires climate models to successfully simulate the present and past climates. The past, current and future Earth climate has been simulated by the NASA GISS ModelE climate model and has been summarized by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4, 2007). New simulations from the updated AR5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM have been released to the public community and will be included in the IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, however, they have yet to be extensively validated against observations. To evaluate the GISS AR5 simulated global clouds and TOA radiation budgets, we have collected and processed the NASA CERES and MODIS observations during the period 2000-2005. In detail, the 1ox1o resolution monthly averaged SYN1 product has been used with combined observations from both Terra and Aqua satellites, and degraded to a 2ox2.5o grid box to match the GCM spatial resolution. These observations are temporally interpolated and fit to data from geostationary satellites to provide time continuity. The GISS AR5 products were downloaded from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for the IPCC-AR5. Preliminary comparisons between GISS AR5 simulations and CERES-MODIS observations have shown that although their annual and seasonal mean CFs agree within a few percent, there are significant differences in several climatic regions. For example, the modeled CFs have positive biases in the Arctic, Antarctic, Tropics, and Sahara Desert, but negative biases over the southern middle latitudes (30-65 oS). The OLR, albedo and NET radiation comparisons are similar to the CF comparison.

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W. D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Sun, Y.; Portmann, R. W.; Fu, Q.; Casanova, S. E. B.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fillmore, D. W.; Forster, P. M. D.;

Reconstruction of the boundary between climate science and politics: the IPCC in the Japanese mass media, 1988-2007.

PubMed

Asayama, Shinichiro; Ishii, Atsushi

2014-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a significant role in bridging the boundary between climate science and politics. Media coverage is crucial for understanding how climate science is communicated and embedded in society. This study analyzes the discursive construction of the IPCC in three Japanese newspapers from 1988 to 2007 in terms of the science-politics boundary. The results show media discourses engaged in boundary-work which rhetorically separated science and politics, and constructed the iconic image of the IPCC as a pure scientific authority. In the linkages between the global and national arenas of climate change, the media "domesticate" the issue, translating the global nature of climate change into a discourse that suits the national context. We argue that the Japanese media's boundary-work is part of the media domestication that reconstructed the boundary between climate science and politics reflecting the Japanese context.

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

[The climate debate: the facts].

PubMed

van den Broeke, Michiel R

2009-01-01

The first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appeared almost 20 years ago. Environmental contamination has a negative effect on the environment in which we live. However, the public at large is confused about the ins and outs of climate change. Managers, politicians, various kinds of advisors, scientists, so-called experts, sceptics and journalists have all taken it upon themselves to lead the debate. Whose task is it to ensure a sound discussion? Surely it is the IPCC's task. However, most politicians and many journalists, and even many scientists, do not take the trouble to read the entire IPCC report or parts of it. As a consequence, much nonsense is published and broadcast. An effective procedure to deal with the climate problem starts with a fair discussion of the scientific evidence. My advice is: just read the free IPCC report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ and click on 'WG I The Physical Science Basis'.

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of the dispersion, though for a given SST pattern, ARPEGE does not necessarily reproduce the anomaly produced originally by the IPCC model which produced the SST anomaly. Many factors can contribute to this discrepancy, but the most prominent seems to be the absence of coupling between the forced atmospheric ARPEGE simulation and the underlying ocean. When the atmospheric model is forced by prescribed SST anomalies some retroactions between cyclogenesis and ocean are missing. There are however areas over the globe were models agree about the CYGP or GPI anomalies induced by global warming, such as the Indian Ocean that shows a better coherency in the coupled and forced responses. This could be an indication that interaction between ocean and atmosphere is not as strong there as in the other basins. Details of the results for all the other ocean basins will be presented. References: Chauvin F. and J.-F. Royer and M. Déqué , 2006: Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution. Climate Dynamics 27(4), 377-399. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change], Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, in: S. Solomon et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press. Royer JF, F Chauvin, 2009: Response of tropical cyclogenesis to global warming in an IPCC AR-4 scenario assessed by a modified yearly genesis parameter. "Hurricanes and Climate Change", J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (Eds.), Springer, ISBN: 978-0-387-09409-0, pp 213-234.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

77 FR 59238 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group I Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-26

... Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis Summary: The United States Global... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. The United Nations..., and socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential...

Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

2011-12-01

Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction technique is applied when using the RCM climatology to the streamflow model. Of specific interest is how major droughts associated with La Niña-like conditions may worsen in the future, as these are the times when the Colorado River system is most critically stressed and would define the "worst case" scenario for water resource planning.

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Towards the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Zhai, P.; Pirani, A.

2016-12-01

The IPCC, set up in 1988 by WMO and UNEP, is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change. The reports of the IPCC include Assessments, Synthesis and Special Reports (and their Summaries for Policymakers), as well as Methodological Reports, providing policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. These assessments are policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive, and based on the assessment of the published literature. The assessments of the IPCC follow precise procedures to ensure that they provide a rigorous and balanced scientific information. Particularly critical is the volunteer involvment of tens of scientists involved in the scoping of each report, as well as the work of hundreds of Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead Authors of reports, with the complementary expertise of hundreds of sollicited Contributing Authors. The review process plays a key role in the open and transparent process underlying the IPCC reports. It is organized in multiple rounds and mobilizes thousands of other experts, a process monitored by Review Editors. The author teams develop rigorous methodologies to report the degree of confidence associated with each finding and report information with uncertainty. As a result, successive IPCC reports provide regular steps to determine matured climate science, through robust findings, but also emerging research pathways, and facilitate science maturation through analyses of multiple perspectives provided by the scientific literature in a comprehensive approach. While the IPCC does not conduct its own scientific research, the timeline of the IPCC reports acts as a stimulation for the research community, especially for internationally coordinated research programmes associated with global climate projections. These aspects will be developed in this presentation, with a focus on Working Group I (the physical science basis), and the 6th Assessment Report (AR6). For more information, see : www.ipcc.ch For new special reports planned in 2018-2019 : http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/activities.shtml For the strategic planning schedule for the AR6 : http://www.ipcc.ch/activities/pdf/ar6_WSPSchedule_07072016.pdf

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

2015-10-01

Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

Remote Sensing for Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Diane

2011-01-01

Remote sensing is being used more and more for decision-making and policy development. Specific examples are: (1) Providing constraints on climate models used in IPCC assessments (2) Framing discussions about greenhouse gas monitoring (3) Providing support for hazard assessment and recovery.

78 FR 19565 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group II Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-01

... Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... on Climate Change (IPCC), Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability. The United Nations Environment... socio-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts...

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

2010-12-01

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In : Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. This work is performed in the framework of the SCAMPEI ANR (French research project).

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Unleashing Expert Judgment in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, P. T.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.

2016-12-01

IPCC assessments are critical vehicles for evaluating and synthesizing existing knowledge about climate change, its impacts, and potential options for adaptation and mitigation. In these assessments, rigorous expert judgment is essential for characterizing current scientific understanding including persistent and complex uncertainties related to climate change. Over its history the IPCC has iteratively developed frameworks for evaluating and communicating what is known and what is not known about climate change science. In this presentation, we explore advances and challenges in approaches to evaluating and communicating expert judgment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). We present an analysis of the frequency of the use of calibrated degree-of-certainty terms in the policymaker summaries from the IPCC's AR5 and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We find that revised guidance for IPCC author teams in the AR5 improved the development of balanced judgments on scientific evidence across disciplines. Overall, degree-of-certainty terms are more abundant in the AR5 policymaker summaries compared to those of the AR4, demonstrating an increased commitment to extensively and transparently characterizing expert judgments underpinning report conclusions. This analysis also shows that while working groups still favor different degree-of-certainty scales in the AR5, authors employed a wider array of degree-of-certainty scales to communicate expert judgment supporting report findings compared to the policymaker summaries of the AR4. Finally, our analysis reveals greater inclusion of lower-certainty findings in the AR5 as compared to the AR4, critical for communicating a fuller range of possible climate change impacts and response options. Building on our findings we propose a simpler, more transparent, and more rigorous framework for developing and communicating expert judgments in future climate and environmental assessments.

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J.; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary

2017-01-01

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.

Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, K.

2017-12-01

Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. First Assessment Report Overview.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Environmental Affairs, 1991

1991-01-01

Presented are policymakers' summaries of the three working groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)--science, impacts, and response strategies, the report of the IPCC Special Committee on the Participation of Developing Countries, and a discussion of international cooperation and future work. (CW)

IPCC Methodologies for the Waste Sector: Past, Present, and Future

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The reporting of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began more than a decade ago by the signatory countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). National GHG inventories rely on the evolving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) national GHG inventor...

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Finding the CO[subscript 2] Culprit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clary, Renee; Wandersee, James

2015-01-01

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fifth report, attributing 95% of "all" climate warming--from the 1950s through today--to humans. Not only did the report--like previous IPCC reports dating back to 1990--accredit global warming to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but over time the vast…

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.;

Evaluating the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate likelihood information in IPCC reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Adam

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prescribes that the communication of risk and uncertainty information pertaining to scientific reports, model predictions etc. be communicated with a set of 7 likelihood expressions. These range from "Extremely likely" (intended to communicate a likelihood of greater than 99%) through "As likely as not" (33-66%) to "Extremely unlikely" (less than 1%). Psychological research has investigated the degree to which these expressions are interpreted as intended by the IPCC, both within and across cultures. I will present a selection of this research and demonstrate some problems associated with communicating likelihoods in this way, as well as suggesting some potential improvements.

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex

2015-01-01

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

The highs and lows of cloud radiative feedback: Comparing observational data and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A.; Randall, D. A.

2014-12-01

Clouds play a complex role in the climate system, and remain one of the more difficult aspects of the future climate to predict. Over subtropical eastern ocean basins, particularly next to California, Peru, and Southwest Africa, low marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) help to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface by reflecting incident sunlight. The climate feedback associated with these clouds is thought to be positive. This project looks at CMIP5 models and compares them to observational data from CERES and ERA-Interim to try and find observational evidence and model agreement for low, marine stratocumulus cloud feedback. Although current evidence suggests that the low cloud feedback is positive (IPCC, 2014), an analysis of the simulated relationship between July lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and shortwave cloud forcing in MSC regions suggests that this feedback is not due to changes in LTS. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

PubMed

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-02-27

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women’s views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. PMID:29440422

Herding cats? A multi-model perspective on tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, P. J.

2015-12-01

Various global multi-model studies have investigated tropospheric ozone changes over multi-decadal timescales. Several robust features emerge, which - for instance - allows the IPCC to associate high confidence in the radiative forcing associated with ozone increases between 1750 and the present day. However, such quantities hide the spread in results between different models, particularly when looking at seasonal and regional scales, and including for comparisons with observations. What can we learn about our scientific understanding from the model spread? What can we learn about models from the model spread? And can we make recommendations for deficient or missing processes if we wish to use our models for environmental prediction? Of course, these questions also have to be asked in the context of what we want the model(s) to do (air quality, climate, stratospheric ozone depletion etc.). This poster will report ongoing work in my group which draws on results from multi-model experiments conducted in support of the most recent IPCC report (CMIP5 and ACCMIP), with an eye to the expected outcomes from the ongoing Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) model simulations.

Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K. C. Benita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or "anthropogenic" activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes...

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, B.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become a central element of national and international assessments of climate change. The CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) model experiments will be the foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), scheduled for publication around 2021. To increase the fidelity of the IPCC AR6, the CMIP6 model experiments need rigorous evaluation. The "Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects" (Obs4MIPs) collects, organizes and publishes various well-established satellite data sets for CMIP model evaluation. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA's temperature and humidity sounding system on the Aqua satellite, has provided over a decade-long high-quality tropospheric temperature and moisture sounding data. Under the current support of the NASA Data for Operation and Assessment (NDOA) program, we are generating and publishing the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set including the monthly mean tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity profiles from September 2002 to September 2016. This will provide the latest AIRS data in Obs4MIPs and assist the climate modeling community to better use the AIRS data for CMIP (including CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) model evaluation. In this presentation, we will discuss the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set and their possible use for CMIP6 climate model evaluation.

76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... time that they accept the overall report. Principles and procedures for the IPCC and its preparation of..._documents/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf (pdf) http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization_procedures.shtml In.... The following section of the report discusses risk management at the local, national and international...

Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.

2009-12-01

Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach is being attempted in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) whereby multiple global models are used to drive multiple regional models for the current period and the mid-21st century over the continent. Progress in this endeavor will be reported.

A public health approach to the impact of climate change on health in southern Africa - identifying priority modifiable risks.

PubMed

Myers, J; Young, T; Galloway, M; Manyike, P; Tucker, T

2011-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse impacts on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as given. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural and their relation to the burden of disease pattern typical of sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The model provides a tool for identifying modifiable risk factors with a view to future research, specifically into the performance of interventions to reduce the impact of climate change.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

2012-04-01

In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.

2011-12-05

In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadalmore » climate prediction.« less

75 FR 77475 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Subspecies of the Ringed Seal

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-10

... ice area are linked in the IPCC climate models to GHG emissions by the physics of radiation processes... scenario), a model that is known for incorporating advanced sea ice physics, and for which snow data were...

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify treating uncertainty along those two dimensions, and indicate how this can be avoided.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

Effects of crop management, soil type, and climate on N2O emissions from Austrian Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Sigmund, Elisabeth; Kasper, Martina; Kitzler, Barbara; Haas, Edwin; Wandl, Michael; Strauss, Peter; Poetzelsberger, Elisabeth; Dersch, Georg; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Amon, Barbara

2015-04-01

Within the project FarmClim ("Farming for a better climate") we assessed recent N2O emissions from two selected regions in Austria. Our aim was to deepen the understanding of Austrian N2O fluxes regarding region specific properties. Currently, N2O emissions are estimated with the IPCC default emission factor which only considers the amount of N-input as an influencing factor for N2O emissions. We evaluated the IPCC default emission factor for its validity under spatially distinct environmental conditions. For this two regions for modeling with LandscapeDNDC have been identified in this project. The benefit of using LandscapeDNDC is the detailed illustration of microbial processes in the soil. Required input data to run the model included daily climate data, vegetation properties, soil characteristics and land management. The analysis of present agricultural practices was basis for assessing the hot spots and hot moments of nitrogen emissions on a regional scale. During our work with LandscapeDNDC we were able to adapt specific model algorithms to Austrian agricultural conditions. The model revealed a strong dependency of N2O emissions on soil type. We could estimate how strongly soil texture affects N2O emissions. Based on detailed soil maps with high spatial resolution we calculated region specific contribution to N2O emissions. Accordingly we differentiated regions with deviating gas fluxes compared to the predictions by the IPCC inventory methodology. Taking region specific management practices into account (tillage, irrigation, residuals) calculation of crop rotation (fallow, catch crop, winter wheat, barley, winter barley, sugar beet, corn, potato, onion and rapeseed) resulted in N2O emissions differing by a factor of 30 depending on preceding crop and climate. A maximum of 2% of N fertilizer input was emitted as N2O. Residual N in the soil was a major factor stimulating N2O emissions. Interannual variability was affected by varying N-deposition even in case of constant management practices. High temporal resolution of model outputs enabled us to identify hot moments of N-turnover and total N2O emissions according to extreme weather events. We analysed how strongly these event based emissions, which are not accounted for by classical inventories, affect emission factors. The evaluation of the IPCC default emission factor for its validity under spatially distinct environmental conditions revealed which environmental conditions are responsible for major deviations of actual emissions from the theoretical values. Scrutinizing these conditions can help to improve climate reporting and greenhouse gas mitigation measures.

Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Stockwell, PhD

2010-09-23

Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature andmore » precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).« less

A review of uncertainty visualization within the IPCC reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Reusser, Dominik; Wrobel, Markus

2015-04-01

Results derived from climate model simulations confront non-expert users with a variety of uncertainties. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be communicated such that it can be easily understood, however, the complexity of the science behind is still incorporated. With respect to the assessment reports of the IPCC, the situation is even more complicated, because heterogeneous sources and multiple types of uncertainties need to be compiled together. Within this work, we systematically (1) analyzed the visual representation of uncertainties in the IPCC AR4 and AR5 reports, and (2) executed a questionnaire to evaluate how different user groups such as decision-makers and teachers understand these uncertainty visualizations. Within the first step, we classified visual uncertainty metaphors for spatial, temporal and abstract representations. As a result, we clearly identified a high complexity of the IPCC visualizations compared to standard presentation graphics, sometimes even integrating two or more uncertainty classes / measures together with the "certain" (mean) information. Further we identified complex written uncertainty explanations within image captions even within the "summary reports for policy makers". In the second step, based on these observations, we designed a questionnaire to investigate how non-climate experts understand these visual representations of uncertainties, how visual uncertainty coding might hinder the perception of the "non-uncertain" data, and if alternatives for certain IPCC visualizations exist. Within the talk/poster, we will present first results from this questionnaire. Summarizing, we identified a clear trend towards complex images within the latest IPCC reports, with a tendency to incorporate as much as possible information into the visual representations, resulting in proprietary, non-standard graphic representations that are not necessarily easy to comprehend on one glimpse. We conclude that further translation is required to (visually) present the IPCC results to non-experts, providing tailored static and interactive visualization solutions for different user groups.

Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

PubMed Central

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

PubMed

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Blanco, Gabriela S; Stock, Charles A; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2012-01-01

Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duane, Greg; Tsonis, Anastasios; Kocarev, Ljupco

This collaborative reserach has several components but the main idea is that when imperfect copies of a given nonlinear dynamical system are coupled, they may synchronize for some set of coupling parameters. This idea is to be tested for several IPCC-like models each one with its own formulation and representing an “imperfect” copy of the true climate system. By computing the coupling parameters, which will lead the models to a synchronized state, a consensus on climate change simulations may be achieved.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Models of Solar Irradiance Variability and the Instrumental Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, S. L.; Ghil, M.; Ide, K.

1998-01-01

The effects of decade-to-century (Dec-Cen) variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) on global mean surface temperature Ts during the pre-Pinatubo instrumental era (1854-1991) are studied by using two different proxies for TSI and a simplified version of the IPCC climate model.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE PAGES

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; ...

2014-12-08

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2016-11-01

The impact of climate change on malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Recent conclusions have been drawn using relatively simple biological models and statistical approaches, with inconsistent predictions. Consequently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) echoes this uncertainty, with no clear guidance for the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission, yet recognizing a strong association between local climate and malaria. Here, we present results from a decade-long study involving field observations and a sophisticated model simulating village-scale transmission. We drive the malaria model using select climate models that correctly reproduce historical West African climate, and project reduced malaria burden in a western sub-region and insignificant impact in an eastern sub-region. Projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in this region are not of serious concern.

Translating landfill methane generation parameters among first-order decay models.

PubMed

Krause, Max J; Chickering, Giles W; Townsend, Timothy G

2016-11-01

Landfill gas (LFG) generation is predicted by a first-order decay (FOD) equation that incorporates two parameters: a methane generation potential (L 0 ) and a methane generation rate (k). Because non-hazardous waste landfills may accept many types of waste streams, multiphase models have been developed in an attempt to more accurately predict methane generation from heterogeneous waste streams. The ability of a single-phase FOD model to predict methane generation using weighted-average methane generation parameters and tonnages translated from multiphase models was assessed in two exercises. In the first exercise, waste composition from four Danish landfills represented by low-biodegradable waste streams was modeled in the Afvalzorg Multiphase Model and methane generation was compared to the single-phase Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model and LandGEM. In the second exercise, waste composition represented by IPCC waste components was modeled in the multiphase IPCC and compared to single-phase LandGEM and Australia's Solid Waste Calculator (SWC). In both cases, weight-averaging of methane generation parameters from waste composition data in single-phase models was effective in predicting cumulative methane generation from -7% to +6% of the multiphase models. The results underscore the understanding that multiphase models will not necessarily improve LFG generation prediction because the uncertainty of the method rests largely within the input parameters. A unique method of calculating the methane generation rate constant by mass of anaerobically degradable carbon was presented (k c ) and compared to existing methods, providing a better fit in 3 of 8 scenarios. Generally, single phase models with weighted-average inputs can accurately predict methane generation from multiple waste streams with varied characteristics; weighted averages should therefore be used instead of regional default values when comparing models. Translating multiphase first-order decay model input parameters by weighted average shows that single-phase models can predict cumulative methane generation within the level of uncertainty of many of the input parameters as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which indicates that decreasing the uncertainty of the input parameters will make the model more accurate rather than adding multiple phases or input parameters.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Modeling the influence of climate change on the mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Lamon, Lara; MacLeod, Matthew; Marcomini, Antonio; Hungerbühler, Konrad

2012-05-01

Climate forcing is forecasted to influence the Adriatic Sea region in a variety of ways, including increasing temperature, and affecting wind speeds, marine currents, precipitation and water salinity. The Adriatic Sea is intensively developed with agriculture, industry, and port activities that introduce pollutants to the environment. Here, we developed and applied a Level III fugacity model for the Adriatic Sea to estimate the current mass balance of polychlorinated biphenyls in the Sea, and to examine the effects of a climate change scenario on the distribution of these pollutants. The model's performance was evaluated for three PCB congeners against measured concentrations in the region using environmental parameters estimated from the 20th century climate scenario described in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC, and using Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. We find that modeled fugacities of PCBs in air, water and sediment of the Adriatic are in good agreement with observations. The model indicates that PCBs in the Adriatic Sea are closely coupled with the atmosphere, which acts as a net source to the water column. We used model experiments to assess the influence of changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation, marine currents, particulate organic carbon and air inflow concentrations forecast in the IPCC A1B climate change scenario on the mass balance of PCBs in the Sea. Assuming an identical PCBs' emission profile (e.g. use pattern, treatment/disposal of stockpiles, mode of entry), modeled fugacities of PCBs in the Adriatic Sea under the A1B climate scenario are higher because higher temperatures reduce the fugacity capacity of air, water and sediments, and because diffusive sources to the air are stronger. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Seasonal Response of Overland Flow and Sediment Loading to Climate and Land Use Land Cover Change in the Apalachicola River, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovenga, P. A.; Wang, D.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Located in Florida's panhandle, the Apalachicola River is the southernmost reach of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin. Streamflow and sediment drains to Apalachicola Bay within the Northern Gulf of Mexico, resulting in a direct influence on the ecology of the region, in particular seagrass and oyster production. This study examines the seasonal response of overland flow and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use land cover (LULC) change. A hydrologic model using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily discharge and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (circa 2100) to understand how parameters respond over a seasonal time frame to changes in climate only, LULC only, and coupled climate / LULC. These physically-based models incorporate digital elevation model (DEM), LULC, soil maps, climate data, and management controls. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to create stochastic temperature and precipitation inputs from four Global Climate Models (GCM), each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios for A1B, A2, and B1. These scenarios represent potential future emissions resulting from a range driving forces, e.g. social, economic, environmental, and technologic. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results from this study can be used to further understand climate and LULC implications to the Apalachicola Bay and surrounding region as well as similar fluvial estuaries while providing tools to better guide management and mitigation practices.

Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

Estimating the Contrail Impact on Climate Using the UK Met Office Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.

2008-12-01

With air travel predicted to increase over the coming century, the emissions associated with air traffic are expected to have a significant warming effect on climate. According to current best estimates, an important contribution comes from contrails. However, as reported by the IPCC fourth assessment report, these current best estimates still have a high uncertainty. The development and validation of contrail parameterizations in global climate models is therefore very important. This current study develops a contrail parameterization within the UK Met Office Climate Model. Using this new parameterization, we estimate that for the 2002 traffic, the global mean annual contrail coverage is approximately 0.11%, a value which in good agreement with several other estimates. The corresponding contrail radiative forcing (RF) is calculated to be approximately 4 and 6 mWm-2 in all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. These values lie within the lower end of the RF range reported by the latest IPCC assessment. The relatively high cloud masking effect on contrails observed by our parameterization compared with other studies is investigated, and a possible cause for this difference is suggested. The effect of the diurnal variations of air traffic on both contrail coverage and contrail RF is also investigated. The new parameterization is also employed in thirty-year slab-ocean model runs in order to give one of the first insights into contrail effects on daily temperature range and the climate impact of contrails.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Introducing Subgrid-scale convective cloud and aerosol interactions to the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling system

EPA Science Inventory

Many regional and global climate models include aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on grid-scale/resolved clouds. However, the interaction between aerosols and convective clouds remains highly uncertain, as noted in the IPCC AR4 report. The objective of this work is to help fill in ...

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?

PubMed

Fischer, Helen; Schütte, Stefanie; Depoux, Anneliese; Amelung, Dorothee; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-27

Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.

Simulating Soil C Stock with the Process-based Model CQESTR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollany, H.; Liang, Y.; Rickman, R.; Albrecht, S.; Follett, R.; Wilhelm, W.; Novak, J.; Douglas, C.

2009-04-01

The prospect of storing carbon (C) in soil, as soil organic matter (SOM), provides an opportunity for agriculture to contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while enhancing soil properties. Soil C models are useful for examining the complex interactions between crop, soil management practices and climate and their effects on long-term carbon storage or loss. The process-based carbon model CQESTR, pronounced ‘sequester,' was developed by USDA-ARS scientists at the Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, Oregon, USA. It computes the rate of biological decomposition of crop residues or organic amendments as they convert to SOM. CQESTR uses readily available field-scale data to assess long-term effects of cropping systems or crop residue removal on SOM accretion/loss in agricultural soil. Data inputs include weather, above- ground and below-ground biomass additions, N content of residues and amendments, soil properties, and management factors such as tillage and crop rotation. The model was calibrated using information from six long-term experiments across North America (Florence, SC, 19 yrs; Lincoln, NE, 26 yrs; Hoytville, OH, 31 yrs; Breton, AB, 60 yrs; Pendleton, OR, 76 yrs; and Columbia, MO, >100 yrs) having a range of soil properties and climate. CQESTR was validated using data from several additional long-term experiments (8 - 106 yrs) across North America having a range of SOM (7.3 - 57.9 g SOM/kg). Regression analysis of 306 pairs of predicted and measured SOM data under diverse climate, soil texture and drainage classes, and agronomic practices at 13 agricultural sites resulted in a linear relationship with an r2 of 0.95 (P < 0.0001) and a 95% confidence interval of 4.3 g SOM/kg. Estimated SOC values from CQESTR and IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were compared to observed values in three relatively long-term experiments (20 - 24 years). At one site, CQESTR and IPCC estimates of SOC stocks were within 5% of each other for three rotations. At a second site, decreasing tillage intensity increased SOC stocks for winter wheat-fallow rotation for both observed and estimated values by CQESTR and IPCC. At the third site, CQESTR simulated an increase in SOC stocks with increased fertility levels, while IPCC estimates of SOC stocks did not reflect an increase. The CQESTR model successfully predicts SOM dynamics from various management practices and offers the potential for C sequestration planning for C credits or to guide crop residue removal for bio-energy production without degrading the soil resource, environmental quality, or productivity.

Impacts of past and future climate change on wind energy resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaa, J. R.; Wood, A.; Eichelberger, S.; Westrick, K.

2009-12-01

The links between climate change and trends in wind energy resources have important potential implications for the wind energy industry, and have received significant attention in recent studies. We have conducted two studies that provide insights into the potential for climate change to affect future wind power production. In one experiment, we projected changes in power capacity for a hypothetical wind farm located near Kennewick, Washington, due to greenhouse gas-induced climate change, estimated using a set of regional climate model simulations. Our results show that the annual wind farm power capacity is projected to decrease 1.3% by 2050. In a wider study focusing on wind speed instead of power, we analyzed projected changes in wind speed from 14 different climate simulations that were performed in support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). Our results show that the predicted ensemble mean changes in annual mean wind speeds are expected to be modest. However, seasonal changes and changes predicted by individual models are large enough to affect the profitability of existing and future wind projects. The majority of the model simulations reveal that near-surface wind speed values are expected to shift poleward in response to the IPCC A2 emission scenario, particularly during the winter season. In the United States, most models agree that the mean annual wind speed values will increase in a region extending from the Great Lakes southward across the Midwest and into Texas. Decreased values, though, are predicted across most of the western United States. However, these predicted changes have a strong seasonal dependence, with wind speed increases over most of the United States during the winter and decreases over the northern United States during the summer.

Land-Use and Climate : first results from the LUCID experiments ; implications for experimental design in IPCC-AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Noblet, N.; Pitman, A.; Participants, Lucid

2009-04-01

The project "Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts" (LUCID) was conceived under the auspices of IGBP-iLEAPS and GEWEX-GLASS, to address the robustness of 'local' and possible remote impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes (LCC). LUCID explores, using methodologies that major climate modelling groups recognise, those impacts of LCC that are robust - that is, above the noise generated by model variability and consistent across a suite of climate models. To start with, seven climate models were run, in ensemble mode (5 realisations per 31-years long experiment), with prescribed observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice extent (SIc). Pre-industrial and present-day simulations were used to explore the impacts of biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change. The imposed LCC perturbation led to statistically significant changes in latent heat flux and near-surface temperature over the regions of land cover change, but few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of land cover change. They also highlight a dilemma for both historical hind-casts and future projections; land cover change is regionally important, but it is not feasible within the time frame of the next IPCC (AR5) assessment to implement this change commonly across multiple models. Further analysis are in progress and will be presented to identify the continental regions where changes in LCC may have been more important than the combined changes in SSTs, SIc and CO2 between the pre-industrial times and nowadays.

Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

2014-12-01

Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Measuring Engagement with the Potential Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, N.; Danielson, R. W.; Lombardi, D.

2015-12-01

Across three studies, we investigated engagement with the consequences of climate change. We drew from the conceptual change and risk analysis literatures to find the factors that determine how much people will care about future risks. Questions derived from these factors were then asked about many hypothesized consequences of climate change. These consequences were drawn from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report (IPCC, 2012) and, in the third study, additionally from the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014). The first two studies, using undergraduate students, demonstrated that some consequences were indeed considerably more engaging than others. The third study used a more representative sample of American adults, drawn from Amazon Mechanical Turk and used the Global Warming's Six Americas Screening Tool (Maibach, Leiserowitz, Roser-Renouf, Mertz, & Akerlof, 2011) in a large screening survey to find 20 participants in each of the six audiences defined by this tool. These participants were then asked about the potential consequences of climate change. Results again showed that some consequences are considered more engaging than others, and also showed the ways in which members of these six audiences perceive the consequences of climate change differently.

Measuring resilience to climate change: The benefits of forest conservation in the floodplain

Treesearch

Carolyn Kousky; Margaret Walls; Ziyan Chu

2014-01-01

The economic costs of flooding have increased in the United States over the last several decades, largely as a result of more people and property, and more valuable property, located in harm’s way (Pielke and Downton 2000). In addition, climate models predict increases in the intensity of precipitation events in many locations (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004; IPCC 2012). How...

