A clarion call for aeolian research to engage with global land degradation and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chappell, Adrian; Lee, Jeffrey A.; Baddock, Matthew; Gill, Thomas E.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Leys, John F.; Marticorena, Beatrice; Petherick, Lynda; Schepanski, Kerstin; Tatarko, John; Telfer, Matt; Webb, Nicholas P.

2018-06-01

This editorial represents a clarion call for the aeolian research community to provide increased scientific input to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and an invitation to apply for ISAR funding to organize a working group to support this engagement.

Patterns of authorship in the IPCC Working Group III report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbera, Esteve; Calvet-Mir, Laura; Hughes, Hannah; Paterson, Matthew

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has completed its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Here, we explore the social scientific networks informing Working Group III (WGIII) assessment of mitigation for the AR5. Identifying authors’ institutional pathways, we highlight the persistence and extent of North-South inequalities in the authorship of the report, revealing the dominance of US and UK institutions as training sites for WGIII authors. Examining patterns of co-authorship between WGIII authors, we identify the unevenness in co-authoring relations, with a small number of authors co-writing regularly and indicative of an epistemic community’s influence over the IPCC’s definition of mitigation. These co-authoring networks follow regional patterns, with significant EU-BRICS collaboration and authors from the US relatively insular. From a disciplinary perspective, economists, engineers, physicists and natural scientists remain central to the process, with insignificant participation of scholars from the humanities. The shared training and career paths made apparent through our analysis suggest that the idea that broader geographic participation may lead to a wider range of viewpoints and cultural understandings of climate change mitigation may not be as sound as previously thought.

Towards the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

2017-04-01

The Intergovernemental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the Paris Agreement to prepare a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. This special report is prepared under the scientific leadership of the co-chairs of the IPCC Working Groups I, II and III, and with operational support from the Technical Support Unit of Working Group I. It will consist of 5 chapters, providing (i) framing and context, (ii) exploring mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development, (iii) assessing impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems, and (iv) options for strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change, with a final chapter on sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities. The timeline of preparation of the report is extremely short, with four lead author meetings taking place from March 2017 to April 2018, and an approval session scheduled in September 2018. It is crucial that new knowledge is being produced and submitted / published in the literature in time for contributing new material to be assessed by the authors of the report (with deadlines in late fall 2017 and spring 2018). With respect to the additional impacts expected for 1.5°C warming compared to present-day, and impacts avoided with respect to larger warming, new research is expected to build on existing CMIP5 projections, including new information on regional change, methods to provide knowledge for the most vulnerable ecosystems and regions, but also information from ongoing projects aiming to produce large ensembles of simulations, and new simulations driven by low carbon pathways. This is important for identifying climate change signals from climate variability (e.g. changes in water cycle, extremes...), for assessing strengths and limitations of methodologies using high end climate scenarios versus true stabilisation pathways, and for exploring long term risks beyond transient response, with consideration for overshoots and the full timescale of Earth system feedbacks. Lessons learnt from past warm climatic phases may also provide insights complementary to projections, albeit without the perspective of rates of changes that is specific to the issue of 1.5°C global warming. This special report is also designed to be complementary from the other reports in preparation for the IPCC Sixth Assessment cycle (AR6), including the special reports on the ocean and the cryosphere, on land use issues, both scheduled for 2019, and the Working Group main assessment reports, scheduled for 2021-2022.

Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

2015-10-01

Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive psychiatric community care for high users of inpatient services.

PubMed

Rosenheck, R A; Neale, M S

1998-05-01

This 2-year experimental study evaluated the effectiveness and cost of 10 intensive psychiatric community care (IPCC) programs at Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers in the northeastern United States. High users of inpatient services were randomly assigned to either IPCC or standard Department of Veterans Affairs care at 6 general medical and surgical hospitals (n=271 vs 257) and 4 neuropsychiatric hospitals (n=183 vs 162). Patient interviews every 6 months and national computerized data were used to assess clinical outcomes, health service use, health care costs, and non-health care costs. There was only 1 significant clinical difference between groups across follow-up periods: IPCC patients at general medical and surgical sites had higher community living skills. However, at the final interview, IPCC patients at general medical and surgical sites showed significantly lower symptoms, higher functioning, and greater satisfaction with services. Treatment with IPCC significantly reduced hospital use only at neuropsychiatric sites (320 vs 513 days, P<.001). Total societal costs, including the cost of IPCC, were lower for IPCC at neuropsychiatric sites ($82,454 vs $116,651, P<.001), but greater at general medical and surgical sites ($51,537 vs $46,491, P<.01). When 2 sites that incompletely implemented the model were dropped from the analysis, costs at general medical and surgical sites were $38 lower for IPCC (P=.26). At acute care hospitals, IPCC treatment is associated with greater long-term clinical improvement and, when fully implemented, is cost-neutral. At long-stay hospitals treating older, less-functional patients, it is not associated with clinical or functional improvement but generates substantial cost savings. Intensive psychiatric community care thus has beneficial, but somewhat different, outcome profiles at different types of hospitals.

Ischemia-induced glomerular parietal epithelial cells hyperplasia: Commonly misdiagnosed cellular crescent in renal biopsy.

PubMed

Zeng, Yeting; Wang, Xinrui; Xie, Feilai; Zheng, Zhiyong

2017-08-01

Ischemic pseudo-cellular crescent (IPCC) that is induced by ischemia and composed of hyperplastic glomerular parietal epithelial cells resembles cellular crescent. In this study, we aimed to assess the clinical and pathological features of IPCC in renal biopsy to avoid over-diagnosis and to determine the diagnostic basis. 4 IPCC cases diagnosed over a 4-year period (2012-2015) were evaluated for the study. Meanwhile, 5 cases of ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis and 5 cases of lupus nephritis (LN) were selected as control. Appropriate clinical data, morphology, and immunohistochemical features of all cases were retrieved. Results showed that the basement membrane of glomerulus with IPCC appeared as a concentric twisted ball, and glomerular cells of the lesion were reduced even entirely absent, and the adjacent afferent arterioles showed sclerosis or luminal stenosis. Furthermore, immune globulin deposition, vasculitis, and fibrinous exudate have not been observed in IPCC. While the cellular crescents showed diverse characteristics in both morphology and immunostaining in the control group. Therefore, these results indicated that IPCC is a sort of ischemic reactive hyperplasia and associated with sclerosis, stenosis, or obstruction of adjacent afferent arterioles, which is clearly different from cellular crescents result from glomerulonephritis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector in Argentina in business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios.

PubMed

Santalla, Estela; Córdoba, Verónica; Blanco, Gabriel

2013-08-01

The objective of this work was the application of 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for the estimation of methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the waste sector in Argentina as a preliminary exercise for greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory development and to compare with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines. Emissions projections to 2030 were evaluated under two scenarios--business as usual (BAU), and mitigation--and the calculations were done by using the ad hoc developed IPCC software. According to local activity data, in the business-as-usual scenario, methane emissions from solid waste disposal will increase by 73% by 2030 with respect to the emissions of year 2000. In the mitigation scenario, based on the recorded trend of methane captured in landfills, a decrease of 50% from the BAU scenario should be achieved by 2030. In the BAU scenario, GHG emissions from domestic wastewater will increase 63% from 2000 to 2030. Methane emissions from industrial wastewater, calculated from activity data of dairy, swine, slaughterhouse, citric, sugar, and wine sectors, will increase by 58% from 2000 to 2030 while methane emissions from domestic will increase 74% in the same period. Results show that GHG emissions calculated from 2006 IPCC Guidelines resulted in lower levels than those reported in previous national inventories for solid waste disposal and domestic wastewater categories, while levels were 18% higher for industrial wastewater. The implementation of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Inventories is now considering by the UNFCCC for non-Annex I countries in order to enhance the compilation of inventories based on comparable good practice methods. This work constitutes the first GHG emissions estimation from the waste sector of Argentina applying the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the ad doc developed software. It will contribute to identifying the main differences between the models applied in the estimation of methane emissions on the key categories of waste emission sources and to comparing results with previous inventories based on 1996 IPCC Guidelines.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Development of municipal solid waste classification in Korea based on fossil carbon fraction.

PubMed

Lee, Jeongwoo; Kang, Seongmin; Kim, Seungjin; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2015-10-01

Environmental problems and climate change arising from waste incineration are taken quite seriously in the world. In Korea, the waste disposal methods are largely classified into landfill, incineration, recycling, etc. and the amount of incinerated waste has risen by 24.5% from 2002. In the analysis of CO₂emissions estimations of waste incinerators fossil carbon content are main factor by the IPCC. FCF differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country, and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration. The characteristics possible for sorting were classified according to FCF and form. The characteristics sorted according to fossil carbon fraction were paper, textiles, rubber, and leather. Paper was classified into pure paper and processed paper; textiles were classified into cotton and synthetic fibers; and rubber and leather were classified into artificial and natural. The analysis of FCF was implemented by collecting representative samples from each classification group, by applying the 14C method, and using AMS equipment. And the analysis values were compared with the default values proposed by the IPCC. In this study of garden and park waste and plastics, the differences were within the range of the IPCC default values or the differences were negligible. However, coated paper, synthetic textiles, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, artificial leather, and other wastes showed differences of over 10% in FCF content. IPCC is comprised of largely 9 types of qualitative classifications, in emissions estimation a great difference can occur from the combined characteristics according with the existing IPCC classification system by using the minutely classified waste characteristics as in this study. Fossil carbon fraction (FCF) differs depending on the characteristics of waste in each country; and a wide range of default values are proposed by the IPCC. This study conducted research on the existing classifications of the IPCC and Korean waste classification systems based on FCF for accurate greenhouse gas emissions estimation of waste incineration.

An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

PubMed

Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

2015-04-01

Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Communication and perception of uncertainty via graphics in disciplinary and interdisciplinary climate change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackner, Bettina C.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2015-04-01

Besides written and spoken language, graphical displays play an important role in communicating scientific findings or explaining scientific methods, both within one and between various disciplines. Uncertainties and probabilities are generally difficult to communicate, especially via graphics. Graphics including uncertainty sometimes need detailed written or oral descriptions to be understood. "Good" graphics should ease scientific communication, especially amongst different disciplines. One key objective of the Doctoral Programme "Climate Change: Uncertainties, Thresholds and Coping Strategies" (http://dk-climate-change.uni-graz.at/en/), located at the University of Graz, is to reach a better understanding of climate change uncertainties by bridging research in multiple disciplines, including physical climate sciences, geosciences, systems and sustainability sciences, environmental economics, and climate ethics. This asks for efforts into the formulation of a "common language", not only as to words, but also as to graphics. The focus of this work is on two topics: (1) What different kinds of uncertainties (e.g., data uncertainty, model uncertainty) are included in the graphics of the recent IPCC reports of all three working groups (WGs) and in what ways do uncertainties get illustrated? (2) How are these graphically displayed uncertainties perceived by researchers of a similar research discipline and from researchers of different disciplines than the authors of the graphics? To answer the first question, the IPCC graphics including uncertainties are grouped and analyzed with respect to different kinds of uncertainties to filter out most of the commonly used types of displays. The graphics will also be analyzed with respect to their WG origin, as we assume that graphics from researchers rooted in, e.g., physical climate sciences and geosciences (mainly IPCC WG 1) differ from those of researchers rooted in, e.g., economics or system sciences (mainly WG 3). In a subsequent analysis, some basic types of graphics displaying uncertainty are selected to serve as input for the construction of "makeshift graphics" (displaying only the main features but including no detailed title or caption). These makeshift graphics are then used to assess how the displayed features are perceived and understood by researchers of various disciplines. In this initial study, this analysis will be based on results of a workshop including the wide diversity of researchers within the FWF-DK Climate Change. We will present first results of this work.

Inclusion of Coastal Wetlands within the Inventory of United States Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crooks, S.; Wirth, T. C.; Herold, N.; Bernal, B.; Holmquist, J. R.; Troxler, T.; Megonigal, P.; Sutton-Grier, A.; Muth, M.; Emmett-Mattox, S.

2016-12-01

The Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks' (Inventory) chapter on Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) reports C stock changes and emissions of CH4 and N2O from forest management, and other land-use/land-use change activities. With the release of the 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories: Wetlands (Wetlands Supplement) the United States has begun working to include emissions and removals from management activities on coastal wetlands, and is responding to a request by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for Parties to report back in March 2017 on their country's experience in applying the Wetlands Supplement. To support the EPA, NOAA has formed an interagency and science community group i.e., Coastal Wetland Carbon Working Group (CWCWG). The task of the CWCWG is to conduct an initial IPCC Tier 1-2 baseline assessment of GHG emissions and removals associated with coastal wetlands using the methodologies described in the recently released IPCC Wetlands Supplement for inclusion in the Inventory submitted to the UNFCCC in April 2017. The 5 million ha coastal land area of the conterminous United States has been delineated based upon tide stations and LIDAR derived digital elevation model. Land use change within the coastal land area has been calculated from NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP), Forest Inventory and National Resource Inventory (NRI). Tier 2 (i.e., country-specific) subnational / climate zone estimates of carbon stocks (including soils), along with carbon sequestration rates and methane emissions rates have been developed from literature. Future opportunities to improve the coastal wetland estimates include: refined quantification of methane emissions from wetlands across the salinity gradient (including mapping of this gradient) and from impounded waters; quantification of impacts of forestry activities on wetland soils; emissions and removals on forested tidally influenced and palustrine wetlands on coastal land areas; the fate of carbon released from eroded wetlands; and the extent of seagrass along with the emissions and removals associated with anthropogenic impacts to them.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.

2012-07-01

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management.more » The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)« less

Herding cats? A multi-model perspective on tropospheric ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, P. J.

2015-12-01

Various global multi-model studies have investigated tropospheric ozone changes over multi-decadal timescales. Several robust features emerge, which - for instance - allows the IPCC to associate high confidence in the radiative forcing associated with ozone increases between 1750 and the present day. However, such quantities hide the spread in results between different models, particularly when looking at seasonal and regional scales, and including for comparisons with observations. What can we learn about our scientific understanding from the model spread? What can we learn about models from the model spread? And can we make recommendations for deficient or missing processes if we wish to use our models for environmental prediction? Of course, these questions also have to be asked in the context of what we want the model(s) to do (air quality, climate, stratospheric ozone depletion etc.). This poster will report ongoing work in my group which draws on results from multi-model experiments conducted in support of the most recent IPCC report (CMIP5 and ACCMIP), with an eye to the expected outcomes from the ongoing Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) model simulations.

Statistical downscaling of regional climate scenarios for the French Alps : Impacts on snow cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousselot, M.; Durand, Y.; Giraud, G.; Mérindol, L.; Déqué, M.; Sanchez, E.; Pagé, C.; Hasan, A.

2010-12-01

Mountain areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Owing to the complexity of mountain terrain, climate research at scales relevant for impacts studies and decisive for stakeholders is challenging. A possible way to bridge the gap between these fine scales and those of the general circulation models (GCMs) consists of combining high-resolution simulations of Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to statistical downscaling methods. The present work is based on such an approach. It aims at investigating the impacts of climate change on snow cover in the French Alps for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 under several IPCC hypotheses. An analogue method based on high resolution atmospheric fields from various RCMs and climate reanalyses is used to simulate local climate scenarios. These scenarios, which provide meteorological parameters relevant for snowpack evolution, subsequently feed the CROCUS snow model. In these simulations, various sources of uncertainties are thus considered (several greenhouse gases emission scenarios and RCMs). Results are obtained for different regions of the French Alps at various altitudes. For all scenarios, temperature increase is relatively uniform over the Alps. This regional warming is larger than that generally modeled at the global scale (IPCC, 2007), and particularly strong in summer. Annual precipitation amounts seem to decrease, mainly as a result of decreasing precipitation trends in summer and fall. As a result of these climatic evolutions, there is a general decrease of the mean winter snow depth and seasonal snow duration for all massifs. Winter snow depths are particularly reduced in the Northern Alps. However, the impact on seasonal snow duration is more significant in the Southern and Extreme Southern Alps, since these regions are already characterized by small winter snow depths at low elevations. Reference : IPCC (2007a). Climate change 2007 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In : Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. This work is performed in the framework of the SCAMPEI ANR (French research project).

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2007-12-01

The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone · Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are currently lacking · Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies Adaptive capacity to manage as climate changes can be increased by introducing adaptation measures into development planning and operations (sometimes termed 'mainstreaming'). This can be achieved by including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design, or by including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster preparedness programs (such as introducing drought warning systems based on actual management needs). The major barriers to implementing adaptive management measures are that adaptation to climate change is not as yet a high priority, and the validity of local manifestations of global climate change remains in question. Coping with the uncertainties associated with estimates of future climate change and the impacts on economic and environmental resources means management measures must be robust enough to apply to a range of potential scenarios, some as yet undefined Greenhouse gas mitigation is not enough to reduce climatic risks, nor does identifying the need for adaptations translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. By implementing mainstreaming initiatives, adaptation to climate change will become part of, or will be consistent with, other well- established programs to increase societal resilience, particularly environmental impacts assessments, adaptive management

Multisite experimental cost study of intensive psychiatric community care.

PubMed

Rosenheck, R; Neale, M; Leaf, P; Milstein, R; Frisman, L

1995-01-01

A 2-year experimental cost study of 10 Intensive Psychiatric Community Care (IPCC) programs was conducted at Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers in the Northeast. High hospital users were randomly assigned to either IPCC (n = 454) or standard VA care (n = 419) at four neuropsychiatric (NP) and six general medical and surgical (GMS) hospitals. National computerized data were used to track all VA health care service usage and costs for 2 years following program entry. At 9 of the 10 sites, IPCC treatment resulted in reduced inpatient service usage. Overall, for IPCC patients compared with control patients, average inpatient usage was 89 days (33%) less while average cost per patient (for IPCC inpatient, and outpatient services) was $15,556 (20%) less. Additionally, costs for IPCC patients compared with control patients were $33,295 (29%) less at NP sites but were $6,273 (15%) greater at GMS sites. At both NP and GMS sites, costs were lower for IPCC patients in two subgroups: veterans over age 45 and veterans with high levels of inpatient service use before program entry. No interaction was noted between the impact of IPCC on costs and other clinical or sociodemographic characteristics. Similarly, no linear relationship was observed between the intensity of IPCC services and the impact of IPCC on VA costs, although the two sites that did not fully implement the IPCC program had the poorest results. With these sites excluded, the total cost of care for IPCC patients at GMS sites was $579 (3%) more per year than that for the control patients.

The informatics capability maturity of integrated primary care centres in Australia.

PubMed

Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Kearns, Rachael; Taggart, Jane; Frank, Oliver; Lane, Riki; Tam, Michael; Dennis, Sarah; Walker, Christine; Russell, Grant; Harris, Mark

2017-09-01

Integrated primary care requires systems and service integration along with financial incentives to promote downward substitution to a single entry point to care. Integrated Primary Care Centres (IPCCs) aim to improve integration by co-location of health services. The Informatics Capability Maturity (ICM) describes how well health organisations collect, manage and share information; manage eHealth technology, implementation, change, data quality and governance; and use "intelligence" to improve care. Describe associations of ICM with systems and service integration in IPCCs. Mixed methods evaluation of IPCCs in metropolitan and rural Australia: an enhanced general practice, four GP Super Clinics, a "HealthOne" (private-public partnership) and a Community Health Centre. Data collection methods included self-assessed ICM, document review, interviews, observations in practice and assessment of electronic health record data. Data was analysed and compared across IPCCs. The IPCCs demonstrated a range of funding models, ownership, leadership, organisation and ICM. Digital tools were used with varying effectiveness to collect, use and share data. Connectivity was problematic, requiring "work-arounds" to communicate and share information. The lack of technical, data and software interoperability standards, clinical coding and secure messaging were barriers to data collection, integration and sharing. Strong leadership and governance was important for successful implementation of robust and secure eHealth systems. Patient engagement with eHealth tools was suboptimal. ICM is positively associated with integration of data, systems and care. Improved ICM requires a health workforce with eHealth competencies; technical, semantic and software standards; adequate privacy and security; and good governance and leadership. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

Science Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruning, Claus; Ko, Malcolm; Lee, David; Miake-Lye, Richard

2006-01-01

This report presents an overview of the latest scientific consensus understanding of the effect of aviation emissions on the atmosphere for both local air quality and climate change in order to provide a contextual framework for raising future questions to help assess the environmental benefits of technology goals. The questions may take the form of what are the environmental benefits that would result if goals are achieved, what are the consequences for other aviation pollutants, and whether tools exist to evaluate the trade-off. In addition to this documents, presentations will be made at the meeting to illustrate current developing views on these subjects. To facilitate studies on trade-offs among environmental impacts from aviation, one must start with scientific investigations that quantify the impacts. A second step is to select representative metrics with policy relevance so that diverse impacts can be put on the same common scale. The IPCC Special Report on Aviation (IPCC, 1999) serves as an excellent example of the first step. The report was produced by IPCC's Working Group 1, whose mandate is to provide the assessment of the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. An example of the second step is Witt et al. (2005), a study commissioned by the Environment DG of the European Commission. Within the context of CAEP, step 1 is aligned with the responsibilities of the Research Focal Points, while step 2 is more related to activities of FESG. These steps are likely to be iterative as proposed policy options will raise new science questions, and new science will expand or limit policy options. Past experiences show that clearly defined policy-related scientific needs will help focus the scientific community to marshal their intellects to provide the needed answers.

Linguistic analysis of IPCC summaries for policymakers and associated coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkemeyer, Ralf; Dessai, Suraje; Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Renzi, Barbara Gabriella; Napolitano, Giulio

2016-03-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the most widely read section of IPCC reports and the main springboard for the communication of its assessment reports. Previous studies have shown that communicating IPCC findings to a variety of scientific and non-scientific audiences presents significant challenges to both the IPCC and the mass media. Here, we employ widely established sentiment analysis tools and readability metrics to explore the extent to which information published by the IPCC differs from the presentation of respective findings in the popular and scientific media between 1990 and 2014. IPCC SPMs clearly stand out in terms of low readability, which has remained relatively constant despite the IPCC’s efforts to consolidate and readjust its communications policy. In contrast, scientific and quality newspaper coverage has become increasingly readable and emotive. Our findings reveal easy gains that could be achieved in making SPMs more accessible for non-scientific audiences.

Rescuing Data from International Scientific Assessments: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Xing, X.

2016-12-01

International scientific assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments represent significant efforts by the global scientific community to review, synthesize, and communicate diverse scientific knowledge, data, and information to support societal decision making on pressing problems such as resource management and climate change. To support the transparency, integrity, and usability of these assessments, it is vital that the underlying data used in these assessments be made openly available and usable by diverse stakeholders. Unfortunately, due to the many geographically dispersed contributors to assessments of this kind, as well as the severe time pressures and limited resources when assessments are conducted, appropriate management and preservation of these data are not always a priority. This can lead to the need to "rescue" key data to ensure their long-term preservation, integrity, accessibility, and appropriate reuse, especially in subsequent assessments. We describe here efforts over two decades to rescue selected data from the MA and IPCC assessments, to work with assessment authors and other contributors to validate and document assessment data, and to develop appropriate levels of data stewardship in light of potential user needs and constrained resources. The IPCC efforts are supported by the IPCC Data Distribution Center (DDC), which is operated collaboratively by the Center for Environmental Data Analysis in the United Kingdom, the World Data Center-Climate in Germany, and the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) in the U.S. With the sixth IPCC assessment cycle now starting, a key challenge is to help the assessment community improve data management during the assessment process to reduce the risks of data loss, inadequate documentation, incomplete provenance, unnecessary data restrictions, and other problems.

Intra-operative peritoneal lavage for colorectal cancer

PubMed Central

Passot, Guillaume; Mohkam, Kayvan; Cotte, Eddy; Glehen, Olivier

2014-01-01

Free cancer cells can be detected in peritoneal fluid at the time of colorectal surgery. Peritoneal lavage in colorectal surgery for cancer is not used in routine, and the prognostic significance of intraperitoneal free cancer cells (IPCC) remains unclear. Data concerning the technique of peritoneal lavage to detect IPCC and its timing regarding colorectal resection are scarce. However, positive IPCC might be the first step of peritoneal spread in colorectal cancers, which could lead to early specific treatments. Because of the important heterogeneity of IPCC determination in reported studies, no treatment have been proposed to patients with positive IPCC. Herein, we provide an overview of IPCC detection and its impact on recurrence and survival, and we suggest further multi-institutional studies to evaluate new treatment strategies. PMID:24616569

ENSO Simulation in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models: Are the Current Models Better?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

AchutaRao, K; Sperber, K R

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990's (the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 [CMIP2] models). The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared withmore » reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Nino. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modeling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Nino precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Nino forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies in the IPCC models occurs. This improvement, is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Nino forced precipitation anomalies.« less

Tracking the release of IPCC AR5 on Twitter: Users, comments, and sources following the release of the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers.

PubMed

Newman, Todd P

2017-10-01

Using the immediate release of the Working Group 1 Summary for Policymakers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report as a case study, this article seeks to describe what type of actors were most active during the summary release, the substance of the most propagated tweets during the summary release, and the media sources that attracted the most attention during the summary release. The results from the study suggest that non-elite actors, such as individual bloggers and concerned citizens, accounted for the majority of the most propagated tweets in the sample. This study also finds that the majority of the most propagated tweets in the sample focused on public understanding of the report. Finally, while mainstream media sources were the most frequently discussed media sources, a number of new media and science news and information sources compete for audience attention.

Promoting long-term survival of insulin-producing cell grafts that differentiate from adipose tissue-derived stem cells to cure type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuzi; Dai, Hehua; Wan, Ni; Moore, Yolonda; Dai, Zhenhua

2011-01-01

Insulin-producing cell clusters (IPCCs) have recently been generated in vitro from adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs) to circumvent islet shortage. However, it is unknown how long they can survive upon transplantation, whether they are eventually rejected by recipients, and how their long-term survival can be induced to permanently cure type 1 diabetes. IPCC graft survival is critical for their clinical application and this issue must be systematically addressed prior to their in-depth clinical trials. Here we found that IPCC grafts that differentiated from murine ASCs in vitro, unlike their freshly isolated islet counterparts, did not survive long-term in syngeneic mice, suggesting that ASC-derived IPCCs have intrinsic survival disadvantage over freshly isolated islets. Indeed, β cells retrieved from IPCC syngrafts underwent faster apoptosis than their islet counterparts. However, blocking both Fas and TNF receptor death pathways inhibited their apoptosis and restored their long-term survival in syngeneic recipients. Furthermore, blocking CD40-CD154 costimulation and Fas/TNF signaling induced long-term IPCC allograft survival in overwhelming majority of recipients. Importantly, Fas-deficient IPCC allografts exhibited certain immune privilege and enjoyed long-term survival in diabetic NOD mice in the presence of CD28/CD40 joint blockade while their islet counterparts failed to do so. Long-term survival of ASC-derived IPCC syngeneic grafts requires blocking Fas and TNF death pathways, whereas blocking both death pathways and CD28/CD40 costimulation is needed for long-term IPCC allograft survival in diabetic NOD mice. Our studies have important clinical implications for treating type 1 diabetes via ASC-derived IPCC transplantation. © 2011 Zhang et al.

Promoting Long-Term Survival of Insulin-Producing Cell Grafts That Differentiate from Adipose Tissue-Derived Stem Cells to Cure Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shuzi; Dai, Hehua; Wan, Ni; Moore, Yolonda; Dai, Zhenhua

2011-01-01

Background Insulin-producing cell clusters (IPCCs) have recently been generated in vitro from adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ASCs) to circumvent islet shortage. However, it is unknown how long they can survive upon transplantation, whether they are eventually rejected by recipients, and how their long-term survival can be induced to permanently cure type 1 diabetes. IPCC graft survival is critical for their clinical application and this issue must be systematically addressed prior to their in-depth clinical trials. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we found that IPCC grafts that differentiated from murine ASCs in vitro, unlike their freshly isolated islet counterparts, did not survive long-term in syngeneic mice, suggesting that ASC-derived IPCCs have intrinsic survival disadvantage over freshly isolated islets. Indeed, β cells retrieved from IPCC syngrafts underwent faster apoptosis than their islet counterparts. However, blocking both Fas and TNF receptor death pathways inhibited their apoptosis and restored their long-term survival in syngeneic recipients. Furthermore, blocking CD40-CD154 costimulation and Fas/TNF signaling induced long-term IPCC allograft survival in overwhelming majority of recipients. Importantly, Fas-deficient IPCC allografts exhibited certain immune privilege and enjoyed long-term survival in diabetic NOD mice in the presence of CD28/CD40 joint blockade while their islet counterparts failed to do so. Conclusions/Significance Long-term survival of ASC-derived IPCC syngeneic grafts requires blocking Fas and TNF death pathways, whereas blocking both death pathways and CD28/CD40 costimulation is needed for long-term IPCC allograft survival in diabetic NOD mice. Our studies have important clinical implications for treating type 1 diabetes via ASC-derived IPCC transplantation. PMID:22216347

The highs and lows of cloud radiative feedback: Comparing observational data and CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenney, A.; Randall, D. A.

2014-12-01

Clouds play a complex role in the climate system, and remain one of the more difficult aspects of the future climate to predict. Over subtropical eastern ocean basins, particularly next to California, Peru, and Southwest Africa, low marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) help to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface by reflecting incident sunlight. The climate feedback associated with these clouds is thought to be positive. This project looks at CMIP5 models and compares them to observational data from CERES and ERA-Interim to try and find observational evidence and model agreement for low, marine stratocumulus cloud feedback. Although current evidence suggests that the low cloud feedback is positive (IPCC, 2014), an analysis of the simulated relationship between July lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and shortwave cloud forcing in MSC regions suggests that this feedback is not due to changes in LTS. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.

Report of the tenth annual International Pachyonychia Congenita Consortium meeting

PubMed Central

van Steensel, Maurice A.M.; Coulombe, Pierre A.; Kaspar, Roger L.; Milstone, Leonard M.; McLean, W.H. Irwin; Roop, Dennis R.; Smith, Frances J.D.; Sprecher, Eli; Schwartz, Mary E.

2013-01-01

The International Pachyonychia Congenita Consortium (IPCC) was founded in 2004 in Park City, Utah, USA. Its goal is to find a cure for pachyonychia congenita, a rare keratinizing disorder. From February 14th–17th, 2013, the group convened in Park City for their tenth annual meeting. The 2013 meeting focused on how to best move forward with clinical trials and on learning from work in other scientific areas, with an emphasis on understanding mechanisms of pain and hyperkeratosis. Considerable time was spent on discussing the best way to move forward with development of new treatments and how to obtain or develop tools that can measure treatment outcomes in PC. PMID:24518109

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology (IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Climate change and biometeorology, the International Society of Biometeorology and its journal: a perspective on the past and a framework for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beggs, Paul John

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is inherently a biometeorological issue. As such, it would be reasonably expected that the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) and its journal, International Journal of Biometeorology ( IJB), would have had climate change feature prominently in their activities, articles etc., and to therefore have made a substantial and valuable contribution to the science of the issue. This article presents an analysis of climate change science in ISB and IJB. The analysis focusses on climate-change-related publications by ISB Presidents found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science; contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Working Group II (WGII) by ISB Presidents; and climate change-related publications in IJB found through searches of Thomson Reuters Web of Science. The results demonstrate that the ISB, as represented by its recent, current, and future Presidents, is actively engaged in climate change research and the production of scholarly climate change publications. For example, ISB Presidents have contributed as authors to all four IPCC WGII Assessment Reports, with some Presidents having contributed to more than one Assessment Report or several chapters of the one report. Similarly, it is evident that the IJB is increasingly attracting and publishing climate-change-related articles, with such articles generally having greater impact (as indicated by citations) than other IJB articles. Opportunities for the ISB to provide an internal framework for, and showcase, its climate change work are described. Such opportunities, if enacted, would complement the recent creation of two IJB climate change Field Editor positions.

Methane correction factors for estimating emissions from aerobic wastewater treatment facilities based on field data in Mexico and on literature review.

PubMed

Noyola, A; Paredes, M G; Güereca, L P; Molina, L T; Zavala, M

2018-10-15

Wastewater treatment (WWT) may be an important source of methane (CH 4 ), a greenhouse gas with significant global warming potential. Sources of CH 4 emissions from WWT facilities can be found in the water and in the sludge process lines. Among the methodologies for estimating CH 4 emissions inventories from WWT, the more adopted are the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which recommends default emission factors (Tier 1) depending on WWT systems. Recent published results show that well managed treatment facilities may emit CH 4 , due to dissolved CH 4 in the influent wastewater; in addition, biological nutrient removal also will produce this gas in the anaerobic (or anoxic) steps. However, none of these elements is considered in the current IPCC guidelines. The aim of this work is to propose modified (and new) methane correction factors (MCF) regarding the current Tier 1 IPCC guidelines for CH 4 emissions from aerobic treatment systems, with and without anaerobic sludge digesters, focusing on intertropical countries. The modifications are supported on in situ assessment of fugitive CH 4 emissions in two facilities in Mexico and on relevant literature data. In the case of well-managed centralized aerobic treatment plant, a MCF of 0.06 (instead of the current 0.0) is proposed, considering that the assumption of a CH 4 -neutral treatment facility, as established in the IPCC methodology, is not supported. Similarly, a MCF of 0.08 is proposed for biological nutrient removal processes, being a new entry in the guidelines. Finally, a one-step straightforward calculation is proposed for centralized aerobic treatment plants with anaerobic digesters that avoids confusion when selecting the appropriate default MCF based on the Tier 1 IPCC guidelines. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lack of prognostic significance of conventional peritoneal cytology in colorectal and gastric cancers: results of EVOCAPE 2 multicentre prospective study.

PubMed

Cotte, E; Peyrat, P; Piaton, E; Chapuis, F; Rivoire, M; Glehen, O; Arvieux, C; Mabrut, J-Y; Chipponi, J; Gilly, F-N

2013-07-01

In digestive cancers, the prognostic significance of intraperitoneal free cancer cells remains unclear (IPCC). The main objective of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of IPCC in colorectal and gastric adenocarcinoma. The secondary objectives were to evaluate the predictive significance of IPCC for the development of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) and to evaluate the prevalence of synchronous PC and IPCC. This was a prospective multicentre study. All patients undergoing surgery for a digestive tract cancer had peritoneal cytology taken. Patients with gastric and colorectal cancer with no residual tumour after surgery and no evidence of PC were followed-up for 2 years. The primary end point was overall survival. Between 2002 and 2007, 1364 patients were enrolled and 956 were followed-up over 2 years. Prevalence of IPCC was 5.7% in colon cancer, 0.6% in rectal cancer and 19.5% in gastric cancer. The overall 2-year survival rate for patients with IPCC was 34.7% versus 86.8% for patients with negative cytology (p<0.0001). By multivariate analysis, IPCC was not an independent prognostic factor. No relationship between cytology and recurrence was found. The presence of IPCC was not an independent prognostic and didn't add any additional prognostic information to the usual prognostic factors related to the tumour (pTNM and differentiation). Moreover the presence of IPCC detected with this method didn't appear to predict development of PC. Peritoneal cytology using conventional staining doesn't seem to be a useful tool for the staging of colorectal and gastric cancers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Inpatient Palliative Care Consultation for Patients With Advanced Cancer.

PubMed

Sharma, Rashmi K; Cameron, Kenzie A; Chmiel, Joan S; Von Roenn, Jamie H; Szmuilowicz, Eytan; Prigerson, Holly G; Penedo, Frank J

2015-11-10

Inpatient palliative care consultation (IPCC) may help address barriers that limit the use of hospice and the receipt of symptom-focused care for racial/ethnic minorities, yet little is known about disparities in the rates of IPCC. We evaluated the association between race/ethnicity and rates of IPCC for patients with advanced cancer. Patients with metastatic cancer who were hospitalized between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010, at an urban academic medical center participated in the study. Patient-level multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/ethnicity and IPCC. A total of 6,288 patients (69% non-Hispanic white, 19% African American, and 6% Hispanic) were eligible. Of these patients, 16% of whites, 22% of African Americans, and 20% of Hispanics had an IPCC (overall P < .001). Compared with whites, African Americans had a greater likelihood of receiving an IPCC (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.44), even after adjusting for insurance, hospitalizations, marital status, and illness severity. Among patients who received an IPCC, African Americans had a higher median number of days from IPCC to death compared with whites (25 v 17 days; P = .006), and were more likely than Hispanics (59% v 41%; P = .006), but not whites, to be referred to hospice. Inpatient settings may neutralize some racial/ethnic differences in access to hospice and palliative care services; however, irrespective of race/ethnicity, rates of IPCC remain low and occur close to death. Additional research is needed to identify interventions to improve access to palliative care in the hospital for all patients with advanced cancer. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Inpatient Palliative Care Consultation for Patients With Advanced Cancer

PubMed Central

Sharma, Rashmi K.; Cameron, Kenzie A.; Chmiel, Joan S.; Von Roenn, Jamie H.; Szmuilowicz, Eytan; Prigerson, Holly G.; Penedo, Frank J.

2015-01-01

Purpose Inpatient palliative care consultation (IPCC) may help address barriers that limit the use of hospice and the receipt of symptom-focused care for racial/ethnic minorities, yet little is known about disparities in the rates of IPCC. We evaluated the association between race/ethnicity and rates of IPCC for patients with advanced cancer. Patients and Methods Patients with metastatic cancer who were hospitalized between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2010, at an urban academic medical center participated in the study. Patient-level multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between race/ethnicity and IPCC. Results A total of 6,288 patients (69% non-Hispanic white, 19% African American, and 6% Hispanic) were eligible. Of these patients, 16% of whites, 22% of African Americans, and 20% of Hispanics had an IPCC (overall P < .001). Compared with whites, African Americans had a greater likelihood of receiving an IPCC (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.44), even after adjusting for insurance, hospitalizations, marital status, and illness severity. Among patients who received an IPCC, African Americans had a higher median number of days from IPCC to death compared with whites (25 v 17 days; P = .006), and were more likely than Hispanics (59% v 41%; P = .006), but not whites, to be referred to hospice. Conclusion Inpatient settings may neutralize some racial/ethnic differences in access to hospice and palliative care services; however, irrespective of race/ethnicity, rates of IPCC remain low and occur close to death. Additional research is needed to identify interventions to improve access to palliative care in the hospital for all patients with advanced cancer. PMID:26324373

Interprofessional care co-ordinators: the benefits and tensions associated with a new role in UK acute health care.

PubMed

Bridges, Jackie; Meyer, Julienne; Glynn, Michael; Bentley, Jane; Reeves, Scott

2003-08-01

While more flexible models of service delivery are being introduced in UK health and social care, little is known about the impact of new roles, particularly support worker roles, on the work of existing practitioners. This action research study aimed to explore the impact of one such new role, that of interprofessional care co-ordinators (IPCCs). The general (internal) medical service of a UK hospital uses IPCCs to provide support to the interprofessional team and, in doing so, promote efficiency of acute bed use. Using a range of methods, mainly qualitative, this action research study sought to explore the characteristics and impact of the role on interprofessional team working. While the role's flexibility, autonomy and informality contributed to success in meeting its intended objectives, these characteristics also caused some tensions with interprofessional colleagues. These benefits and tensions mirror wider issues associated with the current modernisation agenda in UK health care.

Influence of soil sampling approaches in the evaluation of soil organic carbon stocks under different land uses in a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francaviglia, Rosa; Doro, Luca; Ledda, Luigi; Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz

2016-04-01

Different approaches of soil sampling can provide significantly different estimates of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCs) (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2015a). Many studies have focused on SOC distribution only in the biologically active layers of topsoil, the IPCC carbon accounting method estimates the change in SOC storage for the top 30 cm of a soil profile, and indeed limited data are available for SOCs below this depth. Moreover, SOC estimates are more uncertain in areas with heterogeneous land uses and pedoclimatic conditions such as Mediterranean environments, which are more prone to land degradation due to SOC degradation and depletion and erosive processes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2015). Anyhow, the open question is whether soil should be sampled following the pedogenetic horizons with soil entire soil approach (ESP), or along fixed depth increments using the soil control section method (SCS) (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2015b). In addition, SOCs are often not adjusted for the soil volume occupied by coarse fragments as recommended by the IPCC Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF (IPCC, 2003) accordingly to the equation: SOCs = SOC (g kg-1) × bulk density (Mg m-3) × depth (m) × (1 - coarse fragment) × 10. The work deals with the comparison of SOCs using the ESP and SCS approaches, applied to a study area of northeastern Sardinia (Italy) under typical agro-silvo-pastoral systems (Francaviglia et al., 2014). The area lies within a hilly basin where elevation is in the range 275-340 m a.s.l., and slope ranges from 2-6% to 16-30%. The local climate is warm temperate with dry and hot summers, mean annual rainfall is 623 mm (range 367-811mm) and mean annual temperature is 15.0° C (13.8-16.4° C). The area has the same soil type (Haplic Endoleptic Cambisols, Dystric) according to IUSS Working Group WRB (2006), and the following land uses with different levels of cropping intensification were compared: Tilled vineyards (Tv), No-tilled grassed vineyards (Ntgv), Hay crop (Hc), Pasture (P), Cork oak forest (Cof), former vineyards revegetated by Scrublands (Sfv), Mediterranean Maquis (Mmfv), and Helichrysum meadows (Hmfv). Average total SOCs were 128.0 and 140.6 Mg ha-1with the ESP and SCS approaches respectively if the coarse fraction is not included in the equation, 79.0 and 90.4 Mg ha-1when the coarse fraction is included. This indicates the importance to consider the coarse fraction when estimating SOC stocks, and an overestimation of SOCs when SCS sampling approach is adopted equal to about 16%. References Francaviglia, R., Benedetti, A., Doro, L., Madrau, S., Ledda, S., 2014. Influence of land use on soil quality and stratification ratios under agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 183, 86-92. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2003. In: Penman, J., Gytarsky, M., Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Kruger, D., Pipatti, R., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T., Tanabe, K., Wagner, F. (Eds.), Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. IPCC/OECD/IEA/IGES, Hayama, Japan. IUSS Working Group WRB, 2006.World reference base for soil resources 2006.World Soil Resources Reports No. 103. FAO, Rome. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Doro, L., Ledda, L., Francaviglia, R., 2015. Application of CarboSOIL model to predict the effects of climate change on soil organic carbon stocks in agro-silvo-pastoral Mediterranean management systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 202, 8-16. Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., Brevik, E. C., Cerdá, A., 2015a. Soil organic carbon stocks quanti?cation in Mediterranean natural areas, a trade-off between entire soil pro?les and soil control sections. EGU General Assembly. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 17, 2015-9865. Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., Brevik, E., C., Cerdá, A., 2015b. Soil organic carbon stocks assessment in Mediterranean natural areas: A comparison of entire soil profiles and soil control sections. Journal of Environmental Management, 155, 219-228.

76 FR 6651 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-07

... time that they accept the overall report. Principles and procedures for the IPCC and its preparation of..._documents/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf (pdf) http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization_procedures.shtml In.... The following section of the report discusses risk management at the local, national and international...

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that assessment [IPCC, 2005]. This paper extends a review of the treatment of uncertainty in the IPCC assessments by Swart et al [2009]. It is shown that progress towards consistency has been made but that there also appears to be a need for continued use of several complementary approaches in order to cover the wide range of circumstances across different disciplines involved in climate change. While this reflects the situation in the science community, it also raises the level of complexity for policymakers and other users of the assessments who would prefer one common consensus approach. References IPCC (2005), Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties, IPCC, Geneva. Manning, M., et al. (2004), IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options. IPCC Moss, R., and S. Schneider (2000), Uncertainties, in Guidance Papers on the Cross Cutting Issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, edited by R. Pachauri, et al., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva. Swart, R., et al. (2009), Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC Climatic Change, 92(1-2), 1 - 29.

Refining the intraoperative measurement of the distal intrapancreatic part of a choledochal cyst during laparoscopic repair allows near total excision.

PubMed

Koga, Hiroyuki; Okawada, Manabu; Doi, Takashi; Miyano, Go; Lane, Geoffrey J; Yamataka, Atsuyuki

2015-10-01

During surgery for choledochal cyst (CC), any intrapancreatic CC (IPCC) must also be excised to prevent postoperative pancreatitis and stone formation. We report our technique for laparoscopic total IPCC excision (n = 16; mean age 6.0 years). We insert a fine ureteroscope with a light source into the opened CC through an extra 3.9-mm trocar placed in the epigastrium through a minute incision to identify the pancreatic duct orifice. By pulling the end of the ureteroscope emerging from the trocar gently to withdraw the tip from the pancreatic duct to where distal dissection was ceased under laparoscopic view, the IPCC can be measured. If longer than 5 mm, the distal CC is dissected further caudally until it is less than 5 mm. For accuracy, the distal CC is elevated with a suture that is exteriorized and clamped to provide constant traction. The IPCC was able to be measured in 11/16 (68 %). Initial lengths measured were 3-10 mm (5.2 ± 2.7 mm). Final IPCC were all 5 mm or less. Surgery was uncomplicated without any pancreatic duct injury and postoperative recovery was unremarkable. Follow-up MRI at 32 months showed no IPCC in any case. Measuring the IPCC enables total CC excision, thus reducing the potential for postoperative complications.

75 FR 3516 - Invitation for Recommendations for U.S. Authors and Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-21

... Reviewers to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ACTION... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of State invites recommendations for... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which will be developed and finalized over the coming four years...

[The climate debate: the facts].

PubMed

van den Broeke, Michiel R

2009-01-01

The first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appeared almost 20 years ago. Environmental contamination has a negative effect on the environment in which we live. However, the public at large is confused about the ins and outs of climate change. Managers, politicians, various kinds of advisors, scientists, so-called experts, sceptics and journalists have all taken it upon themselves to lead the debate. Whose task is it to ensure a sound discussion? Surely it is the IPCC's task. However, most politicians and many journalists, and even many scientists, do not take the trouble to read the entire IPCC report or parts of it. As a consequence, much nonsense is published and broadcast. An effective procedure to deal with the climate problem starts with a fair discussion of the scientific evidence. My advice is: just read the free IPCC report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ and click on 'WG I The Physical Science Basis'.

Making LULUCF matrix of Korea by Approach 2&3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, J.; Jang, R.; Seong, M.; Yim, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2017-12-01

To establish and implement policies in response to climate change, it is very important to identify domestic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks, and accurately calculate emissions and removals from each source and sink. The IPCC Guideline requires the establishment of six sectors of energy, industrial processes, solvents and other product use, agriculture, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) and waste in estimating GHG inventories. LULUCF is divided into 6 categories according to land use, purpose, and type, and then it calculates greenhouse gas emission/absorption amount due to artificial activities according to each land use category and greenhouse gas emission/absorption amount according to land use change. The IPCC Guideline provides three approaches to how to create a LULUCF discipline matrix. According to the IPCC Guidelines, it is a principle to divide into the land use that is maintained and the land use area changed to other lands. However, Korea currently uses Approach 1, which is based on statistical data, it is difficult to detect changed area. Therefore, in this study, we are going to do a preliminary work for constructing the LULUCF matrix at Approach 2 & 3 level. NFI data, GIS, and RS data were used to build the matrix of Approach 2 method by Sampling method. For used for Approach 3, we analyzed the four thematic maps - Cadastral Map, Land Cover Map, Forest Type Map, and Biotope Map - representing land cover and utilization in terms of legal, property, quantitative and qualitative aspects. There is a difference between these maps because their purpose, resolution, timing and spatial range are different. Comparing these maps is important because it can help for decide map which is suitable for constructing the LULUCF matrix.Keywords: LULUCF, GIS/RS, IPCC Guideline, Approach 2&3, Thematic Maps

The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Joseph Buongiorno

2012-01-01

Projections for the United States and Canada to 2030 have been made with a global model to account for concurrent changes in other countries. Three future scenarios were investigated: two IPCC-based scenarios assuming the rapid growth of wood-based energy, and one IPCC-based scenario without this assumption. The model, under the IPCC scenarios, accounted for trends in...

Introducing Subgrid-scale convective cloud and aerosol interactions to the WRF-CMAQ integrated modeling system

EPA Science Inventory

Many regional and global climate models include aerosol indirect effects (AIE) on grid-scale/resolved clouds. However, the interaction between aerosols and convective clouds remains highly uncertain, as noted in the IPCC AR4 report. The objective of this work is to help fill in ...

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already been endorsed by many leading scientific professional societies and academies of science worldwide. These reports are considered as definitive summaries of the state of the science. In 2007, in recognition of its exceptional accomplishments, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize equally with Al Gore. The present era is characterized not only by the reality and seriousness of human-caused climate change, but also by a young yet powerful science that enables us to understand much about the climate change that has occurred already and that awaits in the future. The development of GCMs is a critical part of the scientific story, and the development of the IPCC is a key factor in connecting the science to the perceptions and priorities of the global public and policymakers. GCMs and the IPCC have co-evolved and strongly influenced one another, as both scientists and the world at large have worked to confront the challenge of climate change.

Uncertainty quantification of US Southwest climate from IPCC projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) made extensive use of coordinated simulations by 18 international modeling groups using a variety of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) with different numerics, algorithms, resolutions, physics models, and parameterizations. These simulations span the 20th century and provide forecasts for various carbon emissions scenarios in the 21st century. All the output from this panoply of models is made available to researchers on an archive maintained by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL. I have downloaded this data and completed the first steps toward a statisticalmore » analysis of these ensembles for the US Southwest. This constitutes the final report for a late start LDRD project. Complete analysis will be the subject of a forthcoming report.« less

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

2009-04-01

Drought has significant environmental and socio-economic impacts in Australia. Government assistance for drought events is guided by the current National Drought Policy (NDP). The Commonwealth Government provides support to farmers and rural communities under the Exceptional Circumstances (EC) arrangements and other drought programs, while state and territory governments also participate in the NDP and provide support measures of their own. To be classified as an EC event, the event must be rare, that is must not have occurred more than once on average in every 20-25 years. Given the likely increase in the area of the world affected by droughts in future due to climate change (IPCC, 2007), this paper presents assessments on how climate change may affect the concept of a one in 20-25 year event into the future for Australia. As droughts can be experienced and defined in different ways, many drought indices are available to monitor and to assess drought conditions. Commonly, these indices are categorised into four types: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic. The meteorological drought indices are more widely used because they require data that are readily available and that they are relatively easy to calculate. However, meteorological drought indices based on rainfall alone fail to include the important contribution of evaporation. Here, the assessment is made using outputs of 13 global climate models (GCMs) and a meteorological drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). It incorporates the aggregated deficits between the rainfall and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. If the RDI were the sole trigger for EC declarations, then the mean projections indicate that more declarations would be likely in the future. As a comparison, results from an assessment based on other measures (temperature, rainfall, and soil wetness) will also be presented. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007 - The physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

IPCC Report Calls Climate Changes Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-10-01

Warming of the Earth's climate "is unequivocal and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia," according to a new assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 27 September summary for policy makers of IPCC's report "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" also states that "it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Scientific Integrity and Consensus in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, K.

2017-12-01

Scientific integrity is the hallmark of any assessment and is a paramount consideration in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. Procedures are in place for rigorous scientific review and to quantify confidence levels and uncertainty in the communication of key findings. However, the IPCC is unique in that its reports are formally accepted by governments through consensus agreement. This presentation will present the unique requirements of the IPCC intergovernmental assessment and discuss the advantages and challenges of its approach.

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries.

PubMed

Mach, Katharine J; Freeman, Patrick T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Field, Christopher B

2016-08-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report's summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain.

Maynard Participation in Alaska Forum on the Environment Panel Discussion on Increasing Input to the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Processes from Alaska, with Emphasis on Indigenous Peoples Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2012-01-01

Dr. Nancy Maynard was invited by the Alaska Forum on the Environment to participate in a Panel Discussion to discuss (1) background about what the US NCA and International IPCC assessments are, (2) the impact the assessments have on policy-making, (3) the process for participation in both assessments, (4) how we can increase participation by Indigenous Peoples such as Native Americans and Alaska Natives, (5) How we can increase historical and current impacts input from Native communities through stories, oral history, "grey" literature, etc. The session will be chaired by Dr. Bull Bennett, a cochair of the US NCA's chapter on "Native and Tribal Lands and Resources" and Dr. Maynard is the other co-chair of that chapter and they will discuss the latest activities under the NCA process relevant to Native Americans and Alaska Natives. Dr. Maynard is also a Lead Author of the "Polar Regions" chapter of the IPCC WG2 (5th Assessment) and she will describes some of the latest approaches by the IPCC to entrain more Indigenous peoples into the IPCC process.

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

An inventory of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture in the UK using the IPCC methodology: emission estimate, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Armstrong Brown, S.; Jarvis, S. C.; Syed, B.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Phillips, V. R.; Sneath, R. W.; Pain, B. F.

Nitrous oxide emission from UK agriculture was estimated, using the IPCC default values of all emission factors and parameters, to be 87 Gg N 2O-N in both 1990 and 1995. This estimate was shown, however, to have an overall uncertainty of 62%. The largest component of the emission (54%) was from the direct (soil) sector. Two of the three emission factors applied within the soil sector, EF1 (direct emission from soil) and EF3 PRP (emission from pasture range and paddock) were amongst the most influential on the total estimate, producing a ±31 and +11% to -17% change in emissions, respectively, when varied through the IPCC range from the default value. The indirect sector (from leached N and deposited ammonia) contributed 29% of the total emission, and had the largest uncertainty (126%). The factors determining the fraction of N leached (Frac LEACH) and emissions from it (EF5), were the two most influential. These parameters are poorly specified and there is great potential to improve the emission estimate for this component. Use of mathematical models (NCYCLE and SUNDIAL) to predict Frac LEACH suggested that the IPCC default value for this parameter may be too high for most situations in the UK. Comparison with other UK-derived inventories suggests that the IPCC methodology may overestimate emission. Although the IPCC approach includes additional components to the other inventories (most notably emission from indirect sources), estimates for the common components (i.e. fertiliser and animals), and emission factors used, are higher than those of other inventories. Whilst it is recognised that the IPCC approach is generalised in order to allow widespread applicability, sufficient data are available to specify at least two of the most influential parameters, i.e. EF1 and Frac LEACH, more accurately, and so provide an improved estimate of nitrous oxide emissions from UK agriculture.

;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

2017-02-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the "degree of agreement." Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

The Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) Second Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), and the UCCRN Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Ali Ibrahim, S.

2015-12-01

The objective of this session is to foster a dialogue between experts working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers. We will present the UCCRN and the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), the second in an ongoing series of global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessments to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities. This is an especially important time to examine these issues. Cities continue to act as world leaders in climate action. Several major climate change assessment efforts are in full swing, at a crucial stage where significant opportunities for the co-production of knowledge between researchers and stakeholders exist. The IPCC AR5 Working Group II and III Reports have placed unprecedented attention on cities and urbanization and their connection to the issue of climate change. Concurrently several major, explicitly city-focused efforts have emerged from the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), ICLEI, the Durban Adaptation Charter (DAC), C40, Future Earth, and the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project, among others. The underlying rationale for the discussion will be to identify methods and approaches to further foster the development and dissemination of new climate change knowledge and information that will be useful for cities, especially in small and medium-sized cities and in the developing country context where the demand is particularly acute. Participants will leave this session with: · The latest scientific data and state-of-the-knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change · Emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers and for urban resilience and adaptation action · How practitioner-scientist interactions can work best · Synergies between the IPCC, ARC3, and other climate and cities assessments

A multistage crucible of revision and approval shapes IPCC policymaker summaries

PubMed Central

Mach, Katharine J.; Freeman, Patrick T.; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Field, Christopher B.

2016-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) member governments approve each report’s summary for policymakers (SPM) by consensus, discussing and agreeing on each sentence in a plenary session with scientist authors. A defining feature of IPCC assessment, the governmental approval process builds joint ownership of current knowledge by scientists and governments. The resulting SPM revisions have been extensively discussed in anecdotes, interviews, and perspectives, but they have not been comprehensively analyzed. We provide an in-depth evaluation of IPCC SPM revisions, establishing an evidential basis for understanding their nature. Revisions associated with governmental review and approval generally expand SPMs, with SPM text growing by 17 to 53% across recent assessment reports. Cases of high political sensitivity and failure to reach consensus are notable exceptions, resulting in SPM contractions. In contrast to recent claims, we find that IPCC SPMs are as readable, for multiple metrics of reading ease, as other professionally edited assessment summaries. Across reading-ease metrics, some SPMs become more readable through governmental review and approval, whereas others do not. In an SPM examined through the entire revision process, most revisions associated with governmental review and approval occurred before the start of the government-approval plenary session. These author revisions emphasize clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation. In contrast, the subsequent plenary revisions place greater emphasis especially on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. Overall, the value added by the IPCC process emerges in a multistage crucible of revision and approval, as individuals together navigate complex science-policy terrain. PMID:27532046

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Voice over internet protocol with prepaid calling card solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunadi, Tri

2001-07-01

The VoIP technology is growing up rapidly, it has big network impact on PT Telkom Indonesia, the bigger telecommunication operator in Indonesia. Telkom has adopted VoIP and one other technology, Intelligent Network (IN). We develop those technologies together in one service product, called Internet Prepaid Calling Card (IPCC). IPCC is becoming new breakthrough for the Indonesia telecommunication services especially on VoIP and Prepaid Calling Card solutions. Network architecture of Indonesia telecommunication consists of three layer, Local, Tandem and Trunck Exchange layer. Network development researches for IPCC architecture are focus on network overlay hierarchy, Internet and PSTN. With this design hierarchy the goal of Interworking PSTN, VoIP and IN calling card, become reality. Overlay design for IPCC is not on Trunck Exchange, this is the new architecture, these overlay on Tandem and Local Exchange, to make the faster call processing. The nodes added: Gateway (GW) and Card Management Center (CMC) The GW do interfacing between PSTN and Internet Network used ISDN-PRA and Ethernet. The other functions are making bridge on circuit (PSTN) with packet (VoIP) based and real time billing process. The CMC used for data storage, pin validation, report activation, tariff system, directory number and all the administration transaction. With two nodes added the IPCC service offered to the market.

Evaluation of Global Observations-Based Evapotranspiration Datasets and IPCC AR4 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, B.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Jimenez, C.; Corti, T.; Hirschi, M.; Balsamo, G.; Ciais, P.; Dirmeyer, P.; Fisher, J. B.; Guo, Z.;

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC: a philosophical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebeile, J.; Drouet, I.

2014-12-01

The IPCC produces scientific reports out of findings on climate and climate change. Because the findings are uncertain in many respects, the production of reports requires aggregating assessments of uncertainties of different kinds. This difficult task is currently regulated by the Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC fifth assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. The note recommends that two metrics—i.e. confidence and likelihood— be used for communicating the degree of certainty in findings. Confidence is expressed qualitatively "based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence […] and the degree of agreement", while likelihood is expressed probabilistically "based on statistical analysis of observations or model results, or expert judgment". Therefore, depending on the evidence evaluated, authors have the choice to present either an assigned level of confidence or a quantified measure of likelihood. But aggregating assessments of uncertainties of these two different kinds express distinct and conflicting methodologies. So the question arises whether the treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC is rationally justified. In order to answer the question, it is worth comparing the IPCC procedures with the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality which have been developed by philosophers. These theories—which include contributions to the philosophy of probability and to bayesian probabilistic confirmation theory—are relevant for our purpose because they are commonly used to assess the rationality of common collective jugement formation based on uncertain knowledge. In this paper we make the comparison and pursue the following objectives: i/we determine whether the IPCC confidence and likelihood can be compared with the notions of uncertainty targeted by or underlying the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality; ii/we investigate whether the formal normative theories of epistemic rationality justify treating uncertainty along those two dimensions, and indicate how this can be avoided.

How IPCC Science-Policy Interactions Shape Its Policymaker Summaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mach, K. J.; Freeman, P. T.; Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.

2016-12-01

Government approval is a defining feature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment process. In plenary sessions with scientist authors, IPCC member governments discuss and agree each sentence of every report's summary for policymakers (SPM). This consensus-based approval builds joint ownership of scientific knowledge by both scientists and governments. The approval process and its resulting SPM revisions have received extensive attention in published anecdotes and perspectives, but without comprehensive evaluation to date. We present the results of an in-depth analysis of IPCC SPM revisions, providing an evidence basis for understanding a complex science-policy interaction. Revisions resulting from governmental review and approval expand SPMs. SPM text lengthens by 17 to 53% in recent assessment summaries. Political sensitivities and associated failures of consensus have led to prominent exceptions resulting in SPM contractions. Contrasting recent assertions, we find IPCC SPMs to be as readable as other professionally edited assessment summaries, for multiple measures of reading ease. Across metrics, some SPMs, but not all, become more readable through the revision process. We additionally examine each revision in an SPM for which we have deep familiarity. Most of the SPM's revisions occur prior to the in-person government-approval session, and they emphasize different purposes compared to revisions made during the approval session. Revisions prior to the in-person session largely pertain to clarity, scientific rigor, and explanation, whereas the subsequent in-person government-approval revisions place more emphasis on policy relevance, comprehensiveness of examples, and nuances of expert judgment. The value added in the IPCC government-approval process emerges through multiple stages of revision and approval, as scientists and governments together navigate a complex science-policy interaction.