Effects of climate change on an emperor penguin population: analysis of coupled demographic and climate models.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Serreze, Mark; Caswell, Hal

2012-09-01

Sea ice conditions in the Antarctic affect the life cycle of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We present a population projection for the emperor penguin population of Terre Adélie, Antarctica, by linking demographic models (stage-structured, seasonal, nonlinear, two-sex matrix population models) to sea ice forecasts from an ensemble of IPCC climate models. Based on maximum likelihood capture-mark-recapture analysis, we find that seasonal sea ice concentration anomalies (SICa ) affect adult survival and breeding success. Demographic models show that both deterministic and stochastic population growth rates are maximized at intermediate values of annual SICa , because neither the complete absence of sea ice, nor heavy and persistent sea ice, would provide satisfactory conditions for the emperor penguin. We show that under some conditions the stochastic growth rate is positively affected by the variance in SICa . We identify an ensemble of five general circulation climate models whose output closely matches the historical record of sea ice concentration in Terre Adélie. The output of this ensemble is used to produce stochastic forecasts of SICa , which in turn drive the population model. Uncertainty is included by incorporating multiple climate models and by a parametric bootstrap procedure that includes parameter uncertainty due to both model selection and estimation error. The median of these simulations predicts a decline of the Terre Adélie emperor penguin population of 81% by the year 2100. We find a 43% chance of an even greater decline, of 90% or more. The uncertainty in population projections reflects large differences among climate models in their forecasts of future sea ice conditions. One such model predicts population increases over much of the century, but overall, the ensemble of models predicts that population declines are far more likely than population increases. We conclude that climate change is a significant risk for the emperor penguin. Our analytical approach, in which demographic models are linked to IPCC climate models, is powerful and generally applicable to other species and systems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny

2007-04-30

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change,more » - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.« less

Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

2016-03-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

Impacts of episodic storms on coastal wetland processes in the Northeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Climate model simulations corresponding to IPCC emissions scenarios suggest that by 2100, increases in precipitation intensity, the number of heavy precipitation events, and the intensity of the wettest events are all expected to increase, while concurrently, one to three month d...

Evolution of the potential distribution area of french mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-02-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growths with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE - MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20 and 21 centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5°K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak, respectively) at the end of the 21 century. While both species have complementary growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21 century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-07-07

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-01-01

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies. PMID:22378808

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Northern African and Indian Precipitation at the end of the 21st Century: An Integrated Application of Regional and Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patricola, C. M.; Cook, K. H.

2008-12-01

As greenhouse warming continues there is growing concern about the future climate of both Africa, which is highlighted by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change, and India. Precipitation projections from the AOGCMs of the IPCC AR4 are relatively consistent over India, but not over northern Africa. Inconsistencies can be related to the model's inability to capture climate process correctly, deficiencies in physical parameterizations, different SST projections, or horizontal atmospheric resolution that is too coarse to realistically represent the tight gradients over West Africa and complex topography of East Africa and India. Treatment of the land surface in a model may also be an issue over West Africa and India where land-surface/atmosphere interactions are very important. Here a method for simulating future climate is developed and applied using a high-resolution regional model in conjunction with output from a suite of AOGCMs, drawing on the advantages of both the regional and global modeling approaches. Integration by the regional model allows for finer horizontal resolution and regionally appropriate selection of parameterizations and land-surface model. AOGCM output is used to provide SST projections and lateral boundary conditions to constrain the regional model. The control simulation corresponds to 1981-2000, and eight future simulations representing 2081-2100 are conducted, each constrained by a different AOGCM and forced by CO2 concentrations from the SRES A2 emissions scenario. After model spin-up, May through October remain for investigation. Analysis is focused on climate change parameters important for impacts on agriculture and water resource management, and is presented in a format compatible with the IPCC reports. Precipitation projections simulated by the regional model are quite consistent, with 75% or more ensemble members agreeing on the sign of the anomaly over vast regions of Africa and India. Over West Africa, where the regional model provides the greatest improvement over the AOGCMs in consistency of ensemble members, precipitation at the end of the century is generally projected to increase during May and decrease in June and July. Wetter conditions are simulated during August though October, with the exception of drying close to the Guinean Coast in August. In late summer, high rainfall rates are simulated more frequently in the future, indicating the possibility for increases in flooding events. The regional model's projections over India are in stark contrast to the AOGCM's, producing intense and generally widespread drying in August and September. The very promising method developed here is young and further potential developments are recognized, including the addition of ocean, vegetation, and dust models. Ensembles which employ other regional models, sets of parameterizations, and emissions scenarios should also be explored.

The rapid disintegration of projections: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the intergovernmental panel on climate change.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Jessica; Oreskes, Naomi; Oppenheimer, Michael

2012-10-01

How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the WAIS. Second, we provide a detailed case study of the decision not to provide a WAIS prediction in the Fourth Assessment Report. Third, we discuss the implications of this outcome for the general issue of scientists and policymakers working in assessment organizations to make projections. IPCC authors were less certain about potential WAIS futures than in previous assessment reports in part because of new information, but also because of the outcome of cultural processes within the IPCC, including how people were selected for and worked together within their writing groups. It became too difficult for IPCC assessors to project the range of possible futures for WAIS due to shifts in scientific knowledge as well as in the institutions that facilitated the interpretations of this knowledge.

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2012-01-01

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Model for estimating enteric methane emissions from United States dairy and feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Kebreab, E; Johnson, K A; Archibeque, S L; Pape, D; Wirth, T

2008-10-01

Methane production from enteric fermentation in cattle is one of the major sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the United States and worldwide. National estimates of methane emissions rely on mathematical models such as the one recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Models used for prediction of methane emissions from cattle range from empirical to mechanistic with varying input requirements. Two empirical and 2 mechanistic models (COWPOLL and MOLLY) were evaluated for their prediction ability using individual cattle measurements. Model selection was based on mean square prediction error (MSPE), concordance correlation coefficient, and residuals vs. predicted values analyses. In dairy cattle, COWPOLL had the lowest root MSPE and greatest accuracy and precision of predicting methane emissions (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.75). The model simulated differences in diet more accurately than the other models, and the residuals vs. predicted value analysis showed no mean bias (P = 0.71). In feedlot cattle, MOLLY had the lowest root MSPE with almost all errors from random sources (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.69). The IPCC model also had good agreement with observed values, and no significant mean (P = 0.74) or linear bias (P = 0.11) was detected when residuals were plotted against predicted values. A fixed methane conversion factor (Ym) might be an easier alternative to diet-dependent variable Ym. Based on the results, the 2 mechanistic models were used to simulate methane emissions from representative US diets and were compared with the IPCC model. The average Ym in dairy cows was 5.63% of GE (range 3.78 to 7.43%) compared with 6.5% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. In feedlot cattle, the average Ym was 3.88% (range 3.36 to 4.56%) compared with 3% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. Based on our simulations, using IPCC values can result in an overestimate of about 12.5% and underestimate of emissions by about 9.8% for dairy and feedlot cattle, respectively. In addition to providing improved estimates of emissions based on diets, mechanistic models can be used to assess mitigation options such as changing source of carbohydrate or addition of fat to decrease methane, which is not possible with empirical models. We recommend national inventories use diet-specific Ym values predicted by mechanistic models to estimate methane emissions from cattle.

Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.

2013-12-01

Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

2017-04-01

In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R. S. J. (2009), "The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application to FUND", Environmental and Resource Economics, 43 (3), 351-367. Edenhofer, O., Bauer, N., and Kriegler, E. (2005), "The Impact of Technological Change on Climate Protection and Welfare: Insights from the Model MIND", Ecological Economics, 54, 277-292. Neubersch, D., Held, H., and Otto, A., (2014), "Operationalizing Climate Targets under Learning: An Application of Cost-Risk Analysis", Climatic Change, 126, 305-318. Nordhaus, W. D., and Sztorc, P., (2013), DICE2013R: Introduction and User's Manual Nordhaus, W. D. (2014), "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches", Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, 1 (1/2, Spring/Summer, 2014), 273-312. IPCC (2016), Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Products, IPCC-XLIII/INF.7. UNFCCC (2015), Adoption of the Paris Agreement van Vuuren, D. P., Deetman, S., van Vliet, J., van den Berg, M. , van Ruijven, B.J., and Koelbl, B. (2013): "The Role of Negative CO2 Emissions for Reaching 2 °C - Insights from Integrated Assessment Modelling", Climatic Change, 118, 15-27.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Global precipitation measurements for validating climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapiador, F. J.; Navarro, A.; Levizzani, V.; García-Ortega, E.; Huffman, G. J.; Kidd, C.; Kucera, P. A.; Kummerow, C. D.; Masunaga, H.; Petersen, W. A.; Roca, R.; Sánchez, J.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Turk, F. J.

2017-11-01

The advent of global precipitation data sets with increasing temporal span has made it possible to use them for validating climate models. In order to fulfill the requirement of global coverage, existing products integrate satellite-derived retrievals from many sensors with direct ground observations (gauges, disdrometers, radars), which are used as reference for the satellites. While the resulting product can be deemed as the best-available source of quality validation data, awareness of the limitations of such data sets is important to avoid extracting wrong or unsubstantiated conclusions when assessing climate model abilities. This paper provides guidance on the use of precipitation data sets for climate research, including model validation and verification for improving physical parameterizations. The strengths and limitations of the data sets for climate modeling applications are presented, and a protocol for quality assurance of both observational databases and models is discussed. The paper helps elaborating the recent IPCC AR5 acknowledgment of large observational uncertainties in precipitation observations for climate model validation.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

PubMed

Freeman, Mark C; Wagner, Gernot; Zeckhauser, Richard J

2015-11-28

Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity--how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the 'likely' range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the 'best estimate'. We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: when might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news in the sense that it lowers societal well-being? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, definitely bad news. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the 'best estimate' may well be bad news. © 2015 The Author(s).

The importance of hydrological uncertainty assessment methods in climate change impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, M.; Scheidegger, A.; Stamm, C.

2014-08-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980s with a recent boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. From hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology has emerged, to a large extent shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the coming decades. The "standard" workflow relies on a model cascade from global circulation model (GCM) predictions for selected IPCC scenarios to future catchment hydrology. Uncertainty is present at each level and propagates through the model cascade. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. Our hypothesis was that the relative importance of climatic and hydrologic uncertainty is (among other factors) heavily influenced by the uncertainty assessment method. To test this we carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on two small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment with two different likelihood functions. One was a time series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was an approximate likelihood function for the flow quantiles. The results showed that the expected climatic impact on flow quantiles was small compared to prediction uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty assessment method actually determined what sources of uncertainty could be identified at all. This demonstrated that one could arrive at rather different conclusions about the causes behind predictive uncertainty for the same hydrological model and calibration data when considering different objective functions for calibration.

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

Latest research related to climate change analysis with applications in impact studies over the territory of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, Ana; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Djordjevic, Marija; Ruml, Mirjana; Rankovic-Vasic, Zorica; Przic, Zoran; Stojicic, Djurdja; Krzic, Aleksandra; Rajkovic, Borivoj

2015-04-01

Serbia is a country with relatively small scale terrain features with economy mostly based on local landowners' agricultural production. Climate change analysis must be downscaled accordingly, to recognize climatological features of the farmlands. Climate model simulations and impact studies significantly contribute to the future strategic planning in economic development and therefore impact analysis must be approached with high level of confidence. This paper includes research related to climate change and impacts in Serbia resulted from cooperative work of the modeling and user community. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections for the 21st century with multi-model approach and statistical bias correction are done in order to prepare model results for impact studies. Presented results are from simulations performed using regional EBU-POM model, which is forced with A1B and A2 SRES/IPCC (2007) with comparative analysis with other regional models and from the latest high resolution NMMB simulations forced with RCP8.5 IPCC scenario (2012). Application of bias correction of the model results is necessary when calculated indices are not linearly dependent on the model results and delta approach in presenting results with respect to present climate simulations is insufficient. This is most important during the summer over the north part of the country where model bias produce much higher temperatures and less precipitation, which is known as "summer drying problem" and is common in regional models' simulations over the Pannonian valley. Some of the results, which are already observed in present climate, like higher temperatures and disturbance in the precipitation pattern, lead to present and future advancement of the start of the vegetation period toward earlier dates, associated with an increased risk of the late spring frost, extended vegetation period, disturbed preparation for the rest period, increased duration and frequency of the draught periods, etc. Based on the projected climate changes an application is proposed of the ensemble seasonal forecasts for early preparation in case of upcoming unfavorable weather conditions. This paper was realized as a part of the projects "Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation" (43007) and "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Serbia" (37005) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for the period 2011-2015.

Rebased Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and observed Global Mean Temperature: constraints and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

One of the benchmarks of global climate models (GCMs) is that their slow, decadal or longer timescale variations in past changes in Global Mean Temperature (GMT) track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other by as much as 3 degrees [2]. Subtracting these offsets, or rebasing, is an integral part of comparisons between observed past GMT and the GMT anomalies generated by ensembles of GCMs. We will formalize how rebasing introduces constraints in how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear. Feedbacks in the different models when expressed through GMT are then to leading order linear. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, given the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters. As a consequence, the GMT timeseries future projections generated by the GCMs may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8, IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 2012]4, IPCC SPM.6

Developing perturbations for Climate Change Impact Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewitson, Bruce

Following the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report [TAR; IPCC, 2001], and the paucity of climate change impact assessments from developing nations, there has been a significant growth in activities to redress this shortcoming. However, undertaking impact assessments (in relation to malaria, crop stress, regional water supply, etc.) is contingent on available climate-scale scenarios at time and space scales of relevance to the regional issues of importance. These scales are commonly far finer than even the native resolution of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) (the principal tools for climate change research), let alone the skillful resolution (scales of aggregation at which GCM observational error is acceptable for a given application) of GCMs.Consequently, there is a growing demand for regional-scale scenarios, which in turn are reliant on techniques to downscale from GCMs, such as empirical downscaling or nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These methods require significant skill, experiential knowledge, and computational infrastructure in order to derive credible regional-scale scenarios. In contrast, it is often the case that impact assessment researchers in developing nations have inadequate resources with limited access to scientists in the broader international scientific community who have the time and expertise to assist. However, where developing effective downscaled scenarios is problematic, it is possible that much useful information can still be obtained for impact assessments by examining the system sensitivity to largerscale climate perturbations. Consequently, one may argue that the early phase of assessing sensitivity and vulnerability should first be characterized by evaluation of the first-order impacts, rather than immediately addressing the finer, secondary factors that are dependant on scenarios derived through downscaling.

Assessing Climate Change Risks Using a Multi-Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Scholze, M.; Prentice, C.

2007-12-01

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from the IPCC AR4 data archive using 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply or shifts in vegetation cover. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios. Instead, we consider the distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped according to the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degree C (including committed climate change simulations), 2-3 degree C, and >3 degree C. Here, we are contrasting two different methods for calculating the risks: first we use an equal weighting approach giving every model within one of the three sets the same weight, and second, we weight the models according to their ability to model ENSO. The differences are underpinning the need for the development of more robust performance metrics for global climate models.

Contributions of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program and the ARM Climate Research Facility to the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

SA Edgerton; LR Roeder

The Earth’s surface temperature is determined by the balance between incoming solar radiation and thermal (or infrared) radiation emitted by the Earth back to space. Changes in atmospheric composition, including greenhouse gases, clouds, and aerosols can alter this balance and produce significant climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tool for quantifying future climate change; however, there remain significant uncertainties in the GCM treatment of clouds, aerosol, and their effects on the Earth’s energy balance. The 2007 assessment (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports a substantial range among GCMs in climate sensitivity to greenhousemore » gas emissions. The largest contributor to this range lies in how different models handle changes in the way clouds absorb or reflect radiative energy in a changing climate (Solomon et al. 2007). In 1989, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science created the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program within the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) to address scientific uncertainties related to global climate change, with a specific focus on the crucial role of clouds and their influence on the transfer of radiation in the atmosphere. To address this problem, BER has adopted a unique two-pronged approach: * The ARM Climate Research Facility (ACRF), a scientific user facility for obtaining long-term measurements of radiative fluxes, cloud and aerosol properties, and related atmospheric characteristics in diverse climate regimes. * The ARM Science Program, focused on the analysis of ACRF data to address climate science issues associated with clouds, aerosols, and radiation, and to improve GCMs. This report describes accomplishments of the BER ARM Program toward addressing the primary uncertainties related to climate change prediction as identified by the IPCC.« less

From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for land...

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2010-01-01

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

Bias correction in Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and implications for the deterministic and stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global mean temperature (GMT) provides a simple means of benchmarking a broad ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) against past observed GMT which in turn provide headline assessments of the consequences of possible future forcing scenarios. The slow variations of past changes in GMT seen in different GCMs track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other [2]. Subtracting these offsets is an integral part of comparisons between ensembles of GCMs and observed past GMT. We will discuss how this constrains how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same, subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear; any feedback is to leading order linear in GMT. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, provided that the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters are known. As a consequence, the GCM's GMT timeseries may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8,IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 2012] 4, IPCC SPM.6

Verifying the UK agricultural N2O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Meneguz, E.; Skiba, U. M.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Cardenas, L. M.; Arnold, T.; Manning, A.; Dragosits, U.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential 300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates, in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and an alternative approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the alternative approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E. England; Ridge Hill, W. England; Mace Head, W. Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to correspond with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of land spreading of manures and fertiliser application. The model run using the default IPCC methodology was found to correspond with the observed data more closely than the alternative approach.

The use of Meteonorm weather generator for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remund, J.; Müller, S. C.; Schilter, C.; Rihm, B.

2010-09-01

The global climatological database Meteonorm (www.meteonorm.com) is widely used as meteorological input for simulation of solar applications and buildings. It's a combination of a climate database, a spatial interpolation tool and a stochastic weather generator. Like this typical years with hourly or minute time resolution can be calculated for any site. The input of Meteonorm for global radiation is the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, http://proto-geba.ethz.ch). All other meteorological parameters are taken from databases of WMO and NCDC (periods 1961-90 and 1996-2005). The stochastic generation of global radiation is based on a Markov chain model for daily values and an autoregressive model for hourly and minute values (Aguiar and Collares-Pereira, 1988 and 1992). The generation of temperature is based on global radiation and measured distribution of daily temperature values of approx. 5000 sites. Meteonorm generates also additional parameters like precipitation, wind speed or radiation parameters like diffuse and direct normal irradiance. Meteonorm can also be used for climate change studies. Instead of climate values, the results of IPCC AR4 results are used as input. From all 18 public models an average has been made at a resolution of 1°. The anomalies of the parameters temperature, precipitation and global radiation and the three scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been included. With the combination of Meteonorm's current database 1961-90, the interpolation algorithms and the stochastic generation typical years can be calculated for any site, for different scenarios and for any period between 2010 and 2200. From the analysis of variations of year to year and month to month variations of temperature, precipitation and global radiation of the past ten years as well of climate model forecasts (from project prudence, http://prudence.dmi.dk) a simple autoregressive model has been formed which is used to generate realistic monthly time series of future periods. Meteonorm can therefore be used as a relatively simple method to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution instead of using complicated and time consuming downscaling methods based on regional climate models. The combination of Meteonorm, gridded historical (based on work of Luterbach et al.) and IPCC results has been used for studies of vegetation simulation between 1660 and 2600 (publication of first version based on IS92a scenario and limited time period 1950 - 2100: http://www.pbl.nl/images/H5_Part2_van%20CCE_opmaak%28def%29_tcm61-46625.pdf). It's also applicable for other adaptation studies for e.g. road surfaces or building simulation. In Meteonorm 6.1 one scenario (IS92a) and one climate model has been included (Hadley CM3). In the new Meteonorm 7 (coming spring 2011) the model averages of the three above mentioned scenarios of the IPCC AR4 will be included.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #3: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON "LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, AND FORESTRY"

EPA Science Inventory

ORD is participating in the development of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on "Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry." Preparation of the Special Report was requested by the Conference of the Parties(COP) to the United Nations Framework Conve...

Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

PubMed

Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

2015-09-01

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenhong; Fu, Rong; Dickinson, Robert E.

2006-01-01

The global climate models for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) predict very different changes of rainfall over the Amazon under the SRES A1B scenario for global climate change. Five of the eleven models predict an increase of annual rainfall, three models predict a decrease of rainfall, and the other three models predict no significant changes in the Amazon rainfall. We have further examined two models. The UKMO-HadCM3 model predicts an El Niño-like sea surface temperature (SST) change and warming in the northern tropical Atlantic which appear to enhance atmospheric subsidence and consequently reduce clouds over the Amazon. The resultant increase of surface solar absorption causes a stronger surface sensible heat flux and thus reduces relative humidity of the surface air. These changes decrease the rate and length of wet season rainfall and surface latent heat flux. This decreased wet season rainfall leads to drier soil during the subsequent dry season, which in turn can delay the transition from the dry to wet season. GISS-ER predicts a weaker SST warming in the western Pacific and the southern tropical Atlantic which increases moisture transport and hence rainfall in the Amazon. In the southern Amazon and Nordeste where the strongest rainfall increase occurs, the resultant higher soil moisture supports a higher surface latent heat flux during the dry and transition season and leads to an earlier wet season onset.

Advancing Methods for Estimating Soil Nitrous Oxide Emissions by Incorporating Freeze-Thaw Cycles into a Tier 3 Model-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogle, S. M.; DelGrosso, S.; Parton, W. J.

2017-12-01

Soil nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural management are a key source of greenhouse gas emissions in many countries due to the widespread use of nitrogen fertilizers, manure amendments from livestock production, planting legumes and other practices that affect N dynamics in soils. In the United States, soil nitrous oxide emissions have ranged from 250 to 280 Tg CO2 equivalent from 1990 to 2015, with uncertainties around 20-30 percent. A Tier 3 method has been used to estimate the emissions with the DayCent ecosystem model. While the Tier 3 approach is considerably more accurate than IPCC Tier 1 methods, there is still the possibility of biases in emission estimates if there are processes and drivers that are not represented in the modeling framework. Furthermore, a key principle of IPCC guidance is that inventory compilers estimate emissions as accurately as possible. Freeze-thaw cycles and associated hot moments of nitrous oxide emissions are one of key drivers influencing emissions in colder climates, such as the cold temperate climates of the upper Midwest and New England regions of the United States. Freeze-thaw activity interacts with management practices that are increasing N availability in the plant-soil system, leading to greater nitrous oxide emissions during transition periods from winter to spring. Given the importance of this driver, the DayCent model has been revised to incorproate freeze-thaw cycles, and the results suggests that including this driver can significantly modify the emissions estimates in cold temperate climate regions. Consequently, future methodological development to improve estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soils would benefit from incorporating freeze-thaw cycles into the modeling framework for national territories with a cold climate.

Future Projections of Air Temperature and Precipitation for the CORDEX-MENA Domain by Using RegCM4.3.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, Tugba; Turp, M. Tufan; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2015-04-01

In this study, the projected changes for the periods of 2016 - 2035, 2046 - 2065, and 2081 - 2100 in the seasonal averages of air temperature and precipitation variables with respect to the reference period of 1981 - 2000 were examined for the Middle East and North Africa region. In this context, Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics) was run by using two different global climate models. MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and HadGEM2 of the Met Office Hadley Centre were dynamically downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX-MENA domain. The projections were realized according to the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change).

The Monash University Interactive Simple Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2013-12-01

The Monash university interactive simple climate model is a web-based interface that allows students and the general public to explore the physical simulation of the climate system with a real global climate model. It is based on the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) model, which is a climate model published by Dommenget and Floeter [2011] in the international peer review science journal Climate Dynamics. The model simulates most of the main physical processes in the climate system in a very simplistic way and therefore allows very fast and simple climate model simulations on a normal PC computer. Despite its simplicity the model simulates the climate response to external forcings, such as doubling of the CO2 concentrations very realistically (similar to state of the art climate models). The Monash simple climate model web-interface allows you to study the results of more than a 2000 different model experiments in an interactive way and it allows you to study a number of tutorials on the interactions of physical processes in the climate system and solve some puzzles. By switching OFF/ON physical processes you can deconstruct the climate and learn how all the different processes interact to generate the observed climate and how the processes interact to generate the IPCC predicted climate change for anthropogenic CO2 increase. The presentation will illustrate how this web-base tool works and what are the possibilities in teaching students with this tool are.

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.

Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-11-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

Big Data Challenges in Climate Science: Improving the Next-Generation Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Lee, Tsengdar J.; Mattmann, Chris A.; Lynnes, Christopher S.; Cinquini, Luca; Ramirez, Paul M.; Hart, Andre F.; Williams, Dean N.; Waliser, Duane; Rinsland, Pamela;

Advancing the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems to absorb climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; Bahn, Michael; Bardgett, Richard; Bloemen, Jasper; Chabay, Ilan; Erb, Karlheinz; Giamberini, Mariasilvia; Gingrich, Simone; Lavorel, Sandra; Liehr, Stefan; Rammig, Anja

2017-04-01

The recent and projected increases in climate variability and the frequency of climate extremes are posing a profound challenge to society and the biosphere (IPCC 2012, IPCC 2013). Climate extremes can affect natural and managed ecosystems more severely than gradual warming. The ability of ecosystems to resist and recover from climate extremes is therefore of fundamental importance for society, which strongly relies on their ability to supply provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services. Society in turn triggers land-use and management decisions that affect ecosystem properties. Thus, ecological and socio-economic conditions are tightly coupled in what has been referred to as the social-ecological system. For ensuring human well-being in the light of climate extremes it is crucial to enhance the resilience of the social-ecological system (SES) across spatial, temporal and institutional scales. Stakeholders, such as resource managers, urban, landscape and conservation planners, decision-makers in agriculture and forestry, as well as natural hazards managers, require an improved knowledge base for better-informed decision making. To date the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of SESs to climate extremes is not well understood and large uncertainties exist as to the legacies of climate extremes on ecosystems and on related societal structures and processes. Moreover, we lack empirical evidence and incorporation of simulated future ecosystem and societal responses to support pro-active management and enhance social-ecological resilience. In our presentation, we outline the major research gaps and challenges to be addressed for understanding and enhancing the adaptive capacity of SES to absorb and adapt to climate extremes, including acquisition and elaboration of long-term monitoring data and improvement of ecological models to better project climate extreme effects and provide model uncertainties. We highlight scientific challenges and discuss conceptual and observational gaps that need to be overcome to advance this inter- and transdisciplinary topic.

Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Somot, S.; Mariotti, A.

2009-11-01

The Mediterranean basin is a region characterized by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle. Hence, the impact of global warming on the water resources in the Mediterranean zone is one of the major concerns for the scientific community. The future climate projections used to elaborate the IPCC report of 2007 show great alterations in the evaporation and precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea at the end of 21st century. In this work we investigate the changes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget by using SRES-A1B scenario experiments performed with high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs provide good estimates of the water budget components, in particular with a significant improvement of the runoff and Black Sea discharge terms compared to the coarser resolution general circulation models (GCMs) used in the last Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report. As for the case of GCMs, the RCMs show that the Mediterranean water budget is likely to be significantly altered at the end of 21st century. The response of the hydrological variables to global warming starts to be statistically significant from 2050, though some alterations are already observed before 2050. The RCMs predict an increase of evaporation, and a decrease of precipitation, and river and Black Sea discharge, yielding to a large increase of the Mediterranean fresh water deficit. The freshwater deficit for the period 2070-2099 related to 1950-1999 presents a mean increase of +40% for both RCMs and GCMs.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Rescuing Data from International Scientific Assessments: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Xing, X.

2016-12-01

International scientific assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments represent significant efforts by the global scientific community to review, synthesize, and communicate diverse scientific knowledge, data, and information to support societal decision making on pressing problems such as resource management and climate change. To support the transparency, integrity, and usability of these assessments, it is vital that the underlying data used in these assessments be made openly available and usable by diverse stakeholders. Unfortunately, due to the many geographically dispersed contributors to assessments of this kind, as well as the severe time pressures and limited resources when assessments are conducted, appropriate management and preservation of these data are not always a priority. This can lead to the need to "rescue" key data to ensure their long-term preservation, integrity, accessibility, and appropriate reuse, especially in subsequent assessments. We describe here efforts over two decades to rescue selected data from the MA and IPCC assessments, to work with assessment authors and other contributors to validate and document assessment data, and to develop appropriate levels of data stewardship in light of potential user needs and constrained resources. The IPCC efforts are supported by the IPCC Data Distribution Center (DDC), which is operated collaboratively by the Center for Environmental Data Analysis in the United Kingdom, the World Data Center-Climate in Germany, and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) in the U.S. With the sixth IPCC assessment cycle now starting, a key challenge is to help the assessment community improve data management during the assessment process to reduce the risks of data loss, inadequate documentation, incomplete provenance, unnecessary data restrictions, and other problems.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Future Projections of ENSO and Drought (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, M. A.

2009-12-01

Jule Charney, who was my advisor, worked very broadly - and profoundly - on climate dynamics. In this discussion of the present state of knowledge I will focus on two aspects of climate that I view as legacies of his work: our ability to project climate variability in the tropics and to project drought. (I have in mind his work with Shukla on predictability of monsoons, and Charney 1975, Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel., Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 193-202). First, I will consider the projections of ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) in a warming world. (My own interest in ENSO was piqued in discussions with Charney and others during the ENSO-influenced blocking events in the late 1970s; in good measure, the approach I took to understanding and modeling ENSO was based in my thesis work.) Current IPCC models differ markedly in their projections of the mean state of the equatorial Pacific, some favoring a more “El Niño- like”, some the opposite. Possible reasons for these disagreements will be considered in the light of our understanding of ENSO and tropical climate more generally. Observational data for the past century and a half will figure prominently. Droughts in the US Southwest have a strong ENSO signal, but IPCC models are fairly consistent in projecting enhanced drought there. The reasons for this will be discussed. Models are less consistent in their predictions of the future Sahel. I will discuss what is understood about causes of drought in the Sahel, which appear to point toward sea surface temperature as the controlling influence, in contrast to Charney’s albedo hypothesis.

Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in California—Historical and Future Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

2014-12-01

During the past decade, a wide range of insights about the character and causes of extreme orographic precipitation in California has emerged, based on our growing understanding of the presence, mechanisms and impacts of "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) in the extratropical atmosphere. When an AR reaches and encounters the Coastal Ranges and Sierra Nevada of California, the resulting orographically driven storms are key players in many important weather, hydrologic and ecological processes in the State, including floods and floodplain inundations, droughts, groundwater recharge, and surface-water resources (see table). The intensities, storm totals, geographical distributions and impacts of AR storms in California are determined by many factors, including among the most straightforward: The numbers of ARs making landfall each year The amounts of vapor being transported by the ARs The direction of vapor transport by the AR relative to perpendiculars to the mountain ranges (for maximum uplift) The duration of AR passage overhead of a given location The temperature of an AR as a determinant of snowline altitudes The stability of the atmosphere within which the AR is embedded The closeness of the air in the AR to saturation (how much uplift is needed to drive intense precipitation) ARs are present in weather forecast models as well as in the long-range climate models used to project future climate changes in response to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Research into the future of ARs over California was first reported in the literature in 2011 (based on IPCC AR4 climate models) and is being extended now (to IPCC AR5 models) to assess projected changes in the full range of factors listed above with the aim of predicting how climate change will affect these important storms and their impacts in coming decades.

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.

2012-01-01

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-01

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-04-02

This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators andmore » stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)/NOAA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute (USC/ISI). All ESG-CET work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Through the ESG project, the ESG-CET team has developed and delivered a production environment for climate data from multiple climate model sources (e.g., CMIP (IPCC), CESM, ocean model data (e.g., Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (e.g., Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Microwave Limb Sounder), and analysis and visualization tools) that serves a worldwide climate research community. Data holdings are distributed across multiple sites including LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL as well as unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), and NASA/JPL. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users who want to understand it, process it, extract value from it, visualize it, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort is extremely large and complex, but it will be incredibly valuable for building 'science gateways' to critical climate resources (such as CESM, CMIP5, ARM, NARCCAP, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), etc.) for processing the next IPCC assessment report. Continued ESG progress will result in a production-scale system that will empower scientists to attempt new and exciting data exchanges, which could ultimately lead to breakthrough climate science discoveries.« less

Global projections and climate stabilisation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

The Summary for policy makers of the 5th Assessment Report of the Working Group 1 of IPCC has a figure that has no equivalent in previous IPCC assessment reports. This new figure shows the change in global average surface temperature as a function of cumulative anthropogenic emissions of CO2. In this talk I will describe how the concept of transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) that supports that figure emerged from the literature over the recent years and what are the fundamental physical and biogeochemical processes that explain this relationship and its linearity. I will also explore the implication of TCRE for long-term climate change and mitigation strategies as well as the limitations of the concept of TCRE.

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge The Fourth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC) in 2007 was unequivocal in its message that warming of the global climate system is now occurring, and found...

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-01-01

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

2009-04-01

Drought has significant environmental and socio-economic impacts in Australia. Government assistance for drought events is guided by the current National Drought Policy (NDP). The Commonwealth Government provides support to farmers and rural communities under the Exceptional Circumstances (EC) arrangements and other drought programs, while state and territory governments also participate in the NDP and provide support measures of their own. To be classified as an EC event, the event must be rare, that is must not have occurred more than once on average in every 20-25 years. Given the likely increase in the area of the world affected by droughts in future due to climate change (IPCC, 2007), this paper presents assessments on how climate change may affect the concept of a one in 20-25 year event into the future for Australia. As droughts can be experienced and defined in different ways, many drought indices are available to monitor and to assess drought conditions. Commonly, these indices are categorised into four types: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic. The meteorological drought indices are more widely used because they require data that are readily available and that they are relatively easy to calculate. However, meteorological drought indices based on rainfall alone fail to include the important contribution of evaporation. Here, the assessment is made using outputs of 13 global climate models (GCMs) and a meteorological drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). It incorporates the aggregated deficits between the rainfall and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. If the RDI were the sole trigger for EC declarations, then the mean projections indicate that more declarations would be likely in the future. As a comparison, results from an assessment based on other measures (temperature, rainfall, and soil wetness) will also be presented. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007 - The physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

Climate change and the biosphere

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

Chapter 3: Climate change and the relevance of historical forest conditions

Treesearch

H.D. Safford; M. North; M.D. Meyer

2012-01-01

Increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are modifying the Earth's climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea...

Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.

2012-07-01

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management.more » The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)« less

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.

PubMed

Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

2008-12-01

Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.

Incorporating Climate Change Effects into Next-Generation Coastal Inundation Decision Support Systems: An Integrated and Community-Based Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Y.; Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; LaRow, T.; Chassignet, E.; Stefanova, L. B.; Lu, J.; Xie, L.; Montalvo, S.; Liu, J.; Liu, B.

2012-12-01

75% of the world population lives within 100 km from the coastline. Coastal communities are subject to increasing coastal inundation risk due to the combined effects of hurricane-induced storm surge, tsunami, climate change, and sea level rise. This study is developing the next generation decision support systems (DSS) for storm surge and coastal inundation by incorporating the climate change impacts on hurricanes and sea level rise (SLR) along the Florida and North Carolina coast. Using a new methodology (instead of the "bath tub" approach) enhanced by the Institute for Sustainable Coastal Environment and Infrastructure (InSCEI) at University of Florida (UF), highly accurate and efficient coastal inundation maps (Base Flood Elevations and Surge Atlas) are being produced for current climate conditions. Atmospheric and climate scientists at Florida State University (FSU) and North Carolina State University (NCSU) are using global (FSU/COAPS) and regional (WRF) atmospheric models to estimate the range in hurricane activities during 2020-2040 and 2080-2100, using projected SSTs from the IPCC CMIP5 climate scenarios as lower boundary conditions. SLR experts at NCSU and FSU are analyzing historical sea level data and conducting numerical modeling to estimate the SLR at the coastal boundaries for the same IPCC scenarios. UF and NCSU are using the hurricane ensembles and the SLR scenarios provided by FSU and NCSU as input to storm surge and inundation models (CH3D-SSMS and CMAEPS, respectively) to produce high resolution inundation maps which include climate change effects. These future-climate coastal inundation maps will be much more accurate than the current ones and greatly improve the stakeholders' ability to mitigate coastal inundation risk throughout the U.S. and the world. These inundation maps for current and future climates will be communicated to a wide spectrum of stakeholders for feedback and further improvement. A national workshop will be held in January 2013 to engage stakeholders, researchers, and managers (federal, state, and local) of coastal inundation to develop strategies to improve communications among the various entities and to gather inputs on the development of the next -generation coastal inundation decision support system.

Communication and perception of uncertainty via graphics in disciplinary and interdisciplinary climate change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackner, Bettina C.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2015-04-01

Besides written and spoken language, graphical displays play an important role in communicating scientific findings or explaining scientific methods, both within one and between various disciplines. Uncertainties and probabilities are generally difficult to communicate, especially via graphics. Graphics including uncertainty sometimes need detailed written or oral descriptions to be understood. "Good" graphics should ease scientific communication, especially amongst different disciplines. One key objective of the Doctoral Programme "Climate Change: Uncertainties, Thresholds and Coping Strategies" (http://dk-climate-change.uni-graz.at/en/), located at the University of Graz, is to reach a better understanding of climate change uncertainties by bridging research in multiple disciplines, including physical climate sciences, geosciences, systems and sustainability sciences, environmental economics, and climate ethics. This asks for efforts into the formulation of a "common language", not only as to words, but also as to graphics. The focus of this work is on two topics: (1) What different kinds of uncertainties (e.g., data uncertainty, model uncertainty) are included in the graphics of the recent IPCC reports of all three working groups (WGs) and in what ways do uncertainties get illustrated? (2) How are these graphically displayed uncertainties perceived by researchers of a similar research discipline and from researchers of different disciplines than the authors of the graphics? To answer the first question, the IPCC graphics including uncertainties are grouped and analyzed with respect to different kinds of uncertainties to filter out most of the commonly used types of displays. The graphics will also be analyzed with respect to their WG origin, as we assume that graphics from researchers rooted in, e.g., physical climate sciences and geosciences (mainly IPCC WG 1) differ from those of researchers rooted in, e.g., economics or system sciences (mainly WG 3). In a subsequent analysis, some basic types of graphics displaying uncertainty are selected to serve as input for the construction of "makeshift graphics" (displaying only the main features but including no detailed title or caption). These makeshift graphics are then used to assess how the displayed features are perceived and understood by researchers of various disciplines. In this initial study, this analysis will be based on results of a workshop including the wide diversity of researchers within the FWF-DK Climate Change. We will present first results of this work.

Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

2008-07-01

Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

Projection of Carbon Dynamics in the Marine West Coast Forests under Climate and Land Cover changes Using General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, Y.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Young, C.; Werner, J.; Dahal, D.; Liu, J.; Schmidt, G.

2012-12-01

Climate and land cover changes may influence the capacity of the terrestrial ecosystems to be carbon sinks or sources. The objective of this study was to investigate the potential change of the carbon sequestration in the Marine West Coast Forests ecoregion in the Pacific Northwest United States using the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). In GEMS, the underlying biogeochemical model, Erosion and Deposition Carbon Model (EDCM), was used and calibrated using MODIS net primary production (NPP) and grain yield data during the baseline period from 2002 to 2005, and then validated with another four-year period from 2006 to 2009. GEMS-EDCM was driven using projected climate from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three IPCC scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) and derived land cover data from the FORecasting SCEnarios (FORE-SCE) model under the same three IPCC scenarios for the period from 2006 to 2050. This ecoregion, two-thirds of which is covered by forest, was projected to continue to gain carbon from 2005 to 2050, with an annual carbon sequestration of about -3 Tg C. It was also predicted that live biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) would contain about 48% and 33% of the total carbon storage by 2050, respectively. In addition, forest carbon sequestration (-2 Tg C yr-1) demonstrated to be the largest sink among all ecosystems, accounting for 73% of the total, followed by grass/shrub and agriculture. Overall, results about predicted dynamics of carbon storage and sequestration can be informative to policy makers for seeking mitigation plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions.

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Woo, Jung-Hun

2010-02-01

Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool are used to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. On the basis of the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally averaged 4th highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly averaged PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 microm) for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr(-1) in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr(-1) in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate change impacts on air quality for the six regions and five cities examined. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. Additional control costs for offsetting the impacts everywhere in the United States could be larger than the estimates in this study. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements and should be considered in developing control strategies for achieving air quality targets in the future.

Integration and Exposure of Large Scale Computational Resources Across the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, D.; Maxwell, T. P.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.; Chaudhary, A.; Ames, S.

2015-12-01

As the size of remote sensing observations and model output data grows, the volume of the data has become overwhelming, even to many scientific experts. As societies are forced to better understand, mitigate, and adapt to climate changes, the combination of Earth observation data and global climate model projects is crucial to not only scientists but to policy makers, downstream applications, and even the public. Scientific progress on understanding climate is critically dependent on the availability of a reliable infrastructure that promotes data access, management, and provenance. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) has created such an environment for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ESGF provides a federated global cyber infrastructure for data access and management of model outputs generated for the IPCC Assessment Reports (AR). The current generation of the ESGF federated grid allows consumers of the data to find and download data with limited capabilities for server-side processing. Since the amount of data for future AR is expected to grow dramatically, ESGF is working on integrating server-side analytics throughout the federation. The ESGF Compute Working Team (CWT) has created a Web Processing Service (WPS) Application Programming Interface (API) to enable access scalable computational resources. The API is the exposure point to high performance computing resources across the federation. Specifically, the API allows users to execute simple operations, such as maximum, minimum, average, and anomalies, on ESGF data without having to download the data. These operations are executed at the ESGF data node site with access to large amounts of parallel computing capabilities. This presentation will highlight the WPS API, its capabilities, provide implementation details, and discuss future developments.

Projected Changes to Streamflow Characteristics in Quebec Basins as Simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM4)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huziy, O.; Sushama, L.; Khaliq, M.; Lehner, B.; Laprise, R.; Roy, R.

2011-12-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and increase in precipitation for some regions around the world, including the northern mid- to high-latitudes, is expected in future climate. This will have an impact on mean and extreme flow characteristics, which need to be assessed for better development of adaptation strategies. Analysis of the mean and extreme streamflow characteristics for Quebec (North-eastern Canada) basins in current climate and their projected changes in future climate are assessed using a 10 member ensemble of current (1970 - 1999) and future (2041 - 2070) Canadian RCM (CRCM4) simulations. Validation of streamflow characteristics, performed by comparing modeled values with those observed, available from the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) shows that the model captures reasonably well the high flows. Results suggest increase in mean and 10 year return levels of 1 day high flows, which appear significant for most of the northern basins.

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) v1.0: an extensible and fully documented open-source re-implementation of the Bern reduced-form model for global carbon cycle-climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strassmann, Kuno M.; Joos, Fortunat

2018-05-01

The Bern Simple Climate Model (BernSCM) is a free open-source re-implementation of a reduced-form carbon cycle-climate model which has been used widely in previous scientific work and IPCC assessments. BernSCM represents the carbon cycle and climate system with a small set of equations for the heat and carbon budget, the parametrization of major nonlinearities, and the substitution of complex component systems with impulse response functions (IRFs). The IRF approach allows cost-efficient yet accurate substitution of detailed parent models of climate system components with near-linear behavior. Illustrative simulations of scenarios from previous multimodel studies show that BernSCM is broadly representative of the range of the climate-carbon cycle response simulated by more complex and detailed models. Model code (in Fortran) was written from scratch with transparency and extensibility in mind, and is provided open source. BernSCM makes scientifically sound carbon cycle-climate modeling available for many applications. Supporting up to decadal time steps with high accuracy, it is suitable for studies with high computational load and for coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs), for example. Further applications include climate risk assessment in a business, public, or educational context and the estimation of CO2 and climate benefits of emission mitigation options.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile).

PubMed

Orrego, R; Abarca-Del-Río, R; Ávila, A; Morales, L

2016-01-01

Climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962-1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070-2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°-40°S and 71°-74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns such as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE PAGES

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.; ...

2016-09-28

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Enhanced mesoscale climate projections in TAR and AR5 IPCC scenarios: a case study in a Mediterranean climate (Araucanía Region, south central Chile)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrego, R.; Abarca-del-Rio, R.; Avila, A.

Here, climate change scenarios are computed on a large scale, not accounting for local variations presented in historical data and related to human scale. Based on historical records, we validate a baseline (1962–1990) and correct the bias of A2 and B2 regional projections for the end of twenty-first century (2070–2100) issued from a high resolution dynamical downscaled (using PRECIS mesoscale model, hereinafter DGF-PRECIS) of Hadley GCM from the IPCC 3rd Assessment Report (TAR). This is performed for the Araucanía Region (Chile; 37°–40°S and 71°–74°W) using two different bias correction methodologies. Next, we study high-resolution precipitations to find monthly patterns suchmore » as seasonal variations, rainfall months, and the geographical effect on these two scenarios. Finally, we compare the TAR projections with those from the recent Assessment Report 5 (AR5) to find regional precipitation patterns and update the Chilean `projection. To show the effects of climate change projections, we compute the rainfall climatology for the Araucanía Region, including the impact of ENSO cycles (El Niño and La Niña events). The corrected climate projection from the high-resolution dynamical downscaled model of the TAR database (DGF-PRECIS) show annual precipitation decreases: B2 (-19.19 %, -287 ± 42 mm) and A2 (-43.38 %, -655 ± 27.4 mm per year. Furthermore, both projections increase the probability of lower rainfall months (lower than 100 mm per month) to 64.2 and 72.5 % for B2 and A2, respectively.« less

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

75 FR 12232 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

77 FR 11533 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2010; Notice of Availability and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-27

... recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory... of Atmospheric Programs, Climate Change Division, (202) 343-9432, [email protected

78 FR 12310 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-22

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

76 FR 10026 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2009

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-23

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

2009-01-01

The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

2018-01-17

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katzav, Joel

2014-05-01

I bring out the limitations of four important views of what the target of useful climate model assessment is. Three of these views are drawn from philosophy. They include the views of Elisabeth Lloyd and Wendy Parker, and an application of Bayesian confirmation theory. The fourth view I criticise is based on the actual practice of climate model assessment. In bringing out the limitations of these four views, I argue that an approach to climate model assessment that neither demands too much of such assessment nor threatens to be unreliable will, in typical cases, have to aim at something other than the confirmation of claims about how the climate system actually is. This means, I suggest, that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) focus on establishing confidence in climate model explanations and predictions is misguided. So too, it means that standard epistemologies of science with pretensions to generality, e.g., Bayesian epistemologies, fail to illuminate the assessment of climate models. I go on to outline a view that neither demands too much nor threatens to be unreliable, a view according to which useful climate model assessment typically aims to show that certain climatic scenarios are real possibilities and, when the scenarios are determined to be real possibilities, partially to determine how remote they are.

Role of snow and glacier melt in controlling river hydrology in Liddar watershed (western Himalaya) under current and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeelani, G.; Feddema, Johannes J.; van der Veen, Cornelis J.; Stearns, Leigh

2012-12-01

Snowmelt and icemelt are believed to be important regulators of seasonal discharge of Himalayan rivers. To analyze the long term contribution of snowmelt and glacier/icemelt to river hydrology we apply a water budget model to simulate hydrology of the Liddar watershed in the western Himalaya, India for the 20th century (1901-2010) and future IPCC A1B climate change scenario. Long term (1901-2010) temperature and precipitation data in this region show a warming trend (0.08°C yr-1) and an increase in precipitation (0.28 mm yr-1), with a significant variability in seasonal trends. In particular, winter months have undergone the most warming, along with a decrease in precipitation rates; precipitation has increased throughout the spring. These trends have accelerated the melting and rapid disappearance of snow, causing a seasonal redistribution in the availability of water. Our model results show that about 60% of the annual runoff of the Liddar watershed is contributed from the snowmelt, while only 2% is contributed from glacier ice. The climate trend observed from the 1901 to 2010 time period and its impact on the availability of water will become significantly worse under the IPCC climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that there is a significant shift in the timing and quantity of water runoff in this region of the Himalayas due to snow distribution and melt. With greatly increased spring runoff and its reductions in summer potentially leading to reduced water availability for irrigation agriculture in summer.

Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.

PubMed

Emanuel, Kerry

2017-11-28

We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey's magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981-2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081-2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

PubMed

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

The effects of climate-change-induced drought and freshwater wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; Kleinebecker, Till; Middleton, B.A.

2012-01-01

Drought cycles in wetlands may become more frequent and severe in the future, with consequences for wetland distribution and function. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, 2012. Online: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf, climate-change is likely to affect precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns so that the world’s wetlands may have more frequent episodes of extreme flooding and drought. This chapter contributes to a worldwide view of how wetland processes may be affected by these predicted changes in climate. Specifically, the occurrence of drought may increase, and that increase may affect the critical processes that sustain biodiversity in wetlands. We include specific examples that explore the effects of drought and other climate-change factors on wetland function in various parts of the world. In a concluding section we discuss management strategies for climate-change in wetlands. The synthesis of information in this chapter will contribute to a better understanding of how climate-change-induced drought may affect the function and distribution of wetlands in the future.

Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Contaminant Pulses

EPA Science Inventory

Converting land to human-dominated uses has increased contaminant loads in streams and rivers and vastly transformed hydrological cycles (Vitousek et al. 1997). More recently, climate change has further altered hydrologic cycles and variability of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Toge...

Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges.

PubMed

Alley, Richard B

2003-09-15

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska

PubMed Central

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID:24023925

Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.

PubMed

Wagner, Paul D; Bhallamudi, S Murty; Narasimhan, Balaji; Kantakumar, Lakshmi N; Sudheer, K P; Kumar, Shamita; Schneider, Karl; Fiener, Peter

2016-01-01

Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to +11.0mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.

PubMed

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

A Brazilian Vulnerability Index Towards Natural Disasters and Climatic Change - Flashfloods and Landslides.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debortoli, N. S.; Camarinha, P. I., Sr.; Marengo, J. A.; Rodrigues, R.

2015-12-01

There are some evidences that hydrological climate extremes events have become more frequent an intense in the last decades due to climatic change. In Brazil, flashfloods and landslides were responsible for 74% of the deaths related to natural disasters in 1991-2010 period. In this sense, climate change could be considered a threat which can further increase these numbers, if actions of adaptation and reducing vulnerability are not taken. To evaluate Brazil's vulnerability hotspots to these disasters, two vulnerability indexes were developed using three sets of variables: (1) climate, with IPCC climate extreme indexes; (2) environmental, including land use, drainage systems, relief map, slope, road density and hydrography variables; (3) socioeconomic, including Gini coefficient, HDI (Human Development Index), housing conditions and poverty-related index. The variables were normalized on a scale between 0 to 1 and related using Map Algebra technique (ArcGIS). As part of the effort to contribute to the elaboration of the Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and to contribute to the assessment of impacts on strategic country's issues, simulations at higher resolution were carried out using Eta-20km RCM (Regional Climate Model) nested with two global climate models: HadGEM ES and MIROC 5 (INPE Brazilian National Institute for Space Research). For the baseline period of 1961-1990, the vulnerability indexes were adjusted by an iterative process, which was validated by comparing it to the Brazilian National Disasters Data. The same indexes found at baseline were used to estimate the vulnerability until the end of the XXI century, using the 4.5 and 8.5 IPCC/AR5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. The results indicate a large increase in Brazil's vulnerability to landslides mainly in coastal zone, southern states, high lands of southeast states, and along the Amazon River due to climatic aspects only, not considering other factors such as increase in population size, etc. Flashfloods vulnerability, on the other hand, increases mostly in the south/southeast regions, the northeast coastal zone and parts of the Amazon basin. Funded by: Ministry of Science and Technology of Brazil and the United Nations Development Program in Brazil.

Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion

Treesearch

S. E. Litschert; D. M. Theobald; T. C. Brown

2014-01-01

Forests in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion surround the headwaters of several major rivers in the western and central US. Future climatic changes will increase the incidence of wildfire in those forests, and will likely lead to changes in downstream water quality, including sediment loads.We estimated soil loss under the historic climate and two IPCC climate change...

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

76 FR 78601 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Western...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-19

... climate change and provides several references about the effects of climate change in general to support this claim. The petition explains that human-induced climate change is causing global increases of...; Fagre 2005, p. 1; Hall and Fagre 2003, p. 139; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007a, p...

Severe Weather in United States Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth; Wehner, Michael; Zobel, Zachary

2014-05-01

The science has become clear and convincing that the Earth's climate is rapidly changing [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014]. Along with the overall changes in climate, there is strong evidence of an increasing trend over recent decades in the frequency, intensity, and duration of some types of extreme weather events, with resulting effects on U.S. society.

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Climate impacts on palm oil yields in the Nigerian Niger Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoro, Stanley U.; Schickhoff, Udo; Boehner, Juergen; Schneider, Uwe A.; Huth, Neil

2016-04-01

Palm oil production has increased in recent decades and is estimated to increase further. The optimal role of palm oil production, however, is controversial because of resource conflicts with alternative land uses. Local conditions and climate change affect resource competition and the desirability of palm oil production. Based on this, crop yield simulations using different climate model output under different climate scenarios could be important tool in addressing the problem of uncertainty quantification among different climate model outputs. Previous studies on this region have focused mostly on single experimental fields, not considering variations in Agro-Ecological Zones, climatic conditions, varieties and management practices and, in most cases not extending to various IPCC climate scenarios and were mostly based on single climate model output. Furthermore, the uncertainty quantification of the climate- impact model has rarely been investigated on this region. To this end we use the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to simulate the regional climate impact on oil palm yield over the Nigerian Niger Delta. We also examine whether the use of crop yield model output ensemble reduces the uncertainty rather than the use of climate model output ensemble. The results could serve as a baseline for policy makers in this region in understanding the interaction between potentials of energy crop production of the region as well as its food security and other negative feedbacks that could be associated with bioenergy from oil palm. Keywords: Climate Change, Climate impacts, Land use and Crop yields.

Climate, Water and Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2003-04-01

In light of the recent IPCC Climate Change Assessment and recent progress made in meteorological and hydrological modelling, the directors of the Nordic hydrological institutes (CHIN) initiated a research project "Climate, Water and Energy" (CWE) with funding from the Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic Council of Ministers focusing on climatic impact assessment in the energy sector. Climatic variability and change affect the hydrological systems, which in turn affect the energy sector, this will increase the risk associated with the development and use of water resources in the Nordic countries. Within the CWE project four thematic groups work on this issue of climatic change and how changes in precipitation and temperature will have direct influences on runoff. A primary aim of the CWE climate group is to derive a common scenario or a "best-guess" estimate of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent regional climate change experiments and representing the change from 1990 to 2050 under the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. A data set, along with the most important information for using the scenario is available at the project web site. The glacier group has chosen 8 glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. The long time series group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group will select and quality control time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. The hydrological modelling group has reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios, while production of new results based on the composite scenario from the CWE-climate group depends on other projects. The product of the project will be an in-depth analysis of the present status of research and know-how in the sphere of climatic and hydrological research in the Nordic countries. It will be a synthesis and integration of present research with focus on the needs of the energy sector. It will also identify and prioritise key future research areas that are of benefit to the energy sector.

Advanced Large Scale Cross Domain Temporal Topic Modeling Algorithms to Infer the Influence of Recent Research on IPCC Assessment Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeman, J.; Halem, M.; Finin, T.; Cane, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately every five years dating back to 1989, thousands of climate scientists, research centers and government labs volunteer to prepare comprehensive Assessment Reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These are highly curated reports distributed to 200 nation policy makers. There have been five IPCC Assessment Reports to date, the latest leading to a Paris Agreement in Dec. 2016 signed thus far by 172 nations to limit the amount of global Greenhouse gases emitted to producing no more than a 20 C warming of the atmosphere. These reports are a living evolving big data collection tracing 30 years of climate science research, observations, and model scenario intercomparisons. They contain more than 200,000 citations over a 30 year period that trace the evolution of the physical basis of climate science, the observed and predicted impact, risk and adaptation to increased greenhouse gases and mitigation approaches, pathways, policies for climate change. Document-topic and topic-term probability distributions are built from the vocabularies of the respective assessment report chapters and citations. Using Microsoft Bing, we retrieve 150,000 citations referenced across chapters and convert those citations to text. Using a word n-gram model based on a heterogeneous set of climate change terminology, lemmatization, noise filtering and stopword elimination, we calculate word frequencies for chapters and citations. Temporal document sets are built based on the assessment period. In addition to topic modeling, we employ cross domain correlation measures. Using the Jensen-Shannon divergence and Pearson correlation we build correlation matrices for chapter and citations topics. The shared vocabulary acts as the bridge between domains resulting in chapter-citation point pairs in space. Pairs are established based on a document-topic probability distribution. Each chapter and citation is associated with a vector of topics and based on the n most probable topics, we establish which chapter-citation pairs are most similar. We will perform posterior inferences based on Hastings -Metropolis simulated annealing MCMC algorithm to infer, from the evolution of topics starting from AR1 to AR4, assertions of topics for AR5 and potentially AR6.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazeli Farsani, Iman; Farzaneh, M. R.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Salehi, M. H.; Faramarzi, M.

2018-04-01

The variability and uncertainty of water resources associated with climate change are critical issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal variability of water resources in the Bazoft watershed, Iran. The analysis was based on changes of blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage for a future period (2010-2099) compared to a historical period (1992-2008). The r-factor, p-factor, R 2, and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients for discharge were 1.02, 0.89, 0.80, and 0.80 for the calibration period and 1.03, 0.76, 0.57, and 0.59 for the validation period, respectively. General circulation models (GCMs) under 18 emission scenarios from the IPCC's Fourth (AR4) and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports were fed into the SWAT model. At the sub-basin level, blue water tended to decrease, while green water flow tended to increase in the future scenario, and green water storage was predicted to continue its historical trend into the future. At the monthly time scale, the 95% prediction uncertainty bands (95PPUs) of blue and green water flows varied widely in the watershed. A large number (18) of climate change scenarios fell within the estimated uncertainty band of the historical period. The large differences among scenarios indicated high levels of uncertainty in the watershed. Our results reveal that the spatial patterns of water resource components and their uncertainties in the context of climate change are notably different between IPCC AR4 and AR5 in the Bazoft watershed. This study provides a strong basis for water supply-demand analyses, and the general analytical framework can be applied to other study areas with similar challenges.

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

PubMed

Nordam, Tor; Dunnebier, Dorien A E; Beegle-Krause, C J; Reed, Mark; Slagstad, Dag

2017-12-01

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

Douglas J. Arent - Deputy Associate Lab Director, Scientific Computing

Science.gov Websites

Coordinating Lead Author for the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of Sciences Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, and also served on the

Assessing modelled spatial distributions of ice water path using satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliasson, S.; Buehler, S. A.; Milz, M.; Eriksson, P.; John, V. O.

2010-05-01

The climate models used in the IPCC AR4 show large differences in monthly mean cloud ice. The most valuable source of information that can be used to potentially constrain the models is global satellite data. For this, the data sets must be long enough to capture the inter-annual variability of Ice Water Path (IWP). PATMOS-x was used together with ISCCP for the annual cycle evaluation in Fig. 7 while ECHAM-5 was used for the correlation with other models in Table 3. A clear distinction between ice categories in satellite retrievals, as desired from a model point of view, is currently impossible. However, long-term satellite data sets may still be used to indicate the climatology of IWP spatial distribution. We evaluated satellite data sets from CloudSat, PATMOS-x, ISCCP, MODIS and MSPPS in terms of monthly mean IWP, to determine which data sets can be used to evaluate the climate models. IWP data from CloudSat cloud profiling radar provides the most advanced data set on clouds. As CloudSat data are too short to evaluate the model data directly, it was mainly used here to evaluate IWP from the other satellite data sets. ISCCP and MSPPS were shown to have comparatively low IWP values. ISCCP shows particularly low values in the tropics, while MSPPS has particularly low values outside the tropics. MODIS and PATMOS-x were in closest agreement with CloudSat in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution, with MODIS being the best of the two. As PATMOS-x extends over more than 25 years and is in fairly close agreement with CloudSat, it was chosen as the reference data set for the model evaluation. In general there are large discrepancies between the individual climate models, and all of the models show problems in reproducing the observed spatial distribution of cloud-ice. Comparisons consistently showed that ECHAM-5 is the GCM from IPCC AR4 closest to satellite observations.

;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

2017-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the "degree of agreement." Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Mirin, A

2007-01-19

We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and oceanmore » circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.« less

Quantifying Uncertainties in N2O Emission Due to N Fertilizer Application in Cultivated Areas

PubMed Central

Philibert, Aurore; Loyce, Chantal; Makowski, David

2012-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO2. In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated N2O emission due to synthetic and organic nitrogen (N) fertilization at 1% of applied N. We investigated the uncertainty on this estimated value, by fitting 13 different models to a published dataset including 985 N2O measurements. These models were characterized by (i) the presence or absence of the explanatory variable “applied N”, (ii) the function relating N2O emission to applied N (exponential or linear function), (iii) fixed or random background (i.e. in the absence of N application) N2O emission and (iv) fixed or random applied N effect. We calculated ranges of uncertainty on N2O emissions from a subset of these models, and compared them with the uncertainty ranges currently used in the IPCC-Tier 1 method. The exponential models outperformed the linear models, and models including one or two random effects outperformed those including fixed effects only. The use of an exponential function rather than a linear function has an important practical consequence: the emission factor is not constant and increases as a function of applied N. Emission factors estimated using the exponential function were lower than 1% when the amount of N applied was below 160 kg N ha−1. Our uncertainty analysis shows that the uncertainty range currently used by the IPCC-Tier 1 method could be reduced. PMID:23226430

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Heat stress-induced effects of photosystem I: an overview of structural and functional responses.

PubMed

Ivanov, Alexander G; Velitchkova, Maya Y; Allakhverdiev, Suleyman I; Huner, Norman P A

2017-09-01

Temperature is one of the main factors controlling the formation, development, and functional performance of the photosynthetic apparatus in all photoautotrophs (green plants, algae, and cyanobacteria) on Earth. The projected climate change scenarios predict increases in air temperature across Earth's biomes ranging from moderate (3-4 °C) to extreme (6-8 °C) by the year 2100 (IPCC in Climate change 2007: The physical science basis: summery for policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 2007; Climate change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC WG3 Fifth Assessment Report 2014). In some areas, especially of the Northern hemisphere, even more extreme warm seasonal temperatures may occur, which possibly will cause significant negative effects on the development, growth, and yield of important agricultural crops. It is well documented that high temperatures can cause direct damages of the photosynthetic apparatus and photosystem II (PSII) is generally considered to be the primary target of heat-induced inactivation of photosynthesis. However, since photosystem I (PSI) is considered to determine the global amount of enthalpy in living systems (Nelson in Biochim Biophys Acta 1807:856-863, 2011; Photosynth Res 116:145-151, 2013), the effects of elevated temperatures on PSI might be of vital importance for regulating the photosynthetic response of all photoautotrophs in the changing environment. In this review, we summarize the experimental data that demonstrate the critical impact of heat-induced alterations on the structure, composition, and functional performance of PSI and their significant implications on photosynthesis under future climate change scenarios.