Five millennia of frozen vegetation and fire dynamics from an ice core in the Mongolian Altai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brügger, S. O.; Gobet, E.; Sigl, M.; Osmont, D.; Papina, T.; Rudaya, N.; Schwikowski, M.; Tinner, W.

2017-12-01

The steppes of the Altai region in Central Asia are highly vulnerable to e.g. drought and overgrazing. Degradation during the past decades may undermine their resilience under global change conditions. Knowledge about past vegetation and fire dynamics in Mongolian Altai may contribute to a better understanding of future climate and human impact responses, however, paleo records are scarce in the area. Our novel high-alpine ice record from Tsambagarav glacier (48°39.338'N, 90°50.826'E, 4130m asl) in the Mongolian Altai provides unique paleoenvironmental informations at the landscape scale. The site is surrounded by dry steppes with scattered boreal tree stands. We assume that the site collects pollen and spores within several hundred km. The archive provides an exceptional temporal resolution with a sound chronology covering the past 5500 years (Herren et al. 2013). Microfossil analysis allows to reconstruct large-scale fire and vegetation dynamics to gain a better understanding of the timing and causes of late Holocene response variability. We use pollen as proxies for vegetation composition and structure, microscopic charcoal as a proxy for fire activity (Eichler et al. 2011), and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs or soots) as a proxy for fossil fuel combustion. Here we present the first microscopic charcoal record from Mongolia and link it to vegetation dynamics of the past. The reconstructed mid to late Holocene forest collapses likely in response to climate change underscore the vulnerability of relict forest ecosystems in the Mongolian Altai. Our multiproxy-study suggests that moisture is more important than temperature for forest preservation. The lacking resilience of vegetation to moisture changes in the past emphasizes the vulnerability of large forests in neighboring dry areas such as the Russian Altai, if global warming is associated to moisture declines as future projections forecast (IPCC; Climate Change 2013). References: Eichler et al. (2011). An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250. Quat Sci Rev 30(9) Herren et al. (2013). The onset of Neoglaciation 6000 years ago in western Mongolia revealed by an ice core from the Tsambagarav mountain range. Quat Sci Rev 69 IPCC; Climate Change (2013): The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group I Contribution to AR5

Characteristics of the early immune response following transplantation of mouse ES cell derived insulin-producing cell clusters.

PubMed

Boyd, Ashleigh S; Wood, Kathryn J

2010-06-04

The fully differentiated progeny of ES cells (ESC) may eventually be used for cell replacement therapy (CRT). However, elements of the innate immune system may contribute to damage or destruction of these tissues when transplanted. Herein, we assessed the hitherto ill-defined contribution of the early innate immune response in CRT after transplantation of either ESC derived insulin producing cell clusters (IPCCs) or adult pancreatic islets. Ingress of neutrophil or macrophage cells was noted immediately at the site of IPCC transplantation, but this infiltration was attenuated by day three. Gene profiling identified specific inflammatory cytokines and chemokines that were either absent or sharply reduced by three days after IPCC transplantation. Thus, IPCC transplantation provoked less of an early immune response than pancreatic islet transplantation. Our study offers insights into the characteristics of the immune response of an ESC derived tissue in the incipient stages following transplantation and suggests potential strategies to inhibit cell damage to ensure their long-term perpetuation and functionality in CRT.

Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Etminan, M.; Myhre, G.; Highwood, E. J.; Shine, K. P.

2016-12-01

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well-mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750-2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m-2 to 0.61 W m-2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750-2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

IPCC Methodologies for the Waste Sector: Past, Present, and Future

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The reporting of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions began more than a decade ago by the signatory countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). National GHG inventories rely on the evolving Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) national GHG inventor...

Southern America stratospheric ozone variation during the last decade (1996-2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imai, T.; Martin, I.; Iha, K.; Souza, S.

Stratospheric ozone variation in the last decade reveals important dynamics of environmental areas in Brazil possible to be correlated with natural disasters like droughts in the Amazon region and the first hurricane observed in Santa Catarina at sea temperatures bellow 22 r C in South America A team of 74 ozone specialists lead by Prof Fahey from 1965 to 2001 elaborated a very well known graphic The graphic shows that the global ozone remained constant from 1965 to 1980 with 3 000 megatons of Global Ozone when it started to quickly decline in approximately 3 or 80 megatons per year In 2001 more than 50 of the ozone was depleted IPCC specialists recognize the ozone depletion of Fahey studies in the IPCC 2001 8-1 decision the Climate Change and the Ozone Depletion In 2002 Fahey s works went through a deep methodological conference being approved by 44 more specialists in Atmospheric Chemistry in Les Diabretes Switzerland The ozone hole after 1985 reached about 27 millions km 2 or 5 of the surface of the Planet and there practically all the stratospheric ozone annually disappeared in the beginning of October Projecting these figures until 2005 we reached 70 when Katrina Hurricane and Amazons River drought happens and in 2015 the depletion will reach 100 But between 2003 and 2005 the IPCC using the same graphic and exchanging the annual loss of ozone quota for deviation specialist starts saying that the problem will be solved in 2050 That the biggest deviation of --5 was in 1993

Establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems in African countries for Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirth, T. C.; Troxler, T.

2015-12-01

As signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developing countries are required to produce greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories every two years. For many developing countries, including many of those in Africa, this is a significant challenge as it requires establishing a robust and sustainable GHG inventory system. In order to help support these efforts, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has worked in collaboration with the UNFCCC to assist African countries in establishing sustainable GHG inventory systems and generating high-quality inventories on a regular basis. The sectors we have focused on for these GHG inventory capacity building efforts in Africa are Agriculture and Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) as these tend to represent a significant portion of their GHG emissions profile and the data requirements and methodologies are often more complex than for other sectors. To support these efforts, the U.S. EPA has provided technical assistance in understanding the methods in the IPCC Guidelines, assembling activity data and emission factors, including developing land-use maps for representing a country's land base, and implementing the calculations. EPA has also supported development of various tools such as a Template Workbook that helps the country build the institutional arrangement and strong documentation that are necessary for generating GHG inventories on a regular basis, as well as performing other procedures as identified by IPCC Good Practice Guidance such as quality assurance/quality control, key category analysis and archiving. Another tool used in these projects and helps country's implement the methods from the IPCC Guidelines for the Agriculture and LULUCF sectors is the Agriculture and Land Use (ALU) tool. This tool helps countries assemble the activity data and emission factors, including supporting the import of GIS maps, and applying the equations from the IPPC Guidelines to estimate the carbon stock changes and emissions of non-CO2 GHG for all land uses and management practices as identified in the IPCC Guidelines at the Tier 1 or Tier 2 level.

Finding the CO[subscript 2] Culprit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clary, Renee; Wandersee, James

2015-01-01

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fifth report, attributing 95% of "all" climate warming--from the 1950s through today--to humans. Not only did the report--like previous IPCC reports dating back to 1990--accredit global warming to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, but over time the vast…

Climate, Water and Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2003-04-01

In light of the recent IPCC Climate Change Assessment and recent progress made in meteorological and hydrological modelling, the directors of the Nordic hydrological institutes (CHIN) initiated a research project "Climate, Water and Energy" (CWE) with funding from the Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic Council of Ministers focusing on climatic impact assessment in the energy sector. Climatic variability and change affect the hydrological systems, which in turn affect the energy sector, this will increase the risk associated with the development and use of water resources in the Nordic countries. Within the CWE project four thematic groups work on this issue of climatic change and how changes in precipitation and temperature will have direct influences on runoff. A primary aim of the CWE climate group is to derive a common scenario or a "best-guess" estimate of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent regional climate change experiments and representing the change from 1990 to 2050 under the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. A data set, along with the most important information for using the scenario is available at the project web site. The glacier group has chosen 8 glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. The long time series group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group will select and quality control time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. The hydrological modelling group has reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios, while production of new results based on the composite scenario from the CWE-climate group depends on other projects. The product of the project will be an in-depth analysis of the present status of research and know-how in the sphere of climatic and hydrological research in the Nordic countries. It will be a synthesis and integration of present research with focus on the needs of the energy sector. It will also identify and prioritise key future research areas that are of benefit to the energy sector.

Evaluating the use of verbal probability expressions to communicate likelihood information in IPCC reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Adam

2014-05-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prescribes that the communication of risk and uncertainty information pertaining to scientific reports, model predictions etc. be communicated with a set of 7 likelihood expressions. These range from "Extremely likely" (intended to communicate a likelihood of greater than 99%) through "As likely as not" (33-66%) to "Extremely unlikely" (less than 1%). Psychological research has investigated the degree to which these expressions are interpreted as intended by the IPCC, both within and across cultures. I will present a selection of this research and demonstrate some problems associated with communicating likelihoods in this way, as well as suggesting some potential improvements.

GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH NEWS #3: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON "LAND USE, LAND USE CHANGE, AND FORESTRY"

EPA Science Inventory

ORD is participating in the development of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on "Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry." Preparation of the Special Report was requested by the Conference of the Parties(COP) to the United Nations Framework Conve...

76 FR 45077 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for Ipomopsis...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-27

... and heat waves over most land areas will likely increase (IPCC 2007, pp. 13, 53). The IPCC predicts..., future projections for the Southwest include increased temperatures; more intense and longer-lasting heat..., droughty, and deficient in nutrients. Species that occupy such sites have been called ``stress- tolerators...

Temporal Considerations of Carbon Sequestration in LCA

Treesearch

James Salazar; Richard Bergman

2013-01-01

Accounting for carbon sequestration in LCA illustrates the limitations of a single global warming characterization factor. Typical cradle-to-grave LCA models all emissions from end-of-life processes and then characterizes these flows by IPCC GWP (100-yr) factors. A novel method estimates climate change impact by characterizing annual emissions with the IPCC GHG forcing...

Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K. C. Benita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or "anthropogenic" activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes...

Characteristics of the Early Immune Response Following Transplantation of Mouse ES Cell Derived Insulin-Producing Cell Clusters

PubMed Central

Boyd, Ashleigh S.; Wood, Kathryn J.

2010-01-01

Background The fully differentiated progeny of ES cells (ESC) may eventually be used for cell replacement therapy (CRT). However, elements of the innate immune system may contribute to damage or destruction of these tissues when transplanted. Methodology/Principal Findings Herein, we assessed the hitherto ill-defined contribution of the early innate immune response in CRT after transplantation of either ESC derived insulin producing cell clusters (IPCCs) or adult pancreatic islets. Ingress of neutrophil or macrophage cells was noted immediately at the site of IPCC transplantation, but this infiltration was attenuated by day three. Gene profiling identified specific inflammatory cytokines and chemokines that were either absent or sharply reduced by three days after IPCC transplantation. Thus, IPCC transplantation provoked less of an early immune response than pancreatic islet transplantation. Conclusions/Significance Our study offers insights into the characteristics of the immune response of an ESC derived tissue in the incipient stages following transplantation and suggests potential strategies to inhibit cell damage to ensure their long-term perpetuation and functionality in CRT. PMID:20532031

The study on biomass fraction estimate methodology of municipal solid waste incinerator in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Seongmin; Kim, Seungjin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Yun, Hyunki; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2016-10-01

In Korea, the amount of greenhouse gases released due to waste materials was 14,800,000 t CO2eq in 2012, which increased from 5,000,000 t CO2eq in 2010. This included the amount released due to incineration, which has gradually increased since 2010. Incineration was found to be the biggest contributor to greenhouse gases, with 7,400,000 t CO2eq released in 2012. Therefore, with regards to the trading of greenhouse gases emissions initiated in 2015 and the writing of the national inventory report, it is important to increase the reliability of the measurements related to the incineration of waste materials. This research explored methods for estimating the biomass fraction at Korean MSW incinerator facilities and compared the biomass fractions obtained with the different biomass fraction estimation methods. The biomass fraction was estimated by the method using default values of fossil carbon fraction suggested by IPCC, the method using the solid waste composition, and the method using incinerator flue gas. The highest biomass fractions in Korean municipal solid waste incinerator facilities were estimated by the IPCC Default method, followed by the MSW analysis method and the Flue gas analysis method. Therefore, the difference in the biomass fraction estimate was the greatest between the IPCC Default and the Flue gas analysis methods. The difference between the MSW analysis and the flue gas analysis methods was smaller than the difference with IPCC Default method. This suggested that the use of the IPCC default method cannot reflect the characteristics of Korean waste incinerator facilities and Korean MSW. Incineration is one of most effective methods for disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW). This paper investigates the applicability of using biomass content to estimate the amount of CO2 released, and compares the biomass contents determined by different methods in order to establish a method for estimating biomass in the MSW incinerator facilities of Korea. After analyzing the biomass contents of the collected solid waste samples and the flue gas samples, the results were compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method, and it seems that to calculate the biomass fraction it is better to use the flue gas analysis method than the IPCC method. It is valuable to design and operate a real new incineration power plant, especially for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Future Projections of ENSO and Drought (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cane, M. A.

2009-12-01

Jule Charney, who was my advisor, worked very broadly - and profoundly - on climate dynamics. In this discussion of the present state of knowledge I will focus on two aspects of climate that I view as legacies of his work: our ability to project climate variability in the tropics and to project drought. (I have in mind his work with Shukla on predictability of monsoons, and Charney 1975, Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel., Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 193-202). First, I will consider the projections of ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation) in a warming world. (My own interest in ENSO was piqued in discussions with Charney and others during the ENSO-influenced blocking events in the late 1970s; in good measure, the approach I took to understanding and modeling ENSO was based in my thesis work.) Current IPCC models differ markedly in their projections of the mean state of the equatorial Pacific, some favoring a more “El Niño- like”, some the opposite. Possible reasons for these disagreements will be considered in the light of our understanding of ENSO and tropical climate more generally. Observational data for the past century and a half will figure prominently. Droughts in the US Southwest have a strong ENSO signal, but IPCC models are fairly consistent in projecting enhanced drought there. The reasons for this will be discussed. Models are less consistent in their predictions of the future Sahel. I will discuss what is understood about causes of drought in the Sahel, which appear to point toward sea surface temperature as the controlling influence, in contrast to Charney’s albedo hypothesis.

Harvested wood products : basis for future methodological development

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog

2003-01-01

The IPCC Guidelines (IPCC 1997) provide an outline of how harvested wood could be treated in national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. This section shows the relation of that outline to the approaches and estimation methods to be presented in this Appendix. Wood and paper products are referred to as harvested wood products (HWP). It does not include carbon in...

IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Warren, Rachel; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kopp, Robert E.; Pörtner, Hans O.; Scholes, Robert; Birkmann, Joern; Foden, Wendy; Licker, Rachel; Mach, Katharine J.; Marbaix, Phillippe; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Price, Jeff; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Yohe, Gary

2017-01-01

The reasons for concern framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, now a cornerstone of the IPCC assessments, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change. We review the framework's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report, confirming those judgments in most cases in the light of more recent literature and identifying their limitations. We point to extensions of the framework that offer complementary climate change metrics to global mean temperature change and better account for possible changes in social and ecological system vulnerability. Further research should systematically evaluate risks under alternative scenarios of future climatic and societal conditions.

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

PubMed

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-02-27

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women's views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Climate for women in climate science: Women scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Gay-Antaki, Miriam; Liverman, Diana

2018-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an authoritative and influential source of reports on climate change. The lead authors of IPCC reports include scientists from around the world, but questions have been raised about the dominance of specific disciplines in the report and the disproportionate number of scholars from the Global North. In this paper, we analyze the as-yet-unexamined issue of gender and IPCC authorship, looking at changes in gender balance over time and analyzing women’s views about their experience and barriers to full participation, not only as women but also at the intersection of nationality, race, command of English, and discipline. Over time, we show that the proportion of female IPCC authors has seen a modest increase from less than 5% in 1990 to more than 20% in the most recent assessment reports. Based on responses from over 100 women IPCC authors, we find that many women report a positive experience in the way in which they are treated and in their ability to influence the report, although others report that some women were poorly represented and heard. We suggest that an intersectional lens is important: not all women experience the same obstacles: they face multiple and diverse barriers associated with social identifiers such as race, nationality, command of English, and disciplinary affiliation. The scientific community benefits from including all scientists, including women and those from the Global South. This paper documents barriers to participation and identifies opportunities to diversify climate science. PMID:29440422

Regional landfills methane emission inventory in Malaysia.

PubMed

Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Noor Ezlin Ahmad Basri; Basri, Hassan; Ahmed Hussein El-Shafie; Kadhum, Abdul Amir H

2011-08-01

The decomposition of municipal solid waste (MSW) in landfills under anaerobic conditions produces landfill gas (LFG) containing approximately 50-60% methane (CH(4)) and 30-40% carbon dioxide (CO(2)) by volume. CH(4) has a global warming potential 21 times greater than CO(2); thus, it poses a serious environmental problem. As landfills are the main method for waste disposal in Malaysia, the major aim of this study was to estimate the total CH(4) emissions from landfills in all Malaysian regions and states for the year 2009 using the IPCC, 1996 first-order decay (FOD) model focusing on clean development mechanism (CDM) project applications to initiate emission reductions. Furthermore, the authors attempted to assess, in quantitative terms, the amount of CH(4) that would be emitted from landfills in the period from 1981-2024 using the IPCC 2006 FOD model. The total CH(4) emission using the IPCC 1996 model was estimated to be 318.8 Gg in 2009. The Northern region had the highest CH(4) emission inventory, with 128.8 Gg, whereas the Borneo region had the lowest, with 24.2 Gg. It was estimated that Pulau Penang state produced the highest CH(4) emission, 77.6 Gg, followed by the remaining states with emission values ranging from 38.5 to 1.5 Gg. Based on the IPCC 1996 FOD model, the total Malaysian CH( 4) emission was forecast to be 397.7 Gg by 2020. The IPCC 2006 FOD model estimated a 201 Gg CH(4) emission in 2009, and estimates ranged from 98 Gg in 1981 to 263 Gg in 2024.

High Spatial Resolution Forecasting of Long-Term Monthly Precipitation and Mean Temperature Trends in Data Scarce Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosier, T. M.; Hill, D. F.; Sharp, K. V.

2013-12-01

High spatial resolution time-series data are critical for many hydrological and earth science studies. Multiple groups have developed historical and forecast datasets of high-resolution monthly time-series for regions of the world such as the United States (e.g. PRISM for hindcast data and MACA for long-term forecasts); however, analogous datasets have not been available for most data scarce regions. The current work fills this data need by producing and freely distributing hindcast and forecast time-series datasets of monthly precipitation and mean temperature for all global land surfaces, gridded at a 30 arc-second resolution. The hindcast data are constructed through a Delta downscaling method, using as inputs 0.5 degree monthly time-series and 30 arc-second climatology global weather datasets developed by Willmott & Matsuura and WorldClim, respectively. The forecast data are formulated using a similar downscaling method, but with an additional step to remove bias from the climate variable's probability distribution over each region of interest. The downscaling package is designed to be compatible with a number of general circulation models (GCM) (e.g. with GCMs developed for the IPCC AR4 report and CMIP5), and is presently implemented using time-series data from the NCAR CESM1 model in conjunction with 30 arc-second future decadal climatologies distributed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research. The resulting downscaled datasets are 30 arc-second time-series forecasts of monthly precipitation and mean temperature available for all global land areas. As an example of these data, historical and forecast 30 arc-second monthly time-series from 1950 through 2070 are created and analyzed for the region encompassing Pakistan. For this case study, forecast datasets corresponding to the future representative concentration pathways 45 and 85 scenarios developed by the IPCC are presented and compared. This exercise highlights a range of potential meteorological trends for the Pakistan region and more broadly serves to demonstrate the utility of the presented 30 arc-second monthly precipitation and mean temperature datasets for use in data scarce regions.

Adaptation strategies to climate change in the Arctic: a global patchwork of reactive community-scale initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, Tatiana V.

2014-11-01

Arctic regions have experienced and will continue to experience the greatest rates of warming compared to any other region of the world. The people living in the Arctic are considered among most vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change ranging from decline in natural resources to increasing mental health concerns (IPCC 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). A meta-analysis study by Ford et al (2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 104005) has assessed the volume, scope and geographic distribution of reported in the English language peer-reviewed literature initiatives for adaptation to climate change in the Arctic. Their analysis highlights the reactive nature of the adopted policies with a strong emphasis on local and community-level policies mostly targeting indigenous population in Canada and Alaska. The study raises concerns about the lack of monitoring and evaluation mechanism to track the success rate of the existing policies and the need for long-term strategic planning in adaption policies spanning international boundaries and including all groups of population.

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

D. T. Price; D. W. McKenney; L. A. Joyce; R. M. Siltanen; P. Papadopol; K. Lawrence

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCMs) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely scenarios A2, A1B, and B1 of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were...

Framing the future in the Southern United States climate, land use, and forest conditions

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Thomas L. Mote; J. Marshall Shepherd; K.C. Binita; Christopher W. Strother

2014-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, with 90% certainty, that human or “anthropogenic” activities (emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and pollution, landuse/ land-cover change) have altered global temperature patterns over the past 100-150 years (IPCC 2007a). Such temperature changes have a set of cascading, and sometimes amplifying...

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?

PubMed

Fischer, Helen; Schütte, Stefanie; Depoux, Anneliese; Amelung, Dorothee; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-27

Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.

Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models

PubMed Central

Sugiyama, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita

2010-01-01

Precipitation extreme changes are often assumed to scale with, or are constrained by, the change in atmospheric moisture content. Studies have generally confirmed the scaling based on moisture content for the midlatitudes but identified deviations for the tropics. In fact half of the twelve selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models exhibit increases faster than the climatological-mean precipitable water change for high percentiles of tropical daily precipitation, albeit with significant intermodel scatter. Decomposition of the precipitation extreme changes reveals that the variations among models can be attributed primarily to the differences in the upward velocity. Both the amplitude and vertical profile of vertical motion are found to affect precipitation extremes. A recently proposed scaling that incorporates these dynamical effects can capture the basic features of precipitation changes in both the tropics and midlatitudes. In particular, the increases in tropical precipitation extremes significantly exceed the precipitable water change in Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a coupled general circulation model with the highest resolution among IPCC climate models whose precipitation characteristics have been shown to reasonably match those of observations. The expected intensification of tropical disturbances points to the possibility of precipitation extreme increases beyond the moisture content increase as is found in MIROC and some of IPCC models. PMID:20080720

Using pan-tropical biomass maps to improve IPCC Tier 1 default level emission factors - a case study for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langner, Andreas; Achard, Frédéric; Grassi, Giacomo

2014-05-01

The IPCC proposes three Tier levels for greenhouse gas emission monitoring with a hierarchical order in terms of accuracy as well as data requirements/complexity. While Tier 1 provides default above-ground biomass (AGB) values per ecological zone and continent, Tier 2 and 3 are either based on country-specific remote sensing or permanent sample-plot data. Due to missing capacities most developing countries have to rely on Tier 1 default values, which show highest uncertainties. Furthermore, IPCC Tier 1 values lack transparency as they are based on a variety of studies that have been repeatedly updated and combined with expert opinions, thus blurring the original data sources. A possible way to increase credibility is a conservative monitoring approach, following the principle of conservativeness, thus reducing the likelihood of unjustified payments for emission reductions not reflecting reality. For the implementation of that principle knowledge about the distribution of the biomass within each ecological zone is essential. However, such information is not available for the IPCC Tier 1 values, which only provide mean values and/or AGB ranges that are not based on a common statistical analysis. Using the pan-tropical datasets of Saatchi et al (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108, 9899-9904, 2011; 1km spatial resolution) and Baccini et al (Nat Climate Change, 2:182-185, 2012; 500m spatial resolution) we calculated the mean AGB values as well as their 50% confidence intervals for each ecological zone within the DRC using Globcover2009 as forest/non-forest mask and the FAO ecological zones dataset. Such analysis is more transparent while at the same time leading to "statistically improved" Tier 1 values, potentially allowing a conservative monitoring approach by selecting the lower bound of the confidence interval for emission estimation during the reference period and the higher bound for the assessment period. Within the DRC Baccini generally delivers higher AGB estimates than Saatchi but even Baccini shows between 81t/ha and 143t/ha lower estimates for Tropical Rain Forests and Moist Deciduous Forests respectively than IPCC. While the AGB values for Tropical Dry Forest of both maps are similar to the IPCC, Tropical Mountain Systems cannot easily be compared as their IPCC data lack a mean value. A recent study by Mitchard et al (Carbon Balance and Management, 8, 10, 2013) compared both pan-tropical datasets, pointing out notable differences in the Congo basin. However, their analysis revealed that none of both maps is generally superior. Therefore, we suggest using the average of both maps as a reasonable approximation to the real but unknown AGB values, thus resulting in 213±69t/ha for Tropical Rain Forests, 94±19t/ha for Moist Deciduous Forests, 119±31t/ha for Tropical Dry Forests and 182±61t/ha for Tropical Mountain Systems of the DRC while the corresponding IPCC values are 310t/ha, 260t/ha, 120t/ha and 40-190t/ha.

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-04-02

This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators andmore » stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)/NOAA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute (USC/ISI). All ESG-CET work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Through the ESG project, the ESG-CET team has developed and delivered a production environment for climate data from multiple climate model sources (e.g., CMIP (IPCC), CESM, ocean model data (e.g., Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (e.g., Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Microwave Limb Sounder), and analysis and visualization tools) that serves a worldwide climate research community. Data holdings are distributed across multiple sites including LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL as well as unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), and NASA/JPL. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users who want to understand it, process it, extract value from it, visualize it, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort is extremely large and complex, but it will be incredibly valuable for building 'science gateways' to critical climate resources (such as CESM, CMIP5, ARM, NARCCAP, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), etc.) for processing the next IPCC assessment report. Continued ESG progress will result in a production-scale system that will empower scientists to attempt new and exciting data exchanges, which could ultimately lead to breakthrough climate science discoveries.« less

iPcc: a novel feature extraction method for accurate disease class discovery and prediction

PubMed Central

Ren, Xianwen; Wang, Yong; Zhang, Xiang-Sun; Jin, Qi

2013-01-01

Gene expression profiling has gradually become a routine procedure for disease diagnosis and classification. In the past decade, many computational methods have been proposed, resulting in great improvements on various levels, including feature selection and algorithms for classification and clustering. In this study, we present iPcc, a novel method from the feature extraction perspective to further propel gene expression profiling technologies from bench to bedside. We define ‘correlation feature space’ for samples based on the gene expression profiles by iterative employment of Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real gene expression data sets demonstrate that iPcc can greatly highlight the latent patterns underlying noisy gene expression data and thus greatly improve the robustness and accuracy of the algorithms currently available for disease diagnosis and classification based on gene expression profiles. PMID:23761440

A correction in the CDM methodological tool for estimating methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites.

PubMed

Santos, M M O; van Elk, A G P; Romanel, C

2015-12-01

Solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) - especially landfills - are a significant source of methane, a greenhouse gas. Although having the potential to be captured and used as a fuel, most of the methane formed in SWDS is emitted to the atmosphere, mainly in developing countries. Methane emissions have to be estimated in national inventories. To help this task the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published three sets of guidelines. In addition, the Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to assist the developed countries to offset their own greenhouse gas emissions by assisting other countries to achieve sustainable development while reducing emissions. Based on methodologies provided by the IPCC regarding SWDS, the CDM Executive Board has issued a tool to be used by project developers for estimating baseline methane emissions in their project activities - on burning biogas from landfills or on preventing biomass to be landfilled and so avoiding methane emissions. Some inconsistencies in the first two IPCC guidelines have already been pointed out in an Annex of IPCC latest edition, although with hidden details. The CDM tool uses a model for methane estimation that takes on board parameters, factors and assumptions provided in the latest IPCC guidelines, while using in its core equation the one of the second IPCC edition with its shortcoming as well as allowing a misunderstanding of the time variable. Consequences of wrong ex-ante estimation of baseline emissions regarding CDM project activities can be of economical or environmental type. Example of the first type is the overestimation of 18% in an actual project on biogas from landfill in Brazil that harms its developers; of the second type, the overestimation of 35% in a project preventing municipal solid waste from being landfilled in China, which harms the environment, not for the project per se but for the undue generated carbon credits. In a simulated landfill - the same amount of waste for 20 years -, the error would be an overestimation of 25% if the CDM project activity starts from the very first year or an underestimation of 15% if it starts just after the landfill closure. Therefore, a correction in the tool to calculate emissions from landfills as adopted by the CDM Executive Board is needed. Moreover, in countries not using the latest IPCC guidelines, which provides clear formulas to prevent misunderstandings, inventory compilers can also benefit from this paper by having more accurate results in national GHG inventories related to solid waste disposal, especially when increasing amounts of waste are landfilled, which is the case of the developing countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-annual changes of Biomass Burning and Desert Dust and their impact over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DONG, X.; Fu, J. S.; Huang, K.

2014-12-01

Impact of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols on air quality has been well documented in the last few decades, but the knowledge about their interactions with anthropogenic emission and their impacts on regional climate is very limited (IPCC, 2007). While East Asia is greatly affected by dust storms in spring from Taklamakan and Gobi deserts (Huang et al., 2010; Li et al., 2012), it also suffers from significant biomass burning emission from Southeast Asia during the same season. Observations from both surface monitoring and satellite data indicated that mineral dust and biomass burning aerosols may approach to coastal area of East Asia simultaneously, thus have a very unique impact on the local atmospheric environment and regional climate. In this study, we first investigated the inter-annual variations of biomass burning and dust aerosols emission for 5 consecutive years from 2006-2010 to estimate the upper and lower limits and correlation with meteorology conditions, and then evaluate their impacts with a chemical transport system. Our preliminary results indicated that biomass burning has a strong correlation with precipitation over Southeast Asia, which could drive the emission varying from 542 Tg in 2008 to 945 Tg in 2010, according to FLAMBE emission inventory (Reid et al., 2009). Mineral dust also demonstrated a strong dependence on wind filed. These inter-annual/annual variations will also lead to different findings and impacts on air quality in East Asia. Reference: Huang, K., et al. (2010), Mixing of Asian dust with pollution aerosol and the transformation of aerosol components during the dust storm over China in spring 2007, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115. IPCC (2007), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, New York. Li, J., et al. (2012), Mixing of Asian mineral dust with anthropogenic pollutants over East Asia: a model case study of a super-duststorm in March 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 7591-7607.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Model for estimating enteric methane emissions from United States dairy and feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Kebreab, E; Johnson, K A; Archibeque, S L; Pape, D; Wirth, T

2008-10-01

Methane production from enteric fermentation in cattle is one of the major sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission in the United States and worldwide. National estimates of methane emissions rely on mathematical models such as the one recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). Models used for prediction of methane emissions from cattle range from empirical to mechanistic with varying input requirements. Two empirical and 2 mechanistic models (COWPOLL and MOLLY) were evaluated for their prediction ability using individual cattle measurements. Model selection was based on mean square prediction error (MSPE), concordance correlation coefficient, and residuals vs. predicted values analyses. In dairy cattle, COWPOLL had the lowest root MSPE and greatest accuracy and precision of predicting methane emissions (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.75). The model simulated differences in diet more accurately than the other models, and the residuals vs. predicted value analysis showed no mean bias (P = 0.71). In feedlot cattle, MOLLY had the lowest root MSPE with almost all errors from random sources (correlation coefficient estimate = 0.69). The IPCC model also had good agreement with observed values, and no significant mean (P = 0.74) or linear bias (P = 0.11) was detected when residuals were plotted against predicted values. A fixed methane conversion factor (Ym) might be an easier alternative to diet-dependent variable Ym. Based on the results, the 2 mechanistic models were used to simulate methane emissions from representative US diets and were compared with the IPCC model. The average Ym in dairy cows was 5.63% of GE (range 3.78 to 7.43%) compared with 6.5% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. In feedlot cattle, the average Ym was 3.88% (range 3.36 to 4.56%) compared with 3% +/- 1% recommended by IPCC. Based on our simulations, using IPCC values can result in an overestimate of about 12.5% and underestimate of emissions by about 9.8% for dairy and feedlot cattle, respectively. In addition to providing improved estimates of emissions based on diets, mechanistic models can be used to assess mitigation options such as changing source of carbohydrate or addition of fat to decrease methane, which is not possible with empirical models. We recommend national inventories use diet-specific Ym values predicted by mechanistic models to estimate methane emissions from cattle.

Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the intergovernmental panel on climate change

Treesearch

Ronald Raunikar; Joseph Buongiorno; James A. Turner; Shushuai Zhu

2010-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and...

Mediterranean savanna system: understanding and modeling of olive orchard.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brilli, Lorenzo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco

2013-04-01

Nowadays most of the studies on C and N exchange were focused on forest ecosystems and crop systems, while only few studies have been focused on so called "savanna systems". They are long-term agro-ecosystems (fruit trees, grapevines and olive trees, etc.) usually characterized by two different layers (ground vegetation and trees). Generally, there is a lack of knowledge about these systems due to their intrinsic structural complexity (different eco-physiological characteristics so as agricultural practices). However, given their long-term carbon storage capacity, these systems can play a fundamental role in terms of global C cycle. Among all of them, the role that olive trees can play in C sequestration should not be neglected, especially in Mediterranean areas where they typify the rural landscape and are widely cultivated (Loumou and Giourga, 2003). It is therefore fundamental modelling the C-fluxes exchanges coming from these systems through a tool able to well reproduce these dynamics in one of the most exposed areas to the risk of climate change (IPCC, 2007). In this work, 2 years of Net CO2 Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) measures from eddy covariance were used to test the biogeochemistry model DayCent. The study was conducted in a rain-fed olive orchard situated in Follonica, South Tuscany, Italy (42 ° 55'N, 10 ° 45'E), in an agricultural area near the coast. The instrumentation for flux measurement was placed 1.9 m above the canopy top (6.5 m from the ground) so that the footprint area, expressed as the area containing 90% of the observed flux, was almost entirely contained within the olive orchard limits (Brilli et al., in press). Ancillary slow sensors have included soil temperature profiles, global radiation, air temperature and humidity, rain gauge. Fluxes of sensible heat, latent heat, momentum and CO2 as well as ancillary data were derived at half-hourly time resolution. Specific soil (texture, current and historical land use and vegetation cover) and vegetation data (biomass partition, C and N content in olive trees branches and roots) were additionally collected to improve the model calibration. Preliminary results showed that olive grove can be an important C sink while agronomic practices and hottest conditions can induce large C losses. DayCent simulations have confirmed that the model properly tuned for the two components can be used to simulate total olive grove NEE. Additional studies should be conducted to assess the possibility of further improving model performances. References Brilli, L., Chiesi, M., Maselli, F., Moriondo, M., Gioli, B., Toscano, P., Zaldei, A., Bindi, M., 2013. Simulation of olive grove Gross Primary Production by the combination of ground and multisensory satellite data. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, in press. IPCC, 2007, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. Loumou, A., Giourga, C., 2003. Olive groves: The life and identity of the Mediterranean. Agricultural and Human Values 20, 87-95.

Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment: An overview of the IPCC SREX report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Nicholls, N.; Easterling, D.; Goodess, C. M.; Kanae, S.; Kossin, J.; Luo, Y.; Marengo, J.; McInnes, K.; Rahimi, M.; Reichstein, M.; Sorteberg, A.; Vera, C.; Zhang, X.

2012-04-01

In April 2009, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) decided to prepare a new special report with involvement of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) on the topic "Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation" (SREX, http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/). This special report reviews the scientific literature on past and projected changes in weather and climate extremes, and the relevance of such changes to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The SREX Summary for Policymakers was approved at an IPCC Plenary session on November 14-18, 2011, and the full report is planned for release in February 2012. This presentation will provide an overview on the structure and contents of the SREX, focusing on Chapter 3: "Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment" [1]. It will in particular present the main findings of the chapter, including differences between the SREX's conclusions and those of the IPCC Fourth Assessment of 2007, and the implications of this new assessment for disaster risk reduction. Finally, aspects relevant to impacts on the biogeochemical cycles will also be addressed. [1] Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C.M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Estimating national landfill methane emissions: an application of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Waste Model in Panama.

PubMed

Weitz, Melissa; Coburn, Jeffrey B; Salinas, Edgar

2008-05-01

This paper estimates national methane emissions from solid waste disposal sites in Panama over the time period 1990-2020 using both the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model spreadsheet and the default emissions estimate approach presented in the 1996 IPCC Good Practice Guidelines. The IPCC Waste Model has the ability to calculate emissions from a variety of solid waste disposal site types, taking into account country- or region-specific waste composition and climate information, and can be used with a limited amount of data. Countries with detailed data can also run the model with country-specific values. The paper discusses methane emissions from solid waste disposal; explains the differences between the two methodologies in terms of data needs, assumptions, and results; describes solid waste disposal circumstances in Panama; and presents the results of this analysis. It also demonstrates the Waste Model's ability to incorporate landfill gas recovery data and to make projections. The former default method methane emissions estimates are 25 Gg in 1994, and range from 23.1 Gg in 1990 to a projected 37.5 Gg in 2020. The Waste Model estimates are 26.7 Gg in 1994, ranging from 24.6 Gg in 1990 to 41.6 Gg in 2020. Emissions estimates for Panama produced by the new model were, on average, 8% higher than estimates produced by the former default methodology. The increased estimate can be attributed to the inclusion of all solid waste disposal in Panama (as opposed to only disposal in managed landfills), but the increase was offset somewhat by the different default factors and regional waste values between the 1996 and 2006 IPCC guidelines, and the use of the first-order decay model with a time delay for waste degradation in the IPCC Waste Model.

Effects of crop management, soil type, and climate on N2O emissions from Austrian Soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Sigmund, Elisabeth; Kasper, Martina; Kitzler, Barbara; Haas, Edwin; Wandl, Michael; Strauss, Peter; Poetzelsberger, Elisabeth; Dersch, Georg; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Amon, Barbara

2015-04-01

Within the project FarmClim ("Farming for a better climate") we assessed recent N2O emissions from two selected regions in Austria. Our aim was to deepen the understanding of Austrian N2O fluxes regarding region specific properties. Currently, N2O emissions are estimated with the IPCC default emission factor which only considers the amount of N-input as an influencing factor for N2O emissions. We evaluated the IPCC default emission factor for its validity under spatially distinct environmental conditions. For this two regions for modeling with LandscapeDNDC have been identified in this project. The benefit of using LandscapeDNDC is the detailed illustration of microbial processes in the soil. Required input data to run the model included daily climate data, vegetation properties, soil characteristics and land management. The analysis of present agricultural practices was basis for assessing the hot spots and hot moments of nitrogen emissions on a regional scale. During our work with LandscapeDNDC we were able to adapt specific model algorithms to Austrian agricultural conditions. The model revealed a strong dependency of N2O emissions on soil type. We could estimate how strongly soil texture affects N2O emissions. Based on detailed soil maps with high spatial resolution we calculated region specific contribution to N2O emissions. Accordingly we differentiated regions with deviating gas fluxes compared to the predictions by the IPCC inventory methodology. Taking region specific management practices into account (tillage, irrigation, residuals) calculation of crop rotation (fallow, catch crop, winter wheat, barley, winter barley, sugar beet, corn, potato, onion and rapeseed) resulted in N2O emissions differing by a factor of 30 depending on preceding crop and climate. A maximum of 2% of N fertilizer input was emitted as N2O. Residual N in the soil was a major factor stimulating N2O emissions. Interannual variability was affected by varying N-deposition even in case of constant management practices. High temporal resolution of model outputs enabled us to identify hot moments of N-turnover and total N2O emissions according to extreme weather events. We analysed how strongly these event based emissions, which are not accounted for by classical inventories, affect emission factors. The evaluation of the IPCC default emission factor for its validity under spatially distinct environmental conditions revealed which environmental conditions are responsible for major deviations of actual emissions from the theoretical values. Scrutinizing these conditions can help to improve climate reporting and greenhouse gas mitigation measures.

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. Themore » ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.« less

CSIR Contribution to Defining Adaptive Capacity in the Context of Environmental Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-30

of Environmental Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W911NF-14-1-0113 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6 . AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK...Change page 4 The metrics were used to identify areas of vulnerability within the Mississippi River basin and Nile River basin region. The IPCC ...The opportunities for improving the communities’ adaptive capacity (in accordance with the IPCC framework) relate to the reduction of the hazard

Re-reading the IPCC Report: Aerosols, Droughts and ENSO Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potts, K. A.

2008-12-01

The Technical Summary of Working Group One in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that "changes in aerosols may have affected precipitation and other aspects of the hydrologic cycle more strongly than other anthropogenic forcing agents" and that "Simulations also suggest that absorbing aerosols, particularly black carbon, can reduce the solar radiation reaching the surface and can warm the atmosphere at regional scales, affecting the vertical temperature profile and the large-scale atmospheric circulation". Taking these two statements at face value I first identify eight seasonal, anthropogenic, regional scale, aerosol plumes which now occur each year and then report the correlation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) of some of these plumes with climate anomalies in the higher latitudes and with ENSO events. The eight identified aerosol plumes vary significantly in extent and AOD inter annually. They have also increased in geographic extent and AOD over recent decades as the population in the tropics, the origin of the majority of these plumes, has increased dramatically requiring increased levels of agriculture and commercial activity. I show that: the AOD of the South East Asian Plume, occurring from late July to November, correlates with four characteristics of drought in south eastern Australia; the aerosol index of the Middle East Plume correlates negatively with rainfall in Darfur; and the volume of tephra ejected by volcanoes in south east Asia correlates: negatively with rainfall and water inflows into the Murray River in south eastern Australia; and positively with ENSO events over the period 1890/91 to 2006. I conclude that aerosol plumes over south eastern Asia are the cause of drought in south eastern Australia and ENSO events and confirm the statements made in the IPCC Report with respect to these aerosol plumes. I propose a new component of surface aerosol radiative forcing, Regional Dimming, which interferes with the seasonal movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone and forces the regional Hadley Cells into anomalous seasonal positions producing blocking high pressure systems in the higher latitudes and causing climate change by altering the wind systems. The South East Asian Plume also creates ENSO events by altering or inhibiting the circulation of the Walker Cell which changes the MSL pressure relationship between Darwin and Tahiti creating Southern Oscillation Index events and reducing the wind speed in the central Pacific Ocean causing an increase in the sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area. Finally I suggest that further research on the effects of these eight regional scale aerosol plumes on the hydrologic cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation using a global circulation model is crucial to the understanding and attribution of climate change and is urgently required.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Wein, Anne M.; Liu, Shuguang; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengleter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

2012-01-01

Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and landmanagement activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

Why We Don't Collaborate in Response to Climate Change: The Knowledge Deficit, Co-Production, and the Future of the IPCC.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B. R.; Overpeck, J. T.

2014-12-01

Scientific knowledge production is based on recognizing and filling knowledge deficits or 'gaps' in understanding, but for climate adaptation and mitigation, the applicability of this approach is questionable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mandate is an example of this type of 'gap filling,' in which the elimination of uncertainties is presumed to enable rational decision making for individuals and rational governance for societies. Presumed knowledge deficits, though, are unsuited to controversial problems with social, cultural, and economic dimensions; likewise, communication to educate is an ineffective means of inciting behavioural change. An alternative is needed, particularly given the economic, social, and political scale that action on climate change requires. We review the 'deficit-education framing' and show how it maintains a wedge between those affected and those whose knowledge is required. We then review co-production to show how natural and social scientists, as well as the IPCC, might more effectively proceed.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

An Assessment of IPCC 20th Century Climate Simulations Using the 15-year Sea Level Record from Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leuliette, E.; Nerem, S.; Jakub, T.

2006-07-01

Recen tly, multiple ensemble climate simulations h ave been produced for th e forthco ming Fourth A ssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). N early two dozen coupled ocean- atmo sphere models have contr ibuted output for a variety of climate scen arios. One scenar io, the climate of the 20th century exper imen t (20C3 M), produces model output that can be comp ared to th e long record of sea level provided by altimetry . Generally , the output from the 20C3M runs is used to initialize simulations of future climate scenar ios. Hence, v alidation of the 20 C3 M experiment resu lts is crucial to the goals of th e IPCC. We present compar isons of global mean sea level (G MSL) , global mean steric sea level change, and regional patterns of sea lev el chang e from these models to r esults from altimetry, tide gauge measurements, and reconstructions.

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Greenhouse gases inventory and carbon balance of two dairy systems obtained from two methane-estimation methods.

PubMed

Cunha, C S; Lopes, N L; Veloso, C M; Jacovine, L A G; Tomich, T R; Pereira, L G R; Marcondes, M I

2016-11-15

The adoption of carbon inventories for dairy farms in tropical countries based on models developed from animals and diets of temperate climates is questionable. Thus, the objectives of this study were to estimate enteric methane (CH4) emissions through the SF6 tracer gas technique and through equations proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 and to calculate the inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from two dairy systems. In addition, the carbon balance of these properties was estimated using enteric CH4 emissions obtained using both methodologies. In trial 1, the CH4 emissions were estimated from seven Holstein dairy cattle categories based on the SF6 tracer gas technique and on IPCC equations. The categories used in the study were prepubertal heifers (n=6); pubertal heifers (n=4); pregnant heifers (n=5); high-producing (n=6); medium-producing (n=5); low-producing (n=4) and dry cows (n=5). Enteric methane emission was higher for the category comprising prepubertal heifers when estimated by the equations proposed by the IPCC Tier 2. However, higher CH4 emissions were estimated by the SF6 technique in the categories including medium- and high-producing cows and dry cows. Pubertal heifers, pregnant heifers, and low-producing cows had equal CH4 emissions as estimated by both methods. In trial 2, two dairy farms were monitored for one year to identify all activities that contributed in any way to GHG emissions. The total emission from Farm 1 was 3.21t CO2e/animal/yr, of which 1.63t corresponded to enteric CH4. Farm 2 emitted 3.18t CO2e/animal/yr, with 1.70t of enteric CH4. IPCC estimations can underestimate CH4 emissions from some categories while overestimate others. However, considering the whole property, these discrepancies are offset and we would submit that the equations suggested by the IPCC properly estimate the total CH4 emission and carbon balance of the properties. Thus, the IPCC equations should be utilized with caution, and the herd composition should be analysed at the property level. When the carbon stock in pasture and other crops was considered, the carbon balance suggested that both farms are sustainable for GHG, by both methods. On the other hand, carbon balance without carbon stock, by both methods, suggests that farms emit more carbon than the system is capable of stock. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of streamflow to projected climate change scenarios in an eastern Himalayan catchment of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senzeba, K. T.; Rajkumari, S.; Bhadra, A.; Bandyopadhyay, A.

2016-04-01

Snowmelt run-off model (SRM) based on degree-day approach has been employed to evaluate the change in snow-cover depletion and corresponding streamflow under different projected climatic scenarios for an eastern Himalayan catchment in India. Nuranang catchment located at Tawang district of Arunachal Pradesh with an area of 52 km2 is selected for the present study with an elevation range of 3143-4946 m above mean sea level. Satellite images from October to June of the selected hydrological year 2006-2007 were procured from National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad. Snow cover mapping is done using NDSI method. Based on long term meteorological data, temperature and precipitation data of selected hydrological year are normalized to represent present climatic condition. The projected temperature and precipitation data are downloaded from NCAR's GIS data portal for different emission scenarios (SRES), viz., A1B, A2, B1; and IPCC commitment (non-SRES) scenario for different future years (2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050). Projected temperature and precipitation data are obtained at desired location by spatially interpolating the gridded data and then by statistical downscaling using linear regression. Snow depletion curves for all projected scenarios are generated for the study area and compared with conventional depletion curve for present climatic condition. Changes in cumulative snowmelt depth for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment, whereas A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment. Percentage increase in streamflow for different future years follows almost the same trend as change in precipitation from present climate under all projected climatic scenarios. Hence, it was concluded that for small catchments having seasonal snow cover, the total streamflow under projected climatic scenarios in future years will be primarily governed by the change in precipitation and not by change in snowmelt depth. Advancing of depletion curves for different future years are highest under A1B and lowest under IPCC commitment. A2 and B1 values are in-between A1B and IPCC commitment.

Integration and Exposure of Large Scale Computational Resources Across the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffy, D.; Maxwell, T. P.; Doutriaux, C.; Williams, D. N.; Chaudhary, A.; Ames, S.

2015-12-01

As the size of remote sensing observations and model output data grows, the volume of the data has become overwhelming, even to many scientific experts. As societies are forced to better understand, mitigate, and adapt to climate changes, the combination of Earth observation data and global climate model projects is crucial to not only scientists but to policy makers, downstream applications, and even the public. Scientific progress on understanding climate is critically dependent on the availability of a reliable infrastructure that promotes data access, management, and provenance. The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) has created such an environment for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ESGF provides a federated global cyber infrastructure for data access and management of model outputs generated for the IPCC Assessment Reports (AR). The current generation of the ESGF federated grid allows consumers of the data to find and download data with limited capabilities for server-side processing. Since the amount of data for future AR is expected to grow dramatically, ESGF is working on integrating server-side analytics throughout the federation. The ESGF Compute Working Team (CWT) has created a Web Processing Service (WPS) Application Programming Interface (API) to enable access scalable computational resources. The API is the exposure point to high performance computing resources across the federation. Specifically, the API allows users to execute simple operations, such as maximum, minimum, average, and anomalies, on ESGF data without having to download the data. These operations are executed at the ESGF data node site with access to large amounts of parallel computing capabilities. This presentation will highlight the WPS API, its capabilities, provide implementation details, and discuss future developments.

Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

2011-12-01

Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

Estimation of CO2 emissions from waste incinerators: Comparison of three methods.

PubMed

Lee, Hyeyoung; Yi, Seung-Muk; Holsen, Thomas M; Seo, Yong-Seok; Choi, Eunhwa

2018-03-01

Climate-relevant CO 2 emissions from waste incineration were compared using three methods: making use of CO 2 concentration data, converting O 2 concentration and waste characteristic data, and using a mass balance method following Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines. For the first two methods, CO 2 and O 2 concentrations were measured continuously from 24 to 86 days. The O 2 conversion method in comparison to the direct CO 2 measurement method had a 4.8% mean difference in daily CO 2 emissions for four incinerators where analyzed waste composition data were available. However, the IPCC method had a higher difference of 13% relative to the direct CO 2 measurement method. For three incinerators using designed values for waste composition, the O 2 conversion and IPCC methods in comparison to the direct CO 2 measurement method had mean differences of 7.5% and 89%, respectively. Therefore, the use of O 2 concentration data measured for monitoring air pollutant emissions is an effective method for estimating CO 2 emissions resulting from waste incineration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.

2008-12-01

The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the existing federal climate products and services and the needed federal climate products and services which will address these weather thresholds. Just as important, as we work to meet the needs, a robust education and outreach program is essential to take full advantage of new products, services and capabilities. To ascertain what climate products and services currently exist to address weather thresholds relative to surface transportation, what climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and how to bridge the gap between what is available and what is needed, the OFCM surveyed the federal meteorological community. Consistent with the extreme events highlighted in the IPCC report, the OFCM survey categorized the weather thresholds associated with surface transportation into the following extreme event areas: (a) excessive heat, (b) winter precipitation, (c) summer precipitation, (d) high winds, and (e) flooding and coastal inundation. The survey results, the gap analysis, as well as OFCM's planned, follow-on activities with additional categories (i.e., in addition to surface transportation) and weather thresholds will be shared with meeting participants. 1 The OFCM is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the mission to ensure the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather and climate requirements, products, services, and supporting research among the federal agencies. 2 http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-7/final-report/sap4-7-final-ch1.pdf 3 http://www.gcrio.org/ipcc/ar4/wg1/faq/ar4wg1faq-3-3.pdf

Review and analysis of global agricultural N₂O emissions relevant to the UK.

PubMed

Buckingham, S; Anthony, S; Bellamy, P H; Cardenas, L M; Higgins, S; McGeough, K; Topp, C F E

2014-07-15

As part of a UK government funded research project to update the UK N2O inventory methodology, a systematic review of published nitrous oxide (N2O) emission factors was carried out of non-UK research, for future comparison and synthesis with the UK measurement based evidence base. The aim of the study is to assess how the UK IPCC default emission factor for N2O emissions derived from synthetic or organic fertiliser inputs (EF1) compares to international values reported in published literature. The availability of data for comparing and/or refining the UK IPCC default value and the possibility of analysing sufficient auxiliary data to propose a Tier 2 EF1 reporting strategy is evaluated. The review demonstrated a lack of consistency in reporting error bounds for fertiliser-derived EFs and N2O flux data with 8% and 44% of publications reporting EF and N2O flux error bounds respectively. There was also poor description of environmental (climate and soil) and experimental design auxiliary data. This is likely to be due to differences in study objectives, however potential improvements to soil parameter reporting are proposed. The review demonstrates that emission factors for agricultural-derived N2O emissions ranged -0.34% to 37% showing high variation compared to the UK Tier 1 IPCC EF1 default values of 1.25% (IPCC 1996) and 1% (IPPC 2006). However, the majority (83%) of EFs reported for UK-relevant soils fell within the UK IPCC EF1 uncertainty range of 0.03% to 3%. Residual maximum likelihood (REML) analysis of the data collated in the review showed that the type and rate of fertiliser N applied and soil type were significant factors influencing EFs reported. Country of emission, the length of the measurement period, the number of splits, the crop type, pH and SOC did not have a significant impact on N2O emissions. A subset of publications where sufficient data was reported for meta-analysis to be conducted was identified. Meta-analysis of effect sizes of 41 treatments demonstrated that the application of fertiliser has a significant effect on N2O emissions in comparison to control plots and that emission factors were significantly different to zero. However no significant relationships between the quantity of fertiliser applied and the effect size of the amount of N2O emitted from fertilised plots compared to control plots were found. Annual addition of fertiliser of 35 to 557 kg N/ha gave a mean increase in emissions of 2.02 ± 0.28 g N2O/ha/day compared to control treatments (p<0.01). Emission factors were significantly different from zero, with a mean emission factor estimated directly from the meta analysis of 0.17 ± 0.02%. This is lower than the IPCC 2006 Tier 1 EF1 value of 1% but falling within the uncertainty bound for the IPCC 2006 Tier 1 EF1 (0.03% to 3%). As only a small number of papers were viable for meta analysis to be conducted due to lack of reporting of the key controlling factors, the estimates of EF in this paper cannot include the true variability under conditions similar to the UK. Review-derived EFs of 0.34% to 37% and mean EF from meta-analysis of 0.17 ± 0.02% highlight variability in reporting EFs depending on the method applied and sample size. A protocol of systematic reporting of N2O emissions and key auxiliary parameters in publications across disciplines is proposed. If adopted this would strengthen the community to inform IPCC Tier 2 reporting development and reduce the uncertainty surrounding reported UK N2O emissions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over urban regions. We present comparisons of observed (EC) tower flux observations from the Florence (Ximeniano) site for 1-9 April, 2008 with results from two sets of high-resolution simulations: the first using dynamically-downscaled input/boundary conditions (Model-0) and the second using fully nested WRF-ACASA (Model-1). In each simulation the model physics are the same; only the WRF domain configuration differs. Preliminary results (Figure 1) indicate a degree of parity (and a slight statistical improvement), in the performances of Model-1 vs. that of Model-0 with respect to observed. Figure 1 (below) shows air temperature values from observed and both model estimates. Additional results indicate that care must be taken to configure the WRF domain, as performance appears to be sensitive to model configuration.

Fuel moisture content estimation: a land-surface modelling approach applied to African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Spessa, A.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Despite the importance of fire to the global climate system, in terms of emissions from biomass burning, ecosystem structure and function, and changes to surface albedo, current land-surface models do not adequately estimate key variables affecting fire ignition and propagation. Fuel moisture content (FMC) is considered one of the most important of these variables (Chuvieco et al., 2004). Biophysical models, with appropriate plant functional type parameterisations, are the most viable option to adequately predict FMC over continental scales at high temporal resolution. However, the complexity of plant-water interactions, and the variability associated with short-term climate changes, means it is one of the most difficult fire variables to quantify and predict. Our work attempts to resolve this issue using a combination of satellite data and biophysical modelling applied to Africa. The approach we take is to represent live FMC as a surface dryness index; expressed as the ratio between the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land-surface temperature (LST). It has been argued in previous studies (Sandholt et al., 2002; Snyder et al., 2006), that this ratio displays a statistically stronger correlation to FMC than either of the variables, considered separately. In this study, simulated FMC is constrained through the assimilation of remotely sensed LST and NDVI data into the land-surface model JULES (Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator). Previous modelling studies of fire activity in Africa savannas, such as Lehsten et al. (2008), have reported significant levels of uncertainty associated with the simulations. This uncertainty is important because African savannas are among some of the most frequently burnt ecosystems and are a major source of greenhouse trace gases and aerosol emissions (Scholes et al., 1996). Furthermore, regional climate model studies indicate that many parts of the African savannas will experience drier and warmer conditions in future (IPCC 2007). The simulation of realistic fire disturbance regimes with biophysical and biogeochemical models is a prerequisite for reducing the uncertainty of the African carbon cycle, and the feedbacks associated with this cycle and the global climate system. Using multi-temporal modelling analysis techniques, we present preliminary results that provide a more robust estimation of live FMC. References Chuvieco, E., Aguado, I. and Dimitrakopoulos, A. P. (2004) Conversion of fuel moisture content values to ignition potential for integrated fire danger assessment. Canadian Journal of Forest Research-Revue Canadienne De Recherche Forestiere 34(11): 2284-2293. IPCC (2007) 'Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)].' IPCC, (Geneva, Switzerland). Lehsten, V., Tansey, K. J., Balzter, H, Thonicke, K., Spessa, A., Weber, U., Smith, B., and Arneth, A. (2008). Estimating carbon emissions from African wildfires. Accepted Biogeosciences. Sandholt, I., Rasmussen, K. & Andersen, J. (2002) A simple interpretation of the surface temperature/vegetation index space for assessment of surface moisture status. Remote Sensing of Environment 79(2-3): 213-224. Scholes, R. J., Ward, D. E. and Justice, C. O. (1996) Emissions of trace gases and aerosol particles due to vegetation burning in southern hemisphere Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 101(D19): 23677-23682. Snyder, R. L., Spano, D., Duce, P., Baldocchi, D., Xu, L. K. & Kyaw, T. P. U. (2006) A fuel dryness index for grassland fire-danger assessment. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 139(1-2): 1-11.

Increasing severity of damage caused by floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960-2014), climate change or vulnerability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Alfredo; Gil, Salvador; Lopez, Francisco; Barriendos, Mariano

2016-04-01

In recent decades, there has been an increase in physical and economic losses (WMO, CRED and UCL, 2014) that raises serious concerns in society. Climate change projections may explain the rise in flood losses; however, these shouldn't be considered yet (Bouwer, 2011). According to IPCC (2014), there is low confidence in anthropogenic climate change affecting the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. In other words, this increase in flood events is not completely related to the higher frequency of heavy rainfall. To illustrate the aforementioned, a spatial example can be seen in the study area. In the Spanish Mediterranean coast, we see an increase in economic losses within the last 50 years due to flood events (Gil et al., 2014). It seems that the socio-economic growth and the rise of housing construction (Gaja, 2008) have led to an increase in vulnerability and exposure which are mainly responsible for those losses and the increase in severity of flood events (Pérez et al., 2015). Furthermore, this situation will probably become more precarious if some climate forecasts are met [IPCC, 2014; AEMET, 2015], and if the economic model fails to adopt efficient adaptive measures. Therefore, it is interesting to focus attention on social factors either within the present or future scenario in order to minimise the potential consequences and improve the adaptation. The main objective of this work focuses on the study of the evolution of the severity of the floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the period (1960-2015). To do that, a statistical analysis of the data base [Gil et al., 2014; extended to the entire Spanish Mediterranean coast (MEDIFLOOD)] and a multiscale mapping (local, provincial and regional level) of the frequency of these events will take place in order to make comparisons and show spatiotemporal patterns according to the severity events evolution. Preliminary results show some interesting statistically significant relationships between severity and the increase of population and buildings mentioned above. Bibliography: AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) (2015). Proyecciones Climáticas para el siglo XXI en España. www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat Bouwer L.M. (2011). Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 92. Gaja F. (2008). El 'tsunami urbanizador' en el litoral mediterráneo. El ciclo de hiperproducción inmobiliaria 1996-2006. Scripta Nova, 12. Gil S., Pérez A. & Barriendos M. (2014). Increasing vulnerability to flooding in the southern spanish mediterranean coast (1960-2013). In: Hydrological extreme events in historic and prehistoric times. Bonn (Germany). IPCC. (2014) Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer, eds. Geneva, Switzerland. Pérez-Morales, A., Gil-Guirado, S., & Olcina-Cantos, J. (2015). Housing bubbles and the increase of flood exposure. Failures in flood risk management on the Spanish south-eastern coast (1975-2013). Journal of Flood Risk Management. WMO, CRED and UCL (2014). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes 1970-2012. Geneva, Switzerland.