Forest carbon in North America: annual storage and emissions from British Columbia’s harvest, 1965–2065

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The default international accounting rules estimate the carbon emissions from forest products by assuming all harvest is immediately emitted to the atmosphere. This makes it difficult to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences of different forest management or manufacturing activities that maintain the storage of carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses this issue by allowing other accounting methods. The objective of this paper is to provide a new model for estimating annual stock changes of carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). Results The model, British Columbia Harvested Wood Products version 1 (BC-HWPv1), estimates carbon stocks and fluxes for wood harvested in BC from 1965 to 2065, based on new parameters on local manufacturing, updated and new information for North America on consumption and disposal of wood and paper products, and updated parameters on methane management at landfills in the USA. Based on model results, reporting on emissions as they occur would substantially lower BC’s greenhouse gas inventory in 2010 from 48 Mt CO2 to 26 Mt CO2 because of the long-term forest carbon storage in-use and in the non-degradable material in landfills. In addition, if offset projects created under BC’s protocol reported 100 year cumulative emissions using the BC-HWPv1 the emissions would be lower by about 11%. Conclusions This research showed that the IPCC default methods overestimate the emissions North America wood products. Future IPCC GHG accounting methods could include a lower emissions factor (e.g. 0.52) multiplied by the annual harvest, rather than the current multiplier of 1.0. The simulations demonstrated that the primary opportunities for climate change mitigation are in shifting from burning mill waste to using the wood for longer-lived products. PMID:22828161

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Great Lakes

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural and cultural resources. Although climate change was once believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions of greenhouse gases have significantly contributed to recent...

Protected areas' role in climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Melillo, Jerry M; Lu, Xiaoliang; Kicklighter, David W; Reilly, John M; Cai, Yongxia; Sokolov, Andrei P

2016-03-01

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

Data Sparsity Considerations in Climate Impact Analysis for the Water Sector (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asante, K. O.; Khimsara, P.; Chan, A.

2013-12-01

Scientists and planners are helping governments and communities around the world to prepare for climate change by performing local impact studies and developing adaptation plans. Most studies begin by analyzing global climate models outputs to estimate the magnitude of projected change, assessing vulnerabilities and proposing adaptation measures. In these studies, climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Data Distribution Centre (DDC) are either used directly or downscaled using regional models. Since climate projections cover the entire global, climate change analysis can be performed for any location. However, selection of climate projections for use in historically data sparse regions presents special challenges. Key questions arise about the impact of historical data sparsity on quality of climate projections, spatial consistency of results and suitability for applications such as water resource planning. In this paper, a water-sector climate study conducted in a data-rich setting in California is compared to a similar study conducted a data-sparse setting in Mozambique. The challenges of selecting projections, performing analysis and interpreting the results for climate adaption planning are compared to illustrate the decision process and challenges encountered in these two very different settings.

Interacting effects of multiple stresses on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

Judson G. Isebrands; Richard E. Dickson; Joanne Rebbeck; David F. Karnosky

2000-01-01

Global climate chagnge is a complex and controversial subject, both technically and politically. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" and that "further accumulation of greenhouse gases will commit the earth...

Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century

Treesearch

J. Brown; V.E. Romanovsky

2008-01-01

Recent assessments have considered present-day and future responses of permafrost terrain to climate change; included are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and United Nations Environment Programme assessments (Romanovsky et al., 2007), the on-going National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) annual...

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Understanding observed and simulated historical temperature trends in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C. J.; Duffy, P. B.; Santer, B. D.; Lobell, D. B.; Wigley, T. M.

2006-12-01

In our study, we attempt 1) to improve our understanding of observed historical temperature trends and their underlying causes in the context of regional detection of climate change and 2) to identify possible neglected forcings and errors in the model response to imposed forcings at the origin of inconsistencies between models and observations. From eight different observational datasets, we estimate California-average temperature trends over 1950- 1999 and compare them to trends from a suite of IPCC control simulations of natural internal climate variability. We find that the substantial night-time warming occurring from January to September is inconsistent with model-based estimates of natural internal climate variability, and thus requires one or more external forcing agents to be explained. In contrast, we find that a significant day-time warming occurs only from January to March. Our confidence in these findings is increased because there is no evidence that the models systematically underestimate noise on interannual and decadal timescales. However, we also find that IPCC simulations of the 20th century that include combined anthropogenic and natural forcings are not able to reproduce such a pronounced seasonality of the trends. Our first hypothesis is that the warming of Californian winters over the second half of the twentieth century is associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that are likely to be human-induced. This circulation change is underestimated in the historical simulations, which may explain why the simulated warming of Californian winters is too weak. We also hypothesize that the lack of a detectable observed increase in summertime maximum temperature arises from a cooling associated with large-scale irrigation. This cooling may have, until now, counteracted the warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases and urbanization effects. Omitting to include this forcing in the simulations can result in overestimating the summertime maximum temperature trends. We conduct an empirical study based on observed climate and irrigation changes to evaluate this assumption.

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Vanderbilt, Will; Berrang-Ford, Lea

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.

Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

2017-09-01

While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

Greenhouse gases inventory and carbon balance of two dairy systems obtained from two methane-estimation methods.

PubMed

Cunha, C S; Lopes, N L; Veloso, C M; Jacovine, L A G; Tomich, T R; Pereira, L G R; Marcondes, M I

2016-11-15

The adoption of carbon inventories for dairy farms in tropical countries based on models developed from animals and diets of temperate climates is questionable. Thus, the objectives of this study were to estimate enteric methane (CH4) emissions through the SF6 tracer gas technique and through equations proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 and to calculate the inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from two dairy systems. In addition, the carbon balance of these properties was estimated using enteric CH4 emissions obtained using both methodologies. In trial 1, the CH4 emissions were estimated from seven Holstein dairy cattle categories based on the SF6 tracer gas technique and on IPCC equations. The categories used in the study were prepubertal heifers (n=6); pubertal heifers (n=4); pregnant heifers (n=5); high-producing (n=6); medium-producing (n=5); low-producing (n=4) and dry cows (n=5). Enteric methane emission was higher for the category comprising prepubertal heifers when estimated by the equations proposed by the IPCC Tier 2. However, higher CH4 emissions were estimated by the SF6 technique in the categories including medium- and high-producing cows and dry cows. Pubertal heifers, pregnant heifers, and low-producing cows had equal CH4 emissions as estimated by both methods. In trial 2, two dairy farms were monitored for one year to identify all activities that contributed in any way to GHG emissions. The total emission from Farm 1 was 3.21t CO2e/animal/yr, of which 1.63t corresponded to enteric CH4. Farm 2 emitted 3.18t CO2e/animal/yr, with 1.70t of enteric CH4. IPCC estimations can underestimate CH4 emissions from some categories while overestimate others. However, considering the whole property, these discrepancies are offset and we would submit that the equations suggested by the IPCC properly estimate the total CH4 emission and carbon balance of the properties. Thus, the IPCC equations should be utilized with caution, and the herd composition should be analysed at the property level. When the carbon stock in pasture and other crops was considered, the carbon balance suggested that both farms are sustainable for GHG, by both methods. On the other hand, carbon balance without carbon stock, by both methods, suggests that farms emit more carbon than the system is capable of stock. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2015-01-01

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

ScienceCinema

Stocker, Thomas

2018-05-18

The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.

Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.

2008-12-01

The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the existing federal climate products and services and the needed federal climate products and services which will address these weather thresholds. Just as important, as we work to meet the needs, a robust education and outreach program is essential to take full advantage of new products, services and capabilities. To ascertain what climate products and services currently exist to address weather thresholds relative to surface transportation, what climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and how to bridge the gap between what is available and what is needed, the OFCM surveyed the federal meteorological community. Consistent with the extreme events highlighted in the IPCC report, the OFCM survey categorized the weather thresholds associated with surface transportation into the following extreme event areas: (a) excessive heat, (b) winter precipitation, (c) summer precipitation, (d) high winds, and (e) flooding and coastal inundation. The survey results, the gap analysis, as well as OFCM's planned, follow-on activities with additional categories (i.e., in addition to surface transportation) and weather thresholds will be shared with meeting participants. 1 The OFCM is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the mission to ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather and climate requirements, products, services, and supporting research among the federal agencies. 2 http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-final-ch1.pdf 3 http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-3-3.pdf

Climate Change: Issues in the Science and Its Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

7 3. The State of the Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4...together with a review of the current state of the climate itself that establishes the importance of advancing our understanding. In the interests...common data stewardship and sharing standards. 3. The  State   of   the   Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4  We assess the state of the climate against the

Climate change in the Seychelles: implications for water and coral reefs.

PubMed

Payet, Rolph; Agricole, Wills

2006-06-01

The Seychelles is a small island state in the western Indian Ocean that is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This vulnerability led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 to express concern over the potential economic and social consequences that may be faced by small island states. Small island states should be prepared to adapt to such changes, especially in view of their dependence on natural resources, such as water and coral reefs, to meet basic human welfare needs. Analysis of long-term data for precipitation, air temperature, and sea-surface temperature indicated that changes are already observable in the Seychelles. The increase in dry spells that resulted in drought conditions in 1999 and the 1998 mass coral bleaching are indicative of the events that are likely to occur under future climate change. Pre-IPCC Third Assessment Report scenarios and the new SRES scenarios are compared for changes in precipitation and air surface temperature for the Seychelles. These intercomparisons indicate that the IS92 scenarios project a much warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles than do the SRES scenarios. However, a wetter climate does not imply readily available water, but rather longer dry spells with more intense precipitation events. These observations will likely place enormous pressures on water-resources management in the Seychelles. Similarly, sea-surface temperature increases predicted by the HADCM3 model will likely trigger repeated coral-bleaching episodes, with possible coral extinctions within the Seychelles region by 2040. The cover of many coral reefs around the Seychelles have already changed, and the protection of coral-resilient areas is a critical adaptive option.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

PubMed

Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

2013-08-01

The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of methane emissions on the key categories of waste emission sources and to comparing results with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines.

Estimation of CO2 emissions from waste incinerators: Comparison of three methods.

PubMed

Lee, Hyeyoung; Yi, Seung-Muk; Holsen, Thomas M; Seo, Yong-Seok; Choi, Eunhwa

2018-03-01

Climate-relevant CO 2 emissions from waste incineration were compared using three methods: making use of CO 2 concentration data, converting O 2 concentration and waste characteristic data, and using a mass balance method following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. For the first two methods, CO 2 and O 2 concentrations were measured continuously from 24 to 86 days. The O 2 conversion method in comparison to the direct CO 2 measurement method had a 4.8% mean difference in daily CO 2 emissions for four incinerators where analyzed waste composition data were available. However, the IPCC method had a higher difference of 13% relative to the direct CO 2 measurement method. For three incinerators using designed values for waste composition, the O 2 conversion and IPCC methods in comparison to the direct CO 2 measurement method had mean differences of 7.5% and 89%, respectively. Therefore, the use of O 2 concentration data measured for monitoring air pollutant emissions is an effective method for estimating CO 2 emissions resulting from waste incineration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

Fuel moisture content estimation: a land-surface modelling approach applied to African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Spessa, A.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Despite the importance of fire to the global climate system, in terms of emissions from biomass burning, ecosystem structure and function, and changes to surface albedo, current land-surface models do not adequately estimate key variables affecting fire ignition and propagation. Fuel moisture content (FMC) is considered one of the most important of these variables (Chuvieco et al., 2004). Biophysical models, with appropriate plant functional type parameterisations, are the most viable option to adequately predict FMC over continental scales at high temporal resolution. However, the complexity of plant-water interactions, and the variability associated with short-term climate changes, means it is one of the most difficult fire variables to quantify and predict. Our work attempts to resolve this issue using a combination of satellite data and biophysical modelling applied to Africa. The approach we take is to represent live FMC as a surface dryness index; expressed as the ratio between the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land-surface temperature (LST). It has been argued in previous studies (Sandholt et al., 2002; Snyder et al., 2006), that this ratio displays a statistically stronger correlation to FMC than either of the variables, considered separately. In this study, simulated FMC is constrained through the assimilation of remotely sensed LST and NDVI data into the land-surface model JULES (Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator). Previous modelling studies of fire activity in Africa savannas, such as Lehsten et al. (2008), have reported significant levels of uncertainty associated with the simulations. This uncertainty is important because African savannas are among some of the most frequently burnt ecosystems and are a major source of greenhouse trace gases and aerosol emissions (Scholes et al., 1996). Furthermore, regional climate model studies indicate that many parts of the African savannas will experience drier and warmer conditions in future (IPCC 2007). The simulation of realistic fire disturbance regimes with biophysical and biogeochemical models is a prerequisite for reducing the uncertainty of the African carbon cycle, and the feedbacks associated with this cycle and the global climate system. Using multi-temporal modelling analysis techniques, we present preliminary results that provide a more robust estimation of live FMC. References Chuvieco, E., Aguado, I. and Dimitrakopoulos, A. P. (2004) Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 34(11): 2284-2293. IPCC (2007) 'Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)].' IPCC, (Geneva, Switzerland). Lehsten, V., Tansey, K. J., Balzter, H, Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Weber, U., Smith, B., and Arneth, A. (2008). Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires. Accepted Biogeosciences. Sandholt, I., Rasmussen, K. & Andersen, J. (2002) A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status. Remote Sensing of Environment 79(2-3): 213-224. Scholes, R. J., Ward, D. E. and Justice, C. O. (1996) Emissions of trace gases and aerosol particles due to vegetation burning in southern hemisphere Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 101(D19): 23677-23682. Snyder, R. L., Spano, D., Duce, P., Baldocchi, D., Xu, L. K. & Kyaw, T. P. U. (2006) A fuel dryness index for grassland fire-danger assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 139(1-2): 1-11.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

2005-03-01

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and codes have been accordingly modified.This relevant numerical help coming from the computer science can now allow scientists to devote larger attention in the efforts of understanding the deep mechanisms of such complex processes.

An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha Prasad

2013-01-01

The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Estimating changes in carbon burial on the western US coastal shelf due to anthropogenic influences on river exports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauer, M.; Bergamaschi, B. A.; Smith, R. A.; Zhu, Z.; Shih, J.

2012-12-01

Flux of nutrients and sediments to the coastal zone varies in response to land-use modification, reservoir construction, management action and population change. It is anticipated that future changes in the flux of these components in response to climate and terrestrial processes will affect carbon (C) burial in the coastal ocean. Coastal oceans store appreciable amounts of C as a result of river inflows: coastal primary production is enhanced by inputs of terrestrially derived nutrients, and C burial is controlled by terrestrial sediment supply. Assessing the capacity and changes to coastal C preservation, therefore, requires estimation of (1) riverine nutrient and sediment delivery to the coastal ocean, and (2) the enhanced C production and sediment deposition in the coastal ocean. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has embarked on a congressionally-mandated nationwide effort to assess the future effects of climate and land use and land cover change (LULC) on C storage. The USGS has developed alternative scenarios for changes in US LULC from 2006 to 2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate, economic, and demographic scenarios (Sohl et al 2012). These spatially-detailed scenarios provide inputs to national-scale SPARROW watershed models of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, total organic C (TOC), and suspended sediment (Smith et al 1997; Schwarz et al, 2006). The watershed models, in turn, provide inputs of nutrients, TOC, and sediment to a coupled model of coastal transport, production, and sedimentation. This coastal modelling component includes particulate C sedimentation and burial estimated as functions of bathymetry and pycnocline depth (Armstrong, et al 2002; Dunne et al 2007). River borne fluxes of TOC to US Pacific coastal waters under baseline conditions (1992) were 1.59 TgC/yr. Projected future (2050) fluxes under a regionally-downscaled LULC scenario aligned with the IPCC A2 scenario were similar (1.61TgC/yr). C storage in coastal environments as influenced by terrestrial processes represents a significant sink for C in comparison to terrestrial biomass C sinks, and is significantly sensitive to changes in LULC and population. The estimated rate of storage in Pacific coastal waters was 2.0 TgC/yr under baseline conditions. Projection of land use and population changes through 2050 associated with the IPCC A2 scenario had a small effect on coastal C storage processes, reducing C storage by 4% over baseline conditions. Results of this modeling exercise indicate that the size of the C sink associated with terrestrial exports is substantial and sensitive to anthropogenic activity. Thus, future assessments of how terrestrial policy and management actions may alter C storage should include an evaluation of the effects prospective alterations in terrestrial processes have on coastal C storage.

Causes and implications of the growing divergence between climate model simulations and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curry, Judith

2014-03-01

For the past 15+ years, there has been no increase in global average surface temperature, which has been referred to as a 'hiatus' in global warming. By contrast, estimates of expected warming in the first several decades of 21st century made by the IPCC AR4 were 0.2C/decade. This talk summarizes the recent CMIP5 climate model simulation results and comparisons with observational data. The most recent climate model simulations used in the AR5 indicate that the warming stagnation since 1998 is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level. Potential causes for the model-observation discrepancies are discussed. A particular focus of the talk is the role of multi-decadal natural internal variability on the climate variability of the 20th and early 21st centuries. The ``stadium wave'' climate signal is described, which propagates across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of ocean, ice, and atmospheric circulation regimes that self-organize into a collective tempo. The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. Implications of the hiatus are discussed in context of climate model sensitivity to CO2 forcing and attribution of the warming that was observed in the last quarter of the 20th century.

Vulnerability of riparian obligate species to the interactive effect of fire, climate and hydrological change

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Rachel Loehman; Lisa Holsinger; Deborah Finch

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have multiple direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems in the interior western U.S. (Christensen et al., 2007; IPCC 2013). Global climate predictions for the Southwest include higher temperatures, more variable rainfall, and more drought periods, which will likely exacerbate the ongoing issues relating to wildfire and water allocation in...

77 FR 52293 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Mimulus...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-29

... review. Climate Change Information Provided in the Petition The petitioner states that the western United States will likely suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change, which will affect montane... conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007, p. 52) and RMNP (2007a, p. 6...

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

75 FR 35121 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

...--bio-energy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy--which... expert review of the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) of..._procedures.htm ). In April 2008, the IPCC approved the development of a Special Report on Renewable Energy...

Modeling the Impacts of Global Climate and Regional Land Use Change on Regional Climate, Air Quality and Public Health in the New York Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. E.; Knowlton, K. M.; Kinney, P. L.

2002-12-01

There is an imminent need to downscale the global climate models used by international consortiums like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict the future regional impacts of climate change. To meet this need, a "place-based" climate model that makes specific regional projections about future environmental conditions local inhabitants could face is being created by the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University, in collaboration with other researchers and universities, for New York City and the 31 surrounding counties. This presentation describes the design and initial results of this modeling study, aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change and regional land use change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States in order to project the associated public health impacts in the region. Heat waves and elevated concentrations of ozone and fine particles are significant current public health stressors in the New York metropolitan area. The New York Climate and Health Project is linking human dimension and natural sciences models to assess the potential for future public health impacts from heat stress and air quality, and yield improved tools for assessing climate change impacts. The model will be applied to the NY metropolitan east coast region. The following questions will be addressed: 1. What changes in the frequency and severity of extreme heat events are likely to occur over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and land cover (LU/LC) and climate change in the region? 2. How might the frequency and severity of episodic concentrations of ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter smaller than 2.5 æm in diameter (PM2.5) change over the next 80 years due to a range of possible scenarios of land use and climate change in the metropolitan region? 3. What is the range of possible human health impacts of these changes in the region? 4. How might projected future human exposures and responses to heat stress and air quality differ as a function of socio-economic status and race/ethnicity across the region? The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological models; the SLEUTH land use model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) models for simulating regional air quality; and exposure-risk coefficients for assessing population health impacts based on exposure to extreme heat, fine particulates (PM2.5) and ozone. Two different IPCC global emission scenarios and two different regional land use growth scenarios are considered in the simulations, spanning a range of possible futures. In addition to base simulations for selected time periods in the decade 1990 - 2000, the integrated model is used to simulate future scenarios in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Predictions from both the meteorological models and the air quality models are compared against available observations for the simulations in the 1990s to establish baseline model performance. A series of sensitivity tests will address whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change, changes in regional land use, or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone and particulate matter concentrations.

The Roadmap to Climate Stability Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Accounting Protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.

2016-12-01

The Climate Stabilization Council recognizes the severe impact consequences of a rapidly warming climate and the challenging mitigation requirements of reaching the COP21 aspirational goal of +1.5°C. To address this challenge, we have used the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which presents new methods for projecting increases in average global temperature and new metrics to update global climate accounting protocols. The updated protocols allow us to assess the full spectrum of climate mitigation projects available and identify the ability of specific projects to achieve various climate warming targets at different points in time. This assessment demonstrates the need to continue focusing on reducing and removing the major sources of overall excess heat linked to CO2, methane, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone. These findings also highlight the importance of solar radiation management (SRM) and earth radiation management (ERM) to achieve climate stabilization in the near-term. By integrating advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) into the protocols, unintended environmental or human health impact trade-offs that may be associated with deployment of specific mitigation options can be identified. These protocols have also been introduced for standardization to the international ISO 14000 process. We conclude by describing the Climate Stabilization Council's role in establishing a platform for the scientific research, evaluation, and implementation of the identified climate mitigation projects.

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. Themore » ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.« less

Estimating the economic impact of climate change on cardiovascular diseases--evidence from Taiwan.

PubMed

Liao, Shu-Yi; Tseng, Wei-Chun; Chen, Pin-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung; Wu, Wei-Min

2010-12-01

The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change.

Estimating the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Diseases—Evidence from Taiwan

PubMed Central

Liao, Shu-Yi; Tseng, Wei-Chun; Chen, Pin-Yu; Chen, Chi-Chung; Wu, Wei-Min

2010-01-01

The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change. PMID:21318006

Interactive Photochemistry in Earth System Models to Assess Uncertainty in Ozone and Greenhouse Gases. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; Nicolau, Alex

Atmospheric chemistry controls the abundances and hence climate forcing of important greenhouse gases including N 2O, CH 4, HFCs, CFCs, and O 3. Attributing climate change to human activities requires, at a minimum, accurate models of the chemistry and circulation of the atmosphere that relate emissions to abundances. This DOE-funded research provided realistic, yet computationally optimized and affordable, photochemical modules to the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that augment the CESM capability to explore the uncertainty in future stratospheric-tropospheric ozone, stratospheric circulation, and thus the lifetimes of chemically controlled greenhouse gases from climate simulations. To this end, we have successfullymore » implemented Fast-J (radiation algorithm determining key chemical photolysis rates) and Linoz v3.0 (linearized photochemistry for interactive O 3, N 2O, NO y and CH 4) packages in LLNL-CESM and for the first time demonstrated how change in O2 photolysis rate within its uncertainty range can significantly impact on the stratospheric climate and ozone abundances. From the UCI side, this proposal also helped LLNL develop a CAM-Superfast Chemistry model that was implemented for the IPCC AR5 and contributed chemical-climate simulations to CMIP5.« less

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, L.; Hall, F.G.; Collatz, G.J.; Tucker, C.J.; Sellers, P.J.; Kumar, A.

2008-01-01

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Climate change impact on the management of water resources in the Seine River basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorchies, David; Thirel, Guillaume; Chauveau, Mathilde; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Perrin, Charles; Dehay, Florine

2013-04-01

It is today commonly accepted that adaptation strategies will be needed to cope with the hydrological consequences of projected climate change. The main objective of the IWRM-Net Climaware project is to design adaptation strategies for various socio-economic sectors and evaluate their relevance at the European scale. Within the project, the Seine case study focuses on dam management. The Seine River basin at Paris (43800km²) shows major socio-economic stakes in France. Due to its important and growing demography, the number of industries depending on water resources or located on the river sides, and the developed agricultural sector, the consequences of droughts and floods may be dramatic. To mitigate the extreme hydrological events, a system of four large multi-purpose reservoirs was built in the upstream part of the basin between 1949 and 1990. The IPCC reports indicate modifications of the climate conditions in northern France in the future. An increase of mean temperature is very likely, and the rainfall patterns could be modified: the uncertainty on future trends is still high, but summer periods could experience lower quantities of rainfall. Anticipating these changes are crucial: will the present reservoirs system be adapted to these conditions? Here we propose to evaluate the capacity of the Seine River reservoirs to withstand future projected climate conditions using the current management rules. For this study a modeling chain was designed. We used two hydrological models: GR4J, a lumped model used as a benchmark, and TGR, a semi-distributed model. TGR was tuned to explicitly account for reservoir management rules. Seven climatic models forced by the moderate A1B IPCC scenario and downscaled using a weather-type method (DSCLIM, Pagé et al., 2009), were used. A quantile-quantile type method was applied to correct bias in climate simulations. A model to mimic the way reservoirs are managed was also developed. The evolution of low flows, high flows and annual flows were assessed under natural condition (i.e. without the inclusion of the reservoirs in the models). Then, the impact of reservoirs and their management were accounted for in the modeling chain. Results will be discussed relatively to future hydro-climatic conditions and current mitigation objectives within the basin. Reference: Pagé, C., L. Terray et J. Boé, 2009: dsclim: A software package to downscale climate scenarios at regional scale using a weather-typing based statistical methodology. Technical Report TR/CMGC/09/21, SUC au CERFACS, URA CERFACS/CNRS No1875, Toulouse, France. Link : http://www.cerfacs.fr/~page/dsclim/dsclim_doc-latest.pdf

Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

2015-01-01

Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) habitat models to evaluate the effects of potential climate-induced habitat change. Under the 2050 IPCC A1B scenario, 11.6% of currently identified nesting habitat was lost, and 0.002% of new potential habitat was gained, with 4% of summer habitat lost and 0.039% gained. Our results demonstrate the successful ability of remote sensing based sagebrush components, when coupled with precipitation, to forecast future component response using IPCC precipitation scenarios. Our approach also enables future quantification of greater sage-grouse habitat under different precipitation scenarios, and provides additional capability to identify regional precipitation influence on sagebrush component response.

Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

PubMed Central

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078–2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K−1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day. PMID:24116022

Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

2013-01-01

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etminan, M.; Myhre, G.; Highwood, E. J.; Shine, K. P.

2016-12-01

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750-2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m-2 to 0.61 W m-2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750-2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, F.; Frieler, K.; Warszawski, L.; Lange, S.; Schewe, J.; Reyer, C.; Ostberg, S.; Piontek, F.; Betts, R. A.; Burke, E.; Ciais, P.; Deryng, D.; Ebi, K. L.; Emanuel, K.; Elliott, J. W.; Galbraith, E. D.; Gosling, S.; Hickler, T.; Hinkel, J.; Jones, C.; Krysanova, V.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mouratiadou, I.; Popp, A.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Eddy, T.; Hattermann, F.; Huber, V.; Mengel, M.; Stevanovic, M.; Kirsten, T.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Denvil, S.; Halladay, K.; Suzuki, T.; Lotze, H. K.

2016-12-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming - The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang

2017-04-01

In Paris, France, December 2015 the Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the IPCC to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016 the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the model simulations planned within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to address the request by providing tailored cross-sectoral consistent impacts projections. The protocol is designed to allow for 1) a separation of the impacts of the historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations), 2) a quantification of the effects of an additional warming to 1.5°C including a potential overshoot and long term effects up to 2300 in comparison to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation scenario RCP6.0) keeping socio-economic conditions fixed at year 2005 levels, and 3) an assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for parallel changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle of the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to reach RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. To provide the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and an analysis of cross-sectoral interactions potentially damping or amplifying sectoral impacts the protocol is designed to provide consistent impacts projections across a range of impact models from different sectors (global and regional hydrological models, global gridded crop models, global vegetation models, regional forestry models, global and regional marine ecosystem and fisheries models, global and regional coastal infrastructure models, energy models, health models, and agro-economic models).

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

1997-01-01

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over homogeneous regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patwardhan, Savita; Kulkarni, Ashwini; Rao, K. Koteswara

2018-01-01

The impact of climate change on the characteristics of seasonal maximum and minimum temperature and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall is assessed over five homogeneous regions of India using a high-resolution regional climate model. Providing REgional Climate for Climate Studies (PRECIS) is developed at Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK. The model simulations are carried out over South Asian domain for the continuous period of 1961-2098 at 50-km horizontal resolution. Here, three simulations from a 17-member perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) produced using HadCM3 under the Quantifying Model Uncertainties in Model Predictions (QUMP) project of Hadley Centre, Met. Office, UK, have been used as lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) for the 138-year simulations of the regional climate model under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The projections indicate the increase in the summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall over all the homogeneous regions (15 to 19%) except peninsular India (around 5%). There may be marginal change in the frequency of medium and heavy rainfall events (>20 mm) towards the end of the present century. The analysis over five homogeneous regions indicates that the mean maximum surface air temperatures for the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) as well as the mean minimum surface air temperature for winter season (January-February) may be warmer by around 4 °C towards the end of the twenty-first century.

Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam

2011-01-01

Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these…

Sequestration of carbon in harvested wood products for the United States

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog

2008-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidelines for countries to report greenhouse gas removals by sinks and emissions from sources. These guidelines allow use of several accounting approaches when reporting the contribution of harvested wood products (HWP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Using extensions of...

Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

2015-05-01

Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the relative abundance and distribution of the studied species forced by changes in the regionalised SST projected by the NCAR model under the A2 emission scenario. The simulations predicted a slight decline of 6% (17 kg/1000 hooks) and 7% (3.8 ton/100 m3) for swordfish and common sardine, respectively, in the spatial mean of the potential relative abundance (CPUE) by 2065.

Climate change studies and the human sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the policy framework of climate change adaptation (CCA). Three main innovations are proposed with respect to the current state of the art: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing risk, (2) to go beyond the estimation direct tangible costs, and (3) to provide an operational solution for decision support to assess risks, impacts and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, compatible with both the DRR and the CCA literatures. As stated above, the proposed framework is the inclusion of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacities) in the process of translating risk into a comprehensive cost matrix considering not only direct tangible costs (damages), but also the three other components deriving from the combination of tangible/intangible and direct/indirect costs. The proposed KIRAF approach is thus expected to provide: 1) an operational basis for multidisciplinary integration; 2) a flexible reference to deal with heterogeneous case studies and potentially various types of hazards; and 3) a means to support the assessment of alternative risk prevention measures including consideration of social and cultural dimensions.

Test of High-resolution Global and Regional Climate Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Kjellström, Erik; Raj, Jerry; Bangalath, Hamza; Osipov, Sergey

2014-05-01

In scope of CORDEX project we have simulated the past (1975-2005) and future (2006-2050) climates using the GFDL global high-resolution atmospheric model (HIRAM) and the Rossby Center nested regional model RCA4 for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Both global and nested runs were performed with roughly the same spatial resolution of 25 km in latitude and longitude, and were driven by the 2°x2.5°-resolution fields from GFDL ESM2M IPCC AR5 runs. The global HIRAM simulations could naturally account for interaction of regional processes with the larger-scale circulation features like Indian Summer Monsoon, which is lacking from regional model setup. Therefore in this study we specifically address the consistency of "global" and "regional" downscalings. The performance of RCA4, HIRAM, and ESM2M is tested based on mean, extreme, trends, seasonal and inter-annual variability of surface temperature, precipitation, and winds. The impact of climate change on dust storm activity, extreme precipitation and water resources is specifically addressed. We found that the global and regional climate projections appear to be quite consistent for the modeled period and differ more significantly from ESM2M than between each other.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

2013-01-01

The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

Investigation of polar mesocyclones in Arctic Ocean using COSMO-CLM and WRF numerical models and remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Verezemskaya, Polina; Baranyuk, Anastasia; Zabolotskikh, Elizaveta; Repina, Irina

2015-04-01

Polar lows (PL), high latitude marine mesoscale cyclones, are an enigmatic atmospheric phenomenon, which could result in windstorm damage of shipping and infrastructure in high latitudes. Because of their small spatial scales, short life times and their tendency to develop in remote data sparse regions (Zahn, Strorch, 2008), our knowledge of their behavior and climatology lags behind that of synoptic-scale cyclones. In case of continuing global warming (IPCC, 2013) and prospects of the intensification of economic activity and marine traffic in Arctic region, the problem of relevant simulation of this phenomenon by numerical models of the atmosphere, which could be used for weather and climate prediction, is especially important. The focus of this paper is researching the ability to simulate polar lows by two modern nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical models, driven by realistic lateral boundary conditions from ERA-Interim reanalysis: regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Böhm et. al., 2009) and weather prediction and research model (WRF). Fields of wind, pressure and cloudiness, simulated by models, were compared with remote sensing data and ground meteorological observations for several cases, when polar lows were observed, in Norwegian, Kara and Laptev seas. Several types of satellite data were used: atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water content and surface wind fields were resampled by examining AMSR-E and AMSR-2 microwave radiometer data (MODIS Aqua, GCOM-W1), and wind fields were additionally extracted from QuickSCAT scatterometer. Infrared and visible pictures of cloud cover were obtained from MODIS (Aqua). Completed comparison shown that COSMO-CLM and WRF models could successfully reproduce evolution of polar lows and their most important characteristics such as size and wind speed in short experiments with WRF model and longer (up to half-year) experiments with COSMO-CLM model. Improvement of the quality of polar lows reproduction by these models in relation to source reanalysis fields were investigated. References: 1. Böhm U. et al. CLM - the climate version of LM: Brief description and long-term applications [Journal] // COSMO Newsletter. - 2006. - Vol. 6. 2. IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013 (AR5) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 3. Zahn, M., and H. von Storch (2008), A long-term climatology of North Atlantic polar lows, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702

Taking climate change into estimation of long-term flood risks: A case of Devils Lake of North Dakota, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kharel, G.; Kirilenko, A.

2014-12-01

Terminal lakes are heavily impacted by regional changes in climate. Devils Lake (DL) is a terminal lake located in the northeastern North Dakota of the US. Since 1990, following a shift in regional precipitation pattern, DL has encountered a 10 m water level rise, with over 400% increase in surface area and 600% increase in water volume, costing over $1.5 billion in mitigation. Currently, the lake is <1.5 m from spillover level to the nearby Sheyenne River with potential negative consequences for downstream water quality and flooding. Recently, the artificial outlets have been constructed and operated to divert DL water to the Sheyenne River amid legal and political pressure. Outlet construction however did not take into consideration possible changes in local climate. We modeled the DL basin ( 9,800 km2) hydrology using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and estimated future water levels of DL for different outlet scenarios under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES scenarios (A1B, B1 & A2) for 2020s and 2050s. We evaluated model performance by comparing SWAT simulated daily streamflow outputs against the observed streamflow data recorded at 6 USGS water gauge locations within the basin. Future climate conditions in the region were estimated by combining historical weather data (1981-2010), 15 CMIP3 General Circulation Model projections from the IPCC data center, and stochastic downscaling methodology (LARS-WG). Our results indicate significant likelihood (7.3% ̶ 20.0%) of uncontrolled DL water overspill in the next few decades in the absence of outlets, with some members of GCM integration ensemble carrying over 85.0% and 95.0% overspill probability for 2020s and 2050s respectively. However, full-capacity outlets show radical reduction in overspill probability to partially mitigate the flooding problem by decreasing the average lake level by approximately 1.9 m and 1.5 m in 2020s and 2050s. Moreover, had there been outlet operation from the beginning of the flood episode since 1990s, not only the future overspill risks but also the current flooding extent would have been reduced significantly (Fig. 1).

Process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struthers, H.; Ekman, A. M.; Nilsson, E. D.

2011-12-01

Sea salt, an important natural aerosol, is generated by bubbles bursting at the surface of the ocean. Sea salt aerosol contributes significantly to the global aerosol burden and radiative budget and are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in remote marine areas (Monahan et al., 1986). Consequently, changes in marine aerosol abundance is expected to impact on climate forcing. Estimates of the atmospheric burden of sea salt aerosol mass derived from chemical transport and global climate models vary greatly both in the global total and the spatial distribution (Texor et al. 2006). This large uncertainty in the sea salt aerosol distribution in turn contributes to the large uncertainty in the current estimates of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing (IPCC, 2007). To correctly attribute anthropogenic climate change and to veraciously project future climate, natural aerosols including sea salt must be understood and accurately modelled. In addition, the physical processes that determine the sea salt aerosol concentration are susceptible to modification due to climate change (Carslaw et al., 2010) which means there is the potential for feedbacks within the climate/aerosol system. Given the large uncertainties in sea salt aerosol modelling, there is an urgent need to evaluate the process description of sea salt aerosols in global models. An extremely valuable source of data for model evaluation is the long term measurements of PM10 sea salt aerosol mass available from a number of remote marine observation sites around the globe (including the GAW network). Sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations depend strongly on the surface exchange (emission and deposition) as well as entrainment or detrainment to the free troposphere. This suggests that the key parameters to consider in any analysis include the sea surface water temperature, wind speed, precipitation rate and the atmospheric stability. In this study, the sea salt aerosol observations are analysed to quantify the key sensitivities of the processes connecting the physical drivers of sea salt aerosol to the mass tendency. The analysis employs a semi-empirical model based on the time-tendency of the aerosol mass. This approach of focusing on the time-tendency of the sea salt aerosol concentration provides a framework for the process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations in global models. The same analysis methodology can be applied to output from global models. A process of comparing the sensitivity parameters derived from observations and models will reveal model inadequacies and thus guide model improvements. Carslaw, K. S., Boucher, O., Spracklen, D. V., Mann G. W., Rae, J. G. L, Woodward, S., Kulmala, M. (2010). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1701-1737 IPCC (2007). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Monahan, E. C., Spiel, D. E., Davidson, K. L. (1986) Oceanic Whitecaps ed. Monahan E. C. & MacNiochaill, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass. Texor, C., et al. (2006) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1777-1813.

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Xie, Jun; Ge, Qian

2017-02-01

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7-10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Kevin E. Trenberth Receives 2013 Climate Communication Prize: Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2014-01-01

I am delighted to be recognized with this prize. I want to first thank AGU and the prize committee and, especially, Nature's Own for establishing this prize in a field that has become contentious and highly political. It did not used to be this way. Following the media frenzy with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, there was hope at the 2009 Conference of Parties meeting in Copenhagen that an international framework agreement on climate change might be achieved. It was not to be. Planned actions to address issues of climate change were undermined by huge funding of misinformation by vested interests. It was not helped by so-called "climategate" in which many emails illegally hacked from a computer server at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom were released, cherry picked, distorted, and misused by climate change deniers. Minor errors in the IPCC report were blown out of all proportion and ineffectively addressed. I was caught up in all this, and one of my many emails went viral: the "travesty" quote in which I bemoaned the inability to close the global energy balance associated with short-term climate variability but which was misinterpreted as saying there was no global warming. These examples highlight failures of communication.

Contesting the 'national interest' and maintaining 'our lifestyle': a discursive analysis of political rhetoric around climate change.

PubMed

Kurz, Tim; Augoustinos, Martha; Crabb, Shona

2010-09-01

The release of the fourth United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in February 2007 prompted a flood of responses from political leaders around the globe. Perhaps nowhere was this more apparent than in Australia, where its release coincided with the first sitting week of the Australian Parliament, in an election year. The current study involves a discursive analysis of climate change rhetoric produced by politicians from the major Australian political parties in the period following the release of the IPCC leading up to the national election. Data include both transcripts of parliamentary debate and statements directly broadcast in the media. The analysis focuses on the various ways in which the issue of climate change was invoked and rhetorically managed by each of the two parties in the lead up to the election. In particular, it focuses on the ways in which appeals to the 'national interest' and 'lifestyle maintenance', both regular features of political rhetoric, were mobilized by both parties to discursively manage their positions on the climate change issue. Implications of the ways in which such appeals were constructed are discussed in relation to the discursive limits of the ways in which the issue of climate change is constructed in public debate.

Global air quality and climate.

PubMed

Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

2012-10-07

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Characteristics and Scenarios Projection of Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hao, Zhenchun; Ju, Qin; Jiang, Weijuan; Zhu, Changjun

2013-01-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) presents twenty-two global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we evaluate the ability of 22 GCMs to reproduce temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by comparing with ground observations for 1961~1900. The results suggest that all the GCMs underestimate surface air temperature and most models overestimate precipitation in most regions on the Tibetan Plateau. Only a few models (each 5 models for precipitation and temperature) appear roughly consistent with the observations in annual temperature and precipitation variations. Comparatively, GFCM21 and CGMR are able to better reproduce the observed annual temperature and precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau. Although the scenarios predicted by the GCMs vary greatly, all the models predict consistently increasing trends in temperature and precipitation in most regions in the Tibetan Plateau in the next 90 years. The results suggest that the temperature and precipitation will both increase in all three periods under different scenarios, with scenario A1 increasing the most and scenario A1B increasing the least. PMID:23970827

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

PubMed

Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

2010-10-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

2010-01-01

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) global ocean retrospective analysis. Moreover, the resolution of our regional domain ( 10 km horizontal grid spacing) is comparable to that of current-generation IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global climate models and hence is expected to lead to better representation of these processes in IPCC-class global climate models.

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Investigating the Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Quality to Climate Change and Urbanization in 20 U.S. Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. E.; Weaver, C. P.; Butcher, J.; Parker, A.

2011-12-01

Watershed modeling was conducted in 20 large (15,000-60,000 km2), U.S. watersheds to address gaps in our knowledge of the sensitivity of U.S. streamflow, nutrient (N and P) and sediment loading to potential future climate change, and methodological challenges associated with integrating existing tools (e.g., climate models, watershed models) and datasets to address these questions. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically downscaled (50x50 km2) output from four of the GCMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report for the period 2041-2070 archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To explore the potential interaction of climate change and urbanization, model simulations also include urban and residential development scenarios for each of the 20 study watersheds. Urban and residential development scenarios were acquired from EPA's national-scale Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Watershed modeling was conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Here we present a summary of results for 5 of the study watersheds; the Minnesota River, the Susquehanna River, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint, the Salt/Verde/San Pedro, and the Willamette River Basins. This set of results provide an overview of the response to climate change in different regions of the U.S., the different sensitivities of different streamflow and water quality endpoints, and illustrate a number of methodological issues including the sensitivities and uncertainties associated with use of different watershed models, approaches for downscaling climate change projections, and interaction between climate change and other forcing factors, specifically urbanization and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Treesearch

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

2018-06-01

This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Health Impacts of Air Pollution Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinney, P. L.; Knowlton, K.; Rosenthal, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

2003-12-01

Outdoor air pollution remains a serious public health problem in cities throughout the world. In the US, despite considerable progress in reducing emissions over the past 30 years, as many as 50,000 premature deaths each year have been attributed to airborne particulate matter alone. Tropospheric ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality and hospitalization rates, and with a variety of related respiratory problems. Weather plays an important role in the transport and transformation of air pollution. In particular, a warming climate is likely to promote the atmospheric reactions that are responsible for ozone and secondary aerosol production, as well as increasing emissions of many of their volatile precursors. Increasingly, efforts to address urban air pollution problems throughout the world will be complicated by trends and variability in climate. The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) is developing and applying tools for integrated assessment of health impacts from air pollution and heat associated with climate and land-use changes in the New York City metropolitan region. Global climate change is modeled over the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GCM). Meteorological fields are downscaled to a 36 km grid over the eastern US using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model. MM5 results are then used as input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality, with emissions based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). To date, simulations have been performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2050s. An evaluation of the present-day climate and air quality predictions indicates that the modeling system largely captures the observed climate-ozone system. Analysis of future-year predictions shows an increase in temperature and humidity as well as mean and extreme ozone concentrations under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. To address public health impacts, a risk assessment framework is used to estimate ozone-related mortality in the region, with a focus on comparing health impact estimates for the 1990s versus the 2050s. This endpoint represents a potentially appreciable public health impact resulting from climate change-induced alterations in regional air quality profiles. Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature describing ozone-mortality relationships are used to estimate numbers of regional deaths in a typical 1990s summer and a typical 2050s summer. Preliminary analysis of future-year ozone-related mortality suggests a subtle increase in the number of summer ozone-related deaths in the New York region in the 2050s as compared to the 1990s. A parallel evaluation of heat-related mortality in a typical summer of the 2050s suggests a greater relative increase as compared to the 1990s, with a doubling to tripling of regional summer heat deaths possible by the 2050s.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Chou, Ming-Dah

1993-01-01

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

No more summaries for wonks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Richard

2015-04-01

IPCC assessments present an unparalleled opportunity for climate science to speak directly to power. Re-thinking the summaries written for policymakers would enable scientists to communicate far more effectively with political leaders and the public.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

The impact of SciDAC on US climate change research and the IPCCAR4

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael

2005-07-08

SciDAC has invested heavily in climate change research. We offer a candid opinion as to the impact of the DOE laboratories' SciDAC projects on the upcoming Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a result of the direct importance of climate change to society, climate change research is highly coordinated at the international level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is charged with providing regular reports on the state of climate change research to government policymakers. These reports are the product of thousands of scientists efforts. A series of reviews involving both scientists and policymakersmore » make them among the most reviewed documents produced in any scientific field. The high profile of these reports acts a driver to many researchers in the climate sciences. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is scheduled to be released in 2007. SciDAC sponsored research has enabled the United States climate modeling community to make significant contributions to this report. Two large multi-Laboratory SciDAC projects are directly relevant to the activities of the IPCC. The first, entitled ''Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers'', has made important software contributions to the recently released third version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3.0) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This is a multi-institutional project involving Los Alamos National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The original principal investigators were Robert Malone and John B. Drake. The current principal investigators are Phil Jones and John B. Drake. The second project, entitled ''Earth System Grid II: Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources'' aims to facilitate the distribution of the copious amounts of data produced by coupled climate model integrations to the general scientific community. This is also a multi-institutional project involving Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The principal investigators are Ian Foster, Don Middleton and Dean Williams. Perhaps most significant among the activities of the ''Collaborative Design'', project was the development of an efficient multi-processor coupling package. CCSM3.0 is an extraordinarily complicated physics code. The fully coupled model consists of separate submodels of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land. In addition, comprehensive biogeochemistry and atmospheric chemistry submodels are under intensive current development. Each of these submodels is a large and sophisticated program in its own right. Furthermore, in the coupled model, each of the submodels, including the coupler, is a separate multiprocessor executable program. The coupler package must efficiently coordinate the communication as well as interpolate or aggregate information between these programs. This regridding function is necessary because each major subsystem (air, water or surface) is allowed to have its own independent grid.« less

Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katzenberger, John; Arnott, James; Wright, Alyson

2014-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generationmore » of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).« less

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries.

PubMed

Mach, Katharine J; Freeman, Patrick T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Field, Christopher B

2016-08-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain.

Record dry summer in 2015 challenges precipitation projections in Central Europe.

PubMed

Orth, René; Zscheischler, Jakob; Seneviratne, Sonia I

2016-06-21

Central Europe was characterized by a humid-temperate climate in the 20(th) century. Climate change projections suggest that climate in this area will shift towards warmer temperatures by the end of the 21(st) century, while projected precipitation changes are highly uncertain. Here we show that the 2015 summer rainfall was the lowest on record since 1901 in Central Europe, and that climate models that perform best in the three driest years of the historical time period 1901-2015 project stronger drying trends in the 21(st) century than models that perform best in the remaining years. Analyses of precipitation and derived soil moisture reveal that the 2015 event was drier than both the recent 2003 or 2010 extreme summers in Central Europe. Additionally there are large anomalies in satellite-derived vegetation greenness. In terms of precipitation and temperature anomalies, the 2015 summer in Central Europe is found to lie between historical climate in the region and that characteristic of the Mediterranean area. Even though the models best capturing past droughts are not necessarily generally more reliable in the future, the 2015 drought event illustrates that potential future drying trends have severe implications and could be stronger than commonly assumed from the entire IPCC AR5 model ensemble.

Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes while smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. [1] Collins, M. et al. (2013) Contribution of WG I to the 5th AR of the IPCC[2] Romero-Lankao, P. et al (2014) Contribution of WG II to the 5th AR of the IPCC[3] Walsh, J. et al. (2014) The 3rd National Climate Assessment

Effects of climate change on aerosol concentrations in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megaritis, Athanasios G.; Fountoukis, Christos; Pandis, Spyros N.

2013-04-01

High concentrations of particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in size (PM2.5), ozone and other major constituents of air pollution, have adverse effects on human health, visibility and ecosystems (Seinfeld and Pandis, 2006), and are strongly influenced by meteorology. Emissions control policy is currently made assuming that climate will remain constant in the future. However, climate change over the next decades is expected to be significant (IPCC, 2007) and may impact local and regional air quality. Determining the sensitivity of the concentrations of air pollutants to climate change is an important step toward estimating future air quality. In this study we applied PMCAMx (Fountoukis et al., 2011), a three dimensional chemical transport model, over Europe, in order to quantify the individual effects of various meteorological parameters on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. A suite of perturbations in various meteorological factors, such as temperature, wind speed, absolute humidity and precipitation were imposed separately on base case conditions to determine the sensitivities of PM2.5 concentrations and composition to these parameters. Different simulation periods (summer, autumn 2008 and winter 2009) are used to examine also the seasonal dependence of the air quality - climate interactions. The results of these sensitivity simulations suggest that there is an important link between changes in meteorology and PM2.5 levels. We quantify through separate sensitivity simulations the processes which are mainly responsible for the final predicted changes in PM2.5 concentration and composition. The predicted PM2.5 response to those meteorology perturbations was found to be quite variable in space and time. These results suggest that, the changes in concentrations caused by changes in climate should be taken into account in long-term air quality planning. References Fountoukis C., Racherla P. N., Denier van der Gon H. A. C., Polymeneas P., Charalampidis P. E., Pilinis C., Wiedensohler A., Dall'Osto M., O'Dowd C., and S. N. Pandis: Evaluation of a three-dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) in the European domain during the EUCAARI May 2008 campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 10331-10347, 2011. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Summary for Policymakers, 2007. Seinfeld, J. H., and Pandis, S. N.: Atmospheric chemistry and physics: From air pollution to climate change, 2nd ed.; John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 2006.

From up to date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2017-04-01

This paper provides further compelling evidence for 'an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, stopped by mid-century' (Cai, Lenton & Lontzek, 2016). Atmospheric CO2 which is above 405 ppm (actual and trend) still accelerating, despite flat emissions since 2014, with a 2015 >3ppm unprecedented spike in Earth history (A. Glikson),is on the worst case IPCC scenario. Atmospheric methane is increasing faster than its past 20-year rate, almost on the worst-case IPCC AR5 scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2016). Observed effects of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution are increasing faster. This includes long-lived atmospheric GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, surface average warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, Arctic daily sea ice anomaly, ocean heat (and rate of going deeper), ocean acidification, and ocean de-oxygenation. The atmospheric GHG concentration of 485 ppm CO2 eq (WMO, 2015) commits us to 'about 2°C' equilibrium (AR5). 2°C by 2100 would require 'substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades' (AR5). Instead, the May 2016 UN update on 'intended' national emissions targets under the Paris Agreement projects global emissions will be 16% higher by 2030 and the November 2016 International Energy Agency update projects energy-related CO2 eq emissions will be 30% higher by 2030, leading to 'around 2.7°C by 2100 and above 3°C thereafter'. Climate change feedback will be positive this century and multiple large vulnerable sources of amplifying feedback exist (AR5). 'Extensive tree mortality and widespread forest die-back linked to drought and temperature stress have been documented on all vegetated continents' (AR5). 'Recent studies suggest a weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2' (WMO, 2016). Under all but the best-case IPCC AR5 scenario, surface temperature is projected to increase above 2°C by 2100, which is above 3°C (equilibrium) after 2100, with ocean acidification still increasing at 2100. Ocean heat is increasing under all scenarios at 2100. For all producing regions 'With or without adaptation, negative impacts on average crop yields become likely from the 2030s' (AR5). Crop models do not capture all adverse effects. The climate change of 2030 is practically locked in. NASA NEX downscaled daily maximum temperature projections at 1.5°C are incompatible with today's crop yields in major agricultural regions. Climate-change-related impacts from extreme events are high at 1.5°C (AR5) and add to modeled crop declines. 'Some unique and threatened systems are already at risk from climate change (high confidence)' with 'risk of severe consequences' higher with warming of around 1.5°C (AR5). At today's surface temperature increase, 'risks associated with tipping points become moderate' and 'increase disproportionately' as temperature increases above 1.5°C (AR5). According to mitigation projections, global emissions would decline forthwith for a better than 66% chance of a 2°C limit by 2100 (over 3°C after 2100). Failure to do so would risk the future sustainability of civilization and the human population. The IPCC does not make recommendations so this falls on scientists. By recommending immediate (emergency) massive action on CO2, the science community would make a momentous contribution to the future of humanity.

Aerosol direct radiative effects over the northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, and North Indian Oceans: estimates based on in-situ chemical and optical measurements and chemical transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, T. S.; Anderson, T. L.; Baynard, T.; Bond, T.; Boucher, O.; Carmichael, G.; Clarke, A.; Erlick, C.; Guo, H.; Horowitz, L.; Howell, S.; Kulkarni, S.; Maring, H.; McComiskey, A.; Middlebrook, A.; Noone, K.; O'Dowd, C. D.; Ogren, J.; Penner, J.; Quinn, P. K.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Savoie, D. L.; Schwartz, S. E.; Shinozuka, Y.; Tang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Wu, Y.

2006-05-01

The largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial era is that due to aerosols, a substantial fraction of which is the uncertainty associated with scattering and absorption of shortwave (solar) radiation by anthropogenic aerosols in cloud-free conditions (IPCC, 2001). Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in aerosol influences on climate is critical to understanding climate change over the industrial period and to improving predictions of future climate change for assumed emission scenarios. Measurements of aerosol properties during major field campaigns in several regions of the globe during the past decade are contributing to an enhanced understanding of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on light scattering and climate. The present study, which focuses on three regions downwind of major urban/population centers (North Indian Ocean (NIO) during INDOEX, the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) during ACE-Asia, and the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA) during ICARTT), incorporates understanding gained from field observations of aerosol distributions and properties into calculations of perturbations in radiative fluxes due to these aerosols. This study evaluates the current state of observations and of two chemical transport models (STEM and MOZART). Measurements of burdens, extinction optical depth (AOD), and direct radiative effect of aerosols (DRE - change in radiative flux due to total aerosols) are used as measurement-model check points to assess uncertainties. In-situ measured and remotely sensed aerosol properties for each region (mixing state, mass scattering efficiency, single scattering albedo, and angular scattering properties and their dependences on relative humidity) are used as input parameters to two radiative transfer models (GFDL and University of Michigan) to constrain estimates of aerosol radiative effects, with uncertainties in each step propagated through the analysis. Constraining the radiative transfer calculations by observational inputs increases the clear-sky, 24-h averaged AOD (34±8%), top of atmosphere (TOA) DRE (32±12%), and TOA direct climate forcing of aerosols (DCF - change in radiative flux due to anthropogenic aerosols) (37±7%) relative to values obtained with "a priori" parameterizations of aerosol loadings and properties (GFDL RTM). The resulting constrained clear-sky TOA DCF is -3.3±0.47, -14±2.6, -6.4±2.1 Wm-2 for the NIO, NWP, and NWA, respectively. With the use of constrained quantities (extensive and intensive parameters) the calculated uncertainty in DCF was 25% less than the "structural uncertainties" used in the IPCC-2001 global estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Such comparisons with observations and resultant reductions in uncertainties are essential for improving and developing confidence in climate model calculations incorporating aerosol forcing.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

The Impact of Climate Change in Rainfall Erosivity Index on Humid Mudstone Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ci-Jian; Lin, Jiun-Chuan

2017-04-01

It has been quite often pointed out in many relevant studies that climate change may result in negative impacts on soil erosion. Then, humid mudstone area is highly susceptible to climate change. Taiwan has extreme erosion in badland area, with annual precipitation over 2000 mm/y which is a considerably 3 times higher than other badland areas around the world, and with around 9-13 cm/y in denudation rate. This is the reason why the Erren River, a badland dominated basin has the highest mean sediment yield in the world, over 105 t km2 y. This study aims to know how the climate change would affect soil erosion from the source in the Erren River catchment. Firstly, the data of hourly precipitation from 1992 to 2016 are used to establish the regression between rainfall erosivity index (R, one of component for USLE) and precipitation. Secondly, using the 10 climate change models (provide form IPCC AR5) simulates the changes of monthly precipitation in different scenario from 2017 to 2216, and then over 200 years prediction R values can be use to describe the tendency of soil erosion in the future. The results show that (1) the relationship between rainfall erosion index and precipitation has high correction (>0.85) during 1992-2016. (2) From 2017 to 2216, 7 scenarios show that annual rainfall erosion index will increase over 2-18%. In contrast, the others will decrease over 7-14%. Overall, the variations of annual rainfall erosion index fall in the range of -14 to 18%, but it is important to pay attention to the variation of annual rainfall erosion index in extreme years. These fall in the range of -34 to 239%. This explains the extremity of soil erosion will occur easily in the future. Keywords: Climate Change, Mudstone, Rainfall Erosivity Index, IPCC AR5

Biodiversity and Climate Modeling Workshop Series: Identifying gaps and needs for improving large-scale biodiversity models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiskopf, S. R.; Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.

2017-12-01

At the global scale, well-accepted global circulation models and agreed-upon scenarios for future climate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are available. In contrast, biodiversity modeling at the global scale lacks analogous tools. While there is great interest in development of similar bodies and efforts for international monitoring and modelling of biodiversity at the global scale, equivalent modelling tools are in their infancy. This lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity to bring together climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to promote development of integrated approaches in modeling global biodiversity. Improved models are needed to understand how we are progressing towards the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, many of which are not on track to meet the 2020 goal, threatening global biodiversity conservation, monitoring, and sustainable use. We brought together biodiversity, climate, and remote sensing experts to try to 1) identify lessons learned from the climate community that can be used to improve global biodiversity models; 2) explore how NASA and other remote sensing products could be better integrated into global biodiversity models and 3) advance global biodiversity modeling, prediction, and forecasting to inform the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. The 1st In-Person meeting focused on determining a roadmap for effective assessment of biodiversity model projections and forecasts by 2030 while integrating and assimilating remote sensing data and applying lessons learned, when appropriate, from climate modeling. Here, we present the outcomes and lessons learned from our first E-discussion and in-person meeting and discuss the next steps for future meetings.

Ecosystem size structure response to 21st century climate projection: large fish abundance decreases in the central North Pacific and increases in the California Current.

PubMed

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Dunne, John P; Blanchard, Julia L

2013-03-01

Output from an earth system model is paired with a size-based food web model to investigate the effects of climate change on the abundance of large fish over the 21st century. The earth system model, forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special report on emission scenario A2, combines a coupled climate model with a biogeochemical model including major nutrients, three phytoplankton functional groups, and zooplankton grazing. The size-based food web model includes linkages between two size-structured pelagic communities: primary producers and consumers. Our investigation focuses on seven sites in the North Pacific, each highlighting a specific aspect of projected climate change, and includes top-down ecosystem depletion through fishing. We project declines in large fish abundance ranging from 0 to 75.8% in the central North Pacific and increases of up to 43.0% in the California Current (CC) region over the 21st century in response to change in phytoplankton size structure and direct physiological effects. We find that fish abundance is especially sensitive to projected changes in large phytoplankton density and our model projects changes in the abundance of large fish being of the same order of magnitude as changes in the abundance of large phytoplankton. Thus, studies that address only climate-induced impacts to primary production without including changes to phytoplankton size structure may not adequately project ecosystem responses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

When the Well Runs Dry: Climate Change, Water and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbus, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water is a critical pathway between changes in climate and impacts on human health. Increased intensity of the hydrologic cycle can impair water quality through both drought and runoff associated with extreme precipitation events. Local changes or extremes in hydrological cycles can also alter the life cycles of moquitoes, ticks, snails, and other carriers of human diseases. These impacts in turn can affect the transmission of malaria, schistosomiasis, and many other human diseases. Warmer freshwater and coastal waters, in combination with other factors like fertilizer runoff and salinity, are also associated with proliferation of a variety of human pathogens, including cyanobacteria and vibrio species. This presentation will highlight the many linkages between climate change, water and human health. It will review recent findings of the US National Climate Assessment and 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC with regards to water-related threats to health, and discuss approaches to modeling health outcomes of water-associated climate change impacts.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

PubMed

Lee, Jasmine R; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A; Shaw, Justine D; Terauds, Aleks

2017-07-06

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km 2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jasmine R.; Raymond, Ben; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Chadès, Iadine; Fuller, Richard A.; Shaw, Justine D.; Terauds, Aleks

2017-07-01

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change signals from climate variability (e.g. changes in water cycle, extremes...), for assessing strengths and limitations of methodologies using high end climate scenarios versus true stabilisation pathways, and for exploring long term risks beyond transient response, with consideration for overshoots and the full timescale of Earth system feedbacks. Lessons learnt from past warm climatic phases may also provide insights complementary to projections, albeit without the perspective of rates of changes that is specific to the issue of 1.5°C global warming. This special report is also designed to be complementary from the other reports in preparation for the IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle (AR6), including the special reports on the ocean and the cryosphere, on land use issues, both scheduled for 2019, and the Working Group main assessment reports, scheduled for 2021-2022.

Adaptation Challenges in Complex River Basins: Lessons Learned and Unlearned for the Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2008-12-01

Climate variations affect the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices in support of efficiency and environmental needs. Selected basins around the world, including the Colorado, show agreements in model projections of increasing aridity. Adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanization and most importantly upstream-downstream winners and losers. Thus current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability. In many locations, water management does not even satisfactorily cope with current climate variability, so that large flood and drought-related environmental and economic damages occur on seasonal to decadal timescales. The recently released IPCC Technical Paper notes that adaptation procedures and risk management practices that incorporate projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties are being developed in some countries and regions.In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in drought and water resources management and optimization in the context of climate variability and projected change in the Western U.S., the European Union (including the Iberian Peninsula), the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere. Since the release of the IPCC report several of the authors (including the presenter) have held meetings on comparative assessments of adaptation and its challenges in interstate and international river basins. As a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management could assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts. Future adaptations include technical changes that improve water use efficiency, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. The co-evolution of climate history and adaptation did not start with the release of IPCC scenarios. The development of the Colorado River Basin was itself influenced by water resources planners from around the world (including the Middle East) in the late 1800s. As such lessons identified, but not always learned, abound. These hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. However, several paradoxes in water management and governance mitigate against the effectiveness of scientific information for meeting short term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities and for providing water to meet environmental needs. Consequently a complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of changes in water use efficiency and intentional transfers of the use of water from one sector to another.

Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate?