Estimating the potential for methane clathrate instability in the 1%-CO2 IPCC AR-4 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarque, Jean-François

2008-10-01

The recent work of Reagan and Moridis (2007) has shown that even a limited warming of 1 K over 100 years can lead to clathrate destabilization, leading to a significant flux of methane into the ocean water, at least for shallow deposits. Here we study the potential for methane clathrate destabilization by identifying the 100-year temperature increase in the available IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR-4 1%-CO2 increase per year (up to doubling over pre-industrial conditions, which occurs after 70 years) simulations. Depending on assumptions made on the possible locations (in this case, only depth) of methane clathrates and on temperature dependence, our calculation leads to an estimated model-mean release of methane at the bottom of the ocean of approximately 560-2140 Tg(CH4)/year; as no actual geographical distribution of methane clathrates is considered here, these flux estimates must be viewed as upper bound estimates. Using an observed 1% ratio to estimate the amount of methane reaching the atmosphere, our analysis leads to a relatively small methane flux of approximately 5-21 Tg(CH4)/year, with an estimated inter-model standard deviation of approximately 30%. The role of sea-level rise by 2100 will be to further stabilize methane clathrates, albeit to a small amount as the sea-level rise is expected to be less than a few meters.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

Cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions: numerical modeling using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) at different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergamasco, A.; Budgell, W. P.; Carniel, S.; Sclavo, M.

2005-03-01

Conveyor belt circulation controls global climate through heat and water fluxes with atmosphere and from tropical to polar regions and vice versa. This circulation, commonly referred to as thermohaline circulation (THC), seems to have millennium time scale and nowadays--a non-glacial period--appears to be as rather stable. However, concern is raised by the buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, Third assessment report: Climate Change 2001. A contribution of working group I, II and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, UK) 2001, http://www.ipcc.ch) as these may affect the THC conveyor paths. Since it is widely recognized that dense-water formation sites act as primary sources in strengthening quasi-stable THC paths (Stommel H., Tellus131961224), in order to simulate properly the consequences of such scenarios a better understanding of these oceanic processes is needed. To successfully model these processes, air-sea-ice-integrated modelling approaches are often required. Here we focus on two polar regions using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). In the first region investigated, the North Atlantic-Arctic, where open-ocean deep convection and open-sea ice formation and dispersion under the intense air-sea interactions are the major engines, we use a new version of the coupled hydrodynamic-ice ROMS model. The second area belongs to the Antarctica region inside the Southern Ocean, where brine rejections during ice formation inside shelf seas origin dense water that, flowing along the continental slope, overflow becoming eventually abyssal waters. Results show how nowadays integrated-modelling tasks have become more and more feasible and effective; numerical simulations dealing with large computational domains or challenging different climate scenarios can be run on multi-processors platforms and on systems like LINUX clusters, made of the same hardware as PCs, and codes have been accordingly modified.This relevant numerical help coming from the computer science can now allow scientists to devote larger attention in the efforts of understanding the deep mechanisms of such complex processes.

230Th and 231Pa: Tracers for Deep Water Circulation and Particle Fluxes in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valk, O.; Rutgers van der Loeff, M.; Puigcorbe Lacueva, V.; Paffrath, R.; Gdaniec, S.

2016-02-01

230Th and 231Pa data from the central Arctic Ocean is very limited. 230Th and 231Pa are produced at a constant rate in the water column by radioactive decay of Uranium isotopes (234U and 235U respectively) (e.g. Anderson et al., 1983). They are both particle reactive and are scavenged on settling particles. As 230Th is more particle reactive than 231Pa, their distribution in the water column and activity ratio give us information about particle fluxes and circulation patterns and -intensities (Henderson et al., 1999; Scholten et al., 2001). The Arctic Ocean is an almost landlocked ocean with limited connections to the Atlantic and Pacific and a high input of river water. About 10 % of the global river run-off is delivered to the Arctic Ocean. Due to climate change the Arctic Ocean will undergo dramatic changes in sea ice cover and supply of fresh water, while increasing coastal erosion will cause an increased input of terrestrial material (Peterson et al., 2002). This will influence the biogeochemical cycling and transport of carbon, nutrients and trace elements (IPCC, 2007). We expect that the distribution of 230Th and 231Pa will reflect changes in particle fluxes and shelf-basin exchange (Roy-Barman, 2009). We will present the first results of 230Th and 231Pa, in combination with on board measured particulate 234Th, collected during the 2015 Polarstern section (GEOTRACES section GN04 2015) through the Nansen, Amundsen, and Makarov Basins. Anderson, R. F., et al. (1983). EPSL 62: 7-23. Henderson, G. M., et al. (1999). DSR I 46: 1861-1893. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. et al.]. Cambridge University Press. Peterson, B. J., et al. (2002). Science 298: 2171-2173. Roy-Barman, M. (2009). Biogeosciences 6: 3091-3107. Scholten, J. C., et al. (2001). DSR II 48: 2383-2408.

Line by Line CO2 Absorption in the Atmosphere for Input Data to Calculate Global Warming, David C. Smith, DCS Lasers & Optics LLC, Old Saybrook CT 06475

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. C.

2012-12-01

Compter modeling of global climate change require an input (asssumption) of the forcing function for CO2 absorption. All codes use a long term forcing function of ~ 4 W/M2. (IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers. In:Climate Change 2007. The Physical Sciences Basis.Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge U. Press N.Y.)..This is based on a band model of the CO2 rotational/vibrational absorption where a band of absorption averages over all the rotational levels of the vibration transition. (Ramananathan,V.,et al, J. of Geophysical Research,Vol 84 C8,p4949,Aug.1979).. The model takes into account the line width,the spacing between lines and identifies 10 CO2 bands.. This approach neglects the possibility that the peak absorption transitions in a band can "use up" all of the earths IR radiation at that wavelength and does not contribute to global warming no matter how much the CO2 is increased. The lines in the wings of a band increase their absorption as the CO2 is increased. However, the lines that are lost are the strong absorbers and those that are added are the weaker absorption lines. When a band begins to use up the IR then the net result of increasing the atmospheric CO2 is a decrease in the absorption change. This presentation calculates the absorption of each line individualy using the Behr's Law Approach. The dependence of the absorption and line width of each transition as a function of altitude is accounted for. The temperature dependence of the absorption with altitude is not and an evaluation of this error is given. For doubling CO2 from 320ppm to 640 ppm, the calculation gives a forcing function of 1.1 W/M2. The results show the importance of using individual lines to calculate the CO2 contribution to global warming, We can speculate on the imact and anticipate a computer code calculation of a factor of 4 less global warming than the published results.

Verifying the UK agricultural N2O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, E. J.; Meneguz, E.; Skiba, U. M.; Misselbrook, T. H.; Cardenas, L. M.; Arnold, T.; Manning, A.; Dragosits, U.

2016-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential 300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates, in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and an alternative approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the alternative approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E. England; Ridge Hill, W. England; Mace Head, W. Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to correspond with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of land spreading of manures and fertiliser application. The model run using the default IPCC methodology was found to correspond with the observed data more closely than the alternative approach.

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex

2015-01-01

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change: seeking balance in media reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Fowler, David

2008-06-01

Boykoff and Mansfield (2008), in a recent paper in this journal, provide a detailed analysis of the representation of climate change in the UK tabloid newspapers. They conclude that the representation of this issue in these papers 'diverged from the scientific consensus that humans contribute to climate change'. That is, portrayal of climate change in tabloid newspapers contradicts the conclusions of the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment (IPCC 2007). Is it healthy to have the scientific consensus challenged so frequently? But should we worry about systematic misrepresentation of scientific consensus? We believe the answer to both of these questions is yes. To present regular updates on climate change issues in the popular press is important because the changes in behaviour needed to achieve substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions require a broad understanding of the basic facts. However, if the majority of readers receive misleading information, it will be difficult to achieve the level of public understanding necessary to make such reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change (Schellnhuber et al 2006 and references therein). Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) identify a gulf in presentation of the scientific facts and their interpretation on the subject of 'global warming' in tabloid newspapers, when compared to the scientific consensus. What is really sobering is the huge circulation of these papers (see table 1 of Boykoff and Mansfield—many millions per day); even the most important 'landmark' research papers very rarely achieve five hundred plus citations. We find it heartening, therefore, that the area of climate change research does at least have the umbrella of the IPCC. This provides an additional channel through which current research associated with the effects of burning fossil fuels can be presented, and in our personal experience at least, we have found the non-tabloid UK newspapers to report accurately any IPCC statements. As this perspective article is being written, the UK (and worldwide) is facing almost unprecedented increases in the cost of petrol and diesel, and with the transport sector lobbying hard for tax incentives/rebates to reduce fuel costs. In the middle of this, some government ministers are suggesting that from the climate change angle, lower dependence on fossil fuels (forced on the population by such higher prices) might be a good thing. But their voices are drowned by other ministers saying that such an approach is deeply unpopular with the electorate—to what extent, therefore, is the tabloid press responsible for the lack of urgency related to potential future damage to the planet? How else are people informed about the climate change debate? Aside from TV and radio, popular science books are usually a good source of information. However a viewing of the environmental sciences department in any bookshop at present will reveal how remarkably polarized the climate change debate is becoming. Some books have very alarming titles; for instance Pearce (2007) is titled 'The Last Generation: How Nature will take her Revenge for Climate Change'. Meanwhile other books are appearing with titles suggesting that the entire issue is given far too much emphasis, is used as a means for politicians to keep society fearful (and presumably, therefore, more controllable), or present a view that the IPCC system is scientifically deeply flawed. Examples of these include Spencer (2008) titled 'Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor', Booker and North (2007) titled 'Scared to Death: From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth' and two books by Michaels—Michaels (2004) 'Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media' and Michaels (2005) 'Shattered Consensus: The True state of Global Warming'. Both polarized views could be argued as detrimental to addressing possible dangerous climate change. The first argument (i.e. 'we are doomed') gives the impression that climate change is so serious, and possibly unstoppable in the immediate future, that this could lead readers to decide there is nothing that can be achieved on an individual basis—and yet any measure to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse concentrations will require changed behaviour regarding fossil fuel usage at the individual level. On the other hand, simply to ignore the effects of increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate system could lead the planet in to a highly undesirable 'dangerous' state, and one that is potentially difficult or impossible to reverse in reasonable timescales. Fortunately there are some books on the subject of climate change that do present the science without bias, such as 'Global Warming' by Houghton (2004). One new book of particular interest is that of Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor, whose recent publication on climate change (Lawson 2008) is titled 'An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming'. Lawson (2008) contains a range of very interesting and interlinked strands regarding the climate change debate. As with many books discussing technical matters, it is always of interest to first check the citations, and here it is comprehensive, up-to-date and certainly does not initially appear to be selective (this is also true of the two books by Michaels). This therefore creates what seems like a paradox. Given that so many of the key papers cited by Lawson (2008) form the backbone of current understanding of climate change, and many researchers quote these as reasons for concern regarding global warming, how is it that this book instead, concludes (see the dust cover) '… the conventional wisdom on the subject is suspect on a number of grounds; … global warming is not the devastating threat to the planet it is widely alleged to be'? What is the overall feeling after reading some of Lawson (2008)? Well first and foremost, we believe that although the use of literature is impressive, there appears to be a deliberate search for the remaining scientific uncertainty (i.e. issues freely acknowledged by climate change scientists as requiring refinement, but used in this book as a reason to doubt the entire scientific debate about global warming). On this basis, it is tempting therefore to just ignore this contribution to the debate, but a more positive approach is to re-address these uncertainties, and in the process generate more concise scientific understanding and presentation. Top of this list would be Lawson's key argument that global warming has stalled between the year 2001 and 2007—'there has been no further global warming since the turn of the century … which has occurred at a time when global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever'. Lawson then cites, correctly, Smith et al (2007) but who in fact point out that this is almost certainly due to internal variability and we may expect more warming from year 2009 onwards. Lawson concludes that such a 'resumption of warming' may or may not occur. In our view the climate modelling community should work hard to revisit and extend the work of Smith et al (2007), possibly applying their technique to multiple climate models. In parallel there is a desperate need for better explanation by researchers that, even against a background warming trend, natural variability will mean that on a year-to-year basis, warming will not necessarily be monotonic. Some of Lawson's other arguments can be more readily rebutted. Two issues he presents are that trends in global temperature could be a function of varying sunspot activity, and that the global warming measured during the second half of the 20th Century could be a consequence of urbanization around measurement stations (the 'heat island' effect). Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Parker (2006) provide highly detailed and convincing reasons why, respectively, these two arguments cannot explain the warming trend seen in measurements during the last fifty years—these two papers require more extensive circulation. Lawson attacks the IPCC panel as changing from a 'fact-finding and analytical exercise' in to 'something more like a politically correct alarmist pressure group'. This is particularly unfortunate and is not consistent with the facts. For example Stott et al (2000), using statistical 'detection and attribution' analyses, utilized the spatial patterns observable in the temperature record to tease apart natural oscillations from those caused by human adjustments to atmospheric composition. This underpinned in part the statement in the 3rd IPCC Assessment (IPCC 2001) that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. It should be noted that all such analyses require disproving of the null hypthoesis (i.e. humans have no influence), and to a very high level of statistical confidence. In other words, the IPCC report depends heavily on research scientists whose starting point is actually that higher levels of greenhouse gas concentrations (most notably CO2) have had no effect on surface temperatures, unless there is significant evidence to the contrary. At some points, Lawson cannot be taken seriously. He points out (correctly) that CO2 is one of the greenhouse gases without which life would be unable to survive. However, this is then used to state that 'to describe the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as pollution is as absurd as it would be to describe the clouds as pollution'. In fact most pollutants of the atmosphere are emitted from anthropogenic activity and through natural processes. The gases become pollutants by exceeding thresholds above which damage occurs—these basic principles are widely accepted in the scientific community. Hence there is still the requirement to explain in very general terms the role of near-stable (at century timescales) pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations in sustaining life (along with the other greenhouse gas concentrations), but how much higher values of CO2 could cause dangerous perturbation to the climate system. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) provide a valuable insight in to how climate change is presented in the media. As the general consensus among climate research scientists is that to avoid 'dangerous' climate change there is a requirement to make very large reductions in emissions and soon, then this will be politically difficult to achieve against such a backdrop of such press reporting denying the IPCC message. We have also used this perspective article to consider how the debate over climate change (as induced through anthropogenic emissions) is presented through popular science books. In some ways this is equally worrying—how is it that such polarized views can be presented in books frequently citing the same research papers? With significant public funds placed in climate change research, it might be expected that the public deserve more definitive answers. So the main question here is whether (a) there remains massive uncertainty in how raised atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will manifest themselves through changes to future climates, or, (b) is there selective interpretation of key research papers (and indeed the IPCC report). If the answer is (b)—and that is consistent with the evidence—then each scientific issue raised by the sceptics should be addressed. There are important steps in this direction. For example the Royal Society has on its web site specific answers to several of the commonly used misleading arguments. See http://royalsociety.org/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 a web page entitled 'Facts and fictions about climate change'. As governments struggle to balance issues of economic development, the ubiquitous use of fossil fuels, and the need for very large reductions in emissions to ultimately stabilise the climate at safe levels, then it is essential that those involved in climate change research keep a careful note of the portrayal of their research in the media. Boykoff and Mansfield (2008) (and citations therein) make an important contribution to this process. Ultimately, of course, (for predictions corresponding to different prescribed emissions scenarios) we are working with an issue embedded in fundamental science. If newspapers and books take a sceptical angle, and through this force further reductions in uncertainty bounds surrounding available scientific understanding, then such reporting will have played a useful role, even if ultimately shown to be incorrect. But such refinement has to happen quickly—if a global consensus emerges, unchallenged, that climate change issues are being vastly overplayed (or worse are almost some form of hoax) then we could be 'sleep walking' towards eventual climatic disaster as a consequence of a 'business as usual' attitude to emissions. We believe the current debate to be vital. But ultimately, society requires a balanced presentation of the facts. It is unreasonable to expect the tabloid media to avoid oversimplification and sensational comments, but it is reasonable and necessary in support of the political process to present a balanced view, and to avoid systematic misrepresentation of the science in either direction. We believe the IPCC goes a long way towards achieving this—but there is still much to do. References Booker B and North R 2007 Scared to Death. From BSE to Global Warming: Why Scares are Costing us the Earth (London: Continuum) Boykoff M T and Mansfield M 2008 Ye Olde Hot Aire: reporting on human contributions to climate change in the UK tabloid press Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024002 Houghton J 2004 Global Warming (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2001 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed J T Houghton, Y Ding, D J Griggs, M Noguer, P J van der Linden, X Dai, K Maskell and C A Johnson (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor, and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Lawson N 2008 An Appeal to Reason: a Cool Look at Global Warming (London: Duckworth Overlook) Michaels P J 2004 Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians, and the Media (Washington: CATO Institute) Michaels P J (ed) 2005 Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield) Parker D E 2006 A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban J. Climate 19 2882 95 Pearce F 2007 The Last Generation: How Nature Will Take Her Revenge for Climate Change (London: Eden Project Books) Schellnhuber H J, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T and Yohe G (ed) 2006 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Sloan T and Wolfendale A W 2008 Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover Environ. Res. Lett. 3 024001 Smith D M, Cusack S, Colman A W, Folland C K, Harris G R and Murphy J M 2007 Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model Science 317 796 9 Spencer C 2008 Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor (New York: Encounter Books) Stott P A, Tett S F B, Jones G S, Allen M R, Mitchell J F B and Jenkins G J 2000 External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcings Science 290 2133 7 Photo of Chris Huntingford Dr Chris Huntingford has a degree in mathematics from Cambridge University, and a PhD in fluid dynamics from the University of Oxford. Since 1993 he has worked at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (formally the Institute of Hydrology), and has been mainly interested in the role of land atmosphere interactions within the global carbon cycle. Some of his activities involve collaboration with policymakers, and Chris is currently helping to understand what would happen in the world should potentially dangerous levels of climate change occur—and in particular how easy is it for the Earth System to return back to safe levels. Photo of David Fowler Professor David Fowler obtained a PhD in environmental physics from Nottingham University in 1976 and has worked for the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (previously Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) at the Edinburgh laboratory since 1975. David's research career has included work on all the major gaseous atmospheric pollutants, including several greenhouse gases. He has also worked on the effects of pollutant gases on vegetation and soil and has been closely involved with the development of UK maps of the distribution of air pollutants. He chairs and sits on several international committees looking at air pollution within Europe. David has published over 300 scientific papers and book chapters. He was awarded an honorary professorship from the University of Nottingham in 1990 and elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh in 1999 and a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 2002.

Biogeochemical responses of shallow coastal lagoons to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brito, A.; Newton, A.; Tett, P.; Fernandes, T.

2009-04-01

The importance of climate change and global warming in the near future is becoming consensual within the scientific community (e.g. Kerr et al., 2008; Lloret et al., 2008). The surface temperature and sea level have increased during the last few years in the northern hemisphere (IPCC, 2007). Predictions for future changes include an increase of surface temperature and sea level for Europe. Moreover, the global warming phenomenon will also change the hydrological cycle and increase precipitation in northern and central Europe (IPCC, 2007). Sea level rise already threatens to overwhelm some lagoons, such as Venice and Moroccan lagoons (Snoussi et al., 2008). Shallow coastal lagoons are some of the most vulnerable systems that will be impacted by these changes (Eisenreich, 2005). Environmental impacts on coastal lagoons include an increase of water turbidity and therefore light attenuation. If these effects are strong enough, the lighted bottoms of shallow lagoons may loose a significant part of the benthic algal community. These communities are highly productive and are essential to control nutrient dynamics of the system by uptaking large amounts of nutrients both from the water column and from the sediments. A decrease in benthic algal communities and photosynthetic oxygen production will also contribute to increasing the vulnerability of the lagoons to hypoxia and anoxia. The flux of nutrients such as phosphate from the sediments may increase dramatically, further disrupting the nutrient balance and condition and promoting cyanobacterial blooms. Microbial activity is temperature dependent, therefore, the increase of temperature will increase the concentrations of ammonium within sediments. The release of phosphate and silicate will also increase with temperature. Coastal lagoons are valuable ecosystems and may be severely impacted, both ecologically and economically, by global change. Shallow coastal lagoons should be considered as sentinel systems and should be carefully monitored so that appropriate responses can be timely to mitigate the impacts from global change. References: Eisenreich, S.J. (2005). Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - A report to the European Water Directors. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Comission-Joint Research Centre. Ispra, Italy. 253pp. Kerr, R. (2008). Global warming throws some curves in the Atlantic Ocean. Science, 322, 515. IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K., Tignor, M., Miller, H. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996pp. Lloret, J., Marín, A., Marín-Guirao, L. (2008). Is coastal lagoon eutrophication likely to be aggravated by global climate change? Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 78, 403-412. Snoussi, M., Ouchani, T., Niazi, S. (2008). Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: The case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 77, 206-213.

Tension between scientific certainty and meaning complicates communication of IPCC reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollin, G. J. S.; Pearce, W.

2015-08-01

Here we demonstrate that speakers at the press conference for the publication of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group 1; ref. ) attempted to make the documented level of certainty of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) more meaningful to the public. Speakers attempted to communicate this through reference to short-term temperature increases. However, when journalists enquired about the similarly short `pause’ in global temperature increase, the speakers dismissed the relevance of such timescales, thus becoming incoherent as to `what counts’ as scientific evidence for AGW. We call this the `IPCC’s certainty trap’. This incoherence led to confusion within the press conference and subsequent condemnation in the media. The speakers were well intentioned in their attempts to communicate the public implications of the report, but these attempts threatened to erode their scientific credibility. In this instance, the certainty trap was the result of the speakers’ failure to acknowledge the tensions between scientific and public meanings. Avoiding the certainty trap in the future will require a nuanced accommodation of uncertainties and a recognition that rightful demands for scientific credibility need to be balanced with public and political dialogue about the things we value and the actions we take to protect those things.

Constraints on global temperature target overshoot.

PubMed

Ricke, K L; Millar, R J; MacMartin, D G

2017-11-07

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, the climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., "overshoot") of temperature targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal rates will be an important contribution to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing, independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the scope of scenarios broadly-consistent with the WG3 database, the magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization. However, limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries requires ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature target overshoot's properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to consider how climate impacts depend on both the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Estimating Regional and National-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector using the `Agricultural and Land Use (ALU) Tool'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, S.; Ogle, S. M.; Wirth, T. C.; Sivakami, G.

2016-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides methods and guidance for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The methods are comprehensive and require extensive data compilation, management, aggregation, documentation and calculations of source and sink categories to achieve robust emissions estimates. IPCC Guidelines describe three estimation tiers that require increasing levels of country-specific data and method complexity. Use of higher tiers should improve overall accuracy and reduce uncertainty in estimates. The AFOLU sector represents a complex set of methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sinks. Major AFOLU emissions and sinks include carbon dioxide (CO2) from carbon stock change in biomass, dead organic matter and soils, urea or lime application to soils, and oxidation of carbon in drained organic soils; nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions from livestock management and biomass burning; N2O from organic amendments and fertilizer application to soils, and CH4 emissions from rice cultivation. To assist inventory compilers with calculating AFOLU-sector estimates, the Agriculture and Land Use Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool (ALU) was designed to implement Tier 1 and 2 methods using IPCC Good Practice Guidance. It guides the compiler through activity data entry, emission factor assignment, and emissions calculations while carefully maintaining data integrity. ALU also provides IPCC defaults and can estimate uncertainty. ALU was designed to simplify the AFOLU inventory compilation process at regional or national scales, disaggregating the process into a series of steps reduces the potential for errors in the compilation process. An example application has been developed using ALU to estimate methane emissions from rice production in the United States.

Communicating Certainty About Nuclear Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2013-12-01

I have been spending much of my time in the past several years trying to warn the world about the continuing danger of nuclear weapons, and that the solution is a rapid reduction in the nuclear arsenal. I feel that a scientist who discovers dangers to society has an ethical duty to issue a warning, even if the danger is so scary that it is hard for people to deal with. The debate about nuclear winter in the 1980s helped to end the nuclear arms race, but the planet still has enough nuclear weapons, even after reductions planned for 2017 under the New START treaty, to produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. New research by myself, Brian Toon, Mike Mills, and colleagues over the past six years has found that a nuclear war between any two countries, such as India and Pakistan, using 50 atom bombs each of the size dropped on Hiroshima could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history, and a world food crisis because of the agricultural effects. This is much less than 1% of the current global arsenal. Communicating certainty - what we know for sure - has been much more effective than communicating uncertainty. The limited success I have had has come from persistence and serendipity. The first step was to do the science. We have published peer-reviewed articles in major journals, including Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Physics Today, and Climatic Change. But policymakers do not read these journals. Through fairly convoluted circumstances, which will be described in this talk, we were able to get papers published in Scientific American and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. I have also published several encyclopedia articles on the subject. As a Lead Author of Chapter 8 (Radiative Forcing) of the recently published Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), I inserted a paragraph pointing out that volcanic eruptions serve as an analog that supports new work on nuclear winter. This is the first time that nuclear winter has been in the IPCC report. I will tell the story of the discussions within our chapter, with review editors, and with the IPCC leadership that resulted in a box in Chapter 8 that discusses nuclear winter. We gave a briefing to John Holdren, the President's Science Advisor, about the work. Daniel Ellsberg, Fidel Castro, and Mikhail Gorbachev found out about our work, and used the results to appeal for nuclear abolition. In 2013 the work was featured at the Conference on the Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons in Oslo, Norway attended by 132 nations, and I gave a TEDx talk, I published an opinion piece on the CNN website, and I gave an invited public lecture in Nagasaki, Japan, all about the climatic consequences of nuclear war. I am now using Twitter and Facebook to communicate about nuclear winter. The threat that nuclear weapons pose to the planet is a much easier problem to solve than global warming. We need to eliminate nuclear weapons so we have the luxury of working on the global warming problem without the possibility of the existential global threat still posed by the global nuclear arsenal.

A moderate resolution inventory of small glaciers and ice caps surrounding Greenland and the Antarctic peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Box, J. E.; Hock, R. M.; Cogley, J. G.

2011-12-01

Current estimates of global Mountain Glacier and Ice Caps (MG&IC) mass changes are subject to large uncertainties due to incomplete inventories and uncertainties in land surface classification. This presentation features mitigative efforts through the creation of a MODIS dependent land ice classification system and its application for glacier inventory. Estimates of total area of mountain glaciers [IPCC, 2007] and ice caps (including those in Greenland and Antarctica) vary 15%, that is, 680 - 785 10e3 sq. km. To date only an estimated 40% of glaciers (by area) is inventoried in the World Glacier Inventory (WGI) and made available through the World Glacier Monitoring System (WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center [NSIDC, 1999]. Cogley [2009] recently compiled a more complete version of WGI, called WGI-XF, containing records for just over 131,000 glaciers, covering approximately half of the estimated global MG&IC area. The glaciers isolated from the conterminous Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets remain incompletely inventoried in WGI-XF but have been estimated to contribute 35% to the MG&IC sea-level equivalent during 1961-2004 [Hock et al., 2009]. Together with Arctic Canada and Alaska these regions alone make up almost 90% of the area that is missing in the global WGI-XF inventory. Global mass balance projections tend to exclude ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica due to the paucity of data with respect to basic inventory base data such as area, number of glaciers or size distributions. We address the need for an accurate Greenland and Antarctic peninsula land surface classification with a novel glacier surface classification and inventory based on NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data gridded at 250 m pixel resolution. The presentation includes a sensitivity analysis for surface mass balance as it depends on the land surface classification. Works Cited +Cogley, J. G. (2009), A more complete version of the World Glacier Inventory, Ann. Glaciol. 50(53). +Hock, R., M. de Woul, V. Radi and M. Dyurgerov, 2009. Mountain glaciers and ice caps around Antarctica make a large sea-level rise contribution. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L07501, doi:10.1029/2008GL037020. +IPCC, Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis, 2007. Contribution of working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

2016-12-01

The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management in Indian mega-cities: a case study of Chennai landfill sites.

PubMed

Jha, Arvind K; Sharma, C; Singh, Nahar; Ramesh, R; Purvaja, R; Gupta, Prabhat K

2008-03-01

Municipal solid waste generation rate is over-riding the population growth rate in all mega-cities in India. Greenhouse gas emission inventory from landfills of Chennai has been generated by measuring the site specific emission factors in conjunction with relevant activity data as well as using the IPCC methodologies for CH4 inventory preparation. In Chennai, emission flux ranged from 1.0 to 23.5mg CH4m(-2)h(-1), 6 to 460microg N2Om(-2)h(-1) and 39 to 906mg CO2m(2)h(-1) at Kodungaiyur and 0.9 to 433mg CH4m(-2)h(-1), 2.7 to 1200microg N2Om(-2)h(-1) and 12.3 to 964.4mg CO2m(-2)h(-1) at Perungudi. CH4 emission estimates were found to be about 0.12Gg in Chennai from municipal solid waste management for the year 2000 which is lower than the value computed using IPCC, 1996 [IPCC, 1996. Report of the 12th session of the intergovernmental panel of climate change, Mexico City, 1996] methodologies.

Measuring Engagement with the Potential Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, N.; Danielson, R. W.; Lombardi, D.

2015-12-01

Across three studies, we investigated engagement with the consequences of climate change. We drew from the conceptual change and risk analysis literatures to find the factors that determine how much people will care about future risks. Questions derived from these factors were then asked about many hypothesized consequences of climate change. These consequences were drawn from an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report (IPCC, 2012) and, in the third study, additionally from the IPCC AR5 (IPCC, 2014). The first two studies, using undergraduate students, demonstrated that some consequences were indeed considerably more engaging than others. The third study used a more representative sample of American adults, drawn from Amazon Mechanical Turk and used the Global Warming's Six Americas Screening Tool (Maibach, Leiserowitz, Roser-Renouf, Mertz, & Akerlof, 2011) in a large screening survey to find 20 participants in each of the six audiences defined by this tool. These participants were then asked about the potential consequences of climate change. Results again showed that some consequences are considered more engaging than others, and also showed the ways in which members of these six audiences perceive the consequences of climate change differently.

The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990-2012.

PubMed

Tubiello, Francesco N; Salvatore, Mirella; Ferrara, Alessandro F; House, Jo; Federici, Sandro; Rossi, Simone; Biancalani, Riccardo; Condor Golec, Rocio D; Jacobs, Heather; Flammini, Alessandro; Prosperi, Paolo; Cardenas-Galindo, Paola; Schmidhuber, Josef; Sanz Sanchez, Maria J; Srivastava, Nalin; Smith, Pete

2015-01-10

We refine the information available through the IPCC AR5 with regard to recent trends in global GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU), including global emission updates to 2012. Using all three available AFOLU datasets employed for analysis in the IPCC AR5, rather than just one as done in the IPCC AR5 WGIII Summary for Policy Makers, our analyses point to a down-revision of global AFOLU shares of total anthropogenic emissions, while providing important additional information on subsectoral trends. Our findings confirm that the share of AFOLU emissions to the anthropogenic total declined over time. They indicate a decadal average of 28.7 ± 1.5% in the 1990s and 23.6 ± 2.1% in the 2000s and an annual value of 21.2 ± 1.5% in 2010. The IPCC AR5 had indicated a 24% share in 2010. In contrast to previous decades, when emissions from land use (land use, land use change and forestry, including deforestation) were significantly larger than those from agriculture (crop and livestock production), in 2010 agriculture was the larger component, contributing 11.2 ± 0.4% of total GHG emissions, compared to 10.0 ± 1.2% of the land use sector. Deforestation was responsible for only 8% of total anthropogenic emissions in 2010, compared to 12% in the 1990s. Since 2010, the last year assessed by the IPCC AR5, new FAO estimates indicate that land use emissions have remained stable, at about 4.8 Gt CO 2 eq yr -1 in 2012. Emissions minus removals have also remained stable, at 3.2 Gt CO 2 eq yr -1 in 2012. By contrast, agriculture emissions have continued to grow, at roughly 1% annually, and remained larger than the land use sector, reaching 5.4 Gt CO 2 eq yr -1 in 2012. These results are useful to further inform the current climate policy debate on land use, suggesting that more efforts and resources should be directed to further explore options for mitigation in agriculture, much in line with the large efforts devoted to REDD+ in the past decade. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research: Support of Ocean Carbon Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimetz-Planchon, J.; Gattuso, J.; Maddison, L.; Bakker, D. C.; Gruber, N.

2011-12-01

IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research), co-sponsored by SCOR (Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research) and IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme), coordinates research that focuses on understanding and predicting changes in oceanic food webs and biogeochemical cycles that arise from global change. An integral part of this overall goal is to understand the marine carbon cycle, with emphasis on changes that may occur as a result of a changing climate, increased atmospheric CO2 levels and/or reduced oceanic pH. To address these key ocean carbon issues, IMBER and SOLAS (Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study), formed the joint SOLAS-IMBER Carbon, or SIC Working Group. The SIC Working Group activities are organised into three sub-groups. Sub-group 1 (Surface Ocean Systems) focuses on synthesis, instrumentation and technology development, VOS (Voluntary Observing Ships) and mixed layer sampling strategies. The group contributed to the development of SOCAT (Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas, www.socat.info), a global compilation of underway surface water fCO2 (fugacity of CO2) data in common format. It includes 6.3 million measurements from 1767 cruises from 1968 and 2008 by more than 10 countries. SOCAT will be publically available and will serve a wide range of user communities. Its public release is planned for September 2011. SOCAT is strongly supported by IOCCP and CARBOOCEAN. Sub-group 2 (Interior Ocean Carbon Storage) covers inventory and observations, natural variability, transformation and interaction with modelling. It coordinated a review of vulnerabilities of the decadal variations of the interior ocean carbon and oxygen cycle. It has also developed a plan to add dissolved oxygen sensors to the ARGO float program in order to address the expected loss of oxygen as a result of ocean warming. The group also focuses on the global synthesis of ocean interior carbon observations to determine the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 since the mid 1990s. Sub-group 3 (SOLAS-IMBER Ocean Acidification or SIOA) coordinates international research efforts in ocean acidification and undertakes synthesis activities in ocean acidification at the international level. Several on-going synthesis activities, such as book projects and work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are endorsed by this group. The SIOA developed a package of activities which it identified as critical to assess the effects of ocean acidification but are, for the most part, not funded at the national or regional levels and must be carried out at the international level. Among them is the promotion of international experiments, the sharing of experimental platforms, and the undertaking of inter-comparison exercises. The SIOA has submitted a proposal to launch an Ocean Acidification International Coordination Office in March 2011. This poster highlights some results from the SIC Working Group and indicates future challenges.

Evaluation of surface water budget and assessment the global water cycle for the IPCC AR4 A1B scenario simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, H.; Park, E.; Kwon, W.

2009-12-01

Water balance calculations are becoming increasingly important for earth-system studies, because humans require water for their survival. Especially, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species. The goal of this study is to assess the closure and annual variations of the water cycles based on the multi-model ensemble approach. In this study, the projection results of the previous works focusing on global and six sub-regions are updated using sixteen atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. Before projecting future climate, model performances are evaluated on the simulation of the present-day climate. From the result, we construct and use mainly multi-model ensembles (MMEs), which is referred to as MME9, defined from nine selected AOGCMs of higher performance. Analyzed variables include annual and seasonal precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. The overall projection results from MME9 show that most regions will experience warmer and wetter climate at the end of 21st century. The evaporation shows a very similar trend to precipitation, but not in the runoff projection. The internal and inter-model variabilities are larger in the runoff than both precipitation and evaporation. Moreover, the runoff is notably reduced in Europe at the end of 21st century.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty: when is good news bad?

PubMed

Freeman, Mark C; Wagner, Gernot; Zeckhauser, Richard J

2015-11-28

Climate change is real and dangerous. Exactly how bad it will get, however, is uncertain. Uncertainty is particularly relevant for estimates of one of the key parameters: equilibrium climate sensitivity--how eventual temperatures will react as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double. Despite significant advances in climate science and increased confidence in the accuracy of the range itself, the 'likely' range has been 1.5-4.5°C for over three decades. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) narrowed it to 2-4.5°C, only to reverse its decision in 2013, reinstating the prior range. In addition, the 2013 IPCC report removed prior mention of 3°C as the 'best estimate'. We interpret the implications of the 2013 IPCC decision to lower the bottom of the range and excise a best estimate. Intuitively, it might seem that a lower bottom would be good news. Here we ask: when might apparently good news about climate sensitivity in fact be bad news in the sense that it lowers societal well-being? The lowered bottom value also implies higher uncertainty about the temperature increase, definitely bad news. Under reasonable assumptions, both the lowering of the lower bound and the removal of the 'best estimate' may well be bad news. © 2015 The Author(s).

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Evaluation of carbon dioxide emission factor from urea during rice cropping season: A case study in Korean paddy soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Gil Won; Jeong, Seung Tak; Kim, Gun Yeob; Kim, Pil Joo; Kim, Sang Yoon

2016-08-01

Fertilization with urea can lead to a loss of carbon dioxide (CO2) that was fixed during the industrial production process. The extent of atmospheric CO2 removal from urea manufacturing was estimated by the Industrial Processes and Product Use sector (IPPU sector). On its basis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed a value of 0.2 Mg C per Mg urea (available in 2006 revised IPCC guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories), which is the mass fractions of C in urea, as the CO2 emission coefficient from urea for the agricultural sector. Notably, due to the possibility of bicarbonate leaching to waters, all C in urea might not get released as CO2 to the atmosphere. Hence, in order to provide an accurate value of the CO2 emission coefficient from applied urea in the rice ecosystem, the CO2 emission factors were characterized under different levels of 13C-urea applied paddy field in the current study. The total CO2 fluxes and rice grain yields increased significantly with increasing urea application (110-130 kg N ha-1) and thereafter, decreased. However, with increasing 13C-urea application, a significant and proportional increase of the 13CO2sbnd C emissions from 13C-urea was also observed. From the relationships between urea application levels and 13CO2sbnd C fluxes from 13C-urea, the CO2sbnd C emission factor from urea was estimated to range between 0.0143 and 0.0156 Mg C per Mg urea. Thus, the CO2sbnd C emission factor of this study is less than that of the value proposed by IPCC. Therefore, for the first time, we propose to revise the current IPCC guideline value of CO2sbnd C emission factor from urea as 0.0143-0.0156 Mg C per Mg urea for Korean paddy soils.

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Solar cycle length hypothesis appears to support the ipcc on global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laut, P.; Gundermann, J.

1998-12-01

Since the discovery of a striking correlation between 1-2-2-2-1 filtered solar cycle lengths and the 11-year running average of northern hemisphere land air temperatures, there have been widespread speculations as to whether these findings would rule out any significant contributions to global warming from the enhanced concentrations of greenhouse gases. The solar hypothesis (as we shall term this assumption) claims that solar activity causes a significant component of the global mean temperature to vary in phase opposite to the filtered solar cycle lengths. In an earlier article we have demonstrated that for data covering the period 1860-1980 the solar hypothesis does not rule out any significant contribution from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The present analysis goes a step further. We analyse the period 1579-1987 and find that the solar hypothesis-instead of contradicting-appears to support the assumption of a significant warming due to human activities. We have tentatively corrected the historical northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies by removing the assumed effects of human activities. These are represented by northern hemisphere land air temperature anomalies calculated as the contributions from man-made greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols by using an upwelling diffusion-energy balance model similar to the model of [Wigley and Raper, 1993] employed in the Second Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It turns out that the agreement of the filtered solar cycle lengths with the corrected temperature anomalies is substantially better than with the historical anomalies, with the mean square deviation reduced by 36% for a climate sensitivity of 2.5°C, the central value of the IPCC assessment, and by 43% for the best-fit value of 1.7°C. Therefore our findings support a total reversal of the common assumption that a verification of the solar hypothesis would challenge the IPCC assessment of man-made global warming.

Wood waste decomposition in landfills: An assessment of current knowledge and implications for emissions reporting.

PubMed

O'Dwyer, Jean; Walshe, Dylan; Byrne, Kenneth A

2018-03-01

Large quantities of wood products have historically been disposed of in landfills. The fate of this vast pool of carbon plays an important role in national carbon balances and accurate emission reporting. The Republic of Ireland, like many EU countries, utilises the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for greenhouse gas reporting in the waste sector, which provides default factors for emissions estimation. For wood products, the release of carbon is directly proportional to the decomposition of the degradable organic carbon fraction of the product, for which the IPCC provides a value of 0.5 (50%). However, in situ analytic results of the decomposition rates of carbon in landfilled wood do not corroborate this figure; suggesting that carbon emissions are likely overestimated. To assess the impact of this overestimation on emission reporting, carbon decomposition values obtained from literature and the IPCC default factor were applied to the Irish wood fraction of landfilled waste for the years 1957-2016 and compared. Univariate analysis found a statistically significant difference between carbon (methane) emissions calculated using the IPCC default factor and decomposition factors from direct measurements for softwoods (F = 45.362, p = <.001), hardwoods (F = 20.691, p = <.001) and engineered wood products (U = 4.726, p = <.001). However, there was no significant difference between emissions calculated using only the in situ analytic decomposition factors, regardless of time in landfill, location or subsequently, climate. This suggests that methane emissions from the wood fraction of landfilled waste in Ireland could be drastically overestimated; potentially by a factor of 56. The results of this study highlight the implications of emission reporting at a lower tierand prompts further research into the decomposition of wood products in landfills at a national level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-objective programming model for assessment the GHG emissions in MSW management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavrotas, George, E-mail: mavrotas@chemeng.ntua.gr; Skoulaxinou, Sotiria; Gakis, Nikos

2013-09-15

Highlights: • The multi-objective multi-period optimization model. • The solution approach for the generation of the Pareto front with mathematical programming. • The very detailed description of the model (decision variables, parameters, equations). • The use of IPCC 2006 guidelines for landfill emissions (first order decay model) in the mathematical programming formulation. - Abstract: In this study a multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed for taking into account GHG emissions for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management. Mathematical programming models are often used for structure, design and operational optimization of various systems (energy, supply chain, processes, etc.). The last twenty yearsmore » they are used all the more often in Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management in order to provide optimal solutions with the cost objective being the usual driver of the optimization. In our work we consider the GHG emissions as an additional criterion, aiming at a multi-objective approach. The Pareto front (Cost vs. GHG emissions) of the system is generated using an appropriate multi-objective method. This information is essential to the decision maker because he can explore the trade-offs in the Pareto curve and select his most preferred among the Pareto optimal solutions. In the present work a detailed multi-objective, multi-period mathematical programming model is developed in order to describe the waste management problem. Apart from the bi-objective approach, the major innovations of the model are (1) the detailed modeling considering 34 materials and 42 technologies, (2) the detailed calculation of the energy content of the various streams based on the detailed material balances, and (3) the incorporation of the IPCC guidelines for the CH{sub 4} generated in the landfills (first order decay model). The equations of the model are described in full detail. Finally, the whole approach is illustrated with a case study referring to the application of the model in a Greek region.« less

Evaluation of the effect of accounting method, IPCC v. LCA, on grass-based and confinement dairy systems' greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

O'Brien, D; Shalloo, L; Patton, J; Buckley, F; Grainger, C; Wallace, M

2012-09-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guideline methodology, which are the principal greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification methods, were evaluated in this study using a dairy farm GHG model. The model was applied to estimate GHG emissions from two contrasting dairy systems: a seasonal calving pasture-based dairy farm and a total confinement dairy system. Data used to quantify emissions from these systems originated from a research study carried out over a 1-year period in Ireland. The genetic merit of cows modelled was similar for both systems. Total mixed ration was fed in the Confinement system, whereas grazed grass was mainly fed in the grass-based system. GHG emissions from these systems were quantified per unit of product and area. The results of both methods showed that the dairy system that emitted the lowest GHG emissions per unit area did not necessarily emit the lowest GHG emissions possible for a given level of product. Consequently, a recommendation from this study is that GHG emissions be evaluated per unit of product given the growing affluent human population and increasing demand for dairy products. The IPCC and LCA methods ranked dairy systems' GHG emissions differently. For instance, the IPCC method quantified that the Confinement system reduced GHG emissions per unit of product by 8% compared with the grass-based system, but the LCA approach calculated that the Confinement system increased emissions by 16% when off-farm emissions associated with primary dairy production were included. Thus, GHG emissions should be quantified using approaches that quantify the total GHG emissions associated with the production system, so as to determine whether the dairy system was causing emissions displacement. The IPCC and LCA methods were also used in this study to simulate, through a dairy farm GHG model, what effect management changes within both production systems have on GHG emissions. The findings suggest that single changes have a small mitigating effect on GHG emissions (<5%), except for strategies used to control emissions from manure storage in the Confinement system (14% to 24%). However, when several management strategies were combined, GHG emissions per unit of product could be reduced significantly (15% to 30%). The LCA method was identified as the preferred approach to assess the effect of management changes on GHG emissions, but the analysis indicated that further standardisation of the approach is needed given the sensitivity of the approach to allocation decisions regarding milk and meat.

Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect - Nature and Humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alevizos, Anastasios; Zygouras, Grigorios

2014-05-01

In this project twenty A grade students of Lyceum (age 16) were involved (2011-12) and had been learning to give answers to questions about greenhouse gases, their origin and the processes forming them with regard to human activity on our planet and our dependence on fossil fuels. They had considered whether and how this dependence affects global warming, how this dependence can be reduced by changing attitudes and using renewable energy sources and further more they had put questions and doubts about anthropogenic global warming existence. The student dialogues during a '' TV series debate '' concerning the views, questions and answers of three groups, the ''IPCCs'', the ''CLIMATE SCEPTICS'' and the '' REALISTS'' are exposed on a poster.

Linking Environmental Advocacy with Information from Atmospheric Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, E.

2002-05-01

Environmental advocacy demands keeping up-to-date on relevant research, extracting results from research with broader (or narrower) relevance to current policy questions, and posing questions that, at times, shape scientific research agendas. How do environmental advocates get and process scientific information?1) Advocates want scientists' work to be seen as objective and to be able to reference peer-reviewed articles from well-respected journals. At the same time, the community frequently leans on scientists to release supportive results as quickly as possible. How are these competing interests reconciled in ways that support quality, timely policy development without comprising a scientist's long-term credibility? 2) Some level of scientific uncertainty is the general rule and not the exception, and there is an understanding that policies will be set with some outstanding questions. There are personal and institutional efforts to ferret out what is as close to right as possible on any given issue, at a specific point in time. Are some ways more useful and accurate than others? 3) Linkages between related atmospheric chemistry problems can be missed. For example, state and national air advocacy groups have been working both to reduce tropospheric ozone to decrease the adverse health and ecological impacts of ozone and to reduce greenhouse gases for climate. Even though the IPCC and others have long included tropospheric ozone in its discussions of positive climate forcers, the policy connection between the two has remained largely unbridged. What are the forums and mechanism to keep up with not just what's new but also with what has been around and well-understood for awhile? 4) Funders have a large role in shaping environmental agendas. What is the best way to keep the funding community abreast of relevant scientific work?

The Potential for Methane Isotopologue Channels in GOSAT-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malina, Edward; Yoshida, Yukio; Matsunaga, Tsuneo; Muller, Jan-Peter

2017-04-01

Of the major Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) currently considered as having a major impact on atmospheric chemistry, Methane is amongst the most important (IPCC, 2014). Methane concentration in the atmosphere has been documented to be rising steadily over the past century, aside from an unexplained short period in the middle of the last decade (Heimann., 2011), leading to renewed efforts to understand global atmospheric Methane. Atmospheric Methane is primarily composed of two key isotopologues, 12CH4 and 13CH4, which have a natural abundance of about 98% and 1.1% respectively. It is a well-established fact that different sources of Methane (i.e. biogenic sources such as methanogens, or non-biogenic such as industrial hydrocarbon burning) vary in the abundance of these isotopologues (Etiope, 2009). The global identification of the ratios of these isotopologues could vastly increase knowledge of global Methane sources, and shed some light on global Methane growth. GOSAT-2 due to be launched in 2018 is a follow on from the original GOSAT mission launched in 2009. GOSAT-2 aims to continue the legacy of GOSAT by providing global measurements of Methane and Carbon Dioxide on a global basis in order to monitor GHG emissions. GOSAT-2 in the context of this study has a significant advantage over GOSAT, which is the extension of the sensitivity of band 3 to 2330nm from 2080nm where significant numbers of Methane spectral lines are located. In this study we apply the well-established Information Content (IC) analysis techniques originally proposed by Rodgers (2000) to determine the potential benefit of retrieving total column Methane isotopologue concentrations assuming bands 2 and 3 of the GOSAT-2/TANSO-FTS-2 instrument. The value of such studies has been proven on multiple occasions and can provide guidance on appropriate potential retrieval setups. Due to the fact that there has been limited research in this area, no 'a priori' state vectors or Variance Covariance Matrices (VCMs) appropriate for isotopologues have been defined previously, we therefore test a number VCMs in order to explore the constraints on retrieving independent information in the total column based on the IC analysis. This analysis and VCM variations also provide the opportunity to explore the potential errors associated with retrievals of isotopologues. Based on this study we will comment on the feasibility of Methane isotopologues retrieval with GOSAT-2 under a range of atmospheric conditions, instrument geometry and VCM setups, as well as the errors associated with these conditions. References: Etiope, G. (2009) 'Natural emissions of methane from geological seepage in Europe', Atmospheric Environment, 43(7), pp. 1430-1443. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.03.014. Heimann, M. (2011) 'Atmospheric science: Enigma of the recent methane budget', Nature, 476(7359), pp. 157-158. doi: 10.1038/476157a. IPCC. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available online: https://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/report/ Rodgers, C.D. (2000) Inverse methods for atmospheric sounding: Theory and practice. Singapore, Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Company.

Next Generation Climate Change Experiments Needed to Advance Knowledge and for Assessment of CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katzenberger, John; Arnott, James; Wright, Alyson

2014-10-30

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6,” on August 4-9, 2013 in Aspen, CO. Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Richard Moss (PNNL), and Karl Taylor (LLNL) served as co-chairs for the workshop which included the participation of 32 scientists representing most of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 160 participant days. In August 2013, AGCI gathered a high level meeting of representatives from major climate modeling centers around the world to assess achievements and lessons learned from the most recent generationmore » of coordinated modeling experiments known as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – 5 (CMIP5) as well as to scope out the science questions and coordination structure desired for the next anticipated phase of modeling experiments called CMIP6. The workshop allowed for reflection on the coordination of the CMIP5 process as well as intercomparison of model results, such as were assessed in the most recent IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1. For example, this slide from Masahiro Watanabe examines performance on a range of models capturing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).« less

Robust and Heterogeneous Hydrological Changes under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, S.; Zwiers, F. W.; Dirmeyer, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; Shrestha, R. R.; Werner, A. T.

2015-12-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has continued to find it difficult to make clear assessments of streamflow changes [Assessment Report 5, Working Group II, Chapter 3] in large part because of the heterogeneity of observed and projected hydrological changes. While prior studies have found some evidence of human influence on precipitation changes, the detection of streamflow changes is not robust. Here, we show that the terrestrial branch of the hydrological cycle, namely the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, is an important piece of the puzzle that may explain the apparent disconnect between the detectability of precipitation and streamflow changes. We apply Budyko framework to quantify sensitivity of hydrological changes to climate driven changes in water balance regionally. We demonstrate that the hydrological sensitivity is 3 times greater in regions where the hydrological cycle is energy limited (wet regions) than water limited (dry regions), and therefore the detectability of streamflow changes is also greater by 30-40% in wet regions. Evidence from observations in western North America and an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models at global scales indicate that use of the Budyko framework can help identify robust and spatially heterogeneous hydrological responses to external forcing on the climate system.

Global Water Cycle Agreement in the Climate Models Assessed in the IPCC AR4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waliser, D.; Seo, K. -W.; Schubert, S.; Njoku, E.

2007-01-01

This study examines the fidelity of the global water cycle in the climate model simulations assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The results demonstrate good model agreement in quantities that have had a robust global observational basis and that are physically unambiguous. The worst agreement occurs for quantities that have both poor observational constraints and whose model representations can be physically ambiguous. In addition, components involving water vapor (frozen water) typically exhibit the best (worst) agreement, and fluxes typically exhibit better agreement than reservoirs. These results are discussed in relation to the importance of obtaining accurate model representation of the water cycle and its role in climate change. Recommendations are also given for facilitating the needed model improvements.

Future opportunities and challenges in remote sensing of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt; Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Verdin, James P.

2012-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Future Opportunities and Challenges in Remote Sensing of Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wardlow, Brian D.; Anderson, Martha C.; Sheffield, Justin; Doorn, Brad; Zhan, Xiwu; Rodell, Matt

2011-01-01

The value of satellite remote sensing for drought monitoring was first realized more than two decades ago with the application of Normalized Difference Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for assessing the effect of drought on vegetation. Other indices such as the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were also developed during this time period, and applied to AVHRR NDVI and brightness temperature data for routine global monitoring of drought conditions. These early efforts demonstrated the unique perspective that global imagers such as AVHRR could provide for operational drought monitoring through their near-daily, global observations of Earth's land surface. However, the advancement of satellite remote sensing of drought was limited by the relatively few spectral bands of operational global sensors such as AVHRR, along with a relatively short period of observational record. Remote sensing advancements are of paramount importance given the increasing demand for tools that can provide accurate, timely, and integrated information on drought conditions to facilitate proactive decision making (NIDIS, 2007). Satellite-based approaches are key to addressing significant gaps in the spatial and temporal coverage of current surface station instrument networks providing key moisture observations (e.g., rainfall, snow, soil moisture, ground water, and ET) over the United States and globally (NIDIS, 2007). Improved monitoring capabilities will be particularly important given increases in spatial extent, intensity, and duration of drought events observed in some regions of the world, as reported in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (IPCC, 2007). The risk of drought is anticipated to further increase in some regions in response to climatic changes in the hydrologic cycle related to evaporation, precipitation, air temperature, and snow cover (Burke et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; USGCRP, 2009). Numerous national, regional, and global efforts such as the Famine and Early Warning System (FEWS), National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), and Group on Earth Observations (GEO), as well as the establishment of regional drought centers (e.g., European Drought Observatory) and geospatial visualization and monitoring systems (e.g, NASA SERVIR) have been undertaken to improve drought monitoring and early warning systems throughout the world. The suite of innovative remote sensing tools that have recently emerged will be looked upon to fill important data and knowledge gaps (NIDIS, 2007; NRC, 2007) to address a wide range of drought-related issues including food security, water scarcity, and human health.

Future changes in the Mediterranean water budget projected by an ensemble of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Gomez, E.; Somot, S.; Mariotti, A.

2009-11-01

The Mediterranean basin is a region characterized by its vulnerability to changes in the water cycle. Hence, the impact of global warming on the water resources in the Mediterranean zone is one of the major concerns for the scientific community. The future climate projections used to elaborate the IPCC report of 2007 show great alterations in the evaporation and precipitation over the Mediterranean Sea at the end of 21st century. In this work we investigate the changes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget by using SRES-A1B scenario experiments performed with high resolution (25 km) regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs provide good estimates of the water budget components, in particular with a significant improvement of the runoff and Black Sea discharge terms compared to the coarser resolution general circulation models (GCMs) used in the last Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report. As for the case of GCMs, the RCMs show that the Mediterranean water budget is likely to be significantly altered at the end of 21st century. The response of the hydrological variables to global warming starts to be statistically significant from 2050, though some alterations are already observed before 2050. The RCMs predict an increase of evaporation, and a decrease of precipitation, and river and Black Sea discharge, yielding to a large increase of the Mediterranean fresh water deficit. The freshwater deficit for the period 2070-2099 related to 1950-1999 presents a mean increase of +40% for both RCMs and GCMs.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Comparative evaluation of the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 versus the AR4 CMIP3 model ensembles for regional precipitation and their extremes over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolen, J.; Kodra, E. A.; Ganguly, A. R.

2011-12-01

The assertion that higher-resolution experiments or more sophisticated process models within the IPCC AR5 CMIP5 suite of global climate model ensembles improves precipitation projections over the IPCC AR4 CMIP3 suite remains a hypothesis that needs to be rigorously tested. The questions are particularly important for local to regional assessments at scales relevant for the management of critical infrastructures and key resources, particularly for the attributes of sever precipitation events, for example, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation. Our case study is South America, where precipitation and their extremes play a central role in sustaining natural, built and human systems. To test the hypothesis that CMIP5 improves over CMIP3 in this regard, spatial and temporal measures of prediction skill are constructed and computed by comparing climate model hindcasts with the NCEP-II reanalysis data, considered here as surrogate observations, for the entire globe and for South America. In addition, gridded precipitation observations over South America based on rain gage measurements are considered. The results suggest that the utility of the next-generation of global climate models over the current generation needs to be carefully evaluated on a case-by-case basis before communicating to resource managers and policy makers.

Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

PubMed

Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

2015-05-01

This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

Frost sensitivity of various deciduous plant species during leaf development in spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrella, Nicole; Heinzmann, Verena; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

Frost damage in deciduous woody plants is a major climate component affecting fitness and distribution of species. It is a trade-off between early bud burst enlarging the potential growing season and frost risk for deciduous plants in many regions. In a warming world observed earlier budburst may lead to an increased risk of spring frost damage caused by higher variability in temperatures (IPCC 2007). Lenz et al. (2013) showed that leaves are in general more sensitive to frost in later leaf development stages. But still there is little knowledge on stages of leaf development and their susceptibility to frost damage in many deciduous species. Additionally there might be variation with plant traits or different strategies within specific groups of species. Frost risk minimization can also be achieved by variability in bud burst within a specimen. Therefore, in this study we observed more than 174 individual plant specimen of 96 deciduous woody plant species growing in a comparable microclimate outside on the campus of the Technical University of Munich in Freising, southern Germany. Their phenology was intensively studied from 12th of March to 4th of May, including variation within a specimen. Several times twigs for the frost experiment were cut in different stages of leaf development and exposed to freezing temperatures of -4 and -6°C in two lab freezers. Since the leaf development in spring 2015 started comparably late, too many species emerged simultaneously leading to some capacity problems in the freezers. Nevertheless, our results still reveal novel aspects concerning leaf development and frost sensitivity. The phenological development proceeded in general from outside to inside of the crown (59%), in 33% of the cases all over the plant simultaneously. Sporadic, inside to outside or vertical development characteristics occurred in rare cases (8%). Mixed model analysis indicated impacts on phenology by plant family, natural origin, pollination mode, and development characteristic (in decreasing order of significance). The frost experiment clearly showed that damage at -6°C was larger than at -4°C and that twigs frosted at later dates, thus in higher phenological development stages, were more prone to frost damage than twigs frosted at earlier dates / in lower development stages. Additionally, there was a phylogenetic effect since frost damage significantly varied with plant family whereas plant origin had no relevance. References Lenz A, Hoch G, Vitasse Y, Körner C (2013) European deciduous trees exhibit similar safety margins against damage by spring freeze events along elevational gradients. New Phytologist 200: 1166-1175. Stocker T, Qin D, Platner G (2013) Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers (IPCC, 2013).

Coastal sea level projections with improved accounting for vertical land motion

PubMed Central

Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Nan; Yang, Jingsong; Chen, Nancy

2015-01-01

Regional and coastal mean sea level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) account only for vertical land motion (VLM) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which may significantly under- or over-estimate sea level rise. Here we adjust AR5-like regional projections with the VLM from Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements and/or from a combination of altimetry and tide-gauge data, which include both GIA and non-GIA VLM. Our results at selected tide-gauge locations on the North American and East Asian coasts show drastically different projections with and without non-GIA VLM being accounted for. The present study points to the importance of correcting IPCC AR5 coastal projections for the non-GIA VLM in making adaptation decisions. PMID:26526287

Coastal sea level projections with improved accounting for vertical land motion.

PubMed

Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Nan; Yang, Jingsong; Chen, Nancy

2015-11-03

Regional and coastal mean sea level projections in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) account only for vertical land motion (VLM) associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which may significantly under- or over-estimate sea level rise. Here we adjust AR5-like regional projections with the VLM from Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements and/or from a combination of altimetry and tide-gauge data, which include both GIA and non-GIA VLM. Our results at selected tide-gauge locations on the North American and East Asian coasts show drastically different projections with and without non-GIA VLM being accounted for. The present study points to the importance of correcting IPCC AR5 coastal projections for the non-GIA VLM in making adaptation decisions.