PubMed Central

Cunze, Sarah; Heydel, Felix; Tackenberg, Oliver

2013-01-01

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. PMID:23894290

Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

2017-04-01

Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

ICLUS v1.3 Population Projections

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate and land-use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these findings it is important to use land-use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying climate-change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed land-use outputs that are based on a downscaled version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines. ICLUS outputs are derived from a pair of models. A demographic model generates county-level population estimates that are distributed by a spatial allocation model (SERGoM v3) as housing density across the landscape. Land-use outputs were developed for the four main SRES storylines and a baseline (base case). The model is run for the conterminous USA and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to housing density at a 1 hectare spatial resolution, this project also generated estimates of impervious surface at a resolution of 1 square kilometer. This shapefile holds population data for all counties of the conterminous USA for all decades (2010-2100) and SRES population growth scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2), as well as a 'base case' (BC) scenario, for use in the Integrated Climate and Land Use

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead.

PubMed

Ramanathan, V; Feng, Y

2008-09-23

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 degrees C (1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 degrees C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 degrees C to 3 degrees C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that approximately 25% (0.6 degrees C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6 degrees C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO(2) mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees C.

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

2008-01-01

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C. PMID:18799733

Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2012-01-01

Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

2008-01-01

In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.

2015-12-01

The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of the IPCC. Huggel, C., Stone, D., Eicken, H., & Hansen, G. (2015). Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z. Stocker et al. (eds.) (2013) The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

2012-09-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that single changes have a small mitigating effect on GHG emissions (<5%), except for strategies used to control emissions from manure storage in the Confinement system (14% to 24%). However, when several management strategies were combined, GHG emissions per unit of product could be reduced significantly (15% to 30%). The LCA method was identified as the preferred approach to assess the effect of management changes on GHG emissions, but the analysis indicated that further standardisation of the approach is needed given the sensitivity of the approach to allocation decisions regarding milk and meat.

Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

PubMed Central

Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric

2009-01-01

We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is −13 per cent (from −97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500±373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa. PMID:19324660

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2007-12-01

The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone · Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are currently lacking · Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies Adaptive capacity to manage as climate changes can be increased by introducing adaptation measures into development planning and operations (sometimes termed 'mainstreaming'). This can be achieved by including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design, or by including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster preparedness programs (such as introducing drought warning systems based on actual management needs). The major barriers to implementing adaptive management measures are that adaptation to climate change is not as yet a high priority, and the validity of local manifestations of global climate change remains in question. Coping with the uncertainties associated with estimates of future climate change and the impacts on economic and environmental resources means management measures must be robust enough to apply to a range of potential scenarios, some as yet undefined Greenhouse gas mitigation is not enough to reduce climatic risks, nor does identifying the need for adaptations translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. By implementing mainstreaming initiatives, adaptation to climate change will become part of, or will be consistent with, other well- established programs to increase societal resilience, particularly environmental impacts assessments, adaptive management

Creating "Intelligent" Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Noel; Taylor, Patrick

2014-05-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is used to add value to individual model projections and construct a consensus projection. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, individual models reproduce certain climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. The intention is to produce improved ("intelligent") unequal-weight ensemble averages. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Several climate process metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument in combination with surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing the equal-weighted ensemble average and an ensemble weighted using the process-based metric. Additionally, this study investigates the dependence of the metric weighting scheme on the climate state using a combination of model simulations including a non-forced preindustrial control experiment, historical simulations, and several radiative forcing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to advise better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

Report on Climate Change E-mails Exonerates Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2010-07-01

A new report commissioned by the University of East Anglia (UEA) has largely exonerated climate scientists from the university's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) who wrote a number of controversial e-mail messages that were made public without authorization in November 2009. Critics have argued that the e-mails indicate that scientists had tampered with scientific data—including data related to land station temperatures and temperature reconstructions from tree ring analysis—subverted the peer review process, misused the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and withheld data from critics. At a 7 July news conference to release the “Independent climate change e-mails review,” report chair Muir Russell said, “Climate science is a matter of such global importance that the highest standards of honesty, rigor, and openness are needed in its conduct. On the specific allegations made against the behavior of CRU scientists, we find that their rigor and honesty as scientists are not in doubt.” He continued, “In addition, we do not find that their behavior has prejudiced the balance of advice given to policy makers. In particular, we did not find any evidence of behavior that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.” Russell is chair of the Judicial Appointments Board for Scotland and formerly was principal and vice-chancellor of the University of Glasgow, in Scotland.

Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

2010-07-01

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for bigeye tuna spawning. The adult feeding habitat also improved in the ETP due to the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the sub-surface allowing adults to access deeper forage. Conversely, in the Western Central Pacific the temperature becomes too warm for bigeye tuna spawning. The decrease in spawning is compensated by an increase of larvae biomass in subtropical regions. However, natural mortality of older stages increased due to lower habitat values (too warm surface temperatures, decreasing oxygen concentration in the sub-surface and less food). This increased mortality and the displacement of surviving fish to the eastern region led to stable then declining adult biomass at the end of the century.

Development of municipal solid waste classification in Korea based on fossil carbon fraction.

PubMed

Lee, Jeongwoo; Kang, Seongmin; Kim, Seungjin; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2015-10-01

Environmental problems and climate change arising from waste incineration are taken quite seriously in the world. In Korea, the waste disposal methods are largely classified into landfill, incineration, recycling, etc. and the amount of incinerated waste has risen by 24.5% from 2002. In the analysis of CO₂emissions estimations of waste incinerators fossil carbon content are main factor by the IPCC. FCF differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country, and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration. The characteristics possible for sorting were classified according to FCF and form. The characteristics sorted according to fossil carbon fraction were paper, textiles, rubber, and leather. Paper was classified into pure paper and processed paper; textiles were classified into cotton and synthetic fibers; and rubber and leather were classified into artificial and natural. The analysis of FCF was implemented by collecting representative samples from each classification group, by applying the 14C method, and using AMS equipment. And the analysis values were compared with the default values proposed by the IPCC. In this study of garden and park waste and plastics, the differences were within the range of the IPCC default values or the differences were negligible. However, coated paper, synthetic textiles, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, artificial leather, and other wastes showed differences of over 10% in FCF content. IPCC is comprised of largely 9 types of qualitative classifications, in emissions estimation a great difference can occur from the combined characteristics according with the existing IPCC classification system by using the minutely classified waste characteristics as in this study. Fossil carbon fraction (FCF) differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country; and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration.

Coupled Global-Regional Climate Model Simulations of Future Changes in Hydrology over Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, R. J.; Erickson, D. J.; Hernandez, J. L.; Irwin, D.

2005-12-01

Central America covers a relatively small area, but is topographically very complex, has long coast-lines, large inland bodies of water, and very diverse land cover which is both natural and human-induced. As a result, Central America is plagued by hydrologic extremes, especially major flooding and drought events, in a region where many people still barely manage to eke out a living through subsistence. Therefore, considerable concern exists about whether these extreme events will change, either in magnitude or in number, as climate changes in the future. To address this concern, we have used global climate model simulations of future climate change to drive a regional climate model centered on Central America. We use the IPCC `business as usual' scenario 21st century run made with the NCAR CCSM3 global model to drive the regional model MM5 at 12 km resolution. We chose the `business as usual' scenario to focus on the largest possible changes that are likely to occur. Because we are most interested in near-term changes, our simulations are for the years 2010, 2015, and 2025. A long `present-day run (for 2005) allows us to distinguish between climate variability and any signal due to climate change. Furthermore, a multi-year run with MM5 forced by NCEP reanalyses allows an assessment of how well the coupled global-regional model performs over Central America. Our analyses suggest that the coupled model does a credible job simulating the current climate and hydrologic regime, though lack of sufficient observations strongly complicates this comparison. The suite of model runs for the future years is currently nearing completion, and key results will be presented at the meeting.

Progress Toward a Global, EOS-Era Aerosol Air Mass Type Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Ralph A.

2012-01-01

The MISR and MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra Satellite have been collecting data containing information about the state of Earth's atmosphere and surface for over eleven years. Data from these instruments have been used to develop a global, monthly climatology of aerosol amount that is widely used as a constraint on climate models, including those used for the 2007 IPCC assessment report. The next frontier in assessing aerosol radiative forcing of climate is aerosol type, and in particular, the absorption properties of major aerosol air masses. This presentation will focus on the prospects for constraining aerosol type globally, and the steps we are taking to apply a combination of satellite and suborbital data to this challenge.

Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

PubMed Central

Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Madsen, Marianne S.; Olesen, Jørgen E.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards. PMID:24066059

Hubbert's Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, D.

2008-12-01

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) makes projections in terms of scenarios that include estimates of oil, gas, and coal production. These scenarios are defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios or SRES (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). It is striking how different these scenarios are. For example, total oil production from 2005 to 2100 in the scenarios varies by 5:1 (Appendix SRES Version 1.1). Because production in some of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100, this ratio would be comparable to 10:1 if the years after 2100 were considered. The IPCC says "... the resultant 40 SRES scenarios together encompass the current range of uncertainties of future GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions arising from different characteristics of these models ..." (Nakicenovic et al., 2000, Summary for Policy Makers). This uncertainty is important for climate modeling, because it is larger than the likely range for the temperature sensitivity, which the IPCC gives as 2.3:1 (Gerard Meehl et al., 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Global Climate Projections, p. 799). The uncertainty indicates that we could improve climate modeling if we could make a better estimate of future oil, gas, and coal production. We start by considering the two major fossil-fuel regions with substantial exhaustion, US oil and British coal. It turns out that simple normal and logistic curve fits to the cumulative production for these regions give quite stable projections for the ultimate production. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. For US oil, the range for the fits for the ultimate is 1.15:1 (225- 258 billion barrels) for the period starting in 1956, when King Hubbert made his prediction of the peak year of US oil production. For UK coal, the range is 1.26:1 for the period starting in 1905, at the time of a Royal Commission on coal supplies. We extend this approach to find fits for world oil and gas production, and by a regional analysis, for world coal production. For world oil and gas production, the fit for the ultimate is 640Gtoe (billion metric tons of oil equivalent). This is somewhat larger than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 580Gtoe. Because future discoveries are not included in the reserves, it is to be expected that our fit would be larger. On the other hand, there have been large increases in OPEC reserves that have not been subject to outside audit, so it is not clear how close the two numbers should be. For world coal, the sum of the fits for regional ultimate production is 660Gt (billion metric tons). This is considerably less than the sum of cumulative production and reserves, 1,100Gt, but it is consistent with the British experience, where until recently, reserves were a large multiple of future production. The projection is that we will have consumed half of the ultimate world oil, gas, and coal production by 2019. This means that the current intense development of alternative sources of energy can be justified independently of climate considerations. When these projections are converted to carbon equivalents, the projected future emissions from burning oil, gas, and coal from 2005 on are 520GtC. The projected emissions for the 2005-2100 period are smaller than for any of the 40 SRES scenarios. This suggests that future scenarios should take exhaustion into account. These projections, if correct, are good news for climate change.

Modeling impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand.

PubMed

Suwannatrai, A; Pratumchart, K; Suwannatrai, K; Thinkhamrop, K; Chaiyos, J; Kim, C S; Suwanweerakamtorn, R; Boonmars, T; Wongsaroj, T; Sripa, B

2017-01-01

Global climate change is now regarded as imposing a significant threat of enhancing transmission of parasitic diseases. Maximum entropy species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) was used to explore how projected climate change could affect the potential distribution of the carcinogenic liver fluke, Opisthorchis viverrini, in Thailand. A range of climate variables was used: the Hadley Global Environment Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) climate change model and also the IPCC scenarios A2a for 2050 and 2070. Occurrence data from surveys conducted in 2009 and 2014 were obtained from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The MaxEnt model performed better than random for O. viverrini with training AUC values greater than 0.8 under current and future climatic conditions. The current distribution of O. viverrini is significantly affected by precipitation and minimum temperature. According to current conditions, parts of Thailand climatically suitable for O. viverrini are mostly in the northeast and north, but the parasite is largely absent from southern Thailand. Under future climate change scenarios, the distribution of O. viverrini in 2050 should be significantly affected by precipitation, maximum temperature, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter, whereas in 2070, significant factors are likely to be precipitation during the coldest quarter, maximum, and minimum temperatures. Maps of predicted future distribution revealed a drastic decrease in presence of O. viverrini in the northeast region. The information gained from this study should be a useful reference for implementing long-term prevention and control strategies for O. viverrini in Thailand.

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

PubMed

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Impacts of climate change in the sugarcane production in the center-south macro-region of Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

R Pereira, V.; Zullo, J., Jr.; Koga-Vicente, A.

2016-12-01

This paper describes the most important results of a Project developed over four years by a research network having 19 researchers and 45 students. The main objective of this Project was to generate alcohol production scenarios as support for the formulation of public policy applied to the adaptation of the Brazilian sugar and alcohol industry to the possible climate changes. The study area was the center-south macro-region of Brazil, with the states of São Paulo, Paraná, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás, that is the main producer area of sugarcane in the world. The scenarios were developed using the HadGEM2-ES and Miroc5 models of CMIP5/IPCC and did not show significant differences between them and were very close to those obtained with the HadCM3 and Miroc3 models of the AR4/IPCC. The results considering the sugarcane varieties grown nowadays indicate that in a scenario with changes in precipitation and temperatures, the main producing region will not have a decrease in municipalities with low climatic risk. Also the expansion region (South of Goiás and North-West of São Paulo) may become of high climatic risk, becoming an area where the artificial irrigation will be demanded. The challenge related to the water use and availability that already exists nowadays will be yet more important in the future. The expansion of Brazilian sugarcane production is being much more based on the territorial extension, i.e. by increasing the production area, than by increasing the productivity. The increased mechanization of cane harvesting improves the air quality and reduces the incidence of respiratory diseases. It is extremely important that incentives to mechanization be extended to other regions of the country since the end of burning benefits the health of people living close to the sugarcane fields. This confirms the need for planning this sector, with the development of new varieties and new production technologies considering the possible future climate conditions.

Verifying the UK N_{2}O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, Ed; Meneguz, Elena; Skiba, Ute; Misselbrook, Tom; Cardenas, Laura; Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair; Dragosits, Ulli

2016-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential ˜300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates (e.g. agricultural management data), in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and a revised approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the revised approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (www.ghgplatform.org.uk, Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E England; Ridge Hill, W England; Mace Head, W Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to fit with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of fertiliser application and land spreading of manures. The model run using the 'experimental' approach was found to give a closer agreement with the observed data.

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries

PubMed Central

Mach, Katharine J.; Freeman, Patrick T.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Field, Christopher B.

2016-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report’s summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain. PMID:27532046

Aerosol direct radiative effects over the northwest Atlantic, northwest Pacific, and North Indian Oceans: estimates based on in-situ chemical and optical measurements and chemical transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, T. S.; Anderson, T. L.; Baynard, T.; Bond, T.; Boucher, O.; Carmichael, G.; Clarke, A.; Erlick, C.; Guo, H.; Horowitz, L.; Howell, S.; Kulkarni, S.; Maring, H.; McComiskey, A.; Middlebrook, A.; Noone, K.; O'Dowd, C. D.; Ogren, J.; Penner, J.; Quinn, P. K.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Savoie, D. L.; Schwartz, S. E.; Shinozuka, Y.; Tang, Y.; Weber, R. J.; Wu, Y.

2006-01-01

The largest uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial era is that due to aerosols, a substantial fraction of which is the uncertainty associated with scattering and absorption of shortwave (solar) radiation by anthropogenic aerosols in cloud-free conditions (IPCC, 2001). Quantifying and reducing the uncertainty in aerosol influences on climate is critical to understanding climate change over the industrial period and to improving predictions of future climate change for assumed emission scenarios. Measurements of aerosol properties during major field campaigns in several regions of the globe during the past decade are contributing to an enhanced understanding of atmospheric aerosols and their effects on light scattering and climate. The present study, which focuses on three regions downwind of major urban/population centers (North Indian Ocean (NIO) during INDOEX, the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) during ACE-Asia, and the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (NWA) during ICARTT), incorporates understanding gained from field observations of aerosol distributions and properties into calculations of perturbations in radiative fluxes due to these aerosols. This study evaluates the current state of observations and of two chemical transport models (STEM and MOZART). Measurements of burdens, extinction optical depth (AOD), and direct radiative effect of aerosols (DRE - change in radiative flux due to total aerosols) are used as measurement-model check points to assess uncertainties. In-situ measured and remotely sensed aerosol properties for each region (mixing state, mass scattering efficiency, single scattering albedo, and angular scattering properties and their dependences on relative humidity) are used as input parameters to two radiative transfer models (GFDL and University of Michigan) to constrain estimates of aerosol radiative effects, with uncertainties in each step propagated through the analysis. Constraining the radiative transfer calculations by observational inputs increases the clear-sky, 24-h averaged AOD (34±8%), top of atmosphere (TOA) DRE (32±12%), and TOA direct climate forcing of aerosols (DCF - change in radiative flux due to anthropogenic aerosols) (37±7%) relative to values obtained with "a priori" parameterizations of aerosol loadings and properties (GFDL RTM). The resulting constrained TOA DCF is -3.3±0.47, -14±2.6, -6.4±2.1 Wm-2 for the NIO, NWP, and NWA, respectively. Constraining the radiative transfer calculations by observational inputs reduces the uncertainty range in the DCF in these regions relative to global IPCC (2001) estimates by a factor of approximately 2. Such comparisons with observations and resultant reductions in uncertainties are essential for improving and developing confidence in climate model calculations incorporating aerosol forcing.

Climate change and natural disasters: integrating science and practice to protect health.

PubMed

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-12-17

Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human.

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 °C futures

DOE PAGES

Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; ...

2017-09-19

The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. Here, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 andmore » 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. We also describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.« less

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on contemporary Satellite and other Observations for Assessing Regional Climate Model Fidelity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Mattman, C.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Lean, P.

2011-12-01

Evaluation of climate models against observations is an essential part of assessing the impact of climate variations and change on regionally important sectors and improving climate models. Regional climate models (RCMs) are of a particular concern. RCMs provide fine-scale climate needed by the assessment community via downscaling global climate model projections such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that form one aspect of the quantitative basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The lack of reliable fine-resolution observational data and formal tools and metrics has represented a challenge in evaluating RCMs. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information and constraints on many different processes within the climate system. Due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using contemporary observations, however, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL and UCLA have developed the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the regional modeling community. The system includes a central database (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Database: RCMED) to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating and plotting statistical metrics to assess model performance (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Tool: RCMET). This allows the time taken to compare model data with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. RCMES is a component of the recent ExArch project, an international effort for facilitating the archive and access of massive amounts data for users using cloud-based infrastructure, in this case as applied to the study of climate and climate change. This presentation will describe RCMES and demonstrate its utility using examples from RCMs applied to the southwest US as well as to Africa based on output from the CORDEX activity. Application of RCMES to the evaluation of multi-RCM hindcast for CORDEX-Africa will be presented in a companion paper in A41.

Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menon, Arathy; Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob

2013-04-01

The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the IPCC's AR-5, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. While all models show an increase in day-to-day variability, some models are more realistic in capturing the observed seasonal mean rainfall over India than others. While no model's monsoon rainfall exceeds the observed value by more than two standard deviations, half of the models simulate a significantly weaker monsoon than observed. The relative increase in day-to-day variability by the year 2100 ranges from 15% to 48% under the strongest scenario (RCP-8.5), in the ten models which capture seasonal mean rainfall closest to observations. The variability increase per degree of global warming is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% +/- 4% per K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.

Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

consequently, higher ocean water temperatures are increasing the occurrence of coral bleaching and coral reef die-offs.57 The IPCC concludes that...unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, in- sects, ocean acidification ), and other global...instance, the disintegration of saltwater fishing indus- tries due to ocean acidification could spark inter- and intrastate conflict as numerous

Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

2013-12-01

In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced in the maximal feasible reduction (MFR) scenario, contributing to global mean temperature reduction by about -0.25 oC after 2030. This heating-SLCPs-induced warming mitigation in MFR is, however, largely cancelled out by the temperature increase due to decreases in cooling aerosols (SO42-, NO3-, and organics), resulting in temperature projection which is not quite different from the other scenarios like CLE (current legislation for air quality) or 450ppm climate stabilization (intermediate reduction) scenario. References Bond et al. (2013): Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 5380-5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171, 2013. Cofala et al. (2007): Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030, Atmos. Environ., 41, 8486-8499. Kerr et al. (2013): Soot is warming the world even more than thought, Science, 339, 382, doi: 10.1126/science.339.6118.382. Klimont, Z., Brink, C. (2006): Modelling of Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases from Agricultural Sources in Europe. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. Shindell et al. (2012): Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security, Science, 335, 183-189, doi: 10.1126/science.1210026.

A Harder Rain is Going to Fall: Challenges for Actionable Projections of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological extremes are projected to increase in both severity and frequency as the Earth's surface continues to warm in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These extremes will directly affect the availability and reliability of water and other critical resources. The most comprehensive suite of multi-model projections has been assembled under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) and assessed in the Fifth Assessment (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order for these projections to be actionable, the projections should exhibit consistency and fidelity down to the local length and timescales required for operational resource planning, for example the scales relevant for water allocations from a major watershed. In this presentation, we summarize the length and timescales relevant for resource planning and then use downscaled versions of the IPCC simulations over the contiguous United States to address three questions. First, over what range of scales is there quantitative agreement between the simulated historical extremes and in situ measurements? Second, does this range of scales in the historical and future simulations overlap with the scales relevant for resource management and adaptation? Third, does downscaling enhance the degree of multi-model consistency at scales smaller than the typical global model resolution? We conclude by using these results to highlight requirements for further model development to make the next generation of models more useful for planning purposes.

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet disintegration and very large sea level rise (RFC5). Limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce the risks for RFCs 1 and 2 from High to the Moderate-to-High transition.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Climate-change driven range shifts of anchovy biomass projected by bio-physical coupling individual based model in the marginal seas of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Sukgeun; Pang, Ig-Chan; Lee, Joon-ho; Lee, Kyunghwan

2016-12-01

Recent studies in the western North Pacific reported a declining standing stock biomass of anchovy ( Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and a climate-driven southward shift of anchovy catch in Korean waters. We investigated the effects of a warming ocean on the latitudinal shift of anchovy catch by developing and applying individual-based models (IBMs) based on a regional ocean circulation model and an IPCC climate change scenario. Despite the greater uncertainty, our two IBMs projected that, by the 2030s, the strengthened Tsushima warm current in the Korea Strait and the East Sea, driven by global warming, and the subsequent confinement of the relatively cold water masses within the Yellow Sea will decrease larval anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea, but will increase it in the Korea Strait and the East Sea. The decreasing trend of anchovy biomass in the Yellow Sea was reproduced by our models, but further validation and enhancement of the models is required together with extended ichthyoplankton surveys to understand and reliably project range shifts of anchovy and the impacts such range shifts will have on the marine ecosystems and fisheries in the region.

Estimating Regional and National-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector using the `Agricultural and Land Use (ALU) Tool'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, S.; Ogle, S. M.; Wirth, T. C.; Sivakami, G.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides methods and guidance for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The methods are comprehensive and require extensive data compilation, management, aggregation, documentation and calculations of source and sink categories to achieve robust emissions estimates. IPCC Guidelines describe three estimation tiers that require increasing levels of country-specific data and method complexity. Use of higher tiers should improve overall accuracy and reduce uncertainty in estimates. The AFOLU sector represents a complex set of methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sinks. Major AFOLU emissions and sinks include carbon dioxide (CO2) from carbon stock change in biomass, dead organic matter and soils, urea or lime application to soils, and oxidation of carbon in drained organic soils; nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from livestock management and biomass burning; N2O from organic amendments and fertilizer application to soils, and CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. To assist inventory compilers with calculating AFOLU-sector estimates, the Agriculture and Land Use Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool (ALU) was designed to implement Tier 1 and 2 methods using IPCC Good Practice Guidance. It guides the compiler through activity data entry, emission factor assignment, and emissions calculations while carefully maintaining data integrity. ALU also provides IPCC defaults and can estimate uncertainty. ALU was designed to simplify the AFOLU inventory compilation process at regional or national scales, disaggregating the process into a series of steps reduces the potential for errors in the compilation process. An example application has been developed using ALU to estimate methane emissions from rice production in the United States.

Coastal wetlands and global change: overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.R.; Vairin, B.; Burkett, V.R.

1997-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Making sense of past climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Schulz, Michael

2014-05-01

This presentation will summarize the paleoclimate perspective in IPCC AR5, which combines information from natural archives, paleoclimate simulations using both the CMIP5 framework and other simulations, model-data comparisons for model evaluation at hemispheric to regional scales, detection - attribution, and process studies throughout timescales such as polar amplification, carbon cycle or sea level change. It will highlight new findings and coordinated efforts which, within the scientific community, have allowed new information to emerge on time for AR5. It will also stress the aspects which could not be covered or assessed as well as suggestions for further inclusion of paleoclimate information to inform projections.

How well do we understand the Earth's radiation budget and the role of clouds? Selected results of the GEWEX radiation flux assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, E.; Kinne, S.

2013-05-01

Multi-year average radiative flux maps of three satellite data-sets (CERES, ISSCP and GEWEX-SRB) are compared to each other and to typical values by global modeling (median values of results of 20 climate models of the 4th IPCC Assessment). Diversity assessments address radiative flux products and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface, with particular attention to impacts by clouds. Involving both data from surface and TOA special attention is given to the vertical radiation flux divergence and on the infrared Greenhouse effect, which are rarely shown in literature.

An overview of results from the GEWEX radiation flux assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, E.; Stackhouse, P.; Kinne, S.; Contributors from Europe; the USA

2013-05-01

Multi-annual radiative flux averages of the International Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), of the GEWEX - Surface Radiation Budget Project (SRB) and of the Clouds and Earth Radiative Energy System (CERES) are compared and analyzed to characterize the Earth's radiative budget, assess differences and identify possible causes. These satellite based data-sets are also compared to results of a median model, which represents 20 climate models, that participated in the 4th IPCC assessment. Consistent distribution patterns and seasonal variations among the satellite data-sets demonstrate their scientific value, which would further increase if the datasets would be reanalyzed with more accurate and consistent ancillary data.

Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

2001-12-01

A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environmental Programme's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, reports (1990, 1995 and 2001). Our review highlights only the enormous scientific difficulties facing the calculation of climatic effects of added atmospheric CO2 in a GCM. The purpose of such a limited review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of GCMs is to illuminate areas for improvement. Our review does not disprove a significant anthropogenic influence on global climate.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

Predictions of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise under climate change.

PubMed

Senior, C A; Jones, R G; Lowe, J A; Durman, C F; Hudson, D

2002-07-15

Two aspects of global climate change are particularly relevant to river and coastal flooding: changes in extreme precipitation and changes in sea level. In this paper we summarize the relevant findings of the IPCC Third Assessment Report and illustrate some of the common results found by the current generation of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), using the Hadley Centre models. Projections of changes in extreme precipitation, sea-level rise and storm surges affecting the UK will be shown from the Hadley Centre regional models and the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory storm-surge model. A common finding from AOGCMs is that in a warmer climate the intensity of precipitation will increase due to a more intense hydrological cycle. This leads to reduced return periods (i.e. more frequent occurrences) of extreme precipitation in many locations. The Hadley Centre regional model simulates reduced return periods of extreme precipitation in a number of flood-sensitive areas of the UK. In addition, simulated changes in storminess and a rise in average sea level around the UK lead to reduced return periods of extreme high coastal water events. The confidence in all these results is limited by poor spatial resolution in global coupled models and by uncertainties in the physical processes in both global and regional models, and is specific to the climate change scenario used.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-01-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicts model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures are determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations are the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

CERA - the technical basis for WDCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, Hannes; Lautenschlager, Michael

2010-05-01

The World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC) is hosted by the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ). It collects, stores and disseminates data for climate research in order to serve the scientific community. Emphasis hereby is spent on climate modelling and related data products. CERA (Climate and environmental retrieval and archive) is the infrastructure hosting data and metadata from WDCC. Data originates from projects like IPCC (and IPCC-DDC), ENSEMBLES, COPS and several others. Currently more than 400 terabytes of data are managed within CERA. Even more data is addressed through metadata. Data stored inline in CERA is currently archived in an Oracle Database which itself is transparently linked to a sophisticated HSM system. Within this HSM system a wide range of storage systems like different RAID and tape devices are used. HSM for CERA is configured in such a way, that a unique media failure may not cause any data loss. Correct and complete metadata are an important ingredient for relevant archiving procedures. Within CERA special care is taken to assure these goals. As a high end service DOIs can be assigned to data entities as they make the management of intellectual property easier and more convenient. Any data format can be served from within CERA although most of the data stored in CERA is in either GRIB or netCDF format. Out of the box CERA provides several data reduction mechanisms like time-slicing or regional selection. More elaborate functions like format conversion or diverse processing is attached either in- our outline. Fine-grained access control allows data to be distributed under divers data policies. Currently up to 800 users are registered within CERA. More than 600.000 downloads (255 terabytes) have been served from CERA within 2009. At present CERA is restructured, more specific details of the current implementation and the future development will be given in the presentation.

Climate impacts on agricultural biomass production in the CORDEX.be project context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; Willems, Patrick; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Marbaix, Philippe; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Fettweis, Xavier; De Ridder, Koen; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Luyten, Patrick; Pottiaux, Eric

2016-04-01

The most important coordinated international effort to translate the IPCC-AR5 outcomes to regional climate modelling is the so-called "COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment" (CORDEX, http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/). CORDEX.be is a national initiative that aims at combining the Belgian climate and impact modelling research into a single network. The climate network structure is naturally imposed by the top-down data flow, from the four participating upper-air Regional Climate Modelling groups towards seven Local Impact Models (LIMs). In addition to the production of regional climate projections following the CORDEX guidelines, very high-resolution results are provided at convection-permitting resolutions of about 4 km across Belgium. These results are coupled to seven local-impact models with severity indices as output. A multi-model approach is taken that allows uncertainty estimation, a crucial aspect of climate projections for policy-making purposes. The down-scaled scenarios at 4 km resolution allow for impact assessment in different Belgian agro-ecological zones. Climate impacts on arable agriculture are quantified using REGCROP which is a regional dynamic agri-meteorological model geared towards modelling climate impact on biomass production of arable crops (Gobin, 2010, 2012). Results from previous work show that heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depend on the crop type and the field conditions. Root crops such as potato will experience increased drought stress particularly when the probability rises that sensitive crop stages coincide with dry spells. This may be aggravated when wet springs cause water logging in the field and delay planting dates. Despite lower summer precipitation projections for future climate in Belgium, winter cereal yield reductions due to drought stress will be smaller due to earlier maturity. Preliminary results will be presented using the new scenario runs for Belgium.

Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

2013-02-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

2012-04-01

Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is presented in this study as complementary information. Bressani, E. Guia do Barista. Da origem do café ao espresso perfeito. Café Editora, 2007. 210 p. Camargo, M. B. P. The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil. Bragantia, Campinas, v.69, no.1, 2010. Camargo, a. P; Cortez, J. G. Efeito do clima na qualidade de bebida do café nas condições de São Paulo e áreas próximas de outros estados. In 24 Congresso Brasileiro de Pesquisas Cafeeiras. Poços de Caldas, Anais... Poços de Caldas, Embrapa Café, 1998. p. 42-44.

Use of circulation types classifications to evaluate AR4 climate models over the Euro-Atlantic region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pastor, M. A.; Casado, M. J.

2012-10-01

This paper presents an evaluation of the multi-model simulations for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in terms of their ability to simulate the ERA40 circulation types over the Euro-Atlantic region in winter season. Two classification schemes, k-means and SANDRA, have been considered to test the sensitivity of the evaluation results to the classification procedure. The assessment allows establishing different rankings attending spatial and temporal features of the circulation types. Regarding temporal characteristics, in general, all AR4 models tend to underestimate the frequency of occurrence. The best model simulating spatial characteristics is the UKMO-HadGEM1 whereas CCSM3, UKMO-HadGEM1 and CGCM3.1(T63) are the best simulating the temporal features, for both classification schemes. This result agrees with the AR4 models ranking obtained when having analysed the ability of the same AR4 models to simulate Euro-Atlantic variability modes. This study has proved the utility of applying such a synoptic climatology approach as a diagnostic tool for models' assessment. The ability of the models to properly reproduce the position of ridges and troughs and the frequency of synoptic patterns, will therefore improve our confidence in the response of models to future climate changes.

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models.

The Impact of Long-Term Climate Change on Nitrogen Runoff at the Watershed Scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorley, J.; Duffy, C.; Arenas Amado, A.

2017-12-01

The impact of agricultural runoff is a major concern for water quality of mid-western streams. This concern is largely due to excessive use of agricultural fertilizer, a major source of nutrients in many Midwestern watersheds. In order to improve water quality in these watersheds, understanding the long-term trends in nutrient concentration and discharge is an important water quality problem. This study attempts to analyze the role of long-term temperature and precipitation on nitrate runoff in an agriculturally dominated watershed in Iowa. The approach attempts to establish the concentration-discharge (C-Q) signature for the watershed using time series analysis, frequency analysis and model simulation. The climate data is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), model GFDL-CM3 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory Coupled Model 3). The historical water quality data was made available by the IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at the University of Iowa for the clear creek watershed (CCW). The CCW is located in east-central Iowa. The CCW is representative of many Midwestern watersheds with humid-continental climate with predominantly agricultural land use. The study shows how long-term climate changes in temperature and precipitation affects the C-Q dynamics and how a relatively simple approach to data analysis and model projections can be applied to best management practices at the site.

The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendelsohn, Robert; Neumann, James E.

2004-08-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions

PubMed Central

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2014-01-01

A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies. PMID:25073751

An Update on Experimental Climate Prediction and Analysis Products Being Developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is developing a number of experimental prediction and analysis products suitable for research and applications. The prediction products include a large suite of subseasonal and seasonal hindcasts and forecasts (as a contribution to the US National MME), a suite of decadal (10-year) hindcasts (as a contribution to the IPCC decadal prediction project), and a series of large ensemble and high resolution simulations of selected extreme events, including the 2010 Russian and 2011 US heat waves. The analysis products include an experimental atlas of climate (in particular drought) and weather extremes. This talk will provide an update on those activities, and discuss recent efforts by WCRP to leverage off these and similar efforts at other institutions throughout the world to develop an experimental global drought early warning system.

Thermal thresholds as predictors of seed dormancy release and germination timing: altitude-related risks from climate warming for the wild grapevine Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris.

PubMed

Orrù, Martino; Mattana, Efisio; Pritchard, Hugh W; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2012-12-01

The importance of thermal thresholds for predicting seed dormancy release and germination timing under the present climate conditions and simulated climate change scenarios was investigated. In particular, Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris was investigated in four Sardinian populations over the full altitudinal range of the species (from approx. 100 to 800 m a.s.l). Dried and fresh seeds from each population were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10-25 and 25/10 °C), without any pre-treatment and after a warm (3 months at 25 °C) or a cold (3 months at 5 °C) stratification. A thermal time approach was then applied to the germination results for dried seeds and the seed responses were modelled according to the present climate conditions and two simulated scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1 (+1·8 °C) and A2 (+3·4 °C). Cold stratification released physiological dormancy, while very few seeds germinated without treatments or after warm stratification. Fresh, cold-stratified seeds germinated significantly better (>80 %) at temperatures ≥20 °C than at lower temperatures. A base temperature for germination (T(b)) of 9·0-11·3 °C and a thermal time requirement for 50 % of germination (θ(50)) ranging from 33·6 °Cd to 68·6 °Cd were identified for non-dormant cold-stratified seeds, depending on the populations. This complex combination of thermal requirements for dormancy release and germination allowed prediction of field emergence from March to May under the present climatic conditions for the investigated populations. The thermal thresholds for seed germination identified in this study (T(b) and θ(50)) explained the differences in seed germination detected among populations. Under the two simulated IPCC scenarios, an altitude-related risk from climate warming is identified, with lowland populations being more threatened due to a compromised seed dormancy release and a narrowed seed germination window.

The Risks of Missing the 2°C Target and the Risks of Framing the Target As 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, L. H.

2014-12-01

The publication of IPCC AR5 has made it very clear that we are at risk of missing the 2°C target. It has also made it clear that the risks of missing this target would be very dire. But when read through a precautionary lens, it also illustrates potential risks of framing an appropriate climate target as 2°C. We ought to be doing all we can to limit the extent of climate change as much as possible, and framing our target as limiting warming to 2°C may mask the demandingness and urgency of addressing climate change aggressively and holistically. In this session I will summarize my work on what precaution demands in the face of climate change and discuss how it applies to AR5. I argue for a Catastrophic Precautionary Principle that gives us strong moral reasons to take precautionary measures against threats of catastrophe, such as those posed by climate change. I will explain how the IPCC's discussion of the five reasons for concern about climate change support a strong moral argument that we ought to be taking a much more precautionary approach to climate policy than is currently evidenced by UNFCCC agreements and domestic policies around the world. While AR5 supports the conclusion that we should not risk missing the 2°C target, it also supports reevaluating what our target - and more generally what our comprehensive approach to climate policy - should be. In this way, I will discuss the complex science-ethics-policy nexus and the role of climate science in guiding precautionary global climate policies.

Meeting the Regional Climate Information Needs of Decision Makers: The CORDEX Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G. R.; Jones, C.; Giorgi, F.

2011-12-01

Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD), both dynamical (e.g. regional climate modeling) and statistical, is an important approach to produce fine scale climate information for use in impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation studies and practices. RCD techniques have evolved significantly over the last decade, however a coherent and wide picture of regional climate change based on RCD products is still not available and the potentials, limitations and uncertainties of RCD methods need to be better understood by the user community. In order to address these issues a new initiative has been launched under the WCRP auspices, referred to as Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment, or CORDEX. The aim of CORDEX is to bring together the international RCD community to assess different RCD techniques, recommend best practices and produce a next generation set of RCD-based projections of climate change for regions world-wide. This will involve close interactions between the RCD, global climate modeling, and end users communities. This paper will describe the motivations and design of the first phase of the CORDEX framework, which has a priority focus on Africa, along with the steps that are envisioned to achieve the CORDEX goals within the time framework of the Fifth IPCC assessment report. Some early results for Africa will be presented, together with a short summary of the CORDEX activities in Asia, Americas and other regions of the world.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

2012-12-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

2012-01-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouyère, Serge; Carabin, Guy; Dassargues, Alain

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels. Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin d'étudier l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques d'une manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de l'IPCC, l'approche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer l'impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l'eau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme d'impact du changement climatique sur l'évolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits d'eau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique. Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

Undergraduate Research Experience in Ocean/Marine Science (URE-OMS) with African Student Component

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). RESULTS Temporal and Spatial Variations of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll a in Coastal Waters of...Duck, North Carolina [4] Climate change has affected the North Carolina coastal environments and coastal hazards have already taken place in the area...from geological materials (sands, dead and/or bleached corals ...etc) shifted by waves, tides, and currents moving sediments and eroding shorelines

Climate Change and Future World

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

the distribution of fish 8 species.37 Increasing ocean acidification is threatening coral reefs that play an important role in mitigating the...into space the power that has not been used. This enormous thermal machine, that is the climate system, is constituted by the atmosphere, oceans ...and extension of the Arctic ice and mountain glaciers in the northern hemisphere are reducing. According to the IPCC, the 5 Arctic Ocean could be

Strategies to compensate for the effects of nonresponse on forest carbon baseline estimates from the national forest inventory of the United States

Treesearch

Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark A. Hatfield

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystem carbon (C) stocks and stock change in the United States (US) have been documented using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) procedures and guidance with 1990 as a baseline reference for all United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reports. In the US, estimates of forest C stocks and stock change are obtained from data...

Earth radiation balance as observed and represented in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Schär, Christoph; Loeb, Norman; König-Langlo, Gert

2014-05-01

The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the Earth radiation balance. Despite of its key role in the context of climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of the magnitudes of its different components, and its representation in climate models. While the net radiative energy flows in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere are now known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES and SORCE, the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth's surface is less well determined. Accordingly, the magnitudes of the components of the surface energy balance have recently been controversially disputed, and potential inconsistencies between the estimated magnitudes of the global energy and water cycle have been emphasized. Here we summarize this discussion as presented in Chapter 2.3 of the 5th IPCC assessment report (AR5). In this context we made an attempt to better constrain the magnitudes of the surface radiative components with largest uncertainties. In addition to satellite observations, we thereby made extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the radiation balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combined these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for AR5 (CMIP5) to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean values of downward surface solar and thermal radiation near 185 and 342 Wm-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations (Wild et al. 2013). These estimates are on the order of 10 Wm-2 lower and higher, respectively, than in some of the previous global energy balance assessments, including those presented in previous IPCC reports. It is encouraging that these estimates, which make full use of the information contained in the surface networks, coincide within 2 Wm-2 with the latest satellite-derived estimates (Kato et al. 2013), which are completely independently determined. This enhances confidence in these recent surface flux estimates. IPCC AR5 further presents increasing evidence from direct observations that the surface radiative fluxes undergo significant changes on decadal timescales, not only in their thermal components as expected from the increasing greenhouse effect, but also in the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth surface. In the thermal range, surface observations suggest an overall increase of downward thermal radiation in line with latest projections from the CMIP5 models and expectations from an increasing greenhouse effect. On the other hand the strong decadal changes in surface solar radiation seen in the observations ("dimming/brightening") are not fully captured by current climate models. These decadal changes in surface solar radiation may largely affect various aspects of climate change. Selected related references: Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F. Dentener, E. Dlugokencky, D. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B. Soden, P. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kato, S., Loeb, N.G., Rose, F.G., Doelling, D.R., Rutan, D.A., Caldwell, T.E., Yu, L.S, and Weller, R.A., 2013: Surface irradiances consistent with CERES-derived top-of-atmosphere shortwave and longwave irradiances. Journal of Climate 26 (9):2719-2740. doi:Doi 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00436.1 Wild, M., 2012: New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance. Atmospheric Environment, 55, 366-367. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1 Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E.G., and König-Langlo, G., 2013: The global energy balance from a surface perspective, Clim. Dyn., 40, 3107-3134, Doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8.

Biomes computed from simulated climatologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Claussen, M.; Esch, M.

1994-01-01

The biome model of Prentice et al. is used to predict global patterns of potential natural plant formations, or biomes, from climatologies simulated by ECHAM, a model used for climate simulations at the Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie. This study undertaken in order to show the advantage of this biome model in diagnosing the performance of a climate model and assessing effects of past and future climate changes predicted by a climate model. Good overall agreement is found between global patterns of biomes computed from observed and simulated data of present climate. But there are also major discrepancies indicated by a differencemore » in biomes in Australia, in the Kalahari Desert, and in the Middle West of North America. These discrepancies can be traced back to in simulated rainfall as well as summer or winter temperatures. Global patterns of biomes computed from an ice age simulation reveal that North America, Europe, and Siberia should have been covered largely by tundra and taiga, whereas only small differences are for the tropical rain forests. A potential northeast shift of biomes is expected from a simulation with enhanced CO{sub 2} concentration according to the IPCC Scenario A. Little change is seen in the tropical rain forest and the Sahara. Since the biome model used is not capable of predicting chances in vegetation patterns due to a rapid climate change, the latter simulation to be taken as a prediction of chances in conditions favourable for the existence of certain biomes, not as a reduction of a future distribution of biomes. 15 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs.« less

How IPCC Science-Policy Interactions Shape Its Policymaker Summaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, K. J.; Freeman, P. T.; Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.

2016-12-01

Government approval is a defining feature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. In plenary sessions with scientist authors, IPCC member governments discuss and agree each sentence of every report's summary for policymakers (SPM). This consensus-based approval builds joint ownership of scientific knowledge by both scientists and governments. The approval process and its resulting SPM revisions have received extensive attention in published anecdotes and perspectives, but without comprehensive evaluation to date. We present the results of an in-depth analysis of IPCC SPM revisions, providing an evidence basis for understanding a complex science-policy interaction. Revisions resulting from governmental review and approval expand SPMs. SPM text lengthens by 17 to 53% in recent assessment summaries. Political sensitivities and associated failures of consensus have led to prominent exceptions resulting in SPM contractions. Contrasting recent assertions, we find IPCC SPMs to be as readable as other professionally edited assessment summaries, for multiple measures of reading ease. Across metrics, some SPMs, but not all, become more readable through the revision process. We additionally examine each revision in an SPM for which we have deep familiarity. Most of the SPM's revisions occur prior to the in-person government-approval session, and they emphasize different purposes compared to revisions made during the approval session. Revisions prior to the in-person session largely pertain to clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation, whereas the subsequent in-person government-approval revisions place more emphasis on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. The value added in the IPCC government-approval process emerges through multiple stages of revision and approval, as scientists and governments together navigate a complex science-policy interaction.

On the use of Empirical Data to Downscale Non-scientific Scepticism About Results From Complex Physical Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germer, S.; Bens, O.; Hüttl, R. F.

2008-12-01

The scepticism of non-scientific local stakeholders about results from complex physical based models is a major problem concerning the development and implementation of local climate change adaptation measures. This scepticism originates from the high complexity of such models. Local stakeholders perceive complex models as black-box models, as it is impossible to gasp all underlying assumptions and mathematically formulated processes at a glance. The use of physical based models is, however, indispensible to study complex underlying processes and to predict future environmental changes. The increase of climate change adaptation efforts following the release of the latest IPCC report indicates that the communication of facts about what has already changed is an appropriate tool to trigger climate change adaptation. Therefore we suggest increasing the practice of empirical data analysis in addition to modelling efforts. The analysis of time series can generate results that are easier to comprehend for non-scientific stakeholders. Temporal trends and seasonal patterns of selected hydrological parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels and river discharge) can be identified and the dependence of trends and seasonal patters to land use, topography and soil type can be highlighted. A discussion about lag times between the hydrological parameters can increase the awareness of local stakeholders for delayed environment responses.

Productivity of Rice Grown on Arsenic Contaminated Soil under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Plaganas, M.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the global population. In South and Southeast Asia, native soil arsenic coupled with arsenic-laden irrigation water result in paddy soils having arsenic levels that decrease the quality and productivity of rice and thus compromise food security worldwide. However, it remains unknown how climate change will affect the accumulation of arsenic in rice plants, specifically grain, grown in arsenic-bearing paddy soils. We hypothesize that the bioavailability of arsenic in the paddy soil will increase with climate change leading to an even sharper decrease of rice productivity and quality than presently estimated. In order to shed light on this question, we performed greenhouse studies to simulate today's climate condition in Asian paddy soils and compare it to the conditions projected for the year 2100. We investigated climate conditions estimated in the 5th assessment report of the IPCC1, indicating up to a 5°C increase in temperature and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Under these current and future climate conditions, we examined rice physiology including plant height and biomass, leaf chlorophyll content, grain number and weight as well as contents of accumulated arsenic, and its species in the different rice tissues. We further correlate different geochemical parameters of the soil, including arsenic and other relevant metal dynamics in the soil, to plant response. In sum, our analyses will allow us to better predict the productivity of rice and its grain quality in a future climate condition, and may help to take precautions to avoid a global food crisis, particularly for South and Southeast Asia where rice is a daily staple. 1IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis.

Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century (PAGE21): A very large international and integrated project to measure the impact of permafrost degradation on the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantuit, Hugues; Boike, Julia; Dahms, Melanie; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang

2013-04-01

The northern permafrost region contains approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and more than twice as much as is contained in the current atmos-pheric carbon pool. The sheer size of this carbon pool, together with the large amplitude of predicted arctic climate change im-plies that there is a high potential for global-scale feedbacks from arctic climate change if these carbon reservoirs are desta-bilized. Nonetheless, significant gaps exist in our current state of knowledge that prevent us from producing accurate assess-ments of the vulnerability of the arctic permafrost to climate change, or of the implications of future climate change for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specifically: • Our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes at play in permafrost areas is still insuffi-cient in some key aspects • Size estimates for the high latitude continental carbon and nitrogen stocks vary widely between regions and research groups. • The representation of permafrost-related processes in global climate models still tends to be rudimentary, and is one reason for the frequently poor perform-ances of climate models at high latitudes. The key objectives of PAGE21 are: • to improve our understanding of the processes affect-ing the size of the arctic permafrost carbon and nitro-gen pools through detailed field studies and monitor-ing, in order to quantify their size and their vulnerability to climate change, • to produce, assemble and assess high-quality datasets in order to develop and evaluate representations of permafrost and related processes in global models, • to improve these models accordingly, • to use these models to reduce the uncertainties in feed-backs from arctic permafrost to global change, thereby providing the means to assess the feasibility of stabili-zation scenarios, and • to ensure widespread dissemination of our results in order to provide direct input into the ongoing debate on climate-change mitigation. The concept of PAGE21 is to directly address these questions through a close interaction between monitoring activities, proc-ess studies and modeling on the pertinent temporal and spatial scales. Field sites have been selected to cover a wide range of environmental conditions for the validation of large scale mod-els, the development of permafrost monitoring capabilities, the study of permafrost processes, and for overlap with existing monitoring programs. PAGE21 will contribute to upgrading the project sites with the objective of providing a measurement baseline, both for process studies and for modeling programs. PAGE21 is determined to break down the traditional barriers in permafrost sciences between observational and model-supported site studies and large-scale climate modeling. Our concept for the interaction between site-scale studies and large-scale modeling is to establish and maintain a direct link be-tween these two areas for developing and evaluating, on all spatial scales, the land-surface modules of leading European global climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), designed to inform the IPCC process. The timing of this project is such that the main scientific results from PAGE21, and in particular the model-based assessments will build entirely on new outputs and results from the CMIP5 Climate Model Intercomparison Project designed to inform the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. However, PAGE21 is designed to leave a legacy that will en-dure beyond the lifetime of the projections that it produces. This legacy will comprise • an improved understanding of the key processes and parameters that determine the vulnerability of arctic permafrost to climate change, • the production of a suite of major European coupled climate models including detailed and validated repre-sentations of permafrost-related processes, that will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections pro-duced well beyond the lifetime of PAGE21, and • the training of a new generation of permafrost scien-tists who will bridge the long-standing gap between permafrost field science and global climate modeling, for the long-term benefit of science and society.

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

PubMed Central

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-01-01

Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

Radiative forcing of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanswamy, V.; Shine, Keith; Leovy, Conway; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Rodhe, Henning; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Ding, M.; Lelieveld, Joseph; Edmonds, Jae A.; Mccormick, M. Patrick

1991-01-01

An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, T. R.; Townshend, I.; Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S. A.

2013-12-01

While there is a growing recognition of the impact that climate change may have on human development, there has been a shift in focus from an impacts-led assessment approach towards a vulnerability-led assessment approach. This research operationalizes the IPCC's definition of vulnerability in a sub-national assessment to understand how different factors that shape vulnerability to climate change vary spatially across rural Nicaragua. The research utilizes the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' (FAO UN) CropWat model to evaluate how the annual yield of two of Nicaragua's staple crops may change under projected changes in temperature and precipitation. This analysis of agricultural sensitivity under exposure to climate change is then overlain with an indicator-based assessment of adaptive capacity in rural Nicaraguan farming households. Adaptive capacity was evaluated using household survey data from the 2001 National Household Survey on Living Standards Measurement, which was provided to us by the FAO UN. The result is a map representing current vulnerability to future climate change, and can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions in rural Nicaragua.

Aerosol direct, indirect, semidirect, and surface albedo effects from sector contributions based on the IPCC AR5 emissions for preindustrial and present-day conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m2, with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m2). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m2) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m2) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m2), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

Aerosol Direct, Indirect, Semidirect, and Surface Albedo Effects from Sector Contributions Based on the IPCC AR5 Emissions for Preindustrial and Present-day Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, Susanne E.; Menon, Surabi

2012-01-01

The anthropogenic increase in aerosol concentrations since preindustrial times and its net cooling effect on the atmosphere is thought to mask some of the greenhouse gas-induced warming. Although the overall effect of aerosols on solar radiation and clouds is most certainly negative, some individual forcing agents and feedbacks have positive forcing effects. Recent studies have tried to identify some of those positive forcing agents and their individual emission sectors, with the hope that mitigation policies could be developed to target those emitters. Understanding the net effect of multisource emitting sectors and the involved cloud feedbacks is very challenging, and this paper will clarify forcing and feedback effects by separating direct, indirect, semidirect and surface albedo effects due to aerosols. To this end, we apply the Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model including detailed aerosol microphysics to examine aerosol impacts on climate by isolating single emission sector contributions as given by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) emission data sets developed for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5. For the modeled past 150 years, using the climate model and emissions from preindustrial times to present-day, the total global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing is -0.6 W/m(exp 2), with the largest contribution from the direct effect (-0.5 W/m(exp 2)). Aerosol-induced changes on cloud cover often depends on cloud type and geographical region. The indirect (includes only the cloud albedo effect with -0.17 W/m(exp 2)) and semidirect effects (-0.10 W/m(exp 2)) can be isolated on a regional scale, and they often have opposing forcing effects, leading to overall small forcing effects on a global scale. Although the surface albedo effects from aerosols are small (0.016 W/m(exp 2)), triggered feedbacks on top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing can be 10 times larger. Our results point out that each emission sector has varying impacts by geographical region. For example, the single sector most responsible for a net positive radiative forcing is the transportation sector in the United States, agricultural burning and transportation in Europe, and the domestic emission sector in Asia. These sectors are attractive mitigation targets.

[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhao, Ze Fang; Wei, Hai Yan; Guo, Yan Long; Gu, Wei

2016-11-18

This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.

A new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribes, Aurélien; Zwiers, Francis W.; Azaïs, Jean-Marc; Naveau, Philippe

2017-01-01

We propose here a new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution that is based on additive decomposition and simple hypothesis testing. Most current statistical methods for detection and attribution rely on linear regression models where the observations are regressed onto expected response patterns to different external forcings. These methods do not use physical information provided by climate models regarding the expected response magnitudes to constrain the estimated responses to the forcings. Climate modelling uncertainty is difficult to take into account with regression based methods and is almost never treated explicitly. As an alternative to this approach, our statistical model is only based on the additivity assumption; the proposed method does not regress observations onto expected response patterns. We introduce estimation and testing procedures based on likelihood maximization, and show that climate modelling uncertainty can easily be accounted for. Some discussion is provided on how to practically estimate the climate modelling uncertainty based on an ensemble of opportunity. Our approach is based on the " models are statistically indistinguishable from the truth" paradigm, where the difference between any given model and the truth has the same distribution as the difference between any pair of models, but other choices might also be considered. The properties of this approach are illustrated and discussed based on synthetic data. Lastly, the method is applied to the linear trend in global mean temperature over the period 1951-2010. Consistent with the last IPCC assessment report, we find that most of the observed warming over this period (+0.65 K) is attributable to anthropogenic forcings (+0.67 ± 0.12 K, 90 % confidence range), with a very limited contribution from natural forcings (-0.01± 0.02 K).

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Science Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruning, Claus; Ko, Malcolm; Lee, David; Miake-Lye, Richard

2006-01-01

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. The questions may take the form of what are the environmental benefits that would result if goals are achieved, what are the consequences for other aviation pollutants, and whether tools exist to evaluate the trade-off. In addition to this documents, presentations will be made at the meeting to illustrate current developing views on these subjects. To facilitate studies on trade-offs among environmental impacts from aviation, one must start with scientific investigations that quantify the impacts. A second step is to select representative metrics with policy relevance so that diverse impacts can be put on the same common scale. The IPCC Special Report on Aviation (IPCC, 1999) serves as an excellent example of the first step. The report was produced by IPCC's Working Group 1, whose mandate is to provide the assessment of the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. An example of the second step is Witt et al. (2005), a study commissioned by the Environment DG of the European Commission. Within the context of CAEP, step 1 is aligned with the responsibilities of the Research Focal Points, while step 2 is more related to activities of FESG. These steps are likely to be iterative as proposed policy options will raise new science questions, and new science will expand or limit policy options. Past experiences show that clearly defined policy-related scientific needs will help focus the scientific community to marshal their intellects to provide the needed answers.

Vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in harmful algal bloom distribution in response to climate change: projections based on model analysis.

PubMed

Glibert, Patricia M; Icarus Allen, J; Artioli, Yuri; Beusen, Arthur; Bouwman, Lex; Harle, James; Holmes, Robert; Holt, Jason

2014-12-01

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), those proliferations of algae that can cause fish kills, contaminate seafood with toxins, form unsightly scums, or detrimentally alter ecosystem function have been increasing in frequency, magnitude, and duration worldwide. Here, using a global modeling approach, we show, for three regions of the globe, the potential effects of nutrient loading and climate change for two HAB genera, pelagic Prorocentrum and Karenia, each with differing physiological characteristics for growth. The projections (end of century, 2090-2100) are based on climate change resulting from the A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model (IPCC, IPSL-CM4), applied in a coupled oceanographic-biogeochemical model, combined with a suite of assumed physiological 'rules' for genera-specific bloom development. Based on these models, an expansion in area and/or number of months annually conducive to development of these HABs along the NW European Shelf-Baltic Sea system and NE Asia was projected for both HAB genera, but no expansion (Prorocentrum spp.), or actual contraction in area and months conducive for blooms (Karenia spp.), was projected in the SE Asian domain. The implications of these projections, especially for Northern Europe, are shifts in vulnerability of coastal systems to HAB events, increased regional HAB impacts to aquaculture, increased risks to human health and ecosystems, and economic consequences of these events due to losses to fisheries and ecosystem services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Bowden, J. H.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Herwehe, J. A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2010-12-01

The WRF Model is being used at the U.S. EPA for dynamical downscaling of the NASA/GISS ModelE fields to assess regional impacts of climate change in the United States. The WRF model has been successfully linked to the ModelE fields in their raw hybrid vertical coordinate, and continuous, multi-year WRF downscaling simulations have been performed. WRF will be used to downscale decadal time slices of ModelE for recent past, current, and future climate as the simulations being conducted for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report become available. This presentation will focus on the sensitivity to interior nudging within the RCM. The use of interior nudging for downscaled regional climate simulations has been somewhat controversial over the past several years but has been recently attracting attention. Several recent studies that have used reanalysis (i.e., verifiable) fields as a proxy for GCM input have shown that interior nudging can be beneficial toward achieving the desired downscaled fields. In this study, the value of nudging will be shown using fields from ModelE that are downscaled using WRF. Several different methods of nudging are explored, and it will be shown that the method of nudging and the choices made with respect to how nudging is used in WRF are critical to balance the constraint of ModelE against the freedom of WRF to develop its own fields.

Exploring eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under climate and land-use changes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D.; Moghim, S.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Levine, N. M.; Longo, M.; McKnight, S.; Wang, J.; Moorcroft, P. R.

2012-12-01

Deforestation and drought have imposed regional-scale perturbations onto Amazonian ecosystems and are predicted to cause larger negative impacts on the Amazonian ecosystems and associated regional carbon dynamics in the 21st century. However, global climate models (GCMs) vary greatly in their projections of future climate change in Amazonia, giving rise to uncertainty in the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century. In this study, we explore the possible eco-hydrological consequences of the Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate and land-use changes in the 21st century using two state-of-the-art terrestrial ecosystem models—Ecosystem Demography Model 2.1(ED2.1) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator model (IBIS)—driven by three representative, bias-corrected climate projections from three IPCC GCMs (NCARPCM1, NCARCCSM3 and HadCM3), coupled with two land-use change scenarios (a business-as-usual and a strict governance scenario). We also analyze the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change and fire in driving the projected composition and structure of the Amazonian ecosystems. Our results show that CO2 fertilization enhances vegetation productivity and above-ground biomass (AGB) in the region, while land-use change and fire cause AGB loss and the replacement of forests by the savanna-like vegetation. The impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected precipitation changes in the region. In particular, when intensified water stress is superimposed on unregulated deforestation, both ecosystem models predict large-scale dieback of Amazonian rainforests.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A common fallacy in climate model evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annan, J. D.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Tachiiri, K.

2012-04-01

We discuss the assessment of model ensembles such as that arising from the CMIP3 coordinated multi-model experiments. An important aspect of this is not merely the closeness of the models to observations in absolute terms but also the reliability of the ensemble spread as an indication of uncertainty. In this context, it has been widely argued that the multi-model ensemble of opportunity is insufficiently broad to adequately represent uncertainties regarding future climate change. For example, the IPCC AR4 summarises the consensus with the sentence: "Those studies also suggest that the current AOGCMs may not cover the full range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity." Similar claims have been made in the literature for other properties of the climate system, including the transient climate response and efficiency of ocean heat uptake. Comparison of model outputs with observations of the climate system forms an essential component of model assessment and is crucial for building our confidence in model predictions. However, methods for undertaking this comparison are not always clearly justified and understood. Here we show that the popular approach which forms the basis for the above claims, of comparing the ensemble spread to a so-called "observationally-constrained pdf", can be highly misleading. Such a comparison will almost certainly result in disagreement, but in reality tells us little about the performance of the ensemble. We present an alternative approach based on an assessment of the predictive performance of the ensemble, and show how it may lead to very different, and rather more encouraging, conclusions. We additionally outline some necessary conditions for an ensemble (or more generally, a probabilistic prediction) to be challenged by an observation.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2009-05-01

Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be used as a case study for testing the applicability the Linearization Model approach. This model has been applied to the various world regions by D. Rutledge (Cal Tech). The regions are summed to estimate global production. The conclusion is that the world's coal resources may be much less (maybe by 10 times) than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. Several research groups, including K. Aleklett (Uppsala), the Energy Watch Group and the Institute of Energy (IFE) and have independently reached the same conclusion. Simulations by D. Rutledge of atmospheric CO2 levels, using these values of ultimate oil and coal production as an input, suggest that atmospheric CO2 could reach maximum concentrations as low as 450 ppm. While some of these conclusions are controversial, available data clearly suggest that resource limitation should be given serious consideration in future climate change scenarios. There are also serious implications for economic recovery and energy security as well.

Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and ...

National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

Carbon footprint of automotive ignition coil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Huey-Ling; Chen, Chih-Ming; Sun, Chin-Huang; Lin, Hung-Di

2015-07-01

In recent years, environmental issues, such as climate change and global warming due to the excessive development of industry, have attracted increasing attention of citizens worldwide. It is known that CO2 accounts for the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Therefore, how to reduce CO2 emissions during the life cycle of a product to lessen its impact on environment is an important topic in the industrial society. Furthermore, it is also of great significance to cut down the required energy so as to lower its production costs during the manufacturing process nowadays. This study presents the carbon footprint of an automotive ignition coil and its partial materials are defined to explore their carbon emissions and environmental impact. The model IPCC GWP100a calculates potential global greenhouse effect by converting them into CO2 equivalents. In this way, the overall carbon footprint of an ignition coil can be explored. By using IPCC GWP100a, the results display that the shell has the most carbon emissions. The results can help the industry reduce the carbon emissions of an ignition coil product.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Climate change and ecosystem services: The contribution of and impacts on federal public lands in the United States

Treesearch

Valerie Esposito; Spencer Phillips; Roelof Boumans; Azur Moulaert; Jennifer Boggs

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) reports a likely 2 °C to 4.5 °C temperature rise in the upcoming decades. This warming is likely to affect ecosystems and their ability to provide services that benefit human well-being. Ecosystem services valuation (ESV), meanwhile, has emerged as a way to recognize the economic value embodied in these...