Geoethics: IPCC disgraced by violation of observational facts and physical laws in their sea level scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

Sea level may rise due to glacier melting, heat expansion of the oceanic water column, and redistribution of the waster masses - all these factors can be handled as to rates and amplitudes (provided one knows what one is talking about). In key areas over the entire Indian Ocean and in many Pacific Islands there are no traces of and sea level rise over the last 40-50 years. This is also the case for test-areas like Venice and the North Sea coasts. In the Kattegatt Sea one can fix the sea level factor to a maximum rise of 1.0-0.9 mm/year over the last century. The 204 tide gauges selected by NOAA for their global sea level monitoring provide a strong and sharp maximum (of 182 sites) in the range of 0.0-2.0 mm/yr. Satellite altimetry is said to give a rise of 3.2 mm/yr; this, however, is a value achieved after a quite subjective and surely erroneous "correction". The IPCC is talking about exceptionally much higher rates, and even worse are some "boy scouts" desperate try to launce real horror ratios. Physical laws set the frames of the rate and amount of ice melting, and so do records of events in the past (i.e. the geological records). During the Last Ice Age so much ice was accumulated on land, that the sea level dropped by about 120 m. When the process was reversed and ice melted under exceptionally strong climate forcing, sea level rose at a maximum rate of about 10 mm/yr (a meter per century). This can never happen under today's climate conditions. Even with IPCC's hypothetical scenarios, the true sea rise must be far less. When people like Rahmstorf (claiming 1 m or more by 2100) and Hansen (claiming a 4 m rise from 2080 to 2100) give their values, they exceed what is possible according to physical laws and accumulated geological knowledge. The expansion of the oceanic water column may reach amounts of sea level rise in the order of a few centimetres, at the most a decimetre. Old temperature measurements may record a temperature rise over the last 50 years in the order of 0.4o C. The improved ARGO measurements starting 2004 give virtually no change, however. The physically possible amount of expansion decreases, of course, with the decreasing water columns towards the coasts, and at the coasts it is zero (±0.0 mm). The redistribution of water masses in response to the Earth's rotation, surface current beat, wind stress, air pressure, etc. is an important factor. It gives local to regional changes, cancelled out on the global scale, however. From a geoethical point of view, it is of course quite blameworthy that IPCC excels in spreading these horror scenarios of a rapid, even accelerating, sea level rise. Besides, modern understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction shows that we are now on our way into grand solar minimum with severely colder climate - that is just the opposite to IPCC's talk about an accelerating warming. In science we should debate - but we should not dictate (as IPCC insist upon), and it is here the perspectives of geoethics comes into the picture.

Traceable accounts of subjective probability judgments in the IPCC and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, P. G.

2012-12-01

One of the major sources of controversy surrounding the reports of the IPCC has been the characterization of uncertainty. Although arguably the IPCC has paid more attention to the process of uncertainty analysis and communication than any comparable assessment body, its efforts to achieve consistency have produced mixed results. In particular, the extensive use of subjective probability assessment has attracted widespread criticism. Statements such as "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years" are ubiquitous (one online database lists nearly 3000 such claims), and indeed are the primary way in which its key "findings" are reported. Much attention is drawn to the precise quantitative definition of such statements (e.g., "very likely" means >90% probability, vs. "extremely likely" which means >95% certainty). But there is no process by which the decision regarding the choice of such uncertainty level for a given finding is formally made or reported, and thus they are easily by disputed by anyone, expert or otherwise, who disagrees with the assessment. In the "Uncertainty Guidance Paper" for the Third Assessment Report, Richard Moss and Steve Schneider defined the concept of a "traceable account," which gave exhaustive detail regarding how one ought to provide documentation of such an uncertainty assessment. But the guidance, while appearing straightforward and reasonable, in fact was an unworkable recipe, which would have taken near-infinite time if used for more than a few key results, and would have required a different structuring of the text than the conventional scientific assessment. And even then it would have left a gap when it came to the actual provenance of any such specific judgments, because there simply is no formal step at which individuals turn their knowledge of the evidence on some finding into a probability judgment. The Uncertainty Guidance Papers for the TAR and subsequent assessments have left open the possibility of using such an expert elicitation within the IPCC drafting process, but to my knowledge it has never been done. Were it in fact attempted, it would reveal the inconvenient truth that there is no uniquely correct method for aggregating probability statements; indeed the standard practice within climate-related expert elicitations has been to report all individual estimates without aggregation. But if a report requires a single "consensus estimate," once you have even a single divergent opinion, the question of how to aggregate becomes unavoidable. In this paper, I review in greater detail the match or lack of it between the vision of a "traceable account" and IPCC practice, and the public discussion of selected examples of probabilistic judgments in AR4. I propose elements of a structure based on a flexible software architecture that could facilitate the development and documentation of what I call "collective subjective probability." Using a simple prototype and a pair of sample "findings" from AR4, I demonstrate an example of how such a structure could be used by a small expert community to implement a practical model of a "traceable account." I conclude with as discussion of the prospects of using such modular elicitations in support of, or as an alternative to, conventional IPCC assessment processes.

Land-Use and Climate : first results from the LUCID experiments ; implications for experimental design in IPCC-AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Noblet, N.; Pitman, A.; Participants, Lucid

2009-04-01

The project "Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts" (LUCID) was conceived under the auspices of IGBP-iLEAPS and GEWEX-GLASS, to address the robustness of 'local' and possible remote impacts of land-use induced land-cover changes (LCC). LUCID explores, using methodologies that major climate modelling groups recognise, those impacts of LCC that are robust - that is, above the noise generated by model variability and consistent across a suite of climate models. To start with, seven climate models were run, in ensemble mode (5 realisations per 31-years long experiment), with prescribed observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice extent (SIc). Pre-industrial and present-day simulations were used to explore the impacts of biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change. The imposed LCC perturbation led to statistically significant changes in latent heat flux and near-surface temperature over the regions of land cover change, but few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of land cover change. They also highlight a dilemma for both historical hind-casts and future projections; land cover change is regionally important, but it is not feasible within the time frame of the next IPCC (AR5) assessment to implement this change commonly across multiple models. Further analysis are in progress and will be presented to identify the continental regions where changes in LCC may have been more important than the combined changes in SSTs, SIc and CO2 between the pre-industrial times and nowadays.

The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

2013-04-01

The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the policy framework of climate change adaptation (CCA). Three main innovations are proposed with respect to the current state of the art: (1) to include the social capacities of reducing risk, (2) to go beyond the estimation direct tangible costs, and (3) to provide an operational solution for decision support to assess risks, impacts and the benefits of plausible risk reduction measures, compatible with both the DRR and the CCA literatures. As stated above, the proposed framework is the inclusion of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacities) in the process of translating risk into a comprehensive cost matrix considering not only direct tangible costs (damages), but also the three other components deriving from the combination of tangible/intangible and direct/indirect costs. The proposed KIRAF approach is thus expected to provide: 1) an operational basis for multidisciplinary integration; 2) a flexible reference to deal with heterogeneous case studies and potentially various types of hazards; and 3) a means to support the assessment of alternative risk prevention measures including consideration of social and cultural dimensions.

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its submission, but it will be discussed in the report.

Big Data Challenges in Climate Science: Improving the Next-Generation Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Lee, Tsengdar J.; Mattmann, Chris A.; Lynnes, Christopher S.; Cinquini, Luca; Ramirez, Paul M.; Hart, Andre F.; Williams, Dean N.; Waliser, Duane; Rinsland, Pamela;

Translating landfill methane generation parameters among first-order decay models.

PubMed

Krause, Max J; Chickering, Giles W; Townsend, Timothy G

2016-11-01

Landfill gas (LFG) generation is predicted by a first-order decay (FOD) equation that incorporates two parameters: a methane generation potential (L 0 ) and a methane generation rate (k). Because non-hazardous waste landfills may accept many types of waste streams, multiphase models have been developed in an attempt to more accurately predict methane generation from heterogeneous waste streams. The ability of a single-phase FOD model to predict methane generation using weighted-average methane generation parameters and tonnages translated from multiphase models was assessed in two exercises. In the first exercise, waste composition from four Danish landfills represented by low-biodegradable waste streams was modeled in the Afvalzorg Multiphase Model and methane generation was compared to the single-phase Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model and LandGEM. In the second exercise, waste composition represented by IPCC waste components was modeled in the multiphase IPCC and compared to single-phase LandGEM and Australia's Solid Waste Calculator (SWC). In both cases, weight-averaging of methane generation parameters from waste composition data in single-phase models was effective in predicting cumulative methane generation from -7% to +6% of the multiphase models. The results underscore the understanding that multiphase models will not necessarily improve LFG generation prediction because the uncertainty of the method rests largely within the input parameters. A unique method of calculating the methane generation rate constant by mass of anaerobically degradable carbon was presented (k c ) and compared to existing methods, providing a better fit in 3 of 8 scenarios. Generally, single phase models with weighted-average inputs can accurately predict methane generation from multiple waste streams with varied characteristics; weighted averages should therefore be used instead of regional default values when comparing models. Translating multiphase first-order decay model input parameters by weighted average shows that single-phase models can predict cumulative methane generation within the level of uncertainty of many of the input parameters as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which indicates that decreasing the uncertainty of the input parameters will make the model more accurate rather than adding multiple phases or input parameters.

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

PubMed Central

Hare, Jonathan A.; Wuenschel, Mark J.; Kimball, Matthew E.

2012-01-01

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species. PMID:23284974

Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. W.

2009-05-01

Research on future climate change is driven by the family of scenarios developed for the IPCC assessment reports. These scenarios create projections of future energy demand using different story lines consisting of government policies, population projections, and economic models. None of these scenarios consider resources to be limiting. In many of these scenarios oil production is still increasing to 2100. Resource limitation (in a geological sense) is a real possibility that needs more serious consideration. The concept of 'Peak Oil' has been discussed since M. King Hubbert proposed in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. His prediction was accurate. This concept is about production rate not reserves. For many oil producing countries (and all OPEC countries) reserves are closely guarded state secrets and appear to be overstated. Claims that the reserves are 'proven' cannot be independently verified. Hubbert's Linearization Model can be used to predict when half the ultimate oil will be produced and what the ultimate total cumulative production (Qt) will be. US oil production can be used as an example. This conceptual model shows that 90% of the ultimate US oil production (Qt = 225 billion barrels) will have occurred by 2011. This approach can then be used to suggest that total global production will be about 2200 billion barrels and that the half way point will be reached by about 2010. This amount is about 5 to 7 times less than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. The decline of Non-OPEC oil production appears to have started in 2004. Of the OPEC countries, only Saudi Arabia may have spare capacity, but even that is uncertain, because of lack of data transparency. The concept of 'Peak Coal' is more controversial, but even the US National Academy Report in 2007 concluded only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves in the US are actually minable reserves and that US reserves should be reassessed using modern methods. British coal production can be used as a case study for testing the applicability the Linearization Model approach. This model has been applied to the various world regions by D. Rutledge (Cal Tech). The regions are summed to estimate global production. The conclusion is that the world's coal resources may be much less (maybe by 10 times) than assumed by the IPCC scenarios. Several research groups, including K. Aleklett (Uppsala), the Energy Watch Group and the Institute of Energy (IFE) and have independently reached the same conclusion. Simulations by D. Rutledge of atmospheric CO2 levels, using these values of ultimate oil and coal production as an input, suggest that atmospheric CO2 could reach maximum concentrations as low as 450 ppm. While some of these conclusions are controversial, available data clearly suggest that resource limitation should be given serious consideration in future climate change scenarios. There are also serious implications for economic recovery and energy security as well.

Chapter 7: Managing Carbon

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog; Duncan C. McKinley; Richard A. Birdsey; Sarah J. Hines; Christopher W. Woodall; Elizabeth D. Reinhardt; James M. Vose

2014-01-01

Storing carbon (C) and offsetting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions with the use of wood for energy, both of which slow emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere, present significant challenges for forest management (IPCC 2001).

No more summaries for wonks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Black, Richard

2015-04-01

IPCC assessments present an unparalleled opportunity for climate science to speak directly to power. Re-thinking the summaries written for policymakers would enable scientists to communicate far more effectively with political leaders and the public.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, C.; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster (United Nations 2004), causing approximately6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone (Doocy et al. 2013).Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD(Munich Re 2013). Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries (Davies et al. 2014).Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change (IPCC 2007). Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assessflooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure.

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Song, Jun

2016-08-01

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset (predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis (predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992-1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output (2.0°×2.5°) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25°×0.25° resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

Evolution of the potential distribution area of french mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-02-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growths with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE - MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20 and 21 centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5°K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak, respectively) at the end of the 21 century. While both species have complementary growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21 century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

The Risks of Missing the 2°C Target and the Risks of Framing the Target As 2°C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, L. H.

2014-12-01

The publication of IPCC AR5 has made it very clear that we are at risk of missing the 2°C target. It has also made it clear that the risks of missing this target would be very dire. But when read through a precautionary lens, it also illustrates potential risks of framing an appropriate climate target as 2°C. We ought to be doing all we can to limit the extent of climate change as much as possible, and framing our target as limiting warming to 2°C may mask the demandingness and urgency of addressing climate change aggressively and holistically. In this session I will summarize my work on what precaution demands in the face of climate change and discuss how it applies to AR5. I argue for a Catastrophic Precautionary Principle that gives us strong moral reasons to take precautionary measures against threats of catastrophe, such as those posed by climate change. I will explain how the IPCC's discussion of the five reasons for concern about climate change support a strong moral argument that we ought to be taking a much more precautionary approach to climate policy than is currently evidenced by UNFCCC agreements and domestic policies around the world. While AR5 supports the conclusion that we should not risk missing the 2°C target, it also supports reevaluating what our target - and more generally what our comprehensive approach to climate policy - should be. In this way, I will discuss the complex science-ethics-policy nexus and the role of climate science in guiding precautionary global climate policies.

[County-scale N2O emission inventory of China's manure management system].

PubMed

Wang, Chuan; Gao, Wei; Zhou, Feng; Chen, Qing; Ying, Na; Xu, Peng; Hou, Xi-Kang

2013-10-01

Manure is one of the two largest contributors to China's N2O emission. By using the county-scale activity data and the regional emission factors and related parameters with spatial differentiation in China in 2008, this paper assessed the N2O emission loading, sources profile, spatial pattern, and uncertainty, aimed to establish a high-resolution N2O emission inventory of China's manure management system in 2008. As compared with the research results based on the IPCC, EDGAR, and other works, the proposed emission inventory was more reliable and comprehensive. The total China' s N2O emission from manure in 2008 was estimated as 572 Gg, among which, the emission from the manure except pasture/range/paddock was 322 Gg (56.3%), from the manure in pasture/range/paddock was 180 Gg (31.5%), and the indirect emission from atmospheric volatilized N deposition and leaching/runoff was 45.8 Gg (8.0%) and 1.23 Gg (0.2%), respectively. The spatial pattern of China's N2O emission from manure was more centralized, and mainly concentrated in Jilin, Shandong, Sichuan, Hunan, Henan, Heilongjiang, and Liaoning provinces, contributing 52.4% of the total emission, and more than 25% being from 84 counties (only < 3% of the whole counties). The proposed emission inventory had a higher spatial resolution and accuracy. Different with this inventory, the IPCC underestimated the direct emission while overestimated the indirect emission, with the regions of higher emission rate being underestimated by -1.5%-6.0% and those of lower emission rate being overestimated by 1.6%-13%. As for the EDGAR, the regions of higher emission rate were underestimated by -18. 8--50.0%, and those of lower emission rate were mostly overestimated by 25%-54.1%.

Revised classification/nomenclature of vitiligo and related issues: the Vitiligo Global Issues Consensus Conference

PubMed Central

Ezzedine, K.; Lim, H. W.; Suzuki, T.; Katayama, I.; Hamzavi, I.; Lan, C. C. E.; Goh, B. K.; Anbar, T.; de Castro, C. Silva; Lee, A. Y.; Parsad, D.; van Geel, N.; Le Poole, I. C.; Oiso, N.; Benzekri, L.; Spritz, R.; Gauthier, Y.; Hann, S. K.; Picardo, M.; Taieb, A.

2012-01-01

Summary During the 2011 International Pigment Cell Conference (IPCC), the Vitiligo European Taskforce (VETF) convened a consensus conference on issues of global importance for vitiligo clinical research. As suggested by an international panel of experts, the conference focused on four topics: classification and nomenclature; definition of stable disease; definition of Koebner’s phenomenon (KP); and ‘autoimmune vitiligo’. These topics were discussed in seven working groups representing different geographical regions. A consensus emerged that segmental vitiligo be classified separately from all other forms of vitiligo and that the term ‘vitiligo’ be used as an umbrella term for all non-segmental forms of vitiligo, including ‘mixed vitiligo’ in which segmental and non-segmental vitiligo are combined and which is considered a subgroup of vitiligo. Further, the conference recommends that disease stability be best assessed based on the stability of individual lesions rather than the overall stability of the disease as the latter is difficult to define precisely and reliably. The conference also endorsed the classification of KP for vitiligo as proposed by the VETF (history based, clinical observation based, or experimentally induced). Lastly, the conference agreed that ‘autoimmune vitiligo’ should not be used as a separate classification as published evidence indicates that the pathophysiology of all forms of vitiligo likely involves autoimmune or inflammatory mechanisms. PMID:22417114

Revised classification/nomenclature of vitiligo and related issues: the Vitiligo Global Issues Consensus Conference.

PubMed

Ezzedine, K; Lim, H W; Suzuki, T; Katayama, I; Hamzavi, I; Lan, C C E; Goh, B K; Anbar, T; Silva de Castro, C; Lee, A Y; Parsad, D; van Geel, N; Le Poole, I C; Oiso, N; Benzekri, L; Spritz, R; Gauthier, Y; Hann, S K; Picardo, M; Taieb, A

2012-05-01

During the 2011 International Pigment Cell Conference (IPCC), the Vitiligo European Taskforce (VETF) convened a consensus conference on issues of global importance for vitiligo clinical research. As suggested by an international panel of experts, the conference focused on four topics: classification and nomenclature; definition of stable disease; definition of Koebner's phenomenon (KP); and 'autoimmune vitiligo'. These topics were discussed in seven working groups representing different geographical regions. A consensus emerged that segmental vitiligo be classified separately from all other forms of vitiligo and that the term 'vitiligo' be used as an umbrella term for all non-segmental forms of vitiligo, including 'mixed vitiligo' in which segmental and non-segmental vitiligo are combined and which is considered a subgroup of vitiligo. Further, the conference recommends that disease stability be best assessed based on the stability of individual lesions rather than the overall stability of the disease as the latter is difficult to define precisely and reliably. The conference also endorsed the classification of KP for vitiligo as proposed by the VETF (history based, clinical observation based, or experimentally induced). Lastly, the conference agreed that 'autoimmune vitiligo' should not be used as a separate classification as published evidence indicates that the pathophysiology of all forms of vitiligo likely involves autoimmune or inflammatory mechanisms. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Bridging the Gap Between Policy and Research Infrastructure: Risk and Vulnerability Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugo, Wim; Rogers, Annabelle

2017-04-01

Linking sound scientific data and conclusions to decision and policy support is not a trivial task, and the difficulty in achieving this has been highlighted more than a decade ago (Reid, 2004). There are several reasons why this is the case, inter alia: 1. The language, (vocabularies, framework, and heuristics) adopted by the research community in a specific discipline may not translate into meaningful implementation language (Preston et al., 2015); 2. The researchers may not be in a position of influence (which includes aspects such as writing policy briefs, undertaking personal initiatives, and building up public or industry concern and interest) (Fox and Sitkin, 2015); 3. The frequency, timing, and/or certainty associated with research output is at odds with decision and policy-making cycles. Research typically progresses until there is a defensible level of certainty in statistical assessment of a result, while policy decisions are often made within a regular cycle; 4. Scientists are not trained for, or measured by, the typical work required for decision and policy support: synthesis of scenarios and cost-benefits of such scenarios given sometimes significant uncertainty in the input data, and cross-disciplinary concerns that need to be balanced. There is a significant expectation that research output, being increasingly open, standardised, and managed in formal research data infrastructure, will be useful to policy and decision makers without much additional intervention and modification. We believe that this is unlikely to be feasible in the majority of cases. For most instances, it will be necessary to provide a framework for the translation of scientific output into decision and policy support metrics or indicators at a frequency, with spatial and temporal resolution, and thematic coverage that suits the decision to be made. Such frameworks exist, since the need has been identified - sometimes formally - such as the very detailed framework developed by IPCC for translating climate science into policy - (IPCC, 2007), or less formally - such as the move to develop Essential Biodiversity Variables, loosely designed to support Aichi Targets (Pereira et al., 2013) or the UN Sustainable Development Goals (UN, 2016). In the paper, we examine a number of these frameworks, map them onto a generic framework for the translation of research output into policy and decision support, and discuss an example from the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas in detail. References Craig R. Fox & Sim B. Sitkin (2015). Bridging the divide between behavioral science & policy, Behavioral Science & Policy, Spring 2015, https://behavioralpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/1-1/Bridging-the-divide-between-behavioral-science-and-policy.pdf IPCC (2007). Conceptual framework for the identification and assessment of key vulnerabilities, https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch19s19-1-2.html Pereira et al. (2013). Essential Biodiversity Variables, Science 18 Jan 2013: Vol. 339, Issue 6117, pp. 277-278 DOI: 10.1126/science.1229931 Preston, B.L., Mustelin, J. & Maloney, M.C. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2015) 20: 467. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9503-x Reid WV (2004) Bridging the Science-Policy Divide. PLoS Biol 2(2): e27. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.0020027 UN (2016). Sustainable Development Goals, http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

2010-07-01

An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for bigeye tuna spawning. The adult feeding habitat also improved in the ETP due to the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration in the sub-surface allowing adults to access deeper forage. Conversely, in the Western Central Pacific the temperature becomes too warm for bigeye tuna spawning. The decrease in spawning is compensated by an increase of larvae biomass in subtropical regions. However, natural mortality of older stages increased due to lower habitat values (too warm surface temperatures, decreasing oxygen concentration in the sub-surface and less food). This increased mortality and the displacement of surviving fish to the eastern region led to stable then declining adult biomass at the end of the century.

Geoethics disgraced by Copernicus in its desperate act of covering up for the IPCC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mörner, Nils-Axel

2014-05-01

All my life I have put observational facts in the centre. This is what Leonardo da Vinci called "to read the book of mother Earth". For a geologist this is very natural because this is the core of the geological profession. The IPCC, on the other hand, put all credits on models and scenarios. One of its founders and its first president, Bert Bolin, at a debate in the Geophysical Society of Sweden in 2001, admitted (quotation): "you can order whatever scenario you wish". With this as a background, we can put a recent action by Copernicus at a test with respect to geoethics and normal decency. The idea that the planetary motions affect and control the solar variability is old, but in the stage of an unproven hypothesis. In recent years major advancements have occurred and in 2013, it seemed that time was ripe for a major, multi-authored, reinvestigation. Therefore, a Special Issue of Pattern Recognition in Physics was devoted to: "Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts". The volume includes 12 separate research papers and General Conclusions, co-authored by 19 prominent scientists. Indeed, they agreed that the driving factor of solar variability must emerge from the planetary beat on the Sun, and by that its emission of luminosity and Solar Wind both factors of which affect the Earth-Moon system. This may be held as a benchmark event in our understanding of the planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction. Furthermore, they noted two implications of this: partly that the old hypothesis was now lifted to a firm theory, maybe even a new paradigm, and partly that we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC". "We were alarmed by the second implication", Martin Rasmussen, VD of Copernicus, stated, and took the unbelievable decision immediately to close down the entire journal. This happened on January 17 without any discussion with the editors (and with two papers in the process of being printed). Suddenly, by this decision, we were thrown back in the evolution of humanism and culture to the stage of inquisition and books burning? Still, the notion that we, from a planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction point of view, are on our way down into a grand solar minimum is vital in order to understand our near future: we the solar-terrestrial scientists say "cooling" whilst the IPCC says "warming". To debate is a vital part of science. To forbid and even close down a journal because of an inevitable conclusion which "sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as claimed by the IPCC" is most unscientific and unethical.

Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

Observed "wild" natural fluctuations may differ substantially in their character. Some events may be genuinely unforeseen (and unforeseeable), as with Taleb's "black swans". These may occur singly, or may have their impact further magnified by being ``bunched" in time. Some of the others may, however, be the rare extreme events from a light-tailed underlying distribution. Studying their occurrence may then be tractable with the methods of extreme value theory [e.g. Coles, 2001], suitably adapted to allow correlation if that is observed to be present. Yet others may belong to a third broad class, described in today's presentation [ reviewed in Watkins, GRL Frontiers, 2013, doi: 10.1002/grl.50103]. Such "bursty" time series may show comparatively frequent high amplitude events, and/or long range correlations between successive values. The frequent large values due to the first of these effects, modelled in economics by Mandelbrot in 1963 using heavy- tailed probability distributions, can give rise to an "IPCC type I" burst composed of successive wild events. Conversely, long range dependence, even in a light-tailed Gaussian model like Mandelbrot and van Ness' fractional Brownian motion, can integrate ``mild" events into an extreme "IPCC type III" burst. I will show how a standard statistical time series model, linear fractional stable motion (LFSM), which descends from the two special cases advocated by Mandelbrot, allows these two effects to be varied independently, and will present results from a preliminary study of such bursts in LFSM. The consequences for burst scaling when low frequency effects due to dissipation (FARIMA models), and multiplicative cascades (such as multifractals) are included will also be discussed, and the physical assumptions and constraints associated with making a given choice of model.

Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watkins, N. W.

2014-12-01

Observed "wild" natural fluctuations may differ substantially in their character. Some events may be genuinelyunforeseen (and unforeseeable), as with Taleb's "black swans". These may occur singly, or may have their impactfurther magnified by being "bunched" in time. Some of the others may, however, be the rare extreme events from alight-tailed underlying distribution. Studying their occurrence may then be tractable with the methods of extremevalue theory [e.g. Coles, 2001], suitably adapted to allow correlation if that is observed to be present. Yet others may belong to a third broad class, described in today's presentation [ reviewed in Watkins, GRLFrontiers, 2013, doi: 10.1002/grl.50103]. Such "bursty" time series may show comparatively frequent highamplitude events, and/or long range correlations between successive values. The frequent large values due to thefirst of these effects, modelled in economics by Mandelbrot in 1963 using heavy- tailed probability distributions,can give rise to an "IPCC type I" burst composed of successive wild events. Conversely, long range dependence,even in a light-tailed Gaussian model like Mandelbrot and van Ness' fractional Brownian motion, can integrate"mild" events into an extreme "IPCC type III" burst. I will show how a standard statistical time series model, linear fractional stable motion (LFSM), which de-scends from the two special cases advocated by Mandelbrot, allows these two effects to be varied independently,and will present results from a preliminary study of such bursts in LFSM. The consequences for burst scaling whenlow frequency effects due to dissipation (FARIMA models), and multiplicative cascades (such as multifractals)are included will also be discussed, and the physical assumptions and constraints associated with making a givenchoice of model.

PERSPECTIVE: Keeping a closer eye on fossil fuel CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Peter F.

2009-12-01

Peter F Nelson The world is watching expectantly as the clock winds down towards the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15; http://en.cop15.dk/) to be held 7-18 December 2009 in Copenhagen. While most are now convinced of the need for a strong and concerted response to the climate challenge, the exact nature and extent of that response remains uncertain. There is evidence (Barnett 2009) that current estimates of emissions now exceed all but the most extreme emission scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). If that increase in emissions persists then temperature increases of 4 °C by 2060 have been predicted (Barnett 2009). An inevitable result of the potential for such extreme climate change is to advance the need for multiple adaptation strategies to decision making about, for example, infrastructure, urban planning and forest management. These strategies need to do more than incremental adaptation (Barnett 2009); instead transformative approaches may be required to adapt. The timing of the response is also proving to be a critical determining factor in the effectiveness of global actions. Using a simple conceptual model of emissions, Vaughan and co-workers (Vaughan et al 2009) show that avoiding dangerous climate change is more effective if such action begins early. Early action is also more effective than acting more aggressively later (Vaughan et al 2009). Uncertainties, although reduced, are still significant in the science of climate change. The interactions between control of particulate air pollutants and climate change are particularly challenging (Arneth et al 2009, Shindell et al 2009) but many other uncertainties require continuing research. The scientific uncertainties are only one aspect of an intense interdisciplinary, political, economic and cultural dialogue. It is clear that political will, economic interest, target setting for emissions reductions, adaptation, technology and financing (Pan 2009) will all have a major influence on progress to an international agreement. It is important that the political challenges are not underestimated. Long-term observers of the negotiations necessary for global agreements (Inman 2009) are pessimistic about the chances for success at COP15, and argue that agreements between smaller groups of countries may be more effective. China and other developing countries clearly expect greater emission cuts by developed nations as a condition for a successful deal (Pan 2009). Conversely, the constraints on US climate policies are considerable, notably those imposed by fears that an international agreement that does not include equitable emission control measures for developing countries like China and India, will compromise the agreement and reduce its effectiveness (Skodvin and Andresen 2009). In this context the need for earlier, and more reliable, information on emissions is a high priority. Myhre and coworkers (Myhre et al 2009) provide an efficient method for calculating global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by combining industry statistics with data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC; http://cdiac.ornl.gov/). Recent analyses of carbon dioxide emission data show a worrying acceleration in emissions, beyond even the most extreme IPCC projections, but are based largely on the CDIAC which gives information about emissions released two to three years before real time (Canadell et al 2007, Raupach et al 2007). The approach used by Myhre et al (2009) uses BP annual statistics of fossil fuel consumption and has a much shorter lag, of the order of six months. Of significant concern is that their analysis of the data also reveals that the recent strong increase in fossil fuel CO2 is largely driven by an increase in emissions from coal, most significantly in China. By contrast, emissions from oil and gas continue to follow longer-term historical trends. Earlier and accurate data on CO2 emissions is important for a range of reasons. It allows comparison with the scenarios developed by the IPCC; uncertainties in emission scenarios are one of the major sources of uncertainties in temperature projections, particularly at longer time scales, where temperature projections are increasingly dependent on specific emission scenarios (IPCC 2007). There have also been recent suggestions (Le Quere et al 2007) of a weakening of the oceanic sink for CO2, and earlier information on emission pathways will be important for testing this hypothesis. Some observers (Levi 2009) believe that the best outcome from COP15 may be an agreement on measurement, reporting and verification. While this may seem like a modest ambition, progress in this area is essential to a successful climate change measure and to compliance with any international agreement. As Levi (2009) points out, `such verification will help make it more politically feasible to undertake similar emissions-cutting actions elsewhere, including in the United States'. The approach of Myhre et al is a very useful tool in such independent verification. References Arneth A, Unger N, Kulmala M and Andreae M O 2009 Clean the air, heat the planet? Science 326 672-3 Barnett A 2009 No easy way out Nature Reports Climate Change 3 128-9 Canadell J G, Le Quere C, Raupach M R, Field C B, Buitenhuis, E T, Ciais P, Conway T J, Gillett N P, Houghton R A and Marland G 2007 Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 18866-70 Inman M 2009 The climate change game Nature Reports Climate Change 3 130-3 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Report on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC) 104pp Le Quere C, Rodenbeck C, Buitenhuis E T, Conway T J, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, Gillett N and Heimann M 2007 Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Science 316 1735-8 Levi M A 2009 Copenhagen's inconvenient truth: how to salvage the climate conference Foreign Affairs 92-103 Myhre G, Alterskjaer K and Lowe D 2009 A fast method for updating global fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 4 034012 Pan J 2009 China expects leadership from rich nations Nature 461 1055 Raupach M R, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quere C, Canadell J G, Klepper G and Field C B 2007 Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104 10288-93 Shindell D T, Faluvegi G, Koch D M, Schmidt G A, Unger N and Bauer S E 2009 Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions Science 326 716-8 Skodvin T and Andresen S 2009 An agenda for change in US climate policies? Presidential ambitions and congressional powers Int. Environ. Agreements: Politics Law Econ. 9 263-80 Vaughan N E, Lenton T M and Shepherd J G 2009 Climate change mitigation: trade-offs between delay and strength of action required Climatic Change 96 29-43

UT/LS chemistry and transport

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-25

This SSWP summarizes important results in key areas since the last major aircraft impacts assessment [IPCC 1999]. Significant progress has been made in the areas of: Measurements of emissions of chemi-ions, NOx, and trace organic species from aircraf...

Progress toward Consensus Estimates of Regional Glacier Mass Balances for IPCC AR5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arendt, A. A.; Gardner, A. S.; Cogley, J. G.

2011-12-01

Glaciers are potentially large contributors to rising sea level. Since the last IPCC report in 2007 (AR4), there has been a widespread increase in the use of geodetic observations from satellite and airborne platforms to complement field observations of glacier mass balance, as well as significant improvements in the global glacier inventory. Here we summarize our ongoing efforts to integrate data from multiple sources to arrive at a consensus estimate for each region, and to quantify uncertainties in those estimates. We will use examples from Alaska to illustrate methods for combining Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), elevation differencing and field observations into a single time series with related uncertainty estimates. We will pay particular attention to reconciling discrepancies between GRACE estimates from multiple processing centers. We will also investigate the extent to which improvements in the glacier inventory affect the accuracy of our regional mass balances.

Development of a thermal gradient cloud condensation nucleus spectrometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leu, Ming-Taun; Friedl, R.

2004-01-01

Droplet clouds are one of the most important factors controlling the albedo and hence the temperature of out planet. Anthropogenic aerosols, such as black carbon (BC) organic carbon (OC) and sulfate, have a strong influence on cloud albedo. IPCC (2001) has estimated the global mean forcing from aerosols to be potentially as large as that of green house gases but opposite in sign. However, the uncertainties associated with the indirect aerosol forcing preclude a quantitative estimate. An additional impact on the indirect aerosol forcing, not quantified by IPCC, arises from recently identified chemical factors, for examples, interactions of atmospheric soluble gases, slightly soluble solutes, and organic substance with aerosols, which may influence the formation of cloud droplets. Recent studies suggest that inclusion of chemical effects on aerosol droplets. We plan to conduct several critical laboratory experiments that will reduce the uncertainty associated with indirect radiative forcing due to chemical modification of sulfate and BC aerosols by ambient gases.

Estimation of the spatial validity of local aerosol measurements in Europe using MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcos, Carlos; Gómez-Amo, J. Luis; Pedrós, Roberto; Utrillas, M. Pilar; Martínez-Lozano, J. Antonio

2013-04-01

The actual impact of atmospheric aerosols in the Earth's radiative budget is still associated to large uncertainties [IPCC, 2007]. Global monitoring of the aerosol properties and distribution in the atmosphere is needed to improve our knowledge of climate change. The instrumentation used for this purpose can be divided into two main groups: ground-based and satellite-based. Ground-based instruments, like lidars or Sun-photometers, are usually designed to measure accurate local properties of atmospheric aerosols throughout the day. However, the spatial validity of these measurements is conditioned by the aerosol variability within the atmosphere. Satellite-based sensors offer spatially resolved information about aerosols at a global scale, but generally with a worse temporal resolution and in a less detailed way. In this work, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550nm from MODIS Aqua, product MYD04 [Remer, 2005], is used to estimate the area of validity of local measurements at different reference points, corresponding to the AERONET [Holben, 1998] stations during the 2011-2012 period in Europe. For each case, the local AOD (AODloc) at each reference point is calculated as the averaged MODIS data within a radius of 15 km. Then, the AODloc is compared to the AOD obtained when a larger averaging radius is used (AOD(r)), up to 500 km. Only those cases where more than 50% of the pixels in each averaging area contain valid data are used. Four factors that could affect the spatial variability of aerosols are studied: proximity to the sea, human activity, aerosol load and geographical location (latitude and longitude). For the 76 reference points studied, which are sited in different regions of Europe, we have determined that the root mean squared difference (RMSD) between AODloc and AOD(r) , averaged for all cases, increases in a logarithmic way with the averaging radius (RMSD ? log(r)), while the linear correlation coefficient (R) decreases following a logarithmic trend (R ? -log(r)). Among all the factors studied, the aerosol load is the most influential one in the aerosol spatial variability: for averaging radii smaller than 40 km, the RMSD increases with AODloc. Another important factor is the latitude and longitude: the variation of the RMSD in the AOD with regard to the averaging radius can differ up to a 60%, depending on the location. On the contray, the proximity to the sea and the amount of population surrounding each reference point do not have a noticeable influence compared to the above mentioned factors. Holben, B. N., Eck, T. F., Slutsker, I., Buis, J. P., Setzer, A., Vermote, E., Reagan, J. A., Kaufman, Y., Nakajima, T., Lavenu, F., and Smirnov, A.: AERONET - A federated instrument network and data archive for aerosol characterization, Remote Sens. Environ., 66, 1-16, 1998. IPCC (2007). S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, USA. Remer, L. A., y co-authors, 2005: The MODIS aerosol algorithm, products, and validation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 947-973. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS3385.1

The role of N2O derived from crop-based biofuels, and from agriculture in general, in Earth's climate

PubMed Central

Smith, Keith A.; Mosier, Arvin R.; Crutzen, Paul J.; Winiwarter, Wilfried

2012-01-01

In earlier work, we compared the amount of newly fixed nitrogen (N, as synthetic fertilizer and biologically fixed N) entering agricultural systems globally to the total emission of nitrous oxide (N2O). We obtained an N2O emission factor (EF) of 3–5%, and applied it to biofuel production. For ‘first-generation’ biofuels, e.g. biodiesel from rapeseed and bioethanol from corn (maize), that require N fertilizer, N2O from biofuel production could cause (depending on N uptake efficiency) as much or more global warming as that avoided by replacement of fossil fuel by the biofuel. Our subsequent calculations in a follow-up paper, using published life cycle analysis (LCA) models, led to broadly similar conclusions. The N2O EF applies to agricultural crops in general, not just to biofuel crops, and has made possible a top-down estimate of global emissions from agriculture. Independent modelling by another group using bottom-up IPCC inventory methodology has shown good agreement at the global scale with our top-down estimate. Work by Davidson showed that the rate of accumulation of N2O in the atmosphere in the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries was greater than that predicted from agricultural inputs limited to fertilizer N and biologically fixed N (Davidson, E. A. 2009 Nat. Geosci. 2, 659–662.). However, by also including soil organic N mineralized following land-use change and NOx deposited from the atmosphere in our estimates of the reactive N entering the agricultural cycle, we have now obtained a good fit between the observed atmospheric N2O concentrations from 1860 to 2000 and those calculated on the basis of a 4 per cent EF for the reactive N. PMID:22451102

Heat stress-induced effects of photosystem I: an overview of structural and functional responses.

PubMed

Ivanov, Alexander G; Velitchkova, Maya Y; Allakhverdiev, Suleyman I; Huner, Norman P A

2017-09-01

Temperature is one of the main factors controlling the formation, development, and functional performance of the photosynthetic apparatus in all photoautotrophs (green plants, algae, and cyanobacteria) on Earth. The projected climate change scenarios predict increases in air temperature across Earth's biomes ranging from moderate (3-4 °C) to extreme (6-8 °C) by the year 2100 (IPCC in Climate change 2007: The physical science basis: summery for policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 2007; Climate change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, IPCC WG3 Fifth Assessment Report 2014). In some areas, especially of the Northern hemisphere, even more extreme warm seasonal temperatures may occur, which possibly will cause significant negative effects on the development, growth, and yield of important agricultural crops. It is well documented that high temperatures can cause direct damages of the photosynthetic apparatus and photosystem II (PSII) is generally considered to be the primary target of heat-induced inactivation of photosynthesis. However, since photosystem I (PSI) is considered to determine the global amount of enthalpy in living systems (Nelson in Biochim Biophys Acta 1807:856-863, 2011; Photosynth Res 116:145-151, 2013), the effects of elevated temperatures on PSI might be of vital importance for regulating the photosynthetic response of all photoautotrophs in the changing environment. In this review, we summarize the experimental data that demonstrate the critical impact of heat-induced alterations on the structure, composition, and functional performance of PSI and their significant implications on photosynthesis under future climate change scenarios.

Development of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cattle from Benin using IPCC Tier 2 methodology.

PubMed

Kouazounde, J B; Gbenou, J D; Babatounde, S; Srivastava, N; Eggleston, S H; Antwi, C; Baah, J; McAllister, T A

2015-03-01

The objective of this study was to develop emission factors (EF) for methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation in cattle native to Benin. Information on livestock characteristics and diet practices specific to the Benin cattle population were gathered from a variety of sources and used to estimate EF according to Tier 2 methodology of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Most cattle from Benin are Bos taurus represented by Borgou, Somba and Lagune breeds. They are mainly multi-purpose, being used for production of meat, milk, hides and draft power and grazed in open pastures and crop lands comprising tropical forages and crops. Estimated enteric CH4 EFs varied among cattle breeds and subcategory owing to differences in proportions of gross energy intake expended to meet maintenance, production and activity. EFs ranged from 15.0 to 43.6, 16.9 to 46.3 and 24.7 to 64.9 kg CH4/head per year for subcategories of Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. Average EFs for cattle breeds were 24.8, 29.5 and 40.2 kg CH4/head per year for Lagune, Somba and Borgou cattle, respectively. The national EF for cattle from Benin was 39.5 kg CH4/head per year. This estimated EF was 27.4% higher than the default EF suggested by IPCC for African cattle with the exception of dairy cattle. The outcome of the study underscores the importance of obtaining country-specific EF to estimate global enteric CH4 emissions.

Quantifying Uncertainties in N2O Emission Due to N Fertilizer Application in Cultivated Areas

PubMed Central

Philibert, Aurore; Loyce, Chantal; Makowski, David

2012-01-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a greenhouse gas with a global warming potential approximately 298 times greater than that of CO2. In 2006, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated N2O emission due to synthetic and organic nitrogen (N) fertilization at 1% of applied N. We investigated the uncertainty on this estimated value, by fitting 13 different models to a published dataset including 985 N2O measurements. These models were characterized by (i) the presence or absence of the explanatory variable “applied N”, (ii) the function relating N2O emission to applied N (exponential or linear function), (iii) fixed or random background (i.e. in the absence of N application) N2O emission and (iv) fixed or random applied N effect. We calculated ranges of uncertainty on N2O emissions from a subset of these models, and compared them with the uncertainty ranges currently used in the IPCC-Tier 1 method. The exponential models outperformed the linear models, and models including one or two random effects outperformed those including fixed effects only. The use of an exponential function rather than a linear function has an important practical consequence: the emission factor is not constant and increases as a function of applied N. Emission factors estimated using the exponential function were lower than 1% when the amount of N applied was below 160 kg N ha−1. Our uncertainty analysis shows that the uncertainty range currently used by the IPCC-Tier 1 method could be reduced. PMID:23226430

Macroeconomics of Natural Disasters: Strengths and Weaknesses of Meta-Analysis Versus Review of Literature.

PubMed

A G van Bergeijk, Peter; Lazzaroni, Sara

2015-06-01

We use the case of the macroeconomic impact of natural disasters to analyze strengths and weaknesses of meta-analysis in an emerging research field. Macroeconomists have published on this issue since 2002 (we identified 60 studies to date). The results of the studies are contradictory and therefore the need to synthesize the available research is evident. Meta-analysis is a useful method in this field. An important aim of our article is to show how one can use the identified methodological characteristics to better understand the robustness and importance of new findings. To provide a comparative perspective, we contrast our meta-analysis and its findings with the major influential research synthesis in the field: the IPCC's 2012 special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. We show that the IPCC could have been more confident about the negative economic impact of disasters and more transparent on inclusion and qualification of studies, if it had been complemented by a meta-analysis. Our meta-analysis shows that, controlling for modeling strategies and data set, the impact of disasters is significantly negative. The evidence is strongest for direct costs studies where we see no difference between our larger sample and the studies included in the IPCC report. Direct cost studies and indirect cost studies differ significantly, both in terms of the confidence that can be attached to a negative impact of natural disasters and in terms of the sources of heterogeneity of the findings reported in the primary studies. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

2014-05-01

Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2 emissions from sterilized soils and their unsterilized counterparts are compared. Moreover, different pH treatments are compared to analyze how soil pH affects extracellular CO2 release. Students benefit from experimental learning. Practical courses, being either in the field or indoors are of vital importance to bring soil processes to life and to evaluate implications for environment and climate change. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 996 pp. Maire, V., G. Alvarez, J. Colombet, A. Comby, R. Despinasse, E. Dubreucq, M. Joly, A.-C. Lehours, V. Perrier, T. Shahzad, and S. Fontaine. 2013. An unknown oxidative metabolism substantially contributes to soil CO2 emissions. Biogeochemistry, 10, 1155-1167, 2013

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs

EPA Science Inventory

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the impoundment of rivers and the flooding of terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can increase rates of greenhouse gas emission, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes ...

Land Use and Climate Variability Amplify Contaminant Pulses

EPA Science Inventory

Converting land to human-dominated uses has increased contaminant loads in streams and rivers and vastly transformed hydrological cycles (Vitousek et al. 1997). More recently, climate change has further altered hydrologic cycles and variability of precipitation (IPCC 2007). Toge...

Evaluation and application of site-specific data to revise the first-order decay model for estimating landfill gas generation and emissions at Danish landfills.

PubMed

Mou, Zishen; Scheutz, Charlotte; Kjeldsen, Peter

2015-06-01

Methane (CH₄) generated from low-organic waste degradation at four Danish landfills was estimated by three first-order decay (FOD) landfill gas (LFG) generation models (LandGEM, IPCC, and Afvalzorg). Actual waste data from Danish landfills were applied to fit model (IPCC and Afvalzorg) required categories. In general, the single-phase model, LandGEM, significantly overestimated CH₄generation, because it applied too high default values for key parameters to handle low-organic waste scenarios. The key parameters were biochemical CH₄potential (BMP) and CH₄generation rate constant (k-value). In comparison to the IPCC model, the Afvalzorg model was more suitable for estimating CH₄generation at Danish landfills, because it defined more proper waste categories rather than traditional municipal solid waste (MSW) fractions. Moreover, the Afvalzorg model could better show the influence of not only the total disposed waste amount, but also various waste categories. By using laboratory-determined BMPs and k-values for shredder, sludge, mixed bulky waste, and street-cleaning waste, the Afvalzorg model was revised. The revised model estimated smaller cumulative CH₄generation results at the four Danish landfills (from the start of disposal until 2020 and until 2100). Through a CH₄mass balance approach, fugitive CH₄emissions from whole sites and a specific cell for shredder waste were aggregated based on the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes. Aggregated results were in good agreement with field measurements, indicating that the revised Afvalzorg model could provide practical and accurate estimation for Danish LFG emissions. This study is valuable for both researchers and engineers aiming to predict, control, and mitigate fugitive CH₄emissions from landfills receiving low-organic waste. Landfill operators use the first-order decay (FOD) models to estimate methane (CH₄) generation. A single-phase model (LandGEM) and a traditional model (IPCC) could result in overestimation when handling a low-organic waste scenario. Site-specific data were important and capable of calibrating key parameter values in FOD models. The comparison study of the revised Afvalzorg model outcomes and field measurements at four Danish landfills provided a guideline for revising the Pollutants Release and Transfer Registers (PRTR) model, as well as indicating noteworthy waste fractions that could emit CH₄at modern landfills.

Accounting For Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Flooded Lands

EPA Science Inventory

Nearly three decades of research has demonstrated that the inundation of rivers and terrestrial ecosystems behind dams can lead to enhanced rates of greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories includes a method...

Remote Sensing for Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Diane

2011-01-01

Remote sensing is being used more and more for decision-making and policy development. Specific examples are: (1) Providing constraints on climate models used in IPCC assessments (2) Framing discussions about greenhouse gas monitoring (3) Providing support for hazard assessment and recovery.

The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

2014-12-01

Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Stockwell, PhD

2010-09-23

Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature andmore » precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).« less

Douglas J. Arent - Deputy Associate Lab Director, Scientific Computing

Science.gov Websites

Coordinating Lead Author for the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of Sciences Panel on Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, and also served on the

Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

2015-01-01

China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China. PMID:26865831

Evaluation of simulated ocean carbon in the CMIP5 earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, James; Brockmann, Patrick; Seferian, Roland; Servonnat, Jérôme; Bopp, Laurent

2013-04-01

We maintain a centralized model output archive containing output from the previous generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), 7 models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. Output is in a common format located on a centralized server and is publicly available through a web interface. Through the same interface, LSCE/IPSL has also made available output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the foundation for the ongoing IPCC AR5 assessment. The latter includes ocean biogeochemical fields from more than 13 ESMs. Modeling partners across 3 EU projects refer to the combined AR4-AR5 archive and comparison as OCMIP5, building on previous phases of OCMIP (Ocean Carbon Cycle Intercomparison Project) and making a clear link to IPCC AR5 (CMIP5). While now focusing on assessing the latest generation of results (AR5, CMIP5), this effort is also able to put them in context (AR4). For model comparison and evaluation, we have also stored computed derived variables (e.g., those needed to assess ocean acidification) and key fields regridded to a common 1°x1° grid, thus complementing the standard CMIP5 archive. The combined AR4-AR5 output (OCMIP5) has been used to compute standard quantitative metrics, both global and regional, and those have been synthesized with summary diagrams. In addition, for key biogeochemical fields we have deconvolved spatiotemporal components of the mean square error in order to constrain which models go wrong where. Here we will detail results from these evaluations which have exploited gridded climatological data. The archive, interface, and centralized evaluation provide a solid technical foundation, upon which collaboration and communication is being broadened in the ocean biogeochemical modeling community. Ultimately we aim to encourage wider use of the OCMIP5 archive.

Radiative Forcing by Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases: Estimates from Climate Models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W. D.; Ramaswamy, V.; Schwarzkopf, M. D.; Sun, Y.; Portmann, R. W.; Fu, Q.; Casanova, S. E. B.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fillmore, D. W.; Forster, P. M. D.;

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines.

PubMed

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk; Kim, Jae Young

2015-02-01

According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH4 produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobic condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH4/CO2 ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3-1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0-2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH4+CO2% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Disaggregated N2O emission factors in China based on cropping parameters create a robust approach to the IPCC Tier 2 methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Anita; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Nayak, Dali; Newbold, Jamie; Moran, Dominic; Dhanoa, Mewa Singh; Goulding, Keith; Smith, Pete; Cardenas, Laura M.

2015-12-01

China accounts for a third of global nitrogen fertilizer consumption. Under an International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 2 assessment, emission factors (EFs) are developed for the major crop types using country-specific data. IPCC advises a separate calculation for the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions of rice cultivation from that of cropland and the consideration of the water regime used for irrigation. In this paper we combine these requirements in two independent analyses, using different data quality acceptance thresholds, to determine the influential parameters on emissions with which to disaggregate and create N2O EFs. Across China, the N2O EF for lowland horticulture was slightly higher (between 0.74% and 1.26% of fertilizer applied) than that for upland crops (values ranging between 0.40% and 1.54%), and significantly higher than for rice (values ranging between 0.29% and 0.66% on temporarily drained soils, and between 0.15% and 0.37% on un-drained soils). Higher EFs for rice were associated with longer periods of drained soil and the use of compound fertilizer; lower emissions were associated with the use of urea or acid soils. Higher EFs for upland crops were associated with clay soil, compound fertilizer or maize crops; lower EFs were associated with sandy soil and the use of urea. Variation in emissions for lowland vegetable crops was closely associated with crop type. The two independent analyses in this study produced consistent disaggregated N2O EFs for rice and mixed crops, showing that the use of influential cropping parameters can produce robust EFs for China.

A carbon cycle science update since IPCC AR-4.

PubMed

Dolman, A J; van der Werf, G R; van der Molen, M K; Ganssen, G; Erisman, J-W; Strengers, B

2010-01-01

We review important advances in our understanding of the global carbon cycle since the publication of the IPCC AR4. We conclude that: the anthropogenic emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning have increased up through 2008 at a rate near to the high end of the IPCC emission scenarios; there are contradictory analyses whether an increase in atmospheric fraction, that might indicate a declining sink strength of ocean and/or land, exists; methane emissions are increasing, possibly through enhanced natural emission from northern wetland, methane emissions from dry plants are negligible; old-growth forest take up more carbon than expected from ecological equilibrium reasoning; tropical forest also take up more carbon than previously thought, however, for the global budget to balance, this would imply a smaller uptake in the northern forest; the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean are increasingly better understood and bottom up and observation-based top down estimates are getting closer to each other; the North Atlantic and Southern ocean take up less CO2, but it is unclear whether this is part of the 'natural' decadal scale variability; large-scale fires and droughts, for instance in Amazonia, but also at Northern latitudes, have lead to significant decreases in carbon uptake on annual timescales; the extra uptake of CO2 stimulated by increased N-deposition is, from a greenhouse gas forcing perspective, counterbalanced by the related additional N2O emissions; the amount of carbon stored in permafrost areas appears much (two times) larger than previously thought; preservation of existing marine ecosystems could require a CO2 stabilization as low as 450 ppm; Dynamic Vegetation Models show a wide divergence for future carbon trajectories, uncertainty in the process description, lack of understanding of the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen-carbon interaction are major uncertainties.

Nitrous oxide exchanges with the atmosphere of a constructed wetland treating wastewater. Parameters and implications for emission factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johansson, A. E.; Kasimir Klemedtsson, Å.; Klemedtsson, L.; Svensson, B. H.

2003-07-01

Static chamber measurements of N2O fluxes were taken during the 1998 and 1999 growth seasons in a Swedish constructed wetland receiving wastewater. The dominating plant species in different parts of the wetland were Lemna minor L., Typha latifolia L., Spirogyra sp. and Glyceria maxima (Hartm.) and Phalaris arundinacea (L.), respectively. There were large temporal and spatial variations in N2O fluxes, which ranged from consumption at -350 to emissions at 1791 μg N2O m-2 h-1. The largest positive flux occurred in October 1999 and the lowest in the middle of July 1999. The average N2O flux for the two years was 130 μg N2O m-2 h-1 (SD = 220). No significant differences in N2O fluxes were found between the years, even though the two growing seasons differed considerably with respect to both air temperature and precipitation. 15% of the fluxes were negative, showing a consumption of N2O. Consumption occurred on a few occasions at most measurement sites and ranged from 1-350 μg N2O m-2 h-1. 13-43% of the variation in N2O fluxes was explained by multiple linear regression analysis including principal components. Emission factors were calculated according to IPCC methods from the N2O fluxes in the constructed wetland. The calculated emission factors were always lower (0.02-0.27%) compared to the default factor provided by the IPCC (0.75%). Thus, direct application of the IPCC default factor may lead to overestimation of N2O fluxes from constructed wastewater-treating wetlands.

U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

PubMed

Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

2009-02-01

We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

GNSS climatology: A summary of findings from the COST Action ES1206 GNSS4SWEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Olivier; Pacione, Rosa

2017-04-01

Working Group 3 of COST Action GNSS4SWEC promoted the coordinated development and assessment of GNSS tropospheric products for climate research. More than 50 researchers from 17 institutions participated in the discussions. The activities were organised in five main topics, each of which led to conclusions and recommendations for a proper production and use of GNSS tropospheric products for climate research. 1) GNSS data processing and validation: an inventory was established listing the main existing reprocessed datasets and one of them (IGS repro1) was more specifically assessed and used as a community dataset to demonstrate the capacity of GNSS to retrieve decadal trends and variability in zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD). Several groups performed also processing sensitivity studies producing long term (15 years or more) solutions and testing the impact of various processing parameters (tropospheric models, cutoff angle…) on the accuracy and stability of the retrieved ZTD estimates. 2) Standards and methods for post-processing: (i) elaborate screening methods have been developed and tested for the detection of outliers in ZTD data; (ii) ZTD to IWV conversion methods and auxiliary datasets have been reviewed and assessed; (iii) the homogeneity of long ZTD and IWV time series has been investigated. Standardised procedures were proposed for first two points. Inhomogeneities have been identified in all reprocessed GNSS datasets which are due to equipment changes or changes in the measurement conditions. Significant activity is on-going on the development of statistical homogenisation techniques that match the GNSS data characteristics. 3) IWV validations: new intercomparisons of GNSS IWV estimates to IWV retrieved from other observational techniques (radiosondes, microwave radiometers, VLBI, DORIS…) have been encouraged to enhance the results of the past and contribute to a better evaluation of inter-technique biases and absolute accuracy of the different IWV sensing techniques. 4) GNSS climatology: as a major goal of this working group, applications have been promoted in collaboration with the climate research community such as the analysis of global and regional trends and variability, the evaluation of global and regional climate model simulations (IPCC, EC-Earth, CORDEX…) and reanalysis products (ERA-Interim, ERA20C, 20CR…). 5) Databases and data formats: cooperation with IGS and EUREF fostered the specification and development of new database structures and updated SINEX format for a more efficient and enhanced exchange, use, and validation of GNSS tropospheric data.

Analysis of Changes in the Lorenz Energy Budget of the Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, T. D.

2009-12-01

Several recent papers have addressed the topic of changes in global precipitation rates related to changes in Earth's global energy balance. Less studied are the processes that may be governing the large-scale regional distribution of precipitation around the globe. This study uses the energy budget partition paradigm first put forth by Lorenz (1955) and follows the methodology of Arpé et al. (1986) and Oriol (1982) to identify latitude bands where the partition of energy amongst zonal and eddy kinetic and potential energy bins may account for the spatial patterns of precipitation change predicted by many IPCC AR4 models. In doing so, this study may help to identify whether or not the climate change predicted by these models is indeed creating enhanced baroclinic storms in the mid-latitudes or if there are other mechanisms at work producing the patterns of precipitation change.

Marine nitrous oxide emissions: An unknown liability for the international water sector

EPA Science Inventory

Reliable estimates of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are essential for setting effective climate policy at both the sector and national level. Current IPCC Guidelines for calculating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from sewage management are both highly uncertain and ...

75 FR 77475 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Proposed Threatened Status for Subspecies of the Ringed Seal

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-10

... ice area are linked in the IPCC climate models to GHG emissions by the physics of radiation processes... scenario), a model that is known for incorporating advanced sea ice physics, and for which snow data were...

Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

National Hydroclimatic Change and Infrastructure Adaptation Assessment: Region-Specific Adaptation Factors

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change, land use and socioeconomic developments are principal variables that define the need and scope of adaptive engineering and management to sustain water resource and infrastructure development. As described in IPCC (2007), hydroclimatic changes in the next 30-50 ye...

Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge The Fourth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC) in 2007 was unequivocal in its message that warming of the global climate system is now occurring, and found...

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-01-01

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Relationship between Trends in Land Precipitation and Tropical SST Gradient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V.

2007-01-01

In this study, we examined global zonal/annual mean precipitation trends. Land precipitation trend from 1951 to 2002 shows widespread drying between 10 S to 20 N but the trend from 1977 to 2002 shows partial recovery. Based on general circulation model sensitivity studies, we suggested that these features are driven largely by the meridional SST gradient trend in the tropics. Our idealized CCM3 experiments substantiated that land precipitation is more sensitive to meridional SST gradient than to an overall tropical warming. Various simulations produced for the IPCC 4th assessment report demonstrate that increasing CO2 increases SST in the entire tropics non-uniformly and increases land precipitation only in certain latitude belts, again pointing to the importance of SST gradient change. Temporally varying aerosols in the IPCC simulations alter meridional SST gradient and land precipitation substantially. Anthropogenic aerosol direct solar forcing without its effects on SST is shown by the CCM3 to have weak but non-negligible influence on land precipitation.

Authorship in IPCC AR5 and its implications for content: climate change and Indigenous populations in WGII.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Vanderbilt, Will; Berrang-Ford, Lea

This essay examines the extent to which we can expect Indigenous Knowledge, understanding, and voices on climate change ('Indigenous content') to be captured in WGII of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), based on an analysis of chapter authorship. Reviewing the publishing history of 309 chapter authors (CAs) to WGII, we document 9 (2.9%) to have published on climate change and Indigenous populations and involved as authors in 6/30 chapters. Drawing upon recent scholarship highlighting how authorship affect structure and content of assessment reports, we argue that, unaddressed, this will affect the extent to which Indigenous content is examined and assessed. While it is too late to alter the structure of AR5, there are opportunities to prioritize the recruitment of contributing authors and reviewers with expertise on Indigenous issues, raise awareness among CAs on the characteristics of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability faced by Indigenous peoples, and highlight how Indigenous perspectives can help broaden our understanding of climate change and policy interventions.

Relationships of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor, Clouds and SST: MLS Observations, ECMWF Analyses and GCM Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Hui; Waliser, Duane E.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Li, Jui-lin; Read, William G.; Waters, Joe W.; Tompkins, Adrian M.