Creating "Intelligent" Climate Model Ensemble Averages Using a Process-Based Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. C.; Taylor, P. C.

2014-12-01

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables—e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

2012-01-01

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Simple Climate Model Evaluation Using Impulse Response Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarber, A.; Hartin, C.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

Simple climate models (SCMs) are central tools used to incorporate climate responses into human-Earth system modeling. SCMs are computationally inexpensive, making them an ideal tool for a variety of analyses, including consideration of uncertainty. Despite their wide use, many SCMs lack rigorous testing of their fundamental responses to perturbations. Here, following recommendations of a recent National Academy of Sciences report, we compare several SCMs (Hector-deoclim, MAGICC 5.3, MAGICC 6.0, and the IPCC AR5 impulse response function) to diagnose model behavior and understand the fundamental system responses within each model. We conduct stylized perturbations (emissions and forcing/concentration) of three different chemical species: CO2, CH4, and BC. We find that all 4 models respond similarly in terms of overall shape, however, there are important differences in the timing and magnitude of the responses. For example, the response to a BC pulse differs over the first 20 years after the pulse among the models, a finding that is due to differences in model structure. Such perturbation experiments are difficult to conduct in complex models due to internal model noise, making a direct comparison with simple models challenging. We can, however, compare the simplified model response from a 4xCO2 step experiment to the same stylized experiment carried out by CMIP5 models, thereby testing the ability of SCMs to emulate complex model results. This work allows an assessment of how well current understanding of Earth system responses are incorporated into multi-model frameworks by way of simple climate models.

PERSPECTIVE: Keeping a closer eye on fossil fuel CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Peter F.

2009-12-01

Peter F Nelson The world is watching expectantly as the clock winds down towards the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15; http://en.cop15.dk/) to be held 7-18 December 2009 in Copenhagen. While most are now convinced of the need for a strong and concerted response to the climate challenge, the exact nature and extent of that response remains uncertain. There is evidence (Barnett 2009) that current estimates of emissions now exceed all but the most extreme emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If that increase in emissions persists then temperature increases of 4 °C by 2060 have been predicted (Barnett 2009). An inevitable result of the potential for such extreme climate change is to advance the need for multiple adaptation strategies to decision making about, for example, infrastructure, urban planning and forest management. These strategies need to do more than incremental adaptation (Barnett 2009); instead transformative approaches may be required to adapt. The timing of the response is also proving to be a critical determining factor in the effectiveness of global actions. Using a simple conceptual model of emissions, Vaughan and co-workers (Vaughan et al 2009) show that avoiding dangerous climate change is more effective if such action begins early. Early action is also more effective than acting more aggressively later (Vaughan et al 2009). Uncertainties, although reduced, are still significant in the science of climate change. The interactions between control of particulate air pollutants and climate change are particularly challenging (Arneth et al 2009, Shindell et al 2009) but many other uncertainties require continuing research. The scientific uncertainties are only one aspect of an intense interdisciplinary, political, economic and cultural dialogue. It is clear that political will, economic interest, target setting for emissions reductions, adaptation, technology and financing (Pan 2009) will all have a major influence on progress to an international agreement. It is important that the political challenges are not underestimated. Long-term observers of the negotiations necessary for global agreements (Inman 2009) are pessimistic about the chances for success at COP15, and argue that agreements between smaller groups of countries may be more effective. China and other developing countries clearly expect greater emission cuts by developed nations as a condition for a successful deal (Pan 2009). Conversely, the constraints on US climate policies are considerable, notably those imposed by fears that an international agreement that does not include equitable emission control measures for developing countries like China and India, will compromise the agreement and reduce its effectiveness (Skodvin and Andresen 2009). In this context the need for earlier, and more reliable, information on emissions is a high priority. Myhre and coworkers (Myhre et al 2009) provide an efficient method for calculating global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by combining industry statistics with data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC; http://cdiac.ornl.gov/). Recent analyses of carbon dioxide emission data show a worrying acceleration in emissions, beyond even the most extreme IPCC projections, but are based largely on the CDIAC which gives information about emissions released two to three years before real time (Canadell et al 2007, Raupach et al 2007). The approach used by Myhre et al (2009) uses BP annual statistics of fossil fuel consumption and has a much shorter lag, of the order of six months. Of significant concern is that their analysis of the data also reveals that the recent strong increase in fossil fuel CO2 is largely driven by an increase in emissions from coal, most significantly in China. By contrast, emissions from oil and gas continue to follow longer-term historical trends. Earlier and accurate data on CO2 emissions is important for a range of reasons. It allows comparison with the scenarios developed by the IPCC; uncertainties in emission scenarios are one of the major sources of uncertainties in temperature projections, particularly at longer time scales, where temperature projections are increasingly dependent on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007). There have also been recent suggestions (Le Quere et al 2007) of a weakening of the oceanic sink for CO2, and earlier information on emission pathways will be important for testing this hypothesis. Some observers (Levi 2009) believe that the best outcome from COP15 may be an agreement on measurement, reporting and verification. While this may seem like a modest ambition, progress in this area is essential to a successful climate change measure and to compliance with any international agreement. As Levi (2009) points out, `such verification will help make it more politically feasible to undertake similar emissions-cutting actions elsewhere, including in the United States'. The approach of Myhre et al is a very useful tool in such independent verification. References Arneth A, Unger N, Kulmala M and Andreae M O 2009 Clean the air, heat the planet? Science 326 672-3 Barnett A 2009 No easy way out Nature Reports Climate Change 3 128-9 Canadell J G, Le Quere C, Raupach M R, Field C B, Buitenhuis, E T, Ciais P, Conway T J, Gillett N P, Houghton R A and Marland G 2007 Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 18866-70 Inman M 2009 The climate change game Nature Reports Climate Change 3 130-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC) 104pp Le Quere C, Rodenbeck C, Buitenhuis E T, Conway T J, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett N and Heimann M 2007 Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Science 316 1735-8 Levi M A 2009 Copenhagen's inconvenient truth: how to salvage the climate conference Foreign Affairs 92-103 Myhre G, Alterskjaer K and Lowe D 2009 A fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 4 034012 Pan J 2009 China expects leadership from rich nations Nature 461 1055 Raupach M R, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell J G, Klepper G and Field C B 2007 Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 10288-93 Shindell D T, Faluvegi G, Koch D M, Schmidt G A, Unger N and Bauer S E 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science 326 716-8 Skodvin T and Andresen S 2009 An agenda for change in US climate policies? Presidential ambitions and congressional powers Int. Environ. Agreements: Politics Law Econ. 9 263-80 Vaughan N E, Lenton T M and Shepherd J G 2009 Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required Climatic Change 96 29-43

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately any IPCC statements. As this perspective article is being written, the UK (and worldwide) is facing almost unprecedented increases in the cost of petrol and diesel, and with the transport sector lobbying hard for tax incentives/rebates to reduce fuel costs. In the middle of this, some government ministers are suggesting that from the climate change angle, lower dependence on fossil fuels (forced on the population by such higher prices) might be a good thing. But their voices are drowned by other ministers saying that such an approach is deeply unpopular with the electorate—to what extent, therefore, is the tabloid press responsible for the lack of urgency related to potential future damage to the planet? How else are people informed about the climate change debate? Aside from TV and radio, popular science books are usually a good source of information. However a viewing of the environmental sciences department in any bookshop at present will reveal how remarkably polarized the climate change debate is becoming. Some books have very alarming titles; for instance Pearce (2007) is titled 'The Last Generation: How Nature will take her Revenge for Climate Change'. Meanwhile other books are appearing with titles suggesting that the entire issue is given far too much emphasis, is used as a means for politicians to keep society fearful (and presumably, therefore, more controllable), or present a view that the IPCC system is scientifically deeply flawed. Examples of these include Spencer (2008) titled 'Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor', Booker and North (2007) titled 'Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth' and two books by Michaels—Michaels (2004) 'Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media' and Michaels (2005) 'Shattered Consensus: The True state of Global Warming'. Both polarized views could be argued as detrimental to addressing possible dangerous climate change. The first argument (i.e. 'we are doomed') gives the impression that climate change is so serious, and possibly unstoppable in the immediate future, that this could lead readers to decide there is nothing that can be achieved on an individual basis—and yet any measure to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse concentrations will require changed behaviour regarding fossil fuel usage at the individual level. On the other hand, simply to ignore the effects of increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate system could lead the planet in to a highly undesirable 'dangerous' state, and one that is potentially difficult or impossible to reverse in reasonable timescales. Fortunately there are some books on the subject of climate change that do present the science without bias, such as 'Global Warming' by Houghton (2004). One new book of particular interest is that of Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor, whose recent publication on climate change (Lawson 2008) is titled 'An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming'. Lawson (2008) contains a range of very interesting and interlinked strands regarding the climate change debate. As with many books discussing technical matters, it is always of interest to first check the citations, and here it is comprehensive, up-to-date and certainly does not initially appear to be selective (this is also true of the two books by Michaels). This therefore creates what seems like a paradox. Given that so many of the key papers cited by Lawson (2008) form the backbone of current understanding of climate change, and many researchers quote these as reasons for concern regarding global warming, how is it that this book instead, concludes (see the dust cover) '… the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; … global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged to be'? What is the overall feeling after reading some of Lawson (2008)? Well first and foremost, we believe that although the use of literature is impressive, there appears to be a deliberate search for the remaining scientific uncertainty (i.e. issues freely acknowledged by climate change scientists as requiring refinement, but used in this book as a reason to doubt the entire scientific debate about global warming). On this basis, it is tempting therefore to just ignore this contribution to the debate, but a more positive approach is to re-address these uncertainties, and in the process generate more concise scientific understanding and presentation. Top of this list would be Lawson's key argument that global warming has stalled between the year 2001 and 2007—'there has been no further global warming since the turn of the century … which has occurred at a time when global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever'. Lawson then cites, correctly, Smith et al (2007) but who in fact point out that this is almost certainly due to internal variability and we may expect more warming from year 2009 onwards. Lawson concludes that such a 'resumption of warming' may or may not occur. In our view the climate modelling community should work hard to revisit and extend the work of Smith et al (2007), possibly applying their technique to multiple climate models. In parallel there is a desperate need for better explanation by researchers that, even against a background warming trend, natural variability will mean that on a year-to-year basis, warming will not necessarily be monotonic. Some of Lawson's other arguments can be more readily rebutted. Two issues he presents are that trends in global temperature could be a function of varying sunspot activity, and that the global warming measured during the second half of the 20th Century could be a consequence of urbanization around measurement stations (the 'heat island' effect). Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Parker (2006) provide highly detailed and convincing reasons why, respectively, these two arguments cannot explain the warming trend seen in measurements during the last fifty years—these two papers require more extensive circulation. Lawson attacks the IPCC panel as changing from a 'fact-finding and analytical exercise' in to 'something more like a politically correct alarmist pressure group'. This is particularly unfortunate and is not consistent with the facts. For example Stott et al (2000), using statistical 'detection and attribution' analyses, utilized the spatial patterns observable in the temperature record to tease apart natural oscillations from those caused by human adjustments to atmospheric composition. This underpinned in part the statement in the 3rd IPCC Assessment (IPCC 2001) that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. It should be noted that all such analyses require disproving of the null hypthoesis (i.e. humans have no influence), and to a very high level of statistical confidence. In other words, the IPCC report depends heavily on research scientists whose starting point is actually that higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations (most notably CO2) have had no effect on surface temperatures, unless there is significant evidence to the contrary. At some points, Lawson cannot be taken seriously. He points out (correctly) that CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases without which life would be unable to survive. However, this is then used to state that 'to describe the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as pollution is as absurd as it would be to describe the clouds as pollution'. In fact most pollutants of the atmosphere are emitted from anthropogenic activity and through natural processes. The gases become pollutants by exceeding thresholds above which damage occurs—these basic principles are widely accepted in the scientific community. Hence there is still the requirement to explain in very general terms the role of near-stable (at century timescales) pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations in sustaining life (along with the other greenhouse gas concentrations), but how much higher values of CO2 could cause dangerous perturbation to the climate system. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) provide a valuable insight in to how climate change is presented in the media. As the general consensus among climate research scientists is that to avoid 'dangerous' climate change there is a requirement to make very large reductions in emissions and soon, then this will be politically difficult to achieve against such a backdrop of such press reporting denying the IPCC message. We have also used this perspective article to consider how the debate over climate change (as induced through anthropogenic emissions) is presented through popular science books. In some ways this is equally worrying—how is it that such polarized views can be presented in books frequently citing the same research papers? With significant public funds placed in climate change research, it might be expected that the public deserve more definitive answers. So the main question here is whether (a) there remains massive uncertainty in how raised atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will manifest themselves through changes to future climates, or, (b) is there selective interpretation of key research papers (and indeed the IPCC report). If the answer is (b)—and that is consistent with the evidence—then each scientific issue raised by the sceptics should be addressed. There are important steps in this direction. For example the Royal Society has on its web site specific answers to several of the commonly used misleading arguments. See http://royalsociety.org/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 a web page entitled 'Facts and fictions about climate change'. As governments struggle to balance issues of economic development, the ubiquitous use of fossil fuels, and the need for very large reductions in emissions to ultimately stabilise the climate at safe levels, then it is essential that those involved in climate change research keep a careful note of the portrayal of their research in the media. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) (and citations therein) make an important contribution to this process. Ultimately, of course, (for predictions corresponding to different prescribed emissions scenarios) we are working with an issue embedded in fundamental science. If newspapers and books take a sceptical angle, and through this force further reductions in uncertainty bounds surrounding available scientific understanding, then such reporting will have played a useful role, even if ultimately shown to be incorrect. But such refinement has to happen quickly—if a global consensus emerges, unchallenged, that climate change issues are being vastly overplayed (or worse are almost some form of hoax) then we could be 'sleep walking' towards eventual climatic disaster as a consequence of a 'business as usual' attitude to emissions. We believe the current debate to be vital. But ultimately, society requires a balanced presentation of the facts. It is unreasonable to expect the tabloid media to avoid oversimplification and sensational comments, but it is reasonable and necessary in support of the political process to present a balanced view, and to avoid systematic misrepresentation of the science in either direction. We believe the IPCC goes a long way towards achieving this—but there is still much to do. References Booker B and North R 2007 Scared to Death. From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth (London: Continuum) Boykoff M T and Mansfield M 2008 Ye Olde Hot Aire: reporting on human contributions to climate change in the UK tabloid press Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024002 Houghton J 2004 Global Warming (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed J T Houghton, Y Ding, D J Griggs, M Noguer, P J van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell and C A Johnson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor, and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Lawson N 2008 An Appeal to Reason: a Cool Look at Global Warming (London: Duckworth Overlook) Michaels P J 2004 Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (Washington: CATO Institute) Michaels P J (ed) 2005 Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield) Parker D E 2006 A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban J. Climate 19 2882 95 Pearce F 2007 The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change (London: Eden Project Books) Schellnhuber H J, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (ed) 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Sloan T and Wolfendale A W 2008 Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024001 Smith D M, Cusack S, Colman A W, Folland C K, Harris G R and Murphy J M 2007 Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model Science 317 796 9 Spencer C 2008 Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor (New York: Encounter Books) Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, Allen M R, Mitchell J F B and Jenkins G J 2000 External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcings Science 290 2133 7 Photo of Chris Huntingford Dr Chris Huntingford has a degree in mathematics from Cambridge University, and a PhD in fluid dynamics from the University of Oxford. Since 1993 he has worked at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formally the Institute of Hydrology), and has been mainly interested in the role of land atmosphere interactions within the global carbon cycle. Some of his activities involve collaboration with policymakers, and Chris is currently helping to understand what would happen in the world should potentially dangerous levels of climate change occur—and in particular how easy is it for the Earth System to return back to safe levels. Photo of David Fowler Professor David Fowler obtained a PhD in environmental physics from Nottingham University in 1976 and has worked for the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (previously Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) at the Edinburgh laboratory since 1975. David's research career has included work on all the major gaseous atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gases. He has also worked on the effects of pollutant gases on vegetation and soil and has been closely involved with the development of UK maps of the distribution of air pollutants. He chairs and sits on several international committees looking at air pollution within Europe. David has published over 300 scientific papers and book chapters. He was awarded an honorary professorship from the University of Nottingham in 1990 and elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1999 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 2002.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Evaluation of cloud fraction and its radiative effect simulated by IPCC AR4 global models against ARM surface observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Long, Charles N.; Wang, Hailong

2012-02-17

Cloud Fraction (CF) is the dominant modulator of radiative fluxes. In this study, we evaluate CF simulations in the IPCC AR4 GCMs against ARM ground measurements, with a focus on the vertical structure, total amount of cloud and its effect on cloud shortwave transmissivity, for both inter-model deviation and model-measurement discrepancy. Our intercomparisons of three CF or sky-cover related dataset reveal that the relative differences are usually less than 10% (5%) for multi-year monthly (annual) mean values, while daily differences are quite significant. The results also show that the model-observation and the inter-model deviations have a similar magnitude for themore » total CF (TCF) and the normalized cloud effect, and they are twice as large as the surface downward solar radiation and cloud transmissivity. This implies that the other cloud properties, such as cloud optical depth and height, have a similar magnitude of disparity to TCF among the GCMs, and suggests that a better agreement among the GCMs in solar radiative fluxes could be the result of compensating errors in either cloud vertical structure, cloud optical depth or cloud fraction. Similar deviation pattern between inter-model and model-measurement suggests that the climate models tend to generate larger bias against observations for those variables with larger inter-model deviation. The simulated TCF from IPCC AR4 GCMs are very scattered through all seasons over three ARM sites: Southern Great Plains (SGP), Manus, Papua New Guinea and North Slope of Alaska (NSA). The GCMs perform better at SGP than at Manus and NSA in simulating the seasonal variation and probability distribution of TCF; however, the TCF in these models is remarkably underpredicted and cloud transmissivity is less susceptible to the change of TCF than the observed at SGP. Much larger inter-model deviation and model bias are found over NSA than the other sites in estimating the TCF, cloud transmissivity and cloud-radiation interaction, suggesting that the Arctic region continues to challenge cloud simulations in climate models. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF and fail to capture the seasonal variation of CF at middle and low levels in the tropics. The high altitude CF is much larger in the GCMs than the observation and the inter-model variability of CF also reaches maximum at high levels in the tropics. Most of the GCMs tend to underpredict CF by 50-150% relative to the measurement average at low and middle levels over SGP. While the GCMs generally capture the maximum CF in the boundary layer and vertical variability, the inter-model deviation is largest near surface over the Arctic. The internal variability of CF simulated in ensemble runs with the same model is very minimal.« less

Low-warming Scenarios and their Approximation: Testing Emulation Performance for Average and Extreme Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Armbruster, A.

2017-12-01

Taking advantage of the availability of ensemble simulations under low-warming scenarios performed with NCAR-DOE CESM, we test the performance of established methods for climate model output emulation. The goal is to provide a green, yellow or red light to the large impact research community that may be interested in performing impact analysis using climate model output other than, or in conjunction with, CESM's, especially as the IPCC Special Report on the 1.5 target urgently calls for scientific contributions exploring the costs and benefits of attaining these ambitious goals. We test the performance of emulators of average temperature and precipitation - and their interannual variability - and we also explore the possibility of emulating indices of extremes (ETCCDI indices), devised to offer impact relevant information from daily output of temperature and precipitation. Different degrees of departure from the linearity assumed in these traditional emulation approaches are found across the various quantities considered, and across regions, highlighting different degrees of quality in the approximations, and therefore some challenges in the provision of climate change information for impact analysis under these new scenarios that not many models have thus far targeted through their simulations.

Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

2011-12-01

Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

Evaluation of CESM1 (WACCM) with Observations of Stratospheric Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnison, Doug; Froidevaux, Lucien; Garcia, Rolando; Fuller, Ryan

2017-04-01

The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used in this study. CESM1 (WACCM) includes a detailed representation of tropospheric through lower thermospheric chemistry and physical processes. Simulations for this work were based on scenarios defined by the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These scenarios included both free-running (FR) and specified-dynamics versions (SD) of CESM1 (WACCM). Comparisons were made with global monthly zonal mean stratospheric data records from satellite-based remote measurements created by the Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere (GOZCARDS) project. These data records were drawn from high quality measurements of stratospheric composition starting in 1979 for ozone and in the early 1990s for other species. We discuss stratospheric variability and trends through analyses of observed time series of ozone (O3), hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric acid (HNO3), and water vapor (H2O), and we contrast the fits from the FR and SD model versions. Conclusions from this work have aided in the development of a new version of CESM (WACCM) that will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) assessment.

Effects of global climate change on maize volatile production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] are projected to have critical impacts on precipitation patterns, potentially leading to a dramatic increase in the frequency and duration of drought across the North American Corn Belt and other agriculturally relevant areas around the world (IPCC2007...

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration with GIZ, UNFCCC, World Bank, and Climate Analytics.

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology - a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971-2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021-2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes - that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists' demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

A correction in the CDM methodological tool for estimating methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites.

PubMed

Santos, M M O; van Elk, A G P; Romanel, C

2015-12-01

Solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) - especially landfills - are a significant source of methane, a greenhouse gas. Although having the potential to be captured and used as a fuel, most of the methane formed in SWDS is emitted to the atmosphere, mainly in developing countries. Methane emissions have to be estimated in national inventories. To help this task the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three sets of guidelines. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to assist the developed countries to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions by assisting other countries to achieve sustainable development while reducing emissions. Based on methodologies provided by the IPCC regarding SWDS, the CDM Executive Board has issued a tool to be used by project developers for estimating baseline methane emissions in their project activities - on burning biogas from landfills or on preventing biomass to be landfilled and so avoiding methane emissions. Some inconsistencies in the first two IPCC guidelines have already been pointed out in an Annex of IPCC latest edition, although with hidden details. The CDM tool uses a model for methane estimation that takes on board parameters, factors and assumptions provided in the latest IPCC guidelines, while using in its core equation the one of the second IPCC edition with its shortcoming as well as allowing a misunderstanding of the time variable. Consequences of wrong ex-ante estimation of baseline emissions regarding CDM project activities can be of economical or environmental type. Example of the first type is the overestimation of 18% in an actual project on biogas from landfill in Brazil that harms its developers; of the second type, the overestimation of 35% in a project preventing municipal solid waste from being landfilled in China, which harms the environment, not for the project per se but for the undue generated carbon credits. In a simulated landfill - the same amount of waste for 20 years -, the error would be an overestimation of 25% if the CDM project activity starts from the very first year or an underestimation of 15% if it starts just after the landfill closure. Therefore, a correction in the tool to calculate emissions from landfills as adopted by the CDM Executive Board is needed. Moreover, in countries not using the latest IPCC guidelines, which provides clear formulas to prevent misunderstandings, inventory compilers can also benefit from this paper by having more accurate results in national GHG inventories related to solid waste disposal, especially when increasing amounts of waste are landfilled, which is the case of the developing countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Translating Scientific Conclusions about Risk for Public Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, T. E.

2009-12-01

Climate change has been aptly described as a problem of risk management, yet the scientific community has not been successful in helping the public engage in risk management effectively. Behavioral science studies demonstrate that, while the public generally accepts the reality of anthropogenic climate change today, the immanence of impacts and scale of risk and opportunities for effective mitigation are poorly understood. Helping the public overcome these misperceptions and engage in decision-making about climate risks is, perhaps, the climate communication community’s most urgent priority. Scientific writing and graphic conventions are poorly suited for communicating with non-scientists. Using examples from the IPCC 4th Assessment, this session will demonstrate how specific conventions in science writing and graph making have obscured critical information about climate risks. The session will further demonstrate how reformatting the graphical information can create an exceptionally clear picture of where humanity stands and the implications of various emissions pathways for the future. Attendees will appreciate how presentations of science results can be tailored to answer the public’s questions more effectively by highlighting useful information in accurate, yet accessible ways. Decision-makers and the public urgently need information about climate impact risks and the consequences of various emissions pathways. Yet written and graphic descriptions from the IPCC and other assessment agencies burden non-scientists with multiple temperature baselines (e.g., pre-Industrial, mid-20th century, late 20th century, today), two confusingly similar measures for the key human contribution to atmospheric composition (CO2 and CO2-eq), and multiple ways of describing probability and certainty. The public is further confounded by inconsistent graphic conventions in scientific figures, including inconsistent color-coding, labeling, axis orientation, and treatment of uncertainty. Scientific figures tend to either include too many different messages or over-generalize, and neither approach helps non-scientists identify useful metrics and apply them to decision-making. This session will briefly illustrate each of these problematic scientific conventions and present a more effective translation of key IPCC figures in a new graphic format that help non-scientists appreciate our situation and opportunities. This translation has received positive reviews from informal learning institutions and will be useful to the broader science communication community.

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

New paleoclimatic database for the Iberian Peninsula since AD 1700 inferred from tree-ring records and documentary evidence: advances in temperature and drought variability reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; de Luis, Martín; Esper, Jan; Barriendos, Mariano; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Novak, Klemen; Longares, Luis Alberto; Martínez-del Castillo, Edurne; María Cuadrat, José

2017-04-01

A substantial increase of surface air temperatures in the upcoming decades, particularly significant in the Mediterranean basin, has been reported by the IPCC (IPCC, 2013). It is therefore particularly important to study past climate extremes and variability in this region, which will in turn support the accuracy of future climate scenarios. Yet, our knowledge of past climate variability and trends is limited by the shortage of instrumental data prior to the twentieth century, which prompts to the need of discovering new sources with which to reconstruct past climate. We here present a new paleoclimatic database for the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula based on tree-ring records, documentary evidence and instrumental data. The network includes 774 tree-ring, earlywood and latewood width series from Pinus uncinata, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra trees in the Pyrenees and Iberian Range reaching back to AD 1510. Three reconstructions are developed using these samples; an annual drought reconstruction since AD 1694, a summer drought reconstruction since AD 1734, and a maximum temperature reconstruction since AD 1604. Additionally, the documentary records from 16 locations in the Ebro Valley are examined focusing on climate-related 'rogations'. We differentiated three types of rogations, considering the importance of religious acts, to identify the severity of drought and pluvial events. Finally, an attempt to explore the links between documentary and tree-ring based reconstructions is presented.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review.

PubMed

Hellberg, Rosalee S; Chu, Eric

2016-08-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Constraining cloud responses to CO2 and warming in climate models: physical and statistical approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, S. C.; Fuchs, D.; Bony, S.; Jean-Louis, D.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.« less

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017-2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018-2020 period.

Creating Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Climate Forecast and Climate Change Projection Information for the North American Monsoon Region Suitable for Decision Making Purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C. L.; Dominguez, F.; Chang, H.

2010-12-01

Current seasonal climate forecasts and climate change projections of the North American monsoon are based on the use of course-scale information from a general circulation model. The global models, however, have substantial difficulty in resolving the regional scale forcing mechanisms of precipitation. This is especially true during the period of the North American Monsoon in the warm season. Precipitation is driven primarily due to the diurnal cycle of convection, and this process cannot be resolve in coarse-resolution global models that have a relatively poor representation of terrain. Though statistical downscaling may offer a relatively expedient method to generate information more appropriate for the regional scale, and is already being used in the resource decision making processes in the Southwest U.S., its main drawback is that it cannot account for a non-stationary climate. Here we demonstrate the use of a regional climate model, specifically the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, for dynamical downscaling of the North American Monsoon. To drive the WRF simulations, we use retrospective reforecasts from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) model, the operational model used at the U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, and three select “well performing” IPCC AR 4 models for the A2 emission scenario. Though relatively computationally expensive, the use of WRF as a regional climate model in this way adds substantial value in the representation of the North American Monsoon. In both cases, the regional climate model captures a fairly realistic and reasonable monsoon, where none exists in the driving global model, and captures the dominant modes of precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Long-term precipitation variability and trends in these simulations is considered via the standardized precipitation index (SPI), a commonly used metric to characterize long-term drought. Dynamically downscaled climate projection data will be integrated into future water resource projections in the state of Arizona, through a cooperative effort involving numerous water resource stakeholders.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Diversity, Adaptability and Ecosystem Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keribin, Rozenn; Friend, Andrew

2013-04-01

Our ability to predict climate change and anticipate its impacts depends on Earth System Models (ESMs) and their ability to account for the high number of interacting components of the Earth System and to gauge both their influence on the climate and the feedbacks they induce. The land carbon cycle is a component of ESMs that is still poorly constrained. Since the 1990s dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have become the main tool through which we understand the interactions between plant ecosystems and the climate. While DGVMs have made it clear the impacts of climate change on vegetation could be dramatic, predicting the dieback of rainforests and massive carbon losses from various ecosystems, they are highly variable both in their composition and their predictions. Their treatment of plant diversity and competition in particular vary widely and are based on highly-simplified relationships that do not account for the multiple levels of diversity and adaptability found in real plant ecosystems. The aim of this GREENCYCLES II project is to extend an individual-based DGVM to treat the diversity of physiologies found in plant communities and evaluate their effect if any on the ecosystem's transient dynamics and resilience. In the context of the InterSectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), an initiative coordinated by a team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that aims to provide fast-track global impact assessments for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, we compare 6 vegetation models including 4 DGVMs under different climate change scenarios and analyse how the very different treatments of plant diversity and interactions from one model to the next affect the models' results. We then investigate a new, more mechanistic method of incorporating plant diversity into the DGVM "Hybrid" based on ecological tradeoffs mediated by plant traits and individual-based competition for light.

Java Climate Model: a tool for interaction between science, policy and citizens, to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, B.

2003-04-01

To reach an effective global agreement to help avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system" (UNFCCC article 2) we must balance many complex interacting issues, and also inspire the active engagement of citizens around the world. So we have to transfer understanding back from computers and experts, into the ultimate "integrated assessment model" which remains the global network of human heads. The Java Climate Model (JCM) tries to help provide a quantitative framework for this global dialogue, by enabling anybody to explore many mitigation policy options and scientific uncertainties simply by adjusting parameter controls with a mouse in a web browser. The instant response on linked plots helps to demonstrate cause and effect, and the sensitivity to various assumptions, risk and value judgements. JCM implements the same simple models and formulae as used by IPCC for the TAR projections, in efficient modular structure, including carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry, radiative forcing, changes in temperature and sealevel, including some feedbacks. As well as explore the SRES scenarios, the user can create a wide variety of inverse scenarios for stabilising CO2, forcing, or temperature. People ask how local emissions which they can control, may influence the vast global natural and human systems, and change local climate impacts which affect them directly. JCM includes regional emissions and socioeconomic data, and scaled climate impact maps. However to complete this loop in a fast interactive model is a challenge! For transparency and accessibility, pop-up information is provided in ten languages, and documentation ranges from key cross-cutting questions, to them details of the model formulae, including all source code.

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the presentmore » day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario.« less