2006-01-01

The relationships of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV), cloud ice and sea surface temperature (SST) are examined in the annual cycles of ECMWF analyses and simulations from 15 atmosphere-ocean coupled models which were contributed to the IPCC AR4. The results are compared with the observed relationships based on UTWV and cloud ice measurements from MLS on Aura. It is shown that the ECMWF analyses produce positive correlations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST, similar to the MLS data. The rate of the increase of cloud ice and UTWV with SST is about 30% larger than that for MLS. For the IPCC simulations, the relationships between UTWV, cloud ice and SST are qualitatively captured. However, the magnitudes of the simulated cloud ice show a considerable disagreement between models, by nearly a factor of 10. The amplitudes of the approximate linear relations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST vary by a factor up to 4.

How will coastal sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J.; Grinsted, A.

2010-12-01

Sea level rise is perhaps the most damaging repercussion of global warming, as 150 million people live less than one meter above current high tides .Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in coastal sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SO2 equivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12 -20 years.

The Borderlands and climate change: Chapter 10 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Joan; Gray, Floyd; Dubiel, Russell; Langman, Jeff; Moring, J. Bruce; Norman, Laura M.; Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.

2013-01-01

The prediction of global climate change in response to both natural forces and human activity is one of the defining issues of our times. The unprecedented observational capacity of modern earth-orbiting satellites coupled with the development of robust computational representations (models) of the Earth’s weather and climate systems afford us the opportunity to observe and investigate how these systems work now, how they have worked in the past, and how they will work in the future when forced in specific ways. In the most recent report on global climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Solomon and others, 2007), analyses using multiple climate models support recent observations that the Earth’s climate is changing in response to a combination of natural and human-induced causes. These changes will be significant in the United States–Mexican border region, where the process of climate change affects all of the Borderlands challenge themes discussed in the preceding chapters. The dual possibilities of both significantly-changed climate and increasing variability in climate make it challenging to take full measure of the potential effects because the Borderlands already experience a high degree of interannual variability and climatological extremes.

Effects of global climate change on maize volatile production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] are projected to have critical impacts on precipitation patterns, potentially leading to a dramatic increase in the frequency and duration of drought across the North American Corn Belt and other agriculturally relevant areas around the world (IPCC2007...

Crop response to climate: ecophysical models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecophysiological models were the dominant tools used to estimate the potential impact of climate change in agroecosystems in the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of the IPCC and are widely used elsewhere in climate change research. These models, also known as “crop models” or “simulation models”,...

Impacts of episodic storms on coastal wetland processes in the Northeastern U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

Climate model simulations corresponding to IPCC emissions scenarios suggest that by 2100, increases in precipitation intensity, the number of heavy precipitation events, and the intensity of the wettest events are all expected to increase, while concurrently, one to three month d...

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: A Challenge to U.S. Sovereignty

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-07

biofuels, and fuel-conserving winglets .51 The technological improvements are not insignificant. The IPCC assumed that advances in aircraft...16, 2012.) 51 Winglets are extensions added to the ends of an aircraft wings. They disrupt the wingtip vortices created during the production of lift

Simulating Soil C Stock with the Process-based Model CQESTR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gollany, H.; Liang, Y.; Rickman, R.; Albrecht, S.; Follett, R.; Wilhelm, W.; Novak, J.; Douglas, C.

2009-04-01

The prospect of storing carbon (C) in soil, as soil organic matter (SOM), provides an opportunity for agriculture to contribute to the reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere while enhancing soil properties. Soil C models are useful for examining the complex interactions between crop, soil management practices and climate and their effects on long-term carbon storage or loss. The process-based carbon model CQESTR, pronounced ‘sequester,' was developed by USDA-ARS scientists at the Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center, Pendleton, Oregon, USA. It computes the rate of biological decomposition of crop residues or organic amendments as they convert to SOM. CQESTR uses readily available field-scale data to assess long-term effects of cropping systems or crop residue removal on SOM accretion/loss in agricultural soil. Data inputs include weather, above- ground and below-ground biomass additions, N content of residues and amendments, soil properties, and management factors such as tillage and crop rotation. The model was calibrated using information from six long-term experiments across North America (Florence, SC, 19 yrs; Lincoln, NE, 26 yrs; Hoytville, OH, 31 yrs; Breton, AB, 60 yrs; Pendleton, OR, 76 yrs; and Columbia, MO, >100 yrs) having a range of soil properties and climate. CQESTR was validated using data from several additional long-term experiments (8 - 106 yrs) across North America having a range of SOM (7.3 - 57.9 g SOM/kg). Regression analysis of 306 pairs of predicted and measured SOM data under diverse climate, soil texture and drainage classes, and agronomic practices at 13 agricultural sites resulted in a linear relationship with an r2 of 0.95 (P < 0.0001) and a 95% confidence interval of 4.3 g SOM/kg. Estimated SOC values from CQESTR and IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were compared to observed values in three relatively long-term experiments (20 - 24 years). At one site, CQESTR and IPCC estimates of SOC stocks were within 5% of each other for three rotations. At a second site, decreasing tillage intensity increased SOC stocks for winter wheat-fallow rotation for both observed and estimated values by CQESTR and IPCC. At the third site, CQESTR simulated an increase in SOC stocks with increased fertility levels, while IPCC estimates of SOC stocks did not reflect an increase. The CQESTR model successfully predicts SOM dynamics from various management practices and offers the potential for C sequestration planning for C credits or to guide crop residue removal for bio-energy production without degrading the soil resource, environmental quality, or productivity.

An international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Randerson, James T; Thornton, Peter E

2009-12-01

The need to capture important climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCMs) has resulted in efforts to include atmospheric chemistry and land and ocean biogeochemistry into the next generation of production climate models, called Earth System Models (ESMs). While many terrestrial and ocean carbon models have been coupled to GCMs, recent work has shown that such models can yield a wide range of results (Friedlingstein et al., 2006). This work suggests that a more rigorous set of global offline and partially coupled experiments, along with detailed analyses of processes and comparisons with measurements, are needed. The Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Projectmore » (C-LAMP) was designed to meet this need by providing a simulation protocol and model performance metrics based upon comparisons against best-available satellite- and ground-based measurements (Hoffman et al., 2007). Recently, a similar effort in Europe, called the International Land Model Benchmark (ILAMB) Project, was begun to assess the performance of European land surface models. These two projects will now serve as prototypes for a proposed international land-biosphere model benchmarking activity for those models participating in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Initially used for model validation for terrestrial biogeochemistry models in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM), C-LAMP incorporates a simulation protocol for both offline and partially coupled simulations using a prescribed historical trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Models are confronted with data through comparisons against AmeriFlux site measurements, MODIS satellite observations, NOAA Globalview flask records, TRANSCOM inversions, and Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) site measurements. Both sets of experiments have been performed using two different terrestrial biogeochemistry modules coupled to the CLM version 3 in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3): the CASA model of Fung, et al., and the carbon-nitrogen (CN) model of Thornton. Comparisons of the CLM3 offline results against observational datasets have been performed and are described in Randerson et al. (2009). CLM version 4 has been evaluated using C-LAMP, showing improvement in many of the metrics. Efforts are now underway to initiate a Nitrogen-Land Model Intercomparison Project (N-LAMP) to better constrain the effects of the nitrogen cycle in biosphere models. Presented will be new results from C-LAMP for CLM4, initial N-LAMP developments, and the proposed land-biosphere model benchmarking activity.« less

Changes of the potential distribution area of French Mediterranean forests under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaucherel, C.; Guiot, J.; Misson, L.

2008-11-01

This work aims at understanding future spatial and temporal distributions of tree species in the Mediterranean region of France under various climates. We focused on two different species (Pinus Halepensis and Quercus Ilex) and compared their growth under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario in order to quantify significant changes between present and future. The influence of environmental factors such as atmospheric CO2 increase and topography on the tree growth has also been quantified. We modeled species growth with the help of a process-based model (MAIDEN), previously calibrated over measured ecophysiological and dendrochronological series with a Bayesian scheme. The model was fed with the ARPEGE MeteoFrance climate model, combined with an explicit increase in CO2 atmospheric concentration. The main output of the model gives the carbon allocation in boles and thus tree production. Our results show that the MAIDEN model is correctly able to simulate pine and oak production in space and time, after detailed calibration and validation stages. Yet, these simulations, mainly based on climate, are indicative and not predictive. The comparison of simulated growth at end of 20th and 21st centuries, show a shift of the pine production optimum from about 650 to 950 m due to 2.5 K temperature increase, while no optimum has been found for oak. With the direct effect of CO2 increase taken into account, both species show a significant increase in productivity (+26 and +43% for pine and oak respectively) at the end of the 21st century. While both species have different growth mechanisms, they have a good chance to extend their spatial distribution and their elevation in the Alps during the 21st century under the IPCC-B2 climate scenario. This extension is mainly due to the CO2 fertilization effect.

Losing ground: past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate.

PubMed

Prost, Stefan; Guralnick, Robert P; Waltari, Eric; Fedorov, Vadim B; Kuzmina, Elena; Smirnov, Nickolay; van Kolfschoten, Thijs; Hofreiter, Michael; Vrieling, Klaas

2013-06-01

According to the IPCC, the global average temperature is likely to increase by 1.4-5.8 °C over the period from 1990 to 2100. In Polar regions, the magnitude of such climatic changes is even larger than in temperate and tropical biomes. This amplified response is particularly worrisome given that the so-far moderate warming is already impacting Arctic ecosystems. Predicting species responses to rapid warming in the near future can be informed by investigating past responses, as, like the rest of the planet, the Arctic experienced recurrent cycles of temperature increase and decrease (glacial-interglacial changes) in the past. In this study, we compare the response of two important prey species of the Arctic ecosystem, the collared lemming and the narrow-skulled vole, to Late Quaternary climate change. Using ancient DNA and Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM), we show that the two species, which occupy similar, but not identical ecological niches, show markedly different responses to climatic and environmental changes within broadly similar habitats. We empirically demonstrate, utilizing coalescent model-testing approaches, that collared lemming populations decreased substantially after the Last Glacial Maximum; a result consistent with distributional loss over the same period based on ENM results. Given this strong association, we projected the current niche onto future climate conditions based on IPCC 4.0 scenarios, and forecast accelerating loss of habitat along southern range boundaries with likely associated demographic consequences. Narrow-skulled vole distribution and demography, by contrast, was only moderately impacted by past climatic changes, but predicted future changes may begin to affect their current western range boundaries. Our work, founded on multiple lines of evidence suggests a future of rapidly geographically shifting Arctic small mammal prey communities, some of whom are on the edge of existence, and whose fate may have ramifications for the whole Arctic food web and ecosystem. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

Models of Solar Irradiance Variability and the Instrumental Temperature Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marcus, S. L.; Ghil, M.; Ide, K.

1998-01-01

The effects of decade-to-century (Dec-Cen) variations in total solar irradiance (TSI) on global mean surface temperature Ts during the pre-Pinatubo instrumental era (1854-1991) are studied by using two different proxies for TSI and a simplified version of the IPCC climate model.

An Overview of Synoptic and Mesoscale Factors Contributing to the Disastrous Atlanta Flood of 2009

EPA Science Inventory

If IPCC (2007) projections are accurate, the frequency and severity of extreme hydroclimate events (e.g., droughts, floods) will likely increase in response to the acceleration in the water cycle. Additionally, a majority of the population lives in urban areas, and by 2030 this ...

75 FR 35121 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-21

...--bio-energy, direct solar energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, ocean energy and wind energy--which... expert review of the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) of..._procedures.htm ). In April 2008, the IPCC approved the development of a Special Report on Renewable Energy...

75 FR 12232 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-15

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

77 FR 11533 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2010; Notice of Availability and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-27

... recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory... of Atmospheric Programs, Climate Change Division, (202) 343-9432, [email protected

78 FR 12310 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2011

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-22

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

76 FR 10026 - Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2009

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-23

... Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and reported in a format consistent with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting guidelines. The Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas...: Comments should be submitted to Mr. Leif Hockstad at: Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change...

Regional-scale controls on dissolved nitrous oxide in the Upper Mississippi River

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Bottom-up estimates of riverine nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume a constant emission factor (EF5r) that predicts N2O production from anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. This relation ignores any direct stream water biochemical charact...

Nitrous oxide emissions from intensively managed agroecosystems: The role of carbon inputs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In agroecosystems, many reports demonstrate a positive relationship between N2O emissions and N fertilizer inputs. This relationship has been incorporated into IPCC model estimates of N2O emissions and implies that inorganic N limits N2O emissions. However, evidence indicates that denitrification ac...

Tree responses to drought

Treesearch

Michael G. Ryan

2011-01-01

With global climate change, drought may become more common in the future (IPCC 2007). Several factors will promote more frequent droughts: earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures and higher variability in precipitation. For ecosystems where the water cycle is dominated by snowmelt, warmer temperatures bring earlier melt (Stewart et al. 2005) and longer, drier snow-free...

Section summary: Remote sensing

Treesearch

Belinda Arunarwati Margono

2013-01-01

Remote sensing is an important data source for monitoring the change of forest cover, in terms of both total removal of forest cover (deforestation), and change of canopy cover, structure and forest ecosystem services that result in forest degradation. In the context of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), forest degradation monitoring requires information...

Change of Impervious Surface Area Between 2001 and 2006 in the Conterminous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Land cover and land use change have long been recognized as an important driver of past and present ecosystem change, especially when considering terrestrial biodiversity loss in human-dominated regions (IPCC, 2007). Urban land cover is an important component of regional and glob...

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of the dispersion, though for a given SST pattern, ARPEGE does not necessarily reproduce the anomaly produced originally by the IPCC model which produced the SST anomaly. Many factors can contribute to this discrepancy, but the most prominent seems to be the absence of coupling between the forced atmospheric ARPEGE simulation and the underlying ocean. When the atmospheric model is forced by prescribed SST anomalies some retroactions between cyclogenesis and ocean are missing. There are however areas over the globe were models agree about the CYGP or GPI anomalies induced by global warming, such as the Indian Ocean that shows a better coherency in the coupled and forced responses. This could be an indication that interaction between ocean and atmosphere is not as strong there as in the other basins. Details of the results for all the other ocean basins will be presented. References: Chauvin F. and J.-F. Royer and M. Déqué , 2006: Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution. Climate Dynamics 27(4), 377-399. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change], Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, in: S. Solomon et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press. Royer JF, F Chauvin, 2009: Response of tropical cyclogenesis to global warming in an IPCC AR-4 scenario assessed by a modified yearly genesis parameter. "Hurricanes and Climate Change", J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (Eds.), Springer, ISBN: 978-0-387-09409-0, pp 213-234.

Final Technical Report for Project "Improving the Simulation of Arctic Clouds in CCSM3"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen J. Vavrus

2008-11-15

This project has focused on the simulation of Arctic clouds in CCSM3 and how the modeled cloud amount (and climate) can be improved substantially by altering the parameterized low cloud fraction. The new formula, dubbed 'freeezedry', alleviates the bias of excessive low clouds during polar winter by reducing the cloud amount under very dry conditions. During winter, freezedry decreases the low cloud amount over the coldest regions in high latitudes by over 50% locally and more than 30% averaged across the Arctic (Fig. 1). The cloud reduction causes an Arctic-wide drop of 15 W m{sup -2} in surface cloud radiativemore » forcing (CRF) during winter and about a 50% decrease in mean annual Arctic CRF. Consequently, wintertime surface temperatures fall by up to 4 K on land and 2-8 K over the Arctic Ocean, thus significantly reducing the model's pronounced warm bias (Fig. 1). While improving the polar climate simulation in CCSM3, freezedry has virtually no influence outside of very cold regions (Fig. 2) or during summer (Fig. 3), which are space and time domains that were not targeted. Furthermore, the simplicity of this parameterization allows it to be readily incorporated into other GCMs, many of which also suffer from excessive wintertime polar cloudiness, based on the results from the CMIP3 archive (Vavrus et al., 2008). Freezedry also affects CCSM3's sensitivity to greenhouse forcing. In a transient-CO{sub 2} experiment, the model version with freezedry warms up to 20% less in the North Polar and South Polar regions (1.5 K and 0.5 K smaller warming, respectively) (Fig. 4). Paradoxically, the muted high-latitude response occurs despite a much larger increase in cloud amount with freezedry during non-summer months (when clouds warm the surface), apparently because of the colder modern reference climate. These results of the freezedry parameterization have recently been published (Vavrus and D. Waliser, 2008: An improved parameterization for simulating Arctic cloud amount in the CCSM3 climate model. J. Climate, 21, 5673-5687.). The article also provides a novel synthesis of surface- and satellite-based Arctic cloud observations that show how much the new freezedry parameterization improves the simulated cloud amount in high latitudes (Fig. 3). Freezedry has been incorporated into the CCSM3.5 version, in which it successfully limits the excessive polar clouds, and may be used in CCSM4. Material from this work is also appearing in a synthesis article on future Arctic cloud changes (Vavrus, D. Waliser, J. Francis, and A. Schweiger, 'Simulations of 20th and 21st century Arctic cloud amount in the global climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4', accepted in Climate Dynamics) and was used in a collaborative paper on Arctic cloud-sea ice coupling (Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, S. Vavrus, and J. Francis, 2008: Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799-4810.). This research was presented at the 2007 CCSM Annual Workshop, as well as the CCSM's 2007 Atmospheric Model Working Group and Polar Working Group Meetings. The findings were also shown at the 2007 Climate Change Prediction Program's Science Team Meeting. In addition, I served as an instructor at the International Arctic Research Center's (IARC) Summer School on Arctic Climate Modeling in Fairbanks this summer, where I presented on the challenges and techniques used in simulating polar clouds. I also contributed to the development of a new Arctic System Model by attending a workshop in Colorado this summer on this fledgling project. Finally, an outreach activity for the general public has been the development of an interactive web site () that displays Arctic cloud amount in the CMIP3 climate model archive under present and future scenarios. This site allows users to make polar and global maps of a variety of climate variables to investigate the individual and ensemble-mean GCM response to greenhouse warming and the extent to which models adequately represent Arctic clouds in the modern climate. This site was used extensively in the IARC summer school projects. This work has also led to a collaboration this year during a 4-month visit I made to NCAR through its Faculty Fellowship Program. I worked with scientists Marika Holland, David Bailey, Andrew Gettleman, and Jen Kay, who are researching polar climate and/or clouds. I met with this group frequently during my visit, leading to some fruitful interactions. This work led to the discovery of a tightly coupled response of clouds and sea ice during intervals of rapid sea ice loss in greenhouse simulations, as well as advising on the evolving CCSM3.5 to CCSM4 model development. This involvement with NCAR also led to a longer-term connection, as I have recently begun a two-year stint on the SSC for CCSM.« less

Extent and status of mires, peatlands, and organic soils in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanneberger, Franziska; Barthelmes, Alexandra; Tegetmeyer, Cosima; Busse, Stephan; Joosten, Hans

2016-04-01

Key words: peatland distribution, peatland drainage, GIS, Global Peatland Database, European Mires Book The relevance of drained peatlands to climate change due to emission of huge amounts of greenhouse gases has recently been recognised e.g. by IPCC, FAO, and the European Union. Oppositely, natural and restored peatlands provide ecosystem services like enhancing biodiversity, nutrient retention, groundwater storage, flood mitigation, and cooling. To evaluate the drainage status of peatlands and organic soils and to develop specific restoration strategies comprehensive and exact geospatial data are needed. The Global Peatland Database (GPD) is hosted at Greifswald Mire Centre (http://tiny.cc/globalpeat). Currently, it provides estimates on location, extent, and drainage status of peatlands and organic soils for 268 countries and regions of the world. Due to the large diversity of definitions and terms for peatlands and organic soils, this mapping follows the broad definition of organic soils from IPCC that gives a minimum soil organic carbon threshold of 12% and considers any depth of the organic layer larger than 10 cm. GIS datasets are continuously collected, specific terms and definitions analysed and the completeness and accuracy of the datasets evaluated. Currently, the GPD contains geospatial data on peatlands and organic soils for all European countries (except Moldova). Recent information on status, distribution, and conservation of mires and peatlands in Europe is summarised in the European Mires Book. It includes descriptions from 49 countries and other geographic entities in Europe. All country chapters follow a generic structure and include also extensive descriptions of national terminology (also in national languages and script) and typologies as well as up to date area statistics and maps. They are complemented by integrative chapters presenting mire classification, mire regionality, peatland use, and mire conservation in Europe. The European Mires Book is a project of the International Mire Conservation Group (IMCG) started in 1990. The volume contains contributions of 130 mire scientists from all over Europe and is published in 2016.

Aerosol patterns and aerosol-cloud-interactions off the West African Coast based on the A-train formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Julia; Bendix, Jörg; Cermak, Jan

2013-04-01

In this study, spatial and temporal aerosol patterns off the Western African coast are characterized and related to cloud properties, based on satellite data Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in atmospheric processes and influence our environmental system in a complex way. Their identification, characterization, transport patterns as well as their interactions with clouds pose major challenges. Especially the last aspect reveals major uncertainties in terms of the Earth's radiation budget as reported in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007). Western and Southern Africa are dominated by two well-known source types of atmospheric aerosols. First, the Saharan Desert is the world's largest aeolian dust emitting source region. Second, biomass burning aerosol is commonly transported off-shore further south (Kaufman et al., 2005). Both aerosol types influence Earth's climate in different manners and can be detected by the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor onboard the EOS platforms as they propagate to the Central and Southern Atlantic. The motivation of this study was to reveal the seasonal pattern of the Saharan dust transport based on an observation period of 11 years and trying to explain the meteorological mechanisms. North African dust plumes are transported along a latitude of 19°N in July and 6°N in January. The seasonally fluctuating intensities adapt to the annual cycle of wind and precipitation regimes. A strong relationship is found between the spatial shift of the Azores High and the Saharan dust load over the middle Atlantic Ocean. Monthly Aerosol Optical Thickness products of Terra MODIS and NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Predictions) Reanalysis II data are used for this purpose. The relationship between aerosol and cloud droplet parameters is blurred by high sensitivities to aerosol size and composition (Feingold, 2003; McFiggans et al., 2006) as well as meteorological context (Ackerman et al., 2004). Satellite data from the A-train formation, including the Aqua, CloudSat and CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) are used to analyze aerosol-cloud-interactions in detail, along with re-analysis data to constrain by meteorological conditions. Information about the vertical and geographical distribution of different aerosol types and cloud parameters will lead to a process-oriented understanding of these issues on a regional scale. Ackerman, A., Kirkpatrick, M., Stevens, D., & Toon, O. (2004). The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing. Nature, 432(December), 1014-1017. doi:10.1038/nature03137.1. Feingold, G. (2003). First measurements of the Twomey indirect effect using ground-based remote sensors. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(6), 1287. doi:10.1029/2002GL016633 IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Interfovernmental Panel on climate Change. Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kaufman, Y. J., Koren, I., Remer, L. A., Tanré, D., Ginoux, P., & Fan, S. (2005). Dust transport and deposition observed from the Terra-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spacecraft over the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(D10), 1-16. doi:10.1029/2003JD004436 McFiggans, G., Artaxo, P., Baltensperger, U., Coe, H., Facchini, M. C., Feingold, G., Fuzzi, S., et al. (2006). The effect of physical and chemical aerosol properties on warm cloud droplet activation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(9), 2593-2649. doi:10.5194/acp-6-2593-2006

Climate Change, Soils, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brevik, Eric C.

2013-04-01

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global temperatures are expected to increase 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered by climate change (IPCC, 2007). Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Altered climate will, therefore, have an effect on soil processes and properties. Studies into the effects of climate change on soil processes and properties are still incomplete, but have revealed that climate change will impact soil organic matter dynamics including soil organisms and the multiple soil properties that are tied to organic matter, soil water, and soil erosion. The exact direction and magnitude of those impacts will be dependent on the amount of change in atmospheric gases, temperature, and precipitation amounts and patterns. Recent studies give reason to believe at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric carbon as temperatures rise; this is particularly true of high latitude regions with permanently frozen soils. Soil erosion by both wind and water is also likely to increase. These soil changes will lead to both direct and indirect impacts on human health. Possible indirect impacts include temperature extremes, food safety and air quality issues, increased and/or expanded disease incidences, and occupational health issues. Potential direct impacts include decreased food security and increased atmospheric dust levels. However, there are still many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the nitrogen cycle and, in turn, how the nitrogen cycle will affect carbon sequestration in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of soil water-CO2 level-temperature relationships. Knowledge of the response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus and how that affects soil organic matter dynamics is a critical need. There is also a great need for a better understanding of how soil organisms will respond to climate change because those organisms are incredibly important in a number of soil processes, including the carbon and nitrogen cycles. All of these questions are important in trying to understand human health impacts. More information on climate change, soils, and human health issues can be found in Brevik (2012). References Brevik, E.C. 2012. Climate change, soils, and human health. In: E.C. Brevik and L. Burgess (Eds). Soils and human health. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL. in press. IPCC. 2007. Summary for policymakers. pp. 1-18. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds). Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Carbon footprint of shopping (grocery) bags in China, Hong Kong and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthu, Subramanian Senthilkannan; Li, Y.; Hu, J. Y.; Mok, P. Y.

2011-01-01

Carbon footprint has become a term often used by the media in recent days. The human carbon footprint is professed to be a very serious global threat and every nation is looking at the possible options to reduce it since its consequences are alarming. A carbon footprint is a measure of the impact of human activities on earth and in particular on the environment; more specifically it relates to climate change and to the total amount of greenhouse gases produced, measured in units of carbon dioxide emitted. Effort of individuals in minimizing the carbon footprint is vital to save our planet. This article reports a study of the carbon footprint of various types of shopping bags (plastic, paper, non-woven and woven) using life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) technique in two stages. The first stage (baseline study), comprised the study of the impact of different types of shopping bags in the manufacturing phase, without considering their usage and disposal phases (cradle to gate stage). The LCIA was accomplished by the IPCC 2007 method, developed by the Inter Panel on Climate Change in SIMAPRO 7.2. The GWP (Global Warming Potential) values calculated by the IPCC 2007 method for 100 years were considered as a directive to compare the carbon footprint made by the different types of shopping bags under consideration. The next stage was the study of the carbon footprint of these bags including their usage and disposal phases (cradle to grave stage) and the results derived were compared with the results derived from the baseline study, which is the major focus of this research work. The values for usage and end-of-life phases were obtained from the survey questionnaire performed amongst different user groups of shopping bags in China, Hong Kong and India. The results show that the impact of different types of shopping bags in terms of their carbon footprint potential is very high if no usage and disposal options were provided. When the carbon footprint values from different disposal options were compared, the carbon footprint values were lower in the case where a higher percentage of reuse is preferred to recycling and disposing to landfill. The results indicate that a higher percentage of reuse could significantly scale down the carbon footprint. Once the shopping bags reached the point where they can no longer be reused, they must be forwarded to recycling options, rather than being disposed to landfill. At this juncture, consumer's perceptions and behaviours in connection with the respective government's policies in promoting & facilitating recycling systems could be critical in reducing the carbon footprint of various shopping bags.

From California dreaming to California data: Challenging historic models for landfill CH4 emissions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Improved quantification of diverse CH4 sources at the urban scale is needed to guide local greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the Anthropocene. Herein, we focus on landfill CH4 emissions in California, challenging the current IPCC methodology which focuses on a climate dependency for land...

A New IPCC Tier 4 Site-Specific Model for Landfill Methane Emissions Inclusive of Seasonal Methane Oxidation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This project was initiated in the U.S. by the California Energy Commission (CEC) in cooperation with the California Integrated Waste Management Board and the California Air Resources Board to develop improved methods for landfill methane emissions for the California greenhouse gas inventory. This 3-...

Climate change and the biosphere

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

Revised methane emissions factors and spatially distributed annual carbon fluxes for global livestock

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Livestock play an important role in carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Recent research suggests that existing bottom-up inventories of livestock methane emissions in the U.S., such as those made using 2006 IPCC Tier 1 livestock emissions factors, are too low. Thi...

Chapter 3: Climate change and the relevance of historical forest conditions

Treesearch

H.D. Safford; M. North; M.D. Meyer

2012-01-01

Increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are modifying the Earth's climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea...

Communicating Environmental Risks: Clarifying the Severity Effect in Interpretations of Verbal Probability Expressions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Adam J. L.; Corner, Adam

2011-01-01

Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these…

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

Growth responses of Populus tremuloides clones to interacting elevated carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone

Treesearch

J. G. Isebrands; E. P. McDonald; E. Kruger; G. Hendrey; K. Percy; K. Pregitzer; J. Sober; D. F. Karnosky

2001-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and tropospheric ozone (O3) are increasing concomitantly globally. Little is known about the effect of these interacting gases on growth, survival, and productivity of forest ecosystems. In this study we assess...

Sequestration of carbon in harvested wood products for the United States

Treesearch

Kenneth E. Skog

2008-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidelines for countries to report greenhouse gas removals by sinks and emissions from sources. These guidelines allow use of several accounting approaches when reporting the contribution of harvested wood products (HWP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Using extensions of...

Carbon footprint of automotive ignition coil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Huey-Ling; Chen, Chih-Ming; Sun, Chin-Huang; Lin, Hung-Di

2015-07-01

In recent years, environmental issues, such as climate change and global warming due to the excessive development of industry, have attracted increasing attention of citizens worldwide. It is known that CO2 accounts for the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Therefore, how to reduce CO2 emissions during the life cycle of a product to lessen its impact on environment is an important topic in the industrial society. Furthermore, it is also of great significance to cut down the required energy so as to lower its production costs during the manufacturing process nowadays. This study presents the carbon footprint of an automotive ignition coil and its partial materials are defined to explore their carbon emissions and environmental impact. The model IPCC GWP100a calculates potential global greenhouse effect by converting them into CO2 equivalents. In this way, the overall carbon footprint of an ignition coil can be explored. By using IPCC GWP100a, the results display that the shell has the most carbon emissions. The results can help the industry reduce the carbon emissions of an ignition coil product.

Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Blanco, Gabriela S; Stock, Charles A; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2012-01-01

Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, Jenny, H.-T.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

The FAOSTAT Emissions database for AFOLU: Updates for 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tubiello, F.

2017-12-01

The FAO computes GHG emissions for agriculture and land use since 2012. Data are disseminate in FAOSTAT, with country detail and global coverage, based on IPCC 2006 Tier 1 and underlying FAOSTAT activity data, complemented by use of geospatial maps for specific land use/land cover dynamics. Methods for capacity development with countries based on teh FAOSTAT approach are discussed in the context of suporting the enhanced transprency framework of teh Paris agreement. New updates to 2015 are discussed, including findings on peat emissions and initial projections of land use emissions to 2030 for south east asia. It is found that, by considering the time dynamics of land use change in Indonesia relative to palm oil cultivation, result in a doubling of the earlier estimates of emissions from drained organic soils that had informed the IPCC AR5. The 2030 projections show that, within a scenario approach, teh bulk of AFOLU emissoins increase in south east asia is also linked primarily to palm oil dynamics, with a diminishing impact towards 2030 due to markeyt dynamics.

Climate change studies and the human sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

Projections of wind-waves in South China Sea for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, Aboobacker; Dykyi, Pavlo; Zheleznyak, Mark; Tkalich, Pavel

2013-04-01

IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs are not having a wind-wave variable due to a poor grid resolution; therefore, dynamical downscaling of wind-waves to the regional scale is advisable using well established models, such as Wave Watch III (WWIII) and SWAN. Rectilinear-coordinates WWIII model is adapted for the far field comprising the part of Pacific and Indian Oceans centered at the South China Sea and Sunda Shelf (90 °E-130 °E, 10 °S - 26.83 °N) with a resolution of 10' (about 18 km). Near-field unstructured-mesh SWAN model covers Sunda Shelf and centered on Singapore Strait, while reading lateral boundary values from WWIII model. The unstructured grid has the coarsest resolution in the South China Sea (6 to 10 km), medium resolution in the Malacca Strait (1 to 2 km), and the finest resolution in the Singapore Strait (400 m) and along the Singapore coastline (up to 100 m). Following IPCC methodology, the model chain is validated climatologically for the past period 1961-1990 against Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS) data; additionally, the models are validated using recent high-resolution satellite data. The calibrated model chain is used to project waves to 21st century using WRF-downscaled wind speed output of CCSM GCM run for A1FI climate change scenario. To comply with IPCC methodology the entire modeling period is split into three 30-years periods for which statistical parameters are computed individually. Time series of significant wave height at key points near Singapore and on ship sea routes in the SCS are statistically analysed to get probability distribution functions (PDFs) of extreme values. Climatological maps of mean and maximum significant wave height (SWH) values, and mean wave period are built for Singapore region for each 30-yrs period. Linear trends of mean SWH values for northeast (NE) and southwest (SW) monsoons have been derived. The maximum values of predicted 100 year return period (YRP) SWH are obtained for the 1st 30-yrs period (2011-2040). In the deep eastern part of the Singapore, 100yrp SWH are 2.4 - 2.8 m, whereas those at the shallow nearshore areas are 1.7-2.3 m. On the ship routes at Sunda Shelf the 100 YRP SWHs are 1.1 - 3.2 m, and those at the SCS routes are 3.6 - 10.4 m. The biggest changes in future against hindcasted SWH is in first 30-yrs, where extreme 100 YRP SWH will grow up in the range from 36%-120% at points near Singapore and to 39%-108% at ship sea routes.

The use of Meteonorm weather generator for climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remund, J.; Müller, S. C.; Schilter, C.; Rihm, B.

2010-09-01

The global climatological database Meteonorm (www.meteonorm.com) is widely used as meteorological input for simulation of solar applications and buildings. It's a combination of a climate database, a spatial interpolation tool and a stochastic weather generator. Like this typical years with hourly or minute time resolution can be calculated for any site. The input of Meteonorm for global radiation is the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA, http://proto-geba.ethz.ch). All other meteorological parameters are taken from databases of WMO and NCDC (periods 1961-90 and 1996-2005). The stochastic generation of global radiation is based on a Markov chain model for daily values and an autoregressive model for hourly and minute values (Aguiar and Collares-Pereira, 1988 and 1992). The generation of temperature is based on global radiation and measured distribution of daily temperature values of approx. 5000 sites. Meteonorm generates also additional parameters like precipitation, wind speed or radiation parameters like diffuse and direct normal irradiance. Meteonorm can also be used for climate change studies. Instead of climate values, the results of IPCC AR4 results are used as input. From all 18 public models an average has been made at a resolution of 1°. The anomalies of the parameters temperature, precipitation and global radiation and the three scenarios B1, A1B and A2 have been included. With the combination of Meteonorm's current database 1961-90, the interpolation algorithms and the stochastic generation typical years can be calculated for any site, for different scenarios and for any period between 2010 and 2200. From the analysis of variations of year to year and month to month variations of temperature, precipitation and global radiation of the past ten years as well of climate model forecasts (from project prudence, http://prudence.dmi.dk) a simple autoregressive model has been formed which is used to generate realistic monthly time series of future periods. Meteonorm can therefore be used as a relatively simple method to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution instead of using complicated and time consuming downscaling methods based on regional climate models. The combination of Meteonorm, gridded historical (based on work of Luterbach et al.) and IPCC results has been used for studies of vegetation simulation between 1660 and 2600 (publication of first version based on IS92a scenario and limited time period 1950 - 2100: http://www.pbl.nl/images/H5_Part2_van%20CCE_opmaak%28def%29_tcm61-46625.pdf). It's also applicable for other adaptation studies for e.g. road surfaces or building simulation. In Meteonorm 6.1 one scenario (IS92a) and one climate model has been included (Hadley CM3). In the new Meteonorm 7 (coming spring 2011) the model averages of the three above mentioned scenarios of the IPCC AR4 will be included.

The ‘Hothaps’ programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies

PubMed Central

Kjellstrom, Tord; Gabrysch, Sabine; Lemke, Bruno; Dear, Keith

2009-01-01

The ‘high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression’ programme (Hothaps) is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overlooked. It will also identify and evaluate preventive interventions in different social and economic settings. Hothaps includes studies in any part of the world where hourly heat exposure exceeds physiological stress limits that may affect workers. This usually happens at temperatures above 25°C, depending on humidity, wind movement and heat radiation. Working people in low and middle-income tropical countries are particularly vulnerable, because many of them are involved in heavy physical work, either outdoors in strong sunlight or indoors without effective cooling. If high work intensity is maintained in workplaces with high heat exposure, serious health effects can occur, including heat stroke and death. Depending on the type of occupation, the required work intensity, and the level of heat stress, working people have to slow down their work in order to reduce internal body heat production and the risk of heat stroke. Thus, unless preventive interventions are used to reduce the heat stress on workers, their individual health and productivity will be affected and economic output per work hour will be reduced. Heat also influences other daily physical activities, unrelated to work, in all age groups. Poorer people without access to household or workplace cooling devices are most likely to be affected. The Hothaps programme includes a pilot study, heat monitoring of selected workplaces, qualitative studies of perceived heat impacts and preventative interventions, quantitative studies of impacts on health and productivity, and assessments of local impacts of climate change taking into account different applications of preventative interventions. Fundraising for the global programme is in progress and has enabled local field studies to start in 2009. Local funding support is also of great value and is being sought by several interested scientific partners. The Hothaps team welcomes independent use of the study protocols, but would be grateful for information about any planned, ongoing or completed studies of this type. Coordinated implementation of the protocols in multi-centre studies is also welcome. Eventually, the results of the Hothaps field studies will be used in global assessments of climate change-induced heat exposure increase in workplaces and its impacts on occupational health and productivity. These results will also be of value for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013. PMID:20052425

The 'Hothaps' programme for assessing climate change impacts on occupational health and productivity: an invitation to carry out field studies.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Gabrysch, Sabine; Lemke, Bruno; Dear, Keith

2009-11-11

The 'high occupational temperature health and productivity suppression' programme (Hothaps) is a multi-centre health research and prevention programme aimed at quantifying the extent to which working people are affected by, or adapt to, heat exposure while working, and how global heating during climate change may increase such effects. The programme will produce essential new evidence for local, national and global assessment of negative impacts of climate change that have largely been overlooked. It will also identify and evaluate preventive interventions in different social and economic settings.Hothaps includes studies in any part of the world where hourly heat exposure exceeds physiological stress limits that may affect workers. This usually happens at temperatures above 25 degrees C, depending on humidity, wind movement and heat radiation. Working people in low and middle-income tropical countries are particularly vulnerable, because many of them are involved in heavy physical work, either outdoors in strong sunlight or indoors without effective cooling. If high work intensity is maintained in workplaces with high heat exposure, serious health effects can occur, including heat stroke and death.Depending on the type of occupation, the required work intensity, and the level of heat stress, working people have to slow down their work in order to reduce internal body heat production and the risk of heat stroke. Thus, unless preventive interventions are used to reduce the heat stress on workers, their individual health and productivity will be affected and economic output per work hour will be reduced. Heat also influences other daily physical activities, unrelated to work, in all age groups. Poorer people without access to household or workplace cooling devices are most likely to be affected.The Hothaps programme includes a pilot study, heat monitoring of selected workplaces, qualitative studies of perceived heat impacts and preventative interventions, quantitative studies of impacts on health and productivity, and assessments of local impacts of climate change taking into account different applications of preventative interventions.Fundraising for the global programme is in progress and has enabled local field studies to start in 2009. Local funding support is also of great value and is being sought by several interested scientific partners. The Hothaps team welcomes independent use of the study protocols, but would be grateful for information about any planned, ongoing or completed studies of this type. Coordinated implementation of the protocols in multi-centre studies is also welcome. Eventually, the results of the Hothaps field studies will be used in global assessments of climate change-induced heat exposure increase in workplaces and its impacts on occupational health and productivity. These results will also be of value for the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013.

Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kharaka, Yousif K.; Cole, David R.; Thordsen, James J.; Gans, Kathleen D.; Thomas, Randal B.

2013-01-01

Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

Comparison of Global Cloud Fraction and TOA Radiation Budgets between the NASA GISS AR5 GCM Simulations and CERES-MODIS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R. E.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.; Del Genio, A. D.; Minnis, P.; Doelling, D.; Loeb, N. G.

2011-12-01

To better advise policymakers, it is necessary for climate models to provide credible predictions of future climates. Meeting this goal requires climate models to successfully simulate the present and past climates. The past, current and future Earth climate has been simulated by the NASA GISS ModelE climate model and has been summarized by the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, AR4, 2007). New simulations from the updated AR5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM have been released to the public community and will be included in the IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, however, they have yet to be extensively validated against observations. To evaluate the GISS AR5 simulated global clouds and TOA radiation budgets, we have collected and processed the NASA CERES and MODIS observations during the period 2000-2005. In detail, the 1ox1o resolution monthly averaged SYN1 product has been used with combined observations from both Terra and Aqua satellites, and degraded to a 2ox2.5o grid box to match the GCM spatial resolution. These observations are temporally interpolated and fit to data from geostationary satellites to provide time continuity. The GISS AR5 products were downloaded from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) for the IPCC-AR5. Preliminary comparisons between GISS AR5 simulations and CERES-MODIS observations have shown that although their annual and seasonal mean CFs agree within a few percent, there are significant differences in several climatic regions. For example, the modeled CFs have positive biases in the Arctic, Antarctic, Tropics, and Sahara Desert, but negative biases over the southern middle latitudes (30-65 oS). The OLR, albedo and NET radiation comparisons are similar to the CF comparison.

Understanding the origins of uncertainty in landscape-scale variations of emissions of nitrous oxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, Alice; Haskard, Kathy; Webster, Colin; Truan, Imogen; Goulding, Keith

2014-05-01

Nitrous oxide is a potent greenhouse gas which is over 300 times more radiatively effective than carbon dioxide. In the UK, the agricultural sector is estimated to be responsible for over 80% of nitrous oxide emissions, with these emissions resulting from livestock and farmers adding nitrogen fertilizer to soils. For the purposes of reporting emissions to the IPCC, the estimates are calculated using simple models whereby readily-available national or international statistics are combined with IPCC default emission factors. The IPCC emission factor for direct emissions of nitrous oxide from soils has a very large uncertainty. This is primarily because the variability of nitrous oxide emissions in space is large and this results in uncertainty that may be regarded as sample noise. To both reduce uncertainty through improved modelling, and to communicate an understanding of this uncertainty, we must understand the origins of the variation. We analysed data on nitrous oxide emission rate and some other soil properties collected from a 7.5-km transect across contrasting land uses and parent materials in eastern England. We investigated the scale-dependence and spatial uniformity of the correlations between soil properties and emission rates from farm to landscape scale using wavelet analysis. The analysis revealed a complex pattern of scale-dependence. Emission rates were strongly correlated with a process-specific function of the water-filled pore space at the coarsest scale and nitrate at intermediate and coarsest scales. We also found significant correlations between pH and emission rates at the intermediate scales. The wavelet analysis showed that these correlations were not spatially uniform and that at certain scales changes in parent material coincided with significant changes in correlation. Our results indicate that, at the landscape scale, nitrate content and water-filled pore space are key soil properties for predicting nitrous oxide emissions and should therefore be incorporated into process models and emission factors for inventory calculations.

Towards Regional, Error-Bounded Landscape Carbon Storage Estimates for Data-Deficient Areas of the World

PubMed Central

Willcock, Simon; Phillips, Oliver L.; Platts, Philip J.; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Lovett, Jon C.; Ahrends, Antje; Bayliss, Julian; Doggart, Nike; Doody, Kathryn; Fanning, Eibleis; Green, Jonathan; Hall, Jaclyn; Howell, Kim L.; Marchant, Rob; Marshall, Andrew R.; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Munishi, Pantaleon K. T.; Owen, Nisha; Swetnam, Ruth D.; Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J.; Lewis, Simon L.

2012-01-01

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as ‘lowland tropical forest’ are often used, termed ‘Tier 1 type’ analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC ‘Tier 2’ reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92–6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ∼50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment. PMID:23024764

Development of methane conversion factor models for Zebu beef cattle fed low-quality crop residues and by-products in tropical regions.

PubMed

Kaewpila, Chatchai; Sommart, Kritapon

2016-10-01

The enteric methane conversion factor ( Y m ) is an important country-specific value for the provision of precise enteric methane emissions inventory reports. The objectives of this meta-analysis were to develop and evaluate the empirical Y m models for the national level and the farm level for tropical developing countries according to the IPCC's categorization. We used datasets derived from 18 in vivo feeding experiments from 1999 to 2015 of Zebu beef cattle breeds fed low-quality crop residues and by-products. We found that the observed Y m value was 8.2% gross energy (GE) intake (~120 g methane emission head -1  day -1 ) and ranged from 4.8% to 13.7% GE intake. The IPCC default model (tier 2, Y m  = 6.5% ± 1.0% GE intake) underestimated the Y m values by up to 26.1% compared with its refinement of 8.4% ± 0.4% GE intake for the national-level estimate. Both the IPCC default model and the refined model performed worse in predicting Y m trends at the farm level (root mean square prediction error [MSPE] = 15.1%-23.1%, concordance correlation coefficient [CCC] = 0.16-0.18, R 2  = .32). Seven of the extant Y m models based on a linear regression approach also showed inaccurately estimated Y m values (root MSPE = 16.2%-36.0%, CCC = 0.02-0.27, R 2  < .37). However, one of the developed models, which related to the complexity of the energy use efficiencies of the diet consumed to Y m , showed adequate accuracy at the farm level (root MSPE = 9.1%, CCC = 0.75, R 2  = .67). Our results thus suggest a new Y m model and future challenges for estimating Zebu beef cattle production in tropical developing countries.

Investigation of the climate change within Moscow metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varentsov, Mikhail; Trusilova, Kristina; Konstantinov, Pavel; Samsonov, Timofey

2014-05-01

As the urbanization continues worldwide more than half of the Earth's population live in the cities (U.N., 2010). Therefore the vulnerability of the urban environment - the living space for millions of people - to the climate change has to be investigated. It is well known that urban features strongly influence the atmospheric boundary layer and determine the microclimatic features of the local environment, such as urban heat island (UHI). Available temperature observations in cities are, however, influenced by the natural climate variations, human-induced climate warming (IPCC, 2007) and in the same time by the growth and structural modification of the urban areas. The relationship between these three factors and their roles in climate changes in the cities are very important for the climatic forecast and requires better understanding. In this study, we made analysis of the air temperature change and urban heat island evolution within Moscow urban area during decades 1970-2010, while this urban area had undergone intensive growth and building modification allowing the population of Moscow to increase from 7 to 12 million people. Analysis was based on the data from several meteorological stations in Moscow region and Moscow city, including meteorological observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University. Differences in climate change between urban and rural stations, changes of the power and shape of urban heat island and their relationships with changes of building height and density were investigated. Collected data and obtained results are currently to be used for the validation of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with the purpose to use this model for further more detailed climate research and forecasts for Moscow metropolitan area. References: 1. U.N. (2010), World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision.Rep., 1-47 pp, United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division., New York. 2. IPCC (2007), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Global estimations of the inventory and mitigation potential of methane emissions from rice cultivation conducted using the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiaoyuan; Akiyama, Hiroko; Yagi, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

2009-06-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories and methane emission (CH4) from rice paddies has been an important component of these guidelines. While there have been many estimates of global CH4 emissions from rice fields, none of them have been obtained using the IPCC guidelines. Therefore, we used the Tier 1 method described in the 2006 IPCC guidelines to estimate the global CH4 emissions from rice fields. To accomplish this, we used country-specific statistical data regarding rice harvest areas and expert estimates of relevant agricultural activities. The estimated global emission for 2000 was 25.6 Tg a-1, which is at the lower end of earlier estimates and close to the total emission summarized by individual national communications. Monte Carlo simulation revealed a 95% uncertainty range of 14.8-41.7 Tg a-1; however, the estimation uncertainty was found to depend on the reliability of the information available regarding the amount of organic amendments and the area of rice fields that were under continuous flooding. We estimated that if all of the continuously flooded rice fields were drained at least once during the growing season, the CH4 emissions would be reduced by 4.1 Tg a-1. Furthermore, we estimated that applying rice straw off season wherever and whenever possible would result in a further reduction in emissions of 4.1 Tg a-1 globally. Finally, if both of these mitigation options were adopted, the global CH4 emission from rice paddies could be reduced by 7.6 Tg a-1. Although draining continuously flooded rice fields may lead to an increase in nitrous oxide (N2O) emission, the global warming potential resulting from this increase is negligible when compared to the reduction in global warming potential that would result from the CH4 reduction associated with draining the fields.

Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die-back, warming subarctic peat rich wetlands (methane), thawing permafrost (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), and Arctic subsea floor methane.

Forest carbon in North America: annual storage and emissions from British Columbia’s harvest, 1965–2065

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The default international accounting rules estimate the carbon emissions from forest products by assuming all harvest is immediately emitted to the atmosphere. This makes it difficult to assess the greenhouse gas (GHG) consequences of different forest management or manufacturing activities that maintain the storage of carbon. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) addresses this issue by allowing other accounting methods. The objective of this paper is to provide a new model for estimating annual stock changes of carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). Results The model, British Columbia Harvested Wood Products version 1 (BC-HWPv1), estimates carbon stocks and fluxes for wood harvested in BC from 1965 to 2065, based on new parameters on local manufacturing, updated and new information for North America on consumption and disposal of wood and paper products, and updated parameters on methane management at landfills in the USA. Based on model results, reporting on emissions as they occur would substantially lower BC’s greenhouse gas inventory in 2010 from 48 Mt CO2 to 26 Mt CO2 because of the long-term forest carbon storage in-use and in the non-degradable material in landfills. In addition, if offset projects created under BC’s protocol reported 100 year cumulative emissions using the BC-HWPv1 the emissions would be lower by about 11%. Conclusions This research showed that the IPCC default methods overestimate the emissions North America wood products. Future IPCC GHG accounting methods could include a lower emissions factor (e.g. 0.52) multiplied by the annual harvest, rather than the current multiplier of 1.0. The simulations demonstrated that the primary opportunities for climate change mitigation are in shifting from burning mill waste to using the wood for longer-lived products. PMID:22828161

Towards regional, error-bounded landscape carbon storage estimates for data-deficient areas of the world.

PubMed

Willcock, Simon; Phillips, Oliver L; Platts, Philip J; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D; Lovett, Jon C; Ahrends, Antje; Bayliss, Julian; Doggart, Nike; Doody, Kathryn; Fanning, Eibleis; Green, Jonathan; Hall, Jaclyn; Howell, Kim L; Marchant, Rob; Marshall, Andrew R; Mbilinyi, Boniface; Munishi, Pantaleon K T; Owen, Nisha; Swetnam, Ruth D; Topp-Jorgensen, Elmer J; Lewis, Simon L

2012-01-01

Monitoring landscape carbon storage is critical for supporting and validating climate change mitigation policies. These may be aimed at reducing deforestation and degradation, or increasing terrestrial carbon storage at local, regional and global levels. However, due to data-deficiencies, default global carbon storage values for given land cover types such as 'lowland tropical forest' are often used, termed 'Tier 1 type' analyses by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Such estimates may be erroneous when used at regional scales. Furthermore uncertainty assessments are rarely provided leading to estimates of land cover change carbon fluxes of unknown precision which may undermine efforts to properly evaluate land cover policies aimed at altering land cover dynamics. Here, we present a repeatable method to estimate carbon storage values and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all five IPCC carbon pools (aboveground live carbon, litter, coarse woody debris, belowground live carbon and soil carbon) for data-deficient regions, using a combination of existing inventory data and systematic literature searches, weighted to ensure the final values are regionally specific. The method meets the IPCC 'Tier 2' reporting standard. We use this method to estimate carbon storage over an area of33.9 million hectares of eastern Tanzania, reporting values for 30 land cover types. We estimate that this area stored 6.33 (5.92-6.74) Pg C in the year 2000. Carbon storage estimates for the same study area extracted from five published Africa-wide or global studies show a mean carbon storage value of ∼50% of that reported using our regional values, with four of the five studies reporting lower carbon storage values. This suggests that carbon storage may have been underestimated for this region of Africa. Our study demonstrates the importance of obtaining regionally appropriate carbon storage estimates, and shows how such values can be produced for a relatively low investment.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2014-12-01

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

Challenges and opportunities for animal conservation from renewable energy development

Treesearch

T.A. Katzner; J.A. Johnson; D.M. Evans; T.W.J. Garner; M.E. Gompper; R. Altwegg; T.A. Branch; I.J. Gordon; N. Pettorelli

2013-01-01

Global climate change is among the greatest threats confronting both human and natural systems (IPCC, 2007). A substantial component of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is from energy production, generated via the burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, natural gas and refined petroleum. Given that reduction in global energy consumption is unlikely over the next...

Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward; Curtis H. Flather; Erin Uloth; Hugh D. Safford; David A. Cleaves

2009-01-01

The spatial and temporal scope of environmental change anticipated during the next century as a result of climate change presents unprecedented challenges for fish and wildlife management. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007) suggested impacts from climate change on natural systems will be more grave than earlier...

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Stock Changes in Agro-ecosystems using CQESTR, DayCent, and IPCC Tier 1 Methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Models are often used to quantify how land use change and management impact soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks because it is often not feasible to use direct measuring methods. Because models are simplifications of reality, it is essential to compare model outputs with measured values to evaluate mode...

Interacting effects of multiple stresses on growth and physiological processes in northern forest trees

Treesearch

Judson G. Isebrands; Richard E. Dickson; Joanne Rebbeck; David F. Karnosky

2000-01-01

Global climate chagnge is a complex and controversial subject, both technically and politically. Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate" and that "further accumulation of greenhouse gases will commit the earth...

Report from the International Permafrost Association: state of permafrost in the first decade of the 21st century

Treesearch

J. Brown; V.E. Romanovsky

2008-01-01

Recent assessments have considered present-day and future responses of permafrost terrain to climate change; included are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and United Nations Environment Programme assessments (Romanovsky et al., 2007), the on-going National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) annual...

Hopes and Prospects for the Sustainability Cross-Curriculum Priority: Provocations from a State-Wide Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Allen; Dyment, Janet E.

2016-01-01

This article draws on research data from a state-wide case study, intertwined with three key moments that occurred in late 2014, to critically engage with the hopes and prospects of the Sustainability Cross-Curriculum Priority (CCP) in Australian schools. These key moments--the "IPCC 5th Assessment Synthesis Report" (Intergovernmental…

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Treesearch

G. M. Blate; L. A. Joyce; J. S. Littell; S. G. McNulty; C. I. Millar; S. C. Moser; R. P. Neilson; K. O’Halloran; D. L. Peterson

2009-01-01

Climate change is already affecting forests and other ecosystems, and additional, potentially more severe impacts are expected (IPCC, 2007; CCSP, 2008a, 2008b). As a result, forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their goals. Adaptations of forest ecosystems, which in this context refer to adjustments...

Bias in IPCC Methodologies for Assessment of N2O emissions from Crop Residue

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen use efficiencies are difficult to measure and reported recoveries from fertilizer N by crops average =50%. Worldwide studies (20+) conducted with precise 15N techniques that trace the fate of N found that an average of 66% of the fertilizer was recovered in crops and soils. In other words,...

Landscape fire and wildlife habitat [chapter 9

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Tzeidle N. Wasserman; Kevin McGarigal

2011-01-01

Global climate is expected to change rapidly over the next century (Thompson et al. 1998; Houghton et al. 2001; IPCC 2008). This will affect forest ecosystems both directly by altering biophysical conditions (Neilson 1995; Neilson and Drapek 1998; Bachelet et al. 2001) and indirectly through changing disturbance regimes (Baker 1995; McKenzie et al. 1996; Keane et al....

Disturbance and Climate Change in the Interior West (Chapter 6)

Treesearch

Paulette L. Ford; Jeanne K. Chambers; Sharon J. Coe; Burton C. Pendleton

2012-01-01

Within the continental United States, average annual temperature increased during the Twentieth Century by approximately 0.65 ºC. The most extreme warming occurred throughout the northern and western United States (IPCC 2007a; Williams and others 2010). Disturbances such as fire, drought, grazing, urbanization, and energy development are predicted to have a heightened...

The Espere Project - Environmental Science Published For Everybody Round The Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uherek, E.; Gauss, M.

Within the ESPERE project representatives of the scientific community, mediators to the public, educationists, teachers and students are planning to build up a user-friendly informative Network on climate change and related environmental processes. The aim is to make the address www.espere.net become the multilingual gate to the current knowledge of scientists, presented in an easily understandable way for the public with a strong focus on schools. A group of about 100 supporters from numerous countries have already started to create a multilingual web atlas on the climate system, written in an understandable way for the public and based on the results of the recent IPCC-TAR (2001). The structure of this atlas is based on thematic fields such as ENSO/NAO, solar cycle, paleoclimate, etc. The contents will be reviewed as is usual for scientific journals in order to provide a reliable source of information. This effort is assisted by educationists and teachers in order to compile topics from these fields for the use in classes and to complement the online sources with appropriate teaching material. The dualism of the Internet as a medium of information (e.g. scientific journals) and a medium of communication (e.g. chat rooms) enables, unlike any other former tool, the direct interaction of all groups involved in the field of education. ESPERE is going to use the opportunity of direct feedback in order to evaluate and improve scientific publications already under development. In this way an optimisation of the contents with respect to demands of the user and comprehensibility can be achieved. In partic- ular, this will help to bridge the gap between science and the public and to pave the way leading to a knowledge society. In collaboration with partner schools in Germany, ESPERE is already providing teaching materials, which are being translated into other languages. The current experiences show that this effort could work on an international scale and contribute significantly to a raise in public awareness. The work of ESPERE presented on our website has so far been built up on a voluntary basis only, but fur- ther progress will strongly depend on the readiness of researchers to make available their knowledge for a wider public. The ESPERE community thus invites scientists as well as representatives of the educational system in the respective countries to join this effort.

Sensitivity of sediment contamination in the Elbe Estuary to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleisinger, Carmen; Haase, Holger; Hentschke, Uwe; Schubert, Birgit

2015-04-01

As a result of the projected climate-induced changes of temperature and precipitation (IPCC, 2007), an increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods, storm surges or of extended periods of low river discharge is to be expected. An increase of flood events would result in an additional input of contaminated sediments from the inland. Contaminated particles will be transported along the rivers to the estuaries and consequently, a deterioration of the quality of estuarine particulate matter may occur. In addition, a sea level rise is predicted to occur along with global warming. In case of sea level rise or more frequent low river discharge situations, the upstream transport of slightly contaminated sediments of marine origin may be intensified, and cause decreasing concentrations of contaminants in particulate matter. The contamination of particulate matter plays an important role for the ecological quality of water bodies and has accordingly to be taken into account in the sediment management of navigable waters. This study focuses on the assessment of potential climate-induced and other man-made changes of particle-bound contaminant concentrations in the estuary of the river Elbe and the resulting challenges for sediment management in this navigable waterway. The estimation of climate-induced changes of contaminant concentrations in estuarine particulate matter was based on results of projections on the fluvial particulate matter input into the Elbe estuary in the near (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) and on assumed extreme changes of such inputs. A mixing model using the concentrations of selected contaminants as indicators for marine and fluvial particulate matter was applied. Distinct changes of contaminant concentrations were found only for the far future and with the assumed extreme particulate matter inputs in the inner Elbe estuary. The worst-case scenario indicated that concentrations of some organochlorine contaminants in the far future exceed the national assessment criteria for the handling of dredged material within coastal waterways more distinct than today. Therefore, adaptations of practices for the management of dredged material to higher particulate matter contaminations should be considered there in the medium or long-term perspective. On the one hand, e.g. the practices of depositing dredged- material within the water system might be adapted (BfG 2014). On the other hand, the implementation of remediation measures like those planned under the Water Framework Directive could mitigate the climate-induced increase of contaminants. However, before the planning of adaption measures begins, the respectively prevailing contamination status should be verified, as climate-induced changes of contaminant concentrations might be superimposed by direct anthropogenic activities, e.g. remediation measures to reduce contamination or construction works in waterways. Literature: BfG - Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2014) Sedimentmanagement Tideelbe - Strategien und Potenziale - Systemstudie II. Ökologische Auswirkungen der Unterbringung von Feinmaterial. Band 1, Endbericht. Im Auftrag des Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamtes Hamburg. Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, Koblenz, BfG-Bericht 1763 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Assessing Climate Change Risks Using a Multi-Model Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Scholze, M.; Prentice, C.

2007-12-01

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from the IPCC AR4 data archive using 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply or shifts in vegetation cover. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios. Instead, we consider the distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped according to the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degree C (including committed climate change simulations), 2-3 degree C, and >3 degree C. Here, we are contrasting two different methods for calculating the risks: first we use an equal weighting approach giving every model within one of the three sets the same weight, and second, we weight the models according to their ability to model ENSO. The differences are underpinning the need for the development of more robust performance metrics for global climate models.

Run Environment and Data Management for Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widmann, H.; Lautenschlager, M.; Fast, I.; Legutke, S.

2009-04-01

The Integrating Model and Data Infrastructure (IMDI) developed and maintained by the Model and Data Group (M&D) comprises the Standard Compile Environment (SCE) and the Standard Run Environment (SRE). The IMDI software has a modular design, which allows to combine and couple a suite of model components and as well to execute the tasks independently and on various platforms. Furthermore the modular structure enables the extension to new model combinations and new platforms. The SRE presented here enables the configuration and performance of earth system model experiments from model integration up to storage and visualization of data. We focus on recently implemented tasks such as synchronous data base filling, graphical monitoring and automatic generation of meta data in XML forms during run time. As well we address the capability to run experiments in heterogeneous IT environments with different computing systems for model integration, data processing and storage. These features are demonstrated for model configurations and on platforms used in current or upcoming projects, e.g. MILLENNIUM or IPCC AR5.

Vulnerability of riparian obligate species to the interactive effect of fire, climate and hydrological change

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Rachel Loehman; Lisa Holsinger; Deborah Finch

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to have multiple direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems in the interior western U.S. (Christensen et al., 2007; IPCC 2013). Global climate predictions for the Southwest include higher temperatures, more variable rainfall, and more drought periods, which will likely exacerbate the ongoing issues relating to wildfire and water allocation in...

Effects of climate change and wildfire on soil loss in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion

Treesearch

S. E. Litschert; D. M. Theobald; T. C. Brown

2014-01-01

Forests in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion surround the headwaters of several major rivers in the western and central US. Future climatic changes will increase the incidence of wildfire in those forests, and will likely lead to changes in downstream water quality, including sediment loads.We estimated soil loss under the historic climate and two IPCC climate change...

Beyond naturalness: Adapting wilderness stewardship to an era of rapid global change

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2012-01-01

Climate change and its effects are writ large across wilderness landscapes. They always have been and always will be (see Figure 1). But contemporary change is different. For the first time, the pace and direction of climate change appear to be driven significantly by human activities (IPCC 2007), and this change is playing out across landscapes already affected by...

Projecting county-level populations under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Stanley J. Zarnoch; H. Ken Cordell; Carter J. Betz

2010-01-01

County-level population projections from 2010 to 2060 are developed under three national population growth scenarios for reporting in the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. These population growth scenarios are tied to global futures scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a program within the United Nations...

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

77 FR 52293 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List Mimulus...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-29

... review. Climate Change Information Provided in the Petition The petitioner states that the western United States will likely suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change, which will affect montane... conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007, p. 52) and RMNP (2007a, p. 6...

76 FR 78601 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition To List the Western...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-19

... climate change and provides several references about the effects of climate change in general to support this claim. The petition explains that human-induced climate change is causing global increases of...; Fagre 2005, p. 1; Hall and Fagre 2003, p. 139; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007a, p...

Severe Weather in United States Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth; Wehner, Michael; Zobel, Zachary

2014-05-01

The science has become clear and convincing that the Earth's climate is rapidly changing [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014]. Along with the overall changes in climate, there is strong evidence of an increasing trend over recent decades in the frequency, intensity, and duration of some types of extreme weather events, with resulting effects on U.S. society.

Climate Change Draws World Attention: The 2007 Nobel Peace Award Goes to Gore and IPCC

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bisland, Beverly Milner; Ahmad, Iftikhar

2008-01-01

In the fall of 2007, the Nobel Committee awarded their Peace Prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and by the United Nations Environment Program) and to former Vice-President Al Gore, Jr. The committee praised the United Nations panel for creating…

Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Forecasting Future Sea Ice Conditions: A Lagrangian ...GCMs participating in IPCC AR5 agree with observed source region patterns from the satellite- derived dataset. 4- Compare Lagrangian ice... Lagrangian sea-ice back trajectories to estimate thermodynamic and dynamic (advection) ice loss. APPROACH We use a Lagrangian trajectory model to

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myhre, Gunnar; Aas, Wenche; Ribu, Cherian; Collins, William; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Flanner, Mark; Forster, Piers; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Klimont, Zbigniew; Lund, Marianne T.

2017-01-01

Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.

Preliminary Evaluation of Method to Monitor Landfills Resilience against Methane Emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chusna, Noor Amalia; Maryono, Maryono

2018-02-01

Methane emission from landfill sites contribute to global warming and un-proper methane treatment can pose an explosion hazard. Stakeholder and government in the cities in Indonesia been found significant difficulties to monitor the resilience of landfill from methane emission. Moreover, the management of methane gas has always been a challenging issue for long waste management service and operations. Landfills are a significant contributor to anthropogenic methane emissions. This study conducted preliminary evaluation of method to manage methane gas emission by assessing LandGem and IPCC method. From the preliminary evaluation, this study found that the IPCC method is based on the availability of current and historical country specific data regarding the waste disposed of in landfills while from the LandGEM method is an automated tool for estimating emission rates for total landfill gas this method account total gas of methane, carbon dioxide and other. The method can be used either with specific data to estimate emissions in the site or default parameters if no site-specific data are available. Both of method could be utilize to monitor the methane emission from landfill site in cities of Central Java.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

The effects of climate-change-induced drought and freshwater wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.; Kleinebecker, Till; Middleton, B.A.

2012-01-01

Drought cycles in wetlands may become more frequent and severe in the future, with consequences for wetland distribution and function. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, 2012. Online: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf, climate-change is likely to affect precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns so that the world’s wetlands may have more frequent episodes of extreme flooding and drought. This chapter contributes to a worldwide view of how wetland processes may be affected by these predicted changes in climate. Specifically, the occurrence of drought may increase, and that increase may affect the critical processes that sustain biodiversity in wetlands. We include specific examples that explore the effects of drought and other climate-change factors on wetland function in various parts of the world. In a concluding section we discuss management strategies for climate-change in wetlands. The synthesis of information in this chapter will contribute to a better understanding of how climate-change-induced drought may affect the function and distribution of wetlands in the future.

Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.

2010-06-01

Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show thatmore » comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.« less

General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

2008-12-01

The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

Agent Model Development for Assessing Climate-Induced Geopolitical Instability.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.

2005-12-01

We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such modelsmore » do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3« less

Evaluation of CESM1 (WACCM) with Observations of Stratospheric Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnison, Doug; Froidevaux, Lucien; Garcia, Rolando; Fuller, Ryan

2017-04-01

The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is used in this study. CESM1 (WACCM) includes a detailed representation of tropospheric through lower thermospheric chemistry and physical processes. Simulations for this work were based on scenarios defined by the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These scenarios included both free-running (FR) and specified-dynamics versions (SD) of CESM1 (WACCM). Comparisons were made with global monthly zonal mean stratospheric data records from satellite-based remote measurements created by the Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere (GOZCARDS) project. These data records were drawn from high quality measurements of stratospheric composition starting in 1979 for ozone and in the early 1990s for other species. We discuss stratospheric variability and trends through analyses of observed time series of ozone (O3), hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric acid (HNO3), and water vapor (H2O), and we contrast the fits from the FR and SD model versions. Conclusions from this work have aided in the development of a new version of CESM (WACCM) that will be used in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) assessment.

Montreal Protocol: The Gift that Keeps on Giving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reifsnyder, D. A.

2012-12-01

Unlike many of my contemporaries, I did not begin my career with CFCs, ozone, and the Montreal Protocol. Instead, I began with climate change issue. In October 1989 I became Director of the Department of State's Office of Global Change, after the George H.W. Bush Administration agreed to host the Third Plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Georgetown University. Bert Bolin was IPCC Chair, Bill Reilly was EPA Administrator and John Sununu was White House Chief of Staff. I survived those early years and afterward had a long run with the climate change policy - lasting through six administrations. Last year I even chaired the Ad Hoc Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action in Durban at the 17th Conference of the Parties under the UN FCCC. I really plunged into the ozone issue in 2006 when I became the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Environment. By then ozone was hardly ever mentioned, except to recall that the Montreal Protocol was undoubtedly the most successful multilateral environmental agreement ever undertaken - and to contrast it nostalgically with others that have not fared so well - particularly climate. Even worse, ozone was ancient history and most people thought we had solved that problem. Richard Benedict's Ozone Diplomacy had long been a staple of college courses on the global environment but few graduates saw a career in ozone, and it had become difficult to find people in government who were willing to work on it. In early 2007, my staff and I met with colleagues at EPA to brainstorm about the global effort to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and move to alternatives - hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). The transition from CFCs was nearing its end but HCFCs, though less potent, were still a problem for the ozone layer. We began to wonder -- could something be done to accelerate the phaseouts of HCFCs? We realized that proposing an acceleration would mean that developed countries would need to go first. Only later would they be followed by developing countries. The question was, could we do it? And if we could, how could we get others developed countries and then developing countries on side? After our internal discussions, State and EPA convened a workshop with U.S. stakeholders from the private sector and the environmental community. To our delight, both groups thought the United States should take the initiative. In retrospect, the winds were favorable - 2007 marked the 25th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol and many wanted to celebrate it with something significant. The private sector felt that it could meet an accelerated timetable for phasing out HCFCs - the technology was there. It was also clear that money in the Montreal Protocol Multilateral Fund had begun to decline with the developing country phaseout of CFCs and would decline even more steeply unless a new basis were found to continue it. But favorable winds do not always make for a smooth sail - and path to the accelerated phaseouts of 2007 proved challenging. At the time, practically no one thought the effort would succeed. Still, we did succeed. Yet even then it took time to for many to appreciate the significant benefits for the climate system, beyond the benefits to the stratospheric ozone layer. In fact, the continuing story of the Montreal Protocol is one of the gift that keeps on giving.

Verifying the UK N_{2}O emission inventory with tall tower measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carnell, Ed; Meneguz, Elena; Skiba, Ute; Misselbrook, Tom; Cardenas, Laura; Arnold, Tim; Manning, Alistair; Dragosits, Ulli

2016-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a key greenhouse gas (GHG), with a global warming potential ˜300 times greater than that of CO2. N2O is emitted from a variety of sources, predominantly from agriculture. Annual UK emission estimates are reported, to comply with government commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UK N2O inventory follows internationally agreed protocols and emission estimates are derived by applying emission factors to estimates of (anthropogenic) emission sources. This approach is useful for comparing anthropogenic emissions from different countries, but does not capture regional differences and inter-annual variability associated with environmental factors (such as climate and soils) and agricultural management. In recent years, the UK inventory approach has been refined to include regional information into its emissions estimates (e.g. agricultural management data), in an attempt to reduce uncertainty. This study attempts to assess the difference between current published inventory methodology (default IPCC methodology) and a revised approach, which incorporates the latest thinking, using data from recent work. For 2013, emission estimates made using the revised approach were 30 % lower than those made using default IPCC methodology, due to the use of lower emission factors suggested by recent projects (www.ghgplatform.org.uk, Defra projects: AC0116, AC0213 and MinNO). The 2013 emissions estimates were disaggregated on a monthly basis using agricultural management (e.g. sowing dates), climate data and soil properties. The temporally disaggregated emission maps were used as input to the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME, for comparison with measured N2O concentrations, at three observation stations (Tacolneston, E England; Ridge Hill, W England; Mace Head, W Ireland) in the UK DECC network (Deriving Emissions linked to Climate Change). The Mace Head site, situated on the west coast of Ireland, was used to establish baseline concentrations. The trends in the modelled data were found to fit with the observational data trends, with concentration peaks coinciding with periods of fertiliser application and land spreading of manures. The model run using the 'experimental' approach was found to give a closer agreement with the observed data.

Modeling Patterns of Precipitation Phase in the Central Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strikas, O.; Pavelsky, T.

2013-12-01

Snowpack provides 75% of summer hydrologic flow in the western United States. This summer flow is vitally important in California, the country's leading producer of agriculture, with $43.5 billion dollars in cash receipts in 2011. Snowpack in the California Sierra Nevada has declined by approximately half from 1900 to 1990. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model at a 3km resolution to understand the critical temperature window at which both snow and rain fall for the Central Sierra Nevada during the 2002 water year. Results suggest that temperature and snow fraction [snowfall / (snowfall + rainfall)] share a logistic relationship with the snow fraction being 1 until approximately 272 K, then the snow fraction decreases by approximately 22%/K leveling at 0 snow fraction at 276.5 K. We further examine the spatial patterns of temperatures, precipitation amounts, and precipitation types in the Sierra Nevada to determine the areas of greatest potential snow to rain transition under a future warmer climate. Preliminary results suggest that the high risk areas are at the low to mid elevations. This research provides evidence that even a minor increase in temperature (+0.5 K) will yield changes in spring and summer hydrographs for the region. The spatial variability of IPCC temperature regime change for 2050 and 2100 will be downscaled for a higher resolution prediction of precipitation. It is currently under investigation how the proposed IPCC (A1 and B2) predictions of climate change for the region by 2050 (+2.7 K; +1.6 K ) and 2100 (+4.4 K; +2.7 K) will alter the corresponding annual river hydrographs. Given the complex topography of the Sierra Nevada, several spatial interpolations using GIS and statistical algorithms will be executed to render this high resolution (3km) output. Other future work with collaborators intends to model the agricultural risk associated with our predicted changes. This plot demonstrates the relation between temperature and snow fraction. The red line represents 273 K. The Loess regression (and its standard error) is shown in black (gray). It indicates a snow fraction decrease that begins 272.5 K and finishes with 100% rain at 277.5 K.

Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.

2009-12-01

Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach is being attempted in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) whereby multiple global models are used to drive multiple regional models for the current period and the mid-21st century over the continent. Progress in this endeavor will be reported.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

Process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Struthers, H.; Ekman, A. M.; Nilsson, E. D.

2011-12-01

Sea salt, an important natural aerosol, is generated by bubbles bursting at the surface of the ocean. Sea salt aerosol contributes significantly to the global aerosol burden and radiative budget and are a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in remote marine areas (Monahan et al., 1986). Consequently, changes in marine aerosol abundance is expected to impact on climate forcing. Estimates of the atmospheric burden of sea salt aerosol mass derived from chemical transport and global climate models vary greatly both in the global total and the spatial distribution (Texor et al. 2006). This large uncertainty in the sea salt aerosol distribution in turn contributes to the large uncertainty in the current estimates of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing (IPCC, 2007). To correctly attribute anthropogenic climate change and to veraciously project future climate, natural aerosols including sea salt must be understood and accurately modelled. In addition, the physical processes that determine the sea salt aerosol concentration are susceptible to modification due to climate change (Carslaw et al., 2010) which means there is the potential for feedbacks within the climate/aerosol system. Given the large uncertainties in sea salt aerosol modelling, there is an urgent need to evaluate the process description of sea salt aerosols in global models. An extremely valuable source of data for model evaluation is the long term measurements of PM10 sea salt aerosol mass available from a number of remote marine observation sites around the globe (including the GAW network). Sea salt aerosol concentrations at remote marine locations depend strongly on the surface exchange (emission and deposition) as well as entrainment or detrainment to the free troposphere. This suggests that the key parameters to consider in any analysis include the sea surface water temperature, wind speed, precipitation rate and the atmospheric stability. In this study, the sea salt aerosol observations are analysed to quantify the key sensitivities of the processes connecting the physical drivers of sea salt aerosol to the mass tendency. The analysis employs a semi-empirical model based on the time-tendency of the aerosol mass. This approach of focusing on the time-tendency of the sea salt aerosol concentration provides a framework for the process evaluation of sea salt aerosol concentrations in global models. The same analysis methodology can be applied to output from global models. A process of comparing the sensitivity parameters derived from observations and models will reveal model inadequacies and thus guide model improvements. Carslaw, K. S., Boucher, O., Spracklen, D. V., Mann G. W., Rae, J. G. L, Woodward, S., Kulmala, M. (2010). Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 1701-1737 IPCC (2007). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Monahan, E. C., Spiel, D. E., Davidson, K. L. (1986) Oceanic Whitecaps ed. Monahan E. C. & MacNiochaill, D. Reidel, Norwell, Mass. Texor, C., et al. (2006) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 1777-1813.

Towards depth profiling of organic aerosols in real time using aerosol flowing atmospheric-pressure afterglow mass spectrometry (AeroFAPA-MS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, Martin; Hoffmann, Thorsten

2014-05-01

Organic aerosol accounts for a substantial fraction of tropospheric aerosol and has implications on the earth's climate and human health. However, the characterization of its chemical composition and transformations remain a major challenge and is still connected to large uncertainties (IPCC, 2013). Recent measurements revealed that organic aerosol particles may reside in an amorphous or semi-solid phase state which impedes the diffusion within the particles (Virtanen et al., 2010; Shiraiwa et al., 2011). This means that reaction products which are formed on the surface of a particle, e.g. by OH, NO3 or ozone chemistry, cannot diffuse into the particle's core and remain at the surface. Eventually, this leads to particles with a core/shell structure. In the particles' cores the initial compounds are preserved whereas the shells contain mainly the oxidation products. By analyzing the particles' cores and shells separately, thus, it is possible to obtain valuable information on the formation and evolution of the aerosols' particle and gas phase. Here we present the development of the aerosol flowing atmospheric-pressure afterglow (AeroFAPA) technique which allows the mass spectrometric analysis of organic aerosols in real time. The AeroFAPA is an ion source based on a helium glow discharge at atmospheric pressure. The plasma produces excited helium species and primary reagent ions which are transferred into the afterglow region where the ionization of the analytes takes place. Due to temperatures of only 80 ° C to 150 ° C and ambient pressure in the afterglow region, the ionization is very soft and almost no fragmentation of organic molecules is observed. Thus, the obtained mass spectra are easy to interpret and no extensive data analysis procedure is necessary. Additionally, first results of a combination of the AeroFAPA-MS with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) suggest that it is not only possible to analyze the entire particle phase but rather that a separate analysis of the particles' shells and cores is feasible by adjusting flow rates and temperatures in the ionization region. References: IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press. A. Virtanen; J. Joutsensaari; T. Koop; J. Kannosto; P. Yli-Pirila; J. Leskinen; J. M. Makela; J. K. Holopainen; U. Pöschl; M. Kulmala; D. R. Worsnop; A. Laaksonen, "An amorphous solid state of biogenic secondary organic aerosol particles", Nature 7317, 824-827 [2010]. M. Shiraiwa; M. Ammann; T. Koop; U. Pöschl, "Gas uptake and chemical aging of semisolid organic aerosol particles", P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 27, 11003-11008 [2011].

Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

consequently, higher ocean water temperatures are increasing the occurrence of coral bleaching and coral reef die-offs.57 The IPCC concludes that...unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, in- sects, ocean acidification ), and other global...instance, the disintegration of saltwater fishing indus- tries due to ocean acidification could spark inter- and intrastate conflict as numerous

Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - Impacts to the Great Lakes

Treesearch

Amanda Schramm; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural and cultural resources. Although climate change was once believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human emissions of greenhouse gases have significantly contributed to recent...

Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Ocean Active Upper-Layer Heat Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byshev, Vladimir I.; Neiman, Victor G.; Anisimov, Mikhail V.; Gusev, Anatoly V.; Serykh, Ilya V.; Sidorova, Alexandra N.; Figurkin, Alexander L.; Anisimov, Ivan M.

2017-07-01

Spatial patterns in multi-decadal variability in upper ocean heat content for the last 60 years are examined using a numerical model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russia (INM Model) and sea water temperature-salinity data from the World Ocean Database (in: Levitus, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66, U.S. Wash.: Gov. Printing Office, 2009). Both the model and the observational data show that the heat content of the Active Upper Layer (AUL) in particular regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans have experienced prominent simultaneous variations on multi-decadal (25-35 years) time scales. These variations are compared earlier revealed climatic alternations in the Northern Atlantic region during the last century (Byshev et al. in Doklady Earth Sci 438(2):887-892, 2011). We found that from the middle of 1970s to the end of 1990s the AUL heat content decreased in several oceanic regions, while the mean surface temperature increased on Northern Hemisphere continents according to IPCC (in: Stocker et al. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). This means that the climate-forcing effect of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in certain energy-active areas determines not only local climatic processes, but also have an influence on global-scale climate phenomena. Here we show that specific regional features of the AUL thermal structure are in a good agreement with climatic conditions on the adjacent continents. Further, the ocean AUL in the five distinctive regions identified in our study have resumed warming in the first decade of this century. By analogy inference from previous climate scenarios, this may signal the onset of more continental climate over mainlands.

Rebased Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and observed Global Mean Temperature: constraints and implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

One of the benchmarks of global climate models (GCMs) is that their slow, decadal or longer timescale variations in past changes in Global Mean Temperature (GMT) track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other by as much as 3 degrees [2]. Subtracting these offsets, or rebasing, is an integral part of comparisons between observed past GMT and the GMT anomalies generated by ensembles of GCMs. We will formalize how rebasing introduces constraints in how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear. Feedbacks in the different models when expressed through GMT are then to leading order linear. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, given the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters. As a consequence, the GMT timeseries future projections generated by the GCMs may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8, IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 2012]4, IPCC SPM.6

IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

The Reasons for Concern (RFC) framework communicates scientific understanding about risks in relation to varying levels of climate change. The framework, which has been a cornerstone of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments since the Third Assessment Report, aggregates global risks into five categories as a function of global mean temperature change (GMT). The RFC framework was developed to inform discussions relevant to implementation of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 2 presents the Convention's long-term objective of avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." The RFC framework and the associated "Burning Embers" diagram illustrating authors' risk judgments have since been widely discussed and used to inform policy decisions. For example, they informed a recent dialog between Parties to the UNFCCC and experts on the adequacy of the long-term goal of avoiding a warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, contributing to a strengthening of that goal in the recent Paris Agreement. We draw on a new review and update of the RFC's conceptual basis and the risk judgments made in the most recent IPCC report to discuss their implications for risks associated with GMT targets of 1.5 C and 2 C adopted in the Paris Agreement. In general, the RFCs imply that continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) would lead to high or very high risk of severe, widespread, and in some cases irreversible climate change impacts within this century. At 2°C above preindustrial, High risks are based on increasing risks to Arctic and coral reef systems, as well as increasing species extinction risks that undermine ecosystems (RFC 1), and projected increasing magnitude and likelihood of extreme weather events (RFC 2). Moderate-to-High risks are based on projections of increasing risks to crop production and water resources (RFC 3), and to the risks associated with ice sheet disintegration and very large sea level rise (RFC5). Limiting warming to 1.5°C would reduce the risks for RFCs 1 and 2 from High to the Moderate-to-High transition.

Human health risk assessment due to global warming--a case study of the Gulf countries.

PubMed

Husain, Tahir; Chaudhary, Junaid Rafi

2008-12-01

Accelerated global warming is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) due to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The climate changes are anticipated to have a long-term impact on human health, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources and vegetation. Due to rising sea levels, low lying coastal regions will be flooded, farmlands will be threatened and scarcity of fresh water resources will be aggravated. This will in turn cause increased human suffering in different parts of the world. Spread of disease vectors will contribute towards high mortality, along with the heat related deaths. Arid and hot climatic regions will face devastating effects risking survival of the fragile plant species, wild animals, and other desert ecosystems. The paper presents future changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity and their direct and indirect potential impacts on human health in the coastal regions of the Gulf countries including Yemen, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Bahrain. The analysis is based on the long-term changes in the values of temperature, precipitation and humidity as predicted by the global climatic simulation models under different scenarios of GHG emission levels. Monthly data on temperature, precipitation, and humidity were retrieved from IPCC databases for longitude 41.25 degrees E to 61.875 degrees E and latitude 9.278 degrees N to 27.833 degrees N. Using an average of 1970 to 2000 values as baseline, the changes in the humidity, temperature and precipitation were predicted for the period 2020 to 2050 and 2070 to 2099. Based on epidemiological studies on various diseases associated with the change in temperature, humidity and precipitation in arid and hot regions, empirical models were developed to assess human health risk in the Gulf region to predict elevated levels of diseases and mortality rates under different emission scenarios as developed by the IPCC.The preliminary assessment indicates increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, thermal stress, and increased frequency of infectious vector borne diseases in the region between 2070 and 2099.

Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ver, L.M.B.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Lerman, A.

In the past three centuries, human perturbations of the environment have affected the biogeochemical behavior of the global carbon cycle and that of the other three nutrient elements closely coupled to carbon: nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. The partitioning of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} among its various sinks in the past, for the present, and for projections into the near future is controlled by the interactions of these four elemental cycles within the major environmental domains of the land, atmosphere, coastal oceanic zone, and open ocean. The authors analyze the past, present, and future behavior of the global carbon cycle using themore » Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model (TOTEM), a unique process-based model of the four global coupled biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur. They find that during the past 300 yrs, anthropogenic CO{sub 2} was mainly stored in the atmosphere and in the open ocean. Human activities on land caused an enhanced loss of mass from the terrestrial organic matter reservoirs (phytomass and humus) mainly through deforestation and consequently increased humus remineralization, erosion, and transport to the coastal margins by rivers and runoff. Photosynthetic uptake by the terrestrial phytomass was enhanced owing to fertilization by increasing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations and supported by nutrients remineralized from organic matter. TOTEM results indicate that through most of the past 300 yrs, the loss of C from deforestation and other land-use activities was greater than the gain from the enhanced photosynthetic uptake. Since pre-industrial time (since 1700), the net flux of CO{sub 2} from the coastal waters has decreased by 40%, from 0.20 Gt C/yr to 0.12 Gt C/yr. TOTEM analyses of atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations for the 21st century were based on the fossil-fuel emission projections of IPCC (business as usual scenario) and of the more restrictive UN 1997 Kyoto Protocol. By the mid-21st century, the projected atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations range from about 550 ppmv (TOTEM, based on IPCC projected emissions) to 510 ppmv (IPCC projection) and to 460 ppmv (TOTEM, based on the Kyoto Protocol reduced emissions).« less

Development and application of a mechanistic model to estimate emission of nitrous oxide from UK agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, L.; Syed, B.; Jarvis, S. C.; Sneath, R. W.; Phillips, V. R.; Goulding, K. W. T.; Li, C.

A mechanistic model of N 2O emission from agricultural soil (DeNitrification-DeComposition—DNDC) was modified for application to the UK, and was used as the basis of an inventory of N 2O emission from UK agriculture in 1990. UK-specific input data were added to DNDC's database and the ability to simulate daily C and N inputs from grazing animals and applied animal waste was added to the model. The UK version of the model, UK-DNDC, simulated emissions from 18 different crop types on the 3 areally dominant soils in each county. Validation of the model at the field scale showed that predictions matched observations well. Emission factors for the inventory were calculated from estimates of N 2O emission from UK-DNDC, in order to maintain direct comparability with the IPCC approach. These, along with activity data, were included in a transparent spreadsheet format. Using UK-DNDC, the estimate of N 2O-N emission from UK current agricultural practice in 1990 was 50.9 Gg. This total comprised 31.7 Gg from the soil sector, 5.9 Gg from animals and 13.2 Gg from the indirect sector. The range of this estimate (using the range of soil organic C for each soil used) was 30.5-62.5 Gg N. Estimates of emissions in each sector were compared to those calculated using the IPCC default methodology. Emissions from the soil and indirect sectors were smaller with the UK-DNDC approach than with the IPCC methodology, while emissions from the animal sector were larger. The model runs suggested a relatively large emission from agricultural land that was not attributable to current agricultural practices (33.8 Gg in total, 27.4 Gg from the soil sector). This 'background' component is partly the result of historical agricultural land use. It is not normally included in inventories of emission, but would increase the total emission of N 2O-N from agricultural land in 1990 to 78.3 Gg.

Introduction to the SONEX (Subsonic Assessment Ozone and Nitrogen Oxides Experiment) and POLINAT-2 (Pollution from Aircraft Emissions in the North Atlantic Flight Corridor) Special Issue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Anne M.; Singh, Hanwant B.; Schlager, Hans; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Emissions of atmospheric species from the engines of subsonic aircraft at cruise altitude (roughly, above seven kilometers) are of concern to scientists, the aviation industry and policymakers for two reasons. First, water vapor, soot and sulfur oxides, and related heterogeneous processes, may modify clouds and aerosols enough to perturb radiative forcing in the UT/LS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere). A discussion of these phenomena appears in Chapter 3 of the IPCC Aviation Assessment (1999). An airborne campaign conducted to evaluate aviation effects on contrail, cirrus and cloud formation, is described in Geophysical Research Letters. The second concern arises from subsonic aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NO(sub x)), CO, and hydrocarbons. These species may add to the background mixture of photochemically reactive species that form ozone. In the UT/LS, ozone is a highly effective greenhouse gas. The impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions on tropospheric NO(sub x) and ozone budgets have been studied with models that focus on UT chemistry [e.g. see discussions of individual models in Brasseur et al., 1998; Friedl et al., 1997; IPCC, 1999]. Depending on the model used, projected increases in the global subsonic aircraft fleet from 1992 to 2015 will lead to a 50-100 pptv increase in UT/LS NO. at 12 km (compared to 50-150 pptv background) in northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The corresponding 12-km ozone increase is 7-11 ppbv, or 5-10% (Chapter 4 in IPCC, 1999). Two major sources of uncertainties in model estimates of aviation effects are: (1) the often limited degree to which global models - the scale required to evaluate aircraft emissions - realistically simulate atmospheric transport and other physical processes; (2) limited UT/LS observations of trace gases with which to evaluate model performance. In response to the latter deficiency, a number of airborne campaigns aimed at elucidating the effect of aircraft on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone were performed between 1990 and 1996 (see descriptions in Friedl et al., 1997; Brasseur et al., 1998).

Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States forest service northern region, 1906-2010

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Global forests capture and store significant amounts of CO2 through photosynthesis. When carbon is removed from forests through harvest, a portion of the harvested carbon is stored in wood products, often for many decades. The United States Forest Service (USFS) and other agencies are interested in accurately accounting for carbon flux associated with harvested wood products (HWP) to meet greenhouse gas monitoring commitments and climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This paper uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) production accounting approach and the California Forest Project Protocol (CFPP) to estimate HWP carbon storage from 1906 to 2010 for the USFS Northern Region, which includes forests in northern Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and eastern Washington. Results Based on the IPCC approach, carbon stocks in the HWP pool were increasing at one million megagrams of carbon (MgC) per year in the mid 1960s, with peak cumulative storage of 28 million MgC occurring in 1995. Net positive flux into the HWP pool over this period is primarily attributable to high harvest levels in the mid twentieth century. Harvest levels declined after 1970, resulting in less carbon entering the HWP pool. Since 1995, emissions from HWP at solid waste disposal sites have exceeded additions from harvesting, resulting in a decline in the total amount of carbon stored in the HWP pool. The CFPP approach shows a similar trend, with 100-year average carbon storage for each annual Northern Region harvest peaking in 1969 at 937,900 MgC, and fluctuating between 84,000 and 150,000 MgC over the last decade. Conclusions The Northern Region HWP pool is now in a period of negative net annual stock change because the decay of products harvested between 1906 and 2010 exceeds additions of carbon to the HWP pool through harvest. However, total forest carbon includes both HWP and ecosystem carbon, which may have increased over the study period. Though our emphasis is on the Northern Region, we provide a framework by which the IPCC and CFPP methods can be applied broadly at sub-national scales to other regions, land management units, or firms. PMID:22244260

Field assessment of semi-aerobic condition and the methane correction factor for the semi-aerobic landfills provided by IPCC guidelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeong, Sangjae; Nam, Anwoo; Yi, Seung-Muk

Highlights: • CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} and CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% are proposed as indices to evaluate semi-aerobic landfills. • A landfill which CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} > 1.0 is difficult to be categorized as semi-aerobic landfill. • Field conditions should be carefully investigated to determine landfill types. • The MCF default value for semi-aerobic landfills underestimates the methane emissions. - Abstract: According to IPCC guidelines, a semi-aerobic landfill site produces one-half of the amount of CH{sub 4} produced by an equally-sized anaerobic landfill site. Therefore categorizing the landfill type is important on greenhouse gas inventories. In order to assess semi-aerobicmore » condition in the sites and the MCF value for semi-aerobic landfill, landfill gas has been measured from vent pipes in five semi-aerobically designed landfills in South Korea. All of the five sites satisfied requirements of semi-aerobic landfills in 2006 IPCC guidelines. However, the ends of leachate collection pipes which are main entrance of air in the semi-aerobic landfill were closed in all five sites. The CH{sub 4}/CO{sub 2} ratio in landfill gas, indicator of aerobic and anaerobic decomposition, ranged from 1.08 to 1.46 which is higher than the values (0.3–1.0) reported for semi-aerobic landfill sites and is rather close to those (1.0–2.0) for anaerobic landfill sites. The low CH{sub 4} + CO{sub 2}% in landfill gas implied air intrusion into the landfill. However, there was no evidence that air intrusion has caused by semi-aerobic design and operation. Therefore, the landfills investigated in this study are difficult to be classified as semi-aerobic landfills. Also MCF of 0.5 may significantly underestimate methane emissions compared to other researches. According to the carbon mass balance analyses, the higher MCF needs to be proposed for semi-aerobic landfills. Consequently, methane emission estimate should be based on field evaluation for the semi-aerobically designed landfills.« less

Bias correction in Global Mean Temperature comparisons between Global Climate Models and implications for the deterministic and stochastic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2017-04-01

Global mean temperature (GMT) provides a simple means of benchmarking a broad ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) against past observed GMT which in turn provide headline assessments of the consequences of possible future forcing scenarios. The slow variations of past changes in GMT seen in different GCMs track each other [1] and the observed GMT reasonably closely. However, the different GCMs tend to generate GMT time-series which have absolute values that are offset with respect to each other [2]. Subtracting these offsets is an integral part of comparisons between ensembles of GCMs and observed past GMT. We will discuss how this constrains how the GCMs are related to each other. The GMT of a given GCM is a macroscopic reduced variable that tracks a subset of the full information contained in the time evolving solution of that GCM. If the GMT slow timescale dynamics of different GCMs is to a good approximation the same, subject to a linear translation, then the phenomenology captured by this dynamics is essentially linear; any feedback is to leading order linear in GMT. It then follows that a linear energy balance evolution equation for GMT is sufficient to reproduce the slow timescale GMT dynamics, provided that the appropriate effective heat capacity and feedback parameters are known. As a consequence, the GCM's GMT timeseries may underestimate the impact of, and uncertainty in, the outcomes of future forcing scenarios. The offset subtraction procedure identifies a slow time-scale dynamics in model generated GMT. Fluctuations on much faster timescales do not typically track each other from one GCM to another, with the exception of major forcing events such as volcanic eruptions. This suggests that the GMT time-series can be decomposed into a slow and fast timescale which naturally leads to stochastic reduced energy balance models for GMT. [1] IPCC Chapter 9 P743 and fig 9.8,IPCC TS.1 [2] see e.g. [Mauritsen et al., Tuning the Climate of a Global Model, Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems, 2012] 4, IPCC SPM.6

Regional Climate and Streamflow Projections in North America Under IPCC CMIP5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Castro, C. L.; Troch, P. A. A.; Mukherjee, R.

2014-12-01

The Colorado River system is the predominant source of water supply for the Southwest U.S. and is already fully allocated, making the region's environmental and economic health particularly sensitive to annual and multi-year streamflow variability. Observed streamflow declines in the Colorado Basin in recent years are likely due to synergistic combination of anthropogenic global warming and natural climate variability, which are creating an overall warmer and more extreme climate. IPCC assessment reports have projected warmer and drier conditions in arid to semi-arid regions (e.g. Solomon et al. 2007). The NAM-related precipitation contributes to substantial Colorado streamflows. Recent climate change studies for the Southwest U.S. region project a dire future, with chronic drought, and substantially reduced Colorado River flows. These regional effects reflect the general observation that climate is being more extreme globally, with areas climatologically favored to be wet getting wetter and areas favored to be dry getting drier (Wang et al. 2012). Multi-scale downscaling modeling experiments are designed using recent IPCC AR5 global climate projections, which incorporate regional climate and hydrologic modeling components. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been selected as the main regional modeling tool; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) will be used to generate streamflow projections for the Colorado River Basin. The WRF domain is set up to follow the CORDEX-North America guideline with 25km grid spacing, and VIC model is individually calibrated for upper and lower Colorado River basins in 1/8° resolution. The multi-scale climate and hydrology study aims to characterize how the combination of climate change and natural climate variability is changing cool and warm season precipitation. Further, to preserve the downscaled RCM sensitivity and maintain a reasonable climatology mean based on observed record, a new bias correction technique is applied when using the RCM climatology to the streamflow model. Of specific interest is how major droughts associated with La Niña-like conditions may worsen in the future, as these are the times when the Colorado River system is most critically stressed and would define the "worst case" scenario for water resource planning.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some indicators are presented that the scenario presented here should not be disregarded, and comparisons are made to the outputs of emission scenarios used for the IPCC reports.

Quality Controlling CMIP datasets at GFDL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, L. W.; Radhakrishnan, A.; Balaji, V.; Adcroft, A.; Krasting, J. P.; Nikonov, S.; Mason, E. E.; Schweitzer, R.; Nadeau, D.

2017-12-01

As GFDL makes the switch from model development to production in light of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), GFDL's efforts are shifted to testing and more importantly establishing guidelines and protocols for Quality Controlling and semi-automated data publishing. Every CMIP cycle introduces key challenges and the upcoming CMIP6 is no exception. The new CMIP experimental design comprises of multiple MIPs facilitating research in different focus areas. This paradigm has implications not only for the groups that develop the models and conduct the runs, but also for the groups that monitor, analyze and quality control the datasets before data publishing, before their knowledge makes its way into reports like the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Reports. In this talk, we discuss some of the paths taken at GFDL to quality control the CMIP-ready datasets including: Jupyter notebooks, PrePARE, LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP/Python/Perl): technology-driven tracker system to monitor the status of experiments qualitatively and quantitatively, provide additional metadata and analysis services along with some in-built controlled-vocabulary validations in the workflow. In addition to this, we also discuss the integration of community-based model evaluation software (ESMValTool, PCMDI Metrics Package, and ILAMB) as part of our CMIP6 workflow.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Undergraduate Research Experience in Ocean/Marine Science (URE-OMS) with African Student Component

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). RESULTS Temporal and Spatial Variations of Sea Surface Temperature and Chlorophyll a in Coastal Waters of...Duck, North Carolina [4] Climate change has affected the North Carolina coastal environments and coastal hazards have already taken place in the area...from geological materials (sands, dead and/or bleached corals ...etc) shifted by waves, tides, and currents moving sediments and eroding shorelines

Redistribution of vegetation zones and populations of Larix sibirica Ledb. and Pinus sylvestris L. in central Siberia in a warming climate

Treesearch

N.M. Tchebakova; G.E. Rehfeldt; E.I. Parfenova

2003-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming (Hulme et al. 1999), based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001). Recent GCM projections of the Hadley Centre (Gordon et al. 2000) for Siberia show...

An overview of some concepts, potentials, issues, and realities of assisted migration for climate change adaptation in forests

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Stephen Matthews; Anantha Prasad

2013-01-01

The climate has always been changing, but the rapid rate of climate change, as projected by the IPCC (2007) will likely place unique stresses on plant communities. In addition, anthropogenic barriers (e.g., fragmented land use) present a significant modern constraint that will limit the ability of species migration in responses to a changing climate. As such, managers...

Climate Change and Future World

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

the distribution of fish 8 species.37 Increasing ocean acidification is threatening coral reefs that play an important role in mitigating the...into space the power that has not been used. This enormous thermal machine, that is the climate system, is constituted by the atmosphere, oceans ...and extension of the Arctic ice and mountain glaciers in the northern hemisphere are reducing. According to the IPCC, the 5 Arctic Ocean could be

Strategies to compensate for the effects of nonresponse on forest carbon baseline estimates from the national forest inventory of the United States

Treesearch

Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; Ronald E. McRoberts; Mark A. Hatfield

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystem carbon (C) stocks and stock change in the United States (US) have been documented using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) procedures and guidance with 1990 as a baseline reference for all United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reports. In the US, estimates of forest C stocks and stock change are obtained from data...

Measuring resilience to climate change: The benefits of forest conservation in the floodplain

Treesearch

Carolyn Kousky; Margaret Walls; Ziyan Chu

2014-01-01

The economic costs of flooding have increased in the United States over the last several decades, largely as a result of more people and property, and more valuable property, located in harm’s way (Pielke and Downton 2000). In addition, climate models predict increases in the intensity of precipitation events in many locations (Wuebbles and Hayhoe 2004; IPCC 2012). How...

Global Climate Change - U.S. Economic and National Security Opportunity

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-20

The most recent findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...challenges and opportunities for the United States as they balance national security and economic interests. The effects of climate change could act as a...are various opportunities associated with climate change including opening arctic navigational channels and the vast oil and natural gas resources

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Earths Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments

DOE PAGES

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph; ...

2014-12-08

Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by Otto et al. (2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content.more » This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO₂ given in AR5, 1.5–4.5 K/(3.7 W m⁻²) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2–2.9 K/(3.7 W m⁻²), where 3.7 W ⁻² denotes the forcing for doubled CO₂. Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects.« less

Kevin E. Trenberth Receives 2013 Climate Communication Prize: Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2014-01-01

I am delighted to be recognized with this prize. I want to first thank AGU and the prize committee and, especially, Nature's Own for establishing this prize in a field that has become contentious and highly political. It did not used to be this way. Following the media frenzy with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, there was hope at the 2009 Conference of Parties meeting in Copenhagen that an international framework agreement on climate change might be achieved. It was not to be. Planned actions to address issues of climate change were undermined by huge funding of misinformation by vested interests. It was not helped by so-called "climategate" in which many emails illegally hacked from a computer server at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom were released, cherry picked, distorted, and misused by climate change deniers. Minor errors in the IPCC report were blown out of all proportion and ineffectively addressed. I was caught up in all this, and one of my many emails went viral: the "travesty" quote in which I bemoaned the inability to close the global energy balance associated with short-term climate variability but which was misinterpreted as saying there was no global warming. These examples highlight failures of communication.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean.

PubMed

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-07-07

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

PubMed Central

Péron, Clara; Weimerskirch, Henri; Bost, Charles-André

2012-01-01

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies. PMID:22378808

Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raftery, Adrian E.; Zimmer, Alec; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Startz, Richard; Liu, Peiran

2017-09-01

The recently published Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections to 2100 give likely ranges of global temperature increase in four scenarios for population, economic growth and carbon use. However, these projections are not based on a fully statistical approach. Here we use a country-specific version of Kaya's identity to develop a statistically based probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions and temperature change to 2100. Using data for 1960-2010, including the UN's probabilistic population projections for all countries, we develop a joint Bayesian hierarchical model for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and carbon intensity. We find that the 90% interval for cumulative CO2 emissions includes the IPCC's two middle scenarios but not the extreme ones. The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 °C, with median 3.2 °C and a 5% (1%) chance that it will be less than 2 °C (1.5 °C). Population growth is not a major contributing factor. Our model is not a `business as usual' scenario, but rather is based on data which already show the effect of emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 °C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.

Activities of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) in the Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Rotman, D. A.; Bergmann, D. J.; Baughcum, S. L.; Friedl, R. R.; Anderson, D. E.

2004-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated a peak increase in ozone ranging from 7-12 ppbv (zonal and annual average, and relative to a baseline with no aircraft), due to the subsonic aircraft in the year 2015, corresponding to aircraft emissions of 1.3 TgN/year. This range of values presumably reflects differences in model input (e.g., chemical mechanism, ground emission fluxes, and meteorological fields), and algorithms. The model implemented by the Global Modeling Initiative allows testing the impact of individual model components on the assessment calculations. We present results of the impact of doubling the 1995 aircraft emissions of NOx, corresponding to an extra 0.56 TgN/year, utilizing meteorological data from NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model, version 3 (MACCM3). Comparison of results to observations can be used to assess the model performance. Peak ozone perturbations ranging from 1.7 to 2.2 ppbv of ozone are calculated using the different fields. These correspond to increases in total tropospheric ozone ranging from 3.3 to 4.1 Tg/Os. These perturbations are consistent with the IPCC results, due to the difference in aircraft emissions. However, the range of values calculated is much smaller than in IPCC.

The Discovery of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacCracken, Michael C.

2004-07-01

At the beginning of the twentieth century, the prospect of ``global warming'' as a result of human activities was thought to be far off, and in any case, likely to be beneficial. As we begin the twenty-first century, science adviser to the British government, Sir David King, has said that he considers global warming to be the world's most important problem, including terrorism. Yet, dealing with it has become the subject of a contentious international protocol, numerous conferences of international diplomats, and major scientific assessments and research programs. Spencer Weart, who is director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of Physics, has taken on the challenge of explaining how this came to be. In the tradition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was established in 1988 to evaluate and assess the state of global warming science, this book is roughly equivalent to the Technical Summary, in terms of its technical level, being quite readable, but with substantive content about the main lines of evidence. Underpinning this relatively concise presentation, there is a well-developed-and still developing-Web site that, like the detailed chapters of the full IPCC assessment reports, provides vastly more information and linkages to a much wider set of reference materials (see http://www.aip.org/history/climate).

Contesting the 'national interest' and maintaining 'our lifestyle': a discursive analysis of political rhetoric around climate change.

PubMed

Kurz, Tim; Augoustinos, Martha; Crabb, Shona

2010-09-01

The release of the fourth United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in February 2007 prompted a flood of responses from political leaders around the globe. Perhaps nowhere was this more apparent than in Australia, where its release coincided with the first sitting week of the Australian Parliament, in an election year. The current study involves a discursive analysis of climate change rhetoric produced by politicians from the major Australian political parties in the period following the release of the IPCC leading up to the national election. Data include both transcripts of parliamentary debate and statements directly broadcast in the media. The analysis focuses on the various ways in which the issue of climate change was invoked and rhetorically managed by each of the two parties in the lead up to the election. In particular, it focuses on the ways in which appeals to the 'national interest' and 'lifestyle maintenance', both regular features of political rhetoric, were mobilized by both parties to discursively manage their positions on the climate change issue. Implications of the ways in which such appeals were constructed are discussed in relation to the discursive limits of the ways in which the issue of climate change is constructed in public debate.

SEEG initiative estimates of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2015.

PubMed

de Azevedo, Tasso Rezende; Costa Junior, Ciniro; Brandão Junior, Amintas; Cremer, Marcelo Dos Santos; Piatto, Marina; Tsai, David Shiling; Barreto, Paulo; Martins, Heron; Sales, Márcio; Galuchi, Tharic; Rodrigues, Alessandro; Morgado, Renato; Ferreira, André Luis; Barcellos E Silva, Felipe; Viscondi, Gabriel de Freitas; Dos Santos, Karoline Costal; Cunha, Kamyla Borges da; Manetti, Andrea; Coluna, Iris Moura Esteves; Albuquerque, Igor Reis de; Junior, Shigueo Watanabe; Leite, Clauber; Kishinami, Roberto

2018-05-29

This work presents the SEEG platform, a 46-year long dataset of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Brazil (1970-2015) providing more than 2 million data records for the Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Waste and Land Use Change Sectors at national and subnational levels. The SEEG dataset was developed by the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian civil society initiative, based on the IPCC guidelines and Brazilian National Inventories embedded with country specific emission factors and processes, raw data from multiple official and non-official sources, and organized together with social and economic indicators. Once completed, the SEEG dataset was converted into a spreadsheet format and shared via web-platform that, by means of simple queries, allows users to search data by emission sources and country and state activities. Because of its effectiveness in producing and making available data on a consistent and accessible basis, SEEG may significantly increase the capacity of civil society, scientists and stakeholders to understand and anticipate trends related to GHG emissions as well as its implications to public policies in Brazil.

The difference of level CO2 emissions from the transportation sector between weekdays and weekend days on the City Centre of Pemalang

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawitri, E.; Hardiman, G.; Buchori, I.

2017-06-01

The high growth of human activity potentially increases the number of vehicles and the use of fossil fuels that contribute the increase of CO2 emissions in atmosphere. Controlling CO2 emission that causes greenhouse effect becomes the main agenda of Indonesian Government. The first step control CO2 emissions is by measuring the level of CO2 emissions, especially CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in the transport sector. This research aims to assess the level of CO2 emissions from transportation sector on the main roads in the city centre of Pemalang both in weekdays and weekend days. The methods applied to calculate CO2 emissions using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 method. For this, a survey on the number of vehicles passing through the main roads using hand tally counter is firstly done. The results, CO2 emissions in working day, i.e. 49,006.95 tons/year compared to weekend i.e. 38,865.50 tons/year.

Review of CO2 Reduction Technologies using Mineral Carbonation of Iron and Steel Making Slag in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norhana Selamat, Siti; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Rashid, Muhammad Hanif Abdul; Fauzi Ahmad, Mohd; Mohamad, Fariza; Ismail, Al Emran; Fahrul Hassan, Mohd; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Zain, Mohd Zamzuri Mohd; Abu Bakar, Elmi; Seiji, Yokoyama

2017-10-01

Climate change, greenhouse gas effect, and global warming is envisioning to turn more awful and more terrible by year. Since the leading cause of global warming is uncontrolled CO2 in atmosphere. The amount of unused steel slag is expected to increment later on, steel industries is one of the mechanical industries that contribute the CO2 emission. That because this businesses deliver carbon in light of powers reductant and substantial volume of steel. The changes of atmosphere these day is truly developing concern and that make steel creator are confronted with test of discovering methods for bringing down CO2 emission. Malaysia is working decidedly in the diminishment of CO2 gas. There are a few techniques in decreasing the amount of CO2 in the air as underlined by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), an organization under the United Country however CCS is an extremely encouraging innovation to moderate CO2 emission in air. Mineral carbonation is another technique to store carbon dioxide permanently, long term stability and vast capacity.

Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Lorenzo, María N; Ramos, Alexandre M; Taboada, Juan J; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-21

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4(th) assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types.

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Lorenzo, María N.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Taboada, Juan J.; Gimeno, Luis

2011-01-01

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types. PMID:21283703

PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China: overview of situation and responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hua

This work reviewed the observational status of PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone in China. It told us the observational facts on the ratios of typical types of aerosol components to the total PM2.5/PM10, and daily and seasonal change of near surface ozone concentration at different cities of China; the global concentration distribution of tropospheric ozone observed by satellite in 2010-2013 was also given for comparison; the PM2.5 concentration distribution and their seasonal change in China region were simulated by an aerosol chemistry-global climate modeling system. Different contribution from five kinds of aerosols to the simulated PM2.5 was analyzed. Then, it linked the emissions of aerosol and greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing and thus gave their climatic effect by reducing their emissions on the basis of most recently published IPCC AR5. Finally it suggested policies on reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) (such as PM2.5 and tropospheric ozone) in China from protecting both climate and environment.

SEEG initiative estimates of Brazilian greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2015

PubMed Central

de Azevedo, Tasso Rezende; Costa Junior, Ciniro; Brandão Junior, Amintas; Cremer, Marcelo dos Santos; Piatto, Marina; Tsai, David Shiling; Barreto, Paulo; Martins, Heron; Sales, Márcio; Galuchi, Tharic; Rodrigues, Alessandro; Morgado, Renato; Ferreira, André Luis; Barcellos e Silva, Felipe; Viscondi, Gabriel de Freitas; dos Santos, Karoline Costal; Cunha, Kamyla Borges da; Manetti, Andrea; Coluna, Iris Moura Esteves; Albuquerque, Igor Reis de; Junior, Shigueo Watanabe; Leite, Clauber; Kishinami, Roberto

2018-01-01

This work presents the SEEG platform, a 46-year long dataset of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Brazil (1970–2015) providing more than 2 million data records for the Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Waste and Land Use Change Sectors at national and subnational levels. The SEEG dataset was developed by the Climate Observatory, a Brazilian civil society initiative, based on the IPCC guidelines and Brazilian National Inventories embedded with country specific emission factors and processes, raw data from multiple official and non-official sources, and organized together with social and economic indicators. Once completed, the SEEG dataset was converted into a spreadsheet format and shared via web-platform that, by means of simple queries, allows users to search data by emission sources and country and state activities. Because of its effectiveness in producing and making available data on a consistent and accessible basis, SEEG may significantly increase the capacity of civil society, scientists and stakeholders to understand and anticipate trends related to GHG emissions as well as its implications to public policies in Brazil. PMID:29809176

Earth radiation balance as observed and represented in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Schär, Christoph; Loeb, Norman; König-Langlo, Gert

2014-05-01

The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the Earth radiation balance. Despite of its key role in the context of climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of the magnitudes of its different components, and its representation in climate models. While the net radiative energy flows in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere are now known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES and SORCE, the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth's surface is less well determined. Accordingly, the magnitudes of the components of the surface energy balance have recently been controversially disputed, and potential inconsistencies between the estimated magnitudes of the global energy and water cycle have been emphasized. Here we summarize this discussion as presented in Chapter 2.3 of the 5th IPCC assessment report (AR5). In this context we made an attempt to better constrain the magnitudes of the surface radiative components with largest uncertainties. In addition to satellite observations, we thereby made extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the radiation balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combined these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for AR5 (CMIP5) to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean values of downward surface solar and thermal radiation near 185 and 342 Wm-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations (Wild et al. 2013). These estimates are on the order of 10 Wm-2 lower and higher, respectively, than in some of the previous global energy balance assessments, including those presented in previous IPCC reports. It is encouraging that these estimates, which make full use of the information contained in the surface networks, coincide within 2 Wm-2 with the latest satellite-derived estimates (Kato et al. 2013), which are completely independently determined. This enhances confidence in these recent surface flux estimates. IPCC AR5 further presents increasing evidence from direct observations that the surface radiative fluxes undergo significant changes on decadal timescales, not only in their thermal components as expected from the increasing greenhouse effect, but also in the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth surface. In the thermal range, surface observations suggest an overall increase of downward thermal radiation in line with latest projections from the CMIP5 models and expectations from an increasing greenhouse effect. On the other hand the strong decadal changes in surface solar radiation seen in the observations ("dimming/brightening") are not fully captured by current climate models. These decadal changes in surface solar radiation may largely affect various aspects of climate change. Selected related references: Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F. Dentener, E. Dlugokencky, D. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B. Soden, P. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kato, S., Loeb, N.G., Rose, F.G., Doelling, D.R., Rutan, D.A., Caldwell, T.E., Yu, L.S, and Weller, R.A., 2013: Surface irradiances consistent with CERES-derived top-of-atmosphere shortwave and longwave irradiances. Journal of Climate 26 (9):2719-2740. doi:Doi 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00436.1 Wild, M., 2012: New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance. Atmospheric Environment, 55, 366-367. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1 Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E.G., and König-Langlo, G., 2013: The global energy balance from a surface perspective, Clim. Dyn., 40, 3107-3134, Doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8.

Equilibrium Line Altitudes and paleotemperature reconstructions from Nevado Hualcán (9°S) and Nevado Coropuna (15°S), Tropical Andes (Peru).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Úbeda, J.; Giráldez, C.; Palacios, D.

2012-04-01

We have reconstructed the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) in seven valleys on the SW slope of Nevado Hualcán (9°S, 77°W; 6122 m asl) and on the SE slope of Nevado Coropuna (15°S, 72°W; 6377masl) using the Area x Altitude Balance Ratio method (Osmaston 2005). We have also deduced the paleotemperatures using the following equation: ΔT=ATLR•ΔELA; being ΔT (°C) the paleotemperature depression; ATLR (°C/m) the Atmospheric Temperature Lapse Rate; and ΔELA (m) the ELA depression. The ATLR for Coropuna was deduced through the use of data loggers. For Hualcán we used the value ATLR =0.0065°C/m, valid for the tropics (Kaser and Osmaston, 2002). We obtained the following results: 1) Hualcán: a) ELAs: 5124m (2003); 5018m (1962); 4994m during the Little Ice Age (LIA); and 4652m during the last studied maximum advance considered to be the Younger Dryas (YD, ~13-11ka) by correlation with nearby mountains (Glasser et al., 2009). b) ΔELAs: 106m (1962); 130m (LIA); and 199m (YD). c) ΔT: -0.69°C (1962); -0.85°C (LIA); -3.07°C (YD). 2) Coropuna: a) ELAs: 5862m (2007); 5853m (1986); 5787m (1955); 5776 (LIA); and 4951m in the 13-1136Cl ka phase (Ubeda, 2011). b) ΔELA: 9m (1986); 66m (1955); 86m (LIA); and 911m in 13-1136Cl ka. C) ΔT: -0.20°C (1986); -0.71°C (1955); and -7.65°C (13-1136Cl ka). The values ΔT during LIA in Hualcán and Coropuna (0.85 and 0.72°C) are consistent with the global warming considered to be 0,74°C between 1906 and 2005 (IPCC, 2007). During the mid XXth century and the LIA, ΔT is higher in Hualcán (0.69°C and 0.85°C) than in Coropuna (0.55°C and 0.72°C), with a regional gradient of -0.02°C per degree of latitude (°C/°). However, during the YD (13-1136Cl ka), ΔT was higher in Coropuna (7.65°C) than in Hualcán (3.07°C), with a gradient of 0.76°C/°. Although other evidences exist of a pantropical cooling of >5°C during the last glaciation, in Coropuna this cooling was strengthened by the retro-alimentation of its glacial system which in 13-1136Cl ka had a surface of >400 km2 (Ubeda, 2011). Glasser, N.F., Clemmens, S., Schnabel, C., Fenton, C.R. and McHargue, L., 2009. Tropical glacier fluctuations in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru between 12.5 and 7.6 ka from cosmogenic 10Be dating. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28: 3448-3458. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp. Kaser, G. and Osmaston, H., 2002. Tropical Glaciers. International Hydrology Series. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (U.K.), 207 pp. Osmaston, H., 2005. Estimates of glacier equilibrium line altitudes by the Area x Altitude, the Area x Altitude Balance Ratio and the Area x Altitude Balance Index methods and their validation. Quaternary International, 22-31: 138-139. Úbeda, J., 2011. El impacto del cambio climático en los glaciares del complejo volcánico Nevado Coropuna (cordillera occidental de los Andes, Sur del Perú). PhD Thesis. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, (Spain), 558 pp. Available online: http://eprints.ucm.es/12076/ Research funded by CGL2009-7343 project, Government of Spain.

Adapting to Climate Change: Reconsidering the Role of Protected Areas and Protected Organisms in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graumlich, L. J.; Cross, M. S.; Hilty, J.; Berger, J.

2007-12-01

With the recent publication of the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), little doubt remains among scientists that the global climate system is changing due to human influence and that climate change will have far-reaching and fundamental impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity. Arguably the best-documented evidence linking 20th Century warming trends to changes in physical and biological systems comes from the mountains of western North America (e.g., Figure SPM1 in Summary of Working Group 11 Report). In the West, ecosystem impacts include changes in the distribution of species as well as changing functional linkages between species such as the synchrony between flower emergence and pollinating insects. These climate impacts, when combined with other environmental stressors (e.g., altered disturbance regimes, land-use change and habitat fragmentation) portend an amplification of species extinction rates. One of the great challenges in adapting to climate change is developing and implementing policies that enhance ecological resilience in the face of these change. Clearly, the current system of nature reserves in Western North America is a fundamental asset for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the fixed- boundary nature of these protected areas presents a problem as species' ranges shift with future climate change. The loss of species whose ranges move outside of fixed park boundaries and the arrival of other species that move into protected areas could lead to significant turnover of species diversity, new species assemblages, and altered functionality. In short, reserves that were designed to protect particular species or communities may no longer serve their intended purpose under a changing climate. In this talk, we use case studies from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and the Sonoran Desert Ecosystem to define strategies for enhancing ecological resilience to climate change at regional scales, taking into account the need for creating ecological connectivity between protected areas. We are particularly interested in defining opportunities in which traditional "working landscapes", such as large ranches in western North America, play a functional role in enhancing connectivity in the near-term as well as into the future. Based on our own work and that of others, we define the scientific roadmap for identifying and selecting corridors that are robust to climate change and other stressors and that are politically and socially viable as an adaptation strategy.

Advancing agricultural greenhouse gas quantification*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Eva; Tubiello, Francesco; Herold, Martin

2013-03-01

1. Introduction Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use. The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011). 2. Agriculture and climate change mitigation The main agricultural GHGs—methane and nitrous oxide—account for 10%-12% of anthropogenic emissions globally (Smith et al 2008), or around 50% and 60% of total anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively, in 2005. Net carbon dioxide fluxes between agricultural land and the atmosphere linked to food production are relatively small, although significant carbon emissions are associated with degradation of organic soils for plantations in tropical regions (Smith et al 2007, FAO 2012). Population growth and shifts in dietary patterns toward more meat and dairy consumption will lead to increased emissions unless we improve production efficiencies and management. Developing countries currently account for about three-quarters of direct emissions and are expected to be the most rapidly growing emission sources in the future (FAO 2011). Reducing agricultural emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in the soil and biomass has the potential to reduce agriculture's contribution to climate change by 5.5-6.0 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq)/year. Economic potentials, which take into account costs of implementation, range from 1.5 to 4.3 GT CO2eq/year, depending on marginal abatement costs assumed and financial resources committed, with most of this potential in developing countries (Smith et al 2007). The opportunity for mitigation in agriculture is thus significant, and, if realized, would contribute to making this sector carbon neutral. Yet it is only through a robust and shared understanding of how much carbon can be stored or how much CO2 is reduced from mitigation practices that informed decisions can be made about how to identify, implement, and balance a suite of mitigation practices as diverse as enhancing soil organic matter, increasing the digestibility of feed for cattle, and increasing the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer applications. Only by selecting a portfolio of options adapted to regional characteristics and goals can mitigation needs be best matched to also serve rural development goals, including food security and increased resilience to climate change. Expansion of agricultural land also remains a major contributor of greenhouse gases, with deforestation, largely linked to clearing of land for cultivation or pasture, generating 80% of emissions from developing countries (Hosonuma et al 2012). There are clear opportunities for these countries to address mitigation strategies from the forest and agriculture sector, recognizing that agriculture plays a large role in economic and development potential. In this context, multiple development goals can be reinforced by specific climate funding granted on the basis of multiple benefits and synergies, for instance through currently negotiated mechanisms such as Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) (REDD+, Kissinger et al 2012). 3. Challenges to quantifying GHG information for the agricultural sector The quantification of GHG emissions from agriculture is fundamental to identifying mitigation solutions that are consistent with the goals of achieving greater resilience in production systems, food security, and rural welfare. GHG emissions data are already needed for such varied purposes as guiding national planning for low-emissions development, generating and trading carbon credits, certifying sustainable agriculture practices, informing consumers' choices with regard to reducing their carbon footprints, assessing product supply chains, and supporting farmers in adopting less carbon-intensive farming practices. Demonstrating the robustness, feasibility, and cost effectiveness of agricultural GHG inventories and monitoring is a necessary technical foundation for including agriculture in the international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and is needed to provide robust data and methodology platforms for global corporate supply-chain initiatives (e.g., SAFA, FAO 2012). Given such varied drivers for GHG reductions, there are a number of uses for agricultural GHG information, including (1) reporting and accounting at the national or company level, (2) land-use planning and management to achieve specific objectives, (3) monitoring and evaluating impact of management, (4) developing a credible and thus tradable offset credit, and (5) research and capacity development. The information needs for these uses is likely to differ in the required level of certainty, scale of analysis, and need for comparability across systems or repeatability over time, and they may depend on whether descriptive trends are sufficient or an understanding of drivers and causes are needed. While there are certainly similar needs across uses and users, the necessary methods, data, and models for quantifying GHGs may vary. Common challenges for quantification noted in an informal survey of users of GHG information by Olander et al (2013) include the following. 3.1. Need for user-friendly methods that work across scales, regions, and systems Much of the data gathered and models developed by the research community provide high confidence in data or indicators computed at one place or for one issue, thus they are relevant for only specific uses, not transparent, or not comparable. These research approaches need to be translated to practitioners though the development of farmer friendly, transparent, comparable, and broadly applicable methods. Many users noted the need for quantification data and methods that work and are accurate across region and scales. One of the interviewed users, Charlotte Streck, summed it up nicely: 'A priority would be to produce comparable datasets for agricultural GHG emissions of particular agricultural practices for a broad set of countries ... with a gradual increase in accuracy'. 3.2. Need for lower cost, feasible approaches Concerns about cost and complexity of existing quantification methods were raised by a number of users interviewed in the survey. In the field it is difficult to measure changes in GHGs from agricultural management due to spatial and temporal variability, and the scale of the management-induced changes relative to background pools and fluxes. Many users noted data gaps and inconsistencies and insufficient technical capacity and infrastructure to generate necessary information, particularly in developing countries. The need for creative approaches for data collection and analysis, such as crowd sourcing and mobile technology, were noted. 3.3. Need for methods that can crosswalk between emission-reduction strategy and inventories or reporting A few users emphasized the need for information and quantification approaches that cannot only track GHGs but also help with strategic planning on what to grow where and when to maximize mitigation and adaptation benefits. Methods need to incorporate the quantification context, taking into account climate impacts, viability, and cost of management options. Thus, data and methods are needed that integrate climate impacts into models used to assess the potential and costs of GHG mitigation strategies. 3.4. Need for confidence thresholds and rules that are appropriate for use Users noted that national inventories through the UNFCCC or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) require 95% confidence, while some offset market standards leave confidence levels to the discretion of the developer, using discounts in value for greater uncertainty. Nonetheless, these standards tend to have expectations of 20% confidence or better. In fact, both regulatory and voluntary reporting suffer from large uncertainties in the underlying activity data as well as in emission factors. In some circumstances emissions factors may add as much as 50-150% uncertainty to GHG estimates (IPCC 2006). Uncertainty clearly needs to be assessed in implementing projects and programs. In some cases there are uncertainty thresholds, while in others uncertainty is assessed and used as part of the quantification process. What is not always clear is where uncertainty thresholds are necessary to maintain the usefulness of the information and where they are hindering early progress. 3.5. Easily understood and common metrics for policy and market users Inventories usually track tons of CO2 equivalents, while supply-chain and corporate reporting are more likely to track efficiency metrics, such as GHG emissions per unit of product; offsets protocols may combine both approaches. As demand for food rises, efficiency of production becomes an increasingly important metric, even if total CO2 equivalents need to be tracked in parallel to assess climate impacts. For livestock systems it is unclear which metrics are most important to track, GHGs per unit of meat or milk or perhaps per calorie? Different metrics are likely needed for different uses. 3.6. Capacity development in developing countries There is need to improve on the current lack of capacities to monitor land use and land-use change and their associated GHG emissions and removals for national inventories (UNFCCC 2008, Romijn et al 2012). Since there are ongoing efforts to improve, data, methods and capacities for monitoring forests in the context of REDD+ (Herold and Skutsch 2011), synergies should be sought to use and build upon joint data sources and approaches, such as remote sensing, field inventories, crowd sourcing. and human capacities to estimate and report on GHG balance in both forests and agriculture. A number of specific objectives to meet these challenges are discussed in this special issue. Improve the accuracy of emissions factors across regional differences. Improve national inventory data of management activities, crop type and variety, and livestock breeds. Use historical data and data collection over time to show trends. Test the extent of model applications through field validation (e.g., can they be used in regions with less data?). Enhance technical capacity and infrastructure for data acquisition and for application of mitigation strategies in field programs. Increase understanding of which mitigation practices result in more resilient systems. Improve understanding of the GHG tradeoffs of expanding fertilizer use. While data sources and methods are improving and research and operational monitoring are increasing, the international community can be strategic in targeting support for this work and coordinating data and information collection to move toward revised good practice guidelines that would address the particular circumstances and practices dominant in developing countries. 4. Current data infrastructure and systems supporting GHG quantification in the agricultural sector To understand the challenges facing GHG quantification it is helpful to understand the existing supporting infrastructure and systems for quantification. The existing and developing structures for national and local data acquisition and management are the foundation for the empirical and process-based models used by most countries and projects currently quantifying agricultural greenhouse gases. Direct measurement can be used to complement and supplement such models, but this is not yet sufficient by itself given costs, complexities, and uncertainties. One of the primary purposes of data acquisition and quantification is for national-level inventories and planning. For such efforts countries are conducting national-level collection of activity data (who is doing which agricultural practices where) and some are also developing national or regional-level emissions factors. Infrastructure that supports these efforts includes intergovernmental panels, global alliances, and data-sharing networks. Multilateral data sharing for applications, such as the FAO Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) (FAO 2012), the IPCC Emission Factor Database (IPCC 2012), and UNFCCC national inventories (UNFCCC 2012), are building greater consistency and standardization by using global standards such as the IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (e.g., IPCC 1996, 2003, 2006). There is also work on common quantification methods and accounting, for example agreed on global warming potentials for different contributing gases and GHG quantification methodologies for projects (e.g., the Verified Carbon Standard Sustainable Agricultural Land Management [SALM] protocol, VCS 2011). Other examples include the Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (2012) and GRACEnet (Greenhouse gas Reduction through Agricultural Carbon Enhancement network) (USDA Agricultural Research Service 2011), which aim to improve consistency of field measurement and data collection for soil carbon sequestration and soil nitrous oxide fluxes. Often these national-level activity data and emissions factors are the basis for regional and smaller-scale applications. Such data are used for model-based estimates of changes in GHGs at a project or regional level (Olander et al 2011). To complement national data for regional-, landscape-, or field-level applications, new data are often collected through farmer knowledge or records and field sampling. Ideally such data could be collected in a standardized manner, perhaps through some type of crowd sourcing model to improve regional—and national—level data, as well as to improve consistency of locally collected data. Data can also be collected by companies working with agricultural suppliers and in country networks, within efforts aimed at understanding firm and product (supply-chain) sustainability and risks (FAO 2009). Such data may feed into various certification processes or reporting requirements from buyers. Unfortunately, this data is likely proprietary. A new process is needed to aggregate and share private data in a way that would not be a competitive concern so such data could complement or supplement national data and add value. A number of papers in this focus issue discuss issues surrounding quantification methods and systems at large scales, global and national levels, while others explore landscape- and field-scale approaches. A few explore the intersection of top-down and bottom-up data measurement and modeling approaches. 5. The agricultural greenhouse gas quantification project and ERL focus issue Important land management decisions are often made with poor or few data, especially in developing countries. Current systems for quantifying GHG emissions are inadequate in most low-income countries, due to a lack of funding, human resources, and infrastructure. Most non-Annex 1 countries reporting agricultural emissions to the UNFCCC have used only Tier I default emissions factors (Nihart 2012, unpublished data), yet default numbers are based on a very limited number of studies. Furthermore, most non-Annex I countries have reported their National Communications only one or two times in the period 1990-2010. China, for instance, has not submitted agricultural inventory data since 1994. As we move toward the next IPCC assessment report on climate change and while UNFCCC negotiations give greater attention to the role of agriculture within international agreements, it is valuable to understand our current and potential near-term capacity to quantify and track emissions and assess mitigation potential in the agriculture sector, providing countries—especially least developed countries (LDCs)—with the information they need to promote and implement actions that, while conducive to mitigation, are also consistent with their rural development and food security goals. The purpose of this focus issue is to improve the knowledge and practice of quantifying GHG emissions from agriculture around the globe. The issue discusses methodological, data, and capacity gaps and needs across scales of quantification, from global and national-scale inventories to landscape- and farm-scale measurement. The inherent features of agriculture and especially smallholder farming have made quantification expensive and complicated, as farming systems and farmers' practices are diverse and impermanent and exhibit high temporal and spatial variability. Quantifying the emissions of the complex crop livestock or diverse cropping systems that characterize smallholder systems presents particular challenges. New ideas, methods, and uses of technology are needed to address these challenges. Many papers in this special issue synthesize the state of the art in their respective fields, analyze gaps, identify innovations, and make recommendations for improving quantification. Special attention is given to methods appropriate to low-income countries, where strategies are needed for getting robust data with extremely limited resources in order to support national mitigation planning within widely accepted standards and thus provide access to essential international support, including climate funding. Managing agricultural emissions needs to occur in tandem with managing for agricultural productivity, resilience to climate change, and ecosystem impacts. Management decisions and priorities will require measures and information that identify GHG efficiencies in production and reduce inputs without reducing yields, while addressing climate resilience and maintaining other essential environmental services, such as water quality and support for pollinators. Another set of papers in this issue considers the critical synergies and tradeoffs possible between these multiple objectives of mitigation, resilience, and production efficiency to help us understand how we need to tackle these in our quantification systems. Significant capacity to quantify greenhouse gases is already built, and with some near-term strategic investment, could become an increasingly robust and useful tool for planning and development in the agricultural sector around the world. Acknowledgments The Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Program of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, the Technical Working Group on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases (T-AGG) at Duke University's Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have come together to guide the development of this focus issue and associated activities and papers, given their common desire to improve our understanding of the state of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) quantification and to advance ideas for building data and methods that will help mitigation policy and programs move forward around the world. We thank the David and Lucile Packard Foundation for their support of this initiative. The project has been developed with guidance from an esteemed steering group of experts and users of mitigation information (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/international-project). Many of the papers in this issue were commissioned. Authors of each of the commissioned papers met with guest editors at FAO in Rome in April 2012 to further develop their ideas, synthesize state of the art knowledge and generate new ideas (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/events-and-presentations). Additional interesting and important research has come forward through the general call for papers and has been incorporated into this issue. References CCAFS (Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security) 2011 Victories for food and farming in Durban climate deals Press Release 13 December 2011 (http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/press-releases/victories-food-and-farming-durban-climate-deals) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) 2009 Expert consultation on GHG emissions and mitigation potentials in the agricultural, forestry and fisheries sectors (Rome: FAO) FAO 2011 Linking Sustainability and Climate Financing: Implications for Agriculture (Rome: FAO) FAO 2012 FAOSTAT online database (http://faostat.fao.org/) Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases 2012 www.globalresearchalliance.org/ Herold M and Skutsch M 2011 Monitoring, reporting and verification for national REDD+ programmes: two proposals Environ. Res. Lett. 6 014002 Hosonuma N, Herold M, De Sy V, De Fries R S, Brockhaus M, Verchot L, Angelsen A and Romijn E 2012 An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044009 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1996 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) IPCC 2003 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (Hayama: IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme) IPCC 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme ed H S Eggleston et al (Hayama: IGES) IPCC 2012 IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB) (www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/main.php) Kissinger G, Herold M and De Sy V 2012 Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation: A Synthesis Report for REDD+ Policymakers (Vancouver: Lexeme Consulting) (www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/tackling-climate-change/international-climate-change/6316-drivers-deforestation-report.pdf) Murphy D, McCandless M and Drexhage J 2010 Expanding Agriculture's Role in the International Climate Change Regime: Capturing the Opportunities (Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development) Nihart A 2012 unpublished data Olander L, Wollenberg L and Van de Bogert A 2013 Understanding the users and uses of agricultural greenhouse gas information CCAFS/NI T-AGG Report (in progress) Olander L P and Haugen-Kozyra K with contributions from Del Grosso S, Izaurralde C, Malin D, Paustian K and Salas W 2011 Using Biogeochemical Process Models to Quantify Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Agricultural Management Projects (Durham, NC: Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University) (http://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/ecosystem/t-agg/using-biogeochemical-process) Romijn J E, Herold M, Kooistra L, Murdiyarso D and Verchot L 2012 Assessing capacities of non-Annex I countries for national forest monitoring in the context of REDD+ Environ. Sci. Policy 20 33-48 Smith P et al 2007 Agriculture Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed B Metz, O R Davidson, P R Bosch, R Dave and L A Meyer (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Smith P et al 2008 Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363 789-813 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) 2008 Financial support provided by the Global Environment Facility for the preparation of National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention FCCC/SBI/2008/INF.10 (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/sbi/eng/inf10.pdf) UNFCCC 2012 GHG Data from UNFCCC (http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php) USDA (US Department of Agriculture) 2011 Agricultural Research Service (www.ars.usda.gov/research/programs/programs.htm?np_code=204&docid=17271) VCS (Verified Carbon Standard) 2011 New Methodology: VM0017 Sustainable Agricultural Land Management (http://v-c-s.org/SALM_methodology_approved) * We dedicate this special issue to the memory of Daniel Martino, a generous leader in greenhouse gas quantification and accounting from agriculture, land-use change, and forestry.

Climate Change Projection for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2014-12-01

As per recent Department of Energy (DOE) sustainability requirements, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a climate projection for the DOE's Savannah River Site (SRS) near Aiken, SC. This will comprise data from both a statistical and a dynamic downscaling process, each interpolated to the SRS. We require variables most relevant to operational activities at the site (such as the US Forest Service's forest management program), and select temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity as being most relevant to energy and water resource requirements, fire and forest ecology, and facility and worker safety. We then develop projections of the means and extremes of these variables, estimate the effect on site operations, and develop long-term mitigation strategies. For example, given that outdoor work while wearing protective gear is a daily facet of site operations, heat stress is of primary importance to work planning, and we use the downscaled data to estimate changes in the occurrence of high temperatures. For the statistical downscaling, we use global climate model (GCM) data from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP-5), which was used in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). GCM data from five research groups was selected, and two climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 - are used with observed data from site instruments and other databases to produce the downscaled projections. We apply a quantile regression downscaling method, which involves the use of the observed cumulative distribution function to correct that of the GCM. This produces a downscaled projection with an interannual variability closer to that of the observed data and allows for more extreme values in the projections, which are often absent in GCM data. The statistically downscaled data is complemented with dynamically downscaled data from the NARCCAP database, which comprises output from regional climate models forced with GCM output from the CMIP-3 database of GCM simulations. Applications of the downscaled climate projections to some of the unique operational needs of a large DOE weapons complex site are described.

The Effects of Acidic and Hypoxic Conditions on the Estuarine ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The interactive and combined effects of coastal acidification and hypoxia on estuarine species is an increasing concern as these stressors change concomitantly. There is a need to understand how these environmental factors interact, as well as their effect on estuarine organisms. A method was developed for this research whereby four exposure treatments were created simultaneously: ambient, elevated pCO2, (~1300µatm, IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario), hypoxic (low dissolved oxygen, ~2 mg/L), and combined elevated pCO2 with low dissolved oxygen. An exposure with variant water quality parameters allows for the comparative study of organismal survival response to acidified and hypoxic conditions. The goal of this research is to determine acute species sensitivity, which is determined by survivability, to the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and hypoxia over a 5 day period, as well as possible differences in sensitivity between life-stages. Preliminary research on sheepshead minnow and mysid shrimp, indicates that mysid shrimp were tolerant of both elevated pCO2 and low DO exposure regardless of life-stage, whereas sheepshead minnows were more sensitive to the combined effects of acidification and hypoxia. This work is part of the first phase of the NECAH project, which is identifying species that are sensitive to the combined effects of acidification and hypoxia. The project describes the initial work on the first 2 species selected for testing and the final product will be

Defining Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as a contribution to Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs): A Core Task of the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) to Accelerate Integration of Biological Observations in the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearlman, J.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Sousa Pinto, I.; Costello, M. J.; Duffy, J. E.; Appeltans, W.; Fischer, A. S.; Canonico, G.; Klein, E.; Obura, D.; Montes, E.; Miloslavich, P.; Howard, M.

2017-12-01

The Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) is a networking effort under the umbrella of the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON). The objective of the MBON is to link existing groups engaged in ocean observation and help define practical indices to deploy in an operational manner to track changes in the number of marine species, the abundance and biomass of marine organisms, the diverse interactions between organisms and the environment, and the variability and change of specific habitats of interest. MBON serves as the biodiversity arm of Blue Planet, the initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) for the benefit of society. The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) was established under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) in 1991 to organize international ocean observing efforts. The mission of the GOOS is to support monitoring to improve the management of marine and coastal ecosystems and resources, and to enable scientific research. GOOS is engaged in a continuing, rigorous process of identifying Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs). MBON is working with GOOS and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System (OBIS, also under the IOC) to define Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) as those Essential Ocean Variables (EOVs) that have explicit taxonomic records associated with them. For practical purposes, EBVs are a subset of the EOVs. The focus is to promote the integration of biological EOVs including EBVs into the existing and planned national and international ocean observing systems. The definition avoids a proliferation of 'essential' variables across multiple organizations. MBON will continue to advance practical and wide use of EBVs and related EOV. This is an effective way to contribute to several UN assessments (e.g., from IPBES, IPCC, and the World Ocean Assessment under the UN Regular Process), UN Sustainable Development Goals, and to address targets and goals defined under the Convention on Biological Diversity. It should provide guidelines for the International (UN) Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030 (IOC XXIX-1, 2017). We invite the community to enter a dialogue with MBON, GOOS, and OBIS to further refine these concepts and build an integrated system to observe life in the sea.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-15

atmospheric fields, including sea level pressure ( SLP ), on daily and sub-daily time scales at 2° horizontal resolution. A higher-resolution and more...its 21st-century simulation. Extreme cyclones were defined as occurrences of daily mean SLP at least 40 hPa below the climatological annual-average... SLP at a grid point. As such, no cyclone-tracking algorithm was employed, because the purpose here is to identify instances of extremely strong

The Consequential Challenges of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-22

LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT UNCLASSIFED b. ABSTRACT UNCLASSIFED c . THIS PAGE...3 precipitation events. As measured by multiple methods, the global annual average temperature rose 0.13˚ C per decade between 1955 and 2005...The IPCC projects global temperatures will rise by approximately 5 C in the next twenty years and 8 C to 4 C by the end of the century.15 These

Climate change and ecosystem services: The contribution of and impacts on federal public lands in the United States

Treesearch

Valerie Esposito; Spencer Phillips; Roelof Boumans; Azur Moulaert; Jennifer Boggs

2011-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) reports a likely 2 °C to 4.5 °C temperature rise in the upcoming decades. This warming is likely to affect ecosystems and their ability to provide services that benefit human well-being. Ecosystem services valuation (ESV), meanwhile, has emerged as a way to recognize the economic value embodied in these...

An interactive web application for visualizing climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-01-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duane, Greg; Tsonis, Anastasios; Kocarev, Ljupco

This collaborative reserach has several components but the main idea is that when imperfect copies of a given nonlinear dynamical system are coupled, they may synchronize for some set of coupling parameters. This idea is to be tested for several IPCC-like models each one with its own formulation and representing an “imperfect” copy of the true climate system. By computing the coupling parameters, which will lead the models to a synchronized state, a consensus on climate change simulations may be achieved.

Climate Change: Issues in the Science and Its Use

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

7 3. The State of the Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4...together with a review of the current state of the climate itself that establishes the importance of advancing our understanding. In the interests...common data stewardship and sharing standards. 3. The  State   of   the   Climate : Changes since the IPCC AR4  We assess the state of the climate against the

An Interactive Web Application for Visualizing Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alder, J.; Hostetler, S.; Williams, D.

2013-05-01

Massive volumes of data are being created as modeling centers from around the world finalize their submission of climate simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5), in preparation for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Scientists, resource managers, and other potential users of climate data are faced with the daunting task of analyzing, distilling, and summarizing this unprecedented wealth of climate information.

Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

of the present-day Arctic atmosphere in CCSM4. J. Climate, 2676-2695. Overeem, I ., R . S. Anderson, C. W. Wobus, G. D. Clow, F. E. Urban, and N...intensity of extreme Arctic cyclones? APPROACH I am targeting these objectives through a retrospective analysis of the transient 20th century...simulations (spanning years 1850-2005) among the GCMs participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). I am including 14

The Impacts of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Processes on Permafrost Soils and USAF Infrastructure within Northern Tier Bases

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-24

between the capabilities of these two soil conditions will need to be taken into account when designing the facility. Problem Statement The IPCC claims...ability to plan foundation designs and mitigation techniques for changing soil characteristics. 9 II. Literature Review...AFB will be constructed on permafrost soils. Golder Associates (2016) states in their design report, If permafrost soils are encountered, two of the

Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2012-01-01

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector’s projected...

Monitoring network confirms land use change is a substantial component of the forest carbon sink in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Brian F. Walters; John Coulston; A.W. D’Amato; Grant M. Domke; M.B. Russell; Paul Sowers

2015-01-01

Quantifying forest carbon (C) stocks and stock change within a matrix of land use (LU) and LU change is a central component of large-scale forest C monitoring and reporting practices prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using a region–wide, repeated forest inventory, forest C stocks and stock change by pool were examined by LU categories...

The impact of CO2-driven ocean acidification on early development and calcification in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius.

PubMed

Zhan, Yaoyao; Hu, Wanbin; Zhang, Weijie; Liu, Minbo; Duan, Lizhu; Huang, Xianya; Chang, Yaqing; Li, Cong

2016-11-15

The impact of CO 2 -driven ocean acidification(OA) on early development and calcification in the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius cultured in northern Yellow Sea was investigated by comparing fertilization success, early cleavage rate, hatching rate of blastulae, larvae survival rate at 70h post-fertilization, larval morphology and calcification under present natural seawater condition (pH=8.00±0.03) and three laboratory-controlled acidified conditions (OA 1 , △pH=-0.3units; OA 2 , △pH=-0.4units; OA 3 , △pH=-0.5units) projected by IPCC for 2100. Results showed that pH decline had no effect on the overall fertilization, however, with decreased pH, delayed early embryonic cleavage, reduced hatching rate of blastulae and four-armed larvae survival rate at 70h post-fertilization, impaired larval symmetry, shortened larval spicules, and corrosion spicule structure were observed in all OA-treated groups as compared to control, which indicated that CO 2 -driven OA affected early development and calcification in S. intermedius negatively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biomethane potential of the POME generated in the palm oil industry in Ghana from 2002 to 2009.

PubMed

Arthur, Richard; Glover, Kwasi

2012-05-01

The palm oil industry experienced significant improvement in its production level from 2002 to 2009 from the established companies, medium scale mills (MSM), small scale and other private holdings (SS and OPH) groups. However, the same cannot be said for treatment of the palm oil mill effluent (POME) produced. The quantity of crude palm oil (CPO) produced in Ghana from 2002 to 2009 and IPCC guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, specifically on industrial wastewater were used in this study. During this period about 10 million cubic metres of POME was produced translating into biomethane potential of 38.5 million m(3) with equivalent of 388.29 GW h of energy. A linear growth model developed to predict the equivalent carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions indicates that if the biomethane is not harnessed then by 2015 the untreated POME could produce 0.58 million tCO(2)-eq and is expected to increase to 0.70 million tCO(2)-eq by 2020. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emphasizing history in communicating scientific debates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, S. C.

2010-12-01

Communication to the public of the reality of anthropogenic climate change has been less successful than many expect. The scientists themselves, the media, special interest groups, or the complexity of modern society are often blamed. However a look at past scientific paradigm shifts, in particular the Copernican revolution and the discovery of relativity, shows close parallels with the modern situation. Common aspects include the gradual formation of a scientific consensus in advance of the public; a politically partisan backlash against the new theory that, paradoxically, occurs after the arrival of conclusive supporting evidence; the prevalence of convincing but invalid pseudo-scientific counterarguments; the general failure of "debates" to increase public acceptance of the scientists' position; and, in the case of the heliocentric solar system, a very long time scale to final public acceptance (> 100 years). Greater emphasis on the lessons from such historical parallels, and on the success so far of consensus predictions of global warming made up to and including the first IPCC report in 1990, might be one useful way of enhancing the public's trust in science and scientists and thereby accelerate acceptance of uncomfortable scientific findings.

Capabilities and performance of the new generation ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Mallinen, M.; Martin, C.; Raback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Schäfer, M.; Thies, J.

2012-12-01

Since the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, and its conclusion about the inability of ice-sheet flow models to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and associated contribution to sea-level rise, a huge development effort has been undertaken by the glaciological community. All around the world, models have been improved and, interestingly, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them, the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice (based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer) was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections of the future of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve dedicated local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. In this presentation, we summarise the almost 10 years of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planed for the future.

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

2013-03-01

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused by ozone was about 5.0-5.6% in the SSP2 scenario and 3.8-4.2% in the RCP scenario.

Trace gas emissions following deposition of excreta by grazing dairy cows in eastern Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochette, P.; Pelster, D. E.; Chantigny, M. H.; Angers, D. A.; Liang, C.; Belanger, G.; Ziadi, N.; Charbonneau, E.; Pellerin, D.

2012-04-01

The N2O emission factor proposed for cattle excreta N by the Tier I IPCC methodology (EF3) is 2% (IPCC, 2006). While N2O emissions from excreta deposited by grazing animals have been reported in several publications, relatively few estimated EF3 values because measurements did not cover the entire year. This study measured N2O and CH4 flux and crop dry matter (DM) yield over two years (2009 to 2011) from a clay and a sandy loam soil cultivated with Timothy grass (Phleum pratense L.). A split-plot design was used on each soil type, with different application dates (either spring, summer or autumn application) as main plots and treatment (U-50: urine 50 g N m-2, U-100: urine 100 g N m-2, dung: 60 g N m-2, and control) as the sub-plots. Regardless of application time, annual DM yield increased in all treated plots when compared to the control. Also, DM yields were generally greater when urine as opposed to dung was applied suggesting greater N-availability from the urine application. The CH4 flux from the dung plots increased for only the first two weeks after treatment while the flux from the urine plots was similar to the control plots. Cumulative N2O emissions on the U-50 and U-100 plots increased linearly with urine N rate on both soils, resulting in nearly identical mean emission factors for both urine rates. The emission factor for the urine was three times greater on the clay (1.02% of applied N on both rates) than on the sandy loam soil (0.26% (U100) and 0.31% (U50) of applied N). Cumulative N2O emissions from dung plots also differed between soil types; however the impact of soil type on N2O emissions was opposite to that of urine, with greater losses from the sandy loam (0.15%) compared with the clay soil (0.07%). These results suggest that estimates of soil N2O emissions by grazing cattle in Eastern Canada obtained using the IPCC default methodology are overestimates of actual values and that these estimates for should include a stratification according to soil type.

The comparison of fossil carbon fraction and greenhouse gas emissions through an analysis of exhaust gases from urban solid waste incineration facilities.

PubMed

Kim, Seungjin; Kang, Seongmin; Lee, Jeongwoo; Lee, Seehyung; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Jeon, Eui-Chan

2016-10-01

In this study, in order to understand accurate calculation of greenhouse gas emissions of urban solid waste incineration facilities, which are major waste incineration facilities, and problems likely to occur at this time, emissions were calculated by classifying calculation methods into 3 types. For the comparison of calculation methods, the waste characteristics ratio, dry substance content by waste characteristics, carbon content in dry substance, and (12)C content were analyzed; and in particular, CO2 concentration in incineration gases and (12)C content were analyzed together. In this study, 3 types of calculation methods were made through the assay value, and by using each calculation method, emissions of urban solid waste incineration facilities were calculated then compared. As a result of comparison, with Calculation Method A, which used the default value as presented in the IPCC guidelines, greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for the urban solid waste incineration facilities A and B at 244.43 ton CO2/day and 322.09 ton CO2/day, respectively. Hence, it showed a lot of difference from Calculation Methods B and C, which used the assay value of this study. It is determined that this was because the default value as presented in IPCC, as the world average value, could not reflect the characteristics of urban solid waste incineration facilities. Calculation Method B indicated 163.31 ton CO2/day and 230.34 ton CO2/day respectively for the urban solid waste incineration facilities A and B; also, Calculation Method C indicated 151.79 ton CO2/day and 218.99 ton CO2/day, respectively. This study intends to compare greenhouse gas emissions calculated using (12)C content default value provided by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) with greenhouse gas emissions calculated using (12)C content and waste assay value that can reflect the characteristics of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities. Also, the concentration and (12)C content were calculated by directly collecting incineration gases of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities, and greenhouse gas emissions of the target urban solid waste incineration facilities through this survey were compared with greenhouse gas emissions, which used the previously calculated assay value of solid waste.

Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.

2015-12-01

The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of the IPCC. Huggel, C., Stone, D., Eicken, H., & Hansen, G. (2015). Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z. Stocker et al. (eds.) (2013) The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability components. To maintain consistency with the IPCC definition of vulnerability, DOI may want to focus initial climate adaptation planning only on the outcomes of studies that comprehensively address vulnerability as inclusive of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Although the present study results are preliminary and used an unstructured survey design, they illustrate the importance of a comprehensive and consistent vulnerability definition and of using information on vulnerability components in DOI surveys to ensure relevant data are used to identify adaptation options.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Translating Scientific Conclusions about Risk for Public Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, T. E.

2009-12-01

Climate change has been aptly described as a problem of risk management, yet the scientific community has not been successful in helping the public engage in risk management effectively. Behavioral science studies demonstrate that, while the public generally accepts the reality of anthropogenic climate change today, the immanence of impacts and scale of risk and opportunities for effective mitigation are poorly understood. Helping the public overcome these misperceptions and engage in decision-making about climate risks is, perhaps, the climate communication community’s most urgent priority. Scientific writing and graphic conventions are poorly suited for communicating with non-scientists. Using examples from the IPCC 4th Assessment, this session will demonstrate how specific conventions in science writing and graph making have obscured critical information about climate risks. The session will further demonstrate how reformatting the graphical information can create an exceptionally clear picture of where humanity stands and the implications of various emissions pathways for the future. Attendees will appreciate how presentations of science results can be tailored to answer the public’s questions more effectively by highlighting useful information in accurate, yet accessible ways. Decision-makers and the public urgently need information about climate impact risks and the consequences of various emissions pathways. Yet written and graphic descriptions from the IPCC and other assessment agencies burden non-scientists with multiple temperature baselines (e.g., pre-Industrial, mid-20th century, late 20th century, today), two confusingly similar measures for the key human contribution to atmospheric composition (CO2 and CO2-eq), and multiple ways of describing probability and certainty. The public is further confounded by inconsistent graphic conventions in scientific figures, including inconsistent color-coding, labeling, axis orientation, and treatment of uncertainty. Scientific figures tend to either include too many different messages or over-generalize, and neither approach helps non-scientists identify useful metrics and apply them to decision-making. This session will briefly illustrate each of these problematic scientific conventions and present a more effective translation of key IPCC figures in a new graphic format that help non-scientists appreciate our situation and opportunities. This translation has received positive reviews from informal learning institutions and will be useful to the broader science communication community.

Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) global ocean retrospective analysis. Moreover, the resolution of our regional domain ( 10 km horizontal grid spacing) is comparable to that of current-generation IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global climate models and hence is expected to lead to better representation of these processes in IPCC-class global climate models.

Latest research related to climate change analysis with applications in impact studies over the territory of Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vukovic, Ana; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Djordjevic, Marija; Ruml, Mirjana; Rankovic-Vasic, Zorica; Przic, Zoran; Stojicic, Djurdja; Krzic, Aleksandra; Rajkovic, Borivoj

2015-04-01

Serbia is a country with relatively small scale terrain features with economy mostly based on local landowners' agricultural production. Climate change analysis must be downscaled accordingly, to recognize climatological features of the farmlands. Climate model simulations and impact studies significantly contribute to the future strategic planning in economic development and therefore impact analysis must be approached with high level of confidence. This paper includes research related to climate change and impacts in Serbia resulted from cooperative work of the modeling and user community. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections for the 21st century with multi-model approach and statistical bias correction are done in order to prepare model results for impact studies. Presented results are from simulations performed using regional EBU-POM model, which is forced with A1B and A2 SRES/IPCC (2007) with comparative analysis with other regional models and from the latest high resolution NMMB simulations forced with RCP8.5 IPCC scenario (2012). Application of bias correction of the model results is necessary when calculated indices are not linearly dependent on the model results and delta approach in presenting results with respect to present climate simulations is insufficient. This is most important during the summer over the north part of the country where model bias produce much higher temperatures and less precipitation, which is known as "summer drying problem" and is common in regional models' simulations over the Pannonian valley. Some of the results, which are already observed in present climate, like higher temperatures and disturbance in the precipitation pattern, lead to present and future advancement of the start of the vegetation period toward earlier dates, associated with an increased risk of the late spring frost, extended vegetation period, disturbed preparation for the rest period, increased duration and frequency of the draught periods, etc. Based on the projected climate changes an application is proposed of the ensemble seasonal forecasts for early preparation in case of upcoming unfavorable weather conditions. This paper was realized as a part of the projects "Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation" (43007) and "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Serbia" (37005) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia within the framework of integrated and interdisciplinary research for the period 2011-2015.

Past, Present, and Future Sea Level Change Assessments of Storm Surge: A Case Study Using Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hagen, S. C.

2012-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclonic conditions. Further, it is generally agreed that global sea levels due to climate change will rise anywhere from 18 to 100 cm by the year 2100 (Donoghue, 2011, IPCC, 2007) with some projecting even higher. Further, it is recognized that coastal Mississippi is highly susceptible to a retreating shoreline from sea level rise coupled with predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms from an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (Trenberth, 2005, Webster, et al., 2005). A fully-validated, state-of-the-art ADCIRC+UnSWAN hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past and future sea level changes were simulated. A regression was performed at local tide gauges to estimate past and project future sea levels. Also, surface roughness (i.e. Manning's n and wind reduction factors) was adjusted to reflect past landcover conditions as well as estimate future landcover change. Here, past, present and future sea level scenarios are modeled using a dynamic approach, along with Hurricane Katrina, and compared to present dynamic responses to sea level rise. The dynamic results will be compared and contrasted with a simpler bathtub model (static) approach. It will be demonstrated that water levels do not change linearly with modeled sea level cases (i.e. a 50 cm rise in sea level will not result in an additional 50 cm of water level at a given location) and are highly variable to changes in local conditions (e.g. topography, bathymetry, and surface roughness). Further, nearshore wind-wave conditions are affected by changes in local sea level due to the changes in momentum transfer from the waves to the water column. The results will be used to gain insight into possible morphological changes given several sea level scenarios coupled with an intense tropical cyclone. References Donoghue, J. (2011). "Sea Level History of the Northern Gulf of Mexico Coast and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the near Future." Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. IPCC (2007). "The Physical Sceince Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change." Climate Change 2007, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Avery, M. Tignor, and H. L. Miller, eds., Cambridge Univesity Press, Cambridge. Resio, D. T. (2007). "White Paper on Estimating Hurricane Inundation Probabilities." U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 125. Trenberth, K. (2005). "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming." Science, 308(5729), 1753-1754. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. J., Curry, J. A., and Chang, H.-R. (2005). "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment." Science, 309(5742), 1844-1846.

PERSPECTIVE: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassman, Kenneth G.

2007-03-01

There is a new urgency to improve the accuracy of predicting climate change impact on crop yields because the balance between food supply and demand is shifting abruptly from surplus to deficit. This reversal is being driven by a rapid rise in petroleum prices and, in response, a massive global expansion of biofuel production from maize, oilseed, and sugar crops. Soon the price of these commodities will be determined by their value as feedstock for biofuel rather than their importance as human food or livestock feed [1]. The expectation that petroleum prices will remain high and supportive government policies in several major crop producing countries are providing strong momentum for continued expansion of biofuel production capacity and the associated pressures on global food supply. Farmers in countries that account for a majority of the world's biofuel crop production will enjoy the promise of markedly higher commodity prices and incomesNote1. In contrast, urban and rural poor in food-importing countries will pay much higher prices for basic food staples and there will be less grain available for humanitarian aid. For example, the developing countries of Africa import about 10 MMt of maize each year; another 3 5 MMt of cereal grains are provided as humanitarian aid (figure 1). In a world where more than 800 million are already undernourished and the demand for crop commodities may soon exceed supply, alleviating hunger will no longer be solely a matter of poverty alleviation and more equitable food distribution, which has been the situation for the past thirty years. Instead, food security will also depend on accelerating the rate of gain in crop yields and food production capacity at both local and global scales. Maize imports and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa Figure 1. Maize imports (yellow bar) and cereal donations as humanitarian aid to the developing countries of Africa, 2001 2003. MMT = million metric tons. Data source: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Given this situation, the question of whether global climate change will have a net positive, negative, or negligible impact on crop yields takes on a larger significance because additional hundreds of millions of people could be at risk of hunger and the window of opportunity for mounting an effective response is closing. To answer this question, Lobell and Field use an innovative empirical/geostatistical approach to estimate the impact of increased temperature since 1980 on crop yields—a period when global mean temperature increased ~0.4 °C [2]. For three major crops—maize, wheat, and barley—there was a significant negative response to increased temperature. For all six crops evaluated (also including rice, soybean, and sorghum), the net impact of climate trends on yield since 1980 was negative. While the approach used by Lobell and Field can be questioned on several pointsNote2, the body of their work represents an ambitious global assessment of recent climate impact on crop yields. Most noteworthy is their conclusion that: the combined effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate trends have largely cancelled each other over the past two decades. They contrast their finding with the conclusion of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that CO2 benefits will exceed temperature-related yield reductions up to a 2 °C increase in mean temperature [3]. It should be noted, however, that the IPCC is coming out with a new assessment to be released in April 2007 (www.ipcc.ch/), and it remains to be seen if this conclusion still holds. The purpose here is not to support or challenge the conclusions of either Lobell and Field or the IPCC, but rather to highlight the fact that there are substantive differences between results obtained from geostatistical assessments based on recent climate trends and actual crop yields versus assessments based on results from controlled experiments in growth chambers, greenhouses, and field enclosures and crop modeling. And while there appears to be good agreement on the predicted impact of atmospheric CO2 enrichment on crop yields across a wide range of studies conducted using different approaches [4], there is less convincing evidence on the impact of warming temperatures. There are three reasons for greater uncertainty about temperature effects. First, it is logistically more difficult to control temperature at elevated levels in studies that allow crops to grow in an 'open-air' environment comparable to field-grown plants. The 'free-air carbon dioxide enrichment' (FACE) systems were specifically designed to avoid such problems for study of CO2 effects and appear to have been largely successful [4]. In contrast, growth chamber, greenhouse, and small-enclosure studies used for temperature-effect experiments have confounding effects associated with differences in humidity, air turbulence, and reduced light intensity that result from the need to more fully enclose experimental units with a transparent barrier to achieve adequate temperature control. Second, unlike CO2 effects, yield response to temperature is often discontinuous. In many crops, pollination fails if temperatures rise above a critical threshold, which can result in dramatic yield reductions due to very small changes in temperature. Also, because climate change is predicted to increase both average temperature and temperature variability, changes in both factors must be evaluated in experiments with realistic growth conditions to fully understand climate change impact on crop yields. Such experiments would require expensive infrastructure with creative new designs—studies that have yet to be conducted, in part due to lack of adequate funding. A third factor is the interactive effect of temperature and plant nitrogen (protein) content on respiration, which is poorly understood. In the absence of such studies, it is sobering to note that one long-term field study in which the effect of temperature on rice yield could be isolated from other factors documented a 15% decrease in yield for every 1 °C increase in mean temperature [5]. The magnitude of this decrease is considerably larger than predictions of yield decreases from higher temperature obtained from crop simulation models. Like the results of Lobell and Field [2], we see a discrepancy between estimates of the effects of warmer temperatures on crop yields based on the relationship between crop yields and temperature under field conditions versus those derived from modeling and experiments conducted under controlled conditions. As we make the historic transition from an extended period of surplus food production to one in which demand for staple crop commodities exceeds supply, there is a vital need to better understand the impact of warming temperatures on current and future crop yields. References [1] Council for Agricultural Science and Technology 2006 Convergence of agriculture and energy: Implications for Research and Policy CAST Commentary QTA 2006-3 (Ames, Iowa: CAST) (www.cast-science.org) [2] Lobell D B and Field C B 2007 Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming Environ. Res. Lett. 2 014002 [3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2 Climate Change 2001 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability IPCC Working Group 2, Third Assessment (New York: Cambridge University Press) [4] Tubiello F N et al 2006 Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply: A comment on 'Food for Thought...' by Long et al, Science 312:1918-1921, 2006 Eur. J. Agron. 26 215 23 [5] Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy J E, Laza R, Visperas R M, Zhong X, Centeno G S, Khush G and Cassman K G 2004 Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 101 9971 5 Notes Note1 USA (40% of global maize, 56% of global maize exports), Brazil (33% of global sugar, 36% of global sugar exports), Indonesia and Malaysia (81% of global palm oil, 88% of global palm oil exports)—2005 data from FAOSTAT: faostat.fao.org/site/395/default.aspx. Note2 For example, the use of a 'global season' for calculating temperatures is problematic. In the case of soybean, a substantial portion of global soybean production occurs in the southern hemisphere, mostly in Brazil and Argentina, yet the global season for temperature was July August—a time when soybean is not grown in these countries. Likewise the global season for rice was January October, a period in which two consecutive rice crops are grown in tropical and subtropical irrigated systems of Asia—systems that account for a large portion of global rice production. Photo of Kenneth G Cassman Dr Cassman is Director of the Nebraska Center for Energy Science Research at the University of Nebraska and the Heuermann Professor of Agronomy. His work focuses on ensuring local and global food security while improving environmental quality in many of the world's most productive cropping systems. Previous positions include: research agronomist in Brazil, Egypt and the Philippines; faculty member at the University of California-Davis; division/department head at the International Rice Research Institute and the University of Nebraska. He received a PhD from the University of Hawaii's College of Tropical Agriculture (1979) and a BS in Biology from the University of California, San Diego (1975).

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

Identification of Preferential Paths of Fossil Carbon within Water Resource Recovery Facilities via Radiocarbon Analysis.

PubMed

Tseng, Linda Y; Robinson, Alice K; Zhang, Xiaying; Xu, Xiaomei; Southon, John; Hamilton, Andrew J; Sobhani, Reza; Stenstrom, Michael K; Rosso, Diego

2016-11-15

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that all carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions generated by water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) during treatment are modern, based on available literature. Therefore, such emissions were omitted from IPCC's greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting procedures. However, a fraction of wastewater's carbon is fossil in origin. We hypothesized that since the fossil carbon entering municipal WRRFs is mostly from soaps and detergents as dissolved organic matter, its fate can be selectively determined during the universally applied separation treatment processes. Analyzing radiocarbon at different treatment points within municipal WRRFs, we verified that the fossil content could amount to 28% in primary influent and showed varying distribution leaving different unit operations. We recorded the highest proportion of fossil carbon leaving the secondary treatment as off-gas and as solid sludge (averaged 2.08 kg fossil-CO 2 -emission-potential m -3 wastewater treated). By including fossil CO 2 , total GHG emission in municipal WRRFs increased 13%, and 23% if an on-site energy recovery system exists although much of the postdigestion fossil carbon remained in biosolids rather than in biogas, offering yet another carbon sequestration opportunity during biosolids handling. In comparison, fossil carbon contribution to GHG emission can span from negligible to substantial in different types of industrial WRRFs. With such a considerable impact, CO 2 should be analyzed for each WRRF and not omitted from GHG accounting.

Greenhouse gas fluxes from smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelster, David; Merbold, Lutz; Goopy, John; Rufino, Mariana; Rosenstock, Todd; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2017-04-01

Few field studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from African agricultural systems, resulting in high uncertainty for national GHG inventories. This lack of data is particularly noticeable in smallholder farms in sub-Saharan Africa, where low inputs and minimal management are common. We examined the GHG emissions from soils and manure for typical, Kenyan smallholder farms for the duration of one year. Cumulative annual fluxes were low, ranging from -6.0 to 2.4 kg CH4-C ha-1 and -0.1 to 1.8 kg N2O-N ha-1. Management intensity of the plots did not result in differences in annual GHG fluxes measured, likely because of the low fertilizer input rates (< 20 kg N ha-1yr-1). Furthermore, mean CH4 and N2O emissions from manure from two breeds of cattle deposited on rangelands during the dry season were also low, ranging from 95 - 302 mg CH4-C kg DM-1 and 8.3 - 11.5 mg N2O-N kg DM-1. These rates would correspond to emission factors of between 87 and 246 g CH4-C head-1 year-1 and 0.1 - 0.2% of applied N, which were lower than IPCC emission factors; (from 13 to 40% and 10 to 20% of IPCC emission factors for CH4 and N2O respectively).

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, B.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) has become a central element of national and international assessments of climate change. The CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6) model experiments will be the foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), scheduled for publication around 2021. To increase the fidelity of the IPCC AR6, the CMIP6 model experiments need rigorous evaluation. The "Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects" (Obs4MIPs) collects, organizes and publishes various well-established satellite data sets for CMIP model evaluation. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), the NASA's temperature and humidity sounding system on the Aqua satellite, has provided over a decade-long high-quality tropospheric temperature and moisture sounding data. Under the current support of the NASA Data for Operation and Assessment (NDOA) program, we are generating and publishing the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set including the monthly mean tropospheric air temperature, specific humidity, and relative humidity profiles from September 2002 to September 2016. This will provide the latest AIRS data in Obs4MIPs and assist the climate modeling community to better use the AIRS data for CMIP (including CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6) model evaluation. In this presentation, we will discuss the AIRS Obs4MIPs V2 data set and their possible use for CMIP6 climate model evaluation.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

A Harder Rain is Going to Fall: Challenges for Actionable Projections of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological extremes are projected to increase in both severity and frequency as the Earth's surface continues to warm in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. These extremes will directly affect the availability and reliability of water and other critical resources. The most comprehensive suite of multi-model projections has been assembled under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) and assessed in the Fifth Assessment (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order for these projections to be actionable, the projections should exhibit consistency and fidelity down to the local length and timescales required for operational resource planning, for example the scales relevant for water allocations from a major watershed. In this presentation, we summarize the length and timescales relevant for resource planning and then use downscaled versions of the IPCC simulations over the contiguous United States to address three questions. First, over what range of scales is there quantitative agreement between the simulated historical extremes and in situ measurements? Second, does this range of scales in the historical and future simulations overlap with the scales relevant for resource management and adaptation? Third, does downscaling enhance the degree of multi-model consistency at scales smaller than the typical global model resolution? We conclude by using these results to highlight requirements for further model development to make the next generation of models more useful for planning purposes.

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen E.; Charlson, Robert J.; Kahn, Ralph A.; Ogren, John A.; Rodhe, Henning

2010-01-01

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE PAGES

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

2016-04-28

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Korea's transition to the IPCC : Introduction of BAT-based Integrated ACT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Daegyun; Yoo, Heungmin; Kim, Younglan

2017-04-01

Recently, environmental pollution concerns have been increased in Korea more than ever before. So, The Ministry of Environment and the National Institute of Environmental Research(NIER) in Korea has forged a policy that can effectively reduce the environmental pollutants emitted from each business sectors. This policy nicknamed the "Integrated Environmental Management Act" will be implemented from January 2017. It is to consolidate the management method of each environment media (such as water/atmosphere, etc.) and discharge facility into single authorization and/or permission system for entire installation. In particular, it is the environmental management system in according to the "Act on Integrated Management of Environmental Pollution Facilities" that encourages active participation of companies, grant customized emission permits by considering the ambient environmental condition as well as best available techniques, and review the permitted items periodically. Throughout this optimal management policy, we expect the minimization of the environmental effect by reducing the production and emission of pollutants. The integrated environmental management system is a scientific and advanced whole new management system and it is also a policy that considers the environment and human health effect in a synthetically, and minimizes the emission of pollutants by applying the best available techniques. In this presentation, we will talk about the Korea's transition stage to IPCC(integrated pollution prevention and control) and introduce the whole new Integrated Environmental Management system of Korea.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Krauss, Ken W; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J; Kirwan, Matthew L; Stagg, Camille L; Nestlerode, Janet A; Russell, Marc J; From, Andrew S; Spivak, Amanda C; Dantin, Darrin D; Harvey, James E; Almario, Alejandro E

2017-04-21

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr -1 ), with surface elevation change of 4.2-11.0 mm yr -1 compared with 1.5-7.2 mm yr -1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Created mangrove wetlands store belowground carbon and surface elevation change enables them to adjust to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krauss, Ken W.; Cormier, Nicole; Osland, Michael J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Stagg, Camille L.; Nestlerode, Janet A.; Russell, Marc J.; From, Andrew; Spivak, Amanda C.; Dantin, Darrin D.; Harvey, James E.; Almario, Alejandro E.

2017-01-01

Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

The Roadmap to Climate Stability Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Accounting Protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.

2016-12-01

The Climate Stabilization Council recognizes the severe impact consequences of a rapidly warming climate and the challenging mitigation requirements of reaching the COP21 aspirational goal of +1.5°C. To address this challenge, we have used the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which presents new methods for projecting increases in average global temperature and new metrics to update global climate accounting protocols. The updated protocols allow us to assess the full spectrum of climate mitigation projects available and identify the ability of specific projects to achieve various climate warming targets at different points in time. This assessment demonstrates the need to continue focusing on reducing and removing the major sources of overall excess heat linked to CO2, methane, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone. These findings also highlight the importance of solar radiation management (SRM) and earth radiation management (ERM) to achieve climate stabilization in the near-term. By integrating advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) into the protocols, unintended environmental or human health impact trade-offs that may be associated with deployment of specific mitigation options can be identified. These protocols have also been introduced for standardization to the international ISO 14000 process. We conclude by describing the Climate Stabilization Council's role in establishing a platform for the scientific research, evaluation, and implementation of the identified climate mitigation projects.

Report on Climate Change E-mails Exonerates Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2010-07-01

A new report commissioned by the University of East Anglia (UEA) has largely exonerated climate scientists from the university's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) who wrote a number of controversial e-mail messages that were made public without authorization in November 2009. Critics have argued that the e-mails indicate that scientists had tampered with scientific data—including data related to land station temperatures and temperature reconstructions from tree ring analysis—subverted the peer review process, misused the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and withheld data from critics. At a 7 July news conference to release the “Independent climate change e-mails review,” report chair Muir Russell said, “Climate science is a matter of such global importance that the highest standards of honesty, rigor, and openness are needed in its conduct. On the specific allegations made against the behavior of CRU scientists, we find that their rigor and honesty as scientists are not in doubt.” He continued, “In addition, we do not find that their behavior has prejudiced the balance of advice given to policy makers. In particular, we did not find any evidence of behavior that might undermine the conclusions of the IPCC assessments.” Russell is chair of the Judicial Appointments Board for Scotland and formerly was principal and vice-chancellor of the University of Glasgow, in Scotland.

Enhanced macroboring and depressed calcification drive net dissolution at high-CO2 coral reefs.

PubMed

Enochs, Ian C; Manzello, Derek P; Kolodziej, Graham; Noonan, Sam H C; Valentino, Lauren; Fabricius, Katharina E

2016-11-16

Ocean acidification (OA) impacts the physiology of diverse marine taxa; among them corals that create complex reef framework structures. Biological processes operating on coral reef frameworks remain largely unknown from naturally high-carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) ecosystems. For the first time, we independently quantified the response of multiple functional groups instrumental in the construction and erosion of these frameworks (accretion, macroboring, microboring, and grazing) along natural OA gradients. We deployed blocks of dead coral skeleton for roughly 2 years at two reefs in Papua New Guinea, each experiencing volcanically enriched CO 2 , and employed high-resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) to create three-dimensional models of changing skeletal structure. OA conditions were correlated with decreased calcification and increased macroboring, primarily by annelids, representing a group of bioeroders not previously known to respond to OA. Incubation of these blocks, using the alkalinity anomaly methodology, revealed a switch from net calcification to net dissolution at a pH of roughly 7.8, within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) predictions for global ocean waters by the end of the century. Together these data represent the first comprehensive experimental study of bioerosion and calcification from a naturally high-CO 2 reef ecosystem, where the processes of accelerated erosion and depressed calcification have combined to alter the permanence of this essential framework habitat. © 2016 The Authors.

Enhanced macroboring and depressed calcification drive net dissolution at high-CO2 coral reefs

PubMed Central

Manzello, Derek P.; Kolodziej, Graham; Noonan, Sam H. C.; Valentino, Lauren; Fabricius, Katharina E.

2016-01-01

Ocean acidification (OA) impacts the physiology of diverse marine taxa; among them corals that create complex reef framework structures. Biological processes operating on coral reef frameworks remain largely unknown from naturally high-carbon-dioxide (CO2) ecosystems. For the first time, we independently quantified the response of multiple functional groups instrumental in the construction and erosion of these frameworks (accretion, macroboring, microboring, and grazing) along natural OA gradients. We deployed blocks of dead coral skeleton for roughly 2 years at two reefs in Papua New Guinea, each experiencing volcanically enriched CO2, and employed high-resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) to create three-dimensional models of changing skeletal structure. OA conditions were correlated with decreased calcification and increased macroboring, primarily by annelids, representing a group of bioeroders not previously known to respond to OA. Incubation of these blocks, using the alkalinity anomaly methodology, revealed a switch from net calcification to net dissolution at a pH of roughly 7.8, within Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) predictions for global ocean waters by the end of the century. Together these data represent the first comprehensive experimental study of bioerosion and calcification from a naturally high-CO2 reef ecosystem, where the processes of accelerated erosion and depressed calcification have combined to alter the permanence of this essential framework habitat. PMID:27852802

Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms.

PubMed

Friocourt, Y F; Skogen, M; Stolte, W; Albretsen, J

2012-01-01

Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

PubMed

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

2012-02-01

In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and mitigation strategies, and for making concrete assessments about biological and environmental changes.

From up to date climate and ocean evidence with updated UN emissions projections, the time is now to recommend an immediate massive effort on CO2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Peter

2017-04-01

This paper provides further compelling evidence for 'an immediate, massive effort to control CO2 emissions, stopped by mid-century' (Cai, Lenton & Lontzek, 2016). Atmospheric CO2 which is above 405 ppm (actual and trend) still accelerating, despite flat emissions since 2014, with a 2015 >3ppm unprecedented spike in Earth history (A. Glikson),is on the worst case IPCC scenario. Atmospheric methane is increasing faster than its past 20-year rate, almost on the worst-case IPCC AR5 scenario (Global Carbon Project, 2016). Observed effects of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution are increasing faster. This includes long-lived atmospheric GHG concentrations, radiative forcing, surface average warming, Greenland ice sheet melting, Arctic daily sea ice anomaly, ocean heat (and rate of going deeper), ocean acidification, and ocean de-oxygenation. The atmospheric GHG concentration of 485 ppm CO2 eq (WMO, 2015) commits us to 'about 2°C' equilibrium (AR5). 2°C by 2100 would require 'substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades' (AR5). Instead, the May 2016 UN update on 'intended' national emissions targets under the Paris Agreement projects global emissions will be 16% higher by 2030 and the November 2016 International Energy Agency update projects energy-related CO2 eq emissions will be 30% higher by 2030, leading to 'around 2.7°C by 2100 and above 3°C thereafter'. Climate change feedback will be positive this century and multiple large vulnerable sources of amplifying feedback exist (AR5). 'Extensive tree mortality and widespread forest die-back linked to drought and temperature stress have been documented on all vegetated continents' (AR5). 'Recent studies suggest a weakening of the land sink, further amplifying atmospheric growth of CO2' (WMO, 2016). Under all but the best-case IPCC AR5 scenario, surface temperature is projected to increase above 2°C by 2100, which is above 3°C (equilibrium) after 2100, with ocean acidification still increasing at 2100. Ocean heat is increasing under all scenarios at 2100. For all producing regions 'With or without adaptation, negative impacts on average crop yields become likely from the 2030s' (AR5). Crop models do not capture all adverse effects. The climate change of 2030 is practically locked in. NASA NEX downscaled daily maximum temperature projections at 1.5°C are incompatible with today's crop yields in major agricultural regions. Climate-change-related impacts from extreme events are high at 1.5°C (AR5) and add to modeled crop declines. 'Some unique and threatened systems are already at risk from climate change (high confidence)' with 'risk of severe consequences' higher with warming of around 1.5°C (AR5). At today's surface temperature increase, 'risks associated with tipping points become moderate' and 'increase disproportionately' as temperature increases above 1.5°C (AR5). According to mitigation projections, global emissions would decline forthwith for a better than 66% chance of a 2°C limit by 2100 (over 3°C after 2100). Failure to do so would risk the future sustainability of civilization and the human population. The IPCC does not make recommendations so this falls on scientists. By recommending immediate (emergency) massive action on CO2, the science community would make a momentous contribution to the future of humanity.

Quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wastewater treatment plants using a ground-based remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delre, Antonio; Mønster, Jacob; Scheutz, Charlotte

2016-04-01

The direct release of nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) from wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) is important because it contributes to the global greenhouse gases (GHGs) release and strongly effects the WWTP carbon footprint. Biological nitrogen removal technologies could increase the direct emission of N2O (IPCC, 2006), while CH4 losses are of environmental, economic and safety concern. Currently, reporting of N2O and CH4 emissions from WWTPs are performed mainly using methods suggested by IPCC which are not site specific (IPCC, 2006). The dynamic tracer dispersion method (TDM), a ground based remote sensing approach implemented at DTU Environment, was demonstrated to be a novel and successful tool for full-scale CH4 and N2O quantification from WWTPs. The method combines a controlled release of tracer gas from the facility with concentration measurements downwind of the plant (Mønster et al., 2014; Yoshida et al., 2014). TDM in general is based on the assumption that a tracer gas released at an emission source, in this case a WWTP, disperses into the atmosphere in the same way as the GHG emitted from process units. Since the ratio of their concentrations remains constant along their atmospheric dispersion, the GHG emission rate can be calculated using the following expression when the tracer gas release rate is known: EGHG=Qtr*(CGHG/Ctr)*(MWGHG/MWtr) EGHG is the GHG emission in mass per time, Qtr is the tracer release in mass per time, CGHG and Ctr are the concentrations measured downwind in parts per billion subtracted of their background values and integrated over the whole plume, and MWGHG and MWtr are the molar weights of GHG and tracer gas respectively (Mønster et al. 2014). In this study, acetylene (C2H2) was used as tracer. Downwind plume concentrations were measured driving along transects with two cavity ring down spectrometers (Yoshida et al., 2014). TDM was successfully applied in different seasons at several Scandinavian WWTPs characterized by different capacity, process unit technologies and locations. The method was applied at plants with different combination of nitrogen removal technologies and sewage sludge treatment. According to the plant capacity and technologies, quantified emissions ranged in the following intervals: from 0.7 to 3.4 kg N2O/h and from 1.1 to 17.6 kg CH4/h. In addition to quantifying the whole emission from the facilities, main sources in the plants were identified. While CH4 was generally emitted from sludge treatment areas, N2O was detected from nitrogen removal technologies both in the main stream and in the side treatment. Process units like biosolids storage and aeration tanks were the only units releasing both GHGs, although in different magnitude. References IPCC, 2006. Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 5 - Waste. Mønster, J., Samuelsson, J., Kjeldsen, P., Rella, C.W., Scheutz, C., 2014. Quantifying methane emission from fugitive sources by combining tracer release and downwind measurements - a sensitivity analysis based on multiple field surveys. Waste Manag. 34, 1416-28. doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2014.03.025 Yoshida, H., Mønster, J., Scheutz, C., 2014. Plant-integrated measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from a municipal wastewater treatment plant. Water Res. 1, 108-118. doi:10.1016/j.watres.2014.05.014

Rainfall and runoff variability in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billi, Paolo; Fazzini, Massimiliano; Tadesse Alemu, Yonas; Ciampalini, Rossano

2014-05-01

Rainfall and river flow variability have been deeply investigated and and the impact of climate change on both is rather well known in Europe (EEA, 2012) or in other industrialized countries. Reports of international organizations (IPCC, 2012) and the scientific literature provide results and outlooks that were found contrasting and spatially incoherent (Manton et al., 2001; Peterson et al., 2002; Griffiths et al., 2003; Herath and Ratnayake, 2004) or weakened by limitation of data quality and quantity. According to IPCC (2012), in East Africa precipitation there are contrasting regional and seasonal variations and trends, though Easterling et al. (2000) and Seleshi and Camberlin (2006) report decreasing trends in heavy precipitation over parts of Ethiopia during the period 1965-2002. Literature on the impact of climate change on river flow is scarce in Africa and IPCC Technical Paper VI (IPCC, 2008) concluded that no evidence, based on instrumental records, has been found for a climate-driven globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades (Rosenzweig et al., 2007), though increases in runoff and increased risk of flood events in East Africa are expected. Some papers have faced issues regarding rainfall and river flow variability in Ethiopia (e.g. Seleshi and Demaree, 1995; Osman and Sauerborn, 2002; Seleshi and Zanke, 2004; Meze-Hausken, 2004; Korecha and Barnston, 2006; Cheung et al., 2008) but their investigations are commonly geographically limited or used a small number of rain and flow gauges with the most recent data bound to the beginning of the last decade. In this study an attempt to depict rainfall and river flow variability, considering the longer as possible time series for the largest as possible number of meteo-stations and flow gauge evenly distributed across Ethiopia, is presented. 25 meteo-stations and 21 flow gauges with as much as possible continuous data records were selected. The length of the time series ranges between 35 to 50 and 9 to 49 years for rainfall and river flow, respectively. In order to improve the poor linear correlation model to describe rainfall gradient with altitude a simple topographic parameter is introduced capable to better depict the spatial variability of annual rainfall and its coefficient of variation. The small rains (Belg) were found to be much more unpredictable than the long, monsoon-type rains (Kiremt) and hence much more out of phase with the variation of annual precipitation amount that is significantly influenced by the Kiremt rains. In order to investigate the long term trends, rainfall anomalies were calculated as Z score for annual, Belg and Kiremt precipitation for all the stations and average values are calculated and plotted against time. The three Z trend lines obtained show no marked deviation from the mean as only an almost negligible decreasing trend is observed. Rainfall intensity in 24 hours is analyzed and the trend line of the maximum intensity averaged over the maximum value of each year recorded at each meteo-station is constructed. These data indicate a general decrease in daily rainfall intensity across Ethiopia with clear exceptions in a few selected areas. The same procedure, based on the Z scores, used to analyze rainfall variability is applied also to the river flow data and a similar result is obtained. If compared with rainfall, annual runoff shows a much wider range of variation among the study rivers. This issue is discussed and possible explanations are presented.

CHASER: An Innovative Satellite Mission Concept to Measure the Effects of Aerosols on Clouds and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renno, N.; Williams, E.; Rosenfeld, D.; Fischer, D.; Fischer, J.; Kremic, T.; Agrawal, A.; Andreae, M.; Bierbaum, R.; Blakeslee, R.; Boerner, A.; Bowles, N.; Christian, H.; Dunion, J.; Horvath, A.; Huang, X.; Khain, A.; Kinne, S.; Lemos, M.-C.; Penner, J.

2012-04-01

The formation of cloud droplets on aerosol particles, technically known as the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), is the fundamental process driving the interactions of aerosols with clouds and precipitation. Knowledge of these interactions is foundational to our understanding of weather and climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Decadal Survey (NRC 2007) indicate that the uncertainty in how clouds adjust to aerosol perturbations dominates the uncertainty in the overall quantification of the radiative forcing attributable to human activities. The Clouds, Hazards, and Aerosols Survey for Earth Researchers (CHASER) mission concept responds to the IPCC and Decadal Survey concerns by studying the activation of CCN and their interactions with clouds and storms. CHASER proposes to revolutionize our understanding of the interactions of aerosols with clouds by making the first global measurements of the fundamental physical entity linking them: activated cloud condensation nuclei. The CHASER mission was conceptualized to measure all quantities necessary for determining the interactions of aerosols with clouds and storms. Measurements by current satellites allow the determination of crude profiles of cloud particle size but not of the activated CCN that seed them. CHASER uses a new technique (Freud et al. 2011; Rosenfeld et al. 2012) and high-heritage instruments to produce the first global maps of activated CCN and the properties of the clouds associated with them. CHASER measures the CCN concentration and cloud thermodynamic forcing simultaneously, allowing their effects to be distinguished. Changes in the behavior of a group of weather systems in which only one of the quantities varies (a partial derivative of the intensity with the desirable quantity) allow the determination of each effect statistically. The high uncertainties of current climate predictions limit their much-needed use in decision-making. CHASER mitigates this problem by establishing a Data Application Center for conducting social science research focused on understanding the best ways to use, transfer, and communicate mission data to decision-makers. The CHASER Data Application Center supports the visions of the National Research Council and the Decadal Survey for an integrated program of observations from space that secures practical benefits for humankind by developing data products for assessing risks due to severe weather and climate change.

The Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue Simulated by IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs: Upper Ocean Heat Budget and Feedback Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-15

ET AL .: THE PACIFIC COLD TONGUE BIAS ANALYSIS C05024 circulation, which intensifies the surface easterly winds over the Pacific Basin, further...productivity, and in carbon cycling since it is the major oceanic source of C02 for the atmosphere [Field et al , 1998; Calvo et al , 2011]. Large SST anomalies...used for climate predictions and projec- tions [Neelin et al , 1992; Mechoso et al , 1995; Delecluse et al , 1998; Laufet al , 2001; Davey

An Assessment of Hydrogen as a Means to Implement the United States Navy’s Renewable Energy Initiative

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

pH of Household Items and Associated Effect on Fish , after [5] 5 As the world’s average surface temperature increases and continues to negatively... Effect on Fish , after [5] ........... 4  Figure 4.  Historical and Predicted Sea Level Change, after [10] ......................... 6  Figure 5...IPCC states in a 2014 climate change report [4] that, “[t]he global average consumption of fish and other products from fisheries and aquaculture in

Coastal wetlands and global change: overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guntenspergen, G.R.; Vairin, B.; Burkett, V.R.

1997-01-01

The potential impacts of climate change are of great practical concern to those interested in coastal wetland resources. Among the areas of greatest risk in the United States are low-lying coastal habitats with easily eroded substrates which occur along the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast Atlantic coasts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have identified coastal wetlands as ecosystems most vulnerable to direct, large-scale impacts of climate change, primarily because of their sensitivity to increases in sea-level rise.

FY 2011 4th Quarter Metric: Estimate of Future Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koch, D

2011-09-21

The global and annual mean aerosol direct and indirect effects, relative to 1850 conditions, estimated from CESM simulations are 0.02 W m-2 and -0.39 W m-2, respectively, for emissions in year 2100 under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. The indirect effect is much smaller than that for 2000 emissions because of much smaller SO2 emissions in 2100; the direct effects are small due to compensation between warming by black carbon and cooling by sulfate.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dynamism of household carbon emissions (HCEs) from rural and urban regions of northern and southern China.

PubMed

Maraseni, Tek Narayan; Qu, Jiansheng; Yue, Bian; Zeng, Jingjing; Maroulis, Jerry

2016-10-01

China contributes 23 % of global carbon emissions, of which 26 % originate from the household sector. Due to vast variations in both climatic conditions and the affordability and accessibility of fuels, household carbon emissions (HCEs) differ significantly across China. This study compares HCEs (per person) from urban and rural regions in northern China with their counterparts in southern China. Annual macroeconomic data for the study period 2005 to 2012 were obtained from Chinese government sources, whereas the direct HCEs for different types of fossil fuels were obtained using the IPCC reference approach, and indirect HCEs were calculated by input-output analysis. Results suggest that HCEs from urban areas are higher than those from rural areas. Regardless of the regions, there is a similarity in per person HCEs in urban areas, but the rural areas of northern China had significantly higher HCEs than those from southern China. The reasons for the similarity between urban areas and differences between rural areas and the percentage share of direct and indirect HCEs from different sources are discussed. Similarly, the reasons and solutions to why decarbonising policies are working in urban areas but not in rural areas are discussed.

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

New directions: Mineral dust and ozone - Heterogeneous chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandran, S.

2015-04-01

Aerosols, the tiny solid or liquid particles suspended in air and produced from natural sources and anthropogenic activities, continue to contribute the largest uncertainty to radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013). Aerosol particles give rise to radiative forcing directly through scattering and absorption of solar and infrared radiation in the atmosphere. Aerosols also give rise to indirect radiative forcing by modifying the cloud optical properties and lifetimes. Among the aerosol species mineral dust and black carbon cause a warming (positive forcing) while sulphate and sea salt cause a cooling (negative forcing) of the Earth-atmosphere system. In tropics and sub-tropics mineral dust is a major contributor to aerosol loading and optical thickness. The global source strength of dust aerosol varies significantly on spatial and temporal scales. The source regions of dust are mainly deserts, dry lake beds, and semi-arid regions, in addition to drier regions where vegetation has been reduced or soil surfaces that are disturbed by man made activities. Anthropogenic activities mainly related to agriculture such as harvesting, ploughing, overgrazing, and cement production and transport also produce mineral dust. An estimated 2500 terragram (Tg, 1012 g) of mineral dust is emitted into the atmosphere per year, and dominates the aerosol mass over continental regions in south Asia and China accounting for ∼35% of the total aerosol mass (IPCC, 2013). In India, dust is prevalent throughout the north and western India during the year and peaks during premonsoon season.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Echinoids of the Kerguelen Plateau - occurrence data and environmental setting for past, present, and future species distribution modelling.

PubMed

Guillaumot, Charlène; Martin, Alexis; Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé; Eléaume, Marc; Saucède, Thomas

2016-01-01

The present dataset provides a case study for species distribution modelling (SDM) and for model testing in a poorly documented marine region. The dataset includes spatially-explicit data for echinoid (Echinodermata: Echinoidea) distribution. Echinoids were collected during oceanographic campaigns led around the Kerguelen Plateau (+63°/+81°E; -46°/-56°S) since 1872. In addition to the identification of collection specimens from historical cruises, original data from the recent campaigns POKER II (2010) and PROTEKER 2 to 4 (2013-2015) are also provided. In total, five families, ten genera, and 12 echinoid species are recorded in the region of the Kerguelen Plateau. The dataset is complemented with environmental descriptors available and relevant for echinoid ecology and SDM. The environmental data was compiled from different sources and was modified to suit the geographic extent of the Kerguelen Plateau, using scripts developed with the R language (R Core Team 2015). Spatial resolution was set at a common 0.1° pixel resolution. Mean seafloor and sea surface temperatures, salinity and their amplitudes, all derived from the World Ocean Database (Boyer et al. 2013) are made available for the six following decades: 1955-1964, 1965-1974, 1975-1984, 1985-1994, 1995-2004, 2005-2012. Future projections are provided for several parameters: they were modified from the Bio-ORACLE database (Tyberghein et al. 2012). They are based on three IPCC scenarii (B1, AIB, A2) for years 2100 and 2200 (IPCC, 4 th report).

Biomass expansion factor and root-to-shoot ratio for Pinus in Brazil.

PubMed

Sanquetta, Carlos R; Corte, Ana Pd; da Silva, Fernando

2011-09-24

The Biomass Expansion Factor (BEF) and the Root-to-Shoot Ratio (R) are variables used to quantify carbon stock in forests. They are often considered as constant or species/area specific values in most studies. This study aimed at showing tree size and age dependence upon BEF and R and proposed equations to improve forest biomass and carbon stock. Data from 70 sample Pinus spp. grown in southern Brazil trees in different diameter classes and ages were used to demonstrate the correlation between BEF and R, and forest inventory data, such as DBH, tree height and age. Total dry biomass, carbon stock and CO2 equivalent were simulated using the IPCC default values of BEF and R, corresponding average calculated from data used in this study, as well as the values estimated by regression equations. The mean values of BEF and R calculated in this study were 1.47 and 0.17, respectively. The relationship between BEF and R and the tree measurement variables were inversely related with negative exponential behavior. Simulations indicated that use of fixed values of BEF and R, either IPCC default or current average data, may lead to unreliable estimates of carbon stock inventories and CDM projects. It was concluded that accounting for the variations in BEF and R and using regression equations to relate them to DBH, tree height and age, is fundamental in obtaining reliable estimates of forest tree biomass, carbon sink and CO2 equivalent.

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Analysis of potential for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in municipal solid waste in Brazil, in the state and city of Rio de Janeiro

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loureiro, S.M., E-mail: saulo@lima.coppe.ufrj.br; Rovere, E.L.L., E-mail: emilio@ppe.ufrj.br; Mahler, C.F., E-mail: mahler0503@yahoo.com

2013-05-15

Highlights: ► We constructed future scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases in waste. ► Was used the IPCC methodology for calculating emission inventories. ► We calculated the costs of abatement for emissions reduction in landfill waste. ► The results were compared to Brazil, state and city of Rio de Janeiro. ► The higher the environmental passive, the greater the possibility of use of biogas. - Abstract: This paper examines potential changes in solid waste policies for the reduction in GHG for the country of Brazil and one of its major states and cities, Rio de Janeiro, from 2005 to 2030.more » To examine these policy options, trends in solid waste quantities and associated GHG emissions are derived. Three alternative policy scenarios are evaluated in terms of effectiveness, technology, and economics and conclusions posited regarding optimal strategies for Brazil to implement. These scenarios are been building on the guidelines for national inventories of GHG emissions (IPCC, 2006) and adapted to Brazilian states and municipalities’ boundaries. Based on the results, it is possible to say that the potential revenue from products of solid waste management is more than sufficient to transform the current scenario in this country into one of financial and environmental gains, where the negative impacts of climate change have created a huge opportunity to expand infrastructure for waste management.« less

Nitrous oxide emissions in the Shanghai river network: implications for the effects of urban sewage and IPCC methodology.

PubMed

Yu, Zhongjie; Deng, Huanguang; Wang, Dongqi; Ye, Mingwu; Tan, Yongjie; Li, Yangjie; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

2013-10-01

Global nitrogen (N) enrichment has resulted in increased nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission that greatly contributes to climate change and stratospheric ozone destruction, but little is known about the N(2)O emissions from urban river networks receiving anthropogenic N inputs. We examined N(2)O saturation and emission in the Shanghai city river network, covering 6300 km(2), over 27 months. The overall mean saturation and emission from 87 locations was 770% and 1.91 mg N(2)O-N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) saturation did not exhibit a clear seasonality, but the temporal pattern was co-regulated by both water temperature and N loadings. Rivers draining through urban and suburban areas receiving more sewage N inputs had higher N(2)O saturation and emission than those in rural areas. Regression analysis indicated that water ammonium (NH(4)(+)) and dissolved oxygen (DO) level had great control on N(2)O production and were better predictors of N(2)O emission in urban watershed. About 0.29 Gg N(2)O-N yr(-1) N(2)O was emitted from the Shanghai river network annually, which was about 131% of IPCC's prediction using default emission values. Given the rapid progress of global urbanization, more study efforts, particularly on nitrification and its N(2)O yielding, are needed to better quantify the role of urban rivers in global riverine N(2)O emission. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Estimating the Contrail Impact on Climate Using the UK Met Office Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.

2008-12-01

With air travel predicted to increase over the coming century, the emissions associated with air traffic are expected to have a significant warming effect on climate. According to current best estimates, an important contribution comes from contrails. However, as reported by the IPCC fourth assessment report, these current best estimates still have a high uncertainty. The development and validation of contrail parameterizations in global climate models is therefore very important. This current study develops a contrail parameterization within the UK Met Office Climate Model. Using this new parameterization, we estimate that for the 2002 traffic, the global mean annual contrail coverage is approximately 0.11%, a value which in good agreement with several other estimates. The corresponding contrail radiative forcing (RF) is calculated to be approximately 4 and 6 mWm-2 in all-sky and clear-sky conditions, respectively. These values lie within the lower end of the RF range reported by the latest IPCC assessment. The relatively high cloud masking effect on contrails observed by our parameterization compared with other studies is investigated, and a possible cause for this difference is suggested. The effect of the diurnal variations of air traffic on both contrail coverage and contrail RF is also investigated. The new parameterization is also employed in thirty-year slab-ocean model runs in order to give one of the first insights into contrail effects on daily temperature range and the climate impact of contrails.

Analysis of uncertainties in the estimates of nitrous oxide and methane emissions in the UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, Alice E.; Glendining, Margaret J.; Bellamy, Pat; Misselbrook, Tom; Gilhespy, Sarah; Rivas Casado, Monica; Hulin, Adele; van Oijen, Marcel; Whitmore, Andrew P.

2014-01-01

The UK's greenhouse gas inventory for agriculture uses a model based on the IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods to estimate the emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture. The inventory calculations are disaggregated at country level (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Before now, no detailed assessment of the uncertainties in the estimates of emissions had been done. We used Monte Carlo simulation to do such an analysis. We collated information on the uncertainties of each of the model inputs. The uncertainties propagate through the model and result in uncertainties in the estimated emissions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that in England and Scotland the uncertainty in the emission factor for emissions from N inputs (EF1) affected uncertainty the most, but that in Wales and Northern Ireland, the emission factor for N leaching and runoff (EF5) had greater influence. We showed that if the uncertainty in any one of these emission factors is reduced by 50%, the uncertainty in emissions of nitrous oxide reduces by 10%. The uncertainty in the estimate for the emissions of methane emission factors for enteric fermentation in cows and sheep most affected the uncertainty in methane emissions. When inventories are disaggregated (as that for the UK is) correlation between separate instances of each emission factor will affect the uncertainty in emissions. As more countries move towards inventory models with disaggregation, it is important that the IPCC give firm guidance on this topic.

New paleoclimatic database for the Iberian Peninsula since AD 1700 inferred from tree-ring records and documentary evidence: advances in temperature and drought variability reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Ernesto; Ángel Saz, Miguel; de Luis, Martín; Esper, Jan; Barriendos, Mariano; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Novak, Klemen; Longares, Luis Alberto; Martínez-del Castillo, Edurne; María Cuadrat, José

2017-04-01

A substantial increase of surface air temperatures in the upcoming decades, particularly significant in the Mediterranean basin, has been reported by the IPCC (IPCC, 2013). It is therefore particularly important to study past climate extremes and variability in this region, which will in turn support the accuracy of future climate scenarios. Yet, our knowledge of past climate variability and trends is limited by the shortage of instrumental data prior to the twentieth century, which prompts to the need of discovering new sources with which to reconstruct past climate. We here present a new paleoclimatic database for the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula based on tree-ring records, documentary evidence and instrumental data. The network includes 774 tree-ring, earlywood and latewood width series from Pinus uncinata, Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra trees in the Pyrenees and Iberian Range reaching back to AD 1510. Three reconstructions are developed using these samples; an annual drought reconstruction since AD 1694, a summer drought reconstruction since AD 1734, and a maximum temperature reconstruction since AD 1604. Additionally, the documentary records from 16 locations in the Ebro Valley are examined focusing on climate-related 'rogations'. We differentiated three types of rogations, considering the importance of religious acts, to identify the severity of drought and pluvial events. Finally, an attempt to explore the links between documentary and tree-ring based reconstructions is presented.

Profile of heating rate due to aerosols using lidar and skyradiometer in SKYNET Hefei site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Liu, D.; Xie, C.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols have a significant impact on climate due to their important role in modifying atmosphere energy budget. On global scale, the direct radiative forcing is estimated to be in the range of -0.9 to -0.1 Wm-2 for aerosols [1]. Yet, these estimates are subject to very large uncertainties because of uncertainties in spatial and temporal variations of aerosols. At local scales, as aerosol properties can vary spatially and temporally, radiative forcing due to aerosols can be also very different and it can exceed the global value by an order of magnitude. Hence, it is very important to investigate aerosol loading, properties, and radiative forcing due to them in detail on local regions of climate significance. Haze and dust events in Hefei, China are explored by Lidar and Skyradiometer. Aerosol optical properties including the AOD, SSA, AAE and size distribution are analysed by using the SKYRAD.PACK [2] and presented in this paper. Furthermore, the radiative forcing due to aerosols and the heating rate in the ATM are also calculated using SBDART model [3]. The results are shown that the vertical heating rate is tightly related to aerosol profile. References: 1. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basic. Contribution of Working Group I Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Solomon S, Qing D H, Manning M, et al. eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, N Y, USA. 2. Nakajima, T., G. Tonna, R. Rao, Y. Kaufman, and B. Holben, 1996: Use of sky brightness measurements from ground for remote sensing of particulate poly dispersions, Appl. Opt., 35, 2672-2686. 3. Ricchiazzi et al 1998. SBDART: a research and teaching software tool for plane-parallel radiative transfer in the Earth's atmosphere,Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,79,2101-2114.

An integrated framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change and developing adaptation strategies for coffee growing families in Mesoamerica.

PubMed

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions.

Climate impacts on agricultural biomass production in the CORDEX.be project context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Termonia, Piet; Willems, Patrick; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Marbaix, Philippe; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal; Fettweis, Xavier; De Ridder, Koen; Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Luyten, Patrick; Pottiaux, Eric

2016-04-01

The most important coordinated international effort to translate the IPCC-AR5 outcomes to regional climate modelling is the so-called "COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment" (CORDEX, http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/). CORDEX.be is a national initiative that aims at combining the Belgian climate and impact modelling research into a single network. The climate network structure is naturally imposed by the top-down data flow, from the four participating upper-air Regional Climate Modelling groups towards seven Local Impact Models (LIMs). In addition to the production of regional climate projections following the CORDEX guidelines, very high-resolution results are provided at convection-permitting resolutions of about 4 km across Belgium. These results are coupled to seven local-impact models with severity indices as output. A multi-model approach is taken that allows uncertainty estimation, a crucial aspect of climate projections for policy-making purposes. The down-scaled scenarios at 4 km resolution allow for impact assessment in different Belgian agro-ecological zones. Climate impacts on arable agriculture are quantified using REGCROP which is a regional dynamic agri-meteorological model geared towards modelling climate impact on biomass production of arable crops (Gobin, 2010, 2012). Results from previous work show that heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields. The interaction between these effects depend on the crop type and the field conditions. Root crops such as potato will experience increased drought stress particularly when the probability rises that sensitive crop stages coincide with dry spells. This may be aggravated when wet springs cause water logging in the field and delay planting dates. Despite lower summer precipitation projections for future climate in Belgium, winter cereal yield reductions due to drought stress will be smaller due to earlier maturity. Preliminary results will be presented using the new scenario runs for Belgium.

An Integrated Framework for Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and Developing Adaptation Strategies for Coffee Growing Families in Mesoamerica

PubMed Central

Baca, María; Läderach, Peter; Haggar, Jeremy; Schroth, Götz; Ovalle, Oriana

2014-01-01

The Mesoamerican region is considered to be one of the areas in the world most vulnerable to climate change. We developed a framework for quantifying the vulnerability of the livelihoods of coffee growers in Mesoamerica at regional and local levels and identify adaptation strategies. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concepts, vulnerability was defined as the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. To quantify exposure, changes in the climatic suitability for coffee and other crops were predicted through niche modelling based on historical climate data and locations of coffee growing areas from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Future climate projections were generated from 19 Global Circulation Models. Focus groups were used to identify nine indicators of sensitivity and eleven indicators of adaptive capacity, which were evaluated through semi-structured interviews with 558 coffee producers. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were then condensed into an index of vulnerability, and adaptation strategies were identified in participatory workshops. Models predict that all target countries will experience a decrease in climatic suitability for growing Arabica coffee, with highest suitability loss for El Salvador and lowest loss for Mexico. High vulnerability resulted from loss in climatic suitability for coffee production and high sensitivity through variability of yields and out-migration of the work force. This was combined with low adaptation capacity as evidenced by poor post harvest infrastructure and in some cases poor access to credit and low levels of social organization. Nevertheless, the specific contributors to vulnerability varied strongly among countries, municipalities and families making general trends difficult to identify. Flexible strategies for adaption are therefore needed. Families need the support of government and institutions specialized in impacts of climate change and strengthening of farmer organizations to enable the adjustment of adaptation strategies to local needs and conditions. PMID:24586328

SCOR Working Group 137: "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems": An introduction to the special issue of Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paerl, Hans W.; Yin, Kedong; O'Brien, Todd D.

2015-09-01

Phytoplankton form the base of most aquatic food webs and play a central role in assimilation and processing of carbon and nutrients, including nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon, iron and a wide range of trace elements (Reynolds, 2006). In the marine environment, estuarine and coastal ecosystems (jointly termed coastal here) are among the most productive, resourceful and dynamic habitats on Earth (Malone et al., 1999; Day et al., 2012). These ecosystems constitute only ∼10% of the global oceans' surface, but account for over 30% of its primary production (Day et al., 2012). They process vast amounts of nutrients, sediments, carbonaceous, and xenobiotic compounds generated in coastal watersheds, in which approximately 70% of the world's human population resides (Nixon, 1995; Vitousek et al., 1997; NOAA, 2013). Estuarine and coastal ecosystems are also strongly influenced by localized nutrient enrichment from coastal upwelling, with major impacts on the structure and function of phytoplankton communities and the food webs they support (Legendre and Rassoulzadegan, 2012; Paerl and Justić, 2012). In addition, introductions and invasions of exotic plant and animal species have led to significant "top down" mediated changes in phytoplankton community structure and function (Carlton, 1999; Thompson, 2005). Lastly, the coastal zone is the "front line" of climatically-induced environmental change, including warming, altered rainfall patterns, intensities and magnitudes (Trenberth, 2005; IPCC, 2012), which jointly impact phytoplankton community structure and function (Cloern and Jassby, 2012; Hall et al., 2013). The combined effects of these pressures translate into a myriad of changes in phytoplankton production and community structure along geomorphological and geographic gradients (Fig. 1), with cascading quantitative and qualitative impacts on biogeochemical cycling, food web structure and function, water quality and overall resourcefulness and sustainability of these systems (Cloern, 2001; Paerl et al., 2014).

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Genovart, Meritxell; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Oro, Daniel

2015-08-01

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Defence of the AR4’s Bayesian Approach to Quantifying Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M. A.

2009-12-01

The field of climate change research is a kimberlite pipe filled with philosophic diamonds waiting to be mined and analyzed by philosophers. Within the scientific literature on climate change, there is much philosophical dialogue regarding the methods and implications of climate studies. To this date, however, discourse regarding the philosophy of climate science has been confined predominately to scientific - rather than philosophical - investigations. In this paper, I hope to bring one such issue to the surface for explicit philosophical analysis: The purpose of this paper is to address a philosophical debate pertaining to the expressions of uncertainty in the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), which, as will be noted, has received significant attention in scientific journals and books, as well as sporadic glances from the popular press. My thesis is that the AR4’s Bayesian method of uncertainty analysis and uncertainty expression is justifiable on pragmatic grounds: it overcomes problems associated with vagueness, thereby facilitating communication between scientists and policy makers such that the latter can formulate decision analyses in response to the views of the former. Further, I argue that the most pronounced criticisms against the AR4’s Bayesian approach, which are outlined below, are misguided. §1 Introduction Central to AR4 is a list of terms related to uncertainty that in colloquial conversations would be considered vague. The IPCC attempts to reduce the vagueness of its expressions of uncertainty by calibrating uncertainty terms with numerical probability values derived from a subjective Bayesian methodology. This style of analysis and expression has stimulated some controversy, as critics reject as inappropriate and even misleading the association of uncertainty terms with Bayesian probabilities. [...] The format of the paper is as follows. The investigation begins (§2) with an explanation of background considerations relevant to the IPCC and its use of uncertainty expressions. It then (§3) outlines some general philosophical worries regarding vague expressions and (§4) relates those worries to the AR4 and its method of dealing with them, which is a subjective Bayesian probability analysis. The next phase of the paper (§5) examines the notions of ‘objective’ and ‘subjective’ probability interpretations and compares the IPCC’s subjective Bayesian strategy with a frequentist approach. It then (§6) addresses objections to that methodology, and concludes (§7) that those objections are wrongheaded.

Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinshausen, M.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, S. C. B.

2011-02-01

Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.

When could global warming reach 4°C?

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Collins, Matthew; Hemming, Deborah L; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Sanderson, Michael G

2011-01-13

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4-projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with 'FI' standing for 'fossil intensive'. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC's 'likely range'.

UV-VIS backscattering measurements on atmospheric particles mixture using polarization lidar coupled with numerical simulations and laboratory experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miffre, Alain; Francis, Mirvatte; Anselmo, Christophe; Rairoux, Patrick

2015-04-01

As underlined by the latest IPCC report [1], tropospheric aerosols are nowadays recognized as one of the main uncertainties affecting the Earth's climate and human health. This issue is not straightforward due to the complexity of these nanoparticles, which present a wide range of sizes, shapes and chemical composition, which vary as a function of altitude, especially in the troposphere, where strong temperature variations are encountered under different water vapour content (from 10 to 100 % relative humidity). During this oral presentation, I will first present the scientific context of this research. Then, the UV-VIS polarimeter instrument and the subsequent calibration procedure [2] will be presented, allowing quantitative evaluation of particles backscattering coefficients in the atmosphere. In this way, up to three-component particles external mixtures can be partitioned into their spherical and non-spherical components, by coupling UV-VIS depolarization lidar measurements with numerical simulations of backscattering properties specific to non-spherical particles, such as desert dust or sea-salt particles [3], by applying the T-matrix numerical code [4]. This combined methodology is new, as opposed to the traditional approach using the lidar and T-matrix methodologies separately. In complement, recent laboratory findings [5] and field applications [6] will be presented, enhancing the sensitivity of the UV-VIS polarimeter. References [1] IPCC report, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, (2013). [2] G. David, A. Miffre, B. Thomas, and P. Rairoux: "Sensitive and accurate dual-wavelength UV-VIS polarization detector for optical remote sensing of tropospheric aerosols," Appl. Phys. B 108, 197-216 (2012). [3] G. David, B. Thomas, T. Nousiainen, A. Miffre and P. Rairoux: "Retrieving simulated volcanic, desert dust, and sea-salt particle properties from two / three-component particle mixtures using UV-VIS polarization Lidar and T-matrix," Atmos. Chem Phys. 13, 6757-6776 (2013). [4] M.I. Mishchenko, L.D. Travis and A.A. Lacis: "Scattering, absorption and emission of Light by small particles," 3rd edition, Cambridge University Press UK, (2002). [5] G. David, B. Thomas, E. Coillet, A. Miffre, and P. Rairoux, Polarization-resolved exact light backscattering by an ensemble of particles in air, Opt. Exp., 21, No. 16, 18624-18639, (2013). [6] G. David, B. Thomas, Y. Dupart, B. D'Anna, C. George, A. Miffre and P. Rairoux, UV polarization lidar for remote sensing new particles formation in the atmosphere, Opt. Exp., 22, A1009-A1022, (2014).

Importance of impacts scenarios for the adaptation of agriculture to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zullo, J.; Macedo, C.; Pinto, H. S.; Assad, E. D.; Koga Vicente, A.

2012-12-01

The great possibility that the climate is already changing, and the most drastic way possible, increases the challenge of agricultural engineering, especially in environmentally vulnerable areas and in regions where agriculture has a high economic and social importance. Knowledge of potential impacts that may be caused by changes in water and thermal regimes in coming decades is increasingly strategic, as they allow the development of techniques to adapt agriculture to climate change and therefore minimizes the risk of undesirable impacts, for example, in food and nutritional security. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to describe a way to generate impacts scenarios caused by anomalies of precipitation and temperature in the definition of climate risk zoning of an agricultural crop very important in the tropics, such as the sugar cane, especially in central-southern Brazil, which is one of its main world producers. A key point here is the choice of the climate model to be used, considering that 23 different models were used in the fourth IPCC report published in 2007. The number and range of available models requires the definition of criteria for choosing the most suitable for the preparation of the impacts scenarios. One way proposed and used in this work is based on the definition of two groups of models according to 27 technical attributes of them. The clustering of 23 models in two groups, with a model representing each group (UKMO_HadCM3 and MIROC3.2_medres), assists the generation and comparison of impacts scenarios, making them more representative and useful. Another important aspect in the generation of impacts scenarios is the estimate of the relative importance of the anomalies of precipitation and temperature, which are the most commonly used. To assess the relative importance of the anomalies are generated scenarios considering an anomaly at a time and both together. The impacts scenarios for a high emission of greenhouse gases (A2), from 2010 to 2039, were more drastic for the sugar cane in central-southern Brazil using the UKMO_HadCM3 model than the MIROC3.2_medres model. These impacts scenarios, however, were less drastic than those generated for the arabica coffee in the same simulation conditions, reinforcing the increased vulnerability of this agricultural crop to climate change than the sugar cane. The inclusion of other restrictions on the climate risk zoning improves the quality of the generated scenarios and expands its usefulness for agricultural engineering.

Characterization of Air Plane Soot Surrogates using Raman spectroscopy and laser ablation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chazallon, Bertrand; Ortega, Ismael Kenneth; Ikhenazene, Raouf; Pirim, Claire; Carpentier, Yvain; Irimiea, Cornelia; Focsa, Cristian; Ouf, François-Xavier

2016-04-01

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion [1]. Aircraft exhaust plumes contain species (gases and soot particles) produced by the combustion of kerosene with ambient air in the combustion chamber of the engine. Soot particles emitted by air-planes produce persistent contrails in the upper troposphere in ice-supersaturated air masses that contribute to cloudiness and impact the radiative properties of the atmosphere. These aerosol-cloud interactions represent one of the largest sources of uncertainty in global climate models [2]. Though the formation of atmospheric ice particles has been studied for many years [3], there are still numerous opened questions on nucleation properties of soot particles [4], as the ice nucleation experiments showed a large spread in results depending on the nucleation mode chosen and origin of the soot produced. The reasons behind these discrepancies reside in the different physico-chemical properties (composition, structure) of soot particles produced in different conditions, e.g., with respect to fuel or combustion techniques. In this work, we use Raman microscopy (514 and 785 nm excitation wavelengths) and ablation techniques (Secondary Ions Mass Spectrometry, and Laser Desorption Mass Spectrometry) to characterize soot particle surrogates produced from a CAST generator (propane fuel, four different global equivalence ratios). They are produced as analogues of air-plane soot collected at different engine regimes (PowerJet SaM-146 turbofan) simulating a landing and take-off (LTO) cycle (MERMOSE project (http://mermose.onera.fr/)) [6]. The spectral parameters of the first-order Raman bands of these soot samples are analyzed using a de-convolution approach described by Sadezky et al. (2005) [5]. A systematic Raman analysis is carried out to select a number of parameters (laser wavelength, irradiance at sample, exposure time) that will alter the sample and the resulting spectra. If much literature discussed the most appropriate values of these parameters for analyzing graphite, coals, or amorphous carbon, only few works have dealt with soot, and no published studies have proposed the optimal parameter values for air-plane soot surrogates. In this work, we present the effect of three Raman parameters (laser wavelength, irradiance at sample, exposure time) on air-plane soot surrogates. The obtained results qualitatively indicate higher reactivity of soot samples collected in specific air-oxidation conditions. The surface chemical composition of the soot particles with special focus on PAHs are analyzed by two-Step (Desorption/Ionization) Laser Mass Spectrometry (L2MS) and Time of Fight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) techniques. In both techniques the spectra are obtained using positive polarity, which is better suited for detection of PAHs. A good agreement was obtained between the two techniques for the total PAH content of the analyzed samples. CAST samples are further processed by Raman spectroscopy to get complementary information on their structure. References [1] Lee et al., Atmos. Env. 44, 4678-4734, 2010 [2] IPCC 2014, Chap7: http://www.ipcc.ch [3] L. Dufour, Ciel et Terre, vol 82, p1-36, 1966 [4] C. Hoose & O. Möhler, Atmos.Chem.Phys. 12, 9817-9854, 2012 [5] Sadezky, A., Muckenhuber, H., Grothe, H., Niessner, R. and Pöschl U., (2005) Carbon, 43, 1731-1742. [6] Parent, Laffon, Marhaba, Ferry, Regier, Ortega, Chazallon, Carpentier, Focsa, (2016) Carbon (accepted)

Line by Line Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Absorption for Predicting Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. C.

2010-12-01

The anthropologic cause of global warming rests on the impact of CO2 on the green house effect. Previous derivations of the increase in the CO2 Forcing Function caused by doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 320 ppm to 640 ppm reported a value of 4 W/M2( Ramananathan,V,et al, J.of Geophysical Research Vol 84, C8,p4949, Aug.1979) This value leads to a calculated temperature rise of 1 deg.K (Charney,J. et al,”Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment”, National Academy of Science, Washington D.C., 1979). This increase in global temperature leads to an increase in water vapor if it is assumed that the relative humidity is constant. This ampflication leads to a calculated temperature rise of an additional 2 deg.K. Different arguments as to the effects of the earth’s albido change, clouds, and the oceans also impact the earths global warming with predictions of total temperature rise of as high as 6 deg.K { IPCC,2007 Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Sciences Basis. Contributions of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [ Solomon,S,D. et al (eds)] Cambridge University Press, NY,USA}. Regardless of the other effects, the only way that man can be held responsible for global warming is by CO2 emissions and the resulting increase in the Forcing Function. This paper challenges the magnitude of the 4 W/M2 Forcing Function. The earth radiates in the 4 to 30 micron wavelength range. CO2 has absorption bands in the 4, 10, and 15 micron wavelengths (Hertzberg G. Molecular Spectra & Molecular Structure,Norstrand Co.,1960). McClatchey has tabulated the line stengths for all CO2 transitions and they are used to calculate the atmospheric absorption (McClatchey,R, et al “AFCRL Atmospheric Absorption Line Parameter Compilation”,AFCRL-TR-0096,1973). Detailed calculations of the CO2 line absorption in the 8 to 12 micron atmospheric window shows an increase of 0.3 W/M2 for CO2 doubling. The increase in absorbed fluence in the 12 to 20 micron range is 0.8 W/M2. The increase in the 4 micron band is 0.01 W/M2. (The very strong absorption lines are saturated at CO2 levels of 320 ppm). The total increase in absorbed IR fluence for doubling CO2 is 1.1 W/M2 Detailed calculations of how this absorbed energy heats the earth and what fraction escapes to space must be done for a definitive answer as to what the increase in the Forcing Function is for doubled CO2. Even if all of the absorbed radiation were delivered to the earth, the temperature rise due to doubling CO2 would be 0.26 deg.K. Up to 1/2 the absorbed fluence can be convected/radiated to outer space, which would lead to a temperature rise of 0.13 deg.K. (There is the amplification factor due to increased water vapor that must be added to the direct CO2 contribution but this is also signicantly reduced relative to the 2 deg.K presently accepted). The important difference between the results of this study and the previous predictions, (4W/M2), is probably due to the saturation of the lines which is obscured by band model calculations and is not in the line by line calculations. The conclusion is that man’s contribution to global warming is small.

Controlling factors of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions at the field-scale in an agricultural slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilain, Guillaume; Garnier, Josette; Tallec, Gaëlle; Tournebize, Julien; Cellier, Pierre; Flipo, Nicolas

2010-05-01

Agricultural practices widely contribute to the atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) concentration increase and are the major source of N2O which account for 24% of the global annual emission (IPCC, 2007). Soil nitrification and denitrification are the microbial processes responsible for the production of N2O, which also depends on soil characteristics and management. Besides their control by various factors, such as climate, soil conditions and management (content of NO3- and NH4+, soil water content, presence of degradable organic material…), the role of topography is less known although it can play an important role on N2O emissions (Izaurralde et al., 2004). Due to the scarcity of data on N2O direct vs. indirect emission rate from agriculture in the Seine Basin (Garnier et al., 2009), one of the objectives of the study conducted here was to determine the N2O emission rates of the various land use representative for the Seine Basin, in order to better assess the direct N2O emissions, and to explore controlling factor such as meteorology, topography, soil properties and crop successions. The main objective of this study was at the same time to characterize N2O fluxes variability along a transect from an agricultural plateau to a river and to analyze the influence of landscape position on these emissions. We conducted this study in the Orgeval catchment (Seine basin, France; between 48°47' and 48°55' N, and 03°00' and 03°55' E) from May 2008 to August 2009 on two agricultural fields cropped with wheat, barley, oats, corn. N2O fluxes were monitored from weekly to bimonthly using static manual chambers placed along the chosen transect in five different landscape positions from the plateau to the River. This study has shown that soil moisture (expressed as Water Filled Pore Space) and NO3- soil concentrations explained most of the N2O flux variability during the sampling period. Most of N2O was emitted directly after N fertilization application during a relatively short period of one month. Landscape position strongly affected cumulative N2O emissions which were more than three times higher in footslope position (annual budget of 4 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) than in shoulder (1.1 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) or slope positions (1.1 and 1.2 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1), where soil water contents were higher (mean 68.4% WFPS in footslope position whereas mean WFPS were 50.4 and 60.5% in slope positions and 58% in shoulder position). N2O emissions were relatively low (0.5 kg N-N2O ha-1 yr-1) and did not show much annual variation in unfertilized riparian buffer. Garnier, J., Billen, G., Vilain, G., Martinez, A., Silvestre, M., Mounier, E., & Toche, F., 2009. Nitrous oxide (N2O) in the Seine river and basin: Observations and budgets. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 133, 223-233. IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for Policy Makers, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Izaurralde, R. C., Lemke, R. L., Goddard, T. W., McConkey, B., & Zhang, Z., 2004. Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Toposequences in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Soil Sci Soc Am J 68, 1285-1294.

Improving understanding of controls on spatial variability in methane fluxes in Arctic tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Scott J.; Sloan, Victoria; Phoenix, Gareth; Wagner, Robert; Oechel, Walter; Zona, Donatella

2015-04-01

The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change relative to the rest of the globe, and this increase in temperature has feedback effects across hydrological and thermal regimes, plant community distribution and carbon stocks within tundra soils. Arctic wetlands account for a significant amount of methane emissions from natural ecosystems to the atmosphere and with further permafrost degradation under a warming climate, these emissions are expected to increase. Methane (CH4) is an extremely important component of the global carbon cycle with a global warming potential 28.5 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 100 year time scale (IPCC, 2013). In order to validate carbon cycle models, modelling methane at broader landscape scales is needed. To date direct measurements of methane have been sporadic in time and space which, while capturing some key controls on the spatial heterogeneity, make it difficult to accurately upscale methane emissions to the landscape and regional scales. This study investigates what is controlling the spatial heterogeneity of methane fluxes across Arctic tundra. We combined over 300 portable chamber observations from 13 micro-topographic positions (with multiple vegetation types) across three locations spanning a 300km latitudinal gradient in Northern Alaska from Barrow to Ivotuk with synchronous measurements of environmental (soil temperature, soil moisture, water table, active layer thaw depth, pH) and vegetation (plant community composition, height, sedge tiller counts) variables to evaluate key controls on methane fluxes. To assess the diurnal variation in CH4 fluxes, we also performed automated chamber measurements in one study site (Barrow) location. Multiple statistical approaches (regression tree and multiple linear regression) were used to identify key controlling variables and their interactions. Methane emissions across all sites ranged from -0.08 to 15.3 mg C-CH4 m-2 hr-1. As expected, soil moisture was the main control determining the direction and magnitude of methane flux, with methane emissions occurring in saturated micro-topographic locations and drier sites showing low rates of uptake. An interesting exception was in tussock sedge vegetation, which had a deep water table (approximately 20cm - 40cm below the soil surface) but which emitted methane in comparable quantities to saturated communities late in the growing season. This highlights the importance of plant transport and of understanding temporal variation in fluxes. Automated chamber measurements from peak and late growing season showed minimal diurnal trends in methane fluxes, indicating that short-term chamber measurements are representative of average diurnal CH4 fluxes. The breadth of environmental and vegetation variables measured across a wide spatial extent of arctic tundra vegetation communities within this study highlights the overriding controls on methane emissions and will significantly help with upscaling methane emissions from the plot scale to the landscape scale. Reference: IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO97811074153

Time evolution and emission factors of aerosol particles from day and night time savannah fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakkari, Ville; Beukes, Johan Paul; Tiitta, Petri; Venter, Andrew; Jaars, Kerneels; Josipovic, Miroslav; van Zyl, Pieter; Kulmala, Markku; Laakso, Lauri

2013-04-01

The largest uncertainties in the current global climate models originate from aerosol particle effects (IPCC, 2007) and at the same time aerosol particles also pose a threat to human health (Pope and Dockery, 2006). In southern Africa wild fires and prescribed burning are one of the most important sources of aerosol particles, especially during the dry season from June to September (e.g. Swap et al., 2003; Vakkari et al., 2012). The aerosol particle emissions from savannah fires in southern Africa have been studied in several intensive campaigns such as SAFARI 1992 and 2000 (Swap et al., 2003). However, all previous measurements have been carried out during the daytime, whereas most of the prescribed fires in southern Africa are lit up only after sunset. Furthermore, the previous campaigns followed the plume evolution for up to one hour after emission only. In this study, combining remote sensing fire observations to ground-based long-term measurements of aerosol particle and trace gas properties at the Welgegund measurement station (www.welgegund.org), we have been able to follow the time evolution of savannah fire plumes up to several hours in the atmosphere. For the first time the aerosol particle size distribution measurements in savannah fire plumes cover both day and night time plumes and also the ultrafine size range below 100 nm. During the period from May 20th 2010 to April 15th 2012 altogether 61 savannah fire plumes were observed at Welgegund. The evolution of the aerosol size distribution remained rapid for at least five hours after the fire: during this period the growth rate of the aerosol particle count mean diameter (size range 12 to 840 nm) was 24 nm h-1 for daytime plumes and 8 nm h-1 for night time plumes. The difference in the day and night time growth rate shows that photochemical reactions significantly increase the condensable vapour concentration in the plume. Furthermore, the condensable vapour concentration was found to affect both the number and size of particles larger than 100 nm; if this is not accounted for the current emission factors may underestimate the CCN-sized particle yield from savannah fires by a factor of two to three. Acknowledgements This research was supported by the Academy of Finland under the project Atmospheric monitoring capacity building in Southern Africa (project number 132640), by the Saastamoinen säätiö, by the North-West University and by the Academy of Finland Center of Excellence program (project number 1118615). References IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. Pope, C. A., and Dockery, D. W.: Health effects of fine particulate air pollution: lines that connect, J Air Waste Manag. Assoc., 56, 709-742, 2006. Swap, R. J., Annegarn, H. J., Suttles, J. T., King, M. D., Platnick, S., Privette, J. L., and Scholes, R. J.: Africa burning: A thematic analysis of the Southern African Regional Science Initiative (SAFARI 2000), J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8465, doi:10.1029/2003JD003747, 2003. Vakkari, V., Beukes, J. P., Laakso, H., Mabaso, D., Pienaar, J. J., Kulmala, M., and Laakso, L.: Long-term observations of aerosol size distributions in semi-clean and polluted savannah in South Africa, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 24043-24093, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-24043-2012, 2012.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Technical fixes and Climate Change: Optimizing for Risks and Consequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.

2010-09-16

Scientists and society in general are becoming increasingly concerned about the risks of climate change from the emission of greenhouse gases [IPCC, 2007]. Yet emissions continue to increase [Raupach et al., 2007], and reductions soon enough to avoid large and undesirable impacts requires a near revolutionary global transformation of energy and transportation systems [Hoffert et al., 1998]. The size of the transformation and lack of an effective societal response has motivated some to explore other quite controversial strategies to mitigate some of the planetary consequences of these emissions.

Engage in the Arctic Now or Risk Being Left Out in the Cold: Establishing a JIATF-High North

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-03

Qin, M. Manning, Z . Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, eds., IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis...article, that “China has sent research vessels to the frozen north. A Chinese research ship, Snow Dragon , paid a surprise visit to Tuktoyuktuk in 1999 [a...with the Arctic Council. The ball has already begun rolling as other nations explore the methods that they will use to secure their interests in the

Toward server-side, high performance climate change data analytics in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) eco-system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Sandro; Williams, Dean; Aloisio, Giovanni

2016-04-01

In many scientific domains such as climate, data is often n-dimensional and requires tools that support specialized data types and primitives to be properly stored, accessed, analysed and visualized. Moreover, new challenges arise in large-scale scenarios and eco-systems where petabytes (PB) of data can be available and data can be distributed and/or replicated (e.g., the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) serving the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, providing access to 2.5PB of data for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Most of the tools currently available for scientific data analysis in the climate domain fail at large scale since they: (1) are desktop based and need the data locally; (2) are sequential, so do not benefit from available multicore/parallel machines; (3) do not provide declarative languages to express scientific data analysis tasks; (4) are domain-specific, which ties their adoption to a specific domain; and (5) do not provide a workflow support, to enable the definition of complex "experiments". The Ophidia project aims at facing most of the challenges highlighted above by providing a big data analytics framework for eScience. Ophidia provides declarative, server-side, and parallel data analysis, jointly with an internal storage model able to efficiently deal with multidimensional data and a hierarchical data organization to manage large data volumes ("datacubes"). The project relies on a strong background of high performance database management and OLAP systems to manage large scientific data sets. It also provides a native workflow management support, to define processing chains and workflows with tens to hundreds of data analytics operators to build real scientific use cases. With regard to interoperability aspects, the talk will present the contribution provided both to the RDA Working Group on Array Databases, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Compute Working Team. Also highlighted will be the results of large scale climate model intercomparison data analysis experiments, for example: (1) defined in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project; (2) implemented in a real geographically distributed environment involving CMCC (Italy) and LLNL (US) sites; (3) exploiting Ophidia as server-side, parallel analytics engine; and (4) applied on real CMIP5 data sets available through ESGF.

Improving and assessing vapour pressure estimation methods for organic compounds of atmospheric relevance using a Knudsen Effusion Mass Spectrometer (KEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, A. M.; Topping, D. O.; McFiggans, G. B.; Garforth, A.; Percival, C. J.

2009-12-01

Aerosol particles influence climate directly through the scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly through their role as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Traditionally, models aiming to capture the behaviour of aerosols in the atmosphere have concentrated on the role of inorganic compounds. However, organic components, covering a huge range of chemical and physical properties (Jacobson et.al., 2000), may constitute a significant fraction depending on location (Houghton et.al., 2001). Knowledge of pure component vapour pressures is essential for calculations of gas/particle partitioning. There are many methods of estimating vapour pressures but most of the experimental data collected to date has been for intermediate or high pressure compounds (and often measured at temperatures considerably above ambient) and the proportion of experimental data for low (less than 100Pa) vapour pressure compounds has been very small. Hence the datasets used for developing the estimation methods have reflected this bias in addition to the fact that components studied tend to have one or two functional groups at the most. Thus it is unsurprising that some of the estimation methods can give errors in vapour pressure of several orders of magnitude for multifunctional compounds at ambient temperatures. Knudsen Effusion Mass Spectrometer (KEMS) has been used to measure solid state vapour pressures for multifunctional organic compounds based on dicarboxylic acids (Booth et al 2009). In the atmosphere these compounds are likely to exist in the sub-cooled state so Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was used to obtain thermochemical data to effect a correction between solid and sub-cooled vapour pressures. The group contribution method of Nanoolal and co-workers (Nanoolal et al., 2008) is one of the best predictive methods in terms of reproducing available low volatility vapour pressure data (barley et al., 2009). The Nanoolal method relies on the use of primary and secondary functional groups and interaction parameters, derived from experimental data, to reliably predict boiling points and vapour pressures. A sensitivity study was undertaken to establish the impact of the new experimentally determined vapour pressures on partitioning models. Jacobson, M.C., et al. Rev Geophys, 38 (2), 267-294, 2000. Houghton et al. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC., 881 pp., Cambridge University Press, 2001. Johnson, D. , et al. Atmo. Chem. Phys., Vol. 6, 419-431, 2006 Yu, J. Z., et al. J Atmos Chem. 34, 207-258, 1999 Booth, A.M. et al Atmos. Meas. Tech.,2,355-361, 2009 Nanoolal, Y. et al Fluid Phase Equilibria, 269,117-133., 2008. Barley, M. et al Atmos. Chem. Phys., -,to be submitted.

Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan

2012-06-01

Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon, experts are increasingly looking at its potential impacts on coasts to facilitate local adaptation planning. This is a more complex issue than one might think, because different stretches of coast can be affected in very different ways. First of all, the sea-level response to global warming will not be globally uniform, since factors like changes in ocean currents (Levermann et al 2005) and the changing gravitational pull of continental ice (Mitrovica et al 2001) affect the local rise. Secondly, superimposed on the climatic trend is natural variability in sea level, which regionally can be as large as the climatic signal on multi-decadal timescales. Over the past decades, sea level has dropped in sizable parts of the world ocean, although it has of course risen in global mean (IPCC 2007). Thirdly, local land uplift or subsidence affects the local sea-level change relative to the coast, both for natural reasons (post-glacial isostatic adjustment centred on regions that were covered by ice sheets during the last ice age) and artificial ones (e.g., extraction of water or oil as in the Gulf of Mexico). Finally, local vulnerability to sea-level rise depends on many factors. Two interesting new studies in this journal (Tebaldi et al 2012, Strauss et al 2012) make important steps towards understanding sea-level vulnerability along the coasts of the United States, with methods that could also be applied elsewhere. The first, by Strauss and colleagues, merges high-resolution topographic data and a newly available tidal model together with population and housing data in order to estimate what land area and population would be at risk given certain increments in sea level. The results are mapped and tabulated at county and city level. They reveal the 'hot spots' along the US coast where sea-level rise is of the highest concern because of large populations living near the high-tide line: New York City and Long Island; the New Jersey shore; the Norfolk, Virginia, area; near Charleston, South Carolina; coastal cities across Florida, especially its southeast and the Tampa area; New Orleans; the San Francisco Bay Area and San Joaquin Delta; and greater Los Angeles. Overall, 3.7 million people across the US are estimated to live within 1 m of the present high-tide line. The second paper, by Tebaldi et al, specifically looks at storm surges and how their frequency is expected to change along the US coastline in the coming four decades due to rising sea levels. They first estimate future local sea-level rise relative to the land by combining the observed local trend of the past fifty years with a future acceleration due to global warming as estimated by a semi-empirical model (Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009). Then they use past storm surge statistics for many different locations and shift the return level curves according to the projected sea-level rise. The authors find that by mid-century, in some locations what is now a once-per-century flooding event could become an annual event. Those are exceptional places—but at about a third of the sites investigated, a century flood could become a once-per-decade flood. Of course, many of these events need not have dramatic impacts: in fact, locations where rare floods are quite small in amplitude (and hence presumably modest in their impacts) are precisely those where the return period decreases most dramatically. In a place where the once-per-century flood is only 50 cm higher than the annual flood, a typical 30 cm rise in sea level makes a bigger difference than one in a place where the century flood is 2 m higher than the annual flood. Nevertheless, the expected large changes in return periods and return levels of storm surges clearly demonstrate that accounting for accelerating sea-level rise is vital in the planning and design of coastal infrastructure. But most importantly, these studies highlight the fact that the modern world, with many millions of people living right by the coast, is highly vulnerable to even modest sea-level rise. Losing just 1% of the present continental ice would raise sea level globally by about 75 cm—a tiny amount in the perspective of palaeoclimate history, e.g. the 120 m rise at the end of the last ice age, but a large amount in terms of impacts on human society. We should do everything we can to limit global warming and thereby sea-level rise to a manageable level. References Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (Oslo: AMAP) Church J A and White N J 2006 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L01602 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon et al (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Levermann A, Griesel A, Hofmann M, Montoya M and Rahmstorf S 2005 Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation Clim. Dyn. 24 347-54 Mitrovica J X, Tamisiea M E, Davis J L and Milne G A 2001 Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change Nature 409 1026-9 Rahmstorf S, Cazenave A, Church J A, Hansen J E, Keeling R F, Parker D E and Somerville C J 2007 Recent climate observations compared to projections Science 316 709 Rahmstorf S, Perrette M and Vermeer M 2011 Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections Clim. Dyn. at press (doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1226-7) Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009 Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment (Cambridge: Scott Polar Research Institute) Strauss B, Ziemlinski R, Weiss J and Overpeck J T 2012 Tidally-adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014033 Tebaldi C, Strauss B and Zervas C 2012 Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Environ. Res. Lett. 7 014032 US Army Corps of Engineers 2011 Sea-Level Change Considerations for Civil Works Programs (Washington, DC: Department of the Army) Van den Broeke M R, Bamber J, Lenaerts J and Rignot E 2011 Ice sheets and sea level: thinking outside the box Sur. Geophys. 32 495-505 Vellinga P, Katsman C A, Sterl A and Beersma J J 2009 Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands International Scientific Assessment Carried out at the Request of the Delta Committee (De Bilt: KNMI) Vermeer M and Rahmstorf S 2009 Global sea level linked to global temperature Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106 21527-32

Creating Near-Term Climate Scenarios for AgMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, L.; Greene, A. M.; Baethgen, W.

2012-12-01

For the next assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), attention is being given to development of climate information that is appropriate for adaptation, such as decadal-scale and near-term predictions intended to capture the combined effects of natural climate variability and the emerging climate change signal. While the science and practice evolve for the production and use of dynamic decadal prediction, information relevant to agricultural decision-makers can be gained from analysis of past decadal-scale trends and variability. Statistical approaches that mimic the characteristics of observed year-to-year variability can indicate the range of possibilities and their likelihood. In this talk we present work towards development of near-term climate scenarios, which are needed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in the regions in current decision-making. The work includes analyses of decadal-scale variability and trends in the AgMIP regions, and statistical approaches that capture year-to-year variability and the associated persistence of wet and dry years. We will outline the general methodology and some of the specific considerations in the regional application of the methodology for different AgMIP regions, such those for Western Africa versus southern Africa. We will also show some examples of quality checks and informational summaries of the generated data, including (1) metrics of information quality such as probabilistic reliability for a suite of relevant climate variables and indices important for agriculture; (2) quality checks relative to the use of this climate data in crop models; and, (3) summary statistics (e.g., for 5-10-year periods or across given spatial scales).

Whole farm quantification of GHG emissions within smallholder farms in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seebauer, Matthias

2014-03-01

The IPCC has compiled the best available scientific methods into published guidelines for estimating greenhouse gas emissions and emission removals from the land-use sector. In order to evaluate existing GHG quantification tools to comprehensively quantify GHG emissions and removals in smallholder conditions, farm scale quantification was tested with farm data from Western Kenya. After conducting a cluster analysis to identify different farm typologies GHG quantification was exercised using the VCS SALM methodology complemented with IPCC livestock emission factors and the cool farm tool. The emission profiles of four farm clusters representing the baseline conditions in the year 2009 are compared with 2011 where farmers adopted sustainable land management practices (SALM). The results demonstrate the variation in both the magnitude of the estimated GHG emissions per ha between different smallholder farm typologies and the emissions estimated by applying two different accounting tools. The farm scale quantification further shows that the adoption of SALM has a significant impact on emission reduction and removals and the mitigation benefits range between 4 and 6.5 tCO2 ha-1 yr-1 with significantly different mitigation benefits depending on typologies of the crop-livestock systems, their different agricultural practices, as well as adoption rates of improved practices. However, the inherent uncertainty related to the emission factors applied by accounting tools has substantial implications for reported agricultural emissions. With regard to uncertainty related to activity data, the assessment confirms the high variability within different farm types as well as between different parameters surveyed to comprehensively quantify GHG emissions within smallholder farms.